Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +6.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Falcons are obviously much improved this year but this is an absolute terrible situation for them. If there was ever a game they wouldn’t show up or take at least a little lightly this would be it. The Falcons have played a ridiculously tough schedule over the last 3 weeks. They beat Carolina (division rival) at home, then traveled to Denver to get a win, and finally they went back to the west coast last week and lost a tight one @ Seattle. On top of that, they host Green Bay next weekend. In hindsight, while impressive, the Falcons 3 game stretch isn’t quite what we thought. Their win over Carolina looked great but the Panthers now only have one win on the season. They beat Denver which was solid, but Denver has since lost to this San Diego team as well. The Chargers are much better than their 2-4 record. They’ve led in the 4th quarter of every game this year and their loss margins have been by 6 in OT, 4, 3, and 1 point. Add to that the fact that the Bolts beat Denver last Thursday so they’ve had a full 10 days to rest and get ready for this road game. On the other hand, Atlanta is now home but they’ve been on the road 4 of the previous 5 weeks so they have to be a bit leg weary. This game is a late 4:05 PM ET start which also benefits San Diego going west to east. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this year and 20-9 ATS their last 29 in that situation. We’ll call for a tight game and wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Chargers win outright here. |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Fins are home for the 3rd straight week while Buffalo is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Miami finally got healthy on their offensive line last week and it showed with a 30-15 win over Pittsburgh. Beating one of the AFC favorites that handily was impressive and while QB Roethlisberger was injured, it was late in the game when Miami was in full control. The Dolphins put together an impressive offensive game with 474 total yards while holding the potent Pitt offense to just 297 yards. Most wouldn’t know it but Miami’s offense is putting up 6 YPP which is the 5th best mark in the NFL. Buffalo is 4-2 on the season but they’ve been outgained in 4 of those 6 games. They’ve been getting it done on the ground with LeSean McCoy rolling up 290 yards rushing and 3 TD’s the last 2 games. Problem is, McCoy is now injured with a bad hammy and may not play here. Even if he does, he’s not 100% and his explosiveness will be limited. That takes the biggest threat away from the Bills offense. Buffalo has won 4 straight but we are not yet overly impressed. They beat Arizona at home but were outgained and the Cards had a whopping 5 turnovers. Then they beat New England with the Pats playing a rookie QB. Then it was the “offenseless” Rams a game Buffalo was again outgained but benefitted from a pick 6. Last week at home vs San Fran who lost RB Hyde which was their top threat for an already poor offense. Now the Bills have a huge game with New England on deck and we think they are ripe for the picking. Miami wins this one. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas +10.5 v. Auburn | Top | 3-56 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Auburn Tigers Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #401 |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY JETS (+) over Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:25PM ET - The value lies with the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals and we'll grab the points. New York is off three straight losses and are in desperation mode at 1-4 SU on the year while the Cards got a little reprieve after a win over the 49ers last week. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule to date after facing: Steelers, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs and Bengals who have a combined 17-11 record. Arizona has faced: 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bucs and Pats (without Brady @ home and loss) who are 15-14 on the year. The Cards will go back to starting QB Carson Palmer tonight but is that necessarily a good thing? Palmer has struggled throwing the football this year and currently sits 26th in the NFL among starting quarterbacks in QBR rating at 51.2. Palmer has thrown just 6 TD's to 5 INT' on the year. Yes, the Jets secondary has been torched this season but they've also faced 2 QB's that are top 7 in total passing yards (Dalton and Roethlisberger) and Russell Wilson who has a 97.2 QBR and is 12th in completion percentage. What the Jets do REALLY well defensively is stop the run. Arizona's RB David Johnson (5th in the league in rushing) will have a hard time finding room to run against the Jet's defensive front. Turnovers have killed the Jets this season but Arizona isn't much better at taking care of the football. The Jets average 2.6 giveaways per game but the Cards average 2.0. The Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home when laying a TD or more. Grab the points with the Jets. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -2.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET This line on this game is a steal with a way better Texans team at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are off a loss last Sunday (4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss) while the Colts are off a come from behind win. Indy trailed the Bears late last week before pulling out a win and were outgained by 126 total yards in that game. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 410.6YPG. Houston on the other hand ranks 6th in total D allowing 110 less yards per game than the Colts do. Indianapolis allows 6.5 yards per play overall defensively which is 31st in the league while the Texans allow just 4.9YPPL which is 7th best in the NFL. The Titans have outgained 4 of their five opponents this season and their two losses have come to the Vikings and Patriots who are a combined 9-1. Houston’s foes this year have a combined record of 15-10 while the Colts have wins over the Chargers and Bears and their opponents on the season have a 10-17 overall record. Even without JJ Watt the Texans defense will get to Luck as the Colts O-line is again one of the worst in the NFL (allowing 4 sacks per game – last in the league). After facing a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league the Texans find plenty of opportunities here. |
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10-15-16 | Tulsa +21.5 v. Houston | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Houston Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #159 |
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10-09-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +3.5 over Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET Both of these teams are just 1-3 but Tennessee is showing signs of being a much improved team while the Dolphins could easily be 0-4. The Titans have been outgained by 13 total yards on the season. Their running game is among the best in the NFL averaging 127 YPG (4th in the NFL) on 4.7 YPC (3rd in the NFL). Their offensive line is massive improved and ranks as one of the top 10 O-Lines in the NFL (Football Outsiders). That’s bad news for a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense allowing 130 YPG on the ground (29th in the NFL). The Titans have shown signs of life even in their losses. They had an undefeated Minnesota team down 10-0 at half and held the Vikings without an offensive TD but somehow lost. They outgained Oakland in a 17-10 loss. Last week they were tied with @ Houston 20-20 in the 2nd half in a close loss. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been outgained by every team they’ve faced this season including their lone win in OT at home against a bad Cleveland team. Miami has been outgained by 188 yards on the season and this team should probably actually be winless. The Fins have been horrendous as a home favorite going just 13-43 ATS their last 56 in that situation. Also tough to lay points with a Miami team that has topped 20 points only 3 times in their last 14 games. We think Tennessee has a great shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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10-08-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #407 |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ARIZONA CARDINALS: This might be your last shot to get great value with the Cardinals who were picked by many experts (not ASA) to represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. It has obviously been a disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals (1-3) after going 13-3 in the regular season a year ago in winning the NFC West. So this week we get them as a small favorite on the road with the line being lower than normal because they will be without starting QB Carson Palmer. But is that necessarily a bad thing? After throwing 35 TD to just 11INT's a year ago, Palmer has not looked good so far this year with just 6 TD's to 5 INT's while completing just 58.5% of his passing attempts. Granted, QB Drew Stanton looked awful in his short relief appearance last week against the Rams but now he's gotten extra reps all week with an opportunity to prepare for the starting job. But we don't expect Stanton to be put in a position to carry the Cardinals this week, he'll just have to manage the game and hand the ball off to RB David Johnson. Johnson leads the NFL in all-purpose yards and is 7th in rushing yards (300yds) at 4.7 yards per carry. That is significant here as the Niners are 22nd worst in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowing 4.3 yards per carry and LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game at 140+. Another key factor in this matchup is the loss of LB NaVorro Bowman for the 49ers who has 236 tackles the past two seasons. Arizona is 7th in the NFL in total offense compared to San Fran's 30th overall rankings, are better defensively (8th total D versus SF #26th) and backed into a corner this early in the season. Let's not forget this Cards team was 7-1 SU last year on the road and are 12-2 ATS their last fourteen roadies against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona also has some impressive backing when coming off a spread loss and it all adds up to a win here even without their starting QB. Lay it! |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Vikes sit at 3-0 on the season despite scoring only 3 offensive TD’s the entire season. While we understand their defense is very good, this team needs to start putting some offensive numbers up or they will start losing some games. We think their first loss comes tonight. The Giants have a big edge offensively. They are averaging 6.5 yards per play while the Vikes are averaging just 4.8 yards per play. New York is off a home loss vs Washington and this team has the best road spread record in the NFL since the start of the 2007 season at 44-30-2 ATS. The Giants will have some extra motivation tonight as well after getting whipped by Minny last year 49-17. The game wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate. The Vikings outgained the Giants by just 5 yards in the game despite running 11 more offensive plays. Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions while Minny did not have a turnover. Due to the turnovers Minnesota scored on a pick 6 and had TD drives of 4 yards and 18 yards. The game snowballed out of control and NY just couldn’t get back into it. Let’s face it, Minnesota is 3-0 but they’ve been outgained by an average of 30 YPG this season. They average only 265 YPG on offense (last in the NFL) and with Adrian Peterson out along with starting LT Kalil, we don’t look for them to light up a Giant defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense. The Giants are 2-1 but they have a +57 YPG differential on the season. They are far superior offensively, as we’ve stated, and while Minny’s defense is better, it’s not by a wide margin. We’ll call for the Giants to win a close game tonight. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4 | Top | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4 over KC, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Steelers will be in a foul mood here after getting embarrassed at Philly last week. The potent Pitt offense was only able to put up 3 points in that game. Expect a much better effort this week at home on Sunday Night. We are not sold on KC. They’re games have gone as follows…A come from WAY behind (down 24-3) overtime win at home against a middle of the pack San Diego team, a 7-point loss @ Houston, and a home win over the Jets last week helped by New York’s EIGHT, yes EIGHT turnovers. The struggling KC offense has scored only 22 points the last 2 weeks (subtracting defensive TD). They’ve scored a total of ONE offensive TD the last 2 games. We think it will be for them to keep up with the Steelers offense that will come out angry this week. Not only are the Steelers coming off a terrible effort last week, they also remember last year’s trip to KC where they lost 23-13 in QB Landry Jones first start of his career (Big Ben was injured). Pitt RB Le’veon Bell ran for 117 yards in that game and he is back from suspension this week. Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home when coming off an outright loss. We expect the Steeler to win this game at home and when they win at home, they usually control the game. Of Pittsburgh’s last 17 home wins, 15 have come by at least a TD. The Pitt offense rolls this week and the Chiefs can’t keep up. Lay it with the Steelers. |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +1.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a terrible match up for Seattle in our opinion. First of all, you have an angry Jets team that was smoked last Sunday @ KC. The Chiefs won 24-3 but only scored 10 points on offense and were basically given the game by Jet QB Fitzpatrick who threw 6 interceptions. NY had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game. Expect a big bounce back at home this week. Seattle won a home game against a tired SF team that had played on the east coast a week earlier. QB Russell Wilson came into the game banged up and then injured his ankle. Even if he plays here he will not be at 100%. That’s a key in this game as we expect the Jets defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. Seattle’s offensive line is bad. They have 4 new starters from last year and they are already banged up on the line. With Wilson’s mobility compromised, this could be a long day for the Seattle offense. Similar to when they traveled to LA to face the Rams a few weeks ago, who also have a solid defensive line, and lost 9-3. If Wilson doesn’t play, which he may not, the Seahawks will go with rookie Trevon Boykin. Long travel to the east coast and an early start time don’t favor the Hawks here. This is a huge game for the Jets who are 1-2 on the season. Seattle has played the Dolphins, Rams, and Niners so far which is lower level NFL competition. They lost one of those games and struggled to get by Miami at home. New York has played Cincy, Buffalo, and KC, two of which were playoff teams last year. Anytime we get a potential mismatch in the trenches with an underdog, we have to take a long look. Take the Jets. |
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10-01-16 | Utah v. California -2.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California (-) over Utah, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #184 |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are now 0-2 and backed into a must win corner. We felt they would be improved this year and their stats in the first two games were actually solid. They outgained Green Bay and had a chance to win late but lost a tight one. After that emotional setback, Jacksonville had to travel cross country to San Diego last Sunday. They laid an egg getting whipped 38-14. However they did outgain San Diego with some offensive movement late in the game but 3 turnovers and a flat as a pancake showing did them in. We expect them to play much better this week and they get one of their top offensive weapons back at RB Ivory is expected to make his season debut. Baltimore is 2-0 and this game isn’t nearly as important to them. Let’s face it. The Ravens are undefeated but have played two of the worst teams in the NFL and have not looked dominant in either game. They topped Buffalo 13-7 at home and then had to come from behind to win @ Cleveland last week. The Browns just out to a 20-2 lead in the first quarter and then proceeded to lay an egg and score zippo the rest of the way and Baltimore won 25-20. The Ravens are on the road for the 2nd straight week and since 2012 this team has just a 9-16 record away from home. Jags are the play here. |
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09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We swallowed the point last week with the Panthers over the 49ers and it turned out pretty well for us with Carolina winning 46-27 as a 13-point chalk. The Panthers dominated that game with +10 first downs, 430 yards of total O and a +12 minute time of possession edge. Now the Panthers should be focused on a Minnesota team that is 2-0 and the defending NFC North Champs. But we're not sold on the Vikings and have found some holes or chinks in their armor. They stand 2-0 with wins over the Tennessee Titans who had just 3 wins last year and a Green Bay team that is just 6-8 SU their last 14 games dating back to last season. In two games this year the Vikings have less than 100 total yards of rushing and are now without RB Adrian Peterson for the year. Minnesota was outgained in the opener by the Titans and barely outgained the Packers last week in their grand opening of their new stadium. Carolina has one of the best offenses in the NFL and have way too many great statistical rankings to list here (OK, we'll give a few: #2 in 3rd down conversions, 1st scoring 33PPG, 5th points per play, 3rd yards per game at 431). While the Vikings are one dimensional offensively right now and over-rated defensively based on the fact they've benefitted from 6 turnovers in the first two games of the season. In terms of 'O' the Vikes are 28th worst in yards per game at 292, 26th in yards per play, last in rushing and 17th in scoring offense at 21PPG. Carolina has won 14 straight home games and are 11-5 their last 16 as a home chalk. Lay the points with the Panthers. |
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09-24-16 | Washington -12 v. Arizona | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -112 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington (-) over Arizona, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET We’ll gladly fade the rookie QB Carson Wentz making the first road start of his career AND on Monday Night! Wentz looked solid last week in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field. And let’s not forget they were facing the hapless Cleveland Browns who some experts predict will be the worst NFL team in years. We were actually on Cleveland last week and if they can’t show up and play well (they didn’t) against an average team with a rookie QB, we agree the Browns are now officially in big trouble. Back to this game…Chicago battled Houston, a playoff team from last year, fairly well last week on the road. The Bears led entering the 4th quarter before falling 23-14. That loss makes this a huge home game for them especially with another road game on deck @ Dallas next week. Despite the loss last week, head coach John Fox has proven he can turn teams around quickly and we expect Chicago to be much improved. Fox took over Carolina in 2002 and went 7-9 his first year followed up by 11-5 in year 2. He then took over Denver in 2011 and went just 8-8 but followed that up with a 13-3 mark in his second season. It’s now his 2nd season in Chicago. Versus a rookie coach and rookie QB we look for Fox and the Bears to pick up a must win at home on Monday night. Lay it. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -13 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re not into laying huge numbers in the NFL very often, however if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it and we will. The Panthers obviously have Super Bowl aspirations and with their opening week loss @ Denver, they can’t afford to lose this one. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this game as well having played on their opener on Thursday. San Fran, on the other hand, had to play on Monday night and looked very good in their 28-0 win. Now on a short week they have to travel to the east coast to face one of the top teams in the NFL. We saw a similar situation last year when the Niners opened on Monday night with a home win over Minnesota and then had to travel to Pittsburgh in week 2. The result of that game? Steelers 43, Niners 18. The San Francisco defense looked good shutting down the Rams horrendous offense. It will be a different story this week facing a Carolina offense that led the league in scoring last year at 31 PPG. Offensively, the Niners have one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL behind QB Gabbert. They must run the ball well to be successful. They did just that vs the Rams but now face a rested and angry Carolina defense that didn’t play well in week 1 with Denver running the ball very well. That’s the same Panther defense that allowed only 86 YPG rushing last year (4th in the NFL) so you can bet they’ll be ready here. If SF gets down big, which we predict they will, they have very little “come back” ability. This game has 28-7 or 35-10 written all over it. Carolina in a blowout. |
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09-18-16 | Saints +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +4.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re surprised to see the Giants as such a hefty favorite here. We were on the GMen last week vs the Cowboys and got a push, however we weren’t fairly underwhelmed with their performance. They were playing a Dallas team starting a rookie QB and needed a late TD (6:00 minutes remaining) to get a 1-point win. On top of that the Giants had fewer first downs and less yardage. Not very impressive. Now off an important division win we can see this one as not being quite as important as it is to the Saints. That’s because New Orleans lost at home 35-34 to the Raiders who scored late and went for 2 to get the win. The Saints blew a 14 point 3rd quarter lead but had more first downs and outgained Oakland. Drew Brees was fantastic throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD’s. We expect him to have a huge day against a New York defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards last week. This one is probably going to be a shootout with the total set a 53. Even if New Orleans gets behind, they are not out of this one with their potent offense. Their “back door ability” if they do get behind has to be taken into account as well. The Giants haven’t had a great home field advantage as they’ve won only 4 of their last 13 games here. We look for this one to go to the wire and we’ll grab the generous points. |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Rotation #174 - 10* TOP Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET: Oklahoma State certainly struggled last week hosting Central Michigan and, as a 20 point favorite, that certainly should not have happened. However, even with a game not played well, the Cowboys still should have won the game by a 27-24 count. Oklahoma State had the ball and was running the clock out when an intentional grounding penalty on fourth down resulted and the referees ended up making a mistake as they allowed the Chippewas to have down (ball was around midfield) even though the clock was at zero. By rule, the game truly should have already been over. However, the fact is that a mistake was made and, Central Michigan ended up with an unbelievable win when they completed a hail mary pass that was short of the end zone but then was lateraled for the game-winning touchdown. The Cowboys know they gave a poor effort last week but they also know they didn't deserve to lose the game. Coach Mike Gundy is in his 12th year with Oklahoma State and, as such, he is veteran presence for a team that also came into this season with plenty of returning talent. OSU returned 16 starters from last year and also returned a total of 38 players that were on the two-deep bowl roster. This type of experienced team is going to come out fighting hard this week after what happened last week. It is a mature group both physically and mentally and the Cowboys won 10 games last year and are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time too. The Panthers are off of an in-state rivalry win over Penn State and now are traveling to face a talented Big 12 team. Pitt hasn't had to travel to face a Big 12 school in over 10 years and this is truly a tough travel spot considering the Panthers have their ACC opener on deck. While it is true that Oklahoma State also has their conference opener on deck, the Cowboys scheduling spot is much easier as they are playing their 3rd straight home game to open up the season. The Cowboys have a bit of an "us against the world" attitude this week and they have resolved to put last week's loss behind them by coming out with an "A game" effort that should leave no doubt on the scoreboard. Even with last week's loss, Oklahoma State is on a 27-14 ATS run as a home favorite against FBS schools. The Panthers season opener this year was against an FCS school so Pittsburgh is getting their first truly tough test on the road this week. The Panthers relied heavily on their ground game to get past Penn State last week but Oklahoma State is allowing only 2.1 yards per carry so far this season. In terms of the aerial attacks of these two teams there truly is no comparison as the Cowboys were 7th in the nation last year with 353 passing yards per game while Pitt was 99th with only 190.6 yards per game through the air. The Panthers will want to control the trenches and get their ground game going but the Cowboys have been strong against the run as noted above and also are going to be extremely physical in this game at the line of scrimmage because this team is extremely fired up after taking the ultimate unthinkable loss last week. Pitt is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look for home domination in Stillwater, OK Saturday afternoon. |
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09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets -1 over Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS Both teams are 0-1 so the desperation will be alive for each. With that being said, if both bring their “A” games, the Jets are simply the better team. The Bills offense looked horrendous against a decent but not great Baltimore defense. Buffalo had only 160 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play. They crossed midfield only TWICE the enter game. Now they face a Jets defense that ranked 5th in the NFL last season and looked very solid against a potent Bengal offense last week. Meanwhile the Jets offense looked solid scoring 22 points on 5.2 YPP vs a very good Cincy defense. The Bengals kicked a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining to pick up the 23-22 win. The flyboys scored on 3 of their 5 first half possessions and had a 22 yard FG blocked on one of this first half drives. The Jets will have a little extra motivation here as well as they lost both meetings last year by the same exact 22-17 score. A closer look reveals that New York actually outplayed Buffalo and turnovers were the difference (as they are in most NFL games). In the two games combined, the Jets had 30 first downs (to 31 for Buffalo), 618 yards (to 575 for Buffalo), 5.4 yards per play (to 4.2 YPPG for Buffalo), and a whopping 7 turnovers for the Jets (just 1 for Buffalo). Even with that turnover disparity, the Jets had the ball deep in Buffalo territory late the game with a chance to win. In BOTH games. Where the line sits we basically have to pick the winner and we think that will be the better team – J-E-T-S! |
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09-12-16 | Steelers -3 v. Redskins | Top | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Washington, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET The Redskins won the terrible NFC East by default last year despite getting outgained by an average of 28 YPG which ranked them 23rd in the NFL in that category. The NFC Least was terrible in 2015 with the 3 other teams (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) combining for a 17-31 record. Somebody had to win it, right? That was the Skins who had, by far, the worst point differential of all the NFL playoff teams at +9 for the entire season. There were 13 teams that had better point differentials than Washington and 22 teams that had better YPG differential. They didn’t beat a winning team all last season. While this was a playoff team last year by definition, they really weren’t good enough to be in the post-season and that was proven when wildcard team GB went into Washington and smoked the Skins 35-18 to quickly knock them out. The Steelers are the MUCH better team here. They were +45 YPG better than Washington offensively last year, +95 better in overall point differential and gave up 17 fewer YPG. Pitt is far superior at QB with Roethlisberger vs Cousins and they also have the top WR in the NFL in Antonio Brown. While RB Bell is out in this game, his back up DeAngelo Williams rushed for almost 1,000 yards last year so very little drop off there. While Washington really didn’t deserve their post-season berth last year, the Steelers beat Cincy on the road and then outplayed eventual Super Bowl Champion Denver on the road in a 23-16 loss outgaining the Broncs by 72 yards. Pitt put up almost 400 yards on a Bronco defense that allowed just 283 on the season. Now this potent Steeler offense faces a Washington D that finished 28th in YPG allowed last year. We’ll gladly lay the 3 points in this spot and take Pittsburgh. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +6.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We realize Brady will be in street clothes watching this one and because of that this spread is set too high. Give Belichick nearly a full TD and ample time to prepare and we have a very dangerous dog here. Belichick took over as the Pats head coach in 2000 and New England has been an underdog 67 times in that span. They are 44-22-1 ATS in those games. If they are getting 6 points or more (they are currently +6) his Patriot team is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 7 of those being outright wins. You can bet Belichick will have a great game plan going into this one. Brady’s replacement, Jimmy Garappolo, looked solid in the pre-season and as long as he doesn’t make huge mistakes, New England has a chance to win this one outright. He has the top TE combo in the NFL as targets with Marcellus Bennett teaming up with Gronk (he is ? here) this year. Arizona looked absolutely terrible in the pre-season and the scary part is, even in game 3 when the starters played extensively, they were whipped by Houston and the starters only put up 10 points in the first half. QB Carson Palmer threw 2 picks and didn’t look good. The starting defense gave up 31 points in the first half of that game @ Houston. Arizona is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year but we think they might be a bit over valued entering the season. Laying nearly a TD to New England is too high. The Pats will keep this close |
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09-10-16 | California v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 0 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #392 - 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET: After opening up at an 8 this line was down to a 7 by Thursday afternoon. The situation here is truly ideal for a San Diego State blowout and that is what makes the drop to a 7 add even more value in this spot. The fact is that the betting markets have had trouble with the Aztecs in the past and we feel this line is also well off the mark. San Diego State was "only" 7-6 ATS last season but 5 of those ATS wins beat the spread by at least 20 points. This looks like another spot where the Aztecs are very undervalued. Adding even more to this selection is the fact that California is still an over-valued team. They are off of a bye week because they were a week ahead of most everyone else with their late August game against Hawaii "down under" in Australia. That game is helping to give us value here because the Golden Bears did win that game by a big margin but it hides the fact that Cal defense did give up nearly 500 yards in that game. That was against the same Hawaii team that then went to Michigan and got rolled 63 to 6. The point is that the Cal early season win masked some major concerns with this team. The Golden Bears (with star QB Jared Goff now in the NFL with the Rams) are a team that is likely to struggle against a top rate defense like San Diego State has. With Rocky Long at the helm, the Aztecs are extremely well coached. San Diego State allowed only 287.3 yards per game last season which ranked them 5th in the nation. Many look at this game as a scheduling edge for Cal since they are coming off of a bye week. However, traveling to Australia to play inferior competition and then immediately having a two week break while trying to stay game ready isn't exactly an ideal situation. The Aztecs are truly in the ideal situation here as they have been home the entire time, hosted an outclassed New Hampshire team last week (31-0 win) so they were able to "work the rust off" after the off-season, and now they get a shot at revenge. Last year the Aztecs and coach Long were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 2 of their season when they lost 35 to 7 at Cal. Now San Diego State gets an opportunity for revenge at home and the Aztecs loss to Cal last year was their worst loss since all the way back in September of 2013 when they lost big at Ohio State. There is no doubt that coach Long will have his troops ready for this one and we expect running back Donnel Pumphrey to run wild in this one as he faces a Cal defense that was ripped for 248 yards (6.5 yards per carry) by the Rainbow Warriors. Cal ranked 109th on defense last year allowing 453.7 yards per game and that weakness is still here plus the offense only returned 3 starters from last season. Look for the home team to make it 8 in a row in this series on the West Coast. We'll lay the points with San Diego State in late night action Saturday. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 106 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER BRONCOS: It's the Super Bowl rematch as the Panthers and Broncos square off Thursday night in Denver. Let's first talk about the last meeting and the importance it has on this game and how it will impact the outcome. In the Super Bowl the Broncos defense was absolutely dominating and they essentially won the game themselves. On the other side of the football Denver had less than 200 yards of total offense, just 11 first downs but still won the game by 14-points. Why? Because the defense sacked Newton six times, forced 4 turnovers, 1 for a TD and 1 that directly led to a touchdown. Yes, the Denver D lost a few key players but our NFL insiders tells us they won't miss a beat, still have the best D-line and secondary in the NFL. Some experts feel this Denver defense might be one of the best overall units they've seen in years. In other words we don't expect a change on that side of the football for Denver so what about the offense? Former Broncos QB Peyton Manning was just 13 of 23 (56.6 percent) for 141 yards in the Super Bowl. He threw no touchdowns and one interception for a 56.6 passer rating, which ranks as the fourth-worst in Super Bowl history for winning quarterbacks. We're pretty confident young QB Trevor Siemian, who has had a great training camp, can manage this offense with the returning talent on the roster. Not to mention the Panthers start two rookie CB's which has only happened one other time since 1991. The Panthers were one of the league's best offenses statistically last year with QB Newton, RB Stewart and TE Olson but let's not forget they played the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL last season. Denver has 18 of the 22 overall starters from last year's team, are playing at home and getting points. In direct comparison, the Panthers were -4.5-point favorites last year on a neutral field and are now laying nearly the same number in Denver? Denver is 16-3 SU their last nineteen at home and have been a home dog of 3-point or less just three times in that span (3-0 SU/ATS). Carolina is 0-4 ATS their last four road games and while this is a revenge game the value clearly lies with Denver. Take the home team! |
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09-04-16 | Notre Dame v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Tonight we play on Texas plus the points over Notre Dame. Last year when these same two teams met the Irish were 8.5-point chalks at home and they destroyed the Longhorns 38-3 in racking up 527 total yards of offense while allowing just 163. That was last year in South Bend and the circumstances are much different this year with the game in Texas AND with the Longhorns returning 79% of their offense and defense from last year’s squad. Texas is loaded with talent and are expected to be much better this season in coach Charlie Strong’s third season. Our predictors expect them to be at least 3-points per game better offensively and the same defensively. This is the best O line in the Charlie Strong era, and it should be able to wear down a smallish (and lacking depth) d-front of the Irish as the game goes on. Strong realized he need to improve his offense so he brought in assistant coach Sterlin Gilbert and he’s been tasked with installing the same offense that has powered Baylor to two Big 12 titles in three years. You can expect success on the ground here with the power run game as tailbacks D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren run behind a solid O-line which should put the Longhorns in plenty of 3rd and short and take pressure off freshman QB Buechele. Yes, Notre Dame has talent offensively, especially at QB with Zaire and Kizer, along with RB’s Folston and Adams, but they lack playmakers at the wideout positions and there is some chemistry issues with the rotating QB’s. Texas is at home playing with revenge in their season opener and getting value here as they should be a slight favorite according to our early season power ratings. Grab the points with Texas. |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #183 - 10* TOP Clemson Tigers -7 @ Auburn Tigers @ 9 ET: Clemson was perfect last season until coming up just short against Alabama in the Championship Game. Although they lost 7 starters from last year's defense, this was similar to the situation going into the prior season as well - Clemson last 8 starters on defense heading into 2015. Of course 2015 was still a huge success and similar results should be expected in 2016. The defensive system continues to thrive at Clemson and the offense returns 8 starters including star QB Deshaun Watson. Under coach Dabo Swinney Clemson has gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 meetings with Auburn. Though Auburn is an SEC team they only went 2-6 both SU and ATS in conference action last season. Auburn will be trying to stop a Clemson offense that ranked among the top teams in the nation last year and Watson is such a huge threat both through the air and on the ground. The Auburn defense overall was ranked 13th in the SEC and now has its 3rd defensive coordinator in the last three years. Additionally, there is concern at the linebacker position as Auburn plays a 4-3 defense and lost all 3 of their starting linebackers from last season's team. We just don't see the Auburn defense (ranked 71st in the nation for yardage allowed) as being able to slow down Clemson much at all. The dynamic offensive attack of Clemson will prove to be too much here and Auburn doesn't have the offense to keep up. Auburn only has 6 returning starters on offense and the team was ranked 94th in the nation in yards per game on that side of the ball. We expect an early season road rout here and we're laying the points with Clemson Saturday night. |
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08-27-16 | Giants -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -2.5 over NY Jets, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - NFLX Game of the Year Let’s face it, the Giants offense has looked terrible this pre-season. They’ve scored only 10 points and were shutout in their most recent game @ Buffalo. They’ve already turned the ball over 8 times! Eli Manning has thrown only 9 passes during the pre-season and didn’t even suit up for their first game vs Miami. The Giants were embarrassed 21-0 in their most recent game in Buffalo. It was actually worse than it looked as NYG had only 7 first downs and 166 total yards. They were a woeful 1 of 11 on 3rd downs. This 0-2 team needs a win and needs to look good in this game vs cross-town rival Jets. Look for a big bounce back as new head coach McAdoo wants to win this game after their poor performance thus far. He got his team’s attention this week in practice and the urgency and tempo was much better according to starting QB Manning. The Giants will be ready on Saturday night. Offensive coordinator summed up the importance of this game vs the Jets. “It is very important for us,” he said this week. “It's no mystery, it was very disappointing in a lot of areas the last time we were out.” The Jets are 1-1 on the pre-season and have been outgained by just over 100 yards. Their main concern in this game is to get their running game going. In their most recent game vs Washington the Jets only ran the ball 9 times. Expect a heavy dose of the run here which is playing right into the Giants hands. As poor as they’ve looked offensively, the Giants run defense has been solid. They allowed only 3.3 YPC in their opener vs Miami and last week Buffalo only had 70 yards rushing on 1.9 YPC. This one sets up nicely for the Giants. We like the motivated team to get their first pre-season win. |
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08-27-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Bears | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -1.5 over Chicago, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET Both teams are 0-2 coming into this one but they each arrived at their record in completely different ways. In their 2 losses, the Bears have been outgained by 260 total yards, outscored by 23 points, and out “first downed” by 16. Their starting offense has scored a total of 11 points in 2 games. The Chiefs are also 0-2 but they’ve outgained their opponents by 140 yards, been outscored by just 2 points (both 1 point losses), and they are +7 in first downs. KC has blown 2 fourth quarter leads including a home loss to Seattle which came on a Seahawks hail mary pass as time ran out. The Bears offense has struggled this pre-season partly due to their banged up and inconsistent offensive line. That won’t change here against a KC defense that is aggressive and averaged almost 3 sacks per game last year (7th in the NFL). While Chicago has scored only 11 points with their starters, KC’s starting QB Alex Smith has led his team on 5 drives this pre-season and they have scored points on 4 of them. He’s 12 of 16 for 173 yards and has led the Chiefs on TD drives to open each of their 2 games this season. With starters expected to play into the 2nd half for both teams, we give a big edge to Kansas City who simply has the better team. The extra motivation of getting their first win after two down to the wire losses only helps here. Lay the small number with the CHIEFS! |
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08-17-16 | Brewers v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Wednesday MLB 10* TOP Chicago Cubs Run Line -1.5 runs -130 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8 ET: The Cubs swept the Brewers in yesterday's double-header and Milwaukee had to use 10 and 2 / 3 innings of bullpen work to get through the two games. That doesn't bode well for the Brewers today because their starting pitcher, Jimmy Nelson, has not gone longer than 5 innings in any of his last 5 starts. Of course another big concern for Milwaukee tonight is the simple fact that Nelson is in awful current form. He has given up 21 earned runs in the 18 innings he's logged over his last 4 starts. Of course the Cubs are a huge favorite tonight as a result but, by taking them on the run line, we can lay a moderate price on a Cubbies team that should win this in an absolute blowout. The Brewers have lost 11 of Nelson's last 13 starts and 10 of those 11 losses have been by a multiple run margin including 9 of the 11 by at least 3 runs. The Cubs will have Jon Lester toeing the rubber this evening and he has been phenomenal in his home starts this season. The Cubbies are 9-2 in his 11 home starts this season and Lester has compiled a 2.07 ERA in those outings. The Cubs have won 17 of Lester's starts this season and 12 of the 17 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Overall, the Cubs have been hot and 8 of their last 9 wins have come by at least 2 runs. We'll "lay it" and grab the small money odds with the Cubs tonight on the run line for a TOP PLAY at -1.5 runs -130 Wednesday. |
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08-03-16 | Hamilton -4.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-37 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
We love the spot to play on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats minus the 4-points @ the Winnipeg Blue Bombers tonight. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to remain unbeaten on the road this season and we feel they'll do so over a mediocre Winnipeg team that has been decimated by injuries. Hamilton comes into this game off a bye and they are playing with same season revenge as they lost to Winnipeg on July 7th 24-28, despite outgaining the Blue Bombers by 70-yards. Winnipeg starting QB at the time Drew Willy had a great game by going 32 of 42 for 279 yards and a TD. The problem for the Blue Bombers is that Willy will not be the pivot in this game as he's out with an injury which means Matt Nichols gets the start. Nichols had a decent start against Edmonton in his last game but now he faces a Ticats defense that is playing lights out right now with 8 forced fumbles (second in CFL) and a league-high 20 sacks. Hamilton’s front seven, meanwhile, has been the best in the league through the first part of the season with all four of the starters on the defensive line having registered at least two sacks. Another negative for the Blue Bombers offense is that they are playing without their top two receivers in Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler making it that much more difficult for their offense. Hamilton's offense is in good hands with QB Jeremiah Masoli who is coming off a record breaking performance against Edmonton where he threw for 391 yards on 31 of 38 passing with 3 TD's and 0 INT's. Masoli will look to make amends against the Blue Bombers after a 29 of 39 for 367 yards but 2 crucial INT's in the first meeting. Hamilton is 23-9 ATS their last 32 road games and they've won 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Blue Bombers. Lay the points with Hamilton tonight. |
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07-29-16 | BC v. Calgary -4 | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Our CFL best bet of the night is taking the Calgary Stampeders minus the points over the visiting British Columbia Lions. This is a quick rematch for these two division foes after BC beat the Stampeders earlier this season 20-18 as a +2.5-point underdog. Consider that number for a moment before we go any further. Calgary was laying -2.5-points on the ROAD in the first meeting and are now laying just -4.5-points at HOME in a REVENGE or MUST WIN situation if they want to win the division. Statistically the Stampeders have edges offensively as they rank 3rd overall in the league in points scored per game at 28.3PPG, they are 1st in sacks allowed, 2nd in rushing yards per attempt and 1st in turnovers which is especially key against this BC defense. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 72% of his attempts and has 8 TD's to just 2 INT's on the season. As far as BC's offense goes they are below average in the league in most categories ranking 6th in PPG at 25.5PPG, 7th in yards per game and 8th in passing yards per game. Defensively Calgary is 2nd in the league overall in points allowed per game at 21.5PPG which is slightly behind the #1 ranked D of BC who allows just 18.3PPG. Sure the Lions defense allows the fewest yards per game at 339.2YPG but Calgary allows the 3rd fewest yards per game in the league at 403YPG. Calgary has dominated this series prior to the early season loss as they had won 5 straight in this rivalry by an average of 17PPG. We predict a 2 TD win by Calgary tonight. |
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07-25-16 | Montreal v. Toronto -4 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
PLAY ON: TORONTO -4 over Montreal - 7:30PM ET - The Argos have a new stadium (BMO Field) and are eager to get a home win (0-2) this season for their home faithful. Toronto has a great opportunity on Monday night with a struggling Montreal Alouettes coming to town. Montreal has some internal issues going on within the club right now that stem from Nik Lewis, quarterback issues and several key injuries. The Alouettes are last in the CFL in scoring averaging just 14PPG and their starting QB's are throwing for less than 275 yards per game and 2 total passing TD's. Defensively they are allowing over 24PPG and were beaten twice this season by more than 14 points. Toronto has had problems closing out games as they are a negative -30 points to opponents in the 4th quarters of games this season. But expect them to find a way to get this one at home where they are desperate for a win. The Argos average 24PPG on the season with QB Ricky Ray completing over 70% of his attempts with 6 TD's to just 1 INT. Earlier this season the Argos hosted Hamilton and were 5-point favorites. Last week Montreal hosted that same Hamilton team and was a 2-point home dog. Now Toronto is laying the same number they were against Hamilton who is a far superior team. Lay the points with the Toronto Argonauts on Monday night. |
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07-08-16 | Saskatchewan +11 v. Edmonton | Top | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
Grab the points with the Saskatchewan Roughriders over the Edmonton Eskimos on Friday evening. This is a BIG game for both teams as the current Saskatchewan (SSK from here on out...) head coach Chris Jones, and his entire staff, lead the Eskimos to a Grey Cup Championship last season but bolted to SSK this year. Just weeks after winning the Grey Cup last year, Jones asked for more power in Edmonton and they wouldn't give it to him so he left for SSK. This staff knows the Edmonton roster better than anyone and Jones is a mastermind coach that will know exactly how to exploit the Eskimos weaknesses. Ironically, Edmonton had one of, if not the best defenses in the CFL last year but in their opener they gave up 45 points to Ottawa and were outgained by 148 yards. More support in our theory is the turnaround of the Roughriders defense (under Jones staff) that allowed just 252 total yards in their opener after allowing more points than any other team in the league last season. Offensively, the Roughriders were very good last year ranking 1st overall in passing yards, 2nd in TD passes, 2nd in average time of possession per game and 1st in rushing yards. SSK lost their opener against Toronto by 13-points but the final score is not a good indication of the actual game as the Roughriders had 13 more first downs, +13 minute TOP and were +137 total yards. The difference in that game was two critical fumbles, one of which was returned for a TD. Last season Edmonton was 9 and 10-point favorites over Saskatchewan and won both games by 11 and 25 points but the coaching change is a dramatic one and the line has clearly not been adjusted. Value lies with the Roughriders and the points!!! |
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07-07-16 | Toronto v. BC -7 | Top | 25-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Play on: BC Lions (-7) over Toronto Argonauts - 6PM CT Thursday - One of the big stories in the CFL thus far is the emergence of the BC Lions and their 2-0 start after a 7-11 record last season. BC has been outstanding on the defensive side of the football by allowing just 10.5PPG to start the season and less than 291 total yards per game of offense to opponents. To give you a better understanding of how good those numbers are, the next best points allowed per game in the CFL is 21PPG. Offensively the Lions are 1st in the league in time of possession (of the teams that have played 2 games - Saskatchewan has played one) and 2nd overall in rushing yards per game. BC will go up against a Toronto defense that is 3rd worst at stopping the run and is allowing 29.5PPG. We have one common foe between these two teams this season and that's Hamilton who Toronto lost to 20-42 and was outgained by 83 yards, while the Lions beat Hamilton 28-3, outgaining them by 58 yards. BC has won 9 of the last eleven meetings between these two clubs on this field and considering how well they are playing right now we expect a double-digit victory here. Lay the points with the BC Lions. |
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07-01-16 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -10.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: CALGARY STAMPEDERS (-10.5) over Winnipeg Blue Bombers - 10PM ET Friday night - Our CFL pick on Friday is with the Calgary Stampeders minus the double-digits over Winnipeg Blue Bombers. We have the opportunity here to play a very good team, maybe the best in the league, against one of the worst with the better team coming off an upset loss in Week 1. Calgary lost their opener to B.C. 18-20 and didn't really do anything well on either sides of the football. We expect a MUCH better showing at home this week from the team we feel is the 2nd best in the league. Calgary was 14-4 last year in the regular season and put up the second most points in the league at 27PPG . Defensively they allowed just 346 total points in the regular season (2nd in CFL) or 19PPG. You can see their average overall differential during the regular season was 8PPG but that number improved to +14PPG at home where they were 9-1 SU on the season. Winnipeg is also off a loss in Week 1 but we don't expect a bounce back here by one of the worst teams in the league. The Blue Bombers were 5-13 SU last year and have a current 4 game losing streak dating back to last season and are just 1-7 SU their last eight games. Winnipeg lost in the opener to Montreal who was just beaten badly last night by an Ottawa team that we rate slightly lower than Calgary. The Stampeders have beaten this Blue Bomber team 13 of the last fourteen meetings and with a tough game on deck against Ottawa they can't afford an 0-2 start to the season. Expect a 14+ point win by Calgary here. |
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06-30-16 | Ottawa v. Montreal | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASA CFL PICK THURSDAY, JUNE 30TH - PLAY ON: OTTAWA REDBLACKS (-1) over @ Montreal Alouettes, 6PM CT - We are going to follow the smart money today and side with the Ottawa Redblacks as our 'play on' team Thursday in the CFL. There are a couple negatives that go against Ottawa but overall there aren't enough to negate a bet on them here. Scheduling is a concern as they have the shorter turnaround than Montreal for this game and they are coming off a big win over Edmonton who they lost to in the Championship game a year ago. BUT they are a far superior team than the Alouettes and they still warrant a wager tonight. Ottawa put up a whopping 590 yards of offense last week and 45-points against an Edmonton team that allowed the least amount of points last year (18.1PPG) and were one of the best in the CFL overall defensively. The Redblacks were 4th in total points scored a year ago and 1st overall in total passing yards. Montreal was average or below in most defensive categories but benefitted from turnovers which improved their overall numbers. If they don't force turnovers here, they don't have an offense (last in passing yards in 2015 and 2nd to last in points scored) capable of trading points with Ottawa. Montreal (6-12 SU last year) beat Winnipeg (5-13 SU LY) last week 22-14 and barely outgained them which isn't saying much. Ottawa was 12-6 SU last year and lost in the Championship game and are favored by just a point in this matchup. In comparison, Calgary (14-4 SU LY) who is similar to Ottawa is a 10-point favorite at home over Winnipeg (same caliber team as Montreal) this week. We are getting a ton of value with a Redblacks team that finished last season 4-1 SU and ATS on the road. Not to mention this Montreal team was just 3-6 SU at home last year. Take the visitor and much better team in this game. OTTAWA! |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Golden State (-6) over Cleveland Cavaliers - 8PM CT Monday - We will play on Golden State minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game #5 on Monday. First of all, the suspension of Draymond Green is a complete and utter joke and I understand the 'point system' the NBA has in place and Green exceeded the technical foul number BUT really? Ask yourself this, had the roles been reversed and it was LeBron instead of Green in that situation would the NBA have given him a post game technical and suspended LBJ? No chance! Will the Warriors miss Green tonight? Yes, but not as much as you might think. Green did grab 12 boards in the last game but was just 2 of 9 from the field and is on an 0-8 run from beyond the arc. This is a deep team and they've had players step up every time they've faced adversity in the past two years so I think they overcome that loss. The oddsmakers adjusted this number but smart money continues to flow in on the Warriors even after it was announced Green was out. Golden State shot under 41% in the last game but still beat the Cavs in Cleveland by 9-points. In the first two games of the series the Warriors shot 49.4% and 54.3% at home and won in blowout fashion. GST was the best shooting team in the league at home this season, the most efficient offense at home and had the largest average point differential on their own floor. Golden State is 50-3 SU at home and have a 127-22 record here the past three full seasons. Lay the points with the Warriors. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Golden State Warriors + over Cleveland Cavaliers - Friday 8PM CT - We were on the Cavs in Game #3 and they rewarded us with a blowout win over Golden State but tonight we 'zag' and take the Warriors who are basically in the same situation that the Cavs were going into Game #3. We have a great team, off an embarrassing blowout loss and in need of a win. Golden State was really outplayed in the last game and didn't match the Cavs physical play, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Cleveland was 10th in the league during the regular season in defensive efficiency rating so I doubt we'll see a repeat performance tonight on that end of the floor for them. Not to mention the Cavs field goal percentage defense was 14th in the NBA (barely above average) as they allowed 45% shooting by foes during the regular season. Golden State had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #3 as Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green hit just 12 of 34 from the field and the team as a whole shot just 42.1%. Now consider this, the Warriors have played 102 games this season and they shot below 42.1% just fifteen times so the odds favor a much better shooting night in Game #4. On the flip side, the Cavs shot it extremely well in Game #3 at 52.7% which was considerably higher than their season average of 46.1%. And the Warriors FG% defense was 2nd best in the league so expect a better effort from them on that end of the floor too. The Warriors are 13-1 SU off a loss this year (27-7 SU last 2 years) and have been underdogs just 6 times this season and they've covered four of those games. Overall the Warriors are 30-11 SU the past two playoffs and they'll find a way to win this game in Cleveland tonight. |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1.5 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* Cleveland Cavaliers (pick'em) over Golden State Warriors 8PM CT Wednesday - We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers in this MUST WIN situation, AT HOME, OFF A BLOWOUT LOSS! Good teams, great players bounce in this role and the right wager here is Cleveland...even without Kevin Love. During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 9 times this year and lost three games in a row once but Irving and James both missed games in that 3 game losing stretch. Cleveland didn't do ANYTHING well in Game #2 and it was a humbling 33-point loss in Golden State. They shot just 38% as a team in Game #1 and 35% in G2 which are both well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. You can bet that the Cavs at home will shoot much better tonight, especially LeBron who has to attack the rim and the Warriors interior defenders. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-9 SU and have covered 4 of their last six in that situation. James shot near 54% in the Eastern Conference playoffs but has been held to just 41% in the first two games of this series. At home this year LeBron made over 53% of his FG attempts. The Cavaliers are 40-8 SU at home this year and during the regular season had the 6th best home point differential in the league. In the post season the Cavs home differential is +20PPG and they haven't lost with a 7-0 record. In fact, Cleveland has the best efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of all the playoff teams of +22.8 which is remarkable. Lastly let's consider this. If this game was played a week ago the Cavaliers would easily be a 4 to 5 point home favorite so the value lies with Cleveland. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers plus the points over Golden State in Game #2. We expect the Cavs to bounce back here and if they don't win they should cover this number. During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 8 times this year and they're coming off a pretty poor game by their standards. Cleveland turned the ball over 17 times which was uncharacteristic as they averaged just 13 per game during the regular season which was 6th best in the NBA. They also shot just 38% as a team which was well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-8 SU and have covered 4 of their last five in that situation. Golden State didn't get big games from their two Super Stars in Steph Curry or Klay Thompson so expect those two to contribute much more in this game but you also can't expect reserve guards Shaun Livingston to score a career playoff best 20-points or Leandro Barbosa to go 5 of 5 from the field. The Cavs have been 'dogs' just 10 times this season and they've covered 70% of those games. Included in that underdog run, Cleveland has only been a pooch of 7 or more points only once this year and they covered that game so we'll grab the points here in this must win situation with a good team like the Cavs. |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
We've got another great Finals match up this year when the Warrior and Cavaliers square off for the second straight time. We clearly got the best of the East and the West again in what promises to be a very entertaining series. The first thing I read online this morning is LeBron and the Cavs wanted this match up and are out for revenge from last year's Finals loss to Golden State. Guess what. LeBron and the Cavs were looking for payback in two regular season games against the Warriors and had a full roster but still LOST BY 34 in Golden State and 6 at home. That's five straight losses by Cleveland to Golden State dating back to last year's Championship. The Warriors won 73 games during the regular season this year and are currently 48-3 SU at home including 8-1 in the playoffs. The Warriors have an average point differential at home of +14.2PPG, shoot an average of 49% and allow under 44% shooting by opponents. In the playoffs the Warriors have won every home game but two by more than the spread in this game. Last year the big difference in the Warriors/Cavaliers series was the defensive play of Andre Iguodala who frustrated LBJ in the last three games of that series. If you paid close attention to the Thunder versus Warriors series the difference maker we felt was Iggy's defense on Durant and Westbrook in Games 6 and 7. Obviously Cleveland is playing pretty well right now but some of that is a bit misleading as they beat some average teams in the East in Detroit, Atlanta and Toronto. Home court will be huge in this series and Golden State has covered 10 of their last twelve on their home court. We'll lay the points in Game #1. |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Play on: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-) over Golden State Warriors – 8PM CT - Game 6 Saturday – The oddsmakers have finally gotten this line right with the Thunder now favored at home over Golden State but we feel there is still value with the OKC side. Consider for a moment how impressive the Thunder have been at home in the playoffs, especially the last two series as they are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Spurs and Warriors who were a combined 140-24 on the season. Not only that, but the last four wins over those two elite teams have come by 14, 14, 18 and 24 points respectively. Let’s also not forget the Thunder were 32-9 SU at home during the regular season (+9.8 point differential) and have just two home losses in the post season (+15.8 point playoff home differential). After breaking down the films off all the games of this series we’re convinced OKC is clearly the better team at this point in time and have too many matchup advantages for Golden State to overcome. KD or Kevin Durant is averaging 31PPG in this series while running mate Russell Westbrook is averaging 6.6 rebounds, 11 assists and 28PPG against Golden State this round. Even in their Game #5 win we didn’t feel the Warriors were the better team when they got a much needed home win to extend this series. Now OKC is back at home and off a loss where they are 13-3 SU this season in that situation. In fact, dating back to 2009 the Thunder have the best overall spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss by covering 58.4% of the time. In a playoff closeout situation the Thunder have won 11 straight games at home and have covered 6 straight times on this floor against Golden State. The pick here is OKC |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Play on: Golden State Warriors (-7) over Oklahoma City Thunder. We have to side with the Warriors here in a ‘must win’ situation at home off a loss. The scenario is perfect for a bet on Golden State but the Thunder have been the dominate team in this series and so laying seven plus points is the issue. Three of the four games in this series have been blowout with the victors winning by 27, 28 and 24 points so the number doesn’t scare us as much as it might normally. Golden State did not lose two straight games this entire season and are not about to lose three. The Warriors are 46-3 SU at home and have a home point differential of +14.4PPG which is one of the best in the NBA. On average Golden State shoots over 49% at home while allowing foes to hit under 44% of their shots and what’s significant about their shooting percentages is the fact the best shooting team in the NBA shot less than 41% in the previous two games. Back at home GST will find their touch again. The Warriors are 12-1 SU off a loss and a perfect 6-0 at home in that situation. The Thunder have been brilliant in the playoffs and may win this series but they won’t stay close in this one. OKC is just 1-5 ATS their last six trips to Golden State and we don’t expect the Thunder to get a cover here. |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5) over Toronto Raptors – Weds 7:30PM CT – OK, we’ve lost two straight wagers on the Cavs as they completely let us down on the road in Games #3 and #4. Cleveland was unbeaten in the playoffs prior to their trip to the north where the Raptors finally woke up and played good basketball. But now back in Cleveland we expect the Cavs to dominate like they did in the first two games of this series when they won by 31 and 19 points respectively. Cleveland shot over 50% as a team in the first two contests, then shot under 50% in both games in Toronto. The same can be said about the Raptors who shot poorly in Games 1 & 2 then shot well when they were at home in Games 3 & 4. Let’s not forget the Cavs have won their home games in the post season by a ridiculous 18PPG and only one of those victories has been by less than tonight’s point spread. The Cavs are averaging 1.218 points per possessions at home which is an incredible number and the best in the NBA in the post season. Their defensive efficiency at home is the 3rd best overall of all the teams left standing at 1.02PPP. Toronto’s road OEFF (offensive efficiency) is last among teams that are still alive in the post season at .978 points per possession and they have the largest overall road average deficit in the playoffs of -10.5PPG which is why they are just 2-6 ATS in road playoff games. After some questionable ‘no call’s’ for LeBron in Toronto expect him to get the benefit of the doubt at home tonight. Cleveland is 18-8 SU off a loss this season and 11-1 at home. Granted they have a big number to cover tonight but we feel they get a double digit home win here. |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (+) over Golden State Warriors, 7PM CT - We will play on the OKC Thunder plus the points over the GST Warriors on Sunday in Game 3 of this series. With this Western Conference Finals locked at 1 win apiece it makes this game HUGE for both clubs and we like the home court advantage. The Warriors lost just 9 games during the regular season but have already lost 3 in the playoffs, two of which were on the road in Houston and Portland. Now they travel to one of the loudest, best home courts in the NBA in Oklahoma where the Thunder had a positive point differential of +9.8PPG. Their offensive efficiency rating at home was 1.125 points per possession which was second best in the league. In the playoffs those numbers are up and that includes a series against the Spurs. Granted, the Warriors road numbers are impressive too but they've proven they aren't as invincible on the road in the post season as they were during the regular season. The Thunder are 21-9 SU off a loss this season, 12-3 at home which obviously applies here considering they are an underdog. The home team has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and you don't get a team like OKC that has 2 of the 6 best players on their roster as a home underdog very often (4-2 ATS last 6 times). The difference in this game is Westbrook, Durant and a rebounding advantage for the Thunder. Grab the points. |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -12 | Top | 89-108 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-12) over Toronto Raptors - Game 2 Thursday - Prior to the opener of this series the Cavs last played nine days ago, then they beat the Raptors handily in Game #1 and rested starters late in that game. The Raptors came off a grueling 7-game series with the Miami Heat and fatigue showed on Tuesday when they were blown out. The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs and have morphed into the 'Warriors' of the East by turning into a 3-point shooting team. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team during the regular season but have hit 44% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 three's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 three's for 35%. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. The Raptors are certainly not playing their best basketball right now and Cleveland is. Toronto has the worst point differential of any of the playoff teams left standing at +.6PPG while the Cavs have the 2nd best point differential in the playoffs of +10.5PPG. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.207PPP while the Raptors have the worst OEFF of any team left in the post season. In the opener the Raptors shot just 42% as a team and were killed on the boards 45-23. The line on this game is clearly inflated and we are betting into strong number but with how these teams are playing we'll bite and lay the points. Toronto is just 1-5 ATS their last six away from home and Cavs on perfect 4-0 ATS stretch on their home court. |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder- Tuesday, 8PM CT- In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we watched the all-time regular season win leader, Golden State, control the game for the majority of 3 quarters but couldn’t hold off the Thunder in the end. In Game #2 there is only one way to go and that’s with the 0-1 Golden State Warriors minus the points. The Warriors didn’t shoot it as well as they normally do in the opener and attempted 15 less free throws than the Thunder which is odd considering they are the home team and defending Champs. Golden State beat this Thunder team in the regular season by 8 and 15 points at home so we know they’re capable of covering tonight’s number. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season and are 45-3 SU this year at home. The Warriors suffered just 11 losses this year prior to Monday night and they are a perfect 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS in their next game after a beat, with those 11 wins coming by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-2 ATS their last nine at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. We feel the big advantage for Golden State in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor where the Warriors had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Thunder were 13th. In the playoffs the Warriors are allowing 1.032 points per possession which is the 4th best in the post season. On the flip side OKC is 8th overall in points allowed per possession in the playoffs. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big upset victory we expect a letdown in Game #2, along with an inspired effort by the defending champs at home off a loss. Warriors have covered 6 of their last seven off a loss and the home team has covered 7 of the last nine in this rivalry. Lay the points. |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-7.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder. In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we will side with the golden State Warriors minus the points. Under Steve Kerr the Warriors are 6-1 SU in Game #1’s of a series while the Thunder are on a 0-7 SU streak in that same situation. Golden State beat this Thunder team three times in the regular season by 8, 3 and 15 points with the larger of the two victories coming at home. It’s well documented that Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season. OKC had a very good road differential of +4.7PPG but they were just 10-12 ATS when playing away versus a team with a winning record. In fact, as an underdog this season the Thunder were just 6-8 ATS. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-1 ATS their last eight at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. As far as the on-court dynamics we feel the big advantage for the Warriors in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor. Golden State had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Warriors were 5th best. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big series upset victory over the Spurs we expect a letdown in Game #1 of this series opener in Golden State. |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +4.5 over Toronto, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET Three of the first four games in this series went to overtime and the overall scoring in those four games was Miami 379 & Toronto 374. Pretty much as tight as you can get. The last two games have strayed from that with the Raptors winning by 8 at home on Wednesday and Miami returning the favor winning by 12 on Friday. We think game 7 gets back to the trend of the first four games and fully expect this one to go to the wire. Miami is a veteran team that has proven they can get it done in these situations with Dwayne Wade at the helm. The Heat are now 7-1 their last 8 elimination games in the playoffs. They are 7-3 in Game 7’s while Toronto has never played in a Game 7 of this magnitude. The Heat have been in this spot year in and year out. Toronto’s playoff woes have been well documented as they are now 6-17 ATS their last 23 post-season tilts. This will be a pressure packed game for a Toronto team that is not accustomed to being in this spot. With the poor numbers we’ve stated, we simply have to shy away from the Raptors as a 2+ possession favorite here. Toronto relies heavily on their 2 guards DeRozan and Lowry and the fact is neither has shot well. Both are shooting under 40% in this series and we don’t expect a turnaround here in a stressful game 7 setting against a defense that has played very well not allowing the Raptors to hit 100 points once in this entire series. With Valanciunas now out, Toronto will rely even more on their perimeter shooting which is a recipe for disaster in this situation. We’ve got a feeling the pressure gets to Toronto here. They had the better record, they are playing at home, and trying to reverse their poor post-season history. You could say the more experienced Heat who have been successful in this situation are playing with nothing to lose – should we say less pressure – being on the road. We’ll take the points in this one. |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We are playing on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs Game #6 Thursday. The 'statistical' side of me screamed the Spurs in this game but the 'eye-test' tells me the Thunder win this game tonight. OK, that's not all and there is plenty of statistical support for the Thunder here including the Spurs record of 1-4 in Duncan's era when they are down 3-2 in a series. Some will say it's a 'must win' game for the Spurs but it's also a 'must win' game for the Thunder who don't want to go back to San Antonio. There has been a lot of talk about different key stats but the biggest is the Thunder's advantage on the boards. It's become evident Tim Duncan can't rebound against Adam's and Kanter and the Spurs don't have anyone on the bench that can come in and compete on the glass with the Thunder's "Bigs". OKC was +18 rebounds in the last game, +6 in Game #4, +5 in Game #3 and +11 in Game #2. The Thunder can make up for being a poorer offensive team than the Spurs because of how they dominate the rebounds and get second chance baskets. It's really the difference here. Yes, San Antonio is 14-3 SU off a loss this season but after a stellar season at home the Spurs have proven to be vulnerable with two home losses. San Antonio was also just 1-6 SU on the road this year against the better teams in the NBA so they're not the bully you think they are when up against the best. OKC is 35-11 SU at home this year and have 2 of the eight best players in the NBA on their roster in Westbrook and Durant and they'll advance tonight with a win over the Spurs. San Antonio just 3-12 ATS their last 15 visits to OKC. |
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05-11-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON Miami Heat (+4.5) over Toronto Raptors – 7PM CT Wednesday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. The Raptors are a poor 5-16 ATS the past three post seasons and much of that is due to the lack of consistency from All-Star’s Lowry and DeRozan. Lowry and DeRozan are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. In Game #4 those two combined for a 6 of 28 shooting night and just 19 combined points. As a team the Raptors hit less than 40% in the previous game while the Heat shot 45%. In the regular season the Heat were average in terms of overall offensive and defensive efficiency as a team, but in the playoffs they have the best DEFF allowing just .981 points per possession. The offense is 9th best at 1.049PPP which is slightly lower than their season average. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive efficiency statistics but in the post season they have the worst OEFF rating of all the teams left playing and have dropped from 1.10PPP to just 1.01PPP. Three of the four games in this series have gone into overtime and the non-overtime win was by just 4 points. All combined in the four games of this series the Heat have scored a grand total of 379 total points. Toronto has scored 374 total points. Just 5 total points separate these two teams in a four game series!!! D-Wade has turned back the clock and is carrying this Heat team and this one goes down to the wire again. There hasn’t been an adjustment in the pointspread and yet the Raps have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last eight games while the Heat are on a 5-1 ATS run. Grab the points! |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder - 7PM Tuesday - We like San Antonio at home in Game 5 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive, if not more so in some cases, considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant has shot is well the past three games of this series but his overall shooting percentage in the post season is 43.3% which is down considerably from his regular season average of 50.5%. In the opener of this series in San Antonio he was just 6 of 15 from the field and scored just 16 points. This Spurs defense was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. San Antonio is one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this game. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters, and the Spurs as defenders, but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Kawhi Leonard is playing fantastic right now along with LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker who give the Spurs the depth the Thunder lack. We love to play on great teams off a loss which is the case here as the Thunder beat San Antonio in Game #4 in OKC. San Antonio is 14-2 SU off a loss this season, 10-1 at home. Oh-by-the-way...those 10 wins at home off a loss came by an average of 19PPG and the lone loss was late in the year against Golden State. The home team has covered 20 of the last 30 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 3-7 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a convincing home win as they did in Game #1 of this series. |
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05-09-16 | Warriors -5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - This is a no-brainer to take the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. Let's just look at this logically first. We get arguably the best team of all time, off a loss and playing with revenge. In fact, this same scenario played out last series when Houston won Game #3 of their series at home and the next game the Warriors won by 27. The Warriors are 10-0 SU off a loss this season and those wins have come by an average of 14PPG. Let's not forget this Golden State team was 35-9 SU on the road this season with the second best point differential per game of +7.1PPG. They had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings away from home at 1.125 points per possession while allowing just 1.055PPP for the 7th best defensive efficiency rating. Portland had very good offensive efficiency numbers at home along with a +5.7 point differential but defensively they were in the bottom half of the league in efficiency ratings and they allowed foes to make 46.1% (14th) of their FG attempts on their own floor. A bad FG% defense is not a good recipe against a Warriors team that is 1st in the NBA in team shooting percentage at 48.7% on the year. Golden State is 7-2 SU the last nine meetings with the Blazers and all seven of those wins came by double digits with an average margin of victory of 16PPG. Portland is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the league at 37% but in their win last game they shot a ridiculous 56.7% as a team which nearly 20 full percentage points better than their season average. Golden State shot the 3 extremely well the last time out by making 48.3% of their 3-point attempts but that is just 7 percentage points higher than their season average. Given the law of averages, we don't see the Blazers shooting it as well as they did in the last game, and they can't rely on their defense to win games BUT the Warriors can. Even without Curry our prediction models predicts a 10+ point win by Golden State here. Lay it! |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
We are going to play on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs. In our analysis of Game #3 we see several factors that suggest the Thunder can play much better than they did in the last game. The Spurs played pretty well and OKC didn’t in our opinion and yet it was a 4-point game. Russell Westbrook is an NBA Super Star and was a triple-double machine all season long. Yet, he still has his ‘brain cramp’ moments which is exactly what happened in Game #3 when he attempted 21 of his 31 field goals without even making a pass first. Today he’ll look to get his teammates more involved and we expect a better overall team effort. The Thunder shot just 41.5% from the field (average 47.4% at home) in Game #3 and yet it was only a 4-point game. I didn’t think it was the Spurs defense as much as Westbrook missing a ton of point-blank shots. I thought OKC’s defense was much better in the last game and expect a similar performance tonight in this do-or-die situation. Even with how well the Cavs are playing right now we still feel the Thunder and Spurs are two of the three best teams in the NBA so now we’re getting one of the best teams in the league, at home, off a loss and also a small underdog. The Thunder were 20-9 SU this season off a SU loss and 11-3 at home including four straight covers. OKC has covered 11 of the last 14 games at home with the Spurs so they clearly know what it takes to win on this court against San Antonio. OKC has one of the best home court point differentials in the NBA at +10PPG and they’ll even this series up with a win tonight. |
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05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat (-5) over Toronto Raptors – 4PM CT Saturday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. They are lucky to be tied 1-1 in this series and were very close to being down 0-2 going into today. The biggest reason for their struggles is the horrendous play of their star players Lowry and DeRozen who combined are shooting less than 32% in the post season. Lowry can’t buy a basket right now shooting just 2 of 14 from beyond the arc in this series and a pathetic 15.8% in the playoffs. Lowry and DeRozen are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. Miami had a great opportunity to go up 2-0 in this series but an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers (averaged 14 per game during regular season) cost them a Game #2 win. The Heat have owned the boards in the two games of this series with a +17 margin which should continue today in Miami. Miami has won 3 of their four playoff games at home convincingly with wins coming by 32, 12 and 33 points. On the regular season the Heat were one of the better offensive and defensive efficiency teams in the league and had an average point differential of +5.3PPG. Again, we’ll mention the pressure factor and how it has affectied Toronto. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive road statistics but in the post season, against the 7th seed Pacers, they lost 2 of three on the road and the two losses came by 17 and 18 points. Miami is very good at home off a loss with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS record. The Heat have also covered 9 of their last ten at home while the Raptors are on a 0-6 ATS run. Lay the points with Miami here. |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors -4.5 over Miami Heat 8PM ET- We have a hard time trusting this Toronto team but if there is a spot to play on them it’s here. It’s human nature here for the Heat to relax a little in this game after winning Game #1 as it will be Toronto’s reaction to play with more urgency. Let’s not forget the Raptors are 35-11 SU at home this season which is one of the better home court records in the entire NBA. Toronto has the 6th best home point differential in the league at +6.6PPG and the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating at home (1.125PPP). Prior to the Game #1 loss the Raptors had beaten Miami three straight times by 14, 20 and 8 points and in the two regular season home meeting the Raps were favored by -6.5 and -10.5 points which are both higher than tonight’s number. Toronto is 12-2 SU at home off a loss their last 14 games including 3-0 SU in the playoffs with all three wins coming by an average of 6PPG. Not to mention that nine of their last 12 wins off a SU loss (including playoffs) have come by more than tonight’s spread. Miami played very well in the opener but let’s not forget they just played a long tough series with an average Charlotte team and age isn’t on their side. The Heat were just 11-14 ATS on the road against teams with winning records this season and are just 3-8 ATS their last eleven overall away from home. This has also been a chalk series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen clashes. If there is any time or place to bet the Raptors in this series it’s in this game. |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
We had the Cavaliers in the opener of this series and talked a lot about match ups and how Atlanta just can’t match up with the Cavs. But in this game we have to take the points with Atlanta in a desperate Game 2 situation. Much like the Thunder and Blazers played in Game 2’s of their series we expect a similar effort from the Hawks here. In the opener the Cavs shot extremely well from beyond the arc by hitting 15 of 31 3-point attempts which was good for 48.4%, well above their 36% season average. That’s especially surprising considering the Hawks have the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA allowing opponents to hit just 42.8% of their attempts on the season. Atlanta had the 5th best 3-point percentage defense allowing just 33.5%. The Hawks as a team shoot over 45% but in Game #1 they made under 39% of their FG attempts which is well below their season average. And it wasn’t anything the Cavs did who have an average FG% defense. The Hawks have the 7th best road point differential in the NBA when playing on the road this year and have the 2nd best defensive efficiency away from home allowing just 1.028 points per possession. Let’s not forget the Hawks actually led Game #1 with 8 minutes to play in the game but the Hawks offense managed just two field goals in the final 4 minutes of the game. Cleveland has a history of being over-priced which is evident by their 34-43 ATS record as a favorite. Atlanta was one of the best defensive teams in the league and they’ll find a way to keep Game #2 close. Grab the points. |
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05-02-16 | Hawks v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. First off I’d like to say this. I’m not a chalk eater but after two really EASY wins the last two days by taking the Spurs and Warriors in their opening round series why wouldn’t I at least consider Cleveland here. We can make the case that the Cavs are the third or fourth best team in the league behind the Spurs and Warrior and maybe OKC and they square off against a Hawks team that isn’t as good as OKC but similar to Portland. Why wouldn’t we lay the points in this game? Not to mention this is simply a ‘bad matchup’ for Atlanta. Yes, that’s right sometimes you have teams that can’t matchup physically against other opponents which I believe is the case for the Hawks. They’ve lost seven straight games to the Cavaliers after being swept in the playoffs last year and then losing all three meetings this season. The reality here is revenge doesn’t work here when you can’t matchup with your opponent. The Cavs have won the last 7 meetings by an average of 12PPG including one game very late in the season when Cleveland was at home favored by -6.5 points and won by 15. In terms of defense these two teams are similar as the Hawks were 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings (DEFF) while Cleveland was 10th. Offensively though the Cavs were much better ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency (OEFF) while the Hawks were 22nd worst. The Cavs are 35-8 SU at home this season with the 3rd best point differential of +8.2PPG which has improved to +11PPG in the post season. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a dog of 6 to +7.5 points this season which tells us they are an overvalued club. The Cavs are playing their best basketball right now and we see another game #1, new series, double digit win tonight. |
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05-01-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Golden State Warriors (-9.5) over Portland Trailblazers – 2:30PM CT - Play on the Golden State Warriors over the Portland Trailblazers. We can pretty much use some of the same logic that we used yesterday with the Spurs over the Thunder. Today we get the one of the two BEST teams in the NBA at home laying a reasonable number over another team that is coming off a huge series and upset win. We laying 7 points with the Spurs over the Thunder who might be the 3rd best team in the league and will lay this number with a Warriors team that is even with San Antonio and a Blazers team that is worse than OKC. Golden State beat the Blazers on this floor twice this season by 16 and 25 points already and even without Curry they’ll get a double digit victory in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG and are currently 42-2 on their home floor. Portland was not a good road team all season long with a 17-27 SU road record and the 21st WORST road point differential of -4.1PPG. Portland has a nice team that has a bright future but they did get a little lucky in the opening series when both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul went down with injuries. Granted the Warriors don’t have Curry here but other players have stepped up and this ‘TEAM’ continues to roll. Golden State has covered 5 straight at home and will get a blowout win here in the opener. |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
We like San Antonio at home in Game 1 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive if not more so in some cases considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant did not shoot it well in the first round series against the Mavs hitting just 36.8% from the field and 26.8% from beyond the arc. Now he'll go up against a Spurs defense that was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. The Spurs are one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this series. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters and the Spurs as defenders but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Under-appreciated Kawhi Leonard shot 52.7% in the first round, including 61.1% from beyond the arc. San Antonio is 4-0 in a Game 1 of a series after sweeping the previous series and they've covered 6 of their last 7 Conference Semifinal games. The home team has covered 18 of the last 26 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 2-6 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a double digit win. |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
We like the Indiana Pacers at home over the Toronto Raptors tonight. Indiana dominated the last game of this series for the vast majority of the game before a 4th quarter collapse when they managed just 9 points. Despite scoring just 9-points in the 4ht the Pacers still only lost by 3-points. Pacers Paul George has been a beast in this series averaging over 28PPG and he’s the type of player that can carry a team for long stretches of games and in this elimination setting he’ll shine. Toronto just isn’t trustworthy. They’ve struggled in the playoffs the last two years and if it weren’t for their horrendous 4th quarter in the last game they’d be facing playoff extinction here. The telling statistics in this series and difference for Indiana has been their defense. The Pacers had the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA during the regular season allowing opponents to hit just 43.8% of their attempts and in the post season they’ve held the Raptors to that number or below in every game. Toronto is not a very good shooting team either as they ranked 17th in the NBA in FG% or team shooting. Yes, the Raptors are much better overall in terms of offensive efficiency but the Pacers defense finished the regular season ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency rankings and are clearly one of the best in the league. Our predictive math model tells us the Pacers win this game by 7-9 points and we agree. Play ON the Indiana Pacers. |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
We will grab the points with the LA Clippers at home over the Portland Trailblazers. We've been doing this a loooonnnnggggg time and one thing we've seen over and over again is the game after a superstar gets hurt, other players step up and play well with opportunity to play more. IE: See the Warriors against Houston in their last game with Curry out. Remember it's a pretty fine line that separates good and great players in the NBA and when the reserves get a chance to shine in the spotlight they typically respond. The Clippers played half of the season without Blake Griffin so they'll fill that void tonight. The bigger loss is PG Chris Paul who the pick and roll offense ran through BUT the Clippers prepared for this scenario by putting in a true motion offense this season in case Paul went down. Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford (perennial 6th man of the year) and JJ Redick will have to step up in his absence and we feel they're up for the task. Let's not forget the Blazers were not a good road team this season with a 16-27 SU away record and a negative road differential of -4.8PPG. When playing good teams or clubs with winning records on the road this year the Blazers were just 9-13 ATS in the regular season. The Clippers were -8.5 points at home in game two of this series and are now a home underdog here? No way! Take the points with the LA Clippers and watch the back-ups get it done. |
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04-26-16 | Celtics +7 v. Hawks | Top | 83-110 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS: Grab the points with the Boston Celtics tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. This has been a great series so far and should go a full 7 games before an eventual winner is decided. After losing the first two games of the series, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens, made the necessary adjustments and the C's won the next two games to even things up at 2 games apiece. Three of the four games have been tightly contested with decisions by 9 points in overtime, 8 points and 1 point. The lone big win was by Atlanta at home in Game #2 when the Celtics scored just 7 points in the first quarter which is clearly an anomaly. We are obviously getting value with the spread here too as the line on the opening game of this series was Atlanta favored by -5.5 points but now they are laying 7. The Raptors had one of the better home point differentials in the league at home of +6.6PPG during the regular season but Boston had the 8th best road differential of +.9PPG. These two teams were both top 5 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings but the Celtics were far superior in offensive efficiency ranking 10th compared to Atlanta's 22nd rankings. Great teams find a way to bounce back after a loss but that's not the case with the Hawks who are 0-5 ATS their last five when coming off a beat. |
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04-24-16 | Warriors -9 v. Rockets | Top | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Golden State Warriors (-9) over Houston Rockets Game 4 Sunday 3:35PM ET Golden State is in Houston to face the Rockets in Game #4 today and should get a lift with the return of league MVP Steph Curry to the lineup. Without Curry the Warriors were able to beat the Rockets at home by 9 in Game 2 but then lost Game 3 by 1 in Houston. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and they allow a whopping 106.3PPG. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last seven and are 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. It's an inflated number but we still like the Warriors here by double digits. |
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04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Toronto, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET We’re going to take the Indiana Pacers plus the points over Toronto and expect an even 2-2 series after today. Indiana has the advantage defensively with one of the best efficiency defenses in the league and will have to contain the Raptors offensively. The Pacers have rarely been home underdogs this entire season and when they have been it’s mainly been the powerhouse teams of the West. Meaning the value clearly lies with Indiana at home in a must win situation. Much has been made of Toronto’s poor playoff success the past few years and even after winning the last two games we’re not about to trust them in this setting. The Pacers have done well when coming off a SU loss by covering 8 of their last eleven in this situation and the underdog has cashed 4 of the last five in this rivalry. Paul George and Monte Ellis will carry Indiana to a home win and even this series up. |
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04-21-16 | Warriors -5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: If you've followed our picks for any length of time you've heard us mention 'value' a lot when it come to the pointspread. Tonight is one of those cases as we look at the three NBA games on the docket. Golden State travels to Houston to face the Rockets in Game #3 tonight without Steph Curry and are favored by less than 6-points or two possessions. Yes, it's the 'must win' game for Houston to survive but let's look at it this way. The Warriors are clearly one of the top two teams in the league and better in most every category than Oklahoma City who is laying MORE points in Dallas whereas the Mavs are better than the Rockets. Granted, the Thunder are off a loss but there is no way this line should be as low as it is tonight. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and when you watch James Harden play it's obvious why. Harden and the Rockets are selfish and more concerned about their own personal gains and popularity than they are winning championships. That's why we don't think this 'must win' game means as much to them as the Warriors who are the epitome of a great 'team'. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. Despite missing Curry in Game #2 the Warriors were still able to win by 9-points as Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green all stepped up in his absence. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last six here and are loaded with enough talent to beat a bad Rockets team that lacks chemistry. Lay it! |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Indiana Pacers, Monday, Game #2 7PM ET - We lost with the Raptors in the opener of this series but have to come right back here with a play on them in Game #2. As we stated in our first analysis the Raptors have the 5th best overall point differential in the NBA and 5th best number at home of +6.6PPG where they were 32-9 SU for the regular season. The big difference between these two clubs is on the offensive end where the Raps ranked 5th in offensive efficiency ratings while the Pacers were 24th. Indiana had a losing road record this season of 19-22 SU and they lost the two regular season meeting here by 7 and 13 points respectively before their 10-point win in the opener. The Pacers were just .500 ATS on the road against teams with winning records while the Raptors were 16-4 ATS at home against winning teams. We look for irregular stats in games and two obvious ones were how well Indiana shot from beyond the arc in Game 1 and how many turnovers the Raptors had, along with how poorly Toronto shot. Indiana hit 11 of 21 3-pointers in the first game of the series for 52.4% which is much higher than their season average of 35.3%. Toronto on the other had shot just 38% overall in the game which was well below their season average or 45%. Lastly, the Raptors turned the ball over 20 times in Game #1 which was really odd considering they were 5th in the NBA in NOT turning it over this season at just 13.2 TO's per game. Toronto was +14 in rebounds and outscored the Pacers by 16-points in the paint which are favorable signs for tonight. Toronto has been very good off a loss this year with a 17-9 SU overall record, 9-2 SU when at home off an 'L' and they've covered 4 straight in that role. Indiana was 12-15 ATS this season on the road off a win and we would expect a letdown here after their upset win in Game 1. Yes, we know the Raptors struggles in the post season but the only way to be this game tonight is by taking the home team with revenge and a do-or-die situation. Lay it. |
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04-17-16 | Blazers v. Clippers -8 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
LA Clippers (-8) over Portland Trailblazers, Sun 9:35PM CT - We like the LA Clippers over the Portland Trailblazers in Game 1 on Sunday. If you read our Efficiency differential article on predicting the NBA Champion this year you’ll know that the Clippers, statistically, are one of a handful of teams that can win it all this year. LA is 7th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency which is much better than the Blazers 6th (OEFF) and 22nd (DEFF) rankings. The Clippers quietly went about their business this season and finished with the 6th best overall point differential (+4.3PPG) and 5th best home point differential of +6.9PPG. LA was 29-12 SU at home this season whereas the Blazers were a poor 16-25 SU on the road. Of all the playoff teams the Blazers have the second worst road point differential of minus -4.1PPG which was 21st worst in the entire NBA. Of all the playoff teams only Memphis has a worst road point differential but they were gutted by injuries all season long. The Clippers won 3 of the four season meetings with the Blazers with those three victories coming by an average of 9PPG. Portland ended the regular season on an 0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS stretch on the road against playoff teams while the Clippers closed the season with a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS mark their last four at home against similar clubs. Dynamically, the Clippers can play ‘small ball’ with the Blazers which makes this a very favorable first round matchup for them. Lay the points with the LA Clippers. |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
Atlanta Hawks (-4.5) over Boston Celtics, Sat 6PM CT - We will open the Playoffs with a best bet on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Boston Celtics. In some games/series there are teams that simply don’t match up with their opponent and we feel that’s the case here. The Hawks won 3 of the four meetings during the regular season including a win on this court last week 118-107 as a -5.5-point favorite. Atlanta has shot the ball EXTREMELY well against the Celtics by hitting over 52%, 46.6% and 56.2% in their last three meetings along with outrebounding them by 12 total rebounds. The telling stat from those three games though is points in the paint as the Hawks have outscored Boston from the lane by 46 total points in those three contests. That all ties into the season numbers with the Hawks having the 11th best team field goal percentage in the league and Boston having the 24th. Atlanta holds decided advantages shooting the basketball and defending shooters overall and at home compared to Boston’s season averages. The Hawks were 27-14 SU at home this year with a positive point differential of +5.9PPG compared to the Celtics 20-21 SU road record and point differential of +.9PPG. The Celtics are on a current 2-9 SU and ATS record on the road against Playoff teams and are just 2-12 ATS their last 14 on the road against teams with a .600 or better home winning percentage. Looking at the Hawks we find they are 8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS at home their last 11 to close the regular season against Playoff teams. As a favorite priced between 5 and 7.5-points the Hawks have a solid 13-6 ATS record and we expect a big home win here. |
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04-13-16 | Heat v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Tonight we will play on the Boston Celtics at home minus the points over the Miami Heat. This is a solid situation for the Celts as they are coming off a rare home loss while the Heat are off a straight up road win. Boston is 10-5 SU at home this season off a loss while the Heat are just 10-12 SU away off a win. Both teams need to win for a better position in the playoffs so the game has plenty of meaning for both sides. Boston has the 9th most home wins in the NBA this season and a home point differential of +5.5PPG which is 11th best in the league. Miami has a solid road record at 20-20 SU but in their last 13 road contests they have 6 wins and just two of those were against winning teams. The Heat have just one spread win their last 6 away from home. Miami is also off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in a four night span while Boston is rested. The Heat are 8-8 SU and ATS this season when playing without rest but 0-4 ATS their last four in that situation. The Celtics have covered 14 of the last eighteen meetings at home over Miami including a 12 point win in late February. Lay the points with Boston. |
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04-09-16 | Wolves v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
We will lay the points with Portland over Minnesota. Portland still has motivation to win this game as they desperately want the 5 seed in the West to avoid the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs so they won’t just rest starters here. Minnesota is coming off a pair of wins over Golden State which was easily their biggest win of the season, then won in Sacramento when the Kings decided to ‘rest’ their two best players in Cousins and Rondo. So we’re not impressed with the Wolves second win and expect a letdown here with their focus being on winning their last two home games. At first glance you might think the line is over-inflated here but really it’s not as bad as you think. The horrible Kings were laying -5.5 points (before announcing injuries) against the Wolves and Portland was a -6.5 point favorite the last time they faced the Wolves. Portland has the 8th best home point differential in the NBA this season at +5.9PPG and they’ve WON 16 of their last 17 at home with a large portion of those wins coming against playoff caliber teams including Golden State (won by 32), Oklahoma City (won by 5), Miami (won by 17), Boston (+7) and Dallas (+6). Minnesota has a negative point differential of -3.3PPG on the road this year and despite their last two wins they have allowed their last 5 opponents to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts so expect a good shooting Portland team to take advantage. Minny is just 7-13 SU this year off a win and has just 1 spread cover their last 8 trips to Portland. We expect a double digit win by the host Blazers. |
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04-07-16 | Spurs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
We love the Golden State Warriors in this situation and will play on them here minus the points over the visiting San Antonio Spurs. Golden State is coming off a DISAPPOINTING overtime home loss to the T'Wolves and have now lost 2 of 3 at home which has everyone questioning them. Tonight they bounce back off that loss and prove a point with a big win over the Spurs. GST is a perfect 8-0 SU when coming off a loss this year, 4-0 at home and the 8 wins have come by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors are 22-6 SU the past two seasons off a loss for a winning percentage of 79%. San Antonio has lost 2 of their last four road games and we feel this game won't have the same importance for them as it will Golden State. The Spurs are sandbagging for the post season and will focus on beating the Warriors at home next week and then in the post season. The last time these two teams met on this floor the Warriors were favored by -4.5 points and won by 30. San Antonio is perfect at home this season with all 12 losses coming on the road. The Warriors are 85-6 SU the past two seasons at home while the Spurs are just 8-12 SU as a road pooch in that same time. This really comes down to the Warriors being motivated and the Spurs are not. Lay the points with Golden State. |
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04-01-16 | Wizards -8 v. Suns | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Play on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. In wake of a really bad outing we expect the Wizards to bounce back here with their Playoff lives on the line. Washington is 3 games behind the 8th place Pacers and need this win in the worst way. Phoenix has just 20 wins on the season which makes them the 3rd worst team in the NBA. If they stay in this position they have a much better shot at getting a top 3 pick in the lottery which is critical when you look at the class declaring for the draft. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price with this road favorite but the Wiz were just favored by 9 over the Lakers in L.A. and won by 13 so it's not totally out of line. The Suns have the 3rd worst overall point differential in the NBA at -7.3PPG, 4th worst defensive efficiency rating and 3rd to last offensive efficiency number. Washington is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 45.8% and they should take advantage of a Suns defense that has one of the worst shooting percentage D's in the NBA. On the flip side the Suns won't take advantage of the Wizards defense as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the league. Phoenix has shot 41.9 percent while averaging 97.9 points over its last eight games and that won't get it done against a Wizards team that can score points (103.4PPG - 10th best in NBA). |
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03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso -1.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso -1.5 over BYU, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET We like Valpo at this low number. We have the Crusaders ranked as the better team with the much better defense. Their defense ranks 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency defense and 6th in the nation in eFG% defense. They allow just 62 PPG on 38% shooting. To get here, Valpo had to play a team that finished 2 games ahead of BYU in the WCC, St Marys, and beat them by 16 points. They held St Marys, who entered the game as the #1 shooting team in the nation, to just 44 points. The Crusaders are also the better rebounding team with a margin of +10 per game on the season. They are a top 10 defensive rebounding team so don’t expect BYU to get many 2nd chances. BYU loves to run & gun. They are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. Valpo is not. Expect the Crusaders to slow this game down and make it a half court affair which is definitely not their offensive strength. The first 3 teams BYU played to get here (UAB, Va Tech, and Creighton) all were fine running with them which played right into their strength. Now they have to play a team that won’t do that which will be a problem in our opinion. Valpo was a great road team this year going 12-4 in true away games. Lastly, this is a much tougher trip for BYU. Going west to east can be very difficult. The furthest trip east that BYU took this year was to Boulder, Colorado. This is a 2,000 mile trip for the Cougs and just 700 for Valpo. Don’t discount that. Valparaiso was the best team in the Horizon by a mile all season long. Once the NIT began, they were out to make a statement that they should have been in the NCAA. They’ve won their first 3 games in the NIT by double digits. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation (3 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up) and we’ll call for a win here as Valpo gets to the NIT Finals. |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +9.5 over North Carolina, Sunday at 8:45 PM ET The value here is absolutely on the Irish. These two played just a few weeks ago in the ACC tourney and UNC was favored by 7 on a neutral court (Washington DC). Now because of that result – Heels won 78-47 – and UNC performance vs Indiana on Friday night – Heels won 101-86 – this line is nearly 3 points higher than it was then. A few things…The result in the ACC tourney gives Notre Dame extra motivation here. The players talked about a that embarrassment and how they wouldn’t get another shot at North Carolina until next season. “What else can you ask for?” said Irish junior guard Steve Vasturia. “Nobody as a competitor or a player wants to get smoked out of the gym like that.” A normally very good shooting team, Notre Dame shot just 30% in that game and just 26% from beyond the arc. We expect them to shoot much better here. They were also killed on the boards and while UNC is a great rebounding team, you can bet ND will put their full focus on the glass. These two met one other time this season, Notre Dame won by 4 and they were only -1 on the boards in that game so they have proven they can get it done. UNC is an average shooting team. They are one of the worst shooting teams from beyond the arc (284th nationally). However, everyone watch the Heels hit 52% of their shots vs the Hoosiers on Friday and 55% from 3-point land. We don’t see them doing that again here. First of all, IU tried to run with the Heels which turned out to be a mistake. Because of that, UNC got a number of easy baskets and wide open 3’s. Notre Dame will make this a half court game which is not how the Heels want to play. The Irish know they can’t win in a run & gun type game. These two teams know each other very well and Irish head man Mike Brey has proven he knows how to beat UNC as ND has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We expect a close game. Take the point |
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03-27-16 | Syracuse +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Syracuse +7.5 over Virginia, Sunday at 6:05 PM ET This should be a lower scoring game (124 is the total) making it much tougher to cover a higher number like this. Both dogs covered (won outright) yesterday and that now means the Elite 8 underdogs are on a 42-28 ATS run. These 2 met once this season with UVA winning by just 8 at home despite hitting 57% of their shots while the Orange hit just 39%. That line was set at Cavs -9.5 meaning this one should be more like UVA -5.5 or -6. Virginia won by 12 vs Iowa State last round which wasn’t a surprise (we were on Virginia). The Cavs frustrated a run & gun ISU team into a halfcourt game. Syracuse is a halfcourt team. They play slow just like Virginia. They will be in their comfort zone here also these two teams know each other very well making a large spread more difficult to attain. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the year and were in striking distance in most of their loss – only 4 losses by more than 12 points. We think this low scoring and goes to the wires making the points too good to pass up. |
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03-24-16 | Maryland v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET Kansas gets an extra day to rest and prepare here as they finished off UConn last Saturday while the Terps (who had a long trip to Spokane, WA) had to play on Sunday. Coaching edge also the KU with Bill Self and his 39-16 record in the NCAA tourney (5th highest winning % all time) compared to Turgeon who’s a pedestrian 8-6 lifetime in the Dance. The Terps struggled down the stretch winning just 3 of their final 8 games heading into the Big Dance. While they obviously did get two wins last week, they weren’t overly impressive in our eyes. They struggled to beat South Dakota State (couldn’t hold a big lead) and then while they beat Hawaii by 12, it was a close game until the final stretch run when the Terps closed out the game on a 30-19 run. Maryland’s tough closing run on the season was directly related to the struggles of their point guard Melo Trimble. He’s played so many minutes he’s hit a wall. In his last 12 games, Trimble is shooting just 32% and just 26% from beyond the arc. This team has no chance of beating KU unless Trimble shoots much better than that. Will he? We doubt it as Kansas is 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and guard Devonte Graham is one of the better defenders in the country. The Jayhawks have been at the top of their game since late January winning 16 straight including wins over NCAA teams Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia (twice), Baylor (twice), Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all in the final month and a half before the Dance. They destroyed both Austin Peay (by 26) & UConn (by 13 – but led by 24) in the first two games. This team is playing too well right now for Maryland to hang. |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) +4 v. Villanova | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -102 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +4 over Villanova, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET First off, we are siding with one of the top teams from a MUCH better conference. The Canes are one of the top teams from what seems to be the top conference in the nation this season. Miami finished tied for 2nd in the ACC with Virginia and that league has sent SIX teams to the Sweet 16. Nova is the lone team still standing from the weaker Big East. Many will be on the Cats here because of the way they performed in the opening rounds of the Big Dance. They rolled to easy wins over UNC Asheville & Iowa making them a bit over valued here in our opinion. Nova was able to use their full court & perimeter pressure to create turnovers and easy hoops in those two games. UNCA turned the ball over on 21% of their possessions and Iowa did so on 18%. Because of that, Nova was able to jump out to big leads early and coast. That won’t happen here. Miami is a veteran team with very good guards including PG Rodriguez. They won’t be frazzled by the Nova pressure. This Cane offense is very good. They rank 12th nationally in offensive efficiency. They just took it to the #1 defensive team in the nation (efficiency wise) last weekend lighting up Wichita State hitting 55% of their shots in the 8 point win. That red hot Shocker team came into their game vs the Canes after BIG wins over Vandy & Arizona. It was a Shocker defense that hadn’t allowed a single team all season to hit 50% of their shots until they faced Miami. Nova’s offense really relies heavily on the 3 point shot. That can be dangerous playing in a new venue for the first time (Yum Center in Louisville). It can also be dangerous when facing very good, tall, and athletic guards which Miami has (6’6 Davon Reed & 6’5 Sheldon McClellan). Those type teams have given Villanova some problems this year (Xavier & Seton Hall). Often overlooked, Miami has also had an extra day to get ready having played last Saturday while Nova played on Sunday. The Wildcats put a TON of emphasis on winning their first two games and getting to the Sweet 16. They hadn’t done so since 2009 despite having been a #1 seed once and #2 seed twice. While we won’t call for a “letdown” so to speak, one of their goals this year was to get to the Sweet 16 and they did so. We have these two teams rated much closer to even so we’ll grab the points and MIAMI. |
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03-23-16 | Georgia Tech v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over Georgia Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET This is one of the tougher travel spots you’ll see for a college basketball team. While San Diego State will be at home for their 3rd straight NIT game, Tech has been all over the place. On Monday (just 48 hours ago) they upset South Carolina on the road to get a chance to move on in the NIT. However, they didn’t know who they would play until the Washington/San Diego State game ended at 1:42 AM ET on Tuesday morning. At that point they had to quickly make plans to fly from South Carolina to California and did so all day on Tuesday. This team basically had 43 hours from the time they found out they were playing SDSU until game time tonight. They will have almost no preparation time. While the Aztec coaches were up late Monday night into Tuesday watching film and putting together a game plan AND practicing, Tech was en route to California. We give the Aztecs a huge advantage there. On top of that, this is a tough match up for the Jackets. Georgia Tech doesn’t take many 3’s. They get the majority of their points from inside the arc (20th in the nation in that category). They are running into a defense that is #1 nationally defending inside the arc as SDSU allows only 41% on opponents 2 point attempts. The host is fantastic defensively in every category ranking #1 nationally in opponents 2 point %, #2 in opponents 3 point %, and #3 in overall defensive efficiency. Tech relies on heavily on rebounding as well and they are facing an Aztec team that is solid on the boards and the 5th “tallest” team in the country. Not to mention we expect the Tech players to have “weary” legs which will affect them in all aspects of the game including the boards. This is a sellout so we expect the crowd to be a factor as the winner moves on to NY City for the NIT Final 4. SDSU has a fantastic home court advantage going 46-6 here the last 3 years. We’ll lay it with San Diego State. |
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03-21-16 | Wizards v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
Tonight we will play on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Washington Wizards. We have been waiting for a spot to play on the Hawks and this game is the perfect situation. Atlanta is running HOT right now having won 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten overall. In that stretch of games they've beaten playoff bound: Memphis, Indiana, Houston and the Clippers. On the flip side the Wizards have won 4 straight games but take a look at who they came against. Philly, 9 wins and one of, if not the worst team in the NBA. The Knicks who are tanking right now for a better lottery position. Detroit who is out of the playoff picture right now and Chicago who is 8th in the East. What we're saying is this...we're not impressed! The Hawks have a point differential of +15PPG their last five games and have held foes to just 40.5% shooting and 93.4 points per game in that stretch. On the season, Atlanta has one of the leagues better home point differentials of +6.2PPG (6th) while Washington has one of the worst road differentials (23rd) at minus -4.7PPG. Washington on the road is just 7-13 ATS when playing an above .500 team this year and 0-4 ATS their last four versus home teams like Atlanta that have a winning percentage greater than .600. The Hawks have covered 8 of the last 12 meetings and should get a double digit win here. |
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03-20-16 | Iowa v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Villanova -6.5 over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET The Hawks looked like one of the top teams in the country in January. Problem is, that’s when they hit their stride which was too early. They’ve been heading downhill ever since. The Hawks have won just 3 of their last 9 games and two of those were down to the wire affairs that could have been losses. One was on Friday when Iowa beat Temple in OT where the Hawks won on a buzzer beater in OT 72-70. All of Iowa’s starters played at least 32 minutes with their two main scoring threat Uthoff and Jok playing 43 and 39 minutes. That makes this a tough 48 hour turnaround for Iowa. Nova on the other hand should be very well rested as they had a stress free round one game beating UNC Asheville by 30. They had 8 players play at least 16 minutes with only 1 topping 30 minutes (31). The Cats haven’t been past NCAA round two since 2009 and they’ve had to hear about it A LOT. Since 2009 they’ve been a #1 seed once and a #2 seed twice yet still didn’t make the Sweet 16. That was one of their goals this year and this team is on a mission to get there this season. Villanova’s big man Ochefu summed up his team’s thoughts heading into this one. “Everybody’s been talking about this game for the whole year, even in the summertime before the season started,” Ochefu said. The Cats are better offensively (10th nationally in offensive efficiency to 24th for Iowa), better defensively (7th nationally in defensive efficiency to 37th for Iowa), and better at the line (77% to 72%). Iowa has been trending downward and almost had their season come to an end on Friday vs a Temple team that Villanova beat 83-67 in February. Iowa’s slow demise comes to an end here and we like Villanova to roll up a double digit win. |
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03-19-16 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +10 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
We will side with Memphis at home plus the points over the LA Clippers. It's hard to believe only a few games separate these two in the standings yet the Clippers are double digit chalks on the road. That is mainly due to the Grizz have several key injuries to starters Gasol and Conley but Zach Randolph is expected back tonight. Memphis though should get some production from a few Clipper castoffs who are the types of players that hold grudges. Lance Stephenson has averaged over 23PPG, 8RPG and nearly 6 assists per game his last four games while another former Clipper, Matt Barnes has averaged 16PPG and over 8 boards per game his last five. Memphis has not been a double digit home dog this year and the largest number they've faced this year at home was 7-points against the Golden State Warriors. Now they're catching 10+ against L.A.? The Clippers have not done well when laying a lot of points this year as they are just 4-10 ATS laying 9+ points while Memphis is 3-2 ATS when catching more than 10 points this season. The Grizzlies have also been a solid bet all season rebounding at home off a SU loss (as they are here) with a 12-4 SU record at home. Memphis has cashed in on 11 of the last thirteen meetings with the Clippers and we expect that trend to continue. Grab the points. |
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03-19-16 | Butler v. Virginia -8 | Top | 69-77 | Push | 0 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia -8 over Butler, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET We are not Butler believers. While they did enough to get into the Dance, they did not play well against the top teams in the Big East. The top 3 teams in the Big East were Villanova, Xavier, and Providence. The Bulldogs were 0-6 vs those teams with 4 of the 6 losses coming by at least 8 points. Their win in round one over Texas Tech was much closer than the final score indicated. The Bulldogs pulled away very late in that game to win by 10. They shot 49% overall in that game including 53% from beyond the arc. We highly doubt they’ll do that vs Virginia’s defense. Butler’s defense is pretty average so this team needs to shoot very well to win here. They don’t have much size inside so they rely heavily on the 3 which can be dangerous. The Cavs get huge credit for their staunch defense but let’s not forget this team has the 8th most efficient defense in college hoops. They should eat up this average Butler defense. We think UVA pulls away late and gets the cover. |
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03-19-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Arkansas Little Rock, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET The line value is definitely with Iowa State here. UALR was just a 9.5 point underdog vs Purdue in game 1 yet they are only +6 here vs a team that rates almost dead even with the Boilers. We like looking to fade teams in round 2 that pull big upsets in round 1. Not only did the Trojans pull the upset, but they came from way down (they were down 14 with 4:00 minutes left) AND the game went into double OT. That makes this a very tough 48 hour turnaround facing one of the top offenses in the country. ISU has 6 players averaging double figures, they shoot over 50% as a team and their eFG of 56% is 4th best nationally. While UALR was grinding out a win a game one, ISU rolled to a non-stressful 13 point win over Iona. This one sets up nicely for ISU and the line is more than manageable here. Lay it. |
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03-18-16 | CS Bakersfield v. Oklahoma -14 | Top | 68-82 | Push | 0 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma -14 over CS Bakersfield, Friday at 4:00 PM ET The Sooners were thought to be the best team in the country for much of the year. In fact, even Kansas coach Bill Self mentioned in early February that he thought Oklahoma was better than every other team in the Big 12 including his Jayhawks. They faded a bit down the stretch as they are a thin team and looked out of gas. Expect them to be rejuvenated and back to form here after having a full week off. When healthy and rested, the Sooners are really a #1 seed in our opinion. CS Baskersfield just hasn’t played the schedule to get them ready for this tourney. Their SOS ranks 326th out of 351 (Oklahoma SOS ranks 3rd) and they have played only 2 teams all year ranked inside to top 100 (lost both to Fresno by 8 & Arizona St 16). CSB is solid defensively (26th nationally in defensive efficiency) however Oklahoma has a nice edge there ranking 10th nationally. However, the Sooners have a HUGE edge on offense. This team is one of the best shooting teams in the nation and rank 2nd nationally from beyond the arc. CSB is not a good shooting team neither from the field or at the line (65%). They are also one of the smallest teams in the nation with one starter taller than 6’4. This is basically a home game for Okie (in Oklahoma City) and we think they come into this game with a chip on their shoulder and this game turns into a blowout. |
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03-17-16 | Gonzaga v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +1.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET The Pirates continue to fly under the radar. This team is red hot entering the tourney and just might have been the best team in the Big East at the end of the season. If their tourney run is any indication, they were. Seton Hall topped Creighton to open the Big East tourney and then really ramped it up beating both Xavier & Villanova (both current #2 seeds in the Big Dance) to win the title. The Hall plays great defense (15th most efficient defense in the country) and they have really good guards. Those are the makings of a dangerous team. Pirate guard Isaiah Whitehead will be the best player on the court and it a future 1st round NBA pick. That’s a huge advantage in this game as Gonzaga is fairly weak in the backcourt. The Zags were a bubble team that had to win the WCC tourney to get in and they did. They played only 3 tourney teams all season going just 1-2 with losses to both Texas A&M & Arizona while beating UConn by 3. Seton Hall played 11 games vs tourney teams and went 6-5 in those games with impressive wins over Wichita State, Xavier, Villanova, and Providence. This team is peaking right now winning 12 of their last 14. Our only fear is how will they react coming off the Big East Championship win and beating two marquee programs to get there? The Pirates might struggle early but with the line where it is and them having to simply win the game, we think they’ll play well down the stretch and get the “W” against a “down” Gonzaga team – not as good as past editions. |
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03-17-16 | Providence -1.5 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Providence -1.5 over USC, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET The Friars are a dangerous team in this tourney. They have 2 NBA first rounders in point guard Kris Dunn and forward Ben Bentil. Dunn will be one of the best PG’s in this tourney and we like having him on our side (with the ball in his hands) if this is a tight game late. They have proven they can get it done away from home with a 10-6 record this season in away/neutral games. Providence has beaten some very good (NCAA tourney) teams this year including Villanova, Arizona, and Butler (3 times). 7 of their 10 losses came at the hands of NCAA tourney teams so very few bad losses for this team. They are used to the NCAA tourney setting as this will be their 3rd straight year in the Big Dance. The Friars have been motivated to get back here all season long after last year’s first round exit vs Dayton. USC loves an up & down the court type game. They struggle in a half court setting which is what Providence will do here. The Trojans hit a wall in early February and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games. They also picked up the vast majority of their wins at home as they went just 4-10 in road/neutral games. The Trojans have won a grand total of ONE game away from home since January 13th and that was a neutral site win over UCLA. USC doesn’t have a single player who has played in an NCAA tourney game and they are young starting a freshman and 2 sophomores. Providence is the side in this one. |
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03-17-16 | Hornets v. Heat -4 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
Tonight we side with the Miami Heat minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets. Both teams have plenty to play for as they jockey for position in the East but scheduling and a few other pertinent dynamics favor Miami here. Charlotte is playing their 2nd of a back to back having played Orlando last night and this will be their 3rd game in four nights. Miami on the other hand has been off since Monday and this will be just their 3rd game since last Saturday. Miami has an edge at home where they are 22-12 SU with an average point differential of +3.9PPG. The Heat have won 6 of their last seven at home with the lone loss coming against the Golden State Warriors and all six of those wins have come by more than tonight's spread. Charlotte is a respectable 12-19 SU away from home with a negative or minus -2.5PPG differential and they've played 7 straight home games. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two team with Miami holding a 2-1 advantage with a double digit home win early in the year. In their last five games on the road against winning teams the Hornets are 2-3 SU and both wins were over a Pacers team that was struggling at the time. Miami is 8-4 ATS versus division opponents while Charlotte is just 5-7 ATS. In their last game the Heat had six players score 17 or more points and another with 11 which is incredible balance whereas the Hornets rely mainly on Kemba Walker for most of their scoring. We like Miami here by 10+. Lay it. |
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03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington v. Duke -10.5 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Duke -10.5 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET Many are thinking this game might be an “upset special” but we’re not buying it. While UNCW won both the CAA’s regular season and post-season title, their resume it really quite weak. How weak? How about the fact they have not played one NCAA tourney team this entire season. Not one. The Seahawks played only one team all season long ranked higher than 80 in the Ken Pom ratings. That was Georgetown way back on Dec 12th which was a loss for Wilmington. This is a Seahawk team that doesn’t have a single player that’s ever played in an NCAA tourney game and a coach, Kevin Keatts, that’s only been a head coach for 2 years and has never been the head man in the tourney. Facing one of the best coaches (Coach K has 88 tourney wins!) & programs in the country with LOTS of NCAA experience will be a tall task. The problem with Duke is their lack of depth. As the tourney rolls on we may look to play against them in their 2nd game in 3 days situation. That isn’t the case here. The Devils have been off since last Thursday and they are rested and ready to go. Coach K kept most of the practices leading into this game “non-physical” to make sure his team was ready. He stated earlier this week that is team is now as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. The Devils should score enough to pull away in this one as they are the 6th most efficient offense in the nation. On top of that, UNCW puts teams at the line a lot which will give Duke a chance to extend the margin. We’re going to lay in the points here with the Blue Devils. |
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03-16-16 | UAB +9.5 v. BYU | Top | 79-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UAB +9.5 over BYU, Wednesday at 10 PM ET UAB was the top team in Conference USA all season long. They won the regular season title by a full 3 games! They were upset last Thursday in the CUSA tourney by Western Kentucky so the Blazers have had some time to regroup and get ready for the NIT. They weren’t a “bubble” team so once they lost, they knew it would be the NIT. This is a team that was in the NCAA tourney team that beat Iowa State in the opening round. They are 26-6 this year and returned nearly all key players from last year’s Big Dance team. This isn’t a team that goes to the NCAA year in and year out so we look for them to be excited to play in the NIT, especially vs a “name” foe. They have proven their road prowess as well with a 10-3 record in true road games. We expect BYU to play a bit of a ho-hum type game here. They fell well short of their expectations this year and this team has been in the Big Dance 8 of the last 9 seasons. The NIT is not a thrilling award for this BYU team. The Cougs have been a terrible play in the post-season covering just 4 of their last 17. UAB is the better offensive team and the defenses are fairly close. The Blazers are also a fantastic underdog covering 22 of their last 30. We like UAB to have a good shot to win this game and we’re getting nearly double digits. |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +5 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tulsa +5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET Tulsa is this year’s team that shouldn’t be in the tourney according to the talking heads and the TV “experts”. The Hurricane players will hear about this all week long and they’ll come into this game with a huge chip on their shoulder. This team is no slouch. They are 20-11 on the season and very experienced with 4 senior starters & 1 junior starter. They proved they can win on the road as they were above .500 in true road tilts (6-5 record). Included in those were a win over SMU who absolutely would have been in this tourney had they been eligible and @ Oklahoma State back when the Cowboys were at full strength. The Canes also had a few tight road losses against tourney teams including a 2-point loss @ UConn and an OT loss @ Temple. Michigan relies as heavily on the 3 as almost any team in this tourney which can make it tough away from home. If they aren’t hitting from deep, they basically don’t win. The Wolves aren’t a great rebounding team and they get to the line as infrequently as almost anyone in the country. Tulsa is the better defensive team and they get the majority of their points from inside the arc which is more reliable in our opinion. We have this game power rated much closer to “even” and we like Tulsa.
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03-15-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne +11.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 55-79 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* IPFW +11.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET The Aztecs are in a tough spot here. They were the best team in the MWC all season long but lost in the conference final late Saturday night. It was a back and forth game with Fresno but SDSU lost 68-63. Even after that, the Aztecs were expecting an at large bid to the Big Dance but it never came. This team is devastated. Take a look at the San Diego Union Tribune newspaper. The talk is about why the Aztecs missed the NCAA and what they could have done to make it. Almost nothing in making the NIT and playing IPFW. The tough part here is they have no time to get over this and come to the realization they are playing IPFW. Just 72 hours after losing to Fresno and just 48 hours after finding out they won’t be included in the Dance, they must focus and play a solid team that finished tied for 1st place in the Summit League. IPFW is thrilled to be in this game. Any post-season appearance is huge for this program. They wanted to play a “name” program in the NIT and they got just that. The Mastadons are a very dangerous team because they shoot the ball so well. They are the 9th best 3-point shooting team in the nation and they have the 21st best eFG% in the country. San Diego State is obviously very good but their offense is below average (291st nationally in eFG%) which makes it tough for them to win games big. Since December 30th, this Aztec team has only won 6 games by more than 12 points. Many of their games were undecided late and they found ways to win. We expect that to happen again here, but with the number sitting above 10, IPFW gets the cover. |
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03-15-16 | Florida v. North Florida +8 | Top | 97-68 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Florida +8 over Florida, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET This is easily the biggest home game in the history of North Florida basketball. The Ospreys are expecting an “overflow” sellout crowd tonight. They are thrilled to be here and their coach, Matthew Driscoll, threw an NIT selection party for this team on Sunday night. The Gators, on the other hand, are not thrilled with how this season played out. This is a team that has made the NCAA tourney in 5 of their last 6 seasons (entering this year) and that was their goal. They came up short and we’re guessing they are not all that excited about having to travel to Jacksonville to play North Florida tonight. Players follow their head coach’s leadership and it’s quite obvious Gator head man Mike White is not thrilled to be here. His “considering the circumstances it’s a chance for our younger players to get better,” statement was not a ringing endorsement for the Gators NIT excitement. UNF is a dangerous team because they are very motivated and they are experienced (2 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up). Four of their seven “regulars” are from the state of Florida making this game very meaningful. The Ospreys are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation (84 PPG) and one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation (7th nationally at 41%). The Gators do not defend the arc very well (163rd nationally & 12th in the SEC) and they struggle offensively. This is a tough spot for Florida playing in a smaller arena they are not used to in a game they really don’t want to be in. We think this game goes to the wire and we grab the points. |
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03-14-16 | South Carolina State v. Grand Canyon -13 | Top | 74-78 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Grand Canyon -13 over South Carolina State, Monday at 10::30 PM ET Grand Canyon finished tied for 2nd place in the WAC this year with Cal State Bakersfield (in the Big Dance) just behind New Mexico State. GC was not allowed to take part in the WAC tourney as it was their first year in the league and they are transitioning to Division 1. This team is VERY excited to be included in the CIT and happy to host a game. SC State has to travel west which most likely will conclude a brutal stretch. While GC has been off since March 5th, SC State will now be playing their 4th game in 5 days. They made it to the Championship of the MEAC on Saturday night – played in Virginia – where they lost to Hampton 81-69. The Bulldogs played Thursday & Friday as well making it 3 games in 3 days. Now on 1 day rest after a disappointing loss with a chance to go to the Dance, they must make the long flight to Phoenix to play tonight. They play a Grand Canyon team that played host to the MEAC champion this year (Hampton) and beat them by 12. In fact, Antelopes played 3 teams from the MEAC this season and won those games by 12 (vs the MEAC Champion – Hampton), 29, and 21 points. SC State is a very poor defensive team (321st in defensive efficiency) and they are poor on the boards. GC is solid in both areas and rested. Throw in the fact this is a late 10:30 PM ET start and this one looks like it could be a blowout and we’re on it. Lay it with Grand Canyon on Monday night. |
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03-13-16 | Kentucky -3.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 82-77 | Win | 102 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -3.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is the match up Kentucky was hoping for. They absolutely wanted another shot at A&M. These two met once this season in late February @ A&M and the Aggies won by 2 in OT. It was a controversial ending when Kentucky’s Isaac Humphries was called for a technical foul in the final 10 seconds allowing the Aggies to pick up a win. Jamaal Murray summed up the Cats thoughts heading into this game. “We’re looking forward to it. A lot of guys want this game.” One of Kentucky’s top players, Alex Poythress, didn’t play in that game but he is back from an injury and on the court again. Derek Willis played in that loss, however he missed a few games following due to an injury and he is now back. Kentucky is healthy and playing their best basketball of the year winning easily in their first two games vs solid and desperate teams (Alabama & Georgia). In their only meeting @ A&M, the Cats actually outshot (better %) the Aggies from both inside and outside the arc. The problem was A&M was able to attempt 18 more shots helped in part by their 18 offensive boards (to just 5 for Kentucky). That was an aberration as the Cats are the better rebounding team (11th nationally in offensive rebound %) and will be helped immensely on the boards with Poythress back in the line up. If UK can shore that up and even keep the boards even (we think they’ll have an advantage) they should win this game comfortably. Kentucky has NBA talent all over the floor and when motivated & healthy, they are very, very good. They are both today and we’ll lay the small number. |
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03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -7 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -7 over Michigan, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They played their first game of this tourney yesterday and it was an absolute blowout as they whipped Illinois 89-58. What that means is none of the Boilermakers were “taxed” physically or mentally. They should be really fresh here. In fact no player played more than 24 minutes and they had 10 players log at least 11 minutes. Compare that to Michigan who played back to back emotionally draining games beating NW in OT on Thursday followed up by upsetting Indiana by 3 on Friday. The Wolverines came from 5 down in the final 1:00 yesterday to get the win. Michigan’s key players have logged big minutes over the last two days (Irvin 77 minutes, Walton 77 minutes, Abdur-Rahkman 75 minutes, and Robinson 68 minutes) and now will be playing their third game in three days. It’s the same situation Illinois was in yesterday and Purdue, the best rebounding team in the Big Ten, destroyed them on the boards (+20). The same will be the case here as the poor rebounding Michigan team will now have dead legs. Also similar to the Illini situation, Purdue lost @ Michigan in February by 5 points to you can bet the Boilers will be extra motivated. While we don’t expect PU to shoot 58% as they did on Friday, we do expect them to be solid on offense facing a Michigan team that ranks 13th in the Big Ten in eFG% defense. Michigan might hang around for awhile but as they run out of gas in the 2nd half, Purdue pulls away. |
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03-11-16 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -1 | Top | 90-86 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Bonnies -1 over Davidson, Friday at 9:00 PM ET This is a huge game for St Bonnies. They are squarely on the bubble and one certain ESPN analysts with the initials J.L. has them as one of the last 4 in. They can’t afford a loss here. The Bonnies are rested and ready to go. They haven’t played since Saturday and this team is rolling winning 10 of their last 11. Davidson played last night beating the A10’s worst team LaSalle. Three of their five starters played 34+ minutes so fatigue could be an issue here. Davidson relies heavily on the 3 point shot but St Bonnies has the “D” to slow them down ranking 2nd in the conference in defending the arc. Offensively St Bonnies should have their way here as they are the most efficient offense in the A10 while the Davidson defense ranks 13th in that category. In their lone meeting this year STB put up nearly 100 points in a 97-85 win. With the number sitting where it is, we simply need an outright win. We’ll take St Bonaventure. |
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03-11-16 | Pistons +4 v. Hornets | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
#503 - Detroit Pistons +4 over Charlotte Hornets - 6PM CT Tonight we will side with the Detroit Pistons and the points over host Charlotte. At first glance these two teams are both running hot right now but looking closer we feel Charlotte's run is a little misleading based on who they've beaten. The Hornets are 8-2 SU their last 10 games but the two losses came to teams with winning records (Hawks and Cavs) and they only have two wins over a team with winning record (Indiana) in that stretch. Detroit on the other hand is 6-2 SU their last eight games with wins over Toronto, Portland and Dallas. Toronto and Portland are better than Charlotte in our power rankings while Dallas is a little worse. Detroit is better than the league average in road point differentials at -3PPG and have two won 3 of their last five away. This will be just the second meeting of the season for these two teams with Charlotte winning the first match up at home by 20. The Pistons get a measure of revenge here and pull the upset. |
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03-11-16 | Illinois v. Purdue -11 | Top | 58-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Illinois, Friday at 2:30 PM ET Purdue is rested and ready to go while the Illini are playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Yesterday’s down to the wire game with Iowa should leave Illinois with heavy legs today. Four of their five starters played 30+ minutes in that 2-point win. That’s bad news against a physical Purdue team that would have a huge advantage on the boards even if the Illini were fresh. The Boilers are the top rebounding team in the Big Ten and Illinois is one of the worst. Iowa was +10 on the boards yesterday and gathered a whopping 42% of their misses. The problem was the Hawks shot poorly and didn’t take care of the ball (18 turnovers). The Boilers will also be extra motivated here as they played their worst game of the Big Ten season in their only meeting with Illinois this year. The Illini won by 14 at home back in early January. In that game, a poor shooting Illini team (11th in the league in eFG%), hit 54% of their shots overall and 52% of their 3’s. They were also +14 made FT’s. The Boilers dominated the boards and took 12 more shots in the game. The tables turn here as a rested and motivated Purdue team takes out their frustrations on a tired Illini team. Lay it. |