*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills offense isn't quite what it once was. Josh Allen is really banged up right now. Allen is still great, but he doesn't quite have the same game breaking ability he has when he is healthy. The Bills wide receivers are shorthanded in a big way and that puts a lot more pressure on the run game. 

Denver's defense was first in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. The Broncos do a good job keeping things in front of them. This Broncos defense should be well prepared for the Bills attack.

Buffalo averaged only 5.5 yards per play last week. They put up just 12 points against the Eagles in a late season game too. 

Denver's offense is inconsistent. I don't trust Bo Nix to make all the right decisions in the key moments. The Broncos should run the ball well here, but I think they could be pretty one dimensional.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns defense has been excellent at home, and they have been subpar on the road. Cleveland is giving up more than 27 points per game on the road.

Cincinnati's defense is allowing 6.5 yards per play at home this year. They are giving up more than 30 points per game on their home turf.

The Bengals offense is humming right now with a healthy Joe Burrow and an offensive line that is playing better. Burrow has been excellent the last two weeks, and I think he'll play very well again here.

The Browns offense isn't very good, but the Bengals defense has made a lot of bad offenses look pretty good this year. I think Sanders and company can do enough, and I am trusting the Bengals to score quite a few here.

The weather forecast calls for nearly no wind in this one which is a big plus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders defense is superb. Shiel Wood is a top three defensive coordinator in the country. He is a defensive wizard. Texas Tech is first nationally in PPA/rush and YPC this season. They are third in success rate allowed on defense. They are #2 nationally in pass rush grade at PFF. The defensive front is arguably the best in the nation. They dominated both Utah and BYU's offensive lines that are very good.

Oregon's offense was very good this year, but when they stepped up in class they did struggle. Oregon only scored 18 points at Iowa. They had just 17 points in regulation against Penn State. They put up only 4.2 yards per play at home against Indiana.

Texas Tech's offense has been very inconsistent. Morton is fine, but he isn't a big playmaker. The Red Raiders rushing attack is subpar. Oregon is weakest against the run, but I don't think Texas Tech can take advantage of that.

Oregon is playing slower this year. Texas Tech is an under team. I expect a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* LSU is 134th in explosive play rate this year. Without Nussmeier, the LSU offense is clearly much worse. LSU couldn't score on Western Kentucky a few weeks ago. Van Buren is a scrambler who has a lot to prove. LSU has played at a very slow pace all year as well. Houston's defense is 54th in explosiveness allowed, and they have been good on the whole this season.

Houston's offense might be without a couple key starters here. The Houston offense is 115th in points per scoring opportunity. I don't see this as an explosive offense. LSU will be down several defenders here, but they do have good depth on the defensive side of the ball.

This game is lacking big play makers on offense. The LSU defense is still a quality unit. The Houston defense has been pretty good this year, and LSU's offense has been a mess. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers and New Mexico Lobos are both bottom 25 in the country in pace of play. Minnesota can likely move the ball some here, but they are 133rd nationally in explosiveness, so I don't think they'll pick up many big plays. The New Mexico defense is an impressive 22nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity. 

The New Mexico Lobos are accustomed to having an advantage with their offensive line, but I think the Big Ten strength of the Minnesota defensive front will be tough for them to handle. 

Minnesota could be without their top two running backs here. New Mexico has turned it over a lot in the red zone, and they should struggle to finish drives. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals have made a habit out of getting into some crazy high shootouts of late. Arizona has seen 60 points or more scored in four of their last six games. They have only had one game in the last six finish below 51 points. Arizona's defense is being shredded on a weekly basis, but Jacoby Brissett and company have been good in catch up mode.

Atlanta's offense is ninth in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. Kirk Cousins is playing pretty good football right now. Drake London is probable for this game and that would really help the offense a lot too. Kyle Pitts is having some breakout performances of late as well. 

It appears Marvin Harrison Jr. will be back for the Cardinals offense here too. He's a big play guy who can really change the Arizona offense.

On the fast track with two struggling defenses and two QB's who have been trending upward of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns have the best defense in the NFL at home. They have been shutting down even strong opponents when at home. The Browns offense is still a big weakness. Four of the Browns last five games have finished below this posted total.

The Bills have a very good offense, but they are likely to run the football quite a bit here. I don't expect to see many deep throws and their tempo should be relatively slow.

The weather matters a lot in Cleveland, and it is expected to be quite windy for this game. Sustained winds of 23 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph are in the forecast here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense is healthy again. They have one of the best wide receiver groups in the NFL when healthy, and I think the Panthers will have a hard time shutting down this passing attack. Baker Mayfield himself is healthier as well, and Irving being back in the backfield as a big play maker is crucial.

Carolina's offense has looked better of late. Bryce Young and the offense got it going at home against the Rams a couple weeks ago. They have scored 30 points or more in two of their last four games.

These two defenses are both bottom eight in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bucs offense is far better than their season to date stats would suggest since they are finally much healthier. The Panthers offense is playing with confidence now too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners have a top three defense in the country. Oklahoma is 2nd in success rate allowed. They are 1st in rushing success rate allowed. Oklahoma is also third in havoc created, while Alabama is 27th in havoc rate allowed. The Alabama offensive line has played very poorly in recent weeks. 

Ty Simpson is a good quarterback. He hasn't been getting much help from the wide receivers. It also seems Simpson is less than 100% healthy. Williams at WR is definitely banged up too. Alabama's offense has been out of sorts for quite a while now. They scored only 20 at home against LSU. They had just 280 yards of offense against Auburn. They could muster only 7 points against Georgia.

The Oklahoma offense has been a mess as well. Oklahoma had just 212 total yards in the first meeting against Alabama. They were aided by Alabama turnovers in their scoring 23 points. Oklahoma put up only 17 points against Missouri and 17 points against LSU in their last game. John Mateer hasn't been the same since his injury and surgery. The Sooners are 106th in rushing success rate, and that has been the lone way to beat the Alabama defense during this season.

The weather here is interesting as well. A blend of three forecasts calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts in the 30-35 mph range. That should change the game a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks host the LA Rams in what is one of the biggest games of the season thus far in the NFL. 

Seattle and LA are both top five in the NFL in yards per play. They are also 1st and 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

The first game between these two was 21-19 in a hard fought battle in Los Angeles. Now, they play in Seattle tonight in some pretty poor weather conditions. 

A blend of three forecasts calls for 20 mph winds at kickoff with gusts to 39 mph. The winds will calm some during the game. In the latter part of the game the winds should be in the 14 mph area with gusts to 25 mph. There are flood warnings in the area too, and off and on rain should change the game too. A combination of wind and some rain does change the game a great deal. 

Seattle's defense is only giving up 3.8 yards per play at home this season.

Lumen Field is 5-2 to the under with winds of 10 mph or higher. The winds will be significantly higher than that tonight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Delaware Blue Hens defense has been overmatched against good rushing attacks. Delaware has allowed a whopping 23 rushes of 20 yards or more this season. That's among the worst in the nation. Whether it is Lunch Winfield or Walker Howard, I would expect Louisiana to be able to move the ball well in this one.

Delaware's offense is top 25 in plays per minute. They'll push the pace and get plenty of plays off in this one. The Louisiana defense is 127th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. Delaware's passing attack is likely to move the ball pretty easily in this game.

Delaware played a 61-31 game against UTEP. They played a 59-30 game against Liberty. They gave up 52 points and a whopping 9.7 yards per play against a very mediocre Wake Forest offense.

I think both teams score quite a bit here.

Take the over. 

*Note this line has moved up some since I took this last week. I like this one as long as it is below 63. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely have to have this one. Kansas City has been great on defense at home this season. They are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at home. The under is 6-1 in their 7 home games. 

The LA Chargers are 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on the road. This Chargers offense is very banged up right now. The offensive line in front of Herbert is badly banged up and Herbert himself is banged up as well. The Chiefs should be able to slow them down. On the other side though, the Chargers defense is playing great football right now. 

This projects as a hard fought game where the defenses have the upper hand. The extremely low temperatures with a wind chill of 10 degrees or lower at times could be a benefit too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech defense has flown under the radar a bit, but this is a dominant defense that deserves a ton of credit. Shiel Wood is one of the very best defensive coordinators in the country. Texas Tech is third in the nation in defensive success rate. The Red Raiders are 4th in explosiveness allowed. They are also first nationally in both yards per carry allowed and PPA/rush allowed. They are 4th in points per opportunity allowed, so they are keeping opponents out of the end zone.

BYU likes to run the football a bunch with Bachmeier and Martin, but it is very tough to do against this Red Raider defensive front. BYU is 34th in rushing play success rate on offense, and they are running the ball on 56.5% of their offensive plays. They are just 70th in red zone touchdown percentage on offense. BYU is 102nd in pass success rate on offense. They are up against a Texas Tech defense that is 4th in pass play success rate allowed.

BYU defensively is solid as well. They are 30th in success rate allowed. They are 25th in explosiveness allowed. BYU is 8th in red zone TD percentage allowed on defense. 

The first game between these two saw both teams average less than 5 yards per play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Steelers and Bills both have offensive line injuries. Spencer Brown is doubtful here. Broderick Jones is out for this one. 

The Steelers defense has actually improved on a yards per play basis in recent weeks. They have also played a lot better on their home field. 

The Bills defense is a little below average, but they aren't giving up all that many big plays. The Steelers offense is questionable with Rodgers either playing at less than 100% or Rudolph playing.

The weather here should matter too with steady rain and winds of 15 mph and gusts to 21 mph making this an ugly game where the offenses are up against it.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars have been a great under team in the last half of the season. Washington State is playing at a bottom ten tempo out of all 136 teams in the country. Washington State is a very run heavy offense that doesn't take many shots down the field.

Oregon State is 13th in stuff rate on defense and 17th in defensive line yards. Robb Akey's defense is actually not a bad unit. They are 34th in success rate allowed.

Washington State's defense has been excellent in the back half of the season. They are 30th in points per scoring opportunity allowed too, and Oregon State is 123rd in points per scoring opportunity on offense. 

These two just played each other a couple weeks ago and it was 10-7. I expect the defenses to have the upper hand once again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane host the UAB Blazers on Saturday in the season finale for both teams. 

UAB has had some major problems inside the football program at the end of the season. It's hard to say how motivated they will be in this one. UAB is only averaging 19 points per game in their last three games. The Tulsa defense has been decent this year, and they don't give up too many big plays.

UAB's defense isn't good, but Tulsa is inconsistent on offense. The Golden Hurricanes often struggle to throw the ball.

The weather forecast here is a big reason why I find this play valuable. The current forecast calls for rain throughout the game and it could be heavy at times. The winds are expected to be sustained at 20 mph with gusts to 31 mph. That kind of weather changes a game significantly. The play calling should be more conservative with more running of the football.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been much better in recent weeks. They are fighting hard to the finish in what has been a terrible season. They have a new head coach on the way and I think they can play hard one more time.

Iowa State's defense has played a bit better of late. They are 46th in defensive success rate. They are 35th in PPA/rush allowed. The run defense is the strength of the team. Iowa State has seen 3 of their last 5 games finish 43 points or lower.

Oklahoma State's last two games have been 31 and 20 points total. The Cowboys offense is 131st in the nation in success rate. The Cowboys are likely to have to run here, and that is their biggest weakness.

The weather is a big part of the handicap. Sustained winds of 23 mph with gusts to 38 mph are in the forecast for this one. That should make both teams far more conservative. A lot of running and the clock keeps moving. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force is without quarterback Liam Szarka and he was the huge key to their offense which was a huge success for much of the season. They were only able to muster 3 points and 2.7 yards per play against New Mexico last week without him. 

Remember earlier in the year when Air Force had loads of high scoring games? Air Force has now played in five straight games that have finished with a total of 45 points or less. The Falcons defense has gradually played better, but their offense has no explosiveness now.

Colorado State is very poor on offense too. The Rams don't have the speed on the outside to take advantage of the Air Force secondary weaknesses. 

A slow paced game with a lot of running of the football.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals have been moving the ball very well with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The problem is Brissett and the Cardinals have been turning the ball over a lot and putting the opposition in good scoring spots. 

Arizona is putting up 5.6 yards per play in their last three games. This Jaguars defense is a below average defense. 

Jacksonville has scored 30, 29, and 35 points in their last three games. Trevor Lawrence is playing better, and the offensive line play has improved. Arizona's defense has slipped of late, giving up 5.6 yards per play in their last three games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers may have the worst power 5 offense in the country. They can't complete passes, and their offensive line isn't nearly as strong as it was in past seasons. Illinois defensively has struggled badly against the pass,  but they are solid against the run. That is a good matchup for Wisconsin, since the Badgers passing attack has been nearly non existent. Illinois is 47th in YPC allowed and 27th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Illinois is just 62nd in explosiveness on offense. The Fighting Illini are likely to struggle to run against the Badgers defense that is 27th in YPC allowed.

Wisconsin has had 7 straight games go under this low total. I think this will be an 8th straight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force was an absolute over team earlier this year. The defense is still bad, but they have gotten a bit better. They were allowing more than 8 yards per play in the first half of the season, and they are at 6.4 YPP allowed in their last three games. They actually played pretty well against a good UConn offense last week.

Air Force star quarterback Liam Szarka was injured last week (fracture in hand/arm of throwing arm). Air Force coach said Szarka likely out for the season. The Falcons offense had been struggling a little more of late, and without Szarka this simply isn't the same offense. New Mexico has been excellent at stopping the run. The Lobos are 20th in Defensive Line yards. They are 24th in YPC allowed and 20th in rushing explosiveness allowed. New Mexico's weakness has been against the pass, but with Szarka out Air Force is severely limited through the air.

New Mexico is playing at a very slow pace, and the Lobos offense is just 105th in rushing explosiveness. 

Both of these teams will run the football a bunch here, and this total hasn't been adjusted enough for Szarka's injury.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners are a completely different team at home. UTSA's offense is on a whole different level at home on their fast track in the dome. UTSA is averaging 48.3 points per game at home. They are also allowing 27.3 points per game at home. UTSA is accustomed to track meets on their home turf. Owen McCown has been poor on the road, but at home he has a 74.4% completion percentage and a 13/0 touchdown to interception ratio. 

East Carolina wants to play as fast as possible. They are top three in the nation in all pace metrics. The Pirates want to throw the ball a ton too, and that is a good fit for this one since UTSA is terrible against the pass. UTSA is 114th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed. UTSA is also 124th in passing explosiveness allowed. Katin Houser's numbers are better on the road than home, and he should play very well here. UTSA's red zone defense has been a big weakness all season long. 

Both teams will be airing it out and East Carolina will push the tempo in a big way. This game should go down to the wire. I expect both offenses to put up a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have a real opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. It is their defense that has been extremely dominant. James Madison is first in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 5th in explosiveness allowed. They are also 8th in havoc created.

Washington State has been a great under team of late thanks to a couple key things. First, they are playing at an extremely slow pace. Washington State is bottom five in the country in tempo in the last month. They also are only 122nd in yards per play on offense. They are 127th in explosiveness on offense. Second, Washington State has really improved on defense of late. They have allowed just 3.6 yards per play in their last three games (3rd nationally). Washington State is allowing only 11.5 points per game in their last six games and two of those games were against Ole Miss and Virginia.

Both teams are run heavy, and I expect the clock to be moving quickly here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals defense is very good. Louisville is 12th in success rate allowed this season. The Cardinals are 9th in PPA/pass allowed. They are 6th best in passing down success rate allowed. SMU is a pass heavy team. The Mustangs have the 20th highest percentage of plays being a pass of anyone in the country. Louisville is 33rd best in the country in explosiveness allowed. 

The SMU defense has been excellent all season. SMU is 3rd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. The Mustangs should shut down the run game here. SMU can be thrown on at times, but they are still 35th in PPA/pass. The important factor for me here is Louisville's offensive line is very weak. They are 87th in havoc allowed. SMU is 6th nationally in havoc created. They should be in the backfield here.

Louisville has a quarterback problem with Miller Moss playing poorly and questions about who will play QB this game.

I see both defenses with an advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns still have a strong defense, but the offense is really lacking. The passing game for Cleveland is often non existent in key moments. At times they can get the running game going, but I expect the Ravens to load up the box here and dare Cleveland to throw the ball.

Baltimore's offense is a very good one, but they are primarily good at running the ball. Cleveland is second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. At home this year, Cleveland is allowing a league best 3.0 yards per carry.

The weather in Cleveland is a big factor here. Sunday's forecast calls for 23 mph sustained winds with gusts to 37 mph. That will make it very tough to throw the ball down the field. A more conservative game plan.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense has been elite this year. They are coming off their worst performance of the season at Hawaii. I expect a big bounce back from them here. San Diego State is allowing just 10.3 points per game at home this year. The Aztecs are 2nd in PPA/pass allowed and 10th in PPA/rush allowed this year.

San Diego State will be up against a backup quarterback for Boise State. The Broncos were held to 7 points by Fresno State at home in their last game. 

Boise State is 13th nationally in success rate allowed.

This is a huge game for both teams in the Mountain West Conference race. I expect both defenses to be ready to go. 

A rare poor weather day in San Diego is expected here. A 90% chance of rain is forecast here, and there is a flood watch for Saturday. There are winds of 12-18 mph expected too. This is a grass surface and it could be in rough shape.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina offense started the year horribly, but with Samari Collier this offense has taken off. Collier is a dual threat quarterback who is a very solid runner. The rushing explosiveness in the Chanticleers offense has really made a huge difference. Coastal Carolina has scored 45, 44, and 40 points in their last three games.

Now, Coastal Carolina goes up against one of the worst run defenses in the country. Georgia Southern is 135th out of 136 teams in YPC allowed. They are dead last at 136th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Georgia Southern plays at a quick pace. The Eagles are good at converting in the red zone, and they are 40th in rushing success rate and 30th in pass play success rate on offense. Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 37, 27, and 27 points in their last three games. Coastal is 120th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The season long numbers for Coastal's offense don't matter anymore, with Collier this is a good offense that is playing quickly.

Take the over. 

(This number has moved a bit during the week- I would still bet this for 4 stars as high as 60 and a 3 star rating above 60. Thank you) 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers defense has played pretty well with Coach Akey as the interim head coach. They held Washington State to 7 points and then held Sam Houston State to just 157 yards (Sam Houston scored 2 special teams TD's in that game). 

Oregon State's offense plays slowly, and they aren't explosive at all. Johnson doesn't throw the ball down the field. They are reliant on Hankerson hammering away to get 4 yards or so on the ground. 

Tulsa is very inefficient on offense. This team hasn't found a good quarterback all season, and they struggle badly in the red zone.

The long term weather forecast calls for rain and heavy winds here on Saturday. I would play the under without that weather, but it is a nice extra bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Ball State Cardinals square off in a MAC battle on Saturday afternoon.

The weather in Muncie Indiana looks very windy for this game. The current blend of three forecasts calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 33 mph during this game. That kind of wind can change a game in a big way.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they have definitely improved in MAC play. Eastern Michigan has actually seen 5 of 6 MAC games stay below this posted total in regulation.

Ball State has one of the worst offenses in the nation.  Ball State is 133rd in offensive success rate. They are just 118th in explosiveness on offense too. Four of Ball State's five MAC games have finished at 42 combined points or lower.

Games with average winds of 10 mph or more at Ball State are 22-11 to the under in the last 33.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats are 135th out of 136 teams in the country in plays per minute. Northwestern is slowing the game down in a big way. They are 40th in rush rate, so the clock should be moving while they try to run the ball here. 

Michigan is 14th in YPC allowed and 14th in rushing explosiveness allowed. The Wolverines aren't likely to give up many big plays here. Northwestern is a miserable 129th in points per scoring opportunity on offense too, so when they get into scoring position they have struggled to cash in with touchdowns.

Michigan's offense has been inconsistent this year. Michigan will play slowly as well and they are pretty conservative with their play calling. Northwestern is 41st in points per scoring opportunity allowed. They are a solid red zone defense.

The winds here could play a role in Wrigley Field. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph are expected. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers host the LA Rams at Levi's Stadium. This stadium is known for being a grass field, and divisional games here have played strongly toward the under. In fact, the last seven times the Rams played at the 49ers and the total was higher than 44: the under is 6-1 with an average margin of more than a touchdown toward the under.

The Rams defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Rams have been solid in all aspects of the game on the defensive side of the ball.

The 49ers have only played one game that went over this total all season long. They don't have the explosiveness on offense that they normally have when their wide receivers are healthy. They are more conservative in their play calling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams both prefer to play at a much slower pace than the national average. 

Florida is 89th in the nation in explosive play rate on offense. The Gators are 113th in passing play success rate. They rely more on running the ball. Kentucky is 31st in YPC allowed and 36th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

I've been very impressed by the Florida defense this year. The Gators are 25th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 37th best at preventing explosive plays. Kentucky is just 126th in explosive play rate offensively. The Wildcats are very poor in the red zone offensively. 

Two teams who are better on defense than offense and both teams are playing slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers offense is terrible. Wisconsin is averaging 6.75 points per game in their last four games. Wisconsin is 133rd in the nation in tempo, so they are stalling in a big way. Wisconsin is 135th out of 136 teams in the country in explosive play rate on offense. They are also 134th in points per scoring opportunity, so they are awful at cashing in if they ever do get down deep into opponents territory.

Washington struggled offensively badly at Maryland and at Michigan. The Huskies offense hasn't looked the same on the road. Washington is 80th in tempo. The Wisconsin secondary has been poor, but the run defense is above average.

The Washington defense is 21st in explosiveness allowed. They are 35th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

The weather here could be a factor. The forecast calls for some rain showers that could even turn to snow showers later in the game. The winds will be picking up later in the game. Sustained winds of 12 mph late in the game with gusts to 19 mph are expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has been amazing the last few weeks. They held Virginia to just 10 points in regulation. They held Cal to 291 yards of offense. They didn't allow a defensive touchdown against Syracuse last week. This unit has really put it together of late.

North Carolina has played very slow on offense. The Tar Heels are 121st in the nation in tempo. They played at an extremely slow pace last week with the lead. They are favored in this game as well. 

These two offenses are 125th and 112th in the nation (out of 136 teams) in yards per play on offense. They are 121st and 125th in the country in explosiveness on offense as well. 

Both of these teams have been dreadful at finishing drives. They are 127th and 119th in the country in points per scoring opportunity on offense. 

A slow pace and two offenses who struggle to hit big plays or cash in when in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are a completely different offense with new quarterback Samari Collier leading the way. Collier is a really good runner who has made some good passes in the system as well. Coastal Carolina has scored 45 and 44 points in the last two games after struggling badly to score earlier this year. 

Georgia State plays quickly, but they are a really weak defense. They have allowed 41, 41, and 38 points in their last three games. I think they'll give up a lot again here.

Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 27 points or more in three of their last four games. 

Both teams play at an above average pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Arkansas State is heavily reliant on the passing game, and Southern Miss is excellent in the secondary. Southern Miss is 19th in passing play success rate allowed. Southern Miss is 20th at PFF in coverage grade. Southern Miss is 42nd in passing explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss is 10th nationally in pass rush grade. Arkansas State is 119th in havoc allowed. The Red Wolves have a low early downs EPA on offense. I think Raynor and Arkansas State will be in a lot of bad spots on offense.

Arkansas State has improved a lot defensively of late. The Red Wolves have allowed 14, 24, and 10 points in their last three games. They gave up just 2.8 yards per play to Troy a week ago. Their run defense has improved drastically in the last three contests. 

Neither of these offenses have been very good at hitting big plays. Above a couple key numbers, I'll go to the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts have been the top offense in the NFL to this point in the season. Many people keep predicting this offense will slow down, but it hasn't happened. The offensive line is elite. The running game is excellent. Jones has been very good in the passing game too. The overall balance they have on offense along with the forward thinking play calling is tough to stop. The Colts are scoring 33.8 points per game so far this season. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are averaging 25 points per game. The Steelers offense hasn't been the problem in their recent losses. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have been above average. While the Colts offense is elite, the defense has been mediocre. The secondary is especially beatable, and they are just 21st at PFF in coverage grade. 

The Steelers no longer have that top notch defense we remember them for in recent seasons. Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the NFL in run defense and coverage grade at PFF. They are allowing 25 points per game. 

Three Steelers games have already reached 60 total points this year. The Colts have had five games with 52 points or more this season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers are second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I still believe this Packers defense is a very solid one. They have played a tough schedule of opposing offenses thus far. This is a step down for them. 

Carolina is bottom five in the NFL in total offense and nearly all the advanced metrics. The Panthers have a cluster injury issue on the offensive line too. Bryce Young will be back here, but he is less than 100% and playing behind a banged up offensive line. This is a dangerous spot for the Carolina offense. 

Carolina's defense has been top 12 in the NFL in the last three games. While I don't think their defense is good overall, they don't give up explosives nearly as much as the average team.

The wind in this game could change the game some too. Sustained winds will grow to 18 mph or so during the game with gusts hitting 30 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma defense is clearly good, but they aren't as good as they looked on paper. They hadn't faced a good offense so far this season, and Ole Miss rolled up 431 yards and 34 points on the Sooners. 

Tennessee plays at the second fastest pace of any team in the nation. The Volunteers are 12th in the nation in yards per play (Ole Miss is 25th), and I expect Tennessee to have success on offense here. Joey Aguilar has been great at home, and the Volunteers backfield is very good.

John Mateer has explosiveness in both the run and passing game, and the Vols defense has given up big plays all year. Oklahoma is 42nd quickest in the nation in tempo too, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers put up 33 points on Arkansas last week. Arkansas is a horrible defense, and even then Auburn only averaged 5.4 yards per play in that game. Arkansas turned the ball over 4 times and gave Auburn quite a few of those points. 

Auburn made a quarterback change to Ashton Daniels during the game last week. Daniels looked a bit better than Jackson Arnold in limited time, but I don't think he is going to fix this offense. Auburn is 116th in yards per pass attempt. They are 135th in sacks allowed per game. We don't know who the quarterback will be, but whoever it is will be playing behind a poor offensive line. 

Kentucky needs to run the football on offense to have much success. The Wildcats are 118th in passing play success rate on offense. They are 103rd overall in yards per play. Auburn is elite at stopping the run. They are 3rd nationally in YPC allowed. They are also third in rushing success rate allowed. They should stuff Kentucky on the ground.

These two teams are 99th and 119th in explosive play rate on offense. Neither offense is good in the red zone either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have really impressed me on defense this year. Jake Dickert's team is playing really hard on that side of the ball. 

Wake Forest is first in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed this year. The Demon Deacons are 11th in success rate allowed. They are 16th best in the nation in explosiveness allowed. 

Florida State is 33rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Seminoles are 30th in explosiveness allowed overall and 11th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Wake Forest is reliant on breaking big running plays, and the Seminoles appear set to slow that down. Wake Forest is just 123rd in the nation in offensive success rate.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense is dominant in every way. San Diego State is 4th in defensive success rate allowed. They haven't allowed a play of 50 yards or more all season (only 4 teams in the country can say this), and they are second best in the country in points per opportunity allowed. They don't give up big plays and are really tough in the red zone. They are fantastic against both the run and the pass. San Diego State has already held three teams to 0 points this season.

Wyoming's defense is top 5 in the country in points per opportunity allowed. Wyoming is also solid at not allowing explosive plays. The Cowboys are 18th nationally in explosiveness allowed. On offense, Wyoming is 108th in PPA/rush and 102nd in QBR. They are just 106th in explosiveness on offense.

San Diego State is bottom ten in the nation in tempo. The Aztecs are happy to run the football a bunch with a lead and keep the clock moving. That should be the case in the latter stages of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos are a solid under team. They are a slow paced team that lacks explosivity on offense. They are 95th in the nation in tempo. They are 127th in explosiveness on offense. Western Michigan also has one of the best defenses in the MAC though. The Broncos are 15th nationally in yards per play allowed.

Central Michigan is one of the most run heavy teams in the country. They are 132nd out of 136 teams in the country in tempo. They are happy to shorten the game. 
These two teams are 104th and 92nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils will be without Sam Leavitt in this one. Leavitt is a really good QB and the drop off to backup Jeff Sims is a really big one. Jordyn Tyson is one of the best wide receivers in the country and he is considered doubtful for this game. Kyson Brown is out at RB as well. Center Ben Coleman will also miss this game.

Arizona State's game plan on offense should be far more conservative than it has been for the season overall. While others have taken advantage of the Iowa State injuries in the secondary, with Arizona State being so shorthanded I don't think they can do the same.

Arizona State's highest scoring game against an FBS opponent this year has been a total of 52 points. Their last two games have both been low scoring. 

Iowa State has been very poor in red zone offense. The Cyclones are just 78th nationally in explosiveness on offense too. Arizona State's defense is 14th in havoc rate so they should keep Becht a little unsure back in the pocket. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars are a slightly below average tempo team who has shown the willingness to drastically slow their pace when they are playing from a larger lead. 

West Virginia is a fast paced team that is wildly inefficient on offense. West Virginia is 112th in success rate on offense, and in recent weeks they have been even worse than that. The Mountaineers are run heavy because they are so banged up at quarterback, but Houston is a solid run stuffing team. Houston is 28th in the nation in YPC allowed. West Virginia is 125th in PPA/pass, and I don't think they'll be able to throw it here.

Houston's offense is run heavy, but they are just 122nd in the nation in rushing success rate. West Virginia isn't good against the pass, but the Mountaineers are 37th in rushing play success rate allowed. West Virginia's red zone defense has actually been very solid this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have an excellent defense. James Madison is 2nd nationally in defensive success rate allowed. They are 4th in YPC allowed. They are 4th nationally in explosiveness allowed too. James Madison is 4th in explosiveness allowed in the run game. 

James Madison is 123rd out of 136 teams in the country in pace of play. They are running the football quite a bit and using the clock. Texas State is 15th in pace of play, so we have a pace war here. 

Texas State is 15th in pass play success rate on offense. They are only 58th in rushing play success rate on offense. The Bobcats have relied on the pass and they lack explosivity in the run game.

The weather in San Marcos is a big factor here. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts to 32 mph during this game. That really hurts Texas State's ability to throw the ball here. James Madison should run it a lot and slow the game down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals arguably have the worst defense in the NFL. It is certainly one of the bottom three or four defenses in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed 27 points or more in six straight games. 

The Jets have looked poor on offense of late, but the Bengals are the perfect opponent for Justin Fields to have a bounce back game against. He should be able to do some work on the ground and hit some big gainers through the air in this one. 

Joe Flacco is a large upgrade from Jake Browning, and the Bengals definitely have excellent targets on the outside. Sauce Gardner will miss this game, and I think Chase and Higgins should have a big game here. 

The weather looks good for this one, and I believe this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers have scored a grand total of zero points in their last two games. Billy Edwards Jr is still injured and the Badgers are rotating between Hunter Simmons and Danny O'Neil under center. Neither of them have had any kind of success leading the way at QB.

Oregon's defense is 7th in the country in explosiveness allowed. They are 1st in QBR allowed and 21st in YPC allowed.

Wisconsin's defense has struggled against the pass, but they are still good against the run. The Badgers are 32nd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. They are 4th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The weather here should be a major factor. The forecast calls for steady rain and sustained winds of 19 mph with gusts to 34 mph during the game. That will make both teams more conservative with the play calling. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Stanford was only able to put up 3 points against BYU and 10 points against SMU. Those defenses aren't better than the Miami defense. Miami is 15th in success rate allowed on defense. They are 6th in the nation in defensive line yards. They are 13th nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed. 

Stanford's quarterback Ben Gulbranson is hobbled now, but is trying to play through the injury. I think this will be a tough game for him. 

Offensively, Miami is just 117th in offensive explosiveness. Stanford is 36th in PPA/rush allowed. the Cardinal have been very solid against the run in recent weeks.

The weather here should matter. A sustained wind of 23 mph and gusts to 30 mph here. This stadium is partially covered by a canopy for the seats, but the playing surface isn't covered. The wind will matter some. There are rain showers expected at times on Saturday evening too. This playing field is grass where the rain would matter more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns offense is just not working. They managed just 3.3 yards per play against Kentucky last week. Texas is 107th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Longhorns are just 66th in offensive explosiveness as well.

Mississippi State is 22nd in opponent QBR allowed. The secondary has been excellent. The Bulldogs are 90th nationally in YPC allowed, but they are 13th in rush explosiveness allowed.

Texas has had five games that stayed below this posted total. The Longhorns defense is top notch. They are 20th in PPA/pass allowed and 9th in PPA/rush allowed. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness allowed.

Miss State is a fast paced team, but their offense has struggled against the better defenses they have faced. Texas will be the best defense they have played thus far. Miss State has played 3 of their 6 FBS opponents to a final score of 44 total points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars have drastically slowed their pace down. They rank as the second slowest paced team in the country in their last three games.

Toledo is very solid all around on defense, but the Rockets offense is very inconsistent. I've been super impressed by the Washington State defense and how they held down both Ole Miss and Virginia.

The weather in Pullman looks very poor for this game. A steady rainfall through the game and winds of 14 mph with gusts to 24 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Vanderbilt is easily first in the nation in points per opportunity- this team is cashing in bigtime on their scoring chances. Vandy 7th in rush success rate. Missouri 30th in rush success rate allowed. Vandy 7th in explosiveness in run game- Missouri 51st in rushing explosives allowed.

Missouri wants to run the football! Auburn made that very hard on them last week. Vandy is 26th in the nation in PPA/rush allowed. They are only 12th in the SEC in tackling grade at PFF though, and that concerns me some for the Vanderbilt defense with Ahmad Hardy coming at them early and often here. He’s first in the nation in yards after contact.

The two defenses are 74th and 70th in points per opportunity allowed. Vandy 1st on offense and Missouri 10th. Pace of the game will be slow, but I do think they can have success on offense in this game.

We're below a key number here, and I think Vanderbilt will push the scoring here and Missouri will do enough to get this one over the total.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks offense has been very good this year, and it has been excellent at home. Kansas put up more than 10 yards per play at home against Cincinnati. 

Kansas State is thought of as a defensive team, but this team isn't what they once were. The Wildcats are 66th nationally in yards per play allowed. They are also 92nd in explosiveness allowed. 

On the other side, Kansas has a very weak defense. The Jayhawks are 123rd in the nation in YPC allowed. They are 103rd in explosiveness allowed. 

Last year, these two teams put up 6.7 yards per play and 6.2 yards per play and got to 56 points. I think the defenses are worse this season.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland looks rough for this game. Sustained winds in the 20 mph area with gusts of 37 mph are possible during this game. We've seen how much the weather can change Cleveland Browns home games in the past, and this is another game where the weather could play a large factor.

Miami's offense isn't what it once was. The Dolphins certainly miss Tyreek Hill quite badly. The Dolphins running game has slipped in the last few games. 

Cleveland's offense is second to last in the NFL in yards per play. They are averaging just 4.1 yards per play. Now, they have to deal with the elements as well.

Dillon Gabriel isn't going to be asked to do very much in a spot like this. 

Both teams are likely to be very conservative with the play calling. I think the clock will keep running a lot here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears are middle of the pack in yards per play this year. The New Orleans Saints are 27th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago is at the bottom of the NFL in yards per play allowed, while the Saints are up at 14th best. 

The weather here should play a large role in this game. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 21 mph sustained winds with a 40% chance of showers during this game. The wind gusts during this game are expected to be in the 35-40 mph range. 

Those are intense winds and we know the Chicago games have been hit hard by winds off the lake in the past. 

I don't think either ground game is good enough to move it up and down the field consistently in these conditions. They are 20th and 24th in the NFL in yards per carry. 

These conditions make explosive plays far less likely. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in pace of play. Heupel's team is pushing the pace to the extreme as they always do. Tennessee is much worse defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons, but they have a better and more balanced offense. The Tennessee ground game should find success here. Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC allowed, and they are 125th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Ty Simpson has been amazing the last few games for the Alabama offense. Tennessee is one of the worst secondaries in the SEC. They are 81st nationally in PPA/pass. I think the Crimson Tide have a big game through the air in this one. 

These two teams have both been tremendous in the red zone at converting those trips into touchdowns. Look for them to finish the drives in this game too.

This total has come down, and I disagree with the line move.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 126th and 132nd in yards per play offensively. Akron had one good offensive game against Central Michigan, but in general they have been terrible. The Zips are 133rd in rushing explosiveness and 125th in yards per passing attempt. 

Ball State averaged 1.8 yards per play on offense last game against Western Michigan. They'll be better than that here against Akron, but the Cardinals have major offensive issues too. They are 131st in success rate on offense.

Neither of these defenses are very good overall, but they have both been pretty good in the red zone. The two offenses are terrible in the red zone as well.

As a potential bonus the long range weather calls for winds in the 20 mph range with a chance for a shower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies are a solid under team. Northern Illinois is bottom 30 in plays per game. They definitely move at a slow pace. Northern Illinois is also 135th nationally in yards per play out of 136 teams. They are averaging an ugly 4.21 yards per play. Thomas Hammock's group is pretty good defensively though. They are 44th in PPA/pass allowed and 53rd in PPA/rush allowed. 

Ohio is a below average tempo team as well. The Bobcats are top ten nationally in rushing explosiveness thanks largely to Parker Navarro. Northern Illinois though is 34th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed. Ohio is an above average MAC defense and that should be enough to stop Northern Illinois here.

These two teams are both top 16 in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd offense has been better than expected this year. Marshall's Carlos Del-Rio Wilson has 11 TD's and zero interceptions on the year. Marshall has scored 38 points or more in four straight games.

Texas State is 33rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats just allowed a very mediocre backup quarterback in Tucker Kilcrease from Troy to throw for 419 yards and 5 touchdowns. Texas State is 122nd in the nation in explosiveness allowed. Combine that with the fact that they are one of the worst red zone defenses in the country and you get a really poor defense that gives up a load of points. 

Texas State offensively is 32nd in yards per attempt on offense, and Marshall is 118th in yards per passing attempt allowed. The Bobcats offensive line has been good, and the Thundering Herd have relied on havoc to even slow down opposing offenses.

Two teams who are both in the bottom 15 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Three straight games of Marshall have gone to at least 70 total points.

Three of Texas State's games have finished with 79 points or more. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have a star quarterback in Czarka. He runs the triple option offense extremely well, and he is a much better passer than they have had in recent seasons. Air Force put up 603 yards of total offense against UNLV last week. Air Force is first in the nation in points per scoring opportunity. They are converting red zone trips into touchdowns. 

Defensively, Air Force is a complete mess. They have allowed a whopping 11 plays of 50 yards or more, and no one in the country is giving up more explosive plays. The Falcons just don't have enough speed on defense. Wyoming just had their best offensive showing last week against San Jose State, and this defense is even worse.

Wyoming is 100th in defensive line yards and 106th in yards per carry. Air Force will run all over Wyoming.

Air Force games have continually gone over the total, and most haven't even been close. I'll go to the high side again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northwestern hosts Purdue in their temporary football stadium right on Lake Michigan here. The weather plays a large role here with this right on the lake. A chance of scattered rain showers and winds of about 12-15 mph are expected here. That should be enough to make a difference at this venue.

Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace. The Wildcats scored 42 points on both Western Illinois and ULM, two teams who were extremely overmatched in the trenches. Northwestern has struggled badly to score on most teams they have played this year.

Purdue has been improving, and they should have won at Minnesota last week. The Boilermakers defense held up well in that game against Minnesota. Purdue isn't a big play offense either.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have one of the best defenses in the MAC. UMass has the worst offense in the country. UMass is 136th in yards per play and 130th in explosiveness on offense. They only scored 6 points and put up 3.3 yards per play on a terrible Kent State defense last week. 

UMass isn't good defensively, but they are much better on defense than offense. They are actually 14th best in the country in explosiveness allowed. They'll give up points, but it should at least take some time. Kent State only had 5.3 yards per play on them- it was turnovers and short fields that led to the points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners offense isn't the same with John Mateer at less than 100%. Now, they'll look better than they did last week because they don't have to face the Texas defense. Still, South Carolina is an above average defense.

Oklahoma is far less explosive with Mateer banged up. The Sooners were out of sorts last weekend. South Carolina's offense is a complete mess. The Gamecocks are 132nd in the nation in yards per carry. The offensive line is a glaring weakness, and this Oklahoma defensive front might be the best in the nation.

Sellers is a really good QB, but he is going to be in all kinds of bad spots in this game. Oklahoma is 1st in defensive success rate allowed against the run. They are first against the pass as well. The Sooners are second in the nation in havoc. They are second in points per opportunity allowed also. South Carolina has been awful in the red zone. The Gamecocks are 130th in points per scoring opportunity.

Defensively, both of these teams are in the top 11 in red zone TD percentage allowed.

South Carolina hasn't had a game finish higher than 49 points all year. They have had three games finish at 38 points or less. Oklahoma's highest scoring game this year was 45 points. The Sooners have had four games finish at 41 points or fewer. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Rams defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore's offense looked terrible with Cooper Rush under center last week. It is such a drop off from Jackson, and the offense has to look completely different without a running quarterback as a major threat.

The Baltimore defense has played poorly this year, but I think they'll show some pride after being embarrassed a week ago.

The weather should play a major role in this one. The weather forecast calls for steady rain from the NorEaster on Sunday afternoon. The wind should be the biggest factor though. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts as high as 37 mph are in the forecast here. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative and it helps the under a great deal.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* My numbers support a larger play on the under in this one. LSU has played four games against FBS schools and none of those games have topped 43 points (that one was Ole Miss). Recent South Carolina games have been higher scoring than they should have been due to fluke defensive/special teams plays to score or have consistently short fields.

LSU hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game against an FBS opponent all season long. The Tigers offense just hasn't been any good. The defense is leading the way with their excellent pass rush.

Sellers is a star for the Gamecocks, but the offensive line in front of him is a mess. The LSU pass rush is the strength of the team. There should be a bunch of big negative plays for South Carolina and they'll be behind the sticks a lot.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* This USC offense is extremely tough to slow down. They have two weeks to get ready for this game. The Michigan pass defense is only mediocre. They rank 45th in QBR allowed so far this year. USC should be able to hit explosives and finish in the red zone here. The Trojans have the balance that allows them to finish drives at a very high rate. 

The USC defense is talented, but they are still really inconsistent. I've overall liked what I've seen from Underwood. I think they have success here against a USC secondary that is an ugly 102nd in QBR allowed this year. Michigan State was able to move the ball quite a bit against USC, and I think the Wolverines can here too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos have played two MAC games. The score against Toledo was 14-13. The score against UMass was 21-3. I think Western Michigan based on their style of play and improved defense will have a lot of low scoring games in the MAC this year. Western Michigan is 57th in YPC allowed and they are 11th in PPA/Pass so far this season.

Ball State is coming off a shocking win over Ohio. The Cardinals are playing at a very slow pace on offense. The Cardinals did a good job slowing down the Bobcats offense last week, and they have made some improvements on defense.

Not very many possessions in this one- take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons best offensive player is Demond Claiborne. He's banged up and is likely to play but at less than 100 percent here. If he is banged up it really hurts this teams explosiveness. Ashford is probable to play here too but has been banged up quite a bit this year.

Oregon State has been unable to run the football on anyone this year. They are 128th in YPC and 133rd in rushing explosiveness. The Wake Forest defense is 5th in the nation in yards per attempt allowed in the passing game. Wake Forest is also 10th in stuff rate defensively. Wake Forest has been sneaky good on defense.

Oregon State's defense has played much better at home than on the road. They have a very good home field advantage. Oregon State is much better against the run than the pass.

I like that this could be a more conservative game with the better run defenses. The weather here calls for rain showers and winds of about 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played four games against FBS competition this year. The combined total scores in those games have been: 79 points, 86 points, 79 points, and 65 points. 

Air Force is dead last by a mile in yards per play allowed this season at 7.71 yards per play allowed. The Falcons allowed 44 points against a Hawaii team that has badly struggled to find a rhythm on offense the rest of the season. 

Air Force is wasting some very good output on offense from quarterback Liam Szarka. They have been explosive in both the passing and running game. UNLV has been very weak against the run, and I think Air Force will hit them with a lot of big gainers on the ground here. UNLV is allowing 5.15 yards per carry on the season.

The Air Force defense is 136th out of 136 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed, and UNLV has big play potential with Thomas on the ground and Colandrea and company through the air. 

UNLV's defense has shown the ability to give up a lot. They allowed 38 points to Miami (OH) and 31 points against FCS Idaho State.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn State is coming off an absolutely stunning outright loss at UCLA. No one saw that one coming. Now, the Nittany Lions come into this one on a two game losing streak.

How will Penn State respond? I expect to see the defense look a whole lot better this week. Northwestern is terrible offensively. The Wildcats have looked good against an FCS foe and a far overmatched Sun Belt opponent, but against the bigger teams they have played Northwestern has done nothing on offense. The Wildcats are also bottom ten in the country in tempo.

Northwestern is a feisty defense, and the Penn State offense isn't explosive at all right now. Penn State is 122nd in the nation in offensive explosiveness. The Nittany Lions are 91st in the nation in PPA/pass. Drew Allar has played very poorly all season long.

The under is 27-15 in James Franklin's 42 games at Penn State as a home favorite. The under is 20-8 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have disappointed all year, especially on the offensive end. Ethan Vasko will probably be back here, but he hasn't played well. Liberty is up against a UTEP defense that is 24th in havoc created. Liberty is 105th in pass blocking grade. UTEP should get in the backfield quite a bit here.

UTEP is 134th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Miners have gone between Nelson and Locklear, but both have been bad at QB. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph. That should make the game more conservative and it is overall very helpful for an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are first in the NFL in yards per play. I don't think that will change after they face a weak Las Vegas defense this weekend. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed. The Raiders are also below average in yards per play allowed at 21st in the NFL.

The Las Vegas offense has been inconsistent this year, but in the dome on the fast track I like their chances of moving the ball well here. Jeanty got going last week, and that should help the offense a lot. Indianapolis is just 20th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season.

Early season games in a dome have trended strongly toward the over in the last ten years in the NFL.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been fortunate to win all 4 of their games. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL in yards per play at 4.2 yards per play. Philadelphia has been a mess on offense, and now they are going up against a top five defense in the NFL. The Broncos should be able to generate pressure and create some negative plays. The Eagles have had less big plays this year, and the offensive line is banged up right now.

The Denver offense looking good against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals doesn't change my opinion of them. Denver isn't bad offensively, but against the top defenses in the NFL I think Nix will often struggle. The Eagles defense is still a top six or eight unit in the NFL. 

This line has moved up enough here that I'm comfortable going to the low side. The Eagles are second slowest in the NFL in tempo. I think the defenses have the edge here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have struggled badly on offense this year. They only scored 19 on a bad Oklahoma State defense. They only put up 14 and 4.6 yards per play against a Tulane defense that is only ok. Tulsa only scored 14 points and had 4.9 yards per play against a lowly New Mexico State defense.

Tulsa is better at running the football than throwing the football, but the strength of the Memphis defense is stuffing the run. Baylor Hayes has struggled badly throwing the ball when blitzed, and Memphis brings a bunch of blitzes. 

The Memphis offense is bottom 30 in the country in tempo. They are also top 20 in the country in rush rate, so they like to run the football. Tulsa is 30th in explosiveness allowed. This isn't a great Tulsa defense, but they are much improved from a year ago.

Tulsa is 128th in stuff rate allowed when running this year, and Memphis is 11th in stuff rate on defense. The Golden Hurricane should play from behind the sticks here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Heavy winds in Lincoln should change this game. The average of three forecasts here calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 28 mph during this game. 

Michigan State's front seven is pretty strong. Nebraska is a pass heavy team that really struggles running the ball. If it is this windy here in this game, I think it slows the Nebraska offense quite a bit. Nebraska is 133rd in rushing explosiveness. 

Michigan State is 128th in stuff rate allowed on offense. The Spartans offensive line has struggled all season. They are just 93rd in rushing explosiveness too.

Teams who are lacking explosives with very slow pace (126th and 77th tempo wise) with this kind of wind. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Last year's meeting between these two teams saw major fireworks as the teams went back and forth, and I think this will be another high scoring contest.

Vanderbilt just won 55-35 against Utah State. They beat Georgia State 70-21. Diego Pavia and this offense are humming along amazingly. They are first nationally in PPA/Pass attempt. The Alabama defense is just 63rd in PPA/Pass attempt allowed. Vandy is 1st in pass downs PPA and Alabama is 98th in passing downs PPA allowed.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is starting to look really comfortable at quarterback. He has some great skill position talent around him too. The Vanderbilt defense struggled against Utah State and they really have yet to be tested by a good offense. They'll be tested here in a big way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense is becoming a juggernaut. Notre Dame is getting great play from CJ Carr at quarterback. The wide receivers have stepped up their game quite a bit. The running game might be the best in the country with Love and Price. Notre Dame is 13th in the nation in yards per play. They are 2nd in pass success rate. They are 23rd in rush success rate. They are 17th in explosiveness on offense. What is Boise State defensively in explosiveness allowed? The Broncos are 136th (dead last) nationally. 

Notre Dame's defense is way down this year. The Fighting Irish are 99th in yards per play allowed. They are 112th in havoc created. Boise State is 18th nationally in yards per play. They have a very strong offensive line and a good QB in Madsen.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips are a really bad team. Akron has almost nothing going for them. The one relative strength they have as a team is their ability to slow down the run. They are 34th in PPA/rush allowed and 42nd in rushing explosiveness allowed. Central Michigan is all about the run. They are running the ball on more than 66% of their offensive snaps. Matt Drinkall is going to run the football early and often here with the Chippewas. 

Central Michigan is 111th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They haven't been a big play offense. They usually very methodically move the ball down the field. Central Michigan has been one of the worst red zone offenses in the country too.

The Chippewas defense has been beaten by good passing teams, but Akron is 134th in passing downs success rate. Akron is 131st in yards per attempt in the passing game too.

This projects as a sloppy low scoring contest. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have seen their last three games finish at 34 points, 30 points, and 33 points. Now, Florida must take on a Texas team that clearly has a top two or three defense in the country. 

Texas is first nationally in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to beat them with big plays. They are also elite in red zone defense. Texas is 5th in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed. They are 4th in the country in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Longhorns defensive front will be too good for the Florida offensive line.

The Florida defense has been very good this season. Florida is 29th in success rate allowed. They are 22nd in explosiveness allowed. 

The Texas offense has sputtered under Arch Manning. Manning has been good for a great throw once in a while, but the passing game overall has been very weak even against poor competition. Texas is 119th in PPA/pass attempt despite playing teams like UTEP, San Jose State, and Sam Houston.

Florida's offense has struggled badly under Lagway all season. They have been bottled up by far worse defenses than this Texas unit.

Both teams are bottom 10 in the country in explosiveness on offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams are 136th and 134th in yards per play offensively. There are only 136 teams in FBS. Both teams have been a real mess on offense all season. 

Western Michigan is a solid 56th in yards per play allowed on defense. Western Michigan is 22nd in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays. UMass should really struggle to score here.

Western Michigan is a run heavy team that plays at a slow pace whenever they aren't far behind in a game. The Broncos should run the ball consistently here. Defensively, UMass isn't good, but they are a decent 71st in explosiveness allowed. 

I expect a sloppy game where both teams look bad on the offensive end. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers are 56th quickest in tempo in the country. Army isn't as slow as they have normally been, they come in at 94th out of 136 teams. 

UAB's Jalen Kitna is a pretty good quarterback who I consider an over type quarterback. He'll take chances and it could lead to big plays for the offense or even a pick 6 for the defense. UAB is 15th in the nation in pass explosiveness. Army is 125th in pass explosiveness allowed. Army has struggled to slow down the deep passing game. UAB is 28th in the nation in PPA/pass, and Army is just 104th in PPA/Pass allowed. UAB has a path to scoring quite a few points here. UAB put up 24 points and 6.9 YPP against a Navy defense that is better than this Army unit. 

Army should have success offensively here. UAB is 135th in rush success rate allowed. They are 134th in defensive line yards. Army has some ability to throw it this year and UAB is dead last in the nation in PPA/pass allowed. 

Both defenses have been really weak in the red zone, and I think both teams can score touchdowns when they have opportunities in the red zone.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers are a matchup specific defense. Pitt is great against the run with their stout defensive line. The Panthers can struggle though against teams who are pass heavy. The Panthers secondary is prone to giving up big plays. 

Boston College is 4th in the country in pass rate, so they are throwing it around a lot. Lonergan has been a pretty good quarterback for them, and I think he can have success here against this Pitt defense. Boston College is 33rd in QBR offensively, while Pitt is 85th in QBR allowed. Pitt has also struggled to keep teams out of the end zone once they enter the red zone.

Pitt's offense is fast paced (14th in the nation) and they like to throw it around too. They are 17th in pass rate nationally. Eli Holstein has been inconsistent this year,  but the Boston College defense is subpar. Boston College is 67th in PPA/pass, and they haven't seen many good passing attacks this year either.

Both teams throwing it around and both teams top 40 in the country in tempo.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Colorado State with MASSIVE problems. Against a Washington State defense that isn’t very good, they just scored a grand total of 3 points. Col State put up 16 against a bad UTSA team. They scored 21 points against Northern Colorado who is a weak FCS team. The Rams lack playmakers on offense.

SD State now 112th in pace of play. Sean Lewis knows the strength of his team is the defense. Offensively, Jayden Denegal has been disappointing for the Aztecs. They don't have much of a downfield passing attack.

San Diego State shutout a decent Cal offense with JKS two weeks ago. They allowed 3 against N Illinois last week. Fields is an excellent edger rusher and Chambliss is a top notch linebacker.

I waited this one out for the slight move upward that I expect on low totals. It came, and now I'm backing the under.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears are dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Now, the Bears are without a star cornerback in Jaylon Johnson, and that hurts them a ton. The Bears lack a pass rush as well. I think Geno Smith can do some work against this Bears secondary in the dome on the fast track.

Chicago is top ten in the NFL in yards per play. They have a new offensive minded coach. They brought in some excellent new weapons for Caleb Williams. Both Loveland and Burden are really good adds. Odunze is becoming a star at the wide receiver spot as well. The Raiders were just torched for 41 points by the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.

I think we'll see a lot of big plays both ways in a tight game where the offenses have the advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Giants will start Jaxson Dart in this game. Dart is up against a really good defense in the Chargers here. This is very tough ask of him right away. I expect the Giants to run the football more and play it more cautious than normal. The offensive line in front of Dart is clearly a bad one.

The Giants have been an under machine at home, especially as a home underdog. As a home underdog of 6.5 points or less the under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 contests. Here is another game that fits this system.

The Chargers are content to play at a slow pace and if they have control of the game they run the football quite a bit. The Giants front seven on defense is very strong and I think they can get some pressure on Herbert here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last four times these two teams have played the combined total has finished at 38 points or less. 

Kentucky's offensive numbers are propped up by rolling up a big number on the lowly Eastern Michigan Eagles defense. Eastern Michigan is a bottom three defense in the country. Kentucky had just 4.6 YPP on offense against Toledo. The Wildcats passing game is very weak. They are reliant on running the football. South Carolina is 34th in rushing PPA allowed. They are 23rd in preventing explosive rushing plays. Kentucky will have to slowly work the ball down the field on the ground. 

South Carolina's offense has struggled overall this season. Sellers is a superstar, but the offensive line is very weak. The Gamecocks are 130th in offensive success rate. They are 130th in red zone TD percentage too, so they are struggling to finish drives. 

It is supposed to rain earlier in the day, and there are possible showers at times during the game. This is a grass field and the footing could be worse than normal here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Campbell has been an under coach. The under is 87-62 in his games as a head coach. When the total is 48 or higher- the under is 61% in Campbell’s teams games!

Arizona is just 122nd in offensive success rate. They are 6th in defensive success rate. Iowa State 55th in offensive success rate. 36th in defensive success rate.

Arizona hasn’t played good defenses, and yet the Wildcats have still really struggled to get anything going on offense. They haven’t found an identity yet. I don't think they'll get much going in this game.

On the other side, I love Gonzales the DC for Arizona, and I think he can scheme up something solid here to slow down Rocco Beccht and company.

Matt Campbell in a game with a total above 48 and an opponent with an improving defense

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank 22nd in the country in plays per minute so they are moving very quickly pace wise. Jacksonville State is 44th, which is above average as well.

Southern Miss is 51st in pass play success rate on offense, and Jacksonville State is 101st in pass play success rate allowed. The Gamecocks secondary is their biggest weakness. I expect Braylon Braxton and company to be able to exploit that weakness. Southern Miss is 38th in pass play explosiveness, and Jacksonville State is 101st in passing play explosiveness allowed. 

Jacksonville State's offense is all about the running game with Cam Cook. Cook is putting up some really impressive numbers this season. Wimsatt at QB is a good runner as well. I think Cook will have a big game here. Southern Miss is 108th in PPA/rush and 109th in rushing play explosiveness allowed. Jacksonville State is 14th in the nation in PPA/rush offensively and they are 23rd in rushing play explosiveness. Southern Miss is good in the secondary, but I think they'll be ran on here.

Two fast paced teams with the offenses strengths being the opposing defenses weakness here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats once again have a strong defense, but an offense that is very questionable. 

Northwestern under David Braun has been very good at turning games into rock fights and winning or being competitive thanks to their ability to not give up big plays and play well on special teams. 

Oregon only had 373 yards of offense against Northwestern, and that Oregon offense is elite. Northwestern only allowed 23 points against Tulane despite turning the ball over five times.

UCLA is seriously lacking in explosiveness, and the UCLA offensive line is a big weakness. I don't think the coaching change is going to make the offense better quickly.

This field is right by the lake, and any wind can cause major issues. The current forecast looks like there could be a bit of wind to contend with in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Rice Owls don't have exactly the same type of offenses, but they definitely share quite a few similarities. 

Navy is a much more explosive offense with the ability to throw the ball down the field at times. Rice has to run it to be successful. The Owls severely lack playmakers on the offensive end. 

Rice beat Navy 24-10 last year. I think Navy will be ready to play in this one. The Navy defense is 22nd in rushing success rate allowed. Rice runs it the third most of any team in the country, just behind Navy who is second most run heavy in the country. Rice has no passing game. In four games, they only have 11 passing plays of 10 yards or more. Rice is second to last in the nation in offensive explosiveness. 

Navy will run it early and often, and Rice is 16th in rushing play success rate allowed. I do expect Navy to move the ball here, but I think it will be long slow drives.

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo. Two top three teams in terms of rush rate and bottom ten in terms of tempo means a lot of running the clock. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have an elite running game. The Dukes have three good runners, and I sincerely doubt that Georgia Southern can stop them or even slow them down here. Georgia Southern ranks dead last in run defense grade at PFF at #136 in the nation. 

Georgia Southern prefers to throw the football, and I think with their tempo and receiving option they can do at least some damage against the James Madison defense. 

The Georgia Southern defense is significantly worse than they were a year ago, and James Madison is far better offensively now than they were when they played GA Southern last season.

I think James Madison puts up a pretty big number and this one goes over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils aren't the same team they were a year ago. Duke's secondary is shorthanded right now, and their best cornerback from last year is in the NFL. Teams have been able to throw it all over the Blue Devils.

Duke gave up 535 yards in their win against NC State. Duke allowed 6.8 yards per play against Tulane as well.

Syracuse has rolled up at least 433 yards of offense in three straight games. Angeli has played well, but will miss the game with an injury. Rickie Collins had initially won the job and the LSU transfer should be good enough to put up points here on this weak Duke defense.

The Syracuse defense gave up more than 500 yards against Clemson, and Tennessee put up 7.3 yards per play against them.

These two teams both rank in the top ten in the country in tempo. A bunch of possessions and on the fast track at Syracuse. I think this one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame defense has regressed significantly under Chris Ash, who appears to be a large downgrade from Golden at defensive coordinator. Notre Dame is bottom five in the country in havoc created, and they just gave up 30 points to a bad Purdue offense. They also allowed 7.1 yards per play against Texas A&M. 

Fortunately for Notre Dame, their offense is hitting its stride. The Fighting Irish rolled up 56 points against Purdue. They put up 40 on Texas A&M. This is an explosive running game, and Arkansas just gave up 290 yards rushing to Memphis. 

Taylen Green should have a big day here. He is an explosive guy who can do it with his legs or through the air. Notre Dame appears very vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. 

A lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans are first in the nation in yards per play at 9.64 yards per play. Cincinnati is second, but they are back at 8.38 yards per play. The Trojans have been terrific all season. They started a bit slowly on the road at Purdue, but the offense got it going later in the game.

Jayden Maiava is a good decision maker who has taken that next step forward with Lincoln Riley helping him along. Riley's system is obviously great for the quarterback. USC has great team speed at the skill positions on offense too. This is an explosive offense that should really test a Michigan State secondary which I view as a relative weakness. Michigan State's DLine is strong, but I think USC can beat them through the air.

Michigan State's offense has looked much improved the last couple games. Aiden Chiles does have a high upside, and USC gave up 5.3 YPP to Purdue and 20 points to GA Southern.

With this below key numbers of 55 and 56 I'm taking the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners offense is working very well. UTSA has scored 24 points (against Tex A&M), 36 points against Texas State, and 49 points against Incarnate Word. The UTSA defense is clearly well down from a year ago though. UTSA has allowed 42 points, 43 points, and 20 points in those three games. UTSA went from being a very good defense, to being 113th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Colorado State has a pretty good quarterback in Fowler-Nicolosi. The Rams are in the top 25 in passing play percentage in the country. The UTSA secondary is a clear weakness. 

UTSA is throwing the ball on 54.1% of their offensive plays too. The Colorado State secondary is inexperienced and I think they can be beaten.

Colorado State has sped up their tempo this season (10th so far in pace). UTSA gets involved in a lot of shootouts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils defense is clearly not the same without Josh Pickett (star cornerback now in the NFL) and Terry Moore (injured safety). Duke's star defensive end Sabastian Harsh will miss the first half of this game too due to a targeting suspension. Duke is 122nd in the nation in passing PPA allowed. They are also 126th in explosiveness allowed. Duke's secondary is letting them down badly. Now, they have to be without their superstar pass rusher for a half as well. 

C.J. Bailey and the NC State offense have been good this year. Smothers gives them an excellent RB. The wide receivers are solid as well. Bailey has a stellar 86.5 PFF grade, which is one of the best in the country. He only has one turnover worthy play all season thus far. NC State should have offensive success.

The NC State defense has regressed pretty badly. They are missing their star defensive coordinator (Gibson) from last year. NC State is 97th nationally in overall PPA allowed. Duke is 7th in the nation in tempo. With Mensah they are playing very quickly and moving the ball well. 

Duke is 38th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. NC State is a terrible 132nd in the country in explosiveness allowed.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've been very impressed with the Oklahoma defense so far this year. Michigan tore through Central Michigan like they were nothing last week, but they had a very hard time finding any room against Oklahoma. I know Temple isn't a really good offense by any means, but Oklahoma holding them to 1.9 yards per play and 3 points last week was great work.

Auburn is running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive snaps so far this season. Oklahoma's defense is elite at stuffing the run. The Tigers offensive line can usually dominate, but I think they will struggle to run it against Oklahoma.

The Auburn defense has been solid this year. Oklahoma's offense has been inconsistent, and I don't think they'll put up a big number here.

Jackson Arnold is back to play his old team, and emotions will be high here. I expect to see a spirited battle between two good defenses and two teams who want to run the football. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans lost star quarterback Goose Crowder to an injury last week. Troy then could not move the football at all with Tucker Kilcrease under center. Kilcrease has a long term PFF of about 50 (very bad) from playing last year and this year. Troy loses all explosiveness on offense without Crowder in the game. Troy scored zero points on offense last week against a Memphis defense that is just middle of the road.

Buffalo played poorly last week, and the Bulls defensive effort was disappointing. I still believe this Buffalo front seven is one of the best in the MAC and a very good G5 level unit. Troy will try to run the football here, and I don't think they'll have much success.

The Troy defense is a very good unit. Clemson only gained 316 yards against them. Troy's strength is in the front seven on defense as well. Buffalo has a good running game, but Roberson hasn't looked very trustworthy throwing the football.

A lot of running the football, and not very many explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The TCU Horned Frogs passing attack is elite with Josh Hoover at the helm. This is a really tough matchup for the SMU pass defense. SMU allowed 601 yards to Baylor earlier this year. TCU should roll up a big number here too. In their other two games, SMU has faced overmatched opponents in E Texas A&M and Missouri State.

SMU's offensive line is a strength, and it should give Jennings time to throw here. TCU is 120th in passing PPA allowed. The Horned Frogs allowed 453 yards and 6.0 yards per play to Abilene Christian last weekend. 

TCU has put up 7.5 and 8.2 yards per play on offense in their two games this season. They are 39th in passing play frequency despite having huge leads in both games. They want to throw it around. The SMU secondary is their weakness.

In the last five meetings between these two teams, four of the games have been 76 points or higher. Last year, the final was 66-42.

A ton of pace in this one. Back and forth. 

Take the over.