*4 Star Play Under* The forecast in Laramie calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts to 40 mph during this game. That kind of wind is enough to make a huge difference in a game. 

Wyoming and UNLV are already fairly predictable offensively. These are two bottom five passing offenses in the nation. The passing game will be even less of an option with this weather. Expect both teams to load up the box and dare their opposition to try to throw it over them.

UNLV plays at a moderate pace, and Wyoming plays very slowly. UNLV does have a lot of potential in the running game normally, but Wyoming is 13th in the nation in ypc allowed. Wyoming's running attack will move the ball here, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Field goals will definitely be difficult in this weather as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The pace between these two should be especially quick. Arkansas State has a backup quarterback here or this would have been a bigger play for me. I still think the Red Wolves can have enough offensive success here though.

Troy has been excellent on offense thus far this year, and I think they can take advantage of a weak Arkansas State secondary. Troy has big play ability and they have a veteran signal caller.

Both defenses have given up a bunch of explosive this year. Look for a quick pace with plenty of big plays to get us to a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are typically a pretty conservative team under Chris Petersen. Petersen is a great coach, and he should have his team ready for this game. Clay Helton isn't a good coach. USC has a lot of talent, but it's hard to say how prepared they will be here.

USC starts quarterback Matt Fink here. Fink had good numbers last week against Utah, but he threw a lot of jump balls that ended up working out. Washington's secondary is definitely better than the Utah secondary though, and I'm not confident Fink will look as good here.

Washington should have the lead here, and they play at a slow tempo. They will run it more often late in the game if they are in the lead.

Also important to note is the weather. The forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers during this game in the pacific northwest. There will be 11 mph winds and gusts to 22 mph. That is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have been ruining all kinds of chances to score with turnovers and stalled out drives deep in opponents territory. The Chargers have played two pretty good defenses so far this year, and LA still ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play. Rivers is still a good quarterback and he is surrounded by quite a few weapons. 

The Houston Texans offense has a lot of potential. As long as they open it up enough here and throw the ball early and often, I see this as a matchup where they can score plenty of points. Deshaun Watson is a really good quarterback, and he has tremendous wide receivers. The Chargers secondary is badly banged up, and Houston has a big edge at wide receiver.

The Texans biggest weakness now is also in the secondary. Their defensive line isn't quite as strong as it was a year ago either. Look for Rivers to do some damage on this Texans secondary.

I see both passing games having a clear edge here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers I view as an under team at least early in the season. This Green Bay defense is much better than they were a year ago. I like their athleticism and speed at all positions. 

Denver's offense is very weak. Joe Flacco simply isn't the answer, and Denver is going to struggle all year on offense. They simply aren't explosive enough. I see the Broncos as a team who tries to play fairly conservative offensively, and they don't have enough weapons either.

Green Bay's offensive tempo has been very slow so far this year. The Packers new offense hasn't worked well thus far. Green Bay is 2-0 because of their defense. The Packers offense is 30th in the NFL in yards per play so far this year, behind the Chicago Bears and just ahead of the New York Jets. 

The weather could be helpful here. The long-term forecast calls for 15 mph winds during this game and a chance of rain. Wind certainly helps the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals offense looks different this year with Drew Plitt at quarterback. Ball State is airing it out far more often than they did in recent seasons. Plitt has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions so far this year. He is completing a whopping 70.6% of his passes. 

Ball State ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. They will try to play as quickly as possible here. They are also likely to be behind, which should make them play even quicker and be even more pass heavy. The Cardinals offense has been much better than most expected this season.

NC State has gotten decent production from their offense this year, and Ball State's defense is very weak. Ball State has very little pass rush, and I think they'll give up quite a few big plays here.

While NC State's defense is good, they are much better against the run than the pass. This secondary isn't great and I think Ball State can score enough to get over this reasonable total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Over* Texas State ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Georgia State ranks 24th in the nation in tempo. Two top 25 teams in pace of play should mean a lot of possessions here. 

Georgia State ranks 129th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. Texas State ranks 119th in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have been terrible. 

Texas State is allowing nearly 6 yards per play, and Georgia State is going to run it early and often here. They should be able to expose the weakness of the Texas State run defense here.

Texas State's new OC Bob Stitt wants them to air it out early and often. How much are they throwing it? Texas State has thrown the football on a whopping 68% of their offensive plays so far this year. If it weren't for some terrible turnovers in plus territory, Texas State's offense would have scored a lot more points so far this year.

Plenty of tempo from both teams and two very weak offenses. 

Take the over. 5 Star TOP Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB has typically been a good rushing offense, but the Blazers are averaging only 3.24 ypc yards per carry so far this year. That's bad to start with, but when you consider they have played Alabama State and Akron that is especially bad.

UAB does still have a very solid defense. Though they have played two bad teams, they have allowed only 20 plays of 10 yards or more and 7 plays of 20 yards or more. 

South Alabama has improved defensively from a year ago. This is a team that is being coached to try to avoid giving up the big play this year. UAB moves slowly so even when they score it is likely to take quite a bit of time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a really strong offense. Western Michigan has very nice balance. They rank 9th in the nation in yards per play. The Broncos have 22 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. The Syracuse defense has been a disappointment. The Orange have allowed a whopping 48 plays of 10 yards or more already this season.

Syracuse's offense hasn't looked good so far this year. They have played a pretty tough schedule though, and Western Michigan's defense is very weak. Remember, Western Michigan's defense made Michigan State's very weak offense look great just a couple weeks ago.

Syracuse will push the pace, and their offense should look a lot better here. Western Michigan's offense should be able to move the ball a lot as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been better on offense on the road than at home. That isn't common at all, but under Andy Reid they are averaging almost 3 points per game more on the road than at home. In fact, the over is 16-5 in the Chiefs last 21 road games. The defense has been even worse on the road, and the offense has stepped up away from home.

Oakland's defense looked pretty good against Denver this past Monday night, but I don't have to tell you there is a huge difference in looking good against the Denver Broncos offense led by Joe Flacco and this KC offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Even without Hill, there are more than enough weapons here to take advantage of a weak Oakland secondary that is now without a starting safety as well.

Oakland's offense didn't have to do much in the second half against Denver, but they'll need to keep pushing to score here. Derek Carr has better players around him this year, and he knows the system better now as well. The Chiefs defense is a clear weakness, and I expect Oakland to connect on some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers defense looked excellent in week one. I know the Bears aren't a great offense by any means, but I liked what I saw from the Packers in terms of speed and athleticism on defense.

Minnesota has a top five defense in the NFL. The Vikings won't make it easy on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in their new offense. Green Bay looked very shaky offensively in week one.

This is a divisional rivalry, and these games have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. 

The long range weather shows 15 mph winds for this game which is just an added bonus.

The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* Texas State’s new offensive scheme is a good one. They couldn’t get anything going against Texas A&M, but they moved the ball easily against Wyoming. Texas State’s turnovers and missed FG’s make it look like their offense wasn’t that good. The score doesn’t reflect how well their offense played. They also played much faster than they did in week one. Bob Stitt’s system is being implemented.

SMU looks much better offensively with a good quarterback to run Sonny Dykes’ system. They have put up 37 and 49 points in their first two contests. Take the over.

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

Both of these teams always circle this game. It’s an important rivalry game for these two schools. These rivalry games make me lean to the under to start with, and in the recent games against each other the under has had value.

Ohio has decided to slow the tempo down drastically. They rank as the 9th slowest team in the nation pace wise. Marshall is also slightly slower than an average team in tempo.

This is too high of a number. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans offense will likely throw the ball a lot this year with a veteran quarterback and a good group of wide receivers. 

Southern Miss had an elite defense last year, but they lost a ton of players from that unit. The Golden Eagles aren't bad defensively, but they aren't close to last year's level.

Southern Miss is playing quicker and they are going to take more shots downfield in their new offensive scheme. Look for them to be able to get some big gainers on a Troy secondary that is questionable.

This total is a few points too low. 

The over is 40-17 in Troy's last 57 non-conference games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen defense is atrocious. They allowed 48 points against a terrible Rutgers offense in week one. They then gave up 45 points to Southern Illinois (a subpar FCS team) in week two. I’ve been really impressed with the Charlotte offense under their new head coach. They rolled up more than 500 yards of offense against Appalachian State last week. 

UMass has allowed a ridiculous 33 plays of 10 yards or more in just two games. Charlotte has been explosive on offense already this year. They have 34 plays of 10 yards or more offensively in two games. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 of the country in total defense. UMass should score enough here, and Charlotte is likely to put up a big number. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa/Iowa State under- Brock Purdy is a good quarterback for Iowa State, but he lacks weapons around him. Iowa State’s front seven on defense is amazing. Iowa always plays slowly and has a fairly cautious game plan. The Hawkeyes once again have a very good defense. This is a rivalry game where points are at a premium normally. I don’t see that being any different this season. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* Graham Harrell’s offense looked great last weekend in USC’s win over Stanford. Slovis is a nice fit at quarterback, and he has some extremely talented receivers around him. USC is playing very quickly as well. This USC defense is way down from where it was a few years ago. USC ranks 78th in YPP allowed so far this year, and they haven’t even played great offenses. BYU’s offense should be improved with Wilson at the helm.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The last three games between Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati have finished with a total of 47, 38, and 21 points. Last year's game was played in poor weather, so that one should be discounted at least somewhat. Still, this has been a low scoring series for quite some time. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two.

This is a game that means a lot to both teams. Miami Ohio is in Oxford, which is only about 50 minutes from Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been winning in this series consistently, but there have been a bunch of close low scoring games.

Cincinnati's defense looked bad last week against Ohio State, but the Bearcats defense was excellent last year, and they certainly aren't playing an offense similar in any fashion to Ohio State here in the Miami Ohio Redhawks. 

Miami only ran for 2.4 ypc against Iowa in week one. The Redhawks totaled only 245 yards. In fact, Miami only had 349 yards against Tennessee Tech last weekend. There are a lot of questions about this Miami offense. They are young at quarterback, and he isn't surrounded by very much talent. 

Cincinnati's offense was due for some regression after their amazing success on 3rd down and long last year. The Bearcats are good on offense, but Miami's defense is the strength of their team. The Redhawks won't be able to stop Cincinnati, but I think they can slow them down.

In terms of tempo, Miami is 91st in the country and Cincinnati is 120th. There won't be any fast paced play going on here. I think both defenses do a good enough job of preventing explosive plays to make this under very valuable. 

Miami is running the ball nearly 60% of the time so far this year, and Cincinnati runs it on 63% of their plays. Running clock is always helpful.

I had this one lined quite a few points lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest pushes pace about as much as anyone in the country. North Carolina wants to play quicker this year as well. The Tar Heels have faced two good defenses in the first two weeks. The Wake Forest defense isn’t good. Wake Forest has put up big numbers in back to back games, and I think they’ll be able to score plenty again here. Lots of pace and a lot of scoring from each side. Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots were a much different team late last season than what they were the season before. They looked to run the ball far more. The Patriots also were led by their strong defense. I don't think most people realize how good this defense is now. This is a top five defense in the NFL. With Tom Brady aging, I think a more conservative game plan will likely continue.

The Steelers defense should be considerably better with Bush at linebacker. He gives the team that quick linebacker in the middle of the field that they have been missing the last couple seasons. 

I think both teams will do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. A tight game where both teams have to settle for field goals several times should keep this one under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These divisional rivals square off in week one of the NFL regular season. The New York Giants are without a couple key wide receivers, which should make their game plan even more conservative for this game. Look for a lot of running the football and short passes. That should keep the clock moving quite a bit.

Dallas will look to run it a lot and the Cowboys still aren't likely to take too many deep shots in this offense. Kellen Moore's system should take some time to get established, especially since Zeke hasn't been around until a few days ago. 

New York's Saquon Barkley is likely to bust quite a few big plays this year, but Dallas' linebackers make it harder to break big gainers on this team than the average NFL defense. Dallas is absolutely loaded at linebacker, and their speed is impressive. 

Five of the last six games between these two teams have finished at 40 points or less. Look for another hard fought contest here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans have injury/suspension trouble on the offensive line. You don't want to be facing this Cleveland Browns pass rush with question marks on the offensive line. 

Marcus Mariota hasn't shown himself to be very good when under pressure in the NFL. The Titans will likely look to run the ball quite a bit here and bleed the clock. They don't want to get into a shootout here, and they know they have pass protection issues.

Cleveland's offensive line isn't very good in pass protection either. Cameron Wake is a nice addition for the Titans, and I see this Titans defense as underrated. They don't have many stars, but they don't have any glaring weaknesses either. 

Baker Mayfield is very good, but he can have some interception issues and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple drives are slowed by a pick or two here. The Browns running game isn't great either.

With an extra emphasis on holding calls this year, I see this as a game where there could be a lot of offensive holding penalties with the Oline's struggling to keep the pass rush off their quarterback.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Kentucky will look to play faster and air it out under Helton this year. The Hilltoppers defense was taken advantage of by Central Arkansas last week. FIU has a very efficient offense and I would expect FIU to take advantage of Western Kentucky's secondary here.

FIU faced a much tougher defensive line in Tulane last week and that bothered them. They don't face anything similar here from Western Kentucky.

Look for a lot of scoring in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Florida State was clicking on all cylinders in the first half last week against Boise State. They stalled out in a big way in the second half. Expect Kendal Briles to have some fixes for this week. The Seminoles have a huge talent advantage against the LA Monroe Warhawks here.

Importantly, Florida State was playing 5 seconds per play quicker than they did a year ago. The Seminoles played at the 2nd quickest pace of any team in the country in week one. I think they can put up a big number here.

Monroe has a veteran quarterback and a pretty good offense. They won't score too many, but it should be enough to get this past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Baylor ranked 125th in red zone offense last year. They had some very untimely turnovers in the red zone last year, and I would expect much better from them with another year in this system and a veteran quarterback in Charlie Brewer. Brewer has improved weapons around him, and this offensive line is definitely better than a year ago.

UTSA has nowhere to go but up compared to last year on offense. They still won't be good on offense, but they will be improved. They have a new offensive coordinator who has helped them have a better scheme.

Baylor's offense is way too good for this UTSA defense. The UTSA secondary is a major weakness, and I would expect Baylor to have a lot of guys running wide open in this one. The Bears have picked up their tempo a bit as well.

The extreme heat (100 degrees) is helpful for an over as well. There are multiple strong angles regarding taking the over in a hot game. 

Look for Baylor to put up a big number here and UTSA to do enough to get this past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is way down from a year ago. Nebraska will push the tempo in a big way here, and I think this number is lower than it should be based on Nebraska's struggles last week. Nebraska's offense should get right this week and put up a big number here.

The Colorado offense is really dangerous with Montez and Shenault as the stars of the unit. Look for them to be able to find holes in this Nebraska secondary. 

I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mississippi State's defense was amazing last year. While I don't think they will be bad this year, they lost nearly everything from last season on the defensive end. The Bulldogs defense is going to give up a lot more than they did a year ago.

On the other side of the ball, Tommy Stevens is likely a good fit for the Bulldogs offense due to the fact that he has worked with Joe Moorhead in the past and knows this offense well.

Southern Miss has a new offensive coordinator this year. He was an assistant at Arkansas State, and I would expect Southern Miss to turn up the tempo this year and pick up more big gainers. Southern Miss has a strong offensive line and the Golden Eagles offense should be far more efficient this year than it was a year ago.

Both of these teams played in a lot of low scoring contests last year, which has kept this number down enough to give us value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers aired it out early and often last week against Nevada. Purdue averaged 6.41 yards per play, so they moved the ball well. Turnovers were a big problem for the Boilers. Vanderbilt has had a strong secondary in the past, but they lost a lot from that unit, and I would expect Purdue's excellent group of wide receivers to be able to do damage against this secondary. Elijah Sindelar is a quarterback capable of throwing a pick six on a questionable decision or completing a long touchdown. The Boilermakers tempo was more than two seconds per play faster than last season in their week one game, and that is despite the fact they led for much of that game.

Vanderbilt said in the preseason they would play somewhat faster under their new offensive coordinator, and that was true in week one. They faced an elite defense in Georgia last week, but this Purdue defense is far worse. Purdue gives up too many big plays. Riley Neal and the Vanderbilt offense should move the ball pretty well here too.

I had this number at 60, so we are getting several points of value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best secondary in the MAC. Eastern Michigan will give teams who want to air it out often a hard time this year. Eastern Michigan is weak in the front seven though. Kyle Rachwal was the heart and soul of the linebackers and he is gone after racking up 127 tackles last year. The defensive tackles aren't very good against the run. That's important in this game.

Coastal Carolina is all about the run. The Chanticleers ran it on 66% of their offensive plays last year, and they might run it even more this year. They have some impressive talent at running back, and they have several guys who will see the field at that position. Look for them to have success breaking some big plays here.

Eastern Michigan's offense should be improved this year. The Eagles should be more balanced with a good athlete at quarterback in Mike Glass. The Coastal Carolina defense was horrible last year. They allowed 7.30 yards per play last year. They allowed a whopping 82 plays of 20 yards or more. Eastern Michigan should be able to move it consistently here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kendal Briles is the new offensive coordinator at Florida State. At Houston, Briles' offense was easily the fastest pace team in the nation. Briles has been stressing pushing the tempo ever since he got to Florida State. 

The Seminoles offense has too many talented players at the skill positions to not improve a lot in this new system. The OLine is still the weakness, but Briles should be able to draw up better plays and get the ball out quicker. 

Boise State isn't as strong in the secondary as many years, and I think the Seminoles will break some big plays. 

Boise State's offense typically moves at a normal tempo, and I don't think they will slow the game down too much here. The Broncos still have playmakers on the offensive end, and this Florida State defense will have to adjust to being on the field more with the offense playing at such a quick tempo.

This game was moved to Tallahassee and will start at noon. The hurricane winds shouldn't reach here until at least Sunday, and the current forecast calls for winds of only 6 mph during this game. 

With the tempo this game will be played at, I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes play at an extremely fast pace under Sean Lewis. He was an assistant under Dino Babers, and he'll keep speeding this team up. Woody Barrett returns for another year at quarterback, and I think he is a really good fit for this offense. Barrett can run or throw, and the receivers are very solid for the Golden Flashes.

Kent State's defense gives up loads of big plays. The Golden Flashes allowed a whopping 42 plays of 30 yards or more last year. They won't be good this year either, and Arizona State still has some big play guys on offense.

Arizona State lost Manny Wilkins, but I really like Jayden Daniels. Daniels might struggle against top defenses as a freshman, but this is a great opportunity for him. Eno Benjamin is a great running back, and he should have a huge game against this Kent State defense. 

I would expect the pace here to be pretty quick, and the explosive plays from Arizona State should come often. Kent State's offense will be much improved this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats will look totally different this year. Jake Spavital is an offensive minded coach who wants to play uptempo. He brought in Bob Stitt, who is known as a mastermind of the fly sweep and many other unique offensive formations. Stitt is a guy who coaches turned to as they looked for innovation in the spread formation. 

Look for Texas State to go 4 or 5 wide often and use a lot of motion and quick passes. They won't substitute often because they really want to push the pace. While the Bobcats aren't great on offense right now, I think they can do enough here against Texas A&M.

The Aggies have a huge advantage offensively vs. an undersized Texas State defensive front. Look for plenty of big gainers from the Aggies offense led by Kellen Mond. 

With the tempo being at an extreme and the weather looking favorable here, I think this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*2 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will play to see who wins the Super Bowl on Sunday night. New England has been here all kinds of times, and this is the first trip for this Rams team. 

The Rams have run the ball on more than 50% of their offensive plays in their last three games. Jared Goff has been shaky late in the season, and I expect the Rams to run the ball quite a bit in this game especially early on in the game. 

The Patriots have transformed themselves into a team that runs the ball well behind a strong offensive line. There's no doubt New England has less elite weapons in the passing game now than they have had in the past, so it makes sense for them to make this change. They have multiple good running back options. I think they'll run the ball a lot in this one as well. 

I think both teams will likely run the ball more and try to keep their defense off the field, which should result in some long drives that eat up a lot of clock. 

The Rams defense has allowed less than 19 points per game in contests Aqib Talib has played. He has been a difference maker for this defense. The defensive line has played much better in their last few games as well. This Rams defense is very well coached by Wade Phillips. 

New England's defense confused the Chiefs for much of the game in the AFC title game. I think they'll have some good schemes ready here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in week 6 of the regular season. The Patriots won that game 43-40. The scoring was rapid fire back and forth late in that game. Both teams were getting a bunch of big gainers. 

Kansas City has the best offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes has proven people wrong all year, and he has a good coaching staff putting him in great positions. It doesn't hurt to have guys like Hill, Kelce, and Watkins to throw the ball to either. The Chiefs offensive line is one of the two or three best in the NFL as well. Kansas City has been able to score on everyone this year. I don't think that changes here. The Patriots defense can't match the team speed of the Chiefs.

New England's offense has found a really solid running game late this year. Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Chiefs have gotten gashed on several occasions. While the Patriots offense isn't elite, they do still have one of the best of all time at quarterback. They also have a great offensive coaching staff. This is a weak Kansas City defense they are up against. 

Both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace of play, so there should be plenty of snaps here. 

The over is 8-1-1 in the Patriots last 10 playoff games. New England has scored 28 points or more in all but one of those games. 

The weather doesn't look nearly as bad as it did earlier this year. Current forecasts call for temperatures in the mid 20's here, which is cold, but not brutal by any means. The winds are expected to be at only 5 or 6 mph. 

Cold weather games have gone over in the NFL in the past. Games with a temperature of less than 30 degrees have gone 95-61 (60.9%) to the over. In the playoffs, the over is 20-11 in this weather. When the game is a non-divisional contest, the over is a whopping 67-30 (69.1%).

Look for both teams to score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints passing attack is capable of huge things. They weren't at their best down the stretch, but their numbers are much better in the Superdome than on the road and they are up against a very weakened Eagles secondary here. 

Drew Brees is still a very reliable quarterback, and he still has a great offensive line in front of him. The Saints have multiple good weapons on the outside, and they also have a great running back in Kamara. 

The Eagles secondary has been a problem late in the year with the significant amount of injuries. Philadelphia's secondary was exposed by Houston late in the year. The Bears weren't able to expose them, but the Saints are on the fast track and have many more weapons.

The Eagles offense has been playing better with Foles at quarterback, and the Saints defense gives up a lot of big plays. Philadelphia is a better offense with Sproles healthy. He isn't young, but he still has big play potential.

Both passing attacks have a significant advantage here, and this isn't that high of a total considering the situations. 

The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 home playoff contests.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats had a terrific season. Kentucky is led by their great defense. Kentucky's defense ranks 16th in the nation adjusted for strength of schedule. The Wildcats have a future NFL linebacker in Josh Allen. He is likely the best player on the field here, and I expect him to give Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley a hard time. Kentucky's pass rush is excellent and Penn State has struggled in protection at times this year.

The Kentucky offense is all about the run. Snell is a good running back, but it is hard to move the ball against a quality defense when you don't any other threats. Kentucky's passing game is very weak. Penn State will be looking to try to make Kentucky beat them through the air. The Wildcats run the ball on about 64% of their plays from scrimmage, and they play at a very slow pace.

Six of Kentucky's last nine games finished with a combined point total of 35 points or less. Penn State has seen four of their last seven games finish at 41 points combined or less. 

Both teams are great at preventing big plays. I expect a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Utah Utes are somewhat similar in that the strength of their defense is the defensive line. Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Whittingham are defensive-minded coaches. Both offensive lines have allowed a lot of tackles for a loss (NW 52nd best and Utah 80th). Utah is 7th in tackles for a loss on defense and NW is 70th. 

Both of these teams have done a good job preventing explosive plays. Both teams have allowed only 20 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Utah is 73rd in the country in plays of 30 yards or more and Northwestern is 117th. Northwestern is 43rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed and Utah is 25th. The two offenses are 62nd and 79th on 3rd down. 

Northwestern is 124th out of 130 in yards per play. This Wildcats offense just isn't any good. Clayton Thorson doesn't have enough weapons around him, and the offensive line is weak. This Utah defensive line is going to give them problems.

Utah will be without their two best playmakers in Britain Covey (WR) and Zack Moss (RB) here. Tyler Huntley is expected to play some at QB after being injured the last few games, but he may not start. 

I see both teams having to work hard to get anything on offense, and these defenses have been great at forcing field goals instead of allowing touchdowns in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are very good at turning games into sloppy low scoring games. How good? Their last seven games of the season all finished with a combined score of 38 points or lower. Four of their last six games finished with 28 points or less. 

The Spartans have an excellent defense and a terrible offense. Michigan State ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. The Spartans is 13th in yards per play allowed. 

Oregon had a lot of high scoring games this year, but this is the best defense they have faced. They also aren't accustomed to teams who play at a very slow tempo as Michigan State does. 

The weather should help here. Santa Clara's Levi's Stadium is known as a nice under field because of the grass and conditions. The wind is expected to be blowing at around 20 mph during the middle of this game. That's a clear plus for the under with it making it harder to get big plays in the passing game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in the final game of the regular season for each team. There are strong under trends in the long term in the final week of the season with bad teams. It is much stronger if the game isn't being played in a dome.

From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. 

The wind could be a bit of a factor here too. Steady winds of 13-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph are forecast for Green Bay on Sunday afternoon.

Detroit's offense has scored 17 points or less in four straight games. Stafford is playing banged up and they are without their star running back Kerryon Johnson. 

Both pass rushes are much better than the offensive line, and that should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo's offense has been woeful at best this year. Buffalo has scored 13 points or less nine times this year. Buffalo has a very conservative offense, and I wouldn't expect that to change much here. 

Miami's offense has been really bad of late. Ryan Tannehill is banged up and the offensive line in front of him is shorthanded as well. They are without multiple top options on offense. The Dolphins scored just 7 points last week against Jacksonville. This Buffalo defense has been tremendous all year. The Dolphins didn't even get to 200 yards in their first game against Buffalo. Buffalo ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Both of these teams play slowly and the weather here calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That should keep things more conservative on the play calling front. 

From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. 

This is a late season game that should be filled with some sloppy offense and a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two excellent defenses. Clemson is first in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks eighth in the country in yards per play allowed. 

Clemson's defensive line is without one starter here in Dexter Lawrence, but I still expect them to be too much for this Notre Dame offensive front. Notre Dame has been acceptable in pass blocking this year, but they have a very hard task ahead of them to keep the pocket clean here. Clemson's Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in the country in my opinion, and I expect this Tigers defense to have a lot of different looks ready. The secondary was good most of the year, though they did have a couple slip ups. I expect them to get a lot of help from the pass rush. It's also important to keep in mind that Ian Book doesn't have much experience, and he hasn't played many good defenses yet. That changes here.

Trevor Lawrence is a really talented quarterback, but he's a freshman and he hasn't faced defensive challenges very often yet. Clemson's run game isn't likely to be able to dominate against this Notre Dame defensive front. Clemson hasn't had a great downfield passing game this year. 

Both of these defenses have been excellent at preventing big plays. That can make scoring take a lot longer, and it increases the likelihood of field goals instead of touchdowns. 

Two great defensive coordinators here and two very young quarterbacks. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers meet in a rematch of last year's bowl game. Wisconsin won that game 34-24 because of a rare great passing game for the offense. Wisconsin will be without Alex Hornibrook for this game due to a concussion. That makes Coan the starting quarterback. He has thrown a lot of very safe short passes in his time under center. There isn't a big threat of the deep ball. 

Wisconsin is good at running the ball, but Miami is 11th in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Hurricanes are very strong in the front seven. Taylor will get his yards here, but I don't think they will come as easy as they do in most games. Especially with Miami knowing there isn't much of a passing threat.

Miami's quarterback situation isn't good at all. The Hurricanes have the 112th ranked passing attack in the country. Wisconsin's defense will likely dare Miami to beat them with the passing game.

Both defenses have been good at not giving up big plays. They both rank in the top 30 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Both offensive are in the bottom half of the country at getting explosive plays.

This game is played at Yankee Stadium in late December. The weather could help the under here as well with cold weather and possible winds.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints haven't scored that many points in recent games, but these are still very good offenses. Pittsburgh throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are throwing the ball on 2/3 of their offensive plays. 

The Steelers should be able to take advantage of the Saints secondary. Marshon Lattimore is very good, but the Saints don't have depth in the secondary. They have played some teams recent who haven't been able to take advantage of that weakness, but the Steelers should be able to.

What about Drew Brees and the Saints offense? They have too many weapons to be bad for too long. The Saints are back in the dome and they have put up big numbers here many times in the past.

This total has been pushed down because of recent results, but I see this as a recency bias situation. 

Two teams who are very capable of scoring in bunches and scoring quickly on the fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are looking to run the ball a lot more and have a more conservative offense under their new offensive coordinator. Minnesota is likely to play slower, and with a lot more runs it means a running clock which is clearly good for the under.

Detroit has been running the ball more lately as well. Why? Matt Stafford is banged up badly and is playing behind a very weak offensive line. Minnesota sacked him 10 times when these two teams met a few weeks ago! The Vikings will be in the backfield a lot again in this one.

Detroit has scored 17 points or less in each of their last four games. The Lions are without Kerryon Johnson and that hurts their efficiency in the running game significantly.

Both teams running it a lot and playing slower than the average NFL tempo. I expect a lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here looks significant. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of about 28 mph with gusts to 40 or 45 mph during this game. There is also a 50% chance of rain.

That kind of weather changes a game significantly. Most defenses fair much better against the run than they normally do in these conditions. Why? The opposing offense is more predictable. 

FIU's offense is all about getting big plays in the passing game. Those will be much harder to come by with this weather. 

The FIU defense has done a great job keeping the opposition from breaking big plays. That's important against a Toledo offense that is capable of breaking big plays in the running game.

The pace that these two play at isn't very quick for a total set this high. FIU ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country. Toledo ranks 49th. Both teams will use a decent amount of time between the snaps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers and Northern Illinois Huskies meet in an early season bowl game in the Boca Raton Bowl. UAB is all about running the football and they take their time between snaps. They can use a bunch of clock getting down the field, and if they are forced to kick a field goal it really helps the under a lot. 

Northern Illinois is 129th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Huskies simply can't do much of anything on offense. Northern Illinois has been up against weak MAC defenses all year, and they still didn't have much success. 

On the other hand, Northern Illinois is a great defensive team. They rank third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That's important since UAB is going to run the ball so often here. Northern Illinois is a tremendous defensive front. They have 50 sacks this year, and they should be in the backfield a bunch. 

UAB's defensive front is very aggressive, and Northern Illinois often hurts themselves with big negative plays on first down. UAB can take advantage of that to put them in bad spots.

This looks like a very low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have been a good under team at Levi's Stadium since it opened. The under is 23-14 in their home games since this stadium opened. Divisional home games are 10-4 to the under.

Seattle runs the ball as much as anyone in the NFL. The Seahawks are looking to control the ball and use up a lot of time on offense. It has been working very well.

San Francisco's defense is a very solid 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. The 49ers offense is certainly limited with so many injuries. Nick Mullens hasn't done a bad job, but he isn't dynamic by any means. 

The weather here plays a big factor in my reason for taking this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts to 26 mph during the game. It also calls for rain which could be heavy at times. Rain and wind combined is a big positive for the under. Look for an even more conservative game plan from both teams here, and that helps the defenses know what is coming.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have totally changed their offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson is under center and the Ravens are looking to run the ball as much as possible. Most NFL teams are throwing the ball more than 60% of the time, but the Ravens are running it about 65% of the time in their last three games. Gus Edwards is getting a bunch of carries, and that should be the case again here.

Tampa Bay's defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Bucs are far from a great defense, but they aren't as bad as they looked earlier this year. Tampa Bay is a little healthier on the defensive end now than they were earlier this year. Tampa Bay is 20th in yards per play allowed in their last three games compared to 31st for the season. The Bucs are also better at stopping the run than the pass.

Baltimore's defense is easily number one in the league so far this year. The Ravens excel at stopping the pass, and that's what Tampa Bay wants to do here. I don't see Winston and this Bucs offense having much success through the air. Tampa Bay has a really weak ground game as well.

The weather here could be very helpful. Winds of 10-12 mph with rain showers are expected in the game. That should make the offenses more conservative and predictable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are much weaker without Sanders as their primary wide receiver. Case Keenum isn't a terrible quarterback, but he needs weapons around him. He's short on weapons now. Denver can run the football, and I would expect them to run it even more than normal here. That takes more time off the clock.

Cleveland's offense has played very well of late, but they have been up against some very weak defenses. Denver's elite pass rush could pose some problems for the Browns passing game here. Cleveland still is only 18th in yards per play on offense. The Browns have also faced one of the easiest schedules of defensive units so far this year. Mayfield has been good and the Browns offense is much improved, but this is still a tough task for them at Denver at altitude.

These two defenses have both faced a very tough schedule of offensive units this year. I believe these two defenses are better than their numbers look right now.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles rank 130th in the nation in pace of play. They are using about 33 seconds between plays. Georgia Southern is also running the ball on nearly 85% of their offensive plays. They can use up a ton of time getting down the field. 

Eastern Michigan's defense has had a long time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Southern. That has to be a positive. The more time you have to prepare for a unique offense, the more it helps the defense. Eastern Michigan also did a pretty good job slowing down Army's triple option. Army only averaged 4.0 yards per carry in their win over Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan's offense doesn't have much of a run game at all. They are left to try to throw the ball, but this offensive line is terrible in pass protection. Eastern Michigan often has a hard time recovering from these big negative plays on offense. 

A big key to this selection is the ability of both teams to prevent big plays. Georgia Southern allowed only 17 plays of 30 yards or more this year (12th best in the nation). Eastern Michigan allowed only 18 plays of 30 yards or more (20th best in the country). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense has really impressed me in the last couple seasons. This is a very well-coached unit. Fresno State ranks 19th in yards per play allowed. They also rank as a top 12 defense against the pass. 

Arizona State's passing attack takes a big hit with N'Keal Harry sitting this game out. I expect the Sun Devils to rely more on the ground. While they are likely to get some yards here, I don't think it will come all that easy. Fresno State knows the Sun Devils are without their star wideout and they'll be loading up the box more than normal.

The Fresno State offense hasn't been very good running the ball this year. They have been very good throwing the ball, but the Mountain West had some very weak pass defenses this year. I'm not convinced they'll tear up the Arizona State secondary as they have some other teams. 

I think Arizona State runs the ball much more than normal here and plays conservatively. Both teams play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns both have very solid offenses. These are both offenses that rely on the run, but they both get a lot of big gainers on offense as well.

Tulane has a whopping 36 plays of 30 yards or more (14th in the country) this season. Louisiana has been even better with an impressive 40 plays of 30 yards or more. That is ninth best in the country. How are the defenses when it comes to defending explosive plays? These two teams have allowed 34 and 33 plays of 30 yards or more, meaning both of them rank in the bottom 30 in the country in that category. There should be some big plays here.

Tulane found a good playmaker at quarterback in Justin McMillan. He has made good decisions in the option offense, and throws a decent ball as well. 

The Ragin' Cajuns defense was consistently allowing a bunch of yards and points this year. They allowed a whopping 6.39 yards per play. They only held one FBS team below 26 points. 

The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been great and they are balanced. They put up 42 points or more five times this year.

These are explosive offenses and this isn't a total that is all that high.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Eagles offense is better than they were earlier this year. Darren Sproles is still good enough to make some big plays. Golden Tate is a key addition as well. Carson Wentz has more weapons to get the ball to, and with this game played on the fast track at Dallas I see the Eagles throwing for quite a few yards here. While Dallas is excellent against the run, they have been inconsistent against the pass this year.

Dallas is an elite running team with a star running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, the Eagles have a bottom five rushing defense in the NFL. Elliot should have a big day here. While the Cowboys passing game isn't very good, they are clearly better with Cooper on the outside, and they have some play action capability at this point. 

It was 27-20 earlier this year when these two played. Both offenses are clearly better than they were earlier this season. This one is indoors as well which helps the over quite a bit.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Over* Andrew Luck and the Colts offense was averaging 34 points per game in their previous eight games before being shut out last week. I wouldn't expect the Colts to have a dud of an offensive game two weeks in a row. This Texans defense is elite against the run, but they aren't very good against the pass. They have a multitude of injuries in the secondary right now as well, so an already questionable pass defense is even worse. Indianapolis plays at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NFL. 

Houston's offense has been much better of late. Watson is looking more like the quarterback we saw last year, and the running game has improved. Houston ranks 8th in tempo, so they'll be pushing the pace as well. The Colts defense is at a disadvantage here against the pass. I don't believe they have enough depth in the secondary to prevent some big plays in the passing game. 

The first meeting between these two was 31-31 before overtime. That game was in a dome and this is in a dome as well. We should see a lot of possessions based on the tempo of each team. I see two passing attacks who have an edge vs. the pass defenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears take on the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. Chicago is expected to have Chase Daniels under center. Daniels didn't look very good last week under center against Detroit, and the Lions defense is a weak one. I wouldn't count on big things from him here either. 

The Giants offense is 11th in yards per play in the NFL, but the Bears rank 2nd in yards per play allowed. The Bears are 19th in yards per play on offense, but I expect the Giants to load the box and dare Daniels to beat them throwing the football. 

Both of these teams move slowly. There won't be all that many possessions in this game. The Bears will be running the ball even more than normal, and the Giants want to run more often than they have so far this year as well. 

I wouldn't expect many big plays here. Both defensive fronts have an advantage against the offensive line in front of them, and I think there will be more tackles for a loss here than in a normal contest.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Total of the YEAR* The Green Bay Packers host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Arizona ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play. They have the worst passing attack and the worst running attack. Arizona's offensive line is weak, and Green Bay can really get after the passer. 

Arizona isn't bad on defense. The Cardinals are 9th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. They still have a good amount of very talented players on the defensive end. Green Bay's offensive line has struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers, and I see Arizona making it difficult for them. 

The weather here is very important. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 34 degrees and 20 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a chance of snow showers during the game (it is likely to be snowy in Green Bay Sunday before this game- and some snow during the game is at least possible). This is a huge plus for the under. It leads to more running and a much more conservative game plan. 

Arizona shouldn't be able to score very many at all here. The Packers offense isn't what it once was, and Arizona's defense is better than most realize.

Take the under. TOP Total of the Year.  *Be sure to still use wise bankroll management here- this is just a bigger play than most of mine* Thanks and good luck. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense put on a show last week against Michigan. That was the top ranked defense in the country before Ohio State put up 62 points and more than 500 yards on them last week. Last week wasn't the first week the Buckeyes offense has looked good though. The passing attack is excellent with Dwayne Haskins leading the way. Haskins has a rocket for an arm and he has quite a few good receiving options on the outside. The Buckeyes running game has improved some in recent weeks as well. 

Northwestern's offense has improved toward the end of the year. Bowser has given them at least some decent production in the backfield. This is a team that throws it around often though, and they'll throw it around against a weak Ohio State secondary here. Clayton Thorson is a solid quarterback, and I think he'll have a good game here.

Both of these teams push the tempo, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game. Ohio State absolutely needs to win big here and be impressive, so I think they'll have their foot to the floor the whole game. We should see a wide open playbook as the Buckeyes showed last weekend. The Buckeyes defense has been weak all year, and I see Northwestern scoring a decent amount here too.

This game is played on a fast track under a dome in Indianapolis which should help the scoring as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs know each other very well at this point. They played twice last year, and this will be their second meeting this year. The previous three meetings were all won by Boise State with the following scores: 28-17, 17-14, and 24-17. None of those games were even very close to this total. 

In a title game, the motivation level should be very high to start with, and you know how badly Fresno has to want to beat Boise State now. The higher the motivation level- long-term it is good for the under. 

There is a slight chance of snow showers during this game. If that does come to fruition it helps the under ever so slightly in my opinion. 

Boise State's defensive numbers on the year are disappointing for sure, but they have played much better of late. Boise State has a lot of talent on defense, and I think this group is better than the statistics say. Fresno State has an elite defense, and they are great at not giving up big plays. 

Both teams play much slower than an average team, and that clearly helps as well.

This one should be a great game, and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* This is the Conference USA title game, and we have two well-coached teams here. MTSU beat UAB 27-3 last week, though that game meant very little to UAB. 

This is the game that decides the Conference USA title, and I expect a strong effort from both teams. 

UAB is a very run-heavy team. The Blazers rank 115th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo as well, so they can really eat up the clock as they move down the field. UAB also has multiple injuries on the offensive line. If those guys play they are going to be less than 100 percent. AJ Erdely the team's starting QB, is dealing with a shoulder injury. He'll likely try to play through the pain. 

MTSU's defensive line dominated UAB's offensive line last weekend. The Blue Raiders defensive front has turned into one of the best in the conference. 

MTSU's offense is all about the passing game with Brent Stockstill at quarterback. UAB has the best pass defense in the conference. The Blazers are very experienced in the secondary and I expect them to be well-prepared for the Blue Raiders passing attack here.

The weather is a big plus for the under. The average of forecasts now calls for rain and winds of about 16-18 mph for this one. That makes MTSU run the ball more and they aren't efficient there. It should reduce the amount of explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-17 at home earlier this year. That was a regular season game, and this is the Sun Belt Conference title game. This game clearly means a lot to both teams.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a great rushing attack,  but Appalachian State's defensive front is very good. App State ranks first in the Sun Belt in yards per carry allowed this year. I think they'll do a good job once again against the Louisiana running attack.

Appalachian State has a good offense, but it isn't as dynamic as it was earlier this year. The Mountaineers lost star running back Jalen Moore to an injury, and that hurts the offense quite a bit. Thomas is a good quarterback, but Moore was the star of the show at running back.

Both teams play slowly. Louisiana ranks 87th in tempo and Appalachian State ranks 99th in the country in tempo. Both teams run the ball much more than the average team in the country, so there is a lot of moving clock when they play each other.

The weather here should be a factor. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 42 degrees with 13 mph winds and gusts of 20 mph or slightly higher. All forecasts are calling for a very high chance of rain as well. Cold rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* With Ryan Tannehill getting back on the field for this one, I like the value on the over. 

Andrew Luck and this Indianapolis Colts offense are firing on all cylinders right now. The Colts having a good offensive line and a good running back in Marlon Mack is making a huge difference. The Colts are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL right now as well. Miami's defense ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins are giving up 6.4 yards per play on the road.

The Colts defense is middle of the pack, but they have faced weaker offenses in many recent weeks. Miami does have speed and with Tannehill they have more big play ability.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have played 11 games this year. None of them have gone over this total. San Diego State excels at controlling the time of possession, running the play clock down and keeping their defense off the field. 

Hawaii is a big play offense, but San Diego State is good when it comes to not giving up big plays. The Hawaii defense has been much stronger against the run in recent weeks, which is important since San Diego State will be running the ball a lot here. 

This is a similar type of game to Hawaii/Army earlier in the year. Army runs it better than San Diego State though, and San Diego State has a better defense. I think we see a game in the 40's as San Diego State gets a lead and then runs the ball and eats up a bunch of the clock. Hawaii plays only at an average pace, and San Diego State plays very slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SMU has to win this game to become bowl eligible. Teams looking to become bowl eligible in their final game of the regular season have been strong trends toward the under. That certainly makes sense to me because as games means more it tends to help the under.

It has surprised me that SMU has actually been better on the defensive end than on offense this year. When Sonny Dykes took over, that isn't what you would expect. However, SMU has been winning games thanks to their defense. SMU's defensive numbers in the conference would make them a top 50 defense in the country. 

Tulsa is averaging a brutal 4.26 yards per play in the conference. Remember, this isn't a conference with many good defenses either. Tulsa is just that bad on offense. They have no passing game at all. 

SMU is all about the pass. The Mustangs have a very weak running attack. Ben Hicks and the passing game are solid, but Tulsa is much better against the pass than the run on defense.

The weather here helps the under also. Winds of 16 mph with gusts above 20 should make it harder to move the ball through the air.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over*  Louisiana Lafayette has a brilliant offense and a weak defense. The Ragin' Cajuns are 11th in the nation in yards per play. They are 107th in the nation in yards per play allowed. This is a team that has a whopping 35 plays of 30 yards or more so far this year. 

LA Monroe's offense has been a bit disappointing of late, but they tore up this LA Lafayette defense last year, and I think they'll have a lot of success here too. Monroe has had terrible turnover issues in the red zone this year, and with some normalization of those red zone numbers their offense should improve.

A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners were blasted last week at Western Kentucky. That was primarily because of a ridiculous turnover problem. UTEP's defense has actually gotten a lot better throughout the season. UTEP is doing a good job not giving up big plays. The Miners are 50th best in the country allowing only 46 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. UTEP's yards per play allowed has trended in the right direction inside conference play.

Southern Miss has been great on defense this year. The Golden Eagles are 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss has allowed only 29 plays of 20 yards or more, which is 5th best in the country.

The weather should play a role here too. Winds of about 20 mph are expected in El Paso for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday. This is a big rivalry game, and we've seen a bunch of lower scoring games when these two get together. 

Georgia Tech couldn't get anything going offensively last year in this matchup. Kirby Smart is a great defensive mind, and I would be surprised if Georgia Tech's triple option attack has a ton of success here. Georgia Tech's passing attack is terrible.

Both teams are very run heavy, and both teams move slowly. In fact, both rank in the bottom 12 in the country in terms of tempo.

A slow pace in a rivalry game with a lot of moving clock- I believe this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This number is a case where recency bias has allowed us to get a lower number than we should have on this game. Texas Tech is coming off a really poor offensive outing against Kansas State. The Kansas State secondary is solid though, and it is important to note that there were winds of 20-25 mph in that game. That helped slow down Texas Tech as well.

Baylor is coming off a couple low scoring games, but that was against Iowa State and TCU. Those are great defensive teams that are limited on offense. That isn't the type of opponent Baylor has in this game.

Baylor has allowed 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Texas Tech has allowed 33 plays of 30 yards or more this year. 

This one is played in AT&T Stadium, which is certainly good for the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* If you just look at these two teams from a statistical standpoint, this total looks about right. If you look at more of the outside factors, this total appears too high. Both of these teams are 5-6 and need a win here to get to a bowl game. The under trends are strong when one team is trying to reach a bowl game, and they are very strong when both teams are attempting to reach a bowl game.

In addition, the forecast calls for winds of 12 or 13 mph. That isn't enough to make a huge difference, but it does have a small effect on the game.

Thirdly, this is a very hard fought rivalry. The winner of this game gets the Old Oaken Bucket. It's one of the best rivalry trophies in sports. 

These two badly want to beat each other, and there is a lot on the line. This total has been bet up to where I have to take the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have already wrapped up their side of the MAC. That means they can play wide open in this one. Bowling Green has nothing to play for here other than pride. The less the game means to both teams, the more helpful it is to an over in my opinion.

Buffalo's passing attack with Jackson and Johnson are too good for this Bowling Green secondary. Buffalo's defense looked bad last week and I think Bowling Green's uptempo offense can do enough here as well.

Both of these offenses have been bad in the red zone, and I think they are bound to have some positive regression toward the mean as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa has played some tremendous defense at home this year. The Hawkeyes are giving up 11 points per game at home. Iowa ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's run defense is a huge area of strength. Iowa ranks third in the nation in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Iowa is allowing only 3.08 ypc. That's important here since Nebraska is a team that relies on running the ball. The Cornhuskers average 5.49 ypc, but I don't see them being able to gash the Hawkeyes defense like they have to many others this year. Iowa's defense has only allowed 23 plays of 20 yards or more all year. That is second best in the country. 

Iowa's offense is much better in the passing game than the running game. Iowa is averaging only 3.97 yards per play on the year. Nebraska's secondary has been strong, but their run defense has been susceptible. I'm not sure Iowa has the running game to take advantage of that. 

The passing attacks will be impacted by the weather here. The weather calls for steady light rain and 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph during this game. That's a clear plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have been putting up amazing offensive numbers this year. They have gotten better as the year goes along. Drew Brees is playing fantastic football right now, and his wideouts are excellent. It also helps that the Saints offensive line is tremendous in pass protection.

The Falcons rank 27th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Brees torched this Atlanta defense the first time they met, and I think he'll do it again here. The Falcons secondary is  more banged up than it was the first time these two played this year. 

Atlanta still has a very good passing attack, and the one weakness of this Saints team is their pass defense. New Orleans ranks 28th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Saints pass rush is below average as well. Matt Ryan should be able to have another big day. He threw for 5 touchdowns and no picks in the first meeting.

This is a high total, but today's NFL is quite a bit different than it was a few years ago. The offenses have the upper hand based on the rules. 

This one is played on the fast track in New Orleans. I expect a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force triple option is hard to prepare for any time, but when you have a short week like Colorado State does here, it is especially difficult. Colorado State ranks 124th in the country in yards per play allowed. This is a defense that has struggled badly all season.

Collin Hill has done a decent job leading this offense since taking over at quarterback. Colorado State will throw it a lot, and Air Force's clear weakness on defense is their secondary. Air Force is 120th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

The weather looks fine for this one and I see both offenses moving the ball a lot.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores host the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday. Ole Miss has been able to turn just about all of their games into shootouts with their elite offense and very weak defense. 

Ole Miss has been so successful this year because they are a big play offense. Ole Miss has a whopping 48 plays of 30 yards or more on offense this year. That's because Jordan Ta'amu has a good deep ball, and Ole Miss has the best group of receivers in the SEC. 

Vanderbilt's offense has been better than most expected this year. Shurmur has been playing well at quarterback, and the Commodores still have a decent running game. Ole Miss has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or longer, which is the 15th most in the nation. 

Both teams air it out a lot, which helps since the incompletions also stop the clock. Ole Miss won 57-35 when these two played last year. I wouldn't expect that many points here, but I do think another back and forth affair is coming.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Over* East Carolina ranks fifth in the nation in pace of play. The Pirates are going to keep playing really fast. East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient this year though. Holton Ahlers is a guy the coaching staff is high on, and I expect him to improve over time. Ahlers will get a great chance here against a hapless defense.

The Pirates offense has been inefficient this year, but they are up against a UConn Huskies defense that is historically bad. UConn is allowing 8.88 yards per play (easily last in the country). Have they gotten better in conference play? Nope. They are allowing an even worse 9.26 yards per play in the AAC. They have allowed a mind-boggling 89 plays of 20 yards or more this year. 

The East Carolina defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. The Pirates have allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more. UConn's offense is middle of the road, but with a lot of possessions in this one they should put up enough in this situation.

Both offenses have had some bad luck in the red zone- which suggests that positive regression could be on the way especially when facing a weak defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force and Wyoming have both been a bit questionable on defense against the pass this year, but both of these teams excel at stopping the run. That works out for this selection since both offenses are virtually unable to throw the ball. 

Air Force has the 71st best rushing attack (ypc) in the country this year when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Wyoming ranks 17th at stopping the run. 

Wyoming has the 47th best rushing attack (ypc) in the country when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Air Force ranks 24th at stopping the run.

Both of these teams are much slower than the average team in terms of tempo. 

The weather forecast calls for 19 degrees with winds of 12-14 mph and about 4 inches of snow on Saturday. These conditions clearly help the under.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Play Top Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and UL Monroe Warhawks meet this Saturday and I expect a lot of points here.

Arkansas State and ULM rank first and second in the Sun Belt in tempo. There will be a bunch of possessions in this game. Both teams are big play offenses and both defenses have given up a lot of big plays throughout the season. 

The strength of the ULM offense is their rushing attack. They are 39th in the nation in yards per carry. Arkansas State's biggest defensive weakness is against the run. Arkansas State has a big edge in the passing game against a terrible ULM secondary. 

Last year these teams played to a 67-50 final score. Arkansas State had 781 yards compared to 590 for ULM. 

Ironically, both of these teams have scored 38 and 44 points in their last two games leading into this one. The offenses are clicking right now and the offenses should have the upper hand all the way in this one.

Take the over. Top Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped four points during the week, and it is low enough now that I am going to take the over. Northwestern ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats have locked up the Big Ten West. I would expect them to continue to play hard for Pat Fitzgerald though. 

There might have been some concerns about the weather from some, but the only real concern here is the cold temperature. A temperature around 23 degrees is expected, but winds of just 6 or 7 mph are in the forecast. In the past 10 years, games with a temperature of 30 degrees or lower and less than 10 mph winds have cashed to the over at a 58.5% rate.

Minnesota's defense is allowing a whopping 7.22 yards per play in the Big Ten. Northwestern's offense isn't very good, but they play fast and should be able to improve on their numbers from the year against this really weak defense. Minnesota's secondary has been very weak since Antoine Winfield Jr. has been out with an injury.

The Minnesota offense has been much better since Morgan started playing at QB. Minnesota is averaging 34.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB ranks 8th in the country in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss ranks 16th in yards per play allowed. Both of these defenses are much improved from a year ago. Both offenses play much slower than the average team. UAB is favored here and is likely to be winning and running the clock and taking their time in the second half.

Southern Miss has very little running game and UAB has a tremendous secondary. I think Southern Miss will have a lot of trouble scoring here.

UAB and Southern Miss are both very good at not giving up big chunks of yardage. There should be a lot of moving clock here and a limited amount of big plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. They have a veteran quarterback and the best wide receivers in the conference. Coastal Carolina's defense has been extremely weak all year. Coastal Carolina is allowing a whopping 8.48 yards per play in the Sun Belt. That's easily worst in the league. Coastal Carolina is worst in both pass defense and run defense in the league. 

Coastal Carolina's triple option should be able to move the ball against a weak Arkansas State run defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 5.52 yards per carry in the conference. Coastal Carolina is 34th in the nation in yards per play.

Arkansas State has allowed 28 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Coastal Carolina has allowed 30 plays of 30 yards or more. These are both among the worst in the nation. I see a lot of explosive plays back and forth here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Alabama offense is tremendous, but Mississippi State clearly has the best defense they have faced so far this year. LSU ranks 39th in yards per play allowed. Mississippi State ranks 5th in yards per play allowed. Alabama will get their points here,  but I think it will be tougher than it normally has for them this season.
Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald hasn't proven he is capable of doing much of anything through the air against any quality defenses this year. Alabama will load up the box and force him to beat them through the air. While Alabama's defensive stats don't look amazing compared to some years, when they are in a closer game where they are focused like we saw last week against LSU this unit is elite. 
Both teams play very slow. Mississippi State ranks 110th in pace of play and Alabama ranks 91st. A lot of running from both teams here helps the clock keep moving.
Alabama is less likely to be fully motivated and that lowers the odds of them running up the score here. They wanted to prove a point last week and they proved that point in Baton Rouge.
Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have changed the way they play this year. Charlotte was a fast paced team with a weak defense in the past. Now, the defense is the strength of this team and they are slowing things down and running the ball as much as possible to stay in the game. It has helped them stay competitive. They only allowed 7 points on defense against Tennessee last week.

Marshall has the best defense in Conference USA, and it would surprise me quite a bit if Charlotte is able to do much of anything on offense in this game. Marshall beat Charlotte 14-3 last year on the road.

I expect another low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* Troy has the best run defense in the Sun Belt Conference. Georgia Southern is going to run the ball consistently with their triple option attack. I expect Troy to be much better at stopping it than a normal team. Georgia Southern plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country as well. A lot of moving clock and long drives. If they are doing anything other than scoring a touchdown it is helping the under.

The Troy Trojans offense is a lot less explosive now that they are starting their backup quarterback. Troy has had some very low scoring games of late, and I think this one will trend the same way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over * The UMass defense is extremely weak. How bad are they? They are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in yards per carry allowed. UMass still pushes the pace on offense. They rank 28th in tempo in the country. 

I've been impressed by Ross Comis' play at quarterback. He hasn't been the big step down from Andrew Ford that I expected him to be. The Minutemen have continued to be excellent on offense.

BYU's offense hasn't played a defense this weak so far this season, and I expect them to break a lot of big gainers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have a good passing attack. Their problem has been an inability to run the football. Ohio State is 57th in the nation in yards per carry this year. Inside the Big Ten, Ohio State is averaging only 3.66 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Their offensive line has struggled in a big way. Michigan State ranks third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Michigan State just held Maryland to 0.9 yards per carry last game. That's important because before that game Maryland had been the best rushing attack in the Big Ten.

Ohio State's secondary has been a major problem this year, but I don't think Michigan State has the weapons needed to shred this secondary like some other opponents have. The Spartans are badly banged up at wide receiver. Michigan State will try to slow the game down as they always do. 

The weather here should play a role in this game. The weather forecast calls for winds of 18-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There is even a chance for some wind-blown snow showers in this one. That should limit Ohio State's passing attack and make both offenses more predictable.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams offense has all sorts of weapons. Cooper Kupp is now back in the fold, and he's been a great fit for this offensive system. Jared Goff is playing with all sorts of confidence right now. 

The Rams are 4th in the NFL in yards per play, and their offense is healthier this week. The Rams have a top three passing attack in the NFL, and they are up against a very weak secondary in the Saints. Eli Apple has been a major liability for this Saints secondary since coming over, and the Rams have the guys to take advantage of his weakness in coverage. The Saints are without Marcus Davenport as well, and he's a big loss as they try to rush the passer and disrupt the Rams rhythm. Look for Jared Goff and company to have a lot of success through the air here. 

The Rams also have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley. The Saints have a good run defense, but they can't be as aggressive against the run as they normally are in this one. 

The New Orleans Saints offense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play. Drew Brees can still sling it around, and he leads a very balanced attack. Kamara is a complete player who fits brilliantly in the system. The Saints have multiple very good route runners at wide receiver. If they need to run with power, the Rams defense ranks 26th against the run so far this year.

New Orleans is excellent on offense in general, but they are elite offensively in the Superdome. 

Both teams prefer to play quickly, and I see a back and forth high scoring game here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has been a lot better with Ryan Fitzpatrick out there than Jameis Winston so far this year. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in yards per play. They are very explosive with a deep ball threat from Jackson on the outside and Evans is one of the best receivers in the NFL as well. The Panthers secondary ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pass defense.

Carolina ranks first in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bucs defense is below average against the run, and they are dead last in pass defense. Cam Newton is starting to play better, and he Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up now. 

Both quarterbacks are capable of big plays both ways. Fitzpatrick and Newton are prone to pick-sixes and/or big gainers. That helps the over significantly. The Panthers are a pretty big favorite here, and Tampa Bay showed last week how quick they can put up points late in a game where they are behind and the opposition is playing a prevent defense.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The AFC North has been a tremendous division to bet the under in the past decade. The under is 59-34 (63.4% wins) in an AFC North contest with a total of 41 or higher. This is a hard hitting division where the teams know each other very well and the defenses typically have the upper hand.

The Steelers defense looked very weak in the first couple games of the year, but they are now all the way up to 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore is 1st in yards per play allowed. 

Pittsburgh's offense is 6th in yards per play, while Baltimore is only 27th. The Steelers have been much worse offensively on the road the last few seasons though. 

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. This is a game that means a bunch to both teams and I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans have a new play caller in this game (Clay Helton) and they get to go against the weakest defense in the Pac 12. In fact, Oregon State ranks 127th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. USC is expected to get JT Daniels back for this game, and the USC passing game has a huge advantage here. USC's receivers should have a big day with a lot of open space and height advantages for them over the DB's. Oregon State is allowing a whopping 8.2 yards per play in Pac 12 action this season.

USC's defense has disappointed this year. Oregon State's offense has been much better than expected this season. Jake Luton came back last week for Oregon State and he threw for more than 300 yards against Colorado despite not playing any the first half. He gives the team a much better quarterback now. Look for Oregon State to get some big plays on offense as well. USC is without star linebacker Porter Gustin.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tulane is all about running the football, and that's a good thing against this USF defense. USF has a good secondary, but they are weak in the front seven. USF ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 42nd in the nation in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Look for Tulane to run the ball early and often in this option offense and get some big gainers here.

South Florida's offense plays at a very quick tempo. The Bulls rank 8th in the nation in pace of play. They are up against a Tulane defense that ranks 81st in defensive yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bulls should be able to move the ball well here. USF has a lot of speed on offense, and that should be hard for Tulane to defend.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UMass was involved in a low scoring game against UConn due to the weather last week. They are going to be involved in another game with pretty extreme weather here, and I have to take under this high of a number.

The average forecast for this game calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 55 or 60 mph. That kind of weather completely changes the game. In fact, 20 mph sustained winds have made the under hit at a little over 63% in CFB in the long term. In this one we get sustained winds of that amount and some ridiculous gusts. 

While neither defense is good- it is important to note that UMass is without star quarterback Andrew Ford. Also, both of these teams are much worse running the football than throwing it. If the weather forecasts are right, they'll have to run it more here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have a way of making everything high scoring. This is a really explosive offense with Jordan Ta'amu at the helm, but they also might have the worst defense in the SEC. 

South Carolina has moved to an uptempo offense. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of pace of play. That will mean a bunch of possessions for both offenses, and Ole Miss games have a lot of big plays both ways because of their strong offense and weak defense. 

The SEC doesn't normally see these shootouts, so the oddsmakers kept the total a little too low here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Texas A&M and Auburn meet on Saturday afternoon. Auburn has been a great under team so far this year, and I don't see that changing here. 

Texas A&M ranks 112th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies are trying to establish a run game more with Jimbo Fisher as their head coach. The problem for them here is Auburn's defensive line is tremendous, and they should get into the backfield often.

Auburn's offensive line is a major problem, and Texas A&M has been strong on the defensive front this year. Stidham isn't playing with any confidence. 

Auburn has forced every game this year into a low scoring battle, and Texas A&M wants a physical low scoring game as well. The styles of these teams should lead to a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* A lot of tempo should be expected here. These two teams rank 5th and 2nd out of 130 teams in the nation in terms of tempo.

Wake Forest's running game is the strength of their offense, and that is where they have a big edge here. Wake Forest's rushing attack ranks 24th in the nation compared to the Syracuse run defense of 87th. 

Syracuse is a balanced offense, and this Wake Forest defense has been very weak against both passing and running teams this year. Wake Forest is 115th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

The Syracuse defense is one that I have singled out as in line for regression especially since they have been very fortunate on third down so far this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final score was 64-43.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins offense is all about the running game. Maryland ranks third in the country in yards per carry this year, but they played a relatively soft schedule. Maryland still ranks 11th in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule played, but Michigan State's defense ranks 7th in rushing defense. The Spartans aren't likely to let Maryland just run the ball consistently. Maryland hasn't proven capable of moving it through the air against anyone decent this season.

Michigan State's offense is very weak right now. Their top two wide receivers from before the year are both out now. The Spartans rank 125th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. Maryland's defense ranks 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. 

Michigan State always plays slowly under Mark Dantonio, and Maryland is playing very slowly this year. In fact, Maryland's tempo in Big Ten play alone would rank them among the ten slowest paced teams in the entire country. 

The weather here is an added bonus. The average of 5 different forecasts I reviewed is 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That is enough to slow the passing games down some more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a bunch of points for a game between two teams with bad offenses. Bowling Green is 98th in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is 108th in the nation in yards per play. 

Both of these teams are very weak on defense, and that's why this game has gotten bet up, but I see another key factor in this game. The forecast calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the game moves on. That's a lot of wind for this high of a total. In the long run games with winds of 15 mph or greater in NCAA FB have gone under the total at about 57%. 

Bowling Green slowed their tempo down in their first game under Pelini as head coach as well. The Falcons are likely to continue to play a bit slower now, and I would expect some more running the football.

With the wind and this high of a total, I have to play the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are clearly a better offense in the dome, and they get to play a road game in another dome here. Drew Brees is as solid as ever, and he has some great weapons around him. Brees and the Saints offense have a clear advantage over a Vikings secondary that is very banged up. Adjusted for strength of schedule, I have the Vikings as the 22nd best pass defense in the NFL thus far. Xavier Rhodes might try to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.

The Vikings are airing it out on offense this year. They are throwing on nearly 67% of their offensive plays. Adjusted for strength of schedule played- the Saints have the 29th best pass defense. Kirk Cousins has some elite receivers and they should be able to get open and create big plays in the passing game.

Two teams who like to throw it around against subpar pass defenses.

The over is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Minnesota. An 11-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. This game will be played in some major wind by Lake Michigan at Soldier Field. Taking an average forecast from 5 different weather sources- the wind is expected to be about 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the game as well. That's the type of wind that can change the way a game is played. 

The Jets offense is very shorthanded right now with Bilal Powell out. He's a key player both in the running game and in the passing game (and pass blocking). Sam Darnold has been good this year, but he's without Powell and 2 starting wide receivers as well. The Bears have a good pass rush, and I think it will be hard for New York to move the ball consistently here.

The Bears offense must rely heavily on the run game because Mitchell Trubisky just isn't good enough to rely on consistently. The strength of the Jets defense is the run defense though. New York ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. 

Both teams play at a pace slightly slower than average in the NFL. With both teams being forced to play conservatively and key offensive players missing- I like this one to stay low scoring in the wind.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Ravens defense has no clear weaknesses. They are very good against both the run and pass, and they have a good pass rush.

Carolina is an elite rushing team, but they haven't been good throwing the ball this year. Baltimore has a top three run defense in the NFL. Carolina has only faced one top run defense this year (Dallas), and they struggled mightily with them in a 16-8 win. 

The Baltimore offense ranks 28th in the NFL in yards per play. That isn't good to start with, but it is especially weak when you realize they have played quite a few mediocre or worse defenses. The Baltimore running game is non-existent. 

I see this as a hard hitting contest that stays close and low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Blake Bortles has been a mess and this Jaguars offense is without their star running back Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville has scored 7 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. I don't trust this offense one bit.

Jacksonville's defense is still excellent. Adjusted for strength of schedule played I have the Jaguars as the best pass defense in the NFL. They have a good pass rush as well, and I think they'll make life tough on Wentz in this one.

The Eagles offense ranks 26th in yards per play on the season. That is despite playing only the 26th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. The Eagles struggle in pass protection, and that's a problem in this matchup.

The weather could play a role here. Winds of about 15 mph are expected and there is a 25% chance of rain. It isn't the primary reason I took this under, but it's a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange have two very good quarterbacks. NC State's defense isn't as good as their statistics would suggest. NC State's defense was exposed last week against Clemson, and I expect them to struggle the rest of the way. NC State's secondary is no better than mediocre, and they can be beaten deep by good wide receivers.

The Syracuse defense is in line for some major regression to the mean. Syracuse is only allowing opponents to convert on 24.76% on 3rd down. That isn't going to continue. Syracuse ranks 83rd in yards per play overall and 96th in ypc allowed. Why would a defense that can't stop the run be good on third downs? It's a perfect setup for regression and many more points allowed going forward for Syracuse. 

Take the over.