*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns meet in Cleveland on Sunday. These two teams are 7th and 14th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The offenses are solid, but they don't play fast. It might surprise you to know that Arizona ranks 24th in overall tempo this year. Cleveland ranks an even slower 29th.

Cleveland is coming off a high scoring game and that is part of the reason the total is so high here. This game appears to setup differently though.

The weather for this game looks highly suspect. Right now, there are winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the forecast. We saw last year what the extreme wind from the lake in Cleveland can do to make a game much lower scoring. 

Even without extreme weather I think this projects as a game where both teams can limit the big plays from the other side. The weather is a great bonus though. 

Look for a hard fought game with more running of the football than a normal NFL game, which will keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Football team has allowed 30 points or more to every team they have played this year. Now, they host the Kansas City Chiefs who have arguably the best offense in football. It isn't going to go well for the Washington defense in this game either.

Buffalo put up 43 points on this Washington defense. Kansas City is 2-3 and they should be upset after their home loss to the Bills on Sunday night. I'll be very surprised if Mahomes and company aren't on point offensively against this terrible Washington secondary.

Speaking of bad defenses, the Kansas City Chiefs rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and it isn't even close.

Washington is a middle of the road offense, but I think Taylor Heinicke and company can have a good game here against the very weak Chiefs defense. Washington has averaged 26.75 points per game in their last four games. They should put up a good number here again.

Two terrible secondaries and the quarterbacks should take advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati has drafted some very solid linebackers the last couple seasons and it is starting to pay off. The Bengals are also much stronger on the defensive line now. It helps that the Bengals defense has stayed much healthier so far this season too.

The Detroit Lions wide receivers are the worst in the NFL. They are now without their top two wideouts for this game due to injury also. Their star center Ragnow is also out with an injury. Jared Goff is pretty good as a game manager, but he isn't surrounded by much talent here now, and the Bengals defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here. 

Joe Mixon is still banged up for the Bengals. He'll likely play, but he isn't 100 percent healthy. Joe Burrow is a very good quarterback, but the offensive line in front of him is very weak. Burrow was knocked around last week again and I think the play calling here could be pretty conservative from the Bengals. 

The Lions defense isn't supremely talented by any means, but they have been playing really hard for Dan Campbell. This Lions defense has looked much better in recent weeks. They have allowed just 19, 24, and 19 points against the Ravens, Bears, and Vikings in their last three games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense is improved this year, but I don't think it is as good as it looks on paper. Air Force has played a schedule of very weak offenses, especially in the passing game. Air Force has gone against Lafayette (FCS), Navy, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Only one of those teams has an above average passing attack (Utah State). Utah State won at Air Force 49-45.

Boise State doesn't play at the extremely fast pace that Utah State does, but they are 37th out of 130 in pace of play, so the Broncos do play pretty fast. Boise State is much better in the passing game than the running game. Boise State is 39th in the country in passing play success rate. 

In the last 4 meetings between these two teams Boise State has scored 44. 48, 30, and 49 points by themselves. I don't think they'll put up a huge number here, but I do think they can move the ball through the air and score here.

On the other side, Air Force is excellent in the running game. They are averaging 5.13 yards per carry on the season. Boise State is just 91st in the country in yards per carry allowed (4.43). So far this year, Boise State has allowed only 10 touchdowns on 23 trips into the red zone. That will regress to the mean. Boise State's defense can't keep bending without breaking all the time. Air Force has been very efficient in the red zone thanks to their triple option attack.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks play at a very slow pace. South Carolina ranks 109th in pace of play. The Gamecocks are a run first team as well. They have run the ball on more than 55% of their offensive plays this season. 

Vanderbilt is a weak team overall. The Commodores are even worse offensively than on defense. Vanderbilt ranks 127th in success rate on offense. They usually rely on the pass, but South Carolina's strongest unit is their secondary. It would be a surprise to see Vanderbilt have much success at all on offense in this game.

South Carolina is likely to be happy to salt the game away by running the football and using up a lot of clock. 

There is a bit of wind and a slight chance of showers here that would just be a bonus as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks second best in the country in nearly every major category. Only the Georgia Bulldogs defense has been better. Iowa has only allowed 4.02 yards per play on the year despite playing a top 10 strength of schedule so far. The Hawkeyes have been stingy against the run all year and Purdue is averaging 1.92 yards per carry in the Big Ten so far this year. Purdue has to do it through the air and this Hawkeyes defense is elite. I don't think Purdue will get many scoring chances.

Iowa's offense hasn't been very good this year. Spencer Petras is inconsistent and the Hawkeyes have relied on short fields for many of their scores. Iowa ranks 121st in yards per play in the country. Purdue ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive success rate. This Boilermakers defense has been very good so far this season.

The weather at kickoff time here will be windy with gusts of 20 mph. The winds will slow down through the game, but it should make it harder for the passing games to work.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls host the Ohio Bobcats in a MAC contest on Saturday afternoon. 

The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Buffalo is for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. There are showers expected during this game, especially early in the game. That kind of weather really can change the game. Windy unders have been very good long term especially when there is precipitation involved as well.

Both of these teams like to run the football a lot, and in these conditions I would expect the defenses to try to load up the box to stop the run. Neither offense gets big plays all that often, so even if they move the ball down the field it should take quite a bit of time. 

If the two offenses are as one dimensional as I expect with the conditions like this, it makes the under a much more attractive wager.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Giants rank 8th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The offensive line has been far better than expected. Daniel Jones has played pretty well this year as well. Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph are great in the passing game in the middle of the field and Dallas is weak when it comes to defending tight ends in the passing game.

The Giants are scoring a touchdown on only 33.33% of their trips into the red zone so far this year. That should positively regress over time, and that would mean the Giants could start piling up the points.

Dallas has an elite offense. They might be the second best offense in the NFL (Chiefs 1st) right now. Dallas is so well balanced and Dak Prescott is a great fit in this offense. Dallas is averaging 31.5 points per game, and they have played some very good defenses this year. This is the worst ranked defense they have faced yet. The Cowboys should light up the scoreboard here. 

Dallas has shown they will let the opposition score a lot when the Cowboys are playing from the lead. On a fast track here I like the chances of a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers expect to start Trey Lance in this one and George Kittle is expected to be out of the lineup. That's clearly a negative for the over, but that is more than accounted for in this number. 

San Francisco was pretty good offensively last week. They averaged 6.3 yards per play against Seattle, but had some big mistakes that cost them.

Arizona is an offensive machine right now. Kyler Murray is playing as well as anyone. The Cardinals have so many weapons all over the field and Murray is great at getting everyone involved. 

San Francisco has home run ability in the run game, and Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Trey Lance will help the run game and I think that could be tough to stop for Arizona throughout this one.

The 49ers secondary gives up too many big plays, and Arizona has been piling up the big plays this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears offense looked quite a bit better last weekend despite playing in less than ideal weather conditions. Justin Fields clearly is the quarterback you want starting if you want potential for points. He has bigger downfield passing potential, but he also can make some mistakes that give the other team a short field sometimes. 

The Las Vegas Raiders offense has been very good this year. Derek Carr has big playmakers in the passing game. The Bears defense is an average or slightly below average unit now. Akiem Hicks is out for this one and Khalil Mack is questionable. Those are key injuries. Las Vegas should have chances to put together some great drives.

Early season games in domes have been good over bets in the NFL especially at low totals. This one fits the bill.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* There will be a bunch of running the football in this game. Nebraska is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Michigan is running the ball on 71% of their plays this year. A moving clock is certainly a good thing for the under.

Michigan's running attack has been good, but they haven't played many good run defenses. I think Nebraska is underrated in the front seven on defense. The Cornhuskers have been much better than expected this year on defense. Michigan scored just 20 points against Rutgers and they averaged less than 3 yards per carry against Wisconsin a week ago. 

Nebraska's running attack has been good as well, but Michigan is likely to be in the backfield a lot here. The Cornhuskers offensive line has been overwhelmed by the best defensive lines they have faced this season. Nebraska consistently struggles in the red zone because of questionable play calling and poor decisions from Adrian Martinez.

Both teams are good teams, and I expect a hard fought contest here. Look for plenty of field goals instead of touchdowns to help as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The final score when these two played last year was Buffalo 70 and Kent State 41. Do I expect something like that again? No. I do think this one has a good chance to go over the total though.

Kent State's offensive numbers are skewed down because of the defenses they have played. None of their FBS opponents this year rank lower than 42nd in the country in yards per play allowed. Buffalo ranks 87th so this is a big step down in class. Dustin Crum and the Kent State offense should get going here. Kent State ranks 9th in the country in tempo, and they will playing uptempo the whole way here.

Buffalo's pace of play this year has really surprised me. They rank a very fast 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bulls have been more aggressive with their play calling of late. Kent State's defense is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry, and the Golden Flashes rank 130th out of 130 teams in the country in opponent passing play success rate. This Kent State defense is terrible.

This number is lower than it should be because of the opponents this offenses have played. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars offense isn't working well. Jayden De Laura looks like he has regressed and the team around him hasn't helped. The offensive line is a problem and the play calling has been questionable. Washington State ranks 104th in offensive explosiveness on the season thus far.

Oregon State's offense is good, but they move the ball slowly up the field. Nolan has been great as a game manager for the Beavers. This offensive scheme is very good, but they move slowly and don't try for big plays often. Oregon State ranks 99th in offensive explosiveness. The Washington State defense is coming off back to back strong showings in the last two weeks.

Washington State ranks 90th out of 130 in the country in pace of play. Oregon State ranks 104th in pace of play. 

The weather here looks a bit shaky as well. The wind is forecast to be sustained at about 13 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers don't know who will start at quarterback this week. Whether it is Graham Mertz or Chase Wolf though, the passing game is terrible. Wisconsin is completely reliant on the run. Strangely, this Wisconsin offensive line hasn't been good this year. The Badgers are averaging just 3.77 yards per carry which is 88th best in the country. Wisconsin always plays slowly and they are doing that again this year. 

It would be easy to think Wisconsin's defense isn't very good when you see the scores they allowed they last two weeks. That isn't true at all. The Badgers rank 1st in the country in yards per carry allowed. Overall, Wisconsin ranks 3rd in success rate allowed. This is an excellent defense. 

Illinois is reliant on running the football too. They don't have enough playmakers to throw it around and their offense is all about the run with Bielema as their coach. Illinois ranks 109th in the nation in yards per play. The Fighting Illini offense is a clear weakness. 

Illinois has 20-17, 13-9, and 24-14 games in their last three contests. The Charlotte game (24-14) says a lot since Charlotte is a very weak defense. 

I don't think either of these two will push the pace, and I expect a lot of running and solid defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Georgia has allowed one offensive touchdown in five games. That is just insane. This Georgia defense is so much better than any other defense in the country right now it is just crazy. They rank 1st in yards per play allowed. They rank 1st in success rate on defense. They rank first at preventing explosive plays. 

Auburn had a nice win at LSU last week, but LSU's defense is a weakness. Bo Nix and his magic he pulled off in Baton Rouge isn't likely to work against this staunch Georgia defense. 

The Georgia offense still has some question marks. Both quarterbacks are banged up. Bennett is likely to be the starter here, and the game plan is generally more conservative with him under center. Georgia ranks only 112th in offensive explosiveness. They also rank 117th out of 130 in pace of play.

Auburn is allowing just 2.56 yards per carry on the year, and Georgia runs the ball on 62% of their offensive plays.

This one should be a hard fought contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos both have a lot of key injuries. Glasnow is out on the offensive line for the Broncos. Risner is questionable as well and the Ravens certainly like to bring a lot of pressure.

Lamar Jackson is questionable but is expected to play for the Ravens. Baltimore star lineman Ronnie Staley is out here and this Broncos pass rush should be able to get to Jackson here. Villaneuva is also banged up on the offensive line. 

Marlon Humphrey is likely to play here and he is one of the most talented corners in the game. 

The Denver defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Broncos have certainly played a fairly easy schedule of offenses so far, but this is definitely a good defense. 

Denver's offense ranks 32nd in the NFL in pace of play. The Broncos are running the ball 4th most of any team in the NFL.

Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in pace of play. They are running the ball third most of any team in the NFL.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts were thought to have an average or slightly above average defense before the season. They rank 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. Take a look at the 3 offenses they have faced this year though: Seattle, LA Rams, and Tennessee Titans. Those are three excellent offenses who will put up big numbers on a lot of teams. Miami is without Tua here and this is a huge step down in class for the Colts defense.

Miami put up 3.1 ypp against the Bills two games ago. They put up only 4.2 ypp against a subpar Raiders defense last week. The Dolphins don't have an explosive offense in their current state.

The Dolphins do have a very good defense though. They will be up against a badly banged up Carson Wentz and a Colts offense that lacks top end skill position talent. Miami's secondary is one of the best in the NFL.

Look for a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense has looked terrible this year. Matt Ryan appears to be falling off quickly at quarterback. It obviously hurts that Julio Jones is no longer here, but Ryan's arm strength isn't even close to what it was a few years ago. 

Atlanta is 29th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. They rank 32nd in DVOA so far this season on offense. Atlanta is a mess offensively and it starts with a terrible offensive line. The Falcons have what might be the worst offensive line in football.

Washington's defensive front hasn't played nearly as well as expected so far this year, but Washington has a great chance to cause this Atlanta offensive line a lot of trouble in this game. Washington has been hearing about their underperformance on the defensive line, and I think they show up and give the Falcons a lot of trouble here.

Taylor Heinicke has had issues with bad turnovers of late. I think Washington is likely to play it safe more often with him this week hoping to keep the turnovers to a minimum. A more conservative game plan and a slower pace of play is likely.

Both offenses have a bunch of question marks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP offense is quite a bit better than they were a few years ago. UTEP is averaging 6.11 yards per play (48th best in the nation). The Miners rank 17th best in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett are very good playmakers on the outside. Cowing is averaging a stunning 23.4 yards per reception this year.

Old Dominion ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Monarchs aren't a good team. The one thing they have been able to do pretty well this year is run the football. Old Dominion ranks 28th in the nation in rushing success rate. UTEP is a mediocre run defense and the Monarchs should be able to move the ball some on the ground here.

It's rare to find a total below the key number of 49 where you have one team playing quickly and the other team being explosive on offense. I don't think this number should be this low. Sure this is a sloppy game between two teams who have been bad in recent years. Still, there are plenty of reasons to think there should be some points here. The weather looks good for this contest as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are running an air raid with Bailey Zappe and his offensive coordinator from last year at Houston Baptist. How's it looking so far? The early results have been great. The Hilltoppers are third in the nation in yards per play at 8.27. They are 4th in the nation in passing plays success rate at 55.65%. The tempo has been very fast. Western Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in tempo.

Michigan State's offense is light years better than they were last year. Walker is tremendous at running back. The Spartans are averaging 5.90 yards per carry on the year. That should be a big problem for a Western Kentucky team that is allowing 4.81 yards per carry (106th out of 130 in the country). In fact, Western Kentucky rates 125th out of 130 in the nation in defensive rushing plays success rate. The Spartans passing attack has been solid with Payton Thorne as well. They have picked up the pace significantly this season. The Spartans are 32nd out of 130 teams in the country in tempo.

Western Kentucky has thrown the ball on 65.2% of their offensive plays so far this year. They'll air it out and play fast here. Michigan State will gash Western Kentucky on the ground and mix in some successful passing plays as well.

The pace here should be very quick all the way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a way of making games ugly and low scoring. Northwestern's defense isn't quite as strong as it has been in most recent seasons, but I do think they will improve in Big Ten play as they usually do under defensive minded Pat Fitzgerald.

The Northwestern offense lost their starting running back, and against a good defensive front like Nebraska that should be a problem. Ryan Hilinski played well against Ohio last week, but Ohio is terrible defensively. This is a big step up in class against a Nebraska defense that allowed only 12 first downs last week against a solid Michigan State team.

Nebraska is fairly conservative on offense. They will run the football most of the time. I expect them to play from the lead and they have shown to get much more run heavy when playing from the lead.

The last couple years these two teams have played games that ended 13-10 and 21-13. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames haven't been quite as good offensively this year. The offensive line has been weak in pass blocking. Liberty has already allowed 14 sacks already this year. 

The Flames have also slowed their pace down drastically. A couple years ago this team was playing very quickly, but they sit 121st in the nation in tempo so far this year. They are running the football on 64% of their offensive snaps.

UAB ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers are running the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps. The Blazers are going up against a Liberty defensive front that is 20th in the nation in yards per carry allowed so far this year. The Liberty secondary is a bit weak, but their front seven defensively is very solid.

With two teams playing very slowly and running the ball a lot, we should see a lot of running clock in this game. 

Look for a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have reinvented their offense with a new offensive coordinator. They now play extremely fast. Tulane ranks 8th in the country in tempo so far this year. The Green Wave will push the pace here and try to get as many possessions as possible. 

East Carolina ranks 119th in yards per play allowed this year. PFF grades them as the 25th worst defense in the country. Tulane should get a lot of big gainers in this one. 

Tulane's defense is struggling a bit because of their faster paced offense. The Green Wave rank 95th in yards per play allowed and PFF grades them as the 20th worst defense in the country. 

East Carolina ranks 46th in the nation in tempo so they play fast as well. The Pirates have enough playmakers to get up and down the field against Tulane here.

The tempo here should be very fast and we have two bottom 25 defenses in the country.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tanner Morgan looks lost at QB. I don’t think PJ Fleck trusts him now and it is hard to blame him. Turnover worthy play on 6 percent of plays so far this year. In Minnesota’s last 3 games, Morgan has 17, 17, and 13 passes attempted. He likely won't throw it many times here. That kind of pace with a ton of running plays is going to bleed a lot of clock. They rank 129th out of 130 teams in tempo in the country, so Minnesota is playing so slowly.

Purdue’s offense ranks 87th in yards per play this year. David Bell is a superstar WR for Purdue and he is questionable for this game. Purdue averages just 2.91 ypc and they are shorthanded when it comes to weapons on offense. The Purdue defense has been impressive this year. The Boilermakers are 30th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed on defense. Minnesota isn't likely to be efficient against this group.

The Minnesota defense gave up only 1.4 yards per play against Colorado and only 3.1 yards per play against Bowling Green last week.

There are winds of 12-15 mph and a slight chance of showers in the forecast.

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. 

This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. 

San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. 

Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can.

Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season.

The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on.

This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a mess defensively so far this year, but they are much improved on offense. Austin Kendall is a transfer from Oklahoma and West Virginia and he has fit into the Skip Holtz offense perfectly this year. LA Tech has now played 3 games and the lowest scoring contest was 35-34. 

LA Tech has picked up their pace this year. They rank 33rd in tempo this season. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, so they are getting a bunch of big gainers. They are up against a defense that has allowed the 7th worst opponent QBR this year so far. The Bulldogs aren't likely to have any trouble moving the ball through the air with Kendall under center here.

North Texas always plays very fast. They rank 9th in the nation in tempo so far this season. The Mean Green haven't been able to put up too many points, but they did play a couple pretty good defenses in SMU and UAB. North Texas also has 8 trips into the red zone this year and they only have 2 TD's in those 8 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress over time.

A game with a lot of tempo and two defenses rated in the bottom 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. I think there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. 

Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front.

Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run.

A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well.

Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal.

UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary.

This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. 

Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already.

The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year.

This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the nation in tempo. Marshall is using only 20.33 seconds between plays. The Thundering Herd are also averaging 7.58 yards per play so far this year. Marshall's offense is throwing the ball on 55% of their plays and they are taking plenty of shots downfield. Grant Wells has looked very good so far this season.

Appalachian State ranks 82nd (just a bit slow) in tempo. The Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 6.60 yards per play on offense. Chase Brice has been a better fit in the offense than most expected (including myself). 

The Marshall defense looks good on paper, but they just gave up 42 points to E Carolina, who was the first decent offense they faced. Marshall has allowed only 7 red zone scores on 12 trips for opponents. Five forced turnovers in the red zone isn't sustainable out of 12 attempts. Marshall's defense is due for negative regression to the mean.

With the pace this is played at being a Marshall game and a total only in the mid 50's, I have to side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have a new faster paced offense with the new coaching staff this year. Justin Herbert is a perfect fit for this offense at the quarterback spot. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him, and the Chargers have upgraded the offensive line position a great deal. Rashawn Slater looks like a star already. The Chargers racked up 424 yards of offense against Washington last week. They go against a much worse Dallas defense in this one. 

Dallas isn't good at all on defense, and now they will be without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys secondary is a major problem area, and now they have a much weaker pass rush. 

The Chargers are expected to be without cornerback Chris Harris in this game. Justin Jones is also doubtful on the defensive line. The Chargers defense isn't a bad unit, but it is far from dominant. 

The Dallas Cowboys offense has all sorts of weapons and Dak Prescott looked good in the season opener. Dallas should be able to score and score quickly against most teams this year. Can their defense get any stops? That is a tougher question. They'll need to win shootouts more than likely.

This game is indoors and early season games between non divisional foes in a dome have been good over bets long term.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. Arizona torched Tennessee for 38 points last week. The Titans offense was a no show in that game. I think Minnesota's offense will show up more than the Titans did a week ago.

Arizona does have a very good pass rush, but the Cardinals secondary is extremely weak. They face a top 3 group of wide receivers in the NFL in this game. Dalvin Cook is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Kirk Cousins has all sorts of weapons around him.

Kyler Murray looks great this year. He is healthy and looks extremely mobile. This is a guy who is extremely tough to defend. The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins and multiple very fast wideouts to hit the home run ball with. The Vikings secondary is another questionable secondary.

The over is 55.5% in dome games in the NFL in the first two months of the season in the last six years. This is on the fast track and I expect to see some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense looked very weak against the questionable Carolina Panthers defense last week. The Jets had just 8 points going into their final drive of the game. The Panthers sat back in prevent and the Jets then went on a touchdown drive and the game finished 19-14. Even with that long TD drive at the end of the game, the Jets only finishing with 4.2 yards per play. 

The New England Patriots defense is much better than the Carolina defense. It would be very surprising if the Jets can score much here. 

On the other side, the Patriots are going to lean on the run game more this year once again, and the Jets are a pretty good run defense. I think this is the type of game where a Patriots lead and then conservative play calling and running the clock is very reasonable to expect.

New England is a well coached defense and they should bother Wilson in this game. Expect them to bring pressure after him here. 

The Jets defensive coaching staff is pretty good too, and I don't think the Patriots are anxious to hurry up and take a bunch of big risks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is way down this year. Spencer Sanders no longer has Wallace or Stoner to throw to on the outside. The Cowboys still have some good running backs, but the offensive line play has been very questionable. In fact they rank 108th in run blocking grade according to PFF. 

Boise State's running game has been terrible this year as well. The Broncos are averaging 2.24 ypc on the season. How bad is the Boise State offensive front? They rank 122nd in PFF in run blocking grade. That is behind teams like USF and UConn. 

The weather could be a factor here as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected for this game. There is also a chance for some rain. That could make the two teams more conservative on offense, and that helps the under.

Oklahoma State has somehow been amazing in the red zone (7 trips and 7 scores- including 6 TD's). That should regress to the mean. This isn't a good offense right now. Boise State has allowed 50% on third down conversions for their opponents, but I think that improves over the course of the year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense looks amazing right now. Why? They have gone up against the Lafayette Leopards and a terrible Navy offense. Navy runs the same style offense Air Force does, and they frankly aren't any good at it right now either. 

Air Force's defense may be pretty good this year, but they definitely aren't this good. I'll look to try to take advantage of the fact that their defensive numbers are skewed going into this game.

Utah State is a much improved offense with Blake Anderson as head coach and Logan Bonner at quarterback. The Aggies are playing at the 10th fastest pace in the country. They are really getting off a lot of snaps quickly. Utah State should test Air Force with their solid running game and their ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game.

On the other side, Air Force is an excellent running team. Utah State has allowed 4.28 ypc so far on the year and that was against Washington State and North Dakota. The Aggies clearly have some issues on the defensive end, and I would expect Air Force to be able to take advantage of those weaknesses.

This is an awfully low total for a game involving a team that plays as fast as Utah State. These aren't great defenses either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bo Nix has drastic home and road splits in his career. According to Sports Reference, Nix has thrown 15 TD's and 1 INT at home in his career. On the road he has 9 TD's and 10 INT's. He only has a 54% completion percentage on the road. Nix is playing at Happy Valley in front of a Whiteout crowd that will be amped up for this game. A very tough spot for an opposing quarterback.

Auburn is very likely to try to run the ball early and often with Tank Bigsby and company. They will likely get some yards, but I don't see them gashing Penn State for a bunch of big gainers here. The Nittany Lions have been tremendous on defense so far this year. They allowed only 3.8 yards per play in Madison in a win over Wisconsin.

Sean Clifford is inconsistent at quarterback for Penn State as well. Clifford is going up against an excellent secondary in Auburn. The Tigers likely have a top 5 secondary in the country. Penn State ranks 89th in the country in explosiveness on offense, so they aren't likely to be hitting many big plays here either. 

Two good defenses who do a good job denying big plays and questionable quarterbacks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. That is despite the fact that they have played in two epic blowouts against Navy and North Carolina A&T. This team just keeps their foot on the gas and scores as much as they can. 

East Carolina has played Appalachian State and South Carolina so far this year. Those two teams rank 96th and 102nd in the country in tempo. They now go up against a team with a better offense and a team that is willing to play much faster. The Pirates are likely to give up quite a few points here. 

East Carolina's offense should improve over the course of the season, and both Appalachian State and South Carolina do have solid defenses. Marshall's defense is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in recent years.

The pace of this game makes me think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen once again have one of the worst defenses in the country. UMass allowed 51 points against Pitt and 45 against Boston College. Boston College scored 45 points in that game despite their star QB (Jurkovec) going down early with an injury. 

Eastern Michigan is a good passing team. I would expect them to be able to throw the ball with ease against UMass. UMass has allowed 14 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. 

The UMass offense is improving. They put up 28 points against a pretty decent Boston College defense last week. I think they can score here against a middle of the road or worse MAC defense in Eastern Michigan. 

A total set this low with two weak defenses is a good look to the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The biggest negative of taking the under in a game between Florida State and Wake Forest is you know there will be a fast tempo from both teams. Still, a total in the 60's between two inefficient offenses makes me like the under here.

Wake Forest is averaging only 5.88 yards per play on the year (66th in the nation). They have played Old Dominion and Norfolk State. These are two awful defenses. The Demon Deacons are unlikely to be able to run on a Florida State defense that is giving up only 2.34 yards per carry on the season. They'll need to air it out. Sam Hartman is a pretty good quarterback, but Wake Forest is a short passing attack and they are unlikely to hit many big plays down the field.

Florida State's offense ranks 86th in yards per play so far this year. This is still a bad offensive line that holds this team back. The Seminoles are unlikely to fix their problems on the offensive line anytime soon. Wake Forest can bring some pressure and I think they'll have success doing so in this game.

This projects as a sloppy game between two improving defenses and two offenses who lack identity.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is very strong led by linebacker Nate Landman. Colorado gave Texas A&M's offense a really hard time last week in Boulder. This unit is especially strong in the front seven. That's what you want when you are about to go up against the Minnesota Golden Gophers offense. 

Minnesota relies heavily on the running game. They are without star running back Ibrahim now, but I still expect them to be a solid running team through the season. They lack star wide receivers now that Bateman is gone. Morgan is a solid quarterback, but they want to rely on the running game most.

The Colorado offense is still trying to find itself. The Buffaloes lack a downfield passing game and that makes things easier on the opposition. 

Both Minnesota and Colorado are running the ball on almost 70% of their offensive plays so far this season. A bunch of running the football means a lot of running clock. Minnesota ranks 123rd out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Colorado is also pretty slow at 88th. I think we see a lot of slow drives with the clock ticking away here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers host the Virginia Tech Hokies in what should be a good contest in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia Tech's performance on defense this year has really impressed me. In two games they have allowed only one play of 30 yards or more. That includes their season opener against a great North Carolina offense. The Virginia Tech front seven ranks 4th in the country in defensive havoc rate, so they are getting in the backfield early and often. West Virginia's offensive line is their biggest weakness on offense, and the Hokies should cause trouble in the backfield here.

The Virginia Tech offense hasn't impressed me very much this season. They are averaging only 5.26 yards per play (88th in the nation) despite playing a weak MTSU defense and a mediocre North Carolina defense. Braxton Burmeister hasn't proven himself as a passer. This is still a very good West Virginia defense. 

Virginia Tech runs the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. Even their successful drives will take a long time. West Virginia's offensive line issues should make it hard for them to sustain too many drives.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have some significant offensive problems. The Bears have a weak offensive line and a lack of skill position talent. Andy Dalton isn't likely to be the answer for this team. The Bears are very likely to be conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I would expect Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line to be a major problem for the Chicago offense. 

The Bears defense is still an above average unit. Stafford should do pretty well with the Rams, but I don't think they'll find moving the football easy against this solid Bears defense. 

The last 3 years these teams have played each year. The final total score was 26.6 points. None came even close to this total.

Allen Robinson is a great weapon, but Jalen Ramsey will matchup with him. The Bears should struggle to find anyone else to turn to. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two young quarterbacks up against talented and well coached defenses. I would expect to see two conservative game plans in this contest.

The Miami secondary is excellent. Mac Jones starts right from game one for the Patriots, but he isn't surrounded by great talent and Miami's secondary will be tough to beat. 

Tua Tagovailoa was good in the preseason, but his regular season performances haven't been very good. He's up against a great defensive coach here. I would expect Miami to want to run the football more than normal in this game.

Both of these defenses have been good at preventing the big play. I think that continues in this game.

The weather here calls for 15 mph winds throughout the game. That isn't massive, but it does help the under some.

Will Fuller is out for this game for Miami too, which certainly limits their vertical passing game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Arizona Cardinals offense will once again play very quickly this year. Kyler Murray wasn't very healthy down the stretch last year. He is once again healthier now and I expect big things from him. It doesn't hurt that he now has De'Andre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and AJ Green on the outside. 

The Titans pass defense is subpar, and I think Arizona is the type of team that can take advantage of that early and often. 

Speaking of vulnerable secondaries, the Cardinals pass defense is a clear weakness. Ryan Tannehill has been great in this Titans system. He now has another star in Julio Jones on the outside. AJ Brown is excellent as well. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to slow this duo down.

I think both of these teams will have a lot of success on offense. Another clear positive in this game is Jerome Boger's crew is here. Boger's crew is notorious for defensive penalties and high scoring games. In fact, the over is a whopping 114-77 in Boger's games as the crew chief (59.7% overs). 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats have a new offensive coordinator in Liem Coen. They also have a new quarterback in Will Levis. Levis looks like a significant upgrade from any QB the Wildcats played last year. Coen's system is more pass happy, and that will keep the opposition honest. In the past couple years, Kentucky could only run the ball. 

Missouri's defense is a relative weakness. The Tigers will likely struggle with the now two dimensional Kentucky offense. 

Connor Bazelak has proven to be a really nice QB for the Missouri offensive scheme. Drinkwitz is a good coach and I see Missouri continuing to improve especially on the offensive end. The Tigers have some nice weapons at the wideout spots. Kentucky has had a strong defense in recent years, but they have lost some key talent and they are no better than a mediocre SEC defense now.

The faster pace Kentucky is playing at is not factored into the totals yet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Liberty and Troy should be a fun contest on Saturday. Liberty is a great "smaller name" team with Hugh Freeze doing a great job leading this team. It helps to have Malik Willis at quarterback. Liberty has won 9 straight games ATS. 

I'm not as interested in the wager ATS here, but I do like the value on the total. These are two teams who like to run the football a lot. Liberty is great at running the ball, but the strength of the Troy defense is their defensive line. 

Liberty's weakness defensively is their secondary, but I'm not convinced Troy has the offensive scheme and players in place to take advantage of that. Both Taylor Powell and Gunnar Watson are conservative and don't take many deep shots. We see a lot of screen passes and quick slants. 

The Liberty defensive front has gotten much better in recent years against the run. I expect Troy to run the football a lot here and if they do move it down the field it will take quite a bit of time.

With a total set this high, you have to see a lot of explosive plays to reach the total. I think both teams will play slow enough and keep things in front of them that there is value to the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes go to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones this week. Iowa has dominated this series in recent history despite Iowa State having the better record and higher ranked team in many of those games. This has become quite the rivalry contest.

Iowa State has a top 3 group of linebackers in the country. The DLine is also stacked from a run stuffing standpoint. That is good against an Iowa team that is very conservative and dependent on the running game. Iowa's Petras hasn't proven himself as a quarterback yet.

The Iowa State offense is good, but they have struggled badly against this Iowa defense in the past. In two of the last four meetings, Iowa State has scored 3 points. In 3 of the last 4 they have scored 17 points or less. Iowa still has a top 10 or 12 secondary in the country. The Hawkeyes are always good against the run. 

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team in the country. There should be a lot of running clock.

The current forecast for Ames calls for 15-20 mph winds throughout this game. I like the under even without this, but it is a nice bonus if it comes to fruition.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons looked somewhat better on defense against Tennessee, but this Falcons team is still absolutely hapless on offense. Also, Bowling Green slowed their tempo down drastically in game one. Despite being far behind the Volunteers in the second half, Bowling Green averaged using 31.64 seconds between plays (very slow). 

South Alabama made a good hire in Kane Wommack. Wommack was wonderful as a defensive coordinator at Indiana, and he talked highly about the potential for this South Alabama defense. They looked great in week one against Southern Miss. Southern Miss averaged just 3.49 yards per play. Frank Gore Jr. and company couldn't get going against South Alabama.

South Alabama averaged 30.59 seconds between plays in week one, and I would expect this team to continue to play slower than an average team. They will look to run the ball often as well and that keeps the clock moving.

This one is totaled 4 points above my projected total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes lost their quarterback from last year, and the QB spot is a big question mark now. I expect Colorado to run the ball early and often this year and try to play at an extremely slow pace. They did have a big lead against N Colorado, but 77% of their offensive snaps in that game were running plays. 

Colorado's defense is led by star Nate Landman. I expect this Buffaloes defense to be improved compared to a year ago.

Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country this year. Mike Elko is an excellent defensive coordinator, and this is the most talented defense he has had at Texas A&M. They gave up only 10 points against a really good Kent State offense last week. Texas A&M is led by O'Neal at strong safety. The defensive line is full of highly recruited talent. The Aggies are going to be very hard to move the ball on this year.

Texas A&M still has question marks at quarterback, and I expect a fairly conservative game plan from the Aggies. They are talented on offense, but don't yet have a clear vision of what they will be. 

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are likely to finish the country in the top 3 in the nation in tempo. Josh Heupel's teams always play at warp speed. UCF was first in the nation in pace of play last year. Tennessee averaged only 17.81 seconds between plays last week despite blowing out Bowling Green. The Volunteeers will play with extreme tempo.

Pittsburgh has picked up their pace last year and this year. Kenny Pickett is now a veteran QB who knows this system very well. The Tennessee defense is much weaker than they have been in recent seasons. They are especially weak in the secondary. Pitt should be able to take advantage.

The Pitt defense is still a good one, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they were a couple years ago. They lost several good defensive linemen, and their top safety (Hamlin) from last year. They will give up more big plays this year.

The tempo will be extremely quick, and this is still a total set fairly low. I think it is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys averaged only 1.93 yards per carry against Missouri State in week one. PFF graded their run blocking lower than they did for any Oklahoma State game last year. It was against Missouri State! Oklahoma State lacks weapons in the passing game that they had last year. Both Stoner and Wallace are gone and their deep threats are severely lacking. 

Spencer Sanders missed last week's game because of COVID protocols and he is questionable here. Sanders still has never shown he can be great in this offense and now he is without his star receivers. The offensive line in front of him is a big question mark.

Tulsa's offense is a huge question mark. Davis Brin steps in at QB, but Tulsa lost 19-17 against UC Davis in week one. Brin has 2 INT's and no touchdown passes. Smith was very good at QB for Tulsa last year and they will miss him. 

While Tulsa's defense is down without Collins, they still have a very good defensive front and I think they'll cause problems for the Oklahoma State offensive line.

The weather here calls for very hot temperatures and 20 mph winds gusting to 30 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a new look this year. Western Kentucky is airing it out early and often. They brought in Bailey Zappe at quarterback from Houston Baptist. They also brought in Zach Kittley as their offensive coordinator. He was the OC at Houston Baptist a year ago. If that wasn't enough, they brought in Houston Baptist's top two receivers from a year ago.

Western Kentucky's offense needed a complete overhaul after an ugly year last year, and that is exactly what they got. Now, the Hilltoppers are an air raid offense built around uptempo principles. 

Army is a slow paced team that relies on running the football about 85 or 90% of the time. Western Kentucky allowed 5.91 yards per carry last week against Tennessee Martin. It's highly unlikely that they'll be able to stop this Army ground attack. The Hilltoppers defense lost a ton from their front seven a year ago. 

What about Army on defense? They are accustomed to playing against triple option and run heavy teams. They have no one in practice who can simulate what Bailey Zappe and this impressive passing attack of Western Kentucky can do.

This total has been bet down a few points to a level where I have to play the over. I think both teams have an offensive edge here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen started terribly on defense last year. They weren't even hitting in practice and it showed in their 55-3 loss to BYU in their season opener. By the end of the season, Navy had clearly improved a lot on defense. They allowed 10 against Memphis, 19 against Tulsa, and 15 against Army in their last three games a year ago. Diego Fagot is a top notch linebacker, and he will lead an improved Navy defense this year.

Marshall's defense ranked 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed last year. The Thundering Herd will once again be stellar against the run. Marshall's Jamere Edwards is a superior run stuffer. Penn State transfer Shane Simmons will help on the defensive line as well.

The Thundering Herd ranked 83rd in tempo out of 128 teams last year. Navy ranked 117th. The Midshipmen will rank in the bottom five in the country in tempo in neutral situations this year. They only push the pace if they get way down. The oddsmakers expect this game to be close and I think that is a fair assumption. 

Neither team is particularly explosive on offense, and there will be a lot of running clock.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights ranked 15th in the nation in tempo last year. Sean Gleeson put his stamp on the offense and they clearly improved. Do I think they will become a great offense this year? No. I do think they will be even better though. 

Temple's defense rated 127th out of 128 teams in the country last year in tackling grade according to PFF. The Owls missed tackles like it was their job. They ranked 124th in opponent QBR. They picked up only 13 sacks in 7 games. 

Temple's offense should be improved with Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis at the helm. He was a very highly touted QB, but was inconsistent at Georgia. A big step down in class here. Rutgers was 80th in yards per play on defense last year. Temple's offense should be better this year.

This is a fairly low total for a game with one team playing very fast. We also have two weak defenses. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers have been the single best team in the NFL when it comes to scripted plays in the first quarter on offense. The coaching staff has been putting this offense in great spots, and Aaron Rodgers and the offense have been great at executing especially early in the game. Tampa Bay has been poor on defense in the first quarter this year as well. I think Green Bay plays from ahead in this game.

Tampa Bay has been a bit conservative on offense early in games this year, but when they have been down their offense is at its best. They have gotten more aggressive in these spots and they have the best pass catching weapons in the NFL. Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay offense should be able to move the ball in this game against a mediocre Green Bay defense.

I see Tampa Bay's pass defense as a clear weakness. Drew Brees wasn't able to exploit that weakness. Aaron Rodgers should be able without too much trouble.

The Packers defense has been very quick to get into prevent defense and give up big plays to their opposition. If they do that in this game it could become a real shootout.

Did you know that non-divisional games with a temperature of 29 degrees or lower (average temperature during the game) have gone 71-31 in the last 102 contests. The cold weather without wind is not a negative for the over.

Look for plenty of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the LA Rams on Saturday. 

The LA Rams have the best defense in the NFL. This is a team that just doesn't give up big plays in the passing game. The secondary is deep and they will challenge the Packers passing game. Green Bay also is banged up on the offensive line and I see that being a problem here against an elite defensive front who can really get after the passer.

The Rams quarterback play is a major question mark. Jared Goff didn't look good at all last week. He looked like a guy who was struggling to make all the throws. He was throwing wobblers and couldn't get a spiral. His injury seems like a major problem. The cold weather has always been tough for him and I don't see it going well here.

The Rams should run it often and try to keep the clock moving. The Packers play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans have a top three offense in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill has been a great fit at quarterback here, and they have a star at running back in Derrick Henry. The wide receivers are underrated as well. There are weapons all over the field for the Titans.

Baltimore's offense started the year off playing poorly. They have really kicked it into high gear of late. While the Ravens wins late in the year did come against bad teams, it is important to note that the Titans defense is a bottom five unit in the NFL. This is one of the worst defenses the Ravens have faced all season.

There is no bad weather in the forecast here. 

Only one of the Titans last seven games has stayed under this number. 

Jerome Boger's crew is set to call this game. In Boger's crews games, the over is a whopping 114-76 (60% overs). Look for a lot of key defensive flags in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay offense has been inconsistent this year. Tampa Bay has been at their best when Tom Brady isn't facing significant pressure. The single biggest strength of this Washington team is their ability to rush the passer. Brady shouldn't be comfortable in this one.

On the Washington side, the offense is a mess. Alex Smith isn't healthy and he'll either be playing and struggling or it will be Washington backup Taylor Heinicke playing. He isn't a guy who instills any confidence. Washington will have to try to be very cautious on offense. 

Tampa Bay's defense is very strong against the run. The Bucs have given up some big plays in the passing game, but I don't think Washington is a team who can take advantage of that weakness.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Jaguars defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Chicago has really found something offensively of late. Trubisky is playing much better and Montgomery has been great out of the backfield both running the football and catching it out of the backfield. I don't see Jacksonville slowing this offense down. 

The Bears defense isn't what they were last year or even earlier this year. Chicago is banged up on the defensive side, and they have been giving up a lot more big plays.

Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and the over has hit a whopping 60% of the time in Boger's crews games in a sample size of nearly 200 games. Expect a lot of flags on the defense here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are unbeaten and they should be plenty motivated to try to keep that perfect record. Liberty has only one loss on the year. Both of these teams are really well coached, and both teams know what their strengths are on offense.

Both of these teams run the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. They also play at a very slow pace. Liberty is 97th in the nation in pace of play. Coastal Carolina is 119th in the nation in pace of play. We should see a lot of running the football and moving clock in this one. 

This is a high total for two teams who are conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I also expect both teams to be plenty motivated and that should help. I never want to take an under in bowl season in a game where I question the motivation of the teams. 

Whichever team gets the lead here will try to run the ball consistently and slow the game down in a big way in the second half.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank fourth in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo wants to run the football early and often. The Bulls are first in the nation in yards per carry, but they played some extremely weak run defenses in the MAC. Buffalo will still get their yards here, but they should be tougher to come by.

Marshall's offense has been exposed in a big way in their last couple games. The Thundering Herd scored 13 points in their last two games combined. Both Rice and UAB made this Marshall offense look very bad. Grant Wells put up some big numbers against really bad defenses early in the season. 

Both of these teams play slowly and they run the ball at a very high rate. There should be a lot of moving clock and slow long drives. Both defenses do a good job not giving up explosive plays.

Look for a lower scoring game here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns played in three games with very bad weather this year. Those games were played in extreme wind and that makes their offensive numbers look a little worse than they should and their defensive numbers a little better than they should. The fact is in a game played in decent weather conditions, the Browns haven't had a game finish with a score lower than 44 points all season.

I admit that the Giants are a lower scoring team, and they may well have Colt McCoy at quarterback here. Still, this Browns defense has been really weak against the run, and I think the Giants should be able to run the ball in this one. 

The Browns rushing attack is one of the best in the NFL. Also, the Giants are going to be without star corner James Bradberry in this one. The Browns do have big play receivers on the outside. Baker Mayfield is inconsistent, but he should be able to hit some big plays here.

This is an awfully low total for today's NFL. I view the Browns as an over team, so I'll take the low over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Arizona State put up 70 points which makes this look like a questionable selection, but Arizona just handed the Sun Devils that game last week. I don't think Arizona State's offense is bad, but they certainly aren't as good as they looked last week. 

Oregon State likes to run the football a lot, and I think they will try to establish the run in this game. 

Arizona State is a slower paced team and they are fairly conservative on offense as well. The Sun Devils defense has shown to be a high quality unit so far this year.

The weather here makes me play the under. There is a 90% chance of rain with winds of 15-17 mph expected throughout this game. It is expected to be quite a bit of rain. The combination of rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous in every way this year. Green Bay is much healthier on the offensive side of the football than the average NFL team right now. 

Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The Packers have faced a lot of tough defenses too. The Packers are balanced on offense, which allows them to be very good in the red zone as well.

Carolina's defense has given up a lot of big plays this year. The Panthers secondary is a big problem, and Aaron Rodgers and this group of receivers should take advantage of this unit. 

On the other side, the Packers defense has been middle of the road this year. Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina offense have continued to be pretty good this year. Green Bay should have a lead in this game as well, and when the Packers get a lead in the second half they are quick to play a prevent defense. This has allowed a lot of opponents to put up points in the fourth quarter. A good example of this was their win over the Bears a couple weeks ago.

Look for a high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Two explosive offenses face off on Friday night in southern California. Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and this Oregon defense has been a big disappointment this year. Oregon has allowed 5.73 YPP on the season, and this may be the most talented offense they have faced yet.

Oregon's offense has been better than expected this year. The Ducks rank 9th in YPP in the nation on offense. They have 30 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games. They have a ton of speed in the backfield.

Conditions look perfect for this game, and I see both offenses with clear advantages. This should be a close game that turns into a shootout. 

Take the over. 

*This line varies significantly from book to book- I would rate this a 4 star play up to 64 and 3 star at anything higher than that.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks offense has really come back down to earth in recent weeks. After last week's loss at home against the Giants, Pete Carroll said the Seahawks need to run the football a lot more and get back to giving the ball to Chris Carson a lot more. I don't understand that strategy, especially against the Jets.

New York is third in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. If the Seahawks want to run the ball consistently here and play as slow as they have been playing in recent weeks, I think that gives a lot more value to the under.

The Jets offense is averaging 5.0 YPP at home and only 4.4 YPP on the road. The Seahawks defense is clearly much better with Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap on the field. Adams plays against his old team here and he should be ready to go. 

The weather report calls for rain here and that could lead to an even more conservative game plan from each team. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Titans and Jaguars meet up on Sunday afternoon. The Titans beat the Jaguars 33-31 earlier this year. The two teams had 6.0 and 6.5 yards per play in that game. The Jaguars have quite a few injuries on the defensive side now. I think they are a bit weaker on defense than they were in that first matchup.

Tennessee is a really good offense. They have a great running back in Henry. They also have very good wide receivers and an efficient quarterback in Tannehill. Smith is a good offensive coordinator for them also. I don't think Jacksonville can do much of anything to slow them down here.

Mike Glennon has done a decent job at quarterback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville does have some decent pieces on the outside to throw the ball to. The Titans have absolutely no pass rush, and I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball through the air pretty well here.

Both teams play much faster than the NFL average, and this total isn't all that high in today's NFL.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs offense is awful. San Diego State picked up a brutal 2.6 yards per play on offense against Colorado two weeks ago. They then followed it up by picking up only 3.4 yards per play against Colorado State. 

San Diego State has absolutely no passing game, so if they are going to move the ball it will have to be on the ground. That makes this a hard matchup for them since the strength of the BYU defense is their run defense. BYU is 16th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. 

BYU's offense is a very good unit, but San Diego State ranks first in the nation in yards per play allowed this season. The Aztecs front seven is excellent and they should be able to get some pressure on Wilson here. The Cougars will score their points here, but they are moving slowly and it should take some time. 

I see both defenses forcing some field goals here, and with two teams who play slowly and do run the football quite a bit, I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Buffalo likes to run the ball early and often. The Bulls play at a very slow pace. Akron has slowed their pace to a crawl this year as well. This is a very high total for a game being played at this kind of a pace with both teams running the football.

The weather here looks very questionable. I don't see Akron contributing many points at all here. This is an awfully high total for one team to get nearly all the points in a game that projects as a slow paced game with a lot of running. 

The weather here doesn't look very good either. I see value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots should come up with a good defensive scheme to face Jared Goff and the Rams here. They certainly did a couple years ago in the Super Bowl. Jared Goff can look great one game and very questionable the next game. 

The New England offense is being very conservative on offense right now. The Patriots run the ball a bunch. The Rams are allowing 3.91 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to do a good job stopping the run here. I don't trust Cam Newton to be able to do much through the air against this elite secondary either.

The Rams defense ranks number one in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall. 

Both of these teams have played 8 of their 12 games so far this year under this total. 

Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Thursday night.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks defense is much improved with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams. Seattle has allowed 5.8 yards per play on the year, but only 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. They have actually played two good offenses in those last three games too (Arizona and the LA Rams). 

Seattle has been far more conservative with their play calling in recent weeks. Pete Carroll has said he wants to reduce the amount of hits Russell Wilson takes. This sets up as a game where the Seahawks can salt away the win by running the football and using up the clock.

Colt McCoy is expected to start here, and I think he is a big downgrade from Daniel Jones. McCoy doesn't throw the ball down the field as much, and he isn't able to use his legs the way Jones can. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals offense is a mess without Joe Burrow. The offensive line is the worst in the NFL. Brandon Allen is the starting quarterback here and he doesn't even know the system much at all. Their only touchdown last week was a special teams touchdown and that was against an average at best Giants defense. The Dolphins are an above average secondary. The Bengals are banged up in the running game, and it is hard to see them scoring much at all.

With Miami heading into a big game against KC the next week it is easy to see the Dolphins just grabbing a lead here and coasting and being happy to salt this one away and play with a slow tempo. Tua is the likely starter at QB here and that means a more conservative game plan.

Look for a low scoring game all the way around here. I think this could stay in the mid 30's or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans offense will look a lot different without Will Fuller on the outside stretching the field. Deshaun Watson is an excellent quarterback, but his numbers without Fuller are far worse in his career than his numbers with Fuller on the field. This will be the first time he has been without Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins (now at Arizona).

Houston has put up a lot of points of late, but they haven't been up against a good defense in a long time. In fact, the last solid defense they played was the Steelers back in September. 

Indianapolis is expected to be without star lineman Anthony Castonzo. That will make Phillip Rivers a little less comfortable in the pocket. The Colts prefer to play it safe offensively and move at a slower tempo.

Divisional games late in the season have been good under bets, and this one fits that system. 

I see both offenses as a bit overvalued with their recent high scoring games against bad defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense at home. Kirk Cousins is playing really well and Adam Thielen will be back in the lineup here. Justin Jefferson is a great second option. The Jaguars secondary is probably the worst in the NFL. I expect Cousins and the Vikings receivers to have a big day here. 

Dalvin Cook may be a bit banged up. Even if Cook misses time here, the Vikings offensive line is good in run blocking, and the Vikings have a good group of backup running backs. 

I think Sean Glennon is a step up from Jake Luton, and I liked what I saw from him last week. With the Jaguars offense getting a little bit healthier, I think they put up some points in this one. 

Minnesota ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

This game is played in a dome. We have two very weak defenses and an average total in today's NFL.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I see the Cleveland Browns as an over team right now. They had three really bad weather games which skewed their stats significantly. This is an above average offense with a strong offensive line and two very good running backs. It is also a defense that is clearly below average, especially without Denzel Ward in the secondary. 

The Tennessee Titans have been an amazing over bet with Ryan Tannehill under center. How good? The over is 20-4 in the Titans last 24 games with Tannehill under center. Derrick Henry does a great job keeping the defenses attention, and the Titans wide receivers are underrated by many. The Titans have big play potential at all times. The Titans secondary is vulnerable without Adoree Jackson. 

Both of these teams have 44 plays of 20 yards or more, which is tied for 9th in the NFL. 

The weather looks good for this one, and I expect both teams to put up quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are a strong defensive team. West Virginia is very good on the defensive end as well.

West Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a weak schedule, but this is a very good defense who should be able to at least slow down Brock Purdy and the Cyclones offense. 

West Virginia's offense hasn't been very good overall, and they have been very weak away from home. Iowa State's front seven should be able to shut down the running game and put pressure on the quarterback here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons meet the Akron Zips in what should be a really bad game. These two teams are the worst two teams in the MAC, and they are two of the bottom five teams in the country overall.

The last two seasons when these two teams met the final score was 35-6 and 21-6. The two teams combined for a pathetic 376 yards of total offense last year. 

Akron is playing at a much slower pace this year. They have decided that they have to do their best to play keep away and hide their really bad defense. The Zips offense hasn't been able to get many big plays at all this year.

Bowling Green's quarterback play has been awful. The Falcons have the run the football, and that means a running clock a bunch of the time.

I don't want to watch this game and neither should you, but I do think the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have played one game that finished higher than this total, and that was against Arkansas State. Arkansas State is the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have a great offense and a terrible defense. 

Troy has been really bad offensively the last few weeks. Their offensive line is a big problem. The Trojans have scored 13, 17, and 10 points in their last three games. 

This total has been bet up to a point where the under has value. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats prefer to play at an extremely slow pace. Kansas State also runs the ball on 59% of their snaps on offense. 

Texas is much improved on defense this year. They rank 29th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Longhorns are likely to load up the box and dare Kansas State to beat them through the air here. 

Kansas State's defense has been much better at home so far this year. They should be able to slow down a Texas offense that is very inconsistent. 

I had this one a few points lower than the total here. I think this is a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd host the Rice Owls in a Conference USA matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Last year when these two teams met, the final score was Marshall 20 and Rice 7. Marshall does have a better offense this year, but they are a run heavy team that plays slowly. The Thundering Herd rank 100th in the nation in tempo. Rice is even slower at 113th. 

Both of these teams run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays, which should mean a lot of running clock in this game. 

Rice just played a 27-17 game against North Texas, who has some of the highest scoring games in the country on average. They also played a 30-6 game against Southern Miss.

Marshall won 17-7 over App State and 20-9 over FLA Atlantic. 

There is a chance of rain during this game (it will mainly rain before the game and will create a wet field), and there is a little bit of wind. This could make the teams even more conservative.

Look for a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank second in the nation in tempo. They also have a terrible defense. North Texas just allowed Sincere McCormick from UTSA to set a new school record for rushing yards last week. They gave up 49 points to a middle of the UTSA offense.

North Texas has been very good at getting explosive plays on offense. The Mean Green already have 29 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They face a LA Tech defense that is no better than league average.

I feel like LA Tech's scores have been depressed a bit by the teams they have played so far this year. North Texas is the best over team in Conference USA.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins are expected to have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback here. Even if Tua were the starter here, I think this is a fair price on the total. With Fitzpatrick, I think this is a very solid price on the over.

The Jets defense is looking worse by the week. It would be a surprise if the Dolphins offense weren't able to put up quite a few points in this one.

On the other side, with a healthy group of wide receivers, the Jets offense has looked much better the last couple weeks. Sam Darnold is back here and he is an upgrade from Joe Flacco.

The weather looks good for this one, and in today's NFL if there isn't a weather issue this is a very low posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have become an over machine of late. Six of their last seven games have gotten to 57 points or higher. The Chargers aren't just getting over the total, they have been clearing it easily. Without Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram here, the Chargers are without two of their best defensive players. 

Buffalo's defense has been a big disappointment this year. The Chargers have been able to get Keenan Allen going in a big way of late, and Buffalo has struggled with slot receivers in coverage. Allen should have a big game here. 

There is some wind in the forecast here (14 mph on average). That is factored into the total though, and I think both passing attacks have the edge vs. the opposing secondary. 

If it isn't broke, well you know. I see both of these teams as over teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack have only 9 touchdowns in 22 trips into the red zone. Nevada's offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone. Carson Strong is a really good fit in the air raid offense. They also have an elite receiver in Romeo Doubs. 

Nevada put up 26 points against a very good San Diego State defense last weekend. The Wolf Pack gained 374 yards in that game. In a normal game that isn't all that impressive, but San Diego State ranks 2nd in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Hawaii ranks 22nd in the nation in pace of play. This team is throwing it less this year, but they are still playing very fast. 

Nevada's defensive numbers look very good, but who have they played that is any good at offense? They haven't played a team in the top 60 in the nation in yards per play on offense. Nevada should be susceptible to the big play again this year. 

Both of these teams should get several chances in the red zone and both are due for positive regression when they get there. 

The pace of the game here means this total is set a few points lower than it should be.

Take the over. Top Rated play. 

*Note- this has moved a little bit during the week. I would rate this a 5 star play up to 61. At 61.5 or higher this would be a 4 star rated play. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies allowed only 46 yards against Arizona in the Wildcats first 33 plays from scrimmage last week. Once Washington took a huge lead, Arizona then put up more than 300 yards in the fourth quarter when the game had been decided.

Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded coach, and he wasn't happy that the Huskies gave up a lot in the fourth quarter against Arizona. I think that helps us here this week. Washington shut down Arizona when it mattered last week, and now they have heard from their coach all week about how much they can improve. 

Utah's defense lost a lot from last year. Where the Utes will be able to be beaten this year is through the air. Washington is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year, and the Huskies have an inexperienced quarterback. Utah is still very strong in the trenches, and they should be able to slow the Washington ground game.

Utah doesn't have a strong rushing attack, but they might be able to beat some teams through the air. Washington has my highest rated secondary in the Pac 12. The Huskies are going to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks.

I see two teams who play at a very slow pace and prefer to be conservative on offense. I also see two high quality defenses.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* UTSA is playing significantly faster this season. The Roadrunners have had some lower scoring games, but that is largely because of who they have played. UTSA played a Florida Atlantic team that has had a bunch of low scoring games. They also played Army and UAB who are slow paced low scoring teams. They aren't playing a low scoring slow paced team in this one. Instead, they are playing North Texas, who plays as fast as anyone in the country.

North Texas is snapping the ball every 19.5 seconds. The Mean Green are also 11th in the nation in yards per play. UTSA has already allowed 21 plays of 30 yards or more so far this season. North Texas should get a lot of big gainers here.

UTSA ranks 46th in YPC this year, and North Texas' run defense is terrible. The Roadrunners will see their scoring opportunities throughout as well.

North Texas has had only one game fall below 70 points all season. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAC. Ball State is using only 22.9 seconds between plays. The Cardinals have good balance on offense too. They are tremendous in the running game with Caleb Huntley, but Drew Plitt and the passing game can get explosive plays as well. 

Last year when these two teams met Ball State won 52-14. Ball State ran for nearly 400 yards in that game! The Cardinals are likely to find a lot of success offensively again.

Toledo was without their starting quarterback in last year's contest, and they could never get anything going on offense. The Rockets are unlikely to have the same problem this year. Toledo already has 15 plays of 20 yards or more in three games this season. Ball State's defense has really looked bad so far this season, and they have played some of the weakest offenses in the MAC. Toledo is one of the best offenses in the MAC.

This line has moved down to the point where there is good value on the over here. The MAC is an over conference on the whole, and these are two very good offenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* How did this game go last year? SMU defeated East Carolina 59-51. Both teams had more than 630 yards in the game. It was a shootout all the way.

Why would this game be all that different? SMU is still very good in the passing game this year. The Mustangs already have 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year, which is the third most of anyone in the country. 

Both SMU and East Carolina rank in the bottom 20 teams in the country at preventing explosive plays. There should be a lot of big gainers from each side here. 

SMU provides the tempo, and I like the East Carolina offense better when they are playing from behind because Holton Ahlers seems to be able to get into a rhythm throwing it around later in the game in those situations.

The weather looks good here and I expect a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons defense is absolutely awful. The offense isn't much better. Bowling Green does like to play very fast though, and that tends to lead to value on the over in their games. The Falcons rank 34th in the nation in pace of play. 

Ohio's offense was kept off the field quite a bit by Akron in their last game. The Bobcats are averaging a solid 6.04 YPP so far this year, but it has been only 24 and 27 points for them in their first two contests. Ohio isn't quite as good offensively as they were last year, but they did put up a whopping 66 points on Bowling Green last season.

Bowling Green's running game is slightly better this year, and I think they can get some yardage on the ground here. If Bowling Green can get to 20 points here we should be able to get the over. 

I think this total is set too low because Ohio had such a low scoring game against Akron. Bowling Green is going to give up a bunch of points this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense is much more explosive this year despite losing a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. Why? A new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead is a really good offensive mind who puts his players in positions to make big plays.

Oregon already has a whopping 21 plays of 20 yards or more in only three games. The Ducks have several good running backs who put a lot of pressure on any defense, and the Oregon State run defense is a big problem because of their weak defensive interior on the line. 

Oregon has been a big disappointment defensively. The Ducks are giving up 6.32 yards per play so far this year. Their tackling needs some serious work, and the biggest problem spot is their run defense. That isn't good when going against Jefferson and the Oregon State running attack.

Oregon State is 29th in pace of play and the Beavers should be able to hit some big gainers against this Oregon defense.

Oregon will put up a bunch of points in this contest and Oregon State should put up enough as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights rank first in the nation in pace of play. They are using only 19 seconds between plays on average. The USF Bulls rank 30th and they are only using 23.32 seconds between plays in conference action. This game should have a bunch of plays in it. That's always a good start for a high over.

UCF is first in the nation with 71 plays of 20 yards or more. The Knights have only played eight games, so they are really putting up the big gainers at a very high rate. USF is giving up 6.17 yards per play in AAC action so far. UCF should put up a very big number here. It would be surprise if they don't at least get into the upper 40's. 

USF has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and there are two great offensive minds on this staff in Jeff Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. The UCF defense has been a big weakness this year, and I do think USF will get their yards and scoring opportunities here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns are much better defensively this season. Texas ranks 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. The defensive coaching staff is much better this year, and they have done a good job being aggressive on this side of the football. 

Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. They should be able to make Texas one dimensional on offense. Iowa State already has 22 sacks this year, and the Texas offensive line is a weakness.

Iowa State is playing at an extremely slow pace to have a game totaled this high. The game could certainly get to the total if there are a bunch of big plays or turnovers for scores, but in a normal game state I don't see this one getting this high.

The last 5 meetings between these two have finished at this many combined points: 24, 33, 24, 34, and 44 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense has been tremendous this year. Dalvin Cook looks like the best running back in the league. Minnesota has been very good offensively all year. They have been on another level offensively at home. How good? Minnesota is averaging a whopping 7.9 yards per play at home on the fast track so far this year. They have been above 7 yards per play in every game at home. The Cowboys weak defense is unlikely to have much success slowing them down either.

Dallas is getting healthier on the offensive line. Andy Dalton returns here. Dalton looked bad earlier this season, but he should get better blocking in front of him here. The Cowboys still have tremendous wide receivers. The Vikings secondary is still a major problem. Minnesota's defense has looked better in recent weeks, but those good performances are misleading. The Vikings slowed Green Bay because of 25 mph winds 3 games ago. A couple games ago they were able to slow the Lions offense down because Stafford got hurt in that game and Golladay didn't play. Minnesota then shut down the hapless Bears offense. The Vikings have improved some on defense, but they aren't good.

Dallas plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. The Vikings offense has been amazing at home. We're getting a total that is below average in today's NFL. The game is played in a dome.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are expected to start Jameis Winston here. Drew Brees is out with an injury. Winston is clearly one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He's also one of the best "over" quarterbacks in the NFL.

Winston is capable of a lot of throws many quarterbacks in the NFL aren't capable of. He can push it deep and really pressure a defense. At the same time, Winston is more capable of making poor decisions and throwing pick sixes than any other quarterback in the NFL. 

The Saints defense has been good of late, but Atlanta is a lot better offensively than the teams the Saints have been playing of late. Atlanta's wide receivers will put a lot of pressure on a Saints secondary that has been banged up of late. Atlanta should be able to move the ball pretty well here.

The Atlanta defense is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have weapons all over the field around the quarterback. It would be a big surprise if the Saints don't score a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have averaged 3.6 yards per play in all of their last four games. That is just woeful offense. Importantly, they played Vanderbilt last game and could only muster 14 first downs and 206 yards. 

Georgia's defense was embarrassed by Florida, and they should be ready to go for this one. Georgia is still a very good defense, and it would be a surprise if Mississippi State can do much of anything on offense here.

Georgia is in flux at quarterback. JT Daniels might get the start here. This offense is likely to be pretty conservative this week. Additionally, Mississippi State's defense has actually been very solid this year. They are 35th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Expect a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State is an under team. They are well-coached, and Klieman knows the best way for his team to stay in games and win is slow the game down and win with defense and great special teams play. 

Kansas State wants to run the ball a lot, but Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. The Wildcats aren't likely to have much success on the ground.

Iowa State has slowed their tempo down a lot this year. The Cyclones rank 106th in the nation in tempo. I don't think they'll be too aggressive on offense either.

Look for both defenses to have the upper hand here. The early forecast calls for a chance of rain and some wind here too. That would just be a bonus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal picked up 2.8 yards per play on UCLA in their season opener. When I first saw that number I had to do a double take. UCLA's defense is very weak, and Cal could do nothing against them. 

Oregon State's defense fought hard against Washington on Saturday night. The Beavers aren't a great defense by any means, but with a total set this high against Cal, I think they can slow them down plenty to keep this under.

The Oregon State offense is pretty good on the ground, but the passing attack is a real problem right now. Their quarterback has shown no signs of being comfortable in this offense. Cal's defensive front is a strong one.

I like the line value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't even close. North Texas is going to snap the ball as quickly as they possibly can. The Mean Green have yet to play a game this year that didn't have a final total of at least 70 points.

Rice is definitely a slower paced team, and the Owls will look to run the ball quite a bit here. Still, the Owls should break some big plays against a woeful North Texas defense. Additionally, North Texas will break some explosive plays against a questionable Rice run defense here as well.

This total has been bet down to the point I have to back the over. A total in the low 60's with one team (North Texas) snapping the ball every 19 seconds is an automatic look to the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas is playing at a really fast pace of late. Arkansas is using only 22.62 seconds between snaps. The Razorbacks have been inconsistent on offense, but LSU has been awful defensively all season.

LSU is giving up a whopping 7.21 yards per play so far this year. The Tigers have allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games! Arkansas will get a lot of plays here, and they should break some big gainers.

LSU's offense is still very good. LSU is 38th in the nation in yards per play on offense, and they have been up against a few good defenses already this year. 

I see this as a back and forth game.

Take the over.