Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
816 Western Kentucky at Marshall Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday. PLAY MARSHALL |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
302 Los Angeles at Green Bay This Rams defense is legit, holding 8 of 17 opponents this year to it’s three lowest yardage totals on the season. And it’s getting better as the year has gone on. In fact, 4 of the last 5 opponents have been held to bottom three seasonal outputs. The only team to have any yardage success, was the Jets in that shocking 17 point underdog upset. The Rams are starting a quarterback with a broken thumb on his throwing hand in a cold weather game. Not the ideal situation for a warm weather visitor. With offenses struggling we expect this to be a tightly fought low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-15-21 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -5 | Top | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
852 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-14-21 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -132 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
71 Anaheim at Las Vegas The Ducks don’t have a great deal of offense, but their youth is very exciting. This is a team that will get better as the year goes on, and will always play full out. Vegas is expected to contend out west, but we do have some worries early on with our home town team. This was by far the strongest home arena in the NHL in the past. The lack of fans along with the league’s Covid rules will lessen that advantage more than any other team. Vegas is always a destination for visiting teams, but these players won’t be going out partying like in the past. The Golden Knights also will be without two major pieces of the puzzle this season because of cap issues. While Petrangelo is a great signing, not sure this team is better without Schmitty and Patches. PLAY ANAHEIM +1 1/2 |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
718 Stanford at Utah The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back. Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right. PLAY UTAH |
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01-12-21 | Jazz v. Cavs UNDER 207 | Top | 117-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
536 Utah at Cleveland Jazz in their sixth of seven on the road with the finale in Washington tomorrow. Don’t think Utah wants to push the pace with tired legs, especially with another game tomorrow. This team has had two back to backs already this season, scoring just 95 and 96 points on the front end of those occurrences. Cleveland has now played eight straight games scoring less than the century mark. This team simply doesn’t have any scoring with virtually half the squad sitting on the sidelines. Worked for us yesterday, let’s play it again. PLAY UNDER |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
499 Ohio State & Alabama We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here. PLAY OVER |
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01-11-21 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
518 Memphis at Cleveland Since the Ja Morant injury the Grizzlies are averaging just 100 points per game. These two played just a few days ago and the Cavaliers pulled out a 94-90 victory. Since that time the Cavs have gotten Isaac Okoro back, their best overall defender. Cleveland has failed to reach 100 points in seven straight games. Sexton is day to day while virtually half the team is currently out. The only way either of these teams have success is on the defensive end of the court. PLAY UNDER |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
550 Oklahoma City at New York The Thunder enter play with a 3-4 mark, but have been very fortunate to have that number of wins. They are 3rd in the NBA in wins over expectation, as their numbers show it should have only 1.9 victories. This is a team that ranks 30th in points per possession, and 30th in offensive rebounding percentage. New York ranks 3rd defensively in points per possession, and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. Austin Rivers ranks in the 100th percentile in points per shot attempt, while Julius Randle is in the 98th percentile in bigs with a 30.2% assist rate. Can’t see the Thunder having any success offensively here as the Knicks continue to be underrated in the betting markets. PLAY NEW YORK |
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01-07-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -9 | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
740 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-06-21 | Virginia Tech +5 v. Louisville | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
673 Virginia Tech at Louisville Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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01-04-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Magic | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
575 Cleveland at Orlando The Magic really want to run this year, but they haven’t done it with a whole lot of success thus far. Orlando will have troubles tonight against a Cavs team that has had success in the open court as well as in the half court game. We really expect the big men for Cleveland to have a big night as the Orlando front court players are weak defensively, especially the All-Star center who is more worried about offense. Cleveland is the more rounded team here and we expect this club to win at least one of these two games outright. The points are a nice bonus. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-04-21 | Southern Illinois +10.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
867 Southern Illinois at Drake Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis. Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible. Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane. PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-03-21 | Jets +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 23 m | Show |
115 NY Jets at New England Now that tanking for Trevor is over in New York, the Jets have played really good ball the last two weeks. It also helps that New York just played a Browns team without its top four receivers. Because the New England passing game downfield has been non-existent this season. The Patriots have a short week of preparation, from playing Monday night. This is also a quick revenge game for the Jets who should have beaten the Pats on national television just a few weeks ago. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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01-02-21 | Stanford v. Oregon -5.5 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
327 Cincinnati & Georgia Plenty of reasons to back the Bearcats here. This is an undefeated team with a chance to play a top team from the SEC. Cincinnati feels they were slighted by the selection committee and have something to prove. Georgia on the other hand did not have dreams before the season to be playing in this game. Their expectations were much higher. Throw in the fact that many of the top players for the Bulldogs are sitting out in preparation for the draft. And we have a team likely not fully focused on the contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-31-20 | Michigan -1 v. Maryland | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
737 Michigan at Maryland The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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12-29-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -3 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
560 New York at Cleveland Coming into the season both these teams were rated almost exactly the same. The Knicks enter play at 1-2 while the surprising Cavaliers are undefeated at 3-0. We’ve watched all three Cleveland games, and this team is much better than the preseason expectations. The Cavs lead the league in spread difference at +16.7, and are 2nd in the NBA in defense. Cleveland now has two really good big men that have kept the opposition out of the paint. The offense is being led by two of the best young players at the guard spot in Garland and Sexton. Neither were very good defensively last year, but with the new style of play they have picked up the defense very well. In our opinion Garland was so bad last year he could be a nice comeback player of the year candidate. Kevin Love is out from 3-4 weeks, which actually helps the youngsters keep the ball moving. Cleveland has been excellent on assisted baskets in this young season. Number is cheap once again, as the Cavaliers are much improved. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-28-20 | Missouri State +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points. PLAY MISSOURI STATE |
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12-27-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
530 Philadelphia at Cleveland Second game of a back to back for Joel Embiid after playing over 30 minutes last night at New York. Teams get up to play in Madison Square Garden, and a likely letdown here traveling to Cleveland is likely. The Cavs on the other hand have played very well to open the season. The offense is flowing better than anyone projected, and the defense is much better with the additions up front. This is a team with confidence right now, and the line is simply too high to not back the surprising Cavs at home. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans -7.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
464 Cincinnati at Houston The Bengals just played their Super Bowl on Monday night with a third string quarterback against their hated rival. Keep in mind even in that game how bad this offense has been. Now it’s taking on a Houston scoring unit that has moved the ball well all season. While Monday was the big game for the Bengals, this game means more for the disappointing Texans who actually entered the season with high expectations. Houston lets out some frustrations here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
283 Liberty & Coastal Carolina in Orlando Short and sweet. Our numbers have this as a four point advantage with the favorite. A one point loss cost Liberty its own undefeated season. And because of the national press Coastal has gotten, this line is inflated. Liberty has the ability to run the football extremely well and keep the opposition at bay. This game goes down to the final possession. PLAY LIBERTY |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
752 Wisconsin at Michigan State The Badgers have been a fan favorite this year, coming in with a 7-1 record. The only loss coming at Marquette, the lone road game on the schedule. Wisconsin put up great scoring numbers in non-conference play, but had just 65 on the road at Marquette, and 67 of the 120 scored vs Nebraska in the first conference game of the season. Michigan State sits at 6-1, but 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to an improved Northwestern on the road Sunday. With road games on deck against Minnesota and Nebraska, this is a very important game for the Spartans. Teams in conference play know all about what you are trying to run offensively, which is why unders are preferred early in conference play. With the importance of this game, along with the pace rating of 324 for the Badgers, we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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12-23-20 | Hornets -2 v. Cavs | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
551 Charlotte at Cleveland The Cavaliers will have a tough time scoring tonight without Kevin Love and its key sixth man. Colin Sexton is coming off an ankle injury in the final preseason game, so he likely won’t be 100%. Charlotte addition Gordon Hayward is expected to play after coming back from a broken finger. The addition of LaMelo Ball should make this team a step better than a season ago. With little to no home court advantage we prefer the team on the rise. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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12-22-20 | North Carolina -1 v. NC State | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
673 North Carolina at NC State The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
367 San Francisco at Dallas Late smart money has been backing the Niners this morning. We agree with the line move, good time to bet against a Cowboys team just playing out the season. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
232 Oklahoma & Iowa State in Arlington Since Matt Campbell has come to Ames the Cyclones have fared well against the Sooners. Earlier this year Iowa State won 37-30, as a 7.5 point underdog. Last year as a 14.5 point underdog they lost by a single point. In 2018 Iowa State was an 18.5 point underdog and only lost by 10. In 2017 the Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 as a whopping 31 point underdog. In 2016 Iowa State lost by 10 while getting 20.5 points. That’s a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by 85 combined points. When looking at Phil Steele’s average game grades the Sooners should only be a 2.7 point favorite. Under Matt Campbell the Cyclones are 18-8 ATS as an underdog. Give us the better coached team catching points in a series they have dominated ATS. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
130 Boise State at Wyoming The Broncos have dominated this series winning 13 of 14 meetings. But last years game went to overtime, and this line is simply too high. Tough to back a road favorite who is being outgained 4.6 yards per carry to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. Despite the 4-1 record Boise State has given up seven first downs more than they have obtained. This is a big play offense that is taking on a stop unit that allows just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming the past four games have permitted just 92, 158, 255 and 110 yards through the air. This is also just the second home game of the season for the Cowboys. The last five seasons Wyoming is 21-6 straight up at War Memorial Stadium. A win here extends the Cowboys non-losing seasons streak to five years, that’s important in these trying times. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State -14.5 | Top | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 117 h 45 m | Show |
392 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartan running attack has been pathetic all season averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Only once has this team broken the 4 ypc barrier, and that was 4.1 ypc against Northwestern. The passing game was adequate the first two games but since then this team has thrown for 180, 167, 131 and 227 yards. In those last four games the Spartans have totaled 48 total points, just 12 per game. Now it takes on a rejuvenated Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions lost the turnover battle in each of its first five games. Tough to win and cover when you can’t hold on to the football. But the last two games turnovers were even and Penn State won both contests by a combined score of 50-24. On the season the Nittany Lions have a whopping +87 first down advantage when compared to the Spartans. This team made every mistake imaginable early, but the talent is now shining through. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-10-20 | UMKC +18 v. Minnesota | Top | 61-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
855 UMKC at Minnesota Kansas City enters play at 2-2 on the season and this is a major step up in class for the Roos. But this team is well rested having not played since November 30th, and is very slow paced. Ranking 309th in adjusted tempo, which is big when taking on a team as a double digit underdog. Minnesota enters with a perfect 5-0 record, but other than the 30 point opening night win over Green Bay, this team hasn’t looked overly impressive. The last three games were home wins over Boston College in overtime, a nine point victory over North Dakota, and a three point win hosting Loyola Marymount. This is a huge sandwich game after the overtime win over BC on Tuesday, and a huge conference matchup with Illinois next Tuesday. This really could be the toughest scheduling spot of the season for the Golden Gophers. PLAY UMKC |
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12-09-20 | Southern Utah -3.5 v. Utah Valley | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
637 Southern Utah at Utah Valley The Thunderbirds are flying high off back to back wins over a good Montana squad. Todd Simon and Southern Utah are off back to back 17 win seasons, and look improved again with a 3-1 start to the season. This despite allowing 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc. This is a veteran team with nine upperclassmen. Utah Valley is projected to be slightly higher in the standings than Chicago State. That should tell you all you need to know about the Wolverines. This club returns zero starters from a team that won just 11 games a season ago. They only have one senior on the roster, as this is obviously a young group. They were able to beat two non-division one programs, but lost to BYU by 22. With a 2-1 record this will be the last time we see the Wolverines over .500 this season. They rank 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting just 37.2% from 2 point range. Clear class difference here. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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12-09-20 | Eastern Illinois -3.5 v. Evansville | Top | 65-68 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
623 Eastern Illinois at Evansville The Panthers started the year with losses to big boys Wisconsin, Marquette and Dayton, but won the last two when stepping down in class. Eastern won 17 games a year ago under Jay Spoonhour, and the schedule gets easier from here on out. The Panthers have an amazing seven seniors on the roster, with just two underclassmen. Evansville was winless in the Missouri Valley Conference last year, and brings back four starters. Is that good or bad? So far, bad would be your answer, as the club has dropped three straight to start the season. Coming off a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Tennessee Martin, we simply can’t see this club fully focused here. The goal from Todd Lickliter was to improve the defense, but the club currently ranks 273rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give us the more talented senior laden Panthers. PLAY EASTERN ILLINOIS |
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12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
LA Rams at Arizona The Rams have dominated this series, as Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals. Wins by 33, 16, 22, 27 and 7 points. The key to the Rams offensive success is keeping Goff clean, and the Cardinals don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Even less because of the Cardinals defensive injury situation. Add in the fact that Murray’s go to receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out, and we see a cheap number for Los Angeles. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-05-20 | Rider v. Syracuse -22.5 | Top | 52-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
656 Rider at Syracuse The Broncs won 18 games last year but have been devastated by graduation and transfers. In fact, the team will have all five new starters today in its first game of the season. Coach Kevin Baggett came out this week and said his team just isn’t ready to compete. Syracuse beat us earlier in the week and we were very impressed. This is a team that is known for its defense and should have little problem facing a team coming out of Covid. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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12-03-20 | Air Force -11 v. Utah State | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
325 Air Force at Utah State Huge edge for the Falcons here if you look at game grades. The lowest score of the season was 83.5 at San Jose State, while Utah State is averaging 70.1 on the season. So if Air Force matches its worst game, this line would make sense. Fortunately we expect a much better outcome for the Falcons here. Obviously Air Force wants to run the football, with a 5.8 ypc on the season. Utah State allows 5.1 ypc on the year. The Aggies have really struggled getting off the field, allowing 64 more first downs than they create. That’s not what you want to see when facing a team that runs the ball down your throat. Look for this game to be competitive early, but for the visitor to wear out the Aggies as the game progresses. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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12-03-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma OVER 157 | Top | 66-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
765 UTSA at Oklahoma The Roadrunners have an excellent backcourt which is willing to run with the Sooners. Adjusted tempo ranking 24th, Assist Rate of 15th and a good free-throw shooting squad ranking 8th in the country. Steve Henson is a Lon Kruger former assistant. Oklahoma is tipping off its season here before stepping up in class against TCU and Xavier. With three sophomores and two freshmen on the team we can see the coaching staff letting the squad play a bit more street ball here. Roll out the ball and see what you have if you will. Should be a fun atmosphere in this one. PLAY OVER |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut -1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
751 Connecticut & USC Major step up game for the Huskies who have faced just Central Connecticut and Hartford. That said, we really feel the elite Husky guards should dominate this contest. UConn enters this game ranked 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. USC is big underneath which is the strength of the team, but UConn has enough height to keep the Trojans off the boards. USC is coming off a blowout victory over BYU, an impressive win. But the Cougars simply don’t have the athleticism that the Huskies have. Off a 3-0 start and the hype from the BYU victory, USC comes into this contest a bit overrated. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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11-29-20 | Houston Baptist v. Arizona State -34.5 | Top | 77-100 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
307102 Houston Baptist at Arizona State The Huskies went 4-25 last year and 0-9 when not playing a league participant. They are expected to once again bring up the rear of the Southland Conference. This is a team that lacks talent and depth, two traits that don’t work against this fast paced and talented Sun Devils squad. Arizona State is taking a huge step down in class after facing Rhode Island and Villanova. Off a loss in which it scored just 74 points, we can see this team continuing to score at win regardless of the lead. Lay it in a clear talent and depth mismatch. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
257 Cleveland at Jacksonville Browns stats have been heavily influenced by bad weather games this season. Now playing in Florida in a game not expected to be heat related, we can see both these offenses having success. Both teams have major holes defensively in this game. Jacksonville is extremely thin in the defensive backfield. Cleveland on the other hand will be playing without its best two defenders, likely ProBowl talent. The line has risen this week but we still find plenty of value. PLAY OVER |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
474 LA Rams at Tampa Bay This is a tough matchup for the Rams defense. While the numbers say this stop unit is elite, we look a bit deeper. The Rams haven’t played an offense with this many different weapons. Tampa Bay uses offensive schemes that the Rams struggle with. Offensively we all know how Goff struggles under pressure and on the road. Tampa Bay does a great job of getting pressure. Better than just about anyone on the Rams schedule. While we know the strength of this defense in rushing the QB from the inside, which is a problem for Brady. We have much more concerns about Goff and the LA offense. In what could turn into a lower scoring game, we back the MNF favorite. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 162 h 49 m | Show |
452 Philadelphia at Cleveland Very surprised by the current line on this game as the Eagles continue to underperform. The only Philadelphia wins this season have come against a banged up 49ers team, the NY Giants and Dallas. Against the AFC Central the Eagles tied the Bengals and lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Carson Wentz has struggled in the passing game all year, and Cleveland has limited 3 of the last 4 opponents to 153, 148 and 101 yards through the air. Cleveland has the much better run game and they take much better care of the football. The Browns loses this year have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Oakland. Three of the top teams in the NFL. Against the NFC East they have won by 14 over Washington and 11 over Dallas. The Eagles simply don’t have the talent this year to compete on the road against a healthy Browns squad. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
312 Toledo at Eastern Michigan The Eagles have played Toledo virtually equal the past three seasons, despite playing two of those games on the road. In 2017 as a 13.5 point underdog Eastern lost by only five points. In 2018 Eastern won outright 28-26 as a 1.5 point underdog. Last year at Toledo the game went to overtime in a 37-34 loss as a 3.5 point underdog. In fact, the Eagles have covered each of the past four years. This despite the Rockets winning nine more games than the Eagles overall during that timeframe. Eastern Michigan is a tremendous underdog under Chris Creighton. Posting a 24-4-1 record when catching points the last 4+ seasons. With the Eagles coming in 0-2, we look for this to be a circled game for the host. The Rockets are only 3-9 straight up on the road as of late, including a last second loss at Western Michigan a week ago. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
275 Minnesota at Chicago It’s not been reported too much nationally, but the Vikings lead the league in passing yards per play, and overall yards per play offensively. As well as 5.46 ypp running the football which also leads the NFL. So we not only have the most proficient offense overall in yardage, but the team is equally good running and passing. Defensively the Vikings rank 30th overall in defensive yards permitted per game. The Bears have reassigned the play calling duties, and are going to play faster offensively. That should allow this offense to compete with the Minnesota scoring unit. This is an extremely low total considering league average right now is around 51 points. PLAY OVER |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
179 Nevada & New Mexico in Las Vegas This game has been moved to Las Vegas because of the high cover counts in New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have looked impressive out of the gate with Impressive wins over Wyoming, UNLV and Utah State. They outgained the opposition in those contests by a total of 616 yards. The passing game has produced 420, 350 and 421 yards. Over the past five seasons Nevada has faced New Mexico three times. Covering by margins of 7 1/2, 6 and 13 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack just played in this building two weeks ago, which should be a sizable advantage. Head Coach Jay Norvell is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite. New Mexico has posted a combined record of 8-30 straight up the past three plus seasons. With this game being moved, this will be the third of five straight games away from Albuquerque. The Lobos pass defense has been horrendous thus far, allowing 891 passing yards in two games. The opposition is completing 73.1% of its passes. With Nevada QB Carson Strong coming in with a 9 to 0 TD to INT ratio, as well as an outstanding 171.7 quarterback rating. This looks like a long night for this Lobos stop unit. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-14-20 | Louisville +3 v. Virginia | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
225 Louisville at Virginia This is the rescheduled game from a week ago which was postponed because of covid. Two weeks ago the Cardinals had nine players sit out the Virginia Tech game because of the virus, but the entire team has tested negative heading into this week. The Cardinals fought hard in a 42-35 loss to the Hokies, and are really looking forward to getting back on the field. Louisville has won f of the last 5 meetings in this series, including an outright underdog victory a year ago. Despite the 2-5 record coming into this game, having an extra week to prepare should really help Scott Satterfield in his second season. There is only one team in this matchup with big play ability, and that’s the Cardinals. In seven games the offense has produced 45 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing just 31. Virginia on the other hand in six games have produced just 19 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing a whopping 44. While Louisville enters this contest off a loss, the Cavaliers pulled a major upset of North Carolina last time out. That despite allowing 443 yards through the air to the Tar Heels. In the Virginia victories this season the Cavaliers have a +5 turnover advantage. Without the turnover edge this team has yet to taste victory. With Louisville dominating recent play, off a loss, and having a huge explosive play advantage, we will back the visitor. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 136 h 50 m | Show |
142 TCU at West Virginia The Horned Frogs need to run the football to be effective. They are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The passing game has struggled all year including managing just 73 yards last week hosting Texas Tech. Unfortunately they are going up against a West Virginia defense allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are even better against the pass, holding every team to 230 yards or less. Including 6 of 7 opponents to less than 190 yards. West Virginia is undefeated at home this season. They have covered by margins of 16 1/2, 23 1/2, 6 and 17 1/2 the last four years against TCU. The Mountaineers have the more complete offense and the better defense. This is always a tough place to play, especially for TCU who have been outscored the last two visits here by a combined score of 81-20. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
164 Indiana at Michigan State The Hoosiers are now highly ranked after its blowout victory over Michigan. Now a perfect 3-0 on the young season. But when breaking down the Indiana games we see that they are being outgained per play 5.28 yards to 4.71 yards. The three teams they have beaten are a combined 2-4 straight up when not facing Indiana. When looking at turnover rates we see Indiana at +6 while Michigan State is -7. Regressing works in the favor of the home dog here. Both teams played Rutgers and Michigan. Indiana won both games with a combined yardage advantage of 199. Michigan State split with a yardage advantage of 90. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 games between these two clubs. Indiana also has a major lookahead with a trip to Ohio State on deck. We are not buying into the Hoosier hype. Take the points with the Spartans. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +7 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 137 h 25 m | Show |
377 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings including two straight in Texas, both in the underdog role. Coming into this contest 0-2 on the road this season, makes sure Neal Brown and the coaching staff will have this team ready. QB Jarret Doege has an impressive 11 to 3 TD to INT ratio, and the running game has been solid. Defensively West Virginia is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, and have 9 interceptions to 7 touchdowns allowed. Texas beat Oklahoma State a week ago, but only had a 3% chance of victory at the end of the game. In other words they were very lucky. Getting outgained 530 to 287 in yardage. The Longhorns took advantage of a +4 turnover edge. Texas has only produced one passing game of over 290 yards on the season, that was the opener against UTEP. Without having success through the air we see no way this host gets past this number. Keep in mind Texas is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite under Tom Herman. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-04-20 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -22 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
292 Bowling Green at Toledo How bad has it been for the Falcons to keep a talented quarterback? James Morgan transferred to FIU, Jarret Doege is now the starter at West Virginia, and last years QB Grant Loy is sitting the bench for Auburn. Junior Matt McDonald will be the signal caller this year after throwing eight passes the last two seasons at Boston College. The two deep chart features nine true freshmen and seven redshirt freshmen. Bowling Green had three victories a year ago. Beating FCS entrant Morgan State, Winless Akron, and a 20-7 upset win over these Rockets. Last year was the first time in over a decade the Rockets didn’t have a winning record. Toledo started the year losing to a solid Kentucky team, then reeled off four straight victories before the BG upset loss. That game completely turned around the Toledo season, so we know Jason Candle has circled this game for the hosts. The Rockets return 14 starters and have a much more veteran team than the Falcons. This should get ugly. PLAY TOLEDO |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 19 m | Show |
260 Las Vegas at Cleveland The key to slowing down this Browns offense is to put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Cleveland has beaten every team not excelling in defensive sacks per pass attempt. The two Cleveland losses were to the Steelers and Ravens. That's the 1st and 4th ranked in that defensive category. The Raiders rank 25th in the league. When facing teams not ranked in the top four, Cleveland has scored 35, 34, 49, 32 and 37 points. Lay the number with the Browns in what looks to be a big offensive game for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
125 Charlotte at Duke Big game for Will Healy and the 49ers who get the rare opportunity of taking on in-state rival Duke. QB Chris Reynolds had an excellent QB rating a year ago at 153.6, and he’s picked right back up this year. Duke has shot themselves in the foot all season when it comes to turnovers. Losing 10 of 13 fumbles and throwing 12 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. The team passer rating is only 106.68 on the year. Chase Brice, the Clemson transfer has been a major disappointment. Charlotte takes care of the football with only three turnovers on the season. Can’t see the Blue Devils getting right against this well coached veteran Charlotte team. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-31-20 | Rice +1.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
155 Rice at Southern Miss Rice showed a great deal of heart in losing to Middle Tennessee State in overtime a week ago. It was the first game action of the season for the Owls, who started slowly as expected. But after adjusting to the game speed it was clear Rice was the better team. Now after the quadruple doink field goal miss, we expect the Owls to bounce back big time on Saturday. Southern Miss is down to its third head coach this season. As Scotty Walden took a step down in our opinion to take the Austin Peay job. If your interim coach would bale in the middle of a season, what does that tell you about this job. Enough said, go Owls! PLAY RICE |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
959 LA Dodgers & Tampa Bay The last two seasons these clubs have met eight times. All eight meetings saw at least 8 runs being scored. Tampa Bay has a 121 wRC+ against lefties, and the Dodgers are an MLB leader at 126 wRC+ vs righties. League average wRC+ is 100. Both offenses are well acquainted with these starters as Kershaw and Glasnow got this series off to its start. In the first meeting 11 runs were scored. We haven’t seen any reason that all of a sudden pitching should dominate in this series. PLAY OVER |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
461 Carolina at New Orleans Who has the better offense in this game? If you said the Saints you may want to step back and look at the numbers. New Orleans ranks 14th in passing yards per play and 22nd in rushing yards per play. And it gets even worse for the Saints as they are missing key members of this offense this week. Carolina by the way comes in at 8th and 19th respectively. With the Panthers defense ranking 2nd in passing yards per play allowed at 5.94, we have a clear play on the touchdown underdog. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati +2.5 v. SMU | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
347 Cincinnati at SMU Big three weeks for the Bearcats who play the Mustangs, Memphis and Houston. Luke Fickell has done a terrific job here off back to back 11 win seasons. This defense allowed 20.6 points per game a year ago and brought back nine starters. After three games Cincinnati has intercepted 7 passes while allowing exactly zero passing touchdowns. SMU and former Texas standout Shane Buechele lead a strong passing game for the Mustangs. But this team hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Bearcats. Cincinnati is currently ranked in the Top 10. In Sonny Dykes career his teams are 0-7 SU vs Top 10 and 4-17 SU vs Top 25 opposition. We will back the Bearcats here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show |
339 Rutgers at Michigan State What does it say about this Michigan State program that it replaced a legend in Mark Dantonio, with Mel Tucker who went 5-7 in his only head coaching job a year ago at Colorado. The same 5-7 record the Buffaloes had in each of the two prior seasons. The Spartans averaged only 22 points per game in 2019, and still haven’t announced who the starting quarterback is. Defensively Michigan State only brings back three starters, so questions abound all over this roster. Greg Schiano is back in his familiar territory of New Brunswick. He started here in 2001 and left after the 2011 season. He has a winning record with the Knights, 68-67 in his previous tenure. That’s enough to celebrate his return to New Jersey. The Scarlet Knights added some big transfers including QN Noah Vedral from Nebraska. Overall 16 starters return to what looks to be a far more physical squad. Rutgers is also looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout in its final home game of 2019. Money has come in on Rutgers since the opener, and that’s smart money. Nobody but pros would step in to back a 3-21 football team the past two seasons. We agree with the move as Schiano has proven himself to be a quality college football head coach, something this state hasn’t seen since he left close to a decade ago. PLAY RUTGERS |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
273 Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco The Rams rank 1st in the NFL in average yards per pass attempt at 8.68, the 49ers 23rd at 6.68. That means every time one of these quarterbacks go back for a pass the Rams have a 2 yard advantage offensively. The Rams also lead the NFL allowing just 5.56 ypp, while the Niners sit 13th at 6.74. So the passing advantage is huge for the visitor. LA also is 2nd in defensive sacks per attempt. The 49ers are getting healthier but the Rams are still better in the trenches. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 40-23 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
256 Atlanta at Minnesota The Texans had success last week after firing it's head coach in the middle of the season. But that's a rarity when it comes to covering the spread. Atlanta cleaned house after losing on Sunday, but this team has more problems than the head coach and GM. The Falcons defense continues to struggle against teams it should be able to beat. Blowing leads has been the norm, and this club is now 0-5 on the season. With a veteran team we can only see things getting worse. Minnesota has played better as of late and they almost pulled off the upset at Seattle on Sunday. This team continues to play with heart, something we just haven't seen from the Falcons. Grab this play now before the line rises. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
257 Houston at Tennessee Despite the current records we feel the Texans to have the better roster. And now without a Head Coach/GM that held them back, there is plenty of value on the visitor. The Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per play, Tennessee 14th. Houston also runs the ball better than the Titans, 4.15 ypr to 3.87. Defensively Tennessee does have a slight edge defending the pass, 15th to 17th. But once again Houston’s defense against the run is better, 25th to 32nd and dead last for Tennessee. The Titans allow 5.49 yards per rush, which is higher than the LA Rams allow per pass! With home field advantage being lower than ever, we will back the better team catching points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +13.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
162 Marshall at Louisiana Tech We’ve been a big believer in the Thundering Herd this year, as Doc Holliday continues to be one of the best coaches in the college ranks. That said, this team is really being priced high here against a quality Bulldogs squad. Over the last decade the Herd is only 11-19-2 ATS as a road favorite, and haven’t posted a winning mark in that regard since 2015. Tech is coming in off a ten win season in 2019, and Skip Holtz has a history of rewarding backers in the underdog role. The Bulldogs struggled against UTEP last week, but this Miners team is much better than any other squad Dana Dimel has coached in El Paso. Since 2014 Louisiana Tech is 28-8 straight up at home. Throw in the fact that this team was embarrassed by Marshall last year 31-10, and we have a terrific revenge situation. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-13-20 | Rays -106 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
967 Tampa Bay & Houston The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs righties, while the Astros are 94 wRC+ against southpaws. The major advantage from a pitching standpoint is the Tampa Bay bullpen, as we simply do not trust the pitchers in this Houston pen. Case in point is the records in extra innings and one run games. Tampa is a combined 19-8 while Houston sits at 12-22. The fact is this Tampa team is built to win close games. Throw in the fact that the Rays are 21-12 on the road, and Houston is 13-25 away from home, and we have quite an edge with the Rays. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
475 Minnesota at Seattle The Vikings defense has been a sieve this year, but the Seahawks have been just as bad. Minnesota ranks 31st in defensive passing yards per play, but they have stopped the run at the tenth best rate in the league. Seattle also excels in stopping the run, but ranks 28th defending the pass. The Seahawks are first in offensive passing yards per play, and 11th in rushing yards per play. Minnesota has been even more balanced offensively at 5th and 3rd respectively. Other than New Orleans the Seahawks suffer the loss of home field advantage more than any other team without all fans. Throw in the fact that Seattle tends to play to the competition, and we find value on the Vikings catching this key number. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-06-20 | Marlins +185 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
909 Miami at Atlanta The Marlins have a 111 wRC+ vs lefties, while the Braves are 126 vs righties. Both teams hitting much better than league average. Miami has the better road record, 22-14 vs 16-14. Sandy Alcantara has a 59 average game score in three starts against the Braves. Max Fried has a 48 average game score in his last five starts against Miami. Overall the past seven starts have shown both pitchers with a 55 average game score. While we understand that the Braves should be favored, this line is very much inflated in our eyes. PLAY MIAMI |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars +3 v. Bengals | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 49 m | Show |
257 Jacksonville at Cincinnati Money is coming in on the host here so we should be able to get a better number later in the week. Cincinnati has been a team that finds a way to cover as an underdog, with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS on the season. But now the Bengals are being installed as a favorite, and we want nothing to do with this club laying points. The public perception is that this club is a hard trying team with a future star at quarterback. And that’s true, but this offensive line is currently terrible. With 32 teams in the league the Bengals rank 31st in rushing yards per play and 31st in passing yards per play. Cincinnati is 29th in sacks per pass attempt. While we love the future of Burrow, he just doesn’t have enough protection to lift up this ailing offense. Nobody expected anything from this Jacksonville team coming into the season. But this is a team that has outgained the opposition each of the last two weeks, and the opening week win over Indianapolis is looking even more impressive now. With extra time to prepare after losing to the Dolphins last Thursday, we will look for a big bounce back from the visitor. The Jags are 7th in rushing yards per play while the Bengals defense ranks 26th in stepping the run. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-30-20 | Cardinals +150 v. Padres | Top | 7-4 | Win | 150 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
949 St Louis at San Diego Nice price on the road underdog Cardinals here. Kwang Hyun Kim has an average game score of 60 in his last seven starts. But a closer look shows just how hard he is to hit the first time you see him. Against Milwaukee the first time he posted a 74 game score, down to 54 in his next start against the Brewers. Facing Pittsburgh for the first time he had a 66 game score, but dropped to 43 the second time the Pirates saw him. Same with Cincinnati, 69 the first time and 63 the second. Obviously this is the first time he will face San Diego. Chris Paddack regressed as expected this season. He got off to a red hot start last year and faded a bit down the stretch. This year he has a 4.73 ERA and his last seven starts show him as a league average 50 game score. Clear pitching advantage here for the underdog. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -115 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
937 Chicago White Sox at Oakland Oakland has a wRC+ of 104 vs righties, but the Sox have a whopping 143 wRC+ vs lefties. In fact, Chicago is 14-0 on the season when facing a lefty starter. Luzardo has a 51 average game score in his last seven starts. Giolito in that same time frame is at 67. Lucas G has faced the A’s twice in his career posting game scores of 53 and 66, league average is 50. The Sox enter this series slumping a bit, but that just helps keep this line in control. Keep in mind that teams did not face equal schedules this year. The White Sox competed in a division with three playoff teams, the A’s on the other hand had themselves and Houston. Can’t understand why the A’s would throw a lefty against this lineup, but we will take advantage of it. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -167 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -167 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
934 Houston at Minnesota Minnesota has a 108 to 102 wRC+ advantage on the season vs righties, compared to Houston. The Astros have been terrible on the road with a 9-23 record. The Twins have been outstanding at home with a 24-7 mark. When playing .500 teams or better the Astros stand at 4-13 on the season, while Minnesota is 18-12. In the last seven starts overall Greinke has a 47 average game score, his best start was a 56 against the lowly Texas offense. Kenta Maeda has likely been the best free agent signing this season. His average game score in his last seven starts has been 65. His worst start of 56 equalled Greinke’s best start. This is the third straight series Houston is playing on the road, while the Twins are playing its third straight series at home. The price is steep but for good reason. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -103 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
465 Houston at Pittsburgh Texans enter this contest after playing the toughest schedule in the history of the NFL the past two weeks. Kansas City and Baltimore are at least 3 points better than any other team in the league. Despite being outscored 67 to 36 in those contests, there are some positives for Houston. The Texans lost the turnover battles in both games, -3 on the season. That is likely to regress when facing lower rated opposition. When looking at the all important yards per play category, Houston is holding its own. Baltimore beat Houston 6.7 YPP to 5.7 YPP. But the Texans beat the Chiefs 6.7 YPP to 5.6 YPP. Teams that start the season 0-2 lose favor in the minds of the bettors, we take advantage of that here. As opposed to the schedule Houston played, Pittsburgh faced two of the worst teams in the league, the Giants and Broncos. Despite having the better talent the Steelers struggled to put away the opposition, barely beating the Broncos with a back up quarterback last week. With home field advantage being worth less than ever, the Texans are a live dog here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-20-20 | Royals +140 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
967 Kansas City at Milwaukee Neither team is very good vs right-handers, with Milwaukee at a wRC+ of 85 and the Royals at 89. But we do like the pitching matchup for Kansas City. Brad Keller has a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. He hasn’t given up a home run in 43.2 innings of work. Is it sustainable? Of course not, but in the last three seasons he has only allowed 22 homers in 349.1 total innings. So he has long term homer suppression. He is built up to go a long way today with his last three starts showing total pitches of 111, 106 and 103. Josh Lindblom has a 48 average game score this season. His return to the majors hasn’t been as smooth as he would have liked. He hasn’t gotten a victory in his last six starts. We don’t think he and the Brewers deserve to be substantial favorites here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts -3 | Top | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 144 h 47 m | Show |
274 Minnesota at Indianapolis Heading into the opening week this is one game we had circled and we bet the lookahead line. Despite the Colts losing to the lowly Jags we like this game even better now. We graded the Colts five points higher than the Vikings comming into the season, and that may be a bit conservative. The Colts simply dominated Jacksonville Sunday in just about every category you look at, except turnovers. Indy was -2 in the turnover department despite winning yardage by 204. Keep in mind the Colts never punted in the entire game. Minnesota lost by nine points at home to a team expected to regress badly this year. The Vikings lost the yardage battle by 140. We know this line is going to rise and getting it on the right side of three is a bonus. Wouldn't surprise if we saw the same type of line movement which led to our early release last week. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
07 Wake Forest at North Carolina State Wake fared about as well as expected by facing Clemson out of the gate. This is a team really dropping down in opposition, with a game already under its belt. The Demon Deacons are running one of the fastest offenses in college football. We expect this team to have a great deal of success against a team not used to that type of pace. NC State has been dealing with Covid 19, so its been tough getting players on the field together. In what we expect to be a high scoring game we will back the visitor. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
102 Cincinnati at Cleveland Mixed thoughts surrounding the debut of Joe Burrow. He only had a passer rating of 54 and the offensive line continued to have problems. He didn’t have a single August practice that had his full slate of receivers healthy. Those timing issues are especially needed when traveling on a short week where there is no time to work out the problems. The Browns played the Ravens much closer than the final score, but mistakes plagued the team all afternoon. Cleveland lost the yardage battle 377-306, but really struggled in key downs going 3 of 15 on third and fourth, while the Ravens went 6 of 11. The Browns also lost the turnover battle 3 to 1. So while the Bengals looked competitive in the opener, the Browns were much better than the final score. This Cleveland team is loaded, and with a chip on its shoulder we expect the best of the Browns here. Year after year the home team in these Thursday games have dominated. With what happed last week we really like Cleveland here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
477 Dallas at Los Angeles Rams Last year these two clubs finished in the top three in pace of play. Word out of LA is that this is also a very fast field, great for breakaway speed. These offenses are very talented and we have questions about both defenses, which are banged up at key positions. With the game on the key number of 51 and this being a nationally televised night game. This total has nowhere to go but up. PLAY OVER |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
464 Philadelphia at Washington Can’t trust the Eagles in the road favorite role. Week one divisional dogs are on a 21-5-1 run, and teams not making the playoffs the previous season have been golden when up against a playoff participant. Washington has quality players, it’s been the organization that has been the drawback. With the promise to change the name we feel the management is now starting to join the 21st century. The Eagles have major injuries coming into this game with Jeffrey, Wentz, Reagor and Sanders being banged up. The defense has many question marks as well with Avery, Maddox, Effs, Hargrave and Barnett not being 100%. Touch to lay this type of number on the road to a team very familiar. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-13-20 | Colts -8 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
467 Indianapolis at Jacksonville This Colts team is simply loaded. It’s likely the best offensive line in the NFL. Rivers has never had protection like he will have this season. This is going to be an explosive offense and the defense is likely top ten as well. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league, and has already made moves to get its franchise quarterback of the future. The Jags normally have very little home advantage, so that likely won’t change much if not at all this season. Getting this one out now as we expect this line to rise. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -22.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
396 Syracuse at North Carolina Don’t think much of this Syracuse team who has won five or less games 5 of the last 6 years. After a breakout 2018 in which the Orangemen won ten games, the team dropped to a 5-7 record last year. The players sat out practices because of the COVID, and really look like a team just going through the motions right now. This was an experienced team a year ago, no so in 2020. They hired a new defensive coordinator who is installing a 3-3-5 defense. Tough to make those type of changes and have to face an NFL caliber quarterback right out of the gate. North Carolina is a team on the rise under second year coach Mack Brown. I had originally hated the signing as I felt the game had passed him by. I’m big enough to admit my mistakes, and that was a big one. As the Tar Heels went from winning two games in 2018 to seven last year. QB Sam Howell was dominant last year and really put his name out there for those looking from the next level. North Carolina finished the year scoring 41 and 56 points, we expect a huge offensive season from this team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-11-20 | Reds v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
920 Cincinnati at St Louis The Cardinals have dominated this series the past three seasons winning 29 of 45 meetings. Adam Wainwright isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in the past but his command and control this season has been excellent. Wainwright has just nine walks in 40.1 innings of work. He’s also been one of the most consistent starters in all of baseball. In six 2020 starts his game scores have been 66, 59, 57, 49, 78 and 58. Keep in mind the MLB average is 50, so you know when you bet on Wainwright in 2020 you are going to get a good effort. Luis Castillo has had nice success against the Cards with an average game score of 56 in his last five starts in this series. But in his last seven starts overall he is a league average of 50. Cincinnati is only averaging 3.4 runs per contest offensively its last ten games, with a high of six. This isn’t a team crossing the plate on a regular basis. On the season vs righties the Cards are a league average 100, while the Reds are 89, 11% worse than league average. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-10-20 | Giants +165 v. Padres | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
967 San Francisco at San Diego Two righties go dead to head in this one as Cahill and Paddock do battle. Both teams have hit righties well this year with the Padres coming in at a wRC+ of 125 and the Giants 110. That give the host a 15% offensive edge. But when looking at the starters it’s been Trevor Cahill who has had the more impressive season. His game scores this year have been 50, 50, 68, 53 and 53. All league average or better. Chris Paddack is averaging a 47 game score on the season. In his MLB career he has permitted 33 home runs in just 188 innings. Even in his last two starts in which he didn’t allow a homer, his average game score was just 52. Over the last three seasons the Giants have won 22 of the 41 meetings. Over the last ten games overall, the Giants have scored 71 runs while allowing just 36. And you are going to make them an underdog of this magnitude? We don’t think so, give us the Giants at this inflated price. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-09-20 | Royals +180 v. Indians | Top | 3-0 | Win | 180 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
903 Kansas City at Cleveland Danny Duffy has pitched very well on the road this year. His last four road starts graded out with game scores of 46, 64, 64 and 52. Considering that those four games were against the White Sox, Twins, Cubs and Tigers is even more impressive. When grading by wRC+ the Sox are 150 and the Tigers are 132, the top two teams in baseball vs lefties. And we know how good the Cubs and Twins are offensively. Carlos Carrasco is often heavily bet because of his name, but his average game score in his last seven starts is 54. Good but not overly impressive. In fact, his last five starts against the Tigers graded out at 48. The Indians deserve to be favored today but this line is much too high. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-08-20 | Angels -123 v. Rangers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
971 Los Angeles Angels at Texas Andrew Heaney faced the Rangers a month ago and was hit hard resulting in a 29 game score. But his previous four starts against Texas were game scores of 64, 62, 84 and 69. On the season Texas is 2nd last in baseball vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. The Rangers enter this game dropping 8 of 9 overall. Lance Lynn was hoping to be traded at the deadline, but that didn’t happen. His first start after that disappointment was his worst start of the season, a 37 game score against the Astros. With Texas just playing out the string and bringing up your players for an audition for the future, we can’t see Lynn overly excited to bring his “A” game from here on out. The Angels have a 120 wRC+ vs righties, good for fifth best in baseball. This number has been bought up by the wise guys overnight, but still has plenty of value. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
926 Texas at Seattle The Rangers are dead last in the league vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. That’s 35% worst than an average team. The Rangers have also dropped 7 of its last 9 games overall, while scoring 4 runs or less in 8 of 10 games. Justus Sheffield has an average game score of 55 in his last four outings. Kyle Gibson on the other hand has put up game scores of 41, 37, 35, 52 and 30 his last five starts. Seattle has a 101 wRC+ on the season vs righties. Money has been flowing towards the Mariners all day, and we agree. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-28-20 | Mariners +180 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
927 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels While Andrew Heaney has pitched well against the Mariners this year , with game scores of 54 and 58. It will be the third time in a month the Mariners have seen the lefty. Heaney has only allowed two home runs this year and yet his ERA is still 5.52. The last three seasons he has given up 49 long balls in only 304.2 innings. Margevicius has been solid since coming over to Seattle with game scores of 56, 59 and 46. The Mariners are playing good ball right now having won 6 of 8 as of late. Looking at wRC+ vs lefties this season Seattle is at 70 and the Angels 71. No way should this line be anywhere near this high. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-28-20 | Royals v. White Sox -138 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
916 Kansas City at Chicago White Sox Danny Duffy has been very good this year, and has a nice 54 average game score against the White Sox his last five starts in this series. But the Royals are only 6-12 on the road and 10-16 vs right-handed starters. The Sox are a perfect 8-0 on the season vs lefties, with an unheard of wRC+ of 170. That’s 33% higher than the second ranked team in the league vs left-handed starters. The Sox are hot having won 9 of its last 10 games. Cheap number at home vs a lefty pitcher. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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08-25-20 | Angels v. Astros -136 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
974 LA Angels at Houston The Astros have dominated this series winning 67% of the last 42 meetings, including 3 of 4 this year. Jose Suarez has an average game score of 34 his last seven starts. Well short of the league average of 50. in 82.1 innings of MLB work he has allowed 24 home runs! Cristian Javier has been impressive in his rookie season, with a 55 average game score. The Angels are 4-12 on the road and 5-16 vs right-handed starters. Houston is 7-5 vs lefties with a wRC+ of 131, 31% better than league average. The Astros are 11-4 at home. PLAY HOUSTON |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
747 Denver and Utah The Jazz have been a major surprise thus far especially considering the lack of depth. But it’s one thing to be an underdog. It’s something totally different to be the team with the 2-1 series lead and now be a solid favorite. Last meeting the series was tied and Utah went off as a single digit favorite. Now Denver has its back to the wall and is getting more points? Just can’t see how anything but that single game outcome has moved this line two full points. Look for the Nuggets best effort tonight. PLAY DENVER |
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08-21-20 | Angels v. A's +107 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 107 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
976 LA Angels at Oakland Going against the early line movement in this one as we get the clearly better team in the home dog roll. Sure Andrew Heaney has had very good success against this A’s squad, with an average game score of 62 his last five meetings. He’s fared much better against todays opponent that Mike Tiers who has a 42 average game score against the Angels. That’s a clear starting pitcher edge for Los Angeles. But looking much deeper we see that Heaney has a 4.74 ERA this season despite only allowing a single home run in 24.2 innings. Fiers on the other hand has a 5.96 ERA but has allowed 7 hame runs in just 25.2 innings. The previous two seasons the Angels lefty allowed 47 homers in 275.1 innings of work. These are two pitchers about to hit major regression. The road favorite Angels are just 4-14 vs right-handed starters and 3-9 this year on the road. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 vs lefties and 11-3 overall in this ballpark. The last season plus Oakland has a 17-9 record in this series. Too much value in this one to not want a piece of the home dog. PLAY OAKLAND |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees +113 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
912 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees As much as the public seems to like Blake Snell, his last five starts against the Yanks have averaged a 52 game score. Just slightly better than the league average game score which is 50. Tanaka on the other hand has simply owned the Rays with an average game score of 70 his last five starts against them. When looking at current form for the last seven starts overall, Snell is at 54 while Tanaka is at 51. From an offensive standpoint the Rays have a slight edge in wRC+ at 999 to 950. Rare chance to get the Yankees at home at an underdog price. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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08-13-20 | Pirates +163 v. Reds | Top | 9-6 | Win | 163 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
959 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Believe it or not but the Pirates have owned Cincinnati the past few years. Now 26-12 vs the Reds. And Trevor Williams has posted an average game score of 63 his last five starts vs Cincinnati. The Reds are also 3-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. We rate the Reds starter one tier better. Offensively these lineups are an 898 wRC+ for the Pirates and 932 for the Reds. Not nearly enough edges to support a line of this size. Plenty of value on the Pirates on Thursday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-07-20 | Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
958 Detroit at Pittsburgh Under You won’t find too many batting orders as bad as these two tonight. Detroit has a wRC+ of 772 vs righties, while the Pirates are at a wRC+ of 780 against lefties. Both starting lineups combine to feature just one hitter above the league average of 100. That player is sitting in the number eight hole for Pittsburgh, Stallings the catcher. Both starters have underperformed thus far giving us a nice opportunity against this medium range total. PLAY UNDER |
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08-03-20 | Canadiens v. Penguins -160 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
028 Montreal and Pittsburgh The Canadiens pulled off the shocker in the opener as they out hustled Pittsburgh from the get go. But despite the 3-2 overtime victory, Pittsburgh dominated in expected goals. With the better defense and with their backs to the wall, we see Pittsburgh evening up this series on Monday. Pittsburgh has a distinct advantage at 5 on 5, so look for the Pens to play a much cleaner game. The special teams also favor the Pennsylvania squad, do power plays will be huge. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-01-20 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
004 NY Rangers and Carolina While many feel the Rangers match up well with the Hurricanes, after winning all four regular season battles. We see it as New York was very fortunate, as Carolina had the higher expected goals in 3 of those four meetings. We are well aware of Carolina being shorthanded defensively, but our numbers clearly show this to be the much better team. The Hurricanes are our long shot to win the cup, and the price here is extremely cheap. PLAY CAROLINA |
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07-28-20 | Cubs +102 v. Reds | Top | 8-5 | Win | 102 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
957 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Much was expected from the Reds this season, but this club has struggled out of the gate. After Bauer, Castillo and Gray the Reds starting rotation really steps down in class. Cincinnati matches up really well vs lefties but steps down when facing right handed pitching. The Cubs don’t have a clear number one starter, but this team goes five deep in the rotation. Chicago also has nine players that rate better than league average in wRC+ against righties. Good matchup for the visitor. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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03-09-20 | Avalanche v. Kings +120 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
042 Colorado at Los Angeles The Kings have beaten the Avalanche 7 of 10 overall and 12 of 18 here at home. This is a team playing tremendous defense as of late, and are extremely underrated because of its record. Colorado is playing well right now and are the more popular team at the moment. That gives us nice value on the home underdog. PLAY LOS ANGELES KINGS |
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03-06-20 | Boise State +9 v. San Diego State | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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02-28-20 | Cavs +12.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
533 Cleveland at New Orleans Cavaliers are having success since changing coaches as the team is learning to play for each other. It’s a squad playing with confidence right now that wasn’t happening earlier in the season. The Pelicans aren’t used to being a sizable favorite, as this is just the second time all season New Orleans has laid double digits. This is an LA Lakers sandwich for the team that lost Davis before the season. Have to feel this will be a letdown spot for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +8 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
502 Philadelphia at Cleveland The Sixers are treading water right now with a 13-12 record as of late. This is a club that has been great at home but struggles on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-12 straight up as of late on the road. The two victories were at New York by 3 and Brooklyn by 6. Philadelphia is in the midst of playing 10 straight games in different cities. Not playing back to back at home until mid-March. Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 contests with the only loss coming at Miami, in the second game of a back to back situation. The way the Cavs are built right now it has one of the deepest and talented front courts in the league. A great matchup here against Embiid, with Simmons still on the sideline. Gotta fade the Sixers here as this team struggles mightily on the road. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
873 Louisville at Florida State The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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02-22-20 | Cal-Riverside v. Cal Poly +3.5 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation. The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road. PLAY CAL POLY |
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02-19-20 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Alabama | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
803 Texas A&M at Alabama Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. PLAY TEXAS A&M |