Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-11-19 | Braves -124 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
951 Atlanta at Philadelphia Keuchel & Eflin Zach Eflin has faced the Braves twice this season. In 5.2 innings he has permitted 12 earned runs with a combined game score of 15. He has permitted four home runs in those 5.2 innings of work. On the season Eflin has allowed 23 long balls in 140 innings. Not a good combination pitching in this ballpark. Dallas Keuchel isn’t prone to home runs as a ground ball pitcher. Over the last two seasons he’s permitted 30 home runs in 295.1 innings of work. The Braves are 68-45 vs righties, while the Phillies are just 16-22 vs left handed starters. With Atlanta having a better road record than the Phillies do at home, we don’t mind the road favorite price. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-09-19 | Yankees -110 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
961 New York at Boston Paxton & Rodriguez The Yankees have dominated the Sox this season 13-5. Paxton has produced a solid 56 average game score against Boston his last five starts. Rodriguez has a 43 average game score against the Yankees his last five starts. Paxton is on quite a roll as of late with an average game score of 62 his last seven starts overall. Eduardo Rodriguez himself is doing quite well with a 54 average game score his last seven overall. But here’s the real advantage for the visitor. The Yankees are an outstanding 29-16 on the season vs lefties, while the Sox have struggled vs southpaws with a 20-26 mark. New York is 41-28 on the road, while Boston has struggled in Fenway with a 36-38 record. Let the 2019 dominance of the Yankees continue on Monday. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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09-08-19 | Nationals v. Braves +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
906 Washington at Atlanta Scherzer & Soroka Both pitchers have fared well against the opposition. Mad Max though hasn’t faced the Braves yet this season. Mike Soroka on the other hand has a 54 average game score in three starts against the Nats. While Scherzer has been good at not allowing homers, about one per nine innings the past three seasons. Soroka has only given up 11 long balls in 178.1 innings of big league work. That is simply outstanding. In a game with a total of 8.5 runs, that statistic could be the key to victory. Washington is 58-46 vs righties, while the Braves are 67-44 against the same. The Bats are a solid 37-34 on the road, but Atlanta has a strong 47-27 home mark. Catching the Braves at home in a plus money situation looks very favorable. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-07-19 | Stanford +3 v. USC | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
385 Stanford at USC Both teams will be without its starting quarterback this week, as both suffered injuries in last weeks games. While the drop-off is much more devastating for the Trojans. New Stanford starter Davis Mills was a highly recruited player, while USC’s signal caller was a 3* recruit who was fourth on the depth chart just a month ago. Stanford has won outright 4 of the last 6 meetings in this building, and the Cardinal have a huge coaching advantage. Stanford is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog under David Shaw and 31-14 straight up on the road. USC is now 3-10 ATS as a home favorite the past 2+ years under Clay Helton. PLAY STANFORD |
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09-06-19 | Rangers +123 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 123 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
915 Texas at Baltimore Burke & Bundy Brock Burke has been excellent in his first three starts of his Major League career. He has an average game score of 61 and he has not permitted a homer in 18 innings of work. We love backing unknown lefties the first time through the league. Dylan Bundy on the other hand is a home run machine. He has permitted 93 long balls in 479.1 innings of work the past three seasons. He has permitted 26 in 138 innings this season. Texas is 44-46 vs righties, while the O’s are 19-34 vs southpaws. The Rangers have a better road record than the Orioles do at home 29-44 to 22-47. Nice payout price here for what looks to be a solid road underdog against an undeserving favorite. PLAY TEXAS |
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09-05-19 | Twins +141 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 141 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
971 Minnesota at Boston Perez & Eovaldi Martin Perez hasn’t faced the Red Sox since 2017, which favors the pitcher. Boston hasn’t hit lefties all year with a 20-24 record. Eovaldi continues to struggle off his injury stint, and has posted a 6.23 ERA on the season. Minnesota is an outstanding 69-37 vs righties, and 47-24 on the road. Over the last month the Twins have posted a 19-11 record, while the Sox continue to flounder around .500 with a 16-14 mark. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-03-19 | Twins +131 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
969 Minnesota at Boston Dobnak & Porcello Randy Dobnak will get the start for the Twins tonight. He’s pitched out of the bullpen thus far. He only allowed less than half a homer a game this year in the minors, which is a concern in this ballpark. Rick Porcello has a 63 average game score his last five starts vs the Twins, but he allows too many long balls to gain trust against this team. Porcello has permitted 91 home runs the past three seasons, including 26 in 149.1 innings of work in 2019. Against this home run hitting lineup of the Twins, those numbers just won’t cut it. Minnesota is 68-37 vs righties, while the Sox are 54-39. Minnesota is 46-23 on the road while Boston is just 34-34 at home. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-02-19 | Padres +128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
907 San Diego at Arizona Quantrill & Leake Going against the line move here as we once again fade Mike Leake. The Arizona righty finally had an above average game for the Rays last time out. He went into San Francisco and produced a 63 game score. But his previous five game scores were 32, 43, 15, 38 and 35. With a league average number of 50, you can see how he has struggled. Cal Quantrill had produced game scores of 59, 57, 72, 46, 58 and 68, before struggling badly at home against the Dodgers last time out. We can forgive any pitcher who isn’t at their best against that Dodgers lineup. The Padres have the better record vs righties, 53-53 to 47-50. San Diego is also a very respectable 33-35 away, while the Diamondbacks are just 33-33 at home. We are getting great value here on a game we feel should be much closer to a coin flip contest. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
209 Louisiana Tech at Texas Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. His teams are on a 16-9 spread run against non-conference opponents. With Grambling State on deck you know his team will be all in to knock off a major conference heavyweight. For some reason Texas has gotten a great deal of hype in the offseason. For the life of us we can’t understand why. In the past five seasons the Longhorns have only had 13 players drafted, including two last year. Under Tom Herman Texas is 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. Herman’s role is that of an underdog. Last year they had nine of its 14 games decided by seven points or less. Texas is 3-7 as a home favorite under Herman and the team has a huge game hosting LSU on deck. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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08-28-19 | Indians -170 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
963 Cleveland at Detroit Civale & Zimmerman The Indians are 39-13 the past three seasons against the Tigers, including 13-1 this season. The Tribe is 51-38 vs righties while the Tigers are 29-72 vs the same. Cleveland has a 36-28 record on the road while Detroit is just 17-44 at home. The Indians are 17-13 the past month while Detroit is 9-21. Aaron Civale has an outstanding 1.82 ERA and an average game score of 62. He’s pitched 29.2 innings without giving up a home run. His mound counterpart is Jordan Zimmerman who comes in with a 6.48 ERA and a 44 average game score his last seven starts. The past three seasons Zim has allowed 69 home runs in 373.1 innings of work. What really puts the Tribe over the top is how it has performed against Zimmerman. In five starts the past three years Zimmerman has an average game score of 34, an ERA of 10.69 and has lasted just 16 innings. He has allowed 6 home runs and produced just 4 strikeouts. This is a terrific pitching advantage for the Indians. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-27-19 | Rangers +136 v. Angels | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
921 Texas at Los Angeles Angels Minor & Heaney Andrew Heaney has been red hot his last three starts with game scores of 84, 63 and 54. But overall he has posted an average of 56 his last seven outings. His last start was against these Rangers just a week ago and he went eight innings allowing just a single run. His strikeout to walk ratio was 14 to 0. It was an outstanding start, but with the loss fresh in the Rangers minds, we can see some major regression here. We still expect Heaney to be good, but this line is way too high. Mike Minor has an average game score of 56 his last five against the Angels. That includes a bad 28 just six days ago. His regression is expected to be a positive one. Minor’s last four road starts produced game scores of 84, 69, 42 and 56. The Angels are just 17-28 on the season vs lefties, and only 33-31 at home this season. Over the last month Los Angeles has posted a 9-21 record, and 3-7 in its last ten contests. No way should the Angels be a favorite in this price range. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-27-19 | Twins -107 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
915 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox Pineda & Giolito The past three seasons the Twins have won 32 of 49 in this series, including 8 of 13 this season. Giolito has an average game score of 52 in his last five starts against Minnesota. But his last start just six days ago was a memorable one. He pitched a complete game shutout allowing only three hits. His strikeout to walk ratio was 12 to 0 and he had a 93 game score. But that outing is fresh in the minds of the Twins who previously put up seven runs in 10 innings against him earlier in the year. Pitchers who have extreme game scores and then face the same team tend to face major regression. Michael Pineda has an average game score of 57 against the White Sox in his last five starts against them. More impressively he has posted 53, 61 and 67 numbers against them this season. The Twins are 63-37 vs righties while the Sox are just 35-51. Minnesota is a very good road team with a 40-22 mark, while Chicago has struggled at home 33-32 on the year. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -130 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
954 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Musgrove & Vargas The Phillies are 8-2 vs their cross state rivals the past two seasons. Jason Vargas has a 54 average game score in his last seven starts. Joe Musgrove is at 46 his last seven, but he did have an excellent 72 game score in his only start vs the Phillies this year. The Pirates are a weak 12-22 on the year vs left-handed starters. The Phillies are 52-43 vs righties. The visitor is 26-38 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 38-28 at home. The Pirates broke out of a hitting slump in a big way the last two games hosting the Reds. But this team had scored just 13 combined runs the previous eight games. Now on the road vs a lefty we expect the Pittsburgh bats to go silent once again. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
918 Detroit at Minnesota VerHagen & Berrios The Twins are 18-10 vs the Tigers the past two seasons. Drew VerHagan has gotten three starts for Detroit with game scores of 54, 31 and 24. Those starts came against the White Sox, Angels and Mariners. Now he steps up in class to face the Twins. Jose Berrios has an average game score of 55 his last five against the Tigers. Detroit is 21-44 on the road and 28-70 vs righties. Let’s take advantage of the pitching mismatch. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE -1.5 |
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08-16-19 | Mets v. Royals +160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 160 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
980 New York at Kansas City Syndergaard & Montgomery Mike Montgomery disliked his role as a long reliever for the Cubs, and was very excited to get the chance to start with the Royals. It’s worked out very well thus far with 81 and 47 game scores since the trade. Normally not a big strikeout pitcher he has a 19 to 1 SO to BB ratio since the trade. The Royals really wanted him and it looks like we may be on to something as KC seems to have tweaked his delivery. The Mets are only 13-16 on the season vs left-handed starters. They are also off huge back to back series’ vs the Nationals and Braves. We see a letdown here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-13-19 | Red Sox v. Indians -101 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
916 Boston at Cleveland Sale & Clevenger The last two seasons Cleveland has a 7-4 edge over the defending champs. Chris Sale even at his best has long struggled against this Cleveland franchise. His last four starts against the Tribe have resulted in game scores of 49, 19, 27 and 25. His last five starts have produced an ERA of 9.97 with a 28 to 10 SO to BB ratio. Keep in mind despite his down season his SO to BB ratio on the year is 206 to 35. Needless to say he just hasn’t been himself against the Indians. Mike Clevenger is averaging a 66 game score in his last seven starts. In his home starts this year his game scores have been 67, 67, 59, 74 and 84. The Indians are 22-8 over the last 30 days while the Sox are 12-17. Cleveland is 25-12 on the season vs southpaws. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
955 Baltimore at New York Ynoa & Paxton The last seven meetings in this series has resulted in game totals of 16, 13, 15, 11, 12, 15 and 17 runs. Gabriel Ynoa has a game score average of 41 in his last seven starts. The Yankees who had combined to score 82 runs in its last nine games, was shutout yesterday at Toronto. With this being the first game of a doubleheader, the starters will be kept in the game longer in order to rest the tired bullpens. Keep in mind the Orioles have allowed 90 combined runs its last ten games. PLAY OVER GAME ONE |
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08-10-19 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
963 Arizona at Los Angeles Young & Maeda Hard to believe with just how dominant the LA has been. But win last nights victory by Arizona, the Diamondbacks are now 27-24 the past three seasons against the Dodgers. Kenta Maeda started the year strong but he has struggled as of late His last three game scores have been 31, 29 and 48. His last five starts against Arizona have produced an average game score of 47. Considering league average is 50, you can tell he’s underperformed on a regular basis. Alex Young is a lefty that has never faced LA, which is something that we look for in our handicapping. In his last seven starts his average game score is 59. As good as the Dodgers are against righties 54-27, the team is less successful when facing southpaws 23-14. With a 17 game division lead the Dodgers have the ability to rotate starters, which gives us more value for the 59-57 Diamondbacks who are still fighting for a wild card spot. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-06-19 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -130 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
956 Philadelphia at Arizona Arrieta & Leake Heading into last night the Diamondbacks were 12-4 the past three seasons in this series. Mike Leake heads to the NL after the trade from Seattle. In his last five starts against the Phillies he owns a 60 average game score. In his last seven starts overall he has an excellent 31 to 3 SO to BB ratio. Jake Arrieta has an average game score of 43 his last seven starts. And he has done so allowing just four home runs in those games. Plenty of value on the host here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-05-19 | Nationals v. Giants -125 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
910 Washington at San Francisco Feede & Samardzija Don’t look now but Jeff Samardzija is pitching better than he has in years. In his last six starts his game scores have been 70, 63, 46, 66, 71 and 68. Four of those six starts were on the road. Including hitters parks in Philadelphia and Colorado. That’s impressive for anyone, and because it’s from what many considered a journeyman, it’s not being discussed in the national media. Previous to this run he had a 2.5 to 1 SO to BB rate. In his last seven starts it’s over 4 to 1. His opponent tonight is Erick Fedde who in his last seven starts has a SO to BB rate of 18 to 17. His average game score is 42. He is coming off a 7 game score hosting Atlanta. The Bats were red hot earlier to get back into playoff contention, but are only 3-7 as of late. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-03-19 | Cardinals v. A's -147 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
932 St Louis at Oakland Hudson & Fiers The Cardinals were one of the hottest teams in the league until it started to run into good baseball teams. Teams with a winning record. Against the Cubs and Astros the Cards suddenly lost 4 of 6. Now the team travels to Oakland and takes on an A’s squad which is 20-10 over the last month. Mike Fiers is considered a journeyman by most MLB fans, but he has been extremely good the past two seasons. 21-11 combined with ERA’s of 3.54 this year and 3.56 a year ago. In his last seven starts his average game score has been 59 with a 1.94 ERA. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher which doesn’t hurt him in this ballpark. Dakota Hudson has solid numbers on the season, but he has struggled with control as of late. His last three game scores were 29, 51 and 44. His last four on the road were 51, 44, 46 and 30. Nice value on the host here. PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-30-19 | Astros -129 v. Indians | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
911 Houston at Cleveland Verlander & Bieber Hard to believe but the Indians have not faced Justin Verlander since 2017. When in Detroit the Tribe faced him on a regular basis, but after switching divisions Cleveland has been very lucky not to have faced the future Hall of Famer. The Astros are quite the step up in class for the Indians who just faced Kansas City, Toronto, Kansas City and Detroit the last 14 games. Cleveland was 11-3 in those contests. The only winning team the Indians faced before that was the Minnesota Twins, and the Tribe lost 2 of 3 to the division leader. Before than the Tribe faced Cincinnati, Kansas City, Baltimore, Kansas City and Detroit. In those 14 games Cleveland had another 11-3 record. So against teams with losing records the Tribe has posted a recent 22-6 mark, against teams with a winning record 1-2. As opposed to the Indians, Houston has played 20 straight games against teams with a winning record, coming away with a 13-7 mark. The Tribe just isn’t ready to step up in class tonight. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-24-19 | Rangers -136 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -136 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
915 Texas at Seattle Minor & Leake Better call a plumber it’s the Minor Leake matchup! Not as funny as the Kevin Brown, Ben Sheets matchup, but after the disaster that was yesterday any levity is needed. Seattle is 8-21 on the season vs lefties and Mike Minor has produced game scores of 62 and 79 this year against the Mariners. Mike Leake is off a near perfect game last time out, but he has struggled mightily vs the Rangers. His last three Texas starts produced game scores of 20, 22 and 30. We can fade him here at a reasonable price after than outstanding outing five days ago. PLAY TEXAS |
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07-23-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates -122 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
952 St Louis at Pittsburgh Hudson & Archer Dakota Hudson has faced the Pirates just once, it was at home in Busch and he had a 42 game score. He’s really struggled on the road as of late with game scores of 44, 46, 30 and 44. Chris Archer has already faced the Cards twice this season with game scores of 56 and 68. In his last five against St Louis his average game score has been 57. Despite his overall troubles since coming to Pittsburgh, he’s had the Cardinals number. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-17-19 | Diamondbacks -119 v. Rangers | Top | 19-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
979 Arizona at Texas Ray & Chavez Despite a 50-45 overall record the Rangers are just 14-18 on the season vs lefties. Jesse Chavez pitched just 95.1 innings a year ago, and he’s thrown 22.2 in the last three weeks. His last two starts resulted in game scores of 29 and 40. He may be tiring a bit after being a reliever for most of the season. Robbie Ray has produced game scores of 71, 67, 36, 59 and 56 his last five outings. Four of those way above the league average. In his last seven starts he has permitted just 28 total hits. PLAY ARIZONA |
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06-29-19 | A's +135 v. Angels | Top | 4-0 | Win | 135 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
977 Oakland at LA Angels Anderson & Skaggs Nice value on the underdog here as Brett Anderson has only had one bad outing on the road this season. In his other road starts he has put up game scores of 54, 49, 55, 48, 62, 59 and 55. Consistently solid away from Oakland. In his last five starts against the Angels his average game score was 56. LA is only 11-18 vs left handed starters, but 31-23 vs righties. Oakland on the other hand is 14-7 vs lefties as opposed to 30-32 vs righties. Lefty Tyler Skaggs has been good as of late with a 55 average game score his last seven. But in his last five starts against the A’s he is averaging just a 38, never lasting more than 4.2 innings in any outing. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-28-19 | Nationals -147 v. Tigers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
927 Washington at Detroit Sanchez & Norris Usually you can find value betting on a team on a losing streak, when facing a team playing well. But that’s not the case at all in this one, as we see value in the road favorite. The Tigers are 11-27 at home on the season. In the last 10 games Detroit has scored a total of 28 runs. In the last five home games the Tigers have scored 1, 1, 3, 0 and 2 runs. Anibal Sanchez isn’t lights out like he was last year, but he’s been very consistent. His last seven starts show an average game score of 56. Every offense he faced in that time frame is much better than this Tiger scoring unit. While the Tigers have averaged 2.8 runs its last ten, the Nationals are averaging 6.7. Cheap number to lay with the Pats. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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06-27-19 | Diamondbacks +102 v. Giants | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
959 Arizona at San Francisco Young & Beede Lefty Alex Young is making his MLB debut tonight for the Diamondbacks. One of our favorite handicapping angles is to play on unknown lefty staters the first time through the league. San Francisco is only 8-16 on the season vs left handed starting pitching. The Giants are just 16-23 at home overall on the season. Arizona on the other hand is a sparking 24-19 on the road. Tyler Beede has a 40 average game score his last seven starts, which is 10 less than an average MLB starter. In two starts against these D’Backs his game score average is also 40. He faced Arizona just five days ago and gave up four earned runs in four innings of action. In two starts he has a strikeout to walk ratio of 6 to 8. While we always expect a bounce back from a pitcher that was pounded in a recent start, not sure the Giants can put enough runs on the board to matter. PLAY ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS |
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06-25-19 | Rockies v. Giants -155 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
960 Colorado at San Francisco Gonzalez & Bumgarner Rarely will you ever see a starting pitching mismatch of this magnitude in this price range. Our numbers show Bumgarner with a 54% advantage in starting pitching.Mad Bum has a league average 50 game score his last seven starts and a 51 average game score his last five vs Colorado. His last two facing the Rockies here resulted in 64 and 63 game scores. Chi Chi Gonzalez hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016. In 2015 & 16 he had a 37 to 41 strikeout to walk ratio. His last seven starts dating back to that time shows an average game score of 37. That was from his days with the Rangers. While the number seems high based on the records of both squads, it’s high for a reason. The Giants should dominate offensively tonight. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-23-19 | Astros -122 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
969 Houston at NY Yankees Verlander & Happ Justin Verlander has been very good after a subpar performance by his standards. After a 60 game score or less he has posted 72, 81 and 75 scores the next outing. The Astros are 16-6 on the season vs lefty starters. Getting plenty of value here with our team dropping seven straight, with the Yankees winning eight straight. Happy is a league average pitcher his last seven outings and his average game score against the Astros is only 45. Verlander on the other hand is averaging 70 his last seven outings and 60 his last five vs the Bronx Bombers. The public will look at this game and bet the hot team vs the cold team, especially with the Yanks installed as a home dog. We totally disagree with that public thought process. PLAY HOUSTON |
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06-22-19 | Reds +111 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
907 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Castillo & Chacin Luis Castillo has been tremendous on the road this season. His game scores have been 64, 68, 31, 74, 60, 68 and 53. The lone bad game came here against the Brewers. But in his last five starts against Milwaukee he had produced game scores of 80, 53, 52 and 76 before that May collapse. We expect him to rebound nicely against a team he had pitched very well against in the past. Chacin in his last four starts shows game scores of 48, 16, 40 and 41. He’s not exactly excelled this year with a 51 to 32 strikeout to walk rate, and a 5.60 ERA. The Reds have won six straight games overall, while Milwaukee has dropped five straight. If we take in the extra inning and 1 run game records, he show Cincinnati to have the better record when factoring out the luck factor. Better team on a hot streak as a dog? Yeah we will bite. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-17-19 | Rays +125 v. Yankees | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
961 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees Chirinos & Tanaka Six of the last ten meetings in this series have been won by the road team. The Yankees have a half game lead on the Rays in the division, yet the close game luck has all been on the New York side. The Yankees are a combined 12-10 in one run and extra inning games, while the Rays are 7-13 in those contests. Over the last seven starts Chirinos has an average game score of 60, while Tanaka is at 56. Yonny has been even better on the road than at home. Our numbers suggest nice value here on the road underdog. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-16-19 | Padres v. Rockies -147 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -147 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
910 San Diego at Colorado Margevicius & Lambert Nick Margevicius is a soft throwing lefty that has only produced 18 strikeouts in his last seven starts. The last thing you want pitching in Coors Field is a guy without the ability to throw strikeouts. In two starts against the Rockies this year he has a 35 game score, allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings of work. The Padres have never faced Peter Lambert who has a 66 game score average after his first two starts. Both of those starts came against a solid Cubs offense, once at home and once away. Colorado has beaten the Padres 6 of 8 games this season, and 29 of 46 the past three seasons. Lay it with the favorite. PLAY COLORADO |
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06-15-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
964 Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers Darvish & Buehler Two starting pitchers in good form. Darvish has a 53 average game score the past seven starts with a 44 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio. His recent starts on the road were 47 in Colorado, 65 in St Louis, 61 in Cincinnati, 68 in Arizona and 57 in Miami. He has never faced the Dodgers in his career, which is an advantage to the pitcher. Buehler has been outstanding with a 65 game score in his last seven starts, and a dominating 54 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio. He hasn’t walked more that two in a game all season. PLAY UNDER |
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06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors +1 | Top | 106-105 | Push | 0 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
530 Golden State at Toronto The much better team in this series has been the Toronto Raptors. If you were to take the names off the front of the jerseys the Raptors would be a clear betting favorite. If it wasn’t for one half of a basketball game Toronto would already be champions. Toronto was favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points before the news broke that Kevin Durant would try to play tonight. I’m now seeing a three to four point line move, for a player who hasn’t stepped on the court in weeks. He’s an excellent player when fully healthy, but that’s not what we will be getting tonight. Besides, if you are Durant, a free agent after these playoffs, do you really want to risk the chance of getting further injured right before a huge payday? The Warriors have played without him for weeks, and now they must adjust to him back in the lineup. If this was a regular season game the wise guys would be looking to fad the Warriors here. We look to do the same even if it is the playoffs. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-09-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -160 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
960 St Louis at Chicago Cubs Wainwright & Hendricks Our numbers show Hendricks with a 23% starting pitcher advantage. The Cards are 11-18 on the road and Chicago is 23-11 at home. Hendricks has an average game score of 68 his last seven starts, as opposed to Wainwright with a 51 over that same time frame. Hendricks at home has produced game scores of 56, 77, 82 and 80 his last four starts at Wrigley. Over the last three seasons the Cubs have won 28 of the 46 games in this series. The home team has won nine straight in this series. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-08-19 | White Sox -129 v. Royals | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
917 Chicago WS at Kansas City Giolito & Keller Lucas Giolito was a top minor league pitching prospect for years. But injuries and lack of control always kept him as a fringe 4A player. But he has burst on to the scene in a big way this season. In his last seven starts he has a 70 average game score. His last three starts were 77, 73 and 87. His strikeout to walk ratio in those three games was a combined 28 to 2. Needless to say Giolito has arrived. And because of his poor career until this point his numbers are still at a bargain price. Brad Keller by comparison is at 44 his last seven starts, league average is about 50. Keller’s last two home outings were game scores of 34 and 33. The Royals are 15-31 at home vs right handed starters. We look for the Royals bats to be in hibernation. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-07-19 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
977 Seattle at LA Angels Gonzales & Heaney Neither team has fared well against lefties with the Mariners posting a 5-14 record and the Angels an 8-15 mark. Heaney’s starts this season have game scores of 62 and 60. His last five starts against the Mariners have averaged a game score of 52. Marco Gonzales was crushed by these Angels last time out, allowing 10 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. You know he has this game circled as he looks to right the ship against the same team that pounded him. Keep in mind his previous four starts against Los Angeles resulted in game scores of 55, 47, 73 and 53. PLAY UNDER |
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06-04-19 | A's v. Angels -110 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
926 Oakland at Los Angels Angeles Montas & Canning Big offensive edge here of 18% for the host, along with a 9% starting pitching edge. Canning has a 34 to 9 SO to W ratio his last seven starts, but that includes the 6 to 4 ratio at Baltimore on May 5th. His game score through those seven games averaged 58. We like Frankie Montas but he has been extremely lucky in the home run department. Amazingly he has gone eight straight starts without allowing a home run. We rate the Angels offense 17% higher than league average at home against righties. Nice price on the home team. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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05-28-19 | Tigers v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
964 Detroit at Baltimore Boyd & Bundy Matthew Boyd has four starts on the season away from home. His game scores in those contests were 62, 60, 69 and 52. That included games at Boston and the NY Yankees. Dylan Bundy really struggled with his mechanics early on, but as of late his home game scores have been 49, 75, 47 and 50. Those contests were against the very good offenses of the Twins, Rays, Angels and Yankees. Our numbers rate Detroit 10% worse than league average against righty starters, and the Orioles offense 13% worse against lefty starters. We look for a low scoring contest. PLAY UNDER |
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05-26-19 | Phillies +156 v. Brewers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
955 Philadelphia at Milwaukee Eflin & Woodruff Over the last three seasons these two teams have split the 18 games played, including 3-3 so far this year. Eflin & Woodruff faced off just 12 days ago with the Brewers winning 6-1. While Woodruff out-pitched Eflin in that game, the differential wasn’t as drastic as the final score. Woodruff had a 5 to 5 strikeout to walk outing, while Eflin’s was 7 to 2. In fact, career wise in this series Eflin has a 22 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio, while Woodruff is 8 to 7. Small sample size shows Woodruff to dominate this team, but the advanced stats don’t stand up. Our numbers have the Brewers starter only 3% better than the young Philadelphia righty. We also like the Phillies 5% offensive advantage. Our numbers say there is no way the Brewers should be a favorite of this size, we take advantage with a solid underdog play. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-25-19 | Rays +124 v. Indians | Top | 6-2 | Win | 124 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
919 Tampa Bay at Cleveland Morton & Carrasco The Rays have a 29-19 record on the season despite being very unlucky. Tampa is a combined 4-12 in one run and extra inning games. Very strange considering the back of this bullpen is very talented. Morton is coming off his worst start of the season with a 40 game score at the Yankees. His prior road games this season resulted in game scores of 71, 68, 69, 53 and 57. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA of about one full run higher than the last two seasons. His velocity is down and he has been very inconsistent. His last two starts against the Rays resulted in eight earned runs in 15 innings. The Rays are the better team with a comparable starter as an underdog. Sign us up. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-22-19 | Reds -103 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
951 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Castillo & Davies Not that Yellich and Braun have been declared out for the Brewers, it’s time to back the much better starter in this one. We rate Castillo a whopping 34% higher that Davies, who is due for some regression. The Reds are only 9-17 in one run games and extra innings, while the Brewers are 11-6. That means regression favors our club. The last three road games for Castillo showed game scores of 74, 60 and 68. Cheap price for the Reds here in this early contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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05-17-19 | Astros -130 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
921 Houston at Boston Cole & Porcello Playoff revenge for the Astros who lost the American League Championship to these Red Sox. This is the first meeting of the season for these two. Boston is the better fielding team and the offenses grade out even, but pitching is all Houston. We rate Cole 17% higher than Porcello, and the bullpen rates a 16% advantage. We don’t use motivation as much of a factor in baseball, but the Astros have talked about how poorly they played against Boston all off season. Keep in mind Houston won the regular season series each of the past two years. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-16-19 | Bruins -107 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
015 Boston at Carolina The Bruins are on quite a run as they have dominated throughout the playoffs. Carolina on the other hand gave all it had in the last game and came up short. Can’t see how the host has the energy to extend this series knowing it has to win four straight. Teams in that situation have been a very poor bet in hoops and hockey history. We back the road favorite here to end this series and get the rest it needs. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-08-19 | Angels +110 v. Tigers | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
971 LA Angels at Detroit Skaggs & Boyd Big fans of both these pitchers but we are fading the line move here. LA opened as the favorite, but the Tigers have taken money overnight. Our numbers make LA a -134 favorite in this contest. Offense is the main reason as the Tigers continue to struggle at the plate. Against lefties the Angels rate 17% better than the Tigers offensively. Detroit has overachieved this season, and continue to be overpriced. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-30-19 | Padres -105 v. Braves | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
955 San Diego at Atlanta Paddock & Teheran The Braves have a 6% hitting advantage in this contest, but San Diego owns all the other key stats. A major advantage for the Padres is on the mound as San Diego has a 24% pitching edge in this contest. The Padres are also the better defensive team. Paddock came into this season with a great deal of hype, and he’s lived up to it very well. Robbie Erlin saved the Pads bullpen yesterday throwing 38 pitches. Therefore the entire back of the bullpen arsenal is fully rested tonight. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-27-19 | Blue Jackets +125 v. Bruins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 125 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
043 Columbus at Boston Teams with extended days off do not do well in playoff hockey, and that was Columbus in the opening game. Still the Blue Jackets took Boston to overtime in that contest. The damage was done in the first period and the visitor was the better team thereafter. Now that both teams are on even rest we will side with the road team here. There has been little to no home ice advantage in the playoffs for an extended period of time. We like the nice plus price in this one. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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04-21-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -170 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -170 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
084 San Jose at Las Vegas As a season ticket holder for the Vegas Golden Knights, we know this team better than any other in the NHL. We’ve either attended or watched the first five games of this series. After taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, the Knights simply went through the motions back in San Jose. Once they fell behind early the team simply bided its time waiting to return to the comforts of home today. Vegas has dominated in this building in the playoffs the last two years, and have simply owned the Sharks here regardless of what time of season these two meet. San Jose can easily get blown out here if it doesn’t score the first goal. That’s the key. If the Sharks get on the board first it can be somewhat competitive. If Vegas scores first we expect a blowout victory. Either way we want to back the host here who will give full effort in front of the home crowd. This would be the very first series clinching home win in franchise history. The players want this badly for the home crowd. PLAY LAS VEGAS |
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04-21-19 | Mets -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
907 New York Mets at St Louis Syndergaard & Hudson We went against young Cards starter Dakota Hudson last time out, and we find another favorable matchup to oppose him here. Syndergaard rates 47% better by our starter numbers, and the bullpen for the Mets grades out much stronger. The line has moved towards the Mets overnight, but not nearly enough. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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04-14-19 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
960 San Diego at Arizona Lauer & Greinke At the beginning of every season the fans go crazy about the demise of Zack Greinke. Complaints about his lack of velocity and slow starts are common. But he always looks bad in Spring Training and as the season goes on he becomes the solid starter we expected. This line is based on those same old stories. We have Greinke rated 35% better than Lauer, which is not what this line is saying. It’s rare we get such a starting pitcher mismatch in this price range. We’ll jump on the home team before the expensive Zack numbers show in future starts. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-10-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -153 | Top | 15-1 | Loss | -153 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
958 Washington at Philadelphia Hellickson & Pivetta The Nationals have the better fielding team, as the Phillies are 4% worse than league average. But that’s the only edge for the visitor in this matchup. We especially show a huge margin on the mound as Pivetta rates a huge 30% better than Hellickson. With Doolittle not available after throwing 22 pitches last night in the Nationals 10-6 comeback win, we like the cheap number on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-08-19 | Brewers v. Angels -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
970 Milwaukee at LA Angels Chacin & Cahill Getting this one up early as we expect the Angels to be a solid favorite by game time. Josh Hader has to throw 36 pitches yesterday to close out the Cubs, so the outstanding closer will not be available for the Brewers here. Milwaukee also has a long travel day while the Angels have been home. Los Angeles finally broke out offensively the last couple games and our numbers have LA 10% better offensively. We also rate Cahill 12% better than Chacin, who continues to have success via smoke and mirrors. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-06-19 | Cubs v. Brewers -125 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
958 Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee We couldn’t understand the move on the Cubs yesterday, which scared us off another winner as we had the Brewers showing value. The same thing happened on the overnights as Chicago took money again. But now the Brewers money has shown which backs up our projected line of -150 here. That leaves us with plenty of value on what is clearly the better team at this stage of the season. And best of all Milwaukee rested its dominating bullpen piece in Josh Hader. Chicago on the other hand blew out Brach, Edwards, Cishek and Kintzler yesterday. All throwing 16 pitches or more. Our numbers show the host having edges across the board and we are a big fan of Corbin Burnes, who could turn into the ace of this staff. Lay the cheap number on the Brewers. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -132 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
906 Arizona at San Diego Ray & Lucchesi The more we look into this contest the more we like a bounce back for the Padres. Arizona hits lefties 6% lower than league average and we rate Lucchesi a solid 5% better than the more publicized Ray. San Diego has a slight defense edge and a 7% bullpen advantage. In reality though that bullpen edge is magnified this afternoon. The Diamondbacks had to use the back end of its bullpen last night as Bradley and Holland combined for 27 pitches. The Padres rested the back end of its bullpen and only Robert Stock has pitched in the last two nights, throwing just 12 pitches in striking out the Diamondbacks side on Monday. Nice price for the Padres to get some revenge. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-02-19 | Twins -134 v. Royals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
967 Minnesota at Kansas City Berrios & Keller Really impressed with Jose Berrios and what we expect from the Twins ace this year. He dominated the Tribe in his first outing and we rate this Royals offense 10% below league average. In fact, the Twins own advantages in every key category in this one. Including a solid 21% edge in starting pitching. We made this line much higher than what has come out as the opener, and the early money is moving our way. Still plenty of value left in this one. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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03-31-19 | Braves v. Phillies -137 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
964 Atlanta at Philadelphia While we are not one to release many favorites of this size, this number is very cheap based on our ratings. While we like Kyle Wright for his future success, pitching on national tv in his debut here is a very tough situation. He’s currently rated 14% below league average and the Braves bullpen is in shambles. Jake Arrieta isn’t the same pitcher he was just a few short years ago, but he’s still rated league average by our numbers. We expected this line to be much higher than it is, so we will jump at a rare chance to bet the Phillies at home at a decent number. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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03-30-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -135 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
018 Vegas at San Jose These two will be meeting in the first round of the playoffs, and this game means much more to the host. Vegas has dominated San Jose as of late and the host comes into this game losing seven straight games overall. The Knights are playing in the second game of a back to back, after losing at home yesterday as a -200 favorite over Minnesota. With Vegas locked into this spot in the playoffs the urgency is with the Sharks. We expect Max Legace to get the start here and when it’s announced we expect this line to rise. Regardless if it’s Subban on a back to back or Legase, we feel the host has extreme value here. Subban is just 2-9 on the road with a poor save percentage of .890. Either way the Sharks are the play. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-30-19 | Indians -110 v. Twins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
917 Cleveland at Minnesota Loving me some Indians here on Saturday. We have the Tribe with every edge except hitting in this matchup. And we feel Trevor Bauer is in for a Cy Young type of season. We rate him 34% better than journeyman Jake Odorizzi. The Cleveland bullpen and defense add up to another 12% advantage for the visitor. Cleveland has taken money overnight, and we fully agree. But there is still plenty of value in this cheap number. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-28-19 | Tigers +130 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-0 | Win | 130 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
921 Detroit at Toronto Zimmerman & Stroman We are looking to fade the Blue Jays here in the favorite role. This team should be in for a very long season, especially as it keeps the expected rookie of the year down in the minors. Jordan Zimmermann rates exactly even with Marcus Stroman, as both pitchers are 4% below league average. That really tells you all you need to know about these two pitching staffs, as these two mediocre pitchers get opening day starts. The Tigers have a 1% edge in the bullpen, while Toronto has the same 1% advantage in defense. The Jays own a small 3% edge offensively, which doesn’t equate to this betting line. Plenty of value on the Tigers here. PLAY DETROIT |
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03-26-19 | Sabres v. Senators +108 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 108 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
034 Buffalo at Ottawa Wrong team favored here by our numbers. Hutton is 5-14-3 on the road with a save percentage of .899. Anderson is 11-10-2 at home with a save percentage of .917. Overall the Sabers are 11-22-5 on the road and playing in a back to back situation. In fact, Buffalo is playing its third game in four days. The Sabers are on an 0-10-2 run on the road, yet this team is a slight favorite here. Ottawa isn’t very good but this line is crazy. PLAY OTTAWA |
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03-25-19 | Longwood +14.5 v. DePaul | Top | 89-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
609 Longwood at DePauk The Lancers are trying to even up its season record tonight at 17-17 with an upset of DePaul. Longwood lives and dies by the 3 pointer, allowing opponents to take 50.3% of its shots from long range. The Lancers themselves take 50.4% of its shots from beyond the arc. But DePaul isn’t a team that takes a lot of 3 pointers with only 33% of its attempts coming from that area. What we like about the visitor is that it only attempts 16.5% of its shots from midrange. Anytime you have a team that puts up 50% of its shots from deep, you have a team that can pull off a upset. This club is 6-1 ATS catching double digits and 3-4 straight up. We like the Lancers chances here. PLAY LONGWOOD |
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03-24-19 | Buffalo v. Texas Tech -4 | Top | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
870 Buffalo & Texas Tech Playing in the MAC the Bulls don’t get to see this type of defense very often. The Red Raiders only permit 30% of opponent shots at the rim, while forcing the opposition to attempt 30.5% from mid range. This is also a squad that is excellent against the 3 as it holds the opposition to just 29.5% accuracy from downtown. Buffalo allows opponents to take 39.2% of shots at the rim where Texas Tech shoots 67.4%. This matchup favors the Red Raiders and we expected this line to take that in to account, which is hasn’t. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-21-19 | New Mexico State +6.5 v. Auburn | Top | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
781 New Mexico State & Auburn The Aggies are ranked #2 in the country in shooting inside the arc, and are on a 19 game winning streak. This team loves to shoot the 3 and Auburn struggles against outside shooting teams. NM State is 5th in the country in rebounding margin. Very deep team who can afford to get into foul trouble. Auburn is 2-5 against Top 25 teams and only 10-7 away from home. This club is 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but has a 220th in effective field goal defense. Campus is a whopping 1876 miles from this location. With two teams playing similar styles we much prefer the underdog here in a game that has a decent shot of an outright victory. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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03-17-19 | Blues -139 v. Sabres | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -139 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
059 St Louis at Buffalo Both teams should be a bit tired here playing its fourth game in six days. The Blues have been excellent on the road with a 20-12-5 record and Jake Allen has produced a road save percentage of .925. We’ve been looking for a reasonable number to go against these Sabres. This is a team that was a major surprise early in the season. But over the later part of the schedule Buffalo has looked like the bad team it was a year ago. PLAY ST LOUIS BLUES |
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03-15-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | Top | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
814 Iowa & Michigan Not only are the Wolverines off a loss to instate rival Michigan State, the team is in revenge for a 74-59 loss at Iowa. Michigan permits only 29% of opponents attempts to be from beyond the three point line. In addition, Michigan only allows 29.4% accuracy from that range. That’s a big part of this Iowa offense as the Hawkeyes attempt 39.5% shots from that area and connect on 36.3% of long range shots. Michigan forces opponents to shoot midrange on 35.9% of its shots, while Iowa only forces opponents to attempt 20% from that low efficiency area. Iowa permits 39% of opponents shots at the rim, while Michigan shoots a solid 66.1% in that area. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-14-19 | Canadiens +120 v. Islanders | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
005 Montreal at NY Islanders The Canadiens come into this game in great shape injury wise, and we much prefer Carey Price in goal. He has an outstanding .918 save percentage playing on the road. While the Islanders are 21-11-4 at home this year, the short number tells you all you need to know about who the wise guys like. We agree with the move and love the Canadiens chances at plus money. PLAY MONTREAL |
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03-12-19 | Binghamton +16.5 v. Vermont | Top | 51-84 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
603 Binghamton at Vermont The Bearcats have played much better on the road this season than at home. With a 10-22 record this team will be playing very loose in this one as the season likely ends tonight. The Bearcats are weak against the 3 pointer, allowing 37.7% success this season. But when it comes down to closer shots this team can compete against Vermont enough to make a game of this. The Catamounts are 25-6 and already beat the Bearcats twice this season. In a one bid league all Vermont has to do is win and advance. That gives the underdog a great chance to stay under this number. Playing at home where Vermont has lost only twice all season, we can see the host just going through the motions here and using the bench players extended minutes. Keep in mind Vermont uses an 11 man rotation, so the starters get extended minutes of rest. PLAY BINGHAMTON |
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03-11-19 | San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
888 San Diego & St Mary’s Fourth game in five days for a Toreros team who has a very short bench. Four players average at least 71% of the team minutes, with three going for 82.1% or higher. There is only eight players in this rotation, so foul trouble is always a concern. San Diego takes far too many shots from midrange at 33.2% of attempts, and far too little around the rim at 26.8% of attempts. This team has already lost to St Mary’s by 17 and 20 points this year. That increases the Gaels win streak in this series to 11 straight victories. This line is too short in our regard as the Gaels need to bounce back strongly here after losing its last regular season game to arch rival Gonzaga. Fresher team gets it done in a big way today. PLAY ST MARY’S |
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03-09-19 | Celtics v. Lakers +6 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Fresh off our NHL Game of the Week as the underdog Winnipeg Jets won 8-1 yesterday. Now on a 10-3 NBA run and tonight we are STEPPING OUT WITH A BEST BET on the hardwood. Join us as we continue to provide profit for our clients. |
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03-08-19 | Jets +149 v. Hurricanes | Top | 8-1 | Win | 149 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
075 Winnipeg at Carolina Too much value not to jump on the underdog here. Starting goalie Hellebuyck is out tonight and the line has jumped. But we like Laurent Brossoit in goal as his overall save percentage is actually better than the starter. The 30 cent jump is way more than what we would expect, so we now have solid value on the Jets. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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03-06-19 | Cavs +9.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
535 Cleveland at Brooklyn The Cavaliers are a whole different team with Kevin Love healthy and in the lineup. With plenty of rest heading into this game and no contest tomorrow, the Cavs Love affair should provide us with a solid play tonight. Brooklyn leads the season series 2-1 but the last game was a triple overtime thriller. Cleveland is 5-3 straight up as of late with Love sitting the bench in the majority of those losses. Brooklyn is fighting for the playoffs which is one reason why this line is so high. But keep in mind the Nets have dropped 9 of its last 14 games. And the team has been slightly better on the road than at home this year. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-04-19 | Hawks +9 v. Heat | Top | 113-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
503 Atlanta at Miami Third game in four days for the Hawks who beat the Bulls 123-118 yesterday. But keep in mind none of the Hawks players played more than 28 minutes including Trey Young who was kicked out of the contest after only 18 minutes of play. Miami is the team trying to make the playoffs and will be a popular play with the public today. But keep in mind the Heat have lost outright to the Hawks in all three meetings this season. Can’t trust the Heat here who have lost 6 of 8 outright as of late in this building. PLAY ATLANTA |
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03-03-19 | Magic v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
582 Orlando at Cleveland Terrible spot here for the red hot Magic, off wins over Golden State and Indiana, with Philadelphia on deck. Orlando is very young and hasn’t been able to give the same effort on a night to night basis. Just in the last two weeks this team has lost to Chicago and New York. Cleveland on the other hand rested Kevin Love last night and were embarrassed by the Pistons. Love is back on Sunday and the team has played very well since his return to health. Great situational spot for the Cavaliers to take advantage of all the Orlando hype the last three weeks. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-02-19 | South Carolina v. Missouri UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
660 South Carolina at Missouri The first meeting had 160 points which gives us an advantageous line here for the rematch. Neither team is prolific from deep and South Carolina only attempts 34.5% of its shots from that range. Both teams defend the mid-range shot well, and the Gamecocks attempt 36.6% of its shots from that low efficiency area. Both teams rarely shoot at the rim, yet they are very good at stopping opponents from doing so. Therefore without easy baskets we can see this contest being very low scoring. PLAY UNDER |
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03-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
553 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Lakers Bucks are in the middle of playing three games in four days on this five game road trip. That said, the Lakers and LeBron James bring out the best in good teams. And this Milwaukee team is playing better than anyone in the league. This contest should also bring special meaning for the Greek Freak as his team lost to LeBron and his squad in the All-Star game. The Bucks have played slightly better on the road this year, while the Lakers have been very poor at home. The Lakers are 18-12 straight up at home on the season, but just 6-8 since mid-December. Simply cannot trust the host to play enough defense to keep this one close. With a winnable game at Phoenix on deck, followed by city rival Clippers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lakers go deep in the rotation tonight. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-28-19 | William & Mary -2.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
611 William & Mary at Towson The Tribe is looking to sweep its season series with Towson after winning 71-61 at home at the end of December. Riding a three game winning streak the visitor has played better on the road than at home this season. Towson has done the same as its home court value is one of the lowest in college basketball. The Tigers are just 5-5 straight up in this building. It’s tough to back the Tigers considering this team takes only 29.5% of its shots from long range, while permitting opponents to attempt a whopping 45.9% of shots from beyond the arc. When looking at midrange jumpers Towson takes 38.2% from this poor efficiency area, while the Tribe defense allows 28.9% of shots to be taken from that area. William & Mary prefers to attack the basket with 41.3% of shots to be taken at the rim. With Towson not attacking the basket, and not shooting from the 3 point line, this offense cannot be counted on. PLAY WILLIAM & MARY |
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02-27-19 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Virginia | Top | 51-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
787 Georgia Tech at Virginia Yellow Jackets have dropped 8 of 9 recently but this team actually matches up decently well with the Cavaliers. Georgia Tech has played much better on the road this season, as have these Cavaliers. The defensive key for Virginia is to force the opposition to shoot from distance, where the Cavs only allow 26.5% success from 3 point range. But Georgia Tech doesn’t attempt a lot of shots from downtown. Tech would rather compete around the rim with 37.7% of its shots coming from close range. With just four games left in the regular season Virginia just wants to win and advance at this point of the year. The last seven games for this club have been decided by 12 points or less. The Wahoos have bigger fish to fry, while Georgia Tech will be looking to pull off a shocker. We feel the visitor will keep this close throughout. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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02-26-19 | Akron v. Buffalo -14 | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
604 Akron at Buffalo The Zips played a competitive game against the Bulls just two weeks ago at home, losing 76-70. But this Zips team has really struggled on the road with a 1-8 straight up mark on the season. The Bulls on the other hand are undefeated at home this year. In breaking down this contest we see than Akron takes 47.7% of its shots from deep, while making only 31.1%. Buffalo defends the three well permitting just 30.6% from long range. Buffalo has a big advantage at the rim taking 43.7% of its shots from that high efficiency area, while Akron permits 41.9% of opponents shots to be taken at close range. With Buffalo going inside and poor shooting Akron heaving threes, this game turns into a blowout rather quickly. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-25-19 | Blazers v. Cavs +9.5 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
562 Portland at Cleveland Blazers have won three in a row all by 14 points or more. It is in the midst of a seven game season high road trip. Coming off back to back double digit road wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, this team is riding high with Boston and Toronto on deck. If you were looking for a flat spot for the Blazers, this would be it. Don’t look now but the Cavaliers are playing its best ball of the season. Winning three of its last four with the lone loss coming in double overtime. Cleveland has the next two days off before traveling to New York to face the Knicks. This is also the fifth straight game at home for the Cavs who are the far more rested team from a travel aspect. Can’t see the Blazers getting up to play Cleveland here and the return of Love has energized the host. Look for this game to be tightly contested. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-24-19 | Stars +100 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
57 Dallas at Chicago Nice price on the visitor who has a new lease on life after bringing in Zuccarello and Lovejoy via trades. Both players are expected to take the ice today which will be a nice jolt for the Stars. Dallas is playing its fourth game in six days, but the team is a respectable 4-4-1 in that situation. Cam Ward is in goal for the Blackhawks and his home save percentage of .899 is worse than either Dallas goalie on the road. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-20-19 | Bruins +116 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 116 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
73 Boston at Las Vegas We are well aware on the Bruins fourth game in six days, but there is no way we want any part of this fading Knights team as a favorite. Halak has been a hot goaltender as of late stopping .938% of shots the past five games. Cehlarik missed the last game but we expect him back tonight. While Halak has been hot the same cannot be said of Fleury who has only stopped .886% of shots the past five games. In fact, things have been so bad that the team started Subban in net each of the last two games. The Knights defense has continued to turn the ball over deep in its zone, which is a major reason why the goaltending hasn’t been as good this year. The Knights had a ton of breakaway chances last season, and that has dried up this year. As a season ticket holder for the host I’m very worried about this team going forward. PLAY BOSTON |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 148 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
626 Maryland at Iowa Having a hard time seeing these two getting to the posted total in this one. Terps have reached this number just once on the conference road all season. Maryland ranks 277th in the country in pace, and 19th in effective field goal defense. This team is outstanding defensively at the rim, allowing just 57% field goals. As well as behind the arc forcing opponents to shoot 31.6%. Iowa is also very good defensively from distance permitting just 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. While the Hawkeyes are 70th in pace, the team is 216th in field goal attempts per 100 trips up court. We look for this game to total 143 points or less. PLAY UNDER |
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02-14-19 | Southern Utah +3.5 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
687 Southern Utah at Sacramento State Nice matchup for the Thunderbirds who are riding a three game winning streak and already beat Sacramento State earlier at home. Southern Utah can be beat from long range allowing 36.6% shooting, but the host only takes 27% of its shots from beyond the arc. The Thunderbirds only take 20.6% of its shots from midrange, while tonights opponent takes a whopping 30.9% from that low efficiency area. To make matters worse the Hornets only make 30.6% of the shots from that area. Sac State does take 42.2% of attempts at the rim, but the visitor only permits 55.8% shooting from that range. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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02-13-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-97 | Win | 102 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
503 Milwaukee at Indiana In-season revenge game for the Bucks who lost to the Pacers by 16 in mid-December. Milwaukee has been golden this year after losing in the previous meeting, as well as coming off a loss in its last game. This is a club that takes losses badly and can’t wait to right the wrong. In its final game before the break we look for the Bucks to end the Pacers six game winning streak. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-12-19 | Duke -8 v. Louisville | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
637 Duke at Louisville With the Blue Devils off the big win at Virginia many will feel that this will be a letdown spot for Coach K’s squad. But the matchup clearly favors the road team. Louisville lives and dies by the three point shot, attempting 43.3% of its shots from long distance. But that plays directly into the Duke defense which only permits 33.8% of attempts from that area and just a 29.5% success rate. Duke takes 43.4% of its shots at the rim, which is much more predictable for success. PLAY DUKE |
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02-11-19 | Bucks -11.5 v. Bulls | Top | 112-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
563 Milwaukee at Chicago Not only have the Bucks been a great team in revenge, this club has bounced back strong off a loss. How bout 13-0 straight up on the season, covering the number by over 14 points per game. Since the start of the season Milwaukee has won those games by margins of 35, 23, 7, 19, 6, 3, 23, 5, 12, 14, 12, 19 and 10 points. This team lost against Orlando Saturday in the second game of a back to back situation. With Indiana and Boston on deck this is a chance for the Bucks to take out some frustrations. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-09-19 | Utah +4 v. UCLA | Top | 93-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
685 Utah at UCLA The Utes have won four of five on the road as of late, with the lone loss coming by just three points at Arizona. UCLA has dropped five of seven overall, and four of seven here at home. Utah takes 45.4% of its shots from downtown, and UCLA allows 41.3% of opponent shots from that area. So the Utes should get plenty of good looks from its favorite spot on the floor. UCLA prefers taking shots at the rim, attempting 44.5% of its shots in that range. But Utah forces opponents out of that area, permitting just 31.9% attempts close to the basket. PLAY UTAH |
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02-09-19 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
658 Wisconsin Milwaukee at Cleveland State Two teams with disappointing seasons playing out the conference string. This is the fifth straight road game for the Panthers, who have dropped five straight away from home. Milwaukee permits a whopping 45.5% of opponents shots to be taken from beyond the arc, while that plays right into the Vikings hands at home. Cleveland State takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. Milwaukee also takes 29.2% of its shots from midrange, while only forcing the opposition to take 20.5% from that poor shooting area. PLAY CLEVELAND STATE |
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02-08-19 | Hurricanes v. Rangers -100 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
58 Carolina at NY Rangers Terrible scheduling spot for the visitor who is playing the second game of a back to back after a 6-5 overtime victory last night in Buffalo. This is the fourth game in six nights for the Hurricanes, while the host is well rested. Petr Mrazek is in goal for the Hurricanes and his .894 save percentage leaves much to be desired. The Rangers should get four players back for tonights contest, which should really help out the depth for New York. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-07-19 | Islanders -130 v. Devils | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
29 NY Islanders at New Jersey Lehner in net for the visitor tonight. He’s 9-6-2 on the road with a solid .928 save percentage. Overall New York is 15-9-2 on the road and this is the second game of the fathers trip. We really like to back teams when heading on the road with the parents there, as the teams seem to enjoy the rare time with family. While the Devils have performed well the visitor has the much higher talent level. Thought this line would be at least 10 cents higher. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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02-05-19 | Michigan State -10 v. Illinois | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
603 Michigan State at Illinois Short and sweet the Spartans have been excellent coming off of a loss. Now 61% ats after a defeat and the same 61% off back to back losses. This team has much more talent than the Illini, and the host's home court value is weak. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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02-04-19 | Hawks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 137-129 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
534 Atlanta at Washington Third game in four days for the Hawks who are off five straight games on the west coast. This is a one game stopover before returning to Atlanta for a seven game home stand. This should be a throwaway game for a team just playing out the schedule with no postseason expectations. Washington is rested and at home for the third straight game. This game is sandwiched in between games against the Milwaukee Bucks, so this is the contest the Wizards will be focused on. Great situational play for the host. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +125 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
102 New England & Los Angeles Rams We were waiting for the +3 on the Rams, but it may not show. That’s fine as this will be graded on the LA Rams money line, as we feel the Rams win this one outright. If you are able to get +3 -110 yourself, we would recommend that as well. First off let’s take a look at the advantages the Patriots have over the Rams. Head Coach and Quarterback. There has been no better combination in the history of the NFL than Brady & Belichick. The Patriots have the vast experience in the Super Bowl, which should be a slight edge for the veterans. Other than those edges the Rams are more talented and faster in virtually every position on the field. In the big game last year the Eagles ran the ball all over the Pats, mostly from 11 personnel. It just so happens that the Rams run 11 personnel more than any other team in the league. That’s one running back and one tight end. And as with last year the Pats really struggle defending that alignment. Other than running straight up the middle New England allows a very high success rate on the ground. When the Patriots have the ball they are excellent at hitting running backs out of the backfield, and taking advantage of short slot plays across the middle. But those two spots are exactly where the Rams excel. Brady has real problems facing pressure up the middle, which is where the Rams pass rush attacks. Therefore the way for New England to succeed in the passing game is longer throws down the sidelines. And quite frankly New England doesn’t have the personnel to win in that regard. Brady is worse than league average throwing outside the hash marks, and the Pats don’t have enough wide receiver speed to get open. Every pro we have talked to had made this line roughly Los Angeles -1 before the line was released. In fact, the majority of bookmakers opened that exact line. The reason this line moved is that if you wanted to bet the Patriots you wanted to make sure you got it before it hit the key number of three. If you want to bet the Rams there is no reason to place a bet when the line continued to rise. That is why 80% of the bets and money have come in on the Patriots. All the Rams money is still out there waiting for the key number of three, and if it doesn’t show, those bettors will be happy to play what they rated as the favorite getting plus money. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS MONEY LINE Other ways we attacked this game: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser Los Angeles +8 1/2 Over 50 1/2 All props will be from the current lines at The Westgate Sports Book in Las Vegas in rotation order You should be able to do better shopping these numbers Props 10060 No safety -900 10084 No defensive or special teams touchdown -240 Neither team had a punt blocked this season Teams combined to allow just one return of any kind all season 10164 James White receiving yards Under 53 1/2 -110 10168 James White receptions Under 6 -130 10184 Julian Edelman receiving yards Under 82 1/2 -110 10305 Jared Goff pass completions Over 24 -110 10351 Todd Gurley receptions Over 3 1/2 +120 10354 CJ Anderson rushing yards Under 43.5 -110 10360 CJ Anderson score a touchdown No -180 10382 Brandin Cooks receiving yards Under 72 1/2 -110 10397 Josh Reynolds receptions Over 3 1/2 +110 10504 Jared Goff more completions +2 1/2-110 10536 Rams more first downs +1 1/2 -110 66016 No missed extra point -340 These two kickers combined for 84 of 86 extra points and 40 of 40 on field goals of 39 or less yards. Over/Under is 6.25 touchdowns 66020 Total quarterback sacks Under 3 1/2 +110 |
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02-02-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
507 Milwaukee at Washington The Bucks have been outstanding in seeking revenge for an in season loss. Last game out they kept the winners coming with a 105-92 upset of the Raptors. Milwaukee lost to Washington 113-106 on January 11th. WE will back the best team in the east against a disappointing Wizards squad. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-01-19 | Yale +1.5 v. Harvard | Top | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
857 Yale at Harvard Yale has won 11 of 12 as of late with the only loss coming on the road at Duke. The visitor should dominate at the rim shooting 67.7% on 40.2% of the teams shots. Harvard permits 95% shooting on dunks, and Yale averages 10.7% of their shots taken at that spot. Yale defends the 3 very well allowing only 31% shooting from long range, while Harvard takes a whopping 42.6% of its shots from downtown. PLAY YALE |
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01-30-19 | Illinois v. Minnesota -6 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
822 Illinois at Minnesota The Fighting Illini spanked the Gophers at home 95-68 two weeks ago. That’s one of two wins for Illinois in the past nine games. Minnesota is 11-1 straight up at home on the season. The host has a huge edge at the rim, attempting 42.8% of its shots there, while Illinois allows 66.3% from the field in that area. The Gophers force the opposition to shoot 29.8% of its shots in a low efficiency area of the court, and the Illini only shoot 30.5% from the area in front of the arc and outside the paint.Minnesota gains its revenge in a big way here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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01-29-19 | Nevada -9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 87-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
639 Nevada at UNLV The Rebels just aren’t a good basketball team. The only reason it has gotten off to a decent start is because UNLV played the worst teams early in the schedule. This is a team that allows opponents to take 40.3% of its shots at the rim. Nevada shoots 67% at the rim on the season, so the Wolfpack should get any shot near the basket it wants. Nevada permits 41.7% of opponent shots behind the arc, but UNLV isn’t that accurate from long distance. We would much rather have a team that can dominate inside, as opposed to a team that would need a hot game from distance to be competitive. This is also a major revenge game for the Wolfpack who lost to the Rebels in a college football upset this year. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-28-19 | Duke -14 v. Notre Dame | Top | 83-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
851 Duke at Notre Dame Irish have dropped four straight and 6 of 7 as it hosts the most talented team in the country. This is a terrible matchup for Notre Dame who attempts 44.4% of its shots behind the arc. Duke holds the opposition to just 28.9% accuracy from downtown. Duke on the other hand takes 16.6% of its attempts on dunks and 44.3% overall at the rim. Once again, bad matchup for the Irish. PLAY DUKE |
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01-27-19 | Washington State v. Oregon OVER 144 | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
839 Washington State at Oregon We expect this one to be a shootout. The Cougars have permitted 90, 88, 92 and 85 points on the road the past four games, all in conference. Oregon is coming off its second lowest offensive output of the season. The Cougars shoot 43.9% on its shots from behind the arc, while Oregon allows teams to take 47% of its shots from 3 point land. That means long shot attempts a plenty for Washington State. Neither team forces opponents to shoot between the rim and the arc, which traditionally is the least effective offensive shots. Therefore both teams will be able to attack the basket and dish to waiting 3 point shooters. PLAY OVER |