Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
706 Indiana at Cleveland Originally from Cleveland we have watched virtually every Cavaliers game since LeBron was a rookie. We know his tendencies, his body language and when he’s coming to play or likely not to play well. This here is a LeBron game. Elite players off an embarrassing performance rebound well the next game. Teams losing by 30 or more points are 5-0 ATS the following game as a favorite. PLAY CLEVELAND |
|||||||
04-28-18 | White Sox +123 v. Royals | Top | 8-0 | Win | 123 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
931 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Fulmer & Oaks We admit Carson Fulmer has been a major disappointment but he does have a high prospect pedigree. Still, how are the White Sox the underdog here. Chicago is 5-6 on the season away from home and have owned the Royals in the early going. Kansas City is 1-11 at home and 1-14 vs right handed pitchers. The Sox have the pitching edge in our opinion also as Trevor Oaks is making his MLB debut. This line is all based on Fulmer and his horrendous stats. But he’s a much better pitcher than what he has shown. Give us the White Sox in this afternoon affair. PLAY CHICAGO FIRST GAME OF DOUBLEHEADER |
|||||||
04-27-18 | Rockies v. Marlins +125 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
960 Colorado at Miami Anderson & Urena We haven’t backed the Marlins yet this season but the team can be bet on in the right circumstances. Tonight we get to go against Anderson who is actually a better pitcher at Door Field than on the road. We won on him as a nice dog against the Cubs last time out, but the value goes against him on Friday. Not only do we play against a pitching favorite in a bad role, we also get to go against a very weak offense when not taking advantage of elevation. We have the Miami offense rated 10% better than Colorado here and the bullpens virtually equal. Wrong team favored here at the Marlins build off its recent success. PLAY MIAMI |
|||||||
04-27-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -116 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
966 Detroit at Baltimore Fiers & Tillman In handicapping sports you want to be ahead of the curve when it comes to analyzing teams and players. Chris Tillman has been simply terrible since returning from major surgery and the line shows that as he is a small favorite. Despite the game being played in Baltimore and one of the worst teams in the league being the opposition. But we watched Tillman his last start vs Cleveland, and he looked a lot better than the numbers suggest. Even the Orioles play by play man talked about that outing as being the best he has had coming off injury. He had swing and miss stuff but he left a couple pitches right over the plate and the Indians took advantage. Right now we are getting a pitcher with an excellent history before the injury, who is now starting to play to previous form. We’re not a fan of Mike Fiers and this Baltimore offense rates 16% better than the Tigers. Short number to lay here with a pitcher we can find value on. PLAY BALTIMORE |
|||||||
04-26-18 | White Sox +146 v. Royals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 146 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
917 Chicago WS at Kansas City Giolito & Junis Two bad teams battle Thursday night. Giolito has been considered one of the elite pitchers in the minors for years. But injuries and bad performances at the major league level have reduced that enthusiasm. While we still have concerns about his ability, this line is just way too high not to back this young White Sox team. We’ve said in the past that we like Jake Junis, but there are some major regression numbers we can’t ignore. His ERA is a full two runs lower than his FIP, and his BABIP is just .169. League average is in the .300 range. No way this bad Kansas City team should be in this price range against anyone. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
|||||||
04-25-18 | Brewers -111 v. Royals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
979 Milwaukee at Kansas City Chacin & Hammel Rare chance to bet against one of the worst teams in baseball in this price range. The Royals are 5-16 on the season and just 1-8 at home. This is a team that is every bit as bad as what it was projected to be. Jason Hammel is 16% worse than an average big league pitcher, and the bullpen is 13% worst than league average. Milwaukee is a division leading 15-9 on the year including 7-3 on the road. Much better team here and the price is exceptionally low. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
|||||||
04-24-18 | A's -110 v. Rangers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
921 Oakland at Texas Triggs & Hamels We are looking for a big season out of Andrew Triggs, and we see Cole Hamels continuing his fall from a one time elite pitcher. The A’s offense has been pounding and the Rangers lineup is loaded with Quad A players. Oakland is simply the better team across the board. PLAY OAKLAND |
|||||||
04-24-18 | Twins +137 v. Yankees | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
915 Minnesota at NY Yankees Berrios & Sabathia We grade Berrios 13% better than CC which gives us a nice underdog value play on a starter looking to go deep into this game. He’s well rested after that big start in Puerto Rico. The Yankees are the better team but this matchup favors the Twins. PLAY MINNESOTA |
|||||||
04-24-18 | Cubs +109 v. Indians | Top | 10-3 | Win | 109 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
925 Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Chatwood & Tomlin Not a fan of either of these starters but we trust the Cubs offense more than the Tribe’s in this contest. Chicago’s scoring unit is 11% better than Cleveland’s yet the Indians are made the favorite here. PLAY CHICAGO |
|||||||
04-23-18 | Angels +182 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 182 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
965 LA Angels at Houston The Angels have been terrific on the road this season, and Tyler Skaggs has finally shown some upside after a disappointing early career. Houston just had a field day against the worst pitching staff in the American League, as the White Sox are a train wreck right now. So the champs return home fat and happy after beating up a Quad A pitching staff, and now must face a group looking to make the postseason. While we agree the Astros should be favored, this line is simply too high. PLAY LA ANGELS |
|||||||
04-22-18 | Warriors -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
503 Golden State at San Antonio What was once a very promising season for the Spurs has really turned into a complete waste of a year. The team and its best player are at a standstill, as Leonard continues to sit when the team needs him most. Now San Antonio sits at 0-3 in this series and has to beat the defending champs four straight in order to advance. Because of the yearly high expectations for the Spurs we can’t see San Antonio getting overly excited to have to travel back to Oakland after a victory here. Fading 0-3 teams has been very profitable, doing so against a veteran team with higher expectations is a given. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
|||||||
04-21-18 | Cubs v. Rockies +126 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 126 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
960 Chicago at Colorado Darvish & Anderson This isn’t the same Yu Darvish that we are accustomed to seeing. Let’s break down his last half a season. Darvish last 7 starts in 2017 regular season 37.2 IP 17 ER. In four postseason games 14.2 IP 10 ER. In 3 2018 starts 15 IP 10 ER. Last 14 starts overall 67.1 IP 37 ER 4.96 ERA. That’s not what the Cubs paid him the big money for. Tyler Anderson since 2016 at home. 3.00 ERA in 2016. 4.14 ERA in 2017. 3.00 ERA in 2018. This is a hurler that knows how to pitch in this ballpark. We can take advantage of the wrong team being favored here. PLAY COLORADO |
|||||||
04-20-18 | Twins v. Rays -122 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
922 Minnesota at Tampa Bay Lynn & Archer Possible letdown here for the Twins who return to the states after highly publicized Puerto Rico trip with the Indians. Packed houses and constantly cheering fans one minute, Tampa Bay disinterest the next. Archer has been off his game in the early going but he’s one of the elite pitchers in the Junior Circuit. We rate him 40% higher than Lance Lynn which is about as much of a differential you will ever see in this price range. Schedule favors the Rays and we expect the Twins to be a bit tired from that 16 inning game. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 7 | Top | 0-7 | Push | 0 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
951 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Tailon & Arrieta James Tailon has been very fortunate with runners on base, as well as BABIP this season. He has been good but not nearly as good as his numbers would suggest. Jake Arrieta has been fortunate as well but our main reason to expect regression is in this strikeout rate. His numbers really dropped off last year and his fastball speed isn’t any better this season. This total is priced for two elite pitchers, and while both are above average neither is in that elite category. PLAY OVER |
|||||||
04-18-18 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
517 Indiana at Cleveland The Pacers have played the Cavaliers as well as anyone this year, and have a good chance to win this series outright. Being from Cleveland we watch every Cavaliers game and Cleveland has severe problems in this series. There was no doubt Indiana was the better team in the opener, and Cleveland still has a major weakness inside. The Pacers are the quicker team and the Cavs have struggled against youth all season. This line is built on reputation and not on the actual skills of the players. PLAY INDIANA |
|||||||
04-17-18 | Reds +141 v. Brewers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
957 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Romano & Guerra While the Reds enter play with the worst record in the league, this team is much better than the raw stats would indicate. Sal Romano is one of the Reds young starting group with a very nice upside. We have he and Guerra rated virtually equal in this matchup tonight. Road divisional dogs are a terrific subset in baseball handicapping and we just don’t trust Guerra here. He started the year in the minors as Milwaukee had lost faith in him. Now after one good outing he’s expected to regain past form. We’re not buying it as the Reds are the value team here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
|||||||
04-16-18 | Marlins v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
924 Miami at NY Yankees Smith & Severino While Caleb Smith is ranked better than many think he has his hands full on the road today in New York. He’s 24% worse than Severino and the Miami bullpen is 26% worse. Offensively the Marlins are 22% worse and Miami can’t compare in power with the Yankees. We expect this to be a non-competitive game so we have no problems laying the 1 1/2 runs here with the host. PLAY NY YANKEES RUN LINE |
|||||||
04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
26 Las Vegas at Los Angeles The first two games have been defensive struggles with both goalies doing outstanding work. Neither team is able to get off many clean shots as the defenses have been swarming. In almost eight full periods these two have combined for a total of four goals. When playing five on five the offenses have been dominated. No reason to expect anything different here. PLAY UNDER |
|||||||
04-14-18 | Giants v. Padres -107 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
912 San Francisco at San Diego Holland & Richard Anytime we get a chance to play against Derek Holland at a decent price we are going to take it. He was once a productive major league starter but injuries and DL stints have him hanging on to a job by a thread. Because the top three San Francisco starters are all injured we may get a long look at him in the rotation, which is good for our bankrolls. The starting and relief edges for the Padres are strong, and the offense is better than it has shown thus far. This line should be significantly higher. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
|||||||
04-13-18 | Kings v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
56 Los Angeles at Las Vegas Aware that there has been a Kings suspension today for a violent hit in the first game. But still feel this is going to be another major defensive game. Neither team had many fast break scoring chances in the opener, as both squad played terrific defense. The goalies were also outstanding as we have two of the league’s elite in this series. With LA shutting down the Vegas speed we look for another tight defensive effort. PLAY UNDER |
|||||||
04-12-18 | Blue Jackets +145 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
13 Columbus at Washington We like the Blue Jackets to win this series as an underdog, therefore of course we like them here at plus money in the opener. The goalie edge in this one for us goes to Bobrovsky, and we can’t trust the Captals. Washington continues to underperform expectations and the noose is getting tighter on this team. Columbus will play free an easy while all the pressure will be on the host. PLAY COLUMBUS |
|||||||
04-03-18 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 222 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
703 Toronto at Cleveland The Cavs have had no answer for this Raptors offense. Toronto has scored 133 and 129 points in the first two meetings. While the Cleveland defense has gotten better the slashing Raptors have taken advantage of the Cleveland weakness, an inside defensive presence. Every game is important for Cleveland right now as it looks to hold onto the third seed in the east. Therefore since the team can’t slow down the Raptors, we expect LeBron and company to try to match them offensively, resulting in a high scoring contest. PLAY OVER |
|||||||
03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
812 Loyola Chicago & Michigan Heard some quotes from other coaches who made the final four as surprise teams. They all said that the situation is totally different from anything these teams have seen in the past. Because of all the hoopla all the timing of a regular season game goes out the window. Not enough time for a normal shoot around, in and out of the locker room in less time than normal, stadium views as opposed to regular 20,000 seat or less dimensions. Loyola will be going through that for the first time today, while the other three teams have been through it before. On the court Michigan has the athletes to really give the Ramblers trouble. This will be the first time in the tournament in which Loyola will be at a defensive disadvantage. PLAY MICHIGAN |
|||||||
03-30-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
517 LA Clippers at Portland The road team has won outright all three meetings this season. The Clippers enter this game with double home loss revenge, but the defense is playing much better than the last time these two met two weeks ago. LA isn’t the most talented team in the league but you always seem to get a quality contest from this club. Portland has been all the rage for those looking to play on the hot team. The Blazers have won 17 of 21 games entering tonight. But we went against this team last time out with Memphis and Portland was beaten outright. We look to go against the overrated Blazers again tonight. PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
|||||||
03-29-18 | Bulls v. Heat -13 | Top | 92-103 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
704 Chicago at Miami The Bulls are in full tank zone after losing its sixth straight game, a 32 point defeat at Houston. Our clients took advantage of Chicago in that contest and we go right back to the well here. This is the first of a back to back for the Bulls, as it plays in Orlando tomorrow. A far easier team to beat than this Heat squad who is fighting for the playoffs. Miami is on a 10-6 straight up run including victories over Philadelphia twice, Washington and Cleveland. The Heat are well rested having not played a back to back game since March sixth. Miami is also off tomorrow before facing Brooklyn, Atlanta twice and New York. This is the time for the Heat to pad its resume. PLAY MIAMI |
|||||||
03-27-18 | Bulls v. Rockets -13.5 | Top | 86-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
768 Chicago at Houston Rockets had yesterday off after back to back blowouts of Atlanta and New Orleans. Houston plays again on Friday against Phoenix but has the next two days off. The Beard is out tonight which has driven the line down. But the numbers show that with Paul on the floor without him the team is only one point worse this season. Therefore the 3 1/2 point move is simply too much. Granted, against a good team it would make much more of a difference, but tonight the Rockets play the tanking Bulls. Chicago has lost four straight games by double digits, but three of those teams aren’t going to the playoffs. Houston has the best record in the league. We expect the Rockets to run up the score going deep on the bench for late game production. PLAY HOUSTON |
|||||||
03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
721 Duke & Kansas The Blue Devils have been the best team in the country since going to a zone defense midway through the season. Duke has now held 12 straight teams to under 75 points. Duke allows just 46.2% effective field goals on the season. This team always recruits deadly shooters, and now with the team buying into the defensive end this team is extremely tough to beat. Kansas has won 11 of 12 heading into this contest, with the lone loss coming against Oklahoma State. But Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson has been one of the easiest roads in the tourney. We expect this line to climb, therefore lets lock in this number now on what we consider the clearly better team. PLAY DUKE |
|||||||
03-25-18 | Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
719 Texas Tech & Villanova Sharp books are trending toward the underdog here and we fully agree. Tech has one of the best effective field goal defenses in the country at 46.7%, and Villanova has been shooting unworldly in the tournament as of late. Since the Big 12 Tournament nobody has surpassed 69 points on this team. Villanova was able to shoot over the West Virginia press, but we can’t expect those type of numbers again here. This line is just too high. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
|||||||
03-24-18 | Florida State +4 v. Michigan | Top | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
515 Florida State & Michigan Smart money is on the Seminoles as the sharper books are lowering the number. We fully agree with that assessment. We only have these teams ranked 16 places apart in our power ratings, not nearly the difference to have a line this high. Florida State has played the better defense and faced a tougher schedule of Missouri, Xavier and Gonzaga. Michigan is coming off a blowout win over Texas A&M where the team just couldn’t miss from the field. That result has pushed this line up at least two points from where it deserves to be. Another reason for the inflated line is that the Wolverines are on a 12 game winning streak. Handicapping 101 tells you that you lose value on a streaking team as others blindly play on a hot squad. Right now 71% of the bets have come in on the favorite, yet the line is dropping. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
|||||||
03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 132.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
876 Syracuse & Duke This is a very bad matchup for the Orangemen. Here we have two zone defenses with Duke switching to the zone half way through the season. In order to beat the zone you need to penetrate and dish. That would mean the ability to hit 3 point shots. Unfortunately for Syracuse the team has the worst 3 point shooting out of the Sweet 16 entrants at 31.7%. Duke only allows 31.9% from behind the arc. The Orange are also the slowest paced team, so it will take as much time as possible to take a shot. Syracuse does a nice job from distance defensively allowing just 32.1% shooting. The total in this game is on the low side, but it’s not low enough. These teams met in late February and Duke won 60-44. We expect another similar score here. PLAY UNDER |
|||||||
03-22-18 | Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
813 Kansas State & Kentucky Many will overlook K State here based on facing Creighton and Maryland Baltimore County in the first two rounds. But this defense has been very good as of late with only Kansas and Oklahoma surpassing 67 points over the past five weeks. Kentucky enters this game having won 9 of 10 with the only loss coming at Florida. These Wildcats are peaking at tourney time which is a staple of this program. But wins over Davidson and Buffalo haven’t changed our minds on this squad. Kentucky has underperformed all year as opposed to prior editions, and we can’t see this team being a contender. With what is considered an easy slate to the final four we can see these young players buying into all the hype, taking these fellows Wildcats for granted. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
|||||||
03-20-18 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 215 | Top | 115-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
661 Detroit at Phoenix Now that the Pistons are virtually out of playoff contention we are seeing the Detroit defense pulling a no show. In 10 of the last 16 games opponents have reached 110 or more points. What was once a team strength has turn into a liability. Phoenix has been in tank mode for quite some time, especially on the defensive end. Here are the point totals allowed over the last eight games, 124, 116, 129, 122, 115, 125, 113 and 124 points. The Suns haven’t won two straight games since December, as the players are just running up and down the court to add to their stats. We expect this one to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
|||||||
03-18-18 | Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
720 Florida State & Xavier The Seminoles have staggered into the tournament having lost 6 of 11 games including the opening round win over Missouri. Three of those losses were to teams who didn’t make the Big Dance. Xavier only lost five games on the season, all to teams making the Big Dance. That includes two losses to Villanova and Providence. Better team with a cheap line. PLAY XAVIER |
|||||||
03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
538 Buffalo and Kentucky As much as we like the Bulls, and we had them in the opening round, the price is too cheap not to take the Wildcats here. The MAC has been terrible in the postseason whether it’s football or basketball. The teams just don’t match up to higher athletic teams. While Arizona struggled down the stretch of the season, the Wildcats are peaking at the right time. PLAY KENTUCKY |
|||||||
03-16-18 | Georgia State +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
881 Georgia State and Cincinnati The Panthers are a tough matchup for the Bearcats with their excellent zone defense. Georgia State allows an effective field goal percentage of 47.1%. Cincinnati struggles offensively when facing a zone. The Bearcats just played three games in three days with every contest being decided by 10 points or less. In 3 of the last 4 contests Cincinnati scored 62 points or less. Tough to lay this type of number in what is expected to be a low scoring contest. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
|||||||
03-13-18 | Long Island +6 v. Radford | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
543 LIU Brooklyn and Radford The Blackbirds of Brooklyn enter the dance with just an 18-16 record. But it ended the season and the conference tourney by winning 12 of 17. Only one of the losses was by double digits, so even in defeat this team was competitive. The Radford Highlanders have the better 22-12 record but the team actually allows a higher effective field percentage than it generates itself, 49.5% to 49.4%. Brooklyn on the other hand has a 52.3% to 50% advantage. Radford doesn’t deserve to be this type of favorite tonight. PLAY LIU BROOKLYN |
|||||||
03-08-18 | Celtics -2 v. Wolves | Top | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
655 Boston at Minnesota Now that the Celtics offense is coming around we have no problem backing this terrific defense in a likely win and cover situation. The Celts have been a money making machine with this young head coach in road games. Not only this year but in prior seasons. You always get a full effort from Boston on the road. While Minnesota is an up and coming team, we are not convinced this team can step up in class and beat a quality opponent. The number is well within our strike zone on the Celtics tonight. PLAY BOSTON |
|||||||
03-07-18 | Air Force +9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
591 Air Force at UNLV The Falcons have played much better ball as of late and this is always a tough team to beat this time of season. UNLV has been a major disappointment and despite playing at home we can’t see this team winning by a margin. Throw in the fact that this is an early start on a weekday, coupled with apathy from the home fans, and there will be little to no home court advantage. AIR FORCE |
|||||||
03-05-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -11 | Top | 98-100 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
710 Memphis at San Antonio The Spurs are 4-13 SU against top 10 teams, They are 11-20 against top 16 opponents. But San Antonio has been at its best against the lesser teams in the league. Now 26-7 against the bottom half of the league. Coming into this contest having won just once over the past seven games, you know Pop will have his team prepared. Memphis is in full tank mode right now having lost 13 straight. Pau Gasol is expected to miss tonights contest. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
|||||||
02-28-18 | Pelicans +5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
713 New Orleans at San Antonio The Pelicans enter this game having won six straight as Anthony Davis has played out of his mind as of late. What a difference a healthy Brow has made to this team. New Orleans beat San Antonio earlier in the season 107-90 at home. This is a confident bunch playing against a struggling Spurs squad. Despite the upset win in Cleveland the last time out, the Spurs have dropped 6 of 8 as of late. The only other victory came against the tanking Suns. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
|||||||
02-21-18 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
716 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State The Red Raiders just had a seven game winning streak broken at Baylor 59-57 in a tightly contested contest. Tech already beat Oklahoma State at home 75-70 and have Kansas on deck at home on Saturday. The Jayhawks have revenge on its mind from a 85-73 home loss earlier this year. So this is a tough spot here for the visitor. Oklahoma State has lost two straight and six of eight overall. It is coming off a 20 point loss at TCU, tied for its largest margin of defeat on the season. We back the home dog here. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
|||||||
02-13-18 | Cavs v. Thunder -2 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
508 Cleveland at Oklahoma City Don’t look now but all of a sudden all is right in Cleveland. Before the trade deadline Cleveland was +140 to win the Eastern Conference, now after exactly one game with the new players the Cavs are -110. All the talking heads are convinced Cleveland is now the clear team to beat in the East. Based on one game. We have to admit that surely was an impressive contest, but isn’t that a major stretch based on one game? Keep in mind Boston had lost two of three before that game, including an outright loss to Indiana at home. This is the third straight road game for the Cavs, and they are 5-18 ATS the last two years on the road vs the Western Conference. The last time Cleveland played Oklahoma City the Thunder scored 148 points. Look for Cleveland to struggle a bit tonight. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
|||||||
02-12-18 | Lightning +105 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
51 Tampa Bay at Toronto Big game for both these teams as Tampa Bay now only leads the Maple Leafs by eight points in the division. The Lightning have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, and have been a terrific road team all season. Toronto has been on a nice run but the Lightning are the superior team. A great deal of that is focused on the goaltenders as we much prefer Vasilevskiy to Anderson. Nice price here for the visitor as everyone buys into the must win situation from the host. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
02-09-18 | Blazers v. Kings +5.5 | Top | 118-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
818 Portland at Sacramento The Blazers are playing its 11th straight game in a different city tonight when it travels to Sacramento. It doesn’t help that Portland had to go to overtime last night to beat Charlotte. This is also the fifth game in eight days for the visitor. Sacramento on the other hand finishes off a four game home stand. The Kings haven’t left Sacramento for a game since January 30th. The Kings enter play having won four of its last seven games. This is a terrific spot for Sacramento to keep that streak alive. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
|||||||
02-06-18 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
554 Nebraska at Minnesota Huskers have been a major money makers this year posting a 17-6 spread mark. Nebraska has won three straight and enters tonight at 8-4 in Big 10 play. It beat Minnesota 78-68 at home in its earlier meeting. Minnesota is just 14-11 overall and 3-9 in conference. It enters this game having lost 8 of its last 9 games. Yet the line has moved from Minnesota -1 to -3.5, despite the fact that 68% of the bets and money have been on the underdog. Big money is on the host and we agree as fading early season money makers at this point of the season is the way to go. PLAY MINNESOTA |
|||||||
01-30-18 | Ball State +7 v. Toledo | Top | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
533 Ball State at Toledo The Cardinal are 3-7 SU on the road this year and the Rockets enter play here having won seven straight games. Yet the early money has been on the road dog, and we agree. Despite the 15-6 overall mark and 7-1 record in the MAC, we view this Rockets team as overrated. Toledo just blew out Bowling Green by 26 last time out, so we can see this team fat and happy here. But keep in mind most of the success for the Rockets has been on the road. We will follow the line move and back the Cardinals. PLAY BALL STATE |
|||||||
01-27-18 | Georgetown +12 v. Creighton | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
641 Georgetown at Creighton The Hoyas played one of the easiest schedules in the country before league play started, and came into Big East play totally overrated. As expected Georgetown is now 3-6 in league play, having just dropped 2 of 3 at home. Now back on the road this team finally shows some betting value. Creighton is 16-5 on the season and undefeated on this home court. It already beat the Hoyas by 24 in Georgetown. Up on deck? The #1 Villanova Wildcats. Massive lookahead spot here for the host. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
|||||||
01-26-18 | Pacers +6 v. Cavs | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
603 Indiana at Cleveland Why go away from something that has been so successful? The Cavaliers stink right now and the betting public has been slow to react. This line is simply too high right now for a team playing without any heart. The only consistent player over the last month is Wade, and he’s not with the team today because of a personal problem. Indiana has won all three meetings this season and have a 7-3 record as of late against the entire league. The Pacers are 19-5 this season when hitting at least 10 3 pointers a game. Against the Cavs they have made 16, 15 and 10 in the previous meetings. Cleveland has been terrible defending the perimeter all season. PLAY INDIANA |
|||||||
01-18-18 | Pepperdine +10.5 v. Pacific | Top | 78-92 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
563 Pepperdine at Pacific The Waves have been bad this season with an 0-6 conference record and just 3-15 overall. It’s riding a nine game losing streak entering this contest, having lost by double digits in four straight. But as Lee Corso would say “Not so Fast”. Over the last five games the Wave have played teams with a combined 71-23 record. Tonights opponent is just 9-10 on the year. The Tigers are off three straight victories and face three heavyweights after this contest. St Mary, San Francisco and BYU. Terrible spot for the host while the visitor drops down in class. PLAY PEPPERDINE |
|||||||
01-17-18 | Heat +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
709 Miami at Milwaukee Quick revenge for the Bucks here after losing to Miami 97-79 on the road just three days ago. But in looking over the Milwaukee schedule we see 11 of the last 12 games being played against current playoff squads, with another on deck. Having to get up every single game to play the best teams in the league is a chore. Miami is now 12-5 SU off a SU loss this season. They lost at Chicago Monday after winning seven straight games. Coincidently we had Miami in that contest, our only loss in any sport this week. But we have the Heat being the slightly better team here and we prefer the Miami coaching staff which has done a terrific job the last full year here in Miami. The Heat are on a 6-2 SU run on the road and we really like the way this team is playing. PLAY MIAMI |
|||||||
01-16-18 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -5.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
536 Drake at Northern Iowa Many will look at this game and see the 5-1 in conference Bulldogs catching points at the 1-5 Panthers as a lock. But there is much more than wins and losses in handicapping sports. Drake is just 11-8 on the season, while Northern Iowa is 9-9. But the Panthers faced the likes of North Carolina, NC State, Villanova, UNLV, Texas Arlington, Iowa State and Xavier. The coaching staff made a surprising move last time out putting a talented freshman in the starting lineup at center, and dropping its leading scorer to the bench. For a coach to do such a thing tells us that its the right move to spark this squad. Northern Iowa in turn beat Valparaiso 81-76, breaking a seven game losing streak. Now with its back against the wall we expect these Panthers to be on the prowl. Our numbers show the Panthers to be 48 places better than the Bulldogs, and because of the way these two started the conference season the line is cheap. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
305 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh The last time these two met the Jaguars dominated as Big Ben had a career worst game. So what has changed since that meeting? Not enough to make us want to back the Steelers here. In fact, because of the Brown injury Jacksonville should be better able to take advantage of the Steelers here. Jacksonville has a terrific pass defense and yet the Steelers brain trust tried to pass all over it in the first meeting. The correct game plan for Pittsburgh would be to run the ball as much as possible. But are they perceptive enough to stick with it through the entire game? We don’t believe so, as this team is too accustomed to having its way through the air. And that plays right into the hands of the touchdown underdog. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
|||||||
01-12-18 | Cavs v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
802 Cleveland at Indiana The Cavaliers have allowed its three highest point totals in the last three games. It has Golden State on deck and have lost to Indiana both times it faced the Pacers this year. Cleveland ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the offense is still trying to adjust with new players in new roles. The Pacers are finishing four game home stand after beating Chicago and Milwaukee, before losing to the Heat last night. With six straight games against Western Conference foes on deck, this is the game the Pacers have circled. PLAY INDIANA |
|||||||
01-11-18 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 99-133 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
504 Cleveland at Toronto The Cavs are off a terrible defensive game at Minnesota, and the Raptors are without two of its best players. The current line is saying that those differences are worth 10 1/2 points to the spread, which is ridiculous. Cleveland has been bad defensively all season and now with Thomas in the lineup the numbers should get worse, not better. With Ibaka and Lowry out of the lineup the numbers actually get better for Toronto. Sure its a small sample size, and nobody is saying the team is better without these two. But the loss isn’t nearly as drastic as this line suggests. Throw in the fact that the Raptors have playoff revenge against the Cavaliers, and we have a solid play on the host here. PLAY TORONTO |
|||||||
01-10-18 | UNLV v. Air Force +9.5 | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
780 Unlv at Air Force The Rebels haven’t won at Air Force since 2014 and were crushed in this building a year ago. Because off all the instability in the program virtually all the players will be playing here for the first time tonight. UNLV likes to get out and run, which is why it was so successful early on in non-conference action. The Rebels played a vast majority of its games at home. Now that conference play has started the opposition isn’t letting the Rebels show its athleticism. Air Force is always tough at home and enters play tonight 0-3 in the Mountain west Conference. This is a club that is hard to prepare for because of the style of play it uses. This line is way too high for a struggling Rebels team to lay. PLAY AIR FORCE |
|||||||
01-08-18 | Cavs v. Wolves OVER 222 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
705 Cleveland at Minnesota The Cavaliers are scoring 129 points per game with Isiah Thomas in the lineup. The offense is virtually unstoppable and the bench players are really playing well offensively. The problem is a defense that was originally bad, but is even worse with Thomas on the floor. Tonight both teams have many options to take advantage of offensively, as the Cavs have no rim protector, and the Wolves are terrific attacking the basket. The Anthony-Towns and Love matchup should provide huge numbers offensively. The number is high for a reason, but not high enough. PLAY OVER |
|||||||
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
102 Tennessee at Kansas City We want no part of the Titans today playing on the road. There were two teams in the playoffs that were outscored in the regular season, Buffalo and Tennessee. Mariota has been a turnover machine, especially on the road. Kansas City doesn’t turn the ball over and wins with defense and running the ball. Smith has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league this season by quarterback rating. He’s been able to extend the field by throwing longer passes this season. This line is being held down somewhat by the Chiefs prior playoff failures. While that may be the case in following weeks it’s not going to prevent KC in this matchup. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
|||||||
12-30-17 | Dayton -3 v. Duquesne | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
563 Dayton at Duquesne The Flyers have played the 93rd best strength of schedule in the country. Duquesne has played the 342nd. Dayton is 6-6 on the season while the Dukes are 9-4. This is a major step up in class for the host while Dayton has already faced the likes of Hofstra, Auburn, Mississippi State, Penn and St Mary’s. The Flyers are the superior team and have the better ball movement. They will find many open shots in this contest. PLAY DAYTON |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
128 Seattle at Dallas The Seahawks have scored a combined 17 first half points over the last four games. They continually play from behind because the defense is battered and bruised. It’s just not the same healthy defense that has been so dominant the past few seasons. The loss to the Rams last week was totally embarrassment, which you would expect a rebound from. But keep in mind that this is a team that entered the season expecting to go deep into the playoffs. Now it’s virtually shutout of the postseason. What type of effort will the players give knowing it has nothing to play for. Dallas gets Zeke back today and other than a quarterback he’s the most valuable skill position player in the league. In his last six games before the suspension the Boys scored 28, 33, 40, 31, 30 and 28 points. With him out of the lineup Dallas averaged 18.3 ppg. The defense has held the opposition to 17, 10 and 14 points the past three weeks. This is a cheap number for the Cowboys. PLAY DALLAS |
|||||||
12-19-17 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia -5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
528 Georgia Tech at Georgia The Yellow Jackets come into this rivalry game with a 5-4 record. But the victories have come against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Texas Pan American, North Texas, Florida A&M and Northwestern by a single point. Georgia Tech has played just once away from home, a three point loss at Wofford. Georgia has started the year playing the much tougher schedule and have a 7-2 record to show for it. Coming off a road favorite loss at Massachusetts, we can imagine this club looked past the Minutemen and paid for it. Let’s lay it with the better team on Tuesday. PLAY GEORGIA |
|||||||
12-18-17 | Blue Jackets +115 v. Bruins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
5 Columbus at Boston The Bruins are starting a 7 game in 11 day stretch. So most feel this is a must win game for the host. Especially as Boston plays on the road tomorrow. But despite the need the value is on the visitor here. Columbus is outplaying the opposition but it hasn’t resulted in victories. There is a tremendous amount of luck in hockey, which has been proven by those who know much more than I. It’s the highest variance major sport. Which is why we can gran Columbus here at a plus price. PLAY COLUMBUS |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
306 LA Chargers at Kansas City The Chargers have dropped seven straight games to Kansas City, yet are now a slight favorite on the road. While this team has won 7 of 9 games, those wins came against questionable opposition. Victories against the Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Browns and Redskins. Very likely all teams that will not make the playoffs. Kansas City on the other hand has beaten the likes of the Patriots, Eagles and these very same Chargers by a score of 24-10 on the road. The better team at home in a basically pick ‘em game? Sign us up. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 36 m | Show |
209 Middle Tennessee State & Arkansas State in Montgomery, Alabama Brent Stockstill has been a stud for the Blue Raiders when he has been healthy. That’s where we find the Middle Tennessee signal caller on Saturday. With the son of the coach behind center we expect big things from this squad. Middle Tennessee has moved the ball well against this level of competition. The problem has been first half turnovers. Down 13 turnovers in the first half of games despite producing an 8-4 yards per play advantage. Arkansas State just lost the conference title to Troy 32-25. That was the game this team wanted, especially playing at home. The Sun Belt is the lowest rated conference in the country, yet the Red Wolves have been installed as the favorite here. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State has a +27 explosive play margin on the season, while Arkansas State sits at +10. Better team from the better conference as an underdog. Can’t beat that combination. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
114 Oakland at Kansas City Despite winning 3 of its last 4 games we aren’t buying into the Raiders who enter this contest having played the easiest schedule in the league. Wins over the Giants, Broncos and Dolphins aren’t much to write home about. The last time these two met was a Thursday Night Football win for the Raiders at home 31-30. The host on these early week games has a sizable advantage so once again we found the Raiders in a favorable position. Now with Kansas City entering this game having lost 6 of 7, we get to back the better team with the far better coach at a discount. With three straight home games for the Chiefs Kansas City can take advantage of a weak schedule down the stretch. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
|||||||
12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
102 New Orleans at Atlanta The last four years the team that won the first game of this series also won the second game. This should be easy. Until you realize there are only four weeks left in the season and these two have yet to meet this year. A strange scheduling situation indeed. The Saints have been terrific this year and just knocked off Carolina for the season sweep. New Orleans has won 9 of 10 games heading into this matchup. But the short week does bring some problems even though the trip is short to Atlanta. The Saints now have a virtual two game lead on second place Carolina after winning the tie breaker. New Orleans still has the Jets and Bucs on the schedule, so beating Atlanta here isn’t a priority. The Falcons on the other hand trail the Saints by two full games, and a loss here would be devastating if a division title is the goal. Even for a wild card this is a game Atlanta has to have. Off a home loss to Minnesota we are catching the host with more on the line here. This is also the third straight home game for the Falcons. With Seattle at 8-4 and Carolina also 8-4, this team simply cannot fall to 7-6 and make the postseason. It’s all in for the host and we will join them. PLAY ATLANTA |
|||||||
12-05-17 | Wild +120 v. Kings | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
69 Minnesota at Los Angeles Nice scheduling spot for the Wild who enter play on an 8-3-1 run. The Kings get their full attention tonight as the Wild has the next two days off before taking on Anaheim. LA is off a four game east coast sweep, so the team returns home fat and happy. It’s also their fourth game in six nights. PLAY MINNESOTA |
|||||||
11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 113-91 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
704 Cleveland at Philadelphia The Cavaliers enter here on a seven game winning streak, but we expect that run to end tonight. Cleveland has had a hard time matching up to young teams with a lot of speed this year, as Cleveland is the oldest squad in the league. This team has a 12-7 record against the 26th ranked schedule. The Cavs have taken advantage of playing the fifth easiest schedule in the league. Philadelphia on the other hand has an 11-7 record facing the hardest schedule in the league. The Sixers have already played Golden State twice, Boston, Toronto and Houston twice. The Sixers are great on the boards and are tough to stop inside offensively. The big weakness for the Cars is defending the paint. Major mismatch for the Sixers here who treat this like a playoff game tonight. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Clemson v. South Carolina +13.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
198 Clemson at South Carolina We’ve had this game circled all season just like the homesteading Gamecocks. We love Dabo Swinney and everything he stands for, but it’s a miracle how well this team has done with such a drop-off in talent. Despite having the better personnel in a vast majority of games, the Tigers have only started three first half drives in opponent territory. The defense just isn’t the same as in past editions. While very good it’s not excellent as it was a year ago. As for the key stat of explosive plays, Clemson is +6 on the season. The worst for all the teams considered to be in the running for the Final Four. South Carolina is +8 on the season in explosive plays and it has eight drives starting in opponent territory in the first half. Will Muschamp has done an outstanding job in his second year in Columbia. While the stats don’t always show it, this team finds ways to win. This is a huge rivalry in the state of South Carolina. Last year Clemson pummeled the Gamecocks 56-7. You know this game has been circled and now South Carolina has the personnel to take this to the wire. An outright upset would not surprise. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Iowa State +3 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
163 Iowa State at Kansas State Really like the job Matt Campbell has done here in his second season. He took over a program that was 3-9, 2-10 and 3-9 the previous three seasons. In just his second year the Cyclones had improved so much there was talk of the Big 12 Championship going through Ames. But after losses to West Virginia by 4 and Oklahoma State by 7 this team has become an afterthought. Not in our eyes as we really like the situation and the matchup here. Let’s take a look at how the Cyclones have done on the road this year. A 41-14 win at Akron who is playing in the MAC Championship game. A 38-31 win at Oklahoma, a team likely to play for the National Championship. A 31-13 win at Texas A&M, a 23-13 win at Baylor and a 20-16 loss at West Virginia. That’s a pretty good road season by anyones standards. Kansas State is exactly even in explosive plays this year, Iowa State is +15. The Wildcats haven’t has a bye since September 23rd, and are coming off three straight games that were get wrenching. A 42-35 overtime win at Texas Tech, a 28-23 loss hosting West Virginia, and a 45-40 upset victory at Oklahoma State last week. K State was a 19 1/2 point underdog in that contest. Can’t expect a full tank of gas out of the host here, who really shouldn’t be favored. PLAY IOWA STATE |
|||||||
11-22-17 | Clippers -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
507 LA Clippers at Atlanta The Clippers have lost 9 straight games and finish off the road trip at Atlanta and Sacramento. A nice pair to get right against. While LA enters this contest with a 5-11 record, the nine straight losses have come against all teams expected to be in playoff contention. The Hawks, not so much. Atlanta is just 3-14 on the year. And have played about how you would expect from a team that was gutted in the off-season. The Hawks have one victory at home all year and that was against equally inept Sacramento. The Clippers have far better talent here and get back in the win column on Wednesday. PLAY LA CLIPPERS |
|||||||
11-21-17 | Kent State +15 v. Akron | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
101 Kent State at Akron This is the biggest rival for each of these programs as the campuses are roughly 20 miles from each other. The Golden Flashes have had a disappointing season but a season ending win over its rival would be a big boost to the offseason morale. Especially because it would likely keep Akron out of the MAC title game. Akron really pulled off a shocker last week beating Ohio U as a 15 point home underdog. That was after the Bobcats pounded Toledo the week before. We expect this Zips team to look more like the team that enters here with a 5-5 SU record in FBS games this season. Because of the importance of this game the line is 5 points higher than what it should be. For comparison sake let’s take a look at common opponents over the last 6 weeks. Akron was +15 at home last week against Ohio U, while a month ago the Flashes were +17 on the road in Athens. Six weeks ago Akron was +12 1/2 at Western Michigan, while two weeks ago the Flashes were +20 1/2 at the same venue. With these examples we see Akron being an 11 point favorite here at best. We take the generous number here as the Golden Flashes make this a game. PLAY KENT STATE |
|||||||
11-18-17 | UL-Monroe +37 v. Auburn | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
385 Louisiana Monroe at Auburn The Warhawks enter this game off a bye off wins over Appalachian State and Idaho. We expect the positive vibe to continue here as ULM looks to perform much better than last years 58-7 loss to these Tigers. This is the ultimate sandwich situation for the Tigers. Off beating #1 Georgia and having Alabama on deck. If Auburn can beat the Tide next week and Georgia again in the league championship, Auburn will have a chance to make the final four. We can see the coaching staff resting key players here, which will make it hard for the Tigers to surpass this number. PLAY ULM |
|||||||
11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
308 Eastern Michigan at Miami Ohio The Eagles enter play out of the bowl picture after losing to Central Michigan a week ago. This is a team much better than its record, but have not had many breaks go its way this season. Six losses were either by 5 points or less. or in overtime which happened three games this season. In the last month alone Eastern lost two overtime games against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Now that the postseason is out of reach we can’t see how this team can right itself for the remaining two games. While Eastern Michigan is just playing out the string, Miami can still go bowling with wins over Eastern and Ball State. With the starting QB back and healthy we look for the Redhawks to do what it did last year, win late in the season to go bowling. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Patriots -7.5 v. Broncos | Top | 41-16 | Win | 101 | 53 h 25 m | Show |
273 New England at Denver Pats defense has held the opposition to 13, 7, 17 and 14 points the past four games. That’s a stark contrast to what the Pats did to begin the season. The bye week should only improve the situation. Denver on the other hand have been outscored by 28, 10, 21 and 13 points the last four games. The defense which was so good early is starting to collapse of the weight of carrying this offense. The last three games Denver has produced 3.9, 3.5 and 3.5 first half yards per play. The scoring unit isn’t giving the defense a chance. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
265 Cleveland at Detroit Not only are the Browns winless on the season which provides value. But the team is off a bye week while Detroit beat divisional rival Green Bay on Monday Night Football. There likely won’t be a better spot to back the Browns all season. Cleveland has been competitive in 3 of the last 4 games, and actually had a halftime lead against Minnesota. Detroit has this game sandwiched around divisional rivals, in fact, after playing Green Bay last week they face Chicago and Minnesota the next two weeks. The Lions biggest favorite role this season was -2 hosting Carolina. We look for Detroit to try to get off the field without injuries and move on to more important games. PLAY CLEVELAND |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Wyoming +3 v. Air Force | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 125 h 23 m | Show |
151 Wyoming at Air Force The Cowboys have cashed 9 straight games in this series and are playing the far better ball at the moment. Wyoming has won 5 of 6 with the only loss coming at league leading Boise State. The Cowboy defense has been outstanding holding all but one opponent this year to 24 points or less. The last three games Wyoming has only permitted 6 combined explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Air Force just had its record broken for the longest streak of games without getting shutout. That was in a 21-0 loss to rival Army. The Falcons are only 2-5 ATS after facing the Cadets. On the season Air Force has permitted 19 more explosive plays than earned, as opposed to the Cowboys who are only -3 on the season. PLAY WYOMING |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Troy v. Costal Carolina +17 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
148 Troy at Coastal Carolina Can’t see the Trojans getting excited to play a team with one lone victory right before its bye week. Off its third straight victory on Thursday beating Idaho 24-21 the Trojans may be a bit overrated here. Coastal Carolina is stepping up to FBS level this year after winning 43 games at the FCS level the past four seasons. While the wins haven’t been there the energy has. Last week the Chanticleers almost knocked off Arkansas on the road as a 24 point underdog. On the season Coastal is +1 in explosive plays, right behind the +6 of Troy. This line is simply too high for the road favorite Trojans in a letdown situation. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
|||||||
11-07-17 | Bowling Green +8 v. Buffalo | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
103 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons have won the last six meetings in this series, and Buffalo hasn’t won any game against BG by this margin since 2005. Both teams have a +2 explosive play margin in Mid-American Conference action. Bowling Green played the tougher non-conference slate with Michigan and Northwestern. Buffalo faced Minnesota and Army. The Bulls haven’t surpassed 31 regulation points in any MAC game this year. The last three games saw them scoring 20, 14 and 13 points. Tough to lay this type of number against an offense which has averaged 36.5 points per game the last four outings. We like this Bulls team but this line is simply too high. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys OVER 52.5 | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
469 Kansas City at Dallas The Chiefs have scored 24 or more points in all but one game this season. This is a team that can attack in various ways and should find success against this Dallas defense. Dallas has scored 28 points or more now in five straight games. Elliott and company should have a field day running on this Chiefs defense which has struggled against the run all season. PLAY OVER |
|||||||
11-04-17 | UMass +31.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
373 Massachusetts at Mississippi State UMass has won two straight games beating Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. But this team has been very competitive all season long. In fact, its largest loss on the season was by 10 points twice. The Minutemen play to the finish, which is exactly what you are looking for with a sizable underdog. This is a sandwich spot for Miss State. Coming off Texas A&M and having its biggest game of the year on deck vs Alabama. The Bulldogs have lost nine straight games to the Crimson Tide. Who do you think this team is preparing for this week? PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
|||||||
11-03-17 | Cavs v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
702 Cleveland at Washington The Cavaliers have had a hard time keeping up with John Wall in the past. This year it should be much harder without Irving and Shumpert, its best defensive guard. Sure Kyrie isn’t very good defensively but he could force Wall to play both sides of the court, something the Cavalier guards of this season simply don’t have. Cleveland has been a step or two slow defensively all season and now are without Thompson, its best overall defensive player. The Wizards are simply too fast for this aging team to slow down, looks like a double digit victory for the host. PLAY WASHINGTON |
|||||||
11-02-17 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -8 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
310 Northern Illinois at Toledo Simply can’t trust the Huskies here who have faced a full schedule of weak offensive opponents. Only once all season have Northern Illinois surpassed 14 first half points, and that won’t get it done against this dynamic Rockets offense. On the season the Huskies have produced just 21 total explosive plays of 20 yards or better. This isn’t an offense built on coming from behind. Toledo on the other hand have 41 explosive plays on the year. Defensively the Rockets have allowed just 3, 2 and 2 twenty yard gains the past three games. With the defense getting better and the offense in high gear we will lay the points with the host. PLAY TOLEDO |
|||||||
10-31-17 | Bowling Green -2.5 v. Kent State | Top | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
301 Bowling Green at Kent State The Falcons have owned this series as of late winning by margins of 35, 48, 10 and 19 points the past four seasons. While BG is just 2-5 SU vs FBS competition, this team has been very competitive when not stepping up in class. Kent State has the worst scoring offense in college football. Only twice did the Flashes reach double digits this year. Scoring 13 hosting Buffalo and 17 hosting Miami Ohio. Strictly looking at first half scoring Kent State has amassed 28 total points in 7 games. That’s an average of 4 points in the first half this season. What is even more astounding in that Kent has had 7 first half drives starting in opponent territory. Bowling Green can score and Kent has no answer, road favorite takes the cash here. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
|||||||
10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 39 m | Show |
273 Denver at Kansas City Broncos have dropped three straight in this series and like the Chiefs enter this contest off back to back losses. The last six visits to Arrowhead saw Denver either a favorite or a 4 or less point underdog. Being a dog of this magnitude here is rare. On the season Denver has a +8 explosive play mark, while the Chiefs are at a -8. This game is more important for the Broncos who are 3-3 on the year with Philadelphia and New England on deck. KC sits at 5-2 with Dallas and a bye on deck. Much has been made about the Kansas City home field advantage, but the Chiefs are only 18-29-1 ATS here as a home favorite the past decade. PLAY DENVER |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Saints v. Packers +4.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
466 New Orleans at Green Bay The Saints haven’t played a true road game in a month. Traditionally this dome team is far better at home than on the road playing outside. New Orleans is on a 3-8 spread run as road favorites. Coming off a 52 point scoring game the Saints enter this contest fat and sassy. Green Bay is the home dog here because of the injury to Aaron Rodgers. But the drop-off isn’t as big as many would expect. The backup has been in the system for a couple years and has looked terrific when getting time in the preseason. Coming off the bench rusty last week is not the same as having a full week of practice with the starters. The Packers are on a 22-5 run straight up in Lambeau Field. It continues on Sunday. PLAY GREEN BAY |
|||||||
10-17-17 | Celtics +3 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Push | 0 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
501 Boston at Cleveland Many reasons to back the Celtics here. First of all is playoff revenge. Cleveland embarrassed Boston last year and the Celtics have had this game circled. The next major reason is all the changes in the Cavaliers lineups. With so many new additions and players playing different positions, we can’t expect this team to have success out of the gate. We will look to fade the Cave coming out of the gate. PLAY BOSTON |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
454 Buffalo at Cincinnati While the Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the season, this isn’t what we would consider a playoff team. It’s losing the explosive play battle, and has gone three straight games losing the first half yards per play numbers. Cincinnati has been much more explosive offensively since the offensive coordinator change. It has a positive explosive play edge on the season, to go along with three straight games of winning the first half yards per play. One team has been fortunate while the other is on the rise. PLAY CINCINNATI |
|||||||
10-07-17 | California +27.5 v. Washington | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 47 m | Show |
375 California at Washington The last time the Bears traveled to Seattle it came away with a 30-24 victory. While we aren’t calling for the outright win, a cover is easily in its site. We’ve been very impressed with this Golden Bears defense which has allowed just 9 explosive plays in four BFS contests. That includes Oregon, USC and an SEC squad in Mississippi. Justin Wilcox has this team pointed in the right direction off a 5-7 season a year ago under Sonny Dykes. Washington has feasted on bad or rebuilding teams so far. Rutgers, Fresno State, Colorado and Oregon State won’t scare many. Now fat and happen these Huskies will be severely tested for the first time this season. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers -2 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
272 Philadelphia at LA Chargers The Eagles sit at 2-1 on the season after using a 61 yard field goal to beat divisional rival New York. With four straight NFC opponents on deck including Thursday Night and Monday Night matchups, we can see the Eagles looking past the winless Chargers here. This is the third straight home game for the Chargers, and a must win game after an 0-3 start. LA is a much better team than what it has shown thus far, and it should match up well here with an Eagle defense missing key players. PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Akron v. Bowling Green +3 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 31 m | Show |
130 Akron at Bowling Green What the hell have the Zips done to be installed as a road favorite against a team it hasn’t beaten since 2006? BG has won this series by margins of 10, 49, 17, 17, 14, 16, 4 and 24 points covering the last decade. In its first three FBS games this season Akron has been outscored 35-0, 41-14 and 22-17. The Zips are 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite under Terry Bowden. Bowling Green has played three games vs FBS competition, all on the road. And as expected were beaten soundly in all three matchups as double digit dogs. But now this team returns home for the first time all year against an FBS opponent. This is the second year in the program for Mike Jinks. In his first season in BG, in conference action the Falcons averaged 29.6 ppg while permitting 29.9 ppg. Bowling Green brings a three game MAC winning streak into this contest. We expect that to be extended. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
|||||||
09-30-17 | New Mexico State +17 v. Arkansas | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
171 New Mexico State at Arkansas The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 ATS to start the season and none of it has been a fluke. NMSt has equalled or beaten every opponent in explosive plays of 20 or more yards. This is a team that has 25 explosive plays in its first four games. What we want out of a live underdog. Arkansas had an extra week to prepare for A&M last week and lost in overtime 50-43. Now it takes on a non-conference opponent before facing South Carolina and Alabama. Can’t trust the Razorbacks at all in this situation. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
|||||||
09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 39 h 53 m | Show |
477 Atlanta at Detroit Easy call here for the over. Atlanta averaged 33.8 points per game a year ago and have put up 57 combined points in its first two games. Detroit put up 35 and 24 against two pretty good stop units in the Cards and Giants. This will actually be the first decent offense the Lions have faced as both Arizona and New York have major offensive problems right now. PLAY OVER |
|||||||
09-23-17 | UTSA v. Texas State +14 | Top | 44-14 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 46 m | Show |
390 UTSA at Texas State The last three plus seasons the Roadrunners are 6-14 straight up on the road. They are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS as a double digit favorite regardless of location. Too much is being made of the 17-10 win earlier at Baylor, a team completely changing systems. We’ve been very impressed by Texas State despite losses to Colorado and Appalachian State. The Bobcats have only lost the explosive play battle 9 to 8. In first half action they have been outscored just 21-10. When looking at first half yards per play it lost to Colorado on the road 4.7 to 4.1, while outgaining App State 5.2 to 3.6. While this team entered the season as a bottom feeder in a lot of power ratings, the Bobcats have looked like a team on the rise. Keep in mind this team won as a 20 1/2 point underdog at Ohio U in the opener last year before injuries took a major toll. Nice value here with the home dog. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
|||||||
09-23-17 | San Diego State -3 v. Air Force | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
391 San Diego State at Air Force How many points is it worth in the line after winning back to back games against two PAC12 opponents? Certainly not as much as the current betting numbers would have you believe. Under Rocky Long the Aztecs have held Air Force to point totals of 24, 14, 20, 9, 27 and 25 points in his seven seasons at San Diego State. That’s 19.8 ppg under one of our favorite coaches. During those seven seasons Air Force averaged 30.5 points per game on the season, more than 10 points per game more than what it averaged against San Diego State. With both teams off physical Big Five teams, we will side with the simply better squad in a low priced contest. The Aztecs have won outright the past six meetings. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
|||||||
09-17-17 | Vikings v. Steelers -7 | Top | 9-26 | Win | 105 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
274 Minnesota at Pittsburgh Solid scheduling edge here for the host. Minnesota is on a short week after looking very good against the Saints Monday night at home. After this contest Minnesota has two more home games against possible NFC playoff squads Tampa Bay and Detroit. In fact, this road game at an AFC opponent is followed by four NFC battles including division rivals Detroit, Chicago on MNF and Green Bay. So this is by far the least important game for the Vikings in quite a while. We also get to fade a team that looked impressive in front of a MNF audience. Pittsburgh on the other hand is home for the only time in the first month of the season. The next two weeks the Steelers travel to Chicago and Baltimore. With only NFC entrant the Bears on deck, there is no lookahead for the host. The last three years have seen the Steelers going 7-1-1 ATS its first three home games of the season. This is a club who hasn’t had a single losing season overall in over a decade. We look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of a Minnesota team with less preparation time. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
123 Cincinnati at Miami Ohio This is a major rivalry game that most people don’t know about. Xavier, Miami and Cincinnati are all close to each other and take special pride in knocking off its neighbors. Here we find a Cincinnati team catching points for the first time in over a decade in this rivalry. Not only are they an underdog for the first time since 2005, the Bearcats have been significant favorites. Starting last year and going backward Cincinnati has been favored by 16, 20, 28.5, 24, 20.5, 15.5, 17, 28.5, 12, 7 and 11 points. That’s an average of over 18 points per game the past 11 seasons. Cincinnati played pretty well at Michigan last week with the spread never in doubt. The Bearcats are down by prior standards but this overlay is way too large. Based on the current line we are looking at a 21 or more point adjustment in one season, way too high. Keep in mind that Miami at the half against Marshall had a turnover advantage and still was outscored 21-13. The Redhawks were outgained 5.1 to 4.0 ypp at the half in a game it lost 31-26. We like this Miami team but this is rare territory for Chuck Martin’s club. PLAY CINCINNATI |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Georgia State +37.5 v. Penn State | Top | 0-56 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
125 Georgia State at Penn State The Panthers haven’t played a game since taking on Tennessee State on August 31st. That gives them plenty of time to try to keep this Penn State team under control. Since joining the FBS the Panthers are 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more, 21-10 ATS catching double digits. Last year against a fellow Big 10 team the Panthers caught 34 1/2 at Wisconsin and only lost by 6. Penn State had last weeks contest against Pittsburgh circled, as the team felt losing to the Panthers last year cost them a chance to play in the final four. With that game having so much emotion in a rivalry contest along with the Big 10 season starting next week at Iowa, we can see the Nittany Lions going through the motions here. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
|||||||
09-15-17 | White Sox +103 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
919 Chicago White Sox at Detroit No need to go into much detail here as the Tigers have thrown in the towel. While the White Sox are playing its young players and the team comes to the park excited. The Tigers continue to trot out past their prime veterans to take away at bats from future big leaguers. Fulmer is a key to the White Sox future while Sanchez is barely holding on to a major league job. We may make it a habit going forward to fade these Tigers. For sure it’s the right move today. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
|||||||
09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
481 LA Chargers at Denver The Chargers have been an afterthought in the minds of the public and the betting markets. After 5 and 4 win seasons the team was moved to a new city. To make matters worse the clubs home games are going to be played in a soccer field for the time being. If there is anyone who should be profitable on the road this season it will be these Chargers. This has been the role the Chargers have excelled in for years. 28-17-2 the past nine years in the road dog role, including a combined 9-5 ATS in the last two seasons. Denver has an excellent home field advantage when the team wins 9 or more games. In those years over the last decade the Broncos are 23-15-1 ATS. When winning 8 or less Denver is 12-26-2 ATS. This Bronco team is expected to be an 8 win team, so we can expect more of a poor home spread mark. The offense is putting the QB in more of a shotgun formation, which originally was designed for the former Memphis QB. Not for Trevor Siemian, who was expected to be the backup. But the injury to Lynch has put Siemian in a spot in which he has never performed well, in the shotgun. We take advantage of that opening night. PLAY LA CHARGERS |
|||||||
09-10-17 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 52 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
474 Seattle at Green Bay With the total expected to be a shootout we will side with the under in this battle of elite NFC squads. When looking at key positional matchups the defenses have a solid advantage in this contest. And with the current line we are able to grab that key number of 51. The week one NFL lines have been out for some time, so most have been pounded into place. This is one that still provides solid betting value. PLAY UNDER |