Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-25-21 | Mariners v. A's -165 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
974 Seattle at Oakland Listed Gilbert & Irvin Logan Gilbert enters this game with an average game score of 40 and an ERA of 9.45. But his advanced numbers are even worse. His average exit velocity is 94.7 mph, and his hard hit percentage is 65.2. To make matters worse, those two starts came against the Tigers and Indians. The wRC+ of those teams vs righties are 91 and 84. Now he takes on an Oakland team with a 102 wRC+ vs right handed starters. Cole Irvin isn’t as good as his stats suggest, but he is a legit MLB starter. Seattle has a 77 wRC+ on the season vs lefties, second worst in baseball. After pulling out a 4-2 victory yesterday, it’s revenge time for the A’s. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-24-21 | Rays -108 v. Blue Jays | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
907 Tampa Bay at Toronto Listed Yarbrough & Thornton The Rays are now second in baseball in wRC+ vs righties with a 114 rating, right behind the Dodgers. Despite the recent work of Yarbrough his numbers from an advanced metric are far superior to Thornton. Exit velocity of 84.4 compared to 90.2. Hard hit percentage of 27.6 to 51.6. Tampa Bay is playing great ball right now and finding ways to win. Eight straight wins by multiple runs. Don’t want to fad that in this price range. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -133 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
958 Arizona at Colorado Listed Widener & Gray The Rockies are simply a different team at home than on the road. It’s been this way for years but even more pronounced this season. They are 15-12 in Coors Field and 2-17 when on the road. John Gray’s last four home starts have resulted in game scores of 66, 60, 62 and 56. He knows how to pitch in this ballpark. Taylor Widener has never started a game here. Arizona is fading fast losing 9 of 10 games and seven straight. Up until scoring six runs yesterday they had scored a combined seven total runs in the previous six games. With a 9-20 road record on the season, we will fade the DBacks on Sunday. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-22-21 | Tigers +135 v. Royals | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
917 Detroit at Kansas City Listed Boyd & Singer The Royals have an 84 wRC+ on the season vs lefty starters. Detroit has a 91 wRC+ vs right handed starters. Detroit is playing the much better ball as of late winning 8 of 10 games, the Royals remain in a 20 game skid. Matthew Boyd has been very good this season with a 2.45 ERA. His last seven starts have had an average 59 game score. His last three on the road resulted in a 40 game score against the White Sox, the best lefty hitting team in baseball. Along with a 66 game score at Oakland, and a 61 at Houston. Brady Singer has a bright future and we really like him, but this line is simply too high to consider the Royals who are still trying to right the ship. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-22-21 | White Sox +183 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
913 Chicago WS at New York Yankees Listed Cease & Cole This line is way too high based on the talent of these two teams. The White Sox have a higher wRC+ on the season between these two. Yes Cole is the better pitcher, but Dylan Cease has been extremely good as of late. In his last seven starts his average game score has been 60, while Cole’s has been 68. This isn’t nearly as big of pitching edge for the Yankees as this line suggests. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-21-21 | A's +102 v. Angels | 8-4 | Win | 102 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
973 Oakland at LA Angels Listed Kaprielian & Quintana The A’s are 11-6 on the season vs lefties, with a 115 wRC+. The Angels are 15-18 vs righties with a 104 wRC+. James Kaprielian made a successful Major League debut nine days ago at Fenway Park. He should find success in Anaheim tonight. Jose Quintana has only two of his last seven starts better than league average in game scores. He’s not as bad as his 8.53 ERA, but he’s no longer a successful Major League starter. The Angels are without Mike Trout and the team is trying to fit in backups in the starting roles. We would trust the Oakland bats to have more success here. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-21-21 | White Sox -105 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
963 Chicago WS at NY Yankees Listed Rodon & Montgomery Facing left-handed starters this year the White Sox lead baseball with a wRC+ of 142, the Yankees 105. Record wise the Sox are 9-2 vs lefties while the Yankees are 5-6. Rodon has been the far more impressive starter, with a no-hitter to his credit and a 1.47 ERA. But his last start was his worst of the season with a 39 game score. Montgomery is also coming in off a bad start with a 29 game score at Baltimore. Overall five of his last seven starts have been below the league average of a 50 game score. Carlos Rodon has increased his 4 seam fastball by 2.2 mph this season, and his slider is also up in velocity. All three of his pitches have all improved when looking at WOBA. We trust this White Sox team vs lefties, and Rodon has been much more consistent than his mound counterpart. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox +144 v. Phillies | 11-3 | Win | 144 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
977 Boston at Philadelphia Listed Perez & Nola The starting pitcher matchup isn’t nearly as dominant for the Phillies as you would expect. In fact, Perez actually has a lower ERA, and has had better game scores his last four combined starts than Nola. Boston is 4th in baseball in wRC+ vs righties while the Phillies are 17th in wRC+ vs southpaws. Boston’s road record is also better than the Phillies home mark. Philadelphia has been held to one or less runs in five of its last ten games. No way we trust this team in this favorite role. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-20-21 | Astros -114 v. A's | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
915 Houston at Oakland Listed Garcia & Irvin The Astros rank right behind the White Sox in wRC+ vs left-handed starters. They have a 125 wRC+ which is 25% better than an average team. Cole Irvin has over performed for the A’s with a nice 3.02 ERA on the season. His 4.1% walk rate has been outstanding. But in looking over the advanced stats he is due for some regression. His four seam fastball is 2 mph slower than a year ago. His other pitches have all dropped a full mph from last year as well. His exit velocity is 91 mph and his hard hit rate in 41.7%. We look for the Astros bats to have success early. Luis Garcia has really good advanced stats with a hard hit rate of only 87.9 mph, and a strikeout percentage of 27.8. He has had five straight starts of better than average game scores. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-19-21 | Astros -113 v. A's | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
975 Houston at Oakland Listed Greinke and Montas On the season vs right-handed starters the Astros have a wRC+ of 115, 2nd in baseball. The Athletics have a 98 wRC+ on the year. Oakland has beaten up weak opposition but has struggled when stepping up in class. Zack Greinke hasn’t been great this year with a 4.18 ERA, but he has had a lot of success against Oakland. His last five starts against the A’s have resulted in a game score of 61, with no start worse than a 47. Frankie Montas over the last two seasons has permitted 18 home runs in 95 innings of work, with an ERA of around 5.30. Would rather trust the veteran Greinke with the much better offense. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-19-21 | Mets +166 v. Braves | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
957 NY Mets at Atlanta Listed Peterson & Morton Yes the Mets have been dealing with injuries as of late, and the lineup isn’t as strong as it was a couple weeks ago. But how can you trust Charlie Morton and this Braves team against lefties in this price zone? The Braves have an 82 wRC+ on the season vs lefty starters, 18% worse than a normal league average. Morton has just one of his last six starts with a game score better than league average. Peterson has been much more impressive his last six starts. A 69 game score at Tampa Bay, and a 61 game score at Chicago Cubs in his previous two road starts. This game has been bet up overnight, which now gives us a solid selection on the underdog Mets. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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05-17-21 | Nationals +140 v. Cubs | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
955 Washington at Chicago Cubs Listed Lester & Alzolay Big game for Jon Lester as he spent the last six seasons with the Cubs. You know this game was one that he had circled coming into this season. And so far this year he has been a pleasant surprise with the Nets. His game scores have been 57, 50 and 56. While the Cubs are 9-3 on the season vs lefty starters, their wRC+ is only 101. Adbert Alzolay has a bright future, and he has been very good this young season. But this line is simply too high not to take a solid shot with Lester and the Nationals. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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05-15-21 | Royals v. White Sox -181 | 5-1 | Loss | -181 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
970 Kansas City at Chicago White Sox Listed Minor & Rodon Don’t usually lay this type of number on the diamond, but in this case the line is cheap. Looking at season to date wRC+ vs lefties, the Royals are 79 and the Sox 154. The Royals split the doubleheader yesterday to break a ten game losing streak. Mike Minor is facing the Sox for the third time already this season, he has allowed six earned runs in nine innings of work. Rodon threw a six inning shutout of the Royals about a week ago. Chicago is on a 23-1 run when facing a lefty starter. Just can’t pass up a chance to back them at a very reasonable number. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-14-21 | A's v. Twins +106 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
924 Oakland at Minnesota Listed Montas & Shoemaker Frankie Montas has pitched just twice on the road this season. He faced these Twins once at the Big O and allowed six earned runs in four innings. The Twins lit him up for three homers. Matt Shoemaker has been a solid starter when healthy. But he too has had consistency problems this season. He was hit hard in Oakland allowing five earned runs in 3.1 innings of work. On the season vs righties the respective wRC+ numbers are Minnesota 108 and Oakland 93. Oakland has been very lucky when looking at one run games and extra inning contests, with a combined 11-3 record. The Twins have been the opposite at 3-14. Things haven’t gone right with Minnesota this season but this team has equal if not more talent than Oakland. Let’s take the nice price with the Twins. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-14-21 | Phillies +142 v. Blue Jays | 5-1 | Win | 142 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
931 Philadelphia at Toronto Action Not going to specify pitchers in this one as we rate both projected starters in the same range. More of a situational play along with line value. Toronto is back in Dunedin for the first time in quite a while. Having traveled to Oakland, Houston and Atlanta, three teams expecting to be in the playoffs. Now in the first game back after a three game sweep in Atlanta, we can see this team being preoccupied. We had some interest in the overnight lines, but now that Toronto has taken action, it’s time to pounce on the road dog with value. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-13-21 | Indians -112 v. Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
971 Cleveland at Seattle Listed Plesac & Gilbert There is a song by one of our favorites, Motorhead, called “The chase is better than the catch”. While that song is about pursuing a woman, the same could be applied here with Logan Gilbert. Seattle has a loaded minor league system and tonight the Seattle faithful get to see the two players they have been waiting on for the last two years. They will both be in the lineup tonight against the Indians. But while the future is bright for both these players, the Major Leagues are a huge step up in quality. There is excitement in the air for not only baseball fans, but sports bettors as this line has dropped 20 cents since the opener. And that move puts us squarely on the Tribe and Zach Plesac. Did you know that the young righty for the Indians has pitched three games this season without allowing a run? When not facing the Chicago White Sox he has put up game scores of 83, 65, 60, 77 and 54. Outstanding work for a pitcher that finished last season with a 2.28 ERA. The Indians have won eight of nine games heading into this contest, and are 10-7 on the season away from Progressive Field. Seattle on the other hand has faded of late, losing four straight heading into this contest. The Mariners rookies are going to be good, but they are not saviors in their first game. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-13-21 | Royals -102 v. Tigers | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
961 Kansas City at Detroit Listed Lynch & Turnbull Daniel Lynch is a highly regarded pitching prospect for the Royals, who has gotten off to a terrible start in his first two games at the Major League level. He enters play with an 18.56 ERA in 5.1 innings of work. Both those starts were in Kansas City, and it can only help that he’s getting out of town. The Royals have also lost ten straight games coming into this contest. But yet, we much prefer the Royals in this afternoon matchup. Over the last three seasons Spencer Turnbull has posted a combined 8-23 record with the Tigers. In looking at wRC+ vs lefty starters the Tigers have a 45 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is in the 100 range, and the Tigers are dead last. Do we really want to back the Tigers in this situation as a favorite. Hell No! Give us the team with more talent, a pitcher with a much higher ceiling and getting the Royals as an underdog. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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05-12-21 | Blue Jays +107 v. Braves | 4-1 | Win | 107 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
925 Toronto at Atlanta Listed Ryu & Fried Two terrific lefties take the mound tonight in Georgia. On the season the Blue Jays have a wRC+ of 106 vs southpaws and the Braves 59, second worst in baseball ahead of the Tigers. Max Fried looked good in his first start since coming off the IL, with a 60 game score at Washington. But he only threw 72 pitches and his season high is only 86. We rank him very closely with Ryu, so the starters should be close to a wash. Toronto is 11-12 away from home while the Braves are only playing .500 ball in this building. With the major hitting edge here for the visitor, we can’t pass up this underdog price. PLAY TORONTO |
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05-10-21 | Red Sox -134 v. Orioles | 1-4 | Loss | -134 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
907 Boston at Baltimore Listed Perez & Lopez We rarely go out of our way to back Martin Perez, but he’s actually not that bad this season. The league average game score is 50, and he has been within 10 of that number in all but one start this season. That bad start was against the White Sox, and we all know how Chicago pounds lefties. His last two starts resulted in game scores of 51 and 60. Jorge Lopez is one of the worst starters in baseball. The last three seasons his ERA is roughly 6.50. He hasn’t had a season with an ERA under six. He faced the Red Sox once this year going four innings and allowing seven earned runs. Boston is 14-10 vs righties and the Orioles are 5-8 vs lefties. Boston is 12-4 on the road, while the O’s are 4-13 at home. We liked this game overnight and the line has even gotten better. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves +102 | 1-6 | Win | 102 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
962 Philadelphia at Atlanta Listed Nola & Ynoa Aaron Nola is a popular betting choice every time he takes the mound, and for good reason. His average game score in his last seven starts has been 61. But on the road this season his starts have been 47, 52 and 58, good but not outstanding. Huascar Ynoa has come out of nowhere to be the Braves savior this season. His six starts have averaged a 61 game score, the same as Nola. But at home he has put up numbers of 71, 64 and 67. The Phillies are only 5-10 on the road this season, and despite the current records, the Braves are the better team in our ratings. Nice number for the home squad. PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-09-21 | Dodgers -180 v. Angels | 1-2 | Loss | -180 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
979 Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels Listed Bauer & Quintana Simply put, you would have to look a long while before you saw a pitching mismatch this large. Bauer has been outstanding once again this season with an average game score in his last seven starts of 66. He has a 2.44 ERA after a 1.73 ERA last season. We know what we will get from Bauer, excellence. Jose Quintana not so much. His last seven starts overall have a 37 average game score. Only once in that time frame has he had a start better than the league average of 50. Looking for regression in one run games combined with extra inning results. We see the Dodgers at 5-15 and the Angels 4-3. Despite the bad luck of the Dodgers they are still 18-16 on the season, the Angels 14-18. We don’t often lay numbers this big, but the value is too large to pass up. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-09-21 | White Sox -144 v. Royals | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
967 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Listed Giolito & Minor Lucas Giolito has had just one start all season with a game score under 52. League average is 50, so only once was he not good this season. But that one start at Boston has screwed his confidence from the betting markets. Mike Minor has had just one start this season over that 52 game score. The Sox are 9-7 on the road while KC has slumped to 8-11 at Kaufman Field. Chicago is 6-1 on the season vs lefties, with a wRC+ of 141. Picking right up where this team left off last season, raking against southpaws. Chicago is just 3-6 combined in one run and extra inning games, the Royals on the other hand have been very fortunate at 7-2. We look for regression in those numbers. Give us the lefty killing Sox with their ace on the mound. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-08-21 | Red Sox -131 v. Orioles | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
919 Boston at Baltimore Listed Richards only Garrett Richards has always had talent, but injuries have cost him a big part of his career. But he looks healthy now and his numbers this season have been pretty good overall. But outside of Fenway Park is where he really has had success. In his road starts his game scores have been 54 here in Baltimore, 57, 69 and 61. The Sox are 10-4 on the road this season, and 7-3 vs lefty starters. On the year vs lefties Boston has a wRC+ of 110 while the O’s are 78 vs righties. Nice value here for the road squad. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-07-21 | Padres v. Giants +130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 130 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
962 San Diego at San Francisco Listed Snell & DeSclafani We’ve been riding DeSclafani this year because he has been severely underrated. As mentioned before, when not pitching in the launching pad of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, his numbers have been solid. This season he has had six starts, with five of those being 55 or better game scores. His worst start of the season was a 43 at Philadelphia, another great hitters park. He faced the Padres just six days ago and allowed three earned runs in six innings. Blake Snell faced off against him in that game and yielded just a single run in five innings of work. In two road starts for Snell this season his game scores have been 33 and 51. Pitching at home DeSclafani has produced game scores of 67 and 89. The Giants are 7-4 on the season vs lefty starters, and are 10-3 at home this season. Nice value on the host. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-06-21 | Rays +115 v. Angels | 8-3 | Win | 115 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
919 Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Angels Listed McHugh & Heaney Looks like a bullpen game for the Rays as McHugh has only thrown 5.1 innings on the season. But that’s ok in our book as we really like these Rays relievers. Andrew Heaney can look incredible one start and terrible the next. His game scores this year have run the gamut of 23 to 75. Simply can’t trust him here against a team with post season veterans. Tampa Bay is 10-5 on the road this season, while the Angels have a losing record at home. The last three seasons Tampa has won seven of the ten meetings in this series, along with all three this season. The Angels bats have been silent as of late scoring just seven runs combined the last four games. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-06-21 | Braves -113 v. Nationals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
905 Atlanta at Washington Listed Smyly & Lester Two starters have have seen better days go head to head on Thursday. Jon Lester finally took the mound for the first time with the Nationals and he went five innings without allowing a run. But don’t get excited, it’s still the same Jon Lester. Drew Smyly looked good in his first start of the season but has since put up game scores of 40, 30 and 25. He has allowed nine home runs in only 19 innings of work. But other than his last start against Toronto in the launch pad that is Dunedin, his control has been good. We expect a bounce back start from the veteran lefty. Looking a possible regression for these two teams as Atlanta has a combined 5-10 record in extra inning and one run games. Washington is 6-2 in those categories. We like the Braves chances here as we have much more confidence in the better team PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-05-21 | Orioles +105 v. Mariners | Top | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
965 Baltimore at Seattle Listed Means & Kikuchi John Means has simply been outstanding this year. In his last seven starts he has a 67 average game score with a 1.67 ERA. To make those stats even better, 5 of his last 7 starts have been on the road. Even more impressive those starts were at really strong venues of the A’s, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Now he takes a step down to face the Mariners, who according to wRC+ is the weakest offensive opponent he has faced. Kikuchi has been better this year, but he still owns a 4.40 ERA. Pitching at home this year he has permitted eight earned runs in 13 innings of work. We always look for luck factors in small sizes this early in the season. Baltimore is a combined 6-6 in extra innings and one run games. Seattle is 11-4 in those situations. Look for the Mariners luck to take a hit in the near future. No time better than now. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-04-21 | Rangers +152 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 152 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
919 Texas at Minnesota Listed Gibson & Happ Both starters have been tremendous so far this season, surprising many. Butwe trust the changes Kyle Gibson has made more than what Happens has accomplished. The Rangers are 9-4 on the season vs lefties, and have s runs overall in their last three games. The offense is getting healthy and this team has been a credible 6-8 on the highway. Give us the visitor in what we see as an over inflated favorite. PLAY TEXAS |
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05-03-21 | Indians v. Royals +103 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
964 Cleveland at Kansas City Listed Civile and Lynch Aaron Civale came into the season highly thought of. And overall he has been good, but his two best performances were against the light hitting Tigers. He is opposing Daniel Lynch, a hot shot lefty making his Major League debut. The Indians are 5-7 on the season vs left-handed starters, and rank 28th overall in wRC+. The Royals rank 14th in WRC+ and are 11-5 vs right-handed starters. With an 8-5 home record and coming off a blowout loss at Minnesota, we expect the host to win this one. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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05-02-21 | Marlins +149 v. Nationals | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
901 Miami at Washington Listed Rogers & Scherzer Both starters have produced 59 game scores their past seven starts. But Rogers has better numbers this season. Sure he has been helped by allowing just one homer in 28 innings, but his stuff is legit. We also prefer the Marlin’s bullpen as Washington continues to struggle in the late innings. The Nationals are just 2-4 on the season facing lefty starters. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-01-21 | Giants +164 v. Padres | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
963 San Francisco at San Diego Listed DeSclafani & Snell We talked about Anthony DeSclafani last time out before he had a complete game shutout. He has been terrific in his career when not pitching in the launchpad of Great American Ballpark. In his last five starts against the Padres he has an average game score of 60 with a 2.17 ERA. His game scores this season have been 56, 67, 64, 42 and 89, with the league average being 50. The Giants are 7-3 on the season vs lefties. Nice value here on the road team which ranks higher in the standings. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers +114 | 5-6 | Win | 114 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
960 Los Angeles at Milwaukee Listed May & Woodruff Can’t pass up the chance to play Brandon Woodruff as a home underdog. He has a 1.55 ERA on the season, and 1.48 ERA with an average game score of 69 in his last seven outings. The Dodgers are 10-6 on the season vs right handed starters, the Brewers 15-9 vs the same. The Dodgers have dropped 7 of 9 as of late with 7 of those 9 games coming at home. Don’t trust the Dodgers as a road favorite right now. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-30-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates +103 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
902 St Louis at Pittsburgh Listed Gant & Brubaker On the season these two clubs have been almost identical offensively with St Louis ranking 22nd with a 90 wRC+ and Pittsburgh at 23rd with the same wRC+. John Gant has a 48 average game score his last seven starts, while JT Brubaker is averaging a 57 game score in his previous seven. Gant has been very fortunate in his young career allowing just 5 home runs in 101.1 innings of work. His advanced stats show his barrel % to be a career high of 8.9, while his fly ball % is 21.4, also a career high. Last year he was a major ground ball pitcher with 66.7% of his pitches being beaten into the ground, but his lifetime marks suggest something in the range of 47.8%. He throws the sinker 51% of the time as compared to 39% last year. So he’s throwing his best pitch more, but he’s getting less success with it. This year his WOBA on that pitch is .325, while last year it was .205. We expect some negative regression. The Pirates had yesterday off which is an offensive advantage. JT Brubaker has been terrific thus far as he was a standout coming into the season. His barrel rate is 2% lower than Gant, and he is at a 59% ground ball rate. His walk percentage is 5.5, much better than Gant’s 14.8. So we have a rested team, with a superior starter who has better advanced stats in virtually every category. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-27-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
956 Philadelphia at St Louis Listed Eflin & Martinez Over the years Carlos Martinez has fared well against the Phillies, but 11 days ago he posted a 36 game score. Allowing six earned runs in five innings. That was his worst start of the young season. His last time out he threw a 62 game score at the Nationals. Zach Eflin beat St Louis and Martinez in that game 9-2, throwing a nice 63 game score. But home Eflin and road Eflin have been two different things. In his last six road starts he has game scores of 43, 66, 32, 47, 41 and 29, an average of 43. Keep in mind league average is 50. When looking at the Statcast data from last year to this year, we are deeply troubled. Checking his velocity his 4 seam fastball is down 1.5 mph, and his sinker is down 1.8 mph. His solid hit percentage is a career high 11.5. Eflin’s fly ball percentage of 32.1 is also a career high. Philadelphia is just 2-7 on the road heading into Monday night. Look for the Cards bats to reverse the earlier 9-2 loss with a solid victory in this competitively priced game. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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04-26-21 | Mariners +160 v. Astros | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
921 Seattle at Houston Listed Sheffield & Urquidy Eight days ago the Mariners ended a three game series with Houston at home, outscoring the Astros 13 to 8 in taking two of three. They faced Urquidy just ten days ago. When comparing the two starters they are very similar with average games scores of 54 each the past seven overall starts. What has been so impressive about Justus Sheffield is that six of his last seven starts have produced game scores of 58, 63, 59, 52, 61 and 52. All consistently above league average. The Mariners are 10-5 vs righty starters while Houston is 5-6 vs lefties on the season. Seattle is 7-4 on the road and Houston is 4-6 at home. Yes, Houston has the better talent, but this line looks extremely inflated. Plenty of value on the confident underdog Mariners here. PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-25-21 | Brewers -122 v. Cubs | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
957 Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs Listed Woodruff & Arrieta Brandon Woodruff has been outstanding against the Cubs, with a 67 average game score and a 1.84 ERA in his last five starts against them. In his last seven starts overall he has a 66 average game score and a 2.06 ERA. In looking at the Statcast data his velocity is up slightly and he has taken more off his off speed pitches. Jake Arrieta has struggled against the Brewers with a 5.53 ERA and 46 average game score in his last five. To his credit he has pitched well this year, but not to the level of today’s mound opponent. The Brewers are 12-8 on the season vs righty starters, the Cubs 4-10. Milwaukee has been excellent on the road with an 8-3 mark. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-25-21 | Royals -111 v. Tigers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
971 Kansas City at Detroit Listed Duffy & Fulmer Danny Duffy has added velocity so far this season, a major source of his success. His 4 seam fastball is up 1.6 mph, his slider 1.3 mph, and his off speed pitches are slower. Which is a nice combination for the Royals lefty. Michael Fulmer looks healthy this year which is great for this once promising starter. But in his two starts he has only thrown 78 and 60 pitches as the brass is looking to ease him in to a full workload. The Tigers are only 1-5 on the season vs lefty starters, and have scored two or less runs in 6 of its last 7 games. The Royals are playing the much better ball right now and are worth a look at this cheap price. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-24-21 | Rangers +150 v. White Sox | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
927 Texas at Chicago WS Listed Gibson & Keuchel Kyle Gibson has had a great deal of success against Chicago with an average game score of 55 in his last five starts against them. The last four has been even more impressive with starts of 45, 62, 71 and 66. In his last three starts overall this season he has been outstanding with scores of 80, 64 and 67. He made pitching changes in the off-season and his 2.53 ERA this year is proof. Dallas Keuchel has struggled a bit out of the gate with game scores of 32, 47, 49 and 48 in this young season. All starts worse than the league average of 50. The Rangers are 6-3 vs lefty starters this year, while the Sox are 6-8 vs righties. Texas is also a solid 6-5 on the road. The Texas bats have erupted for 22 runs its past four games, look for that to continue with this solid underdog. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-24-21 | Angels +132 v. Astros | 2-16 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
919 LA Angels at Houston Listed Canning & Odorizzi These clubs have split the season series the past two years. The loss of Mike Trout for the Angels is big, but not nearly as large as this line would suggest. Keep in mind the excellent Houston closer Pressly had to throw two innings and 29 pitches last night, so that likely loss is large as well. Griffin Canning has a 55 average game score in his last seven starts, Jake Odorizzi is a 46. Just this season Canning has posted 52 and 50 game scores, Odorizzi 30 and 45. Each team is struggling lately having lost 7 of 10 games. The Angels are 8-6 vs righties while the Astros are 4-4. This line is simply too high. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-23-21 | Phillies +111 v. Rockies | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
959 Philadelphia at Colorado Action Normally we list pitchers but in this case we will be looking to bet on the offenses as opposed to whomever starts. It’s likely a bullpen game for the Phillies and we are OK with that. Our numbers have the Rockies as the worst team in baseball. This is the least talented team in the league. They are 6-12 on the season, including 3-10 vs right handed starters. And yet, they are favored over one of the most potent lineups in the National League. Throw out the pitching here and just give us the better team, as an underdog no less. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-21-21 | Braves +121 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 121 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
975 Atlanta at NY Yankees Listed Anderson & Kluber We’ve faded Corey Kluber before and we have seen no reason to stop. Going back to the year 2015 his highest barrel percentage allowed was 8.9 in 2019. It’s currently 15.6%. His highest exit velocity was 87.9, it’s now 90.7, and he’s only had 32 batted balls against him. He’s been very lucky as the 2021 launch angle is only 6.6 degrees, it’s normally twice that since 2015. Ian Anderson is clearly the better starter at this point in their careers. In hard hit percentage the Yankees rank 28th and the Braves 13th. Looking at wRC+ we find the Yankees ranking 26th and Atlanta 9th. Better hitting, stronger starting pitching, and an underdog. Count us in. PLAY ATLANTA |
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04-20-21 | White Sox v. Indians +105 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
912 Chicago WS at Cleveland Listed Rodon & Plesac Quick rematch of the Rodon no-hitter with a venue change. We usually look to fade a pitcher off the emotional high, and it’s especially true after the injury battles Carlos Rodon had to go through to get to where he is now. It was a great story, but we have to move on to the next game. Plesac was bombed in that game as he simply didn’t pitch well. The last time he had a game anywhere near that result he pitched an 87 game score his next outing. We all know the Sox rake against lefties, with a 4-1 record this season. But they are only 4-8 on the year vs righties. Looking at hard hit rate Cleveland ranks 7th and Chicago 19th. Yet the White Sox have an 18% better wRC+. That means Cleveland is hitting better than the actual runs scored would suggest. With the Indians 4-1 at home this year, and the embarrassment of being no-hit, we will back the Tribe as an underdog today. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-18-21 | Cardinals +166 v. Phillies | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
901 St Louis at Philadelphia Listed Gant & Nola Simply put, this line is way too high to back the Phillies. St Louis is 5-3 on the road while Philadelphia is 6-2 at home. The Cards scored nine times against this Philly pitching staff yesterday. With the bullpen throwing 120 pitches. In hard hit rate the Cards rank 16th and the Phillies 21st. In wRC+ the Cards are 16th and the Phillies 27th. So this line all comes down to the starting pitchers. Gott has a 47 average game score his last seven starts, Nola comes in at 52 in the same time frame. In his career Gant has a 46 average game score against Philadelphia, Nola has a 62 against St Louis. While those numbers clearly point to the Phillies starter, it’s not nearly as dominant as this line would suggest. Plenty of value on the road team on Sunday. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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04-17-21 | Blue Jays v. Royals +107 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
922 Toronto at Kansas City Listed Matz & Minor Steven Matz has looked good in his first two American League starts, but that’s not how it normally works out for starters switching from the NL to the AL. Mike Minor has absolutely owned the Blue Jays in his career. In five career starts he has an average 63 game score with a 2.12 ERA. He has a 6.6 to 1 SO to BB ratio. Big fans of this Kansas City organization and Toronto is off back to back wins over the NY Yankees. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-16-21 | Pirates +141 v. Brewers | 6-1 | Win | 141 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
909 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Listed Brubaker & Houser The Pirates along with the Rangers and Rockies are expected to be the worst teams in baseball this season. But when the price is right any team can be a betting value. And that’s what we have here with Pittsburgh. JT Brubaker is someone we want to put our money on. Over his last five starts his game scores have been 59, 54, 34, 66 and 57. The lone poor start was in Cleveland where they use the DH. He has been very good against National League teams. He also has a solid 54 game score in two starts against the Brewers. Adrian Houser on the other hand has a 46 average game score against the Pirates, and a 42 average game score his last seven overall starts. From a hitting perspective Milwaukee ranks 28th in wRC+ and the Pirates are 10th. In hard hot rate Milwaukee ranks 27th and Pittsburgh 22nd. Nice price here with the underdog Pirates. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-16-21 | Indians -105 v. Reds | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
929 Cleveland at Cincinnati Listed Allen & Hoffman Logan Allen was once a highly touted prospect in the San Diego organization. He came over to Cleveland by trade in 2019. From articles we’ve read he has rededicated himself to being the best pitcher possible to honor his wheelchair bound brother. The Indians organization said he lost 35 pounds and is much more focused this season. His first two starts this year had game scores of 50 and 61. Jeff Hoffman had a 6.56 ERA in 2019 and even worse 9.28 in 2020. He’s a major weakness in this solid Reds starting rotation. Cincinnati is returning home from six games in Arizona and San Francisco. This will be the very first lefty starter the Reds have faced this year. Looking at Hard Hit Percentage Cleveland ranks 7th in baseball and Cincinnati 15th. While the Reds have prospered ranking 4th in wRC+, the Indians rank 27th. Cincinnati has been very fortunate this season in hitting with runners in scoring position, Cleveland has been unlucky offensively. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-15-21 | Tigers +155 v. A's | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
971 Detroit at Oakland Listed Skubal & Manaea Last year the Tigers had a wRC+ of 163 on the road vs lefties, the A’s had a wRC+ of 98 hosting lefties. Tarik Skubal is coming off his worst start in this young season. The last time he pitched as poorly he came out with a 62 game score the following outing. Coming off a confidence building sweep at Houston, we expect that positive momentum to continue. Sean Manaea has fared well again Detroit but hasn’t faced them since 2019. This Detroit offense is much better than the ones he remembers. Oakland returns home off a successful road trip, including beating the Astros 2 of 3 in Houston. Let’s fade the likely overconfident host. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-14-21 | Reds -105 v. Giants | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
905 Cincinnati at San Francisco Listed Mahle & Cueto Johnny Cueto in his first two starts this year threw 105 and then 118 pitches. It’s the first time in years he has thrown that many pitches in back to back games. The 118 was the most he has had in quite some time. The last time he had over 110 pitches he was bombed in his subsequent start. Tyler Mahle was simply a different pitcher last year. A major improvement in his SO to BB ratio. He now has 75 strikeouts in his last 56.2 innings of work. He is an underrated starter and the line is pretty cheap here. Great value on the visiting Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-13-21 | Indians v. White Sox -102 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
976 Cleveland at Chicago WS Listed Bieber & Giolito This one should be a tremendous game as we have two elite pitchers dealing. While Bieber is the reigning Cy Young Winner, he hasn’t exactly dominated the White Sox over the years. In his last five against Chicago his average game score is 55. League average is 50, so he is doing well, but not nearly as dominant as he has been against most teams. Giolito on the other hand has a 70 average game score against the Tribe his last five starts in this series. In 33.2 innings his ERA is 1.07. The Indians are hitting above their heads right now, ranking 2nd in baseball with a 38.8% hard hit rate. Yet they have scored just 37 runs in eight games 4.63 runs per game. In 5 of 8 games Cleveland has scored four or less runs. If that’s all Cleveland can score when hitting the ball on the button, that tells you all you need to know about this limited offense. Rarely will be get the chance to play Giolito at home in this price range. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-12-21 | Reds v. Giants -111 | 3-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
912 Cincinnati at San Francisco Listed Miley & Sanchez In 2020 the Reds had a wRC+ of 83 on the road vs righties, the Giants had a wRC+of 125 hosting lefties. The Reds currently lead all of baseball with a 153 wRC+. But keep in mind they are hitting lights out with runners in scoring position, and rank only 14th in hard hit rate. They scored a combined eight runs in three regulation games at Arizona, and the D’Backs aren’t exactly a strong pitching staff. Wade Miley is a crafty lefty but the Giants are already 4-1 when facing a southpaw starter. He is coming off a 73 game score in his season opener hosting Pittsburgh. Wiley has battled inconsistency throughout his entire career. Give us the host who rakes against lefties. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals +102 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
924 LA Angels at Kansas City Listed Cobb & Singer Last year the Angels had a wRC+ of 97 on the road vs righties. The Royals had a wRC+ of 104 hosting righties. The Angels travel to KC after spending the weekend in Dunedin Florida, in the launching pad of the Jays Spring Training site. While yesterdays game was rained out, the team combined for 36 runs in the first three games of the series. The LA bullpen threw 314 pitches in that series. Alex Cobb has looked good in his last three starts dating back to last year. But he has never fared well against the Royals with his last five starts averaging a 44 game score. Brady Singer is a young pitcher we really like. And he did not fare well in the opener with a 30 game score vs Texas. In his final four starts of 2020 he produced game scores of 86, 75, 40 and 72. Three excellent and one below average start. Considering the Angels have never faced him as a starter, we give the advantage to the pitcher. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-11-21 | Yankees v. Rays +134 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
972 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Listed Pitchers Montgomery & Honeywell Jr In 2020 the Yankees had a wRC+ on the road vs righties of 87, the Rays had a wRC+ of 134 hosting lefties. Jordan Montgomery looked really good in his first start of the year, producing a 71 game score. But when looking at his last seven starts he is only slightly better than average at 51. He has struggled against the Rays with a 46 average game score in his previous five starts against the Bay. Brent Honeywell Jr is being called up to make a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen game for the Rays. This is a pitcher that has been highly coveted throughout his career, but injuries have slowed down his development. We are excited for him to get the chance to make his debut today. With a loaded Rays minor league system, it’s telling why they brought him up for this start. Can’t forget that the Rays are 10-2 vs the Yankees the past two seasons. Getting them as a home underdog in this price range is a gift. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays -112 | 1-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
922 LA Angels at Toronto Quintana & Matz Last year the Angels had a 72 wRC+ on the road vs lefties. Toronto had a 117 wRC+ hosting lefties. Steven Matz had great success in his first start on the season. Although is was at Texas against a lesser hitting team. Jose Quintana hasn’t faced Toronto since 2017. His last seven starts overall have resulted in a 33 Game Score. His best start was a 49 which was still less than the league average of 50. We like this Jays lineup against southpaws and believe this line is simply too cheap not to back them. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-09-21 | Reds v. Diamondbacks +133 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
958 Cincinnati at Arizona Mahle & Widener In 2020 the Reds had a wRC+ of 83 on the road vs righties, the Diamondbacks had a 109 wRC+ hosting righties. Well aware of how well this Reds offense has been producing. But keep in mind this team is overly due to regress. They are far and away the MLB leader in hitting with runners in scoring position, that has major regression written all over it. Batted ball data also has the Reds ranking 18th in hard hit percentage. Arizona is 15th by comparison. So we have one offense that has been very fortunate, and another that is doing better than the actual results. Plenty of value of the home underdog here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-09-21 | Yankees v. Rays +121 | 5-10 | Win | 121 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
960 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Kluber & Hill In 2020 the Yankees had a wRC+ of 85 on the road vs lefties, the Rays had a wRC+ of 107 hosting righties. Here we have two pitchers with terrific careers in the downside of their playing days. Kluber hasn’t faced the Rays since 2018, and Hill hasn’t taken on the Bronx Bombers since 2016. So we can throw away any past pitcher records. What we can look at is if the advanced stats can lead us to victory. We already know the Yankees worst subset last year was facing lefties on the road. Because of the short right field porch in Yankees Stadium the team stacks its lineup with pull happy lefties. Looking at Hard Hit % on the season NY ranks 21st and Tampa 23rd. As good as the Yankees have been with the high payroll the last few years, Tampa Bay has matched up well against them. Last year the Rays took 8 of 10, and over two years Tampa Bay leads 15 to 14. Give us the Rays here is a nice home underdog role. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-08-21 | Angels +103 v. Blue Jays | 7-5 | Win | 103 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
915 LA Angels at Toronto Canning & Stripling In 2020 the Angels had a wRC+ of 97 on the road vs righties, Toronto had a wRC+ of 110 hosting righties. This game is being played in Dunedin Florida. Griffin Canning is a talented youngster who has had major injuries in his young career. When he is healthy he is someone under the radar we want to back. We never understood the Ross Stripling signing in Toronto. His deficiencies were being masked by pitching in the NL West. Just look at his stats last year when not pitching in Dodger Stadium. In 22.2 innings on the road he permitted 16 earned runs and had a WHIP of 1.558. Against the American League he permitted 17 earned runs in only 19.1 innings of work. In his only start this year he had a game score of 37. Allowing three earned runs in 3.1 innings. Simply put he is a gas can when facing quality offenses, and the Angels can get to him very early. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-07-21 | Rays +106 v. Red Sox | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
967 Tampa Bay at Boston Yarbrough & Eovaldi In 2020 Tampa had a wRC+ of 104 on the road vs righties, Boston had an 86 wRC+ hosting lefties. The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series, but its clear Tampa has the better team. Over the past 2+ seasons the Rays have won 19 of the 31 meetings in this series. We also prefer the lefty starter in this contest, along with the better bullpen. Nathan Eovaldi finished last year with five straight better than average performances, and he looked good in his first outing. But we remain sceptic of his progress. Give us the better team off back to back losses. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-06-21 | White Sox -140 v. Mariners | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
925 Chicago White Sox at Seattle Giolito & Paxton In 2020 Chicago had a 129 wRC+ on the road vs lefties, Seattle 85 hosing righties. If you remember back to last season the White Sox feasted on lefties, with the best won/loss record in the league. They are already 1-0 in that regard this year, and will be facing a Seattle lefty for the second straight game on Tuesday. Giolito is expected to have success against this weaker Seattle lineup, and we simply love this Chicago bullpen. The Mariners have a good young corps of players in the upper minors, who will help the team later on this season. But they likely have no answers for the dominant Chicago offense. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-05-21 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +135 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
966 Toronto at Texas Matz & Foltynewicz Last year the Jays had a 101 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Texas an 89 wRC+ hosting lefties. Tough spot for Toronto after really getting up to play the Yankees in New York. After winning two of three there has to be some type of letdown here against one of the weaker teams in baseball. Both pitchers have struggled with injuries. Just can’t turn down the host in this price range. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-04-21 | Astros v. A's -106 | 9-2 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
922 Houston at Oakland Urquidy & Manaea Houston had a 72 wRC+ last year on the road vs lefties. Oakland a 108 wRC+ hosting righties. The past three seasons Houston has won 16 of 31 meetings, including all three games of this series. But Brantley was hit by a pitch on his wrist yesterday and will likely sit this one out. Manaea is often overlooked in this rotation but he is a solid MLB starter. We lost on the A’s yesterday, our only defeat on a five game multi-sport card. We give Oakland another chance here as we like this pitching matchup. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-04-21 | Indians v. Tigers +121 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
916 Cleveland at Detroit Civiale & Skubal Last year Cleveland on the road vs lefties had an 87 wRC+, and already have been shut down by Matthew Boyd on opening day. Detroit had an 82 wRC+ hosting righties. Many people we trust are enamored by Aaron Civale, but while he is a solid number three starter, we lack that same judgement. We just haven’t been enamored by what he has accomplished. The future may be bright, but until we see it on a regular basis we can only judge him on what he has done. Skubal blew people away in record numbers in the minors, and simply put this Indians lineup is very weak. Money has come in on the host, but there is still plenty of value on the young lefty. Look for the Tigers to continue the Cleveland offensive downfall. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-04-21 | Orioles +150 v. Red Sox | 11-3 | Win | 150 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
917 Baltimore at Boston Zimmerman & Richards In 2020 Baltimore had a 111 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Boston an 86 wRC+ hosting lefties. As bad as the Orioles have been the past few years they have won 14 of 31 games against the Sox, including the first two this season. This line is simply too high and has slowly been bet down overnight. Can’t trust the often injured Richards to go more than four innings here. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-04-21 | Braves -108 v. Phillies | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 53 m | Show | |
903 Atlanta at Philadelphia Anderson & Eflin In 2020 the Braves had a road wRC+ of 114 vs righties, the Phillies 114 at home vs righties. This game opened up with the Braves being a sizable favorite, but has now been bet down too much in our opinion. Anderson could end up being the ace of this team by the end of the year. That’s really saying something as the front of this rotation is loaded. Eflin is nothing but a mid-rotation starter in our opinion. Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series, but the Braves are clearly the better team. With both teams playing the vast majority of starters today, the Braves get into the win column. PLAY ATLANTA |
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04-03-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -116 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
958 St Louis at Cincinnati In 2020 St Louis on the road vs righties had an 87 xRC+, Cincy at home vs righties a 109 wRC+. We have these two rated very close with the Cardinals having a slight edge. But in addition to the home field advantage, we much prefer Taylor Mahle over Adam Wainwright. Mahle is one of the pitchers we are expecting to break out this season. Hats off to Wainwright for an outstanding career, but at this time his best days are far in the distance. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-03-21 | Astros v. A's +130 | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
972 Houston at Oakland The Astros had a 72 wRC+ on the road vs lefties last year, the A’s a 108 wRC+ home vs righties. Houston has won 16 of the last 31 games played in this series, so just about as even as you can get. The Astros have outscored the Athletics 17 to 6 in the opening two games. McCullers in his last four starts against Oakland had game scores of 60, 26, 61 and 48, an average of 49. League average is 50, so he has been basically an average pitcher in those contests. Cole Irvin has a 47 average game score in his three career starts vs the Astros. Once again, very similar to McCullers. So based on head to head history, and preseason projections these teams are very similar. Yet based on the line we find nice home underdog value on the Athletics. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-02-21 | Giants +106 v. Mariners | 6-3 | Win | 106 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
927 San Francisco at Seattle Cueto & Kikuchi In 2020 the Giants had a wRC+ of 113 on the road vs lefties, the Mariners home vs righties an 85 xRC+. Kikuchi has been highly publicized for improving his velocity in the offseason, but even the most confident observers would have to admit he was terrible last year. While we do think he is due for some positive regression, this price is simply too high. We like the young talent on its way for the Mariners, but this is still going to be a team fighting to stay out of the divisional cellar with the Rangers. After blowing a late lead last night we look for the Giants to be on the right side of this one. San Francisco has won 4 of the 5 meetings the last two seasons. And Johnny Cueto has a strange delivery for those who haven’t faced him. The Giants are the better team at a plus price. Can’t argue with that. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-01-21 | Astros -103 v. A's | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
983 Houston at Oakland Greinke & Bassitt The Astros had a 102 wRC+ vs righties, Oakland 105 vs righties last year. Zack Greinke has had a long career of success, he won’t be intimidated by being the number one starter. Chris Bassit we can’t be certain about. He basically came out of nowhere last year and was a solid contributor to this staff. That said, he’s certainly not a number one on this team in talent. He would be hard pressed to be a true number three in this rotation. Big fan of this Oakland offense, when it comes to depth this could be one of the deepest teams in the league. The Houston lineup enters the season fully healthy, something we didn’t see a lot of last year. And keep in mind even with those injuries and the backlash of the cheating scandal, the Astros made the playoffs. George Springer will be a sizable loss for many teams, but these Astros can beat you in many ways. How many other squads can match the speed of this team, and that’s with an aging Jose Altuve. We like the price here on the veteran Greinke. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-01-21 | White Sox -111 v. Angels | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
981 Chicago WS at LA Angels Giolitto & Bundy The White Sox had a 98 wRC+ vs righties, the Angels 112 vs righties in 2020. When looking at hard hit percentage from last year the top seven teams all made the playoffs. Chicago came in at number six, the Angels? 20th. Yes, Eloy Jimenez is out of the lineup for the majority of the season. But the Sox have been dying to get young Andrew Vaughn into the lineup. There was a lot of hype on this team before the injury, it seems to have subsided a bit since. That keeps this line in the playable range. We love the back of this White Sox bullpen, it’s loaded with good hard throwing arms. The Angels are a team we traditionally look to fade, with great success. It’s a major metro area with the face of baseball Mike Trout. They also have Shohei Ohtani, who always is an interesting story. But the truth of the matter is this team is loaded with question marks. The top four hitters are solid, but there are many concerns about the lower half of the order. The starters after Dylan Bundy need to remain healthy. Something you just can’t expect. We are a big fan of the bullpen changes in the offseason. That’s likely the strength of this team. Other than the Brewers and Rays, how many teams have made the playoffs off the strength of their bullpen? Cheap number here for the clearly more talented squad. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-01-21 | Rays v. Marlins +135 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 55 m | Show | |
988 Tampa Bay at Miami Glasnow & Alcantara The Rays had a wRC+ of 105 last year against righties, Miami 89 vs right handers. Tampa Bay is still a very good team, but maybe a few spots lower in the power ratings compared to the World Series team of a year ago. Miami has one of the best pitching rotations in baseball, especially when looking at the future. This team surprised everyone last year, and have quality young players on the way. Tampa Bay has the better team, and the starting pitching also favors the visitor. But this line is much higher than we expected. Baseball betting is all about taking value, and the Rays are simply overrated in the betting markets. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-01-21 | Twins -105 v. Brewers | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
985 Minnesota at Milwaukee Maeda & Woodruff The Twins had a 108 wRC+ against righties, the Brewers 84 vs righties last season. Be warned the Twins best hitter DH Nelson Cruz will not be in the starting lineup, he’s a true DH that doesn’t play the field. He will likely get a pitch hitting assignment. This Minnesota team, just like its division rival Chicago squad, is loaded. The back of the bullpen is elite, and the offense doesn’t have a weakness. Kenta Maeda was up for the Cy Young last year and we could very well see a repeat. This is a legit World Series contender, just hope they don’t catch the Yankees in the early rounds. Milwaukee is a good team, but not great. We love Woodruff and Burnes, but the back of the rotation has challenges. The players they signed in the offseason aren’t much better than the ones they let go. There is young talent, but for the most part unproven. In this price range there is only one way to look. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays -129 | 7-4 | Loss | -129 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
902 Houston and Tampa Bay Big hitting advantage for the Rays here as we see a battle of lefties taking the mound. Tampa Bay is fourth in baseball with a wRC+ of 121 on the season. Houston on the other hand is 20th with a 94 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is 100. Houston has struggled away from home with a 13-25 record, while Tampa sits at 22-14 away from the Trop. The Rays also have a huge back of the bullpen advantage going 4-3 in extra innings, and 16-7 in one run games. The Astros counter with 2-7 in extras and 12-15 in one run contests. The Rays put this series in the rearview mirror tonight. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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10-13-20 | Rays -106 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
967 Tampa Bay & Houston The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs righties, while the Astros are 94 wRC+ against southpaws. The major advantage from a pitching standpoint is the Tampa Bay bullpen, as we simply do not trust the pitchers in this Houston pen. Case in point is the records in extra innings and one run games. Tampa is a combined 19-8 while Houston sits at 12-22. The fact is this Tampa team is built to win close games. Throw in the fact that the Rays are 21-12 on the road, and Houston is 13-25 away from home, and we have quite an edge with the Rays. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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10-06-20 | Marlins +185 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
909 Miami at Atlanta The Marlins have a 111 wRC+ vs lefties, while the Braves are 126 vs righties. Both teams hitting much better than league average. Miami has the better road record, 22-14 vs 16-14. Sandy Alcantara has a 59 average game score in three starts against the Braves. Max Fried has a 48 average game score in his last five starts against Miami. Overall the past seven starts have shown both pitchers with a 55 average game score. While we understand that the Braves should be favored, this line is very much inflated in our eyes. PLAY MIAMI |
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09-30-20 | Cardinals +150 v. Padres | Top | 7-4 | Win | 150 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
949 St Louis at San Diego Nice price on the road underdog Cardinals here. Kwang Hyun Kim has an average game score of 60 in his last seven starts. But a closer look shows just how hard he is to hit the first time you see him. Against Milwaukee the first time he posted a 74 game score, down to 54 in his next start against the Brewers. Facing Pittsburgh for the first time he had a 66 game score, but dropped to 43 the second time the Pirates saw him. Same with Cincinnati, 69 the first time and 63 the second. Obviously this is the first time he will face San Diego. Chris Paddack regressed as expected this season. He got off to a red hot start last year and faded a bit down the stretch. This year he has a 4.73 ERA and his last seven starts show him as a league average 50 game score. Clear pitching advantage here for the underdog. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -115 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
937 Chicago White Sox at Oakland Oakland has a wRC+ of 104 vs righties, but the Sox have a whopping 143 wRC+ vs lefties. In fact, Chicago is 14-0 on the season when facing a lefty starter. Luzardo has a 51 average game score in his last seven starts. Giolito in that same time frame is at 67. Lucas G has faced the A’s twice in his career posting game scores of 53 and 66, league average is 50. The Sox enter this series slumping a bit, but that just helps keep this line in control. Keep in mind that teams did not face equal schedules this year. The White Sox competed in a division with three playoff teams, the A’s on the other hand had themselves and Houston. Can’t understand why the A’s would throw a lefty against this lineup, but we will take advantage of it. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -167 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -167 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
934 Houston at Minnesota Minnesota has a 108 to 102 wRC+ advantage on the season vs righties, compared to Houston. The Astros have been terrible on the road with a 9-23 record. The Twins have been outstanding at home with a 24-7 mark. When playing .500 teams or better the Astros stand at 4-13 on the season, while Minnesota is 18-12. In the last seven starts overall Greinke has a 47 average game score, his best start was a 56 against the lowly Texas offense. Kenta Maeda has likely been the best free agent signing this season. His average game score in his last seven starts has been 65. His worst start of 56 equalled Greinke’s best start. This is the third straight series Houston is playing on the road, while the Twins are playing its third straight series at home. The price is steep but for good reason. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-25-20 | Reds v. Twins -134 | 7-2 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
920 Cincinnati at Minnesota Hitting against righties the Twins have a 110 to 94 wRC+ advantage. Tyler Mahle has fit in well with the Reds, but a closer examination shows he has been much better at home than on the road. On the road he has been a league average starter with a 50 game score, but when at home his game score numbers have been 63, 58, 71, 74 and 45. Jose Berrios has been very consistent with game scores of 78, 45, 68, 53 and 67 his last six outings. With the Twins being 23-5 at home this season, this number looks like a bargain. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-21-20 | White Sox +104 v. Indians | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
905 Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Offensively looking at wRC+ the White Sox have a 24% hitting advantage in this contest. Aaron Civale has faced Chicago four times in the last two years with an average game score of 53. His last three overall starts at Progressive Field have shown game scores of 48, 57 and 53. Dane Dunning has been very impressive with an average game score of 60 since his promotion. In his first game against an opponent his numbers are 47, 73, 68 and 70. He has been especially good when teams haven’t seen him before, and this will be the first time the Tribe has faced him. The White Sox are fighting for the top spot in the playoffs, while Cleveland is basically locked into the Wild Card contest. Look for a big effort out of Dunning and the Sox here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-20-20 | Royals +140 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
967 Kansas City at Milwaukee Neither team is very good vs right-handers, with Milwaukee at a wRC+ of 85 and the Royals at 89. But we do like the pitching matchup for Kansas City. Brad Keller has a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. He hasn’t given up a home run in 43.2 innings of work. Is it sustainable? Of course not, but in the last three seasons he has only allowed 22 homers in 349.1 total innings. So he has long term homer suppression. He is built up to go a long way today with his last three starts showing total pitches of 111, 106 and 103. Josh Lindblom has a 48 average game score this season. His return to the majors hasn’t been as smooth as he would have liked. He hasn’t gotten a victory in his last six starts. We don’t think he and the Brewers deserve to be substantial favorites here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-19-20 | Braves v. Mets +143 | 2-7 | Win | 143 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
920 Atlanta at New York Mets Two highly touted starters take the hill in the Big Apple tonight. Ian Anderson has been terrific in his first four starts with an average game score of 65. He has been fortunate with the long ball allowing a single home run over 22 innings of work. David Peterson hasn’t been as flashy, but he did put up a 57 game score the first time he faced these Braves. The Braves pound vs righties, but only have a 93 wRC+ vs lefties this season. The Mets on the other hand dominate righties with a 128 wRC+ on the season, tied for first in all of baseball. Nice spot to fade the start of Anderson, catching the Mets at home at an inflated price. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-17-20 | Dodgers v. Rockies +150 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
918 Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Could very well be a letdown spot here for the Dodgers after taking 2 of 3 against the up and coming Padres. LA is only posting a wRC+ of 101 vs lefties, while the Rockies come is with a wRC+ of 94 vs southpaws. So the LA offensive advantage is minimal. Urias hasn’t been very good against the Rockies with an average game score of 39 in his last five matchups. In Colorado his scores have been 24, 39 and 38. Freeland is having a really strong year despite back to back 27 and 25 games scores 3 and 4 starts ago. He’s bounced back with 69 and 58 game scores his last two outings against the Padres and Angels. After facing the Astros and Padres, there is value against the Dodgers tonight. PLAY COLORADO |
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09-16-20 | Indians v. Cubs -101 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
976 Cleveland at Chicago Cubs The Indians have now lost seven straight games. In a season of 60 a streak of this kind can really be a killer. And that’s what has happened as just a week or so ago the Tribe was battling for first place in the division. How it’s hanging on to the last Wild Card spot. Aaron Civale has a 55 average game score his last seven starts, but five of those came against the dregs of the league when hitting righties. Detroit has a wRC+ of 84, Kansas City 90, Milwaukee 81, Pittsburgh 62 and St Louis 96. All below the league average of 100. The Cubs sit at 102 wRC+ on the season. Jon Lester isn’t nearly the pitcher he used to be, but he has had no problem with the Tribe. In his last five starts against the Indians his average game score was 64, with a 1.73 ERA. He is coming off his best start of the season, and Cleveland’s wRC+ vs lefties is 75. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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09-16-20 | Braves v. Orioles +165 | 1-5 | Win | 165 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
962 Atlanta at Baltimore Battle of two lefties tonight in Baltimore. Cole Hamels returns from the DL for his first appearance of the season. His pitch count will likely be low since he has been out so long. While once a legit top of the line starter, he’s now just an average MLB pitcher. Keegan Akin looked great in his first two starts of the year. But as expected the Yankees saw him twice in the same week and the second start resulted in a 30 game score. Now that he’s facing the Braves for the first time we expect a successful outing. We’ve always loved backing unknown left-handed starters the first time through the league. Baltimore should have a solid pitching edge here. As good as the Braves have been this season vs righties, their wRC+ vs lefties is only 89, 11% worse than league average. Baltimore comes in at a wRC+ of 102 against southpaws. Nice underdog price here with the O’s. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-11-20 | Reds v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
920 Cincinnati at St Louis The Cardinals have dominated this series the past three seasons winning 29 of 45 meetings. Adam Wainwright isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in the past but his command and control this season has been excellent. Wainwright has just nine walks in 40.1 innings of work. He’s also been one of the most consistent starters in all of baseball. In six 2020 starts his game scores have been 66, 59, 57, 49, 78 and 58. Keep in mind the MLB average is 50, so you know when you bet on Wainwright in 2020 you are going to get a good effort. Luis Castillo has had nice success against the Cards with an average game score of 56 in his last five starts in this series. But in his last seven starts overall he is a league average of 50. Cincinnati is only averaging 3.4 runs per contest offensively its last ten games, with a high of six. This isn’t a team crossing the plate on a regular basis. On the season vs righties the Cards are a league average 100, while the Reds are 89, 11% worse than league average. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-10-20 | Giants +165 v. Padres | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
967 San Francisco at San Diego Two righties go dead to head in this one as Cahill and Paddock do battle. Both teams have hit righties well this year with the Padres coming in at a wRC+ of 125 and the Giants 110. That give the host a 15% offensive edge. But when looking at the starters it’s been Trevor Cahill who has had the more impressive season. His game scores this year have been 50, 50, 68, 53 and 53. All league average or better. Chris Paddack is averaging a 47 game score on the season. In his MLB career he has permitted 33 home runs in just 188 innings. Even in his last two starts in which he didn’t allow a homer, his average game score was just 52. Over the last three seasons the Giants have won 22 of the 41 meetings. Over the last ten games overall, the Giants have scored 71 runs while allowing just 36. And you are going to make them an underdog of this magnitude? We don’t think so, give us the Giants at this inflated price. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-09-20 | Royals +180 v. Indians | Top | 3-0 | Win | 180 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
903 Kansas City at Cleveland Danny Duffy has pitched very well on the road this year. His last four road starts graded out with game scores of 46, 64, 64 and 52. Considering that those four games were against the White Sox, Twins, Cubs and Tigers is even more impressive. When grading by wRC+ the Sox are 150 and the Tigers are 132, the top two teams in baseball vs lefties. And we know how good the Cubs and Twins are offensively. Carlos Carrasco is often heavily bet because of his name, but his average game score in his last seven starts is 54. Good but not overly impressive. In fact, his last five starts against the Tigers graded out at 48. The Indians deserve to be favored today but this line is much too high. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-08-20 | Angels -123 v. Rangers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
971 Los Angeles Angels at Texas Andrew Heaney faced the Rangers a month ago and was hit hard resulting in a 29 game score. But his previous four starts against Texas were game scores of 64, 62, 84 and 69. On the season Texas is 2nd last in baseball vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. The Rangers enter this game dropping 8 of 9 overall. Lance Lynn was hoping to be traded at the deadline, but that didn’t happen. His first start after that disappointment was his worst start of the season, a 37 game score against the Astros. With Texas just playing out the string and bringing up your players for an audition for the future, we can’t see Lynn overly excited to bring his “A” game from here on out. The Angels have a 120 wRC+ vs righties, good for fifth best in baseball. This number has been bought up by the wise guys overnight, but still has plenty of value. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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09-07-20 | Rays +110 v. Nationals | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
911 Tampa Bay at Washington The Nationals return home off a long road trip in which it won just 2 of 10 games. Washington is only 6-13 on the season at home. The Nationals wRC+ against righties is 94, 6% below league average. Tampa Bay has a 110 wRC+ vs righties and are 14-7 on the season on the road. Morton and Scherzer come out virtually equal on the mound, and we prefer the Rays bullpen in this matchup. Better team with a plus price than has proven themselves on the road. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-06-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -119 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
976 Texas at Seattle Jordan Lyles has been a train wreck this season. His five starts have resulted in game scores of 10, 23, 39, 47 and 36. Two of those starts came against Seattle. The Mariners have a 102 wRC+ vs righties, and have won 7 of its last 10 games overall. Justin Dunn has been a league average pitcher this season, despite allowing five homers in his 27 innings of work. Texas against righties have a wRC+ of 62, 38% worse than league average. The Rangers have lost 8 of 10 games as of late, scoring four runs or less 8 of those 10 games. With a 7-15 record vs right-handed pitchers, and a 4-15 record on the road, we will lay it with the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-06-20 | Nationals +124 v. Braves | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
957 Washington at Atlanta The numbers say the Nationals are only 5-21 on the season vs righties. But that’s not the entire picture, as they have a wRC+ of 96, just 4% below the MLB average. Josh Tomlin has done a nice job in the Braves bullpen. But because of injuries and lack of performance he’s now in the starting rotation. In his three starts this season his game scores have been 38, 36 and 43. The past three seasons he has pitched 172.1 innings and has allowed 43 homers! He gave up the long ball on a regular basis when in Cleveland also. Patrick Corbin in his last five starts vs Atlanta has an average game score of 56. League average is 50. He allows less than one homer per game the past three seasons. The Braves have a wRC+ of 78 against lefties. Nice price here with the reigning champions. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
926 Texas at Seattle The Rangers are dead last in the league vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. That’s 35% worst than an average team. The Rangers have also dropped 7 of its last 9 games overall, while scoring 4 runs or less in 8 of 10 games. Justus Sheffield has an average game score of 55 in his last four outings. Kyle Gibson on the other hand has put up game scores of 41, 37, 35, 52 and 30 his last five starts. Seattle has a 101 wRC+ on the season vs righties. Money has been flowing towards the Mariners all day, and we agree. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-04-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -126 | 6-5 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
980 Arizona at San Francisco The Diamondbacks are 1-9 on the season vs lefties with a wRC+ of 64, tied for worst in baseball. Tyler Anderson is facing Arizona for the third time in the last two weeks. In his last outing against this squad he struggled badly with an 18 game score. We expect the young southpaw to make the needed adjustments against this Arizona team who has dropped 9 of its last 10 games overall. Taylor Clark looked good against the Giants last time out with a 67 game score. But his previous three games against San Francisco resulted in game scores of 29, 22 and 54. With the Giants having a 106 wRC+ vs righties, also with the Diamondbacks being 5-15 away from home. We have plenty of value on the host. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-03-20 | White Sox -134 v. Royals | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
913 Chicago WS at Kansas City Looking to jump on this Sox lineup once again when facing a lefty. Now 11-0 on the season with a league leading wRC+ of 157. A full 23% higher than the next best team. Dylan Cease has road game scores of 58, 51 and 57 his last three away starts. This is his third start against the Royals this year with game scores of 57 and 56. Normally you would look for some type of letdown after facing Minnesota, but the Sox dropped those last two meetings. So therefore we can probably ignore the letdown here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-02-20 | Tigers +154 v. Brewers | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
967 Detroit at Milwaukee We cashed big on the Tigers yesterday, and yet for the second straight game the Brewers are taking money. Spencer Turnbull should be a major money maker this year after 6.06 and 4.61 ERA’s the past two seasons. What we love about the Tigers righty is that he doesn’t give up the long ball. The last three seasons he has permitted just 15 home runs in 195 innings. The Tigers are 12-13 vs righties with a wRC+ of 94, while the Brewers are 10-14 with a wRC+ of 70. Detroit is 8-6 on the road, while Milwaukee is 7-10 at home. Adrian Houser got out of the gate fast this season, but has faltered as of late. Game scores of 42, 47, 45 and 30. Not ideal when the league average is 50. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-02-20 | Cardinals +141 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
953 St Louis at Cincinnati Not only did the Cardinals pound the Reds last night 16-2, but they have dominated this series 29-15 the past three years. Tyler Mahle has an average game score of 43 the last five meetings with St Louis. The Cards are 13-11 vs righties with a wRC+ of 109. The Reds are 10-17 vs righties with a wRC+ of 93. Cincinnati is also just 7-11 at home. The Reds bullpen used five pitchers last night, each throwing 19 pitches or more. That included key late inning relievers like Bradley, Thornburg, Jones and Iglesias. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-02-20 | Giants +128 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
951 San Francisco at Colorado Kyle Freeland has a 46 average game score against the Giants the last five meetings. His last three games overall at home produced game scores of 27, 56 and 46. The only quality start was against Arizona who is second worst in baseball vs left-handers. The Giants have a 119 wRC+ against lefties. Colorado is 9-16 vs righties with a wRC+ of 75, fourth worst in the majors. Here are the pitch counts from the Colorado bullpen yesterday, 50, 32, 27 and 23. Want no part of these free falling Rockies who are just 8-12 at home. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-01-20 | Tigers +180 v. Brewers | 12-1 | Win | 180 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
915 Detroit at Milwaukee Both starting pitchers have really struggled to open the season. Fulmer coming off injury, and Lindblom returning from South Korea. Detroit will likely go to the bullpen first as Fulmer’s high pitch count has been 63. But that’s probably a good thing considering the struggles of these starters. Detroit has a better record against righties, 11-13 to 10-13. The wRC+ numbers show Detroit at 89, and Milwaukee at 70. So we get the better hitting team vs righties catching a huge plus payoff. Add in the fact that the Tigers are 7-6 on the road and Brewers 7-9 at home. This line makes no sense whatsoever. It’s all based on name recognition and not 2020 reality. We simply cannot pass up this overlay. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-31-20 | Padres +105 v. Rockies | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
969 San Diego at Colorado Neither starter has gotten off to the starts they had planned. Both come in off back to back poor performances. The Padres are 16-9 vs righties on the season with a wRC+ of 125, second best in baseball. Colorado against righties are 9-14 with a 79 wRC+. San Diego is playing the much better ball as of late, and management is doing everything it can to upgrade this roster. Nice price with the better team. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-31-20 | Mariners +136 v. Angels | 2-1 | Win | 136 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
953 Seattle at LA Angels Nice advantages all around for the Mariners here. Seattle comes in with a 100 wRC+ against righties, while the Angels are just an 82 wRC+ against lefties. Marco Gonzales has faced LA twice this year with game scores of 68 and 66. Jaime Barria is making his first start of the season, after posting a 6.42 ERA in 2019. He’s very prone to the long ball, allowing 41 homers in just 221.1 innings of work the past three seasons. Over the last month Seattle is just 12-18, while the Angels are only 10-20. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-29-20 | Mariners +160 v. Angels | 3-16 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
979 Seattle at LA Angels Came up a bit short with our big plus money play on the Mariners last night. But we are finding value once against with this Seattle club. Over the past three seasons Seattle has a 23-22 record in this series. Dylan Bundy got off to a great start for the Angels but has faded as of late with 37 and 48 game scores. He is very prone to the long ball allowing 74 homers in just 380.2 innings of work. Hard to lay this number with a guy allowing two home runs per nine innings. Justus Sheffield was highly touted and his last three starts show why. Game scores of 71, 57 and 60 show he is finally living up to expectations. On the season the Angels have a 73 wRC+ vs lefties, 27% worse than league average. The Mariners are 102 vs right-handers. Great price with the visitor tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |