Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-16 | Orioles -109 v. Rays | 2-5 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
967 Baltimore at Tampa Bay Uber prospect Dylan Bundy makes the start today for the O’s. Bundy was highly thought of in baseball circles before Tommy John surgery. He’s been pitching out of the Oriole bullpen as he’s looking to get back to where he was in his minor league career. Bundy has been pitching well in relief, and while he will be on a pitch count here we like him enough to back him on Sunday. The Orioles tee off on righties and Baltimore continues to surprise in the standings. Tampa Bay has been a disappointment and now there is talk of the team being sellers at the trade deadline.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-16-16 | Brewers -101 v. Reds | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
905 Milwaukee at CincinnatiWe came up a run short yesterday with our play on the Brewers, but we are back on Milwaukee today. The visitor owns the much better starter and the Reds really struggle against right handed starters. The bullpens and the defense gives us a slight edge and we still have these historical edges. The Reds are 80-140 playing a team with a better record, and 20-45 in that situation at home. Let’s back the Brewers to even up the series.PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-15-16 | Brewers +138 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
955 Milwaukee at CincinnatiCan’t understand the early money coming in on the Reds here. Cincinnati has proven themselves not to be favored over virtually anyone. The Reds are a poor hitting team against righties and the starting pitcher matchup is equally week from both sides.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is 79-140 when playing a team with a better record. That’s an 18.2% ROI. They are also 19-45 at home when playing a team with a better record, a whopping 35.9% ROI. Simply put the Reds should in no way be a favorite of this magnitude here, even against Matt Garza.PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-10-16 | Yankees v. Indians -131 | 11-7 | Loss | -131 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
918 New York at Cleveland The 11 inning victory yesterday for the Yankees is costly when looking at the available relief pitchers for today. Betances threw 21 pitches, Miller 35 and Chapman 32. Those were season highs for your 8th and 9th inning relievers. With a weak long and middle relief corps for New York, Tanaka will have to go very deep here for this not to hurt the visitor. Carrasco rates slightly better from the starter standpoint and other than Allen and Hunter the rest of the Tribe bullpen is available. Better bats and a big home field advantage help the Tribe this afternoon. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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07-09-16 | Braves +168 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
979 Atlanta at Chicago The Braves shocked the Sox yesterday as they pounded Chris Sale. We expect that positive momentum to continue on Saturday. Chicago used four pitchers out of the pen and threw 72 pitches in doing so. While the starter edge favors the Sox, the team as a whole has been in a severe down spin. The Braves are 9-6 this year off a game in which its bullpen has allowed multiple runs. Bad teams off a win are 73-75 this year with an ROI of 10.4%. We will take advantage of an inflated line here and back the dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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07-08-16 | Mariners -106 v. Royals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at Kansas City Short and sweet. We have a sizable starting pitching edge to go along with the better offense. The defensive and relief pitching angles are virtually even, and the Mariners hit much better against righties than do the Royals. We will back the team who blew a ninth inning lead last night. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-05-16 | Angels v. Rays -145 | 13-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
970 Los Angeles at Tampa Bay Sizable pitching edge for the host as we simply can’t trust Tim Lincecum on the hill. While the Angels own the better bullpen all other advantages are with the host. A significant edge is defensively and with an offense that performs much better in this building. Tampa has also fared better against righties while the Angel offense is less than average on the road. According to SportsDataBase.com the Angels are 19-46 -35.0% ROI as a dog off a road game in which the bullpen allowed multiple runs. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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07-04-16 | A's v. Twins -118 | 3-1 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
922 Oakland at Minnesota Based on the year Nolasco is having this is a huge pitching edge for the Twins. Minnesota owns the much better defense and the other overall stats are a wash. According to SportsDataBase.com the A’s are 19-45 with a -34.2% ROI as a dog when facing an opposing starter with an ERA of over 4.0. The Twins on the other hand are 25-11 as a favorite off a home comeback win. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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07-03-16 | Pirates +140 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 140 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
977 Pittsburgh at Oakland The Pirates were good to us last night as they outlasted the A’s. We’re going right back with the Bucs here as we feel this starting pitcher matchup is much closer than what it looks like on the surface. Pittsburgh rakes against righties and the A’s have a lineup which has struggled at times with left handers. Too much of a gap between these two in this line as we feel the Pirates have plenty of value tonight. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-02-16 | Pirates +140 v. A's | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
927 Pittsburgh at Oakland Major go against spot here for the A’s who have Rich Hill returning from the DL. The Pirates pound lefties and the price is inflated by throwing an unknown starter. This game is one of those system plays that take advantage of a named pitcher who will be very careful on the mound today. The better hitting Pirates at a nice underdog price is the play today. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-01-16 | Orioles -102 v. Mariners | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
973 Baltimore at Seattle |
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06-30-16 | Cubs -124 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
905 Chicago at New YorkNice time to go against the fading Mets after the Nationals took it to them in a key divisional battle. According to SportsDataBase.com Chicago has been outstanding after winning and never trailing posting a 79-47 record with an 11.5% ROI. This team is also 35-14 with a 17.6% ROI as a favorite after the bullpen went at least an inning without allowing a run. The Chicago bullpen has the edge here and it’s set up perfectly for this series. The starting pitching edge is slight for the host but all other intangibles point toward the Cubs.PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-28-16 | Dodgers -131 v. Brewers | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
905 Los Angeles at MilwaukeeThe Dodgers bullpen went 4 innings of shutout ball yesterday which portends well for the visitor tonight. Urias has been outstanding as of late after getting hit hard early on in his first few tastes of the majors. LA is 37-13 as a favorite after allowing 6 hits or less according to SportsDataBase.com. The Dodgers own every edge in this contest with the exception of possibly late inning relief as Jansen had to throw 23 pitches yesterday. Nice price for a team with solid edges all around.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-27-16 | Cardinals v. Royals -115 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
968 St Louis at Kansas City The Cardinals are very good against lefties but Danny Duffy is finally living up to his high praise when coming up in the system. The ratings we use have him clearly the better pitcher here as Wainwright has been slow to come back to his previous form after TJ surgery.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Royals are 22-11 off a home game i which they permitted 6 or fewer hits. Also, 32-13 off a home game in which they scored 5 or more runs. With Alex Gordon back in the lineup this KC offense is much more dangerous. With the bullpen in good shape after a nice start yesterday we will back the Royals here in this inter league rivalry contest.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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06-26-16 | Mets -140 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
907 NY Mets at Atlanta Amazingly the Braves are just 13-33 after playing in extra innings. That points to a weakened bullpen. It also means the starter the following day has to go deep in the game. With Norris on the hill that’s a major advantage for the Mets. According to SportsDataBase.com New York is 46-17 as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which it won and never trailed. That points to the strength on this Mets bullpen. New York has advantages across the board in this contest and the line is priced very fairly. Let’s look for Bartolo Colon to provide the betting value we often see with him on the mound.PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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06-25-16 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +113 | 10-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
968 Toronto at Chicago Wrong team favored here in our opinion as Gonzalez is a major upgrade on Dickey when in comes to putting runners on base. The major edge is in bases on balls as Dickey and his knuckleball produce a great deal of walks. With virtually every other category being even the Sox should have been installed as the slight favorite here. In what we consider a pick em game we will gladly take the plus money with the host.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-24-16 | Indians -107 v. Tigers | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
919 Cleveland at Detroit There was a long time when the Tribe couldn’t get over the hill against the Tigers. But that dominance is no longer in play as Cleveland is no longer intimidated by the Motor City.Cleveland owns the clear pitching edge here and the Tigers are coming off an extra inning game in which it used four pitchers for five innings. The defense is also an edge for the visitor and the price is right. It’s not often you get Danny Salazar in this price range.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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06-22-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers -130 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
908 Washington at Los Angeles Significant pitching and defensive edges for the Dodgers here as Urias has gotten better each time out. The LA bullpen also is in a positive situation after going more than an inning without allowing an earned run. Washington hasn’t been able to take advantage of pitchers with an ERA of 4 or more, posting a 110-162 record with a negative ROI of 17.2% as per SportsDataBase.com.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-21-16 | Phillies +127 v. Twins | 10-14 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
977 Philadelphia at MinnesotaSimply can’t trust Duffey and the Twins here in the favorite role. We are well aware of the Phillies lack of offense but Nola is a superior pitcher, and he’s in the underdog role. Philly has the relief and the defensive edges to stymie this questionable Twins offense.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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06-21-16 | Rays +162 v. Indians | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
963 Tampa Bay at ClevelandKluber is often overpriced despite no fault of his own. The Indians just don’t hit when he takes the mound. It’s been a long term problem that has cost him many wins over the years.Cleveland must face highly regarded Blake Snell tonight, a pitcher with a bright upside. The Rays own the lefty/righty hitting advantage and the defense and relief advantages are minimal. Good price on Tampa Bay Tuesday night.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-17-16 | Rockies v. Marlins -104 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
956 Colorado at MiamiThe Rockies have long been a team that you want to play against on the road. The altitude adjustment is such that this team has a strong home advantage but has been a consistent money burner on the road.Here we find a team that doesn’t hit lefties all that well and is subpar offensively away fro home. Nice price on a quality starter at home for the Marlins.PLAY MIAMI |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -170 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
968 Detroit at ChicagoWe don’t often dabble in lines this high but we feel this number is a bargain based on the over adjustment to current form with Sale. He’s still an elite pitcher going against a journeyman in Pelfrey. The Tigers starter is only going 5.3 innings a start which opens up the Chicago batters to one of the worst bullpens in baseball once again. The host owns major advantages all around except for the lefty/righty hitting category, which in no way measures up to the pitching and defensive edges for the host.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-12-16 | Royals v. White Sox -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
922 Kansas City at Chicago Return visit to the mound for Ventura after being thrown out last game for hitting Manny Machado. He’s struggled this year and the coaches were on him for continuing to headhunt. Because of his past we expect Ventura to stay away from the inside of the plate here, which will only help the White Sox hitters. We rate Rodon as the clearly better starter and the White Sox the much better hitting team.Kansas City obviously owns the bullpen, but the Royals are just 3-12 this year on the road when playing a team with a worse record. A complete turnaround from the last two years when Kansas City was excellent in that role.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-11-16 | Dodgers +114 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
959 Los Angeles at San Francisco Slight starter edge for the visitor to go with a huge bullpen edge for the Dodgers. Los Angeles also owns the lefty/righty matchup as San Francisco has had troubles vs left handed starters. Overall we are getting the better complete team in this contest at a plus price.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-10-16 | Tigers +128 v. Yankees | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
915 Detroit at New YorkWhile the Yankees have the pitching edge in this one the advantage is not as wide as you may think. The reason is how well the Tigers hit left-handed pitching. Out of all the lefty/righty matches on the board today Detroit has the biggest discrepancy on the card. That’s rare for a team in this price range, so the payoff is more than fair here. The Tigers will get to CC and if Pelfrey can put up an average game the back end of the Yankees rotation won’t be able to leave the bullpen.PLAY DETROIT |
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06-07-16 | Rays +165 v. Diamondbacks | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
977 Tampa Bay at ArizonaThe American League has traditionally dominated these interleague contests, so it’s very rare to get an AL squad in this price range. The starting pitcher is clearly an edge for the Diamondbacks, but every other category goes to the visitor. The lefty/righty advantage for the Rays is the tipping point. Great value on the underdog here.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-06-16 | Astros v. Rangers +109 | 5-6 | Win | 109 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
916 Houston at TexasThe Rangers have been dynamite the last couple years in this role according to our friends at SportsDataBase.com. Texas is 27-14 with an ROI of 36.5% at home off a home game in which their bullpen went at least one inning and did not allow a run. That’s 5-1 this year. Also the Rangers are 56-25 with an ROI of 28.0% at home after playing as a home dog when facing a team with a worse record. That’s a perfect 6-0 this year.There is no starting pitching edge while Houston is the slightly better offense. The Astros have the better bullpen but not enough to have them favored here on the road. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-04-16 | Mariners -107 v. Rangers | 4-10 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at TexasSolid pitching edge for the Mariners as Nate Karns has really stepped up his game as of late. The Mariners also have a sizable advantage in the bullpen and defensively. They also hit better against lefties than the Rangers do against righties. The price is right with the better all-around team on Saturday.PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-03-16 | Rays v. Twins +110 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
978 Tampa Bay at MinnesotaJake Odorizzi has been a highly thought of pitcher in this organization for a while. While he is very talented his numbers at this level have been less than impressive. Yet he continues to be credited more on his potential than actual results.Ricky Nolasco has been a journeyman for most of his career, but this season he has been at the top of his game. When handicapping starters you have to take into consideration the current levels these two are pitching at, and Nolasco is having the better year. Our friends at SportsDataBase.com point out that the Twins are 25-17 when the bullpen pitches at least a full inning without allowing a run, which has been a solid handicapping angle for the league as a whole. Nice value tonight on the host.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-01-16 | Mariners v. Padres +164 | 6-14 | Win | 164 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
980 Seattle at San Diego As we’ve mentioned in the past King Felix has put up his normal outstanding numbers when looking at traditional stats. But when you dig deeper in his advanced numbers we find an overrated starter. His velocity is way down and his swinging strike rate has also plummeted. He’s being led by a BABIP that is way below his career numbers. So luck has been a major factor in his success. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Mariners are only 72-73 as a favorite when playing a team with a worse record, an ROI loss of 16.4%. They are also 60-83 after winning by 5 or more runs for an ROI loss of 16.2%. We will back the Padres as this line is simply way too high.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-31-16 | Rays -118 v. Royals | 5-10 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
919 Tampa Bay at Kansas CitySolid pitching edge here for Drew Smyly who is at a nice price after recent struggles. But he continues to miss bats and we see no reason to bet against him in this price range. Especially against a Kansas City team who is weak offensively when facing lefties. Tampa is a better offensive team on the road and Dillon Gee ranks slightly less than an average major league pitcher.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-30-16 | Dodgers +125 v. Cubs | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
955 Los Angeles at ChicagoGoing with the Dodgers here as a nice underdog as the pitching matchup favors the visitor here. Alex Wood struggled out of the gate but he has been outstanding as of late. Hammer has been very inconsistent, so we prefer the Dodger lefty.All other numbers are very close so we will take the Dodgers in this Memorial Day battle.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-27-16 | White Sox +132 v. Royals | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
921 Chicago at Kansas CityThis play is simply a go against the Royals as Kansas City has struggled offensively all year and is now without key offensive performers. The Royals are digging through the minors in search of help as both left field and third base are being handled by rookies. Danny Duffy has bounced between the bullpen and rotation throughout his time in the majors. While the Royals do have the starter edge here it’s not nearly pronounced enough to put them in this price range. Nice spot to get the first place White Sox as a solid underdog.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-27-16 | Dodgers +104 v. Mets | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
905 Los Angeles at New YorkdeGrom hasn’t been the same pitcher as last year and the absolute demise of Harvey has kept that fact in the background. He’s still being overpriced based on the season he had a year ago. While the line has certainly dropped since the terrible opener we feel there is still value on the Dodgers here.Julio Urias has likely been the most talked about teenager in baseball circles since Brice Harper. He’s making his major league debut at the age of 19. The Dodgers could have waited on him and brought him up later for contract reasons, but there is simply nothing for him to prove in the minors. The Mets struggle against lefties and seeing an extremely talented one for the first time is a big advantage for the visitor. We may be seeing a future Hall of Famer here if the scouts are correct.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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05-26-16 | Rockies +160 v. Red Sox | 8-2 | Win | 160 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
965 Colorado at Boston Sizable starting pitcher edge for the Rockies as we simply cannot back Clay Buchholz in this price range. Two key Red Sox infield starters left the last game and likely will sit tonight. With Boston less than 100% offensively the edges for the Red Sox are minimal.PLAY COLORADO |
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05-25-16 | Reds v. Dodgers -164 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
912 Cincinnati at Los Angeles Dodgers have the edges across the board here from starting pitcher, relief pitching and offense. Major historical edges can be found at SportsDataBase.com. The Reds are 64-116 when playing a team with a better record. Cinco is 19-52 as a dog after the bullpen allowed multiple runs. The Dodgers on the other hand are 31-11 as a favorite after allowing 6 hits or less. With the LA bullpen in solid shape and the Reds relief being a fire sale we will back the Dodgers at home at a decent price.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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05-24-16 | Angels +102 v. Rangers | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
965 LA Angels at Texas We will back the Angels here as they own a decent edge with Chacin on the mound against Perez. Most of our numbers have this game pretty equal other than the starting pitcher, but the lefty/righty advantage also goes to the visitor. Because of injuries and suspensions the Rangers have had to make major changes around the entire field. Nice value here on the road team.PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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05-23-16 | Mets +137 v. Nationals | 7-1 | Win | 137 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
901 New York Mets at WashingtonNice price for the underdog Mets here in a key divisional showdown. SportsDataBase.com shows New York is 67-44 with an ROI of 10.9% coming off a game in which the bullpen didn’t allow a run in at least an inning of work. New York had two shutout innings yesterday against the Brewers as the bullpen is set up nicely for Colon.PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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05-21-16 | Dodgers -157 v. Padres | 2-3 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
913 LA Dodgers at San Diego Substantial starting pitching edge for Alex Wood. The Dodgers have the better bullpen and far better defense. The lefty/righty lineups also favor the visitor.As per our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Padres are only 7-25 as a dog after a home game in which they used 5 or more pitchers. 112 pitches were thrown by the San Diego bullpen last night.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-20-16 | Braves v. Phillies -163 | 7-1 | Loss | -163 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
954 Atlanta at Philadelphia Edges all around for the Phillies here as Nola has a huge edge over Wisler on the mound. Philadelphia also owns big advantages in the bullpen and defensively. The offenses are roughly equal so no edge there. But according to SportsDataBase.com the Braves are just 39-65 off a road game in which the bullpen allowed multiple runs. Atlanta used five pitchers yesterday against the Pirates throwing 88 combined pitches. The Phillies on the other hand had the day off.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-18-16 | Rays +112 v. Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 112 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
971 Tampa Bay at TorontoSticking with the Rays here who own a huge starting pitcher and defensive edge in this contest. Road divisional dogs off a win have returned an ROI of 9.6% this year and 10.3% in over 2200 contests. This is a long winning system and we currently catch Odorizzi in an underdog role.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-17-16 | Yankees +114 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
927 NY Yankees at Arizona The Diamondbacks pounded the Yankees yesterday 12-2 but a key point was that none of the New York elite pitchers played in the game. The listing of pitchers for the Yankees were Green, Goody, Mullee and Coke. All the top bullpen players are fresh and available tonight. Which is a big edge when playing in a good hitting environment like Arizona. As per SportsDataBase.com the Diamondbacks are 31-52 after scoring 6 or more runs. The starter matchup is virtually equal as Greinke has taken a step back as we all expected going from pitchers parks to a hitters park in Arizona. The bullpen obviously is a huge edge for New York and the lefty/righty edges for the hitters also belongs to the Yankees. PLAY NY YANKEES |
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05-16-16 | Rays +116 v. Blue Jays | 13-2 | Win | 116 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
957 Tampa Bay at Toronto Drew Smyly against JA Happ is a sizable advantage with the starters. Happy was great in Pittsburgh but going back to Toronto is a whole different situation, and Happ has looked more like the old American League journeyman than the Pirates successful starter. Toronto is the better hitting team but we don’t like the distraction on the bench clearing brawl from yesterday. Tampa has a big defensive edge here that puts the Rays over the top. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-15-16 | Pirates v. Cubs -145 | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
908 Pittsburgh at Chicago You are not going to get the Cubs at home with Lester on the hill in this type of price range very often. Chicago has been dominating in all aspects this year and the advanced stats say this squad is even better than its record. According to SportsDataBase.com the Cubs are 67-38 after allowing 6 or fewer hits, a perfect 10-0 this season! That means when the relievers are not overused and the starters do their job its hard to score on this team in future contests. The Pirates are a good team but this squad is overmatched here, even with Cole on the hill. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-14-16 | Reds v. Phillies -165 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
956 Cincinnati at Philadelphia |
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05-14-16 | Twins v. Indians -185 | 6-3 | Loss | -185 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
970 Minnesota at Cleveland We won't sell higher priced favorites to daily customers, but we do feel this play has value and we have already bet it ourselves. According to SportsDataBase.com the Indians are a perfect 12-0 off a home game in which it allowed 6 runs or more. 26-7 overall after permitting 6 runs or better. The Tribe has been very consistent in being able to bounce back from a poor pitching performance. The starting rotation is very competitive and talented so look for Kluber to once again pitch a quality start. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-13-16 | Reds v. Phillies -116 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
906 Cincinnati at PhiladelphiaRare chance to go against the Reds on the road at a decent price. According to SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is 63-105 when playing a team with a better record. Also consider that the Reds are 19-45 as a dog after its bullpen allowed multiple runs. Philadelphia is a confident team with help on the way in the high minors. After being a laughing stock the past few years this team is starting to mature. Hellickson doesn’t dazzle so he is often underpriced. That’s the situation tonight as we back the upstart Phillies.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-12-16 | Astros v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
964 Houston at BostonBoth starters have struggled this year but there is value on the Red Sox here. Houston just went 16 innings with the Indians last night and the bullpen as you would expect was used heavily. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Astros are 31-77 on the road after using five or more pitchers. They are also just 3-17 facing a lefty after squaring off with three right handed starters. Boston has an elite bullpen, which is a huge advantage in this contest. With the much better hitting team, playing at home, you can say the Price is Right!PLAY BOSTON |
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05-10-16 | Rays -125 v. Mariners | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
973 Tampa Bay at SeattleKing Felix got the win over the Rays yesterday, but we favor Tampa Bay to bounce back tonight. Smiley continues to be underrated in the betting markets and we prefer the hitting of the Rays here in this lefty on lefty starter comparison.Seattle is only 40-58 playing at home against a team with a worse record, according to our friends at SportsDataBase.com. As you would assume a great many of those games Seattle was installed as the home favorite, which makes those stats even more alarming.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-06-16 | Dodgers +121 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
979 Los Angeles at TorontoShould be a terrific pitching matchup here as Maeda takes on Stroman. But we see some value with the Dodgers as Maeda has yet to allow a run on the road this year while Marcus has been simply average in the dome. Too much value on the dog here to not take the generous plus money with a pitcher that remains under the radar in the betting markets.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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05-04-16 | Cubs -125 v. Pirates | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
953 Cubs at PiratesThis game starts early so I’m limiting the analysis. Basically you won’t find the Cubs in this price range very often. Chicago is 40-16 when favored after allowing 6 or fewer hits. Which means the bullpen is set up well. The Pirates hit lefties well but the Cubs are playing great baseball right now.PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-03-16 | Nationals +111 v. Royals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
929 Washington at Kansas CityTanner Roark is part of an outstanding Washington organization that has been so deep in starting pitching that he has remained under the radar. The Nationals are so deep the number one pitching prospect in baseball can’t get the call-up, and others on the MLB roster are forced to pitch out of the pen. Roark has seized the opportunity this year and has been amazing. Chris Young because of his height has been a somewhat successful journeyman that fits this ballpark perfectly. But he has really struggled to hold his place in the rotation this year, and the offense has struggled all season.Washington is the better team, with the far better pitcher, and is installed as an underdog. Case closed.PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-30-16 | Indians v. Phillies +120 | 3-4 | Win | 120 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
980 Cleveland at PhiladelphiaWrong team favored here in our estimation as Eickhoff has already surpassed Bauer in our starter rankings. The Phillies are playing confident ball right now and according to Sports DataBase.com Philadelphia is 42-22 after a walk off win. Considering how bad this squad has been the past few years that is a very impressive stat. Better starter, momentum and home field give the Phillies the edge.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-29-16 | Astros v. A's +124 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 124 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
926 Houston at Oakland The rest advantage goes to the Astros here after having the day off while Oakland travels back from Detroit. But Houston hasn’t performed well in this situation. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Astros are 3-16 on the road vs a lefty after facing three straight righties. To make matters worse it’s a lefty the Astros have never faced.Sean Manaea a prized pitching prospect for the A’s is making his major league debut. We have been excited to see this big lefty with outstanding minor league numbers make the majors. He’s instantly a major pitching rotation upgrade for Oakland, and we have had great success in the past riding these young talented lefties the first time through the league. Our initial situation happens tonight in a home dog role. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-27-16 | A's v. Tigers -110 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
918 Oakland at Detroit The A’s have been very impressive on the road this year but we are siding with the reasonably priced Tigers at home today. As per our friends at SportsDataBase.com the A’s are just 12-33 as a dog when facing an opposing starter with an ERA above 4. They are also 20-40 as a dog when playing a team with a worse record.The starters play out as a virtual tie with the home field edge of Verlander. Detroit has the much superior offense while the A’s have the better relievers. Detroit’s home offense is one of the best in baseball and it’s rare we get a number one starter at this price at home.PLAY DETROIT |
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04-26-16 | Reds +141 v. Mets | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
953 Cincinnati at NY Mets Big underdog price here for the Reds and a pitcher we really like in Brandon Finnegan. He owns a sizable edge over the Mets Bartolo Colon who has made a career out of being a journeyman. We also get the Reds #2 starter as a dog against the #4 Colon. The Mets are not a home favorite we trust with this pitching matchup.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-25-16 | Cardinals +108 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-12 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
905 St Louis at Arizona Only the slightest of starting pitcher edges here for Greinke as Garcia has been dominant when healthy. While the Cardinals enjoyed a comeback win over the Padres yesterday, the Diamondbacks used eight pitchers in an extra inning affair with the Pirates. According to SportsDataBase.com the Cardinals are 56-30 after a comeback victory. With Garcia in excellent form we will side with the underdog Cards here.PLAY ST LOUIS |
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04-23-16 | Mariners +116 v. Angels | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at LA AngelsHuge starting pitching mismatch here as Felix is still a highly rated starter and Santiago isn’t highly thought of. The fact that Hector is the number three starter in this rotation tells us all we need to know about the Angels starting rotation. Felix has gotten off to a dominating start by looking at traditional numbers. But advanced stats show he’s starting to age. The key here is those stories about his demise have been overblown. Every pitcher who has put in the type of innings he has has to make adjustments. The ability to blow away the opposition is no longer consistent. But Felix has been able to adapt and become more of a pitcher and less a thrower. Too much of an overreaction here as we get Hernandez as a sizable underdog.PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-22-16 | Phillies +117 v. Brewers | 5-2 | Win | 117 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
955 Philadelphia at MilwaukeeSolid pitching advantage for the Phillies here as Nola is ranked above average and Davies below. With Davies unlikely to have success the Milwaukee bullpen will be put into play early. The Brewers used three relievers yesterday throwing 83 overall pitches. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Milwaukee is 11-25 after losing by 5 or more runs. That’s a major negative for a bullpen that already has questions.Philadelphia had the day off yesterday and the Phillies have been very good after walk off wins posting a 41-21 record. They walked off against the Mets on Wednesday.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-19-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -104 | 3-0 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
922 Tampa Bay at BostonCheap price for the Red Sox at home while facing a much less challenging offense. Coming off the powerful profile of the Blue Jays to the National League type of baseball played by the Rays, gives the Red Sox an advantage here. According to SportsDataBase.com and the SDQL the Red Sox are 52-20 when playing at home after three straight quality starts. Considering that Boston has an elite bullpen now we can only expect that winning trend to continue. While we really like Drew Smyly facing the Red Sox in Fenway is a daunting task. Let’s back Boston as it continues this homestead against the traveling Rays.PLAY BOSTON |
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04-16-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
972 Toronto at BostonThe Red Sox were good to us yesterday and we come right back on them on Saturday. Starting pitching is a huge part of making baseball lines and this number has us stumped. The Red Sox are using a number 1 starter against the number 3 for the Blue Jays. Boston is playing at home with the far superior relief pitching. The Price/Estrada pitching duel is heavily favored for the host. We understand the lefty/righty situation for Toronto. There is simply too much value not to play on David Price in this range at home. PLAY BOSTON |
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04-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -113 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
918 Toronto at BostonNice starting pitcher edge for the Red Sox here as we have Dickey rated very poorly. He simply walks too many batters, and allowing extra baserunners in this building against this lineup is a disaster waiting to happen. In addition to a large edge at starter the Boston bullpen is one of the best in the majors this year. Nice cheap price on the home team tonight.PLAY BOSTON |
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04-14-16 | Giants v. Rockies +102 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 102 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
956 San Francisco at Colorado Rare chance to get a teams opening day starter in this price range against a number five starter from the opposition. Matt Cain has really struggled as of late and is lucky to still be in the league. Injuries and lack of production have really hurt this one time quality starter. In the rankings we use he is one of the five worst starting pitchers in baseball, and he has to pitch today in Coors Field. San Francisco isn’t as effective against lefties and De La Rosa is one of a few starters in baseball to figure out how to pitch in this park. Great value on the host. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-12-16 | Royals v. Astros -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
968 Kansas City at Houston Huge pitching advantage here for the Astros as Fiers is a proven commodity while Medlen is a question mark for the Royals. He was a quality starter before his well publicized arm problems but right now until we see a few regular season starts he’s a go against for us. Houston is terrific at home and dominated the game yesterday. The price is cheap in this one as we expect a repeat. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-11-16 | Brewers +162 v. Cardinals | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
903 Milwaukee at St Louis The dog is worth a shot here as the pitching matchup isn’t as one sided as many think. Jungman has better control, as Wacha walks more batters. Milwaukee has enough power to bring those added baserunners home. The Brewers are playing inspired ball right now while the Cards enter the season a bit overrated. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-08-16 | Astros v. Brewers +116 | 4-6 | Win | 116 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
978 Houston at Milwaukee Astros lose the DH by playing in a National League park which makes the offenses virtually even. The pitching edge goes to Chase Anderson who knows how to pitch in hitters ballparks after coming over from Arizona. Nice underdog price here against a popular favorite. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-07-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks +141 | 14-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
908 Chicago at Arizona The Cubs are already going to be overvalued to open the season. First because they are an extremely popular team, and because Chicago is one of the top teams in the league. But now off a sweep of the Angels the public is even more on the Cubs bandwagon. But we are really down on the Angels this year, so to have success at Anaheim isn't a surprise. Now the team travels to Arizona to take on a Diamondbacks team that has some talent themselves. Rubby De La Rosa is the slightly better pitcher here. Don't be fooled by the numbers from last year as Lackey came out of nowhere to pitch great. He's still a quality arm but Rubby is an underated starter. We have the Arizona starter slightly better, and that's not showing in this line. While the Cubs should be favored here, the line is way too high. Nice spot for the home dog here against a peaking foe. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-05-16 | Astros v. Yankees +119 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
922 Houston at NY Yankees Dallas Kuechel is making his first start of the season obviously, but he is doing so after winning the 2015 CY Young Award. We look to go against teams and players after winning postseason honors. He was dynamite at home last year but, his numbers were not as impressive when taking to the highway. Houston is thought by many to be the favorite in its division, but keep in mind that this is still a very young team. The Yankees are an afterthought in a lot of peoples minds, which is why they are a home underdog on opening day. But when healthy Tanaka is as good as any pitcher in the league. This is a nice spot to take plus money on an underrated squad.PLAY NY YANKEES |
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04-04-16 | Twins v. Orioles -125 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
964 Minnesota at Baltimore It says something about these teams when Santana and Tillman are your opening day starters. Neither pitching staff has a true ace but we believe Chris Tillman will be a money maker this year. We won’t be backing the Orioles often because of such poor team pitching, but this is a matchup which is underpriced in the markets. The combination of Santana and his wildness along with Baltimore's power makes this a solid play for the host. The Orioles are a high scoring power team, and when facing a pitcher with a base on balls tendency, we will back them.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-03-16 | Mets -114 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
907 NY Mets at Kansas City Too many reasons not to like the Mets here. Obvious World Series revenge is a major point along with all the championship festivities for the host Royals. On the diamond New York sends Harvey to the mound which is a major edge over Volquez. Add in the fact that the Royals bullpen which has been dynamite over the years, may show some cracks. Closer Davis has lost 3 mph velocity on all his pitches in the spring which could be a precursor to an injury. The same thing showed a year ago with Holland and he missed a great deal of the season with Tommy John surgery. We really respect this Kansas City bunch but we do not expect them to even win the division this year.PLAY NY METS |
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10-30-15 | Royals v. Mets -142 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
906 Kansas City at New York Don’t write off the Mets just yet. This is still a team that outlasted the excellent National League playoff field to make it to the World Series. A team with a starting rotation others will drool over for the foreseeable future. A team that should be at a home run advantage now after playing in homer unfriendly Kauffman Stadium. Now that the the Mets have gotten a close look at how the Royals work offensively, we can see the Mets making a few changes to take advantage. While Syndergaard is known as a flame thrower, it’s harder to strikeout opponents not looking to swing for the fences. But he has enough talent to make the adjustments and we expect the Mets to grab this much needed third game of this series.PLAY NEW YORK |
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10-18-15 | Chicago Cubs v. New York Mets +154 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 154 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
958 Chicago at New York Silly line here with the Mets getting +155 in some places as a home dog. Syndergaard has been dynamite as of late and throws 100 mph. It won’t be fun for the Cubs batters with temperatures in the mid to lower 40’s tonight. Arrieta is having a magical season but he’s already thrown over 250 innings which is much higher than last season and almost three times as many innings as the year before. While he has been unhittable at times, his last couple starts show that he is tiring. With so much future money on the Cubs the books have to entice Mets bettors to try to even the books. We are major buyers.PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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10-06-15 | Houston Astros v. New York Yankees +102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
932 Houston at NY Yankees Losing the division title to the Rangers was a big blow to the Astros chances of advancing far into the playoffs. Not only do they have to play this one off contest against the Yankees, but they must do so on the road. Believe it or not the Astros 33-48 road record was the absolute worst in the entire American League. So the team that faltered down the stretch because of experience now is put into its worst role in a do or die contest. No thank you. While Dallas Keuchel has been close to automatic pitching at home, its been a different story on the road. A 1.46 ERA at home as opposed to a 3.77 ERA and a 5-8 record away from Houston. To top it off he has never pitched in the postseason and he will be coming back on only three days rest. The Yankees have a lot of veterans on this team with a nice mix of youngsters. New York is a well balanced team with a winning record at home as well as the road. Tanaka had a winning record pitching both at home and on the road. He was a mainstay in the Japanese League and has pitching in this type of environment before. While Tanaka has battled injuries he returns for this game on his regular pitching schedule. PLAY NY YANKEES |
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09-28-15 | Cincinnati Reds +178 v. Washington Nationals | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
969 Cincinnati at Washington |
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09-25-15 | Texas Rangers +130 v. Houston Astros | 6-2 | Win | 130 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
925 Texas at Houston Simple handicap here as the Astros are in a must win situation and we want nothing to do with a team with that type of pressure. Houston had a huge lead in the division and is falling apart down the stretch. Young teams that have never felt this kind of pressure tend to fade quickly and that’s what’s happening right now with the Stros.Texas is playing free and easy right now just like Houston did in the first half of the season. The Rangers are a confident bunch after taking it to the Astros earlier in Arlington. We will back the hot confident team here in the underdog role.PLAY TEXAS |
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09-18-15 | Oakland A's +188 v. Houston Astros | 4-3 | Win | 188 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
977 Oakland at Houston Very simple handicap in this one. The A’s have nothing to play for and are a loose team. Not the same with the young Astros who are choking away a huge lead in the division. After being humiliated by in-state rival Texas we can’t see laying this type of number to anyone. Just because a team needs to win doesn’t mean it will, and these players have never felt this type of pressure. Houston has been excellent at home this year but that was when the team was playing with confidence. It’s not often you find a team on a 2-8 run with a non-elite pitcher laying this type of number.PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-15-15 | Detroit Tigers +155 v. Minnesota Twins | 5-4 | Win | 155 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
923 Detroit at Minnesota Despite the Tigers struggles, this line is simply too high based on the Twins need to win and catching Hughes in his first start off the DL. After an excellent start to the season Minnesota has returned to where we had expected them to perform before the season. The banked wins early in the year are enough to cash a season win over ticket for Minnesota backers, but they are being priced way too high here. Hughes has a 4.49 ERA on the season despite pitching half his games in a favorable park. He’s had major problems against Cabrera who has to be licking his chops at seeing Hughes. Detroit is ranked 5th in the league against righties while the Twins sit 26th. Simon has been quite inconsistent all year but even with a poor outing we feel the Tigers will score enough here to make this a game. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota Twins +120 v. Chicago White Sox | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
971 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox Because of time constraints the analysis will be extremely short. We prefer the Twins here with Milone who we feel matches up very well against this Chicago offense. The Twins hit lefties very well which is just the opposite of the White Sox. Nice value on the road dog here.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-09-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers +135 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
929 LA Dodgers at LA Angels Many times cappers base their entire handicap on the starting pitchers, which is why most people prefer to play favorites. But there is more to handicapping baseball than matching up starters. That’s exactly why we feel this underdog has terrific value. Matt Latos is having a terrible year by his own standards. In fact, he hasn’t put it together at any time this year regardless of the uniform he has worn. But his career stats override some of his 2015 numbers as he’s battled injuries all season. Which is why the Dodgers are such an underdog in this contest. But let’s look past Latos and see how these two teams have performed. The Dodgers have won eight straight meetings with the Angels and have won 14 of 16 overall. The Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball hitting right-handed starters and have a sizable edge over the Angels offense the past month.The Angels have fallen virtually out of playoff contention after a big run last month. This team is now playing .500 ball on the season and have not hit well for an extended period of time. Richards has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 18 innings and it’s clear he has hit a wall after coming back from his major knee injury a year ago. This line is way too high for an Angels team that continues to find ways to lose.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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09-08-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -117 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
965 Tampa Bay at Detroit |
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09-02-15 | Washington Nationals v. St. Louis Cardinals -115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
960 Washington at St Louis Sometimes the betting public gets beat over the head with preconceived ideas and refuses to make adjustments. We’ve all done it and in retrospect we feel terrible. But continuing to do the same thing over and over is insane. Which brings us to the subject of the Washington Nationals. The Nats were one of my losing futures plays as I took them over 93 1/2 and 94 wins. How could you not when the team was to be healthy this year and the addition of Matt Scherzer. We’ll we now see that the lack of depth was overlooked and those we thought would be stars have regressed. Only Brice Harper offensively has dominated. So now that we know the Nats just aren’t that good, why is this line competitive. Michael Wacha is on the hill for the Cards who have featured depth all season long. The Cards have dealt much better with injuries this year and yet this team is 40 games above .500. St Louis has been lights out at home and here we have them as a small favorite over a team in a must win situation. We all have seen this story before. Lay it with the host.PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-01-15 | Detroit Tigers +154 v. Kansas City Royals | 6-5 | Win | 154 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
923 Detroit at Kansas City Short and sweet. We are going to ride the hot starter here as Verlander has posted an amazing 1.38 ERA in his last 7 starts. Coming off losing a no-hitter in the ninth inning we know he has been nipping at the bit to get back on the hill. We are well aware of the Tigers poor play as of late but Verlander is a clubhouse leader and we expect his team to be up for this game. Cueto hasn’t been overly impressive coming over to the American League which is very common for a senior circuit starter. While he has the name we have the starter pitching much better, and in a nice paying dog roll at that.PLAY DETROIT |
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08-29-15 | Houston Astros v. Minnesota Twins +126 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
968 Houston at Minnesota Taking a chance on the home dog here still fighting hard for the postseason. We always can find value on a pitcher such as Mike Pelfrey who isn’t a strikeout artist and never gets backing. But he continues to keep his team in games and that’s really all you are looking for in an underdog selection. This is the first game for Mike Fiers since his no-hitter his last time out. But keep in mind that was against the Dodgers, a National League team he knew well. We like to fade pitchers coming over to the AL from the NL and this is a terrific opportunity to do so. Two of our favorite situations occur tonight and we fully expect to cash this dog.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-26-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers -131 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
920 LA Angels at Detroit We came up a run short with the Tigers yesterday but tonight we get out money back. Detroit ranks 2nd in baseball against left handed starters and the Tigers are in good form offensively. The Angels broke out last night but that has been a rare occurrence in the month of August. Verlander has been bad for so long that it’s hard to back him at this juncture but that’s exactly what we are doing here. Take a look at his game logs for August again the pretty good hitting teams of Texas, Boston, Houston and Kansas City. How about a .214 opponent batting average a WHIP of 1.00 with an ERA of 2.00. His SO to BB ratio is 27-6. His last two starts in July were equally as good.So we are paying a discounted price to back Verlander who is in terrific form against a lefty the Tigers should pound. We don’t play many favorites but this one deserves our attention.PLAY DETROIT |
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08-25-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers +106 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
968 LA Angels at Detroit Short and simple here. We simply don’t trust the Angels in the road favorite role against a quality opponent. Weaver is pitching on fumes at the end of his career and his stuff isn’t strong enough to fool anyone. He’s never been a high strikeout pitcher but he was able to get by throwing in a good pitchers park and division. While Detroit also slightly favors the man on the mound we have serious questions about his declining rates. The Angels have played 22 games in the month of August and only twice did they score more than 5 runs in a game. This offense is struggling and it’s playoff hopes are dwindling.As opposed to the Angels the Tigers have surpassed 5 run six times this months including 10 and 15 run outputs. Simon is coming off his best start of the season and we consider the pitching matchup a wash. Home team with better offense as an underdog is a take.PLAY DETROIT |
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08-22-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Diego Padres +120 | 0-8 | Win | 120 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
914 St Louis at San Diego We’ve been in action a lot this season either backing or going against Ian Kennedy. He started the year terribly but his advanced numbers suggested a major rebound. He’s done just that as of late with his last 14 starts showing a 2.82 ERA. But as is often the case the betting markets are slow to react after the disastrous start to the season. The same can be said about this Cardinals offense which has really regressed because of the major injuries this team has sustained. With the Padres hitting the ball better than St Louis over the last month, and the nice price on Kennedy, we will back the host.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-20-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cincinnati Reds +110 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
904 Arizona at Cincinnati One of our favorite handicapping angles is playing on an unknown lefty his first time through the league. John Lamb was once a top 20 prospect in the Royals organization who made his major league debut last week with the Reds. His counterpart is Patrick Corbin who returns to the hill this season after losing a year to injury in 2014.Cincinnati hit lefties far better than right handed starters and while Corbin’s numbers are a bit better this year than in his career, we are not expecting any big jumps in talent at this stage of his resume. Lamb has been an afterthought the past few seasons but now his time has come. We have what we perceive to be an underrated home dog here that should find offensive success against Corbin.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-19-15 | Kansas City Royals -102 v. Cincinnati Reds | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
977 Kansas City at Cincinnati Rare opportunity to take one of the top three teams in baseball as an underdog in an interleague match. The AL has dominated the NL in these contests and this year has been no different. Here we find the Royals with our favorite priced pitcher Guthrie in the role of underdog against an unheralded young pitcher for the Reds. Cincinnati has some decent arms in the minors but Sampson wasn’t projected to be one of them. We will take the Royals here to sweep the short series.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-18-15 | Cleveland Indians +108 v. Boston Red Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
913 Cleveland at Boston Rodriguez was the shot in the arm the Red Sox pitching staff needed when he was promoted earlier in the season. Like many young lefties he had an advantage the first few weeks in the league until the opposition received complete scouting reports. It’s an angle we have used for years as the young lefty was often underrated. But now after he’s been around the block the opposition has been teeing off on the southpaw. There is a learning curve in each level and as of right now Rodriguez hasn’t made the needed adjustments.The same used to be said about Trevor Bauer but he’s far more consistent than he used to be in his early career. Known as a hard player to coach he’s becoming more accepting of changes and he has turned himself into a useful starter. Boston hits righties much worse than southpaws while the Indians have no lefty-righty disadvantages. Nice price here with the Tribe as a dog.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-16-15 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -102 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
914 San Diego at Colorado Taking a shot with the home team here to light up Ian Kennedy who has been very susceptible to the long ball this season. Chris Rusin isn’t a household name so we do get a bit of value with the southpaw. And speaking of lefty starters the Padres rank 26th in MLB against southpaws. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-14-15 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants +140 | 5-8 | Win | 140 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
914 Washington at San Francisco Matt Scherzer holds a large advantage over Matt Cain in this contest, but does that warrant the Nationals to be such a sizable favorite? Cain has had some bad luck with a .333 BABIP and a 12.8 HR to FB ratio. But even with adjustments we still concede the starting pitching advantage to Washington. But in every other category the Giants have the edge. Home field advantage, hitting over the last month, San Francisco is the top team in baseball hitting against right-handers. San Francisco has the better bullpen and is better defensively. So while we concede the starting pitcher edge every other part of the game points to the home underdog Giants.PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-13-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals +108 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
968 LA Angels at Kansas City Short and sweet analysis on this one. We simply don’t trust Garrett Richards as a road favorite against one of the top two teams in the league. Richards is 4-6 with a 4.84 ERA outside of the Big A as his return from surgery hasn’t brought back the dominant starter many expected. We always seem to find value on Jeremy Guthrie as he rarely gets backing despite his ability to keep his team in the game. Nice home dog spot for the superior club.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-08-15 | Minnesota Twins +121 v. Cleveland Indians | 4-17 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
925 Minnesota at Cleveland This handicap is quite simple. We don’t trust the Indians in the role of favorite. The team has underperformed all season, especially at home. The starting pitching could be the best in baseball but the rest of the team is lacking. The defense is bad and the hitting has been poor. The best offensive player this season has been Kipnis and he is currently on the DL. The management has been making trades trying to dump salary which is good, but that only helps the team in the future. The players now know the brass has given up on this season, and with high expectations entering the year we can see the team going through the motions the rest of the year. According to some players that’s exactly the way they have played thus far.Minnesota is fading just like we all thought after a terrific first half of the season. But this franchise knew it wasn’t a serious contender and didn’t mortgage the future by trying to chase the dream this year at the trade deadline. Minnesota is still playing competitive ball and continues to outperform expectations.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-07-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +130 v. San Diego Padres | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
963 Philadelphia at San Diego Who’s the team with the best record since the All-Star Break? Who’s the most profitable team as well? Sometimes the betting markets are very slow to react and that’s the case with the Philadelphia Phillies. Is this team going to the postseason? Obviously not but this club continues to play hard. The same cannot be said of the Padres who made major changes coming into the year and had much higher expectations than Philadelphia.We like Aaron Nola who could finally be the franchise starter this team has so sorely missed. He’s a ground ball pitcher with the ability to get strikeouts. He’s an exciting young player this team can build around. James Shields on the other hand is showing signs of fatigue. He’s carried the weight of his teams for quite a while now and the innings have piled up. We will back the team still showing signs of life to continue to be a post All-Star money maker.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-05-15 | San Diego Padres +117 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
963 San Diego at Milwaukee The trade deadline saw the Pads surprisingly staying pat while the Brewers dealt two of its biggest bats in Parra and Gomez. That should severely weaken the Brewers offensively the rest of the season. These two starters are much closer in results than the respective ERAs suggest. Kennedy has a better SIERA and his xFIP is almost exactly the same as Jungmann. The main reason for the differential is fly balls turning into home runs. Kennedy sits at a whopping 20.2% which ranks 197th in baseball while Jungmann sits at a minuscule 3.8% which is 3rd in the majors. That disparity is one of the largest you will find in all of baseball over the entire course of the season. If that single number was normalized you would likely see the favorite shift in the betting markets.Without two key outfield pieces for the Brewers we will look for some regression here and back Ian Kennedy to have a strong outing tonight.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-03-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +130 v. Washington Nationals | 6-4 | Win | 130 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
953 Arizona at Washington After expecting a big performance out of the Nationals last night and losing 5-2 we have to seriously question what’s going on in our nation’s capital. Earlier in the series Washington’s best player Bryce Harper got himself thrown out of a tie game for arguing strikes. That’s something that just can’t be done if you are a team expected to play in the postseason. Throw in the fact that you were just swept by your closest divisional competitor, and we can see this team can’t be trusted in the favorite role. Now Washington travels home to face a young starter in Godley they know little about.Arizona on the other hand was expected to underperform this year but the D’Backs continue to play competitive ball. With Doug Fister regressing this year and his inability to strike out batters we have a live dog tonight.PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-02-15 | Washington Nationals +113 v. New York Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
905 Washington at NY Mets This is a crucial game for both teams but especially the Nats who dropped the first two games in this series by single runs in dramatic fashion. Washington is the better team with a .38 runs per game differential but the Nationals have been injury ridden all season. Now with Werth back and Span among others on the way, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel for Washington. It’s a testament that this team remains in first place through all this adversary.The pitching matchup seems to be a tossup but we will side with the veteran Zimmerman in such an important game. Syndergaard is an exciting strikeout artist that fans and bettors get excited about but because of that we can find value with the pail and lunchbox Zimmerman. Against right-handed starters the Nationals rank 15th with the Mets sitting at 23rd. Even when looking at the Nationals offensive funk as of late it compares evenly with New York. With this game be featured as the Sunday Night Baseball contest we will back the playoff tested Nationals over the Mets who haven’t played many games of this magnitude over the years. Look for Bryce Harper to go off as he has a habit doing on the National stage.PLAY WASHINGTON |
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08-01-15 | Colorado Rockies +174 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 6-2 | Win | 174 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
961 Colorado at St Louis Big dog with tons of value in our opinion. de la Rosa has been hurt by the long ball this season allowing a whopping 16.9% of fly balls reach the seats. He has also struggled with his control on the year walking 11.6% of batters faced. While he traditionally has pitched very well in Coors Field those two numbers are disastrous when facing opponents in that building. This year we trust his road work which continues to be discounted based on prior years. The 2015 de la Rosa isn’t your older brothers lefty. St Louis simply doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right handed starters, ranking just 21st in the league vs southpaws. Colorado on the other hand is 8th in baseball against righties. Over the last month the Rockies have been far superior offensively and this line mistakingly shows a major mismatch. We expect a tight game which is just what you want from a dog of this size.PLAY COLORADO |
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07-30-15 | Los Angeles Angels +141 v. Houston Astros | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
971 LA Angels at Houston |
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07-30-15 | New York Yankees -137 v. Texas Rangers | 6-7 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
969 NY Yankees at Texas |