Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-23 | Panthers -123 v. Flames | 1-3 | Loss | -123 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Flames off their 4-2 win over the Lightning on Saturday. That victory snapped a four-game losing streak but only improved Calgary to an even 7-7 on home ice this season. Florida checks in 9-8 on the road where it has performed exceptionally well defensively, limiting opponents to just 2.5 goals per game. The Panthers halted their two-game slide with a convincing 5-1 win in Edmonton on Saturday. Note that Calgary is just 9-15 in its last 24 games following a home win and worse still, 4-11 in its last 15 contests after a home victory in which it produced at least four goals. Florida is 6-1 after losing two of its last three games this season. Take Florida (8*). |
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12-18-23 | Panthers v. Flames UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Monday. While the Panthers are known for their offense, it's been their defense that has really shone on the road this season. Florida enters Monday's contest in Calgary having allowed just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. While the Cats did produce five goals in Saturday's win in Edmonton, the 'under' has cashed on five of eight occasions when they've come off a 5+ goal performance this season. The Flames snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Lightning on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 57-36 in Calgary's last 93 home games after losing six or seven of its last eight contests, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-16-23 | Avalanche v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jets slipped four goals past the Avalanche when these teams met on December 7th in Colorado, winning that contest by a pair. I look for a lower-scoring affair this time around as Colorado heads to Winnipeg on Saturday. The Jets have allowed two goals or less in six straight games. They're giving up only 2.8 goals per game at home this season. Colorado had allowed a whopping 10 goals in its last two games before holding the Sabres to one goal last time out. Note that the 'under' is 21-7 in the Avs last 28 road games seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 39-17 in Winnipeg's last 56 home games following a victory. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-23 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Bruins are coming off an overtime loss in New Jersey two nights ago but they still held the opposition to three goals or less for a sixth straight game. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 in their last 16 road games following a loss by a single goal. The Islanders have seen two straight and seven of their last eight games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think that's a sustainable trend. Note that the 'under' is 21-10 in New York's last 31 games after its previous two contests both totalled seven or more goals, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 28-22 in the Isles last 50 games when seeking revenge for a road defeat against an opponent, which is the situation here as well. While the last two meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results between these two teams since 2010-11. Take the under (10*). |
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12-14-23 | Lightning v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Oilers are coming off consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they host the Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay should be in a foul mood after scoring just one goal in a lopsided defeat in Vancouver on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' is 21-11 in the Bolts last 32 games following consecutive road contests, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 13-2 in the Oilers last 15 home games after winning consecutive games by two goals or more, which is also the situation here. The 'over' is 22-11 in the Oilers last 33 contests after holding consecutive opponents to two goals or less as well. The last two meetings in this series have produced eight and 10 total goals. Take the over (8*). |
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12-13-23 | Sabres v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. While the Avalanche did snap their two-game losing streak with a wild 6-5 win over the Flames on Monday, head coach Jared Bednar couldn't have been happy with his team's defensive play. I look for Colorado to tighten things up in that department as it hosts Buffalo on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' is 14-2 in the Avs last 16 home games after giving up three goals or more in three straight contests, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 7-1 with Colorado seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, which is also the situation here after the Sabres defeated the Avs 4-0 on October 29th. Buffalo is coming off a 5-2 win over Arizona on Monday and that's notable as the 'under' is 8-2 with the Sabres following a game that totalled seven goals or more. Take the under (8*). |
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12-12-23 | Flyers v. Predators -133 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Nashville over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Predators got off to a disappointing start this season by all accounts but have since worked themselves back into the Western Conference playoff picture. In fact, Nashville is red hot having won 10 of its last 13 games overall. The Flyers are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip following wins in Arizona and Colorado. Note that they're a long-term 126-153 following a road victory by two goals or more, as is the case here, and 30-41 in their last 71 contests following consecutive wins by three goals or more. The road team did take both meetings in this series last season but that hasn't been a regular occurrence. Prior to last season, the home side had won four straight matchups in the series. Take Nashville (10*). |
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12-11-23 | Flames v. Avalanche -165 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Avalanche have inexplicably lost consecutive games on home ice and five of their last six contests overall. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they host a disappointing Flames squad that has lost three of its last four games. Despite its recent struggles, Colorado is still 9-4 on home ice this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals. In stark contrast, Calgary checks in 5-9 on the road. You would have to go back four meetings here in Denver to find the last time the Flames posted a victory. I certainly don't think the Avs want to leave it to the last game of this five-game homestand (on Wednesday against Buffalo) to try to turn things around. Take Colorado (8*). |
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12-11-23 | Flames v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Monday. I think we'll see the Avalanche clamp down defensively on Monday after an ugly 5-2 defeat at home against the Flyers on Saturday - the team's second straight loss. Calgary needs to sort things out as well following a 4-2 home loss against the Devils on Saturday - its third defeat in its last four contests. This hasn't exactly been a high-scoring series with the last three meetings producing 5, 5 and 4 total goals including a 3-1 Avs home victory earlier this season. Note that the 'under' is 17-4 in Colorado's last 21 home games following a home loss with that spot producing an average total of only 5.6 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Flyers v. Avalanche -200 | 5-2 | Loss | -200 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Cale Makar returned from injury for the Avalanche on Thursday against Winnipeg but it wasn't enough as Colorado lost 4-2 - its fourth defeat in its last five contests. I look for the Avs to bounce back on Saturday as they host a Flyers team coming off three straight victories. Note that Colorado has won four straight meetings in this series here in Denver. Philadelphia is a woeful 8-26 in its last 34 games after giving up one goal or less in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Colorado (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Devils -117 v. Flames | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Hurricanes let the Flames off the hook on Thursday, blowing a 2-0 lead en route to a 3-2 defeat. I don't expect the Devils to suffer the same fate as Calgary's homestand continues on Saturday. New Jersey enters this game playing its best hockey of the season having won five of its last six games overall and two straight to open this road trip. The Devils have picked up right where they left off last season, thriving on the road with an 8-4 record. The Flames are just 6-6 on home ice and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal. Note that Calgary is just 18-29 in its last 47 games following a victory. Take New Jersey (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Penguins v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is 9-1 in the Penguins last 10 games including a perfect 2-0 on their current road trip. While a date with the Panthers could generally be considered a potential breakout spot for an opposing offense, I'm not sure there's a quick fix for the Pens right now. Note that Florida is actually giving up just 2.6 goals per game this season. The Panthers have scored 13 goals over their last three games but that scoring tear actually helps our cause here, noting the 'under' is a long-term 81-56 with Florida having scored three goals or more in three consecutive games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Penguins coming off a road loss this season and a long-term 23-6 when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more, which is also the situation here. Since the start of 2019, nine of 12 meetings in this series have totalled six goals or less. While these two teams are known for their offense, they actually qualify as having two of the worst power plays in the entire league. The Pens are 7-for-71 with the man advantage this season while the Panthers check in 15-for-81. Take the under (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Penguins +146 v. Panthers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Florida at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I think we'll see the Penguins best effort here after they dropped the opening two games of this three-game road trip. Following tonight's game Pittsburgh will have three full days off before taking the ice again at home against the Coyotes. It certainly doesn't want to be stewing on an 0-3 road trip and four-game losing streak. Note that despite the Pens 6-7 road record, they've actually outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals away from home. They catch the Panthers in a favorable spot here, noting that Florida checks in off a wild 5-4 victory over Dallas two nights ago and is just 26-32 in its last 58 games after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. Pittsburgh is 4-3 in the last seven meetings in this series including an even 2-2 mark in its last four trips to Sunrise. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-07-23 | Hurricanes -120 v. Flames | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes might as well have not even shown up to the rink in Edmonton last night as they were down 2-0 in the game's first minute and 4-0 less than 15 minutes in en route to a 6-1 defeat. The good news is, they have an immediate shot at redemption as they return to the ice after making the short trip to Calgary on Thursday. This is a talented, experienced and perhaps most important in this situation, well-coached team and one that I expect to see bounce back in this spot. The Flames had a solid November following an absolutely brutal October but they've gone back to their losing ways here in December, dropping consecutive games on home ice against the Canucks and Wild. This doesn't appear to be an ideal 'get right' matchup, noting the Canes have taken five of the last six meetings in this series. Take Carolina (10*). |
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12-07-23 | Stars -130 v. Capitals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Stars didn't fare well in their two-game set in Florida, dropping games in Tampa and Sunrise. Despite a tough back-to-back spot against a rested Capitals squad on Thursday, I look for the Stars to salvage a win in the finale of their three-game road trip. Note that Dallas is still 8-5 on the road this season and has reeled off four straight victories in the Nation's Capital going back to 2018. Washington checks in off back-to-back losses, outscored by a whopping margin of 10-1 in those two contests. Note that the Stars are 21-10 in their last 31 road games after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Washington is 2-8 in its last 10 home games following a road loss by two goals or more. Take Dallas (8*). |
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12-06-23 | Hurricanes v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Edmonton at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Hurricanes will likely be in a foul mood as they head to Edmonton following Monday's lifeless 2-1 defeat in Winnipeg. Make no mistake, the Canes can score as they average 3.4 goals per game on the season. In a game where both teams have question marks between the pipes (neither has a goaltender on the roster with a save percentage .900 or higher this season), I'm anticipating plenty of offense. The Oilers have been scoring at will, finding the back of the net 21 times during their current four-game winning streak. Like the Canes, they're also averaging 3.4 goals per game this season. Keep in mind, this has been a high-scoring series with three meetings going back to the start of last season producing 10, 9 and 9 total goals. Take the over (8*). |
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12-06-23 | Penguins +114 v. Lightning | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. While I understand this is a revenge spot for the Lightning after the Penguins prevailed 4-2 in Tampa last week, I still think Pittsburgh is in better position to respond here following consecutive losses against the Flyers. Note that the Pens have owned this series in South Florida lately, taking each of the last four meetings at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay snapped a four-game losing streak with a dominant 4-0 win over Dallas two nights ago. The Bolts are just 16-22 in their last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored four goals or more. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-05-23 | Rangers -130 v. Senators | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The road team has owned this series in recent years and that includes the Rangers taking each of the last three matchups in Ottawa. I like New York's chances again on Tuesday as it checks in playing some of its best hockey of the season having won six of its last seven contests overall. The Senators snapped their three-game losing streak with a 2-0 shutout win over the Kraken on Saturday but remain just 5-7 on home ice this season. Ottawa has scored a grand total of four goals over its last three games. In stark contrast, the Rangers scored six in their most recent game on Sunday. Take New York (10*). |
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12-04-23 | Penguins -123 v. Flyers | 1-2 | Loss | -123 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Penguins outshot the Flyers 6-1 in overtime on Saturday night but couldn't find the back of the net and ultimately fell in a shootout. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they get a quick rematch in Philadelphia. Note that the Flyers are just 5-7 on home ice this season, averaging just 2.8 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Penguins check in 6-5 on the road where they've put up an impressive 3.6 goals per contest. Pittsburgh has come away victorious in three of its last four trips to Philadelphia. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I expect the Blue Jackets to have a miserable time trying to break through offensively against the Bruins on Sunday, noting that Boston has allowed just 2.1 goals per game on home ice this season and despite the victory in Toronto last night, should be in a foul mood after blowing a 3-2 lead with seconds remaining in the third period. Columbus is coming off a 4-2 win over the Senators on Friday but continues to struggle on the season, averaging just 2.9 goals per contest. Meanwhile, Boston's offensive ceiling hasn't been all that high lately as it has produced four goals or less in seven consecutive games. Take the under (8*). |
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12-02-23 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -216 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Washington at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. Every once in a while we'll step up with a play on a big favorite on the ice and this is one such spot. Vegas checks in off a 4-1 win in Vancouver. Meanwhile, Washington has won back-to-back games in Los Angeles and Anaheim. I like the revenge spot for the Caps here after they dropped a 3-0 decision in Washington in mid-November. Note that Washington is just 4-14 after scoring five goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The Knights are 34-13 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Take Vegas (8*). |
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12-02-23 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs +101 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendars since dropping a 3-2 decision in Boston on November 2nd - their fourth straight loss against the Bruins. Toronto checks into this rematch having won back-to-back games while Boston snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-0 shutout win over the lowly Sharks on Thursday. The Leafs should be able to 'empty the tank' in this contest as they won't play again until December 7th in Ottawa. Meanwhile, Boston has a quick turnaround with a home game against Columbus on deck on Sunday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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11-30-23 | Oilers v. Jets +106 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Edmonton at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jets have lost two games in a row including a shutout defeat at the hands of the Stars to open this homestand on Tuesday. I look for them to bounce back on Thursday as they host the Oilers. Note that Winnipeg is 10-2 in its last 12 games after losing by two goals or more against a division opponent in their previous game, as is the case here. The Jets have outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. While the Oilers have turned things around with three straight victories, they're still just 4-8 on the road this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals. The Jets have taken three of four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Canadiens v. Blue Jackets -126 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Columbus over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Canadiens have taken three straight meetings in this series - their longest such streak against the Blue Jackets since way back in 2015. I look for that run to come to an abrupt halt on Wednesday, however, as Montreal wraps up its long road trip in Columbus. Note that the Habs haven't taken the ice since Saturday when they suffered a 4-0 defeat in Los Angeles. This has been an interesting road trip as Montreal started in Boston on November 18th before travelling to California for a three-game in four-night set that saw it take four of a possible six points. Having been idle since Saturday, I believe the Habs are in danger of coming out flat against an opponent that doesn't draw a great deal of motivation on Wednesday. Montreal would be wrong to overlook the lowly Blue Jackets here as Columbus has been playing well. The Jackets check in winners of three of their last four games including a convincing 5-2 win over the first-place Bruins on Monday. Note that the Habs are a woeful 2-17 in their last 19 games following four or more consecutive road games. Take Columbus (10*). |
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11-28-23 | Stars -115 v. Jets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Jets had their five-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Predators in Nashville on Sunday. They return home in a tough spot on Tuesday as they host a Stars squad that will certainly be in a foul mood after dropping back-to-back contests at home against Vegas and Calgary. Note that Dallas has actually been a much better team on the road than at home this season, going 7-2 including a victory right here in Winnipeg earlier this month. It's worth noting that this is only the Stars second losing streak this season. The last time they dropped two games in a row they responded with a 5-2 victory in Columbus the next time they took the ice. Dallas is a long-term 76-39 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more, as is the case here, and 13-4 in its last 17 road games after giving up four or more goals in its previous game. Meanwhile, Winnipeg is just 2-7 when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last three seasons and 0-5 the last five times it has come off eight victories in its last 10 contests. Take Dallas (10*). |
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11-27-23 | Lightning v. Avalanche -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Lightning defeated the Hurricanes 8-2 in Carolina on Friday despite firing just 14 shots on goal. The Avalanche enter Monday's contest playing some of their best hockey of the season, winners of three games in a row and six of their last seven overall. You would have to go back four games to find the last time they allowed more than two goals. Note that the Lightning are just 13-17 after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons while the Avalanche check in 56-18 in the same situation over the last three seasons. Colorado has dropped two straight home matchups against Tampa Bay but still owns a long-term 13-9-1 record at home against the Bolts. Take Colorado (10*). |
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11-24-23 | Jets v. Panthers -128 | 3-0 | Loss | -128 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Jets took the opener of this Florida swing in overtime against the Lightning two nights ago. Sweeping through the Sunshine State doesn't happen all that often and I don't expect Winnipeg to accomplish that feat here. The Panthers were completely shut down by the Bruins on Wednesday but I like their chances of bouncing back here. Note that the Jets are a miserable 3-16 in their last 19 road games after winning four or more contests in a row, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Take Florida (8*). |
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11-22-23 | Flyers v. Islanders UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I expect goals to come at a premium as the Flyers look to extend their five-game winning streak on Long Island on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Philadelphia's last six road games after scoring four goals or more in each of its previous two contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-2 in the Islanders last 12 home games following consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. The Isles have been downright awful defensively this season but perhaps a win to snap a seven-game slide in their most recent contest will give them a lift here. The Flyers have actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, yielding just 2.7 goals per contest compared to their season average of 2.9 goals per game allowed. Take the under (8*). |
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11-20-23 | Kings v. Coyotes +131 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I don't think there's any question the Coyotes have had this game circled on their calendar since blowing a 4-1 lead in a 5-4 loss at home against the Kings on October 27th - their second straight defeat at the hands of Los Angeles at the time. I like Arizona to bounce back from Saturday's 5-2 loss in Winnipeg, noting it hasn't dropped consecutive games since, you guessed it, those two losses to the Kings on the 24th and 27th of October. Los Angeles checks in off back-to-back wins to salvage a 2-2 split on its four-game homestand. Note that the Kings are a long-term 47-72 when coming off a win by four goals or more, as is the case here, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are 10-4 in their last 14 home games following a road loss. Take Arizona (8*). |
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11-16-23 | Lightning -1.5 v. Blackhawks | 4-2 | Win | 135 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning have more than likely had this game circled on their calendar since dropping an ugly 5-3 decision at home against the Blackhawks last week. Note that Tampa Bay was in a three-in-four situation playing in a third different city over that stretch while Chicago had been idle for the previous three days heading in. Since that loss, the Bolts have gone on to be shut out by both Carolina and St. Louis in lopsided defeats. Stretches like that have been few and far between for Tampa Bay under the guidance of head coach Jon Cooper. I look for the Lightning to bounce back on Thursday and we'll lay the extra goal, noting that five of their six victories this season have come by at least two goals. Each of Chicago's three home defeats have also come by at least two goals. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Bruins -150 v. Sabres | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's not often we get a chance to back the Bruins coming off a loss and when they're in that position, they tend to prevail. Boston is a perfect 2-0 following a loss this season and should continue its dominance over division rival Buffalo on Tuesday, noting that the Bruins have taken seven of the last eight meetings going back to the start of the 2021-22 campaign. Buffalo was shut out in Pittsburgh on Saturday and while it entered the campaign with playoff aspirations, it has disappointed so far, winning just seven times in 15 games. The B's are slowly getting back to full strength on the blue line and I'm confident we'll see them impose their will in Buffalo on Tuesday. Take Boston (8*). |
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11-13-23 | Avalanche -143 v. Seattle Kraken | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Wrong place at the wrong time for the Kraken as they look to make it two in a row over the Avalanche. Colorado was blasted 8-3 by the Blues in one of the more stunning results of the young season on Saturday night at home. I'm confident we'll see the Avs bounce back here as they look to avenge last week's home loss against Seattle. This is one of those unique one-game road trips where the elite teams tend to take care of business. Meanwhile, Seattle is licking its wounds following a 4-1 home loss to the reeling Oilers on Saturday and checks in just 2-4 at Climate Pledge Arena this season, oustscored by 1.2 goals on average along the way. Take Colorado (8*). |
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11-11-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off disappointing performances with the Lightning losing at home against the Blackhawks two nights ago and the Hurricanes fresh off a 5-2 defeat against the Panthers last night. I would anticipate both teams tightening things up defensively on Saturday and it's worth noting that we've seen a shutout pitched in each of the last three meetings in this series including a 3-0 Lightning victory on this ice back in October. Carolina got off to a miserable start defensively this season but prior to last night's contest it had held six straight opponents to three goals or fewer and four of those foes to less than three markers. The Bolts allowed five goals against Chicago on Thursday but have still given up just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (8*). |
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11-09-23 | Wild v. Rangers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 104 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last Saturday in Minnesota as the Wild rallied for a 5-4 shootout victory. Minnesota has no hope of being a true contender this season if it can't button things up defensively. The Wild have allowed 4.1 goals per game but I do think they're a better defensive team than they've shown. Meanwhile, the Rangers check in allowing just 2.2 goals per contest on home ice this season. I would anticipate some offensive regression over the next couple of games after they scored nine goals in their last two contests. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with New York coming off a home victory in which it scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.5 goals in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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11-08-23 | Kings v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. This sets up as an ideal bounce-back spot for the Golden Knights as they return home off a rare loss in Anaheim on Sunday. Vegas scored just twice in that contest but should rebound nicely at home, where it averages 4.0 goals per game this season. The Kings are coming off a shutout victory in Philadelphia - their first clean sheet of the season. While I don't expect Los Angeles to keep Vegas off the scoreboard here, I do think the Kings can hang with the Golden Knights offensively, noting that they're averaging a whopping 4.8 goals per game on the road this season. We've seen 12 straight meetings in this series total at least six goals but the Kings three-game 'under' streak heading into this clash is looming large and holding this posted total at exactly six goals at the time of writing. Despite Los Angeles' recent run of 'under' results, the 'over' is actually 24-14 when it comes off an 'under' over the last two seasons, with that situation resulting in an average total of 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-23 | Penguins v. Ducks UNDER 6.5 | 2-0 | Win | 107 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Penguins scored an incredible 10 goals last time out but that came against the lowly Sharks (who proceeded to give up 10 goals in their next game as well). I don't expect Pittsburgh to come close to repeating that performance on Tuesday, noting that its opponent, Anaheim, has held nine of its last 10 opponents to three goals or less. The Ducks have scored at least four goals in five straight games but have actually fired fewer than 30 shots on goal in each of their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Pens have held three consecutive opponents to 27 shots on goal or fewer. The 'over' has cashed in all three meetings between these two teams going back to last season, including a 4-3 Ducks victory in Pittsburgh back on October 30th. Take the under (8*). |
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11-06-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Leafs desperately need to stop the bleeding after suffering their fourth consecutive loss on Saturday night against Buffalo. I look for them to do just that as they host the division rival Lightning on Monday. Note that Toronto already took the first meeting between these two teams this season, in Tampa no less. It snapped a two-game losing streak on that occasion. Note that the Lightning are just 12-20 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed four goals or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Leafs are 12-1 in their last 13 games after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest, which is also the situation here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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11-02-23 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Bruins always get up for games against the Leafs, even if Toronto appears to be down right now, just 5-4 on the season and off consecutive losses. Boston has dropped just one game so far this season and checks in an incredible 20-4 in its last 24 games when coming off a one-goal victory, as is the case here. The Bruins have owned this series in Beantown over the years, going 45-27 in the last 72 meetings. It's not often we can back the B's at such a reasonable price at home. While they are missing Charlie McAvoy to a suspension right now, I'm confident they can overcome that and add to the Leafs misery on Thursday. Take Boston (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Stars v. Flames UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Calgary at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. You can make the argument that the Flames have been the league's biggest disappointment in the first month of the season. Their offense is downright awful as they've produced a grand total of six goals during their current five-game losing streak. That includes just one goal scored during a recent two-game homestand. I do expect Calgary to bounce back with a gritty performance here, however, following Sunday's ugly 5-2 defeat against the rival Oilers in the Heritage Classic. Note that only three of Calgary's nine opponents have scored more than three goals this season. Dallas checks in off a high-scoring game on Monday at home against the Blue Jackets. I don't think the Stars will be interested in a back-and-forth affair here in the first night of a back-to-back in Alberta. On the season, Dallas is allowing just 2.6 goals per game with that number dropping to 2.0 in three road contests. Take the under (8*). |
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10-30-23 | Rangers v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Winnipeg at 7:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring overtime affairs on Saturday with the Rangers prevailing in Vancouver and the Jets losing in Montreal. This is a low total by today's NHL standards but I don't believe it will prove low enough. Note that each of the last five matchups in this series has produced five goals or less. The Jets got off to a brutal start defensively this season allowing 19 goals in their first four games but they've since turned it around, yielding just just eight goals in regulation time over their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Rangers have given up just five goals in the first four games of their current road trip and have held an incredible five of eight opponents to a single goal or less this season. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Sharks +190 v. Capitals | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over Washington at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Sharks have yet to win a game this season. They win on Sunday as they head to Washington to face the suddenly-surging Capitals. Note that Washington checks in 12-18 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons. They're also 9-20 when playing at home after securing two wins in their last three games over the same stretch, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. The road team has gone a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. Take San Jose (8*). |
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10-27-23 | Wild +113 v. Capitals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Wild dropped an ugly 6-2 decision in Philadelphia last night but I look for them to bounce back as they make the short trip to Washington to face the Capitals on Friday. The Caps should be a welcome sight at the other end of the rink given the Wild have gone a perfect 4-0 against them over the last two seasons and have come away victorious in three straight trips to the Nation's Capital. Washington pulled off a stunning 6-4 victory over the Devils two nights ago, successfully rallying with three unanswered goals in the third period after blowing a 3-0 lead in the second. That puts the Caps in a poor situation here as they're just 2-9 in their last 11 games following a road win by two goals or more and 1-8 in their last nine contests after scoring six goals or more in their previous game. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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10-26-23 | Avalanche v. Penguins +123 | 0-4 | Win | 123 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Penguins let the Stars off the hook on Tuesday, outshooting them 18-9 in the first period but only managing to find the back of the net once before Dallas responded with four unanswered goals in the second and third periods. That marked Pittsburgh's third straight loss following a 2-1 start. I look for the Pens to bounce back on Thursday as they host the undefeated Avalanche. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh did take both matchups in this series last season, outscoring Colorado by a combined 7-3 score. While the Avs continue to pile up victories, they've proven vulnerable at the back-end lately, allowing eight goals over their last two games. Note that they're 0-7 after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 2.4 goals on average in that situation. Also note that Colorado has averaged just 3.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring five or more goals in its previous game (185-game sample size). I'm not convinced that will be enough on Thursday as I like the bounce-back spot for the Pens as they continue their four-game homestand. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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10-25-23 | Capitals +220 v. Devils | 6-4 | Win | 220 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're seeing a similar trend developing to what we saw last season from the Devils as they played exceptionally well on the road (28-13) but were only average at home (24-17). So far this season, New Jersey is 1-2 in Newark but a perfect 2-0 on the road after last night's 5-2 victory in Montreal. Nothing has gone right for the Capitals so far this season as they check in 1-4, fresh off another lopsided defeat at the hands of the Leafs last night. I will get behind Washington on Wednesday, however, as it draws this divisional matchup, noting that it has taken six of the last seven meetings between these two teams in Newark. The Devils have been playing a lot looser than they probably would like with the 'over' having cashed in all five of their games to date. They've given up 11 goals in three home games this season. I think that opens the door for the slumping Capitals offense here - a team desperate to break out after being held to just seven goals in its first five games. Take Washington (8*). |
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10-24-23 | Stars v. Penguins -104 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Pittsburgh returns home licking its wounds after a winless two-game road trip in Detroit and St. Louis. I look for the Penguins to bounce back on Tuesday as they host the Stars. Dallas is off to a 3-0-1 start after notching back-to-back victories over the Ducks and Flyers, two teams that figure to wind up near the bottom of the NHL standings this season. While I am high on the Stars overall prospects this season, I don't like the spot here as they travel for a one-game trip against a non-conference foe. Note that Dallas is just 45-58 in its last 103 games following consecutive one-goal victories and 97-119 in its last 216 contests coming off an overtime win. This is the start of a key four-game homestand for the Pens before a stretch that sees them play 13 of their next 20 games on the road. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-22-23 | Flames -137 v. Red Wings | 2-6 | Loss | -137 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Detroit at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Flames to rebound following Friday's loss in Columbus as they catch Detroit in a tough back-to-back spot following yesterday's 5-2 win in Ottawa which marked its fourth straight victory. Ville Husso was the star for the Wings yesterday, turning aside 35-of-37 shots. He also stood on his head in last year's 2-1 home win over the Flames as he stopped 35-of-36 shots (Detroit managed only 17 shots in that contest). Calgary should be pleased to be facing Wings backup goaltender James Reimer on Sunday. He did record a shutout in his lone previous start this season (against Columbus) but I'm confident we'll see the Flames get to him here. Note that Detroit is a long-term 10-21 when coming off four straight games in which it scored at least four goals, as is the case here. Take Calgary (8*). |
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10-21-23 | Maple Leafs -130 v. Lightning | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Maple Leafs opened the season with back-to-back wins but have since seen their record fall to 2-2 with losses against the Blackhawks and Panthers. Toronto has scored just two goals in its last two games but I look for it to bounce back offensively here. Note that the Lightning have allowed three or more goals in all five games this season and should continue to struggle keeping pucks out of their net until Andrei Vasilevskiy is able to return between the pipes. Toronto is 33-9 when coming off two losses in its last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Leafs are also a long-term 56-43 (+10.2 net games) after scoring one goal or less in consecutive games. This is a 'revenge game' for the Bolts after being ousted by the Leafs in the first round of the playoffs. With that being said, the Leafs are 6-4 in their last 10 games in Tampa and I look for them to rise to the occasion again here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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10-20-23 | Flames v. Blue Jackets +127 | 1-3 | Win | 127 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames face a quick turn-around on Friday in Columbus after skating to a hard-fought 4-3 win in Buffalo last night. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have had three days to stew on a 4-0 loss suffered at home against the Red Wings on Monday. Note that Columbus is 8-4 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more since the start of last season. Calgary checks in 10-21 after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest over the same stretch. This matchup obviously carries a little extra meaning for Blue Jackets superstar Johnny Gaudreau as he faces his former team. Last year, Columbus held its own against Calgary, splitting a pair of matchups including a 3-1 victory here on home ice. Take Columbus (8*). |
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10-19-23 | Canucks v. Lightning -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning are coming off a disappointing 0-3 road trip that saw them face three up-and-coming Atlantic Division foes that are all gunning for their spot this season. Tampa Bay looked rather lethargic until the third period against Buffalo on Tuesday. While it did end up losing that game in overtime, perhaps the fact that it rallied to earn a point gives it a bit of a boost entering this matchup with the Canucks on Thursday. Vancouver was lifeless in Tuesday's shutout loss in Philadelphia. More regression could be on the way for the Canucks as this four-game road trip continues. Note that the Lightning have won six straight meetings in this series, scoring at least five goals in four of those games. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay is 81-44 under head coach Jon Cooper when coming off consecutive losses, outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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10-18-23 | Penguins v. Red Wings +108 | 3-6 | Win | 108 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Penguins certainly boast more high-profile talent but I think the Red Wings are playing better hockey out of the gates this season. Pittsburgh dropped an ugly 4-2 decision at home against the Blackhawks before rebounding with consecutive wins over the Capitals and Flames. Keep in mind, it didn't score in the first two periods against Calgary before exploding for five goals in the third. All in all, we've seen an uneven brand of hockey from the Pens through three games. Detroit has collected at least a point in all three games and checks in off consecutive wins over the Lightning and Blue Jackets. With 13 goals through three games, the Wings are firing on all cylinders right now. There's no reason for them to be intimidated here after taking two of three meetings in this series last season. Take Detroit (8*). |
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10-17-23 | Canucks -140 v. Flyers | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. There's a lot to like about the Canucks right now. They were ripe for a letdown, giving up an early going against the Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday night but rather than folding the tent, they battled for 60 minutes and came away with a 4-3 win - their second straight victory over Edmonton to open the season. While they're not likely to remain undefeated through the end of this five-game road trip, I don't think their streak ends in Philadelphia. The Flyers got off to a surprisingly hot start last season but it was all downhill from there and we can expect more of the same from this rebuilding squad in 23-24. Philadelphia has split its first two games, winning in Columbus before dropping a 5-2 decision in Ottawa. I simply feel Vancouver has a lot more upside right now as it is getting terrific goaltending and has been scoring in bunches. The Flyers still have a big question mark between the pipes with Carter Hart once again struggling to the tune of a .891 save percentage through two games. I know it's early but Hart has never really settled into the gig in Philadelphia. Take Vancouver (8*). |
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10-16-23 | Coyotes v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I think the Coyotes are going to prove to be one of the more exciting teams to watch in the NHL this season and they certainly showed why in their season-opener on Friday - a 4-3 shootout win over the Devils. Here, they're running into a tough spot as the Rangers return home off a blowout loss in Columbus on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with New York coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 8.1 goals. Small sample size, I know, but I think the play sets up well here as the Coyotes are brimming with talent up front but perhaps subpar at the back-end and shouldn't shy away from another high-scoring affair. Having scored just three goals combined in two losses against the Rangers last season, the Coyotes know that type of offensive production just isn't going to cut it in this particular matchup. Take the over (8*). |
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10-15-23 | Lightning +105 v. Senators | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. It would be easy to get down on the Lightning following last night's dismal performance in Detroit (lost 6-4 and were outshot 42-25). Instead, we'll back the Bolts as they get right back on the ice against another divisional foe in Ottawa on Sunday. Note that they were in a similar situation in the preseason after giving up 50+ shots in a loss against the Panthers, rebounding with a 4-2 win in a quick rematch two nights later. Tampa Bay likely had this game circled on its current three-game road trip noting that it has dropped consecutive meetings in this series, allowing a whopping seven goals in both games. The Sens skated to a 5-2 win over the Flyers yesterday afternoon to even their record at 1-1. We'll note that they're just 11-21 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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10-14-23 | Canucks v. Oilers -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks blasted the Oilers 8-1 in Wednesday's season-opener in Vancouver. We'll confidently back the Oilers to bounce back as they wrap up this home-and-home series in Edmonton on Saturday. The last four matchups between these two teams have now been decided by two or more goals. Note that Vancouver hasn't defeated Edmonton in consecutive meetings since 2019-2021 (Covid year in between). The Oilers clearly weren't up for the challenge on Wednesday, perhaps assuming the Canucks would simply roll over with a flu running through their dressing room and a number of players under the weather. Instead, Vancouver came up with an inspired performance with Brock Boeser leading the way with four goals. The good news for Edmonton is that every loss counts the same, regardless the score. Here, we'll note that the Oilers have averaged 4.2 goals per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons. I don't expect the Canucks to keep pace in this quick rematch. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (8*). |
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10-13-23 | Penguins -119 v. Capitals | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Penguins let the Blackhawks off the hook on Tuesday, perhaps thinking they had two points in the bag up 2-0 in the second period. Of course a veteran team like Pittsburgh should know that you can never take anything for granted in today’s NHL, regardless the level of opposition. Here, I look for the Pens to bounce back against hated rival Washington on Friday night. The Capitals elected to more or less stand pat with their veteran roster during the offseason. This season will likely be more about Alex Ovechkin’s chase for the all-time scoring record than anything else. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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10-12-23 | Seattle Kraken +102 v. Predators | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We've seen this line shift toward the Predators, likely due to the Kraken's lopsided 4-1 loss in Las Vegas two nights ago. Seattle didn't get much 'puck luck' in that game, outshooting the Golden Knights by a 33-28 margin. Meanwhile, the Predators opened their campaign with a 5-3 loss in Tampa, blowing a 3-2 third period lead in that defeat. There was really no excuse for Nashville to come out as flat as it did in that game as it was outshot 12-2 in the opening period. The Kraken took two of three meetings in this series last season, scoring 14 goals in the process. Note that Seattle has reeled off eight straight victories when playing on the road following a division game, outscoring opponents by 2.3 goals on average in that situation. Take Seattle (8*). |
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10-10-23 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -165 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights will raise their Stanley Cup banner to the rafters at T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday night but I look for the Kraken to be the ones celebrating at the end of the night. We'll grab the insurance goal here as I had the puck-line price pegged much closer to -200. Vegas is coming off a preseason that saw it win just two of seven games by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the Kraken lost just two of six preseason tilts by 2+ goals. Of course we can throw those preseason results out the window pretty quickly with the puck dropping for real on Tuesday. I do like the matchup here, noting that the Kraken were more than just a 'tough out' on the road last season, going 26-11-4. They enter this season with a chip on their shoulder after upsetting the Avalanche in seven games in the opening round of the playoffs but falling to the Stars in another seven-game grinder in the second round. The Golden Knights essentially stood pat in the offseason and why not after winning their first Stanley Cup in June. With that being said, I do think they have an aging defensive corps that could ultimately be exposed by teams like the Kraken in the early stages of this season. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Tuesday. The last two games managed to stay 'under' the total which has been par for the course for this particular matchup in Sunrise. It's been a much different story in Las Vegas and I expect that to continue to be the case on Tuesday, noting that all seven previous meetings on the Strip have totalled at least six goals. In this series we saw Games 1 and 2 reach seven and nine total goals. It's desperation time for the Panthers now and here we'll note that the 'over' is 10-3 when they come off a one-goal loss this season with that spot producing an average total of 7.6 goals. The 'over' is also 22-11 with the Golden Knights playing at home following a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Interestingly, Vegas hasn't been as stingy from a defensive standpoint at home this season, allowing 2.9 goals per game compared to its season average of 2.7 goals allowed per contest. Florida checks in giving up 3.5 goals per game on the road compared to its season average of 3.3. Take the over (10*). |
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06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Florida at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a reversal of sorts in this series in Game 3 as the Panthers won in overtime in a low-scoring affair. Keep in mind, Games 1 and 2 had totalled seven and nine goals. I expect another lower-scoring contest than most are anticipating on Saturday noting that the 'under' is a long-term 30-16 with the Golden Knights playing on the road seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent. While all seven all-time meetings between these two teams in Las Vegas have totalled at least six goals, four of the last five matchups here in Sunrise have reached five total goals or less. Here in the 2022-23 campaign, the Knights have held the opposition to just 2.6 goals per game on the road. The Panthers haven't been as stout defensively at home, but have still been better in that regard than on the road, limiting foes to 3.0 goals per contest (compared to their 3.3 goals allowed per game overall). Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Last round, the Golden Knights won Games 1 and 2 on home ice before prevailing in Game 3 in Dallas as well. Here, I don't anticipate such a walk in the park for Vegas as it makes to the trip across the continent to face the Panthers in Sunrise on Thursday. Florida has shown plenty of fight through the first two games of this series but has nothing to show for it, dropping consecutive lopsided affairs. Note that the Golden Knights are a woeful 4-13 all-time when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal along the way. Also note that the Panthers are 20-8 when coming off three straight games in which they gave up three goals or more this season, which is also the situation here. Vegas has obviously won the last two matchups between these two teams but hasn't notched three consecutive victories in this series since 2019-20 - the only time that has occurred in the all-time series. Take Florida (10*). |
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06-05-23 | Panthers +124 v. Golden Knights | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Vegas at 8:10 pm et on Monday. After an emotional victory in Game 1 of this series on Saturday I look for the Golden Knights to suffer a bit of a letdown in Game 2, allowing the Panthers to rise up and even this series at one game apiece. While the Panthers haven't had a great deal of success against the Golden Knights in the all-time series between these two teams (they've never won in Las Vegas), they have managed to go 3-2 when coming off a loss by two goals or more in their previous matchup, as is the case here. Note also that Florida is 10-4 when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. I didn't feel that Game 1 was as lopsided as the final score indicated, noting that the Panthers actually outshot the Knights by a 35-34 margin. Take Florida (8*). |
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06-03-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -123 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Vegas over Florida at 8 pm et on Saturday. You have to figure the Golden Knights couldn't have their guard any more raised as they host the upstart Panthers in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday. I say that after Florida stole Games 1 and 2 in a building that's generally tough on opposing teams in Raleigh last round (it did the same in round two in Toronto as well) on its way to a series sweep. The Golden Knights are also coming off a loss in their most recent home game last Saturday against the Stars (before they won Game 6 in blowout fashion in Dallas). Here, we'll note that the home team won both regular season meetings between these two squads, including a 2-1 Panthers victory in their most recent matchup back in March. Note that the Knights check in an incredible 34-11 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Panthers have fared exceptionally well against Eastern Conference opponents this season, they're just 13-19 against the Western Conference, allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. Take Vegas (10*). |
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05-29-23 | Golden Knights +113 v. Stars | 6-0 | Win | 113 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Saturday but we'll switch gears and back the Golden Knights as they try again to close out the Stars on Monday. Note that Vegas is 14-6 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season and 19-7 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. The Knights have been a terrific road team all season, going 31-17 and I'm confident they can come through for a second time in Dallas in this series to wrap things up on Monday. Take Vegas (8*). |
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05-27-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars have now been held to three goals or less in six straight games - matching a season-high. We've seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total. That's worth noting as the Golden Knights haven't seen more than three games in a row stay 'under' since back in January. We'll also note that the 'over' is 11-3 with the Knights playing at home seeking revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As we've noted previously in this series, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger appears to be wearing down and that's not surprising as he'll be between the pipes for an 80th time this season on Saturday. Knights goaltender Adin Hill has performed admirably but he's also faced a ton of shots in this series, 36, 28, 34 and 42 through four games, and will be starting a season-high eighth straight game with only one stretch of more than one day off between contests over that stretch. I expect both offenses to produce here. Take the over (8*). |
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05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games in this series as the Golden Knights have taken a 3-0 stranglehold, pushing the Stars to the brink of elimination on Thursday. Vegas took Game 3 by a score of 4-0 and that's notable as only twice previously this season have the Knights played on the road following a shutout with those two contests totalling seven and eight goals (both victories). While the Stars were held off the scoresheet in Game 3, it wasn't for lack of trying. They carried the play over the game's final 50 minutes, peppering Knights goaltender Adin Hill at times. There were a number of posts and near-misses - I'm confident they convert some of those opportunities on Thursday. Dallas will be without Jamie Benn (suspension) and Evgeni Dadonov (injury) but neither are consistent point producers (11 and 10 points in the playoffs respectively). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing a staggering average total of 8.7 goals. The 'over' is also 16-8 with Dallas at home having lost at least two consecutive meetings with an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that spot. There's been no letdown from the Knights offensively in similar situations this season as they average 4.0 goals per game when playing on the road after posting a road win in which they scored four or more goals. As I've noted previously, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has been extremely overworked, approaching 80 appearances this season (this will mark his 79th). His save percentage has dipped to .895 in the playoffs and .876 over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-23-23 | Golden Knights +130 v. Stars | 4-0 | Win | 130 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Dallas Stars played a perfect road game on Sunday in Las Vegas - for just shy of 58 minutes anyway. It wasn't enough as the Golden Knights tied the game at the 17:38 mark of the third period before winning it just over a minute into overtime. Now the Stars are feeling all of the pressure as they return home for Game 3 on Tuesday. While all signs point to Dallas evening up the series, I believe the value is with the underdog Knights in this spot. Vegas goaltender Adin Hill has stepped in and performed admirably, stopping 186-of-200 shots (.930 save percentage) in these playoffs. While Hill is fresh, having only appeared in 36 games this season, Stars netminder Jake Oettinger looks like he might be running out of gas, and for good reason. Tuesday will mark his 78th appearance in goal for the Stars this season. In the playoffs, Oettinger has seen his save percentage drop to .901. Over his last four games he has posted an .882 save percentage. I absolutely love the Knights depth and simply feel that they're not going to roll over for the Stars with the scene shifting to Dallas on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that Dallas is just 5-9 when playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Vegas is 22-10 when playing on the road coming off a victory this season, averaging 3.6 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. Take Vegas (8*). |
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05-21-23 | Stars +107 v. Golden Knights | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Vegas at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Game 1 of this series obviously could have gone either way as the Golden Knights ultimately prevailed in the early stages of overtime to grab a 1-0 series lead. I look for the Stars to answer back on Sunday. Note that Dallas is a perfect 7-0 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 2.8 goals in that situation. The Stars are 14-5 off a loss this season and haven't dropped consecutive games since March 14th and 16th. The Knights, meanwhile, are just 3-7 when playing at home after winning their previous contest in overtime, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goal in that spot. Take Dallas (8*). |
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05-20-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina -1.5 goals over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Panthers rallied to take the opener of this series on Thursday but needed nearly four full overtime periods to get it done in a game that could have obviously gone either way. This was poised to be a long series from the outset and home ice hasn't really meant all that much in this particular matchup in recent years so I don't think the Hurricanes will be too rattled by dropping the series-opener. The Panthers are headed into 'uncharted territory' - a term I've used on numerous occasions during these playoffs - as they've now matched a season-high nine straight games in which they've avoided losing by two goals or more. I expect that to change on Saturday. Note that the last time they put together such a stretch from February 28th to March 20th they went on to lose their next game by a 6-3 score in Philadelphia. Here, we'll note that the Panthers are 2-12 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive one-goal road victories, as is the case here. The Hurricanes have been stingy at the best of times this season, holding opponents to just 2.6 goals per game but that number drops to 2.1 when coming off a one-goal loss. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed a lofty 3.8 goals per game when coming off a road victory over the last two seasons. Finally, we'll point to the fact that 30 of Florida's 44 losses this season have come by two goals or more. Take Carolina -1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-18-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Panthers enter this series on a season-high five-game 'under' streak but I look for it to come to an end on Thursday in Raleigh. Florida did have one previous 'under' streak last five games this season, that coming from February 24th to March 7th. I simply feel the Panthers are going to have their hands full trying to defend the Hurricanes relentless offensive attack in this series. While Carolina has become known for its smothering defense and back-checking, it has also shown that it can score in bunches. Note that in the only two games in which it held New Jersey to fewer than 29 shots on goal last round, Carolina ended up finding the back of the net a combined 11 times. In other words, if the Hurricanes aren't giving up a lot of opportunities, that only means they're spending considerable time in the opposing team's zone, and likely capitalizing. It certainly seems that the Canes have had Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky's number. They've faced him seven times since he joined the Panthers, scoring at least three goals in six of those games. Of course, the same could be said for the Panthers against Canes netminder Frederik Andersen, albeit with a smaller sample size. Since joining the Canes, Andersen has faced Florida three times, allowing a whopping 11 goals. The Panthers, despite being listed as the underdog in all 12 playoff games to date, have displayed a fairly reliable offensive floor, held to fewer than two goals on only two previous occasions. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 20-10 with the Panthers seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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05-14-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -180 | 5-2 | Loss | -180 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Vegas at 10 pm et on Sunday. The Golden Knights rallied for a 4-3 win over the Oilers in Game 5 of this series on Friday. Now it's Edmonton's turn to bounce back once again as it looks to force a seventh-and-deciding game. I like the Oilers chances in this spot, noting that the Golden Knights haven't won consecutive games against Edmonton since back in February and March 2020. The Oilers haven't dropped back-to-back contests since February 25th and 27th. While Vegas has done a good job of keeping pace with Edmonton in this series and averages 3.3 goals per game on the season, that scoring average drops to 2.5 gpg when it checks in off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 3.9 gpg on the campaign but that number rises to 4.3 when coming off a one-goal defeat. Finally, we'll note that the Oilers are 13-3 off a road loss this season, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot, and better still, they're 19-5 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent this season, outscoring foes by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Stars v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Stars have taken over this series thanks to consecutive lopsided victories. With that being said, it's difficult enough to string together three straight wins by two goals or more but to do it against the same opponent is even tougher. Case in point, prior to the last two games, the Stars had never even won consecutive matchups in this series by multiple goals. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch from March 1st to 4th to find the last time Dallas reeled off three straight victories by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the Kraken haven't lost three straight games by multiple goals since February 7th to 10th. Here, we'll note that Dallas is a woeful 9-19 when playing on the road after winning their previous contest by three goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. The Stars are also just 7-11 when coming off a home win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that spot. Seattle checks in 15-8 when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored five goals or more this season, which is the situation here, outscoring foes by 0.8 goals on average along the way. When playing with double-revenge this season, the Kraken are 14-9 having outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (8*). |
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05-12-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We've now seen each of the last three games in this series stay 'under' the total after a wild, high-scoring series-opener that produced 10 goals. Here, I believe we're well-positioned to back the 'over' as the Golden Knights look to answer back following a 4-1 loss in an animosity-filled Game 4. Of course, both teams will be without a defenseman due to suspension in this contest with Darnell Nurse of the Oilers and Alex Pietrangelo of the Knights forced to sit. Neither has provided much offensive spark in these playoffs but certainly play key roles on the blue line and will be missed here. I believe Pietrangelo's absence in particular further opens things up for the Oilers explosive offense as the Knights simply don't have anyone waiting in the wings capable of replacing the veteran's steadiness in critical moments (most notably against a lethal Oilers power play as Pietrangelo works on the Knights top penalty kill unit). Here, we'll note that Edmonton averages an impressive 4.1 goals per game on the road this season but that number rises to 4.6 when facing division opponents (18-game sample size). Note that the Oilers will likely be facing Knights goaltender Adin Hill again here, noting that they've now seen him in two previous starts, scoring eight goals on 56 shots (good for a weak .857 save percentage on Hill's part). Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on home ice this season but that number rises considerably to 4.3 when coming off a road loss (seven-game sample size). Also note that we've seen the 'over' go 9-1 with the Knights seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 7.3 goals in that situation. Better still, even with the 'under' cashing in the last three games in this series, the 'over' is 21-9 with Edmonton coming off an 'under' result this season, resulting in 7.7 total goals on average in that spot. We haven't seen four straight meetings in this series stay 'under' the total since a four-game 'under' streak from April 2019 to March 2020. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-23 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers +110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Maple Leafs jumped ahead 1-0 early in Game 3 of this series on Sunday and might have thought the underdog Panthers would simply fold from there but that was far from the case as Florida ended up prevailing 3-2 in overtime. The Panthers have now won a season-high six straight games and while I won't make a habit of backing teams heading into 'uncharted territory' I'm willing to make an exception here. Toronto has now been held to exactly two goals in five straight games. That's just not going to cut it, particularly when you have a defense as vulnerable as Toronto does, noting that it has given up three goals or more in seven of nine playoff games to date. To make matters worse, the Leafs lost goaltender Ilya Samsonov to injury in Game 3 meaning Joseph Woll will likely get the start in goal on Wednesday. He's been sharp when called upon this season but suddenly has the pressure of Leafs Nation on his back after allowing the game-winning goal in overtime on Sunday, pushing the team to the brink of elimination. Note that Toronto is just 1-6 when playing on the road seeking revenge for two or more consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.3 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, the Leafs are 0-5 when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against a foe in which it scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Panthers have been an excellent 'positive-momentum' play this season, going a perfect 7-0 when coming off consecutive victories over division opponents this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 2.4 goals along the way. Going back over the last two seasons, Florida owns a perfect 5-0 mark after winning three straight games over divisional foes. Take Florida (10*). |
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05-09-23 | Stars -131 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Kraken took control of this series with a dominant 7-2 victory in Game 3 on Sunday but I look for the Stars to answer back and even the series on Tuesday. Note that Dallas hasn't lost consecutive games since March 14th and 16th. The Stars check in a perfect 6-0 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. They're also 11-3 when playing on the road after allowing four goals or more in their previous game, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Kraken are just 2-7 when playing at home after winning their previous game by three goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. While Dallas did allow a whopping seven goals in Sunday's defeat, those type of performances have been few-and-far-between this season as it has been stingy, particularly on the road where it has given up just 2.6 goals per contest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.8 goals in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). |
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05-08-23 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Oilers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Oilers routed the Golden Knights 5-1 on Saturday after dropping the opener of this series by a 6-4 score. I don't believe this is a series where home ice will matter a great deal, noting that both teams have been terrific on the road this season and certainly in these playoffs (combined 4-1 to date). Vegas checks in 28-15 away from home this season, outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. I mentioned the Knights are coming off a lopsided loss in Game 2 and that's notable as they haven't lost consecutive games by two goals or more since November 25th and 26th and that marked the only time it happened all season. Going back over the history of this series (since the Golden Knights joined the league in 2017), the Oilers have never defeated Vegas by multiple goals in consecutive meetings. The Knights have been terrific when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, going 25-11 while outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Oilers are just 7-11 when playing at home off a victory by two goals or more this season and a long-term 18-24 on home ice after scoring three goals or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. Take Vegas +1.5 goals (8*). |
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05-07-23 | Hurricanes v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New Jersey at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The first two games of this series have gone 'over' the total with the Hurricanes doing most of the heavy-lifting, scoring 11 goals compared to the Devils' two. Note that we haven't seen three straight meetings between these two teams go 'over' the total in the same season since way back in the 2013-14 campaign. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch that spanned between 2019 and 2022 (thanks to Covid) to find the last time any three consecutive matchups between these division rivals went 'over' the total. I would anticipate the Devils turning to Vitek Vanecek between the pipes in Game 3. He's played a big role in New Jersey's incredibly stingy nature here at home this season, where it has allowed just 2.6 goals per game. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 23-9 with the Devils playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Canes have seen the 'under' go 11-3 when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals in that situation. Finally, we'll note that Carolina has averaged just 2.3 goals per game with an average total of only 5.2 goals when playing on the road after winning four of its last five contests over the last two seasons (26-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-06-23 | Oilers -120 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 24 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Vegas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Golden Knights took Game 1 of this series in a wild 6-4 affair that was probably a little closer than the final score indicates. Edmonton definitely didn't bring its 'A' game (apart from Leon Draisaitl) but it was still right there, pulling within a goal in the third period before the Knight sealed the victory with a late empty-netter. I'm confident we'll see the Oilers bounce back on Saturday. Note that Vegas hasn't won consecutive meetings between these two teams since 2020. Since then, the Oilers have gone 6-3 in this series. I've talked about teams heading into 'uncharted territory' quite often in these playoffs (both NHL and NBA) and I'll bring it up again here as Vegas has now won five straight games. It has only managed to win five or more games in a row twice previously this season and only once has hit won six or more consecutive games with that nine-game winning streak coming way back in late October-early November. Here, we'll note that the Knights have averaged just 2.1 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals when playing at home off a win by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons (16-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Oilers have held opponents to just 2.5 goals per game and outscored foes by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest over the last two seasons (20-game sample size). Better still, Edmonton is a perfect 7-0 when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more against a division foe over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. Finally, the Knights are 4-12 when coming off consecutive home victories by two goals or more in team history, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -195 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This price may seem high at first glance but I believe it could be even higher. Scoring first (and early) might just have been the worst thing that could have happened to the favored Stars in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Dallas probably thought the relatively inexperienced Kraken would fold rather quickly and that this series might just be the lopsided affair that many were predicting after Seattle pulled off its stunning upset win over the heavily-favored Avalanche in Game 7 of round one just two nights earlier. Instead, Seattle answered right back and ultimately scored four first period goals before allowing the Stars to rally back from a two-goal third period deficit. The Kraken ultimately won that game in overtime but I look for the Stars to answer back on Thursday. Note that Dallas has now dropped consecutive matchups with Seattle after winning four of the first five all-time meetings in the series. The Stars have averaged 3.8 goals per game while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons (22-game sample size), as is the case here. While Dallas averages 3.5 goals per game this season, that number jumps to 3.8 when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest (10-game sample size). As I noted in my analysis of Game 1 of this series, the Stars have had Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer's number, scoring 13 goals in three games against him going back to the start of last season. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger didn't have his best performance on Tuesday but actually kept the Stars in the game over the final two periods of regulation time and ultimately stopped 39-of-44 shots. The Stars haven't lost consecutive games since March 14th and 16th while the Kraken's most recent winning streak lasting more than two games (their current streak) came when they reeled off five straight wins from April 3rd to 10th (note that three of those victories came against the Coyotes and the other two were against the Canucks and Blackhawks - all non-playoff contending teams). Take Dallas (8*). |
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05-03-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey and Carolina at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs to open the second round of the NHL Playoffs last night. I expect nothing of the sort as the Devils and Hurricanes do battle in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Wednesday, however. New Jersey has averaged 3.4 goals per game this season but its offensive production fell off a cliff in round one against the Rangers, partly by design. The Devils averaged only 2.4 goals per contest during that seven-game series and we got a pretty good indication of how they want to play in the postseason as they often sat back defensively, waiting for the opportunity to counter-attack, ultimately firing fewer than 30 shots on goal in five of seven contests. I don't think Lindy Ruff's team will want to trade scoring opportunities with Carolina either, certainly not in the first two games of the series here in Raleigh. Note that the Hurricanes offense wasn't exactly humming in the opening round either, averaging 2.7 goals per game over the course of that six-game series against the Islanders. The Canes have of course had to make some adjustments with Andrei Svechnikov - scoring option 1B to Sebastian Aho's 1A - going down with a season-ending injury late in the regular season and then losing Teuvo Teravainen to a broken hand in round one as well. Carolina boasts one of the strongest defensive corps of any team remaining in the NHL Playoffs and I believe that group will prove difficult to break down in this series. The Canes have allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season with that number dropping to 2.2 when coming off a victory over a divisional opponent (13-game sample size), as is the case here. It's worth mentioning that while these two teams have met eight times since the start of 2022, we could be seeing a new goaltending matchup here as Devils breakout netminder Akira Schmid has never faced Carolina while Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen hasn't taken the crease against New Jersey since he was a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs (he owns a 2.11 goals against average .934 save percentage in nine career games vs. the Devils). Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 157-109 with the Devils coming off a home win in which they scored four goals or more, which is the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 5-4 | Win | 109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter this series riding 'under' streaks. The final four games of the Kraken's stunning first round upset of the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche stayed 'under' the total while the Stars saw each of their last three contests against the Wild cruise 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold as the two teams meet in the postseason for the first time on Tuesday. While Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer certainly appeared to have the Avs number in round one, I think he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his heroics here in round two. Note that Dallas has faced Grubauer twice in the brief series history between these two teams, scoring nine goals in those two contests. It's actually a similar story for the Kraken against Stars netminder Jake Oettinger. He's been between the pipes for Dallas in all six previous meetings in this series with Seattle scoring 18 goals and no fewer than two goals in any of those games. Of course, it's not all about the goaltenders. We're going to need this game to open up considerably compared to what we saw in the latter stages of the two teams' respective opening round series'. Here, we'll note that while Seattle averages 3.4 goals per game on the season, that average rises to 3.8 when playing on the road off a road victory (29-game sample size), as is the case here. The Stars have been fairly stingy on home ice, allowing just 2.7 goals per game this season but that average jumps to 4.0 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more (eight-game sample size), which is also the situation here (Kraken won the last meeting 5-4 in Dallas). In fact, the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that spot producing an average total of 9.2 goals. While playoff hockey tends to be lower-scoring, I would argue that the stakes were similarly high for both teams - keeping in mind this is only Game 1 of this series - when they matched up three times over an 11-day span back in March (the Kraken were fighting to get in the playoffs while the Stars were battling for playoff seeding). Those three games totalled seven, seven and nine goals (the last result was aided by overtime). Take the over (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Rangers +110 v. Devils | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers answered back with a resounding 5-2 home win on Saturday to force a seventh-and-deciding game in this series. While the home team has now won back-to-back contests, home ice advantage hasn't meant much in the long-term picture in this series with the visiting side prevailing in 14 of the last 25 matchups. The Devils find themselves in tough off that lopsided defeat on Saturday, noting that they're just 7-17 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed five goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goal in that situation. Say what you will about the Rangers up-and-down nature in this series but at least their best players have lived up their billing for the most part. Meanwhile, the Devils have received just four assists and a -1 rating from captain Nico Hischier and no points and a -3 from highly-touted pre-trade deadline acquisition Timo Meier. Jack Hughes can't shoulder the entire offensive load, noting that he has scored three of the team's 13 goals in this series but has found the back of the net just once in the last four games. Meanwhile, the Rangers finally uncovered some cracks in breakout goaltender Akira Schmid's armor on Saturday (he was pulled after allowing five goals on 29 shots). I'm comfortable backing the Blueshirts at an underdog price with all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin having been at his best on the road all season, where he has recorded a .923 save percentage with New York winning 19 of his 28 starts. I'm still not sure we've seen his best game in this series. Take New York (8*). |
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04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has now cashed in three straight games in this series and that's not a trend I expect to reverse in Game 7 on Sunday. Keep in mind, we've previously seen a six-game 'under' streak between these two teams and that's notable when you consider there have only been 12 all-time meetings. Similarly, the Avalanche's current three-game 'under' streak has been topped by four previous 'under' runs lasting four games or more this season and that includes a December stretch that saw nine straight games stay 'under' the total. The Kraken have had three previous 'under' streaks lasting more than three games this season as well. We know Seattle will want to make this game as ugly as possible as it looks to pull off the major round one upset in enemy territory. Note that the 'under' is 22-11 with Seattle coming off a game in which it allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 24-17-3 in Colorado's home games this season, where it has given up just 2.7 goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-23 | Devils v. Rangers -119 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rangers have inexplicably dropped three straight games and now face elimination at the hands of the rival Devils at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. New Jersey is an elite team - it wasn't simply going to roll over after digging itself an 0-2 hole in this series. Remember, just a week ago, the Rangers were returning home up 2-0 in the series and most were already punching their ticket to the next round. I do like the fact that Game 5 of this series was so lopsided in favor of New Jersey. Note that the Rangers have averaged 4.8 goals per game and outscored the opposition by 1.2 goals on average when coming off a road loss by two goals or more this season (five-game sample size). While they did lose in the same situation on Thursday, the Blueshirts are still 27-15 when seeking revenge for two or more consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. You would have to go back to 2020-21 to find the last time the Devils won three straight meetings in this series. They would go on to lose the next matchup by a 6-1 score. Finally, we'll note that the Devils are a long-term 17-29 when coming off three straight games in which they allowed one goal or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a long-term 117-87 when coming off three consecutive losses. Take New York (10*). |
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04-28-23 | Avalanche -145 v. Seattle Kraken | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Inexplicably, we've only really seen the Avalanche truly raise their level of play once in this series, that coming in their 6-4 Game 3 victory right here in Seattle. From there, with a 2-1 series lead, it appeared the Avs would cruise but an overtime loss in Game 4 seemed to turn the tide back in the Kraken's direction and Seattle would go on to steal (they were fully deserving of the win) a victory in Colorado in Game 5. The Avs were without arguably the best defenseman in the world in Cale Makar for that contest due to suspension but he'll be back on Friday. Here, we'll note that Colorado has allowed just 2.1 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.1 goal on average when coming off a one-goal home loss this season (nine-game sample size). Similarly, they've yielded just 2.2 goals per contest and outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season (14-game sample size). The Kraken are just 8-15 when coming off two wins in their last three games this season, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. These two teams have met 11 times since Seattle joined the league last season and it's proven to be a tightly-contested series with neither team managing to record three straight victories at any point (which is what the Kraken will be trying to accomplish here). I don't expect the defending Stanley Cup champions to go away quietly in this series. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-27-23 | Rangers +110 v. Devils | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. It seemed pretty clear that the Rangers got ahead of themselves after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in this series, with both wins coming on the road - in lopsided fashion. New Jersey responded with consecutive victories of its own in Manhattan so now the series shifts back to Newark all tied up at two games apiece. I look for the Rangers to regain the upper hand on Thursday, however. Both of these teams have been better on the road than at home this season so perhaps it should come as no surprise that the road team has won all four games in the series to date. Similar to the situation New Jersey was in on Saturday, the Rangers have now dropped back-to-back games for the first time since a four-game skid from February 18th to 25th. They've won on the road, scoring four, five and five goals, each of the last three times they've come off consecutive losses. Also note that New York is 12-3 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. The Rangers are also a perfect 6-0 when playing on the road off a home loss against a divisional foe over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.0 goal per game on average and outscoring opponents by an impressive 2.3 goals per game in that spot. The Devils, meanwhile, are just 8-17 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals along the way. New Jersey is also a long-term 77-101 when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed one goal or less, which is also the situation here. Take New York (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Panthers v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. A quick note to start, we want to play this total at 6.5 (even with the juice) rather than the 6.0 being offered at some books. I anticipate the total bumping up to 6.5 at the majority of books as the day progresses. We've seen three straight games total six goals or more in this series with the 'over' cashing at a 2-0-1 clip over that stretch. That's notable as we haven't seen more than three consecutive games involving the Bruins fail to stay 'under' the total since way back in their first four games this season (all four of those games went 'over' the total). Only twice previously since then have we see a three-game stretch without an 'under' result, on those two occasions their next contest resulted in a 3-2 home win over the Hurricanes on November 25th and a 3-1 home victory over the Panthers to open this series. Note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Bruins playing at home after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals in that situation. From the Panthers perspective, they've posted an 0-5 o/u record when playing on the road off a home loss by two goals or more this season, which is the situation tonight, leading to just 4.8 total goals on average in that spot. Going back further, the 'under' is 11-4 with Florida playing on the road after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 5.7 goals along the way. While the Panthers are known for their high-scoring ways, the fact is they haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak from March 20th to 25th. Since then, they've recorded a 5-5-3 o/u mark. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-23 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -150 | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Sometimes you simply draw a bad opening round matchup and I think that's been the case for the Islanders in this particular series. Going back to the start of 2019, spanning a stretch of 19 meetings including two playoff series' between these Metropolitan Division foes, the Islanders have managed to win two out of three games on just one previous occasion. They failed to accomplish that feat again on Sunday (following Friday's 5-1 victory) as they dropped a 5-2 decision in a game they quite simply needed to win on home ice. The Hurricanes are banged-up right now but their injuries are up front, where they've proven they have considerable depth. Carolina is an extremely difficult team to break down defensively with one of the best six-deep defensive corps' in the league. It enters this game having allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. That's in stark contrast to the Islanders, who are giving up 3.1 goals per game on home ice. Under Barry Trotz, the Isles were a fortress defensively, particularly on the road. That just hasn't been the case under the guidance of head coach Lane Lambert, however. New York has been one of the worst road teams in the league this season, winning only 17-of-43 games to date while being outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals per game. Here, we'll note that New York is a woeful 12-28 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canes are riding a nine-game winning streak at home in the opening round of the playoffs, including taking all four matchups in Raleigh against the Bruins in their first round series last year. New York's best players just haven't stepped up in this series. Bo Horvat in particular - the team's big pre-trade deadline acquisition - only recorded his first point of the series in Sunday's 5-2 loss, and that short-handed goal came in garbage time when the game had long been decided. Carolina has employed a 'next man up' philosophy this season, losing the likes of Max Pacioretty, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen and now rookie Jack Drury (he has an outside chance of playing on Tuesday after leaving Sunday's game) but continuing to press forward. Again, the Canes defense matches up exceptionally well with most opponents and the Islanders are no exception. One final note, Isles goaltender Ilya Sorokin is all-world to be sure and a worthy Vezina Trophy candidate this season. However, he hasn't appeared likely to steal a game in this series, posting a rather pedestrian .917 save percentage through the first four games. Note that he's now made 12 consecutive starts for the Isles and has had more than a single day off between games just twice going back to March 27th. Even the best goalies can wear down at this stage of the season and when you consider he's been between the pipes in 24 of New York's last 27 games, you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank (Carolina scored five goals on just 29 shots against him on Sunday). Take Carolina (8*). |
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04-24-23 | Avalanche -143 v. Seattle Kraken | 2-3 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Much like they did at the outset of this series when they dropped a 3-1 decision on home ice, the Avalanche appeared to take the Kraken's best punch early in Game 3 on Saturday, falling behind 1-0 before rallying for a 6-4 victory. Colorado has now reeled off 12 straight victories away from home with its last loss in enemy territory coming way back on March 4th in Dallas. Seattle has now dropped four of its last five games going back to the end of the regular season and has been outshot in all three contests in this series by a combined 110-88 margin. You have to wonder if the Kraken might consider a change between the pipes noting that Philipp Grubauer has posted a less-than-impressive .884 save percentage with Seattle winning only eight of his 21 starts on home ice this season. While that can work for some teams, as we saw with the Devils on Saturday in New York, I'm not sure it would be enough to turn the tide for the Kraken. Colorado has that extra gear to reach to and I think losing the opener of this series actually served it well in this opening round. Note that Colorado has been an excellent positive momentum play over the last two seasons, going 80-29 after winning four or five of its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. When playing on the road off a win this season, the Avs have gone 22-6, outscoring foes by 1.2 goals on average. Better still, when on the road off consecutive victories, Colorado has posted a 13-2 record this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals along the way. The Kraken have thrived on the road this season, going 27-16 but haven't enjoyed the same success at home where they're just 20-22, allowing 3.2 goals per game at Climate Pledge Arena. The Avs have won three of four all-time meetings in Seattle with the lone loss coming last April in a game where Seattle had to hang on for a 3-2 victory after jumping ahead 3-0 in the first period. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Oilers -151 v. Kings | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday. The Oilers are feeling a little short-changed after a controversial overtime finish in Game 3 of this series on Friday. I'm confident we'll see Edmonton bounce back from that defeat and even the series up at two games apiece on Sunday night in Los Angeles. The Oilers have been impressive at the best of times on the road this season, going 27-15 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. But they've been even better when playing on the road off a road loss, posting an 8-1 mark while outscoring foes by 1.6 goals on average (averaging 4.2 goals per game in that situation). Edmonton is also 16-5 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent this season, including 1-0 in that spot in this series, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. I have a lot of respect for the Kings and have backed them plenty of times over the course of the season, however they're playing with a rather small margin for error in this series, having been outshot in all three previous games by a combined 117-90 margin. Noting that Los Angeles is still just 16-35 under head coach Todd McClellan when facing opponents that outscore their foes by an average margin of 0.3 goals or more per game, which is the situation here, I look for the Oilers to prevail. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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04-22-23 | Devils +130 v. Rangers | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 8 pm et on Saturday. While the Rangers own a 2-0 stranglehold in this series after stealing Games 1 and 2 in Newark, I don't think we're going to see the Devils simply roll over with the series shifting to Manhattan for Game 3 on Saturday. New Jersey won a game here at Madison Square Garden in the regular season and actually pulled off three straight victories on the road against the Blueshirts as recently as 2020-21. Of course, the Devils have played their best hockey on the road this season, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Interestingly, Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been slightly weaker at home this season, posting a .913 save percentage while posting a 20-13 record in his 33 home starts. Home ice advantage is often overplayed in the postseason and I do think that's the case here, keeping in mind, only one of eight teams managed to hold serve at home in both games at the start of these playoffs (Carolina). While the Rangers have won consecutive games over the Devils, they haven't posted three straight victories in this series since late 2021 into 2022. Finally, we'll note that New Jersey is 12-7 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Better still, the Devils are 8-2 when on the road seeking revenge for a home loss by three goals or more over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring foes by 1.7 goals on average. Take New Jersey (8*). |
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04-21-23 | Bruins -154 v. Panthers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. UPDATE: Patrice Bergeron has been ruled OUT which shouldn't come as a surprise. What is unexpected is that goaltender Linus Ullmark is questionable to start. Even if he can't go, I'll still recommend a play on the Bruins as they have one of the best backup goaltenders in the league in Jeremy Swayman who owns a .920 save percentage on the season (.912 on the road where the Bruins have gone 13-6 in his 19 starts). Most had written off the Panthers prior to their Game 2 victory in Boston on Wednesday, perhaps including the Bruins as they came out flat on home ice and as a result are tied at one game apiece as this series shifts to Sunrise on Friday. I'm not overly concerned about Boston's outlook in this series. For my money, the B's have one of the best coaching staffs in the league, led by Jim Montgomery. I don't think it will take much at all for him to get his experienced group ready to bounce back in Game 3. We hadn't seen the Bruins play as poorly as they did on Wednesday since suffering a 6-3 loss in Chicago way back on March 14th. They followed up that ugly effort with a near-flawless 3-0 road win in Winnipeg two nights later. In fact, the Bruins are 38-13 off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Perhaps better still, Boston is 19-4 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. While the Panthers are 43-41 overall this season, they're just 16-26 after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. While the Panthers have posted consecutive wins over the Bruins as recently as 2019, you would have to go all the way back to the 2006-07 campaign to find the last time they beat the Bruins in two straight matchups in the same season. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-20-23 | Jets v. Golden Knights -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Vegas over Winnipeg at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Jets won Game 1 of this series by a lopsided score of 5-1 two nights ago but that final score didn't tell the whole story. It was a 2-1 game after two periods with Winnipeg pulling away late thanks to a pair of empty-net goals. Make no mistake, the Golden Knights came out inexplicably flat, managing just 17 shots on goal in the entire game. Perhaps given the fact they had swept the regular season series, were at home and had Mark Stone back in the lineup, a win would be assured. That simply wasn't the case as the Jets played a perfect playoff road game and earned at least a split in Las Vegas. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Golden Knights answer back, noting that they've only once previously lost consecutive home games against the Jets in their franchise history, and those two defeats came two-plus years apart in 2019 and 2022 (due to Covid-related scheduling quirks). Note that the Knights are 23-11 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. It's not as if this was a team playing poorly down the stretch. Quite the opposite, in fact, as Vegas secured a Pacific Division title thanks to going 24-9 over its final 33 regular season games. Over that stretch, the Knights lost consecutive games on only two occasions. They haven't dropped two straight games at home since January 14th to 19th when they lost three in a row here at T-Mobile Arena (that was in the midst of a 1-7 slide). Note that the Jets check in averaging just 2.3 goals per game after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation (15-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Knights have averaged 3.9 goals when seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal (17-game sample size). Take Vegas (10*). |
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04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -160 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Maple Leafs already had their share of doubters making their voices loud and clear leading into this series - that's what happens when you're a high-profile team that hasn't made it past the first round in what seems like an eternity. Of course, the noise is even louder after Toronto dropped the opener of this series in blowout fashion on Tuesday. I'm confident we see the Leafs respond favorably in Game 2 on Thursday, however. While Toronto hasn't been able to win a first round series in nearly two decades, it has had plenty of success on an individual game level. In fact, the Leafs are 11-3 in the first five games of a series when coming off a loss going back to 2013. Over the last three seasons, Toronto is 30-7 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Better still, the Leafs are 13-1 when playing at home off a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average along the way. The Lightning have to be pleased with stealing a game in Toronto when you consider they're just 19-23 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov has to shoulder some of the blame for their Game 1 loss as he wasn't sharp after being so good down the stretch. On the season, Samsonov still owns a solid .921 save percentage on home ice. On the flip side, Bolts netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has had a down year by most accounts, entering Thursday's game with a .900 save percentage over his last four games and a .912 save percentage on the road this season. The Leafs will be without Michael Bunting as he's been suspended for his questionable hit on key Lightning defenseman Eric Cernak in Game 1. That's probably not a bad trade-off for the Leafs as Cernak will miss Game 2, severely testing Tampa Bay's defensive depth with all-world d-man Victor Hedman questionable to play due to injury as well. Finally, we'll note that the Bolts are just 3-8 when playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in four consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that situation. Take Toronto (8*). |
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04-19-23 | Wild v. Stars -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Perhaps the Stars got caught reading some of their own press leading up to this series as many picked them as a possible sleeper team to come out of the Western Conference. Regardless, it was a sluggish start on home ice for Dallas as it was outshot 29-15 through the first two periods of Game 1 (but remained level at two goals apiece) before waking up and outshooting the Wild 38-19 the rest of the way in an eventual 3-2 double-overtime loss. As if the Stars needed any more fuel for their fire, they lost Joe Pavelski to a head injury following a questionable hit from repeat-offender Matt Dumba (he won't be suspended for the hit). Pavelski has given the Stars nearly a point-per-game this season, something they likely weren't counting on heading into the campaign. I do think Dallas has more than enough depth (and experience) up front to make up for Pavelski's absence should he be sidelined on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the Stars have held the opposition to just 2.5 goals per game and outscored foes by 1.0 goal on average when coming off a loss this season (33-game sample size). The Wild check in 4-10 when coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, allowing 3.5 goals per contest and outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Minnesota has now taken consecutive matchups against the Stars but hasn't won three in a row in this series since 2020-21. Game 1 could have gone either way but the Stars have to at least be happy with the way they played over the game's final two-plus periods. Knowing this series will only get tougher as it progresses with the Wild expected to get both John Klingberg and Joel Eriksson Ek back in the lineup sooner rather than later, evening this series up on home ice is obviously paramount for Dallas on Wednesday. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-18-23 | Rangers +118 v. Devils | Top | 5-1 | Win | 118 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We actually won with the Devils in each of the last two meetings between these two teams, most recently in their 2-1 victory here in Newark on March 30th. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday, however, as these two old Patrick Division rivals renew acquaintances in the postseason. The fact that New Jersey has won the last two matchups between these two teams is notable. The Devils haven't won three consecutive meetings in this series since 2020-21. They've met 14 times since. To find the last time New Jersey won three straight matchups in the same season you would have to go all the way back to 2013, when it still had Hall-of-Fame goaltender Martin Brodeur between the pipes. The Rangers also enter this playoff series on the heels of consecutive losses to close out the regular season. Of course those setbacks were of little consequence with playoff positioning already all but settled. Here, we'll note that the Rangers are 15-7 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. They're also 26-14 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. The Devils check in off consecutive wins to close out the regular season, including a come-from-behind 5-4 overtime victory in Washington last time out. Note that they're just 15-24 when playing at home after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last three seasons. While expectations are high for the Rangers entering these playoffs, I think starting on the road might be for the best as it does relieve some of the pressure. Note that New York was at its best away from home this season, going 24-17 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Take New York (10*). |
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04-17-23 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance we'll end up seeing the total set at 7 as this series progresses, at least that's how I see this matchup playing out. The Kings were banged-up down the stretch with the absences of Gabriel Vilardi and Kevin Fiala looming large. Both remain questionable to start this series but I'm assuming they'll both be out for Game 1 on Monday. Nevertheless, the Kings did figure out down the stretch they're not going to be successful if they can't ramp up their offense, even without some key contributors. I think we saw a turning point of sorts in their 4-3 home loss to the Avalanche on April 8th. They ended up scoring 3, 3 and 5 goals over their final three games after scoring two goals or less in four of their previous six contests. Note that over its last four games, Los Angeles fired 32, 41, 28 and 36 shots on goal. It will need to find some offense to pose any sort of challenge to the high-flying Oilers. Edmonton averaged an impressive 4.0 goals per game over the course of the regular season while the Kings gave up 3.2 goals per contest - a shell of its former self from a defensive perspective. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in the last two meetings between these teams. We've seen three straight matchups go 'under' the total just once going all the way back to April of 2017, covering a span of 28 meetings. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 19-8 with the Kings playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Oilers won 3-1 in Los Angeles on April 4th. That situation has produced an average total of 7.0 goals. Also note that the 'over' is 12-3 with the Oilers playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the same stretch, which is the situation here, leading to an average total of 7.6 goals in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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04-13-23 | Flyers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off victories two nights ago with the Flyers scoring four goals in an overtime win over the Blue Jackets and the Blackhawks dashing the Penguins playoff hopes with a stunning 5-2 road win. Offensive success hasn't been commonplace for either squad lately, however. Philadelphia has been held to three goals or less in regulation time in seven straight games. Chicago has scored three goals or less in 12 of its last 14 contests. These two teams last met back in January with the Blackhawks skating to a 4-1 road win. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Flyers seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals in that situation. We've seen Philadelphia suffer a considerable drop-off in offensive production on the road this season as it averages just 2.3 goals per game away from home compared to its 2.7 gpg overall scoring average. While Chicago has seen the 'over' cash in each of its last three contests, it has previously posted four straight 'over' results just once this season and that came back in mid-November. The 'under' has gone 6-1 with the Blackhawks coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season. The Flyers have posted back-to-back 'overs' but have reeled off more than two 'over' results in a row only once since February 21st, that coming in a five-game streak in mid-March. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning are reeling right now, losers of three games in a row, all on the road mind you. The Bolts are 27-7-5 on home ice this season and here, we'll note that they're 37-9 when playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, averaging 4.0 goals and outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Over the same stretch, Tampa Bay has also gone 28-7 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent, as is the case here, allowing just 2.1 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. The Maple Leafs check in off a 2-1 win over the Panthers in Sunrise last night. As I've noted many times before, sweeping a two-game trip to Florida is never easy and I expect the Leafs to find that out once again tonight. Note that the Leafs have won their last two games but have gone 9-14 when coming off consecutive victories this season, outscored by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Toronto is also a long-term 76-100 after holding three straight opponents to two goals or fewer, as is the case here. With neither team able to move up or down in the standings, the first round playoff series between them is already locked-in. With that being said, the Bolts will certainly be eager to right the ship in their final two regular season contests and I expect them to do just that right here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-10-23 | Canucks v. Kings -177 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The Kings have now lost three games in a row - only the second time all season they've done so. On the previous occasion, they bounced back with a 5-2 victory over the Sharks in their next game. Here, they'll have the opportunity to rebound against another non-playoff bound opponent in the Canucks. I look for them to take full advantage. Note that Los Angeles is 21-14 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that situation. Better still, the Kings are 18-9 after losing three of their last four contests over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Finally, they're 9-1 after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games this season, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average along the way. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-08-23 | Avalanche v. Kings +111 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. It's been a struggle for the Kings over the last couple of games as they sorely miss the likes of Kevin Fiala and Mikey Anderson who are among those sidelined with injuries as we wind down the regular season. The Avalanche are dealing with injuries of their own and off three consecutive victories, I believe they're in for a letdown on Saturday. The Kings are still 25-14 on home ice this season where they've averaged an impressive 3.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that they're 14-7 when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. They're also an impressive 10-2 when coming off consecutive losses this season, averaging 4.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that situation. Take Los Angeles (8*). |