Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-27-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Stars | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Hurricanes got off a miserable start last night and despite rallying they ultimately fell short in a 4-3 overtime loss. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they cool off the surging Stars in Dallas. Note that Carolina checks in allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They've allowed just 1.8 goals per game the last 12 times they've played on the road following an overtime setback, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in allowing 3.3 goals per game after posting consecutive one-goal victories over division opponents (the last eight times that situation has come up). The Stars will have to contend with a Canes squad that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. It's been a true case of 'feast or famine' for the Stars offense for much of the season, noting that they average 3.3 goals per game on home ice but have only managed to go an even 13-13. Look for Carolina to get off to a more favorable start in tonight's game and snap its two-game skid, noting that it hasn't dropped three games in a row since March 16th-20th. Take Carolina (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Blackhawks here as the situation sets up well for them to keep pace with the Lightning on home ice. Note that Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 games following a one-goal victory, allowing 3.8 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Worse still, the Bolts are 1-5 in their last six games off an overtime win, allowing 4.3 goals per game and outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are 10-2 at home off a loss against a division opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. They're also a solid 24-18 in their last 42 games after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, allowing 2.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals (only notable due to the fact we're grabbing the +1.5 here) in that situation. Finally, it's worth mentioning that Chicago has gone 19-8 when playing at home off a loss by two or more goals over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Tampa has taken three straight meetings in this series by multiple goals but this is a tough one-game road trip with the Blackhawks sitting at home well rested following three days off. Take Chicago +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -136 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's not easy to back the Blue Jackets these days but I believe the price is right to get behind them as they look to snap their nine-game losing streak against the Red Wings on Tuesday night. Note that Columbus has gone 7-1 the last eight times it has played at home off seven or more consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Blue Jackets are also 10-2 when returning home following three or more consecutive road games over the last three season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that spot. Detroit, meanwhile, has gone a miserable 6-37 when playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals per game. Columbus has gone a nice job of tightening things up defensively in similar situations in recent years, allowing just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. While the Jackets are reeling, I'm not going to get too down on them as they're off a very tough six-game road trip that saw them face a surging Stars squad, the Panthers and the Lightning - with the latter two serving as two of the league's top teams. Three losses during their current skid came on home ice, but the first was in a revenge spot for the Lightning and the other two certainly could have gone either way as they dropped consecutive one-goal decisions against the Blackhawks. Note that Columbus has won three of its last four meetings with Detroit on home ice. Sitting two points behind the Wings in the standings you have to think that pride kicks in for the Jackets here. Take Columbus (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Ducks v. Kings -154 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Monday. This really has been a lost season for both of these California rivals but it's the Ducks that are in even worse shape down the stretch, having lost four straight games, scoring just four goals in the process and now dealing with a cluster of key injuries. This is an awful spot to begin with for Anaheim as it has gone 0-11 when revenging a loss against an opponent by three goals or more this season, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Kings are in a solid bounce-back spot off Saturday's 4-0 home loss to the Coyotes (we won with the 'under' in that game) as they average 3.4 goals per game and outscore the opposition by 1.4 goals on average when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Los Angeles averages an impressive 3.9 goals per game after losing four of its last five games this season and 3.3 goals per contest after giving up three or more goals in consecutive games here in 2021. While the Kings check in off consecutive losses, they haven't dropped three games in a row since April 2nd to 5th. The Ducks current four-game skid doesn't come close to matching their longest losing streak of the season, which covered a span of nine games from February 15th until March 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Oilers v. Jets +100 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets bandwagon has essentially cleared following a three-game losing streak that started with a 3-0 loss to the same Oilers squad they'll play on Monday night. There's no need to push the panic button as Winnipeg is still firmly entrenched in one of four North Division playoff spots. The time to turn things around is certainly now, however, and I like their chances of doing just that on Monday night. The Oilers will be playing just their fifth game since April 10th and I do think we could see rust become a bit of a factor here. Note that the Jets are in a favorable spot here, having averaged 3.6 goals per game after scoring a goal or less in their previous contest this season and better still, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Winnipeg has gone 23-11 when revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game in that situation. The Jets also check in 21-10 after losing consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. The Oilers are a long-term losing proposition when playing with three or more days rest, having gone 60-97 in their last 157 games in that situation, outscored by 0.3 goals on average. Finally, note that Edmonton averages just 2.2 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games this season. The Oilers have taken four straight meetings and five of seven games in this matchup this season which should only help ratchet up the Jets motivation level for this one. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We've seen three straight relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams with 7, 6 and 8 total goals scored. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Avs and Blues wrap up their three-game set in St. Louis. Note that you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd and 4th to find the last time the Blues posted consecutive 'over' results on home ice. While they certainly haven't been great defensively, they do check in having allowed four goals or less in seven consecutive games, which is encouraging after they had given up five goals or more four times during their previous 12-game stretch. The Avs are obviously in a prime bounce-back spot here but since we're looking at the total, consider that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times Colorado has played on the road off a loss, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 19-9 the last 28 times the Avs have played on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, with those games reaching an average total of 5.3 goals. For their part, the Blues have posted an 18-30 o/u record when playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 5.5 goals. While the last three games here have been high-scoring, the 'under' is actually 26-20 in the last 46 meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. While Colorado's explosive offense is concerning, especially in a foul mood off a loss, it's worth noting that the Avs are still missing one of their top offensive threats in Mikko Rantanen as he deals with Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We were fortunate to get a 'push' with the 'over' in the Devils 4-2 loss in Pittsburgh yesterday. I'll come right back with the same play on Sunday as New Jersey draws a more favorable matchup to possible snap its nine-game losing streak, and certainly to pad its stats offensively. While the Devils have been losing game after game, they haven't had too much difficulty scoring goals, putting up 15 goals in their last five contests. They probably deserved more than two goals in yesterday's affair as they fired 36 shots on goal in the loss. Here, they draw a Flyers squad that has allowed at least four goals in four of its last seven games and gives up an average of 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the Devils have averaged an impressive 4.3 goals per game when playing on the road off three or more straight road losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. New Jersey has all but throw in the towel defensively, allowing at least four goals in six straight and 10 of its last 12 games overall. Not helping matters has been the absence of defensemen P.K. Subban and Ty Smith. The Flyers are well-positioned to bust out here noting they average 3.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons. On the flip side, Philadelphia has given up a whopping 4.3 goals per game when playing its third game in four nights this season with that situation producing 6.8 total goals on average. We won with the 'over' when these two teams last squared off here in Philadelphia on March 23rd as the Devils stole a 4-3 victory. Expect a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
NHL on NBC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams last met on they combined to score 12 games in a wild 7-5 Bruins victory in Boston back on April 3rd. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Boston got caught flat-footed in its last game, suffering a 6-4 loss against the lowly Sabres. Keep in mind, that loss came after the Bruins had easily handled the Sabres in their previous two games. The 'under' has gone 25-10 with the Bruins coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 5.3 goals. The Bruins average 2.9 goals per game in that situation but could be hard-pressed to reach that here against a Pens squad that allows just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Boston could be without top line center Patrice Bergeron for this game after he missed Friday's game in Buffalo due to a lower-body injury. Note that the Pens have given up just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' cashing at an 11-3 clip when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a perfect 5-0 with the Penguins coming off three straight wins this season, with those games totaling an average of just 3.8 total goals. Pittsburgh's offense has been rolling lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of opposition it has faced as it is coming off five straight games against the Devils and Sabres - two of the league's worst teams. This is by no means an ideal spot as they play the second of back-to-back days against a Bruins team coming off a loss, noting that Pittsburgh has been held to two goals or less in three of six meetings in this series this season. Finally, keep in mind that the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings here in Pittsburgh. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Coyotes v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have somewhat inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in six of their last seven games overall but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' as they host the struggling Coyotes on Saturday. Arizona has lost seven of its last eight games and checks in having scored three goals or less in six consecutive games. We do find the Coyotes in a favorable spot here as they've allowed just 1.7 goals per game the last six times they've come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here, with that situation producing just 4.7 total goals on average. There's little reason to expect an offensive breakout from Arizona, however, as it averages just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. Despite its extended 'over' run, Los Angeles has actually been held to two goals or less in seven of its last 10 games overall. The Kings average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season and score only 2.3 goals per game at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons with the 'under' cashing at an 18-8 clip. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 5.0 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six meetings in this series in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the front half of this two-game set on Thursday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as we're once again set up for a high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has already cashed in five of eight meetings in this series this season. The Leafs check in averaging 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Jets are averaging 4.0 goals per game when coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with the 'over' cashing at a 16-5 clip. Those games have totaled an average of 7.0 goals. While the Leafs have been fairly stout defensively on the road this season, where they allow only 2.7 goals per game, they should get everything the Jets have in this one with Winnipeg coming off consecutive losses in which it scored a grand total of three goals, and considering the Jets will be playing just their third game in the last eight nights. Note that Toronto is giving up 4.0 goals per game after losing four of its last five contests over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Devils v. Penguins OVER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third straight game between these two teams here in Pittsburgh with the Penguins winning the last two by 7-6 and 5-1 scores. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Saturday. The Devils are actually set up reasonably well here as they average 3.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a loss in which they allowed four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.5 goals. We also find New Jersey averaging 3.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot averaging a total of 6.7 goals. The Penguins have been dominant on home ice this season, where they average 3.8 goals per game. They check in averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on home ice following an 'under' result over the last two seasons, with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that situation. Finally, note that the 'over' has gone 20-11 with the Devils seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons. New Jersey is simply playing out the string at this point but it is healthy again, up front at least, with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt returning in the last week. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Canadiens v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This is the classic 'playoff-like atmosphere' game where many will look to play the 'under' anticipating a tight-checking affair. Perhaps even moreso when you consider just how low-scoring this series has been with the 'under' cashing in five straight meetings in this series since the Habs skated to a 4-2 victory in their first matchup of the season back in late January. I believe this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair, however, as the Habs shook out of their offensive slump with a 4-3 win over the Oilers two nights ago and the Flames should play a high-energy game in desperation mode off consecutive losses in which they scored just three goals. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-10 with the Flames at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. The Canadiens have allowed 3.1 goals per game off a win this season while the Flames average 3.3 goals per contest after giving up four goals in their last game over the last two seasons. Finally, note that the Flames have given up 3.3 goals per game when playing at home off three or more straight 'under' results over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 6.4 goals. Both teams are in their preferred situation from an offensive standpoint with the Habs averaging 3.1 goals per game on the road and the Flames putting up 3.1 goals per game at home. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Canadiens v. Flames -105 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over Montreal at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Canadiens +1.5 in their outright victory in Edmonton two nights ago. They have a solid hold on the fourth and final playoff spot in the North Division but the Flames have an opportunity to close the gap with three straight home games against the Habs, beginning with this one on Friday night. Note that Montreal is just 6-13 coming off a win this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. The Habs are 2-8 the last 10 times they've come off a one-goal win over a division opponent, as is the case here, averaging just 2.2 goals per game and outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Flames check in 28-15 in their last 43 games after giving up four goals or more in their last contest, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. While Montreal will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, the Flames will be taking to the ice for just the third time over that same stretch. Having dropped their last two, including a 2-1 setback against these same Canadiens one week ago tonight, this is a virtual must-win for Calgary and it should be confident having taken four of the previous six meetings in this series this season. Take Calgary (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Flyers v. Rangers -154 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Flyers took the front half of this back-to-back set in New York by a 3-2 score last night, marking their fifth win in their last six tries here at MSG. The Rangers were in a clear hangover spot there after suffering a 6-1 beatdown against the rival Islanders two nights earlier. Here, I look for New York to respond favorably, noting that Philadelphia is 0-6 when coming off a one-goal road loss this season, outscored by a whopping average margin of 4.1 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 19-9 in their last 27 games following a home loss, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals per game in that spot over the last two seasons. Philadelphia has now scored three goals or less in 12 straight games and when you consider it has allowed 4.0 goals per game when coming off a win this season, this is by no means an ideal situation on Friday night. The Rangers have been held to three goals in their last two contests but should bounce back here, noting they average 3.5 goals per game when playing with double-revenge on home ice over the last two seasons. The last time the Rangers lost consecutive games against the Flyers - the situation they're in tonight - they responded with a 9-0 victory here in Manhattan. Take New York (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Senators v. Canucks -131 | 3-0 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Ottawa at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. While the odds are still slim, the Canucks do still have hopes of reaching the playoffs at this point, thanks in large part to returning from an extended Covid-related absence with consecutive wins over the Leafs earlier this week. Now Vancouver has an opportunity to continue to gain ground on the fourth-place Canadiens and fifth-place Flames as they stare down four straight matchups with the Senators, a team that while playing better lately, they have owned in recent years. The Canucks have actually taken five straight home meetings against the Sens and are a perfect 5-0 against them here this season, most recently skating to consecutive 3-2 victories in Ottawa back in mid-March. Note that the Sens have allowed a whopping 5.3 goals per game and have been outscored by 2.2 goals on average the last 18 times they've played on the road revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent. Also consider that Ottawa is a miserable 1-15 the last 16 times it has come off consecutive games in which it has allowed two goals or less, as is the case here. Finally, the Sens are 5-29 the last 34 times they've played on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. While this is certainly a unique situation with the Canucks playing their third game back following such a long layoff, I believe they're being underpriced here. Note that Vancouver has gone 11-2 the last 13 times it has come off a home win by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that situation. Take Vancouver (9*). |
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04-22-21 | Hurricanes v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes managed to earn a 1-1 split in a two-game set in Tampa and now make the short trip to face the Panthers in another key two-game series. I'm anticipating plenty of offense in Thursday's contest. Note that the Hurricanes have averaged 3.9 goals per game when playing at least their third consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Panthers average 3.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season and even more impressive, average a whopping 5.4 goals per game when at home revenging consecutive losses against an opponent by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that latter situation leading to an average total of 8.3 goals. We also find the Panthers as a strong positive momentum play here, having averaged 3.9 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Finally, it's worth noting that four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Florida have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up well for a high-scoring affair as the Leafs and Jets are both in bounce-back mode on Thursday night. Toronto is coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the Canucks, who were coming off a long layoff due to a Covid outbreak within the team. We do find the Leafs in good position to rebound here, noting that they average 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons. They also average an identical 3.8 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 7.3 total goals on average. The Jets are coming off a 3-0 shutout loss on home ice against Edmonton on Saturday. Perhaps that poor showing was to be expected as they were returning home following a successful five-game road trip on just one day of rest - a situation they had previously struggled in this season. Here, we note that the Jets average 4.0 goals per game following a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Winnipeg has been a terrific bounce-back team this season, averaging 3.9 goals per game off a loss. Also note that the Jets average a whopping 4.7 goals per game the last seven times they've come off a shutout loss. While the 'under' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg, the 'over' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 matchups in the series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as the Preds skated to a 5-2 victory on home ice two nights ago in Nashville. Now the scene shifts to Chicago for the second of three straight meetings between these Central Division foes, noting that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six games between these two here at the United Center. It's been 'feast or famine' for the Preds offense lately as they've scored five goals or more on three occasions over the last two weeks, but outside of that have been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 13 games overall. Note that the Preds average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. They've posted a 1-8 o/u record after scoring four goals or more in their last game this season, averaging just 1.7 goals per game with those contests averaging a total of just 4.1 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Preds playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are giving up just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a loss this season. We're not seeing many true offensive explosions from the Blackhawks this season, noting they haven't scored more than four goals in a game since back on February 28th. They've been held to two goals or less in seven of their last 12 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Ducks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings will be back on the ice following an extended layoff, noting that the 'over' had cashed in their last six games prior to that. That's not a sustainable streak for a Los Angeles squad that averages just 2.7 goals per game and I expect the tide to finally turn against the Ducks on Tuesday. Note that Anaheim has actually held its own defensively on the road this season, allowing just 2.7 goals per contest. The Ducks enter tonight's game off consecutive home losses against the Golden Knights, allowing nine goals in the process. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 with the Ducks having lost two of their last three games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Kings check in sporting an 18-37 o/u record when playing at least their third consecutive home game, with those games reaching an average total of just 4.9 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Kings have played at home on three days or more of rest, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. Finally we'll note that three of the last four meetings between these California rivals in Los Angeles have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. There's not a lot separating these two teams right now, as evidenced by last night's 3-2 overtime win by the Lightning (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). Carolina has an excellent track record bouncing back from one-goal losses away from home, having gone a perfect 7-0 in its last seven opportunities away off a one-goal loss against a division foe, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals per game and allowing just 1.6 goals per contest in that situation. I certainly feel the Hurricanes should be priced considerably higher catching an insurance goal here. Note that Tampa Bay has won just three of its last nine games when coming off a one-goal victory this season, allowing a whopping 3.8 goals per game in that spot. The Lightning are also just 6-14 in their last 20 games following an overtime victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.5 goals per game in that situation. Note that Canes head coach Rod Brind'Amour has done a terrific job of getting his team ready despite playing on short rest, having gone 25-11 the last 36 times they've played their third game in four nights and 25-12 in their last 37 contests on the second of back-to-back nights. The Canes have been right there with the Lightning this season and with a win tonight can even up the season series at four games apiece. I'll grab the insurance goal here as I do feel there's a high probability that we see another game go right down to the wire, just as we did last night. Take Carolina +1.5 goals (9*). |
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames -205 | 4-2 | Loss | -205 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Ottawa at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I don't often back teams in this price range but I'm willing to make an exception on Monday as the situation sets up particularly well for the Flames at home against the Senators. Calgary is coming off a 1-1 split in a two-game set in Montreal but had to come away encouraged after taking two of three games on its road trip that also included a stop in Toronto. The Flames have now won three of their last four games to stay in the playoff hunt in the North Division. In an odd scheduling quirk (even for 2021), the Flames will host the Canadiens - the team they're trying to catch for the fourth and final playoff spot in the North Division - for four consecutive games after a quick trip to Vancouver to face the Canucks (following tonight's game). To keep pace, this game tonight is precisely the type of contest they need to win. I expect them to do just that. Ottawa did Calgary a favor by defeating Montreal 4-0 on Saturday afternoon. That sets the Sens up poorly here, noting that they've gone a miserable 0-12 the last 12 times they've come off a victory by two goals or more against a division opponent, outscored by 1.8 goals per game in that situation. Perhaps worse still, they're 4-29 the last 33 times they've played on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Calgary checks in 9-1 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it scored one goal or less in both games, as is the case here. The Flames have averaged an impressive 4.8 goals per game in that situation, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average. Note that Calgary has taken three of the last four meetings with Ottawa here on home ice. Take Calgary (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Senators and Flames on Monday night after we saw a couple of grind-it-out contests between them in Ottawa back in late March. Those two games totaled just 3 and 4 goals as the Senators swept the two-game set. It's interesting to note that the first of those two contests actually saw a closing total of 6.5 goals. We've already seen the two previous matchups between the Sens and Flames in Calgary produce 10 and 7 goals this season and I expect to see plenty of offense on display on Monday as well. Note that Calgary averages a whopping 4.8 goals per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it was held to one goal or less, as is the case here as I noted above. That situation has produced an average total of 7.4 goals. Meanwhile, the Sens have allowed 4.7 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing 7.0 total goals on average. Of course, Ottawa checks in allowing a miserable 4.5 goals per game on the road this season, despite Saturday's shutout win in Montreal. The Flames are back home where they've been considerably better offensively this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game with their contests here totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Stars are coming off a rare offensive outburst last time out, recording a second straight win over the reeling Blue Jackets and scoring five goals in the process. While Dallas does average 3.3 goals per game here on home ice it's largely been a case of 'feast or famine'. Here, the Stars offense is set up rather poorly, having averaged just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home off two or more consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 9-2 in that situation, totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. The Red Wings average just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season and have seen the 'under' go 13-2 when seeking revenge for a loss by three goals or more this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.6 goals as well. Finally, it's worth noting that Dallas averages a miserable 1.8 goals per game when coming off two wins in its last three games this season with that spot resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The 'under' has cashed in four of the last seven meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The Flyers are coming off a high-scoring game yesterday as they allowed five goals or more for the third time in their last four games in a 6-3 loss to the Capitals. Note that Philadelphia has allowed just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons and faces an Islanders squad that has been held to three goals or less in seven straight games. Also note that the Flyers have allowed just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Isles check in off consecutive losses to the Bruins and are set up in an interesting situation here as they've posted an 0-6 o/u mark the last six times they've played on the road off a shutout loss, with those contests averaging just 2.7 total goals. The 'under' is also 6-0 when New York comes off a loss by three goals in its last game this season, with those games producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. Going back further, the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a road loss by three goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 4.5 goals. This series started off high-scoring this season with three of the first four meetings totaling exactly seven goals. Since then, we've seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 with all three contests totaling five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo +1.5 goals over Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. While Buffalo remains an NHL doormat this season it has certainly played better hockey lately, going 5-5 over its last 10 games despite suffering a narrow 3-2 loss against the Penguins yesterday. If you factor in the +1.5 puck-line, the Sabres check in 11-1 over their last 12 games. While the Pens have been playing well, and will be looking for their fifth straight road win today, this spot doesn't set up particularly well, noting that they average just 2.4 goals per game and have been outscored by 0.6 goals on average when playing on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. The Sabres have actually gone 5-1 when coming off a one-goal loss at home this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1.8 goals per game in that spot. Take Buffalo +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Rangers v. Devils UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We've missed with the Devils on the puck-line in the last two games, just falling short yesterday with the Rangers tacking on a couple of last minute empty net goals. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to Newark for Sunday's fourth consecutive game between these two teams. Note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Devils playing with double-revenge this season, with those contests totaling just 4.6 goals on average. Better still, the 'under' is 6-0 with the Devils revenging consecutive losses against an opponent in which they allowed three goals or more, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 3.9 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off three straight games scoring three goals or more with that spot totaling an average of only 4.8 goals. The 'under' is 15-7-1 when the Rangers play on the road this season, with their games totaling an average of 5.5 goals. Take the under (9*). |
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04-17-21 | Oilers v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. With the 'over' having cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg and the Oilers itching to get back on the ice following an extended layoff, I'm expecting a high-scoring game on Saturday night. Note that Edmonton will be playing for the first time in a week due to Covid-related postponements against the Canucks. The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Oilers have played on three or more days' rest over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 9.0 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets check in averaging 3.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here. When we last saw Edmonton play, it suffered a 5-0 loss at the hands of rival Calgary last Saturday. That actually sets up the Oilers quite well here as they average 3.7 goals per game after allowing five goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. The 'under' has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings in this series but all three of those games were played in Edmonton. As I mentioned at the top, this has been a considerably higher-scoring matchup in games played in Winnipeg recently with two meetings here this season totaling 7 and 10 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-6 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with this same play two nights ago as the Rangers jumped out in front early (they grabbed a 1-0 lead 47 seconds into the game) and the Devils were never able to recover in a 4-0 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday, however, as these two teams go head-to-head in the second of three straight matchups. As I noted in my analysis on Thursday, the Devils are still a winning team on the road this season having gone 10-9, outscored by just 0.2 goals per game along the way. Note they've gone 8-2 when playing on the road following consecutive losses against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals per game in that spot. They also check in 9-3 on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 3-9 coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-7 when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals per game on average. We'll grab the insurance goal here as the price warrants such a play. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in Vegas' 6-2 win in Los Angeles two nights ago as the Kings long 'over' streak remained intact. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Golden Knights continue their California road trip in Anaheim on Friday night. The Ducks are coming off consecutive four-goal outbursts in victories over the Sharks in San Jose. That sets them up poorly here, however, noting that they've averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Anaheim here at home this season, where it averages just 1.9 goals per game. The Golden Knights average 3.1 goals per game on the road but check in averaging just 2.2 goals per game when playing their third game in five days over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.7 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 14-5 clip. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-9 with the Knights playing on the road following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Ducks have posted an 0-6 o/u mark when at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. I'll also point out that three of the last five meetings here in Anaheim stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks are coming off consecutive 4-3 wins in Columbus while the Red Wings check in off back-to-back surprising victories in Carolina. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair, noting that the Blackhawks average just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season while Detroit has managed only 2.3 goals per game here at Little Caesar's Arena. It's also worth noting that three of the last four meetings in this series in Detroit have stayed 'under' the total. The Red Wings check in sporting a 2-12 o/u mark when coming off a win this season, with those games averaging a total of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 6-0 with the Red Wings playing on home ice off a win by two goals or more with that situation producing 4.6 total goals on average. Finally, the 'under' is 8-1 with the Wings revenging a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that spot averaging a total of 4.7 goals. For Chicago's part, it has posted a 2-9 o/u record when playing on the road off a one-goal win away from home over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average of 4.6 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With the Hurricanes coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the lowly Red Wings I expect to see them tighten things up against the surging Predators on Thursday, noting that Carolina has allowed just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. Nashville checks in with the 'under' having gone 8-1 when playing on the road off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 3.6 total goals. For its part, Carolina has posted a 1-10 o/u record when playing at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.9 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.4 goals. Also note that the 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these two teams in Carolina. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NHL East Division Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have posted some big wins lately that give off the impression that they're playing better than they actually are. The fact is, New York hasn't won consecutive games since March 30th and April 1st. New Jersey has somewhat surprisingly been a much better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 10-8 record in enemy territory while averaging 3.1 goals per game. Here, the Devils are set up well having gone a perfect 4-0 when playing on the road off three straight home losses, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.8 goals per game in that situation (yes, I know, small sample size). We've also seen the Devils go 7-2 when playing on the road after being held to two goals or less in their last two games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a woeful 2-9 when coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that spot. They're 0-8 the last eight times they've come off a shutout victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.9 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of two goals in that spot. The Devils have certainly held their own in this series at MSG in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including taking both matchups in Manhattan this season. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the front half of this two-game set on Monday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Wednesday. The Golden Knights have been a stout defensive team away from home this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game with their road contests totaling an average of only 5.2 goals. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Knights coming off a road win by two goals or more this season, as is the case here following Monday's 4-2 victory. That situation has produced only 3.1 total goals on average. For their part, the Kings have seen the 'under' go 29-17 when playing on home ice after losing two of their last three games overall, as is the case here. They've averaged just 2.3 goals per game in that spot and have generally been subpar offensively here at home all season, averaging 2.8 goals per game. On the flip side, we have seen the Kings tighten things up defensively in similar situations, allowing only 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season. It's worth noting that we saw the Knights skate to a 4-2 victory here in Los Angeles back on March 19th before the Kings answered with a low-scoring 3-1 win two nights later. While five of seven meetings this season have gone 'over' the total this season that only serves to give us value with the 'under' here as we're currently being offered a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Flames v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm willing to take a flyer on the fact that the Flames are on a legitimate uptick defensively right now, having allowed just two goals in their last two games after getting torched (no pun intended) for 17 goals in their previous four contests. Note that Calgary checks in averaging just 2.5 goals per game when coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons and averages a miserable 2.2 goals per game on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have seen the 'under' cash in seven straight games when revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.1 goals. For its part, Montreal averages just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons. The last time these two teams met in Montreal the Flames skated to a 2-0 victory on January 30th. The 'under' has gone 3-0-1 in this series this season with the last three meetings totaling four goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Jets -174 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Senators on the puck-line in Monday's outright win over the Jets but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Jets in Wednesday's rematch. It was fairly obvious to me that the Jets might have already thought they had a win in the bag after jumping ahead 2-0 early in Monday's game. But as they've done time and time again this season, the Sens fought back, erasing that deficit in short order before eventually taking over the game in the third period. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Jets turn in a more complete effort as they aim to get back on track before a tougher matchup in Toronto on Thursday. Note that Winnipeg has gone 10-3 when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons, averaging 4.0 goals per game in that situation and outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals per game. The Jets are also 8-1 revenging a loss where they allowed four goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Ottawa checks in 0-11 the last 11 times it has come off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent, outscored by 1.8 goals per game on average in that situation. We've also seen the Sens average just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. While the Jets have dropped two of their last three games against the Senators, they're still 5-2 against them this season and have taken three of the last five meetings here in Ottawa. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with Winnipeg here, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Coyotes v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Minnesota at 2:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Coyotes were on quite a scoring tear prior to hitting a wall in their last two games, scoring just two goals combined in losses against the Golden Knights and Avalanche. This doesn't figure to be a great bounce-back spot as they wrap up a long nine-game road trip that will have taken them to five different cities. Note that the Coyotes have averaged a miserable 1.3 goals per game when playing their eighth game in the last 14 days over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at an 8-1 clip in that situation and those games totaling just 4.0 goals on average. This doesn't figure to be an ideal breakout spot for the 'Yotes offense as they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season and face a Wild squad that allows only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. It's worth noting that Arizona has won just three of its last 30 games when revenging consecutive losses against an opponent by two goals or more, as is the case here, averaging just 1.9 goals per game in the process. It's been an interesting week for the Wild as they had Monday's game against St. Louis postponed due to unrest over a police shooting in the city and now play this rare midweek matinee affair. While Minnesota did score 12 goals in a two-game set against the Avalanche last week, that could be considered an outlier as the Wild have scored three goals or less in 12 of their last 14 games overall. This isn't an ideal spot for the Wild offensively as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game when returning home off a one-goal road loss over the last three seasons. While the first two meetings in this series this season did find their way 'over' the total, the 'under' has now cashed in the last three and five of the last six matchups between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the under (9*). |
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04-13-21 | Panthers -112 v. Stars | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Panthers have suddenly lost three games in a row after taking over the league lead in points with a win back on April 4th. I do look for them to bounce back in the back half of this two-game set in Dallas, however. Note that while the Panthers have been idle in Dallas since suffering a 4-1 loss here on Saturday, the Stars went out on the road and lost in overtime at Nashville on Sunday. If the Panthers are going to be sitting around Dallas for four days they might as well get a win out of it. I like their chances here. Note that Florida has gone 29-15 after giving up four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They also average 4.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. The Stars got off to an incredibly fast start in Saturday's eventual 4-1 win over the Panthers, scoring twice in the game's first two minutes and grabbing a 3-0 first period lead to essentially force Florida away from its gameplan. Here, I look for the Panthers to get the early jump, noting that the Stars have suffered a bit of a hangover effect, averaging a miserable 1.6 goals per game when returning home off a division loss on the road over the last two seasons. The Panthers are giving up just 2.4 goals per game when coming off a loss this season and check in 12-9 on the road. It's been feast or famine for the Stars at home, as they've outscored opponents by 0.6 goals per game but own a disappointing 8-12 record here in Big D. Take Florida (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Kings are inexplicably coming off four consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Vegas' 1-0 victory over Arizona yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that Vegas has averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off a shutout victory over the last two seasons. The Knights haven't been nearly as potent offensively on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 2.9 goals per game in the visitors role with the 'under' cashing at a 10-7-1 clip. Meanwhile, the Kings have seen the 'under' go 19-5 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling just 4.4 goals on average. The 'under' is also 31-16 when Los Angeles comes off a game in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here, with those contests totaling 5.0 goals on average. The last time the Golden Knights were in revenge mode in this series they posted a 4-1 victory back on March 29th, with that game cruising 'under' the total. They're in a similar position here after dropping a 4-2 decision against the Kings on March 31st. Look for another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Jets v. Senators +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row including a two-game sweep in Montreal which culminated with a 5-0 victory on Saturday night. While Winnipeg has owned this series, taking five of six meetings so far this season, the Senators have been right here with the Jets in the last two matchups, winning 2-1 here in Ottawa on February 13th before dropping a 4-3 decision in Winnipeg on April 5th. The Jets are set up poorly here, noting that they've gone just 17-26 after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.3 goals per game in that situation. They've also posted an ugly 3-12 record and average just 2.1 goals per game after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sens have somewhat surprisingly gone 5-1 after allowing six goals or more over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation which presents itself here after Saturday's wild 6-5 loss in Toronto (we won with the 'over' in that game). Also note that the Sens give up just 2.3 goals per game playing at home after losing five or six of their last seven games this season. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Monday night in Ottawa. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 103 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We're going to go the contrarian route with this one given the 'over' has cashed in four of five meetings between these two teams this season, including a wild, high-scoring 7-4 Knights victory in the front half of this two-game set on Friday night. The Coyotes have now seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games as they've uncharacteristically scored 12 goals while giving up 13 over that stretch. Note that Arizona has allowed just 2.0 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season. The Coyotes have averaged 3.8 goals per game themselves in that spot but I wouldn't count on that level of offensive production against a Knights squad that allows just 2.4 goals per game on home ice this season and prior to Friday's contest had given up three goals or less in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Coyotes playing on the road off consecutive games where at least seven goals were scored, as is the case here, with those contests totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Kings v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night even though the scoring did settle down over the game's final two periods. Still, the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings here in San Jose. Note that the Kings have allowed just 2.1 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons. While they've averaged 3.3 goals per game themselves in that situation, they just haven't scored with any consistency on the road this season, averaging just 2.6 goals per game while the Sharks have given up two goals or less in four of their last five contests overall. For San Jose's part, the 'under' has gone 25-15 when it comes off a game where seven goals or more were scored over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Look for a return to 'normal' in this series on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 103 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night with the Blues doing virtually all of the damage in a 9-1 victory. I would count on a repeat performance in tonight's rematch, noting that the Wild have allowed just 2.1 goals per game on average the last 28 times they've come off a loss by five goals or more. The 'under' has gone 13-3 with the Wild coming off consecutive games where seven total goals or more were scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.7 goals on average. The Blues scoring explosion last night could be considered an anomaly as they average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series, including a 2-0 Wild victory in the lone previous meeting this season (prior to last night). Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Lightning -175 v. Predators | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Lightning had been struggling prior to a six-goal outburst in a win over the Blue Jackets on Thursday. Now they head to Nashville where they look to keep hopes of a winning road trip alive against the surging Predators. I like Tampa Bay's chances here as it has taken three of the last four meetings in Nashville and will be out for revenge after suffering a stunning 4-1 loss against the Preds on home ice back on March 15th. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 34-11 after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals per game in that situation. They're a terrific positive momentum play here as they've gone 36-11 after posting a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Preds check in just 4-13 coming off consecutive road wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 goal per game along the way. They've won just twice in their last 10 home games when coming off three straight wins, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Senators v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 5-6 | Win | 108 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This game has true high-scoring potential as the Senators head to Toronto to face the rival Maple Leafs on Saturday. We actually won with the 'under' in the Sens last game - a 3-2 loss to the Oilers on Thursday. Here, Ottawa is in a tough spot as it hits the road, where it has allowed a ridiculous 4.6 goals per game this season. Worse still, the Sens give up 5.2 goals per game when on the road revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 8.2 goals. There's reason to be confident in the Sens offense here though as well as Toronto has given up 3.8 goals per game when playing at home off a one-goal victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those games producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Five of the last seven meetings between these two Ontario rivals in Toronto have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Bruins v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Bruins last game - a 4-2 victory in Washington on Thursday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Boston faces Philadelphia for the third time in the last week. Note that the Flyers are coming off a 3-2 shootout loss against the Islanders on Thursday and have now been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 11 games overall. On a positive note, we have seen Philadelphia's leaky defense and goaltending show some signs of improvement, allowing just 10 goals in regulation time over its last four games. Note that the 'under' is 24-10 when the Bruins come off consecutive 'over' result over the last three seasons with those contests totaling 5.3 goals on average. Better still, the 'under' is 23-12 when the Bruins play on the road off a division win over the last two seasons with those games reaching just 5.0 total goals. This has generally been a high-scoring series but I'll go the contrarian route here in this matinee affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Kings +119 v. Sharks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Friday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Kings after they snapped a three-game losing streak with a come-from-behind win over the Coyotes on home ice two nights ago. While they were able to get back on track, the Sharks have had to sit on an ugly 5-1 home loss against the lowly Ducks since suffering that setback on Tuesday night. San Jose is now just 7-9 on home ice this season, where it allows 3.4 goals per game. Note that the Kings are in a favorable spot here, as they average 4.0 goals per game after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. Los Angeles has averaged 3.3 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals when revenging a one-goal loss this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Sharks average just 2.1 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home after allowing five goals or more in their last contest. San Jose has owned this series this season, taking five of six meetings so far, but I look for the Kings to get one back in the front half of this two-game set tonight. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in the Coyotes most recent game - a 4-3 loss to the Kings on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as I expect to see things to return to 'normal' after an extended stretch of Arizona 'over' results. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Coyotes on the road after consecutive games that totaled seven goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. While the 'Yotes have scored 18 goals over the first five games of this long road trip, they still average just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Vegas checks in off a 3-1 loss against the slumping Blues in St. Louis two nights ago. Note that the Golden Knights have allowed just 1.7 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Of course, they've been terrific defensively at home this season, giving up just 2.3 goals per game. Conversely, the Knights have scored more than two goals just once in their last five contests. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last seven games overall. We've also seen the 'under' go 9-7 in the last 16 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Capitals are back home after dropping three of five games on the road and are coming off a 1-0 setback against the Islanders two nights ago. Here, they're set up well for a high-scoring result, noting that they average 4.3 goals per game when returning home off at least four straight games on the road, with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 7-0 clip in that situation over the last three seasons. Those contests totaled an average of 7.9 goals. The Bruins have scored at least four goals in three of their last five games and face a Caps squad that has allowed 3.6 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent as a road favorite over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 18-6 in that situation with an average total goals scored of 7.1. Three of the last five meetings between these two teams here in Washington have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (9*). |
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04-08-21 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw six total goals scored between these two teams last night with the Oilers scoring a couple of goals late including an empty-netter with just 1.5 seconds remaining in the third period. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair, noting that the 'under' has gone 8-1 this season when the Oilers play at home after losing four or five of their last six games, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 20-10 when the Senators play at home after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 5.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Oilers average just 2.3 goals per game coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. Edmonton checks in having allowed just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Take the under (9*). |
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04-08-21 | Penguins +109 v. Rangers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 109 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I think we're dealing with a bit of an overreaction here following the Rangers 8-4 thrashing of the Penguins on Tuesday night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Pittsburgh has now dropped back-to-back games, in fact, allowing a whopping 15 goals in the process. I don't think it's time to hit the panic button, however, noting that prior to those two contests the Pens had held 15 straight opponents to three goals or less. Pittsburgh is set up well here on Thursday, noting that it has gone a perfect 7-0 when coming off consecutive division losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 goals per game in that situation. The Pens are also 24-10 after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Finally, we've seen Pittsburgh post a 14-4 record when revenging a loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 3-11 in their last 14 games played at home following a win over a division opponent. While the Blueshirts took Tuesday's matchup in blowout fashion, the Pens have held their own here at MSG, splitting the last six meetings. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Coyotes skated to a 5-2 victory in the front half of this two-game set in Los Angeles on Monday night. I look for things to return to 'normal' on Wednesday, however, in terms of offensive production. Note that Arizona averages just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Here, it faces a Kings squad that has allowed just 1.7 goals per game when coming off three consecutive losses on home ice over the last three seasons. Also note that the Coyotes average just 2.2 goals per game when playing on the road off a road win over the last three seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-7 clip with an average total of just 5.0 goals in that situation. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series with the 'under' cashing in four of the last five meetings here at Staples Center. Take the under (9*). |
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04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -114 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Kings in a game that was never close against the Coyotes on Monday. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Los Angeles here as it aims to snap its three-game skid on home ice. While the Coyotes have reeled off three straight road wins, this will be their fifth game in the last eight nights and it's certainly worth noting that they have been outscored by 0.4 goals per game on the road this season. The Kings average 4.0 goals per game after giving up three goals or more in three straight games this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that situation. They've also gone 5-1 off three or more straight home losses over the last three seasons, giving up just 1.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average of 1.6 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Arizona checks in a miserable 26-63 the last 89 times it has come off consecutive games in which it allowed two goals or less, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Avalanche v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams on Monday night as the Avalanche stayed hot with a 5-4 victory. The 'over' has now cashed in four straight meetings in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. The Avs have posted a 4-12 o/u record when playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-6 with the Wild playing at home following an 'over' result over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.9 goals on average. I'll also point out that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Wild playing with triple-revenge on home ice over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average total of only 3.9 goals. The 'under' has cashed in 10 of Minnesota's 17 home games this season with the Wild allowing only 2.1 goals per game. This is certainly a tough challenge based on how well the Avs have been playing, but I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Leafs are coming off a relatively high-scoring two-game set in Calgary on Sunday and Monday, with 14 total goals scored in those two contests. I look for the scoring to settle down on Wednesday, however, as they return home to host the rival Canadiens. Note that Toronto has now allowed three goals or less in eight straight games. The 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Leafs coming off a win by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Toronto has been solid defensively at home this season, giving up just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have posted a 3-12 o/u record when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they gave up five goals or more over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. Montreal isn't set up particularly well offensively here, even as it has scored 3.3 goals on the road this season, noting that it averages just 2.5 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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04-07-21 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Note the early start time for this Wednesday matchup. The Senators are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, splitting games in Montreal and Winnipeg. We've seen a considerable home-road dichotomy when it comes to the Sens this season as they've posted a 7-12 o/u record here on home ice, with those games totaling just 5.6 goals on average. While Ottawa is thought of as one of the league's worst defensive teams, it has actually held its own here in Kanata, allowing just 2.8 goals per game. The Sens do of course have their issues between the pipes, with Marcus Hogberg potentially returning on Wednesday, following a conditioning stint. Keep in mind, the Oilers high-octane offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up lately, failing to score more than three goals in a game since potting four at home against the Jets back on March 20th. The 'under' has gone 10-7-1 in Edmonton road games this season and it has certainly held its own defensively in those games, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. Note that the Sens have posted a 1-9 o/u mark when playing at home after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here today. The 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series but both of those games were played in Edmonton. In their last two matchups here in Ottawa, the 'under' has cashed on both occasions. Take the under (9*). |
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04-06-21 | Predators v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Wings are coming off a stunning 5-1 win over the Lightning in Tampa on Sunday afternoon but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as they return home to host the Predators on Tuesday. The Predators are hot right now, winners of seven of their last eight games overall. Note, however, that they've scored more than three goals just once over their last seven contests, that coming in a seven-goal outburst against these same Red Wings back on March 25th. The Preds aren't set up particularly well here, noting that they average just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 12-3 in that situation with an average total of just 4.1 goals. For their part, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 10-2-1 off a win this season, with those games averaging a total of 4.8 goals. For all of its struggles, Detroit has actually been fairly tough in its own end here at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. The problem has been the Wings lacking offense as it scores just 2.4 goals per game here at Little Caesar's Arena. With both teams missing a number of key cogs up front due to injury, I'll call for a reasonably low-event game on Tuesday night in the Motor City. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive low-scoring games in Buffalo, grabbing three of a total of four points in the process as they continue to fight to reach the postseason. Perhaps we can chalk up the fact that they managed to score only four goals in regulation time in those two games in Buffalo to New York's youth. It would have certainly been easy for the Rangers to overlook the lowly Sabres, especially coming off a hard-fought two-game split against the Capitals in which New York scored nine goals. Here, I look for the Rangers offense to get back on track at home, where they've averaged 3.3 goals per game this season, and square off against a Penguins squad that has given up a less than impressive 3.2 goals per game on the road. Perhaps not surprisingly, three of the last five meetings between these two teams in New York have gone 'over' the total. The Pens would like to tighten things up after suffering a wild 7-5 loss against the Bruins in Boston on Saturday. However, the trends don't point to that as they've posted a 10-2 o/u record when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Also note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Penguins come off a road loss by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of 7.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers average 3.5 goals per game off a loss over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -120 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the Kings on Saturday as they fell by a 3-2 score against the Sharks. That marked their second straight loss after splitting a two-game set in Las Vegas. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, as Los Angeles stays at home to host the Coyotes, who are off an overtime win Anaheim last night. That sets up Arizona poorly as it checks in 2-11 off a road win by one goal over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. The Kings check in outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. In the long-term picture, the 'Yotes have posted a miserable 25-63 record after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games, outscored by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. While Arizona has won six of its last eight games overall, four of those victories came against losing opponents in the Sharks and Ducks and the other came in a shootout against the Avalanche (with Colorado starting its third-string goaltender). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Anaheim at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Coyotes took the front half of this two-game set in Anaheim by a 4-2 score on Friday night but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair in Sunday's rematch. Note that the Coyotes average just 2.3 goals per game when playing on the road after notching a road victory in which they scored four goals or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 4.6 goals. The 'under' has cashed at a perfect 7-0 clip in that situation. Meanwhile, the Ducks average a miserable 1.6 goals per game when revenging a home loss by two goals or more this season. They've also allowed a whopping 4.1 goals in that situation but I do expect them to tighten things up tonight and Arizona is unlikely to turn in another high-scoring effort, noting it averages just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Finally, Anaheim has posted a 4-12 o/u record after losing two of its last three games this season with those contests totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Leafs are coming off back-to-back low-scoring victories in Winnipeg to open this road trip but I expect a different story to unfold in Calgary on Sunday. Note that Toronto averages 3.1 goals per game on the road this season so the fact that it scored just four goals in regulation time in those two games in Winnipeg could be considered an anomaly. Here, they should find the going a little easier against a Flames squad that isn't getting good goaltending right now and allows 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 16-6 when the Leafs come off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games averaging 6.8 total goals. The Leafs are averaging 3.7 goals per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results this season. Meanwhile, the Flames have seen the 'over' go 22-9 when playing at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons with those contests averaging 7.3 total goals. Two of the last three meetings in this series in Calgary have gone 'over' the total including a 4-3 Leafs victory here back on January 26th. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -165 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jackets are a mess right now, having lost six of their last seven games, and don't figure to get back in the win column against the streaking Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Florida has won five consecutive games and certainly wants to keep that streak intact before heading out on the road on its longest trip of the season (six games). Florida is 13-7 on home ice this season, where it averages 3.1 goals per game. Meanwhile, Columbus has gone 7-13 on the road, averaging a less than impressive 2.1 goals per contest. Note that the Blue Jackets average just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive losses this season. I don't feel they can keep up with a Panthers squad that averages 3.7 goals per game following a division win over the last two seasons, noting that Florida welcomed back Sasha Barkov and Patric Hornqvist last night with the pair chipping in two assists and seven combined shots on goal in Florida's 5-2 victory. Take Florida (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Sharks v. Kings -117 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Jose at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings returned home and couldn't keep the positive momentum building in a 3-0 loss to the Sharks last night. I do look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however. Note that Los Angeles has gone 9-3 off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks have given up 3.5 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. Keep in mind, last night's shutout performance was an anomaly for San Jose on the road this season, where it has given up 3.3 goals per game. By contrast, the Kings are allowing just 2.7 goals per game on home ice, and allow only 2.3 goals per game when at home revenging a loss against an opponent by two or more goals over the last two seasons. The Sharks are 4-1 against the Kings this season but I look for Los Angeles to get one back tonight. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Blackhawks v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Nashville at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw two low-scoring games between these two teams in Chicago last weekend but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Nashville on Saturday afternoon. The Blackhawks fell just short against Carolina on Thursday (we won with the Hurricanes), scoring three goals in the process. They now fall into a situation that has seen the 'over' cash at a 33-17 clip when they play on the road following a loss over the last three seasons, with those games averaging 6.8 total goals. Meanwhile, the Preds haven't posted an 'over' result since March 25th. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 when Nashville comes off at least three consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling 7.3 goals on average. I should also point out that the Blackhawks average 4.1 goals per game when seeking revenge for three straight losses against an opponent, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.6 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Penguins v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair in the front half of this two-game set in Boston on Thursday night and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday afternoon. Note that Bruins home games are averaging just 5.1 total goals this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-5 clip. The 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Penguins allowing just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win by two goals ore more over a division opponent in their last game over the lats two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. On the flip side, the Bruins have given up just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home after scoring just one goal in their previous contest over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series played here in Boston and all five previous matchups this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 3-0 | Win | 108 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We got burned by two goals in the final 12 seconds to spoil our 'under' play in the Sharks most recent game - a 4-2 victory over the Wild on Wednesday night. Undeterred, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as San Jose heads out on the road to face the rival Kings. Los Angeles is coming off a somewhat surprising 4-2 win in Las Vegas on Wednesday. That sets up the Kings rather poorly here, however, noting that they average just 2.2 goals per game when coming off a win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed at a 25-11 clip in that situation, with an average total of just 5.0 goals scored. Better still, the 'under' is 12-2 when the Kings play at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average of just 3.7 total goals. Also note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Los Angeles plays with revenge for a road loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. San Jose averages only 2.2 goals per game following an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Finally, we've seen the 'under' cash in six of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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04-02-21 | Blues v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This might be one of our last opportunities to play 'over' 5.5 goals in a game involving the Avs for a while given the way they've been performing lately. There's little reason to expect the Blues to knock them off stride here, noting that St. Louis has allowed 4.2 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored five goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Colorado is an excellent positive momentum play here having averaged a whopping 5.1 goals per game after winning its last two games by two goals or more this season, with that situation producing 7.4 total goals on average. The Avs are averaging an impressive 4.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Interestingly, St. Louis has been a better offensive team on the road than at home, scoring 3.1 goals per game. The Blues check in having scored just four goals combined over their last four games but have averaged a solid 3.3 goals per game when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, and I wouldn't expect this offense to stay down for too long. Take the over (9*). |
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04-02-21 | Flames v. Oilers -139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers are in a nice bounce-back spot at home on Friday night as they look to respond following a 4-0 loss in Montreal on Tuesday. Note that Edmonton is 26-12 after giving up four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals per game in that spot. The Oilers are also 21-10 when coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Calgary checks in a woeful 2-9 after losing a home game by three goals or more over the last three seasons, allowing 3.4 goals per game in that situation. The Flames have of course had a miserable time scoring with any consistency this season, particularly on the road where they average just 2.1 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 3.5 goals per game on home ice and off a shutout loss will be eager to bounce back here at home before heading back on the road for three games in Montreal and Ottawa. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Hurricanes -158 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for Carolina as it look to bounce back following a 2-1 loss to the Blackhawks here two nights ago. The Canes remain a solid road team this season, having gone 12-7, allowing just 2.7 goals per game in the process. Chicago is in a tough spot here, having gone a miserable 5-15 following a home win against a division opponent over the last three seasons, allowing 3.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canes have allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. Carolina averages north of three goals per game on the road this season and is set up well here, noting that it averages exactly 3.0 goals per game after being held to a goal or less in its previous contest over the last three seasons, as is the case here. The Canes got a boost with the return of Victor Trocheck on Tuesday. He chipped in an assist, played more than 18 minutes and fired six shots on goal in the loss. Take Carolina (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a tightly-contested, low-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago at the United Center but I look for a much different story to unfold on Thursday. The Canes offense got a boost with the return of Victor Trocheck on Tuesday and he wasted no time contributing, chipping in with an assist on their lone goal in over 18 minutes played while also firing six shots on goal. Look for the Canes offense to get rewarded here on Thursday as they face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed a whopping 3.9 goals per game when playing at home after a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, with that situation producing 7.7 total goals on average with the 'over' cashing at a 12-3 clip. The 'over' has gone 25-13 when the Blackhawks play at home off a win over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina averages 3.1 goals per game on the road this season and prior to Tuesday's game had been playing well, scoring 11 goals during a three-game winning streak. Note that Tuesday's 'under' result was the first of its kind in this series this season with the previous three meetings totaling 7, 10 and 8 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Wild v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the front half of this two-game set between the Wild and Sharks on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Wednesday. Minnesota has now been held to three goals or less in seven consecutive games and doesn't figure to break out of that scoring slump here, noting that it averages just 2.3 goals per game when revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Likewise, the 'under' is 35-21 and the Wild average 2.3 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 5.1 goals. Despite Monday's four-goal outburst, the Sharks are still averaging just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. They average just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home off a game where seven or more goals were scored over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avalanche have served 'over' bettors very well lately, posting a 7-1 o/u record over their last eight games. Likewise, the Coyotes have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests overall. I look for a reversal of sorts here, however, as the Avs look for some revenge for a 5-4 loss in Arizona on March 23rd. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado revenges a road loss against an opponent this season, giving up just 1.2 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.0 goals scored. We've also seen the Avs allow just 2.0 goals per game when coming off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Arizona has proven to be a streaky team offensively, noting it averages just 2.0 goals per game following an 'under' result this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 34-17 when the Coyotes follow a game where four total goals or less were scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo +1.5 goals over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's certainly not easy to back the Sabres these days and after Monday's embarrassing 3-0 blown lead (which eventually led to a 4-3 overtime loss) Buffalo-backers will be few and far between on Wednesday night. I'll grab the Sabres on the puck-line here, however, noting that they don't look like a team that's quit, holding third period leads in each of their last two games. In fact, Buffalo has only been outscored in two of its last six periods of hockey. Its last two games mark the first time it has gone without losing a game by multiple goals in a two-game stretch over the course of its entire 18-game skid. Let's face it, tonight's opponent the Philadelphia Flyers have their own issues right now. While they do enter this one off consecutive wins, you would have to go all the way back to February 28th to find the last time they won a game by two goals or more (right here in Buffalo oddly enough). Their two-game winning streak marks their longest since notching three consecutive wins from February 24th-28th. Note that the Flyers are have allowed 4.3 goals per game off a one-goal loss this season, outscored by 1.7 goals per game in that situation. They've also allowed a whopping 4.8 goals per game following a road game where both teams scored three goals or more over the last two seasons. The Sabres have been outscored by just 0.1 goals per game following a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. We certainly won't be taking many shots with the Sabres but in this spot, I believe a play is warranted. Take Buffalo +1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-30-21 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jackets simply aren't scoring right now, managing three goals or less in each of their last seven games and one goal or less in three of their last four. While the Lightning are known for their offense, they've been even sharper defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.0 goals per game on the season. Tampa Bay has reason to tighten things up here as it returns home off consecutive 4-3 losses in Dallas and Carolina. The loss in Carolina was particularly frustrating as it grabbed an early 2-0 lead before a disastrous second period that saw it give up three unanswered goals. While Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed four goals in back-to-back games that is largely due to Tampa giving up 40+ shots in those two contests. I'm confident we'll see a strong bounce-back performance from Vasilevskiy and the Lightning here. Note that Columbus has allowed just 1.6 goals per game after losing two or more games in a row on the road over the last three seasons, posting a 2-10 o/u record in that spot. Conversely, the Blue Jackets average just 2.1 goals per game when playing a third consecutive game on the road over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'under' going 21-6 in that situation with an average of just 4.4 total goals scored. The Lightning average just 2.8 goals per game off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, which is significant considering they average 3.7 goals per game overall this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-21 | Capitals v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams combined to score nine goals thanks to a wild third period on Sunday in Washington (the Capitals led the game 3-0 entering the third period before hanging on for a 5-4 win). I expect a lower-scoring affair in Tuesday night's rematch in Manhattan. The Caps have now scored four goals or more in three straight games but should face a tough challenge keeping that streak alive here, noting that the Rangers have allowed just 2.3 goals on average following a loss this season and have given up just 2.1 goals per game in 14 situations coming off a game where 9+ goals were scored over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, they held the Caps to just three goals combined in splitting a two-game set in Washington a couple of weeks ago. The Capitals will be venturing out on the road for the first time since March 15th. They boosted their scoring average away from home thanks to their last four road games coming against two of the league's worst defensive teams in Philadelphia and Buffalo. Here, they'll face a Rangers squad that allows just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Wild v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs last time out I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Monday night in San Jose. The Wild are coming off a perfect 3-0 homestand that also saw the 'under' go a perfect 3-0. They shut out the Blues 2-0 the last time they took the ice on Thursday. Note that the road hasn't been quite as kind to Minnesota this season as it has allowed 3.0 goals per game in a visitors role. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Wild come off six or seven wins in their last eight games this season, allowing a whopping 4.5 goals per game in that spot with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. The Sharks couldn't keep the positive momentum building off consecutive home wins over the rival Kings, dropping back-to-back games in Arizona on Friday and Saturday. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in Saturday's 4-0 drubbing but I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here. Note that San Jose is averaging 3.4 goals per game following an 'under' result over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. Playing at home off a shutout loss, the Sharks have averaged 3.3 goals per game in the long-term picture, with the 'over' cashing at a 41-21 clip. The three previous meetings between these two teams this season have averaged 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Jets +102 v. Flames | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets have been a tremendous bounce-back team all season long and after cashing with the Flames in Saturday night's virtual must-win game, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Winnipeg in Monday's finale of a three-game set here in Calgary. Winnipeg remains a winning team on the road this season, having gone 11-8, outscoring opponents by 0.3 goals per game. While the Jets are a solid 9-3 when revenging a loss of any kind this season, they're even better revenging a loss where they allowed four goals or more, going 7-1, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Flames are a miserable 1-7 after scoring four or more goals in a game this season, outscored by 2.0 goals per game while managing just 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Also note that Calgary has allowed 3.8 goals per game when playing at home off a division win over the last three seasons. I mentioned that Saturday's game was a virtual must-win for Calgary on the heels of four straight losses. The fact that the Flames managed to win that game only leaves them in a clear letdown spot against what I would consider a superior Jets squad that will be motivated to wrap up their seven-game road trip with a winning record. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Islanders v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While the Islanders have managed to take four of a possible six points on their current road trip, head coach Barry Trotz can't be happy with his team's performance over the last two games as they've given up a whopping nine goals, including a 6-3 loss to these same Penguins on Saturday. That sets us up well to play the 'under' in Monday's rematch, noting that the 'under' is 11-3 when the Isles play on the road revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those games totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Also note that New York has allowed just 1.6 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with the 'under' going 9-2 in that spot and those contests totaling an average of just 4.1 goals. For their part, the Pens have posted an 0-6 o/u record when playing at home off three straight wins by multiple goals, as is the case here. That situation, albeit with a small sample size, has produced an average of just 4.1 total goals. Finally, the Isles check in having given up a minuscule 0.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season. That situation has only come up six times with the 'under' going a perfect 6-0. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The front half of this two-game set found its way 'over' the total no Saturday night as the Leafs delivered a 4-3 victory on home ice. I see value with the 'under' on Monday, however. While both teams are known for their offenses, both have also proven capable defensively, with Edmonton allowing just 2.7 goals per game on the road and Toronto giving up 2.6 goals per game on home ice. Note that the 'under' has gone 13-4 when the Oilers play on the road off a road game where both teams scored at least three goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 5.3 goals. The 'under' has also gone 50-29 when the Oilers come off a game where there were seven or more goals scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 5.8 goals. Edmonton has generally been a solid bounce-back play on the road, giving up just 2.3 goals per game when playing away from home off a loss over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Toronto averages only 2.3 goals per game coming off a one-goal win at home over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Panthers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Panthers last night as they pulled out an overtime victory to snap their three-game losing streak. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I anticipate a low-scoring affair in Big D. While Florida does average an impressive 3.6 goals per game on the road this season it remains undermanned with Sasha Barkov unlikely to return to the lineup on Sunday and Patric Hornqvist sidelined for an extended period. Note that the Stars have given up just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. On the flip side, the Stars average just 2.1 goals per game following consecutive contests where both teams scored three or more goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Prior to last night's contest, the first three meetings between these two teams this season all produced five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Jets v. Flames -125 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary over Winnipeg at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flames fell short again last night, falling by a 3-2 score against the Jets - their fourth consecutive loss. Calgary did manage to score two goals in the third period which is at least a positive for them to hang its hat on entering Saturday's rematch with Winnipeg. While the Flames are down right now, I'm not about to write them off, especially here on home ice where they're still a winning team on the season and average north of three goals per game. They've also still taken 13 of the last 17 meetings with the Jets here in Calgary. With Winnipeg having taken four of six meetings this season, there's even more motivation for the Flames to get back on track on Saturday. Take Calgary (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Panthers +100 v. Stars | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Panthers are reeling right now, fresh off three straight losses and dealing with a couple of key injuries to Sasha Barkov and Patric Hornqvist. With that being said, I do look for them to bounce back on Saturday night as they put a disappointing start to their current road trip behind them with a convincing victory. Florida was competitive in last Sunday's 5-3 loss in Tampa (we won with the Lightning in that game) before getting stymied in consecutive low-scoring losses in Chicago. A change of scenery should be a positive thing as the Panthers head to Dallas on Saturday, where the Stars are just 7-10 on the season and in line for a letdown off a come-from-behind win over the first-place Lightning two nights ago. Note that the Panthers average a whopping 5.0 goals per game and outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Florida (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames ran into a wall offensively on their most recent road trip, scoring just two goals over their last three games in Toronto and Ottawa after opening the trip with a four-goal outburst against the Leafs. At the face of it, scoring two goals in two games against the Senators looks awful. However, the Sens have been doing a much better job of keeping the puck out of their net, clearly placing a major emphasis on playing sound defense during their homestand. Just ask the Leafs, who scored just two goals in regulation time before escaping with an overtime win in Ottawa last night. Now Calgary finally returns home, where it averages 3.3 goals per game this season. It catches the Jets in a favorable situation here, noting that Winnipeg has allowed 3.9 goals per game when coming off a division road win over the last two seasons, with the 'over' going 12-2 in that situation, and those games averaging 7.3 total goals. Winnipeg has also allowed 3.7 goals per game following a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Wednesday's 5-1 win. The Jets have been one of the best offensive teams on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game in enemy territory. Winnipeg averages 3.5 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling just north of six goals on average. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Sharks +105 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on San Jose over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We have a pretty good feel for the Sharks right now, having been involved in three of their last six games, winning on consecutive occasions with them on the puck-line in Las Vegas before cashing a big play on the 'over' in their most recent contest at home against the Kings. Here, I'll back them again as they continue to play reasonably well and push toward a playoff spot in the West Division. Of course, it's going to be an uphill battle as San Jose currently sits seven points back of the fourth-place Blues but does have two games in hand. Tonight's opponent is another team San Jose is currently looking up at in the standings. Arizona checks in off a thrilling 5-4 overtime win over the Avalanche on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Colorado elected to go with Jonas Johansson in goal for that game - he was an acquisition from the Sabres last week and has been generally awful this season. Now the Coyotes are in a tough spot having gone 3-18 following a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Off an overtime win over the last two seasons, Arizona has gone a miserable 1-9, losing those contests by an average margin of 1.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 7-3 revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game on average. Despite its overall losing record, San Jose has also gone a solid 9-5 after losing four or five of its last six contests this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game in that situation. The Sharks have managed to hold their own here in Glendale in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including a 1-1 split earlier this season where they won the front-half. Take San Jose (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -178 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Avalanche coming off a disappointing shootout loss in Arizona two nights ago. Colorado went with newly-acquired and struggling goaltender Jonas Johansson in that game, giving Philipp Grubauer a much-deserved night off. Grubauer should be back in goal on Thursday, noting that he has allowed just three goals on the last 137 shots he has faced. The Avs are also back on home ice for this one, where they've gone 11-5 this season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals per game. Of course, Colorado will also be looking for revenge after suffering a 3-0 loss against the Knights here in Denver back on February 22nd. We actually won with Vegas in that spot, expecting a clear letdown from the Avs off their outdoor game victory over the Knights two days earlier. Colorado has gone a perfect 9-0 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 2.9-goal margin in those contests. The Avs are also a solid 23-9 after allowing four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Vegas averages just 2.7 goals per game after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons and I don't believe it will have enough to get past the Avs in the first of this two-game set on Thursday night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Panthers as they look to snap their mini two-game skid on Thursday night in Chicago. We actually won with the Blackhawks in the front half of this two-game set as they skated to a 3-2 victory. Now Florida is set up well to respond favorably, noting it has allowed just 1.9 goals per game when on the road coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals in that situation, which has come up on 10 previous occasions. Meanwhile, Chicago is giving up a whopping 4.2 goals per game when playing on home ice following a one-goal victory over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 15-5 coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that situation. No Sasha Barkov for the Panthers again on Thursday but they have enough depth to pick up the slack. Take Florida (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. Detroit has been shutout in each of its last two games and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. There's little reason to anticipate much progression here, noting that Detroit averages just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons and 1.9 goals per game when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the same period. While the Wings are by no means a good defensive team, the Predators aren't likely to run it up on them, noting that Nashville averages only 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season and has scored more than three goals in regulation time just once in its last eight games. It's worth noting that Nashville averages just 2.2 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. We've seen the 'under' cash in three of the last five meetings between these two teams in Nashville. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This will be the fourth consecutive game between the Hurricanes and Blue Jackets with the previous three all staying 'under' the total. I look for that trend to continue on Thursday. After Tuesday's 3-0 shutout loss, it's worth noting that the Jackets haven't exactly thrived in a bounce-back role, averaging just 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games averaging a total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' has gone 25-9 when Columbus plays at home after winning two of its last three games, with those contests totaling an average of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes average a miserable 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road following a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with those games averaging only 4.8 total goals. That same situation has produced a 3-12 o/u record over the last two seasons. I always like to say that familiarity lends itself to low-scoring games and with this being the seventh meeting between these two teams this season, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair two nights ago as the Sharks skated to a 2-1 victory on home ice. I'm expecting a higher-scoring contest on Wednesday night. Note that while San Jose gave up just one goal in Monday's game, it has still allowed 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 19-9 when the Sharks come off a game in which they allowed one goal or less over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. I'll also point out that the 'over' is 16-6 when San Jose plays at home off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 7.0 goals. The Kings average a respectable 2.9 goals per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons but also allow 3.6 goals per game coming off a game where four goals or less were scored over the last three seasons. Prior to Monday, the two previous meetings between these two rivals this season both produced at least seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in this same matchup last week but I'm going to come back with the same play in the rematch on Tuesday night. We won with the Lightning on Sunday as they poured it on late for a 5-3 victory over the Panthers. While they're certainly the superior team in this matchup, Dallas is set up reasonably well having allowed just 2.2 goals per game coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, and giving up just 2.6 goals per game on average at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 20-6 when the Stars play at home off of three losses in their last four games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. This will mark the 10th meeting between these two teams since the start of 2020 with Tampa holding Dallas to three goals or less in seven of the last nine matchups. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Lightning -163 v. Stars | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning on Sunday and we'll come right back with them again on Tuesday night as they head to Dallas to face the Stars for the second time in a week. The Stars simply haven't been able to regain the magic that saw them make an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final to face these same Lightning last fall. Considering they've been held to three goals or less in seven straight games, losing five of those, I question whether they can keep pace with the Lightning here. Note that Dallas is a miserable 1-7 when revenging a loss where its opponent scored four goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have been a tremendous positive momentum play, having gone 34-10 coming off four or more straight wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (9*). |
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03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Obviously the looming possibility of Thomas Greiss getting the start in goal for the Red Wings is concerning (Greiss has been awful this season) but I think it is offset by the way this situation sets up in general, supporting a play on the 'under'. The Predators are coming off an encouraging road trip that saw them win four games while also grabbing a point in an overtime loss over the course of eight games. This quote from Ryan Johansen has me concerned a letdown could be in order on Tuesday, however. "This was a make-or-break trip for us. We had to find a way to get points and win some games, and then we did that." Note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Preds returning home following a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 10-1 when the Preds return home following a road win in which they scored four or more goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of just 3.8 goals. Meanwhile, the Red Wings scoring woes have been well-documented. They average just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a division game over the last two seasons. On a positive note for Detroit, Nashville averages just 2.1 goals per game after winning three of its last four games over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Devils are coming off six consecutive 'under' results but it's worth noting that five of those games were played at home (where they've been involved in mostly low-scoring affairs this season) and the lone road game came in Pittsburgh against a Penguins team that has been involved in a string of low-scoring games lately. We've seen quite a contrast in the Devils results at home compared to on the road. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.2 goals per game away from home this season while giving up 3.0 goals per contest on a whopping 35.6 shots on goal per game. The 'over' has cashed at an 8-4 clip when New Jersey plays on the road compared to a 4-13 o/u mark on home ice. We won with the 'under' in the Flyers overtime loss here at home against the Islanders last night, snapping Philadelphia's streak of seven straight 'over' results. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 when the Flyers come off two straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 8.3 goals. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 when Philadelphia checks in having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons with that situation producing 8.4 total goals on average. After being held to just six goals in a three-game set with the Penguins, the Devils should be excited at the prospect of facing a Flyers squad that has given up at least four goals in six of their last eight games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While I don't generally play a lot of Flyers 'unders' (for obvious reasons), I do like the way the spot sets up on Monday night. The Isles have of course shown a strong home-road dichotomy when it comes to totals this season. The 'under' has gone 14-2 in their 16 road games to date, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 when the Isles play on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Flyers have posted a 1-8 o/u mark when at home revenging a loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. The 'under' is also 11-3 when the Flyers play on home ice after three consecutive games that saw at least seven goals scored, as is the case here. That situation has totaled an average of 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Hurricanes -157 v. Blue Jackets | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Monday. |
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03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in this matchup on Friday night as the Knights skated to a 4-2 win to send it 'over' the total. I'll make the same play again on Sunday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 24-12 when the Kings play at home after losing three of their last four games over the last two seasons. The Knights are giving up just 2.1 goals per game following an 'over' result this season. The 'under' is a solid 56-36 when they play for the fourth time in the last seven days over the last three seasons as well. With the 'over' having cashed in three straight meetings, we're seeing the total shaded to the over again here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Panthers v. Lightning -135 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll take advantage of a rare short price to back the Lightning on Sunday afternoon as they aim to keep their winning streak intact against the rival Panthers. Florida is coming off a 2-0 bounce-back victory over the Predators yesterday but finds itself in a tough situation here. Note that the Panthers are 1-4 after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. They're also 14-23 after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Lightning own a stellar 44-15 record against division opponents over the last two seasons and certainly haven't forgot the 6-4 loss they suffered at the hands of the Panthers here at home on February 15th. That marked Florida's first victory here in Tampa in their last five tries though and I look for the Lightning to get the season series back to an even 2-2 with a win on Sunday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Flames v. Maple Leafs -155 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs struggles continued last night as they fell behind early and never recovered in a 4-3 loss against the Flames. I do expect Toronto to bounce back on Saturday night, however, noting that it has gone an incredible 15-4 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons. While Calgary did win last night, it is still a losing team on the road at 7-10 on the season, where it allows over three goals per game. Take Toronto (9*). |
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03-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -185 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -185 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I have no problem laying the relatively steep price to back the Hurricanes on home ice against the Blue Jackets on Saturday. Columbus took the first game of this two-game set in Carolina on Thursday by a 3-2 score in overtime. That puts the Jackets in a tough spot here as they're averaging just 1.9 goals per game playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. On six occasions where the Jackets have played on the road off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, they've averaged just one goal per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals. Carolina allows just 1.9 goals per game and outscores the opposition by 1.0 goal on average when coming off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. Take Carolina (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We've somewhat surprisingly seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams this season but I look for a return to 'normal' on Friday night as Vegas puts its four-game winning streak on the line in Los Angeles. Note that Vegas is giving up just 1.5 goals per game when going on the road off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-2 clip in that situation. The Knights are of course coming off consecutive one-goal wins over the Sharks earlier this week (we won with San Jose on the puck-line in both of those games). Meanwhile, the Kings have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 3.6 goals. The Kings posted a 4-1 victory over the reeling Blues two nights ago after that game was postponed on Monday with L.A. stuck in Denver due to a snowstorm. The Knights are allowing just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season but the Kings have been no slouches at home either, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. They haven't given up more than three goals in a game here at Staples Center since back on February 9th against San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Wild v. Avalanche -143 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. This is about as cheap of a price as you're going to see with the Avs playing at home and it has everything to do with the fact that the Wild have won five straight games. Keep in mind, those five straight wins all came at home. Now the Wild head out on the road to face what will be a revenge-minded Avs squad after Minnesota took the most recent meeting 6-2 in late February. Note that Colorado is 20-7 when revenging a loss where it allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. The Avs are also 17-3 off a home win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals per game. The Wild are 12-24 after recording consecutive wins by 3+ goals. Take Colorado (10*). |