Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time a Stanley Cup Final series-opener finished 'under' five total goals. I don't expect that trend to change on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-2 with the Lightning coming off consecutive games where they scored two goals or less this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Following an 'under' result over the last two seasons, Tampa Bay's next game has totaled an average of 6.1 goals. Meanwhile, the Canadiens average 3.1 goals per game when playing on the road off two or more consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Those games have averaged 5.6 total goals. I think there's always a bit of a tendency for teams to 'exhale' after reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Both teams have been involved in a number of tightly-contested low-scoring affairs recently but here I look for things to open up. Take the over (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We have a pretty good read on the Lightning right now having just gone 6-0-2 (including free) over the course of their seven-game series against the Islanders. Here, I look for them to get off to a positive start as they begin their quest for a second straight Stanley Cup title against the upstart Canadiens. This is by no means a favorable matchup for the Habs. Tampa Bay has absolutely had Montreal's number over the last few seasons, taking seven of the last eight meetings in this series. This will of course be the first matchup between these two teams this season but I expect the Bolts dominance to continue. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 20-3 when coming off a game where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals. The Canadiens on the other hand are 11-21 after winning four of their last five contests over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. For whatever reason, we saw the Golden Knights absolutely wilt over the course of their series with the Habs. It almost seems as if a lopsided 4-1 win in Game 1 may have been their downfall as they seemed to start reading their own press and believing the series was going to be a cakewalk. I don't envision the Bolts experiencing a similar fate here. Home ice doesn't always mean a great deal in the NHL Playoffs, but it has most definitely meant something to the Bolts this season as they've gone 27-10 here in Tampa, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. Here in the playoffs they check in giving up just 2.1 goals per game. The Habs have proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and while I certainly don't expect them to get walked all over in this series, I do think they're going to have a very difficult time gaining the upper hand at any point against an ultra-talented and obviously experienced Lightning that has its sights set on another Stanley Cup championship. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 0-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We've already won twice with the 'under' in this series, settling for a 'push' with that same play in Game 6. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as the Isles and Lightning do battle in Game 7 on Friday night. While the Lightning have almost always been known for their offense, their Game 7 history is as low-scoring as it gets. In fact, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 in their last eight Game 7 contests, with those games averaging a ridiculously-low total of just 2.4 goals. The 'under' is also 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played at home looking to close out a series with those contests averaging just 4.3 total goals. Under the guidance of head coach Jon Cooper the 'under' is a terrific 17-5 with the Lightning playing at home in potential series-clinching games with those contests all totaling just 4.3 total goals on average. The Islanders know they can ill afford to let down their guard after prevailing 3-2 in overtime last time out. We saw what the Lightning are capable of in Game 5 here in Tampa as they lit up the Isles in an 8-0 rout. New York may have a bit of an advantage here if Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov isn't healthy enough to play after exiting in the first minute of Game 6 following an ugly cross check. Take the under (10*). |
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06-24-21 | Golden Knights -140 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The road team has now won three of the five games in this series which is to say, home ice doesn't mean a great deal at this stage of the playoffs. I expect that trend to continue tonight as the Golden Knights look to force a seventh and deciding game back home. Keep in mind, the Knights have been a terrific road team all season, going 23-13 in the visitors role, outscoring the opposition by 0.8 goals on average. While they're suddenly down 3-2 in this series there's no reason to push the panic button. They just as easily could have taken both previous games here in Montreal were it not for an untimely third period gaffe by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 3. The Canadiens check in just 17-18 on home ice this season and despite being the team leading this series, they have to be feeling some pressure to wrap things up on Thursday at home. I look for them to fail in their first attempt at least, having gone just 13-20 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over the last three seasons and 4-9 when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons. In both situations they've allowed north of three goals per game. Meanwhile, the Knights are in one of their best situations here, having gone 26-8 when seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. Take Vegas (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Lightning rolled to an 8-0 victory in Game 5 of this series on Monday (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Long Island for Game 6. The Isles are of course known for their defensive play under head coach Barry Trotz and that's what makes the lopsided nature of Game 5 so stunning. Back at home, the Isles should respond favorably as they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game at Nassau Coliseum this season. Note that the Lightning have also been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, where they average 2.9 goals per game, well below their season average of 3.3 goals per contest. The 'under' has actually gone 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played on the road looking to close out a playoff series with those games averaging just 4.2 total goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Tampa Bay playing on the road off a home win this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Islanders have posted a 1-8 o/u record when revenging a loss by three goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of only 3.6 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Isles coming off a shutout loss on the road over the last two seasons with that situation producing a staggeringly-low 2.7 total goals on average. We've yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total in this series and I don't see it happening here either. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights -233 | 4-1 | Loss | -233 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're being asked to pay a rather large tariff to back the Golden Knights back home in Game 5 of this series on Tuesday night although it's actually lower than we saw in Games 1 and 2 here in Las Vegas (at the time of writing). Vegas falls into a quirky trend that we've supported on more than one occasion this season, that being that it has gone an incredible 19-3 the last 22 times it has come off an overtime win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. The Knights also check in as a terrific positive momentum play having gone 29-10 after a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have gone 16-24 and allowed 3.3 goals per game when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. They're not a great road team having gone 17-19 in the visitors role this season and I just don't see them taking more than one game from the Knights here in Vegas in this series. For Vegas' part, it has gone an incredible 27-10 on home ice this season where it averages an impressive 3.5 goals per contest. I think falling behind 2-1 in this series was the wake-up call it needed. Take Vegas (9*). |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've yet to see a game produce more than five goals in this series but I still think it's coming. With so much criticism of the officials letting too much go in this series (and in Game 4 in particular) I would expect this one to be called a little tighter, perhaps leading to more power play opportunities for both teams. Apart from that, it's certainly worth noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 with the Knights coming off a one-goal victory this season with those games averaging a whopping 6.6 total goals. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have allowed 3.3 goals per game when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average total of 6.4 goals. With Montreal coming off a game where four or less goals were scored, their next game has averaged 5.7 total goals over the last two seasons. Look for things to finally open up in this series on Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Take the over (9*). |
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06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -183 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've had a pretty good read on this series so far, winning with the 'under' in Game 1, the Lightning in Game 2, the 'under' in Game 3 and 'pushing' with the 'over' in Game 4. Here, I'll go back to the well with the Lightning as they're set up well returning home off a loss in Game 4. The Lightning are of course a dominant home team, having gone 25-10, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average here at Amalie Arena this season. Note that Tampa Bay has posted an incredible 59-22 record when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.1 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Islanders average only 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road following a win this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. The Isles have certainly been a different team on the road this season, where they've gone 16-20 and average only 2.2 goals per contest. I expect them to have a tough time keeping pace with the high-powered Lightning offense, back home in a bounce-back spot here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights -174 v. Canadiens | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. I can understand bettors being a little nervous backing the Golden Knights given the way they've played the last two games. However, the fact is they just as easily could have won Game 3 of this series were it not for Marc-Andre Fleury's gaffe playing the puck late in the third period. I fully expect to see Vegas bounce back here on Sunday. Note that the Knights are 12-2 when playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. They're also an incredible 28-8 when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Montreal is just 11-20 after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. Finally, the Habs are 6-12 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. This is by no means a 'must-win game' for the Golden Knights but the prospect of breaking down the Habs in three straight games given the confidence Montreal is playing with right now would certainly be daunting. Look for the Knights to respond on Sunday night. Take Vegas (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semis Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Saturday as the Islanders look to answer back following consecutive losses. New York has to realize at this point that it's not going to win this series by sitting back on its heels. The Isles have now registered less than 30 shots in consecutive games. When they've been at their best in these playoffs they've been playing with an attacking mindset, as evidenced by their lone win in this series, a 2-1 victory in Game 1 where they fired 31 shots on goal. Note that the 'over' is 8-2 with the Isles playing at home after a game where three or less total goals were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced a whopping 7.2 goals on average this season. The 'over' is also 22-12 with the Isles revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lightning have posted a 13-6 o/u record when playing consecutive road games this season with that situation producing 6.4 total goals on average. Over the last two seasons, Lightning games following an 'under' result have averaged 6.0 total goals. The Lightning aren't likely to sit back and play conservatively just because they've grabbed a 2-1 series lead. I look for both teams to find more offensive success than we saw in a tightly-contested Game 3. We'll take advantage of the '5' being offered tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights -158 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won a big ticket play on the Canadiens +1.5 goals two nights ago as they stunned the Knights in a 3-2 outright victory in Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Knights to answer back as the scene shifts to Montreal for Game 3 on Friday night. I believe this situation sets up similarly to Game 3 in the Knights opening round series against Minnesota. The Wild managed to steal one of the first two games in Las Vegas but the Knights responded favorably to the pressure in Game 3 in Minnesota, rallying from an early deficit to deliver a 5-2 victory. Vegas has been one of the best road teams in the NHL this season, posting a 22-12 record while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals. The Habs on the other hand haven't been anything special here at the Bell Centre, posting a 16-17 record. They're currently riding a three-game winning streak here at home, which matches their longest such streak of the season. The last time they tried to make it four wins in a row on home ice they fell by a 4-3 score against the Oilers back on May 10th. Note that the Canadiens check in a miserable 10-20 after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Take Vegas (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 between the Lightning and Islanders last night. In fact, in going 4-0 this round we've yet to step in with a play on the 'over'. We'll switch gears and do so here, however, as the Knights and Canadiens head north for Game 3 in Montreal. Vegas got off to a quick offensive start in this series but looked like a different team in Game 2, perhaps missing first-line center Chandler Stephenson, or perhaps taking the Habs a little too lightly after cruising to a 4-1 win in the series-opener. Whatever the case, I expect to see the Knights bounce back offensively in this one. The Canadiens haven't been a better defensive team at home this season, allowing an identical 2.9 goals per game to what they give up on the road. The Knights, meanwhile, haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production away from home, averaging 3.2 goals per contest, just 0.1 goals per game lower than their season average. Keep in mind, Knights road games this season have averaged 5.5 goals per game while their playoff games have averaged just shy of that at 5.4 goals per game. The Canadiens have admittedly been involved in lower-scoring playoff affairs, with their games averaging just 4.8 total goals, however, it's worth noting that each of their last four games have totaled at least five goals. I simply feel that we're going to see totals back at 5.5 in this series, just as we saw back in Game 1. Look for the Knights to come out with an attacking mindset after a poor performance in Game 2 while the Habs aren't likely to lay down here at home, helping contribute to this one going 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 119 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series before switching gears and backing the Lightning in Game 2. Here, I'll go back to the well with the 'under' as the scene shifts to Long Island for Game 3 on Thursday night. The Islanders aren't going to win many games trying to run and gun with the Lightning in this series. Tampa Bay is simply too deep and explosive offensively for the Isles to last very long playing the way they did in Game 2. Penalties obviously played a role in that setback as well. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from the Isles back home if nothing else. Note that the Islanders have allowed just 2.1 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'under' has gone 12-4 with New York revenging a loss where their opponents scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is also 15-5 with the Isles playing at home off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.6 goals. On the flip side, the Lightning have posted a 1-8 o/u record when playing on the road off a home win this season. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.5 goals. These two teams are somewhat familiar with one another having faced off in the Eastern Conference Final in last year's 'bubble' playoffs. Note that the 'under' has cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in this series. While we'd like to be dealing with a '5.5' here, I do like the plus money return being offered at '5' here in what I would expect to be a 'first to three wins' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Habs for at least staying in the game in the opener of this series on Monday night. They could have easily folded the tent after falling behind 2-0 early in the second period but answered back with a goal to cut the lead in half. They could have also let the game get out of hand after a quick response from Vegas to make it 3-1 but instead they battled in the third period, ultimately outshooting the Knights 12-9 in the final frame and falling by a 4-1 score. The Canadiens are very much a team with 'nothing to lose' here in the Stanley Cup semi-final round. Few expected them to get out of the first round let alone make it out of the North Division. Facing the Knights is a tall task and I certainly don't expect them to win this series. However, I do think they're well-positioned to give Vegas a run in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Note that Montreal is 11-5 after scoring a goal or less in its last game this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. We've also seen the Habs allow just 2.4 goals per game and outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals when revenging a loss by four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation coming up 21 times previously. The Knights are just 4-10 when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more in franchise history, allowing 3.5 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. Vegas is a terrific team and certainly has a clear path to a Stanley Cup title at this point. However, I don't think it will go completely untested in this series. Look for the Habs to keep things close at the very least in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semi-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning got off to a typically sluggish start in Game 1 of this series on Sunday, not all that surprising given they had been idle for four full days after finishing off the Hurricanes in five games. They did ultimately come alive in the latter stages of that contest, but it was too little, too late in a 2-1 loss. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to bounce back on home ice, where they've gone 24-10, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average this season. Note that the Bolts are an incredible 19-3 after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. They're also a rock solid 58-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons. The Islanders have now won four games in a row - their longest winning streak since April 1st to 8th. On that occasion, they failed to make it five straight victories, falling by a 4-1 score at home against the Rangers. New York is a long-term loser when playing on the road after winning three or more games in a row, going 28-57 in their last 85 opportunities. Note that the Isles are averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season, as is the case here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
NHL on NBC Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed with the 'over' on three separate occasions during the Islanders series win over the Bruins last round. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the Isles open their Stanley Cup semi-final series against the Lightning in Tampa. Note that the 'under' has gone 22-10-2 in all Islanders road games this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 12-2 with the Lightning coming off a shutout victory over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. The Isles carried an attacking mindset against the Bruins, who were missing a key piece on defense in Brandon Carlo, and who had an injured goaltender in Tuukka Rask. Here, I think we'll see the Isles employ a different gameplan as they look to muck things up and slow down the explosive Lightning offense. While these two teams haven't met this season, six of their last nine matchups have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche +127 v. Golden Knights | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect the Avs to go away quietly in this series, keeping in mind the Golden Knights are just 3-8 when attempting to close out a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Colorado does have two victories to its credit here in Las Vegas this season and despite dropping Games 3 and 4 here, has proven to be a solid road team this season, posting a 20-13 record. Note that the Avs have allowed just 1.8 goals per game and outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.6 goals after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games this season. They've also held opponents to 1.3 goals and outscored them by 1.5 goals on average when coming off consecutive games where they were held to two goals or less. This has been an incredibly tightly-contested series with the Knights holding just a slight 10-9 edge in the last 19 meetings over the last three seasons. I expected a seven-game war heading into the series and I believe the Knights will be in tough trying to register a fourth straight victory over the Avs on Thursday night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike last night, when I suggested the Islanders would come out with an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the Bruins on home ice, here I look for the Golden Knights to focus on staying fundamentally-sound defensively as they attempt to close out the Avalanche in Game 6. The Knights may be known for their offense but they've actually been very stout defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.1 goals per game this season. This will be the 14th meeting between these two teams this season with the 'under' having cashed at a 9-4 clip. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-11 with the Avs playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Avs playing on the road off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, 8-1 after they give up three goals or more in consecutive games this season and a perfect 6-0 after they've been held to two goals or less in consecutive contests this season. I don't see things suddenly opening up in this 'elimination game' on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Monday night - one of our easiest winning tickets of the entire playoffs. While my first instinct was to give a hard look at the 'under' in Game 6, I just can't get there given the state of the Bruins. Goaltender Tuukka Rask was of course lifted from Game 5 due to an undisclosed injury. Maybe he'll be able to go on Wednesday, but even if he can, he hasn't shown the ability to steal a game in these playoffs. Top defenseman Brandon Carlo is also sidelined, an absolute anchor defensively in the B's own end of the rink. The Islanders are a supremely confident squad right now and should keep an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the favored Bruins on home ice in Game 6, avoiding a Game 7 back in Boston. Remember, last round the Isles overwhelmed the Penguins, scoring five goals in a series-clinching Game 6 victory here at the Nassau Coliseum. The Isles know they can't stop the Bruins 'Perfection Line' with Pastrnak, Marchand and Bergeron generating a ton of scoring chances in this series, with a hand in the majority of the Bruins goals. Note that the Isles are averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off two or more straight losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -144 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has dominated this series, going a perfect 4-0 so far and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday night. After all, the Avs have gone an incredible 25-6 on home ice this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals per contest. Note that Colorado is a perfect 10-0 when at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.4 goals (!). The Avs are also 24-8 when revenging a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons and 25-12 when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. There aren't many situations where the Golden Knights own a losing record in recent years but here's one - they're just 11-16 when coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and the Knights have yet to win three consecutive matchups with the Avs. Look for that to hold true on Tuesday. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and we've yet to see the 'over' cash in consecutive matchups. Off Saturday's wild, high-scoring 6-4 Lightning victory (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), we'll back the 'under' in Tuesday's elimination game in Carolina. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 the last seven times the Lightning have attempted to close out a series, with those contests averaging just 3.8 total goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, with those games also averaging a total of just 3.8 goals. It's also worth noting that the 'under' has gone 12-5 with the Lightning coming off a home win by two goals or more this season and 25-11 with Carolina playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Last night's game between these two teams crept 'over' the total only thanks to a late empty net goal. Note that now we find the Habs in a situation where the 'under' has gone 7-1 this season when coming off a home win in which they scored four goals or more this season. The 'under' is also 31-14 the last 45 times the Jets have been on the road seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five goals or more, as is the case here. We can certainly anticipate the Jets tightening things up here as they desperately try to stave off elimination and get the series back to Winnipeg for Game 5. Note that we've yet to see the Canadiens post consecutive 'over' results in these playoffs with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip overall. Since head coach Dominique Ducharme took over for Claude Julien, we've seen the 'under' go 9-2 with the Habs coming off a home victory this season with those games totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (9*). |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 6:35 pm et on Monday. The Islanders were able to do a reasonable job of holding down the Bruins 'perfection line' in two games on Long Island but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday in Boston. The Bruins have of course been a much higher-scoring team at home this season, where they average 3.4 goals per game. We saw that in the first two games in this series as they put eight goals in the Isles net. New York knows that it's not going to stop the B's top line here in Beantown - it needs to keep pace with an aggressive offensive effort the likes of which we saw back in Game 2. Interestingly, the B's have been a slightly weaker defensive team at home this season, where they allow 2.5 goals per contest. While the Isles average just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season, we've seen a much different story in these playoffs as they've put up 14 goals in five road contests. Take the over (9*). |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -179 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -179 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over New York at 6:35 pm et on Monday. New York evened up this series with a convincing 4-1 victory at a raucous Nassau Coliseum on Saturday. Now I look for the Bruins to take back control of the series as the scene shifts back to Boston on Monday. Note that Boston is 13-1 when playing at home after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Islanders average a miserable 1.9 goals per game when on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins are 20-11 on home ice this season where they average an impressive 3.4 goals per game. Look for the Isles to once again have a tough time keeping pace on Monday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Jets +1.5 v. Canadiens | 1-5 | Loss | -199 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg +1.5 goals over Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Jets had every opportunity to get back in this series on Friday night but couldn't solve Carey Price and now head to Montreal down two games ahead of Sunday's Game 3 clash. I do expect to see Winnipeg's best effort on Sunday as it knows that it can ill afford to dig itself an 0-3 hole, much like Carolina against Tampa earlier this week. The Canadiens have now reeled off five consecutive victories since going down 3-1 against the Leafs in round one but as well as they're playing, I believe that streak is on borrowed time. I still feel this has the makings of a long series, while the Canadiens owned the opener, Winnipeg just as easily could have prevailed on Friday night. Extended success against the Jets hasn't been commonplace for the Habs and Winnipeg knows it can steal a game in Montreal. As I've noted time and time again, home ice just doesn't mean quite as much in the NHL Playoffs compared to other sports. While we're being asked to pay a tariff to back the Jets with an insurance goal on Sunday, I believe the price could be even higher. Take Winnipeg +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While the first game in this series was high-scoring, both teams settled into a defensive affair in Friday's 1-0 Canadiens victory. I don't think either team believes it needs to score more than 2-3 goals to secure victories in this series and for Winnipeg this is obviously as close to a must-win without being exactly that as it gets. Carey Price is locked in right now and it seems that whenever the Jets go down a key scorer up front (ie. Nik Ehlers or Blake Wheeler during the regular season and now Mark Scheifele) its secondary options struggle to pick up the slack. The Jets were never really threatened in their own end in Game 2 apart from Tyler Toffoli's short-handed marker, which was a pretty bad goal for Connor Hellebuyck to allow in a critical situation down a game in this series. I do think Hellebuyck is capable of stealing a game for the Jets though, even if their offense fails to show up once again. With all of that being said, the days of 5.5's may be numbered in this series. I'm banking on another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Montreal. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -152 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Carolina at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Hurricanes were clearly the more desperate team in Game 3 of this series and ultimately skated away with a 3-2 overtime victory on a power play goal in the first extra period. Here, I look for the Lightning to punch back. We won with the Canes (on the puck-line) in Game 3 so the fact that they pulled off the 'upset' didn't come as a surprise. It was very unlikely Carolina was going to go away quietly in this series. However, the Canes are in a tougher spot here on Saturday, unable to gain the same mental boost from the goalie change to Petr Mrazek and quite possibly without one of their best players in Vincent Trocheck once again. While there's a chance Trocheck will return, how effective he can be remains to be seen. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 57-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game on average. They've also taken five of the last eight meetings between these two teams in Tampa. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Friday. One would think the Jets would be at a major disadvantage here, not only down 1-0 in the series but now also without one of their best players in Mark Scheifele after his bone-headed decision to charge Jake Evans for a vicious hit in the final minute of Game 1. I actually feel his absence could be galvanizing in nature for this Jets squad that has faced plenty of adversity this season, while serving as more of a distraction for the Canadiens, who should be focused on trying to take a 2-0 stranglehold on this series rather than on exacting revenge for Scheifele's hit. Regardless, the Habs are set up poorly here having gone 1-7 after winning three straight games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. In a bit of a quirky trend, they're also a miserable 11-26 when playing their third straight road game over the last two seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game in that spot. Finally, it's worth noting that they're 4-12 after consecutive wins by two or more goals over the last three seasons, giving up an average of 3.7 goals in that situation. For their part, the Jets are 11-4 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season and better still, 28-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four or more goals over the last two seasons, averaging 3.2 goals per game in that spot. They've proven to be a terrific bounce-back team, going 24-12 following a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.8 goals on average. This will be the 11th meeting between these two teams this season and Montreal has yet to record three consecutive victories. I don't see it happening tonight either. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Round Two Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. If the Hurricanes are going to have any chance at getting back in this series they're going to need to break through against Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the scene shifting to Tampa for Game 3 on Thursday night, I expect them to do just that. Note that the last four times the Lightning have played after posting consecutive road victories, they've gone on to allow a whopping 6.0 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of 9.3 goals. We're talking about a small sample size, but the point is still worth making. Also note that the 'over' has gone 17-7 the last 24 times the Lightning have come off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, with those games totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than its home games this season, averaging a total of 6.0 goals. Lightning home games have averaged an identical 6.0 goals as well. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' has gone 27-17 with the Canes playing on the road with a total of 5.5 under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. We've now seen four consecutive 'under' results in games between these two teams. I believe both have too much offensive firepower for that trend to continue much longer. Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Avalanche | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas +1.5 goals over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting Game 2 of this series to play out much differently than Game 1. The Avs of course skated to a stunning 7-1 blowout victory in the series opener, overwhelming a Knights squad that was just one day removed from finishing off its hard-fought seven-game opening round series with the Wild. Now Vegas is set up well, having gone a perfect 12-0 when revenging a road loss against an opponent by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals in that situation. Colorado's Game 1 victory marked its second straight win over Vegas. It's worth noting that neither team has managed to win three in a row in nine meetings in this series this season. Also note that the Knights are 7-2 against the Avs this season when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line that we're dealing with tonight. Take Vegas +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday as the Golden Knights inexplicably turned to Robin Lehner between the pipes and were absolutely dominated to the tune of a 7-1 loss. Here, I fully expect Vegas to punch back but I'm not convinced it will find a great deal of offensive success noting that the Avs have allowed just 1.9 goals per game on home ice this season. For their part, the Knights have given up only 2.3 goals per game on the road this season so Game 1 could certainly be considered an anomaly. Prior to that contest, Vegas had held Colorado to exactly two goals in three straight meetings. It's not as if this has been a particularly high-scoring series this season as the 'under' has actually gone 6-3. Note that the 'under' is 17-7 with the Knights playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 5.0 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -110 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. While we missed with the Canes in Game 1 of this series on Sunday I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again in Game 2 as they look to even this series at one game apiece. Carolina actually outshot Tampa Bay by a 38-30 margin in Game 1 but was ultimately foiled by what could only be called a 'bad goal' given up by Alex Nedeljkovic in the third period. Carolina is still 23-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. The Canes know that if they're going to have any shot at dethroning the defending Stanley Cup champions they need this win as taking four out of the next five games is likely too tall of a task against a team as good as the Lightning. As terrific as the Lightning have been in recent years, this isn't an ideal spot for them as they've gone just 20-23 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons. Take Carolina (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're only one game into this series but as good as a defensive team as they are, I think the chances of the Islanders slowing down the Bruins 'Perfection Line' of Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak are slim to none. While David Pastrnak managed a hat trick in Game 1, he easily could have had a couple more goals as well. When the dust settled, the Bruins shook off some early rust and cruised to a 5-2 series-opening victory. New York generally carries a defensive mindset under head coach Barry Trotz but here I think it knows it will have to turn up the offensive volume in order to stay in this series. It's worth noting that the Isles have managed to score at least four goals against the Bruins on three different occasions this season. While they faced a different challenge in round one, they scored four goals in both games where they were coming off a loss, as is the case here. Note that the Isles have allowed 3.4 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. The Bruins have been a terrific positive momentum play here at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game after winning two or more games in a row over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' cashed in the final three games of the Avs opening round demolition of the Blues and also hit in the Golden Knights Game 7 clincher against the Wild. Here, I'll go the contrarian route and call for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. Yes, both teams are loaded with offensive firepower but with that being said, the 'under' has actually cashed in three of their last five matchups here in Colorado and four of their last six meetings overall. While better known for their offense, the Avs have been terrific at keeping pucks out of their own net here at home this season, allowing just 1.9 goals per game. Likewise, the Knights have allowed just 2.2 goals per game away from home this season. Note that the Knights check in sporting an 11-22 o/u record when playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 22-10 with the Knights playing on the road off a game where seven or more goals were scored over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.1 goals as well. On the other side, the Avs have posted a 10-22 o/u record the last 32 times they've followed consecutive road wins by two goals or more with that situation producing an average total of only 4.7 goals. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Avs average only 1.9 goals per game when playing at home in their fifth or less game in the last two weeks over the last three seasons. That situation has come up nine times previously. Take the under (9*). |
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05-30-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -105 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Tampa Bay at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. This promises to be an incredible series between two true Stanley Cup contenders. I like the Hurricanes to hold serve in Sunday's series-opener. Note that Carolina hasn't just been good at home this season, it has been phenomenal, going 23-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay checks in a modest 16-14 on the road with its shooting percentage dropping considerably from its season average of 10.9% to 9.4%. The Canes have posted an incredible 11-1 record when at home off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.7 goals on average in that spot. They've also gone 9-1 off an overtime win this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals. I would match a healthy Hurricanes squad up against any other team in the league in terms of talent - even against the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. All respect to Tampa Bay, but I look for Carolina to come out strong in this series. Take Carolina (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -179 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins dropped Game 1 of their opening round series with the Capitals but went on to reel off four straight wins from there to dispose of Washington with little trouble. Meanwhile, the Islanders won Game 1 against the Penguins in overtime, setting the stage for a 4-2 series victory. Here, I look for a reversal of roles as the Bruins hold serve at TD Garden in Saturday's round two opener. Boston has been a solid home team all season, going 19-10 while outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals on average. The Isles check in just 13-18 on the road, where they average a miserable 2.1 goals per game. This one doesn't set up particularly well for New York, noting that it has gone 3-10 when on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season, averaging just 1.8 goals per game in that situation. It has also gone a miserable 27-56 the last 83 times it has played on the road off three straight victories, as is the case here. The Bruins have averaged 3.1 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.9 goals on average when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons. I much prefer backing the Isles after a loss as they just seem to be a team that responds well to adversity. Look for the Bruins to hand them some of that here in Game 1. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Maple Leafs -182 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -182 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs doubters are out in full force after Toronto failed to close out this series on home ice two nights ago (we won with the Canadiens +1.5 goals in that one). I don't think Toronto is about to hit the panic button just yet, however, and look for it to finish off the Habs on Saturday night at the Bell Centre. Yes, the Canadiens will have fans in the stands for the first time this season which should certainly give them an emotional lift. I think it also helps the Leafs, however, as they'll also be playing in front of an audience (albeit limited) for the first time this season. As I've pointed out time and time again over the years, home ice doesn't mean quite as much in the NHL Playoffs, as road teams can feed off the energy just as much as the home sides more often than not. Here, Toronto is set up exceptionally well, noting that it has gone 11-1 when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Montreal is just 2-8 following a one-goal win this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. In fact, the Habs are a miserable 8-17 off a win of any kind this season and 18-28 after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Going back over the last two seasons, the Leafs average a whopping 3.9 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent and give up only 1.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season. This will be the 16th meeting between these rivals this season and we've yet to see the Habs pick up consecutive victories. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -172 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Knights seemed to have this series all wrapped up after Game 4 with a 3-1 lead heading back home. However, they botched Game 5 and proceeded to get shut out in Game 6. So now here we are in a seventh and deciding game. I believe it still sets up well for the Knights on home ice. Note that Vegas has gone a perfect 11-0 revenging a road loss against an opponent by three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. They're also 11-1 when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals. Vegas has been a terrific home team all season, going 22-9 while allowing just 2.2 goals per game. By contrast, Minnesota is just one game over .500 on the road, allowing 3.1 goals per contest. Look for the Knights to defend home ice and advance to face the Avs with a victory on Friday. Take Vegas (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We saw an opening total of 6.0 in Game 1 of this series and now that we've reached Game 7 we're looking at a total of 5.0 (at the time of writing). It's warranted in my opinion. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 with the Knights playing at home off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Vegas has allowed just 1.1 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of just 3.9 goals. The 'under' is also 19-8 with the Knights playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games averaging a total of 5.1 goals. We've already seen three shutouts in the first six games of this series and I'm anticipating another low-scoring affair with everything on the line on Friday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Leafs have cruised to three straight victories in this series to push the Habs to the brink of elimination but I don't expect Montreal to go down without a fight on Thursday. Note that Montreal is an incredible 21-8 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also 13-6 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over that same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Leafs are just 11-14 after winning three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. They're also 10-14 when playing their third game in four nights over that stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the Habs have been in a situation where they've been seeking revenge against an opponent for a loss by three or more goals on 11 occasions this season and in that situation they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Panthers v. Lightning -138 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up well for the Lightning to close out the Panthers on home ice. Florida took Game 5 by a 4-1 score two nights ago as Tampa Bay just couldn't match the Panthers hunger facing elimination. Here, I look for the Lightning to do everything they can to avoid a return trip to Sunrise, noting that they have a number of key players playing injured and can use all the rest they can get. Tampa Bay checks in 38-12 after losing two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Better still, the Lightning are 36-10 when coming off a loss by two goals or more over that same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average. They're also an incredible 18-3 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Tampa Bay owns a decisive 7-3 edge on home ice against the Panthers over the last three seasons and I believe its Game 5 setback will only serve as a minor speedbump on its way to wrapping up this series. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Penguins +100 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NHL First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. Off a 50-shot barrage in a losing effort on Monday I look for the Penguins to finally capitalize on their opportunities and force a seventh and deciding game in this series with a victory in Uniondale on Wednesday. Note that Pittsburgh checks in a perfect 8-0 when coming off consecutive losses against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.4 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 23-11 after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. They obviously come into this game with double-revenge off consecutive losses and I'll point to the fact that they've gone 18-5 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. While the Isles do hold a 7-5 edge against the Pens here on Long Island over the last three seasons, three of those five Pittsburgh victories have come this season. This has had the feel of a seven-game series all the way and I expect it to play out accordingly on Wednesday. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -186 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up perfectly for the Hurricanes as they look to rebound on home ice after suffering consecutive overtime losses in Nashville. Note that the Predators are 0-6 off two straight one-goal wins over division opponents over the last three seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 2.5 goals in that spot. They're also 10-23 when coming off consecutive victories over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals per game in that situation. As we noted at the start of this series, home ice would likely be the ultimate decider and so far it has been with the hosts winning all four games for a 2-2 series through five. With the Canes checking in 22-8 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 goals per game, look for them to gain the upper hand on Tuesday night. Take Carolina (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has turned out to be a very high-scoring series with three of the four games totaling seven goals or more. I expect things to tighten up considerably now that the series is all knotted at two games apiece, however. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Hurricanes at home off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals. For the Preds part, the 'under' has gone 11-3 when they play on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. Despite the high-scoring nature of this playoff series, the 'under' remains 8-6 in the last 14 meetings in this series while five of the last seven matchups here in Raleigh have also gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Penguins took one on the chin on Saturday afternoon in Uniondale, suffering a lopsided 4-1 defeat to even the series up at two games apiece. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to answer back on home ice where it has gone 23-7 this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.4 goals. Note that Pittsburgh checks in 9-1 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 16-2 at home off a loss over the last two seasons, holding a 1.8-goal scoring edge in that situation. This has been an incredibly tightly-contested series in recent years so it's no surprise at all that it's all tied up through four games. However, I do think home ice means something at this stage of the series and like the Pens to defend it here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Oilers -125 v. Jets | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Winnipeg at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. Most didn't give the Jets much of a chance of even winning a game in this series let alone stealing the first two contests in Edmonton. But that's precisely what they did and now they return home with a chance to take full control of the series on Sunday night. I don't see it happening, however. Note that the Oilers are a perfect 7-0 when revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. They're also 8-1 this season on the road off a loss, outscoring opponents by 2.1 on average in that spot. Meanwhile, in an odd quirk, the Jets have gone a miserable 2-11 off an overtime win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. They're also 2-8 after winning three or more games in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that spot. Ordinarily the Jets would have a big edge playing at home in front of a raucous 'white out' crowd here in the postseason. Due to the pandemic that's simply not the case this year. Note that Winnipeg has gone just 13-15 on home ice this season. Look for the Oilers to get back in the series on Sunday night. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -222 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 goals over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a tighter series than the 3-1 advantage for the Bruins would indicate. Facing elimination on Sunday night at home, I certainly expect the Capitals to give Boston all it can handle. Note that this marks the first time the Capitals have lost three games in a row since a four-game losing streak - their longest of the season - back in early February. Note that the Bruins are 2-8 on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games this season, averaging just 2.1 goals and outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that situation. They also check in just 6-9 off a win by three goals or more this season. The Capitals, meanwhile, have allowed just 2.2 goals per game the last 15 times they've been at home facing elmination in a playoff game, outscored by just 0.1 goals in that situation. Washington has averaged a whopping 4.3 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.2 goals on average after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons. Finally, I'll point out that the Caps are 5-4 in their last nine meetings with the Bruins here on home ice and despite dropping three of the first four games in this series have gone 10-9 in the last 19 meetings overall. Take Washington +1.5 goals (9*). |
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05-23-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Nashville at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. This series has featured a couple of high-scoring games already but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in a pivotal Game 4 contest. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-4 the last 19 times the Hurricanes have played on the road leading a playoff series with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 with the Predators playing at home having allowed three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 4.8 goals. On the flip side of that, the Preds have posted a 7-24 o/u mark when at home after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last three seasons, with an average total of 4.9 goals. There's a lot on the line here as the Canes look to push the Preds to the brink of elmination heading back to Carolina while Nashville tries to even the series knowing it will need to still steal a game in Raleigh in order to win the series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +109 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. Game 3 should have been pretty easy for the Wild to flush as they simply didn't show enough fight after jumping out to an early 2-0 lead and got burned by a superior Golden Knights squad. I do expect to see some push-back from Minnesota in what amounts to a virtual must-win game on Saturday night. Note that the Wild are a perfect 8-0 when coming off consecutive losses this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. They're also 17-6 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. There's no reason for them to fold the tent here as they know they can skate with the Knights, having taken nine of the last 16 meetings overall including four of the last seven here in Minnesota. While I still have Vegas winning this series, I like the Wild to even things up on Saturday night. Take Minnesota (9*). |
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05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Credit the Canadiens for staging the Game 1 upset two nights ago, delivering a 2-1 victory despite getting outshot by a 36-30 margin. Even after losing John Tavares to a scary concussion, the Leafs shouldn't be down on themselves heading into Game 2 on Saturday night. They're still 18-11 at home this season and 6-3 in their last nine meetings with the Canadiens here in Toronto. They've been tremendous when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, going 10-1 while outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average. While the Leafs aren't necessarily known for their ability to overcome adversity, they're actually an impressive 23-11 the last 37 times they've been trailing a playoff series. The Canadiens check in 3-11 off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons and 8-16 off a victory this season. Look for the Leafs to answer back in a big way on Saturday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Friday. This series looks like it's over by all accounts after consecutive lopsided victories by the Avs but with the scene shifting to St. Louis for Game 3 I do look for the Blues to put up a fight. Note that Colorado is just 21-30 when playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in 11-2 when playing at home off consecutive losses by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. The Blues have more than held their own here at home against the Avalanche over the last three seasons, taking six of the last eight meetings. We'll grab the insurance goal with St. Louis here as the price warrants such a play, noting the Avs managed just one win by more than a single goal in four tries here in St. Louis this season. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
NHL First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Winnipeg at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This one sets up nicely for the Oilers as they look to bounce back following a disappointing 4-1 loss in Wednesday's series-opener. The Jets limped down the stretch losing nine of their final 12 regular season games including three against these same Oilers but perhaps that played a role in Edmonton taking a win for granted in Game 1. In fact, prior to Wednesday's contest, the Oilers had won six straight meetings with the Jets. Now it's the Oilers with all of the motivation as they look to even up the series before it shifts to Winnipeg for the next two games. Note that the Jets check in a miserable 3-13 after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. They're also just 6-17 when coming off a road victory by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.2 goals per game in that situation as well. Meanwhile, the Oilers check in 15-4 when coming off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. They're 7-1 when coming off consecutive losses by two or more goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal. Give the Jets all the credit in the world for stealing Game 1 as they were actually outshot by a fairly wide margin but they're a gritty road team, having gone 18-11 away from home this season, and found a way to get the 'W'. However, now that they've accomplished what was likely their goal of earning at least a split in the first two games in Edmonton, look for the Oilers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Friday. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. While the Lightning certainly have a stangle-hold on this series up 2-0 heading back home, I don't expect the Panthers to simply roll over. They know they can skate with the Lightning here in Tampa, having split four meetings here this season, going 3-1 when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line. Florida has been a quality road team this season, checking in 17-11 while averaging 3.4 goals per game. The Panthers have gone 10-1 when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. They're also 14-4 after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games and 8-1 after being held to a goal or less in their previous contest this season. Going back over the last two seasons, Florida has averaged a whopping 4.5 goals per game after being held to a goal or less in its previous game. On the flip side, the Panthers have done a good job tightening things up when heading on the road off a home loss over the last two seasons, allowing just 2.6 goals per game in the 26 times that situation has come up. We'll grab the insurance goal here out of respect for the Lightning but certainly expect Florida to show some fight. Take Florida +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Monday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' has now cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series here in Colorado. This one sets up well as another relatively low-scoring affair, noting that the Blues have posted an 0-8 o/u mark when on the road revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, which is obviously the case here following their Game 1 defeat, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. The 'under' also checks in 16-6 after the Blues allow four goals or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of 5.1 goals. For Colorado's part, it has seen the 'under' go 34-21 after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons. With Monday's 'under' result, the Avs have now seen the 'under' cash in five of their last six games overall. While they're known for their offense, they can play some defense as well, especially here at home where they give up just 1.9 goals per game this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Jets v. Oilers UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Jets aren't the same team they were earlier this season. They ended the season by losing nine of their final 12 games, struggling to find consistent offensive production after losing one of their top guns, Nik Ehlers, to a season-ending injury. While Winnipeg did score nine goals in its final two regular season games, neither contest had any meaning in the playoff race. Prior to that, the Jets had been held to three goals or less in 11 of their last 13 games and two goals or fewer in six of their last eight contests. The Oilers offense is top-heavy as we know with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl shouldering most of the scoring load. Having taken the last six meetings in this series, they'll certainly have Winnipeg's full attention on Wednesday. Note that the Jets have allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season with those games totaling an average of only 5.3 goals. Note that we've seen just one of the last six meetings in this series total more than six goals with the Oilers allowing two goals or less in all six of those contests. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game to open this series on Monday night as the Hurricanes cruised to a 5-2 victory. The Predators know they don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of high-scoring environment, however. Keep in mind, they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Hurricanes allow only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. We should see a better defensive effort from the Preds here as they've given up just 2.6 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the 'Canes have posted an 8-19 o/u record the last 27 times they've been leading a playoff series, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go an incredible 13-1 when Carolina plays at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams here in Raleigh and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Lightning v. Panthers +119 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NHL First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning got past the Panthers on a late goal from Brayden Point in Sunday's thrilling series-opener between these in-state rivals. I look for Florida to answer back with a victory on Tuesday night. The Panthers know just how difficult it would be to take four of the next five games should they fall into an 0-2 series hole on Tuesday. After all, Tampa Bay has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series. The Panthers should remain confident here, however, noting that they've held their own against the Bolts this season, going 5-4 in nine meetings. With a win here on Tuesday, the Panthers would even up the series here in Sunrise over the last three seasons at five wins apiece. Note that Tampa Bay checks into this game having gone 0-4 when playing on the road off a one-goal road victory this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals while allowing 4.8 goals per game in that situation. In fact, the Lightning are just 19-23 when coming off a one-goal win regardless of the location over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Panthers have gone 14-3 after giving up four goals or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. They also check in a perfect 8-0 this season after a game where both teams scored at least four goals, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals while averaging 4.3 goals per game in that situation. At 20-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game, I look for the Panthers to come up with a big effort to even this series on Tuesday night. Take Florida (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -133 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. This would be a big spot for the Penguins at the best of times but when you consider they were swept by the Islanders in the opening round of the playoffs just two years ago, perhaps even more importance will be placed on getting the victory here. Sunday's series-opener obviously could have gone either way. Credit the Isles for sticking with it and scoring the overtime winner after coughing up a short-lived 3-2 lead late in the third period. Here, New York finds itself in a difficult spot having gone just 12-17 on the road this season where it averages only 2.1 goals per game. Even worse, the Isles average just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road off a win this season, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pens own a tremendous 14-1 mark when at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.3 goals per game in that situation. Pittsburgh is 15-2 the last 17 times it has played at home following a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals per game and averaging 4.2 goals per contest itself in that spot. Take Pittsburgh (9*). |
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05-17-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I don't expect the Blues to have an easy time keeping pace with the high-flying Avalanche offense in this series and they're well aware of that fact after losing five of eight regular season meetings, including three of four games played here in Denver. I do look for St. Louis to make a concerted effort to muck things up and knock the Avs off stride here in Monday's series-opener but it may come at the expense of their own offensive production. Note that five of the last eight meetings between these two teams here in Colorado have gone 'under' the total. The Avs wrapped up the regular season scoring 11 goals in consecutive victories over the lowly Kings, who were simply playing out the string. Things are obviously going to be a little tougher here. I will note that St. Louis did take the final two regular season matchups between these two including a 4-1 victory on April 26th (we won with the 'under' in that game), which sets us up well here as the Avs have posted a perfect 6-0 'under' record when revenging a loss by two goals or more this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.0 goals. The Blues check in sporting a 7-19 o/u record when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 4.9 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -179 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Nashville went on an incredible run from the middle of March on to earn a playoff spot but what is its reward? A date with the first-place Hurricanes in the opening round. As I noted in my playoff preview article, home ice is going to mean something in this series as the Hurricanes check in 20-8 in Raleigh this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. While Nashville went 18-10 on home ice during the regular season, it was just 13-15 on the road, allowing 3.1 goals per game in the process. The Preds have had little recent success here in Raleigh, dropping five of the last six meetings in this series. While Nashville did close out the regular season with consecutive victories over the Canes, those both came at home, and Carolina had essentially already checked out on the regular season. Note that Nashville is now in a poor position, having gone 10-22 when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Here, I expect to see a much different Canes squad, one that will be eager to get this postseason off to a positive start after such a disappointing early exit at the hands of the Bruins last year. While we're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back Carolina here, I believe it could be even higher. Take Carolina (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Vegas at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the most recent meeting between these two teams but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' in this spot. While the Golden Knights are heavily favored to win this series I don't expect the Wild to back down one bit as the series opens in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. Note that Minnesota has actually taken four of the last seven meetings here at T-Mobile Arena and checks in a perfect 7-0, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Wild revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 with the Knights playing just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with an average total of 7.4 goals in that spot. The Knights have of course been dominant at home this season, skating to a 21-7 record while averaging 3.5 goals per game with the 'over' cashing at a 16-12 clip. After a very brief scoring lull in early April, the Knights went on a tear down the stretch, scoring four goals or more in 11 of their final 16 regular season games. Likewise, the Wild also picked up the pace offensively down the stretch, producing four goals or more in 10 of their last 14 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-15-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. 6's and even 6.5's have been commonplace in Capitals games this season but we're dealing with a lower total here in Saturday's playoff opener against the Bruins. Of course, we just saw these two teams skate to a very low-scoring 2-1 contest earlier this week on this same ice, but that result can essentially be thrown to the wayside as neither team iced a true NHL roster in what was a 'meaningless' game. Prior to that, the 'over' had cashed in four of the last six matchups between these two teams in Washington. The Bruins figured things out offensively down the stretch, displaying amazing consistency, scoring three goals or more in eight straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall prior to Tuesday's 2-1 loss against the Caps. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-7 with the Caps coming off an 'under' result this season, with those games totaling an average of 6.6 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 15-6 with the Caps coming off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-14-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen some wild, high-scoring games in so-called 'meaningless' games here in the final stretch of the regular season and with the Leafs and Jets both capable of stuffing the scoresheet most are anticipating a similar result here. I'll go the other way and call for both teams to work on cleaning things up in Friday's regular season finale. All indications are that the goaltending matchup will featuring Jack Campbell and Connor Hellebuyck - the two teams' likely playoff starters as well. Frederik Andersen returned after an extended absence for the Leafs on Wednesday and struggled, allowing four goals in a loss to the Senators. Of course, he wasn't given a great deal of help in that game either. I do look for Toronto to tighten things up here, noting that it checks in having allowed just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. The Jets have struggled to find offensive consistency since losing Nik Ehlers for the season. While they're coming off a five-goal outburst against the weary Canucks two nights ago, they've scored three goals or less in nine of their last 11 games overall. On a positive note, they have allowed three goals or less in four of their last five games. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six meetings between these two teams here in Winnipeg. The 'under' checks in 14-7 with the Leafs coming off two wins in their last three games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 5.6 goals and 16-8 with the Leafs having scored three goals or more in consecutive games this season, also resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Canucks +1.5 v. Flames | 1-4 | Loss | -180 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won by fading the Canucks last time out as they suffered a 5-0 wipeout at the hands of the Jets in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. Here, I'll switch gears and back Vancouver with an insurance goal as it continues its somewhat tedious stretch to the finish line on Thursday night in Calgary. Since dropping the first three meetings in lopsided fashion this season, the Canucks have answered back going 2-1 in their last three matchups with the Flames, with the lone defeat coming by a single goal. Here, we find the Canucks having gone 18-12 following a shutout loss under the guidance of head coach Travis Green, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Calgary, meanwhile, checks in just 7-16 when coming off a win by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. The Flames are also a miserable 3-10 after scoring four goals or more in their previous game this season, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Neither team has much to play for at this point and I believe we're getting a reasonable price to back the Canucks with an extra goal in our back pocket. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'under' in this matchup last night as the Avs poured it on early and cruised to a 6-0 victory, eclipsing the total by a half-goal. I'll go back to the well here, however, as I do expect the Kings to show some pride off an embarrassing loss and playing their regular season finale. Note that the Kings have allowed just 2.1 goals per game after losing their last game by three goals or more this season. Of course, the Avs are locked in defensively right now, having allowed two goals or less in four consecutive games, with three of those coming against the Kings. There's still reason for them to go all out here as they look to secure top spot in the West Division and draw an easier first round matchup against St. Louis (instead of Minnesota). With that being said, they will continue to be cautious with Nathan MacKinnon as he is expected to miss this game due to an undisclosed injury. Note that the 'under' is 20-8 with the Kings playing on the road revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. Despite last night's 'over' result, the 'under' remains 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series here in Colorado and nine of the last 13 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Wild v. Blues +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We can take advantage of a 'wrong team being favored' situation here in my opinion (at the time of writing anyway) as we're able to grab an insurance run with the enigmatic Blues on home ice in a spot where I do expect them to play well. Note that for as inconsistent as St. Louis has been, it does check in 14-2 over its last 16 games when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line. I've generally preferred to back the Blues off a win under head coach Craig Berube as they've fared much better in that spot than trying to regroup off a loss. Note that St. Louis is 44-24 the last 68 times it has come off a win, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition 0.8 goals on average. Better still, the Blues are 23-9 when coming off a one-goal win over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Minnesota has gone just 1-3 when hitting the road off of consecutive home victories this season, as is the case here. The Wild have allowed a whopping 3.6 goals per game after winning three of their last four games this season, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. The Blues are 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis and have taken eight of the last 13 matchups overall in this series. Also note that four of six meetings this season have been decided by a single goal and of the two that weren't, one was played in Minnesota and the other went St. Louis' way by a 9-1 score. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (9*). |
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05-12-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has ruled this series, cashing in four of the last five meetings in Colorado and nine of the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. The Avs are absolutely locked in right now as they battle for top spot in the West Division - and the entire league. They've allowed two goals or less in three straight games, including consecutive 3-2 victories over the Kings in Los Angeles last week. Note that Colorado is allowing just 2.0 goals per game on home ice this season, where it has gone 19-6. The Kings check in having scored two goals or less in six of their last eight games. The 'under' has cashed in eight of their last 10 contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-17 the last 49 times the Kings have played on the road after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 25-12 with the Kings heading on the road following two or more straight home games over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of only 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have given up just 2.2 goals per game after winning three of their last four games this season, with the 'under' going 15-7 in that spot with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Colorado has also posted a 10-22 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal win over the last two seasons. As much as the Kings would like to play spoiler here, they've managed to score just one goal in two previous games in Colorado this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Monday's matchup between these two teams found its way 'over' the total as the Oilers prevailed 4-3 in overtime. That marked Edmonton's third straight 'over' result which is worth mentioning as it hasn't posted more than three consecutive 'overs' since a five-game streak back in the last week of January. While the Oilers are known for their offense, they can play some defense as well, having allowed three goals or less in eight of their last nine games overall. The Canadiens have scored three goals or less in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall and average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. While they would certainly like to right the ship here off of four consecutive losses, that hasn't been a favorable spot for them in recent years, averaging just 2.5 goals per game while going 4-10 in that situation over the last two seasons. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Oilers playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that situation totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 11-3 clip with Edmonton playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with an average total of just 4.9 goals in that spot. For Montreal's part, it has posted a 9-17 o/u record when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 5.4 goals. The Habs have done a fairly solid job containing the Oilers offense in eight previous meetings this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings in Montreal and 7-5 in the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's meeting between these two teams got off to a fast start with three goals in the first period but fizzled from there as Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko stood on his head turning aside 39 of 40 shots in a 3-1 Vancouver victory. The Jets are struggling mightily right now but I do expect them to display some push-back here tonight and they should catch a break with Braden Holtby likely to get the nod in goal for Vancouver (the Canucks have yet to give a goaltender consecutive starts in a back-to-back spot this season). Of course, the veteran Holtby has struggled this season with a GAA well north of three and a save percentage under .900. We've seen the Canucks score three goals or more in three straight games and eight of 13 contests since returning to the ice following a long Covid-induced layoff last month. The 'over' checks in 18-8 with the Jets coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-11 with the Canucks following a game where four total goals or less were scored, with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. We've seen the Canucks run out of gas defensively on long road trips in recent years, allowing 4.0 goals per game when playing a fourth consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 6.5 total goals on average. While the 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, it's certainly worth noting that we've seen a number of 6's and 6.5's over that stretch. We're dealing with a more reasonable total here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Stars -130 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blackhawks got the better of the Stars in a somewhat meaningless affair last night in Chicago but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas didn't quit, outshooting the Blackhawks by a wide margin of 39-25. I look for the Stars to wrap up an otherwise disappointing season with a victory on Monday night. It's easy to forget that the Stars reached the Stanley Cup Final in the Edmonton bubble last fall. While the 2021 campaign has certainly not gone their way, the same could be said for the Blackhawks. Here, Dallas is set up well, having gone 20-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, allowing just 2.5 goals per game in that situation. The Blackhawks check in a miserable 2-9 at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Worse still, Chicago is 0-6 when at home off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last three seasons, allowing a whopping 5.2 goals per game and outscored by 2.7 goals on average in that situation. While they have nothing but pride to play for, the Stars have generally done a good job of tightening things up in similar situations, allowing just 2.1 goals per game off a division loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We're likely only seeing a 5.5 here due to the fact that both teams are coming off 'over' results on Saturday and have generally been trending in that direction over the last week or so. I'm not anticipating a 'high-event' game on Monday night as the Isles wrap up their regular season schedule in Boston. New York snapped its three-game losing streak with a 5-1 victory over New Jersey on Saturday (we won with the Isles) but has still scored three goals or less in seven of its last nine games overall and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. Boston has scored exactly four goals in back-to-back games and that plays into our favor here, noting that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 after the B's have put up four goals or more in consecutive games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.4 goals. The 'under' also checks in 8-2 with the Bruins playing at home following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Isles have posted a 1-7 o/u mark when heading on the road following a home game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip with the Isles coming off a victory by four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Boston and eight of their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Senators v. Flames UNDER 6 | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Calgary at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in four straight games involving the Flames and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday in Calgary. The Flames have gone 6-5 over their last 11 games, allowing four goals or less in all 11 of those contests and two goals or less in eight of those games. Offensively, Calgary has scored a grand total of just five goals over its last four games and faces a Sens squad that has played better defensively of late, giving up three goals or less in six straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. While the Sens did score four goals in last night's victory in Winnipeg, they check in averaging only 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. I don't see this as a peak performance spot for Ottawa here, also noting that Calgary allows only 2.4 goals per game after giving up four or more goals over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Senators v. Flames -190 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Ottawa at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. While both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point, I believe the spot favors the Flames as they look to bounce back from a shutout loss against the Jets last time out and aim to revenge four consecutive losses against the Senators, including a 4-2 loss here in Calgary in their most recent meeting on April 19th. Note that Calgary is a perfect 6-0 when revenging consecutive losses in which their opponent scored at least three goals this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. They're also 45-24 after giving up four goals or more in their last game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. While the Sens are certainly playing some of their best hockey right now, they're still just 9-18 on the road this season where they allow right around four goals per game. The Flames check in having gone 6-5 over their last 11 games, giving up two goals or less in eight of those contests. Despite dropping the last meeting here, they've won three of the last five matchups between these two teams in Calgary. Take Calgary (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Ducks v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Wild skated to a 4-3 overtime victory. The Ducks set the tone for that one with an early goal in the game's first eight minutes but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.7 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Ducks coming off an 'over' result this season. They average just 1.7 goals per game in that spot with an average total of only 4.9 goals. On a positive note, Anaheim does check in allowing just 1.6 goals per game when playing on the road after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up nine times with those games averaging only 3.8 total goals. The Wild have performed well offensively in recent weeks but off six consecutive one-goal games - with the last two decided in overtime - I certainly feel a letdown could be in order here. Minnesota would like nothing more than to jump ahead early and manage the game the rest of the way, noting that it has allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Despite last night's result, the 'under' has still cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series here in Minnesota and eight of the last 13 matchups overall over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Devils v. Islanders -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Islanders have picked a bad time to start slumping, losers of three games in a row against non-playoff opponents in the Sabres and Devils. It hasn't been for lack of trying as they've fired 81 shots on goal over the last two games. Here, I look for the Isles to finally get back in the win column as they fall in a positive situation having gone 25-12 after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Isles head coach Barry Trotz has a way of getting his teams back up after a tough stretch, with his teams having gone 20-5 the last 25 times they've come off consecutive losses against division opponents, as is the case here. Note that the Devils have allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. New Jersey's victory on Thursday night was just their second in their last six tries over the last three seasons here on Long Island. Look for the Isles to get back on track here before a tough regular season finale on the road against the Bruins. Take New York (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' and the Sharks on the puck-line in their 3-2 upset victory over the Avalanche on home ice two nights ago. Here, I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as defense has been optional in this series so far this season. The 'over' has actually cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings in this series, including three of the last five here in San Jose. We've seen four of six meetings in this series this season reach at least seven total goals. The Coyotes check in off three straight losses, scoring exactly two goals in each game. They should be able to improve on that production here, however, noting that they average 3.6 goals per game when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons and face a Sharks squad that has allowed 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. San Jose has scored at least four goals in three of its last six contests, averaging 3.3 goals per game over that stretch. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the Sharks coming off a one-goal victory on home ice, with those contests totaling an average of 6.9 goals. Arizona has struggled to keep the puck out of its net on the road all season, allowing an average of 3.3 goals per game. With both teams simply playing out the string at this point and both surprisingly healthy up front at this late stage of the season, I'm anticipating some offensive fireworks on Friday night in Silicon Valley. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over St. Louis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams will be heading to the postseason but the Knights have a little more to play for in this two-game set as they try to lock up home ice advantage throughout with an outside shot at grabbing the league's top overall seed. They'll also be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss in St. Louis back on April 7th (the Knights outshot the Blues 51-35 in that game). Note that Vegas has gone an incredible 17-2 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. The Knights are a terrific positive momentum play here having gone 27-7 all-time off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. It's the opposite story for the Blues as they limp to Las Vegas off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Ducks. Note that St. Louis has gone a miserable 11-21 when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. The Blues also check in 3-8 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, allowing 3.2 goals per game in that spot. While we have seen a few defensive lapses from the Knights lately, those have been few and far between here at home, where they allow just 2.2 goals per game on the season. Take Vegas (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Stars v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Friday. It's desperation time for the Stars even if their odds of overtaking the fourth-place Predators in the Central Division are slim with only three games left on their schedule. After an ugly 6-2 loss here in Tampa two nights ago I do expect them to put up more of a fight on Friday. Note that Dallas has allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road off a loss by four goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons. The problem is they've managed to score just 2.0 goals per game themselves in that situation, with the 'under' cashing at a perfect 7-0 clip. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Stars coming off consecutive games in which they gave up three goals or more this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. While the Lightning are known for their offense, outbursts like we saw from them two nights ago have been few and far between recently as they've scored three goals or less in 18 of their last 22 games overall. Of course, they've been stout defensively here at home all season, allowing just 2.2 goals per game. In three home matchups against the Stars they've given up a grand total of just two goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Devils v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders are coming off consecutive stunning losses against the lowly Sabres in Buffalo but find themselves well-positioned to bounce back at home on Thursday night. While my first look would generally be to the 'under' with New York coming off consecutive losses, here I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair against the Devils. Note that New York is averaging a whopping 5.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up seven times and has resulted in an average total of 6.8 goals. Keep in mind, the Isles rested their top gun Mat Barzal two nights ago in Buffalo but I would expect him to be back in the lineup tonight. He is of course the team's leading point scorer by a longshot this season. The Devils have been a much higher-scoring team on the road this season with the 'over' going 15-9-1 with those games averaging 6.4 total goals. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.4 goals per game when heading on the road following two or more consecutive home games this season. The Devils have been scoring with some consistency of late, putting up three goals or more in eight of their last 11 games and four or more in four of their last five. They've had to play a more wide-open style with their young stud defenseman Ty Smith sidelined. He re-aggravated an injury on Monday and could be shut down for the remainder of the season. While a key offensive contributor as well, Smith has been steadying force in the defensive zone for the Devils this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Carolina has cruised to consecutive wins over the Blackhawks with both games going 'over' the total. Here on Thursday, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts with a lower-scoring affair. Note that we've seen the Canes suffer a bit of a lull in similar situations, having averaged just 2.4 goals per game when coming off consecutive victories by two goals or more over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of just 5.2 goals on the last 16 occasions it has come up. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season and have been fortunate to score five goals in the first two games of this three-game set, noting that the Canes have been incredibly stout defensively at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per contest. I'm not convinced we see a real high-energy game here from either team as both teams wind down the regular season - the Blackhawks looking forward to hitting the golf course and the Canes preparing for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. We've seen similar situations this season where two teams play one another three times or more in the same location and by the end of the stretch, the intensity tends to wane. I expect a similar story to unfold in a potentially low-event contest on Thursday in Raleigh. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive emotional losses against the Capitals and I really question how much they have left in the tank for this one, playing their third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs. The Bruins will be looking to tighten things up after blowing a third period lead in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Devils last time out. Note that the B's have been stout defensively here at home this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per game. Already in a foul mood following the loss in New Jersey, Boston will also be seeking revenge after dropping its last matchup with the Rangers by a 4-0 score here on home ice back on March 13th. Note that the 'under' has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five here at TD Garden. The Rangers were completely distracted by the Tom Wilson fiasco over the last two games, allowing a whopping 10 goals in consecutive losses to the Caps. Note that prior to those two contests, New York had held 11 of its last 13 opponents to three goals or less. Offensively, the Rangers will without question missing Artemi Panarin - keeping in mind, this is a team that has already been held to three goals or less in five straight games, averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that stretch. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Rangers coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. We have seen the Rangers tighten things up off a home loss this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Kings v. Coyotes -130 | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams simply playing out the string at this point I like the Coyotes to bounce back on home ice following a 3-2 loss to the Kings two nights ago. That marked the 'Yotes second straight loss but they haven't lost more than two in a row since dropping five straight games from April 7th to 14th. Of course, all five of those losses came on the road at the end of a long nine-game trek. Prior to that, you would have to go back to March 10th to 18th to find the last time Arizona lost more than two straight games - again, that five-game skid came on the road. The Coyotes are much better-positioned to bounce back here at home, having gone a perfect 6-0 when playing at home following consecutive losses this season, outscoring opponents by 1.7 goals per game in that situation. They're also 21-11 when playing at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Kings check in a miserable 1-10 when coming off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 2.1 goals in that situation. The fact that Los Angeles is 5-2 in its last seven games played here in Arizona is playing pretty heavy in the betting marketplace and I think it explains why this price is as short as it is. However, I do expect the Coyotes to put forth a strong performance in what is their home finale. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Avalanche v. Sharks +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avs have now posted three straight wins over the Sharks with the last two coming by single-goal margins. The Sharks know they can skate with the Avs and have actually taken six of the last 10 meetings between these two teams here in San Jose. I'm anticipating another tightly-contested affair on Wednesday night as the Avs and Sharks wrap up a four-game set. Note that Colorado finds itself in what has been a difficult spot this season as it has gone 1-5 when playing on the road off a road win in which it scored at least four games this season. Somewhat inexplicably, the Avs have given up 5.0 goals per game and been outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks check in having gone 10-5 after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. While the Sharks are simply playing out the string at this point, they should be eager to turn things around in the midst of a five-game homestand to wrap up the season. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Jets +109 v. Flames | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Jets on Monday as they fell by a 2-1 score in Ottawa in a game they dominated most of the way. There's more upside than first appears with Winnipeg here in my opinion as they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal two games back before generating plenty of good scoring opportunities against the Sens on Monday. A breakout is certainly coming and I want to be behind the Jets when it happens. This is a fine spot to project that happening with the Flames having gone 5-11 when coming off consecutive road games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. The Jets are 7-1 when coming off a one-goal loss this season, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Also note that the Jets have gone 12-3 when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that spot. The Flames do check in having won three of their last five games overall but that's probably about as much as we could expect from them at this point. As bad as things have gone for the Jets lately, they're still going to be heading to the playoffs and can hang their hat on a solid 16-11 road record, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals this season. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Jets on Monday night as they suffered a 2-1 loss in Ottawa - their seventh consecutive loss. We probably deserved a better fate as Winnipeg dominated possession and scoring chances in a game where they just as easily could have had four or five goals were it not for the exploits of Sens 22-year old goaltender Filip Gustavsson. We've certainly seen signs of the Jets offense breaking out as two games back they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal. Now we find Winnipeg averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen the 'over' go 9-2 with the Jets coming off a game where four goals or less were scored, with an average total of 7.1 goals in those contests. Meanwhile, the Flames check in off a 4-1 loss against the rival Oilers on Saturday. In spite of that, they have been playing better hockey lately, scoring three goals or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 over that stretch. Here, we find the Flames in a situation where the 'over' has gone 11-2 over the last three seasons, when they revenge a home loss by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals. We've seen the Jets bounce back from poor offensive performances this season, but it's often come at the expense of their own defensively play as they've allowed 3.8 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Finally, note that the 'over' checks in 4-3 in this matchup so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild have now seen the 'over' cash in six straight games but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. This one sets up well as a potentially low-scoring game following Monday's wild (no pun intended) 6-5 result. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Knights have played on the road following a road game where both teams scored at least three goals, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've certainly seen Vegas tighten things up after a poor defensive showing in recent years as it has given up just 2.0 goals per game with the 'under' going 13-5 with an average total of just 4.6 goals when playing on the road after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. It's a similar story for the Wild as they've given up just 1.5 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Oilers took the first game in this two-game set in Vancouver by a 5-3 score last night. The Canucks have now dropped five games in a row although four of those five losses came on the road. 12 of their 19 victories have come on home ice this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals. Note that Edmonton checks in 0-5 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canucks have gone 16-9 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.9 goals in that spot. As well as the Oilers have been playing, they haven't strung together three consecutive victories since March 17th to 20th. With this the second game of four in a row against Edmonton, look for the Canucks to show some push back on Tuesday night. We'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Ducks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blues have played 14 consecutive games against teams in the West Division playoff race so a letdown could certainly be in order here on Monday as they return home from Minnesota to host the lowly Ducks. With that being said, I'm not about to back Anaheim in this one. Instead, I'll go with the 'under' as I'm anticipating a relatively low-event contest on Monday night in St. Louis. The Ducks check in off a rare six-goal outburst in a win over the Kings on Saturday. Note that prior to that game, Anaheim had scored a grand total of nine goals over its last seven games. The 'under' has gone 24-9 with the Ducks coming off a win by two goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Also note that the Ducks average a miserable 1.6 goals per game after winning two of their last three games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Blues check in sporting a 3-12 o/u mark when playing at home after consecutive games where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.7 goals. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Blackhawks 5-4 loss to the Panthers on Saturday - a game that saw seven goals scored in the final 25 minutes. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Blackhawks travel to Carolina to face the Hurricanes. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with Chicago coming off six or seven losses in its last eight games this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.9 goals. It's also interesting to note that the Blackhawks have allowed just 2.1 goals per game the last eight times they've come off three straight contests where seven or more total goals were scored, with those games averaging just 5.4 total goals. The Canes have posted an 8-15-2 o/u record on home ice this season, where they've allowed just 2.0 goals per game. Carolina has won three straight meetings with Chicago here in Raleigh, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Jets -142 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -142 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets are reeling after six consecutive losses but have had a couple of days off to regroup before facing the Senators in Ottawa on Monday night. We won with the Jets in their last matchup with the Sens on April 14th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that Winnipeg has taken four of the last six meetings here in Ottawa. The Senators have been playing some of their best hockey of the season, winners of six of their last nine games overall. Note that the Sens are averaging just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a same season loss against an opponent here in 2021, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are 8-1 coming off a road loss this season, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals per game in that spot. They're 11-3, averaging 3.9 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons. The Jets are dealing with the absence of Nik Ehlers as he's sidelined for the season with a shoulder injury but it's not as if he's the heart and soul of the team. This is an experienced, well-coached team and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back with a much-needed victory on Monday night. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams two nights ago in Chicago as the Panthers rallied to secure a 4-3 overtime victory. Of course, that game would have stayed 'under' the total were it not for Florida tying things up at three goals apiece with 18 seconds remaining in the third period. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 the last eight times the Panthers have come off consecutive games where both teams scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.1 goals. With the loss on Thursday, the Blackhawks now check in having posted an 8-1 'under' record after dropping five or six of their last seven games this season, with that spot producing just 4.4 total goals on average. We've seen the Blackhawks tighten things up defensively in similar situations this season, allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing at home off a one-goal loss. While the Panthers are certainly known for their offense, they actually average only 1.2 goals per game after winning six or seven of their last eight contests this season, as is the case here. On the flip side, they're allowing just 2.4 goals per game after giving up three or more goals in three consecutive games this season. Prior to Thursday's result, the last two meetings between these two teams here in Chicago had totaled five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams with the Blues prevailing in both. That actually sets us up for a low-scoring affair on Saturday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 15-4 with the Wild coming off consecutive games totaling seven goals or more over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 12-2 in the same situation with the Blues over the last two seasons with an average total of 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 16-5 the last 21 times the Blues have played on the road off two or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 5.0 goals. The Wild will of course be out for revenge here after dropping four straight meetings in this series. The 'under' is 21-7 the last 28 times the Wild have been in a quadruple-revenge situation with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. There's reason to believe the Wild can tighten things up here, noting that they allow just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Prior to scoring at least four goals in each of their last four games the Blues had been held to three goals or less in 12 of their last 13 contests. Finally, keep in mind the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams two nights ago as the Bruins cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'under' has still cashed in five of the last seven meetings here at TD Garden and I look for that trend to continue on Saturday afternoon. After a brief surge, the Sabres offense has gone back in the tank, scoring a grand total of six goals during its current three-game slide. The Sabres average just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season and don't figure to break through against a Bruins squad that allows just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home off a home victory this season. The 'under' has gone 8-2 in that situation with an average total of just 4.5 goals scored. Also note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Sabres coming off three straight losses by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing just 4.9 total goals on average. It's interesting to note that the Bruins average just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season - a situation that has come up 10 times previously and produced an average total of only 4.6 goals. The Bruins enter this contest having allowed two goals or less in five of their last six games and three goals or less in nine of their last 10 contests. Take the under (9*). |
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04-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have trended to the 'over' this season but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they square off in the desert on Friday night. Vegas has scored exactly five goals in three straight games and has put up four or more goals in seven of its last eight contests overall. I certainly don't feel that level of offensive success is sustainable. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 with the Knights coming off three consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.4 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 30-17 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive 'over' results, with that spot averaging 5.3 total goals. Better still, the 'under' is 14-4 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive games in which they allowed four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That situation has led to an average total of just 4.6 goals with Arizona allowing only 2.2 goals per game. Note that the Coyotes are allowing just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home off two or more straight losses this season. The Knights have of course been incredibly stout defensively on the road this season, where they allow just 2.1 goals per contest. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series here in Arizona. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 0-3 | Win | 101 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Sharks have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last four games - their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total in a 4-0 loss at the hands of the Avalanche right here in Colorado. The Sharks check in having scored 13 goals over the course of a three-game homestand. The road hasn't been nearly as kind as they average just 2.7 goals per game away from home this season. Prior to their last three games they had been held to two goals or less in seven straight contests. The Avalanche should be in a foul mood after dropping three straight games at the tail-end of their most recent road trip that included four straight games in in St. Louis. After giving up a whopping 14 goals over their last three games I would certainly look for them to tighten the screws a little bit here. Mikko Rantanen could return from the Covid list on Friday which would obviously give the Avs a boost, but it remains to be seen how much he can contribute in his first game back after an extended layoff. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season with those contests totaling just 4.3 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Canucks 6-3 loss in Ottawa last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go the other way and back the 'under' as they continue their road trip in Toronto on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of two games played in Vancouver last week, as the Canucks returned to the ice following a long layoff following a Covid outbreak and stunningly defeated the Leafs in consecutive games. Since then, Vancouver has gone 1-3 in four games against the Senators, scoring just eight goals in those four contests. Scoring will likely continue to be an issue on this trip as the Leafs are allowing just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season and will certainly be up for this rematch with Vancouver. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Leafs seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those games totaling just 4.6 goals on average. Toronto has allowed just 2.3 goals per game on average when in a revenge situation this season. Of course, it's been a struggle at the best of times for the Canucks when playing on the road this season, where they average just 2.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings here in Toronto and nine of the last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Islanders +114 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Week. My selection is on the Islanders over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders are having a tough time finding an offensive spark right now, having scored just three goals during a three-game losing streak - with all of those losses coming against the Capitals. They'll be happy to face a different team here tonight, especially the rival Rangers here at Madison Square Garden where they've taken four of the last seven meetings. While the Rangers have won three games in a row and seven of their last nine overall, it's important to consider the level of opposition they've faced. Those nine games including games against the Devils (four), Islanders, Flyers (two) and Sabres (two). Outside of the Isles those other three are all non-playoff teams and could be considered among the worst defensive teams in the league. Here, the Rangers are in a tough spot having gone 3-10 the last 13 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Isles won't be confused for an offensive juggernaut any time soon, they are in a favorable situation here having averaged 4.0 goals per game the last eight times they've come off a one-goal loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Under the guidance of head coach Barry Trotz, the Isles have gone 14-7 the last 21 times they've played on the road after losing three of their last four games overall, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the David Quinn-coached rangers are just 18-30 when coming off a win over a division opponent, giving up 3.4 goals per game in that spot. Take the Islanders (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago as the Sharks snapped their long losing streak with a 6-4 win on home ice. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as the two teams wrap up a two-game set in San Jose. The Coyotes have scored four goals in each of their last two games but I'm not sure that level of production is sustainable given they had managed three goals or less in their six previous contests. Prior to potting six goals on Monday, the Sharks had been held to three goals or less in eight consecutive games. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-6 with the Sharks playing at home after losing four of their last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen San Jose post a 15-33 o/u mark when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, with the Sharks averaging just 2.4 goals per game in that spot. Arizona checks in allowing just 2.1 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season, as is the case here, with that situation totaling just 5.1 goals on average. On the flip side, the Coyotes average just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -204 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not often I'll make a play in this price range but I actually feel the price could be even higher with the Avs grabbing a goal-and-a-half in Las Vegas on Wednesday night. Colorado is of course coming off consecutive losses in St. Louis including an ugly 4-1 setback on Monday. The Avs already appeared to have one foot on the plane after falling behind big in that one, perhaps rightfully so as they were winding down a long four-game set against the Blues. I look for a much sharper effort from the Avs here, noting they've gone 15-5 when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. We've also seen the Avs go 25-8 the last 33 times they've been seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals per game in that spot. Vegas enters this game riding a nine-game winning streak but it has done so by beating up on the likes of Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose - three non-playoff teams - over its last eight contests. Note that Colorado has held its own here in Vegas, going 4-3 over the last seven meetings. Take Colorado +1.5 goals (9*). |
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04-28-21 | Canucks v. Senators OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Ottawa at 5:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair on Monday night as the Senators skated to a 2-1 victory in the third straight meeting between them. The 'under' has now cashed in each of the last three meetings here in Ottawa but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' in this early start matchup on Wednesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Canucks having lost two of their last three games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 13-5 the last 18 times the Canucks have come off a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with that spot resulting in an average total of 7.1 goals. While the Senators aren't going to blow the doors off of anyone offensively, they do check in playing fairly consistent hockey in that regard, having scored an average of 3.25 goals per game over their last eight games. Take the over (10*). |