Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#791 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tech enters this game with an 0-4 Big 12 record and this is pretty much a do or die spot for the Red Raiders. They are also coming off their worst performance of the season getting rolled @ Iowa State on Tuesday after playing 3 down to the wire games in conference play prior to that. Tech’s first 3 losses were by 6 points @ TCU (Red Raiders led that game by 13), by 3 points @ Kansas, and in OT vs Oklahoma when 2 of their key players were out. The Raiders have 6 losses on the season, all to teams ranked in the top 30 (Kansas, Ohio St, Creighton, Iowa St, Oklahoma, and TCU) and if we throw out their only terrible performance vs ISU, their average loss was by 6 points. We expect a huge effort after playing terrible in their most previous game. Texas is overvalued right now. They are off a tight 4 point win at home vs TCU, a game in which the Frogs led 40-22 and blew it. The Horns lost by 13 at home to KSU and their other 2 Big 12 wins were by 1 point vs Oklahoma and by 10 vs Oklahoma State in a game Texas actually trailed with 6 minutes left. The Horns are still figuring things out after their head coach Chris Beard was fired last week. Not an ideal situation. The Red Raiders are an ideal team to cover as a large dog because they play very good defense (36th in adjusted efficiency), they are a good shooting team (22nd in eFG%) and they get to the foul line a lot with 20% of their points coming from the stripe (74th most nationally). Texas Tech has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this series and the Horns lone win during that stretch was by 1 point. The Red Raiders were +4 here last year and won outright now we’re getting nearly double digits in a must win spot. Take the points. |
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01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -6.5 over Providence, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We’re selling Providence high right now. We don’t think they are as good as their 14-3 overall record, 6-0 in the Big East. There is a reason that Creighton, who is 9-8 overall and 3-3 in the Big East, is the favorite here and not a light one for that matter. The Friars lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and were thought to be a middle of the pack at best Big East team this season. They’ve overachieved to say the least. Creighton is the opposite. They returned many of their key players from a team that beat San Diego State in the Big Dance and then nearly knocked off eventually National Champion Kansas. The Jays were picked by many as the best team in the Big East this season. They’ve underachieved however some of that had to do with injuries. Their starting center Kalkbrenner, who leads Creighton in scoring & rebounding, missed 3 games due to illness and they lost all of those games. They’ve also played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation thus far so they are more than prepared for Big East play moving forward. The Friars score over 23% of their points from the FT line which is 13th most nationally. They’ve made 65 more FT’s than their opponents in their 6 league games thus far and when half of their conference games have been decided by 4 points or less or in OT, that make a gigantic difference. Problem for them here is, they are on the road so most likely won’t get favorable calls, and Creighton fouls at the 4th lowest rate in the country with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. The Blue Jays have a +19 PPG margin at home this season and they are shooting around 49% here. They are in a must win spot at home as they cannot afford to fall further behind. Now at full strength we like Creighton to win and cover this one. |
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01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron -12.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 7 PM ET - Total mismatch here. EMU is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 318th by KenPom) and defensively they cannot stop anyone. The Eagles are allowing 80 PPG (357th out of 363 teams) and their opponents are making 49% of their shots vs this sieve of a defense (358th). That will be an issue in this game vs an Akron team that is a perfect 8-0 and averaging 78 PPG at home this season. The Zips are 10-6 on the year, after finishing 24-10 last season and losing a close game to UCLA in the NCAA tourney. Five of their six losses have come vs top 100 teams which is understandable. This will be the 4th game this season where Akron has faced a team ranked outside the top 300 and their margins of victory in those games were 13, 25, and 32 points. EMU is 4-12 on the season and all 4 of their wins have ranked outside the top 210. Akron will be the 2nd highest rated team EMU has faced since November 15th when they were creamed by Bradley 89-61. The only other top 200 team they’ve faced since then was Florida Atlantic and the Eagles lost that game by 28 points. The Zips play very solid defense (106th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they allow just 57 PPG at home this season. EMU is not a very good shooting team and they rely on getting points at the FT line with 21% of their points coming from the stripe. Problem is, Akron fouls very infrequently. The Zips have won 34 of their last 38 home games and they’ve won 9 in a row here vs EMU. Lay it. |
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01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU +7 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Zags continue to be overvalued in the market based on past perception. This team is nowhere near the level they were over the last few seasons. Because of that false perception, the oddsmakers have been off on this team and they have a terrible 4-12 ATS record. They’ve played 3 true road games this year and haven’t covered any of those – 0-3 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 9.5 PPG. This is not an ideal spot for Gonzaga as they’ll be playing their 3rd consecutive road game in the span of a week. They won their first 2 in this 3 game trip beating San Francisco by 2 points and Santa Clara by 5 points (both non-covers). The were quite lucky to come away with wins in those team games as they trailed by 12 @ SF and by 14 @ Santa Clara while their largest leads in those 2 games were 3 & 6 points respectively. We think their luck runs out here. BYU struggled early in the season with a 5-5 record after 10 games but they’ve since hit their stride winning 8 of their last 9 games. Defensively BYU has been very good ranking 27th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and at home they are allowing only 63 PPG on 40% shooting. The Zags have fallen way off on the defensive end this year after ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 5 of the previous 6 seasons. This year they rank 280th in PPG allowed and 240th in FG% allowed. The Cougars have a 13-6 record but it could be much better as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or less. They also have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball having won 45 of their last 51 here at the Marriott Center. Our numbers have this game going to the wire so we’ll take the generous points. |
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01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska continues to be undervalued in our opinion, especially at home. This team has vastly improved over last season as they currently rank 85th in the KenPom ratings after finishing last season ranked 140th. The Huskers are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT vs Purdue, the highest ranked team in the conference (6th on KenPom). Illinois has been trending down for a month now. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Illini have gone 4-4 over their last 8. They’ve played 2 true road games this season and lost both @ Maryland by 5 and @ Northwestern by 13. They are coming off a nice win at home over Wisconsin on Saturday but that came with a few asterisks. The Badgers were forced to play without their top player, Tyler Wahl, who is recovering from an ankle injury. On top of that, the Illini shot WAY above their season averages in that game making 10 of their 19 three point attempts (53%) when they entered the game making only 32% of their 3’s on the season. Wisconsin was also called for 21 personal fouls leading to +14 points at the FT line for Illinois. In their most recent home game Nebraska was a 4 point dog vs Iowa and won by 16 and their vastly improved defense (44th in adjusted efficiency) held the potent Iowa attack to just 50 points. Now they face an Illinois team that has averaged only 63 PPG on the road, 14 fewer than their season average. The host in this Big 10 series have covered 6 of the last 7 and we give the Huskers a great shot to pull the upset here. Grab the points. |
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01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears. |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game. |
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12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening. |
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12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
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12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points. |
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12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points. |
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12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night. |
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12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one. |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle. |
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11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia |
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11-22-22 | Liberty +4.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#667 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty +4.5 over Northwestern, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - The Flames are coming off an upset loss at home vs Southern Miss on Friday and we like them to bounce back in this neutral site game (Rivera Maya, Mexico) vs Northwestern. It was a game where Liberty came out flat and got way behind before coming back and having a chance late but losing by 4. It was a disappointing performance for a veteran team that may have been peeking ahead to their trip to Mexico. Liberty returns 7 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that won the Atlantic Sun and finished with a record of 22-11. That includes 2-time conference player of the year guard Darrius McGhee (25 PPG) who spurned Power 5 transfer offers to finish out his career with Liberty. Head coach Ritchie McCay has built a very good program @ Liberty after coming over from New Mexico back in 2008. He has led the Flames to 6 consecutive 20 win seasons. In their Hawaii tourney last year, Liberty with basically this same team, beat a very good Northern Iowa team who won the Missouri Valley, lost by 3 vs Stanford (blew a 13 point lead), and lost by 5 vs BYU who finished with a 24-11 record. This team is experience and battle tested. Northwestern steps into this game with a 4-0 record but we think they are overvalued at this point. We have them tabbed for 12th in the Big 10 this year after finishing 7-13 in league play last year. In their most recent game they held off IPFW at home winning by 8 after leading by just 1 points with just over 2:00 remaining in the game. Liberty is a solid shooting team that finished in the top 35 nationally from both inside and outside the arc last year while also making 77% of their FT’s. They’ve gotten off to a little slower start this year but still shooting well ranking 80th in eFG%. We think they’ll give NW big problems in this game and we actually have this game rated dead even. Value on Liberty Tuesday evening. |
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11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 6 PM ET - The Utes are coming off a home loss in a game they were favored so we look for a strong bounce back effort here in Fort Myers. That loss vs Sam Houston State isn’t looking as bad as many may think as SHSU is not a perfect 4-0 on the season and they also have a win @ Oklahoma. Utah returns all 5 starters from last season and they added a few transfers including F Ben Carlson from Wisconsin who will help up front. Georgia Tech is coming off a 12-20 season and while they are 3-0 this year, they haven’t played a team ranked higher than 224th. In that game vs 224th ranked Georgia State, who lost all 5 starters and is projected near the bottom of the Sun Belt, the Yellow Jackets squeaked out a 2 point win. Tech loses their top 2 players from last season, DeVoe and Usher who combined to average over 33 PPG, and they are left with very little experience. In their 3 games thus far the Jackets have shot the ball poorly with an eFG% 42.7% (324th nationally) and those numbers come vs lower level competition. Now they face a Utah defense, that has plenty of size inside and had held their opponents this season to an eFG% of 38.2% which is good for 8th best in the country. The Utes also have a nice size advantage and should control the glass vs a Tech team that has allowed their first 3 opponents to gather nearly 36% of their offensive boards which ranks the Jackets 314th in defensive rebounding. And those numbers came vs teams that are nowhere near the size of Utah. Most projections have Georgia Tech finishing dead last in the ACC after finishing 2nd to last a year ago. We like Utah here. |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL -2 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -2 over Providence, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Miami returns 5 of their top 8 players from a team that made it to the Elite 8 last season. On the other side, Providence must replace all 5 starters from last season and the Friars have played 2 teams ranked outside the top 250 and the one team they played ranked inside the top 200 (Rider at 194th) they struggled with winning by 1 point at home. Miami has also played a weak schedule but they’ve won all of their games by double digits. Despite their weak schedule, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from 3 point land which will be an issue facing a Miami team that scored over 38% of their points from deep (56th nationally) and the Canes shoot it well from beyond the arc (36%). Providence is 3-0 because they’ve shot a whopping 53 more free throws than their first 3 opponents, however, Miami has been very good at not sending teams to the FT line (69th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage at the stripe for the Friars which they are used to. Miami is the better team here and laying under 3 on a neutral gives us value with the Canes. Lay the small number. |
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11-17-22 | Davidson v. College of Charleston -2 | Top | 66-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2 over Davidson, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is part of the Charleston Classic Tournament which is being played on C of C’s home court so this is a home game for them. We were on the Cougars a few nights ago laying 2.5 points at home vs Richmond but lost by a half point when they won by 2 in OT. Now we’re laying less here (currently -1) vs a Davidson team we have power rated lower than Richmond. Ken Pom agrees with us as he has Davidson rated nearly 30 spots lower than Richmond. We like the value on this still underrated Charleston team. In their win vs Richmond earlier this week, the Cougars actually led by double digits for much of the way including a 21 point lead with 14 minutes remaining in the game. It was a game they should have won easily and they’ll learn from blowing that lead and keep their foot on the gas here. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). That will be an issue for depth shy teams and Davidson is one of those as they basically have a 7 man rotation. Another glaring weakness for Davidson is rebounding as they’ve been out boarded in all 3 of their games this season vs VMI, Wright State, AND tiny Guilford College. C of C is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation ranking 58th this season in offensive boards after ranking 10th last year in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities for the Cougars. Their lone loss this season was at #1 North Carolina in a game Charleston led midway through the 2nd half and outrebounded UNC. In Davidson’s lone road game this year, they were down 21 points vs Wright State and had to battle back and picked up a fortunate win in OT. They followed that up with a 4 point win over VMI at home, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. They could easily have 2 losses in their first 3 games under new head coach Matt McKillop who took over for his father after Bob McKillop retired at the end of last season. Tough match up for Davidson here and we’ll take College of Charleston to win at home. |
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11-15-22 | Memphis v. St. Louis -2.5 | Top | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2.5 over Memphis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Billikens have been waiting for this one. Last year they finished with a 23-12 record and one of their worst losses of the season was @ Memphis 90-74. SLU actually attempted 22 more shots in that game but couldn’t hit the broadside making just 31% (Memphis hit 54%) and from beyond the arc only 23% (Memphis made 47%). While St Louis returns 5 players that started at least 16 games last year + they get Perkins back from injury (17 PPG in 2020/21 season), Memphis only has 3 players returning out of the 10 that played double digit minutes in last year’s game vs the Billikens. The Tigers have a number of transfers they are trying to incorporate which will take some time and they’ve only played 1 game so far this season. That was a 9-point win @ Vandy which doesn’t look all that impressive after the Commodores followed that loss up with another home 12-point setback vs Southern Miss who is projected by most to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. St Louis also added a veteran transfer from Missouri, Pickett, who averaged 11 PPG in the SEC last season and has scored 24 in his 2 games for SLU this year. They also have one of the more unheralded point guards in the nation in Yuri Collins who is drawing the attention of NBA scouts. St Louis was banged up last year with their top scorer Perkins on the shelf and a few other key players in and out of the line up and they still finished with a very good record. 8 of their 12 losses last year were by 7 points or less and now they are full strength and an undervalued team early in the season. With the short spread they may need to salt this one away at the FT line late and they can do just that hitting 80% from the stripe as a team this season after 77% a year ago. Huge home game for SLU and we’ll lay it. |
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11-15-22 | San Diego State v. Stanford +5.5 | Top | 74-62 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford +5.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We think this Stanford team is undervalued to start the season. They are 1-1 with a win over Pacific and a loss vs a Wisconsin team that is much better than many think. In their game vs Wisconsin, which was in Milwaukee, the Cardinal were 4 point dogs and now they are getting 5 or 5.5 at home vs San Diego State in this game. We have this one powered to SDSU as a 2 point favored so the value is on Stanford. In their 60-50 loss vs the Badgers, the shooting lines at AmFam Field in Milwaukee (home of the Brewers) were horrible and it showed in the shooting percentages. Stanford shot just 36% and they were 1 of 16 from beyond the arc for 6%! We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit 60% of their shots in the opener vs Pacific. Stanford returns 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year and add one of the top 3 point shooters in the country, Michael Jones, who averaged 12 PPG for Davidson last year. SDSU is very solid and one of the favorites in the MWC but a bit overvalued in our opinion. They just faced BYU, who we have power rated almost the same as Stanford, at home and while the Aztecs won by 8, they trailed for most of the game taking their first lead in the 2nd half with just over 4:00 remaining. The Aztecs had a huge edge at the FT line making 26 freebies to just 10 for BYU. That was a big revenge game for San Diego State after losing to BYU 66-60 last season. Now SDSU makes their first road trip of the season and they might be looking ahead to their trip to Hawaii for the Maui Classic up next. Not a great spot vs a solid team off a loss. Take the points with Stanford at home tonight. |
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11-14-22 | Richmond v. College of Charleston -2.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight. |
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11-09-22 | Lipscomb v. South Dakota -5.5 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
#306630 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Dakota -5.5 over Lipscomb, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota took a loss on Tuesday at Wisconsin 85-59. We think that blowout setback is giving us some value here as our ratings have the Coyotes favored by 7 in this game. SD returns the top backcourt in the Summit League with Perrott-Hunt (15 PPG) and Archambault (14.5 PPG) from a team that went 19-12 last year. They also bring back guard Plitzuweit who sat out last season due to an injury after averaging 19 PPG as a freshman in 2020 and North Dakota transfer Bruns who put up 15 PPG last year and was the Summit’s freshman of the year. This backcourt is loaded. Because of their strong guard play, the Coyotes ranked 22nd nationally last year hitting over 37% of their triples. On Tuesday vs Wisconsin, they were just 2 of 15 from deep for just 13% vs the defensively stout Badgers. They hung fairly well on the boards despite being outsized (-5 rebounds) and only turned the ball over 10 times which is a testament to their solid guard play. Now back at home, South Dakota takes a big step down from a team that won the Big 10 last year (Wisconsin) to Lipscomb who finished 6-10 last season in the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Bisons had some key injury problems last season and will be improved but we feel this is a tough spot for their first game of the season. While SD will own a solid edge in the backcourt, Lipscomb will have an advantage inside with Asadullah patrolling the middle. However, Wisconsin also had a big edge inside and South Dakota did a very solid job of limiting their inside scoring by double teaming the post. The problem was, when they did that, the Badgers hit lights out from beyond the arc making 12 of 26 (46%). We don’t anticipate Lipscomb being that successful shooting from deep on the road in their first game of the season. Lay the rather small number with South Dakota at home. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4 over North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We’ve been on Carolina each of the past 2 games and cashed but feel this is where their run ends. First off the situation for the Tar Heels is really tough. It’s almost as if they just played their National Championship game 48 hours ago beating Duke in the biggest game ever in that storied rivalry. There was such hype and pressure on the players and coaches entering that game and then on top of that an intense back and forth game where no team led by more than 7 points. UNC has played with nearly zero bench and all 5 starters in that game topped 33 minutes. One of their top players Armando Bacot (22 rebounds) injured his ankle in the 2nd half, came back but was still noticeably limping which could be an issue tonight. He will play but the Heels may have to dig deeper in their bench at times tonight to get him a break. Especially since we expect an extremely fast paced game with both teams loving to play up tempo. KU rolled over Villanova 81-65 and were able to spread their minutes out a bit more with 7 guys playing double digit minutes. Kansas has played the tougher schedule (3rd highest SOS nationally) and they have the better offense (6th adjusted efficiency) and defense (17th adjusted efficiency). Their defense has been playing at the top of their game down the stretch holding 4 of their 5 opponents in the NCAA to 65 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to that same number or less. Even though we were on UNC on Saturday Duke (felt +4 was definitely too high) they were a bit lucky to win that game outright. Duke took 8 more shots but made just 22% of their 3’s (averaged 37%) and only 60% of their FT’s (averaged 74%). We felt the Devils shooting overall would regress in that game but didn’t expect 5 of 22 from deep. The Jayhawks were more than comfortable playing in this huge venue on Saturday making 54% of their shots and 77% of their FT’s vs a very good Nova defense. They most likely won’t shoot those percentages tonight but if they do it will be a runaway. Even if they regress more toward their averages in this one, they still win and cover this game in our opinion. The last 15 years the winner of the National Championship game has had a margin of at least +6 points 12 times. We like Kansas to get that win tonight. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Duke | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +4.5 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - The way these 2 teams are playing at the moment we have them rated almost dead even. This number says that Duke is 4 points better on a neutral court which we disagree with. It could be argued that UNC is actually playing better right now. In the NCAA they beat Marquette by 30+ points, beat #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game UNC led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7, and then crushed a red hot St Peter’s team that had beaten Kentucky, Murray State, and Purdue leading up to that game. Duke struggled with Michigan State (7th rated team in the Big 10) trailing late and were down much of the game vs Texas Tech and won a tight one. The Heels have had more clean wins so to speak in this tourney vs teams that have an average rank of 42 in Ken Pom ratings compared to Duke’s opponents who have an average rank of 56. UNC is 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance covering by an average of 15 PPG while Duke is 3-1 ATS covering by an average of 2.5 PPG. The Devils have been shooting absolute lights out and we just don’t see that continuing here in New Orleans Superdome, a huge venue. They have taken 36 fewer shots than their opponents in the NCAA tourney but they’ve topped 50% from the field in every game and hit a ridiculous 54% for the entire tourney. Duke is a very good shooting team (48%) but if they don’t shoot lights out in every game so far they most likely aren’t here right now. The Heels have shot 10% points lower in the tourney (44%) and they’ve pretty much dominated every team they’ve played despite that. These two rivals split their 2 meetings this year with each winning on the other’s home court. The most recent was the regular season finale at Duke where the Devils had all the reason in the world to win that game sending Coach K out with a win in his final home game. UNC dominated and won by 13 in arguably the toughest atmosphere of the season in college hoops. Speaking of currently being undervalued, the Tar Heels have won 4 in a row outright as a dog winning @ VaTech, @ Duke, and beating Baylor and UCLA in the Dance. Lastly, much more pressure on Duke here to win this thing for Coach K and UNC is sort of playing with house money making it to the Final 4 as an 8 seed. We’ll take the points in a game we feel is dead even. |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State -2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 44 h 36 m | Show |
#893 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with FSU as a 5 point chalk which is exactly where we had the game power rated. It has since dropped so we’ll take the value with the road team. Fresno got to this Championship game by rolling over a solid Southern Utah team on Monday by 19 points and holding them to just 48 points. CC won @ South Alabama by 1 point in OT but is wasn’t a full strength opponent. South Alabama played that game without their 2 leading scorers, Manning and Chandler, who combine to average 31 PPG, 7 RPG, and 6 APG. Even with that the Chanticleers needed a 3 pointer with only a few seconds remaining to send the game to OT where the won. If USA was at full strength, we’re pretty confident in saying CC wouldn’t even be here. They are playing this game at home, however they lost 6 games at home this season including 5 conference games (Sun Belt) so it’s not a huge advantage. If we use the Ken Pom ratings here, Fresno will be the highest rated team Coastal has played all season. Not one Sun Belt team ranked inside the top 130 and Fresno is currently ranked 78th. FSU has the much better overall numbers with a points per possession differential of +10.7 per 100 possessions compared to Coastal which is +1.0 in the same category. Consider that and the fact that Fresno played the MUCH tougher schedule (ranked 100 spots higher in SOS). The Bulldogs rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3rd nationally in PPG allowed at 58. Coastal Carolina has faced ONE top 100 defense all season (adjusted efficiency) so this will be a huge step up in what they are used to seeing. CC is also loose with the ball (307th in TO %) which will be an issue vs the best defense they’ve faced this season. Lastly, on top of all that, Fresno will have the best player on the floor in 7-foot Orlando Robinson (19 PPG, 8 RPG) who Ken Pom has rated as the 7th best player in the country. We don’t have to worry about motivation here. This is the Basketball Classic Championship game so we expect both teams to bring their A game. Fresno’s best is better than Coastal’s best so we’ll lay the small number. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina -8 | Top | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -8 over St Peters, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We took Purdue over St Peters on Friday night and lost but the value here on UNC is simply too good to pass up. Purdue was just favored by 13 points over the Peacocks on Friday and now UNC is laying only in the -8 or -8.5 range? We have North Carolina and Purdue power rated almost dead even but the line is 5 points lower than just 2 days ago? St Peter’s was also an 18 point dog vs Kentucky just last week! We realize they are playing well and quite frankly WAY above their heads when compared to their season numbers but this adjustment is too much. We realize STP is playing well but what about the Heels? They’ve won 9 of their last 10 and many convincingly. They won by double digits @ Duke to close out the regular season and beat UVA by 20 in the ACC tourney. Once UNC hit the Dance they’ve beaten Marquette by 32, #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game they led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, and then just beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7. UNC will cream St Peter’s on the boards just as Purdue did (+16 rebound margin). The Boilers problem on Friday were turnovers (23% TO rate) and poor 3 point shooting (23%). We expect UNC to handle the pressure much better than Purdue and they’ve been hot from 3 hitting just over 37% in the tourney. The Peacocks still remain by far the worst offensive team left in the tourney. They rank 216th in adjusted efficiency (next worst team in Elite eight ranks 53rd) and they rank 253rd in eFG%. They will struggle to score vs UNC’s length inside so they’ll need to be red hot from deep to stay in this game. We love the STP story and they are playing very well but this is a tough match up vs a highly talented team playing at their peak level right now. That along with the value in the number here have us on North Carolina. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
#641 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +4 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - Duke was a bit fortunate with their win over Texas Tech on Thursday. They won 78-73 which was their largest lead of the entire game. The Blue Devils shot 52% from the field and made 10 more FT’s and still only led for 7 minutes from the 7:00 minute mark of the first half through the end of the game (final 27 minutes of game time). In their previous game Duke shot 57% vs Michigan State and made 5 more FT’s yet trailed late before pulling out a win. So they shot lights out both games yet trailed both with under 3:00 minutes remaining. The Arkansas defense has been great in this tourney including holding the #1 offense in America (Gonzaga) to just 68 points on 38% shooting on Thursday. Nothing new for the Razors as they rank 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. We have to expect with Duke playing another top notch defense their offensive shooting percentage stays below 50% here which should make this game tight. It could be argued that since mid January, the Razorbacks have played as well as anyone in the country. They have won 18 of their last 21 games and 2 of those losses have come by 4 points or less. 10 of those 18 wins came vs NCAA tourney teams. Duke was struggling entering this tourney losing their home finale vs UNC and then losing in the ACC tourney vs Va Tech and as we said they were close to losing each of their last 2 games. Arkansas just beat who most consider the best team in the country despite not playing great offensively. They made just 40% of the shots, 28% of their 3’s and made 6 fewer FT’s than the Zags. That’s how well their defense has been playing. They have been an underdog 5 times this season and covered all 5 by an average of almost 9 PPG. We expect this to be close throughout and we have to take the points in this one. |
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03-25-22 | Providence +7.5 v. Kansas | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
#635 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence +7.5 over Kansas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We think Kansas is a flawed #1 seed. They are very good offensively but on defense they are just OK for a team looking to win a National Title. They rank outside the top 25 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. That being said, we loved their situation last week facing a Creighton team that was without 2 of their top 3 players including 7 foot center Kalkbrenner who was injured in the Jays opening round NCAA game. That left a huge hole in the middle both offensively and defensively for Creighton and forced an already ultra thin team to start a player who usually plays limited minutes (Feazell) for the first time this season. Even with all of those advantages the Jayhawks struggled to get the win never leading by double digits. Providence is a tough, veteran group (5 senior starters) that can absolutely give Kansas a run here. The analytics guys have been pounding on Providence all year as being lucky and winning too many close games. Much of that is true, however the fact is they know how to win the close games and they’ve done it on a regular basis. They won the Big East regular season and have only 5 losses all season, 2 of which were down to the wire games vs a #2 seed Villanova. The Friar defense has played fantastic in the Dance completely shutting down a South Dakota State offense that was the #1 three point shooting team in the nation. The Jackrabbits scored just 57 points in that game, their lowest total of the season. Following that win they faced a red hot Richmond team who had won 5 straight taking out Dayton, Davidson in the A10 tourney and Iowa in the NCAA. Providence crushed the Spiders by 28 holding them to 51 points. They are a slow paced team (283rd in adjusted tempo) that will make this a half court game. KU likes to speed the game up but will have a problem here doing that unless they get out to a huge lead which we do not expect. When facing the slower paced teams in the Big 12, Kansas had some trouble. The 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 12 were Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa State. The Jayhawks were 7-2 SU vs those teams, however all but one of those wins were decided by single digits. We expect a tight game in this one and we’ll take the generous points. |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue -12.5 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -12.5 over St Peters, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Here is the end of the line for the Peacocks. The line may seem a bit high at 12.5 but we’re actually getting some value on Purdue based on St Peters Cinderella run. The Peacocks faced Kentucky to open the NCAA tournament and they were 18 point underdogs in that game. Our power ratings would have UK favored by just 2 over Purdue on a neutral court so that tells us if this game was played last week we were probably going to see the Boilers as a 15 or 16 point favorite. STP’s offense has been below average all season long and played well above their expectations in the first 2 games of the NCAA. They averaged 1.13 and 1.09 PPP in those two wins over Kentucky and Murray State but their season average vs subpar competition for the most part was just 1.00 PPP. Purdue will be the best offense the Peacocks have faced this season. The Boilers rank 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3rd in 2 point FG%, 3rd in 3 point FG%, and 7th in scoring at 80 PPG. To put that in perspective, the MAAC, St Peter’s conference, has a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 170 in offensive efficiency. That was Iona who beat the Peacocks both times they met this season. STP doesn’t have the size to hang in this game. Purdue is huge. They have 2 very good inside threats in 7 foot 4 Ivey and 6 foot 10 Williams. STP’s biggest player in the regular rotation is 6 foot 8 he is a freshman. Purdue should dominate the interior which will open up their 3 point shooters which are deadly (39% as a team). They should also completely control the boards on both ends limiting St Peter’s to one shot on the vast majority of possessions while gathering offensive boards to give themselves extra possessions as well. On top of that, St Peter’s fouls A LOT so Purdue should live at the FT line where they hit 71%. The Peacocks had their nice opening weekend but it ends here and Purdue runs away with this one. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
#629 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -1 over Duke, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - We knew Tech would come out as a favorite in this game and we knew the masses would flock to Duke as a dog. There is a reason Texas Tech is favored. They are the better team and a bad match up for this young Blue Devil team. The Raiders are a veteran team that plays very physical which is a rough brand of basketball that Duke isn’t used to. TT ranks #1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, they create TO’s on almost 24% of possessions, and they are a very good rebounding team. They have big advantages in all of those categories in this game. Duke’s offense thrives in transition but Tech will make this a half court game. Even if the Devils are able to get some up tempo at times, the Raiders are great at transition defense allowing the lowest eFG% in the country in transition (43%). TT is also fantastic defensively inside the arc allowing the 3rd lowest % of points from 2-point land. If Duke wins this game, it will be because they get red hot from outside the 3 point line. We’ll take our chances there as Tech is also very solid at defending the 3 allowing 31%. The Red Raider defense gets the accolades but their offense is solid and underrated. They rank 46th nationally in adjusted efficiency and they are fantastic as scoring inside the arc hitting 55% of their shots (22nd nationally) and scoring over 55% of their points from 2-point range (76th nationally). Duke’s defense has been shaky to say the least allowing 75 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. They’ve allowed at least 1.10 PPP in 6 of their last 8 games. To put that in perspective, Texas Tech allows 0.84 PPP adjusted efficiency on the season! The Devils haven’t faced a defense anywhere near this good since November (Gonzaga & Kentucky). There is not a single ACC defense ranked inside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency. Lots of pressure on this young team to get it done in Coach K’s final run. They couldn’t do it in their home finale getting rolled by UNC. They couldn’t do it in the ACC tourney getting smoked by Va Tech in the final. We don’t think they’re tough enough to get it done here and we’ll call for Texas Tech to move onto the Elite 8. |
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03-23-22 | Youngstown State v. Fresno State -13 | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -13 over Youngstown State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - YSU has played the 2nd easiest schedule in the entire country this season. Fresno State will be just the 3rd top 100 team (per Ken Pom) that Youngstown has faced the entire season. The first 2 were vs West Virginia (30 point loss) and Penn State (16 point loss). We think the Penguins will have huge problems offensively in this game. Their overall offensive stats aren’t terrible as they rank 189th in efficiency. The problem with that is, they’ve faced a terrible set of defenses this year. YSU resides in the Horizon League which has ZERO top 100 defenses (efficiency wise) and ONE defense ranked inside the top 200. That means in their 22 conference games, 20 were vs defenses ranked lower than 200 in adjusted efficiency. Looking at the season as a whole, the Penguins faced 2 defenses this year (in 33 games) that were ranked inside the top 100. They scored 52 and 59 points in those games. Fresno State’s defense is very good ranking 3rd nationally allowing just 58 PPG and 33rd nationally in efficiency. On the other end of the court, FSU should have a field day vs YSU’s defense which ranks 311th in efficiency. To put that in perspective not ONE team in the Mountain West Conference has a defense that ranks 300 or lower. The only one that is close in San Jose State and Fresno won all 3 meetings with the Spartans have an average of 17.3 PPG scoring an average of 74 PPG in those games. That may not seem like a huge number but when your defense allows teams to score in the 50’s, getting to 70+ points gets Fresno in the “easy win” column. Fresno beat Eastern Washington in game 1 of this tourney by 9 points but they led by 18 with just 2 minutes remaining. YSU struggled with a bad Morgan State team (won by 5) that was missing 3 of their top 6 scorers in that game. Long travel for a Youngstown team that will be overmatched here. |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt +4 v. Xavier | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
#611 ASA PLAY ON 8* Vanderbilt +4 over Xavier, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We have this game handicapped at dead even so we like the value with Vandy getting more than a full possession here. Xavier will most likely be without one of their top players Paul Scruggs who averages 12 PPG, 4 RPG, and 4 APG. He was injured in Sunday’s win over Florida and was in crutches following the game so the chance of him playing 48 hours later is slim to none. The Musketeers struggled in their NIT opener squeaking by Cleveland State despite the Vikings making just 1 three pointer in 12 attempts. After that win they faced a Florida team over the weekend that is in a bit of disarray with their coach leaving for Georgia just prior to the NIT tipping off. Vandy took care of a solid Belmont team and they topped Dayton, the 2nd best team in the A10 behind Davidson. The Commodores will have the best player on the floor in this game with Scotty Pippen Jr. He is coming off a 32 point performance vs a Dayton defense that was ranked 2nd in the A10 in efficiency. Vandy has been undervalued all season long as they continue to put up winning spread numbers. They have covered 8 straight as an underdog and their spread record on the season is a money making 22-13. Xavier is the opposite. After a very solid start they were terrible down the stretch losing 8 of their last 10 games before entering the NIT. They have 5 home losses on the season and they’ve covered just 4 of their last 15 as a favorite. Vanderbilt is better defensively, they create more turnovers, and they are the better 3 point shooting team. This one has the makings of an upset and we’ll grab the points. |
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03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas Tech -7.5 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We lost going against ND on Friday vs a Bama team that looked lethargic and played a terrible game. On top of that, the Tide lost arguably their best player (Quinerly) just 3 minutes into the game. The Irish were able to outlast Alabama by shooting 54% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. They won’t get anywhere near those numbers in this game vs Texas Tech who has the #1 defensive team in the nation (adjusted efficiency). The Raiders are rested after destroying Montana State in round 1 and they are a very poor match up for the Irish. Tech is a dominant rebounding team that is very physical. That’s a problem for Notre Dame who is not a physical team, nor a good rebounding team, AND they are playing their 3rd game in 5 days including long travel (2,200 miles) after their first 4 in double OT win on Wednesday. We expect ND to have tired legs in this one which is one thing you absolutely don’t want when playing Texas Tech who will be up in the Irish shorts defensively the entire game. In their win over the Tide, Bama actually controlled the offensive boards and pushed Notre Dame into a 25% TO rate. Those 2 things led to 10 more shot attempts for the Crimson Tide but a poor shooting night after losing Quinerly was their downfall. If ND turned it over 25% of the time vs Bama (204th nationally in defensive TO %) they are in huge trouble here vs the Red Raiders who turn teams over 24% of the time (10th nationally). Between that and the big rebounding edge we expect here, Tech should create a lot of extra possessions. If ND doesn’t shoot lights out again, they are in trouble in this game. With tired legs and facing a great defense, we anticipate they won’t. It’s the end of the road for the Irish and we look for Tech to win this by double digits. |
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03-19-22 | St. Mary's +2.5 v. UCLA | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
#797 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s +2.5 over UCLA, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - UCLA steps into this game after a physical, down to the wire defensive battle with Akron. The Bruins escaped with a 57-53 win in that game. The Bruins trailed for all but 3 minutes in the 2nd half of that game despite making 4 more three point shots and 4 more FT’s. St Mary’s should come in rested after their whitewashing of the Indiana Hoosiers (our Top Game on Thursday). The Gaels won by 29 points and they were able to spread out their minutes with 12 different players seeing court time. Thursday was St Mary’s first game since March 8th and they are facing a UCLA team playing their 5th game in 10 days. As we wrote on Thursday vs Indiana, the Gaels have size and defend the interior very well which is where UCLA likes to operate. They also won’t be dominated on the boards as St Mary’s ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive rebounding so very few extra possession off the boards for the Bruins. Both defenses are outstanding with STM ranking 9th nationally in efficiency and UCLA 14th. On offense both teams hit their 3 point attempts at 35% but the Gaels are better inside the arc and at the FT line where they make 76% as a team. We have these teams rated basically dead even. The strength of schedules were very close with UCLA a slight edge. Each team went 1-2 vs the #1 seed which resided in their respective conferences (Gonzaga & Arizona). STM was 7-4 SU vs tourney teams and UCLA was 6-4. Our power ratings have UCLA as a 1 point favorite so we’ll take the value on St Mary’s here. |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -5.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET - Michigan came from 15 down vs Colorado State on Thursday to pick up a first round win. They did so without starting PG Jones (11 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG) who is out with a concussion but it will be tough to compete in this one without him. He did not make the trip to Indy and they’re hoping he can play next week if Michigan makes it that far which we project they will not. The Wolverines shot over 50% vs CSU and the Rams made just 35% of their shots vs a Wolverine defense that hasn’t been great this year (11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). Michigan also made 14 more FT’s in the game and those 2 things tell us this game should have been a blowout and it wasn’t. Now the Wolverines face a lock down UT defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. It’s a Vols team that is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now winning 13 of their last 14 with their only loss coming @ Arkansas by 6. In the SEC tourney Tennessee topped a top notch Kentucky team by 7 (led by 14 in the 2nd half) and then rolled a red hot A&M team by 15 in the final. While Michigan had a fairly tough opening round game vs CSU, they trailed at half and really only played 6 guys decent minutes, UT is rested after rolling Longwood by 30+ and played 8 guys double digit minutes. These 2 both played top 10 schedules this year but UT is +26 points per 100 possessions vs their opponents while Michigan is +16 pints per 100 possessions. Tennessee might just be the best team in the country right now. The much better D playing a less than 100% Michigan team is a take for us. |
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03-18-22 | Notre Dame v. Alabama -3.5 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -3.5 over Notre Dame, Friday at 4:15 PM ET - Talk about a rough spot for ND. Not only did they play a double OT game on Wednesday that didn’t end until after midnight ET, they had to travel 2,200 miles to San Diego to play less than 40 hours later. The Irish basically played only 6 players with all 6 topping 33 minutes played and 3 players topping 40 minutes. Bama is ultra talented. They don’t always “show up” so to speak but they have potential future NBA players in Davison, Ellis, and Quinerly. When they are on, they are very good having beaten the likes of Gonzaga & Baylor (#1 seeds) along with Tennessee, Houston, Arkansas, LSU, and Miami FL, all NCAA tourney teams. We expect them to bring their “A” game now in the Big Dance. The Tide played the toughest schedule in the country per Ken Pom (ND 67th in schedule strength) and their PPP differential is better than the Irish despite that that (+18 points per 100 possessions to +14 for ND). Bama does struggle at times with TO’s but that shouldn’t hurt them here as the Irish are one of the worst in the nation (334th) at creating takeaways. Notre Dame is a solid shooting team but should have tired legs here vs an athletic defense that gives up just 0.98 PPP. The Irish beat just ONE team this season ranked inside the Ken Pom top 30 while Bama has 6 wins over teams in the top 20 per Ken Pom including 4 wins vs the top 10. Alabama, currently 25th, takes down the Irish on Friday. |
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03-18-22 | Yale v. Purdue -16 | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
#766 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue -16 over Yale, Friday at 2 PM ET - We feel this is one of the games in the first round that has absolute blowout potential. Yale wasn’t even the best team in the Ivy League this year but upset Princeton in the conference tourney to get here. The Bulldogs are ranked right around 150th by most power rating which would make them the worst team in the Big 10 by 10 to 15 spots behind Nebraska. Purdue faced the Huskers once this year and won 92-65. Yale hasn’t faced a top 100 team since mid December and they faced just 5 teams ranked inside the top 100 this season. The Bulldogs are 0-5 SU in those games losing by margins of 36, 22, 17, 14, and 8 points. Purdue will be the top team they’ve faced this year with the possible exception of Auburn who beat Yale by 22 points but led by 34 midway through the 2nd half. Yale is a smaller team that struggles on the boards and doesn’t defend inside very well ranking outside the top 150 in both mid range and near proximity defense. That’s a huge problem vs this Purdue offense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG%, 4th in 3 point FG%, and 11th in 2 point FG%. The Boilers should have a field day on offense and on the boards. Purdue’s achilles heel this year was their defense which ranked 99th nationally in efficiency. As “poor” as that might seem by Big 10 standards, that would rank as the #1 defense in the Ivy League! Yale ranks below 200th in both offensive efficiency and 3 point FG% so we don’t think they’ll do much offensive here. Purdue rolls up a big win here. |
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03-17-22 | Indiana v. St. Mary's -2.5 | 53-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
#748 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s -2.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET - Horrible spot here for IU. They played a physical grinder on Tuesday night vs Wyoming and a game that didn’t end until almost midnight ET. The Hoosiers pulled off the win to move on and then had to travel 2,300 miles to Portland and face a tough defensive St Mary’s team in a game that tips just 43 hours after IU beat Wyoming. On top of that, they were supposed to fly out to Portland at 1 AM and weren’t able to take off from Dayton until after 4 AM. They didn’t land in Portland until late morning on Wednesday and have to play in 36 hours. Indiana had some built in advantages on Tuesday include a huge home court advantage as the Dayton Arena (150 miles from Bloomington) that was filled with Hoosier fans. The Cowboys also turned the ball over almost 30% of the time leading to 16 more shot attempts for Indiana and they game still was undecided late. We were on IU in that game but this one is a whole different animal. St Mary’s is rested (off since March 8) and they play fantastic, physical defense. They rank 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they have size and defend the interior very well which is where IU needs to be able to score. The Hoosiers don’t have great shooting guards and they score only 25% of their points from the arc (318th nationally). Not only are the Gaels a top notch defensive team, they are the better shooting team as well. They also make almost 76% of the FT’s and rarely turn the ball over. St Mary’s is 1 of 3 teams this season to beat Gonzaga along with Bama & Duke. The Gaels also finished 3-2 vs WCC NCAA teams sweeping San Francisco and losing twice to the Zags. Really good situation for St Mary’s and we’ll lay the small price. |
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03-17-22 | South Dakota State v. Providence -2 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Providence -2 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - SDSU has become a way too popular underdog in this game. We basically need the Friars to just win the game with the current number. Many have brought up the Friars “luck” on the season as they’ve won a number of close games. However, the fact is, they know how to win those games and they won the Big East regular season title with a 14-3 conference record. Their only regular season conference losses were @ Marquette and 2 losses to Villanova, a 2-seed in the Dance, by 2 & 5 points. South Dakota State won the Summit League title but that is a league without a single team, besides SDSU, ranked in the top 100. The Jackrabbits played only 4 top 100 teams all season long going 2-2 in those games beating Washington State & Bradley while losing to Bama & Missouri State. The last top 100 team SDSU faced was back on December 15th. Providence played 17 games vs top 100 teams with a record of 12-5 SU. SDSU’s offensive numbers are very good but let’s take into account they did not face a top 130 defense in conference play. The Summit League is known for poor defenses with 4 of their 10 teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and 8 of the 10 outside the top 200. Providence will be the best defense they’ve faced since early December. The Friars played 9 games this season without either Reeves or Bynum, two of their best players, but are 100% healthy entering the tourney. They have a big size advantage inside and should control the glass in this game. The Friars can shoot it a little as well as they were the best 3-point shooting team in Big East play and they have one of the better big men in this tourney, Nate Watson (14 PPG, 6 RPG). With this line sitting not far from pick-em we’ll fade possibly the most popular dog in round one and side with Providence. |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers +1.5 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET - We have Rutgers rated as the better team here and as of this writing, we’re getting points. Rutgers played in the much tougher conference so they faced the tougher schedule (34th SOS for Rutgers / 68th SOS for Notre Dame). The Scarlet Knights were 6-6 this year in Quad 1 Games (Home vs top 30 NET teams + Neutral site vs top 50 teams + Away vs top 75 teams). Notre Dame was 2-8 in their Quad 1 games. If we throw in Quad 2 results as well, the Irish were only 4-9 in those games. Not impressive. Along those lines, Notre Dame had just 3 wins all season vs teams ranked in the top 75 on Ken Pom. Rutgers has 8 wins this season vs teams currently ranked in the top 75. That doesn’t tell the whole story as in fact all 8 of those wins came vs teams ranked in the top 40! The Irish rely very heavily on the 3 point shot which we don’t always love when playing at an unfamiliar venue. They score just 46% of their points inside the arc which is 311th nationally. Rutgers, on the other hand, scores nearly 58% of their points inside the arc and they are facing a ND defense that struggles to defend inside. In fact, the Irish have allowed their opponents to score 57% of their points from 2 point range which is 23rd most in the nation. We think Rutgers controls the inside and unless ND shoots lights out from deep, we’ll be OK here. ND played 2 Big 10 teams this year and lost by 10 vs Illinois and by 8 vs Indiana. Rutgers played 1 ACC team this season and beat Clemson by 10. The Scarlet Knights have been a money maker as a dog this season with an 11-5 ATS record and we like them to win this game |
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03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
#709 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iona +6.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - What an extremely tough situation for a Florida team facing a very solid opponent in Iona on Wednesday. First of all the Gators have to overcome the disappointment of not making the NCAA tourney for the first time since 2016. They were expecting to be there again this year and lost 5 of their last 8 games to take them out of consideration. Secondly, they just lost their coach on Sunday as Mike White accepted the head coaching job at SEC rival Georgia. Assistant coach, Al Pinkins, who has never been a head coach will take this team over for their NIT game/games. That’s a lot of emotional baggage, so to speak, to overcome in a short time. They will be facing an Iona team, let by one of the top coaches in CBB history, Rick Pitino so a strong coaching edge to the Gaels in this game. They are a veteran team with 4 senior starters, that played one of the tougher low major schedules in the country. Iona finished 25-7 including a win over Alabama who beat Florida by 13 on the road in their only meeting this season. They were the best team in the MAAC all season long but were upset by Rider 71-70 in the conference tourney. They are a very good defensive team (46th eFG% allowed) and they defend the 3 very well (29th nationally) which is key here as the Gators like to launch from beyond the arc. The Gaels also have decent size and they are a solid rebounding team so they should hang with Florida on the boards. They have only 1 loss this season by more than 9 points and that was vs #1 seed Kansas (lost by 13). Iona will give the Gators all they can handle here. We expect it to be close throughout and we grab the points. |
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03-16-22 | Nicholls State +15.5 v. SMU | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show | |
#705 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nicholls State +15.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Almost no way SMU brings their “A” game here. They were among the most devasted teams to be left out of the Big Dance. Here are some quotes from SMU coach Jankovich which speaks volumes. "I saw a group of guys completely devastated and heartbroken. In my eyes, they're 100% an NCAA tournament team. I hope they don't let what a small committee of others believes change how they feel about themselves.” Now to have to play in a meaningless (to them) game will be very tough. Nicholls State is just happy to still be playing. They are veteran team with 5 senior starters that was the top team all season long in the Southern Conference. They won the regular season title but were upset by Texas A&M CC in the conference tourney. The Colonels played some tough competition quite well before entering their conference slate. They lost by 3 @ Wisconsin, by 14 @ Purdue, and by 13 @ TCU. They also beat a very solid Northern Iowa team on the road. They are a decent shooting team (69th nationally in eFG%) and they have pretty good size for a low major team and won’t get dominated on the boards vs a poor rebounding SMU team. NSU had a winning 10-9 SU record on the road this season. This line is a bit high in our opinion even not taking the emotional letdown in mind here. 2 teams in the AAC that were similarly rated to Nicholls State were Tulsa and USF. SMU was favored by 10.5 and 14.5 at home in those games and won both of those games by 14. Too many points to begin with and factoring in the situation we like Nicholls State. |
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03-15-22 | Indiana -3.5 v. Wyoming | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
#665 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana -3.5 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET - IU has already pulled out the disrespect card in regards to being chosen to take part in one of the play in games. They felt they were firmly in the field and in hindsight they barely made it in. Hoosier star forward Trace Jackson-Davis took to Instagram after the selection process, ““Some disrespect. We in. That’s all that matters.” Expect IU to play with a chip on their shoulder in front of what will be like a home crowd for them. Dayton is just 160 miles from Bloomington and this storied program hasn’t been to the Dance since 2016 so we can expect the Crimson & White fans to be all over Dayton Arena on Tuesday night. Wyoming had a solid year but struggled down the stretch winning 4 of their last 9 games. 2 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (Air Force & Nevada) and the 2 others were by 2 points and in OT. It’s also a rough match up for the Cowboys as they played through the post offensive as much as any team in the nation and IU excels at defending inside (8th best at near proximity shots & 14th best at defending mid range shots). Indiana is finally healthy as well after missing two key players (Galloway & Phinisee) for a number of games down the stretch. Now with them back in the lineup they seem to be peaking beating Michigan, Illinois, and nearly taking down a red hot Iowa in the Big 10 tourney. Lay the points. |
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03-15-22 | Oregon v. Utah State -4.5 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -4.5 over Oregon, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Ducks will most likely have zero interest in playing this game. They are on the road, in the NIT, vs a MWC team. This is an Oregon team who tanked it down the stretch. They were in line for a highly probably NCAA bid in mid February with a 17-8 record, 10-4 in the Pac 12. They proceeded to drop 6 of their final 8 games to officially drop out of NCAA consideration. This is not where this team wanted to be. They are also shorthanded with starting PG Richardson and leading scorer (14 PPG) mostly likely out for the 4th consecutive game. The Ducks are 1-3 with him out of the line up with their only win coming over last place Oregon State. On top of that, starting F Dante (8 PPG, 6 RPG) missed practice on Sunday with an injury. We envision this team showing up and playing out the string in this one. USU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be hosting a Pac 12 team in the NIT. They stated as much on Sunday night. They rarely host a high major type team. In fact, the last time the Aggies played host to a Power 5 team was way back on 2014 when the topped USC here by 13 points. They will be pumped for this game. Not only that, they are a very solid team. They rank in the top 50 in offensive efficiency and in the top 25 in eFG%. They shoot 48% at home and win by an average margin of +11 points. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up. Oregon underachieved all season with a terrible 12-20 ATS record and we don’t expect that to change tonight. USU is the play. |
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03-13-22 | Richmond v. Davidson -3.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Davidson -3.5 over Richmond, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - While Richmond is playing for a spot in the Big Dance, we think this is a terrible spot for them. It’s the Spiders 4th game in 4 days and to be honest, they’ve been a bit lucky to get to this spot. They’ve held their first 3 opponents to just 25% from 3-point land which is a big time outlier as the Spiders rank 211th nationally and 11th in the A10 at defending the arc. They now play a Davidson team that ranks 7th nationally shooting from deep hitting almost 39% of their 3’s. They also rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency and 11th in eFG%. Richmond has also held their first 3 opponents in this tourney to just 62 PPG which is more than 10 points below what they gave up per game during the season. Tired legs playing their 4th straight game will make it very tough today vs one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Richmond was down 15 in the 2nd half yesterday vs Dayton and made a furious comeback to win a close won. They led for a total of 2 minutes the entire game. Davidson is well rested and ready here. They blew out Fordham to open the tourney and they destroyed a very good St Louis team yesterday. The Wildcats have been able to spread out their minutes with 8 players playing double digit minutes in each game. They are also playing their 3rd game in this tourney while Richmond is playing their 4th. These 2 met once this season and Davidson won that game @ Richmond. We realize this is a huge game for the Spiders, but teams that “have to” win don’t always win. We think they run out of gas here vs the better team. Lay the number. |
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03-12-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -2.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UK was hoping for this rematch in the SEC tourney and they got it. The Cats have won 11 of their last 13 games and one of those losses was @ Tennessee and it just happened to be Kentucky’s most lopsided loss of the season. They lost 76-63 and trailed by as many as 20 points late in the game. The Wildcats shot just 34% from the field, well below their season average of 49% which is 12th best in the country. They averaged just 0.94 PPP also way below their season average of 1.21 PPP (4th best in the nation). The Vols made 47% of their 3’s in that game which propelled them to the win. They need to make their 3’s to have a chance to win as UT is poor offensively inside the arc ranking 14th in the SEC in 2 point FG%. Kentucky is one of the best 3 point defensive teams in the nation – ranked 26th – so we don’t expect Tennessee to hit anywhere near 47% in today’s game. On the other end, Kentucky is the best 3 point shooting team in the SEC at 39% but made just 31% in their loss @ UT a few weeks ago. UK is the #1 offensive team in the league in efficiency, eFG%, 3 point %, and scoring. They are only a slight step behind Tennessee defensively. The Cats have the superior PPP differential in SEC play and they are the better team. Despite their recent loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats rolled UT in their first meeting 107-79. We’ll lay the small number with Kentucky. |
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03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -3.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
#830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3.5 over Richmond, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - VCU has been the better team all season long and this is simply a poor match up for Richmond. The Rams won both games rolling at home by 20 points and winning on the road by 2. In their road game which they won by 2, Richmond took 7 more shots and 14 more FT’s and STILL lost at home which speaks to the Rams just being that much better. In the 2nd meeting when the attempts were more equal (VCU took 6 more shot and both attempted 18 FT’s) the Rams rolled to a huge win. VCU’s defense, which ranks 4th nationally in efficiency & 3rd in eFG% allowed, completely shut down Richmond’s offense holding them to 0.89 and 0.91 points per possession. The Spiders shot just 36% in the two meetings combined and made only 21% of their 3’s. That’s not an outlier as we mentioned VCU has a defense that is nearly 2nd to none nationally. VCU’s offense was successful vs a Richmond defense that ranks 9th in the A10 in efficiency and 11th in eFG% allowed. The Rams made 48% of their shots in the 2 meetings with Richmond. VCU led by 23 and 10 points in each of their games vs Richmond while the Spiders largest lead in either was 8 points and that was in the first half of one match up. IN the 2 meetings combined, the Spiders led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half! Richmond beat Rhode Island yesterday but had to make a big 2nd half comeback to do so. They trailed by 15 in the 2nd half vs URI who ranks as the 8th best team (power rankings) in the A10. VCU gets another win and moves on in the A10 tourney. |
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03-10-22 | Penn State +5.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
#719 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +5 over Ohio State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - PSU will slow this game to a crawl making the points more valuable in a projected low scoring game (total is currently 130). They are the better defensive team (50th nationally in efficiency to 122nd for OSU) and they rarely get blown out. Of PSU’s 16 losses, 10 have come by 7 points or less and only once since February 1st have they lost by more than 6 points. The Buckeyes are trending downward entering this tourney. They have lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins during that stretch came in OT and by 3 points. Key reserve Kyle Young (3rd leading scorer) has been out the last 3 games due to concussion protocol and will miss this game today. Starting F Zed Key has an ankle injury and may not play today, if he does he is not at 100%. OSU is already in the Big Dance and this tourney might not be as important as simply getting healthy. Head coach Chris Holtmann said as much this week stating, “Obviously it’s important for us to get healthy.” These 2 met once this year in Columbus and PSU took the Buckeyes to the wire losing 61-56. PSU played that game without Seth Lundy, their 2nd leading scorer at 12 PPG. OSU made 24 FT’s in that win to just 8 for the Nittany Lions and it still went to the wire. We like the fact that Penn State played here last night beating Minnesota by 9 points. It gave them a feel for the venue (Pacers home court) and 2 games in 2 days is not necessarily a negative as some make it out to be. We actually view it as a positive (at times) when playing in an unfamiliar arena. 3 games in 3 days or 4 in 4 can become a negative but not 2 in 2 (most of the time). We give Penn State a solid shot at the upset here but have the +5 as a solid cushion. |
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03-09-22 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech -5 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
#648 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Clemson and the Tigers pulled out a 63-59 win. The Hokies came into that game on a red hot run winning 9 of their previous 10 games. They played well below their offensive averages on Saturday putting up just 0.97 PPP (they average 1.13 PPP – 28th nationally) and shot just 37% for the game (they average 47% on the season). They are also one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation (4th hitting 39% of their triples) yet made just 30% in Saturday’s loss. Clemson pretty much hit their average with 1.04 PPP but weren’t able to pull away at home in a game that was tight throughout. The Tigers largest lead of the entire game was 6 points despite Tech’s poor offensive performance. Now we get a shot with the better team with quick revenge. Clemson is coming off a win yesterday over last place NC State (won by 6) but shot only 42% vs the worst defense in the ACC. Tonight the Tigers face a team that is better offensively, better defensively, and nearly beat them on the road despite playing poorly. We’ll lay this short number with Va Tech. |
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03-09-22 | St. Joe's -2 v. La Salle | Top | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
#651 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Joes -2 over LaSalle, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 have the same conference record at 5-13 but St Joes is the better team (Ken Pom ranked 157th to 231st for LaSalle) and they should have some extra motivation here vs their Philly rival. These 2 met twice this year, St Joes was favored in both and lost both. The Hawks blew big leads in both games leading by 15 & 14 points. Their most recent meeting was @ LaSalle one week ago today and the host overcame that big deficit to pull out a 49-48 win. St Joes (-1) led that road game by 12 at half and scored only 12 points the entire 2nd half. They shot 27% overall and 29% from beyond the arc and STILL almost won the game on the road. LaSalle led the game for a grand total of 2 minutes! St Joes is the much better defensive team ranking 3rd in the A10 in eFG% allowed (LaSalle ranks 12th) and they are the better shooting team both inside and outside the arc and they have the better PPP differential in league play. The Hawks get more points from 3 point range than any other team in the conference and they are facing a LaSalle defense that ranks 318th nationally defending the arc. We like St Joes to improve drastically on their 29% three point effort from last week and pick up a nice win here. The favorite is 19-9-2 ATS the last 30 meetings between these 2 heated rivals. Lay it with St Joes. |
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03-07-22 | Wright State +1 v. Cleveland State | Top | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
#879 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +1 over Cleveland State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The better team is getting points here. As of this writing Wright State is +1 and we’ll gladly grab the points. Cleveland State topped Wright State by a half game to win the Horizon, however we don’t like the way they are playing right now. The Vikings were 10-1 and had a huge lead in league play before going just 5-5 down the stretch (6-5 if you include their win in the Horizon tourney). Their wins during that 11 game stretch (since late January) have come against IUPUI, Milwaukee (twice), Green Bay (twice), and Robert Morris, the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. They lost to every team they faced ranked 8th or higher in the conference during that 11 game stretch. If we look at the Horizon League season as a whole, if we subtract the bottom 4 teams, CSU has a PPG differential of just +1.6 vs the top 8. Wright State is +6.2 PPG vs the top 8 teams in the conference. The Raiders have a better PPP margin in league play, a better overall PPG margin, and they are the #1 offense (efficiency) in the Horizon averaging 1.13 PPP. Wright State comes in having won 8 of their last 11 games with their 3 losses coming by 3, 4, and 5 points. They rank 1st in the conference in rebound margin and if this game is tight as the line suggests, WSU hits 76% of the FT’s on the season and CSU makes just 67%. Wright State lost both games vs Cleveland State this season but those games were in early December and in January. The Raiders are playing their best BB right now and we have them power rated as a favorite in this one. Take the points. |
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03-06-22 | Wofford v. Chattanooga -1.5 | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
#832 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chattanooga -1.5 over Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Chattanooga was the better team all season long and on top of that they match up very well with Wofford. The Mocs won both regular season match ups by 11 and 8 points holding Wofford to 0.97 PPP in both of those meetings. UTC’s defense is the best in the Southern Conference ranking 1st in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. The last stat on that list is the key here as Wofford relies very heavily on the 3 point shot, as much as nearly any team in the country. That makes it tough vs Chattanooga who allows just 30% from deep which was the Terriers problem in the first 2 meetings hitting just 27% in those 2 games combined from deep. If Wofford isn’t successful from beyond the arc, they can’t win this game. They were just 3-5 SU vs the top 4 three point defensive teams in the Southern Conference (Furman, Chattanooga, ETSU, and Mercer). UTC, on the other hand, likes to score inside the arc. While they can shoot the 3 (hit 35% from deep) over 50% of their points come from inside the arc (2nd in the conference). Wofford is 295th nationally at defending inside the 3 point line and hit 54% and 52% of their 2 point shots in their games vs the Terriers this season. UTC is built to win in the tournament. They have 2 outstanding Senior guards, who will be the 2 best players on the court in this game in our opinion, and a big man (DeSousa) who transferred from Kansas and can cause problems inside. DeSousa missed 7 games this season (including one of the meetings vs Wofford) and when at full strength, Chattanooga is the best team in the conference. We have this number at -3 so we like the value with UTC. Lay it. |
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03-06-22 | Nebraska +14 v. Wisconsin | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
#807 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +14 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Badgers. They are off a physically and emotionally demanding game earlier this week here vs Purdue. The atmosphere was insane. We were courtside to witness the game and the court storming celebration afterwards. Wisconsin clinched the Big 10 Title with their 70-67 win over Purdue. They have at least a share of the title and if they win here they will win it outright. Even with that, going from playing Purdue to a Sunday afternoon affair with the last place team in the league and an atmosphere that will be nowhere close, we anticipate a letdown. While the Badgers are Big 10 Champs, they win close games and rarely roll over anyone. They have NOT won a game in the Big 10 this year by more than 14 points which is where this spread sits as we write this. When they faced the Huskers earlier this year UW won by 8 points in a game the Badgers shot an uncharacteristic 46% from beyond the arc (they average 31% in Big 10 play - dead last in the conference). The Huskers were in the midst of a 10 game losing streak during their first meeting but they are now playing, by far, their best basketball of the year. The offense is humming right now for this Nebraska team. They are off back to back road wins @ Penn State (won by 23) and @ Ohio State (won by 8). Prior to that they had a red hot Iowa team (who has won 8 of their last 9) on the ropes before falling by 10. In their last 2 games this offense put up 1.35 PPP vs a PSU defense that allows 0.97 PPP on the season & 1.24 PPP vs an Ohio State defense that allows 1.00 PPP on the year. We don't see Wisconsin being able to pull away here the way NU is playing offensively. The Badgers should win this one but not in blowout fashion. They are just 1-4 ATS this season as double digit favorites. Take the points. |
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03-05-22 | Southern Utah v. Weber State -4.5 | 80-70 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
#720 ASA PLAY ON 8* Weber State -4.5 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The winner of this game clinches at least a share of 2nd place in the Big Sky conference. Both teams come in with a 13-6 league record but Weber has been the better team and they are in the much better situation. Weber State has had a full week off since destroying Northern Arizona on the road last Saturday 73-49. While the Wildcats are rested and have had plenty of time to prepare for this home game, SUU will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days having played @ Montana State on Tuesday, @ Idaho State on Thursday and now @ Weber State tonight. The Wildcats lead the Big Sky in points per possession differential at +10.6 and they are 2nd in PPG differential only behind 1st place Montana State. They have the 3rd most efficient offense in the Big Sky and the 1st most efficient defense. Southern Utah has shown they can beat the teams they are supposed to but when stepping up and facing the top teams in the conference they have fallen flat. The top 4 teams in the conference are Montana State, Weber State, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah. SUU is 0-5 SU vs those opponents (Weber is 3-2) and they’ve lost those game by an average of almost 10 PPG. The Thunderbirds are 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog which goes along with not stepping up vs good teams. Weber has beaten SUU here at home 19 of the last 22 meetings and they pick up a win and cover on Saturday night. |
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03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona State -5.5 over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - ASU is playing as well as nearly anyone in the Pac 12 right now. After starting the season with a 3-9 conference record, the Devils have now won 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ UCLA. Their defense has been fantastic during this 7 game stretch holding their opponents to just 57 PPG. They rank 2nd in the conference in eFG% defense and 1st in 3 point % defense. That’s a big problem for a Stanford offense that averages just 61 PPG on the road this season and ranks 10th in the Pac 12 in offensive efficiency. The Cardinal have been held to 60 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games and we highly doubt they get out of the 50’s in this match up. ASU also has been very good at creating turnovers (almost 20% rate) which should give them plenty of extra opportunities here vs a Stanford offense that turns the ball over 22% of the time (last in the Pac 12). In their 71-44 win here vs Cal on Thursday, the Sun Devils outscored the Bears 16-2 off turnovers and Cal is much better at protecting the ball then Stanford is. The Cardinal are in a tough scheduling spot here as well playing their 3rd straight road game in the span of 8 days. While ASU is peaking, Stanford is heading the opposite direction losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming vs Oregon State, the worst team in the conference. In their first meeting this year, Stanford topped ASU 79-76 shooting 47% from beyond the arc (ASU shot 28%) and made 32 FT’s to just 7 for the Sun Devils. Despite those huge differentials, the game went to the wire. ASU was actually called for a foul on a Stanford 3 point shot with 1 second remaining and the game tied at 76-76. And that’s when Arizona State was playing poorly in the middle of a stretch where they lost 9 of 11 games. We like the Devils to roll in this one. |
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03-03-22 | TCU v. Kansas -10.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -10.5 over TCU, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Tuesday and TCU pulled the upset beating Kansas 74-64 as a 6.5 point dog. It was KU’s 2nd straight loss after getting beat @ Baylor on Saturday. Coming off 2 losses and in a quick revenge spot, we expect Kansas to play very well at home tonight. The Jayhawks shot very poorly on Tuesday hitting only 37% of their shots and averaging just 1.02 points per possession. That’s way below their season averages of 49% (12th nationally) and 1.20 PPP (4th nationally). Crazy as it may sound, TCU is probably in a bit of a letdown spot here. Not only did they beat KU at home on Tuesday they also knocked off Texas Tech at home on Saturday. They went into their final home stand of the season with the goal of knocking off the 2 highly ranked opponents to lock themselves in to an NCAA tourney bid. They did just that and the Frogs now venture out on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight games by margins of 9, 10, and 13 points. They turned the ball over a season low 8 times vs Kansas which was very uncharacteristic of a team that ranks below 300 in TO rate coughing it up on over 23% of their possessions – last in the Big 12. They also dominated the boards (+12) and while they are a very good rebounding team, KU is solid on the glass as well. This will be a very tough turnaround in a venue (Allen Fieldhouse) where the Frogs have lost 10 straight. TCU struggles offensively at times (247th nationally in scoring) and that will be a problem here vs a fired up KU offense that averages 82 PPG off one of their worst performances of the season on Tuesday vs this team. A win here for Kansas puts them back in first place in the Big 12 tied with Baylor. Lay it. |
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03-02-22 | Wyoming v. UNLV -1.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON UNLV -1.5 over Wyoming, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for UNLV. They are playing their best basketball of the season but coming off a home loss on Saturday vs Boise State, the highest rated and 1st place team in the Mountain West. While the Rebels last played on Saturday, Wyoming beat Nevada at home on Saturday, lost to San Diego State at home on Monday and now travel to UNLV for their 3rd game in 5 days. Coming off an always physical game vs the defensive minded Aztecs is always tough especially when having to play on the road just 48 hours later. This is UNLV’s final home game so it will be significant for the 4 Seniors who are in the starting line up. The Rebs have won 3 of their last 4 games including a 21 point win over Colorado State who ranks 20+ spots higher than Wyoming in our power rankings. They have won 4 of their last 5 home games with their only loss coming vs Boise which we discussed above. The Cowboys are solid offensively but their numbers on the road slip fairly drastically. They average 81 PPG at home and that number drops to 68 PPG on the road. UNLV’s defense ranks 2nd in the MWC in eFG% allowed and 1st in 3 point % allowed. They are allowing opponents to score just 61 PPG on just 37% shooting at the Thomas & Mack Center. After winning 21 of their first 24 games, Wyoming is now trending in the wrong direction losing 3 of their last 5. Their only wins during that stretch were at home vs Air Force (10th rated team out of 11 in the MWC) and Nevada who is reeling losing 8 of their last 11. There is a reason the 17-12 team is favored over the 24-6 team in this one. We like UNLV. |
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03-01-22 | Florida v. Vanderbilt | Top | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Vanderbilt pick-em over Florida, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - Vandy is playing their home finale here and they’ll have some extra motivation to knock off Florida after they played perhaps their worst game of the season earlier this year in Gainesville losing 61-42. To say the Commodores played poorly on offense would be an understatement. They made only 29% of their shots, just 17% from deep and only 52% from the FT line. They averaged only 0.72 PPP in that loss which is WAY down from their season average of 1.06 PPP. It was a 3 point game at halftime and Vandy went on to make THREE field goals the entire 2nd half scoring just 14 points. Vandy star forward Scotty Pippen, who will be the best player on the court tonight, played only 20 minutes in that loss due to fou trouble and scored a season low 6 points. Needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. Florida has underachieved all season long, especially on the road where they are just 3-6 SU on the season. Their 3 road wins on the season came vs Georgia, Mizzou, and South Carolina, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. The Gators have a -5 PPG margin on the road and shoot only 28% from beyond the arc. That’s a big problem tonight as Florida relies more on scoring from 3-point range than any other team in the SEC and Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 2nd in the league defending the arc allowing just 28% in conference play. Despite losing 4 of their last 5, we like the way Vandy is playing right now. Two of those losses were on the road vs Tennessee and Auburn, two of the top teams in the country, and both were competitive. Their other 2 losses during that stretch were at home by 2 points vs Alabama (better team than Florida) and by 5 points @ Miss State (better team than Florida). The Commodores continue to be undervalued covering 8 straight games and we have them as a favorite in this game. Take the host to win tonight. |
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02-28-22 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -12.5 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -12 over Kansas State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for one of the best teams in the country. Tech is playing their final home game which will be big as they start 4 Seniors. They are also coming off a disappointing 69-66 loss @ TCU on Saturday. The Red Raiders played a poor game yet still led most of the way. KSU’s first lead of the 2nd half came with just 2:00 minutes remaining. Tech committed a season high 20 turnovers and allowed TCU, who averages 0.96 PPP in conference play, to put up 1.05 PPP. TT’s defense ranks 2nd nationally allowing only 0.86 PPP so you can see that TCU’s offense played well above their heads in that game that still went to the wire. Expect a very good defensive effort from the Raiders tonight at home. KSU has hit the skids losing 3 straight games and their defense has been poor allowing 102, 82, and 74 points in those 3 losses. They now rank 9th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. We look for Tech’s offense to play very well vs the Cats struggling defense while looking for their defense to really slow down Kansas State. Another added incentive is the fact that Texas Tech lost at KSU earlier this year. It was perhaps their worst game of the Big 12 season. The Raiders averaged a terrible 0.77 PPP in that game which was their 3rd lowest mark of the entire season. They were also outrebounded by a Kansas State team they should destroy on the boards which we expect they will tonight. Texas Tech is 17-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 80-58. They are 17-4 ATS their last 21 games as a home favorite and a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss. This one could get ugly. |
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02-27-22 | Nebraska v. Penn State -10.5 | Top | 93-70 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -10.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 7 PM ET - PSU playing solid basketball right now winning 3 of their last 4 games including 3 straight at home. This will be their home finale so they will bring everything they’ve got on Sunday night. Nebraska, on the other hand, could be a bit flat. They gave Iowa a decent run at home on Friday night before losing by 10 and now 48 hours later they are on the road where they are 0-8 on the season. The Huskers home loss on Friday also guaranteed they will finish in last place in the Big 10. In their road games this year, the Nebraska defense has been non-existent allowing 87 PPG losing by an average margin of 16 PPG. Speaking of defense, they rank dead last in the Big 10 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point % allowed, and 13th in 3 point % allowed. Tough to win, or play close, on the road when your defensive numbers look like that. Penn State’s defense, on the other hand, has been outstanding allowing opponents to hit only 41% of their shots on the season. At home they have played 8 conference games winning 6. Their only losses here have come by 1 point vs Michigan and vs Purdue. The Nittany Lion defense has held 6 of their 8 opponents at home to 60 points or less. Nebraska has played 6 Big 10 road games (lost all 6) and 5 of those games were double digit losses. PSU gets the win and cover at home. |
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02-26-22 | Colorado State v. Utah State -2 | Top | 66-55 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -2 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This line speaks volumes in our opinion. Looks to good to be true if you like Colorado State in this one. The team who sits at 22-4 and 12-4 in the Mountain West is an underdog to the team whose record is 16-13 overall and just 7-9 in conference play. There is a reason USU is favored here. They are better than their overall record. CSU has a great offense ranking 19th nationally in efficiency. Utah State is right there with the Rams ranking 35th nationally in offensive efficiency. USU is the better defense allowing 0.98 PPP in MWC play while Colorado State allows 1.01. Despite their record disparity, Utah State actually has a better points per possession differential in conference play at +6.4 to CSU’s +6.1. The Aggies played a few key conference games without starting guards Jones & Rock-Lytle losing to Wyoming, Boise State, and Fresno State when one or both were out. They are back and full strength. USU returned a key reserve as Brock Miller vs New Mexico on Tuesday after he missed all games since early January. In their first meeting in mid January the Aggies took CSU to the wire on the road losing 77-72. They made just 4 three pointers in that game with CSU making 10 which was the difference in a tight game. We look for them to shoot much better in their home finale – 48% overall and 35% from 3 at home – on Senior night. Utah State gets the win here. |
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02-26-22 | Auburn v. Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Tennessee -3.5 over Auburn, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Auburn is simply a different team away from home as many college teams are. While they do have a 7-2 road record, losing @ Florida and @ Arkansas, they’ve gone to the wire with a number of lower tier teams in the SEC. That includes barely getting by the 2 lowest rated teams in the conference on the road topping Georgia by 2 and Missouri by 1. They have shot just 41% overall and 28% from 3 point land in their 9 road games this season. That’ll be a problem on Saturday vs a Tennessee defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency allowing just 0.88 PPP on the season. The Tigers have also come back down to earth a bit after winning 19 straight games from late November through early February. They are just 3-2 SU their last 5 games with all 3 wins coming vs team ranked in the bottom 5 in the SEC. Tennessee will be the highest rated team Auburn has faced on the road this year and 2nd highest rated overall only behind Kentucky. The Vols are playing very well right now winning 9 of their last 11 games with their only losses coming @ Texas and @ Arkansas. They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season including a 13 point win over Kentucky (the top rated team in the SEC) and a 4 point win over Arizona (#2 in the country right now per Ken Pom). Going back to the start of last season the Vols are 27-3 SU at home. This season they are holding their opponents to just 59 PPG here at home while winning by an average of 20 PPG. Just a huge home game for Tennessee sitting 2 games behind Auburn and 1 game behind Kentucky in the SEC standings. |
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02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Cleveland State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We jumped on Detroit at home on Sunday vs a red hot Wright State team and picked up a win. The Titans won by 5 points but led by 26 points with just over 12:00 remaining and pretty much dominated a game that Wright State never led. That win moved them to 9-6 in conference play which is quite an accomplishment since 11 of their 15 games have been on the road! Even worse, they played 25 total games this season and only 7 have come at home. They are a perfect 7-0 at home on the season and they’ve won 14 straight as a host dating back to last season. After a 5 game road trip between Feb 4 and Feb 13, Detroit has now played their last 2 games at home, both wins over Northern KY and Wright State, the 3rd and 4th place teams in the Horizon. Cleveland State could be a bit flat here as the clinched the #1 seed in the post-season tourney and conference title @ UWGB on Sunday. In the first meeting back in mid January CSU barely held on for a 2-point win over Detroit at home. The Titans, who are 2nd in the Horizon making 36% of their 3’s, made only 4 of 21 from deep (19%) in that game yet still had a shot to win on the road. Now the Titans are at home where they hit 45% of their 3’s and average 82 PPG with an average winning margin of +18 PPG. We like Detroit to keep their winning ways in tact at home tonight. |
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02-23-22 | Texas State v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 55-52 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Alabama -3 over Texas State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The 5th place team in the Sun Belt is a 3 point favorite over the 1st place team in the league in this game. That may seem surprising but we have USA rated higher overall and so does Ken Pom. This line says that these teams are basically even on a neutral court and we don’t agree. South Alabama is the better team, especially at home where they are 12-1 SU on the season with their average PPG margin of +20. They allow just 58 PPG at home this season and Texas State has struggled offensively on the road putting up only 65 PPG. We also get the Jaguars off a loss @ Appalachian State on Saturday. Texas State comes in having won 7 straight games yet the oddsmakers still have them as underdogs. The Bobcats have played the easiest schedule in the Sun Belt and 5 of their 7 most recent wins have come vs teams ranked in the bottom 5 in the league. Texas State is just 5-5 on the road with a PPG differential of -4. If you subtract their 2 road games vs teams ranked below 300, the Bobcats are 3-5 on the road with 4 of the 5 losses coming by double digits. These 2 did not meet last year but the home team has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. Texas State has played 5 of their last 7 games at home and now they face the highest rated team they’ve played on the road this season on conference play. We like South Alabama to win and cover here. |
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02-22-22 | UNLV v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 62-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Nevada -2.5 over UNLV, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - The Rebels are officially overvalued here having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They are coming off 2 huge wins over Fresno and CSU. UNLV was a 5 point home underdog in their game Saturday vs Colorado St (they won by 21) and now they are just a short underdog @ Nevada. This line opened pick-em and immediately moved in Nevada’s favor and we agree with that move. We have Nevada as a 3.5 point favorite so still some value on the host. From January 25 – February 8, the Wolfpack went on a 6 game losing streak and 5 of those losses came at the hands of San Diego State, Colorado State (twice), Fresno State, and Utah State – 4 of the 5 highest rated teams in the league. The other loss during that stretch was @ UNLV by the final score of 69-58. Nevada’s offense was outright bad in that game averaging only 0.88 PPP which was their 2nd worst offensive performance in Mountain West play this season. Part of the problem was their best offensive player, Grant Sherfield (19 PPG, 6 APG, and 4 RPG), was out. He actually missed 3 of Nevada’s 6 games during their losing streak which minimizes those results. Since he's come back from injury, the Pack have a 3-1 SU record and they’ve averaged at least 1.15 PPP in each of their 3 wins. UNLV is just 3-6 SU in true road games this year with a PPG margin of -6 in those contests. Since the start of the 2015 season, these 2 rivals have met 7 times on Nevada’s home court and the Wolfpack have won 6 of those games. We’ll lay the small number here. |
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02-22-22 | Michigan State +6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +6.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for MSU. A definite buy low, sell high situation. The Spartans have lost 4 of their last 5 games including 2 in a row @ Penn State and at home vs Illinois. Iowa has won 4 of their last 5 including a big road upset on Saturday @ Ohio State. The Hawkeyes were +5.5 in that game @ OSU and now they are laying 6 or 6.5 at home vs Michigan State. We have OSU & MSU rated only a few spots apart in our power ratings so this is a big adjustment in our opinion. For comparison’s sake let’s take a look at some MSU road lines along with a few Iowa home lines. MSU was +3 @ Wisconsin (and won outright), +2 @ Illinois (and lost by 1), and favored in every other Big 10 road game. Iowa at home was an underdog vs Purdue (and lost), favored by 5 vs Michigan (and lost), and favored by 4.5 vs Indiana. The 3 highest rated teams Iowa has played at home (Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan) all beat them on their own court. This line is set too high based on recent results. Sparty has proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-3 SU record including 2-0 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has a grand total of ONE win this year vs a team ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 45 and that was Saturday vs Ohio State. They are 1-6 SU overall vs top 45 games and Michigan State sits at #27. MSU is the much better defensive team in this one and the Hawkeyes have had problems with teams that are strong on the offensive glass which the Spartans are. Michigan State is also won of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (9th) and they make 80% of their FT’s in conference play. We think this one will be tight and we’ll take the generous points. |
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02-20-22 | Wright State v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
#820 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Wright State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The fact that Detroit has a record above .500 in the Horizon is amazing. They are 8-6 in conference play and have played 11 of those 14 games on the road! You read that correctly. They’ve only played 3 home games in Horizon League play. Even worse, they played 24 total games this season and only 6 have come at home. They are a perfect 6-0 at home on the season. They beat Northern Kentucky here at home on Friday night and they close out the season with 3 more at home including today’s game vs Wright State. The Raiders are coming off a huge road upset on Friday night knocking off 2nd place Oakland 78-74. Now on the road for an early afternoon game means from the time their Friday night game tipped off to the start of this game is just 39 hours. That’s a tough turnaround for Wright State to come back to earth and get ready for another solid opponent after a big road win. The Raiders already have 3 conference road losses to teams ranked lower in Ken Pom than this Detroit team. The Titans have been waiting for this rematch as well after getting blasted 90-59 @ Wright State in early February. It was by far their worst performance of the season and they are set to atone for that today at home. WSU was favored by 4 in that game at home and now they are favored in this one on the road. Almost no adjustment in the line which is a mistake. We have Detroit as a small favorite in this game. The Titans shot terribly in the first match up including just 27% from 3 and on the season they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the Horizon. Wright State struggles to defend the arc ranking 8th in the league to those results from game 1 were not the norm. Detroit is undervalued due to their overall record which is the result of a brutally tough schedule. The catch Wright in an overconfident spot here as a road favorite. Take Detroit to win at home. |
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02-19-22 | Tennessee v. Arkansas -3 | Top | 48-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for Tennessee coming off their big revenge win at home over Kentucky on Tuesday. It was a game the Vols had circled after getting blasted by the Wildcats 107-79 in their first meeting this season. Now they have to go on the road to play a red hot Arkansas team who will have this game circled getting a chance to knock off a highly rated team. The Razors have already proven they can do just that as they beat Auburn here 11 days ago giving the Tigers their only SEC loss and just their 2nd loss of the entire season. Arkansas has won 10 of their last 11 games to move into 3rd place in the SEC, one game behind Tennessee. Their only loss during that 11 game stretch was @ Alabama by 1 point. The Vols are 3-3 on the road in conference play with all 3 of those wins coming vs teams that all currently have losing records in SEC play (Vandy, South Carolina, and Miss St). They’ve faced 3 top half of the conference teams on the road and lost all 3 vs Kentucky, LSU, and Alabama. The Vols have averaged just 69 PPG on the road and they are taking on an Arkansas team that put up 82 PPG at home and limits their opponents to just 65 PPG. Their defense ranks #1 in the SEC (conference games) in defensive efficiency and they are allowing opponents to hit only 29% of their 3’s which will be key vs a UT team that shoots a lot of them. The Razorbacks have been nearly unbeatable at home winning 32 of their las 34 games here at Bud Walton Arena and the last time UT won here was way back in 2009. We don’t get Arkansas at home as a low favorite like this very often and we’re going to take advantage of it. The Razors lost most recent meeting between these teams last January but that one was at Tennessee. Now they avenge that loss as they catch the Vols off the huge revenge win versus Kentucky. Great set up here and value with the home team and we take advantage of it. |
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02-18-22 | Butler +8.5 v. St. John's | Top | 57-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler +8.5 over St Johns, Friday at 5 PM ET - These 2 played just 2 weeks ago and St Johns squeaked out a 75-72 win. The 3 point margin of victory was the Johnnies largest lead of the game and their first lead of the 2nd half came with just 4 minutes remaining in the game. STJ attempted 25 FT’s in the game (made 21) while Butler attempted just 5 FT’s (made 4) and yet still led for the majority of the 2nd half. We don’t expect that to happen again as ST John’s fouls more than any other team in the Big East. The Johnnies are also the worst FT shooting team in the conference hitting only 64% on the season yet made 84% in the first meeting. Butler is playing their best basketball of the season right now. After starting the Big East with a 2-6 record, the Bulldogs have now won 4 of their last 7 games and their 3 losses have come by a combined 7 points. Two of Butler’s top players, Nze and Hodges, missed their game @ DePaul on Tuesday and they still knocked off the Demons on the road. Both players are listed as game time decisions on Friday and we’ll keep a very close eye on that. If they both play, Butler can absolutely pull this upset. St John’s has already lost 5 home games this year including 4 in conference play. This has been a close series with 4 of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less or in OT. Take the points here. |
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02-17-22 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Robert Morris -14.5 | Top | 66-56 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Robert Morris -14.5 over IUPUI, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IUPUI has 2 wins on the season vs Spalding and East West. No we didn’t make those up. They are 0-22 SU vs Division 1 teams and 0-13 in Horizon League play with 10 of those 13 losses coming by at least 30 points. Their offense is the worst in college basketball averaging just 51 PPG on the season. If you throw out their games vs the 2 non Division 1 opponents, IUPUI has reached 60 points ONE TIME in 22 games. They rank dead last in the country (358th) in offensive efficiency, 356th in eFG%, and 358th in turnover percentage coughing up the ball over 26% of the time! Laying big points vs this team isn’t as risky as most since they can’t score points and their possessions are limited due to their heavy TO rate. Robert Morris started the conference season losing 7 straight games but they have improved drastically going 5-5 since that poor start. They faced this IUPUI team on the road earlier this month and won by 17. The Colonials average 72 PPG at home which should be more than enough vs this inept IUPUI offense that doesn’t even average 50 PPG on the road (49 PPG). Not only are the Jaguars bad, they’ve gone through massive attrition this year. They are down to 6 scholarship players and that’s it. They have played no more than 6 players in any of their last 8 games. They have ONE player coming off the bench. This is a brutal spot for a thin, bad team as IUPUI is playing their 4th straight road game in the span of 8 days. They’ve traveled to Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and now Pennsylvania in the last 8 days. Another blowout awaits the Jaguars tonight. |
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02-17-22 | Towson -3 v. NC-Wilmington | 79-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
#743 ASA PLAY ON 8* Towson -3 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 6 PM ET - Towson is the best team in the Colonial (highest rated) and has been the entire season. They are the only team in the conference ranked inside the top 100. The Tigers currently sit in 2nd place in the league 1 game behind tonight’s opponents, UNCW. The Seahawks have been very fortunate this season as they’ve been down by double digits in a number of games in which they came back to win. They rank 196th in the nation which is actually 6th in the Colonial despite sitting in 1st place. They are coming off back to back tight home wins vs Charleston (won by 6) and William & Mary (in OT) who is the worst team in the conference ranked 337th. This is also a huge revenger for Towson who blew a double digit 2nd half lead at home and lost in OT vs UNCW. The Tigers are clearly the best team in the conference ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency. They have proven they can get it done on the road with an 8-4 SU record and their only 2 conference losses on the road were down to the wire and they played each of those games without one of their key players. They should dominate the boards here as they rank 13th in the nation in offensive rebounding and UNCW ranks dead last in the Colonial in defensive rebounding. A loss here would be devastating for Towson as they would drop 2 full games behind Wilmington with only 4 remaining. We’ll side with the much better overall team to get the road win. |
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02-16-22 | Illinois v. Rutgers +4.5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
#686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4.5 over Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The RAC is one of the toughest venues in college basketball. This season alone Rutgers has already beaten Purdue, Michigan St, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State here at home. Those are 5 of the top 7 rated teams in the Big 10 with only Wisconsin and Illinois missing off the list. That’s because they haven’t played host to those teams yet and they get their shot at the Illini tonight. The Scarlet Knights are 39-7 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. On top of that none of those 7 losses have come by double digits so even their setbacks have been close. Rutgers is a sneaky 9-5 in conference play and if the Illini don’t come ready they’ll get knocked off. They may anyway. Rutgers has won 10 of their last 14 games and 3 of those 4 losses have come by 1, 3, and 8 points. Illinois has a huge game vs Michigan State on deck. Their last 2 games they struggled with Northwestern winning by 7 at home and got smoked at Purdue. The Illini are 2-2 their last 4 road games losing big to Purdue & Maryland, squeaking by NW by 3, and winning impressively @ Indiana. Rutgers defense has been impressive all season but it has been great at home. They have allowed just 59 PPG at the RAC on just 39% shooting. Illinois has a point margin of just +3 PPG on the road and this will be one of their toughest road dates of the season. The host has won 8 of the last 10 in this series and we give Rutgers a great shot at the upset. If not, we’re still getting a cushion here at +4.5. |
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02-15-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State +3 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +3 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Penn State comes in off 3 straight losses and each of gone to the wire. They lost @ Wisconsin by 2 points, home vs Michigan by 1-point and @ Minnesota by 6. This team has been very solid and competitive at home with wins over Iowa, Indiana, and Rutgers along with that 1 point loss vs Michigan we stated above. The Nittany Lions have covered 6 in a row at home. This is a dangerous spot for MSU who is coming off a huge home win over Indiana and Sparty has a home date with Big 10 leading Illinois this weekend. The Spartans also beat PSU by 16 earlier this year so it might be tough for them to fully focus here with a big look ahead game on deck. They’ve already shown they aren’t great handling short term success as they are 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU win. PSU is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (351st) and they will turn this game into a crawl which is not how Michigan State likes to play. Versus the 2 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 this year besides Penn State, MSU has been blown out @ Rutgers and played 2 close games vs Minnesota (winning by 2 & 7). Sparty has played the easiest schedule thus far in Big 10 play (PSU has played the 2nd most difficult) and vs bottom half of the league teams on the road they haven’t been overly impressive. They were destroyed @ Rutgers, won @ Maryland by 2, and won @ Northwestern by 6 after trailing by 13. PSU is a very solid defensive team (54th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they hold opponents to just 64 PPG here at home. They have great shot at the home upset here and we’ll take the points. |
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02-13-22 | Marshall v. UTEP -6 | Top | 88-79 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTEP -6 over Marshall, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on Marshall on Thursday night at home vs FIU in what we thought was a perfect setup for the Herd to pick up a win. They played a disappointing game and sent us home with a loss getting upended 72-71. That dropped Marshall to 1-10 SU in CUSA play and we expect them to be flat here going on the road a few days after losing a home game they felt they really needed to win. Speaking of the road, the Herd are 1-9 SU away from home including 0-5 on conference play. All but one of their conference losses have come by more than 10 points with an average loss margin of -15.4 PPG. UTEP is playing well winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ North Texas, the #2 rated team in the league, by 8 on Monday. That gives UTEP nearly a full week to get ready for this game and Marshall just played on Thursday as we mentioned. The Miners will give the Marshall offense big time problems in this one. They rank 2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, and 1st in 3-point FG% defense. Marshall ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and eFG%. The UTEP defense also creates a lot of turnovers (2nd in conference) and Marshall coughs the ball up a lot (12th in the conference). On the other end the Miners shoot a lot of 3’s and they shoot them well ranking 2nd in CUSA in 3 point FG%. Marshall’s defense ranks 331st at the arc. Lastly if they need to salt this one away late, UTEP hits 77% of their FT’s as a team. This one sets up very nicely for the host. |
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02-12-22 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Vanderbilt +12.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Vandy is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they are catching Tennessee in a tough spot. The Commodores have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 7 points @ Kentucky. The Vols are coming off a huge road win @ Mississippi State in a game that was much closer than the final score which was 72-63. In that win the Vols never led by more than 5 until under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and outscored the Bulldogs 11-2 in the final 3:00 minutes. They played that game without one of their best players, Nkamhoua, who was lost for the season in their game prior to playing MSU. We think that’ll take a toll on UT as we move forward. Tennessee also hosts a huge game on Tuesday with Kentucky coming to town. Good chance they don’t play at their peak here vs a team they beat 68-60 on the road earlier this season. In that game, Vandy led at half and never trailed by more than 8 points. The Commodores match up nicely here as UT takes a lot of 3’s and Vanderbilt is #1 in the SEC defending the arc allowing just 27%. In the first game they held the Vols to just 22% from deep but Tennessee made 9 more FT’s which was the difference in the game. On the other side, almost 40% of Vandy’s points come from beyond the arc (1st in the league) and UT’s defensive weakness is defending the 3 ranking 11th in the SEC. The Dores have proven they can get it done on the road with 4 true road wins this season (including @ Arkansas who is 19-5 overall and 8-3 in the SEC). They actually shoot better on the road this season from both inside and outside the arc. We think they’ll give Tennessee a real scare in this one and we’ll grab double digits. |
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02-12-22 | Georgia State -1 v. Appalachian State | 58-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
#685 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State -1 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is begging you to take App State. The Mountaineers are 10-3 and in 1st place in the Sun Belt and Georgia State is 4-5 in league play yet this is right around a pick-em and App State is the home team? The Panthers are finally playing like they should have been all season long after returning their top 6 players from a team that won the Sun Belt East regular season title 4 games ahead of App State in the loss column. They have now won 4 of their last 5 including 3 road games. They are 3-1 SU on the road in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming @ South Alabama, the highest rated team in the conference. The game prior to starting conference play the Panthers took Georgia Tech to OT on the road before losing. Georgia State is the #1 defense in the Sun Belt allowing conference opponents to average just 0.94 PPP. They also create more turnovers than any other team in the league and that with a top notch defense is a very tough combination to face offensively. These 2 met a few weeks ago and App State came away with a 61-60 win on a made shot as time expired. Ga State shot just 38% from the field (App State hit 44%) and just 24% from deep (App State hit 38% of their 3’s). Despite that the game went to the wire as the Panthers dominated the boards (+13) including 15 offensive rebounds which wasn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the conference. We expect Ga State to shoot better here and if they control the boards again, which they should, they’ll walk away with another road win. |
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02-10-22 | Florida International v. Marshall -4.5 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#764 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall -4.5 over Florida International, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played just a few weeks ago and Marshall was favored by -2.5 / -3 on the road in that one. Now we’re getting them at home -4.5 / -5. Great value here. A main reason for the low number is Marshall’s 1-9 CUSA record. Let’s keep in mind the Herd have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play and #117 overall – the most difficult of any CUSA team. FIU, on the other hand, has played the #310 SOS which is the easiest in CUSA and despite that they are just 3-8 in conference play. In their first meeting FIU pulled off a 4 point win but now Marshall gets them at home where they play much better. In fact, Marshall’s most recent home game was a win over UAB, the top team in the conference. They also played North Texas and MTSU (2 of the top teams in the league) to the wire here before losing tight games. The Herd have played 5 conference home games and 4 of those were vs teams ranked in the top half of CUSA. FIU is 0-8 SU on the road this year losing by an average of 11 PPG while shooting only 37%. They’ve lost 16 straight road games dating back to last season. The Panthers are in a tough schedule spot having played Saturday & Monday already now traveling just a few days later. Marshall has been off since Saturday. FIU has never won @ Marshall. They are 0-7 SU with every loss coming by at least 9 points. We’ll take Marshall here. |
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02-09-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Bradley +4.5 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
#738 ASA PLAY ON 8* Bradley +4.5 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game for Loyola. The Ramblers are coming off a huge road win @ Missouri State as they moved into 1st place in the MVC with the win. It was a game they had circled in red after losing at home to Missouri State by 10 points just a few weeks ago. So this will be the 2nd straight road game for the Ramblers and they have another huge game on deck vs Northern Iowa who currently sits in 2nd place in the conference. Our power ratings have Loyola as a 1-point favorite so we like the value here. Bradley is playing their best basketball of the season winning 5 of their last 6 both SU & ATS. The Braves match up very well with Loyola as they showed in the first meeting this year blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead on the road and losing in OT. Loyola had a big advantage at the FT line at +13 and still couldn’t put this Bradley team away. The Braves have a big size advantage over Loyola and they are the #1 rebounding team in the conference so they should control the interior. Bradley is also outstanding defensively ranking 1st in the MVC in eFG% allowed and 2nd in efficiency so they should be able to limit Loyola offensively. We have Bradley currently rated as the 3rd best team in this conference behind Loyola and Missouri State. It looks like the Ramblers will also be without starting guard Kennedy as he is dealing with a knee issue. Bradley is more than capable of winning this game and we’re getting a full 4 points so we’ll grab it. |
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02-09-22 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State +1.5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State +1.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as the favorite in this game so we’re taking the points with the home team. The Bulldogs are an impressive 12-1 SU at home this season where they shoot 50% as a team with an average winning margin of +16 PPG. They are a perfect 5-0 SU at home in SEC play while going 0-5 SU on the road for the largest home/road dichotomy in the league. They are coming off a road loss @ red hot Arkansas (8 straight wins) but played the Razors to the wire (down by 2 with 1:00 minute remaining) before losing. Tennessee is coming off a blowout road win over South Carolina (3rd lowest rated team in the SEC) but the Vols still have a losing road record at 3-4 SU. Their 3 road wins have come vs teams that are currently rated 80th or lower and they just starting forward Nkamhoua (9 PPG / 6 RPG) to a season ending ankle injury vs South Carolina over the weekend. UT’s overall defensive numbers are really high but since getting into SEC play they’ve fallen off drastically. In SEC games only the Vols defense ranks 11th in eFG% allowed, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 10th in 2-point % allowed. That’s alarming for a team that hangs their hat on defense. MSU ranks 3rd in the SEC in offensive efficiency so they should have plenty of success in this one. Tennessee has just 2 wins in conference play vs top 8 in the league (LSU & Florida both at home), all other wins come vs bottom of the league. They should not be favored in this one and we side with the home dog. |
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02-08-22 | Illinois +6 v. Purdue | 68-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
#663 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +6 over Purdue, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Tough to lay this many points right now vs a full strength Illinois team that is playing lights out. We faded the Illini on Saturday as a road favorite @ Indiana in a perfect spot for a letdown vs a rested Hoosier team coming in with a week off. Illinois had just beaten Wisconsin by 13 points to move into 1st place in the conference and they had this huge game on deck. Didn’t matter they handled IU by a final score of 74-57 giving the Hoosiers just their 2nd home loss of the season. We were dead wrong on that one. Now we’re getting a full 6 points with Illinois and they are in revenge mode after losing in double OT at home to the Boilers. We’ll put an asterisk by that loss as Illini All American center Kofi Cockburn suffered a concussion in that game (sat out the next 2 games) and had his worst outing of the season with 10 points and 5 rebounds in just 22 minutes before fouling out. Purdue had a huge advantage from the FT line making 26 of 32 with Illinois making 12 of 15 yet this game still went to 2 overtimes. Purdue has won 5 straight since their loss @ Indiana but their last 2 home games have gone to the wire beating OSU by 3 on a last second 3 pointer and then topping Michigan by 6 over the weekend. The Boilers like to bully teams inside on the boards with their size but Illinois matches up very well in that regard with Cockburn. The Illini are the #1 defense in the Big 10 efficiency wise along with eFG% allowed. They also are a very good perimeter defensive team which will be problems for Purdue as they rely quite heavily on the 3 point shot. The Illini have won 10 of their last 12 games with their only losses coming when Cockburn was limited due to a concussion (vs Purdue) or didn’t play in the game. We anticipate this game being close throughout and getting this many points with the Illini is a take for us. |
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02-08-22 | Marquette +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
#605 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +7 over UConn, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Marquette is no doubt the hottest team in the Big East winning 8 of their last 9 with their only loss during that stretch by just 2 points @ Providence who is 10-1 in the Big East and 20-2 overall. The Golden Eagles started this run with a massacre of that same Providence team winning by 30+ points at home giving the Friars their only conference loss this season. Not only did they top the Friars, but Marquette has also beaten Villanova (twice), Seton Hall (twice), and Xavier during this run. We feel UConn is a bit overvalued right now. Half of their Big East wins have been by 8 points or less and their 3 other conference wins were vs Butler (twice) and Georgetown, 2 worst teams in the league. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they only team they’ve beaten that ranks in the top half of the conference is this Marquette team. They beat the Golden Eagles by 8 on the road when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak back in December. Marquette also played that game without one of their top players, Daryl Morsell (13.5 PPG), who is also their top perimeter defender. Even with Morsell out and Marquette in a bit of a slump in mid December, this was still a very close game throughout. The Eagles are now playing at another level as we discussed. UConn is a poor 3-point defensive team (9th in the Big East) while Marquette is the #1 three point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% in league play. The Eagles have 4 regulars that shoot at least 35% from deep. Marquette is also the #1 defense in conference play in terms of efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3-point % allowed. We give them a great shot to win here and getting 6 points gives us a great cushion. |
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02-07-22 | Kansas v. Texas +1 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -1 over Kansas, Monday at 9 PM ET - Any time a top 10 rated team is an underdog it makes us take a look. Most will automatically take the top rated dog but we often look at the favored team depending on the match up. There is a reason that team is favored vs a highly ranked opponent. Texas is very talented team that plays great defense (9th nationally in defensive efficiency & #1 in the country allowing 55 PPG) and they like to take fast paced teams out of their comfort zone by slowing the pace. That’s not a good match up for Kansas who loves to get up and down the court but will be locked into a half court game here with the Horns (347th in tempo). The team most comparable to the Longhorns in the Big 12 would be Texas Tech. The Red Raiders also play great defense yet like a slow tempo game. Tech gave Kansas all kinds of problems in their 2 meetings beating the Jayhawks by 8 at home and losing on the road in double OT. Texas has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that run coming @ Texas Tech. They just walloped a good Iowa State team by 22 points here on Saturday. They are 14-1 at home with a point margin of +21 per game. They catch Kansas off a huge home win over Baylor on Saturday and this will be the first time this season the Jayhawks are facing one of the top 4 teams in the Big 12 on the road. Two of KU’s conference road games were down to the wire where they came from a 2nd half deficit to top KSU and Oklahoma each by just 3 points – both teams ranked far lower than Texas. The Horns match up very well here with KU as they have length and defend the interior very well which is where the Jayhawks like to operate. Texas gets the win at home. |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra -7.5 | 71-73 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
#872 ASA PLAY ON 8* Hofstra -7.5 over UNC Wilmington, Monday at 5 PM ET - UNCW sits on top of the Colonial with a 7-1 conference record. They have been one of the luckiest teams in the nation and we expect that to start to bite them, especially on the road. They have won 13 of their last 14 games and they’ve trailed by double digits in 10 of those 14 games. One of those come from behind wins came at home vs this Hofstra team just 10 days ago. The Seahawks trailed by as much as 15 in that game and didn’t take their first lead until the 2nd half. They led for less than 10 minutes in the game yet won by 6. Hofstra was favored by 4 in that road game and now we’re getting them only a few points higher at home. Hofstra now gets a shot a quick revenge here at home where they have been outstanding. The Pride are 8-1 at home winning by an average score of 85-70 shooting over 50% from the field and 37% from 3. They’ve also played the much tougher schedule facing 7 top 100 teams on the season to just 1 top 100 team for UNCW. Hofstra is actually the 2nd highest rated team that Wilmington will have played this season only behind Towson. Hofstra dominated the boards in their meeting 10 days ago (+13) but shot just 16% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. UNC Wilmington also sits in a brutal scheduling spot playing their 3rd road game 5 days having traveled Elon (North Carolina), William & Mary (Virginia) and now Hofstra (New York). The Pride, on the other hand, are playing their 3rd straight home game. There is a reason the team that sits in 3rd place in the CAA is favored by 7.5 vs the team that is in 1st place. Lay it with Hofstra. |
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02-06-22 | Nevada v. San Diego State -12.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -12 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - SDSU has been money coming off a loss this season. They’ve also been money at home and we get both here. The Aztecs lost 53-52 @ Colorado State on Friday after making a furious comeback late. They were down 12 with just over 2 minutes remaining and took the lead with 14 seconds remaining at CSU, a very tough place to play. Now they are back home where they are 10-1 on the season with a point differential of +14 per game. In conference play their 3 home wins have come by margins of 30, 25, and 25 points and two of those were bounce back games off a loss. Nevada will be on the road for their 3rd game in just 6 days. The Wolfpack lost Tuesday @ UNLV by 11, Friday @ Fresno by 17 and they are now back at it on the road less than 48 hours later. They are just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Air Force, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. Nevada has been without 2 of their top players, Sherfield and Washington, the last few games due to injury and there is a good chance they won’t be back here. Their offense has been brutal during their current 4 game losing streak scoring 66, 49, 58, and 56 points in those games. We don’t anticipate it getting any better here facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and 4th in eFG% allowed. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to score more than 55 points in any of their conference home games. Offensively they’ve scored at least 72 points in 4 of their last 5 home games and most likely won’t need to get to that number to cover this game. We like San Diego State to roll up a big win. |
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02-05-22 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado -9 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - CU is coming off a home loss and we really like this spot for the Buffs. They lost here vs a red hot Oregon team (won 8 of last 9) on Thursday night and this becomes a must win with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. The Buffs are 5-7 in league play but they’ve played the toughest strength of schedule in Pac 12 play to date. They do have 4 homes losses this year but they are vs the 3 of the 4 highest rated teams in the conference (UCLA, USC, Oregon) along with Tennessee who is one of the best teams in the country. Oregon State is rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. They are 3-16 overall on the season and just 1-8 in conference play. Their wins this year have come vs Portland State (274th ranked team), Nicholls State (217th ranked team), and Utah (2-11 record in the Pac 12 ahead of only Oregon St). On the road this team is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS. They lost @ Utah who is 2-11 in the conference by 25 points on Thursday night. The Beavers are getting outscored by an average of 14 PPG on the road and shooting only 39%. On top of all that, this is the toughest back to back in the conference and has been known as such for a long time. Playing in altitude @ Utah followed up by playing in altitude again @ Colorado 2 days later is brutal. OSU has the worst defensive efficiency in Pac 12 play this season and they are also last in eFG% defense. And they foul a lot which is good for Colorado who shoots 74% from the FT line as a team. 7 of OSU’s 8 conference losses have come by double digits and this has the makings of a blow out. Take the Buffs at home. |
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02-05-22 | Illinois v. Indiana -1 | 74-57 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
#606 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana -1 over Illinois, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is a huge home game for the Hoosiers who are currently safely in the Big Dance, however with a number of really tough road games coming up this month (@ Mich State, @ Purdue, @ Ohio St) they need to pick up all the resume’ building wins they can. They are catching Illinois is a perfect spot for an update and the Illini just beat Wisconsin at home on Wednesday to move into 1st place in the Big 10. Indiana has been off since last Saturday so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and prepare for this one. The Hoosiers defense which is ranked #1 in the Big 10 in efficiency, matches up very well with this Illini offense. On Wednesday Illinois killed Wisconsin inside with Kofi Coburn 37 points in 16 of 19 shooting. That’ll be much tougher here vs an Indiana team that ranks 5th nationally defending inside the arc allowing opponents to make only 41% of their 2 point shots. That means the Illini will most likely have to be on from beyond the arc to have a shot here and we can’t anticipate that from a team that ranks 9th in the Big 10 (conference play) hitting just 33.8% of their 3’s. The Illini have played the easiest Big 10 road schedule to date. Their last 4 conference road games have come vs Minnesota, Northwestern, Maryland, and Nebraska – the 4 teams that sit at the bottom of the Big 10 standings all with 3-8 records or worse. Indiana sits with a near perfect 13-1 SU record at home with their only loss coming vs Michigan and that was a definite letdown spot just 3 days after the Hoosiers knocked off Purdue here at home. They’ll be more than ready for this home game after blowing a 2nd half lead here last year vs Illinois and losing in OT. Since the start of the 2018 season Indiana has been a home dog 10 times and covered 70% of those games (7). Indiana gets the home win. |
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02-04-22 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Diego State, Friday at 9 PM ET - CSU was 16-1 entering last weekend and they proceeded to lose 2 straight vs UNLV and in OT @ Wyoming. We like them to bounce back at home in Moby Arena where they have won 27 of their last 30 games! It can be tough for teams to come into high altitude and play well which is one of the many reasons that CSU has such a strong home court. San Diego State attempted was in a similar situation last week traveling to play Utah State in altitude and they lost by 18. SDSU then went home and blasted New Mexico so they are coming off a win. The Rams are fantastic offensive team ranking 18th in offensive efficiency nationally, 7th in eFG%, 18th in 3-point %, and 12th in 2-point %. They also make 79% of their free throws. San Diego State really struggles on offense at times. Especially on the road where they are averaging just 59 PPG on 37% shooting. They have played just 4 true road games and they are 1-3 SU in those games. This is a big time revenger for CSU after losing by 30 @ San Diego State one month ago. The normally sharp shooting Rams hit just 28% of their shots in that game and only 15% of their 3’s. SDSU is very good defensively but we look for a much better offensive performance from Colorado State who averages 83 PPG at home while shooting 52% overall and 40% from deep. The Aztecs will have trouble keeping up offensively here and we side with Colorado State to win and cover this short number at home. |
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02-03-22 | Washington v. California -2 | Top | 84-63 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California -2 over Washington, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Cal has lost 8 straight games and now they are a favorite in this one. We actually have the Bears power rated as a 4.5 points favorite here so we like the value with the team coming off a big stretch of losses. They have a misleading 2-9 record in Pac 12 play as over half of those losses (5) have come vs the top 3 teams in the conference (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). They have lost 3 straight home games, however those were again vs the top teams in the Pac 12 (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). Prior to that the Bears had won 9 straight home games. Washington is 6-3 in conference play but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in league play having played Arizona just once and they have not faced USC or UCLA. The Huskies do have 2 conference road wins but those came vs Oregon State and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 3 conference road games resulted in losses of 28, 16, and 14 points. UW just struggled big time with Utah at home over the weekend winning in double OT. At this number the oddsmakers are pretty much asking Washington to win on the road and they simply don’t shoot the ball well enough to be trusted here. They rank 312th or lower nationally in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. This has been a home team series with the host winning 9 of the last 10 outright and covering 7 in a row. Cal views this match up as a great chance to end their losing streak and they’ll bring a great effort at home tonight. Lay the small number. |
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02-02-22 | Drake v. Indiana State +4 | 85-67 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
#684 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana State +4 over Drake, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game for the road favorite. Drake is in a prime letdown spot here as they are coming off a huge home win vs Loyola over the weekend and they have a game vs arch rival Northern Iowa on deck. ISU has lost 5 of their last but they’ve been very competitive with only 1 of those losses coming by more than 8 points (@ Bradley on Sunday – we were on the Braves!). Their win during that stretch was at home vs Missouri State who is rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC behind Loyola. ISU has played the toughest schedule in the league have already faced Loyola twice (ISU led Loyola for most of the game at home and lost), Bradley twice (won one and lost one), Missouri State (ISU won), Northern Iowa (ISU lost in OT), and Southern Illinois – all of the top teams in the conference. The Sycamores score points from beyond the arc than any other team in the conference and they shoot it very well from deep at home (almost 38%). That is Drake’s weak point on defense as they rank 8th in the MVC defending the arc. The Bulldogs also foul more than any team in the league so we expect Indiana State to be at the line a lot in this game where they hit 77% in conference play. Drake was the biggest money maker in college basketball last season with a ridiculous 20-5 ATS record during the regular season. Because of that, they have officially been overvalued this season with a 5-14 ATS record and they have covered just ONE of their last 10 road games. We like ISU to pull the upset here. |
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02-02-22 | Purdue v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 88-73 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
#672 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Minnesota +10.5 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line is off. Our power ratings have Purdue -8.5. For comparison’s sake, Minnesota was just +11 @ Wisconsin on Sunday and now they are getting basically the same number at home vs Purdue. The Boilers are in a tough spot coming off an important 81-78 home win vs Ohio State on Sunday. They hit a tough 3-point shot at the buzzer to get that win. Purdue plays another important game at home on Saturday vs Michigan. In the meantime they are @ Minnesota who sits at 2-7 in Big 10 play and this sets up as a perfect spot for a Boilermaker letdown. They have played just 5 true road games on the year and they have a 3-2 record in those games with none of their wins coming by more than 10 points (losses @ Rutgers and @ Indiana). They average 84 PPG overall this season but that drops by 7 points when they have played on the road. Purdue’s road point margin is just +4 per game. The Gophers are finally back to full strength after their Covid slow down. They were missing key players on and off over the last few weeks but had everyone back for the first time in awhile in their game @ Wisconsin on Saturday, including big man Eric Curry who hadn’t played since January 12th. They gave the Badgers all they could handle in a 66-60 loss – game was tied 60-60 with 2:20 remaining. Minnesota is a bit undervalued in our opinion and they’ve been a very competitive team despite their 7 losses. Only 1 of those losses came by more than 13 points. Their average point margin in Big 10 play is -6.5 points per game and we think they keep this one close. |
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02-02-22 | St. Louis v. George Mason +2 | Top | 92-90 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* George Mason +2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on George Mason one week ago today as a home dog vs St Bonnies and picked up a nice win with the Colonials coming out on top 75-66. We’re getting the underrated GM team at home as a dog again and we’re jumping on them vs St Louis. They are playing really good basketball right now winning 7 of their last 9 games with their lone losses coming by 1 point @ George Washington, a game Mason played without their leading scorer Oduro, and @ Kansas by just 9 points. GM is a very good shooting team ranking 14th nationally in eFG% and 15th in 2-point FG%. They are tough to guard with 4 players averaging double digit points including 3 key transfers from Colorado, Tennessee, and Morehead State. St Louis is 5-2 in A10 play but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the conference. The Billikens have played ONE team on the road that ranks in the top 7 in the conference and that was a loss @ Dayton. SLU has historically struggled on the road with a 2-3 record this season and they are 13-28 in conference road games under head coach Travis Ford. They are coming off a rare road win on Saturday vs Duquesne, one of the two worst teams in the conference, and they are now on the road for the 2nd straight game. George Mason is 8-1 at home this season with a +13 PPG margin and they are also 6-1 ATS as a dog this season. We like the Colonials to get it done again at home vs SLU. |
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02-01-22 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -7.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -8 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bad spot and bad match up for South Carolina. They are catching MSU coming off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the nation. The Bulldogs lost @ Kentucky last Tuesday and took the Cats to OT on the road. Then they traveled to Texas Tech and they were out of gas both physically and emotionally after their Kentucky loss. Noticed it very early in the game and Tech rolled up an easy win. Now back at home where MSU is 4-0 in SEC play (11-1 overall) winning by an average of 12.5 points per game in league play. They have a +16 points per game margin in all 12 home games with 9 of their 11 wins coming by double digits. South Carolina is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday. In SEC play the Gamecocks have a points per possession margin of -0.4 and MSU is +0.5 in that category. SC ranks 13th in the SEC (league games) in offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 13th in TO margin where they cough it up a whopping 23% of the time. They are also a poor defensive rebounding team (308th nationally) and MSU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. Those 2 things alone (TO’s and rebounding) should lead to a bunch of extra possessions for the home team. Since South Carolina is a poor shooting team, they rely on their defense to create TO’s which turn into easy baskets. That’ll be tough here vs the Bulldogs who are #1 in the conference in TO rate giving it away just 16% of the time. The Gamecocks are aggressive defensively thus they foul A LOT. They foul more than any other team in the conference and their opponents % of points from the FT line is nearly 25% which is the 7th most in the entire nation. MSU is a solid FT shooting team at 72% while South Carolina has hit just 59% of their FT’s in conference play. Mississippi State by double digits. |
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01-30-22 | Indiana State v. Bradley -7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
#844 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Bradley -7.5 over Indiana State, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Bradley is one of the hottest teams in the MVC winning 5 of their last 6. Their only loss during that stretch was @ Illinois State, a game Bradley led by 20 points late in the first half. Prior to this 6 game stretch, the Braves faced the 2 best teams in the conference, Loyola & Missouri State, and played very well. They lost those games by 2 points vs Mizzou State and in OT @ Loyola, a game they led by 16 in the 2nd half. So this team has been playing outstanding basketball over their last 7 games. Prior to that, they took on this Indiana State team on the road and lost by 5. The Braves were favored by -3.5 on the road in that one and now we’re getting them at -7 (as of this writing) so value on Bradley. In that 5 points loss the more physical Braves dominated the glass (+13) including 14 offensive rebounds. That led to 13 more FG attempts but they simply shot poorly in the loss. We expect them to handle ISU on the glass again here and if they shoot close to the 47% they average at home this should be an easy win. Indiana State is one of the youngest teams in the nation (3 freshmen starting) so it’s understandable why they are just 1-6 SU on the road this season. The Sycamores are also coming off a huge upset at home beating Missouri State earlier this week. They caught Mizzou St off a huge win of their own as they beat Loyola last weekend so it was definitely a letdown spot for the Bears. We like the red hot Braves in this revenge spot. |