Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-10-21 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech +4.5 | 57-49 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
#670 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia Tech +4.5 over Virginia, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Ga Tech @ Duke which turned into a half point loss for us, we think the Jackets are undervalued. They were +6.5 in that game vs the Devils and lost by 7 in a game that was tied with just over 1:00 minute remaining. The Yellow Jackets have been great at home with a perfect ACC record beating the likes of Florida State, UNC, and Clemson. The faced off against this Virginia team in late January on the road and nearly pulled off the upset losing 64-62. In that game GT led by 9 in the 2nd half and UVA’s largest lead of the game was just 4 points. IN that game the Cavs shot 48% from the field at home and still barely hung on to win. UVA is 4-1 on the road in ACC play however they’ve played a very weak conference road slate. Their wins have come vs Notre Dame, Boston College, NC State, and Clemson. The best team they’ve played on the road was Va Tech, a game they lost by 14 on January 30th. While we think UVA is solid, they’ve played the EASIEST schedule thus far in the ACC while Georgia Tech has played the most DIFFICULT schedule in conference play. While the Cavs defense is still very solid, they are not the same shut down unit they’ve been over the last few years. They allow over 41% from the field which ranks them 90th nationally. They’ve allowed over 1.00 PPP in half of their ACC games including their first match up with Ga Tech. We like the Jackets to pull the upset here and we’ll take the points as a nice cushion. |
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02-10-21 | VMI +1 v. Western Carolina | 72-74 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
#661 ASA PLAY ON 8* VMI +1 over Western Carolina, Wed at 7 PM ET - WCU is the last place team in the Southern Conference with a 1-9 record. Their only win was at home vs the Citadel (the lowest rated team in the conference) and that was by just 2 points. Not only was WCU’s win by only 2 points, it was a game they trailed for 85% of the time and their largest lead of that game was 2 points which was the final margin. In other words, this team is very close to being 0-10 in conference play. Their losses have come by an average of 10 PPG. They faced VMI on the road just a few weeks ago and lost by 26 points. So many may be thinking revenge here. Not us. VMI has one of the top offenses in the Southern Conference and as with the first game, we don’t think WCU can keep up. VMI scored 87 points in the first meeting and if they get to at least the mid 70’s here, which we think they will, they will win. When VMI scores at least 71 points, they are 10-4 SU. They are averaging 78 PPG in conference play and should get to at least that in this game. They are facing a WCU defense that stinks. They rank 8th in the conference in defensive efficiency and they are facing a VMI offense that ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 2nd in three point percentage while making 77% of their FT’s in conference play. Western ranks at the bottom of the league in a number of key categories including efficiency and eFG%. VMI has scored at least 78 points in 7 of their 10 Southern conference games with 2 of those games (not scoring at least 78) coming against the #1 and #2 teams in the league in defensive efficiency. Now they face the WORST defensive team in the league in which they scored 87 in the first meeting as we mentioned. The Western Carolina offense has not scored more than 69 points in 5 of their last 7 games. We don’t think they can keep up here and with the line at basically a pick-em we like VMI. |
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02-09-21 | VCU v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dayton +1.5 over VCU, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd and VCU dealt the Flyers their most embarrassing loss of the season winning 66-43. It was their worst defeat in 3 seasons and after the game Dayton head coach Anthony Grant mentioned his disappointment in how his team handled adversity during that contest. Dayton had a school record low 13 points at halftime and the Flyers made only 17 shots the entire game including just 3 three pointers. That wasn’t indicative of this Dayton offense as they rank 2nd in the Atlantic 10 in both 3-point FG% and 2-point FG%. It was simply a terrible performance and a bad spot for Dayton as they were facing a VCU team that blew a 15 point halftime lead and lost by 16 to St Bonnies just a few days earlier. They were ready to play off that loss and it showed. Now we’re getting Dayton as a home dog which we think is some solid value in this spot. They are playing well having won 3 of 4 since that loss @ VCU including wins over St Louis (the highest rated team in the A10) & Rhode Island. They are also at home now where they have won 25 of their last 27 games. The Flyers are shooting 50% overall at home this year and nearly 41% from beyond the arc. VCU is coming off a huge road win last week as they beat Rhode Island 63-62. URI’s best player, Fats Russell (14 PPG), didn’t play in the game and it still went to the wire. In fact, Rhode Island led late and a 3 pointer by VCU with 5 seconds remaining gave them 1-point lead. URI then drew a foul with 1 second left but missed the front end of the bonus giving VCU the 1-point win. It looks like the Rams will be at less than full strength in this game with two of their key reserves, Curry & Clark, both injured and possibly out. You can bet Dayton will be more than ready for this rematch and we expect a much better shooting performance giving them the outright home win in this one. |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4.5 over Oklahoma State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This situation sets up very nicely for KU at home. The Jayhawks are coming off a double digit loss on Saturday @ West Virginia. They are a bit undervalued at home here because they have lost 5 of their last 7 games, however all 5 of those losses come on the road. The fact is, Kansas is much better at home where they are 8-1 this season and 42-2 their last 44 at Allen Fieldhouse. These two met in mid January and KU was favored by 3.5 @ Okie State and now laying right around that number in this game because of their recent 2-5 run. The Jayhawks lost the first meeting 75-70 and they were -11 FT attempts in that game and they were throwing up bricks from deep hitting only 23% of their 3 pointers. Even with that Kansas still led by 3 points with just over 1:00 minute remaining in that road loss. The Cowboys are in a rough spot for a tough road game. They played host to Texas on Saturday and won a thriller in double OT. Three of their four starters logged 40+ minutes on Saturday and they were without one of the better players Moncrieffe (foot) who averages 10 PPG & 5 RPG and he is questionable again on Monday. The Longhorns took OSU to double OT on the road despite making only 20 of their 79 shots (25%) and Texas was a ridiculously poor 5 of 35 from deep (14%). OSU scores 56% of their points inside the arc in Big 12 play but Kansas is #1 in the conference at 2-point defense allowing just 45% shooting by opponents. In the first match up the Cowboys only made 47% of their 2-point shots but were able to make up for it at the FT line in a tight game. This should be a tired team and they most likely won’t have as many calls go their way @ Allen Fieldhouse. While Kansas is down a notch from past years, they are still a very solid team and they’ve dominated this series at home going 23-4 SU their last 27 home meetings with OSU. Last year they were favored by 15 here vs the Cowboys and won by 25. Now we're getting the Jayhawks at just -4.5 a year later in a favorable situation. We like Kansas to cover. |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
#821 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These two met on Friday night and Nevada pulled the upset beating Boise 74-72 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was just the 3rd loss of the year for the Broncos who now stand at 14-3 overall. This situation sets up very similarly to a situation Boise encountered just over a week ago. They were @ Colorado State who is rated right around 30 spots higher than this Nevada team and Boise lost the opener of a 2 game series as a 3-point favorite. They bounced back on the road 2 days later and took out CSU by 8 points. When the Broncos met this Nevada team on Friday night, they led nearly the entire game. They were up by 5 at half and Nevada took their FIRST lead of the 2nd half with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and went on to win by 2. The Wolfpack shot lights out for the game at 53% and still trailed nearly the entire way. It was Nevada’s 2nd highest shooting percentage of the entire year in MWC play (13 games). Can they pull that off again on Sunday? We highly doubt it as we expect Boise, who ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, to clamp down on that end of the court after playing poorly on Friday. While the Broncos defense is one of the best in the MWC, their offense IS the best in the conference as they average 1.16 PPP in league play (1st in the conference). On Friday they were solid on that end of the court (1.07 PPP) but still well below their average. The Broncos also turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions which is very unlike they as they rank 1st in the conference in that category as well coughing it up just on 15% of possessions. So in other words, Nevada played a great game while Boise underperformed in most of their stats and the game still went to the wire. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to last year and we fully expect a top notch performance on Sunday. Lay the small number with Boise State. |
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02-06-21 | Jacksonville State -3 v. SE Missouri State | 66-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
#707 ASA PLAY ON 8* Jacksonville State -3 over SE Missouri State, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Despite their 7-5 OVC record we feel Jax State is one of the top teams in the conference. They’ve already beaten Austin Peay and Murray State on the road, two of the top five teams in the league. They are healthy now after missing a key player for 3 of their 5 conference losses. UNC transfer Huffman missed their loss vs Morehead St (2nd meeting) and Georgia transfer Ngumezi missed their losses vs Morehead St (1st meeting) and Eastern Kentucky. Their only 2 other OVC losses came vs Belmont (the best team on the league) by 7 and vs Eastern KY in OT. They’ve controlled the bottom half of the conference, winning all of their games thus far vs the bottom half of the conference. That’s where SE Missouri sits. They are currently ranked right around 300 in most power ratings and all of their OVC wins have come against teams ranked 300 or lower. Not only that, 4 of their 5 conference wins (vs teams all ranked 300 or lower) have come by 4 points or less. Jax State is the 2nd most efficient team in the OVC and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 4 of their last 6 games. SEMO is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation (301st in efficiency) and they’ve only reached 70 points once in their 12 conference games. SEMO is 5-7 in conference play despite playing the easiest schedule in league play. Jacksonville State has handled all of the lower ranked teams in the conference and we’re getting a gift with the Gamecocks laying only 3 points here. |
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02-06-21 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - This is a tough match up for the Badgers. Defensively, they struggle to contain athletic, quick back courts and Illinois has just that. They have problems staying with penetrating guards and on top of that UW usually has an advantage inside with Reuvers and Potter but that won’t necessarily be the case here. Illinois has two very good big men in Cockburn and Bezhanishvili who open up the outside for one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (10th best in the country). Four of Illinois five losses have come vs teams that scored at least 80 points in their game. Wisconsin isn’t built to put up huge numbers offensively. In fact the Badgers have scored 80+ points in just 1 of their 12 Big 10 games (in regulation). They often win low scoring games and we’re not sure they can hold Illinois (8th most efficient offense in the country) in check here. So that means Wisconsin will have to keep up and we don’t think they can. Wisconsin has beaten the teams they are supposed to for the most part, however they’ve only played 2 teams ranked in the top 6 in the Big 10 and lost to both (Ohio State by 12 and Michigan by 23). The favorite is 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 meetings and this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin. Lay the points. |
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02-06-21 | Syracuse v. Clemson -2.5 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
#636 ASA PLAY ON 8* Clemson -2.5 over Syracuse, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Clemson has one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the nation. They are 7-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Virginia, the top rated team in the ACC. The Tigers were smoked in their 3 most recent road games losing @ Duke, @ Ga Tech, and @ Florida St. However their last 2 home games they beat Louisville and UNC. They also beat Florida State at home this year so they have W’s vs 3 of the top teams in the ACC in their own arena. Speaking of home/road dichotomy, the Cuse also has a fairly drastic difference in regards to that. The Orange have lost 4 of their 5 road games this season with their only win coming @ BC, who is 3-10 overall and 1-6 in ACC play. Their other 4 road losses have come by an average of 15 PPG. We have a huge difference defensively in this game as Syracuse allows 80 PPG on the road while Clemson gives up just 57 PPG in their 8 games. The Tigers are 7-2-1 their last 10 home games while Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS their last 6 on the road. These 2 have met 5 times in Clemson since 2007 and the Tigers have won 4 of those games. We’ll take the host on Saturday. |
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02-05-21 | Maryland v. Penn State -2 | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#860 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one sets up nicely for PSU coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wisconsin while Maryland won a barn burner at home vs Purdue. The Nittany Lions played the Badgers back to back and we could see the potential for a blowout after they beat UW on Saturday and then had to travel to Madison on Tuesday. PSU was stymied by Wisconsin’s defense holding the Nits to just 56 points which again we could see coming after the Badgers played very poor defensive vs them a few days earlier. Penn State is undervalued right now because of their overall & Big 10 record (6-8 & 3-7) but this team is solid. They’ve had a number of players miss games this season and they are now getting healthy over the last few weeks with Sessoms and Dread back in the line up. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and one of those losses was a 4-point setback @ Ohio State, who just might be the best team in the Big 10 right now. PSU led by 8 in the 2nd half of that game. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play with their only loss coming vs Illinois before Christmas. Maryland is off a thrilling 61-60 win over Purdue at home. It was a game the Terps led for a total of 5:00 minutes and won the game on 2 FT’s with 3 seconds remaining. Tough spot for them with a home game vs Ohio State on deck as well. Both rely heavily on the 3-point shot offensively and while PSU is decent at defending the arc (114th nationally & 5th in the Big 10), Maryland stinks in that regard (249th nationally & 11th in the Big 10). PSU plays much better offensively at home averaging 81 PPG while hitting almost 47% of their shots. They’ve also had some back luck in conference play this year with opponents hitting nearly 79% of their FT’s vs PSU in league play. That won’t happen here as the Terps make just 64% of their freebies in conference play. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and the host has also covered 5 of the last 6. |
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02-04-21 | Cincinnati v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +2.5 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Bearcats have had a long layoff having not played a game since January 10th. They had 6 straight games cancelled due to Covid within the program. Not only have they not played, they’ve practiced very little. In fact, their first 5 on 5 type practice in weeks was on Tuesday of this week. Head coach John Brannen also said his full roster will not be available for this game and he expects a few walk ons to log extended minutes in this game. So Cincy is laying points in this road tilt despite practicing just twice recently (Tues & Wed), without a full roster, and the chances of the players being in game shape is slim to none. On top of that, this simply isn’t the Cincinnati team of old as they were just 3-7 (1-4 in the AAC) when they had their extended break. Temple has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they have the ability to play very well at times. One of their key offensive players finally got into the line up in mid January as Butler transfer Khalif Battle has been able to play the last 4 games (11 PPG). Last week the Owls beat one of the top teams in the AAC here at home topping Tulsa 76-67. Tulsa was a 1.5 point favorite in that game and now Cincinnati is favored by 2.5? Tulsa is better than Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats on the road already this year. After their win vs Tulsa, the Owls laid an egg over the weekend losing at home to Tulane as an 8 point favorite. After that loss we expect Temple to play very well (third straight home game) before going on the road for 4 of their last 5. This is a big game for the Owls. Cincy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (328th) so they need to score inside the arc to be effective. That’s where the Temple defense excels ranking 48th nationally at defending 2-point attempts, The Owls also rarely send teams to the FT line so the Bearcats will struggle to score here. The last 2 seasons these teams have met 3 times with the Bearcats winning all 3 very tight by margins of 1, 4, and 7 points and those games took place when Cincy was a better team than they are right now. We fully expect Temple to get the home win here. Take the points here. |
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02-02-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* North Carolina -3.5 @ Clemson, 7 PM ET - Clemson has literally forgotten how to play defense as they’ve allowed 1.467, 1.327, 1.151 and 1.213 points per possession in four of their last five games. Those are all drastically higher than the D1 average of 1.018PPP. In the Tigers most recent game they gave up 79-points to a Duke team that ranks slightly higher in offensive efficiency in ACC play than this North Carolina team. The Tarheels are scoring 1.043 points per possession, 5th best in the conference. In comparison, Clemson is currently last in the ACC in offensive efficiency averaging less than .94PPP. Not only are the Tarheels better offensively but defensively it’s not close as Clemson is 3rd to last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, North Carolina is 6th. The Tarheels will own a decisive advantage on the boards with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. North Carolina has played well of late with three straight wins and 6 of their last seven. We don’t think the trend of horrendous defense by Clemson is going to end anytime soon and will look to play against them here. |
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01-30-21 | Illinois-Chicago +3.5 v. Northern Kentucky | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
#685 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois Chicago +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Saturday at 5 PM ET - These 2 played last night with NKU coming out on top 72-68. The host made 20 FT’s to UIC’s 9 which turned out to be the difference in the game. The Flames absolutely dominated the boards 40 to 27 including 14 offensive rebounds but they shot just 38% for the game. The Hilltoppers are a poor rebounding team (328th in defensive rebounding) and one of the smallest teams in the country. We full expect Illinois Chicago to dominated the boards again on Saturday. Northern KY is one of the worst 3 points shooting teams in the nation and they were off from deep on Friday making 4 of 14 vs a UIC defense that allows just 26% from beyond the arc (6th best nationally). On Saturday we expect the Hilltoppers to struggle again from deep as they have for much of the season and if they don’t have a huge edge at the FT line, the Flames will have a great shot to win this game outright. After last night’s win, NKU is now 6-5 in Horizon League play and all of their wins prior to last night game against teams rated in the bottom 4 of the conference. We feel the Flames are a bit undervalued as they are now at full strength after playing 4 of their 9 Horizon League games without their top big man Bridges (10 PPG & 5 RPG). He’s back to full strength and we like UIC to win this game in quick revenge mode after losing a tight one last night. Take the points. |
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01-29-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -1.5 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -1.5 over Ohio, 7 PM ET - We are backing the home team Buffalo in this MAC showdown and expect a double-digit win by the home team. The Bulls stand 4-3 SU in conference play this season while Ohio U checks in at 5-4 SU. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency in MAC play with Ohio averaging 1.124 points per possession while Buffalo averages 1.09PPP. Defensively it’s not close as the Bulls have the best defensive efficiency rating in conference play at .982PPP allowed compared to the Bobcats who give up 1.114PPP which ranks second to last in the MAC. Ohio is 0-4 against the top four teams in the conference (Buffalo is 5th) and lost by an average of 11PPG in all four. Buffalo is on a 4-1 ATS run right now and has covered 5 of their last six conference games. The Bulls have also won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Bobcats. When Ohio has faced better competition, it hasn’t gone well for them with a 2-5 ATS their last seven against a team with a winning record. Lastly, Buffalo has a +11PPG differential at home this season and should have their way offensively against a Bobcats defense allowing over 80PPG on the road. |
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01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | Top | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -4.5 over Morehead State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago with Morehead winning 56-55 at home. Jacksonville State had a shot at the buzzer to pull off the road win but missed and came up just short. Jax State hit just 33% of their shot in that game and made only 6 of 23 from deep and still nearly won the game on the road. Now we’re getting great value in this revenge spot as Jacksonville State was favored by 3 @ Morehead State in that loss and now they are laying just 3.5 at home. Not only that, the Gamecocks were missing 2 key players in that game and still nearly won the game. Starting forward Kayne Henry and 6th man Amanze Ngumezi both issues that game and they’ve since come back and played very well. Ngumezi has scored 51 points in his 4 games since returning and Henry has put up 46 points in the same span. Morehead State is 8-2 in conference play but they’ve played on of the easiest slates thus far in the OVC and their last 3 wins have come vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Jax State has just one home loss this year and that was vs Belmont the best team in the OVC (16-1 overall / 10-0 in conference play) and that was a tight game with the Gamecocks trailing by just 2 points with under 3:00 remaining int eh game. It was a 7 point win over Belmont but Jacksonville State hung to the end despite an -18 made FT margin. The Gamecocks shoot 50% at home and have a point margin if +17 per game at home. Morehead State has a -6 PPG margin on the road this year and we like Jax State to get their revenge at home on Thursday night. |
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01-27-21 | Wisconsin -3 v. Maryland | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
#701 ASA PLAY ON 8* Wisconsin -3 over Maryland, Wed at 9 PM ET - We’re getting a very good Wisconsin team in revenge mode AND off a loss. We really like this spot. The Badgers lost at home to Maryland 70-64 back on December 28th. In that game the Terps hit 50% of their shots for 1.11 PPP and made 80% of their FT’s. That was vs a Wisconsin defense that has allowed less than 1.00 PPP in conference play and it was the Badgers worst defensive efforts of the season on a PPP basis. On the season in Big 10 play Maryland is averaging just 0.98 PPP and making only 63% of their FT’s so the numbers in the first meeting were not indicative of this team. They played over their heads. We also get Wisconsin coming off a home loss vs Ohio State on Saturday and Maryland coming off a road upset at Minnesota over the weekend. The Terps have pulled a number of upsets on the road topping Illinois, Minnesota, and Rutgers, however they have not yet won at home in Big 10 play. They have lost all 3 of their Big 10 home games by double digits. The Badgers on the other hand, have lost only 1 conference road game and that was @ Michigan. The Badgers are a very solid 3-point shooting team (34th nationally) and facing a Maryland defense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 at defending the 3. If UW holds a lead late as we expect, they also make 76% of their freebies in league play. The Badgers were favored by 10 at home in the first meeting and now only 3 on the road despite zero home court advantage? Bad line and we’ll take Wisconsin. |
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01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +2.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
#692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +2.5 over Boise State, Wed at 9 PM ET - Wrong team is favored here according to our power ratings. Boise State sits at 9-0 in the MWC however they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. The Broncos have not played a single team ranked in the top 6 in the conference. All 9 of their wins have come vs the bottom 5 teams in the Mountain West. The 5 teams they’ve faced in the MWC rank 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in conference defensive efficiency (MWC has 11 teams in the conference). The 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in MWC offensive efficiency. Boise hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 180 since December 9th! CSU has an 8-2 conference record but they’ve had the much tougher slate. The Rams have already faced the 2 highest rated teams in the conference (San Diego St & Utah St) and split the 2 game series which each of those teams. On top of that, both of those 2 games series was on the road. Their most recent win they knocked off Utah State 84-76 on the road last Thursday after the Aggies entered the game winning 11 in a row. The Rams are happy to finally be at home where they are 6-0 this year but haven’t played here since January 9th. CSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 21st in the country in eFG% and 3-point FG% while also making 77% of their FT’s. They are even better at home making over 50% of their shots and hitting 45% of their shots from deep. The Rams take out Boise tonight. |
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01-27-21 | Marquette v. Providence -1.5 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
#668 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence -1.5 over Marquette, Wed at 7 PM ET - The Friars are just happy to finally be playing a game at home. After a 4 game road trip they are back on their home court for the first time since January 2nd. One of their opponents on that tough 4 game road trip was this Marquette team. The Golden Eagles topped Providence 79-69 in that game but it was an obvious letdown spot for the Friars while Marquette was in a very solid situation at home. Just 2 days prior to their game @ Marquette, the Friars blew a 7-point lead with 1:30 remaining in the game @ Xavier with the Musketeers hitting a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win 74-73. The quick turnaround was rough for this Providence team while Marquette had a full week off entering their game with the Friars. Providence hung around and trailed by just 2 points with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before a rested Golden Eagle team pulled away. Marquette has won their last 2 road games, however they came against St Johns (by 2) and Georgetown (by 4) who are the 9th and 11th rated teams in the Big East (who has 11 teams). The Eagles are coming off a home loss to DePaul who is the 10th rated team. Providence has played the much tougher Big East schedule (#1 SOS in conference play) yet these 2 have identical 4-5 conference records. The Friars, despite their first loss to Marquette in a bad situation, actually matched up well with the Eagles. That’s because Marquette relies fairly heavily on their 3-point shooting and Providence has the #1 three point defense in Big East play allowing opponents to shoot just 30%. On the other side, Marquette has the worst defensive efficiency numbers in the league (11th in Big East play) and they also rank last at defending the arc while the Friars are the 2nd best three point shooting team in conference games. Providence gets their revenge here with a home win. |
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01-25-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Syracuse +6.5 over Virginia, 7PM ET Virginia is coming off a down to the wire win against Georgia Tech on Saturday, a game in which the Yellow Jackets led for most of the game. The Cavs were an 8.5-point home favorite in that game and recently a 9.5-point chalk against Notre Dame and those two teams aren’t as good as this Syracuse team. Virginia is just 1-2 ATS at home in conference action. The Cuse are off a pair of quality wins over Miami and Virginia Tech by 26 and 18-points respectively. In ACC play these two have similar overall efficiency numbers with Virginia first in offensive efficiency while Syracuse is 3rd. The Cavs check in with the 2nd ranked ACC defensive efficiency number while the Cuse are 5th. Points are a premium in this matchup of the 2/3 zone by Syracuse and the Pack-line D used by the Cavaliers which makes the dog that much more attractive. In the last two meetings (not including OT) these two have combined for 82 and 86 Total points. Grab the points with Syracuse. |
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01-23-21 | Furman v. East Tennessee State +3.5 | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* #678 East Tennessee State +3.5 over Furman, 4PM ET - This is another quick turnaround game for both teams as they just met at Furman last Saturday. Furman won that game by 12-points as a 10-point chalk. The glaring difference in that game was the 3-point shooting as the Paladins hit 8 of 26 compared to ETSU making just 4 of 20. We expect those number to trend in the opposite direction now that this game is being played on the Buccaneers court. ETSU has gone 72-13 (.847) inside Freedom Hall since the start of the 2015-16 season, including a 5-1 mark this year and a 16-1 record last year. Since the start of the 2015-16 campaign, ETSU has won the most games in the Southern Conference with 75 victories, Furman is next at 70. In five SoCon games this season, ETSU leads the conference in rebound margin (+6.4), ranks second in field goal percentage defense (.422) and scoring defense (69.2), ranks third in three-point field goal percentage (.383), three-point field goal percentage defense (.317) and scoring margin (+5.6). The Bucs are slightly lower than Furman in conference offensive efficiency ratings but hold a sizeable advantage in defensive efficiency. Those are significant numbers considering ETSU has played the tougher schedule. In SoCon road games Furman is 0-3 ATS with a 4-point win at Chattanooga, 6-point win at The Citadel and a 1-point loss at VMI and none of those teams are as good as ETSU. This is a quick revenge game and East Tennessee State will enjoy a home court advantage here with a handful of fans |
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01-23-21 | Duke v. Louisville -1 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1 over Duke, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We’re not jumping off this train yet. We’ve gone against Duke in each of their last 2 games and cashed on both @ Va Tech and @ Pitt. Now they are playing their 3rd straight road game @ Louisville on Saturday. The Devils continue to be overvalued as they are now 1-8 ATS on the season and their spread losses have come by an average of 12 PPG. In other words, they aren’t even close to covering. Louisville is coming off a home loss on Monday vs a red hot FSU team. The Noles are playing FAR better than Duke right now and the Cards were favored by 4 in that game. Now laying only 2 points vs a Duke team that is really struggling. The Devils aren’t built to win on the road right now. They aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (223rd nationally) and they don’t defend the 3 point line well (295th nationally). They don’t get to the FT line with only 13.7% of their points coming from the line (332nd nationally) so they have to shoot really well to have a chance to win and they simply aren’t a great shooting team. On top of that, Duke has been sending teams to the line a lot in ACC play with almost 20% of opponents points coming from the stripe. The Devils also rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (conference games). The Cards are every bit as good as Va Tech & Pitt, the 2 teams that just beat Duke (by 7 & 6 points) and coming off a home less sets them up for a solid performance. We fade Duke again on Saturday. |
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01-23-21 | Clemson v. Florida State -7 | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
#656 ASA PLAY ON 8* Florida State -7 over Clemson, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions here. FSU has been on fire since they came back from their 15 day covid hiatus. Since their return, they’ve beaten NC State by 32, UNC by 7, and Louisville by 13. They are extremely deep and tough to guard with 9 players averaging double digit minutes and 6 players averaging between 8 and 15 points. They have 5 players shooting 40% or better from beyond the arc. Since their covid return, the Noles have made 96 of their 182 shots (53%) and 44 of their 48 FT’s. They should have a field day vs a Clemson defense that has solid overall defensive numbers, but the Tigers have been trending down. Over their last 2 games vs UVA and Georgia Tech, the Clemson defense has allowed a ridiculous 1.47 and 1.32 PPP. The Tigers were destroyed in both of those games losing to the Cavs by 35 and the Yellow Jackets by 18. The two games prior to that Clemson struggled to beat NC State at home (won in OT), the same team FSU just beat by 30+. The game before that they came from behind in the 2nd half to beat a Miami team, that is 2-6 in ACC, by 1 point. On top of that, just before their covid break, FSU traveled to Clemson and lost by 10 points as a 1 point underdog. That was the Noles worst offensive performance of the season on a PPG and PPP basis. Clemson also held a HUGE edge at the FT line in that game with the Tigers going 24 of 33 from the stripe and FSU going 6 of 9. Clemson has scored just 66, 52, 62, and 65 points over their last 4 games (in regulation). Now with FSU rolling offensively and Clemson struggling on defense, we’re not sure Clemson can keep up in this game. |
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01-23-21 | Eastern Washington -2.5 v. Northern Colorado | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* #633 Eastern Washington -2.5 over Northern Colorado, 2PM ET - In the new Covid climate back-to-back games in conference play are now the norm. That’s the case here as EW and Northern Colorado just met the other night with UNCO coming out on top 78-76. Eastern had the ball and a chance to win with 11 seconds left, but a turnover and foul led to a pair of game-winning free throws by the Bears with one tick of the clock left. Eastern sank 49 percent of its shots from the field and 88% from the free throw line, but the Eagles made just three 3-pointers compared to 13 for the Bears, who sank 43.3 percent of their treys compared to 18.8 percent for EWU. The Eagles, the preseason and defending regular season champions, are 3-6 overall and 2-2 in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado was picked to finish fifth by the coaches in the Big Sky Conference preseason polls and are off to a 5-4 start. The Eagles have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the Big Sky at 1.117PPP compared to Northern Colorado who is 9th at less than 1-point per possession. UNCO is better when it comes to conference defensive efficiency ratings than EWU, but six of the Bears games have come against three teams that are in the bottom five in OEFF in conference action. Off that disappointing loss the Eagles bounce back here with a big win. |
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01-22-21 | St. Peter's +4.5 v. Siena | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* St Peters +4.5 over Siena, 7 PM ET - Siena is what we call a ‘false favorite’ as their undefeated record of 6-0 SU has them over-valued here. Siena has played all conference opponents to date but four of those games were against Rider and Fairfield who are 6-14 in Metro action and two of the worst teams in the league. St Peters has faced Niagara and Canisius who are both better than Rider and Fairfield and both teams have faced Monmouth. Siena beat Monmouth twice while St Peters split with them, winning by 2 and losing by 2. The lines on the games against Monmouth are the tell in this situation as St Peters was favored by 2-points in both games at Monmouth while Siena was -2.5-point favorites at home. In fact, St Peters has been a favorite in every conference game this season. Last season these teams met twice and both games went down to the wire with a 5-point and 3-point margin. Siena also has some injury concerns while the Peacocks are healthy. Easy call here with the points. |
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01-21-21 | Wichita State +3 v. Memphis | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +3 over Memphis, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Memphis continues to be overrated by the oddsmakers. They have lost 7 straight games vs the number by a combined 57 points or -8 PPG vs the spread. Since December 1st the Tigers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100. They are 1-5 SU overall vs top 100 teams with their lone win in their season opener vs St Marys. They are 2-2 in the AAC with their wins coming vs Tulane by 6 and South Florida by 1. Those 2 teams are ranked last and 8th in the 11 team conference. Their 2 losses came vs Tulsa, a team Wichita just beat by 19 in their most recent game (they’ve already beaten Tulsa twice). The Shockers have been impressive this year with 4 wins already vs top 100 opponents and their only 3 losses have come at the hands of Missouri (by 10), Oklahoma State (by 3) and Houston (by 7) – all ranked inside the top 40 with Houston currently ranked 8th. Their 7 point loss @ Houston was the Cougars closest win this season and a game the Shockers led by 7 in the 2nd half. Wichita has played the much tougher schedule and much more consistent schedule as they’ve played 4 games in January but have had a week off to get ready for this game. Memphis, on the other hand, just played their first game since December 29th last Sunday, a 58-57 loss @ Tulsa. The Tigers are a poor shooting team that has only top 0.90 PPP once in their last 5 games. The last three games they’ve scored 49, 58, and 57 points. We don’t think they should be favored in this game so we’ll grab the generous points with Wichita State |
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01-19-21 | Duke v. Pittsburgh +4.5 | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
#640 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh +4.5 over Duke, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We do not get the love for Duke. They simply aren’t very good this season. But again, this line opened with Duke favored by -2 and has jumped to -4 as people continue to play them. Very similar to last week when we took Va Tech over Duke after the Hokies opened as a 1-point favorite but went off as a 2-point dog. VT controlled the entire game on their way to a 7 point win as the dog. Duke’s spread record is an abysmal 1-7 ATS this season as the continue to be overvalued because of their name. Not only have they consistently lost to the number, it hasn’t been close. Their 7 spread losses have come by an average of 12.2 PPG. Even if we throw in their 1 spread win @ Notre Dame, the Devils average spread loss this year is by 10 points. They sit at 3-1 in the ACC, however their 3 wins have come vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (BC, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame). Pitt is flying under the radar right now in our opinion. This is a very solid team. They have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Louisville and the Panthers were without 2 of their best players, both starters, in that game. Both of those players, Toney (16 PPG) and Champagnie (19 PPG), have both returned to the line up and played very well. Pitt’s defense is the best in the ACC in league play allowing just 0.92 PPP. Duke’s defense in ACC play ranks allowing 1.07 PPP despite not playing a team ranked in the top 5 in the league in offensive efficiency and playing 3 teams ranked 11th or lower in that category. Duke shoots a lot of 3’s (almost 39% of their shots come from deep) but they are not particularly good at it. Pitt’s defense ranks 9th nationally at defending the arc allowing only 25.9%. The Devils also don’t get to the FT line with just 13% of their points coming from the stripe (330th nationally). Not a recipe for winning on the road. We like Pitt in this game both at +4 and throwing a little on the money line as well. |
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01-19-21 | Colorado State +7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Colorado State +7.5 @ Utah State, 9 PM ET - Utah State is coming off a HUGE 2-game series with San Diego State and played both games at a high level, so a letdown is imminent. San Diego State was one of the favorites to win the conference this season which is why they were small favorites in both game on this court over the weekend with the Aggies. Those two wins by Utah State has caused an over-reaction by the oddsmakers which has driven this line up to where it is now, yet Colorado State may be better than San Diego State. CSU is 3rd in the conference in OEFF at 1.115 (San Diego State 8th) and 3rd in DEFF (SDSU 5th). The Rams are a great shooting team with an EFG% of 56 (23rd in nation), 39.2% 3-point shooting (21st) a 2-pt percentage of 53.5%. Utah State will have a much tougher time defending the Rams shooters in this game than they did SDSU. Utah State has some incredible defensive numbers this season but prior to the two games against San Diego State they hadn’t played a team ranked higher than 212 per KenPom in 8 straight games. We like the Rams and the points here in a close game. |
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01-18-21 | Florida State v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1.5 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Cards are coming off a 78-72 loss @ Miami in a game they were favored by -4.5 points. Their starting guards, Jones and Johnson, both shoot around 40% from 3-point land combined for 2 of 9 from deep on Saturday. The Cards as a team made only 3 of 20 from deep which was the difference in the game. The should fare much better at home on Monday vs an FSU defense that is poor at defending the arc (263rd nationally). The Noles topped North Carolina on Saturday, however the Heels, who entered Saturday ranked 11th in the ACC in 3-point shooting, made 10 shots from deep vs FSU. The Noles had a long 2+ week break recently due to covid issues and they’ve had 2 games since that break both at home last Wednesday and on Saturday. They won both games and their offense was ridiculously good. Over the 2 games they made 65 of their 108 shot attempts (60%), 20 of their 34 three point attempts (59%), and 37 of their 38 FT attempts (97%). While they do have an efficient offense, those numbers are not sustainable especially now that they take the road for only the 2nd time this season. Their first road game was @ Clemson and FSU lost that game by 10 shooting 42% overall and just 28% from deep. They are facing a very solid Louisville defense (allowing 0.93 PPP) coming off one of their worst efforts of the year on Saturday as Miami hit them for 1.15 PPP. Expect the Cards to play very well defensively on Monday. FSU is also a bit banged up with guards Barnes (11 PPG) possibly out and and Walker (16 PPG) a game time decision. Louisville is 7-0 at home this year and they are also 19-4 their last 23 home meetings with FSU. The Noles are a bit overvalued right now and Louisville is at home off a loss. Nice spot to lay the small number. |
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01-16-21 | Baylor -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#691 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -4.5 over Texas Tech, 4:00 PM ET - Baylor has been one of two dominant teams this year along with Gonzaga. The Bears are 11-0 with all 11 wins coming by double digits. That includes 4 wins vs top 100 teams and an 13 point win vs an outstanding Illinois team who ranks 8th nationally in the power rankings. Their average margin of victory on the season is +28 points. They rank in the top 5 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears also rank in the top 10 nationally in eFG%, 3 point %, and offensive rebounding. This is as complete a team as you’ll find in the nation. Texas Tech is solid. They are not on the same level as Baylor. The Red Raiders have already lost 2 home games vs Oklahoma State & Kansas. They have won just 2 games this season vs top 50 teams both by margins of 2 points. Tech is coming off a huge won @ Texas winning 79-77 on a last second shot by Mac McClung. The Raiders were more than fortunate as they led that game for a total of 45 seconds. Baylor won both games in this Big 12 series last year and the Bears have taken a big step forward while our ratings have Tech at about the same level as a year ago. We actually feel Tech is a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 5 straight home games to the number. Baylor is the much better team this season and we’ll lay the small number. |
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01-16-21 | Michigan v. Minnesota +6 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
#646 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota +6 over Michigan, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We think the Gophers have a great shot to pull off the upset here. Michigan steps in with an undefeated 10-0 record but they’ve played the easiest conference schedule to date. They’ve already faced Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Maryland, the 4 lowest power rated teams in the conference. The Wolverines have also been on the road for only 2 of their 10 games this season and those games were back in December vs Northwestern and Maryland, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the Big 10. Michigan is also coming off a huge win over Wisconsin (their only top tier conference opponent they’ve faced) and they played the perfect game. They hit 52% of their shots, 56% of their 3’s. and 100% of their FT’s. Wisconsin shot and play terribly in the game and that win has now pushed Michigan into the overvalued category in our opinion. We fully expect a come back to earth, letdown game for the Wolverines. Minnesota’s home / road dichotomy is as drastic as any in the nation. They stink on the road. They are 0-4 on the road getting beat by double digits in each. That includes an 82-57 loss @ Michigan just 10 days ago. Can you say quick revenge? At home the Gophers are 10-0 with wins over top tier Big 10 teams Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, and a win over the top team in the A10 conference St Louis. Minnesota is on the opposite end of the spectrum strength of schedule wise having faced the toughest slate in the Big 10 to date including games vs Iowa (twice), Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State. This will be their 7th straight game vs a ranked opponent. They are also off 2 straight losses (both on the road) and they’ve had since last Sunday to get ready for this game. In the first meeting Minnesota was a 7.5 point dog @ Michigan and now they are getting nearly the same. Last year the Gophs were favored by 2 at home in this match up and won by 2. Value is absolutely on Minnesota and we’ll take it. |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah +1.5 over Stanford, 5 PM ET *Early tip* With public money immediately flowing in on Stanford this line moved the opposite direction which grabbed our attention. Utah has some tremendous offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers despite playing a brutally tough schedule. The Utes have lost four straight games, but it came against teams rated 28th or better by Kenpom. Utah lost three of those games close to UCLA by 2, Oregon by 6 and Colorado by 7-points and they got outscored from the charity strip by 16 in that one. Stanford has won 3 in a row, but they’ve been playing the bottom of the Pac 12 conference unlike Utah. The Cardinal’s two toughest games have been against Arizona who they beat by 3 and Oregon who they lost by 17. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and Utah is in a desperate situation here. Bet against the public and play on Utah here. |
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01-13-21 | NC State +4.5 v. Florida State | Top | 73-105 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
#661 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +4.5 over Florida State, Wed at 6:30 PM ET - We think this NC State team is undervalued. They are 6-3 on the season but definitely better than their record. This team has only been at 100% for a few games this season as starters Hayes and Funderburk (now coming off bench) have missed a few key games. The Wolfpack are coming off 2 straight losses @ Clemson in OT and at home vs an underrated Miami team in tight game over the weekend. The Canes shot the lights out over the weekend hitting nearly 50% of their shots with NC State hitting only 38% yet the game went to the wire. Because of Covid issues, Florida State hasn’t played in over 2 weeks. Their last game was a 10 point loss @ Clemson on December 29th. Tough to not play a game for that long and come back at an optimum level. Despite their 6-3 record, the Wolfpack are +12 PPG on the season while the 5-2 Seminoles are +8 PPG with a very similar strength of schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton was blunt about the interruption, "In practice we very seldom, ever, ever have a starting lineup together. We never practice who starts together. We practice different lineups and different groups of guys every day. ... Because we have different mixtures. Everybody's got to blend in." FSU won both games last year in tight fashion with margins of 5 & 6 points giving a little extra motivation to the Wolfpack. We think NC State has a great shot to win this one and we’re getting a decent cushion with the pointspread here. |
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01-12-21 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +2 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2 over Duke, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Duke has been shaky at best all season long with a 6-2 record and their only top 100 win coming vs Notre Dame. The Devils have played only one road game all season and that was over 3 weeks ago. They have played only 2 games since December 16th due to some covid issues. In their 2 games since December 16th they had to come from 16 points down at home to beat a 2-9 Boston College team by 1 points. Duke also beat Wake Forest at home by 11 but the game was much closer than that as the game was tied midway through the 2nd half and they didn’t take their first 10+ point lead until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. This is a very young team that isn’t built to win games on the road. They rarely get to the FT line (13% of their points from the line – 327th nationally) and they’re poor at defending the arc. Va Tech is 9-2 on the season and their only loss since December 8th was a 2 point loss @ Louisville. They are very solid 3-point shooting team hitting 36% which matches up very nicely vs this Duke defense. The Hokies have covered 5 of their last 6 and remain very underrated in our opinion. This Duke team is nowhere near as good as their teams yet they are still getting the respect because of their name. They are just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games and we’re getting the better team at home around a pick-em here. Take Virginia Tech. |
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01-11-21 | Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Loyola Chicago -6.5 over Indiana State, 7PM ET - Loyola Chicago was thrown a “Covid-curveball” when they were scheduled to play Missouri Valley leader Drake this past weekend but instead faced Indiana State. Because of a Covid outbreak on Drakes roster the Ramblers were instead forced to change last minute and travel to play Indiana State. In an obvious let down situation Loyola lost to the Sycamores by 5-points with the big difference in the game being a +12 margin of made free throws for Indiana State. Loyola was projected to be one of the best teams in the MVC this season while Indiana State was expected to finish near the bottom. In fact, the Ramblers rate higher in our power ratings than undefeated Drake, who beat Indiana State on their home court by 18 and 7-points. Prior to the upset in the game Sunday to Indiana State, the Ramblers two previous losses were to quality foes Richmond and Wisconsin. Loyola is the most efficient offense in the Missouri Valley and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Indiana State is the 4th worst in OEFF, 6th worst in DEFF. The Ramblers get payback here after the upset Sunday. |
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01-11-21 | Connecticut v. DePaul +5.5 | 60-53 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* DePaul +5.5 over UConn, 6PM ET - We like the spot here and the number as UConn recently beat DePaul as an 8-point home favorite. UConn shot 49% from the field and 41% from beyond the arc while DePaul had a very poor shooting night at 38% overall and 24% from three. The Huskies also got a huge night from guard Bouknight (potential Big East player of the year) who scored 20-points, grabbed 4 rebounds and handed out 3 assists. Bouknight is doubtful here or at the minimum will not be 100% after suffering a hyper-extended elbow recently. We are betting UConn doesn’t shoot nearly as well here, playing their 3rd straight road game, and having season averages of 43.7FG% overall and 36.5% 3-point percentage which are well below what they shot in the first meeting with the Demons. On the other hand we expect DePaul to shoot closer to their regular season averages of 46.9% and 37.8% (3pt). Take the revenge minded home dog here. |
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01-09-21 | Ohio State v. Rutgers -3 | 79-68 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
#616 ASA CBB PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -3 over Ohio State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this rematch for a few weeks now. These two Big 10 programs met just before Xmas @ Ohio State and the Buckeyes won 80-68. We watched that game closely and the Scarlet Knights dominated for about 80% of the game. They took their first lead with just over 15 minutes remaining in the game and did not relinquish that lead until just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. They led by 16 with less with 15 minutes remaining and still up by 10 with just over 10 minutes remaining. One of their top players, Jacob Young, was injured midway through the 2nd half and did not return and he is back at 100%. They were outscored by 18 points over the last 8 minutes to make it look like they got smoked and that was not the case. Rutgers is now 3-3 in conference play and this is a huge game for them. They have played the toughest slate of home games thus far in league play and they are 2-1 with wins over Illinois & Purdue and a 2 point loss vs Iowa. Illinois is currently rated as the best team the conference per KenPom and Iowa is ranked 3rd. In their loss to Iowa the Knights led for much of the game despite going 4 for 12 from the FT line making 14 fewer freebies than the Hawkeyes yet only lost by 2. They could easily be undefeated at home with wins over 2 of the top 3 teams in the Big 10. That Iowa loss was last Saturday and took the wind out of their sails as they followed that up with their worst performance of the year @ MSU. Now off 2 losses, we expect Rutgers to play great at home in this quick revenge spot. OSU has been tough at home but they are 0-3 on the road in Big 10 play with losses @ Northwestern, @ Minnesota, and @ Purdue. The Buckeyes have been a poor 3-point shooting team (last in Big 10 play) and in road games they are only hitting 40% of their shots (just 29% from 3). The Buckeyes are without starting guard CJ Walker for this game as he was injured last weekend vs Minnesota. Speaking of the Gophers, they rolled over OSU by 17 points at home last weekend and we expect Rutgers to control this game from start to finish. The host has covered 5 straight in this series and we lay the small number. |
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01-08-21 | Youngstown State v. Wright State -11.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Wright State -11.5 over Youngstown State, 7 PM ET - We feel Wright State is the best team in the Horizon conference this season, yet they are looking up at Illinois Chicago and Cleveland State in the standings. Cleveland State is 6-0 in league play but have played three of the worst teams in the league in IUPUI, IPFW and this same Youngstown State team that Wright State plays today. Cleveland State beat this Youngstown State team by 18 and 7-points earlier this season. Wright State had ripped off 7 wins in a row before an upset loss to Oakland their last time out. After beating Oakland, the night before by 29, the Raiders lost by 10 as an 11-point chalk. We’ve said it a million times and will say it again, bet good teams off bad losses! Wright State has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 64th and an AEO of 116th. Youngstown State is 2-4 in league play and coming off a pair of home games against UW Green Bay who might be the worst team in the Horizon. YSU beat UWGB in the first meeting by 7, then lost the next day by 10 in OT. That’s the same UWGB team Wright State beat by 14 and 13. Wright State has the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the Horizon and will exploit a Penguins team that is last in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.183 points per possession. The key here is whether or not Wright State will be motivated against this lesser opponent and we know they will be off a loss in their last game AND a loss to YSU last year in the final meeting of the season. |
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01-07-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Murray State -2.5 over Eastern Illinois, 8:30 PM ET - Murray State was picked as one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley Conference this year but have gotten off to a 1-3 start. Two of those losses came against Austin Peay and Belmont who are currently two of the top five teams in the OVC. The most recent loss for the Racers came to Morehead State at home which broke a 25-game winning streak on their home court. Eastern Illinois is coming off a win at home which extended their home record to 3-0 this season. Closer inspection though shows those three wins came against weak competition that are not on the level as Murray State. The Panthers most recent win came by 6-points over Tennessee Tech who is one of the worst teams in the OVC. EIU struggles to defend with an efficiency rating of 220th allowing 1.011 points per possession. Their EFG% defense is also horrendous ranking 266th. The Panthers offense isn’t much better ranking 152nd in OEFF at less than 1-point per possession. The Racers are similar to the Panthers in terms of offensive efficiency but much better on the defensive end of the floor allowing .975PPP (135th). The Racers have won 41 out of their 50 regular season meetings and 19 of 27 games at Lantz Arena. Up until their loss there at the end of last season, the Racers had won five in a row and 10 of the last 12 on this court. The Racers bounce back here. |
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01-04-21 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -8 over Colorado State, 9 PM ET - San Diego State was just favored by 9-points at home against Colorado State and lost after leading by 26-points in the game. It was the largest comeback win in D1 this season and also in the last ten seasons. Now we are getting a better number with a highly motivated Aztecs team with payback on their minds. The Rams lost by 20-points to Saint Mary’s earlier this season and we have San Diego State rated significantly higher. Colorado State has played a significantly weaker schedule than SDSU and yet the Aztecs rate exponentially better in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last season on this same court San Diego State was favored by 13-points against CSU, then this year 9-points and now we have a bargain price in this rematch. The Aztecs are 10-2 SU off a loss their last twelve and have won by an average of 15PPG. San Diego has enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage with a 32-6 SU record since 2018 with a +15.1PPG positive differential. Payback here in this quick turnaround. |
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01-03-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +1 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #840 Minnesota +1 over Ohio State, 5:30 PM ET - Good spot to play on the Gophers here as they are off a loss at Wisconsin and back at home where they are 34-8 SU since 2018. Minnesota has also won those games since 2018 by an average of 10.7PPG. The Gophers are also 19-11 SU when coming off a loss their last 30. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule than Ohio State who we feel is overrated and played a weaker schedule. The Gophers two losses this season came at two top ranked venues in Illinois and Wisconsin. Between those two losses the Gophers beat three quality foes in Saint Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota is 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State has a pair of losses on their resume too, at Purdue and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes best win this season was at home against Rutgers. OSU has better efficiency rating but that is a byproduct of a weaker schedule. Minnesota has beaten this team two straight times and did so rather handily. Great spot to bet them here. |
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01-01-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arkansas Little Rock -4 over Texas Arlington, 5 PM ET - Sun Belt action tips off for both teams with UALR looking to repeat as Champions after a 15-5 conference record a year ago. The Trojans return their 7 top scorers from a year ago but have largely underachieved this season with 3 straight spread losses. But that recent trend has affected the number and we get the opportunity to buy low with UALR. In their last game the Trojans lost to Missouri State as they dressed just 8 players and had to finish the game with 4 on the floor. The players that missed that game on Dec 21 because of Covid protocols are expected back here. The Trojans have beaten UTA four straight times on this floor. Arlington returns some sophomores and juniors to this team and have some juco transplants, but they were still 7th in the Sun Belt a year ago. UTA is on a 3-game winning streak but they came against D2 schools. Arkansas Little Rock will be properly motivated here to start conference play and will hold a decisive advantage on the boards with a big front line going against a smaller lineup for UTA. |
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12-28-20 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 56-81 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota, 8 PM ET - Why is Michigan State favored on the road after they just lost to Wisconsin and the Gophers are off an upset win of Iowa? Not only is Minnesota coming off that huge win over the #4 Hawkeyes, but they have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers next. Granted, MSU is still a big-name opponent but they have lost two straight and we guarantee the Gophers have noticed. Michigan State is 64-23 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-11 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency ratings but MSU has a slight advantage offensively and they’ve faced a tougher schedule. Minnesota is 3-2 SU their last five as a home dog but they can’t capture the energy from their home crowd in the current Covid setting. The favorite has covered 7-straight in this series and the Spartans in a desperate situation make it 8 in a row. |
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12-27-20 | Canisius v. Monmouth -5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks! |
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12-26-20 | Virginia v. Gonzaga -8 | 75-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Gonzaga -8 over Virginia, 4PM ET The Zags are the best team in college basketball, and they’ve proven it against some elite competition this season with wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and even a solid Auburn team. Virginia can’t say the same thing as their best win was in OT over an average MAC team Kent State. We know Tony Bennett coached teams are going to play fantastic defense, but we also know they’ll struggle to score. The Cavaliers best offensive option is Sam Hauser but they lack scoring beyond him. Last season the Cavs had the #1 ranked defensive efficiency rating but were 234th in OEFF. Gonzaga though does it on both ends of the court with an OEFF rating of 1.189PPP this season (2nd) and a DEFF rating of .895PPP (14th). Last season the Zags were the #1 ranked offensive team in the nation and 43rd defensively. Virginia just can’t keep pace offensively here and it ends up being a double-digit win by Gonzaga. |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State! |
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12-23-20 | Illinois -4 v. Penn State | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here. |
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12-22-20 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win. |
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12-14-20 | Nevada -3.5 v. San Diego | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss. |
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03-11-20 | North Carolina -3 v. Syracuse | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech. We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday. This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season. They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did. UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy. Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury. Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time. Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists. They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season. UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange. North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT. They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome. We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally. Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one. The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech). They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer. UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road. Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here. North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win. |
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03-11-20 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State -5 | 81-62 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Georgia State -5 over Georgia Southern, Wed at 7 PM ET These two just met here on Georgia State’s home court on February 28th. We released Georgia Southern +5.5 on that day and picked up the win as the Eagles pulled the upset 79-70. We flip the script here in a completely different situation and we’ll grab Georgia State, who is 12-2 at home this year, looking to avenge their rivalry loss. In their meeting on February 28th we had a number of reasons for siding with Georgia Southern including they fact they were playing very well at the time and they also blew a home lead earlier in the year losing to Georgia State. In their 79-70 win on the road, the Eagles picked up some serious help from the officials which we were happy about at the time. They shot a whopping 38 FT’s to just 16 for Georgia State (+12 made FT’s) which in a 9 point game was obviously a major factor. The Panthers also played terrible on offense making only 35% of their shots (they average 46% at home) and they put up only 0.85 points per possession which was by far their worst home performance of the year. In fact, they had not been held to less than 1.00 point per possession in any of their other 13 home games. Southern shot 48% (they average 44% for the season) and that along with 38 FT attempts made it extremely tough for the Panthers at home. Georgia State responded nicely closing out the regular season beating Texas State, the Sun Belt Champion, by 19 points. Ga Southern has struggled a bit since that win losing at home to Arkansas State as an 8 point favorite and then barely getting by Louisiana, who finished 8-12 in the conference, by just 1 point and that was a home game for Southern. That game was also on Monday, just 2 days ago, while Georgia State has had much more time to rest. In their home game vs Louisiana, the Eagles had to come from 16 points down with 11:00 minutes left in the game to get the 1 point win. They didn’t take the first lead of the 2nd half until 1:00 minute remaining in the game and held on. We like Georgia State to bounce back and play very well at home on Wednesday. They were hoping for this rematch and they get it. Lay the points. |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010. This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year. They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season. We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason. It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney. New life for this team. They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend. UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining. This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep. Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January. Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney. Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th. Both are back and healthy. Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries. This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season. Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters. Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to. We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes. This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday). These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77. The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road. UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses. Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road). We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0. Lay the points with the Tar Heels. |
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03-09-20 | Green Bay +5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court. This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay. We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games. That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63. Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney. We think that absolutely favors Green Bay. They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team. The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th. They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight. So plenty of rest between games while still playing. NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd. Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days. Not ideal in our opinion. These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9. The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up. They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th). The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one. UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season. The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense. They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting. In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7. In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference. When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits. The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now. Take the points. |
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03-08-20 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -3 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one. In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament. In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here. The physical toll is just too much to overcome. They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much. Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games. Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”. Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes. We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness. Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired. There is no way around that. They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games. After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game. Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense. The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s). Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season. The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo. They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes. Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State. These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home. The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot. Lay it with Bradley. |
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03-07-20 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6 | Top | 44-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home. These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point. Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss. For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago. Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game). We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings. The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58. In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way! The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year. We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%. They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once. MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season. Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points. Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3. Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play. MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do. This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits. |
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03-06-20 | VCU v. Davidson -4 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid. Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington. VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter. There is a good chance both sit again tonight. Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season. They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples. In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference). Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league). The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate. The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally. We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team. Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch. Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win. This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here. VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to. In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games. Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog. With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one. |
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03-05-20 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out. However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend. Winning both would probably get them in. Just a huge home stand for Memphis. Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here. The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on. Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so. In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry. That simply almost never happens. Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not. Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight. Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble. The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday. As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %. They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier. To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time. Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc. Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road. The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around. |
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03-04-20 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 63-69 | Push | 0 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games. In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone. Win your conference tourney and you’re in. That’s not the case this week. In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State). KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58. It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired. Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game. We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort. With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play. They have absolutely nothing to play for here. They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play. They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward. The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12). This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation. They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game. Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12). OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here. |
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03-03-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night. The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here. Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington. Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home. We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did. This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game. They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding. They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play. One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed. They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed. Tonight they have nothing to play for. The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts. This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons. Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here. Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons. They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013. Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion. Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense. They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%. The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games. Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale. This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers. We like Georgia State here. |
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03-01-20 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville -12 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech. The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half. The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles. The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech. Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense. The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66. A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today. The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia. It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year. Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53. VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3. That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss. They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits. Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs. We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation. They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago. The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9. They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots. It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG. That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games. The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke. In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA. Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG. Lay it with Louisville. |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +4 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride. Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season. That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining. They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC. Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %. They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast. The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion. They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road. Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play. They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play. Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6. The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far. The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games. Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well. If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. |
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02-29-20 | Illinois State v. Evansville -2 | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Evansville -2 over Illinois State, Saturday at 2 PM ET This one is all about motivation. These are the two worst teams in the MVC and they are locked into their spots with Evansville set to finish last and ISU set to finish one spot above the Aces no matter what happens here. Evansville is currently 0-17 in conference play (9-21 overall) yet they are favored here? That should tell you something. Illinois State is 4-13 in conference play (9-20 overall) and they are coming off their rivalry game vs Bradley on Wednesday. The Redbirds gave everything they had at home vs their arch rival but lost in OT. That was their Super Bowl so to speak. Now going on the road in a meaningless game we find it tough to see ISU playing well here. Speaking of playing well, the Redbirds have not done so on the road this year where they have a record of 0-11 SU on the season. Not only have they not won a road game, they haven’t been close with 11 of their 12 losses coming by at least 10 points. Evansville has plenty of motivation not to become the first team since 1998 to go winless in the MVC. The Aces have also been talking this week about winning a game for their only senior and leader KJ Riley. They’ve also shown some promise at home down the stretch losing their last 3 home games by 7 points to Loyola (2nd place team in MVC), 2 points to Indiana State (4th place team in MVC) and by 4 points in OT to Southern Illinois (5th place team in MVC). While they obviously haven’t gotten in done in conference play, the Aces do have some decent non-conference wins @ Kentucky (yes they beat the Cats on the road) and vs Murray State (first place team in OVC). We think Evansville shows up and plays as hard as they have all season. We also think Illinois State comes in flat with nothing to play for. Both of these teams have 9 total wins this season, we like Evansville to move to 10 wins. |
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02-29-20 | Valparaiso v. Indiana State -5 | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana State -5 over Valparaiso, Saturday at 2 PM ET Valpo is off a big senior night win over Missouri State but we feel this is a very tough spot for the Crusaders. First they are just 2-6 SU on the road in Missouri Valley play with their only 2 wins coming by 3 @ Evansville (last place team) and by 2 @ Illinois State (2nd to last place team). Secondly they are banged up as the regular season comes to an end. Their best player and leading scorer and rebounder, Javon Freeman-Liberty (20 PPG & 6 RPG) will almost assuredly be out here as he was just diagnosed with mono and missed Valpo’s home finale on Tuesday. Also starter Nick Robinson missed the last 2 games and will most likely be out here. On top of that, starting guard John Kiser is battling an ankle injury missing games on Feb 15th & 19th and is not back to 100%. Valpo was able to gut it out and get back to back home wins but it’s going to be awfully tough for them in this road game. ISU is on a nice roll winning 7 of their last 10 games and now sit in 4th place in the MVC with a 10-7 record, tied with Southern Illinois and one game ahead of Valpo. This is also a double revenge spot for the Sycamores who lost earlier this year @ Valpo and in last year’s MVC tourney ending ISU’s season. In their game @ Valparaiso back on January 18th, the Crusaders won by 9 but it was much closer than that. ISU actually led at half and trailed by just 3 with 20 seconds remaining. Valpo shot 51% and they were +10 made FT’s in the game yet it went to the wire. On top of that, Valpo’s Freeman-Liberty, who we mentioned earlier and is out here, scored 25 points and had 8 rebounds in that game. Indiana State is 11-1 at home this year and on Senior Night (3 seniors in their top 6) we like them to play very well and cover this fairly short number. |
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02-29-20 | Loyola-Chicago v. Bradley -3 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale. With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special. On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday. Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference. Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here. If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points. They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%. They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams. That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%. Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good. While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games). The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier. When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites. The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley. It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe. We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win. |
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02-28-20 | Georgia Southern +5 v. Georgia State | Top | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game. From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss. We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game. State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11. Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play. Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney. The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%. He missed the last 2 games due to injury. Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team. Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession. This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less. This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places. We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins. |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them. You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that. However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost. Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State. The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place. If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit. NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year. In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77. In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73. Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for. On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury. He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game. His status is up in the air for Thursday. South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league. Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot. If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play. Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover. |
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02-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -6 | Top | 81-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country. They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game. That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month. Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG). The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him. Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points. Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts. During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have. Impressive run to say the least. During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep. Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable. The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10. Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points. The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late. UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points. We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much. Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition. 40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league. The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned. Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games. Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency). That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here. We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. |
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02-26-20 | Utah v. Stanford +7.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up. They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8. Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before. The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points. As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch. They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season. The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land. That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home. This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT. Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win. The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games. With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. |
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02-25-20 | Alabama v. Mississippi State -4 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Mississippi State -4 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET We faded Bama on Saturday @ Ole Miss and the Tide played possibly their best game of the season. They routed Mississippi by 25 points, shot 55% for the game (9% above their average), 43% from beyond the arc (7% above their average) and scored a ridiculous 103 points (20 points above their average). It was just one of those games for Bama where everything went right. We love looking to go against those teams in their following game as they tend to come back to earth, especially if that game is on the road. We’re also getting a solid Mississippi State team (17-10 overall / 8-6 in the SEC) coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are a definite bubble team and they travel for 2 more road games @ Mizzou and @ South Carolina after this game making this a very important home game. MSU is 6-1 at home in SEC play with their only loss coming vs Auburn in the conference opener back in early January. Their average margin of victory at home is +12 and they shoot nearly 50% from the field here. The Bulldogs are also the #1 FT shooting team in the SEC (conference play) hitting 79% so if they need to hold a lead late, chances are they will. They should also dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference (#2 offensive rebounding & #2 defensive rebounding) and they face a Crimson Tide team that is one of the worst on the boards. Bama won the first meeting at home behind 49% shooting (38% for MSU) and +11 margin at the FT line. That changes tonight as we fully expect Mississippi State to play some extra fire with Alabama potentially coming in a bit full of themselves off their big road win Saturday. Lay the number. |
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02-25-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes. Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow. After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road. This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU. They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January. Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game. Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State. The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams. We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home. We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday. The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor. Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State. The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner. These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home. That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there. In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc. Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play. We like OU to get this much needed win tonight. |
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02-25-20 | Ole Miss +8.5 v. Auburn | 58-67 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Ole Miss +8.5 over Auburn, Tuesday at 7 PM ET We were on Ole Miss on Saturday at home vs Bama and they laid a complete egg losing 103-78 as a 2.5 point favorite. The Rebels had been playing very well leading into that contest and we think they bounce back and play well here after that embarrassing performance at home. They’ll have some definite motivation here as they blew a 17 point halftime lead at home vs Auburn just a few weeks ago and lost in double OT 83-82. Ole Miss matches up very well with the Tigers having beaten them twice last year and taking them to double OT this season. The Rebels have also had great success @ Auburn winning 5 of the last 6 meetings. They have one of the top players in the conference in guard Tyree (leads the SEC in scoring at 21 PPG) and his backcourt mate Shuler is a veteran as well. We really like the Rebels veteran guards on the road vs an overvalued Auburn team. Four of the Tigers last six wins have come in OT and they made a monumental comeback here on Saturday erasing a 17 point second half deficit vs Tennessee to pick up the 7 point win. One of their top players, Isaac Okoro, was out with an injury and is questionable at best for this one. Even if he does play we expect Auburn to limit him as he has missed 3 straight games not having played since February 12th. Another key here is Auburn has Kentucky on deck so they want to make sure he’s ready for that game (Tigers lookahead spot here). Auburn is a poor shooting team (13th in the SEC in eFG% and they are not a great FT shooting team at 68% if they are trying to close the game out late. We like Ole Miss to give Auburn all they can handle here. The Tigers have rarely won big in conference play this season – in their last 12 games only 1 win by more than 9 points. Another Auburn game goes to the wire as we take Mississippi to cover. |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65. The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance. That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally. Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less. We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up. Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting. We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight. FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less. The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play. That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference). FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards. That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses). The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak. They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17). They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke. This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT). The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. |
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02-23-20 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them. While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such. Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree. Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5. The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State. Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game. A lucky might be an understatement. MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5. Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1). The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them. OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot. When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12. OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3. They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe. Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better. At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s. Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today. The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home. Ohio State is the play. |
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02-22-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5 | Top | 103-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels. However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home. They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games. They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou. A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining. Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home. In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG. All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play. Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road. Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%. If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here. Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games. We like Ole Miss to win and cover here. |
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02-22-20 | SMU v. Tulsa -1.5 | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Tulsa -1.5 over SMU, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET Tulsa has been a very solid home team (5-1 in AAC play) and we’re getting them off an embarrassing performance @ Houston on Wednesday. It was a revenge game for the Cougars, the best team in the AAC, after losing @ Tulsa earlier this year. Houston blasted Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday in a game they allowed the Cougars to score 1.21 points per possession while scoring only 0.68 PPG themselves. It was simply a horrible performance by Tulsa. The last time they were beaten this badly was in early January when they lost @ Cincinnati by 31 points. How did the Golden Hurricane respond after that performance? With a 6 game winning streaking including wins over Houston & Wichita State, the two top rated teams in the AAC. SMU has struggled on the road in conference play with a 1-5 record. Their lone win was by 4 @ Memphis, a game they trailed for 95% of, were down by 11 with just 6:00 minutes remaining and took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:45 remaining. The Mustangs defense as a whole has been a problem as they rank 11th in the AAC in defensive efficiency (Tulsa ranks 2nd). On the road they are allowing 75 PPG. They just lost @ Tulane, the 2nd lowest ranked team in the league, on Wednesday and allowed the Green Wave to shoot over 50% and put up 80 points. That was a Tulane team that had lost 9 straight games and ranks 11th in the AAC in offensive efficiency. So along with our large defensive advantage with Tulsa, we also expect a big discrepancy at the FT line as the Golden Hurricane get to the line more than anyone else in the AAC while SMU shoots fewer FT’s than anyone else in the conference. Tulsa has already proven they can beat the best teams in the conference at home and SMU falls a notch or two below those teams. Lay the small number. |
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02-22-20 | Michigan v. Purdue -2.5 | 71-63 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -2.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET This is a monumentally important game for the Boilermakers. After 3 straight losses, Purdue has now gone from in the Dance to out by most bracket experts. Many of them in the first 4 out or next 4 out so they are close. Their power ratings are very strong (anywhere from 15th to 25th) however their current record of 14-13 will keep them out despite their rankings. With 3 of their final 4 games at home, Purdue needs to make a move and it needs to start today. While they’ve had a few slip ups at home (vs Big 10 leader Penn State & vs Illinois), they’ve proven they can beat very good teams and beat them bad here at Mackey Arena. They topped Iowa by 36, Michigan State by 29, Virginia by 29, and Wisconsin by 19 all here at home. The Boilers have win 41 of their last 45 games at home and we think they catch Michigan in a great spot here. The Wolverines are coming off a big road win @ Rutgers giving the Scarlet Knights their first home loss of the season. Rutgers shot just 34%, made only 3 of 18 from three, and made only 5 FT’s and the game still was tight down the stretch. Michigan has now won 6 of 7 which makes them overvalued here and means this game is MUCH more important for Purdue as the Wolverines are already solid in the NCAA field. Also, beyond their big win @ Rutgers, their only road wins in Big 10 play were @ Nebraska and @ Northwestern, the 2 worst teams in the league. They lost their other 4 conference road games. Purdue has a drastic home/road dichotomy as they average 68 PPG on the season yet at home that jumps up to 78 PPG! They also shoot 48% at home including 40% from 3-point land. These two met in January with Michigan winning at home in double OT. Purdue get that one back here and rolls at home. |
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02-22-20 | Eastern Michigan +6 v. Ball State | 55-64 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +6 over Ball State, Saturday at 1:00 PM Et We were on EMU earlier this week as a home dog vs Kent State and the Eagles rolled up a huge 70-49 win. Eastern is peaking right now winning 5 of their last 6 after starting the conference season at 0-7. Even during their 7 game losing streak to start the season we were seeing signs that this team was better than their record at 5 of those 7 losses came by 6 points or less. They weren’t far away from turning the corner and they now officially have done just that. Their only loss this month came @ Akron, who is the best team in the MAC, but just 1 point. EMU has a very good defensive team (30th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they’ve held teams to an average of just 58 PPG during this 6 game run. They should continue to have success defensively here vs a Ball State team that has topped 70 points only 3 times in their 13 MAC contests. Ball State is heading in the opposite direction after winning 4 of 5 to start the MAC season, they have since lost 5 of their last 8. The stats are in line with which direction these teams are currently headed. Over the last 5 games, EMU is outscoring their opponents 67 PPG to 58 PPG shooting 49% while limiting their opponents to 38% from the field. The last 5 games for Ball State have resulted in a scoring average of just 64 PPG while allowing 66 PPG with the Cards shooting 38% while allowing 42%. And those numbers include 3 of the same opponents (Buffalo, Western Michigan, & Kent State). Getting 6 points here is a great value with a surging EMU team. We think they have a great shot to win the game, but if not, it should be close and low scoring (total is just 120) making the points very valuable. EMU has covered 6 straight and they make it 7 in a row here. |
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02-20-20 | Oregon v. Arizona State +2.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble. Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State. They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years. They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin. The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games. He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard. Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January. The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play. They are now 9-4. Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12. Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe. The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record. Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5. So even their wins have come down to the wire. The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14. Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright. |
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02-19-20 | Indiana v. Minnesota -6 | 68-56 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Minnesota -6 over Indiana, Wed at 9 PM ET Huge game for both teams but we fully trust Minnesota will show up and play as if it is a must win game and we’re not so sure about Indiana. The Gophers played very well on Sunday vs Iowa leading for most of the game until a late offensive drought sent them to a 58-55 loss. They led Iowa by 8 points with 5:00 minutes remaining and were outscored 11-0 from that point on. On the other hand, Indiana was in a must win on Sunday as well and they didn’t show up at all. Michigan blitzed the Hoosiers 89-65 and we’re hearing there are some internal problems with the IU team. They play 3 of their next 4 on the road and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they completely take themselves out of NCAA contention during this stretch. They’ve been horrible on the road which isn’t a surprise. They are a young team and didn’t play a single true road game in the non-conference to prepare them for what they might see on the road in the Big 10. IU is just 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) on the road in conference play averaging just 61 PPG while allowing 74 PPG. Their only road win came @ Nebraska, the lowest ranked team in the conference, and they’ve won just 7 of their last 30 road games. They have lost by at least 9 points in each of their 5 road setbacks. The Gophers have some solid home wins over Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State and we see no reason they don’t roll over Indiana here. With both of these teams on the bubble, this might be the game that gets one of them in and leaves one of them out. We trust Minnesota to get it done at home on Wednesday. |
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02-19-20 | Michigan v. Rutgers -1 | 60-52 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Michigan, Wed at 7 PM ET Rutgers has been a fabulous home team this year and we expect that to continue tonight. They are a perfect 17-0 at the RAC this season (12-4 ATS) winning by an average score of 73-57. With 3 of their final 4 games on the road where they are 1-6 SU on the season, this becomes a huge home game for the NCAA hopes. Michigan has been playing much better as of late winning 5 of their last 6, however their only 2 road games during that stretch were @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska, the 2 worst teams in the conference. Beyond those 2 road wins, the Wolverines have lost all 4 of their other conference roadies @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, and @ Illinois. They also could be without starter Isaiah Livers here as he was injured in their Sunday win at home over Indiana. That would be a huge loss as he just came back from injury on February 8th after missing 8 games. Michigan was just 3-5 SU in the conference games Livers missed. These 2 met on February 1st on a neutral site (NYC) with Michigan winning a tight game 69-63. However, a close look at the numbers indicate that despite shooting poorly, Rutgers was right in the game to the end. The Knights hit only 33% of their shots, made just 25% of their 3-pointers and made only 3 FT’s. Michigan, on the other hand, shot 47% overall and from three along with making 16 FT’s yet the game came to the wire. That’s because Rutgers dominated the boards with 51 rebounds including gathering nearly 50% of their misses (offensive rebounds). We expect them to control the glass again here at home and we have no doubt they’ll shoot much better. That should lead to another home win for Rutgers who continues to be undervalued (11-4 ATS in their Big 10 games). We simply need the Scarlet Knights to win this one at home and we like them to move to 18-0 at the RAC. Take Rutgers. |
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02-19-20 | Furman v. East Tennessee State -5.5 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON East Tennessee State -5.5 over Furman, Wed at 7 PM ET The winner of this game walks away in 1st place in the Southern Conference as both teams enter with a 12-2 record. The top 3 teams in this league by a wide margin are ETSU, Furman, and UNC Greensboro. So we like to take a look at how these two teams fared vs UCNG this season. ETSU beat UNCG by 7 on the road and by 17 at home. Furman has faced Greensboro just once this season losing by 13 at home. Furman has a very solid 9-4 road record, however not one of those wins has come against a team ranked inside the top 150 (ETSU is ranked 56th) and 6 of those 9 road teams have come against teams ranked 225th or lower. East Tennessee State is 14-1 SU at home this year and they have won 38 of their last 46 home games. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 20 points and this is a program that has won at least 24 points in 4 straight seasons and they are 23-4 this year including an 11-point win @ LSU who is currently tied for 2nd place in the SEC with Auburn. The Buccaneers played a poor game over the weekend struggling to beat a bad VMI team on the road in what was an obviously look ahead spot. They picked up the win in the end and played without one of the top players in the Southern Conference, Bo Hodges, but he is back and ready to go here. These two met @ Furman earlier this year with the host winning by 9. Furman shot significantly better than ETSU in that game and also made 7 more FT’s. That continued a recent trend of the host winning easily in this series with each of the last 4 meetings being decided by at least 9 points with the home team coming out on top in each. The last 2 meetings here saw the Buccaneers win by 23 and 11 points. We have ETSU ranked a full 25 spots ahead of Furman and with revenge, a home game, and 1st place on the line we think they cover this number. |
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02-18-20 | Kent State v. Eastern Michigan +3 | Top | 49-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season. Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58. It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100. They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less. The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point. Kent is on the opposite track. After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games. They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference. The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright! EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC). While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run. During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots. This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home. Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home. |
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02-16-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota -5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game. Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game. They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State. Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well. In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road. They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win. They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak. Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road. They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern. They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later. Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points. They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league. The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here. Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here. The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row. The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win. |
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02-15-20 | DePaul +9 v. Creighton | 64-93 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON DePaul +9 over Creighton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET We like the value and the situation with DePaul in this game. These two met just a few weeks ago @ DePaul and the Blue Demons were actually favored by 2 in that game. That tells us they should be +6 or +7 here so we’re getting some value on the Demons. Creighton won that game in DePaul making 10 three pointers (DePaul was just 3 of 17 from deep) and 23 FT’s (DePaul made 17). The Blue Demons won the battle on the boards and pulled down a solid 34% of their missed shots with offensive rebounds. That won’t change here as the Blue Demons are solid on the glass while the Blue Jays are a very poor rebounding team. The Blue Demons also played that game without one of their top players (Jaylen Butz) and he is back at full strength for this one. DePaul is also very good defensively which is one thing we like to see in a hefty underdog. They rank 49th nationally in defensive efficiency and 65th in eFG% defense, both much better than Creighton. While the Jays have the edge offensively, we think DePaul can keep this close as they seemingly always do. They are 7-3 ATS this year as an underdog and despite their very misleading 1-10 Big East record, the Demons have played tight on the road vs Villanova (lost in OT), Marquette (lost by 3), Seton Hall (lost by 7), Georgetown (lost by 4), and @ St Johns (lost by 7). Thus, they have not lost a single conference road game by more than 7 and have had opportunities to knock off many of the best teams in the conference away from home. They catch Creighton coming off a monumental road win @ Seton Hall on Wednesday. The Jays gave the Pirates just their 2nd Big East loss this season. Creighton also has a huge game on deck with Marquette. Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays go through the motions here vs a team they’ve already beaten. That would be a mistake because DePaul has had a full week off to prepare and they’ve been a very tough out in conference play. Take the hefty points. |
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02-15-20 | Notre Dame +12.5 v. Duke | 60-94 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Notre Dame +12.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET Way too many points here in our opinion for a Duke team that is overvalued vs a Notre Dame team that is undervalued. The Irish are 15-9 SU but a very solid 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog in ACC play. Their conference losses have come by margins of 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 11 points. The 11 point loss was in the season opener @ UNC way back on November 6th. They already have 3 road wins in ACC play @ Syracuse, @ Clemson, and @ Georgia Tech. They are catching Duke in an ideal spot for a letdown as the Devils are off an OT road win @ arch rival UNC and a 5-point home win over FSU who sits just 1 game below Duke in the ACC standings. The Devils also have a big game on deck with in-state rival NC State. While Duke is 11-2 in conference play, they have been far from dominant with 7 of their 11 wins coming by fewer than 12 points (which is tonight’s spread vs Notre Dame). Three of those four wins have come vs Miami (twice) and BC, the 2 worst teams in the ACC. Duke has actually already lost 2 home games this year vs Stephen F Austin and Louisville. They are also just 5-7 ATS as a favorite in ACC play. Notre Dame is playing very well right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming in OT @ Virginia. They are a veteran team with 4 seniors in the starting line up that hasn’t been fazed by road games. They have an efficient offense ranking 3rd in the ACC in offensive efficiency so they definitely shoot well enough to hang with Duke. They have taken the two other highly rated teams in the ACC (Louisville and FSU) to the wire in their meeting this year and we don’t see Duke pulling away here. We like the Irish to give Duke a run here in Durham with Duke winning but by single digits. |
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02-15-20 | VCU v. Richmond -1.5 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Richmond -1.5 over VCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET Revenger for Richmond from just a few weeks ago when they were embarrassed @ VCU 87-68. The Rams shot 50% for the game and nearly 50% from beyond the arc in that win. Richmond, 18-6 on the season, simply played a poor game and did so without starting forward Blake Francis on the floor as he recently missed 6 games due to an injury including their loss @ VCU. Francis is now back on the court and has really given the Spiders a lift in his 2 games since returning with 32 points, both road wins vs Fordham and LaSalle. Remember this is a big rivalry game with both teams located in Richmond, Virginia so you can bet the Spiders have been waiting for this one. VCU is trending downward losing 2 of their last 3 including a 5 point home loss on Wednesday to George Mason as a 14 point favorite. Starting guard Marcus Evans injured his knee in the game and may not play here. If so, he might be on a limited minutes restriction. Richmond has better efficiency numbers in conference play both offensively and defensively. They also are very good at taking care of the ball (15% turnover rated good for 13th nationally) which will counteract what VCU does best and that is create turnovers. Because the Rams like to play aggressive defense with pressure, they in turn commit a lot of fouls. In fact, they foul more than any other team in the Atlantic 10 conference. That plays right into Richmond’s game as they shoot 78% from the line on the year which is the 9th best mark in the country. We like this match up for Richmond and now that they are back to full strength we’ll lay the points. |
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02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5.5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion. The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win. Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th. Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record. Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night. Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas. The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year). It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game. Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting. This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year. They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road. They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference. Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road. They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots. That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense. This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well. They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team. Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league. The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12). However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally). Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards. Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season. We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance. This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned). Double digit win here for Baylor. |
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02-13-20 | Washington State v. UCLA -8 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season. After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense. They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points. UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points. They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks. On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington. That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300. Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference. They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games. UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT. That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season. Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA. The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. |
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02-13-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -3 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET #644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season. After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11. Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one. That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer. After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter. He is back and ready to go tonight. Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road. Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss. Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock. The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here. In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy). The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team. They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt. The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference. These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR. Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home. In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68. Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire. Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season. We like Texas State to roll in this game. |
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02-12-20 | Xavier +6 v. Butler | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET These 2 are trending in opposite directions. After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points. Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month. Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton. That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8. Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep. They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less. Butler’s defense is headed south. For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP. However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference. For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play. The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG. In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential. This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points. Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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02-11-20 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year. Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results. We’ve reached that point tonight. UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season. In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining. The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP. It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high. Even with that they had a shot to win. That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense. It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight. Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games). On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend. The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league. Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one. With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover. |
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02-11-20 | Penn State v. Purdue -5 | 88-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET #602 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET Penn State is on a very solid 6-0 run but we feel this is the spot where it comes to an end. They are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and they might be without one of their top players. 2nd leading scorer Myreon Jones (14 PPG) missed Saturday’s 83-77 home win over Minnesota due to an illness. His status is up in the air for Tuesday’s game @ Purdue. If you’re going to beat the Boilers on their home court you need to be at full strength and be at the top of your game. Purdue has absolutely destroyed a number of very good teams at home this year. They topped Virginia by 29, Michigan State by 29, Iowa by 36, and Wisconsin by 19. The Boilers offensive numbers at home have been great averaging 78 PPG on 48% shooting and nearly 42% from beyond the arc. They should be able to take advantage of a PSU defense that allowed 74 PPG on the road and ranks 9th in the Big 10 (conference games) at defending the arc. Defensively at home Purdue has held all but one opponent under 70 points (in regulation) in Big 10 play including limiting 3 of those conference opponents to 51 points or less. They are just a completely different team at home. They have struggled for much of the year on the road but we really like the fact they won by 12 @ Indiana over the weekend which tells us they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. This PSU team is solid but they are a bit overvalued due to their 6 game run. They are a poor rebounding team which doesn’t bode well vs PU, the #1 offensive rebounding team in the conference. Purdue is 9-3 ATS this year as a home favorite and they’ve won 15 straight here vs Penn State. Take the Boilers at home in this one. |
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02-10-20 | Florida State +8 v. Duke | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright. Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play. FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5. The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less. They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that. Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC. The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining. They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season. Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight. The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville. Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category. We like this match up for the FSU defense. They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league). That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep). FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC. Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot. This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team. While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win. Take the points as this one goes to the wire. |
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02-09-20 | George Mason v. Massachusetts -1 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win. The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board. The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24. While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7). The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team. That is not the case. After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field. UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island). They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss. Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play. They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home. They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road. UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today. |
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02-08-20 | Purdue v. Indiana -1.5 | 74-62 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana -1.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2 PM ET This is a huge game and nearly a must win for IU’s NCAA tourney chances. They are coming off 3 straight losses and now sit at 15-7 overall / 5-6 in conference play. Right now they sit on the bubble and they’ve struggled on the road so home wins are a must. Their 3 losses entering Saturday came by 1-point at home vs Maryland (IU blew a 6 point lead in the final minute of play), along with road losses @ Penn State and @ Ohio State. The Boilers are off an impressive 104-68 win at home over Iowa. Purdue at home isn’t the same as Purdue on the road. At home they’ve destroyed some very good competition including Michigan State (by 29), Iowa (by 36), Wisconsin (by 19), and Virginia (by 29). On the road the Boilermakers are just 2-6 SU with their lone wins coming @ Ohio (10th rated team in the MAC) and @ Northwestern by 3 (one of the two worst teams in the Big 10). They have averaged just 58 PPG on the road while making only 36% of their shots and 26% from 3. That’s going to be a problem vs an Indiana team that is much more potent at home averaging 80 PPG on 48% shooting. Purdue shot so far above their season averages in their win over Iowa on Wednesday (63% from the field / 56% from 3) and averaged a ridiculous 1.53 points per possession, a season high. They come back to earth on Saturday on the road where they are a completely different team. While PU was playing on Wednesday, Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this rivalry game. IU has some extra motivation as well as they’ve lost 5 straight to their in-state rival. We fully expect Indiana to win this game. We also love the fact that if NDSU leads late and needs to make FT’s, they rank #1 nationally hitting 82% from the line. |
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02-08-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma +3.5 | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Oklahoma +3.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 2 PM ET Just a huge home game for OU and their NCAA tourney hopes. They are 14-8 on the season and 4-5 in Big 12 play. They have 8 wins over top 100 teams and this one would be their biggest of the season. The Sooners are 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming vs Kansas. WVU is 18-4 on the season but all 4 of their losses have come on the road. In Big 12 play they are 1-3 SU on the road with their only road won in conference play coming @ Oklahoma State who is 1-8 in Big 12 play. They are just 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite and Oklahoma matches up really well with the Mountaineers. WVU thrives on offensive rebounding and creating turnovers. They are not a great shooting team especially from 3 where the hit only 30% ranking 312th nationally and they make only 62% of their FT’s. The problem for West Virginia in this game is that OU is a very good defensive rebounding team (1st in the Big 12) which will neutralize WVU’s offense rebounding strength. The Sooners also protect the ball very well (1st in the Big 12 in offensive turnover %) which takes away WVU’s advantage creating turnovers. Just last year OU was favored by 10.5 points vs WVU here at home (OU won by 12) and now they are getting 3 points. Too much of an adjustment here as we like Oklahoma to win this game outright. |
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02-08-20 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -5.5 | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET Two teams headed in opposite directions here. North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit. The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game. They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit. Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin. They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU. These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses. NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson. The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings. ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG. Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %. North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense. ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9. The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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02-07-20 | Maryland v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference. As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss. There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point. We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that. Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland. The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one. Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58. To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement. In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game. Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch. Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak. Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season. Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game. Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games. On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots. Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games. Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday. |
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02-06-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Appalachian State | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading. They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players. 6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses). Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned). One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team. UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining. That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned. Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field. UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks. Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt. Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago. Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned. We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games. Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers. Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers. Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em. We’ll take App State to win this one. |
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02-05-20 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota. The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch. They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot. The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension. Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win. Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough. They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games. They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road. Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games. While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game. We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home. |
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02-04-20 | Penn State v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone. After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points. After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland. All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road. At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points. MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime. They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss. We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins. It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday. PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7. Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game. The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game. That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home. Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year. The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points. This is a small number to lay in this situation. MSU by double digits. |
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02-01-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU -6 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog. The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14). BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th. The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable. This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well. The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining. On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night. BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9). With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco. We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home. St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far. In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time). BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %. Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep. They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits. St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge. Cougars cover easily here. |