Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-17 | USC -3.5 v. Vanderbilt | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After opening-night rout of local big West entry CS Fullerton, SC might have been guilty of reading too many of its glowing press clippings as it couldn’t put away Summit rep North Dakota State until the final minutes three night later. That close shave vs. the Bison should make it easier for Andy Enfield to get his squad’s attention for this trip into SEC country vs. Bryce Drew’s Vandy side that is suddenly asking a lot of questions after losing to crosstown Belmont last Monday. The Commodores are not hitting their triples (only 27% in first two), and Drew is scrambling to departed 7-footer Luke Kornet, who did a bit of everything for Vandy the past couple of years. Kornet’s defense could have also come in handy vs. Trojans’ NBA bound front liners Bennie Boatwright & Chimezie Metu, scoring 37 points per game between them in early going. |
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11-18-17 | Nevada -10.5 v. Pacific | 89-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sources report that shrewd Nevada HC Eric Musselman has made a seamless transition after the departures of the top scorers from last years loop winner and Big Dance qualifier. Musselman’s latest batch of transfers are already making a huge impact, specifically ex-NC State twins and 6-7 wings Cody and Caleb Martin, tallying almost 35 points per game between them as the Pack (90 points per game) is off to a winging 3-0 SU and spread start. Meanwhile, Iowa State transfer G Hallice Cooke keeping defenses loose while canning a cool 70% beyond arc in early going, and opponents (including A-10 heavyweight Rhode Island) having big problems coping with Nevada’s non-stop 6-7 PF Jordan Carolina (averaging 21 & 10 the first week). Asking a bit much of Damon Stoudemire’s completely-rebuilt UOP to stay within earshot, especially noting how fellow WCC member Santa Clara was buried at home by 30 at midweek by the rampaging Pack |
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11-18-17 | La Salle v. Northwestern -7.5 | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Northwestern mentor Chris Collins was highly displeased with his team’s poor defensive effort in 92-88 home loss to Creighton on Wednesday. So, with the Wildcats surely digging in on the stop end, willing to lay single digits vs. LaSalle squad in its toughest test to date. NW’s star 6-7 jr. F Vic Law, who poured in 30 points. vs. Blue Jays, should have another field day vs. the Explorers’ still-shaky interior defense, while marvelous 6-3 sr. G Bryant McIntosh controls the flow from the perimeter. Resilient Wildcats 7-1 vs. spread last 8 following a SU loss |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +1.5 | 71-65 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units I am not convinced the Tar Heels are quite as good as their 2016 edition, which also made it to the final game and was tied with Villanova in the final second before a Kris Jenkins 3-pointer won it for the Wildcats. That UNC edition had an athletic big in 6-9 Brice Johnson and a nervy bomber in Marcus Paige who was not afraid to step up and take the big shot. Still, the 2017 version has proven remarkably resilient, already pulling three nailbiters out of the fire in the Dance. And there is always a chance that an unsuspecting hero (such as capable sr. G Nate Britt, who sank a couple of key shots on Saturday vs. Oregon) steps forward for the Heels. But, aside from Meeks and Jackson, UNC was a combined 8 for 42 from the floor in the semis and did not appear entirely comfortable with their shots, probably bothered by the depth perception adjustments in the football stadium. Though I don’t expect Berry and Hicks to shoot a combined 3 for 26 from the floor as on Saturday, I am not sure Williams can count on much scoring from them, either. And let’s not forget that the Gonzaga defense has allowed foes to hit only 36.5% from the floor the entire season, tied with UCF (thanks largely to its 7-6 C Tacko Fall) for the top mark in the nation. Previously-hot South Carolina could only connect on 37.9% of its shots on Saturday. The fundamentally-sound Bulldog defense is adept at staying “in front” of opposing dribblers, which should come in very handy vs. the Heels, who as a result are unlikely to be able to crash the glass as usual. A season’s worth of exemplary performance is not a mirage. This Gonzaga edition has beaten all comers (except a late-season home letdown vs. explosive BYU), with most of the big wins away from Spokane. With depth, balance, size, and more athleticism on the perimeter than past editions, the Zags also appear built to beat the Tar Heels, who will likely fall just short for the second straight year. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 105 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The normal North Carolina size edge, which Williams has exploited all season for a nation’s-best +13 rebound margin, and resultant dominance on the offensive glass, might come harder this weekend for the Heels. That’s because, against the Ducks, Williams is likely reluctant to go with his normal bigs of 6-10 Kennedy Meeks and 6-9 Isaiah Hicks at the same time, as the defensive match ups caused by Oregon’s lineup figure to force Roy’s hand. That’s because Williams could get away with committing Hicks or Meeks to Oregon’s mobile 6-9 pivot Jordan Bell, but neither would be a good fit against the Ducks’ 6-7 wing Dillon Brooks, their most likely other defensive assignment. Expect, then, to see Williams use a lot more of F Luke Maye, which might not be an altogether bad thing after Maye excelled (16.5 ppg) in last weekend’s regionals at Memphis, including hitting the game-winning jump shot in the last second vs. Kentucky. But Maye’s presence will likely be at the expense of either Meeks or Hicks (and also perhaps of 6-10 frosh Tony Bradley, who has played key minutes for UNC in the Dance), which would correspondingly limit some of the trademark dominance the Heels have displayed on the boards all season...especially on the offensive glass. There is also going to be plenty of pressure on Heel PG Joel Berry to hit some outside shots (especially with 6-8 wing Justin Jackson misfiring repeatedly beyond the arc last weekend, when he hit just 3 of 13 triples in Memphis) and to limit his TOs, both of which have been recurring issues in the Dance. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina +6.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 102 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units While South Carolina's joyride might be coming to an end vs. tall, deep, and experienced Gonzaga, the point spread of 6½ seems enticing enough to shade the dog. The Zags have four DD scorers, with their top seven players logging 17 or more minutes per game. Rotating seven-footers Przemek Karnowski (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Zach Collins (9.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg) represent inside size rarely encountered TY by USC. But Gonzaga really only pulled away from upstart Xavier in the Elite Eight when the Zags finally started hitting their treys (12 of 24 vs. the Musketeers), and Chris Mack’s Big East overachievers ran out of gas. Hitting from distance is hard to do vs. the in-your-face (but rarely fouling) Gamecock defense, as USC’s foes have found out. Opposing coaches have been praising the Cocks for how well they “close out.” One of the more impressive occurrences in the tourney has been the development and confidence shown by the South Carolina attack, which suffered through some erratic stretches in the regular season. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +3.5 v. TCU | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The No. 7 team in the Big 12 meets the No. 11 team in the ACC for the 2017 NIT title! Edges appear small in a game that figures to feature improving 6-11 TCU C Vladimir Brodziansky (13.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg) vs. 6-10 Ga. Tech C Ben Lammers (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg). Brodziansky is more likely to step outside and face the basket, trying to draw out the postoriented Lammers. GT could perhaps gain an advantage with versatile 6-5 frosh Josh Okogie, who hits 75% of his FTs as part of his 16.1 ppg (prior to the semis). Meanwhile, Horned Frog contributors G Alex Robinson (11.4 ppg) and F Kenrich Williams (10.9 ppg) can be liabilities at the FT line (63% and 57%, respectively) in the late going. So TCU could end up being quite dependent upon 6-5 freshman Desmond Bane (5 of 11 triples first three rounds) and 6-6 sr. Brandon Parrish (7 of 15 treys) to connect from downtown under title-game pressure. |
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03-29-17 | Furman +3 v. St. Peter's | 51-77 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Truth be told, I was wishing these two didn’t draw one another in the semifinal, such is my respect for each. Especially the host Peacocks, who provided several point spread wins down the stretch thanks to their stingy defense, ranking sixth nationally in scoring allowance (just 61.1 ppg). But Saint Peter’s is often challenged offensively, usually forced to dump the ball on the blocks to rugged 6-8, 251-lb. PF Quadir Welton (top scorer at only 12 ppg) when needing a bucket, with the attack threatening to bog down completely if 6-2 George Washington transfer G Nick Griffin (43% triples) can’t find his stroke beyond the arc. Battle-tested Furman, whose 14-4 SU mark tied for first in the combative SoCon, has more offensive options, including the premier scorer in this matchup, 6-2 jr. G Devin Sibley (17.6 ppg; 52.4% FGs over the past 14 games), who gives the Paladins an edge when these teams need to find a go to scorer in the late going. |
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03-29-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Wyoming -7.5 | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 31 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like the Chants, the Cowboys were unblemished vs. the spread in the earlier rounds of the CBI at home, winning and covering vs. Eastern Washington, UMKC, and dangerous Utah Valley at the Arena-Auditorium, where Wyo has now won and covered 6 of its last 7 stretching back to Mountain West regular season action. The Cowboys have to be somewhat encouraged by their 81 points in Game One without much help from their high scorer, slithery 6-7 wing Justin James (16 ppg), normally a 47% FG shooter (46% treys), who was only 5-for-17 from the floor (just 1 of 7 triples) at Conway. At some point in this series, the Cowboys’ lengthy perimeter (including 6-7 James, 6-8 Hayden Dalton, and 6-5 Jason McManamen) figures to cause matchup problems for the smaller Coastal back court. Worst yet, the Chants are expected to be shorthanded, as sr. G Shivaughn Wiggins (10.3 ppg) missed Game One of the Finals with a knee problem, while spindly 6-5 sr. Colton Ray-St. Cyr (14 points; 4 of 5 treys in the opener) is done for the tourney with a knee injury of his own. Expect the Cowboy comeback to begin tonight in Laramie as Wyo evens the series. |
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03-28-17 | TCU v. UCF +2.5 | 68-53 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units TCU has made a dramatic turnaround under first-year HC and alum Jamie Dixon, who led Pittsburgh to the Big Dance in 11 of his 13 seasons in the Steel City. Horned Frogs’ 6-11 Slovakian C Vladimir Brodziansky (13.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) has developed into one of the top big men in the Big 12, while 6-1 jr. Alex Robinson (Texas A&M transfer) and 6-7 jr. F Kenrich Williams (he had the school’s first triple-double vs. Richmond!) provide steady scoring support. Additionally, 6-5 frosh G Desmon Bane (6.8 ppg) has been blossoming in the NIT, generating 13 points off the bench in each of the victories over Iowa & the Spiders. By the same token, UCF’s first-year mentor Johnny Dawkins has done a marvelous job in his debut in Orlando, leading the hard-nosed Knights to 24 victories after they won a total of only 37 games over the previous three campaigns. As the Stanford head honcho, Dawkins—who has gotten the Knights (with only seven scholarship players due to injuries/defections) to quickly buy into his philosophy of toughness and discipline—led the Cardinal to two NIT championships (2013 & 2015). I feel this should be a pick ’em game in the Big Apple, so I am suggesting “taking” with defensively-stifling, strong-boarding and surging UCF (allowing 67.2 ppg; a nation-leading 36.2% FGs; +8.8 rebounding margin, 6th nationally), which is 9-1 in its last 10 outings. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | 61-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First, some recognition is due to Bakersfield, this year’s regular-season champion of the WAC and last year’s winner of the WAC tourney. Three times a national champ at the Division II level in the 90s, the Roadrunners (as a 15-point dog) hung tough in earning a cover in last year’s NCAA tourney, falling 82-68 vs. eventual Final Four team Oklahoma in CSUB’s first try in the Big Dance. And the Roadrunners have been undaunted in winning three straight as a visitor (at Cal, Colorado State, UTArlington) to reach the Garden. Something good is happening with the team put together by Rod Barnes, a former HC at Ole Miss and Georgia State. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech found itself on the outside looking in when this year’s NCAA teams were called on Selection Sunday, watching all nine teams ahead of the Yellow Jackets in the ACC standings get the call to the Big Dance. While CSUB has been traveling for the entire NIT tournament, higher-seeded Tech was gifted with a pair of home games (Indiana, Belmont) before winning at Ole Miss in the quarterfinals to reach New York. The Yellow Jackets are only 3-11 in all games away from home this season despite the emergence of 6-5 blue-chipper Josh Okogie (16.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to go with well-seasoned, NBA bound 6-10 jr. C Ben Lammers (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg). |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky +2.5 v. North Carolina | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In this clash pitting two high-octane attacks, I have more faith that defensively-superior Kentucky (42.4% FGs allowed; 5.3 bpg) will come up with more critical stops in crunch time than offense-minded UNC, which allowed a different SEC foe, Arkansas, to find plenty of open looks until clamping down in the final 3 minutes in the Round of 32. The Wildcats’ budding 6-10 frosh C “Bam” Adebayo & battle-tested 6-9 sr. F Derek Willis can hold their own in the paint area with UNC’s more celebrated frontliners. So, look for UK to notch its 15th straight victory in Memphis, where mastermind John Calipari served as the Memphis head honcho for nine years before taking over in Lexington in 2009. When these two teams met in Las Vegas back on Dec. 17, the Cats’ Malik Monk had 47 and UK won. Monk has slowed a bit, but the Wildcats are much improved overall. |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3 | 77-70 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the rubber match between these SEC rivals, who split a pair of games this season, with the home side winning each. While SC was noted for its snarling defense for much of the season, its games have become faster-paced as the campaign has progressed, which did not help SC much in its 81-66 loss at Gainesville on Feb. 21. Which proved Florida can shift gears as needed, especially when soph G KeVaughn Allen (13.4 ppg, but 26 in that 15-point win) has located his shooting radar. Speaking of radar, the Gators didn’t even register on it from 3-point land in the first meeting at Columbia back on Jan 18, missing all 17 (!) triple attempts, but still losing by only 4. With the Gators maintaining their defensive intensity into late March, they have a Final Four look about them. |
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03-25-17 | Oregon +7.5 v. Kansas | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The key matchup in this Elite Eight battle will likely be Oregon HC Dana Altman sticking his 6-7 ace Dillon Brooks on Bill Self’s versatile 6-8 frosh phenom Josh Jackson; Brooks gives the Ducks the sort of unique component to neutralize Jackson that most Kansas foes have not owned. Depth issues could arise for the Jayhawks in a short turnaround vs. a high-quality foe. And the KU defense will be stretched against the various inside and outside Oregon weaponry, which has continued to operate at a high level even minus key 6-10 F Chris Boucher. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier +8 v. Gonzaga | 59-83 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Xavier comes into his one after stuffing Arizona following minor upsets of Maryland and Florida State to get to this West final vs. Gonzaga. The “Muskies” have stayed hot, and just might very well give the Bulldogs a run for their money in the fight to reach the Final Four. Basketball fans were well aware that the X-Men “knew how to play” before their late-season slump brought about by the loss of PG Edmond Sumner followed a little later by the ankle injury that bothered 6-6 wing Trevon Bluiett. Please note that under Mark Few, with all of his tourney teams the last 17 years, the Zags have never made it to the Final Four. Xavier has just enough quickness outside and bangers inside to give Gonzaga a battle. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin +2 v. Florida | Top | 83-84 | Win | 100 | 52 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Wisconsin is aiming for its third Final Four berth in the last four seasons. The Badgers became the only team in the nation to advance to four straight Sweet 16s when they upset No. 1 overall seed Villanova in the Round of 32 last weekend thanks to continued terrific play from Bronson Koenig. The Badgers have two key seniors with multiple Final Four experience in Koenig, who has drained 11 3-pointers en route to 45 points through two games of this event, and Nigel Hayes, who is averaging 17.5 points and nine boards through two NCAA contests. Ethan Happ, who notched at least 10 points and eight rebounds in five straight games, is another cause for concern for the Gators. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA -105 v. Kentucky | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Sure, surging Kentucky (on 13-game win skein) in its sixth Sweet 16 in eight years under HC John Calipari—is seeking to avenge its earlier 97-92 loss to UCLA, which ended the Wildcats’ 42-game home win streak. In that high-profile clash in early December, the balanced Bruins had six players score in DDs, while hitting a sizzling 53% from the field, compared to 41.2% for UK. It can be tough as nails and oh-so-rare to knock off Calipari twice in the same campaign. But prefer to support UCLA (third Sweet 16 in last 4 years), who lead the nation in scoring (90.3 ppg), FG percentage (51.9%), assists (21.5 pg) and assist-to-TO ratio. The Bruins have also been hustling more on the stop end (42% FGs allowed; 5.4 bpg; 11th nationally) down the stretch. Admittedly, the Wildcats’ defense is more “connected” after finally internalizing Coach Cal’s philosophy. Nevertheless, UK will once again have trouble slowing down the explosive Bruin attack now that sharp-shooting sr. G Bryce Alford has snapped out of his mini-slump by canning 4 of 11 from distance in his team’s 79-67 victory over defensively-sticky Cincinnati in the Round of 32. The same can’t be said for the Wildcats’ frosh sensation, 6-3 G Malik Monk, who has converted a rim-clanking 20 of 64 from the field (7 of 26 from deep) in his last six outings. The Wildcats’ gifted 6-10 frosh C “Bam” Adebayo has become a greater force in the paint area down the stretch. But UCLA also has been benefiting from more instrumental play supplied by unheralded 7-0 jr. C Thomas Welsh (10.8 ppg), who has scored 27 pts. along with 15 caroms so far in the Big Dance. Moreover, the finely-tuned Bruins have amassed 47 assists while committing a meager 9 TOs vs. gritty Kent State and the defense-oriented Bearcats. And, since the boys from Westwood have transcendent 6-6 frosh Lonzo Ball (considered the likely top lottery pick in the next NBA draft) and UK does not, believe the Wildcats, who narrowly escaped vs. Wichita State in the Round of 32, drop to 0-3 as an underdog their last 3 campaigns. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor -3.5 | 70-50 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This marks the fourth time in 14 seasons under Scott Drew that the Bears made it to the Sweet 16 and they've advanced to the Elite Eight twice with wins over Saint Mary's in 2010 and Xavier in 2012 while losing to No. 2 seed Wisconsin in 2014. Motley, a 6-10 junior forward who has played himself into NBA lottery consideration, leads the team in scoring (17.3) and led the Big 12 in rebounding (9.9), and had 19 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks in the Bears' 82-78 second-round victory over USC. Junior point guard Manu Lecomte (12.3) is the only other player averaging in double figures but 7-0 junior forward Jo Lual-Acuil Jr., who averages 9.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks, and junior guard Al Freeman, who had 21 points in the team's 91-73 first-round victory over New Mexico State, have also been impact performers. Baylor is 9-1 against SEC teams since the 2012-13 season, including two wins over South Carolina. |
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03-24-17 | Butler +7.5 v. North Carolina | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Have the utmost respect for talent-rich UNC and likeable, 14-year mentor Roy Williams, who’s making his 18th trip to the Sweet 16, dating back to his time at Kansas. But it is somewhat troubling that the board-crashing, unselfish Tar Heels (who lead the nation in rebounding margin; 2nd in apg)—spearheaded up front by 6-10 sr. C Kennedy Meeks and versatile 6-8 jr. Justin Jackson—nearly blew a DD lead in their harrowing 72-65 victory over Arkansas in the second round, needing a 12-0 run over the final 3 minutes to knock off the Razorbacks. While we expect UNC’s key G Joel Berry II (ankle injury; 3 of 21 from the field in the Dance) to be more effective with extra time to heal, still recommend grabbing 7½ pts. (line at TGS presstime) with tough-minded Butler, back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011. There will be no “intimidation factor” vs. the undaunted, smartly-coached Bulldogs, who defeated loaded, Sweet 16 team Arizona in the Las Vegas Invitational in late November, as well as prevailing twice vs. LY’s national champ Villanova, plus another Sweet 16 squad (Xavier) in the reg.-season, before losing to the Musketeers in the Big East tourney. Moreover, UNC won’t easily unleash its devastating transition game vs. methodical, tempo-controlling, mistake-minimizing Butler, owning a solid 3.2 TO margin (21st nationally). Don’t see the bruising Tar Heels, who thrive on the offensive glass, getting a plethora of second-chance opportunities vs. the Bulldogs’ industrious inside duo of 6-8 jr. F Tyler Wideman & 6-7 jr. F Andrew Chrabascz, who’ve faced a string of high-quality bigs in the Big East. In addition, the Butler attack has displayed more punch after savvy 3rd-year HC Chris Holtmann decided to bring top scorer 6-7 jr. Kelan Martin (16.1 ppg) and Kamar Baldwin (10.1 ppg) off the bench. Fundamentally, look for 6-3 jr. Bulldog defensive stopper G Kethan Savage, who stifled Middle Tennessee star G Giddy Potts (0 for 8 from the field) in the Round of 32, to be a virtual savage vs. UNC’s go-to G Joel Berry II. And envision an inspired effort from the Bulldogs’ integral 6-2 sr. G Avery Woodson, who played two years at Memphis before transferring to Indianapolis. The resolute, deep Bulldogs are 6-1-1 their last 8 as an underdog, and they have endured only one DD loss all season. |
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03-23-17 | Xavier +7.5 v. Arizona | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Musketeers struggled initially after point guard Edmond Sumner tore an ACL on Jan. 30, but junior guard Trevon Bluiett sparked the team’s postseason surge by averaging 25 points on 51.7 percent shooting in the NCAA Tournament. After knocking off two higher seeds in the first two rounds, Xavier aims for another upset in today’s Sweet 16 as the 11th-seeded Musketeers face No. 2 Arizona in an NCAA Tournament West Region matchup in San Jose, Calif. Xavier is back in the regional semifinals for the second time in three years following victories over Maryland and Florida State. |
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03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For those who were thinking the Big Ten might not have a team escape the sub-regionals (and count me among the doubters), Purdue is one of three league reps still alive into the Sweet 16. In the Boilermakers’ case, erasing the bad taste left over from last year’s stunning first-round exit, courtesy of Little Rock. More recently, there’s also some redemption for the Boilers’ early exit at the Big Ten Tourney, which might have temporarily gotten the masses off Purdue’s scent last week in Milwaukee, where the Riveters eased past Vermont and then outscored one of the nation’s hottest teams (Iowa State) to survive and advance. But the ride likely ends today at the Sprint Center, where Kansas will have a near-home court edge. Though the KC venue did not help the Jayhawks in the recent Big 12 Tourney, when they were KO’d in their first game by upset minded TCU. Bill Self’s bunch, however, had a legit excuse vs. the Horned Frogs, as 6-8 star frosh Josh Jackson (16.6 ppg) was out due to suspension. Jackson was back in action at the sub-regionals in Tulsa, looking as good as ever, especially when scoring 23 in KU’s 90-70 second-round romp past capable Michigan State. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Top-seeded Gonzaga looks for its third trip to the Elite Eight when it faces pressure-based West Virginia in today's NCAA Tournament West Region Sweet 16 contest at San Jose, Calif. Ball-handling will be of utmost importance for the Bulldogs when they face the fourth-seeded Mountaineers, who are the national leaders in turnovers forced at 20.1 per game. West Virginia's relentless approach is known as "Press Virginia" and the squad said it feels overlooked despite the school reaching the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in 10 seasons under coach Bob Huggins |
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03-23-17 | Michigan v. Oregon +1.5 | Top | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Tyler Dorsey continued his recent tear as he poured in 27 points, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with 38.4 seconds remaining, in the comeback win against Rhode Island. Brooks scored 19 points and pulled down seven rebounds to become the Ducks' all-time leader in NCAA Tournament scoring with 123 points as he passed Joseph Young (105) and Elgin Cook (117). Jordan Bell secured a game-high 12 rebounds as the Ducks erased an 11-point deficit in the second half and matched a program record for most wins in a season. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units None of the current UCLA players likely remember when the Bruins knocked off the top-seeded Bearcats in double-overtime to reach the Sweet Sixteen in 2002, but the Bruins probably learned a lot about it during their off day. Like that day when Dan Gadzuric dominated the middle, Jason Kapono was sharp from outside and freshman point guard Cedric Bozeman ran the offense smoothly and efficiently, UCLA will need 6-10 freshman T.J. Leaf to be the best post player on both teams, Bryce Alford to shoot a high percentage from outside and Ball to distribute the ball well. A player the Bearcats may have trouble matching against is 7-foot forward Thomas Welch, who should find room to implement his dangerous mid-range game. |
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03-19-17 | South Carolina v. Duke -7.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Gamecocks were somewhat of an afterthought after losing five of their last seven leading up to the event, but they used a dominant second half to rout Marquette 93-73 on Friday for their first NCAA Tournament win since 1973. They also figure to have something of a home-court advantage playing at Bon Secours Wellness Arena, although the Blue Devils say they relish the thought of a hostile environment.Duke's Mike Krzyzewski has made an NCAA-record 23 trips to the Sweet 16 as a coach. The Blue Devils rank third in 3-point defense, holding opponents to 29.2 percent |
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03-19-17 | USC +7 v. Baylor | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Trojans have been the feel-good story of the tournament so far, coming back from 17 down to defeat Providence, 75-71, in a First Four game on Wednesday night and then rallying from a 12-point second half deficit to edge sixth-seeded SMU, 66-65, on Friday afternoon. It was the 13th time that USC had a double-digit comeback win this season, the most such victories in Division I. USC's 26 wins are a school record, surpassing the previous mark of 25 set in 2007. |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island +5.5 v. Oregon | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Oregon dominated the paint against the smaller Gaels but faces a tougher test against Rhode Island, which led from start to finish in Friday’s 84-72 upset of No. 6 seed Creighton. Freshman guard Jeff Dowtin scored a career-high 23 points against Creighton and senior forward Kuran Iverson added 17 as the Rams recorded their ninth straight victory and first in the NCAA Tournament since 1998. Forward Hassan Martin registered a double-double and helped limit Creighton big man Justin Patton to eight points on 3-of-12 shooting. Junior guard E.C. Matthews averages 14.9 points to lead the Rams, who finished tied for third in the Atlantic 10 Conference regular season but earned an automatic bid after winning three games in three days in Pittsburgh. |
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03-19-17 | Arkansas v. North Carolina -10 | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units North Carolina has unfinished business in the NCAA Tournament, but the next step for the top-seeded Tar Heels is Sunday's encounter with eighth-seeded Arkansas in Greenville, S.C. The Razorbacks advanced to the second round in the South Region with a close win over Seton Hall, while the Tar Heels cruised in their tournament opener. Justin Jackson was the story for North Carolina on Friday, posting 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting (5-of-8 from the arc) in a much-needed performance for the ACC Player of the Year. The junior had shot 7-of-31 from the arc during a four-game shooting slump and also pulled down seven rebounds in the Round of 64 - his highest total in two months. This is the sixth meeting in the NCAA Tournament between the teams. Both of the Razorbacks' last two NCAA Tournament exits came at the hands of the Tar Heels (2008, 2015). |
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03-19-17 | Wichita State +5 v. Kentucky | Top | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units In addition to owning far and away the Missouri Valley Conference's top scoring offense (81.5 points), the Shockers boast the conference's top marks in field-goal percentage defense (37.6 - fourth in the nation), 3-point percentage defense (30.9 - 17th) and rebounding margin (plus-9.2 - third). Leading scorers Markis McDuffie (11.7 points) and freshman guard Landry Shamet (11.2) shot a combined 4-of-17 against Dayton but received plenty of help from Zach Brown (12 points, 3-of-3 from beyond the arc) and Rashard Kelly (eight, career-high 11 rebounds). Shamet has connected on a 3-pointer in 24 consecutive games and made a freshman school-record 70 on the season, while Conner Frankamp has recorded at least one in 21 straight contests and leads the team with 71. A victory on Sunday by Wichita State, which is tied with Drake at 1,202 wins, will make it the winningest program in MVC history. |
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03-19-17 | Michigan v. Louisville -150 | Top | 73-69 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Senior center Mangok Mathiang matched his career high with 18 points to go along with five rebounds in the win against Jacksonville State. Sophomore forward Deng Adel scored 16 points in his first NCAA Tournament appearance after the Cardinals missed last season's tournament due to a postseason ban, while Quentin Snider added 16 points and five assists against the Gamecocks. Donovan Mitchell shrugged off a 3-for-15 performance from the field in his first tournament appearance by grabbing a career-high 10 rebounds as Louisville finished with 16 offensive boards. Louisville has won all three meetings with Michigan. |
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03-18-17 | Iowa State v. Purdue +1 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units A contrast in styles figures to make for an intriguing second-round NCAA Tournament Midwest Region matchup tonight when Iowa State takes on Purdue in Milwaukee. The fifth-seeded Cyclones feature a high-scoring four-guard attack while the fourth-seeded Boilermakers boast one of the nation’s most-imposing front lines, led by national player of the year-candidate Caleb Swanigan. The 6-9, 250-pound Swanigan totaled 16 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and a trio of blocked shots in Thursday’s 80-70 first-round win over Vermont while fellow forward Vince Edwards added a game-high 21 points - with 15 coming in the second half. Swanigan, Edwards and a 7-2 Isaac Haas combined for 25 of Purdue’s 38 rebounds as the Boilermakers finished a plus-10 on the glass and overwhelmed the Catamounts in the paint. |
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03-18-17 | Virginia +2 v. Florida | Top | 39-65 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Florida and Virginia meet Saturday in the second round of the NCAA Tournament’s East Region in Orlando, Fla. in a matchup of two power-five conference teams are excellent defensively. Both squads will look for better performances after the fourth-seeded Gators shook off a sluggish first half to pull away from East Tennessee State and the fifth-seeded Cavaliers actually relied on their offense to hold off UNC-Wilmington. Virginia, which leads the nation in scoring defense, shot 51 percent and received a career-high 23 points off the bench from Marial Shayok in the five-point victory. Florida, which came into the tournament averaging 9.5 turnovers (third in the nation), committed eight in the first half. |
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03-18-17 | St. Mary's v. Arizona -4 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Arizona forward Lauri Markkanen had 20 points and six rebounds in Thursday’s 100-82 win over No. 15 seed North Dakota as the Wildcats dominated the paint and shot 58 percent from the field. The 7-foot freshman averaged 20 points to lead Arizona to the Pac-12 tournament title but faces a tough matchup Saturday against Saint Mary’s 6-11 center Jock Landale, who averages 16.2 points along with 9.2 rebounds and recorded his 16th double-double of the season in the win over VCU. Landale will need to avoid foul trouble against a formidable Arizona frontline that includes 7-foot center Dusan Ristic, who had 12 points on 5-of-10 shooting against North Dakota. Arizona averages 76.9 points |
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03-18-17 | Middle Tennessee +2.5 v. Butler | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units A decade ago, Butler began establishing itself as one of the gold standards for mid-major basketball programs. Relative unknown Middle Tennessee, a 12th seed which is coming off a first-round upset in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, will be looking to take another step toward that end when the Blue Raiders tangle with the fourth-seeded Bulldogs in the second round of the South Region today in Milwaukee. Middle Tennessee, which led by as many as 17 in Thursday’s 81-72 triumph over fifth-seeded Minnesota, beat Michigan State in the first round last season as a No. 15 seed before falling to Syracuse. The Blue Raiders, who have already set a school record for wins (31), have won 20 of their last 21 games and have wins this season over SEC schools Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. |
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03-18-17 | Xavier v. Florida State -7 | Top | 91-66 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units The Seminoles need to cut down on the 16 turnovers they committed against Florida Gulf Coast, but their offensive potential was on full display. Star guard Dwayne Bacon (17.1 points) scored 25 points against the Eagles while freshman forward Jonathan Isaac (12.1, 7.7 rebounds) recorded 17, 10 rebounds, five assists, three blocks and two steals. The Seminoles also blocked nine shots and got double-digit scoring from point guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes (10.4 points, 4.9 assists) and wing Terance Mann (8.6, 4.7 rebounds), but they will face a tougher defensive opponent in the Musketeers. With a win, the Seminoles would tie the school record for wins set in 1971-72, when they advanced to the NCAA Tournament championship game. |
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03-18-17 | Wisconsin v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Villanova opened its title defense with a 20-point win against Mount St. Mary's in which the team overcame a dreadful start, missing its first eight shots and not taking a lead until 2:33 remained in the first half. The Wildcats likely can't afford another slow start against a Badgers team that topped Virginia Tech on Thursday behind Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes, two seniors with a pair of Final Fours on their resume. |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State -5.5 v. Dayton | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have a healthy respect for tough-minded, astutely-coached Dayton (7), boasting a topflight senior backcourt duo in 6-2 Scoochie Smith (13.5 ppg, 4.4 apg) and 6-5 Charles Cooke (16.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.0 apg). But, while the Flyers were 3-0-1 as an underdog this year, I still prefer to lay a fair price with Missouri Valley juggernaut Wichita State, which made it to the Final Four in 2013 under mastermind Gregg Marshall. The strong boarding Shockers (5th nationally in rebounding margin), spearheaded by remarkably-poised frosh PG Landry Shamet (11.3 ppg, 3.3 apg) and hard working 6-8 soph F Markis McDuffie (11.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), are riding a 15-game win skein, admittedly in a down year for the MVC. But proven motivator Marshall who defeated Arizona’s Sean Miller, the brother of UD head honcho Archie Miller in LY’s opening round (after Wichita beat Vandy in a play-in)—will use his team’s perceived low seeding as extra-incentive in Indianapolis. The Flyers are not exactly entering the Big Dance exuding confidence, having been knocked off as a No. 1 seed in the first round of the A-10 tourney by Davidson. Undeterred from laying around 3 hoops, since the d-e-e-e-p Shockers have won by more than 6 points in 29 of their 30 victories TY! |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island +1 v. Creighton | 84-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It took a while for Rhody (11) to hit stride. But the Rams enter the Dance as one of the nation’s hottest teams after storming thru the A-10 Tourney to avoid sweating out an at-large bid, extending their late-season surge to eight victories in a row...all in must-win mode. Which didn’t surprise a lot of regional observers, who are quick to remind that the Rams were picked in the Top 25 in some preseason polls. With at least three players (F Hassan Martin, G Jared Terrell, and F Kuran Iverson) who are going to be paid to play in the near future, Rhody is not to be overlooked. We can, however, do just that with a Creighton (6) side that has been floundering ever since key PG Mo Watson, Jr., the nation’s leading assist man (8.5 pg) midway thru the season, went down with a knee injury in mid-January. Since then, the Bluejays are 7-8 SU, using a committee approach at the point, including frosh Davion Mintz, keeping the offense functional at times, but nowhere near as efficient as it was when Watson was controlling traffic (Creighton was 18-1 SU when Watson went down). Over the past six weeks, the Rams have appeared to be the better team, and they can continue their recent momentum into the second round. |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon -14.5 | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There could have been worse opening-round matchups for Oregon (2) than go-go Iona (14), once again sporting an 80 ppg offense that only knows how to play at fast speed. Though the Gaels go uptempo a bit differently these days, with their first option being 6-8 PF Jordan Washington (17.9 ppg) on the blocks before a squadron of bombardiers, led by Fordham transfer G Jon Severe, lets fly from long range, where the Gaels hit at a 40% clip. Even though Dana Altman prefers a more moderate tempo and execution in halfcourt sets for this Duck edition, small-ball teams such as Iona that also don’t feature much defense (the Gaels rank 272nd in points allowed) can play right into Oregon’s wheelhouse, allowing the various Webfoot weapons such as 6-7 wing Dillon Brooks (16 ppg) to become quickly involved offensively. And when the traffic lanes open up, 6-2 Ducks’ frosh facilitator Payton Pritchard can gladly provide service to a variety of options. We’ll eventually see how UO is impacted by the loss of key 6-10 F Chris Boucher (out with a knee injury), but his absence shouldn’t hurt much vs. this smaller Metro-Atlantic rep. |
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03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arkansas (8) excited to be back in the Big Dance after its 16-16 season of 2015-16. And while the offensive-minded Razorbacks got on a hot streak down the stretch prior to their 82-67 blowout loss to Kentucky in the SEC title game, believe U of A makes an early exit in Greenville. Have faith that tough-minded, defensive-oriented Seton Hall (9), ranking 38th nationally in defensive efficiency, is primed to advance after its 66-52 setback to Gonzaga in the first round last season. The percolating Pirates nearly upset mighty Villanova in their spread-covering 55-53 loss to the Wildcats in the semifinals of the Big East tourney over the weekend. The Hall is benefiting from strong bench play provided by blossoming 6-2 frosh G Myles Powell (10.5 ppg). And the Pirates own the game’s most versatile performer in 6-4 jr. G Khadeem Carrington (17.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.3 apg), who works well in tandem with industrious 6-2 sr. G Madison Jones (5.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg). Plus, SH’s double-double machine, 6-10 jr. Angel Delgado (15.7 ppg, 13.1 rpg to lead the country) figures to overshadow the Razorbacks’ somewhaterratic 6-10 jr. F Moses Kingsley (12.0 ppg, 7.8), who was M.I.A. in the SEC title game. |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Michigan | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm testing a couple theories...and gulping as I do it...such is my respect for Michigan (7) and shrewd HC John Beilein, one of my favorites and one with plenty of successes and spread covers in post seasons past. But I wonder how much energy Michigan had to use in winning four games in as many days at last week’s Big Ten Tourney in Washington after the Wolverines’ plane skidded off the runway as the team initially prepared to leave for D.C. Meanwhile, OSU (10), with its at-large bid secured, was not too bothered by an early exit, courtesy Iowa State, in the Big 12 Tourney, allowing the Cowboys some extra rest after a recent 10-1 SU surge that put Oklahoma State in position to earn a call from the Selection Committee. That OSU also made its move in the rugged Big 12 (tougher, we believe, than this year’s Big Ten), winning five times on the road in that treacherous loop, and that first-year HC Brad Underwood is already a proven March commodity by virtue of his magic woven last year at SF Austin, gives the Cowboys plenty of their own credentials. Fundamentals don’t appear to provide an edge either way, with both teams generating most of their offense from the backcourt (the Derrick Walton, Jr.-Jawun Evans matchup should be a doozy). I will side with a few factors I believe favor dangerous OSU in what might be one of the better games of the opening round. |
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03-16-17 | Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1 | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these sides were close to Big Dance bids, CSF losing a bitter OT battle in the Big West semis when a last-second UC Davis trey attempt missed the mark so badly that it bounced awkwardly into the unsuspecting hands of an Aggie (who barely beat the buzzer on a game-winning lay-in), and Weber State blowing an 11-point lead in the late going of the Big Sky finale and losing in OT vs. North Dakota. The Titans, however, get home edge in the “Riley Wallace Classic” of the CIT. And homecourt meant something down the stretch, as Fullerton has won six straight at Titan Gym, all part of a nice late-season turnaround in which Dedrqiue Taylor’s team won 9 and covered 10 of its last 12 games. CSF also might get back the services of key frosh F Jackson Rowe (10 ppg; foot), in whose absence the Titans still managed to stay afloat the last couple of weeks. The Wildcats lean heavily on sr. G Jeremy Senglin (21 ppg), but the Weber offense bogs down when Senglin goes cold. The deep Titan backcourt, led by sr. Tre Coggins (18 ppg), will relish the chance to out-duel Senglin. |
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03-16-17 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Wisconsin | 74-84 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Conference comparisons are often a tricky gauge in the Dance. But if assuming that the ACC was a couple of notches above this season’s Big Ten (and I do), it makes the case for VPI (9) a bit more convincing against Wisconsin (8). While the Badgers have plenty of experience on their roster from recent deep runs in the Dance, they also didn’t face often face as much quickness as Buzz Williams can put on the floor with his Hokies. And while VPI lost 6 of 10 in one particularly difficult January-February stretch, the Badgers also slumped in February (once losing five of six), and didn’t have an ACC slate to blame, before finally steadying late. The Hokies will come at Wiscy from lots of different angles, as their two best players (G Seth Allen, the ACC Sixth Man of the Year, and F Zach LeDay) come off of the bench, while VPI ranks among the nation’s leaders in points per possession and effective FG %, not to mention its 41% accuracy on 3-balls ranking 10th nationally. The Hokies also enter the Dance on a 9-1 spread uptick, are 10-4 as a dog this season, and were good enough to go into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan...the same Wolverine team that just whipped the Badgers to win the Big Ten Tourney |
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03-16-17 | Florida Gulf Coast +12 v. Florida State | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A little state pride is at stake as Florida State (3) from Tallahassee in the north of returns to the NCAA field for the first time since 2012, while Florida Gulf Coast (14) from Fort Myers in the southwest is making its third appearance in the last five years. It should be noted that the Eagles (who still brand their program as “Dunk City”), have advanced in each of their two previous appearances, beating Georgetown and San Diego State in 2013 under Andy Enfield, then demolishing Fairleigh Dickinson 96-65 in a First Four game LY under long-time Kansas asst. Joe Dooley before falling 83-67 to eventual finalist North Carolina. So FGCU can play more than just a little bit. The issue in this matchup for the Eagles is what the do with the Seminoles’ superior size, as FSU starts 6-10 freshman Jonathan Issac and 7-1 sr. Michael Ojo, and can bring 7-4 soph project Christ Koumadje off the bench. Not to mention freshman star Dwayne Bacon (16.9 ppg), who plays bigger than his 6-7. But the athletic Eagles, with their four DD scorers and 10-man rotation (three 6-8 or better) are used to facing bigger teams. FGCU played at Florida, Baylor, and Michigan State early in the season, losing by 21, 9 and 1, respectively. And “Dunk City” reached its stride near Christmas, winning 19 of its last 21 games, including three double-digit victories to capture the Atlantic Sun tournament. FGCU (35%) might not hit its triples as often as in the past, but the Eagles (26-7 SU) can dunk, with an overall margin of victory of 10.6 ppg. Enough to look for FGCU to play the pest role once more time. |
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03-16-17 | St. Peter's +1 v. Albany NY | 59-55 | Win | 100 | 50 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Saint Peter’s has had almost two weeks to stew about its exit (as the second seed) in the Metro-Atlantic Tourney vs. Iona, Albany might still be thinking about one that got away in last Saturday’s A-East finale vs. favored Vermont, with the Great Danes blowing a double-digit lead in an eventual 56-53 loss. Remember, the Peacocks were the talk of their league late in the season, covering ten times in one 11-game stretch and winning their last four SU as a visitor, paced by a nasty “D” that ranked among the nation’s leaders in scoring defense (61.1 ppg, ranking 12th) and allowing only 41.1% from the floor, with punishing 6-8 sr. PF Quadir Welton (12.1 ppg) proving a viable offensive force on the blocks. |
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03-16-17 | Middle Tennessee -1 v. Minnesota | 81-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kudos to 4th-year HC Richard Pitino of Minnesota (5) for leading his resurgent Gophers back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2013 (Tubby Smith’s final season in Minneapolis) after going a miserable 8-23 last season. But UM suffered a serious hit when team captain sr. G Akeem Springs (9.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg) was recently lost for the season with an Achilles injury. So, will side with veteran MTS (12), which endured only one blemish in C-USA play and is considered a superior overall squad than the one that stunned Michigan State in the Round of 64 last year. The Blue Raiders have been strengthened by the addition of 6-8 sr. Arkansas transfer, F JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 54.1% FGs), who along with frontline mate 6-8 Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 52.5% FGs) stand a good chance of getting UM’s foul-prone 6-10 jr. C Reggie Lynch (3.5 bpg) in early “whistle trouble.” Plus, burly 6-2, 220-lb. jr. MTS G Giddy Potts (15.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg) will more than neutralize the Gophers’ go-to G Nate Mason (15.5 ppg, 5.1 apg). Undervalued Blue Raiders climb to 23-10-1 vs. the line TY! |
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03-15-17 | Texas-Arlington +5.5 v. BYU | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Veteran, athletic UT Arlington, which had its eye on a Big Dance invitation, was unexpectedly knocked out of the Sun Belt tourney semifinals by underdog Texas State. But will still lend support to the hard-to-beat Mavericks, who posted a 4-1 spread mark as a visiting underdog TY, including upset wins at Texas and Saint Mary’s in the preconference. BYU’s main frontline weapon, 6-10 F Eric Mika, won’t easily “get off” vs. UTA’s aggressive 6-8 sr. F Jorge Bilbao. And the Cougs will have difficulty coping with the Mavs’ dynamic 6-7 jr. Kevin Hervey (17.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg), who wants redemption for his subpar effort vs. the Bobcats, when he hit only 4 of 12 from the field and had 3 TOs. Defensively-vulnerable BYU (73.3 ppg) has registered a poor 0-4-1 spread mark its last 5 in Provo |
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03-15-17 | USC -2.5 v. Providence | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Interesting that these two get matched up early again as they did in a first round clash last year, when Southern Cal (11) blew a late lead and Providence (11) stole a 70-69 decision in Raleigh. While the Trojans look to have been the last team to make the field of 68, they have the capacity to win a few games in the Dance, and the revenge angle intrigues. Especially since this Friar edition, though rallying admirably down the stretch to make the field, lacks the firepower of LY’s version that featured the potent combo of G Kris Dunn (now NBA T-wolves) and F Ben Bentil. Curiously, SC lost more games after the return from injury of versatile 6-10 weapon Bennie Boatwright (14.6 ppg), but Andy Enfield’s bunch can force tempo and has the ability to rain 3s, especially Gs Elijah Stewart and Jordan McLaughlin (both near 40% triples). The battle at the point between McLaughlin and Providence counterpart Kyron Cartwright will be key, but if a similar SC almost beat a more star-studded Friars last season, the Trojans can get over the hump this time. |
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03-15-17 | Fresno State +10.5 v. TCU | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units TCU’s first-year HC Jamie Dixon deserves props for quickly turning around the Horned Frog program. And while TCU represents the superior conference in this pairing, believe the oddsmakers are failing to give sufficient respect to balanced (4 starters who are DD scorers), road-proven Fresno State, which recorded a notable 8-2 underdog mark TY as a visitor (pulled off upsets at Nevada, San Diego State & Boise State) along with a 6-1 spread record in the preconference, including a near upset at Marquette in early December. The Bulldogs’ well-organized attack, led by hard-to-guard 6-6 G Jaren Hopkins (Colorado transfer), should get plenty of open looks vs. an inviting Horned Frog defense permitting 44.5% from the field (209th nationally). Somewhat overvalued TCU was a weak 5-12 its last 17 vs. the spread. |
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03-15-17 | Green Bay v. UMKC | 82-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s a “Packers vs. Chiefs” rematch, not of Super Bowl I, but rather the Nov. 20 battle at the Bowling Green Tourney. Now, the venue shifts to the historic KC Municipal Auditorium (the home of several memorable Final Fours in its heyday), where host UMKC hops in, looking to atone for that earlier 95-77 loss, when Green Bay hit 53% from the floor and had five DD scorers, led by sr. G Charles Cooper, who had 17. Although they didn’t finish their season on an uptick, the go-go Fighting Phoenix still appear to have too much firepower for the Roos, who have been fighting with one hand (or one leg, given they’re the Kangaroos) tied behind them ever since LY’s leading scorer, G Martez Harrison (17 ppg), left the team earlier in the season. |
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03-15-17 | Akron +8 v. Houston | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, Akron naturally is “bummed” it’s not going dancing following its 70-65 upset loss to Kent State in the MAC tourney title game. But the Zips’ savvy 13th-year HC Keith Dambrot will have his squad ready to bring its “A” game, as he did in a similar situation a year ago. In 2016, Akron suffered a taut 64-61 loss to Buffalo in the conference championship, but then gave favored Ohio State a tough tussle in Columbus in a 72-63 OT defeat in the first round of the NIT. The Zips own the No. 1 big man on this floor in 6-10, 295- lb. sr. C Isaiah Johnson, who was selected the MAC Player of the Year. The G-oriented Cougs, featuring 6-2 Rob Gray, Jr. (20.3 ppg), tailed off down the stretch, going just 1-5 their last 6 vs. the spread. U of A capable of quickly narrowing a deficit, canning 10.2 triples pg (7th nationally) at 37.4%. |
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03-15-17 | Belmont +7 v. Georgia | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Uptempo, good-shooting Belmont (77.4 ppg; 47.3% from the field; drills10 triples pg), under the guidance of 18th-year HC Rick Byrd, should be fully re-charged after playing its last game back on March 3. So points worth considering with the experienced Bruins, who won 18 of their last 20 games. Belmont, which hung tough at Rhode Island and was fairly combative at Vandy and vs. Florida (game played in Tampa) this year, should keep it close in Athens, where Georgia is a “costly” 2-9 as chalk in 2016-17. The Dawgs’ primary big, 6-8 jr. F Yante Maten, will have no picnic down low vs. the Bruins’ tough defender, 6-8 F Amanze Egekeze (11.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg). Meanwhile, Belmont’s electric 6-7 sr. F Evan Bradds (20.6 ppg; 63% FGs; 61 assists) can score in a variety of ways or pass out of a double-team. Take. |
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03-14-17 | Kansas State v. Wake Forest +2 | 95-88 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First meeting. KSU (11) owns more Big Dance experience, having gone to the NCAA tourney in 3 of the past 5 campaigns. However, prefer rapidly-maturing, high-octane Wake Forest (11), averaging 82.7 ppg under third-year HC Danny Manning, who’s quite familiar with the Wildcats, having been a star at rival Kansas during his illustrious college career. KSU’s 3-G attack will have trouble coping with the Deacons’ budding NBA prospect, 6-10 soph John Collins (19.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg), while K-State’s smallish 6-0 soph G Kamau Stokes will be hard-pressed to bother WF’s rangy, 6-3 soph backcourt duo of Keyshawn Woods (12.8 ppg, 3.5 apg) and/or Byrant Crawford (15.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, 1.9 spg). Manning’s crew, representing the nation’s premier hoop league, learned how to “finish” down the stretch, as evidenced by its impressive 88-81 home upset over L’Ville and an 89-84 roadwin at Virginia Tech in early March. Plus, the resilient Deacons are a solid 8-2 vs. the spread following a SU loss this term. |
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03-14-17 | Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units According to my rankings, this clash figures as a pick ‘em game. So I recommend grabbing 3 points or so with hard-nosed, defensively-fierce GT (yielding 66.8 ppg; 39.8% from the field; 15th nationally), which went 9-5 vs the spread at home. Weak-traveling Indiana, which was only 2-8 SU as a visitor TY (0-4 as traveling chalk!), yielded a whopping 79 ppg away from Bloomington. The fast-paced Hoosiers will be discouraged to consistently drive in the lane vs. the Yellow Jackets’ shotswatting fiend, 6-10 jr. C Ben Lammers (14.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg), who ranks third nationally in bpg (3.25). IU continues to miss the services of injured 6-8 soph forward OG Anunoby, while GT’s highly-decorated 6-4 frosh G Josh Okogie (15.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is eager to out-duel Hoosier star G James Blackmon Jr. |
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03-14-17 | College of Charleston v. Colorado State -4.5 | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While both sorrowful squads lost in their conference title games, it might a be more difficult for Charleston to rebound while making its longest road trip of the season, to Fort Collins. The soft-boarding Cougars (-1.2 rebound margin) will get precious few second chance opportunities vs. CSU’s springy 6-8 sr. F Emmanuel Omogbo, who was tied for 7th nationally with 20 double-doubles. The depth-shy Rams own the No. 1 “money” performer in this one in dazzling 6-4 sr. G Gian Clavell (20.3 ppg), who should boost his profitable squad to a noteworthy 19-10 pointspread mark after this anticipated victory. The defensively-improved Rams can afford to collapse in the paint area, since Charleston connects on only 6.1 triples pg (291st nationally) at just 33.0% (271st). |
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03-14-17 | Oakland +11 v. Clemson | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No question, Clemson was a “tough out” in the talent-rich ACC in 2016-17. Still, however, reluctant to lay DDs to dangerous, high-octane Horizon League rep Oakland (79.4 ppg), which is well-equipped to (College Forecast Continued on next page) trade most of the way. The Golden Grizzlies showed virtually no drop-off away from home (80 ppg at home, 75 away; yielded 71 ppg both home & away), going 9-2 SU as a visitor. Moreover, Oakland’s super-steady 6-7 jr. F Jalen Hayes (16.2 ppg, 8.9 rpg) can go toe- to-toe with the Tigers’ primary weapon, 6-7 sr. F Jaron Blossomgame. Plus, CU won’t easily find a groove on the attack end vs. the aggressive Grizzlies, who rank in the top 20 nationally in both blocks (5.2 pg) and steals (8.1 pg). |
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03-14-17 | Ole Miss v. Monmouth -1.5 | 91-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In what shapes up as a wide-open, fastpaced affair, I prefer to lay a small number with high-powered MAAC rep Monmouth (81.2 ppg), which has compiled an impressive 55-14 SU mark over the last 1+seasons, including upsets over UCLA, Notre Dame, Southern Cal (in 2015-16) and Memphis, plus a near-miss in its 70-69 OT loss at South Carolina this season. The Hawks’ 6-10 sr. C Chris Brady (9.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg; 57 blocks) can provide some resistence for Ole Miss’s main frontliner 6-9 sr. F Sebastian Saiz, while lethal Monmouth Gs 5-8 sr. Justin Robinson, even without injured backcourt mate Micah Seaborn, will do plenty of business vs. a permissive Rebel defense, permitting 77 ppg away. Ole Miss’ sole marquee triumph as a visitor came in its 81-74 upset at Vandy in early February |
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03-14-17 | Valparaiso v. Illinois -8.5 | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Though Illinois just fired 5th-year HC John Groce (asst. Jamall Walker is the interim HC), I still prefer to lay single digits vs. shorthanded Valpo, missing injured 6-9 NBA prospect Alec Peters (23 ppg; 8th nationally). Illini 6-6 sr. G Malcolm Hill (16.8 ppg, 3.0 apg) will be eager to atone for a season-worst 1 of 8 from the field in his team’s unsightly 75-55 setback vs. Michigan in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney. Prior to the aforementioned dismissal of its HC, Illinois had played a bit better down the stretch, covering its final two home games in victories over Northwestern & Michigan State. Note that Illini sr. G Tracy Abrams had his best scoring performance (23, on 9 of 12 from the field vs. the Wolverines) since Dec. 10. |
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03-14-17 | Mount Saint Mary's +1.5 v. New Orleans | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Welcome back to UNO (16), which almost eliminated hoops completely a few years ago when it dropped levels, and hasn’t appeared in a Dance since the days Tim Floyd was coaching the Privateers in the early ‘90s. Still, might slightly prefer the Mount (16), whose 19-15 SU mark was distorted by a brutal non-conference slate that began season with numerous “paydays” in nine-game road stretch to start the campaign. But the Mountaineers were rarely embarrassed vs. a string of Dance qualifers from power leagues, and emergence of smallish Gs Elijah Long and Josh Robinson (both 40% beyond arc) provided a sharper edge to the attack as the Mount drew clear in the Northeast. Not sure UNO takes advantage of small Mountie perimeter, and Privateers rely very heavily upon 6-5 sr. F Erik Thomas (19.5 ppg). |
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03-10-17 | Notre Dame +2.5 v. Florida State | 77-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Fighting Irish may be the hottest team in the conference, having won six of their last seven in the regular season and opening tourney play by topping Virginia 71-58 on Thursday. Junior forward Bonzie Colson notched his ACC-leading 19th double-double with 21 points and 10 rebounds as Notre Dame reached the semifinals for the third straight season. |
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03-10-17 | Kansas State +7 v. West Virginia | 50-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Brown, a 6-3 sophomore, was spectacular in Thursday night's upset of Baylor, connecting on all four of his 3-pointers and sinking 9-of-13 free throws, including 5-of-6 in the final 31 seconds to help seal the victory. His four-point play with 9:34 left triggered a 7-1 run that built the Wildcats' lead to 47-38, and Baylor never got closer than four points the rest of the way. Senior forward D.J. Johnson also scored in double figures (13) and grabbed a team-high seven rebounds to go along with two steals and two blocks while sophomore guard Kamau Stokes added nine points and five assists. Kansas State is 14-0 when holding an opponent to 65 points or fewer. |
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03-10-17 | Duke +4.5 v. North Carolina | 93-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Just six days after they closed out the regular season against one another, Duke and North Carolina will meet for the 245th time in their storied rivalry Friday in the semifinals of the ACC tournament in Brooklyn, N.Y. The fifth-seeded Blue Devils held on to top Louisville 80-77 in the quarterfinals Thursday afternoon, their second win in the tourney after finishing the ACC slate with a 90-83 loss at North Carolina. This marks the first meeting between the programs in the postseason since 2011, when Duke won 75-58 to claim its 19th ACC tourney crown. |
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03-10-17 | Vanderbilt +6.5 v. Florida | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Vanderbilt has defeated No. 13 Florida twice this season and might need to do it a third time to solidify a berth in the NCAA Tournament. The seventh-seeded Commodores are on the bubble and will be in must-win mode when they square off against the second-seeded Gators in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament at Nashville, Tenn. today |
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03-10-17 | Indiana +4 v. Wisconsin | 60-70 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Indiana defied its own history in the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday when it knocked off a higher-seeded team for only the fourth time in the 20-year history of the event. The 10th-seeded Hoosiers attempt to pull off another seemingly improbable task one day later when they square off against No. 2 seed Wisconsin in the quarterfinals Friday in Washington, D.C. Indiana showed no signs of the struggles that led it to drop eight of its final 11 regular-season contests during its second-round 95-73 rout of seventh-seeded Iowa, catching fire beyond the arc after halftime (6-of-8) en route to setting school tournament records with 12 3-pointers and in 3-point percentage (60.0). The Hoosiers improved to 3-10 in the Big Ten toiurney over the last 10 years as a result. |
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03-10-17 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Minnesota | 58-63 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating; 4 Units The Spartans ended a two-game slide with an emphatic 78-51 victory against 13th-seeded Penn State in Thursday's second round. The Spartans, who are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, can cement their 20th straight appearance in the Big Dance by beating Minnesota for the third time in a row after sweeping the season series. Michigan State advanced to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals in each of the last six years while winning it three times during that span, and hopes to live up to its reputation of peaking in March with another deep run. |
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03-10-17 | Georgia +10.5 v. Kentucky | 60-71 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Wildcats swept the regular-season series, winning 90-81 in overtime at home and 82-77 at Georgia, but the Bulldogs led in the final minute of regulation in both games. The Bulldogs played most of the second match up without big man Yante Maten, who injured his knee in the first two minutes and only returned to the lineup Thursday, scoring 12 points and grabbing five rebounds in 26 minutes off the bench. |
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03-09-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame +5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Third-seeded Notre Dame finished the regular season with six wins in seven games and hopes to ride that momentum when it takes on sixth seed Virginia in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament Thursday in Brooklyn, N.Y. The 16th-ranked Fighting Irish scored at least 80 points in five of six contests before losing 71-64 on Saturday at Louisville. Notre Dame is 4-2 in ACC tournament play, including winning the championship in 2015. |
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03-09-17 | Creighton v. Providence +2.5 | 70-58 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units In a conference featuring the defending national champion and seven 19-win-plus teams among its 10 members, no one is hotter than Providence, which brings a six-game win streak into the Big East tournament. The third-seeded Friars will try to pad their roll Thursday night when they take on sixth-seeded Creighton in the quarterfinals at New York’s famed Madison Square Garden. Following a Feb. 8 road loss at Seton Hall, Providence had dropped four of five and was languishing with a 4-8 Big East record. But the Friars have not lost since, including wins over Butler (71-65), Xavier (75-63) and Creighton (68-66), and bring much momentum to the Big Apple. |
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03-09-17 | Indiana v. Iowa +2 | Top | 95-73 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units A roster laden with seven freshmen was supposed to be Iowa's major impediment from returning to the NCAA Tournament, and the team appeared to have little hope of making a fourth straight Big Dance until it ended the regular season by winning four in a row, including victories over then-ranked Maryland and No. 23 Wisconsin. The run began on Feb. 21 when the Hawkeyes ended a three-game losing streak with a 96-90 home triumph over Indiana behind 35 points from Big Ten leading scorer Peter Jok. The Hoosiers spent the bulk of the first half of the season ranked inside the top 10 - rising as high as No. 5 - before a season-ending injury to OG Anunoby and a three-game absence from leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. contributed to a 3-8 finish to the regular season. |
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03-09-17 | Duke +3 v. Louisville | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Duke had lost three of four before opening the tournament with a 79-72 win over Clemson in the second round Wednesday, riding three 20-point scorers. ACC first-team selection Luke Kennard and freshmen Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson were the three to reach 20 points in Wednesday's win and senior forward Amile Jefferson recorded his eighth double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds. Louisville is 0-1 in ACC tournament play, having lost in the quarterfinal to North Carolina two seasons ago in its debut campaign in the conference. |
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03-09-17 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +1 | 83-92 | Win | 102 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Iowa State also enters off a loss - 87-76 on Friday at West Virginia - despite 22 points and six 3-pointers from Nazareth Mitrou-Long as well as 17 points from Morris and Deonte Burton. The Cyclones have owned the series of late, winning nine straight contests. Cyclones' Monte Morris joined Evans on the All-Big 12 first team, averaging 16.2 points while sporting a NCAA-best 6.2 assist-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-08-17 | Wake Forest -135 v. Virginia Tech | 90-99 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Four days after Wake Forest visited Virginia Tech and walked away with a crucial win, the Demon Deacons seek a repeat performance when they take on the Hokies in the second round of the ACC tournament today in Brooklyn, N.Y. Wake Forest rallied for an 89-84 victory in the regular-season finale in Blacksburg, Va. on Saturday in a triumph that many felt gave Danny Manning's team a good shot at an at-large bid in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Tuesday's 92-78 win over Boston College in the first round only helped the cause, as the 10th-seeded Demon Deacons are riding a season-high four-game winning streak. |
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03-08-17 | Oklahoma v. TCU -125 | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units TCU spent most of the first part of the season making a case for the NCAA Tournament and the last month ruining its strong start, so perhaps it is appropriate it faces the team that put the last nail in its coffin. The eighth-seeded Horned Frogs look to halt a long losing streak in the first round of the Big 12 tournament today in Kansas City, Mo., when it faces No. 9 seed Oklahoma for the second time in less than a week with a quarterfinal date versus top-ranked Kansas awaiting the winner. TCU, which posted six conference wins for the first time since joining the Big 12 in 2012-13, was gaining support for an NCAA Tournament bid until dropping its final seven regular-season games. Oklahoma, which lost leading scorer Jordan Woodard (14.6 points, team-high 38 3-pointers) for the season with a knee injury Feb. 11. |
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03-08-17 | Penn State -125 v. Nebraska | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units No. 12 Nebraska looks to bounce back from its worst home loss in program history when it opens the Big Ten Tournament against 13th-seeded Penn State in Washington, D.C. today. The Cornhuskers started conference play with three straight wins for the first time in over 40 years but went 3-12 the rest of the way, including a 93-57 setback to Michigan in the regular-season finale, to finish below .500 for the third consecutive year. |
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03-08-17 | Stanford v. Arizona State +4.5 | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona State aims for its third win of the season over Stanford today when the teams meet in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. The eighth-seeded Sun Devils beat ninth-seeded Stanford 98-93 in Palo Alto to start the league season on Dec. 30 before posting a come-from-behind 75-69 win on Feb. 11 in Tempe. The Sun Devils shot 44.6 percent from 3-point range in the two games against Stanford and figure to rely on the shot again Wednesday against a Cardinal team that is next-to-last in the league in defending 3-pointers. |
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03-08-17 | Clemson +7 v. Duke | 72-79 | Push | 0 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fifth-seeded Duke begins its quest for a record 20th ACC tournament title after an eventful regular season when it takes on 12th seed Clemson in a second-round game today at Brooklyn, N.Y. The 14th-ranked Blue Devils lost three - all on the road - of their final four games while hampered by some nagging injuries and coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters he is hoping they will be at their best in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. For Duke to become the first team to win four games en route to the ACC tournament title, it must first knock off a Clemson team that has been in almost every league game this season despite losing nine times by six points or fewer. |
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03-07-17 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech +2 | 61-59 | Push | 0 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Georgia Tech was picked to be 14th in the 15-team ACC entering the season, and some observers thought it would be challenged to win more than a couple of conference games, but the team opens the ACC tournament today at Brooklyn, N.Y. with an outside shot to reach the NCAA Tournament. The 11th-seeded Yellow Jackets meet 14th-seeded Pittsburgh in the tournament opener after a 17-win regular season that featured three upsets of ranked teams. One of GT's victories down the stretch was a 61-52 triumph over the Panthers on Feb. 28 in Atlanta, as Pittsburgh enters the conference tournament on a four-game losing streak. |
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03-07-17 | Boston College +13 v. Wake Forest | 78-92 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wake Forest comes into this one having lost three straight in the ACC tournament since a win over Notre Dame in the first round in 2014. In addition Wake Forest is 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as a favorite, and 8-22-2 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win. |
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03-05-17 | Michigan -5 v. Nebraska | 93-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With UM probably needing one more win to feel comfy about it NCAA Tourney at-large chances, suggest laying several hoops vs. stagnating, inside-oriented Nebraska (converting only 5.8 triples pg; 303rd nationally), which is only 2-5 SU its last 7 in Big Ten home games. Look for high-impact efforts from the Wolverines’ potent inside-outside duo of evolving 6-10 soph F Moritz Wagner & mettle-tested 6-4 sr. G Derrick Walton Jr., who combined for only 7 of 20 from the field in their exasperating, last-second 67-65 setback at Northwestern on Wednesday. The “hot seat” under Huskers’ beleaguered HC Tim Miles increases in temperature following another defeat in Lincoln. |
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03-05-17 | Minnesota +8 v. Wisconsin | 49-66 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Perhaps not properly warned, Wiscy had all it could handle from Minnesota back at the Barn back on Jan. 21, as the Badgers barely escaped with an OT win. But developments since then (8 straight wins, 7-1 vs. the number) suggest the Gophers are hardly out of their depth, as Richard Pitino’s bunch has become the hottest Big Ten entry in recent weeks. The Gophers surely have sewn up a Big Dance bid. Meanwhile, Wiscy has been coughing and wheezing in recent weeks and had lost 4 of 5 entering Thursday’s game vs. Iowa, likely kicking away the Big Ten reg.-season crown and perhaps a chance at the desired Milwaukee sub-regional. The steadying influence of several vets in Pitino’s lineup has allowed touted 6-8 frosh wing Amir Coffey (12.2 ppg) to develop into a valued contributor without too much added pressure. |
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03-05-17 | Cincinnati -6.5 v. Connecticut | 67-47 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consistently-underperforming, offensively-pedestrian UConn (67.3 ppg; only 43.2% from the field) will probably be sitting home for the postseason (unless it miraculously wins the AAC tourney) following its listless 66-62 defeat at marginal East Carolina on Wednesday. Therefore have no problem laying several hoops with the defensively-fierce Bearcats (61.1 ppg; 38.2% FGs), who still haven’t forgotten their painful 4-OT loss to the Huskies in LY’s conference tourney. Cincy’s agile 6-9 jr. F Kyle Washington (NC State transfer; 13.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg) will likely get UConn’s overaggressive 7-0 jr. C Amida Brimah in early foul trouble, while the Huskies’ funkridden 6-4 sr. G Rodney Purvis (10 of 41 from the field over the last 3 tilts) fails to shine on senior night. |
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03-04-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -11.5 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UNLV’s last gasp for the season probably came in its ugly midweek win over Utah State. Before that, however, the Rebs had lost nine in a row in what has already been the worst season in school history. Meanwhile, Fresno has been beating better UNLV teams in recent seasons. And the recent Bulldog surge has included a lot more than one game, with four wins and covers on the trot, including impressive successes on the MW road last week at San Diego State and Boise. Coach Rodney Terry is thanking his lucky stars that 6-6 Colorado transfer wing Jaron Hopkins (who has failed to score DDs just once in his last 12 games, and that was when saddled by serious foul issues Feb. 22 vs. the Aztecs) landed in his lap. Fresno will be properly focused for senior night at the Save-Mart Center. |
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03-04-17 | Boise State -3.5 v. Air Force | 98-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since BSU is seeking to stay ahead of Fresno State for 3rd place in the MW standings, willing to lay short price vs. sliding, defensively-yielding AF (74.3 ppg, 45.2% FGs; 244th nationally), which has dropped 8 of its past 9 tilts, with its only W coming vs. league co-cellardweller UNLV. No doubt the Broncos’ highly-effective 6-7 jr. G Chandler Hutchinson (17.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg) will be out for some serious redemption after canning a paltry 2 of 6 from the field to go along with six TOs in his squad’s 74-67 loss at Fresno State on Tuesday. Note that BSU has dropped back-to-back games only once since Nov. 18th. |
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03-04-17 | Charlotte v. UTEP -6 | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No reason to jump off the UTEP gravy train that has been tracking the rising Dow Jones Industrial Average in an 11-game cover streak heading into Thursday’s game vs. ODU. The Miners finally began to understand Tim Floyd’s various defensive schemes at midseason, and UTEP Gs Dominic Artis (16.6 ppg) & Omega Harris (15.3 ppg) have emerged as arguably C-USA’s top backcourt tandem. Charlotte is not going anywhere and has been almost as cold lately (2-6 SU last 8, 2-7 vs. line last 9 before UTSA on Thursday) as the Miners have been hot. |
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03-04-17 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia -12 | 42-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Big-Dance bound Virginia (currently projected as a No. 4 seed) jacked-up to avenge its OT loss at Pitt back on Jan. 4, will “lay it” vs. still-unbalanced, chemistry-poor Pitt squad, which has “problems with coachability,” says 1st-year HC Gene Stallings. Meanwhile, the Cav offense has gotten a needed offensive spark from highly-regarded 6-3 frosh G Kyle Guy (chosen Indiana’s Mr. Basketball as a senior prepster in Indianapolis), who has taken some pressure off do-everything sr. G London Perrantes. UVA’s smothering, pack-line defense (allowing a nation’s-stingiest 56.3 ppg) will perform with extra fervor after allowing a season-high 88 points in that earlier defeat. |
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03-03-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -10 | 80-88 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units CMU’s games have turned into a sideshow for national top scorer G Marcus Keene (29.4 ppg) and back court gunnery mate Braylon Rayson (20.7 ppg), whose green lights to shoot and their nearly 20 triple attempts pg between them have devolved Chippewa outings into near Harlem Globetrotter-like comedy. CMU (345th in the nation in defense) has now lost and failed to cover six in a row, with a Washington Generals-like refusal to offer resistance on the stop end being a main contributor to recent embarrassing efforts like Tuesday’s 109-81 home loss to Eastern Michigan. Meanwhile, WMU has been the MAC equivalent of Oklahoma State, surging toward the conference tourney at the “Q” with seven wins and covers in a row since a close Feb. 3 loss to the Chips...back when CMU was playing just a little defense and seemed more concerned about winning the game than padding the stats of its top scorers. |
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03-03-17 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State -5 | 82-87 | Push | 0 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BSU highly-charged to stay tied atop the MAC West (with Western Michigan) and notch its 20th victory of the campaign. So will gladly lay a handful of points vs. middling, sliding Northern Illinois, which is only 1-6 its last 7 vs. the spread, with its only cover vs. West doormat Central Michigan. Also, look for inspired efforts from the Cards’ vet duo of 6-6 F Franko House (13.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg) & 6-6 wing Ryan Webber (9.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg), who’ll be pumped for crowd-pleasing showings on Senior Night. NIU certainly not built to narrow any expected deficit, hitting only 5.0 triples pg (335th nationally) at a lowly 30.8% (328th). |
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03-01-17 | Utah State -4 v. UNLV | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UNLV has disappeared into the abyss, its losing streak at 8 (and 0-6-1 vs. the line its last seven) after its Feb. 22 humbling at Air Force. Mountain West sources now believe that HC Marvin Menzies actually worked some magic earlier in the season when guiding his talent-shy Rebs to 10 SU wins! The capable Utags already outclassed UNLV by 16 at Logan on Jan. 7 when F Christian Jones (17 points) was the only Rebel to score DDs. UNLV has few options these days, especially as its FG shooting has dipped below 40%. USU is now confident it can succeed on the conference road after last week’s impressive win at credible San Jose. |
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02-28-17 | Fresno State +4.5 v. Boise State | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Streaky FSU is gunning for its first four-game winning streak of the season following its ego-boosting 63-55 upset at San Diego State on Wednesday. With BSU in the midst of a five-game spread losing skein heading into Saturday’s game vs. San Jose, will gladly “take” with the ball-thievin’ Bulldogs (8.5 spg; 13th nationally), who out rebounded the Aztecs by 10 and committed only 9 TOs vs. defensively tough SDS. The Broncos’ slumping defense, which has permitted a whopping 83.3 ppg over the last 3, will have trouble slowing down the FSU attack, bolstered by blossoming, homegrown 6-8 frosh F Bryson Williams (7.8 ppg), who has popped for a combined 32 points augmented by 16 boards over the last two outings. The bustling Bulldogs are a nifty 7-2 as a visiting underdog TY. |
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02-28-17 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech -135 | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Pittsburgh travels to Georgia Tech today in a matchup of two teams looking to snap late-season slumps and build momentum heading toward the ACC tournament. The Panthers have dropped three of their past four games after Saturday’s 85-67 home loss to North Carolina. In addition the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. |
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02-28-17 | Oklahoma State +3 v. Iowa State | 83-86 | Push | 0 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I didn’t see this coming with OSU, especially after the Cowboys dropped their first six out of the gate in Big 12 play. But the Cowboys have evolved into a UCLA-like offensive force now surging toward the Big Dance for first-year HC Brad Underwood (formerly SF Austin), as the Stillwater bunch had won 9 of 10 SU after last Wednesday’s recovery from a slow start at K-State. Note electric soph G Jawun Evans, who has caught fire and scored 24 ppg in recent wins over Oklahoma and KSU. It’s very a different OSU than the one that lost at home to ISU on Jan. 11. |
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02-28-17 | Ohio State v. Penn State -123 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units The Buckeyes are coming off a home upset over Wisconsin but they are just 4-10 ATS this season following a victory. Additionally, they are just 3-7 on the road with two of those coming in the conference by just four points combined and the other coming at Navy. |
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02-28-17 | St. John's v. Creighton -9.5 | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 29 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Big Dance-bound CU off a loss at Villanova, won’t hesitate to “lay it” with resilient Bluejays (4-1 vs. the spread following SU loss thru Feb. 24), highly-charged on Senior Night to avoid their first 3-game losing skein of the year. CU’s high-octane, accurate-gunning attack (84.3 ppg; 51.9% FGs; 41.1% from arc)—benefiting from sharper play making provided by 6-3 soph PG Khyri Thomas—gets open looks galore vs. soft SJ defense, permitting 85 ppg as visitor TY. Bluejays, led by dynamic 6-11 frosh C Justin Patton (13.6 ppg; 25 in 1st tilt), outscored the Red Storm in the paint, 52-24, in their 85-72 victory in Madison Square Garden on Jan. 4. |
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02-27-17 | Oklahoma v. Kansas -14.5 | 63-73 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas has a national player of the year candidate in Frank Mason III, but it was a seldom-used reserve that helped it secure sole possession of its 13th consecutive Big 12 title on Saturday. The third-ranked Jayhawks hope to get another outstanding performance from forward Dwight Coleby when they host Oklahoma today. Kansas has won 33 straight home finales and Oklahoma hasn’t won in Allen Field House since 1993. |
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02-27-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Junior forward Zach LeDay (16.6 points, 7.0 rebounds) comes off the bench but there is no doubt he is Williams' go-to scorer, shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 77.5 percent from the foul line. Virginia Tech is 3-1 since they lost forward Chris Clarke with a torn ACL thanks in large part to the play of his replacement Ty Outlaw (5.0 points), who has averaged 14.3 points on 75 percent shooting from the field in the last three games. The Hokies lead the ACC in field-goal percentage (49.1) and 3-point shooting percentage (40.6) with four players -- Seth Allen, Outlaw, Justin Bibbs and Ahmed Hill -- shooting between 40.1 and 47.9 percent from beyond the arc. |
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02-27-17 | Troy State v. Texas-Arlington -11 | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Movin’ Mavs are moving closer to locking up the Sun Belt regular-season crown. And, in this game, UTA gets a chance to avenge its biggest loss of the season, a 93-71 setback in Alabama January 14. Make no mistake, Troy is a potent foe. But the experienced Mavs (top nine scorers TY are back from LY) are undefeated in Arlington and eager for revenge, led by 5-11 PG Erick Neal (No. 3 in U.S. with 6.5 apg) and 6-7 jr. Kevin Hervey (17.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg). |
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02-27-17 | North Carolina -160 v. Virginia | 43-53 | Loss | -160 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units North Carolina already has locked up the top seed in the ACC Tournament, but the eighth-ranked Tar Heels still have some work to do to secure a higher seed for the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels can add another quality road win to their resume if they knock off No. 19 Virginia today. The Tar Heels clinched the No. 1 seed with an 85-67 win at Pittsburgh on Saturday and can claim the outright ACC title with a victory Monday or versus arch-rival Duke on Saturday. The Cavaliers snapped a four-game skid – their longest since the 2009-10 season – with a 70-55 win at North Carolina State on Saturday and have a quick turnaround to prepare for a Tar Heels team that hammered them 65-41 on Feb. 18 in Chapel Hill. |
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02-26-17 | Houston -2.5 v. Memphis | 72-71 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston used a big second half to cool down sizzling Connecticut last game. The Cougars, looking to improve their NCAA Tournament resume, aim for their 20th win of the season when they visit Memphis in an American Athletic Conference game today. Houston won six of its last seven and boosted its RPI to 58 after defeating UConn 75-70. The Cougars got 25 points from Damyean Dotson and erased a double-digit deficit to notch the win and take over third place in the AAC. Memphis fell out of contention in the conference after dropping three straight games, including an 87-74 loss at No. 16 Cincinnati last time out. |
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02-26-17 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +3.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAB Play of the Day Michigan State looks to continue its push toward an NCAA Tournament bid when it hosts reeling No. 15 Wisconsin in a key Big Ten Conference contest today. Losers of three of their last four, the Badgers enter the matchup just one-half game behind Purdue for first place in the conference standings, while the Spartans are coming off a win on Thursday that has them within one-half game of a three-way tie for fourth in the league. |
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02-26-17 | Detroit v. Green Bay -10 | 81-89 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In this “Packers vs. Lions” Horizon clash, compelled to look at the payback angle for host Green Bay, which was ambushed at Detroit back on Jan. 29. That day the Fighting Phoenix might have still been celebrating their big win at Oakland two nights earlier. Although GB might be in the same situation if it beat the Golden Griz again on Friday, still see no reason to fear the erratic Titans. Detroit’s defensive numbers are among the nation’s worst (85.1 ppg allowed ranks a sickly 344th) and still allowed the Phoenix to hit 61% from the floor when springing the upset four weeks ago |