Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-18-18 | Stanford v. Arizona State +2 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
Arizona State +2.5 2.2% Play This play is a late release, because I was holding out for a 3, but only one shop has it, but I feel comfortable with Arizona State here, and think they pull the upset. Stanford has a lot of weaknesses right now with their only strength being the QB play of KJ Costello. Costello, however has been sacked a lot ranking 83rd in sack % for a team that passes the ball 55% of the time that is not a good stat. What makes it worse is the fact that Stanford has gone against bad pass rush teams's ranking 74.8 in sack % on average. Well, Arizona State and their unique 3-3-5 defense is fast, and they get to the QB ranking 22nd in sack %, and at home they are even more dangerous. Last year Stanford needed 307 yards rushing and they still only won 34-24 at home against Arizona State. This year Bryce Love won't be 100%, and they are not going to push him, and they rank 125th in yards per carry. That's with what was one of the best offensive lines, but they are allowing too many plays behind the line of scrimmage. Arizona State ranks 46th in rushing defense, and if they can do what they typically do at home at night, in 82 degrees they should come out victorious. Also, don't sleep on Arizona State's offense, the two offensive guys that were questionable in Wilkins and Harry will play here. Worth mentioning is the fact that both teams are off extra rest, but Stanford last year was awful in this situation going 0-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up. Their only win was a 15-14 win on a Thursday night at Oregon State, yuck. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Patriots -3.5 -105 3.3% play |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
broncos +7 3.3% |
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10-14-18 | Panthers v. Redskins +1.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
REdskins 1.5 2.2% play |
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10-13-18 | Miami-FL v. Virginia +7 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
Virginia +7 4.4% play Virginia was in their second road game last year at Miami and led 28-14 late, before Miami scored the final 30 points to win 44-28 in misleading fashion a year ago as Miami was outgained by 79 yards. Virginia simply ran out of gas which is something they will not due this Saturday in a RARE night game in Virginia off a bye. Virginia is actually expecting a good crowd here hosting Miami who they have gone 3-1 straight up since 2010 at home. They’ll be off a bye while Miami is coming off an emotional victory against rival Florida State, a game they trailed 27-7. Miami just 2-3 following Florida State game the last 5 years and I expect Virginia might pull the upset. They have the better QB here in dual threat Bryce Perkins leading an offense that ranks 31st in yards per play. Perkins has 1603 total yards, 63% completion %, 17 total TD’s, and just 4 interceptions. Miami’s new QB Perry did throw for 4 TD’s, but completed just 13 of his 31 passes, 51% for the season. He will have issues going up against Virginia’ underrated defense which ranks 42nd in adjusted D having faced 49th adjusted offense ranking. Miami’s defense that has dominated has actually faced a weak offensive schedule. Their opponents on average rank 78.4 in yards per play compare that with what Virginia has had to contend with with opponents ranking 52nd in yards per play offense. Virginia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a bye, and Bronco Mendenhall as a head coach is 17-11 straight up. Watch out for the Turnover Toaster in this rare night game where it will be 51 degrees in Virginia. That’s not the ideal environment for these Florida boys. |
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10-13-18 | Louisiana Tech -10.5 v. UTSA | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech -10.5 3.3% play This is a hidden gem in my opinion as UTSA is off 3 misleading victories over arguably the three worst teams in college football, Rice, UTEP, Texas STate who are a combined 0-14 vs. FBS. The strength of schedule for UTSA can’t get worse at #126, and their offense ranks #130 having faced an average defense ranking #91 in yards per play. How is that possible? Here they are stepping up in competition in a big way and it’s just a bad match-up.
UTSA can’t run the ball ranking #119 having faced a defenses that rank #97.5 on average. So they have turned to their QB more often than not passing the ball 53% of the time, and they rank #127 in QB Rating. #127 is against an average defense ranking #83.8 and here they face a pass defense from Louisiana Tech that ranks #24. Louisiana TEch’s offense will have success putting up yards and points in my opinion as they step down in competition in a major way. QB J’mar Smith while they rank 103rd in QB Rating has faced the #36 on average pass defense. Here they face #116. The road environment won’t bother him as they have already played 3 road games. J’mar Smith has 9 TD’s and 5 INT’s which is actually quite impressive given the strength of schedule they have faced. We are getting some line value here as well as La Tech just lost at UAB 7-28. Louisiana Tech will score 30+ points here, and should be enough for an easy cover. |
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10-13-18 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Iowa State +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Iowa State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a dog, and they are a significant step up in competition for West Virginia. West Virginia is not #6 ranked team just like LSU was not #5 going on the road as a favorite a week ago and losing at Florida. This is the Big 12 version of that with Iowa State playing very well despite injuries at QB position Iowa State managed to upset Oklahoma State last week on the road. They also played Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa to 10 pints or less.
Iowa State inserted mobile QB Brock Purdy and against a good defense in Oklahoma State he put up 400+ yards and 5 TD”s, 4 through the air. Iowa State’s offense is very under rated in my opinion as they rank 83rd in yards per play, but have faced a tough schedule facing defenses ranked on average #36 in yards per play allowed. Here they face another good defense in West Virginia #25, but West Virginia has not played faced a top 35 team yet.
West Virginia’s offense has dominated behind Will Grier, but look at the defenses they have faced. On average ranking 102nd yards per play allowed, 92nd average in QB rating defense, and on average they have faced a rushing defense ranking 99.5. The rushing defense is what really is a red flag, because it appears West Virginia is completely one dimensional on offense and that won’t win on the road. They rank 73rd in yards per carry and they faced on average a 99.5 ranked defense. Here they face Iowa State’s 13th ranked rushing defense. What does that mean? Unless West Virginia throws early they are going to set themselves up on third and longs and Iowa State ranks 32nd in sack %. They can put pressure on the QB and force mistakes. West Virginia is 99th in TO Margin, and Grier turned the ball over 3 times inside the 30. Iowa State will be fine giving up the yards to West Virginia, but are stingy in the red zone allowing just 50% TD percentage. Last year they gave up a ton of yards, but held West Virginia to 20 points. This is a night game in Ames with a great home crowd looking for an upset before going into their bye. |
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10-13-18 | Purdue -10.5 v. Illinois | 46-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
Purdue -10.5 2.2% play Purdue in their largest away favorite role since 2007, but for good reason. They come fresh off a bye here needing another win, and the matchup is favorable. First of all Purdue’s defense which was supposed to take a step back this year has played very well of late. The strength of the defense is getting to the QB and stopping the run. Illinois strength is running the ball and staying out of third and long and I expect they may struggle. When you look at Illinois running game they rank 11th in yards per carry, but they have faced the 89th ranked run defense on average.
Purdue going up against a very good Boston College rushing game held that one dimensional attack to 7 points at home. Illinois also getting more % of tickets this week after they looked really good last week, but that was against Rutgers. Purdue is a Big Ten team on the rise with a top flight offense under Jeff Brohm. Illinois ranking 110th in yards per play allowed will face Purdue’s #16th ranked offense, an offense that can throw it and run it. Purdue will throw it more, and Illinois can’t get to the QB ranking 116th in sack % and if you can’t get to the QB you are going to give up a ton of yards. The pace of this game should be quick, and Illinois really does not slow it down enough for me to want to back them as a home dog. Even against Penn State at home as a +28 they lost after leading by 3 late. Purdue is not a team to take their foot off the gas so 10 point spread is not as high as it seems in typical situations. |
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10-13-18 | Georgia -7.5 v. LSU | 16-36 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
Duke +8.5 Teaser A lot of people are picking Duke here to pull the upset which makes me a bit nervous, but I do feel like we have great value with the teaser. Duke, of course very familiar with the option, and has done great against it going 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. an option team which includes 4-0 ATS run vs. Georgia Tech covering those games by an average of 16 points per game. Duke also gets the extra week to prepare. GEorgia Tech who has the #4 ranked offensive attack and runs the ball 83% of the time will keep this clock ticking. They have gotten there facing the average #88 rushing defense, but here they face Duke off a bye who ranks #14.
Meanwhile Georgia Tech off two blow out victories and feeling great about themselves, but this is a game they know they need to win. Duke has faced the tougher schedule, and they have the QB Daniel Jones to make all the plays. Jones broke his clavicle which led to losses for Duke and the extra time off definitely helps him heal and be 100%. Duke will line up and face the #93 ranked defense, which is accurate with a #94 adjusted defense ranking. They are #79 vs. the run, and #71 s. The pass, and #107 at getting to the QB Despite facing teams that don’t protect their QB. Jones will have a clean pocket and when he does he’s smart and they won’t turn the ball over to give Georgia Tech to win this by double digits.
This total has dropped 5 points, these teams are familiar with each other and both want to run the ball first. Expect a tight lower scoring game and that means the extra 6 points are just far more valuable here.
Georgia -1 LSU is a popular dog this week that I am fading. LSU has impressive wins on their resume with Auburna on the road and Miami to open the season, but those wins are becoming less and less impressive. Their defense which ranks #39 has yet to see a balanced offense all year. The offenses they did face could either run it or pass it but not both. Here comes Georgia who can do both and do it efficiently. Georgia players already calling this game the start of their season, and LSU proved last week when they gave up 215 yards rushing to Florida that they can be run on.
Jake Fromm is probably the most underrated player in the nation in my opinion. He is a poised QB that as a freshman led his team to the National Championship. This year he is fighting off a “better prospect” in Justin Fields and just playing great. Death Valley at 3:30 kickoff won’t phase him at all and he’ll lead this team to a victory. My #’s have this game at 13.3 point favorite for Georgia. I like the teaser value we are getting more here.
LSU has been a popular pick and many are pointing to Georgia’s schedule and their lack of defensive pressure. Georgia ranking #117 in sack %, but they have faced an opponenet sack % allowed ranking on average #39.8. LSU is not getting to the QB either ranking #94 ins ack % and they have faced teams that just don’t protect the QB Ranking #74.6 in protection, but LSU still has not been able to create pressure. The only way LSU wins this game is if they force turnovers and I just don’t see how that is possible with Fromm out there. Georgia is 10th in the nation in TO margin, and it is far more likely that LSU’s QB Burrow turns the ball over. LSU in 3 conference games have 5 TO’s while Georgia is +4 TO margin in their 4 conference games. Georgia also +17.5% TD percentage in the red zone on the season compared to LSU who is struggling at -6.5%. Fade the popular dog LSU as they step up in competition. |
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10-13-18 | Florida -7 v. Vanderbilt | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
Florida -7 2.2% play My math models have this game around -10. Normally I would want to fade FLorida in this situation, but they are a different team this year. They rely on the run and they are good at it ranking #25 in the country despite facing an adjusted opponent defense ranking #1. Vanderbilt comes into this game ranking #84 defending the run, and that’s against an opponent average rushing attack ranking #53. The strength of this Vanderbilt offense is the QB play, but they are facing #10 ranked QB defense. Florida also able to get after the QB ranking #9 in the country. All that travels and Florida is ranked #4 in TO margin while Vanderbilt ranks #42. Vanderbilt should have beaten Notre Dame on the road when Notre Dame still had Whimbush at QB and we backed Vanderbilt in that game, but since that game Vanderbilt has lost 2 games vs. SEC foes by 23 points, and 28 points. Florida fits in that category and there is no hangover here as they want to go into their bye week excited for what they have coming out of the bye facing Georgia in 2 weeks. |
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10-12-18 | Arizona v. Utah -13.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Utah -13.5 3.3% Play Both teams off misleading victories last week, but Utah has had many misleading losses this year and could very easily be undefeated. Their misleading victory over Stanford was at least a dominating 40-21 on the road. Arizona got +4 TO's against Cal including two pick 6's, but only won 24-17 at home. Now Arizona most go on the road to on a short week to play Utah who has got some confidence, and their head coach Kevin Sumlin is complaining about the short week which just gives your players excuses early in this game if things don't start well. Utah got great play by their QB last week Tyler Huntley and he was finding multiple receivers which is a great sign for this offense. I'm not surprised as I was high on Utah coming into this season. Huntley has had a challenging scheduling going up an average opponent sack rate of #43, and average opponent QB rating of 42, and an average opponent rushing ypc of 40.25. Here, Arizona ranks #65 vs. the pass vs. waek competition, and #99 in sack %, and their run defense is #91 vs. the run. This should help create balance for a Utah offense that has struggled at times this year. I don't see how they don't put up 31 points with RB Zack Moss probably having the ability to rush for 100+ yards again. Arizona's offense with QB Tate was highly touted coming into the year, but the coaching change and Tate being forced to throw more along with his health has held this offense back. Offensively they really don't do anything well. They rank 47th in ypc, but that has been against an opponent defense ranking #74.4, here they face Utah #6 at home. They rank #93 in QB rating and that has been against an average QB defense of #70, here Utah ranks #34, and Utah's secondary has been tested a bit for sure. The weather is going to be cold at 46 degrees for those Arizona boys so when Utah gets up I don't think there is any back door open for them to cover this spread. |
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10-07-18 | Raiders +5.5 v. Chargers | 10-26 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 53 m | Show | |
Raiders +5 3.3% play |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | 9-12 | Win | 105 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Browns +3 +105 2.5% play |
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10-07-18 | Falcons v. Steelers -3 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
Steelers -3 -125 3% play |
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10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
Bills +5 5.5% NFL POD |
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10-06-18 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +7 | 45-23 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech +7 3.3% Play I see a couple of 7.5 with extra juice out there so you may be able to wait this one out if you want. Plenty of people wanting to back Notre Dame.
So many story lines here for the Hokies to post up on their bulletin board. Notre Dame switched their QB to Ian Book and all of a sudden they are going to be playing Alabama in the National Championship. Virginia Tech players keep being reminded that they lost to Old Dominion, but it seems like they got over that last week, and they cut some players that were creating some turmoil in the locker room if you ask me and have made room for the younger more talented guys. QB Ryan Willis looked better running this offense than Joshua Jackson, and I know he’s a “Kansas” QB transfer and that’s another thing that people are talking about, but Willis (no relation), actually set a Kansas freshman record for passing yards in just 8 starts when he was there. The 4th thing on the bulletin board is Bud Foster’s defense and how it’s just not as good, we will see. Notre Dame is better with Ian Book I will admit that, but in his 2 starts he went against #56 run defense / #88 pass defense in Stanford, a team in a horrible situation after playing an OT game on the West Coast to Oregon winning, saving their season in dramatic fashion. Previously he started against Wake Forest who had the 107th ranked run defense, and 96th ranked pass defense. We have seen Book before, and we have seen him make mental mistakes against good defenses. Virginia Tech is +6 turnover margin on the season which could play a factor here considering they have struggled at the tackle position and just lost their pre-season All American LG Alex Bars for the season. Expect VT’s Ricky Walker to play a key part in forcing a couple of turnovers in their home hostile environment. Enter Sandman. |
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10-06-18 | Kentucky +6 v. Texas A&M | 14-20 | Push | 0 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
Kentucky +6 3.3% play This line is a major slap in the face to the Wildcats, but they are used to it and I expect it to motivate them. Texas A&M is very similar to Kentucky when we look at their offense and defense, but I think Kentucky is the more balanced team. Many will point out to Terry Wilson’s struggles throwing the ball, but he’s faced 4 TOP 42 passing defenses. Compare that with A&M and Kellen Mond who has seen just 1 passing defense in the top 42.
Nobody has played Clemson or Alabama better than A&M, but Kentucky has 3 wins already over SEC opponents, and I think they are the better team here. Texas A&M has been a rock against the run ranking #29 facing an average offense ranking 31.75 so the rushign defense is legit, but Kentucky has been able to run the ball all year against legit defenses. This may be the first time Kentucky has the ability to pass early on downs going up against A&M who ranks 114th vs. the pass, Kentucky ranks 3rd. Kentucky also has a very good run defense ranking #28 and they have also faced 3 top 30 rushing offenses and have won those games. Offensively Kentucky ranks #8 in rushing yards per carry behind Benny Snell who will motivate his team to victory. Snell has done this vs. a weaker run defense schedule ranking on average 61 compared to A&M’s 59th rank vs. an average opponent ranking 39th vs. the run. Overall Kentucky seems to have the edge with no red flags. A&M is -5 in turnover margin and missed two field goals and struggled against Arkansas last week. I have this game -3 A&M, and lined pk on a neutral field, and I’ll back a team like Kentucky who seems to have the better defense. |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State +2.5 v. Colorado | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Arizona State +2.5 3.3% play The wrong team is favored here and Colorado has faced the weakest schedule of maybe any team. Their opponents are 1-16, and they have yet to play a top 50 pass defense or top 50 run defense, but they are about to face Arizona State who is both.
Arizona State is well coached and may be as balanced as any team in the country. Manny Wilkins is not turning the ball over at QB and he can run the ball as well. Wilkins ran for 95 yards in this matchup last year as Colorado gave up a season high 381 yards to Arizona STate. Arizona State 6.25 yards per carry in wins and 3.13 in losses will be the key. I think they can run in this game with Wilkins back there and the RB Eno Benjamin. Colorado has given up more than 5 yards per carry against two worse rushing offenses in Nebraska and UCLA. Nebraska’s freshmen QB Martinez rushed for 117 yards. For Arizona State’s defense I feel like they can dominate. They are running a different defense that Colorado is not used to seeing in the 3-3-5. They are ranked 10th in the nation in sack %, and Colorado’s offensive line is struggling to pass protect ranking 92nd. That’s with facing teams who rank 116, 42, and 72 in getting to the QB. I think Arizona State is fully capable of dominating this game and winning by double digits. |
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10-06-18 | Ohio v. Kent State +12 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
Kent +12 2.2% play Ohio has struggled in their last two trips to Kent winning by 4 points. I see them really trying to slow this game down with a bigger game on deck at Northern Illinois. Ohio is ranked 109th in pace and take the full play clock between plays which should shorten this game quite a bit in my opinion. This is also Ohio’s third road game in 4 weeks, and Kent is playing their first home game vs. an FBS opponent.
Kent played Howard in week 2 at home and won 54-14 against the FCS foe. I wouldn’t normally bring up a game like that, but Ohio needed a +4 TO margin to hang on against Howard in week 1 38-32. Ohio was -222 yards in that game compared to Kent State who was +241. Kent State also did not rely on TO’s to get the victory. Kent State has faced the tougher schedule ranking 50th compared to Ohio ranking 100th. They are only -1.73 yards per play compared to Ohio who is -0.72. Kent actually played well last week at Ball STate had a +2.8% success rate in the 52-24 loss which was a bit misleading. I would not be shocked to see this game come down to a field goal. |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
Texas +7.5 -1.15 4.5 NCAAF POD Texas is built to beat Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is built to beat all Big 12 teams which is the reason they have struggled in this match-up in the past despite being big favorites they are 0-5 ATS the last 5 years vs. Texas in this game. Tom Herman 11-1 ATS as a head coach with 8 outright upsets as an underdog is very impressive. Oklahoma comes into this game high flying after 66-33 win over Baylor, but it's Baylor. Oklahoma has not faced any team worth speaking about other than Iowa State who just over achieves each year with the talent they have. This will be the game that Oklahoma misses RB Rodney Anderson as the struggling running game will have issues moving the ball against Texas defense. Oklahoma might want to put it in Kyler Murray's hands, but I actually think that is what will win this game for Texas. Murray has been inaccurate all year long from what I have seen he's been lucky to have guys running wide open. Here he goes up against the #19 pass defense and that's just not going to happen. So far Murray has faced an average 97.4 pranked pass defense. Texas also comes into the game ranking #32 in opponent interception % thrown. Murray has gone against #99, 118, 93, 120 and #89 in that category. Oklahoma's schedule has been weak their 5 opponents are 1-10 vs. the Power 5. Meanwhile Texas has beaten ranked opponents in TCU, and USC. Texas played well in this game last year behind QB Sam Ehlinger and took the lead late. I expect they will have a shot to win this game yet again in the 4th quarter. |
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10-05-18 | Utah State v. BYU -2.5 | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
BYU -2.5 2.2% Play Previously BYU did not view this game as a rivalry game, but this is one of the games they circled on their calendar in the off season. It seems like everyone is on Utah State and their video like numbers, but they have had a very weak schedule so far this season while BYU has had a very challenging schedule facing 4 power 5 opponents in Washington, Wisconsin, Arizona and Cal, and 3 of those 4 were some of the best defenses last year. BYU is also getting two defensive starters back in LB Anderson and S Ghanwoloku who missed last week so the defense should be able to stop the running game of Utah State that they have relied on so much scoring 17 TD's. Utah State has simply dominated in the red zone this year, but again their opponents are not very talented on the defensive side of the ball besides Michigan State who may have been looking past them. In last year's loss, BYU actually held Utah State to 288 yards. They actually led 21-7 in the 2nd quarter before their backup QB Beau Hoge was lost for the game. In comes the offensive coordinator's son Koy Detmer, and he throws not 1, not 2, but 3 six picks and Utah State wins in very misleading fashion 40-26. I think BYU has proven more this season in wins over Arizona and Wisconsin that they are a much improved team. I don't really know what Utah State has proven up to this point. They are coming off a bye, but they are going on the road so I think those two things even out. With the two defensive returners returning for BYU, I expect a win by a TD or more. |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 38 m | Show | |
Broncos +4.5 4.4% play |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 33-18 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
NY Giants +3.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Bears -3 +100 3% play |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State -3.5 v. Penn State | 27-26 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 11 m | Show | |
Ohio State -3.5 4.4% Play I am grabbing this number early in the week before it goes up to 6. I have not been impressed with Penn State who has yet to see a decent defense. They struggled and were trailing at Illinois halfway through the third quarter and our +28 Illinois ticket looked like it would cash. However, Penn State made it a point to blow the game up and look good on paper covering the spread with ease throwing 40 yard passes up 25 with less than 5 minutes to go. I feel like the Big Ten is down this year, but Ohio State is the class of the league. They got a nice warm up with Urban Meyer back in the mix, and I expect they win this game by double digits. Penn State's defense is trash, and their offense will have issues against a good defensive line which Ohio State has. Expect a high scoring game, but I don't see how Penn State can stop Ohio State's offense which is better than last year's. |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 14 m | Show |
South Carolina +1 5.5% NCAAF POD Kentucky is a hot pick right now and everyone is picking them over South Carolina this week. I am high on Kentucky, and I even bet them at Florida, but I think this is a different match-up. This is the first time Kentucky is in the AP Top 25 in 11 years and they are facing an unranked team yet they are only a 1 point favorite? They have actually dominated South Carolina over the last 4 years winning 4 straight, but they are only a 1 point favorite? Kentucky is actually just 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and South Carolina has covered their last 8 road games. This is a different South Carolina that Kentucky has to go against this week compared to Florida and Miss State who they took down as double digit dogs. Florida and Miss State can not pass the ball and are one dimensional on offense. South Carolina with Jake Bentley and their star receivers can move the ball through the air which should open up some running lanes. The strength of this Kentucky team is in the front 7, and South Carolina’s offensive line has been very good protecting the QB ranking 9th in sack % allowed. South Carolina is a balanced offense and although they rank similarly in yards per play at #20 to Miss State and Florida who ranked 18th and 22nd the strength of schedule South Carolina has faced to get there is totally different. Miss State ranks 18th, but faced YPP defenses of 100th, 122 and an FCS foe. Florida ranks 22nd but faced 126, 95 and an FCS foe. South Carolina ranks 20th, can pass the ball, and played 116th, 23rd, and 41st ranked defenses. South Carolina is also led by a defensive minded coach. They held Benny Snell to 103 rushing yards on 32 carries which is pretty damn good in last year’s game. South Carolina will force Terry Wilson at QB to beat them and so far he has 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. This is simply a bad matchup for Kentucky. |
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09-29-18 | Hawaii v. San Jose State +10 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
San Jose State +330 2% Play Last week we gave out Purdue +218 and it cashed with ease over BC in a 30-7 victory. This is a tough spot for Hawaii already their 6th game in 6 weeks and this is their 3rd time traveling while they face San Jose State team off a bye. I really think San Jose can pull the upset here facing Hawaii who is getting plenty of action from bettors as their QB McDonald leads the nation in passing. Hawaii however did not get off to a good start in their last game against Duquesne who took a 14-0 lead to start the game despite traveling over 5,000 miles. San Jose State played well vs. their two PAC 12 opponents especially vs. the pass coming up with 5 interceptions against Washington State and Oregon. They held Oregon’s Justin HErbert to 47% completion percentage, Herbert completed 78.8% of his passes against Stanford. THe passing defenses that McDonald has faced rank 119th, 108, 129, and 113th. |
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09-29-18 | Utah -1.5 v. Washington State | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
Utah -1.5 Utah off a bye here while Washington State is coming off a big road loss at USC. Utah is 20-6 following a bye straight up under Kyle Whitingham and has revenge after losing the last three years to Washington State. Last year they only lost by 8 points despite 7 turnovers. That's hard to do, and they'll look to rebound following their poor loss against Washington at home 2 weeks ago. The bye also helped the health of Utah whose most important offensive asset is Zack Moss, 100% for this game it sounds like. Moss is one of the top backs in the nation when fresh and I think that will show in this game as Utah looks to rebound. Utah still has the #1 efficiency pass defense which Wash St will want to do a lot of here. I just feel like Utah is the better team here +2.43 yards per play vs. the 41st ranked SOS while Washington State is +1.61 yp vs the 74th ranked SOS. Utah made many mistakes in their loss vs. Washington which I think a bye allowed them to work on. |
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09-29-18 | Pittsburgh +13 v. Central Florida | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 45 m | Show | |
PItt + 13 2.2% play Over 75% of the tickets are on UCF, but 56% of the money is on PItt and the line that opened up at 14.5 is down to 13. From a #’s perspective I have this around 10.5 or 11. So, I still think 13 is a decent # here, and it might be worth waiting if you can grab a 14 at your book later in the week, but overall I feel good about Pitt’s chances here.
Pitt the last two years they have knocked off a #2 team in the nation. Last year they knocked off Miami to close the year and the year before they knocked off Clemson on the road so it would not surprise me if they knocked another team in the top rankings off here. IT’s worth noting that they won those two games coming off a loss. Pat Narduzzi already challenging his team’s effort against North Carolina last week so I think he will get their best effort here.
UCF has a 16 game winning streak and are self proclaimed National Champions, but this team is a different team all together this year. Their offense is still very good led by McKenzie Milton, but something tells me that they are due for a trip up, and they have a ton of pressure here to try to blow out Pitt. UCF has played Uconn, SC State and FAU, a team that is not as good as last year, but still managed to rush for 320 yards against UCF. If Pitt is smart they will slow this game down and run the ball. So far this season they are averaging 5.44 yards per carry and they ran for more than 200 yards against both North Carolina and Penn State. UCF has given up 320 to FAU, and 220 to Uconn in week 1. |
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09-29-18 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas +17 | 48-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas +17 3.3% play Oklahoma State was on the doorstep of cracking into the Top 10 after their blowout of Boise State which was extremely misleading. Now they are coming off a big loss against Texas Tech at home, and there are red flags all over the place for this team. Since 2008 they are just 14-15-1 ATS following a SU loss so it’s not like this team rebounds under Gundy, and I also think they may not be excited for this game especially since with a loss they really can’t be thinking about bigger things this season. In their last meeting at Kansas this was a 24-20 game halfway through the third quarter and I think Kansas can draw some confidence from that.
Kansas is playing good defense holding all 4 opponents under 40% success rate and two of them under 30%. Oklahoma State has struggled on offense with Taylor Cornelius at QB and he just lost his second leading receiver who chose to red shirt and transfer. Oklahoma State’s offense is only 13-40 on third downs this year and they have 7 TO’s in 4 games. Meanwhile Kansas is +12 TO margin on the year and has only turned the ball over once. Kansas is certainly improved and I think they get a huge opportunity to prove that their two wins against Central Michigan and Rutgers were not a fluke. My one worry would be the offensive line as Oklahoma State lead the nation with 19 sacks, but Kansas is actually smart running the ball 60% of the time and they have averaged over 5 yards per carry on the season led by Freshman Pooka Williams, 8.02 ypc. Oklahoma State’s run defense has been solid, but their last trip to Kansas they actually allowed over 200 yards on the ground. Overall I think this game is going to be more of a defensive game, and I think Kansas can win the turnover battle. |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas +21.5 v. Texas A&M | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show | |
Arkansas +21.5 2.2% Play @12pm ET Nobody wants to touch Arkansas right now and that’s exactly the time we would like to back them. I think there is tremendous value here and if you don’t see a 21.5 you will on Saturday, but I like 21 as I have this line at 17. The spread in this game the last 3 years has been under a TD.
This will be a neutral field game at Jerry World in Dallas. Arkansas 0-3 ATS vs. Texas A&M 4-0 ATS which just creates more line value and Arkansas looked pretty damn good against Auburn holding them to 225 yards in their 34-3 loss.
Arkansas has to clean up its act on special teams, and not turn the ball over here and they should cover the spread. A&M has only forced 1 TO all season, and they have struggled protecting their QB and will face Arkansas who is 3rd in adjusted sack rate. The Aggies also have struggled to run the ball against Clemson/Alabama who I know have a better defense than Arkansas, but Arkansas was very impressive last weekend against a very good Auburn offense on the road. Texas A&M meanwhile off their big game against Alabama. TEams typically do not play well following an Alabama matchup. |
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09-29-18 | Temple v. Boston College -12 | 35-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Boston College -12.5 2.2% play A lot of Temple's success the last two games is due to their ability to get a pass rush in predictable passing situations and create turnovers. I don't see them being able to get into that situation this week against Boston College, and I expect Boston College to run the ball, and when they do pass guys will be wide open on play action. Temple has played better in their last two games and that has this line moving 14 points, but I have this game lined 18.5. I wrote an article about how my initial lean was Temple, but the more I look at this game I really like Boston College's chances here. Temple has no offense to speak of ranking 104th in yards per play averaging less than 4 yards per carry and 50% completion percentage. They really don't have the passing game to take advantage of Boston College's weakness which is their pass defense as we saw last week when Purdue passed for 296 yards 3 TD's and 0 INT's. |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +15.5 | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Tulane +15 2.2% play Tulane is getting just 28% of the tickets and 37% of the money and we have seen this line move about 5 points. Tulane is desperate for a win, and I think they will be in this game. Their record is misleading here as they are 13 points away from being 3-1 instead of 1-3. Their strength of schedule is far superior to Memphis. Memphis has faced offensive/defensive rankings - 102/101, 100/129, and 92/86 + an FCS foe. Compare that with Tulane who has faced 96/108 - That's Wake Forest and we know those #'s are much better, 54/88, and 8/31. Tulane played Wake Forest a very good offense to the wire and they get a similar look in Memphis, a team that is pretty balanced and wants to run up tempo. They really held Wake Forest offense in check and that was very impressive. Wake Forests numbers have been down due to play a tough schedule themselve featuring BC and Notre Dame. This is the best offense that Memphis has faced and that's really not saying much. Jonathan Banks has to be able to throw it and the offense has to be able to run the ball here at home on a Friday night I expect they will be able to. Memphis gave up 264 rushing yards against Navy in a sloppy game that saw them turn it over 4 times. There could be rain and similar conditions here tonight. Memphis is also banged up on defense here with guys missing practice traveling on a short week there is value on Tulane. Memphis was 4 TD favorite last week and they were tied with South Alabama at half time yet they keep getting steamed up and we will come back in on the other side and take the value as I have this game around 11.5 not 15! |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
Vikings +7.5 3% play |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
Steelers pk 4.4% play |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Ravens -6 3.3% play |
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09-23-18 | Titans v. Jaguars -9.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Jaguars -10 2.2% play |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +6.5 v. Chiefs | 27-38 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
49ers +6.5 3.3% play |
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09-22-18 | Stanford v. Oregon +3 | 38-31 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Oregon +3 3.3% play When is the last time Oregon defeated a decent team? That is the question many are asking, and the reason why many are backing Stanford this week. This is just the 4th time in the last 8 years that Oregon is a dog at home. Stanford is getting all the money because they have faced two solid teams in San Diego STate & USC and have won and covered, but now they go on the road for the first time this season and face an Oregon team that has not played anyone.
Oregon has a new offensive coordinator along with an offensive coach in Mario Cristobal in his first year. The offense through the first three games has been “designing a new approach.” That’s exactly what the coaching staff called it, but I expect them to go back to what works and pull out all the stops to get a big time win at home. What is hidden in all of this is how well Oregon’s defense has played and how poorly Stanford has run the ball. I don’t anticipate much to change and Oregon’s aggressive defense will continue their improvement on defense this year under Jim Leavitt who is arguably a top 5 defensive coordinator in the nation. He has drastically improved this unit that allowed less than 3 yards per carry at home. Stanford right now 120th in offensive success rate, and averaging just 3.84 ypc. Stanford just 2-5 straight up when they are held under 4 yards per carry the last two years and that is exactly what Oregon will try to do here, and I think they’ll be successful. |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech +21 -115 3.5% play This is a great spot for Louisiana Tech coming off a bye here facing LSU a team off a huge win on the road and has two wins over two top 10 teams as dogs. This just seems like the type of game LSU makes fans worry. LSU lost at home last year to Troy 21-24, and Louisiana Tech has played these type of SEC teams well the past two years. They lost 16-17 at South Carolina, and 20-21 at Arkansas in 2015. Against teams that run a quicker offense they haven’t had as much success. LSU looking toward their game against Ole Miss will likely want to get out of this game healthy. Louisiana Tech thinking about an upset. This is Skip Holtz most experienced team in 6 years here, and it’s the first time he has a starting QB and LT back. As an away dog they have gone 10-3 ATS the last 4 seasons. LSU has really struggled offensively ranking 110th in offensive efficiency. Their QB is only completing 45.6% of his passes and they average 333.7 yards per game which includes only 335 against SE Louisiana. |
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09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
UNLV +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD There is some value here with UNLV, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog, and they continue to improve under Tony Sanchez and are poised to get back to a bowl game this year. UNLV is a dominant running team and chooses to do so 67% of the time. This trends well in road games as a dog, and UNLV should be able to get the running game going in this game, because Arkansas State has had trouble stopping the run this year. UNLV is also a very diciplined team with just 3.7 penalties per game compared to Arkansas State who is averaging 11 penalties per game. UNLV was very impressive at USC rushing for over 300 yards in their first game and held USC to only 1 passing TD. Arkansas State has Justin Hansen at QB, but UNLV has already proven they can stop a talented QB or hold them in check. I see a bend but don’t break defense here for UNLV with strengths in the red zone. UNLV’s Armani Rogers might just be better than Hansen. When we look at Arkansas State they have dominated the Sun Belt - 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons, but outside the Sun Belt they are just 4-10 ATS. The Mountain West (UNLV’s conference) is 18-12 vs. the Sun Belt since 2010 +8.7 points per game. Boise State already took down Troy this season by 36 points. |
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09-22-18 | North Texas v. Liberty +12.5 | 47-7 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Liberty +12.5 2.2% play I missed out on the early value on this line at 14.5 as the sharps gobbled that up. Still worth a play here as I feel this line should be around a TD instead. Liberty is getting no respect here, because North Texas is coming off a road win in SEC Country over Arkansas, but largely benefited from +6 TO’s and a punt return TD. Arkansas lost the week before to Colorado State, who we know is one of the worst Group of 5 teams out there. I think that game said more about how bad Arkansas is than how good North Texas is. This is back to bad road games for North Texas, and they go from arguably the biggest win in program history to traveling to Virginia to play a team that was in the FCS last year. North Texas feeling pretty happy with themselves right now but are about to face an opponent that can actually pass the ball. Both these teams can pass the ball, but I give an edge to Liberty at home. Stephen Calvert is off to a great start and had a 29TD to 6 INT Ratio last year. North Texas, Mason Fine had 12 interceptions in road games last year. This will be an exciting game, and while the win over Arkansas was impressive I don’t think they should be a double digit favorite against a team that beat Old Dominion by 42 points to open the year. Worth noting is Liberty also beat Baylor last year asa 30 point dog. |
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09-22-18 | Clemson -15.5 v. Georgia Tech | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
Clemson -15.5 2.2% play Clemson got a glimpse of the triple option last week in a tune up game before Georgia Tech. Not that they really needed it as they have held Georgia Tech to a combined 17 points the last two years. Clemson really feels due for a big win here, and I’m sure they want it as they are not being talked about with the likes of Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama. This just feels like a game where Clemson will come out with a 3 TD dominating victory. |
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09-22-18 | Western Kentucky v. Ball State -2.5 | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Ball State -2.5 2.2% play I was waiting for this line to drop below 3 and I was going to grab it. Ball State looks to revenge last year's 33-21 loss at Western Kentucky. That game was misleading as Ball State led 21-20 with under 5 minutes to play. Western Kentucky starting a backup QB here, and off a 20-17 loss at Louisville which gives us value here as Ball State got beat 38-10 at Indiana. I think Ball State will have more luck running the ball, and if you recall they held Notre Dame on the road in check on the ground. They went on the road to play another P5 opponent last week, and seem to run out of gas. Western Kentucky is poorly coached and lost to Maine this season. |
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09-22-18 | Boston College v. Purdue +7 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 114 h 32 m | Show | |
Purdue +218 2.5% Play Purdue is in desperation mode again after finishing another game with a big mistake int he 4th quarter with a penalty. They are now 0-3 SU despite having the post game win probability. Meanwhile Boston College comes in and are 3-0 SU & ATS and everyone has been hyping this team up all pre-season long and they are backing it up right now, but I think their defense got exposed a bit against Wake Forest last week. This is a tough game for Boston College, to go on the road for the second week in a row facing an 0-3 team from the Big Ten, a conference that is not getting a lot of good press right now. Meanwhile they will face Purdue's offense that is just hitting on all gears right now ranked 11th in the country in yards per play. Purdue also matches up well as they are more successful stopping the run and have a weakness against the pass. Purdue's coaching staff is legit and they are a desperate team right now that doesn't quit. I expect they will come out with a big win here. |
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09-22-18 | Ohio +7.5 v. Cincinnati | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show | |
Ohio +7.5 3.3% play Just 3 weeks ago Ohio would have been a 3 point favorite, but Cincinnati is 3-0 SU & ATS after some big wins including one as a double digit road dog at UCLA to open up the season. They beat Miami Ohio as a pk in rough weather conditions 21-0 and here we are. We are getting serious line value here and Ohio finally looked like Ohio in the second half against Virginia last week. They face a freshman QB here, and they will face a very obvious play strategy as Cinci has run the ball 50+ times in all of their games running it 71% of the time. Ohio is usually stout against the run and their weakness this year is against the pass. This total has dropped by nearly 7 points expecting a lower scoring game I’ll take the dog with a shot to pull the upset. |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | 36-39 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 31 m | Show | |
USC -3 -125 4% PLAY - Buy 1/2 We are getting a ton of value here with USC. USC definitely an overrated team this year and expected to take a step back, but I think they looked good in the first half on the road against Texas before they had too many mistakes. Coming back home facing a Washington State team that they have revenge against should help. Clay Helton is 1-10 ATS as a dog at USC, and we are not in that role here on Friday night against a Washington State team that has not played a team with any sort of offense having faced an FCS foe, San Jose (130th YPP), and Wyoming (104th YPP). USC meanwhile has played 27th, 32nd, and 66th ranked foes. USC following a loss of 14+ points are 17-9 ATS in their next game as a favorite since 1985 and they are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3-6.5 points after just a loss since 1985, and they are 10-2 ATS if they lost as a dog in their last game and are now a home favorite of 3-6.5. Point is USC does not find themselves in the situation as a home favorite by a TD or less very often. Especially following a loss meaning we are getting excellent value on this team right now. USC averaged nearly 6 yards per carry on the road in this match-up last year, and I think they will lean on the run at home and not put too much pressure on JT Daniels to win the game with his arm, but they'll let him take some shots to get up big early. |
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09-21-18 | Penn State v. Illinois +28 | 63-24 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Illinois +28 3.3% play This line is off by 4-5 points in my opinion it should be around 23 or 23.5. We also have an unusual situation here with Penn State traveling on a short week, facing an opponent they have no seen since 2015, and playing at 9pm at night. Penn State also clearly looking ahead to next week's home game against Ohio State while Illinois has a bye. Illinois would love to go into a bye with a well played game here, and I think they can have success in this game by slowing the game down. Penn State's offense with 53ppg is extremely misleading. Trace McSorley has not played very well compared to last season and has really missed the offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead completing 52% of his passes compared to 67% and they haven't played anyone worth speaking of. I think Illinois here can have enough success running the ball whether AJ Bush is out there or not Rivers looked good as the backup QB a week ago. Illinois ranks 28th in the nation averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and Penn State has not been a rock stopping the run. Illinois RB MIke Epstein is really underrated 7.17 ypc. |
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09-16-18 | Colts +6 v. Redskins | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Colts +6 3.3% play |
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09-16-18 | Texans v. Titans +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
Titans +3 5.5% NFL POD |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | 42-37 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
Steelers -4.5 3.3% play |
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09-15-18 | Washington v. Utah +5.5 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
Utah +5 4.4% NCAAF POD @ 10pm et I like the Utes to pull the upset here. Utah has been a tough out for Washington in their last 3 matchups. Utah won by 11, they lost by 7 on a last minute kick return TD, they lost by 3 last year as they gave up 10 points in the final minute. Utah to me has the better QB in this one in Tyler Huntley who threw for 293 passing yards at Washington last year 2 TD’s and 1 INT. Jake Browning has really struggled on the road in his career against good defenses, and Utah should be able to stop the run. They held Washington to 124 yards on the ground on the road last year, and just got done holding run heavy Northern Illinois to 117 and under 3 yards per carry. Utah has an excellent home field advantage and a very good special teams. I expect a close game with Utah being in position to win the game outright. |
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09-15-18 | South Florida v. Illinois +11 | 25-19 | Win | 100 | 42 h 0 m | Show | |
Illinois +10.5 3.3% play @ 3:30PM et Illinois returns 16 starters, and already their offense has scored more points in back to back games 31 and 34 than in any game last year. South Florida has Virginia Tech transfer AJ Bush at QB, who is questionable this game, but the unknown of MJ Rivers, another mobile QB is something I am comfortable with in this game. Illinois game plan is to slow the game down and hold onto the football, and that’s something they have been able to do through two games with 31 minutes time of possession. Illinois is running the ball 65% of the time and they are averaging 6 yards per carry behind Reggie Corbin. South Florida’s run defense is questionable with 5 returning starters on defense they are inexperienced in the front 7. They gave up 192 yards to Elon and 419 to Georgia Tech. South Florida had a 21% postgame win probability last week against Georgia Tech but were lucky to have +3 TO margin and 2 kick off return TD’s as they were outgained by 170 yards on the day. South Florida now has to travel and play in Chicago something they are not used to. Illinois remembers the beat down from last year, but this is a very different USF team that is getting a lot of credit based on last year’s results and a very lucky win last week. Ironically Illinois ranks higher in recruiting classes 3 of the last 4 years. |
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09-15-18 | LSU v. Auburn -9.5 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 38 m | Show | |
Auburn -9.5 3.3% play I like Auburn a lot in this game against LSU. LSU’s offensive line is going to have real difficult time protecting their QB in this game, and they will have trouble scoring points. LSU in week 2 had a 31-0 victory over SE Louisiana, but only put up 335 total yards. In week 1 against Miami they scored 33 points, but only had 296 total yards. Auburn’s defense is better than Miami and this is a true road game for LSU. They will be held to under 250 yards in this game. Auburn’s offense should score 20+ points here. They have a veteran QB in Jarret Stidham. This is a team that put up 420 yards of offense against Washington, but struggled settling for FG’s. They got some confidence in week 2 against Alabama State that will carry over to this game as they scored 63 points and had 567 total yards. |
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09-15-18 | Boise State v. Oklahoma State -2.5 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 46 h 24 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State -2.5 2.2% play @ 3:30pm ET Boise State is a popular dog this week that I'd look to fade. Oklahoma State is a very well coached team under Mike Gundy and he has done a far better job recruiting here compared to Bryan Harsin at Boise State. On average over the last 4 years Oklahoma State has had a recruiting class that is 29 places ahead of Boise State.Oklahoma State is not often a short favorite at home. Since 2008 when they are less than a TD favorite at home they are 9-3-1 ATS. When they are facing a non-conference opponent since 1985 they are 37-18-1 ATS as a home favorite and when that spread is under 10 points they are 15-2 ATS. The Big 12 has also dominated the Mountain West going 13-2 since 2010 while outscoring the Mountain West by 18 points per game. That includes Boise State losing as a favorite to Baylor 31-12 in a bowl game. The 2 wins came from TCU & Utah who are now playing in power 5 conferences. Boise State is just getting a lot of hype while there is this thought that Oklahoma State is rebuilding. Oklahoma State has a senior at QB in Taylor Cornelius and a senior at RB in Justice Hill who can take it to the house on any play. Boise State looked great against the likes of Troy and Uconn, but they are about to see a top 10 passing offense. Boise State has been a good dog cover on the road, but they really have not been scheduling these type of games the last few years facing only Virginia, Washington State & Oregon State the last two years who are from the worst of the Power 5 Conferences. This is a team that lost to Virginia as a 13 point favorite. |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt +14 v. Notre Dame | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 41 h 46 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt +13.5 2.2% @ 2:30PM ET I missed out on the 14.5 earlier in the week, but I think there is still a good amount of line value here with Vanderbilt who sports the better QB in this match-up. Vanderbilt also looks much improved on defense while Notre Dame is really struggling on the offensive line and Brandon Wimbush is simply not a very good throwing QB. Notre Dame offensive line is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in their first two games. Notre Dame lost 2 OL’s to the NFL and they also lost their OL coach. Last week at home they struggled against a MAC team in Ball State who runs a 3-4 defense. Vanderbilt also runs a 3-4 defense and has better talent than Ball State. Notre Dame just not a very good team when they can’t run the ball. Since 2016 season they are just 3-9 straight up when they don’t rush for more than 4.5 yards per carry. I mentioned Vanderbilt had the better QB, and they do with Kyle Shurmur. Schurmur is not afraid of playing on the road and he was great last year with a 16 TD to 2 INT ratio in road games at MTSU, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee. As long as Vanderbilt doesn’t lose the TO margin I see them in position to pull the upset. Vanderbilt’s defense is playing a more aggressive style and has forced 6 TO’s through 2 games and Brandon Wimbush has 1 TD and 4 INT thus far. |
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09-15-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +17.5 | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 88 h 50 m | Show | |
Iowa State +17.5 3.3% play A lot of people are going to be jumping on Oklahoma this week. They have looked dominant in their first two weeks of the season, and there is the "revenge" angle that the media is going to hype up from last year when Iowa State went into Oklahoma and shocked the world. There is just too much value here on Iowa State, a team I can actually see pulling the upset again. They have a very underrated home field advantage, and we are getting value here, because they lost 13-3 to Iowa, but that game was much closer. Matt Campbell has done a fantastic job here and is 11-6-1 ATS as a dog at Iowa State and dating back to his Toledo days in 2012 he is a combined 21-11-1 ATS as an underdog and 7-2 ATS as a double digit dog. He has not lost by more than 10 points since 2016 when he took Iowa State over. This Iowa State defense is legit and has proven they can stop the run. I'm not sold on Kyler Murray to go into a hostile environment for the first time and dominate and that's what he's going to have to do against Iowa State to cover this spread. I also am looking to still fade the AP Preseason Top 10. Doing so over the first 3 weeks results in a 56% ATS history over the last 6 years combined. |
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09-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +33.5 v. Georgia | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 15 m | Show | |
MTSU +33 3.3% PLAY @ 12PM ET This is far too many points for Georgia to be laying against a very good C-USA team in Middle Tennessee with 17 returning starters and an experienced QB. The reason is Georgia looked fantastic last week against South Carolina on the road, and Middle Tennessee has already lost to an SEC opponent of lesser quality in Vanderbilt 35-7. That was a very misleading final as MTSU was only -52 yards in that game, and they always struggle playing their instate rival. Georgia is getting Alabama respect here and I don’t know that it really is deserving. Let’s take a look at Georgia against non-p5 opponents. This year they ran just 60 plays in a 45-0 win over Austin Peay. Last year they defeated App State by a score of 31-10 and ran only 64 plays. Last year against Samford they won 42-14 and only ran 69 plays. IN 2016 they beat Nichols St 26-24 at home, and 35-21 over Lafayette. On the other hand Middle Tennessee covered as +35 in 2015 at Alabama, +7 at Missouri in 2016 winning outright, +10 last year at Syracuse winning outright. They have had their struggles against Vanderbilt, but have played well against other P5 opponents. Georgia also moved this game up to a noon kickoff because of the hurricane so it will be an easier road environment for MTSU and Georgia is going to want this game to be over quickly with a road game at Missouri on deck. |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +6.5 | 41-34 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +6.5 2.2% play Everyone is on Boston College here and Wake Forest is getting absolutely no respect in my opinion. This game has been moved up because of the incoming hurricane and weather conditions won't be ideal with the winds. This typically favors a run first team like Boston College, but I think Wake Forest is prepared and has a better shot of stopping the run than does Boston College. Let's take a look at the facts. Wake Forest's weakness on defense is vs. the pass, and so I like this match-up against BC who has run the ball 70% of the time this year. AJ Dillon is no doubt a great back so far, but the hype is just too much if you ask me. Wake's run defense was impressive last year holding opponents to 3.47 yards per carry at home, 4.31 in conference play while BC was 4.95 ypc ont he road and 4.46 ypc allowed in conference play. BC just got done giving up a ton of yards vs. Holy Cross on the ground, and I expect Wake to have more success running the ball than most people think. In last year's game at Boston College it was Wake Forest who out gained Boston College on the ground 158 to 142. Both team's return their offensive line which are the strengths of the team and I just feel like Wake Forest will keep this game close. |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1.5 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Cardinals -1.5 2.2% play |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Vikings -6 3.3% play |
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09-08-18 | San Jose State +34 v. Washington State | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 104 h 33 m | Show | |
Freddy gave out Oklahoma -20.5 as his free play in week 1 and it was an easy winner moving him to 31-9 ATS over his last 40 Free College Football Picks! Join Freddy for all of his week 2 premium plays! San Jose State +34 1.1% Play The Spartans will head on the road to play at Washington State. I think we are getting 6 points of line value here as Washington State went on the road and shocked Wyoming with a big margin of victory. I know a lot of sharps that were all over Wyoming, and I would have played Washington State. This week is the week you would definitely look to fade them. Washington State in early season games vs. non-power 5 have not done well going 1-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in the first 3 weeks of the season including 2 losses against FCS opponents in 2015 & 2016. San Jose State with 14 returning starters have 2 extra days of preparation for this game having played last Thursday losing to FCS foe UC Davis. |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
Michigan State -6 2.2% Play The game of the year line on this game is 10 points, but last week Arizona State looked great against UTSA, a team many were picking to pull the upset as the cruised to a 49-7 victory. Michigan St meanwhile was in a dogfight against Utah State on their home field winning by just 7 points. I'm not really worried about that Mark Dantonio will have his boys ready to play after an extra day of rest & prep for Arizona State. Michigan State still dominated in stopping the run, and Arizona State is going to be a team that leans on the running game under Herman Edwards. They ran the ball 35 times and threw it just 24 times in week 1 and I expect a similar run first game plan which just doesn't stack up against the Spartans. I think we are getting the better team in X's and O's from the better conference, and the better coach. Worth noting is 1st year head coaches in the power 5 do not do well as underdogs going 72-97 ATS since 2012. The Big Ten has dominated the PAC 12 the last two years going 4-0 SU & ATS last bowl season. Their only 2 losses came when Nebraska lost on the road at Oregon by only 7 points, and Rutgers lost but covered the spread against Washington. Michigan State also has nothing to look ahead to as they'll be on a bye after this week. |
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09-08-18 | Kentucky +14 v. Florida | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 55 m | Show | |
Kentucky +14 2.2% play Kentucky had 3 defensive players turn the NFL down to return for their senior season. The idea? They want to win this game and leave their mark on this program. They nearly did it last year holding a 24-14 lead in the final minutes before losing 28-27 in heartbreaking fashion. Florida is getting far too much respect here in the number after defeating an FCS foes last week in Charleston Southern who went 6-5 last year. Meanwhile, Kentucky actually had a very impressive victory over Central Michigan despite the 35-20 final. Kentucky did not actually cover the spread due to 4 turnovers. Their defense dominated and the rushing game looked better than ever.Florida and Kentucky have their guys back in the trenches. The trenches definitely go to Florida who outgained Kentucky on the ground by 63 yards last season. However, Florida is breaking in a new defense switching to the 3-4 which could create some issues for them in the early going. Kentucky breaks in a new QB in the #1 JUCO transfer Terry Wilson who is extremely mobile. I expect Kentucky to have more success running the ball and they should be able to do a better job defending the run. Kentucky have been close in 3 of the last 4 years against Florida. This is the most experienced Kentucky team that Mark Stoops has had and his defense should be better this season as they have improved the last two years. Florida cracked the top 25, after their offense showed off against an FCS Foe, and I think it's extremely misleading. Florida still does not have a QB. Felipe Franks really does not fit the mold of what Dan Mullen wants to do and I don't anticipate them putting up a ton of points in this one. Expect Kentucky to be right back in the thick of things for the 4th time in the last 5 years. Maybe they can finally break the 31 game losing streak. |
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09-08-18 | UMass +2.5 v. Georgia Southern | 13-34 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
Umass +2.5 3.3% PLAY We backed Umass last week against Boston College and they were pretty much out of the game by the end of the first quarter. I do like what i’m hearing from head coach Whipple and the defensive players who want to rebound. I think they will here against Georgia Southern who is back to running the triple option. Most of what hurt Umass last week was through the air, and they should be able to put up 30+ points in this matchup. This was a matchup they led 48-17 in the first half last year. I see we are getting roughly 9 points of line value based on Umass getting dominated by a BC team that is much improved this year. Umass has done very well on the road in the past and return 9 starters on offense including QB Andrew Ford which is why I backed them at +18 last week. Last year they hung and had chances to win at Tennessee as a +28 dog, and they were in the game against a very good Miss State team as +33 dogs. Remember this is now their 3rd game and they have been battle tested along with one easy game. This is is a coin flip game for them, and I expect they will have a lot of things to apply from games 1 and 2 to this week’s game plan to come up with a win. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10 | 41-17 | Loss | -106 | 66 h 3 m | Show | |
South Carolina +10 2.2% play I talked about South Carolina a good amount in my pre-season podcast and they are a live dog here in week 2 in my opinion. For one their offense is much improved and they have the talent to score on a Georgia defense that has lost some talent. I think they will be able to take advantage of that and put up some points here to stay within striking distance. Georgia also falls under my strategy of fading the AP Top 10. I’m excited to see what the offense dials up and I think Deebo Samuel will have a big game at WR. Georgia lost their 2 best offensive players in Chubb & MIchael and their leadership will be missed. Defensively they lost their best defensive player in Roquan Smith. This is a young Georgia team and it’s their first road game of the season against South CArolina who has a very good home field advantage. Georgia’s road games in SEC play last year were very easy with trips to Tennessee, VAnderbilt, and then Auburn (they got crushed 17-40). |
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09-08-18 | Georgia Tech -3 v. South Florida | 38-49 | Loss | -118 | 62 h 20 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech -3.5 2.2% play Georgia Tech is under the radar after a losing season. They return 8 starters on offense, and their defense got a big upgrade in their defensive coordinator Nate Woody. Ga Tech already pitched their first shutout in game 1 defeating and dominating Alcorn State of FCS. Alcorn State was picked by many to win their conference so it was an impressive victory by the final of 41-0. Georgia Tech also has a senior QB running the offense which is always a big deal for Georgia Tech. Meanwhile USF only has 11 returning starters losing their best QB ever in Quinton Flowers, and their top 2 RB’s and top WR. They also lost their top 3 tacklers and the front 7 on defense lost a ton of talent. That does not bode well for defending the triple option. ACC has done well the last two years facing the American going 4-1, and Georgia Tech is 2-0 all time facing the AAC. The last time South Florida’s defense faced the triple option they faced Navy and gave up 45 points. |
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09-08-18 | Nevada +8.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
Nevada + 8.5 4.4% NCAAF POD I think Nevada is a live dog this week as Vanderbilt is off a misleading 35-7 final over Middle Tennessee their instate rival with Notre Dame on deck. Nevada has a Sr. QB in Ty Gangi who can really be a weapon in the air raid offense that Nevada runs and Vanderbilt rarely sees. Vanderbilt actually allowed MIddle Tenn twice as many yards in the first half, but held onto a 14-7 halftime lead. Overall MIddle Tennessee had 7 trips into VAnderbilt territory and came away with an amazing 0 points. Don’t expect Nevada to fall into the same situation. Vanderbilt should be down this year with just 5 returning on defense and 12 overall. Nevada held their own in a meaningful game a year ago at Northwestern losing 21-30 and I expect they will be in this game with a chance to win it in the end. |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | 24-3 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Florida State -7 2.2% Play Florida State embarks on a new era under Head Coach Willie Taggart. Taggart will bring a new offense that is focused on speed, and more plays. One would think this may be very challenging at the start of a season and it might take Florida State a little to really get in gear with this offense, but the system is meant to be simple and easy to run. Deondre Francois is the perfect guy to run it and he has a ton of experience around him with 8 returning starters on the offense. He's got some really good receivers led by Nyqwan Murray, and Cam Akers at RB is a star in the making. While Florida State's biggest question mark on offense is the new spread up-tempo attack, Virginia Tech has bigger questions. The talent and experience is at least there for Florida State, but with Virginia Tech they have sophomore Joshua Jackson in his second year surrounded by a young supporting cast. Virginia Tech's defense, is in rebuilding mode, and Jackson really did not perform on the road last year in ACC play where he had 2 passing TD's in 4 games to 4 INT's. That came against the likes of BC, Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia. Those 4 teams all had good passing defenses, but Florida State is right in the mix ranking 14th last year and could be better this year. The Virginia Tech offense scored 23, 10, 22, and 10 points in those games and we could see a similar point total tonight around the 16.25 point average, which would lead to a Florida State cover. Florida State's offense is going to play faster so a spread of 7 points is more like 4 or 4.5 and Taggart has proven in the past that his system is simplistic. Oregon put up 77 points in their first game running it last year, and they really didn't have the right QB to run it. I do expect to see some rust early from Francois, but his teammates around him will pick him up and he'll feed off the energy of the Florida State crowd. |
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09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | 41-59 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 20 m | Show | |
Navy -10 3.3% play Navy is coming off a rare poor year and losing year ATS and I expect them to bounce back with their deepest QB group ever. Navy following a losing record ATS under Ken Niumatalolo are 26-13 ATS and following a 5-8 ATS year I expect they will get back to a 9 or 10 win season while contending in the AAC. This is a tough road game traveling all the way to Hawaii, but Hawaii played last week and made the trip to and from Colorado, and have not been good at home going 4-18-1 ATS. I always felt playing Hawaii early in the season was the way to go, but they already spoiled that in week 0 with an outright upset of Colorado State as a 17 point dog, and now we are getting 4 points of value. Ken Niumatalolo also was the QB here and is very aware of the challenges traveling to play Hawaii and the distractions. You really have to be disciplined and there are not many more disciplined teams than a service academy like Navy. I expect them to be ready and they will give this Hawaii defense who lost 6 of their top 9 tacklers last season and did not face a triple option team in 2017. I just don't see them being able to stop Navy having not seen the triple option in 2 years so I expect Navy to put up their usual 40+ points in week 1. |
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09-01-18 | Michigan +1.5 v. Notre Dame | 17-24 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 50 m | Show | |
Michigan +1.5 3.3% play There has been a lot of talk about Michigan and how they do in step up games, but when you look at Notre Dame under Brian Kelly they may even be worse. JIm Harbough is getting beat up in the press, and this is the type of game he absolutely needs and I think he gets with his most experienced roster yet with 17 returning starters and transfer Shea Patterson. The loss of Tarik Black is a big one at WR, but they can overcome that with a star QB in Patterson. Michigan’s defense is arguably the best in the country, and return 9 starters with Don Brown’s system and the defense played better than expected a year ago. Now without Amazon following them around I feel like this is a breakout year for the Wolverines and watch out for Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich to make some noise on the defense in this game against a one dimensional Notre Dame team.
Notre Dame is one dimensional until proven otherwise. They lose their top RB, WR, and 2 offensive lineman to the NFL, and Wimbush returns, but has not impressed in camp following a season he completed less than 50% of his passes. Notre Dame went 0-3 when they could not rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry. 2.72 in losses, 7.19 in wins and that will be the key here as they lost to teams ranking 32nd, 20th, and 78th against the run a year ago. Michigan fully healthy should shut this unit down in my opinion. Notre Dame is also basically a dog here when they are ranked higher in the polls is very puzzling. As I spoke in the off-season fading the ap top 10 pre-season teams in their first 3 games gets you a 56% ATS mark since 2013. Taking out last year’s anomaly it’s actually 60% winners. Notre Dame also off a 8-5 ATS season has failed to follow that up with a winning season under Kelly going 14-24 ATS the following year, 5-9 ATS as a home favorite, and just 8-22 ATS vs. power 5 opponents. The only thing that is helping Notre Dame here is that they are at home, but under Kelly they have actually lost at home 5 times in the last two years alone and to teams like Duke, and Navy so you are not talking about top tier teams. |
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09-01-18 | Appalachian State +24.5 v. Penn State | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
App State +24 2.2% play You will be paying a premium to back Penn State who is #10 in the pre-season polls but will be taking a step back offensively and defensively this year. Penn State returns just 10 starters and I know they have their starting QB back, but they lose their offensive coordinator who changed everything for this program the last two years where they went 19-8 ATS mainly because of the offense. James Franklin was on the hot seat before that going 10-16 ATS. App State is a tough team that plays will in these big games. They lost by only 21 at Georgia last year, a team that played for the National Championship, and nearly beat Tennessee who was ranked in the top 10 in 2016, losing by just 7 points on the road. There are a lot of things to like including Penn State looking ahead ot a big in-state road game at Pitt in week #2. With inexperienced offensive coordinator calling the plays I don’t expect to see the ultra aggressive offensive style of pay. |
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09-01-18 | UMass +18 v. Boston College | 21-55 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 4 m | Show | |
Umass +18 3.3% play I like Umass here who played last week and scored 63 points. They have a ton of talent on offense led by seniors including QB Andrew Ford. They have gone 5-1 ATS vs. power 5 schools the last two seasons and nearly won outright last year in SEC country against the likes of Tennessee and Miss State. They have had all offseason to think about the possibilities of defeating an in-state big brother like Boston College who got a ton of hype in the offseason. So much hyp that their season win total rose from 5.5 to 7 points. They’ll have to contend with a Umass team that is 8-2 ATS the last two seasons as an away dog who will be playing with a ton of confidence following last week’s game. Boston College was a run first team in 2017 and I don’t expect much to change in 2018 as they ran the ball 62% of the time. That keeps the clock ticking and gives us a good chance of covering the 18 with Umass who has a good offense and the potential of pulling an upset. |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse -5 v. Western Michigan | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Syracuse -5 2.2% play I really like for Syracuse to make a statement in this game against Western Michigan. I think we are getting a bit of line value from previous season when Western Michigan competed with the big boys. Syracuse is also an under rated team this year. People forget they knocked off Clemson and went 4-8 with the #2 toughest schedule in the country while dealing with tons of injuries including their QB Dungey who is back in this game playing behind an experienced offensive line. The offense returns 8 starters, and it will be Dino Baber's best offense in his third year here. I actually think they will have a lot of success running and throwing the ball this year. They'll be going up against Western Michigan's defense which is predicted to take a step back this year. They lost their star CB and all 3 of their starting linebackers. Syracuse also has Wagner on deck while Western Michigan has Michigan so you tell me who has focused on this game more in the off season. Syracuse really can't afford to lose this game and need to get off to a good start for a change. I think Syracuse should win here by double digits. The MAC has not done well against ACC going 3-25 since 2010 being outscored by 17.8 points per game. Since 2015 it's gotten worse they have gone 0-12 and have been outscored by 26.1 points per game. This is an unusual situation where the game means more to the Power 5 school than it does to the MAC school. |
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08-30-18 | Northwestern +2 v. Purdue | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Northwestern +2 2.2% play I'm taking the Wildcats as the most experienced team here with a veteran and future NFL QB in Clayton Thorson who should be back after suffering an ACL injury in the bowl game last year. I also peaked at the total given that Purdue's offense will be improved and the defense will take a major step back, but Pat Fitzgerald's teams typically stay under the total early in the season and that line has moved almost 4 points. Northwestern has been a profitable play as a road dog going 10-3 ATS since 2014 season and I think they have the more complete team here. Northwestern's defense returns 7 starters and have ranked in the top 30 in run defense in each of the last 3 years. Northwestern's secondary is experienced after suffering injuries in 2017 and that should help them particularly in the red zone. Purdue does need to run the ball to set up the pass as they were +1 yards per carry and 10 rushing TD's to 2 in wins vs. losses last year. Purdue may be able to pass the ball and score some points, but without balance I don't see them really being able to score TD's. Purdue had 398 yards passing against Northwestern last year and only scored 13 points to put thing into perspective. I really do like Jeff Brohm as a head coach, and in year 2, power 5 head coaches have success, but mostly as under dogs. I'll fade Brohm here as Purdue is getting too much respect and hype based off last year's results when Brohm even admitted he inherited quite a good team in 2017. This year will likely be a step back. |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Wake Forest -6 3.3% play I think we are getting some line value here with Wake Forest at Tulane. I know a lot of folks are high on Tulane with year #3 of Willie Fritz system, but I think they are still a year away. Their defense returned only 5 guys while losing 3 on the defensive line. Wake Forest offense which has broken school records the last two years and started sophomores on their offensive line 2015 returns all 5 of their guys along the offensive line. Wake Forest starting QB Kendall Hinton is suspended for this game, but I really think Wake Forest is going to be able to control the line of scrimmage. Their offense should put up enough points while Tulane which runs the option should be able to move the ball a bit here as well. However, Wake Forest is used to seeing the option. They faced Tulane last year, and they have regularly faced Georgia Tech and/or Army each season. Dave Clawson is a very under rated head coach and what he has done at Wake Forest has been truly impressive. I look to go against the popular dog play here and take Wake Forest to open the season after extra time to prepare for the option and win big. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 12 m | Show |
Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 103 h 3 m | Show |
Eagles +3.5 -11.5 5.5% POD |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars +9 v. Patriots | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 3 m | Show | |
Jaguars +9 3.3% play |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Vikings -5 3.3% play |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Jaguars +7 4.4% NFL POD |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Patriots -13 2.2% play |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Eagles +3 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
Georgia +4 5.5% POD I give a small edge in coaching to Alabama with Nick Saban having an 11-0 record 9-2 ATS vs. former assistants, but note that he was on average a 17 point favorite in those games. No coach ever spent more than 5 years with Saban while Kirby Smart spent the last 8 years up until 2015. Georgia's offensive coordinator Jim Chaney I have over Jeremy Pruitt who takes over Tennessee after this game. Chaney spent years with NFL teams and in the SEC, but more importantly brought his offensive line coach Sam Pittman. Pittman knows how to run the ball and get his line to block. Just ask Arkansas and Brett Bielema how they did after Pittman left. Special Teams is about even as both teams have special kickers and neither team has a punt or kick return for a TD. Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship hit a 55 yarder before the half which changed momentum int he game against Oklahoma. They also blocked a kick to win the game, but Alabama has been known to win games with special teams in this type of game. Georgia's offense vs. Alabama's defense is a big key. Alabama got healthy, but lost another linebacker in their game against Clemson. Alabama has not been as dominant vs. good rushing teams as they have in the past shutting down just 1 of the 5 top 45 rushing offenses they faced. On average allowing 139 yards per game in those 5 games and 7 TD's. Meanwhile Georgia's rushing attack has faced 6 top 45 run defenses and only 1 team in a road game at Auburn shut them down, but their coaching staff made adjustments and they rushed for over 200 in the SEC Championship. Georgia's Jake Fromm is the key here as they can make all the throws that Jarret Stidham did when Auburn beat Alabama with their balance attack. For a true freshman he's been extremely impressive and even getting the confidence of coaches to change the play at the line of scrimmage. If you want to beat Alabama you better have a QB and Georgia certainly does. You can get more info on the Georgia offense vs. Alabama defense in this week's podcast where I gave Georgia in overall slight advantage. Alabama's offense vs. Georgia's defense is another advantage in my opinion for Georgia. On paper Georgia ranked 32nd in stopping the run, but they faced 7 teams in the top 25 in rushing offense. They faced some weird ones too with Georgia Tech's triple option, Oklahoma's #1 offense and RPO spread offense, along with facing Auburn's offense twice. They shut down 4 of the 8 rushing offenses in the top 45 that they faced. Their run defense is much better than it looked a week ago and a big reason why we have them as dogs. Alabama doesn't have a 1,000 yard rusher this year. Meanwhile they still ranked #10 in rushing offense from a ypc perspective and #15 in QB Rating. We saw Clemson really shut down Alabama's offense and we saw Auburn do the same thing in the Iron Bowl. This Georgia defense is really similar in a lot of ways and can do the same thing. Alabama's Jalen Hurts has faced a weaker schedule having faced on average a 66.8 run defense. Georgia has the #6 pass defense to go along with that, and we have seen Hurts struggle to get much going. He's faced 6 top 50 passing defenses. He eclipsed 200 yards 1x, and was held under 121 passing yards 3 times. He ranked 96th in sack % because he'd rather take a sack than throw an interception. I see Georgia getting after him here they held Brandon Wimbush a mobile QB from Notre Dame to 1 yard on 16 carries. Georgia may not have as impressive numbers here or there, but they have gotten better as the season progressed especially on offense. They are coming off a game where they made a major come back, and have a ton of confidence in offense and now they get to face a one dimensional offense. Alabama certainly has the receivers, but Georgia is going to make Hurts beat them and his numbers despite not turning the ball over against the top 50 passing defenses he's faced have not been impressive. Either I think this game comes down to a field goal these two teams really are even, but Georgia is the more complete team with balance on offense and they have faced a tougher schedule. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -5.5 | 26-13 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
RAMS -6 2.2% PLAY |
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01-06-18 | Titans +8 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
TITANS +8 5.5% POD |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -3 v. Clemson | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Alabama -3 4.4% play As a Clemson fan I hate making this play. I think they are really disrepsected being an under dog here, but I think a deeper look at the match-up and it's rightfully so. Not only did Clemson get in a tough situation with the location of this bowl game being in New Orleans which is a major advantage to Alabama, but they have to go up against a highly motivated Alabama team that was almost left out of this playoff that lost to Clemson in last year's national championship. Nick Saban 10-2 in revenge games. Although I don't buy into the revenge angle a lot these days I think it certainly applies here. Clemson, was lucky to win last year's bowl game, and lucky to cover the year before. It took their best two performances of the year offensively in those games and it was Deshaun Watson show. Mike Williams, at WR also was a key aspect of the win last year and they just don't have that guy they can throw it up to down the field. Kelly Bryant has been fantastic, but he's not as much of a thrower as Watson. Look out for Hunter Renfrow to be taken out of this game as he killed Alabama the last two years. Clemson played exceptional in their step up games against Auburn, Louisville, Virginia Tech, and Miami, but 3 of the 4 teams that have played so far lost their bowl games. Virginia lost by 10, Miami lost by 10, and Louisville lost by 4 as a 7 point favorite over an SEC team. Last year it was evident that the ACC was ahead of the SEC. While I still think that's the case front top to bottom. I think the top tier SEC schools are a bit better than the top ACC schools. These two faced two common opponents in Florida State & Auburn. When you look at it Alabama faced them at the worse times. They faced Auburn on the road completely healthy while Alabama was missing 3 starting LB's. They faced Florida State in week 2 when they were ranked #2 in the country and still had their QB. Clemson faced Florida State at home with a freshman QB, and their season goals already lost. They faced Auburn on what I believe was neutral turf and before Auburn really found their offensive identity. Yes, Clemson defense statistically was as good as Alabama, with a better pass rush and slightly more exploitable in run defense. I just don't see it being a good match-up for Clemson here against Alabama and their very good rushing offense which ranked #1 this year. Brett Venables also had issues stopping Alabama's offense the last two years with two different coordinators as Alabama scored 45 and 31 points. Alabama with more than 2 weeks to prepare has been very good offensively since 2012 in 11 games they averaged 35 points per game. These were all games against P5 opponents either in the playoff game or first game of the season. Alabama the last three years played Florida State, Wisconsin and USC to open the year. The health of Alabama, the extra time to prepare, no Deshaun Watson, location favoring Alabama, the revenge factor are all reasons why I like Alabama to come away with the win and cover. |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | 26-19 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 42 m | Show | |
Michigan -7.5 -1.05 This game reminds me a lot of Michigan's bowl game 2 years ago against a Florida team that had a very bad offense and good defense. Michigan defeated them 41-7 in that bowl game. I think the extra time off helps Michigan more than it does South Carolina, and I think Michigan is looking to make a statement. Brandon Peters will start at QB which makes a world of difference as he is more mobile and has a better arm. He is also trying to make a statement that this is his team and that incoming transfer Shea Patterson is not just going to take over. I think it starts with Michigan's defense that should dominate allowing for the offense to be on the field a ton. Michigan's defense has been dominant and is #3 in the country. South Carolina lacks any difference makers on offense after they lost Deebo Samuel vs. Kentucky for the season. They faced two similar top 10 defenses in their last 4 games of the season and put up 10 points against Georgia, and 10 points against Clemson. Michigan is the same type of defense with extra time to prepare against a South Carolina team that fired their offensive coordinator. We have seen how teams have done playing without their coordinators this bowl season. I think we are getting line value here as South Carolina were out gained on the season by 35 yards per game, but managed to go 8-4. They went 0-4 against teams that were able to run the ball which is exactly what I think Michigan can do in this game. With Peters at QB Michigan's running game was as good as it was all year rushing for over 230 yards per game and 12 TD's in 4 games. They were even moving the ball on Wisconsin on the road early in that game before Peters was knocked out with a concussion. When Peters took over it was evident the difference between the two and the offense. South Carolina does have the #37 run defense, but they have faced an average opponent ranking 70.1 in rushing yards per carry in their wins while their losses have come against #48.5. Michigan is #50 having faced a very challenging schedule of 5 TOP 25 run defenses. South Carolina not in that boat and when Michigan did not face a top 25 run defense they won on average by 18.5 points per game. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars v. Titans -2 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Titans -2 2.2% play |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Panthers +4 5.5% POD |
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12-29-17 | USC +8 v. Ohio State | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
USC / Ohio State Over 64.5 3.3% PLAY / USC +8 2.2% PLAY Both teams rank in the top 15 in explosive plays and both offensive strengths are their opponents defensive weaknesses. USC gave up 49 and 35 points the two times they faced a good running team who also had a good running QB. Ohio State has averaged 53 points per game when they don't face a top 50 run defense. Ohio State has faced 4 passing teams ranked in the top 50 in QB rating and gave up on average 36.6 points per game, but it could have been more especially against Oklahoma. Ohio State shut out in their bowl game last year, but scored 44, 42, 42, and 35 in their previous 4 post season games, and USC scored 52 and gave up 49 in last year's Rose Bowl against Big Ten Penn State. On the spread side this is just too much value to pass up with the Trojans against Ohio State. This line is inflated based on what Ohio State did last year in their bowl game, and based on Urban Meyer's success of going 10-3 SU& ATS in bowl games. I understand the line and many people will point to USC's thrashing against Notre Dame who run a similar one dimensional run first offense, but USC was crippled along the defensive line with injuries. They had 20 guys who missed the game with injuries. They got healthier down the stretch and even managed to hold Stanford's rushing to 151 yards in the PAC 12 Championship. It's easier to scheme and game plan against the run and make a QB beat you. For USC's offense they have that QB that will play at the next level and he can carry this team to win the game or even a back door cover. Ohio State has faced 4 top 50 passing teams and they are 2-2 losing by 31 and 15 points. Allowing an average of 36 points per game. Their two wins came against Wisconsin by 6 and Penn State by 1. If Sam Darnold doesn't turn the ball over they should stay in this game. Darnold 17-4 TD/INT ratio down the stretch. Bake Mayfield shredded this secondary and they won at Ohio State by 15, but it could have been a lot worse. The other thing to point out is how bad Ohio State's special teams has been especially in the kickoff return defense and USC has dynamic players back there and rank #8 in KO return efficiency. |
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12-29-17 | NC State v. Arizona State +7 | 52-31 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Arizona State +7 3.3% play We have a unique situation with a coach being fired and sticking around for the bowl game to coach while the new coach is out recruiting. Originally I thought that might be a nightmare of a situation, but the more I am reading the more I am understanding that Todd Graham is respected around this program. He has recruited all of these players who are a tight nit group and want to send their coach out with a win. I think it also helps that Graham has not had to worry about recruiting the last few weeks like most of these bowl coaches. This game is being played in Texas and typically the PAC12 enjoys a big crowd edge against the ACC. They have dominated the ACC since 2010 going 18-2 which really surprises me. As many of you know I have been high on the ACC even calling them the best conference dating back to last year. I don't think they are the best this year, and I think there are some opportunities to fade teams out of the ACC in this bowl season. Looking at what these two teams bring to the table you have to like Arizona State as over a TD under dog. They have faced the better schedule and even have gone 5-2-1 ATS as a dog with 4 outright upsets this year. They beat teams like Oregon, Washington, Utah and Arizona while NC State beat Louisville, BC And Marshall not much to show for an 8-4 season that could have been much better. Todd Graham has also been good in bowl games. In terms of the match-up we have Arizona State's #29 passing attack facing the #43 passing defense, but they are without Bradley Chubb seen working on speed drills in practice while the rest of the team took their normal reps. As I expect he is now listed as doubtful for this game. Chubb is a monster and a one man wrecking crew, but they'll be without him and that is bad news for NC State's defense whose weakness is the green secondary. Ranking #43 is great, but they faced many teams without a pulse at QB. An average opponent ranking #73. Arizona State's offense did that against some very good defenses as well ranking on average 58.9. Just in their wins they have proven they could beat good defenses, Oregon, Washington, Utah to name a few. I look for receiver N'Keal Harry & Kyle Williams to have a big days. NC State, I have bet on a few times this year and I think like many folks we had higher hopes for them. They have a ton of talent, but they just beat themselves. THey are one of the worst special teams units in the country at #104 while Arizona State is #32. Their FG kicker is 9-19 on field goals and Arizona State's red zone offense and defense have an edge here. You'd also expect Arizona State to have some turnovers, but they have lost only 11 all season which is the lowest since Graham has been here. I was tempted to take this game on the money line, but NC State does have talent here with Finley at QB and Hines & Samuels. I can see a field goal game going either way. |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
Wake Forest -3 5.5% POD This game is being played at BOA in Charlotte which gives Wake Forest a home field advantage. I also think there is a lot of value here with Wake Forest who had better results and faced a tougher schedule. On average they ranked #41.2 facing an average opponent ranking #56.1, while Texas A&m ranked #71 facing an average opponent ranking #59.7. A&M went 1-4 against 5 bowl teams while Wake Forest went 4-5 against 9 bowl teams. The ACC also has gone 2-1 SU & ATS in bowl play so far compared to a weak showing for the SEC at 0-1 with Missouri losing to Big 12 Texas as favorites. Even dating back to last year it has been evident that the ACC is better than the SEC. Another edge besides strength of schedule is the fact that Texas A&M has an inexperienced guy calling the shots in Jeff Banks. Banks is the special teams coach as Kevin Sumlin was let go and Jimbo Fisher took over. This has not worked out well thus far in bowl games. Banks special teams unit was a strength of this team ranking #40, but I think that has everything to do with the talents of Christian Kirk. For Wake Forest, Dave Clawson has won everywhere he's gone. He came in and fixed the biggest issue for Wake Forest was their size on the offensive line and has turned this offense around starting in 2015 when he started 4 freshman on the OL. This year this year they allowed 19 fewer sacks and averaged a yard more per carry and QB John Wolford also saw the benefit as he tossed 25 TD's and 6 INT's for the #12 ranked QB rating in the nation. That rating is legit too as Wake Forest faced off against a ton of top passing defenses with an average rank of #43.1. Wake Forest goes up against Texas A&M's #83 pass defense. Wake Forest faced three teams not in the top 50 in pass defense and they scored 43.3 points per game. A&M's pass defense is a bit misleading I'll admit at #83 hailing from the tough SEC, but the SEC was down this year. A&M faced 5 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they went 1-4. They beat an Ole Miss team that was starting a backup QB after Shea Patterson was lost for the season. In those 4 games they allowed 36.6 points per game. A&M has a nice pass rush, but Wake Forest was only sacked 17 times on the year. A&M's offense was hit or miss this year, and they'll struggle in my opinion facing the #25 passing defense. Wake Forest plays an aggressive style and even their run defense is better than the stats state as they faced an average rushing rank of #40.4. A&M ranks 83rd in rushing ypc after facing an average rushing defense 68.2, again the SEC is over rated! A&M generally took care of the ball with only 16 TO's and have a +4 margin, but they had 8 TO's in 3 games which were the only 3 times they faced a top 25 pass defense which Wake Forest is. Wake Forest however +7 in TO margin only turned it over 11 times and 5 of those came in games against top 30 pass defenses. They only turned the ball over 1 time in road games at Clemson and Notre Dame which is extremely impressive. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State -1.5 v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Michigan State -1.5 5.5% POD This Michigan State team has a huge chip on their shoulder as they feel slighted for not being picked for the New Year's Day Outback Bowl. instead their rival who they beat, Michigan was chosen. I think they will give it their best to win and dominate this game and I think they can over a Washington team that has plenty of holes. First of all we need to bring up Washington State's game last year against Minnesota team that had 10 guys suspended or more yet they were unable to win losing 12-17. The previous two years they played in 3 point games against Rutgers so Washington has struggled in the Leach era against the Big Ten. Leach is actually only 4-8 ATS in bowl games and goes up against Dantonio who is a very good coach and will have his team ready for this game. Aside from the motivation I like the match-up here for Michigan State who rank #10 in pass defense and won't have to worry much about a rushing offense as Washington State ranks 129th in the nation in rushing offense. Luke Falk, QB at Washington State will have his hands full here against a press man to man coverage. He'll also be missing his top 2 WR for this game. For MIchigan State's offense it's all about QB Brian Lewerke. I think Lewerke was a bit banged up at the end of the year, but he is a guy who threw for over 885 yards in two games against very good defenses in Northwestern #26th in YPP allowed and Penn State 22nd in YPP allowed. He really only had one bad game against Ohio State on the road in a very bad spot. I would not be surprised to see Michigan State come out throwing against Washington State who will be without their best defensive player in Hercules Maat'fa for the first half for a suspension. They can then use their size late to wear down Washington State's smaller defensive front. Washington State #58 in rushing ypc defense. Michigan State's 3 losses came against very good run defenses ranking #19 on average. When they can run the ball they typically win and Washington showed it in the Apple Cup that Washington State struggles against a well coached physical style opponent. There are other factors I like here as Washington State has the #115 special teams and have turned the ball over 29 times this season. I thought Washington State's defense carried them this year and should keep this game close, but Falk will have some mistakes and they will continue to struggle in these type of match-ups. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State -5.5 3.3% play This is a bit of a square play for me, but I have said all along that I thought the Big 12 was a bit better than the ACC from top to bottom. This to me is a bad match-up for Virginia Tech. Oklahoma State is a balanced offense that probably would have better numbers had their offensive line not been banged up in the middle of the season. Virginia Tech leans on their defense more than the offense, but they only topped 24 points once all season against a power 5 opponent. I don't see how that would get it done against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State outgained their power 5 opponents by 156.3 yards per game and 8 went to bowl games. Virginia Tech outgained their p5 opponents by 29.8 yards per game while 6 are in bowl games. Both teams faced a similar strength of schedule. Virginia Tech faced around a 72.1 opponent while Oklahoma State faced 73. Virginia Tech ranked on average 44.8th in the country in key stats, while Oklahoma State ranked 29.3. Both teams beat up on the weaker teams, but a key look in at who they lost to reveals Oklahoma State is the play for me. Virginia Techs' #13 passing defense only faced 1 top 60 passing offense in West Virginia. West Virginia threw all over Va Tech and outgained them by 123 yards, but lost the game. Mainly, because they turned the ball over and they ranked 100th against the run and 75th running the ball. Oklahoma State ranks #3 in passing, #38 in rushing ypc, and their run defense ranks 17th. They are a more complete football team, and in Virginia Tech's games against top 50 rushing teams they went 1-3 on the year. Those 4 opponents did not have a passing attack even remotely close ranking 61st, 114, 116, and 71st. Oklahoma State lost 3 games and each one came against a top 50 offense. Virginia Tech ranked #84 in yards per play offense. Their QB Josh Jackson is the key, but Oklahoma State has had success against mobile QB's this year holding Kenny Hill to just 15 yards. Jackson has to be able to run the ball for them to stay in this game, and I just don't see it happening. Lastly against common opponents Oklahoma State outgained Pitt & West Virginia in 2 road games by a total of 439 yards while Virginia Tech at home and neutral field were outgained by 114 yards. Virginia Tech's losses came by 14, 18 and 6 points to Georgia Tech. Last year in Fuente's first year they lost 4 games by 21, 14, 10, and 7. So in 7 loses for Fuente they have lost on average by 12.8 points per game and I can see a similar result here with Oklahoma State winning by 10-14 points. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia -1 v. Navy | 7-49 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Virginia -1 4.4% play I really like this match-up for Virginia in their first bowl appearance in 6 years. If this wasn’t being played on Navy’s home field this might be a max POD. Nonetheless, Virginia is about 150 miles away and should still have plenty of fans in the stands to balance it out a bit. The ACC went 3-0 vs. the AAC this year outscoring them by 30 points. Wake Forest (ACC) also beat Temple (AAC) as double digit dogs last year in the Military Bowl. Navy has had an uncharacteristic year and they lost again to Army to end the year. You always expect the service academies to play well in the bowl games in terms of effort, but I think Virginia just may want this a little more. I also will make the statement again having TV cameras around your program constantly is not a good thing. Navy had Showtime following them around and I don’t think it was a coincidence that it was their worst season in some time. Virginia has the defense to stop the option and there is no threat of a pass game with this Navy team. Whether it’s Malcolm Perry who can’t throw past 10 yards or Zach Abey who locks into one guy the Virginia defense knows they have to stop the option. Bronco Mendenhall has always been great at defending the option 8-2 SU & ATS dating back to his days at BYU. They also beat Georgia Tech this year as dogs and held them to 220 rushing yards 78 came on 1 run, while Georgia Tech had to pass a season high 24 times. Only two teams held Georgia Tech to less running yards, Clemson & Georgia, both playing in the college football playoff. LB Micah Kiser will be the difference he had 18 tackles in the game against Georgia Tech. Quin Blanding at S is another NFL future player along Chris Peace at LB this defense has the experience and knowledge to shut Navy down enough to win this game. Navy’s defense is going to have issues here. Their secondary ranks 120 th in opposing QB rating. Virginia’s Kurt Benkert has thrown 17 TD’s and 4 INT’s in wins and 8/6 in losses. He’s had a tough schedule facing 5 Top 30 passing defenses this |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss +15 v. Florida State | 13-42 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
Southern Miss +15 2.2% How can Florida State be a 17 point favorite right now with that offense, an interim coach, and a thinning roster playing without their best defensive player Derwin James. Many will point to their last game against LA Monroe to end the season as they won 42-10, but LA Monroe ranked 128th in YPP defense while Southern Miss ranks #31. Let’s also talk about Conference USA who is 4-4 in the bowl games this year. They are 1-4 on the year against ACC, but their weaker teams faced off. Their 2 bowl teams MTSU & Marshall went 1-1. Marshall lost to NC State by 17 points. Southern Miss is better than Marshall, and NC State is better than Florida State having beaten them at Florida State. Hard to gauge if Florida State is going to be interested. I have no doubt they like the interim coach Odell Haggins, and the players will want to look good for Taggart, but how much effort is this coaching staff really putting in right now against Southern Miss who is much more excited to be here and should have the crowd edge here. The keys to the game are whether or not Southern Miss can stop the run. Florida State’s offensive line has not been very good and Southern Miss had 94 tackles for loss this year. They rank #30 against the run and have beaten 5 teams with better rushing averages than Florida State. Southern Miss also shut down the two power 5 teams they faced in the running game holding both Tennessee and Kentucky to under 3 yards per carry. I think they can have similar success in this game. For Southern Miss offense they rely heavily on big plays and the steady running game of veteran Ito Smith. Florida State is definitely vulnerable against big plays especially without Derwin James as we saw last year. I think FSU will stop Ito Smith, but could allow some TD’s on big plays that will allow Southern Miss to stay in this game. Overall Florida State’s wins have come against very poor opponents with an overall average ranking of 75.7 when I average their ratings for (YPP O, YPP D, Rush YPC O&D, QB Rating O&D), and their losses came against an average 37.6. Southern Miss is a balanced team ranking 38.8 and has strengths in the right areas to contend in what I figure would be a low scoring game. |
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12-26-17 | Utah -6.5 v. West Virginia | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Utah -6.5 2.2% play Even though we are playing a premium to back Utah and Kyle Whittingham who is 10-1 in bowl games I am fine doing so. Mainly, because it's just a bad match-up for West Virginia who is playing without their QB Will Grier. There is a big drop off in my opinion with Chris Chugunov. They will also be playing without two offensive line man and RB Justin Crawford who rushed for 1,061 yards this season. The fact that Utah is also strong against the pass ranking #28 in opposing QB rating is a big deal. They are strong along the defensive line, and right now that is West Virginia's weakness heading into the bowl game. In fact in their 5 losses they faced an average pass defense ranked 53.6 while in their wins they faced an average pass defense ranked 108.5. Utah should be able to score points and with a high total of 57 it makes me like the 6.5 even more. Utah's offense is a bit under the radar as they haven't been healthy much of the season. When they have Tyler Huntley at QB and Darren Carrington at WR they are a different team. Both will play in this game. Utah also has a fantastic shot at running for over 150 yards where they average 40 points per game this year in 5 games they achieved that. Honestly, they probably would have more if Huntley was healthy more this year. The only time they did not eclipse 30 points was in a road game at USC where they lost 27-28 by going for 2. West Virginia's run defense is the big weakness. They have given up 170 or more yards in 8 out of 11 games. You bet Whittingham will take advantage of that weakness and Zack Moss can have a big day. Speaking of weaknesses. West Virginia #109 in special teams going up against Utah who ranks #12. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
49ers +4.5 5.5% POD |
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12-24-17 | Falcons +6 v. Saints | 13-23 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Falcons +6 -115 2.2% play |