Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-05-13 | Ohio State v. Northwestern +7 | 40-30 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
Northwestern +7.5 -115 4.5* Showdown
Northwestern is very very under rated and they have a very good coach. Some may say that Pat Fitzgerald is a top 10 coach giving what he's done with this program. Northwestern had a bye week and before that they had Maine and Western Michigan so there has been plenty of time for this team to prepare for the game of their lives. That's exactly what this is because Ohio State is off 17 straight wins under Urban Meyer and gaining position in the polls. With ESPN Gameday going to Northwestern on Saturday night it would be huge for this program to pull the upset. Ohio State also just came off a big game against Wisconsin and when you look at the common opponent for these two (road trip at Cal) both won and put up very similar numbers. This is just the second road game for Ohio STate and in their first they allowed Cal to move the ball for 503 yards. Ohio State's defense is still a huge question mark. Most of it was over the young front 7, but they played well last week while the secondary played poorly as Abbredaris had over 200 yards receiving. Many feel Northwestern has the better offense over Wisconsin and I think it's close. Northwestern will present a completely different challenge with a QB that can make plays with his feet and a talented back in Venrick Mark and Treyvon Green. Kain Colter is the runner at QB while Trevor Siemian has the big arm. On the flip side I think Northwestern is experienced on defense in the right spots in the front 7. Their DE Tyler Scott leads the Big 10 in sacks and the linebackers are full of veterans that should get some key stops. Overall this will be the toughest road challenge for Ohio State and I truly think Northwestern can come up with the big upset, but with this spread moving to a TD I'll buy the 1/2 point because Northwestern is 8-3 ATS following a bye week. |
|||||||
10-05-13 | North Carolina State v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 55 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +7.5 3.3* play[/b]
This is a huge in state rivalry game for NC State and Wake Forest, but NC State seems to think they are a bit above it even though they have lost 6 straight games on the road in the match up. Wake Forest has won 4 of those as under dogs and will look to continue that trend on Saturday as they look to turn their season around with a huge win over NC State. I think Wake Forest is under rated as their defense has played outstanding behind the dominating NG Nikita Whitlock. This defense is 37th in pass defense and 12th in takeaways. Meanwhile NC State's offense has yet been able to get a consistent passing attack going with QB Pete Thomas only throwing for 1 TD and 5 interceptions in the process. NC State will mostly rely on the run for 60% of their play calls but Wake Forest at home is up to the task to stop the run and should remain in the game most of the way. NC St has yet to go on the road this year and though they played Clemson well on a Thursday night they are a different team on the road with an inexperienced QB against a very under rated defense that needs a win. Wake Forest is capable of moving the ball with a good game plan and NC State is allowing 80% red zone possessions to result in a TD. |
|||||||
10-05-13 | East Carolina v. Middle Tenn State +7.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 54 m | Show | |
MTSU +7.5 3.3* NCAAF Play[/b]
East Carolina comes off arguably their biggest win in program history of recent memory as they won on the road against North Carolina as a 12.5 under dog dominating 55-31 so of course this spread is going to be inflated regardless. MTSU just lost on the road to UNC and got dominated against BYU last Friday. However, an extra day of rest can only help them and they did lead BYU 10-7 after the first quarter. East Carolina's defense has played well against the run, but they have not faced a team that has been capable. I'm not saying MTSU is capable but they have shown at times they can beat you with the running game with nearly 300 yards against FAU. East Carolina's real weaknesses are in the secondary as they lack a pass rush and have issues on third down and in the red zone which makes it hard for me to see them as more than a TD favorite. Logan Kilgore is an under rated QB that had 3 tough road games against very good secondaries. He's is due to rebound in this home game as they pass to set up the run. Meanwhile MTSU's defense has been great forcing 16 turnovers on the year and have been great on third down allowing 34% conversions at home and 28% red zone TD conversion percentage at home. Part of the reason they have been able to force turnovers is the play of the defensive line which will be able to get pressure on East Carolina that is ranked 110th in allowing sacks on 8.47% of drop backs. MTSU has a 11.76 sack % at home this year. |
|||||||
10-05-13 | Georgia v. Tennessee +11 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 54 m | Show | |
Tennessee +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; TN +360 1* BONUS[/b]
Georgia comes off a huge win against LSU and there is no doubt they are due for a let down in this spot. It may not happen and they may win this game, but at some point the injuries this offense has had has to catch up with them. They've been lucky to play some defenses in their own building but now losing Todd Gurley they have some depth issues at RB. I'll get to why I like Tennessee this week in a second, but more importantly I'm just not a big fan of Aarron Murray. Murray is over rated and there is a reason why he's never discussed as a big time NFL prospect. Murray's QB rating is 45 poitns less on the road over his career and though he played well against LSU it was evident LSU's defense is down after losing several NFL prospects a year ago. Murray is in his 4th year as the QB and he's never had to go on the road against the top SEC defenses like Alabama, LSU or Florida and we know how poor he's played against top teams. His one road game against a good defense last year was against South Carolina and the offense struggled putting up just 7 points. Tennessee is flying under the radar and I really like what this defense is doing. They are strong in the front 4 led by some veterans and the secondary already has 11 interceptions 10 of which have come at home. In Murray's only road game this year he was sacked on 12% of his drop backs so the offensive line is suspect on the road. Tennessee is a dangerous opponent right now for Georgia, because they are strong up front on offense too. Actually Georgia's own coach is calling this offensive line the best in college football as they feature 4 future NFL linemen. Unfortunately for Tennessee they have young receivers and an a first year QB in Justin Worley. However, the running game has been great averaging 5.52 ypc this year behind senior Raijon Neal's 5.85 ypc and Marlin Lane's 6.22. Georgia may have stopped LSU at home, but they allowed some pretty big passing yards in the process. This Georgia front 7 is hardly a rock against the run they allowed their last 4 opponents in 2012 to run for 302, 306, 350, and 239 yards and their first two ran for 197 and 226. Tennessee can move the chains on the ground and take chances through the air on play action for a balanced attack. That's one of the things Worley has been doing is being more aggressive down field which could create issues for Georgia's defense on the road. Worley should have plenty of time because the offensive line was built to pass protect and Georgia's pass rush is not what it was in previous seasons. Tennessee looked good on the road against Georgia losing 51-44 a year ago as 13.5 point under dogs and I think this defense is better while Georgia's is worse so I think they can actually win this game and shock a ton of people in the process. |
|||||||
10-05-13 | Michigan State v. Iowa | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
Michigan State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Michigan State lost a heart breaker in over time at home last year which is something they clearly remember. Now with the solid win for Iowa over a very bad Minnesota team that was over rated to begin with and a Michigan State loss @ Notre Dame with the offense struggling big time. This game is about running the ball and stopping the run with both defenses ranked in the top 10 with solid running games. Connor Cook has to bounce back for Michigan State at QB following his first road test at Notre Dame. I believe Cook will bounce back after a bye week as this kid has plenty of confidence and the arm to make any play on the field. In the bye week he worked a lot on his foot work and I think we will see it early against Iowa. Cook also has taken care of the ball without throwing an INT. Michigan State sports the better defense in this one and they are a bit more balanced where as Iowa is 9th in the country with a 66% run play call percentage. Michigan State is #2 allowing just 1.9 ypc. Iowa's success running the ball has set up 3rd and short, but against Michigan State they will have to throw the ball which is not going to be easy. This pass defense is better than in years past as they finally have a guy that can get to the QB on his own in Shilique Calhoun. Iowa does not have the receivers to draw penalties like Notre Dame did as Michigan State caught unlucky breaks from the referees. Jake Rudock is going to have a hard time completing anything the way Michigan State plays defense with press coverage and he already has 4 interceptions. Both defenses have played one quality offensive opponent this year, MSU played Notre Dame while Iowa played Northern Illinois. Michigan State completely dominated the line of scrimmage on the road against Michigan State while Iowa hosted Northern Illinois and allowed 438. What was also hidden in the Notre Dame game was how well this Michigan State offensive line played. They're ranked 20th in least sack% and only allowed 6 hits on Cook. Iowa's front seven is also very good, but with the week of preparation it makes Michigan State a must play as they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Special teams is also an advantage for the Spartans as they feature an All-Big10 punter in Sadler who is great at pinning teams inside the 20. |
|||||||
10-04-13 | BYU +6 v. Utah State | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
BYU +6 3.3* FNL BYU's defense is good enough to keep them in every game and last year they held Chuckie Keeton to 3 points. I think they will have a little bit of a harder time but Keeton has yet to prove he can put up big points on good defenses (see USC). It has to do more with the talent around him and BYU should be int his game throughout. 6 points is just too much for a dominant defense although BYU's offenses relies on the running game too much they do get Cody Hoffman back this week who is an NFL caliber receiver. Utah State may have the better QB here, but BYU clearly has the better defense and these two teams know each other well being that this an instate rivalry. I don't view the home field advantage to be a huge impact here and BYU will still be able to stop the Aggies on third down as they are defending allowing just 25% conversions on third down while Utah State just allowed San Jose to convert on 50% last Friday. Just too much value here for Mendenhall's defense led by NFL talent with Van Noy leading the way.
|
|||||||
10-03-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns -3 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Browns -3.5 3.3* play The Browns are still flying under the radar. This defense has been dominant against the run and pass at times and now that Norv Turner has cut loose Brian Hoyer and they got Josh Gibson back to go along with Jordan Cameron this offense should continue to put up points. The Jets turned the ball over a ton of times vs. the Bills in their only road game and they still could not come up with the win as the Jets put up 27 points. The Browns actually have a more capable offense and I think the Bills will be in huge trouble. E.J. Manuel was sacked 8 times on the road against the Jets who have a great defensive front, but the Browns are quite similar with Joe Haden being a dominant corner back. In the end I view this Browns team as a close bunch that was able to win on the road at Minnesota despite the Trent Richardson trade. Now they get a home game on a Thursday night where they'll want to show case their talents.
|
|||||||
09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins +7 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
[b]Dolphins +7 +100 4* NFL POD[/b]
The Dolphins have cashed a ton for me this year and I did not expect to get this kind of value here again on Monday night football, but getting a TD against a Saints team that is flawed is something I can't turn down. The Saints are a one dimensional offense that can be beat with a good pass rush which is something the Dolphins clearly have. The Dolphins are actually also top 10 in some key passing defense categories including opponent completion %, opponent yards per attempt, and opponent QB rating. Now the Saints defense has been great allowing 13 points per game and has been tough to score on in the red zone. However, the Falcons are struggling to find consistency, the Cardinals can't move the chains and the Bucs are also struggling on offense. Those are the three teams the Saints have faced this year and any defense would find success in that situation in my opinion. In come the Dolphins who seem to have the perfect balance of running and passing on offense. Ryan Tannehill is enjoying a great start to this season ranking 6th in completion percentage and 10th with a 94.3 QB rating. What is most important is he's 3rd in moving the change picking up 50% of his third down attempts, and he's #1 in the red zone orchestrating an offense that succeeds with a TD 87% of the time. The Saints defense will be challenged tonight and they will give up some points. I think the Dolphins will have a shot to win this game because this is the best pass rush Brees sees all year and I don't think the Dolphins are prone to give up the deep quick scores that Brees uses to blow out teams on a Monday night. Close win for the Saints 23-20, but we will cover the spread. |
|||||||
09-29-13 | New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -2.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Falcons -2.5 3.3* play The Patriots are getting priced here like they would be the better team on a neutral site and I'm not so sure that's possible right now despite the Patriots being 3-0 and the Falcons being 1-2. The Patriots could have lost 2 of those 3 games and were lucky to face two rookie QB's and Josh Freeman who has since been benched for a rookie. I don't need to introduce Matt Ryan to you, but he is one of the best QB's at home over his career. Falcons are under valued here and could easily be 3-0 with heart breaking losses against the Dolphins and the Saints in the last minute. The Saints and Dolphins are both quality teams, but the Falcons can not afford to go 1-3 and lose to the Patriots here at home and I don't think they will. The Falcons are also 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss.
|
|||||||
09-29-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +9 | 37-3 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Jaguars +9 3.3* Early Bird It is hard for anyone to get excited about backing the Jaguars and I completely agree, but being successful in NFL betting is about catching value and taking teams at the right situations and I believe this is one of those. First of all when was the last time a team went back to back weeks on the road with a 20 point swing on the spread? I don't know if it has ever happened but 20 points is a big difference when you are on the road and part of that is due to the fact that the Jaguars have been a doormat and the Colts just went into San Francisco and dominated the entire game. However, that gives us value because most bettors will only look at the recent game when betting the next and that's why the majority of people are not successful betting especially in the NFL. The other thing I like about this game is the Colts are in one of the classic sandwich games. They just came up with a huge win and nowt hey are due for a let down as they look ahead to a bigger game as they host the Seahawks next week. This is also a division game which means the Jaguars know the Colts well in fact they beat the Colts last year in Indianapolis and I wouldn't be shocked if it happened again. The Jaguars get Gabbert back at QB and Mercedis Lewis and TE and MJD continues to say he's 100% which is a big help. The Colts are 26th in run defense allowing 4.7 ypc so I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball a bit here.
|
|||||||
09-29-13 | NY Giants +5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Giants +4 4.4** play The Giants were the largest public play last week and the public got beat 38-0 as the Giants played the worst game in recent memory. The Chiefs went on the road to start 3-0 after beating the Eagles in dominating fashion which has given the public the desire to play the Chiefs this week. A closer look at the Chiefs games and you can see how they are 3-0. They had field position advantages because of turnovers and penalties in the Eagles game that any team would win off of and scored just 17 points in their home game against Dallas while beating the Jaguars is nothing to brag about. The Giants stock is rock bottom and that's usually when teams cover in this league and a big win over a good team is exactly what this Giants team needs to climb out of the hole they are in and they have been notorious for coming up with this exact same win year in and year out. Giants are 7-2-1 ATS int heir last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
|
|||||||
09-29-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
Texans +2 5.5* NFL POD Houston went on the road and looked bad at Baltimore while the Seahawks dominated the Jaguars and 49ers in their last two games. There couldn't be more hype on the Seahawks right now they are covering spreads and dominating teams. We actually had the Panthers in week 1 and should have covered that game against Seattle, but Carolina wasted a lot of opportunities that I don't think Houston will. 60% of the public is backing the Seahawks on the road who still have yet to prove to me that they can win with their QB on the road especially against a top 5 defense which they are about to face on Sunday. Yes the Texans are still a top 5 defense despite all of the points they have given up which have been the result of some bad luck and some poor team play. They gave up a punt return TD and a defensive TD to Baltimore and committed 14 penalties which cost them 14 points and more when you factor in what the penalties did to drives. Being back at home should change that and I think we are getting value on this line because of how they have lost and given up points.
Houston's defense is actually ranked 2nd in yards allowed. Seattle has relied on their defense and their running game will have its hands full vs. Houston's front 7. I still think Houston is better on both sides of the ball this year from their draft pick of Deandre Hopkins and the return on defense of Brian Cushing. In the end this is Arian Foster's game and I'm predicting him to have a big one. The Seahawks allowed 5.2 ypc at Carolina and are ranked 18th on the year and Houston is arguably the best rushing team in the league when they commit to it with Foster and Ben Tate leading the way. I truly believe this is the game the Texans get back to the basics and dominate this game. They have to feel like they are getting slapped in the face being under dogs in their own building. Houston is 19-7 ATS int heir last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. |
|||||||
09-28-13 | Stanford v. Washington State +9.5 | 55-17 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 0 m | Show | |
[b]Washington St +10 -120 4.5* PAC12 GOW[/b]
Stanford won this match up by just 7 points at home last year while Washington State was 9 yards away from forcing over time. Stanford actually has a look ahead game hosting Washington the next week who beat them at home last year, but Washington State is no easy task. First of all they'll play the game at Century Link Field which if you pay attention to the NFL you know it's the most difficult place to play as a road team. Stanford's offense is balanced, but in now way is it dominant and it needs it's offensive line to play well, but in that type of environment it could be tough especially since this game will be on ESPN. Washington State is big and strong up front and ranked 10th in total defense right now. This team is legit they played well at Auburn, but turned the ball over otherwise they would have won and they went on the road and beat USC and basically shut them out if it weren't for a turnover in their own territory I doubt USC would have scored that TD. Stanford had just 256 yards last year and Mike Bresko's defense is getting a lot of credit right now and rightfully so. The defense actually returns 9 of their 11 starters and is ranked 11th in third down defense where Stanford could have some issues. The biggest reason why Washington State will win or lose this game will be of course the play of QB Connor Holliday who comes in with a lot of confidence completing 75% of his passes over the last 2 games. He's thrown 8 interceptions on the season, but at home he's been much better 9TD to 3 INT's and a 169 QB rating. Stanford has also forced only 4 turnovers this year while Washington State has been much more opportunistic. Even if Stanford gets out to a dominant start Washington State has enough passing offense to come in for the backdoor cover. |
|||||||
09-28-13 | Florida v. Kentucky +12.5 | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 59 m | Show | |
[b]Kentucky +12 3.3* play[/b]
Florida came off possibly the worst week any team could have and come into this game banged up. First of all they lost their heart and soul of the defense in Dominique EAsley in practice who is out of the year with a torn ACL and on offense they lost Jake Driskell to a broken leg in the first quarter a week ago. Tyler Murphy was great in relief, but coming in without the pressure because you never thought you would play is different than preparing and then going on the road. There is a reason why Murphy was passed over at Florida many times to play QB and I don't see him being able to take advantage of Kentucky's main weakness which is their secondary. Other than that Kentucky held their own and really should have had a chance to beat Louisville at home. Now they have had 2 weeks off to prepare for this game in what should be a low scoring battle. Florida is #1 in time of possession but they are not getting points out of that which makes the 12 point spread even juicier. I will most certainly be teasing it with another play if I can find value. Florida is only 7-17 on TD's in the red zone for a 41% success rate meanwhile Kentucky has been great in 3rd down defense allowing opponents to convert just 23% of the time and they shut down Louisville's offense in the red zone allowing just 2-5 which means Florida will most likely spend their time kicking field goals when they get there. Losing Easley on defense is a huge loss and Kentucky runs an up tempo which should catch Florida off guard. I wouldn't be shocked to see Kentucky have Florida on the ropes with a chance to win this game late. Their freshmen RB is getting a lot of hype averaging 9.3 ypc is Jo Jo Kemp and Kentucky's MLB Avery Williamson is leading the SEC in tackles. Florida forced 6 turnovers to get passed Tennesse, but Kentucky will take better care of the ball. |
|||||||
09-28-13 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +14.5 | 45-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Arkansas +14.5 3.3* play
Arkansas has to be mad and angry that they choked away a 24-7 4th quarter lead last week against Rutgers on the road. The road?? What's that?? That's something Johny Manziel and the Aggies have not seen this year and now they will go on the road to play a physical and mad team. I don't like the match up for the Aggies for a few reasons. First of all people still forget how many players this A&M team lost from last years great team. It was a ton on both sides of the ball and it's been hidden in the early game playing their first 4 at home, but now they are going to struggle a bit here today. How do you stop Johny Manziel? Have a pass rush! Arkansas has shown in multiple games they can get to the QB. Arkansas has 14 sacks and is 8th in the nation in sack%. Manziel on the road vs. a good pass rush spells trouble in my opinion. Manziel played well against Alabama because they never have a strong pass rush in fact the Crimson Tide are 106th in sack % getting to the QB just 2.83% of his drop backs. His other match ups were against SMU (64TH) and Rice (37th) and Sam Houston, but those were all at home. This Arkansas crowd will help Arkansas get a push and force Manziel into some mistakes in his first road game, because right now this team is just too confident and they shouldn't be. Partially because they have not held a team under 5 yards per carry this season. I mentioned the 4 teams they faced above and they allowed two of them to average over 6 yards per carry and they allowed that to happen in their own building (Kyle Field) which was getting hype on ESPN as one of the loudest stadiums. Give me a break. Now they go on the road to face Arkansas behind Bret Bielema who is known for wanting to ground and pound. Arkansas is running the ball 70% of the time good for 8th in the country and they are doing it well averaging 5.07 ypc behind Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. Oh in case you were wondering Arkansas has only allowed 3.01 ypc in their run defense and their pass rush won't allow Manziel to scramble and make those down the field plays he has been used to. |
|||||||
09-28-13 | LSU +3 v. Georgia | 41-44 | Push | 0 | 39 h 28 m | Show | |
LSU +3 3.3* Showdown Play[/b]
This is a very interesting matchup with Zack Mettenberger going back home to Georgia where he started his career. Mettenberger has been excellent this year giving LSU some balance on offense and arguably Les Miles best offense since he's been here. It's still early but Mettenberger is completing 65% of his throws for 11.3 yards per attempts has 10TD to just 1 INT and is backed by Jeremy Hill who is a bruiser at 235lbs that is averaging 8.36 yards per carry this season. Georgia has their own star QB in Aaron Murry, but Murray is just 2-6 in his career vs. Top 10 opponents and I think he goes 2-7 and this is the game where he finally misses his top receiving weapon Malcolm Mithcell who was lost in the season opener. Both teams come into this game in similar teams. Both are led by a balanced attack and experience on offense with a young defense and it's going to come down to who has the better defensive coaching, who can stop the run to set up third and longs and who can win the special teams battle. In my opinion LSU is the answer to all of those questions. While LSU is very green on the defensive side of the ball they are definitely more talented and have had more success thus far. Clemson and South Carolina were able to do whatever they wanted in the running game and I would argue LSU has more weapons in the passing game as both Odell Beckham Jr and Jaruis Landry have improved their route running and are NFL ready. LSU can force this team into 3rd and long they have a big advantage as Georgia was just 10-28 on third down conversions vs. Clemson and South Carolina. LSU is 32nd right now in stopping the run and is better than Clemson and South Carolina so you know Georgia will have their hands full. Special teams is a no brainer after Georgia gave up 14 points to North Texas on special teams and LSU perennially has a great group on special teams. Turnovers and 3rd down conversions will also play a key role. Georgia and LSU have had issues getting to the QB so there is no edge there as both lines have protected their QBs too. Where LSU has the advantage is in the red zone where they are allowing just 50% TD's to Georgia's 70%. LSU also has forced 6 turnovers while Georgia has only forced 3. |
|||||||
09-28-13 | Iowa -1.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 39 h 28 m | Show |
Iowa -2 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I have watched all of Minnesota's games this year except one and they have to be the luckiest 4-0 team. We lost ATS in two of those games, but I'm going heavy on Iowa to change that this week. First of all Minnesota has to be able to run the ball to win games and Iowa's run defense is just a perfect match up for us to back, because they are physical enough to shut it down. Iowa is a top 30 run defense right now allowing just 3.36 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground. That has allowed the Iowa defense to be excellent on third down holding opponents to 24% conversions and in the red zone they have only allowed 1 TD on the season for a 16% TD percentage on red zone possessions. Minnesota is a one dimensional offense that won't be able to consistently put up points on the board. Iowa on the other hand although they have not been great at one thing on offense they have shown at times they can do both. Over the last two games Jake Rudock has gained some confidence completing over 60% of his throws for 4 TD's and 0 INT's. David Fales showed just how leaky Minnesota's secondary is completing 22-35 passes for 439 yards and had a 185 QB rating, but his team just came up with too many mistakes. Iowa has several groups of running backs averaging over 4 yards per carry to balance the attack. They are averaging 50% conversions on third down and they are +2 in turnover margin. Minnesota was not just bad against San Jose State they allowed both UNLV and New Mexico State to complete 70% of their passes. They also allowed UNLV to run for 193 yards averaging 5.68 ypc and Iowa's running game is the best they have seen this year to date. |
|||||||
09-27-13 | Utah State v. San Jose State +10 | 40-12 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
[b]San Jose State +10 3.3* play[/b]
We backed both of these teams and watched both games last week as Utah State covered on the road against USC while San Jose State looked awful on the road vs. Minnesota. I think we are getting line value here for the home dog on Friday night on ESPN and I'll back San Jose State up. They were in the game against Minnesota as David Fales was able to move the ball, but untimely turnovers were the main reasons for not having a chance to win as it cost them countless times. This defense also did a tremendous job on stopping the run on 1st down, but couldn't after that. Minnesota features a power running game and a big offensive line that Utah State does not. Don't get me wrong Utah State should be able to run the ball tonight, but they are not known for their physicality and I like San Jose State's defense to have a rebound game against the run especially at home. Utah State's secondary is very vulnerable despite the stats. They have not faced a team that can pass since week 1 where Tyler Wilson lit them up for 302 yards and 2 TD's while this secondary has not picked off a pass all year. DAvid Fales completed nearly 80% of his passes last year on this defense and had 3 TD and 0 interceptions, but the biggest issue was that he took 13 sacks. With 4 of the 5 starting offensive linemen returning I think they remember that game because they allowed 26 all year and half came in one game. I think it was just bad preparation and this offense will be better here. At the end of the day talk about a rough schedule for Utah State. After a tough loss on the road to a physical defense they have to travel on short rest to play San Jose State who wants revenge from last years game where they played right with them. Not to mention Utah State has got to be looking ahead on their schedule as they host BYU next Friday night and then face Boise State. San Jose State still has some value and is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games. |
|||||||
09-26-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams +3.5 | Top | 35-11 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rams +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
Wow, the Rams have really been the one team I've backed multiple times that have let me down, but I think this is a make or break game for them and they always seem to play the best at home and Colin Kaepernick is getting figured out around the league. Maybe the game last week against the Colts was a hang over from their tough loss against the division rival Seahawks but usually teams in that scenario show a bit of life late in the game, but the 49ers did not. The last two games he is averaging less than 50% completions and has 0 TD to 4 interceptions. Now he goes into a hostile environment low confidence to face the Rams who had the leagues best pass rush which is about to show up in the loud dome. The Rams already played the 49ers tough last year tying in OT in San Francisco and winning at home in OT 16-13. 49ers are just banged up right now without Vernon Davis the offense has flat out failed. On defense it's a short week of preparation and they go on the road without their best two players in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. Teams do not just turn on a switch and win a big game like this. Over the rest of the season the 49ers will regroup but not tonight. The Rams are still under valued here and if they did not start slow in previous games would have a winning record. I look for them to get a quick start behind the home crowd tonight as Sam Bradford works the spread with precision for an opening possession TD. Rams came out with a big win last year at home on a Thursday night over the Seahawks and I think they show up again tonight. |
|||||||
09-26-13 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
[b]Virginia Tech +7 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
Virginia Tech nearly lost to both East Carolina and Marshall out of Conference USA so we are getting value in their first game vs. the ACC especially since Georgia Tech had an impressive win over UNC last week and dominated Duke. With Vad Lee at QB they are calling him the "most complete" QB that Paul Johnson has had to run his triple option, but I see a lack of explosive plays with his running game and his 7TD to 1INT are nice passing the ball, but against an FCS opponent and Duke and North Carolina who combine for just 12 sacks and 38 tackles for loss I just don't see them in a 3rd in a long situation where he's going to get pressured. Facing Virginia Tech and Bud Foster's experienced defense will be different for the youngster. Foster's defense already has 16 sacks and 37 tackles for loss led by James Gayle and JR Collins. Virginia Tech has the experience at linebacker to make the tackles too in Jack Tyler who had 17 tackles in last years match up. This defense is better than last year and I"m still not sold on this Georgia Tech offense behind Lee. Meanwhile an interesting development offensively for Virginia Tech has been the emergence of Chris Mangus who has averaged 6.5 ypc in the running game which has been what this offense has lacked since last year. Mangus can get to the edge and be a game changer. I think he'll get more opportunities tonight to spell Trey Edmunds and he'll make the most of it. UNC rushed for over 4 yards per carry last week and Virginia Tech also has a capable dual threat QB in Logan Thomas. I think this will be an ugly low scoring game, but in the end Bud Foster's defense will force some turnovers from Vad Lee as the inexperienced QB will finally see a capable defense. |
|||||||
09-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 40-23 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
[b]Steelers +3 -120 buy hook[/b]
I think we are getting good value here on the Steelers after they started the season 0-2 and watching the Steelers play the Bengals on Monday night I regretted my selection of the Bengals. Although I covered the Bengals did not play well enough to cover. For the Steelers it feels like the world is against them and the media are already calling for a 2-14 season. Meanwhile the Bears started off 2-0 and all is good with the new coaching staff. Hang on a minute the Bear are extremely lucky to be 2-0 and they played those games at home. This will be the first road game for this coaching staff and the Steelers have the ability to shut down a running game still. Ike Taylor can also take away half the field and take care of Brandon Marshall as we saw him handle AJ Green while Troy Polamalou is flying around the field like he is in his prime. Big Ben has the weapons and receivers to put up points and I think it comes together a bit here on Sunday night with their backs against the wall. |
|||||||
09-22-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Miami Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
[b]Dolphins -1 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
The Dolphins have done nothing but won their first two games on the road and we are still getting value with them, but after this win on Sunday we will no longer get value on the Dolphins. The media really does not talk about them, because QB Ryan Tannehill has not put up numbers like Wilson, RGII or Luck so we have been cashing Dolphins tickets under the radar since last season. For on this Dolphins defense is good. They were #1 in the red zone last year allowing 42% TD conversions 38% when they were home and they are back at it this year spending their first overall pick on a pass rusher. This defense was also ranked 4th in third down defense and looks to be even better this year. The Falcons obviously are banged up right now on offense with Stephen Jackson out and their two star receivers questionable. I expect both White and Jones to play, but this offensive line has struggled on the road in recent years. I think Miami can keep this Falcons team between 17-24 points much like the Saints did. Meanwhile the Dolphins offense is vastly improved with Lamar Miller showing a little life last week, but more importantly Ryan Tannehill had 319 yards and is very quietly becoming one of the better QB's in the league. We also saw Mike Wallace show why the Dolphins spent so much money as he put up 9 receptions and 115 yards against the Browns secondary that has been very good in recent years. They also have a tough match up in FB/TE Charles Clay who caught 5 passes for 109 yards last week. The Dolphins are third right now in red zone TD% showing balance and the Falcons has surrendered 350 passing yards in both of their games this year. Expect another big win by this Dolphins group and some actual hype to follow from the media. |
|||||||
09-22-13 | St. Louis Rams +3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 7-31 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
[b]Rams +3.5 4.4* NFL Early Bird Play[/b]
I don't think this Cowboys team deserves any points at home as they have had no home field advantage since "Jerry World" has opened. The Cowboys also were handed a win in week 1 when the Giants decided to turn the ball over 6 times otherwise this Cowboys team is sitting at 0-2 after the offense struggled a week ago. The Cowboys lines are just not very good and that's painfully obvious when you look at third down conversions and red zone conversions. Cowboys are ranked 24th in red zone defense allowing 71% TD's while the Rams are at 60%. Cowboys are also 20th in RZ TD% offense, and are ranked 29th in converting on third down. The Rams posess the #1 sack unit from last year sacking QB's at the highest percentage of drop backs. Meanwhile the Rams have protected Sam Bradford who has not been sacked yet. Sam Bradford and the Rams showed in the second half how good they can be. Jeff Fisher has been reluctant to let this offense loose with the no huddle, but int eh second half last week we saw it and we saw the Rams nearly come all the way back to beat the Falcons on the road after trailing 24-3 at the half. The Cowboys simply don't have the pass rush right now without a healthy Anthony Spencer and they have a new defensive scheme that will continue to struggle early on. I feel the Rams will go on the road and pull the upset here and I won't even be shocked. |
|||||||
09-22-13 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
[b]Browns +7 3.3* play[/b]
Wow, Cleveland is without their starting running back who they traded to the Colts and their QB Brandon Weeden and the public has poured in on the Vikings. I will take the value here with the Browns as Trent Richardson really was not the reason why this team moved the ball or didn't. This league is a QB league and RB's are a dime a dozen. This team clearly knows what direction they want to go in and I applaud them for realizing a draft pick mistake and still getting a first round pick from the Colts. The media has killed the Browns for this move, but right now I think the Browns rally together go on the road and put themselves in position to beat the Vikings who have been unimpressive to start the season. Cleveland's defense has been stout and are ranked #1 vs. the rush right now allowing just 2.0 ypc and their pass defense has always been solid in recent years with Joe Haden leading the secondary. Up front the Browns sacked Miami 4 times and Baltimore 2 times and facing Christian Ponder and the Vikings is clearly a downgrade offensively. Ponder is the worst QB in this league he just can not move the chains and is very lucky he has the best RB in the league behind him, but Peterson can't do it all. On the other side the Vikings have one of the worst defenses allowing 32.5 ppg and 440 yards per game. Brian Hoyer has one career start and we saw him move the ball against the 49ers last year 19-34 225 yards with a TD and an interception. With Josh Gordon returning at WR and Norv Turner being a very good offensive coordinator in these situations I won't be shocked when the Browns have a chance to win this late. |
|||||||
09-21-13 | Utah +7 v. BYU | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
Utah +7 3.3* Late Night Fix
Wow BYU dominated Texas in the 40-21 dismantling sending the Texas faithful into a panic. Is BYU that good or did they just catch Texas by surprise? I think they just caught Texas by surprise with Taysom Hill running the option as he ran for over 200 yards. Taysom Hill is still not a very good passer completing just 33% of his passes and the running game that had 550 yards did little to nothing when they ran the traditional running game. Utah comes into this game already having to face Chuckie Keeton who runs the option very well and can throw much better than Hill. Utah kept it in check and won the game. I think the oddsmakers are over reacting on this line as Texas has been soft in run defense dating back to last year when they ranked 86th. Meanwhile Utah is ranked 25th and was 33rd last year. This BYU offensive line is anything but a rock losing some important guys from last year and Hill is not ready to win the game on his own. He locks onto receivers for too long and has poor mechanics. We already saw this team struggle on the road against Virginia's front 7 and Utah's defensive weaknesses are in the secondary. Just like we can't over react to what BYU did we can't over react to what Sean Mannion pulled off against Utah's secondary. Mannion is a senior with a ton of weapons. BYU has a quality wide out in Cody Hoffman, but that's it. BYU will also have their hands full defensively as Utah's offense has looked great and why not with Dennis Erickson taking over as the offensive coordinator and Travis Wilson looking like a future star. Wilson has been able to throw it and run it and will run an option of his own to get some tough yards. BYU's secondary is also not a strength and Wilson is more capable of beating their secondary than previous opponents. It will also help Wilson that BYU's defense is not forcing turnovers because he had three a week ago. There is a reason why Utah has dominated this series of late winning 4 of the last 5 with their only loss being by 3 points in the last 5 years. I'll take the inflated points and I think Utah can come up with another shocking win before they restart their PAC 12 schedule. |
|||||||
09-21-13 | Missouri v. Indiana | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 44 h 42 m | Show | |
Missouri +1 4.4* NCAAF Play
This looks like a shootout waiting to happen with both offenses averaging over 500 yards per game. I think we get a great line and some value here with the way the media is hitting the SEC's recent out of conference play. Missouri is also considered one of the worst and now Indiana's offense is lighting up the score board getting a ton of hype so it should be an easy win for Indiana right? I don't think so. Missouri had the worst luck last year not only did they face the second toughest schedule having to face the top 4 teams in the SEC a year ago, but they had injury issues starting in the spring with their QB Johnathan Franklin who is now back looking like the 2011 version. They also lost their star RB in Henry Josey and the offensive line was decimated by injuries with all 5 of the starting group missing at least some time last year. All in all this team went 5-7 considering and now they have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because everyone in the media has destroyed this team for not being able to hang with the SEC. Take a step back and realize that Indiana has had an easy schedule and yes they played a good Bowling Green team and dominated them, but Bowling Green had a new QB in there and Navy and Indiana State were both able to move the ball on this defense scoring 41 and 35 points. Missouri is more balanced and has better athletes with an experienced dual threat QB. Indiana's defense is in major trouble here on Saturday night considering it gave up 444 yards rushing to Navy this is not a good defense by any means and Franklin should expose them with his arm and legs. I look for Missouri's WR Dorial Green -Beckham to have a great game at 6-6 and 225 lbs he's a handful and is drawing comparisons to Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson. Don't get me wrong I was impressed with Indiana's offense, but Bowling Green did stop them twice on 4th down on the goal line and Missouri should be able to get off on 3rd down as their strength is the defensive line. Now once again they are flying under the radar because they have just 2 sacks, but this unit is quick and the first teams they faced ran spread attacks and got rid of the ball quick. Missouri had their first two match ups against similar offenses and they have had an extra week to prepare for it. I'd be shocked if we didn't see an improvement and some struggles by Indiana. After all Missouri has 6 interceptions in 2 games a clear indication their defensive line is better than the 2 sacks they have and Indiana is already -2 on the year and is one dimensional. Missouri also has the best player in the secondary for both teams with EJ Gaines who is said to have NFL pedigree. At the end of the day I think Indiana still has a long way to go and I'll take advantage of an early mistake. |
|||||||
09-21-13 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 11 m | Show |
Michigan State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; Michigan State +175 1* bonus
Notre Dame won the last two meetings and has Oklahoma up next while Michigan State has a bye. Michigan State has line value here because despite being 3-0 everyone is saying they haven't played anyone and they have struggled at times. Which is true they opened up the year against Western Mich, South Florida and Youngstown State. However, they had weather issues against Western Mich that stopped their offense from moving the ball and they also played the first 2 games like an NFL pre season allowing the position battles to continue into those games which can create a lot of sloppy play and guys looking over their shoulder, but against Youngstown State we saw the offense start to click as Mike Dantonio named his starting QB in Connor Cook with a ton of confidence. Connor Cook is a confidenct young QB that is often described as fearless which is a good thing to have going on the road to face Notre Dame. Notre Dame's defense has not played well and their defensive line is not getting the pass rush they were supposed to be getting. Michigan State has recruited some speedier players to play on the perimeter especially in the running game and those are the type of players that have plagued Notre Dame to start this season. Cook was 15-22 for 202 yards and 4TD's against Youngstown before being rested and has plenty of confidence going into this game against a Notre Dame team that is struggling to prevent TD's in the red zone allowing 72% TD percentage this should be a game Michigan State wins, because their defense is that good. Okay, they have not played anyone, but there is no way a struggling Notre Dame running game is going to get going against Michigan State who is just elite against the run and returns 3 senior linebackers including Max Bullough and Denicos Allen. The Irish are ranked 92nd in running the ball so far this season which means they are going to lean heavily on Tommy Rees who is 15-5 as a starter and that's where I'm confident the Spartans will come out on top. Rees is 11-0 against teams that have finished their season with 6 or more losses, but against teams with 5 or less losses he's just 4-5 with 13 TD and 12 INT's. Those stats continue into this season and it's clear he can beat the bad teams, but not the good ones. Michigan State has arguably the best defense of Dantonio era. He's got 3 upper classmen in the secondary. I mentioned the experience at linebacker and finally they have a guy that can rush the passer which has been missing from Spartan defenses in the past. Shilique Calhoun is a hell of an athlete and he will lead the pass rush along with Denicos Allen from the linebacking spot which will create turnovers from Tommy Rees. The Spartans so far this year have allowed 34.6% completion percentage and 15.5% third down conversions and should not be phased by coming to Notre Dame because they have been here plenty of times before. Rees started the season facing the 75th, 76th and 113th ranked pass defenses and now he faces Michigan State that was 7th last year and 6th this year. Michigan State was also 3rd in opponent QB rating last year and is 1st this year. The real difference is sack % they were 87th last year and so far they are ranked 13th. |
|||||||
09-21-13 | Rice +3 v. Houston | 26-31 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 40 m | Show | |
Rice +3 -115 3* Play
It's Rice's turn in Houston right now as Houston is likely to start an 18 year old at QB in John O'Korn who has a lot of potential, but Houston is a work in progress right now especially defensively and that has not yet been exposed by anyone, but in comes Rice who was ranked 41st last year in total yards and already showed how explosive they can be putting up 300+ yards rushing against Texas A&M. Rice just has too much experience returning from last year with 19 starters including a senior QB and every starting offensive linemen. This is a team that was only down 28-21 on the road at A&M and put up 509 yards. This is a team that progressed big time down the stretch winning their last 5 games including their bowl game. Rice's RB Charles Ross is a bruiser that should give Houston's front a handful at 235lb's he already has 264 total rushing yards. QB McHargue who missed last year is a senior and is dying for a chance to upset Houston. He is probable for this match up and I anticipate that he will start. Meanwhile Houston will be without their starting QB and their starting RB Kenneth Farrow is questionable. Rice's defensive front is good enough to get into the backfield to put pressure on the 18 year old QB with Cody Bauer and Christian Covington and they have a solid secondary led by senior CB Phil Gaines who led the nation with 18 pass defenses last year and they return an All American freshmen from 2011 that had injuries in 2012 in Bryce Callahan to form a very solid tandem. At the end of the day not much separates these two and Houston barely got by a Temple team that was bad ranking 112th on offense and 93rd in defense last year and wont' be much better this year. Facing Rice on a neutral field for the Bayou Bucket will be a challenge. |
|||||||
09-21-13 | San Jose State +4 v. Minnesota | 24-43 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 40 m | Show | |
San Jose +4 3.3* Early Bird Special
San Jose State is now 20-6 in their last 26 non conference games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Minnesota is 3-0, but there is enough hype surrounding this team to get an inflated line. A closer look and you see Minnesota has gotten by with some luck or just really good timing on defense and special teams. Western Illinois was up in the 3rd quarter, UNLV outplayed them in Minnesota, but was sloppy and New Mexico State is nothing to get excited about and now they face a San Jose State team with an extra week to prepare while they look ahead to their Big Ten schedule against Iowa next week. San Jose State is not going to make the mistakes that UNLV did, they were +8 TO margin last year and are +2 this year and are one of the least penalized teams. They are also led by an elite QB in David Frales who completed 72% of his passes 33TD and 9 interceptions a year ago and they return 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen. Minnesota is in a tough spot because they are also without their starting CB in junior Brien Boddy-Calhoun. Frales and SJSU offense should find balance as Minnesota did allow 193 yards rushing to UNLV. Minnesota's offense relies on the running game, but San Jose State returns enough key players up front from a unit that allowed just 3.29 ypc on the road a year ago. This team even held Navy under 100 yards and set up teams in 3rd and long holding them to 29% conversions on third down last year. New year new team, but they return enough back to expect similar things and they held their own against Stanford a great rushing team and they held them to 4.80 ypc. on the road. |
|||||||
09-20-13 | Boise State +4 v. Fresno State | Top | 40-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
[b]Boise State +4 3.3* Friday Night Showdown[/b]
Fresno State should be rusty in this game after getting their game postponed last week due to flooding in Colorado. The week before they played against Cal Poly and they opened in a barn burner against Rutgers. I don't see why all of a sudden this team should be favored against Boise State. Fresno State's defense has had a hard time getting off the field already this season allowing 6.09 yards per carry to Rutgers and allowing 172 rushing yards to Cal Poly. Boise comes in with a solid rushing game behind Jay Ajayi, but more importantly the Boise State offense is perfectly balanced with a veteran QB and a veteran solid group of receivers led by QB Joe Southwick and WR Matt Miller. Boise is running the ball 51% of the time and having plenty of success as Ajayi ran for 4TD's a week again against Air Force. Joe Southwick added an impressive 27-29 performance throwing for 287 yards and he's super accurate leading back to last year where he finished the year completing 70% of his passes over the final 4 games. Anyway you look at it he's a better QB than Rutgers Gary Nova who had 5 TD and 348 yards against Fresno State in week 1. Rutgers offense was ranked 106th last year in total yards and shredded the Fresno defense. Boise has the balanced attack to keep them on their toes and should be able to move the ball and score. On the flip side Fresno is led by a one dimensional game and a very good QB in Derek Carr. However, they have yet to have a 100 yard rusher and Derek Carr has not played well against Boise in his career. We still don't know much about this team and I think this spread is very much inflated due to the fact that they put up 50+ points on a Rutgers defense that was excellent last year, but Rutgers defense was gutted only returning 3 starters and Boise is only going to get better on this side of the ball. Sure Washington put up big numbers, but playing at Washington (who had revenge from their bowl loss against Boise) is a different story than playing at Fresno where Boise has had a ton of success. The Boise secondary has had an interception in every game and I think that will be a key difference in this game. The fact that Fresno is also one dimensional will allow Boise to make some third down and red zone stops. I'll take the road team here tonight because Fresno has not done anything to impress me and I think Boise has enough on offense to win this game. |
|||||||
09-19-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Chiefs +3.5 -115 4.5* NFL POD The Eagles have not proven anything yet and it looks more and more like this offense can be good against the bad defenses but what will they do against good defenses like the Chiefs? The Chiefs shutout the Jaguars and the Cowboys (a prolific offense) had a tough time moving the ball on them. Andy Reid should also be fully motivated in this game against his ex team and he knows more about most of these players than Chip Kelly. The Chiefs offense really has not been explosive yet but they are starting to find their way and getting to face the Eagles defense that has struggled already (we saw it vs. the Chargers and in the 2nd half against the Redskins) should allow for some points to be scored. I'll gladly take the more experienced coach and better defense in this spot even if they are on the road. The Eagles offense when it scores scores to fast and it really hurts their defense. When the offense fails and we have seen some of the defenses catch up throughout a game well then the defense is also put in the same position. Alex Smith has done nothing but when as a starting QB in recent seasons and he'll continue to play with a chip on his shoulders and avoid the turnovers while Michael Vick will turn it over a few times tonight.
|
|||||||
09-19-13 | Clemson v. North Carolina State +14.5 | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
[b]NC St +14.5 Bovada 3.3* play[/b]
NC State has defeated a top 10 team the last two years on their home field and now they get to do it again at home on ESPN with millions watching. How can they do it? Well they have one of the ACC's deepest defensive lines that should stay fresh this entire game and pay dividends in covering this spread. They are led by defensive end Art Norman who has been a handful for any defense. Clemson's last real game was on 8/31 same as NC State, but NC State has been preparing for this game all summer and I like what Dave Doereen has been saying this week. He's watched all of Clemson's games from last year and this year and I think he's smart enough to put together a plan that will allow them to compete. Doereen came over from Northern Illinois where he was 22-6 as the head coach and never lost a home game. I also think we get some line value on this line with roughly 70% of the public betting on Clemson based on their Georgia win where they did allow 222 yards on their home field. I think NC State can find a lot of success running the ball with their deep group of running backs. Part of the high public play is due to the fact that NC State before the bye week nearly lost to Richmond, but it was clear they were not showing anything and that they were preparing for this game. They also had 4 turnovers inside the red zone that definitely did not show how they played. Matt Canada is a smart offensive coordinator that has an extra week and he'll mix tempo and no huddle to avoid Clemson subbing players. Canada was responsible for leading the Wisconsin offense last year after three QB changes so he knows a thing or two about game plans. NC State is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home vs. a winning road team. |
|||||||
09-16-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Bengals -6 (3.3* Showdown Play)
If you have any of my recent picks or look at my archived analysis on the webstie you'll find that I talk about line value quite a bit and what you can get for an over reaction on a line. This could be one of the most over reactions as the Steelers were a TD + favorite last week and lost to the Titans at home and now they go on the road and they are a TD under dog. In my opinion week 1 was the over reaction. Vegas knew they could get a ton of money come in on a popular team like the Steelers and they were over priced which is why I quickly took the Titans in week 1. I think the Steelers are this bad right now. They are already having injury issues losing Stephens Howling and Markice Pouncey. Pouncey was a huge loss and will impact an already struggling offense without Heath Miller or a running back. The Bengals on the other hand were able to move the ball without a problem in a tough road environment. They also held Matt Forte in check 19 carreis 50 yards. The Steelers have nobody close to that caliber and the Bengals will be at home where they should get a better push off the line of scrimmage. The Bengals in the end blew an 11 point lead and shot themselves in the foot with penalties and turnovers. They could have won the game by double digits and if they did we would probably be looking at a 9.5 point spread so I actually think we are getting value here. The Steelers have regressed that much and Big Ben and his offensive coordinator Todd Haley do not get a long at all which is never a good sign for a football team. |
|||||||
09-15-13 | Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +4.5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
[b]Giants +4.5 4.4* play[/b]
I see tremendous value on the Giants here based on what happened last week. Both teams played with the National spot light and came up with different results. Broncos dazzled with Peyton Manning tossing 7 TD's and scoring 49 points while the Giants embarrassed themselves with 6 turnovers. The Giants still only lost by 5 points being -5 in the turnover department. There is definitely a market over reaction in this spot so I'll take the extra points with the Gmen. If you watched the Broncos game the Ravens had a 17-14 lead in the third quarter and Ravens head coach did not challenge a clear drop which resulted in a first down and later a TD that changed the entire game. I was not overly impressed by the Broncos the seemed ordinary on both sides of the ball and their offensive line is really shaky and could be in for a long day against the Giants front. Meanwhile the Giants offensive line looked sharp and Eli Manning was able to move the ball against the Cowboys. The Broncos did not resign their best defensive linemen and Von Miller is out on suspension so Eli should get a lot of time and the secondary of the Broncos is not very good either. I'll take the points here with the Giants and hope they have corrected their turnover issues. |
|||||||
09-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
5.5** NFL POD Guaranteed 9% ROI on NFL POD's in Career TB Bucs +3.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD
The Saints come off a game that was their big division game to open the year, almost a must win and now they have a let down on the road against the Bucs. The Saints have not played well on the road and it was an emotional win in week 1 with Sean Payton returning. The Bucs were #1 against the run and they have obviously upgraded their secondary. I don't think Tampa played as bad as it seemed against the Jets in the loss they just got unlucky and this team should be hungry to rebound. Meanwhile the Saints were 29th in sack % and they were lucky to play the Falcons who have arguably the worst offensive line in the game. They also were last in QB rating in road games allowing 109 QB rating and were last in rushing ypc against and allowed 6.3 ypc last week. Look for Doug Martin to have a big game and I also think Vincent Jackson should be able to have a big game especially since Josh Freeman should have plenty of time as the Saints are without two defensive tackles and are also banged up at linebacker and in the secondary. The Saints are a much fade on the road but they get a big number on the road because the public will gladly back them after the Bucs lost to the Jets last week and looked bad doing so.. I see the Bucs rebounding here in a big home win. |
|||||||
09-15-13 | San Diego Chargers +7.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 4 m | Show | |
Chargers +7.5 3.3* NFL Early Bird Play There are a ton of over reaction on the lines by vegas after week 1 and this is one of them. I was on the Eagles on Monday night but lets not forget why. RG3 was clearly rusty and it showed early in this game while the Eagles offense ran their crazy no huddle scheme that worked for the most part, but there were a few three and outs and it definitely slowed down in the second half. The Eagles have gone 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and they don't deserve to be more than a TD favorite at home against anybody. The Chargers showed they can still score points with Rivers back there behind a much improved offensive line putting up 28 points on the Texans (a top 5 defense). Rivers should score 20-28 points in Philadelphia as the Eagles offense will slow up. Chip Kelly can't change the game over night and you could see this offense really get winded at times and that's where the offense started to struggle and slow up. RG3 also got into a groove on this defense late in the game and the Eagles were very lucky they got a big early lead or it could have been very different. Nonetheless they won an emotional game against a division rival and now they have the Chiefs and Andy Reid on Thursday so a look ahead for most of these players is only normal. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Chargers win this game they are not as bad as people think and under a new coaching staff that has clearly energized some of the veterans.
|
|||||||
09-15-13 | Miami Dolphins +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Dolphins +3 -120 3.5* NFL EB play
The Colts were the biggest play for the public in week one and they barely hung on. Once again the public is backing them with this short line of under a field goal in most places at a rate of 62%. However, I see a lot of holes on the Colts team this year. Yes they are strong at WR and QB, but they are weak against the run and lack any sort of a pass rush and it will hurt them this week. Miami won on the road last week without a running game and they should only improve this week. The Colts struggled to protect Andrew Luck against the Raiders and the Dolphins have arguably the best pass rush in the league and Luck was hurried 8 times and sacked 4 times a week ago. The Dolphins want revenge from last years 23-20 loss as they had the game until late. The Dolphins are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the dog is 8-2 ATS int he last 10 meetings. I think the Colts will be playing in a close game just as always, but the Dolphins defense is just too much in this one especially considering they played better on the road all last year and the Colts still have a weakness on the offensive line and do not have any sort of a running game. Meanwhile the Dolphins are more balanced on offense and should be able to win this game or at least play with the lead. |
|||||||
09-14-13 | Wisconsin +4.5 v. Arizona State | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +4.5 3.3* play 100 degree weather, and playing out west and I'm still taking Wisconsin? Wisconsin flew out on Thursday to get used to the time change and this unit is extremely deep at RB with three guys who have gone over 100 yards in each game so far. James White and Melvin Gordon can take it the distance on every carry combining for 1437 yards and 15 TD's a year ago (that was with Montee Ball racking up over 1800 and 23 TDs) and Corey Clement is more of the thumper. Arizona State's weakness is stopping the run because they are very much undersized. They were ranked 81st against the run last year and they never faced a running team like this that will run, run and run some more. Wisconsin will be just too physical and Arizona State allowed 81% TD percentage at home inside the red zone. Joe Stave has looked poised so far against two cupcakes and should have a ton of confidence on play action hooking up with an All Big Ten WR in Jared Abbreuderis. Meanwhile Arizona State does feature a very good offense, but Wisconsin's defense has not given up a point yet this year and was very good last year. They moved to a 3-4 defense this year which seems like they were built for all along and they are anchored by arguably the best LB in the Big Ten in Chris Borland. Before Bret Bielema fled for Arkansas he had been calling this 2013 class his most talented well before he left. I think Wisconsin is smart enough to avoid Arizona's defensive strengths and they'll be able to dominate the time of possession and get out with an ugly win.
|
|||||||
09-14-13 | Oregon State v. Utah -3 | 51-48 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
Utah -2.5 -120 2.5* play Oregon State won this match up last year despite having just 226 total yards and averaging 1.9 ypc at home. Utah had 4 turnovers and two of them led to two easy TD's in Oregon States own territory. Oregon State has already had major injuries that has chipped away at their depth and the offensive line is major concern which is not good news when you are going on the road against a team that's played well to start and is seeking revenge. Utah's defense also has an All-PAC12 caliber player at each level and their strength is up front which should make things difficult for Oregon State's offense once again. DT Tenny Palepoi and end Reilly and Orchard are already off to a great start making plays behind the line of scrimmage. On the flip side Oregon State's defense has looked vulnerable so far while Utah's offense was impressive against a very good Utah State defense that was top 25 run defense last year returning a ton of players on defense. Although Sean Mannion vs. an inexperienced secondary is an issue for Utah especially when Mannion has weapons in the end I don't trust Mannion on the road. He lost 27-8 at Utah with 3 INT's last time and once again Oregon State's defense gave up 600+ yards to Eastern Washington who had a dual threat QB. Utah's QB Travis Wilson has shown early he can run and pass with over 100 yards rushing he has combined for 668 total yards and looks like the real thing for Utah that desperately needed something positive on offense to help them compete in the PAC 12.
|
|||||||
09-14-13 | Alabama -7.5 v. Texas A&M | 49-42 | Loss | -102 | 100 h 36 m | Show | |
[b]Alabama -7 -120 3.5* NCAAF Showdown[/b]
Alright, I'm jumping on this game early this week before it gets up to 10 points or more. Alabama's schedule really is not fair! ARe you kidding Nick Saban gets an extra week to prepare for a game they lost last year? Are you serious? Saban has a game plan for this game and I expect the Alabama defense to show up big time as well as the Alabama offense. Manziel is an easy locker room bulletin board motivation material. Alabama will be motivated and while A&M has not faced any tough teams yet and could have been preparing for this game too they still had to play the game so Alabama will be much fresher. I also think we are getting value here because Alabama struggled vs. Virginia Tech, but it's not like Virginia Tech's defense is not capable of shutting an offense down especially when you give Bud Foster months to prepare with 9 returning starters. Now Alabama plays a team with just 4 returning starters in A&M who also only returns 6 on offense. Alabama has more starters returning and more depth behind them and have all the motivation to shut Johny Manziel up and I think they will on Saturday. |
|||||||
09-14-13 | Stanford -30 v. Army | 34-20 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
When Stanford Has The Ball:
Stanford is known for their size and strength and ability to play smart balanced football and that is exactly what they will do here. Keith Hogan is back at QB and has struggled a bit in the early going so I expect them to get him going on play action and I don't think they'll slow down the offense when this turns into a blow out and it will because.... Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson will have their way running on Army. Both are senior backs running behind an offensive line that averages 305lbs and returns 4 of 5 starters from last year who are all seniors. This is a huge problem for an Army squad because they are always undersized because of the school they go to. To put things in perspective Army returns just two starting offensive linemen and they average 253lbs. Their defensive line averages less than 250lbs and their linebackers average less than 200lbs. That's amazing and this is the worst team you'd want to face with a significant weight disadvantage so I expect Stanford's offense to click well over 40 points in this one as they work out the kinks before PAC 12 action starts. When Army Has The Ball: We know all about Army's triple option attack that the military schools all run because they don't have the size to run a traditional offense. The key is a good defensive front and Stanford has a nasty front 7 again that wins with their physical play. Stanford's defense returns 9 of 11 starters from a year ago and they ranked 9th vs. the run. They also allowed just 27% conversions on third down and 40% TD % in the red zone. Army always has an issue scoring in the red zone and if they score any points they will be field goals in this game. I can't see Army scoring more than 10 points in this game not with the dominance of a Stanford defense and offense that plays physical. Army also has to replace 3 offensive linemen and arguably one of their best QB's in Trent Steelman. This is a rebuilding year for Army while Stanford has mostly a senior laden team. The Pick: Stanford -30 2.2* Free Play - We have seen more and more teams now that are ranked in the top 10 win these type of road games with high spreads. They need to impress the computers and increase their ranking. It all matters and David Shaw will have his team prepared to play the early game as they dominate at West Point. |
|||||||
09-14-13 | UCLA Bruins +3 v. Nebraska | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
UCLA +3.5 -120 3.5* Play
This is a rematch of last year's Big 10 vs. PAC 12 showdown and UCLA shocked Nebraska 36-30 at home last year with a rookie head coach and a freshmen QB as they put up 653 yards on Nebraska. Things have not gotten any better for Nebraska's defense that allowed 1,229 yards in their final 2 games last year and now they bring back an undersized linebacking crew and have 10 freshmen playing in a two deep defensive roster. We saw Nebraska struggle in their first game against Wyoming as dual threat QB Brett Smith passed for 383 yards and ran for 92. Brett Hundley is much more athletic and more talented and has better weapons. Nebraska held on to beat Wyoming by only 3 in that game and UCLA will have an extra week to prepare for this game. The early start has been up for debate but UCLA practices at 7AM and have regular lift schedules before 6AM and I expect them to be ready by kickoff. It also helps that they return 4 of the 5 starting offensive linemen and RB Jordon James looks as good as Jonathan Franklin at RB. UCLA's defense had a nice warm up against this type of offense when they faced Nevada's Cody Fajardo and the defense dominated. The real weakness of this unit is the secondary, but I still have a ton of doubts on Taylor Martinez ability to beat a defense that has terrific front 7 with athletic linebackers which UCLA does. Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are good as any linebacking duo that Nebraska will see in the Big Ten and that's usually when Nebraska struggles. UCLA will be able to force this team to be one dimensional and their aggressive front 7 should be able to force some turnovers when they get some tackles for loss and force Nebraska into third and longs. UCLA was 6th in sack % last year and was even better on the road ranked 2nd with a 12.55% behind only South Carolina. |
|||||||
09-14-13 | Bowling Green +3 v. Indiana | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Bowling Green +3 3.3* Early Bird Play Bowling Green is a serious contender for the MAC title this year and facing Indiana should not fear them. This is a team that went into the swamp (Florida Gators) and were tied 14-14 last year as a very young team. Now this team returns 19 starters and is extremely deep. To put things in perspective they have 11 upper class-men with playing experience in the secondary alone. Indiana's up tempo offense should not phase this unit and I actually think they match up very well. For one Indiana is one dimensional thus far this season as their offensive line has been unable to get any sort of push up front for consistent runs while Bowling Green has always been very strong up front. This will force Indiana into a lot of third and longs on Saturday and Bowling Green was ranked 3rd in third down defense % allowing just 28.07% conversions a year ago. That also translated over the red zone where they held teams to 50% TD %. This defense was also +23 in sacks compared to what their offense gave up +21 tackles for loss and +4 turnovers. Bowling Green will have a balanced offensive attack and they'll dominate the time of possession battle in this one as Indiana will struggle again on defense. They gave up 400 + yards rushing to Navy last week and they knew the run was coming. Indiana has lost the last two years in close games to Ball State at home and this Bowling Green team figures to be even better. I'll go with the defensive team in this one.
|
|||||||
09-12-13 | TCU -3 v. Texas Tech | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
TCU -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
TCU had a really challenging opening week against LSU, but they held their own considering they shuffeled between two QB's, but now Pachal's out againa and it's Trevor Boykin's job again which I like it makes this offense more dynamic with ability to run (585 rushing yards last year). Boykin had a great game vs. Tech last year 330+ yards passing 4 passing TD's. However TCU turned the ball over 3 times, but still hung in there but only to lose 56-53 in 3 OT's. Revenge is sweet and I think Garry Patterson did a terrif job last year with a young inexperienced roster that had a lack of depth. The team actually was 5-1 on the road beat two ranked teams in their own building. That shows just how good this team can be moving forward now that they return 16 starters. Wayman James is back again who has averaged 7.6 ypc since 2011 and pairing him with Boykin is a scary thought. I think TCU can run wild against Tech tonight. Meanwhile Texas Tech has had a ton of success with walk on freshmen Baker Mayfield, but that was against SMU and SF Austin. Now they face TCU and Gary Patterson who obviously will have a better game plan than last year. Mayfield has had a daylight behind a new offensive line in his first two games, but now he'll play a defensive line that features Devonte Fields who was the Big 12 defensive player of the year. TCU also returns all 5 of their guys in the secondary including Jason Vervett. I expect them to play man and agressive against Mayfield who won't have time to get to his third progression. This should result in turnovers and sweet revenge in Texas Tech's backyard. |
|||||||
09-09-13 | Houston Texans v. San Diego Chargers +5.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
Chargers +4.5 5.5* NFL POD
The biggest public play of the week is on the Texans on Monday night football game 2 which will include tons of parlays and teasers etc. Vegas has the public right where they want them, but I'm not falling for it even though backing the Chargers will take a lot of convincing. I think the Chargers did fix a lot of their issues including drafting an offensive linement in the first round and signing 3 more as free agents to help protect Phillip Rivers. This will be the first step and on national tv I think the Chargers will be up to make a statement in the last game of week 1. I'm not saying they will win and they may lose in blow out fashion, but I just can't see laying the road chalk with a Texans team that everyone is picking to get to the AFC Championship game. The Texans have been a team that really does not blow other teams out in the past and although they were a good road team last year their wins on the road were not by much. Chargers weakness on defense comes in the secondary, but they have a strong pass rush and front 7 that can stop the rush ranking 5th a year ago. Chargers have plenty of talent at WR despite injuries as they still have a healthy Antonio Gates, Vincent Brown, Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal and newly drafted Cal star Keenan Allen. Phillip Rivers is a firey competitor that has been stuck in a stale Norv Turner run offense for years. I think the off season changes have lit the fire again and he would love nothing better than to upset the Texans as a heavy home dog. I really like the coaching changes on the Chargers side with Mike McCoy as the head man and the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt. These guys have been scheming and coming up with a game plan for months against the Texans. The Texans have not shined on Monday night and I believe they struggle again here as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. |
|||||||
09-09-13 | Philadelphia Eagles +4 v. Washington Redskins | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
Eagles +4 3.3* Early Bird Play
I really like the talent level of the Eagles right now with Michael Vick and Lesean Mccoy in the backfield. It's hard not to think these guys won't put up big numbers. This game is more unpredictable than anything, but I'm backing the team getting points in this spot especially since the Redskins could have a hard time preparing for Chip Kelly's offense. There is not much to prepare for since you don't know what is coming. Shanahan could go back to the tape at Oregon all he wants, but it's going to be totally different live. The Redskins on the other hand will start RGIII who did not play this pre season and has to be rusty. There really is no other way around it and I think the running game really over achieved a year ago and the talent level on the Redskins defense has been depleted. I think the Eagles can really come in here and walk out with a win as the Redskins are getting too much hype and this number is off by a point or so. I just think Michael Vick has a lot left and I think he will put on a show Monday night to show who is still really the dual threat QB while the Redskins offense will be flat throughout the first half. |
|||||||
09-08-13 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +10.5 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
[b]Bills +10.5 3.3* NFL Early Bird[/b]
I'm shocked at the ticket price to play the Patriots in the opening week. I'll take the home team here in the Bills who play the Patriots every year and are very familiar with them on offense and defense. The Patriots have done little to improve their defense that ranked 24th last year. When you think about it that rank was probably worse considering their soft schedule. Not only do they get to play in the AFC East and play 3 teams who lack a QB twice they also got ot play Arizona, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Rams. I really think E.J. Manuel has a bright future especially with Doug Marone's offense as he's really smarter than most people would think and he's fearless and has a ton of talent. There is a reason he's still starting after missing time, the guy is very mature. Add that into a mix of talented receivers and a top 5 running game C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and you have a team that can put up points. In fact this team put up 38 and 31 points in the two games against the Patriots. Expect a high scoring game with Marone in the mix. If you recall he was Sean Payton's offensive coordinator back in 2006-2008 with the Saints. |
|||||||
09-08-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
[b]Saints -3 -115 3.5* NFL Play[/b]
Sean Payton is back and the Saints will win this game. I think it's more of a statement game than anything because the Falcons keep on making moves based on the Saints. The Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games and are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two. Saints have got to be tired of hearing about the hype of the Falcons for the last year and a half and will come out and take it out on the Falcons. Saints will give up a ton of yards, but when the game turns into the red zone that's where the Saints make their money. At home last year they were ranked 3rd in red zone TD% defense allowing just 38.89% TD's and on offense you guessed it they were #1 on offense with a 75% TD rate. |
|||||||
09-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
[b]Panthers +3 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
All the hype has been on the Seahawks this entire off season and many are picking them to actually win the Super Bowl, but Cam Newton and the Panthers have been listening and I think they come up with a big win here today. The Panthers closed 2012 with 4 consecutive wins and were -1 favorites in last years match up. I don't see any drastic changes that would move this line 4 points other then the fact that the public loves the Seahawks and so do the media. People forget the Seahawks are more of a home team. They went 3-5 on the road last year and their wins were by 6 and 4 and of course the blow out of a disinterested Bills team. I expect Cam Newton to have a huge game as he really needs to step up this year. |
|||||||
09-07-13 | Arizona v. UNLV +10.5 | 58-13 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 34 m | Show | |
UNLV +10.5 3.3* PLAY ; UNLV +345 1* PLAY
UNLV returned 18 starters from last years team that seemed to start to turn the corner a bit for a very under rated coach in Bobby Hauck. However, they just had a bad game at Minnesota but if you look at the box score they outgained them by 120 yards had more first downs and held Minnesota's offense in check which is actually pretty similar in terms of run/pass % to what Arizona is looking to do. So what happened against Minnesota that had them lose 51-23 and give us tremendous value in this spot? They gave up 98 yard kick return, a block FG returned for a TD and a 89 yard interception return for a TD. That is easily 17 point swing or at least take away the 21 points Minnesota got and you have a different game. We actually had UNLV as our pick that night and I truly feel we just got unlucky and that our luck will turn around in this game and I wouldn't be shocked to see UNLV pull off a shocker. Arizona passed for just 87 yards last week and truly are searching for a QB. They do get Ka'Deem Carey back at RB this week, but their offensive line depth is not close to what it was last year and they don't have QB Matt Scott along with stud WR Austin Hill to keep a defense honest. Arizona may win this game heck they may even blow out UNLV, but I think the Rebels are closer than what people are thinking especially with how they played at home on both sides of the ball converting 51% of their third downs allowing just 38% and averaging 4.93 ypc with the effect Tim Cornett at RB. This team is dangerous at home just ask Nevada who they nearly beat as +14 dogs last year, or an Air Force team that they beat as +8.5 or even Minnesota who beat them by 3 at UNLV as double digit favorites. |
|||||||
09-07-13 | North Texas +4 v. Ohio | 21-27 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
North Texas +4.5 2.75* play Ohio had a ton of trouble with Louisville and they are usually competitive in just about every game, but they were wiped off the field. They have a nice trio on offense with Tettleton, Blankenship and WR Donte Foster, but it won't be enough here. Every so often the Mean Green show their Texas power and with an extra day of preparation and 16 starters returning for Dan McCarney's third year I think this is the year they go back to a bowl game. North Texas trounced Idaho 40-6 which is not saying much, but they found out already that they are deep at RB behind a veteran offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the nation last year. They go up against an Ohio front 7 that has to replace 5 of their starters. That's going to be the difference in this game, because on the road what you have up front and what the other team has up front and it's North Texas advantage in this game. They also have an experienced back 7 including some stars all over the secondary. If Ohio is smart they'll look to run, but I think in the end it will force them into FG's not TD's as North Texas was the best in the Sun Belt a year ago allowing the fewest passing TD's. North Texas has Brelan Chancellor on offense who is getting comparisons to T.Y. Hilton.
|
|||||||
09-07-13 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 30-41 | Loss | -104 | 40 h 31 m | Show |
South Carolina +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I honestly think everything is going right for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks right now as they not only get a couple of extra days to prepare for this game having played on Thursday but they get Georgia who comes off a physical and emotional loss where they lost to Clemson and lost their best receiver in Malcolm Mitchell which now takes away 40% of Aaron Murray's targets last year when you add in they lost Tavarres King. South Carolina actually beat Clemson at the end of last year 27-17 and South Carolina is actually 5-0 ATS the last 3 years when they have had extra time to prepare in the regular season. What else is going right? The media has seriously pumped up Jadeveon Clowney after all but elminating him from the Heisman discussion and ripping him for taking plays off. I see this as an opportunity for Clowney to have a big impact on the game and the fact that Murray has one less target that he's used to throwing to should allow South Carolina to be just that much more aggressive. What was also lost in their win against UNC was Bruce Ellington being limited and TE Buster Anderson returning for this game to give Connor Shaw a target over the middle to go along with the speed he has on the outside. The speed is something South Carolina is not used to having but with Shaq Rolland and Dariene Byrd this receiving corps is better than what Georgia is used to seeing. That's a major issue because a defense returning just 3 defensive starters that allowed the Gamecocks to run for 230 yards a year ago will now have to think twice about stacking the box. In the running game Mike Davis also has more home run speed than Marcus Lattimore had and Brandon Wilds forms a nice punch as the more physical runner along with Shaw as a runner too. I don't think Georgia's defense is ready for this and South Carolina's offensive line is just too big and physical averaging 322 lbs they will wear down on Georgia's front once again on route to victory as Steve Spurrier seems to own Richt going 3-0 int he last 3. Overall Spurrier is 15-5 vs. Georgia who allowed 6 200 yards rushing games last year. Georgia has some nice RB's in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, but South Carolina got smaller and more speedy in their line backing corps and I think they should be able to handle it even on the road to get the win. |
|||||||
09-07-13 | Florida -3 v. Miami (Florida) | 16-21 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 2 m | Show | |
Florida -2.5 -115 3.5* NCAAF Early Bird
The big question here for what seems to be a one dimensional Florida team is can they run on Miami? Well I believe they can do more than that on Saturday, but running is a definite yes as Miami's defense was just awful last year and they really have not recruited well on this side of the ball for quite some time. This is a group that allowed 4.97 ypc and 29 rushing TD's a year ago and are likely to get bullied up front against a Florida offensive line that returns 87 career starts. Miami's secondary is also young and in transition without any form of pass rush they lack on third down defense and play soft coverage which should open things up a bit for QB Jake Driskell. While Miami is blessed wit a good QB and RB duo in Stephen Morris and Duke Johnson we saw them struggle at time against solid defenses. Scoring 13, 3, and 20 vs. Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Florida State come to mind. All three of those offenses had strong running games and were able to dominate Miami and I don't see what has changed. Florida had to replace things on defense, but they have a terrific back 7 that will likely play man defense which is something Stephen Morris is not used to seeing. That allows them to stop Duke Johnson which I believe they will. Florida has plenty of talent that is unknown and some good coaching. The defense was arguably the best last year and they were lacking a speed rusher when Ronald Powell went down, but he's back this year and already has a sack in his first game. Miami wants to win this game, but they are not capable of doing what Clemson did to Georgia. This is a Florida team that played pretty well on the road against good QB's as they won at Florida State, Texas A&M a year ago. |
|||||||
09-06-13 | Wake Forest +3 v. Boston College | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +3 3.3* NCAAF play
I like the Deacons here who return more starters than BC with 16, 8 on both sides. I think it also pays that they are moving their offense to the run option which really fits the strengths of their QB Price who was a dual threat option QB in highschool. It's something they should have done a year ago. Meanwhile BC brings back just 14 starters and had plenty of issues last year on defense and on the offense that can not be corrected in a season. I think Wake was better last year than what their season showed us as they had plenty of injuries. They are healthy for this game and I think the defense can play well on the road while BC will still struggle to put pressure on a QB and give up rushing yards (ranked 92nd last year) as they gave up 200+ to Villanova in week 1. |
|||||||
09-05-13 | Baltimore Ravens +7.5 v. Denver Broncos | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Ravens +7.5 3.3* NFL POD I think everyone is over reacting to the things the Ravens lost on defense last year and I think their additions will be just fine. One thing is certain up front they have never been stronger with the addition of Elvis Dumervil who is addition by subtraction having played for the Broncos last year and is now paired with a healthy Terrel Suggs. This defense should be able to get a healthy pass rush on Peyton Manning who should have the answers for the most of the night, but the Ravens should be able to move the ball too. Joe Flacco stepped up as an elite QB in the playoffs and I think he has a good game tonight especially because he'll have a ton of time and his receivers will be going against a secondary that was over hyped last year and is without Champ Bailey. I see Flacco having plenty of time to throw the ball without Dumervil and Von Miller (suspended) which accounted for 20+ sacks a year ago. That should open the running game late to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines enough to cover the spread.
|
|||||||
09-02-13 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +11.5 | 41-13 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh +11.5 3.3* play; Under 48 2.2* bonus
A teaser is also very tempting in this spot, but I like Pitt and the under for the most part. I think Florida State has a ton of potential again this year, but they have a lot of work to do and I think Pitt is facing them at the right time. Pitt is an under rated program that finally has some stability at coaching in Paul Chryst who took two top 10 teams to the wire last year in Louisville and Notre Dame so don't be shocked to find Pitt in this game. Florida State's head coach Jimbo Fisher had to replace both of his coordinators and his top play maker in QB E.J. Manuel. Red shirt freshman Jameis Winston is getting a lot of hype, but the receiving corps is depleted by injuries and he's going on the road for the first time in a hostile environment against PItt's secondary that ranked 21st in pass efficiency defense last year which returns 3 of their 4 starters. I expect Florida State to run the ball a lot behind that offensive line that brings back 4 of the 5 starters. Running on Pitt has never been easy on the road and they return 3 of their top 4 defensive linemen inclfffuding Aaron Donald who is NFL worthy. Pitt was int he top 25 in yards per carry allowed at home and the Seminoles running game was hit or miss a year ago. I see Pitt really being able to rely on their veteran secondary and stack the box and play against the run setting up some long third downs. Pittsburgh's offense is intriguing as they bring over Tom Savage who has not started for a few years, but once was a 4 star recruit with a big arm. I expect he has a chip on his shoulder and he's got an NFL target in Devin Street at 6'4. I think Pitt can find some room with their offensive line that averages about 315 lbs against a Florida State defense that has to replace all 4 starters up front. Make no mistake this unit will still be great especially with experience returning in the secondary, but Pitt should be competitive in this game. At the end of the day I see a lot of third down stops and a lot of field goals in a tight battle. Neither team seems to have an ability to pass the ball consistently which has me favoring the under which is 7-2 in Florida State's last 9 road games. |
|||||||
09-01-13 | Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5 | 41-27 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Colorado State -2.5 -115 3* play
These are two similar programs with a lot of question marks, but Colorado was just awful last year. I do like the hire of Mike MacIntyre from San Jose State, but these type of jobs usually take a year to see improvements. MacIntyre had success with the same situation at San Jose, but his first year they went 1-11, then 5-7, and 11-2. Colorado State seems just a bit ahead of Colorado with Jim McElwain in his second year and we really started to see the offense and the team click down the stretch where they went 3-1-1 ATS and averaged 29 points per game. Both teams have 17 starters returning and questions at QB, but I think Colorado Sate is stronger up front where it matters. Colorado St has a 1-2 punch in Donnell Alexander in Chris Nwake running behind 4 returning starters. They were really solid down the stretch even averaging 4.49 ypc at Boise State (who ranked 24th in run defense ypc last year). Colorado was 123rd in run defense and should be bad again. On the flip side Colorado lost their top 2 offensive linemen, but had major issues running the ball which led to just 29% conversions on third downs. I see more of the same issues even against a new Colorado State defensive line which I think will be better with additions of junior college transfers. Colorado State also returns a strong secondary which could get interesting again Paul Richardson who returns for Colorado after a year off. Richardson can be one of the best receivers in the PAC 12, but he lacks a QB to get him the ball. |
|||||||
08-31-13 | Northwestern v. California +6 | 44-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
California +6 2.2* bonus
Cal has regularly not lived up to expectations, but they are littered with 4 star talent as Jeff Tedford always did an exceptional job recuriting and I think their talent is compatible with Sonny Dykes Air Raid system because they have a lot of depth at WR. The offensive line has to replace 2.5 starters, but there is plenty of potential and being at home the first game should be an advantage. Northwestern was 61st in sack % last year and often struggled to get teams off the field. Northwestern comes into this game as a heavy road favorite because they are 22nd in the AP poll, but we have learned that means nothing. They have some of the key players back with Cain Kolter and Mack at running back, but they have to replace 3 starters with 97 starts along the offensive line so expect the running game they rely on so much to struggle early in the season. Cal really needed a coaching change and I think there will be a lot of buzz tomorrow night and I won't be surprised to see them defeat a ranked opponent to open up the season. |
|||||||
08-31-13 | Boise State v. Washington Huskies -3.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
Washington -3.5 3.3* Late Night Fix
Washington has revenge on their mind after they lost to Boise State in the bowl game on neutral field in Las Vegas. Now they'll play Boise at home to open up the season with 18 returning starters including 10 on offense while Boise returns just 11 total and 5 on defense. That's where Washington will have a huge advantage with Bishop Sankey combining for 279 yards on 30 carries and 6 receptions in the bowl game. Washington is implementing a new spread up tempo attack that should have a big impact in this game if QB Keith Price can run it. Boise is strong on the defensive line with Demarcus Lawrence who was suspended for the bowl game, but they have no depth and they'll have an issue against Washington at home and an OL that made the necessary changes for improvement. I think Price has a big game connecting with Kaseen Williams and the running game should explode as Boise has a completely rebuilt back 7. Now Boise always comes up with big games when they are not supposed to, but this time they have just 2 returnign starters on the offensive line and Joe Southwick who picked up his play last year at QB will be going into a hostile environment as Washington re-opens their stadium. This will be the loudest opposing crowd that Southwick has played in and I think Washington will have a huge impact on this as they are very strong in the front seven. I don't think Boise will have the time to take advantage of their biggest advantage in this game which is receiving corp vs. the Washington secondary. I look for defensive coordinator to press and jam the Boise receivers to make it difficult for the offense to move the chains. |
|||||||
08-31-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette +10 v. Arkansas | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
LA Lafayette +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
The Rajin Cajuns are the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference behind the best player in the Sun Belt in Terrance Broadway. Broadway combined for 26 total TD's nearly 3,000 passing yards and nearly 1,000 rushing yards. He's a dual threat that almost defeated Florida at the swamp last year. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and Mark Hudspeth is a very under rated head coach. This is an explosive and balanced attack with a nice running back in Alonzo Harris who averaged 5.2 ypc, but also runs with conviction at 6-1 and 220 lbs. Broadway also avoid the sack nicely ranking 18th in fewest sack% but even less on the road which shows maturity. On defense 6 the top 8 linebackers return which will be crucial against Arkansas team that only returns 4 offensive starters. Arkansas lost a lot of guys and then they hired Brett Bielema who now can show off how good of a coach he is in the best conference It will not be a quick turn around as Arkansas receivers are completely depleted losing 57% of their graduates as well as 3 key injuries in the off season. That means they will lean on the running game because they are also breaking in a new QB and Bielema loves to runt eh ball, but the offensive line is breaking in 3 new offensive linemen. Arkansas should be able to move the ball on the ground, but when they get in the red zone they will struggle. Lafayette has the linebackers to make life difficult and Arkansas with a top 20 offensive line, big running back and top receiver a year go could not finish drives so I'm not sure how they'll do it in their first game without those resources. In the end Arkansas is rebuilding while Lafayette is still playing in the now and would love a big win over an SEC team. |
|||||||
08-31-13 | BYU v. Virginia +1 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 39 h 14 m | Show | |
Virginia +1 3.3* NCAAF Play
BYU has issues on offensive line and should be fine by the end of the year, but they had issues protecting the QB with two fantastic blockers in the line up and now Braden Brown and Braden Hansen are gone. They also lose two starters up front to the NFL on the defensive side so I think it's asking a lot for BYU to go on the road and win especially with an inexperienced QB in Taysom Hill who will be asked to win the game with his arm because Virginia's defensive front is very good against the run allowing just 3.24 ypc at home a year ago. The problem with Hill winning with his arm is Virginia returns all 4 starters in the secondary and they will have an aggressive approach with the new defensive coordinator Tenuta's style. Virginia also has a new offensive coordinator in Steve Fairchiwho will bring his NFL experience and prostyle offense, but you will see more running from Virginia they have plenty of depth at running back including Kevin Parks and blue chip prospect. They also have 6 guys with starting experience on the offensive line and three 4* receivers that are upper class-men. Having a new QB won't be a bad thing because between Sims and Rocco Virginia was not very good I think forcing them to run the ball is going to be crucial to the success of this team that needs to get to a bowl game. If they are going to this is a huge game that is a must win. |
|||||||
08-30-13 | Texas Tech v. SMU +5.5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
SMU +4.5 3.3* NCAAF POD
SMU only returns 12 starters (6 on each side), but I think this match up favors them as Texas Tech only returns 5 starters on offense. Hal Mumme takes over as the new offensive coordinator and will run his air raid offense which is very similar to the offense this unit ran a year ago and going up against a Texas Tech secondary that graduated a lot of experience that rarely forced turnovers. Texas Tech also has issues at linebacker size and you can certainly run on them, but more importantly the front 7 was 91st in sack% which means SMU should be able to run their offense without worrying about getting sacked. Garret Gilbert returns for his senior year and should have a chip on his shoulder. He did not play that well last year and was once a highly touted recruit at Texas, but he's got some weapons on the outside and this unit should be able to move the ball at home against a below average defense on Friday night. Gilbert just can't turn the ball over and facing the Red Raiders it's likely he won't. Texas Tech meanwhile has a new QB and new offensive line and a new head coach. A lot changes and it's a lot to ask to go on the road on a Friday night and win especially when your strength is passing the ball and SMU return all 4 starters from last year including Kenneth Acker and Chris Parks one of the better duos in the nation. They were 20th in opponent completion % despite being 86th in sack %. This unit was also 23rd in takeaways and I think that will be the difference on Friday night. |
|||||||
08-29-13 | Utah State +3 v. Utah | 26-30 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Utah State +3 -115 3* play
Maybe an in state rivalry is forming here? Anyway Utah lost last year 27-20 on the road and they look at revenge, but I don't see them getting it here. They are implementing a new spread offense that I don't think works well with QB Travis Wilson and they can't run the ball ranking 108th and 102nd the last two years. Gone is their best running back John White and 3 multi-year linemen. On defense they lose 3 of their top 4 defensive linemen and have transitioned to a smaller quicker defense. These type of drastic changes usually don't pay off early in the season. Utah State on the other hand brings back 14 starters 7 on offense and defense. Their defense is stacked with the best linebackers in the Mountain West in Zach Vigil and Jake Doughtry. Their front 3 are big and active with an elite pass rusher in Connor Williams. This is a team that only allowed 30% TD conversions int he red zone and 32% third down conversions. Meanwhile Utah allowed 72% red zone conversions. The defense was ranked 14th last year and dominated at times against some pretty good teams. Offensively their QB is the best player on the field in Chuckie Keeton who is a dual threat QB with nearly 4,000 yards of total offense over 30 TD to just 9 interceptions. He did lose some receivers and his starting running back, but he brings back all 5 starters on the offensive line which is huge. Joe Hill will fit in fine with this group that has turned around NFL running backs in back to back years. |
|||||||
08-29-13 | North Carolina v. South Carolina -11.5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
S. Carolina -11.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If you read my SEC College Football Preview & Odds article you'll know I'm very high on South Carolina. Everyone is raving about Jadeveon Clowney but they forget Connor Shaw missed a lot of time last year and returns. The Gamecocks have not lost a game at home as a double digit favorite since 2004 and I don't anticipate it Thursday night. In fact I see them dominating from start to finish with Shaw playing like he has a chip on his shoulder. He knows he can't take anything for granted with his injury history and he's said several times this off season they can't look past UNC who has a very good QB of their own in Bryan Renner, but the strengths and weaknesses for both teams put South Carolina in a huge advantage. First of all UNC's defense lacks edge pressure and they are weak at linebacker up the middle leaving them vulnerable up the gut which is the very spot the Gamecocks will look to attack. South Carolina is very strong up front with 4 returning offensive linement, but their weakness is speed rushers which North Carolina does not have this year. UNC actually runs an odd 4-2-5 scheme but they lack the pieces including the BANDIT which is the key position. So what happens is teams like this get pushed and that's what I think will happen on Thursday night. The running game will set up the passing game for Connor Shaw and South Carolina has a lot of speed and athleticism at receiver that should take advantage of UNC's talented secondary because Shaw will have time and he can also create plays with his feet. UNC comes in with a rebuilt offensive line with 3 new starters. This team also lost their top running back which won't be an issue by season end but I don't see them being able to run against South Carolina who allowed just 2.6 ypc at home. The Gamecocks are vulnerable against the run but we won't know it on Thursday since they are home and facing a team with a new offensive line. Renner will likely turn to the passing game at some point which won't be a good idea with the pass rushing skills South Carolina has with Clowney and senior Chaz Sutton. North Carolina had a terrific season last year offensively which is why they are getting a ton of respect with this line, but they really did not have any tough road games like this. Their up tempo spread attack will have issues against a good pass rush. |
|||||||
02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
Ravens +4 5.5* NFL POD; U48 3.3* Bonus
Honestly this game to me comes down to a coin flip. You can read my blog articles to get my feeling on all the break downs and match ups if you need more betting confidence. I see tremendous value on getting more than a FG in this game where the battles seem to be very even to me. A few things do stick out especially what Baltimore has had to do to get to this point and who they beat to get here, but overall I think the Ravens will be in position to win this game. They have a more experienced QB in Joe Flacco who does not get rattled by anything and wants to prove he's an elite QB so he can get paid in the off season. There is potentially millions riding on this game for Flacco and the Ravens should be able to put together a gameplan on defense to stop this hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick. If I am wrong I'll tip my cap to him, but I think with two weeks to prepare the Ravens will be ready. Some interesting advantages for Baltimore are special teams and red zone efficiency. First ofa ll nobody missed more FG's than David Akers this year. They were 31st in FG %, and he's only 50% over the last three games. Meanwhile Baltimore is 100% in the post season and 5th overall with a 91.43%. Both teams are similar in third down conversion offense and defense and have played similar teams, but the real difference comes in the red zone. Not only are the Ravens finally healthy but they are dominating opponents in the red zone and good ones at that. They've held the last three opponents to 40% TDs in the red zone and two of those teams were ranked 3rd and 6th overall. Baltimore is 2nd overall and with the 49ers not having many options at WR and Baltimores ability to not allow TD's to TE (2 all year) I love their chances of continuing this success. The 49ers on the other hand well they were ranked 27th in the regular season and allowed 72% conversions in the red zone on the road. They've had issues stopping opposing TE's in the zone and the Ravens have a good one in Pitta and some could even say Anquan Boldin is like a TE. Offensively Baltimore has converted 80% of their red zone chances but they will also stretch the field with Torrey Smith. San Francisco was ranked just 15th in red zone offense. Kaepernick is going to have to make plays in the red zone and he doesn't even have a full season under his belt. There is a lot he has not seen in the NFL and I'm sure Baltimore will have a few tricks up their sleeves. |
|||||||
01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens +8 v. New England Patriots | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Ravens +8 3.3* play
Originally I thought the extra plays were going to hurt this Ravens team but the extra day of rest over the Patriots will be a big deal. This team has that feel of destiny and they were last year a play away from heading to the Super Bowl. The Patriots in my opinion continue to fly in over rated on defense and we saw how Arian Foster had his way with this team but it was too little too late. Ray Rice has had a tendency to go off against the Patriots and now that they have solidified their offensive line with Bryant McKinnie moving to LT I think they will be right in this game with a shot to win in the end. |
|||||||
01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons +5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
Falcons +4 5.5* NFL POD; Falcons +185 3* play; U49.5 2.2* play
So it seems hard to find anyone to be on the Falcons, but I am once against this week. Everyone thinks what the 49ers did to the Packers is going to happen again. I think the public is over reacting to one game here. For one the 49ers unleashed their pistol package running out of it 45% of the time in that game while they ran just 7 times in the last two games of the season. The Falcons should be able to put a game plan together that can defend against it. After all Colin Kaepernick is not that experienced playing in this type of environment. I look for the Falcons to bring their safeties up and also blitz the 49ers quite a bit trying to force Kaepernick into mistakes. The 49ers have struggled at times on the road and particularly in domes where they were just 1-2 this year. There are many reasons for that and one of them is their pass protections still is not very good ranked 28th on the season in sack% allowed while the Falcons are ranked 7th and Matt Ryan was not sacked a single time against the Seahawks who have a pretty good pass rush in their own right. I think the banged Smith's on the DL will finally catch up to this team on the road this week. Much of the public was on the Packers last week and now many are running to bet on them given how the Falcons almost gave up their big lead to Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do face a stiff task against the 49ers, but the 49ers are facing the best group of receivers they have all year long and you can not forget about the TE. Tony Gonzalez is still getting it done and there were only 6 teams that gave up more TD's to TE's this year than the 49ers. That should be a huge key here as the 49ers just were not very good in the red zone on the road. In fact they were dead last allowing 79% TD's in the red zone. The Falcons on the other hand were ranked 5th on the season allowing 46.81% TD's in the red zone and the 49ers offense only scoring 48% TD's in the red zone on the road. That's another reason why I like the under in this game despite the total going over 15-4-1 in the last 10 years in championship games. But I think this total is quite high considering the Falcons have only allowed 1 team to score more than 30 points all year long. The 49ers usually came back with a dud after scoring more than 30 points or more this season including a combined 29 points after BUF/NO/NE. I'm not suggesting that will happen again here, but playing on the road in a dome in a loud environment is no easy task for a first year QB. Don't expect to see what we saw last week as I can see the Falcons holding on for a win. |
|||||||
01-13-13 | Houston Texans +10 v. New England Patriots | 28-41 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
Texans +10 2.75* PLAY
I like the Texans in this one. We saw yesterday in the Ravens a team that went into Denver in the regular season and were destroyed. The Texans came to New England once upon a time ago on a Monday night and were blown out of the building in the first quarter. I don't see that happening in the playoffs here today. Look for the Texans to play with a huge chip on their shoulder much like the Ravens did. Again Brady and the Patriots have been in this position before and have come up short. The Texans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 with revenge on the line and the Patriots are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games. We saw just 2 years ago when the Jets got blown out by the Patriots and came back in the playoffs to shock them. The Texans have similar ingredients with a good running game solid defense and a QB that can play extremely well off play action. I expect the Texans to be in this game right to the finish. |
|||||||
01-13-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 30 m | Show |
Falcons -2.5 5.5** NFL POD
Originally I liked the Seahawks, but upon further research this is just a bad bad match up for them. First of all it's not easy traveling all the way back west and then coming all the way back to play a game where your body feels like it's 10AM. Then you have to play a team that has to be hungrier than ever led by Matt Ryan who has not won a playoff game but is due for a big one. The Falcons have handled good running teams all year despite being among the worst to stop it from a ypc aspect. They went 5-1 against teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc. That's because they get out to early leads forcing opponents to pass the ball. The Seahawks have passed the ball significantly more on the road as it is and they fell behind quick to the Redskins and were probably lucky that RG III was not 100%. I see the Seahawks coming out a little flat in this game and it doesn't help that they have not faced many elite QB's this year. They only faced three in my mind in New England, Green Bay and Detroit. They got lucky in both New England and Green Bay in home games and then lost to a bad Detroit team in a dome on the road. Their defense also only went up against 2 teams in the top 9 in sack %. Matty Ryan is 7th only sacked 4.35% of his drop backs and they have more weapons than all of the 3 previously mentioned teams on the outside. Speaking of domes. Russell Wilson has not fared well this year. He's been great at home and even really good on the road over his last three games, but he played two road games in domes this year and in those games he lost both and threw 4 interceptions to just 2 TD's. If the Falcons can get up early they can ride their crowd in this one and I really think they will come out firing on all cylinders early to control this game and finally get a win. This team was different this year getting big wins when I thought they wouldn't and I'm very confident being on the Falcons side in this game. |
|||||||
01-12-13 | Baltimore Ravens +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
Ravens +10 -125 5** NFL POD Ravens +330 0.5* play
Call me crazy, but I even think the Ravens could win this game. They are healthy for the first time all season on defense and we saw that last week when they kept the Colts out of the end zone. Peyton Manning is 9-0 in his last 9 vs. the Ravens and he'll have his fun today, but historically he has not played well in his first game after a bye week. First of all I think the bye week is over rated unless you have a ton of injuries. Why? Well it's not like you get to prepare for one team for 2 weeks. You don't know who your opponent is and for a team like Denver that was red hot on a big winning streak of 11 to close out the season this is the last thing I would think they wanted. Since 1990 teams with 8+ game winning streaks to close a season and had a bye are just 3-16 ATS when they are laying more than 3 points in that first game. Manning also has not been his usual elite self and this time he won't have the benefit of playing in a dome. In his career he has had 4 byes and those teams averaged 27 points. In that first playoff game Manning's offense only averaged 19.5 points more than a TD difference from his season average. So you tell me did the bye really allow Manning an advantage over the competition? Next Denver backers are claiming how elite their run defense is. They are #2 in run defense efficiency allowing just 3.6 ypc, but they faced just 3 teams in the top 10 and 2 of those 3 games were against the Chiefs who obviously were coming from behind throwing it more. If Baltimore can get up early in this game and continue to lean on the run Denver could have big problems. Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice are as good as any combo in this league averaging 4.9 ypc in their last 3 games and Caldwell seems to remember how to run the ball rushing it around 56% of the time over their last three games. If Denver gets a 2 TD lead then we can forget about it. The last thing the Ravens want is to let Joe Fluco, yes I said Fluco throwing the ball with their offensive line protecting him against the #2 sack % team in the league in Denver. |
|||||||
01-07-13 | Alabama v. Notre Dame +10 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Notre Dame +10 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love this match up and though I don't believe either team was as good as the media has glorified them this will be a better match up than last year. I went over extensively each team's resume to take a look at their statistical rankings and who they faced. Notre Dame faced 10 bowl teams along the way while Alabama faced 7 bowl teams. Neither one of those teams opponents had winning records in bowl games if you can believe it. The weak teams on Alabama's schedule are far weaker than the ones on Notre Dames schedule as Alabama has even played a FCS school while Notre Dame has not. At the end of the day here is how I see this game. Both teams are in tops in rushing play % and both are successful at doing so with Notre Dame ranking 34th in rushing play% and 21st in rushing play %. They did it against an average run defense (ypc) of 59.9 and faced 5 top 50 run defenses along the way averaging 4.31 ypc in those games. Alabama's rushing offense is a bit better and they run the ball more ranking 16th with a 61% run play call. They were 9th in ypc average against an average run defense (ypc) of 58 (similar to Notre Dame). They faced 7 top 50 run defenses and averaged 5.10 ypc although I think many could argue based on how Georgia played down the stretch that they were not a top 50 run defense but in fact they ranked 50th (they played two FCS foes), so I believe the numbers are a bit skewed, but even so both teams are good at running the ball. Notre Dame is very under rated they have a QB that's mobile and can run along with 3 other options at tailback including Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick (who has SEC speed). George Atkinson is also in the mix and might be the fastest player on the field tonight (you'll see him on kick off returns). On the flip side rushing defense numbers were similar. Alabama showed some holes down the stretch allowing 3.5 ypc, but they went up against 5 top 50 programs and held them to 2.97 ypc while Notre Dame who was ranked 12th overall in ypc allowed went up against 4 top 50's and held them to 3.59 ypc. I believe both teams can have success running the ball here. Notre Dame is not used to being run on ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rushing %, and I think Alabama won't do what they did last year by throwing the ball instead of passing. I believe Nick Saban thinks he can wear down Notre Dame because of this fact, but to me that won't result in Alabama covering the spread because Notre Dame is still very under rated with their front led by Tuit, Nix, and Lewis-Moore. This was a team that was #1 in red zone defense by a far margin only allowing 24% TD's that's compared to Alabama who allowed 51.85%. So now onto the passing games. Everett Golson got better each week while all AJ McCarron did was be #2 in the nation in QB rating. However, Golson faced better pass defenses. I did the math and McCarron went up against opposing pass defenses ranked 76th in completion % defense, and 72nd in opposing QB rating on average. While Golson went up against 61st and 40th respectively. Golson does not have gaudy numbers but he brings a different element to the game being a mobile passer. Alabama was 9th in sack % this year but they went up against an average 72nd ranked QB protection unit. Notre Dame is actually 35th in pass protection and Golson was only sacked 1% over his last 3 games. Alabama was 92nd in sack % and that's why they run the ball so much. McCarron is great when the running game is working, but when it's not and he's forced to pass the Bama offensive line is not as good as advertised in protecting him. That's probably why he struggled against the 3 good defenses on his schedule. Vs. LSU, A&M, and Georgia. McCarron did not play crazy good only completing 58% of his passes, 636 yards and 3 TD while throwing 3 INT. If we take a look at Golson against good pass defense teams and he faced plenty of elite pass defense teams in Michigan State, Stanford, and Oklahoma (29th in pass defense), He did not make mistakes 2 TD and 0 INT. I won't be shocked to see him play better than McCarron in that department and that's the way Notre Dame has won all year. Red Zone defense and make the other QB to make a mistake. It will be a major challenge for them, but I think 10 points is far far too many. |
|||||||
01-06-13 | Arkansas State -3 v. Kent State | Top | 17-13 | Win | 106 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
[b]Arkansas State -3+100 4** POD[/b]
Kent State will come into this game with their head coach despite him taking a job to coach Purdue. He has been doing two jobs this time, but he said his main goal was to win a bowl game and a MAC championship. He came up close but failed against Northern Illinois and now I think he falls short here against Arkansas State, who may just be the best team they have faced all year long. Arkansas State just has more balance offensively with Ryan Aplin at QB and David Oku at RB compared with Kent State which is a run first team led by dynamic Dri Archer. Kent States defense is led and reliant on creating mistakes. They have forced 38 on the year and they have 33 sacks, but the problem in this game is Ryan Aplin, the best QB that Kent State has faced all year does not get sacked ranking 19th in fewest sack % and he does not turn the ball over completing 67.7% of his throws and only 4 interceptions while throwing for 23 TDs. Arkansas States defense really played well down the stretch in the red zone holding opponents to 30% TD s over their last 4 while their offense was scoring at over an 80% clip. Their offense is more balanced than Kent State as I mentioned ranking 14th in third down conversion percentage while Kent State was 86th and only coverted 32% over their last 3 games. Spence Keith is known for turning the ball over for Kent State and I dont think this team can win this game unless they win the turnover battle in a big way, but I dont think it will happen tonight. |
|||||||
01-06-13 | Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 24-14 | Win | 105 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
4.5** pod
|
|||||||
01-06-13 | Indianapolis Colts +7.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 9-24 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
2.2** play
|
|||||||
01-05-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
Bengals +4.5
|
|||||||
01-05-13 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 37 m | Show |
[b]Pittsburgh +3.5 4.4** ncaaf play of the day[/b]
Well look here maybe the Big East is not nearly as bad as everyone thought. Or maybe Florida was just not motivated to play in the Sugar Bowl. I doubt it, and now the Big East 4-0 vs. the SEC and I think they get another favorable match up here with Pitt having an excellent defense playing inspired football down the stretch. While they lost to Louisville, Syracuse, and Cinci this year they beat a good Rutgers team in dominant fashion. They were also minutes away from beating Notre Dame on their own field but ended up losing by 3. Tino Sunseri has come a long way under Paul Chryst who was the Wisconsin OC for years. It seems Sunseri fixed his issues of throwing interceptions he has just 2 on the season with 19 TDs and has over 3,000 yards thats better than Mississippi's Bo Wallace who threw 15 interceptions and for less yards. I also think despite what the stats say that Pitt has the better running back in Ray Graham. Dont believe me, Graham rushed for 172 yards on 24 carries on Notre Dames elite run defense. Though Miss faced several tough opponents in the SEC they struggled vs. teams that could pass the ball. I think Pitt shows a lot here with Chryst staying on to coach despite all the rumors hes not going anywhere and this team will finally have their head coach for a bowl game unlike the last two years. |
|||||||
01-04-13 | Texas A&M -3 v. Oklahoma | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 49 h 57 m | Show |
Texas AM -3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
This is a rematch of a game last year in Oklahoma where Oklahoma won being +3 in turnover margin. Texas AM has actually lost 8 of their last 9 vs. Oklahoma but I'm confident they'll reverse that here today against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. First off Oklahoma is going ot have a very hard time being 100th in the league allowing over 5 yards per carry going up against A&M who has 4 rushing threats that all average 4.7 ypc or greater including the Heisman winner Johny Manziel. Their offensive line averages 25lbs more than Oklahoma's weak defensive line. A&M is also 4th in plays per game and like to push the tempo and that's just going to be bad news for an Oklahoma front that lacks any depth on the line and there is a reason their top 4 tacklers are all defensive backs. On the flip side many could argue that Oklahoma is just as good at passing the ball and A&M ranking 83rd in pass yards allowed are just as bad as Oklahoma is at stopping the run, but I differ. Oklahoma hardly played any other teams that could get to the QB which is a huge reason they are 6th in fewest sack %. A&M is 35th at getting to the QB and Oklahoma faced only two teams better which was Notre Dame who beat them on their own field and Kansas State who also beat them on their own field. In fact Kansas State seems like a spitting image of what Texas A&M is and likes to do but only better and more capable of putting up points. A&M is also 39th in opposing QB rating and once again Oklahoma only faced two better in Notre Dame in TCU which their offense strugled against averaging 16.5pts which won't get it done in this game. |
|||||||
01-03-13 | Kansas State +9 v. Oregon | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Kansas St +8.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Many thought this was going to be the national championship. This game is an interesting because these are two teams that love to run the ball first with Oregon ranking 9th running it 64.25% of the time and Kansas State 12th at 62.8%. Both these teams are also ranked 1 and 2 in points per play with Kansas State being #1. Kansas State is used to playing teams that push the pace facing 6 other teams in the top 25 in points per play while Oregon only played one other which gives you some perspective on the offenses these two defenses have faced. Kansas State likes to run their offense and hold onto the ball ranking 120th while Oregon is 6th in plays per game, but as mentioned both are good at running the ball, but who is better at stopping it? Kansas State is the answer they are ranked 27th allowing 3.7 ypc, but take out the Baylor game and they would allow just 3.25ypc compared to Oregon who is ranked 63rd allowing 4.2 ypc. Kansas State faced an average opponent ranked 50th in ypc rushing while Oregon faced much weaker competition averaging 65th. Despite that he allowed 200+ 4 times and allowed over 4 ypc 7 times. While Kansas State against better rushing offenses allowed 200+ 1 time and 4.0ypc 2 times. I think we have already proven that the Big 12 was stronger than the Pac 12 this year as they are 2-0 SU and ATS in head to head match ups this season. Overall the Big 12 is already 5-2 while the Pac 12 is just 2-4. Chip Kelly is just 1-2 in bowl games in his career. Defenses seemed to be able to prepare for this style of offense. |
|||||||
01-02-13 | Louisville +14.5 v. Florida | 33-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
LOU/FL U48 3.3* play / Louisville +14.5 2.2* NCAAF Play
I get why everyone is seeing Florida blow out Louisville. I too faded this team down the stretch, but I just can not go against Louisville and Terry Bridgewater in this spot. Bridgewater is from Florida and has to have his motivation as a leader and around at a high level. Florida on the other hand has not been known this year for blowing teams out. They simply want to play quality defense and stay on the field on offense via their running game. Now Louisville could struggle against the run, but at times this year they have shown they can stop good running teams. They stopped North Carolina cold earlier in the seasonw ho is ranked 19th in rushing ypc average. North Carolina later in the year ran for over 5 yards per carry against a Maryland defense that was ranked 19th vs. the run so they certainly had a quality rushing team. I think Louisville can sell out to stop the run again this year and Florida is just bad enough at converting third downs (72nd in the nation) while Louisville themselves are ranked 19th on offense to stay on the field longer than the Gators. When I look at what the Gators did this year you see some of their games against weak competition in Lafayette and Bowling Green where those two teams hung in there. Now if Louisville can limit the turnovers I don't see this team blowing Louisville off the field. As much as you can see this is the best rushing team Louisville has faced all year you can also say it's the best passing team that Florida has faced playing a run happy conference. Much of this secondary really has not been tested like Louisville can test them. So really both teams have one dimensional offenses going into this game which is why I really like the under here. Florida won't mess with the running game in my opinion they are ranked 124th which is last in the nation being sacked 12.92% of their drop backs. In addition Louisville only turned the ball over 12 times this year which should allow them to stay in the game. |
|||||||
01-01-13 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
Wisconsin +7 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
This may not be a truly sexy match up as many anticipated before the year started, but this game is going to be one of the better played games in my opinion. For Stanford it is business as usual the team only lost twice in a controversial OT game against Notre Dame and in a weird Thursday night game in Washington. For Wisconsin they started the year slow fired some coaches rebounded before dominating in the Big Ten Championship drubbing Nebraska by the score of 70-31 to come into the Rose Bowl with a ton of momentum. Wisconsin however is without their head coach who moved on, but taking over is former Wisconsin head coach Barry Alvarez. Alvarez is trying to become the first coach to win a Rose Bowl in three different decades, but here is a look at each team's scheme. Wisconsin's Scheme: This is pretty obvious that Wisconsin wants to run the ball. They were 6th in the nation in rushing play % with a 65.9%. They'll go up against a Stanford defense that prides itself on stopping the run and was ranked 3rd overall in rushing yards allowed. Wisconsin however only faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 25 in rushing offenses. They went 3-1 in those games with none of them being decided by more than a TD. Wisconsin could have several wrinkles in this game that could throw Stanford off guard. James White may spell the QB and run out of the wild cat and when they do decide to throw the ball it will be to Jared Abbrederis who is the best receiver on the field and could take over this game if both run defenses hold up. However, Stanford despite giving up a lot of yardage to QB's has been great at limiting them to just yards and not TD's allowing just 114 QB rating and 12 TD's and 14 interceptions. Now let's take a look at Stanford's scheme to see if they are a mortal lock to win this game. Stanford's Scheme: Much like the Badgers the Cardinals love to run the ball ranking 35th in rushing play %. Over the last 3 games though they ran even more and that resulted in a Pac 12 Championship. They to went through some growing pains at the QB position before settling on Kevin Hogan who is only a freshmen, but played lights out converting 73% of his throws. Stanford however will have its hands full going against a top 15 defense that can stop the run and the pass. Wisconsin really only struggled stopping the run against Nebraska. Take that game out and this unit was ranked 10th nationally allowing just 3.10 ypc. Stanford runs a pro style offense and may have to turn to Hogan to win this game which he's fully capable of doing as we saw in the Pac 12 Championship. At the end of the day neither team has been known for getting blown out. Their defenses are just too strong, but I think what we saw from UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game is a sign of things to come. Wisconsin plays physical running ball and Monte Ball will have a nice game. On the outside Wisconsin has more of a passing threat with Abbrederis and a better pass defense while their rushing offense has been better too. LB Mike Taylor and Chris Borland will dominate on defense for Wisconsin. |
|||||||
01-01-13 | Nebraska v. Georgia -8 | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Georgia -8.5 3.3* play
I think Georgia and Mark Richt have a lot to prove coming off the SEC Championship loss for the 2nd year in a row and I think they'll dominate this game from start to finish. Nebraska looked awful in the Big Ten Championship and Bo Pelini has taken his team to 4 conference championship in his 5 years at the helm and is 0-4. He has not won a big game and he's lost the last two bowl games by double digits. Nebraska may have the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, but they are 8th in terms fewest passing attempts against. They did not face a single balanced attack all year long and they allowed 5 yards per carry and were shreaded in their conference championship allowing 539 yards to Wisconsin. Look for Todd Gurley to have a huge game as this run defense is soft they also allowed 344 yards to UCLA and 371 to Ohio State. Georgia actually has a passing game they will have to worry about unlike the other teams that ran all over them. On offense Nebraska gets by with the run game and on paper that looks to be where they can beat Georgia, but without any passing threat Georgia will be able to tee off on the run. Look for Jarvis Jones to get to Taylor Martinez before he gets going and that will set them up in obvious passing situations. Georgia's secondary was not at full strength to begin the year with suspensions, but once everyone returned this team only allowed 3 passing TD's in their last 7 games and on the season had 109 QB hurries, and that's a team that was 7th in fewest passing attempts against. |
|||||||
01-01-13 | Northwestern -1 v. Mississippi State | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
Northwestern -1 3.3* EB Play
Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job with this team over the last few years, but now it's finally time to get a bowl victory and I think they lucked out with a winnable match up. Fitzgerald should have the advantage in this game and I'm betting they end their bowl win drought that dates back to 1949. Miss State on the other hand is 5-0 in their last 5 but they closed the season losing 4 of their last 5 after dominating against a cupcake schedule earlier in the year. Miss State has gotten it done by winning the turnover battle as they were +20 in their wins and -3 in their 4 losses. Well guess what Northwestern has just 12 turnovers on the year and is +13. IF anything I see Northwestern being able to win the turnover battler here today. Miss State will have to contend with a dual threat QB in Kain Colter and we saw how they were embarrassed when they went up against Johny Manziel. Northwestern will run the ball 60% of the time and Miss State is 65th allowing 4.3 ypc. ON the flip side Northwestern's run defense is 28th and allows 3.7 ypc they were 0-2 when they allowed more than 150 yards while Miss State was 0-4 when they could not break the 100 yard barrier. Northwestern should be able to shut down the run in this game making Miss State pass it which is something they are comfortable doing, but Tyler Russell is good for a game where he does not complete 60% of his passes and with all the time to prepare Northwestern should be able to do that as Miss State was 101st in third down conversions this year and there were a couple games where Russell could not complete 50% of his passes against bad pass defenses (Troy and South Alabama come to mind). On the other side I think Northwestern will be able to pass the ball a bit as Miss State is terrible at getting to the QB. Despite having two NFL CB in Johnathan Banks and Darius Slay this team still allows QB's to complete 65% of their passes. Northwestern QB's have combined for just 4 interceptions and are smart and I think they'll take what is given to them which will mean a victory for Northwestern. |
|||||||
12-31-12 | Clemson v. LSU -6 | 25-24 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
LSU -5.5 3.3* PLAY
LSU comes from the big bad conference of the SEC, while Clemson plays in the unimpressive ACC. Both teams rely on the running game more than the passing game. Which probably shocks some considering Clemson has two dynamic receivers, but it would appear that Clemson does not have the pass protection to fully take advantage of that talent thus they run the ball about 55% of the time. We saw it when LSU faced SEC South Carolina to close out the season as they were man handled by A&M's pass rush which is among the best in the country. Now LSU has a pretty strong pass rush ranked 36th and Sam Montgomery could be the guy to steal the show. Tajh Boyd had a really good year for Clemson, but the QB struggled against the two SEC teams he faced with a 122 and a 106 QB rating. Now he faces a defense that was better than both Auburn and South Carolina. The thing is it will have to be him to win this game because LSU's run defense is so strong ranked 8th and Andre Ellington has not proven that he can run it against good run stop units as they average less than 3.4 ypc against the three top 20 run defenses they faced this year. On the other side you will have LSU's rushing attack which has a ton of depth and fresh legs grind out this game. Clemson is 67th in run defense allowing 4.3 ypc and hasn't faced a physical rushing attack like this. LSU's offensive line should dominate this game and they'll have plenty of balance with Zach Mettenberger proving down the stretch that he can be an effective QB. He had three solid games before his last one against Arkansas (who has a really good pass defense). His other games against Alabama, Miss State and Miss are nothing to sneeze about and here today he gets to go up against Clemson ranked 82nd vs. the pass. Dabo Sweeney has yet to prove he can win the big game while Les Miles has won 6 of his last 8 bowl games and is usually money with extra time to prepare. Clemson lost 70-33 to a bad West Virginia team a year ago in their bowl and have lost 5 of 6. |
|||||||
12-31-12 | Iowa State -1.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
Iowa State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay, so these teams met in week 1 and Tulsa lost..Normally I'd lean toward the revenge factor, but these teams are totally different at this point in the season. I think Tulsa is content winning their conference championship. Meanwhile you have Paul Rhoads coaching this team as a blue collar bunch. They play a gritty style of football that is hard not to root for and back. The difference in this game is going to be Iowa State's defense despite missing Jake Knott they will be able to concentrate on the run as Tulsa is a one dimensional offense. Iowa State faced many offenses this season that could throw and pass the ball. Iowa State turned to a freshman QB late in the season that provided a spark in Sam Richardson. Richardson did face some weak pass defenses, but I think his ability to avoid the rush will allow him to win this game along with his talented groups of running backs. |
|||||||
12-31-12 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. USC | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech +7.5 3.3* play
Tech is 4th in rushing play % while USC is 24th in passing play % so both teams have opposite schemes. USC had major issues tackling this year and I see that being a major issue in this game especially considering USC can't be very excited to be here. Georgia Tech on the other hand has to be absolutely thrilled to be in the Sun Bowl playing against a big program like USC. USC meanwhile was a pre season #1. You can't sleep on Tech's defense either this is a group that blanked FSU's in the 2H of the ACC championship led by Jeremiah Ataochu who has 10 sacks. Tech will also get RB Orwin Smith back who is averaging over 9 yards per carry. USC will have some issues stopping this offense with Monte Kiffin stepping down. Kiffin still involved for this game has had major issues putting effective game plans for option offenses and adjusting to the new generation offense which is the offense. On the other-side Mac Whittick makes his second start and struggled vs. Notre Dame. |
|||||||
12-30-12 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 17-23 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
Ravens +3 +100 3.5* play
This is another interesting early game. Many believe the Ravens have nothing to play for, but I'm not sure the Bengals want to win this game and have to face the Patriots, Texans or Broncos next week. Meanwhile the Ravens have the mindset that they are going to have to play on the road in tough environments if they want to go anywhere and win this year and this is a great opportunity for them to prime for it. The Bengals although they won last week to get into the playoffs have not been playing great football and they have lost their last 4 to the Ravens. The Ravens Joe Flaco has played extremely well vs. the Bengals posting a 106.9 QB rating over his last 4 vs. the Bengals while Ray Rice has complimented him rushing for 7 TD's in that span. The Bengals have been stopping the run allowing 2.5 ypc over their last 3 to pull into 10th place in ypc run defense, but if you look at their schedule they have not faced elite RB. They missed Lesean Mccoy when they faced the Eagles recently and their other two games in their last 3 span were against the Steelers (26th in ypc rushing offense) and the Cowboys (31st). You have to go back to Week 11 for for when the Bengals faced an elite RB and that was Jamal Charles who ran for a 5.11 ypc on 17 carries. Look for Baltimore to get the game going with their running game here today. I expect Ray Rice to have a big first half and Bernard Pierce can spell him and carry the load in the 2nd half. Pierce is a dangerous rusher with a lot to prove he's got a 5.2 ypc this year on 86 carries and is very similar to Ray Rice. At the end of the day I like for the Ravens defense to continue their momentum on defense from last week where they held their opponent to 186 total yards their lowest of the year. They already have Andy Dalton's number as he's completed just 54% of his throws and 1 TD while throwing 4 interceptions in his career. IT's not like Dalton has been a difference maker he was sacked 6 times and picked off 2 x against the Steelers last week while Big Ben gave them the game. |
|||||||
12-30-12 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions +3 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
Lions +3 -105 5.25* NFL POD/ Lions +145 2* play;
The Lions are desperate for some sort of positive energy to close out the season and beating the Bears and knocking them out of the playoffs would be just that thing. Honestly the Bears don't deserve to be road favorites at this point. They have lost 5 of 7 games and even though the Lions have been unable to beat this team and have lost 7 straight themselves they are a team that can beat any team in the NFL. The last match up they dominated against the Bears sacking Cutler 5 times and holding him to 150 yards passing. The difference was Cutler made no mistakes and the Lions turned the ball over 4 times. In the end the game was still there for the Lions despite their poor play as they lost 13-7. That all happened in Chicago and now this game being in Detroit with Matt Forte banged up. I just see the Lions being able to get over the hump with something to look forward to next year. |
|||||||
12-29-12 | Oregon State v. Texas +3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
Texas +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before I get into all the stats I have some key stats about Texas and Oregon State and who they played. Oregon State faced 4 top 50 rushing offenses and 3 top 50 passing offenses on the year and overall that led to a very good defensive statistical season, and on paper it appears that they have the better defense than Texas however I don't believe that's the case. Texas had to face many balanced offenses in Big 12 play as they faced off against 6 top 25 passing teams and 8 top 50 rushing offenses. Now they get to face an offense that's ranked 99th in ypc rushing average and obviously can pass the ball with some of the better teams, but Texas now gets to sick their 31st sack % group against Oregon State. Texas sack unit is even under rated really they faced a ton of QB's and OL's that get rid of the ball quick and protect their QB. I think Oregon State is making a major mistake going with Cody Vaz at QB who is not nearly as accurate as Sean Mannion completing less than 60% of his throws. He has not turned the ball over and that seems to be the main reason they are making the change. Oregon State's defense meanwhile will have to face a balanced offense that leads with a power run game. Texas is ranked 11th in QB rating and 38th in rushing ypc average. Oregon State did not play any teams with the exception of Oregon that had a balanced offense and could hurt them with both the run and the pass and to me that will be the difference in this game. There is a reason Texas has converted over 50% of their third downs and over 70% of their red zone trips into TD's. Oregon on the other hand only 34% of their third downs and their red zone defense is just not quite as good as Texas and Oregon State went against worst offenses as we mentioned earlier. At the end of the day some times bowl games come down to who is motivated and this game will be played in Texas and Texas is facing a 13th ranked team in Oregon State so they should be up for this game. Also we just saw Baylor another Big 12 team embarrass UCLA last night and that came was played on the West Coast. |
|||||||
12-29-12 | West Virginia v. Syracuse +4 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Syracuse +4 4.4* play; Syracuse +10.5/O65.5 2.4* bonus
Pretty obvious why I like the over here, both teams are ranked in the top 25 as far as tempo goes with plays per game and when they have faced teams that like to speed up the game they have given up a ton of points, but West Virginia gave up many more. The Mountaineers faced 5 top 32 teams in plays per game and in those 5 games they gave up about 50.2 ppg. Syracuse meanwhile only faced two teams in the top 40 and allowed 42 and 27 points. Both teams are poor in the red zone as far as defense goes. Syracuse gave up 100% on 7-7 against USC and Northwestern. Their stats against the Big East were better, but that's the Big East so expect lots of TD's and not FG's in this one. Overall though I think Syracuse has the edge and has West Virginias number. Syracuse does not lean as much on the pass as West Virginia does, but the way to stop Geno Smith is with a pass rush. That's a huge advantage for Syracuse in this game. Geno Smith has been very good but he's gone up against an average opponent pass rush ranked 80th. Syracuse is nothing special but ranked 43rd in sack % and are a very aggressive unit as they had 90 tackles for loss led by DL Brandon Sharpe. They can force some third and longs because of that stat as West Virginia has allowed 81 tackles for loss so it won't be shocking. Meanwhile Syracuse offensive line is as strong as they've had in over a decade. Ryan Nassib has been sacked just 14 times all year and West Virginia has literally no pass rush they are ranked 96th this year and that's part of the reason why they have only forced 18 turnovers and rank 119th in passing yards allowed. This is just a bad match up for West Virginia as Syracuse has an excellent and efficient passing game behind Ryan Nassib who works out of the shotgun, but don't sleep on the running game as Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson Gulley combined for 1,636 yards this season. The combination of Syracuses agressive defense and the game being in their own backyard along with them actually being better on third and 4th down has me liking the Orange to pull off an upset. West Virginia can't be happy about being in this bowl game after all the hype they had coming into the season and early in the season meanwhile Syracuse would love to beat their old rival that they beat last year 49-23 in a shocker. Syracuse has won 10 of their last 13 bowl games meanwhile the Mountaineers before winning against Clemson last year has been awful losing their previous 3 by double digits. |
|||||||
12-28-12 | Minnesota +13 v. Texas Tech | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Minnesota +13 3.3* play
This is another example of a coaching staff being completely stunned that their leaders have left. Tommy Tubberville took a job at Cincinnati which seems like a demotion and his OC is on his way to Kentucky with Mark Stoops. That will put the offensive line coach as the head coach and the receivers coach as the OC. That's no easy task with a team that wins with its offense. Jerry Kill who coaches Minnesota is a good coach and has Minnesota in a bowl game again after back to back 3-9 season and this team is ecstatic to be here. I believe Minnesota has the ingredients to keep this game close and possibly pull the upset. For one TExas Tech got pushed around towards the end of the year and they were one of the worst at getting to the QB so Minnesota should have time to throw and their running game will get going which is a rarity vs. a Tech team that has allowed 5.9 ypc over their last 3 games. Minnesota has lost games this year against teams that can stop the run. All of their wins came against teams that struggled vs. the run and all of their losses with the exception of Nebraska who was 106th vs. the run were top 50. Tech's front will be pushed around a bit and Minnesota should be able to hang onto the ball a bit and I think that will be enough for them to stay in this game. Seth Doege also has been prone to the interception late this year while their defense has only forced 10 turnovers all season. Minnesota is 2-0 when facing teams with top passing games as they beat both Western Michigan and Syracuse. |
|||||||
12-28-12 | Rutgers +2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
Rutgers +3 -120 buy 1/2 4.2* POD; Rutgers +8.5/U48 teaser 3.3* play
One thing is for sure both of these teams are bummed to be playing in this game. However, I can't back the Hokies in this game at all not only is Rutgers 5-0 in Bowl Games, but they are better at the things that have hurt Virginia Tech all year which I'll get to in a second. First of all Virginia Tech is a team that has leaned on the run in recent years and this year has been no different they are ranked 58th with a 53% rushing play call. However, Tech was 82nd averaging just 3.9 ypc, and Rutgers is ranked 9th allowing 3ypc and 2.5 over their last 3. This will quickly turn the game over to the hands of Logan Thomas and that's not a good thing at least this season. Thomas is 85th in the nation in pass efficiency offense and has completed only 52.6% of his throw while throwing for 17 TD and 14 interceptions. Rutgers pass defense meanwhile has forced 29 turnovers and 16 interceptions while only allowing 12 TD's. Rutgers is better at forcing the turnovers and Virginia Tech has already lost to two Big East teams this year. Virginia Tech better look out for DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene who help fuel a team that had 85 TFL and 41 QB hurries. Virginia Tech's offensive line is leaky and allowed 40 QB hurries on Thomas this year. Rutgers 41 QB hurries is more than Arizona State, South Carolina and Boise State combined who are all in the top 5 in sack % defense. Although Rutgers defense is impressive Virginia Tech's is too ranking ahead of Rutgers in third down defense and also pretty stout against the run and pass, but at some point VT will have to stack the box and Rutgers has been capable of protecting their QB only allowed 8 sacks all year. That will give them one on coverage and Gary Nova can make the throws deep to his big talented receivers. Brandon Coleman, Tim Wright , and Mark Harrisson are all 6-3+ in height and Virginia Tech has had the tendency to give up big plays all year long. Another x factor has to be special teams in this match up. Virginia Tech has been prone to poor punting this year and Rutgers has a tendency to block kicks over the years look for that to be a huge advantage in this game. |
|||||||
12-27-12 | Baylor v. UCLA Bruins -3 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
UCLA -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love UCLA here, Baylor really came on strong at the end of the year while UCLA over achieved, but UCLA will play a defense that can not stop a nose bleed. Baylor was dead last allowing 58% conversions on third down and Johnathan Franklin should have a field day. Baylor's defense has gotten by forcing turnovers and taking them back for TD's they were 1-4 on the road and with this game being in San Diego I'm guessing their will be far many more UCLA fans in attendance. Baylor actually has run the ball a ton this year and UCLA was very good at stopping the run all year. Baylor is known more for their passing game, but Baylor runs the ball 53% of the time which you wouldn't think. At some point they will be forced to throw in this game and UCLA will bring it's 6th ranked pass rush something Baylor is not used to seeing. Baylor on the season saw an average 79th sack rush so facing UCLA is going to be something that will tilt the turnovers in UCLA's favor. UCLA actually forced more turnovers than Baylor this year and will have more balance on offense. |
|||||||
12-27-12 | Cincinnati v. Duke +9.5 | 48-34 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Duke +9.5 2.75* PLAY Duke +285 0.75* play
This is a huge game for Duke in their own back yard just 140 miles away from their campus going up against a Cincinnati team that has over achieved this year and already lost their head coach to Tennessee. It's their first bowl game in 18 years and they have not won a bowl game since 1960. Duke has to stop the run and although I don't think they can I think they can hold Cinci to field goals in this game. Duke's defense held opponents to 64% TD's in the red zone, but Cincinnati only converted 50% of their RZ trips into TD's. Duke also has a very under rated secondary that's full of veterans that should be able to come up with a few interceptions in this game. Meanwhile Duke has an experienced QB in Sean Renfree who will be throwing the ball to Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder who will challenge a Cinci secondary that can be beat and will be beat in this game. Duke's defense at times has stopped the run and they will be well prepared for this game, They held a Stanford offense to 3.54 ypc earlier in the year. The challenge for Duke will be passing on Cinci, but Cinci's has only allowed 11 TD passes in 12 games, but to be perfectly honest they played a lot of teams that were not very good in passing the ball and I think that's the biggest key here. I looked at several average opponent ranks for Cinci's pass defense. Duke's statistical ranking was much higher than those averages for example. Completion percentage, Duke is ranked 39th in the nation and Cinci faced an average opponent ranked 65th. Completions per game, Duke is ranked 14th and Cinci faced an average opponent ranked 63rd, and lastly sacked %. Duke ranked 29th in fewest sack % while Cinci faced an average 67th opponent. Renfree gets the ball out of his hands fast and is accurate and I think Duke can very well win this game. It will be windy for this game but in recent years we have seen that this has not played much of a factor. If anything that only makes Cinci more one dimensional. |
|||||||
12-27-12 | Bowling Green +7.5 v. San Jose State | 20-29 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Bowling Green +7.5 3.3* play; 7pt teaser BG +14.5/U52 2.6* -130
This game features two conference defensive player of the years on each team which fuel top 15 pass rushes that will change the game here tonight. I'm going with Chris Jones and Bowling Green's interior pass rush over San Jose to have the bigger impact and I'll tell you why. San Jose which had a 8.21 sack % on the year was not as good downt he stretch with 5.41% while Bowling Green was better with a 9.42 sack % and 12.77 over their last three. Bowling Green's QB Matt Schilz rarely gets sacked ranked 16th in the nation only being sacked 3.12% of drop backs 1.09% over their last 3 while San Jose was 64th with a 5.78 sack %. San Jose has faced 3 top 50 pass protection units and the results were not good. Those offenses averaged 36 points per game as San Jose went 1-2 with the lone lose being against a very good LA Tech team that just doesn't play defense ranked 124th (dead last) in yards allowed. Bowling Green on the other hand is ranked 7th in yards allowed. People need to wake up and realize the MAC is a very good conference and this line is no indication that it will happen soon. Bowling Green did have a weak schedule for the most part, but they are playing with a huge chip on their shoulders after they were nearly passed over for this game and a bowl game at all. Three things happened in their favor that got them into this game, LA Tech opted out, Uconn lost their last game and Northern Illinois got a BCS bowl game. Bowling Green is going to come with their pass rush and David Fales who has been excellent all year could have some issues. He had his worst game against Stanford who ironically is just 1 place behind Bowling Green in sack %. Bowling Green also has 29 hurries to go along with their 3rd ranked sack % group. To put things in perspective for Fales, he's only been hurried 6 times this year and their defense has just 16 hurries themselves, advantage Bowling Green. Also don't sleep on Bowling Green's offense which to me is more capable of having a balanced attack than San Jose who on paper is completely one dimensional. San Jose gave up 818 yards passing in their last 2 games and junior Matt Schilz is fully capable of moving the chains and picking up yards. Bowling Green will have an excellent shot at winning this game if they can convert in the red zone where they are about 50% for TD's which is very similar to San Jose's offense and defense. Neither team's offense is good in the red zone and both teams defenses are very good at holding opponents to FG's which is why I also like the under in my teaser. |
|||||||
12-26-12 | Central Michigan +6.5 v. Western Kentucky | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +7 -120 buy
|
|||||||
12-24-12 | SMU +13 v. Fresno State | 43-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
SMU +13 3.3* NCAAF Play
I like SMU here and I'll lean on the experience of their head coach June Jones who has been in this posistion before of being a big dog in a bowl game. Often times he comes up with huge victories. The game against Nevada comes to mind. Fresno State has been a covering machine all year 11-1 ATS and it has to catch up to them at some point and I think this is the perfect time. Tim DeRuyter is a first year coach and it's a little unkown on how he can get his players up for this game. For many of these players this is a vacation and for June Jones and SMU this was a place he called home for years when he was the Hawaii coach so he's going to be better at handling the distractions. On paper Fresno looks like the sure winner, but a few things to keep in mind in this one. SMU is capable of dominating the time of possession they were ranked 6th in the nation in that category and RB Zach Line is capable of taking this game over against Fresno's most glaring weakness their run defense. After looking at this match up I wouldn't be surprised to see Fresno sell out to stop the run, but for June Jones and his offense to come out passing the ball with Gilbert who has been much better down the stretch as he has not committed an interception over the last 5 games which will be a very important stat in this game. Both teams are among the best in the nation at forcing turnovers and if SMU can somehow win that battle they would have a good chance at winning this game. As far as strength of schedule goes hands down SMU has had the more challenging road to a bowl game facing Baylor, TCU, and Texas A&M in non conference games compared to Fresno who did face Oregon, but Boise State and Tulsa. Tulsa is the common opponent which SMU beat at home and Fresno lost on the road. The difference was turnovers and the running game. SMU ran all over Tulsa for 5.5 ypc while Fresno only averaged 3.6 and was +10 yards in the game despite losing. I think we could see a game that's similar and don't sleep on SMU in the red zone as Fresno's offense down the stretch was only able to convert 42% of their red zone opportunities into TD's. SMU got better down the stretch with 66% conversions. At the end of the day this is not a huge play for me, but I've seen it a thousand times with a team like Fresno and we have even seen it from Fresno when they dominate in the regular season take 30 days off and they are not the same team. June Jones is a good coach and he even had his team practice for 2+ hours the other day for what he called his longest bowl practice. I think they will be well prepared and play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. |
|||||||
12-23-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 13-10 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Steelers -2.5 -125 2.5* play
Until I see the Bengals get by their two division rivals who they have lost 9 straight against I can't bet them. Pittsburgh off a big loss and returns home to take on the Bengals who they have dominated. Pittsburgh might actually get pressure on the QB in this game which could be a huge advantage for them. Andy Dalton is getting sacked more than 10% of his drop backs over the last 3 games and he's ranked 25th in the league on the year. The Steelers meanwhile feature Big Ben who we all know is capable of avoiding the rush and making plays which he'll have to here tonight. IN the first match up in Cinci the Steelers had 431 yards to the Bengals 184. Andy Dalton had just 105 yards passing on 14-28. Now this is not a huge play because the Steelers will be without Ike Taylor who shut down AJ Green the last time these two played, but even without Ike I think the Bengals have had too much trouble protecting the QB that they will lose. They have been winning games of late by running the ball not throwing, but against the Steelers they won't be able to run as Pittsburgh has allowed just 3.4 ypc on the season. |
|||||||
12-23-12 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Saints +3 -120 buy 1/2 4.2* play
The Saints defense just shout out the Bucaneers and they still have a shot to get into the playoffs. Really who would have thought that this defense could shut out any college offense never mind an NFL one. Meanwhile Dallas has gotten back to back lucky wins vs. the Browns and Steelers. Now Jerry Jones is touting them as this years NY Giants. Give me a break the Cowboys still do not have that type of momentum and it's mainly because they are poorly coached in my opinion. The Cowboys have trailed in all of their games during their win streak in the 4th quarter. What Jason Garret needs to do in this game is runt he ball with Demarco Murray, but I am predicting that Drew Brees will get up early this game and Garret is not the patient type to stick to the run. There is a reason the Cowboys are 3rd in the league in passing play % and that won't allow them to take full advantage of the Saints weakness on defense which is stopping the run. It's all going to come down to effectiveness in the red zone and I think the Saints are far more balanced offensively and have more red zone threats than the Cowboys do. Statistically the Saints are #2 in the league while the Cowboys are 26th in red zone offense. Third down defense will also be a key factor and that's where the Saints are playing really well of late holding opponents to 28% in their last 3 games combined while the Cowboys are holding opponents to 45.5% over their last 3. I just don't see how Jerry Jones can tout his team if he's actually watched them at times this year. They are a team that's dead last in penalties per game 24th in turnover margin and when they can not sack the QB even their defense struggles. Drew Brees is 6th in sacked % with just 4% of his drop backs resulting in sacks. He should be able to work the middle of the field and take advantage of the Cowboys weakness. |
|||||||
12-22-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5 | Top | 31-18 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Lions +4 5.5* NFL POD The Falcons just came off a huge win over the Giants, the defending Super Bowl Champions so naturally this line will be inflated just a tad. The fact that the Lions came off a bad loss to the Cardinals makes this a huge play for me. Teams that have beat the SB champs are just 18-30 ATS the following week and over the last 10 years teams with 11 wins as road favorites are 9-29 ATS. I expect the Lions to play with a chip on their shoulder and being home on the holidays is a huge advantage in this spot.
|
|||||||
12-22-12 | Washington +6 v. Boise State | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Washington +5.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love the Huskies here today against Boise State. Washington may have lacked an identity on offense all year, but they have more talent on offense than Boise State as junior Keith Price should lead his team to a victory. Price will connect early and often with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins who in my opinion is the best TE in the nation. Price also has another option in Kasen Williams who is another sophomore with an NFL future. Both had 6 TD's this year as Price threw a total of 18, but the bigger key is whether or not Washington can run the ball. Bishop Sankey really came on strong at the end of the year with 15 TD's in all and should be able to help the Huskies control the clock vs Boise State. |