Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-18-12 | Oregon -7.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 43-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Oregon -7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Todd Graham in Tempe has done a great job so far with his only loss coming on the road at Missouri, but now he |
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10-18-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -7 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
49ers -7 4.4* NFL POD; 49ERS -1/U44 2.2* Teaser
Once again I think the public |
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10-16-12 | Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5 v. North Texas | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
LA Lafayette -3.5 3.3* play
The home dog is not always the answer and tonight is one of those times it |
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10-14-12 | NY Giants +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Giants +7.5 -120 buy hook 3.5* play 49ers have flexed their muscles two weeks in a row feasting on bottom of the barrel QB's in Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez, but this week they have to face a two time Super Bowl winner in Eli Manning. There has been a lot of talk about how the 49ers are seeking revenge. I think the line in this game is off a bit because of how well the 49ers have played against two poor teams. I think the oddsmakers are stretching a bit here against the Giants one of the leagues best road teams. How good are the Giants on the road? We will find out if they can continue to prove people wrong on the road as they have in the last two years as under dogs. They also get Hakeem Nicks back which just fully solidifies the receiving corp that has many options for Eli. Last week they even started running the ball well. On defense the 49ers are 11th in third down conversions allowed. That's a little surprising and I think Eli Manning can have some success moving the chains. The Giants are ranked 7th in that category on defense and should be able to slow down the 49ers offense that is very much improved from last years championship game. Bottom line this game should be a back and forth defensive struggle and very similar to the championship game just a little bit more offense.
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10-14-12 | New England Patriots v. Seattle Seahawks +4 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 89 h 23 m | Show | |
PATRIOTS VS. SEAHAWKS +3.5 PREMIUM 3.3* PLAY
The Patriots head back out on the road to face the Seattle Seahawks in one of the most challenging environments at Century Link Field. Early odd sources are showing that the line opened up at -4 in favor of the Patriots and 60-75% of the public jumped on the Patriots. The line has moved to 3.5 and 3 in some place. This could be for several reasons... Early smart money or BIG MONEY coming in on Seattle and vegas is forced to move the lines to make the Patriots look more attractive in order to attempt to even out the money on both sides. Or some smart money is coming in on Seattle only to push the line to key number like -3 so that they can then go back and hammer the Patriots at a key number. However, I don't see that in this situation and I really like the Seahawks in this one. 1.) Patriots run game is clicking and they are running more than anyone in the league. |
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10-14-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns +3 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 40 h 37 m | Show | |
Browns +2.5 2.2* bonus
The Browns out gained the Bengals in week 2, and now they are likely to have the return of their star CB Joe Haden to keep AJ Green under wraps. Haden is not quite Revis Island but he's starting to get a lot of attention going back to last year as the Browns had the 2nd best pass defense. Bengals depth at RB took a big hit and they continue to be in love with the running game. On the other side the Browns very quietly look like they stole the NFL draft as Brandon Weeden continues to have success and put his team in situations to win. He has got to avoid the big mistake and I think returning home will allow him that ability against a defense he's already saw once this year. Bengals will see a few different things on defense from the Browns so I think the Browns will have a big advantage. Trent Richardson showed he can be dominant in this league and leads the team in rushing yards. He had 109 vs. the Bengals earlier in this year who don't possess the same defense from years past. Offensively the Bengals are a bit over rated as they have only converted 24.6% of their third downs. |
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10-14-12 | Dallas Cowboys +4 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 40 h 38 m | Show |
Cowboys +4 -115 5.5* NFL POD
I really like the Cowboys coming off the bye as they have had a chance to get healthy along the defensive line with Ratliff and Coleman returning who will make a huge running especially against the run. They were off a bye last year in a similar situation heading to NE as a TD under dog and they led late 16-13 before falling 16-20. Baltimore is not the Patriots and they have not been particularly dominant thus far. In Baltimores last two games they have shown weaknesses against the run and against the pass. They gave up 214 yards rushing to the Chiefs who don't hide the fact that they are going to run the ball and they gave up 320 yards passing to a rookie QB without any elite receivers. Cowboys have plenty of receivers and when given time Romo is capable of finding them. Austin and Dez Bryant are arguably as good of a tandem in the league and it's no coincidence that Dallas has lost their two games against top 10 sack %. Well not to worry because this is not the same Ravens pass rush or overall defense. They are 24th in sack % and if Jason Garrett is a decent offensive mind he will stop throwing the ball 68% of the time and get a balanced attack. I think the time off will help with that strategy. On third down the Cowboys have been better believe it or not ranking 12th on defense and 18th on offense which is better than the Ravens 16th and 24th rankings. In the end this will be a hard fought game resulting in the Cowboys having a shot to win or leading late. |
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10-13-12 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State -3 | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 44 h 10 m | Show | |
Miss State -3 2.2* bonus
For me each teams strength is a push. Tennessee's passing game vs. the NFL talent that Miss State has in their secondary with Johnathan Banks and Darius Slay. Both offensive lines don't allow sacks and both teams defensive lines don't get sacks. However, Tenn is off a bye, but Derek Dooley has proven to me that he's just not a good coach and he's actually 2-10 in the last three years in road games in the SEC. Miss State is a very capable team especially at home and Tennessee has Alabama looming the following week so you can bet at least some of the players have been looking ahead. In a game where it is strength for strength I look at some important factors and that's turnovers. This game will be decided on turnovers and MIss State has 9 interceptions already in 5 games and Bray already has thrown 6 and as a team the Volunteers have thrown 7. Miss State QB's have thrown just 2 interceptions. Miss State is 17th in opposing QB ratings allowing 106 and they have been better at home allowing 88 rating. Okay they haven't played anyone, but dating back to last year this group did the same they were ranked 27th overall and held opposing QB's to a 93.4 rating which was among the best in the nation. Tennessee also has the tendency to give up big plays and Miss State has a big plya weapon in Sr WR Chad Bumphis who has 6 TD on 21 receptions for 375 yards. The Volunteers CB's have proved nothing other than they are poor tacklers. Some other intangibles other than the fact that Dooley is just not a very good coach is that Tennessee's kicker has missed extra points in 4 of 5 games this year, they are 73rd in penalties and are 121st in ypc allowed allowing 6.1 ypc. Look for Miss State to win a close defensive slug fest 24-17. |
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10-13-12 | South Carolina v. LSU -2.5 | 21-23 | Loss | -113 | 69 h 2 m | Show | |
LSU -2.5 3.3* PLAY SEC Shocker
In sports betting we constantly talk about let downs and hang overs well South Carolina defeated Georgia last week and arguably have a more important game against Florida next week because it's a division game. Now they are clearly not looking a head but this is a big hang over spot for the Gamecocks after playing a great game against Georgia. Georgia had the reputation of being a top defense as they were last year, but I claim frauds! Georgia just gave up 79 points in two weeks so looking at South Carolina putting up 35 now does not look overly impressive. LSU's defense is a new level. LSU is ranked 2nd in the nation allowing just 207 yards/game behind only Alabama. South Carolina played two subpar defenses on the road in Vanderbilt and Kentucky and now they will go into a very challenging environment against a very angry team. Bottom line both teams can run the game and prefer to run the ball. In fact they are both in the top 10 in rushing play percentage and South Carolina runs the ball more on the road 70% of the time in fact while LSU runs the ball 65% at home. Who can run the ball better is going to play a huge factor in this game and right now there is no question that is LSU. For one LSU has 3 guys with 40+ carries and are averaging over 5 yards per carry. They also have Spencer Ware who is just under 5 yards per carry. This is the deepest group of running backs in the county. Yeah they do not have Marcus Lattimore, but that's a one man show despite Connor Shaw being able to run quite a bit. Shaw will not be able to run though against LSU's front 7 and if he does so it will be at a huge risk of injury. LSU is 25th overall with 5.9 ypc while South Carolina is 56th with a 4.4 ypc. They only average 4.3 ypc on the road and the two teams they faced were ranked 92nd, and 64th in run defense and now they face LSU who is 4th allowing just 2.3 ypc and 1.7 ypc at home. Ok so what happens when the running games fail because that is likely to happen in this game featuring two of the best defensive lines with NFL talent for both teams. It's going to be the team that's able to protect their QB better. Both teams are in the top 10 in sack % on defense to nobody's surprise while both teams are in the bottom half LSU 100TH, and South Carolina 109th in protecting their QB's. However the difference is the home team. LSU is only allowing 6.85% of their drop backs to result in a sack at home while South Carolina is 15%. No wonder South Carolina runs the ball 70% of the time on the road. LSU's Sam Montgomery could have a field day if he's allowed to. South Carolina was sacked 15% of their drop backs against Vanderbilt and Kentucky? Don't forget South Carolina has struggled converting third downs on the road converting 38% and that was against 3rd down defenses ranked 116 and 63rd. LSU is ranked 11th holding opponents to 29.58% conversions, 26.67% at home. |
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10-13-12 | TCU +7 v. Baylor | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show | |
TCU +7.5 -120 BUY 1/2 4* Play
Baylor has an even bigger Texas rivalry up next when they go on the road to face Texas, but first they play against TCU who is trying to revenge their loss last year to open up the 2011 season when they lost 50-48. TCU is actually limping into this game without their QB Casey Pachall and some RB depth has had an impact, but I think we get tons of value because of that and I"m not going to over react to TCU's loss at Iowa State. TCU turned the ball over 5 times last week and tha'ts not going to happen again this week. Baylor is dead last in pass defense and really has no semblance of a pass rush and their run defense is allowing 5.1 yards per carry. red shirt freshmen QB Trevone Boykin will have a better time going up against this defense than he did going up against Iowa State and the two best LB's in the Big 12 that they possess. Boykin will make lots of plays with his feet in this game and I really think it's something that Baylor is not prepared for despite having a bye. TCU also has excellent receivers that are not far off from the West Virginia group that torched Baylor's secondary. TCU has a good mix of speed and strength with JOsh Boyce, Brandon Carter and Skye Dawson who is a real threat to take it all the way. For as good as Baylor's offense has been people do not realize they have been mediocre on third down converting just 25% at home 5-20 against SMU and Sam Houston State. Baylor is also dead last 124th in third down defense while TCU is #1 in the nation in third down defense 21.43% conversions allowed 18% on the road. Now flip that over and TCU has struggled on third down, but facing Baylor's defense will definitely give TCU a bump in confidence they'll need for the rest of the Big 12 season. |
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10-13-12 | Utah State v. San Jose State -3 | 49-27 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 12 m | Show | |
San Jose State -2.5 -120 3.5* play
Suddenly Utah State's wins don't look as impressive and their offense is no longer clicking. They open up in the WAC against San Jose State, a team flying way way under the radar and is off a bye. Utah State is #1 in total defense in the WAC, but San Jose is #2 and San Jose is #1 in offense and they have played some good teams. Recently they dominated Navy's triple option defense holding them to 1.8 ypc and won 12-0 and this is a team that lost at Stanford despite holding them to 3.8 ypc by just 3 points and the reason was because of their 2 turnovers. Back at home led by their Jr QB David Fales who is completing nearly 75% of his passes I think they will be able to move the ball against Utah State defense that has not faced a team this season that will look to pass the ball. On average Utah State's defense has faced an average 79th passing offense and San Jose is 21st in the nation. Look out for Mackey Award nominee Ryan Otten who is having a great year and is one of several Seniors on this team. As I mentioned San Jose is not all offense and this will be a bit of a coming out party for them. They currently rank 2nd in the nation in sacks and Utah State QB Chcukie Keeton could have major issues here running for his life especially since San Jose State is more prepared for this game and are 40th against the run and fresh off defending the triple option. Sr DE Travis Johnson is having a great year already. 3rd downs, my favorite stat as mentioned it just clarifies what the other stats say. Both teams are good on defense ranked in the top 25 with San Jose actually being a bit better and 4% better at home compared to Utah St on the road. Offensively San Jose is ranked 26th and is converting 10% more third downs than Utah State who is ranked 72nd. Utah State is also 102nd in penalties and 102nd in turnover margin per game while San Jose is +1 turnover per game at home and they have a kicker that's 100% on field goals while Utah St is only hitting 57% of their field goals. San Jose is just a more complete team and Utah State is still living off some of their early season success that suddenly does not look as good. |
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10-13-12 | Stanford +7 v. Notre Dame | 13-20 | Push | 0 | 39 h 42 m | Show | |
Stanford +7 4.4* Shocker
Let's not over react to Notre Dame's 41-3 win over Miami as the Hurricanes have been awful all year. I really like Stanford despite their 617 yards allowed last week as they faced an Arizona team that really runs a different offense than any other team Stanford has faced. Bottom line Stanford won the game and put up 617 yards themselves giving their offense and QB confidence moving into a critical showdown against Notre Dame. Bottom line this is strength vs. strength as both teams like to run the ball and both defenses have been dominant at stopping the run. It will come down to which QB can move the ball better and Stanford's TE style offense will give Notre Dame issues. I'm still not sold on Notre Dame's QB choice in Everett Gholston and Stanford is led by a Junior that has full control over his emotions, he is able to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage and avoid mistakes. Gholston is just not at that level right now to make changes. If you look back at the last two match ups since Brian Kelly took over for Notre Dame one thing has been consistent Stanford has shut down Notre Dames offense and have been able to run the ball. Now Notre Dame's defense is way better than it has been in the past, but they also have a lot of catching up to do. Stanford held Notre DAme to 6 drives of 8 yards or less last year and Notre Dame really has not run the ball well at home only 2.2 ypc. They faced a couple of good run defense in Purdue and Michigan in close games decided by 7 points or less. Stanford's defense is much better ranked 10th against the run from a ypc perspective. I also believe Stanford is the better overall team than both of those Big Ten Schools. Notre Dame will have a hard time converting third downs as Stanford has held opponents to 23% on third down this year. That will force a lot of field goals and game ending drives resulting in a game that will absolutely in my opinion be decided by less than 7 points. Look for Stanford to come out throwing on first down with Nunes to catch Notre Dame off guard. It's something they've shown already this season. |
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10-13-12 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +7 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 11 m | Show |
Iowa State +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa State +220 1* bonus
This is probably my favorite game all year and I feel most confident with it as Iowa State matches up extremely well with Kansas State. This is a pretty big rivalry with the teams separated by 350 miles and have a history of 95 meetings. For Iowa State players they have never beaten Kansas State. The last 4 match ups have been decided by 8, 1, 7, and 7 points with 3 of those 4 played at Kansas State and the 1 point loss at Iowa State. With a team full of veterans that were part of the team that shocked Oklahoma State at home last year, Iowa State has the ingredients for the upset as Kansas State's offense is not to hard to figure out. Kansas State will runt he ball as they have ran the ball 71.67% of the time this year. Iowa State also will run the ball as they are ranked 43rd in running play % at 54.64%. This means the game is going to slow down quite a bit and Iowa State has arguably the two best linebackers in the Big 12 in Jake KNott and AJ Klein who lead a defense that's 29th in run defense form a yards per carry perspective and they have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses already this year. Kansas State is also very good at stopping the run, but they have yet to face a top 50 rushing offense. In last years match up Iowa State actually out gained Kansas State on the ground on the road and held Klein in check 26 carreis for 86 yards and 7-15 passing. However, 2 turnovers did not help their chances. Kansas State gets by and wins games by not turning the ball over and limiting their penalties well Iowa State is of the same brand as they are 5th in fewest penalties. Iowa State just came off a game against TCU where they were +4 in turnover margin. I believe that will carry over into this game and with QB Jared Barnett taking over the offense he has limited the mistakes and he's made some big plays down field with two 50+ yard touchdowns a week ago. 3rd down offense and defense is a key stat especially in close games like this and I think Iowa State holds an advantage despite Kansas State being #1 in third down defense in the antion. For one they have not faced a top 50 3rd down defense all year long (53, 75, 105, and 101st ranked 3rd down defenses) and now they face Iowa State who is ranked 36th holding opponents to 35.7%. On the flip side Kansas State's defense on third down leaves a lot to be desired as they have allowed 43.46% conversions and they have faced offenses ranked 110th, 49th, 109th and 31st. Overall I just think the resume of Iowa State is more impressive considering who they played. The idea that Iowa State can't run is a bit over rated since they have faced 4 defenses that are in the top 50 and 3 of those in the top 25. Kansas State has had a ton of success against poor run defenses with 3 of the 4 being outside the top 100 and the 4th ranked 77th. You could make an argument that Iowa State would be favored if they beat Texas Tech. Iowa State had troubles because they could not defend the pass and that's something they won't have to worry about too much in this game since Kansas State rarely passes. |
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10-12-12 | Navy +2 v. Central Michigan | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Navy +2 3.3* Friday Night Lights
Off a nice win last night we look to back that up on Friday night with the Midshipmen who I think have some momentum here after defeating Air Force last week as they will look to move to 3-3. |
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10-11-12 | Arizona State -22 v. Colorado | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
rizona State -22 3.3* play
Both teams come off a bye and the only two reasons I don't have this as a play of the day is Arizona State has Oregon at home next week and they are laying significant road chalk. However, my formulas give this game a 73% ATS edge and after looking over this play I really like it. The major reason I like it is Colorado is the worst offense in the PAC 12 and one of the worst in the country. They go up against Arizona State who is one of the best defenses in the country ranked 11th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. Colorado will have major issues because they are 108th in ypc on the ground and could be without their only offensive weapon in RB Christian Powell who won't be 100%. Arizona State has been effective stopping the run anyway, but turning to the pass game is going to be a major issue for the Buffaloes. Arizona State is #1 in sack % and they are top 5 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss. Colorado is 119th in sacks allowed and are last in the league in scoring points. Colorado is 104th in TO margin per game and I think we could see a few here on Thursday night because of hte pressure Arizona State will get from DT Will Sutton who is playing like an All American right now. The Sun Devils have really surprised me this year and we profited on them in their road win at California where they played extremely well. They also nearly pulled off a difficult win against Missouri out of the SEC and now winning at Colorado will not be a problem as Colorado is only converting 13% of their third downs at home. |
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10-11-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +7 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
Titans +6.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
I think there is tons of value here on the Titans. The public perception on both teams is slightly off and I think we are getting good value on the Titans at home as nearly a TD under dog. First of all the Steelers are ranked 22nd in total defense and 19th in total offense and have faced the 3rd easiest schedule this year while the Titans defense has struggled big time, but looking at the teams they |
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10-07-12 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Seattle +3 -125 buy 1/2 point Panthers really could tailspin here after their crushing loss to the Falcons. Now they get a tough game at home against the Seahawks who are 2nd in run defense and 2nd in yards per carry allowed. Meanwhile the Panthers are 26th in run defense and that should help Seattle move the ball. The Seahawks are also top 10 in all pass defense categories including QB rating, completion %, yards per completion and yards per game. If Seattle can avoid the mental mistakes they should win this game outright. Carolina has no played a defense this good since they faced the Bucaneers who are top 5 in run defense but not as good against the pass. Their other opponents were ranked 31, 28, and 26th vs. the run. I expect the Panthers to struggle here today.
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10-07-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
Colts +7 4.4* NFL Early Bird Special
I like the Colts off the bye to win one for their coach. The Packers are getting a lot of respect here for last year and this line is not accurate and off by a field goal in my opinion. The Colts have played very well at home arguably beating two playoff teams already in the Bengals and the Vikings who have both played very well this year. The key to the game is protection and playing at home in a dome the Colts have the major advantage as they should be able to terrorize Aaron Rodgers. The Colts have the 11th best sack % in the league and they are 9th at home with an 8.20 % sack. Rodgers offensive line had major problems in his only road game at Seattle so expect similar things to happen here today. Unlike the Seahawks the Colts have a capable offense. For one they have Andrew Luck and he continues to develop and get better. The Colts are already 10th in third down offense to the Packers 11th ranking. The Packers have not played well at home this year and last week we saw their poor pass defense show up that haunted them all last year as Drew Brees threw for 446 yards. The Packers struggle in the red zone as they are 21st in TD % and it could be worse considering they held the Seahawks to no TD's in the red zone and we all know how bad that offense is down in the red zone. The Colts meanwhile have been effectively stopping opponents in the red zone at home holding them to 40% touch downs which is good for 9th in the league in home stats and they faced capable offenses with weapons from the Vikings and Bengals. |
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10-07-12 | Cleveland Browns +9 v. NY Giants | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
Browns +8.5 5.5* NFL POD With some of Eli's big receivers ruled out in Nix and Barden and Cleveland being one of the best at defending TE's in the league (ranked 3rd). I see Eli and the Giants deferring to the running game slowing this game down quite a bit. I'm not so sure they can do it successfully. Despite being able to run on Carolina they have struggled at home running the ball which is clearly not their strength. The Giants really don't have a home field advantage and this is the exact game they seem to always struggle in. Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Since opening Metlife Stadium they are 0-6 ATS against teams where they are home favorites of more than a TD. Recent ones come to mind, Buccaneers this year, Seahawks, Dolphins last year.
I know the Browns are 0-4 but They have an extra couple of days to prepare and they should be able to run the ball on the Giants defense that is 26th allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Cleveland is also 12th in sack % allowed which should allow Brandon Weeden more time than most QB's against the Giants front 4 and that could be dangerous because the Giants secondary is still beat up. We saw Breeden throw for 320 yards against the Ravens defense as he had time, but really most importantly is Trent Richardson who is starting to look like the most complete running back in the game. I'll go with Cleveland's overall defense and their offensive line. The Giants will be just going through the motions as they have the 49ers on deck where Cleveland will go for a win to shock the NFL. |
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10-06-12 | West Virginia v. Texas -6.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 50 m | Show | |
Texas -6.5 3.3* play
Let's slow down with Geno Smith and this ridiculous West Virginia offense. This is West Virginia's first road game in the Big 12 and it comes at the most difficult place to play in Texas. Okay so watching last week's game and West Virginia's offensive line did a great job blocking, but Baylor was just incapable of getting a rush ranked 117th in sack % as was Marshall in their first game ranked 116th. In West Virginia's only game against a team with a defense in Maryland ranked 31st in sack % they struggled and only won 31-21. Well Texas is better and they'll be at home and they actually have an offense that can go toe to toe. Texas is also fresh off a game with Oklahoma State which provided them with a nice tune up. Texas defense is 28th in third down defense allowing 33.3% conversions and 26% at home. While West Virginia is 116th, and while their offense is 1st right now in converting third downs again they haven't faced a team like Texas. Texas offense meanwhile can match them ranked 4th in third down offense. I don't see West Virginia continuing to have that type of success on the road. |
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10-06-12 | Tulsa v. Marshall +4 | 45-38 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
Marshall +4 4.4* play
I really love this play with Marshall hosting Tulsa as Marshall really impressed me scoring 41 points on the road against Purdue who has the best front 4 in the Big Ten. Marshall also nearly beat Ohio, the best team in the MAC at home and led 14-0 early. Rakeem Cato and the offense is clicking and if it wasn't for 3 interceptions and penalties on the road they could have upset Purdue. They out gained both Ohio and Purdue in their losses. Cato has three 400+ yard passing games already and has one of the best duos at WR in Tommy Shuler who had 19 receptions last game a school record and played high school with Cato and Aaron Dobson. On paper Marshal's defense looks terrible and they will likely go back and forth with Tulsa, but one good thing is that they are home where they were able to contain Ohio's offense which was a good sign. It's also not like Tulsa's defense is any better after allowing 42 points in their road game to UAB and allowed their QB to pass for 337 yards and 3 TD while completing 67% of his passes. Looking at the QB's in this match up and Cato has been way way better completing 70% of his passes for nearly a yard better per completion than Cody Green who is completing just 51.2% and has thrown 6 interceptions. Cato's QB rating is also 30 points better than Green's. Cato will face a team that's #1 in TFL and sacks, but he's already faced Purdue and Ohio's defensive lines and Marshall is 39th in sack % and is only getting sacked 2.99% of the time at home. On offense they are converting 53.4% of their third downs while Tulsa is ranked 80th with just 35.7%. Now Marshal's defense on third down looks suspect at 53.23%, but keep in mind they faced two top 10 third down offenses and nobody outside the top 54 while Tulsa faced off against incompetent offenses ranked 73rd, 92nd, 111th, and 64th in third down offense. I give a major edge to a Marshall team that really has turned their program around in recent years and brought in a huge recruiting class last year that is already paying dividends. |
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10-06-12 | Oklahoma -4.5 v. Texas Tech | 41-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 21 m | Show | |
Oklahoma -4.5 3.3* play
Throw out the stats in this game because both teams really haven't faced anyone. Texas Tech's stats are great on both sides of the ball and now they are ranked, but they are under dogs at home? Oklahoma off a bye week is huge and you best bet that they remember Texas Tech ruining their season last year when the Red Raiders upset Oklahoma at home as 29 point under dogs. Huge revenge spot here for Oklahoma and they get the extra week off to work on things. Oklahoma was on a bye week last year going on the road to face a good Florida State team as a road favorite and won 23-13 and I think we see a similar score in this one. Oklahoma is 18-0 in the Big 12 road games coming off a loss which Oklahoma is against Kansas State. This is the first balanced offense Texas Tech has faced as Oklahoma is 30th in passing and 32n in rushing. |
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10-06-12 | Virginia +2 v. Duke | Top | 17-42 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 48 m | Show |
The Bottom Line:
Virginia +2 5.5* NCAAF POD A lot of hype for Duke right now after their quick start, but it's about to end as they just are not going to be able to overcome these injuries that continue to pile up. It's also a great opportunity for Virginia to redeem themselves and turn around their season and it starts with a new QB in Phillip Simms who has looked good in his appearances this year. Virginia continued to have issues with penalties and turnovers and the move to Simms should help alleviate those miscues as he has 5 TD and 0 interceptions while Michael Rocco gave the ball away 7 times with interceptions over the last 3 games alone. Duke is not much of a defense in terms of forcing turnovers and even though they are ranked 45th in total defense they have faced an average offense ranked 94th in total offense. Meanwhile Virginia has faced an average 56th total offense and has already played 4 bowl teams in Penn State, TCU, Georgia Tech and LA Tech. Duke can pass the ball I'll give them that, but Sean Renfree might not even be able to play as he's questionable in this one, but even if he plays I'm confident in Virginia's pass defense ranked 40th in completion percentage defense. They play an offense that is very much one dimensional as Dukes rushing attack is ranked 112th in the nation. On the flip side look for Virginia to be able to run the ball a little bit again. While Duke has been good stopping the run they really haven't played anyone besides Stanford who can run and even Stanford is ranked 77th in ypc this year. I look for Perry Jones to have a big game as Duke has faced rushing offenses ranked 106th, 71st, 77th, and 82nd after allowing 5.1 yards per carry a year ago. The injuries in the secondary will be huge in this game too as Virginia's speed will pay dividends. |
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10-06-12 | Northwestern v. Penn State -2.5 | 28-39 | Win | 100 | 61 h 2 m | Show | |
Penn State -2.5 3.3* Early Bird Play
Northwestern will be playing in just their second road game of the year and haven |
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10-05-12 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -1 | Top | 13-14 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Syracuse -1 5.5** ncaaf pod
Syracuse and Pittsburgh comes off a bye this week, but Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off byes. |
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10-04-12 | USC v. Utah +14.5 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
UTAH +14.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
USC has shown already on defense this year that they can get beat on the ground (allowing 5.5ypc against Stanford) or through the air (Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib 30-46 322 yards 2 TD's), and now they go on the road to Utah who is an angry team finally getting healthy. I think the oddsmakers helped us in this one after Utah got beat badly at Arizona State 37-7, a game in which we were on Utah. Now everyone is loving USC going on the road but Utah has gotten much healthier in the secondary including getting back their S Brian Blechen off suspension. I think this will be a tight game like last year and playing at Utah is never an easy game for anyone. USC has had protection issues as they are ranked 99th in sack % allowed while the Utes can get in the backfield and are 20th in sack % led by NT Star Lotulelei who will be trying to impress some NFL scouts. Look for him to play a big factor here tonight. That will make it tough for USC on third downs once again where they have had major issues just converting 31% on the season ranked 99th. Utah coincidentally is 22nd allowing just 32% conversions. Offensively Utah is coming off a bye in which allowed them to get the offensive scheme in check and I think they'll come out and play a lot better. They get a healthy John White back finally and QB Hays has had some time to scheme up for USC who has been unable to get to the QB ranked 80th in sack % and are even worse on the road with a 2.5 sack %. People forget this is a rebuilt defensive line and the loss of Devon Keonnard via injury early was a devastating blow. I don't think they can win this game by 14 points. Kyle Whittingham is very good as Utah's head coach off byes 6-1 in his career and the Utes are 22-2-1 all time off a bye with their next game being at home. Take the Utes in a big game they need to redeem themselves. |
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10-04-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams +3 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rams +3 -125 buy 1/2 3.5* play
Not worth a POD, but I like the Rams a lot tonight especially being home and forcing Arizona to travel on a short week. I think many are not considering just how good of a coach Jeff Fisher is. The offense continues to get better every week and at home they are playing extremely well converting 48% of their third downs. Arizona's offense on the other hand is dead last in the league in yards per play. Their defense has been very good, but that's been mostly at home and now they go on the road to play a dome team they could have issues with especially since St Louis will try to speed the tempo up or use their power rushing game. I think St Louis could do either and Arizona has not shown they can do both offensively while St. Louis has making them harder to prepare for. I'm not sold on the Cardinals ability to run the ball and we will see what Kevin Kolb has after last week.. I'm expecting a let down situation here today after there come from behind victory. I wouldn't trust Kevin Kolb as Arizona is 25th converting just 30% of their third downs on the season. That stat gets worse on the road because St Louis is 6th in third down defense on the year and have a really good pass rush that should give the Cardinals major problems considering they are allowing an 8.78 sack %. Rams lost by just 3 at home last year and are a much better team that wants to make some noise in the division. Fisher is a very good coach and will have his boys ready. entral Florida -5.5 / FIU +8 3.3* PLAY I leaned towards both these teams on Thursday night, but I just couldn't make it a play and with the teaser I think we get a ton of value getting them on key numbers. Central Florida we get them under a TD and that's a major advantage because East Carolina has yet to prove they can move the ball on offense. I expect Central Florida to dominate at home in a low scoring game especially the way they have played on third down. It's a huge game for the Conference USA race and Central Florida being at home on a short week is a huge advantage. FIU on the other hand has not played well, but I"m expecting them to rebound here tonight. They are a team that held Louisville to 323 yards just a couple weeks ago at home. They were one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt along with Arkansas State who they have some revenge against tonight and I think they get it. One of the major reasons I think they get a win here is the rushing attack of FIU. Bringing QB EJ Hilliard into the mix you will see more running from this team and that's a good thing going up against ARkansas State who is 117th in the country in running the ball. 3rd down defense has been an issue for Arkansas State because they are allowing 5.6 yards per carry on the road right now because teams are getting into 3rd and short. FIU meanwhile has only allowed 39% conversions to ARkansas State 49% and those stats get worse when they are on the road. Offensively Arkansas State has been nothing special on third down and I expect FIU to have the advantage on this key category Thursday night at home along with turnovers. Arkansas STate Ryan Aplin is a big name int he conference but he still threw 16 interceptions and was sacked 27 times last year. Arkansas State is 90th in the nation in turnover margin and playing on the road I think we will see FIU get some pressure on him. |
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10-01-12 | Chicago Bears v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 34-18 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
Cowboys -2.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NFL POD
This game is a match up between two teams that have struggled offensively and really are very similar. Both have been playing well on defense and have had issues protecting their own QB and avoiding mistakes. However, it's going to come down to which offensive line can protect their QB better and playing at home offers a major advantage. When a team is on the road we see the difference constantly and in this game the offensive line is going to play the biggest factor and I think being home will greatly benefit Tony Romo who in my opinion is better at avoiding the pass rush any how. Also, Cutler this year has the worst sack % 10.58% and that's even worse on the road 20.59% of his drop backs while Romo is at 6.09% and Dallas was actually really good at avoiding sacks at home a year ago ranked 5th. Look out for DeMarcus Ware to feast on LT JMarcus Webb of the Bears and Cutler should be running for his life most of the night as he just does not have the pocket presence that Romo has. Chicago would have to run the ball and do it well to have a chance, but I don't see them having that ability on the road. I strongly believe this line is off a bit and in reality should be -4 or 4.5. Dallas struggled at home against Tampa, but they should have lost that game and the fact that they won it despite 3 turnovers and 13 penalties has to tell you something about the overall talent of this team. Chicago meanwhile has benefited largely to being home for two games and is a different team on the road. The Bears have been the #1 team in third down defense this year, but the Cowboys are right behind them only allowing 29.27% conversions and Dallas has had greater success converting them actually converting 10% more 3rd downs than Chicago That should play a key factor in a tight game. Overall I like the additions to the Cowboys secondary and if you haven't seen it in action yet stay tuned for tonight's game because it's a lot better than it was a year ago. |
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09-30-12 | Miami Dolphins +6 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Dolphins +4.5 4.4*
As good as the Cardinals have been on defense they are still getting too much respect. They actually are negative yards in every game and that has to say something. Meanwhile the Dolphins are much better than their record indicates. They are 3rd in the league in run defense allowing 66 yards per game. Arizona has struggled punching the ball in at the goal line with the run and their offensive line has struggled and should have their hands full with the Dolphins front 4 including Cameron Wake who should spend plenty of time in the backfield today. I also don't trust Arizona's starting running back Ryan Williams. He's fumble prone since college and has had issues this year. Look for the turnover battle to play a huge factor in this game. Meanwhile the Dolphins offense has been pretty decent considering they start a rookie QB. Ryan Tannehill is athletic and he's running the same offense he did in college so in a sense he's much further ahead than most rookie QB's. He's also backed by a good rushing team. Both teams like to run the ball more than pass as they are both inside the top 10 in rush %, but the Dolphins are far better at running the ball and stopping the run. Arizona is 30th with just 2.8 ypc, and their defense is 12th allowing 3.9 ypc and should have their hands full with the Dolphins backs today. |
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09-30-12 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Panthers +7.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD
The Panthers really struggled big time in their last game on Thursday night against the Giants, but they get an extra couple of games to prepare for a huge divisional game against the Falcons who are on fire. I actually think this game will be close. Remember last year the Panthers were tied in the 14th quarter at 17 with the Falcons and their are a lot of things that align for the Panthers to give the Falcons a little scare here today. For on the Falcons defense is getting too much respect. For one they are 24th allowing 128.7 ypg on the ground and 31st allowing 5.0 yards per carry and it seems obvious that Carolina curtails their offensive scheme to the weakness of the defense they are facing rather than their strength (which is running the ball). That's why I like Carolina today because they will be doing what they do best. It helps big time that they will be getting their Tackle back in Bell and Johnathan Stewart giving them a third weapon for attacking the Falcons weakness. Carolina has only one game where they have rushed it over 20 times ironically that was their only win against New Orleans. Look for them to get back to that against the Falcons and that should allow them to keep it out of Matt Ryan's hands. Lastly The Falcons are 31st in allowing opponents to convert on third down allowing 51.28 % conversions. Carolina isn't much better at 46%, but once again this is too many points for a divisional game especially when the Falcons still have a lot of question marks as they are also 30th in red zone TD%. When Cam Newton gets down there he should be able to score TD's. At the end of the day I think the Falcons may be getting a little cocky and the Panthers just got humbled which I think is what needed to happen to Newton. I expect them to bounce back especially with the extra preparation. |
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09-29-12 | Wisconsin +11.5 v. Nebraska | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 54 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +11.5 3.3* play
Monte Ball could be out for this game and if he is I may even take Wisconsin ML. Ball just doesn't seem to be the same guy and the offensive line is taking all the hit right now. Ball's back ups James White and Melvin Gordon ran for 177 yards and 3 TD's on 23 carries and Wisconsin made a change at QB in freshmen Joe Stave who was 12-17 for 210 yards. Now going on the road to play Nebraska is no easy task by any means, but Wisconsin is likely to play run first football and they've had great success in this match up doing so. Now I think this line is a little crazy and I"m not sold on Taylor Martinez success of 70% throws 9 TD/ 1 INT for a 180 QB rating. For one he's faced pass defenses ranked 122nd, 29th, and 84th along with an FCS foe. Wisconsin is ranked 36th holding opponents to 57.02% completion percentage. What's going untold is how good Wisconsin's defense has been. Their run defense is even better as they are 1 of 3 teams not to allow a rush of more than 20 yards. They've allowed just 1 rushing TD all year and are ranked 19th allowing 94 ypg and only allow 2.9 ypc. They faced a similar style offense from Utah State and kept that rushing attack in check as well. Once Nebraska is unable to run they will turn to the passing game and Martinez always struggles against teams with good LB and Wisconsin has just that. Arguably the best duo in the country is Mike Taylor and Chris Borland combining for nearly 300 tackles a year ago. They are backed up by a terrific safety duo as well. Wisconsin can really stack the box as Nebraska really does not have major threats on the outside and Martinez really doesn't have the zip on the ball to throw accurately outside the numbers. Martinez stats against Wisconsin last year 11-22 176 yards 3 interceptions as Wisconsin dominated. Of course this game is at Nebraska but their defense is allowing 4.8 ypc and they are 103rd allowing 225.7 yards per game on the ground while allowing 44% conversions ranked 80th while Wisconsin's defense is 16th allowing 29.63%. As always defense wins and so does Wisconsin at least on the spread. |
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09-29-12 | Florida State v. South Florida +17.5 | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 41 h 54 m | Show | |
South Florida +17.5 3.3* play
Don |
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09-29-12 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
Michigan State -2.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
It's a huge match up between the two best teams in the Big Ten and I love Michigan State to defeat the Buckeyes for the second year in a row. For one there are a lot of question marks surrounding Ohio State. For one this is their firsst road game of the year and as good as their defense has looked at times their secondary has been a disaster at times and they haven't faced any capable offenses with total offensive ranks of opponents ranked - 75, 78, 71, and 99th. Michigan State is by no means an elite offense ranked 62nd, but in the end it will be the better defense winning this game. I"m still not even sold on the Buckeyes rush defense which is ranked 35th allowing 121.8 yards per game. Keep in mind this is a team that on the road last year allowed 187.5 yards per game. They have some serious questions up front and have not lived up to the hype and have gotten away because the secondary has come up with 7 interceptions. I think Michigan State QB has already played in two big games against Notre Dame and Boise State that has allowed him to have more sense of confidence as we look towards this big game. IT also doesn't hurt that Michigan State is home. Michigan State is also 9th against the run and has the best trio of linebackers in the country (arguably). Ohio State has faced run defenses ranked 96th, 104th, 120th, and 65th. Michigan State is also 3rd in completion % defense so Braxton Miller is going to have a hard time getting this offense going and at some points he's going to force a few bad plays leading to interceptions. It'll be close throughout but Le'Veon Bell should take this game over. This game reminds me of when Ohio State lost on the road to Nebraska last year where Nebraska was able to control the game with the run and play excellent defense. In that game Ohio State was actually able to run to 5.9 ypc and that's just not going to happen on the road against this Michigan State front 7. |
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09-29-12 | Ball State v. Kent State +3 | 43-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
Kent St +3 -115 2.5* play
Kent State is off a very impressive showing up in Buffalo and have 2 extra days to prepare for this game against Ball State which has Northern Illinois on deck and is coming off a big win against South Florida. However, facing Kent State on the road may prove to be more challenging. Particularly because Kent State is making a QB change. Spencer Keith has the experience and should still get some snaps but JC transfer David fisher looks like the guy who is much more capable of making big plays. Kent State relies on the rushing attack and Fisher is a QB that adds to that offense that should have success considering Ball State is ranked 71st allowing 226 yards on the ground this year as well as 4.5 yards per carry ranked 75th. Look for Kent State to control time of possession in this one via their running game. On the flip side Ball State and QB Keith Wenning has been impressive averaging 31.2 ppg, but QB Wenning only has a 117.9 QB rating. Kent State really looked like the old aggressive defense along with the best defensive player in the conference, Roosevelt Nix, last week as they only allowed 265 yards and had 3 interceptions and a fumble recovery. The only points they allowed came on a hail mary before the half. Ball State has not been able to find a way to get off the field as they are 113th in 3rd down defense after 53% last year and Kent State is ranked 25th allowing just 32%. Kent State has also enjoyed a +3 turnover margin and enjoy the best player on the field in Dri Archer. Look for Archer to have 200+ all purpose yards as he gets the ball in space he's a real weapon coming from all over the field either via the hand off or pass. |
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09-27-12 | Stanford v. Washington +7 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Washington +7 -120 4* play
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09-24-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 12-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Seahawks +3.5 4.4* NFL POD
We all know about the 12th man and the degree of difficulty of playing in Seattle. I wanted to take the Seahawks a week ago hosting the Cowboys and we saw first hand how dominating the Seahawks can be especially on the defense side of the ball where they will are the #1 run defense in terms of yards allowed and have only been allowing 2.6 yards per carry. Aaron Rodgers needs a balanced attack on the road or he will struggle as we have seen at times this year. Seattle has some talented secondary players and a strong front 7 that will create pressure. Right now the Packers can no protect Rodgers as they are 28th in sack % as Rodgers is getting sacked 9.41 % of his drop backs. That's extremely high considering how great he is in the pocket. That stat does not complete the full picture of how bad the offensive line has been. Seattle on the other hand is being under rated here again. They have a very very good run game ranked 6th and should have their way with a Packers defense that's ranked 31st allowing 5.1 ypc and 140 yards per game thus far this year. I expect Seattle to run it and for Rusell Wilson complete an efficient game. Suddenly their 16-20 loss looks a lot better at Arizona after how dominating the Cardinals have looked thus far. Overall they've played two top 5 defenses and now they are about to face a team whose defense is not top 10. Packers have the extra rest here but they were 0-2 ATS last year in their road games with extra rest following a Thursday game the week before. |
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09-23-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Oakland Raiders +4.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
[b]Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
Pittsburgh is not the same old team, yes they are old, but they are not elite any more. Oakland has been a disapointment thus far but I like their chances against a Steeler defense that is banged up. The Jets moved the ball well on this unit in their first 2 drives then they struggled the rest of the game, but I think Oakland being at home will have more success behind the right arm of Carson Palmer who is playing extremely well considering he doesn't have a tight end or elite receivers. However, Oakland at home is going to be a tough team to beat and unlike their first game Palmer will have Moore in there which will open up this offense quite a bit. The Steelers offense is in flux as well. They can't protect Big Ben and they can't run the ball just 2.6 ypc this year. Big Ben has been sacked 8 times and it could be more. The problem is bringing him down and the Raiders actually have a defensive line that's big enough to do it. They have more strength than speed and that will help them in this one. on the other side Palmer was not sacked last week against the Dolphins and that should allow him to be in good situations on third down if he continues that which he should. It will help that the Steelers are 22nd in third down defense. I expect a big game for Oakland iand it's offense to make a nice come back here. |
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09-23-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +9 v. New Orleans Saints | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
[b]CHIEFS +9 3.3* EB PLAY[/b]
Not that the Chiefs have played well but the Saints are last in the league in total defense and have played horribly and there is no reason for them to be getting this kind of respect with a line this high even to the Chiefs. Actually the Chiefs offense has not looked that bad and they are 3rd in the league converting 53% of their third downs which will be a big key in staying on the field against the Saints and keeping Brees off. The Saints defense was 31st last year allowing 5 yards per carry so expect the Chiefs to have more balance today. I expect this game to be decided by a FG or TD. The Chiefs secondary is starting to get healthy along with their pass rush. I'm going with the team with the better defense here and I'm also banking on the Saints to continue with their struggles this is a team that lost to a bad Panthers team just last week. |
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09-22-12 | Nevada v. Hawaii +9 | 69-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 18 m | Show | |
Hawaii +8 3.3* play; Hawaii +255 1* bonus
Hawaii is a tough team to beat at home and Nevada is more aware of that than any other team. Now these teams face off as part of the Mountain West and Nevada tries to avoid an 8th straight loss on the road to Hawaii. I'm not sold on this Hawaii team this is a team that lost at home to South Florida, a team that had to travel across the country. Their secondary has been shredded over the last 5 quarters for 584 yards. Even though Hawaii will feature a more pro style offense under Norm Chow the ability to score points will be there especially with what looks like 3 weeks to prepare. Hawaii had a bye week after week 1 at USC and then faced Lamar at home. There is no doubt in my mind that his staff has spent time preparing for Nevada, a conference opponent and he was able to get in some work with the new look rushing attack in the scrimmage against Lamar. Hawaii was actually solid at USC allowing just 81 yards rushing and held USC to 4-14 on third down. Nevada's high octane rushing attack will have trouble moving the ball against Hawaii a bit who is very aggressive and athletic and able to get into the backfield. Hawaii was among the best in sack % at 7.46 and that should play huge dividends as we saw against USC in their ability to get off the field on third down. Watch out for Hawaii's LB Art Laurel who is a terror at making plays in the backfield. |
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09-22-12 | Utah +7 v. Arizona State | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 48 m | Show |
Utah +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5.5*
Utah gets a huge boost with the return of John White this week and they are 8-0 when he rushes over 100 yards. After rushing for 85 last year he should be on his away against Arizona State as Utah seeks revenge after losing 35-14 at home a year ago to the Sun Devils. Last year was a unique situation because it was the first game QB John Hays was thrown into the fire at QB after Wynn got hurt. This year it is Hays again because of a career ending injury to Wynn and he's much more prepared. Utah led last year 14-13 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter it was Hays 3 interceptions that sparked Arizonas State's victory as Utah was -5 in turnover margin and Brock Osweiler was able to keep a balanced offense. Well Osweiler is off in the NFL playing for the Broncos and Arizona State has a new coach and he's not a very good one in my opinion in Todd Graham who will run an uptempo offense and use two QB's. That's going to be a major issue going into this game because Utah's defense is the real deal led by Star Lotulelei, the defensive line should get push and pressure with just a 4 man blitz. That will create issues for sophomore QB Todd Kelly and I think the turnover advantage will be flipped in Utah's advantage. Make no mistakes about it Utah will make Arizona work for their first downs and points as they are 14th in 3rd down conversion defense while Arizona State is 79th and their offense despite putting up some points has only converted 26% of their opportunities. In ugly games like this it comes down to who can play better special teams and create turnovers and I give that edge to Utah who is led by two senior kickers including punter Tom Hacket who is fresh off his PAC 12 special teams player of the week award. As far as turnovers go, I think they are in the rearview mirror for Hays he completed 67% of his passes last week and has 2 TD's 0 interceptions on the year. Add in that Arizona State is sacked 8.2% of their drop backs and I think we have a recipe for some opportunistic plays from the Utes defense. |
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09-22-12 | Memphis v. Duke -23 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 42 h 50 m | Show | |
Duke -23.5 2.2* bonus
This is a strong lead generated by my formulas and my research is enough for a small play here with Duke's ability to put up points. Duke is 16th in passing this year behind an experienced QB in Sean Renfree who rarely gets sacked. That's convenient for Renfree returning home going against a Memphis defense that has yet to sack a QB. This game could get ugly as Duke should put up 40+ points and probably even 50. Don't look for Duke to sleep on Memphis as this team will be hungry for wins with an ACC schedule ahead of them. The defense has also shown an opportunistic side and that's something we look for in these games with large spreads. |
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09-22-12 | Temple +8.5 v. Penn State | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 59 m | Show | |
Temple +7 3.3* play
Temple has been so close winning this rivalry game the last two years but have come up short. I think this is the year they can get the win. Yes last week was a nice win for Penn State, but now they are about to face a style of defense that won't benefit Matt McGloin. Temple also has an extra week to prepare for what's a huge in state rivalry game for them. They don't forget last year where they blew a 10-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Temples strength is their defense as they have produced a few NFL starters over the last few years, but their secondary is the strength this year with a senior dominated depth chart returning from a group that had more interceptions than passing TD's allowed a year ago. This falls into exactly what Penn State has been doing in passing the ball and I don't think they'll have the time they have had to throw the ball 40-50 times like they have the last few years. Don't forget even after putting up 30+ points last week against a Navy team that can not get any sort of pass rush they are still ranked 98th in scoring. On the flip side Temple's offense has not shown much and has the extra time and preparation to add a few wrinkles. Coyer is a more capable passer than a year ago and I think Penn State's secondary is vulnerable to big plays and that's something you will see Temple try on Saturday. |
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09-22-12 | Missouri +10.5 v. South Carolina | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 20 m | Show | |
Missouri +10.5 3.3* play,
I feel that the oddsmakers are really exaggerating the line here after South Carolina dominated a couple of Conference USA teams in UAB and East Carolina. Missouri meanwhile got a tough win with their star player missing time in QB James Franklin who is probably for Saturday. Missouri will challenge South Carolina's secondary that has 4 starters who combine for just 3 starts. South Carolina has not faced a team that can pass thus far and with injuries and a suspension in their secondary leaves them vulnerable despite their strong pass rush. On the other side South Carolina has injury issues on offense as well with Connor Shaw, but he should start and the Gamecocks will look to pound the rock and that falls into the strength of Missouri who can obviously defend the rush holding Georgia to 3.2 ypc and only allowed 3.8 ypc last year. I expect Missouri which has a more balanced offense right now to have the advantage as long as Franklin is 90% like he has said. Missouri really surprised me in Georgia as I had Georgia as my big play a few weeks ago. They hung with Georgia for 3 quarters before Georgia pulled away. Look for Missouri which has started the season passing more to scale it back a bit this week and run more despite South Carolina's issues in the secondary. South Carolina has one of the best pass rushes and Missouri will want to keep this game close and avoid the big mistakes. South Carolina meanwhile has been slow out of the gate this year and the longer you leave Missouri in the game the more confident they will get and they definitely have the talent to pull an upset here with the way South Carolina's secondary is lacking experience. Bottom line it's who can avoid the mistakes as both defenses are at the top of their game allowing 25% conversions on third downs. I'll trust Missouri's offense over South Carolina's offense in this one as they are more battle tested thus far and that should benefit them in this game. |
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09-22-12 | Kansas +9.5 v. Northern Illinois | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 39 h 19 m | Show | |
Kansas +10 -120 buy 1/2 2.5* play
Charlie Weiss has not been shy about his strategy this year and that is to milk the clock. last year Kansas defeated Northern Illinois at home 45-42 and Northern Illinois clearly is not the same team and neither is Kansas. If anything Kansas seems to have more of an idea while Northern Illinois just was gashed on the ground by Army. Kansas will return their best player in James Simms at RB and he should have field day. This will be a huge game for Kansas as they will continually not be favored the rest of the year. I think they can most certainly take this game with Sims returning and behind the big arm of Dayne Christ who almost led a little come back against TCU before he fumbled at the goal line. The Kansas defense is also #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers with 12 already and I think Jordan Lynch the QB of Northern Illinois will have more troubles than he had last week against Army. Remember Lynch is not left with a lot of help without a go to RB and a rebuilt offensive line that left with the departure of star QB Chandler Harnish. |
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09-22-12 | Army +7 v. Wake Forest | 37-49 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
Army +7 3.3* EB Play
Our lone early game is Army facing off against Wake Forest and once again I'm leaning on Army heavily to give Wake Forest all kinds of issues. This is the same Wake Forest team that had all types of issues with Liberty in week 1. I expect Army to pull an upset here as they are better than they have played and the offense seemed to have clicked last week. Wake Forest's run defense has struggled early allowing 6.2 yards per carry and this is a team that has not seen the triple option in over year as they did not face Georgia Tech a year ago. The big key here is they are likely without their man on the interior in Nikita Whitlock. Whitlock would be the key to stopping the triple option and I think allowing 385 yards to Florida State is just a sign of things to come. On the flip side Army should turn out a better performance on the defense side of the ball. For one Wake Forest is 121st in the nation converting just 18% of their third downs and although they have a solid veteran at QB in Tanner Price he is passing behind a completely rebuilt offensive line with 4 new starters. Look for Army to improve with the addition of DE Jarret Mackey coming back after missing the first few games. Offensively Army will enjoy their 25th rank on 3rd down conversions and that's where this game will be decided because Wake is no better at stopping third downs ranked 73rd than they are at converting. |
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09-21-12 | Baylor v. Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
LA Monroe +7.5 3.3* play
Well now everyone is aware of LA Monroe after they were competitive against two solid SEC teams. I thought the Warhawks would fold in a hangover spot on the road at Auburn after upsetting Arkansas, but they only lost by a FG and should have won with a couple missed field goals. That tells me all I need to know about this team as they are definitely mentally tough and will be a lot for Baylor to handle tonight in their tight 20,000 stadium that will consume a ton of energy and enthusiasm from the fans making it difficult for Baylor at times. Baylor meanwhile has had a cupcake schedule against Sam Houston and SMU, a team that lost 3-48 to Texas A&M and has a completely rebuilt offensive line. Both of these teams threw for over 300 yards against Baylor's defense which still does not look any better than a year ago and that sets things up nicely for Kolton Browning who has 649 yards passing in 2 games 6 TD and 1 INT thus far vs. two SEC defenses. Quite impressive and he should have plenty of success against Baylor since Baylor can't get any sort of pass rush. Baylor had 0 sacks vs. SMU a team breaking in a completely rebuilt offensive line. Baylor leaned on their ability to get the turnovers in that game, but now they play an LA Monroe team that's +3 in that department. Defensively LA Monroe runs a 3-3-5 defensive scheme that could confuse Nick Florence who has yet to prove anything against weak competition. Florence threw 2 interceptions and only completed 58% of his passes against Sam Houston. Look for him to make some mistakes and that will only lead to the crowd going crazy and shifts in momentum. I think the Warhawks have a great opportunity here and a real chance to upset Baylor. Baylor's offense for all its done this year are just 25% on third down conversions. They went 2-8 against SMU and 3-12 vs. Sam Houston. LA Monroe's defense is better than both of those teams and has held Arkansas and Auburn to 37.5 % conversions through the first two games. Baylor's defense meanwhile allowed 60% this year and allowed 51% conversions a year ago. |
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09-20-12 | BYU +7.5 v. Boise State | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
BYU +7 4.4* NCAAF POD
A short week off after a tough loss to Utah can only be a good thing for this veteran team. Playing a team like Boise State on national television will be a quick opportunity to find redemption and this is not the same Boise State team of previous years. |
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09-19-12 | Kent State +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
Kent St +4 4.4* POD
to me the oddsmakers are getting away with what the public will misinterpret each team |
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09-17-12 | Denver Broncos +3 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
Broncos +3.5 -115 (5* NFL POD)
I love the Broncos here and suggest buying a half point if it's affordable otherwise I see the Broncos winning this game themselves. First off it's pretty obvious the way this game should go and it will come down to who can stop the opposing QB. It's going to be like a chess match, but after Manning put up 31 points on a very good Steelers defense I can't help but back him in this game. First of all the loss of Brent Grimes has a huge impact in a game like this for the Falcons whose nickel scheme is completely screwed up. Look for Manning to take advantage on what was a strength for the Falcons before the season. Secondly Denver should be able to get to Matt Ryan. It's not like offensive line is spectacular and the Broncos have one of the best pass rushes with Von Miller and now they are getting pressure from the tackle position in rookie Derek Wolfe who had 1 of the Broncos 5 sacks on Big Ben a week ago. Ryan will take sacks while Manning will not tonight. I also trust a Jack Del Rio led defense over Mike Nolan any day. For one Mike Nolan is 1-7 in his career as a head coach or defensive coordinator vs. Peyton Manning and teams these days are going up against the defenders just as much as the coordinators. Not only on game day but in the week of preparation leading up to it all. Manning is one of the best at preparing and when I ask myself who has the better no huddle offense? and Who is the better team at getting or pressuring the QB the answer is the Broncos for both. That's enough incentive to make this a heavy play on the Broncos. Also don't forget the Falcons have struggled to win the big game and for as well as they have played at home they get too much credit from oddsmakers as they are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Don't fall into the trap here tonight Matt Ryan will be pressured and Manning will stay clean and come up with a flawless effort against a Falcons defense that does not do much for me. |
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09-16-12 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. San Diego Chargers | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Titans +7.5 -120 buy 1/2; Titans +240 1* bonus
I look for the Titans to bounce back after struggling with the Patriots. One thing is that they get a nice receiver to add to their depth this week with the return of Kenny Britt which will allow them to really pass the ball with really 5 options with Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Kendall WRight, Jared Cook, and don't sleep on Chris Johnson out of the backfield. The Raiders were decimated by injuries at receiver and it was clear they didn't have anyone to rely on down field. This is going to present a new challenge for the Chargers defense and I think Vegas reached with this line based on the success of the Chargers defense which to me was not real. I look for the Titans to have a shot at winning this game. |
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09-16-12 | Washington Redskins v. St Louis Rams +3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
[b]Rams +3.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
I love the Rams with a healthy Sam Bradford this is a different team. We seem to be getting tons of value in this spot with all the public loving RG III after his performance and win in New Orleans. Don't forget how much of a mess that New Orleans team was and if you take out the big plays the Redskins were not that great as the Saints even held them in check on third downs. The Rams have one of the better pass defenses because they get to the QB and I think that should result in some more turnovers as they forced Mathew Stafford into a few of them a week ago. Despite the lack of offense in week 1 look for Bradford and co to open it up a little more now that they are back at home.. Bradford did complete 68% of his passes in week 1 and Washington was 17th in 3rd down defense on the road. I think the Rams should win this game. |
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09-16-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +3 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
Panthers +3 3.3* play
I like the Panthers in the early game here against the Saints who are just a mess right now. For one they had 12 penalties and it was not just their defense that was the problem it was the offense that only was 2-11 on third down. Now they had plenty of success vs. the Panthers last year, but on the road this team is different and not as good. They beat Carolina 30-27 in Carolina and now the Panthers are a better team despite what happened in week 1. Look for Greg Olsen to have a huge day as he causes a huge mismatch on the linebackers. |
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09-15-12 | BYU v. Utah +3.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah Utes +3.5 4.4* play
Utah will also have the extra day to prepare as they'll host BYU after defeating them 54-10 a year ago on the road. BYU has major revenge and they do have some advantages after Utah lost their starting QB, but this is nothing new with Jordan Wynn out senior QB Jon Hays will step in again. When he did that last year he won 7 of Utah's last 8 games. Going up against BYU should be an ugly game and they need a signal caller that can manage the offense and feed RB John White who rushed for 176 yards against BYU last year. Utah is getting no credit after losing to Utah STate but as we mentioned above Utah STate is damn good. Utah is still only allowing 15.38 % 3rd down conversions and are led by top 5 draft pick hopeful at DT Star Lotulelei. BYU's star is QB senior Riley Neslon but he's short on experience on the road in this rivalry never playing here and he came in the game last year completing 3-6 and threw an interception. Utah's run defense is there we know, but their pass defense is really under rated as they were #1 in pass completion % in the PAC 12 and were one of the rare teams to hold Matt Barkley to under 2 TD passes. Their secondary has talent, depth and big play abilities that should help decide this game by winning the turnover battle which is something Utah has dominated in this series of late. If that fails Utah is led by one of the best punters and place kicker combos in the nation and will have an edge on special teams where close games are often decided. |
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09-15-12 | Utah State +14 v. Wisconsin | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah State +14 2.2* play; Utah State +415 1* bonus
Utah State comes off arguably one of their best wins ever over a good Utah team and this team continues to gain national respect. Normally I look at a team to have a hang over, but the extra day of prep and the all the issues Wisconsin is having gives me reason to believe they can pull the upset. Utah State is the real deal behind Chuckie Keeton who is effective passing the ball and running the ball and Wisconsin is a little vulnerable against a dual threat QB like Keeton and not nearly as good as the Utah defense. Against Utah he ran for 86 yards and threw for 216. Now this game is on the road, but this is the same Wisconsin team that struggled and lost at Oregon State and nearly lost to Northern Iowa at home to open the year. Utah State is now tested and they are ready for a national win after nearly upsetting Auburn last year this team is even hungrier for a win here. Wisconsin should be able to run the ball right? Well they just fired their offensive line coach which is rare during the season especially after losing their OL coach from a year ago and now a grad assistant takes over. I don't see the rushing offense getting any better for Monte Ball who has struggled. Especially without Danny O'Brien opening up any sort of a balanced attack and now he's without his top WR in Jared Abbrederis. Watch out for Utah State's ability to stop the run as they held the PAC 12's best RB from a year ago to just 3.6 ypc and held Auburn a year ago to just 2.6 ypc. Wisconsin is currently last in the Big Ten in running the ball and they are going to have to be stubborn and try to continue to run the ball because O'Brien is no Wilson barely completing 50% of his passes. |
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09-15-12 | Notre Dame +6 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 43 h 8 m | Show |
Notre Dame +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
9 of the last 12 match ups between these two teams have been decided by a TD or less and I think this game will be no different. First of all the Big Ten's rep is taking major hits as they went 0-3 against the PAC 12 last week and has not really come up with many signature wins. Notre Dame is under rated here despite their lackluster performance against an under rated Purdue team. That was a tough game for Notre Dame after playing in Dublin the week before and so far this team looks better than a year ago as they are avoiding the big mistakes and forcing turnovers. Michigan State on the other hand will have their hands full in my opinion as the Irish have a balanced attack and this will be the first balanced attack Michigan State has faced as the Irish also get a fresh Cierre Wood back. Michigan State can run the ball too and they are getting a lot of credit behind Leveon Bell - but Bell had just 29 yards a year ago on 23 carries and Michigan State was dominated despite having Kirk Cousins and other veteran players. Now they'll start QB Andrew Maxwell against an even better defense. Maxwell struggled against a Boise State group that had 9 new starters. Notre Dame is getting a pass rush and is led by one of the best LB in the country that will shut down this rushing game and put the game in the hands of Andrew Maxwell who threw 3 interceptions at home against Boise State. Notre Dame has 6 takeaways and 7 sacks through the first 2 games and have a rising star in sophomore Stephon Tuitt. Michigan State's defense is supposed to be great with the elite running backs, but Notre Dame scored 31 points on them in back to back years and the DL has registered just 1 sack and 7 tackles for loss. Notre Dame's first team offense is among the best in the country in converting on third down's with 18-26. Golson at QB is a wild card as he's proving he can throw the ball. Maxwell showed he can do it against Central Mich, but the Chippewas do not have a good pass defense. Meanwhile Notre Dame has a pass rush and their secondary is more athletic than in years past and will create turnovers on Saturday. As long as Notre Dame does not have a disaster day turning the ball over I think they'll win this game. |
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09-15-12 | Florida v. Tennessee -3 | 37-20 | Loss | -100 | 41 h 7 m | Show | |
Tennessee -2.5 3.3* play
In this match up it's all about Tyler Bray and WR Justin Hunter making plays. Florida's front has yet to prove it's an elite group as they have lacked the big plays with just 4 sacks and 1 turnover the defense of Florida is good but is it good enough to go on the road in back to back weeks in the SEC and win? I don't think so as true freshmen Manziel from Texas A&M completed 23-30.. Just imagine what Bray at home can do throwing to Justin Hunter who had 8 catches 146 yards and 3 TD's. Tennessee has speed to burn in addition to Hunter and Bray had success against Florida last year throwing for 288 yards and 3 TD's in Florida. Tennessee may lack a running game, but if it can get up early on Florida they should be able to cruise. It also helps Tennesse is able to protect Bray as they are 28th in sack % and were among the best last year too. Florida's offense has allowed 9 sacks and are 110th in passing offense. It's nothing new TN will know what's coming from Florida and they are athletic enough on defense to keep this offense in check. Look out for DT Daniel McCullers to have an impact at 6-7 and 360 he's the key to TN 3-4 scheme. He has not gotten on the field a lot due to the opponents running a lot of spread, but Florida has a more traditional pro offense and Tennessee's rush defense will only benefit with McCullers on the field. This is Derek Dooley's biggest game of his career and I think Florida's secondary will get exposed by the no huddle quick strike offense of Tennessee. Florida's secondary is over rated due to the fact it rarely has faced a good passing QB in the last year, but Bray had success last year and is even better this year. |
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09-15-12 | Eastern Michigan v. Purdue -24 | 16-54 | Win | 100 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
Purdue -23.5 3.3* Early Bird Special
Purdue comes off a tough loss against Notre Dame on the road and lost one of their QB's in Robert Marve, but luckily they are used to running two QB systems that are difficult to plan for and Caleb Terbush will be fine against an inferior opponent in Eastern Mich. Eastern Mich lost 31-3 and 34-6 to Penn State and Michigan and in my opinion Purdue is in between those two teams from last year. Eastern Mich's defense is clearly worse and their offense has gotten off to a poor start and will have all kinds of issues on Saturday. First of all Purdue was able to run the ball at will against quality opponents at home last year and against EAstern Mich allowing 6 ypc against Illinois State and Ball State this year, I believe Purdue will have plenty of success again with Terbush and Akeem Shavers as Eastern Mich also has 3 new starters up front. But what I really like in this match up is the strength vs. strength and Eastern Mich just does not match up. EAstern Michigan was 14th last year in running the ball, but thus far they have struggled and Purdues front 4 is clearly the strength of this team holding Notre Dame's rushing attack in check to 1.6 ypc. Eastern Mich will not be able to run and their passing game was last in the MAC last year. Purdue should have balance as Eastern Mich is 96th in sack % and are allowing 63% completion rate. Purdue already had their hickup struggling in their opener vs. an FCS and committed 5 turnovers and numerous special teams mistakes. They buttoned that up against Notre Dame and will be solid at home against Eatern Mich as they cruise to a 30 point win! |
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09-14-12 | Washington State v. UNLV +8 | Top | 35-27 | Push | 0 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
UNLV +8.5 3.3* PLAY
UNLV got crushed in this game on the road a year ago and now they are home and only under dogs by 8.5 points against a Mike Leach offense?? Looks to good to be true for Wash State backers right? Well I disagree and I'll tell you why - UNLV's defense looks like it has drastically improved thus far holding opponents to 20% conversions on third down. They held Minnesota to 13 points in regulation and it's not like Washington State is putting up big numbers yet despite having the talents of WR Marquess Wilson. The QB situation gets worse with Jeff Tuel likely not playing. They have a capable back up but there is a reason why Leach did not start him to begin with. It's evident Leach is not very happy about the depth at QB. When asked how his QB did at half time in the opener against BYU he replied "average" on national television. His no BS is not usually not a morale boost for a team that should have its work cut out for them in Vegas tonight. UNLV's offense on the other side will look to play ball control and they should be able to do a good job of it as Washington State is allowing nearly 60% conversions on third down and they haven't played anyone special. UNLV will run the ball with junior Tim Cornett who has 100+ yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games including both games this year. Washington STate is allowing 4.6 ypc and they struggle to get to the QB with a 2.56% sack percentage last year. UNLV should stay in this game with special teams, ground and pound, and good defense on third down or bend but not break. Washington State is only averaging 2.2 ypc on the ground and did not score a point in the 2nd half a week ago. A short week won't help as they prepare for a trip to Vegas. UNLV has the advantage on special teams and thus far in the TO margin department as Washington STate is already -4 on the year and they allowed 4 TD's last year on kick offs so expect UNLV to have an advantage there. UNLV is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 Friday's and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a dog 3.5-10 points. |
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09-13-12 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -4.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
Packers -4 buy 1/2 -120 5** NFL POD
There is a huge misconception here that the Bears offense is going to be elite now just because of Brandon Marshall. Lets slow down they played the Colts at home last week and now they go on the road into a challenging environment against one of the best teams coming off a loss and hungry for a win. The Bears offense on the road last year only eclipsed 21 points twice in 8 road games last year. They will have to do that against the Packers to cover this spread and I don't see dramatic improvement for them to do it despite putting up 41 points at home.. Don't forget Cutlers first 5 drop backs against the Colts resulted in 3 sacks, interception, and an incomplete pass. Of course then things got easy, but against the Packers on the road he's going to have an even tougher time. The Packers actually have better offensive numbers and they played a much better defense in the 49ers. Packers were able to get by last year and go 15-1 with the worst defense in the league, but dont' forget their first 6 picks were on defense. This group will improve throughout the season and they didn't play terribly against the 49ers holding them to 22% conversions on third down. I mention that because the Bears only converted 33% against the Colts and were ranked 27th on third down last year. I don't see where this team got so much better that that's going to change dramatically. On the flip side the Packers were 3rd last year 48.5% on third down and Aaron Rodgers was effective again vs. the leagues best defense converting 46% on third down. I think playing a contending team in the Bears allowed the Packers to be better prepared this week. As that game went on Rodgers became more and more comfortable. Look for Jermichael Finley to have a huge game as he caught 4 of Rodgers 8 TD passes against the Bears a year ago. I'm not fooled by last week so be confident laying the points tonight. |
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09-09-12 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Tampa Bucs +3 -120 5.5* POD
buy the point... But I do not think you'll need it. All this hype on Cam Newton and now he's a sophomore and he's been around the league once. Ask Josh Freeman how his sophomore campaign went? Either way everyone is in love with this kid for good reason, but he's getting too much credit because the Panthers have far more issues than the Bucs who look to rebound after losing 10 games in a row to close out the year last year. Their run defense will be improved with rookie LB Lavonte David and strong safety Mark Baron, but don't underestimate Greg Schiano's pedigree for the defense side of the ball as I believe they will improve big time against the run and this is the game they'll showcase that today. It's not like Carolina's defense is any better as they were 26th in RZ TD%, and 26th in 3rd down defense. While the Bucs weren't much better they added some talent on this side of the ball and the offense will be better making the defense better. On offense the Bucs made big changes bringing in G Carl Nicks to help pass protect they drafted Doug Martin who can be a star in this league and adds another dimension to the offense that Lagarette Blount just didn't. Don't forget Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark giving Josh Freeman the tools and no excuses but to bounce back. Freeman had 25 TD and 6 interceptions in his first year and it was obvious last year he thought the NFL was just that easy, but a 16/22interception campaign motivated him this off season and I think we will see more of the old Josh Freeman who is just as good if not better than Cam Newton. Newton may not have a sophomore slump like he did last year but the NFL is about to get more difficult for him. I don't see him having as much as success and I see the Bucs being better today. |
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09-09-12 | St Louis Rams +9.5 v. Detroit Lions | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Rams +9 4.4* Play
I love the Rams int his spot they are under rated and if Sam Bradford can be healthy they have a shot to compete in the AFC West. Bradford looked good this preseason throwing for 5 TD and 0 Interceptions and should be able to move the ball against Detroit who was 28th in pass defense and 24th in run defense a year ago. They allowed 5 ypc so look for OC Brian Schottenheimer to mix a bunch of runs in today. Brian Schottenheimer is and under rated under valued coach from the Jets and I think the offense is going to drastically improve in St. Louis. They have a great coaching staff with Jeff Fisher and they match up really well with Detroit here. The Lions actually are kind of one dimensional with injuries at RB, but St. Louis is solid at pass defense because they can get to the QB. They were 7th in sack%, 7th in passing yard defense and in the top 5 of least passed on. I think the Rams stay in this one into the 4th quarter forcing the Lions to win it late. |
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09-09-12 | Atlanta Falcons -1 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 40-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Falcons -1 3.3* bonus
I love the Falcons and I don't think the Chiefs are going to be able to run the ball quite like they need to in order to pull off the upset. There are still question marks with Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis and I have little to no confidence in Matt Cassel. ON the flip side the Chiefs defense is really good, but they are without some of their best players including Tamba Hali, and their secondardy is beat up big time which won't be a good thing in this game because... Matt Ryan has 4 options to throw to along with a healthy running game. Look for Julio Jones to have a crazy year and you'll see more of Harry Douglas and Jacquizz Rodgers when teams have the talent to lock down Roddy White or Julio Jones. In this game the Chiefs don't have Brandon Carr any more now with the Cowboys and they have all sorts of injuries going on. Linebacker Derrick Johnson is bothered by a bad ankle, cornerback Brandon Flowers has a bum heel, safety Kendrick Lewis is dealing with a shoulder injury and backup cornerback Jalil Brown has been trying to recover from a groin strain. Bottom line the Falcons want to pass more well here is their chance. Chiefs are without their pass rusher and their secondary is banged up. |
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09-08-12 | Oklahoma State v. Arizona +11 | 38-59 | Win | 100 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
Arizona +11 3.3* LNF Arizona +350 0.5* play
I love Arizona in this spot along with their new spread offense that put up 600+ yards in its debut vs. Toledo. Oklahoma State won 84-0 to Savannah State in a game that never should have been scheduled. However, Oklahoma State could not find an opponent this summer once the Big 12 broke up a bit and they had to settle on a team that had no business playing that game. The result is an inflated line this week and a misconception on Oklahoma State's team. Sure behind Gundy they will have a group that can score points, but how accurate is this line considering just a year ago they were only -14 at home vs. Arizona. Now on the road after losing QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon they are still double digit favorites? I just do not see it. Arizona can win this game outright if they clean up the turnovers and that may be a huge if, but they should still be in good position to cover the spread and keep this close. For one Oklahoma State is traveling west playing a late game with a true freshmen QB in Wes Lunt who is going to be in a completely different atmosphere than last week in the Zoo. Oklahoma State also returns just one starter along their offensive line. Although they had depth and return some veterans it's an unknown on whether or not John Randle can be explosive again. On Arizona's side they have more experience at the QB position in 5th year senior Matt Scott who can also run unlike Nick Foles as he had 74 yards rushing last week opening up the offense for others including RB Ka'Deem Carey who could be one of the best young RB's in all of the PAC 12. Arizona also has some talent at WR in Dan Buckner and others who are experienced along with senior C Kyle Quinn who remembers the previous beat downs they have gotten from the Cowboys in recent years. This year is as good as any to turn the tables and get a win especially with Oklahoma State playing in a non serious way while Arizona has already showed some heart in winning a close game over Toledo. Oklahoma State is not preparing for the same team as a year ago as Arizona has a new offense behind Rich Rodriguez as well as a new 3-3-5 defensive scheme that I wonder if true freshmen Wes Lunt has ever seen? Should be a solid game and I'll take the home dog with double digits to cover this one. |
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09-08-12 | Georgia -2 v. Missouri | Top | 41-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 22 m | Show |
Georgia -2 4.4* NCAAF POD
Welcome to the SEC Missouri and DT Sheldon Richardson thank you for running your mouth. This is not old man football this is the best brand of football responsible for the last 6 national championships type of football. With all of that said Missouri is about to step up to the big leagues and I have many doubts they are capable against one of the favorites in the SEC in Georgia. For one Missouri will have issues considering they'll start 4 new offensive linemen on the interior and while two tackles return they have a tendency to get beat on inside moves and it just so happens that Georgia is loaded along their front 7, 3-4 defensive scheme. That's bad news for Missouri's star offensive player James Franklin who is more of a runner than he is a passer. Franklin loves to throw off his back foot and is prone to making mistakes and he is the majority of their offense especially after the loss of Egnew, Kemp and Josey as well as 4 offensive linemen. The offense was 11th on 3rd down conversions in the Big 12 last year and I don't see it improving despite the size on the outside that this team has especially in the SEC. A year ago they were converting less than 40% of their third down attempts. That's partially due to them running the ball or passing to the RB 67% of the time on 1st down. That normally created a 2nd and 7 or longer where they ran again 63% of the time. That's not going to get them anywhere against Georgia's front 7. To me this game will quickly turn into a defensive game and that will quite the crowd quickly and give Georgia a major advantage. Georgia returns their star QB in Aaron Murray after he threw 35 TD's a year ago and did not miss a beat without WR A.J. Green. Although Missouri has the talent to beat SEC teams I just don't think this will be their day as Georgia will have the field position in their favor all day. Led by receiver Tavarres King I believe the group of speedy receivers will be able to take advantage of a suspect secondary. |
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09-08-12 | Army +6.5 v. San Diego State | 7-42 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 6 m | Show | |
Army +7 -120 3* play
San Diego State put up just 12 points at Washington a week ago and that's because they are without Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman on offense as they were the key members at QB/RB that led San Diego State to a healthy offense over the last few years. San Diego State will have to face an Army team that seeks revenge from their 23-20 loss after compiling a 5.2 ypc average and they have everyone back on offense including 4 year starter in QB Trent Steelman. Army is small and quick and they will match up well against San Diego State and their 3-3-5 defensive scheme because they too are irregularly small up front on both sides of the ball. San Diego State is even starting a converted TE in Quigley at LT and we are already seeing the results of a line that's due to struggle this year after bieng sacked 4 times last week. QB transfer Ryan Katz struggled finishing 10-19 with an interception and 4 sacks. Army should be able to hold up and get some stops and although San Diego State is familiar with the triple option they have been unable to really stop it. It's always been their offense that has carried them and outscored the triple option and I don't think they will do it against an Army team with extra preparation and a veteran led team hungry to get to a bowl game. |
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09-08-12 | Penn State +10 v. Virginia | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show | |
Penn State +10 2.2* EB play
Getting away from Pennsylvania can only be a good thing for Penn State this week. It |
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09-07-12 | Utah v. Utah State +7 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
Utah St +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* NCAAF POD
Utah vs. Utah State , both teams will be going to a bowl game this year if you ask me, but this game means everything to Utah State as the Aggies would love to take down their in state rival and bigger brother Utah. This is a team that nearly shocked Auburn on the road early last year losing 42-38 so they have plenty of ability to take down Utah tonight as Gary Anderson is one of the better unknown head coaches around. Anderson's defense should pick up where they left off as #1 in the WAC last year despite losing some players they are tackling machines led by a strong secondary that will keep this game close. IT also helps that Anderson was the DC at Utah for many years and is very familiar with Utah. Utah State offensively will be solid behind returner at QB Chuckie Keeton and they are led by an offensive line that was solid last year and returns their star C in Tyler Larsen who should be able to neutralize Utah's star defensive line men in Lotolelei. Utah State had an efficient passing game with 64% completions and 23 TD while throwing just 6 interceptions and the offensive linemen know how to block and zone block well. That will make things easier for the runners in Joe Hill and Kerwyn Williams. Utah on the other hand in their opener did struggle a little and missed several big plays that once again won't be there tonight. On one possession it took them 21 plays to score on an FCS school. This is a team that was 106th in 3rd down conversions 33.95% last year while Utah State was 9th at 48.86% and Utah State's defense was even better holding opponents to 35% conversions on third down. I think they can have the same type of success especially since Utah has to replace two all conference tackles. Utah has plenty of talent at OL and size, but this is the perfect time for the Aggies to pull an upset. |
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09-06-12 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Pittsburgh +5 3.3* play
Much of the public is hammering away at Cincinnati especially considering Pittsburgh lost to an FCS foe last week at Youngstown State. For one Youngstown caught a break as the Panthers had no depth on defense especially along the defensive line as Paul Chryst sent a message by suspending 6 players a week ago. This is a completely different Pittsburgh team than a year ago and in a good way as they get back to their roots of running and setting up the pass. Cinci has their own issues as they lost so many stars on offense and defense and have 60 1st and 2nd year players on the roster. The quick turn around for Pitt is a good thing in this case after losing to an FCS foe and having revenge for last years meeting with Cinci. Pitt also got a warm up against a spread offense that should only benefit them tonight. Paul Chryst was the OC for Wisconsin the last 6 years so he was a perfect fit for a Pitt team that perennially would run the ball and they will be running behind a more balanced offense and an offensive line that |
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09-02-12 | SMU +7.5 v. Baylor | 24-59 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
SMU +7.5 3.3* PLAY
There are a lot of questions regarding SMU's offense with 5 new starters on the offensive line, and Gilbert coming over to play QB for June Jones from Texas. I actually think this will be a great change of scenery for the 5-star recruit in Gilbert and the offensive line won't be terrible considering they have several veterans that have started along the line before. Gilbert is perfect for the run and shoot and I think this offense can really take off especially with dynamic WR Darius Johnson and RB Zach Line. If there was a team a new offense would want to play it's the Baylor defense which should have many of the same issues they had a year ago. They couldn't stop the run or the pass and it started up front where they had just 19 sacks and allowed 5.2 ypc. Line should have a huge game going against a 4-2-5 defense that will have to play honest in Jones style of play calling. Baylor was 118th in pass defense and gets all of those starters back so I don't think it's a good thing. On the other side of the ball.... Baylor will be just fine with QB Nick Florence taking over but it may take a little bit as the offense lost 5 starters to the NFL. The offensive line will be juggled and could have some issues against SMU's front 7 which is tough against the run and has good linebacker speed. Baylor will want to run a lot, but I think SMU should be able to hold up and at least force this team to kick field goals. Pass defense is the main issue for SMU, but again this is a perfect warm up for them with Florence an unknown at QB. All in all the pass defense still stiffened in the red zone as they only allowed 15 passing touchdowns. Watch out for defensive end Margus Hunt from SMU. He could be a huge star on the rise and can get to the QB and I think he could be the best defensive player on the field on Sunday night. |
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09-01-12 | Clemson v. Auburn +3 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
Auburn +3 -105 5* NCAAF POD
This game will be on a neutral field in Atlanta and the under rated Auburn team in my opinion will win it. All this Tigers team needs to do for motivation is check out the youtube clip of Dabo Swinney fired up after they beat Auburn at home 38-24 and that was after they trailed 21-7. Look for Auburn to have a lot of revenge on their mind in a game that won't be anything like last year and I'll tell you why. Before I get into Auburn note that they were not terrible last year going 8-5 losing 4 on the road to very good teams Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and then they lost one home game against Alabama the National Champion. Meanwhile Clemson ended their 2011 campaign losing 3 of 4 including a blowout in their bowl game. Last year it was all about Tajh Boyd as he was 30-42 for 386 yards 4TD 0 INT as he was 14-18 on third down conversions. It's hard to think Clemson will be able to duplicate that considering their offensive line is experience a complete overhaul with 3 newbies as well they have lost 3 starters on the defensive line. To make matters worse Sammy Watkins who had 10 rec 155 yards in that game is suspended. There is just no way Boyd can repeat the success he had last year with 3 new starters on the offensive line and Auburn has a pair of ends that can be dominating in Corey Lemonier and Dee Ford to go along with 7 other starters that return on the defense. Offensively Auburn will start Kiehl Frazier, but they should be able to run in this game considering how vulnerable Clemson is on the defensive line. They ran for 237 yards last year on 6.2 ypc look for that to happen again, but with new offensive coordinator Scott Loeffer there will clearly be more balance and that will benefit maybe one of the best TE in the nation in PHillip Lutzenkirchen. I think this line is derived off the public's perception of Auburn and Clemson. Last year Clemson lost on the road at South Carolina 13-34 while Auburn actually won on the road. That one game was a bad game and I'm sure Auburn has been motivated all summer long to take revenge on Clemson who is now 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on neutral fields while Auburn is 5-1 ATS. |
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09-01-12 | Tulsa -1.5 v. Iowa State | 23-38 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
Tulsa -1.5 2.2* PLAY
This is a screwy line on paper especially with Iowa State beating Oklahoma State last year right? Well I think the strengths and weaknesses match up rather nicely in this spot and even know Tulsa lost their QB they should be in good shape to be another good team. Iowa State on the other hand has no balance on offense and it's no secret they want to run the ball. That plays into the hands of Tulsa's defense that returns 7 starters. They return both seniors on the interior who may not be household names, but are stout and very physical. It's the same group that ranked 16th in allowing just 3.3 ypc. The QB position is in flux and Steele Jantz will get the start for the Cyclones, but I'm not trusting them considering they were 107th in completion % and 105th in QB rating a year ago. With Bufford and Jackson on the inside Tulsa should be able to keep Iowa State's run first approach in check. Tulsa on the other hand starts Cody Green at QB, the Nebraska transfer has the experience to pick up where GJ Kinne left off. He's backed by a trio of RB's including Watts/Douglas who combined for 7.8 ypc and 1764 yards. While Iowa State has 2 of the best linebacker duo's int he country they also have just 1 starter along the defensive line returning. They were also last in the Big 12 with just 17 sacks on the year so Green should have time to create a balanced offense while the defense will be opportunistic again in 2012 leading to a win! |
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09-01-12 | Northwestern v. Syracuse | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
Syracuse +1 3.3* NCAAF EB play
This is simply a bad match up for Northwestern a team that lacks any sort of defense and things can be even worse for them with a lack of experience this year and a remade defensive line. Northwestern does have Kain Colter who is a beast, but seems to lack a throwing ability. That's too bad because that's where Syracuse is weak. Syracuse's strength will be against the run and that's where their advantage comes in because Northwestern struggled big time to protect the QB last year and will be found shaking it up quite a bit in this game or for the season along OL. That's never a good thing against a team like Syracuse which will bring the heat with lots of blitzing from their talented linebackers that have the lateral explosion of safeties and can cover ground quickly. That's bad news for Colter who plans to be a runner for most of this game. Unfortunately Northwestern lacks a balance and toughness on offense to take advantage of Syracuse's size. Don't sleep on Syracuses offense although they may have lost running backs that rushed over 1,000 yards in back to back years they have a north and south runner in Jerome Smith and an actual QB that could pass in senior Ryan Nassib. The knock on Nassib is he takes too many sacks - 29 last year, but we spoke about Northwestern inability to get in the backfield. That will allow Syracuse to have balance on offense and that will make them very hard to beat at home. IF you remember this team handily defeated West Virginia at home. If you are looking for an x-factor tune into Syracuses's Ashton Broyld, the 6-4 athlete has freakish athleticism and will be found throwing, running and catching the ball on Saturday. |
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08-31-12 | Tennessee v. NC State +3 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
NC STATE +3 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD
16 starters return from the Wolfback team that won 6 of their final 8 games including 3 in a row against Louisville, Clemson, and Maryland to close the year out. This is the year Tom O'Brien has been building for and there is real potential to get to 10 starters. They have 4 starters returning on an offensive line and a NFL prospect in 6-6 QB Mike Glennon who completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,054 yards, 31 TD's and 12 interceptions last year. He'll face off against Tennessee team that is also returning 4 starters and features a 6-6 QB in Tyler Bray, but Glennon has proved himself more and my confidence is with him and the offense that surrounds him as they have more dpeth at running back with James Washington and Mustafa Greene now returning from an injury. More importantly TN brings in a new coaching staff on defense that is making some changes that could hurt them early in the season. On the other side of the ball TN breaks in a new starter at the most important position LT in a sophomore who will make his first start. IT definitely hurts them that they also lost Da'Rick Rogers at WR due to a suspension and now Justin Hunter who is returning from an ACL injury goes up against an All-American CB David Amerson who had 13 interceptions himself last year. NC State may be more vulnerable up front, but TN has yet to proven they can run the ball on anyone averaging just 90 yards a game last year. It's likely Bray and the offense will look to pass, but awaiting them will be Amerson and the rest of the ball hawking secondary that surrounds him which are 3 seniors! Tennesse is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC while NC State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Tennessee should be improved but this is just a challenging game on a neutral field in the season opener that will make them look bad. |
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08-30-12 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt +7 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
Vanderbilt +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
Vanderbilt lost 21-3 on the road last year against South Carolina, but a lot has changed since. So that you too can take Vandy seriously I'll give you some highlights from last year - they nearly beat Georgia and Arkansas at home last year losing by a combined 8 points. They were ranked 18th in yards allowed and they return 8 starters on offense with plenty of depth behind them and 7 starters on defense with an experienced secondary. IN that game they lost 21-3 last year they were on the road, Jordan Rodgers was not yet the starter and the offensive line was not healthy. For instance their best OL Wesley Johnson is back at his best position LT because of the health and depth of the line. Speaking of Vanderbilts offense. They are a run first unit with Rodgers being called a dual threat QB as he had 420 yards rushing last year but the real talent is senior Zac Stacy who had 1,193 yards last year and 5.9 ypc and he's backed up by SEC freshmen of the year Warren Newman. Now South Carolina has a great defensive line when it comes to rushing the QB as they have two 1st round NFL picks in Clowney and Taylor at the end position but they were 45th vs. the run a year ago. Their 2nd rank pass defense will be vulnerable too with 3 starters gone in the secondary and they are also without their best corner Akeem Auguste who is out with a leg. This should do one of two things. Calm the agressiveness that DC Lorenzo Ward likes to come with or lead to big plays against an inexperienced secondary. If you don't believe it's possible, Vanderbilt was actually #1 in the SEC in plays over 20 yards a year ago. So enough about Vandy's offense what about Marcus Lattimore shouldn't he be able to run all over a Vanderbilt team? He had just 77 yards last year in the game and I'm still not sold on how much he trusts his leg. Either way Vanderbilt can sell out against the run because they have an experienced secondary. I also do not think they'll have to worry about the passing game of South Carolina and this is a plus because it will also slow the game down. Connor Shaw has talent, but he also has a very young inexperienced offensive line that replaces 3 starters and he also lost Alshon Jeffrey to throw to. The receivers have plenty of speed but it's going to take a bit to get that chemistry back. Not only will Vanderbilt be sold out and pumped for the first game but they hold a considerable advantage on special teams. They are one of the best in the nation in defending kickoffs and punts and I feel they'll dominate field position making it very difficult for a South Carolina team that was ranked 95th in passing last year and will be looking to do a lot of damage on the ground. It's hard to grind out drives in those situations. |
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02-05-12 | NY Giants v. New England Patriots -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 141 h 60 m | Show |
Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 55 (3.3* play)
Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots. Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf. It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots. One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day. 7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over. Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle. |
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01-22-12 | NY Giants +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 141 h 56 m | Show |
Giants +3 -120 (6*NFL POD); Giants +128 (2.5* bonus)
Love the Giants in this spot especially the fact that they have revenge. They have just been a completely different team since they beat the Jets and their defensive line is as healthy as it's been all season. The way their defense is playing right now it's just as good as the 49ers considering what they did on the road last week against Aaron Rodgers. A lot of it had to do with turnovers and drop passes but the Giants did everything they had to in order to win easily and that is really what they did. Meanwhile the 49ers who I also had as a POD surprised a lot of people and won with Alex Smith driving the field. Don't expect that to happen again this week I see the 49ers going back to their old ways of run first trying to beat the Giants at their alleged weakness but that run defense was stout down the stretch. Manning in the first match up was -1 in the TO margin as he threw 2 interceptions.. Once again I think he redeems himself he's having that kind of year. Manning and the Giants really had that game won last time in San Fran they dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes held the 49ers to 305 yards as they were +90. They could not get the ball in the end zone just 1 for 4 in the red zone. But right now this team is just a different team they are clicking on both ends at the right time. They are converting 50% of their third downs over their last 3 games and were 7-14 in the first match up while the 49ers were 3-11 in the first match up and are just 28.89% over their last 3 games and are 31st on the season in 3rd down offense. What's surprising is their defense is not as good at home giving up 39% red zone conversions to 30% ont he road and the Giants defense is allowing just 35.83% conversions on the road. This is a team that just wins on the road under Tom Coughlin. We know all about the 49ers struggles in the red zone and they are under 40% TD rate in the red zone now they've done better of late, but now once again against the Giants I think they'll be conservative. The way they win is run and don't turn the ball over they were #1 in the league in TO margin and were +4 vs. the Saints. Giants were +3 vs. the Packers. So it'll be interesting to see who wins the TO battle. The 49ers will have to be +2 or better to win this game in my opinion and the Giants are 5th in the league in TO margin so I don't see it happening. Giants are now 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games and it'll continue with another trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday night. |
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01-22-12 | Baltimore Ravens +9 v. New England Patriots | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Ravens +7.5 -120 (4.5* play) Ravens +270 1* play Patriots have had the easiest road to the championship game having to play the Broncos who just were not the same team on the road this year. Now they play a Ravens team that is very solid on defense and just had to play arguably the best defense in the league in the Houston Texans a week ago. Now they play the Patriots who despite dominating Tim Tebow play a more capable offense and more balanced offense. I think Joe Flaco shines today and proves his critics wrong against Tom Brady and the Patriots. New England has not beaten the Ravens by this number since 2004, and their games against tough defenses this year have not resulted in big wins, but close wins or losses. I think this game will be within the 7 points and I'm buying the half point to avoid a push on Championship Sunday. Enjoy!
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01-15-12 | NY Giants +8 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 20 m | Show |
Giants +8
I said last week this team was nothing like the 2007 team that won the Super Bowl, but now I |
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01-14-12 | Denver Broncos +14 v. New England Patriots | 10-45 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Broncos +14 -115 (4* play); Broncos +575 1* play
These two met in Denver and it was a close game in the first half, but turnovers, and penalties were the difference. The Broncos are a better team now in my opinion and their pass rush has to show up on the road today. The Patriots are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games and the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in New England. Patriots are also 3-14 ATS in their last 17 as a home favorite 10.5+. The one thing you can take away from this is the Patriots simply can't play well enough on defense to cover these type of spreads unless they get turnovers which is what they got in the first match up as the Broncos lost 3 fumbles. However, that was just kind of out of the ordinary and I think the Broncos come back and play possession football keeping Brady off the field and they clearly can do it despite having just 27 minutes on offense in the last match up they'll have to do a better job and in their last 3 games they have held a 61% advantage in time of possession. Here is how that's happening they are passing more on first down. They are #1 in rushes on first down, but in their last game vs. Pitt they passed 67% of the time on 1st down. This avoided the 2nd and longs and they were not as predictable. Finally they let Tebow go a little. Now they won't have 9 in the box today they'll have corners in bump and run and safety help over the top when they play the Patriots. Expect this to go back to more running afterall they ran for 252 yards vs. the Patriots on 31 carries. Patriots do not have the ability to get to QB's especially since losing Andre Carter. That should be huge especially if Tebow gets the time against this secondary. The biggest key is putting the ball in the end zone. If they can be effective in the red zone and not turn the ball over they not only easily cover this spread they win the game. There is just something special about this Broncos team and I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots went out in their first game yet again because the Broncos have all the ingredients for an upset and I think they like playing the under dog role. |
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01-14-12 | New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +4 | Top | 32-36 | Win | 100 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
49ers +4 (5.5* NFL POD) 49ers +175 (2* play) The 49ers are about to be tested, but there is a lot about their play at home that I like other than the fact they allow just 10.9 points per game. They are probably the leagues best all around defense, but they'll have their hands full with the Saints who broke an NFL record in 3rd down conversions at 57.08% on the season and over their last 3 have converted 70% of their 3rd down attempts. Guess what all 3 of those games were at home and now they are going on the road where they scored roughly 2 TD's less. The Saints have also played 12 of their 17 games in a dome this year. When they were not in a dome they averaged 25.8 ppg a significant decrease to their dome and carpet stats. The 49ers are very similar but a lot better than some of the teams the Saints have struggled with on the road including The Titans and Jaguars which I will get to in a second. The 49ers are just so much better than those two teams they have extra time to prepare and that's something that will only benefit this team. This season they had two games one with 10 days and another with 14 days. They won by a combined score of 46-10. The other time they had 8 days as they played a Monday after a Sunday and came up with a 20-3 domination of the Steelers. The 49ers are also the #4 red zone defense allowing just 41.18% TD's, and are #1 in allowed attempts with 2.1. The only opponents in the top 10 in % were the Falcons and Titans who allowed 22 and 26 points when the Saints visited them. Again 49ers are better in this area. San Fran is also #1 in TO margin while New Orleans is 19th. I think it's going to be the 49ers game to lose and they won't make the costly turnover to do so meanwhile the Saints have faced very bad defenses on the road from a pass defense perspective. The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in yardage but that's because nobody can run on them as they are #1 rush defense in yards allowed and yards per carry. The Saints rely on their rushing offense much more than many people realize and it'll be a huge key on Saturday. The 49ers are actually 4th in QB rating allowed. The Saints have faced just two other teams on the road in the top 15 and those were the Jaguars and Titans at 14th and 15th who they managed to score just 23 and 22 points against. But neither of those team's had the pass rush that the 49ers have. Just take a look at the pass rushing teams that the Saints have faced out of domes this year. They're ranked 31st, 32nd, 29th, 25th, and 26th. Again they'll have their hands full and I like the value I'm getting with the general public backing the red hot Saints who a year ago had to go out west and got shut down by the Seahawks. This was once a team that allowed 31 points and went 8-17 on third down against the Rams in a road loss. The Rams were arguably the worst team in the league.
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01-08-12 | Arkansas State v. Northern Illinois +1.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
NILL +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
Love Northern Illinois here first of all let's not get sucked into the rankings on Arkansas defense where they are top 20 in total defense rushing defense and scoring defense. First of all they haven't faced any offenses that are as balanced and as good as Northern Illinois with maybe the exception of Virginia Tech. On average they've faced a 74th ranked total offense while Northern Illinois is 9th. Even worse they have faced an average 82nd rushing offense from ypc aspect and Northern Illinois is ranked 4th in the nation and are averaging 5.75 ypc and it all starts with their veteran offensive line led by 4 seniors and 1 junior. Arkansas State does have 32 sacks, but Northern Illinois has allowed just 9 sacks. Chandler Harnish really has been the difference with his decision making. I like Ryan Aplin too on the other side, but he's small and tends to give the ball away with 13 INT's on the year while Harnish 62.9%, 26 TD's and just 5 interceptions and a 156 QB rating which is the highest of any opponent that Arkansas has faced. The average opponent was ranked 81st while Harnish is 16th in the nation so you know he can pass the ball too. Arkansas State will also be playing with an interim coach as their head man took the Ole Miss job. that should offset the fact that this game is closer to their campus than Northern Illinois. Also Northern Illinois gave the ball up less this year was penalized less and was better offensively on 3rd down 47.5% to 44.2% and in the red zone they got their more and scored more. They had 64 att in the RZ and scored 64% of the time and 73% on the road meanwhile Arkansas State got their 61 times and scored TD's 57.38% of the time. Getting off the field is pretty even Northern Illinois 37.5% and Northern Illinois 39.5% but they only allowed 33% in their last 9 games after a slow start. Despite missing two defensive starters today they still are better defense than the stat sheet says. |
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01-08-12 | Atlanta Falcons +3 v. NY Giants | Top | 2-24 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
Falcons +3.5 -115 buy 1/2 - 5.5* NFL POD I'm not sold on the Giants back to back wins vs. the Cowboys and Jets does not really impress me because neither of those teams had much balance on offense and now they face the Falcons who ironically have a lot of balance with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. The Giants pass rush and all the hype of them reminding the media of the 2007 Super Bowl team to me is so far off. For one the Giants actually had a running game in 2007. This year they are ranked dead last in rushing yards and the Falcons have a very capable run stop unit. Yes the Giants came on strong at the end of the year but remember their game against the Redskins? Yuck, I just think this team is a .500 team and not a team that can string off a bunch of wins mainly because their secondary and rushing defense are suspect and the pass rush can not hide everything especially going up against the Falcons who will go into a no huddle offense at any time. I also expect to see Turner have designed runs at Osi Umenyiora who struggles in run defense. The Giants are 23rd in the league in run defense from a ypc aspect allowing 4.5 ypc. The Falcons have been just as hot at the end of the season in fact Matt Ryan has 10 TD passes 0 Interceptions over his last 4 games. Atlanta is +7 turnover margin in their last 3 games while the Giants are +3 both teams rank in the top 10 for the season. In a game where both teams are pretty even you have to take the under dog and that would be the Falcons. I like the fact that they are 8th in RZ defense from TD's allowed and have allowed opponents to get their 15 times less this season to the Giants 46 att to 61. The Giants are 23rd allowing 55.74% TD's in the red zone this season and the Falcons have gotten inside the red zone 3 more times than the Giants and are ranked 13th when they get their in TD%. They are also better at staying on the field as the Giants are 15th, converting 37.38% while the Falcons with balance are 6th 44.39%. Take away the two Victor Cruz plays in the last two games and this Giants team is ordinary and probably sitting home for the playoffs. They're 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite .5 to 3 points while the Road team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 match ups in this series.
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01-07-12 | Detroit Lions +11 v. New Orleans Saints | 28-45 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Lions +11 (4.4* play) Lions +17 O53 3.3* play Jimmy Graham Over 6 receptions, Graham 1st TD +300 (1* play) The Saints have covered 8 straight weeks now and this is a lot of points for a playoff game even considering how hot the Saints have been. To me the Lions do have the match ups that could keep them close in this game. The Lions are top 3 in the league in sacks by only sending 4 or fewer people meaning they can get pressure on Brees and keep 7 back in coverage. The last time these two played it was 24-17 at one point before the Saints went down the field and Brees threw to Graham on 6 of 8 of his throws. Graham presents a huge mismatch for the Lions, but at the end of the day the Lions can keep up in fire power. Stafford should be licking his chops in this one going up against a 30th ranked passing defense he and Brees are both over 5,000 yards for the season and both can score. What I like about Detroit is they are #4 in third down defense holding opponents to 32.84 % while the Saints broke an NFL record this year. I still expect the Saints to score and convert, but the Lions should be able to get a stop here and there to keep this game close or in striking distance. Lions also are 12th in Red Zone defense in terms of % of TD's allowed with 49% while the Saints are 28th. Again you can see the Lions holding the Saints to a FG to get that 10 point cover. Detroit is also 4th in TO margin while the Saints are 20th. I like the Saints to win of course but do not sleep on the Lions here they came on red hot at the end of the year and should keep this one close for a very enjoyable game.
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01-07-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
Texans -3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) These two met just three weeks ago with the Texans winning on a last second TD pass by TJ Yates. Yates actually threw 49 passes in that game as they were playing from behind all game and he took 5 sacks. Surprising was the rushing game worked they had 28 carries for 5.14 ypc. Texans are one of those teams that are rush proof they can run on any team we saw it last year and we saw it this year. When healthy they can run and now they got Andre Johnson back which should open up things even more. People forget just how good this defense has been all year #2 in total yards allowed and they have been consistent 3rd against pass, and 4th against the run and 4th in scoring defense. Bengals start a rookie QB to but the Bengals have been unable to run the ball and that's the advantage they do not have vs. the Texans. Bengals just got run over by the Ravens a week ago. This team has not won a game since 1990 in the playoffs and I don't expect that to change on Saturday. TExans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record, they'll win to go to Baltimore next week.
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01-07-12 | SMU +4 v. Pittsburgh | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
smu/pitt U47 (4.4* pod); SMU +4 (3.3* PLAY)
These teams are quite similar, both lost their star running back and have QB's that struggle that's one reason why I love the under in this one as both team's will try to win with their defense they simply do not have the offensive lines for continuous protection nor do they have the QB's that can lead a team down the field. In fact Pitt was the worst in the nation in sacks allowed with 56. SMU had 26 sacks, but their front line is a lot better than their ranking as they have faced a lot of quick throwing teams like Houston and Tulsa and TCU who just do not give up sacks in fact they faced an average opponent ranked 40th in sacks allowed. This is a team that can certain get to the QB and we will see that in this game. Expect a lot of 1st and 10 running plays from Pitt and again SMU can stop the run they allowed just 3.5 ypc this season while Pitt also can stop the run allowing 3.36. SMU runs a bit better surprisingly out of the run and shoot, but they lack the experience against a defensive line that truly is stout. Their are advantages and disadvantages on both sides, but SMU has more advantages. For one they have their head coach while Pitt lost their HC to Arizona State. They also are more capable moving the ball through the air although they are more prone to turning the ball over I still will take my chances as JJ McDermott is a senior with two All Conference receivers in Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson. That's where I give SMU the edge in this game tomorrow. Defense though will shine on both sides especially on third down, Pitt has dominated allowing 31.84% but they also are just 27% offensively on the road and defensively they're not used to seeing teams that can move the ball or even throw the Big East features some of the worst offenses in the nation and lack any true passing teams with the exception of WV, but still I see Pitt coming up with some sacks turning this game over to a field position and conservative approach on both sides. IN the red zone both teams struggle to get into the end zone and they are both allowing opponents not to get their either. Pitt allows 57.58% TD's, but just 33 attempts, and SMU 52.27% on 44 attempts. SMU's stat is particularly impressive considering they had to play some high power offenses such as Houston, Tulsa, Smiss, TCU, and A&M. This is a team that had high expectations, and they can live up to them with a win here and momentum going into next season. |
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01-06-12 | Kansas State v. Arkansas -8.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Like Arkansas here they are more balanced on both sides of the ball.
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01-04-12 | West Virginia v. Clemson -3 | Top | 70-33 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Clemson -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD
I'm backing Clemson here their 2 losses down the stretch to South Carolina and NC St were without the glue of their offensive line in Phillip Price at LT. The 6'5 315lb tackle is healthy and ready to go and that should be the difference. We saw how dominating Clemson was against Virginia Tech this year and I think that talent shows up again tonight. The key for Clemson is running the ball and this is not the same West Virginia defense of years past. They're 63rd in scoring defense in the Big East? They gave up far too many points to some bad offensive teams. On average they've faced a much less challenging schedule despite facing LSU in non conference ball, Clemson faced 2 SEC teams and their pass defense faced an average 58th passer rating team while WV faced an average 74th. Their run defense faced 47th average rushing offense and WV faced an average 69th. There is no comparison to offenses in the ACC vs. Big East. The health of Andre Ellington will be a key he's 100% and ran for 125 yards against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. We all saw how Virginia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage vs. one of the best rushing teams in the nation last night in Michigan. If Clemson can run on Virginia Tech they can run on West Virginia. West Virginia Rushing defense on paper gave up just 3.79 ypc overall, but 4.78 on the road they were highly inconsistent and gave up 38, 31, 49 points to 3 average Big East offenses in Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse and they haven't faced a QB and offense this good all year long maybe since LSU and they will have their hands full on 3rd downs which I'll get to in a minute. Clemson can also pass on West Virginia in my opinion the pass rush of West Virginia is not what it was in years past and again I love this offensive line and Tahj Boyd to hook up with all his weapons including Sammy Watkins and TE Dwayne Allen. Most of West Virginia's sacks came in one game 10 vs. Pitt and they had 17 in their other 11 games. On the flip side Geno Smith has been excellent in the new offense only 7 interceptions 25 TD's and 65%. Probably the most accurate passer Clemson has faced, but they are one dimensional in the end and when you are one dimensional you have issues picking up 3rd downs. Clemson showed major holes in their run defense this year, but athletically up front they should be able to get Geno Smith. They have more talent up front and WV offensive line has under achieved big time and too often Geno Smith has been rushed allowing him not to pick up 3rd down conversions which to me is the biggest difference separating these two teams. 3rd down offense and defense. Clemson is 31st in the nation completing 44.61% of their 3rd downs and 48.48% in non conference. Now they go up against West Virginia who is holding opponents to 36.65% but a closer look tells me a completely different story. They allowed 45.88% on the road and They only faced two top 40 3rd down offensive teams in Syracuse 36th, and LSU 28th. Both converted on 3rd downs and destroyed West Virginia's offense converting 71% for Syracuse and 50% for LSU. Down the stretch they even gave up 52.63% conversions on third down to a similar type QB that they will face tonight in BJ Daniels and South Florida whom were ranked 87th in the nation in 3rd down offense. Take out Syracuse and LSU and West Virginia has faced an average 98th 3rd down offense. When they have played capable offenses they have failed time and time again. This is the same for their red zone defense which is worse than Clemson overall by 10% and they've allowed nearly 70% TD's on the road this year. Clemson's 3rd down and red zone defense are better in my opinion and West Virginia is just 38.41% converting 3rd downs. Look for Clemson to bring their excellent size and athleticism led by DE Andre Branch on 3rd downs which will turn the game. Another hidden advantage is in special teams and turnovers. West Virginia is -2 and Clemson is +2. Not much of an advantage, but an advantage none the less. Kickoff and Punt Returns also an advantage West Virginia has allowed 24.52 ypr and 2 TD on kickoff's Sammy Watkins has the speed to bring it back at any point 26.27 ypr. Tavon Austin is good in his own right, but Clemson allows just 19.79 yards per return. In a game that should have a ton of points advantage Clemson. They are also allowing 1.5 yards less per punt return, have a higher FG%, and are averaging over 4 more yards per punt. West Virginia is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. ACC and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Clemson is pumped up and following a great ACC Championship with a healthy offensive line should be ready to play well here. |
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01-03-12 | Michigan v. Virginia Tech +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Virginia Tech +3.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I don't think you'll need it but buy the half point. Nobody thinks VT should be here, but they are in a BCS game and that should be motivation for them to show on National TV who Logan Thomas is. Michigan's defense is over rated in my opinion. We already saw how the Big Ten defenses are over rated on Monday it's because the offenses in the Big Ten just are not very good and the same can be true for Michigan's defense although statistically looks solid they really didn't face any crazy good offenses and when they played Notre Dame they were able to do whatever they wanted. Michigan's offense on the other hand can be stopped as they put up just 16 and 14 points in the two games vs. Iowa and Michigan State who play similar type defense to Virginia Tech. Actually it's scary how similar Virginia Tech is to Michigan State as they are 4th in sack % Mich St is #1, they are 6th in completion % defense and MIch St is 13th. They are 15th in opposing QB rating while Mich State is 21st. Even in run defense the parallels again are similar with Virginia Tech ranking 17th in ypc while Michigan State was 5th. Bottom line the ACC has some better offenses in my opinion and Virginia Tech is a better coached team that will have more to play for after their ACC Championship loss. The idea that Denard Robinson has improved his passing is an over statement he still only completed 18 passes and 14 interceptions. Virginia Tech's defense has allowed 50.1% and 14 TD and 15 interceptions. Virginia Tech plays pressure defense and will be able to keep Denard and the running game in check forcing him to throw. The key will be James Gayle who is now healthy for Virginia Tech and showed it vs. Clemson. Also it looks like LB Alonzo Tweedy will also return which should send Kyle Fuller back to CB which can make all the difference. Don't sleep on Vtech's offense Thomas is a huge QB he's shown to be very accurate and doesn't make mistakes. If the game comes down to which defense and which offense makes the plays it'll be the Hokies. They are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. winning teams and Michigan is 8-20 ATS vs. winning teams.
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01-02-12 | Stanford +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Stanford +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) What a match up this is, but I don't see a Stanford team that again are under dogs to be scared of Oklahoma State or this offense. Andrew Luck pulled off a blow out last year defeating Virginia Tech 40-12. Now they face Oklahoma State and their 106th total defense. IN fact Oklahoma State has been able to stop the run or the pass allowing 5.03 ypc on the road this year. They'll have their hands full with Stephan Taylor and this offensive line of Stanford. Stanford up front on both sides could be the difference. They have two possible first rounders on the offensive line that has allowed just 9 sacks and pathed the way for the 20th ranked running game which has averaged 5.33 ypc. LT Jonathan martin and RG David Decastro. Stanford also has 38 sacks both are better than Oklahoma State who has 28 sacks and have allowed 11. The key stat I'm looking at though is sack % as Stanford is ranked 11th, the next best team they played was Texas A&M ranked 5th and they only won 30-29. Other than Texas A&M the big 12 is not loaded with teams that can get to the QB and it's no surprise that Brandon Weeden has only been sacked 11 times. At the end of the day I look at the more balanced team because Stanford has the look of a team that can stop Oklahoma's State's running game to as they have allowed just 3.11 ypc and 2.50 on the road this year. Stanford is just a little bit better they don't make the mistakes that Oklahoma State has forced other teams into in order to blow teams out of the building. Stanford just 15 total turnovers on the year and they are +6 on the season so don't expect Oklahoma State who has turned the ball over 22 times to be + margin in this one. Stanford also better on third down converting 52.17% to Oklahoma State's 50%, but it's again the defense that's making the difference holding opponents to 30.92% 28% on the road compared to Oklahoma State's 40.7%. Stanford is also better in the red zone converting 78.13% into TD's while Oklahoma State can be stalled 65% TD's.
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01-02-12 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +4.5 (4.4* PLAY) Both teams have identical offenses from a statistical perspective. They both have two of the nation's best running backs and are run first type of teams but can also throw with two of the more mistake free QB's. The difference between the two is speed and power. We know all about Oregon's speed and the challenge teams have to face when they play them and on the flip side Wisconsin is more about power on both the offense and defense. They'll hold the advantage in strength and in the past that is the one thing Oregon has had issues with as they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big Ten. They are also losers of 6 of 8 of their last games. Give a team to prepare for Oregon's offense and they've been able to come up with a great game plan. Let's look at the QB's. Wilson was behind only Robert Griffin in QB rating and put together one of the best season's ever with a rating of 191 as he had 31 TD and just 3 interceptions while completing 72.5% while Thomas was also solid 30 TD only 6 interceptions 61.4% 2,493 yards. Oregon gave up a ton of yard through the air this year and Wisconsin seems to have the edge in the QB and the pass defense ranking 3rd in pass defense and 22nd in pass rating defense Oregon was 32nd, but 86th in total pass defense. Also Wilson put his numbers up on better pass defenses ranked on average 62nd while Oregon faced an average 79th rated passer rating. I trust Wilson more than Thomas when the game is on the line. Run offense and defense this is where this game is really even because statistically Oregon is better, but Wisconsin has the ability to really beat up Oregon's front 7 for long drives and take this game over. Oregon averaged 6.53 yards per carry and Wisconsin averaged 5.48. Wisconsin did it against 59th ranked average run defense from a ypc perspective while Oregon did it against a 71st average ranking. Overall Oregon is better in run defense than Wisconsin but one could argue Oregon doesn't see as many run first offenses in the Pac 12. With all we have gone over these teams to me are too even and the advantages are stronger on Wisconsin side for one they are +16 in turnover margin and only 4.9 penalties while Oregon still good at +9 but are averaging 7.2 penalties. Also advantage on Wisconsin side converting 54.14% on third down to Oregon's 44.97%, defensively on 3rd down they are both even and in the red zone Wisconsin has gotten there 7 more times and have scored TD's 87% of the time to Oregon's 76% and defensively they have allowed opponents to get there 19 less times allowing just 57% TD's on 28 attempts while Oregon 47 attempts and 59.5% but 76.5% over their last 5 games has shown some weaknesses including giving up over 30 points to UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game. Illinois a Big Ten team held UCLA to 14 points the other day.
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01-02-12 | Michigan State +3 v. Georgia | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
Michigan State +3 +100 4* play Of the SEC teams in bowl season Georgia probably had the easiest schedule as they did not face Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas in the regular season and then they were exposed by LSU in the SEC Championship game losing 42-10. Michigan State also had a heartbreaking loss in the Big Ten Championship and won't be going to the Rose Bowl yet again. This is a more veteran team than Georgia and although they are not happy about losing that game they do remember coming out in last year's Capital One Bowl and getting destroyed by Alabama 49-7. This team is better and I think they have what it takes to win today. Let's take a look at both QB's because both are pretty good and can play at the next level starting with Kirk Cousins who is the more accurate of the two 65% opposed to 58.8%. Murray has 33 TD's to Cousins 24, but Cousins just 7 interceptions to Murray's 12. Both defenses these two go up against are stout in pass defense, but in my opinion Georgia is a bit over rated having faced just two QB's the entire season in Kellen Moore and Tenn's Tyler Bray both having good games. Georgia is just not used to facing accurate passing QB's and that's what Cousins is with Keshawn Marin and BJ Cunningham on the outside. Both defenses have shown an ability to get to the QB, but Murray has been sacked 13 more times than Cousins. There are some pretty good pass rushes in the Big Ten including Michigan State who was the #1 sack % defense in the nation and had 41 sacks. Georgia got it done often with interceptions and Cousins just doesn't make too many poor decisions even under pressure. Georgia's offensive line will have some real issues in this game and I give the edge to Mich State. Run offense and defense is probably a push, Statistically Michigan State is better allowing 2.9 ypc while Georgia allowed 3.5 and again got even more exposed in the SEC Championship game allowing well over 5 yards per carry. Michigan State on the other hand only allowed 1 team to rush over 4 yards per carry all season and that's pretty consistent. Michigan State's running game also came alive the last 3 games because of Le'Vion Bell who had averaged 5.45 ypc all year and got 7.56, 5.38, and 5.89 over his last 3 games. Finally special teams. We saw how that hurt Georgia in the SEC Championship game and Michigan State has a punt return threat in Keshawn Martin who is explosive averaging nearly 12 yards per return and Nick Hill over 26 yards per kick return. Georgia's kicking game too struggles 7-14 in 40+ yard field goals. I think Georgia overall is a bit over rated and a bit to young to come up with a win after a heartbreaking loss vs. LSU.
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01-02-12 | Nebraska v. South Carolina -2.5 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show |
2.2* PLAY BONUS
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01-01-12 | Detroit Lions -3 v. Green Bay Packers | 41-45 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
Lions -3 3.3* play If Aaron Rodgers plays it may only be for a drive or two. His offensive line is not healthy and they already have the #1 seed locked up so I doubt they will be risking that. They are also without Starks, Cobb, and Jennings again and you'll see Matt Flynn out there. On the flip side the Lions want to win to avoid playing the Saints in the first round assuming the 49ers win. Detroit probably plays the Packers better than anyone else right now and we saw them basically shut them out on Thanksgiving DAy in the first half. I'm sure they remember that and with their secondary stepping up a week ago I see them winning and becoming the 5th seed to avoid a match up in New Orleans.
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01-01-12 | Chicago Bears v. Minnesota Vikings -1 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Vikings -1 5.5* NFL POD Bears went 2-5 on the road and since Cutler went down they have not been the same. Two QB's backing him up have 4 games with 3 interceptions. That just won't get it done and the the Vikings have been very competitive of late and they'll be motivated to win in front of their home crowd here on New Years day. Vikings just 1-6 at home this year haven't gone without at least 2 wins at home since 1967 and I think they avoid that again this year. Bears mentally have probably checked out for the holidays. Urlacher and Briggs aren't 100% and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Look for the duo at QB for the Vikings of Joe Webb and Christian Ponder to take this game over they are by far the better QB's and we remember we live in a QB league.
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12-31-11 | Virginia +3 v. Auburn | 24-43 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Virginia +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* play
Auburn lost both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator to Ark state and Central Florida. Plus they lose their top back in Michael Dyer in this one. Though Auburn always has depth at RB his leadership can't go unnoticed. Meanwhile it's a different story for Virginia who under Mike London has turned the program around. Of course they came up short with a chance to go to the ACC Championship losing 38-0 to Virginia Tech, but I think they've regrouped and I think they got a good match up in this bowl game and they'll be motivated to take down last year's National Champion. Auburn juggles 3 QB's this year and none of them have been great. Virginia's experienced secondary led by Chase Minnifield and S Rodney McLeod should be able to shut it down. Auburn is 106th in passing offense and do most of their damage on the ground it will be critical for Virginia to be able to limit the big plays they gave up earlier in the year in this one. Fortunately Virginia did clean that up and are ranked 32nd in rushing defense. They allow just 3.8 yards per carry ranked 41st, and they are 24th in first downs allowed rushing per game which will be huge in 3rd and short situations. Auburn is 16th in rushing % running the ball 61.53% of the time. Virginia will have to run and keep the clock ticking themselves so they can hold up all 4 quarters. Virginia's rushing attack led by Perry Jones and Kevin Parks averaging 5.02 and 4.69 ypc should be able to pick up yards with a down hill approach where Auburn is weak. If they start to try to take it outside they won't be successful. Auburn has allowed 5.05 ypc this year on the road and 4.66 overall. They haven't dominated a single game in run defense and it's the reason they are ranked 99th. I also think Virginia can have some success passing the ball on Auburn as Auburn may be 44th in passing yards allowed they are 91st in opponent passer rating allowing 142 QB rating. Virginia is just better and more balanced offensively and defensively. The reason they are not favored is because they are from the ACC. Virginia 39.44% on third downs compared to Auburns 35%. That's key because Virginia can stop the run and the pass and are holding opponents to 33.15% on third down and even better 29.6% on the road while Auburn is allowing 53.73% conversions on the road. Auburn also has just 31 attempts in the red zone compared to Virginia's 42. Avoid the big play and Virginia should be able to hold this offense in check. Defensively Virginia is among the best in red zone defense holding opponents to 47% TD percentage and 41% over their last 8 games while Auburn is allowing more attempts and 63% TD's. Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and Auburn is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. the ACC. They lost earlier in the year to Clemson 24 to 38. I see a closer game but with Virginia coming out on top 24 to 21. |
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12-31-11 | UCLA v. Illinois -2 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
Illinois -2 (3.3* play) To me this game is an easy one to decide mainly because the game starts up front and Illinois has the advantage on both sides. UCLA offensive line is mediocre at best and Illinois had 36 sacks and 92 tackles for loss they are physical and have top tier talent look for Whitney Mercilus to have a huge game. UCLA only had 13 sacks which will allow Illinois some breathing room for the first time in quite a while. During their 6 game losing streak they've faced defenses with an average sack % ranking of 43rd in the nation and UCLA is ranked 111th. Look for Illinois to get back to running the ball first as UCLA has given up a ton this year on the ground and look for them to get the best offensive player on the field involved now that they have some time in A.J. Jenkins who has 84 receptions for 1196 yards on the year. UCLA is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 as a dog and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 overall.
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12-31-11 | Utah +3 v. Georgia Tech | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Utah +3 -115 (3.5* play) Utah/GT U50 (2.2*Play) This game is all about Georgia Techs 3rd rushing offense vs. Utah's 7th ranked rush defense and I like Utah to win that battle for one they are used to the triple option from their days in the Mountain West facing Air Force. Secondly Georgia Tech Los when they faced top run defenses putting up 21, 7, 26, and 17 to 38th, 54th, 16th, and 21st run defenses losing all 4 vs. Georgia, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Virginia. Utah has the talent to stop the up the middle runs with their NT 325lb Star Lotulelei who anchors the defense up front and that is usually the key to the triple option, take away the first option. Georgia Tech is 3rd with an 80% run percentage while Utah kicked their average up too 66% over their last 3 games with their injury to Wynn Hays has taken over and although I think he plays a huge part in this game passing the ball because he's been able to digest more of the playbook I think they will try to do most of their damage through Joh White IV who had 1405 yards rushing this year. Georgia Tech struggled in run defense this year allowing 4.70 ypc on the road and 4.53 overall. The one thing I like about Hays at QB is he does not turn the ball over 0 INT in his last 5 games Utah is +10 and +20 in their wins with 32 gained. Georgia Tech is also +2 in the turnover margin but run more of a risk if they get forced to pass it as Utah has had the tendency to come up with interceptions. Also Georgia Tech known for going for it on 4th down and Utah is #1 in the nation allowing just 26% conversions. They are also stout on 3rd down defense 38% while Georgia Tech is 44% on the season and 49% in their last 3 games. That of course carried over to the red zone where they have given up 75% TD's over their last 3 games while Utah was at just 33% over their last 4. Utah is 36-15 in their last 52 as a dog while Georgia Tech is 1-6-1 in their last 8 and winless in bowl games under Paul Johnson.
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12-31-11 | Texas A&M v. Northwestern +10 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Northwestern +10 (5.5*NCAAF POD); Nwestern +300 1* bonus Texas A&M might be the best 6-6 team, but they just can't be thrilled to be playing in this bowl game after a disaster of a season and it doesn't help that they fired their head coach and interim coach Tim DeRuyter has already accepted the job at Fresno State. Just seems like their minds have been elsewhere as reports have been that their practices have been flat and they lost one of their teammates in a car accident so it's unlikely they are 100% focused. Northwestern on the other hand has come on strong as QB Dan Persa finally looks to be 100%. Persa will be playing in his last game and you have to think he's motivated after missing 2 of Northwestern's last few bowl games. Northwestern has always been competitive in bowl games as they lost last year to Texas Tech by 7 as +7.5, by 3 to Auburn as +9 and by 7 to Missouri as +14 covering each of their last 3 dogs. Texas A&M is 0-5 in their last 5 bowls. Again they come in as heavy dogs to a team that just has more talent, but if anyone can stick with them offensively it's going to be Dan Persa who should be able to continue his nation leading pass efficiency as Texas A&M is 113th in passing defense. Northwestern can also run the ball whether it be with their running backs or QB/WR Kain Colter who is averaging over 5 ypc and should provide a spark on multiple plays on Saturday. Northwestern's defense also improved big time this season towards the end, of course they did not have to face competition like A&M, but they'll take their chances and I think Tannehill will throw a few picks and Northwestern will win the turnover battle. Lastly if you are worried about Northwestern getting rushed by the nation's best pass rush no worries Persa is great at avoiding blitzes and he finally seemed healthy down the stretch as they were only sacked 3 times over their last 4 games and that includes 0 against Michigan State the #1 sack % defense.
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12-30-11 | Iowa +14 v. Oklahoma | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
Iowa +14 (3.3* Play) Oklahoma has not been the same since they lost Ryan Broyles. Landry Jones has thrown 5 interceptions and 0 TD in the last 3 games without him. They scored 38 vs. Baylor and we saw their defense Thursday night, 26 vs. Iowa State and 10 vs. Oklahoma State's poor defense. They've also haven't been the same on 3rd down converting just 36% in their last 4 games vs. teams that were to be honest nothing special in third down defense - ranked 65th, 34th, 111th, and 68th. Iowa should be able to stop the run and that should help them in this game. I just don't see Oklahoma being too pumped up for this game and I see them walking through the motions meanwhile Iowa has to be amped to be playing a team that was supposed to go to the National Championship this year. Iowa has won 5 of their last 7 bowl games and seem to play their best against these big time schools going 3-1 vs. the SEC and they beat Georgia Tech and South Carolina in the past 2 years. Iowa's James Vandenberg will have an opportunities vs. Oklahoma's 83rd ranked pass defense. He's got the talent at WR and the experience. Vandenberg was pretty efficient 59.4% 23 TD's to 6 interceptions. Also Iowa only lost 16 balls this year for a +2 turnover margin meanwhile Oklahoma lost 28 and we have seen the trend in these bowl games with the turnovers.
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12-30-11 | Rutgers v. Iowa State +1 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
[b]Iowa State +1 (3.3* play); U45 (4.4* play)[/b]
Both of these teams are pretty even although the statistical ratings might not show it this will be a defensive game despite Iowa State on paper being ranked 99th overall. Iowa State has faced 4 top 10 offenses this year and 6 top 20 teams. Meanwhile Rutgers has faced 1 top 20 team and gave up 41 points to them. Yankee Stadium is where this game is but Iowa State has been poised on the road all year long they came east and defeated Uconn a common opponent that Rutgers lost to 22-40 in the last week of the season. That was an emotional loss because Rutgers was playing for a chance at the Big East crown but lost and it's been a long time since that game, but I think it's still hurting. Meanwhile Iowa State is just thrilled to be here and have had a great year including an upset of Oklahoma State. Let's talk rushing offense and defense. Clearly this is where this game is headed considering both QB's are among the worst in the nation in pass efficiency offense and Iowa State rarely wants to pass the ball considering Rutgers makes most of their game changing plays when teams drop back to pass. Since Rutgers is vulnerable in run defense I think that's where they will attack. They allowed 3.86 on the season but 4.34 on the road and gave up chunks to teams that really never were good at running the ball all year and it came at the end of the year. Louisville 102nd 3.3 ypc on the year ran for 5.5 ypc, WV 80th 3.8ypc on the year ran for 5.68 and North Carolina earlier in the year ran for 4.55ypc and they are ranked 72nd. Iowa State has capable runners and a talented offensive line to run behind they are ranked 36th in rushing yards and came on strong at the end of the year rushing for 215 yards against a Kansas State run defense that is statistically better than Rutgers. Rutgers meanwhile had one of the worst rushing offenses on the year 2.62 ypc and Iowa State is more vulnerable their so I expect Rutgers to really have a balanced attack because they will have more luck running the ball as Iowa State's pass defense is the real deal. Iowa State can match up with Mohammed Sanu they have talented LB to help on the short routes and CB Leonard Johnson should do a good job here. On the road this year they held opponents to 53.9% on the road 6 TD and 8 interception I think you will see a hesitant Rutgers team to really open up the passing game considering they were barely over 50% on the year as far as pass completion %. Another reason why I'm liking the under in this game. Add in the fact that both teams play great on 3rd down and in the red zone on defense and the incapable offenses I feel it's a great way to see the under. 3rd down defense Iowa State is 38.33% and remember the offenses they faced, While Rutgers 33% facing mediocre offenses. Offensively Iowa State is much better 42.33% which is another reason I give them the edge to win the overall game because Rutgers is 37%. The same holds up in the red zone. Both teams getting their similar amount of times 48 and 46 attempts Rutgers 54% TD's and Iowa State 58%. Defensively Rutgers has allowed 46.15% while Iowa State allowed 48%, but over their last 4 games allowed just 26.6% vs. some solid opponents. |