Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-05-11 | Florida International -3 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 48 m | Show |
FLINT -2.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Western Kentucky has been on fire, and I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade them. The opportunity is when they face a balanced offense, and today they not only will face a balanced offense, but a balanced defense one that's ranked 30th in the nation in stopping the run which is the strength of Western Kentucky with RB Bobby Rainey among one of the best RB's in the country. Florida International has held Rainey under 100 yards in the last two years. Western Kentucky does not have the defense to stop Florida International's balanced attack. For one UL Monroe scored 28 pts on them just last week racking up 456 yards in a 31-28 loss to Western Kentucky. They also allowed 480 yards to MIddle Tennessee which was the last balanced offense they faced. Still MTSU has zero defense ranked 105th in the nation so a 36-33 win for Western Kentucky was no surprise, but Florida International has the 39th ranked total defense. They allow just 3.51 yards per carry, 3.67 on the road and as I mentioned they've had success containing Rainey before and when you don't have to worry about the passing game from Western Kentucky you can get real agressive vs. the run. On the flip side Western Kentucky allows 5.50 yards per carry at home on defense and FIU can run the ball as well as pass. Actually they have the best player on their side of the ball with TY Hilton who will be used in the running and receiving game. He'll have Wesley Carrol throwing to him who has 1740 yards, 9 TD 3 interceptions and 62% completion rate. I like Carrol vs. the 102nd ranked pass defense. Western Kentucky wins when they get sacks 12 in their 4 wins, but FLINT has allowed only 11 sacks all year. Wky is also -6 in turnover margin at home and as we mentioned Florida just does not turn the ball over and I don't think that will change. The last few advantages are extra preparation as Florida has 4 extra days to prepare for this game that's a key conference game. With no look ahead game on the horizon you bet they were concentrated on Western Kentucky and stopping the run and their leading receiver TE Jack Doyle who was shut down vs. ULMON which has one of the nation's worst defenses. To make matters worst Western Kentucky can't make field goal's they are just 3-12 this season. Look for Florida International to make some statements in the red zone and hold the momentum throughout the game
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11-05-11 | Ole Miss -1.5 v. Kentucky | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 17 m | Show | |
Mississippi -1.5 (3.3* play) Like Ole Miss here this game really comes down to the running game and the running defense and Ole Miss is just a little bit better. For one thing Kentucky may have 3 running backs out in this game and Ole Miss had one of the better offensive lines coming into the year. Overall Kentucky just 2.98 yards on the ground in conference play and they are allowing 5.85 yards per carry. Miss finally has a healthy RB in Brandon Bolden and he's averaging 5.74 yards per carry and Jeff Scott behind him is averaging 4.63 yards per carry. Look for Miss to pound the ball in this one as Kentucky is 99th in run defense and 118th in total offense event hough they are at home I like Miss here as it should be a cake walk for them in terms of stopping the run as they have faced some of the best running teams of late. Also Morgan Newton at QB for Kentucky is a nightmare he's only completing 48% of his passes and their are rumors a true freshmen will get a lot of action this week. Kentucky is 31% on 3rd downs for the year and have turned the ball over 19 times this year. Miss has played a lot better at times but have fallen a part in the third quarter and i think this is the first game there is no way that happens with Kentucky's offense going nowhere. Houston Nutt is 8-4 in November with Ole Miss and he's played a lot of young talent early which will pay huge dividends down the stretch. One guy to keep an eye on is Nick Brassell he plays on both sides. Also take a look at the huge advantage Miss will have in the punting game as they are #1 in the nation with 27.5 yards per return for 2 TD's, while Kentucky is averaging 1.7 yards per return.
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11-05-11 | Michigan v. Iowa +4 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
Iowa +4 -105 (3.5* NCAAF EB) I look for Iowa to return home where they are 5-0 and come up with a big win vs. a Michigan team that continues to over achieve in my opinion. They lost to a very bad Minnesota team but returning home should be the difference and I believe the defense will have a chip on their shoulder being under dogs. Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog, while people continue to over rate a Michigan team that on paper has a very good defense, but watching the games I just have mixed opinion on them. They are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 as a favorite 3.5-10 points and do not deserve to be road favorites against a consistently good program like Iowa. Iowa did beat Northwestern and Pitt at home so their 5-0 record is not all to bad teams, and they have a running game and a passing game. Marcus Coker in his last 3 games alone has 515 yards and 6 TD, Jeff Vandenberg also has 17 TD's just 4 interceptions while completing 62.2% of his passes for 1918 yards. Michigan's defense that everyone is excited about has only faced 2 balanced offenses in Notre Dame and Michigan State and Iowa's is a bit better than Mich State and a little worst than Notre Dame, and those were the two games Michigan's defense struggled. This is just Michigan's 3rd road game. Iowa should have the advantage in mental mistakes as Michigan has 12 interceptions to Iowa's 4 and Iowa is one of the nation's least penalized teams with just 4.4 per game.
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11-04-11 | Central Michigan v. Kent State | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Kent State -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
So we are backing Kent for the second week in a row. I thought their offense made major strides a week ago after a bye week where HC Darrell Hazell was able to shift the offensive line around. |
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11-02-11 | Temple v. Ohio +4 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
Ohio +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Ohio + Love Ohio here first of all Temple struggles on defense when they can not pin their ears back and go after either a one dimensional running or one dimensional passing attack. At this point Ohio can do both on offense and are just as bit as good on defense as Temple is. Ohio is a balanced offense they can pass with Tettleton and run as always. Temple has faced one team like that and it was Toledo who put up 36 points on them. Ohio has a much deeper more talented defense than Toledo and they are also home with their new black out jerseys on national television. Bernard Pierce is the best player on the field, and Temple has him, but he has not been practicing the last two weeks. Temple had a hard time containing WR Paige from Toledo and should have an even tougher challenge with Lavonn Brazil who will be playing in the NFL next year.
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11-01-11 | Northern Illinois +9 v. Toledo | Top | 63-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Northern Illinois +9 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Toledo certainly wants revenge from last year's 65-30 laugher vs. Northern Illinois, but I'm not so sure they'll get it. Northern Illinois is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 on turf and they rushed for over 400 yards vs. Toledo last year. Toledo has played well against the run, but partially because they have not faced a dual threat QB or a team that can do both pass and run. Their 4 conference opponents have either been good at one of the other and all 4 struggle to score points. Facing Northern Illinois at home will be a different game as Northern Illinois can throw with Chandler Harnish and they are one of the best teams in the country in running the ball ranked 11th. Unlike Temple who can not throw a lick, Harnish has two 300 yards passing days and Toledo can give up a bunch as they have allowed 295 yards passing per game at home and a 151 QB rating. Harnish does not turn the ball over and is completing 63% of his passes and 50.88% of third downs. When I look at this game I wonder if Toledo can get into third and manageable plays because they just are not as good on 3rd down as Northern Illinois and don't have as much balance. Also on defense Toledo has forced 19 turnovers that's been this teams strength, but they have not been as good as Northern Illinois in creating negative plays. Look for Northern Illinois to force more 3rd and longs.
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10-31-11 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Chiefs +3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Battle 1st TD +500 (1* play) Love the Chiefs here the Chargers looked awful a week ago late in the game vs. the Jets defense and the Chiefs have the secondary to give the Chargers issues. The Chiefs have really turned it around and they are allowing 40 yards less per game at home than on the road and 26 yards less over their last 3 games. They lost 17-20 in San Diego last time out in a close game, but penalties and missed opportunities were the difference in that game. The Chiefs team really came together and Arrowhead is not an easy place to play. I think it will be rocking tonight on Halloween and the Chiefs will get a win to force a 3 way tie on top of the division.
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10-30-11 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Seattle Seahawks +2 | 34-12 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Seahawks +2 (4.4* NFL Shocker) I think getting Travaris Jackson back could be a huge deal for the Seahawks who just two weeks ago went into NY and beat the Giants. The defense is significantly over rated and I think the Bengals being favored on the road is a joke. IN the Bengals 4 wins, the combined record of the opponent is 9-17 and they beat the Bills after the Bills came off a huge emotional win vs. the Patriots and were due for a let down. We capitlized on 3 Bengals games this year fading them and backing them and we look to win here again and this time we fade the Bengals who are without Cedric Benson. That makes them one dimensional and asking a rookie to pass the ball on the road especially in Seattle won't be a good thing. The Seahawks are allowing a league low 3.2 yards per carry and are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team that has a winning road record. Bengals are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 as a favorite 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a road favorite. I also expect Leon Washington to make some big plays on special teams.
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10-30-11 | New England Patriots -2.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 17-25 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Patriots -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare and he rarely loses going 9-2 in his coaching career. Last year he beat the jets 45-3. Patriots should be hungry vs. the Steelers and Tom Brady is 6-1 in his career vs. the Steelers with 14 TD 3 INT and 286 yards/game. Steelers #2 ranking in total defense to me is not telling us the full story as the Steelers have faced just one offense all year in the Houston Texans. Brady and the Patriots have the #1 overall offense and they should be able to runt he ball against a suspect Steelers run defense that's not as good as years past. The Steelers have played the Titans, Jaguars and Cardinals the last 3 weeks and they also have wins vs. the Colts (barely) and the Seahawks. I don't see any playoff teams in that mix. Patriots are also off an ATS loss and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 following an ATS loss. I thought the bye came at the right time for this team as their offense was scoring less and less points. Patriots should re discover themselves against a Steelers defense that's just not as good as years past and the Patriots are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Pats get Jered Mayo back on defense and should be able to get pressure on Big Ben as the offensive line for the Steelers is just awful and Big Ben loves holding onto the football and throwing it deep.
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10-30-11 | Indianapolis Colts +9 v. Tennessee Titans | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
Colts +9 (3.3* EB play); Colts +320 1* play Love the Colts after they were embarassed a week ago. They were basically shut out right in a 62-7 loss. Teams always play significantly better the week after they play horrible. Actually 65% get wins after getting shut out, now the Colts were not shut out but it goes to show you how teams react and the Colts have the veteran leadership and the match up to do so. Titans are 32nd running the ball and the Colts can't stop a nose bleed, what else is new? Chris Johnson is not the same he's averaging just 2.9 yards per carry right now and the now the passing game of the Titans has never been the same since losing Kenny Britt as Matt Hasselback is completing just 55% of his passes since losing him. The Titans defense is no better giving up 41 and 38 points the last two weeks. I think the Colts defense is more angry and I think Hasselback has to hold onto the ball way to long to find an open receiver. Colts defense will come up with a big win here and create some turnovers with that pass rush. Overall before the last game they really haven't played that bad. Curtis Painter has a 85.2 QB rating and has not turned the ball over. He should be helped greatly today with the ability of a balanced attack as the Titans are 24th vs. the run. I expect Delone Carter to be highly motivated with the carries he gets with Addai not being 100%. Carter had 10 carries for 89 yards a week ago with a 42 yard run. Titans just 17-42 ATS in their last as a home favorite 3.5 to 10 points.
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10-29-11 | Arizona +4.5 v. Washington Huskies | 31-42 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
Arizona +4.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Arizona like I did a week ago vs. UCLA. They have an extra day to prepare for Washington team that to me has been outkicking their coverage and over achieving. They were embarased at Stamford and really lack the defense to stop Nick Foles and an improving running game that rushed for well over 200 yards vs. UCLA. Washington gave up some big time yardage on the ground in the last two games which will make Arizona's QB Nick Foles even more dangerous with Criner and Buckner on the outside vs. WAshington's 110th pass defense. Arizona was +182 yards in the match up last year and averaged 6.3 yards per carry while holding Washington to 3ypc. I don't expect Washington to be concentrating on revenge this is a sandwhich game they though they could win. They had Stanford, then this home game and then they welcome Oregon. The tables have been turning Arizona's defense continues to get better allowing just 3.28 yards per carry last 3 games Washington has allowed 5.59 ypc last 3 games. The firing of Stoops opened the eyes of this team and the change of Tim Kish as the head coach was a good move and the defense has changed to a more aggressive style and we saw it last game. With Utah, Colorado ULLAF, and a rivalry Arizona State game players are definitely believing they can go to a bowl game despite their miserable start and it carries over here. Dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Arizona is the best team Washington has faced all year at home and they have allowed 56% conversions on 3rd down to those other teams. Arizona and Nick Foles should move the ball with ease.
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10-29-11 | Southern Mississippi v. UTEP +10 | 31-13 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 12 m | Show | |
UTEP +10 (3.3* play) UTEP +320 (1* bonus) Southern Miss just came off a huge win and is now ranked in the top 25. Hold on a second though UTEP is better than their record indicates and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs a team with a winning record. They nearly took down Houston 42-49 so we can take them seriously. Now they've gotten it done with the running game averaging 292 rushing yards over their last 3 games and have just 30 attempts passing in the last 2. That means a slower game keeping Smiss off the field and giving them a cover ATS and a chance to win out right because... Smiss is giving up rushing yards 4.91 yards per carry, and 225/game on the road this year. When they do punt they feature the nation's best punter in Ian Campbell who averages 48 yds per kick giving them an unknown weapon against Smiss. UTEP's defense is also better at home allowing opponents just 28% conversions on 3rd downs and should be able to get off the field from time to time. This defense also only has allowed 2 TD's in the red zone in 11 attempts by opponents.
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10-29-11 | Stanford v. USC +8.5 | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
[b]USC +8 4.4* play[/b]
This is like usc's bowl game and they would love to knock off Stanford I believe they have a chance as standards defense is vulnerable in pass defense and matt Barkley is just as good as Andrew luck so far this season and he's faced a much more challenging schedule. We saw USC give Stanford fits last year and I still think that stanford team was better than this years team and I believe USC is still under rated and have the better athletes in this one. |
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10-29-11 | Boston College +7.5 v. Maryland | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 13 m | Show | |
Boston College +8 (4* play) BC owes Maryland some payback for a 24-21 heartbreaker a year ago. I just do not see Maryland who can't even name a starting QB pull off a win by more than a TD. Boston College continues to improve and we saw a glimpse of the old defense last week as they held Virginia Tech to 6 points in the first half. More importantly is the advantage BC has up front on offense with the big offensive line and an improving running game since losing RB Montel Davis. Rolandan Finch has had back to back quality games. 18 carries 92 yards vs. Virginia Tech's 7th ranked run defense, 19 for 81 vs. Clemson. Now vs. an undersized front 7 of Maryland that's allowing 5.20 yards per carry this year I"m confident BC can stay in this game especially since they are only converting 37% of their RZ attempts into Touchdowns and BC is holding opponents to 41% TD in red zone. Luke Kuechly is everywhere for BC averaging 17 tackles per game. BC is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points while Maryland is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite.
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10-29-11 | Michigan State +4 v. Nebraska | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
Mich State +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I love Mich State even after their big win last week. Mainly because Nebraska to me is not ready for Big Ten competition. For one Mich State beat Wisconsin and Nebraska was dominated by them and they also beat Ohio State who had Nebraska beat until Braxton Miller got hurt and they lost momentum in the 3rd quarter. Mich State forced a better QB that loves to run in Denard Robinson as Mich State won 28-14 in that game holding Denard to 9-24 passing and 18 rushes for just 42 yards. Michigan State is allowing just 2.91 yards per carry in conference play. Mich State has been dominant on 3rd down converstions allowed holding opponents to 27.5% in conference play. That will be a huge advantage Saturday when Mich State stops the running game early forcing Taylor Martinez to be a thrower which we are all well aware that's never a good thing and a reason why they can't win this game despite Mich State coming off a huge win. Nebraska is no Nebraska on defense they allow 4.66 yards per carry and they have just 9 sacks, just 1 per game in conference games. While Michigan State can stop the run and they have 19 sacks in 3 conference games. Kirk Cousins is a veteran and should have all day to throw and the running game continues to get better by the day. nebraska is just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite and 8-17 ATS in their last 25 after scoring 40 points in previous game as they played Minnesota last week the Big Ten's worst team. Lastly Nebraska is allowing 80% of conference opponents red zone attempts to be touchdowns and Michigan State is scoring 90% of their red zone attempts in conference play as TD's. Michigan State has also allowed half as many red zone attempts as Nebraska's defense on the year so again I'm going with the defensive team that continues to get better at their weaknesses meanwhile Nebraska continues to show they can not have a balanced offensive attack.
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10-28-11 | BYU +14 v. TCU | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
BYU +14 -120 BUY
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10-27-11 | Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -13.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Miami -13.5 (4* NCAAF POD)
Yep I |
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10-26-11 | Connecticut +10.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Uconn + 10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Sure I |
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10-25-11 | Troy +7 v. Florida International | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
Troy +7.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NCAAF POD
Troy is on revenge here returning 16 starters that remember their loss quite well to FIU at the end of last year 52-35. Part of that problem was stopping the run and turning the ball over as they were -3 in turnover margin in that game. I don |
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10-23-11 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. Oakland Raiders | 28-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
Chiefs +4 (4* play) Chiefs have scored 20+ points in there last two games and although they can be beat on the ground I think they can sell out and stop the running game of McFadden and Bush enough to cause red zone issues. I like the Chiefs in the red zone better than the Raiders today. Chiefs offense and defense has improved and the team seems to be on the same page. I would not be shocked to see this as a Chiefs win.
Cowboys -3.5/Steelers +6/Packers pk 3* play -110 |
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10-23-11 | Atlanta Falcons +4 v. Detroit Lions | 23-16 | Win | 101 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Falcons +4 (4.4* play) Can the young Lions rebound from an emotional loss? I don't think so, well I still think they have a shot to win this game, but they'll come from behind to do it and I think a FG is what separates these two. Falcons look to be on the right track and the defense has looked better in recent weeks and they are starting to protect Matt Ryan. They are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 as a road dog 3.5 to 10 points while the Lions are now starting to have to cover the spread as home favorites and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a 3.5-10 point favorite. They are no longer the "under dog" and that will take some time to get used to for sure. The loss of Jahvid Best takes away the Lions explosive screen and stretch run plays where Best can break a run at any time. Maurice Morris is capable, but I like the Falcons to be able to stop this run game. Either way this game goes back and forth and the Falcons have the QB and the offense to stay in it. I see them running the ball again Turner 27 carries last week and the Lions gave up 200 yards to the 49ers on the ground.
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10-23-11 | Chicago Bears -1 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Bears -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Bears in London. Both teams are on the road and I'm confident in the Bears who continue to fly under the radar because of 3 losses, but as of right now they lost to the three best teams in the NFC in the Packers, Lions, and Saints. They are still the Bears and have better defense than the Bucs who rank in the the bottom of the league 25th in total defense. TB last road game had them losing 3-48 vs. the 49ers another physical defense. The loss before that on the road against the Redskins, a physical defense. I see a trend here I don't think the Bucs can match the physical intensity in this game. They are also without their starting C Jeff Faine which should be a big loss. On the Bears side I like the way J'Marcus Webb played vs. sack leader Jarred Allen. He should have the advantage vs. Clayborn I look for him to continue his progression. I also think he'll have an advantage as their will be more Bears fans in the stadium than Bucs this will be like a home game for them. Special Teams should play a critical role with both defenses dominating the game and that means Devin Hester. I believe Tampa will kick away from him, but that will lead to some mistakes and short punts. on the other side the Bears punter Podlesh is 7th in the league with 40.2 net yards per punt.
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10-22-11 | SMU +3 v. Southern Miss | 3-27 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
SMU +3.5 -120 (3.5* PLAY) Smiss had a huge win over Navy and then they went on a bye. Not a good thing last year they had a huge win and then gave up 50 points to UAB at home. SMU is clearly more of a threat than UAB and JJ McDermott is 5-0 since taking over at starter and he's led an explosive offense that has looked good against TCU and UCF two respected defenses. SMU also ranks 24th in total defense and this is the difference maker I believe. They average 3 sacks a game which is first in the conference. They can stop the run which is what SMISS relies on with 6.04 ypc at home and SMU is allowing opponents just 2.90 ypc. They are also forcing field goals with only 50% of their opponents red zone trips turning into TD's. Smiss defense has rebounded from early struggles, but they have not faced a balanced attack since maybe LA Tech which they only won by two at home. SMU just got back another weapon in Sr. WR Cole Beasley last year and he had 10 receptions for 134 yards vs. UCF. He balanced the offense even more that's led by C-USA's leading rusher Zach Line who is just a beast. I think SMU is clicking at the right time and Smiss going on a bye was at the wrong time.
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10-22-11 | Penn State v. Northwestern +4.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 60 m | Show |
Northwestern +4.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Yes I'm backing Northwestern again. At 2-4 and with some easy games on the docket this team still has a chance to go bowling and have a positive season. This match up could not come at the right time as Penn State's passing game is among the worst in the country. Their QB's are completing 50.9% of their passes and are just not accurate. Northwestern has really struggled to get off the field the last 3 weeks allowing opponents to convert 60% of their 3rd downs, but those opponents were very good on 3rd downs two of the 3 were over 50% on the season and now they get a break with Penn State who is 39% for the season. On the other side of things Northwestern has too much offense for Penn State to win by more than a field goal. Dan Persa is the nation's most accurate passer the same was true last year and since his return this team is converting 54% of his passes. This is the same team that had Michigan and Illinois on the ropes in the 3rd quarter. Penn State barely won at Indiana and Indiana has been god awful and they've been worse on defense ranked 105th in total defense yet Penn State still only scored 16 points. The Penn State offense also lack a go to WR after losing top target Derek Moye again this is a great break for Northwestern that needs a win in the worst way. Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Penn State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games while Northwestern is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points. The secret weapon that many don't know about and it's going to come through in this match up in a huge way is Kain Colter. He's a real weapon started the year at QB he can play WR and wild cat. He's a huge threat in the running game and he'll get touches at QB once again. Okay so many may think Penn State can just run all over Northwestern and keep Persa off the field, well that's not true their defense is holding opponents to 3.59 ypc over the last 3 games against some pretty good rushing offenses in Illinois and Michigan in particular. Penn State's ranked 7th in pass defense but, They have not faced a QB all season long. Please name one? Persa is arguably one of the best QB's in the league and the 7th ranked Penn State pass defense will be exposed. Don't forget Northwestern had a 21-0 lead before Penn State got a TD with 3 seconds left last year at home and that changed momentum of hte game as Penn State won 35-21 outscoring Northwestern 28-0 in the 2nd half. Don't think Northwestern doesn't remember that, and Colter is a big enough of a threat to keep Penn State from stopping Northwestern on 3rd down.
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10-22-11 | Clemson v. Houston -23 | 28-63 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show | |
Houston -22.5 (3.3* play) Love Houston here even with all the points and their defense is starting to play extremely well. When backing a team like this you want to make sure their defense can get off the field on 3rd down to get the potent offense back on. Marshall is one of the worst in the country converting just 30% on 3rd downs and Houston 37% on defense so 1/3 of the time they are going to get off the field that's bad news for Marshall that is anemic on offense facing the #1 offense on Saturday. Marshall hasn't been horrible and they arguably have the best defensive talent in the country in Vin Curry already 9.5 sacks, but Keenum does not get sacked just 7 times this year. Houston has 17 sacks themselves which should be a huge advantage for them on that side of the ball when they face inexperienced QB's as Marshall is not sure who will start or play the most. Houston has had an extra week of preparation and Marshall is not scaring anyone with their passing game averaging 176 yards through the air going up against Houston you have to be able to move the ball through the air and they can't. Houston has the balanced offense and should put 40 or 50 points up on Marshall that just lacks the defense to stay at it for a full 4 quarters. They feature a 3 headed RB attack that can rip yards of with Beal, Hayes, and Simms. Marshall won't be able to keep Houston from moving the chains they are converting 56% of their 3rd downs this year.
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10-22-11 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +12 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 37 h 57 m | Show | |
Emich +12 (4* play); Emich +380 1* play Very quietly Eastern Mich is putting together a solid season and they lost 45-30 last year at Western Mich so they weren't that far away then especially considering they have the 15th ranked running game and Western Mich has allowed 5.96 yards per carry, 6.85 on the road and 7.30 in the 2nd half of games this year meaning Eastern Mich gets up in this game they can stay on top. A week ago Tavonti Greene and Dominique White had 257 yards rushing against Central Mich which has a much better run defense allowing 4.35 yards per carry. Last year Eastern Mich had 4.9 ypc vs. Wmich and held onto the ball for nearly 40 minutes despite losing due to their 3 turnovers. They have just 4 turnovers in their 3 home games this year. Eastern Mich defense is also better than a year ago they already have 3 more sacks then they did a year ago and I expect them to really play aggressive and go after the talented passing game of Western Mich. Don't sleep on this secondary they were #1 in pass defense in 2009 in the nation, yes you heard that right, but htey did drop to 119th in pass efficiency defense in 2010. They are experienced and have the ability especially at home to get to the QB and force some mistakes as Western Mich has turned the ball over 15 times this year. This is a trophy game for Eastern Mich as their head coach called it so expect a lot of energy. They had 4 starters return on the OL and they are loaded with depth, they were 2nd in the MAC last year in rushing so their is no secret that Eastern Mich competing was a long time coming and this would be a big statement inside the MAC!
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10-22-11 | Illinois v. Purdue +4.5 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show | |
Purdue +4 (3.3* play); Purdue lost 44-10 last year and this is major revenge and I don't think Illinois has emotionally rebounded from their loss last week. Illinois also may have the worst special teams in the nation as they are 112th in punt returns, 107th in punting and 119th in kick returns. Last year Illinois looked like an improved team that was rolling then they had an emotional loss to Michigan and followed that up with a terrible loss to Minnesota and I think history repeats itself. Purdue has been rolling with their running game that has averaged over 5 yards per carry. Despite Illinois allowing 2.70 ypc, Purdue has proven they can run the ball behind Bolden/Shavers. Penn State was only allowing 3 yards per carry and they are more tested than Illinois front line having played Alabama and Temple so I was impressed with what the duo backs. Add in Illinois turnover issues of late 6 in their last 3 games and they are coming back to reality and they are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 as a favorite 3.5-10 points they are a better team flying under radar.
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10-21-11 | Rutgers +2 v. Louisville | Top | 14-16 | Push | 0 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Rutgers +2 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Rutgers +8 U46 2.2* teaser
Love Rutgers tonight. Louisville has a very similar team in that their offense is not very good and their defense is very good, but Rutgers just has more weapons on offense and is building and improving each week. Their defense is also been great leading the nation in takeaways and 2nd in sacks two things that will hurt Louisville tonight as Rutgers avenges last year |
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10-20-11 | UCLA v. Arizona -4 | Top | 12-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Arizona -4 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
The coaching change of Mike Stoops could not have came at a better time. |
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10-18-11 | Florida International v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
Ark State -3 @ -108 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game comes down to Ryan Alpin in the loss against Florida International last year he threw for just 126 yards, but now it |
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10-16-11 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Oakland Raiders | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
Browns +7 3.3* Afternoon Bonus
I like the Browns here coming off a bye and the Raiders coming off a huge emotional victory with the death of their owner Al Davis they went on the road and won at Houston now Cleveland comes in under the radar. The brown's defense can stop the pass and make you one dimensional as Joe Haden is quickly becoming a star. Also the Raiders are a team that likes to play as an under dog they are 2-12 ATS in their last14 as a home favorite and the Browns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a road dog 3.5 to 10 points. |
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10-16-11 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Colts +7 -120 buy 1/2 (4* play) Colts are not this bad, and the Bengals offense is not going to be blowing anyone out. Curtis Painter looks so much better than Kerry Collins did and I think the Colts can come up with an upset in this game. Don't sleep on them Painter does not turn the ball over and that should keep the Colts in any game especially with the pass rush they can bring. Either way I expect lots of running from both teams and a game decided by a field goal. This line is inflated based on the last two weeks where the Bengals have escaped narrowly with wins which we capitalized on both times. This week we faded them as they are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 3.5 to 10 points.
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10-16-11 | San Francisco 49ers +5 v. Detroit Lions | 25-19 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
49ERS +5 (3.3* NFL EB play) Lions have been down and really have not played that well needing 2nd half come backs, and even on Monday night they got the win but did not play a full game. Now they come off an emotional win on a Monday night with short time to prepare for one of the best defenses in the game. The Lions won't be able to run the ball at all and the Niners are keeping teams passing games in check. Look for the 49ers to be in this game all game long and have a shot to pull off the shocking win as I see the Lions coming out flat in this game and Alex Smith has been playing great without turning the ball over just 1 interception all year.
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10-16-11 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
Falcons -3 @ -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Take out the poor 2nd halfs this team has played in back to back weeks and they'd have this line at a TD. I think the line is a bit off especially since Matt Ryan has lost only 3 times as a starter at home and two of them against Aaron Rodgers. The Panthers are also playing everyone close but I think this is the game they lose by a TD or more and it's also the game the Falcons get back to doing what they do best which is running the ball. Panthers can't stop anyone they are ranked 27th vs. the run and they are giving up TD's not field goals. Luckily CAm Newton has kept them in every game, but the Falcons are a different defense at home and we saw that vs. the Packers for a good portion of that game. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog 3.5 - 10pts and the Falcons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU loss. This team fights adversity well and they have some real leaders on both sides of the ball. The Falcons have started to rush the passer better and protect Matt Ryan better which are two ingredients to success. Lastly the Panthers are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 @ Atlanta.
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10-15-11 | Northwestern +6 v. Iowa | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 0 m | Show | |
Nwestern +6 (4.4* play) Nwest +212 (1* bonus) Dan Persa is back the only reason they did not beat Illinois is he got banged up but we won that game ATS but lost our MOney line bonus at 3 to 1 in that game. Persa threw for 336 yards a week ago vs. Michigan and it was the defense that could not stop Michigan's dual threat QB. Well this week they don't have to face a dual threat QB which is a relief for the defense they have had 3 games in a row having to stop backfields that just operate differently than most teams. Illinois is not easy to stop and Army has the triple option that they were not used to seeing. Now this becomes a very big game for Northwestern and Persa is not about to let his Sr. year slip away. He's had Iowa's number in the past and Iowa does not have an offense and their defense is not as good as years past either. Iowa was getting beat bad by Pitt before coming back late and they lost in OT to Iowa State there is nothing impressive on their resume including their 13-3 loss vs. Penn State. There is no doubt in my mind that Northwestern will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Penn State had 395 total yards vs. them and Penn State's offense is embarrassing. I expect Persa to have a great game and if they can avoid the 2nd half struggles of losing double digit leads in the 2nd half they should win this game. Iowa's QB James Vandenberg is not a mobile QB that can buy time to find open guys and he also lacks the accuracy to make quick throws. I like Northwestern's defense to rebound from some awful games and we know Northwestern will win the turnover battle they are +7 on the year and hardly ever turn the ball over. Northwestern is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a road dog 3.5 - 10 points.
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10-15-11 | Florida -2 v. Auburn | 6-17 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 1 m | Show | |
Florida -2 (5* Prime Time) I love Florida here they just had back to back weeks of playing against the two favorites to go to the National Championship with LSU and Alabama the two best defenses in the nation and maybe two of the more dominating defenses we have seen in many years. They lost their QB in the Alabama game, but Florida has plenty of talent to over come that loss especially going up against an Auburn team that is starting to fade out after a surprising hot start. Auburn's defense just is not there to give Florida any problems. Auburn is ranked 104th in total defense and 103rd vs. the run. Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps should have a field day and Auburn has shown a lot of issues defending teams operating out of the spread so expect Charlie Weis to use a lot of his spread packages and rotate QB's based on the plays. Yes, Florida has been vulnerable against the run the last two weeks and yes Auburn can run the ball with Michael Dyer, but Florida just faced two of the best offensive lines int he country and they are better than Auburn's bunch. Auburn is also one dimensional unlike LSU and Alabama who have a balanced attack. They are ranked 106th in passing and have a QB issue of their own. Trotter went 6-19 vs. Arkansas and teams have begun to stack the box to contain Dyer and I think Florida can do that on Saturday. Some key stats and takeaways from this game are. Auburn is allowing 50% conversions on 3rd down on defense while Florida is allowing 30%, no contest Florida can get off the field quicker than Auburn. Florida has allowed just 6 sacks and Auburn has just 7 sacks on the season. Florida should be able to keep Auburn's defense honest as they'll have time to throw, when they actually do. Both of these teams have a common opponent in their own building playing Florida Atlantic. Florida won 41-3 and were +333 yards despite 3 turnovers, while Auburn won 30-14 they were just +8 yards. Florida had 150 more yards on offense proving in my opinion that not only is their defense better but their offense is too and that is evident considering the line opened at pk and has moved to -2. Florida is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 as a road favorite and Auburn is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss.
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10-15-11 | BYU v. Oregon State -3 | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
Oregon State -2.5 -120 (4* PLAY) Love Oregon State here, BYU has replaced their QB and that's not always a good thing as dual threat QB Riley Nelson takes on a real defense for the vs. time all year after facing some suspect defenses the last few weeks. BYU has been really lucky to get 3 wins in a row and they have not been as impressive as many thought. Oregon State has gotten off to a slow start, but this team has rallied behind their coach before and their defense is the main reason for this play as they are much faster than the last 2 teams BYU has faced in San Jose and Utah State. Oregon State has come up with 5 turnovers in their win vs. Arizona last week. Freshmen Scott Crichton looks like the real deal he's #1 in tackles for loss in the Pac 12 and has 3 sacks on the year. Lastly this is a revenge spot for Oregon State as they lost in 2009 int he Las Vegas Bowl. There are still players on the Beavers who remember that game and will use it for motivation. The passing game the last few weeks has improved dramatically with Sean Mannion. I also believe he'll take care of the ball and Oregon State has forced 8 turnovers the last 2 games so they are turning into the defense they thought they had. Offensive weapons are there to give BYU problems with electrifying James Rodgers.
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10-15-11 | Buffalo +21 v. Temple | 0-34 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
Buffalo +21.5 -120 (3.5* play) We know Temple by now they are an aggressive defense that forces turnovers and a team without a QB or passing game but elite running game and great offensive line. The only way they can cover a spread like this is by forcing turnovers, but Buffalo has only turned the ball over 4 times all year. They were -8 turnover margin last year and sit at +3 this year and they've faced some good teams like Pitt, CT, and Tennessee already and they were in the Pitt game for a while and then they just knocked off Ohio on their home turf a week ago. The same Ohio team that beat Temple last year. Buffalo has a balanced attack, but they will run the ball more which keeps that clock ticking. Branden Oliver is averaging 113.2 yards per game on the ground right behind Temple's NFL prospect Bernard Pierce 115.3. The difference is Buffalo has a QB that can throw the ball with over 1200 yards this year. At the end of the day there are not enough possession for Temple to cover this spread and Buffalo is not as bad as their 42-0 loss to Temple last year.
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10-15-11 | Michigan v. Michigan State -2 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
Mich St -2 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Michigan again off to a fast start and now getting Top 10 considerations? I think that's a joke, but here they are now facing their in state rival on the road. Michigan is a classic team that dominates out of conference but in conference they struggle 5-23 ATS in their last 28 conf games. They are also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team and this line suggests they'd be favorites on a neutral field which I feel is a joke considering how well Mich State's defense has played. Mich State was +160 yards last year at Michigan and they foced Robinson into 3 interceptions that's going to be the key right there. Ya Mich State lost to Notre Dame and Michigan beat them, but Michigan had no business beating Notre Dame and really they were down double digits last week to an under rated Northwestern team. Denard Robinson had his way last week through the air but again he throws way too many turnovers and too many jump balls that he's gotten lucky with especially against Notre Dame. Robinson 9 interceptions on the year are among the worst in the nation and if he tries to take off and run Mich State is solid against the run ranked #3 nationally and they are tested a bit holding a very good Notre Dame running game to only 114 yards. Greg Jones is not a Spartan LB he's off playing in the NFL, but Mich St recruits well especially at LB and their defensive line will allow them to roam free. The standard run game won't work vs. Mich St not with Jerel Worthy anchoring a very good Dline. Now Michigan has been great in the red zone 22 of their 28 RZ tries have been TD's, but Michigan State has only allowed 3 TD in the red zone all year so they can force Michigan into field goal situations meanwhile I'm not sold on Michigan's alleged improved defense. For one they have gotten lucky forcing 12 fumbles. Well Mich State takes care of the ball just 2 fumbles and only 4 total turnovers on the year so you can bet they will win the turnover battle on Saturday. Next Michigan has 11 sacks, but Mich State has allowed just 5 on the year. Kirk Cousins is a very composed QB and experienced vs. Michigan. Dan Persa just threw for 336 yards and Nwestern running game was able elude tackles and get into the end zone. Mich State with an extra week to prepare should be able to get the running game going last year Edwin Baker had 22 carries and 147 yards and he's still there last I checked so is Le'Veon Bell who had 7 carries and 78 yards. Michigan's run defense stats look good but they haven't faced any teams that can run beside San Diego State and Notre Dame which had Wood and Hillman both over 100 yards and 6 yards per carry combined.
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10-14-11 | Hawaii -5 v. San Jose State | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Hawaii -5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) This line has moved a little weird and normally I'd have to buy into a home dog in a national spot light playing a team traveling far for the game, but Hawaii comes into this game coming off a break. They have had extra time to prepare and with New Mexico State on deck there is no doubt in my mind they were not looking ahead at their schedule. The line is just 5 points because the last few match ups here have been decided by a TD, but Hawaii has not had a week off to plan. Also San Jose has looked good vs. BYU, UCLA, and Nevada, but all three of those teams don't throw the ball like Hawaii. Last time San Jose played a passing team they lost 57-3. The main issue here is San Jose does not get pressure they have just 3 sacks on the season. Hawaii was able to get a little more healthy on the offensive line that should allow Bryant Moniz time to throw. SJSU is -2 in turnover margin while Hawaii is +1 as Moniz takes care of the ball just 1 interception. Also SJSU is not scoring in the red zone, they have 18 trips with just 7 TD's and 6 FG's. Hawaii has been better on defense in years past and are allowing opponents to convert 37% of the time on 3rd downs which is about where the inconsistent SJSU is converting 38% of their opportunities. That's the difference in the game and the reason I like Hawaii here. Hawaii is 50% on 3rd down for the year and SJSU has allowed opponents to convert on 3rd downs 54% in their last 2 games. SJSU does not have the depth at RB to hold onto the ball nor do they have a consistent offense to keep up with Hawaii who is scoring 37.2 ppg while SJSU is allowing 31. Hawaii also has 19 sacks and are ranked 27th in total defense. That should be enough to give San Jose some issues especially with extra prep.
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10-13-11 | San Diego State +7 v. Air Force | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
San Diego St +7.5 -115 buy 1/2 (4.5* NCAAF POD) SDST +250 1* BONUS Both teams on a short week and that normally means trouble for a team going up against the triple option, but the Aztecs are in Air Force division they are used to the triple option and more importantly they won at Army facing the triple option already this season which was a nice warm up to this game. First of all Air Force is really banged up with the possibility of 5 starters on defense missing this game they are already last in the nation in run defense and they gave up 9.2 yards per carry to Notre Dame and Ronnie Hillman ran for 191 yards vs. them last year. I think both teams come out and run the ball this will shorten the clock and that means a closer game. To me this game also comes down to turnovers and the Aztecs have 10 forced fumbles while the Falcons have -4 turnover margin they have the inability to force turnovers 10 less than the Aztecs and they continue to have problems fumbling the ball. They may run all over San Diego State and allow over 50% 3rd down conversions, but we have seen them do that before and still stay within a TD. I don't think Air Force is the team to blow any team out the way they hold onto the ball. They'd have to be nearly perfect in the red zone and they just haven't been this year. Their red Zone offense is 13 for 18 and I expect them to get stopped for FG like they did when they played TCU as they had 4 FG and 1 TD. On the other side San Diego State has a balanced attack and they have faced a much stronger schedule this year playing vs. Michigan in non conference while Air Force has mixed it up with Tenn St and South Dakota where they gave up nearly 400 yards to each team and over 4 yards per carry. Bottom line the under dog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in the match up and Air Force is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
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10-10-11 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -6.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
Lions -6.6 (4.4* NFL POD) This seems like a lot of points for an unproven Lions team. However, I'm buying in they've had 3 of their 4 games on the road and they've shown they can come back from any defecit, and they have made timely turnovers and put major pressure on QB's. IF they can stop the run early this game is going to be a disaster for Jay Cutler. Lions also get Nick Fairley to make his debut on an already deep defensive line that should help improve the run defense as well as get more pressure on Cutler which won't turn into anything positive. It's been a long time since Monday night game and the Lions are pointing to this game to show they are for real. I believe it's the reason they came out flat against the Cowboys before recovering and showing their true talent in the 2nd half. I don't care that they can't run the ball the Bears on the road are a different team than they are at home especially defensively as they'll be on a fast carpet rather than the torn up field of Chicago. Bears are 31st in total defense and they've been equally as bad vs. the run and pass. Look for the Lions not to mess around early in this game and for them to get up early. They are 7th in points allowed and the Bears have been ineffective in the red zone. Lions also have double revenge going here they lost twice including 24-20 at home but that was with Drew Stanton at QB and Cutler throwing 21-26 for a TD and 0 interceptions. I think Cutler will have a few mistakes tonight that will help cover our TD spread on Monday night leading to the Lions 5-0 start!
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10-09-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Houston Texans -4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
Texans -4 -115 (4* Early Bird Special) Ok enough is enough with this line movement continuing to come down. Raiders are not going to win one for the gipper I just don't buy into Al Davis' passing and the Raiders playing harder. This is not college football it's the NFL and one thing is sure the Raiders can't win out of their division especially on the road. Yes, Houston is without Andre Johnson, but this is a team that runs more than they pass any how. I look for the Texans to be able to run all over the Raiders as they had 249 rushing yards on the road vs. the RAiders a year ago in the 31-24 win in Oakland. Matt Schaub will get his chances in the passing game they still have weapons including Owen Daniels. On the other side the Texans are quietly playing great defense. They are tough in the red zone ranking 4th in scoring defense and that was after the Saints put up 40 points on them on the road. I expect this defense to play well vs. Oakland and for Jason Campbell to make some mistakes. Raiders is defense is last in the league in total defense and they struggled on offense vs. a Patriots team giving up a lot of yards and points. They have to go on the road with the distraction of Al Davis and I expect them to lose by a TD to a Texans team that is really good up front on both sides of the football where these games are won.
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10-09-11 | Cincinnati Bengals -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show |
Bengals -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Yes I'm backing the Bengals on our play of the day once again. They've shown they can put points up on the road and as bad as Andy Dalton was last week int he 1st half he's a cool customer coming back in the 2nd half with 11/16 in leading his team back vs. the Bills. The Bengals have the #1 total defense and that defense is for real they are 7th in run defense and they'll have to keep Maurice Jones Drew in check in force the rookie Blaine Gabbert to beat them. Gabbert has not impressed me and he goes up against rookie Dalton who just has more weapons in the passing game with Greshem and Green. That was what we saw in the 2nd half and I think it continues on Sunday here. The 3rd option of Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell have potential too. Jaguars just do not have enough offense in this game and the Bengals should win this game as the Jaguars come off a game where they gave up 500+ yards to the Saints. Look for the Bengals to get their first interception today and for the running game to continue it's success as well.
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10-08-11 | TCU v. San Diego State +6 | 27-14 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
SDSU +4.5 (4.5* NCAAF LNF) San Diego State surprised TCU a bit in the 4th quarter I think last year as they lost 40-35 on the road and now SDSU gets revenge after having an extra week to prepare. They'll do all of this during their recruiting week which is a big deal to attract talented high school players. But more imporantly I think they can win this game out right as TCU just is not the same defense it was in the last few years. SMU put up 40 points on them and they gave up 350+ yards through the air and they are also giving up chunks on the ground as they gave up 6, 10+ yard carries to Zach Line a week ago. Ronnie Hillman is considered by some to be one of the best running backs in the country and he'll get his chance to prove it. Ryan Lindley the QB does not have the WR weapons of a year ago but he's still putting up a balanced attack and not turning the ball over as SDSU is +7 in turnover margin while TCU is even. SDSU is tied for the league lead in forced turnovers this year in the Mountain West with 12, so I think we could see some of the same things tonight. Lindley also has only been sacked 2 times this year and TCU's pass rush is just average. That should allow Lindley plenty of time to get first downs especially on 3rd downs where TCU is allowing 46% of 3rd down conversions.
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10-08-11 | Ohio State +11.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 43 h 32 m | Show |
Ohio State +11.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); OSU +400 (1.5* PLAY) I remember this story isn't it so similar. A team with a solid defense loses at home and then goes on the road as a double digit favorite against a one dimensional offense? That was Texas losing to Oklahoma on their way to play Nebraska as a +10 dog. The result was a winner for us and an outright Texas victory 20-13, then Texas folded. I think Ohio State can have a similar result on Saturday night. First thing first Nebraska's offense is absolutely one dimensional and Ohio State has seen very similar type of approaches from Michigan and at least Denard Robinson is a threat to throw the ball. Taylor Martinez is absolutely not a threat throwing 5 interceptions and barely completing 50% of his passes. The public is pounding Nebraska after their terrible offensive performance vs. Michigan STate, but Mich State is quietly leading the nation in total defense and Ohio State now looks to start a new QB which could have a big impact on this game. It's also not like Nebraska's defense is the same they can be beat in the secondary with 3 new starters and that should open things up a bit for the running game of Ohio State, but it will be the defense that carries this team as they are 23rd vs. the run 13th in total offense and 11th in points allowed. I don't see what Nebraska has done to warrant being a double digit favorite as they lost at Wisconsin 17-48. I know Ohio State's offense has been awful, but they get an NFL caliber tackle back this week in Mike Adams and that should help. Despite all the issues Ohio State is still +4 turnover margin and they forced a very good experienced QB in Kirk Cousins into 3 turnovers. Ohio State has allowed just 10 possessions in the red zone this year that will mean that Nebraska gets there only twice in this game yet they are double digit favorites? I don't see it in a game they will be most likely negative in turnover margin and the clock should be ticking with both teams running the ball a lot. Ohio Sate is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team, 20-7-1 ATS following a SU loss, 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 conference games. Nebraska got a nice welcome to the Big Ten last week vs. Wisconsin. Nebraska is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 10.5+ and is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of 10.5+ they don't want to play aggressively and score a ton of points when they get up they sit on that clock and that provides us nice value for a cover.
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10-08-11 | Georgia -1.5 v. Tennessee | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 42 h 30 m | Show | |
Georgia -1.5 (5* NCAAF Prime Time) I'll highlight what I"m about to go over.. First things first Tennessee is always a tough home team in conference play so I'm not under estimating them I just know Georgia is the hotter team right now and have faced a tougher schedule which I'll get into in a minute. Tennesse is one dimensional offense, they can't force TO's, they have benefited from the weak schedule and their blocking along the offensive line will finally be tested. Georgia has faced Boise, South Carolina, Miss, and Miss St while the Volunteers faced Florida and a Big East team. Stats and numbers are flawed and everyone is talking about QB Tyler Bray who has 14 TD's and 2 INT's, but Bray faces a real defense for hte first time without star WR Justin Hunter and now we will see them struggle as Georgia can get pressure and they have 8 interceptions already this year and are +2 in turnover margin while TN does not force turnovers only 1 interception. That's been the one weakness of Georgia QB Aaron Murray he throws INT's I think he escapes with his best game of the year. Georgia also has been getting to the QB as I mentioned in their last 2 games they have 9 sacks. That does not bode well as Bray is not used to feeling any type of pressure and I'd be interested to see if his inexperience shows. I'm betting it will. Georgia has held opponents to 25% on 3rd down conversions which will be a key stat in covering this spread as they are ranked 4th in the nation in pass defense and in their SEC games they are holding opposing QB's to 47.2% completion percentage. No doubt Bray is the best one they've faced, but he's also inexperienced. This is actually a big game as the SEC East is wide open with South Carolina and Florida losing last week. Georgia's defense is a real strength on this team and they have a balanced offensive attack especially since freshmen RB Isaih Crowell has rushed for more than 100 yards in 3 straight SEC games. This will be the game that Georgia's experienced offensive line looks the part. Lastly Tenn's special teams is a mess. How much of a mess they have allowed opponents to block punts in back to back games. Georgia has a real strength here in the punting and the kicking game and I expect it to help them get a big time road win in week 6.
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10-08-11 | Florida v. LSU -13 | 11-41 | Win | 100 | 38 h 59 m | Show | |
LSU -13 (2.2* PLAY) How can you not back LSU even against a very good and deeply talented Florida team. Florida is off an emotional loss and unfortunately this is not the team you follow up with after a performance like last week. They nearly got off to a 14-3 lead vs. Alabama, but we know the rest is history as Brantley got hurt and Florida couldn't manage 50 yards of total offense the rest of the game and were shut out the final 3 quarters. LSU's defense is just as good if not better and Florida is going on the road for this game, I don't think so. LSU should be able to run much like Alabama did as they averaged 5.3 ypc. Florida on the other hand have turned into a one dimensional team. Driskel takes over at QB and he threw 2 interceptions in a partial game now he goes up against the best secondary with playmakers all over the field. You can dink and dunk all you want with Demps and Rainey that will not get you anywhere against the speed of the Tigers who will cover this spread via short field position and forced turnovers turning into points.
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10-08-11 | Arizona State v. Utah +4 | 35-14 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 58 m | Show | |
Utah +4 (3.3* play) Utah had an ugly game last week vs. Washington now doubt and now they face Arizona State that's supposed to be the best, but hold up a second because Utah played right with USC on the road and despite Utah losing their QB Jordan Wynn I actually think they may be better off as they were last in the Pac 12 in total offense despite having a really good running back. Starting Jon Hays and running the spread offense again should result in more points. Utah's defense has been great and the defensive line should give Arizona some big problems on Saturday. Utah is a desperate team and they'll play like that on Saturday. The main reason for this pick though is the injuries on the Arizona State offensive line and Utah's ability to stop the run ranked 31st, and their strength up front that should get pressure at home forcing Arizona State to be one dimensional. Arizona State is giving the ball away 2 times a game and that's another spot Utah should be able to take advantage. Arizona State is the flavor of month in a wide open Pac 12 and they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite 3.5-10 points, while Utah is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 as a dog 3.5 to 10points.
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10-08-11 | Pittsburgh v. Rutgers +6.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 38 h 57 m | Show | |
Rutgers +7.5 -120 (4.5* Play) Rutgers +240 1* bonus Well Pitt has really turned around their season looking like their defense is real and Todd Graham's fast paced offense is starting to click, but now they go on the road to face a Rutgers team that is coming in under the radar. Rutgers is 18-7 ATS in their last 26 as a dog 3.5 -10 points and they look to revenge last year's 21-41 loss on the road. Rutgers always covers spreads as big dogs because they play defense, and particularly they play good run defense as they are ranked 12th in the nation and that's the strength of this Pitt team behind Ray Graham. But hold up as Pitt will be without two guards in this game that could hurt because if Rutgers can stop the run I think they win this game out right and that's a real possibility on Saturday. Rutgers is #1 int he Big East in sacks, scoring defense and turnover margin. Their only loss was on the road to a tough North Carolina team 22-24. Pitt's OL is last in the nation sacks allowed and that should be a huge edge if Rutgers can stop the run first. Pitt has been great in the red zone 20 of 21 with 16 of those 20 being TD's, but Rugers defense has only allowed 10 possessions int he red zone all year and 4 were TD's. I think they'll limit the trips for Pitt in the red zone in this game. People are looking past Rutgers defense and that could benefit us big time. Pittsburgh's struggles on defense are in the pass defense. Despite what anyone says I never bought into South Florida and their pass offense. Nobody is buying into Rutgers pass offense but they have a WR in Mohammed Sanu who is averaging 10.8 receptions a game and is one of the better players in the nation that nobody is talking about. Another sleeper is the WR that led the Big East in yards per catch and TD's for a WR in Mark Harrisson. He's been quiet early this year mainly because Rutgers has been unable to provide the protection, but at home and with Pitt on the road where they've played just once I bet he finds the end zone. Lastly there is a huge advantage when Pitt let go Dave Wannstedt Rutgers picked up three coaches in offensive coordinator Cignetti, TE and secondary coach so that should be an edge .
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10-07-11 | Boise State v. Fresno State +21.5 | 57-7 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Fresno +21 (4* Friday Night Lights)
This is not a play of the day despite it being our only college play I just do not view it in that respect. |
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10-06-11 | California v. Oregon -24 | Top | 15-43 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Oregon -23.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
I like Oregon here despite both teams having extra rest and time to prepare for each other. |
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10-03-11 | Indianapolis Colts +10.5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
Colts +10.5 (4* NFL POD) Not a huge play for us tonight, but it's the only one for me. Who are the Bucs to be laying double digit points anyway? They do not out score opponents the offense is ranked 22nd in the league and the defense is 24th. I think Curtis Painter will have a good enough night to keep his team in the game. After all this was the guy the team wanted and he's clearly more capable of running the offense than Kerry Collins. Josh Freeman is good, but he is very much like Ben Roethlisberger he waits for plays to develop and that will provide pass protection which is something they may not be able to do against Mathis and Freeney. I expect just an ugly game Freeman is the hot pick based on what they did last year and I think this line is just way too much. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games and they barely got by the Vikings, and struggled with a FAlcons team that has been terrible on the road to start the year. Colts are still believing they can make the playoffs especially since Peyton has yet to be ruled out for the year. Not saying he comes back, but this team is far from throwing in the towel which is what this line is suggesting.
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10-02-11 | Atlanta Falcons -4.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Falcons -4 -120 (4* NFL Late Fix) Seahawks have been in the red zone I think twice this year and the Falcons have got to be angry about their play on the road this is the week they fix it. They won't have to put up a ton of points to cover this spread as Seattle is not a team that can move the ball on the ground or through the air. The last 2 road games have come vs. the Bucs and the Bears which is no easy task both those defenses are better than the Seahawks. I expect the FAlcons to do a better job of protecting Matt Ryan so he can be successful. The FAlcons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following an ATS loss and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 following a game where they scored less than 15 points. Seahawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS win. This line should be a TD but because of the Falcons struggles on the road it's not we will take advantage!
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10-02-11 | Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys -1 | 34-30 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
Cowboys -1.5 (4.5* play) Everyone and their mother is buying into the Lions and I do too just not on the road as we saw last week they struggled with the Vikings who sacked Stafford 5 times. That's not good news for them this week as they have been unable to run the ball this year and the Cowboys are 2nd vs. the run and 12th vs the pass. Cowboys can concentrate on stopping the pass this week and they should have a field day getting to Stafford with the pass rush expect Demarcus Ware who is on pace for a record breaking year. Cowboys also got a little healthy last week with Terrance Newman returning and he can definitely help a secondary as we saw when he's healthy. I think the pass rush will help this defense big time vs. the high powered Lions. On the other side Tony Romo has been the leagues MVP. I know I'd catch a lot of grief for that statement but I think he's doing more with less. Last week his receivers did not know the plays and he still rallied his team to a win. We saw signs of a running game last week and Felix Jones finally showed up and I think they will rely on him in the screen game to make plays. AT the end of the day I think Romo will have more confidence in the red zone and the Lions will struggle big time to guard Jason Witten, who hasn't. Expect a big win for the Cowboys today.
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10-02-11 | Buffalo Bills v. Cincinnati Bengals +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
Bengals +3.5 buy 1/2 -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Wow, shocker right I'm not backing the Bills like the rest of the world. Guess what the Bengals defense is pretty tough, and I think the difference here is their ability to be strong up front on defense. Bengals defensive line goes about 8 deep and they are good. This is the first defense the Bills will play as they faced 23rd, 28th, and 32nd ranked total defense in the first three weeks. Bengals lost to the Bills a year ago and I think they will be playing on revenge with a shot to win in the end. Bengals are allowing just 18ppg and 88 rush yards for a total of 276.3 yards total. They'll hold the Bills to field goals instead of TD's and I expect Andy Dalton to come back with a big performance today to keep his team in the game all day long. Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog where they always play solid defense and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a dog of .5-3points. I can't really call the Bills lucky, but in reality that's what they've been the ball has bounced their way I don't expect that to take them to 4-0 today.
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10-01-11 | Ole Miss +4 v. Fresno State | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Miss +4 (4* play) Miss +150 (1* bonus) As bad as it's been this year for Miss they now face a team they can beat up on offensively. Fresno is a good team and they can certainly shock a BCS team but they are no mystery to an Ole Miss team that is desperate for a win here with some tough games upcoming. Fresno only beat an FCS opponent by 5 points at home earlier this year and have been struggling just as much. They are 11-28-1 in their last 40 as a favorite. This is a game that you normally find Fresno as the dog, but in years past they have relished that roll into victories. I think the oddsmakers are trying to be a little sneaky here and I'm not buying it for several reasons. For one Ole Miss has the same big offensive line that was said to be the best in the SEC as they did last year that ran the ball 425 yards against Freson good for 9 yard per carry average. They have played some good defensive lines early but this is a game they can get the running game going with Brandon Bolden. Actually they can probably pass the ball a bit as Fresno has not shown an ability to lock that part of their defense either. On the other side of the ball the return of Kentrell Lockett on the line has the defense playing better of late. They already have 7 interceptions and it's the fastest and most athletic inexperienced QB Derek Carr has seent his year. They held Georgia to just 3 points in the 2nd half. Lastly Miss also has the #1 punt game in kicking and returning and that will play a huge factor tonight. Ole Miss is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non conference games 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a road dog.
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10-01-11 | Alabama v. Florida +4 | 38-10 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 36 m | Show | |
Florida +4 (4* NCAAF Prime Time) Interesting match up. Alabama and Florida are very similar in this game. Alabama's defense is better than Florida, but Florida has a bit more experience at QB and a bit more speed and talent on offense than Alabama. Add in that they are home and I think we have a slightly off line. If anything it should be Alabama -2.5 or something in that neighborhood. I do not see Alabama having the offense to cover this spread as we saw them struggle early in both games vs. Arkansas and Penn State. Florida is a team that can sustain a competitive game into the 4th quarter and are capable of pulling the upset. The minds are their in the coaching staff to out smart Nick Saban that's for sure and I wonder if Florida's inexperience in the secondary can even be an issue because AJ McCarron lacks the accuracy to go deep. Alabama also lacks the pass protection for play actions to take advantage because Florida has one of the best defensive lines and also we have shown Alabama struggle a bit more than Florida has in that department. Looking at last year's battle between these two it was basically even if it were not for the fast start by Alabama that went up 24-0 and were +4 turnover in the game. Charlie Weiss pro style offense has resulted in less turnover and John Brantley is playing game manager. He probably has the most speed of any other team in the country in the backfield and at receivers so Alabama who has arguably the best defense will have their hands full with Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. AT the end of the day Alabama will try to run the ball because though Florida is 5th in the nation vs. the run they have yet to be tested. This should result in 3rd in 4's and 5's or short where Alabama will have to pass and Florida's defensive line will continue to dominate (7 sacks in 1st two SEC games). Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
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10-01-11 | Washington State v. Colorado -3 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 9 m | Show |
Colorado -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Washington State under their head man Wulff is 1-17 on the road. Colorado is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss. Colorado has played some quality opponents in Hawaii, Cal and Ohio State while Wash State did not play anyone early then they faced their first team with a pulse in San Diego State and got beat giving up over 500 yards and they were sacked 4 times. San Diego State gave up a few weaknesses that Colorado can take advantage of at home in the high altitude. 1st thing is the running game as San Diego State RB Hillman ran for 191 yards. Rodney Stewart from Colorado has the skill to spark this offense. Actually this offense has clicked behind Stewart and QB Tyler Hansen the Sr. is quietly having a quality start to the season with 1150 yards 9 TD and 1 INT vs. some quality opponents. Washington State can not get pressure and they are weak up front which should favor Colorado which will have a balanced attack in this one. Look out for one of the best receivers in the Pac 12 in Paul Richardson for Colorado who has 22 receptions 398 yards. VS. California he had 11 for 284 and has been quiet the last two weeks. I expect him to get back to that success this week. Next advantage is Washington state's weakness up front on their offensive line and it really showed against San Diego State who sacked them 6 times. Colorado is strong up front they are 10th in the nation in sacks and they have gotten 3 or more in each game. This will be an advantage late in the 2nd half I think Colorado can end some late drives. Washington St had high hopes this year behind Jeff Tuel but he got hurt in the first game and although his back up is capable he's not nearly as good and Colorado's secondary is the weakness although it's been a strength so far givin up just 283.5 yards per game 26th nationally. I think that continues the line is low because Wash St is averaging 439.67 yards per game, but Colorado is the best defense they have faced all year by a mile and it's on the road in a conference game.
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10-01-11 | Northwestern +10 v. Illinois | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 41 m | Show | |
Northwestern +10 (4.5* play) Nwestern +315 (1* bonus) Northwestern gets their star QB back which is the exact opposite of last year's match up at Wrigley Field when they started a freshmen in his first start after Persa's injury. Dan Persa last year threw for 2,581 yards 15 TD 4 INT's rushed for 519 in just 9 games and he had a nation's best 73.5% completion percentage. He may be rusty early, but it's still a huge advantage that will open up this offense a lot this week vs. a ranked team looking for revenge of last year's embarassing defeat where they just gave up too many big plays in the running game. Northwestern comes into this game with an extra week to prepare and they should be motivated to play a very physical game on defense that should keep this tight. Illinois exposed themselves last week while they have been able to get into the backfield Western Michigan turned to a quick passing game that turned in results in a 3 point loss to Illinois and I'm sure Northwestern will be looking to do the same they definitely have the talent at QB and WR to make that kind of a game plan. Illinois has lived off turnovers early and penalties from opponents in close games. When you are a heavy running team you usually do not blow opponents out and I feel the same will be the case on Saturday. Northwestern does not commit penalties and they do not turn the ball over which will keep this game close. Northwestern lost before their off week to a triple option offense in Army that took advantage. That does not worry me because it's hard to prepare for that kind of option offense when you are not used to facing it. It was a good warm up for Illinois option rushing attack and you better believe they were looking ahead to this game and that played a part for their loss vs. a very under rated Army team. Illinois is just 1-15 in their last 16 years in Big Ten openers and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team 2-14 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 3.5-10pts. Northwestern on the other hand is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road dog games and 17-5 in their last 22 as a road dog 3.5 -10 pts as they almost always stay in these type of games.
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10-01-11 | Toledo +8 v. Temple | 36-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 40 m | Show | |
Toledo +8 (3* play) We backed Temple in back to back weeks in fact we had them at +290 out right winners last week and we are 3-0 in their games this year, but this week we fade them. They come off a huge win and I think they will have a let down this week. Toledo has the 26th ranked passing attack and Temple will be tested in the secondary. Temple is coming after opposing attacks, but they have yet faced a team that can pass like Toledo which has had a tough schedule to start the year playing right with Ohio State a very similar team to Temple on the road where they lost 22-27 after leading in the 4th quarter. They also played right with Syracus before winning in regulation but a blown call on an extra point and they lose in over time. Austin Dantin led the offense on 6 scoring drives vs. Syracus and should be able to move the ball enough to score points vs. Temple. Temple's offense is still one dimensional, but they pose the best RB in the land in my opinion in Bernard Pierce. Toledo knows this team very well this is a conference game and Temple will run the ball all day Pierce got 40 carries vs. them last year and I expect in the end for it to be a close game. Toledo is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 in conference play.
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09-30-11 | Utah State +8 v. BYU | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Utah State +8 -115 (4.5* NCAAF POD)I love Utah State as this is a great exposure game for their team and players in what their head coach has said he
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09-26-11 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Cowboys -3 (4.4* NFL POD) I had the Redskins in both of their first two games, but now they go on the road and I know the injuries have been a big deal and a reason why the Cowboys are -3 favorites here instead of more, but I think the injuries are over rated at this point. Romo's injury got better not worse from how they were where he led his team on the road against the 49ers and he looked good. Romo usually turns up with a great game when people expect him to struggle. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are still out there even though Austin is now out. It appears Bryant will play and if so I think this offense won't miss Austin a bit. Jason Witten had 10 receptions and a 140 yards in the home win with Jon Kitna at QB. Redskins defense just is not the same on the road as it is at home and I think they'll struggle stopping the Cowboys and on the other side I think we can expect a nightmare performance from Grossman. Though he's looked great first few games he'll have to win this game because the Cowboys are #2 in stopping the run. Cowboy get Terrence Newman back to help their secondary and I think that will help them concentrate on TE Fred Davis.
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09-25-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Bears +4.5 (3.3* play) Bears looking for revenge. We already saw them dominate the Falcons here and the field conditions are always an issue for visiting teams. I think the Bears can get a lot of pressure on Rodgers and it's not like the Packers defense is clicking right now as they are 32nd vs. the pass. I expect Cutler to have a huge game this week as this defense is giving up 476 yards per week. This team lost to the Packers at home in the championship game but beat them during the regular season. Look for that trend to continue I think the Bears win this game.
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09-25-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 | 13-8 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Bengals -1.5 (3.3* play) Bengals are one tough team at home and they face a team in the Niners coming off a heart break loss and now they travel East to play a young exciting offense in the Bengals. Andy Dalton has yet to throw an interception on 57 attempts and he's got two young receivers in AJ Green and Jerome Simpson that look like the real deal and will clearly be the difference maker on Sunday. 49ers offense is awful barely averaging over 200 yards per game. Only reason why they are scoring points is the special teams. I think that will be under control on the road. Bengals win this game.
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09-25-11 | Miami Dolphins +3 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
Dolphins +3 -125 buy 1/2 (5.5* MAX POD) Love the Dolphins and I'd take them straight up, but when your book has them at +2.5 there is no reason not to be smart and buy the half point in my opinion. First of all this Dolphins team is much better than they have played. Starting the season playing the AFC's two best offenses in the Texans and the Patriots was never going to produce good results especially after a shortened off season. Today the Dolphins begin their season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a dog while the Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. This will be a big game for Dolphins rookie Daniel Thomas. Right now the Browns can be run on they have the 24th run defense and they faced Benson and Addai from the Bengals and Colts. Those guys are good, but they are old news and I loved what I saw from Thomas a week ago 18 carries for 107 yards. I really believe he can be the next big thing in the league. Sprinkle in Reggie Bush and I think the Dolphins should have no trouble moving the ball. Dolphins struggled at home vs. the Browns a year ago in a 13-10 defeat, but Henne threw 3 interceptions and that number will clearly go down with a balanced attack and Brandon Marshall who did not play in that game. Also the Dolphins held Hillis in check in that game 18-57 yards 3.1 ypc. Hillis really has not looked good this year and I think we will continue to see more of Hardesty, but not today. Hillis will struggle on the year he has 3.4 ypc vs. the Colts/Bengals. Dolphins run defense is better and their overall defense which is suspect when you look at the numbers is inflated because they faced the Texans and Patriots. Expect the Dolphins to really come out and make a point in this game. Their offense has looked good and their defense won't have a problem with the Browns offense led by McCoy who dinks and dunks down the field behind a passing offense ranked 25th. His 56.9% completion percentage surprises me. I love the Dolphins to win this one.
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09-24-11 | USC v. Arizona State -2.5 | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
AZ State -2.5 (4* Late Night Fix)
USC has not been an impressive 3-0 team in my opinion they got lucky at home vs. Utahand struggled on the road vs. Minnesota. AZ ST returns home after a tough road loss to a Big Ten team and I think they are more focused on the PAC12 and they'll be looking to revenge last year's loss on the road by 1 point to the Trojans. Look for Brock Osweiler and crew to get up early and score a lot of points after being held to 14 a week ago they will be anxious to get back to scoring points and they should be able to against USC. For USC this is the first test they have had all year and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following an ATS win. Oddsmaker's have over exaggerated their prior victories and in my opinion they are doing it again. |
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09-24-11 | LSU -6 v. West Virginia | Top | 47-21 | Win | 100 | 45 h 34 m | Show |
LSU -5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Don't miss out easily the game of the week and we are confident in LSU's ability to win on the road in hostile environments. This is a rematch of last years 20-14 home victory by LSU and one thing is for sure both teams are different than they are a year ago. In my opinion West Virginia has digressed with Dana Holgorsen so far as the defense just is not the same with this up tempo offense coming off the field much quicker. The defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field in this game because LSU's defense is special. LSU prepared all off season for a spread attack with a special running game and that was not for West Virginia but for Oregon and they dominated that game in a 40-27 victory. Oregon is far better than West Virginia on offense with an elite running game that LSU shut down. West Virginia can not muster any sort of a running game just 79 yards per game. LSU also shut down the prolific Miss St's rushing game last week which was very impressive. West Virginia will go to the passing game and Geno Smith was 14-29 last year vs. LSU and I don't think it will be any prettier despite how explosive the offense has looked because they've been inconsistent. This is the first time they are facing a dominant defense that can get into the backfield. LSU now has 30 tackles for loss already. They'll easily take away the running game and the offense WV is going to run is not built to beat this LSU defense which is littered with speed athleticism and next level talent including a duo in the secondary that is making many forget about Patrick Peterson in Mathieu/Claiborne. My favorite stat is West Virginia's once dominating defense they were 2nd in sacks last year and 2nd in run defense. What happened? They have 1 sack through 3 games and do not seem as dominant as years past and that's the extra time they have spent on the field that's killing them. LSU behind a physical and veteran offensive line are starting to build some rhythm behind Spencer Ware. Jarret Lee is QB this year and I think that's a huge difference. He does not turn the ball over and LSU bone head turnovers seem to be cut down. In the match up they had 3 turnovers and 12 penalties yet they salvaged a win. I'm buying into this LSU team this year I think it comes down to their match up vs. Alabama on whether or not they got to the national championship.
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09-24-11 | Ohio +4 v. Rutgers | 26-38 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 16 m | Show | |
Ohio +4.5 (3.3* play) Frank Solich has his team off to a great start while Rutgers played a game at North Carolina that was a measuring stick and lost despite being +5 in turnover margin. Now they face a very good and very consistent and pesky team out of the MAC in Ohio. Ohio has a veteran offensive line and they return a real NFL talent off an injury from a year ago in Lavon Brazill to pair along with Sr. Phil Bates allows this team to be a real scoring threat against anybody. Also Ohio will force turnovers unlike the opponents Rutgers has faced thus far. They have 8 interceptions already and have given up 10 points in their last 2 games and just dominated Marshall a week after Marshall shocked a very good Southern Miss team. Rutgers will struggle as they are not used to seeing a Pistol no huddle offense that Ohio will bring into this game. I expect them to stop the running game, but they may have issues defending the pass. On the other side of the ball I'm a bit skeptical despite having two next level WR on their roster in Sanu and Harrison I'm not buying into their QB Chas Dodd who is completing just 53.1 % of their passes. The offensive line is a huge question mark and they may even start two freshment his week. Ohio's defensive line is good enough to make an impact in this game. They held Marshall 2-12 on third downs a week ago while they converted 10 of 18 on 3rd or 4th down which impresses me considering Marshal boasts one of the best defensive lines in the MAC. Ohio is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 as a road dog and 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 following a SU win, while Rugers is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 in September and 1-9-1 ATS int heir last 11 as a favorite 3.5 to 10. Though they come off a bye I suspect this team is more focused on their Big East opener.
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09-24-11 | Temple +9 v. Maryland | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 32 m | Show | |
Temple +9 (3.3* play) Temple +290 (.5* play) Last week we won easily on Temple over Penn State as they almost ended their losing streak vs. the Nittany Lions. Both teams come into this game hoping to rebound from emotional losses as Maryland lost to West Virginia. Temple's defense has been outstanding just 284 yards allowed per game and 8ppg. They even shut down a Penn State offense that although has not been doing much is still very talented up front. Temple's very under rated and their defense is real, aggressive and fast and athletic enough to give Maryland fits. Sophmore QB O'brien has had a lot of hype, but so far he has 2 TD to 4 INT so I'm not that impressed just yet despite all the yards he's thrown for. Both teams will come out and try to establish the run which will shorten the game. Temple's massive offensive line should have an advantage vs. Marylands speed and athleticism in the power running game. Maryland has yet to face a team that likes to play physical and likes to pound the ball so this could be a different type of game for them. Maryland has been unable to get a pass rush so I expect Temple to be better than week's past in the passing game especially when they have talent at receiver and an NFL talent at TE in Evan Rodriguez. Maryland's offensive ranks have more to do with tempo and less to do with their actual talent they've had too many penalties and turnovers for me to back them or to be 9 point favorites off an emotional loss. Adrian Robinson was in the backfield vs. Penn State all game long and that should not change vs. Maryland.
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09-22-11 | North Carolina State v. Cincinnati -7.5 | Top | 14-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
[b]Cincinnati -7 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
Revenge is a beautiful thing and that |
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09-18-11 | Houston Texans -3 v. Miami Dolphins | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Texans -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 (4* play) I think this Houston team is on a mission this year and they did not show much of their offense going up 34-0 by half time vs. the Colts. This team is a balanced team that will give the Dolphins who are on short week a lot of issues as they just gave up over 500 yards vs. Brady and the Patriots. The new 3-4 defense looked good in the first week with Wade Phillips making the calls and this defense now that they picked up some players in the secondary look like they could be an asset to this team with all the talent they have up front with JJ Watt, Cushing and Mario Williams. Dolphins have not had a home field advantage and they don't deserve this on a short week I think the Texans role they are for real now that they have that defense.
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09-18-11 | Dallas Cowboys -3 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Cowboys -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) People need to get off Tony Romo's back. I liked what I heard from him he is a veteran that can forget bad performances at this point. In 4th quarter Romo over his career has 38 TD's to 18 interceptions only throwing an interception every 31 attempts in the 4th quarter so I think the story about him playing clutch is way over hyped. People forget they nearly beat one of the best teams on the road int he Jets. Romo was 23-36 342 yards and that's impressive vs. a very good Jets secondary. Dez Bryant is starting to be the clear #1 and I think he's up for a big day on Sunday. Jason Witten should cause some big match up advantages as well. For the Niners offense we haven't seen much as Ginn Jr took 2 returns back for touch downs that helped him win the game. I still don't trust Alex Smith and I think the Cowboys though they are banged up in the secondary should be able to get away with that with their pass rush as the Niners offensive line is a work in progress. They averaged just 2.7 ypc vs. the Seahawks and the Cowboys were solid at stopping the run against the Jets. Niners are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win and 6-22-3 ATS in their last 31 following a win by more than 14 points.
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09-18-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Washington Redskins -3.5 | 21-22 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Redskins -3 -115 buy 1/2 (4.5* NFL Early Bird) Love the Skins I think they area sleeper int he NFC East and they are going to give a lot of teams issues especially at home. Rex Grossman looked good against a better pass rush in the Giants than what he'll see today from Arizona who has to come west to east. Under Wisenhunt they are 4-7 with most of those victories coming with Kurt Warner. Last year they averaged 12 ppg on the road and although that will likely change with Kevin Kolb I don't think it will be as easy as it looked last week. Redskins should be able to move the ball on the Cardinals who gave up 8 plays of 20+ yards. Tim Hightower nearly broke a couple long runs and now that Grossman showed he can hit players down the field and be accurate I think that will open up things for the running game which is obviously what this team likes to do more. Cardinals gave up over 400 yards to a rookie as they could get no pass rush. Watch for the Redskins to continue there play action boot's to the TE and I'm sure they will pick on CB AJ Jefferson who was on their practice squad a year ago and an undrafted player. At the end of the day I like what I saw in Washington and they have a very good pass rush with Rookie Ryan Kerrigan alongside veteran Brian Orakpo.
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09-17-11 | Oklahoma -3.5 v. Florida State | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Oklahoma -3 -120 (4* Prime Time)
I'm not buying this notion that Oklahoma's secondary is a major weakness. They return both starters at corner including Jamell flemming that held opponents to the 8th best pass efficiency defense a year ago. Plus it's not like EJ Manuel lights it up against BCS conference opponents as he has 6 TD's to 9 interceptions. Both WR he likes to throw to are banged up Bert Reed looks like he'll play with an ankle, but Willie Haulstead (concusion) is questionable. The two new safeties both have plenty of athletic ability. The one place Florida State can beat Oklahoma in is hte running game and I'm not so sure because they only managed 93 yards against LA Monroe. Oklahoma is filled with talent up front and their weakness comes at line backer. Most teams can get past that when they have a good defensive line and Oklahoma is big on the interior and has the speed on the outside to give FSU issues. Next to the offense of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored on their first 4 possessions in last year's game on route to a 47-17 win in a game that was not even that close. Landry Jones was 30-40 for 380 yards and 4 TD's. The talent on FSU remains on the defensive line, but that's the strength of this Oklahoma defense in their offensive line that returns 4 starters. Oklahoma faced a good opponent in the first week in Tulsa and come in with an extra week of preparation and head coach Stoops knows this defense as his younger brother coaches it. I'm not going to buy in on this team struggling on the road or outside oklahoma so much I think it's just a coincidence. |
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09-17-11 | Arizona State v. Illinois -2 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
Illinois -2 (3.3* play)
This line was so screwy as Arizona State opened up as -1.5 favorites. Everyone loves this team but I thought their performance at home vs. Missouri was just subpar. They were supposed to put up points and yards on Missouri that had countless injuries. Now they go on the road to face another dual threat QB in Nathan Schelhaase as they struggled to contain James Franklin who had 319 yards passing and 84 rushing. Illinois has a more physical offensive line that could give ARizona State a lot of issues here at home. Arizona State is 8th in the Pac 12 in run defense and their rushing offense has been limited. Illinois is 8th in the nation with 283 rushing yards per game. This defense has not shown it's hand much and I think they'll bring some new blitz packages that could give Brock Osweiler some issues in his first road game in a hostile environment this weekend. I still believe Big Ten > Pac 12 and it will show today. |
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09-17-11 | Navy +17 v. South Carolina | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
Navy +17.5 -115 (3* play)
South Carolina has the talent to beat any team in the nation. Navy however rarely gets blown out and they'll give South Carolina a major test as their defense has looked awful in the first two games. We know all about Navy's triple option, but South Carolina has not faced a triple option since 2008 when Wofford lost by just 10 points 23-13. Both teams want to run the ball a lot because South Carolina just is not passing very well their QB's are 21-51 so expect a ton of running which will shorten the game. The Gamecocks just want to get out of here with a win no matter how ugly. Don't sleep on Navy's ability to keep Marcus Lattimore in check as they just held start RB Bobby Rainey from Western Kentucky to 3.9 ypc on 32 carries. Navy is 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road as a dog 10.5+ points as I said they rare get blown out. Check out Ricky Dobbs replacement in Kriss Proctor they are saying he may be even better than Dobbs. |
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09-17-11 | Miami +5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Miami OH +5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love Miami Ohio as they are coming off a bye after holding a very explosive Missouri Offense to 17 points. Mizzo then went on the road to score 30 points vs. a very fast and athletic AZ State defense. QB Franklin is a dual threat that Miami Ohio kept in line and I don't think they'll have any problem with Minnesota QB MarQueis Gray who is a little bigger, but still should have no issue as this defense is for real that led them to a MAC Championship a year ago led by CB Dayonne Nunley and LB's Wedge and Harris forming the best secondary and linebackers in the MAC. Minnesota as I said is a mess they just lost at home to New Mexico State and now there may be reason to believe they can bounce back but I don't see that reason facing a tough defense that is coming off a bye week well prepared for this very game after they lost opening weekend. Minnesota's strength is in their run defense and Miami Oh does not like to run the ball QB Zac Dysert is very good and should use his usual short passes for the running game moving the ball up and down the field. If they can finish in the red zone they should win out right. Something they could not do at Missouri, but Minnesota is no Missouri on defense. Dysert also gets his best receiver back this week as Sophmore WR Nick Harwell was suspended for hte first game. He had 64 receptions for 871 yards a year ago. Minnesota can't get the QB and that's dangerous if you give Dysert time as Minnesota was last in sacks in 2010 and so far through two games they have 0 sacks that includes against New Mexico State.. Mia OH is actually 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog and last 4 vs. the Big Ten and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing home record while Minnesota is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal. Miami Ohio's defense will keep this to a field goal game regardless. |
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09-17-11 | Penn State v. Temple +7 | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
Temple +7.5 -120 (4.5* EB)
Temple has not beaten Penn State in 70 years, but last year they had Penn State on the ropes on the road leading 13-9 in the 3rd quarter and then Bernard Pierce went down with an injury and they lost 22-13 as they were -4 turnover margin. Looking at that stat losing on the road by just 9 points with a -4 turnover margin. I'll say this team has a good opportunity to win out right at home as Penn State has looked subpar so far as they have a 1 dimensional game because the passing game is awful and if they do try to pass Temple has the athletes to get into the backfield they have 11 sacks already. This is Penn State's first road game and Temple showed the ability to run a year ago 30 carries for 159 yards they run behind a big offensive line that can get some push up front as they average 6-5 and 318 lbs. They have already rushed for 545 yards in two games between the duo of Matt Brown and Bernard Pierce. Speaking of Matt Brown he's also taking punts back for TD and that could be an issue as Penn state's punting game is an issue going into this game. Temple is not all special teams and running their QB Mike Gerardi has the skill and accuracy to make the Nittany Lions pay over the top if they stack the box as they have future NFL TE Evan Rodriguez and size on the outside in Deon Miller and SR. Rod Streater. Temple's defensive line has plenty of experience and size to disrupt the running game of Penn State. AT the end of the day this will be an ugly run first type game which I don't think has the ability to be decided by more than a TD. Lastly Temple's new coaching staff knows this Penn State team Steve Addazio and his offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator were all at Florida which beat Penn State 37-24 in the Outback Bowl. |
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09-12-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Denver Broncos -3 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Broncos -3 -120 (4.5* NFL POD) Broncos lost 59-14 last year at home in 1 of 2 games that the Raiders dominated them last year on a combined 98-37. I smell revenge here with the Broncos who were a pass happy team last year. That did not match up well when the Raiders were #2 in the league in getting to the QB and they had an elite secondary led by Nnamdi Asomugha. In the home loss Brandon Lloyd who led the league in receiving had just 3 targets as Asomugha just took him out of the game. While the Raiders safeties are solid the corners are a huge question mark with Chris Johnson (16 tackles, 2 INT) and raw rookies DeMarcus Van Dyke, and Chimdi Chekwa. This is going to have a few impacts on this game and this team this year. #1 I guarantee the Raiders will not be in the top 5 in pass defense or sacks like they were a year ago as they ranked #2 in both respectifully. Also look for Kyle Orton to test this team on the edges with speedy receivers. lastly Oakland was 29th vs. the run and the Raiders did not do anything to really change that. John Fox who takes over as the Broncos head coach is a run first type coach and I expect a much more balanced approach from the Broncos this year which should have an impact in week #1. Oakland was tops in 3rd down stops allowing just 34.8% without Asomugha this is going to change. Denver has the edge here and I think they also have the edge in the passing game which they did not a year ago.. Now how do they stop the Raiders on defense because they did give up 98 points a year ago. Enter Von Miller and immediately you improve your defense which was last in the league in sacks a year ago. I think you see him getting to Campbell early and often and playing a huge part in the Broncos win. Denver has won 16 of their last 22 week 1 games and are 11-0 in their last 11 home openers. Oakland has lost 11 straight on Monday night. Lastly Kevin Boss replaced Zach Miller and though Boss was productive he's a new player and not as good as Miller. It will take time for Boss and Campbell to get on the same page.
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09-11-11 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Redskins +3 -115 (3* play) I like the Skins the Giants are banged up they only won by 3 late in the year here and I think the Redskins have done more to improve than the Giants. The key I think is Eli Manning who has two dangerous receivers, but the loss of Kevin Boss who averaged 17 yards per catch in 6 games vs. the Redskins while the Giants went 6-0 is a key. Rex Grossman showed a year ago he can move the ball and the Giants don't have several players that troubled him a year ago and now they start a rookie at MLB too. Skins should be able to move the ball their running game with Tim Hightower and Roy Helu should be much improved as they both understand the zone blocking scheme Shanahan runs.
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09-11-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. St Louis Rams +4.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
Rams +4.5 (3.3* play) The Dream team was the story of the short off season as Vince Young put it but, but I'm not so confident in a team that's offensive line is a huge huge problem. Most teams start building a team up front and it's nice that the Eagles have the skill positions, but STeve Spagnola's pressure defense that brings zone blitzes gives Michael Vick issues and he was sacked once every 10 drop backs a year ago. I was not convinced with Vick down the stretch last year when he struggled. Rams got better bringing in Sims Walker, but they kept 4 TE's and 2 FB's expect them to take the talented secondary out of this game with 1 WR sets and pounding the ball and operating off play action fakes. Finally the Rams 7th in league with 43 sacks and the Eagles gave up 49 a year ago among the worst in the league.
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09-11-11 | Atlanta Falcons -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
Falcons -1.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Two of the best teams from a year ago and I think it says a lot that the Falcons have moved to slight favorites here. Bears have disgruntled players two key players want a better contract in Forte and Briggs and while it won't have a huge impact they still won't be as hungry on Sunday's. Bottom line though the reason I'm on the Falcons so large is their offense and defense has improved for 2011. No question about it they were +52 yards compared to the Bears offense and they add Julio Jones who will be able to stretch the field a bit and remove the double team on Rhoddy White. I'm excited to see what this offense can do against a very good defense on the road. Falcons put up 200 points on the road a year ago and went 6-2 so I'm confident they should have no trouble scoring especially behind a returned offensive line which has been the key to the success of Ryan over the past 3 years. Too bad Cutler can not say the same. Bears offensive line is a mess they have a new center and Cutler was sacked an NFL worst 52 times a year ago. Now the Falcons added Ray Edwards from the Vikings to go on the other side of John Abraham and this pass rush is going to be one of the best in the league. There are also whispers that the Bears are not happy that Roy Williams is getting playing time and that could result in players quitting on a team. Overall I do not like the attitude on the Bears side vs. what is going on with Matt Ryant and the Falcons. I think Falcons role by a touch down.
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09-10-11 | Utah +9 v. USC | Top | 14-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
Utah +9 (5* NCAAF POD) Utah 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 as a road dog and USC is 3-9 ATS after a straight up win which I was just not impressed. USC was held to 2.4 yards per carry which was not surprising because this offensive line is super thin they lost 5 veterans in the off season. Utah's defensive line is a real strength and they should dominate USC in the trenches, tackle Star Lotolelei and Shelby/Kruger on the outside getting pressure with the line backers behind them who play hard this defense should be able to keep their team in the game. USC does have Matt Barkley and Robert Woods who had 17 receptions a week ago, but they were scoreless in the 2nd half vs. Minnesota and were lucky to hold onto the game vs. the Gophers. Utah is heading into their first Pac -12 game and there is no doubt they are pointing to this game and it certainly showed vs. Montana State which their poor play I feel has a lot to do with this line that continues to come down towards to a touchdown. Utah did not show a lot I don't care what anyone says and they did that on purpose. Jordan Wynn is capable of opening things up and I think Norm Chow the old offensive coordinator for USC under Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert will allow him to on Saturday night. Utah still rushed the ball 38 times for 191 yards and the name most will need to remember after this game is John White IV as he is a real star and has real speed. The Juco transfer had a 150 yards rushing a week ago. USC was 109th in the nation in pass defense and have all 4 starters back which is not necessarily a good thing. Minnesota's two QB's although not efficient were 14-25 for 192 yards. This defense struggles to close games and does wear down and struggle on 3rd down defense and red zone defense and that's never a good thing when you are favored at home by more than a TD.
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09-10-11 | BYU +7 v. Texas | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
BYU +7.5 -120 3.5* PLAY We were winners on Texas a week ago, but today I'm fading them at home vs. BYU. First of all Texas though they won 34-9 were not real efficient vs. a weak Rice defense that is perennially among the worst in the league. Texas OL did not get any push on Rice and the defensive line had no sacks and just 3 tackles for loss. Past success of Texas has been led by a strong offensive and defensive front and this team does not look like it has that this year. Jake Heaps is better than the Texas QB Gilbert who was just 13-23 a week ago. It's obvious Texas is trying to win by running the ball and defense and that's not going to cover a TD spread as a favorite vs. a team with a very under rated defensive line. BYU gave Ole Miss who has probably a top 3 SEC offensive line all kinds of fits as they rushed for just 64 yards. BYU dominated their offense and got the win late. I expect them to be competitive and start living up to the hype many had for them pre season.
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09-10-11 | Houston -21.5 v. North Texas | 48-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Houston -21 buy 1/2 (3* play) Smaller play, but I'm confident Houston's offense which has plenty of experienced veterans with skill will easily outscore North Texas which did not score a single TD a week ago on offense as they scored on fumble recoveries and a late safety. They are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 non conference games and though they have a real NFL talent at running back in Lance Dunbar he could not run at all last week and the reason is the offensive line that returned just 2 starters. Houston should be able to do all they want on the ground and through the air vs. North Texas and there just is not enough offense on North Texas side to compete. Keep an eye on the backs Beal and Simms as they'll combine for a nice running day as Florida international had over 5.2 ypc a week ago. Houston's defense isn't as bad as advertised with Brown 3.5 tackles for loss and McGaw 16 tackles a week ago.
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09-10-11 | Southern Mississippi v. Marshall +7.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
Marshall +7.5 (4* play) Marshall's defensive line is extremely under rated after what I saw from Vin Curry and the rest as West Virginia had troubles blocking them all day long. Geno Smith was lucky multiple times to escape and make some plays and I do not think Austin Davis behind a rebuilt offensive line will have that same luck as he's behind 4 new starters along the line and that was the reason they struggled to finish drives a week ago. Austin Davis was just 16/29 for 164 yards 18 yds rushing vs. Marshall last year despite winning 41-16. Now the game is in Marshall's back yard and the pass rush of Marshall should be the difference in the game. They held WV to 42 yards and a 1.6 yards per carry average. The weather is supposed to be sloppy so I think that will favor Marshal and the strength of their defensive line which will control the game. Marshall does start a true freshmen Rakeem Cato, but he has tremendous leadership qualities and does not get rattled and does not turn the ball over he's 15-21 and a 115 yards in a very vanilla offense. Coaches have said they will open things up a bit this week. Marshall is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 as a home dog.
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09-10-11 | Oregon State v. Wisconsin -20.5 | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -20 (3.3* Early Bird Special) First of all Oreg State gave up 367 yards at home to Sacramento State last week and lost 28-29. Now they go on the road to play a Wisconsin team that clicked in their debut vs. UNLV and they have to do it with 2 days less rest and at 9am body clock time as they travel across the country. The last time Oregon State did that they lost 63-27 at Louisville in 2005. The last time they faced a Big Ten school they lost 45-14 to Penn State. Add in the fact this team has plenty of injuries that are not helping them including electrifying James Rodgers and possible All American TE Joe Hahuni and now Malcolm Agnew the bright spot from last week's loss is doubtful with an injury to his hamstring. On defense they lose a pair of tackles which will weaken the defensive line vs. one of the best running teams in the country behind Monte Ball and James White as well as dual threat QB Russel Wilson who plays behind an offensive line averaging 6-4.5 and 320lbs. Wisconsin's offensive coordinator has an idea of what Oregon State likes to do he and Oregon State's head coach Mike Riley are good friends I'm sure he'll share that with the defense that will match up much better than they did a week ago vs. UNLV running the pistol, something they are not used to seeing. Wisconsin has said they will be a 4-3 base blitz aggressive team. That's the team I do not mind laying this kind of points at home with against an Oregon State team that can not even decide on a QB as both will play. Oregon State is 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games in September and I expect them to make some upsets throughout the season this just is not one of them with Wisconsin averaging 57.7 ppg in their last 6 home games.
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09-08-11 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Green Bay Packers | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Saints/packers Over 47.5 (4.4* NFL POD); Saints +5 (3* play) I got to say that with the short pre season with teams getting in late it will have more of an impact on the defense. As always the offense knows where the ball is going the defense does not. Yes the Packer were ranked 2nd in points allowed and yes they were 5th in sacks, but that was last year. Sometimes returning the same players in this league does not guarantee you results in a new year. The Saints have been said to have a very organized off season and I love their three headed monster in the backfield with Sproles, Ingram and Thomas to help Brees out with balance which they will have. Brees also has a electrifying TE in his own Jimmy Graham who will out play Jermicah Finley tonight shocking everyone as these two teams go back and forth. The game will end up getting decided by a field goal or 4 points on a touchdown to win the game in my opinion. Saints put up 51 points in 2008 on this team and though it
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09-08-11 | Arizona +14 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Arizona +14 4.5* ncaaf pod
This one has all the talent and excitement you would want on a Thursday night game. |
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09-04-11 | SMU +15.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 14-46 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
4** NCAAF POD
smu +15.5 (4* NCAAF POD) This is a much under rated SMU squad that's been to back to back bowl games and returns a ton of talent including QB Kyle Padron and C-USA leading rusher Zach Line. Sure Texas A&M is loaded with talent with Tannenhill and Fuller, but the defense lost their two best players. I think SMU can stay within striking distance and their defense is very under rated. |
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09-03-11 | Rice v. Texas -24.5 | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Texas -24 -120 buy hook (3.5* play- 1-5SCALE) It is essential that Texas gets out to a fast start and though Rice does have some talent in dual-threat Taylor McHargue, Texas is no longer going to be looking past their opening game. They only won 34-17 last year and off a 5-7 season this Texas team is ready to make some statements. Before scoring just 34 points in last year's meeting Texas had scored 50+ points in 4 straight meetings. I think Gilbert will have his way this is a new offense as Texas brings over Boise State offensive coordinator to lead this offense. You will see a lot of movement and motions before the snap to take advantage of match ups and that is just bad news for Rice which perennially has one of the nation's weakest defenses. A year ago they gave up 449 yards 6.4 yards per play and 38.5 points per game. That's against C-USA teams mainly so playing a team like Texas with all the talent should be a nightmare. I also like that Texas went out and got Manny Diaz from Miss State to be the defensive coordinator and I think his aggressive style will give Rice dual threat QB a lot of issues leading to turnovers and points. Mack Brown has stated countless times nobody is safe at their position really challenging his players and I think it will work with all the competition and talent on this team everyone wants to play up to their potential and it'll look easy on Saturday night. Get pumped up to see Jaxon Shipley WR yes younger brother of Jordan and freshmen tailback Malcolm Brown and others that will be the future of the program.
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09-03-11 | Oregon v. LSU +3.5 | 27-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
LSU +3.5 (3.3* Play) All the hype surrounding the loss of Jordan Jefferson is over rated and the Ducks now losing players to suspensions as well including all american corner back Cliff Harris which basically washes out WR Russel Shephard's suspension. Randle in my opinion is the better WR anyhow at 6-4. I have more confidence in Jarret Lee than most as he does have experience and LSU has 7 starters back on defense that was 16th in the nation on 3rd down conversion defense 35%. They have extremely fast athletic guys all over especially at corner back despite the loss of Patrick Peterson Morris Claiborne is going to be an All American at corner. Why LSU might win.. Oregon is not used to playing games this competitive this early in the season the last time was vs. Boise on the road where they scored just 8 points. When teams have time to prepare for this fast paced offense the Ducks struggle. The last 3 times opponents have had time to prepare were the Rose Bowl in 2009, the National Championship in 2010, and opener in 2009, we throw the opener of 2010 out because they faced New Mexico. IN those three games Oregon's powerful offense scored 8, 17, and 17 points. They face a very good defense in LSU that has the recipe to stop them. This is also a team that was tied with Auburn at Auburn with 6 minutes to play at 17-17 so I expect big things from them tonight in Cowboys Stadium where they will have more fans.
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09-03-11 | Boise State v. Georgia +3 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Georgia +3 -102 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I'll get to it right off the bat. Boise State has weaknesses this year. The right side of the offensive line (blind side) features two new sophmore starters. The key to disrupting Kellen Moore is pressure. Georgia also has a huge advantage in the secondary as they are deep and strong and the front 7 should be much better this year. Back to the secondary they go up against a Boise group that lost Titus Young and Austin Pettis who combined for more than 400 receptions and more almost 5,000 receiving yards 64 TD's in their careers. Georgia should be able to take advantage with their defense in this game especially if their athleticism up front gives Boise issues. Also Boise has inexperience in their secondary. Aarron Murray is ready after 24 TD's and just 8 interceptions a year ago with 61% completion rate. If Georgia can run the ball too they win this game but Boise is very strong against the run though they gave up 269 to Nevada and 250 to Utah State down the stretch so they can be run on and Georgia's offensive line is much bigger than the Dline of Boise... Look for this to be a key in the 2nd half. Lastly Georgia has the best special teams in the nation and it can be a huge advantage in what I think will be a lower than expected scoring game. They feature the best kicker in Blair Walsh and Georgia was also 19th in turnover margin something that led Boise to winning at Virginia Tech a year ago 33-30. Boise was really lucky to win that game and I expect Georgia to be a little more ready knowing how big this game is. Note Boise is 0-4 vs. the SEC. Their non-conference schedule is still weak looking back at previous 3 years and all the success. I mean they had Vtech and Oregon state out of the ACC and the Pac 10 and Oregon the year before, but overall those conferences are not the SEC. Boise always has a weak schedule we are just stating the fact and I think Boise will not be as good as last year's team with the 3 glarring weaknesses on the blind side of offensive line, the inexperience wide receivers (good Georgia secondary), and the inexperience in Boise's secondary (Aarron Murray accurate passer can take advantage).
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09-03-11 | Indiana -5.5 v. Ball State | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Indiana -5.5 (4* NCAAF OE play) This in state rivalry will be played at lUcas Oil Stadium and on turf. That's bad news for Ball State that will have to cover a solid group of receivers from Indiana led by Demarlo Belcher who is big and has good hands. Indiana has some seniors that remember the 2008 loss 42-20 to Ball State and will look to revenge that loss and I think they will. That was a good Ball State team that went 12-0. Both these teams are rebuilding and have new coaches. Indiana's Kevin Wilson and his team sounds like they are going to be more aggressive on defense and they have the players talking with confidence. Indiana has won 8 of their last 9 opening games and they have only lost two games vs. the MAC in the last 33 years. Their offensive line should be the difference as they have 3 seniors and 2 red shirt juniors. The defense switches to a 4-3 and they'll play lots of man to man which will force Ball State QB Keith Wenning to be accurate in his second year and that's something that won't happen in my opinion Wenning through 10 starts a year ago had 14 interceptions and 54.5% completion percentage. Ball State is also running a new no huddle offense and it looked awful in the spring Indiana's new look defense should take advantage and I look for them to run the ball effectively on Ball State with Matt Perez who is showing vision and power in practices for Indiana as he has "wowed coaches."
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09-03-11 | UCLA v. Houston -2.5 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Houston -2.5 (3.3* Early Bird Special) Case Keenum returns to face the team who he injured his knee against in 2011 so there will be extra motivation for Houston to avenge the loss on the road to UCLA. Houston now the home team has a lot of depth back on offense with players returning from injury and eligibility. They have a 3 headed rushing attack that they never had with Case Keenum at as they rushed for 153 yards per game last year. That should provide an advantage vs. UCLA which gave up 205.5 yards per game on the ground. UCLA also lost Rahim Moore in the secondary to the NFL Draft and that will be key as Keenum should be spreading the field and finding guys open particularly Pat Edwards and Tyron Carrier who combined for 176 receptions 2,050 yards and 13 TD's in Keenum's last full year. Look out for RB Bryce Beall coming back from 5.3 yards per carry and 870 rushing yards last year and Charles Simms who in 2009 had 698 yards 5.3 ypc average along with 70 receptions for 759 yards. He did not play last year because of eligibility. This depth is what will wear UCLA down on a hot afternoon in Texas. I just am not buying into UCLA their offense only averaged 141 yards per game last year and their strength is on the ground with Johnathan Franklin (214 att for 1,127 yards) but they'll likely be forced to pass with the way Houston can put points up on the board especially at home. Houston also has an advantage in the kick return game on special teams so expect the field to be tilted in their direction for much of the afternoon. Houston is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite.
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09-02-11 | TCU v. Baylor +4 | Top | 48-50 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
Baylor +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Baylor here. TCU dominated them 45-10 in week 3 last year so this is a big revenge game for Baylor. Robert Griffith is a dark horse for the Heismann and he returns 4 of his top 5 receivers along with an offensive line that has been building to this point. TCU on the other hand lost 26 letterman including 3 of their top 4 receivers and QB and 4 of their 5 regulars on the defensive front. Baylor did not turn the ball over against TCU last year despite the loss and Grifftith threw 67% completion rate overall last year and I expect him to be able to move the ball a little bit on a rebuilding TCU team. While they held Baylor to 99 yards rushing a year ago I think Baylor may go through the air a little bit more early in this game. Defensively I think Baylor is going to have a better year because it could not get any worse. First things first they face a sophmore QB in Casey Pachall making his first start. Now he's supposed to be better than Dalton and I believe we'll see that before the year is out, but right now I think Baylor has the advantage despite the secondary being their weak link. The old TCU assistant takes over as defensive coordinator and put in a 4-2-5 scheme. Watch out for Baptise 335 lbs commanding double teams allowing the Baylor linebackers to come up and stop runs. Baylor looked like a completely different team at home and as home dogs on revenge I can't help but back them in this spot.
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09-01-11 | Bowling Green v. Idaho -6 | Top | 32-15 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
Idaho -6 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
It will be a repeat of the Humanitarian bowl won by Idaho in 2009 the only previous match up between these too. Bowling Green was in a rebuilding year last year but they still return one of the youngest rosters in college football with 54 freshmen or red shirt freshmen and 27 sophmores or red shirt sophomores. This team last year struggled big time on defense in both stopping the run and pass. They lack size and add in that they just were not very good on special teams and this team has nothing to do but improve, but I like Idaho out of the WAC. They had a disappointing year last year and gave up a bunch of sacks (main issue) with 45 sacks to QB |
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02-06-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Packers -2.5 (5.5 Dime POD)
This game to me comes down to one thing.. Can the Steelers stop Aaron Rodgers? Forget all about the experience that the Steelers have because that is just over analyzed. These are professionals and they'll be ready regardless if they haven't played in the Super Bowl. To me seeing what Sanchez did to the Steelers int he 2nd half was a big indicator on how much trouble the Steelers will have stopping Rodgers and the dangerous receiving corp of Green Bay. Green Bay won't have to run it at all and the loss of Pouncey at Center for the Steelers is too much to over come. They don't have a shut down corner and we saw what the Patriots did to this team as well when they spread the defense out. You may not be able to run on Pitt, but you sure can pass and that's why the Packers are favored in this game because they are one of the elite passing teams in the game. Perfect field conditions will make for a fast track for Green Bay and I still am not convinced Troy Polamalou is 100%. I mean did he even play against the Jets? I don't remember. |
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01-30-11 | A F C v. N F C | 41-55 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
AFC 3.3 dime play
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