Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants -163 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Alex Wood will take the mound for Gabe Kapler's men this afternoon, while RHP JT Brubaker will get the call for the Buccos. Wood has given up just 7 earned runs over his last four starts (2.82 ERA), and the Giants won three of those four games. For the season, Wood is 8-3 with a 3.77 ERA. Brubaker has been trending in the wrong direction, as his ERA is 4.68 on the season, but 9.20 over his last three outings. And Pittsburgh has lost each of his last seven starts. Even worse: the Bucs are 9-28 (minus 14.2 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties, while San Francisco is 18-9 (but +16.7 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses, and 35-15 (+12 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite! Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, on TBS Network, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. The Red Sox were hoping to extend their 2021 dominance over their AL East rivals yesterday and things looked good for them to do so. But then with a 3-0 lead going into the eighth inning, the Boston bullpen suffered a rare meltdown and the Yanks plated four runs and stole a 4-3 victory here at Fenway. The Sox look to regroup this afternoon behind their veteran southpaw starter Martin Perez. Although the 30-year-old Venezuelan's career numbers are not all that pretty to look at, one thing Perez does have going for him today is his winning record in daytime starts. He also was the starter here on June 25 when the Red Sox beat the Yankees, 5-3, although he did not factor in the decision that day. Despite their comeback victory on Saturday, the Yanks are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Sox and 1-6 in the last seven here at Fenway. Boston is also 8-2 in its last 10 home games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. Take the Red Sox |
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07-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets -103 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Toronto Blue Jays. It would be strange for a contending team to trade away a veteran LH starter with a winning record and ERA under four runs. And it would be even stranger if that pitcher had a very good post-season resume on top of his solid regular season numbers. But that's exactly what the Tampa Bay Rays did when they shipped 41-year-old southpaw Rich Hill to the Mets for a couple of non-descript players. The pitching-thin, first-place Mets will likely be saying "thank you very much" for a while as Hill joins them and has a chance to contribute immediately. Admittedly, Hill has a history of injury issues, but he has been completely healthy in 2021, logging 19 starts covering 95 1/3 coming into this afternoon. The icing on the cake -- for today at least -- is that Hill is 27-12 (.692) in 102 day games (63 starts). Despite its victory last night, Toronto is only 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Queens while the Mets are 5-2 in their last seven inter-league home games vs. winning teams. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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07-25-21 | Padres -200 v. Marlins | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -200 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Miami Marlins. Another season, another All Star campaign for Yu Darvish. Now with his fourth MLB club, the Japanese ace is 34 years old but he is still capable of throwing some of the nastiest pitches in the game while putting up some of the best numbers. He struggled a bit right at the end of the first half but Darvish has a way of coming on strong after the All Star Break so look for some very good things from him in the coming weeks. Tonight, Darvish gets his second, second-half start and it comes in South Florida. Darvish has traditionally done his best work during the day, where he has a career 3.09 ERA in 60 starts. The Padres are 5-2 in their last seven meetings with the Marlins here in Miami, while Darvish's teams are 5-1 in his six career starts vs. the Fish. Take San Diego. |
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07-24-21 | A's -125 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Seattle Mariners. RHP Chris Bassitt lost his last outing -- 4-2 vs Cleveland -- but had won his 10 prior decision (dating back to April 12). For the season, Bassitt is 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He'll match up against Seattle's Logan Gilbert tonight. Gilbert is 0-2, with a 6.13 ERA, in his five nighttime starts this season. Meanwhile, Oakland is 20-4 behind Bassitt when installed as the favorite, including 6-0 this season as a road favorite. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -245 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, Trevor Bauer's administrative leave, and now the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw, the door has been opened again for Tony Gonsolin to show what he can do as a starter. The 27-year-old RH is once more proving himself extremely valuable as a spot starter for his team with a 2.87 ERA in eight games (seven starts). For some reason however, Gonsolin's walk rate has soared this season. But if he can get back to the control he had in 2020 (a 1.4 walk rate), Gonsolin could be an ace in the making. Gonsolin's strikeout numbers are impressive and that could serve him well tonight at home in his eighth start against the free-swinging Rockies. It will be his first start vs. Colorado in 2021 but for his career, Gonsolin has a 2.40 ERA in three games -- two starts -- vs. the the Rox covering 15 innings. Despite their win last night, the Rockies are still just 14-38 in the last 52 meetings and 17-47 in the last 64 in L.A. Take the Dodgers. |
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07-24-21 | Pirates v. Giants -250 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -250 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Kevin Gausman's 2021 campaign is the epitome of the term "breakout season." 2020 was okay for him -- 3-3 with 3.62 ERA in 12 games -- but you really don't know how good it could have been due to the shortened season. But there's no question about how good the 30-year-old RH is in 2021. Gausman leads all qualified NL starters with a 1.84 ERA in 19 starts covering just under 118 innings. Not surprisingly he also has a stellar W-L record at 9-3. And Gausman's hit rate of 5.1 per nine IP is also one of the best there is. Start number 20 will come against the 37-60 Pirates. Gausman wants some revenge for a bad beat he suffered to the Bucs. Back on May 14, Gausman threw eight strong innings in Pittsburgh, allowing just one run on five hits with 12 K's and zero BBs. But he got little help from his offense and the Giants lost the game, 3-2. The Giants are 26-9 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 as a home favorite. Take San Francisco. |
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07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners +105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. In his third season in the Majors, Japanese southpaw starter Yusei Kikuchi finally seems to be breaking out. The 30-year-old finished the first half of the season with a 6-4 record and 3.48 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 98 innings, and it all culminated with his first selection to the AL All Star roster for the M's. His second half has gotten off to a rough start, but now in his second start of the post-break season, Kikuchi gets to face an A's team he's already beaten. On May 24, Kikuchi threw six solid innings in Oakland, allowing just one run on four hits in a 4-2 Mariners victory for his second win of the 2021 season. He'll try to duplicate that tonight in his home park against a team that has really cooled off lately. The A's began the season 45-27 in their first 72 games, but since June 19, they are just 11-15 and they are also 5-10 in their last 15 vs. teams with a winning record. Despite their loss here last night, the M's are still 17-9 in their last 26 home games. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -250 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -250 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
>At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. The defending champs lost back to back heartbreakers to San Francisco on Wednesday and Thursday. The culprit in both was closer Kenley Jansen, who gave up 7 runs in the 9th innings of those two games, and blew a save opportunity in each. Tonight, the Dodgers will face an easier opponent in the Rockies, who are 9-34 on the road this season. And L.A. has dominated Colorado, with 30 wins in the last 39 meetings, and a 15-3 record over their last 18 at home in this series. Lefty David Price has been terrific this season, with a 2.02 ERA in his five starts, including 1.93 at home. He faced the Rockies five days ago in Denver, and held Colorado to just 1 run and 2 hits over four innings. Chi Chi Gonzalez will be on the mound for Colorado, and he was shellacked last week by the Dodgers, as he gave up 7 runs over 4 innings, in a 10-4 L.A. victory. Gonzalez has a 6.58 ERA in his 8 road starts this season. Take the Dodgers, and his teams are 0-4 in his four starts vs. the Dodgers since 2019. |
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07-23-21 | Rangers v. Astros -210 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Things haven't exactly worked out in the W/L category for Jake Odorizzi in his first season in Houston. The 31-year-old RHP is just 3-5 in 12 games (11 starts) covering 50 2/3 innings coming into tonight's start against the Rangers. But Odorizzi's other numbers are solid -- a 4.09 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 8.0. There is reason to believe that Odorizzi will improve his record in the second half. For his career, the veteran who spent his previous seasons with the Royals (2012), Rays (2013-2017), and Twins (2018-2020) has a losing record prior to the All Star break. But after the break, Odorizzi has a winning ledger. These two Lone Star State teams have already played each other nine times this season and so far the home team is a perfect 9-0. Finally, the Rangers offense has decided to go to sleep following the All Star Game, having plated just five runs in their last five games and being out-scored 42-5 since the break. Take the Astros. |
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07-23-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -120 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago White Sox. Despite a stellar first half that included a 7-3 record with a 2.39 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts) covering 98 innings, the Brewers' Freddy Peralta did not make the NL All Star roster -- although teammates Burnes and Woodruff did get the call. Perhaps the most impressive of all of Peralta's stats so far this season -- and maybe the biggest reason he should've been an All Star -- is his incredible hit rate of just 4.0 per nine innings (which leads the NL). That snub should give the 25-year-old RHP enough of a chip on his shoulder to ensure he keeps doing the same thing in the second half of the season -- and into what looks more and more like a Brewers post-season. Peralta has done by far his best work at home in 2021 where he is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) vs. 3-2 and 2.88 in eight road starts. The Sox hitters have never seen Peralta before and they are 8-21 in their last 29 interleague road games vs. winning teams. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. Tyler Mahle will face southpaw Wade Leblanc tonight, with the Reds looking to bounce back off one of their worst losses of the season. On Wednesday, the Mets shut them out, 7-0. But Cincinnati is a super 22-8 off a loss by 4+ runs, and 18-9 this season after scoring less than 3 runs. Meanwhile, the Cards are a horrible 4-15 when priced between +125 and +175 this season. Take Cincy. |
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07-22-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm our selection is on the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers under the total. A pair of 10-game winners will square off tonight as Walker Buehler and the Dodgers host Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants. Buehler continues to dominate his opponents but it also hasn't hurt that his opponents have been overwhelmingly bad teams lately. Buehler's three starts this month have come against the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Rockies, and four of his six June starts came against the D-Backs, Pirates, Cubs, and Rangers. Overall, eight of his last nine starts have been against teams with a losing record. So, it's not much of a surprise that the Dodgers have piled up the runs in those eight games, scoring 68 runs (8.5 runs per game). The one game of Buehler's last nine which was against a winning team was vs. these Giants on June 29, and that game finished with a 3-1 Los Angeles victory. I look for another low scoring game for Buehler in this matchup against DeSclafani, who has been one of the biggest surprises of the year so far. Like Buehler, the 31-year-old RH also has 10 wins and he has a 2.78 ERA and 0.99 WHIP to go with it in 19 starts covering 113 1/3 innings. But DeSclafani has done his best work on the road this season. In seven home starts, he has five wins while posting a 3.60 ERA but in 12 starts on the road with the same number of victories, DeSclafani's ERA is 2.33. And 13 of DeSclafani's last 16 road starts have gone 'under' the total. Meanwhile, Buehler's ERA at home is 2.31, while he is 6-0 in 10 divisional games, with a 1.64 ERA and an 0.80 WHIP. In his career here, at home, Buehler's gone 'under' the total in 29 of 41. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-21-21 | Giants +155 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 155 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles. Logan Webb will match up against Julio Urias tonight for the second time this season. In the first meeting, Webb and the Giants crushed Urias and the Dodgers, 11-6. Urias had his worst start of the season, as he gave up 7 runs, 11 hits, and 2 walks over 5 innings. And that game wasn't altogether surprising, as Urias has not had terrific success vs. the Giants in his career. He's made 11 starts, but Los Angeles is just 5-6 in those games. We'll take San Francisco and Webb as a big underdog tonight, as SF is 11-5 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) this season when priced from +125 to +175, and 24-15 vs. division foes. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -161 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Kansas City Royals. The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller this afternoon. Unfortunately, Keller has a 5.97 ERA on the season, and KC has lost each of his last seven starts. And his career ERA vs. Milwaukee is 6.97, with a WHIP of 1.64. Eric Lauer will get the ball for the Brew Crew, and his ERA over his last three starts is a sparkling 0.98. Moreover, in his daytime starts this season, his ERA is 2.08, with a 1.03 WHIP. Finally, KC is a horrid 37-72 (minus 17.1 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175, and 42-71 (minus 20.2 games on the moneyline) in the afternoon, while the Brewers are 45-19 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 or more, and 70-46 (+17 games on the moneyline) in daytime action. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-21-21 | Mets -131 v. Reds | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Cincinnati Reds. With Jacob deGrom sidelined for a while -- fortunately an MRI found no structural damage to his forearm -- the rest of the rotation has to step up. That includes veteran RH Marcus Stroman who will go to the mound this afternoon for his 20th start of the season. Stroman's record is not where he would like it to be at 6-8, but the rest of his numbers have been very solid -- a 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and career-best 9.1 strikeout rate in 103 1/3 innings. This will be just his second career start at Great American Ball Park but overall he has been solid in his career vs. Cincy (1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts). In addition to deGrom, the Mets are also without star SS Francisco Lindor, but that didn't seem to matter on Monday when they exploded for 15 runs in a wild 11-inning victory. Despite the loss on Tuesday, the Mets are 16-7 in the last 23 meetings here in Cincinnati and 5-1 in their last six road games vs. teams with winning records. Take New York. |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. Mike Budenholzer's men come into this Game 6 off wins in each of the three previous games, including an upset win on Saturday night in Phoenix. Unfortunately, Milwaukee has been consistently awful off three (or more) wins, as it's 98-166-7 ATS, including 1-9 ATS since March 24, 2021. Even worse, if the Bucks are off an upset win, and playing a rested opponent, then they're 1-20 ATS when priced from +3 to -8 points, including 0-13 ATS their last 13. That doesn't bode well for Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. tonight. And neither does the fact that .667 (or worse) teams, up 3-games-to-2 in a series, are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of more than 2 points off an upset win! The Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS their last seven off a home upset loss. Grab the points with Phoenix tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-21 | Padres -155 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Atlanta Braves. The Padres offense has exploded after the All Star Break with 41 runs over three games against the Nationals. They beat Erick Fedde, 24-8; Patrick Corbin, 10-4; but lost to Max Scherzer, 8-7, after blowing a 6-4 lead in the 8th inning. The Padres typically bounce back off of blown saves, as they're 10-3 this season (and 28-16 the last three seasons), so that bodes well for Jayce Tingler's men. Tonight, Yu Darvish will come off the injured list to make his 19th start of the season. And the Padres are a super 14-4 (+6.9 games on the moneyline) in his previous outings. Darvish went on the injured list because of hip and back ailments, but looked great in his bullpen session over the weekend. Darvish will match up against Braves hurler Touki Toussaint. The Braves are an awful 34-37 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) vs. righties. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-21 | Orioles v. Rays -186 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. The O's will welcome John Means -- their only true ace at the moment -- back to the rotation tonight. The 28-year-old southpaw has been out for over a month with a shoulder strain but has been cleared to start this game tonight. But it's a very tough assignment and Means didn't look sharp in his recent AAA rehab start so he likely will need some work before he's back to his ace-like form. The other problem of course is that, even if Means pitches well, he will be on a short leash. And if he leaves the game with a lead, it's far from safe. The Orioles have arguably the worst bullpen in the AL as their 4.94 relief ERA is second-to-last (only the Tigers have a higher number at 5.29). LH Shane McClanahan is one of several bright young pitching prospects for the Rays and he will get his 14th start of the season tonight and it will be his first career action against Baltimore. The O's are 0-4 in Means' last four starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-19-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -131 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the defending champs tonight, and the Dodgers are 5-1 in his six starts this season. For the year, Gonsolin's ERA is 2.01 in his starts, with a 1.25 WHIP. He'll match up against the Giants' Kevin Gausman, who will be making his seventh career start vs. Los Angeles. Unfortunately, Gausman's teams are 2-4 in the prior six, while his ERA in those games is an elevated 3.73. In Gausman's career, his teams have struggled on the road with him on the hill (34-59, including 12-31 (minus 16.3 games) as a road underdog priced at +150 or less). Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 5-0 in Gonsolin's career starts, when priced as a home favorite of -125 to -175, and they're 113-47 (+20.8 games on the moneyline) in their last 160 home games. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-21 | Angels v. A's -108 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Los Angeles Angels. What is left for Shohei Ohtani to do this season? The Angels' superstar has already broken the record for Major League record for home runs by a Japanese born player -- and Ohtani did it in just 81 games when Hideki Matsui needed 162 games to set the previous record (31). Then Ohtani became the first player ever to hit and pitch in the same All Star game and he's a leading candidate for the AL MVP award. But don't be surprised if Ohtani's second half numbers on the pitching side decline. In his career, Ohtani's first-half ERA is 3.37, while his second-half ERA is an ugly 9.90. This will be his 4th start at Oakland. In his first three starts, he gave up 11 runs over 12 innings (8.25 ERA). On the road this season, Ohtani's ERA is a nasty 6.46 (compared to 1.86 at home). Cole Irvin will be Ohtani's mound opponent tonight, and the A's have won six of Irvin's last seven starts. Take Oakland. |
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07-19-21 | Indians v. Astros -203 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians. The Astros are likely happy to be home after their series in Chicago against the White Sox. After winning the first game on Friday, the 'Stros proceeded to lose the next two, getting crushed in the process by a combined score of 14-1. Not to worry, Zack Greinke is available tonight in this series opener against the Indians. Greinke just keeps getting it done year after year. He didn't make the All Star team last week -- you could certainly argue that he should have -- but the RH is still putting up some pretty impressive numbers at the ripe-old age of 37. In a league-leading 19 starts, Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA in just over 115 innings. And perhaps most importantly, Greinke is a strong second-half performer. In 220 career games (201 starts) after the All Star break, Greinke is 93-54 (.633) with a 3.34 ERA. Houston is 52-17 in its last 69 games as a home favorite of -200 or more, while Cleveland is 0-5 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Houston. Take the Astros. |
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07-18-21 | Giants -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the St. Louis Cardinals. Johnny Cueto may not put up the numbers he did 10 years ago, but like the Energizer Bunny, the 35-year-old RHP just keeps going and going. Cueto hasn't had 30 starts since 2016, but with 14 at the break, he has a chance to get close this season. More important is the fact that Cueto's 4.15 ERA is by far his best number since 2018. He'll get his 15th start of the season this afternoon, and it comes against a team with which he's very familiar from his days in Cincinnati. The main reason to like Cueto and the Giants today is because of what he's done in his career when pitching in the afternoon. In 119 day starts, Cueto is 51-31 with a 2.83 ERA however in 203 nightime starts those numbers dip to 83-64 with a 3.81 ERA. That's almost a full run higher than what he's been putting up during the day. Take San Fran. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee. The Suns and Bucks have traded 2 SU/ATS wins -- each winning (and covering) the two games on their own home court. The scene now moves back to the Valley of the Sun, and that bodes well for Phoenix. As I mentioned in our analysis of Game 3, Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season at home, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg! On the road, though, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, as the Suns have a negative point spread differential of -.02, so Phoenix's home/road differential is +3.42. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 35-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.86 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's road/home point spread differential is -4.52 ppg on the road, while Phoenix's home/road point spread differential is +3.42 -- a relative difference of +7.94. That's the primary reason we are backing the Suns on Saturday night. But it also bodes well that the Suns were competitive in defeat on Wednesday. They led for much of Game 4, and only lost by six points. This season, NBA teams off SU/ATS playoff losses by six points (or less) are 14-2 ATS. Take the Suns to bounce back in Game 5. Lay the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Seattle Mariners. When you have someone like Shohei Otahni on your team basically making baseball history every time he goes out on the field, other players can get lost in the shuffle. Such is the case with the 2021 Angels and their pitching staff. Veteran RH Alex Cobb and his $15 Million contract were traded to the Angels by the Orioles in February and it's easy to forget that he's having his best season since his days with the Tampa Bay Rays. The 33-year-old is 6-3 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 13 starts covering 66 innings. This will be Cobb's third start this season against division rival Seattle and his seventh start at home and that in particular is important. In his six starts here at Angel Stadium this season, Cobb is 4-1 with a sparkling 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP however in seven road starts he is 2-2 with a dismal 6.37 ERA. The M's will start All Star LH Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a southpaw starter. Take the Halos. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-17-21 | Mets -165 v. Pirates | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -165 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Tylor Megill has yet to win his first MLB game but that hasn't stopped the hype machine regarding the 25-year-old RHP. Megill has a 3.50 ERA in four starts with the Mets and he boasts a 13.0 strikeout rate and that's no easy task for a rookie with only 18 Major League innings under his belt. He's being discussed as a possible breakout candidate in the second half and it certainly wouldn't be the first time a young Mets' rookie made a name for himself in the dog days of summer. Start number five comes against the Pirates in Pittsburgh and wouldn't it be ironic if the winless rookie was the one who got the Mets out of their current rut of having lost three of their last four to one of the worst teams in the Majors. After all, it was Megill who started the last Mets victory over the Pirates, a 4-2 win on July 10 at CitiField. The Mets have won all four of Megill's starts and despite their win last night, the Bucs are 10-20 in their last 30 as a home underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-16-21 | Mets -155 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. What does Marcus Stroman want for the second half of the season? Well, the first thing the Mets' veteran RH wants is some revenge. Stroman ended the first half with a loss to the lowly Pirates of all teams, dropping his record for the season to 6-7. Stroman's other numbers are strong as he boasts a 2.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in his 18 starts covering 98 1/3 innings. Stroman's first start of the second half will give him a chance to make amends for his loss at the hands of the 34-56 Bucs last Saturday. Stroman should be able bounce back tonight against a Pittsburgh team that's just 19-25 at home so far. In addition to Stroman's loss on Saturday, the Mets also lost to the Pirates in the first half finale on Sunday, 6-2. But they are 16-9 in their last 25 when revenging a loss vs. an opponent when they were a home favorite of at least -150 (they were -185 last Sunday). Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. We played on the Bucks in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 20-point win. But off that blowout loss, we'll take Chris Paul & Co. to bounce back on Wednesday. The Suns are a super 20-7 ATS off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if their opponent is off a SU win. Even better: over the last 31 NBA Finals, teams off losses in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points have covered 70.3% of the time away from home, including 87% if priced from +2.5 to +8.5 points. Take the Suns as a road underdog on Wednesday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to go 'under' the total. We played Game 3 under, and the total opened at 222.5. It remained between 222.5 and 220.5 throughout the 3 days of betting action until 90 minutes before game time when many books dropped the line to 220. Game 3's final score was 120-100, so it was an 'under' or a 'push' for 99+ percent of bettors. The key to Game 3 going under was the Phoenix Suns' offensive output (or lack thereof), as they scored 18 less points than they did in either Game 1 or Game 2, when they scored 118 in each of their home games. That actually bodes very well for another low-scoring game tonight. In 31 years of the NBA Finals, teams that come off a loss -- which also didn't go Over the total -- where they scored 15 (or less) points than they did two games back, greatly tend to play another low-scoring game, as their next game also didn't go Over the total 83% of the time. Even better: Game 4s of the NBA Finals have historically been very low-scoring games, and especially in competitive series (that is, series that are not being led 3-games-to-none), as those have gone 'under' 18 of 24. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the 'under' in Game 4. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Suns drew first (and second) blood in this series with back-to-back blowout wins over the Milwaukee Bucks. Of course, those two games were in the Valley of the Sun, where Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg! On the road, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, and that's the key factor for our play on the Bucks on Sunday night. The Suns have only covered the spread by 0.36 ppg on the road this season, which is 3.04 ppg less than they do at home. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 33-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.56 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's home/road point spread differential is +4.22 ppg at home, while Phoenix's road/home point spread differential is -3.04 -- a relative difference of +7.26. So, while many will overreact to the Suns' dominance on their home court, we will not. Instead, we'll look for a reversal here, in Milwaukee. And, for technical support, consider that home favorites (or PK) have covered the point spread 90% over the last 31 years in Game 3 of a Playoff series after losing Game 2, if their relative home/road point spread differential was at least 6 points better than their opponent's relative road/home point spread differential. Additionally, Milwaukee is 37-12 ATS at home off back to back losses when not favored by more than 5 points. Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's Bucks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns 'under' the total. The Suns and Bucks have played all four meetings this year 'over' the total, and they've gone 'over' in all six meetings played this year, and last. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday night, especially after the Suns scored 118 in each of the first two games of this Finals. But consider that NBA games involving teams (like Phoenix) off back to back playoff games, where they scored more than 116 in each game, have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992. Take Game 3 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-21 | Reds v. Brewers -148 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati. The Reds have taken the last two games of this 4-game series, but we will take Milwaukee to win this final game before the All Star Break. The Brewers will hand the ball to All Star Brandon Woodruff, who is 7-4 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.78 ERA. He'll match-up against Luis Castillo, who is 3-10, with a 4.81 ERA. Castillo's worst role is as an underdog, as the Reds are 1-10 his last 11 when installed as a dog. In sharp contrast, the Brewers are 21-4 as a home favorite with Woodruff. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros -142 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Framber Valdez is having a super season, as he is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. And, dating back to last season, the Astros are 11-3 in his last 14 outings. Houston's been installed as a favorite this afternoon vs. Jameson Taillon and the Yankees. And that bodes well, as New York is a wallet-busting 8-28 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and they are also 12-22 in day games. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-21 | Blue Jays -117 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays will hand the ball to veteran lefty Rich Hill this afternoon. Hill hasn't had much success vs. the Blue Jays in his career as his ERA is north of six runs (6.06), while his WHIP is 1.47. The Jays will start fellow southpaw Robbie Ray, who has a 3.30 career ERA vs. the Rays. Toronto is 20-11 in day games this season. Even better: Robbie Ray's teams are 21-13 as a road favorite when he's been on the mound, while the Rays are 4-7 their last 11 as a home dog. Take Toronto. |
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07-10-21 | Angels -113 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Seattle Mariners. This will be Patrick Sandoval's second start against Seattle this season. He struck out 10 Mariners in six innings in his first start. And it was a quality start, as he only gave up 3 runs over those six innings. But Seattle won, 9-5. Since that game, Sandoval has made four starts, and the Angels are a perfect 4-0 in those games. I look for Anaheim to win for the fifth straight time behind Sandoval tonight, as he has a 2.81 road ERA, while the Mariners' Chris Flexen's ERA vs. the Angels in his career is 6.75. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-10-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -280 | Top | 1-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to southpaw Caleb Smith tonight at Chavez Ravine. Unfortunately, Arizona has dropped his last six outings. Even worse for Smith is that it will be Walker Buehler on the mound for Los Angeles tonight. And Buehler's 8-1 this season (and 13-1 his last 14 decisions). Buehler has made 10 starts in his career vs. Arizona. The Dodgers won eight of those 10 games, and Buehler's ERA vs. Arizona is 2.47, with a WHIP of 0.87, over 58 1-3 innings. The Diamondbacks are a wallet-breaking 18-82 (minus 42.2 games on moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more), while the Dodgers are 208-62 (+56.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -200 (or more). Lay the big price with Walker Buehler. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. If you thought that the following first half numbers -- a 7-3 record, 2.23 ERA, 129 strikeouts and a 0.90 WHIP -- would make a starting pitcher a shoe-in for the All Star game, think again. Those are Freddy Peralta's numbers and the 25-year-old RHP didn't get the nod. Perhaps it's because the NL in particular is stacked this season with quality pitchers. Or perhaps (more likely) it's because three other Brewers made the cut for next Tuesday, and two of them (Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff) are starters. But whatever the reason, you can expect Peralta to come out tonight with a pretty big chip on his shoulder as he faces the Reds in his 17th start of the season. It will be Peralta's fourth start of the season vs. Cincy and the Crew is 2-1 in his previous three in which he's posted a 2.87 ERA in just under 16 innings. The Brewers are also 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. teams with a RH starter and 7-2 in their last nine vs. teams from the NL Central. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-10-21 | A's -137 v. Rangers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. James Kaprielian is a 27-year-old rookie RHP who almost nobody had heard of going into this season. But the former 1st round draft pick of the Yankees (2015) is quickly making a name for himself with the A's this season. Kaprielian is 4-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 starts covering 57 innings so far coming into tonight's start vs. Texas. Despite his limited MLB experience, Kaprielian already has two starts this season against the Rangers and he threw quality outings in both of those. In 12 innings vs. Texas, Kaprielian has allowed five runs with 12 strikeouts and just two walks. Despite their loss on Friday, the A's are still 44-22 in the last 66 meetings with the Rangers and they are also 10-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 12 road games as a favorite of at least -125. Take Oakland. |
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07-10-21 | Blue Jays +107 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. Ross Stripling is starting to come on. After his first six starts, he was 0-3, with a 7.20 ERA. But since then, he's made eight starts, and has given up just 12 earned runs and 42 baserunners over 46 innings (2.34 ERA; 0.91 WHIP). I look for Stripling to maintain his excellent form this afternoon, as his teams are 16-4 in his career in games after a start in which he gave up less than two earned runs. Even better: Stripling loves afternoon games, as his teams are 18-7 in his daytime starts (including 6-1 this year), compared to 23-26 at night. In contrast, Stripling's mound opponent, Ryan Yarbrough has had much more success under the lights (16-10), than in the daytime (8-9). Take Toronto this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-09-21 | Reds -102 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers. Of all the surprise pitching performances in the first half of the season, none is more surprising than that of Wade Miley. After wearing six different uniforms in six seasons between 2014 - 2019, Miley signed with the Reds for two years at the beginning of last season. The veteran LH proceeded to lay an egg in the short 2020 campaign, going 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA in six games (four starts). So Miley was nothing more than an afterthought heading into 2021 and for good reason. But all he's done so far is put up arguably the best first half of his career -- 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 starts. On top of that, Miley threw his first no-hitter (May 7 at Cleveland) and was a walk and error away from a perfect game. Miley spent an injury-riddled campaign in Milwaukee in 2018 and put up some of his best numbers at Miller Park (5-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 16 starts). In seven home starts that season, he was 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA so he clearly loves pitching here. He'll match up against Eric Lauer tonight. Unfortunately for Lauer, his teams are an awful 7-18 with him on the mound in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -120 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Philadelphia Phillies. No doubt, word of Chris Sale's likely second-half return to the Boston rotation has made its way around the Red Sox clubhouse. The veteran southpaw, who needed Tommy John surgery last year, is throwing and looks good. And if nothing else, this could light a fire under some of the current Boston starters who are underperforming. One such candidate is veteran RH Garrett Richards. Richards is 33-years-old and on a one-year contract and would certainly like to stick around but he's going to have to do better than his first half numbers. He gets a favorable match-up tonight against the Phillies and RH Vince Velasquez. Richards' only other start against the Phils was a gem -- seven scoreless innings -- but of course it was also seven years ago when he was a member of the Angels. Although Richards is just 4-5 this season -- his first with Boston -- the Sox are 9-8 in his starts. More importantly, Boston is 8-0 in its last eight home games. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres -134 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals. This is a great pitching matchup with the Nationals' Max Scherzer (who was snubbed by the All Star selection committee) going up against San Diego's Yu Darvish (who was selected to play in the All Star Game). We'll take Darvish and the Padres tonight, as the Padres are 9-1 in Darvish's 10 home starts this season when installed as a favorite, and 15-5 in his last 20 overall, here, at Petco. Meanwhile, Washington is a wallet-busting 10-18 as an underdog of +150 (or less). The Nationals have only faced Darvish once before, and they were shut out, 2-0, as he threw eight scoreless innings, and struck out 12. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Phoenix. We played on the Suns in Game 1 of this series, and were rewarded with a relatively easy 13-point win, 118-105. Tonight, we'll switch gears and take the road underdog, as we look for Milwaukee to level the series at 1 game apiece. Indeed, Milwaukee had the distinction in this year's Playoffs to be one of only two teams (along with the Clippers) that had a win percentage of .636 both this season, and last season. One of the things I love to do in the NBA Finals is to take these strong teams off a SU/ATS loss, provided they're not laying more than 4 points. Since 1991, they've covered 71.9% of the time. That bodes well for Mike Budenholzer's men tonight. As does the fact that Phoenix is a woeful 41-71-3 ATS as a home favorite of 2+ points off a double-digit home win, when matched up against a rested opponent. Take the Bucks as a road underdog in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -127 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. Zach Plesac hasn't pitched in an MLB game in over a month. The promising 26-year-old RH was placed on the IL at the end of May for a fractured thumb and Cleveland sure will be happy to see him back in the rotation. Plesac is a budding star and the sky seemed to be the limit going into this season after a dominating short season in 2020 in which he posted a 2.28 ERA and had an incredible 57 strikeouts against only six walks. Plesac was looking good this season before the injury and he has plenty of time to get back on track. A start against the Royals could be just what the doctor ordered for his first live action back on the big stage. Plesac is 5-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six career starts covering 34 1/3 innings vs. KC. Match-ups don't get much more one-sided than that. The Royals are 0-5 in the last five meetings with the Tribe and 17-35 in the last 52 meetings here in Cleveland. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +128 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 128 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the New York Yankees. Logan Gilbert was the 14th overall pick by the Mariners in the 2018 amateur draft and he's taken somewhat of a fast track to the Majors. The 24-year-old RH rocketed through the Minor Leagues -- his highest ERA at any level was 2.88 -- and got the call earlier this season to join the Big League club. So far, so good as Gilbert is holding his own with a 2-2 record, 4.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 4.5 K:BB ratio in nine starts covering just under 42 innings. But the most important stat so far for the youngster -- and the reason why he should stay in the Majors for now -- is the fact that when Gilbert pitches, Seattle wins. The M's are 7-2 in Gilbert's starts and are on a seven-game winning streak when he's out there. This will be his first career start against the Yanks and likewise it will be southpaw Jordan Montgomery's first-ever outing vs. the M's. Montgomery has a 5.53 ERA in eight road starts this season (vs. 2.96 in eight starts in the Bronx). Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | A's +138 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. Sean Manaea has never won a pitching award, never finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting, and never been selected to an All Star Game. This season will likely be no different. But all Manaea keeps doing is posting quality campaigns. In fact, in all but his first season (2016), the now-29-year-old southpaw has registered winning records and so far this season, it's more of the same. In 17 starts, Manaea is 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA in 97 2/3 innings and he has two complete game shutouts to his credit (although one of them was a seven-inning game). This will be Manaea's fourth start of the season against the Astros and the A's have won two of the three so far -- 6-2 on April 9 and 6-5 on May 18. For his career, Manaea is 2-2 with a microscopic 1.85 ERA in seven starts here at Minute Maid Park covering 39 innings. The A's are also 8-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Manaea's last 10 nighttime starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | Blue Jays -200 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. Two years ago as a member of the Dodgers, Hyun Jin Ryu made the NL All Star team and almost won the NL Cy Young. Last season -- his first with the Blue Jays -- Ryu again put up eye-popping numbers, and finished third in the AL Cy Young race. But he was an All Star snub, somehow left off the roster. Whether or not you think Ryu is a snub again this year is certainly more debatable as the veteran LHP finished the first half 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts. Tonight will mark Ryu's third start vs. Baltimore out of his last four trips to the mound and that's likely just fine with him as he tends to dominate the Birds whenever facing them. And when Ryu doesn't have his best stuff, his offense really shows up to bail him out. The Blue Jays have won all four of Ryu's starts vs. the O's since he joined them at the beginning of the shortened 2020 season, while the Birds' Matt Harvey (3-9, 7.34 ERA) has dropped his last eight decisions. Finally, the Blue Jays are 17-5 vs. American League pitchers with an ERA north of 5.90, while Baltimore is 13-46 vs. AL Pitchers with an ERA better than 3.70. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | Reds -138 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincy Reds over the Kansas City Royals. RHP Sonny Gray will get the start for the Reds this afternoon, and he has a super 2.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six career starts vs. the Royals. Indeed, he's won each of his last three vs. KC, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 19 innings. These two teams are going in opposite directions, as the Reds are 5-1 their last six, while the Royals have dropped 23 of their last 29. With KC a wallet-busting 15-38 when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175, as well as 2-6 in Brady Singer's daytime starts, we'll take the Reds and Gray this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Nationals v. Padres -182 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals. The Padres lost at home to Washington last night, 7-5, as Jon Lester outdueled Joe Musgrove. It lowered San Diego's home record this season to 30-16 (including 9-2 its last 11). Tonight, Padres southpaw, Ryan Weathers, will take the mound for his 10th start (and 16th appearance) of the season. For the season, Weathers has a 3-2 record, with a 2.63 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .217 against him. The Nationals are 10-14 this season vs. lefties, while the Padres have won all three of Weathers' starts as a home favorite. Washington will start either Paolo Espino or Erick Fedde. Regardless of which hurler takes the mound for the Nats, we'll take the homestanding Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -130 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the St. Louis Cardinals. Heading into this season, nobody would blame you if you said that veteran RH Johnny Cueto was on the downside of his career and unlikely to put up numbers reflective of the #2 or 3 starter that he used to be. After all, the now-35-year-old posted 1-2 record with a 5.06 ERA followed by 2-3 and 5.40 the last two seasons. But like his team -- the Giants -- Cueto is surprising just about everyone this season with a 6-4 record and 4.00 ERA in 13 starts covering 72 innings. In fact, just about all of Cueto's numbers are improved over 2019 and 2020, including a 1.8 walk rate and a 4.14 K:BB ratio. Start number 14 will come tonight against a team that Cueto is very familiar with from his time in the NL Central with the Reds. Cueto likes his home cooking as in 52 starts here at AT&T Park, he is 21-14 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in just under 320 innings. The Giants are also 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Cueto's last seven starts as a home favorite. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-06-21 | Red Sox v. Angels +103 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 103 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Boston Red Sox. This might be the best match-up in baseball this week, as it features two All Stars on the mound, with Shohei Ohtani vs. Nathan Eovaldi. We'll take Anaheim at home, as Eovaldi has a career 4.72 ERA and 1.69 WHIP vs. the Angels. He faced Anaheim in Boston earlier this season, and was hit hard in a 6-5 loss. Tonight, the key factor for me is that Ohtani will be pitching with an extra day of rest. And the Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's career when he has pitched with an extra day or two of rest. He also has a 1.73 ERA in seven home starts this season. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee. Over the last 22 seasons, the NBA's Western conference has been dominant against the Eastern conference, as its teams have won 56.46% of the games. And this season was no different, as the West went 242-208 (53.77%) vs. the East. This intriguing NBA Finals match-up will pit the #2-seeded Suns (who last made the Finals in 1993) against the #3-seeded Bucks (who last made the Finals in 1974, when they were a Western conference team). Prior to the season, I predicted the Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title. Unfortunately, their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, sustained an injury in Game 4 vs. Atlanta, so he won't be at 100%, even if he suits up for all the games. But regardless of Antetokounmpo's health, this Game 1 is a horrible situation for the Bucks. Indeed, Eastern conference teams are 0-12 straight-up, and 1-11 ATS since 2005 when playing away from home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against a Western conference foe with a better record. The closest that any of these 12 Eastern conference teams has come in Game 1 was in 2015, when Cleveland lost to Golden State by eight points, as a 6-point underdog. And the only time an Eastern conference team has covered away from home in Game 1 since 2005 was in 2018, when the Cavs lost by 10, as a 13-point underdog to the Warriors. Finally, each of these two finalists has done much better vs. the point spread at home, than on the road. The Suns have covered by 3.25 ppg at home (compared to 0.36 ppg on the road), while the Bucks have covered by 1.56 ppg at Milwaukee (compared to -2.47 ppg away from home). This is key, as NBA finalists, since 1991, have gone 9-0 SU/ATS at home in Game 1 when their home point spread differential was 1.75 ppg greater than their opponent's road point spread differential. Take the Phoenix Suns minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Dodgers -129 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Miami Marlins. Los Angeles' nine-game win streak was snapped last night, but I love it to start a new win streak this evening. Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers tonight, and he's been a model of consistency. Los Angeles has won each of his last five starts and -- importantly -- he's given up exactly one run in each of his last six starts. For the season, Gonsolin's ERA is a solid 2.77, and LA is 4-0 this year behind him when priced from -125 to -175. Moreover, LA is 95-52 its last 147 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Marlins are 5-12 as a home underdog in his starts. Take Los Angeles. |
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07-06-21 | Blue Jays -177 v. Orioles | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -177 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. Steven Matz will get the start tonight for the Blue Jays -- his first career start vs. the Orioles -- while Spenser Watkins will toe the rubber for the Birds in his first career start. Matz has done his best work away from home (i.e., away from the hitter-friendly parks in Buffalo and Dunedin) this year, as he is 6-1 on the road, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Blue Jays have done exceptionally well here at Camden Yards over the few years, as they've won eight of the last nine. Meanwhile, the Orioles have struggled against lefties, with a 9-19 record (minus 8 games on the moneyline) this season, and a 37-66 record (minus 10.4 games on the moneyline) over the last three seasons. Watkins, a 28-year-old career minor leaguer with over 600 innings, will be making his 2nd appearance in the Majors after throwing a scoreless inning against the Angels last week in his MLB debut. For AAA Norfolk this season, he had a 3.58 ERA, with a 1.12 WHIP and a 27:11 strikeout/walk ratio over 32 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, his HR/fly ball rate has been high over his last few Minor League seasons (13.33%; 20.6%), which doesn't bode well for him tonight against the homer-happy Blue Jays. Take Toronto. |
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07-05-21 | Phillies v. Cubs -135 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies. Southpaw pitcher Matt Moore burst on the MLB scene as a 22-year-old rookie with the Tampa Bay Rays 10 years ago. Moore proceeded to have three-plus very good seasons with the Rays through an injury-riddled 2014 campaign, including a 17-4 season in 2013 that got him some Cy Young votes. Unfortunately, Moore has never been able to duplicate those early years since being traded to the Giants in 2016 and he now finds himself a spot starter with the Phillies. Moore will get his fifth start of the season tonight against the Cubs and RHP Zach Davies. Davies came to the Cubs from the Padres as part of the Yu Darvish deal back in December and while not a dominating starter by anyone's measure, Davies has helped contribute this season on many occasions. The Cubs are 6-2 in Davies' home games this season and his last two teams (the Cubs and Padres) are a combined 20-9 (+8 games on the moneyline) in Davies last 29 home starts. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-05-21 | Brewers v. Mets +138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 138 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers. The red-hot Brewers come into Queens tonight for the first of three games against the Mets. The Brewers have won 11 of their last 12 games and it was the Pirates of all teams who stopped Milwaukee's winning streak at 11 games on Sunday. It may seem like a tough situation for young Tylor Megill to get his first MLB victory but there are at least a couple of reasons to like the Mets tonight. First is the fact that the home team has dominated this series lately as the hosts have taken each of the last four meetings and seven of the last nine going back to May of 2018. Second, despite Megill's ERA of 4.82, the 25-year-old rookie RHP has a solid 1.29 WHIP and has struck out almost 12 batters per nine innings, something that may serve him very well against the free-swinging Milwaukee line-up tonight. The Mets are 24-11 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 home games and 5-1 in their last six games vs. teams from the NL Central. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-04-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Texas. The Mariners continue to defy preseason expectations, as they are 44-40 on the season, and just 3 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for a wild card berth. Chris Flexen has been a big part of the M's success this season, as he is 6-3 in 14 starts, with a nice 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He's also 3-0 in his career vs. the Rangers, with a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Mike Foltynewicz has had a comparatively-disappointing campaign for Texas, as he has an ERA north of five runs (5.17), with a 1.34 WHIP. Not surprisingly, his W/L record is under water, at 2-7. And his teams are 0-3 in his three starts vs. Seattle. Finally, the Rangers are a horrid 19-59 (minus 31.3 games on the moneyline) on the road vs. division foes, and 43-89 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-04-21 | Red Sox +100 v. A's | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Oakland A's. The Red Sox's 8-game win streak was snapped last night, in extra innings, by Oakland. But with the Red Sox being installed as a slight underdog in this game, we'll take them to bounce back this afternoon. Indeed, Boston is 53-34 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and is 24-14 in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125 (while Oakland is 19-20). The Red Sox are also 35-20 vs. righties this season (while Oakland is just 27-24 vs. righties). Take Boston. |
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07-04-21 | Cubs +111 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. Despite a higher-than-expected ERA of 3.98 and having allowed a league-high 20 home runs, RHP Kyle Hendricks is leading the NL with 10 victories so far. Hendricks doesn't throw particularly hard but is an innings-eater who keeps hitters off-balance with his stuff. And he obviously gets the runs when he needs them. The Cubs' ace will get his 17th start this afternoon as he tries to prevent a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds. In fact the Cubs come into tonight having lost eight in a row so it will be up to Hendricks -- to a large extent -- to stop the bleeding. Hendricks loves these daytime affairs as he is 31-20 (.608) with a 3.13 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 78 starts under the sun covering 466 innings (while Cincy is 47-67 in day games). Today will be his first start of the season vs. the Reds. The Cubs are 8-1 in Hendricks' last nine starts going back to May 16. And they're averaging 5.5 runs per game, while batting .258, when their opponent starts a lefty. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-03-21 | Padres -150 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. While many starters begin to slow down when they get into their mid-30s, Padres veteran RHP Yu Darvish just keeps on going. Darvish is almost 35 and he's been in the league now for over 10 years but his stuff appears to be just as dominating as ever. After leading the league with eight wins in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Darvish is already 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 16 starts covering 96 innings in 2021. His strikeout numbers have not diminished either as Darvish is punching out guys at a rate of 11 per nine innings (the same rate he had in 2020). Start number 17 comes against a Phillies team that Darvish has had success against. In four career starts vs. Philly, Darvish is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in just over 25 innings. And his ERA during the day is a half-run lower than it is at night (3.04 in 59 starts vs. 3.53 in 139 night starts). The Pads are 12-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Darvish's last 14 starts as a favorite. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-02-21 | Giants -143 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Arizona. It's awfully difficult to make a case for the Diamondbacks, who are baseball's worst team. They did win, 5-3, yesterday against the Giants, but they've not won two in a row since May 10-11. And since May 11, they've gone 6-41. Southpaw Alex Wood will get the start for Gabe Kapler's Giants, and he is 6-3, with a 3.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. He's made one start already vs. Arizona (a 5-2 win), and he held the D-Backs to 2 runs over 6 innings, while striking out 7, and only allowing 5 baserunners. Tonight, Wood will face off against Zac Gallen, who made one start earlier this season against the Giants (a 10-3 loss). The Diamondbacks have dropped each of Gallen's last five starts, and are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings vs. San Francisco. Even worse: Gallen's teams are 1-8 at home in his career in full (9+ innings) games with an over/under less than 9 runs. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +116 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Tampa Bay Lightning. After being blitzed, 5-1, in Game 1 of this series (and outshot 27-19), the Canadiens took the action to Tampa Bay in Game 2, and significantly outshot them, 43-23. Unfortunately, the scoreboard didn't reflect that higher level of play, and Montreal lost, 3-1. The good news is that Montreal generally bounces back off games where they outshot their opponent, but lost, as they're 12-7 this year in those situations. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 10-12 this year following a game where it won, but was outshot by its opponent. Of course, 10-12 doesn't sound awful, but to the extent Tampa was favored to win 21 of those 22 games, it is. Montreal is 35-20 after scoring less than 2 goals in its previous game, and 12-8 when playing with double-revenge. Take the underdog Canadiens tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks. Tuesday's 110-88 loss by Milwaukee was doubly-painful, as their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, went down in a heap in the 3rd quarter. So, this will be the sternest test yet for Mike Budenholzer's Bucks, as they'll have to play tonight's critical Game 5 without the services of their superstar. But I believe they're up to the task. The good news for Budenholzer is that they've had ample experience over the last few seasons to play games without their MVP. This year, Milwaukee went 6-5 without him in the lineup. Budenholzer -- a Gregg Popovich protege -- will emphasize ball movement, and player movement, and rely on his team's "corporate knowledge," system, and talent to win out. Atlanta is a horrible 48-88-2 ATS vs. rested opponents off a 20-point (or worse) defeat, including 0-13-1 ATS on the road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points vs. .540 (or better) foes. And NBA Playoff teams have cashed 67.8% over the last 31 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 21 points, and don't have an inferior record than their opponent. Take Milwaukee tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-01-21 | Mets -161 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -161 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves destroyed the Mets, 20-2, last night. How does New York respond? Well, for starters, the Mets will send the best pitcher on the planet to the mound. Looking at RH Jacob deGrom's 0.69 ERA in 13 starts, 0.53 WHIP and 11.1 K:BB ratio, you have to wonder how he ever lost two games. He'll go back out there tonight for start number 14 against a team which he has a career 1.88 ERA. Yes, that number is pretty high compared to what deGrom has done this season, but it's still pretty impressive when you consider the firepower that the Braves have had in their lineup in recent years. Even better: deGrom has yet to allow an earned run on the road this season (in 25 innings pitched), and his teams are 37-21 (+6.2 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite with him on the mound in his career. The Braves will go with young RH Ian Anderson tonight. The 23-year-old RH has put up some solid numbers in this -- his second season. But Anderson is still several notches below the level of deGrom as are almost all MLB starters. Even with the loss last night, the Mets are still 4-2 in the last six meetings in Atlanta and 3-0 in deGrom's last three vs. the Braves. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-30-21 | Suns -102 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Los Angeles Clippers. We played on the Clippers in Game 4, as they were a big road underdog, and down 2 games in the series. Los Angeles easily won by 14, as a 6.5-point underdog (covering the spread in Game 5 by 20.5 points). They're still down now (though only by one game), but the point spread is considerably shorter. That's enough reason for me to take the road team in this close-out Game 6. Indeed, road teams up 3-games-to-2 have historically done very well in Game 6, as they're 66-40 ATS, including 32-13 ATS off an ATS loss in Game 5. Moreover, .655 (or better) teams have gone 33-15 ATS off a playoff loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points, if they were not favored by more than 1 point in the current game. Finally, the Suns are 32-14 ATS on the road when rested, off a loss, and not getting more than three points. And they're 57-31-1 ATS off a point spread loss by more than 20 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs. Take the Suns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-29-21 | Giants +136 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, the Dodgers won their fourth in a row, with a 3-2 nail-biter over the Giants. The key to the game was that the Giants were 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position. That L.A. victory closed the gap to 2.5 games in the National League West division. Tonight, the mound opponents will be Walker Buehler for the Dodgers vs. Kevin Gausman for the Giants. Pitching match-ups don't get much better than this, as Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) is having the best season for anyone not named deGrom, while Buehler ranks 15th with a 2.51 ERA. We'll take Gausman as an underdog, as the Giants are 20-13 as a dog this season (+13.3 games on the moneyline), including a perfect 5-0 when Gausman has been the starter. One of those underdog starts was here, in Chavez Ravine, back on May 30. The Giants were +155, and won 5-4, behind six shutout innings from Gausman. Buehler has also made one start here, at home vs. San Francisco this season, and the Giants won that game, 8-5, as a +171 underdog. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix leads this series three-games-to-one, even though it has been outscored 403-400 in the four games. Certainly, with just a little more good fortune, the Clippers could be tied, or even leading this series. We'll grab the points with Los Angeles, as teams down 3-games-to-1 that have actually outscored their opponent over the three previous games combined, have gone 14-7 ATS in the NBA playoffs since 1991. Even better: .600 (or better) underdogs of more than 5 points, off a loss, and down exactly two games in a playoff series, have gone 7-0 ATS away from home since 2015, and 22-7 ATS since 1993. The Clippers are 30-12 ATS away from home off a straight-up loss. Take LA + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Montreal Canadiens. The Stanley Cup finals are set and one side of the match-up is no surprise. The Lightning defeated the Isles, 1-0, in Game 7, to earn the opportunity to defend their Cup crown (and try to become just the second team to repeat since the 1997-1998 season). The other side however is a pretty big surprise. The Canadiens were as high as 50-1 underdogs (at William Hill) to win the Stanley Cup prior to the start of the playoffs, but they beat three heavily favored teams -- including a very good Knights squad in the last round -- to get to this point. There is almost no way that the Bolts are going to take them for granted. You have two goalies with tons of Stanley Cup experience and it must be said that the Habs wouldn't be here without the play of Carey Price. Having said that, you still have to give a pretty big edge to the Bolts in that department as Andrei Vasilevskiy is considered the best net minder on the planet right now. Tampa is healthy and ready to begin its title defense. The Lightning are 20-3 after scoring less than two goals in their previous game. And the favorite is also 14-3 in the last 17 meetings of these two. Take the Bolts. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-28-21 | Angels v. Yankees -150 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels snapped their five-game losing streak yesterday, with a 6-4 win over the Rays. But I look for their success to be short-lived, as they've had scant success vs. winning teams, as they're 60-97 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) their last 157. Michael King will get the start tonight for the Yankees, and he comes into this game off back-to-back starts won by the Yankees (against Kansas City and Toronto). We played on the Yankees in that 6-5 victory vs. KC, and will play on King again tonight. His mound opponent will be RHP Dylan Bundy, who has a 6.68 ERA this season, and a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts. He also is 2-6 in his career vs. New York, with a 6.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP (including an 8.05 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at Yankee Stadium). Finally, when installed as an underdog, Bundy's teams have gone 24-46 (minus 14.7 games on the moneyline) in his career. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-27-21 | Yankees -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. When the Yankees signed free agent RH pitcher Gerrit Cole at the end of 2019 to a record contract, they were hoping for some serious Cy Young/MVP type numbers. So far the New York brass and fans have not been disappointed. Cole has delivered in pinstripes and the Yankees are hoping he will continue to do so for years to come. Now if only the Yanks could add another ace or two to the rotation. In 15 starts this season, Cole is 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and league-leading 8.20 K:BB ratio. Cole is hoping for win #9 today against New York's biggest rival and, given his numbers against the Sox, he should get it. In six starts vs. Boston, Cole is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 39 strikeouts and five walks in 35 innings. The Yankees are also 8-2 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Cole's last 10 starts as a road favorite of -125 to -175. And Cole's teams, in his career, are 33-10 in that price range on the road. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a horrible 11-25 (minus 11.5 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-26-21 | A's +111 v. Giants | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the San Francisco Giants. Based on the way these two Bay Area rivals are playing, would anyone be surprised if they met in the World Series for the first time since Oakland swept the Giants four-games-to-none in 1989? Tonight's match-up features SF's southpaw, Alex Wood vs. righty Frankie Montas of the A's. We'll take the underdog A's tonight, as Oakland is 29-22 (+14 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog of +150 or less. And it's 11-2 this season on the road vs. lefty starters. Alex Wood has made three career starts vs. Oakland, but has had scant success, as he's 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. And Wood's ERA over his last four starts is a horrid 8.50, with a 1.61 WHIP. Take the underdog A's tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-26-21 | Yankees +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. Jordan Montgomery is very quietly putting together a nice season for the Yankees and that's very much appreciated by a team that could use all the pitching help it can get. Of course it doesn't hurt that the 28-year-old Montgomery is a southpaw with plenty of experience against all of the Division opponents in the AL East. And that includes tonight's opponent as Montgomery is 1-0 with a 4.13 ERA in his six career starts covering 28 1/3 innings against the Red Sox. More important is the fact that Montgomery faced the Red Sox three times last season -- his last starts vs. Boston coming into tonight -- and the Yankees are 3-0 in those games. And in Montgomery's last six starts going back to May 21, the Yankees are 6-0 and they're a perfect 9-0 in Montgomery's last nine nighttime starts. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, the Dodgers have called upon swing man Tony Gonsolin to start games for them. Last season, Gonsolin posted a 2.31 ERA in nine outings (eight starts) covering just under 47 innings and he finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. The 27-year-old RHP has been used essentially as an opener, not going more than 3 2/3 innings in any of his three starts this season so far. Start number four will come at home tonight where Gonsolin has a career 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA. That home number is more than a full run lower than Gonsolin's ERA away from Dodger Stadium (3.10). This will be Gonsolin's first career appearance vs. the Cubs. The Dodgers have won all three of Gonsolin's starts this season and they are 6-2 in his eight career starts at Dodger Stadium. RH Jake Arrieta will go for the Cubs who are 4-10 in Arrieta's last 14 starts as a road underdog. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta. The #5-seeded Hawks are trying to win their 3rd straight NBA Playoff series without home court advantage -- something which rarely happens in the chalk-heavy NBA. Atlanta won Game 1 outright, 116-113, as an 8-point road favorite. But my money is against the Hawks duplicating that feat tonight. Indeed, NBA teams, seeded #5 or worse, off back to back playoff wins, are a poor 2-34 SU and 7-29 ATS away from home as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight. Nor does the fact that Milwaukee is a reliable 28-3 SU and 23-8 ATS as a home favorite of 4 (or more) points off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. The Bucks know that they need to win tonight's game, lest they be forced to win at least 2 of 3 games on Atlanta's home court (a venue where Atlanta is 22-4 SU its last 26). Take Milwaukee minus the points in this critical Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. In Game 5, the Lightning not only ran over the Isles 8-0, but they out-shot them 42-21 as well. They should have saved some of those shots for Game 6 in New York as the Bolts only put 24 shots on net Wednesday night. Although they led the game 2-0 more than halfway through, the Lightning couldn't seal the deal and they fell in overtime, 3-2. They will put all that behind them as the Bolts hit the reset button tonight and will have plenty of fans in the stands at home for what will be the last game of the season for one of these teams. The home team is 4-2 in this series and Tampa hopes that trend continues tonight at Amalie Arena. The Bolts thrive on these next-game revenge situations as they are 9-1 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 10 when revenging a one-goal loss to an opponent. They are also 5-0 in their last five immediately following an overtime loss while the Isles are just 5-6 in their last 11 following an OT victory. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-24-21 | Golden Knights -140 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs did it again, taking a must-win Game 5 in hostile territory on Tuesday night -- but at this point that shouldn't surprise anyone. The Montreal win in Vegas puts the Canadiens one win away from one of the most improbable Cup Finals in their storied history. But if you're the Knights, this is no time to panic. They were here in Montreal just four days ago coming off a similar loss and they held the Habs to just 21 shots on goal en route to a 2-1 overtime victory. Another reason for the Knights to have confidence going into tonight is the fact that they tend to shine in these revenge situations. Vegas is 6-1 (+7 games on the moneyline) in its last seven games revenging a loss of four or more goals to an opponent. Even though Vegas lost on the scoreboard, 4-1, it actually outshot the Canadiens. And it's 9-1 this season off a loss, in which it outshot its opponent. Meanwhile the Canadiens are 8-10 (-4 games on the moneyline) in their last 18 coming off a road victory by three or more goals. They are also 5-10 in their last 15 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-24-21 | Red Sox +110 v. Rays | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. When Nick Pivetta came to Boston from Philadelphia in the latter half of last season, he wasted little time in showing the Red Sox what he could do in his new surroundings. In two 2020 starts, the 27-year-old RHP went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA before the COVID-shortened campaign came to an end. Now it's a year later, and although Pivetta isn't putting up quite the lofty numbers he did in his short 2020 stint, he has still shown his new team that he can contribute. In 14 starts covering 74 1/3 innings, Pivetta is 6-3 with a 4.36 ERA and a strikeout rate of 10.4 per nine innings. His only previous start against the Rays was in his first start of this season on April 5 when Pivetta shut out Tampa over five innings, allowing just two hits while striking out four. That start was at Fenway and so this will be Pivetta's first-ever game action at Tropicana Field. Despite their loss on Wednesday night, the Red Sox are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Rays. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-24-21 | A's -143 v. Rangers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. Chris Bassitt had one of the best campaigns of any MLB starter last season, going 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts covering 63 innings. The 32-year-old RH finished eighth in the AL Cy Young voting and those numbers clearly would have gotten him a nod to his first All-Star game -- if there had been one, however the 2020 Mid-summer Classic was cancelled. No problem if you're Bassitt -- just repeat the performance in 2021, which he seems to be doing. The ERA may be elevated over last season (3.40) but his WHIP is better (1.06) and Bassitt has a record of 7-2 and a 9.5 K rate so don't be surprised if you see him in Denver on July 13. Bassitt will go for win number eight in this afternoon affair against the Rangers. Bassitt would love nothing better than a repeat of the last time he faced Texas -- a 10-1 beatdown in 2020 in which he went six strong innings, allowing one run with eight strikeouts. The A's are 7-1 in Bassitt's last eight starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta. Before the start of the season, I published my NBA futures selection, and predicted the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title. But, for much of the season, it did not look like it would come to fruition, as the Bucks, frankly, underwhelmed. After finishing with the #1 margin of victory in each of 2019 (8.87), and 2020 (10.08), the Bucks took a major step back this season, and only outscored their opponents by 5.89 points per game. Still, that was good enough for #1 in the Eastern Conference, and #3, overall. Indeed, only the Utah Jazz (9.25) and Los Angeles Clippers (6.18) ranked ahead of the Bucks at the end of the regular season. Atlanta, meanwhile, was a distant ninth (2.32). It's true that the Bucks were unceremoniously bounced out of the playoffs the past two seasons, notwithstanding their #1 ranking in victory margin. The Toronto Raptors eliminated the Bucks in 2019, while Miami sent the Bucks packing last season. But a primary reason for Milwaukee's failures was its subpar play away from home. However, when playing in front of its home faithful, Milwaukee has actually maintained its strong regular season numbers in the playoffs. Including this season (and dating back to 2018), Milwaukee is 14-2 straight-up, and 11-5 ATS at home, and has covered the spread by an average of 5.47 ppg. This season, Milwaukee took 2 of the 3 meetings vs. Atlanta, including the only meeting here, in Milwaukee (129-115, on Jan. 24). The Hawks did defeat the Bucks, as a 5.5-point home underdog, in the most recent meeting (on April 25). But that's not necessarily a good thing as, in the NBA semi-finals or finals, revenge-minded teams have gone 13-0 ATS at home in the first game of a Playoff series, if they were not getting 4+ points. Moreover, Atlanta is a wallet-busting 46-76-1 ATS on the road if it upset its opponent in the previous meeting. Finally, the Hawks are a horrid 7-32 SU and 8-31 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to +9.5 points. Take the Bucks minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-23-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -137 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. The prospect that everyone wanted to see in a Major League uniform made his Tampa Bay debut last night. And 20-year-old IF Wander Franco did not disappoint, going two-for-four with three runs driven in, with his first Major League hit being a long ball in the 5th inning. Franco's heroics weren't enough to save the day as the Rays fell to the Red Sox in extra innings. Unfortunately, Franco couldn't go to the mound for his team last night which is what the Rays needed as their pitching let them down. They will turn to a veteran who is more than twice the age of their superstar rookie as LHP Rich Hill takes the mound tonight for the hometown Rays. Tampa is Hill's 10th MLB team and has been a huge breath of fresh air in his first season with the Rays, going 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 14 starts. Hill's teams are 11-3 (+8 games on the moneyline) in his last 14 starts vs. division opponents and the Rays are 5-0 in Hill's last five starts vs. AL East clubs. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-23-21 | Royals v. Yankees -167 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals. The pitching matchup in the Bronx tonight will feature righty Michael King for New York, and lefty Danny Duffy for the Royals. We'll take the homestanding Pinstripes, as Duffy hasn't had much success vs. New York in his career. He's made nine starts, and owns a nasty 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 43 innings. Today, Duffy will be on a short leash, as he's making his first start since going on the Injured List with a strained left forearm. It's estimated that he will throw no more than 65 pitches. Meanwhile, King is starting to adjust to his newfound role as a starting pitcher in the Yankees' rotation. A sinkerballer, King has improved his command this season, which has lowered his flyball rate, as well as his ERA (7.76 last season; 4.08 in 2021). One advantage for King tonight is that (with the exception of Alberto Hanser), none of the Royals hitters have ever batted against him before. New York is 15-5 the last 20 meetings at home vs. Kansas City. Take the Yankees to blow out the Royals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-23-21 | White Sox -160 v. Pirates | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Dylan Cease will get the start for the Pale Hose this afternoon, as Chicago will attempt to snap its 5-game losing streak. Cease has been brilliant this season in his daytime starts, as he has a 2.87 ERA over those six starts, with a 1.34 WHIP. And he's also been spotless in Interleague action this season (0.00 ERA; 0.66 WHIP). He'll match up against Pirates righty Chase de Jong, and Chicago has been installed as a mid-sized road favorite. That bodes well for Chicago today, as it's 53-19 (+25 games on the moneyline) its last 72 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Pirates are 20-46 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175. Even better for Chicago: de Jong's teams are 0-4 in his career starts when priced as an underdog of +150 (or more). Take Chicago. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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06-22-21 | Brewers -150 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's a rare feat for an MLB team to have three starters selected to the All Star team in the same season. But the Brewers could achieve that in less than a month with their "Big Three" of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Each one of them certainly has the numbers to warrant serious consideration to make the trip to Denver for the Mid-summer Classic. Meanwhile, the first place Brewers have more important things to worry about and those three starters are likely going to be the key to them staying atop the division. Peralta will get his 14th start tonight and it comes against the worst team -- statistically at least -- in the Majors so the 25-year-old RHP has an excellent chance to pick up his seventh win of the season (against two losses). Peralta has a 2.23 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and league-best 4.3 hit rate in his 75 innings of work. Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are still 17-6 in the last 23 meetings with Arizona. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-21 | Giants v. Angels -125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over San Francisco. Lefty Andrew Heaney has been strong of late, as he's given up just 5 runs over his last three starts, covering 18 innings (2.50 ERA). And he's struck out 20 batters (against just 20 baserunners) in those three games (1.11 WHIP). One of those games was against this Giants team. And Heaney dominated San Francisco on the road in that contest, as he gave up just 1 run in 6 1-3 innings, in an 8-1 Angels victory. The Angels are a super 178-134 (+35 games on the moneyline) in interleague games, and we'll back them tonight at home. Take the Angels. |
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06-22-21 | White Sox -170 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The ChiSox will hand the ball to their big right-hander, Lucas Giolito, tonight, and they've won five of his last six starts. Giolito has a nice 3.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season, but he's been at his best at night (2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), and in Interleague starts (1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). Giolito's mound opponent tonight will be southpaw Tyler Anderson, who has lost his last four decisions. His ERA on the season is 4.89, but it's 5.71 over his last three starts, and 5.36 at night. Even worse: Chicago dominates lefty starters, as it is 33-5 the past two seasons in games started by southpaws. Take the White Sox. |
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06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. If the Lightning didn't realize they were in for a major fight when the Islanders became their opponent for this semi-finals series, they certainly realize it now. With their win on Saturday, the Isles tied up this series at two games apiece. However, I expect to see a different Tampa team tonight back at home -- one that plays with the urgency and power that it displayed in the last two games of the series vs. Carolina. Tampa knows it has the benefit of the best goaltender in the game today and the offense needs to force the play in the Islanders zone without worrying too much about what could happen behind the play. The Bolts thrive in these revenge situations. They are 8-1 (+6 games on the moneyline) in their last nine when revenging a one-goal loss to an opponent (and 59-22 off any loss). They are also 4-0 in their last four when in a situation in which they are tied in a playoff series. Take the Lightning. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-21-21 | Braves v. Mets -215 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. Please only list the Mets' Jake deGrom, and not the Atlanta pitcher. We will have a play on the Mets regardless of who starts for Atlanta. The first place Mets must have been given a bit of a scare when the best pitcher on the planet was removed from his last start with shoulder soreness after only three innings. But the team and deGrom himself have since proclaimed that the 33-year-old RH with the incomprehensible numbers is ready to go this late afternoon in the first game of this double-header with the Braves. The fact is that the Mets bullpen is strong enough that even if deGrom has to be pulled early again, they will likely be able to get the job done if he leaves with a lead (like they did last time). How do you even put into words how dominating a 0.54 ERA with 111 strikeouts and eight walks and 26 hits allowed in 67 innings of work is in the Major Leagues? A seven inning game is just what the doctor ordered for deGrom at this point so this situation would appear to be perfect for him. The Mets are 5-0 in deGrom's last five starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights -174 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Montreal Canadiens. Despite out-shooting them on Friday night by a lopsided 45-27 margin, the Knights somehow fell again to the Canadiens to go down two-games-to-one in this semifinals series. That's back-to-back 3-2 losses to this Cinderella Montreal team which at this point has earned the respect of just about anyone following the NHL playoffs. It's pretty much do-or-die tonight for Vegas, which must try to win again in hostile territory before the series moves back to the Strip for Game 5. Look for the Knights to change up some of their lines tonight in an attempt to get to Carey Price, who so far has proven to be almost as impenetrable as a Knight's armor. The Knights are 9-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 11 coming off of a road loss while the Canadiens are 19-30 (-18 games on the moneyline) in their last 49 after two consecutive victories. The Knights are also 11-3 (+10 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 revenging a loss as a road favorite. Take Vegas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers 'under' the total. We played on the 76ers and the 'under' in Game 6, and got the $$$ with each. For Game 7, we'll come right back with the 'under,' as each of the last three games in this series has been low-scoring. Game 4 went 'under' by 23.5 points; Game 5 by 9 points; and Game 6 by 20.5 points! One of the reasons, of course, is that after playing the same team for several games, the defenses understand fully the other team's offensive sets, and don't allow the shooters to get the best looks. So, it's no surprise that, for example, the 76ers have shot 43.4% over the last three games (compared to 55.2% over the first three games). Likewise, Atlanta's shooting percentage has dropped from 48.2% to 41.0%. This season, Philly ranked #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has also allowed just 108.2 ppg. For the year, Atlanta's gone 'under' 65.5% of the time vs. the better defensive teams that allow less than 109.3 ppg. This will be another low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-21 | Rays -152 v. Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. It's no surprise that the Rays drafted LHP Shane McClanahan with the 31st selection in the 2018 Amateur draft. After all, McClanahan was one of the top pitching prospects in the country and he had already been drafted three years earlier by the Mets in the 26th round. But the other reason this choice made so much sense is because McClanahan is a local product and played his college ball at the University of South Florida. Now 24, McClanahan has made it to the big show and it doesn't look like he'll be heading back to the Minors anytime soon. The young southpaw is 2-2 with 4.42 ERA in nine starts, but the numbers that really jump of the page at you are his 46 strikeouts with 13 walks (a 3.54 ratio) in 38 2/3 innings. This will be McClanahan's first start vs. the M's and we will find out if Seattle's pitcher-friendly park agrees with him. Sunshine agrees with the Rays lately as they are 21-7 (+17 games on the moneyline) in their last 28 day games. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-20-21 | Cardinals +105 v. Braves | Top | 9-1 | Win | 105 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Atlanta Braves. Weather caused a postponement of the game between these two on Saturday and so they will do a day-night double-header (of the seven inning variety) in Atlanta. Perhaps it's appropriate that on Fathers' Day, the Cards send their elder statesman to the mound in the first game as RHP Adam Wainwright will get his 14th start of the season in the afternoon affair. The younger pitchers on this team probably look up to the almost-40-year-old as a bit of a father figure these days, but Wainwright can still bring it with the best of them as evidenced by his 3.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in just under 80 innings this season. He certainly shouldn't mind a start against the Braves today as Wainwright is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA in 19 career games (14 starts) covering just over 94 innings against them. Also, Wainwright loves day games, as he has a 67-33 career record and 3.28 ERA in 149 games (118 starts) under the sun. He'll face the Braves Bryse Wilson this afternoon. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Wilson's not fared well at home this season, as he brings a 4.58 home ERA into this contest. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle. The Rays will start southpaw Josh Fleming on Saturday night against RHP Logan Gilbert and the Mariners. This will be Fleming's sixth start of the season, and he has a nice 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 2021. Tampa has been installed as a road favorite in this game, and the Rays are 17-6 when favored by -150 or less this season. And they're 65-34 (+26 games on the moneyline) vs. righties, and 37-21 (+11 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-21 | Brewers +100 v. Rockies | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies will start Austin Gomber tonight, and it will be his 3rd career start vs. Milwaukee. Unfortunately, his career ERA is 7.04 vs. the Brewers, which doesn't inspire confidence tonight. Meanwhile, the Brewers will hand the ball to RHP Adrian Houser, who has made one career start vs. Colorado, and he threw four scoreless innings, while striking out five, and allowing just one hit. Houser's last three starts have all been strong, as he's given up just 3 run over 16 innings (1.69 ERA). And Milwaukee won each of those games. Take the Brewers. |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets to go 'under' the total. These two teams met on Thursday night for Game 6 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points, and the total was 220. The Brooklyn Nets entered that game with a 3-2 series lead, so it was an elimination game for the Bucks. But Milwaukee sprinted out to an 18-5 lead in the first quarter, and finished the quarter with a 26-19 lead. Brooklyn could never mount a comeback, and when the final gun sounded, the Bucks earned a 104-89 victory. The Bucks covered the 4.5-point number, and it went under the total by 27 points. The over/under line for this Game 7 is lower than it was for Game 6, but it's not low enough. And we'll look for another 'under' tonight. Indeed, seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the number this season. Even better: Brooklyn has gone 17-7 'under' vs. winning teams, and 12-4 'under' in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 3 or less. Likewise, Milwaukee has gone 'under' 36-22-1 vs. winning teams, and 27-18 in games priced from +3 to -3. Take the Bucks and Nets to go 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-21 | White Sox +112 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros. Last night, the White Sox dropped their second straight game (both to Houston), as they lost 2-1 to the Astros. But Houston started right-handed pitchers in each of Thursday and Friday's games. And Chicago is a pedestrian 25-23 vs. righties this season. But not against lefties, as Chicago is 18-4 this season, and was 15-0 last season (33-4 combined). Tonight, the Astros will hand the ball to southpaw Framber Valdez, who will make his fifth start of the season. He has a 1.42 ERA, and the Astros are 3-1 in his starts. But he will face a tough opponent tonight in White Sox righty Lance Lynn. Lynn has made 12 starts this season, and has a 7-2 record, and a 1.63 ERA. Take the underdog White Sox. |
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06-19-21 | A's v. Yankees -115 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Oakland A's. Last night, something had to give, as Oakland brought a six-game win streak into the Bronx, while the Yankees were on a 3-game win streak. The A's were victorious, 5-3, so New York will look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. The Pinstripes will hand the ball to RHP Domingo German, while Oakland will start Chris Bassitt. New York has been installed as a home favorite, which bodes well as it is 89-45 (+10 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced at -110 (or higher). And New York is 17-6, in German's 23 home starts, including 8-1 in his nine home starts, when priced from -125 to -175. Take New York on Saturday. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-21 | Rays -108 v. Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. RHP Michael Wacha broke into the Major Leagues with St. Louis at the tender age of 21 back in 2013. Wacha spent each of the next seven seasons with the Cards before being granted free agency in 2019 and signing with the Mets for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He signed with Tampa before this season and Wacha has been able to contribute to the first place Rays' success as both a starter and reliever so far. He will get his eighth start of the season tonight and it comes in a pitcher-friendly park which should suit Wacha well. Wacha's teams are 4-0 in his last four starts vs. AL West teams. Meanwhile, the M's will go with Japanese southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who has had a pretty successful season so far with a 3.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts. But despite solid numbers of late, Seattle is just 8-16 (-10 games on the moneyline) in Kikuchi's last 24 home starts as well as 10-23 (-14 games on the moneyline) in his last 33 night starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -1.5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Los Angeles Clippers. This series is emblematic of the injury woes that have been front-and-center for the NBA this Playoffs season. Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard for the remainder of this series, while Utah has been playing without Mike Conley, but with a hobbled Donovan Mitchell (both Conley and Mitchell are officially listed as 'questionable' for this game). We'll take Utah to bounce back off its Game 5 loss, as it is 34-14 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was off a SU/ATS home loss. And road favorites have cashed 73% off back to back playoff losses since 2004. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-21 | Dodgers -184 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pitching match-ups don't get much more one-sided than this, as Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, will face Caleb Smith. It's true that Bauer had his worst start since September 2019 six days ago when the Rangers crushed the Dodgers, 12-1. But I fully expect Bauer to bounce back tonight. He has a perfect 4-0 record, with a 1.99 ERA in division games this season, while Smith has a 5.19 ERA on the season (and a 9.00 ERA in division games). Throw in the facts that Arizona has dropped 14 straight games, and has also given up 4+ runs in 14 of its last 15 games, and you have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Dodgers tonight (given that Bauer's teams have won 10 straight when they've scored 4+ runs with him on the mound). Take Los Angeles. |
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06-18-21 | Brewers -186 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -186 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. The National League Central is probably the most entertaining Division in all of the Major Leagues. The non-play of the St. Louis Cardinals has opened things up in the Division and right now it looks like any one of four teams can wear the crown come September (all except Pittsburgh, which is already out of it). Milwaukee's success is due to its "big three" starters of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes. Those three just might be the best 1-2-3 top of the rotation in all of baseball right now (and the three that nobody wants to face in a short playoff series). It will be RH Burnes tonight in arguably the toughest place for starters in the League. But if there's anyone who can tame Coors Field, it just might be Burnes, who has a 2.27 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate in 11 starts covering 63 1/3 innings. Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are 7-2 in their last nine road games vs. teams with a losing record. Take Milwaukee. |