ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -6 vs. NY Knicks, 8:30 pm ET - The Spurs outplayed the Knicks for a majority of Game 1, then Brunson took over in the 4th Q for a short period of time and the Knicks pulled away for good. Coincidentally, the Knicks run came with Wemby off the floor. The Spurs (Wemby) didn’t play well offensively in the opener, and we expect a much better performance on that end of the court in Game 2. San Antonio shot just 36% overall and made 11/43 3-pointers or 26% from deep. The Spurs have one of the best offensive efficiency ratings in the playoffs and that factors in their series against the best defense in the NBA in OKC. The Knicks defense deserves some credit, but their season long numbers suggest they aren’t as good as they showed in Game 1. The Knicks didn’t put up great offensive numbers on that end of the court which is understandable considering the Spurs had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating during the regular season and 2nd best in the playoffs. San Antonio was the best team in the league when coming off a loss this season with a 21-6 SU record and an average margin of victory of +11.1PPG. SAS is 11-1 in their last 12 when playing at home and coming off a loss and all of those wins but one came by 9 or more points. We will call for a blowout here.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks +5 at San Antonio Spurs Game 1 – 8:30 pm ET - Prior to the start of the playoffs, I felt the Spurs could come out of the West. I didn’t think the Knicks would come out of the East. When New York decided to go on the current postseason heater they are on I told a friend in the industry, if the Spurs come out of the Western Conference, the Knicks are the only team in the league that can beat them. I will give the Knicks a slight lean to win it all this year as I feel they matchup favorably with the Spurs. New York played a much softer schedule to get here but we can’t overlook their +21.6 Net rating in the playoffs and this 11-game winning streak. NY is 12-2 in the playoffs with an average +/- of plus +19.4PPG. They won’t be intimidated by the venue with a 6-game winning streak on the road. We could see a small letdown for the young Spurs in this opener as they are coming off a monumental series win against the defending Champs in OKC. San Antonio’s young guards have been great and we expect huge careers from Castle and Harper, but both have been prone to turnovers in the postseason. San Antonio averaged 16.4 TO’s versus the Thunder in the WC Finals. NY won 2/3 regular season meetings with the Spurs and the lone loss in San Antonio was by 2-points. This is going to be a tight first game so let’s take whatever points are available with the Knicks.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:15pm ET - We will back the more experienced Thunder team on their home court over the Spurs and lay the points with OKC. This number is low according to our models as the Thunder should be favored by -6 points with adjustments over the past two weeks after the Thunder opened -7.5-points in G1 and G2. After getting upset in Game 1 the Thunder responded with a pair of home wins by 9 and 13-points. The home team has also won 4 of the six games in this series and those wins came by 9 or more points. OKC is 24-17 ATS the past two seasons when coming off a loss with an impressive +11.2PPG average winning margin. Overall home teams have historically done well in Game 7’s overall in the playoffs, winning outright roughly 74% of the time. In the Conference Finals that winning percentage dips to 63% but is enough to put us on the defending Champs in their own building.

ASA NBA play on OVER 219.5 OKC Thunder at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30pm ET - Four of the five games in this series has gone OVER the total but one of those did take OT to get there. In Game 4 the two teams finished with 185 total points, but the Thunder basically cashed it in the 4th Q and shot WELL below expectations at 33% overall and 18% from deep. Those are certainly unusual numbers considering this Thunder team shot 48.3% on the season (5th best) and 36.6% from beyond the arc (9th). The winning team in each game of this series has scored 120+ points and the pace of play numbers indicate another higher scoring game here. Each team is averaging 98.3 possessions per game in this 5-game series which is higher than the average pace for all the teams in the playoffs. Granted, both teams are great defensively but in the postseason they have the 2nd (OKC) and 3rd (Spurs) best offensive Net rating at 120.1 and 114.9. They also have eFG% of 55.8% (OKC) and 54.2% (SAS) which are both on par with their full season statistics. We are projecting 220+ points in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder +3.5 at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30pm ET - The experience of the Thunder after winning a Championship a year ago will shine through in the biggest game of the season tonight in San Antonio. The Thunder were roasted on this court in Game 4, then made adjustments for Game 5 and beat the Spurs handily. San Antonio hasn’t shot it well in this series at 42.5% overall but have made it a series by crashing the offensive boards. The Thunder were outrebounded by -21 total rebounds in the first two games, but they countered by playing Hartenstein more and the rebounding has evened out in the last 3-games with OKC being +6 combined. Wemby looked like the playoffs were taking a toll on him last game as his minutes are up drastically compared to the regular season numbers and the Thunder are continually beating on him to wear him down. The Spurs are 37-11 SU at home this season, but the Thunder are 35-11 SU on the road. We expect a very tight game and the veteran leadership for OKC will shine through in the end.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs +5.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30 pm ET - We won’t take the oddsmakers ‘bait’ with the soft line on the Thunder tonight in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. OKC was favored by -7.5-points at home in the first two games of this series, is coming off a loss and now only favored by -5.5 (and it is as low as -4.5 in some shops) and the line came down from the opening number. In fact, two very sharp Books were carrying -4.5 well before the public books started moving their numbers. The Spurs defense may have figured out a way to slow the Thunders offense with their drop coverage. After an insanely good shooting night in Game 3 by the Thunder bench, the numbers dropped significantly in G4 with OKC hitting just 33% overall and 18% from deep. Chet Holmgren continues to be a ‘no show’ and the reserves couldn’t make up the difference for J-Williams and Mitchell both being out. San Antonio didn’t shoot great in Game 4 but still won 21-points. The Spurs hit just 39% overall and 27% from beyond the arc. We will grab the points with San Antonio tonight and expect a 1 field goal game either way.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -2.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - In Game 1 it was evident the Cavs were going to give the Knicks all they could handle in this series when they built a 22-point lead in the 4th quarter. The Knicks made a historical rally, and it looks like that result has broken the Cavaliers. New York has outscored the Cavs by 40 points in the 3-game series and have an overall Net rating of +13.8 in that stretch of games. NY is shooting the lights out against the Cavs with an eFG% of 61.1%. In comparison the Cavs have a negative Net rating of -13.6 in this series with an eFG% of 50.2%. The Knicks have won 10 consecutive playoff games by an average of 22.5 points. The schedule and fatigue look like it’s caught up to the Cavs who have played every other day since the end of April and coming off two 7-games series is starting to add up. Cleveland has no answer defensively for Brunson and the rest of the Knicks. New York moves on to the Final.

ASA NBA play on OVER 218.5 NY Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - We are monitoring the betting markets and we have split wagering on this O/U. The public is on the UNDER here, but sharp money is starting to flow in on the OVER. The Cavs defense has been exploited by the Knicks in this series who have an offensive Net rating of 116.9 in this series and an eFG% of 61.1%. In traditional statistics the Knicks are hitting 51.6% from the field overall and 35.4% from deep against the Cavs. Cleveland wasn’t a great defensive team in the regular season with an efficiency rating of 1.151-points per possession allowed (15th) and they’ve been as bad in this post season allowing 1.137PPP. The Knicks offense is averaging the most points in the paint of all the playoff teams, average the most fast break points are second in 2nd chance points and 5th in points off turnovers. If this game turns into a Knicks blowout it will go OVER the number. If Cleveland does find their shooting stroke, we also cash the OVER. We expect this game to get into the 220’s.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:15 pm ET - We will come back with the Spurs in Game 4, coming off a home loss and now down 1-2 in the series. Historically favorites in the playoffs have done well in this situation and we still contend the Spurs can win this series. OKC made the adjustments in Game 3 after splitting 1 and 2 at home. We expect a regression in their shooting numbers though as they hit 48% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. We doubt they will get 5/6 3-pointers from Jaylin Williams again nor do we think bench players Joe, Williams and Caruso can hit another 71% from deep. Let’s not forget the Spurs had the 8th best 3PT% defense in the regular season and has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the postseason, ahead of the Thunder. OKC has been highly efficient in the playoffs at 1.251-points per possession but the Spurs have a oEFF rating of 1.171PPP which is 3rd best. The Spurs are 19-6 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +10.9PPG and should bounce back here. With Fox and Harper both slated to play again we like San Antonio to even this series at 2-2 after tonight.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 220 OKC Thunder at San Antonio Spurs 7:15 pm ET - The first game of this series finished in regulation with 202 total points, then the next two games exploded with 235 and 231. Despite the last two games going OVER easily, the oddsmakers are refusing to raise this O/U number for Game 4. The Books are also taking large sums of public money on the OVER, yet won’t budge on this number. That tells us to bet the UNDER. We expect a regression in the Thunders 3PT shooting as they’ve hit 40% and 45% in the last two games with several players off the bench doing the majority of the damage. OKC shot 36.7% from deep in the regular season and the Spurs were the 8th best 3PT% defense in the league allowing 35%. San Antonio has struggled to score with 102 (regulation), 113 and 108 in the three games. San Antonio has an offensive Net rating in the playoffs of 115.9 but against the Thunder that number has dipped to 111. We have seen a decline in their shooting percentages too facing a Thunder D that allowed 1.078 points per possession during the regular season. The pace of play fell off dramatically in the last game with 161 total field goal attempts. With both teams playing slower we can’t see this game getting into the 220’s. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks are going to win this series and advance, but the Cavs won’t go quietly and will win this home game tonight. Cleveland has been great at home in the playoffs, going 6-1 SU with an average scoring differential of +5.0 and the 2nd best home court eFG% at 58%. New York has just 1 road loss in these playoffs, but they also faced a lower tier Atlanta team and swept a beat up 76ers team. Cleveland has looked much better against the Knicks than we anticipated, and home court has absolutely meant something when these two teams have squared off with a 5-0 SU record this season. The Cavs also fall into a solid 61% playoff system that supports teams down 0-2 in the series. Home favorites that are down 0-2 SU in the conference Finals have covered 9 of the last 13 in that situation. The Cavs have also bounce back well when coming off a loss with a 40-18 SU record the past two seasons and an average scoring differential of +6.3PPG in that scenario. Going into this series, the Knicks offensive ratings were off the charts and the Cavs defense has played well holding them to a Net rating of 113 which is well below their ONR heading into this series. The Knicks defense has played well but the Cavs (eFG% vs. Knicks 46.1%) should shoot better in their own building where they had the 7th best eFG% during the regular season at 56%. Our math model projects the Cavs to win this game by margin and we concur.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - This bet is largely predicated on DeAaron Fox being able to play tonight. He warmed up prior to the last game but was then a late scratch before tipoff. From everything we’ve seen Dylan Harper Jr is much less likely to play. With Fox on the court we are very comfortable backing the Spurs at home in Game 3. This is a match up advantage for the Spurs who are 5-2 SU against the Thunder this season. In Game 1 this young Spurs team stayed poised and won a double OT game in OKC – one of the toughest places to play in the NBA. Even in Game 2 when Harper was injured after 25 minutes, the Spurs still played extremely well with the game essentially getting decided in the 4th quarter. In G2 the Thunder were +7 on free throw makes and won the turnover battle 9 to 21 which was the difference. Now back at home we like the Spurs to take care of the basketball and win the rebound battle (+21 in the first game, +4 in G1). Both teams have fantastic home/road records with the Thunder 34-10 SU away, San Antonio is 36-10 SU in their own building. Two factors are suggesting Fox will be in the lineup tonight – one the line has ticked up from -1.5 to -2 suggesting he’s available. Secondly, we are seeing his player prop lines in the market which also signal his return. Even if he’s not 100% he can run the offense and cut down on Castles turnovers which would have a huge impact on this outcome. At this point in time, we feel the Spurs are the better team – and if healthy will come out of the Western Conference. Lay it with the home team who are 19-5 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +11.1PPG.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - Rest = rust! Saying the Knicks started slow in Game 1 would be the understatement of all time. It took New York 3.5 quarters to get going and pull a miraculous come from behind win in OT over the Cavs and we feel the lingering emotional effects for Cleveland will impact tonight’s game. New York exploited James Harden defensively late in that game with Jalen Brunson taking over in the 4th quarter. The Knicks got off to an unexpected slow starting in G1 and looked tentative offensively. By the end of the game the Knicks had 60 points in the paint compared to the Cavs 38 and had a +9-rebounding advantage. Four of the five Cavaliers starters were minus in +/- for the game. New York has won 8 straight games and covered the spread in 7 of eight. At home they’ve been nearly unbeatable with 4 straight wins and two of those came by 29 and 39-points. New York was one of the best teams in the NBA at home this season overall at 35-11 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.3PPG. So far in these playoffs they have the best overall Net rating of +18.9 as they are getting it done on both ends of the court. Cleveland comes into this game with an overall Net rating in the playoffs of +0.2 Cleveland is 2-6 SU on the road in this postseason and 5 of those six losses came by double-digits. The Cavs were 27-22 SU on the road this season overall with an average plus/minus of +2.3PPG. The home team won all 4 meetings between these two teams this season and the Knicks get it done by double-digits in Game 2.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:36pm ET - I was very afraid of Game 1 in this series as the one lingering outlier that favored the Spurs in that opener was simply match ups. Sometimes whether it be football, basketball, baseball or whatever, one team has an advantage over the other because the team has been constructed specifically to beat the other team. That’s what we’re seeing with this young Spurs team against OKC who they’ve now beaten 5 of six times this season. OKC relies on drives to the basket (#1 in the NBA) along with turnovers and transition efficiency. The problem is this: Wemby is on the back line of the defense and owns the paint. Secondly, the Spurs don’t turn the ball over and don’t allow fast break points (rank top 5 in all of those defensive categories). With all that said we have to make a small wager on the Thunder to bounce back here off that loss and get a home win to even this series. The Thunder are 33-7 SU their last 40 games when coming off a loss (dating back to last season) with an average margin of victory of +11.1PPG. I do believe the Spurs will win this series now but this is the one game I like OKC to get a big win after the Spurs starters saw extended minutes in Game 1 and may punt this game late if it gets out of hand.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 216.5 San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:36pm ET - This is our favorite play of the night as we expect another very low scoring game between these two teams as the defenses of each are well above league standards. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 202 total points in regulation, well below the O/U set by the oddsmakers of 218.5. Neither team shot well with the Thunder hitting 41% from the field, the Spurs shot 43%. Those numbers are understandable though with the defenses of each team being outstanding. OKC was 1st in defensive efficiency during the regular season at 1.078 points per possession allowed, the Spurs were 3rd giving up 1.114PPP. In the postseason, the Spurs are allowing just 1.038PPP, the Thunder are giving up 1.100PPP. The defensive Net rating in Game 1 was outstanding with the Spurs at 102.7, the Thunder were 106.1. We expect another defensive game on Wednesday and don’t see these two teams getting to 210 or more.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -6.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 Pm ET - Don’t relate last night’s home loss by the Thunder to this game tonight as the Knicks are the play in this game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Adam Silver and the NBA want nothing more than the big market Knicks to come out of the East this year and we feel they win this series in 5 games. New York had a couple rough outings early in the Atlanta series but have been cruising ever since. They have won 7 straight games and covered the spread in 6 of seven. At home they’ve been nearly unbeatable with 3 straight wins and two of those came by 29 and 39-points. New York was one of the best teams in the NBA at home this season overall at 34-11 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.3PPG. So far in these playoffs they have the best overall Net rating of +20 as they are getting it done on both ends of the court. Cleveland barely escaped the 2nd round with a Game 7 win over the Pistons. They come into this game with limited rest and an overall Net rating in the playoffs of +1.0. Cleveland is 2-5 SU on the road in this postseason and 4 of those five losses came by double-digits. The Cavs were 27-21 SU on the road this season overall with an average plus/minus of +2.3PPG. The home team won all 3 meetings between these two teams this season and the Knicks get it done here by 12+ points.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -6.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:30pm ET - This is going to be a fun series and I’m betting will be much better than the actual Finals. This is a new budding rivalry as the Spurs are legitimately the only team in the league that can beat the Thunder in our opinion. Much of that is due to matchups as Wemby can nullify Holmgren on the defensive end and also exploits him on the offensive end of the court. The Spurs also have great defensive guards on the perimeter to contain SGA and company. With that said, in Game 1 we like the Thunder by double-digits. OKC fans are some of the best in the biz and will be rabid tonight in this home game against a Spurs team that has beaten their beloved Thunder 4 of five times this season. OKC was double-digit favorites in every playoff game but one and every home win came by an average of 21PPG. The Thunder are 84-15 SU the last two seasons at home with an average margin of victory of +14PPG. OKC will get Williams back for this game and his added scoring and this team will certainly not overlook the Spurs after losing to them in 4/5 this season. The betting markets are supporting our theory on this Game 1 with a heavier volume of money/tickets coming in on the public Spurs, yet the line ticked up a point from -5.5 to -6.5 here. We will fade the public and take OKC in G1.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 205.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, 8 pm ET - We are coming back with another UNDER bet in this series as we expect the elimination game to get tight, especially in the 4th quarter where each possession will become critical. The volume of field goal attempts in this series has been pretty consistent around 163 per game. In Game 6 that number dipped to 159. With limited FGA’s it’s tough to score points unless teams shoot well above expectations. The Pistons did that in G6 which is somewhat of an anomaly considering they have an eFG% of 54.2% in this series. The Cavs are one of the leagues better shooting teams at 48.1% on the season but the Pistons have held them to 45.3% shooting in this series. The Pistons defense allowed the 3rd lowest percentage in the NBA this season at 44.1%. In the playoffs thus far the Pistons are the 13th slowest paced team, the Cavs are the 11th slowest. Detroit’s offense in the playoffs has been ‘average’ with a Net rating of 111.7 and an eFG% that ranks 9th out of the 16 playoff teams. With all the pressure of Game 7 we expect conservative play from both teams where every possession will matter. Bet UNDER here.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:40 pm ET - There are plenty of trends out there that support the Wolves at home that rely on Game 6 home dog situations, but it’s become obvious the Spurs are just that much better. In fact, the betting markets are supporting that train of thought with the Sharps pounding San Antonio tonight. We could visually see the Wolves were struggling and barely managed to beat the Spurs without Wemby in Game 4 at home. Then is Game 5 we accurately predicted a Spurs win and tonight they end the series in Minnesota with a double-digit win. The T’Wolves offense in the last two games has struggled with a Net rating of 104.5 and an eFG% of 47.2% - both substantially lower than their season long averages of 115.6 and 55.9%. Obviously, that has a lot to do with the Spurs defense that was one of the best all season long with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.114-points per possession allowed during the regular season. In the post season the Spurs have been the best defense of the playoffs allowing 1.034PPP. It’s not just defense that the Spurs have the clear advantage over the Wolves. San Antonio has an OEFF of 1.165-points per possession in the playoffs, the Wolves OEFF is 1.087PPP – and that’s after facing a bad Denver defense in the first round. The Spurs are moving on to face the Thunder in the WC Finals.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -3.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - The home teams is clearly the play in this series with the host now 4-0 SU and ATS. The Pistons won the first two games at home by 10-points each, then the Cavs won in Cleveland by 7 and 9-points respectively. Dating back to the regular season that makes it 6 in a row for the home team. Cleveland was solid but not great on the road this season at 25-21 SU, but had the 2nd worst spread record away from home at 17-29 ATS. The Pistons are 36-10 SU at home this season, 25-21 ATS but have a +10.2PPG average scoring differential which was 3rd best in the NBA this season. Detroit has better overall numbers with a Net rating of +4.2 In the postseason, compared to the Cavs at +0.1. With this low of a number we will back the Pistons at home off back to back losses.

ASA NBA play on OVER 218 Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The first game of this series stayed UNDER with 206 total points but since then we’ve seen three straight OVERS with total points scored of 228, 223 and 223. In the most recent game the Spurs lost Wemby early with a flagrant 2 foul and still scored 109, even after shooting just 23% from beyond the arc. Now the Spurs are back at home where they’ll shoot better (49.2% at home, 47.3% road) and score more (119.6ppg at home this season – 4th highest). San Antonio was the 7th best 3PT shooting team on their home court this season at 37%. We will obviously need scoring from the Wolves too and should get it with Edwards and Randall more than capable of putting up big numbers. Minnesot ais the 3rd best 3PT shooting team in the NBA when playing on the road and have the 2nd best overall FG% when playing away. The Wolves scoring traveled with them as they were the 2nd highest scoring road team in the NBA at 119.7PPG. Minnesota has been the fastest paced team in the playoffs at 100.25, the Spurs are 3rd fastest at 99.11. We expect another game in the 220’s.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 213.5 Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:10 pm ET - The first two games of this series stayed below the totals but the 3rd snuck over the number with 225 total points being scored. Today’s game will shift back to an UNDER based on pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency metrics. The volume of field goal attempts in this series has been pretty consistent with 164, 161 and 165. Game 3 went OVER the total largely due to the Cavs having a great shooting night at 58% overall and 38% from deep. The Cavs are one of the leagues better shooting teams at 48.1% on the season but it’s unrealistic to expect them to shoot at 58% again in Game 4. Especially when you consider they are facing a Pistons defense that allowed the 3rd lowest percentage in the NBA this season at 44.1%. In the playoffs thus far the Pistons are the 12th slowest paced teams, the Cavs are the 9th slowest. Detroit’s offense in the playoffs has been ‘average’ with a Net rating of 110.2 and an eFG% that ranks 10th out of the 16 playoff teams. With the oddsmakers adjusting the line up slightly after G3 we will bet the value and play UNDER tonight.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7:40 pm ET - The Wolves shocked the Spurs in Game 1, then got pummeled in Game 2 by San Antonio then lost Game 3 at home. Now we expect Minnesota to play like they did in Game 1 in what should be a very competitive game down to the wire. The Wolves went 3-0 at home against the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs with all three wins coming by double-digits. In fact, the Wolves have the 3rd best Net rating at home in the post season at +16.0. Granted, the Spurs are 3-0 away from home with a +18.4 Net rating on the road in the playoffs but two of those wins also came against the 7 seed Blazers. The home team has won 4 of the six meetings this season and the Wolves bounced back well after a loss this season with a 22-14 SU record and an average +/- of +3.9PPG. We expect a regression in the Spurs shooting after a 46% overall night and 36% from beyond the arc in Game 3. We love Wemby who looks like a generational talent, but we also don’t see him putting together another 13/18 shooting night for 39-points. Minnesota may not win this game outright but are numbers suggest a 1-score game either way.

ASA NBA play on OVER 211.5 Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, 3pm ET - The oddsmakers have overcorrected this O/U number with the first two games of this series staying UNDER 216.5 in Game 1 and 214.5 in Game 2. We will bet the value and play OVER in this one. The Cavaliers will want to dictate a faster tempo at home and play in space against the physical Pistons lineup. In the playoffs, the Cavs home games have all finished with 216 or more total points. Cleveland had the 5th best eFG% in the NBA during the regular season and 6th best true shooting percentage. The Pistons have found their groove offensively with a Net rating of 117.8 in the first two games of this series. They have a 53.7 eFG% against this Cleveland team that allowed the Raptors offense to score 112 or more in 4 games of the first round series. In the two regular season meetings between these two teams on this court they produced 222 and 224 total points. This game will get into the 220’s.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -115 vs. NY Knicks, 7pm ET - Based on the line move in this game it looks like OG Anunoby will be out for the Knicks. That’s a huge blow for New York as you could argue he’s been the best player on the floor for the Knicks in the playoffs. Plus, we now have a desperate Sixers team down 0-2 at home and off a loss. Game 3 favorites that are down 0-2 SU in a playoff series have hit at a profitable margin of nearly 60%. Philly is 26-15 SU off a loss this season, 5-1 SU their last six at home when coming off an ‘L’. Game 2 was obviously very competitive after the 76ers were blown out in Game 1 (short rest and coming off emotional Celtics series). Philly did that with Embiid out and their two backup centers getting in early foul trouble (Drummond, Bona). There is a chance Embiid plays tonight, but either way we like Philadelphia to win this critical Game 3. New York has an impressive 24-20 SU road record this season but they fall to just 5-9 SU when playing as a road dog. Back the 76ers in this one and we take advantage of a money line price that is just -115 rather than laying the 1.5 points here.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 210.5 LA Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:40m ET - The Lakers path for success in this series is to limit possessions as they did in RD1 with 92.40 possessions per game, lowest of the playoff teams. On the pace note, the Thunder saw a regression in their pace of play compared to their regular season numbers as they went from 100.37 possessions per game to just 96.75 possessions per game in the first round against Portland. Even after a hot shooting start to the series in round 1 the Lakers offense is 12th in Net rating in the playoffs at 107.4 with an eFG% of 53.8%. The Lakers shot 53%, 46% and 41% from deep in the first three games of that series then dipped to 23% and 26% in Games 4-5. In game 6 they corrected to 43% from beyond the arc but also shot just 40% overall. Against the Thunder in Game 1 the Lakers really struggled to score putting up just 90-points on 41% shooting. It’s going to be tough to score against this Thunder D that was best in the league in FG% D allowing 43.8% on the season and was the #1 defensive efficiency team in the league allowing 1.078-points per possession. Granted, the Thunder are going to score in this game with their 1.288-points per possession playoff offense but with limited possessions and the Lakers potentially not scoring more than 95-points we have to bet UNDER in this one. In three of the four regular season meetings the Thunder held the Lakers to 87, 96 and 92-points and then just limited them to 90 in G1 of this series with 85 field goal attempts. Even if OKC gets to the 110-115 range, this game still has a great shot at staying UNDER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 215 Philadelphia 76ers at NY Knicks, 7pm ET - The first game of this series cruised to an OVER largely because the Knicks put up 137 points themselves, but Philly completely punted late in the game, or they would have scored more than 98-points. We expect another higher scoring game here with the shooting percentages leveling out as the Knicks aren’t shooting 63% again but should be around their season average of 48%. We are also banking on the Sixers shooting better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 at 41% (46% on season). The season O/U record between these two rivals is 3-2 to the OVER and interestingly enough, one of the two teams has scored 130 or more points in three meetings. All 5 meetings this season have finished with 221 or more total points being scored. The Knicks are the 2nd best offensive net rating in the playoffs at 124.5, the 76ers are 9th at 109.3. The Knicks have the best post season eFG% at 59.4%, the 76ers sit 10th at 55.3%. Based on their playoff efficiency stats our model projects 218.3 total points being scored. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it certainly points us in the right direction. We are on the OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 214.5 LA Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:40 pm ET - Two takeaways from the Lakers/Rockets round one series….the Lakers defense is not that good, the Rockets offense was just bad, also the Lakers aren’t going to shoot like they did early on against this Thunder defense. The Lakers path for success in this series is to limit possessions as they did in RD1 with 92.40 possessions per game, lowest of the playoff teams. On the pace note, the Thunder saw a regression in their pace of play compared to their regular season numbers as they went from 100.37 possessions per game to just 96.75 possessions per game in the first round against Portland. Even after a hot shooting start to the series the Lakers offense is 12th in Net rating in the playoffs at 107.4 with an eFG% of 53.8%. The Lakers shot 53%, 46% and 41% from deep in the first two games of the series then dipped to 23% and 26% in Games 4-5. In game 6 they corrected to 43% from beyond the arc but also shot just 40% overall. It’s going to be tough to score against this Thunder D that was best in the league in FG% D allowing 43.8% on the season and was the #1 defensive efficiency team in the league allowing 1.078-points per possession. Granted, the Thunder are going to score in this game with their 1.288-points per possession playoff offense but with limited possessions and the Lakers potentially not scoring more than 95-points we have to bet UNDER in this one. In three of the four regular season meetings the Thunder held the Lakers to 87, 96 and 92-points.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -7 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers are in a brutally tough scheduling situation here with just 1 day rest after coming off that emotional draining series upset of the Celtics in 7-games. New York on the other hand has been off since Thursday after eliminating the Hawks in Atlanta. There were some concerns with the Knicks in that series but they seem to have things figured out with three straight wins by 16, 29 and 51-points. You could argue the Knicks are playing better than anyone in the playoffs as they currently have the best Net rating at +18.1 (Thunder next at +17.8). Philadelphia deserves credit for their first round upset but let’s face it, they caught a MASSIVE break in Game 7 when Tatum and Vucevic didn’t play (unknown to everyone including us) and shot horrible with Brown, White and Pritchard combining for 26/66 shooting overall and 10/32 from beyond the arc. Philly ranks 11th out of sixteen playoff teams in Net rating, behind the Rockets (10th) who looked terrible in their series with the Lakers. New York was favored over the 76ers in all four games this season including being favored by -2.5-points most recently on Feb 11th in Philadelphia. New York had one of the best home court records at home this season of 32-11 SU with the second best average scoring differential of +10.2ppg. NY was 13-4 ATS against the rest of the division this season with an average +/- of +15.6ppg. Given the rest advantage we feel this game is going to be a blowout. Lay it with New York.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 7:30pm ET - The home team has won all 6 games in this series and we expect Cleveland to advance today. In the process they’ll cover this moderate spread. Historically home teams in Game 7’s tend to win big (someone forgot to tell Boston) and today we get a favorable number with the Cavs who were favored by more than this in the 3 previous home games in this series. In Games 1& 2 the Cavs won by 13 and 10 points respectively. In Game 5 at home the Cavs won by 5 points and failed to cover. Toronto has a deafening home court advantage when the fans are engaged and last game which certainly helped the younger players in the big moment. Now it will be the vets turn to take over in Cleveland where Mitchell, Harden and Mobley have all been in the spotlight of big games before. The Raptors leading scorer Brandon Ingram is a game time decision with a heel injury and even if he does play he won’t be 100%. Cleveland has one of the best home court records in the NBA at 3-=14 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9ppg. The Raptors have been an average road team at 22-22 SU with a plus 0.5ppg differential. The NBA playoff zig-zag theory will apply to this game with the Cavs notching a double-digit win.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35pm ET - The Celtics have now lost two straight games to the 76ers and Philly was clearly the better team in both. Maxey has been the best player on the court, Paul George turned back the clock last game and Embiid actually played hard. Boston had issues with Tatum and Brown taking turns playing iso-ball and forgot what helped them win 56 games during the regular season – ball movement. In my opinion, Joe Mazzulla is the best coach in the NBA and he’ll make adjustments for this elimination game. There aren’t many teams better than the Celtics when coming off a loss as they went 21-7 SU, 15-8 ATS with an average margin of victory of +9.1PPG this season. If we go back to last season, we see the C’s were 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +18.6PPG. Boston is 31-13 SU at home this season and their average scoring differential in road games is +7.3ppg. Philly shot well in the last two games to extend this series but we expect a regression here. The 76ers were a below average shooting team on the season at 46.1% (23rd) and hit just 34.9% from deep – also 23rd in the league. Boston had two straight unusually poor shooting nights at 28% and 29% from beyond the arc but will find their rhythm at home. The line value is telling in this game as the Celtics were just favored by -6.5-points on the road and were -13.5 in the first game of this series, -8.5 in G2 and -10.5 in Game 5. We will trust the season long statistics, not the last two games and back the C’s here.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 206.5 LA Lakers at Houston Rockets, 9:30pm ET - I’m kicking myself for not taking the last game UNDER the total but it’s always easy when the games are over. The trend in this series has been low possessions and field goal attempts. Three of the five games in this series have stayed below the total but one of the overs took OT to get there. In the first three games the Lakers shot the lights out, well above season standards. In the last two games the Lakers have regressed to their season norms which has resulted in them scoring 93 and 96-points. The Rockets offense has not been good in this series and currently ranks 9th in offensive net rating in the post season. After a hot start, the Lakers have a ONR of 107.6 which ranks 12th. These two teams rank 7th and 8th in defensive efficiency ratings in the playoffs allowing 1.100-points per possession. Speaking of pace, this has been the slowest paced series of the playoffs with each team averaging 92.2. We expect the UNDER trend to continue in this tightly contested series.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - The Celtics got caught playing with their food in the last game and lost at home to the Sixers. There aren’t many teams better than the Celtics when coming off a loss as they went 21-6 SU, 15-7 ATS with an average margin of victory of +9.1PPG. If we go back to last season we see the C’s were 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +18.6PPG. Boston is 27-16 ATS away from home this season and their average scoring differential in road games is +8.1ppg. Not to mention, they already have two wins on this court already in this series by 8 and 32-points. Philly shot well in the last game to extend this series by hitting 50% overall and 36% from deep. Boston had an unusually poor shooting night at 40% and 28%. Boston has been one of the three best teams in the NBA all season long and they’ll flex tonight in Philadelphia with a double digit road win.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers -4 vs. Houston Rockets, 10pm ET - This series has been shocking to say the least and now we have the Lakers favored at home by as many points as they were getting in Game 1. That’s a massive adjustment in the number but we don’t feel it’s enough. The Rockets offense has looked atrocious in 3 of the four games and is currently 15th in offensive Net rating out of the sixteen teams. Only Phoenix has been worse offensively than Houston. The Lakers were a bottom tier defensive team all season long and are playing hard on that end of the court allowing 1.097 points per possession, significantly lower than the 1.169PPP they gave up in the regular season. The Lakers had 3 great shooting games in 1, 2 and 3 of 41% or better from beyond the arc, then hit just 5/22 3-pointers in their game 4 loss. No Kevin Durant again tonight for Houston so it’s not like they’re going to pick up another scoring option to help their flailing offense. The Lakers though could get a boost with the return of Austin Reaves which would give them another perimeter scorer. With the Lakers returning home they should find their stroke from deep again which leads to a 6-or more point win and end to the series.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Portland Trailblazers at San Antonio Spurs, 9:30pm ET - This has been the 3rd fastest paced series of the playoffs yet 3 of the four games has stayed UNDER the total. Tonight, that changes as the desperation of being eliminated by the Blazers along with a positive regression in their scoring helps send this game OVER the total. In the last game the Blazers managed just 35 second half points which were well below season standards. That came after scoring 58-points in the first half. Portland shot 40% overall and just 32% from deep and one of their starters, Scoot Henderson when 0-10 with 0 points. I’m betting that doesn’t happen again as he had scored 21, 31 and 18-points in the three previous games. The Spurs offense has been much better with Wembanyama on the floor as they put up 114 and 111-points against this Blazers team when he’s been available for the entire game. The Spurs have the 5th best eFG% in the playoffs at 54.7% and 3rd best offensive efficiency rating at 1.163-points per possession. Based on our season long math model’s number these two teams should combine to score 228.6 total points. We are on the OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -10.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:30pm ET - The Wolves lost two big pieces to their offense with Edwards and DiVincenzo (combined averaged 40ppg) out for this game and moving forward. As we’ve seen many times in the past, when key players get injured in a game, a role player will step up as the Wolves Dosunmu did in Game 4 with 43-points. We are betting he can’t do that again, nor will the other Wolves pick up the scoring slack with two starters out. Denver is obviously backed into a corner and facing elimination – but at home – and off a loss. The Nuggets were 21-9 SU, 17-13 ATS off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +6.5ppg. Historically the Nuggets have been very good at home overall and this season they have a 29-14 record and a +5.5ppg average scoring differential. This series got chippy at the end of the last game when the Wolves scored a meaningless layup when the Nuggets had surrendered. That will add fuel to the fire for Denver at home who won’t mind running it up if they build a lead which helps when laying double-digits. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 at Toronto Raptors, 1pm ET - The Cavs jumped out to a 2-0 lead before losing game 3 in Toronto. We expect them to get back on track and take a 3-1 lead after Sunday’s day game. The Cavs are one of the best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss this season with a 23-7 SU record and an average margin of victory in those games of +7.2ppg. Cleveland had the 7th best efficiency differential on the road this season at +3.7 with an average point differential of +3.7ppg. Toronto had a positive eDIFF and points per game differential of +4.5 at home. The Raptors had a ridiculously great shooting night in Game 3 when they hit 57% overall and 61% from deep, both well above season averages. Those numbers aren’t sustainable, especially against a Cavs defense that was 8th best in opponents FG% allowed. Toronto isn’t a great 3-point shooting team to befin with so we don’t see them duplicating that performance from G3. The vets on the Cavs roster bounce back here and take a 3-1 lead in the series.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -2.5 at Orlando Magic, 1pm ET - The Pistons were upset in Game 1 of this series and lost to the Magic. In Game 2 they bounced back with a 15-point win 98-83. It was the Pistons defense that was the difference in G2 as they held the Magic to 32.5% shooting overall and 25% from beyond the arc. We are backing the Pistons again in this game and with the low number, essentially just asking them to win outright. The Pistons were 28-13 SU on the road this season with the 4th highest average margin of victory at +5.8ppg. The Magic did have a winning record at home this season of 26-15 SU but only Philadelphia had a worst average scoring differential at home than the Magic of all the playoff teams. Orlando had an average +/- at home of just 1.6ppg which ranked 18th in the league in the regular season. A great indicator of the disparity between these two teams is their season-long efficiency differentials as the Pistons ranked 3rd at +8.1 compared to the Magic at +0.7 (17th). Detroit played with a much greater sense of urgency in Game 2 and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - We like the Celtics to bounce back after a horrible showing in Game 2, a home loss to the Sixers. Boston had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night and only managed 97 points in defeat. The C’s hit 39% from the field and 26% from beyond the arc. Those numbers were significantly lower than their season averages of 46.7% and 36.5% and it’s not like Philly was great defensively as they’ve been average all season long. Philly allowed 1.156 points per possession this season, 17th most in the NBA. Boston defensively was 4th in dEFF allowing 1.127ppp. The season long offensive numbers clearly favor the Celtics too as they were 2nd in oEFF at 1.208ppp while the Sixers were 17th at 1.154ppp. Boston off a loss has been really good this season at 20-6 SU, 18-8 ATS with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.6ppg. We don’t see the rookie Edgecombe putting up a game like in did in G2 and surely don’t see another bad shooting night for the C’s. We’ll lay it with the visitor.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -2 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30pm ET - The Nuggets won Game 1 of this series then lost home court advantage and Game 2. We expect them to bounce back off that loss and get a road win in Minnesota. The Wolves played above expectations in G2 with 48% shooting from the field overall and hit 14/34 3’s for 41%. They also outrebounded the Nuggets and held Denver to 44% shooting and 37% from beyond the arc. Denver is the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA at 49.5% overall and the best 3PT shooting team at 39.4%. The Wolves are 9th in FG% and 6th in 3PT%. Anthony Edwards is not shooting well at 38.3% overall and 27.3% from Deep in this series and we doubt the role players can continue to make shots at a high rate. Minnesota was 26-15 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +3.7ppg but Denver had the same SU record of 26-15 on the road this season with a better average point differential of +4.7ppg. The Nuggets also bounced back after a loss this season with a 21-7 SU record with an average plus +8.2ppg plus/minus. Surprisingly, the road team has won 6 of the last eight meetings so it shouldn’t be a surprise if Denver wins this road contest. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -8.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 6:30 pm ET - Every home team came through on Saturday & Sunday in the first set of playoff games – but one – the Pistons – and we are all over this strong situational spot with Detroit at home. Big favorites historically do extremely well in the 1st round of the playoffs with a 101-18 SU, 70-49 ATS record dating back 12 years. The Pistons were 13-9 ATS this season when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +10.4 ppg. After an EMBARRASSING Game 1 home loss we expect the Pistons to bounce back here because if they don’t, the series is essentially over. Detroit won 60 games this season – most in the East and had an average scoring differential of +8.2ppg. They were 31-9 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +10.5ppg. Detroit is one of a handful of teams in the playoffs that were in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating and had the 3rd best efficiency Net rating overall. Orlando is 19th in oEFF and 11th in dEFF and will relax a little in this game after the upset in G1. Detroit will be out to prove a point in this Game 2 and will make a statement against the Magic who will be content to leave the Motor City with a split.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at LA Lakers, 10:30pm ET - The Lakers got a gift in the opener of this series when Kevin Durant was a late scratch before tipoff. LA had a ridiculous shooting night at 61% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers won’t be repeated in Game 2 and were clearly outliers and not the norm. Even though the Lakers were a great shooting team this season at 50.3% overall, duplicating 61% will be near impossible, especially against a Rockets D that was 6th in opponents FG% at 46.1% allowed. The Rockets were also the 7th best team in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 35.2%. The Lakers shot 36% (14th) from beyond the arc. Houston had an off-shooting night in Game 1 by hitting 38% overall and 33% from deep, both numbers below their season averages of 47.7% and 36.4%. While these two teams are near equal offensive when it comes to efficiency stats with Houston 8th and the Lakers 9th, the defenses aren’t comparable. Houston has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the league on the season the Lakers are 19th. Also, the Lakers season long oEFF numbers come mainly with Doncic and Reaves on the floor and both are out here. Houston is 22-20 SU on the road this season, so they know what it takes to win away from home and down 0-1 we expect them to bounce back here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET - The Nuggets won the opener by 11-points but the game was closer than the final result. Minnesota actually shot better at 46% compared to 44% for the Nuggets overall, hit 32% from deep versus 28% for Denver, had nearly equal TO’s and rebounds. The difference was Denver making 16 more free throws. Minnesota went cold in the 3rd quarter when they missed 14 of their first 16 field goal attempts which is highly unusual considering they are the 9th best shooting team in the NBA, 6th best from beyond the arc. Not to mention the Nuggets defense is below average. We expect the Wolves All-Star Anthony Edwards to be better in the second game after looking rusty in Game 1 after missing time at the end of the regular season. Denver obviously has the advantage offensively ranking 1st in offensive efficiency versus the Wolves ranking 12th, but Minnesota is much better defensively in comparison to the Nuggets ranking 8th in dEFF compared to 21st. This is a solid rivalry and we expect a 6-game series similar to 2024-25 when they had an amazing 7-game playoff series. This will be a 1 or 2 possession game either way.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 219.5 Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, 6:30pm ET - We love this UNDER and don’t see these two teams coming close to this number. These two teams just met on April 6th and produced 230 total points, but it took an uncharacteristic great shooting night from the Magic to get there. Orlando shoots just 46.4% on the season (21st) and 34.2% from deep which ranks 27th in the NBA. Not to mention, the Pistons hold opponents to 44.3% shooting (3rd) and 34.5% from beyond the arc (1st). Detroit had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league, allowing just 1.098 points per possession. The Magic are 11th in dEFF this season allowing 1.143ppp but didn’t play as well on that end of the floor post All Star break. Until they flipped the switch and completely shut down a good Hornets offense the other night. In their last seven games the Magic have held 5 foes to 109 or less points. In fact, in their last 5-games the Magic have the best overall dEFF in the league allowing 1.065ppp. Orlando was 19th if offensive efficiency this season and will struggle to score against this Pistons D. The Pistons were 10th in oEFF but based on what we’ve seen from Orlando recently, they too will struggle to put up points in this one. Detroit ranks 16th in eFG% since the All-Star break and have had a tougher time consistently making shots. Both teams will rely on their defenses in this one and keep this game from getting to 220. BET UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -8.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 6:30pm ET - All the home teams came through on Saturday in the first set of playoff games – and that makes them 18-2 SU 16-4 ATS dating back to the start of last years playoffs. As we wrote about in our Eastern Conference prediction, the Pistons are completely being overlooked and undervalued in our opinion in this first game. Detroit won 60 games this season – most in the East and had an average scoring differential of +8.2ppg. They were 31-9 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +10.5ppg. Detroit is one of a handful of teams in the playoffs that were in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating and had the 3rd best efficiency Net rating overall. Orlando is 19th in oEFF and 11th in dEFF and are in a tough spot here coming off that emotional beat-down of the Charlotte Hornets. Orlando played two very meaningful games this week with travel while the Pistons were home resting. Teams with this scheduling advantage (Detroit) have been very profitable in the past and this number is a bargain price. Part of the oddsmakers logic in making this line as low as they did is influenced by Cade Cunningham missing a portion of the season recently with a collapsed lung. But Cunningham has a few games under his belt and is off 3-days rest going into today. Plus, everyone just watched the Magic destroy the Hornets. Our power ratings have the Magic as the worst team in the playoffs, slightly below the Suns and Blazers who are both double-digit dogs to the Thunder and Spurs. Detroit will be out to prove a point in this opener and will make a statement against the Magic who may punt this game late if it gets out of hand. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 213.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 1pm ET - Playoff basketball is here and today we get a good one between two historical rivals in the Eastern Conference when the Sixers travel to Boston to take on the Celtics. We expect a lower scoring game similar to the three most recent meetings between these two teams. In the first meeting of the season between these two teams, they produced 233 total points and an OVER. Since then, three straight UNDERS with total points of 217, 202 and 212. Boston has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season long with the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.112 points per possession. Philly is 17th in dEFF on the season but post All-Star break they’ve been slightly better ranking 15th in defensive Net rating. This is also going to be a slower paced game with the Celtics ranking last in the league in pace of play for the year at 94.9 possessions per game. Philadelphia was the 15th slowest team in the league at 99.4. The Sixers are without one of their leading scorers in Joel Embiid and will have a tough time making perimeter shots (76ers shoot just 46.2% on the season 23rd) against a Celtics defense that held opponents to 44.2% shooting – 2nd best in the NBA. Boston isn’t a great overall shooting team themselves at 46.7% which ranks 16th this season – but they do make 3-pointers at a 36.7% clip. Philly though has the 10th best 3PT% D in the league and will make it tough for the C’s to get into a rhythm beyond the arc. This one is shaping up to be an 80’s type Bird versus Erving grinder that stays below 210.

ASA NBA play on OVER 208.5 Houston Rockets at LA Lakers, 8:30pm ET - This number is off significantly from our math model that is projecting 226.5 total points in this game. Granted, there is a dip in the O/U with the Lakers injuries but it shouldn’t be this drastic. Both teams are top 10 in offensive Net rating since the All-Star break with the Lakers 8th and Rockets both at 118.4. The Lakers have a defensive Net rating of 113.4 which is near league average and 14th. The Rockets have been slightly better ranking 10th at 112.4. Both have been slower in pace of play since the break but it’s not enough to warrant this low of a number. The Lakers don’t need a ton of possessions to score with an eFG% of 57.9% since the AS break. Houston has an eFG% of 55.8% since the break which ranks 14th. Ultimately this comes down to betting the number – neither of these two teams has had an O/U of 210 or less on ANY game this season. We understand the adjustment for the playoffs and no Luka for the Lakers but this haS been an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. BET OVER.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 6pm ET - We like the Knicks big in this one. Atlanta has put together a fun roster with some major moves this season but the Knicks have “been here and done that” already and experience will be the deciding factor in this series. The Hawks were an impressive 20-6 post All-Star break but 17 of those wins came against below .500 teams. That success has impacted the line in this game with the Hawks over-valued in this Game 1. New York had the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the league this season and was 7th in defensive efficiency. They had the 5th best efficiency differential in the league at +6.5. Atlanta was 14th in oEFF, 9th in dEFF with a differential of +2.3. The last meeting between these two teams was April 6th in Atlanta where the Hawks were favored by -1.5-points. The Hawks were on a roll at home (finished the season 14-2) and the Knicks came to town and won 108-105. Now New York is at home where they were 30-10 SU this season with an average margin of victory of +10ppg. The Hawks have been exposed when they go with their small lineup which means KAT and Robinson should have big games, especially on the glass. New York is the 3rd best rebounding team in the NBA overall, the Hawks are 12th. When it comes to shooting the Knicks have a decisive advantage there as well with the 8th best eFG% in the league compared to the Hawks 18th. We like the Knicks big in the opener. Bonus bet – Knicks in the series -1.5 games.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -3.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - I’ll be honest, as I watched the Hornets/Heat game (with dismay as we had the Hornets) my initial thought was to fade the Bugs in this play in game. But after watching the Magic it’s more than obvious this team has some major chemistry issues. The glaring thing most of you noticed when you watched the Magic play the other night was their lack of shot making. Banchero looks broken and afraid to take an 18-foot jump shot. If it weren’t for Desmond Bane, the Magic would’ve been blown out by Philly. Orlando shot just 41% overall and 26% from deep against a 76ers team that finished the season 17th in defensive efficiency. Tonight the Magic face a Charlotte team that finished the season 12th in dEFF and had the 7th best defensive Net rating in the NBA since the All-Star break. Charlotte won a wild opener against a veteran Heat team that gave them all they could handle. Tonight it should be somewhat easier for this Hornets team that had the 2nd best overall Net rating since the AS break – even better than OKC. Orlando won the 1st meeting of the season back on October 30th but then the Hornets proceeded to win three straight – all by 15+ points. Charlotte won the other night with their potential rookie of the year Knueppel going an uncharacteristic 2 of 12 from beyond the arc (42.5% season ave.) One thing I can tell from Kon as I’ve watched him all through high school here in Wisconsin is that he’ll bounce back here. Charlotte was 13-3 ATS as a road chalk this season – lay it!

ASA NBA play on OVER 221.5 Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, 10pm ET - If you are a numbers bettor like us then you realize the value in this O/U and will be on the OVER when the Warriors take on the Clippers. These two teams met on the final day of the regular season and the O/U posted was 228.5. The game finished with 225 total points being scored. There were 175 field goal attempts in the game, slightly lower than league average but enough to get to 225 total points. The Warriors didn’t shoot particularly well at 42% overall and 28% from deep. The Clippers were around their season averages of 47% and 36%. Golden State got some much needed help offensively with the return of Steph Curry who has averaged 20ppg in his last four games. They are also getting some scoring from Porzingis who has been limited for most of the season. The Warriors have scored 110 or more points in 6 of their last seven games. Golden State is not the defensive team they once were ranked 16th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.156-points per possession this season. The Clippers could be a dangerous team in the postseason with Kawhi Leonard still able to play at an elite level. They have had time to work Darious Garland into the system along with Mathurin who both came over at the trade deadline. The Clippers have the 10th best offensive net rating since the All-Star break, but rank 17th in defensive net rating. One popular Sports Book that is taking in money and tickets on the UNDER has moved their line up significantly which tells me the OVER is the call.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -5.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - I really think the Warriors window has closed. Kerr isn’t the coach he once was and father time has caught up to Draymond Green and Steph Curry. If we look at what these teams have done since the All-Star break we find the Clippers have a 16-12 SU record and a +3.9 Net differential. Golden State in that same time frame is 8-19 SU with a -5.3 Net rating. To put that into perspective, based on Net rating since the AS Break the Warriors are the 10th worst team in the NBA and have a lower rating than the Pelicans. LA has dominated this rivalry in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last 10 meetings with the GST. You’ll be surprised to know, the Clippers are the 4th best shooting team in the NBA overall and 7th in 3PT%. The Warriors defense ranks 23rd in FG% defense and 19th in 3PT% D. Conversely, the Warriors shoot just 46.1% on the season (24th) and 35.6% from beyond the arc, 20th. The Clippers are 14th in FG% defense, 22nd in 3PT% but clearly the Warriors can’t take advantage. LA is better on both ends of the court and we expect the home team to win by double digits in this one.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - Yes, the Heat and Spoelstra have a clear advantage on the bench, but this game is going to be won on the floor and quite frankly, the Hornets have been the much better team since the All-Star break. Charlotte is 18-9 SU since the break with the 2nd best Net rating in the league at +11.1, only behind the Spurs. In that same time frame the Heat have a Net rating of +2.2 which rates 16th. Charlotte has an average plus/minus at home of +10.5ppg at home since the AS break with an overall record of 9-6. Miami finished the season with a 4-8 road run and an average loss margin of -4.0ppg. Charlotte was just favored by -5.5 points at home against the Pistons and were favored by -2.5 points in late March against Boston, -2 versus the Knicks. Those three teams are considerably better than this Heat team that has underperformed all season long. Charlotte is the 3rd best 3PT shooting team in the league and the Heat struggle defending the arc with the 17th worst 3PT% D in the NBA. Lastly, the Heat/Spoelstra are getting a lot of attention in this matchup which has impacted the betting markets in favor of Miami, yet the Books refuse to move their number. It’s the changing of the guard and the Hornets come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -10.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:40pm ET - It’s the last day of the regular season which can be tough to navigate without knowing exactly who or who isn’t going to play. In this game we know the Nuggets are sitting everyone that matters. They have their top 9 players listed as out for today’s game and will end up the #4 seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs don’t technically have anything to play for either, other than sending a message to Denver who they’ll likely face in the second round of the playoffs. San Antonio is young and has a deep roster so even when they sit starters later in this game it shouldn’t matter as we’re betting they have a big lead at that point and the guys off the bench are much better than Denver’s reserves. In fact, the Spurs have the #1 bench rating in the league at +6.6, the Nuggets are 15th at -3.8. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets are 23-3 SU with the best average +/- in the league at +13.5ppg. The Nuggets are 17-8 SU in that same time frame and plus +6.8ppg. San Antonio has won 13 or their last fourteen home games by an average of +12.8ppg. Denver hasn’t been great away from home lately with a 5-6 SU record in their last eleven road games. Given who’s playing we expect this to be a very ugly game for Denver from start to finish. Lay it with the Spurs.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 243 Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - Both teams have incentives to win this game to potentially improve their standing in the Eastern Conference playoff seeding, but health/rest is nearly as important. In other words, we should have a ‘playoff like’ atmosphere AND could get shortened rotations for the starters, both factors clearly favor a lower scoring game. In the season series these two teams have scored 225, 242 and 237 total points. In the game that reached 242 total points the Hawks had an exceptional shooting night from deep hitting on 21/50 3-point attempts (42%). That number is significantly higher than their season average of 37.1% and what the Heat allow on the season at 35.8%. Both teams have played fast all season long, but their pace numbers have been slowing in recent weeks. Both teams are near average on the season in offensive efficiency with the Heat ranking 13th in offensive efficiency, the Hawks are 14th. Both are better defensively with the Hawks ranking 8th in dEFF, the Heat rank 12th. Given the history of this series with 10 straight games finishing with 242 or less points and the playoff intensity, we expect a lower scoring affair in the low 230’s. Our model is projecting 232.3. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225.5 LA Clippers at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10pm ET - There have been several games in the final stretch of this regular season that have had playoff like intensity which has led to some lower scoring games. Tonight we have a situation where these two teams are fighting for the 8 seed in the Western Conference with the Clippers 41-39 SU on the season, the Blazers are 40-40 SU. The Clippers are 2-1 in the season series which would be the tiebreaker between these two teams. We won’t get involved in a Side but we do like the Total UNDER the number. The Blazer/Clippers just played in L.A. on March 31st and produced 218 total points. The O/U on that game was 225.5 which makes tonight’s number a bargain considering the playoff atmosphere. In fact, all three meetings this season have resulted in less than 222 total points. Since the All-Star break the Blazers have been locked in defensively with the 4th best defensive net rating in the NBA at 109.4. The Clippers are 14th at 114. In their last 10 games the Clippers D has been even better with a DNR of 112.2, tied for 10th best. The Clippers just allowed 128-points to the Thunder in their most recent game so expect a much better effort on that end of the court tonight. Prior to that game the Clippers had allowed 114 or less points in 7 of eight games, 103 or less in 3 of those games. Portland gave up 112 in their last game at San Antonio but if you look at their last 18 games they’ve held 15 of those teams to 114 or less points and 11 of those teams didn’t reach 110. The Blazers have a really strong UNDER record at home this season of 24-15 and they’ve played 12 of 16 divisional games UNDER as well. They’ll play at a slower pace here as they are trending down in tempo in their last 5 games. The Clippers are 21st in pace of play in their last 5 games as well so this should be a deliberate, defensive showdown. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7:10pm ET - The Pistons literally have nothing to play for. They have locked up the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and can’t catch OKC or San Antonio in the West for hosting the Finals. Charlotte on the other hand has everything to play for as they would love to climb up the standing of the play in games and potentially get a home game plus play one game to get in and not two. Detroit will rest starters in this game and we doubt we’ll see much of Cunningham with him just returning to action after a collapsed lung. Let’s not forget, the Hornets have been one of the best teams in the league since the All-Star break with a 17-8 SU record and the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league at +12.2. Only the Spurs and Thunder have played better since the break. Charlotte has won 9 of their last fourteen home games, Detroit is 8-6 SU on the road since the AS game. The Hornets are coming off a loss in Boston most recently which also puts them in a favorable situation. Charlotte is 23-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with an average MOV of +3.8ppg. Detroit is off a big win over the Bucks and we doubt they’ll show the Hornets much in this game considering they may face them in the 1st round of the playoffs. This is also the 3rd and final regular season meeting between these teams and is a double revenge spot for the Hornets. The Pistons won the first two meetings by a combined 32 points and Charlotte is out for payback. Playing with double revenge the Hornets get the call in this one! We will lay it here with Charlotte.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - The Celtics are going to rest Derrick White and Jaylen Brown on Thursday against the Knicks. Yes, the C’s are deep but we’re not sure they’re going to be able to beat the Knicks down 2 starters. The Knicks have a little more incentive to win here so they maintain the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston has been great on the road this season with a 26-14 SU record, but the Knicks have been fantastic at home with a 28-9 record and an average margin of victory of +10.4ppg. New York has a slightly better record in division games at 12-3 SU compared to the Celtics 10-5 SU mark. The home team has covered 5 of the last six meetings between these two rivals, 2 of three this season. New York nearly lost at home the other night to the Hawks and should play with a greater sense of urgency in this divisional showdown. The Celtics look like they are more concerned with health heading into the postseason. Lay it with New York.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - The line on this game is the ‘tell’ as Cleveland should be a bigger favorite at home over the Hawks. Clearly the oddsmakers are looking to bait some bettors into backing the Cavs at a cheap price but we won’t bite. The facts of the matter are this. Cleveland is in a very favorable position in the Eastern Conference right now sitting 4th in the standings and hosting in the 1st round (potentially this same Hawks team). They trail the Knicks by 1 game but don’t want to move up so they can avoid the Celtics in the second round and play the Cunningham-less Pistons to try and make the EC Finals. Atlanta meanwhile has a lot more to play for as they sit 5th in the East but could slip into the play in tourney with a few losses. Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the Knicks on Sunday (unfortunately we had them) where they led for a majority of the game before blowing it late. We expect a very focused effort here form a Hawks team that is playing well right now. Atlanta has the 7th best Net rating over the last 10-game period at +9.7 compared to the Cavs +4.7. The biggest contributing factor has been their defense which is 7th in defensive Net rating over that same stretch of games. The Cavs are 17th. Atlanta is the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Cavs 3PT defense is 26th. We expect a motivated Hawks team to win this game rather easily with the Cavs potentially resting everyone.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - The T’Wolves have incentive to win here as they would lock up a top 6 seed in the Western Conference and avoid the play in tournament. The Pacers are by far the easiest win on the remaining schedule so expect the Wolves to go all out here so they can rest after tonight. Indiana had a slight bump in their play recently, but injuries have taken a massive toll on their roster as they’ll dress just 9 players tonight and are missing their top 5 scorers. We also like the fact that Minnesota is off 3 straight losses, including a home defeat most recently to the Hornets. Looking back at Minnesota’s schedule they are just 14-11 SU in their last 25 games BUT the eleven losses all came against current playoff bound teams. In their last two games against non-playoff teams or teams on the Pacers level, they have a 30-point win in Dallas and a 36-point win over the Jazz. As we mentioned, the Pacers had some of their regulars back in the lineup in recent weeks and played well, but in their last two games they’ve suffered two double-digit defeats. Indiana has the second worst record in the NBA at 18-60, just one more win than the Wizards who have 17. Minnesota should take advantage of the Pacers porous defense that allows opponents to hit 49% of their field goal attempts overall and 35.7% of their 3PT attempts. The Wolves are the 9th best shooting team in the league overall and 6th best in 3PT%. Lay it here with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - We will ride the red hot Hawks in this game and predict a solid win by the home team in this Eastern Conference showdown. If you’ve been sleeping on Atlanta then you probably don’t know the Hawks have won 13 straight home games and 18 of their last 20 games overall. What’s most impressive in that stretch of games is the fact that 16 of those eighteen wins have come by 10+ points. In their 13-game home winning streak they have an average margin of victory +18.3ppg. The Knicks have been an average road team this season with a 21-19 SU record with an average +/- in those games of +2.6ppg. New York is .500 in their last 10 road games with an average MOV of +1.7ppg – so nothing to scare us off taking the Hawks at home. If we dig a little deeper into the Knicks last 10 away games we also find the 5 wins have come against: Memphis, Brooklyn, Indiana, Utah and Denver – just one team with a winning record. The 5 losses in that same stretch of games came at: Houston, OKC, Charlotte, LA Clippers and LA Lakers. The Knicks sit 3rd in the East and only 1-game ahead of the Cavs in 4th place but they may prefer the four seed to avoid Boston in the conference finals. Atlanta is 5th in the East but trail the Cavs by 4-games so they’re not moving up in the standings but they certainly don’t want to slip down with three teams just 2-games behind them. The Hawks are clearly playing better right now with the 7th best efficiency differential over the last 5-games at +14.5 compared to the Knicks eDIFF of +1.8 in that same span of games. We will trust the Hawks here at home to get a win over the Knicks.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3.5 at Golden State Warriors 10pm ET - The Warriors are not the same Warriors that it was in the past and to be honest, and are barely above the likes of Memphis, New Orleans and Dallas, even though they have 10 more wins on the season. Golden State is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games and the 4 wins came against Washington twice, Brooklyn by 3-points and Dallas in OT. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since March 5th and coincidentally that team was Houston by 2-points in OT. Golden State is pretty much locked into the 10th seed in the Western Conference and are just trying to stay somewhat healthy. Houston on the other hand still has a shot at the 4 seed which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. Houston has won 5 straight games and 7 of their last nine overall. One of those losses came recently in Minnesota where they were a 2-point favorite. The loss isn’t the interesting factor in that game, it’s the spread of -2 which is obviously slightly lower than today’s spread against a far worse GST team. These two teams played on this court in November with the Rockets winning 104-100 and that was without Durant playing for Houston, while the Warriors had Butler, Curry and Green in the lineup. Houston has the 7th best average +/- over the last 10-games of +10.4ppg. Golden State has an average +/- scoring differential of minus -7.3ppg over that same 10-game period. Houston is healthy and will win this game by 4+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 238.5 Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10pm ET - Indiana is doing one thing really well right now and that’s shooting the basketball. The Pacers have the best eFG% in the NBA over the last 5-games at 62.5%, and last 10 games at 62.2%. Overall, the Pacers offenses has been dialed in with the 6th best offensive rating over that same 10-game stretch. Defense, not so much as they rank 29th in defensive rating in their last 10. Indiana is also playing up-tempo with the 4th fastest pace of play over the last 5-games. Indiana just played the Hornets, and the two teams produced 237 total points. Charlotte is better defensively than the Cavs, play slower with the two teams being near-equal offensively. As far as the Cavs are concerned, they will be well rested here with their last game being April 2nd. When the Cavs have played with 2-3 days rest they have gone OVER in 6 of nine games with an average OVER of +13.8ppg. Cleveland scored 120+ in 7 of their last twelve games and come into this game with the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.190-points per possession. They play at an above average pace and have a defensive efficiency rating of 1.149ppp allowed which ranks 14th. On the subject of defense, the Cavs have allowed 120+ in 4 of their last six games. In the three meetings this season these two teams produced 229, 254 and 236 total points. With the current trends of each we expect a game well into the 240’s on Sunday.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - The 76ers are playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second night of a back-to-back so it’s unlikely Embiid suits up for Detroit tonight. That means more spacing for the 76ers offense, better ball movement and a faster pace without waiting for the big guy to lumber down the floor. Last night the 76ers played a slower, more deliberate game with Embiid, we anticipate tonight’s game will be more like Wednesday’s game at Washington where the 76ers took 99 field goal attempts and played in space. In their last 5 games the Sixers have the 4th best offensive efficiency in the league at 1.262-points per possession and an eFG% of 60% which is also 4th best. Detroit will need to score in this game too for us to cash this ticket and we expect them to put up 115 or better with an offense at averages 117.5ppg on the season. Detroit is 10th in oEFF for the year averaging 1.175-points per possession with the 5th best team FG% at 48.2%. Both teams are around league average in pace of play for the season, Philly has been much faster in their last 5-games, Detroit slightly slower than league average. Detroit is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, Philly ranks 17th in dEFF. Both teams are playing worse on that end of the floor in their past 5-games though with higher-than-normal points per possession allowed. We expect this game to finish closer to the league average of 231 total points. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10pm ET - Typically, I wouldn’t play on a team like the 76ers coming off a 153 point outburst but today I’ll make an exception. The Sixers are the much more desperate team here sitting 6th in the Eastern Conference but basically tied with Toronto and only 1 game ahead of Charlotte in the 7th or 8th seed. That will mean a play-in situation for Philly if they slip in the ranks. Minnesota is comfortably in the 6th seed in the West and may be content to stay there in the first round to play the Lakers instead of moving up to the 5 seed to face the Nuggets. Minnesota is coming off a tough game last night in Detroit and will be playing their 3rd straight road game. Philly is coming off a blowout win over the Wizards on Wednesday 153-131 and have now won 5 of their last seven games. The 76ers have Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Oubre Jr back in the lineup and look considerably better in recent games. Looking at each teams last 5 games we find the 76ers have a better Net rating at +4.1 compared to the Wolves +2.7. The big difference in this game will come down to shooting and getting buckets. Philly has the 5th best eFG% over the last 5 games with a healthy roster (sans Embiid) while the Wolves have the 30th or worst eFG% in that same span of games. We like the rest advantage and the home team laying a short number. Buy Philadelphia!

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +16 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - This is a solid scheduling situation to back the Pacers and grab the generous points against the Hornets in Charlotte tonight. The Hornets are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night, playing their 3rd in four nights AND 5th game in 7 days. PLUS, they have huge games looming in Minnesota, at Boston, home against Detroit then at New York. We can’t imagine the Hornets will be ‘up’ tonight to face the 18-win Pacers. Indiana is doing one thing really well right now and that’s shooting the basketball. The Pacers have the best eFG% in the NBA over the last 5-games at 64.3%, and last 10games at 61.3%. Overall, the Pacers have played well above expectations in recent weeks with the 10th best Net rating in the NBA at +6.3. That’s not much different than the Hornets +9.0 Net rating in that same span of games. Indiana has won two straight road game and has a negative average point differential of minus -10ppg in their last nine road games. A great comparable for this game which tells us the line is too high is the Pacers recent game in San Antonio where they were essentially an underdog by the same number of +16. Charlotte is playing well, but they are not on the Spurs level in the league right now. Charlotte does have some blowout home wins in recent weeks over bad teams, but this is going to be a really tough spot for them. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - This is a great situational spot to fade the Spurs and back the Clippers. San Antonio is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back as they played at Golden State Wednesday night. This is also the Spurs 3rd game in four nights, 5th game in nine days. The Spurs are on a blistering run right now but four of their last 9 wins have come against non-playoff qualifiers. We like the fact that the Clippers are off an upset home loss to the Blazers two nights ago (thank you Portland) and are focused here with playoff positioning on the line. Granted, the Spurs have incentive to win also, but catching the Thunder is a lot to ask considering OKC would need to lose several games and that’s not likely to happen. LA had won 5 straight games prior to the loss. The two prior meetings between these two teams were both decided by just 4-point each. The Clippers have the rest advantage, are highly motivated and have an 8-3 ATS record as a home dog this season. Inflation in the number and desperation have us on the Clippers.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - These two teams are eerily similar and with the Suns now having Dillon Brooks back in the lineup we like them to keep this game close or win outright. In each teams most recent 5-games these two teams rank 3rd (Hornets) and 5th (Suns) in Net Rating. Charlotte has a Net rating of +14.8 in their last 5 games, the Suns are at +13.0. Rebound rate in also near even in that stretch of games as is eFG%. When if comes to efficiency differentials only almost dead even at +13.6 and +13.5. Charlotte was racking up wins left and right until their schedule stiffened in recent games as they lost to both Philadelphia and Boston as small home favorites. The Hornets are 4-5 SU in their last nine games at home against a team that is currently in a playoff position. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five games and is 4-2 ATS their last six as a dog. They are coming off a 4-point loss to the Magic on Tuesday night and have a 20-13 ATS record this season when coming off an ‘L’. Charlotte is a solid 11-7 ATS at home as a chalk but this will be a tough cover against a Phoenix team that recently beat them by 12 in the Desert. The key advantage in this match up is the Suns 3PT shooting (9th in 3PT%) going up against a Hornets 3PT% D that is 18th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the league, but the Suns have the 2nd best 3PT% defense allowing just 34.6%. This has the feel of a 1 or 2-point game either way. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +17.5 at Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - Let’s start by saying this…I hate taking the Bucks right now as they are a very hard team to trust with Doc Rivers running the show. But, I’ll make an exception tonight as the number is higher than it should be and we expect Milwaukee to keep it relatively close and within the spread. Both teams played last night with the Rockets winning a huge game over the Knicks 111-94. Houston starters logged heavy minutes in the win with Smith Jr, Durant and Thompson all playing 34+ minutes. Milwaukee got a much needed win over the Mavericks 123-99. If you have been following the Bucks, Rivers is employing a new strategy and playing everyone around 20+ minutes so the back-to-back tonight shouldn’t be a factor. This is the largest spread the Rockets have been favored by all season long and while we feel they’ll win this game, we don’t think it’s going to be the blowout the oddsmakers are suggesting. On the season the Rockets have an average plus/minus of +4.5ppg, the Bucks are negative at -6.0ppg, both within reason for tonight’s game and this pointspread. Houston is 26-10 SU on their home court with an average margin of victory of +6.48ppg, the Bucks are 13-24 SU away from home with an average MOV of minus -7.7ppg. The O/U on this game is set at 218.5 which suggests a lower scoring game which makes covering this big number tough for Houston. We will grab the points with the Bucks.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 249 Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - This is one of the highest totals on the board today and we like the value after the move with the UNDER. The Bulls have some controversy surrounding them with the recent release of Jaden Ivey after his religious comments and the NBA. The NBA ratings and popularity continue to plummet with the failed leadership and their policies. I wonder if the NBA would have allowed the Spurs to waive Wemby or another superstar had they made those comments. In any regard, that certainly has to be a distraction for players on the Bulls roster heading into tonight’s game. The meat of this handicap is simple. We have two teams that play fast and don’t play defense, but both rank 23rd or worse in offensive efficiency ratings (Pacers 27th, Bulls 24th). The Pacers rank 27th in overall FG%, 19th in 3PT% and are coming off an unusually great shooting games against the Heat when they hit 53/92 FGA’s (58%) and 18/39 3’s (46%) and we don’t see them duplicating that two games in a row. Chicago is trending the wrong direction with their shooting at 34.4% from Deep (23rd) and 47.3% overall from the field which ranks 19th in the NBA over the past 5 games. The value in the number is key here as the last two games between these two teams had O/U’s of 234.5 and 235.5 and the two games finished with 223 and 225 total points. In fact, all 3 meetings this season have stayed UNDER as have 6 straight in the series. Our model projects 235.3 total points being scored. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +5.5 at LA Clippers, 11:10pm ET - This game has big implications for each team as the Clippers hold the 8th spot in the Western Conference while the Blazers are 9th. The Clippers won both meetings with Portland earlier this season but that was in late October and late December and a lot has changed since then, especially for L.A. Looking at each teams efficiency stats we find they have the 2nd (Clippers) and 3rd best eDIFF’s over the last 5 games with both teams playing at a high level. Looking at that same 5-game period, the Blazers have the lowest or best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.013-points per possession, which is a major factor when getting these many points in a game. If we go back to each teams previous 10 games, we find the Blazers are playing at a higher level with the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league compared to the Clippers 12th. The Blazers work on the offensive glass in recent weeks has been significantly better than the Clippers too with Portland ranking 3rd in offensive rebound rate compared to the Clippers ranking 23rd. We like those added possessions and scoring possibilities for Portland in this matchup. Portland has covered 4 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court. We will grab the points with the Trailblazers.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222 Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - These two teams are in playoff mode with the Celtics 2nd in the Eastern Conference, the Hawks currently sit 6th. The Hawks are cooking right now with a 13-2 SU record in their last 15 games with the second-best Net rating over that stretch of games at +12.2. Boston is no slouch over that same stretch of games with an 11-4 SU record with a Net rating of +7.1. The Hawks have been shooting lights out with the 5th best eFG% of 57.5% over their last 15 games. The Celtics rank 14th in offensive efficiency over that same 10 game period. Atlanta is on a 6-2 OVER streak largely due to an offensive that has scored 123 or more points in six of those eight. One of the games they didn’t put up great offensive numbers was a few nights ago in Boston when they scored 102. Atlanta had a bad shooting night, especially from deep when they hit just 15/42. Boston just put up 119 points against a Thunder defense that is the best in the league and have scored 117 or more in 4 of their last seven games. Boston plays slow, but the Hawks counter with the 3rd fastest paced offense in the NBA. In the three meetings between these two teams this season they produced 211, 223 and 238 total points. The C’s are coming off a game on Sunday and fatigue could be a factor on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks will shoot better on their home court than they did in Boston last week. We expect this game to be closer to the league average (231) than below it….BET OVER!

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, 7:10pm ET - We are betting a value number here based on the three other meetings between these two teams this season. The first three games of this series all had O/U numbers greater than 230 and now we get a number in the mid-220’s. The most recent meeting between the two teams finished with 212 total points but the other two clashes finished with 228 and 235 (in regulation) points. It looks like the Pelicans will have either Murphy or Murray or potentially both, which clearly impacts their offense in a positive way. Murphy is averaging just under 22ppg, Murray is chipping in 17.2ppg. Houston has the 10th most efficient offense in the league at 1.175-points per possession. In their last 5 games they are averaging 118.2ppg with an eFG% of 55.7%. The Pels defense is below average on the season (24th) and in recent games (allowing 1.190ppp last 5 games) when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings. Houston is the 2nd slowest paced team on the season but have been playing at a slightly faster rate in their past 5 games. Again, this number is the main contributor in our wager as we feel Vegas had it right in their last meeting with an O/U of 230.5. This game creeps over the 225.5 today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +1.5 -125 at Charlotte Hornets, 6:10 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they look to improve seedings in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are the league up-and-comers, while the overlooked Celtics has shocked everyone with their 49-24 record this season. The Celtics will be out for payback here as the Hornets beat them in Boston earlier this month 118-89. Boston had an unusually poor shooting night of 38% overall and just 28% from deep. Those numbers came against a slightly better than average Hornets defense so the logical regression would be for Boston to make more shots here. Plus, the Hornets are coming off a big game yesterday against the 76ers, a 4-point home loss. In fact, the Bugs have played two very big games in a row (faced the Knicks on Thursday) and will have a tough time getting up for the 3rd big game in a row, especially without rest. There is no question the Hornets are playing fantastic basketball right now with a 13-4 SU record in their last 17 games with one of the best +/-‘s in the league, but then why are they a dog in this game? Boston is 23-13 SU on the road this season with the 3rd highest margin of victory of +7.3ppg. Despite their success, the Hornets are only 19-17 SU on their home court this season, 6-14 SU as a home underdog. Boston finds a way to win this road game.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, 6pm ET - We like the extra value in this number now that it sits as high as it is with movement based on the 76ers health and their most recent game against the Bulls when they scored 157 points. This game has massive playoff implications for both teams and we are betting the defense and pace of play will have the greatest impact in the outcome. In their most recent 15 games the Hornets have nearly identical defensive net rating numbers as the Thunder who are the best defensive team in the league. Philly recently played the Thunder and that game finished with 226 total points with the Sixers managing just 103. Granted that was without Embiid for Philadelphia but his added offensive production also means a slower tempo with him in the game. Philly is essentially an ‘average’ team this season statistically as they rank 16th in offensive efficiency, 17th in defensive efficiency. Charlotte has borderline metrics that suggest they could win it all this season with the 12th best season long defensive efficiency and 4th best oEFF rating (teams in the top 11 of both historically win the NBA Championship). The last meeting between these two teams resulted in 223 total points which ties into a trend in this series with 8 of the last ten meetings resulting in less points than today’s O/U. In a playoff like atmosphere we expect a less than average scoring game with 227 total points being scored.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -10.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - This line opened with the Blazers -10 and despite more money and bets coming in on Dallas the line has ticked up which is a solid indicator for us to be on Portland. The Blazers have all the incentives in the world to keep playing hard as they sit 9th in the Western Conference but could move up to 7th or 8th with a solid finish to the season. Dallas has nothing to play for other than a better draft position by tanking down the stretch. Portland has won 5 of their last six games with three of those coming by 28 or more points. They put up 134 and 130 in their last two games against similar teams to the Mavs in the Bucks and Nets. The Mavericks are 2-14 SU in their last sixteen games and have the 5th worst Net rating over the last 15 games at minus -12.1. In comparison, the Blazers have the 4th best Net rating over their last 5-games. One thing we know for sure is that the Blazers will show up and play hard tonight. We’d be surprised if Dallas does the same. Bet the home team minus the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 224.5 Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, 7:40pm ET - These two teams are in playoff mode with the Celtics 2nd in the Eastern Conference, the Hawks currently sit 5th. The Hawks are cooking right now with a 14-1 SU record in their last 15 games with the second best Net rating over that stretch of games at +14.4. Boston is no slouch over that same stretch of games with a 10-5 SU record with a Net rating of +6.8. The Hawks have been shooting lights out with the 6th best eFG% of 56.9% over their last 15 games. In the last 10 games they own the best eFG% in the NBA at 57.3%. The Celtics rank 6th in eFG% over that same 10 game period. Atlanta is on a 5-1 OVER streak largely due to an offensive that has scored 124, 135, 126, 146 and 130 in those games that went OVER the total. Boston just put up 119 points against a Thunder defense that is the best in the league and have scored 117 or more in 4 of their last five games. Boston plays slow, but the Hawks counter with the 3rd fastest paced offense in the NBA. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they produced 223 and 238 total points. The O/U’s in those previously mentioned games were 230.5 and 232.5 so you can see for yourself the value we are getting in today’s line of 224.5. We expect this game to be closer to the league average (231) than below it….BET OVER!

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -115 vs NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - Instead of laying the 1 or 1.5 points, we will select the money line option here as it is available as low as a -115 price. The Knicks currently sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets are 10th and both are fighting for better seeding. Despite the Knicks having 10 more wins than the Hornets, Charlotte is playing better at this point and time in the season. The Hornets are 22-6 SU their last 28 games overall, 12-3 SU their last 15 games with the best average +/- in the league over that stretch of +15.9ppg. In that same span of games, they have the best Net rating in the league at +16.2. Even when you compare the season efficiency differentials the Knicks have a slight advantage of +6.9 compared to the Hornets +4.7 and Charlotte got off to a horrible start to the season. New York has won 7 straight games but take a look at who those wins have come against: Utah, Indiana, Golden State, Brooklyn, Washington and New Orleans, literally the worst teams in the league other than GST. New York won the first two meetings of the season but those were back in late November, early December. With the addition of Coby White, the Hornets added depth to their backcourt and are playing as well as anyone in the East right now. Take the home team in this one and watch it be a double-digit victory.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9:40pm ET - We faded the Rockets successfully in their last game against the Bulls and it paid off nicely with Chicago winning outright as an +8-point dog. Houston hasn’t been great on the road recently with a 2-5 SU record away from home in their last seven. One of those two wins came against the Wizards who are the worst team in the NBA. Minnesota is playing without Anthony Edwards and actually playing well. The ball movement on offense has been much better and everyone is contributing. Minnesota is coming off a win in Boston a few nights ago and are 4-2 SU in their last six games. The Wolves have won 7 of their last ten games at home and have an average margin of victory at home in March of +5.3ppg. These two teams have near identical offensive/defensive efficiency numbers overall on the season, but we are getting the Wolves at home as a dog when clearly they should be the favorite here, even without ANT. Minnesota has been a home dog just 11 times in the last two seasons and they have a +5.5ppg scoring differential in those games. This is a massive game for both teams when it comes to playoff seedings with Minnesota 5th and Houston 6th but just a .5 game back. Bet Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -4.5 at Phoenix Suns, 11pm ET - The Nuggets are as healthy as they’ve been all season and we predict they’ll be a tough out in the West come playoff time. Phoenix is still missing a few key components with Brooks and Williams out and several others listed as day-to-day as we write this. The Suns are 7th in the West, 3.5 games behind the Rockets in the 6th seed but 4.5 games up on the Clippers. Denver sits 4th in the West (key for home court in the 1st round) but barely ahead of the Rockets and tied with the Wolves. Phoenix had lost 5 straight games before beating the Raptors at home 120-98. The Suns shot insanely well at 52% overall and hit 18/40 3-pointers. Denver has won 2 straight games and 3 of their last four, and 5 of their last seven. Four of those wins came against current playoff teams, one of which was against the Spurs in San Antonio. Denver has owned this series with 4 straight wins dating back to the end of last season. One of the Nuggets wins this season was in Phoenix by 18-points. A great indicator of how these teams are currently playing is their efficiency differentials with the Nuggets at +8.3 in their last 5 games, the Suns are -0.4 eDIFF. We will lay the short number with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +8.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - This time of the season it’s very hard to back a bad team like Chicago but we’ll make an exception today given the scheduling circumstances. Houston is coming off a very tough home stretch which saw them play two games against the Lakers, one versus Atlanta and then another, last second win over the Heat. Now they are travelling to Chicago to face a 28-42 SU Bulls team, and they have a massive game on deck in Minnesota on Wednesday. The Bulls meanwhile have been March 19th or last Thursday and could be getting some key pieces back tonight. Chicago is a respectable 17-20 SU on their home court and 12-10 ATS as a home dog with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg which is good enough for a cover in this one. On that note, the Rockets are 11-16 ATS as a road chalk with an average MOV of +4.0ppg. Chicago is 9-5 ATS with 2 or more days of rest this season. In their last game the Bulls were +9.5 at home against a similar Cavs team which finished with a 110-115 score and cover for the home team. We like the situation for the Bulls to hand around in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic, 7pm ET - This is a great spot for a struggling Magic offense to get back on track against a Pacers defense that is one of the worst in the league. The season long metrics for the Pacers D isn’t good as they allow 1.190-points per possession. In their last 5-games they have been ATROCIOUS allowing 1.303ppp – by far the worst in the league. Indiana has allowed 130+ points in 5 of their last ten games and 123 or more in 8 of ten. They have been better offensively and recently got a boost with the return of Paskal Siakam and his 24ppg. Indiana has scored 119 in their last 2 games and 119 or more in 3 of their last four games and one of those games was against a Spurs defense that allows the 7th fewest points per game in the NBA. Orlando was one of the better defenses in the league a year ago but they’ve slipped on that end of the court currently ranking 10th in dEFF on the season and 19th in their last 5 games. The Magic have allowed 122 or more in 4 of their last seven games and 113 or more in 6 of seven. Orlando has struggled offensely in their last 5 games but now against a faster paced Pacers team that isn’t playing any defense we should see them get to 125 or more in this one. When these two teams last met on this court they produced 262 total points. It won’t get that high tonight but it will get OVER 232 based on our metrics.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Washington Wizards at NY Knicks, 7:30pm ET - These two teams met in early February and produced 233 total points. We expect a similar output today. The Wizards defense is atrocious and they’ve been hemorrhaging points on that end of the court. The Wiz just allowed 132 to the Thunder, 117 to the Pistons, 130 to Detroit and 125 to the Warriors in their four most recent games. They have allowed 122+ points in 8 of their last ten games. Washington is tied with the Jazz for the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.220-points per possession. Speaking of Utah, the Knicks recently played the Jazz and scored 134 points in a game that finished with 251 total points. The Knicks are the 3rd most efficient offense on the season averaging 1.193-points per possession. New York won’t need a ton of possessions to put up a big offensive number in this game with the 5th best 3PT% in the league facing a Wizards defense that allows 36.3% shooting by opponents, the 22nd highest number in the NBA. The OVER has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +2 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This is a great scenario to back the Heat on the road in what we expect to be a win by a comfortable margin. Houston played last night and beat the Hawks at home. That win came after a pair of losses at home to the Lakers, who coincidentally just beat this Heat team in Miami. Not only is Houston playing the 2nd night of a back to back, but they are also playing their 4th games in six days. When playing without rest the Rockets have a 5-6 ATS record this season and a negative scoring differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston is one of the worst home favorites this season at 13-19 ATS, Miami as a road dog is 14-11 ATS. Miami is nearly back to full strength with Herro and Powell back in the lineup and are desperate to move up to the 6th seed or better in the East to avoid the play-in scenario. The Heat have lost 3-straight including the other night when they lost by 8-points to the Lakers who made 34/45 free throws compared to the Heat's 18/22. Houston allows the 25th most points off turnovers this season, ranks 22nd in opponents 2nd chance points and are average or 15th in fast break points allowed. Miami is the fastest paced team in the league and rank top 7 offensively in points off turnovers, 2nd chance points and transition scoring. These two teams recently met in Miami with the Heat winning by 10-points, 115-105. We expect a similar margin of victory in this game by the Heat in Houston.

ASA NBA play on OVER 229 Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10pm ET - The Celtics are steamrolling to the playoffs with a 17-5 SU streak and face a Memphis team in full tank mode with a 1-8 SU record in their last nine games. We will use a hockey term to describe the current state of the Grizzlies defense and that’s a ‘sieve’ as they’ve allowed 122+ points in 6 of their last eight games. Of the span of the last 5 games the Grizzlies defense is 29th in defensive efficiency allowing an average of 1.246-points per possession. On the season the Grizz have the 24th rated FG% defense overall allowing 47.6% shooting by opponents but in their last 5-games they are allowing 51.1%. Memphis allows a ton of 3-point attempts and makes and not many teams do that better than the Celtics. Boston is 10th in 3PT%, 3rd in 3PT attempts and makes. Boston continues to be highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.198-points per possession in their last 5-games and 1.204ppp on the season. Boston has put up 120 in their two prior games against the Warriors and Suns who are both significantly better than Memphis on that end of the court. Looking at the Grizz most recent games they’ve given up 126 to a Nets offense that is atrocious, 139 to an injury riddled 76ers team, 120 to Dallas and 132 to the Bulls. Boston is getting into the mid-120’s at a minimum which means we need the Grizzlies to get to 110 or more which they’ve done in 21 of their last 22 games. We expect plenty of points from these two teams to get to 230+ in this one. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8pm ET - This sets up perfectly with the Heat desperate for a win – at home – off a pair of losses and now facing a Lakers team off a big game last night in Houston. L.A. has played three monster games in a row, two against the Rockets, one versus Denver, and will have a tough time finding their legs for this non-conference showdown. You may be surprised to know the Lakers are just 6-9 SU as a road dog this season with an average loss margin of minus -7.9ppg. Miami is 23-12 SU at home on the season and have won 7 of their last eight in South Beach. The Heat have the 6th best average point differential at home of +6.1ppg on the year. The Lakers are playing well right now but this isn’t a great situation for them and their defense (20th in efficiency ratings) will have a tough time slowing down the Heat who play at the fastest rate in the league and rank 13th in offensive efficiency. Let’s face it, the Lakers still have a big target on their backs and the Heat will be up for this one and back to near 100% health with Herro and Powell back in the lineup. Miami is 17-13 SU off a loss with an average +/- of +3.1ppg. We will lay it here with Miami.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -10.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7:30pm ET - There is a valid reason for this number being inflated like it is but based on our calculations it’s still not high enough to not take the Blazers. The Pacers are in a horrible situation here coming off a game last night in New York. The Knicks are a big rival and the Pacers put everything into that game and still got blown out 136-110. Now the Pacers travel home to face a rested Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives. Indiana will be playing their 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days and 5th in seven days. All this with a depleted roster. Portland was just favored by -11-points at Brooklyn and won by 9-points, but the Nets weren’t in this bad scheduling spot. Indiana 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS with an average loss margin of -12.7ppg when playing without rest. Portland has the 7th best efficiency differential in the NBA over the last 5 games, Indiana has the 6th worst. The Blazers win this game by 15+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics, 7:10pm ET - These same two teams met in Golden State on February 19th and produced 231 total points. We see a similar output in tonight’s game. The Warriors trademark defense in the past simply isn’t where it needs to be as they sit 14th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.146-points per possession. Last season the Warriors finished the year ranked 7th best in the league allowing 1.117ppp. Golden State sits 18th in opponents FG% allowing 47.3% and allows foes to hit 35.3% of their 3-point attempts. Boston doesn’t have a great team FG% overall but they take the 2nd most 3-pointers in the league and make the 3rd most at 15.4 per game. Boston ranks 11th in 3PT% at 36.2% and has the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.204-points per possession. Golden State doesn’t have great overall offensive numbers on the season, ranking 14th in oEFF but in their last 5 games they’ve been significantly better averaging 1.185-points per possession. A big reason why we’ve seen an improvement in their oEFF is the increase of +3.5 offensive rebounds per game compared to their season average. Boston just played Phoenix and the two teams combined for 232 total points. In comparison, the Suns are better defensively than GST, about even offensively and play at a much slower pace. The Warriors recently faced a Knicks team that is similar to Boston and the game finished with 217 total points with the two teams scoring an unusual 43 total points in the 2nd Q. Our model is projecting 223.3 total points in this one. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 228.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - Current betting markets and indicators tell us this game is going OVER the total. That along with some solid statistical support including our math model projecting 233.6 total points being scored. These two teams recently met on this same court and produced 234 total points. In the two other meetings this season they combined for 224 and 231 points. In the most recent clash (Feb 25th) the Cavaliers played without their three leading scorers: Mitchell, Harden and Mobley and still put up 116 against the Bucks. Milwaukee was still without Giannis at that time too and scored 118 against the Cavs. Cleveland has played in three straight higher scoring games with total points of 250, 243 and 250 total points. Milwaukee’s defense has gotten steadily worse under Doc Rivers through the past two years and in their last 7 games they’ve allowed 122 or more points 5 times, 129 or more 3 times. Prior to Doc taking over the Bucks were a top 5 defensive efficiency team in the league, today they rank 24th in dEFF allowing 1.179-points per possession. Cleveland has slipped a little defensively also compared to last season (8th dEFF 1.122ppp) sitting 12th in dEFF allowing 1.143ppp. These are two top 9 shooting teams in the league with the Bucks hitting 48% from the field overall (7th) and 38.7% from deep (2nd), the Cavs rank 9th in FG% at 47.8% and 12th in 3PT% at 36.1%. That means we don’t need a high possession game to get to this O/U tonight. This game is going to get into the 230’s in the second half of the 4th quarter, bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9:40pm ET - Everyone knows the Lakers are a public team and one of the NBA’s casual bettors-backed teams. Today they are getting a large volume of tickets on them, but the money is coming in on Houston. We like this low number with the home team in a pivotal showdown for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. The Lakers currently sit 3rd in the West, the Rockets are 4th, just a half game behind them. Denver and Minnesota are only 2-games behind Houston which is rather important for home court in the 1st round of the playoffs. The Lakers have won 8 of their last ten games but 7 of those came at home. The Lakers have had a favorable stretch of games with this being only their 4th road game in their last nineteen games. Houston is coming off a close win over the Pelicans 107-105 but played without Sengun who was rested for a minor back injury. He is listed as questionable, but we expect him back here. The Rockets have won 6 of their last eight games at home with an average point differential of plus +9.5ppg. These two teams are relatively even on offense for the season with the Lakers averaging 1.177-points per possession, the Rockets average 1.180ppp. The glaring difference between the two teams comes on the defensive end of the court where the Rockets allow just 1.131ppp, the Lakers give up 1.168ppp which ranks 21st in the league. Houston is 23-8 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +6.6 which is enough to get a cover here against the Lakers.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 6pm ET - This line has been exaggerated with the injuries to the 76ers so we’ll grab the value with the home team. Should Portland really be laying this big of a number on the road against anyone other than the bottom four teams in the league? We don’t think so. Philadelphia barely beat the Nets last time out but they led by as many as 28-points in the game and just had a tough time closing the game out late. The Sixers last 5 wins have come against similar teams to the Blazers and their losses have come against some of the best teams in the league (Pistons, Cavs, Spurs, Celtics and a red-hot Hawks). Portland on the other hand is 5-5 SU in their last ten games but four of the wins were against Utah, Indiana, Memphis and Chicago. Granted, the 76ers are missing 4 of five starters in this one but the lineup they put on the floor of Edgecombe, Grimes, Edwards, Barlow and Bona are better than a team that would be +11.5 points on a neutral floor. Portland is 4-4 SU in their last eight road games with an average point differential of minus -4.1ppg. We’re happy to grab this generous number with the Sixers.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5 vs. Charlotte Hornets, 3:30pm ET - We like this Hornets team and what they’ve done this season and expect them to be a tough out in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but this is going to be a tall task to win in San Antonio Saturday. Charlotte is coming off two straight road wins over the Kings and Blazers (yawn). Prior to that they lost in Phoenix as a +5.5-point dog, 99-111. In other words, the Spurs, who might be the best team in the NBA, are favored by the same number at home as the Suns were just a few nights ago. Plus, we have the Spurs coming off a home loss the other night to Denver, a game in which they led by as many as 20-points. San Antonio is 11-7 ATS when coming off a loss this season with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. While Charlotte is 8-2 SU in their last ten games, only one of those wins came against a team with a .500 record or better. In fact three of those wins came against the Kings, Pacers and Wizards, the three worst teams in the league. The Spurs are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games with the two losses to the Knicks and Nuggets who are both better than this Charlotte team. In their last 15 games the Spurs are 13-2 SU with an average point differential of +12.7ppg – the best number in the NBA. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team overall at 45.9% (26th) but do hit 37.9% from the 3-point line and rely heavily on their 3PT shooting. San Antonio allows the 4th lowest FG% in the league at 45.2% and the 12th lowest 3PT% at 35.5% which will make scoring tough for Charlotte. On the opposite end of the court the Spurs should have their way offensively against the Hornets D that ranks 16th in overall defensive efficiency allowing 1.152-points per possession. Wemby is questionable tonight but even if he doesn’t play we like the Spurs in this matchup.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - The Mavericks are in a horrible scheduling situation here having played last night in Memphis and this will be their 3rd game in four days, 6th in nine days AND all of those were on the road. Prior to last night they had lost 8 straight games. The other current trend for the Mavs has been the UNDER with 8 straight and counting. Dallas has also struggled offensively, scoring 112 or less in 9 of their last fourteen games, 105 or less in 5 of their last eight games and 100 or less in 4/7. The Mavs have regressed as the season has worn on with injuries/trades taking a toll on this rebuilding year. Dallas has the 3rd worst offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.105-points per possession. Also impacting lower scoring games involving the Mavericks has been a slower pace of play. On the season, Dallas is one of the faster paced teams in the NBA at 101.6 possessions per game but in their last five that number has dropped to 98.8. Cleveland has been consistent defensively this season with the 12th best defensive efficiency rating, allowing 1.140ppp and 114.6ppg. In their most recent 5 games they are allowing 108.6ppg and 1.126ppp. The Cavs season long ranking in oEFF is 7th best in the NBA but they are trending down in recent games at 1.143-points per possession in their last 5 games. The Cavs + their opponents have combined for 236.5 or less points in 10 of their last eleven games when you exclude at OT period in one of those games. This is an easy call on the UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -13.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - It’s betting suicide to routinely lay double-digits in the NBA and expect long term winning results but sometimes you have to make an exception to the rules, which is what we’ll do tonight. Cleveland is coming off a loss two nights ago in Orlando after winning 3 of four games prior. They are battling for a better seed in the East, currently sitting 4th but only trail 2nd place Boston by 3 games. Dallas is in a very bad scheduling situation here having played 6 straight road games, including a game last night, a win in Memphis. This is their 3rd game in four days and 6th in nine days. We like to fade teams that were on an extended road trip and home for the first time as they tend to have a tough time in this scheduling situation. In the Mavs last 8 losses, 7 have come by double-digits. In the Mavs last 15 games they have the 4th highest points differential of minus -10.3ppg. Cleveland has the 8th best average margin of victory in that same 15 games stretch at +7.1ppg. Dallas was recently +16.5 points at home against the Thunder and lost by 13-points. That was somewhat misleading as the Thunder had a horrible shooting night from beyond the arc at 21% or that final could have been much greater. Given the scheduling advantage for the Cavaliers we will lay the big number with them tonight.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9 pm ET - The Nuggets were in a favorable scheduling situation last night hosting the Rockets but now find themselves playing without rest and on the road against what might be the best team in the NBA. San Antonio is clearly ahead of schedule with their young roster and are more than capable of winning it all this season. They are red hot right now with a 16-1 SU record in their last 17 games and have an impressive stretch of current wins over the Pistons, Clippers, Rockets and Celtics. In this 17-game run they have an average margin of victory of +14ppg – best in the NBA. A closer look at Denver and the records show they are 6-9 SU in their last 15 games with an average point differential of +1.6ppg. Denver is 7-6 their last thirteen away from home but none of those 7 wins came against a team with an above .500 record. They lost two recent games to OKC which would be a similar opponent to the Spurs, but they weren’t coming off games the night before. Denver is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA with an offensive efficiency rating of 1.215-points per possession with the best eFG% in the league at 57.1%. San Antonio though ranks 6th in oEFF and eFG% so they have an offense nearly equivalent to the Nuggets. The difference between the two teams is defensive as the Spurs rank 3rd in dEFF allowing 1.112ppp, the Nuggets rank 23rd.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -14.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 pm ET - The Hawks are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last 10 games and the 5th best Net rating over that span of games with an average +/- of +11.1ppg. Atlanta is on an 8-game winning streak which coincidentally started with an 11-point win over this same Nets team. Brooklyn has just 17 wins on the season and is fighting for a higher pick in this year’s draft. Brooklyn is 2-11 SU their last 13 games with an average loss margin of -15.1ppg. They have the worst Net rating in the NBA over that same period at minus -15.4. The Hawks have been winning by margin in this 8 game SU/ATS streak with every win by 9 or more points. Michael Porter Jr, the Nets leading scorer was injured last game and will be out tonight which is why this spread is 4 points more than the previous meeting. If it’s not broken – don’t fix it. The Hawks are surging, the Nets are tanking. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 10pm ET - We will lay the short number with the home team here with Houston in a tough scheduling situation. The Rockets played last night making this the 2nd of a back to back. They are also playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th game in seven days – and – playing at altitude. Denver is also coming off two straight losses and will be highly motivated to end this 2 game skid. Denver is 18-7 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of plus 6.4ppg. The Nuggets have Aaron Gordon back in the lineup and are as healthy as they’ve been all season with all 5 starters back in the mix. Denver has been solid when playing with a rest advantage with a 10-6 SU record but an average margin of victory in those games of +7.9ppg. Denver has a slightly better record in conference play than the Rockets with a +6.7ppg differential compared to Houston’s +3.5ppg. Denver is 6th in the West as of today but trails the 3rd place Rockets by just a game and a half which makes tonight’s home game massive. We will lay it with Denver who wins late when the Rockets run out of gas.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 at LA Lakers, 11 pm ET - We hope Lebron is in the line up tonight for the Lakers as they are simply a worse team with him on the floor. The Lakers are 4-12 SU against teams with a .600 or better winning percentage this season – 0-4 when Lebron plays. The Lakers are coming off of a big upset win over the Knicks on Monday, the Timberwolves are off a home blowout loss to the Magic on Sunday. Prior to their loss, the Wolves had won 5 straight and 8 of their last nine. In that same stretch of 9 games, they have 3 road wins at Portland, against the Clippers on this same floor and in Denver. Minnesota is 18-12 SU away from home this season which is nearly as good as the Lakers home record of 20-12. The Lakers are 5-1 their last six games but three of those wins were against the Kings, Pelicans and Pacers – three of the worst teams in the league. In their last nine games they have two wins over teams with an above .500 record, the Warriors and the Knicks. They also have 3 losses against the Celtics, Magic and Suns in that stretch. Minnesota is the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 48.3%, the Lakers D ranks 26th in opponents FG% allowing 48.4%. The Wolves are the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Lakers rank 16th in 3PT% allowed. Granted, the Lakers are the best shooting team in the league but the Wolves rank 9th in opponents FG% shooting. The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to 2nd chance points – the Wolves are 6th in 2nd chance points allowed. One thing is for certain in this matchup, Anthony Edwards will be ‘up’ for this Los Angeles game and Minnesota’s advantage on the offensive and defensive boards will be the difference in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239.5 Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - We have been on the Mavs UNDER in their last two games and cashed both tickets so why not go back to the well here. Games involving Dallas have stayed UNDER their total in 6 straight. The Mavs will have a tough time scoring here against a Hawks defense that has the #1 overall defensive efficiency over their last 5-games in the NBA. The Hawks are allowing just 1.031PPP in that 5-game stretch and 105.4ppg. Atlanta has held their last 5 opponents to 45.3% shooting, 11th best. Dallas has also struggled offensively, scoring 111 or less in 8 of their last twelve games, 105 or less in 5 of their last six games and 100 or less in 4/5. The Mavs have regressed as the season has worn on with injuries/trades taking a toll on this rebuilding year. Dallas has the 5th worst offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.103-points per possession. Don’t be fooled by the big offensive numbers the Hawks have put up in recent games as those numbers have come against teams in the bottom half of the league in dEFF. Even if the Hawks get to 120 in this game, the Mavs would need to score 118+ and that’s not going to happen with how they are currently playing. Combined this season these two teams are 18-30 to the UNDER in non-conference games.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +2.5 vs. NY Knicks, 10 pm ET - We like the Clippers in this one for several reasons including the fact the Knicks are coming off a game yesterday versus the Lakers while the Clippers are rested. New York lost a sloppy game yesterday with 18 turnovers while shooting just 2% from deep. Brunson played 42 minutes, Anthony Towns logged 34 minutes so both should be fatigued here. This is also the Knicks 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven days. The Clippers have won 4 of their last five games and are one game under .500 and sit just 1 game behind the Warriors for 8th in the Western Conference. LA is near healthy now with Darius Garland playing over 26 minutes on Saturday in the Clippers win over Memphis. LA has gotten much deeper with their trade line additions of Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and now Garland who had missed time with an injury. These same two teams met in New York in January with the Knicks favored by -5-points on their home court and are now laying points on the road? That doesn’t add up and we have the Clippers favored by 1.5 points in this game. In three recent home games against similar teams to the Knicks (Magic, Wolves and Nuggets) the Clippers were 1 & 2 with three close games and all three were without Garland in the lineup. The Knicks defense has slipped in recent games to 20th in defensive efficiency while the Clippers rank 20th in that same 5-game stretch. If we use that same 5-game span to compare the offenses we find the Clippers have an oEFF of 1.149-points per possession compared to the Knicks 1.142PPP. It all adds up to a big Clippers win at home as they get revenge for the road loss back in January.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 229.5 Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors, 7pm ET - We successfully bet UNDER in the Mavs last game which was against Boston on Friday night and will come right back with another UNDER wager on them here. The Mavs will have a tough time scoring here against a Raptors defense that has allowed 115 or less points in 8 of their last ten games, in five of those they held foes to 110 or less points. The Raptors have the 12th best defensive net rating over their last 5-games in the NBA at 111.4. On the season the Raps defensive efficiency rating of 1.129-points per possession allowed ranks 7th best. Dallas has also struggled offensively, scoring 111 or less in 7 of their last eleven games. The Mavs have regressed as the season has worn on with injuries/trades taking a toll on this rebuilding year. Dallas has the 5th worst offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.110-points per possession. Toronto is slightly below league average in terms of offensive efficiency and have scored 107 or less points in 4 of their last five games. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in 3PT% so it’s not like they’ll put up a ton of points from beyond the arc. Easy call on the UNDER in this one.