Play on: Golden State Warriors (-7) over Oklahoma City Thunder. We have to side with the Warriors here in a ‘must win’ situation at home off a loss. The scenario is perfect for a bet on Golden State but the Thunder have been the dominate team in this series and so laying seven plus points is the issue. Three of the four games in this series have been blowout with the victors winning by 27, 28 and 24 points so the number doesn’t scare us as much as it might normally. Golden State did not lose two straight games this entire season and are not about to lose three. The Warriors are 46-3 SU at home and have a home point differential of +14.4PPG which is one of the best in the NBA. On average Golden State shoots over 49% at home while allowing foes to hit under 44% of their shots and what’s significant about their shooting percentages is the fact the best shooting team in the NBA shot less than 41% in the previous two games. Back at home GST will find their touch again. The Warriors are 12-1 SU off a loss and a perfect 6-0 at home in that situation. The Thunder have been brilliant in the playoffs and may win this series but they won’t stay close in this one. OKC is just 1-5 ATS their last six trips to Golden State and we don’t expect the Thunder to get a cover here. 

ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5) over Toronto Raptors – Weds 7:30PM CT – OK, we’ve lost two straight wagers on the Cavs as they completely let us down on the road in Games #3 and #4. Cleveland was unbeaten in the playoffs prior to their trip to the north where the Raptors finally woke up and played good basketball. But now back in Cleveland we expect the Cavs to dominate like they did in the first two games of this series when they won by 31 and 19 points respectively. Cleveland shot over 50% as a team in the first two contests, then shot under 50% in both games in Toronto. The same can be said about the Raptors who shot poorly in Games 1 & 2 then shot well when they were at home in Games 3 & 4. Let’s not forget the Cavs have won their home games in the post season by a ridiculous 18PPG and only one of those victories has been by less than tonight’s point spread. The Cavs are averaging 1.218 points per possessions at home which is an incredible number and the best in the NBA in the post season. Their defensive efficiency at home is the 3rd best overall of all the teams left standing at 1.02PPP. Toronto’s road OEFF (offensive efficiency) is last among teams that are still alive in the post season at .978 points per possession and they have the largest overall road average deficit in the playoffs of -10.5PPG which is why they are just 2-6 ATS in road playoff games. After some questionable ‘no call’s’ for LeBron in Toronto expect him to get the benefit of the doubt at home tonight. Cleveland is 18-8 SU off a loss this season and 11-1 at home. Granted they have a big number to cover tonight but we feel they get a double digit home win here. 

UNDER 222 Golden State @ Oklahoma City Tuesday Game #4 - The best wager tonight is on the UNDER in the Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game #4. After allowing 133 points in the previous game you can bet Golden State’s defense will show up here. The Warriors had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season allowing just 1.038 points per possession and were top two a year ago. OKC is 13th in that same defensive category and are allowing less points per game in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. In Games #1 and #2 these two teams combined for 210 total points and 209 total points before the Thunder exploded for 133 themselves in Game #3. This game will be tightly contested and ‘playoff defense’ shows up tonight in a critical Game #4. The Warriors have stayed under the number in 7 of their last ten road games and 6 of their last eight Conference Finals. Oklahoma City has played under the total in 4 of their last five games when coming off a win and they’ve played under in 6 of their last eight Conference Final games. Backed by a strong Finals system we expect a very low scoring game tonight in OKC. 

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (+) over Golden State Warriors, 7PM CT - We will play on the OKC Thunder plus the points over the GST Warriors on Sunday in Game 3 of this series. With this Western Conference Finals locked at 1 win apiece it makes this game HUGE for both clubs and we like the home court advantage. The Warriors lost just 9 games during the regular season but have already lost 3 in the playoffs, two of which were on the road in Houston and Portland. Now they travel to one of the loudest, best home courts in the NBA in Oklahoma where the Thunder had a positive point differential of +9.8PPG. Their offensive efficiency rating at home was 1.125 points per possession which was second best in the league. In the playoffs those numbers are up and that includes a series against the Spurs. Granted, the Warriors road numbers are impressive too but they've proven they aren't as invincible on the road in the post season as they were during the regular season. The Thunder are 21-9 SU off a loss this season, 12-3 at home which obviously applies here considering they are an underdog. The home team has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and you don't get a team like OKC that has 2 of the 6 best players on their roster as a home underdog very often (4-2 ATS last 6 times). The difference in this game is Westbrook, Durant and a rebounding advantage for the Thunder. Grab the points.

Play on: OVER 198.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ over Toronto Raptors – 7:30PM CT - Game 3 Saturday – It pains me to say this but the Cavaliers have figured it out and have turned into the Warriors/Spur of the East. Watch the Cavs closely and how they unselfishly move the basketball, make the extra pass and are willing passers. By sharing the basketball and making shots it has opened up the driving lanes which makes LeBron James nearly unstoppable (shooting 65% from close and just 29% from 3-point line). The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs (10 straight wins) and will dispose of a bad Toronto team rather easily. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team from beyond the arc during the regular season but have hit 44% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 3's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 3's for 35%. In Game #2 they were 7 of 20 from beyond the arc and hit 50% from the field overall. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.211PPP and are averaging more points per game at 108.6PPG than they did during the regular season. The Raptors OEFF numbers are similar to their season averages so we do expect them to score here too. Raptor games played in Toronto this season averaged 201PPG with the Raptors averaging 45% shooting as a team but also allowed foes to hit 45%. The value clearly lies with an OVER bet here as the line has moved dramatically from the opener which started at 202.5. 

Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-12) over Toronto Raptors - Game 2 Thursday - Prior to the opener of this series the Cavs last played nine days ago, then they beat the Raptors handily in Game #1 and rested starters late in that game.  The Raptors came off a grueling 7-game series with the Miami Heat and fatigue showed on Tuesday when they were blown out. The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs and have morphed into the 'Warriors' of the East by turning into a 3-point shooting team. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team during the regular season but have hit 44% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 three's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 three's for 35%. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. The Raptors are certainly not playing their best basketball right now and Cleveland is. Toronto has the worst point differential of any of the playoff teams left standing at +.6PPG while the Cavs have the 2nd best point differential in the playoffs of +10.5PPG. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.207PPP while the Raptors have the worst OEFF of any team left in the post season. In the opener the Raptors shot just 42% as a team and were killed on the boards 45-23. The line on this game is clearly inflated and we are betting into strong number but with how these teams are playing we'll bite and lay the points. Toronto is just 1-5 ATS their last six away from home and Cavs on perfect 4-0 ATS stretch on their home court. 

PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder- Tuesday, 8PM CT-  In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we watched the all-time regular season win leader, Golden State, control the game for the majority of 3 quarters but couldn’t hold off the Thunder in the end. In Game #2 there is only one way to go and that’s with the 0-1 Golden State Warriors minus the points. The Warriors didn’t shoot it as well as they normally do in the opener and attempted 15 less free throws than the Thunder which is odd considering they are the home team and defending Champs. Golden State beat this Thunder team in the regular season by 8 and 15 points at home so we know they’re capable of covering tonight’s number. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season and are 45-3 SU this year at home. The Warriors suffered just 11 losses this year prior to Monday night and they are a perfect 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS in their next game after a beat, with those 11 wins coming by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-2 ATS their last nine at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. We feel the big advantage for Golden State in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor where the Warriors had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Thunder were 13th. In the playoffs the Warriors are allowing 1.032 points per possession which is the 4th best in the post season. On the flip side OKC is 8th overall in points allowed per possession in the playoffs. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big upset victory we expect a letdown in Game #2, along with an inspired effort by the defending champs at home off a loss. Warriors have covered 6 of their last seven off a loss and the home team has covered 7 of the last nine in this rivalry. Lay the points.  

PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-7.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder. In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we will side with the golden State Warriors minus the points. Under Steve Kerr the Warriors are 6-1 SU in Game #1’s of a series while the Thunder are on a 0-7 SU streak in that same situation. Golden State beat this Thunder team three times in the regular season by 8, 3 and 15 points with the larger of the two victories coming at home. It’s well documented that Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season. OKC had a very good road differential of +4.7PPG but they were just 10-12 ATS when playing away versus a team with a winning record. In fact, as an underdog this season the Thunder were just 6-8 ATS. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-1 ATS their last eight at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. As far as the on-court dynamics we feel the big advantage for the Warriors in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor. Golden State had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Warriors were 5th best. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big series upset victory over the Spurs we expect a letdown in Game #1 of this series opener in Golden State.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +4.5 over Toronto, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET

Three of the first four games in this series went to overtime and the overall scoring in those four games was Miami 379 & Toronto 374.  Pretty much as tight as you can get.  The last two games have strayed from that with the Raptors winning by 8 at home on Wednesday and Miami returning the favor winning by 12 on Friday.  We think game 7 gets back to the trend of the first four games and fully expect this one to go to the wire.  Miami is a veteran team that has proven they can get it done in these situations with Dwayne Wade at the helm.  The Heat are now 7-1 their last 8 elimination games in the playoffs.  They are 7-3 in Game 7’s while Toronto has never played in a Game 7 of this magnitude.  The Heat have been in this spot year in and year out.  Toronto’s playoff woes have been well documented as they are now 6-17 ATS their last 23 post-season tilts.  This will be a pressure packed game for a Toronto team that is not accustomed to being in this spot.  With the poor numbers we’ve stated, we simply have to shy away from the Raptors as a 2+ possession favorite here.  Toronto relies heavily on their 2 guards DeRozan and Lowry and the fact is neither has shot well.  Both are shooting under 40% in this series and we don’t expect a turnaround here in a stressful game 7 setting against a defense that has played very well not allowing the Raptors to hit 100 points once in this entire series.  With Valanciunas now out, Toronto will rely even more on their perimeter shooting which is a recipe for disaster in this situation.  We’ve got a feeling the pressure gets to Toronto here.  They had the better record, they are playing at home, and trying to reverse their poor post-season history.  You could say the more experienced Heat who have been successful in this situation are playing with nothing to lose – should we say less pressure – being on the road.  We’ll take the points in this one.   

Tonight we play UNDER in the Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat game Friday night. Surprisingly the total on this game has not been moved as much as it should be considering this series results and value still lies with an under wager. Let’s first look at the numbers Vegas has posted on the five games of this series. In Toronto we have had numbers of 192, 189 and 189. In Miami the oddsmakers have put up a total of 187.5 and 193.5. In those five games the average total posted by Vegas is 190 points. Now three of the games in this series have gone to overtime so if we base our calculation on regulation time we find these two teams are averaging just 179 total points in four quarters which is well below the total tonight. Both teams have had problems shooting the basketball in this series with Toronto’s All-Star backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan hitting just 32% from the field in the post season. And remember these two players take the vast majority of the attempts per game (33 combined per game) for the Raptors (average 81 FG attempts per game). Miami average nearly 108PPG since the All-Star break to the end of the regular season, but in their last 10 games they are averaging just 90PPG. The Heat were one of the better shooting teams in the league during the regular season but in this series they are down to just 44.5% shooting which would put them in the bottom half of the NBA in field goal percentage during the regular season. The same can be said about Toronto who shot 44.5% during the regular season but are hitting only 43.2% in this series. The under has cashed 4 straight Heat home games and 6 straight Raptor road games. With four potential starters (2 each) for both teams we highly doubt scoring is going to go up so the bet here is clearly the UNDER!

PLAY  ON: OKC THUNDER - We are playing on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs Game #6 Thursday. The 'statistical' side of me screamed the Spurs in this game but the 'eye-test' tells me the Thunder win this game tonight. OK, that's not all and there is plenty of statistical support for the Thunder here including the Spurs record of 1-4 in Duncan's era when they are down 3-2 in a series. Some will say it's a 'must win' game for the Spurs but it's also a 'must win' game for the Thunder who don't want to go back to San Antonio. There has been a lot of talk about different key stats but the biggest is the Thunder's advantage on the boards. It's become evident Tim Duncan can't rebound against Adam's and Kanter and the Spurs don't have anyone on the bench that can come in and compete on the glass with the Thunder's "Bigs".  OKC was +18 rebounds in the last game, +6 in Game #4, +5 in Game #3 and +11 in Game #2. The Thunder can make up for being a poorer offensive team than the Spurs because of how they dominate the rebounds and get second chance baskets. It's really the difference here. Yes, San Antonio is 14-3 SU off a loss this season but after a stellar season at home the Spurs have proven to be vulnerable with two home losses. San Antonio was also just 1-6 SU on the road this year against the better teams in the NBA so they're not the bully you think they are when up against the best. OKC is 35-11 SU at home this year and have 2 of the eight best players in the NBA on their roster in Westbrook and Durant and they'll advance tonight with a win over the Spurs.  San Antonio just 3-12 ATS their last 15 visits to OKC. 

PLAY ON Miami Heat (+4.5) over Toronto Raptors – 7PM CT Wednesday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. The Raptors are a poor 5-16 ATS the past three post seasons and much of that is due to the lack of consistency from All-Star’s Lowry and DeRozan. Lowry and DeRozan are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. In Game #4 those two combined for a 6 of 28 shooting night and just 19 combined points. As a team the Raptors hit less than 40% in the previous game while the Heat shot 45%. In the regular season the Heat were average in terms of overall offensive and defensive efficiency as a team, but in the playoffs they have the best DEFF allowing just .981 points per possession. The offense is 9th best at 1.049PPP which is slightly lower than their season average. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive efficiency statistics but in the post season they have the worst OEFF rating of all the teams left playing and have dropped from 1.10PPP to just 1.01PPP. Three of the four games in this series have gone into overtime and the non-overtime win was by just 4 points. All combined in the four games of this series the Heat have scored a grand total of 379 total points. Toronto has scored 374 total points. Just 5 total points separate these two teams in a four game series!!! D-Wade has turned back the clock and is carrying this Heat team and this one goes down to the wire again. There hasn’t been an adjustment in the pointspread and yet the Raps have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last eight games while the Heat are on a 5-1 ATS run. Grab the points!

San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder - 7PM Tuesday - We like San Antonio at home in Game 5 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive, if not more so in some cases, considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU  at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant has shot is well the past three games of this series but his overall shooting percentage in the post season is 43.3% which is down considerably from his regular season average of 50.5%. In the opener of this series in San Antonio he was just 6 of 15 from the field and scored just 16 points. This Spurs defense was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. San Antonio is one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this game. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters, and the Spurs as defenders, but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Kawhi Leonard is playing fantastic right now along with LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker who give the Spurs the depth the Thunder lack. We love to play on great teams off a loss which is the case here as the Thunder beat San Antonio in Game #4 in OKC. San Antonio is 14-2 SU off a loss this season, 10-1 at home. Oh-by-the-way...those 10 wins at home off a loss came by an average of 19PPG and the lone loss was late in the year against Golden State. The home team has covered 20 of the last 30 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 3-7 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a convincing home win as they did in Game #1 of this series. 

PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - This is a no-brainer to take the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. Let's just look at this logically first. We get arguably the best team of all time, off a loss and playing with revenge. In fact, this same scenario played out last series when Houston won Game #3 of their series at home and the next game the Warriors won by 27. The Warriors are 10-0 SU off a loss this season and those wins have come by an average of 14PPG. Let's not forget this Golden State team was 35-9 SU on the road this season with the second best point differential per game of +7.1PPG.  They had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings away from home at 1.125 points per possession while allowing just 1.055PPP for the 7th best defensive efficiency rating. Portland had very good offensive efficiency numbers at home along with a +5.7 point differential but defensively they were in the bottom half of the league in efficiency ratings and they allowed foes to make 46.1% (14th) of their FG attempts on their own floor. A bad FG% defense is not a good recipe against a Warriors team that is 1st in the NBA in team shooting percentage at 48.7% on the year.  Golden State is 7-2 SU the last nine meetings with the Blazers and all seven of those wins came by double digits with an average margin of victory of 16PPG. Portland is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the league at 37% but in their win last game they shot a ridiculous 56.7% as a team which nearly 20 full percentage points better than their season average. Golden State shot the 3 extremely well the last time out by making 48.3% of their 3-point attempts but that is just 7 percentage points higher than their season average.  Given the law of averages, we don't see the Blazers shooting it as well as they did in the last game, and they can't rely on their defense to win games BUT the Warriors can. Even without Curry our prediction models predicts a 10+ point win by Golden State here. Lay it!

We are going to play on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs. In our analysis of Game #3 we see several factors that suggest the Thunder can play much better than they did in the last game. The Spurs played pretty well and OKC didn’t in our opinion and yet it was a 4-point game. Russell Westbrook is an NBA Super Star and was a triple-double machine all season long. Yet, he still has his ‘brain cramp’ moments which is exactly what happened in Game #3 when he attempted 21 of his 31 field goals without even making a pass first. Today he’ll look to get his teammates more involved and we expect a better overall team effort. The Thunder shot just 41.5% from the field (average 47.4% at home) in Game #3 and yet it was only a 4-point game. I didn’t think it was the Spurs defense as much as Westbrook missing a ton of point-blank shots. I thought OKC’s defense was much better in the last game and expect a similar performance tonight in this do-or-die situation. Even with how well the Cavs are playing right now we still feel the Thunder and Spurs are two of the three best teams in the NBA so now we’re getting one of the best teams in the league, at home, off a loss and also a small underdog. The Thunder were 20-9 SU this season off a SU loss and 11-3 at home including four straight covers. OKC has covered 11 of the last 14 games at home with the Spurs so they clearly know what it takes to win on this court against San Antonio. OKC has one of the best home court point differentials in the NBA at +10PPG and they’ll even this series up with a win tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat (-5) over Toronto Raptors – 4PM CT Saturday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. They are lucky to be tied 1-1 in this series and were very close to being down 0-2 going into today. The biggest reason for their struggles is the horrendous play of their star players Lowry and DeRozen who combined are shooting less than 32% in the post season. Lowry can’t buy a basket right now shooting just 2 of 14 from beyond the arc in this series and a pathetic 15.8% in the playoffs. Lowry and DeRozen are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. Miami had a great opportunity to go up 2-0 in this series but an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers (averaged 14 per game during regular season) cost them a Game #2 win. The Heat have owned the boards in the two games of this series with a +17 margin which should continue today in Miami. Miami has won 3 of their four playoff games at home convincingly with wins coming by 32, 12 and 33 points. On the regular season the Heat were one of the better offensive and defensive efficiency teams in the league and had an average point differential of +5.3PPG. Again, we’ll mention the pressure factor and how it has affectied Toronto. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive road statistics but in the post season, against the 7th seed Pacers, they lost 2 of three on the road and the two losses came by 17 and 18 points. Miami is very good at home off a loss with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS record. The Heat have also covered 9 of their last ten at home while the Raptors are on a 0-6 ATS run. Lay the points with Miami here. 

We like the OVER in the Spurs at Thunder game #3 on Friday night. Obviously, math, statistics, predictive models and game simulators have a lot to do with our handicapping process (along with everything else) and the numbers tell us this O/U number is to low and the value lies with the 'over'.  Based on the pace of play of the games in this series we expect another higher scoring game tonight. When these same two teams met on this court during the regular season the oddsmakers posted a number of 207 and 207.5 on the two games and now we are looking at a number much less tonight. In 4 of the six meetings this season between these two teams at least one of the two have scored 102 or more points  and three of those contests ended with  a club topping 111+ points. The Spurs shoot over 48% as a team on the road (2nd best in NBA) while the Thunder shoot over 47.4% at home (4th best in NBA).  San Antonio is the 10th highest scoring road team in the NBA averaging 102PPG while the Thunder are the 2nd highest scoring team at home averaging 109PPG. Did you know that 8 of the last ten meetings in OKC between these two team has stayed under? Well, let's discredit that trend with the following 'value' numbers. Tonight's O/U line is the lowest in the last 13 meetings between these two teams in Oklahoma City with the last seven all having Totals of 206 or higher AND six of those last seven ended with 200 or more points. The oddsmakers have over-adjusted here and given us value with an over wager. 

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors -4.5 over Miami Heat 8PM ET- We have a hard time trusting this Toronto team but if there is a spot to play on them it’s here. It’s human nature here for the Heat to relax a little in this game after winning Game #1 as it will be Toronto’s reaction to play with more urgency. Let’s not forget the Raptors are 35-11 SU at home this season which is one of the better home court records in the entire NBA. Toronto has the 6th best home point differential in the league at +6.6PPG and the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating at home (1.125PPP). Prior to the Game #1 loss the Raptors had beaten Miami three straight times by 14, 20 and 8 points and in the two regular season home meeting the Raps were favored by -6.5 and -10.5 points which are both higher than tonight’s number. Toronto is 12-2 SU at home off a loss their last 14 games including 3-0 SU in the playoffs with all three wins coming by an average of 6PPG. Not to mention that nine of their last 12 wins off a SU loss (including playoffs) have come by more than tonight’s spread. Miami played very well in the opener but let’s not forget they just played a long tough series with an average Charlotte team and age isn’t on their side. The Heat were just 11-14 ATS on the road against teams with winning records this season and are just 3-8 ATS their last eleven overall away from home. This has also been a chalk series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen clashes. If there is any time or place to bet the Raptors in this series it’s in this game. 

We had the Cavaliers in the opener of this series and talked a lot about match ups and how Atlanta just can’t match up with the Cavs. But in this game we have to take the points with Atlanta in a desperate Game 2 situation. Much like the Thunder and Blazers played in Game 2’s of their series we expect a similar effort from the Hawks here. In the opener the Cavs shot extremely well from beyond the arc by hitting 15 of 31 3-point attempts which was good for 48.4%, well above their 36% season average. That’s especially surprising considering the Hawks have the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA allowing opponents to hit just 42.8% of their attempts on the season. Atlanta had the 5th best 3-point percentage defense allowing just 33.5%. The Hawks as a team shoot over 45% but in Game #1 they made under 39% of their FG attempts which is well below their season average. And it wasn’t anything the Cavs did who have an average FG% defense. The Hawks have the 7th best road point differential in the NBA when playing on the road this year and have the 2nd best defensive efficiency away from home allowing just 1.028 points per possession. Let’s not forget the Hawks actually led Game #1 with 8 minutes to play in the game but the Hawks offense managed just two field goals in the final 4 minutes of the game. Cleveland has a history of being over-priced which is evident by their 34-43 ATS record as a favorite. Atlanta was one of the best defensive teams in the league and they’ll find a way to keep Game #2 close. Grab the points. 

10* OVER THE TOTAL Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors - Tuesday - We will play OVER in the Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Game 1 on Tuesday. Let’s get a couple things out of the way quickly. First off we know how the unders have dominated in the playoffs but will buck that trend here and we’ll get to why shortly. Secondly, the Heat have a really strong under record when playing on the road this year. So why do we like over tonight? Value and an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. These two squared off four times this year and three of the four had posted totals between 187 and 191 but the most recent meeting on March 12th had a number of 203. They combined to score 194 in regulation in the last meeting with Miami shooting a horrendous 37.8% AND Dwyane Wade didn’t play. Because of the factors we previously pointed out, Vegas has put a number on this game that is simply too low. Our predictive math model produced a number of 197 on this game which is the correct number in our opinion, hence the value. In the one regular season meeting that was statistically ‘average’ for both teams these two combined for 202 total points. Miami has favored the under on the road this year with a 17-26 record BUT those games have averaged 195PPG. Toronto has an over record at home of 24-20 this year and those games have averaged 202PPG. Granted these two are really good in defensive efficiency rankings and play a slower tempo but the number has clearly been set too low. BET OVER!

We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. First off I’d like to say this. I’m not a chalk eater but after two really EASY wins the last two days by taking the Spurs and Warriors in their opening round series why wouldn’t I at least consider Cleveland here. We can make the case that the Cavs are the third or fourth best team in the league behind the Spurs and Warrior and maybe OKC and they square off against a Hawks team that isn’t as good as OKC but similar to Portland. Why wouldn’t we lay the points in this game? Not to mention this is simply a ‘bad matchup’ for Atlanta. Yes, that’s right sometimes you have teams that can’t matchup physically against other opponents which I believe is the case for the Hawks. They’ve lost seven straight games to the Cavaliers after being swept in the playoffs last year and then losing all three meetings this season. The reality here is revenge doesn’t work here when you can’t matchup with your opponent. The Cavs have won the last 7 meetings by an average of 12PPG including one game very late in the season when Cleveland was at home favored by -6.5 points and won by 15. In terms of defense these two teams are similar as the Hawks were 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings (DEFF) while Cleveland was 10th. Offensively though the Cavs were much better ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency (OEFF) while the Hawks were 22nd worst. The Cavs are 35-8 SU at home this season with the 3rd best point differential of +8.2PPG which has improved to +11PPG in the post season. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a dog of 6 to +7.5 points this season which tells us they are an overvalued club. The Cavs are playing their best basketball right now and we see another game #1, new series, double digit win tonight. 

Golden State Warriors (-9.5) over Portland Trailblazers – 2:30PM CT - Play on the Golden State Warriors over the Portland Trailblazers. We can pretty much use some of the same logic that we used yesterday with the Spurs over the Thunder. Today we get the one of the two BEST teams in the NBA at home laying a reasonable number over another team that is coming off a huge series and upset win. We laying 7 points with the Spurs over the Thunder who might be the 3rd best team in the league and will lay this number with a Warriors team that is even with San Antonio and a Blazers team that is worse than OKC. Golden State beat the Blazers on this floor twice this season by 16 and 25 points already and even without Curry they’ll get a double digit victory in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG and are currently 42-2 on their home floor. Portland was not a good road team all season long with a 17-27 SU road record and the 21st WORST road point differential of -4.1PPG. Portland has a nice team that has a bright future but they did get a little lucky in the opening series when both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul went down with injuries. Granted the Warriors don’t have Curry here but other players have stepped up and this ‘TEAM’ continues to roll. Golden State has covered 5 straight at home and will get a blowout win here in the opener. 

We like San Antonio at home in Game 1 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive if not more so in some cases considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU  at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant did not shoot it well in the first round series against the Mavs hitting just 36.8% from the field and 26.8% from beyond the arc. Now he'll go up against a Spurs defense that was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. The Spurs are one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this series. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters and the Spurs as defenders but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Under-appreciated Kawhi Leonard shot 52.7% in the first round, including 61.1% from beyond the arc. San Antonio is 4-0 in a Game 1 of a series after sweeping the previous series and they've covered 6 of their last 7 Conference Semifinal games.  The home team has covered 18 of the last 26 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 2-6 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a double digit win. 

We are going to take the Miami Heat on the Moneyline over the Charlotte Hornets. After winning the first two games of this series the Heat have been beaten three straight by the Bugs and we don’t think it will be four in a row.  The veteran Heat have been pretty good off a loss this season with a 25-12 SU record which included an 8-0 streak to end the regular season in that situation and those eight victories came by an average of 15PPG. In the first two games of the series the Heat shot it ridiculously well but they’ve struggled from the field in three straight which is not a true indication of their team. Miami shot it 47% from the field on the season which was one of the better numbers in the NBA. Charlotte was a little better than average in FG% defense but they aren’t capable of containing this Heat team four games in a row. Law of averages tell us so. We also like the betting trends going on right now with this game with public versus smart money and all indicators tell us Miami is the side to be on. 

We like the Indiana Pacers at home over the Toronto Raptors tonight. Indiana dominated the last game of this series for the vast majority of the game before a 4th quarter collapse when they managed just 9 points. Despite scoring just 9-points in the 4ht the Pacers still only lost by 3-points. Pacers Paul George has been a beast in this series averaging over 28PPG and he’s the type of player that can carry a team for long stretches of games and in this elimination setting he’ll shine. Toronto just isn’t trustworthy. They’ve struggled in the playoffs the last two years and if it weren’t for their horrendous 4th quarter in the last game they’d be facing playoff extinction here. The telling statistics in this series and difference for Indiana has been their defense. The Pacers had the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA during the regular season allowing opponents to hit just 43.8% of their attempts and in the post season they’ve held the Raptors to that number or below in every game. Toronto is not a very good shooting team either as they ranked 17th in the NBA in FG% or team shooting.  Yes, the Raptors are much better overall in terms of offensive efficiency but the Pacers defense finished the regular season ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency rankings and are clearly one of the best in the league. Our predictive math model tells us the Pacers win this game by 7-9 points and we agree. Play ON the Indiana Pacers. 

We will grab the points with the LA Clippers at home over the Portland Trailblazers.  We've been doing this a loooonnnnggggg time and one thing we've seen over and over again is the game after a superstar gets hurt, other players step up and play well with opportunity to play more. IE: See the Warriors against Houston in their last game with Curry out. Remember it's a pretty fine line that separates good and great players in the NBA and when the reserves get a chance to shine in the spotlight they typically respond. The Clippers played half of the season without Blake Griffin so they'll fill that void tonight. The bigger loss is PG Chris Paul who the pick and roll offense ran through BUT the Clippers prepared for this scenario by putting in a true motion offense this season in case Paul went down. Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford (perennial 6th man of the year) and JJ Redick will have to step up in his absence and we feel they're up for the task. Let's not forget the Blazers were not a good road team this season with a 16-27 SU away record and a negative road differential of -4.8PPG. When playing good teams or clubs with winning records on the road this year the Blazers were just 9-13 ATS in the regular season. The Clippers were -8.5 points at home in game two of this series and are now a home underdog here? No way! Take the points with the LA Clippers and watch the back-ups get it done.

PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS: Grab the points with the Boston Celtics tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. This has been a great series so far and should go a full 7 games before an eventual winner is decided. After losing the first two games of the series, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens, made the necessary adjustments and the C's won the next two games to even things up at 2 games apiece. Three of the four games have been tightly contested with decisions by 9 points in overtime, 8 points and 1 point. The lone big win was by Atlanta at home in Game #2 when the Celtics scored just 7 points in the first quarter which is clearly an anomaly. We are obviously getting value with the spread here too as the line on the opening game of this series was Atlanta favored by -5.5 points but now they are laying 7. The Raptors had one of the better home point differentials in the league at home of +6.6PPG during the regular season but Boston had the 8th best road differential of +.9PPG. These two teams were both top 5 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings but the Celtics were far superior in offensive efficiency ranking 10th compared to Atlanta's 22nd rankings. Great teams find a way to bounce back after a loss but that's not the case with the Hawks who are 0-5 ATS their last five when coming off a beat. 

We will play UNDER in the Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets game. In the first two games of the this series these two teams combined for 218 and 214 total points in Miami but a large reason both were high scoring was because of how well the Heat shot it. The Heat shot 57.8 percent in the pair of blowout home wins including 52.9% from 3-point range, but on the road in Game #3 they hit just 34.2% from the field. In the first two games of the series the pace of play was below the league average as they attempted just 150 and 165 field goal (league ave 169) but because of the Heats success shooting both games went over the number. In the third game they combined for 169 FG attempts but the shooting percentages returned to normal and the game stayed WAY below the number of 196.5 with 176 total points. We expect a similar pace and shooting performance tonight as games played on this floor between these two teams have generally been lower scoring (176, 193, 180 and 154 last 4 here). Miami is one of the slower paced road teams (4th slowest) in the league at 93.4 possession per game and they have 6th best road efficiency defense in the NBA allowing just 1.052 points per. Charlotte has the 6th best home efficiency defense in the league and is barely above average in the league in pace of play at home. The under has cased 20 of the last 26 on this court when these two clubs have faced off and we expect another game under 190 total points tonight.

ASA 10* Golden State Warriors (-9) over Houston Rockets Game 4 Sunday 3:35PM ET

Golden State is in Houston to face the Rockets in Game #4 today and should get a lift with the return of league MVP Steph Curry to the lineup. Without Curry the Warriors were able to beat the Rockets at home by 9 in Game 2 but then lost Game 3 by 1 in Houston.  Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and they allow a whopping 106.3PPG.  The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio.  Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston.  Golden State has covered 5 of the last seven and are 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. It's an inflated number but we still like the Warriors here by double digits.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Toronto, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET

We’re going to take the Indiana Pacers plus the points over Toronto and expect an even 2-2 series after today. Indiana has the advantage defensively with one of the best efficiency defenses in the league and will have to contain the Raptors offensively. The Pacers have rarely been home underdogs this entire season and when they have been it’s mainly been the powerhouse teams of the West. Meaning the value clearly lies with Indiana at home in a must win situation. Much has been made of Toronto’s poor playoff success the past few years and even after winning the last two games we’re not about to trust them in this setting. The Pacers have done well when coming off a SU loss by covering 8 of their last eleven in this situation and the underdog has cashed 4 of the last five in this rivalry. Paul George and Monte Ellis will carry Indiana to a home win and even this series up.

UNDER 200 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons - 6PM CT - We play UNDER in the Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons game #3.  In Game #1 the Pistons shot well above their season averages by making over 50% of their field goal attempts overall and nearly 52% from 3-point range. Cleveland shot 44.3% overall and made 12 of 35 3's for 34.3%. Combined the two teams attempted 161 field goal attempts. In Game #2 the numbers for each team basically flipped with the Cavs having the hot shooting night by hitting 50% from the field and by going 20 of 38 from the 3-point line for 52.6%. Detroit shot 43.6% as a team from the field. The total field goal attempts for both teams was 158. The reason we mention the field goal attempts is that the league average per game is 169 and in both games of this series they've combined for less shots than that number. Less shot means less scoring, unless of course teams shoot extremely well. We expect the defensive intensity to go up dramatically tonight as this series is starting to get a little 'chippy' by both clubs. These two teams were both in the top 12 in defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than 1.055 points per possession. Our math model in this situation projects a total of 195 or less in this game and we agree. Bet UNDER

PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: If you've followed our picks for any length of time you've heard us mention 'value' a lot when it come to the pointspread.  Tonight is one of those cases as we look at the three NBA games on the docket. Golden State travels to Houston to face the Rockets in Game #3 tonight without Steph Curry and are favored by less than 6-points or two possessions. Yes, it's the 'must win' game for Houston to survive but  let's look at it this way. The Warriors are clearly one of the top two teams in the league and better in most every category than Oklahoma City who is laying MORE points in Dallas whereas the Mavs are better than the Rockets. Granted, the Thunder are off a loss but there is no way this line should be as low as it is tonight. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and when you watch James Harden play it's obvious why. Harden and the Rockets are selfish and more concerned about their own personal gains and popularity than they are winning championships. That's why we don't think this 'must win' game means as much to them as the Warriors who are the epitome of a great 'team'.  The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio.  Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. Despite missing Curry in Game #2 the Warriors were still able to win by 9-points as Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green all stepped up in his absence. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston.  Golden State has covered 5 of the last six here and are loaded with enough talent to beat a bad Rockets team that lacks chemistry. Lay it!

Tonight we play UNDER in the Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat game #2. These two teams combined for 214 total points in the opener as the Heat drubbed the Hornets 123-91. Miami scored a ridiculous 41 points in the opening quarter and we don't feel they can do that again versus a Hornets team that will be more prepared tonight. Miami was one of the better shooting teams in the league this season but they shot 57.6% in the opener which is drastically higher than their season average of 47%. Charlotte has one of the top 8 defenses in the NBA in terms of efficiency ratings and they allowed just 100.7PPG on the year which was 9th best. Miami's defense is also very good as they give up just 98.4PPG and have the 9th best efficiency defense allowing just 1.043 points per possession. Then we factor in the tempo or pace of play and it sets up to be a low scoring game. Miami is the 6th slowest team in the league and Charlotte is average or 15th. In Game #1 these two teams combined for just 150 field goal attempts which is WAY lower than the league average per game of 169. The NBA average points scored per game this season is 204.8PPG which is barely higher than tonight's total on a game that figures to feature considerably less field goal attempts against two top 10 defensive units. Not to mention that one team gave up 123 so expect a much better effort on that end of the floor from Charlotte. Neither team breaks 95 points tonight. Both teams have a strong history of staying under the number when playing on two days rest also. BET UNDER!

Tonight we play OVER in the Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs Game #2 Tuesday. The Spurs put a beatdown on the Grizzlies in Game 1 106-74 for a total of just 180 points which stayed below the set number by Vegas of 188.5. Now the oddsmakers have adjusted the Total down on tonight’s game and the value clearly lies with the ‘OVER’. Memphis shot just 39.2% as a team in the opener (ssn ave 44%) and had two quarters of 14 or less points which is obviously irregular stats for a playoff team. Combined the two teams attempted just 19 free throws and we expect that number to go up dramatically tonight as the intensity level goes up. In the three previous meetings between these clubs they had combined for 186, 214 and 188 points. Looking at the Spurs entire schedule this season we see just 4 games where Vegas had posted a Total less than tonight’s number. Looking at Memphis we find that the Grizz and their opponent have scored more than tonight’s Total in 18 of their last twenty games. Spurs home games averaged 196PPG this season which is the same average of as the Grizzlies road games. The bet here is OVER the Total.

BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT! 15-3 NBA RUN CONTINUES!

We will play OVER in the Celtics vs. Hawks Game #2 on Tuesday. In the opener these two teams combined for 203 total points but they should have scored much more in that game as they combined for 188 field goal attempts in that game (league average is 169 per game). Both teams had a bad night shooting. Boston shot just 36.3% overall from the field and was 11 of 35 from beyond the arc for 31.4%. Atlanta was just 35 of 86 from the field for the night overall and a horrendous 5 of 26 from the 3-point line. On the season the C’s shot just under 44% as a team while the Hawks hit just under 46% during the regular season. In the last three regular season meetings these two teams combined for 225, 210 and 218 total points which are more like the number we expect to see tonight.  Remember these two teams like to play ‘fast’ as both rank in the top 8 of the NBA in pace of play by averaging over 97 possessions per game.  We predict a much better shooting night for both teams and know they’ll play at a faster pace so this game should go ‘OVER’ the number rather easily. BET OVER!

Let's keep the 15-3 NBA HOT STREAK rolling! Best of luck!

Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Indiana Pacers, Monday, Game #2 7PM ET - We lost with the Raptors in the opener of this series but have to come right back here with a play on them in Game #2. As we stated in our first analysis the Raptors have the 5th best overall point differential in the NBA and 5th best number at home of +6.6PPG where they were 32-9 SU for the regular season. The big difference between these two clubs is on the offensive end where the Raps ranked 5th in offensive efficiency ratings while the Pacers were 24th. Indiana had a losing road record this season of 19-22 SU and they lost the two regular season meeting here by 7 and 13 points respectively before their 10-point win in the opener. The Pacers were just .500 ATS on the road against teams with winning records while the Raptors were 16-4 ATS at home against winning teams. We look for irregular stats in games and two obvious ones were how well Indiana shot from beyond the arc in Game 1 and how many turnovers the Raptors had, along with how poorly Toronto shot. Indiana hit 11 of 21 3-pointers in the first game of the series for 52.4% which is much higher than their season average of 35.3%. Toronto on the other had shot just 38% overall in the game which was well below their season average or 45%. Lastly, the Raptors turned the ball over 20 times in Game #1 which was really odd considering they were 5th in the NBA in NOT turning it over this season at just 13.2 TO's per game. Toronto was +14 in rebounds and outscored the Pacers by 16-points in the paint which are favorable signs for tonight. Toronto has been very good off  a loss this year with a 17-9 SU overall record, 9-2 SU when at home off an 'L' and they've covered 4 straight in that role. Indiana was 12-15 ATS this season on the road off a win and we would expect a letdown here after their upset win in Game 1. Yes, we know the Raptors struggles in the post season but the only way to be this game tonight is by taking the home team with revenge and a do-or-die situation. Lay it. 

LA Clippers (-8) over Portland Trailblazers, Sun 9:35PM CT - We like the LA Clippers over the Portland Trailblazers in Game 1 on Sunday. If you read our Efficiency differential article on predicting the NBA Champion this year you’ll know that the Clippers, statistically, are one of a handful of teams that can win it all this year. LA is 7th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency which is much better than the Blazers 6th (OEFF) and 22nd (DEFF) rankings. The Clippers quietly went about their business this season and finished with the 6th best overall point differential (+4.3PPG) and 5th best home point differential of +6.9PPG. LA was 29-12 SU at home this season whereas the Blazers were a poor 16-25 SU on the road. Of all the playoff teams the Blazers have the second worst road point differential of minus -4.1PPG which was 21st worst in the entire NBA. Of all the playoff teams only Memphis has a worst road point differential but they were gutted by injuries all season long. The Clippers won 3 of the four season meetings with the Blazers with those three victories coming by an average of 9PPG. Portland ended the regular season on an 0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS stretch on the road against playoff teams while the Clippers closed the season with a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS mark their last four at home against similar clubs. Dynamically, the Clippers can play ‘small ball’ with the Blazers which makes this a very favorable first round matchup for them. Lay the points with the LA Clippers.

Atlanta Hawks (-4.5) over Boston Celtics, Sat 6PM CT - We will open the Playoffs with a best bet on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Boston Celtics. In some games/series there are teams that simply don’t match up with their opponent and we feel that’s the case here. The Hawks won 3 of the four meetings during the regular season including a win on this court last week 118-107 as a -5.5-point favorite. Atlanta has shot the ball EXTREMELY well against the Celtics by hitting over 52%, 46.6% and 56.2% in their last three meetings along with outrebounding them by 12 total rebounds. The telling stat from those three games though is points in the paint as the Hawks have outscored Boston from the lane by 46 total points in those three contests. That all ties into the season numbers with the Hawks having the 11th best team field goal percentage in the league and Boston having the 24th. Atlanta holds decided advantages shooting the basketball and defending shooters overall and at home compared to Boston’s season averages. The Hawks were 27-14 SU at home this year with a positive point differential of +5.9PPG compared to the Celtics 20-21 SU road record and point differential of +.9PPG. The Celtics are on a current 2-9 SU and ATS record on the road against Playoff teams and are just 2-12 ATS their last 14 on the road against teams with a .600 or better home winning percentage. Looking at the Hawks we find they are 8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS at home their last 11 to close the regular season against Playoff teams. As a favorite priced between 5 and 7.5-points the Hawks have a solid 13-6 ATS record and we expect a big home win here.

Tonight we will play on the Boston Celtics at home minus the points over the Miami Heat. This is a solid situation for the Celts as they are coming off a rare home loss while the Heat are off a straight up road win. Boston is 10-5 SU at home this season off a loss while the Heat are just 10-12 SU away off a win.  Both teams need to win for a better position in the playoffs so the game has plenty of meaning for both sides. Boston has the 9th most home wins in the NBA this season and a home point differential of +5.5PPG which is 11th best in the league. Miami has a solid road record at 20-20 SU but in their last 13 road contests they have 6 wins and just two of those were against winning teams. The Heat have just one spread win their last 6 away from home. Miami is also off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in a four night span while Boston is rested. The Heat are 8-8 SU and ATS this season when playing without rest but 0-4 ATS their last four in that situation. The Celtics have covered 14 of the last eighteen meetings at home over Miami including a 12 point win in late February. Lay the points with Boston. 

#503/504 UNDER 201 Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons - 6:30PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons game. Both teams are in the bottom 11 of the league in pace of play and both prefer a slower tempo. This game will be very similar to a playoff game as both teams are fighting for a better playoff position. The other nice factor that works for us here is the fact that both teams are also in the top 11 in the league in defensive efficiency rating. These same two teams faced off recently in Miami and they combined for just 196 total points with a combined 164 field goal attempts which is below the league average of 169. This three games this season between these two clubs have all resulted in under's and none of the games have ended with more than the last games 196 points. We like a lower scoring game here and will play UNDER the total. 

Tonight we play OVER in the Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers game. This is a little contrarian for us as we typically lean towards 'under' on games like this but this is an exception. There is some value in the line tonight as these two teams just me on April 1st and Vegas posted a Total of 206 on that game. It ended up going over the number BUT it took OT to get there. At the end of the 4th quarter in that game these two teams combined for just 192 points but there were some abnormal stats in that game. Both teams shot 40% or worse which is certainly not the 'norm' as these two teams are both in the top 11 of the NBA in team field goal percentage above 45.8%. The Hawks have scored 101 or more points offensively in 12 of their last fourteen games while the Cavs have scored 100+ in eight straight games and 12 of their last thirteen. The Cavaliers score their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the floor as they rank 3rd in the NBA in OEFF with a 1.109 points per possession average. The Hawks aren't as efficient offensively but they get it done by playing faster as they rank 8th in pace of play. The 'over' has cashed 4 straight in the series and 6 straight in Cleveland. Hawks 'over' when playing away against a winning team while Cavs 'over' 7-1 L8 at home versus teams with above .500 road record. It all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight. BET OVER! 

We will lay the points with Portland over Minnesota. Portland still has motivation to win this game as they desperately want the 5 seed in the West to avoid the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs so they won’t just rest starters here. Minnesota is coming off a pair of wins over Golden State which was easily their biggest win of the season, then won in Sacramento when the Kings decided to ‘rest’ their two best players in Cousins and Rondo. So we’re not impressed with the Wolves second win and expect a letdown here with their focus being on winning their last two home games. At first glance you might think the line is over-inflated here but really it’s not as bad as you think. The horrible Kings were laying -5.5 points (before announcing injuries) against the Wolves and Portland was a -6.5 point favorite the last time they faced the Wolves. Portland has the 8th best home point differential in the NBA this season at +5.9PPG and they’ve WON 16 of their last 17 at home with a large portion of those wins coming against playoff caliber teams including Golden State (won by 32), Oklahoma City (won by 5), Miami (won by 17), Boston (+7) and Dallas (+6). Minnesota has a negative point differential of -3.3PPG on the road this year and despite their last two wins they have allowed their last 5 opponents to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts so expect a good shooting Portland team to take advantage. Minny is just 7-13 SU this year off a win and has just 1 spread cover their last 8 trips to Portland. We expect a double digit win by the host Blazers. 

We love the Golden State Warriors in this situation and will play on them here minus the points over the visiting San Antonio Spurs. Golden State is coming off a DISAPPOINTING overtime home loss to the T'Wolves and have now lost 2 of 3 at home which has everyone questioning them. Tonight they bounce back off that loss and prove a point with a big win over the Spurs. GST is a perfect 8-0 SU when coming off a loss this year, 4-0 at home and the 8 wins have come by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors are 22-6 SU the past two seasons off a loss for a winning percentage of 79%. San Antonio has lost 2 of their last four road games and we feel this game won't have the same importance for them as it will Golden State. The Spurs are sandbagging for the post season and will focus on beating the Warriors at home next week and then in the post season. The last time these two teams met on this floor the Warriors were favored by -4.5 points and won by 30. San Antonio is perfect at home this season with all 12 losses coming on the road. The Warriors are 85-6 SU the past two seasons at home while the Spurs are just 8-12 SU as a road pooch in that same time. This really comes down to the Warriors being motivated and the Spurs are not. Lay the points with Golden State.

The pace of play dictates an OVER bet in this game and we expect 220+ points to be scored here. The Nets have struggled to score lately but they've played faster than normal 97.1 possessions per game their last five games (10th fastest) compared to their season average of 95 which is 21st slowest. In their last five games the Nets have the worst defense in the NBA allowing an average of 113.4PPG on 1.168 points per possession. Tonight they face a Wizards team that is rested and loves to play fast. Washington is the 5th fastest paced team in the league at 98.3 possessions per game and average 103.5PPG which is the 10th best number in the league. The Wiz are an 'average' team in terms of defensive efficiency numbers but below average in points allowed per game giving up 104.6PPG which is 10th worst. Washington is fighting for a playoff spot and are going to do what they do best and that's play transition basketball. We expect a very high scoring game here. Bet OVER!

#703/704 UNDER Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat 6:35PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat game. We like the spot and the number here and our math model projects a total of 192 points on this game. Miami is coming off a 3 game West coast road trip and now face another team in the East jockeying for playoff positioning. The Heat sit in the 5th spot in the East and are trying to move up to 4th for home court in round 1 of the playoffs. Detroit is battling just to get into the post season and teams in this situation usually play a closer to the vest and more deliberately.  Miami has recently played in games with end results of 203, 218, 202 (OT) and 209 but those four games were against horrible defensive efficiency teams (Portland, Sacramento, Lakers and Brooklyn) that all rank in the bottom 11 worst in the NBA. Those team also rank in 19th or worst in opponents points allowed per game. Now the Heat face a Pistons team that is 11th in points allowed per game and 10th in defensive efficiency. The Pistons have played in four straight unders against other playoff bound teams much like Miami. They totaled 184 with Chicago, 187 with Dallas, 170 with the Thunder and 207 with Atlanta. In the first two meetings of the season between these clubs they produced total points of 185 two times. These two team both prefer a slower tempo and we can't see either team reaching 100 tonight. Historically speaking the 'under' has cashed 19 of the last 26 meetings in Miami. Bet UNDER!

#517/518 UNDER 196 Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks – 6:30PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks game. We don’t expect either team to get to 100 points in this game and expect less than 190 total points. On the season the Pacers have the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA allowing just 1.028 points per possession. New York will clearly have problems scoring here against this defense as they have the 21st least efficient offense in the NBA not to mention they are the 4th slowest team in the league in terms of pace. Offensively the Knicks have struggled to score points as they’ve managed 94 or more points in just three of their last ten games. In fact, 9 of those last ten games all stayed below the total. Indiana has had their own offensive problems of late with an ‘under’ run of 7 and 3 their last ten games. The Pacers are 5-0 under their last five games when playing without rest which is the case today as they come off a game yesterday versus Philly. The under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings overall and 5 of the last six in New York. Expect a low scoring game here today. 

Play on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. In wake of a really bad outing we expect the Wizards to bounce back here with their Playoff lives on the line. Washington is 3 games behind the 8th place Pacers and need this win in the worst way. Phoenix has just 20 wins on the season which makes them the 3rd worst team in the NBA. If they stay in this position they have a much better shot at getting a top 3 pick in the lottery which is critical when you look at the class declaring for the draft. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price with this road favorite but the Wiz were just favored by 9 over the Lakers in L.A. and won by 13 so it's not totally out of line. The Suns have the 3rd worst overall point differential in the NBA at -7.3PPG, 4th worst defensive efficiency rating and 3rd to last offensive efficiency number. Washington is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 45.8% and they should take advantage of a Suns defense that has one of the worst shooting percentage D's in the NBA. On the flip side the Suns won't take advantage of the Wizards defense as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the league. Phoenix has shot 41.9 percent while averaging 97.9 points over its last eight games and that won't get it done against a Wizards team that can score points (103.4PPG - 10th best in NBA). 

OVER 206 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 6:35PM CT

We like OVER in the Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons game. Our analytics project a total of 210 plus on this game and we couldn't agree more. Atlanta is the faster paced team of the two ranking in the top 10 in that statistical category but both are playing extremely efficient offensively right now.  In their last five games both of these franchise rank in the top 9 in offensive efficiency numbers with Detroit averaging 1.17 points per possession and Atlanta averaging 1.133PPP. On the season both Atlanta and Detroit rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency rankings but in their last five games both are allowing more points per possession with each in the bottom half of the league in that category. Both teams are playing the second night of a back to back and both tend to play higher scoring games when un-rested. Combined these two teams are 20-14 'over' when playing without rest this season.  The Pistons have scored 112 or more points in 5 of their last six games and have allowed 102 or more in 8 of their last ten. The Hawks have ripped off 7 straight games of 101 or more points and have averaged over 110PPG in that stretch. In the most recent meeting between these two teams which was earlier this month they combined for over 52 total points in all four quarters. The 'over' has cashed 4 straight in this series and the last 4 meetings in Mo'Town. The bet here is OVER!

Play UNDER in the Atlanta Hawks versus Washington Wizards game tonight. This is a quick rematch from Monday night when the Wizards beat the Hawks in Atlanta 117-102. Tonight we expect the defenses to step  up in a game that has playoff implications for both clubs. Prior to Monday's game the Hawks had held five straight foes to an average shooting percentage of just 40%. The Wizards though shot 50% overall from the field and 52% from beyond the arc which are both higher than season averages so expect them to return to the 'norm' tonight. Atlanta has the second best overall shooting percentage defense in the NBA and have the second best defensive efficiency rating in the league just behind the Spurs in both categories. Washington is 'average' in terms of DEFF (defensive efficiency) and slightly below average in points allowed per game. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency ratings even though both clubs shoot it relatively well. Money indicators and line movement clearly tell us the play  on tonight's game is 'under'. Hawks under in four straight when coming off a loss and Wizards 'under' in 5 of their last six off a win.  The two meetings this season have gone 'over' BUT 8 of the last ten meetings have resulted in less than tonight's total. Value with the UNDER!

Tonight we will play on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Washington Wizards. We have been waiting for a spot to play on the Hawks and this game is the perfect situation. Atlanta is running HOT right now having won 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten overall. In that stretch of games they've beaten playoff bound: Memphis, Indiana, Houston and the Clippers. On the flip side the Wizards have won 4 straight games but take a look at who they came against. Philly, 9 wins and one of, if not the worst team in the NBA. The Knicks who are tanking right now for a better lottery position. Detroit who is out  of the playoff picture right now and Chicago who is 8th in the East. What we're saying is this...we're not impressed! The Hawks have a point differential of +15PPG their last five games and have held foes to just 40.5% shooting and 93.4 points per game in that stretch. On the season, Atlanta has one of the leagues better home point differentials of +6.2PPG (6th) while Washington has one of the worst road differentials (23rd) at minus -4.7PPG. Washington on the road is just 7-13 ATS when playing an above .500 team this year and 0-4 ATS their last four versus home teams like Atlanta that have a winning percentage greater than .600. The Hawks have covered 8 of the last 12 meetings and should get a double digit win here. 

We will side with Memphis at home plus the points over the LA Clippers. It's hard to believe only a few games separate these two in the standings yet the Clippers are double digit chalks on the road. That is mainly due to the Grizz have several key injuries to starters Gasol and Conley but Zach Randolph is expected back tonight. Memphis though should get some production from a few Clipper castoffs who are the types of players that hold grudges. Lance Stephenson has averaged over 23PPG, 8RPG and nearly 6 assists per game his last four games while another former Clipper, Matt Barnes has averaged 16PPG and over 8 boards per game his last five.  Memphis has not been a double digit home dog this year and the largest number they've faced this year at home was 7-points against the Golden State Warriors. Now they're catching 10+ against L.A.? The Clippers have not done well when laying a lot of points this year as they are just 4-10 ATS laying 9+ points while Memphis is 3-2 ATS when catching more than 10 points this season. The Grizzlies have also been a solid bet all season rebounding at home off a SU loss (as they are here) with a 12-4 SU record at home. Memphis has cashed in on 11 of the last thirteen meetings with the Clippers and we expect that trend to continue. Grab the points.

Tonight we side with the Miami Heat minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets. Both teams have plenty to play for as they jockey for position in the East but scheduling and a few other pertinent dynamics favor Miami here. Charlotte is playing their 2nd of a back to back having played Orlando last night and this will be their 3rd game in four nights. Miami on the other hand has been off since Monday and this will be just their 3rd game since last Saturday. Miami has an edge at home where they are 22-12 SU with an average point differential of +3.9PPG. The Heat have won 6 of their last seven at home with the lone loss coming against the Golden State Warriors and all six of those wins have come by more than tonight's spread.  Charlotte is a respectable 12-19 SU away from home with a negative or minus -2.5PPG differential and they've played 7 straight home games. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two team with Miami holding a 2-1 advantage with a double digit home  win early in the year. In their last five games on the road against winning teams the Hornets are 2-3 SU and both wins were over a Pacers team that was struggling at the time. Miami is 8-4 ATS versus division opponents while Charlotte is just 5-7 ATS. In their last game the Heat had six players score 17 or more points and another with 11 which is incredible balance whereas the Hornets rely mainly on Kemba Walker for most of their scoring. We like Miami here by 10+. Lay it. 

#503 - Detroit Pistons +4 over Charlotte Hornets - 6PM CT

Tonight we will side with the Detroit Pistons and the points over host Charlotte. At first glance these two teams are both running hot right now but looking closer we feel Charlotte's run is a little misleading based on who they've beaten. The Hornets are 8-2 SU their last 10 games but the two losses came to teams with winning records (Hawks and Cavs) and they only have two wins over a team with winning record (Indiana) in that stretch.  Detroit on the other hand is 6-2 SU their last eight games with wins over Toronto, Portland and Dallas. Toronto and Portland are better than Charlotte in our power rankings while Dallas is a little worse. Detroit is better than the league average in road point differentials at -3PPG and  have two won  3 of their last five away. This will be just the second meeting of the season for these two teams with Charlotte winning the first match up at home by 20. The Pistons get a measure of revenge here and pull the upset. 

We will play on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. The Toronto Raptors have quietly put together a very good season and have the second best overall record in the East, 2.5 games behind division leading Cleveland. Toronto is 24-7 SU at home this season but more importantly for our  wager tonight they have an average point differential of +6.6 PPG which is the 5th highest average in the NBA. The Raptors also seem to focus more when winning teams come to town as they are 10-3 ATS at home against teams with winning records. Atlanta is playing really well right now having won 3 of their last four which have all been played on the road but we expect that tough travel schedule to catch up to them here. The Hawks just played in Utah (29-35 SU) on Tuesday and were 2-point underdogs to the Jazz. Now the Raptors who arguably are the best team in the East at 42-20 is laying a basket more than Utah. A big edge in this game will be rebounding for the Raptors who are one of the best in the league while Atlanta is one of the worst. Toronto has covered 5 of the last six meetings and get a double digit win here. 

We will play UNDER in the NY Knicks vs. Phoenix Suns game. Based on how both teams are currently trending we expect a low scoring game here tonight. In terms of offensive efficiency (OEFF) both teams have been bad on the season with New York ranking 19th and Phoenix 29th and in their last five games the numbers haven't changed much as  they've basically flipped spots. Overall defensively both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in DEFF but in their last five games they've allowed less points per possession and a lot of that is due to solid shooting defense. The Suns have held foes to just 42.1% shooting their last five games while New York has held teams to an average of 43.9%. On the season the Knicks are one of the slowest paced teams in the league while Phoenix has been one of the fastest. But recently the Suns are playing much slower and are close to the league average their last five games. The Knicks played last night in Denver and won't want this game turning into a transition game. In fact, the Knicks have stayed 'under' the total in five straight when coming off a game the night before. Phoenix hasn't won many games so when they have a chance to they seem to play lower scoring games. When facing a team with a losing record the Suns have stayed 'under' in five straight games. 

Tonight we play on the LA Clippers minus the points over the host Dallas Mavericks. At first glance you might be asking why we would lay points on the road against the Mavs here but we feel the situation warrants it. First of all, just 2 weeks ago the Mavs hosted a similar Thunder team and was also a 5-point dog which makes this a comparable point spread. In fact, earlier this year the Clippers were favored by -6.5 points on this floor. The Mavs are also in a tough scheduling situation here as they just played an overtime game in the higher altitude in Denver last night. The  starters, including aging Dirk Nowitzki  saw extended minutes in that game which makes fatigue an issue tonight versus a rested Clippers team. The Clippers are a solid 19-10 SU away from home this season and know what it takes to win on the road. LA is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Hawks and will rebound here. What's significant is how the Clippers respond off of a loss as they have covered 7 in a row in that situation. Dallas is a bit of a mirage as they have just ONE win in their last 20 games over a team with an above .500 record and that was Memphis in OT. The Clippers have won 6 of their last seven on the road. Lay the points!

We will play UNDER in the Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies game. This series has seen some very low scoring games as their teams have been built around defense. In the two meetings already this season these clubs have combined for 179 and 188 total points both of which stayed under the number. Interestingly enough, those two games had totals of 185.5 and 180 yet the oddsmakers have put a number out tonight that is much higher than the one they set in the first two games. VALUE! Looking further back at this series we find that eight straight meetings have all resulted in less total points scored than tonight's O/U line and 9 of the last 12 meetings have stayed under.  Utah has struggled offensively in four straight games, failing to top 96 points in all four. These two teams are two of the SLOWEST paced teams in the NBA as the Grizz average just 93 possessions per game (29th) while the Jazz are last or 30th at 91 possessions per game. Memphis has been in some higher scoring games of late but they've faced some of the worst defensive teams in the league which has skewed their numbers. Both Utah and Memphis are top 6 in the league in least amount of points scored per game and we expect both defenses to dominate tonight. BET UNDER!

We will play UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams played last night which impacts tonight's game as these two teams average the least amount of points scored per game when playing without rest.  San Antonio games average just 193PPG when playing the second night of a back to back compared to 197PPG when playing on 1 day rest, 204 on 2 days and 198 on 3 days rest. New Olreans games average 205PPG on the second night of a back to back which is lower than 207PPG on 1 day rest, 216 on 2 days rest and 208 on 3 days rest. San Antonio has the best overall defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency ratings as they allow just .978 points per possession and 92.3PPG. In their last five games they've held foes to under 43% shooting and 91.2PPG. The Spurs defensive efficiency rating is significant because we can compare them to other great defensive teams in the league when they face the Pelicans. If we take the top 8 DEFF teams in the league and what the results were when they faced the Pelicans we find this: In 13 meetings with similar teams the Pelicans and that opponent scored less than tonight's total (in regulation) 11 times.  Those 13 games averaged 201 total points per game which is clearly less than tonight's number.  The Spurs and Pelicans have met twice this season and produced 207 and 194 total points.  The Spurs are one of the slower paced teams in the league and they'll dictate tempo here. Bet UNDER!

We will play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS  over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Kings have lost three straight games and it would seem they are starting a late season swoon but that's not the case. Take a look at who the Kings have lost two recently. San Antonio, LA Clippers and Thunder who are 3 of the four best teams in the NBA. Looking  at the Memphis Grizzlies schedule they have won 3 of their last four games but look at who they beat...Denver, and the Lakers twice. In between those wins was a loss to the Suns who are one of the worst teams in the league. Looking at the point spread on this game and we see the Grizzlies were just favored at home by about the same number against the 19-41 Minnesota Timberwolves. The Kings are coming off a game against the Thunder in which they scored 72 points in the paint which is a ridiculously high number so what do you think they'll do against a Memphis team without Marc Gasol. Sacramento is the 2nd highest scoring team in the paint in the league. Granted Memphis is first in the league in least amount of points scored in the lane but that was with Gasol for most of the season.  The Grizzlies don't have much of a home court advantage as evidenced by their point differential +0.2PPG which is in the bottom third of the league.  Grabbing the points with the Kings is the way to go here!

We will play on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points over the host Washington Wizards. A lot to do with this handicap is the scheduling as the Sixers catch the Wiz off a HUGE win over the Cleveland Cavaliers yesterday so it would be natural to let down here against a lowly 76ers team they just beat on the 26th. Washington had a make-up game right after the All-Star break so this will be their 8th game in just 12 days so fatigue becomes a factor. Philly also played yesterday and were blown out early by Orlando which is actually good news for us seeing the starters didn't log a lot of minutes for them. These same two teams just met in Philly with the Wizards winning by 9 points as a -7.5 point road favorite. That game was close throughout as the 76ers were only down 4-points entering the 4th quarter and the largest lead by Washington was 10-points. Washington has been a double-digit favorite just once all season and it's obvious they are over-priced here. I hate taking bad teams but will make the exception tonight. Grab the points!

UNDER 203 Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks - 7:35PM CT - We are going to play UNDER in the Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks game. The public is all in on the 'over' in this game and we'll go the other way as the line isn't fluctuating much even though the money is on 'over'.  It's getting later in the season and games have playoff implications which means better defense as these paid athletes play harder on that end of the floor. The Pistons and Bucks are both battling for the post season and both should step it up today defensively.  In their last five games the Bucks have been much better defensively holding foes to just 41.8% shooting while allowing just .992 points per possession which would be the second best number in the NBA over the last five games. Detroit has the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the league over their last five games allowing just 1.104PPP. When playing with 2 days rest the Pistons are better yet defensively with their games averaging just 195.3PPG.  Detroit has stayed under the number in 5 of their last six overall and the Bucks are 4-1 to the under when allowing 100+ points in their previous game. In the two meetings between these clubs this season they combined for 197 twice and they have not combined for more than today's total in six straight meetings. Value is on the UNDER!