ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 LA Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - When I started writing the analysis on this game the number was 220 but has since dropped to the current total but we still have value with the Under. The Lakers got Anthony Davis back who instantly give the Lakers a defensive presence in the paint and a rim protector they’ve been lacking. The Lakers have also focused on the defensive end of the court in recent games with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in their last five games. That’s a drastic improvement compared to their season rank of 14th. L.A. has also made a point of playing slower in recent games. On the season the Lakers average 100.4 possessions per game which ranks 3rd most, but in their last five games that number dips to 14th at 98.3 possession per game. Philly is also playing much slower with the 4th slowest tempo in the NBA over their last five games and on the season. The 76ers are 8th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 105.7, have the 13th best 3-point percentage defense and overall FG% defense. The Sixers are also missing one of their top offensive threats in this game with Seth Curry sidelined. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court and we see another low scoring game here.

ASA top play on 9* UNDER 217 Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Mavs are coming off one of their worst defensive showings of the season when they allowed 130 points to the Warriors last night. Dallas is 14-33-1 UNDER on the season and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last nine games and 13 of their last fifteen. On the season the Mavericks are 5th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.072-points per possession. Dallas is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league at 95.8 possessions per game. The Blazers are slightly faster than the Mavs when it comes to pace but still rank as the 13th slowest in the NBA. The Mavs rank 22nd in offensive efficiency ratings and won’t take advantage of a poor Blazers defense. Portland has struggled offensively all season ranking 17th in offensive efficiency after finishing 2nd in that category a year ago. These are two poor shooting teams with the Blazers ranking 23rd in FG% offense, Dallas checks in at 20th with both teams shooting under 45%. Dallas is coming off a game last night and they are 8-0 UNDER this season when playing without rest and those games finished with only 200 total points. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Spurs and back the Grizzlies in this matchup. First off, the line on this game looks “fishy” and higher than it should be. San Antonio was just a +1-point home underdog against Brooklyn and Philadelphia and are now catching 4 or more points here? Vegas clearly wants you to bet on the Spurs so in contrarian fashion we will back Memphis. The Spurs are coming off a game last night in Houston and played their best basketball of the season. But now they are unrested playing the second night of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in four nights and 8th game in only 13 nights. Fatigue will be a major factor tonight. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss on the 23rd in Dallas so they are rested and hungry for a W. The Grizz are 6-2 SU with 2 days rest this season while the Spurs are 4-5 SU without rest. Memphis is significantly better in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency with a 15-8 SU road record to their credit. Spurs are on an 0-5 ATS streak as a dog, Grizzlies have covered 4 straight off a spread loss. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210 Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These teams are easily two of the best defensive clubs in the NBA currently with the Warriors ranking 1st in defensive efficiency allowing 1.029-points per possession, Dallas is 4th at 1.067PPP. In their most recent 5 games the Mavs are 1st in DEFF, the Warriors are 4th. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the NBA in pace of play with the Warriors ranking 19th, Dallas 23rd. The Mavericks have stayed Under in 8 straight games and 13 of their last fourteen. Golden State has also favored the Under with a 7-4 record their last eleven games overall, with 5 of their last six at home staying below the number. When these two teams met earlier this month, they combined for 181 total points. Bet Under.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9 over Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz have struggled offensively of late with Donovan Mitchell sidelined. The Jazz managed just 92 points last night against the Warriors and put up 111 in games against Houston and Detroit who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Utah has the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA for the season but in the last five games they slip to 10th. It will be especially tough to score tonight against a Suns team that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing .995-points per possession. The red-hot Suns have won 9 of their last ten games and five straight with the average margin of victory in those five games coming by 15.4PPG. This is a really tough spot for the Jazz who are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days AND 6th game in nine days. These same two teams met again in Utah on Wednesday so expect the Suns to make a statement here.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly making some noise in the East with an overall 26-20 record, while the Hawks have disappointed at 20-25. On the season the Hawk are 9-14 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG which ranks 20th. A large reason why Atlanta has struggled away from home is their defensive efficiency ratings which is 2nd to last in the NBA. Charlotte has the 9th best average point differential in the league at home at +4.4PPG. They have the 5th best home OEFF numbers which is clearly a significant advantage against the Hawks D. Charlotte has won 7 of their last eight games with impressive wins against the Bucks (twice), at Philly and at Boston. Atlanta has won three in a row but all three were at home. Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 meetings with Atlanta in Charlotte.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams met Jan 14th in Indiana and that game finished with 206 total points which finished well Under the number of 219.5. The Pacers managed just 94 points in the contest and that was with their full complement of players. Indiana just played and beat Golden State on the road with their top 6 players out of the lineup. The bench and role players stepped up for that game but don’t expect a repeat performance. A big anomaly in the game against GST was the Pacers 3-point shooting as they made 15 of 35 3’s. Indiana is 26th in the NBA in 3-point percentage shooting and won’t have another big night from beyond the arc against the Suns defense which is 3rd in points allowed, 1st in FG% D, 5th in 3pt% D and 8th in rebounding. The Pacers are 17th in scoring this year averaging 108.3PPG. Phoenix allows the 5th fewest points per game at home this season where their games have averaged 216 total points. Indiana’s road games have averaged 214 total points. Both teams are trending around average in pace of play their last five games so it won’t be an up-and-down affair. This shapes up to be an easy UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks, 7:35 PM ET - Let’s start with the pace of play for both teams. The Knicks are THE slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.1 possessions per game, the Pelicans are 21st slowest at 97.1. Most recently in their last five games both are playing slower yet. New York gives up the 6th fewest points per game in the league and New Orleans is 24th in scoring. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.092-points per possession, New Orleans is 25th at 1.082PPP. These are two of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 43.8% for New York and 43.7% for the Pelicans. The Knicks are on a 7-0 UNDER run when they are favored, the Pelicans are 5-1 UNDER in their last six overall. We don’t see this game getting over 205 total points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SACRAMENTO KINGS -6 over Detroit Pistons - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here with the Pistons coming off a marquee game versus the Warriors on Tuesday night. When playing without rest the Pistons are 2-5 SU this season with a net differential of minus -17PPG. Detroit is 3-18 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.8PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.147PPP. Sacramento hasn’t been great at home this year with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG and a 12-15 SU record but they have won 3 of their last six at home with quality wins over the Lakers and Heat included. The Kings most recent home game was a disappointing loss to the Rockets who shot incredibly well for the game at 54% overall and 40% from 3. The Kings have been off since Sunday and are 3-0 ATS +10PPG when in this scheduling situation. Detroit is playing the 2nd of a B2B, 3rd in four nights and 4th in 6 days.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - First off we’ll apologize for this shorter analysis but its football Sunday and time is limited. This game features two of the top 12 teams in scoring this season with both averaging over 109PPG. GST is 11th in offensive efficiency at 1.113-points per possession and 12th in overall pace of play on the year. Minnesota is 6th in pace and will want to play fast here at home. Most recently, in their last five games the Wolves have the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.170PPP. The Wolves are on a 5-0 Over streak against a team with a winning record, Golden State is on a 4-0 Over run against teams with a losing record. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished with more than 233 total points. Yes, we know there is not Steph Curry here, but they do have Klay Thompson back in the mix and their best defender Draymond Green is out. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 209 Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are coming off big games last night so we expect both defenses to be lax here in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. This Total is set significantly lower than the league average of points scored of 216.8PPG. Miami relies on their 3-point shooting on offense with the 2nd best league average at 37.8%. The Heat have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA right now in the last five games at 1.214PPP. The 76ers have also been highly efficient in their last five averaging 1.126PPP which is 10th best in the league. Over their last five games the Sixers are shooting 47.9% which is up from their season average of 46.1%. As we mentioned before, this is the second game of a back-to-back and these two teams combined are OVER 8-1-1 when playing without rest and those games averaged 216.8 and 220.8PPG. The Bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game here between the Raptors and Pistons with a predicted finish of 220+ by our computer analytics. Toronto is coming off a defensive grinder against the Suns and will be eager to get their offensive rhythm back prior to a much bigger game tomorrow night versus the Bucks. The Raptors were averaging 118PPG in their 6 previous games before facing a Suns defense that is 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.049-points per possession. Toronto’s 9th best offensive efficiency should have a much easier time scoring tonight against a Pistons defense that ranks 22nd in DEFF and allows 111.3PPG which is 24th. Looking at the Pistons last ten games we see they’ve allowed 133, 140 and 144 points so the potential for a really big number from Toronto is not out of question. Detroit is one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA but they are the 8th fastest which means plenty of possessions. The Raptors aren’t much better defensively than the Pistons as they give up 1.118-points per possession which ranks 20th in the NBA. These two teams met in November and put up 248 points. It won’t be that high tonight but it will be more than the 214 set by the oddsmakers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - This number is set slightly lower than the average NBA total right now of 216.6PPG but our math model suggests that this game will not get 210. It starts with pace for both teams with the Clippers checking in at 15th and the Pelicans slower yet at 20th. In their most recent 5 games both are playing slower yet and that shouldn’t change here. If we look at LA’s last five games, we see they are 28th in offensive efficiency at 1.016-points per possession, shooting just 42.9% from the field. New Orleans has been one of the worst offenses in the NBA this season averaging 105.7PPG on 43.7% shooting (26th) and 33.8% 3-point shooting which is 23rd. The Clippers have a top 8 defense in FG% D, 3PT% D and points allowed, giving up 105.3PPG. The Pels have some bad defensive numbers of late but the games they’ve allowed teams to score big numbers have come against some of the league’s elite offenses (Wolves, Suns, Jazz, Bucks) who all rank top 11 in scoring. The Clippers are 23rd in the NBA in average points per game. This is an UNDER BET!

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this bet as the Bulls are playing their 4th game in seven days and the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight when they face the Nets. Of course, playing status can change throughout the day but as of now the Nets will have their Big 3 in the lineup with Irving, Durant and Harden. The Nets had won 3 straight road games prior to a loss in Portland the other night, but they were without Harden. The Bulls have been a great surprise this season and are playing well but their 9-1 SU results recently are misleading. In their last nine wins, only one has come against a team with a winning record (Washington 21-20 SU) and they lost the lone game against a winning team in Dallas. Brooklyn is looking up at the Bulls in the standings and have lost to them twice already this season making this game a little more important for them. The glaring advantage the Nets have in this game is their 3-point defense which is 1st in the league compared to the Bulls which ranks 20th.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Any chance we get to back an elite team off a bad loss we’ll consider it and tonight we get that opportunity with the Suns. Phoenix lost their most recent game at home to Miami 100-123, and it was never close. The Suns shot just 38% for the game which was below their season average of 47.3% which is 3rd best in the NBA. Phoenix is 13-4 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +5.4PPG which is also 3rd best in the league. Toronto is playing well right now with 6 straight wins, but we’re not overly impressed with that resume considering the competition included New Orleans, San Antonio, the Knicks and Clippers. The two wins over the Bucks and Jazz in that stretch is misleading as the Bucks were without 3 starters including Giannis and the Jazz sat everyone that game. Toronto really doesn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (12-10 SU) as fans aren’t allowed in Canada. Phoenix is 25-11 SU off since the start of last season with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Easy call with a focused Phoenix team.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 over Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets look like a dumpster fire right now and are in a tough spot here coming off a game yesterday, playing their 3rd game in four days AND facing a rested Sixers team. Houston gave up 141 points last night to Minnesota and continue to be the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Rockets give up 127.8PPG on the season and 1.233-points per possession. Houston is getting beat by an average of -8.6PPG on the season, but in their last five games they have a negative differential of minus -14.4PPG. Philadelphia on the other hand is playing really well right now with a +/- differential of +12.4PPG in their last five games. In that same span of five games the Sixers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers. These two teams just played in Philly earlier this month with the 76ers winning by 20 points. Philadelphia is rested and will be primed for a big road win here. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - Houston is coming off a 106-130 loss to the Mavericks and the significance of that game is the following. The Mavs are one of the slowest pace teams in the NBA ranking 28 out of 30 teams. Minnesota is one of the fastest ranking 8th. Dallas averages just 105.6PPG and they managed 130 versus this Rockets defense which is not a surprise considering Houston ranks 2nd to last in the league in defensive efficiency. In their last five games the Rockets are giving up an average of 124PPG. Minnesota has their Big 3 back on the court with Towns, Russell and Edwards and they’ll play fast and score plenty of point to help this game get Over the number. The Wolves are 14th in scoring this season at 109PPG. Houston is the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA which means plenty of possessions for both teams and more scoring opportunities. When these same two teams met in October, they combined for 230 points. The bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 217 Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - We’ve been successful on several occasions recently with the OVER in the Heat game and will go back to the well today. Without a proven rim protector on defense teams are in attack mode when they face the Heat. Miami averages just 3.1 blocks per game which is last in the NBA and most recently in their last five games that average dips to just 2.0BPG. Miami is allowing over 112PPG in their last five games and their defense efficiency rates near the bottom of the NBA. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Heat though and they recently got two of their best shooters back in the lineup with the return of Duncan and Strus. In the last five games the Heat are scoring 115PPG and have the 5th best offensive efficiency rating. Miami is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA on the year at 37.3% but in their last five games that number improves to 41%. On the other side of the court we have the Suns who rank 3rd overall in scoring this season at 112.4PPG, 8th in offensive efficiency and 5th in pace of play. Phoenix is the 2nd best shooting team in the league at 47.5% and 5th in 3-point percentage at 36.9%. The Suns have some gaudy offensive numbers in recent games with 123 and 133 points in two of their last three games. This total is set slightly higher than league average of 216.8 and our analytics suggest it will be much higher scoring than that.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - The Spurs are not in a good situation here playing their 5th straight road game and are short-handed without their second and third leading scorers, Kelson Johnson and Derrick White. Also out tonight are key reserves Vassell and Young. The 76ers have a few players out too but have their key players available in Embiid, Harris and Curry. The Sixers are 7-8 SU at home but come into this game having won 5 straight games. Their most recent home game was a 20-point blowout win over the Rockets. San Antonio is 8-12 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. In their last five games the 76ers have some impressive numbers with the 9th best defensive efficiency and the 4th best offensive efficiency rating. In comparison the Spurs are 27th in OEFF their last five games, 17th in DEFF. Lastly, the 76ers have a +12.8PPG average differential their last 5 games and our analytics say that will be the margin here. Bet Philly

ASA top play on 10* OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Pistons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and it showed last night when they allowed 140 points last night to Charlotte. On the season the Pistons allowed 111PPG, are the 29th worst FG% defense, 28th defending the 3-points line and 24th in defensive rebounding. Memphis is quietly putting together a fantastic season having won 6 straight to improve to 25-14 on the year. The Grizzlies are 5th in scoring at 111.3PPG but have averaged over 115PPG in their last six games. Detroit is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 12th so expect plenty of possessions to push this game over the Total.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -10 over Detroit Pistons, 7:10PM ET - This line looks “fishy” in our opinion as if the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet the Pistons. We won’t bite and will side with the Hornets. Detroit is coming off their biggest win of the season, a road victory at Milwaukee. The young Pistons let down here against a Hornets team off two straight losses. Prior to their most recent losses the Hornets had won three straight including a 24-point home win over the Rockets as an 8-point chalk. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -11.4PPG. Charlotte is a respectable 9-5 SU at home with a +1.9PPG +/-. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS at home off a loss this year, Detroit is 1-6 ATS off a win.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - Our handicapping methods have certainly been altered the past few years as you can’t rely solely on statistics to base your wagers. Much of what you do today has to rely on the lineups and who’s playing on any given night. The Raptors don’t have great overall statistics this season as they’ve been dealing with injuries and covid more so than most teams. They are getting back to full strength, and it’s shown in their play with two straight solid wins over the Clippers and Knicks. San Antonio is dealing with covid and injuries with Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker IV joining Dejounte Murray in Covid protocols which means the Spurs will be down their 1st, 5th, and 6th leading scorers. The Raptors have been a strong home team in the past and we like them to get a double-digit win here against a depleted Spurs team.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation as an elite team like the Jazz are off a loss against one of the leagues weaker teams. Utah has nearly everyone back at full strength but the Pels do not as Ingram and Valanciunas are both doubtful tonight. New Orleans was just a -12.5-point underdog at home to the Bucks and lost by 23 points. Utah is 12-3 SU on the road this season with the best average differential of +11.8PPG. The Jazz have the best offensive efficiency numbers away from home and the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers. The Pelicans have the 24th worst average +/- at home and 24th in DEFF on their home court. A motivated Jazz team get a 16-point win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10 PM ET - Both teams are dealing with covid issues or injuries so we don't see either of these teams wanting to get into a track meet here. On the season both have favored lower paced games with the Pacer being the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Cavs are 19th. The Cavaliers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league, holding opponents to 1.051-points per possession. The Pacers have been known for their defense but have slipped this year ranking 19th in DEFF but they do hold opponents to 107.6PPG. Indiana is an average shooting team overall but one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. Cleveland is better offensively but they're also missing several key players from their rotation. The Pacers are now 11-2 their last 13 road games, while the Cavs are on a 7-2 Under streak as a home favorite.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the league average of 216PPG but we expect it to be much higher scoring than that. The Bulls were scoring at will going into their game last night versus Indiana. Chicago had scored 130+ points in 3 of their prior four games and 113 or more in 5 straight before running into the Pacers. Last night the Bulls shot poorly at 41% which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. The Bulls will make more shots tonight against a Wizards team that is 16th in opponents FG% defense and 19th in points allowed per game at 108.5. Washington will get their points too with the 7th best shooting offense in the NBA and they have All-Star Bradley Beal back in the lineup after missing a few games with Covid. Don’t be misled by the Wizards defense in their last game against the Cavaliers where they gave up 93-points because the Cavs were short handed. Prior to that game the Wiz had allowed 116 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. The Bulls are 4-1 Over their last five games playing without rest, while Washington Over 5 of six when coming off a win. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:40PM ET - Both teams are dealing with the “omnicold” protocols with players out which has left each team with shortened rotations. These two teams prefer to play slower to begin with as they rank 19th and 20th in pace of play. Now with limited regular players you can bet neither team will be anxious to get into a run and shoot game here. The Hawks just played two higher scoring games against the Bulls who are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 110PPG. Prior to those two games the Hawks had stayed Under in 3 straight games with less than 202 total points scored in each. Cleveland is really hurting at the point guard position, and it has led to some lower scoring games. The Cavs have totaled less than 215 points in 6 of their last seven games. When these two teams met in October at full strength, they combined for 196 total points which was the 5th straight Under in this series. We are betting that trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards -3.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - This is a wager on the team with “less attrition” as the Cavaliers are decimated at the point guard position right now. The Cavs lost Sexton early on but didn’t miss a beat with Garland and Rubio filling in, but now both of those players are out now too. Cleveland is also missing Osman and Allen, both key rotation players. The Wizard are also shorthanded, but they may be getting Bradley Beal back tonight if he clears protocols. Without Beal the Wizard battled in Miami the other night getting key contributions from Gafford, Kuzma, Dinwiddie and Bertans who all scored 16+ points. Washington has been a solid bet on team at home off a loss this season with a 3-1 ATS record. Cleveland on the road off a loss is 1-3 ATS. The bet here is Washington.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are missing a few key players with either injuries or Covid protocols, but the Pelicans losses are more significant at the moment. The Cavs have had a few games to adjust to without key personnel and the Pels have not. The line on this game is telling us as much and you shouldn’t be scared off by this number considering the Cavs recent success. Cleveland's past 11 wins have come by at least 10 points, and the Cavs lead the Eastern Conference with 15 double-digit victories. Cleveland has the 3rd best average point differential on the road this season at +5.7PPG. The Cavaliers are one of very few teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this season. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans don’t play any. New Orleans is 24th in DEFF ratings allowing 1.123-points per possession. They are 23rd or worse in 3-point field goal percentage defense, 26th in FG% D and 27th in points allowed per game. Cleveland can pull another double digit road win here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - This is a big number, but our model suggests it’s not high enough. Scoring is trending up in the NBA right now and we see this game finishing with more than 232 total points. These two teams recently met and combined for 254 points. There were 193 field goal attempts in the game which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. The Spurs are 6th in pace of play while the Jazz are 11th so we know we will get an up-and-down type of game. The Jazz hold the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA while the Spurs rank 11th. San Antonio has scored 112 or more points in 9 straight games and are coming off a 138-point outing against the Lakers and 144 versus the Pistons. Utah has scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last nine games and 123+ points in 5 of nine. The Jazz are on a 13-4-1 Over run, Spurs Over in 21 of their last 28 at home. The Jazz are without Donovan here and the Spurs are minus Murray but we still like these two teams to score a ton of points here.

ASA top play on 10* PHOENIX SUNS -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 5:10 PM ET - This is certainly a contrarian play as this number doesn’t look right at all. Consider this, the Warriors have been an underdog twice this season. Once recently in Toronto when they sat their starting lineup and again the first game of the season versus the Lakers. The Warriors were recently a 7-point favorite at home against the Suns and won by 22. Phoenix didn’t have Devin Booker in that game and they shot well below their season average by hitting just 38% from the field. The two teams had met in Phoenix prior to that game with the Suns winning by 8-points as a -3.5-point chalk. Phoenix has the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +10.8PPG while the Warriors have a +3.7-point differential on the road. The home team has won 5 straight in this rivalry and all five of those wins came by 6 or more points. Merry Christmas from ASA.

ASA top play on 10* INDIANA PACERS -8.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a big road game in Milwaukee last night and they’ve really struggled when playing without rest. Houston is 0-4 SU on the year when playing the 2nd night of a B2B with a negative differential of minus -17PPG. The Rockets are playing their 6th game in 10 days and 3rd in four nights. Fatigue is going to be a major issue. Indiana is coming off an embarrassing 96-125 loss in Miami on Tuesday night and will be primed for a good effort here. The Pacers are much better than their 13-19 SU record as they rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 16th in DEFF. Houston is 27th in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -6 over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - Thunder off a satisfying win over the Grizzlies who had beaten them earlier this season 152-79 and now let down against the rested Nuggets. Denver has been off since the 17th after their game against the Nets was canceled due to covid. It’s not like OKC has a great home court as they are just 5-10 SU at home this year. The Thunder have the 3rd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Nuggets have the 8th best OEFF on the road and should outscore a Thunder offense at home that is 3rd worst in the league at 1.040PPP. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 220.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Lakers are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA but also one of the least efficient with the 25th ranked OEFF at 1.006 points per possession. For our wager though, the Lakers offense has been better in recent games averaging 1.055PPP which is 6th best. Phoenix also likes to play fast with the 5th fastest tempo in the NBA which means a lot of extra possessions in this game. The Suns are also one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA and average 112PPG. The Lakers are coming off a 51% shooting night and are the 8th best shooting team in the league. Phoenix is 2nd in overall team FG% and 5th in 3-point percentage. This regular season game won’t be like their playoff series of a year ago and we predict plenty of points here for an easy OVER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The value in the number is what has us on this Under as this O/U is set 4-points higher than what it should be according to our math model. Consider this, the Kings just faced the Spurs and Grizzlies who are similar to the Warriors in terms of pace of play, but neither of those teams defend like the Warriors. Golden State in #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.018 points per possession. Oddsmakers had posted O/U numbers on the Kings/Spurs, Kings/Grizzlies games of 227.5 and 221 so in the ballpark of this number. The Kings will have a tough time scoring here with a bottom half of the league offensive efficiency rating and team that doesn’t shoot particularly well at 45.4% overall and 33.5% from 3-point line. Last night the Kings shot 51% from the field and 56% from the 3-point line which was obviously an aberration. Golden State has held 5 of their last ten opponents to 100 or less points and haven’t put up gaudy offensive numbers themselves with 7 games of scoring 107 or less points. With players out for both teams we see this being a low scoring affair. BET UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have made great strides defensively this season and it’s showing in their record. Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 28th a year ago. The Wolves are averaging 108.7PPG which is 12th best in the NBA and are the 10th best rebounding team. Dallas is 26th in scoring this year and the 24th worst offense rebound team in the NBA. Dallas does hold teams to 104.6PPG this year but a lot of that has to do with how slow they play (3rd slowest in the NBA). The Mavs have the 22nd ranked FG% defense in the league. The Wolves have three impressive wins in a row over Portland, Denver and the Lakers most recently by 18-points. The Mavs are coming off a 3-point loss to that same Lakers team. Lay the points with Minnesota.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 over NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - Something isn’t quite right with this number and it looks very much like a trap to bet on the Knicks. So, we’ll side with Boston here minus the points. Granted the Celtics are coming off a game last night, but they also had 3 days off prior to Friday’s action so lack of rest isn’t an issue. The Knicks started the season out hot with a 5-1 SU record in October but since then they’ve struggled with an 8-15 run. In the Knicks most recent nine games they have just 2 wins and they came at the expense of the 9-20 Rockets and 10-17 Spurs. On paper the Celtics look similar to the Knicks with a 1-5 SU record in their last five games but take a look at that schedule. They’ve faced the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Bucks and Warriors. Those five teams all rank top 9 in defensive efficiency and now the Celtics face a New York team that is 22nd in DEFF. Boston has advantages on the offensive end of the floor with the 13th highest scoring average compared to the Knicks 23rd ranked average. New York beat Boston in October at home by 4 in OT and we like the Celtics to get a measure of revenge here with a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 223.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - These two teams are top 11 in the NBA in scoring with the Spurs averaging 108.8PPG while the Jazz put up 115.6PPG but each does it in different manners. The Spurs play fast with the 6th fastest tempo in the NBA while the Jazz play slower but are the #1 efficiency team in the league. San Antonio wants to get out in transition with the 6th best fast break scoring average in the NBA, which has also helped them own the 5th best field goal percentage in the league at 46.7%.. The Jazz are 1st in scoring, 1st in overall FG% and 3rd in 3-point percentage. Utah is averaging 122PPG their last five games with an incredible 1.244-points per possession. Yes, we know the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Spurs are not. In the end, both teams score plenty here for this to get OVER the total.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - The line/money indicators suggest this game is going Over and our math models project 219 points being scored. Phoenix is missing leading scorer Booker but Ayton is back and they have plenty of other options including Chris Paul, Bridges and Crowder. We like the Suns field goal attempts in recent games which has been 93 or more in four straight games. Phoenix is the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA and the home team here which means they get the tempo they want. Washington is off a game last night in Sacramento who is similar to the Suns in pace and offensive efficiency and the Kings scored 119-points. Washington has allowed 113 or more points in 6 of their last seven games and their defensive efficiency in their last five games is 26th worst in the league. When playing without rest this season the Wizards are 4-0 to the Over with those games averaging 225PPG. This one goes OVER rather easily.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +2.5 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Kings are coming off a couple road losses and return home where they had won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The Kings held a player only meeting after the recent 3 game road trip and aired some differences regarding effort amongst the team. Now that they are back at home, we expect a much better effort in this one. Washington meanwhile is coming off a tough game in the higher altitude of Denver on Monday night and will be shorthanded again here without Kyle Kuzma who is in Covid protocol. The Wizards opened the season by winning 6 of their first eleven road games but have since lost four of five away from home. Washington has the 21st worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -3.9PPG. If you look at overall season statistics it shows Washington has an advantage defensively but when you focus on their last five games the Kings have the better defensive efficiency numbers. Offensively the Kings have been better all season long and in their most recent five games too at 1.126-points per possession. Sacramento gets it done tonight at home.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +3 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the home team Blazers as the Suns are off a game last night against the Clippers. That’s significant considering the multitude of injuries the Suns currently have with 6 players out including starters Booker and Ayton. Portland has been much better at home than on the road this year with a 10-5 SU season record and four of those losses have come this month. Portland is coming off a home loss as a favorite and primed for this huge Western Conference showdown. This will be the third meeting of the season with the home team winning both and 6 of the last seven meetings. Phoenix has been dominating this season but that is with a full supporting cast. Not tonight. Bet the Blazers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Wizards are averaging 105.7PPG on the season which ranks 23rd in the NBA. Denver is scoring less at 105.5PPG (24th). Both are near average or below in offensive efficiency and each rank 17th or worse in 3-point shooting under 34.6%. When it comes to defensive efficiency numbers the Nuggets rank 15th and Washington is 19th so again near average. The key here is the pace of play as both like to play slow. The Nuggets are 28th in pace of play at 96 possessions per game, Washington is 24th at 96.1. Denver is coming off two straight high scoring games but that was against the fast paced Spurs team. The Under is 4-0 the last four meetings in Denver between these two teams. Bet UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 218 Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz are quietly flying under the radar right now with everyone focused on the Suns and the Warriors in the West, but Utah has won 6 straight and 10 of their last twelve. In the most recent 6 game winning streak they have averaged 126PPG with an efficiency rating of 1.288PPP. The Wizards have seen their scoring go up in their last five games averaging 107PPG compared to their season average of 105PPG. Washington has also allowed more in their most recent games allowing 111PPG their last five. Both teams can shoot it with the Jazz holding the #1 FG percentage in the NBA at 47.9% while the Wizards are 9th at 46.2%. The Jazz are on a 5-1 Over streak, Washington is Over in 6 of their last seven. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - I’ll start by saying this, I hate betting on the Lakers as I simply don’t trust them to play hard every night, which is a byproduct of their best player not being the hardest worker in the gym. Tonight I will make an exception as I do feel the Lakers will put forth a maximum effort against the Thunder. OKC has beaten the Lakers twice this season and came from behind in both after trailing by 19 and 26 in each game. Those embarrassing losses should have L.A. focused tonight, not to mention they are coming off a loss last night to Memphis. The Lakers were just a 4-point favorite in Memphis and are now laying just 5-points to the 8-win Thunder. OKC has won two straight, but one of those came at the 4-20 Pistons expense, while the other was against a Raptors team coming off two big wins over Washington and Milwaukee. Prior to their two wins the Thunder had lost 8 straight, two of which came against a bad Rockets team. The Lakers have a slight edge in defensive efficiency and huge advantage offensively as they rank 5th in scoring compared to an OKC team averaging just 99.3PPG which ranks 30th in the NBA.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3 over Boston Celtics, 10:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Celtics who are coming off a marquee game against the Lakers last night and are playing their 4th game in 6 days. The Clippers have had two days off and will be the much fresher team in this match up. The Clippers have underachieved thus far, but they have won 3 of their last four games including a pair of road wins against the Lakers and Blazers. The Celtics are 7-7 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those wins came against a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 40-22 SU their last 62 home games with a +/- differential of plus +5.8PPG. The bet here is the Clippers as a low favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - The Mavericks have potential injuries to Luka and Porzingis and even if they do play we like the visiting Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Saturday (which we called) and is very good off a “beat” this season with a 6-0 record. Brooklyn’s James Harden has not shot it well this season but a return to the state of Texas may do wonders for his confidence. Brooklyn is better on both ends of the court in this matchup with the 5th ranked defensive efficiency compared to the Mavericks 18th ranked unit. Offensively the Nets also have the advantage offensively ranking 11th in OEFF compared the Mavs who rank 21st. The Nets are 8-2 SU away from home this season with the 3rd best overall point differential of ++6.7PPG. The Mavs have lost two straight at home to inferior teams and this will be their 3rd.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - Scoring is starting to trend up in the NBA after a slow start to the season. The league average of a NBA game is currently 215PPG and we see this game as above average in terms of scoring and predict 222 total points. These teams have met once this season already and combined for 246 points in regulation. Washington has gone Over in 4 of their last five games and all of those four Overs finished with 215 or more points. Indiana has also favored the Over in recent games with a 5-1 record and all five of those finished with 211 or more points. Wizards on a 4-1 Over streak on the road, Pacers 5-0 Over their last five at home. The analytics say this game will be slightly higher scoring than league average. Bet Over.

ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -4.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:40 PM ET - There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Suns and Warriors as the best teams in the NBA but don’t sleep on this Jazz team. Even though they have 7 losses this season they are 8th in overall defensive efficiency and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise this season and are doing it on the defensive end of the court with the 3rd best DEFF in the NBA. The difference between these two teams though is on the offensive end of the court where the Cavs rank 18th in OEFF. The Jazz have the best road differential in the NBA this season at +8.4PPG and they’ll win by at least that margin here.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings pick’em over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This is an interesting scheduling situation as these two teams just met on December 1st with the Kings winning on the road 124-115. Since then, the Kings have been off and resting while the Clippers are coming off an emotional game against the Lakers last night. L.A. is their 4th game in five nights and the second of a back-to-back so fatigue becomes a factor. In fact, the Clippers are 0-4 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. The Clippers have played a home-heavy schedule this season with 13 of their last 15 played on their home court, the two road games they played in that stretch were losses at New Orleans and Memphis. The Kings are the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA and are capable of scoring with anyone. The Clippers are 19th in scoring and the 20th ranked shooting team in the league. Scheduling favors the Kings here to get a solid home win.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These two teams just met on Tuesday with the Suns winning at home 104-96. That game stayed well below the total of 221 and we feel this game does too. Phoenix lost their best offensive player Devin Booker (23PPG, 4.5APG) early in that game and he’ll be out the entire game tonight with a pulled hamstring. These two teams feature two of the best overall defenses in the NBA as the Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 2nd. Golden State has the #1 rated field goal percentage defense allowing just 42.3% on the season, the Suns are 6th allowing 43.4%. The last 8 times the Suns have been a road underdog the Under has cashed in 6 of those. The Warriors are on a 4-0 Under run and 9 of the last ten meetings has been an Under.

ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +2 over Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - We are betting value here with the Knicks as a home dog. These two teams met on Nov. 21st in Chicago and the Bulls were favored by -5.5-points and are now laying 2 on the road which doesn’t add up. New York was also just a +4-point dog at home against the Suns who have won 17 straight games. Chicago is off a home win, New York is off a road loss. We expect the revenge minded Knicks to get payback here. The Bulls have failed to cover here in 4 straight visits and are 3-7 ATS the last ten clashes.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - This will be a tough spot for the Kings. The Kings are playing their 5th game in 8 days, 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of a B2B. When playing without rest this season the Kings are 1-2 SU/ATS. The Clippers are rested and coming off two straight home losses but one was to the red hot Warriors. On Monday the Clippers were embarrassed at home by the Pelicans. Pels center Valanciunas had a monster 39/15 game. LA is solid off a loss with a 23-19 ATS record, their last 42 in that role with a +6.2PPG differential. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive end of the court where the Clippers rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Kings rank 26th. Also, the Kings are the 25th worst 3-pt shooting team in NBA, Clippers 12th best. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings with the Kings.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Blazers are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Utah and playing their 5th game in seven days. Detroit was off on Monday after playing the L.A. on Sunday. The Pistons have been competitive in their two most recent road games losing by 4-points to the Lakers and 11 to the Clippers. If we look at the Blazers last four home games, all wins, but they took advantage of the Nuggets and 76ers with injuries and barely beat the Bulls and Raptors by 5-points each. Detroit is on a 4-1 ATS streak and continues to be undervalued by the oddmakers. Portland is 2-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -1.3PPG. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Pacers are unrested here after a game on Sunday against the Bucks. That factors in here as the Pacers are 4-0 Under their last four when playing without rest. In those four games played without rest the Pacers games averaged 200-total points per contest. Indiana ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and give up 106PPG. Minnesota has been a big surprise this season and a lot of their success is a result of their defensive intensity. Minnesota is 11th in DEFF this season which is significantly higher than the 27th ranked unit they featured a year ago. In 7 of their last ten games they have held opponents to 101 or less points. The Wolves are 26th in team field goal percentage and the Pacers are 20th in 3-point percentage. Indiana is 8-1 Under their last nine away from home. Wolves Under in 9 of their last 12 home games. BET UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212 Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We have a match up of two teams that both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (Heat 4th, Bulls 10th) and points allowed per game as the Heat give up 102.4PPG, Bulls 104.6PPG. The pace of this game shouldn’t be fast as the Bulls are average in possession per game while the Heat are 27th and one of the slowest in the NBA. Chicago played a game last night against the Magic and allowed 88-points. When playing without rest the Bulls have averaged only 196 total points. The Heat have 1 day rest and playing in that scenario they average 206.4PPG. Last season when NBA games averaged 224 total points these two teams played in three low scoring affairs with totals of 212, 207 and 191. With NBA scoring down this season to 214 we expect even less scoring in this game. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors who are coming off a solid road win, while the Pacers are off a disappointing OT home loss to the Lakers. This will be the Raptors 6th straight road game and they are just 2-4 SU in those recent away games. Indiana is 4-1 SU their last five home games and also 3-1 ATS this season at home when off a loss. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Raptors winning both meetings so we expect the revenge minded Pacers to get a solid home win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - Look out NBA, here come the Minnesota Timberwolves! The Wolves are playing well right now with 4 straight wins and 5 in their last six games. That streak has been fueled by a stingy defense allowing less than 100-points in 5 straight games and 6 of their last seven. Minnesota catches the Heat coming off a game last night in Detroit so fatigue becomes an issue on the offensive end of the court for Miami. The Heat have totaled less than 212 total points in 4 straight games and are once again one of the best defensive teams in the league. Miami has allowed less than 105 points in 6 straight games and have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Minnesota is 9th in DEFF for the season which is a DRAMATIC improvement over last year’s numbers and they have the best DEFF in the NBA over the last 5 games. Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA over their last five games while Minnesota is 14th slowest. This shapes up to be a defensive battle with a very low total. BET UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We can’t add a ton of statistical support to this game as the Bucks have been dealing with several key injuries to start the season with starters Lopez, Middleton, Holiday and Giannis all missing games. Statistically there isn’t support this season but last year the Bucks were 36-11 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.9PPG. OKC was 12-24 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -9.2PPG. Recently the Thunder were just a 9-point home dog to Brooklyn and got beat by 24-points. The line on that game clearly shows us this number on the Bucks at home isn’t out of line. Let’s also consider Milwaukee was just a 9-point home favorite over the Lakers. The Bucks are still without Lopez but everyone else and they won’t be looking past this OKC team with Orlando on deck. Bucks by 20.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over LA Clippers, 8:10 PM ET - The Clippers are 9-5 SU on the season, but they’ve benefited from playing 10 of those games at home. The Clippers record is very misleading because of the favorable schedule, and they have just 2 wins over teams with a winning record and one of those came against Charlotte who is 9-7. One of LA’s losses this season came at home against this Memphis team 114-120. The young Grizzlies are still trying to figure out how to be more consistent, but they seem to get up for the league’s best teams. Memphis has beaten this Clippers team, the Warriors and Denver twice. LA has a long injury list right now with three key players banged up as Morris, Batum and Mann are on the injured list. Memphis comes into this game rested, off a solid home win and healthy. Our computers has the Grizzlies favored by 3-points in this game so grab the value with Memphis.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -4 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - At first glance it looks like it would be hard to bet against the Celtics who are on 7-0 ATS streak but all streaks come to an end. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games – but the 6 spread losses came against some of the league's best teams. @Denver, @Utah, @Golden State, @ Phoenix, Utah and @ Brooklyn. Atlanta came home off that tough West coast trip and drubbed the Bucks by 20 and the Magic by 18 at home. The venue has a lot to do with this wager. The Hawks have the 4th best average point differential at home of +11.9PPG, with a 5-1 record. Last year the Hawks were 25-11 SU at home +6.3PPG. They had the 6th best offensive efficiency numbers at home (1.173PPP) and 13th best home defensive efficiency (1.109PPP). Boston 5-4 SU away this season but were 15-21 SU away from home a year ago with a negative differential of -0.1PPG. The Hawks have covered 23 of their last 27 home games as a favorite and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - Let’s get this out of the way immediately, the Blazers haven’t won a road game this season 0-6. But the young Rockets have just one win on the season with a 1-10 SU record. Houston has the 5th worst average differential of minus -7.5PPG whereas Portland is +0.9PPG. Portland is far superior offensively with the 7th best offensive efficiency rating compared to the Rockets who rank 27th. Defensively these two teams are similar with Houston ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and Portland 23rd. The Blazers are off two tough road losses against a pair of the best teams in the West and step way down in talent here against the Rockets. Besides their lone home win of the season over a bad OKC team, the Rockets have lost every other home game by 8 or more points. Portland gets a big road win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216 Indiana Pacers vs Utah Jazz 9 PM ET - The Pacers are in a really tough spot here after playing in Denver last night. It’s a small sample size but Indiana has played two games this season without rest and those two games both stayed below the number and averaged 192 total points. Last night the Pacers faced a Denver defense that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they managed just 98 points. Utah is the 5th best team in the league based on efficiency ratings. Utah has allowed 107 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. These two teams are 19th and 20th in pace of play so don’t expect them to play fast here. Scoring continues to be down this year as games are averaging just 214PPG and this total is higher than that. Indiana has scored 110 or less points in 8 of their last ten and the Under has cashed 4 straight on Pacer games, 6 of their last seven. Utah Under in 6 of their last 8. This game stays below the number.

ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks -3 over Milwaukee Bucks 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks benefit from rest while the Bucks are off a game last night in Philly and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Bucks are shorthanded without Middleton and Lopez out of the lineup and the lack of rest is magnified here. Milwaukee is 4-6 SU on the season and not playing well right now with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings 18th or worse. In comparison, the Bucks were the #1 DEFF team a year ago and 6th in OEFF. New York is 3rd in offensive efficiency this season and have improved dramatically on that end of the court. The Bucks struggled to beat a shorthanded 76ers team on Tuesday night and now face a Knicks team that beat them by 15 points in Milwaukee on Nov 5th. Milwaukee is on a 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest and New York has won 3 of the last four meetings. The bet here is the Knicks as a short favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 9:10 PM ET - Atlanta is coming off a big game in Golden State last night while Utah is rested but off two straight losses. The Jazz beat the Hawks last week in Atlanta by 18-points but then lost in Miami and then suffered an embarrassing loss at Orlando. In their previous meeting the Jazz beat Atlanta handily without their best player Donovan Mitchell. Atlanta comes into this game playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. The Hawks are 6-10-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. The Jazz have the 3rd best overall Margin of Victory average this year at +9.1PPG, which improves to +13PPG at home. Given the scheduling we won’t be scared off by this number and will back the home team minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 8-1 SU while the Hawks are a disappointing 4-6 SU. A major factor in those results are the strength of schedule for both teams as the Warriors have played the 28th easiest schedule, while the Hawks have faced the 8th toughest. In their last six games the Hawks have faced Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, Washington twice and Philadelphia. They are coming off a loss Saturday in Phoenix by 4 as a +3.5-point dog. In comparison the Warriors last four wins have come against Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte and OKC who are a combined 10-30 SU and none have a winning record. Despite the tough schedule the Hawks have a negative differential of -2.2PPG which will get us a cover here. Golden State is coming off a game last night and will be playing their 3rd in four days. Golden State was 6-9 ATS last season when playing without rest with a negative differential of -5PPG. Easy call with the Hawks here.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - Miami continues to play at a very high level while Boston is not. The Heat are 6-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in OT in Indiana. Miami has the highest average point differential in the NBA at +16.7PPG, are 2nd in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoy a scheduling advantage of being off last night. Boston on the other hand is 19th in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency with the 21st worst average point differential in the league. The Celtics are also coming off a game last night. Boston has 3 wins on the season and two of those have come against Houston and Orlando who a combined 3-13 SU this season. The Heat are on a 5-0 spread run while Boston is 0-5 ATS their last five as a road dog. Back the better team, laying a marginal number at home against an over-rated opponent.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - If I gave you one guess who the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is you’ll probably say Golden State. That’s a good guess, but the answer is actually the Charlotte Hornets at 41.1%. The Hornets are the highest scoring team in the league at 117.5PPG and look a little like the Warriors of old. Don’t get me wrong, the Warriors are still a upper echelon team but they’ve won a few close games with their of their wins this season coming by 8 points or less. Charlotte has quality wins this season against Portland and Brooklyn and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Last season these two teams played a pair of tight contests with the Warriors winning by 9 at home and Charlotte winning by 2 on their floor. The Hornets have covered 4 straight when coming off a loss and we’ll back them here with the points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Sacramento King, 9:10 PM ET - At first glance you might think this is a high number but in reality, it’s low based on their meeting on October 22nd when the Jazz were favored by 6-points in Sacramento. Utah won that game by 9-points. Utah is 5-1 SU on the season with the 2nd best average margin of victory at +12.8PPG. The Kings are 3-3 SU with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Jazz are far superior in terms of defensive efficiency as they rank 3rd while the Kings are 25th. The Kings have matchup issues here as they’ve lost 5 straight to Utah with last year’s three wins coming by 22, 49 and 16-points. Lay the points with Utah.

ASA top play on 10* #542 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from last week when the Wizards beat the Hawks by 11-points in Washington. The interesting part of that games is the fact that the Hawks were -4-points IN Washington and are now laying -5.5-points here. The Hawks shot 55% in the game but the Wiz made 8 more free throws and 7 more 3-pointers. Atlanta then followed up that loss with a horrible showing against the Sixers and a 28-point loss. Back at home we like the Hawks to get a measure of revenge here against Washington. The Hawks are 2-0 at home this year with a 18-point and 26-point win. Atlanta was 25-11 SU last year at home with the 8th best average margin of victory at +6.3PPG. Washington is 17-22 SU their last 39 on the road. Expect a big game out of Trae Young and cast at home. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets, 10:10 pm ET - Scoring in the NBA is down dramatically this season with games averaging just 217.2 total points per contest, down from 224 a year ago. The Unders have been cashing at a profitable 62% rate with games staying Under the totals by an average of -5.8PPG. The interesting part is that pace of play is up slightly at 100.5 possessions per game but offensive efficiency as a whole is down to 1.070-points per possession. Last season the NBA average for OEFF was 1.120PPP. A big reason why is the adjustment in the number of fouls being called (or not being called), particularly on jump shooters which has impacted the number of free throws teams are shooting this year. In any regard, this game features two teams that rank 18th or worse in pace of play, are 24th and 25th in offensive efficiency at 1.026PPP and rank 14th or better in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks have held 3 of four opponents to less than 100-points and are scoring just 102PPG themselves. The Nuggets have held two of four foes to under 100 and have scored less than 105 in 3 of four. With this number being set higher than the league average we like the value with UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The number set on this game is largely based on these two teams from a year ago but a lot has changed with both the Bulls and Knicks. New York brought in Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to pair with Randle. The Bulls went out and signed Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan giving them additional pieces to go with LaVine. The Knicks style of play is different this season too as they’ve attempted 46 3-pointers per game this season which is significantly higher than the 30 they averaged a year ago. The Knicks are also making their 3’s this season at 38% which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bulls are the #1 3-point shooting team in the league right now at 42.3%. Chicago has played in a couple low scoring games this year against the Pistons (who might be the worst team in the league) but will have to score here. Both clubs are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency with the Knicks averaging 119PPG and the Bulls checking in at 108PPG. Scoring is down early in the season but this number is set lower than our math model suggests. BET OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game in the East between two teams that could contend at seasons end. Brooklyn is clearly led by the two-headed monster of Harden and Durant but they miss Kyrie and his playmaking ability. The Heat added Kyle Lowry in the offseason to pair with Jimmy Butler and Adebayo to get over the hump. Miami has gotten great play from Tyler Herro off the bench who gives them a legitimate scorer with the second unit. The Nets are 2-2 SU on the season and were just a -5.5-point favorite at home over Washington, who isn’t at the same level of this Heat team. Miami could easily be 3-0 this season as their lone loss came in OT at the Pacers. The Heat blew out the Bucks earlier this season while the Nets lost in Milwaukee. Brooklyn isn’t anything special as a home favorite with a 19-17 ATS record since the start of last season. Miami was a top 10 defensive team a year ago while Brooklyn was a bottom 10 team. Give me the dog and points here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - We get two of the faster paced teams in the NBA tonight with the Bucks who ranked 3rd in possessions per game a year ago and the Pacers who were 5th. Both teams were also top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency with the Bucks checking in with the 5th best OEFF numbers last season, Indiana was 14th. The Bucks have Totaled 230 or more points in all three games this season. Indiana played in two higher scoring games to start the season but then had a horrible shooting night against the Heat last time out with just 193 total points. The Pacers shot just 39% against the Heat which is well below their season average from a year ago of 47.5% which was 11th best in the NBA. Last year in three meetings these two teams combined for 275, 253 and 240 points. Bet OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat, 8:10 pm ET - We like the value in the number here and an OVER wager on these two Eastern Conference rivals. The Heat knocked the Bucks out of the playoffs two years ago, then the Bucks returned the favor last year on their Championship run. During the regular season a year ago these two teams met 3 times and all three finished with 227 or more points. The Over/Unders set on those games were 226.5 or higher so you can see the value we have here. An average NBA game last season finished with roughly 223 total points and this number is barely higher than that with two upper echelon teams in the East. The Bucks had the 5th best EFG% in the league last season, Miami was 14th. The Bucks were 5th in offensive efficiency last year, Miami was 19th. Both were top ten in defensive efficiency, but the Bucks struggled to defend the 3-point line with the 24th worst field goal percentage defense at 37.7%. Miami shot 35.6% from beyond the arc but expect that number to increase this season with the addition of Kyle Lowry who is off a 39.6% season. 6th man Tyler Herro has looked outstanding in the preseason, after a subpar season last year, and scored at will in the exhibition. Duncan Robinson was 5th in 3-pointers made a season ago. The Bucks were 4th in fast break points scored last year along with 10th in points in the paint, meaning they get easy opportunities. Milwaukee looked great in the opener against the Nets and it’s clear they plan to get 3’s up this season as they attempted 45 against Brooklyn. This all shapes up to be an above average score with more than 223 Total points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 232.5 Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10pm ET - Both these teams return nearly everyone from last years roster which means their won’t be a “breaking in” period with new players. The Kings return the blazing fast PG Fox who averaged over 25PPG and 7 assists per game a season ago. Second year player Haliburton (13PPG) is going to be a solid player for years to come, Hield is a proven scorer (career 40% 3-point shooter) and then they round out the roster with veterans Barnes and Harkless along with others. The Kings top ten in pace of play last year and 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. Sacramento’s issues are on the defensive end of the court where they’ve been one of the worst in the league for several years. Last season the Kings were dead last in defensive efficiency ratings. Portland is eerily like the Kings when it comes to defense as they were 29th in DEFF allowing 1.160-PPP. Offensively they don’t play fast to score but are highly efficient, averaging 1.178-points per possession which ranked 2nd in the NBA. The Blazers “Big 3” of McCollum, Lillard and Nurkic can lead this team to the playoffs again in 2021 and we predict a fast start to the season. Last season in three head-to-head matchups these two scored 224, 258 and 242 total points. These two teams have combined for 234 or more points in 6 of their last eight meetings. The bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 5 results have pushed this Total to the highest it’s been in the entire series so we will bet the added value and Under. These two teams shot ridiculously well in Game 5 as both team hit over 55% of their field goal attempts. Those numbers are much higher than league average of 46.6% and are not sustainable, especially in this elimination game setting. The pace of play numbers have been consistent the last two games with 175 and 174 field goal attempts which is slightly lower than league average. These two combined for 98-points in the paint in Game 5 which is also well above the league standards so don’t expect that to happen again here. In this pressure packed game both teams are going to value every possession and our computers suggest a much slower pace in Game 6. The Under is now 6-3 the last nine meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee and that trend continues here. BET UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks, 9 PM ET Game 4 - We like UNDER again in Game 4 and expect a lower scoring game when these two teams take the floor Wednesday night. We’ve seen a steady decline the scoring in the three games thus far as they scored 223 and 226 total points in the first two games then 220 in Game 3. Most importantly we’ve seen a decline in field goal attempts and a slower pace. In Game 1 these two attempted 176 combined shots, in Game 2 it was 181 then in Game 3 it was the lowest number yet with 173 field goal attempts. As this series goes on we expect the pressure to grow and less shots to go in. Both teams shot 48% in Game 3 but that percentage isn’t sustainable given both teams defenses. Both teams have been outstanding defensively in the playoffs allowing just 1.090-points per possession (Suns) and 1.071PPP (Bucks). Those numbers are drastically better than the season PPP they allowed during the regular season. Suns are 4-1 Under their last five coming off a loss, while the Bucks are 7-3-1 Under their last eleven home games. With more money and tickets coming in on the Over the line has not fluctuated and even ticked down a little. That’s an indication to bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222 Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks, Game 3 Sunday - The first two games crept Over the number but we expect a lower scoring game here. In fact, we lost our play on the Under in Game 2 but we had a great opportunity to win as a few meaningless fouls late pushed it Over the number. Both teams have shot relatively well in both games and the Suns were ridiculously hot in Game 2 from beyond the arc making 20 3-pointers. We do expect the Bucks to shoot better at home but not well enough to push this game Over the number. Giannis shredded the Suns on the interior last game with 42-points but that number isn’t sustainable either. These two teams have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the Playoffs allowing just 1.073PPP (Bucks) and 1.081PPP (Suns). Those numbers are dramatically lower than the season averages both allowed during the regular season. Milwaukee is playing significantly slower in the post-season than they did in the regular season with 5-less possessions per game in the Playoffs. The Suns were the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season and are averaging that same pace in the Playoffs. Phoenix played a couple deliberate or slower paced games on the road against the Clippers which resulted with 164 and 198 total points. With both of the games thus far going Over the number it’s strange the oddsmakers didn’t set this number higher than this which means they want us to bet Over. We won’t bite and like UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Thursday 9 PM ET - We got a win with the Over in Game 1 of this series but now we feel these two teams stay Under with a much lower scoring game. These two combined for 223 Total points in Game 1 but it took 45% shooting by the Bucks and 16 of 36 3-point shooting or 44%. The Bucks 3-point shooting was well above their season average of 38.9%. Phoenix also had a hot shooting night by hitting 47% overall from the field and 32% from beyond the Arc. The Suns were also near perfect from the free throw line at 25 of 26. In Game 2 we expect a return to norm for both teams with each team's defenses stepping up. These two teams combined for just 176 field goal attempts in the opener which is around league average but again they had better than normal shooting nights. These two teams are ranked first and second in defensive efficiency in the Playoffs allowing less than 1.080-points per possesion. The betting indicators clearly support the Under here too as more money has flowed in on the Over, yet the line has dipped from 221.5 to 219.5 which tells us volumes. We expect a slightly slower pace, not as good of a shooting night and both defenses to improve from Game 1. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 1 Tuesday 9 PM ET - We are betting this unfamiliar territory for both teams is going to start fast and have some high energy throughout which is going to lead to a faster paced game and higher scoring output. Our computer simulator has played this matchup 10,000 times and the total projections it is producing is 222.3. These two teams were two of the highest points per possession offenses in the NBA ranking 5th and 6th in offensive efficiency. Playoff scoring is down for both teams but that is expected given the circumstances. The value in the number is obvious as these two teams played twice in the regular season and Vegas set Totals of 229 and 232. Thus far in the playoffs the Bucks and their opponents have had a Total of 219 or less just two times out of seventeen games. The Suns had a few low scoring games in their most recent series with the Clippers but even half of those games finished with more points than tonight’s Total and all of their games against Denver resulted in more than 218 total points. The Bucks screen-n-roll defense has been atrocious, and the Suns have been one of the best mid-range or pull-up shooting team in the playoffs. When these same two teams met in the regular season, they combined for 249 and 232 points (in regulation). Both have strong Over support in this scenario, and we see Game 1 ending with a higher total than projected.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks, Saturday 8:30 PM ET - We are betting the defenses for both teams rise to the occasion and expect both offenses to struggle here. The Bucks put together a masterful performance without Giannis in the last game and got huge offensive contributions from Brook Lopez (14 of 18 shooting) with 33-points and 22-points from Bobby Portis Jr. Based on year long statistics those numbers will be extremely hard to maintain as both players averaged under 13PPG on the season. In fact, both teams shot well in the last game at 46% for the Hawks and 51% for the Bucks. We are betting this game reverts back to the form we saw in the previous two games played in Atlanta which ended with 198 and 215 total points. Atlanta on 4-0 Under run at home, Bucks Under 9-2-1 their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record. Even if both teams get their Superstars back in the lineup tonight, neither will be close to 100%. This potential elimination game will be a tight defensive affair, bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +1 over LA Clippers Game 6 Wednesday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 5 but it came at a herculean price as starters logged exhausting minutes which makes them a “play against” here. Paul George put up a huge 41-point night, but the minutes are starting to add up. George has played more minutes than anyone in the post season and it’s not even close. Marcus Morris Sr. had a great game last time out but at times looked like he could barely job back defensively. The Clippers as a whole shot 55% which is well above their season average of 48.2%. As a team the Suns shot 45% in the last game after shooting just 39% and 36% in the previous two games. Phoenix opened this series with 55% and 50% games. Phoenix is 18-7 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 6.

ASA top play on 10* Under 219 Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, Game 4 Tuesday - Trae Young’s availability for tonight’s game is in question as he has a bone bruise on his ankle. We are basing this wager on him playing in this game but certainly not being 100%. Young is averaging 25PPG on the season and has 5 playoff games where he has scored 34+ points. Atlanta relies heavily on his scoring and if he’s not at full strength the Hawks will have a hard time putting up points here. The first game of this series ended with 229 total points, but it took 197 field goal attempts to get to that number. In Game 2 the number of field goal attempts dropped to 178 and 216 total points, then in Game 3 the teams combined for 172 FGA’s and just 215-points. Both teams have seen a decline in their overall shooting percentages in this series which ties into lower offensive efficiency ratings too. The Bucks and Hawks are both averaging less points per possession in the playoffs than they did in the regular season and Milwaukee’s defense has played at a high level. The Bucks are allowing just 1.044-points per possession in the playoffs which is significantly lower than their season PPP allowed of 1.107. These two teams have stayed Under in four straight meetings in Atlanta and 4 of the last five overall. The oddsmakers have adjusted this number down but they haven’t moved it enough. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5 over LA Clippers, Game 5 Monday - We are betting this series ends tonight and the Suns advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers don’t have enough weapons without Leonard and its obvious to see they are wearing down. Neither team shot well in the last game but the Suns have more options than the Clippers do and we expect them to bounce back at home with a much better shooting night. L.A. has some solid numbers when playing off a loss this season but that was with Kawhi in the lineup. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS when coming off a win and have won 10 of their last eleven games overall. 5 of the Suns six home wins in the playoffs have all come by more than today’s spread and our models predict a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Sunday 8:35 PM ET - We are not going to overreact to the Bucks blowout win in Game 2 and get suckered into betting a bad number in Game 3. The Bucks were just favored by 8-points at home in a must win situation and are now laying 4.5-points on the road? The natural swing here should have this game as a pick’em. Not only that, but the line on this game also opened with Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite and a large volume of tickets have come in on the Bucks yet the line dropped. The Bucks have lost three road playoff games this postseason and the Hawks have won 14 of their last sixteen at home, which included a win over this Bucks team in the regular season. Atlanta doesn’t have great year long statistics as they suffered from a slow start, yet they still have the 8th best home court point differential at +6.3PPG. In the end this comes down to grabbing the extra value with Atlanta at home.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -110 over LA Clippers Game 4 Saturday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 3 yet the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this line and made them favorites at home. That tells us something and we’ll put our money on the side Vegas doesn’t want us to be on. Phoenix had a horrible shooting night in Game 3 with Chris Paul and Devin Booker combining to go 10 of 40 so expect both to return to more normal averages here. As a team the Suns shot just 39% in the last game after shooting 55% and 50% in the first two games of the series. Phoenix was 18-6 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 4.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 2 8:35 PM ET Friday - This is basically the elimination game of this series as the Bucks can’t afford to go down 0-2 to start the Eastern Conference finals. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Coach Budenholzer for Milwaukee needs to be fired ASAP as his team continually underperforms despite the talent advantage. Even with Bud we like the Bucks to get this home win by a substantial margin. After watching film, the Bucks will make adjustments and switch screens involving Trae Young and not allow him to get free for easy floaters in the lane (48-points on 17 of 34 shooting in Game 1). Young was a big reason why the Hawks shot 49% for the game which will be tough to duplicate against the Bucks 5th best field goal percentage defense. Milwaukee had an off-shooting night by hitting just 8 of 36 three-pointers which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 38.9% (5th best in NBA). We are betting Khris Middleton will have a much better shooting night than his 0-9 performance in the opener. Milwaukee is 31-11 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.1PPG. The bet is the Bucks to bounce back here with a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221 Phoenix Suns @ L.A. Clippers, Game 3 Thursday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which forced the oddsmakers to adjust the Total up from 220 in the opener to 224 in Game 2. Now in Game 3 we are back in the 220 range. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. In Game two we had a much slower tempo than Game 1 as these two teams attempted just 160 total field goal attempts. The Suns shot well again at 50% overall while the Clippers hit 45%. In Game 2 these two clubs combined for less than 51-points in three of the four quarters. As we mentioned in our previous analysis. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and Game 2 finished with 207. We see another defensive struggle with a low scoring affair.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 1 Wednesday 8:35 PM ET - We will start by saying this, the Hawks are playing outstanding right now and head coach Nate McMillan has guided this team to a level of play many didn’t think possible. But the situation warrants a bet on the Bucks who are more rested, been here before and have the two best players on the floor in Giannis and Middleton. Trae Young has been great but he’s not on that level yet and also is a little banged up with a bad shoulder. The Hawks are also concerned with Bogdanovic who played just 21 minutes and scored 4-points in their Game 7 win over Philly. Atlanta is coming off two very physically demanding series against the Knicks and 76ers and will suffer a letdown here. Milwaukee just beat the best team in the East in Brooklyn and have a roster than can win it all this season. The Bucks have the best offense in the NBA and currently the #1 ranked defensive efficiency number in the playoffs allowing just 1.032-points per possession. We know the Bucks Achilles-heel is their 3-point defense which ranks near the bottom of the NBA, but the Hawks shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc which ranks them 12th. Milwaukee was 26-10 SU at home this season with the 5th best average point differential of +7.7PPG and they’ve gone 5-0 at home in the playoffs at +13PPG. The future games of this series may be much closer but we expect a blowout in Game 1 by the Bucks

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this number up from the 220 it was in the opener. That added value has us on the Under here. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The hype of this game will wear off and expect the young Suns to return to normal here. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and this game is going to stay right around that average or 215 total points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216 Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET Sunday - The numbers suggest this is going to be a tightly contested game between two young teams that are new to this type of a high-pressure situation. The added weight of a Game 7 will lead to a lower scoring game and defensive grinder. The last three games in this series have resulted Unders and 203, 215 and 103 total points being scored. Shooting percentages for both teams have trended down as the series has gone on with the most recent game ending with both teams shooting just 41% from the field. The Hawks have stayed Under in 5 of their last six road games against quality teams such as Philly while Philly on 4-1 Under streak when favored. The Sixers have the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs as they allow just 1.088-points per possession. Atlanta is 5th in DEFF, giving up just 1.096PPP. The 76ers are averaging 1.137PPP in this series, which is right around their season average, but the Hawks are well below their season average at 1.087PPP. Both teams have played well below their season averages in pace of play in this series and if that continues today, we cash an easy Under.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -120 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Historically, home teams in Game 7’s dominate to the tune of 80% win rates and there is no reason to doubt that logic here. Brooklyn enjoyed one of the best home courts in the NBA this season with a 34-8 SU record despite not having parts of the “Big 3” available most nights. The Nets will be without Kyrie here, but it doesn’t seem to matter as KD is the most dominant player in the league and is nearly unstoppable offensively. The Nets are on a fantastic 15-2 SU run at home and have covered 13 of those games. The Bucks Achilles heel defensively is their 3-point defense which ranks as one of the worst in the league. The Nets have taken advantage at home of where they shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc which is one of the better numbers in the NBA. The Bucks got a HUGE offensive performance from Middleton (38-pts) in their Game 6 win but the rest of the Bucks were a dismal 2 for 25 from beyond the 3-point line. We are betting the Bucks implode late in this game and will revert back to iso-ball which doesn’t work for them. Not too mention poor free throw shooting in a close game. The bet here is on the best player in the NBA and the Nets.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz money line -125 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET – Game 6 Friday - There is a reason the Jazz are favored on the road in this possible elimination game. We won’t be deterred by our last game loss with the Jazz and will come right back with a bet on them here. Leonard is out again here so the Clippers will have to find a way to win again without their Superstar. In this series, the two wins by the Clippers at home were anchored by incredible games by Kawhi. Leonard scored 31 & 34 points in both wins and grabbed 19 total rebounds. In the losses he scored just 21 and 23-points. In Game 5 the Clippers got a HUGE game from Paul George who scored 37, grabbed 16 rebounds and handed out 5 assists. When Superstars are out of games the reserves typically step up in the next contest but then regress to the norm after that. Tonight, the Clippers will sorely miss Leonard’s 50% shooting in this series not to mention his defensive presence. Donovan Mitchell had scored 30 or more points in the first four games of this series and 37+ in three of the four before a dude in Game 5 of 21-points. Utah was one of the best team in the NBA all season long on the road with a 21-15 SU record at home in the regular season with a +5.3PPG differential (#1 in NBA). The Jazz are 16-7 SU off a loss this season and they will find a way to win this road game and force a Game 7.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET – Game 5 Wednesday - The 76ers find themselves in a battle for the East from an unexpected round two opponent in the Hawks but tonight they flex their muscle in a convincing home win. In Game 4 the 76ers lost by just 3-points despite Joel Embiid going 4 for 20 from the field and 0-12 in the second half. So despite a horrible showing by Embiid the Sixers still had a chance to steal a road win in Atlanta. Philly is 16-9 SU off a loss this season and 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. Philadelphia has a +8.9 average point differential at home this season which is the second-best number in the NBA. When playing at home and coming off a loss the 76ers had an average winning margin of +14PPG in their last nine games in that situation during the regular season. The bet here is Philly in a double-digit home win.