ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - This number hasn’t been set high enough and the bet to make is on the Over the Total. Indiana just faced a Nuggets team that plays much slower than the 76ers and that O/U number was essentially the same at 237. Philadelphia is 5th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.207-points per possession and rank 15th in pace of play. The Indiana Pacers are 2nd in pace of play at 102.6 possession per game and rank 1st in OEFF while scoring on average 124.6PPG. Indiana also allows the 2nd most points per game at 122.9PPG and rank 26th in DEFF. Philadelphia is coming off a 133-123 win over the Spurs who play at the same frenetic pace as the Pacers and are equally as bad defensively. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 263 and 258 total points. Even without Haliburton for the Pacers we like a higher scoring game here. Bet Over!

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks have moved on from first year head coach Adrian Griffin after starting the season 30-13. The main reason for the firing was the Bucks lack of defense as they dropped from 4th in defensive efficiency from a year ago to 22nd this season. Interim coach Joe Prunty will take over in the short term as it looks like the Bucks will bring in vet Doc Rivers. Coaching won’t have a lot to do with tonight’s game, the players will. Milwaukee was just embarrassed on Jan 17th in Cleveland by 40-points, a 95-135 loss that is still fresh in their minds. Going back to December 29th, the Bucks beat the Cavs on their home court 119-111. In the most recent Cleveland win, the Cavs got a ‘unicorn’ night from George Niang who shot 13 of 14 from the floor in scoring 33-points. We are betting the short-handed Cavs don’t get another performance like that from Niang tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 19-4 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of +7PPG. They have won 3 straight at home against quality competition in the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Cleveland is playing very well right now with 8 straight wins, but other than the win against the Bucks, they haven’t beaten a team in that stretch of games with a winning percentage better than .524. Three of the Cavs last eight wins have come against the Wizard and Spurs who combined have 15 wins between them on the year. This one will get ugly early!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 240.5 Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - The Pacers are returning home after a long 6 game West Coast road trip and one of those games was a date in Denver. The Books posted an Over-Under on that game of 239.5 and the game finished with 226 total points. Granted, Tyrese Haliburton did not play in that game and is expected to be in the lineup tonight but we still like the value with the Under. In that most recent game, the Pacers shot 47% in making 43 of 92 field goal attempts. Denver shot extremely well at 65%, making 46 of 71 from the field. The main statistic here is the number of field goal attempts which was well below league average. Indiana relies heavily on their transition offense or fast break points as they average the 4th most in the league at 17 per game. Denver allows the 9th fewest transition points per game at 13.5ppg. Indiana is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 102.9 possessions per game but in their last five games that average dips to 100.2. The Nuggets prefer a much slower tempo, ranking 29th in the league with an average of 97.5 possessions per game. In each teams last five games they have been above average in terms of defensive efficiency. We don’t see the Pacers having much energy in their first game home after the extended travel and the Nuggets prefer a much slower pace to begin with. We will be this on Under the number.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 229 Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The Suns are coming off a high tempo game last night against the Pacers with the starters seeing extended court time. They will gladly play at a much slower pace tonight against the Bulls. Over their last five games the Bulls are 25th in pace of play at 96.1 possessions per game. On the season the Bulls are THE slowest team in the league at 96 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Suns actually play slower, also ranking 28th in pace on the season and 17th in the last five games. Both teams rate right around the league average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.154-points per possession. On the season the Suns rate above average in offensive efficiency, Chicago is well below. In recent action the Bulls are 16th in OEFF, the Suns are 17th. Chicago is missing one of their scorers as Zach LaVine is out tonight with an ankle injury. LaVine is averaging 19.5PPG on the season and shooting over 45%. The Suns have played Under the total in 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. After a stretch of 4 straight Overs the Bulls have now stayed below their posted Total in 2 of their last three. In the other meeting this season these two teams combined for 231 in overtime but had just 219 in regulation. The O/U on that game was 218 so you can see for yourself the added value here. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play 10* on #572 Phoenix Suns -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - Phoenix is starting to jell now that they have a relatively healthy roster and look like the team many expected them to be this season. The Suns have won 4 straight games with an 18-point win at the Lakers, an 11-point win at Portland, a solid home win over the Kings and then a W at New Orleans. Indiana is playing their 6th straight road game and coming off a poor showing in Portland. The Pacers also lost by 8-points in Denver and by 27 in Utah on this road trip. Granted they did not have Haliburton for most of this trip, but he did play in their most recent game in Portland. Indiana has one of the worst road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA as they allow 1.224-points per possession (27th). The Suns season statistics aren’t an accurate indicator for this team as the Big 3 of Beal, Durant and Booker have barely played together. Now that all 3 are on the floor we expect their numbers to improve dramatically including their 3-point percentage which is 37.6% and 9th best in the league. The Pacers are 23rd in the league in defending the 3PT line allowing 37.8%. The Suns were recently a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings, the same line we have here. That same Kings team just hosted the Pacers and were 8-point favorites. That tells us the value is on the Suns in this home game at a bargain price.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 8:10 PM ET - This is certainly a tough scheduling spot for the Hawks who are coming off a game last night versus the Magic while Miami is rested. It took a buzzer beating shot by Dejonte Murray to steal that victory last night and we’re betting they have a tough time getting back up for this game tonight. When Miami last played they were blown out in Toronto 121-97. The Heat rank 11th in defensive efficiency rating but they struggled to get stops against the Raptors and allowed 20 made 3-pointers. Prior to that loss the Heat had won 3 straight games and are finally getting healthy Butler, Adebayo and Herro all in the lineup. These teams met in December with the Heat winning 122-113 at home as a 1-point chalk. Miami played without Butler in that game and still won by 9-points. The Hawks haven’t been a great road team this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG and a 9-12 SU record. Miami has had a ton of missed games by starters this season yet still have a home record of 12-7 SU and an average +/- of plus 1.2PPG. Miami has been very good when coming off a loss with a 61% win rate dating back to the start of last season. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA when playing without rest with a 5-15 SU record in their last 20. Miami has won outright 7 of the last ten meetings and will get a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on #503 Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 or -4 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs have won 5 straight games, but they’ve come against 19-23 Bulls, 16-23 Nets, 7-32 Spurs and two wins against the 7-32 Wizards. So, let’s not be fooled by this current Cavaliers stretch of wins. The Bucks on the other hand have won 3 straight against the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Milwaukee is the superior team here offensively ranking 3rd compared to the Cavs ranking 20th. Cleveland does hold the advantage defensively with the 5th best overall rating compared to the Bucks at 15th. Milwaukee has the 3rd best 3-point percentage in the league while the Cavs rank 10th in 3PT% defense. The Cavs are 26th in the NBA in 3PT% shooting and won’t make many against the Bucks defense that is 2nd in the league in defending the 3-point line. In fact, in the most recent meeting between these two teams the Bucks held the Cavs to 6 of 43 on 3-point field goals. The Cavaliers are still without dynamic PG Garland and starting Center Mobley and simply don’t have the depth to hang with Milwaukee at near full strength. Lay the points on the road.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - The Suns grade out below the Kings in most season long statistical categories, but they’ve played most of the season without their ‘big 3’ of Booker, Durant and Beal on the floor together. They are finally healthy so we are starting to see what this roster can potentially do. They are coming off 2 straight road wins over the Lakers and Blazers and now catch a Kings team playing their 5th straight road game. Sacramento is off a demoralizing last second loss to the Bucks when Dame Lillard hit a deep 3-pointer with no time on the clock. The big edge we like for the Suns in this game will be 3-point shooting. The Suns are 11th in the league in 3-point percentage (even with the injuries) at 37.4%. The Kings are second to last in the NBA in opponents 3PT% allowed. The Suns are also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, so the Kings won’t get many second chance opportunities here. You can expect the Suns to steadily trend up as they become accustomed to playing with each other so tonight is a ‘buy low’ opportunity with Phoenix.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - This line is grossly inflated with the Jazz current success and the fact that the Pacers are coming off a game in Denver last night. The Pacers gave extended minutes to their bench players yesterday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor here. Utah has ripped off 5-straight wins, but they are coming off a big win over the Lakers and have two huge games on deck against the Warriors and Thunder. Looking at recent home games for the Jazz they were favored by -8.5-points against the 3-36 Pistons. Now they are laying nearly that same number against the 23-16 Pacers. Utah has been a solid home favorite this season with a 5-1 ATS record, but the Pacers are a profitable 13-9 ATS as an underdog this season. These two teams have similar strength of schedules yet the Pacers rank 2nd in offensive efficiency and 26th in DEFF compared to the Jazz who are 23rd in OEFF and 23 in defensive efficiency. Clearly the Bookmakers have over-adjusted this number so let's grab the value with Indiana over Utah.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +5.5 or +5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We like the scheduling advantage for the Kings as they catch the Bucks off a big game last night against the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee is also off a huge home win over the Celtics on Thursday night making this their 3rd game in four nights and the 2nd of of a back to back. The Bucks clearly are not unbeatable at home this season as they’ve lost recent home games to the Jazz and Pacers. Since the start of last season the Bucks are 50-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.3PPG. The Kings are rested and come into this game off a recent loss in Philadelphia. Prior to that loss the Kings had won 4 straight road games. Going back to the start of the 2022-23 season the Kings have the 4th best road record in the NBA and average +/- on the road of +1.7PPG. Milwaukee’s defense has been their Achilles heel this season as they give up 119.4PPG which is 24th most in the league. Sacramento is the 9th highest scoring team in the league and should put up plenty of points here to cover this short number.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231 New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Pelicans are in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 2nd of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not to mention, last night’s game was in altitude in Denver. Dallas has been at home and is coming off a 128-124 win over the Knicks. They played without Luka Doncic in that game but it clearly didn’t hurt them offensively as they put up 128 points against the 10th adjusted ranked efficiency defense. Dating back to the start of last season the Pelicans have gone Over the total in 70.6% of their games when playing without rest. In those 17 games the Over has cashed by an average of +7.8PPG. The Pels have the 12th most efficient offense in the NBA and play at a league average pace. The Mavericks own the 8th most efficient offense in the NBA, rank 24th in DEFF (meaning they will give up points here) and also play at the 8th fastest pace in the league. In the two head-to-head meetings this season they have produced 241 and 260 total points. The bet here is OVER again.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -14 over the Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of laying double digits in the NBA but tonight we will make an exception. The Blazers are bad…really bad! In their last two games they’ve lost to the Knicks 84-112 and to OKC last night 77-139. This team is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games and score just .980 points per possession in that span of games. Defensively they are better, but not by much as they allow 1.189PPP which ranks 20th in their last 5. They have the worst average point differential in the league at minus -21.4PPG in that same stretch of games. Portland is playing their 7th straight road game, 2nd of back-to-back nights, 3rd in four nights and 7th game in 12 days. The Blazers average +/- on the road this season is a negative -9.8PPG. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a tough loss to the Celtics and also lost their most recent home game to the Pelicans. The Wolves have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG and rely on a defense that is best in the NBA in terms of efficiency ratings. Given the circumstances we expect the T’Wolves to get a dominating home win here.

ASA play on Boston Celtics +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Something is clearly going on within the Bucks organization/locker room that we can’t figure out. Even though this team is 25-12 SU, this loaded roster should be better than it is. The Bucks are currently 21st in defensive efficiency after ranking 4th a season ago. The Celtics were 3rd in DEFF a year ago and rank 2nd this season allowing just 1.113PPP. That’s what separates these two teams as the C’s play defense and the Bucks don’t. Both teams average over 1.210 points per possession and rank 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a game last night but that hasn’t mattered as they are 9-4 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing without rest. They have a very deep roster and have beaten the Bucks 5 of the last six times they’ve played. Milwaukee was 24-18-2 ATS at home a year ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. The Celtics owned the best road point differential in the league last season at +2.9PPG. Boston has an average margin of victory on the road this season of +6.4PPG. Milwaukee at home is winning by an average +5.8PPG at home with a 7-11-1 ATS record on their home court. Grab the points with the Celtics unless they decide to sit starters.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 at Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - Utah is coming off a tough East coast road trip and two huge upset wins of the 76ers and Bucks. The Jazz benefited from facing a 76ers team without Joel Embiid and a Bucks team without Lillard. Those two victories will have the Nuggets on high alert and focused for this road date in Utah. Denver continues to play outstanding with an 8-2 SU record their last 10 games with 6 of those W’s coming by 6+ points. The Nuggets have been favored by -7.5 or more points in four straight meetings with the Jazz and have covered 3 of 4. A key advantage in this game for Denver will be in the turnover department. Denver turns the ball over the 2nd fewest times per game at 12.2 on the season while the Jazz turn it over more than any team in the league at 16.4 per game. The Nuggets are also one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 49.5% and the Jazz are 19th in opponents FG% against allowing 47.8%. Utah will have a tough time scoring here with the 25th worst shooting statistics in the league (46.2%) going up against a Denver D that holds opponents to 46.3% (10th). The Nuggets have won 6 straight road games, and we like them to get a win by a double-digit margin here.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -11 or 11.5 at Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - Rarely will you find us on a double-digit road favorite but there are times you have to make exceptions to the rules which is the case tonight. Oklahoma City Thunder is an elite team in the NBA at 23-11 SU and a serious contender in the Western Conference. Washington is a dumpster fire at 6-29 SU and expect a roster shakeup before the trade deadline. OKC has lost two straight on the road and will bounce back here after a couple days of rest. The Thunder have the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on the road this season at +7.2PPG. The have the #1 defensive efficiency rating on the road allowing 1.095 points per possession and rank 9th in OEFF. Washington has the WORST average road differential in the NBA at minus -12PPG. They rate 24th in offensive efficiency and 30th or last in DEFF. The Thunder are the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA and the Wiz are 29th in overall FG% defense. OKC is 1st in 3PT% offense and the Wizards are 23rd in defending the 3-point line. With Oklahoma City off a pair of losses we expect them to be focused here with a big road effort.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +9.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets and back the Magic. Denver is off a huge last second win last night in Golden State and will have a tough time getting back up for the Magic tonight. The Nuggets came back from 18-points down in the final 7-minutes to win and expended a ton of energy in that comeback win. Orlando is rested and coming off a most recent loss in Sacramento by 3-points in OT. The Magic have lost 3 straight road games at the Kings, Warriors and Suns. They were plus +6-points against the Kings and Suns and catch an inflated number here. Not only are the Nuggets playing the second night of a back to back but they are also playing their 5th game in nine days. Denver has a winning record of 11-9 ATS when playing without rest but their average margin of victory is only +1.2PPG. In their last 8 road games the Magic have just 2 losses by more than 9-points. Easy call here with the Underdog.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 vs Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - This is a quick rematch between these two teams as they recently met in Denver on Christmas Day. There was some controversy after the game as Warriors coach Steve Kerr had issues with Nuggets Center Jokic attempting 18 free throws by himself. That game went down to the wire with the Nuggets holding on for a home win by 6-points as a -7.5-point favorite. With that said this line should be a pick’em based off the number of the previous meeting. This has been a tightly contested series with 7 of the last eight meetings all decided by 6-points or less. The Warriors are coming off a win at home over the Magic and the encouraging news for the Warriors is that Klay Thompson is starting to find his stroke again. Thompson was 6 of 11 against the Magic and is a huge factor in the Warriors offense. In the game against the Nuggets he was 3 of 12 from the field. The Warriors are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA and the Nuggets allow the 17th most. Golden State has a positive home point differential and is 9-6 SU on their home court with an impressive win over the Celtics recently. Denver has won 5 straight on the road but those W’s didn’t come against great competition (Hornets, Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks). Grab the points with GST.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Thunder are in a tough scheduling situation here after coming off a huge game against the Boston Celtics last night. Not only that, but they are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days. Fatigue is certainly going to be a factor in Atlanta where the Hawks are home and rested. Atlanta is 1-4 SU their last five games but did win their most recent game in Washington. The Hawks have Jalen Johnson back in the starting lineup and now become a deeper team. We are expecting the Hawks to get plenty of extra field goal attempts with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team going up against an OKC team that 29th in defensive rebounding. The Thunder are 28th in rebounding overall while the Hawks are 19th. The Thunder put everything into their game last night against the league leading Celtics and will have little left in the tank to face the rested Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams come into this game red hot with the Celtics on an 11-1 SU run their last twelve games while OKC is 7-1 SU their last eight games. Boston has the 2nd best average margin of victory at +10.2PPG but the Thunder are 3rd at +7.7PPG and OKC has faced a slightly tougher schedule. On a neutral court we would have Boston favored by -3.1 points, so the value is clearly on the Thunder at home where they are 13-5 SU this season +8.4PPG. Looking at recent Thunder games and we see they were recently favored by 2-points at home over Minnesota and minus -6.5-points home vs. the Clippers. The Celtics were recently favored by 4 and 5-points at the Lakers and Clippers and should not be laying points here. Boston lives and dies with the 3-ball as they rank 1st in the NBA in attempts and makes but rank 11th in 3PT%. OKC defends the 3-point line well, ranking 10th in 3PT% defense. The Thunder are the leagues best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and the Celtics are 14th in defending the Arc. That 3-point advantage will be key tonight in what shapes up to be a 1-possession game either way. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* #572 Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs NY Knicks, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers here as the Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation with this being the second night of a back-to-back. Not only are they playing without rest, but this will also be their 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days. Now they must face the second fastest paced team in the NBA who is rested and at home. Indiana played extremely well going into the in-season tournament but came back to Earth immediately afterwards. They have seemed to have found their groove again with a pair of wins on the road at Houston and Chicago. New York is 9-9 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential. Indiana is 8-7 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 6.7PPG. The key advantage the Pacers have is their transition offense which averages the most fastbreak points in the league compared to a Knicks team that allows the 20th most. Lay it with Indiana.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - Charlotte is coming off a game last night and gave up 133 to the Lakers. They have given up some big numbers recently against the Lakers, Pacers and 76ers but we don’t expect that tonight in Phoenix. The three teams previously mentioned are faster paced teams ranking 13th or better but the Suns are the 5th slowest team in the NBA. Phoenix is also an average team in terms of offensive efficiency at 1.166-points per possession. Charlotte doesn’t play fast either (without Ball in the lineup) ranking 17th in pace this season overall and they’ve been slower yet in their last five games at 97.7 possessions per game. The Hornets are struggling offensively having scored 114 or less points in 9 straight games and 104 or less in 5 of nine. The Suns had an outlier offensive game last time out when they put up 129 against the Rockets. Prior to that they had scored 114 or less in 7 of their last nine games. We aren’t expecting many points in this game and will BET UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors are playing better of late with wins in 5 of their last six games. The lone loss in that stretch was their most recent game on Christmas Day in Denver. Golden State has won 8 straight at home including an impressive win over the Boston Celtics. The Warriors last five games numbers are significantly better than their overall numbers on the season. In their last five games they have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.237-points per possession and a DEFF of 1.167PPP. Miami has some solid road numbers including a 9-6 SU record and a +2.8PPG differential. The Heat though have played the 27th easiest schedule to date compared to the Warriors who have faced the 3rd toughest. Going back to the start of last season, the Warriors are 36-25 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. Miami is off a big upset win in Philly on Christmas Day and now travels across the country to face a motivated Warriors team as Miami won the most recent meeting last season so this is a revenge spot for the Warriors. Lay the short number.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs NY Knicks, 8 PM ET - We are not concerned about the Thunder playing last night as they were able to give extended minutes to several bench players. OKC had a remarkable shooting night at 60% against the best defensive team in the NBA and now face a Knicks team that is average in that regard. New York allows opponents to make 47.5% of their FG attempts which ranks 18th in the league. One key advantage the Thunder have here is their 3-point shooting as they have the 2nd best 3PT percentage in the NBA at 38.6%. The Knicks allow foes to hit 37.3% which is 19th worst in the league. The Knicks are average in most key offensive categories and the Thunder hold the 2nd best FG% defense and are 12th in defending the 3-point line. This line is a bargain considering the Thunder were just favored by 2-points against the T-Wolves, -3.5 vs. the Lakers and -6.5 vs. the Clippers who all grade out higher than the Knicks. OKC has a positive differential of +7PPG at home this season and should get a win by that margin here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - We really liked this game when it opened at -3.5 but there is still value at the current number with New Orleans. These same two teams just met on this court last week with Memphis winning by 2-points on a Ja Morant game winner. The Pelicans were favored by -8.5-points in that game, hence the value here. It’s a great situation to back New Orleans as they are off a home loss to the Rockets while Memphis has won 3 straight since the return of Morant. The Grizzlies upset this Pelicans team, then won at home against a Pacers team that is trending down, then beat a Hawks team that is 3-8 their last eleven. New Orleans is a solid home team with a 33-23 ATS record and a plus/minus of +4.6PPG dating back to the start of last season. Memphis is 22-36 ATS on the road since the start of last year with a +/- of -3.8PPG. With the quick turnaround between these two teams we like the situation and scheduling to back the Pelicans at home.

ASA Top Play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 or Pick -120 at Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The 76ers have been a money-making machine this season with a 20-8 ATS record, and we’ll back them on the road in Miami. The Heat are getting healthy, but we’re still not sold on this roster. Miami has won 5 of their last seven games but the wins have come against Charlotte (2x), Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta which is hardly impressive. Philly is on an 8-1 SU run and owns the best average point differential in the NBA at +11.3PPG. The Sixers are the best offensive efficiency team in the league and rank 5th defensively. Miami is 14th in DEFF and 15th in OEFF and have a negative point differential at home of -0.8PPG. The visitor has covered 4 straight in this rivalry and we expect that trend to continue here.

ASA Top Play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors – 2:30 PM ET - This Warriors team is not your Warriors team from the past. The aging roster is catching up to them and we don’t see them as a relevant contender this season in the West. Denver on the other hand has the best starting five in the NBA and clearly are one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver doesn’t lose very often at home with a 71.1% winning percentage at home since the start of the 2020 season. Since the start of last season the Nuggets are 55-10 SU with an average +/- of +10PPG. Golden State has really struggled on the road the past two season with a 18-43 SU record and a loss margin of minus -3.6PPG. Denver has won 4 straight in the series, including a 3-point win earlier this season at home. Denver owns the 8th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA and can limit Curry and Crew from Deep. Lay the points.

ASA top play on Memphis Grizzlies Pick'em -115 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - The Grizzlies are significantly better with Ja Morant on the floor as evidenced by their two wins with him back in the lineup. Today they face a Hawks team off a game last night in Miami. Atlanta is 5-13 SU their last 18 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -2.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Grizzlies have an average point differential of +5.1PPG when holding a rest advantage over their opponents and a 16-12 record. Atlanta took a hit when they lost up-and-coming Jalen Johnson and have just 3 wins in their last ten games. This is the Hawks 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days so fatigue will be a factor. Memphis has two quality wins over the Pelicans and Pacers in their last two games and there is a reason they are favored in this game.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 7:40 PM ET - We are grabbing the value with the Nets here at home plus the points. These two teams recently met in Denver where the Nuggets were favored by -9-points. That means this line should be Denver minus 1 or 2 points. The Nets were in the middle of a tough road stretch and were playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude. They shot horribly at 41% overall and made just 8 of 30 3-point attempts. The Nuggets were just favored by this same spread in Toronto who we grade slightly worse than Brooklyn. The Nuggets road numbers aren’t great at 7-8 SU with an average point differential of minus -0.4PPG. Brooklyn is 8-5 SU at home with the 12th best average margin of victory at +6.8PPG. We like the Nets to get a bit of revenge here from that recent loss in Denver. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - The Clippers trade for Harden seems to be working out as they’ve won 9 games in a row, including a road win last night in Dallas. L.A. is now playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back in OKC. The Thunder have been off since the 18th and they’ve won 6 of their last eight games. The Thunder are coming off two straight impressive wins in Denver and at home against Memphis by 19-points. Oklahoma City is winning at home by an average of +7.3PPG which is the 10th best number in the NBA. When playing without rest the Clippers are 7-12 SU since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Clippers typically beat teams by shooting a high percentage but that will be tough to do tonight against an OKC team that is 2nd in opponents FG% overall and 9th in defending the 3-point line. The Thunder also shoot it just as well as the Clippers from beyond the arc (4th) and overall (4th). The scheduling clearly favors the Thunder at home.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - We have admittedly been slow to get on the Rockets bandwagon but will side with them tonight at home against the Hawks. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home and the only loss came back in the first week of the season to Golden State. They have beaten some of the best teams in the league at home including: the Kings (twice) Lakers, Pelicans, Nuggets (twice) and Thunder. Houston’s average Margin of Victory at home is 4th best in the NBA at +12.8PPG. The Hawks have OK road numbers with an average MOV of +0.5PPG and a 6-6 SU record but most recently they’ve struggled with a 2-6 SU record in their last eight road contests. Their last four road wins have come against teams with losing records with 2 of those coming at the Spurs and at Washington, two of the worst teams in the league. Houston is coming off a 3-game road stint with a win in Memphis and two tightly contested losses in Milwaukee and Cleveland. Atlanta has been a fade team all season long with a 6-20 ATS record while the Rockets are 16-7-1 ATS. We expect that trend to continue tonight and will back Houston.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - Toronto used to have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Raptors are 8-7 SU with an average point differential of +1.4PPG. In their last five games at home, they have a pair of unimpressive wins against poor teams such as Charlotte and Atlanta and losses to good teams Miami and New York. Toronto is just 3-4 SU at home against teams with a current winning record. Denver is not a deep team but their starting five is as good as anyone in the NBA. They recently went through a stretch of games without PG Murray but he’s back now and the Nuggets have won 4 of their last five games. Denver has played the 8th toughest schedule yet still has an average point differential of +4.8PPG which is 7th highest in the league. Toronto has faced a much weaker schedule, and their net point differential is -1.7PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency, but the Nuggets hold a big advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency, averaging 1.185PPP compared to the Raptors 1.133PPP. At this price we will back the World Champs minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235 Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The O/U number on this game has ticked up slightly from the opener and we like the added value with an Under wager on this marquee NBA game tonight. Scoring is up as a whole in the NBA with games averaging roughly 230 total points per contest. To get to that lofty total you need several factors including pace of play, a poor defense or great offense. In this match up we have the Warriors who rank 13th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game, Boston ranks 23rd. The Celtics are 7th in offensive efficiency but the Warriors rank 15th in OEFF. Defensively the Celtics are 4th in defensive efficiency and allow 109PPG. Golden State is 17th in DEFF and give up 115PPG. When playing away from home the Celtics tend to play slower and score less at 111.2PPG which is significantly lower than the 123.6PPG they score at home. Golden State also plays at a slower tempo at home compared to when they play on the road and also score and allow less at home. In the two meetings last season these teams combined for 230 and 222 (in regulation) when they faced each other, and they have stayed Under the total in 7 of the last ten meetings overall. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 247 Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, 8:15 PM ET - The Wizards are in a tough spot here having played last night in Phoenix. Tonight’s game will also be their 3rd game in four days. Washington is a team that really struggles on the defensive end of the court and we know that ‘s where most of your energy should be spent. The Wiz are last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and 126.3PPG. They have allowed 130+ in 6 of their last ten games, 140 or more twice. Washington wants to play fast with the 2nd highest possession rate in the NBA. The Kings are going to score in this game and could easily get to that 130 number. Sacramento is 11th in pace and 14th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are averaging the 9th most points per game at 116.3PPG and are coming off a pair of games scoring 128 and 125. It’s a big number, but we like this game to reach 250+ total points.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +7 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Milwaukee and back a red hot Rockets team. Houston has won 5 straight games and that includes a pair of wins over OKC and Denver. This Rockets team is tenacious defensively ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.082 points per possession. In comparison the Bucks rank 23rd. The Bucks have won three straight and 8 of their last ten but take a look at who they’ve played. Milwaukee has not faced a defense of this caliber since November 22nd at Boston and they lost by 3-points. In their last ten games the Bucks have faced 8 teams that rank in the bottom third of the NBA in total defense. Milwaukee has played THE easiest schedule in the NBA, the Rockets have faced the 12th toughest. Grab the points with Houston.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 or -2.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Hawks are in a tough scheduling situation here having played and won in Toronto on Friday night. This will be the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. Cleveland has lost 4 straight games, but they’ve come against Miami, Orlando and Boston twice. The Cavs suffered a blow in their last game, losing PG Garland for the foreseeable future with a jaw injury. But LeVert is more than capable of filling in for Garland and also expect Donovan Mitchell to step up to the task. The Hawks hold the offensive advantage, but the Cavs are that much better defensively ranking 8th in defensive efficiency compared to the Hawks at 28th. With this low number we are basically just asking the Cavs to win this game outright and they are 38-18 SU at home since the start of last season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.8PPG. Atlanta is 25-33 SU their last 58 road games with a negative differential of minus -1.1PPG. Atlanta playing without rest is 5-12 SU their last 17, minus -2.4PPG. Let’s back the shorthanded Cavs at home in desperation mode.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - These same two team met in Orlando in late November with the Celtics favored by -5.5-points. The Magic pulled the upset 113-96 when the C’s shot poorly at 41% while the Magic shot above their average at 51%. If Boston was a road favorite of -5.5-points they should be a larger favorite at home where they are 11-0 with an average margin of Victory of plus +15.9PPG. Orlando is 11-2 SU their last 13 games but 8 of those came at home. Their last two road games have been losses by 10 and 28-points. Boston has a big advantage from beyond the arc as the Magic shoot just 34.3% from Deep which ranks 26th in the NBA. Boston is the 13th best FG% shooting team in the NBA and rank 16th from the 3-point line. These two teams are very even defensively but the C’s are much better offensively ranking 7th in OEFF compared to the Magic who rank 18th. Lay the points.

ASA TOP PLAY on 10* UNDER 258.5 or 259 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in the In Season tournament with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks 128-119 as a 5.5-point underdog. There was a fallout in the Bucks locker room after the game regarding their defensive intensity, so we are expecting a much better effort on that end of the court tonight. The Bucks were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA a year ago allowing just 1.090 points per possession but have dropped to 23rd this season. Milwaukee is not that bad defensively, so we are expecting a trend up in this defensive category as the season wears on. Even with the Pacers being one of the fastest paced teams in the league and the most efficient offensively it will take great shooting and a lot of possession to eclipse tonight’s O/U number. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined for 198 field goal attempts, and both shot above 45% and the game finished with 247 total points. There have been roughly 339 NBA games played this season and only 24 of those games have finished with more total points being scored than tonight’s Over-Under. We are clearly betting the value and Under in this one.

ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 241 New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - Even if Zion Williamson can’t play tonight, we like this game Over. The Wizard routinely give up 130 or more points and if the Pels get to that number this game goes Over the total easily. Washington has allowed 130+ in 7 of their last ten games and 4 of their last five. They rank last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and points allowed per game at 126.3PPG. We know we will get plenty of possessions in this game as the Wiz rank 2nd in pace of play, the Pelicans are above average at 12th. New Orleans is 12th in DEFF but in their last five games they haven’t been as good on that end of the court ranking 22nd. It’s a given the Pelicans are going to score here but we obviously need Washington to put up points also and they should. Washington is 6th in team field goal percentage at 48.2%, and 10th in scoring at 115.6PPG. New Orleans gives up 113.9PPG which is the 18th highest number in the NBA. We expect plenty of points in this game and will play Over.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 vs Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We are making this wager with the assumption that Kevin Durant will be in the lineup tonight against his former team. These team have very similar efficiency stats with the Suns allowing 1.149 points per possession compared to the Warriors 1.146PPP. Offensively the Suns rank 9th in OEFF, the Warriors are 13th. This is difficult to comprehend but the Warriors currently rank 25th in the NBA in shooting at 45.2% and hit 36.7% from beyond the Arc which is 13th and well below the Warriors standards. Golden State will have a hard time shooting it tonight against a Suns team that is 9th best in opponents FG% overall and 6th defending the 3-point line. Phoenix is the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and 15th overall at 47.5%. The Warriors do defend the 3 well allowing just 34.2% but with the potential return of Bradley Beal it will be tough to defend all the shooters the Suns can run at them. Two of the Warriors cornerstone scorers are really struggling right now as Wiggins and Thompson can’t seem to find their shooting stokes. The Suns have beaten this Warriors team twice already this season including an 8-point win on this floor in late November.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - Brooklyn’s strength offensively is shooting the 3-ball as they are the best in the league in that department at 38.7%. The Kings don’t defend the 3 well allowing 37.5% 3PT shooting by opponents which is 24th in the NBA. Sacramento is more of a volume team as the 11th fastest paced team in the NBA and the 12th most efficient. You won’t find either of these teams in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings either as the Kings rank 20th, the Nets are 17th. The Kings score an average of 120PPG at home while the Nets allow 120PPG on the road. Brooklyn is averaging 120PPG away from home and the Kings give up 119PPG. The Kings are on a 7-2 Over streak at home this season and are on a 34-19 Over run at home dating back to the start of last season. Now that Brooklyn is healthy the offense has started to click with 128, 129, 114 and 124 points in their last four games. With the added rest we like both teams to be fresh and expect the offenses to be locked in. Bet OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two teams and the Thunder have already won 2 of the three. If you bet these two teams based on their logos or history, you’ll probably be on the Warriors, but the facts of the matter are, OKC is the better team right now. Golden State stands 10-10 SU on the season and it’s a bye product of two things, poor shooting and lack of defense. The Warriors were 4th in effective FG% a year ago but currently rank 22nd this season. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are broke right now as Thompson is shooting a career low 39.7% overall and 34.8% from deep. Wiggins has a career shooting average of 44.9% overall and 35.2% from deep but he’s hitting just 42.3% and 26.2% this season. Last year the Warriors were 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.118PPP. This season they rank 14th at 1.107PPP. Golden State has slipped defensively, also ranking 15th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.140PPP. Oklahoma City is the 4th best team in the NBA in offensive efficiency and average 119.6PPG with the 3rd best EFG% at 56.2%. The Thunder also play defense with the 7th best DEFF rating in the league and hold foes to the second lowest FG% in the league at 43.7%. The Thunder are a solid home team with a 30-21 SU record dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.3PPG. Golden State is 17-40 SU their last 57 road games with a negative differential of minus -3.7PPG. OKC is coming off a loss on the road to Houston and will be up for this home date with Golden State. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 5 PM ET - *NOTE THE EARLY TIPOFF* - We like the Bucks big here in this In Season Tourney game. The Pacers are coming off a HUGE home win over the Celtics and fed off the energy from the home crowd. Now the young Pacers are playing on a neutral court against a motivated Bucks team. Milwaukee is starting to figure things out with their new lineup and the addition of Dame Lillard. They beat a very good Knicks team the other night handily at home by 24-points. The Bucks are 10-2 SU their last twelve games while the Pacers check in with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games. This is the second meeting of the season for these two teams with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks at home by 2-points as a 1-point underdog. Milwaukee has beaten this franchise in 8 of the last ten meetings overall. Both teams are highly efficient on the offensive end of the court ranking 1st and 6th in OEFF but the Bucks hold an advantage on the defensive end of the court as the Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee also defends the 3-point line well by holding opponents to 36.3% shooting which is 13th best in the NBA. Conversely, the Pacers allow foes to make 39.1% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 28th and the Bucks own the 6th best 3PT% in the league. Fear the Deer!

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Raptors here and predict a double-digit win by the home team. Miami is dealing with two key injuries to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo which has made them an ‘average’ team at best. The Heat have a positive net rating but have faced the 21st easiest schedule in the NBA. Toronto on the other hand has a slight negative differential but they have faced the 5th toughest schedule in the league this season. Miami is 6-6 SU on the road this season with a +1.8PPG differential. Toronto is 5-4 SU at home with an average MOV of +3.8PPG. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, but the Heat are clearly not at full strength here. The Raptors are coming off a home loss to the Knicks but had won 3 straight at home by 7, 13 and 29-points. Toronto owned Miami last season by winning 3 of the four regular season meetings SU, covering all four. The Raptors are 31-21 ATS at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +4PPG. We like Toronto at home in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are surprised this Total opened as high as it did and like the value with an Under wager here. These two teams are known for their defenses as the Magic allow just 1.073 points per possession which ranks 3rd in the league, while the Cavs rank 13th allowing 1.136PPP. Cleveland is the 10th slowest paced team in the league at 98.5 possessions per game. Orlando plays slightly faster at 100.1 possessions p/game. In their last ten games the Magic have recently faced Brooklyn, Washington (2x’s), Charlotte, Indiana and Chicago who all rank 21st or worse in DEFF. Tonight, they face a Cavs team that allows opponents to shoot just 45.3% (7th) and give up the 8th fewest points in the league at 111.2PPG. Orlando isn’t a great offensive team either, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency and they don’t shoot it particularly well from deep at 35.4% which is 21st in the NBA. Cleveland is worse in OEFF ranking 22nd overall and they hit just 34.3% from beyond the Arc which ranks 26th. In four meetings last season these two teams had totals set of 213.5, 223, 217.5 and 215.5, which are all significantly lower than tonight’s O/U. Three of those four games all finished with 212 or less total points. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA Top Play on 10* NY Knicks +5.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks are still going through the growing pains with their new lineup and the addition of Damian Lillard. Milwaukee is still one of the best teams in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.187 points per possession but defensively they rank 20th after finishing 4th a year ago. New York owns the 8th best DEFF rating allowing 1.108PPP while also ranking 11th in OEFF. The Knicks also have the better overall point differential in the league at plus +3.8PPG, the Bucks average +2.9PPG. New York is one of 12 teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.5PPG. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU at home but their average margin of victory is only +2.7PPG. That is a significant drop from last years average of +5.9PPG at home for the Bucks which was the 6th best in the league. These two teams met in early November on this floor with the Bucks winning 110-105. Since that loss the Knicks have won 10 of their last thirteen games. The last three meetings have been decided by 6-points or less. We expect this game to go down to the wire and will grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This In Season tournament starts tonight and has two great matchups with one of them being this game between the Pelicans and Kings. The Pelicans are at full strength right now and currently undervalued by the oddsmakers. New Orleans beat this Kings team twice at home in mid-November by 36 and 5-points but played without starting PG CJ McCollum in both. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram carried the scoring load with 105 combined total points in the two games. New Orleans in their last five games own the 12th best offensive efficiency rating and the 4th best defensive efficiency rating. In comparison, the Kings are 13th in OEFF and 16th in DEFF. The Pelicans have thrived as an underdog this season with a 8-3-1 ATS record while the Kings are just 4-7 ATS as a favorite. New Orleans has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Kings and in this tourney opener we like the Dog and the points.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The Magic are absolutely cooking right now with 9 straight wins and an overall 14-5 SU record for the season. The last team to beat this Magic teams was this Nets team back on November 14th. Brooklyn catches the Magic in a favorable scheduling situation here as Orlando is playing their second leg of a back to back. Orlando beat Washington last night and will also be playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in seven days. Brooklyn is rested here with their last game coming on Nov. 30th, a home loss which makes this situation even better. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four games and are finally getting healthy with five of their top six players available tonight. These teams have a similar net rating by our metrics but the Nets have played our 11th toughest schedule compared to the Magics 28th rated. We like the Nets advantage with their 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting versus the Magic’s 17th ranked 3PT% defense. Orlando typically takes advantage of teams by forcing turnovers and turning them into points, but the Nets are 11th in TO’s so they won’t give the Magic that edge. The Nets beat this team at home in mid-November 124-104 and we are betting on a similar outcome today.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 236.5 San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Spurs are coming off a game last night in which they allowed 137 points to the Hawks but scored 135 themselves. When playing without rest this season the Spurs have allowed 120 and 152 points. The Spurs allow 1.193 points per possession which ranks 26th in the league. They give up 123.4PPG which is the 3rd most. We know there will be plenty of possessions in this contest as the Spurs are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.1 possessions per game. New Orleans also prefers to play up-tempo with the 8th fastest paced number in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength here with the return of CJ McCollum and are coming off a 124-point outing against the 76ers. New Orleans should have an easy time scoring here against this Spurs defense that ranks 27th or worse in: FG% defense, field goals made per game, field goals attempted and 3PT% against. With the Pels having a high probability of scoring 125 or more points we like this game to go Over the total.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Celtics and Cavaliers and now step down in talent to face the Spurs. This game becomes much more important for the Hawks off those two losses with a road date against the Bucks looming. As far as the Spurs are concerned, they have lost 12 straight games and even Wemby can’t save this team this season. Maybe politics and other concerns have damped Coach Popovich’s competitive drive? No matter what the issues are, we do know this. The Spurs own the 3rd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -12.4PPG. At home they are losing by an average of -8.3PPG. They rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 19th in DEFF. In comparison, the Hawks allow 1.238 points per possession (27th) but they beat teams offensively by averaging 1.246PPP which is 3rd best in the NBA. In six of their last seven home games the Spurs have lost by 7 or more points. Atlanta recently beat the Wizards on the road by 28-points as a 9.5 point favorite. The Wiz and Spurs are similar teams and we expect another double digit win by the visitor in this one.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points being scored. We don’t expect this game to be ‘average’. The host Pelicans like to play at a faster rate as they rank 8th in possessions per game. Philadelphia slightly lower than league average at 98.8 possessions per game. Philly scores their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.202 points per possession which is 3rd in the NBA. The Pels aren’t as efficient but still manage 112.9PPG. We are seeing New Orleans trend in the positive direction offensively with an efficiency rating of 1.168PPP which ranks 12th best over the last 5 games. Defensively these two teams rank 12th and 13th in points allowed per possession. The Sixers average 17.5 fast break points per game, the Pelicans average 14.8 which is 11th best in the league. Both teams also feast in the paint ranking 9th and 11th in points in the lane. Last season in the two meetings these two combined for 231 and 243 total points. It all adds up to a higher scoring game between these two teams.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -2 vs Golden State Warriors – 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors typically get everyone’s best shot on a nightly basis with their lofty reputation. The Kings are no exception here and even have a little more to play for after the Warriors knocked them out of the Playoffs last season and beat them twice this year. On Oct 27th the Warriors went to Sacramento and won 122-114 as a 3-point dog. Then on Nov 1st the Warriors won at home 102-101 but the Kings were without All-Star point guard DeAaron Fox. Fox is averaging just under 30PPG and 6APG and is clearly one of the Kings two best players along with Sabonis. Golden State is just 3-8 SU their last eleven games and two of those wins came against the struggling Spurs and Pistons. Sacramento is 7-2 SU their last nine games and coming off a big road win over the Timberwolves. The Kings are a respectable 29-21 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +2.7PPG. Golden State is 17-38 SU away since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. We like the Kings to get a measure of revenge in this one.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 236 Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Washington is last in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.210PPP and give up over 125PPG. Washington is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA with 103.3 possessions per game. Detroit is 13th in pace of play and prefers an up-tempo approach. The Wizards have allowed 130 or more points in 4 of their last six games. Detroit has given up 119 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Washington should have a solid shooting night with the 7th best FG% shooting team in the NBA going up against the 17th ranked FG% Pistons defense. Everyone shoots well against Washington as we mentioned, and both score well in transition with the Pistons ranking 2nd and the Wiz 8th in fast break efficiency. It’s a big number but we like Over.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - The Nuggets are coming off a 1-4 five game road stretch and are playing with only 1 day rest. On the season the Nuggets average 1.171 points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA but in their last five games they are averaging 1.163PPP. The decline in scoring of course has a lot to do with the injury to All-Star PG Murray and his 16.3PPG missing from the lineup. Denver allows just 107.6PPG at home this season which is the 4th best number in the NBA. In comparison, the Spurs are averaging only 106.4PPG on the road which is 17th. On the season the Spurs rank 2nd to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.066PPP while shooting just 45.5% (24th). The young Spurs typically want to play fast but the home team Nuggets will dictate tempo and they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league. Denver is on a 6-2 Under run, the Spurs have stayed Under in 3 straight. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3.5 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - This is an ideal situation to back the Nets at home who are rested, playing an unrested Heat team AND playing with revenge from a loss to the Heat just over a week ago. Miami played last night in New York and tonight’s game will be their 4th in six days, 3rd in four days. Brooklyn has been off since the 22nd and will be well rested heading into this game. On Nov 16th the Nets lost in Miami 115-122 as a +3.5-point underdog. The game was relatively even statistically, but the Heat shot it slightly better overall and from beyond the arc. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four at home with their most recent home game being a blowout loss to the 76ers. Miami is 6-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing on the second night of a back to back. Brooklyn is 11-7-1 ATS in that same time frame when playing with 2-3 days rest. Miami is 28-37-3 when coming off a win since the start of last season. Brooklyn had beaten the Heat 6 straight times prior to the recent loss and we are betting they get back on the winning track here.

ASA top play 10* on #566 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is a big game for the In Season Tournament as both teams are 2-0 in pool play and the winner of this game essentially locks up the In Season bid. Minnesota was just a -7-point favorite at home against the 76ers and are now laying just -4 against the Kings? These teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings with the Kings averaging 1.137-points per possession while the Wolves average 1.135PPP. Minnesota owns the 6th best FG% number in the league at 48.9%. Sacramento doesn’t shoot it overly well at 46.2% (22nd) but they make 3-pointers at a 14.6 per game clip which is 5th most. The difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. The Wolves are 1st in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.062PPP compared to the Kings who rank 16th in the NBA allowing 1.144PPP. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the league defending the 3-point line holding opponents to 32.4% shooting (2nd). Sacramento allows opponents to hit 48.9% of their field goal attempts which is 23rd in the league. Minnesota has won 3 of the last four meetings with the Kings getting one win in OT last year. Minnesota has the 2nd best average home differential in the league at +17.3PPG. The Kings have a negative road differential of minus -3.2PPG. Back the home team here by more than 4-points.

ASA top play on 10* #536 Boston Celtics -5.5 or -6 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is the biggest game on the schedule tonight and we are backing the Celtics at home minus the points. The Celtics are coming off a loss and back at home where they haven’t lost this season. Boston has an average +/- of +22.4PPG at home this season and it’s come against quality opponents including the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Raptors and Knicks. We realize the Celtics can’t continue that torrid point differential at home, but we won’t be surprised if that average is double digits by seasons end. Last season the C’s average +/- at home was +8.8PPG. Last season the Celtics beat the Bucks badly in two of the three meetings with a pair of 41-point wins. Milwaukee is still going through an adjustment period with a new coach and Damian Lillard. The Bucks are 10-4 SU but it’s come against a very soft schedule (25th). These two teams are similar offensively with the Buck ranking 7th in offensive efficiency, the Celtics are 3rd. Defensively it’s not close as the C’s are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency the Bucks are 25th. With Milwaukee still going through a transition period we like Boston to get a dominating win at home tonight.

ASA top play on 10*: #522 Atlanta Hawks -3.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game for the East Group A pool in the In-Season Tournament as the Pacers are 2-0 and leading the group with the Hawks in the 4th spot at 1-1. Atlanta is on the outside looking in but still have an opportunity to get into the mid-season finals if they beat the Pacers here and get a win over Cleveland. The Hawks are 2-3 SU their last five games and have currently lost three straight home games but we like them to get back on track here. Not to mention, the three recent home losses came to the 76ers, Knicks and Heat. The young Pacers have only played 4 road games this season with a 2-2 SU record. Comparing these two teams when it comes to efficiency ratings we find the Pacers hold a slight edge offensively ranking 1st while the Hawks are 5th. Defensively the Pacers are the 27th worst in DEFF with the Hawks ranking 22nd. Atlanta has the 9th best net differential when you factor in their strength of schedule while the Pacers are 19th. Atlanta has won 6 of the last seven meetings with five of those coming by 3 or more points. This line isn’t what it should be as our power ratings have the Hawks favored by nearly 6-points.

ASA top play on 10* #508 Minnesota Timberwolves -2 or -130 money line vs NY Knicks – 8:10 PM ET - If you haven’t noticed, the Timberwolves are playing at an extremely high level and are considered one of the best teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota has won 8 of their last nine games and are 9-3 on the season. The Wolves have done it against a very formidable schedule with recent wins against the Nuggets, Celtics, Warriors and Pelicans. The Wolves are 5-0 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +18.2PPG. The Knicks have won 6 of their last seven games but the wins have come against some of the league’s worst teams including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards. Typically, New York would ‘out-defense’ you here, but the fact of the matter is the Wolves are better defensively owning the #1 efficiency rating in the NBA. When it comes to offense these teams are near even in efficiency ratings, but again, the Knicks have faced an easier schedule. Back the home team here.

ASA Top Play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic – 5:10 PM ET - These two teams have been big surprises in the Eastern Conference this season and both of their young rosters have played exceptionally well. Orlando comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, Indiana is 7-4 SU. These teams play two entirely different styles of play as the Pacers try to outscore you whereas the Magic focus their energy on the defensive end of the court. Indiana is averaging a league best 1.223-points per possession and score 126.5PPG. Orlando has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league and allow 106.6PPG. We are betting the Pacers outscore the Magic here. Indiana is second in pace of play and the young Magic rank 15th meaning they can and will get sucked into playing an uptempo game today. Despite playing fast in high possession games, the Pacers don’t turn the ball over with the 3rd fewest TO’s in the league. Orlando on the other hand averages the 3rd most TO’s on the season at 16.3 per game. Pacer PG Tyrese Haliburton is playing at an All-Star level averaging 24.7PPG, 12.5 APG points per game, and his 12.5 assists per leads the NBA. We are not as impressed with the Magics recent two road wins over a Bulls team that is on the trade market. Indiana on the other hand has won 4 of their last five games including wins over the 76ers and Bucks in that stretch. They also own a pair of wins over a Cavs team this season that plays a similar style to the Magic. Orlando has a negative differential on the road this season of -5PPG, Indiana at home has a +11.3PPG differential which is 5th best in the NBA. Let’s lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30 PM ET - The Victor Webanyama hype is starting to die down and it’s becoming very clear just how far the Spurs have to go to be relevant again. San Antonio has lost 6 straight by an average of 19.5PPG, albeit two of those losses were by 36 and 41-points. But that’s also an indicator of just how bad this team can be at times. Sacramento is playing like the team that won 48 regular season games a year ago with 4 straight W’s. The last two victories were impressive with a 15-point win against the Lakers and a 12-point win over the Cavs. The Kings were the #1 most efficient offense in the NBA a year ago and averaged 120.8PPG. They’ve gotten off to a slow start this season but have a great opportunity to get right here against a Spurs defense that is 28th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.197-points per possession. Sacramento has not shot the 3-ball well at 33.9% but the Spurs allow opponents to hit over 40% of their 3-point attempts. San Antonio is also 28th in the league in offensive efficiency scoring just 1.068PPP. This is one of the In Season Tournament games, so it has added incentive for the Kings who trail the Timberwolves by a win in the Western Conference group C. The Spurs are essentially eliminated from contention with a 0-2 record. Sacramento has won 5 of the last six meetings with the Spurs with all of those wins coming by 7 or more points. Lay it here with the Kings.

ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 227 Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors will be without Draymond Green (who doesn’t impact this number significantly) and Steph Curry who clearly has a huge impact on the game/outcome. Curry has carried the Warriors offensively this season averaging 30.7 points per game, on 49% shooting from the field and 45% from beyond the Arc. His absence was obvious in their most recent game against the Wolves when they managed just 101-points and shot just 42% from the field as a team. They also hit just 13 of 39 3-pointers in the game. Another factor is the pace of play and how it changes with the aging Chris Paul on the floor who prefers to play slow. The Warriors are 24th in the league in effective FG% at 52% but have an EF% of 47.4% in their last three games. It won’t be an easy task scoring tonight against a Thunder defense that ranks 7th in overall efficiency ratings allowing just 1.097-points per possession. OKC has held their last three opponents to 105 (Kings), 99 (Suns) and 87 (Spurs) points. This has been a very high scoring series but without Curry on the floor we expect a much lower scoring output in this one. If we go back to 2019 the Warriors are 78-89 (53.3%) Under when coming off a loss.

ASA top play on #513 Sacramento Kings +1.5 vs LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - This is a very favorable scheduling situation for the Kings as they catch the Lakers off a win last night over Memphis. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, it’s also the 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. How much will LeBron even play tonight? The Kings have had their ups and downs but now have DeAaron Fox back from injury and have won 3 straight. The Kings last game/win came on Nov 13th over the Cavaliers 132-120. These two teams have similar efficiency ratings when it comes to defense, but offensively It’s not close as the Kings average 1.127 points per possession compared to the Lakers 1.088PPP. Last season in this scheduling situation the Lakers had one of the worst efficiency differentials in the NBA at minus -10.7 and they won just 40% of those games. The Kings have been especially good on the offensive glass in their last three games, averaging 13 O-boards per game compared to the Lakers 8.7. This means more to the Kings who have always had to look up to the Lakers and it’s shown in recent years with the Kings winning 5 of the last six meetings, including a 5-point win earlier this season. We like Sacramento here over a fatigued Lakers team.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - This line opened 233.5 and has moved down giving us added value with an Over bet. The Hawks are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.2 possessions per game. Detroit is slightly below average at 99.5 for the season. Detroit is 21st in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.103 points per possession. The Hawks are 5th at 1.177PPP. The key here is that both are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defensive efficiency as both allow more than 1.140 points per possession. In their last five games, each team has been worse on the defensive end of the court allowing 117.6PPG (Hawks) and 118.6PPG (Pistons). Atlanta does a great job on the offensive boards with the 5th best average in the league compared to the Pistons who rank 14th in allowing O-boards. Conversely, the Pistons are 7th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, while the Hawks the 15th most. Both teams convert in transition extremely well ranking 3rd and 9th in fast break efficiency. Atlanta is coming off two straight games against top 10 defensive efficiency teams in the Heat and Magic and those games finished with 226 and 239 total points. Detroit is coming off two lower scoring games by their standards, but they faced a top 10 defense in Philly and the 3rd slowest paced team in the Bulls. Last season in four meetings these two teams scored 231, 248, 235 and 236. Bet Over!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have opened some eyes this season with a current 4 game winning streak with impressive wins against Boston and Denver in that stretch. Granted, both W’s were at home but now they face a young Spurs team going through growing pains. San Antonio is 4-6 SU on the season but have now lost 3 straight with one of those being at home to the Raptors as a +3.5-point underdog. The Wolves should be a bigger favorite here if Toronto was laying -3.5. Minnesota is 3rd in the league in average point differential at plus +10.6PPG. San Antonio is last in the league in +/- at minus -12.5PPG. Neither offense has been great, ranking near league average in offensive efficiency, but defensively it’s not close. In fact, there couldn’t be a great difference between two teams in the league when it come to DEFF with the Wolves ranking 1st and the Spurs 30th. We will lay the points and predict a double-digit win by Minnesota in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 LA Lakers @ Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - We don’t see many points being scored in this contest and will bet UNDER the total. Houston is actually playing defense for their new coach Udoka which shouldn’t be a surprise considering his Celtics in 21-22 was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Houston has held the Kings to 97 and 89 points in their last two games and also held the Warriors to 106 four games ago. The Kings and Warriors were both top 10 in offensive efficiency a year ago. Now they face a Lakers team that was 20th in OEFF last season and currently rank 25th this season at 1.047-points per possession. Houston is ranked near league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency with their games averaging 218.8 total points per game. The Lakers are scoring less than the league average at 111.1PPG and rank 29th in team 3PT% at 29.8%. Both teams favored the UNDER last season when playing in this rest schedule with a combined 12-17-1 combined record.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 in Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - NBA games are averaging 225.2 points per game but this game will be anything but ‘average’. The Wiz are the fastest paced team in the league 105.5 possessions per game. They have to play fast because they don’t play defense and they are not overly efficient on the offensive end. Washington is averaging 115PPG but allowing 125.2PPG. They are 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency. That’s not a good recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that is averaging 1.188-points per possession which is 4th best in the league. The Sixers are the 6th best FG% team in the league at 48.6%, 6th in 3PT% at 39% and it doesn’t hurt they make their free throws at 81.8% which is 5th. Washington has some of the worst defensive numbers in the league including being last in FG% D and 28th in 3PT% D. The Wiz have faced Atlanta, Boston and Indiana this season who have similar scoring number to Philly and those three teams put 130, 126 and 143 points against Washington. Easy Over call here.

ASA Top Play 10* on: #513 Sacramento Kings -2 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - We will back a good team in the West, the Kings, off a loss against one of the worst teams in the NBA off their first win of the season. Houston shot INSANELY well in their win over the Hornets by hitting 57% or 21 of 37 3-pointers. Going into that game the Rockets were shooting just 29.3% from deep. Houston put up 128 points but that was against a Charlotte defense that is one of the worst in the NBA. Against two comparable defenses to the Kings, the Rockets have failed to top 100 points against the Magic and Warriors. Sacramento grades out near even to the Warriors in our power ratings and Golden State was a 7-point favorite on this floor just last week. The Kings are 10th in offensive efficiency this season and 15th defensively. In comparison the Rockets are 23rd in OEFF and 27th in DEFF. Sacramento has beaten this team 6 straight times and only one of those wins was by less than 3-points. You’ll be surprised to know that the Kings are the best team in the league ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season with a 24-14 ATS record. Lay the small points or consider the money line in the -125 range.

ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 225.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:10PM ET - This is a rematch from a game earlier this season in Cleveland where these two teams combined for 238 total points. Two things stand out from those results. 1) The Cavs had a 12-point quarter which is drastically lower than an average NBA quarter. 2) The Cavaliers played without their best player and leading scorer Donovan Mitchell who averages over 31PPG. The Pacers may be without T Haliburton here but that just means more minutes/opportunities for Aaron Nesmith who scored 26 points against this Cavs team in the first meeting. Indiana is 4th in pace of play which means they’ll want to play fast here. Cleveland is one of the slower teams, but they average 1.048 points per possession which is the 6th most efficient offense in the league. Indiana has the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.204 points per possession allowed. Cleveland hasn’t been as good defensively to start this season ranking 16th in DEFF. These two teams combined for 225 or more points in 4 of the last five meetings. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL.

ASA Top Play 10* on: #559 Orlando Magic Pick'em at Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Yes, you read that correctly, we are taking the road favorite Magic tonight. Scheduling will be a factor here as the Jazz are coming off a game last night versus Memphis and also just played in Denver on the 30th. Last season when playing without rest the Jazz were 4-11 SU with a negative differential. The Magic will hold a huge advantage on the defensive end of the court as they rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.001 points per possession. The last place or 30th team in the NBA in DEFF is the Utah Jazz allowing 1.223PPP. In terms of offensive efficiency these teams are nearly identical at 1.111 points per possession. The Jazz were 16-21 SU last season off a win, and this is going to be a tough situation against a rested Magic team off a loss in their previous game. Take the better defense and back the Magic.

ASA top play 10* on: #546 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation to back the Wolves at home here as they are coming off a loss to the Hawks and playing with revenge from last year’s playoffs series loss to Denver. Minnesota actually played well in Atlanta the other night but couldn’t overcome some hot shooting by the Hawks. Minnesota shot 49% from the field overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Denver is 4-0 to the start the season but we’re not sold on their record as it’s come against the Lakers, Grizzlies, Thunder and Jazz. Only one of those wins comes against a team with a winning record and two of those wins are against teams with a combined 1-7 SU record. The Wolves were 22-19 SU at home last season with an average Margin of Victory of +0.9PPG while the Nuggets weren’t a great road team with a 19-22 SU record -3.1PPG. Denver may have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating this season, but the Wolves are 7th in defensive efficiency. Last season Karl-Anthony Towns missed all four regular season meetings with the Nuggets and he’ll have a big impact in this game that Minnesota has had circled since last season’s playoffs. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - We were not high on the Warriors heading into the season and nothing on the court has changed that opinion. The Warriors were atrocious on the road last season with a 11-30 SU record and an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG which was 8th worst in the NBA. Tonight, they are playing the second end of a back-to-back and face a rested Pelicans team playing their second straight home game. The Pels have already beaten two playoff teams from a season ago with a 7-point win in Memphis and a 9-point home victory over the 76ers. Despite missing Zion Willamson all of last season and Brandon Ingram for a portion of the season the Pels still put together a 27-14 SU home record with an average +/- of +5PPG. Last season at home the Pelicans beat the Warriors twice, once by 9-points and once by 45. Golden State is still a marquee team and opponents ‘get up’ every time they face the Warriors and you can bet the Pelicans bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Lay the short number.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - This is a great early season situation to back the Pelicans at home facing the unrested Knicks. New York is off a hard fought game last night in Atlanta making this the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four nights. Last night the Knicks had a tight rotation with essentially 8 players getting all the minutes so fatigue becomes a factor in this one. New Orleans got off to a great start to the season with a road win on Oct 25th in Memphis. This will be their home opener where the Pels were 27-15 SU with an average +/- of plus 4.8PPG last season. New Orleans achieved that record despite not having Zion Williamson for the season and missing Brandon Ingram for 37 games. In the season opener they had their starting five in place for the 111-104 win over Memphis where they dominated the glass with a 52-37 rebound advantage. This game has blowout written all over it. Back the Pelicans at home here.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with a Nets team off a home loss, while the Mavs are off a road win. Dallas got a 7-point win over the young San Antonio Spurs who won just 22 games a year ago. Brooklyn took a contender in the Eastern Conference down to the wire and lost by 1-point to the Cavaliers. The Nets suffered that close loss despite their best players having off nights. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie led the Nets in scoring a year ago at 26.1PPG, 16.6PPG and 16.5PPG respectively. Between the 3 of them in the opener they managed just 37-total points. Those players will see a dramatic improvement in their scoring tonight seeing they just faced a Cavs team that was 1st in defensive efficiency a year ago. Dallas by comparison was 23rd in the league in DEFF a season ago. The Nets had a winning record on the road last season at 22-19 with a +/- of -1.3PPG. Dallas at home was 23-18 SU with an average Margin of Victory of +2.7PPG. Last season the Mavs were the worst home favorite in the NBA with a 10-23-2 ATS record. As an away dog the Nets were a profitable 15-11 ATS. Easy call to grab the points with Brooklyn

ASA NBA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* BOSTON CELTICS -3 at NY Knicks – 7:10 PM ET - If you missed our Futures bet article, we had the Celtics over their win total this season. The Celtics went through a major overhaul of their roster BUT the players they brought in are selfless and will conform to the Boston way much quicker than others might. That’ the genius of GM Brad Stevens who knows he had a core to get to a Championship series, he just needed a few other parts to win it all. Those key pieces are Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. This team won’t miss a beat and will open the season with a big win over the rival Knicks. Including the playoffs, the Celtics were 31-19 SU on the road with an average +/- of +2.9PPG which was best in the league. New York pretty much stood pat with their roster in the offseason with a team that went 47-35 SU and owned the 7th best overall Margin of Victory of +2.9PPG. Boston and New York were very similar in terms of offensive efficiency with both ranking in the top 4 but defensively it wasn’t close as the Celtics finished the year 3rd in DEFF while the Knicks were 19th. The Knicks beat the C’s 3 straight in the series, all as underdogs but we like Boston to open this season with a W.

ASA NBA top play on: LA Lakers +5.5 at Denver Nuggets – 7:30PM ET - The Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the Playoffs last season, but all four games were decided by 11-points or less. Three of the four games had a final margin of 6-points or less. A couple things we know for certain tonight, which we may not know in the regular season, is that LeBron and Anthony Davis are both eager to play. Nuggets head coach Malone had some things to say about the Lakers after they swept them last season and apparently the Lakers took offense. In reality, talk is cheap, and that motivation will only last early in the game and then it’s business as usual. We do like the Lakers' improvements to their roster. Gabe Vincent gives them another playmaking guard that can shoot. Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince add to their depth along with Christian Wood. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road a season ago with an average plus/minus of -2.1PPG. Denver was 34-7 SU at home in the regular season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. The Lakers made solid strides in the second half of the season, especially defensively as they finished the year allowing just 1.140-points per possession. The Nuggets lost two key components to their roster with the departure of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green while the Lakers got stronger with their additions. Don’t be surprised if LA wins this game outright.

ASA Top Play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -8.5 vs Miami Heat, Game 5 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - The Heat have been a fantastic story this postseason after upsetting the two best teams in the East to make the Finals, but their season comes to an end tonight. Miami got some incredible contributions from a few of their role players but it’s apparent that Cinderella story has come to an end. Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have essentially disappeared in the Finals and Adebayo/Butler can only carry the load so far. Denver’s three wins in this series have all come by double-digits and in the most recent game they got a less than normal performance from their two SuperStars Murray and Jokic. With the Nuggets back at home where they are 9-1 SU in the playoffs, and currently own an average +/- of +9.9PPG on the entire season, we expect a convincing win against a team that has run out of gas. The Nugs have also won 37 of their last 42 home games.

ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 4 Friday 8:30 PM ET - This is tough for me as we predicted the Nuggets in 5 games but with how the last game played out, we expect Game 4 to go down to the wire. The Nuggets adapted in Game 3 after the Heat used Jimmy Butler as the primary defender on Murray in G2 and it paid off with Jamal scoring 34-points. Now it’s Spoelstra’s turn to make an adjustment and we’re confident he will have a new dynamic in Game 4 for the Nugget to try and figure out. Denver used Jokic and Murray in an exclusive 2-man game and told the rest of the team to watch and it worked perfectly. Miami’s defense wasn’t the main culprit though as their offense failed them. The Heat shot just 37% overall and 31% from the 3-point line. In the postseason, the Heat are shooting .469% overall and .392% from beyond the arc. Miami has been the best overall 3-point shooting team in the playoffs. With their backs against the wall, we like the Miami shooters to find the range at home in this do-or-die Game 4. Miami is 17-6 SU at home off a loss this season including a 5-2 SU record in the postseason. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, Game 3 Weds 8:30 PM ET - We’ve hit our two Side wagers on the first two games of this series and will now bet the Over/Under in Game 3. We like UNDER the Total and expect a lower scoring game. In the opener these two teams combined for 197 total points on 175 FG attempts. Miami had a poor shooting night and only attempted 2 FT’s in the game. In Game 2 there were only 153 field goal attempts, yet the game creeped Over the Total of 216 when 219 points were scored. The big reason that Over cashed was incredible shooting by the Heat in the 4th quarter. Miami made 7 straight FG’s to start the 4th on their way to a 36-point quarter. Both teams also shot well above expectations in Game 2 so expect a regression in Game 3. As far as the pace of play is concerned these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league during the regular season ranking 2nd slowest (MIA) and 8th (DEN). Both of these teams have averaged fewer possessions per game in the postseason too. The Nuggets head coach Malone and veteran Jeff Green called out their team defensively after Game 2 so expect a much better effort on that end of the court here. BET UNDER!

ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Saturday 8:30 PM ET - These two teams just shot 51% against each other and still only managed 207 total points in the last game. The reason why was the slow deliberate pace by both teams with a combined 157 field goal attempts. The field goal attempts in the first two games were below league average with 166 attempts in Game 1 and 172 in Game 2. The NBA average for FGA per game this season was 176. In Games 3 & 4 they attempted 179 and 162. During the regular season the Heat owned the 9th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.135-points per possession. Boston was 3rd giving up 1.115PPP. In the Playoffs the Celtics are allowing 1.130PPP which is obviously very good, but Miami has been better yet allowing just 1.117PPP which is 4th best. Also, in the postseason both teams’ pace of play has slowed. Two big injuries will also have an impact on the total points scored by these teams. Malcom Brogdon has issues with his shooting arm and may not play. If he does how effective can he be shooting? The big loss for the Heat is Gabe Vincent who has been outstanding in the playoffs. Vincent is averaging 13.5PPG in this series and has provided Miami with another 3-point threat (11 of 22 from Deep vs. Boston) with Tyler Herro on the bench. Both defenses will play at a peak level in this game and expect both teams to favor a much slower tempo. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET Game 4 - All three games of this series have gone Over the total. That’s somewhat surprising considering they have been below the league average in field goal attempts in 2 of three games. But hot shooting by the Heat has been the driving factor. Miami is 26th in the NBA in shooting percentage at 46% and 27th in 3-point percentage at 34.4%. In this series they shot 54%, 46% and 57% in the three games. They have also shot over 52% in two of the three games from beyond the arc. Boston had one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the regular season, but they are giving up 1.142-points per possession in the Playoffs. Off that embarrassing Game 3 blowout I’m betting the Celtics Stars Tatum and Brown will come out firing in this elimination game. The Over has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings. The O/U line is low again so grab the value with Over.

ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET Game 3 - These two teams had an incredible shooting night in Game 1 and produced 258-total points between them. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. In Game 2 we got a game that was much more predictive of what these two teams really are. They combined for 211 total points on 171 field goal attempts. The Lakers came back to Earth with a 44% shooting night and 8 of 30 Game 3 from beyond the arc. Denver was close to their season averages of 44% overall and 37% from deep. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. If you paid close attention to Game 2 then you saw what we saw which was too very fatigued teams from the intensity and higher altitude in Denver. The Lakers defense at home in the postseason has been outstanding as they have held all of their opponents to 104 or less points in regulation time. This will be another low field goal attempt game and stay UNDER the total.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 2 - Everyone just watched these two teams produce 258 total points in Game 1 of this series. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. The Lakers defense just held the Warriors to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should make adjustments to limit Jokic and Murray from scoring 30+. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last eight. Don’t expect Anthony Davis to have a repeat performance of 40 points and it’s unlikely they get 40 combined from Reaves and Hachimura.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 1 - With more money and tickets on the Over you would expect this line to go up, but it didn’t and one respected Sports Book is even carrying 222 on this game. That has us liking the Under even more coupled with our standard statistical projections. The Lakers just faced a Warriors team that was the fastest paced team in the NBA during the regular season AND was the 2nd highest in scoring and the series averaged 222.5PPG. Now the Lakers face a Nuggets team that was 23rd in pace of play a t98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. When the Nuggets have been at home in the Playoffs thus far they have stayed Under 223 total points in 4 of six games. The Lakers defense just held a Warriors team to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should be up for the challenge of slowing this Nuggets team down. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last seven. Our model projects 216 total points here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 212 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - The five games in this series have finished with 234, 208, 216, 214 (in regulation) and 218 total points. The Celtics had scored 114 or more in each game, up until the last one when they managed just 103 points. Boston had a poor shooting night in Game 5 by hitting just 40% overall and 32% from deep. Boston shoots 47.5% as a team overall and 37.7% from the 3-point line. The one game in this series that has stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixes offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 213 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 meetings thus far in this series and we are betting that trend continues. In the first two games of this series the Nuggets dominated at home with an 18-point and 10-point win. The two games in Phoenix were relatively close and in the pivotal Game 3 the Suns won by 5-points despite shooting 57% overall and 45% from Deep. The Nuggets are 39-7 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +10.2PPG. Phoenix is 19-26 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.9PPG. Denver was exceptional off a loss this season with a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS record at home when coming off a defeat. The Nugs have covered 6 of their last seven at home and our computer simulator has them winning this game and getting a cover in the process.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +4.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks have the right makeup to battle through adversity with a tough-minded defensive team and proven coach. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, but we like them to bounce back here. The Knicks shot uncharacteristically badly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. Miami was the benefactor of 31 free throw attempts to the Knicks 22 and the Heat made 28 of those attempts. Miami had an average +/- at home this season of just +1.2PPG which was 20th in the NBA. The Knicks average point differential on the road was 5th best in the league at +1.6PPG. This Knicks team found a way to win 2 road games in Cleveland in the 1st round and they’ll keep this game close to the final buzzer.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 214.5 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 3:30 PM ET - The three games in this series have finished with 234, 208 and 216 total points. The Celtics have done their jobs offensively scoring 114 or more in each. The one game that stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixers offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. James Harden has been especially bad in the last two games, scoring just 12 and 16-points after scoring 45 in Game 1. We predict James will get back on track at home in this pivotal Game 4. Embiid scored 30-points in his second game back from injury and should be even better with a couple games now under his belt. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. 5 of the last eight meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 214 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits.