Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-13-18 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
162 Ohio U at Northern Illinois Rough spot for the Bobcats here after a 27-26 comeback victory at Kent State last week. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Ohio U. This squad has had a tough time on the defensive end this year, despite playing an overall weak slate of offenses. Northern Illinois is back home after three straight road games. The last two being road wins at Eastern Michigan and Ball State. While the offense has been sporadic, the defense has been excellent. On the season the Huskies are allowing just 35.4% of opponent offensive plays to be graded successfully. This team has also done a fine job defending early down success rate. Let’s back the Huskies who have played much better in conference action. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Memphis | 31-30 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
183 Central Florida at Memphis We really expected the Knights to take a step back this season after losing Scott Frost to Nebraska. But that hasn’t been the case with UCF going 4-0 SU & ATS vs FBS opposition. The Knights have permitted just two sacks all season, and have allowed just 36.7% successful offensive plays. The Knights are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite the past 2+ seasons. This is a huge revenge game for the Tigers who lost to the Knights 62-55 in double overtime last season. But if you’ve watched Memphis this year it’s clear this isn’t the same quality team. The Tigers have played quite possibly the weakest schedule in the country. Navy, Georgia State, South Alabama, Tulane and Connecticut. None of those teams are any good, including the Midshipmen who are way down from previous editions. The revenge situation will bring money to the Tigers, but UCF is clearly the much better team. Despite the extremely weak schedule Memphis has allowed 11 sacks which producing just 9. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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10-13-18 | Tennessee +15 v. Auburn | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
185 Tennessee at Auburn The Volunteers have played three of the best teams in the country, West Virginia, Florida and Georgia. They enter this game with a -9 turnover margin in FBS contests. But this team is off a bye and now catch over two touchdowns against one of the worst offenses in the power five conferences. Defensively the Tigers are really good, but this offense has done nothing all season. How about a 36.4% successful offensive play percentage. This from a team that has only played one true road game all season. Only once all season in FBS competition this team has scored more than 24 points. This line is way too high in what is expected to be a low scoring game. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +14 v. Utah | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 32 m | Show | |
111 Arizona at Utah This Arizona offense isn’t nearly as explosive as a year ago. Mainly because QB Khalil Tate isn’t able to run like in the past. But with the offense being more conservative the defense has improved by leaps and bounds. Utah is coming off back to back conference road games before facing the Wildcats here on a short week. Next week the Utes host traditional league power USC. In looking at successful offensive plays Utah has been below FBS average in all but one game this season, last week at Stanford. So right now the Utes enter this game priced higher than at any time this season. On a short week after its biggest victory of the season. Utah is only averaging 22 points per game against FBS competition, tough to lay this number without offensive explosion ability. ARIZONA |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech +7 v. TCU | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 21 m | Show | |
105 Texas Tech at TCU Both teams are coming into this game with uncertainty at the quarterback position. As injuries have affected both starters. But the backups have seen significant time, so we are not worried about who is or isn’t behind center. TCU has had a major problem taking care of the football this season. In four FBS games the Horned Frogs have a -10 turnover margin. This is also a team that has struggled in early down success rate, producing just 59.5% on first downs on first or second down. Texas Tech on the other hand has been much more efficient at 72.8% early down success rate. The Red Raiders have gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma State 41-17 as a 14 1/2 point underdog, the only true road game TT has played this season. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Kliff Kingsbury the past 3+ seasons. We have this game lined more in the field goal range, which gives us plenty of value on the road underdog. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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10-07-18 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 138 h 59 m | Show |
467 Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers While many will feel the Raiders were lucky last week when the refs did not award the Browns the football on a clear fumble recovery. Keep in mind Oakland had a bad break happen to them when Marshawn Lynch broke a tackle and looked like a possible touchdown run, only to see the refs blew the whistle for progress being impeded. The Raiders receivers dropped many passes that should have been caught. In fact, Oakland had a 47% successful plays offense, compared to 41% for the Browns. On the season the Raiders are successful on a whopping 53.8% of offensive plays. The Chargers survived against a 49ers team playing without it’s clearly best quarterback. Still San Francisco had a slightly better early down success rate, as well as a 47% to 46% offensive play success rate. That’s not the type of numbers you would expect from a ten point favorite playing at home. The Chargers defense is allowing 53.3% successful plays defensively on the season, that’s close to Tampa Bay territory. In a high scoring game we will back the better defense catching points. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins v. Bengals -5.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
466 Miami at Cincinnati The Dolphins were exposed by the Patriots on Sunday, and we expect more hard times for the team down south. Despite a 3-1 record Miami has been outscored on the season. The Dolphins have yet to lose the turnover battle. But the telling stat comes from success rates. Miami’s offense produces just 38.5% success, while allowing 47.8%. Last week Miami had just two explosive plays while permitting ten. We want no part of the Dolphins in this price range. Cincinnati has played 3 of 4 games on the road, and have still outscored the opposition by 13 points. The Bengals have yet to lose the sack battle, and have produced a 53.0% offensive success rate. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-06-18 | Nebraska +19 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show |
409 Nebraska at Wyoming Sports betting is much like playing the stock market, buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. Here we have one team that is definitely a buy low candidate, while the other team is about to be exposed. Nebraska is 0-4 SU & ATS on the season and have lost the turnover battle in every FBS game. But the advanced stats show some real positives. First off despite trailing most of the games Nebraska actually has a 12 to 11 sack advantage. The Huskers also own a much higher early down success rate than the opposition, 77.8% to 64.5%. While the offense has been pedestrian with a 36.7% offense play success number, the defense has been excellent allowing just 40.1% successful plays. Keep in mind the teams Nebraska have played are a combined 12-5 straight up on the season. Wisconsin is off a bye, but have the big showdown at Michigan next week. It’s quite possible Paul Chryst spent some time the last two weeks preparing for the Wolverines. The Wisconsin offense has been good as always with a 54.6% offensive play success rate, but despite playing very weak scoring units the Badgers are allowing 41.1% of plays to be successful. The Badgers are 1-3 ATS on the season despite a +4 turnover margin. As for the area in which Wisconsin is normally dominant, the Badgers have only gotten 3 sacks on the season while allowing 7 to the opposition. This line has been bet down from the opener and still remains way too high. One of our two power ratings says this should be an 8 point game. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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10-06-18 | UAB +10 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
379 UAB at Louisiana Tech The Blazers came into the season as a team the wise guys were looking to make some money on. But despite a 2-1 spread mark against FBS competition, the hype has somehow quieted. But we aren’t in that majority as we still believe this Blazers team is underrated. The early season 47-24 loss at Coastal Carolina looked bad on the scoreboard, but the advanced stats show a different story. UAB bettered the opposition in early down success rate and were even in play success percentage. UAB has dominated in the trenches this season with a 13-3 sack advantage. Louisiana Tech just knocked off league favorite North Texas, after playing state big brother very well the week before. This is a major letdown situation for the host. Keep in mind despite the 29-27 win at North Texas, the advanced stats showed a different story. In play success rate the Bulldogs lost 47.2% to 39.4%, and won because of a +2 turnover margin. This game should go down to the wire. PLAY UAB |
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10-06-18 | South Alabama +14 v. Georgia Southern | 13-48 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
313 South Alabama at Georgia Southern Third straight road game for the Jaguars. But this is a major drop down in talent after trips to Oklahoma State, Memphis and Appalachian State. It’s also shutout revenge time for South Alabama who lost at Georgia Southern 52-0 last year in the final game of the regular season. While the Jaguars offense has struggled, the defense has played very well considering the strength of the opposition. Allowing 43.8% of opposing plays to be successful, which is right about league average. In fact, despite the 1-4 record the Jaguars are holding their own in line play as they own 11 sacks while allowing just 10. Georgia Southern has cashed all three FBS games this season, but much of that has to do with a +4 turnover advantage. On the season this team is averaging just 38.9% successful offensive plays. In the trenches it’s a 7 to 7 sack rate. With a 52-0 victory against this club fresh in their minds, and a Thursday night showdown on deck vs Texas State, we can see the Eagles looking past the opposition here. Too many points considering the advanced stats and the situation. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 118 h 46 m | Show |
398 Oklahoma & Texas in Dallas The Red River Rivalry resumes with the undefeated Sooners as the favorite. But we are starting to have real doubts about the validity of this team being national championship contenders. While the offense has been as good if not better than expected, let’s take a look at this stop unit. Oklahoma did well in the opening two games against Florida Atlantic and UCLA. But the last three games Oklahoma has permitted 43.1%, 50.6% and 50.0% successful plays to Iowa State, Army and Baylor. They were an average favorite by just over 23 points in those contests. Texas lost the opener at Maryland but has run off four straight victories since then. Defensively the Longhorns have permitted just 21, 14, 16 and 14 points during that streak. No team has sniffed 40% success offensively in those contests. That included blowout wins over USC and TCU. The last four meetings have resulted in seven point or less margins for the winner. Let’s back the much better defense in the underdog role. PLAY TEXAS |
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10-06-18 | Missouri +1 v. South Carolina | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 42 m | Show |
335 Missouri at South Carolina Nice spot to back the road Tigers here after suffering its first loss of the season, followed by a bye week. It’s the prime combination for coach Barry Odom to have his teams focus. Especially after losing to the Gamecocks each of the last two years. The Tigers lost by 14 to Georgia but had a better offensive play success rate, 49.4% to 42.9%. This is a team that hasn’t been stopped offensively by any opponent this season. While Missouri was resting, South Carolina is off back to back road games at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Against Kentucky the offense only produced 10 points with a lowly 34.8% offensive success rate. That simply won’t get it done against this high scoring Tigers squad. PLAY MISSOURI |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern +11 v. Michigan State | Top | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 70 h 36 m | Show |
373 Northwestern at Michigan State This is too many points to lay in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Last years contest went to triple overtime before the Wildcats prevailed 39-31. Pat Fitzgerald has been simply amazing in Evanston when installed as a road underdog. With the outright win at Purdue earlier the Wildcats are 24-9 ATS catching points on the road the last 10+ seasons. Michigan State was highly thought of coming into the season, but we never really bought into it. And it’s proven out on the field as Michigan State simply hasn’t dominated against weaker opposition. Despite playing Utah State, Arizona State, Indiana and Central Michigan, the Spartans are only up 117-88. That’s as a combined 62 1/2 combined point favorite. The only somewhat dominant performance was last week against a lower division MAC team, and the Spartans failed to cover by 17 points. With a major trip to Penn State on deck we can’t see the Spartans running away with this one. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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09-30-18 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | 12-31 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 50 m | Show | |
261 NY Jets at Jacksonville Extra time to prepare for the Jets who let one slip away Thursday against the Browns. While New York lost that game 21-17 keep in mind it had a -3 turnover disadvantage. So the Jets failed to cover by a single point while turning the ball over three times more than the Browns. New York has outscored the opposition 77-58 despite being -1 in turnover differential and -5 in sacks differential. When looking at successful play percent New York is averaging 47.3% while allowing just 39.7%. Those are some pretty good numbers for a team in this price range. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the season with wins over the Giants and Patriots. Two of the most disappointing teams in the league. The defense has been stout as always but the offense has been a disappointment. The Jets have won 20 games combined the last three seasons, but are a perfect 2-0 against the Jags. Winning last year as a 3 1/2 point underdog in overtime, and in 2015 28-23. Jacksonville has played three disappointing teams this season, the Jets have a better future than any of them. PLAY NY JETS |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 114 h 17 m | Show | |
264 Tampa Bay at Chicago The Bucs continue to put points on the board, but is this team a bit overrated because of that offensive success? Keep in mind Tampa Bay is traveling on a short week after the supposed statement game Monday night against the Steelers. The defense has allowed 91 points to three teams that have not met preseason expectations. The Bucs have permitted an average of 54.3% successful plays, so what the offense produces the defense more than surrenders. The Bears are 2-1 on the season with the lone loss being the opening week fold job against the Packers. The Chicago defense has been nothing but outstanding thus far. Allowing just 18.3 points per game and holding the opposition to just 39% successful plays. Mitch Trubisky is catching a lot of flak, but the teams offense isn’t bad at all. Much better defense gets the cover here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-30-18 | Bengals +5 v. Falcons | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 88 h 9 m | Show | |
255 Cincinnati at Atlanta Really like the way these Bengals have started the season. Cincinnati has won the early down success rate in all three games, 79-54%, 79-68% and 84-74% last week. When looking at play success rate this team has produced 52.7% offensively, while allowing 50.3%. The Falcons are just 12-20 ATS as a home favorite going back to the 2012 season. This home field edge isn’t nearly as big as you were led to believe. Despite playing 2 of 3 games at home this year, the Falcons are permitting 50.7% of opponent plays to be successful, while producing just 47.7%. This is the third straight home game for the Falcons, which usually results in a higher scoring game. That said we prefer the visitor in this matchup better. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern +3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 32 m | Show | |
164 Arkansas State at Georgia Southern The Red Wolves are 2-1 in FBS action this year with the only loss coming at Alabama. Pretty impressive. Or is it? The 29-20 win at Tulsa showed a 44.9-41.5% successful play advantage for the Golden Hurricane. The reason Ark State won was a +2 turnover margin. Even last week in a non-covering 27-20 win over UNLV the Red Wolves needed a +3 turnover margin. Since turnovers are worth roughly 5 points, both of those victories could have and probably should have been loses. This is also the third road game in four weeks for this squad. Georgia Southern had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, coming after a 31 point loss at Clemson. But the Golden Eagles have cashed both games against FBS competition this year, by a combined 20 points. After a disappointing 2-10 season under first year coach Chad Lunsford, this team is primed to get back to its past success. The Eagles had won 5 or more games in each of the previous nine seasons. With an extra week to prepare and having double revenge this game has been circled in Statesboro. GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-29-18 | Coastal Carolina +14 v. Troy | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
197 Coastal Carolina at Troy The Chanticleers have been pretty impressive in the early going with a 2-1 FBS mark. The only loss was at South Carolina, which is a very good team this year. Even in that defeat Coastal Carolina managed a strong 90% early down success rate against that stout defense. Troy’s is a bit overrated right now after back to back road wins at Nebraska and Louisiana Monroe. Despite a 2-1 SU & ATS mark the Trojans have permitted a 48.1% success rate while only producing a 39.9% mark themselves. The team won the turnover margin in both victories. With a short week on deck at it hosts Georgia State on Thursday, we see this as a great spot to fade the Trojans. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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09-29-18 | Kent State +7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -106 | 97 h 23 m | Show |
117 Kent State at Ball State Yes it’s the third straight road game for Kent State, but it’s also the first conference game of the season. The Golden Flashes have been at its best as a road dog with a 13-8 spread mark. Which is pretty impressive considering Kent has a 25-51 straight up record in that time frame. Kent State is already 2-0 ATS when losing the turnover battle, which tells us this team is vastly underrated. Ball State remains winless against FBS competition. A good amount of this line is based on the Cardinals good showing at Notre Dame. But keep in mind that was a major flat spot for the Irish after knocking off Michigan with an SEC opponent on deck. Getting this line in this price range is a bargain. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas +21.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 51 m | Show |
211 Arkansas at Texas A&M We’ve been anti Arkansas and pro Texas A&M all season, and yet we can’t get anywhere near this high a number for this contest. Sports betting is a pendulum where there is a right number for every game. And this one tells us it’s time to back the ugly dog. There was no excuse to lose to a bad Colorado State team, but the Razorbacks had the higher early down success rate in that game 83-71%, as well as the better successful play rate 46.7-41.1%. While losing to North Texas and Auburn is nothing to be ashamed about as those two teams have been bet on squads. A combined -7 turnover margin kept the Razorbacks from cashing in those contests. These teams have met in each of the last nine seasons with the highest spread being 14 points. A&M enters this contest in a tough scheduling spot. Off Alabama and with Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn to come. All very good teams that A&M will have problems with. This is the only game Texas A&M will play all season on artificial turf, as it’s a neutral site game in Arlington. Just too many points to lay here for the Aggies. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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09-29-18 | Temple +13 v. Boston College | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 41 h 42 m | Show | |
127 Temple at Boston College Extra time to prepare for the Owls after beating Tulsa last Thursday. Temple is a nice 13-6 ATS as a road underdog the past 5+ seasons. In three FBS games this team owns a +11 sack ratio, allowing only two sacks during those games. This defense has been outstanding holding the opposition to just 33.1% successful offensive plays. Boston College came into the season with a lot of hype, and started the year 3-0. But last week at Purdue was a wake up call, especially for this offense that only produced 29.3% successful plays. Wins over Massachusetts, Holy Cross and Wake Forest don’t look as impressive now as it did at the time. In a projected to be low scoring game, catching double digits is even more of a bargain. PLAY TEMPLE |
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09-28-18 | UCLA +11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 47 m | Show |
107 UCLA at Colorado Both teams enter this Friday contest off byes last week. UCLA still has not tasted victory with losses to Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State. There is a very real possibility that all three of those teams will be bowling this December. While the UCLA offense is a concern the defense has impressed us. Looking beyond the final scores we see that the Bruins are holding the opposition to just 60% on early down success rate. Just 6 out of ten first downs have been attained on first and second down. That indicates that the defense is much better than what the scoreboard has shown. Despite playing three good football teams, the opposition has only been successful on 45.2% of offensive plays. While that’s higher than league average, it’s much more in line with the early down success rate than the scoreboard. As opposed to the Bruins, Colorado has had an easy schedule of FBS competition. Playing just Colorado State and Nebraska, two teams really struggling out of the gate. Colorado is +2 in turnover advantage, and have lost the sack battle 7 to 5. This is a team that has looked good against inferior competition. The last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4, 10, 4 and 3 points in double overtime. We look for this to be another tight contest. PLAY UCLA |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 67 h 41 m | Show |
102 Minnesota at LA Rams Did the Vikings just sleepwalk through that Buffalo game last week or is there really a problem? Did they look past the Bills in order to prepare for this game? The answer is very likely to both. Through three games the Vikings are a slightly better than average team by play success rates. The team has also allowed a higher early down success rate than their own. The Vikings have allowed six more explosive plays than it produced itself. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers, especially considering that there is a good chance none of the three teams it played will make the postseason. The Rams have been otherworldly which is why we like them so much in this Thursday night affair. Not only do the Rams not have to travel, this is the third straight home game. Minnesota on the other hand has to travel two time zones on a short week. Los Angeles has been dominant no matter how you slice it. While the offense is getting all the credit, the defense has been outstanding. How about allowing 36 total points and an average of just 40.7% successful plays. This is the same system that provided us with the Browns winner last Thursday. Hopefully it won’t need such a comeback. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
484 Chicago at Arizona The betting markets are now showing Chicago getting a whopping 74% of the bets despite this line being bet down. A team off the rare opportunity to win on Monday Night Football, traveling cross country to be a sizable road favorite. Needless to say this team right now is fat and happy. Keep in mind the Bears have been a road favorite just once in the past 4+ seasons. Just three weeks ago the Cardinals were a 2 point home favorite over Washington. That would mean Chicago is laying more than a touchdown more than the Redskins, a team I have equal power rating wise. Teams that have shut down offensively for two straight weeks have been terrific the following game. While Arizona has struggled thus far, this is a great spot for an offensive turnaround. Keep in mind the Bears are just 2-15 straight up on the road the past 2+ seasons. Don’t get caught in this trap. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
473 Oakland at Miami Because of the early season scheduling we are getting the better team here catching the key number of 3. The Raiders are 0-2 but faced the Rams and Broncos, while the 2-0 Dolphins faced the Titans and Jets. Oakland has a -2 turnover disadvantage, while Miami is +2. The Raiders had 50 and 60% successful offensive plays the first two weeks, while allowing just 52 and 45%. Tennessee on the other hand had 57% and 35% successful offensively, but allowed 40 and 52% defensively. So Oakland had the better success numbers despite playing the tougher slate. The Raiders also are in more of a need situation as it likely can’t fall to 0-3 and make the playoffs. The 2-0 Dolphins on the other hand travel to face New England next week in what could be its most important game of the season. Keep in mind under Adam Tase the Dolphins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a home favorite, as Miami consistently underperforms in the home favorite role, just 12-29-2 since 2008. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan v. San Diego State -11.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
412 Eastern Michigan at San Diego State Long travel scenario for the Eagles who haven’t played in the Pacific Time Zone in at least 20 years. The Eagles have 10 time revenge against Northern Illinois on deck, so we don’t know how much preparation this Chris Creighton team has put into this game. Since it’s the third straight road game this club may use this week as a mini vacation in beautiful California. The Aztecs defense has performed well against Stanford and Arizona State out of the PAC 12. Hosting the Cardinal to only 30.6% successful plays and the Sun Devils to just 41.4%. The offense is right around league average despite being underdogs in both those games. With a bye on deck before a big showdown with Boise State, this is a great spot play on the host. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
383 Louisiana Tech at LSU Rare chance for the Bulldogs to play big brother in the state of Louisiana. The last time these two met was in 2009, a 14 1/2 point cover for La Tech. The Bulldogs are off a bye while the Tigers pulled the road upset over rival Auburn. Skip Holtz is a solid 6-2 ATS as a 20 point or more underdog at Louisiana Tech. He’s also 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of any number the past 4+ seasons. His team is also 6-4 ATS vs Power Five Conferences since taking over the Bulldogs in 2013. LSU beat both Miami Florida and Auburn, but had a +4 turnover advantage in those two games. This is obviously a sandwich game for LSU with Mississippi on deck after playing Auburn. The Tigers are now 0-4 ATS as a 20+ favorite in the last year plus under Ed Orgeron. Great spot here to fade the public favorite. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
377 UNLV at Arkansas State Is this the year UNLV finally returns a winning record? It’s first since 2013 and only winning mark in the last decade. We believe it’s a strong possibility as the defense looks much improved. Offensively the offense produced 71.8% successful plays against UTEP, the worst program in the FBS. But it’s still impressive against anyone. Under Tony Sanchez the one positive role has been as road dog with a 12-4 spread mark including the cover earlier at USC. Arkansas State returns home after playing at Alabama and Tulsa. Even with a +2 turnover margin in those games the Red Wolves were outscored 77-36. When measuring successful play percentages this team has produced 32.3% while allowing 56.8%. Obviously Arkansas State wasn’t expected to compete with Alabama, but it took a +2 turnover margin to win at Tulsa. Not sure this Sun Belt squad is good enough to beat what we consider to be at least an average Mountain West Conference team by a margin. PLAY UNLV |
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09-22-18 | Charlotte +7.5 v. UMass | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
315 Charlotte at Massachusetts After a 1-11 season a year ago we like what Brad Lambert and his squad have done this season in Charlotte. In its short history in the FBS this program has won just one less game on the road than at Jerry Richardson Stadium. So we get the team in the preferred road underdog role against a team without much of a home field advantage. Massachusetts hasn’t won more than two home games in any season since 2010. Under Mark Whipple the Minutemen have been favorites just 11 times in four plus seasons. UMass returns home off a very rare three game road trip, losing at Boston College, Georgia Southern and FIU. Defensively this is one of if not the worst defense in the nation. The opposition has produced 63.6, 55.4 and 69.1% successful plays against the Minutemen. While Charlotte doesn’t have an explosive offense, they can move the ball at will against this squad. Tough to lay over a touchdown when you can’t stop anyone. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
344 Notre Dame at Wake Forest What has happened to this Irish offense? Last year it averaged 34.2 points per game. This season it has scored 24, 24 and 22 points. More telling is the lack of success in offensive plays. Just 33.3, 41.7 and 44.6% of plays have been successful. Tough to lay points in the road favorite role with an offense that is struggling. Wake Forest has faced two FBS squads and put up better success percentage numbers than both Tulane and Boston College. Keep in mind the Demon Deacons are at a -3 turnover disadvantage in those games. Under Dave Clawson Wake has been a very good home underdog and this is the third straight home game for the Deacs. No way the Irish remain in the Top 10 after this week. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show | |
302 NY Jets at Cleveland The Jets took advantage of a tell from Matt Stafford in the opener and won big on Monday Night Football. Then on a short week had to host a division rival and didn’t have the same success against the Dolphins. Now on another short week the team travels to Cleveland. The Browns remain winless but managed to cover both games, against far tougher opponents than the Jets have faced. To hold the Steelers and Saints to 21 points each in a total of nine quarters is impressive. The short week will expose the Jets rookie QB, as no additional plays will be able to be added to the playbook. This gives the Cleveland defense plenty of chances to force turnovers, which it has in abundance the first two games. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-16-18 | Lions +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
281 Detroit at San Francisco Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +6 v. Falcons | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
263 Carolina at Atlanta The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years. Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins +3 v. Jets | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
273 Miami at NY Jets Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team. The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland. PLAY MIAMI |
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09-16-18 | Vikings -2 v. Packers | 29-29 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
265 Minnesota at Green Bay We mentioned last week that we expected the Vikings to be the best team in the league this year, and it got off to a great start hosting the 49ers. The Vikings have won 4 of 5 as of late against the Packers, holding them to 0, 10, 14 and 13 points in those victories. This line is set as if a healthy Aaron Rodgers would line up behind center. But that’s not guaranteed, so this line has no where to go but up for the Vikings. Even if he plays the Packers didn’t show much Monday Night when the Bears weren’t trying to run out the clock. The Pack only has 39% successful offensive plays while allowing 45% to the Bears. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-15-18 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -14 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
158 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois We expected the Chippewas to be down a year ago and the team posted an 8-5 record. I guess we were a year too soon as this team has looked terrible in the early going. Central lost at Kentucky by 15 in the opener, but it owned a +4 turnover margin. A 2 point cover with a +4 TO margin is not very impressive. Central Then hosted Kansas, a team that had lost over 40 straight times on the road. Not since 2009 had the Jayhawks tasted victory on the road. We Kansas not only won, but blew out the Chippewas 31-7. Northern Illinois faced Iowa and Utah to open the season, two of the best defensive teams in the country. Despite double digit losses to both squads, the Huskies looked better than the final scores. When looking at productive plays Northern Illinois produced just 34.4% but allowed only 35.2%. A much better showing than what the final scores indicated. After facing those two tough defenses, we expect this Huskies offense to have a much easier time. After losing to the Chippewas the past four years, you know this team has had this game circled. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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09-15-18 | Kent State +35.5 v. Penn State | Top | 10-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
119 Kent State at Penn State We’ve been very impressed by the job first year coach Sean Lewis has done in Kent. Outplaying Illinois on the road most of the game and clobbering FCS opponent Howard. The same Howard team that beat UNLV straight up on the road in last years opener. This along with Hawaii are likely to be the two most improved programs in college football. Penn State is a step down from the previous two seasons. This team lost a lot of talent to the NFL. State had to go to overtime to beat a pretty good Appalachian State team, and couldn’t put away the Pitt Panthers until the second half. Conference season starts early as the team travels to Illinois to play the Illini on Friday. We expect the Nittany Lions to go through the motions here on a short week. Keep in mind after the Illini game Penn State hosts power Ohio State. The Lions are 4-6 ATS laying 20 or more under James Franklin. The Golden Flashes have the talent to keep this one relatively close. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-15-18 | Troy +10.5 v. Nebraska | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
129 Troy at Nebraska Under Neal Brown the Troy Trojans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The last three seasons Troy has gone to Boise State, LSU, Clemson, Mississippi State and Wisconsin. Covering every single game including beating LSU outright and losing at Clemson by just 6 points in the Tigers championship year. This is a team you can trust when stepping up in class. Scott Frost and his squad have played just once after weather cancelled the opener against Akron. In that contest Colorado beat the Cornhuskers outright in Lincoln. In that game the starting quarterback was injured and a walk on had to play. The two original backups left the program after the starting quarterback announcement. Now the Huskers hope the starter last week returns, but if he does he will be extremely hampered. PLAY TROY |
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09-12-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
915 Houston at Detroit Cole & Norris Run Line Play Huge advantages across the board here for the Astros. Starting pitching is a 35% advantage, a 31% bullpen edge and an 18% hitting advantage. The Astros hit left-handed starters on the road 18% better than league average. Daniel Norris continues his trek to return from injury. It hasn’t been a productive return as the last two years have seen his ERA in the 5.40 range. Just too many good hitters in this Astros lineup. PLAY HOUSTON -1 1/2 RUNS |
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09-09-18 | Bills v. Ravens -5.5 | Top | 3-47 | Win | 100 | 913 h 25 m | Show |
460 Buffalo at Baltimore Let’s get this one out early as we see this number rising by game time. Baltimore has traditionally looked good in preseason as John Harbaugh is 26-13-1 ATS with the Ravens. Word is that Flacco has really been focused now with Baltimore taking Jackson in the first round. He was really good before his big contract, and seemed to rest on his laurels after getting the big money. The threat of losing his job has brought out the best in him. The Ravens brought in some talented receivers to open up the offense, something that has been a real sore spot on this team as of late. With a strong defensive team we look for the Ravens to be in contention all season. The Bills have brought in a new offensive coordinator after a nine win season a year ago. But while this team really sold out to make the playoffs last season, the advanced numbers say this club didn’t deserve the winning record. Last year Buffalo faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and still struggled offensively. This team was fortunate with a +9 turnover margin. Now the Bills have a new quarterback. Taylor had been one of the best signal callers in the league when it comes to taking care of the football. Now the team will have someone behind center who has never been considered an NFL starter. The offensive line which was fifth in the league in positional spending a year ago, is now 29th this season. The win totals have steadily gone down on this team as money has poured in on the under. We expect this line to continue to go up by game day. Let’s get ahead of this one. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 691 h 7 m | Show | |
456 San Francisco at Minnesota No team enters the season with more hype than the San Francisco 49ers. After winning just two games in 2017 this team jumped up to six wins a year ago. After starting the season poorly the brass traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is history. The offense ranked 30th in salary a year ago and now ranks 2nd, with most of that money going to Jimmy G. While it’s nice to know your team is willing to spend money, the Niners gave sizable raises to questionable players. The defense will remain a concern as our numbers show this team to be quite weak when not having the ball. The club had a sack margin of -13 last season and we don’t see how that has been addressed. The offense is solid but the defense will hold this team back. Minnesota in our opinion is the most complete team in the NFC, including the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. In back to back years the Vikings lost its starting quarterback before the regular season and still won 21 total games. Kirk Cousins took a great deal of flack in Washington, but keep in mind his offensive lines there were terrible. Injuries kept Cousins from having the success he can have here in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that no NFL QB faced a tougher schedule of pass defenses the past two years, and you see how enamored we are able this signing. Even with an early major injury in camp this Vikings offensive line is much better than what he played with in Washington. We expect this line rise so let’s get this one up early. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-08-18 | Maryland v. Bowling Green +16 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
362 Maryland at Bowling Green The Terrapins shocked the Longhorns of Texas again last week for the second time in two years. Maryland won as a 12 point underdog. The team was helped along in that game with a +3 turnover advantage. This is a program that was a road favorite just once last season, a 31-24 loss at Rutgers. Only once in the last three years has Maryland won by more than this spread away from home. Bowling Green held tough at Oregon last week. In fact, the Ducks played starters well into the second half of that game. BG had a solid 71% early down success rate against a team in a power five conference. This club has enough offense to take on Maryland head to head here with a chance to pull off the upset. Off a 2-10 season without a home victory, the Falcons will be primed for this Big 10 visitor. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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09-08-18 | North Carolina -16.5 v. East Carolina | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
341 North Carolina at East Carolina Despite the 24-17 loss last week at California, we were impressed by this Tar Heels squad. NC lost the turnover battle by 4 and won the sack count 4-0. This team travelled cross country with many suspensions and played the Bears evenly. Larry Fedora will have his club’s attention this week as the last time these two met in 2014 East Carolina put up 70 points on these Tar Heels. East Carolina was 3-9 each of the last two seasons, and if the opener against North Carolina A&T is any indication, this team won’t taste many wins. Last year the Pirates were outscored by 20.1 points per game. Overall 6 of its 12 games resulted in opponents scoring 50 points or more. The Pirates are 6-13 ATS at home the past three seasons. This team has one of the lowest home field advantages in college football. North Carolina wins this one going away. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-08-18 | Buffalo v. Temple -4 | Top | 36-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
346 Buffalo at Temple This is the only game on grass for the Bulls this season. Buffalo has an excellent quarterback and many feel this team is in for a big season. Coming off an impressive showing against Delaware State, the Bulls are a popular choice by the masses this week. But we don’t buy in to the Bulls nearly as much as others. In fact, this number should be much higher in our opinion. Temple struggled last week against Villanova. But many people are unaware that the team was having headset problems in the first half. The quarterback had to make the play calls because the OC wasn’t able to get his plays relayed from the press box in the first half. After that was corrected the team played much better in the second half. PLAT TEMPLE |
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09-08-18 | Western Michigan +28 v. Michigan | Top | 3-49 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
309 Western Michigan at Michigan The last five seasons the Broncos are 8-4 ATS when stepping up against power five teams. That includes a half point spread loss to Purdue in 2014. Out of those 12 games Western has yet to lose by more than the current spread on this contest. The Broncos are also 14-6 ATS as a road dog the past five seasons. Michigan is looking to rebound off a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame. The Wolverines failed to surpass 36 points in any game last year, and despite the optimism we doubt that number can be reached here. Therefore we have a team that’s not likely to score much more than the current line in this contest. Easy call on the dog here, as it’s much more important for the directional state school. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | Top | 41-59 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
215 Navy at Hawaii The midshipmen are coming off a down 7-6 season, their worst record since 2011. While only nine starters return, that’s a regular occurrence with the military teams. After losing 6 of 7 to end the season, Ken Niumatalolo and company should rebound nicely. Hawaii off a 3-9 season shocked Colorado State in the opener. But we believe most of that had to do with the Rams head coach not being healthy enough to coach the practices. Keep in mind that Hawaii last year was outscored by 11.1 ppg, and had lost 9 of 10 to end the season. The Warriors permitted 5.3 ypr each of the last two seasons. We see the Navy running game wearing out this very questionable Hawaii defense. Hawaii is 4-15-1 ATS at home the past three seasons. This home field advantage is very low. PLAY NAVY |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
144 Syracuse at Western Michigan The Orange had 15 and 18 returning starters the last two seasons and managed to win just four games each year. The team brings back 14 starters this season. While the team will have veterans, keep in mind the Orangemen haven’t posted a winning record since 2013. In the past three seasons Syracuse has a combined two wins away from home. Western Michigan went 13-1 two years ago and fell to 6-6 last year under Tim Lester. The Broncos know this Syracuse squad very well as not only the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinators recently coached at Syracuse. Just two years ago Lester was the quarterback coach for Orangemen signal caller Eric Dungey. Here we get a home team that is 17-6 in Waldo Stadium the past four seasons, that knows the opposition better than anyone. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
966 Los Angeles at Houston Heaney & Verlander Major starter edge for Verlander as we rate him 31% higher than Heaney. The Angels starter has hit a wall as of late as his innings count is much higher than the two previous injury prone years. The Astros bullpen also dominates with the same 31% advantage. And the host has a 12% hitting edge. Instead of laying the high price on the money line we feel very confident the Astros win this one going away. PLAY HOUSTON -1 1/2 |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6.5 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 41 m | Show | |
139 Wake Forest at Tulane The Demon Deacons long known as a defensive football team, really broke out offensively last year. Going from 20.4 ppg to 35.3 last season. The Deacons need to replace its starting QB and its second returning receiver who is out with injury. Other than that this team returns mostly intact offensively. Tulane is coming off a 5-7 season under Willie Fritz. 12 starters return including starting QB Jonathan Banks. The team averaged 27.5 ppg a year ago but the offensive line which returned five starters last year must be rebuilt. We also have concerns about a secondary that lost an NFL draft choice. Our numbers say the Demon Deacons win this game by double digits, as the Wake stop unit is the best unit on the field. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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08-04-18 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
972 Kansas City at Minnesota Smith & Berrios Burch Smith is one of the worst starting pitchers in our database. He rates as 35% worse than an average Major League pitcher. The Kansas City bullpen traded away its two most reliable arms at the trade deadline. Yesterday the Royals bullpen threw 101 total pitches. That likely means the Smith will be taking one for the team today. He has a 6.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his career. Berrios has been lights out at home the past two years. This season he is 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Last year he was 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He is coming off a poor start in which he went 4.2 innings allowing 3 earned runs and nine hits. Even though the line in this game is high, it’s still a bargain. But we are going to lay the 1 1/2 runs here as we really expect these Twin bats to pound Burch Smith. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE |
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05-24-18 | Warriors +1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
507 Golden State at Houston Rare opportunity to get the clearly best team in the league without laying points. The Warriors were a short handed bunch last time out and the physical nature of the game seemed to wear on them down the stretch. Keep in mind the mental focus of this team after blowing away the Rockets in the previous game. Golden State was fat and happy and began to read its press clippings. While the Rockets played all out with its back to the wall. Now that Golden State is focused we see the Warriors coming out of Texas with the series lead. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
705 Boston at Cleveland So Cleveland is favored by 6 1/2 at home in game three after losing by double digits twice in Boston. Now the line is higher after the Cavs blow out the Celtics by 30 in the previous game? That’s not how sports betting works, especially this far into the playoffs where all four teams are among the leagues elite. Boston has the best coach remaining in the playoffs, which really says something with the Rockets and Warriors included, two elite coaches indeed. The Celtics have been terrific all season off a loss, off a double digit loss and off a blowout loss. History says the same thing when it comes to playoff basketball. Simply, the team that gets embarrassed comes out and covers the spread the next game. It happed last night in Oakland and it will do the same tonight in Cleveland. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -5 | Top | 93-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
504 Toronto at Cleveland Give the Raptors all the credit in the world for that comeback last time out. But that last basket by LeBron has to have taken out all the will from this team. Keep in mind LeBron James is on a 27-1 SU run against the Raptors at home. That’s been against some very good Toronto teams the last few years. Now the Raptors need to win four straight including two wins in Cleveland. It’s just not going to happen and the visiting knows it. Cleveland on the other hand wants to finish as soon as possible in order to get a bit of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals. James led the league in minutes this season, so you know the Cavs will do everything in its power to close this one out tonight. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
511 Cleveland at Toronto In game one Toronto was well rested and Cleveland was coming off a grueling seven game series with Indiana. The Raptors were favored by 7 in that contest and Cleveland won it in overtime. Now the line is virtually the same despite both teams having equal rest. Toronto has really struggled against the Cavs in the postseason and we unable to distance themselves in game one. Why would anyone think something different is going to happen here? The Cavs match up well with Toronto and when Thompson is in the game the inside edge the Raptors have is negated. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
709 New Orleans at Golden State The rich get richer as Steph Curry returns to the Warriors lineup tonight. But does that make them a better team? Of course it does if he is in prime shape and gets his full allotment of minutes. But keep in mind it has been a long time since he has competed on the highest level, and the Warrior coaching staff will be looking to gradually increase his minutes. If would be devastating to this team to lose him again right before the likely occurrence of a Houston/Golden State showdown. Therefore we expect his minutes to be lessoned and his success being down from what we normally would witness. The line in the previous game was roughly 2 1/2 points lower than we find here. The Warriors pounded the Pelicans rather easily. But we expect a major effort out of the dog tonight, and the Curry return gives us extra points to play with. In successful sports betting you buy low and sell high, that’s exactly the situation we take advantage of tonight. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
706 Indiana at Cleveland Originally from Cleveland we have watched virtually every Cavaliers game since LeBron was a rookie. We know his tendencies, his body language and when he’s coming to play or likely not to play well. This here is a LeBron game. Elite players off an embarrassing performance rebound well the next game. Teams losing by 30 or more points are 5-0 ATS the following game as a favorite. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-22-18 | Warriors -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
503 Golden State at San Antonio What was once a very promising season for the Spurs has really turned into a complete waste of a year. The team and its best player are at a standstill, as Leonard continues to sit when the team needs him most. Now San Antonio sits at 0-3 in this series and has to beat the defending champs four straight in order to advance. Because of the yearly high expectations for the Spurs we can’t see San Antonio getting overly excited to have to travel back to Oakland after a victory here. Fading 0-3 teams has been very profitable, doing so against a veteran team with higher expectations is a given. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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04-18-18 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
517 Indiana at Cleveland The Pacers have played the Cavaliers as well as anyone this year, and have a good chance to win this series outright. Being from Cleveland we watch every Cavaliers game and Cleveland has severe problems in this series. There was no doubt Indiana was the better team in the opener, and Cleveland still has a major weakness inside. The Pacers are the quicker team and the Cavs have struggled against youth all season. This line is built on reputation and not on the actual skills of the players. PLAY INDIANA |
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04-16-18 | Marlins v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
924 Miami at NY Yankees Smith & Severino While Caleb Smith is ranked better than many think he has his hands full on the road today in New York. He’s 24% worse than Severino and the Miami bullpen is 26% worse. Offensively the Marlins are 22% worse and Miami can’t compare in power with the Yankees. We expect this to be a non-competitive game so we have no problems laying the 1 1/2 runs here with the host. PLAY NY YANKEES RUN LINE |
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04-04-18 | Heat -8 v. Hawks | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
507 Miami at Atlanta Hawks are in full tank mode while the Heat are looking to keep up in the playoff race. A majority of tickets have come in on the host, yet the line hasn’t moved. As we right this some of the sharper books are leaning toward a higher number. Let’s back the Heat here as the Hawks play dead once again. PLAY MIAMI |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
812 Loyola Chicago & Michigan Heard some quotes from other coaches who made the final four as surprise teams. They all said that the situation is totally different from anything these teams have seen in the past. Because of all the hoopla all the timing of a regular season game goes out the window. Not enough time for a normal shoot around, in and out of the locker room in less time than normal, stadium views as opposed to regular 20,000 seat or less dimensions. Loyola will be going through that for the first time today, while the other three teams have been through it before. On the court Michigan has the athletes to really give the Ramblers trouble. This will be the first time in the tournament in which Loyola will be at a defensive disadvantage. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-30-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
517 LA Clippers at Portland The road team has won outright all three meetings this season. The Clippers enter this game with double home loss revenge, but the defense is playing much better than the last time these two met two weeks ago. LA isn’t the most talented team in the league but you always seem to get a quality contest from this club. Portland has been all the rage for those looking to play on the hot team. The Blazers have won 17 of 21 games entering tonight. But we went against this team last time out with Memphis and Portland was beaten outright. We look to go against the overrated Blazers again tonight. PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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03-29-18 | Bulls v. Heat -13 | Top | 92-103 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
704 Chicago at Miami The Bulls are in full tank zone after losing its sixth straight game, a 32 point defeat at Houston. Our clients took advantage of Chicago in that contest and we go right back to the well here. This is the first of a back to back for the Bulls, as it plays in Orlando tomorrow. A far easier team to beat than this Heat squad who is fighting for the playoffs. Miami is on a 10-6 straight up run including victories over Philadelphia twice, Washington and Cleveland. The Heat are well rested having not played a back to back game since March sixth. Miami is also off tomorrow before facing Brooklyn, Atlanta twice and New York. This is the time for the Heat to pad its resume. PLAY MIAMI |
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03-28-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies +6 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
510 Portland at Memphis This one should be simple right? The Blazers enter this game having won 15 of 17, while the Grizzlies have lost 23 of 25. Unfortunately NBA handicapping is not that easy. This is the first of two meetings with Memphis in the next three games. The Blazers are playing back to back on the road after a 107-103 win in New Orleans yesterday. It’s also the third game in four days for Portland, all on the road. In the last 12 days the Grizzlies have been very competitive except the 140-79 embarrassment at Charlotte. Only two losses by double digits and two victories as well. Memphis has split the first two meetings in this series, and has had a very relaxing schedule of 8 of 9 games playing with rest. We expect this game to come down to the wire. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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03-27-18 | Bulls v. Rockets -13.5 | Top | 86-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
768 Chicago at Houston Rockets had yesterday off after back to back blowouts of Atlanta and New Orleans. Houston plays again on Friday against Phoenix but has the next two days off. The Beard is out tonight which has driven the line down. But the numbers show that with Paul on the floor without him the team is only one point worse this season. Therefore the 3 1/2 point move is simply too much. Granted, against a good team it would make much more of a difference, but tonight the Rockets play the tanking Bulls. Chicago has lost four straight games by double digits, but three of those teams aren’t going to the playoffs. Houston has the best record in the league. We expect the Rockets to run up the score going deep on the bench for late game production. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
721 Duke & Kansas The Blue Devils have been the best team in the country since going to a zone defense midway through the season. Duke has now held 12 straight teams to under 75 points. Duke allows just 46.2% effective field goals on the season. This team always recruits deadly shooters, and now with the team buying into the defensive end this team is extremely tough to beat. Kansas has won 11 of 12 heading into this contest, with the lone loss coming against Oklahoma State. But Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson has been one of the easiest roads in the tourney. We expect this line to climb, therefore lets lock in this number now on what we consider the clearly better team. PLAY DUKE |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
719 Texas Tech & Villanova Sharp books are trending toward the underdog here and we fully agree. Tech has one of the best effective field goal defenses in the country at 46.7%, and Villanova has been shooting unworldly in the tournament as of late. Since the Big 12 Tournament nobody has surpassed 69 points on this team. Villanova was able to shoot over the West Virginia press, but we can’t expect those type of numbers again here. This line is just too high. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-24-18 | Florida State +4 v. Michigan | Top | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
515 Florida State & Michigan Smart money is on the Seminoles as the sharper books are lowering the number. We fully agree with that assessment. We only have these teams ranked 16 places apart in our power ratings, not nearly the difference to have a line this high. Florida State has played the better defense and faced a tougher schedule of Missouri, Xavier and Gonzaga. Michigan is coming off a blowout win over Texas A&M where the team just couldn’t miss from the field. That result has pushed this line up at least two points from where it deserves to be. Another reason for the inflated line is that the Wolverines are on a 12 game winning streak. Handicapping 101 tells you that you lose value on a streaking team as others blindly play on a hot squad. Right now 71% of the bets have come in on the favorite, yet the line is dropping. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
813 Kansas State & Kentucky Many will overlook K State here based on facing Creighton and Maryland Baltimore County in the first two rounds. But this defense has been very good as of late with only Kansas and Oklahoma surpassing 67 points over the past five weeks. Kentucky enters this game having won 9 of 10 with the only loss coming at Florida. These Wildcats are peaking at tourney time which is a staple of this program. But wins over Davidson and Buffalo haven’t changed our minds on this squad. Kentucky has underperformed all year as opposed to prior editions, and we can’t see this team being a contender. With what is considered an easy slate to the final four we can see these young players buying into all the hype, taking these fellows Wildcats for granted. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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03-18-18 | Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
720 Florida State & Xavier The Seminoles have staggered into the tournament having lost 6 of 11 games including the opening round win over Missouri. Three of those losses were to teams who didn’t make the Big Dance. Xavier only lost five games on the season, all to teams making the Big Dance. That includes two losses to Villanova and Providence. Better team with a cheap line. PLAY XAVIER |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
538 Buffalo and Kentucky As much as we like the Bulls, and we had them in the opening round, the price is too cheap not to take the Wildcats here. The MAC has been terrible in the postseason whether it’s football or basketball. The teams just don’t match up to higher athletic teams. While Arizona struggled down the stretch of the season, the Wildcats are peaking at the right time. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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03-16-18 | Georgia State +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
881 Georgia State and Cincinnati The Panthers are a tough matchup for the Bearcats with their excellent zone defense. Georgia State allows an effective field goal percentage of 47.1%. Cincinnati struggles offensively when facing a zone. The Bearcats just played three games in three days with every contest being decided by 10 points or less. In 3 of the last 4 contests Cincinnati scored 62 points or less. Tough to lay this type of number in what is expected to be a low scoring contest. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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03-16-18 | CS-Fullerton v. Purdue -20.5 | 48-74 | Win | 100 | 96 h 6 m | Show | |
874 CS Fullerton and Purdue The Titans major problem here is that it can’t defend from behind the arc, which is what Purdue does best offensively. This team posted a solid 20-11 record but only outscored the opposition by a single point a game. Because of the Big 10 playing its tournament early at Madison Square Garden, Purdue will have 11 days off before this contest. Will the team be rusty or refreshed? We feel the extra rest will be a benefit after playing in the physical Big 10 conference. Purdue had a 15.5 scoring advantage on the season and had no problem running up scores in non-conference action. PLAY PURDUE |
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03-14-18 | UL-Lafayette +3.5 v. LSU | 76-84 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
615 UL Lafayette at LSU Rare opportunity for an in-state school to face the big boys in a tournament contest. With LSU having a disappointing season, we can see a good amount of this crowd cheering for the Rain Cajuns. Lafayette is 27-6 on the season and have a 4.2% effective field goal edge on the year. The Tigers lost to five teams who didn’t make the tournament. We can see this coming down to the final possession with he visitor cashing the ticket. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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03-13-18 | Long Island +6 v. Radford | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
543 LIU Brooklyn and Radford The Blackbirds of Brooklyn enter the dance with just an 18-16 record. But it ended the season and the conference tourney by winning 12 of 17. Only one of the losses was by double digits, so even in defeat this team was competitive. The Radford Highlanders have the better 22-12 record but the team actually allows a higher effective field percentage than it generates itself, 49.5% to 49.4%. Brooklyn on the other hand has a 52.3% to 50% advantage. Radford doesn’t deserve to be this type of favorite tonight. PLAY LIU BROOKLYN |
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03-10-18 | Toledo v. Buffalo -6.5 | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
538 Toledo and Buffalo The Bulls are on a terrific run right now establishing themselves as the clear best team in this conference. Can’t see any way to go against this club right now, especially knowing Toledo’s best player will likely miss this contest. Even if Fletcher goes for the Rockets, he will be severely hampered. Something the run and gun Bulls can exploit. PLAY BUFFALO |
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03-08-18 | Celtics -2 v. Wolves | Top | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
655 Boston at Minnesota Now that the Celtics offense is coming around we have no problem backing this terrific defense in a likely win and cover situation. The Celts have been a money making machine with this young head coach in road games. Not only this year but in prior seasons. You always get a full effort from Boston on the road. While Minnesota is an up and coming team, we are not convinced this team can step up in class and beat a quality opponent. The number is well within our strike zone on the Celtics tonight. PLAY BOSTON |
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03-07-18 | Notre Dame -2 v. Virginia Tech | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
579 Notre Dame and Virginia Tech The Irish seemed to have sleepwalked through its game against the lowly Pitt Panthers yesterday. While it could be forgiven, this team just doesn’t have the justification to take anyone for granted. Because of lackluster play and injuries to key players, this team needs at least one more win to make the big dance. The Irish are the better team here and will look to avenge an earlier home loss to the Hokies. VT is already set for the tournament while Notre Dame needs this one. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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03-07-18 | Air Force +9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
591 Air Force at UNLV The Falcons have played much better ball as of late and this is always a tough team to beat this time of season. UNLV has been a major disappointment and despite playing at home we can’t see this team winning by a margin. Throw in the fact that this is an early start on a weekday, coupled with apathy from the home fans, and there will be little to no home court advantage. AIR FORCE |
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03-06-18 | South Dakota -1 v. South Dakota State | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
537 South Dakota and South Dakota State The Coyotes of South Dakota split the season series, winning 87-68 at home and losing 76-72 away. That road loss is the only game in the last nine games in which the Coyotes failed to win. That defeat came two weeks ago so the loss is fresh in the players minds. Our stats say this team is three points better on the road, and has the much better defensive efficiency numbers. With the line stating the winner covers we will back the Coyotes here. PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA |
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03-05-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -11 | Top | 98-100 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
710 Memphis at San Antonio The Spurs are 4-13 SU against top 10 teams, They are 11-20 against top 16 opponents. But San Antonio has been at its best against the lesser teams in the league. Now 26-7 against the bottom half of the league. Coming into this contest having won just once over the past seven games, you know Pop will have his team prepared. Memphis is in full tank mode right now having lost 13 straight. Pau Gasol is expected to miss tonights contest. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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03-04-18 | Michigan +3.5 v. Purdue | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
837 Michigan and Purdue Like last year the Wolverines are peaking at the right time of year. Winners of eight straight games and off an impressive win over instate rival Michigan State. Michigan has double revenge against the Boilermakers after losses by one and four points. Purdue has won five straight but it did so against the weaker teams in the conference. Penn State twice, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers. Before that Purdue had lost three straight. This team peaked early in the season while Michigan is peaking now. Wrong team favored. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-02-18 | Warriors v. Hawks +13 | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
806 Golden State at Atlanta The Warriors are likely to go through the motions tonight against Atlanta and Tuesday at home against Brooklyn. After the All-Star break where the Warriors key players didn’t get any rest, the team went to Los Angeles, Oklahoma City, New York and Washington. Now it takes on two of the weakest teams in the league before facing San Antonio, Portland and Minnesota. Atlanta hasn’t been good this year to say the least, but Golden State has been a poor road favorite against this type of opponent. The Hawks are 4-12 SU against the top ten teams, so it has proven itself in the past when stepping up in class. PLAY ATLANTA |
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02-28-18 | Pelicans +5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
713 New Orleans at San Antonio The Pelicans enter this game having won six straight as Anthony Davis has played out of his mind as of late. What a difference a healthy Brow has made to this team. New Orleans beat San Antonio earlier in the season 107-90 at home. This is a confident bunch playing against a struggling Spurs squad. Despite the upset win in Cleveland the last time out, the Spurs have dropped 6 of 8 as of late. The only other victory came against the tanking Suns. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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02-28-18 | Fairleigh Dickinson +9 v. St Francis PA | 84-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
773 Fairleigh Dickinson at St Francis PA The Knights have played much better as of late winning 7 of 11. Two of those losses came to this St Francis squad. The Knights own a better effective field goal defense in this matchup along with recent double revenge as both losses came in the last four weeks. The Red Flash enter this game fat and happy winning five straight games entering this tournament. This is a major flat spot for St Francis having to win by double digits to cash. PLAY FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON |
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02-27-18 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State -1.5 | 76-54 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
524 Tennessee at Mississippi State Must win game for the host who has been very good this season but needs a quality win to likely go dancing. The negative advantage of senior night isn’t a concern as this team simply has no seniors. This is a team that is 18-1 SU at home this season, and is favored over a ranked Tennessee team. Tennessee has lost 2 of 3 away with the only win coming at Mississippi, a team in total disarray right now. PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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02-24-18 | Portland v. Pepperdine -2.5 | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
658 Portland at Pepperdine This is the last game for coach Wilson at Pepperdine, as he will be forced out at the end of the season. The Waves have cashed three straight after the announcement, all against the leagues elite. Now dropping down in class we will lay the points against a Portland team that has dropped five straight games, including three straight at home coming into this contest. It’s payback time for the host after a nine point loss up in Portland. PLAY PEPPERDINE |
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02-21-18 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
716 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State The Red Raiders just had a seven game winning streak broken at Baylor 59-57 in a tightly contested contest. Tech already beat Oklahoma State at home 75-70 and have Kansas on deck at home on Saturday. The Jayhawks have revenge on its mind from a 85-73 home loss earlier this year. So this is a tough spot here for the visitor. Oklahoma State has lost two straight and six of eight overall. It is coming off a 20 point loss at TCU, tied for its largest margin of defeat on the season. We back the home dog here. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-18-18 | Canisius v. Rider -3 | 82-83 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
874 Canisius at Rider The Golden Griffins are 13-2 in conference and have won six straight heading into this contest. But this is the third game in seven days and have Niagara home loss revenge on deck. Rider also sits at 13-2 in the league and enter this affair on a nine game winning streak. This is only the second game for the Broncs in eight days. The last time these two met Canisius survived 77-76 back in December. We like the situation here and the line is a bit short with the host. PLAY RIDER |
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02-17-18 | Auburn v. South Carolina +6.5 | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
540 Auburn at South Carolina At 23-3 the Tigers are now in line to be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. This team is 11-2 in conference and just beat a team in Kentucky that has owned them over the years. On deck we have a home game against Alabama, not only the biggest rival of this team, but the Tigers are in revenge from a 76-71 loss on the road. South Carolina was fantastic last year but sits at 13-13 this season. The Gamecocks have lost six straight heading into this contest. Nobody wants anything to do with this team right now which is exactly why we find value on the host. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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02-15-18 | Lakers v. Wolves -10 | 111-119 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
504 LA Lakers at Minnesota Really tough spot here for the Lakers who are playing the second game of a back to back right before the All-Star break. Throw in the fact that this team is also trying to get newcomer Isiah Thomas into the flow and it gets worse. Especially after Thomas and Rondo were thrown out of the game earlier in the week in the opening quarter. This is a young team that may be more interested in the break than this road contest in Minnesota. The T-Wolves are a legit playoff team that has added veteran leadership this season. Minnesota will be less likely to take this game off with a bright second half future. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-15-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
530 Ohio State at Penn State Buckeyes cruising along in the Big 10 with a 13-1 record with the only home loss coming to these Nittany Lions. But before we jump on the visitor here keep in mind it plays hated rival Michigan on deck. Penn State is 8-6 in conference but has won 5 of 6 as of late with the only loss coming at Michigan State. The last time the Nittany Lions faced Ohio State was off back to back losses to Minnesota and Northwestern. Now this team is in much better form. PLAY PENN STATE |
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02-14-18 | Clippers +5 v. Celtics | 129-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
715 LA Clippers at Boston Just three weeks ago the Clippers lost at home to Boston 113-102. Since that time LA has won 6 of 8 games, including 4 of 5 on the road. Boston is struggling right now losing 3 of 4, including back to back losses at home. The Celtics don’t have a lot of offensive talent, and the Clippers are playing excellent defense as of late. This line is simply too high based on recent play along with the Clips revenge angle. PLAY LA CLIPPERS |
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02-13-18 | Cavs v. Thunder -2 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
508 Cleveland at Oklahoma City Don’t look now but all of a sudden all is right in Cleveland. Before the trade deadline Cleveland was +140 to win the Eastern Conference, now after exactly one game with the new players the Cavs are -110. All the talking heads are convinced Cleveland is now the clear team to beat in the East. Based on one game. We have to admit that surely was an impressive contest, but isn’t that a major stretch based on one game? Keep in mind Boston had lost two of three before that game, including an outright loss to Indiana at home. This is the third straight road game for the Cavs, and they are 5-18 ATS the last two years on the road vs the Western Conference. The last time Cleveland played Oklahoma City the Thunder scored 148 points. Look for Cleveland to struggle a bit tonight. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
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02-11-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech +8 | 80-69 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
836 Duke at Georgia Tech Off back to back road losses to St Johns and North Carolina, many will expect a bounce back game for the Blue Devils. But we don’t feel that way. Duke has dropped 3 of its last 4 games outright and haven’t impressed us on the road all year. This is a team that has dropped 4 of 8 true road games this season. Georgia Tech is having a poor season at 11-13 and just 4-7 in league play. It has dropped 6 of 7 heading into this contest. Other than a road game at Virginia, this is the only contest in which the Yellow Jackets can make a name for itself before the regular season ends. And you know it has a huge chip on its shoulder after losing to Duke last year by a whopping 53 points! You know this team has had this game circled, and the Blue Devils have proven themselves to be a beatable team on the road. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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02-10-18 | North Carolina -3 v. NC State | 96-89 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
551 North Carolina at NC State Coming off the statement win over Duke many will look for a letdown here vs the Wolfpack. But keep in mind that NC State just beat the Tar Heels 95-91 just two weeks ago in North Carolina. It’s one of two home losses on the season and the only chance this team has for home loss revenge. NC has dominated this series winning 16 of 20 outright and cashing 14 of those meetings. The line is short and the revenge is there. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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02-09-18 | Blazers v. Kings +5.5 | Top | 118-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
818 Portland at Sacramento The Blazers are playing its 11th straight game in a different city tonight when it travels to Sacramento. It doesn’t help that Portland had to go to overtime last night to beat Charlotte. This is also the fifth game in eight days for the visitor. Sacramento on the other hand finishes off a four game home stand. The Kings haven’t left Sacramento for a game since January 30th. The Kings enter play having won four of its last seven games. This is a terrific spot for Sacramento to keep that streak alive. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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02-08-18 | Old Dominion v. Southern Miss +7.5 | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
544 Old Dominion at Southern Miss OD is a solid 8-2 in conference action and just knocked off a pretty good UAB squad. The Monarchs haven’t fared especially well against Southern Miss, splitting four games straight up and dropping three of those games ATS. The Golden Eagles are a full seven points better playing at home than on the road. In fact, Southern Miss is undefeated on this court this season. Off a confidence building win at Florida Atlantic we will take our chances on a solid home dog tonight. PLAY SOUTHERN MISS |
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02-07-18 | Texas A&M +7 v. Auburn | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
757 Texas A&M at Auburn Now that the best defensive team in the league is finally healthy, we expect the Aggies to be a bet on team. A&M has taken the last two meetings in this series and matches up very well with the Tigers. Auburn is a fan favorite squad as its been a cash machine thus far, which gives us plenty of value in this current line. The sharp books are leaning with the dog here and we agree. PLAY TEXAS A&M |
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02-06-18 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
554 Nebraska at Minnesota Huskers have been a major money makers this year posting a 17-6 spread mark. Nebraska has won three straight and enters tonight at 8-4 in Big 10 play. It beat Minnesota 78-68 at home in its earlier meeting. Minnesota is just 14-11 overall and 3-9 in conference. It enters this game having lost 8 of its last 9 games. Yet the line has moved from Minnesota -1 to -3.5, despite the fact that 68% of the bets and money have been on the underdog. Big money is on the host and we agree as fading early season money makers at this point of the season is the way to go. PLAY MINNESOTA |