Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-05-18 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -2.5 | 75-73 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
720 West Virginia at Oklahoma The Mountaineers have lost 5 of its last 7 games, with the only two victories coming at home. Our numbers say that this team plays a full 9 points better at home than away. West Virginia had success trapping and slowing down Trey Young in Morgantown, but we don’t expect the same type of success when playing on the road. Oklahoma plays 5 points better at home than on the road, and enter this contest having dropped 4 of 6 overall. But this is an unedited home court and the Sooners are looking for in-season revenge. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +4.5 v. Patriots | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
101 Philadelphia & New England in Minnesota The Patriots haven’t had great success winning Super Bowl’s by margins. That looks to be something that holds true here. A lot of the reason for the Patriot’s success over the last two decades is playing in the worst division in football. If New England takes care of business against the Jets, Bills and Dolphins, it can very easily get home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. When having to go on the road and win in the postseason the Pats are simply not the same team. Philadelphia has the best unit on the field, its defense. And the offense can move the ball on a Pats defense that is rather weak considering the level of competition it played this season. PLAY PHILADELPHIA Here are five props we played in the offshore market at the same well known sports book. We could give you a ton of worthy plays in Las Vegas, but since most don’t live here it would be a waste of our time. 1st Score TD -158 Total FG Under 3.5 -135 Total FG Under 4.5 -325 No Safety -1058 Winning margin exactly 3 No -437 As I mentioned, you can get these and others at much better prices if you are in Vegas. If so, shop around. |
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02-03-18 | San Francisco v. Santa Clara +4.5 | 70-59 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
694 San Francisco at Santa Clara Home revenge game for the Dons, but with a 12-12 mark including 4-7 in conference, how much extra effort will San Francisco bring? After all it has dropped 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. Despite an 8-15 record the Broncos have been better in conference with a 5-6 mark. Coming in off four straight double digit home losses you know this club will be fired up for this contest. The number is favorable and we will back the Broncos here. PLAY SANTA CLARA |
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02-02-18 | Jazz v. Suns +6 | 129-97 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
814 Utah at Phoenix Sorry for the delay on this one. Wanted to send this out at what I thought would be the peak number. Utah just crushed the Warriors and Phoenix just let go of a well known player. Expectations are lower now on the Suns than at any other time this year. That’s when we step in and go against the Jazz in a letdown spot. PLAY PHOENIX |
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02-01-18 | Arizona State v. Washington +3 | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
566 Arizona State at Washington The Sun Devils came out of the gate winning 12 straight games to become highly ranked. It was a major surprise for a team expected to be a low finishing team in the PAC 12. But since that time Arizona State has compiled a 4-5 mark, all in league action. Washington has put up a 15-6 seasonal mark mostly as an afterthought. But at 5-3 in the league the Huskies are in better shape right now than the visitor. At home the Huskies are 14-5 SU vs the Sun Devils, overall holding a 27-14 SU mark in this series. We will back the home dog here against a fading Arizona State squad. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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01-31-18 | Texas v. Texas Tech -7.5 | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
760 Texas at Texas Tech While the Longhorns have dominated this series having won 15 of the last 20 meetings. We will side with the home favorite here. By our records the Longhorns have been over 5 points better at home than on the road. In fact, Texas has lost three straight on the road to West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Baylor. Off back to back wins, and hosting the talk of college basketball Trey Young next game, we can see this team lacking focus here. Texas Tech is 17-4 overall with one of those losses coming to this Texas team 67-58. It’s the first revenge game of the season for the Red Raiders. As with Texas the Red Raiders are more than 5 points better at home. This will be a home dominated series and Texas Tech gets its revenge. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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01-31-18 | Northern Iowa +1.5 v. Evansville | 49-57 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
745 Northern Iowa at Evansville Northern Iowa has beaten Evansville four out of the last five meetings. The Panthers were just blown out at Loyola Chicago 70-47 for its worst loss of the season. Evansville at 14-9 just beat Drake and Valparaiso, but is still 4-6 in conference. Nice spot here for a Northern Iowa squad we feel should be favored. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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01-30-18 | Ball State +7 v. Toledo | Top | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
533 Ball State at Toledo The Cardinal are 3-7 SU on the road this year and the Rockets enter play here having won seven straight games. Yet the early money has been on the road dog, and we agree. Despite the 15-6 overall mark and 7-1 record in the MAC, we view this Rockets team as overrated. Toledo just blew out Bowling Green by 26 last time out, so we can see this team fat and happy here. But keep in mind most of the success for the Rockets has been on the road. We will follow the line move and back the Cardinals. PLAY BALL STATE |
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01-29-18 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Michigan | 47-58 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
713 Northwestern at Michigan The Wolverines have struggled somewhat as of late, dropping 3 of 6 entering this contest. It just played a barnburner at Purdue on Thursday, the second game against the Boilermakers this season. Michigan has beaten up on the weak teams in the conference, but we really like this Northwestern squad. The record is only 13-9 but the Wildcats faced the likes of Creighton, Texas Tech and Oklahoma out of conference. These two teams are closer in our ratings than this line suggests. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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01-28-18 | Northern Iowa +6.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 47-70 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
837 Northern Iowa at Loyola Chicago At 11-10 and 3-6 in conference this has been a down season for the Panthers. But the team has won 3 of 4 entering this contest. The Ramblers are in a bad scheduling spot here. It plays lowly Northern Iowa and has big games on deck against Bradley and Missouri State, two 15 win teams. Currently on a six game winning streak, and having already beat Northern Iowa on the road, this is the spot to go against the better team. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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01-28-18 | Oakland +1 v. Wright State | 51-64 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
625 Oakland at Wright State The Grizzlies are starting to make a run in the Horizon League. Now 6-3 in conference after winning its fifth straight game on Friday. That was good news for our clients and we expect a repeat here. Oakland has two home losses on the season, Northern Kentucky and Wright State. The Grizzlies revenged the Norse and now the Raiders are in their sights. Wright State sits at 8-1 in conference and is coming in off a 32 point blowout of Detroit. This line tells us the betting markets say Oakland is the better team, we agree. PLAY OAKLAND |
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01-27-18 | Wake Forest +9.5 v. Louisville | 77-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
637 Wake Forest at Louisville A down season for the Demon Deacons has gotten worse as of late as it enters play tonight on a six game losing streak. But keep in mind it just played Duke twice, Virginia, NC State and Virginia Tech the last five games. Wake has been more competitive on the road this season. Louisville is 15-5 and just lost at Miami Florida. Most will assume a big bounce back from the Cardinals here, especially playing on a one loss home court. But Louisville has a date with Virginia on deck, and this team needs a signature win. Nice spot for the dog to take this one deep. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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01-27-18 | Georgetown +12 v. Creighton | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
641 Georgetown at Creighton The Hoyas played one of the easiest schedules in the country before league play started, and came into Big East play totally overrated. As expected Georgetown is now 3-6 in league play, having just dropped 2 of 3 at home. Now back on the road this team finally shows some betting value. Creighton is 16-5 on the season and undefeated on this home court. It already beat the Hoyas by 24 in Georgetown. Up on deck? The #1 Villanova Wildcats. Massive lookahead spot here for the host. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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01-27-18 | Cal Poly +9.5 v. UC-Davis | 56-80 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
647 Cal Poly at UC Davis This handicap is quite simple. The Mustangs of Cal Poly have dropped 10 of 12 and sit 1-5 in the Big West Conference. They are an afterthought in the betting markets as well as for opponents. Off back to back double digit losses nobody will want any part of this team, which is where we step in. UC Davis is 13-7 on the season and 4-2 in league play. It’s right in the midst of playing Cal Poly here and a home and home against Cal Northridge, who they just beat 63-56 at home on Thursday. This is an undefeated home team that is all fat and happy heading into tonight. PLAY CAL POLY |
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01-27-18 | Texas State +9 v. Georgia State | 50-54 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
547 Texas State at Georgia State Big battle in the Sun Belt Conference Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats at 7-2 in conference have played better ball away from home this season, an impressive 6-6 straight up mark. Only one of the losses was by more than todays spread. Georgia State is the hotter team having won six straight heading into this contest. But our numbers show the line to be inflated. We will take the points with the talented dog. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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01-27-18 | Elon +8.5 v. Towson | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
539 Elon at Towson The Phoenix were once 3-1 in conference but have dropped three straight games. Now it heads on the road to play Towson, a team it beat at home 75-72. Towson enters play at 15-7 overall but loaded up on weaklings in non-conference play. The Tigers are just 5-4 in the CAA and are off an impressive win over William & Mary. Early start home games don’t have the sam home court edge as games played at night. Plenty of margin here for the road dog. PLAY ELON |
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01-26-18 | Oakland +7 v. Northern Kentucky | 83-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
831 Oakland at Northern Kentucky The Grizzlies have had a great deal of success in the Horizon League over the years, and enter play at 5-3 in conference. It is looking to avenge an 87-83 home loss earlier this season. Oakland has only lost two home games all year, and enter here after winning four straight contests overall. The Norse have a 7-1 mark in conference with the only loss coming to Wright State. Northern returns home off back to back road wins against the two Milwaukee schools. With Oakland being two games behind in the conference standings and having already lost to the Norse, this becomes a must win game for the Grizzlies. We like this team and expect this contest to go to the wire. PLAY OAKLAND |
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01-26-18 | Pacers +6 v. Cavs | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
603 Indiana at Cleveland Why go away from something that has been so successful? The Cavaliers stink right now and the betting public has been slow to react. This line is simply too high right now for a team playing without any heart. The only consistent player over the last month is Wade, and he’s not with the team today because of a personal problem. Indiana has won all three meetings this season and have a 7-3 record as of late against the entire league. The Pacers are 19-5 this season when hitting at least 10 3 pointers a game. Against the Cavs they have made 16, 15 and 10 in the previous meetings. Cleveland has been terrible defending the perimeter all season. PLAY INDIANA |
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01-25-18 | CS-Northridge +13.5 v. UC-Davis | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
559 Cal Northridge at UC Davis Northridge lost 11 straight to start the season after winning against Life Pacific in its opener. Since that time the Matadors are 4-3 including winning its last two contests. In fact, all four of those wins were by 9 points or more. The Aggies return to the mainland after a 77-72 loss at Hawaii. After winning the last four meetings in this series the line is a bit inflated. We will back the improving Matadors to stay under this generous number. PLAY CAL NORTHRIDGE |
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01-24-18 | Mercer +9.5 v. East Tennessee State | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
775 Mercer at East Tennessee State Despite a 10-10 record Mercer has been a money during 4-9 ATS on the season. But the Bears have won 3 of 4 heading into this contest with the only loss coming by 4 to 14-5 NC Greensboro. On the season Mercer has a 3.9 average scoring margin per game. East Tennessee State comes into this contest on fire, winning 14 of 15, but has 14-5 Wofford on deck. Despite the records these two teams are closer in talent than this line suggests. PLAY MERCER |
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01-23-18 | Vanderbilt +11.5 v. Tennessee | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
519 Vanderbilt at Tennessee It has been a bad season for the Commodores entering here with a 7-12 mark on the year. It’s looked especially ugly on the road which is why this line is where it is. But this team has played well in this series winning straight up the last two times in this building. In fact, this has been a road dominated series the past three seasons. Tennessee just beat Vandy on the road by 9 just two weeks ago. No special reason for this team to get up here. It just beat South Carolina by 7, and has a road game at Iowa State on deck. We will take the generous points with a road dog everyone else has written off. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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01-23-18 | Providence +15.5 v. Villanova | 69-89 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
511 Providence at Villanova Friars playing much better ball as of late, winning four straight heading into this contest. The last two victories coming by double digits. Providence has cashed 4 of the last 5 in this series, including both meetings here the last two years. The Wildcats are 13-6 ATS on the season but just 3-3 ATS playing at home. Coming off back to back 20+ victories we can’t see the better team being up for this contest. PLAY PROVIDENCE |
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01-22-18 | Kings v. Hornets -10.5 | 107-112 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
702 Sacramento at Charlotte Since the Kings management made the decision to start the youngsters the team hasn’t won a game. Now rookie Giles is out for the season to shorten an already lineup with a lack of talent. The closest Kings loss as of late by by 6 points at home against the Clippers. A more reasonable chance for victory comes tomorrow at Orlando. The Hornets let a game slip away on Saturday as it blew a late lead against the Heat. This is the third of a five game homestead for Charlotte. We look for the host to make a statement here after watching victory slip through its hands late. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show | |
313 Minnesota at Philadelphia Better get this one up now before any more money comes in on the host. Simply put we want no part of a dome team playing on the road outside in the playoffs. It’s been a terrible situation historically and we saw it again last week with Atlanta. Home field means so much in this matchup, and to catch the host as an underdog is a no brainer. Foles has a history of being a productive quarterback over the years and his short sample size this season has given us strong line value. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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01-20-18 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +3.5 | 70-63 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
628 Tennessee at South Carolina Line here is a bit high in our opinion based on the lack of success by the Volunteers on the road. Just 3-2 SU away from home as this team has feasted on home cooking all season. Just once in five road games did Tennessee win by more than seven points. South Carolina had a huge comeback win against Kentucky last time out. That should be a positive momentum situation for a program that went deep into the tourney a year ago. Just one home loss for the Gamecocks on the season gives us even more confidence. PLAY SOUITH CAROLINA |
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01-19-18 | St Bonaventure +5.5 v. Davidson | 73-83 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
815 St Bonaventure at Davidson Very important game for the Bonnies who have lost all three road games in conference and enter here 2-3 overall. St Bonaventure is an excellent 3 point defending team which is what Davidson does best. This series is tied 4-4 and we actually rate St Bonaventure as the slightly better team. After facing Dayton, St Josephs and Rhode Island on the road the Bonnies have been tested. It’s also a veteran team that should bounce back here before a home revenge game against St Josephs. The Wildcats are a solid 4-1 in conference play, but none of its opponents currently have a winning mark on the season. Coming off blowout wins by margins of 30, 27 and 27 points, the Wildcats step up in class tonight. PLAY ST BONAVENTURE |
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01-18-18 | Pepperdine +10.5 v. Pacific | Top | 78-92 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
563 Pepperdine at Pacific The Waves have been bad this season with an 0-6 conference record and just 3-15 overall. It’s riding a nine game losing streak entering this contest, having lost by double digits in four straight. But as Lee Corso would say “Not so Fast”. Over the last five games the Wave have played teams with a combined 71-23 record. Tonights opponent is just 9-10 on the year. The Tigers are off three straight victories and face three heavyweights after this contest. St Mary, San Francisco and BYU. Terrible spot for the host while the visitor drops down in class. PLAY PEPPERDINE |
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01-17-18 | Heat +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
709 Miami at Milwaukee Quick revenge for the Bucks here after losing to Miami 97-79 on the road just three days ago. But in looking over the Milwaukee schedule we see 11 of the last 12 games being played against current playoff squads, with another on deck. Having to get up every single game to play the best teams in the league is a chore. Miami is now 12-5 SU off a SU loss this season. They lost at Chicago Monday after winning seven straight games. Coincidently we had Miami in that contest, our only loss in any sport this week. But we have the Heat being the slightly better team here and we prefer the Miami coaching staff which has done a terrific job the last full year here in Miami. The Heat are on a 6-2 SU run on the road and we really like the way this team is playing. PLAY MIAMI |
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01-16-18 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -5.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
536 Drake at Northern Iowa Many will look at this game and see the 5-1 in conference Bulldogs catching points at the 1-5 Panthers as a lock. But there is much more than wins and losses in handicapping sports. Drake is just 11-8 on the season, while Northern Iowa is 9-9. But the Panthers faced the likes of North Carolina, NC State, Villanova, UNLV, Texas Arlington, Iowa State and Xavier. The coaching staff made a surprising move last time out putting a talented freshman in the starting lineup at center, and dropping its leading scorer to the bench. For a coach to do such a thing tells us that its the right move to spark this squad. Northern Iowa in turn beat Valparaiso 81-76, breaking a seven game losing streak. Now with its back against the wall we expect these Panthers to be on the prowl. Our numbers show the Panthers to be 48 places better than the Bulldogs, and because of the way these two started the conference season the line is cheap. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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01-15-18 | Heat +1 v. Bulls | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
711 Miami at Chicago The Heat have been excellent in the second of back to back games and enter this affair on a seven game winning streak. Miami has already beaten the Bulls twice this year by 6 and 7 points. Chicago has dropped 5 of 8 after that surprising winning streak in December. We will back the veteran Heat here. PLAY MIAMI |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
305 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh The last time these two met the Jaguars dominated as Big Ben had a career worst game. So what has changed since that meeting? Not enough to make us want to back the Steelers here. In fact, because of the Brown injury Jacksonville should be better able to take advantage of the Steelers here. Jacksonville has a terrific pass defense and yet the Steelers brain trust tried to pass all over it in the first meeting. The correct game plan for Pittsburgh would be to run the ball as much as possible. But are they perceptive enough to stick with it through the entire game? We don’t believe so, as this team is too accustomed to having its way through the air. And that plays right into the hands of the touchdown underdog. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
302 Atlanta at Philadelphia Too much is being made about the quarterback advantage for the Falcons here. It’s just one position on the field and it’s getting too much play in this line. The best unit on the field is the Philadelphia defense. The Eagles are also playing at home off a bye week. Atlanta is a dome team playing outside in cold weather on a strong home field for the host. While Ryan wins the QB battle, the Eagles win the game. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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01-12-18 | Cavs v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
802 Cleveland at Indiana The Cavaliers have allowed its three highest point totals in the last three games. It has Golden State on deck and have lost to Indiana both times it faced the Pacers this year. Cleveland ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the offense is still trying to adjust with new players in new roles. The Pacers are finishing four game home stand after beating Chicago and Milwaukee, before losing to the Heat last night. With six straight games against Western Conference foes on deck, this is the game the Pacers have circled. PLAY INDIANA |
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01-11-18 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 99-133 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
504 Cleveland at Toronto The Cavs are off a terrible defensive game at Minnesota, and the Raptors are without two of its best players. The current line is saying that those differences are worth 10 1/2 points to the spread, which is ridiculous. Cleveland has been bad defensively all season and now with Thomas in the lineup the numbers should get worse, not better. With Ibaka and Lowry out of the lineup the numbers actually get better for Toronto. Sure its a small sample size, and nobody is saying the team is better without these two. But the loss isn’t nearly as drastic as this line suggests. Throw in the fact that the Raptors have playoff revenge against the Cavaliers, and we have a solid play on the host here. PLAY TORONTO |
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01-10-18 | UNLV v. Air Force +9.5 | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
780 Unlv at Air Force The Rebels haven’t won at Air Force since 2014 and were crushed in this building a year ago. Because off all the instability in the program virtually all the players will be playing here for the first time tonight. UNLV likes to get out and run, which is why it was so successful early on in non-conference action. The Rebels played a vast majority of its games at home. Now that conference play has started the opposition isn’t letting the Rebels show its athleticism. Air Force is always tough at home and enters play tonight 0-3 in the Mountain west Conference. This is a club that is hard to prepare for because of the style of play it uses. This line is way too high for a struggling Rebels team to lay. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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01-09-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Oklahoma | 65-75 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
529 Texas Tech at Oklahoma While Tre Young got his points on Saturday against West Virginia, the Mountaineers really made him work for it. It was the first real defense Oklahoma faced and the Sooners despite giving their all were simply outworked. We look for more of the same here from an excellent Texas Tech defense that will look to slow down the pace and get physical with the young superstar. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
102 Tennessee at Kansas City We want no part of the Titans today playing on the road. There were two teams in the playoffs that were outscored in the regular season, Buffalo and Tennessee. Mariota has been a turnover machine, especially on the road. Kansas City doesn’t turn the ball over and wins with defense and running the ball. Smith has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league this season by quarterback rating. He’s been able to extend the field by throwing longer passes this season. This line is being held down somewhat by the Chiefs prior playoff failures. While that may be the case in following weeks it’s not going to prevent KC in this matchup. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-05-18 | Bulls +5 v. Mavs | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
809 Chicago at Dallas Can’t ignore the massive improvements from the Bulls despite dropping three straight entering this contest. The last time Chicago lost to a team not in the current playoff race was way back on December 1st against Sacramento. That’s 17 straight games with the only losses coming to postseason type opposition. Dallas at 13-26 is far removed from the playoffs. Coming off a hard fought 125-122 loss to the Warriors just two days ago, we can’t see the Mavericks winning this one by a margin. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-04-18 | Thunder v. Clippers +2 | 127-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
504 Oklahoma City at LA Clippers While the Thunder are playing the second game of a back to back, it was on this same court in a blowout win over the shorthanded Lakers. Oklahoma City has been playing better ball but the Clippers streak has gone unnoticed. LA has won 6 of 7 with the lone loss coming by 3 at Memphis. The Clips have been straight up winners at home the past six outings, in addition to a 10 point victory at Houston. This is a team under the radar now and we take full advantage of the rested home squad. PLAY LA CLIPPERS |
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01-03-18 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota -16.5 | 50-62 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
792 Western Illinois at South Dakota Western Illinois has played the 342nd toughest schedule, while South Dakota comes in at #154. The Leathernecks have beaten the likes of Lincoln Christian, Calvary University and St Mary’s Minnesota. A 25 point loss to Iowa State and a 61 point loss to Butler tell you all you need to know about this squad. Despite playing the tenth easiest schedule in the nation, the Leathernecks are being outscored by 4.4 points per game. South Dakota comes into play at 13-4 on the season while playing almost 200 spots stronger opposition. The four losses came against teams a combined 47-9. This one should be a blowout for the host. PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA |
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01-03-18 | George Washington +1.5 v. Duquesne | 52-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
745 George Washington at Duquesne Big strength of schedule mismatch for the visitor as GW comes in at #113 while Duquesne sits at #335. The Colonials are 8-6 on the season but the losses came against teams with a combined record of 68-18. Despite playing such a strong schedule three of the six losses were by single digits, with the largest defeat coming by 20 points. The combined record of the teams the Dukes have lost to is just 30-27. Duquesne has beaten up on the Maryland Eastern Shores and the Delaware State’s of college basketball. This isn’t North Carolina A&T tonight. PLAY GEORGE WASHINGTON |
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12-30-17 | Georgetown v. Marquette -9.5 | 65-74 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
582 Georgetown at Marquette The Hoyas have played the 314th hardest schedule while Marquette sits at the 38th strongest. We’ve been looking for a nice spot to fade the 10-2 Hoyas and this is it. In 12 games Georgetown has played away from home just once, at Richmond. 11 of the 12 games were played on the Hoyas home court, not even a neutral site game on the schedule. Marquette has already faced Purdue, VCA, Wichita State, LSU, Georgia, Wisconsin and Xavier. Last time out it dropped a 91-87 home game to the Musketeers. Now this squad gets to face an overrated opponent before heading to the road to face Providence and Villanova. Great spot for the host. PLAY MARQUETTE |
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12-30-17 | Dayton -3 v. Duquesne | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
563 Dayton at Duquesne The Flyers have played the 93rd best strength of schedule in the country. Duquesne has played the 342nd. Dayton is 6-6 on the season while the Dukes are 9-4. This is a major step up in class for the host while Dayton has already faced the likes of Hofstra, Auburn, Mississippi State, Penn and St Mary’s. The Flyers are the superior team and have the better ball movement. They will find many open shots in this contest. PLAY DAYTON |
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12-29-17 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas State -3.5 | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
844 UL Monroe at Arkansas State The Warhawks come into this contest with a 6-5 record. But those wins have come against SE Louisiana, Rust College, Jackson State, Grambling State, Milksops and Centenary. All six of those victories were also played at home. All four road games resulted in losses by margins of 10, 18, 3 and 19. Arkansas State has a full week to get ready for this contest. Coming in with a lesser 5-8 record but facing a more potent schedule. The Red Wolves are 4-1 SU at home with wins by margins of 14, 14, 14 and 31 points. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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12-29-17 | Texas State v. Appalachian State -3.5 | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
828 Texas State at Appalachian State The Bobcats have played a schedule 125 places weaker than that of App State. This is its 2nd of three straight road games after beating Rice 74-66 a week ago. App State has the lesser record but has faced a far superior schedule. Games against Iowa State, UTEP, James Madison, VCU and Ohio State have toughened up this Mountaineers bunch. Now back home after four straight games away, with a full eight days to get ready for this contest. Playing on an undefeated home court we will lay the small number with the better team. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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12-28-17 | Southern Miss v. Marshall -11 | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
358 Southern Miss at Marshall The Golden Eagles have played a schedule 100 places easier than that of the Thundering Herd. Wins over the likes of Southern-New Orleans, Blue Mountain College, Rust College, Alabama A&M and William Carey will not prepare this team for league play. Marshall has taken on some cupcakes as well but did face Illinois, William & Mary and Xavier. This team is a perfect 8-0 SU at home and haven’t played since the 22nd. The Thundering Herd have scored at least 83 points in all but one home contest, six times reaching 90 or better. Despite the easy schedule Southern Miss is allowing 7.9 more points per game than it produces. Look for a big offensive game from the host. PLAY MARSHALL |
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12-27-17 | Wizards v. Hawks +6 | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
706 Washington at Atlanta Sandwich spot for the Wizards who are off a physical game last night in Boston, along with a home game against Houston on deck. The Wizards beat Boston last night 111-103, a game it needed to have against one of the best teams in the East. Now Washington faces a down Atlanta team that it beat by 19 in its only other meeting. Atlanta is at home for its fourth of five games after outlasting the Mavericks. The Hawks have had three straight days of rest before playing three games in four days. The spot screams home underdog and we agree. PLAY ATLANTA |
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12-26-17 | Jazz +6 v. Nuggets | 83-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
511 Utah at Denver Must win game here for the Jazz who have already taken care of the Nuggets twice this season. Coming into this contest having dropped 8 of 10, and facing Golden State and Cleveland up next. While it’s true Utah has come up short as of late, they have faced Oklahoma City twice, San Antonio, Houston, Cleveland and Boston the past six games. Denver is coming off a victory over Golden State, but the Warriors were looking past the Nuggets to yesterdays rematch with the Cavaliers. PLAY UTAH |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
128 Seattle at Dallas The Seahawks have scored a combined 17 first half points over the last four games. They continually play from behind because the defense is battered and bruised. It’s just not the same healthy defense that has been so dominant the past few seasons. The loss to the Rams last week was totally embarrassment, which you would expect a rebound from. But keep in mind that this is a team that entered the season expecting to go deep into the playoffs. Now it’s virtually shutout of the postseason. What type of effort will the players give knowing it has nothing to play for. Dallas gets Zeke back today and other than a quarterback he’s the most valuable skill position player in the league. In his last six games before the suspension the Boys scored 28, 33, 40, 31, 30 and 28 points. With him out of the lineup Dallas averaged 18.3 ppg. The defense has held the opposition to 17, 10 and 14 points the past three weeks. This is a cheap number for the Cowboys. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-22-17 | Texas State v. Rice +4.5 | 74-66 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
840 Texas State at Rice Texas State has played the 318th easiest schedule in the country while posting a 6-6 record. The Bobcats have already lost on the road at Air Force and Houston Baptist. Wins have come against the likes of Texas Pan American, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Texas A&M CC, McMurry and Ecclesia College. Despite such a cupcake schedule this team is outscoring the opposition by only 0.8 points per game. Rice comes in with a 3-9 mark but has played the likes of UNLV, Mississippi, Texas Tech and New Mexico. This is just the sixth home game for the Owls this season, and the only game here in a five game span. The Owls should give extreme effort in this one with Texas San Antonio and UTEP on deck. PLAY RICE |
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12-22-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Oakland -7 | 81-86 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
836 Eastern Michigan at Oakland What a strength of schedule mismatch. Eastern Michigan has the 307th ranked schedule with an 8-2 record, Oakland 76th with a 7-6 mark. The Eagles have won against Spring Arbor, Michigan Dearborn and Central State. Oakland has played the likes of Toledo, Syracuse, Michigan State and Kansas, all away from home. But the major reason we are backing the Grizzlies here is a 95-89 loss to these Eagles just 16 days ago. Eastern Michigan had three extra days to prepare in that game. It’s revenge time for the host who has been much more tested this season. PLAY OAKLAND |
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12-21-17 | Miami-OH v. DePaul -12.5 | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
532 Miami Ohio at DePaul Seems like the entire MAC has been loading up its schedule against nobodies. And that includes this Redhawks squad. Wins against Fordham, Wright State, LIU Brooklyn, Midway, IPFW and Rio Grande. Now it takes to the road to face a solid team in DePaul. In road games this season Miami has lost by 21, 25 and 19 points. DePaul has won five of six with the lone loss coming on this court last time out vs Northwestern. You can be assured this team will be fully prepared tonight. With league action starting in six days this is one last try to pad the non-conference resume. PLAY DEPAUL |
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12-20-17 | Georgia State v. Massachusetts -5 | 71-63 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
726 Georgia State at Massachusetts The Panthers have a 7-4 mark but it was done against the 247th ranked schedule. Wins against Carver Bible College, Eastern Washington, Alabama A&M and Point University won’t prepare them tonight for the Minutemen. This is also the 2nd of 5 straight road games. UMass enters play at 6-5 on the year, losing to quality opponents in Harvard, Minnesota, BYU and South Carolina. This club is riding a three game winning streak including victories over Providence and Georgia the last two times out. We saw how good that Georgia team was as it trounced Georgia Tech for us yesterday. A much tougher schedule and a scheduling edge put us squarely on the host here. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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12-19-17 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia -5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
528 Georgia Tech at Georgia The Yellow Jackets come into this rivalry game with a 5-4 record. But the victories have come against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Texas Pan American, North Texas, Florida A&M and Northwestern by a single point. Georgia Tech has played just once away from home, a three point loss at Wofford. Georgia has started the year playing the much tougher schedule and have a 7-2 record to show for it. Coming off a road favorite loss at Massachusetts, we can imagine this club looked past the Minutemen and paid for it. Let’s lay it with the better team on Tuesday. PLAY GEORGIA |
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12-18-17 | Charlotte +3 v. East Carolina | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
727 Charlotte at East Carolina While the records say East Carolina should be favored here, the strength of schedule says the wrong team is favored. The 49ers have been installed as underdogs in all lined games this year and have played the likes of Oklahoma State, College of Charleston, Davidson and Wake Forest. So a 3-6 record isn’t as disparaging as it would normally look. East Carolina on the other hand is 5-4 playing a vastly inferior schedule. Coppin State, Radford, Central Connecticut, NC A&T and Campbell just to name a few. Even with one of the weakest schedules in the country the Pirates are outscoring the opposition by just 0.6 points per game. And to make it worse, 8 of the 9 games were played at home. We have a live dog here with the 49ers. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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12-17-17 | Texas State v. Colorado State -5 | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
816 Texas State at Colorado State The Rams have played the much tougher schedule including back to back blowout losses at Arkansas and Oregon. Now the team is back home for three straight games before conference season begins. The Bobcats are 5-5 on the season but have lost to the likes of Air Force, UTSA, Canisius, Houston Baptist and Abiline Christian. Texas State has covered just one lined game all season. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
306 LA Chargers at Kansas City The Chargers have dropped seven straight games to Kansas City, yet are now a slight favorite on the road. While this team has won 7 of 9 games, those wins came against questionable opposition. Victories against the Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Browns and Redskins. Very likely all teams that will not make the playoffs. Kansas City on the other hand has beaten the likes of the Patriots, Eagles and these very same Chargers by a score of 24-10 on the road. The better team at home in a basically pick ‘em game? Sign us up. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 36 m | Show |
209 Middle Tennessee State & Arkansas State in Montgomery, Alabama Brent Stockstill has been a stud for the Blue Raiders when he has been healthy. That’s where we find the Middle Tennessee signal caller on Saturday. With the son of the coach behind center we expect big things from this squad. Middle Tennessee has moved the ball well against this level of competition. The problem has been first half turnovers. Down 13 turnovers in the first half of games despite producing an 8-4 yards per play advantage. Arkansas State just lost the conference title to Troy 32-25. That was the game this team wanted, especially playing at home. The Sun Belt is the lowest rated conference in the country, yet the Red Wolves have been installed as the favorite here. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State has a +27 explosive play margin on the season, while Arkansas State sits at +10. Better team from the better conference as an underdog. Can’t beat that combination. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +6.5 v. Troy | 30-50 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 45 m | Show | |
201 North Texas & Troy in New Orleans Some money is coming in on the Mean Green here and we fully agree. We get the team from the better conference as an underdog, and if the Mean Green take care of the football the stats show this game to be a coin flip. North Texas has an explosive offense which can trade points with anyone. Troy just won the Sun Belt with a 32-25 victory over Arkansas State. Many will remember the shocker it pulled off at LSU beating the Tigers 24-21. But despite a solid overall record this team played a very easy schedule. We will take the points here in a game that should be an exciting bank and forth showdown. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
114 Oakland at Kansas City Despite winning 3 of its last 4 games we aren’t buying into the Raiders who enter this contest having played the easiest schedule in the league. Wins over the Giants, Broncos and Dolphins aren’t much to write home about. The last time these two met was a Thursday Night Football win for the Raiders at home 31-30. The host on these early week games has a sizable advantage so once again we found the Raiders in a favorable position. Now with Kansas City entering this game having lost 6 of 7, we get to back the better team with the far better coach at a discount. With three straight home games for the Chiefs Kansas City can take advantage of a weak schedule down the stretch. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
130 Dallas at NY Giants Dallas beat the Giants 19-3 in the season opener, but the Cowboys have faded badly since. The offense has really been affected with the suspension on Elliott, and his absence has hurt the overall productivity of Prescott. Keep in mind heading into last week this team had scored 6, 9 and 7 points, and is now a road favorite. Make no mistake the Giants are not a good football team, but the coaching change can’t do anything but help. The players didn’t respect McAdoo and really were against the Manning benching a week ago. With Philadelphia on deck we really expect the players to exceed expectations in this game. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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12-08-17 | Bulls v. Hornets -9 | 119-111 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
502 Chicago at Charlotte The Bulls have dropped 15 of 16 games heading into the contest tonight. The lone victory came against these Hornets. In fact, Chicago is 1-11 this season when facing teams ranked 1-16 in our power ratings, and the lone victory again was against Charlotte.The Bulls return home tomorrow for a winnable game hosting the Knicks, so if this game gets out of hand early we can see the bench for the majority of the second half. Charlotte has dropped 5 of 6 but the teams it lost to were Cleveland, San Antonio, Toronto, Miami and Golden State. This is the time for this club to get back into the win column against a team it should be able to dominate. The only home losses for Charlotte this year have come against Houston, Cleveland, San Antonio and Golden State. The Bulls will be a welcome relief. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
102 New Orleans at Atlanta The last four years the team that won the first game of this series also won the second game. This should be easy. Until you realize there are only four weeks left in the season and these two have yet to meet this year. A strange scheduling situation indeed. The Saints have been terrific this year and just knocked off Carolina for the season sweep. New Orleans has won 9 of 10 games heading into this matchup. But the short week does bring some problems even though the trip is short to Atlanta. The Saints now have a virtual two game lead on second place Carolina after winning the tie breaker. New Orleans still has the Jets and Bucs on the schedule, so beating Atlanta here isn’t a priority. The Falcons on the other hand trail the Saints by two full games, and a loss here would be devastating if a division title is the goal. Even for a wild card this is a game Atlanta has to have. Off a home loss to Minnesota we are catching the host with more on the line here. This is also the third straight home game for the Falcons. With Seattle at 8-4 and Carolina also 8-4, this team simply cannot fall to 7-6 and make the postseason. It’s all in for the host and we will join them. PLAY ATLANTA |
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12-03-17 | Broncos -1.5 v. Dolphins | 9-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
359 Denver at Miami Now that the quarterback roulette wheel has landed on Trevor Siemian, we will look to back a Broncos team which has hit rock bottom. It’s now clear that the Broncos have the best chance to win behind this quarterback. He performed well this year when his surrounding players were healthy. That’s the case again here as Denver has finally gotten key pieces back in the lineup. Miami continues to struggle offensively while making mediocre offenses look good. Carolina with 45, Oakland with 27, the Jets with 28, Tampa Bay with 30 and Baltimore with 40 just in the past few weeks. Miami has virtually no home field advantage. We will back the Broncos here who still have the best unit on the field, the Denver defense. PLAY DENVER |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
368 Kansas City at NY Jets The Chiefs are in a freewill losing 5 of 6 with offensive outputs of 10, 9 and 17 the past three games. Opponents are stuffing the run and making Smith throw the ball long, a terrific strategy. KC has dropped three straight on the road to the struggling Giants, Cowboys and Raiders. Todd Bowles has gotten more out of his team this year than anyone in the league. This team gives full effort every time out, losing just once all season by double digits way back in week two. New York outplayed Carolina last week and couldn’t get the victory. We expect a better result out of the Jets here, who haven’t left the city since November 12th. PLAY NY JETS |
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12-02-17 | Georgia Southern v. Costal Carolina +3 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 35 m | Show | |
310 Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina The Eagles look like a different team since the coaching change, winning two straight and covering 4 of 5. But despite the improvements in Statesboro we are surprised by this current line. We actually have Coastal favored here based on a great situational spot for the host. Georgia Southern is now playing its ninth straight week as its last bye happened on September 30th. The Chanticleers on the other hand had last week off after a 13-7 win in Idaho. Now the first year FBS squad can end the season on a two game winning streak by taking care of business at home. On the season Coastal is exactly even in explosive plays, at 44 each way. Georgia Southern on the other hand is -25 on the year, allowing a whopping 58 plays of 20 yards or more. Even in this covering string the Eagles have permitted 25 while accumulating just 16 explosive plays. Last weeks win at Louisiana was the first road win of the season for Georgia Southern, just can’t trust them as a road favorite here. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 113-91 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
704 Cleveland at Philadelphia The Cavaliers enter here on a seven game winning streak, but we expect that run to end tonight. Cleveland has had a hard time matching up to young teams with a lot of speed this year, as Cleveland is the oldest squad in the league. This team has a 12-7 record against the 26th ranked schedule. The Cavs have taken advantage of playing the fifth easiest schedule in the league. Philadelphia on the other hand has an 11-7 record facing the hardest schedule in the league. The Sixers have already played Golden State twice, Boston, Toronto and Houston twice. The Sixers are great on the boards and are tough to stop inside offensively. The big weakness for the Cars is defending the paint. Major mismatch for the Sixers here who treat this like a playoff game tonight. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-26-17 | Bills +9 v. Chiefs | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
257 Buffalo at Kansas City The Bills players and organization embarrassed themselves last week by putting in a rookie quarterback to start the game. The past three games the Bills refused to give themselves any chance by turning the ball over. Now with the rightful QB back behind center Buffalo has a chance to get back to its drive to make the playoffs. Keep in mind last week Buffalo was +7 with a rookie QB, now the line is higher with Taylor behind center. The Chargers are playing better ball than the Chiefs, yet the line is higher. Kansas City has lost 4 of its last 5 games with the only victory coming against a Denver team riding what is now a 6 game losing streak. The last four games KC has played the NY Giants, the Cowboys, the Broncos and the Raiders. Every one of those teams have been playing terrible ball. Can’t trust the Chiefs in this price range. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
261 Carolina at NY Jets Both teams enter off a bye week but we would much rather back the more talented Panthers squad here. Carolina has three losses on the season, losing to New Orleans and Philadelphia along the way. Carolina has beaten New England and Atlanta. The Jets were a major surprise out of the gate winning 3 of 5, but has since dropped 4 of 5. The only good team the Jets beat all season was Jacksonville in overtime. Only once all season has this team surpassed 28 points in a game. The Jets have an extremely tough schedule from here on out. We may have seen the last Jets win this season. PLAY CAROLINA |
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11-25-17 | Clemson v. South Carolina +13.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
198 Clemson at South Carolina We’ve had this game circled all season just like the homesteading Gamecocks. We love Dabo Swinney and everything he stands for, but it’s a miracle how well this team has done with such a drop-off in talent. Despite having the better personnel in a vast majority of games, the Tigers have only started three first half drives in opponent territory. The defense just isn’t the same as in past editions. While very good it’s not excellent as it was a year ago. As for the key stat of explosive plays, Clemson is +6 on the season. The worst for all the teams considered to be in the running for the Final Four. South Carolina is +8 on the season in explosive plays and it has eight drives starting in opponent territory in the first half. Will Muschamp has done an outstanding job in his second year in Columbia. While the stats don’t always show it, this team finds ways to win. This is a huge rivalry in the state of South Carolina. Last year Clemson pummeled the Gamecocks 56-7. You know this game has been circled and now South Carolina has the personnel to take this to the wire. An outright upset would not surprise. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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11-25-17 | Iowa State +3 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
163 Iowa State at Kansas State Really like the job Matt Campbell has done here in his second season. He took over a program that was 3-9, 2-10 and 3-9 the previous three seasons. In just his second year the Cyclones had improved so much there was talk of the Big 12 Championship going through Ames. But after losses to West Virginia by 4 and Oklahoma State by 7 this team has become an afterthought. Not in our eyes as we really like the situation and the matchup here. Let’s take a look at how the Cyclones have done on the road this year. A 41-14 win at Akron who is playing in the MAC Championship game. A 38-31 win at Oklahoma, a team likely to play for the National Championship. A 31-13 win at Texas A&M, a 23-13 win at Baylor and a 20-16 loss at West Virginia. That’s a pretty good road season by anyones standards. Kansas State is exactly even in explosive plays this year, Iowa State is +15. The Wildcats haven’t has a bye since September 23rd, and are coming off three straight games that were get wrenching. A 42-35 overtime win at Texas Tech, a 28-23 loss hosting West Virginia, and a 45-40 upset victory at Oklahoma State last week. K State was a 19 1/2 point underdog in that contest. Can’t expect a full tank of gas out of the host here, who really shouldn’t be favored. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-24-17 | South Florida v. Central Florida -10 | 42-49 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
138 South Florida at Central Florida Likely the most overrated team in the country is the South Florida Bulls. This team has had a cakewalk schedule and lost to the only decent team it played, Houston as a 10 point favorite. The Knights will be much better than any squad this team has faced all year. This is a double revenge game for UCF after losing to the Bulls each of the last two seasons. While UCF hasn’t played a high quality schedule either, it did beat Memphis, Navy and SMU. UCF has a +39 explosive play advantage on the season, while the Bulls are at +19. A win here and the Knights finish the regular season undefeated. The double revenge angle doesn’t hurt. This team has had this game circled all year. Now its time to show your strengths. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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11-24-17 | Navy v. Houston -4.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
130 Navy at Houston We’ve been disappointed in this Navy team all season. Sure a 6-4 straight up mark is fine, but it pails in comparison to previous editions. A major problem is turnovers. This year in first half the Midshipmen are down 7 turnovers, something hard to imagine for a club that doesn’t throw the ball. In the last nine seasons Navy only had one year it didn’t have a turnover advantage. That was in 2014 when it was -4 on the year. Navy is also at a -7 margin in explosive plays. This team is also off a hard fought rivalry game with Notre Dame with Army on deck. Houston is the fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before coming up short at Tulane. That should provide all the motivation the Cougars need to end the regular season. Houston is +1 in explosive plays and does a nice job against the run. That’s the key in this matchup as Navy is one-dimensional. Houston lost to Navy last year as a 17 point favorite, so you know this team has had this game circled. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss +16 v. Mississippi State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
113 Mississippi at Mississippi State These two teams are heading in opposite directions heading into the Egg Bowl. Mississippi is playing much better ball down the stretch of the season, after struggling out of the gate. The Rebels are 2-2 SU with the losses coming by 7 points to Texas A&M and a single point against Arkansas. The offense has improved steadily, while the defense played its best two games of the season the past two weeks. The Mississippi State Bulldogs were riding high on a four game winning streak before hosting Alabama. The game was tied at the half and the Crimson Tide dominated late in a 7 point Bulldog loss. Last week this team really struggled against an Arkansas team that had fired its coach and athletic director. The offense hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as earlier in the year. Mississippi needs this game to be bowl eligible and looks for revenge after a 55-20 loss at this location last year. Keep in mind the Rebels had won 3 of the four previous meetings with the only defeat coming in overtime. This line is simply too high. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-22-17 | Clippers -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
507 LA Clippers at Atlanta The Clippers have lost 9 straight games and finish off the road trip at Atlanta and Sacramento. A nice pair to get right against. While LA enters this contest with a 5-11 record, the nine straight losses have come against all teams expected to be in playoff contention. The Hawks, not so much. Atlanta is just 3-14 on the year. And have played about how you would expect from a team that was gutted in the off-season. The Hawks have one victory at home all year and that was against equally inept Sacramento. The Clippers have far better talent here and get back in the win column on Wednesday. PLAY LA CLIPPERS |
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11-21-17 | Kent State +15 v. Akron | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
101 Kent State at Akron This is the biggest rival for each of these programs as the campuses are roughly 20 miles from each other. The Golden Flashes have had a disappointing season but a season ending win over its rival would be a big boost to the offseason morale. Especially because it would likely keep Akron out of the MAC title game. Akron really pulled off a shocker last week beating Ohio U as a 15 point home underdog. That was after the Bobcats pounded Toledo the week before. We expect this Zips team to look more like the team that enters here with a 5-5 SU record in FBS games this season. Because of the importance of this game the line is 5 points higher than what it should be. For comparison sake let’s take a look at common opponents over the last 6 weeks. Akron was +15 at home last week against Ohio U, while a month ago the Flashes were +17 on the road in Athens. Six weeks ago Akron was +12 1/2 at Western Michigan, while two weeks ago the Flashes were +20 1/2 at the same venue. With these examples we see Akron being an 11 point favorite here at best. We take the generous number here as the Golden Flashes make this a game. PLAY KENT STATE |
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11-18-17 | Oklahoma -36.5 v. Kansas | 41-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
343 Oklahoma at Kansas Is is possible that the Sooners will have a letdown after facing TCU and Oklahoma State? Most likely. But is Kansas good enough to stop a possibly disinterested foe? Highly unlikely. With just Kansas and West Virginia to end the regular season the Sooners can only help themselves in the committee minds by winning in blowout fashion. Here is the season long explosive play numbers for these two teams. Oklahoma 88 to 48. Kansas 32 to 63. That’s a combined 71 explosive play difference for the Sooners. Sure the line is high but keep in mind Kansas has allowed 35 first half points three times this season.Oklahoma has produced 35 or better first half points three times this season. In the last two weeks the Sooners put up 38 first half points against TCU and Oklahoma State. This one should be decided very quickly. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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11-18-17 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
375 Virginia at Miami Florida The Cavaliers have really improved from the 2-10 season Bronco Mendenhall had in his first season in Charlottesville. Virginia has won 5 of 8 including beating Boise State and Georgia Tech. Miami should be in for a letdown here after facing Notre Dame and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. Keep in mind Miami has a short week ahead as it travels to Pittsburgh next Friday. After beating the Cavaliers the past two seasons we can see the Hurricane being let than focused here. While others vying for the national title have terrific explosive play numbers, Miami is only up 15 on the season. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-18-17 | UL-Monroe +37 v. Auburn | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
385 Louisiana Monroe at Auburn The Warhawks enter this game off a bye off wins over Appalachian State and Idaho. We expect the positive vibe to continue here as ULM looks to perform much better than last years 58-7 loss to these Tigers. This is the ultimate sandwich situation for the Tigers. Off beating #1 Georgia and having Alabama on deck. If Auburn can beat the Tide next week and Georgia again in the league championship, Auburn will have a chance to make the final four. We can see the coaching staff resting key players here, which will make it hard for the Tigers to surpass this number. PLAY ULM |
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11-17-17 | Pistons +1.5 v. Pacers | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
701 Detroit at Indiana Pistons are just 3-3 SU on the road as home cooking has gotten them off to a terrific start. But those losses came at the hands of two playoff teams and the final game on a California road trip. With Minnesota, Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Boston on deck, this is a must have game for Detroit. Indiana is playing in its tenth different city in its last ten games. So home court advantage will be minimal. After this contest the Pacers head back on the road to play Miami and Orlando, before coming home for a well deserved three game home stand. PLAY DETROIT |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
308 Eastern Michigan at Miami Ohio The Eagles enter play out of the bowl picture after losing to Central Michigan a week ago. This is a team much better than its record, but have not had many breaks go its way this season. Six losses were either by 5 points or less. or in overtime which happened three games this season. In the last month alone Eastern lost two overtime games against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Now that the postseason is out of reach we can’t see how this team can right itself for the remaining two games. While Eastern Michigan is just playing out the string, Miami can still go bowling with wins over Eastern and Ball State. With the starting QB back and healthy we look for the Redhawks to do what it did last year, win late in the season to go bowling. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-13-17 | Cavs v. Knicks +5 | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
704 Cleveland at New York The Cavaliers continue to be priced like prior editions, not a team of strangers looking to find out how to play together. The Cavs get up to play the top teams in the league, but have failed miserably when stepping down in class. The Knicks have won 7 of 9 including knocking off these Cavaliers in Cleveland. We are well aware of the revenge motive for the Cavs, but we can’t see them pulling away from this Knicks team who is playing the much better ball. PLAY NEW YORK |
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11-12-17 | Patriots -7.5 v. Broncos | Top | 41-16 | Win | 101 | 53 h 25 m | Show |
273 New England at Denver Pats defense has held the opposition to 13, 7, 17 and 14 points the past four games. That’s a stark contrast to what the Pats did to begin the season. The bye week should only improve the situation. Denver on the other hand have been outscored by 28, 10, 21 and 13 points the last four games. The defense which was so good early is starting to collapse of the weight of carrying this offense. The last three games Denver has produced 3.9, 3.5 and 3.5 first half yards per play. The scoring unit isn’t giving the defense a chance. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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11-12-17 | Vikings -1.5 v. Redskins | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 3 m | Show | |
251 Minnesota at Washington Vikings off a bye after returning from London with a 33-17 win over the Browns. This is actually just the third true road game for Minnesota this year after splitting at Pittsburgh and Chicago. The Vikings have held all but one opponent this season to under 20 points, and this Washington offensive line is banged up. The Skins were outgained by 200 yards in last weeks stunner in Seattle. We don’t trust the Skins to be that fortunate this week against the Likes. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | 20-17 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 57 m | Show | |
255 Pittsburgh at Indianapolis Over the last three years the Steelers have beaten the Colts by an average of 24 points per game. Coming in off a bye we see this Steelers offense exploding against the worst defense in football. While many are disappointed with this Pittsburgh offense, keep in mind this team has yet to have a first half drive starting in opponent territory. Indy coming off shocker at Houston that had more to do with Tom Savage than anything the Colts accomplished. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
265 Cleveland at Detroit Not only are the Browns winless on the season which provides value. But the team is off a bye week while Detroit beat divisional rival Green Bay on Monday Night Football. There likely won’t be a better spot to back the Browns all season. Cleveland has been competitive in 3 of the last 4 games, and actually had a halftime lead against Minnesota. Detroit has this game sandwiched around divisional rivals, in fact, after playing Green Bay last week they face Chicago and Minnesota the next two weeks. The Lions biggest favorite role this season was -2 hosting Carolina. We look for Detroit to try to get off the field without injuries and move on to more important games. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-11-17 | Wyoming +3 v. Air Force | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 125 h 23 m | Show |
151 Wyoming at Air Force The Cowboys have cashed 9 straight games in this series and are playing the far better ball at the moment. Wyoming has won 5 of 6 with the only loss coming at league leading Boise State. The Cowboy defense has been outstanding holding all but one opponent this year to 24 points or less. The last three games Wyoming has only permitted 6 combined explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Air Force just had its record broken for the longest streak of games without getting shutout. That was in a 21-0 loss to rival Army. The Falcons are only 2-5 ATS after facing the Cadets. On the season Air Force has permitted 19 more explosive plays than earned, as opposed to the Cowboys who are only -3 on the season. PLAY WYOMING |
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11-11-17 | UAB +7.5 v. UTSA | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 100 h 42 m | Show | |
209 UAB at UTSA The amazing season on UAB football continues on Saturday. Things were so bad in Birmingham that the university didn’t even field a team the last two seasons. Now back, UAB enters play at 5-3 vs FBS opponents, including winning 4 of its last 5 games. The Blazers haven’t permitted more than 23 points in regulation the past five games. The Roadrunners are -1 on the season in explosive plays in conference, UAB is also at -1. UTSA isn’t exactly a powerhouse offensively with a high of 31 points coming against UTEP over the past five games. UTEP by most power ratings is last in college football. In what looks like a low scoring battle getting a number of this size is a gift. An outright upset would not surprise. PLAY UAB |
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11-11-17 | Troy v. Costal Carolina +17 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
148 Troy at Coastal Carolina Can’t see the Trojans getting excited to play a team with one lone victory right before its bye week. Off its third straight victory on Thursday beating Idaho 24-21 the Trojans may be a bit overrated here. Coastal Carolina is stepping up to FBS level this year after winning 43 games at the FCS level the past four seasons. While the wins haven’t been there the energy has. Last week the Chanticleers almost knocked off Arkansas on the road as a 24 point underdog. On the season Coastal is +1 in explosive plays, right behind the +6 of Troy. This line is simply too high for the road favorite Trojans in a letdown situation. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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11-09-17 | North Carolina +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 59 m | Show | |
117 North Carolina at Pittsburgh The Tar Heels were very competitive early in the season before major injuries took a toll on this team. Single digit losses to Virginia and Miami Florida continue to show the fight in this squad. Now off a bye week we look for North Carolina to come out fighting hard with winnable games at Pittsburgh and hosting Western Carolina on deck. Pitt has fared better in the win column, but isn’t really any better than its counterpart on Thursday. Both teams are at -8 in explosive plays on the season against similar schedules. Pittsburgh has only surpassed 31 points once all year, against Rice, one of the bottom feeders in FBS football. The last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, which is where we see this one landing. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green +8 v. Buffalo | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
103 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons have won the last six meetings in this series, and Buffalo hasn’t won any game against BG by this margin since 2005. Both teams have a +2 explosive play margin in Mid-American Conference action. Bowling Green played the tougher non-conference slate with Michigan and Northwestern. Buffalo faced Minnesota and Army. The Bulls haven’t surpassed 31 regulation points in any MAC game this year. The last three games saw them scoring 20, 14 and 13 points. Tough to lay this type of number against an offense which has averaged 36.5 points per game the last four outings. We like this Bulls team but this line is simply too high. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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11-04-17 | Illinois +14 v. Purdue | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
327 Illinois at Purdue In Big 10 play Illinois is 0-5 being outscored an average of 31.2-14.6. That’s 16.6 points per game with an explosive play advantage of 20 to 16. In conference play Purdue is 1-4 being outscored by an average of 20.2- 17.2. An average of just 3 points per game. The Boilermakers are at a deficit of 6 in explosive plays. The lone victory for Purdue over Minnesota 31-17 is what this line is based on, a game in which the team was behind 14-6 at the half. So while the league average shows Purdue to be a double digit favorite here, the eye test says something different. It’s very tough to lay this type of number when the club is averaging just 17.2 points per league contest. An outright upset here would not surprise. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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11-04-17 | UMass +31.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
373 Massachusetts at Mississippi State UMass has won two straight games beating Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. But this team has been very competitive all season long. In fact, its largest loss on the season was by 10 points twice. The Minutemen play to the finish, which is exactly what you are looking for with a sizable underdog. This is a sandwich spot for Miss State. Coming off Texas A&M and having its biggest game of the year on deck vs Alabama. The Bulldogs have lost nine straight games to the Crimson Tide. Who do you think this team is preparing for this week? PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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11-03-17 | Cavs v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
702 Cleveland at Washington The Cavaliers have had a hard time keeping up with John Wall in the past. This year it should be much harder without Irving and Shumpert, its best defensive guard. Sure Kyrie isn’t very good defensively but he could force Wall to play both sides of the court, something the Cavalier guards of this season simply don’t have. Cleveland has been a step or two slow defensively all season and now are without Thompson, its best overall defensive player. The Wizards are simply too fast for this aging team to slow down, looks like a double digit victory for the host. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +7.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
317 Marshall at Florida Atlantic We expect a big bounce back week from the Thundering Herd after a 41-30 home loss to FIU. Marshall had run off five straight victories before that contest, holding 4 of 5 opponents to 10 points or less. The Thundering Herd have won all four meetings in this series with Florida Atlantic. The Owls have won four straight games after looking terrible out of the gate with Navy. But keep in mind all the weaknesses the teams the Owls faced have. Middle Tennessee State and Old Dominion are without starting quarterbacks. North Texas and Western Kentucky have regressed, especially the Hilltoppers after losing its head coach. So while we think the Owls are much improved, we aren’t buying into the huge power rating adjustment. Marshall has the better explosive play numbers and we can’t pass up this club getting a touchdown or more. PLAY MARSHALL |
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11-02-17 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -8 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
310 Northern Illinois at Toledo Simply can’t trust the Huskies here who have faced a full schedule of weak offensive opponents. Only once all season have Northern Illinois surpassed 14 first half points, and that won’t get it done against this dynamic Rockets offense. On the season the Huskies have produced just 21 total explosive plays of 20 yards or better. This isn’t an offense built on coming from behind. Toledo on the other hand have 41 explosive plays on the year. Defensively the Rockets have allowed just 3, 2 and 2 twenty yard gains the past three games. With the defense getting better and the offense in high gear we will lay the points with the host. PLAY TOLEDO |
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10-31-17 | Bowling Green -2.5 v. Kent State | Top | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
301 Bowling Green at Kent State The Falcons have owned this series as of late winning by margins of 35, 48, 10 and 19 points the past four seasons. While BG is just 2-5 SU vs FBS competition, this team has been very competitive when not stepping up in class. Kent State has the worst scoring offense in college football. Only twice did the Flashes reach double digits this year. Scoring 13 hosting Buffalo and 17 hosting Miami Ohio. Strictly looking at first half scoring Kent State has amassed 28 total points in 7 games. That’s an average of 4 points in the first half this season. What is even more astounding in that Kent has had 7 first half drives starting in opponent territory. Bowling Green can score and Kent has no answer, road favorite takes the cash here. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |