Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread. |
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12-02-22 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - Both teams are coming off disappointing losses which can largely be attributed to poor offensive play. The 76ers managed just 85-points against the Cavaliers, shooting just 42% overall and 23% from Deep. The Grizzlies turned the ball over 27-times and missed 12-free throws in a loss at Minnesota. We expect both offenses to get back on track here. For the season the Grizzlies have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating overall and when playing at home. The 76ers rank 19th overall in OEFF but have a higher efficiency rating when playing on the road. The 76ers also tend to play faster when away from Philly and give up more points per possession. Memphis has played much faster in their last five games and will want to dictate tempo in this one, forcing the Sixers to also play fast. When Philly is the road team this season those games have averaged 217.2PPG. When the Grizzlies have played at home those contests have averaged 226.9PPG. Let’s not forget that an average NBA game this season has finished with 226 total points which means we need an ‘average’ performance from both teams to cash this ticket. |
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12-02-22 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte UNDER 122.5 | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points – Appalachian State vs Charlotte, Friday at 7 PM ET - Low total here for a reason. Two very slow paced teams facing off here and we don’t expect many possessions. Charlotte ranks 362nd (out of 363 teams) in adjusted tempo and App State ranks 260th in that category. Charlotte is 361st in possessions per game and ASU is 179th. The 49ers are coming off a game earlier this week in which they played a very good offensive team, Davidson, who ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and 56th in eFG%. That game went to OT but the score at the end of regulation was 59-59. Now they face an App State offense that ranks 256th in offensive efficiency and 208th in eFG%. Charlotte is far from a great offensive team ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG%. Both rank outside the top 200 in 3 point shooting percentage and neither team is adept at offensive rebounding (331st and 286th). Both teams protect the ball committing few turnovers so not many 2nd chance offensive points in this game or extra possessions. We think both teams will struggle to get to 60 here and we’ll take the UNDER. |
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12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points – Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is the lowest total set on a Buffalo game this season and they only other one that was close was when they faced Pittsburgh in early October and the total was 44.5. The average total set in Buffalo games this season is 49.8 and this one has gotten too low in our opinion. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL averaging 28 PPG and since throwing up a dud vs the Jets a month ago (Bills score 17), Buffalo has put up 89 points over their last 3 games. New England’s defense had a very solid 3 game stretch leading into last week’s game vs Minnesota where they allowed the Vikings to pile up 33 points. However, those 3 games were vs poor offenses with the NY Jets (twice) and Indianapolis. The Bills we be the best offense the Patriots have faced this season and in their 3 meetings last year (one in the playoffs), Buffalo averaged 30 PPG. Defensively Buffalo was great early in the season giving up just 12 PPG over their first 5 contests. However, they’ve been trending down allowing 23 PPG over their last 6 games including 78 points over their last 3 (26 PPG). They will be without their top pass rusher Von Miller in this game. New England has scored at least 22 points in 7 of their last 9 games. As we mentioned, these 2 teams met 3 times last season and the average points scored in those games was 47.5 and that includes a 14-10 game late in the season with terrible wet and windy weather. It’s going to be cold in Boston on Thursday night but no precipitation. With Buffalo favored by 4 here, the projected final score is around 24-20 and we expect both teams to top those totals. Over is the play. |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - The Pistons just allowed 140-points to the Knicks which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this line higher than it should be. The Mavericks are the slowest paced team in the league and score just 109.4PPG. They will slow things down and keep them from being a high scoring game. Detroit is 15th or basically average in pace. It’s not like the Mavs are great when it comes to offensive efficiency either as they rank 11th in points per possession. Detroit ranks 23rd in points per possession at 1.099PPP. The Mavs are 9th in defensive efficiency and will limit the Pistons scoring opportunities here. Granted Detroit is 2nd to last in DEFF but you can expect Dallas to do their best to manage load minutes for Luka Doncic and the rest of the starters. Detroit recently played a Cavaliers team that is similar to Dallas in many regards and the game finished with 196 total points. Dallas has allowed point to a few good offenses in recent games (Warriors, Bucks, Celtics) but if you remove those teams they have allowed 105 or less in 5 straight games. The Under is the play here. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one. |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle. |
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11-28-22 | Stars v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
#9/10 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Dallas Stars at St Louis Blues, Monday at 8 PM ET - Watching these teams closely in terms of the way they have been playing and we have liked what we have seen in terms of expecting a high-scoring game here. St Louis has now won 8 of 10 games and the Blues and their opponents have combined to score at least 7 goals in 6 of last 7 games. Before their recent 7-game win streak the Blues had lost 8 in a row and in 5 of the last 6 defeats they allowed at least 5 goals. You can see why we are expecting a lot of goals here no matter which way the ice ends up being tilted in this one! Also, the Blues have had 9 home games this season and all but three of them totaled at least 7 goals and one of the three that did not reach 7 did make it to the 6-goal mark and that is the total posted on this game Monday. Dallas is off a 4-1 loss at Colorado but, prior to this, 12 of 13 Stars games heading into that one had totaled at least 6 goals. The Stars have now played 7 road games this month and 6 of them have reached at least the 6-goal mark. We feel we have excellent line value with this total settling in at 6 goals. Dallas' average total in the last 14 games this season has been 7.8 goals per game. The Blues average home game has totaled 7.1 goals per game this season! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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11-28-22 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 225 | Top | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 225 Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics are shooting 40% from deep which ranks 1st in the NBA. They shoot 49% overall which is 4th and they average the most points per game at 120.4PPG. Defensively the Celtics aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past ranking 14th in PPG allowed at 113.3. They also allow opponents to shoot 46.8% (16th) overall and 34.9% from beyond the arc (12th). The Hornets are averaging 109.4PPG which is one of the lower numbers in the league and allowing 114.2PPG which is roughly league average. Charlotte is playing at a faster pace in recent games as they are the 8th fastest team in their last five games. Boston is on a 9-0 Over streak at home when facing a team with a losing road record. Charlotte is on a 6-0 Over run when playing on the road versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Boston has scored 122 or more points themselves in 7 of their last ten games. This one gets Over the number rather easily. |
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11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia |
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11-27-22 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Unders have been cash money in the NFL this year hitting at 57% with an average total points scored sitting at 43.8 points. This one is nearly 3 full points above that number and we just don’t see it. Green Bay has struggled offensively all season long. They rank 26th in points scored per game at 18.4 and their games are averaging 40 total points per game. The Pack have scored on just 29% of their offensive possessions this season which is the 2nd worst mark in the NFL behind only Denver. They are facing a Philly defense that has given up 17 points or fewer in 7 of their 10 games this season. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense has been trending downward. They have scored just 38 total points in their last 2 games while averaging just 289 YPG (vs Washington & Indy). Both teams will be looking to run often here as the defensive weakness of each team is stopping the run. Philly runs the ball 51% of the time (5th most in the NFL) and GB is not very good at stopping the run. The Packers have leaned on the running game more as of late rolling up over 200 yards rushing in 2 of their last 4 games. Running the ball will eat clock and shorten this game. Green Bay is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (29th) and the Eagles are middle of the pack in that category. The extended forecast calls for rain in Philly on Sunday and we like this one to land Under the total. |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG. |
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11-27-22 | Falcons +4 v. Commanders | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM ET - It’s interesting to note that despite Washington having a winning record and the Falcons a losing one, their +/- point differential is nearly the same. In fact, Atlanta ranks higher than Washington in overall DVOA rankings. Three of the Falcons 6 losses this season have come by 4 or less points, four of six have come by 6-points or less. Washington is coming off a 13-point win over Houston after a huge upset in Philadelphia the week before. On the season the Commanders have six wins but 4 of those have come by 6-points or less. In terms of yards per play, the Falcons average 5.6YPP offensively and give up 6.0YPP. Washington averages just 5.5YPP on offense and gives up 5.1YPP. The Falcons ball control offense that features a rushing attack averaging 159.3RYPG should be able to keep this game close throughout. Washington is 6-4-1 ATS their last eleven when coming off a win but their average Margin of Victory in those games is -2.4PPG. Atlanta is 9-6 ATS their last 15 when coming off a loss with a negative differential of -1.1PPG. This one shapes up to be a field goal game for either team so we’ll grab the points. |
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11-26-22 | Thunder v. Rockets +2 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#126 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This seems like a line most would grab Oregon based on the situation. The Ducks are playing for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game yet only favored by a FG vs OSU. We actually think it’s a tough spot for Oregon as they’ve come off back to back emotional, down to the wire games the last 2 weeks. They were upended by Washington 37-34 when the Huskies scored 2 TDs in the final 3:10 to get the win. Last week Oregon played host to Utah and picked up a tight 20-17 win but the Utes had plenty of chances to get the W but had 3 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs 3 times in Oregon territory. Three huge games in a row can be really tough on a team and we have a feeling the Ducks struggle here. Their QB Nix is really banged up right now and didn’t look even close to 100% last week. OSU is flying under the radar right now. Despite getting very little publicity, this team is 8-3 and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Beavers had one bad game this year vs Utah in which they outgained the Utes but turned the ball over 4 times including a pick 6. Other than that, their other 2 losses were by 3 points vs USC and by 3 points @ Washington. They run the ball very well (194 YPG) and their defense is sneaky good ranking 25th nationally. OSU has beaten the Ducks 2 of the last 3 times in Corvallis and they’d like nothing better than to ruin Oregon’s Pac 12 title hopes. We like OSU + the points and think they have a great shot at the upset. |
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11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
#132 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Iowa -10.5 over Nebraska, Friday at 4 PM ET - A win here sends Iowa to the Big 10 Championship game representing the West division. We can’t imagine Nebraska will be hyped to play this game. They are out of bowl consideration and put everything into last week’s home finale vs Wisconsin and lost 15-14 when the Badgers scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining. It’s not as if the Huskers dominated the game and blew it at the end. They were very fortunate to be in it as they gained only 171 total yards and were outgained by 147 yards. The Nebraska offense has been shut down over the last month scoring 9, 13, 3, and 14 points their last 4 games. The last 2 weeks they were held under 175 total yards vs both Wisconsin and Michigan. Now they face an Iowa defense that is every bit as good as those 2 stop units so we expect very little, if anything, out of the Nebraska offense. So we’re laying double digits with an Iowa offense that has struggled most of the year. Can they do enough to get this cover? We think so. Taking a close look at their schedule, Iowa’s offense has played one of the tougher slates of opposing defenses this season. 6 of the 11 defenses they’ve faced are ranked in the top 15 nationally. All but 2 of the defenses the Hawkeyes have faced rank inside the top 35. The 2 defenses they’ve played that were not good were Northwestern (72nd ranked defense) and Nevada (96th ranked defense) and they put up 33 and 27 points in those 2 contests. On Friday they face a Nebraska defense that ranks 108th which is the worst Iowa has played this season. Iowa’s offense has looked much better down the stretch averaging 24 PPG over their last 4 vs defenses much better than Nebraska’s. If they get to that here, we think the cover. Big disparity on defense and in “want to” here in favor of Iowa so we’ll lay it. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#120 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Missouri +4 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Arkansas last weekend in what was a huge game for them. They were home dogs and needed to beat Ole Miss to clinch bowl eligibility. They did just that and now they are on the road in a potential letdown spot. Despite the win last week, the Razors defense has some serious deficiencies. The offense played great but the defense allowed 700 yards to the Rebs. They currently rank 121st in total defense and on the road they are 2-2 on the season allowing 32 PPG. They haven’t played a very tough road slate despite their 2-2 record beating Auburn & BYU while losing @ Mississippi State and @ Texas A&M, whose season has been a disaster. In fact, A&M’s only conference win this year was at home vs Arkansas. Mizzou is in a similar situation to the Razors last week. They are 5-6 and have to win this game to get to a bowl. Their defense, unlike Arkansas, has been very good ranking 30th nationally so we’re getting a desperate home underdog with the much better defense. The Tigers are 4-2 at home this year with tight 4 point losses to Georgia & Kentucky. No other team has played to within 10 points of UGA this year. While Arkansas was putting all of their time and energy into beating LSU to reach 6 wins last week, Missouri had a “semi” bye beating New Mexico State bad and you can bet they were also preparing for this game in the week leading up to that. These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules and their stats are pretty close with Mizzou +0.1 YPP and +25 YPG while Arkansas is -0.1 YPP and +16 YPG. The host has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series and this one is much more important for the Tigers. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Patriots 6-3 SU their last nine games but only 2 of those wins have come against a team with a winning record and that’s the Jets. The other 4 wins in that stretch come against teams with a combined 14-26 SU record. That ties into the fact the Pats have played the 21st easiest schedule according to our rankings. In contrast, the Vikings are 8-2 SU on the year, yet have faced the 9th toughest schedule to date. We can bang on the Vikings all we want but the fact of the matter is they’ve found ways to win. 3 of their last four wins have been quality W’s with victories over 7-3 Dolphins, 7-3 Bills and the 6-5 Redskins. New England is 4th in the league in YPG allowed and 6th in yards per play allowed at 4.9. But again, how much of that is a byproduct of playing the Steelers, Jets twice, Colts who rank 26th or worse in yards per play gained. Minnesota doesn’t have impressive overall statistics with an offense that averages 5.3 yards per play and 338YPG but they’ve also faced some of the leagues better defenses. Home/road numbers support the Vikings. Minnesota has a net +0.3 yards per play differential at home, the Pats are negative at minus -0.4. Minnesota had won 3 straight at home prior to an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys last week so expect a rebound here. |
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11-23-22 | Mavs v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Dating back to the start of last season these are two of the three best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss with Dallas going 31-13 SU, Boston 29-14 SU. Boston though is 15-6 ATS their last 21 when coming off a loss and considering how poorly they played against the Bulls last time out they should be highly focused here. The Celtics are coming off Monday's 121-107 loss to the Chicago Bulls which snapped a nine-game winning streak. In those 9 wins the Celtics average Margin of Victory was +11.4PPG. The Bulls loss was frustrating considering the Celtics committed 15 turnovers and shot just 43.7% as a team. Dallas is coming off a loss to Denver and a 5-game home stretch which saw them go 2-3 SU. The Mavericks are just 1-4 SU away from home and have played a soft schedule to date. When the Mavs have faced an above .500 team they are just 2-7 ATS. Dallas has some misleading defensive numbers as they allow just 105.3PPG on the season (1st) but teams shoot 47.1% from the field versus them, 35.8% from deep (15th). The biggest reason the Mavs don’t allow a ton of points is the slow pace they play at (slowest in the NBA). Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.190-points per possession and the 5th best overall shooting percentage (48.4%) and 3rd best 3PT%. Boston also owns a +/- at home of +8.7PPG. |
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11-23-22 | Blazers v. Cavs OVER 213 | Top | 96-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 213 Points - Portland Trailblazers vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are betting value here as this number has been set to low, AGAIN. We successfully played Under in the Blazers/Bucks game on Monday night and this is nearly the exact same setup as that game. The Cavaliers are similar to the Bucks in defensive efficiency but much better in OEFF as they average 1.162-poins per possession. Granted the Cavs play slower than the Bucks but again, they make up for it by being highly efficient. Proof is in the numbers as the Cavs average 115PPG, compared to the Bucks 111PPG. The Blazers defense has allowed their last five opponents to average over 50% shooting and the Cavs have averaged better than 50% in their last five games. Portland games this season have averaged 218.3PPG, Cavs games have averaged 223.85PPG. This is one of the lowest O/U numbers posted on a Portland game this season and the 2nd lowest on a Cavs game. This game is going to be closer to a league average game of 225.2-points, not 214. Both teams are trending in the right direction for an Over here as both teams games are averaging 226+ in their last five. |
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11-23-22 | Denver v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 134.5 | Top | 86-64 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
#691/692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – IUPUI vs Denver, Wednesday at 5 PM ET - One terrible offense and one not so great offense should lead to a low scoring game here. IUPUI is averaging just 51 PPG on the season (dead last in the nation) and their 4 games so far on the year have averaged 121 total points. It’s not as if they’ve been playing a slate of great defenses, this team just can’t shoot ranking 363rd in 3 point percentage (19%) and 359th in overall FG% (out of 363 teams). Their high scoring effort was 59 points vs Franklin College and their top effort vs a D1 school was 58 vs Chicago State who ranks dead last in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Denver is better on the offensive end but it’s not like this is a good shooting team either. The Pioneers are decent offensively inside the arc, however from 3-point land they rank 360th hitting just 22% of their shots. Thus, in this game we have 2 of the 4 worst three point shooting teams in the nation which will make it really tough to get to this number. As you would expect, neither attempts many 3’s ranking 358th and 362nd in percentage of points scored from deep. Neither team shoots FT’s very well (60% and 66%) and they aren’t adept at offensive rebounding so we don’t see many second chance points. With Denver favored by 11 in this game the projected final score is right around 73-62. As we stated, IUPUI hasn’t gotten to 60 points yet this season and if we subtract Denver’s game vs Colorado College, they are averaging 69 PPG. Under is the call here. |
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11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 227.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Suns are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season at 97 possessions per game but they are 9th in PPG averaged at 115.1PPG. A big reason the Suns put up points is their overall shooting as they rank 10th in overall FG% and 6th in 3PT%. The Lakers though have the 12th best FG% defense in the league, 4th in defending the 3-point line. The Lakers are going to have their own problems scoring against this Suns defense that ranks 8th in defensive efficiency at 1.105PPP allowed per possession. Los Angeles is 19th in scoring at 111.1PPG are 21st in team FG% and 30th in 3-point shooting. The Under has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings and we predict a lower scoring game here. |
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11-22-22 | Liberty +4.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#667 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty +4.5 over Northwestern, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - The Flames are coming off an upset loss at home vs Southern Miss on Friday and we like them to bounce back in this neutral site game (Rivera Maya, Mexico) vs Northwestern. It was a game where Liberty came out flat and got way behind before coming back and having a chance late but losing by 4. It was a disappointing performance for a veteran team that may have been peeking ahead to their trip to Mexico. Liberty returns 7 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that won the Atlantic Sun and finished with a record of 22-11. That includes 2-time conference player of the year guard Darrius McGhee (25 PPG) who spurned Power 5 transfer offers to finish out his career with Liberty. Head coach Ritchie McCay has built a very good program @ Liberty after coming over from New Mexico back in 2008. He has led the Flames to 6 consecutive 20 win seasons. In their Hawaii tourney last year, Liberty with basically this same team, beat a very good Northern Iowa team who won the Missouri Valley, lost by 3 vs Stanford (blew a 13 point lead), and lost by 5 vs BYU who finished with a 24-11 record. This team is experience and battle tested. Northwestern steps into this game with a 4-0 record but we think they are overvalued at this point. We have them tabbed for 12th in the Big 10 this year after finishing 7-13 in league play last year. In their most recent game they held off IPFW at home winning by 8 after leading by just 1 points with just over 2:00 remaining in the game. Liberty is a solid shooting team that finished in the top 35 nationally from both inside and outside the arc last year while also making 77% of their FT’s. They’ve gotten off to a little slower start this year but still shooting well ranking 80th in eFG%. We think they’ll give NW big problems in this game and we actually have this game rated dead even. Value on Liberty Tuesday evening. |
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11-21-22 | Blazers v. Bucks OVER 214 | Top | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 Portland Trailblazers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - We are betting value here as this number has been set to low as a result of Damian Lillard’s injury tonight. As soon as Lillard was ruled out with a calf injury this number dipped by 3-full points. Portland games this season have averaged 218.3PPG, Bucks games have averaged 217.5PPG. This is the lowest O/U number posted on a Portland game this season and the 2nd lowest on a Bucks game. Milwaukee just played a game against the 76ers and the O/U was 212.5 and the 76ers are worse defensively and offensively than the Blazers and play at a similar pace. This game is going to be closer to a league average game of 225.2-points, not 214. Both teams are trending in the right direction for an Over here as both teams games are averaging 220+ in their last five. |
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11-21-22 | Ducks v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
#45/46 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Anaheim Ducks at St Louis Blues, Monday at 8 PM ET - These teams just met here on Saturday and the game totaled 8 goals and it was no fluke. The game was 5-1 through 2 periods and there were 5 even-strength goals in the game and both teams registered more than 30 shots on goal. The point is we like what we saw and we expect a repeat here in terms of another high-scoring game. St Louis has now won 6 straight games and scored at least 4 goals in 4 of the 6 games. Before the 6-game win streak the Blues had lost 8 in a row and in 5 of the last 6 defeats they allowed at least 5 goals. You can see why we are expecting a lot of goals here no matter which way the ice ends up being tilted in this one! Also, the Blues have had 8 home games this season and all but two of them totaled at least 7 goals and one of the two that did not reach 7 did make it to the 6-goal mark and that is the total posted on this game Monday. Anaheim has a poor record this season but does have some skilled forwards and team speed and will look to utilize that better here than they did in Saturday's road loss. The Ducks have now played 11 road games this season and 8 of them have reached at least the 6-goal mark. We feel we have excellent line value with this total available at 6 goals. Anaheim's average road game this season has totaled 7.6 goals per game. The Blues average home game has totaled 7.5 goals per game! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 6 PM ET - The Utes are coming off a home loss in a game they were favored so we look for a strong bounce back effort here in Fort Myers. That loss vs Sam Houston State isn’t looking as bad as many may think as SHSU is not a perfect 4-0 on the season and they also have a win @ Oklahoma. Utah returns all 5 starters from last season and they added a few transfers including F Ben Carlson from Wisconsin who will help up front. Georgia Tech is coming off a 12-20 season and while they are 3-0 this year, they haven’t played a team ranked higher than 224th. In that game vs 224th ranked Georgia State, who lost all 5 starters and is projected near the bottom of the Sun Belt, the Yellow Jackets squeaked out a 2 point win. Tech loses their top 2 players from last season, DeVoe and Usher who combined to average over 33 PPG, and they are left with very little experience. In their 3 games thus far the Jackets have shot the ball poorly with an eFG% 42.7% (324th nationally) and those numbers come vs lower level competition. Now they face a Utah defense, that has plenty of size inside and had held their opponents this season to an eFG% of 38.2% which is good for 8th best in the country. The Utes also have a nice size advantage and should control the glass vs a Tech team that has allowed their first 3 opponents to gather nearly 36% of their offensive boards which ranks the Jackets 314th in defensive rebounding. And those numbers came vs teams that are nowhere near the size of Utah. Most projections have Georgia Tech finishing dead last in the ACC after finishing 2nd to last a year ago. We like Utah here. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -120 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys PK -120 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The oddsmakers and market are telling us something here. Dallas is favored @ Minnesota despite losing @ Green Bay last week, while the Vikings were upsetting Buffalo on the road. The Vikings have just 1 loss on the season and are undefeated at home yet Dallas is favored and the line has moved very little. We like the Cowboys to win this one. They will be motivated after losing in OT last week and this is a huge game for them as they sit in 3rd place in the NFC East behind Philly and NY Giants. Meanwhile Minnesota has a huge lead in the NFC North with Green Bay and their 7 losses sitting in 2nd place. The Vikings simply aren’t as good as their record might indicate. They’ve been fortunate going 7-0 SU in one score games and they are #2 in the NFL in turnover margin. In they key YPP margin metric they rank 23rd and Minny is getting outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis despite their 8-1 record. They are undefeated at home but those wins have come vs Arizona, Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit who have a combined 14-26 record. Dallas should be fresh as they had a bye leading into their GB game and despite their loss last Sunday, they’ve covered 13 of the last 18 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Boys have a big edge defensively (allowing 0.8 YPP less than Minnesota) and should be edgy on that side of the ball after a poor performance last weekend. We like Dallas to get the win and cover on Sunday. |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#359 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on the Pats a few weeks ago when they traveled to NY to face the Jets. New England was -3 in that game and won 22-17 but we were a bit fortunate as they Jets outplayed them. NY has 100 more yards and averaged nearly 3.0 YPP more per snap than the Patriots. The Jets made some key mistakes with 3 TO’s, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs inside the Patriot 30 yard line. After being favored by a FG on the road, this line is very telling with New England now only 3.5 at home just a few weeks later. The Jets are better offensively (5.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP), better defensively (4.8 YPP allowed to 5.2 YPP allowed) and they’ve played the tougher schedule thus far per Football Outsiders (2nd highest SOS to 17th for New England). New York steps into this game with some serious momentum winning 5 of their last 6 games including a win over Buffalo in their most recent game prior to their bye last week. Their defense has been fantastic holding their last 6 opponents to an average of 15 PPG with 5 of those teams scoring under their season average. The Patriots offense ranks 26th in the NFL and in their meeting a few weeks ago NY held them to just 288 despite the loss. New England is also off a bye and Belichick was once great off a bye with Brady at QB. However, in his 2 years without Brady as his QB, the Pats lost both of their games off their bye week vs lower tier QB’s Drew Lock and Carson Wentz. NY is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this year and they get their revenge here after drastically outplaying New England a few weeks ago. Take +3.5. |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers -4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
#400 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is an absolute flat spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels are now officially out of the SEC West race (LSU will play in the Championship Game) after losing 30-24 at home to Alabama last Saturday. They had a shot at the win pushing to the Alabama 14 yard line with under 1:00 minute remaining but were shut out on downs. Going on the road after that disappointment will be tough especially since they have a home game vs arch rival Mississippi State next on Thanksgiving Day. Not to mention, Ole Miss has only played one decent team on the road this season and that was @ LSU where they were rolled 45-20. The Rebels other road games this season came vs Georgia Tech, Vandy, and Texas A&M who all have losing records. On the other side, this is a HUGE home game for Arkansas. They need one more win for bowl eligibility and this is their final home game. Last week we were on the Razors and found out right before kickoff (along with everyone else) that starting QB Jefferson was being held out of the game. Despite that, Arkansas gave a great effort and nearly knocked off LSU losing 13-10 (Arkansas did get the cover). With Jefferson in the lineup, we’re fairly confident the Razorbacks would have won that game. He has been practicing all week and will be back in the line up on Saturday according to head coach Pittman. Not only is this the home finale, but it’s a game Arkansas has had circled after losing 52-51 @ Ole Miss last year failing on a 2 point conversion with no time left on the clock. The Razors also fall into a very strong system which is conference home underdogs coming off back to back home losses (so playing their 3rd straight home game) are 68-41 ATS over the last 40+ seasons. Arkansas is a very dangerous home dog here with a lot to play for and we’ll call for the upset |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL -2 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -2 over Providence, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Miami returns 5 of their top 8 players from a team that made it to the Elite 8 last season. On the other side, Providence must replace all 5 starters from last season and the Friars have played 2 teams ranked outside the top 250 and the one team they played ranked inside the top 200 (Rider at 194th) they struggled with winning by 1 point at home. Miami has also played a weak schedule but they’ve won all of their games by double digits. Despite their weak schedule, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from 3 point land which will be an issue facing a Miami team that scored over 38% of their points from deep (56th nationally) and the Canes shoot it well from beyond the arc (36%). Providence is 3-0 because they’ve shot a whopping 53 more free throws than their first 3 opponents, however, Miami has been very good at not sending teams to the FT line (69th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage at the stripe for the Friars which they are used to. Miami is the better team here and laying under 3 on a neutral gives us value with the Canes. Lay the small number. |
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11-19-22 | Houston v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 42-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
#354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -5.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - These teams are both 6-4 on the season but ECU is the much better team. This is the Pirates first home game in nearly a month and their home finale. ECU is coming off a game where they completely outplayed Cincinnati on the road, a Bearcats team that is currently tied for first place in the AAC. In that game the Pirates lost 27-25 but outgained Cincy by +144 total yards. The Pirates also beat UCF by 21 points so they outplayed the top 2 teams in the conference while Houston didn’t have to face Cincy or Central Florida. ECU has actually outgained every opponent but one this season and they are +80 YPG on the season. Houston struggled at home to beat a bad Temple team last Saturday. The Cougars were outgained in that game and scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining in the game to win by a TD vs a 3-7 Temple team. Houston’s YPG differential on the season is just +13 and they’ve been overvalued all season long with a 3-7 ATS record losing to the number by a combined 55 points or an average of 5.5 PPG. ECU, on the other hand, is 7-3 ATS and has covered 3 straight by a combined 35 points. ECU’s top 20 offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, passing defense, and PPG allowed. The Pirates average 35 PPG at home this season with a scoring margin of +12.5 PPG and Houston allows 39.5 PPG on the road. Last year these 2 met in Houston and while the Cougars pulled out a win on OT, they were outgained by over 100 yards by ECU. The Pirates should be highly motivated here in their final home game, we like them to win this by more than a TD. |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans +3 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans. |
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11-18-22 | Colorado State v. College of Charleston -115 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON College of Charleston -115 over Colorado State, Friday at 5 PM ET - Alright we’re going back to the well again today. Last night we were on C of C over Davidson and picked up a big 89-66 win. Today the Cougars face off against Colorado State who also is coming off a big win over South Carolina which is giving us some value here on the home team (this is a tournament but played on Charleston’s home court). CSU rolled over South Carolina last night, however while that may look extremely impressive beating an SEC team, we have the Gamecocks picked for last in the SEC this year after losing all 5 starters from a year ago and they have a new coach working on a new system both offensively and defensively. Charleston should do well in a tournament setting playing multiple games in multiple days as they rotate 10 guys throughout the game. They have 9 guys averaging double digit minutes this season. They were +16 on the boards last night as we projected and should control the glass again tonight. The Cougs ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and they are currently 28th this season while Colorado State is 328th on the offensive glass. The Rams have played a fairly weak schedule to date (290th) and prior to last night’s big win they struggled to beat Gardner Webb at home (won by 2) and only beat a terrible SE Louisiana team (ranked 321st) by 11 points. As we touched on last night, Charleston’s only loss this season was @ #1 ranked UNC in a game they led in the 2nd half. They have one close win vs a solid Richmond team in a game they led by 21 with 14 minutes remaining but let the Spiders back in it. They learned their lesson last night as they pushed out to a big win vs Davidson and then buried them not letting the Wildcats back in the game. CSU shot the lights out last night hitting nearly 60% of their shots and 72% of their 2 point attempts. We just don’t see that happening again tonight and we’ll side with the host to win this one. |
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11-17-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-130 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio. |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 41 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -107 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Not idea weather conditions in GB on Thursday night with cold temps in low 20’s with a wind chill in the teens and 15 MPH winds. The Tennessee offense continues to struggle ranking dead last in offensive YPG. The only team they’ve outgained this year in Houston who ranks 29th in total offense. The Titans haven’t gotten to 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging a league low 24 yards per drive. They run the ball as much as anyone with 54% of their plays coming on the ground and that won’t change here vs a Packer defense whose weakness is vs the run. GB’s offense looked much better last week vs Dallas putting up 28 in regulation with almost 25% of their total yards coming on 2 big TD passes from Rodgers to rookie WR Watson. We’re still not sold on this GB offense that was averaging just 12.5 PPG offensively (minus defensive points) the previous 4 games including just 9 points vs a terrible Detroit defense. The Titan defense has held 6 straight opponents to 17 points or fewer in regulation including a KC offense that ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring. These are 2 very slow paced teams as well ranking 29th (GB) and 32nd (Tenn) in tempo so we don’t expect many offensive plays in this one. On top of that, both teams will lean on their running game which eats clock. We think there is a solid chance neither team gets over 20 points here so we like the UNDER. |
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11-17-22 | Davidson v. College of Charleston -2 | Top | 66-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2 over Davidson, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is part of the Charleston Classic Tournament which is being played on C of C’s home court so this is a home game for them. We were on the Cougars a few nights ago laying 2.5 points at home vs Richmond but lost by a half point when they won by 2 in OT. Now we’re laying less here (currently -1) vs a Davidson team we have power rated lower than Richmond. Ken Pom agrees with us as he has Davidson rated nearly 30 spots lower than Richmond. We like the value on this still underrated Charleston team. In their win vs Richmond earlier this week, the Cougars actually led by double digits for much of the way including a 21 point lead with 14 minutes remaining in the game. It was a game they should have won easily and they’ll learn from blowing that lead and keep their foot on the gas here. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). That will be an issue for depth shy teams and Davidson is one of those as they basically have a 7 man rotation. Another glaring weakness for Davidson is rebounding as they’ve been out boarded in all 3 of their games this season vs VMI, Wright State, AND tiny Guilford College. C of C is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation ranking 58th this season in offensive boards after ranking 10th last year in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities for the Cougars. Their lone loss this season was at #1 North Carolina in a game Charleston led midway through the 2nd half and outrebounded UNC. In Davidson’s lone road game this year, they were down 21 points vs Wright State and had to battle back and picked up a fortunate win in OT. They followed that up with a 4 point win over VMI at home, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. They could easily have 2 losses in their first 3 games under new head coach Matt McKillop who took over for his father after Bob McKillop retired at the end of last season. Tough match up for Davidson here and we’ll take College of Charleston to win at home. |
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11-16-22 | San Francisco v. Fresno State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
#703/704 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points, San Francisco vs Fresno State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - San Fran wants to play fast but Fresno is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation, this year and last year, so we expect them to get the slower tempo at home. The Bulldogs are also one of the best defensive teams in the nation last year allowing just 59 PPG (4th nationally) and this year they’ve allowed 56 & 61 points in their 2 games. Their most recent game vs a very solid UCSB team was on pace for well under 100 points (23-21 at halftime) and despite some scrambling and fouling late (18 points in the final 3 minutes) they still only hit 115 total points. SF has played 2 games as well (minus their game vs Cal Merced which tells us nothing) and they’ve had 2 glaringly different results. One was vs a very fast paced Texas State team which was high scoring and San Fran hit 60% of their shots. The other was vs a Cal Poly team that is slow paced, similar to Fresno, and plays decent defense but not at the level of the Bulldogs. That game totaled 108 points. These 2 met last year and the total was set at 128 and now we’re in the mid 130’s which is too high. In that game the 2 combined by for 134 points with San Francisco winning 71-63. After holding SF to just 24 points in the first half of that game, Fresno allowed the Dons to roll up 47 in the 2nd half which was one of their worst halves defensively of the season and it still stayed Under the total that is set for tonight. We expect FSU to slow this game to a crawl and play very well defensively at home. SF’s defense is no slouch either ranking in the top 50 last year in eFG% allowed and they are ranked 45th in that stat early on this season. Under is the play. |
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11-16-22 | Rockets +9.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here. |
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11-15-22 | Memphis v. St. Louis -2.5 | Top | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2.5 over Memphis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Billikens have been waiting for this one. Last year they finished with a 23-12 record and one of their worst losses of the season was @ Memphis 90-74. SLU actually attempted 22 more shots in that game but couldn’t hit the broadside making just 31% (Memphis hit 54%) and from beyond the arc only 23% (Memphis made 47%). While St Louis returns 5 players that started at least 16 games last year + they get Perkins back from injury (17 PPG in 2020/21 season), Memphis only has 3 players returning out of the 10 that played double digit minutes in last year’s game vs the Billikens. The Tigers have a number of transfers they are trying to incorporate which will take some time and they’ve only played 1 game so far this season. That was a 9-point win @ Vandy which doesn’t look all that impressive after the Commodores followed that loss up with another home 12-point setback vs Southern Miss who is projected by most to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. St Louis also added a veteran transfer from Missouri, Pickett, who averaged 11 PPG in the SEC last season and has scored 24 in his 2 games for SLU this year. They also have one of the more unheralded point guards in the nation in Yuri Collins who is drawing the attention of NBA scouts. St Louis was banged up last year with their top scorer Perkins on the shelf and a few other key players in and out of the line up and they still finished with a very good record. 8 of their 12 losses last year were by 7 points or less and now they are full strength and an undervalued team early in the season. With the short spread they may need to salt this one away at the FT line late and they can do just that hitting 80% from the stripe as a team this season after 77% a year ago. Huge home game for SLU and we’ll lay it. |
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11-15-22 | San Diego State v. Stanford +5.5 | Top | 74-62 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford +5.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We think this Stanford team is undervalued to start the season. They are 1-1 with a win over Pacific and a loss vs a Wisconsin team that is much better than many think. In their game vs Wisconsin, which was in Milwaukee, the Cardinal were 4 point dogs and now they are getting 5 or 5.5 at home vs San Diego State in this game. We have this one powered to SDSU as a 2 point favored so the value is on Stanford. In their 60-50 loss vs the Badgers, the shooting lines at AmFam Field in Milwaukee (home of the Brewers) were horrible and it showed in the shooting percentages. Stanford shot just 36% and they were 1 of 16 from beyond the arc for 6%! We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit 60% of their shots in the opener vs Pacific. Stanford returns 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year and add one of the top 3 point shooters in the country, Michael Jones, who averaged 12 PPG for Davidson last year. SDSU is very solid and one of the favorites in the MWC but a bit overvalued in our opinion. They just faced BYU, who we have power rated almost the same as Stanford, at home and while the Aztecs won by 8, they trailed for most of the game taking their first lead in the 2nd half with just over 4:00 remaining. The Aztecs had a huge edge at the FT line making 26 freebies to just 10 for BYU. That was a big revenge game for San Diego State after losing to BYU 66-60 last season. Now SDSU makes their first road trip of the season and they might be looking ahead to their trip to Hawaii for the Maui Classic up next. Not a great spot vs a solid team off a loss. Take the points with Stanford at home tonight. |
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11-15-22 | Clippers +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers. |
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11-15-22 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
#23/24 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Brian Elliott is the back-up goalie for the Lightning and he is expected to get the start here. He has not played in a week and a half. Also, he is facing a surging Dallas team that has scored 4 or more goals in 5 of 6 games. During this run, the Stars have averaged 4.7 goals scored per game. Dallas is off a 5-1 win but allowing just 1 goal is very unusual for this Stars team. In fact, Dallas had allowed an average of 3.7 goals per game last 6 games before the big win over Flyers. The last 7 Stars games have totaled at least 6 goals. Dallas has scored an average of 4.4 goals per game in its last 7 games. The Lightning, however, are on home ice and they have been scoring plenty of goals lately too! Tampa Bay has gone 7-4 last 11 games and 9 of their last 10 games have totaled at least 6 goals! Those 10 games have seen the Bolts and their opponents average scoring 7 goals per game. Both teams have been solid on the power play early this season too! Also, Dallas has been scoring about 4 goals per game on the season and 3 of the 4 starts Lightning back-up goalie Elliott has made have totaled at least 8 goals! Tampa Bay has averaged 4 goals scored per game last 6 games at home. Over is our play here. |
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11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#265/266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Philly defense is one of the best in the NFL allowing just 4.7 YPP (2nd) and they are facing a Washington offense that averages just 4.9 YPP (28th). The Commanders are averaging just 17 PPG on the season and they have topped that number just ONCE in their last 7 games. Over that 7 game stretch Washington is averaging just 14.8 PPG and one of those games was vs Philadelphia who held them to 8 points. The only TD Washington scored in that first meeting with the Eagles – a 24-8 loss – was with under 2 minutes remaining in the game. While the Commanders offense has been poor, their defense has been quite respectable. They have not allowed more than 21 points in any of their last 5 games with 4 of those going Under the total. The key to slowing down the Eagles offense is to limit their potent rushing attack and Washington is very solid vs the run. In the first meeting this year, the Commanders held Philadelphia to 72 yards rushing which makes them the only defense this season to hold the Eagles under 100 yards on the ground. They also held them to 24 points which is the 2nd lowest total for Philly this year. The Eagles have a tendency to get a lead in the first half and then eat clock in the 2nd half, shortening the game. To that point, Philly leads the NFL averaging 21 PPG in the first and but only put up 8 PPG in the 2nd. We anticipate this type of game tonight with the Eagles laying 11 points, we like them to get out to a lead and then eat clock in the 2nd half. Since the start of the 2020 season, these 2 have met 5 times and scored an average of 38 points in those games with none topping 44. We like the Under tonight. |
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11-14-22 | Suns +2 v. Heat | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss. |
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11-14-22 | Hornets +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here. |
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11-14-22 | Richmond v. College of Charleston -2.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight. |
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11-13-22 | Nets v. Lakers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 Brooklyn Nets @ LA Lakers, 9:40 PM ET - With it being NFL Sunday this is going to be an abbreviated analysis. Since Irvings suspension the Nets defense has been outstanding. Brooklyn has allowed 86, 94, 96, 85 and 95-points in five games. Their defensive efficiency on the season is 8th best at 1.105-points allowed per possession but in their last five games that number improves to .967PPP. Brooklyn is the 6th slowest paced team in the league and 12th in offensive efficiency. The Lakers are bad! LA is LAST in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.054PPP (slightly behind the Clippers who Brooklyn just held to 95Pts). The Lakers don’t have a clear identity right now when it comes to pace of play as they tend to play fast with other fast teams, then slow with grinding teams. LA is 29th in PPG scored, 25th in FG% and 30th in 3PT%. Even after the line move in this game we still like UNDER. |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers UNDER 43 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Green Bay’s offense is struggling mightily and now they face off against the best defense in the NFL per Football Outsiders DVOA. The Packers are averaging just 12.5 PPG over their last 4 games (minus defensive points) and they have not topped 17 points offensively during that stretch. Aaron Rodgers has no weapons on the outside and they continue to be banged up at WR with Doubs out along with Watkins and Lazard questionable. On top of that RB Jones is questionable and 3 of their 4 starting offensive lineman didn’t practice on Wednesday. In all, 8 of Green Bay’s 11 starting offensive players missed practice or were very limited this week. There is also not enough being made about Rodgers thumb injury as he has been missing practice and his numbers have plummeted since getting hurt. Prior to the thumb injury he was completing 68% of his passes with 11 TDs, 3 interceptions and a passer rating of 95. After the injury his numbers are 61% completion rate with 6 TDs, 4 interceptions and a passer rating of 81. If Green Bay could only score 9 points last week vs a Detroit defense ranked dead last in YPP allowed at 6.4 how are they going to score points vs Dallas who gives up 4.8 YPP? On the other side, we expect Dallas to run the ball a lot eating clock here. They run the ball almost 48% of the time (8th in the NFL) and teams are running on GB over 50% of the time (most in the NFL) because they struggle to stop the run (26th in the NFL). Same could be said with GB’s offense. Dallas weakness defensively is stopping the run and with all of the injuries the Packers have out wide, they will run as much as possible. On top of that, Dallas is #1 in the NFL in sack differential at +21 so they can put pressure on the QB which is bad news for Rodgers if the Packers abandon the running game which we have a hard time believing they will. Both defenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL vs the pass this season as well. Cold temps in Green Bay on Sunday with highs in the mid 30’s and 10 MPH winds. These teams are a combined 11-5-1 on the year to the UNDER with Green Bay games averaging 38 total points and Dallas games averaging 40 total points. This one should be lower scoring and we’ll grab the UNDER |
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11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins OVER 49 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Two of the better offenses in the NFL facing off here with the Browns ranking 4th and the Dolphins 5th in total offense. Football Outsiders DVOA ranks these 2 offenses 2nd (Miami) and 5th (Cleveland) while they have the defenses ranked 24th and 27th. Cleveland is coming off a bye following their 32 points output vs a very good Cincinnati defense. We expect them to have a great offensive gameplan with 2 weeks to get ready and they are facing a Miami defense that has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The Fins are allowing opponents to score an average of 2.2 points per drive which is 26th in the NFL. The Miami offense is humming with Tua back under center. They are averaging 24 PPG on the season, however in games that Tua starts and completes the Fins are putting up 29 PPG. The Browns defense has decent (middle of the pack) overall numbers however they’ve faced the 25th best schedule of offenses thus far. They’ve allowed at least 23 points in 6 of their 8 games and 30+ points in 3 games. Miami will be the highest rated offense Cleveland has faced this year. They’ve faced only 1 other team ranked inside the top 10 in total offense and that was the Chargers who put up 30 on this defense. Cleveland is allowed 2.21 points per drive which is 27th in the NFL. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 80’s and light winds at 5 MPH. The implied final score based on this total is right around Miami 26, Cleveland 23. We expect both to top those numbers. Over in this one. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
#181/182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points – Kansas State vs Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There seems to be huge games every single weekend in the Big 12 and this Saturday is no exception when Kansas State takes on Baylor. Big 12 games this season have averaged 60PPG and these two teams have a combined Over record of 10-2 in conference play. The O/U on this game currently sits at 52.5 which is the second lowest number set by the Oddsmakers this season on both teams. The only games these two teams have played in with a lower number was against Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, but also one of the best defensively. Looking closer at Baylor’s offense we see they’ve started to click with four straight games of 35+ points. The Bears have the 27th most efficient offense in college football, average 12.7 yards for every point scored (17th), 34.5PPG and 5.7-yards per play which is 43rd. Kansas State’s offense is 23rd in OEFF, average 6.2YPP (24th) and score 30.1PPG on the season. Baylor converts 44.25% of their 3rd downs and can extend drives. K-Stare has a red zone scoring percentage of 90.32% so when they get inside the 20-yards line they put up points. We are not ignoring the fact that the Wildcats have some solid defensive numbers, but they have also given up 34-points to Texas, 38 to TCU, 28 to Texas Tech and 34 to Oklahoma. The Bears are also good defensively, but they too have had a few lapses defensively allowing 35 to Oklahoma, 43 to West Virginia and 36 to Oklahoma State. Weather at game time in Waco looks perfect with temps in the 40’s and very light winds. This game gets to 59 or more points. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday. |
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11-11-22 | Kings v. Lakers OVER 231.5 | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - No LeBron tonight, no problem concerning this Over-Under. Let’s face it, LeBron tends to slow the offense at times as he’s very deliberate when he has the ball in his hands on the offensive end of the court. With him out of the lineup that means more time for Westbrook who pushes the tempo every chance he gets. The Lakers are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.3 possessions per game. Sacramento is 13th in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. The Kings have solid offensive numbers as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 9th in scoring at 115.9PPG and are the 7th best shooting team in the NBA. They should improve on their scoring numbers against a Lakers defense that is not good this season ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG given up at 116.1. Granted, the Lakers offense has not been good either this season, but they have a great opportunity to ‘get right’ tonight against a Kings D that is 25th in PPG allowed (117.1), 29th in both overall FG% and 3PT% defense and 25th in DEFF. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they produced 241 and 236 total points. Bet OVER! |
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11-11-22 | Stanford v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5 | Top | 50-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
#677/678 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – Stanford vs Wisconsin, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played at the home of the Brewers, American Family Field. This will be the first basketball game ever at the field and the back drop is terrible. Really no back drop at all behind the baskets which will make it very difficult to shoot well. This total is set a little high in our opinion due to Wisconsin’s first performance of the year where they scored 85 points vs South Dakota and Stanford’s first game of the year where they put up 88 at home vs Pacific. The Badgers hit over 50% of their shots on Monday night vs South Dakota and made 12 of their 26 three point attempts. Stanford hit 60% of their shots vs Pacific and went to the FT line 34 times. Now they’ll both be facing far superior defenses than they faced in their openers and neither will be at home where they tend to be comfortable shooting the ball. Wisconsin averaged 69.9 PPG last year ranking them 175th nationally and lost their top 2 scorers Johnny Davis & Brad Davison. They will take some time to find their footing offensively early in the season vs solid opponents. Stanford averaged just 64 PPG last year ranking them 274th. Both of these defenses allowed less than 70 PPG last season and after facing defenses in their first game of the season that ranked 254th (South Dakota) and 271st (Pacific) in scoring last year, this is a huge step up on that end of the court. Wisconsin has picked up their pace a bit over the last few season but they still ranked outside the top 250 in tempo last year and Stanford was middle of the pack so neither play at a really fast pace. We expect a halfcourt game here in which both teams struggle to shoot the ball in this non familiar basketball venue. Neither team gets to 70 here and we like the Under. |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time. |
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11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER! |
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11-09-22 | Jazz v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks. |
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11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
#12 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs -120 on the Money Line over Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - This is a great early season set-up filled with value. The Golden Knights are off to a great start this season but that has them over-valued here. Vegas has played a favorable early season schedule with 8 of 13 match-ups against non-playoff teams from last season. The Golden Knights have only 2 losses on the season but of their 5 games against playoff teams one was a win over these Maple Leafs and then the 2 losses came in the other 4 games. The point is that Vegas has not been so "lights out" against playoff teams from last season. The Golden Knights did beat the Leafs in Vegas however and that makes this a revenge game. We love this spot for Toronto to exact revenge. The Knights are on a long road trip and though they have been winning, the past two victories came despite allowing 4 goals in each game! That is not happening against Toronto. The Maple Leafs have been quite stingy this season so if they get to 4 goals scored they are likely winning this game handily. Toronto has won 5 of 6 home games this season and allowed 2 or less goals in all 5 victories! The surprise with Vegas this season is they have been getting better goaltending than expected. However, both Thompson and Hill are limited in NHL career experience and they each have allowed 4 goals in their most recent start on this road trip. That is why, no matter who is in goal for Vegas tonight, we like the home team to get the big win as they have been allowing a lot fewer goals than Toronto teams in the recent past. Lay it! We think we’re getting some nice value getting this revenge-minded home team at a great price of just -120 in this one with the Leafs as it is the perfect set-up for a home win. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it. |
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11-07-22 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season. |
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11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG). |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46 Points – Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Divisional Unders have been lights out this year hitting nearly 70% with a record of 27-12-1 to the Under. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL in this game with Buffalo ranking #4 in total defense and the Jets #6. Offensively the Jets have been poor with Zach Wilson at the helm. The Bills are top 5 in both sack percentage and sacks per game and Wilson has been terrible under pressure this season. He has the lowest passer rating when pressured in the entire NFL among starting QB’s. NY has scored just 33 total points the last 2 weeks vs New England and Denver. Now facing a top tier Buffalo defense that hasn’t allowed more than 21 points to anyone this season, we see the NY offense continuing to struggle. The Buffalo offense is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29 PPG however they got a huge jump on the season in that stat scoring 72 points in their first 2 games. Since then, Buffalo has gotten to 30 points just once in their last 5 games and they are averaging 26 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Jets defense that hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in any of their last 5 games and they are giving up only 15 PPG over that span. The Jets have gone Under the total in 3 straight games and Buffalo has gone Under 5 consecutive games. Jets games average 42 total points this season and Buffalo’s average 43 total points and this total is set at 47. These 2 teams have combined to play 15 games this season and only 4 have gone Over the total. Since 2019 these AFC East rivals have met 6 times and the average points scored in these games is 37. Only 1 of those 6 meetings has topped 44 points and 4 of the 6 have totaled 37 or less. Under is the play here. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 61 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – Baylor vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Baylor just continues to pile on points week after week and this OU offense is better than their season long numbers which are still quite good. The Bears are 15th nationally averaging 38.5 PPG and they’ve put up at least 30 in all but 2 of their 8 games this season. They should continue that success here vs an Oklahoma defense that has been a sieve all season long ranking 114th in total D. Throw out their first 3 games vs Kent, UTEP, and Nebraska, and this Sooner defense has allowed 41, 55, 49, 42, and 13 points in Big 12 play. Last week their defense looked like they may have played pretty well holding Iowa State to 13 points, however the Cyclones gained 374 total yards including 300+ through the air. That’s an ISU offense that ranks dead last in the Big12 in total offense and scoring. This week is a whole different animal vs a Baylor offense that ranks 3rd in the conference in both scoring and total offense. Oklahoma’s offense is averaging a more than respectable 33 PPG on the season. However, they played 2 games without their starting QB Gabriel and in his absence they scored only 24 total points in those 2 games. With Gabriel in the lineup, the Sooners are averaging 40 PPG! The Baylor defense stepped up last week holding Texas Tech to 17 points (45-17 final) but prior to that the Bears were allowing 31.5 PPG in league play. We’re getting some value with this total. Last week OU’s game at ISU had a total set at 58. Now only 3 points higher despite Baylor being MUCH better offensively and worse defensively with Iowa State ranking #1 in the conference in both total defense and scoring defense. Let’s take the Over in this one. |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 112-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 220 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great comparative opponent analysis here as the Pistons just faced the Bucks in two games who are very similar to the Cavs in terms of pace, offensive and defensive efficiency. In those two games the Bucks/Pistons totaled 207 and 218 total points. Cleveland has the 2nd best DEFF rating in the league allowing just 1.055-poins per possession and are the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA. The Pistons are 10th in pace, but have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the league. Cleveland is the ‘alpha’ team here and they’ll dictate tempo and keep this game from being high scoring. It looks like the Cavs may rest Donovan Mitchell here and his 31PPG will be missed. Last season, in the four meetings between these two teams they totaled 222 or less in all four. The bet here is UNDER. |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
#309/310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Eagles are 2 TD favorites here so we anticipate them building a lead and sitting on it as they’ve done often this year. The lead the NFL in first half scoring at 21 PPG, however once they get a lead they grind it out averaging just 7 PPG in the 2nd half which ranks them 27th. Philly already runs the ball over 51% of the time ranking them 5th in the NFL and we expect an even heavier dose of the ground game tonight vs the Texans 32nd ranked run defense. That should eat clock especially in the 2nd half with the lead if things play out as planned. Houston’s offense will have big problems scoring against one of the top defensive units in the NFL. The Texans rank 29th in scoring at 16 PPG and they’ve only topped 20 points once the entire season. In their 2 games vs top 10 defenses this season (Denver & Indy) the Texans averaged just 14.5 PPG and 260 YPG. Those were their first 2 games of the season and since that Houston has played 5 teams with defenses ranked 15th or lower. Tonight they face a Philly stop unit that ranks 3rd in total defense, 2nd in YPP defense, and has allowed an average of 13.8 PPG over their last 6 games. Houston games are averaging 39 total points this season while Philly games are averaging 45, both under this posted number. These two are both slower paced teams ranking 19th and 21st so plays should be limited here especially if the Eagles build and lead and milk the clock. We anticipate this game landing in the low 40’s and we’ll grab the Under. |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here. |
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11-02-22 | Hornets +6 v. Bulls | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover. |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here. |
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11-01-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
#57/58 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals (-125) - Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Daniel Vladar is the back-up goalie for the Flames and he is expected to get the start here. He has not played in a week and a half. Also, he is facing a surging Seattle team that has scored 3 or more goals in 6 straight games. During this run, the Kraken have averaged 3.7 goals scored per game. Seattle is off a 3-1 win but allowing just 1 goal is very unusual for this Seattle team. In fact, this entire season they have not gone consecutive games that have totaled less than 7 goals. Essentially, the Kraken have been alternating high and low-scoring games this season but mostly the lean has been toward the high side. Prior to the 3-1 win, Seattle was 2-5 last 7 games and allowed 3.7 goals per game during this streak. The Kraken have scored an average of 3.8 goals per game on the road this season. The Flames, however, are on home ice and they are looking to rebound off a 3-2 loss to Alberta rival Edmonton. Calgary will not be in a good mood here and will be very aggressive as they look to get right back into the win column. Keep in mind, the Flames had gone 5-1 first 6 games of this season and averaged scoring 3.5 goals per game in those 6 games. Both teams have been solid on the power play early this season but Seattle has struggled on the penalty kill. Also, the Flames are piling up shots on goal so they will pressure the Kraken here early, often and throughout this one. Over is our play here. |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 8 PM ET - We like the value on the total here. We were on the Under in Game 2 which was 7 runs and that was with Philadelphia ace Wheeler and Houston #2 starter Valdez on the mound. Now these 2 push down to their #4 and #3 starters with McCullers and Suarez and the total went up only a half a run. The Phillies are back home where they excel offensively and put runs on the board. In their 5 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park they scored 35 runs for an average of 7 RPG. Most of those games were vs high level starting pitchers including Darvish & Musgrove for San Diego and Strider and Morton for Atlanta. On the season the Phillies scored the 4th most runs at home with an average of 5.3 per game. Houston has averaged 4.6 RPG over their 9 game post-season scoring at least 4 in 7 of those 9 games. That includes Houston putting up 10 runs in the first 2 games of this series facing Philadelphia’s 2 ace starters Wheeler and Nola. Those 2 starters allowed 9 ER’s in 9.1 innings pitched in games 1 & 2. The Astros have had more success vs left handers this year compared to right handed pitchers. They’ve hit .260 on the season vs lefties (.238 vs RH) and they are averaging 5.1 RPG (4.4 vs RH). Suarez pitched in relief last week in this series and the one start he had vs Houston (in early October) he was shelled for 6 ER’s in just 3 innings of work. The drop down in starters on both sides should provide both teams with a solid opportunity to be successful offensively. Weather will be much better tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing from left to right. We like OVER 7.5 Runs here. |
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat -105 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Even vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40 PM ET - We get two elite teams in this showdown with both coming off 2 straight losses making this game a higher priority. Last Thursday these same two teams met in Golden State with the Warriors coming out on top 123-110 as a minus -5.5-point favorite. That natural swing in the line should have the Heat favored by -2.5-points here so let’s grab the value with Miami. The Heat were 36-15 SU in the regular season at home last year with a +/- of +5.8PPG. Golden State is 41-50 SU since 2020 on the road with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. The Warriors live and die by the 3-pointer and the Heat historically under coach Spoelstra defend the arc as well as anyone. This season they are 26th in the league in 3-point percentage D but they’ve been top 11 the past three years, 2nd a year ago. The Warriors defense is 30th in the NBA in points allowed this season and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Miami has covered 5 of the last seven at home versus the Warriors. Bet the home team! |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cincinnati defense has quietly become one of the best in the NFL this season. Ranked 6th overall DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and they’ve allowed 20 points or fewer in every game (in regulation) with the exception of their match up vs New Orleans. The impressive part about their defensive performance this season is they’ve faced the 8th toughest offensive schedule thus far. We expect this defense to have success vs a Cleveland offense that started the season red hot but has tailed off scoring 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. In their last 2 contests, the Browns have scored a total of 35 points and averaged just 332 total yards vs defenses ranked 23rd (Baltimore) and 15th (New England). The Browns will run the ball a lot (32 carries per game – 5th in the NFL) and they will be without TE Njoku who has become QB Brissett’s favorite target with 34 receptions on the season. The Cleveland defense has been up and down this season but they get two huge contributors back tonight with DE’s Garrett and Clowney both expected to play. They’re coming off their most impressive defensive performance of the season holding a very potent Baltimore offense to just 254 total yards on only 4.0 YPP. Their weakness this season has been vs the run but last week kept Baltimore (3rd in the NFL in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. We’re not sure Cincinnati can even take advantage of Cleveland if they do struggle to stop the run here as they run the ball very little (36% of the time) and they average just 87 YPG on the ground. The Bengal passing game takes a huge hit with WR Chase out – top 6 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TD’s. Division Totals 25-10 to the UNDER entering Sunday and we’ll call for another one on Monday night. |
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10-31-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-139 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 42 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 42 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We were on this UNDER the first time these 2 met this season back in September and we’re on it again. In that game the total was set at 42 points and it was an easy Under with SF winning 24-9. The 2 teams combined for only 584 total yards on 4.7 YPP. This rivalry has now played to the Under in 5 of the last 6 meetings and they’ve averaged just 40 total points in those 6 games. The defenses are the superior units on both teams. They both rank in the top 5 in total defense and they know each other very well. San Fran is coming off by far their worst defensive performance of the season allowing 44 points to a potent KC offense so you can expect the Niners stop unit to play with a chip on their shoulder here. Prior to that SF was allowing only 14.8 PPG. The Rams defense has been lights out as well since their opening season loss to Buffalo where they allowed 31 points. Since that game LA is giving up only 19 PPG. Offensively the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season averaging only 17 PPG (29th in the NFL) after putting up 27 PPG (6th in the NFL) last year. San Francisco isn’t a whole lot better averaging just over 20 PPG on the season and they will be without one of their top offensive weapons, WR/RB Deebo Samuel, who will sit with an injury. In the first meeting Samuel accounted for 117 to SF’s 327 total yards. The Niners offense has faced only 2 top 10 defenses this season (current ranking) and they have averaged just 17 PPG in those 2. The Rams have faced 3 top 10 defenses this season and they have scored only 29 total points in those games (9.6 PPG). Division Totals are 25-10 to the Under this season and we see another low scoring game here. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, nday at 1:00 PM ET - The Vikings are seen to have a scheduling advantage here as they are coming off a bye but it’s very minimal at best because Arizona played last Thursday so they’ve had 10 days off as well. The Vikings are 5-1 SU but they’ve been extremely fortunate to get to that mark. They rank 27th in the NFL in YPP differential at -0.67 despite playing an easy schedule (20th SOS thus far). The only teams they’ve faced that currently has a winning records are Philadelphia and the Vikings were dominated in that game (24-7 loss) and Miami (Vikings won by 8) who actually outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards and had to start rookie Thompson at QB. Since getting toasted by KC in the opener, the Cardinals have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents. Their offense has some momentum coming in off a 42 point outburst vs a solid Saints defense and facing a bad Minnesota defense (27th in total defense) we expect the Arizona offense to have a very solid day. That success coincided with the return of their top WR Hopkins who had over 100 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension. QB Murray is very comfortable with him and has much better numbers when Hopkins is on the field. Also home field advantage is limited at best in Arizona games as they are a much better road team than a home team. They have a 10-2 SU regular season road record since the start of last year and as a road underdog the Cards have covered 8 straight as a road dog winning all 8 games OUTRIGHT. We feel Minnesota is overvalued here and getting more than a FG with Arizona is the way to go. |
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10-30-22 | Wyoming v. Hawaii UNDER 51 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
#193/194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Wyoming vs Hawaii, Saturday at 12 Midnight ET - We have 2 of the worst offenses in college football in this game and we do not see them reaching 50 points. Hawaii ranks 115th in total offense (out of 131) and Wyoming ranks 114th. If we subtract games vs FCS opponents and any OT points, Wyoming is averaging 21 PPG which would rank them outside the top 100 and Hawaii is averaging just 17 PPG ranking them 115th. Both teams are slower paced as well with Wyoming ranking 108th averaging 1 offensive snap every 27 seconds and Hawaii averages 1 play every 25 seconds which is 54th nationally. Needless to say this should be a slower paced game without many offensive snaps. Defensively Wyoming is quite solid. They rank 55th in total YPG allowed and give up only 5.3 YPP. The Cowboys have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 14 points or fewer. Their last 2 opponents, Utah State & New Mexico, have very similar offensive numbers to Hawaii and Wyoming held them each to just 14 points. Hawaii’s defense does not have impressive year long numbers. However, they played some very impressive offenses early in the season including Michigan & Western Kentucky and gave up piles of yards and points in those games so the year long numbers aren’t overly accurate. As of late and playing lower tier offenses comparable to Wyoming, the Hawaii defense has been impressive. They have allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games including 16, 16, and 17 points the last 3 weeks after they had their bye back on October 1st. Last year these 2 faced off and scored 52 points and both offenses were drastically better than this year’s versions. We just don’t see either team doing much offensively here and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs - Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 of the series in a higher scoring 6-5 game but we like tonight’s match up to stay Under 7. The Phils have their top starter on the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler. He has been outstanding all season long but he’s turned his game up a notch in the post-season. He has started 4 games in the playoffs totaling 25.1 innings and he’s allowed just 10 hits during that stretch and 5 earned runs. The Houston line up has seen very little of Wheeler with 11 total plate appearances among their entire team and he did not face them this season giving him a big advantage here in our opinion. The Phillies will face Houston starter Valdez and he has been lights out as well in the post-season. He’s pitched 12.2 innings in the playoffs giving up just 8 hits and 2 ER’s. Both are low HR pitchers allowing 0.76 and 0.50 per innings so the long ball will be tough to come by tonight after they combined for 3 round trippers last night. After these 2 exit, the Houston bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season with a 2.67 ERA and while Philadelphia’s relievers weren’t as impressive during the regular season, in their 12 playoff games their ERA is just 2.81. Neither of these teams has a great batting average in the post-season, both right around .230, but the Phillies have been fortunate to hit .307 in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, well above their team batting average. Some regression is expected on that end, especially vs Valdez who has held this line up to a .135 batting average (lifetime) in 42 plate appearances. When Wheeler and Valdez have started in the post-season (4 starts) their games have averaged a total of 5 runs. We see another low scoring game tonight in Houston. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points. |
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10-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228.5 Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Tempo or pace plays an important component of this wager as we have one fast paced team in the Spurs (102.7 possessions per game) and the Bulls who are slightly faster than league average at 100. San Antonio is the 4th fastest team in the NBA, Chicago is 14th. But the Bulls pace numbers are a little misleading as four of the five teams they’ve faced are some of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The one game they faced a fast-paced team like the Spurs they finished with 233 points against Indiana and that Total was set at 234.5. In that comparison, the Spurs are just as fast as Indiana, way better offensively with the 9th most efficient offense and nearly identical defensively. San Antonio has struggled defensively allowing 121.6PPG but are also scoring 118PPG. The strength and weaknesses of both teams will exploit each other here. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well with the Spurs hitting 38.6% from deep which is 8th in the NBA. The Bulls hit 37.1% from beyond the arc which is good for 13th in the league. Neither team defends the deep ball well either with the Spurs ranking 25th in 3PT% “D” and the Bulls ranking 29th. Both teams have similar makeups to last years rosters and in the two meetings a season ago they put up 229 and 253 total points. Easy Over! |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - TB’s offense is broken right now. They rank 22nd in total offense, 26th in scoring offense and 32nd, dead last, in rushing offense. They have been held to 20 points or less in 5 of their 7 games and the last two weeks they scored 18 vs Pittsburgh (ranked 28th in total defense) and 3 points vs Carolina (ranked 18th in total defense). Their games this season are averaging just 35 total points. The Baltimore defense is allowing 23 PPG, however much of that game in a game they allowed 42 points vs Miami early in the season when the Fins were coming from behind and put up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Minus that game the Ravens defense has been quite solid giving up an average of 19.8 PPG. The Baltimore offense got off to a hot start this season but they have not topped 23 points in any of their last 4 games, all going Under the total. These 2 teams have combined to play 14 games this season with only 3 going Over the total. With the spread as of this writing sitting at TB -1, the expected final score would be right around 23-22 or 24-22 in favor of the Bucs. We don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under on Thursday night. |
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10-27-22 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 129-125 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - Brooklyn is coming off an embarrassing loss in Milwaukee last night and we should see a much better effort at home against the Mavs. The Nets/Bucks had a Total set of 228.5 last night and managed just 209 combined points. This number of 228.5 is the highest number set on a Mavs game this year by 9-full points. Pace will play an important role in this outcome as we have the 3rd slowest paced team in the Mavs and 15th in Brooklyn. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Nets are 12th in the league at 1.115-points per possession, the Mavericks are 1st at 1.231PPP which is not sustainable. In comparison, last season Dallas had an OEFF of 1.129PPP which was around league average. Last season in the two regular season meetings these two combined for 224 and 201 total points. Both teams have shot well above expectations early on but that should trend down as the weeks go on. Our projections have this game in the low 220’s. Bet UNDER. |
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10-26-22 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - This is a home-home series as these same two teams just met on Oct 24th in Minnesota. That game finished with 221 points and had a posted Total of 235. That game could have easily gone over the number but each team had an abnormal quarter. After putting up a combined 124-points in the first half it looked like a sure Over bet winner. Then the Wolves managed just 14-points in the 3rd quarter while the Spurs put up 12-points in the 4th. We should see another high scoring affair here with two teams that like to play fast. The Spurs are 4th in pace of play, the T-Wolves are 5th so we know there will be plenty of possession for a high scoring game. Minnesota is 13th in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are 21st so neither are exceptional on that end of the floor. San Antonio is scoring 117PPG, Minnesota is putting up 115.8PPG. Last season when these two teams met they put huge totals in 2 of the four games with 288 and 248-points. The oddsmakers lowered this Total by a few points so let’s grab the value and bet OVER. |
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10-26-22 | Oilers -110 v. Blues | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
#45 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers -115 on the Money Line over St Louis Blues, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - This is a great early season set-up filled with value. Blues got off to a hot start this season and were 3-0 before a shutout loss at Winnipeg in their most recent game. However, here are a couple of keys. St Louis has averaged scoring only 1 goal last two games. The Blue have only played one team that was a playoff team from last season and that was the Oilers at Edmonton last week. Yes, St Louis won that game 2-0 but it included an empty net goal and was truly a game that could have gone either way. It was evenly played 5 on 5 but the Blues got a power play goal. That of course makes this a revenge game and then you look at the Oilers schedule and they have already played 4 playoff teams from last season! Edmonton is off of a big win over Pittsburgh and that is a momentum boost for this club as they now head on the road for the first time this season. The odds makers are sharp, of course, and it is with good reason that Edmonton is favored here on the road for this one! Other than their shutout loss at home to these Blues, the Oilers have scored an average of 4.4 goals per game in their other 5 games. They are so dangerous offensively and they will have a different gameplan here for the rematch and we don't see the Blues as being able to keep up in this one. Look for the firepower (and determination!) of revenge-minded Edmonton to prove to be too much in this one! Lay it! We think we’re getting some nice value getting this revenging road team at a great price of just -115 in this one with the Oilers as it is the perfect set-up for an away win.
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10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 226 | Top | 105-134 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Money and tickets have driven his number up throughout the betting markets which gives us some added value on the Under. The Warriors have scored 123 and 130 in their last two games but those results came against Sacramento and Denver which rank 22nd and 29th in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they face a Phoenix team that allows just 1.053-points per possession which is 5th in the NBA. That’s not a shock either as the Suns were 3rd last season in DEFF. Golden State cannot maintain the pace of play they are currently playing at of 109.6 possessions per game. A great comparison is what they averaged last season of 98.3 possessions per game. Phoenix will want to slow this home game down as they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league at this point of the season. In fact, Phoenix just played a similar team to the Warriors in terms of scoring when they went to Portland who is averaging 117.3PPG and held them to 102-points in regulation. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 200, 214, 223 and 210 total points. That trend continues here…BET UNDER! |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats are better than their 3-3 record as they rank 7th in the NFL in YPP differential. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 6 opponents with Green Bay and Miami their only opponents to outgain them. Starting QB Mac Jones looks like he will return tonight, however if for some reason he does not back up QB Bailey Zappe has really played well and last week he put up over 300 yards passing and completed over 70% of his passes. Chicago will be in trouble offensively here vs a Patriot defense that has allowed 15 points over their last 2 games. They’ve outscored their last 2 opponents 67-15 and the defense has allowed just 4.9 YPP over their last 2 games vs Detroit (ranked 2nd in total offense) and Cleveland (ranked 5th in total offense). Now they face a Chicago team ranked 28th in total offense so we just don’t see the Bears doing much on that side of the ball. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the only 2 games they topped that number was vs Houston (ranked 31st in total defense) and Minnesota (ranked 26t in total defense). The Patriots have scored 24 or more in 4 straight games and that’ll be enough to get this cover. Belichick is 62-32 ATS in October and we look for his defense to own Chicago and QB Fields in this game. Lay the points. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday. |
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10-23-22 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This line opened 41 and has dropped to 39.5. Not enough in our opinion. How many points is Carolina going to score in this game? They just traded away their 2 top offensive weapons – RB McCaffrey and WR Anderson – and they’ll be starting 3rd string QB PJ Walker again this week. Last Sunday they scored only 3 points offensively as their lone TD came on an interception. McCaffrey accounted for 158 of their 203 total yards and he is now in San Francisco playing for the Niners. Starting QB Walker has completed only 57% of his passes in his NFL career and last week he threw for 60 yards vs the Rams. He’s now facing a TB defense that ranks 7th in pass defense and opponents are averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt (5th best in the NFL). The Panthers have scored a total of 63 points over their last 4 games for an average of 15.7 PPG. However, they have also scored THREE defensive TD’s during that stretch so their offense is actually averaging a paltry 10 PPG and they are in far worse shape offensively right now than they were for any of those 4 games. So why not just lay 13 points with Tampa Bay in this game? We don’t trust their offense. Last week vs a Pittsburgh team that was without many of their key players in the secondary, the Bucs could only score 18 points. They have been held to 21 points in every game but one this season and they can’t run the ball (last in the NFL at 67 YPG). Carolina’s strength has been their pass defense allowing 223 YPG on 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Tampa offense ranks 21st in YPG and PPG despite playing 4 defenses ranked 15th or worse including 2 ranked 27th (TB scored 21) and 29th (TB scored 18). Tampa probably has to get to 30+ to give this game a chance at going Over the total and we just don’t see that happening. We go Under here. |
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10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State. |
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10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
#363/364 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 58.5 Points - Eastern Michigan vs Ball State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Let’s start with the defenses in this game, or should we say the lack of defense. In terms of basic scoring defense these two units rank near the bottom of college football in points allowed per game with EMU giving up 32.7PPG (113th) while Ball State allows 29.3PPG (89th). Both teams allow 5.3-Yards Per Play which is slightly above the national average, but these two teams have played the 124th and 119th easiest schedule. Ball State is 95th in Yards Per Point defense allowing 1-point for every 13 yards gained. EMU is 120th in YPPT defense giving up a point for every 11.6 yards gained. The offenses for both teams have had some highs and lows this season. Eastern Michigan has scored 30 or more points in 3 games against FBS schools but are coming off 10-points last week against Northern Illinois. UNI dominated the time of possession with their running game (287-rush yards) that is 29th best in the nation, which limited the Eagles offensive opportunities. That won’t be the case here as Ball State is 83rd in rushing at 133.7RYPG. Ball State is averaging 25.7PPG on the season but 30.3PPG in conference play. Pace of play favors a high scoring game here also with Ball State ranking as the 8th fastest paced team in college football, Eastern ranks 42nd. Historically this has been a high scoring series with 5 of the last six meetings going Over the total and 13 of the last sixteen overall. |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - Two polar opposite ballparks in this series as San Diego is a pitcher’s park that averages 7.32 total RPG on the season while Philadelphia is a hitter’s park that averages over 9 total RPG on the year. The Phillies averaged 5 RPG at home this season which was the 4th most in MLB. In their 2 post season games they scored 9 & 8 runs vs a very good Atlanta pitching staff and the shelled both starters – Strider and Morton – who are top of the line rotation guys. Philadelphia has scored at least 4 runs in 19 of their last 23 home games. They’ll be facing SD starter Musgrove who has been pitching well but struggled in his only appearance vs Philly this year where they lit him up for 6 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. The Padres will face Philly left hander Suarez who is considered their 3rd or 4th best starter. He has an ERA at home of 4.27 and his WHIP on the season is a rather high 1.33. San Diego has been a solid hitting team vs lefties averaging 4.5 RPG on the season and on the road they’ve put up almost 5.5 RPG vs south paws. Weather looks good tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing out. Over is the call tonight. |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Saints were without 7 offensive starters to end last game and could struggle here vs a surging Arizona defense. New Orleans is in shambles at the WR position with Thomas and Landry most likely out again. Olave looks like he may come back. Both QB’s for the Saints – Winston & Dalton – are injured and were limited in practice and they’re on a short week. Arizona’s defense has played outstanding the last 3 weeks limiting their opponents to 12, 20, and 19 points. The last 2 results listed were impressive holding 2 top 8 scoring offenses, Philly & Seattle, well below their season average point totals. Along with that, the Cardinal defense limited Seattle to just 4.5 YPP (they average 6.2 YPP) and Philadelphia to 5.0 YPP (they average 5.6 YPP). We look for New Orleans banged up offense to struggle here. On the other side, the Arizona offense has been poor all season long. Last week they averaged only 4.4 YPP and scored 3 offensive points vs a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in total defense and YPP allowed. The only TD Arizona came up with was a defensive scored. They rank dead last in the NFL in YPP at only 4.8. They do get WR Hopkins back for this game from a suspension but he hasn’t played all year so we don’t expect a huge jump. While Hopkins returns, the Cardinals lose WR Brown to injury and he has been their top WR this year so those 2 things offset each other. New Orleans defense is much healthier than their offense at this point. They have given up some points over the last 3 games vs Cincinnati, Seattle, and Minnesota but they are still limiting opponents to 2.5 red zone scoring attempts per game and 1.2 red zone TD’s per game which both rank 5th best in the NFL. They’ve been a bit unlucky allowing opponents to score 1 point for every 13 yards gained which ranks them 31st in that category after ranking 6th last year (1 point for every 16 yards gained by opponents). We think the Saints defense will look much better in this game vs one of the worst offenses in the league so far this season. Unders continue to rule the day in the NFL with a record of 56-36 (61%) on the season and this total is set 2 points higher than the average NFL score in 2022 which is 43 total points. Under is the play on Thursday night. |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly. |
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10-19-22 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215. Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors has essentially their roster intact from a year ago but the Cavs made the biggest offseason splash in the league with a trade for Donovan Mitchell (Jazz). Cleveland will take some time to adjust with Mitchell on the floor with Darius Garland so expect some lower scoring early on. These two teams were two of the best on the defensive end of the court and that’s not going to change this season. The Raptors were 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.106-points per possession. The Cavs were 7th at 1.097PPP. Both teams played extremely slow with the Cavs being the 26th slowest paced team in the league, while the Raptors were 27th. Neither team was great offensively with the Raptors ranking 15th in offensive efficiency, the Cavaliers were 20th at 1.119PPP. Under is the play here. |
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10-19-22 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 last night by a final score of 2-0 with the two teams combining for only 4 hits and 7 total baserunners. We see a similar result this afternoon. Both teams have high level starters taking the mound with the Phillies Aaron Nola and the Padres Blake Snell. Nola has been red hot in the post-season not allowing a single run in 12.2 innings pitched. Going back to the end of the regular season, he has not allowed an earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. He faced the Padres just once this season and allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings with 10 strikeouts. San Diego will counter with Blake Snell who held the high powered LA Dodger line up to 1 earned run in 5.1 innings of work last Friday. He has been sharp as of late allowing just 5 earned runs in his last 6 starts combined. In 78 combined plate appearances, the current Phillies line up is hitting just .191 lifetime vs Snell. Neither team has been lighting it up at the plate in the post-season with Philadelphia hitting .218 and San Diego hitting .219. Both have relied heavily on the HR to put runs on the board and that’ll be tough today as both Nola (0.83) and Snell (0.77) are allowing well less than 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. Petco Park is always known as a pitcher’s park and this year was no exception as the average total runs scored here is 7.32 for the season. With the wind blowing in from left field this afternoon at 10 MPH, this game sets up as another low scoring affair. Let’s take the Under in this one. |