Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-19-17 | Wright State v. Missouri State -9 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -9 over Wright State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET We like this situation with the better team (Missouri State) is at home and coming off a loss as a favorite. The Bears most recent game was @ Oral Roberts and they played their worst game of the season losing outright as a 12 point favorite. Now they’ve had 9 days off and they should have some extra motivation coming off that loss. Mizzou State was on an 8 game winning streak heading into that game. On the flip side, we have a road opponent in Wright State who is coming off an upset win on Saturday beating Toledo as a 5-point dog. That game was won at the FT line where Wright State made 22 FT’s to just 7 for the Rockets. Toledo is a decent team but not on the same level as the Raiders opponent tonight. Missouri State is a very good defensive team (36th nationally in eFG% defense) and we look for a poor shooting Wright State team (277th in eFG% offense) to struggle scoring in this one. The Bears have held half of their opponents (6) to 60 points or less and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they do the same here. This is just the third top 100 team that Wright State has faced this year (0-2 in the first two games) and the Raiders are 1-3 on the road this season. This will also be the highest ranked opponent Wright State (7-4 record) has faced this season with Mizzou State ranked 78th. These two have one common opponent and that is Western Kentucky (ranked 85th nationally). They both played the Hilltoppers on the road and Missouri State won by 5 while Wright lost by 18. The Bears are rested while Wright is playing their 2nd road game in 4 days and they have a trip to Georgia Tech on Friday. We like Missouri State to roll up a big win in this game. |
|||||||
12-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +14.5 v. Creighton | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Arlington +14.5 over Creighton, Monday at 9:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One UTA is an under the radar team that is experienced and very good. They bring back most of their key players from last year’s team that went 27-9. The Mavs start 5 seniors including NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who is 6’8 and averaging 24 PPG and 9 rebounds per game. They also have a fantastic point guard in Erick Neal who leads the nation in assists. Neal sat out their most recent game due to a personal situation but is expected to start tonight. They have plenty of size to compete with high major teams as they go 7’0 (Va Tech transfer), 6’8 (Hervey), 6’7 in their starting lineup and their first big off the bench is 6’9. The Mavericks have an 8-3 record and have been very competitive on the road as you’d expect them to be with a successful, veteran team. They’ve played 3 true road games this year winning @ BYU, losing by 1-point @ Alabama, and losing by 4 @ Northern Iowa which was a 1-point game with under 1:00 minute remaining. They were 12-7 on the road last year including wins @ Texas and @ St Mary’s. Creighton is 8-2 on the year yet just 3-2 vs top 100 teams. The Blue Jays wins over top 100 teams have come by margins of 4, 10, and 11 points. The one very comparable opponent as far as ratings go was vs Nebraska who is rated 85th and Arlington is 79th. In their game vs Nebraska the Blue Jays won by 10 but it was much closer than that. The Huskers led by 8 in the 2nd half and it was a tight game down the stretch and the final margin of 10 was Creighton’s largest of the game. These two match up fairly evenly when it comes to efficiency stats and we feel there is no reason UTA should be getting this many points. Arlington has covered 8 in a row as a dog (3-0 ATS this year) dating back to last season and this one should be close throughout. |
|||||||
12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
PLAY OVER Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:30PM ET - This series has been high scoring of late with three straight OVER dating back to the start of last season. In those three games they've combined for 55, 71 and 54 total points. Just as important as the final scores is the yardage these two teams have amassed in those three games too. In the first meeting last season these two clubs racked up 740 total yards, in the second meeting of 2016 they put up 860 total yards. In the clash on Nov 26th of this season they put up 890 total yards. In other words both teams are going to move the ball offensively which will translate to a ton of points. The Bucs defense isn't going to stop the Falcons as they have the 31st worst passing defense in the NFL and are 22nd against the run. Tampa Bay should do some scoring of their own too as they have the 5th fastest paced offense in the NFL and let's face it the Falcons defense isn't great. Atlanta ranks 17th against the pass this season and 31st against the run. Both teams are in the bottom 11 in the NFL in defensive yards per point. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in total offense and considering this number is sitting just a few points above average we'll bet OVER! |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Titans v. 49ers -1 | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We faded this overrated Tennessee team last week and cashed in and we’ll do it again here. The Titans are the most overrated team in the league. They are 8-5 on the year but have been outgained and outscored on the season. Last week @ Arizona they lost 12-7 and the offense stunk again. The Titans put up barely 200 yards of total offense and QB Mariota was bad again throwing 2 interceptions. The Titans are 3-4 on the road this year and Mariota has thrown just 3 TD’s to go along with 11 picks away from home on the season. This is also their 4th road game in 5 weeks and they have already lost @ Miami and @ Arizona and squeaked by @ Indy and in OT @ Cleveland. This Niner franchise now has some life with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. They have won back to back road games @ Chicago and @ Houston and they outgained those two teams by a combined 350 yards. Garoppolo has thrown for over 600 yards in those two games. Now they are back at home and confident. The SF defense has been solid vs the rush this year allowing 3.9 YPC which is 7th in the NFL and if you can slow down Tennessee’s rushing attack you have them right where you want them. That forces Mariota to carry the load and he hasn’t been able to do that this season. Things that make you go hmmm…There is a reason the 3-10 team is a favorite over the 8-5 team. The Niners are the better team right now and we’ll take them at home. |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 39 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 39 Points - Miami @ Buffalo, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET This number is set too low in our opinion. Most likely an overreaction to the Indy – Buffalo game last weekend that ended 13-7 but was played in blizzard like conditions. This week the weather looks fine with temps in the 20’s but very little wind which is key. Also no precipitation in the forecast. It may also be set too low based on a Miami defense that shut down New England on Monday Night holding the Pats to 20 points. However, that effort does not a great defense make. If you look back at the recent performance of the Miami defense it’s been very poor. Throw out their game vs Denver as the Broncos can’t score on anyone right now, and this defense has allowed 35, 30, 45, 27, 40 and 28 points in their previous 6 leading into their games vs Denver and New England. Buffalo’s offense hasn’t put up a ton of points recently but they’ve been facing solid defenses over the last 5 weeks with the exception of Indy and again that was played in a blizzard. Tyrod Taylor gets the start here and we expect the Bills to look much better offensively. Miami is simply a better offense with Cutler at the helm. They’ve now scored 20 or more in 7 of their last 9 games. The Fins put up 27 on a New England defense last Monday that hadn’t allowed any of their previous 8 opponents to top 17 points. This AFC East rivalry has been high scoring as of late with the last 4 games totaling 65, 53, 50, and 55 points. These two have not had a total set in the 30’s since the 2010 season. We take the OVER here. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points - LA Chargers @ Kansas City, Saturday at 8:25 PM ET - AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR This one is essentially a battle for the AFC West Division Title. They are tied atop the division with 7-6 records. KC won the first game @ LA so a win here by the Chiefs would all but lock up the division. A Charger win would make the last two weeks very interesting. These teams know each other very well and this will be a playoff atmosphere. We think that favors the defenses. The Charger defense has been simply lights out as of late. Over their last 9 games this defense has allowed just 14 PPG. Because of that defense, the Chargers have stayed UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games. The KC defense has been up and down this season but at home, they’ve been very solid allowing just 18 PPG. They have not allowed a single opponent to top 20 points this year here at Arrowhead Stadium. Offensively, the Chiefs have gone in the tank during their 8 game freefall in which they have a 2-6 record. If you take out their two games vs Oakland, who ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency, this KC offense has averaged just 18 PPG over their 8 game swoon. Taking KC UNDER at home has been a definite money maker. They are 45-24-2 to the UNDER in home games since 2009. That’s the highest percentage of UNDERS for a home team in the NFL during that stretch. These two put up just 34 points in their first meeting (24-10 Chiefs win) with neither team topping 330 total yards. 14 of the last 20 meetings between these two here in Kansas City have failed to top 45 points. We like the UNDER. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Oregon v. Fresno State -2 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2 over Oregon, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - One CBS Sports Network This will be the first time this year that the Ducks have had to leave the state of Oregon. They have played 11 games thus far with 8 being on their home court and 3 coming down the road in Portland. Even with the favorable schedule the Ducks still have 3 losses on the season. One of those setbacks came on their home court to Boise State, a team from the same conference as Fresno (Mountain West), and a team we rate almost equal to the Bulldogs. Oregon is a far cry from the team that made the Final 4 last year and 6 of their top 7 players have moved on. Their only top 7 returner is guard Peyton Pritchard and he is paired with 4 new starters, 3 of whom are transfers. They are still try to mesh as a team. They are 0-3 vs top 100 teams and their highest rated win came in OT vs DePaul. And remember, they haven’t played a road game yet are still struggling. This is a huge home game for a very solid Fresno team. They’ve been looking forward to this one as they rarely get to host a “Power 5” type team, to use a football reference. Their last was back in 2015 when California came to town. The Bulldogs are 9-2 on the season and one of the more experienced teams in the country with 5 upperclassmen in their top 6 and they shoot the ball very well with a 57% eFG rate (22nd in the nation). They are tough to guard as they have 5 players averaging at least 10 PPG. They could be without one of those players (Hopkins) who has a back injury but they are deep & experienced enough to get by without him here. This Fresno team has won 27 of their last 29 home games and covered 19 of their last 26 at home. Oregon was one of the best teams in the nation and topped Fresno at home last year. The Bulldogs now return the favor vs an Oregon team that is still finding their way and working on their team chemistry with a slew of new faces. If they’ve been inconsistent at home, we can’t imagine they’ll be efficient in their first road game. Take Fresno. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions OVER 44 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points - Chicago @ Detroit, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - NFC North Total of the Month These two met in Chicago back in October and the Lions won 27-24 totaling 51 points. It could have been worse as the two combined for 38 in the first half alone before slowing down to just 13 in the 2nd stanza. Both offenses were on point with the Bears rolling up 398 yards including 222 on the ground. The Lions put up 352 yards with 299 coming from Stafford through the air. That was really Chicago’s best offensive performance since Trubisky took over at QB. That was until last week when the Bears put up 33 points and Trubisky had 271 yards passing on a very solid Cincy defense. Facing a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in total defense and YPP defense, we expect the Chicago offense to look good again for the 2nd straight week. Detroit topped Tampa 24-21 last week but the Lions rolled offensively with over 430 yards of total offense so their scoring numbers (24) probably should have been even higher. They rank 5th in the NFL at 26 PPG and the Lions have scored at least 20 points in every game but 2 this year and those games were against two of the top defenses in the NFL (Minnesota & Pittsburgh). At home in the controlled climate they have been even better scoring at least 20 points in 11 of their last 13 dating back to last season. Detroit will score here and Chicago looks like they’ve turned the corner offensively and had earlier success vs this defense as well. 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two here in Detroit have reached at least 44 points. This one does as well. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #205 |
|||||||
12-14-17 | Penguins -105 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (-) @ Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET |
|||||||
12-13-17 | Western Kentucky +6 v. Wisconsin | Top | 80-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +6 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One We follow Wisconsin very closely as we are right down the road from the Kohl Center (3 miles away) and have had season tickets since that building opened. The Badgers were young and inexperienced coming into the season and we felt that some growing pains were in order early in the year. They’ve played a very tough schedule and hung close in a number of losses. We felt at full strength they would continue to improve and be a solid team by mid-season. However, they are no longer at full strength. Starting PG Trice is out with a broken foot and word is it’s possibly for the entire season. Back-up guard Kobe King injured his knee in practice last Friday and is out for the season. Wisconsin now has 2 scholarship guards on the entire roster. Freshman Brad Davison is solid but played 39 minutes in their loss here to Marquette on Saturday and he is injured as well with a bad shoulder. The Badgers will be forced to play 2 walk-ons in the back court for significant minutes moving forward. On top of that, it’s finals week at UW which is always a distraction. WKY is a very tough opponent for this Badger team. They are athletic and can shoot the 3 very well ranking 10th nationally at 42.4% from beyond the arc. The Badgers have struggled all year to guard the 3 point line ranking 199th in that category. Marquette lit them up for 14 three pointers on Saturday and many were wide open looks. The Hilltoppers are also a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up. This is a huge game for them facing a name opponent with a chance to pull the road upset. It’s not as if this WKY team hasn’t already shown they can hang with the best teams in the nation as they’ve already beaten Purdue (one of the top two teams in the Big Ten) and SMU while playing #1 Villanova very tight losing by just 8. We get Wisconsin has had a very strong home court advantage over the years but this isn’t team isn’t at the same level as past editions. They’ve already been blown out, not just lost but blown out, at home twice this season. We give the Hilltoppers a decent shot to pull the upset and if they do lose it should be close. We’re on Western Kentucky here. |
|||||||
12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati UNDER 138.5 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 138.5 Points - Mississippi State @ Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 Two defensive minded teams here and we expect a grinder. MSU comes in allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and the Bearcats do them one better giving up just 36% from the field. That ranks these two teams 17th and 11th nationally in FG% defense respectively. The Bulldogs have held 7 of their 8 opponents this season to under 39% from the field. The Bearcats have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 67 points or less and 5 of those opponents failed to top 54 points. Their lone stinker defensively came against cross town rival Xavier two games ago and it wasn’t a huge surprise as the Musketeers are a fast paced team that shoots the ball as well as anyone in the nation (55% ranking 2nd nationally). They bounced back last Saturday after that poor performance and held a Florida team that was averaging over 90 PPG to just 66. Neither is a great shooting team and MSU is really poor from beyond the arc hitting just 29% (311th nationally). On top of that when these teams go to the line, it’s not a given as both make under 70% of their freebies. The Bearcats have gone UNDER in 5 of their 7 games with a posted total and Mississippi State has gone UNDER in 3 of their 4 games with posted totals. Cincy has gone UNDER the number in a whopping 50 of their last 70 non-conference games and we look for another here. This one should be low scoring and stay well UNDER this number. |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Titans v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arizona +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Titans just might be the most overrated team in the NFL. They are 8-4 yet have been outscored AND outgained on the season. Last week at home they got down 10-0 to a struggling Houston team and though they fought back to take the lead, the Texans were driving late for the winning score and threw a pick. Tennessee, with under 1:00 minute left and running out the clock, picked up a late covering 75 yard TD run to win 24-13. A very deceiving final score. The Titans have been outscored by 65 points in their last 5 road games with their only wins coming @ Cleveland 12-9 in OT and @ Indy 20-16. QB Marcus Mariota has struggled all season but especially on the road where he has thrown only 3 TD passes to go along with 9 interceptions. Because of Mariota’s struggles the Titans really need their running game to thrive in order for their offense to have a chance. That will be tough here as the Cards rank 9th overall in rush defense allowing 99 YPG and 6th in YPC defense (3.7). Arizona is off a home loss to the Rams but the Cards had more yardage in that game. A week earlier they beat a very good Jacksonville team here. This will be Arizona’s third straight home game while Tennessee is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. While the Cards have a 5-7 record and Titans are 8-4, the seasonal yardage numbers for these two teams are almost identical (Tennessee minus 4 YPG on the season / Arizona minus 2 YPG on the season). Arizona is 21-11-1 ATS (65%) as a home underdog since the start of the 2007 season. We like Arizona to win this game outright and we’ll gladly take the points here. |
|||||||
12-09-17 | Illinois v. UNLV OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 157.5 Points - Illinois @ UNLV, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET These two teams want to play fast and it's going to lead to a very high scoring game. The Illini are the 17th fastest paced team in the country at 78.8 possessions per game while UNLV is 8th at 80.9. The Runnin Rebels are also the 29th most efficient offense in college hoops at 1.135 points per possession. Illinois is not as efficient offensively as UNLV but they still average 1.036PPP which is good for 128th. What shot the Illini do miss they tend to clean up the boards and get plenty of second chance opportunities with an offensive rebounding rate that is 44th in the nation. UNLV is 33rd in NCAA with an effective FG% of 56.4 and also do a fantastic job on the O-boards with the 9th best rebounding percentage in the country. UNLV has scored 85 or more points in every game but one this year, 6 of nine have been 91+. The Illini have topped 80 points in 7 of their ten games this season. Bet the OVER in this game. |
|||||||
12-08-17 | Blue Jackets -125 v. Devils | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line (+) @ New Jersey Devils, Friday at 7:05 PM ET |
|||||||
12-08-17 | Cavs v. Pacers +5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #504 Indiana Pacers (+5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - When these two teams last met in Cleveland on Nov 1 the Cavs were a 10-point favorite and lost 107-124. The natural swing of the line should make the Cavs favored here but not by this many points. The inflation of the number of course has to do with the Cavs current 13 game winning streak. But did you know that in that stretch of game the Cavs are just 6-7 ATS AND they've only played two teams with winning record. In fact, the combined records of the eleven losing teams the Cavs have beaten in this run is 89-172 so it's really not as impressive as you might think. Cleveland continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers which is evident in their 3-16-1 ATS record as a favorite this season. Indiana has been a pleasant surprise this year at 14-11 SU, 8-4 at home. They've beaten the Raptors, Pistons and Spurs at home already this season so they can certainly beat this Cavs team. Indiana has covered 12 of the last 16 meetings with Cavaliers and will get it done tonight. |
|||||||
12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta +2 over New Orleans, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET Falcons have to win this game after losing here vs Minnesota last Sunday 14-9. Interestingly, the Birds were favored by 2 or 3 vs Minnesota and now vs Saints just 4 days later they are +2. Value with Atlanta here. The Falcons are on the fringe of the wild card and 2 full games behind the Saints in the NFC South. New Orleans is off a huge home win over Carolina which has them sitting great in the NFC South with basically a 2 game lead over both Carolina & Atlanta as they now own the tie breaker over the Panthers. After being held to just 9 points and under 300 total yards vs what we feel is the best defense in the NFL, we look for the Falcons to play MUCH better offensively in this one. They have topped 30 points in 4 of their last 6 meetings with New Orleans. Also the Saints defense, which looked really good through the middle of their schedule but did so facing a number of poor offenses (Chicago, Buffalo, Miami, TB, and Green Bay – without Rodgers) has now come back to earth a bit. They have allowed 31, 26, and 21 points their last 3. The Falcon offense will rebound here and we like the way this Atlanta defense is playing right now allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Atlanta continues to be the best statistical team in the NFL with a yards per play differential of +1.0 which is tops in the league. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in this rivalry and the Falcons have covered 13 of their last 17 when getting points at home. Just an absolute must win for a solid home team and we’ll take the Birds. |
|||||||
12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4 | Top | 55-59 | Push | 0 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple -4 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET The Badgers are one of the youngest teams in the nation ranking 335th in experience out of 351 teams. That means they will have ups and downs all season long. That scenario played out already this week as Wisconsin was destroyed at home vs Ohio State in what was their worst loss EVER at the Kohl Center (83-58) only to turn around and win on Monday night at Penn State 64-63 as a 5.5 point underdog. There were times on Monday night where Wisconsin had 4 freshman on the floor vs the Nittany Lions. UW was in a good spot to come back with some fight after getting embarrassed by OSU and Penn State was coming off their first ever win @ Iowa so a letdown was a strong possibility. The Badgers led by 17 in the 2nd half and held on for dear life was PSU missed a shot at the buzzer and Wisky held on 64-63. Now just 48 hours later this team has to take the court again vs a very good Temple team. The Owls are 4-2 on the season and all 4 wins have come against top 100 teams (South Carolina, Old Dominion, Auburn, and Clemson). Even more impressive, none of those games were at home (all on neutral courts). Speaking of home, we have a feeling Temple is fired up for this one not only because they face perennial power Wisconsin, but this is also their FIRST home game of the season. Another motivator here for Temple is the fact they are coming off a 4-point loss @ George Washington, a game that was just a few days after the Owls knocked off last year’s Final 4 entrant South Carolina 76-60. It looked like a letdown game for Temple and it was but now coming off that they should be extra hungry to win their first home game of the season. Unlike Wisconsin, this is a veteran Owl team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up and they are balanced with 3 players averaging 14 PPG or more. While the Owls are 4-0 vs top 100 teams, Wisconsin is just 1-5 vs teams ranked inside the top 100 with their only win coming Monday vs PSU by a single point as we discussed. This young Badger team will have a tough time dealing with this quick turnaround after an emotional, must win game on Monday and they have in-state rival Marquette coming on Saturday to add to the mix. We feel Temple is the better team this year and in the much better spot. Lay this low number with the Owls at home. |
|||||||
12-05-17 | Texas A&M -2 v. Arizona | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2 over Arizona, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 While is considered a home game for Arizona it is not on their true home court. The game is being played in Phoenix and while the crowd will obviously overwhelmingly in favor of the Cats it’s still 120 miles from Tucson to Phoenix and the fact that it is not in their own arena is a positive for A&M here. Arizona has come into this season a bit overrated. They just picked up their first top 100 win of the season on Saturday but that took OT vs a UNLV team that ranks 88th. Even in that win the Cats had to rally from an 11 point halftime deficit. Arizona is now just 1-3 on the season vs teams ranked inside the top 100. Not only did they lose those 3 games to Purdue, SMU and NC State, the Wildcats were favored in all of those games. A&M has been very good this season. They are 7-0 and that includes a 4-0 record vs top 100 teams. Not only have they won those games they’ve done so easily topping West Virginia, USC, Oklahoma State, and Penn State all by double digits. Even more impressive, none of those games were at home with 3 being neutral site wins on top of their win @ USC. The Aggie defense has been fantastic as they rank 4th nationally in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, and 1st in 3 point FG% defense. They are also a very good rebounding team and we know defense & rebounding travels well. Thus why A&M has played so well away from home this season. These two met last season in Houston and Arizona pulled off the tight 67-63 loss. The Aggies are simply the much better team at this point in the season and we expect another comfortable win vs another top 100 team. |
|||||||
12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 43.5 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals, 8:30PM ET - In this big rivalry game we expect the defenses to dominate and predict a lower scoring game. Earlier when these two teams squared off the number Vegas put up was 40 and they combined for 43 points as the Steelers won 29-14. The Bengals offense was stymied by the Steelers defense all game long, managing just 179 yards of total offense (league average 335YPG). Pittsburgh gave the Bengals a heavy dose of RB Bell in that game who rushed 35 times for 134 yards and there's no reason to expect a different game plan here, especially with WR Brown potentially not playing. The Steelers rank 7th in total yards per game but are 12th in scoring which tells us they move the ball well between the 20's but it doesn't translate to TD's. In fact, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage offense at 46.51%. Despite a poor overall record the Bengals defense has been quite good this year if you look inside the numbers. Cincinnati, is 14th overall in yards allowed per game but 10th in points allowed at just 19.5PPG. The Bengals offense is the worst in the NFL when it comes to yards per game at just 274.3YPG and 25th in scoring at 18.1PPG. Pittsburgh is 4th in the league in points allowed per game at 17.5PPG, 3rd in yards allowed per game at 289.4YPG. Historically speaking, 3 of the last four meetings have all stayed below the number. Pittsburgh's road games this year have resulted in 37, 35, 32, 35, 40 and 39 total points as a result of them being the dominate team and dictating much of the tempo. Play low scoring close games and win away from home! BET HERE IS UNDER! |
|||||||
12-04-17 | Missouri State -2.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8:00 PM ET Quick revenge game here for Mizzou State. These two teams met @ Missouri State on November 17th and NDSU pulled off the 57-54 upset as a 9.5 point underdog. Missouri State led 51-48 with under 4:00 minutes remaining and didn’t score a basket the rest of the way. On top of that, the Bears were a ridiculously poor 1 of 17 (6%) from 3 point range and still led late in the game. This is an experienced team with all upperclassmen in their top 8 players and they have been waiting for this game after that loss. The Bears just played @ South Dakota State, one of the pre-season favorites in the Summit, and beat them by 20 points. We definitely rated South Dakota State ahead of this NDSU team who is more than likely a middle of the pack squad in the Summit. The Bison are just 3-4 on the year and their only other wins besides their upset win over Mizzou State were against teams rated below 300. Three of their four losses have come double digits. They are not a great offensive team ranking 231st in offensive efficiency and they are playing a Missouri State defense that ranks 19th nationally in eFG% defense. NDSU has been held under 60 points in 3 of their 7 games and we don’t think they get there tonight. We also expect Missouri State to play MUCH better offensively in this game and they should get plenty of 2nd chances as they are a very good rebounding team (12th nationally in offensive rebounding) and North Dakota State is not. This veteran Missouri State team is the favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference and they have all kinds of motivation here. Lay the small number on the road. |
|||||||
12-04-17 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 218 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 218 Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams want to play fast and that makes for a very high scoring game. Orlando is the 6th fastest paced team in the league while the Hornets are 10th. Last season the Hornets were 19th fastest paced team but have made a concentrated effort to increase offensive possessions this year. Orlando is a top 10 scoring team this season at 108PPG and have topped 100 points in 19 of their 24 games this season. Charlotte has scored 100 plus points in 14 of their 21 games this season. Both teams are in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency rankings with the Hornets at 17th and the Magic 27th. Orlando played last night which helps our thought process here as their games after playing the previous night have averaged 224 total points per game. These two foes met earlier this season and combined to 233 total points which pushed their OVER record to 6-3 the last nine meetings. The bet here is OVER. |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 points - Philadelphia @ Seattle, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We see this game playing out very similar to the Seahawks most recent home game which was a 34-31 loss to Atlanta. The Seahawks defense is a shell of what it used to be with key injuries in the defensive backfield. We don’t expect them to slow down an Eagle offense that has put up more than 30 points in 6 of their last 7 games and the one time they didn’t top 30 during that stretch they scored 28 on a Carolina defense that currently ranks 2nd in the NFL. Seattle is the type of team that can play in a grinder game vs poor offenses like Arizona & San Francisco and win a low scoring type game. However, when they play a high scoring type offense, this team seems to change their tune. They know they must keep up on the scoreboard and Russell Wilson comes out flinging the ball all over the field as they have very little running game. Examples include their game 2 weeks ago here vs Atlanta (similar type explosive offense to Philly) in which they totaled 65 points and a few weeks before that in a game here vs Houston (with Watson at QB) in a game that had 79 points. Seattle won’t shut down this red hot Philly offense. This will be one of those keep up type games for the offense. They have showed they can get it done, especially at home where they have scored 31 or more in 3 of their last 4 games. When looking at totals in Seattle, weather is always a key. The forecast calls for 42 degrees, no rain, and almost no wind tonight (3 to 5 MPH). Perfect conditions. We like this one to fly OVER the total. |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH! We were on the Jets last week and feel we had the right side. Carolina was favored by 6 and won by 8 but were very fortunate to do so. The Jets actually outgained the Panthers by nearly 100 yards but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s in the 4th quarter (fumble return & punt return) and even with that were down by just 5 in the final minute. The way the game timed out the Panthers were forced to kick a FG with 20 seconds left as they were not able to run the clock out. NY was impressive offensively putting up 27 points and nearly 400 yards vs one of the top defenses in the NFL (Panthers are 2nd in NFL in total defense). QB McCown has been surprisingly good this year including over 300 yards vs the Panthers last week and we actually would take him over KC QB Smith who has been bad over the last month plus. The Jets offense should be solid again this week vs a KC defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. The Chiefs, on the other hand, simply can’t score anymore. Last week they faced a Buffalo defense that had allowed a whopping 135 points over their previous 3 games and Alex Smith and company were only able to put up 10 points and lost at home. Buffalo had been outgained in 9 straight games before putting up more yards than KC last Sunday. The Chiefs have now lost 5 of their last 6 games with their one win coming by a single point and have scored 17, 9, and 10 points over their last 3. The Jets are 3-3 at home and their 3 losses have come vs 3 of the better teams in the NFL (New England, Carolina, and Atlanta) and all were one score games. KC doesn’t rate anywhere near those teams right now yet they are still laying points here. We like the Jets to win this game outright. |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Packers last home game was a debacle as they lost 23-0 to Baltimore. They will absolutely want to atone for that performance and they picked up some momentum last week @ Pittsburgh. Although a loss, they took one of the best teams in the NFL, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL to the wire in a 31-28 win. After throwing up an egg at home the previous week, the GB offense played much better against one of the top defensive units in the league. QB Brett Hundley threw for 245 yards and 3 TD’s in his best performance yet. Now after facing two of the best defense teams on back to back weeks, we expect the offense to look good again as they take a big step down facing a Bucs defense that ranks last in the NFL in both YPG defense (395 YPG) and YPP defense (6.1). Tampa goes back to Jameis Winston at QB here and we actually think that is a negative for their offense. The Bucs were able to win 2 of their last 3 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, albeit vs the Jets and Dolphins, but he had them playing OK on that side of the ball. Winston has a bad shoulder and was simply poor losing 5 straight before he went on the shelf for a few weeks. We don’t think he magically starts to perform well here. Tampa is just 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Miami in a game the Bucs were outgained by 130 yards. They have been a terrible road team in general winning just 16 of their last 53 away from home. Green Bay should have a spark here coming off a solid performance. They also receive word that Aaron Rodgers has a chance to come back in a few weeks and with games vs Tampa and Cleveland the next two weeks, this team could push themselves right back into the playoff race. Packers are the side here. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Miami-FL +10 v. CLEMSON | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Hurricanes (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #325 |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Green Bay v. Belmont -14.5 | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Belmont -14.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Belmont will be hungry for a big win here at home after losing their last 3 games. The Bruins have played a very tough slate (72nd strength of schedule) including 4 top 100 teams. They are 2-2 in those games having beaten MTSU on the road and they topped Vandy by 9 here at home. However their most recent two top 100 games were losses @ Providence by just 1 point and @ TCU earlier this week. Now they take a HUGE step down facing a UWGB team that is among the worst shooting teams in the nation. The Phoenix have played a brutally easy schedule with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked 259th or lower. Their most recent two game home stand Green Bay faced two of the weakest teams in the nation. They beat Florida A&M (ranked 336th nationally out of 351) and won by 7. They followed that up with a double digit loss at home vs Stetson who’s ranked 310th nationally. Despite that weak schedule, the Phoenix are shooting just 34% on the season and only 31% in games away from home. They rank 341st nationally in eFG%. On top of that, this team loves to play up tempo which is a recipe for being on the wrong end of blowouts when you can’t shoot and playing a solid motivated team on the road. Belmont is a very solid program coming off a 23-7 years with 7 straight 20 win seasons under their belt. Unlike UWGB they shoot the ball very well coming in at 46th nationally in eFG%. Inside the arc they hit over 60% of their attempts (11th nationally) and that’s against a very tough schedule as we stated. They should destroy the Phoenix inside the arc where UWGB allows opponents to shoot over 55%. Belmont lost their most recent home game which is a rarity as this team has won 34 of their last 37 games on their home court. You can bet coming off 3 straight loss – to teams all rated much higher than GB – and off a home loss this team is itching to blow someone out. We think it happens here. |
|||||||
12-01-17 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
We will play ON #715 New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) over @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET. If you were a casual bettor and you looked at tonight's game you'd probably bet the home team here that has won 4 straight games and that's GETTING points. Utah's 9-4 SU home record is a little deceiving as only 4 of those wins came over teams with winning records. In their most recent four game winning streak they beat an awful Bulls team, good Bucks and Nuggets teams and a beat up, declining Clippers team. We really love the fact the Pelicans are coming off an awful loss at home to the Wolves where Anthony Davis was ejected. Prior to that game the Pelicans had 3 days off so they'll be rested and ready here. Utah doesn't have the depth on the interior to match Boogie Cousins and Davis with Rudy Gobert on the shelf so points in the paint will be easy to come by for New Orleans. The Pelicans have covered 7 of eleven road games this year and will get a much need W in Utah tonight. |
|||||||
11-30-17 | South Carolina v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple +1.5 over South Carolina, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU The Gamecocks come in with a 5-1 record but that was expected as they’ve played a very easy slate thus far. In fact, their game vs Temple tonight will be their first against a top 100 team this season. The highest rated team the SC has played was Illinois State at 117th and they lost that game. Other than that they’ve played 2 games vs 124th ranked Western Michigan and then nobody else ranked inside the top 200. They look like they are a bit overrated right now and that’s understandable as the Gamecocks were in the Final 4 a year ago. This isn’t the same team however with only 34% of their total minutes returning from last season. Temple, on the other hand, is a very experienced team with 75% of their minutes back from last year. The Owls have played only 4 games on the season (3-1 record) but even with that they’ve played a MUCH tougher slate to date. Unlike South Carolina, the Owls have played 3 top 100 teams and beat them all (Clemson, Auburn, and Old Dominion) and those games were on a neutral court. With that, this team has proven they can get it done away from home as they have not yet played a home game. While tonight’s game is another neutral site venue in NYC it’s much closer for Temple (just 96 miles away). Both of these teams score the majority of their points from beyond the arc but Temple is much better at shooting from deep (42% from 3 for Temple to 35% for South Carolina). The Owls are also defend the arc more efficiently allowing just 28% which is 24th nationally. We feel that Temple is and will be much better than people might think (undervalued) while South Carolina will have a big drop from last year’s magical run (overvalued). With Temple getting points here will grab it as we expect the Owls to win outright. |
|||||||
11-30-17 | Redskins -122 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -122 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington -122 on Money Line over Dallas, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET Both of these teams have had a week off since playing on Thanksgiving. Dallas has gone into the tank since RB Elliott has gone to the bench. Their offense has been non-existent putting up just 7, 9, and 6 points their last 3 games. The Boys have been outgained by 529 yards in those 3 games vs Atlanta, Philly, and LA Chargers. The defense has been equally as bad allowing 27, 37, and 28 points their last 3 and clearly miss top LB Lee. The Skins have played the toughest road schedule in the NFL already facing the likes of the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, and Saints away from home. They have proven they can hang with the league’s best on the road as they beat the Rams & Seahawks, while taking the Saints to OT and were tied with KC with under 10 seconds remaining in that game. Dallas was playing at full strength and playing at the top of their game when these two met in Washington in October. The Boys won the game 33-19 with Elliott leading the way with 2 TD’s and 150 yards on the ground. The overall yardage was fairly close but Dallas had a pick 6 late in the game to pull away. That win by Dallas gave the road team 7 straight covers in this series. The road team has also won 7 of the last 8 outright and the Redskins have covered 9 of the last 10 here in Dallas. With Dallas playing poorly and very little home field advantage (2-4 record at home this year) we see Washington winning this one. |
|||||||
11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #746 Northern Iowa (-1) over UNLV, 8Pm ET. We will play AGAINST the UNLV Runnin Rebels at Northern Iowa Panthers. The staff at Northern Iowa is really good and they'll have their team prepared for a game against the undefeated Rebels tonight. UNI has played the 94th toughest schedule to date featuring games against North Carolina and Villanova. The Panthers game against Nova was much closer than the final score indicates especially considering UNI didn't attempt a free throw in the game. UNLV is undefeated on the season at 6-0 and have some impressive individual statistics but a LARGE reason why they have such fantastic numbers is a result of a very weak schedule (344th). This will mark their first true road game as they are leaving the state of Nevada for the first time this season. This roster features 8 new faces and are young to begin with so a tough road date, facing a team off a loss will be a tall order. UNLV was picked to finish 6th in the MWC so clearly they've over-exceeded expectations to this point. The Panthers return 12 letterwinners from last year's team including 3 starters. The Panthers have the 8th best scoring defense in the nation and have held their last six opponents to under 53PPG on 33.5% shooting. UNI was picked to finish 2nd in the tough Missouri Valley Conference and have a 136-35 SU record at the McLeod Center. Easy call here with the home team. |
|||||||
11-28-17 | Stars -105 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars Money Line (-) over Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET |
|||||||
11-28-17 | Wizards v. Wolves OVER 211 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Play OVER in the Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves game, 8PM ET. - The average points scored in an NBA game this year is 211. The total on this game is set slightly higher than that but both teams averages suggest a higher scoring game. Both teams are right around the league average in pace of play with 97.5 possessions per game. When it comes to offensive efficiency ratings the Wizards rank 7th at 1.097 points per possession. Minnesota is slightly better at the 5th spot at 1.103PPP. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Wiz are slightly better than average while the Wolves are far worse with the 4th worst DEFF team in the league. Last year when these two teams faced off they produced total points of 223 and 217, both overs. When both teams are playing with rest they tend to score more too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this will be an 'average' NBA scoring game but the key stats suggest otherwise. PLAY OVER! |
|||||||
11-28-17 | Tenn Chattanooga v. Akron UNDER 134.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
ASA play on: #545/546 UNDER 134.5 Tennessee Chattanooga @ Akron, 7PM ET - We'll start with pace of play in this matchup as the tempo of this game sets up to be slow. Akron was the 2nd slowest team in MAC play a year ago and currently rank 279th in pace this season (out of 351). Tenn-Chat is very similar as they were the second slowest team in the Southern Conf last season and this year they are averaging just 70.5 possessions per game which is 271st. Both teams are also better defensively than they are offensively. Chattanooga is one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in all of college basketball at 301st but have an EFG% defense that is 193rd. The Akron Zips are 226th in OEFF but 46th in DEFF. The Zips are giving up just 63PPG this season which is 31st in NCAAB. The Mocs give up 73PPG on 45% shooting but their stats are a little skewed after playing an UAB team that is one of the higher scoring teams in college hoops right now. These two teams have less than 26% of their minutes played last year so it's not like veteran guys can step up on the offensive end of the court. UTC on a 9-1 UNDER streak while Akron has played UNDER in 46 of their last 63 home games. The BET HERE IS UNDER the total! |
|||||||
11-26-17 | Texas A&M v. USC -3 | Top | 75-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 10 PM ET This is a terrible spot for A&M. We realize they are a very solid team this year, but not in this spot. This will be the Aggies 4th game in the last 7 days. Not only that, they’ve been all over the country. They played in New York City last Monday & Tuesday. Then played at home on Friday. Now 2 days later they are on the west coast @ USC. Add that to the fact this team began the season in Germany vs West Virginia and they’ve put on more miles than most everyone in college basketball. A&M head coach Kennedy mentioned his team was sluggish at home Friday night in a win over Pepperdine. Fatigue was a factor according to Kennedy. USC is a team that was 26-10 last year, made it to the Sweet 16 last year and returns all 5 starters. They are 4-0 and should be well rested here having not played since Wednesday and that was a home game. USC beat A&M on the road last year 65-63 with the same starting 5 and we think with this situation they win and cover at home tonight. |
|||||||
11-26-17 | Titans v. Colts +3.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +3.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH The Colts are in a good spot here. They are rested and ready to go off a bye week and they are actually playing solid football right now. Their last 3 games were a 1-point loss @ Cincy, a win @ Houston, and a 3-point loss here vs Pittsburgh. Their tight loss vs Pittsburgh was a game the Steelers never led until the final FG of the game as time expired. Tennessee has had zero success here in Indy losing 11 straight. Not only has this team not won here in over a decade, t’s also a Titans team that isn’t very good on the road period. Their last 4 road games were a loss @ Miami, they were destroyed @ Houston, barely won in OT (12-9 final) @ Cleveland, and then just lost 40-17 @ Pittsburgh. They have also lost 15 of their last 16 AFC South road games! These two met in mid October in Tennessee and the Titans won 36-22. However, that was a very deceiving final as the game was tied at 22-22 with just 6:00 remaining in the game. That was also when the Colts weren’t playing nearly as well as they are right now. That win over Indy gave Tennessee a 1-16 record vs Indy over their last 17 meetings. That’s right, one win for Tennessee in 17 meetings. This Titan team is overrated with a 6-4 record but a -31 point differential which ranks 10th in the AFC! We feel the Colts with an improving QB Brissett has a great shot to win this game. Even if they don’t, we have more than a FG cushion with the number. Colts are the play here. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Washington State +10.5 v. Washington | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #183 |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Spurs v. Hornets | Top | 106-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - The Bugs are coming off a very tough loss last night to the Cavaliers by a point and this marks their 3rd game in four nights, second of a back to back. San Antonio meanwhile is rested AND coming off a loss so expect a bounce back here. As you would expect the Spurs have a decisive advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency unit and the overall efficiency differential. The Spurs have been dealing with a multitude of injuries this season but are now starting to get healthy sans Kawhi Leonard. We expect a Hornets team to have a hard time getting back up tonight to play another A level team after last night's road loss. Charlotte is just 15-20-1 ATS since 2015 when playing without rest. Play on San Antonio. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Loyola-Chicago -5.5 v. Kent State | Top | 75-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -5.5 over Kent State, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Loyola is dialed in right now having gone 6-0 to start the season with five of those wins coming by double digits. The Ramblers have a +14.4 point differential right now which is 51st in the nation. Loyola is getting it done on the offensive and defensive ends of the court as they are shooting over 55.5% (3rd best in NCAA) from the field and holding opponents to just 38.7% (46th best). Kent on the other hand is shooting 46% and allowing 44.2% to opponents. Loyola holds a significant edge when it comes to 3-point shooting over the Flashes with a 40.4% percentage compared to 28.7% (Kent 302nd in country). Last night Kent played Valparaiso who is rated lower than Loyola in our overall rankings yet the Ramblers are only favored here by a few points more than Valpo was last night and they won by 10-points. Loyola is on a 16-3 SU non conference winning streak and we like them to get a double-digit win here! Lay the points! |
|||||||
11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Dallas Cowboys (+1) over the LA Chargers, Thursday 4:30PM ET - The value in the number here is undeniable as the Cowboys, even without Elliott, should be a 3 or more point favorite. The Cowboys at home against the Packers with Rodgers were a 3-point chalk. The Chargers were at Oakland and the NY Giants a few weeks back and were 3-point dogs. I'll repeat that...the Chargers were 3-point underdogs AT THE NY GIANTS who are one of the 4 worst teams in the league! Dallas is coming off two horrible showings against two hot teams right now which has caused the oddsmakers to over-adjust this line. The Cowboys went to Atlanta 2 weeks ago and faced a desperate Falcons team and were blown out. Last week they played arguably the best team in the NFL, Philly, off a bye week. L.A. blew out the Bills on the scoreboard but benefitted from 6 turnovers and only outgained the Bills by just 36 yards. There is a big discrepancy in the strengths of schedule here as the Chargers have played the easier schedule yet their season stats are near identical. The Cowboys will hopefully have left tackle Smith back here but it shouldn't matter as the Cowboys rushing attack (4th in NFL at 140RYPG) should exploit the NFL's WORST rush defense of the Chargers (allowing 139RYPG). |
|||||||
11-23-17 | Vikings -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET The Vikes have been waiting for this one since losing at home to Detroit 14-7 back on October 1st. Minnesota outgained Detroit in the game and held the Lions to just 3.7 YPP while averaging 5.4 YPP. The difference were the turnovers as Minnesota had 3 and Detroit had none. The Vikings led at halftime but 2 fumbles in the 3rd quarter led to all of the Lions 11 second half points. Detroit had to come struggled each of the last 2 weeks to get by Cleveland at home and @ Chicago last Sunday. They were outgained by both of those struggling offenses and trailed by double digits in each. Get behind here and they are in big trouble against a Minnesota defense that is playing shut down ball right now. Last week they completely stymied the #1 scoring offense in the league holding the Rams to 7 points and only 254 total yards. Minnesota’s offense continues to click as the put up 24 points vs a very good Rams defense in that easy win. QB Case Keenum continues to play at a very high level as he now ranks 2nd in the entire NFL in QBR behind only Deshaun Watson who is out for the season. Detroit has been beating the poor teams but struggling against good teams. They have already lost at home to Atlanta, Carolina, and Pittsburgh with their home wins coming against Arizona & Cleveland. The Vikings are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now winning 6 straight games. They are better than Detroit on BOTH sides of the ball (5th in total offense to 16th AND 5th in total defense to 23rd for Detroit) and should have a little extra edge after losing at home 6 weeks ago. Minnesota wins and covers here. |
|||||||
11-22-17 | Detroit v. St. Louis -11 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis -11 over Detroit, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Defense and rebounding are the key here and St Louis has huge edges in both. Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 344th (out of 351) in defensive efficiency. They have already allowed 3 of their 4 opponents this year to top 100 points. Teams are shooting 53% vs Detroit overall and 43% from beyond the arc. Just a poor defense all around. This team is also a bad rebounding team. They rank below 250th in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding. In their two losses, their only games vs teams with a pulse, they were -32 on the glass. Those games came against Seattle & Virginia Tech. Their two wins have come against Michigan Dearborn & Houston Baptist (in OT). They lost at home to Seattle 102-71 and on a neutral court to Va Tech 111-79. In an interesting early season twist, we have some direct comparisons to make as SLU has also played those two teams. The Billikens won both of those games beating a good Virginia Tech team 77-71 on a neutral court and whipping Seattle 62-46 here at Chaifetz Arena in St Louis. While we mentioned that Detroit was -32 on the boards in those two games, the Billikens were +21 on the glass vs those same teams. While neither of these teams is a great shooting team, we expect SLU to benefit from extra opportunities from offensive rebounds. They should also shoot better than their average here as they are at home and facing a very poor defense. St Louis runs away with this one. |
|||||||
11-21-17 | Samford +11 v. Valparaiso | Top | 67-88 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #761 Samford +11.5 over @Valparaiso, 8PM ET - This is a very interesting line and the value clearly lies with Samford in this matchup. Let' start with the Bulldogs. They return 90% of their scoring from a season ago from a team that finished 20-16 overall. Conversely, the Crusaders lost 60% of their scoring and have 9 of 12 underclassmen on the roster. The comparable schedules for these two teams isn't even close as Valpo has played North Park, Trinity Christian College, Southern Illinois Edwardsville and Southeast Louisiana. They beat those four lower level teams handily. On the other hand, Samford is 1-3 on the year and the three losses came against Loyola Chicago, LSU and Arkansas who are a combined 10-0 this season. Samford was +10.5 at Arky, +8 at LSU and +7 at Loyola who is projected to finish 3 spots higher than Valparaiso this year in the MVC. Samford loves the role as the underdog as they covered all 4 games last year as a double-digit pooch. Grab the points! |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Lions won at home 38-24 over a terrible Cleveland team last week but it wasn’t nearly that easy. Detroit was actually down 24-17 late in the 3rd quarter and they were outgained by a bad Cleveland offense in that game. Speaking of the bad Browns offense, they put up over 400 yards last week on Detroit including 200 on the ground and were +10 in first downs. On top of that, Cleveland blew a number of scoring chances including getting inside the Detroit 5-yard line twice and coming away with zero points. Definitely a deceiving final score and a game Cleveland could have won. Chicago has been more than competitive at home. They beat both Carolina and Pittsburgh here and lost tight games to Minnesota & Atlanta. Last week was the first time they were favored at home this year facing Green Bay and the laid an egg losing 23-17. Detroit has a winning record at 5-4 but we feel they are overvalued because of that. The fact is they have been outgained in 6 of their last 8 games. On the season they are -14 YPG and -0.2 YPP which is very similar to Chicago who is -24 YPG and -0.2 YPP on the year. Chicago at home, getting points, with a big edge on defense (9th overall to 23rd) is a solid play. The Bears are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a home dog and Detroit is just 2-13 ATS after scoring 35+ points. Take Chicago. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Arizona University v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 7:00 ET: Game #366 |
|||||||
11-17-17 | Knicks +8 v. Raptors | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: New York Knicks (+8) over Toronto Raptors, 7:35PM ET - If you haven't noticed this Knicks team is much better than the past few editions and we like them as a dog here against the Raptors. Toronto is solid 3-game road trip with a pair of wins over Houston and New Orleans, face New York tonight and have Washington up next. Don't be surprised if the Raptors overlook Knicks here as they've beaten them 7 straight times. New York made some changes in the offseason and it's paying off. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games, and 7 of ten. Last season in two meetings on this floor the Raptors were favored by 7.5 and 10-points respectively. Tonight they are laying 8-points to the improved Knicks. Last year the Knicks finished the season with an overall offensive efficiency rating of 107.8 and a defensive efficiency rating of 111.6 (difference of -3.8). This year those numbers have improved to 110.2 (OEFF) and 108.7 (DEFF) for a difference of +1.5. So a better team is getting the same value here tonight. New York's improved field goal percentage defense will be the difference here. Grab the points! |
|||||||
11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -7 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Steelers have always excelled at home, the problem is, they’ve played very few home games this year. Of their 9 games on the season, only 3 have been at Heinz Field. They are 2-1 here this year with blowout wins over Minnesota & Cincinnati and an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville who’s turning out to be much better than most expected. Even in their loss to the Jags, the Steelers had more yardage but Roethlisberger threw a whopping 5 picks including 2 that were returned for Jacksonville TD’s. We don’t think the Titans are as good as their 6-3 record right now. We realize they’ve won 4 straight, however 4 of their last 5 games have come against 4 of the NFL’s worst teams (Miami, Cleveland, Cincy, & Indy). Last week at home they scored a TD with 36 seconds left to beat a struggling Cincy team 24-20. A week earlier at home they squeaked by Baltimore 23-20 despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards. In their last 3 road games they were creamed @ Houston 57-14, lost @ Miami, won @ Cleveland in OT. The Steelers played terrible last weekend @ Indy but picked up the 20-17 win. We expect a motivated effort back at home after that performance. The Pitt defense has been lights out this year (4th in the NFL in defensive efficiency) and we have a big edge on that side of the ball as Tennessee hasn’t been great (23rd in defensive efficiency). Offensively Pitt has struggled at times but is much more comfortable at home. They have the playmakers to put up big numbers here against the Titans. Tennessee relies heavily on the run and Pitt knows that. Look for them to shut down the run and force Tennessee to try and beat them through the air. That will be tough as Mariota is not at 100% with ankle and shoulder problems. It’s showed on the field as he’s failed to throw for 200 yards in 4 of their last 6 games. Pitt’s pass rush is among the best in the NFL ranking in the top 3 in sacks per game and sack percentage so when Mariota does throw, he’ll have pressure on him. Pitt is a money making 84-56-5 ATS (60%) the last 38 seasons as a home favorite of -3 to -7 and they have the advantage playing at Heinz Field on a short week. The Steelers roll up a big win tonight. |
|||||||
11-15-17 | Magic +5 v. Blazers | Top | 94-99 | Push | 0 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
We like the Orlando Magic (+5) over the Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - These two teams have some similar season numbers in regards to efficiency ratings with the one exception being the Blazers advantage in defensive efficiency. But we temper those numbers considering the Blazers have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NBA. Portland had the 24th worst defensive efficiency rating a year ago but are 3rd this year, which again is very misleading based on the schedule. Orlando is a top 10 team in terms of overall efficiency differentials and have played an 'average' schedule giving us a true indicator of where they stand. In their last five road games the Magic are 3-2 SU with two solid wins over Memphis and New Orleans. They lost most recently in Denver on the second night of a back to back and in Golden State. We like them to bounce back here against Portland who is 5-4 SU at home but only two of those wins came against teams with current winning records. The Blazers have a home point differential of just +2.4PPG while the Magic are 1 of just twelve teams in the league with a positive road differential (+1.9PPG). The number on this game is simply too high and we won't be surprised when Orlando wins outright. |
|||||||
11-14-17 | Raptors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors (+6.5) over Houston Rockets, 8PM ET - We like the points here with a good Raptors team coming off a loss against a Rockets team laying an inflated number. First off, the Rockets have won 6 straight but the wins aren't that impressive (Knicks, Hawks, Jazz, Cavs, Grizzlies and Pacers) who are a combined 12 games under .500. Now they step up against a Raptors team that is every bit as talented and motivated off a loss. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency but the Rockets surprisingly are better in defensive efficiency ratings. The Raptors were 11th in DEFF a season ago and will trend back to those numbers as the season goes on. Toronto was one of just six teams in the entire NBA a year ago to have a positive road point differential, so this veteran team is certainly capable of winning anywhere in the NBA. The Raptors are a contender in the East and are getting too many points here considering the Rockets were just minus -6.5 points against the Jazz and minus -5.5 points against the Cavs who are not playing as well as Toronto right now (similar in OEFF but drastic difference in DEFF). The Raptors were plus +2.5 points less than a month ago in San Antonio. Against the better teams in the league the Raptors have road results of: -4 points @ San Antonio, -5 points at Golden State, -1 point at Boston. Easy call here with the value and Toronto Raptors. |
|||||||
11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
We will PLAY ON the Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) over the Utah Jazz. We feel this is a short enough number to lay on the road with the Wolves who are coming off two straight road losses and will look to bounce back here. Minnesota hasn't played great overall defense this year but are trending in the right direction. They held three straight foes to under 100 points before playing the fast paced Suns and high scoring Warriors. Tonight they face a Utah Jazz team really struggling with their shooting. The Jazz have shot just 43.1% on the year which is 27th in the NBA. In their last five games they've hit less than 40% of their field goal attempts and have averaged just 99PPG. What makes matters worse for the Jazz is that they recently lost Rudy Gobert to a knee injury which takes away one of the league's best defensive centers. Utah has lost 3 of their last four home games with the lone win coming their last time out against the Nets who are again one of the league's worst teams. Minnesota has won 3 of their last six road games (Pelicans, Heat and Thunder) and all three were over better teams than tonight's Jazz team. Based on trending efficiency numbers we like the Wolves to get a 10-point win here. |
|||||||
11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers UNDER 38.5 | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 38.5 Points - Miami @ Carolina, Monday at 8:30 PM ET While this number is set fairly low (currently at 38.5) it really should be lower than it is. The oddsmakers won’t set this one in the mid-30’s but based on seasonal scoring stats that’s where it should be. These are two of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL with Miami dead last at 14 PPG and Carolina ranked 22nd at 18 PPG. That means these two average 32 PPG offensively. On defense Carolina ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing 17 PPG and Miami is 17th at 22 PPG. So defensively they allow just 39 PPG which is where this number is set. However, factoring in the offense is should be set lower. More than that obviously goes into setting the totals but the point is from a raw scoring number stand point this is set too high. Miami’s offense has been bad on the season but horrendous on the road. They have played 4 games away from home this season and scored a grand total of 45 points in those games (just 10 PPG). Facing a Panther defense that ranks #1 in total defense allowing just 274 YPG we don’t expect the Fins to magically break out offensively tonight. The Panther offense is far from potent topping 20 points in just half of their eight games this season. Their last 3 games they have 40 combined points for any average of just 13 PPG. We expect this to be a low scoring grinder type game and the UNDER is the play here. |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
Buffalo +3 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Bills are in the much better situational spot here. They are coming off a Thursday night game so a full 10 days to prepare while Saints will be playing for the 5th consecutive week. Buffalo is being overlooked here. They are 5-3 one the season including a perfect 4-0 at home with a +32 point differential. Their defense this season has been solid this season but very good at home allowing 16 points or less in 3 of their 4 games. Buffalo is also off their most disappointing performance of the season, a Thursday night loss @ Jets, so we expect a very solid game by the host in this game. New Orleans has won 6 straight games but they’ve had a very favorable schedule over the last month with 3 home games and their only road tilt coming @ Green Bay with Rodgers on the shelf. Their defense has been playing very well however, they’ve done so over the last month vs a bunch of bad offenses, including Miami (last in NFL in total offense), Green Bay (who looks just as bad without Rodgers), Tampa (whose been terrible offensively over the last month), and Chicago (who has scored 4 offensive TD’s over their last 4 games). Now they face a rested Buffalo offense who has averaged 28 PPG on their home field. We think the Saints are a bit overvalued right now and this is a tough spot for them. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS their last 15 as a home underdog or 3 points or more and we like them here. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #160 |
|||||||
11-10-17 | Magic -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
We will play on the Orlando Magic (-3.5) over the Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - It seems strange to be laying points on the road with the Magic but it's absolutely warranted here. Orlando has some very good metrics this season that may surprise a lot of casual bettors. The Magic are 9th in overall efficiency differential at +3.6 in the NBA while the Suns are dead last at -9.7. Orlando is in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency ratings, compared to the Suns who are bottom 5. The Magic are a top 5 offensive efficiency team, Phoenix is in the bottom 3. You can see for yourself these two teams are further apart based on efficiency differentials than the actual pointspread is tonight. Orlando is already 3-2 SU on the road this season and the three wins have come over much better teams than the Suns tonight (Grizzlies, Pelicans and Cavaliers). Phoenix has lost 4 straight games, 3 of which were by double-digits and two were home games against the Nets and Heat. Orlando is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 49% while the Suns struggle to shoot at just 43% and that will be a big factor in tonight's outcome. The Magic have covered 5 of the last six meetings against the Suns. Lay the points with Orlando. |
|||||||
11-09-17 | Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY UNDER 216.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET. The oddsmakers are projecting these two teams to score more than the league average of 211.4PPG but the metrics say differently. In fact, our computer analytics suggest 209.6 points in this contest. OKC is below average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings at 1.053 points per possession while the Nuggets are the league average at 1.072PPP. On the defensive side of the ball the Thunder are the second best defensive efficiency team in the league allowing jus t .992PPP. The Nuggets give up 1.067PPP which is slightly worse than the league average of 1.057PPP. The Thunder allow the least amount of points in the paint this season while the Nuggets are 11th. Meaning, no easy buckets for opponents. Neither team plays especially fast so it's not like we have to worry about a track meet here either. Denver is coming off two of the leagues fastest paced teams in the league in Golden State and Brooklyn and the results of those games have driven this Total higher than it should be. OKC and their opponents have combined to score more than 217 just two times this season. Nuggets on 7-2 home under run, OKC under 4 straight road games. |
|||||||
11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET This is a huge game for the Seahawks after losing at home last Sunday to Washington. While they came up short on the scoreboard losing 17-14 they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Skins by almost 200 yards. The Seattle offense crossed midfield into Washington territory on 9 of their 14 drives so they obviously blew a number of opportunities (3 missed field goals included). Now they sit a full game behind the Rams for the NFC West division lead and cannot afford a loss here. Luckily for them they are playing a bad Arizona team. The Cards are 4-4 but their wins have come against SF (twice), Indy, and Tampa who have a combined 5-21 record. Their other opponents (Dallas, Detroit, Philadelphia, and the LA Rams) have all beaten the Cards by double digits. Their point differential in those four losses, the only four winning teams they’ve played, is -80 points. The Cards are a limited offense that averages just 17 PPG. Now even more so with starting QB Carson Palmer sidelined and back up Drew Stanton under center. Stanton is a career 52% passer with 5 more interceptions (21) than TD’s (16). Because of that this offense has to rely heavily on RB Adrian Peterson and Seattle knows that. Peterson carried the ball a whopping 37 times last Sunday in San Francisco and on a short week, it might be tough for the aging RB to come back and be effective on Thursday night. Seattle has won 3 of their last 4 here in Arizona and the only game they didn’t win in that stretch was their 6-6 tie last season. The Seahawks have been great bouncing back after a loss winning 18 of their 22 games following a setback. We view Arizona as one of the worst teams in the NFL and Seattle one of the best. The Cards are off a win vs an 0-9 SF team while Seattle is off a loss. This sets up very nicely to lay the points with the Seahawks. |
|||||||
11-07-17 | Oilers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals - Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET |
|||||||
11-06-17 | Heat +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 80-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
PLAY ON: MIAMI HEAT - We will grab the points with the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat are off a road win yesterday against the Clippers and will be playing without rest here, but the Warriors aren't in the best scheduling situation either. Golden State is off a 3-game road trip with their last game coming in the higher attitude of Denver AND they have a big TV game on deck versus the Wolves. Miami was 18-23 SU on the road last year and had the 10th best road differential in the league (tied with the Cavaliers) at minus -1.8PPG. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA a season ago at +15.9PPG but they are just 2-2 SU at home this year, 0-4 ATS. Miami can contend here because they defend the 3-point line (4th in league a year ago) as good as anyone in the NBA. Last season the Warriors won their home game against the Heat by 12 and Miami beat them in South Beach. The Heat were 10-4 ATS last year as a road dog of 7+ points. Grab the points with Miami. |
|||||||
11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -125 | 57 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +3 over Detroit, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Situationally this game absolutely favors the Packers. They are coming off a bye which gave them 2 full weeks to cater their offense to and develop a gameplan for QB Brett Hundley. That’s also a big disadvantage for the Detroit defense who will see things from Green Bay that they can’t prepare for from their film study. Let’s not forget before their break GB played host to New Orleans who is one of the hottest teams in the NFL and led 17-16 into the 4th quarter. Packers will be ultra motivated here after hearing for weeks they cannot win without Rodgers in the line up. They have absolutely dominated the Lions here at Lambeau Field winning 25 of the last 26 meetings and Detroit was not favored in ANY of those games. The Lions are just 3-4 on the year and they are getting outgained by an average of 0.7 YPP. Detroit is 22nd in YPP offense putting up only 4.9 and they are 27th in the same stat defensively allowing 5.6. The Cats have now lost 4 of their last 5 games and this team can’t be trusted to lay points on the road where they are 1-6 ATS in that situation since November of 2013. Now playing a rested team that will be well prepared we expect another loss for the Lions here. |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Raiders v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Miami +3 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We expect the Fins to come out with some serious passion here after getting thoroughly embarrassed in their most recent game @ Baltimore. They lost that game 40-0 on a Thursday so they’ve had 10 days to steam about that one and get ready for Oakland. Remember Miami was playing quite well leading into that terrible loss winning 3 straight. While their offense has struggled at times Miami had scored 51 points in their previous 2 games leading into their Baltimore loss. They also get Jay Cutler back at QB here which will help. Not sure why the Raiders would be a full FG favorite on the road in this one. They are coming off a 34-14 loss @ Buffalo last week and are now on the east coast again. They did stay east but that often times messes up a team’s routine. On top of that Oakland has lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming at home by a single point. This isn’t the Oakland of last year. Much has been made of Miami’s offense being stale but let’s not forget the Raiders have scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Miami’s defense is very good ranking 7th in the NFL so we don’t look for the Oakland offense to get on track here. Oakland laying points on the road with a struggling offense and a defense that is ranked 26th in the NFL is not a good combination. Take the points on Sunday night. |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -7 over Washington, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Redskins are a mash unit right now especially on the offensive line. 4 of their 5 starters up front are questionable in this game. The Skins have lost 3 of their last 4 games with all 3 setbacks coming by at least 9 points. They are also in a tough situational spot coming off two huge NFC East games vs Dallas & Philly, both losses, and now they must travel across the country. The Seattle offense which struggled early in the season is now starting to heat up. After scoring just 9 & 12 points in their first two games of the season, the Seahawks have averaged 31 PPG since. They’ve also won 5 of their last 6 games. We expect the Seattle defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder as well after allowing Houston to score 29 points on them here at home in their most recent game. Before that, this defense has allowed more than 18 points only once all season. Seattle is simply a fantastic home team. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB they are 42-6 here at home (29-17-2 ATS). Better yet, if they are favored at home by a TD or less this team is 25-9-1 ATS! Washington, on the other hand, has won only 9 of their last 32 road games. Seattle is at home for the 2nd straight game and they roll here. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Hokies (-) over Miami Hurricanes, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #341 |
|||||||
11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
We will play on the NY Jets (+3) over the Buffalo Bills - 8:25 PM ET - The Bills are 5-2 SU on the year and looking like a playoff team in the AFC. The Jets are 3-5 SU and, well umm, look like the Jets. But seriously you should never bet games on just the 'eyeball' test as some underlying numbers tell us the Bills aren't as good as their record while the Jets are actually a little better than theirs. Buffalo has been outgained by foes in 6 of seven games this season and in those six games they were outgained by an average of 83YPG. The Bills offense is 28th in the NFL in total yards per game at just 303 and 25th in yards per play at 4.8YPPL. The Jets on the other hand are averaging more total yards per game at 307.9YPG and rank near the league average in yards per play at 5.2YPPL. Both teams have similar defensive statistics too with the Bills allowing 346.6YPG compared to the Jets 361.4YPG. They each allow right around 5.4YPPL defensively too. So why is there a drastic difference in their records and perceptions of their overall teams? Buffalo has 17 takeaways this season and just 3 turnovers while the Jets have 13 takeaways but 14 turnovers. The value in the number is clearly with the Jets in this game as they were +7 at Buffalo in the season opener and are now +3 at home. Take the home dog on a short week playing with revenge! |
|||||||
11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers (-1.5 runs) on the run line over Houston, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET |
|||||||
10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -114 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers (-) on the money line over Houston, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET |
|||||||
10-30-17 | Warriors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 141-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-) over LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - We will lay the points with the Golden State Warriors over the LA Clippers. I like the Clippers to be better than most experts are predicting but they aren't one of the best teams in the NBA either. Sure, they've gotten off to a 4-1 SU start without Chris Paul but they've also played Phoenix and the Lakers, two of the worst teams a year ago. The Warriors are just 4-3 SU on the season and coming off a home loss to the Pistons. Golden State has faced four playoff teams from a year ago and a much improved Pelicans team. Golden State is 15-3 SU off a loss their last eighteen games and are laying a marginal number here on the road considering their road point differential from a year ago was +7.4PPG (best in NBA). Golden State was 31-10 SU away in the regular season a year ago and is on a 38-11 SU streak as a road chalk. The Clippers aren't home dogs very often, just 7 times last year, but they were just 2-5 SU, 3-4ATS in that role. The clincher here is the dominance of the Warriors over the Clippers in recent years with a 10-0 SU record, which includes 4-0 last year with all 4 wins coming by double digits. The two games played on this court were 13 and 17 point margins in favor of Golden State. Lay the points on the road with GST. |
|||||||
10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
We're going to grab the points and the Broncos (+) on Monday night is this big AFC West rivalry. Both teams come into tonight's game having lost two straight games but both results were misleading. Denver outgained both foes but turned the ball over 6 times and blew several scoring opportunities. Kansas City on the other hand was outgained in both games by a total of 268 yards and they were plus one in total turnovers. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Broncos have a decided advantage with the 4th best DEFF rating in the NFL compared to KC's 24th. The Broncos allow just 4.5 yards per play compared to 6.1YPPL allowed by the Chiefs. Denver's defense is giving up just 258YPG this season which is on par with the Steelers who just held KC to 13 points and 251 total yards. Offensively the Chiefs hold an edge with the #1 ranked offensive efficiency numbers while the Broncos are 22nd. A big reason for Denver's poor overall OEFF numbers are their turnovers this season so if they value the football, it will translate to better numbers and obviously more wins. This is a great spot to take an undervalued 'dog' with a great defense getting a full TD. The Broncos are 14-5 ATS (15-4 SU) their last 19 division road games. Since 2012, home division favorites on MNF are a horrendous 3-12-2 ATS (20%) and road teams on MNF that have lost 2+ consecutive games are 11-3 ATS. In this rivalry the Chiefs have been favored by 7 or more points just three times since 1980. The play here is the DOG and points - DENVER BRONCOS! |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Colts v. Bengals OVER 42 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 42 Points - Indianapolis @ Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We are play OVER 42 in the Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals game. 1PM ET - We love the situation here as the oddsmakers have OVER-ADJUSTED the line on this game as the Colts are coming off scoring 0 points against the Jaguars while the Bengals put up just 14 in Pittsburgh. So now we have a very favorable line with two offenses that are better than they showed a week ago. These two teams just faced the two best defenses in the NFL last week when it come to overall defensive efficiency ratings. The Jags and Steelers both rand 2nd and 3rd in points allowed per game at less than 17PPG. So now these offenses will see defenses that are significantly worse as the Bengals are 11th overall in DEFF while the Colts are 30th. In comparable instances this season: The Bengals got off to a horrible start to the season offensively, then fired their O-coordinator. They then put up 291 yards and 20 points against the Packers (18th DEFF), 350 yards and 31 points versus the Browns (19th DEFF) and 398 yards and 20 points against the Bills 8th ranked DEFF unit. Now they go up against a Colts D that is 30th in terms of DEFF allowing nearly 32PPG on the season. Indianapolis was completely shut down by the Jags defense last week but in their two previous games against San Francisco and Tennessee they put up 26 and 22 points with an average of 372 yards per game. 5 of the Colts seven games this year have finished with 49 or more total points. Cincinnati hasn't played in many higher scoring games this year but they played four games against defenses ranked 8th or better in defensive efficiency ratings! The bet here is OVER! |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Vikings -10 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -10 over Cleveland, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET The Browns have been competitive at times at home this year, but when they venture away from Cleveland they have been beaten soundly. The only exception to that is a 3-point loss @ Indy who many feel is the worst team (yes worse than Cleveland) in the NFL. Their other games away from home were double digit losses @ Baltimore and @ Houston. The Browns are off a disappointing OT home loss to Tennessee. Now they must travel to London in a somewhat meaningless game for a team that is 0-7. The Browns have now lost 23 of their last 24 games and they are just 8-16 ATS in those games. This is a team that has led for a grand total of 2 SNAPS this season. Their offense has been terrible topping 18 points only once the entire season. They rank dead last in the NFL in offensive efficiency. On top of that they will be without their best offensive linemen (Joe Thomas) who is arguably their best player as well. It won’t get any better here facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 4th in total defense (283 YPG) and YPP defense (4.6). Only one team has reached 20 points on this Viking defense this year and that was Pittsburgh. The Vikings are fighting for the NFC North title while Cleveland has nothing to play for in London. We expect the Browns to do next to nothing offensively and Minnesota to pick up an easy win early on Sunday. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Dodgers +127 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 127 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers +125 over Houston, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET The Astros came with huge emotion in their World Series home opener last night and jump on LA starter Darvish who didn’t even make it through the 2nd inning. Darvish had done very well historically vs the Astros and in Houston but just didn’t have it last night. Now with their 5-3 loss in Friday, this becomes a must win for the Dodgers. We feel the mound advantage is absolute with LA tonight. Not only is lefty Alex Wood solid (16-4 with 2.81 ERA) but Houston’s line up struggles vs southpaws. As impressive as their overall record is, the Astros have a LOSING RECORD vs left handed starters at 25 wins and 26 losses. LA has won 18 of Wood’s last 23 starts. Morton is on the hill for Houston. He has been just OK in the playoffs allowing 9 earned runs in his 3 starts spanning 13 innings. On the season Morton allowed 175 base runners in 146 innings so we expect the Dodgers to have some opportunities here and we also expect them to take advantage of them. Morton also has struggled to get deep into starts as he hasn’t gotten out of the 5th in 7 of his last 9. Houston’s weakest part of their team this year is their bullpen so LA should have an advantage there. In this situation getting +125 is again value with LA |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A & M Aggies (+) over Mississippi State Bulldogs, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET: Game #208 |
|||||||
10-25-17 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 204 | Top | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM ET - Wait what, you're playing Under in a game with a team (Phoenix) that allows 125PPG? Yes, the Suns are the worst defensive efficiency team in the NBA and are giving up 1.184 points per possession BUT they've also played the 7th, 8th and 9th highest scoring teams in the NBA this season. Now they face a Jazz team averaging just 95.8PPG which is the second lowest number in the league. Phoenix made a coaching change and it looks like new head coach Jay Triano is holding his young players to a much higher standard. The Suns were trying to play as fast as they possible could and in the process they were playing sloppy, bad basketball. In their first two games they attempted 89 and 92 field goal attempts but in their most recent game they attempted just 77 field goals. Utah is the SLOWEST paced team in the NBA in terms of pace of play and a top 10 team in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just 1.022 points per possession. The Under has cashed in 18 of the last 26 meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Phoenix which have averaged just 189.2PPG. Bet UNDER! |
|||||||
10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -113 | 56 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +5 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET These two met in the season opener and Philly won 30-17. Since that opening weekend loss, the Skins have lost only one time and that was @ KC in a game that was tied with 8 seconds remaining. In their loss to the Eagles, Washington played their worst game of the season with 4 turnovers. Two of those were in Eagle territory, one was a fumbled punt, and one was fumble return for a Philly TD. In other words, the turnovers made a huge difference in the outcome of the game as they usually do. Washington QB Kirk Cousins was poor in that one but has been very good since. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for almost 1,000 yards with 8 TD’s and just 1 interception. Cousins has also been great in this spot going 9-3 ATS as a division underdog. The Eagles are getting a lot of publicity right now as the potential team to beat in the NFC. We know that situation changes almost on a weekly basis and feel the Eagles are bit overvalued right now. They did have a solid win most recently @ Carolina 28-23 but benefitted from 3 Cam Newton interceptions. Their other 3 wins, besides Washington, came against the Giants, Cards, and Chargers who have combined to win 6 games this season. As far as yards per play numbers are concerned (we feel these are most important), Washington gets the nod both offensively (6.1 to 5.9) and defensively (5.5 to 5.7). At worst, these two teams should be rated dead even on a neutral field to the 4.5 points Philly is laying here is off. Before their loss earlier this year, the Skins had won 6 straight vs the Eagles and they have a little extra motivation here. Even if they lose, we anticipate this game being close. Take the points. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Broncos v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET We expect a very good game from Denver after their embarrassing home effort last Sunday vs the depleted Giants. The Broncos were +146 yards in that game but turned the ball over 3 times (0 for the Giants) including QB Siemian throwing a pick 6. Denver is 3-2 on the season but their stats tell us they have outgained all 5 of their opponents this season. The Chargers began the season 0-4 but are back “home” off two road wins. They squeaked by the 1-6 Giants on the road and topped a struggling Oakland team by 1-point. The Bolts have ZERO home field advantage in LA this year and in fact, in the majority of their home tilts the opposing team has had more fans. You can expect the same here as the Bronco contingent travels well. The Chargers are 0-3 both SU & ATS at home this year. When these two met in Denver earlier this year, the Broncos came away with a 24-21 win. It wasn’t that close as Denver led 24-7 nearly midway through the 4th quarter when the Chargers added a few scores. The Broncos outgained LA 321 to 249 in the game. Denver has been a GREAT road team in division play winning 15 of their last 18 outright (14-4 ATS). We like the top defense in the NFL (261 YPG allowed) coming off a poor performance to win this game outright. Take Denver. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Colts | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are absolutely the superior team here. We feel they are better than their 3-3 record while Indy isn’t as good as their 2-4 might tell us. The match up here is a mismatch. The Jags are #1 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. The Colts offense ranks 29th in efficiency. They will struggle big time to put points on the board here. Last week the Jags faced off against the #2 scoring offense in the NFL (Rams) and held them to one offensive TD. A week earlier they faced a potent Pittsburgh offense and held them to 9 points. They have held half their opponents (3) to under 10 points. Now they face the least efficient offense they’ve seen this year. On the other side of the ball, the Jags have been up and down offensively, however they should break out here against the 32nd (last) most efficient defense in the NFL. Indy has two 3-point wins vs SF & Cleveland who are combined 0-12. In their 4 losses the Colts have a point differential of minus 82! Jacksonville is off a home loss to the Rams, a game in which they outgained LA by 140 but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s. Off that loss we expect a big performance here. The Jags outgain their opponents 5.4 YPP to 5.1 for a +0.3 YPP differential. The Colts have been outgained 5.2 YPP to 6.4 YPP for a -1.2 YPP differential. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the road this year with wins @ Pittsburgh and @ Houston. This is a low number and we like the Jaguars to control this game and get the easy cover. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Colorado v. Washington State -9.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:45 PM ET: Game #412 |
|||||||
10-20-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Play on: Boston Celtics (+2) over @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a 'L' last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don't have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | Oilers v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 goals in Edmonton Oilers at Chicago Blackhawks, Thursday at 8;35 PM ET |
|||||||
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 47 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 47 Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans, 8:30PM ET - The reports out of Tennessee is that QB Marcus Mariota is very limited right now and if he’s able to play will be confined to the pocket. That means a heavy dose of the running game against a Colts defense that is 21st in the NFL in our rush efficiency ratings. Breaking down the numbers even further we find the Colts rush D is even worse than the stats show as they’ve faced the two worst rushing offenses in in terms of efficiency stats (49ers 31st, Cardinals 32nd) and the Rams who rank 22nd. Now Indianapolis will try to stop a Titans offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing efficiency and averages 4.8 yards per carry which is 4th best in the league. In other words it sets up perfectly for the Titans to come into this game with a conservative game plan and protect their franchise QB. The Colts offense looked good in two games this year versus the 49ers and Browns who are a combined 0-12 SU this year. Tennessee’s defense is better than the statistics show as their aberration game versus the Texans, allowed 57 points, over 500 yard and 5 TO’s by O, has skewed their overall numbers. These two teams are also two of the slower paced teams in the league when it comes to pace of play. We like UNDER the number here. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos -11 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -11 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants are in trouble here. They are 0-5 and have lost 3 straight down to the wire games. Now after essentially having their playoff hopes dashed they must travel west to face a rested Denver team. How is NY going to score in this one? They can’t run the ball (just 77 YPG) and that won’t change here facing a Denver team that leads the NFL allowing only 50 YPG on the ground. So they must lean on an immobile Eli Manning to try and make something happen vs a very active and athletic Denver front 7. Manning was sacked 5 times last week at home vs the Chargers and we can expect the same here. The problem is, he has nobody left to throw to. His 3 top WR’s (Beckham, Marshall, and Shepherd) are all out. Denver’s offense will run the ball and work in play action to put points on the board here. They are facing a tired Giants defense that has faced an average of 67 plays per games this year (3rd most in the NFL). That tired defense has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. If Denver gets to 24 as we expect, that should be enough to cover here vs a Giant offense that will struggle big time in this game. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars OVER 42 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - LA Rams @ Jacksonville, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET This total has come down a few points from the opener and we feel it is now too low. We get the Jags defense ranks very highly, but they can’t stop the run. The Rams Todd Gurley will have a big day which will help set up the pass for a vastly improved Jared Goff. Let’s not forget the Rams are 2nd in the NFL in scoring averaging 30 PPG. Last week they scored only 10 points vs a very good Seattle defense but don’t be fooled by that number. LA had 375 yards in the game and blew a number of opportunities to put points on the board. They had a TD overturned when it was ruled Gurley fumbled on the 1 yard line. They were also shut out deep in Seattle territory on downs, missed a FG, and had two turnover in Seahawk territory. Before last week’s game, the Rams scored 35 or more in 3 of their first 4 games. The Jag defense looked great last week vs Pitt giving up only 9 points right? Not so fast. A Pitt offense, that had been struggling anyway, had 371 yards but 5 Steeler turnovers killed a number of drives. The 30 points put up by Jacksonville was obviously helped out by the Pitt turnovers but this offense is capable. They have scored 20 points or more in 4 of their 5 games and the Rams defense that has allowed 30 or more in 2 of their last 3 games. OVER is the play here. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #208 |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -3 over Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Panther defense has played very well all season. They just needed the offense to catch up and when and if that happened, this team would be very good. We’ll it’s happened. After scoring only 45 points over their first 3 games, the Cats have scored 60 points their last two games. Those were both road wins over New England and Detroit. After struggling early this year, QB Cam Newton has really found his groove throwing for almost 700 yards, 6 TD’s and just 1 pick his last 2 games. Last week’s win @ Detroit was close on the scoreboard (27-24) but Carolina dominated the game. They led 27-10 entering the 4th quarter and outgained the Lions by 120 yards. Philly comes in with a 4-1 record, however 3 of their 4 wins have come against the Giants, Chargers, and Cards who have a combined 3-12 record. This is also a tough spot for the Eagles going on the road in a short week. It’s also their 4th road game already this year. Carolina has played the tougher schedule and have averaged 5.5 YPP while allowing 5.1 (+0.4 YPP differential). Philly has played three of the worst teams in the NFL and they are averaging 6 YPP but allowing 6.2 (-0.2 YPP differential). Big edge defensively to the home team here and while the Eagles have better numbers offensively, the way Carolina is playing on that side of the ball right now we’re not sure there is any edge. Also, it looks like Philly will be without their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson who is in concussion protocol. That would be a huge blow to the Eagle offense. Carolina is the play on Thursday night. |
|||||||
10-11-17 | Bruins -118 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Money Line (-) over Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET |
|||||||
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 41 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
PLAY UNDER 41 Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, Monday 8:30PM ET - We like the spot here for an UNDER wager and expect a lower scoring game in this NFC North Division showdown. Chicago has made the switch to rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky which is an indicator they’ll take a “ground & pound” approach tonight with a conservative game plan to protect the rookie. Actually, beating the Vikings on the ground has been what’s worked for the Bears in the past. In last year’s two meetings the Bears rushed for 158 and 183 yards against Minnesota and their home win over the Vikes was a 20-10 (under) win. Minnesota will probably take the same approach here as they rank 12th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game and will focus on the running game in an effort to protect their QB Bradford who is coming off an injury. The reason we mention the running games is simple. Games that feature more runs than passes are typically lower scoring with less clock stoppage and less plays run. Chicago has a MUCH better defense than they rate statistically (20th in efficiency ratings) as they’ve played four of the NFL’s top 12 offenses this year. They’ve held EVERY ONE of those offenses below their season averages and three of the four teams produced their lowest offensive output of the year versus the Bears. Chicago has held the Falcons (8th), Packers (10th), Steelers (7th) and Bucs (12th) to a combined 206 total yards less than their season averages! An overrated Vikings offense will have a tough time scoring here. On that note, the Vikings rank 5th in the NFL in offensive efficiency rankings but let’s now examine who they’ve played. Minnesota has played Saints, Steelers, Bucs and Lions. Against the Saints (20th DEFF) they racked up 470 yards and 29 points. Versus the Bucs (25th DEFF) they put up 34 points and 494 total yards of O. But against two similar defenses to the Bears (Steelers & Lions) they managed 237 and 284 total yards and 16 total points. Do you see where we are going here? These two offenses rank 27th and 29th in yards per point offense and we can’t see many points being scored in this one. Under is 4-1 the L5 meetings in Chicago and 8-3 Under last 11 overall. BET UNDER! |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +1 over KC, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET KC comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 ATS record and we feel they are overvalued at this point. Last week was one of the luckiest covers you’ll ever see as the Chiefs scored 9 points in the final 7 seconds of the game to win and cover 29-20 vs Washington. Their defensive TD as time expired was the only time KC was covering the entire game. Since their switch to Watson at QB, Houston is really playing well. They are 3-0 ATS with Watson at the helm and 2-1 SU. Their lone loss was @ New England 36-33 in a game they really outplayed the Pats. The outgained and had more first downs than NE in that game on the road. Last week, Houston beat a very solid Tennessee team 57-14 outgaining them 445 to 195! After scoring only 1 TD on 203 total yards in their opening season loss to Jacksonville, the Texans have averaged 376 YPG and 34 PPG under Watson’s direction. So the offense is clicking right now and should do well against a KC defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in total defense. Houston rates a large edge defensively (5th in the NFL) and has one of the top defensive lines in the league. That should give KC all kinds of problems with an offensive line that rates one of the weakest pass protecting unit which has already given up 16 sacks on the season. Houston won here vs KC last year 19-12 and we really like them to win this game at home on Sunday night. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Bills are a false 3-1 in our opinion. They’ve been outgained in 3 of their 4 games (only outgained the Jets) and they are poor offensively scoring only 18 PPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they topped Atlanta on the road but a close look at the boxscore reveals they were thoroughly outplayed in that game as they were outgained by 100 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. Same with the week before at home vs Denver. Thus we have a team that has won 2 straight games outright as an underdog but has been outplayed on the field. That creates a perfect spot to go against them here. On top of that, Buffalo is playing back to back road games here and this is their 3rd trip away from home in their first 4 weeks of the season. Cincinnati is an undervalued team in our view. They started the season scoring only 9 total points in their first 2 games. They fired their offensive coordinator and replaced him with a veteran (Zampese) and they have responded with 55 points their last 2 games. Their offense is starting to click. Their defense is very solid having held 3 of their 4 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The also get one of the top defensive players back here (LB Burfict). There is a reason the 1-3 team (Bengals) are favored over the 3-1 team here. We like this spot and we’ll take Cincinnati. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | 49ers v. Colts OVER 44.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points - San Francisco @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET These two offenses have struggled but for the most part they’ve been facing off against very good defenses. Indy has faced Seattle, Arizona, and the LA Rams all of which who rank in the top 13 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. The one poor defense they faced was Cleveland (30th in efficiency) and they put up 31 points on the Browns. Very similar situation for the Niners. They have faced Seattle, Arizona, and the Rams as well along with Carolina. All 4 of those teams rank in the top 13 in defensive efficiency. Now each get to face a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league and we think the offenses will shine here. San Fran has a very good offensive mind as their head coach as Shanahan was the OC for Atlanta’s record season last year. Indy’s QB Brissett had looked better each week and is getting more comfortable as the starter. The Indy defense has allowed 28 points or more in 3 of their 4 games including twice allowing 46 points twice (Rams & Seahawks). San Fran’s defense was solid last week but that was against an Arizona offense that has been outright bad. In their previous 3 games they allowed 25 PPG. These two offense finally get to face a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league and it will show. OVER is the play. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Kansas State v. Texas -4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#408 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON: Texas Longhorns (-) over Kansas State, 7 PM ET - Sometimes long-term trends are so well-known that they actually create big value in the other direction when the situation is right and that is precisely the case here. Kansas State, under head coach Bill Snyder, has long been known as a great play on team when they are a road dog. However, in this particular case, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Longhorns have played a much tougher schedule than the Wildcats have so far this season but certainly they won't be worn down here. Remember the great game the Longhorns played against USC earlier this season? That was in mid-September and was followed by a bye week. Then last week Texas finally played again and it was a Thursday game (solid win at Iowa State) so they do have a rest edge over a Kansas State team that played on Saturday. The Wildcats got the win over Baylor Saturday but the Bears have been dreadful this season. That's noteworthy because the Wildcats other wins have come over Central Arkansas and Charlotte! Kansas State lost their only tough game (Vanderbilt) and certainly the Commodores are not comparable to the Southern Cal team that the Longhorns went toe to toe with. Texas got surprised by Maryland in the season opener which proved to be a wake up call, and a good thing for the Horns. Since that loss, the Longhorns are on a perfect 3-0 ATS run. The rush defense of the Longhorns has been fantastic (41 yards per game) in their last 3 games and has allowed under 100 yards per game on the season which is 15th best in the nation. That is a major problem for K-State which averages 43 rushes per game (32nd in the country) and 243RYPG (16th). But the Wildcats impressive rushing stats are very misleading as they’ve faced Baylor (120th in rush D), Vandy (116th) and Charlotte (93rd). Kansas State to have to try and beat the Longhorns through the air with a passing attack that is averaging just 128 passing yards per game against FBS schools (Central Arkansas is an FCS school) and is 122nd out of 130 schools. The Cats are going to struggle to move the ball here and they only scored 7 points in their lone road game this season while UT has put up 97 points in their two home games this year. Home team has covered 5 straight....Look for a home blowout in this one. |
|||||||
10-06-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees, Friday at 5:05 PM ET |
|||||||
10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 55.5 Points - New England @ Tampa Bay, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET This number is set very high (currently at 56) however we don’t think its high enough. First we have two bad defenses in this one. New England is the worst defense in the NFL allowing 457 YPG on a ridiculous 7.4 YPP. Tampa is 30th in total defense giving up almost 400 YPG. On top of that Tampa is terrible stopping opponents on 3rd down allowing a 50% success rate which is last in the NFL. They allow offenses to keep drives alive and score points. The Pats have allowed 42, 20, 33, and 33 points in their four games this season. While the Patriot defense is allowing plenty of points, their offense has scored the 2nd most points in the NFL. That has led to ALL high scoring games so far this season – 69, 69, 66, and 56 points. After holding Chicago to 7 points in their first game, they allowed nearly 500 yards to Minnesota (Vikings with back up QB) in their second game. Last week their game with the Giants totaled 48 points but is should have been much higher. There were 3 missed FG’s and 2 missed 2-point conversions in that game. On top of that, the Bucs had a first and goal and the 1-yard line and had to settle for a FG. Both teams will put up plenty of points in this one. Take the OVER |
|||||||
10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-29 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points - Washington @ KC, Monday at 8:30 PM ET With both defenses ranked inside the top 10 in overall efficiency, we definitely like the UNDER here. Washington’s defense was simply phenomenal last week. They faced a potent Oakland offense last week and held them to 96 yards passing and 32 yards rushing. That’s 128 TOTAL yards and just 2.7 YPP vs one of the very best offenses in the NFL. Oakland was averaging 386 YPG on over 6 YPP coming into last week. Since their opening game in New England, the KC defense has allowed just 20 & 10 points to Philly & the Chargers. The KC offense has also tapered back a bit after their opening 43 point outburst vs New England. Since that they’ve scored 27 & 24, however many of those points have come very late in games. In fact, of their 51 points they’ve scored overall the last 2 games, 21 have come in the 4th quarter with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Their game vs Philly was sitting at just 26 points with 6:30 remaining in the game and hit 47. Lots of scoring late in their recent games which has made their games look higher scoring than they probably should have been. This total is set at 49.5 and 5 of the 6 games these two have played this year have stayed under that number. KC is a VERY STRONG Under team at home going 43-21-2 to the UNDER since 2009. Too many points here. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -13 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Seattle offense finally started clicking last week putting up 27 points in Tennessee on 6.3 yards per play. The defense on the other hand was disappointing allowing 33 points to the Titans. You can bet they’ll play with passion this week after last week’s ugly performance. They should get it right against a Colt offense that has been held to 13 or under in 2 of their 3 games. Last week Indy scored 31 points on the Browns but that was the Browns. The fact is, they’ve been outgained in all 3 of their games and quite significantly vs the Rams (-148 yards) & the Cards (-123 yards). The Seattle defense allowed 17 & 9 points their first two games of the season and we like them to hold Indy down on Sunday night. The Seahawk offense should continue on their upward trend vs an Indy defense that has given up at least 28 points in 2 of their 3 games. The Colts have played one road game this year and that was a 46-9 whitewashing @ LA Rams. This is a must win for Seattle with a 1-2 record. Losses @ Green Bay and @ Tennessee are nothing to be ashamed of. The Hawks are 29-16-1 ATS (65%) at home since Russell Wilson took over at QB and we think this one has the makings of a blowout. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Giants v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points - NY Giants @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET The Giants offense has been struggle but looked like they turned the corner last week against a very good Philadelphia defense. They put up 24 points on 6.5 yards per play. In reality, they should have scored much more. That’s because they were stopped on downs at the Philly 1 yard line and 13 yard line. The offensive line is getting better and with Odell Beckham at or near 100% this is definitely a much better offense than they showed in their first few games. Now they are clicking a face a TB defense that allowed Minnesota to rack up nearly 500 yards last Sunday with their backup QB (Case Keenum). The Tampa defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL after two games allowing over 6 YPP. The strength of the Bucs is definitely their offense. They actually played quite well last week averaging 6.7 YPP vs a very good Minnesota defense. Jameis Winston threw 3 interceptions in Minnesota territory which would have most likely led to points. The Giant defense is good but they look a step behind last year’s unit as they’ve already allowed 24 or more points in 2 of their 3 games. This total is set too low and we take advantage by grabbing the OVER. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Saints -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -3 over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - @ London This is just a horrible spot for the Fins. Let’s not forget this team has yet to play at home this season. They opened with a win in LA vs the Chargers, then traveled east and lost in New York to the Jets, and now they head overseas to play in London. Not an ideal situation. Their defense has been poor allowing 375 yards to the Chargers in week 1 and 336 to a bad Jets offense last week. Offensively they’ve scored just 25 points in 2 games. The two teams they’ve faced are 1-5 on the season. New Orleans is 1-2 but they’ve played 3 playoff caliber teams. They lost to New England and @ Minnesota when the Vikes were at full strength. Last week they dominated the Panthers on the road winning by 21 points. Drew Brees has been sharp with 6 TD’s and no interceptions. Neither defense is very good, however we have a big advantage offensively with the Saints. They are averaging nearly 2 yards per play more than the Fins despite playing the tougher schedule. The situational edge also favors the Saints and we’ll lay the points. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Georgia -7.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 41-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
10* TOP PLAY ON: #179 Georgia (-) over Tennessee, 3:30 PM ET - The Bulldogs have a fantastic defense and their strength on offense is running the ball. The Volunteers weakness on defense is stopping the run. You can see where we're going here! Georgia is averaging 223.2 rushing yards per game and Tennessee is allowing 242.2 rushing yards per game. While it is true that the Vols number was impacted by the fact that they got run all over by Georgia Tech's option attack in Week 1, it is also true that the Volunteers only other tough match-up was against Florida and they allowed nearly 6 yards per carry in that game. The Yellow Jackets got to Tennessee for over 6 yards a carry too. With the Bulldogs controlling the ground game in this one (Georgia only allowing 97.5 yards per game even though they've faced tough running teams), the only question that remains is whether or not the Vols will be able to move the ball through the air effectively. The fact is that this is highly unlikely. Tennessee QB Quinten Dormady is a junior but he only had thrown 39 passes coming into this season. Now that Dormady has become "the guy" for the Volunteers he has struggled against tougher competition. Even against weaker competition, UMass last week, Dormady struggled enough that the Vols tried their freshman back-up. That didn't go well either. The Vols offensive production has been a concern as they only scored 17 points last week versus the Minutemen! Also, when Dormady faced his first truly tough test he threw three interceptions at Florida. The Bulldogs will surely present the toughest defense he has faced. Additionally, the Bulldogs are highly motivated here as they have blown back to back 17-point leads to Tennessee the past two seasons. Last year's blown lead was culminated with a 43-yard hail mary pass for the game winner for the Vols at Georgia. The Bulldogs again have the talent to get up by at least 17 points on the Vols this year. The difference is that their defense is not only not going to "break" we don't even expect it to "bend". Tennessee doesn't have the firepower, experience, or talent that recent Vols teams have had when they mounted those big comebacks versus the Bulldogs. Georgia Coach Kirby Smart has this team playing extremely well and the Bulldogs won't take their foot off of the gas in this one until the final whistle. The far superior team gets a double-digit win. |
|||||||
09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the Chicago Bears plus the points over the Green Bay Packers. This sets up as a potential ‘rush doubling underdog’ which is ALWAYS a solid bet in the NFL. Green Bay comes into this game with one of the worst rushing offenses in the league averaging just 69 yards per game which is 30th in the NFL. The alarming part is that the lack of a ground game has come against 2 of the eight worst rush defenses in the NFL. In comparison the Bears have the 8th best rushing ‘O’ in the league at 121 yards per game and they’ve played two of the 10 best rush defenses in the NFL. Yes, the Packers have a huge advantage at the QB position with Aaron Rodgers versus Mike Glennon but a banged up offensive line for the Packers is causing major issues for Green Bay’s offense. The Pack are one of the league leaders in total passing yards per game but also rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per play which is not a good sign for Packer fans. Chicago has faced two of the league’s best offenses this season in the Falcons and Steelers and more than held their own. The Bears are 12th in total defense allowing 321YPG. The Bears with running back Howard will challenge a Packers rush defense that is 21st in the NFL in stopping the run. Take the big dog here with the rushing edge support. Thursday & Monday night underdogs are 6-0 ATS this season. |
|||||||
09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Tonight we will play UNDER 47 in the Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals game. Kickoff is 8:30PM ET. NFL scoring is down dramatically right now as going into this weekend league games were averaging just 39PPG. That number is significantly less that last year’s average total points scored of 45.8. In 2015 that number was 44.8PPG. While the ‘markets’ will eventually start to correct, we don’t see it happening here tonight. These two teams rank in the bottom third of the league in yards per point with the Cardinals averaging 17.9YPPT (24th in NFL) and the Cowboys averaging 18.3YPPT (25th). But both rank top 10 in the league in yards per play (Arizona 5th @ 4.6YPPL - Dallas 8th 4.9YPPL) and total yards allowed per game defensively. Both teams have played in one lower scoring game (unders) and one higher scoring game (overs) this season but let’s examine the higher scoring games. Arizona played in Detroit in the season opener and the two teams combined for 58 total points BUT 21 came in the final 4 minutes of play and several scores were set up by turnovers. Last week Dallas went to Denver and gave up 42 points to the Broncos. Based on Denver’s total yards (380) and the league average of yards per point allowed (15.8) the Broncos should have scored just 24 points. A 105 yard INT for a TD certainly didn’t help the under bettors last week. After giving up 42 last week the Cowboys defense will play better this week and the running game will again be the focus offensively after just 40 yards rushing a week ago. Arizona was one of the best defensive teams in the league last year and will be up for the task here. Our math suggests just 42 points in this game. BET UNDER! |
|||||||
09-25-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET |
|||||||
09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +8 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Packers are really banged up. Both starting OT’s are injured which makes a huge difference. RT Bulaga may play here but he is not at 100%. LT Bakhtiari is most likely out. The top back up at both tackles spot, Jason Spriggs, was just put on IR. Rodgers will also most likely be without WR Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson looks like he’ll try to play but not 100% Defensively they will be without arguably their top player DL Daniels. Green Bay’s offense just hasn’t been able to get in synch (19 & 23 points) and won’t on Sunday with all of the injuries. They are also playing a Bengal defense that has been very good allowing just 33 points total in their two games. The Bengal offense has obviously struggled. However they do have weapons with WR AJ Green and RB Mixon and they are bound to play better. This Cincy team is backed into a corner in a must win spot with an 0-2 record. They don’t even have to win this game, just keep it to a TD or less. 6 of their last 7 losses dating back to last year have come by less than a TD. Take the points. |