Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-13-24 | Bulls +4 v. Pacers | Top | 132-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
ASA BET ON Chicago Bulls +4 @ Indiana Pacers – 7PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bulls and fade the Pacers who played last night in Oklahoma City and won as an underdog. The Bulls are 18-15 ATS on the road this season and have won 5 of their last seven road games outright. We like the fact that the Bulls are coming off a blowout home loss in their most recent game on Monday to the Mavericks which should have them focused here. Indiana played last night making this the second of a back-to-back and also their 3rd game in four nights. When playing without rest this season the Pacers have the worst spread record in the NBA at 2-9 ATS with an average loss margin of -8.6PPG. Indiana is also 9-11-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Both teams have negative point differential since the All-Star break with the Pacers at minus -1.9PPG, the Bulls are minus -3.4PPG but clearly both of those differentials would net a cover in this one. Indiana has some depth concerns with Mathurin out for the season and the road team has covered the spread in both meetings this season. Grab the points. |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic -7 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA BET ON ORLANDO MAGIC -7 vs Brooklyn Nets – 7 PM ET - We are on the Magic in this one. Orlando has the best spread record at home as a favorite this season at 13-3 with an average Margin of Victory in those games of +13.4PPG. Overall at home the Magic are 20-9 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Nets on the other hand are 10-20 SU away from home, 11-19 ATS which is the 2nd worst road spread record in the league. When playing on the road, the Nets lose by an average of -6.3PPG. The Magic look to bounce back after 2 straight losses, with the most recent being at home to Indiana. Brooklyn meanwhile is coming off a huge upset road win over the Cavs and should revert back to their losing ways tonight. The home team has covered 5 straight in this series. |
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03-13-24 | Kansas State v. Texas -4.5 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas -4.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Texas is the more well rounded team in this match up and our power ratings have the Horns favored by 6.5 in this game so we like the value. Texas is ranked in the top 55 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they hold a huge edge on the offensive end of the court here. They rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and KSU ranks 143rd. The Longhorns rank in the top 55 in both FG% and 3 point FG% while the Cats rank 255th and 297th in those stats. KSU does play high level defense however they just don’t put up enough offense away from home to come up with wins. In fact, they won only 1 road game the entire season in Big 12 play and that was @ West Virginia who was by far the worst team in the conference this season. Their PPG numbers drop by nearly 8 points on the road and they average only 0.96 PPP away from home. Texas had 4 Big 12 road wins and blew a 14 point lead @ Baylor late in the season or they would have had another one. The Horns offensive numbers stay fairly consistent on the road as they average 77 PPG at home and 75 PPG away from home. They also put up a solid 1.063 PPP on the road this season. Not only is Texas the much better offensive team they should get more opportunities on that end of the floor as well. That’s because KSU is a turnover machine and a poor defensive rebounding team. The Cats rank 349th in offensive turnover rate (and Texas is solid at creating turnovers) and they rank 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage (and Texas is a solid offensive rebounding team). Those 2 things should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Longhorns. Should UT need to close this one out late with FT’s they are hitting 77% in conference play, 2nd in the Big 12. These 2 met about a month ago and Texas won by 6, however they led by 12 with under 3:00 minutes remaining in that one. This is a pretty short number for Texas and we’ll lay it. |
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03-13-24 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 126 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - These are the #1 and #2 teams in the Big 10 in regards to defensive efficiency. They both rank in the top 12 nationally in that statistic with both allowing less than 0.95 adjusted PPP. Both defenses also make opposing offenses really work for shots, opponents average a shot every 18 seconds, putting them both in the top 40 in that category. While we have the 2 best defensive teams in the Big 10, we also have the 2 worst offensive teams squaring off in this one. They rank 13th and 14th in conference scoring and both rank outside the top 325 in FG%. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc in this one as Rutgers ranks 346th nationally making just 29% of their triples and the Terps rank 352nd making only 28%. In their 2 meetings this season they combined to make only 13 combined 3’s and shot just 21% combined from deep. These teams met twice this season and totaled 109 points both times. Both games were low possessions games (60 & 65) and we expect the same tempo in this one. Rutgers & Maryland have combined to play 62 games this season with 40 of those going Under the total. They’ve also gone Under their last 6 meetings and not one of those 6 games reached 130 points. Playing in an unfamiliar NBA Arena (Target Center in Minneapolis) we would suggest their shooting numbers may end up worse than they normally are. Under is the play. |
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03-13-24 | USC -3 v. Washington | Top | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Washington, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - USC has played as well as anyone in the Pac 12 down the stretch. They were just 3-10 in conference play on February 10th and then caught fire and won 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 losses coming vs Colorado in double OT and vs Washington State by 3 points and the Trojans led both of those games by double digits in the 2nd half. Those 2 teams are rated #2 and #3 in the Pac 12 behind only Arizona who still sits as a top 10 team nationally and a likely #1 or #2 seed in the Big Dance. Speaking of the Wildcats, USC just rolled Arizona by 13 points to close out the regular season. Since mid February, USC is ranked in the top 20 nationally in overall efficiency per Bart Torvik. These 2 just met 11 days ago and USC beat Washington on the road 82-75. The Trojans led that one by 15 points with under 6:00 minutes to go while the Huskies largest lead of the game in that game was just 4 points. UW led that game, their home finale so motivation was high, for just 2 minutes and that’s it. That was despite the Huskies making 5 more 3 pointers than USC so outscoring them by 15 points from beyond the arc. We don’t see anything changing on a neutral court just 11 days after USC dominated Washington on the road. Lay the small number. |
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03-13-24 | Florida State v. Virginia Tech OVER 152.5 | Top | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#645/646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points – Virginia Tech vs Florida State, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - These teams met twice this season and totaled 158 and 151 points in those 2 games so we’re looking for this one to get into the 150’s again at worst. FSU is the fastest paced team in the ACC and they land in the top 30 nationally in adjusted tempo. VT is middle of the pack in tempo both in the ACC and nationally so they are not a slow paced team. The Hokies played 6 ACC games vs teams ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and 4 of those games reached the 150’s or higher. The only 2 that did not were their 2 games vs Louisville (totaled 143 & 144) and in those games the Cards, who rank 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency & eFG%, didn’t do their part offensively not hitting 70 in either game. We don’t anticipate that being a problem for FSU who ranks 4th in the ACC averaging 77 PPG in league play. Va Tech’s offense ranks #1 I the conference in eFG% and since February 1st the rank 19th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Hokies lead the ACC in FG% as well and FSU is 4th in that category. Both offenses are better than the opposing defenses as FSU & VT rank 12th and 13th in eFG% allowed in ACC play and 9th and 13th in PPG allowed. Because both have solid offenses and shaky defenses, it wasn’t surprising to see these 2 combine to hit 47% of their shots in the first 2 meetings. We expect similar shooting results here. 4 of the last 5 in this series have gone Over the total and we look for another high scoring game on Wednesday. |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 94-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - These two teams met in Milwaukee in mid-January and produced 285 total points in OT. The oddsmakers had set an O/U number of 247 on that game. Both teams shot 52% overall, and 41% (Kings), 47% (Bucks) from beyond the arc which are also well above season each team’s season average. That seems to be a reoccurring trend when these two teams get together as they’ve gone Over the Total in 10 straight meetings. The last seven meetings have averaged 257 points scored. The Bucks defense has certainly improved since Doc Rivers took over but they have given up 125, 123 and 117 in their last three games against similar offensive teams to the Kings. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.195PPP and play at the 4th highest rate in the league. The Kings are 12th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game and have the 13th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.175-points per possession. Milwaukee is the 8th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 37.6% and the Kings are last in defending the 3PT line allowing 39.8%. The Kings rely on volume shooting to score with the 5th highest FG attempts per game and the 10th best shooting percentage. Granted the NBA has been on an Under trend but we like Over here. |
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03-12-24 | Pacers v. Thunder OVER 240.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 240.5 Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We loved this bet on the opening number of 236 before it was immediately bet up to the current number of 240.5. There is still some value in this number, and we expect a game in the mid-to-upper 240’s. We have the Pacers who rank 2nd in pace of play at 102.1 possessions per game and are the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.206-points per possession. OKC is the 3rd most efficient offense in the league at 1.204PPP and rank 11th in tempo. Indiana has the best overall team field goal percentage in the league at 50.4% and rank 6th in 3PT percentage. The Thunder are the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA at 50.1% overall and #1 in 3PT% at 39.4%. Both teams average over 120PPG offensively ranking 1st and 3rd in scoring. This will be a high possession game with two great shooting teams that should get over this number. |
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03-12-24 | Miami-FL -1.5 v. Boston College | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -1.5 over Boston College, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Hmmm? Miami enters this game with 9 straight losses, facing a BC team that beat them twice this year yet the Canes opened as a favorite? Strange line and we agree Miami should be laying points in this one. These 2 faced off just last week and BC pulled the upset @ Miami. The Canes lost starting G Pack about 15 minutes into that game and he didn’t return. He didn’t play in the regular season finale @ FSU but we’re hearing there is a chance he plays here. This is a winning Miami program that simply has had a poor season. Entering the year they had a 29-9 SU record in ACC play the previous 2 seasons, they won the ACC last year, and they went to the Final 4. They returned 3 starters and some key reserves from that team along with head coach Larranaga who has nearly 1,200 career wins. They were expected to have a very good season but finished just 6-14 in ACC play. We expect them to play well in this tourney with new life and shot to make the NCAA tourney if they run the table. The Canes have a veteran post season team and played pretty well against the top teams in the ACC taking North Carolina to the wire twice (lost by 3 & 4 points), beat Clemson, and took Wake Forest to OT on the road where the Deacs were 16-1 this season. While Miami is a winning program that simply had a poor season, BC is not used to winning. They are 17-14 this year but haven’t had a winning season since 2018. In ACC play they finished 8-12 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in league play facing each of the top 4 teams only one time (all losses). We don’t think BC can beat this rejuvenated Miami team 3 times in one season. Lay the small number on Tuesday. |
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03-11-24 | Raptors v. Nuggets UNDER 232.5 | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 231.5 Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting against the move on this game and will grab the added value with an Under wager. This Total opened at 226 and has climbed to 231.5 where it currently sits. Denver is making a run at the #1 seed in the West with a current 8-1 SU run. They are coming off a blowout win over Utah in which they scored 142 points. After tonight they go on the road, so we are betting they will try to conserve some energy tonight before the trip and limit starters. We also expect them to play much slower tonight as they have a huge size advantage over the Raptors with Jokic, Gordon and Porter Jr. The Raptors are short a few starters tonight and it’s showed in recent games with 3-straight losses to the Pelicans, Suns and Blazers. Toronto shoots 47.5% as a team (15th) and 35.5% from beyond the Arc (24th). Toronto has the 20th Net Offensive Rating in the NBA on the season and are averaging just 109PPG over their last 5-games. The Nuggets have the 10th best overall defense on the season when it comes to Net Ratings but since the All-Star Break they have been even better. We also like the fact that the Raptors have played at a much slower pace in their last 3-games, well below their season average. This game fits the current Under narrative in the NBA. |
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03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's UNDER 135.5 | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
#871/872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Santa Clara vs St Mary’s, Monday at 9 PM ET - These teams played 2 very different games when they faced off this season with one totaling 121 points and the other 159 points. The one thing that was consistent in both match ups was both were low possession games (58 & 65 possessions). That’s how St Mary’s plays ranking 358th in adjusted tempo and 350th in possessions per game. Santa Clara prefers to play fast but based on the possession numbers of their 2 meetings, STM will again control this tempo and make it a slow game. In their high scoring game that reached 159 points, the 2 teams combined for a whopping 44 made FT’s which was an aberration as both rank outside the top 200 (St Mary’s outside the top 300) in percentage of points from the FT line. Neither teams gets there very often as they combined to average 36 FT attempts per game yet in that contest they attempted 61. Much of the scoring was late with SC fouling to try and catch up. In fact, with under 2:00 minutes remaining the teams had scored 129 total points and put up a ridiculous 30 points from that point on. The other meeting that totaled 121 points was more indicative of how we think this game will play out. STM’s defense is one of the best in the country. They rank #1 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed in WCC play. They are allowing just 58 PPG on WCC games which is by far the best in the league. SC’s offense struggled to shoot well vs STM’s this season hitting just 40% of their shots (both games combined) and their offense has regressed drastically over the last month. For the season Santa Clara ranks 103rd in eFG% (5th in the WCC) but since February 1st they rank 263rd in that category. Defensively they’ve gotten much better ranking 36th in eFG% allowed and 63rd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. That’s not a huge surprise as SC head coach Herb Sendek (former HC at NC State & Arizona State) has always been defensive minded. Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this slow paced game so we’ll grab the Under. |
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03-11-24 | St. Thomas +3.5 v. South Dakota State | Top | 49-59 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Thomas +3.5 over South Dakota State, Monday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have these 2 teams rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is absolutely with St Thomas in our opinion. The reason SDSU is favored by 3 points here is they beat St Thomas in both games this season and won the Summit League with a 12-4 record although both of these teams finished 20-12 overall. If we take a closer look at their match ups this year, both games went to the wire with SDSU winning by 1 and 5 points. Statistically the Jackrabbits shot lights out but still struggled to pull away and win by margin. SDSU hit well over 50% in both games and combined to make a ridiculous 57% of their shots in those games including almost 52% from deep. That’s around 10% higher than their season average and almost 18% higher than their season long 3 point average. St Thomas combined to shoot 46% in those 2 games (a little below their season average) and from beyond the arc they were 22 for 63 (35%) which is also just below their average. So SDSU shot lights out and St Thomas shot below their averages yet both games came down to the wire. The largest lead in either game was 9 points and both held that advantage at some point in each game. AEM was advantage STM despite SDSU winning the league. The Jackrabbits held a +4 FT’s made advantage in those games combined and the rebounds were nearly dead even. St Thomas had better adjusted efficiency margins in conference play despite the Jackrabbits winning the league. If South Dakota State comes back to earth shooting wise in this game, we’re confident that St Thomas will win. If not, we still expect a close game similar to the first 2 and the points are worth taking. |
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03-10-24 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 171 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 171 Points – Illinois vs Iowa, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These teams met at the end of February in Illinois and put up 180 points with the Illini winning 95-85. It was an up tempo game as to be expected with 74 possessions. These teams rank #2 and #3 in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo and both are in the top 70 nationally in that statistic. Both teams shot well in that game but not fantastic each hitting right around their average. They combined to hit 48% of their shots overall and 35% of their triples which again is near their season averages. Both made 20+ FT’s which isn’t a surprise as Iowa hits 80% of their freebies in league play and Illinois makes 77%. Both offenses rank in the top 10 nationally in efficiency and more recently, since February 1st, the Illini are #1 nationally in offensive efficiency and Iowa is 8th. On the other end of the court both defenses rank outside the top 100 and they have been worse recently, again since February 1st, ranking 227th and 236th in defensive efficiency. In conference play, these are 2 of the worst in the Big 10 with Iowa ranking 13th in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% allowed while Illinois ranks 9th in defensive efficiency and dead last in 3 point FG% allowed. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games averaging 89 PPG during that 10 game stretch. At home, the Hawkeyes are averaging 90 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 80 points in all but 3 of their 16 home games this year. These teams are combined 41-19 to the Over this season and we anticipate another high scoring game in Iowa City on Sunday. |
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03-10-24 | Pacers v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON #518 ORLANDO MAGIC -1.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 6:10 PM ET - The Magic are coming off a humbling game on Friday night in New York as they were beaten handily 74-98. That loss snapped a 5 game winning streak and we expect them to bounce back here. Orlando has quietly been playing fantastic basketball with a 13-4 SU record in their last seventeen games. The Magic have been a money printing machine at home as a favorite with a 13-3 ATS record while covering 7 in a row. Not only have the Magic been covering at home as a Chalk but they’ve done it in impressive fashion with an average +/- of +13.4PPG in those games. Indiana comes into this game off a home loss to the Timberwolves and are 2-4 SU their last six games overall. The Pacers have been average on the road this season with a 15-14-1 ATS record. In their last twelve road games they have just 5-covers. The difference between these two teams is obvious as the Magic rely on the 3rd best defense in the league, while the Pacers are anchored by the 2nd most efficient offense. In the two regular season meetings thus far the Magic and their defense have won twice, both in Indiana, by 12 and 7-points. We will back the better defense again today. |
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03-10-24 | Michigan State v. Indiana +3.5 | Top | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions facing off in Bloomington on Sunday. IU has played their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks winning 3 straight games as underdogs including 2 on the road. Their most recent home game was a solid win over a good Wisconsin team and the Hoosiers were 4 point dogs in that game. They have high level talent along their front line with Ware (former McDonald’s All American) and Reneau who are both peaking at the same time. Those 2 have combined for 97 points and 51 rebounds in those 3 consecutive wins. MSU has lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during that run coming at home on Wednesday night vs a banged up Northwestern team. That wasn’t an overly impressive 4 point win over a Wildcat team that played without 2 starters. Sparty has been a poor road team this season to say the least winning only 3 of their 9 Big 10 road games. Those 3 road wins have come against Michigan (the worst team in the conference), Maryland, and PSU who all have losing Big 10 records and have a combined mark of 18-39 in Big 10 play. MSU is ahead of the Hoosiers by only 1 game in conference play and IU actually has the better eFG% numbers on offense and defense in Big 10 games. This is also a revenge game for the Hoosiers as they lost their most recent match-up with the Spartans (Feb of 2023). Indiana was the ranked team in that match-up but it was the first home game for Michigan State since the on-campus shooting and they had an inspired game. The Hoosiers did win the last time they hosted the Spartans and we like Indiana getting points in their home finale on Sunday. |
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03-09-24 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 234 | Top | 142-124 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - This game is going to be a track meet between a pair of teams that love to play fast. The Pistons are the 8th fastest paced team in the league at 100.1 possessions per game, the Mavericks are 7th at 100.3. Neither team is good defensively as the Pistons allow the 3rd most points per possession at 1.202PPP, the Mavs give up 1.179PPP which ranks 22nd. Detroit just played Brooklyn and the two teams combined for 230 total points. Prior to that game the Pistons had faced 6 teams that are much better defensively than the Mavericks and those games were all lower scoring which has had an impact on this O/U number. Dallas is the 6th highest scoring team in the league this season at 118.7PPG. Detroit averages 112.1PPG. The Mavs defense has allowed 120+ points in 6 of the last seven games. Given the pace of play and poor defenses we expect a ton of points in this one. |
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03-09-24 | Utah v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
#700 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon -3.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We played against Utah on Thursday night @ Oregon State, the worst team in the Pac 12, and picked up a win with the Beavers rolling 92-85 as a 7.5 point dog. The game wasn’t even that close as OSU (5-14 record in the Pac 12) led by 17 with just 4:00 minutes remaining. That continues Utah’s terrible run on the road where they are now 1-8 both SU & ATS in Pac 12 play with their only win coming by 1 point @ UCLA. They average a whopping 11 fewer points on the road compared to at home (84 PPG at home / 71 PPG on the road) and as you might expect their efficiency drops from 1.28 PPP at home to just 1.00 on the road. It’s not only the offense that has drastically differing results on the road the Utes defense allows 67 PPG and home and 80 PPG on the road this season. They allow just 0.90 PPP at home and that rises to 1.12 PPP on the road which is just a huge difference. They’ll get an angry Ducks team on Saturday as Oregon just lost here vs Colorado (2nd best team in the conference per KenPom ratings) by a final score of 79-75. The Buffs shot lights out at 55% in that game and 47% from 3 point land yet it was a 1 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Oregon had a 3 point shot to tie with 6 seconds left but missed. That loss dropped the Ducks to 12-3 SU at home this season with their 3 losses coming vs Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, the 3 best teams in the conference. In their first meeting @ Utah the Ducks lost 80-77 despite the Utes hitting 50% of their shots and 44% of their triples and the host attempted twice as many FT’s (22 to 11). Despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Utes largest lead of the game was 6 points and it took 2 FT’s in the final seconds to salt the game away. Speaking of FT’s, now back at home we expect Oregon to have the edge at the stripe where they’ve hit 75% in league play (2nd in the Pac 12) while Utah has made only 60% of their freebies (dead last). These 2 teams have met 10 times in Oregon with the Ducks winning 9 of those games. We’ll fade the team that can’t win on the road vs the Ducks in their home finale and off a rare home loss. |
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03-09-24 | North Carolina v. Duke -4.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke -4.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met on February 3rd with UNC pulling out a 93-84 win. In that game the Heels shot 50% overall and attempted 14 more FT’s and they held the Blue Devils a normally to just 8 assists and turned them over 11 times (Duke 18th in assist to turnover ratio so an aberration). Since that loss, Duke has been the better team winning 8 of 9 games with their only loss coming @ Wake Forest by 4 points. Since that they rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed only 1 of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. Since Feb 1 the Devils rank 4th nationally in overall efficiency behind only UConn, Tennessee, and Arizona. This team is playing at the top of their game right now and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Tar Heels have shown some struggles as of late losing 3 of their last 10 games and struggled in home wins vs Miami (won by 4 but Miami played without their starting PG) and NC State (won but trailed by double digits in the 2nd half). UNC has played only 1 road game since February 13th and they beat a struggling Virginia team in that game but scored only 54 points. Duke has a solid edge shooting the ball ranking 22nd in FG% compared to 170th for UNC (10th in the ACC in eFG%) and in the Heels 9 true road games they are shooting under 40% from the field. 5 of UNC’s 6 losses have come in road/neutral games and they average 12 PPG less on the road than they do at home. A win by Duke here moves them into a tie for 1st place with UNC and we like this red hot Devils team to get their revenge at home on Saturday vs the arch rival. |
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03-09-24 | Memphis v. Florida Atlantic OVER 162 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 162 Points – Memphis vs Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These teams met 2 weeks ago and Memphis won that game 78-74. The total in that game was set at 160 and it went Under yet now the total on Saturday is set higher at 162 (opener). That was a fast paced game with 70 possessions and we expect a similar game here as both like to play up tempo, especially Memphis who ranks 18th in adjusted tempo. Neither team shot well in that game with both hitting 44% of their shots (which is below both of their season averages) and from beyond the arc it was a brutal effort as they combined to make only 12 of their 55 attempts for 22%. That was well below their season averages of 35% (Memphis) and 36% (FAU). They each made only 11 FT’s in the game which was low as both rank in the top 100 in FT’s made per game at 17 (FAU) and 15 (Memphis). Both dominated the offensive glass in that game (both rebounded 36% of their misses leading to 2nd chances and we expect that to remain the same as neither team is very good on the defensive glass (both outside the top 200). We have the #1 & #2 most efficient offenses in the AAC facing off here in a game and both average 83 PPG on the season. We expect both teams to reach the 80’s in this one and we’ll call for the Over to hit early on Saturday. |
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03-08-24 | Heat v. Thunder OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - The Thunder are home, rested and ready to put up a big number against the Heat. Miami meanwhile is playing the second night of a back to back off a game in Dallas last night. When these two teams met in Miami in mid-January the O/U set on that game was 232.5. The Heat dictated tempo on their home court and that game finished with 228 total points. Now the Thunder will dictate pace of play and they rank 8th for the season in possessions per game at 100.3. The Thunder had the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA averaging 1.220PPP. OKC is also 3rd in team EFG% at 57.5%. Miami is slightly below league average in terms of offensive efficiency, but they make up for it with the 10th best 3PT% in the league. Miami is shooting 37.5% from Deep and the Thunder are average in terms of defending the 3-point line. The Heat has a strong Under record on the road this season but they will be forced to score to keep up with the Thunder in this one. Bet OVER! |
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03-07-24 | Spurs +10.5 v. Kings | Top | 129-131 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Sacramento Kings 10 PM ET - Even with big man Wembanyama sidelined for this one, we like the Spurs here and the double digit points who are in a very favorable scheduling situation. The Kings are coming off a huge showdown with the Lakers in L.A. on Wednesday night and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. They have lost two straight at home to the Bulls and Heat. The last time the Kings won at home was against this Spurs team by 5-points 127-122. San Antonio has been playing under the radar since the All-Star break with a 2-5 SU record, but they have covered 5 of seven. The visitor in this series has covered 5-straight games. Since the ASG these two teams have very similar Net Ratings with the Kings ranking 15th at -2.1, the Spurs are 23rd at -2.3. The big reason the Spurs have played well recently has been the improvement of their overall defense. In their last five games the Spurs are allowing 1.140-points per possession, which is 13th in the league. The Kings defense ranks 21st in DEFF over that same 5-game span. There was a time when the Kings home court was incredible but this season they are closer to average with a 16-11 SU record and an average +/- of +0.6PPG. Grab the points with San Antonio. |
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03-07-24 | Celtics v. Nuggets +1.5 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Denver Nuggets +1.5 at home vs. Boston Celtics, 10 PM ET - This could very well be a Finals preview and should be a great game. We will side with the home team Nuggets though as their home numbers are just too much to overlook. Both teams come into this game off a recent loss. The Celtics blew a big lead to the Cavs on Tuesday and lost 104-105. The Nuggets trailed the Suns at home from most of the game before outscoring them 21-12 in the 4th to send the game to OT where they eventually lost. Since the start of last season, the Nuggets are 68-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. They have only been home underdogs 4 times and they won all four by an average of +10.5PPG. Boston is really good as a road team with a 50-29 SU away record their last 79 away. If you compare every key statistic between these two teams you find they are very close offensively and defensively, but we like the home court advantage of Denver. The World Champs gets this win on Thursday. |
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03-07-24 | Northern Kentucky +7.5 v. Wright State | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
#797 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Kentucky +7.5 over Wright State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These 2 just met last Saturday and now they face off in the Horizon League Tournament. In their game last Saturday, Wright State played at home (same scenario as tonight) and they won by 6 points over NKU. The Raiders shot 54% in the game (51% for Northern Kentucky) and outscored the Norse by 18 points for the 3 point line (+9) and from the FT line (+9) and even with that big advantage the game went to the wire. NKU was playing great basketball heading into that game winning 6 of 7 prior to Saturday’s tight loss. Wright State finished 1 game ahead of Northern KY in the Horizon League with a 13-7 record (12-8 for NKU) and this line is set to high due to that + the fact that WSU won both regular season meeting (by 6 & 7 points). The Raiders are a terrible defensive team, one of the worst in the country, ranking 343rd in defensive efficiency, 351st in eFG% allowed, and 355th in PPG allowed giving up 80 PPG. Really tough to lay this many points in a win or go home situation vs a team that is much better defensively. NKU ranks 2nd in the Horizon League in defensive efficiency and 3rd in eFG% allowed. The Norse allow just 71 PPG which is 2nd best on the conference (league games) while Wright State’s defense is giving up 82 PPG in conference play (last in the league). According to statistics from KenPom.com, when the “better team” (in this case, Wright State) won both previous matchups (which they did), the third game becomes a true toss-up — the better teams win only about 49.3% of the time in these cases. Getting 7.5 points is a great buffer here in a game we think is close. Take the points with Northern Kentucky. |
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03-07-24 | CS-Northridge v. Hawaii -6 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii -6.5 over Cal State Northridge, Wednesday at 11:59 PM ET - After a 4 game winning streak in early February, CS Northridge is trending down losing 4 of their last 5 games and the alarming part is all 4 losses came at home. 3 of those 4 losses came by double digits and now they make the tough travel to Hawaii to take on a team that has won 7 of their last 10 games and currently ranks (per KenPom) as the 4th best team in the conference. The Rainbow Warriors currently sit in 5th place in the league and are fighting for a top 4 finish which would give them a bye in the conference tournament. During this 10 game stretch, Hawaii has faced 3 of the 4 teams that sit ahead of them in the Big West standing and they’ve beaten all 3 by 17, 8, and 8 points. They’ve played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet still have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers when compared to CS Northridge. The Matadors have a losing record in conference play and their offense has generated less than 1.00 PPP (conference games) while ranking dead last in 3 point FG%. These 2 met back in January and CSN pulled the upset beating Hawaii as a 2 point dog. The Rainbow Warriors shot just 33% in that game and made only 13 FT’s compared to the Matadors 25 out of 30 from the stripe (80%). Not to be expected here on the road from a Northridge team that ranks last in the Big West making only 67% of their freebies. The Matadors have traveled to the islands to play Hawaii 11 times in their history and lost 9 of those games. We see double digit Hawaii win late on Wednesday Night. |
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03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 90-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - This line is telling us Giannis will not be in the lineup for the Bucks tonight which means we will back the Warriors at home minus the points. The Bucks have clearly seen a resurgence since the All-Star break with 6 straight wins and a defense that ranks best in the NBA over that time period. As a Bucks fan I temper my enthusiasm though as two of those wins came against Charlotte, one versus a struggling Bulls team and one against Philly who had injury issues. The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Boston on Sunday in a National TV showing. I like Golden State to bounce back with a concentrated effort at home. The home team in this series has dominated with 6-straight wins including the Bucks getting a W on Jan 13th at home 129-118. You might be a bit surprised to know that the Bucks are 3-5 ATS as an underdog with a negative average differential in those games of -10.5PPG. Golden State has dominated Eastern Conference teams this season with a 16-7 SU record and a +/- of +3.3PPG. Given the circumstances we like the Warriors minus the short number. |
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03-05-24 | Pacers v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 137-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Indiana which saw the Pacers win at home 133-111 as a +2-point dog. Based on that spread this line should have the Mavericks as a much bigger favorite. The big difference in that Pacer win was a fantastic shooting night at 56% overall and a +8-rebound differential. The Pacers rely heavily on their offense and outscoring opponents but since the All-Star break they have seen a significant drop in their Offensive Net Rating and overall shooting percentages. For the season the Pacers rank 1st in the league in team FG% at 50%, but in their last five games that number has dipped to 47.4% which would rank them 13th. Also, in their last five games their 3PT% had dropped to 32% which is the 25th lowest percentage in the NBA over this recent 5-game period. We like Dallas to get a measure of revenge here from the recent L in Indianapolis. Dallas is also coming off a loss at home to Philadelphia on Sunday in a national TV game. Prior to Sunday’s home loss, the Mavs had won 4-straight at home with two of those wins coming against Phoenix and OKC. The Mavericks are 16-10 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +3.8PPG. When laying points this season the Mavs have a 21-14 ATS record with a plus/minus of +5.8PPG. Indiana is 9-9-1 ATS as a road dog with a net differential per game of minus -9.6PPG. Dallas will find their shot tonight against a Pacers defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% allowed at 50.5%. Lay the short number with Dallas. |
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03-05-24 | 76ers -2 v. Nets | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2 at Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a much better situation with a bet on the Sixers here laying a short number against the Nets. Philadelphia looked good in their win over the Mavericks on Sunday and were relatively healthy without Embiid who is out for the foreseeable future. The Sixers didn’t shoot overly well against the Mavs but still put up 120 points on 45% shooting overall and just 30% from Deep. This Philly team is 2-3 SU their last five games but the two losses came to the Celtics and Bucks who are playing extremely well at the moment. Now they step down in class against a 24-36 Brooklyn team that also has a losing home record. The Nets are coming off a game against the Grizzlies on Monday making this the second night of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is 2-7 SU this when playing without rest and have an average negative differential in those games of -15PPG. This will also be the Nets 3rd game in four days. The 76ers had beaten the Nets 9 straight times before their most recent game which was a blowout loss on their home court. Paybacks are a bitch and that’s exactly what happens here tonight. |
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03-05-24 | Purdue v. Illinois -2 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Illini have 1 home loss in Big 10 play and that was with Shannon (22 PPG) out. He is back and putting up huge numbers to say the least averaging 26.5 PPG over his last 7. Speaking of Shannon, he also missed the game @ Purdue, a game the Boilers won at home by 5 points. Since his return the Illini offense has taken it to another level ranking 1st nationally in offensive efficiency since February 1st putting up a 1.34 PPP. The Boilers have a 2 game lead in the Big 10 so they are fairly safe even if they lose this game. They have 3 conference losses, all the road, vs Nebraska (34th nationally), Northwestern (46th), and Ohio State (53rd) and they now face an Illinois that is far superior to all of those teams (ranked 12th nationally per KenPom). In Big 10 play, Purdue has played only 2 teams that rank in the top 40 (Wisconsin & Nebraska) and they’ve only faced one top 50 team period since February 4th. That was Michigan State on Saturday and that was just a 6 point home win. The Boilermakers have been winning some tight games with only 2 double digit wins over their last 9 games. We feel they are more than due to get bounced and playing the 2nd best team in the conference on the road is where it will happen in our opinion. The emotion will be high in Illinois’ final home game and biggest home game of the year so we’ll call for the win and cover. |
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03-05-24 | Alabama v. Florida -1.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
#646 ASA PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bama in a tough spot here playing their 4th game in 11 days with 3 of those games coming on the road. The Tide were knocked off at home on Saturday vs Tennessee which was a huge game that was a battle for 1st place in the SEC. With the home loss Bama it will now be really tough for Bama to catch the Vols with a 1 game deficit with 2 games remaining and they lost both games to Tennessee this year so they’d lost the tie breaker as well. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alabama is a bit flat in their final road game after that disappointing loss on Saturday. They’ve shown to be vulnerable on the road with 3 SEC losses away from home and their best conference win was @ Mississippi State who sits at 8-8 in league play. Every other team they beat on the road has a losing conference record. Florida is also off a loss @ South Carolina on Saturday. It was a game the Gators led by double digits in the 2nd half, outrebounded and outshot (48% to 47%) the Gamecocks but were -11 made FT’s in the 6 point loss. Now back at home where they are 13-1 SU with their only loss coming by 2 points to Kentucky. Their average score at home is 87-71 so winning by +16 PPG. These 2 just met @ Alabama in late February and the Gators gave the Crimson Tide their toughest conference home game of the season (minus Bama’s home loss to Tennessee on Saturday). The Gators led for much of the game including by 10 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game but lost 98-93 in OT. In that loss, the Gators led at half and Bama didn’t take their first lead of the 2nd half until 4:00 remaining in the game. Prior to their game vs Florida, the Crimson Tide were undefeated at home in SEC play winning by an average margin of +21 PPG. Catching Florida in this spot as a home dog (line opened Bama -1) is some solid value in our opinion. The Gators have been a home dog only 1 other time this year vs a very good Auburn team and Florida rolled the Tigers 81-65. Even with the line having flipped to Florida as a small favorite at the time of this posting, we’ll call for the Gators to get a home win on Tuesday |
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03-04-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Flames -121 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
#24 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Calgary Flames -125 over Seattle Kraken, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The Kraken are getting some attention here because they have been playing better of late and because goalie Grubauer has been playing well. However, the key with both those things is that the majority of this stretch has been on home ice for the Kraken. This is their first road game since mid-February. That certainly holds some significance here as they have lost 6 of last 8 road games. Also, we are assuming #1 goalie Grubauer plays here. Though he delivered a strong performance in his most recent road start, this followed him allowing at least 3 goals in 6 straight road starts. If Daccord gets the call here in goal for Seattle, he has allowed 4 goals in each of his last two starts and was pulled early from his most recent start. As for the Flames (winners of 5 straight including 4 over teams currently in playoff position!) they have announced Markstrom as the starter tonight. He has allowed an average of just 2 goals in his last 10 starts and has an 8-2 record in these games! Calgary has won 9 of 12 games and allowed just 2 goals per game in the 9 victories. Also, the Flames have won 4 straight on home ice. Seattle's recent little mini run had a lot to do with home ice and now they are on the road and facing a surging Calgary team. Take advantage of the line value in this one and lay the very reasonable money line price with the home favorite here as the Flames win their 6th game in a row and drop Seattle to 2-7 last 9 road games! |
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03-04-24 | Texas +7 v. Baylor | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +7 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - Too many points to give a team we feel has a shot at the outright upset. Texas has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Houston and @ Kansas. The Horns have been a solid road team in Big 12 play with a 4-4 SU record including outright upsets @ TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. They have 2 very solid veteran guards in Hunter and Abmas who both average double digits and combined to average 9 assists per game. Texas is one of the top shooting teams in the Big 12 (3rd in shooting %) and they are facing a Baylor defense that struggles on the defensive end ranking 13th in the Big 12 in FG% allowed and 276th nationally. It's going to be tough for the Bears to pull away from this talented offense with a defense that simply isn’t very good right now. Baylor is coming off a huge home game vs Kansas which turned into an 8 point win but they haven’t been unbeatable at home in league play this year. They already have 2 home losses in Big 12 play and only 1 of their 6 home wins in league play have come by double digits. Only 2 of their 10 Big 12 wins have come by 10+ points so for the most part Baylor is playing close games in conference play. This line opened -7 and if it stays there, this will be tied the largest home favorite Baylor has been in conference play this season and that should not be the case facing a balanced Texas team that ranks in the top 40 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The PPG margin in Big 12 play for these 2 teams is nearly identical with Baylor at +3 PPG and Texas at +1 PPG. Just too many points in game we think will go to the wire. |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 228 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 LA Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - Based on how well the Bucks defense is currently performing and how well the Clippers D has been all season, this number is set way too high. Clearly Doc Rivers has had an impact on the Bucks defensive intensity as they currently hold the best defensive net rating since the All-Star break at 101.5. They’ve also gone from being one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA to ranking 27th in pace of play since the break. Prior to the ASG the Bucks defense gave up an average of 118.8PPG 8th most in the league. Since the All-Star game they are allowing 97.2PPG the lowest PPG allowed in the NBA. Milwaukee is also 1st in opponents FG% allowed at 40.8% and 6th in 3PT% allowed. The Clippers have been a top 10 defensive team all season long allowing the 9th fewest PPG and ranking 13th in DEFF. LA also prefers to play slower, ranking 22nd in pace of play at 97.8 possessions per game on the year. In their last 6 games they played at a slightly slower tempo and are currently without Russell Westbrook who pushed the pace with the second unit. The Bucks, Clippers and T’Wolves are very similar in terms of defense right now and the Bucks/Wolves just totaled 219 points while the Clippers/Wolves just scored 177 points yesterday. There is no reason to believe these two teams aren’t going to be locked in defensively Monday night. Bet UNDER! |
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03-03-24 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -8 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nebraska -8 over Rutgers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers just continue to roll at home and we’ll stick with that trend here. They are 17-1 SU at home with their only loss coming in non-conference play vs Creighton. In Big 10 play they are 9-0 both SU & ATS at Pinnacle Bank Arena with their average margin of victory being +14 points per game. The only 3 teams in conference play they did not beat by double digits at home were Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Northwestern. They are facing a Rutgers team that has all kiinds of trouble offensively and is just 2-6 SU on the road in Big 10 play. The Scarlet Knights rank dead last in conference play in scoring, offensive efficiency, and eFG%. On the road this team is shooting just 39% and scoring 65 PPG on just 0.926 PPP. That shouldn’t change here vs a surprising Nebraska defense that is allowing 65 PPG at home on just 38% shooting. Offensively the Huskers thrive at home averaging 80 PPG and they’ve hit at least 73 points in 15 of their 18 home games this season. That’s not a good sign for Rutgers who struggles to score as we mentioned. In their first meeting this season @ Rutgers, the Cornhuskers blew a 12 point 2nd half lead and lost in OT. Nebraska shot just 38% in that game and we expect them to shoot much better at home on Sunday where their shooting percentage is 3% higher than it is in their road games. The host should also have a solid advantage at the FT line where they shoot 78% in conference play compared to 68% for Rutgers. This is a must win for Nebraska’s tourney hopes and we’ll lay it. |
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03-03-24 | Hornets +8.5 v. Raptors | Top | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on Charlotte Hornets +8.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 6 PM ET - This is a bad number and does not reflect how much better the Hornets have been since the trade deadline. In fact, the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this price because of the Hornets 3 recent losses but let’s not forget that those L’s came to the surging Bucks (twice) and a 76ers team in desperation mode. In their last 10 games the Hornets have the 10th best Net Defensive rating and they’ve covered 6 of their last nine games. In their most recent loss they didn’t have starter Brandon Miller their second leading scorer but he’ll be back in the lineup Sunday. The Raptors on the other hand lost Scottie Barnes their best player who is averaging 19.9PPG and 8.2 rebounds per game. Toronto has not been good defensively either, ranking 22nd in Net Defensive rating in their last 10 games. The Raptors are 8-8 ATS as a home favorite with an average +/- of +1.0PPG which is clearly not enough of a margin to cover this number. Charlotte has a negative differential on the road of -12.4PPG but those numbers mainly came from before the All-Star game. The Hornets defense will keep them in this one, especially with Barnes on the bench in street clothes. |
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03-03-24 | 76ers v. Mavs OVER 236.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on OVER 236.5 Philadelphia 76ers @ Dallas Mavericks, 1 PM ET - The 76ers offense has really struggled to put up points in recent weeks averaging 106.4PPG over their last seven contests. Those poor scoring results have driven this Total down and given us tremendous value on the Over here. Take a look at the Sixers last seven games. They have faced Charlotte (top 8 Net Defensive rating in their last 10 games), the Celtics (3rd DEFF), Bucks (L5 games 8th DEFF), Cavs (2nd DEFF), Knicks (10th DEFF), Heat (8th DEFF) and Cavs again. We expect their offense to explode Sunday versus the Mavs D that ranks 20th in Defensive Efficiency rating. The last two games the 76ers faced a comparable defense they put up 119 and 121 points. Philly is around average in terms of pace of play, but Dallas prefers to play much faster, ranking 7th in possessions per game. The Mavs are 12th in offensive efficiency ratings (76ers 8th) and they scored 118.6PPG. Dallas is even better at home with the 7th best OEFF rating while putting up 120.5PPG. The Mavericks defense was torched on a recent 4-game road trip as they allowed 133 to the Pacers, 121 to the Cavs, 125 to Toronto and 138 to the Celtics. Both teams like to go Over when playing out of Conference as the Sixers are 11-8 Over versus the Western Conference, while the Mavs are 12-9 Over against the Eastern Conference. This is going to be a shootout! |
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03-02-24 | Jazz +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 120-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +7.5 vs Miami Heat, 5 PM ET - Betting on or against the Jazz has not been kind to us but we have a short memory and will back Utah in this situation against the Heat. Orlando play at Orlando on Thursday and lost a pretty tight game by 8-points. They are in Florida and have a big scheduling edge here. Miami is home for the first time after a 6-game road trip which finished on Thursday night in Denver. The Heat are 15-13 SU, 12-16 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of +0.1PPG which is bottom 10 of the NBA. Utah on the road this season is 9-20 SU and haven’t been very good but this is a great situation for them to stay close with the Heat. The Jazz are 16-15-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss with an average net differential of minus -3.9PPG. It’s a tough scheduling situation for Miami so let’s grab the points with the Jazz. |
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03-02-24 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -9 | Top | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Auburn -9 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Triple motivation for the home team Tigers in this game. First, they are off a loss @ Tennessee on Wednesday night, second they lost their most recent home game vs Kentucky (their only home loss of the season, and they lost @ Mississippi State in January scoring only 58 points on 34% shooting, their worst offensive performance of the season. We look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this game at home where they average 85 PPG on 1.160 PPP. The Tigers are 13-1 SU at home (9-4-1 ATS) with all 13 of those wins coming by double digits. They simply blow teams out at Neville Arena winning by an average of score of 85-65. MSU will have a tough time bouncing back here as they put a lot of emphasis on their home revenge game vs Kentucky on Tuesday night and lost by 2 blowing a 13 point 2nd half lead. The Bulldogs are a poor road team (2-6 SU) with their only 2 road wins coming @ Mizzou and @ LSU, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. When the Dogs have had to step up in competition on the road it hasn’t been pretty. They’ve faced 4 teams in SEC play that currently sit ahead of them in the conference standing and lost all 4 by an average of 16 PPG. MSU is the worst team in the league at turning the ball over (19% of their possessions in SEC play are turnovers) and they are facing an Auburn team that creates havoc defensively (2nd in the SEC in defensive TO% and 6th nationally in defensive efficiency). We also expect the Tigers to have a huge advantage in points at the FT line as they hit 77% of their freebies in league play while MSU makes only 62% of their FT’s. We don’t think the Bulldogs can keep up here and we like the motivated Tigers to roll up an easy win, as they usually do at home. |
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03-02-24 | South Florida v. Charlotte -3 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Charlotte -3 over South Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Love this spot for Charlotte. They’ve had a full week off since losing back to back road games to fall to 11-4 in AAC play (2nd place). On Saturday they host the USF Bulls who are 14-1 in league play and have a full 3 game lead with 3 games to play so they are pretty much assured of winning the AAC regular season title. We feel USF is vastly overvalued because of their record but the fact is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they have the 5th best adjusted efficiency margin in the AAC and KenPom has them ranked as the 5th best team in the league as well despite their record. The Bulls just had a huge home game topping SMU which gave them at least a tie for the conference title and they just entered the AP top 25 for the first time EVER. While they do have a 6-3 SU road record, they haven’t been great squeaking by lower tier AAC teams (Temple, Rice, and UTSA – combined 13-33 SU AAC record) all by 6 points or fewer. The 2 solid road wins they have had an asterisk by each @ Memphis winning by 2 (trailed by 20 in the 2nd half) and @ UNT by 5 (who played without one of their top players CJ Noland). They have played only 2 of the top 7 teams in the conference on the road thus far. After basically clinching the AAC title and squeaking into the top 25, we look for a letdown from USF in this game vs a very good Charlotte team that is desperate off 2 losses. Prior to that 2 game losing stretch, the 49ers had won 11 of 12 games. They are still battling 4 other teams (5 teams for 3 spots) to finish in the top 4 and receive a double bye in the AAC tourney. The 49ers are 12-1 SU at home this year and 7-0 in conference play. Going back to the start of last season they are 23-5 SU at home. When these two met 1 month ago @ USF, the 49ers lost by 3 points but dominated the vast majority of the game. Charlotte blew a 17 point lead in that game and USF’s largest lead of the game was 3 points which was the final margin. The Bulls FIRST lead of that game came with 29 seconds remaining! We like Charlotte to get their revenge at home in this one after dominating the first meeting. |
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03-02-24 | Marquette v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 75-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over Marquette, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The Blue Jays are playing their home finale here and trying 2 catch Marquette for 2nd place in the Big East. The Golden Eagles sit 2 games ahead but they have this game and a game vs UConn yet on the docket so Creighton definitely has a chance to catch them if they win this game. It looks like Marquette will be without their starting PG Tyler Kolek (15 PPG & 7.5 APG) who is one of the top players in the Big East. He injured his oblique muscle on Wednesday and wasn’t able to practice on Thursday. When these 2 met in Milwaukee the Golden Eagles squeaked out a 72-67 win with Kolek and Sean Jones (also injured and out for this game) combined to score over 40% of Marquette’s points that night (30 points). Two keys in that game were aberrations in our opinion with Marquette, a poor rebounding team, +9 on the boards. The Golden Eagles also attempted 10 more FT’s but they score the fewest points in the league from the FT line. If those 2 things go Creighton’s way at home, like we think they will, this should be a cover. The Jays offense is nearly unstoppable at home averaging 86 PPG while hitting 52% of their shots. They are 13-2 at home this year (26-4 SU since the start of last season) with their 2 losses coming by 1 & 2 points and they topped the Big East’s beat team, UConn, here by 19 points in February 20th. Marquette lost on the road to the UConn team by 28 points just 3 days prior to that. This is Marquette’s first road game since February 17th and with the Golden Eagles being without much of their firepower in this game, we just don’t think they can keep up with Creighton. Lay it. |
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03-01-24 | Bucks v. Bulls +3.5 | Top | 113-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Chicago Bulls +3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing 2nd of a B2B as they played in Charlotte on Thursday and have to travel. This is Milwaukee’s 5th game in 8 days and fatigue will be a factor. Chicago is at home and coming off an impressive win against the Cavaliers who rate very similar to the Bucks right now in our overall Power Ratings. The Bulls have a 64.3% cover rate when having a rest advantage with a 9-5 ATS record and a +1.9PPG average MOV in those games. Milwaukee is 9-13 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Bulls are 8-4-1 ATS as a home underdog. The Bucks struggled to defend this season but in their last five games they have the 8th best defensive efficiency rating but a byproduct of playing great defense has led to a regression in their offensive efficiency which has dropped to 18th compared to 5th on the season. The Bulls are around league average in both OEFF and DEFF but they defend much better at home allowing 1.123PPP which is 8th best in the league. The home team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings including 3-0 this season. In fact, the last two meetings this season have both gone to OT with the Bulls winning one of those 120-113 on this court. Grab the home dog here. |
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03-01-24 | Troy State v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas State +3.5 over Troy, Friday at 8:15 PM ET - Couple key things at play in this game. First the scheduling situation is heavily in favor of the home team Texas State. They are playing the 2nd of back to back home games after beating ULM here by 18 points on Tuesday. It’s also the home finale which always brings an extra level of motivation. Lastly, because the Bobcats played on Tuesday, they are getting an extra day as Troy played Wednesday night @ Louisiana. Speaking of the Trojans, this will be their 4th straight road game in the span of only 9 days. They’ve played @ Arkansas St, @ ULM, @ Louisiana all since Feb 22nd and now @ Texas St just 48 hours after upsetting the Rajin Cajuns on Wednesday. In that win Troy made a ridiculous 38 FT’s (38 of 42) and Louisiana shot just 1 of 12 from 3 point land. Troy has a losing road record this season (5-8 SU) and with weary legs expected, they really don’t have a whole lot to play for. They are in 3rd place in the Sun Belt and locked into that spot most likely unless James Madison (2nd best team in the Sun Belt) would lose to Coastal Carolina, the worst team in the league which is highly unlikely. Troy is locked into a double bye in the conference tourney no matter what they do here. Texas State, on the other hand, needs a win to have a chance to move out of an opening round game and pick up a single by in the tournament. While the Bobcats have a losing record overall, they are 8-4 SU at home this season and they are playing well winning 6 of their last 9 games including topping the best team in the conference, App State, here by 7 points during that stretch. They average home margin is 75-66 and this is a revenger as the Bobcats lost @ Troy earlier this season with the Trojans shooting over 50% overall and over 40% from deep. We think Texas State has a great shot at the upset here and if not it should be close so we’ll grab the points with the home dog. |
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03-01-24 | Pacers v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just met in Indianapolis with the Pacers winning 123-114 as a 4-point favorite. The Pelicans went into that game having played the night before in New York and they were playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in 7 days. Indiana was off the night before and had played 3 straight home games prior. The Pelicans will get a measure of revenge on their home court tonight where they are 17-12 SU with the 11th best average point differential of +5.5PPG. New Orleans has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on their home court allowing 1.120PPP. Indiana has a negative road differential of minus -1.9PPG and an overall SU record of 14-14. The Pacers defense on the road is one of the worst in the NBA as they give up 1.206-points per possession. New Orleans has the 3rd best spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss at 15-8-1 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Pacers clearly have a great offense with the best FG% in the NBA but the Pelicans have the 6th best shooting defense in the league allowing 46.3%. New Orleans is also the best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line and can limit the Pacers 5th ranked 3-points shooting. |
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02-29-24 | USC v. Washington State -6.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
#842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State -6.5 over USC, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET - We’re getting one of the best teams in the Pac 12 at home off a loss. Washington State lost @ Arizona State on Saturday but that was a massive letdown spot for the Cougars after they upset Arizona on the road 2 nights earlier. Their loss @ ASU dropped them to 2nd place in the league so they need to win to keep pace with 1st place Arizona. Wazzu is 13-1 at home this year with 12 of their 13 home wins coming by at least 7 points and this spread sits at -8. Their only home win by fewer than 7 points was a 3 point win over Arizona. At home the Cougs hit over 50% of their shots, over 38% of their triples and they win by an average score of 80-63. They are facing a USC team that is 4 games below .500 on the season and on the road they are just 2-8 SU this season. One of those win came @ arch rival UCLA on Saturday as they topped the Bruins 62-56. After that big win we would look for a letdown from a USC team that really doesn’t have a lot to play for in this one as they sit in 2nd to last place in the Pac 12 with a 5-11 record. The Trojans have underachieved all season ranking 10th in the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also have the worst 3 point defense in conference play allowing opponents to hit over 38% of their triples. Meanwhile, WSU ranks in the top 3 in Pac 12 play in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the #1 eFG% defense in the conference. USC has had 7 of their 8 road losses by at least 8 points which is more than tonight’s spread of 6.5 points. Wazzu won by 8 @ USC already this year and we look for a double digit win for the Cougars tonight. |
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02-29-24 | Rockets v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -8.5 vs Houston Rockets, 9:10 PM ET - These two teams just met in Houston last week with the Suns losing 110-114 as a 3-point favorite. Now the Suns are playing with revenge and laying a short number based on what the spread was in Houston. The Rockets have been horrible on the road this season with a 5-22 SU record and a negative differential of minus -6.3PPG (23rd). It’s been extremely tough for the Rockets on the road lately as they’ve lost 8 straight away from home and 5 of those L’s have come by 8+ points. Phoenix is starting to play well with a 6-3 SU record their last nine games with 5 straight wins on their home court. Houston struggles shooting with the 26th rated FG% in the NBA at 45.8%. they are also 26th worst in 3PT%. Phoenix on the other had shoots 49.6% as a team (3rd best) and 37.8% from Deep which ranks 8th. The Suns have the 6th best EFG% at 56.6%, the Rockets rank 28th at 52.5%. Granted the Rockets are the much better team defensively, but in their last five games their defense has allowed 1.166-points per possession which ranks 19th in the NBA over that span of games. The Suns defense has actually been much better over that same 5-game span allowing 1.154PP. We will lay the points with the Suns. |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on the 10* Clippers -3.5 vs. the Lakers, 10 PM ET - This rivalry has always meant more to the Clippers than the glamourous Lakers, which is why they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings. The Lakers won the first two games of the season series, but the Clippers won most recently in the third clash on January 23rd. The Clippers were favored by -9.5-points in that game and won by 11. The Clippers have the 5th best average point differential in the NBA at +4.7PPG, while the Lakers have a negative overall differential of minus -0.5PPG. The Clippers are better offensively ranking 4th in OEFF, the Lakers are 18th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Clippers allow 1.152PPP (13th) and the Lakers give up 1.155PPP (15th). The Lakers have a better overall spread record when coming off a loss, but the Clippers have the better overall point differential in those games at +4.3PPG versus +1.4PPG for the Lakers. We are on the Clippers in this one. |
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02-28-24 | Arizona v. Arizona State +12 | Top | 85-67 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona State +12 over Arizona, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - These 2 arch rivals met 10 days ago and Arizona destroyed the Sun Devils 105-60 which was the largest margin of victory for either team ever in this storied rivalry. You can bet ASU will bring their “A” game in this one at home after that embarrassment. In that loss the Sun Devils made only 36% of their shots and made only 12 FT’s compared to the Wildcats 57% and 25 made FT’s. ASU has had a disappointing 14-14 season thus far but they’ve been solid at home with a 10-4 record and this will be their 3rd straight home game after losing by 2 vs Washington in OT and then topped Washington State by 12 points who was in the 1st place tie with Arizona at the time. With the exception of 1 game, they’ve been competitive in their home losses as well with 2 of their 4 setbacks coming by 2 points. Zona has been a dominant home team, but on the road they are just 5-3 SU on the season with losses @ Oregon State (last place in the Pac 12) and @ Stanford (9th place in the Pac 12). On the road the Cats average 6 fewer points and their shooting percentage drops 5% and their 3 point percentage drops 6%. The last 12 times Arizona has traveled to ASU, they’ve never won by more than 13 points and the Devils actually won 5 of those games outright. This is a very dangerous spot for the Cats and we like Arizona State to keep this close. Take the points. |
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02-28-24 | Minnesota +11.5 v. Illinois | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
#749 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +11.5 over Illinois, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Gophs continue to be undervalued with a ridiculous 23-4 ATS record and the fact is this team has played very well and been very competitive since late January. They’ve won 5 of their last 8 games and against the top half of the Big 10, they’ve held their own to say the least. Against the top 6 teams in the conference (Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern, & Nebraska), all ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 nationally, Minnesota has a record of 3-4 SU (6-1 ATS) with only 1 loss coming by more than 10 points and that was @ Nebraska over the weekend. They gave Purdue all they could handle on the road losing by 8 in a game the Gophers led by 10 in the 2nd half. They lost by 2 points vs Wisconsin and split with Michigan State – those are the top 3 teams in the conference besides Illinois. They are coming off their worst outing of the entire season losing @ Nebraska by 18 and they haven’t lost by more than 12 in any other conference game this season. We expect the Gophers to play well in what is a must win game if they have any hopes of an NCAA berth. They are on the outside looking in now but winning this game and closing the season with 3 more winnable games could get them in the conversation. Illinois is coming off a home win over Iowa by 10 points in a game they trailed by 7 with 12:00 remaining in the game. The Illini are in 2nd place in the Big 10 and they have a huge game on deck @ 3rd place Wisconsin to this could be a flat spot for them. They simply haven’t been playing dominant basketball over the last month. Their record over that stretch is 6-3 SU, however they only have 1 win by more than 12 points and that was at home vs a free falling Michigan team. Their defense has not been good allowing at least 1.13 PPP in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Minnesota’s offense has played very well as of late averaging 78 PPG in their 7 games prior to playing poorly vs Nebraska last weekend. They’ll be able to do enough on offense to stay within this big number. Take the points. |
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02-28-24 | St. John's v. Butler -120 | Top | 82-59 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
#744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -1 or PK -120 over St John’s, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - We’re catching Butler at the bottom of the market, so to speak, here in a must win home game. They’ve lost 4 straight games after they had won 5 of 6 heading into that stretch. After starting the Big East season with a 4-1 conference record, the Johnnies are just 4-8 SU their last 12 games and 2 of those 4 wins came vs DePaul & Georgetown the 2 worst teams on the Big East. They are coming off a huge home upset beating Creighton on Sunday making this a shorter turnaround as Butler played on Saturday. Now STJ goes back on the road where they are just 2-5 SU in conference play with one of those wins coming by 5 points @ Georgetown, the 2nd lowest rated team in the league ahead of only DePaul. The Bulldogs are 11-4 SU at home and 3 of those losses have come vs UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, the 3 highest rated teams in the conference, all in the top 13 nationally per KenPom. These 2 met way back in early January and STJ won 86-70 and Butler was just 9 of 29 from deep (31%) and they only attempted 12 FT’s (21 FT attempts for St Johns). The Johnnies also hit 50% of their shots in that win. Now back at home where Butler shoots very well (36% from 3) and averages 82 PPG. After losing points at the FT line in the first meeting, we should see the Bulldogs have a nice advantage at the stripe as St John’s fouls as much as anyone in the conference and Butler makes nearly 80% of their freebies. St John’s has won only twice in their 9 trips to Hinkle Fieldhouse and we don’t see it happening here. Take Butler. |
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02-28-24 | Mavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 136-125 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Mavs playing 2nd of a B2B and 3rd game in four days. The Raptors are home and rested. It’s a small sample size but the Raptors have looked like a new team in their last 3 games. In those three games they have the 6th Net offensive 122.6 and a defensive Net rating that is 11th 110.5 . Overall, that’s the 5th best NET differential rating of +12.1 over a 3-game span. Dallas had ripped off 7 straight wins prior to losing Sunday against the Pacers but 4 of those were at home. Now Dallas has a very good spread record as a road favorite at 11-3 ATS but their margin of victory in those games is +3.1PPG. They have an overall road record of 15-11 SU but they have a negative average point differential of minus -2.3PPG. The Raptors as a home dog is 5-7 ATS with an average +/- of -3.8PPG – but again they are playing much better of late. These teams have similar home/road efficiency ratings so given the adverse traveling situation the Mavs are in we like the home team with Toronto. |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State -7 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -7 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Really like this spot for a very solid CSU team off back to back road losses @ New Mexico & @ UNLV. The Rams are back home where they are a perfect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) in Mountain West action. They are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 25th in eFG% (42nd in offensive efficiency) and at home those numbers rise even more as they’ve hit 52% of their shots and averaged 82 PPG at Moby Arena. Their offensive efficiency at home is 1.16 PPP compared to 1.03 PPP on the road. So we know the Rams are good at home offensively. On defense has been where this team has surprised us this season. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and in conference play the Rams are #2 in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Put those 2 things together and you can see why this team is deadly at home (14-1 overall record with only loss by 3 points vs top 20 St Mary’s). Nevada is in the 2nd of back to back road games and this will be their 3rd in 4 on the road in the last 11 days. They are off a road win @ San Jose St, the lowest rated team in the MWC. This is also a revenger for CSU who lost 77-64 @ Nevada in January (we were on Nevada), in a game where the normally top notch shooting Rams hit 39% overall and just 26% from 3. They have struggled shooting at times on the road and that was one of those games, but now back at home we expect a very good offensive output for Colorado State. It they need to ice this one late the Rams hit over 76% of their FT’s on the season as well. Let’s lay the number with Colorado State. |
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02-27-24 | Penguins v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
#21/22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - The Penguins are coming off a crazy 7-6 win over the division rival Flyers. This continued a high-scoring trend for the Pens as they have now scored at least 4 goals in 4 of their last 5 games. Defensively, if you take out the results against two bottom-dwelling teams (Montreal and Chicago), Pittsburgh has allowed at least 4 goals in 3 of last 4 games against teams with a pulse! Vancouver is a strong team and they will be able to score well here on the Penguins as that trend continues. But right now Pittsburgh is scoring so well that this has the makings of a back and forth 4-3 type affair. Vancouver is off a 3-2 OT win over the Bruins but prior to this they had allowed at least 3 goals in 4 straight games and actually allowed at least 4 goals in 3 of those. Demko has not been at his best lately between the pipes and he is expected to get the call here as he was in the starters' crease at the morning skate. Considering that as well as the Penguins recent knack for giving up too many goals when facing quality opposition and you have a barnburner likely in this one. Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 6 goals. Both teams are rested here as well as neither was in action yesterday. Fresh legs. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-27-24 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 85-123 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - We don’t expect much scoring from either team tonight as both are in less than favorable scheduling situations. The Bucks are coming off a pair of big wins in Minnesota and Philadelphia and facing a Hornets team they recently beat 36. Charlotte is coming off a 3-game Western Conference Road trip and playing their 4th game in six days. What both teams are doing extremely well right now is playing defense. In their last 7 games the Hornets have the best defensive Net Rating in the league and the Bucks are 5th best. If we look at each teams last 5 games we see the Hornets are allowing just 1.046-points per possession (5th best) while the Bucks are giving up just 1.059PPP (6th). Both teams are also playing at a much slower rate in recent games with their pace of play dropping considerably. The Under has cashed 3 straight in this series and in 8 of the last ten meetings. Charlotte has stayed Under in 5 straight games, the Bucks have played Under in 5 of their last six. Make no mistake, the oddsmakers have adjusted this number down due to each team’s recent play, but they didn’t move it enough in our opinion. Bet Under. |
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02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - This number is too high, and the value lies with the Dog in this rivalry. Boston recently played the 21-35 SU Nets at home and were favored by -11.5-points. In early February they were -11.5 at home against the Hawks. Now they are laying 12 versus the Sixers? Granted, the 76ers don’t have Embiid back they still have enough talent on this roster to stay close with the Celtics. Philly has the 7th best road point differential in the NBA at +2.8PPG and has only been road dogs 11 times this season with a 6-5 ATS record. They were recently +11.5 at Cleveland without Harris and Batum and won that game outright by 2-points. In the last meeting in Boston, the Celtics were favored by -11.5 points and the Sixers were without Embiid and Maxey. The Celtics barely won that game by 6-points. Boston is fantastic at home this season with a 26-3 SU record, but they are just 15-14 ATS as a favorite. 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has been decided by 12-points or less. Take the pooch! |
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02-27-24 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -3 | Top | 91-89 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -3 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We always at least look into the spot of an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team as historically that has been a solid play on the host. It’s never an automatic play for us as many other variables must be researched. We do like MSU in this one. Kentucky, ranked 15th in the AP Poll, is off a huge home win over Alabama who was in 1st place in the SEC at the time (on Saturday). The Cats rolled up huge offensive numbers in that game winning 117-95 shooting 63% from the field, 54% from beyond the arc, and 85% from the FT line. Now this young team, all but 1 player in the rotation are underclassmen, goes on the road to Starkville in what is a huge home game for the Bulldogs. This is a very similar situation to the Cats beating Auburn a little more than a week ago and then traveling to LSU where they lost. MSU has a solid 19-8 SU record but they are not yet safely in the NCAA tourney. Their most recent projection was right around a 9 seed by most and with 2 tough road games @ Auburn and @ A&M next, they can’t afford a potential 3 game losing streak. They have just 1 home loss in conference play (vs Bama) and the Dogs are on a solid 5 games winning streak including an impressive 20 point road win @ LSU on Saturday. These 2 met in Lexington in mid January and UK won 90-77 hitting 56% of their shots and making 23 FT’s to just 6 for Mississippi State. We look for the Bulldogs defense to take that game personally and play up to their capabilities here in the rematch. They have been fantastic all season defensively ranking 5th nationally in 3 point FG% defense, 23rd in eFG% defense, and 11th in defensive efficiency. These two teams have played nearly identical strength of schedules (44th and 47th per KenPom) and have the exact same records (both 19-8 SU) yet Kentucky is getting all the accolades. We like Mississippi State to win and cover this one at home. |
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02-26-24 | Heat +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to bet on the Heat and fade the Kings who are coming off an emotional game last night against the Clippers. Miami last played on the 23rd, a win against the Pelicans. In the game against the Pels a scuffle broke out between the two teams and unfortunately for the Heat, Jimmy Butler is suspended for this game. But we still like Miami who has won 3 straight and 5 of their last six with two of those wins coming on the road in Milwaukee and Philadelphia without Butler. The Heat are 11-7 ATS on the road this season as a Dog with an average plus/minus of +0.66PPG. On that topic, the Kings are 10-13 ATS at home laying points with a net differential per game of +1.6PPG. Sacramento is also 3-5 ATS when playing without rest this season with a negative average differential of minus -5.3PPG. The Kings are 3-4 SU their last seven games heading into the contest against the Clippers and 5-5 SU their last ten games. When we compare each teams last five games we find the Heat have the leagues 6th best Net Rating differential versus the Kings who rank 11th. The Heat have stepped things up defensively with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating over their last 5 games versus the Kings who rank 16th in that same span of games. The line is inflated due to the Heat suspensions, but it’s been over cooked. Grab the points. |
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02-25-24 | Mavs v. Pacers UNDER 254 | Top | 111-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 254 Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, 5:10 PM ET - This is a ridiculously high total for an NBA game, and we can’t resist the value with an Under bet here. Let’s first talk about raw numbers. Indiana scores 123.8PPG and allows 122.2PPG. Dallas is putting up 118.7PPG and giving up 117.2PPG. If we get an average game from both, they are not reaching that total, but we know its not as simple as that. The Mavs have won 7 straight games, and their offense has played above their season metrics in terms of offensive efficiency but it’s their defense that has been the difference. Dallas has the 2nd best Net Defensive Rating in the NBA over a 7-game stretch at 104.5. In their last five games they are allowing just 1.045-points per possession which is the 4th lowest number in the league over that course of games. Indiana has actually played better defense in their most recent 5-games allowing 1.165PPP while holding three opponents to 115 or less. Dallas shoots 48.2% overall at home but that number dips to 47.4% on the road and their 3PT% falls to 35.9 on the road compared to 38.6% at home. Indiana is playing at a slowing pace in their last five games compared to their season tempo average and their offensive efficiency has also dropped in recent games. The value lies in the Under here. |
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02-25-24 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -9.5 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -9.5 over Ohio State, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for a struggling OSU team on the road after playing @ Minnesota on Thursday night. They’re playing an MSU team that is off a poor home loss on Tuesday vs Iowa and they’ve had 2 extra days to get ready for this one. The Buckeyes had their one big upset at home vs Purdue the game after their head coach Holtmann was fired. That was a week ago and you could see in that game that OSU brought their “A” game along with an emotional effort which was to be expected. Then on Thursday they went right back to their old ways losing by 9 @ Minnesota in a game that wasn’t that close (Gophers led by 17 with 5:00 remaining in the game). They haven’t won a road game yet this season, 0-8 SU, and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here after traveling with short rest. MSU looked sluggish here on Tuesday vs Iowa to say the least. The Hawks shot over 50% and averaged 1.20 PPP which is WAY above Sparty’s season average as they allow 0.95 PPP. MSU should fare well offensively here vs an OSU defense thar ranks 13th (out of 14 Big 10 teams) in defensive efficiency and dead last defending the arc. Meanwhile Sparty, after a very slow start to the season from 3 point range, has moved all the way up to 30th nationally hitting 37% of their triples. We’re getting value in this bounce back spot as Michigan State was favored by 9.5 vs Iowa on Tuesday and now we get the same opening line vs an Ohio State team that is in a bad situation and ranks well below Iowa in KenPom’s power ratings. Prior to that loss, MSU had won 9 straight home games and they can’t afford a loss here with Purdue and NW (2 losable games) on deck. The Spartans are safely in the NCAA field now right around an 8 seed but a loss here could move them closer to the bubble. |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, 1:10 PM ET - A few big syndicate bettors hit this Over and have driven the number up from 225.5 where it opened to 235 where it currently sits. We are betting contrarian and taking the value with the added points and UNDER the total. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, they have scored 235 or less five times. In the last four meetings in Philadelphia they have totaled 234 or less points in every game. The Bucks may have turned the corner with a big win in Minnesota the other night and the main reason this team is playing better in their defense. The Bucks D was one of the worst defensive efficiency units in the NBA until the recent hire of Doc Rivers. In their last five games they allowed the 6th fewest points per possession at 1.059PPP in the NBA. In their last five games they have the 3rd best FG% defense and allowed the 3rd fewest made shots. They’ve also given up only 104.4PPG in their last five games which is 5th best in the league. Each team has seen a dramatic decrease in their offensive Net Ratings also. Looking at each teams last 7 games we find they rank 23rd and 24th respectively in the league. In that same 7-game stretch the Bucks EF% is 17th, the Sixers are 26th. Philadelphia is coming off a game against a Cavs team that produced only 201 total points and the Cavs/Bucks has several similarities. The Sixers offense has struggled without Embiid in the lineup producing 104 or less points in 5 of their last seven games. |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -7.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 9 PM ET - We don’t mind the fact that the Wolves are playing the second night of a back-to-back here as they had plenty of rest with the All-Star Break. Minnesota is coming off a home loss to the Bucks last night and should be motivated for a bounce back win here. The T’Wolves have the best spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 11-5 ATS record, and they’ve won those games by an average of +13.3PPG. Brooklyn is in a freefall in the midst of a 1-6 SU run their last seven games. On the season the Nets are 9-15 ATS on the road and they’ve lost 9 of their last ten away from home. Seven of those ten losses were by double-digits with an average loss margin of 17PPG. The big advantage the Wolves have here is with their defense. Minnesota has the best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA, while the Nets rank 21st. Minnesota has an average MOV at home this season of +9.4PPG which is 4th best in the league. We like the Timberwolves by 10+ today. |
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02-24-24 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -110 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
(Line moved AFTER we prepared the write-up but we still like OSU even as a small favorite or a pick'em in this spot) #688 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State (small fave or pick'em) over Oklahoma, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This Oklahoma State team has a losing record on the season, but they absolutely haven’t quit on the season and they have been trending in the right direction for about a month. After starting the Big 12 season with an 0-6 SU record, the Cowboys have now won 4 of their last 7 games including a win @ Cincinnati on Wednesday. That was a few days after they beat a very good BYU team here at home by double digits. Their most recent loss came on February 10th on the road vs this Oklahoma team. The Sooners were favored by 11 in that game and never came close to covering the spread as their largest lead of the game was just 7 points. OSU actually led by 4 with just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game and it was a 1 point game with OU leading with just 11 seconds left in the game (Final was 66-62 in favor of Oklahoma). The Cowboys shot just 31% in that game (OU was at 45%) and only 17% from deep yet still almost won the game on the road. After starting the season 13-1, the Sooners have declined winning just 5 of their last 12 games and their road record in Big 12 play is 2-4 SU. They’ve only played 6 true road games the entire season and they are averaging just 67 PPG in those road contests while shooting 41%. Okie State has won 3 straight home games and despite their 12-14 overall record, they are 10-5 at home. Three of those five losses have come vs teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 17 (Kansas, Baylor, and Creighton). OSU has won 6 of their last 7 meetings at home vs arch rival Oklahoma and we give them a great shot at the upset on Saturday. |
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02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -2 over Duke, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Just a massively huge game for Wake here. They currently sit on the bubble for the NCAA tourney and really need a signature win down the stretch. This would absolutely qualify. WF will most likely be favored in each of their last 4 games so this is their final regular season shot to make a statement. These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and Duke won that game at home by 8. The Devils largest lead of the game was just 9 and it was mainly tight throughout. Duke led by 5 with 30 seconds left in the game and the FT disparity was heavily in favor of the Devils (+9 FT’s made) as it usually is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke outshot Wake 47% to 39% yet the game was still very tight most of the way. From beyond the arc the Deacs were just 6 of 26 in that game (23%) which is way below their season average of 37% which is 25th best in the nation. We look for the Demon Deacons to shoot much better at home on Saturday where they have made 50% of their shot & 42% of their 3 pointers this season while averaging 85 PPG. They are also undefeated at home this year (14-0 SU & 10-3-1 ATS) including 8 wins over top 100 teams. The Devils do have a winning record on the road this year but they’ve been a bit fortunate in their road games over the last month or so. Example, they just beat Miami on the road on Wednesday but the Canes played without Pack & Cleveland, both starters who average 14 PPG. They also played @ FSU last Saturday and won but the Noles are a team in turmoil right now losing 6 of their last 9 games including 4 home games. Duke has played only 2 top 50 teams on the road all season and split those games beating Va Tech (who is 50th) and losing @ UNC. Wake is currently ranked 20th in the KenPom power ratings which is near where we have them as well. Last year the Blue Devils traveled to WF as a favorite and lost by double digits to a Demon Deacon team that was rated 50+ spots lower this this team. It’s Duke’s 3rd straight road game (Saturday, Wed, Saturday) and Wake is off a blowout home win on Tuesday vs a Pitt team that was rolling (won 5 straight entering that game). That means the Deacs get an extra day to prepare for this one as well while Duke continues their travel schedule. A non ranked team favored at home over a top 10 team? We agree and expect Wake to win and cover this one. |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves OVER 225 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225 Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 pm ET - These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee in a game the oddsmakers set a total of 222 and the game finished with 234-points. This game will have a similar result. In that previous meeting the Bucks played without All-Star MVP Dame Lillard who seems to have found his 3-point stroke. Lillard won the 3-point shootout and hit eleven 3's in the AS game, two from half court. Another All-Star in that game put up a huge number as Karl Anthony Towns scored 50 for the West. We like both players to carry that momentum into this game. The Bucks own the 5th best team shooting percentage in the NBA, the Wolves are 7th. Minnesota has the 3rd best 3PT% in the league, the Bucks are 9th best. The Bucks have the 3rds best EFG%, the Wolves are 7th. The oddsmakers have set this number too low and we expect another higher scoring game between these two teams. Three of the last four meetings have resulted in 234 or more points. |
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02-22-24 | Hornets v. Jazz -9.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9.5 vs. Charlotte Hornets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting the number here with the Jazz minus the points. These two teams recently met on January 27th in Charlotte and the Jazz were 10-point favorites in the Hornets building. They are now laying the same number at home. In the most recent meeting, the Jazz won 134-122 and that Hornets roster at the time featured PJ Washington who scored 43-points. Washington has since been traded to the Dallas Mavericks. Charlotte is one of the worst shooting teams in the league at 46.1% as a team which ranks 26th in the NBA. They rank 27th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.101-points per possession. In comparison the Jazz rank 15th in OEFF at 1.170PPP. Utah also holds a significant advantage on the boards with a top 8 offensive and defensive rebounding team versus a Hornets team that is 24th and 28th. Utah lost 4 straight games heading into the All-Star break, but the losses came to the Warriors twice, the Lakers and Suns. Charlotte has won 3 straight but had lost 10 in a row prior. It looks too easy to take the double-digit dog with the Hornets….so don’t. |
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02-22-24 | Sam Houston State v. New Mexico State +1.5 | Top | 79-58 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +1 over Sam Houston State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - NMSU has one of the biggest, if not the biggest, home/road dichotomy in college basketball. They are 0-12 SU on the road this season but a near perfect 11-1 SU at home. Their only home loss was vs one of the top teams in the MWC, New Mexico, and that was by 1 point. The Aggies are finally back home after losing 3 straight games, all on the road. We like the value here getting NMSU as a home dog (opening line +1) as we have them favored in this game in our power ratings. These 2 met in late January and SHSU was favored by 5 at home which means they should be a dog in this game of 2 of 3 points for the normal home/road swing. Sam Houston is off back to back wins but both at home. They haven’t been very successful on the road this year with a 4-9 SU record. They are a poor shooting team (322nd in FG%) but on the road it’s even worse where they hit just 39% of their shots and score 66 PPG. That’ll be tough to overcome in this road game vs a New Mexico State team that allows their opponents to make only 36% of their shots here at home while holding them to 61 PPG. When these 2 met 3+ weeks ago, Sam Houston won by 12 and the difference in that game was from beyond the arc. NMSU made only 4 three point shots (hit only 20% for the game) while Bearkats hit 10 outscoring the Aggies by 18 from deep. We expect that to turn around here as NMSU is a poor shooting team on the road, but at home they hit 41% of their triples on the season. We’ll take the points with the home team tonight. |
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02-22-24 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 236.5 | Top | 107-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 236.5 LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This number has been set too high according to our math model which is projecting 231.5-points being scored. The league average for points scored in an NBA game this season is 229.6PPG and this number is considerably higher than that. When OKC has been at home this season those contests have averaged 236.6 total points per game. When the Clippers have been on the road those games have averaged 233.1PPG. Both numbers get us a cash on our bet here. These two teams rank 3rd in offensive efficiency at 1.204PPP but they also rank 6th and 12th in defensive efficiency. The last three meetings between these two teams have been higher scoring, but with the added rest from the All-Star Break we expect both defenses to rise to the occasion. |
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02-22-24 | College of Charleston v. Delaware +2 | Top | 90-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON Delaware +1.5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 7 PM ET - C of C is in 1st place in the CAA with Delaware 2 games back and chasing. We like the Blue Hens to pick up a home win on Thursday night. They are playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 6 games and they only have 1 home loss this season in conference play. Delaware is the #1 team in the conference in eFG% allowed and on offense they are #2 in eFG%. They defend the arc better than anyone in the CAA allowing just 28% in league games and they rank in the top 40 nationally overall on the season in that category. That is key here and Charleston throws up a lot of 3 point shots at 3rd most nationally attempting 31.5 per game. Despite being a team that scores almost 40% of their points from 3 (which is 19th most nationally) the Cougars aren’t a great 3 point shooting team ranking 244th in 3 point FG%. We expect tonight they’ll struggle against a very good 3 point defensive team. C of C has had some success on the road in league play winning 4 straight but they were all vs teams ranked 296th or lower in KenPom (Delaware is 147th). There are 7 CAA teams ranked in the top 200 and the Cougs have only played 2 of those teams on the road so far this season (1-1 record). They also have a huge revenge game on deck vs Towson in 2 days. These 2 teams have played a similar SOS this season yet the Blue Hens shoot the ball better (47% to 43%) and they defend better allowing opponents just 42% from the field (C of C allows 44%). We like Delaware to get the home win tonight. |
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02-21-24 | Blue Jackets v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
#77/78 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Blue Jackets are in the 2nd night of a B2B which means, after losing 5-1 to the Kings with Merzlikins in goal for Columbus, Tarasov is likely to get the start tonight. It is either Merzlikins in goal in a B2B (not easy to do) or Tarasov (likely) and both goalies have struggled of late. Tarasov is the likely starter and he is allowing nearly 4 goals per game with a 3.91 GAA this season. Columbus lost 5-1 to LA last night which was the 10th time in last 14 games that the Jackets have allowed at least 4 goals! Columbus has scored an average of 3 goals per game on the season and will bounce back after scoring just 1 goal last night. They face a Ducks team that will likely have John Gibson in goal for this one. He has allowed 8 goals in his last two appearances even though those spanned just 5 periods of hockey. In other words his GAA is above 4 goals per game his last two games. Both these teams struggle on the penalty kill so that should help get the power plays going in this one. On the season the Blue Jackets have allowed the most goals in the league! As for Anaheim, in the Western Conference the Ducks rank 14th out of 16 teams in terms of goals allowed! Anaheim has won 2 of 3 and scored at least 4 goals in each win. They also are happy to be back home after a long road trip. They will take advantage of hosting a team that is very susceptible defensively and in goal. At the same time the Blue Jackets have done a great job in the scoring department this season when coming off a loss by a margin of at least 3 goals! They have averaged scoring 4.3 goals the 13 times that has happened this season! In other words, perfect spot for Columbus to respond in the offensive zone. 5-4 would not surprise us at all here and getting each team to 3-3 here (resulting in a 4-3 final) should not be a problem either! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-21-24 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -5.5 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -5.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - We’re catching this very solid New Mexico team off a road loss @ San Diego State while CSU is off a home win over 1st place Utah State. Perfect spot to grab the Lobos here. Colorado State has struggled big time on the road with a 1-5 SU mark in conference play. Their only MWC road win was @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the league, and when playing the top end of the conference away from home they’ve lost by 16 @ SDSU, by 13 @ Nevada, by 8 @ Boise, and by 5 @ Utah St. The Rams have very good overall offensive numbers but they drop off quite drastically away from home. They average 7.5 PPG less on the road and shoot 5% lower from the field. The Lobos won their first 11 home games this season but lost their most recent 2 vs Boise St and UNLV. They have rolled over some of the top tier teams in the MWC here at home beating 1st place San Diego State by 18 and 1st place (tied with SDSU) Utah State by 13. The Lobos have also had an extra day to rest and get ready for this one after playing last Friday with Colorado State playing on Saturday. When these 2 met @ CSU the Rams won by 8 with a +14 edge in made FTs. New Mexico is the only team in the MWC that ranks in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (conference games) and they lead the conference in TO rate both offensively and defensively as well. They are the better rebounding team in this match up as well which should lead to some extra possessions as well along with their expected edge in TO margin. We’ll lay it with New Mexico at home. |
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02-21-24 | Belmont v. Drake -9 | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drake -9 over Belmont, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Drake, who sits in 1st place in the MVC tied with Indiana State, has been waiting for this rematch. That’s because the Bulldogs, who are 13-3 in conference play, lost @ Belmont by 22 points, by far their worst loss of the MVC season. It was the most points Drake has allowed in conference play this season AND the least points they’ve scored in conference play this season. The Bruins went crazy in that game at home making 57% of their shots overall and 55% of their 3 pointers. It still stands as Belmont’s ONLY win this season over a top 100 opponent. Drake is the highest rated team in the MVC per KenPom (48th nationally) and they are the #1 offensive and defensive efficiency team in the conference (league games). They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season with 11 of those wins coming by double digits. Going back further they’ve won 73 of their last 80 home games! Belmont is playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and when they faced the other 2 top 100 teams in the MVC on the road (Indiana State & Bradley) they lost by 30 & 23 points respectively. The Bruins are the fastest paced team in the Missouri Valley which will give the superior team Drake a better chance to pull away as we expect lots of possessions in this one. When the Bulldogs faced Belmont here last year they won by 14 but led by 22 with just 4:00 remaining in the game. We look for a similar outcome on Wednesday night with Drake winning easily. |
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02-20-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#638 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - These 2 are currently tied at the top of the MWC so the winner here moves into sole possession of 1st place. We like the home team Utah State. We’ve been on San Diego State a number of times at home this season where they’ve won 51 of their last 53 games, however the Aztecs are simply a different team away from the Viejas Arena. While they are undefeated at home, on the road SDSU is just 4-6 SU on the season and while all of their key offensive numbers drop on the road, their defensive numbers fall off dramatically. The Aztecs all 12 more PPG away from home and their defensive efficiency goes from 0.87 PPP at home to 1.04 PPP on the road. Their only road wins in conference play were vs San Jose State & Air Force, the 2 worst teams in the Mountain West. SDSU is also off 2 huge home revenge wins over Colorado St and New Mexico while we’re catching Utah State off a 20 point road loss @ CSU (we were on CSU). The Aggies now get to play at home after that embarrassing loss where they are 11-1 SU this year and 25-2 SU since the start of last season. It’s a revenger for USU who lost 81-67 @ San Diego State in a game where the Aggies shot poorly (26% from 3) and attempted 15 fewer FT’s than the host Aztecs. USU is the better shooting team by a fairly wide margin, especially at home where they hit 53% of their shots and average 85 PPG. If the Aggies need to put the game away late with FT’s they are the #1 FT shooting team in the MWC in league games hitting almost 77%. Lay this small number with Utah State at home. |
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02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
#644 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Baylor, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot for the very good home team BYU coming off their worst loss of the season. The Cougs lost by 10 @ Okie State on Saturday, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12. The normally sharp shooting BYU team (36% from 3 on the season) made only 8 of 35 triples (22%) in that loss. If they don’t hit 3’s they are in trouble as 41% of their points come from deep (2nd most in the nation). They should have success back at home facing a Baylor defense that isn’t great defending the arc (144th nationally) and in Big 12 play alone they rank 10th in the league. This is also a tough travel spot for Baylor after playing in West Virginia on Saturday (getting a win) and now on the west coast just a few days later. The Bears aren’t the deepest team in the world (266th in bench minutes) and will be playing in altitude for the first time this season – they’ve never played at BYU. The Bears may also be without one of the key players once again, Langston Love (12 PPG), which will take one of their top 3 point shooters off the floor and limit their depth even further. When these 2 met @ Baylor it was the first Big 12 game ever at the new Foster Pavilion (only 2nd game played there this season at the time) and the Bears were extra motivated. BYU shot a higher percentage for the game and outrebounded Baylor by 7, however they couldn’t overcome the Bearss 3 point shooting (43% for the game from deep) and they were outscored by 11 at the FT line in that 9 point loss. The Bears are in a bad travel spot as we mentioned, and situationally they have a huge game on deck at home vs #1 Houston (per KenPom). BYU is a very tough place to play (40-8 SU their last 48 here) and we like them to get the win and cover on Tuesday night. |
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02-20-24 | TCU v. Texas Tech -5.5 | Top | 81-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -5.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Tech in need of a home win here after losing 4 of their last 6 games. However, all of those losses were close (8 points or less) and 3 of the 4 setbacks were on the road. Two of those losses came @ Iowa State (by 8) and @ Baylor (by 3), both top 12 teams per KenPom. The Red Raiders are coming off a road loss @ ISU over the weekend but their most recent home game prior to that was a 29 point win over Kansas. They are 13-1 at home this season with an average scoring margin of 77-61. One of their losses over this 6 game stretch was @ TCU 85-78. Tech, the #1 shooting team in the Big 12 (eFG%), had some very solid shooting numbers in that loss (52% from the field) but couldn’t overcome a HUGE deficit at the FT line. TCU attempted 32 freebies in that game (made 24) while Texas Tech only had 14 attempts the entire game (made 10). In a close game, that was the difference. It was an anomaly for Tech’s defense that rarely fouls allowing just 15% of their opponents points from the FT line which is top 30 in the nation. We don’t expect that discrepancy at home tonight. If the FT attempt numbers do favor Tech tonight, which they should, they are making 77% of their freebies in Big 12 play (1st in the conference) while TCU is making only 68% (last in the conference). TCU is off a 75-72 road win on Saturday @ KSU in a game the Wildcats made only 1 of 15 three point attempts yet still nearly won at home. Now the Horned Frogs are on the road again a few days later and this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4. Tough spot and we like Texas Tech to get a big win at home. |
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02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia Tech -3.5 over Virginia, Monday at 7 PM ET - Tech has beaten UVA 3 straight years here at home and we like them to add another W to the ledger tonight. The Cavs have won 9 of 10 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the ACC thus far (haven’t played Duke or UNC) and of those 10 games only 3 were played vs teams ranked in the top 5 in the conference. In those 3 games vs top 5 conference opponents, Virginia beat Clemson at home by 1, beat WF at home by 2, and lost at Pitt by 11. Tech has lost 4 of 5 but 3 of those losses came on the road and they also played both UNC & Duke (top 2 teams in the ACC) during that stretch. UVA struggles in general offensively but on the road is where they really have problems putting the ball in the basket shooting just 42% while averaging only 63 PPG. Their defense also allows 11 more PPG on the road where they are just 4-4 on the season. VT is 11-2 at home this year and their offense is tops in the ACC in eFG% and FT%. Their home losses came vs Duke & Miami and in their 4 point loss vs the Canes the Hokies played without their 2nd leading scorer and top 3 point shooter, Hunter Cattoor. In the first meeting between these 2 in state rivals, UVA won by 8 at home and they were +7 from the FT line making 11 compared to VT who only went to the line 4 times the entire game (4 for 4). That’s unlike Virginia to win at the FT line as only 14% of their points this season come from the stripe (355th) and when they get there they are a poor shooting team making only 64% on the season. If Tech can get to the stripe tonight, which we think they will at home, they should have a huge edge as they make 80% of their attempts on the season. We don’t think UVA will be able to keep up offensively on the road and we’ll grab the Hokies win and cover tonight. |
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02-18-24 | Utah v. UCLA -2 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCLA -2 over Utah, Sunday at 7 PM ET - This young Bruins team was struggling to say the least in mid January when they lost 8 of 9. Head coach Mick Cronin turned this team around and they have now won 8 of their last 9 including 4 road games which is impressive. The Bruins only loss during their 8 game run was @ Arizona by 7 points and even in that game they played very well leading by as many as 19 points before the Wildcats furious comeback. They beat Colorado here on Thursday despite the Buffs hitting 53% of their shots which made the win even more impressive. Despite that shooting effort by the Buffs, UCLA’s defense has been lights out rising to #1 efficiency wise in the Pac 12 and in the 7 wins during their recent 9 game run only 1 team topped 66 points. The Utes are now the team in a free fall in Pac 12 play. They have now lost 5 of their last 6 and Utah is 0-6 SU on the road in conference play. Utah is on the road for the 2nd of back to back games after losing @ USC on Thursday who entered that game with a 3-10 Pac 12 record. The Utes lost key senior Rollie Worster (10 PPG and 5.5 APG) in mid January and they have since gone 3-6 SU. Utah doesn’t create turnovers defensively (last in the Pac 12), they aren’t a great rebounding team, and they only shoot 58% from the FT line in conference play. Not a great recipe for winning especially on the road. UCLA will have some extra motivation in this one after losing at Utah 90-44, their low point of the season, in mid January. That embarrassing loss propelled the Bruins to their current 8-1 run which started right after that game in Salt Lake City. Small number here and we’ll grab UCLA to win at home. |
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02-18-24 | Chattanooga v. Furman OVER 154.5 | Top | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
#849/850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Chattanooga vs Furman, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These are the 2nd and 3rd scoring teams in the SoCon both averaging right about 80 PPG on the season. Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency so the strength is with the offense on both sides. Both have preferred a faster pace ranking 3rd in 4th in SoCon in tempo so we should have plenty of possessions. Neither team creates turnovers at a high rate so we should see many wasted trips on offense. Chattanooga’s offense is rolling scoring at least 79 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Furman was missing some key players early in the conference schedule including leading scorer Foster but he’s now been back for 9 games and the offense has been very good at home averaging 82 PPG on 48% shooting. When they met back in January the total was set at 155.5 and they didn’t come close with Chattanooga winning 73-58. Furman played that game without Foster and they combined to shoot only 37% from the field including a terrible 11 of 55 (20%) from beyond the arc. Neither team averaged 1.00 PPP in that game which is WAY below their averages of 1.16 PPP (UTC) and 1.08 PPP (Furman) in conference play. Both offenses play much better here and this one goes Over the Total. |
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02-17-24 | Michigan State v. Michigan +6.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan +6.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Michigan beat Wisconsin at home on Feb 7th and then went on the road and was beaten badly in back to back games @ Nebraska and @ Illinois. The Wolverines are still playing without their top player Dug McDaniel on the road (suspended for road games) but he can play in Michigan’s home games. They are a different team with McDaniel on the court as he averages 17 PPG, 5 assists per game and averages 35 minutes per game. This is Michigan’s Super Bowl to say the least. They have had a dismal season but this is the game they will give everything they have to try and top their in state rival. Sparty is far from a solid road team with a 2-5 SU record this year. Their road wins came @ Maryland by 2 points and @ PSU on Wednesday night so they are playing their 2nd straight road game. MSU has been shooting lights out during their current 5 games stretch (4-1 SU) hitting 50% overall and 41% from deep and they are due for some regression. On the road this year they are hitting just 44% of their shots and averaging only 68 PPG so the regression could come here. These 2 met on January 30th @ MSU and Michigan led at halftime despite not having McDaniel in the line up. The Spartans pulled away in the 2nd half but hit a ridiculous 56% from the filed and 43% from deep at home. MSU was just a 3 point favorite @ PSU on Wednesday and now they are laying nearly 7 vs their arch rival who only sits 12 spots lower than PSU in KenPom’s ratings. In their first meeting with Michigan, the Spartans were -11.5 and now laying 6.5 on the road with McDaniel back in the line up for the Wolverines. We like Michigan to give MSU all they can handle here and have a shot at the upset. Take the points. |
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02-17-24 | Fresno State v. Boise State -14 | Top | 66-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#762 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -14 over Fresno State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This one has blowout written all over it. Boise is off back to back road losses @ Colorado State and @ Utah State, 2 of the top teams in the MWC. Now they’ve had a full week off to get ready for a bounce back effort on Saturday. They are facing a Fresno team that just lost at home vs UNLV on Wednesday evening and this will be the Bulldogs 3rd road game in their last 4. On top of that, this Fresno team is decimated by injuries right now. They only have 5 players available who are in their regular rotation. They will be without 3 of their top 6 scorers in this game including their top 2 big men. Boise already was going to have a huge edge on the boards and now with 13+ boards on the bench for FSU it should be a gigantic edge. The Broncos already rank #1 in both offensive and defensive rebounding in conference play and they are facing a Fresno team that is 11th (last) in offensive board and 9th in defensive boards and that was WITH their 2 big men in the line up for nearly every game. Boise is 10-2 at home with their only losses coming in OT vs Utah State who is in 1st place and by 4 points vs UNLV in a game the Broncos only made 40% of their shots and just 29% of their 3’s. Fresno is only 4-8 in conference play and their 4 wins have come vs Air Force (twice) and San Jose State (twice) who have a combined conference record of 3-21. These two met earlier this season and Boise won on the road 72-68 despite the Bulldogs shooting 53% on their home floor. The players missing in this game for FSU combined for 32 points in that loss. The Fresno offense ranks 10th in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency and the average only 64 PPG on the road this season. With the anticipation of no inside game or offensive rebounding in this game they’ll have to light it up from beyond the arc to have a chance to stay close. That’ll be a problem vs a Boise State defense that ranks 1st in the MWC defending the 3 point line allowing only 29%. The Bronco offense averages over 80 PPG at home and they are rested and in a must win spot. The Bulldogs have played only 2 road games vs the top 5 teams in the conference this year (Boise falls into that category) and they lost those 2 games by 21 & 27 points and they were full strength for those games. This should be a blowout. |
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02-17-24 | Utah State v. Colorado State -6 | Top | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -6 over Utah State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - Utah State sits at 9-3 in MWC play and in 1st place. They’ve played the easiest strength of schedule so far in league play having faced only 4 games (out of 12) vs the top 5 teams in the conference. USU is 1-3 SU in those games with their only win coming at home by 5 points vs this CSU team. In that game, the Rams led on the road at halftime and for a majority of the 2nd half as well in their 77-72 loss where the Utah State fans stormed the court after the win. The difference in that game was at the FT line where USU made 20 freebies and CSU made only 4. Despite that huge disparity the game still was close throughout. Now we’re getting Colorado State back at home where they are undefeated in conference play including knocking off the 2 highest rated teams in the league (San Diego State & New Mexico) both by 8 points. They enter this game off a loss @ San Diego State on Tuesday (we were on the Aztecs in that game) blowing a 14 point halftime lead and scoring only 11 points the entire 2nd half. That should give them another shot of motivation for this one. At home this CSU team is great offensively. They already rank 14th nationally in eFG% but at home this team hits 53% of their shots on 1.17 PPP and averages 83 PPG. The Aggies are off an 8 point road win at Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the conference, and their overall road record is solid at 6-3. However, they haven’t beaten a single team on the road ranked above 90 (CSU is currently ranked 36th) and they lost to every top 50 team they’ve played on the road this season. Colorado State has played the tougher overall schedule this season and despite that their efficiency margin numbers are still better than Utah State. We like the Rams to get a big home win on Saturday. |
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02-16-24 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
#896 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over New Mexico, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rinse and repeat. We’ve been on SDSU at home in revenge spots this season vs Utah State, Colorado State, and Nevada and picked up 3 double digit wins. We’re on them again on Friday night at home vs New Mexico who gave the Aztecs their worst loss of the season 88-70 back in mid January. It was the only double digit loss for San Diego State this season. Now they get the Lobos at home where they are basically unbeatable. The Aztecs are 12-0 SU at home this season with 11 of those 12 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 50-2 SU their last 52 home games! These 2 are tied for 2nd place in the MWC at 8-4 but the Lobos have shown some signs of struggling after their red hot run in January. They had won 5 in a row in January but are just 2-2 their last 4 games, both home losses to Boise and UNLV which throws up a few red flags. Their 2 wins during that 4 game stretch came vs Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the league, and a 1 point win @ Nevada on Tuesday winning on a last second 3 pointer. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after allowing the most points they have all season (in regulation) when they played @ NM. The Aztecs continue to lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU still has not allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. They held a potent CSU offense to 11, yes 11, second half points earlier this week which was a win for us on SDSU. We’ll keep going to this well with SDSU at home in revenge mode. Lay it. |
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02-16-24 | Hurricanes -1.5 v. Coyotes | Top | 5-1 | Win | 124 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals +120) over Arizona Coyotes, Friday at 9:05 PM ET - Carolina is in a great spot here which is why the odds on the Hurricanes have risen to as high as a -225 favorite on the money line. Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the +120 range on this one. Regardless of the starting goalies here, we are strong on the Canes in this spot. However, we will mention that the expected starters are Karel Vejmelka for the Coyotes and Pyotr Kochetkov for the Hurricanes. Kochetkov allowed 3 goals in the loss to Dallas but had allowed 2 or less goals in each of his 7 road starts since mid-December - and an average of just 1.4 goals ruing this stretch! Arizona is without #1 goalie Connor Ingram as he was hurt in the 3-1 home loss to Minnesota Wednesday. Vejmelka has lost 14 of 20 decisions this season and has a 3.36 GAA on the season. He has allowed 26 goals in his last 6 starts including allowing at least 4 goals in 5 of those 6 starts! Vejmelka is struggling badly and faces a tall order here. The Hurricanes come to Arizona hungry for a win as they are off a 4-2 loss at Dallas. The Canes team is well-coached and is an especially tough team when off a loss. The Hurricanes had won 13 of 17 games prior to that loss. Unlike red hot Carolina, Arizona has been trending in the other direction. The Coyotes have lost 13 of 17 games and that includes 7 in a row! 16 of last 21 Arizona losses have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. The Coyotes are struggling to score goals so another loss by a multi-goal margin appears likely here. Arizona's has averaged just 1.9 goals scored in last 18 losses. Carolina has averaged 4.2 goals scored in last 14 wins. We look for at least a 4-2 final in this one and the rested Hurricanes off a loss coupled with the Coyotes goalie situation makes a win by a 3-goal margin quite possible here. Road team in a blowout has high probability here per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Carolina is the value play here. |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies, 8:30 PM ET - New head coach Doc Rivers is working hard to implement his system in Milwaukee and it certainly has been a process. What’s evident is the Bucks pace of play and how they’ve slowed down offensively. The Bucks average 101.3 possessions per game on the season which is 5th fastest. In their last five games they are averaging 97.5 possessions per game which ranks 19th slowest. The Bucks offensive efficiency has fallen dramatically in their last five games but the defense has improved immensely as they allow only 1.124-points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA over the last 5 games. Looking at that same 5 game stretch the Grizzlies are last in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.055PPP. On the season the Grizz average the lowest points scored at 106.7PPG. Heading into the All-Star break we are betting both teams are looking forward to the time off so we can’t imagine either being enthused in a high scoring game. Lastly, the Grizz are coming off a game last night and they are 1-8 to the Under when playing without rest this season. |
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02-15-24 | Hofstra v. Drexel -3.5 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drexel -3.5 over Hofstra, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some nice line value in this game with Drexel laying a short number at home. That’s because the Dragons have lost 4 of their last 5 games while Hofstra has won 7 of their last 8. Hofstra has played only ONE team ranked in the top 200 over their last 8 games while Drexel has faced 4 opponents ranked inside the top 200 in their last 5 games. Their 4 losses during that stretch have all been on the road and they are entering this game off 3 straight losses (all on the road) so we expect a motivated effort here from the host. They are catching Hofstra in a rough scheduling spot as well playing their 3rd road game in a week. The Pride step into this game off back to back road wins last Thursday @ Hamptons and on Saturday @ North Carolina A&T. Nothing overly impressive about those 2 wins topping 2 of the worst teams in college basketball who rank 351st and 343rd respectively. Now Hofstra takes a huge step up in competition vs a home team that is very motivated to get a win. The 4 highest rated teams (per KenPom) in the CAA this year are UNC Wilmington, Charleston, Drexel, and Delaware. The Dragons have played host to 2 of those teams (UNCW & Delaware) and rolled to easy wins by 15 and 19 points. They were favored by 6 at home vs Delaware and now they are laying a full possession lower than that vs a Hofstra team that is rated lower. Both of these teams are 8-4 in CAA action but Drexel has played the #5 strength of schedule in conference play while Hofstra has played the easiest slate. Despite playing the much tougher slate in CAA play Drexel has better efficiency numbers with a +12.00 efficiency margin (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) while Hofstra is +7.00 in that key category. Drexel is the better team here, in the much better situation, laying a small number at home. We’ll take it. |
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -3.5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Rutgers is peaking right now to say the least having won 3 in a row, 2 of those wins on the road, and in their most recent game on Saturday they rolled Wisconsin, one of the top teams in the Big 10, by 22 points. Much of that has been their outstanding defense holding 3 straight opponents to less than 60 points and all scored fewer than 0.87 PPP, but the offense received a boost as well. That’s because Temple transfer, Jeremiah Williams, finally was on the court the last 3 games after missing the first 20 games of the season. Williams has scored 42 points, grabbed 16 board, and had 9 assists in those 3 wins giving them a huge offensive boost. If the offense continues to improve, watch out. They should play well in this one vs a NW defense that has struggled all year ranking dead last in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed. The Rutgers defense ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and have allowed opponents to shoot only 36% at home while giving up only 60 PPG. They are catching Northwestern in a bad spot. The Cats are off back to back home wins vs Nebraska & Penn State, however this team has been flat out poor on the road with a 1-5 SU record with their only road win coming @ PSU by 4 points in a game the Nittany Lions blew and 2nd half double digit lead. On top of that, NW will be playing without one of their key starters, Ty Berry, who injured his knew 2 games ago vs Nebraska and is now out of the season. He is their top 3 point shooter and averages 12 PPG. He would also be key in this game vs the Rutgers full court pressure so his absence will be a problem here. We feel the Scarlet Knights will be a problem for a number of teams down the stretch and call for a home win and cover on Thursday night. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers +4 v. Warriors | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
ASA play on LA Clippers +4 vs. Golden State Warriors 10 PM ET - I’ll start with the fact that I’ve been wrong betting against Golden State in their last two games. That changes here as we get a win tonight with the Clippers in this Western Conference showdown. The Warriors have won 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 but only 1 of those wins came against a team the quality of the Clippers. Golden State was recently a 1-point dog to the Kings on this court and favored by 1.5 against the Lakers and lost both games. The Clippers are climbing the ranks in our power rankings and we currently have them as the 4th best team in the NBA. They are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to the Timberwolves and should bounce back here. The Clippers are 27-7 in their last 34 games and 5th best Adjusted Net rating in the NBA. LA is 15-11 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average net differential per game of +4.4PPG. The Clippers are 10-6 Su this season off a loss with an average +/- of +4.1PPG. Even though LA is likely without Kawhi Leonard here, buck the home team trend here of 9 straight winners. |
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02-14-24 | Kings v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 102-98 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA play on Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - This is the ideal spot to back the Nuggets and fade the Kings. Denver returns home after a most recent loss to the Bucks. Sacramento has to play in the higher altitude after a huge game last night in Phoenix. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU this season when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +3.8PPG. At home the Nugget are 21-4 SU this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +9.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season, nobody in the NBA has a better home record than Denver at 65-12 SU, +9.8PPG. The Kings were fantastic on the road a season ago but have regressed to 15-13 SU away this season with an average MOV of +0.1PPG. Going back to last season the Kings are 10-12 ATS when playing without rest. Lastly, this is a quick turnaround game for these teams as they just met in Sacramento where the Kings put a smackdown on the Nuggets in a 135-106 win. Denver was coming off a big win over the Lakers the night before while the Kings were rested. Easy call here with Denver at home. |
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02-14-24 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 146 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
#697/698 ASA PLAY ON Under 146 Points – Iowa vs Maryland, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Iowa likes to play up tempo but Maryland will want to slow this game down (304th in tempo) and limit Iowa’s offensive possessions. We feel they’ll get the pace they want at home. Iowa’s offensive numbers are very solid but they are a completely differently team on the road on that end of the court. The Hawkeyes average 13 fewer PPG on the road this season and shoot just 45% compared to almost 50% at home. We highly doubt Iowa reaches their offensive averages on the road here vs a Maryland defense that ranks #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and scoring defense. They also make offenses work very hard to get a shot off with the Terps allowing a shot every 18.2 seconds which is in the top 25 nationally. Offensively Maryland struggles so they need to win slow paced, low scoring games. They rank dead last in the Big 10 in scoring (conference games), 13th in offensive efficiency, and 13th in eFG%. The Terps games in conference play have averaged just 130 total points and that includes 2 OT games. If we subtract OT games, Maryland has not topped 142 total points in any conference game this season. When these 2 met in Iowa, where Hawks games average 172 total points, they put up just 136 (Maryland 69-67 win). |
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02-14-24 | VMI v. Furman OVER 164 | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
#659/660 ASA PLAY ON Over 163 Points – VMI vs Furman, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and the total was set at 166 and they scored 160 points. We’re getting this one a full 3 points lower than the first meeting (as of the opener which was 163) and we like the value on the Over. In the first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot 43.7% from the field (nothing great) and the combined to make only 17 FT’s in the game and they still reached 160 points. Furman put up 100 points in that game (100-60 final score) which may seem like an anomaly but that is not the case when facing this VMI defense. In fact, the Cadets have played 12 conference games this season and allowed at least 100 points in nearly half of those games (5)! On the season VMI is allowing 94 PPG in SoCon play. They rank outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed and they play at the 2nd fastest pace in the nation per KenPom. Needless to say we expect Furman, who averages over 80 PPG on the season, to possibly reach triple digits again. VMI’s offense doesn’t have good shooting numbers, however because they play so fast they average over 70 PPG on the season. They’ve scored at least 70 points in 7 of their 12 SoCon games this season. VMI is also facing a Furman defense that isn’t great ranking 321st in FG% allowed, 350th in FG made per game, and 331st in FG attempted per game. The Paladins also play very fast 59th in tempo per KenPom. We should have tons of offensive possessions in this game and the offenses should rule the day. Over is the play. |
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02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -5.5 | Top | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON San Diego State -5.5 over Colorado State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - SDSU is looking for revenge in this one after losing 79-71 @ CSU a few weeks ago. We were on the Rams in that game, but a completely different situation for this one. In that game CSU was off back to back road losses and in a must win spot at home. Now they travel to San Diego State, who is off an OT road loss @ Nevada on Friday and now back home where they are pretty much unbeatable. They’ve responded after each of their first 5 losses with wins and 4 of those bounce backs have come by double digits. The Aztecs are 11-0 SU at home this season with 10 of those 11 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 49-2 SU their last 51 home games. While San Diego State has been flawless at home, Colorado State is just 1-4 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. In the first meeting, CSU shot lights out at home hitting 54% of their shots, the Rams made 9 more FT’s in the 8 point win and averaged 1.20 PPP, the most SDSU has allowed to any opponent this season. Their home offensive numbers are very good but the Rams drop off quite drastically on the road. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after that poor performance @ CSU. They lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU has now allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. As we stated above the Aztecs home court advantage is among the best in college hoops and they’ve dominated CSU here winning 18 of the last 20 meetings. We’ll call for another win and cover for San Diego State tonight. |
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02-13-24 | Devils v. Predators OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
#25/26 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators, Tuesday at / PM ET - We like this over even if these goalies do not go but, barring something unforeseen prior to drop of the puck, the expected goalie match-up here is also great news for an over. Because of Nico Daws starting last night coupled with #1 goalie Vitek Vanecek currently out with an injury, the Devils options tonight are Daws again in the 2nd night of a B2B (always tough on a goalie) or go with the #3 guy Akira Schmid (3.38 GAA in 11 night game starts this season) who has been down in the American Hockey League until being called up because of the Vanecek injury. New Jersey expected to go with their third choice, Schmid, and he is expected to be matched up with Juuse Saros of the Predators. Note that Saros is struggling right now. Saros has a modest 2.97 GAA this season but has allowed 11 in his last 3 starts! Saros will face a Devils team that scored 3 early goals in their win last night and could have scored 5 or 6 goals in that game were it not for some great saves from the Kraken goalie. New Jersey looked great on the attack last night and they have scored at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 games. We expect each team to get to 3 goals here and force this one to get to at least a 4-3 final in Nashville. The Predators have allowed at least 4 goals in 5 of last 6 games. The Predators have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 7 home games! The Devils, prior to the 3-1 win over Seattle, had seen 5 of last 7 games total at least 8 goals! Based on all of the above, this is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one and like the added value here of working with a posted total of 6.5 at low juice across the board in this one! Over is our play here |
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02-13-24 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 227 | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET - Unfortunately, the All-Star break comes at a really bad time as, prior to tough Monday, we are locked in on the NBA right now. Tonight, we will bet the OVER in this Eastern Conference showdown. The Celtics are going to get to 120+ in this game as they average that number on the season. Boston is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.213-points per possession and has the 6th best Effective Field Goal percentage at 56.8%. The C’s should have an easy go of it on the offensive end of the court against a Nets defense that ranks 18th in defensive efficiency and allows 115.4PPG. The Nets defense has been even worse in their last five games allowing 1.228-points per possession and 120.6PPG. Boston is the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the league and should exploit a Brooklyn D that ranks 24th in opponents 3PT% allowed. We will need Brooklyn to score in this game but if they get to around 110 this game should go Over rather easily. The Nets average 113.9PPG on the season and do it with volume shooting as they rank 4th in FG attempts per game. We expect a total of 230 or more points. |
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02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 121-100 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - We are betting the number here as this line is ‘light’ in our opinion and based on our power ratings. These teams met on January 14th in Minnesota and the Clippers were a 1-point road favorite. The Clippers were even without their starting center Zubac. That game went down to the wire with the Wolves winning by 4-points despite the Clippers shooting just 43% as a team and attempting 13 less FT’s. Minnesota shot 57% as a team and 50% from the 3-point line. The shooting percentages will even out tonight and we would expect the Clippers to get a few more calls as the home team. Minnesota is .500 or 36-36 SU their last 72 road games with a negative differential of minus -0.3PPG. In that same time frame the Clippers are 43-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +3.9PPG. The favorite has covered 7 of the last ten in this series and we expect Los Angeles to get a double-digit win here as they get revenge for that tight loss at Minnesota last month. Revenge home rout here! |
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02-12-24 | Warriors v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 129-107 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on Utah Jazz -1.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Jazz here who have been off since Thursday and will be well rested here. Golden State played a tough 5-game East Coast Road, then played a huge home game versus Phoenix and now travel back to Utah. The Warriors have won 4-straight games and 6 of their last seven games yet are a road dog here? The Jazz have recent home wins over the Bucks and Thunder who both grades out better than the Warriors. These two teams are much closer than you might think when it comes to offensive and defensive efficiency rating, yet the spread on this game is swayed by public money and influence for the Warriors. Utah is 17-7 SU at home this season with the 7th best average point differential at +7.6PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Warriors are 23-47 SU with an average differential of minus -2.4PPG. We will back the home team here. |
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02-12-24 | Wake Forest +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#881 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wake Forest +7 or +7.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - Too many points here to give a WF team we think will give Duke problems. The Deacs are an outstanding shooting team (25th in eFG%) especially from deep where they hit 38% of their triples (17th in the nation). That plays well into Duke’s defensive weakness as the Devils rank outside the top 135 defending the arc. The Demon Deacons have a number of players that can put the ball in the basket (4 guys averaging at least 14 PPG) making them a very tough guard. Wake is also a great FT shooting team hitting over 80% and they can score points (81 PPG) which makes it very tough to pull away from this team. In fact, 6 of their 7 losses this year have come by less than this spread with their only really poor outing coming @ UNC where they lost by double digits and made only 3 of 20 triples on the night (15%). Duke is 12-2 at home this year but they’ve had a few close calls to go along with their losses here vs Pitt & Arizona. They barely squeaked by Clemson (by 1 point) and struggled with a bad Ga Tech team (won by 5). Wake will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) Duke has faced at home this season and they’ve only faced 2 top 30 teams at Cameron Indoor this year losing vs Arizona and beating Clemson by 1 on 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining in the game. The Deacs have taken Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor each of the last 2 seasons losing both by 2 points so they will not be intimidated in this venue. We think this one goes to the wire and getting 7 points is a solid cushion. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 42 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +2 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - We’ll side with the better QB, the better defense, and the more experienced coach getting points in the Super Bowl. We’re all aware of the success KC has as an underdog. The Chiefs are on a tear that's seen them go 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. They were the outright winner in 15 of these games. Some of that predates Mahomes but if we look at the games where he was QB and the Chiefs were underdogs they are 10-1-1 ATS including winning 9 of those 12 games outright. The road KC took to get here was by far more impressive than what the Niners did. Mahomes and company beat a very good Miami team handily, then went on the road and beat the hottest team in the NFL (Buffalo) and followed that up with a road win at what most, including us, considered the best team in the NFL (Baltimore). Meanwhile, San Fran struggled to win home games vs 7 seed Green Bay and Detroit. Truth be told, the 49ers probably shouldn’t even be here as they led for only 27 minutes in those 2 games combined (out of 120 total minutes). SF QB Purdy is solid but is completely inexperienced in this spot and has looked a bit frazzled at times the first 2 games of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Mahomes has played in 17 playoff games (14-3 SU record) and 3 Super Bowls. Huge QB edge to KC. The Chiefs have better overall numbers defensively (PPG, YPG, YPP) and they have played very well during this playoff run holding a potent Miami offense to 7 points, Buffalo put up 24 but on only 4.7 YPP, and they held the Ravens to 10 points in Baltimore. The Niners gave up 31 points last week to Detroit and 21 to Green Bay although the Packers blew some opportunities and only punted 1 time in the game. The KC defense gave up 11 points less than SF in the playoffs despite playing an extra game! Over their last 6 games SF’s defense allowed 29, 33, 10 (vs Washington), 21, 21, and 31 points. Not great. KC’s impressive run through the AFC (winning as underdogs) puts them in a good spot historically. In fact, in the last 20 seasons, there have been 8 teams that won outright in Championship game as an underdog and those teams went on to win 6 times (out of 8) in the Super Bowl. On top of that, dogs have covered 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls and we’re confident it will happen again this year. We like KC to win this game outright so take the points. |
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02-11-24 | Kings v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 3 PM ET - The Thunder are coming off a big loss at Dallas yesterday and should bounce back at home where they are 20-6 SU this season. The Thunders starters should not be overly fatigued here as they had 3 days off prior to yesterday's game and didn’t play much versus Dallas in the blowout. As we mentioned, OKC is 20-6 SU at home, 17-9 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +10PPG. Sacramento could let down here as they are coming off a huge 29-point home win over the Nuggets on Friday evening. Sacramento is 15-12 SU away from home this season with an average MOV of +0.6PPG. The Kings rank 15th in turnovers per game and the Thunder are the best defense in the league in turning teams over. OKC also enjoys a huge advantage with their 3rd best shooting percentage at 49.9% versus a Kings D that allows opponents to hit 48.7% of their FGA’s which ranks 22nd. The Thunder are the 3rd best 3PT% in the NBA and the Kings are last in defending the 3-point line. Lastly the Thunder are playing with double revenge as they’ve lost twice to Sacramento this season. Lay the short number with OKC. |
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02-10-24 | Arizona v. Colorado -125 | Top | 99-79 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado Pick -123 or -1.5 -115 over Arizona, Saturday at 10 PM ET - With an option of -1.5 -115 or money line of -123, the latter would be the best option of course for such a small variance. We like the Buffaloes to win here at home! This is a really rough spot for the Wildcats taking on a very good Colorado team. The Cats just played @ Utah on Thursday night and won in triple OT with 4 of their starters logging at least 44 minutes in high altitude. Now just 48 hours later they are @ Colorado, where the Buffs are a perfect 13-0 SU at home, in high altitude again which should wear on Arizona both physically and mentally. The Utah to Colorado road trip is already considered the most difficult in the conference and coming off triple OT doesn’t make it any easier. On top of that, the Wildcats have not had much success in Boulder losing 5 straight and 7 of the 9 meetings here since the Buffs joined the Pac 12 back in 2011. Giving CU some extra motivation is the fact they were absolutely steamrolled in Tucson earlier this year by a final score of 97-50, by far their worst outing of the season as each of their other 6 losses this season came by single digits. It wouldn’t have mattered on that day but it’s worth noting that CU played without 2 starters in that game, Williams and DaSilva, who combined to average 30 PPG & 9 RPG. Despite their triple OT win on Thursday, Arizona has been vulnerable on the road already losing @ Stanford, @ Washington State, and @ Oregon State, none of which are rated as high as this Colorado team. This is a huge game for CU’s NCAA tourney hopes and a win pulls them to within 1 game of 1st place in the Pac 12 behind this Arizona team. The Buffs hit the road for their next 2 games and they are 1-6 on the road this year adding more importance to getting a win here. KenPom has Colorado rated as the 2nd best team in the Pac 12 (as do we) behind Arizona and in this situational spot we don’t see the Cats winning this game. Take the home team. |
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02-10-24 | Suns -1.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -1.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Suns are 3-0 against the Warriors this season and have that record despite one of their “big 3” not playing in each of those W’s. All-Star PG Booker sat out the Suns last game for load management but will play today so Phoenix will have their full complement of Stars. Golden State is playing their first game at home after a recent 5-game East coast road trip and will struggle in this match up. The Clippers, Lakers and Kings, a few other West coast teams, underperformed in their first games home after a similar travel schedule in recent weeks. The Suns are starting to look like the contender they were predicted to be prior to the start of the season. Phoenix has won 5 of their last 6 and 7 of 10. Golden State on the other hand has seen their Championship window close with an aging roster that hasn’t made any improvements. Phoenix is the better shooting team at 50% (3rd best) compared to the Warriors who rank 17th at 47.4%. The Warriors are 9th in 3-point percentage, but the Suns are 5th. When the Warriors were at their peak, they were one of the best teams in the league defensively. They don’t have that advantage here either as the Suns allow 1.157-points per possession compared to the Warriors who give up 1.172PPP. Steph Curry just scored 42-points against the Pacers and carried this Warriors team to a win. We don’t expect a repeat performance in this scheduling situation. I’m betting we also get a motivated effort from Kevin Durant against his former team. Lastly, the Suns being favored here tells us enough. Back Phoenix. |
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02-10-24 | Bulls +5 v. Magic | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The underdog is the way to go in this one as these two teams are very even and many aspects with the Bulls at 25-27 SU and the Magic at 28-24. Chicago is slightly better when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings at 1.137-points per possession compared to the Magic who average 1.129PPP. Defensively the Magic have the advantage allowing 1.119PPP compared to the Bulls giving up 1.153PPP. The two meetings between these two teams this season were close with the Magic winning by 6 and 2-points in the two meetings. In fact, the Underdog has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two Eastern Conference foes. The big edge we see the Bulls have in this matchup is the fact that they don’t turn it over like Orlando does. The Bulls average the 4th fewest TO’s per game, the Magic turn it over 14.4 times per game which is 23rd worst. Orlando has been a great favorite this year but the oddsmakers are starting to adjust their pricing on the Magic, giving us some added value here. Chicago has won 3 straight road games and are more than capable of hanging with the young Magic on their home court. |
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02-10-24 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville OVER 151 | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#773/774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – Georgia Tech vs Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Don’t look now but the Cards offense has been flat out really good over their last few games. They put up 101 points at home last weekend vs FSU and then followed that up with 92 points @ Syracuse on Wednesday. They averaged 1.25 and 1.17 PPP in those 2 games. While their offense seems to absolutely be peaking, the Cards defense stinks. They’ve allowed 90+ points in each of their last 2 games and they’ve given up at least 80 points in 7 of their 12 ACC games. They rank dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and PPG allowed (81 PPG) in league games. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t any better. They rank 13th (out of 14) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (80 PPG). The Yellow Jackets have allowed at least 80 points in every ACC road game this season. So we have the 2 worst defenses in the conference going head to head here. We’re also going to have a faster paced game with Louisville really focusing on up tempo as of late and for the season they rank 71st in tempo. Tech doesn’t mind playing fast and their offense ranks 6th in the conference in eFG% and 3 point FG%. They should do some damage vs this poor Card defense. Tech’s road games in conference play have totaled 158, 158, 183, 163, and 153 points. Louisville’s home games in league play have totaled 193, 121 (vs Virginia great defense, slow pace), 152, 171, and 153 points. The opener of 151 is too low for these teams. We’ll go Over the total. |
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02-10-24 | Maryland +2.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
#707 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This OSU team has to be completely demoralized at this point. Not only have they lost 8 of their last 9 games, they just blew an 18 point 2nd half lead at home on Tuesday night and lost to Indiana 76-73. That was only the 2nd road win this season for the Hoosiers. Blowing a huge lead like that we just can’t imagine this plummeting OSU team is in the right frame of mind right now. One telling statistic in regards to the Buckeyes is the fact they are 3-9 on Big 10 play (last place) despite playing the easiest conference schedule per KenPom. That speaks volumes. Maryland is coming of 2 straight losses vs Michigan State and Rutgers but this team is improving. They’ve also proven they can win on the road already beating Illinois, UCLA, and Iowa away from home this season. We’re getting a massive defensive edge in this game by siding with Maryland. They rank #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and scoring allowing only 63 PPG. Compare that to the Buckeyes who are dead last in the conference in defensive efficiency, dead last in 3 point FG% allowed, and 12th in eFG% allowed while giving up 77 PPG in league play. The Terps offensive numbers are nothing to write home about but they are facing one of the worst defenses in the Big 10. The Bucks aren’t great offensively either ranking just 8th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 12th in eFG% but facing a high level defense. We don’t expect them to do much at all vs this Maryland defense. OSU is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season in Big 10 play and they’ve won only 3 of those games outright. We like Maryland here. |