Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses. The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit. Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion. These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4. Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above. That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be. The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year. They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road. Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points. Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions. Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit). When they’ve had to play better teams away from home, they’ve lost. These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those. We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday. |
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11-24-18 | Colorado -4.5 v. Air Force | Top | 93-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip. It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away. In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago. CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on. Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be. However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3. The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado. AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State). Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally). Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots. They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win). Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points). Colorado gets the cover on the road here. |
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11-24-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will. |
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11-23-18 | Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -6.5 | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU. They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog. The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc. ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers. Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter. However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs. They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points. We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game. All of that and UNI still only won by a single point. ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game. Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points. This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago. They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot. Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot. They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games. Lay it as Old Dominion rolls. |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET Brutal spot here for Chicago. They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road. Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start. The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota. If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB. We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway. His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road. Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2. They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game. Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here. All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth. After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina. They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago. That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit. So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win. |
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11-20-18 | Colorado v. San Diego -4 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get. This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU. Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros. That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here. First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup. All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team. The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years. They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts. It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run. While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition. Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points. The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games. They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season. The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago. San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight. |
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11-20-18 | Blazers v. Knicks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 118-114 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ NY Knicks, 7:30PM ET - Some solid indicators here with the money and tickets chasing the Over, yet the line dipped 2 full points from the opener. Based on the pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers this game should result in 215 total points. Portland is average in pace of play or 15th in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game. New York is slower yet at 100 possessions per game which will continue to trend lower with Coach Fizdale running the show. Portland is one of the best DEFF teams in the league while the Knicks are one of the worst. The same can be said about the OEFF numbers as Portland is top 10 in the league, Knicks bottom 10. New York shoots under 43% at home this year and averages 106PPG. Portland has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Bucks and won’t be interested in playing an up-and-down game tonight and look to rest starters as much as possible. Last year when these two teams met they combined for 198 and 194 total points. The bet here is UNDER! |
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11-19-18 | Thunder -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62.5 | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 62.5 Points - Kansas City @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET We realize this is a very high total (highest ever) but we think the OVER is the play here. We like both teams to get into the 30’s tonight. KC has scored at least 30 in 8 of their 10 games while the LA Rams have done the same. The Chiefs and their opponents have scored at least 55 points in 6 of their 10 games this year. The Rams and their opponents have scored at least 56 points in 6 of their 10 games. These two teams lead the NFL in yards per play offense averaging a ridiculous 6.9 YPP. KC has played 2 of the top 8 YPP offenses this year and those games resulted in 79 points (vs Pitt) and 66 points (vs Chargers). The Rams have played 3 of the top 8 YPP offense this year and those games have resulted in 90 points (vs Saints), 58 points (vs Chargers), and 58 points (vs Packers). Defensively neither of these teams are very good. They both rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP. Most might be tempted to lean under where the total is set so high but historically that has been a losing proposition. In fact, since 2000 there have been 12 games with a total of 58 or higher and the OVER is 9-2-1 in those games. The last two seasons there have been 3 games that have had a total of 58 or higher and the OVER cashed on all 3 of those. Both teams push into the 30’s here and this one goes OVER. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +2.5 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog! |
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11-17-18 | Iowa State v. Texas OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP PLAY Over the total – Iowa State @ Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This total is well too low in our opinion. We had it projected in the mid 50’s and we’re getting a full TD+ less than that here. Part of the reason for the low number might be the recent history between these teams which has been low scoring. However, keep in mind neither of these coaches have been at the school very long (Herman in his 2nd year @ Texas & Campbell in his 3rd year @ ISU) so those historical numbers aren’t as important in our analysis. Last year Texas won this match up 17-7 and the year before it was Texas 27-6. Those totals were set at 62 & 69 respectively and now this one sits below 50 because of those two results. The ISU offense is much improved this year while the Texas defense is down allowing 420 YPG. We see no way that UT shuts down the Cyclone offense that has scored 48, 30, 40, 27, and 28 points their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense has allowed at least 34 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense did shut down TCU & KSU to 16 & 14 points respectively in their first two conference games but those are the 2 of the 3 worst offenses in the Big 12 in scoring offense with the other being Kansas who Texas plays next weekend. Even with the poor offenses in play in those two games, the totals were BOTH set higher than this on (48.5 & 50). Herman has his offense humming in his 2nd year as head coach. They have scored at least 28 points in all but 2 games this year. They play fast averaging 76 plays per game which is 16th nationally. They are a tough offense to defend as they are very balanced. Iowa State’s overall defensive numbers are off in our mind. They played very well against weak offenses this year (Kansas & TCU) and have one outlier game where they shut down WVU’s offense to 14 points. That is not the norm for this team. It was just one of those games in our opinion. Last week it may look like they played great defensively holding a middle of the pack Baylor offense to just 14 points. Take a closer look. The Bears had over 500 yards of total offense but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside the ISU 15-yard line. That 28-14 final was very misleading as Baylor potentially left 20+ points off the board in that game. Even with that those two got to 42 points which isn’t far off this posted total. Offensively, ISU struggled early in the year but since switching to Brock Purdy at QB in early October. In his 5 starts the Cyclones are averaging 34 PPG and have not been held under 27 in any of those games. We also like the fact that ISU tends to play how their opponent plays. They can play fast or slow. They were in grinder, low-scoring games TCU & Kansas but vs teams that are similar in style to Texas (Okla St, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma) they were involved in high scoring games (90, 71, and 64 points scored respectively). In games they can get a lead and grind the offense they do that. In games where they have trouble slowing down the other team, which we feel they will here, they have to score to keep up and they do just that. We don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense in this game. Both teams have been quite efficient on a yards per point basis with Texas averaging 12.9 & ISU 13.7. The weather looks perfect in Austin with temps in the mid 60’s and light wins in the forecast at gametime. This one goes OVER this total easily. |
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one. |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers. It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week. Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel. They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week. That is as tough a schedule as you could map out. Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season. They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL. Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31. Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST! Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL). That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game. Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s. It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s. On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season). Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights. They are just 2-8 SU this year. GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks. Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above. The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This is an absolute must win for the Packers. They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots. They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes. The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL. They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17. The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game. Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense. The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG. Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs. They did not score an offensive TD. With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion. The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game. Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games. The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games. All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points. Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points. The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team. We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s. |
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11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story. Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards! That’s it. They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense. Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference. The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards. Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week. The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home. The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was. This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits. The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012. Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year. On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa). Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September. Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago? Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky? We’ll take it. |
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11-10-18 | Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215 |
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11-08-18 | Bucks v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland. They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. |
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11-04-18 | Texans v. Broncos | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH Hmmm? We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored. Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game. The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49. They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points. Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore. The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home. Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT. The home team should have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders). They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL). That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league. By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking. That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground. The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home. Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th. Lay the small number with Denver. |
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11-04-18 | Bucs +7 v. Panthers | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB. Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us. Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3. Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff. Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season. Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16. He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG. The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend. Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore. They played very well but were an underdog in that game. Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role. This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less. The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer. The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season). With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points. We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset. Take the points. |
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11-03-18 | Penn State v. Michigan -12 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406 |
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10-30-18 | Devils +150 v. Lightning | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Jersey Devils Money Line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET |
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10-28-18 | 49ers -1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down. They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB. He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts. Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least. They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses. Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team. Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats. In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10! That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo. San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively. We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games. Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid. The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year. They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season. They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season. That’s bad folks. While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray. They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded. We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team. The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him. We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday. |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh. The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season. They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati. They also dominated those games on the stat sheet. They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season. In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in. Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win. Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games. They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks. They look like they are running out of gas to us. They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards. Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland. Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game. The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense). The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD. The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping. Lay it. |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180 |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162 |
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10-24-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5 Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away. |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points. |
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10-20-18 | Mississippi State v. LSU OVER 45 | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #403 |
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10-18-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 46 Points - Arizona @ Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET Both of these teams are 4-1 to the OVER this year and we expect another high scoring game on Monday night. Much has been made of Aaron Rodgers knee problem but the fact is the offense is clicking right now knee problem or not. They have topped 400 yards in each of the last 2 games and while they scored 22 and 23 points in those games, it should have been much more. Last week vs Detroit they put up 23 points but the normally reliable Mason Crosby missed 4 FG’s and an extra point thus leaving a potential 13 more points off the board. A week earlier Green Bay had 19 points just a few minutes into the 2nd half but a terrible Buffalo offense had yet to score so the Pack went pretty conservative offensively and only score one more FG the rest of the way. We don’t anticipate that happening here. Green Bay needs a breakout performance (scoring wise) and we think they get it tonight vs a SF defense that has allowed 24, 27, 38, 29, and 28 points in their 5 games this season. The Niners are 23rd in pass efficiency defense and they do not put much pressure on the QB (1.8 sacks per game). Rodgers should have a big night. There is also a good chance he gets WR’s Cobb and Allison back as they practiced on Thursday and they are game time decisions. Many thought the Niners offense would go in the tank once they lost QB Garopollo for the season. That really hasn’t been the case as his back up CJ Beathard has led this offense to 27 & 18 points in his absence. Last week’s 18 point performance should have been MUCH higher as they put up 447 yards vs a solid Arizona defense but missed a FG and had 5 turnovers – many in Arizona territory. Beathard has thrown for 298 & 349 yards in his 2 starts but he’s also prone to mistakes as he’s turned the ball over 4 times. Those can lead to defensive scores as he’s given up one in each of his two starts. The only shut down game for Green Bay’s defense this year was their shutout vs Buffalo. Let’s not forget the Bills are the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 12 PPG and a terrible 3.7 yards per play which is by far the lowest in the league. Throw out that game and the Packer defense has allowed an average of 28.5 PPG. The weather looks decent tonight with temps in the 30’s and little wind (10 MPH or less). We like the OVER tonight. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement. Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years. Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game? Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here. New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night. While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date. They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense). To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks. Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6. The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions. QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s. We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one. The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense. We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS). They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010. KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them. The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots. Lay the small number with New England. |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year. They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31. IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season. Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude. They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets. The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010. They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday. While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home. They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter. They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team. You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more. The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8. After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3. Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL. That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC. This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold. The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look. People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home. Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards. It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game. Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL. NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday. Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver. The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night. Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses. Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT). The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid. They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game. Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss. He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games. We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday. |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -6.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156 |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re getting points with the better team here. Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme. We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game. They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories. Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed. KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them. While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst. They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency. The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans. They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense. We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here. KC is overvalued right now because of their offense. They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense. They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense. The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP. This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot. We’ll make sure we do. Take the Jags here. |
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10-06-18 | Iowa -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 48-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387 |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points. That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th. The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season. On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one. The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa. However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense. The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game. Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season. They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday. Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense. Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less. The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year. Take the points. |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants UNDER 52 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 52 Points - New Orleans @ NY Giants, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET We like the value with the number here as this total has been bet all the way up to 52 after opening at 49. Vegas is forced to set the number this high as the Saints have played two games that ended with 168 total combined points. But those games came against the Falcons and Bucs who both have horrible defenses (29th and 30th in defensive efficiency) and good offenses (TB 5th, ATL 12th in offensive efficiency). That produced to VERY high scoring games with the Saints. In their other game against the Browns (similar to the Giants) they totaled just 39 points. What's important to note here is that the Saints defense has some ugly statistics this season, but again, consider they've played two really bad defenses and padded those numbers. The same can be said about their offense. The Giants meanwhile have played two of three low scoring affairs with totals of 35, 33 and 49 points. In their game in Houston last week the Giants and Texans had just 35 total points with 2 minutes to play before two late garbage TD's by the Texans (1 came with 1 second left). The Giants are allowing just 20.7PPG and have the 9th best yards per point defense in the NFL. You have to go back a few years to find a Giants game with a total set this high which tells us enough. New York is 27th in the NFL in pace of play while the Saints are 21st. In the last seven meetings in the Big Apple the Under has cashed 5 times. Bet UNDER! |
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09-30-18 | Browns v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg). The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141 |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay. This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record. The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo. They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite. A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck. The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over. Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan. They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes. The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits. Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6. The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3. Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss. They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe. Take the points here. |
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09-25-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL. Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points. Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win. Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games. Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster. Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts. A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense. Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games. Expect a big day from him. The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game. They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year. Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread. Baltimore by a TD or more in this one. |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392 |
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09-19-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 41.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 41.5 Points - NY Giants @ Dalllas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET Because of the way these two offenses performed in week 1, we’re getting some solid value on the OVER here. The total opened 43.5 and has dropped ever since and we’re now jumping on the OVER. Last week Dallas scored only 8 points and the NY Giants put up just 15. While neither team lit it up yardage wise, both moved the ball enough to score more than what they did a week ago. Also keep in mind both were facing top 10 defenses from a year ago (Jacksonville & Carolina) so the struggles weren’t completely surprising. We expect the Giants to have a much better offense this year despite what happened last week. They have shored up their offensive line and they have added more weapons including RB Saquon Barkley. They also have WR Odell Beckham back at full strength and with him in the line-up last year they averaged 23 PPG compared to 13 PPG when he was not available. Dallas didn’t look as good offensively as the Giants but they have potential with one of the top RB’s in the league along with a solid QB in Dak Prescott. We’re pretty sure both teams stressed offensive performance and finishing drives in practice this week so expect a better performance from each. If this total stays at 42 or less, it will be the lowest total set on this rivalry since 2005. They’ve simply adjusted this one too much and we take the OVER. |
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09-16-18 | Raiders v. Broncos UNDER 45.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points - Oakland @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Denver put up 27 points last week on Seattle which may look impressive but the Seahawks defense is nowhere near what it used to be. We anticipate Seattle’s defense, who lost 5 former pro-bowlers off last year’s defense alone, to be in the lower third of the league. We took advantage of that last week using the OVER in Seattle – Denver and cashed in. That was set at 42 and this week it’s 45 or 45.5 in this game. Despite giving up 33 points last week to the Rams, the Oakland defense was fairly impressive in our minds. They held one of, if not the best, offense to just 98 yards and 10 points in the first half. For the game the Rams only had 365 yards and 26 points if you take away the late pick 6 LA had. So not bad at all for the Raider defense. Denver’s defense was solid last week allowing Seattle only 306 total yards. The Broncos were the top total defense in the NFL last year allowing 290 YPG and we expect them to be near the top again this year. Neither of these offenses is overly dynamic and both teams know each other very well being a division match up. 5 of the last 6 in this series have gone UNDER the total and Oakland had now gone UNDER in 8 straight games dating back to last year. We anticipate a defensive grinder here and we’re on the UNDER. |
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09-15-18 | Washington -4.5 v. Utah | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205 |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos OVER 42 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - Seattle @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Seahawks were long known as one of the top defenses on the NFL and they look like they are still living off those laurels as this total is set too low. Seattle has lost a ton of defensive talent over the last few years including 5 former pro bowlers off last year’s team alone (Chancellor, Sherman, Avril, Bennett, and Richardson). Last year they finished outside the top 10 in total defense for the first time since 2010 and we look for a further drop this year minus those players. We project the Seattle defense to finish in the bottom half of the league this season. The Denver defense also fell off drastically last year after allowing 18 PPG in 2016 the allowed 24 PPG a year ago. So both defenses a bit overrated entering the season in our minds. Offensively Denver should improve greatly with new QB Case Keenum who is a big upgrade over the Bronco QB’s last year (Siemian, Osweiler, and Lynch). He has some very good weapons at wideout and TE so we look for an improvement on last year’s 21 PPG. Seattle averaged 23 PPG last year and with Russell Wilson at QB they are always a threat to put up big numbers. They scored over 20 points in 10 of their 16 games last year and we have a feeling with their defense taking a big step back Seattle will have to be aggressive offensive to try and outscore people this year. |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | Top | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout. |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393 |
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09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 47 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER the total – Michigan @ Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET We expect both defenses to dominate this game. Michigan had one of the best defenses in the nation last year allowing their opponents just 271 YPG (3rd nationally). The Wolverines held 9 of their 13 opponents last year to 20 points or less. They return nearly everyone on defense including 9 starters and 17 of their top 20 tacklers. Our word from Ann Arbor is their defensive line has been absolutely dominant in practice and we expect them to be the best unit on the field on Saturday. They’ll be facing a Notre Dame offense that likes to run and simply isn’t very good at throwing the football. Irish starting QB Wimbush struggle with accuracy last year hitting under 50% of his pass attempts and those struggles have continued in practice this year per our reports. Notre Dame also had to replace 3 of their 5 starting offensively lineman so they’ll have big problems with this Michigan defense. Offensively, Michigan likes to run the ball more often than not as well. They are breaking in a new QB in Shea Patterson who had some success at Ole Miss but is still learning the ropes with his new offense. Patterson will now be without one of his top wideouts as starter Tarik Black injured his foot and won’t be playing in this game. Expect Harbaugh to be conservative with his offense and lean heavily on his defense in this game. We like the Irish defense, with 9 starters back, much better than their offense going into the season. They also held 9 of their 13 opponents to 20 points or less last season and return 9 of their top 11 tacklers. We envision this being a field position, defensive type battle and UNDER is the play. |
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08-26-18 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 10 | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET |
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08-23-18 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET |
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08-19-18 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER - Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET |
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08-16-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET |
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08-12-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET |
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08-09-18 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-05-18 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET |
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07-28-18 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET |
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07-25-18 | A's v. Rangers OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET |
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07-21-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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07-15-18 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET |
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07-11-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 2-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET |
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07-08-18 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET |
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07-05-18 | Braves +100 v. Brewers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Atlanta Braves Money Line (-) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET |
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06-30-18 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET |
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06-28-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -122 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET |
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06-24-18 | Blue Jays v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET |
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06-20-18 | Red Sox -137 v. Twins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET |
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06-17-18 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET |
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06-12-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them. It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*. BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game. The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points. |
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06-06-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:10 ET |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 215, Cleveland @ Golden State, Sunday at 8 PM ET We cashed with the OVER in game 1 of this series but it took overtime to get there. After watching game 1, tonight we’re siding with the UNDER. The two teams combined to shoot a very solid 47% in game 1 yet the game had to go to OT to cash the OVER. LeBron is playing exceptionally well but can we expect him to get to 50+ again and miss only 13 of 32 shots again tonight? The odds on that happening are not very good. Even with his fantastic effort and 51 points, again, if it doesn’t go to OT it stays UNDER. As good as Golden State can be offensively, it’s actually been their defense that has carried them in these playoffs. They held Houston, one of the top scoring offenses in the NBA, to 92, 94, 86, and 92 points the final four games of the Western Conference Finals. In their 18 playoff games, the Warriors have allowed more than 106 points just 3 times (in regulation). 11 of those 18 have gone UNDER the total. Steve Kerr was not happy with the way this team played defense in game 1 and you can bet that was stressed heading into this match up. Expect GS to play very well on the defensive end tonight. Cleveland’s defense was poor during the regular season but they’ve actually played quite well on that end of the court in the post season. Their final 3 games vs Boston heading into the NBA Finals they limited the Celtics to 96, 99, and 79 points. They’ve limited their opponents to 110 points or fewer in 18 of their 19 playoff games (in regulation). We look for Cleveland to try and slow this pace tonight which gives them the best chance of pulling off the upset. Both defenses will play better tonight and we like the UNDER in this game. |
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06-02-18 | Reds v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
We will play on 10-Star OVER 215 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Thursday, May 31st – Cleveland looked better defensively in the Eastern Conference Playoffs but the fact of the matter is they played two average offenses in the Pacers and Celtics. Now they face one of the best offensive units in the NBA which averaged 1.137 point per possession in the regular season, 3rd best in the NBA. The Warriors have averaged 109PPG in the post season and that came against three top 14 defensive efficiency units, two of which, Houston and San Antonio, were top 6. Now Golden State goes up against a Cavs D that was 29th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.120PPP. Cleveland had some lower scoring games against the Pacers and Celtics but those are two of the 8 slowest paced teams in the NBA. Against a similar team to the Warriors, Toronto, the Cavs allowed 112, 110, 103 and 93 points with three of the four games ending with 221 or more total points. After a couple low scoring grinders against the Rockets we expect the Warriors offense to explode tonight in Game 1. Golden State home games averaged 217 total points this season while Cleveland road contests averaged 216PPG. Based on league averages, pace of play, eFG percentages, etc…etc…this game should end with 220 or more points. The Warriors have scored 116 or more points against the Cavs in 6 of the last eight meetings. The bet here is OVER the total. |
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05-30-18 | Capitals +136 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 136 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Capitals Money Line (+) @ Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics -125 | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (ML) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The home team has clearly had the big advantage in this series and have been the better team in every game. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-25 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-19 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 10-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes three wins over this same Cavs team by 25, 13 and 13 points respectively. As far as home teams in elimination games in the NBA, going back to 2005, the home team has won over 70% of the time. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. Cleveland has shot under 42% in two of the three games in Boston which is understandable considering the Celtics had the 2nd best shooting percentage D in the NBA this season. Boston was also one of the best in the league when it came to defensive efficiency ratings. The public is all over LeBron and the Cavs which makes sense but the money is all over Boston. Even though LBJ will get every call to man in this game we like the resolve of the young Celtics and expect a win by the home team. |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212 | Top | 86-115 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 212.5 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, Game 6, 9PM ET - With the number creeping this low here we have to step in with a VALUE Over bet on Game 6. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. In Games 4 & 5 these two teams shot horribly and the games ended with just 187 and 192 Total points. The big difference for this game could be injuries as the Warriors could get Andre Iguodala back for this game and the plus/minus differential with him on the floor for GST is drastic. Houston will more than likely be without Chris Paul for this game which isn’t as big a deal offensively but is defensively. Paul has been outstanding defensively in this series. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the eight meetings this season. The value on this number is too good to ignore. In Game 4 at home these two teams had a total of 224. The Warriors have had 14 home games this season where Vegas posted a Total of 215 or lower on them and in nine of those the Warriors had a key player out. Don’t forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year was 212PPG and this game features the two best offenses in the league. BET OVER! |
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05-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here. |
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05-23-18 | Angels -114 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Angels money line (-) over Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7 PM ET |
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05-22-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 223.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 224 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - With the number creeping a little lower here we'll step in with an Over bet on Game 4. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. Expect the Rockets to get back to somewhere in the 46% or 51% they shot in the first two games of the series which is much closer to their season average of 46%. The Rockets attempted nearly 42 three's per game in the regular season and will get their attempts up here in this do-or-die situation. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the six meetings this season. Expect more of the same tonight. BET OVER! |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday. |
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05-21-18 | Lightning +114 v. Capitals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals, Monday at 8:05 PM ET |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points. |
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05-17-18 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7 less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers. Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss. |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 203.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 203.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics, Tuesday 8:30PM ET Game 2 - First off I want to start by saying this: I am not, nor ever been a conspiracy theory guy when it comes to NBA games, but tonight I'm fairly certain LeBron is going to get a ton of calls in his favor. I expect James to make a concentrated effort to get to the hole in Game 2 and he'll be rewarded with calls that he didn't get in Game 1. In the opener the Cavs defense was exactly what we expected it to be but we didn't see their offense struggling to top 20 points in three of the four quarters. The Cavs shot just 36% as a team and were just 4 of 26 from beyond the arc (15.4%). That's significantly lower than their season averages of 36.8% overall on 32 attempts per game which are both top 8 in the NBA. Cleveland put up just 83 points in the opener but had they shot their season averages they would have scored 24 more points from beyond the 3-point line alone. That's enough points to push this game Over the total. When the Cavs played on the road this year those games averaged 219PPG. When Boston was at home those contests averaged 205PPG. We see Boston putting up great offensive numbers again tonight as the Cavs defense (29th in DEFF) hasn't changed. Don't forget the average field goal attempts per game in the NBA this season was 172 and the average points scored was just under 213PPG. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 170 FG attempts so the pace of play was there, but the Cavs just couldn't make shots. That changes tonight and while I won't bet a bad line tonight and trust Cleveland, I will invest in the OVER. |
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05-15-18 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -110 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (Moneyline bet) -110 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - Tough to go against the Champs in any setting, especially considering they are not underdogs very often, but we'll make an exception tonight in Game 1. We've made a prediction at the start of the Playoffs that Houston would win it all this year and for them to do that they must win Game 1 at home. The Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best home defensive efficiency numbers. The addition of Chris Paul gives them a another super-star caliber player that can take over a game if James Harden struggles as he did a year ago in big playoff moments. Capela has been a defensive force in the playoffs and Eric Gordon scored 20PPG during the regular season versus the Warriors. Yes, the Warriors are loaded and have incredible road numbers and the Hamptons 5 lineup but this is the one spot to fade them. Houston is 25-2 SU their last 27 at home while Golden State is just 10-11 SU their last 21 on the road, 2-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 1 at home! |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1. |
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05-12-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets -149 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Money Line (-) vs Vegas Golden Knights, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET |
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05-11-18 | Twins v. Angels OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 10 PM ET |