Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-09-23 | Cardinals v. White Sox -125 | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giolito (6-5, 3.50 ERA) is pitching effectively as he gets set to face the St. Louis Cardinals, and with a contract that expires after the season, he could be attractive trade bait as the White Sox sink in the American League Central standings. St. Louis will start an enigma of its own in left-hander Steven Matz (0-7, 5.02). Sent to the bullpen in late May after season-opening struggles in the starting rotation, Matz takes the rotation spot of Adam Wainwright (shoulder), who recently landed on the injured list. While Matz stumbled Wednesday in Miami, allowing two runs and three hits in 2 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 1.98 ERA over his first seven relief appearances, and he hasn't surrendered a home run since May 24. Overall, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Additionally, he has a 7.14 ERA on the road |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kansas City Royals continue to struggle. They have lost five games in a row entering Saturday including losses in the opening two games of this series. Royals' starter Ryan Yarbrough is seeing his first action since May. The veteran has not been able to find a groove as seen in his 6.15 ERA. The Cleveland Guardians have won two of their last three series. Guardians’ starter Shane Bieber should dominate in this one. He just registered six shutout innings against the Royals in late June and has silenced the rivals throughout his career, posting a dazzling 2.80 ERA and an undefeated 6-0 record. Beiber is sporting a 3.02 ERA at home. |
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07-09-23 | Braves +103 v. Rays | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves and Rays play the final game of their 3-game series on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta has won the first 2 games and has the best record in the majors going into the All-Star break. The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have won 12 of their last 13 games. Tampa Bay started the season hot but has fallen off and is 0-7 in the last 7 games. The Rays will try to get a win by bringing out Zach Eflin. He has a 3.24 ERA through 16 starts with a 9-4 record. He is a strikeout pitcher who has a 26.1 K percentage, and only a 3.9 BB percentage, which is in the top 3% in the league. He will be opposed by Bryce Elder for the Braves, who has an incredible 2.45 ERA through 17 starts with a 7-1 record. The Braves are 6-2 as an underdog this year. Atlanta is the hottest team in baseball, so it is very hard to bet against them. They are 12-1 in their last 13, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-2 in their last 7 against Tampa Bay. |
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07-09-23 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Red Sox have clicked on all cylinders over their first two games against the Oakland Athletics this weekend. Entering today's series and unofficial first-half finale, Boston has won four straight games and seven out of eight, while scoring 27 runs in just the last three games. The Red Sox have put together seven consecutive games with at least 10 hits after pounding out 15 in Saturday's 10-3 triumph. Cora is expected to use Tayler Scott (0-0, 7.71 ERA) as an opener less than a week after his Red Sox debut. He was acquired from the Dodgers in a trade late last month. While with the Seattle Mariners in 2019, Scott made one relief appearance against the Athletics, surrendering two unearned runs over two innings. Left-hander JP Sears (1-6, 4.09) is scheduled to make his team-leading 18th start for the Athletics, making him their only pitcher to remain in the rotation all season. |
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07-08-23 | Braves -141 v. Rays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is going with All-Star Spencer Strider (10-2, 3.66 ERA), who leads the majors with 155 strikeouts. Tampa Bay is turning to rookie Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27), who has 76 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. Neither starter has yet to face the opposition. Strider is one of a franchise-high eight players to be selected to the All-Star Game. The 24-year-old has won each of his past four starts, fanning 34 in 24 2/3 innings in that span. He gave up three runs (two earned) with nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins on Sunday. For the Rays, Bradley has been going through some growing pains. He surrendered one run on three hits in six innings of a 7-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on June 21. But in his past two starts, the 22-year-old rookie has struggled. Bradley allowed seven earned runs in four innings in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 27, and five runs in 3 1/3 innings in a no-decision at the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. |
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07-08-23 | Rangers -168 v. Nationals | 3-8 | Loss | -168 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Texas Rangers took the series opener over the Washington Nationals in a comfortable 7-2 win last night, extending the Nationals losing streak to 5 games. Considering Washington has lost 7 straight home games with Jake Irvin starting on the mound, no way that this streak to end today. Irvin is below-average in several categories with a 1.45 WHIP and 5.15 ERA at home this year. He posts a low strikeout rate (6.71 K/9) and high walk rate (4.36 BB/9). If Irvin has a short outing, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in the MLB with a 4.67 ERA. Against the #1 scoring offense in the league, that’s a recipe for disaster. Washington has lost 15 of 16 at Nationals Park since June 3. The Nationals, who are in last place in the National League East, are an NL-worst 13-32 at home. Texas, which is in first in the American League West, is 25-19 on the road this season. |
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07-08-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Toronto Blue Jays appear to be heating up as the All-Star break approaches. They have won four straight heading into their road game against Detroit this afternoon. Toronto right-hander Kevin Gausman will start the second game of the series. Gausman (7-4, 3.04 ERA) leads the American League with 146 strikeouts and has only given up nine home runs in 18 starts. He has posted 13 quality starts, most recently on June 27 when he held San Francisco to one run and three hits while striking out 12 in six innings. In his last outing, Gausman gave up two runs and five hits while notching seven strikeouts against Boston. However, he labored at times, requiring 98 pitches to get through five innings. Gausman, who is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 career starts against Detroit, will be making his last start prior to the All-Star Game. The Tigers will turn to Matt Manning, who is making only his fifth start of the season, and only his third start since spending some 2 months on the IL. He gave up 4 runs to the Blue Jays in April, and Manning has been below average in general so far in his career. Toronto has the far superior bullpen (at least in the back end), and we saw what happened on Friday when the Tigers’ bullpen got involved. |
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07-08-23 | Orioles v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both pitchers have been solid all season. Gray hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this year. With a 2.50 ERA and 2.84 FIP, Gray posted 0 earned runs and 2 hits allowed in a start against this same Orioles lineup just 6 days ago. Wells is one of only two pitchers in the league with a sub-1 WHIP (0.90). While that is certainly impressive, his consistency might be even more stunning. Wells has gone 6 consecutive starts giving up exactly 2 earned runs. Furthermore, both pitchers have a solid strikeout rate with Wells at 9.03 K/9 and Gray at 9.22 K/9. As long as these pitchers continue their long string of consistent quality starts, the under will be the play. Consider as well, that the under is 10-4 in Twins last 14 overall. |
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07-07-23 | Mets v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There's not much about the Padres' pitching staff that needs to change. The team is sixth in ERA this season. They have a reliever group that's sixth in ERA, 10th in left-on-base percentage, and third in groundball rate. San Diego's rotation has mostly been solid too, although that doesn't apply to Yu Darvish lately. Over his past five starts, the veteran has coughed up 21 runs in 26.0 innings, good for a 7.27 ERA. In four of those five starts, he was responsible for at least four runs. The Mets tagged him for five runs earlier this season, a game that the Padres lost. Consider that the over is 20-7-1 in Mets last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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07-07-23 | Reds +110 v. Brewers | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cincinnati starter, Andrew Abbott dominated the Milwaukee Brewers last month in his major league debut for the Cincinnati Reds. He hasn't cooled off since. Tonight, Abbott will look to help the Reds post a sixth straight win and pad their National League Central lead over the second-place Brewers in Milwaukee. The 24-year-old Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) has been a marvel while allowing five runs, including four on four homers, 20 hits and striking out 42 over 37 1/3 innings in six starts since debuting June 5. The left-hander set personal bests with 7 2/3 innings and 12 strikeouts while giving up a solo homer and three other hits during Sunday's 4-3 win over San Diego. Cincinnati is 6-0 in games pitched by Abbott, who has the second-lowest ERA among any Reds pitcher through his first six career starts. Tom Browning had an 0.95 ERA spanning the 1984 and 1985 seasons. The Brewers have been terrible against southpaws this season (.209/.304/.311 against lefty starters and .223/.304/.357 overall), too. They are favored here by virtue of Corbin Burnes, the 2021 Cy Young winner, being on the mound, but he has a 4.00 ERA and 4.22 FIP this season. |
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07-07-23 | Braves +105 v. Rays | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves come in at 25-5 in their last 30 games while scoring nearly seven runs per game in that span. They are first in home runs per game, second in runs scored, eighth in fewest strikeouts per game, and seventh in steals. Simply put, the Braves put the ball in play, they drive the ball when they do, and they can kill you with speed also. Braves' starter Morton is 3-0 in his last three starts and has seen his K/9 rate rise over 11 in that span. Morton struggled through 2022 mainly due to his inability to get swings and misses. This season, he has raised his K/9 rate back up to elite levels and the results have shown in wins and his ERA. The Rays come in looking extremely vulnerable for the first time all season. They've lost five games in a row, are 4-7 in their last eleven games, and are hitting just .228 in that time. |
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07-07-23 | Phillies -121 v. Marlins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies, who have won a dozen straight road games, will visit the Miami Marlins today to start a weekend series. Philadelphia's road winning streak - which includes a 3-1 win over host Tampa Bay on Thursday -- is tied for the second-longest in franchise history, trailing only a 13-game run in 1976. Today, Miami will start reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.93 ERA). The right-hander is 6-8 with a 3.79 ERA in 17 career starts against the Phillies. Alcantara has struggled all year in his encore to his Cy Young performance, posting ERAs of 5.04 in April, 4.85 in May, 4.59 in June and 7.20 so far in July. Philadelphia will start right-hander Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.03 ERA). Wheeler, who finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in 2021, has been dominant in his career against the Marlins, going 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 20 starts. |
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07-07-23 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On the mound for the Marlins will be reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has been a near opposite of who he was last year, as he currently has a 3-7 record with a 4.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His percentiles are nothing impressive either being that he ranks in the lower end for most. He is currently in the 23rd percentile for xBA, 28th percentile for K%, 46th percentile for average exit velocity and 39th percentile for hard-hit rate. The total for this game is set at 7.5. Alcantara has had 17 starts this season; 12 of them have cleared this total. Additionally, consider that the over is 13-6-1 in Marlins last 20 vs. National League East. |
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07-06-23 | Phillies +120 v. Rays | 3-1 | Win | 120 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies have won 11 straight road games, and they have extended the Rays' losing streak to a season-high four games. The Rays have been the most dominant team in the American League, but they have leveled off of late, dropping six of their last 10. Rays will go with right-hander Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 1.15 ERA) as an opener. He is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in four career appearances vs. Philadelphia, all in relief. The Phillies will start left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 3.26). In his latest start, a 2-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals on Friday, the 26-year-old gave up two runs, one earned, in six innings. Sanchez has done a good job on the mound for the Phillies, giving up eight runs in four starts. He didn’t give up a run in his only road start of the season and Philadelphia’s bullpen is playing well in recent games. |
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07-06-23 | Phillies v. Rays OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia is averaging 4.52 runs per game. Their .259 batting average is ninth in the league. Their .323 on base percentage is 14th, while their .421 slugging percentage is ninth. Nick Castellanos leads the Phillies with a .312 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 22 home runs, while Alec Bohm leads the team with 55 RBI. Tampa Bay is averaging 5.56 runs per game. Their .262 batting average is fourth in the league. Their .334 on base percentage is also fourth, while their .459 slugging percentage is third. Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with a .313 batting average, while Randy Arozarena leads the team with 16 home runs and 58 RBI. Consider at the over is 19-7-5 in Phillies last 31 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. |
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07-06-23 | Blue Jays -120 v. White Sox | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto will aim to stay perfect against Chicago this season while Guerrero, the Jays' All-Star first baseman, tries to stay hot. He keyed Tuesday's 4-3 win in the season opener with a go-ahead, two-run home run to the opposite field in the eighth inning. Toronto has outscored Chicago 24-5 while winning each of the first four meetings between the teams. White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn, who was slated to oppose fellow righty Jose Berrios on Wednesday night, instead will face him in the opener of today's twin bill. Lynn (5-8, 6.47 ERA) will try to avoid a second loss to the Blue Jays this season. He took the loss in an April 24 game at Rogers Centre in Toronto, spacing four runs and five hits in five innings with three walks and four strikeouts. In 11 career appearances against Toronto, including 10 starts, Lynn is 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA. Berrios (8-6, 3.74) defeated Chicago the day after his teammates roughed up Lynn. Berrios pitched seven shutout innings on April 25 while allowing four hits with one walk and nine strikeouts. Berrios is 13-6 with a 3.26 ERA in 23 career starts against Chicago, with 145 strikeouts in 140 2/3 innings. Additionally, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA during the day. Lynn is 2-4 with a 7.22 ERA at home. |
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07-06-23 | A's v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A’s are starting Hogan Harris, who has made several starts this season. Harris has a 5.16 ERA, and he has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts. For the Tigers, Michael Lorenzen will take the mound. The Tigers have lost his last 6 starts and Lorenzen has given up 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 outings. The Tigers tend to leave him out there, though, and I think that should lead to some runs. Even with bad offenses leading the charge, both starting pitchers are vulnerable. Neither bullpen is good, either, and Oakland specifically has the worst bullpen in baseball. There should be plenty of opportunity for runs in this one. Consider that the over is 20-8 in Tigers last 28 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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07-06-23 | Reds +112 v. Nationals | 5-4 | Win | 112 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cincinnati is 13-1 over its past 14 road games, while the Nationals are 1-13 in their past 14 home games. This afternoon, rookie Brandon Williamson (1-2, 5.56 ERA) will make his 10th major league start for the Reds. The left-hander was solid his last time out, allowing two runs on three hits in five innings during a loss to the San Diego Padres on Saturday. He struck out five and walked one while throwing 86 pitches. Washington will counter with left-hander MacKenzie Gore (4-7, 4.48 ERA), who will be looking to rebound from his worst outing of the season. Gore, who revealed that he was dealing with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand, allowed seven runs on six hits and three walks, lasting just 2 2/3 innings in what ended up as a 19-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. De La Cruz, Steer, India, Matt McLain and others have jumpstarted this run by the Reds and they find themselves poised to be a buyer at the trade deadline, likely kicking the tires on some starting pitching. |
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07-05-23 | Braves -158 v. Guardians | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta can do no wrong right now, with excellent pitching, hitting, defense, and complimentary baseball when one of those things falters. Mike Soroka hasn't been sharp on the mound, but the Braves offense should tee off on Cal Quantrill, who has been worse with a larger sample size. These bullpens can match up, eliminating an edge Cleveland has over almost everyone. In a slugfest, the Braves beat Cleveland 95% of the time this year. That's what should tonight. |
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07-05-23 | Rockies v. Astros -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies are hoping to turn their season around but the Astros look to make a push in the division and control this game at home. The Astros should drive in runs at will with Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, and the rest of the lineup making hard contact and powering the ball against the Rockies pitchers to easily circle the bases. The Astros should limit a Rockies lineup that averages only 4.42 runs per game with J.P. France building off a scoreless outing and delivering multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead. The Astros should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win at home. |
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07-04-23 | Mariners -108 v. Giants | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In today's rematch, Seattle will hand the ball to Logan Gilbert (5-5, 4.19 ERA) with an eye on the break-even mark. The 26-year-old right-hander is coming off a 4-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, charged with all four runs in six innings. However, Gilbert is 4-1 on the road this season with a solid WHIP and a K/9 rate of over nine per contest. San Francisco plans a holiday parade of relievers on a bullpen day. Keaton Winn (0-1, 3.50 ERA) likely will serve as the opener. Yastrzemski's left-handed bat will be missed against the hard-throwing Gilbert in this spot. In addition, the Giants have four starters all questionable for this matchup with the most significant being Estrada and Conforto. |
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07-04-23 | Phillies v. Rays -107 | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia has not played well on astroturf, losing each of their last seven on that surface and struggles against interleague opponents that have a winning record, losing 42 of the last 62 in that situation. Tampa Bay has won each of the last five games versus Philadelphia played at home and the Rays have won each of the last seven overall against the Phillies. Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola has been hit hard in three of the last four starts, allowing a grand total of 14 runs in 24 innings, giving up four runs or more in three of the four starts. Tampa Bay starting pitcher Zach Eflin has had three consecutive solid outings allowing seven runs in 19 innings with Tampa Bay winning two of the three. Tampa Bay combines the 5th best ERA, with the third-best team batting average. The Rays have scored the second most runs. |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have been miserable on the road this season with a record of just 13-29. Freeland has been a part of those struggles with an ERA over five away from Coors Field. Freeland is winless over his past eight starts, with an 0-4 record, a 7.15 ERA and a .932 opponents' OPS. He has allowed seven home runs over 39 innings during that span. The Astros have rebounded from a rough stretch playing without MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez to win seven of ten games leading into this series. The Astros are hitting .270 as a team over the past ten games with 37 extra-base hits including 15 home runs. While France has struggled at home this season, he has the good fortune of battling a Rockies team that averages just 3.74 runs on the road this season. Additionally, France was solid in his last two home starts, allowing a total of three runs in 13.2 innings of work. |
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07-04-23 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 7-6 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hendricks struggled in his first start in May after returning from a tear in his shoulder. After his first game back, Hendricks has been money ever since. He’s allowed only 6 runs in his last 26.1 IP, helping him earn his outstanding 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Despite the fact that it’s a small sample size, Hendricks has been even better on the road. He holds a 1.77 ERA on the road with opposing batters hitting just .114 against him. Milwaukee starter, Miley’s numbers are relatively similar. With a 3.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, Miley has been cooking, allowing just 2 earned runs in his last 15.0 IP. Both teams are bottom half of the league in batting average, with the Brewers coming in at 29th, above only the A’s. Consider that the under is 38-17-3 in Cubs last 58 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. |
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07-04-23 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds are dealing with injuries to Ben Lively and Hunter Greene and Brett Kennedy has been recalled from the minor leagues to either start or pitch bulk innings. Kennedy has not pitched in the MLB since the 2018 season as a member of the Padres. Kennedy issued a poor 6.75 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in 26 innings in his lone MLB season. The bullpen has been mediocre, reporting a 4.07 ERA on the season. Washington starter Corbin's numbers aren't strong, recording a 4.84 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP accompanied by a 5-9 record in 96.2 innings pitched on the season. Consider that the over is 16-5 in Reds last 21 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. |
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07-03-23 | Mariners v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The current Mariners are 7-for-38 with four extra-base hits, a home run, and six RBI against Logan Webb, who holds a shiny 2.31 ERA at Oracle Park in 2023. But Webb has allowed seven runs (six earned) over his last two home starts (14 IP; 1-1 record), and the Mariners are hitting the right-handers well in the last two weeks, posting a 123 wRC+ and .807 OPS across 273 plate appearances. The Mariners’ bullpen had a bad June, posting a 5.38 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 4.0 K/9, and 1.5 HR/9 (4.94 FIP). In the last ten days, Seattle’s relief pitching has amassed a hideous 7.97 ERA, 5.25 FIP, and .373 opposing BABIP across 20.1 innings of work. Consider that the over is 37-18 in Mariners last 55 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. |
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07-03-23 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 9 | 4-8 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins will give the ball to their ace, Joe Ryan, on Monday night against the Royals. Ryan is 8-5 in 16 starts this season including 11 quality starts. He has allowed 79 hits in 96.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 3.44. Ryan's K/9 rate is a solid 9.8 and his WHIP is 0.97. At home, Ryan is 5-2 in seven starts including four quality starts. He has allowed just 32 hits in 46.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.70. His K/9 rate stays steady at 9.8 and his WHIP lowers to a sparkling 0.79. Ryan is 1-0 against the Royals this season after going six innings and allowing three hits and one run back in April. Minnesota took two of three from the host Baltimore Orioles in a series in which it allowed just three runs. However, The Twins scored just two total runs over the last two games. Consider that the under is 21-8-3 in Twins last 32 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. |
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07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves will try to run their winning streak to nine games when they open a three-game series at the Cleveland Guardians tonight. Atlanta also has won 16 of its past 17 games and 23 of 26 to take a nine-game lead in the National League East. Atlanta will put its winning streak in the hands of right-hander Bryce Elder (6-1, 2.44 ERA), who enters the series opener with the second-lowest ERA in the majors. Elder is 2-0 in his past three starts with a 1.42 ERA. Atlanta's offense is one of the best in baseball and their experience will allow them to take advantage of the youthfulness on the other side. Additionally, the Guardians are 1-6 in their last seven games against NL East opponents. |
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07-03-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins -126 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St Louis has struggled against teams with a winning record, losing 11 of the last 14 and the Cardinals have lost five of the last six on the road against a team with a winning record. Miami has won 14 of its last 12 at home against the team with a losing record and overall at home, Miami has won 10 of its last 13. St Louis starting pitcher Miles Mikolas has been hit hard in each of the last four starts allowing 30 hits and 18 runs in only 24 ⅔ innings with St Louis losing each of those four games. In contrast, Miami starting pitcher Braxton Garrett has had four consecutive strong outings allowing three runs in 23 ⅓ innings with Miami winning each of the four games. Miami has won 8 of Garrett's last nine starts. |
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07-03-23 | Reds -121 v. Nationals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington will start rookie Jake Irvin (1-4, 4.72 ERA) in the opener. Since having his turn skipped in the rotation, Irvin is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a no-decision at Seattle in his last outing. Cincinnati, meanwhile, looks to continue an unlikely winning streak. Luke Weaver (1-2, 6.96) will get the nod for the Reds, who have won six straight Weaver starts. The right-hander has been very inconsistent over that span -- allowing seven runs once and five twice -- but each time the Reds have done enough to come out on top. Weaver hasn't picked up any of those wins, as his last decision -- a win -- came on May 9 when he beat the New York Mets.The Reds have won four of their last five, including a series-clinching 4-3 victory over the San Diego Padres on Sunday. |
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07-02-23 | Tigers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 14-9 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have been interesting to say the least, alternating wins and losses to close out June. The wins saw the offense put up impressive numbers, while the losses were ugly in almost every way. As a team with middling run production despite a generous home field, that makes sense. Colorado does not command the strike zone, with poor strikeout and walk rates. They don't hit homers or swipe bases either. When a team relies on stringing together hits, they become prone to inconsistent production. Pitching in Coors isn't fun for anyone, including the home team. Connor Seabold actually fares better at home this season, and he can showcase why in this game, even if a 5.24 home ERA isn't a ringing endorsement. Neither is the team's 1-6 record spanning Seabold's last seven starts. Regardless, he gets to face a weak offense, which can get him back on track. Consider that the under is 42-20-3 in Rockies last 65 interleague games. |
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07-02-23 | Yankees -110 v. Cardinals | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. Louis starter, Montgomery has done a good job on the mound in recent weeks but hasn’t been as sharp at home where he gave up five runs in his last two starts. The Yankees will counter Sunday with ace Gerrit Cole, who originally was slated to start Saturday. Yankees manager Aaron Boone pushed Cole's start back after Friday's game was rained out. Cole (8-1, 2.78 ERA) will look to rebound from his shortest outing of the season. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cardinals. |
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07-02-23 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta captured the first two games of the series, 16-4 on Friday and 7-0 on Saturday. The Braves have won seven straight games and 15 of their last 16. Atlanta has won eight of nine games against the Marlins, who they now lead by eight games in the NL East. Alcantara (3-6, 4.82 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Spencer Strider (9-2, 3.73), the major league strikeout leader who is trying to become the fifth pitcher to reach double-digit wins. Braves Strider comes in with a strikeout rate of over 15 at home this season and a WHIP under one. He will be backed up by the most dominant offense in baseball in June, with the Braves hitting over .300 as a team in June and belting 61 home runs. |
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07-02-23 | Twins -110 v. Orioles | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twins right-hander Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.67 ERA) looks to continue the stinginess evidenced by Minnesota starters in the series thus far. Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober combined to limit the Orioles to one run and five hits over 13 innings in the first two games. The Orioles have lost four straight and 16 of their last 31 and will try to avoid being swept for the first time this season today. It might not be so easy for Baltimore to get back on track, though. Gray has the fourth-best ERA in the American League and has allowed no more than three runs in each of his 16 starts this season, though the Twins have only managed an 8-8 record in those contests. Last time out, Gray allowed three runs on seven hits over 6 2/3 innings of a loss to the Atlanta Braves. He struck out five and walked one. Gray is 6-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 12 career starts versus Baltimore. Left-hander Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.18) gets the nod for the Orioles. Irvin will be making his seventh start and ninth appearance of the season on Sunday. He is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA in his past four appearances. |
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07-02-23 | Twins v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units So far this weekend, the Baltimore Orioles’ offense has vanished. As the O’s and Twins finish up a series on Sunday, the Twins have won the first two games and are sending one of their best pitchers to the mound. The Orioles have amassed a total of only 7 hits through the first two games in the series, and 1 total run. Either you bank on their struggles continuing, or you bet on the bounce-back positive regression game. Consider that the under is 11-5-1 in Orioles last 17 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. |
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07-01-23 | Guardians v. Cubs OVER 8 | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians are playing well at the moment and they’ve won seven of their last ten games. They are currently tied with Minnesota in the AL Central standings and will try to increase their division lead with a win over the Cubs, which will give them their eighth win in their last 11 games. Cleveland is averaging 4.01 runs per game. Their .249 batting average is 16th in the league. Their .314 on base percentage is 22nd, while their .376 slugging percentage is 26th. Chicago is averaging 4.54 runs per game. Their .247 batting average is 17th in the league. Their .327 on base percentage is 10th, while their .399 slugging percentage is 17th. Consider that the over is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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07-01-23 | White Sox -1.5 v. A's | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.04 ERA) is scheduled to start for the White Sox today. Cease made five consecutive solid starts in June but emerged with five straight no-decisions. He wound up with a 2.20 ERA, 42 strikeouts and 10 walks in 28 2/3 innings last month. He did not allow more than two runs in any outing, all of which wound up in being one-run games, with Chicago winning three of them. The fifth-year major-leaguer has dominated the A's in three career meetings, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 18 innings. The 27-year-old's only previous start in Oakland saw him throw six shutout innings, allowing three hits, in a 4-1 win last July. Oakland is flat-out the worst team in the league and is playing the part again following their June hot streak. |
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07-01-23 | Twins v. Orioles -133 | 1-0 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore starter, Bradish (4-3, 3.75 ERA) is aiming to win a third consecutive start. The right-hander is 2-1 with 2.37 ERA over his past three starts, striking out 16 and walking four in 19 innings. On Sunday, he held the Seattle Mariners to two runs on two hits over seven innings. He struck out seven and walked two while throwing a season-high 103 pitches. Bradish retired 13 of the last 14 batters he faced in a 3-2 win. Minnesota will start Bailey Ober (4-4, 2.97 ERA) on Saturday. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 3.89 ERA over his past seven starts, with 38 strikeouts and eight walks in 39 1/3 innings. In his latest outing, Ober allowed three runs on five hits over six innings of a no-decision against the Detroit Tigers on Sunday. Minnesota is just 18-23 on the road while the Orioles are nine games over .500. |
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07-01-23 | Astros +123 v. Rangers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas starter, Eovaldi (9-3, 2.82 ERA) is attempting to become just the second Texas pitcher since 2013 with double-digit wins prior to the All-Star Game. Lance Lynn accomplished the feat last in 2019, going 11-4 before the break. Eovaldi had a no-decision in his last start at the New York Yankees on Sunday, allowing two runs on four hits with two walks and five strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings. Against the Astros, Eovaldi is 2-3 with a 4.43 ERA in eight starts over his career. He earned a win in his previous start against them on Aug. 1, 2022, allowing two unearned runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings as a member of the Boston Red Sox. For the Astros, Brown (6-4, 3.62) is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the Rangers. He has dominated, allowing just two unearned runs on eight hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts over a combined 13 innings. Brown faced the Rangers earlier this season on April 15, allowing two unearned runs on five hits with one walk and five strikeouts over seven innings in an 8-2 win. |
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07-01-23 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 11.5 | 12-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michael Wacha is on the mound in this one. Wacha missed his last start due to a minor injury and is ready to go. He limited the Giants to only two runs in six innings in his previous start, resulting in another no-decision in a game the Padres lost. The veteran right-hander has been dominant, registering a minuscule 1.54 ERA this month, and is sporting a stellar 2.90 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP complemented by a 7-2 record in 80.2 innings pitched. Wacha posted six shutout innings against the Reds last month and has a stellar 2.57 ERA and a 12-3 record in 133 career innings. Consider that the under is 21-8-1 in Padres last 30 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. |
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06-30-23 | Rays -130 v. Mariners | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays are 5-1 in their last six meetings with the Mariners. They're 5-0 in their last five Friday games and 4-1 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 7-21 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.The Mariners hit poorly, even at home (.228 BA/.309 OBP/.383 SLG/.692 OPS). The Rays hit .260/.328/.439/.768 on the road and .268/.335/.478/.813 in night games. To cap it off, the Rays are 13-2 in games McClanahan has started. |
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06-30-23 | Twins v. Orioles -108 | 8-1 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has struggled to put runs on the board of late with just 11 runs in their last five games. Lopez has struggled after a strong start to the season, posting just one win in his last 10 starts entering this contest. Minnesota is just 17-23 on the road this season and stands two games below .500 on the season while dropping out of first place in the weak AL Central. Baltimore sputtered against the Reds but they are a good team at home, posting a 25-16 mark at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are good offensively, which is something that the Twins, despite their collection of talent, have failed to put together consistently. |
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06-30-23 | Giants -120 v. Mets | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Mets have struggled of late losing six of the last eight overall and when playing at home, New York has lost four of the last five. San Francisco has played very well over the last 3 weeks, winning 13 of the last 16. On the road, San Francisco has been victorious in 10 of its last 11 and during June the Giants are 7-3 over the last 10 played. New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has a 6.19 ERA and has struggled throughout the first half of the season. Carrasco has allowed four runs or more in his 10 starts this season. In his 10 starts, Carrasco has allowed 11 home runs and has issued 23 walks in a total of 48 innings pitched. The Mets have struggled on the mound as New York's team ERA is 4.59 and opposing hitters average .250 against New York pitching which is 20th. |
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06-30-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston starter, Paxton is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, two walks and 18 strikeouts over 16.1 innings of work. Paxton makes his 11th career start against the Blue Jays in this contest. He comes in 5-3 with a 4.53 ERA, a 1.329 WHIP, 26 walks and 48 strikeouts over 55.2 innings of work against them. Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA, a 1.136 WHIP, 18 walk and 28 strikeouts over 34.1 innings in six career starts at Rogers Centre. Toronto starter, Berrios is 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, four walks and 17 strikeouts over 17.2 innings of work. Berrios makes his 12th career start against the Red Sox in this contest. He is 1-5 with a 4.15 ERA, a 1.415 WHIP, 19 walks and 66 strikeouts over 65 innings of work against them. Berrios is 16-5 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.126 WHIP, 35 walks and 182 strikeouts over 183 innings in 31 career starts at Rogers Centre. Consider that the under is 10-2 in Red Sox last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. |
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06-30-23 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 11 | 5-7 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres will have Seth Lugo open the series. Lugo allowed three runs in five innings against the Nationals last time out and was hit with the loss. The veteran right-hander missed over a month due to injury but has been solid upon his return earlier this month. Lugo is sporting a 4.01 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP accompanied by a 3-4 record in 51.2 innings pitched on the season. He limited the Reds to only one run in six innings in a 7-1 win last month and has a minuscule 1.16 ERA and a 2-1 record in 23.1 career innings against the Reds. Reds starter Ashcraft produced his best performance of the season against the Padres, limiting them to one run in six innings in a game the Reds won. Consider that the under is 24-9-1 in Padres last 34 games vs. a right-handed starter. |
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06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs +107 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies are facing off against the Chicago Cubs in game 3 of their series on Thursday night. The Phillies are listing Taijuan Walker as their starting pitcher who currently has a 4.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Walker’s percentiles are quite concerning, as he ranks in the lower end for a majority. On the mound for the Cubs will be the right handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has an impressive 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. While his percentiles show that he is not exactly a big strikeout pitcher, they do show that he limits hard hit balls and keeps them in the park (1 home run allowed through 6 starts). He also doesn’t give up many free bases as he is in the 74th percentile for BB%. Hendricks has the ability to control a game and go deep into the game as well, which is something many others cannot do. |
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06-29-23 | Astros -110 v. Cardinals | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Adam Wainwright's farewell tour with the St. Louis Cardinals has not gone as hoped. He has given up a ton of hits per start, has lost the ability to put batters away, and has coughed up five home runs in his last three starts. Wainwright has been even worse at home this season, without a quality start in five starts and an ERA over seven. Houston starter France has been very consistent for the Astros with five quality starts in his nine starts overall. On the road, he's been even better with three quality starts in five this year and an ERA that dips under two and a half this season. France has done a much better job than Wainwright in keeping runners off base this season with fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. The Astros power bats should have a field day with Wainwright on the mound. |
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06-29-23 | Brewers +1.5 v. Mets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets' miserable June continued on Wednesday, when Blake Perkins laced a tiebreaking single in the sixth inning to help the Brewers to a 5-2 win. New York, which went 101-61 last season, has gone 7-17 this month to fall into 12th place in the National League. The Mets are 19th in the majors in OPS (.714) and 25th in ERA (4.59). Scherzer earned a win on Saturday when he allowed two runs over six innings as the Mets beat the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2. He is 3-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts) against the Brewers. Scherzer lost at Milwaukee on April 4, when he yielded five runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. Houser last pitched on Friday, when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief in a 7-1 win over the Cleveland Guardians. |
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06-29-23 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units White Sox starter Lance Lynn hopes to improve on an awful season as he's allowed 69 runs in 90 innings pitched. Moreover, with a .449 expected opponent Slugging Percentage, a 10.1 Barrel Percentage, and a 4.69 expected ERA, opponents are making hard contact and powering the ball against Lynn to easily drive in runs. Angels starter Patrick Sandoval has shown flashes this year with a 34.8 Hard-Hit Rate but has struggled, allowing 39 runs in 75.2 innings pitched. In addition, with a .276 expected opponent Batting Average, a 16.9 Strikeout Percentage, and a 4.59 expected ERA, opponents are making contact and putting together strong plate appearances against Sandoval to easily drive in runs. Consider as well, that the over is 6-1-1 in Angels last 8 during game 4 of a series. |
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06-29-23 | Guardians v. Royals UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Although you can’t put a lot of faith in the starters on the mound today, these offenses have been incredibly unreliable this season. The Guardians are 27th in runs scored (4.02 runs per game) and 22nd in OPB (.311). Meanwhile, the Royals are 28th in runs scored and rank dead last in wOBA (.305). Although Greinke’s numbers haven’t been impressive, his home vs away splits are drastic. He has a 7.04 ERA on the road and a 3.77 ERA at home, including just 11 earned runs in his last 5 home starts. I trust Greinke to have a solid outing in KC against an unreliable offense. Bieber hasn’t been great on the road, allowing 12 earned runs in his last 2 road starts, but facing this lackluster Royals offense is a solid opportunity for him to get back on track. Consider that the under is 13-5 in Guardians last 18 during game 3 of a series. |
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06-28-23 | Rays -145 v. Diamondbacks | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tampa Bay Rays are in Arizona to face the Diamondbacks in game 2 of their series on tonight. Pitching for the Rays will be Zach Eflin, who has notable numbers through this point of the season. He currently has a 3.35 ERA and an impressive 1.03 WHIP. His percentiles back up these numbers too, as he sits in the higher end of most categories such as xBA (74th percentile), xSLG (69th percentile), K% (63rd percentile) & BB% (95th percentile). The Diamondbacks are definitely talented, but Eflin has the tools needed to potentially slow them down. On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be Zach Davies. He has struggled thus far, having a 1-4 record with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. His percentiles are the near opposite of Eflin as he sits near the bottom of the league in most categories. Additionally, the Rays are 8-2 in their last ten vs. a team with a winning record while the D-Backs are 21-53 in their last 74 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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06-28-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit starter, Joey Wentz, has been horrific this season with a 6.72 ERA and a 5.47 xERA paired with a 5.46 FIP. He also has just a 63 ERA+, so all signs point to Wentz not having a good game. He’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in June and will have to travel to the hitter’s paradise known as Globe Life Field for today’s start. This will be the southpaw’s first trip to Arlington this season, but it won’t be his first start against the Rangers. At the end of May, Texas knocked Wentz around in Detroit for 7 hits in 4.1 innings but managed to only get 1 run across – an odd occurrence from a powerful lineup. It only gets worse for Wentz too because he’s been worse on the road than at Comerica Park this year. In 6 starts away from home, the lefty is 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average. |
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06-28-23 | Astros +103 v. Cardinals | 10-7 | Win | 103 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Houston has struggled in their last ten games, going just 3-7, they have been more consistent on the road overall this season. The Astros are hitting .250 on the road this season but have shown off their power away from home, hitting 113 extra-base hits away from home this year in 37 games. They have hit 22 home runs in their last 15 road games and should be able to do some damage against Cardinals' starter Mikolas who has had trouble putting hitters away via the strikeout this season. The Cardinals are just 23rd in runs allowed per game this year and are allowing nearly a run more per game at home this season than on the road. The Cardinals are also just 4-7 in their last eleven home games after last nights win. The Cardinals have also lost each of Mikolas' last four appearances. |
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06-28-23 | Brewers v. Mets UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets will start rookie Kodai Senga who has a 3.52 ERA through 14 starts with a 6-5 record. Senga has been a solid pitcher especially for a rookie but his run support has been dwindling. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 4 of Senga’s last 6 starts. He will be opposed by Wade Miley for the Brewers. He has a 2.91 ERA through 10 starts with a 5-2 record. He has been fantastic in his last 3 starts allowing 3 runs or less. With these 2 starters on the mound, and both teams struggling at the plate, I like the under in this game. The Brewers are bottom 3% of the league in xBA and only average 4.10 runs per game. The Mets have better hitting statistics throughout the season but their record over the last 20 games says otherwise. Consider that the under is 39-17-4 in Brewers last 60 vs. a team with a losing record. |
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06-28-23 | Twins v. Braves OVER 9.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are starting very questionable starting pitchers. For the Braves, Kolby Allard will make his season debut. He’s not a terribly good pitcher, and he probably wouldn’t be making a start if not for the total decimation of the Braves’ pitching staff. He is fortunate that the Twins are just about the worst team in the league against left-handed pitching. Still, Allard should not be in the game long, and I think if they are going to hit anyone, the Twins should hit a below-average lefty making his season debut. The Twins are going with Kenta Maeda who gets to face what might be the nastiest offense in baseball, and the Braves are also the hottest team in the league right now. It’s going to be a long day for Maeda. Consider that the over is 35-17-3 in Twins last 55 interleague road games. |
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06-27-23 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have lost eight of their last 10 games and four of their last seven home games. They have struggled offensively and scored 11 runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggle will continue in this game because they haven't hit the ball well against left-handers and Kershaw has done well in the mound for the Dodgers in recent starts, giving up four runs in his last four starts. He gave up one run in his last two starts against the Rockies and will keep their offense in check once again. Consider that the under is 20-7-2 in Dodgers last 29 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. |
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06-27-23 | Astros -110 v. Cardinals | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Through the first three months of the season, Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has ranked among the top contenders for the American League Cy Young Award. Valdez (7-5, 2.27 ERA) will try to further his case Tuesday when he faces the Cardinals on Tuesday to open a three-game series in St. Louis. He has the second-best earned-run average among the league's qualified pitchers, trailing only Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan (2.23 ERA). Valdez is coming off a 4-2 victory over the New York Mets on June 20, which snapped Houston's five-game losing streak. He allowed the two runs on four hits over eight innings while striking out nine batters and walking just one. Valdez is 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his past six starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 15 starts overall. The Astros have a little momentum after winning Sunday night, while the Cardinals are jet-lagged after playing in London. |
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06-27-23 | Twins v. Braves -137 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ryan is an excellent pitcher, but he's been defeated more often than not recently, losing three of his last five outings. In two of those starts, he gave up five-plus runs and two long balls. If he's anything like that on Tuesday, the Braves will jump on him early, putting the Twins in a deficit they're unlikely to recover from. Minnesota hits .221/.300/.374/.674 on the road (37 GP) and .226/.303/.399/.702 in its night games (41 GP). Its' June splits (.229/.293/.401/.694) fall short of the mark, too. Elder has held eight of his last ten opponents to two or fewer runs, and six of those foes were held to one or no runs. |
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06-27-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | 4-9 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres are in need of wins and I expect them to rebound in this series against a Pirates squad that has been a disaster this month. The Pirates now look similar to last year. They recently lost 10 in a row and have just one win in their last 13 bouts due to a slumping offense. Padres’ starter Yu Darvish has shined against the Pirates in his career, sporting an outstanding 2.63 ERA and a 4-2 record in nine career meetings. Pirates’ starter Rich Hill has squandered six runs in his last 10.2 innings pitched and has a 4.62 ERA at home. The Padres have been stellar against lefties this season, posting a .778 OPS compared to a .695 OPS against righties. |
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06-26-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have won two of their last three games and five of their last seven home games. They are playing very well offensively at the moment and scored 27 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because Williams has struggled on the mound, especially on the road where he has given up 16 runs in his last four starts. With the Nationals also having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down Seattle’s hot bats. The Nationals have lost seven of their last nine games and five of their last eight road games. They have struggled offensively and scored only eight runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Castillo has done a good job on the mound for Seattle, giving up nine earned runs in his last four starts. He gave up only two runs in his last three home starts and will keep Washington’s offense in check. |
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06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels -128 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have to fly in to kick off this series, which eliminates any rest advantage to speak of here. Cease goes on an extra day of rest for the White Sox as they chose to send Tanner Banks to the hill in Sunday’s finale against Boston. With that said, he hasn’t been great with extra rest in his career, posting a 10-8 mark with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.363 WHIP, 104 walks and 219 strikeouts over 186.1 innings in 36 starts on five days rest. Detmers has been sharp his last few turns through the rotation and the Angels have been more consistent offensively this season. Playing at home with a lineup brimming with confidence is enough to give the Angels the advantage in this contest. |
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06-26-23 | Reds v. Orioles OVER 10 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.71 ERA) will start for the Orioles in the series opener. The left-hander, who will make just his sixth start of the season, last appeared in relief, allowing a run on two hits and a walk in one inning of a 7-2 loss at Tampa Bay on Wednesday. In his last start, Irvin took the loss, allowing three runs on five hits with four strikeouts and a walk in four innings as the Orioles fell 10-3 to the host Chicago Cubs on June 16. Irvin's only two appearances against the Reds in his career came in relief stints for the Phillies in 2019, when he pitched 2 1/3 innings over two games. Baltimore draws a matchup against the Reds’ struggling Brandon Williamson. The left-hander struggled in 34 AAA innings this season, allowing a 6.62 ERA and 6.58 FIP while generating a 7.15 K/9 and walking 5.29 batters per 9 innings. He was still called up, and the struggles have continued at the major league level. Through 7 starts Williamson has allowed 3 or more earned runs 5 times while posting a 5.40 ERA. Consider that the over is 10-4 in Reds last 14 interleague road games. |
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06-26-23 | Brewers +1.5 v. Mets | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are playing better after a rough patch, going 6-3 in their last nine games after posting a series win in Cleveland on the weekend. The New York Mets continue to struggle and are probably the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year. They have lost six of their last eight games. Mets’ starter Justin Verlander has not been nearly as dominant as we’re used to seeing. The Cy Young winner allowed four runs in three innings against the Braves three starts ago and another four runs in his previous outing against the Astros last week. The Mets are not winning games with him on the mound, losing in four of his last five outings. |
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06-24-23 | Angels v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 25-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The second game of the series between the Angels and Rockies will feature Griffin Canning for the visitors and Chase Anderson for the home team. While this may not seem like the greatest pitching matchup – it actually is. Canning has been great recently with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts this month as well as allowing 3 earned runs or less in 6 consecutive outings. On Saturday night, he will face a Colorado lineup that has struggled to produce in June. The Rockies owned a 70 wRC+ heading into Friday night’s game which is the 2nd-worst rate in the game during that time. Without Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant and CJ Cron, the Rockies offense has been non-existent. Consider that the under is 33-16-5 in Angels last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. |
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06-24-23 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals were smacked around 11-3 on Friday night in St. Pete, splashing cold water on the team after a surprising 6-5 win in the series opener. Kansas City turns to RHP Jordan Lyles, and it has been an adventure for the veteran right-hander all season. He is 0-11 with a 6.72 ERA, and on pace to be the first 20-game loser in the majors since Mike Maroth in 2003 with the Detroit Tigers. Kansas City is 0-5 in the last 5 third games in a series, while going 12-39 in the last 51 against teams with a winning overall record. The Rays are 35-17 in their last 52 games following a win, while going 51-17 in the last 68 games at Tropicana Field, which is a winning percentage of .750. |
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06-24-23 | Red Sox -107 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Paxton has been excellent since returning from the IL and has given the Red Sox arguably a #1 starter to replace the injured Chris Sale. He has been slightly less effective on the road but has still consistently gone into the sixth inning at least on the road. Lynn, despite his last start, has been hit hard this season with an ERA over six and allowed more hits than innings pitched. He has been even less effective at home with a reduced K/9 rate and a higher ERA. The Red Sox have the superior lineup of the two teams and should be able to take advantage of Lynn and his inconsistent stuff. Also, it will be interesting to see how veteran Lynn bounces back after throwing over 110 pitches in his last start and going deep into the game. I like the Sox to take advantage of Lynn in this one and take game two of this series. |
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06-24-23 | Rangers -127 v. Yankees | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers picked up a 4-2 victory in 10 innings in Friday’s series opener, handing the Yankees their second consecutive setback against an American League West team. Texas, meanwhile, has posted wins in 5 of its past 6 outings, including 3 straight wins against American League East Division foes. The Rangers hand the ball to RHP Jon Gray, who was pounded for 6 runs and 6 hits with 3 walks in just 2 1/3 innings in a no-decision on Sunday against Toronto. Texas still managed to win that game. Despite the ugly outing, he is still has a respectable 3.44 ERA in 18 1/3 innings in 3 June outings, including a complete-game loss in his prior outing against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 7. The Yankees counter with RHP Luis Severino, who has been extremely erratic in June. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of his 4 outings, and he hasn’t had a quality start while going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA in June. He has allowed 7 home runs in the ugly 18 2/3-inning span, while allowing 9 walks and 29 hits in the 4 outings. |
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06-24-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 13.5 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The walls have been backed up a bit, and seating has been added that shrinks the foul ball territory in London Stadium. The wall in the center field is still only 392 feet though, although it does stand 16 feet tall in dead center. Down the lines is 330 feet, and while London itself is a windy play (the Cubs should feel right at home!), the stadium was built to minimize those winds for the 2012 Olympics, so wind shouldn’t be a major factor. I don’t expect this stadium to play Mexico City crazy, even if the expected run total is elevated a bit. I still like Justin Steele to keep the ball on the ground and limit the Cardinals in the early innings, and while Wainwright is not great at this point in his career, I would be surprised if he doesn’t at least post a competitive performance on the big stage. Consider that the under is 31-15-5 in Cubs last 51 games following an off day. |
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06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers will send right-hander Emmet Sheehan (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound Friday for his second career start. The 23-year-old rookie had a dynamic debut last Friday when he did not allow a hit over six innings against the San Francisco Giants. Sheehan had a 0.89 WHIP at Double-A before being called up. The Astros will counter with their own rookie in right-hander J.P. France (2-2, 3.42), who has never faced the Dodgers. France pitched well in his most recent start last Friday against the Cincinnati Reds when he gave up two runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings but took the loss anyway against the red-hot Reds. In France's eight career starts, the Houston offense has averaged just 2.9 runs per game. The Dodgers come into this one with a 22-14 record at home. Houston has struggled since June 6, going 5-10 over a stretch played mostly without slugger Yordan Alvarez (oblique). |
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06-23-23 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals are 3-14 over the past 17 games with losing streaks of six and five games. Yesterday afternoon, Washington gave up four unearned runs in the makeup game against Arizona on what originally was an off day -- before flying cross country. The Friday pitching matchup will feature Washington left-hander Patrick Corbin (4-8, 4.89 ERA) and Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (5-2, 4.22). Neither pitcher faced the other team last month. Over his past five starts, Musgrove is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.091 WHIP and a .243 opponents' batting average. Corbin is 0-3 over his past three starts with a 4.76 ERA, a 2.000 WHIP and a .361 opponents' batting average. In 23 career appearances (18 starts) against the Padres, he is 7-10 with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.478 WHIP and a .285 opponents' batting average. |
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06-23-23 | Angels v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels arrive in Denver on the heels of being shut out in consecutive home games by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Angels had won 11 of 14 games before their bats went silent. They lost both games by 2-0 scores and had just five hits on Tuesday and two on Wednesday. Luis Rengifo had both hits on Wednesday when the Dodgers used seven pitchers during a bullpen game. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout each were hitless in seven at-bats in the series. Trout has 15 homers but has driven in just 39 runs while batting .250. His average is 50 points below his career mark. The Angels are attempting to fight through a recent injury bug that has seen shortstop Zach Neto (oblique) and third baseman Anthony Rendon (wrist) go on the 10-day injured list, with infielder Gio Urshela (fractured pelvis) likely done for the season. Consider that the under is 20-7-1 in Angels last 28 games following an off day. |
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06-23-23 | Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Recent history suggests the Boston Red Sox will be in good hands Friday night when right-hander Brayan Bello takes the mound for the start of a three-game road series against the Chicago White Sox. In his past nine starts, Bello has a 2.60 ERA. The 24-year-old has allowed no more than two earned runs in eight of those outings. Bello (4-4, 3.49 ERA) has pitched at least seven innings in three of his past five starts. Bello, who dealt with forearm tightness in spring training, was especially impressive in his past two starts, both of which were against the New York Yankees. He struck out a career-high eight batters in seven innings during Boston's 4-1 triumph over New York on Sunday. He held the Yankees to one run on four hits and three walks. In his previous outing, Bello allowed two runs on three hits in seven innings to help the Red Sox post a 3-2 victory over New York. He fanned three and walked two. Consider that the under is 10-2 in White Sox last 12 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. |
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06-23-23 | Mariners v. Orioles -104 | 13-1 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have been weak offensively all season long, ranking tied for 28th in team batting average (.226), 24th in on-base percentage (.307) and 25th in slugging percentage (.378) as a team entering Thursday’s action. Their offensive numbers could be worse if they weren’t hitting .250 as a team with runners in scoring position on the year. Gilbert has had his issues of late and we know how prolific the Orioles lineup is when it comes to putting runs on the board. Gibson has pitched well this season and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his past six starts, including when he held the Cubs to three runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and two walks over six innings in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. He knows that he can get decent run support from the lineup behind him. That’s something the Mariners, who are 15-20 on the road, haven’t been able to reliably provide for any of their pitchers. Baltimore rebounds after their tough trip to take the opening game of this series. |
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06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees -115 | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle has been disappointing offensively as one expected more from Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez this season after what we saw in 2022. The Mariners struggled to get anything going against Cole in the opening game of the series and have had their problems against German, including back on May 29 at home. Sure, they got to German for four runs on seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts but still ended up on the wrong side of a 10-4 blowout. Woo has shown good control in his three starts but those are his first outings above Double-A, which means there are growing pains that come with pitching at the big league level. The Yankees have had their own offensive woes with Aaron Judge on the IL but they should do enough against Woo to earn the win here, clinching the series. |
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06-22-23 | Pirates v. Marlins -134 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units During their losing streak, the Pirates have recorded a 112 wRC+ against the southpaws and 37 wRC+ against the righties. Even if the Bucs get to Braxton Garrett, who’ll have to slow down a bit, the Marlins have a few quality righties in their bullpen. Miami’s bullpen has been terrific in the last ten days, notching a 2.83 ERA and 3.35 FIP through 28.2 innings of work. On the other side, the Pirates’ relievers have thrown 25.2 frames in that span while posting a disastrous 9.82 ERA and 5.85 FIP. The Marlins’ offense will have a tall task to hit well against Mitch Keller despite his recent struggles, but I don’t trust Pittsburgh’s bullpen to get the job done. |
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06-22-23 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals rotation took a hit in May with the loss of righty Brad Keller. Keller is still rehabbing at the moment and is still likely a few weeks away. The team has several options to take the ball on Thursday but all will likely serve strictly as an opener against the powerful Rays' lineup. After going five innings in his last outing on June 16th, the most obvious choice to get the start is right-hander Mike Mayers. He is 1-2 in six appearances this season, including two starts. He has an ERA of 6.15, a WHIP of 1.63, and has allowed 17 hits in 26.1 innings of work. Consider that the over is 16-5 in Rays last 21 home games. |
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06-22-23 | Diamondbacks -148 v. Nationals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10 games above .500 on the road this season after securing a series win against the Brewers this week. The rebuilding Washington Nationals are playing with no confidence and have dropped seven of their last ten games. They aren't any better at home where they have lost nine of ten. The D-Backs have already played the Nationals five times this season, winning four of the meetings. D-Backs’ starter Tommy Henry just limited the Guardians to two runs in six innings in his latest effort. Arizona has won in each of his last four starts. It’s been a struggle for Nationals starter Jake Irvin, especially at Nationals Park where he has a horrible 6.20 ERA in 24.2 innings. |
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06-22-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is averaging 5.47 runs per game. Their .269 batting average is second in the league. Their .339 on base percentage is also second, while their .479 slugging percentage leads the league. Philadelphia is averaging 4.41 runs per game. Their .259 batting average is ninth in the league. Their .322 on base percentage is 14th, while their .419 slugging percentage is 11th. Consider that the over is 21-9 in Braves last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We believe that the Angels will win mostly because of the Dodgers’ struggles on the mound. The Dodgers’ relievers have been awful lately, sporting a 5.01 ERA, and better only than Oakland's (5.51) in the majors. Additionally, the Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t impressed in the last few weeks, whereas the Angels’ offense has done an excellent job. Only four guys from this Dodgers team have seen Shohei Ohtani before, combining for six hits and three RBI in 15 at-bats. Ohtani has had ups and downs since terrific April, but I’m expecting to see a strong performance in this game. The Dodgers have recorded an 86 wRC+ against the righties in the last two weeks. |
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06-21-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zac Gallen takes the ball for the Diamondbacks. He is the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young at the moment, and he has simply been fantastic this season. In his last outing, he threw 7 innings of 1-run baseball while striking out 7 Guardians. That is important because the Guards have the 2nd-lowest K rate in baseball. Let’s just say the Brewers are a little lower down the list (27th, actually). Oh, and the Brewers also have the third-lowest batting average against right-handed pitching. This should be a Gallen game all the way. But Milwaukee is throwing Julio Teheran, who is in the midst of a career resurgence. The regression police have been screaming about his 1.78 ERA for a month now, but all Teheran has done is make five starts, give up a total of six earned runs, and never more than two in a game. Consider that the under is 35-15-4 in Brewers last 54 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. |
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06-21-23 | Rockies v. Reds -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cincinnati Reds are riding a 10-game winning streak -- matching their longest run since 1957 -- heading into the finale of a three-game series against the visiting Colorado Rockies on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds have won 13 of 15 and 32 of their last 52 since a 7-15 start to the season. At 39-35, Cincinnati is four games over .500, its best mark since ending the 2021 season with an 83-79 record. Cincinnati starter, Andrew Abbott (3-0, 0.00 ERA) has yet to allow a run in three starts, covering 17 2/3 innings. Since the mound was moved to its current distance in 1893, Abbott is the only pitcher in major league history to open his career with three scoreless starts of at least five innings. Abbott will be facing Colorado for the first time. The Rockies, attempting to snap a seven-game losing streak, will look to conclude their 10-game road trip on a positive note. Right-hander Connor Seabold (1-3, 5.88 ERA) gets the starting assignment, his 10th start and 17th appearance of the season. Seabold is making his second start this season against Cincinnati. He allowed six runs, four earned, on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings on May 15. |
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06-21-23 | Blue Jays -129 v. Marlins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alcantara's struggles this season are a bit concerning. He dominated last season with his changeup but this season, he has had difficulty getting hitters out with that pitch. Alcantara appears to be one pitcher that has struggled with the shift changes this season with a higher batting average against him and difficulty putting hitters away. After dominating the Nationals over the last two seasons, Alcantara gave up 10 hits against the Nationals in his last start and was only able to strike out one batter. Gausman, meanwhile, has thrived with his splitter this season and has a K/9 rate up over 11. While his ERA raises slightly on the road, it is still under four and generally keeps the ball out of play with a high strikeout rate. I like Gausman to win what may not be as much of a pitchers' duel as it appears on paper. |
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06-20-23 | Rockies v. Reds -1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 109 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds will send right-hander Ben Lively (4-4, 4.07 ERA) to the mound on Tuesday for his first career start against Colorado. However, he did make a relief appearance against the Rockies on May 15, when he took a loss after allowing a run in 2 1/3 innings. Lively matched a season high with 10 hits allowed against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday in his most recent start. However, he allowed just two runs in 5 2/3 innings to earn his fourth win. The Rockies will counter with right-hander Noah Davis (0-1, 6.17 ERA). Davis was an 11th-round selection by the Reds in 2018, and he started his professional career in the Cincinnati minor league system in 2019. Tuesday will mark the fourth major league start of the season for Davis, but his first since allowing seven runs on seven hits in two innings in an 11-4 home loss to Arizona on April 29. Davis subsequently landed on the IL due to right elbow inflammation. After returning to make one rehab appearance for Albuquerque, he was optioned to the Triple-A club on June 1. In seven Triple-A starts overall this year, Davis is 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA. |
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06-20-23 | Cubs -121 v. Pirates | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago Cubs have found their stride, and they have been doing so at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chicago is 8-2 in its past 10 games, including a three-game sweep of the Pirates last week at home and Monday's 8-0 win in the opener of a three-game set in Pittsburgh. The Pirates, conversely, have lost seven in a row and are struggling to score. Chicago right-hander Marcus Stroman (8-4, 2.45 ERA) is scheduled to start against Pittsburgh right-hander Johan Oviedo (3-6, 4.40). Oviedo struck out eight but gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings to take the loss in that meeting, while Stroman allowed two runs on four hits in six innings and got the win. It was also Stroman's sixth consecutive win. He has a 1.51 ERA during that stretch, which spans 41 2/3 innings. Oviedo, on the other hand, has lost his past three decisions. He is 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against the Cubs. |
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06-20-23 | Royals v. Tigers -138 | 1-0 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers have won three of their last four games and have scored 18 runs in their last three home games. They have also hit the ball well against left-handers and Kansas City starter, Lynch has struggled on the mound, giving up 17 runs in four starts this season. He gave up 12 runs in his last three starts against the Tigers and with Kansas City having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Tigers in this game. The Royals have lost nine of their last 10 games and seven of their last eight road games and have struggled offensively on the road scoring only eight runs in their last five road games. They have struggled against right-handers and Detroit starter Lorenzen has done better on the mound at home, giving up 15 runs in five home starts. |
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06-20-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Matt Olson has been a big threat against the Phillies this season, smashing two homers and five RBIs complemented by a 1 OPS. The veteran first baseman is having an outstanding season, collecting 20 bombs with 51 RBIs and an .850 OPS. Olson has knocked in eight runs in his last eight games. The Braves are posting an average of 5.49 runs, good for third. JT Realmuto is swinging a hot bat, clubbing three homers and seven RBIs in his last six games. The veteran catcher struggled last month but has rebounded with a dazzling 1.019 OPS in June. The Phillies are averaging 4.44 runs on the year, marking them 17th. The pitching staff has reported a 4.28 team ERA, placing them 17th. Consider that the over is 26-9-2 in Braves last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning record. |
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06-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have lost six of their last eight games but they’ve won five of their last nine home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring 16 runs in their last three home games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Kelly has struggled on the mound in recent starts, especially on the road where he has given up eight runs in his last three starts. He gave up four runs in his last two starts against the Brewers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Diamondbacks have lost three of their last five games. Despite their slump, they have played well offensively, scoring 15 runs in their last three games. Consider that the over is 14-6-1 in Brewers last 21 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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06-19-23 | Cubs -118 v. Pirates | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at two teams heading in opposite directions over the last 10 days or so entering Sunday. Chicago had won five straight and seven of eight while the Pirates had lost five straight and eight of their previous 10. In the series opener, Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (6-4, 3.59 ERA) is expected to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Osvaldo Bido (0-0, 2.25). This is a rematch of Wednesday's game, when Smyly came away with the win and Bido, in his major league debut, did not get a decision despite a good outing. Smyly gave up five runs and nine hits in six innings, with four strikeouts and one walk, but got plenty of offensive support in Chicago's 10-6 win. Smyly has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 outings this year. |
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06-19-23 | Royals v. Tigers -142 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City has lost 14 of its last 16 games after the Los Angeles Angels defeated it 5-2 on Sunday. The Tigers won twice in a three-game series at Kansas City last month. It's been a rough season for the Royals, and right-hander Jordan Lyles, today's expected starter, epitomizes those struggles. Lyles has an 0-11 record and a 6.89 ERA. He's been charged with the loss in six of his past seven outings, including his last start on Tuesday. Lyles, who has made 14 starts, gave up five runs and five hits in six innings against Cincinnati. The Tigers hit much better at home (.246 BA/.320 OBP/.396 SLG/.716 OPS in 33 games) than they do away from Comerica Park (.212/.284/.329/.613 in 36 games) and are also better at the dish at night (.237/.321/.384/.705 in 34 games) than in day games (.219/.281/.338/.619 in 35 games). |
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06-19-23 | Blue Jays -152 v. Marlins | 0-11 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good opportunity for the Blue Jays to get back into the win column on Monday night. The Marlins are turning to an opener in this game which will lead to an extended bullpen effort for Miami. The Blue Jays have hit the ball well despite their inconsistency over the past week. In their last six games, the Jays are hitting .270, have hit eight home runs, and are slugging .428. The Jays will send Berrios to the mound, who is coming off his best performance of the season with 7.2 innings of three-hit ball against the Orioles on the road. Berrios has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last month and a half. He has gone 4-0 in his last five starts with an ERA of just 1.11. Expect Berrios to keep the Marlins at bay as the Blue Jays' offense takes advantage of a bullpen game from Miami. |
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06-18-23 | Giants +115 v. Dodgers | 7-3 | Win | 115 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Something has to give in this matchup with Webb coming in undefeated in his career at Dodger Stadium and Gonsolin with an ERA under 2.00 at home this season. I'm leaning to the Giants in this game for two reasons; they are playing better baseball now, and I trust that Webb will go deeper in this game than Gonsolin. The Dodgers lineup is hitting just .234 in their last ten games with a record of just 4-6 heading into Saturday night's game. The loss of Muncy is also damaging to the Dodgers' middle of the order. which should boost Webb's chances of going deeper in this game. The Dodgers are also hitting just .224 during the day this season while the Giants are hitting .253 during the day. |
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06-18-23 | Phillies -1.5 v. A's | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Athletics are back to losing consistently, it's safe to bet against them every night again. Especially with a streaking Philadelphia team in town and their top starting pitcher on the mound for the start. Active Oakland batters have just 10 combined PA against Wheeler in their careers, and that unfamiliarity should benefit the pitcher, especially with his diverse 5-pitch repertoire. Hogan Harris can give Oakland a chance, but the Athletics' offense, defense, and bullpen won't be much backup. Philadelphia has won 12 of 14 and five straight. Take the team that's better, hotter, and needs a win more, which is the Philadelphia Phillies. |
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06-18-23 | Angels v. Royals OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither pitcher has been very good lately. Zack Greinke is clearly in the twilight of his career, and he has given up 8 runs in his last 2 starts. He rarely goes beyond 5 innings either, and any time the Royals’ bullpen gets involved, that is risky business. The Angels will start Tyler Anderson, who has given up 5, 4, and 6 earned runs in his last 3 starts. He has fallen apart lately, and even the Royals should be poised to hit him hard. With both pitchers struggling, this seems like a good time to play the over, especially since we had 19 runs on the board on Saturday. Consider that the over is 5-2 in Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. |
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06-18-23 | Angels -121 v. Royals | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are 0-6 in Greinke's last six starts, and the Angels are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. The Angels are one of the hottest teams today, and I don't expect that to change tomorrow. Los Angeles scored four runs on seven hits against Zack Greinke earlier this season, launching two homers. I predict another solid day at the plate for LA. Anderson wasn't sharp in his previous outing against KC on April 22 (five earned runs on seven hits), but I don't expect the Royals to have similar success on Sunday. Kansas City is 1-12 straight-up this month, which isn't surprising when you consider its' June splits (.227/.288/.343/.631) at the plate and performance on the mound (5.63 ERA). KC has slightly better splits vs. left-handed pitchers than vs. righties, but it's not consistent enough to warrant a moneyline bet, even at home. |
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06-18-23 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals and Mets complete their series on Sunday afternoon after splitting the first 2 games. The Mets won 6-1 on Friday, while the Cardinals won 5-3 on Saturday. Neither game has gone over today’s run total, and that has a lot to do with the struggling offenses for both teams. The Mets are really missing Pete Alonso in the middle of their order, while the Cardinals have been cold for most of the last 2 weeks. The higher run total is a reflection of the below-average pitchers going on Sunday, but I still prefer to fade these offenses. Consider that the under is 14-5-1 in Cardinals last 20 overall. |
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06-17-23 | Rays +102 v. Padres | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be a good spot for the Padres, but I'd rather take my chances with the Rays. San Diego has struggled to win in favorable spots throughout the season, which is why they are the fifth worst-money team in MLB according to covers.com (-$1,085). On the other side, the Rays are the third-best money team (+$1,122) and 22-6 in their last 28 games against left-handed pitchers. Blake Snell has been pitching better for the Padres as of late, yet still, the club has lost five of his last seven starts. Overall the Rays are 10-2 when Eflin starts this season, and the Padres are just 3-10 when Snell takes the hill. I have to back baseball's best team here. |
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06-17-23 | Cardinals v. Mets -148 | 5-3 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have won six of their last 10 home games and have scored 14 runs in their last three home games. It’s been a long season for St. Louis starter, Adam Wainwright – and he’s only made 7 starts. Wainwright has a 5.79 ERA paired with a 6.21 xERA in 37.1 innings, and he’s allowed at least 3 runs in every outing so far. His sinker is sitting mid-80s and his curveball isn’t spinning as much as it used to. That has added up to Wainwright becoming a batting practice pitcher this season, and that shouldn’t stop anytime soon. He’s yet to show that he can limit an offense, so until that happens, fade the longtime Cardinal and take New York’s money line. |
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06-17-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 9 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A’s will turn to James Kaprielian, who is not a good pitcher at all, and his 6.89 ERA and 1.71 WHIP is a pretty accurate indication of who he is. He has been better than that of late, but I would expect the Phillies to knock him around quite a bit on Saturday. The Phillies will be calling up Christopher Sanchez, who began his career with the Rays, but they moved on from him, and that is telling for a pitcher. He has made a few appearances for Philadelphia over the past couple of years, mostly in relief. He is nothing to be excited about, and he is probably just a “whoever we can call up” move. There is no reason Oakland can’t put some runs on him as well. The wind should be blowing out in Oakland, which matters more in the afternoon than in the night games. And with both starting pitchers vulnerable, this should be a good day to score. Consider that the over is 32-15-5 in Phillies last 52 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. |
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06-17-23 | Orioles +111 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steele (6-2, 2.65 ERA) takes the ball for the first time since exiting his start against Tampa Bay on May 31 with a left forearm strain. Though the Cubs are winless in Steele's past four starts, the left-hander is one inning shy of ranking among the major league leaders in ERA, opponents' batting average (.228) and WHIP (1.06). He has eight quality starts. Steele, who could be on a pitch count, faced Baltimore at home last July and allowed four runs, three earned, and six hits over six innings of a 7-1 Chicago loss. he Orioles will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson, who is a completely unexciting pitcher, but has managed to be serviceable all season. He has pitched to a 3.90 ERA, he hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in his last 5 starts, and the Orioles have won 4 of those starts. He keeps his team in the game so that his offense can work, and they seem overdue after a slow Friday. The Orioles are the better team in every phase of the game, and we don’t love backing a pitcher in his first game back from the IL. |
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06-17-23 | Orioles v. Cubs OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gunnar Henderson is considered one of the Orioles' top prospects and is delivering at the plate, accumulating a remarkable nine RBIs in his last six games. The 21-year-old third baseman now has 10 homers with 26 RBIs and a .792 OPS. The O’s are dealing with injuries as Mullins and Mountcastle remain out. Baltimore is averaging 4.99 runs per game, marking them sixth. The pitching staff is carrying a 4.13 team ERA, placing them 12th. Seiya Suzuki has been slumping at the dish in recent weeks, recording three RBIs and a .600 OPS on the month. The 28-year-old slugger is one of the Cubs best hitters, knocking in 22 runs along with an .822 OPS. Suzuki went 2 for 8 with no RBIs against the Orioles last season and 1 for 5 on Friday. Chicago is heating up at the plate and is averaging 4.49 runs on the year, ranking them 16th. The pitching has reported a 4.17 team ERA, positioning them 14th. Consider that the over is 13-5 in Orioles last 18 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |