Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-22 | Flames v. Panthers -127 | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames hold an excellent recent record against the Panthers, having beaten the Cats on eight of the past 11 occasions. Calgary has, however, struggled to put good-enough performances together lately, managing to win just two of its previous 10 overall fixtures and just one road outing during the current season so far. The Cats, on the other hand, have been solid on own ice throughout the past few campaigns, going 53-16 in their very last 69 domestic matchups. They have triumphed in two of their most recent three home meetings with the Flames and are set to welcome back Aleksander Barkov, who is likely to return from a non-Covid-related illness. He has amassed nine points (2 goals, 7 assists) in 12 career contests against Calgary |
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11-19-22 | Iowa +2.5 v. Minnesota | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gophers polished off the tarnish of a 3-game losing streak to become Golden again thanks to three straight wins. Not surprisingly their defense is allowing an average of 250 YPG during the run of victories. History lines up against Minnesota though, as only once in the last 15 meetings have they been the betting favorite and in the series Iowa has bullied them, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Iowa beat Wisconsin last week with one of their most explosive offensive days this season…146 yards. Iowa is a DIA DIA in this one, too (Dominating Dogs in Action, Doing it Again). |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL -130 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Providence has used its athleticism to beat down on a few bad teams since its narrow win to open the season, but the Friars are not going to be able to do that this afternoon. They have less height and experience than Miami, so their offensive rebounding numbers are going to dip. Miami also likes to play at a faster pace, which is going to be frustrating for a Providence team that is still trying to get used to several new faces on the roster. Larranaga is going to pick up career win No. 700 on Saturday, as his team will advance to Sunday’s title game. |
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11-19-22 | Illinois +18 v. Michigan | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 72 h 31 m | Show |
Big-10 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Good numbers for the visitors, though, as they’re 4-0 ATS as double-digit conference road dogs this season, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight run-ins with undefeated conference foes. Michigan counters with a superb 11-1 ATS mark as Big Ten home chalk of less than 20 points, but the Maize-and Blue can’t be trusted to cash a ticket in their final home game, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS in the last eight such affairs. And let’s face it, Harbaugh will work from a strictly “vanilla” playbook today to avoid tipping off Ohio State’s Ryan Day. Meanwhile, with two rough defenses doing battle today – and Ohio State on deck for Michigan – points could be hard to come by. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .700 > foe is 16-2-2 ATS since 1980. |
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11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Unit We realize TCU is 12-1 ATS in LRGs (Last Road Games), but they weren’t undefeated then and carrying the weight of being in the position they are in this year. Meanwhile, some of the numbers look very good when studying Baylor: 5-0 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, 7-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 10 points in previous game, and 3-0 ATS with double conference revenge (Bears lost 30-28 as 7.5-point favorites at TCU last season, one of only two defeats they were dealt in 2021). Meanwhile, back to the Horned Frogs, whose numbers are less-shiny: 1-6 ATS versus double conference revenge and 2-12 ATS after playing Texas. It is extremely strange to imagine, but the Frogs can possibly afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff – but why take the chance? One thing we know for sure is Baylor is 13-1 ATS as a dog with conference revenge versus a foe coming off a SUATS win, including 8-0 ATS at home |
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11-19-22 | Connecticut +10.5 v. Army | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A year ago, the spot on this one would have been around the 17-pt margin, or similar. Fact is that the Cadets are once again among the leaders in overland production (#2 behind only Air Force), but among the dregs, defensively, ranking just 71st, with that coming against such powers as Villanova, GeorgiaSt, Colgate, & Monroe, with mighty UMass on the horizon. Their current 3-0 SU/ATS run has lowered the spot on this, much to the delight of their backers. Not only is UConn bowl eligible, but is also a weekly profit producer, covering its last 7 games, the latest in its upset of Liberty, resulting in a +17 pt cover. |
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11-18-22 | Pacers -190 v. Rockets | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers continue to dazzle, winning four out of their last five games propelled by consistent offensive production. The Rockets are stumbling. While they collected a rare win against Dallas on Wednesday, they only have two wins in their last 11 games. The Pacers are in a groove, averaging a remarkable 123 points in their last four games. This is key as the Rockets' defense is abysmal. They remain second last in the NBA in defensive efficiency and have squandered at least 116 points in five out of their last six games. The Pacers continue to defy the odds, literally. They have covered in eight consecutive games and will cover again. |
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11-18-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks won their first matchup with the Sixers this season, a two-point win in Philadelphia in October. The Sixers had Harden in that matchup while the Bucks played without Middleton and Connaughton. They should have Connaughton back for this matchup even while Middleton remains out. Lopez size and length can give Embiid problems and that showed through in the first matchup as Embiid was held to just 15 points. The Sixers have been off since Sunday so expect them to be rusty to start in this one. With Antetokoumpo back to full strength, he provides additional support in the paint against Embiid. And, not that many teams do, but the Sixers don't have anyone that can match up effectively with the Greek Freak. |
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11-18-22 | Baylor -190 v. Virginia | 79-86 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While it’s only been two games but the Cavaliers are giving ups threes. Last year the three-point defense was exploited. They ranked 240th in three-point defense last season and so far opponents are shooting 36.7% from deep against them, ranking them 283rd. Baylor is a prolific offensive squad that has connected on 51.3% of their field goals. The Bears are averaging 2.1 more points per 100 possessions than the Cavaliers. |
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11-17-22 | Nets v. Blazers -130 | 109-107 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland has covered the spread in four of its last five games and has been outstanding on the defensive end of the court. Brooklyn does not have enough firepower to keep pace with the top teams in the league right now, as Irving’s absence leaves the Nets severely shorthanded. They have gone 1-6 in their last seven games against Western Conference teams, and I do not expect that trend to change. |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | 27-17 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in this series when both teams are coming off a win. On the flip side, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in games in which they were an underdog in their last game and their opponent was favored in its last contest. The emergence of Packers rookie WR Christian Watson may be just what the doctor ordered as he scored three touchdowns to go with 8 receptions and 107 yards in last week’s stirring overtime win against Dallas. With QB Aaron Rodgers 5-1 SUATS in his last six games following a SU underdog win. To clinch is, Green Bay is 7-0 SUATS in their last seven Thursday games, and Tennessee is 0-4 SUATS in their last four appearances on Thursdays. |
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11-17-22 | Ducks v. Jets -199 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has stepped up but the defense has been one of the best in the league, allowing only 2.36 goals per game with only eight goals in the last five games. Josh Morrissey and Brenden Dillon have combined for 2.1 defensive point shares and 42 blocked shots while Nate Schmidt, Neal Pionk, and Dylan DeMelo have combined for 2.5 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. Furthermore, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has been great in the net with a .935 save percentage and a 2.08 goals-against average on 356 shots. |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -150 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU is 1-5 ATS record as a dog of 7 or fewer points, and is 2-10 ATS playing in the second of back-to-back conference road games. Right on cue we see that Tulane is 6-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive home games and a register-ringing 11-2 ATS as chalk of less than 6 points. It will be interesting to see how the Wave behaves following last week’s downer versus UCF. We feel a bounce back is in order. |
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11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's -9.5 | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I see St. John's being the better team on both ends of the court. They are currently scoring the 23rd most points per game and they have the 14th-highest team shooting percentage in the country. Nebraska won't be able to consistently stop them, as they will slowly pull away. Nebraska has had a great start to the season, but they aren't as talented as this St. John's team. |
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11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers -132 | 3-1 | Loss | -132 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kings have failed to win any of their last three road contests, posting just a single win on their most recent six trips. That will definitely be a problem when facing off against the Oilers, who, despite dropping their previous two home matchups, have still recorded a whopping 12 triumphs in their most recent 16 encounters with Los Angeles in Edmonton. The Oilers have also beaten the Kings on seven of the past 10 occasions overall, winning by more than one strike in five of those outings. |
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11-16-22 | Gonzaga v. Texas -130 | 74-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Texas Longhorns have a chance to avenge last season's opening loss in Gonzaga, 86-74. The Longhorns were welcoming a new coach, Chris Beard, and a new scheme against the #1 ranked team in the country at that time. This season, Texas returns three starters from last season's 22-win team and have a better understanding of Beard's offensive and defensive philosophy. More importantly, Texas will be playing this one in front of a raucous home crowd. The Longhorns have started this season off on the right foot with two-straight home wins. The Texas backcourt has been the story with Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter combining for 51 points through the first two games. Texas is coming off of a 50-point win over Houston Christian in which the defense held them to just 31 points. |
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11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards -182 | 121-120 | Loss | -182 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Beal should be ready to go after missing over a week in health and safety protocols. His return should help the Wizards both on the perimeter and to nullify some of the offensive firepower of Gilgeous-Alexander. Beal's presence should also allow Porzingas more room in the paint as the Thunder will have to respect his shooting on the perimeter. The Wizards also are catching the Thunder on the next to last game of an Eastern Conference swing. Look for the Wizards to expose the Thunder in the paint and do just enough on the perimeter to bother the hot shooting Thunder. |
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11-16-22 | Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hard to believe head coach Thomas Hammock is winding up his 4th season with the Huskies. After last year’s 9-5 finish, NIU – who ranked No. 8 nationally in Returning Player Production and welcomed 18 starters back – was expecting more of the same in 2022. After ten games, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU. Consider that Miami Ohio is 8-0 ATS coming off a SU loss as a dog, and 6-1 ATS off a loss versus a foe off a win. You should also know Northern Illinois is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in the last eight get-togethers with Miami, and 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win. |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -125 | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I cannot justify a wager on the Grizzlies in this spot, as they could be without most of their key scoring production. They need everyone healthy in this type of game, as New Orleans has a ton of offensive firepower. Neither team has been great on the defensive end, and the Pelicans are the much healthier team. They have covered the spread in five of their last six home games against Memphis. |
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11-15-22 | Capitals v. Panthers -195 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida Panthers backup goalie Spencer Knight is seeing much more action and is 5-2-0 with a 2.3 1 goals-against average and is expected to be between the pipes again on Tuesday night when the Panthers host Washington. In seven appearances, Knight has one shutout and has allowed three goals or less in 6 of 7 starts. Florida has dominated this matchup, winning four of the last five games overall between the two and four of the last five games played on their home ice against the Capitals. The visiting team, in this case, Washington, has lost seven of the last 10 games between the two. |
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11-15-22 | Canucks v. Sabres -103 | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are desperate to snap out of their losing streaks but I like the Sabres to snap out of their slump on their home ice. The Sabres should pile on the goals against a Canucks defense that allows 4.06 goals per game with Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with strong centering passes. The Sabres should also limit the Canucks offense with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers at the blue line and limiting the Canucks from establishing a strong offensive zone presence while goaltender Eric Comrie makes plenty of big saves in the net. |
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11-14-22 | Kings v. Flames -170 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames have looked promising to start the season but hope the offense can step up, scoring only 2.93 goals per game. Nazem Kadri, Tyler Toffoli, and Elias Lindholm have scored 17 goals and 15 assists to lead the top two lines but the rest of the offense has struggled. Only four skaters have scored five goals or more while only five skaters have added five assists or more to the offense and opposing defenses can limit the top-heavy offense as result. |
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11-14-22 | Butler v. Penn State -5.5 | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Bulldogs played well defensively in their first game, they were facing an overmatched team and will have a hard time slowing down the hot-shooting Nittany Lions. The Bulldogs also played well offensively in their first game, but they didn’t shoot the ball well, especially from three-point range where they made less than 20 percent of their shots. They also struggled from the free throw line, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They rebounded the ball well and will get extra scoring opportunities that will help them keep the score close. They were very careless with the ball and they’re facing a defense that has done a good job forcing turnovers, which will lead to easy scoring opportunities for them. With the Nittany Lions holding their first two opponents under 70 points per game, the Bulldogs will have a hard time keeping up, so go with Penn State to cover the spread. |
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11-14-22 | Hornets v. Magic +105 | 112-105 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hornets will be without Hayward while Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable. They are stumbling offensively, netting 100 or fewer points in five out of their last seven games. The Magic are playing stifling defense, conceding only 87 and 97 points respectively in their last two games against the Suns and Mavs. The Magic were able to hold Charlotte to only 38% shooting in the first meeting. |
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11-13-22 | Nuggets v. Bulls +100 | 126-103 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nuggets have continued to struggle to defend on the road. They are currently allowing the 23rd most points per game and the fourth-highest shooting percentage. They will struggle to slow down the Bulls, as I see DeRozan having a big game in this one. Chicago has also shown that they can consistently knock down shots from deep, as they have the 12th-highest team shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Nuggets will leave their perimeter shooters open and continue to give up points throughout this game. |
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11-13-22 | Capitals v. Lightning -171 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Things did not go Tampa Bay’s way on Friday, when pucks refused to go into opposing Washington’s net and the team’s power play remained stale (0-for-3; 1-for-10 in the last three games). A return to Amalie Arena, though, will be highly appreciated, as the Bolts have already posted a decent 3-1-1 record in their most recent five domestic fixtures and will once again be facing off against the Capitals, who have only managed to win two of their past five trips to Tampa. Currently holding just two triumphs in its last seven outings overall, having posted just a single victory on its previous four travels. |
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11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs -5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers look to pull out of their funk against an opponent experiencing a more pronounced dip. Minnesota's losing streak equals Cleveland at three games, but the Timberwolves have dropped six of their last seven with Friday's 114-103 defeat against Memphis. Each of the last three Minnesota losses have been by double-digit-point margins, and none of the six in this slide have been any closer than nine points. A 46-33 Grizzlies rebounding advantage turned into a 32-9 edge in second-chance points Friday. Minnesota also yielded a 62-46 disparity for points in the paint. |
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11-13-22 | Sharks v. Wild -227 | 3-2 | Loss | -227 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fleury had a 3.71 goals-against average while starting 1-2-1 but owns a 1.70 GAA while winning five of seven since for the Wild, who hope to improve on a 2-4-0 home mark. In his last 11 starts against San Jose, with Vegas, Chicago and Minnesota, Fleury is 9-1-1 with a 1.54 GAA. Backup Filip Gustavsson (1-3-0, 3.10 GAA) has never faced San Jose. The Wild have won two straight and five of the last six against the Sharks, who ended their 2-3-0 slide with Friday's 5-4 victory at Dallas. San Jose ranks near the bottom of the NHL by allowing 58 goals, with 28 coming in the last six games. However, the Sharks have scored 23 times during that span, while coming out of a hostile environment in Dallas with just their fourth win in 16 games could potentially spark a needed run. |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys -4 v. Packers | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cowboys bring with them a league-best 33 sacks in eight games led by game-wrecker Micah Parsons. Dallas is rested following its bye week. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games with four of those victories achieved when back up quarterback Cooper Rush was under center. Mike McCarthy has had this matchup circled from the start in his return to Green Bay having been the Packers’ head coach for 13 seasons. Dak Prescott is back in healthy form. The Packers won’t have injured Rashan Gary, their best pass rusher. Despite having Kenny Clark at nose tackle, the Packers’ disappointing run defense ranks 26th. Green Bay’s special teams still remain bad, too. There is a bigger gap between these two teams than the point spread indicates |
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11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
Upset of the Week Rating: 5 Units Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game. Consider that Cleveland HC is 11-6 ATS as a dog with his current team, including 5-0 ATS against opponents he defeated in a most recent meeting. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos +3 v. Titans | 10-17 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Mike Vrabel’s supermen have out-yarded just one foe this year while losing the stats an average -86 net YPG. For what it’s worth, only Houston and Pittsburgh are worse, and they own a collective record of 3-12-1 this season. Making matters worse for the Nashville cats, the well-rested Broncos are 5-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week, as well as 7-1 ATS in this series. In addition, Denver sports a 7-1 ATS mark in this series, including 5-0 ATS in games in which it has a losing record. With the Titans 2-6 ATS at home coming off back-to-back road games, we’re all over Denver here. |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears -145 | 31-30 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Lions are likely still feeling giddy after beating the Packers, 15-9, last week. They’d better not live too long in the moment as they ride a 5-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak entering this game. They are also 2-13 ATS as a dog in first of consecutive away games, 0-4 ATS with double division revenge, not to mention 2-7 SUATS in division games after holding a division foe under 10 points in their previous game. With the bad news Bears 6-0 ATS in first meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS at home off a home game, look for the Lions to fall asleep here today. |
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11-13-22 | Thunder +5.5 v. Knicks | 145-135 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is coming off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season, as eight players scored in double figures in its blowout win over Toronto. The Thunder are going to bring that confidence into this game, and they have already put together a four-game winning streak once this year. They also have one of the most dynamic point guards in the NBA leading the way, so they have multiple ways to win games. New York has not met Vegas expectations so far, covering the spread just twice in its last nine games. The Knicks are also 1-6 in their last seven home games against Oklahoma City. |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Pete Carroll’s crew enters on a 4-0 SUATS win skein, winning three of the games outright as underdogs. And speaking of dogs, Seattle QB Geno Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last fifteen games when taking points in this league, including 7-0 ATS versus .444 or greater foes. On the other side of the fi eld, it should be noted that Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral fields, but only 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS versus NFC West foes with the Bucs. In wrapping things up, it should also be noted that NFL teams with the better record are 19-8-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in Euro games. To clinch is, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 7-2 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when riding a three-game-plus win skein, including 7-0 ATS when taking either 2 or 3 points. |
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11-12-22 | Blues v. Golden Knights -205 | 3-2 | Loss | -205 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While St. Louis has to feel good after finally getting that big monkey off their backs, this is still a team who has lost four straight games on the road and has been handled in each of those losses, outscored 18-4. They are playing poorly away from St. Louis, scoring two goals or fewer in five of their road games. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are looking untouchable. This is a team coming off an impressive five-game, East Coast road trip that saw the club win in Washington, Ottawa, Montréal, Toronto, and Buffalo. In their last three home contests, they have outscored opponents 9-2 and have yet to give up more than three goals at home this season. |
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11-12-22 | Rockets +10.5 v. Pelicans | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite their record, the Rockets have played extremely hard for Silas both last year and to start this season. That is indicated in key statistical areas like rebounding and personal fouls, due to their aggression. Houston is 7-5 ATS this season despite sitting at just 2-10. They will be tested here by another young, aggressive team in the Pelicans. The Pelicans have shown their youth this season through their inconsistency. While they sit at 6-6 overall, they are just 5-7 ATS. After starting the season with two double-digit wins, the Pelicans have only one win by over 10 points since that time. The Rockets, meanwhile, have only lost three of their ten losses by more than 10 points. |
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11-12-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. 76ers | 109-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Atlanta is off to its best start (8-4) since the 2016-17 season, Philadelphia sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 5-7 record. The underachieving Sixers were hoping to build on Monday's encouraging 100-88 win over the Phoenix Suns, but instead turned in a dismal effort versus Atlanta. Philadelphia shot 38.6 percent from the field in the loss, including 6 of 30 (20 percent) from 3-point range. The Sixers have struggled to find a rhythm without star James Harden, who missed the last three games and will be out for approximately one month with a right foot tendon strain. |
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11-12-22 | TCU +7 v. Texas | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Frogs are now at No. 4 in the nation, reaching 9-0 for the first time since 2010, a 13-0 season that ended with a Rose Bowl victory and No. 2 national ranking. To be honest, we’ve had these Frogs on our fade list often this season and have been eating crow trying to explain their uncanny ability to overcome second-half deficits during this campaign in four of their wins. However, to seal the deal, consider that 9-0 or greater underdogs are 11-2-1 ATS during the regular season when not coming off an ATS win of more than 11 points, including 6-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. |
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11-12-22 | Penguins v. Canadiens +158 | 4-5 | Win | 158 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Canadiens have won back-to-back games and I see them stepping up and controlling this game on their home ice. The Canadiens should pile on the goals against a Penguins defense that is allowing 3.46 goals per game with Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with great puck movement. |
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11-12-22 | Georgia -16 v. Mississippi State | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MSU ranks 128th in rushing, averaging 80.7 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Their dink and dunk passing attack averages just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their three losses. So do we think Georgia is on upset alert? Absolutely not. And if not, do we think Mississippi State tops that 17-point mark? Maybe if there’s a letdown. But Georgia doesn’t need to score much to cover even in that event. Mississippi State is vulnerable to the run, which Georgia will pound at, leading to timely downfield passing on occasion. Georgia has been held under 30 points just twice, further lending confidence to this spread. |
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11-12-22 | Oilers v. Panthers -165 | 4-2 | Loss | -165 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oilers have lost four of their last five games and two of their last three road games. Even though they are playing well offensively, expect them to struggle in this game because the Panthers are playing well defensively, giving up five goals in their last three home games. They’ve also done well on special teams, killing 75 percent of their penalties, and won’t have trouble keeping Edmonton’s offense in check. The Panthers have won three of their last four games and three straight home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least four goals in three of their last four games. |
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11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -107 | 69 h 26 m | Show |
ACC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Louisville has quietly stitched together a decent season after a terrible start and may be saving Scott Satterfi eld’s job. Satterfi is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS against teams coming off a spread loss of 19 or more points. UL is 4-0 SUATS in their last four. To tap it off playing against any CFB home favorite of more than 4 points from Game Nine out coming off its first loss of the year as a favorite of 4 or more points if they are off a DD ATS loss and are facing a foe who allows 20.1 or fewer PPG is 11-0 ATS since 1982. |
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11-12-22 | Alabama -11.5 v. Ole Miss | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Saban is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2011 versus foes with a better record, including 5-1 ATS during the regular season, and don’t forget about the Saban’s 27-2 SU career mark in games against former assistants. So how is it the 2-loss Tide is installed as a double-digit favorite in this contest? For the answer, consider that playing on any AP Preseason No. 1 college team as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in their previous game is g 29-15 ATS mark (66%) in these games since 1980. Put them up against quality opposition (greater than .600) and they shoot up to 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS in this role. Better yet, let these Preseason No. 1 squads enter this same game with a .900 or fewer win percentage on the season, they ratchet up to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS. |
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11-12-22 | Senators v. Flyers +120 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Senators have lost seven straight games and all five road games they have played this season. Even though they continue to play well offensively, they will struggle in this game because the Flyers have done a good job defensively, holding opponents under three goals per game. They’ve also done well on special teams, killing 83.7 percent of their penalties, and will keep Ottawa’s offense in check. The Flyers have won two of their last three games and two of their last three home games. |
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11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 46 h 49 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Arkansas is 13-6 SUATS at home when coming off a SU favorite loss to a conference foe, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points. Also, Sam Pittman is 19-9-1 ATS overall in his career with the Hogs, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. In addition, you need to realize that LSU is a horrendous 2-7 ATS as a road favorite of less than 15 points while coming off back-to-back home games. Also, road favorites who upset Alabama the previous week are also just 2-7 ATS in the following game since 1980 when coming off three consecutive wins, including 0-5 ATS when they own a win percentage of greater than .750 on the season. Sure, Jayden Daniels has improved greatly, as has the Tiger defense, but Pittman’s crew will be up to the challenge. Finally, Arkansas is 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss in this series. |
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11-11-22 | Cavs +2.5 v. Warriors | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is having trouble slowing anyone down on the defensive end, which does not bode well against a Cleveland offense that is in the top 10 in the NBA. The Cavaliers have completely changed their trajectory as a franchise by adding Mitchell, and they have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games. Golden State has been vastly overvalued, covering once in its last six games. I want no part of the Warriors right now, while Cleveland is an undervalued team that I am happy to back. |
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11-11-22 | Wild v. Seattle Kraken +104 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kraken are currently enjoying the best form of their existence, riding a franchise-record five-game winning run. And that will definitely be a problem for Minnesota, which has struggled against opponents from the Western Conference of late, managing to register just three triumphs on the last 10 occasions. The Wild were already blanked with a count of 4-0 on own ice by Seattle just two games ago and have posted a disappointing 1-5 total in their most recent six fixtures versus sides with a winning record. The Kraken, meanwhile, are playing with tremendous confidence and have notched nine wins in their past 13 outings against teams with a losing record. |
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11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars -220 | 5-4 | Loss | -220 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stars have looked like one the best teams in the Western Conference and I see them not only defeating the Stars but doing so in a dominant fashion. The Stars, who average 3.62 goals per game, should find the back of the net at will with Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick puck movement to overwhelm a Sharks defense that allows 3.29 goals per game. |
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11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pirates are gaining tons of respect from Vegas these days, and rightfully so. They are 7-2 ITS, winning the stats by an average +69 net YPG, and they bring a 10-4 ATS road dog log into this contest under head coach Mike Houston, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off a loss. At 6-3 / 3-2, East Carolina trails the Bearcats by a full game on both sides of the ledger, but they arrive with momentum from a 3-game win streak, including last week’s hard-fought 27-24 decision over BYU at Provo. Cincy head coach Luke Fickell is likely freaking out, riding a current 0-4-1 ATS streak entering this contest. |
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11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga -11 | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Zags have the advantage of more continuity than the Spartans in this early-season matchup between two of college basketball's top programs. The Spartans will have difficulty containing the Zags highly potent offense even in this game playing in the unusual confines of the USS Abraham Lincoln. The first half against North Florida gave a good indication of how dangerous Gonzaga's offense can be, as the Bulldogs shot 67% from the field overall. Overall, the Zags had 66 points in the paint and Timme should dominate the interior in this matchup as well. Typically, MSU gradually gets better as the year goes along. This is a tough matchup for them in the early going. |
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11-10-22 | Flames v. Bruins -189 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bruins have won eight of their last nine games and seven straight home games. They have played well offensively this season, scoring at least four goals in five of their last six games. They’ve done a great job on special teams, converting 26.7 percent of their power play opportunities. The Flames aren’t very good defensively and they struggled in recent games, giving up at least four goals in four of their last five games and will have a hard time slowing down the Bruins, so go with Boston to cover the money line. |
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11-10-22 | Senators v. Devils -180 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ottawa has dropped six straight games as their defensive zone play has been dismal, overshadowing what has been a prolific offensive attack. The Senators are winless on the road this season (0-4-0) and have dropped six straight games. Meanwhile, New Jersey has ripped off seven straight wins to climb to the top of the Metropolitan Division. Their youth movement has paid dividends and Vanecek has been solid between the pipes after coming over as a free agent in the offseason. New Jersey is 5-2-0 on home ice and are rolling right now. |
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11-10-22 | Towson v. Massachusetts -130 | 67-55 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Towson played just seven players in their opener and got outrebounded, which is a rare thing for that team under Pat Skerry. UMass has a much bigger team and they are much deeper. This should be a pretty close game early on because I don't expect Timberlake and Holden to go 2-for-17 again. However, UMass offers much more size and Fernandes will have a big game against the Tigers' backcourt, which lacks quickness. Ultimately, the Minutemen will wear down the Tigers in the paint with their size and own the boards. Martin should have UMass contending in the Atlantic 10 very quickly. |
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11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -150 | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers won’t blow the Lakers away, but I cannot back Purple-and-Gold to cover because of all their injury problems. The Lakers have arguably been awful so far this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They are scoring 104.2 points per 100 possessions (30th in the NBA) on 44.4% shooting from the field (26th) and 29.1% from downtown (30th). The Clippers are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Lakers, and six of those eight victories have come by six or more points. |
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11-09-22 | Pelicans v. Bulls +2 | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls are 5-3 with LaVine in the lineup and 4-1 at home with him available. The Pelicans played like a team that just wants to head home in their last game and will have to find a way to ratchet up their intensity in this game as well. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are just 4-6 ATS this year thus far while the Bulls are a more formidable 7-4-1 ATS this season. |
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11-09-22 | Penguins v. Capitals +119 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh enjoyed a 4-0-1 start to the season before its troubles began with a 6-3 setback against the Edmonton Oilers on Oct. 24. That result started a disastrous 0-6-1 run, marking the Penguins' longest winless stretch since Jan. 26-Feb. 8, 2006. To put that into context: A then-18-year-old Sidney Crosby was playing in his rookie season. Washington won three of the four meetings between the Metropolitan Division rivals last season. Ovechkin (one goal, four assists) and Kuznetsov (three goals, two assists) each had five points in the season series, while Crosby had four assists. |
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11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers +5.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Denver Nuggets have been mediocre on the road this season where they are only 2-3. The Pacers have been outstanding on their home court where they are 3-0 in their last three clashes including wins against good foes in the Heat and Pelicans within the last week. |
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11-09-22 | Mavs v. Magic +7.5 | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mavericks have not been good against the spread this season. They are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games overall, with the 1 being the push versus Orlando. Orlando, meanwhile, has been excellent against the spread, especially at home, where they are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games. They have played opponents tough, but they just haven't been able to convert them to Ws. Also, the Mavericks are 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings in Orlando. |
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11-08-22 | Predators v. Seattle Kraken -116 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both Nashville and Seattle are struggling to defend, though Martin Jones has turned the corner after a horrible start to the season. The Kraken are 5-1 in their previous six games overall, while the Predators have only won five of their last 17 games at any location. |
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11-08-22 | Oilers v. Lightning -163 | 3-2 | Loss | -163 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Edmonton is going to have their work cut out for them here with the second game of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. The Oilers entered Monday unbeaten on the road but facing a Lightning team that has seemingly found their stride is going to be a daunting task for them. Tampa Bay has been good with a 4-0-1 mark in their last five games and they are always tough at home. The Lightning are 3-1-1 on home ice this season and we know how dangerous Vasilevskiy is playing at the Amalie Arena. Give the edge to Tampa Bay as fatigue gets the better of the Oilers in crunch time. |
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11-08-22 | Blues v. Flyers +112 | 1-5 | Win | 112 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blues have lost six straight games and two of their last three road games. They have struggled offensively, scoring only 10 goals in their last six games. Even though the Flyers have also struggled in recent games, they continue to play good defense, giving up only six goals in their last three games. They’ve also played well on special teams, killing 82.1 percent of their penalties, and will keep St. Louis’ offense in check. The Flyers struggled offensively during their road trip, but they have played well at home where they scored seven goals in their last two games. They’ve also taken advantage of their power play opportunities, converting 20 percent of their chances. |
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11-08-22 | Flames v. Devils -131 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Devils look like one of the best teams in the league and look to once again overwhelm the Flames on both ends of the ice. The Devils, who average 3.67 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with speed on the wing. The Devils, who allow only 2.58 goals per game, should also limit the Flames with John Marino, Ryan Graves, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in all three zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Vitek Vanecek to make plenty of big saves. |
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11-08-22 | Coyotes v. Sabres -190 | 4-1 | Loss | -190 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Coyotes are looking to build off a recent win and pull off an upset on the road. The problem is that the Sabres are looking to bounce back from two rough losses and control this game from the opening puck drop. The Sabres, who average 4.08 goals per game, should find the back of the net at will with Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Sabres should also limit a Coyotes offense that is scoring only 2.82 goals per game with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and the rest of the unit stepping up and creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net. |
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11-08-22 | Rider +13.5 v. Providence | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Handicapping a game early in the season is a completely different process than later in the season. Returning experience is much more important in November, as cohesiveness is a huge part of a basketball game. Rider has plenty of that coming into the year, as four of its five starters are back from last year’s team. The Broncs were on fire down the stretch, making a run to the MAAC Tournament semifinals for the first time in a decade. They covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games, including seven of their final nine road games. Providence is replacing all five of its starters from last year, so Rider is the obvious choice as a large underdog. |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Spurs | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units The Nuggets have looked strong in their last couple of outings and very good so far this season. I expect them to extend their win streak to three and their series against the Spurs to 2-0. In their matchup on Saturday, the Nuggets were sinking a lot of their shots and giving themselves more scoring opportunities by dominating the boards. I expect the Nuggets to do the same on the road Monday. Hyland had a strong outing coming off the bench, scoring 24 points on the night with 17 points and five 2-pointers coming in the second half to help lift the lead for Denver. Jokic has always been a solid player for the Nuggets and has shown his dominance all over the court showing his ability to pull down boards while attacking the basket and shooting points. Based on the last outing and the dominant defensive and offensive outings, take the Nuggets. |
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11-07-22 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bulls | 97-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Toronto plays at a slow, but efficient pace, Chicago tends to play a bit faster. Therefore, it will be interesting to see who controls the tempo of the game. I believe Toronto can cover the spread at the least, and Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 6-1 in their last seven. Meanwhile, Chicago is 2-6 ATS playing on zero days of rest and 3-8 ATS in their previous eleven contests while playing at home. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens -122 v. Saints | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ve seen Baltimore blow double-digit leads in each of their three losses this season. The plus side for the Ravens is that those defeats came at home and this game is on the road. New Orleans is middle of the road defensively but they don’t get turnovers as they are a -9 in the takeaway/giveaway department this season. Baltimore, meanwhile, is a +6 in that category and isn’t afraid to hammer with the run game on offense, as Tampa Bay learned last week. The Ravens are the better team right now and that, coupled with the fact that the game is on the road, gives them the edge in this contest. Add in New Orleans’ 2-8 ATS record against opponents coming off a Thursday win, and it will be no surprise to us to find them fall to 0-5 ATS in its last five games under the Monday Night lights. |
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11-07-22 | George Mason v. Auburn -9.5 | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units George Mason is undoubtedly improved from last year and has upset some high-quality teams in the past but not teams that play at this fast of a pace. This game will be a true test of English's self-professed commitment to utilize his bench to save his starters. Auburn has more depth, much more size and has already shown that they will once again be among the country's top teams in forcing turnovers after giving even teams with pro players fits. Auburn, under Pearl, isn't in a position to rebuild but simply retool. George Mason will be a better team later in the season but it will take them time to get the new pieces to earn English's trust. This one should be a one-sided Auburn affair. |
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11-07-22 | Blues v. Bruins -178 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bruins are having a great season with their offense scoring 4.17 goals per game including 21 goals in the last five games. David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron have scored 12 goals and 17 assists while defenseman Hampus Lindholm is adding four goals and nine assists from the point but the rest of the offense has also been great. Taylor Hall, Jake DeBrusk, and David Krejci have combined for 11 goals and 15 assists while Charlie Coyle, Nick Foligno, and Pavel Zacha have added 10 goals and 11 assists to the backend of the forward unit, giving the Bruins multiple great forward lines. Additionally, goaltender Linus Ullmark is having a great season in the net with a .929 save percentage and a 2.16 goals-against average on 283 shots. |
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11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have won three straight games by eight or fewer points, outlasting the lowly Houston Rockets twice in the process. Hereof, I’m expecting to see another close battle when the Jazz come to town. Utah just found a way to drop 130 points on the Lakers, and the Jazz should have enough firepower to deal with the Clippers’ D. I’ve mentioned Utah’s selfless approach, so give me the visitors and points. Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and 7-3 ATS in its last ten encounters with the Western Conference. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight contests overall, though they’ve covered in five straight home games against the Jazz. |
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11-06-22 | Rams +3 v. Bucs | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sean McVay has done his best work on the NFL road where he is 10-5 ATS as a dog, including 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when taking more than 2 points. In addition, he stands 10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS in skirmishes against the NFC South, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog. And lest we forget, defending Super Bowl champions who find themselves taking points with a losing record check in at 18-7-2 ATS since 1980. Toss in the Rams’ 8-1 ATS record in this series, and their 4-0 ATS mark versus foes coming off a Thursday home game. |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Smith actually enters this fray sporting a 107.2 QB Rating (3rd best in the league), while Murray’s woes continue with an 85.3 QB Rating (20th overall). Because of it, the Seahawks are taking minimal points in this game as opposed to the touchdown they were scheduled to receive prior to the start of the season. One of the reasons is the Seahawks are 3-0 SUATS the last three games. In those contests they allowed an average 256 YPG, a quantum leap over the 410 YPG they surrendered over the course of their fi rst fi ve games of the season. We realize Pete Carroll’s troops will be on their way to London after this contest but knowing that Arizona is 1-7 ATS at home with division revenge, 1-7 ATS as home favorites of 5 or fewer points, and 2-7 ATS in the first of three straight division contests, we can only look one way in this fray. Take the points. |
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11-06-22 | Vikings -165 v. Commanders | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Vikes are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last fi ve games in this series, or that Thor is a powerful 8-3 ATS against NFC East foes coming off consecutive wins. Nope. It’s more like Viking QB Kirk Cousins brings a lofty 8-2 SUATS away career mark into this game with a winning record and facing .500 or fewer foes, including 5-0 SUATS as a favorite of 2 or more points. The Commanders’ are 6-18 SU and 8-16 ATS in games before Philadelphia fights. To cap it off .500 teams in Game Nine of the season, coming off consecutive wins, are 3-22 SU and 4-20-1 ATS when not favored by more than 2 points. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers -154 v. Falcons | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Atlanta is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS after scoring 30-plus points in their previous game, including 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS at home. Yes, the Chargers have struggled with QB Justin Herbert’s rib injury but there is nothing like a week off during the season to help mend the healing. The Bolts are 5-0 ATS non-conference road games as well as 5-1 ATS when coming off a SU home favorite loss. In closing consider that the Atlanta Falcons are 2-20-1 ATS at home during the regular season when coming off a home win.. |
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11-06-22 | Raiders -130 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Mismatch of the Month Rating: 5 Units NFL road teams coming off a shutout loss – read: the Raiders – are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS since 1993 when facing foes coming off consecutive losses. Coupled with the fact that NFL teams returning home without rest after playing in London are 0-3 SUATS when coming off a SU favorite loss makes the red-faced Black and Silver the right side in this contest today, even though the Raiders failed to cross midfield until the 2:00 minute warning in last week’s embarrassing 24-0 loss at New Orleans. In the process, they were blanked for the first time since 2014 when, ironically, rookie QB Derek Carr suffered a 52-0 whitewash loss to the Rams. Carr bounced back the next game with a 24-13 win over the 49ers when he completed 22-of-28 passes for 3 TDs, 0 INTs and a Passer Rating of 140.2 – his best effort of the season. Jacksonville is on a 0-5 SUATS losing slide, and just 1-9 ATS at home versus AFC West opposition. Finally, the Raiders are 10-1 ATS away during the regular season versus AFC South foes. |
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11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves -7.5 | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Minnesota has high expectations this season and need a win. After losing three straight games, I expect the Timberwolves to see red and be ready to dominant the young Rockets. The Timberwolves will be playing for the second night in a row, but they did not have to worry about travel. Houston is 0-6 straight up on the road this season with five of the losses coming by at least eight points or more. I have to back Minnesota here against a Houston team that still has a lot to learn about road life in the NBA, and how to win. |
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11-05-22 | Phillies v. Astros -140 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros will turn to Valdez in this spot and he will be up for the challenge. Valdez has been the Astros most consistent pitcher in the playoffs and a strong argument could be made for the lefty in the Cy Young race. He is 7-4 at home this season and has struck out 10.42 batters per nine innings at home. Valdez is facing a Phillies lineup that has gone silent at the worst possible time. They are hitting just .100 in the last two and a half games and are striking out far too often. Valdez dominated this lineup with his curveball in game 2 and expect to see a heavy dose of that again in this one. The Phillies have seemingly leveled off and Rob Thomson, who has masterfully manipulated his bullpen throughout these playoffs, may be running out of bullets back there. Wheeler has to give the Phillies more than six innings in this game or his team will not have a chance. |
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11-05-22 | BYU v. Boise State -8 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Things have surely changed in Boiseland, with the home team moving to the fore, which is in direct opposition to the former norm in games involving the Broncos, which saw the visitor as the constant play, rewarding the "smart money" movers. Check the visitor with ATS logs of 8-4 in '15, 9-4 in '16, 10-3 in '17, & 9-3 in '21, regardless of the spread. This season, however the host in Boise games stands at 5-1-1 ATS. Not only that, but note Boise at a 174-56 pt edge in its last 5 home games, while ranking 2nd in total "O". Cougars are on runs of 0-7 & 3-13 ATS of late. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -7.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tennessee defeated two other undefeated teams this season and they’ll look to complete a three-game SUATS hat trick here. Unfortunately, they are 0-5 SUATS versus 7-0 or greater opponents. Granted, the Vols lead the SEC in turnover margin (+8) and bring a 5-1 ATS mark into this battle royale as conference road dogs of 10 or less points, but as we’ve seen time and again in games of this magnitude, defense rules. That’s where Georgia brings the better of it, by 10 points and 131 YPG. Meanwhile, the Dawgs raced out to a 28-3 lead before surviving a second-half scare in last week’s 42-20 win over Florida. They are 15-0 SU after ‘Cocktail Parties’, including 8-0 SU and 7-0 ATS when favored by fewer than 20 points. As expected, the Dawgs own an exceptionally glossy stats dossier: No. 1 in the land in Red Zone Offense and No. 2 in Red Zone Defense (think about that), as well as No. 3 in Pass Defense Efficiency, No. 4 in Time of Possession (Vols are No. 124) and Overall Defense (Vols are No. 82). They are also allowing less than a point per game in the first quarter and Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU and 30-13 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 20 points, including 8-0 SU versus undefeated opposition. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 80 h 36 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units We will find out if the maligned OU defense will continue their Cyclones form or revert to the team that was strafed for 41, 55, 49 and 42 points prior to visiting Ames, Iowa last weekend. If the Sooners can’t stop Baylor frosh RB Richard Reese, who despite his 5’9” stature, has 12 TDs and 791 ground yards, the game will be a Bear market. Oklahoma is a depressing 0-5 ATS at home versus a team coming off consecutive SUATS wins. To cap it off, Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference dog versus an opponent coming off a SUATS win. |
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11-05-22 | Marshall -165 v. Old Dominion | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units ODU is 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS versus teams .400 or above. Marshall hit the inevitable speed bump last week versus Coastal Carolina after taking down previously unbeaten James Madison. Oh, they also beat Notre Dame in South Bend this year, too. Defensively the Herd reins in opponents, holding Coastal and JMU to season-low yardages. You can’t make the same claim for ODU. They surrender on average 159 more yards per game than Marshall, who’s ranked 8th in the NCAA at 283 YPG. Yes, we know Marshall is in last place in the Fun Belt East, one game back of ODU, but we think the Herd will rumble, young man rumble over the Monarchs. |
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11-05-22 | Iowa +5 v. Purdue | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 77 h 30 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Boilermaker head coach Jeff Brohm has carved out a ‘good dog, bad favorite’ personality and we’re not about to go against that today, not after Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point dogs at Iowa last season, meaning a major payback is in order today. With the Boilers now a lousy 1-4 ATS at home in this series, and HC of Iowa going 24-14 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS when taking single digits and coming off a SUATS win. To seal the deal, Iowa is 12-5 ATS as a dog with revenge when coming off a SUATS win under head coach Kirk Ferentz, including 8-1 ATS when not coming off a spread win of 13 or more points. |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon State snapped a lengthy drought when the Beavers entered the college football rankings this week for the first time since 2013. Currently out of the rankings is 6-2 Washington, fighting through a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS slump. Washington is 0-4 ATS with rest, 0-3 ATS on Weekdays the last two years, and 3-12 ATS off 4+ ATS losses. Oregon State is 15-4 ATS in this series, including 11-2 ATS with revenge, and 7-0 ATS off a home win of 21 or more points. Even better, coach Smith chips in with a solid 8-2 ATS record as a conference road dog with revenge |
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11-04-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Mavs | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have covered the spread in five of their last six games, including four of their last five road games. They have also won nine of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents. Doncic is going to put up big numbers, but Toronto’s balance and defense will be too much to handle in the end. |
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11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards -150 | 128-86 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Given the troubles the Nets are dealing with right now concerning Kyrie and a new coach, I just don't see the Nets being able to put together four quarters of basketball to win on the road against a good team. The Nets are not a good defensive team, nor do they have any size, and this will be a problem against a team like the Wizards, which has multiple scorers and a decided-size advantage. The Nets are too distracted right now and it seems like things will continue to go sideways until some major shakeup happens. |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans -3 v. Lakers | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Anthony Davis sits out Wednesday’s game, the Pelicans will dominate in the paint. New Orleans ranks seventh in the league in offensive rebounds (12.5 per 100 possessions) and third in assists (27.8), so I’m expecting the Pelicans to control the game and cover a 3.5-point spread. Without Davis, the Lakers’ frontcourt is thin and will struggle to contain Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas. If Davis suits up, we should see a tight battle for all 48 minutes. Last season, the Pels went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Lakers. New Orleans is 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this time around, and the Pelicans have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their previous six showings as favorites away from home. |
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11-02-22 | Astros +100 v. Phillies | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Astros have a multi-time Cy Young winner ready to go on four days rest for Wednesday but Dusty Baker is confident in Javier. The numbers back up Baker's confidence. Javier has an impeccable 0.32 ERA in his last five starts and keeps the ball in the yard. Meanwhile, the Astros get their second look at Nola in the series. They hit him fairly hard in game one and looked comfortable at the plate against him. The Phillies have been outstanding at home but will face arguably the Astros best pitcher in the last month. Baker has his dominant bullpen rested and at his disposal in this near-must-win game. |
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11-02-22 | Hawks v. Knicks -130 | 112-99 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks are at the end of a challenging five-game road trip. They have struggled in their last two games, losing by eight points to the Bucks, and were clobbered 139-109 against the Raptors on Monday night. The Knicks are home after a road trek and have yet to lose at MSG where they are a perfect 3-0. Furthermore, the Hawks are going to have trouble against an outstanding defense. The Knicks are limiting foes to only 107.7 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 6th while the Hawks are conceding 109.8. I expect the Knicks to out-rebound the Hawks as well. Atlanta has a negative rebounding margin and has been out-rebounded by a large margin in two straight games. The Knicks rank 2nd in NBA in rebounds per game. |
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11-01-22 | Wolves v. Suns -165 | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has plenty of talent, including their twin tower look of Gobert and Towns in the low block. The problem is that they have sputtered shooting from the perimeter, which was a strength for them a season ago. Trying to make the adjustment with guys like Malik Beasley missing from last season’s team takes time. Phoenix has played well, even without Crowder in the mix, as the nucleus of the team is still intact. The Suns have been a dangerous team the last couple of seasons and are a two-point overtime loss at Portland away from having a perfect record on the season. Playing at home against a Minnesota team that is still putting all the pieces together works in their favor. Back the Suns at home in this contest. |
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11-01-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Flames -220 | 5-4 | Loss | -220 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has carried the Flames but the defense has also stepped up, allowing only 2.86 goals per game. Michael Stone and Nikita Zadorov have led the top two pairings but the rest of the defense has also stepped up with Rasmus Andersson, MacKenzie Weegar, and the rest of the unit creating turnovers in all three zone and limiting shots on the net. In addition, Jacob Markstrom has stepped up in the net with a .903 save percentage and a 2.60 goals-against average on 144 shots. |
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11-01-22 | Predators v. Oilers -157 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oilers are having a great season led by an offense that is scoring 3.78 goals per game including 18 goals in the last four games. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have scored 13 goals and 21 assists to lead the top two lines but the entire offense has been great. Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evander Kane have scored 13 goals and 17 assists while defensemen Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie have added three goals and six assists from the point to overwhelm opposing defenses. |
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11-01-22 | Bruins +109 v. Penguins | 6-5 | Win | 109 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bruins and Penguins are heading in opposite directions at the moment with the Penguins losers of four straight and the Bruins winners of five straight. Boston currently leads the NHL in goals per game and is also #2 in goals against average and 4th in save percentage. The Penguins are 11th in save percentage and 21st in goals allowed. Boston should have Marchand available in this one which will strengthen their top two lines and make the Bruins' specialty units even better. Marchand makes the second-best penalty-killing unit even better and really gives life to what has been the 13th-best power-play unit. Boston produces a ton of shots on net and should roll against a Penguins team that is floundering right now. |
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11-01-22 | Astros -118 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he Astros have absolutely pounded left-handed starters this season with a 42-12 record against them. In their one look at Suarez this season, just under a month ago, they had three home runs and six overall in just three innings. Suarez has made effective appearances out of the pen in the playoffs but struggled in his start. He walked five batters in his appearance against Atlanta as a starter. If he can't find the zone in this one, he will be out of the game quickly. Expect Phillies manager Rob Thomson to have a quick hook in this game with his left-hander. If Suarez doesn't have it early, we will see Zach Eflon and Brad Hand very early in this one. Javier has been lights out down the stretch and solid on the road all season with sub 3.00 ERA. The Astros will take full advantage of a favorable pitching matchup and win this one comfortably |
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10-31-22 | Rockets +9.5 v. Clippers | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Houston Rockets vs LA Clippers. The NBA pick for this game is the LA Clippers. The Rockets struggled to start the season 1-5 but are 4-2 ATS. Expect the trend to spill over in this contest as they fall to the Clippers but will cover the nut in the process. LA has failed to cover the number in each of its last four. LA has a strong defense which is sixth in points allowed, but the Clippers are next to last or 29th in scoring at 102.6 points per game. |
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10-31-22 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | 13-32 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bengals have won two straight and four of the last five, while allowing an average of 17.5 points per game in the four victories and allowing just 19 points in the one loss. Cleveland has struggled the last four weeks, losing each of the four and the Browns' defense has been its weak spot. During Cleveland’s current four-game losing streak, the Browns are allowing an average of 28.5 points per game. Joe Burrow is averaging 299.6 yards per game passing with 15 touchdowns. Cleveland is tough on the ground with Nick Chubb but quarterback Jacoby Brissett has just six touchdowns and has thrown five interceptions, which has made Cleveland too one-dimensional with its running game. |
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10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 76ers haven't been as impressive to start this season. They are now (3-4), as they have continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the 19th-highest adjusted defensive rating in the NBA. They are also allowing their opponents to shoot 46.4% from the floor, which is the 14th-highest percentage allowed. The Wizards are currently shooting better than anyone in the league, as they have the highest shooting percentage from the floor. |
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10-31-22 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -168 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units The Hurricanes are off to a strong start to the season with their offense scoring 3.25 goals per game. Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov have scored 12 goals and eight assists to lead the top line but the rest of the offense has also been great. Jordan Martinook, Stefan Noesen, and Seth Jarvis have combined for four goals and seven assists while defensemen Brent Burns and Brady Skjei have added three goals and eight assists from the point to overwhelm opposing defenses. |
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10-30-22 | Nuggets -160 v. Lakers | 110-121 | Loss | -160 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers own the lowest-scoring offense in the NBA, averaging 97.0 points per 100 possessions. They are dead last in the NBA in both field goal percentage (41.6%) and 3-point percentage (23.7%), too. On the other side of the ball, the Lakers are surrendering 104.9 points per 100 possessions (2nd in the league) on 44.5% shooting from the field (7th) and 32.6% from downtown (also 7th). |
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10-30-22 | Packers +11 v. Bills | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rodgers is 5-3 SUATS in his NFL career when the Packers are coming off three straight losses, including 3-2 SU and 4-1 SUATS in games in which Green Bay is not favored. We also know Rodgers is 40-15 SU and 33-21-1 ATS in his career during October, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of more than 2 points. He is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in games with a losing record when facing .750 or greater opponents. Rodgers is also 22-34-1 SU and 32-23-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, with the 8.5-points he took at Seattle in the 2019 playoffs a benchmark high. On the flip side, his counterpart Josh Allen has faced the Packers once in his NFL career, a 22-0 loss at Lambeau Field in 2018. However, the Bills own the league’s No. 1-ranked offense and defense, making it as tough a one-two combo as there is the NFL these days. However, with Rodgers 7-0 SUATS versus rested foes coming off a SUATS win, and 10-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career with a win percentage of less than .666 when facing a foe with a win percentage of greater than .750, we’ll go with the pack. To finish it off consider that playing on any NFL Sunday night non-division dog of more than 8 points versus a foe coming off a SUATS win is 18-2 ATS since 1980. |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons +7.5 | 114-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good scheduling spot for Detroit, as it has had several days off and is playing at home. Golden State is on the backend of a road back-to-back, making this a difficult situation for the Warriors to put together a complete performance. Some of their stars are starting to age, which makes the second game of a back-to-back even tougher. They have not been good enough defensively to be worth wagering on as a large favorite in this spot. |