Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-19-21 | Golden Knights -140 v. Islanders | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden Knights have won 7 of their last 8 games and they are finally healthy. Matt Barzal and Ryan Pulock are out and Kyle Palmieri could miss this game too for the Isles. The Isles have just 2 home wins this season and just 3 wins in their last 10 games over. The Knights are clicking right now and *knock on wood* they've avoided a COVID outbreak so far on this road trip. Take the Knights on the road. |
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12-19-21 | Fairfield +5.5 v. Massachusetts | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stags have been impressive so far this season. They are 9-1 ATS including 7-0 ATS on the road. The Minutemen have a terrible defense. Kenpom ranks them as 318th best defense in the nation. They are allowing 78.5 PPG on 48.5 percent from the field against low tier offenses. The Stags are the better team. They should be favored. I expect the Stags to have an easy time offensively and cover the spread (and maybe win straight up). |
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12-19-21 | Titans +1 v. Steelers | 13-19 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh has been outscored 78-16 in the first half of its past four games. If the Steelers start slowly again, they'll have a hard time coming back against Tennessee's above-average defense. Bud Dupree has been activated and will face his former team. Look for Tennessee to run the ball effectively with D'Onta Foreman -- the Steelers rank 30th in rush defense per DVOA -- as the Titans improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven as underdogs. |
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12-18-21 | Oilers v. Seattle Kraken +100 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oilers snapped their losing streak in their last game but they will be missing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Duncan Keith tonight and they are just 7-5-0 on the road. Kraken have won Chris Driedger’s last 3 starts and he has allowed 1 goal or fewer in 3 of his last 4 games. Kraken will be without Yanni Gourde, Riley Sheahan and Colin Blackwell but I think they should have success in front of Dreidger. Stuart Skinner is starting for the Oilers and he has lost 3 of his last 4 starts. Take the Kraken at home. |
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12-18-21 | Baylor -6.5 v. Oregon | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears are the number one team in the country and for good reason. They are running through their opponents as they have an average margin of victory of 26.8 PPG. The Bears are 7-2 ATS so far this season. On the other side, the Ducks haven’t been good this season. They were ranked 13th coming into this season but they are just 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS. In their one game as an underdog (5 points), they lost by 29 to Houston. Their road doesn’t get any easier today. They’re outmatched in this battle. Take the Bears to win big. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall +4 v. UL-Lafayette | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Napier went a sparkling 40-13 in his tenure there, which if he replicates at the University of Florida, will make him a nearly Spurrier like hero. (The Head Ball Coach will always be #1 in Gainesville). Still, we have concerns, such as a flat 0-4 ATS in the last four bowl games, and 2-6 ATS mark when playing off rest. Meantime, Marshall is quite the post-season juggernaut, going 12-3 SUATS in bowl games since 1998 and 4-0 SUATS when coming off double-digit losses. Herd QB Grant Wells can fling the ball around the building quite well, ranking 12th in passing yards this season with 3,453 yards and 16 TDs, and if that’s not working, the spectacular Rasheen Ali can take over a game. |
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12-18-21 | Utah State v. Iowa OVER 151.5 | 75-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These are two of the best offenses in the country. Kenpom ranks the Hawkeyes as the 4th best offense and the Aggies as the 46th best offense. This has allowed the over to cash at high rates for both of these teams. Six of the Hawkeyes seven home games and all six of the Aggies games away from home have gone over the total. This game is going to be played at an extremely fast pace and go over this total. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 28 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | 17-27 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units It looks like a Saturday shootout is in order this week, as the hottest two offenses in the league will be going at each other at Lucas Oil Stadium. That means the over in this week’s PATRIOTS @ COLTS game as we head to late-season Saturday action. In the last two months of play (7 weeks), the host COLTS are the #1 offense in the league (averaging 33.1 ppg) while the visiting PATRIOTS are right behind (#2) at 32.1 ppg. That’s a good start for us. But let’s not forget the historically high-scoring nature of this series as well. The Pats and Colts have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last 7 meetings vs each other, with a gaudy average of 64.4 combined PPG! Consider as well that since 2010, NFL games have gone 8-1 O/U when BOTH teams are off their Bye (COLTS / PATS), and the OU line is 46 or less points. |
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12-18-21 | Devils v. Red Wings -119 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Wings have struggled lately losing 4 of their last 5 games but 3 of those games were on the road. They are significantly better at home at 10-3-2 on the season while the Devils are significantly worse on the road at 3-7-2. The Devils have also lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. It looks like both backups will be in with Jon Gillies and Thomas Greiss so that should be a wash. Both teams are missing key players, Robby Fabbri and Alex Nedeljkovic for the Red Wings and Nico Hischier and PK Subban for the Devils. Take the Red Wings at home. |
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12-18-21 | Warriors v. Raptors -8.5 | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors are basically punting this game. After playing Friday, they have decided to rest Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. and Andre Iguodala. That’s in addition to Jordan Poole being in the health and safety protocols. They are going to have a difficult time generating points with the likes of Damion Lee, Gary Payton Jr. and Nemanja Bjelica leading the way. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State v. Utah State +7.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Typically, Oregon State is tough on the Mountain West, cashing in on 6 of the last seven skirmishes. We have backed OSU many times this season, so why are we turning our backs on them this time, you rightfully ask? Since 1984, bowl favorites who won just two games the season before are a heartburn-inducing 4-11 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a defeat. Finally, consider that PAC-12 bowl teams coming off a win are 1-21 ATS since 2015. |
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12-18-21 | Senators +110 v. Flyers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers had won 3 games in a row before losing in a shootout to the beat-up Canadiens their last game. They are playing much better, but they are still 5-6-2 at home. Carter Hart is also out tonight with an illness. Senators have sneakily won 5 of their last 7 games and Anton Forsberg has won 5 of his last 6 starts. The Senators have won 3 of their last 4 games on the road. Forsberg hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of his last 4 games. Take the Senators while they’re hot. |
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12-18-21 | Marquette v. Xavier -9.5 | 71-80 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was surprised to see this line so low. My model makes this line 14.5, and thats with some rather conservative estimation. There's a legitimate chance that this finishes closer to 20 than it does to 10. The distribution of expected results is heavily on the side of a Xavier cover. Trust the model and take the home favorite to get it done. |
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12-18-21 | UAB +6.5 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cougars come into this one 9-16-1 ATS against teams who surrender 24.5 PPG or less. Coach Sitake is 6-17 ATS as a favorite in games where the Cougs give up 21.5 PPG or more, and a frightening 1-11 ATS in the last 12. Motivation is HUGE in these smaller bowl games, and we believe UAB’s will be loaded with it. Coach Bill Clark literally rose this program from the dead a few years ago, and the Blazers are a tough out against the giants, going 7-2 ATS versus foes .800 or better, including 5-1 ATS as the underdog. Not only that, the Blazers come from Conference USA, which will be undergoing massive changes soon (like it or not), but one steady stat says CUSA squadrons are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS when coming off a win, and 7-0 ATS when coming off an ATS win. |
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12-18-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois -19 | 54-71 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love betting on Western Illinois almost as much as I love betting against Eastern Illinois. My model has a huge edge, indicating that this should be a 24 point win for the Leathernecks. I even saw Erik Haslam's model has this at 40 points. I think that must be a bug in his system, but there's a non-zero chance it's a real projection. EIU is that bad. They lost to Missouri by 28 and I think Western Illinois is a better team. Lay the points. |
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12-18-21 | CS Bakersfield +14 v. Colorado | 46-60 | Push | 0 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm returning about three points of value on this game for Bakersfield. My model is indicating that Colorado should only be favored by ten points rather than thirteen. The Buffaloes are 1-8-1 ATS at home this season and have looked disappointing. Colorado is 8-3 SU but have only once beaten a team by more than 13 and that was against lowly Maine. Cal State Bakersfield should keep this close enough to cover, take the points. |
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12-17-21 | Lakers v. Wolves -2.5 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As of this writing, we know that the Lakers are without Russell Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, Avery Bradley and Dwight Howard in COVID protocols, although apparently Malik Monk is out of them. I'll take the fully healthy Timberwolves (at least healthy as of this writing) at home. The Wolves are 5-2 ATS in their past seven as favorites and will be amped up to face LeBron. |
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12-17-21 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies come into this matchup on a hot streak, winning nine of their last 10 games. All nine of those wins came by at least seven points, as well. Meanwhile, the Kings are dealing with an outbreak of COVID-19 that is expected to sideline De’Aaron Fox, Terence Davis, Marvin Bagley III and Alex Len. That’s in addition to Richaun Holmes (eye) being listed as doubtful and Tyrese Haliburton (back) listed as questionable. This could get ugly for the Kings in a hurry. |
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12-17-21 | Hornets +3 v. Blazers | 116-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s difficult to read too much into the Hornets performance lately given how decimated their team has been by an outbreak of COVID-19. Their situation is starting to improve, though, with both Terry Rozier and Mason Plumlee back in the fold. Even LaMelo Ball, who is listed as questionable, could make his return for this game. Portland, on the other hand, has lost 10 of their last 11 games with their only win coming against the rebuilding Pistons. Six of those 10 losses came at home. With CJ McCollum (lung) still out, it’s going to be tough for the Trail Blazers to pull out a win. |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's -144 v. San Diego State | 53-63 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Easily the game of the night and it's important to note that San Diego State isn't the home team or I wouldn't take the Gaels -- it's a neutral site in Phoenix. I consider these teams about even, although KenPom has Saint Mary's eight spots higher. The difference for me is SDSU is again without sophomore guard Lamont Butler for the third consecutive game. Solid all-around player as in about 24 minutes per game, he averages 9.7 points (47.1 percent from deep), 2.1 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State UNDER 118.5 | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams have been cashing the under consistently. The under has cashed in all five of the Gaels games away from home and the under has cashed in four of the Aztecs five home games this season. These teams have elite defenses. Kenpom ranks the Gaels as the 8th best defense and the Aztecs as the 11th best defense. Additionally, both of these teams play with no urgency. This will be a defensive battle from the tip. Take the under. |
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12-17-21 | Cal Poly +15 v. Fresno State | 48-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread is too high for this total. The Mustangs have covered each of their last four games. These teams play at such a slow pace that covering this spread sounds near impossible. The Bulldogs offense has been struggling. The Mustangs will be able to keep this game close enough to cover this spread. |
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12-17-21 | North Dakota State v. Pacific | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Frankly, I think Pacific should be about a four-point favorite. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Tigers winning by 11. That seems a bit off. It's the first-ever meeting between these schools. Pacific has been great defensively, holding opponents to just 41.9 percent from the field. North Dakota State is 1-4 in true road games. The Bison have used five different starting lineups already. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven. |
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12-17-21 | Stars v. Blues +101 | 1-4 | Win | 101 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Blues are dealing with plenty of injuries right now but they continue to win. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and 3 of those wins were without their top 2 goaltenders. Jordan Binnington returned from the COVID list but Charlie Lindgren has been hot so I wouldn’t be surprised if they ride him. The Blues are 10-3-2 at home while the Stars are 4-8-1 on the road. The Stars have lost 4 straight games and they just lost their last game to the Blues 4-1 in Dallas. I like the Blues to stay hot at home with a cheap price to sweep this home and home. |
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12-17-21 | Capitals v. Jets -110 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Caps returned many players from the COVID list in their last game but since they are playing in Canada, those players are not allowed to play yet. So Nic Dowd, Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Garnet Hathaway and Evgeny Kuznetsov will all be out for the Caps tonight in COVID protocols. Tom Wilson could be out again too after missing the past two games. The Jets have struggled losing 3 of their last 4 games but they are rested and they are much better at home at 9-5-1. The Jets will be without Blake Wheeler, but this is still a very good price against half the Caps regulars. Take the Jets at home. |
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12-17-21 | South Alabama v. Tarleton St | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams just played on Tuesday where the Jaguars won by seven points. The Texans are terrible offensively. Kenpom ranks them as the 280th best offense. They average just 61.6 PPG on 40.5 percent shooting. They are also one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country. They rank 354th in three point percentage and 346th in three’s made per game. The Jaguars will be able to score too many points for the Texans to keep up with. Lay the points. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois +11 | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams returning to the same bowl in which they lost last year are 0-5 SUATS since 2004. For another, they’re taking on a Northern Illinois bunch that engineered a rags-to-riches story of their own in 2021. After head coach Thomas Hammock took over the Huskies, they went winless (0-6) during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but shook off a 1-2 start this year with an 8-2 finish, blasting Kent State to claim their second MAC championship since 2014 (NIU recently signed Hammock to a contract extension through 2026). The sled dogs pulled more upsets (6) than any FBS team this season, and finished No. 1 in the nation in 4th Down Conversion Percentage, and No. 9 in Red Zone Offense. Yes, we realize Northern Illinois has gone 0-6 SUATS in bowl games since 2012, but consider that FBS bowl teams who were winless the previous season are 5-1 ATS. The bottom line is the Huskies are overjoyed to be here, while Coastal Carolina – with a QB that is less than 100% – might not be. |
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12-17-21 | St Bonaventure v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bonnies have been struggling with the absence of their best player, Kyle Lofton. Lofton is a big loss for the Bonnies as he was playing 39 minutes per game. The Bonnies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games with Lofton missing their last three. Now they have to face the Hokies who have been playing really well this season. They are 7-4 SU and ATS this season including 5-1 SU and ATS at home. Kenpom ranks the Hokies 31st in Division I. The Hokies will take advantage of the Bonnies struggles and cover this small spread. |
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12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns -9 | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Devin Booker is expected back Thursday and DeAndre Ayton is playing. While the Suns have been effective without Booker, they become one of the best teams in the NBA with him, along with Golden State and Utah. The Wizards are having some problems lately. They’ve lost seven of their last nine (1-8 ATS). Take the Suns to cover. |
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12-16-21 | Blue Jackets v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This total has risen from 6 to my magic number of 6.5 because the Oilers are starting backup Stuart Skinner over Mikko Koskinen in net, but I don't care. Offensively, Edmonton has scored two goals or fewer in five straight games. Columbus generally isn't the type of team to score more than three goals. |
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12-16-21 | Blue Jackets +185 v. Oilers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oilers have now lost 6 straight games, and they didn’t score more than 1 goal in 4 of those games. I see no reason why the Oilers should be -200 favorites tonight the way they have been playing. The Blue Jackets struggle on the road but they are very capable live dogs. They went up 3-0 in the first period before blowing the lead to the Kraken in their last game, so I think if they can get a lead, they will be much more focused to finish it out. In the last 7 days, road underdogs are actually 16-14-2 (50.0%) so let’s see if we can catch this trend against a team who has lost 6 in a row. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out. |
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12-16-21 | Sabres v. Wild OVER 6 | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has actually been very good for the Sabres since being called up not allowing more than 3 goals in a game. However, he will face the highest scoring team in the league in Minnesota tonight as they are averaging 4.5 goals per game at home. Wild overs are 11-1 at home while Sabres are 8-4 to the over on the road. Cam Talbot is starting for the Wild and he allowed 6 goals in his last outing, I like this over. |
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12-16-21 | Bruins +115 v. Islanders | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brad Marchand is out for the Bruins, but Matthew Barzal and Ryan Pulock are still out for the Islanders. These two teams met in the Conference Semifinals last season and this is their first meeting since, so there will be plenty of bad blood. Linus Ullmark has won 4 of his last 5 games and he hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of them. Road underdogs have actually won at a 50.0% rate in the last 7 days so hopefully the trend continues. Take the value in the Bruins. |
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12-16-21 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brad Marchand and Matthew Barzal will be out for this game and those are big losses for both teams. The Islanders average just 2.13 goals per game while the Bruins average just 2.76 goals per game. 7 of the last 8 games for the Bruins have come in with this under, and the Islanders average an even lower 1.6 goals per game at home. Linus Ullmark has been very good for the Bruins. This should be a defensive battle with both top offensive players injured, take the under. |
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12-16-21 | Flyers -150 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cayden Primeau is expected to start for the Canadiens tonight and he is 0-2-0 with a 4.8 GAA this season. The Canadiens have also lost 7 straight games and they are still missing a bunch of key players. The Flyers have now won 3 straight games and they have some momentum after their extended losing streak. They have scored at least 4 goals in each of their past 3 wins, I expect the scoring to continue tonight. |
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12-16-21 | Golden Knights v. Devils UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I understand why this total has moved to 6, but New Jersey simply can't score right now and Devils netminder Mackenzie Blackwood has been way better at home (1.98 GAA) so he could slow a potent Knights offense. Vegas is expected to go with backup Laurent Brossoit (2.66 GAA, .911 SV), but he actually has better numbers than No. 1 Robin Lehner. We might push here, but I don't think lose barring a 3-3 tie at the end of regulation. |
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12-16-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Maryland-Baltimore County -2 | 62-51 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Definitely don't love the board today -- but this number has come down enough where we will roll with the Retrievers at home. They enter on a three-game skid but all away and against better teams than UNC Greensboro, which is 5-0 at home but 1-2 on the road and in neutral site games. The Retrievers are the top scoring team in the America East at 78.2 ppg and also lead in three-point field goals made (93), free-throw percentage (80.3) and assists per game (13.5). It's a veteran team with four seniors and a junior starting. The Retrievers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven as favorites. |
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12-15-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Ducks -152 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kraken picked up a win last night in San Jose and head to Anaheim for the second game of a back-to-back. The Ducks have been off since Sunday, so they have been waiting at home after their long road trip. The Ducks have won 3 of their last 4 games while the Kraken have lost 4 of 6. Phillip Grubauer has lost 5 of his last 6 games and he has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 straight games. I think this is a tough assignment for Grubauer to turn it around on the road on a back-to-back. Both John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have been good this season so I don’t mind who is starting for the Ducks. |
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12-15-21 | New Mexico State +8.5 v. Washington State | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread is too high. I make these teams about even with the absence of Cougars center Dishon Jackson who is out with a thumb injury. The Aggies have won each of their last three games, all of which were on the road. The Cougars are coming off of a straight up loss in a home game where they were favored by six. They should struggle again in this game. The Aggies will be able to keep this game close enough to cover the spread. |
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12-15-21 | Morehead State v. Xavier -15.5 | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am very high on this Xavier team. The Musketeers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. The Eagles are not a good team. They are just 1-4 ATS in their five games as an underdog including 0-3 ATS as a double digit underdog. The Musketeers are a much better team. They have beaten up on bad teams and will again in this game. Lay the points. |
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12-15-21 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m not going to lie, rolling with the Pacers here, given what they have done to me this season, makes me feel a little uneasy. With that being said, the Bucks are in rough shape with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donte DiVincenzo and Wesley Matthews all in the health and safety protocols. To complicate matters, Khris Middleton (knee) is listed as questionable. If he’s out, this line could swing significantly. I’ll take a chance and lock in the Pacers now. |
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12-15-21 | Capitals -144 v. Blackhawks | 4-5 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nicklas Backstrom, Nic Dowd and Trevor Van Riemsdyk all traveled for this game so I would expect them to be back in the lineup. The Blackhawks beat the Caps for the first time since 2006 in Washington earlier this season but the Caps are healthy now. Both starting goalies should be starting after getting their last game off and both teams are rested having not played since Saturday. I like the Caps to even the season series tonight. |
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12-15-21 | Bellarmine v. South Dakota -1 | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units South Dakota is 6-0 at home this season and 59-9 all-time at its fairly new Coyote Sports Center. After sitting out last season in the pandemic, Aussie Hunter Goodrick has come back strong for the Coyotes and is averaging 7.2 points and 7.7 rebounds. All six of Bellarmine's losses are against good-to-great competition (Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga to name three) but all of its wins are against garbage. Only two of Bellarmine’s 11 games have had single-digit scoring margins. |
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12-15-21 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm going to risk picking this one early in the hopes that Joel Embiid plays for Philly because he did participate in the shootaround this morning after sitting out Monday. The Heat already have ruled out Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo among a few other lesser guys. |
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12-15-21 | UCF v. Temple OVER 135.5 | 65-48 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll take this moderate total to go over in an interesting matchup between UCF and Temple. Central Florida seems to focus more on offensive production and runs up the score in road games. They're 3-0 on the over when away from home and each time the total has safely cashed by at least 10 points. Temple should help by getting to the free throw line and adding points with the clock stopped while staying competitive at home. The over is the play here. |
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12-15-21 | Fairfield -9.5 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knights are one of the worst teams in Division I. They are 0-8 with an average margin of defeat of 20.4 PPG. The Stags have looked impressive this season. They are 8-1 ATS and have been trending upwards. They have won seven of their last eight games including four straight road games. They will dominate this terrible Knights teams and easily over this spread. |
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12-14-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Sharks -140 | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pretty reasonable price on San Jose at home considering Seattle has just three road wins. Sharks netminder James Reimer has been terrific with a 1.98 GAA and .937 SV overall. The Kraken's Philipp Grubauer is 1-4-2 on the road with a 3.82 GAA. |
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12-14-21 | UC-Davis +6.5 v. Oregon State | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Beavers are terrible. They are 1-8 SU and ATS so far this season. They are averaging just 65.1 PPG and allowing 72.2 PPG. The Aggies have looked impressive so far this season. They are just 4-3 but they are trending in the right direction. This is a perfect spot for the Aggies to stay hot. The Aggies will have a huge advantage on the glass in this matchup. This will help give them easy second chance baskets against a terrible defense. The Aggies will keep this game close enough to cover the spread. |
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12-14-21 | Alabama v. Memphis +4 | 78-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite luring the nation's No. 1 recruiting class, Penny Hardaway's Tigers have been mammoth disappointments on a four-game losing streak. The program hasn't lost five in a row since Jan. 29-Feb. 16, 2000. The models still largely love Memphis, though, and I do think the team gets fired up tonight in a White Out game against the No. 6 Tide. Already, at least 22 NBA teams have requested credentials for the game. This is the Tide's first true road game and that does matter. I'm not saying Memphis will win -- wouldn't stun me, though -- but 5.5 points is too many. |
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12-14-21 | Blues v. Stars -145 | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are a bit thinned-out by injury and COVID but especially St. Louis. The Blues' top two goaltenders are out, so it's Charlie Lindgren here. He has been quite good in two starts but history shows he's not a top-flight NHL netminder. The Stars' Jake Oettinger has made six starts this year and not allowed more than two goals in either. The Under also might be a wise play. |
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12-14-21 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Minnesota -15.5 | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Corpus Christie is getting far too much love here. Minnesota has been playing great basketball and is going to have a pretty easy time winning this game. My model makes this game a 20 point win for the Gophers. This one is already moving as it opened at 15, I'd play it all the way to -17. |
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12-14-21 | Jacksonville -1.5 v. Southern Miss | 62-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have the wrong team favored in this one- my model is making the Jacksonville Dolphins a 1 point favorite against Southern Miss. USM has failed to cover in three straight games while Jacksonville holds solid 5-1 ATS record so far this season. Another telling sign is that Jacksonville beat UNCW by 29, while USM beat them by 14. With the home court factored in that still makes Southern Miss about 6-8 points worse by comparison. Take the point and a half and watch for Jacksonville to probably win this game on the floor. |
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12-14-21 | Islanders v. Red Wings -115 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red Wings are 9-3-2 at home this season although they have lost their last three games. The Isles finally broke their losing streak and they have won 2 of their last 3 games. However, they have still lost 8 of 10 overall and they are 6-6-3 on the road. The Red Wings just beat the Isles at home, 4-3, 10 days ago. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to be back in net after getting their last game off, take the value in the Red Wings at home. |
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12-14-21 | Warriors -4.5 v. Knicks | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are a ton of wrinkles to this game. The most notable storyline is Stephen Curry looking to break the all-time three-point record. However, this is a tough spot for the Warriors team, itself. They just played Monday and plane issues will force them to not even travel from Indiana to New York until today. With that being said, the Knicks are also in a less-than-ideal situation with R.J. Barrett, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes all in the health and safety protocols. This won’t be easy for either team, but I’ll take Curry to help lead the Warriors to cover. |
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12-14-21 | USC Upstate v. Tennessee UNDER 139.5 | 52-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans have a terrible offense. Kenpom ranks them as 333rd best offense in the country. Now they have to face the powerful Volunteers defense which Kenpom ranks number one in the country. Tennessee doesn’t have the most elite offense as proven in their game against Texas Tech. This total is way too high. This game shouldn’t come close to this total. |
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State v. LSU -34 | 49-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model doesn't really do huge spreads, it operates much more successfully on lines that are less than about 18 points. However, I don't need my model to make this play on LSU, the line is far too small. LSU is 8-1 against the spread and is facing a Northwestern State team that lost on the road to SMU by 47, UL Monroe by 30, and Houston by 41. LSU beat UL Monroe by 62 to open the year and has many other impressive wins. This should be a cover at 31.5, lay the large number and enjoy the show. |
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12-14-21 | North Carolina A&T v. East Tennessee State -12 | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line is way too low, I'm seeing some projections around 17 and 20 for this game. My system is coming in a bit more conservatively at 15 points but this is definitely a strong signal from the model. ETSU is a borderline top 100 team while NC A&T hovers around the bottom 300 depending whose rankings you use. There's a good chance that 7-3 ETSU can run away with this on 3-8 NC A&T. Grab the home favorite. |
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12-14-21 | St Francis PA v. Hartford -1.5 | 81-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not exactly a marquee matchup between the 3-5 Red Flash and 1-8 Hawks on Tuesday. I don't read too much into Hartford's record because it has played just one true home game and lost close to Boston U, which is pretty good. The Hawks have played a very tough schedule. Hartford leads the American East in shooting at 45.8 percent overall and 35.3 percent from deep. Hartford brings back 62.9 percent of the team's scoring — including four of its top seven scorers -- from last year when it won the America East title and lost to eventual champion Baylor in the NCAA Tournament. The SportsLine Projection Model has Hartford winning by five and a few other models have about the same. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Any team with any realistic shot at a Super Bowl needs help from the defense, and it’s worth noting the Cards’ stop-unit has been out-yarded in three of its last five games. The Rams will look to exploit that tonight knowing they are 4-0 SUATS in their last four-division contests after surrendering fewer than 10 points in its last game, as well as 8-1 SUATS the last nine games in this series (the loss being a 37-10 defeat in L.A. in Game Four this season). Given the Redbirds’ ruinous 1-7 ATS mark in its last seven games as a division host, as well as its 2-10 ATS record at home on Monday Nights, and head coach Sean McVay’s 10-5 SUATS on the division road, including 3-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win, which all sets up perfectly knowing that Arizona head coach Kingsbury is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite with the Cardinals, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points. |
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12-13-21 | 76ers -3.5 v. Grizzlies | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As if going up against Joel Embiid wasn’t difficult enough, the Grizzlies will likely have to do it without Steven Adams (ankle), who is listed as doubtful. Brandon Clarke (knee) has already been ruled out, and even Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) is questionable. If Jackson sits out, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. Even if he plays, though, I like Embiid to help the Sixers cover. |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131 | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both the Rams and the Panthers play with no urgency. The under has cashed in seven out of ten games for the Rams and six out of nine games for the Panthers. The Rams defense has been amazing this season only allowing 62.8 PPG. They should slow down the Panthers in this game. The Rams will slow down the pace in this game and keep this under the total. |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island -6.5 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | 82-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Less than ten college basketball games today, but we can still find some value. It appears that Milwaukee is getting a bit too much respect here, my model is projecting Rhode Island to win by 9 points. URI has done well against the spread so far this season, going 6-3 as a favorite. They're going to have advantages on both sides of the ball in this game, but it's going to be especially tough for Milwaukee when they're on offense. Expect the defense for the Rams to lead the way. They'll handle business on the road, lay it. |
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12-13-21 | Heat v. Cavs -5 | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Give the Heat credit. Even with Jimmy Butler (tailbone) and Bam Adebayo (thumb) out, they have won both of their last two games. One win was a shocker over the Bucks, although their last victory came against a Bulls team that has been ravaged by COVID-19. This is a tall order for them against the Cavaliers, who beat them by 26 points in Miami a couple of weeks ago. The Cavaliers have been beating just about everyone of late, winning seven of their last nine games. All of those wins came by at least 13 points, as well. |
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12-13-21 | Radford v. George Washington -170 | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I do like George Washington to win this game but don't love the number so we'll go with the moderate moneyline price. Freshman Brayon Freeman has been great for the Colonials and has a 20:5 assist-to-turnover ratio over his last three games. GW largely goes, though, how sophomore guard Joe Bamislie goes. He is averaging 20.0 ppg and shooting 60.5% from the floor in GW victories this season, compared to 11.3 ppg and 30.6% shooting in losses. Radford is unbeaten at home but winless on the road. |
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12-13-21 | Northern Illinois v. Chicago State +1.5 | 70-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Huskies have been terrible this season. They have one of the worst offenses in the country. Out of 358 teams, they rank 357th in scoring offense and 356th in field goal percentage. The Cougars have been exceeding expectations this season. They are 7-2 ATS this season including 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They are the better team and should be favored as the home team. The Huskies are 1-6 SU away from home and the Cougars are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home. The Cougars should be able to control this game and cover this spread. |
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12-12-21 | Wolves v. Blazers | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers have lost seven of their last eight games with six losses coming by at least 10 points. Their only win during that stretch game against the rebuilding Pistons. They are hoping to get Damian Lillard (abdomen) back, but even if he plays, he might be limited and/or rusty. CJ McCollum (lung) will definitely be out, so they will at least be without one of their top two scorers. The Timberwolves haven’t been great, either, with five straight losses, but they’ve had an incredibly difficult schedule. Add in the possibility that D’Angelo Russell (ankle) could return after practicing Saturday and the Timberwolves could break their losing streak. |
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12-12-21 | Panthers v. Avalanche -144 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers are just 4-3-4 on the road this season while the Aves are 8-2-1 at home. The Aves have scored 7 goals in each of their last 3 games, and they average 2.1 more goals per game than their opponent on home ice. The Panthers are a completely different team on the road, and they average 1.5 goals fewer. Take the Aves to stay hot at home. |
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12-12-21 | Panthers v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I usually stay away from overs at 6.5 but honestly this over/under should be set at 7. Both these teams are high risk, high reward teams. Anthony Duclair and Aleksander Barkov were out of the lineup last game but they could be back in tonight. Gabriel Landeskog left the Aves last game early, but Nazem Kadri is expected to return tonight. Aves home games are 8-2 to the over this season and the Aves have scored 7 goals in each of their last 3 games. Take the over. |
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12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs OVER 52 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating 3 Units The oddsmakers have set a fairly high bar for us, with the OU line hovering in the range of 52.5 to 53.0 points (HIGHEST line of the week). At the very least, we can feel confident that we have not one... but TWO very good offenses that should have no problem trading points with each other (both teams averaging 28.0 > PPG this season). The high line in this game is indeed justified, a all NFC home favorites (BUCS) vs an AFC opponent (BILLS), when the OU line is GREATER than (>) 50 points is 16-4-1 O/U since 2015 / 9-1-1 O/U L4 years. |
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12-12-21 | 49ers +1 v. Bengals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay. |
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12-12-21 | Giants v. Chargers UNDER 44.5 | 21-37 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Sharp bettors already know that the G-Men have gone a league-LOW 6-21-1 OU in the last 2 years (including 3-16 O/U in NON-division play). Not only that, but EACH of New York’s last SEVEN games have gone UNDER ( 0-7 OU / avg margin: -12.1 ppg). To top it all off, there’s a very good chance that they will be starting a QB who wasn’t even on the team 10 short days ago (Jake Fromm). In their last three games, the Giants have scored only 9, 13, and 10 points |
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12-12-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -3.5 | 36-57 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears are ranked number two in the country for good reason. Baylor is the only team in the country that Kenpom ranks top ten in both offense (5th) and defense (7th). The Bears have been dominant this season as they are 8-0 SU and their closest game was an eight point win. Villanova only has two losses this season and they have come in their only two games against top ten teams. They lost by nine to UCLA and by six to Purdue. The Bears will be able to do enough to cover this spread. |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 48 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The visiting Cowboys are in the middle of 3 straight road games in a row. All FAVS of 2 > pts in the 2ND of 3 straight road games (Dallas) is 5-18-2 O/U since 87 / 2-10 O/U since 2011 / 0-6 O/U L5Y years. In their last two games, Dallas has allowed 17 pts (vs NOrl) and 36 pts (vs LV). All NFL favorites who allowed 17 < pts and 35 > pts in their last two games (Dallas), when the OU line is < 51 points is 1-8-1 O/U so far THIS season. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -142 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit 10* AFC Game of the Year Baltimore’s loss to Pittsburgh dropped their chances at landing a spot in the postseason to 85%. It all blows to smithereens, though, with a Cleveland win today. However, I we like the Browns’ chances, as teams in Game Thirteen with a .500 record, who were in the playoffs last season, are 18-3 SUATS when seeking revenge. That’s a big number. And so is Baker Mayfield’s 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS record with the Browns against foes coming off a loss, including 9-1 ATS when not favored by 3 or more points. To cap it off, consider that playing on 6-6 NFL team in Game Thirteen if they were a playoff team last season and are seeking revenge against a .500 or greater opponent that is not coming off a loss of 12 or more points is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1990. |
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12-11-21 | Stars v. Sharks -103 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stars are playing their third road game in four nights after losing their first two. They are now 4-7-1 on the road this season while the Sharks are 6-5-1 at home. The Sharks have lost 3 of their last 4 games but those were all with Adin Hill starting for the Sharks. James Reimer is expected to return for the Sharks and he has been very good this season going 8-4-1 with a 2.05 GAA. Take the Sharks at home. |
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12-11-21 | Bruins +120 v. Flames | 4-2 | Win | 120 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames are just 4-2-4 at home this season and they have lost three straight games after winning 6 of their last 7. The Bruins got Brad Marchand back last game and he proved to be a big addition as he added some scoring. The Bruins are 6-4-1 on the road this season and they’ve had a tough time winning back-to-back games, but the Flames are very streaky and they tend to lose multiple in a row when they lose. I think this game is more of a toss-up, I like the value in the Bruins. |
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12-11-21 | Hurricanes +113 v. Oilers | 3-1 | Win | 113 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oilers have now lost 4 straight games and they’ve only scored 7 total goals in those 4 games. They broke out of a 1 for 16 slump on the power play last game with 2 PPGs, but they were still shutout in 5 on 5 play for the loss. The Canes have the second-best penalty kill in the league and I think the Oilers will have a tough time scoring against them. The Canes have now won 3 straight games and they didn’t allow more than 2 goals in any of the three. I think this is a low scoring game and that should play right into the Canes, take the value on the Canes. |
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12-11-21 | Hurricanes v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oilers have the best power play in the league, but they will be facing the second-best penalty kill in the league, so that should keep scoring in check. The Oilers haven’t scored more than 2 goals in any of their last 3 games while the Canes haven’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of their last three. The Oilers goalies have been questionable lately so I am a little worried that pushes this one over, but now that it is at 6.5 there is still value. I was originally going to wait to make sure the starting goalies were in but now the line jumped up to 6.5 so I think there's value either way. Wouldn't be surprised to see Severance hop on too now since we all know his love for 6.5 unders, and it looks like this is the only 6.5 today. Take the under. |
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12-11-21 | Bruins v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bruins score just 2.8 goals per game on the road while the Flames score just 2.7 goals per game at home, but these are two of the best defenses in the league. The Flames allow just 2.15 goals per game, good for 1st in the league, while the Bruins allow just 2.57 goals per game, good for 6th best. Linus Ullmark hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of his last 4 starts and Jeremy Swayman has been even better for the Bruins. Jacob Markstrom hasn’t allowed more than 3 goals in his last 12 starts. Both teams are top 10 in penalty kill %, if we can avoid a 3-2 empty netter, this should finish under. |
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12-11-21 | Idaho v. CS Bakersfield -11.5 | 58-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Idaho is getting a lot of love in the market after their recent win over South Dakota State, but I think that is giving us a lot of value going the other way. My model agrees, making this a 15.5 point expected win for Bakersfield. Bakersfield has not played in a while, but their last game was a win over Boise State, they won 46-39 when made 15.5 point underdogs! We've seen how solid Boise is, therefore I think the Roadrunners should be able to handle Idaho by 12. Idaho lost to a similarly ranked Utah Valley squad by 38 earlier this year, so I think theres a good chance at a beat down. |
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12-11-21 | Flyers v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers played last night and won, so they are expected to start Martin Jones in net today while the Coyotes played yesterday as well, so they are expected to start Karel Vejmelka today. The Flyers average just 1.8 goals per game on the road, so don’t let their 4 goal outburst against a backup goalie last night fool you. The Coyotes average just 2.3 goals per game this season at home and they haven’t scored more than 2 goals in their last 6 games. These are your 27th and 32nd ranked teams in terms of goals scored, take the under. |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. 76ers | 93-102 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors have played the majority of their schedule at home, which has helped them to a 21-4 start. They haven’t exactly struggled on the road, though, posting a 7-2 record there, including 6-3 ATS. The Sixers are a disappointing 5-6 at home, including 1-4 ATS as a home underdog. Despite the matchup problem that Joel Embiid presents, I still like the Warriors to win this in deciding fashion. |
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12-11-21 | VCU -4.5 v. Old Dominion | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams have been playing well recently. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They are also 4-0 ATS away from home. The Monarchs are still without one of their best players, Charles Smith, who is out with mononucleosis. It hasn’t hurt them yet but now they have to face one of the best defenses in the country. According to Kenpom, the Rams are the third ranked defense in the country. They are going to prevent the Monarchs from doing anything offensive and easily cover this spread. Lay the points. |
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12-11-21 | Cal-Irvine +3 v. Fresno State | 55-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams have done well against the spread this year. However, I have the wrong team favored in this one- my model is making UC Irvine a favorite by a full point. I think it'll be a nail biter of a game but it's always good to take the points in those scenarios, especially when you're getting what appears to be the more complete side. I'd play this all the way down to +1.5 here if it happens to fall, but grab the points while you can. |
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12-11-21 | Drexel v. Abilene Christian -4.5 | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My projections are showing a good chance that Abilene Christian can run away with this game over Drexel, so the line is definitely a bit small. The official number I'm getting is an 8.5 point victory for the Wildcats. They've covered all but their first game of the season against Utah and should be able to keep it rolling today. Drexel has looked solid but I'll fade them on the road in Texas, lay it with Abilene. |
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12-11-21 | Arizona v. Illinois | 83-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Wildcats look unbeatable right now. They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this season. Kenpom ranks them as the 18th best offense and the 7th best defense. All of the Illini's production has come from Kofi Cockburn. They are missing two rotation guards. The Wildcats will be able to slow down Cockburn and the Illini will have no answer. This line is way off. Take the undefeated Wildcats to win this game. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Midshipmen have gone 18-5 ATS as dogs when coming off one SUATS win-exact, including 4-0 ATS in military matters, as well as 7-1 ATS with a losing record. Army counters with a lackluster 2-5 ATS effort in this series of late, and has gone a weak 1-4 ATS as chalk in 2021. The Mids are also not lacking in incentive: with Army playing with an Armed Forces Bowl bid in their back pocket, and knowing the CIC Trophy stays with them regardless, the Swabbies have only one thought in mind: Beat Army, Period. Finally, consider that playing on any sub .666 college football Military team as a dog if they are coming off a win and are facing a fellow Military team is 10-1 ATS since 1995. |
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12-11-21 | Canisius v. Youngstown State -6.5 | 43-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I missed picking on Youngstown State last time but I think they bounce back nicely here today, they've still covered two of their last three contests. My model is making this a 9 point win for Youngstown and I'll gladly take three points of value on a home team. Canisius has not covered in any of their last five games and the Penguins should take care of business. Lay the points. |
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12-10-21 | Jets v. Canucks UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Canucks unders are now 11-1 at home and as Ive said, we will ride that trend until it stops. All three of the Canucks home games this homestand have hit this under and the Jets played last night so they should be a little weary. The Canucks have played very good defense in front of Thatcher Demko since hiring Bruce Boudreau and I think that will continue tonight against a poor road team. The Jets score just 2.3 goals per game on the road while the Canucks score 2.2 goals per game at home. Eric Comrie should get the start for the Jets, but he has been solid so far this season. It looks like this line will rise to 6 but I actually want to get this play in at +115 at 5.5 instead of adding a push scenario at -125 at 6 because I feel like there is more value at plus money. If it goes over, I think there will be more than 6 goals scored. |
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12-10-21 | Red Wings v. Avalanche -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aves got all their key players back from injury last game but Nazem Kadri did leave the game early and is listed as day-to-day. Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are both healthy tho. The Aves are 7-2-1 at home this season and 7-3 ATS at home. They average 4.7 goals per game at home and they face the Red Wings on the back end of a back-to-back. The Wings are 4-8-1 on the road and 4-9 ATS, I like the Aves at home on the puck line against a weary Detroit team most likely starting their backup goalie. |
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12-10-21 | Bucks v. Rockets +9 | 123-114 | Push | 0 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I wonder if this is the first time in NBA history that a team on at least a seven-game winning streak is a home dog of at least nine points. I'd be surprised if it has happened before. I fully expect Milwaukee to win, but I have to take this number on Houston considering how well and hard the Rockets are playing. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four as home dogs. |
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12-10-21 | Cavs -1 v. Wolves | 123-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves have said that D’Angelo Russell (ankle) probably won’t play in this game, which would mark his third straight absence. Losing one of their top scorers for a matchup with a team that has the third-best defensive rating in the league could have them facing an uphill battle. They will need more scoring from Karl-Anthony Towns, but he’ll likely spend of most of the game being defended by the stout duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. I like the Cavaliers chances here. |
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12-10-21 | DePaul +7.5 v. Louisville | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Demons look really good. They are 7-1 ATS and their offense is on fire. They are averaging 85.3 PPG on 49.2 percent from the field. The Cardinals haven’t been good at home. They are just 1-3 ATS at home. I am low on Louisville this year, especially against good opponents. The Cardinals only defensive struggle is that they let up too many points in the paint. DePaul does a great job of getting points at the basket. The Blue Demons will keep this game close enough to cover. Take the points. |
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12-10-21 | Penguins v. Capitals -142 | 4-2 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Caps won the first meeting between these teams 6-1 and it wasn’t even close. That was Sidney Crosby and company's first game back but now the Caps are the ones getting healthy. They lost a couple players to the COVID list in Garnet Hathaway and Trevor Van Riemsdyk, but they add a couple as well from injury in Connor Sheary and TJ Oshie. The Caps are 9-1-4 at home this season and they are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. The Penguins have been much better playing to a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 games as well, but the Caps score the fourth most goals in the league while allowing the 3rd fewest, both better than the Penguins. Take the Caps at home. |
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12-10-21 | Army v. NJIT -150 | 66-49 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The various models have the New Jersey Institute of Technology winning by about three points, so just in case I'll do the moneyline here. Not a great schedule today so may be the only pick -- there's actually one game that pits Yellowstone Christian (didn't know existed) against Montana. That's going to divide the Dutton family for sure! It's akin to Auburn-Alabama on the Yellowstone ranch. Great show. I digress. NJIT has won three straight games. Miles Coleman and Dylan O’Hearn are among the America East’s Top 10 scoring leaders with O’Hearn (19.9 ppg) first and Coleman (14.9 ppg) seventh. O'Hearn comes off a school Division I record 42-point game against Lafayette. NJIT also is good defensively, leading the America East in field-goal defense at 38.0 percent. Army is 0-3 on the road and has covered only one of its past six vs. teams with a winning record. |
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12-09-21 | Wild -139 v. Sharks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wild have now won 7 straight games and they have allowed more than 2 goals just one time during that stretch. The Wild are the third highest scoring team in the league while the Sharks are ranked 24th, so the Sharks should have a tough time keeping up with them. Adin Hill played well in his last game but he has been very hit or miss all season. The Sharks are just 6-4-1 at home while the Wild are 8-4-1 on the road this season so the Sharks shouldn’t have a noticeable advantage. I like the Wild to extend their winning streak to 8 games. |
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12-09-21 | Grand Canyon v. Arizona State -3.5 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At 3-6, Arizona State’s expectations are long gone for a salvageable season. On Thursday, the Sun Devils face a motivated Grand Canyon team that has two Arizona State transfers in Taeshon Cherry and Holland Woods. Look for ASU’s strength of schedule to pay dividends Thursday.. The Devils have faced heavyweight matchups in tournaments and have already played two Pac-12 games. Take ASU on the small line. |