Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs will have Kris Bryant back in the lineup -- barring a trade (Nelson Cruz deal burned me Thursday night) -- and closer Craig Kimbrel should be available after he wouldn't have been yesterday. This is Chicago's first home game since the break and the Cubs are simply a different club at Wrigley. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 2.78 ERA in day games this year. I don't take much stock in day of the week trends, but Arizona is a laughable 2-14 in its past 16 Friday games and just horrid on the road. The Snakes are without leading hitter and OBP guy Josh Rojas as well. He's tied for the team lead with a WAR of 2.1. I tend to agree with Justin Perri on the Over and that's a great stat he provided. |
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07-22-21 | A's v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Should Seattle even be a home dog? Consider that starting pitcher Chris Flexen (9-3, 3.35) has a 1.77 ERA in his past seven starts overall and has a 1.76 ERA at T-Mobile Park, the third-best home ERA in the majors among qualified pitchers. The Mariners are 38-21 between Thursday and Sunday this season and way under .500 the other days. Yes, Oakland's Sean Manaea (6-6, 3.28) was brilliant in Seattle earlier this year, but he hasn't won since mid-June and has a 5.29 ERA this month. The Mariners are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter. We'll take the Seattle RL (-135) to be safe. |
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07-22-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -115 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two breaks for the Cardinals here: Kris Bryant, who destroys left-handed pitching, is out again (truly might be traded any minute now) for the Cubs, and stud closer Craig Kimbrel surely isn't available after pitching the past two games. St. Louis blew a ninth-inning lead Wednesday because closer Alex Reyes wasn't available but now should be. It's southpaw Kwang Hyun Kim for the Redbirds, and he brings in a career-best 21.0-inning scoreless streak, which is the longest active of any NL starter. Chicago's Adbert Alzolay is 1-6 with a 4.89 ERA on the road. |
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07-22-21 | Rays v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit10* Top Play Total Hernandez and company will try their luck against right-hander Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA), who will get the nod on Thursday after being added to the taxi squad from Triple-A Durham. "I don't know if we have an exact message to give him, but we know we want him to start," Rays manager Kevin Cash said of the 21-year-old Patino. "He's done good things in Triple-A. Young pitcher that we've got to find a way to give him a little bit of a lane, create a path for him to take off here for us. And hopefully, (Thursday) is the start of that." Patino last pitched for Tampa Bay on July 2, allowing seven runs on as many hits in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He then yielded five earned runs in his next two appearances with the Bulls. |
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07-22-21 | Padres -142 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins have lost four of their last five and send Zach Thompson to the mound whom they are 2-4 behind this season. However, he’s been much better than that, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of those starts. But I’m on the Padres because of Blake Snell. They’ve won three straight behind him. San Diego to win. |
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07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -136 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting a rather low number on Boston at home because oddsmakers aren't sure what to make of young pitcher Tanner Houck (0-3, 3.38) in just his eighth big-league appearance. In nine career innings against New York, the right-hander righty has allowed one unearned run on two hits while striking out seven. Yanks lefty Jordan Montgomery has a 5.32 road ERA and Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts kills him career (player prop hint). No Gary Sanchez tonight for the Bombers on top of Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela still on the COVID list. |
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07-22-21 | Braves -125 v. Phillies | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta's Charlie Morton has a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP on the road this year. Look for Freddie Freeman (3 HR, 5 RBI in the last five games) and the Braves to get to lefty Matt Moore, who has not gone more than 4.1 innings in his last three starts. |
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07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -132 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Been cashing all week on Detroit in this series and see no reason why the Tigers won't complete the four-game sweep and win their sixth straight overall and eighth in a row at home. Texas has lost eight in a row, all by at least two runs, and is the only winless team since the break. And it starts one of the worst pitchers in the AL in Mike Foltynewicz (2-9, 5.91). He only gave up 10 runs over 1.2 innings last time out AND will be on short rest, meaning he probably won't be out there long. He may not be out there long simply as he's not good. It almost doesn't matter which pitcher Detroit is starting (Tyler Alexander). He won't be out there long, either, with a season high of 3.1 innings pitched. |
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07-21-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -151 | 4-2 | Loss | -151 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers won in walk-off fashion on Tuesday night, 8-6, completing an incredible comeback against the Giants. The win propelled the Dodgers to an impressive 31-15 record at home. I expect momentum to continue on Wednesday as the Dodgers have won four straight starts with Julio Urias pitching. Grab L.A. |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs scored six runs in the top of the ninth on Tuesday, which is one fewer than the output from their previous two games combined. This offense just cannot get it going, and I expect that continues on the road against Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright. The veteran has a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home compared to 5.35 and 1.29 on the road. He blanked the Cubs over eight innings at home in May, and I expect similar results on Wednesday. Back the Cardinals and make sure to list Wainwright on your ticket. |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -150 | 7-2 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In 15 matchups this season the White Sox have won 12 while averaging 7.1 runs per game. That puts immense pressure on a struggling Twins bullpen on Wednesday. Grab the White Sox to win their 13th game this season over the Twins. |
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07-21-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -113 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Really, neither starting pitcher -- Jordan Lyles or Matt Manning -- is very trustworthy, although Manning is a promising prospect and has pitched pretty well in three of his five big-league starts. This is simply fading the Rangers, who have lost seven straight all by multiple runs. Detroit has won five in a row overall and seven consecutive at home, its longest home win streak since a 10-game run from July 14-August 15, 2013. Texas has the worst road record in the AL at 13-35 and is equally awful against right-handed pitching. |
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07-21-21 | Mariners v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It appears the wind will be blowing slightly in from right to left at Coors Field this afternoon. Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber (6-5, 3.48) has a 1.48 ERA at home. The Mariners will use an opener before turning to Chris Flexen, who has a 1.77 ERA over his past seven outings. The Under is 10-1 in Colorado's past 11 at home as the team's pitching staff has really improved. |
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07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -170 | 6-3 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I see no reason to wait until early Wednesday to make this wager after KC burned me Tuesday. Looks to be a fairly lopsided pitching matchup with Kansas City's Brad Keller (6-9, 5.97) opposed by Milwaukee lefty Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Keller has been a bit better away yet still allowing batters to hit .313 off him on the road. Lauer has allowed just two runs and 11 hits over 18.1 innings in his past three. He loves day games with a 2-0 record and 1.86 ERA. The Royals are not great vs. lefties, Tuesday's upset against mediocre Brett Anderson aside. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks will aim to be the first team since the 2006 Miami Heat to go down 0-2 in the NBA Finals and win the next four games. The rising play of Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to go to new heights. Expect the Suns' letdown over Game 4’s final 90 seconds and squandering of a 16-point, first-quarter lead in Game 5 to haunt them. Look for Milwaukee to close out the NBA season with a championship. |
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07-20-21 | Twins v. White Sox -138 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m not a huge fan of Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel’s stuff, but he’s learned to manage a game better than he did in his younger years, and he’s also led his team to victory in 11 of his 17 starts. The White Sox's offense should be able to attack Minnesota RHP Bailey Ober and get an early lead. Chicago has won three of its last four games while the Twins have lost four of their last five. The White Sox are headed to the playoffs and Minnesota has no hope for the postseason. Take Chicago to win. |
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07-20-21 | Padres -150 v. Braves | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We backed the Padres behind Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.09) over the Braves and lefty Kyle Muller (1-2, 3.45) on Monday because the Friars generally destroy lefties. That game was rained out, and by all appearances it will be the same two starters tonight so nothing has changed in my mind. Atlanta is 1-3 since losing Ronald Acuna Jr. |
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07-20-21 | Phillies -125 v. Yankees | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies are just 9-9 behind RHP Aaron Nola. But we have New York RHP Domingo German’s rating sliding downward after a strong start to 2021, as the Yankees have lost four of his last five starts. New York still has COVID-19 issues, which have star performers like Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela sidelined. The Phillies are battling with wins in five of their last six games. Take Philadelphia to win. |
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07-20-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month With Joe Ross still battling right elbow inflammation, Washington right-hander Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33 ERA) will start. He last pitched in Friday's 24-8 loss to the Padres, allowing three runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. His last start came on July 9 against the Giants, when he allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings. Espino is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings with the Marlins, including a two-inning appearance on this season on June 25, when he allowed two runs, one earned, and three hits. All-Star left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31) faces the Nationals for the second time this season -- and his career. On May 2, he took the loss, giving up three runs on four hits over five innings. In his last start, the rookie gave up three runs -- two earned -- in four innings of a loss to the Braves. He struck out a season-low four batters and walked two. |
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07-20-21 | Royals v. Brewers -160 | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams were off Monday; this was to be a night game but was pushed to the afternoon because there's apparently some other sporting event going on in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Lefty Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.33) gets the call for the Brewers, swapping in for Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Anderson isn’t as good overall but does have a 2.86 ERA in four home starts. The Royals have lost five straight on the road vs. southpaws and also lose the DH here. Kansas City's Mike Minor (6-8, 5.67) has allowed a whopping 24 runs over his past four outings. Milwaukee is 8-3 in its past 11 vs. a lefty. |
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07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -152 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Halos are 4-9 in their past 13 on the road after dropping Game 1 of this series on Monday and face good-looking young A's righty James Kaprielian (4-3, 2.90), who has a 1.38 ERA in four home starts and also is better during the day overall (2.41) than at night (3.49). It's lefty Jose Suarez (4-2, 2.29) for L.A. He has nice numbers but Oakland is 22-13 vs. southpaws and Suarez is a five-inning pitcher max. I probably would have considered the Under here if the wind wasn't blowing out a bit in Oakland. |
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07-19-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -127 | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line represents one of the two highest to which the Dodgers have played at home all season. Despite facing a strong starter in San Francisco RHP Kevin Gausman, Los Angeles still has a greater advantage in this game. The Dodgers are coming off a frustrating 6-5 extra-inning loss at Colorado. In a back-and-forth contest, the Rockies scored first before Los Angeles took the lead on three separate occasions. Since May 6, 2019, the Dodgers are 7-0 at home after a game in which their opponent scored first and Los Angeles moved ahead before going on to lose. |
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07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -116 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Caleb Smith’s last start lasted 1 inning, in which he was pounded mercilessly by the Dodgers for a million hits and a million runs in what became 22-1 loss for the D-Backs. But if Matt Harvey can start a shutout for Baltimore (son of a ___!!!), then Caleb Smith has the potential for something similar. Off that one start, they’re sending him back out to the mound, not to the minors, and It’s not the Dodgers coming to town, it’s the Pirates, who average the fewest runs per game in MLB (3.63 overall, and only 3.13 on the road.) It’s not Walker Buehler starting for the opponent (his team wins practically every time he starts), it’s Chase De Jong, who has a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. |
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07-19-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 0-14 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This total already has dropped to 8 at some books so we'll jump now -- doesn't look like the winds will be a factor. It's ace Kyle Gibson (6-1, 2.29) on the bump for Texas. His ERA in night games is 1.76. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize is on the bump for the Tigers (3-3, 3.59). He's on an innings limit so may not go more than five, but it should be a strong five. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Tigers' last 12 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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07-19-21 | Mets v. Reds -110 | Top | 15-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 UnitMLB Play of the Day This would normally be Jacob deGrom's spot in the rotation for the Mets, but the Cy Young heavy favorite is on the injured list (as is star shortstop Francisco Lindor). Thus, it's fade time with Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 4.97). In his lone road start, he was knocked around for five runs in D.C. The Mets aren't very good on the road as it is. Reds pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez has had back-to-back quality starts. |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox +111 v. Yankees | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to jump all over the Red Sox again after last night’s game. The Red Sox were up 1-0 while no-hitting the Yankees before it started raining. The Yankees were able to squeeze three runs in to win a 6-inning game 3-1. But it is the Yankees bullpen that is struggling without Jonathan Loaisiga and a sharp Aroldis Chapman right now. Jamison Taillon has been much better at home this season but the Red Sox have seen him once and scored three runs in 5.1 IP. Martin Perez is much better on the road with a 2.04 ERA and the Yankees have struggled against lefties this season. |
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07-18-21 | Mariners +116 v. Angels | 7-4 | Win | 116 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners, which means they are going to win. The rookie right-hander has been a major driving force behind the surprising Mariners, who are only 3 1/2 games out the final wild-card spot. Seattle is 49-44 and has won eight straight behind Gilbert. He beat LHP Patrick Sandoval and the Angels 9-5 at Los Angeles on June 6. Take the Mariners to win. |
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07-18-21 | Indians v. A's -158 | 4-2 | Loss | -158 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics suffered a 3-2 loss on Saturday, ending their three-game winning streak, but RHP Chris Bassitt is on the mound, which means they're most likely going to win. They’ve won 14 of his 19 starts this season, and he’s allowed fewer than two runs in three of his last four starts. Bassitt and the Athletics will get the win. |
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07-18-21 | Orioles v. Royals -133 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Royals will look to rebound from a loss to the Baltimore Orioles and take a series win this afternoon in Kansas City. The Orioles will send Matt Harvey (3-10, 7.70 ERA) to the mound, while fellow right-hander Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 4.98) will start for the Royals. Baltimore won Saturday with a big, early outburst. The Orioles scored two in the second and five in the third to build a 7-0 lead en route to an 8-4 victory. Harvey has lost nine straight decisions after starting the season 3-1. In his 12 starts since winning his third game, he's given up at least six earned runs four times. He's also had three more starts with five earned runs allowed. |
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07-18-21 | Twins v. Tigers +115 | 0-7 | Win | 115 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Willy Peralta has been very good this season in limited action and the Tigers swept the doubleheader against the Twins yesterday with an improbably walk off in the second game. JA Happ has an 8.29 ERA on the road this season but he did pick up the win against the Tigers in his last start. The Tigers have been hitting lefties well lately and they have all the momentum. Take the Tigers at plus money at home. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -165 | 123-119 | Loss | -165 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units I see no reason why the home team won't win every game of this series barring injury. Another extra day off in the Finals, which may help 36-year-old Chris Paul, who simply wasn't very good in the two games in Milwaukee. Jrue Holiday defensively has given Paul nightmares. However, I like the Suns because they should have won Game 4 and mostly because of the home/road shooting splits of Holiday and Khris Middleton in this postseason. For Holiday, it's 43.7 percent overall and 30.4 percent from deep at home and 37.5/28.3 away. For Middleton, it's an even steeper 46.8/38.0 at home compared to 40.4/31.5 away |
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07-17-21 | Red Sox +116 v. Yankees | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gerrit Cole is 9-4 with a 2.68 ERA, but the Yankees are 9-9 behind him which equates to -10.40 units on the season. This is one of his cheaper prices because the Yankees have some COVID-19 issues (Aaron Judge out) and other injuries leaving them with lots of Triple-A players. The Red Sox beat Cole 9-2 20 days ago. Boston is 7-0 against the Yankees this season. Red Sox to win. |
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07-17-21 | Giants -117 v. Cardinals | 1-3 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The first-place Giants picked up right where they left off last night with a win to make it five straight, and they’ve got Anthony DeSclafani on the mound. They're 13-5 when he starts and have won seven of his last eight. His last start was one of his best with six shutout innings in a win against the Nationals. The price is cheap because Kwang Hyun Kim hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts, one of them at San Francisco 12 days ago. But I’m on the Giants to keep rolling. |
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07-17-21 | Indians v. A's -174 | 3-2 | Loss | -174 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's be honest. We bet/pick games if early. Can't help it. Seems a fair price here, plus I doubt Indians closer Emmanuel Clase is available after blowing the save Friday. Sometimes, it's the little things. Also, it's a day game: A's starter Frankie Montas has a 3.25 day ERA (it matters, shadows and such) |
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07-16-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If oddsmakers are going to keep giving me great prices on the Rockies +1.5 at home, I'll keep taking them. Their home record of 31-17 (same home RL record, best in majors) would put the Rockies on a better than 100-win pace over 162 games at Coors. Colorado also is above .500 overall against lefties and faces Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias (not Walker Buehler as was originally listed; "Ferris" will go Saturday). Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela is always much better in Denver (3.75 ERA this year) than away (6.03 ERA). He has allowed three earned or fewer in five straight at Coors Field. |
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07-16-21 | Giants -131 v. Cardinals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants come out of the break still in first place in the brutally tough NL West where three teams have won 53 games or more. San Francisco closed the break on a four-game win streak and start the second half with ace Kevin Gausman and his 1.73 ERA. The Giants have gone 12-6 behind him this season. The best part of this bet is that the price is 25 cents light. San Francisco to win. |
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07-16-21 | Orioles v. Royals -152 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore is truly wretched on the road, that shocking sweep in Houston a few weeks ago aside. And the Orioles are starting a truly wretched pitcher, at least so far in his young career, in Keegan Akin (0-4, 7.54). His ERA jumps to 8.42 on the road. It's lefty Danny Duffy (4-3, 2.53) for the Royals in what could be his final start with the team -- all but a lock he's traded by the July 30 deadline. After a stint on the IL and a few short outings, Duffy seems back in form. Only a few current O's have seen him. |
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07-16-21 | Brewers v. Reds -123 | 11-6 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Very unusual scheduling here as these clubs played four games against one another in Milwaukee to close the first half -- the Reds won the final three -- and now they play three immediately again in Cincinnati. This is a pitching rematch of last Thursday between the Brewers' Adrian Houser and Reds' Tyler Mahle. Both guys allowed three runs in a ND. Mahle doesn't have great home splits but is 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA at night. Houser has been a bit worse on the road this year and has a 6.75 ERA in two visits to Cincinnati. The Reds are 11-1 in their past 12 as home favorites. |
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07-16-21 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We were on the Red Sox RL for Thursday's game, which of course was postponed due to COVID issues on the Yankees. As of now, they are planning to play today, but New York will be without two big bats in Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela, who will go on the COVID list. Boston pitcher Martin Perez has a 2.04 road ERA. New York's Domingo German has a 5.02 home ERA. Let's hit the RL again. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton were a combined 14 for 18 from the floor in Game 3 and the Suns still lost. Devin Booker was clearly off of his game, well-defended by Milwaukee. Booker has responded recently after bad games. Leading their series 2-0 against the Clippers, Phoenix was beaten by 14 in L.A. when Booker went 5 for 21 from the floor. In the next game, Booker led both teams in scoring with 25 in the 4-point Phoenix road win. Even with that history, Phoenix has to make some major adjustments. They were casual in the last game and when Ayton was in foul trouble, Giannis Antetokounmpo did whatever he wanted on the floor. Milwaukee took the first-quarter punch that the Suns delivered on Sunday and then they won the middle quarters by a total of 25 points. Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker were picking up the Phoenix guards early and often and that made the Suns desperate to fight the shot clock. The biggest question coming into this series was the health of Giannis. Well, all he did was put up 83 points and 25 boards in the last 2 games. Khris Middleton has yet to have an explosive game and when he plays well and scores, it opens it up for the entire squad. In Games 1 and 2 of the Bucks’ four playoff series this season, Middleton averaged 18 points, shot it at 38% from the floor and 29% from deep. In Games 3 and beyond this post season, Middleton has shot 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc and has averaged 26 points in 12 games. Reserve guard Bryn Forbes is also due to heat up. His shot has been off a lot but he has 5 double-figure games in this post season, including a pair of 22-point games vs. Miami. If the Bucks can again continue to go to the rack and force Ayton into foul trouble, Phoenix will once again be extremely vulnerable in the paint. Milwaukee was not only a +14 in points in the paint in the last game but they were a +10 in fast-break points. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Early money has come in on the Bucks and I agree with it. They already have overcome a 2-0 series deficit in the playoffs, against Brooklyn, so the belief is there. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday aren't going to combine for 12-of-37 shooting in Milwaukee, like they did in Game 2 in Phoenix. After two full days of rest, they'll bounce back in front of their raucous fans and give Giannis Antetokounmpo the help he needs. Look for Milwaukee, with its season on the line, to dominate inside and try to get DeAndre Ayton in foul trouble. The Suns are thin inside with Dario Saric and Torrey Craig injured. |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros -133 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Left-hander Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86 ERA) will start today as the Astros attempt to avert a series sweep. He logged five innings in his most recent start on Tuesday against the Oakland Athletics, his lowest total since his season debut, and allowed season highs in hits (10) and runs (six) but did not factor into the decision in the Astros' 9-6 win. Valdez had worked at least six innings in each of his previous six starts, pitching to a 5-1 record and 2.18 ERA during that span. |
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07-11-21 | Reds v. Brewers -155 | 3-1 | Loss | -155 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today's starting pitchers are Luis Castillo (3-10, 4.81 ERA) for the Reds and Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.10 ERA) for the Brewers. Castilo was 'talking Cy Young' for himself after a15-8 season in 2019 but he was just 4-6 in 2020. Castillo then opened 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA through his first 11 starts of 2021 (team was 1-10). However, he owns a 2.00 ERA over his last seven starts, despite a modest 2-2 record (Reds are 4-3). Woodruff had a terrific season in 2019, despite being limited to 22 starts due to an injury. He finished 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, while the Brewers won 18 of his 22 starts. He's made 17 starts in 2021 and his ERA is an outstanding 2.10, his WHIP is 0.78 and his BAA is .158. His record deserves to be better than 7-4 but the Brewers are 12-5 in his 17 starts. Woodruff is the better pitcher and the Brewers are the better team. |
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07-10-21 | Angels v. Mariners +100 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alex Cobb did his job. He pitched 5 1/3 innings for the Angels last night and allowed 0 earned runs, out-pitching Marco Gonzales (7 hits, 2 home runs in 5 2/3 innings) as expected. Naturally, Angels’ manager Joe Maddon frantically searched for somebody to lose the game for him and in the third, fourth and fifth relievers, he found three stiffs to give up a total of 5 runs in the bottom of the seventh and eighth innings for a 7-3 loss. That’s the way it’s been going here. Chris Flexen of Seattle escaped to Korea for a while to rinse the Mets’ attempt at developing him from his system, came back to the states to sign with the Mariners this season and is loving pitching in this ballpark, with a 1.99 ERA in nine starts here. Angels’ lefty Patrick Sandoval is a long reliever masquerading as a starter who walked 5 Orioles at home in the 5 innings of his July 4 start. He pitched a decent home outing vs. the Mariners on June 6 with 6 innings of 5-hit, 3-run ball but Maddon was at it again after Sandoval left, finding all the relievers necessary to allow 6 runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. |
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07-10-21 | Rockies +1.5 v. Padres | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies are 7-34 on the road. But Arizona had lost something like 26 of 27 road games before winning in Dodger Stadium last night at odds of +$2.55. Ya’ gotta do what ya’ gotta do and German Marquez has been getting done what he’s had to get done. The Rockies have won his last four starts and he’s pitched 6, 8, 9 and 6 innings in them, allowing a total of only 9 hits in these 29 innings. The Padres’ Joe Musgrove has allowed 11 hits and 10 runs in his last two starts, with 7-4 K-BB in those 11 innings. Marquez had 11-1 K-BB in 6 innings six days ago. |
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07-09-21 | Yankees v. Astros -130 | 4-0 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams played yesterday, but the Yankees had to travel from Seattle. Houston barely used its bullpen in a 2-1 home loss to Oakland, ending a six-game skid. This price feels fairly low with the Astros at home and facing fill-in Yanks starter Nestor Cortes, who surely won't go more than 3-4 innings. The lefty has a stellar 1.29 ERA in 21 innings, but this has to be a fluke if you look at his career numbers. Houston's Jake Odorizzi (3-3, 3.70) got a late start to the season due to injury but has been excellent of late, allowing just one earned run in his past four starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter. |
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07-09-21 | Pirates v. Mets -190 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Taijuan Walker has been one of the best pitchers in the NL and should be an All Star. He is 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA at home. He has only allowed more than two earned runs in three of his starts this season and hasn’t allowed more than four. The Pirates just won two of three games against the Braves giving us value tonight, but they have also lost seven of 10 games. The Mets are 26-12 at home while the Pirates are 13-29 on the road. |
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -124 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The starting pitchers for Friday's series opener are Vince Velasquez (3-3, 4.50 ERA) of Philadelphia and Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA) of Boston. This marks Velasquez's seventh season, the last six with the Phillies. He's made 148 career appearances (119 starts), going 31-38 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. That pretty much mirrors what he's done in 2021, as he's made 17 appearances (13 starts) in going 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. This marks his NINTH consecutive start but he's coming of one of his worst starts of the season. He surrendered five ERs, his second most in any start this season, while allowing a season-high nine hits, with three walks and four strikeouts over six innings of an 11-1 loss at San Diego last Sunday. |
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07-09-21 | Braves v. Marlins +109 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves will start 37-year-old veteran right-hander Charlie Morton (7-3, 3.91 ERA). The Marlins will start 27-year-old rookie right-hander Zach Thompson (2-2, 2.25 ERA). Thompson, who made his MLB debut on June 7, has just five major-league starts under his proverbial belt, including two against the Braves. On June 12, he beat the Braves 4-2, striking out six batters in five scoreless innings. Then, this past Sunday, Thompson turned in a quality start with three runs allowed in six innings, leaving the game with a lead. The Braves, however, rallied against Miami's bullpen, winning 8-7. Morton has made 16 career starts against the Marlins, sporting a 7-5 record with a 4.42 ERA. This year, however, Morton is 0-1 with a 7.63 ERA in three starts against Miami. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4.5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These series usually come down to adjustments as the games continue. Milwaukee Coach Budenholzer failed to make any defensive adjustment for a sustained period of time in Game One. The Suns ate up Brook Lopez when he was forced to switch and attempt to guard either Devin Booker or Chris Paul. Offensively Lopez shot it well and was a disrupter in the paint but he was clearly exposed on D. You know that Giannis Antetokounmpo is not right when 3 of the Milwaukee starters had more shot attempts. Giannis played with heart but for the most part the explosiveness was not there. Listening to Giannis after the game, it became evident that the injury was on his mind: “The medical staff cleared me to play and out there I had my balance. Thought my knee was stable…at the end of the day, I’m out there...I can run. I can jump. I can set screens. I can rebound the ball. I can do stuff.” The ball boy can set screens, rebound in shoot arounds and do stuff. Giannis doesn’t sound like he thinks he can dominate games like he has in the past. Khris Middleton played well for the Bucks, clearly was the prime mover on offense and he was he was the aggressor even when Giannis was open. Dario Saric is gone with a torn ACL and the Suns are already light with big men. Frank Kaminsky could get more minutes and the ‘Tank’ has averaged double figures in 3 of his 6 years in the league and has shot it at 35% from beyond the arc in his career. The Suns will likely again rely on small ball and if Milwaukee doesn’t devise a way to keep Deandre Ayton off the glass, they will again be in trouble. Ayton was a vacuum cleaner off the glass in Game One. He only missed 2 shots from the field and was perfect from the free-throw line. Basically the Suns held Milwaukee in check as far as transition is concerned and Phoenix pushed the ball, something Chris Paul talked about after the game. Milwaukee was 56% from the charity stripe, Phoenix was 25 for 26 when they got free shots at the line. That could be the key to the entire series. |
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07-08-21 | Tigers +115 v. Twins | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tarik Skubal (5-7, 4.35 ERA), who is 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA in his past seven starts for Detroit, will oppose fellow left-hander J.A. Happ (4-4, 6.09) in the opener of the final series before the All-Star break. Considering the way the Tigers are playing lately, they probably would prefer to keep going instead of taking the four-day break for All-Star Game festivities in Denver. The Tigers have won four of their past five series while earning a split against American League West-leading Houston in the other. Detroit is 6-2 in its past eight games after Wednesday's 5-3 win over Gibson and the Rangers. Minnesota has lost seven of its past nine games following a 6-1 setback to the first-place Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. |
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07-08-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado will send Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.52 ERA) against the Diamondbacks' Jake Faria (0-0, 5.25) in a matchup of right-handers. Faria signed with Arizona on June 16 and made his first appearance with the Diamondbacks three days later. He hadn't started a game since he was with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 but has stared twice in his five appearances since joining the Diamondbacks. He has faced the Rockies twice in his career and is 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA in just one inning against them. Gonzalez has been a different pitcher at home than on the road. He is 0-5 with a 6.81 ERA on the road compared to 2-0 with a 4.31 ERA at Coors Field. His struggles away from home mirror what the team has dealt with this year. |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This year, Alcantara has been better with backup catcher Sandy Leon (1.61 ERA in five games) than with starter Jorge Alfaro (2.67 ERA in 10 games). In addition, it bodes well for Alcantara that the Thursday contest is a matinee since he has been better in seven games during the day (3-2, 1.51 ERA) than in 11 games at night (2-5, 4.02 ERA). Then again, Urias also has a better ERA during the day (2.91) than at night (3.57). The Marlins, who beat the Dodgers 9-6 on Wednesday on Jesus Aguilar's three-run, ninth-inning homer, are 4-1 since losing to the Atlanta Braves 1-0 on Friday. Marlins starter Pablo Lopez was ejected just one pitch into that game after hitting Ronald Acuna Jr. with a pitch. After that pitch, Miami's relievers had to eat up the innings missed by Lopez, and that issue had a ripple effect, causing the Marlins bullpen to become overworked. Despite that fact, Miami's bullpen has been brilliant since that point, posting a stellar 2.61 ERA in 31 innings. The Marlins are now 4-2 against the Dodgers this year, with one game left in the season series. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a fairly quick turnaround for the Bucks against the fully-healthy Suns. The home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has won seven straight by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, the home team is 15-1 straight-up in the last 16 NBA Finals openers. This likely won't be a quick series, but in Game 1, I expect the Bucks to have significant difficulty adjusting. They got every shot they wanted against the Hawks' porous defense, and now they're facing a rested Suns team that ranked seventh in defensive efficiency. |
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07-05-21 | Lightning -148 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -148 | 33 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bit of a tough call here as you know the Lightning would prefer to clinch the Cup on home ice and the players might be a little tired of being in that Montreal bubble due to COVID restrictions. One figures the Habs come out firing with nothing to lose -- that also could weaken their defense in front of Carey Price. He's a future Hall of Famer but has been very shaky in this series with a 4.38 GAA and a .835 save percentage. Some had speculated Jake Allen might get the call in Game 4, but it will be Price. I simply can't come up with enough reasons to justify picking Montreal with the talent gap between these teams. Maybe if the Canadiens had a full building of fans. And the puckline on the Habs at -200 is simply not worth it. Tampa sweeps to repeat |
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07-05-21 | Reds +112 v. Royals | 6-2 | Win | 112 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are 0-9 as favorites in the first game of a series with no rest after a loss as home underdogs in which they never led. The Reds are 7-0 in the first game of a road series with no rest after a come-from-behind win as home favorites and it is before the All-Star break. |
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07-05-21 | Tigers +142 v. Rangers | 7-3 | Win | 142 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers are 0-7 as favorites after a road game in which their opponent scored first. The Tigers are 4-0 in the first game of a series with no rest as 140-plus underdogs following a home game when playing a team that has a worse record. Detroit scored at least seven runs in each of the four wins. |
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07-05-21 | Phillies v. Cubs -137 | 13-3 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have lost nine straight, but this is the spot where they end their skid. Five of those nine losses came by one run, including the past three. Tonight they're facing lefty Matt Moore and they're much better versus southpaws. The Phils are facing right-hander Zach Davies, and they're much worse versus righties. The Cubs are 26-13 at home while the Phils are 15-26 on the road. |
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07-05-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | 4-5 | Loss | -151 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are 0-14 as 140-plus home underdogs after a game as underdogs in which they scored six or more runs. The Dodgers are 10-0 as favorites following a game as favorites in which they had more strikeouts than hits, and 9-0 as road favorites with RHP Walker Buehler when they won as home favorites in his previous start. |
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07-04-21 | Red Sox v. A's -112 | 1-0 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland is 30-18, when off a win. The opposite figures to be true for Boston. Pivetta goes for the visitors. He's got a 4.43 ERA overall and a 5.06 ERA his past three starts. Last time out, he gave up six runs, on nine hits, against the Royals. He was taken deep three times, in just 4 1/3 innings. On the other hand, Kaprielian is off b2b quality starts. On the season, he's got a dominant 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP, when starting at home. |
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07-04-21 | Astros -141 v. Indians | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston will turn to right-hander Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.65 ERA) today in a bid to complete the series sweep. Greinke, 37, followed up four wins in a five-start stretch by settling for a no-decision against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The former AL Cy Young Award recipient allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings before exiting after 96 pitches. Greinke owns a 10-9 record with a 3.75 ERA in 29 career appearances against Cleveland. Cesar Hernandez (5-for-13) has fared well versus the hurler, however Franmil Reyes is singing a vastly different tune by going 1-for-7 with three strikeouts. Cleveland right-hander Cal Quantrill (0-2, 4.11) will provide the opposition today. Quantrill, 26, recorded his fifth straight no-decision on Wednesday after permitting four runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers. Quantrill has yet to secure a decision in two career relief appearances versus Houston. He has yielded one run on three hits in 2 1/3 innings against the Astros. |
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07-04-21 | Padres v. Phillies +118 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Padres' hopes for a break-even trip rest with Snell, who is 0-3 in eight road starts this season with a 10.36 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .328 against Snell on the road this season, where he has a 2.233 WHIP. At home, Snell is 3-0 with a 1.43 ERA in seven starts. On the road, he has given up 33 runs on 40 hits and 24 walks with 35 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings over eight starts. Velasquez has been very impressive against the Padres. In four previous appearances (three starts) against the Padres, Velasquez is 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA, a 0.574 WHIP and a .132 opponents' batting average. In 22 2/3 innings, Velasquez has given up three runs to the Padres on 10 hits and three walks with 30 strikeouts. That is a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk average compared to a 2.15-to-1 mark this season. |
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07-03-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -142 | 7-3 | Loss | -142 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners' late inning magic reappeared again last night as they beat Texas 5-4 in 10 innings. The win improved Seattle to 19-7 in one-run games and 9-1 in extra innings. Both of those win totals are highest in the majors. Last night's win was also the fifth straight over the Rangers, going back to a Memorial Day Weekend sweep that took place here in Seattle. Texas is now 0-13 its last 13 games in Seattle. No reason to think anything will be different here as Seattle seems to be on a roll right now. They've won nine times in the last 12 games and have also already beaten Jordan Lyles (the starter today for Texas) once this year. Marco Gonzales returns from the paternity list to pitch for the Mariners. He had a solid June and also pitches better at home than on the road. |
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07-03-21 | White Sox -104 v. Tigers | 5-11 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have now won five in a row, while extending their lead in the AL Central to six games. They are now 9-2 vs. Detroit in head to head play (+$420), while bringing an 18-7 record vs. left-handers into today's contest. The Tigers have been profitable in 2021, but they average just 4.0 runs per game on offense. Dallas Keuchel has looked sharp in recent outings (2.80 ERA last two, +$465 overall) so we'll lay the short price on the road favorite this afternoon. |
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07-03-21 | Cubs +115 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Forget Tyler Mahle! In a quest to target against a wider range of apparently vulnerable starters as other reliable play-ons and play-against have had their value reach questionable statuses, we’re in the early stages of a crusade against this guy. He couldn’t outpitch J.A. Over-the-Hill Happ for us two starts ago, fueling a BEST BET winner against Mahle next time out when he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs (2 homers) in 6 innings vs. Atlanta. He threw 105 pitches in those six innings, and needed 93 to complete 4 innings in his Happ-less loss. In the event Mahle does well, there is always the Reds’ bullpen to help the other side’s cause. The Cubs definitely bring the better relief crew to the table here, with Reds’ manager David Bell having his choice of fellows who’ve combined for the National League’s second highest bullpen ERA, 5.36. The fact that five of them gave up 0 runs on 1 hit in 4 innings after Sonny Gray left last night makes it seem like early fireworks are due from it tonight. |
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07-02-21 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Switching ballparks from Fenway to Oakland’s spacious layout would certainly seem to present obstacles to run-scoring that didn’t exist during the Red Sox’ home series against Kansas City in which they hung 6, 7, 6 and 15 runs on the old scoreboard. But the words “certainly seem” are merely an abstract. What “seems to be” isn’t necessarily what is. In brief exposure to A’s starter Frankie Montas, Red Sox batters like Michael Chavis, Rafael Devers, Marwin Gonzalez, J.D. Martinez and Danny Santana are 2-for-3, 2-for-3, 2-for-4, 2-for-6 and 4-for-7. Sure, most of that was in one game at Fenway in 2019, eons ago but still, hot is hot and the Red Sox average 5.0 runs per game on the road. Surely, A’s manager Bob ‘Let Me Find a Guy Who’ll Get Rocked’ Melvin can choose somebody capable of giving up some runs in the 3-4 innings that Montas won’t finish. Meanwhile, Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an average of 4.3 runs per start in his last nine and that’s in a maximum of two-thirds of a game, a level he didn’t reach two-thirds of the time. |
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07-02-21 | Lightning -127 v. Canadiens | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Montreal won't have a huge home-ice advantage because Quebec rejected the team's request to increase attendance from 3,500 to 10,500 for the Stanley Cup Final. That might matter a bit because Tampa played and won in very hostile environments in south Florida, Raleigh and Long Island. This game may feel like nothing in that regard. The Habs will get back coach Dominique Ducharme as he comes out of COVID protocols. While the Canadiens played vastly better in Game 2, they still couldn't solve Andrei Vasilevskiy. I simply can't pick the Canadiens because of how good Vasilevskiy has been. Tampa is the better team and having to only pay -127 is worth it. |
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07-02-21 | Marlins +104 v. Braves | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The young Marlins, who are 5-2 against Atlanta, did not have a starter named to the July 13 All-Star Game. Miami (34-45) split the first two games of its series in Philadelphia, but the scheduled Thursday game was postponed because of rain. The early rainout decision means the Marlins will be able to slide right-hander Pablo Lopez (4-4, 2.87 ERA) into the series opener against Atlanta lefty Drew Smyly (5-3, 4.79) today. Lopez earned a win in his latest outing, June 25 against the Washington Nationals, when he allowed two runs on six hits in six innings and tied his season high with nine strikeouts. Lopez has held opponents to one or fewer runs in seven of his 16 starts and two runs or fewer in 13 outings. He was 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in June. |
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07-02-21 | Brewers v. Pirates +107 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Living in slumdog territory is a bad habit but it’s okay to visit occasionally into what appears to be favorable circumstances. Brubaker doesn’t have to try to clean up a corrupt Arkansas prison system like Robert Redford attempted in the 1980 movie of the same name. He just needs to pitch as steady as he has been lately during 5-3, 2-1, 3-2 and 5-3 losses to the Cardinals, Indians, Nationals and Dodgers in his last four starts. His home ERA is 2.67. He beat the Brewers 6-1 in Milwaukee on April 16 with 6 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball, 8-0 K-BB. Piece o’ cake for the kid, no? |
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07-01-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies +118 | 2-5 | Win | 118 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have beaten opposing aces at home in recent weeks, as well as other assorted types of pitchers. They’ve always been one of the most polarized home-road teams in sports but this season is really ridiculous with the performance/result disparities, scoring only 2.62 runs per game on the road while allowing 5.46, but averaging 5.80 runs per game at Coors Field while allowing 4.61. Adam Wainwright, just another guy at this point, one with a 6.31 road ERA so far in 2021. If Colorado can beat guys like Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff in this park, then there’s no reason they can’t beat Wainwright (unless they happen to score at least one fewer run than the Cardinals). When Wainwright gets 2 strikes on a batter he most often throws a curveball next, because with an average fastball velocity of only 87.9 mph, a fastball at that point is easier to time and connect on. But everybody knows curveballs don’t curve as much as a pitcher would like them to curve in Coors Field. He could very well be in a no-win position there. |
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07-01-21 | Mets -157 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves exploded for 20 runs in a blowout vs. the Mets last night, but they will face a much tougher opponent in Jacob deGrom, who has posted a microscopic 0.69 ERA in 12 starts so far. New York has been profitable against the Braves in head to head play (+$385), and they've racked up huge winnings against right-handers in 2011 (+$815). Atlanta has lost substantially vs. righties (-$1060) so we'll lay the price on the best starting pitcher in MLB. |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Several Atlanta players produced efficient performances on Sunday and they were up a bucket with 12 minutes to play. One of the turning points occurred when Milwaukee was able to keep Trae Young off the free-throw line. He took 12 free throws in the Game One Hawks win but only was on the charity stripe 6 times on Sunday. Young was extremely unlucky. He stepped on the ref Sean Wright’s foot late in the third quarter and although he came back, he was not right. Bogdan Bogdanovic is playing with a lot of heart for Atlanta but he is just not himself, either. He was only 3 for 16 from the floor in Game Three and he must be attacked by the Bucks when Milwaukee is on offense. Bogdan was 2 for 11 from beyond the arc on Sunday (he shot the long ball at 44%, regular season). He is clearly hampered. An MRI Monday revealed a bone bruise on Young’s right foot. He will in all likelihood play but his blow-by speed, which allows him to shoot that pretty floater, figures to be affected. Milwaukee was a +15 in rebounds in the last game and a +22 in points in the paint. Giannis Antetokounmpo has adjusted his game and has just been relentless going to the rack. He only took 2 shots from downtown on Sunday and that is playing to the strength of his game. Bobby Portis gave Milwaukee a huge boost off the bench in the last game, which figures to continue. Khris Middleton showed up and scored 20 of his 38 points in the fourth quarter Sunday. For all the talk about the free-throw woes of Giannis, Atlanta was worse percentage-wise from the charity stripe on Sunday. The Hawks just have no answer for Giannis. |
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06-29-21 | Diamondbacks +139 v. Cardinals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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06-29-21 | Mets v. Braves -159 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -159 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The underdog Cubs were battling for us in the bottom of the eighth of a 4-4 game last night, when something clicked in manager David Ross’s brain that he should do his best to lose the game. First, he summoned something called Ryan Tepera from the bullpen to give up four runs while getting only two outs. Then, he called upon Trevor McGill to get the last out. He didn’t. McGill gave up 6 more runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, 2 home runs in that mix, failing to retire a batter. Tonight, Megill’s younger brother Tylor starts for the Mets. Remember |
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06-29-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both the Mariners and Blue Jays are 13-11 in June. Toronto will start left-hander Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.35 ERA) against Seattle right-hander Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.87). Ray is 0-1, 3.71, in three career games against Seattle. Flexen will be facing Toronto for the first time. |
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06-29-21 | Marlins -108 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vince Velasquez (2-2, 4.74 ERA) will make his 12th start of the season for Philadelphia. In his career against the Marlins, he is 5-4 with a 4.54 ERA in 18 starts. He beat them 2-0 in Miami on May 25 when he threw six shutout innings. The Marlins arrive in Philadelphia coming off a four-game split with the visiting Washington Nationals. Miami had a day off Monday. The Marlins' Tuesday starter, rookie Trevor Rogers (7-4, 2.08 ERA), has been one of the top pitchers in the NL all season. For his career against the Phillies, Rogers is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA in three starts. |
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06-29-21 | Angels +139 v. Yankees | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York's Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.18 ERA), who is coming off his best start of the season, seeks to win consecutive starts for the first time since winning four straight starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates from Aug. 25-Sept. 12, 2018. aillon ended an eight-start winless streak Thursday when he allowed one run on five hits in 6 1/3 innings during an 8-1 win over the Kansas City Royals. Before that start, he was 0-2 with a 5.80 ERA since his other win on May 1 against the Detroit Tigers. aillon is facing the Angels for the first time and hopes to have better success against Ohtani than did Michael King, who allowed a homer on an 80 mph curveball. Los Angeles left-hander Andrew Heaney (4-5, 4.72) looks to avoid a third straight loss. After going 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA from May 25-June 8, Heaney has allowed eight runs on 15 hits spanning 11 innings against the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants, respectively. Heaney is 1-1 with a 3.47 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees. He last opposed the Yankees on Sept. 19, 2019, in New York when he allowed six runs on five hits in five innings and took the loss. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | 116-102 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If L.A. was at full force, that being with a willing and able Kawhi Leonard on the court and a healthy Marcus Morris, they would still be holding out hope that they can win this series. Morris is clearly not himself and he is coming off a 2 for 8 performance in the loss on Saturday. Kawhi has yet to play in this series and even if he does miraculously return, will he be the Kawhi that can dominate games? Probably not. Losing Kawhi is the equivalent of losing Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo. Game Four was an ugly one. L.A. was only 5 for 31 from deep while the Suns were not much better as they hit on only 4 of 20 from beyond the arc. The top scorers on L.A. were a combined 13 for 44 from the floor while the Suns starting guards could only hit on 14 of 44 from the field. The Clips had 15 offensive rebounds but the Suns Deandre Ayton had 9 all by his lonesome. His play was the determining factor in the win by Phoenix. Ayton has had double figure rebounds in 9 of 14 playoff games this season including the 22-rebound outburst on Saturday. Ayton is shooting it at 71% in his 14 playoff games, is averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds. This is a lot of points to give up in an elimination game but including the playoffs this season, the Suns are 52-32-2 against the spread. During the regular season, Phoenix had the fourth best record at home at 27 and 9. They are looking to make the NBA Finals for the first time since 1993 and the near 17,000 expected to be in the stands will be going bonkers. |
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06-28-21 | Cubs +135 v. Brewers | 4-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This looks so easy for the host Brewers, doesn’t it? The Cubs lost the ESPN Sunday Night game against the Dodgers last night, flailing at Clayton Kershaw for 8 innings in a game they probably should have forfeited when it was 6-0 Dodgers in the second. Instead, they got a late start on the way to Milwaukee, losing a few hours crossing time zones. But we’ve seen this before and it often has no effect on the outcome. The lousy Twins killed Cleveland something like 10-0 one night after a long road trip out West in the latest that comes to mind. When it comes down to it, it’s professionals trying their best in a game that’s at least 70% pitching, maybe more. Probably more. The Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks had people concerned that he might be over the hill earlier this season when he got lit up like a Christmas tree in four of his first seven starts. His ERA was 6.09 on May 9. But in eight starts since — all of them victories by these Chicago Cubs — Hendricks has lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.84 with eight straight quality starts, ‘quality start’ meaning at least 6 innings pitched, with a maximum of 3 runs allowed. In his last two starts, Hendricks hasn’t allowed a run and has a scoreless streak of 15 innings. During his lousy period, he nevertheless made two starts against the Brewers in a 16-day span, pitching 6 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball the first time then 6 innings of 6-hit, 2-run ball the next. You can’t knock the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta with his 2.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Those are wowee kazowee figures. But Hendricks has been at his craft with strings of successes much longer than Milwaukee’s 25-year old, who, if he makes it past the fourth inning tonight, will surpass his previously high number of MLB innings pitched (81) in his four seasons. The Cubs’ bullpen is good enough to have contributed three different relievers for three total innings of the team’s no-hitter at the Dodgers last Thursday night when they beat Walker Buehler, who hadn’t been dealt a losing decision in 23 consecutive regular-season starts. And, the Brewers have averaged the fewest hits per game in the National League (7.03), only 6.72 his per game at home. |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams obviously have not played each other this season although they do know each other well from the Atlantic division. Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy have been the two best goalies in the playoffs and I don’t think that will change for the Stanley Cup Finals. There should be a good amount of time spent feeling each other out in this game, so while I do think there is a risk to push with the total at 5, there shouldn’t be too many goals. The Canadiens penalty kill didn’t allow a power play goal to the Knights all series. The Lightning have one of the best power plays in the league but if the Canadiens hold them off the scoreboard on the power play they should hit the under. |
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06-28-21 | Royals v. Red Sox -149 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston owns the AL's best record at 47-31 (.603), while Kansas City is just 33-43 (.434). The Red Sox come in on a high, while the Royals come in losers of 17 of 21. I'm not sure why the Royals are starting Duffy here (third appearance since Wednesday, after coming off a month-long stint on the IL), especially considering Duffy is 0-6 with a 7.26 ERA in eight career starts against Boston (team is 1-7). That record is by far his worst against any major league team he has faced more than three times. As for Richards, he is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 games (five starts / team is 4-1) versus Kansas City. |
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06-27-21 | Indians +128 v. Twins | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units MLB Play of the Day Well, speak of the devil, it’s J.A. Happ’s turn to start for the Twins. Following yesterday’s rainout, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli has opted to go with the struggling southpaw instead of skipping him and allowing Kenta Maeda his usual turn, despite the fact that the fewest number of runs scored by the opponent in a Happ start in May and June has been 5, with him giving up the vast majority of them. The guy needed 108 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings vs. the Reds on Monday, when he walked 5 and gave up 2 home runs. Indians’ rookie Sudden Sam Hentges, like Kyle Muller above, gets his second MLB start after a very good first one that can’t be taken too seriously. But Hentges is in one of those situations where he is eligible to be carried by the baseball gods, as a native Minnesotan who grew up a Twins fan living and going to school 20 minutes from Target Field. In this stadium, 2014, he pitched a complete-game, high school State Championship victory. A kid gets only one chance in his life to make his first-ever start against the hometown team that didn’t draft him. |
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06-27-21 | Braves +135 v. Reds | 4-0 | Win | 135 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tyler Mahle… forget him! This guy couldn’t outpitch J.A. Happ for us earlier this week, and Happ was his usual lousy self. Mahle has good numbers overall but he wasn’t going very deep into most of starts, his pitch counts for lower-than-desired innings are high, and his best outings in the last month have been against opponents with weak sticks: Colorado (not in Coors), Milwaukee, St. Louis (fewest runs scored the last month) and the Cubs (worst team batting average, sub-.200, the last month). Therefore, as Ralph Kramden and Mr. Monahan were very much aware, “Muller’s the man!…” The Braves’ righthander is just a rookie in his second MLB start and his 4 innings of 1-hit, 1-run ball at the Mets on June 21 is isn’t enough to be worthy of excessive praise, but… Mahle! Ugh! He put us in position to suffer the ultimate in ironic humiliation in the Reds’ loss at Minnesota when our precious, pet reliable whipping boy Matt Shoemaker got the win in relief after they decided what we already knew, that he wasn’t good enough to start. The Reds’ bullpen behind Mahle has MLB’s highest ERA, 5.64, and is ready, willing and able to undo any good that their starter might do. |
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06-27-21 | Astros -165 v. Tigers | 1-2 | Loss | -165 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal (4-7, 4.33 ERA), today's scheduled starter, labored through his last start and was removed one out before he was eligible for the win. Skubal gave up two runs on four hits and walked two in 4 2/3 innings while throwing 97 pitches against St. Louis on Tuesday. Astros right-hander Jake Odorizzi (2-3, 4.75), who will oppose Skubal, hasn't given up an earned run in his last two appearances. He tossed four scoreless innings in a relief stint against Texas on June 15, then held Baltimore hitless in a five-inning start while striking out nine on Monday. Odorizzi returned late last month after missing more than a month of action due to a right pronator muscle strain. Odorizzi has made 13 career starts against the Tigers, posting a 6-2 record and 3.58 ERA. |
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06-27-21 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington at Miami (Scherzer vs. Alcantara) Was goin’ this way and that way on Phillies at Mets, Wheeler/Stroman or this match-up for an Under. Landed on this one because in his first start under the “Let’s check this guy!” rules, Zack Wheeler of the Phillies had his worst start of the season earlier this week. Aha! We’ve got our eye on you, fella. Anyway, Max Scherzer survived three checks by Joe Girardi in that game when matched against Wheeler. Marlins who |
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06-26-21 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Padres | 10-1 | Win | 115 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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06-26-21 | Cubs +1.5 v. Dodgers | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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06-26-21 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | 2-4 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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06-26-21 | Rockies +1.5 v. Brewers | 4-10 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Though the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies are at opposite ends of the ladder in the NL, they've been quite competitive against each other this season. Following a fourth straight matchup decided by one run, the Rockies and Brewers continue their weekend series Saturday in Milwaukee. Sitting 10 games over .500 and in the mix for the lead in the NL Central, Milwaukee has won three straight and five of the last six games. |
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago is 6-14 in their last 20 games as a road underdog and 9-24 in their last 33 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. While LA is 97-45 in their last 142 games vs. a right-handed starter, 27-13 in their last 40 during game 2 of a series, and 41-20 in their last 61 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. In addition, Chicago is 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles. |
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06-25-21 | A's v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units 88% humidity with 17 mph wind blowing out to left-center field. Good night for the ball to carry farther than normal. Giants’ home games from their last two series at Candlestick, er, Pac Bell, er, whatever tit’s called, have ended in scores of 9-8, 13-7, 10-3, 13-6 and 11-2. A’s manager Bob Melvin did not use Burch Smith or Jesus Luzardo in relief of Chris Bassitt after Bassitt once again gave us the super pro-jock effort in victory, so he is eligible to summon them from the visiting bullpen to help pad the run total of tonight’s outing. Johnny Cueto has allowed 3 to 5 runs in four of his last five starts and if the Giants’ bullpen was in great shape, then those recent home scores wouldn’t have been as high as they were. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -8.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units That was a nice, brisk pace they played at in Game 1, going up and down quickly and putting up shots relatively early in the clock. A lot of them didn’t go in but both the Bucks and Hawks seemed very comfortable in their offensive flows. It was “one of those nights” for three-point shooting, with Atlanta 8-for-32 and Milwaukee 8-for-36, as this league has deteriorated into a place where a guy can get a maximum contract, have many nights of 0-for-9 three-point shooting (as the Bucks’ Khris Middleton once again had on Wednesday) and not be mandated to give back any of the money for stinking up the joint, again. Then you had his teammate, Pat, Con-all-for-Naught-on, contributing 0-for-4 on treys and Brook Lopez, a seven-footer, shooting more than half of his paltry total of 7 field goal attempts from three-point range, making only 1. Kevin Huerter and John Collins, the latter a 6’10” guy, combined to be 1-for-11 on threes for Atlanta. Collins was 10-for-11 inside the arc but was determined to take some shots he couldn’t make. In losing Game 1, the Bucks continued their two-season trend of Game 1 losses or non-covers in victory. No surprise there. All of these shooting clowns on both sides are due for better results from beyond the arc but if Milwaukee chokes off Trae Young’s dribble penetration — which they switched to doing with good results during too-little, too-late time — then they should clear the point spread bar in another game we like to go Over the total. |
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox -173 | 9-3 | Loss | -173 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (4-3, 3.46 ERA) gets the call for the Mariners, as he aims to continue a strong showing in June. Kikuchi has worked seven innings in each of his past two starts while scattering one run and seven hits with six walks and 12 strikeouts. He has struggled against the White Sox in his career, however, going 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in two starts -- a ledger of 11 runs allowed, nine earned, in 7 1/3 innings. Lefty Carlos Rodon (6-2, 1.83 ERA) is set to start for the White Sox. Rodon is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four career starts against the Mariners and has pitched to a 1.42 ERA in three starts in June. |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 6-1-3 in Islanders last 10 games playing on 1 days rest, 8-2-2 in Islanders last 12 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 7-3-3 in Islanders last 13 playoff games as an underdog. While the over is 3-1-1 in Lightning last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226 | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as a road underdog, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games, and 9-2 in Hawks last 11 games following a straight up win. While the under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 home games, 5-1-1 in Bucks last 7 overall, and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as a home favorite. |
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06-23-21 | Lightning -139 v. Islanders | 2-3 | Loss | -139 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Lightning expect a far better effort from the Islanders in front of what will surely be a raucous crowd at Nassau Coliseum, New York's task might be even tougher considering that Tampa Bay has not lost back-to-back playoff games since being swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2019 Eastern Conference first round. Today, the Lightning will be looking to extend the dominance it began displaying in the third period of Game 4 Saturday night, when Tampa Bay scored twice and Ryan McDonagh was robbed of a game-tying goal when Islanders defenseman Ryan Pulock slid across the crease to deflect the puck just before time expired in New York's 3-2 win. The 10 goals in the last four periods are three more than the Lightning scored in the first 11 periods of the series. Consider that Tampa Bay is 13-5 in their last 18 playoff games as a favorite. |
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06-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Marlins +109 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Results with Robbie Ray starting are 6-7 for the Blue Jays, favored on the road tonight against one of MLB’s hottest new starters, Trevor Rogers of the Marlins. The Marlins ain’t hitting much, it’s true, but the DH-less Blue Jays eked only 2 runs across the plate in last night’s 2-1 win and have never faced Rogers, who, after 14 starts, has a 7-3 record, 1.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 95-26 K-BB in 81 2/3 innings. Blue Jays’ manager Charlie Montoyo returns from a one-game suspension with the added responsibility of deciding whether or not to pinch-hit for Ray, or leave him in. ‘Oh, no, what do I do? I actually have to manage.’ At least Don Mattingly, not headed for the managerial hall of fame, does this every day or night 162 times a year. |
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06-23-21 | Royals +163 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Michael King (0-3, 4.08 ERA), who is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA as starting pitcher, will make his fifth start for the Yankees. King most recently pitched Thursday and allowed three runs and five hits in 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Toronto Blue Jays. Kansas City will welcome Danny Duffy (4-3, 1.94) back from the injured list for his first start since May 12. Duffy will make his 200th career start after being sidelined with a left-forearm flexor strain. Duffy matches up well against a Yankee team that averages just 3.6 runs per game vs. left-handers. |
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06-23-21 | Astros -185 v. Orioles | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Jose Urquidy (5-3, 3.65 ERA) will try to close out the sweep for Houston in his first outing against the Orioles in his career. Thomas Eshelman (0-0, 1.93) will start for Baltimore and will make his debut against Houston. The right-hander was called up from Triple-A Norfolk when Bruce Zimmermann (biceps tendinitis) went on the injured list. The Orioles have not been able to do much against Houston's pitching in this series. They did not get a hit until the eighth inning Monday and finished with just two in a 10-2 loss. Baltimore fared a bit better Tuesday, ending up with six hits, but the Orioles have a total of three runs and eight hits in the first two games of the series. The Orioles have lost four straight. |
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06-22-21 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After 1-hitting the Mets for 101 pitches through 7 innings on June 4, Blake Snell couldn’t last more than 4 innings in his next two starts at the Mets and Rockies, giving up 14 hits and 10 runs in a total of 7 1/3 innings. Maybe there’s a reason the Rays’ manager took him out early in the World Series. Although you usually want to go Under or Nowhere when two aces oppose, Snell is not pitching like an ace. The excellent first try vs. the Mets was an exception to his general 2021 rule in a season where his ERA and WHIP are 5.72 and 1.57 and the Padres, a 43-32 team, are 5-9 in his 14 starts. Meanwhile, Kershaw gave up 3 runs in 7 innings losing 6-1 to the Padres on 4/23. Three runs in a Kershaw start is a good number and he’s actually allowed 4 or 5 in four of his last nine starts. It’s getting near the All-Star break so he’s due for the injured list. |