Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -135 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Prescott is 4-1 SUATS under the Monday Night lights. He is also 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in games when the Boys are coming off a spread loss of more than 17 points. Meanwhile, Dallas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when coming off a loss, as well as 5-0 SUATS away on Mondays when coming off a loss of 14 or more points. And we didn’t even mention the team’s 18-8 SU and 19-6-1 ATS mark in away games when coming off an away game, including 9-1 SUATS when coming off a setback. The Chargers check in just 1-4 SUATS on Mondays when coming off a Bye and 1-5-1 ATS coming off a SUATS win when hosting non-division opponents foes coming off a loss. Finally, the Cowboys’ defense is 112 YPG better than the Bolts, and that’s what figures to decide this contest. |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks +152 v. Phillies | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are enjoying an incredible run, winning all five playoff games and doing so against division winners. They swept Milwaukee and easily swept the Dodgers by outscoring them 19-6. Arizona is known for the hitting but the pitching has been incredible, allowing three or fewer runs in all five postseason games. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen limited the Brewers and Dodgers to just two runs spanning 11.1 innings in this postseason. Gallen has dominated the Phillies throughout his career, sporting a dazzling 2.22 ERA and a 3-1 record in 24.1 innings. While the Phillies have also been dominant, Arizona scored four runs against Wheeler in the first meeting this season. Arizona has won all four playoff road games. |
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10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The numbers heading into game two point in many ways to the Rangers taking a 2-0 lead in this series. They have won six straight games, Nathan Eovaldi is 2-0 in the playoffs, and the Astros are now four games under .500 at home this season. Intangibles still count for something, but I will back this Astros team coming off a World Series title and making their seventh straight appearance in the ALCS. Houston turns to lefty Framber Valdez in game two and, while the lefty is just 1-2 against the Rangers this season and 0-1 in this postseason, his career mark of 7-3 in the playoffs proves he is a big-game pitcher. On Monday afternoon, Valdez will need to be all that and more against the Rangers. One thing to note from Sunday night's game is the Rangers' quiet night at the plate. The Rangers have been notoriously streaky at the plate and were quiet in game one with just six hits. The Astros' bats were equally quiet in game one but watch out for a big night from Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is hitting .714 in his career vs. Eovaldi including a home run and a double with 3 RBI. Kyle Tucker, who has struggled in the playoffs, is hitting .333 with a home run in his career vs. Eovaldi. Lastly, Houston should have Michael Brantley in at DH vs. Eovaldi and he has a home run and five RBI in his career against the veteran Rangers' righty. I expect the Astros' heavy hitters to lead the way this afternoon and help tie this series up. |
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10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The bottom line tonight, though, is we can’t lay a number like this with a team that played in London last week. And not when NFL Sunday Night home favorites of 7 or more points are just 12-22-1 ATS against non-division foes. The Giants allow 5.3 Yards Per Rush while the Bills permit 5.8 Yards Per Rush. We realize this matchup doesn't necessarily pass the smell test but forget about that and instead focus on the fact that NFL .600 or greater teams returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss, are 0-5 SUATS all-time. |
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10-15-23 | Rangers v. Astros -131 | 2-0 | Loss | -131 | 35 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the regular season can't be used as a full barometer of things to come, the Astros did take nine of the 13 meetings between the two teams this season. More importantly, the Astros closed with wins in seven of their final eight games against the Rangers. Houston pounded out a whopping 30 home runs against the Rangers in the 13 games including 25 in the last seven meetings. The Astros' power surge has continued in the playoffs with 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. The addition of former MVP Abreu seemed to be a modest one for much of the season but he has caught fire in the postseason with three home runs in his last two games and should be chomping at the bit to face the left-handed Montgomery. The Rangers will not be lacking in offense either, however, as they rank first in the playoffs with six runs per game after finishing third overall during the regular season. The big edge for Houston in this game and this series is in the bullpen. While Texas has the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the playoffs, they have not been put into too many high-leverage situations thus far and the team has relied on manager Bochy to cobble together pitchers in the late innings. During the regular season, that was very apparent with Texas' bullpen ranking 24th in ERA in baseball. The Astros bullpen, while lacking any left-handed arms, is well constructed and roles are well defined. Houston finished the regular season with the league's sixth-best bullpen ERA and it was their bullpen that carried them to the World Series last season. Closer Ryan Pressley is a perfect 13-of-13 in save chances in the postseason in his career. Verlander can and will at least match Montgomery in innings in the opener and hand the ball over to a more capable bullpen. |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Jacksonville is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as home favorites behind QB Trevor Lawrence. Game Six of the season has been more like a devilish 6-6-6 to the Jags as they are 1-12 SU in Game Six the last 13 years, including 0-6 ATS at home. That’s chock full of bad numbers, if ever there were any. If you think those bad numbers, consider that Jacksonville is 2-14 SU and 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game! |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins -14 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers are 3-44 SU and 9-36-2 ATS in games in which they surrender 17 or more points, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS versus AFC foes. It’s been a rough start for Carolina QB Bryce Young, the top overall pick in last year’s NFL draft. He ranks No. 32 overall – last overall among the league’s starting quarterbacks – with a 28.6 QBR. Miami’s 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record in games where they are coming off an ATS win when taking on foes coming off an ATS loss sets the table. Carolina’s 1-6 ATS all-time mark in this series seals the deal. |
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10-15-23 | Vikings -155 v. Bears | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This contest finds Minnesota coming off a loss while the Bears enter off a win. That fits Minny’s M.O. as they are 7-2 ATS in games when coming off a home dog loss. They are also 9-2 ATS versus opponents that scored 40+ points in their last game. Chicago got off the schneid in a dramatic way last Thursday with a 40-20 upset win over Washington, but they are only 2-8 SUATS in games when scoring a victory in its previous game, as well as 3-7 ATS after posting 40+ points. With Da Bears 1-9 ATS in their last ten division home games and having allowed season high yards in three of their last four games, it's the Vikings day today. |
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10-15-23 | Ravens -4 v. Titans | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Titans gained 400 yards two weeks ago facing the Bengals and then another 347 this past weekend. It appears the offense has come alive, but the defense yielded a season-high 429 yards in last week’s loss at Indianapolis. With NFL teams who are dining on tea and crumpets 6-1 ATS as favorites when arriving here off a SU favorite loss, we take added solace in knowing Jackson is 24-11 SU and 22-11-2 ATS away from home with the Ravens, including 4-0-2 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Tennessee is 1-13-1 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of 5 or fewer points versus AFC North opponents. |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units UM is better than last year’s brutally disappointing squad and the Canes are one of 16 teams unbeaten In the Stats; of course UNC is also one of the 16 but the Tar Heels are a sticky 3-7 ATS in the second of three straight home games. Mack Brown’s team is 5-0, and he could have been joined by Mario Cristobal’s Canes, who instead are 4-1. Finally, UNC is 4-11 SU and 1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home game, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite. |
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10-14-23 | Marshall +1.5 v. Georgia State | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Herd stepped up in class last weekend and nearly shocked NC State so stepping back into conference play should be a little easier, even though Georgia State is 9-0 ATS in games when last week’s opponent was a dog. Downtown Atlanta’s Team may be 4-1 overall but 2-3 In the Stats and 0-3 at home since 2020 when coming off a home loss. Marshall remains a rugged defensive presence, made all the tougher by the Herd’s 7-2-1 ATS away mark when coming off one-loss-exact, backed up by 4-0 ATS when not laying 3 points or more. Finally, teams in Game 6 coming off one loss are 20-4-1 ATS. |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
ACC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Panthers rush defense is best in the nation. In this series, Pitt is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS plus 8-1 ATS coming off a conference game. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS as a dog coming off a SU favorite loss, including 3-0 ATS at home. Finally, playing against any college football favorite who defeated Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if they beat the spread by 10 or more points in the win and they are facing a .600 or fewer opponent is 14-0-1 ATS. |
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10-14-23 | Oregon +3 v. Washington | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 70 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Huskies are just 16-30 ATS in Pac-12 games since 2017, including 8-17 ATS at home. Looking deeper, Washington has failed to cover in their last five games with rest, are 0-4 ATS in Game Six and just 2-6 versus conference revenge. That payback factor was put in place last season when Oregon lost 37-34 as 12-point home chalk to the Huskies in 2022, the first time the Ducks did not cover in this series since Willie Taggart was head coach. Meanwhile, great numbers abide for the Quack Attack: 6-0 ATS in Game Six, 4-1 coming off a conference win of more than 35 points, 5-2 against the spread with rest and 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. Finally, look at their sparkling 8-2 SUATS mark in the last ten Pac-12 games. |
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10-14-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -32.5 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Michigan is 5-0 ATS record at home off consecutive road games, and a near perfect 8-1 ATS success off a road win. Indiana has won only 8 of its last 21 games under soon-to-be-fired head coach Tom Allen and despite the exorbitant spread on today’s game, we can’t back a squad that’s gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as a road dog. |
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10-14-23 | Syracuse +18 v. Florida State | 3-41 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in the last seven away versus an undefeated conference opponent, and the series visitor has cashed four of the last six tickets. Yes, FSU’s offense is scary as hell, but the garnet-and-gold is just 2-7 ATS off a win versus a foe off a loss and 2-5 ATS in the second of 3 straight homers. They’re also just 3-2 ITS (In The Stats) behind a defense that surrenders 364 YPG. Finally, the Syracuse HC is 15-6 ATS away in his career against opponents coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS with revenge against foes coming off a win of 20+ points. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let’s face it: the Broncos' defense is literally nonexistent at this point of the season. In the last two weeks, they surrendered 28 points to the Bears and 31 to the Jets, a pair of teams that no one was going to confuse with a top-five offense in the league. Facing a Kansas City team that hasn’t necessarily hit their stride offensively is going to be a tough hill for the Broncos to climb. The Chiefs have performed well defensively, though they admittedly haven’t faced a Murderer’s Row of offenses to this point of the season. Denver’s last win against the Chiefs came back in September 2015 and they haven’t held Kansas City under 22 points in any of the games in this 15-game skid. Since Denver’s defense is so leaky right now, you have to think that Kansas City rolls up 30-plus points here to earn a home victory, extending their dominance in the series. |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units West Virginia has been out-yarded in its last two victories, both as underdogs, so taking them as road chalk seems like a stretch. Almost Heaven is also just 1-6 ATS off a win versus foe off a loss, and coach Brown is 13-20-2 ATS against .400 or fewer foes, including 6-12-1 ATS when coming off a win. Looking inside Houston’s 49-28 most recent loss at Texas Tech two weeks ago, the Cougs won the stat battle, 489-400. But with Texas on deck, Holgo needs this win. Finally, playing against any college football team coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater foe when a favorite are 18-35-1 ATS, including 8-27-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points. Additionally, these teams fall to 2-20 ATS when facing foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. |
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10-11-23 | Astros +111 v. Twins | 3-2 | Win | 111 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston has been reliable in big spots, while Minnesota is finally feeling like a winner again. That doesn't work in the Twins' favor today, even at home. I'm betting on the Astros to win straight-up! A lot has been made about Houston's game-four starter, but not enough has been said about Ryan's inexperience and lack of success post-All-Star weekend. The young right-hander appeared to be an ace earlier this season but was a shell of himself in the second half. He was roughed up in his last start and didn't pitch in the Twins' Wild Card round despite being next up in the rotation. I doubt that boosted his ego — now he gets to face the defending champs in a much more important game. If Houston's starter lasts five or six innings, that will be a victory. At the end of the day, though, the onus is on the Astros' lineup to come up clutch. Early run production will be crucial, as well. The same pieces are in place that led this ballclub to a World Series title in 2022 — now it's time to do it again. |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game one was a surprising result but this is a veteran Dodgers squad who won’t be rattled. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen was not able to contain the Dodgers this season. The veteran squandered five runs in 4.2 innings in the first meeting and six runs in 5.1 innings in the second one. The Dodgers bashed four home runs against him. Dodgers’ starter Bobby Miller shut down the Diamondbacks this season, conceding just four runs in 12 innings. The Dodgers won those games by 2-0 and 7-4 scores. Miller posted a solid 3.21 ERA in August and a 3.57 ERA in September. This is a must-win game for the Dodgers and I expect the veteran squad to come through with a convincing home win. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at a pair of teams that have their fair share of questions that lack clear-cut answers. Green Bay is trying to find their run game as they have struggled to move the chains in that regard. Las Vegas has a similar situation as they are dead last in rushing yards per game this season. In addition, the hope is that Garoppolo will be able to play after missing last week with a concussion. O’Connell was decent in his NFL debut but was sacked seven times, six by former Raider Khalil Mack. The Packers have the better team right now and it’s tough to have faith in the Raiders given their problems on both sides of the ball. Take Green Bay on the road in this contest. |
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10-08-23 | Twins +120 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 120 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units López continued to impress in the postseason after holding nine of his last 11 opponents to three or fewer runs. He's part of a Twins rotation that led the big leagues in Ks, and he had better walk numbers than his counterpart Valdez. He and the Minnesota bullpen possess the high-octane stuff that will make life difficult for Houston in game two. Valdez wasn't a reliable pitcher in the second half of the season, surrendering ten runs (nine earned) and eight walks in his last two outings. He gave up four-plus runs in nine of his last 16 appearances and walked two or more batters in 11 of those starts. The southpaw also gave up a career-high 19 home runs this year. That will be problematic against Minnesota (AL-leading 233 long balls). |
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10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Denver ranks dead last in overall defense while being out statted -128 net yards per game. They also allow foes to chew them up on the ground, surrendering 5.6 Yards Per Rush. Finally, the Broncos are 1-14 ATS as a favorite if they were a favorite in their previous game, including 0-12 ATS when they have at least one loss on the season. |
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10-08-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -111 | 11-8 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles are in a tough spot here with Montgomery taking the hill for the Rangers today. Montgomery has been outstanding in his last five starts with an ERA under one in that span. He has also gone at least seven innings in four of those five starts. He will, however, face an Orioles team that now has their legs under them after Saturday's game. The Orioles have consistently bounced back this season after a loss. The Orioles have had only two losing streaks as long as four games all season. Also, the last time the Rangers faced Rodriguez, he was struggling and soon to be sent to the minor leagues. Since then, he has been a completely different pitcher and has been arguably the team's best pitcher down the stretch. His K/9 rate is over ten in his last five starts which will play well against a Rangers' lineup that has struck out 37 times in the last three games. The Orioles lineup, while struggling to produce runs in the opener, did earn five walks and worked the pitch count. The Rangers burned through six pitchers on Saturday and the Orioles will continue to try to work counts and get Montgomery out prior to the seventh. I like the Orioles' chances the second time around against the Rangers' bullpen. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Rams come in with a 6-1 ATS mark in games when both teams are coming off wins as favorites. Philly tends to falter in games against the NFC West, going 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the past 25 contests. When the 2-2 Rams get Cooper Kupp back, it will be a scary tandem alongside rookie Puka Nacua. Nacua had another monster game after totaling 25 catches for 266 yards over the first two weeks, notching nine receptions for 163 yards last Sunday in Los Angeles’ overtime win at Indianapolis. Finally, playing against the defending Super Bowl loser from Game 5 out as an away favorite of fewer than 7 points in a non-division game versus a .333 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Arizona QB Josh Dobbs has sparked the Cardinals’ attack. They’re 3-1 ATS behind him; they beat the Cowboys as a double-digit dog, and they were within five points of the mighty 49ers at the start of the fourth quarter last week. In fact, his final two passes of the game last week were dropped touchdown passes that went right through the hands of two receivers in the end zone. Finally, the Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC West. |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots -118 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame -6 v. Louisville | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Fighting Irish have a 10-0 SUATS win streak against the ACC, including 6-0 SUATS under head coach Marcus Freeman with an average winning margin of 19.5 PPG. Yes, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 this season but they’re a weak 1-3 ATS versus FBS opponents in 2023. Worse, they’re 1-9 ATS after NC State, 1-5 ATS after a Weekday road game, and 3-7 ATS as home dogs of 14 or fewer points. Surprisingly, the stat yards and numbers are close to identical for these two: Notre Dame rushes for 192.2 YPG while Louie rushes for 192.8 YPG, etc. But the Irish are an impressive 17-2 SU and 15-4 away off an away game. |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky +14.5 v. Georgia | 13-51 | Loss | -104 | 75 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Georgia has gone 0-4 ATS in the last four series meetings with Kentucky and some chinks in the Bulldogs’ armor have been exposed versus SEC competition in 2023. Kentucky is 14-1 ATS when coming off a home game and facing a foe coming off an away game. In addition, UK is 8-1 ATS off a win versus an opponent coming off a win and 5-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points. Finally Kentucky is 15-3 ATS with conference revenge the past six seasons, including 7-0 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated. |
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10-07-23 | Colorado v. Arizona State +4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Colorado has been outscored 90-28 in the first half of their last three games. The Buffs are also 1-8 ATS when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, the Arizona State owns the better defense by 136 YPG and are also 9-0 ATS at home in Game Six of the season. They are also 17-9 ATS as a conference home dog, including 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Arizona State is 9-0 ATS as a home dog when both teams are coming off a loss and they are hosting an opponent that allows 23 or more points per game. |
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10-07-23 | Twins v. Astros -145 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a must-win game for Houston, as the Twins are confident and eager to get back home. Stealing a game at Minute Maid Park would be huge for a Minnesota team that fed off the Target Field crowd last series. With that said, I believe the Astros' experience will speak louder than the Twins' passion on Saturday. The acquisition of Verlander put Houston firmly back into the mix in the AL title race, and there's no reason to believe he'll let his team down. The Twins led the AL in home runs, but their offense relies too heavily on the long ball. They also struck out more than any team in baseball this year. Verlander didn't give up a homer in his last three starts after surrendering seven in his first three outings of September. He'll keep the Twins in the yard on Saturday, giving the Astros the quality start they need to win. Minnesota's pitching staff led the league in strikeouts, but Houston's lineup struck out in just 19.8 percent of its ABs this season, the lowest of any team in the postseason. The 'Stros make consistent contact, too, boasting the fifth-lowest whiff rate during the regular season. Ober fanned 17 batters in his last two starts, but those outings were against Oakland and Colorado. The playoff-ready Astros won't make it easy for him or any other Twins pitcher, working their at-bats until they score. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The red-hot Cougars are 4-0 and averaging over 45 PPG, and 17-0 ATS in games following a SU underdog win since 1993. Meanwhile, after getting shut down by a stifling Utah defense, Chip Kelly has had an extra week to prepare for this explosive Washington State team and will be using his 8th-ranked defense to try and slow down the Cougars, who also had the week off. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS with rest in their last seven in that role and further, are 4-11 ATS in regular season conference games when both teams are coming off a Bye week. WSU head coach Jake Dickert is a rising star, and behind him, we think the Cougars are primed for another upset. |
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10-07-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -129 | 3-2 | Loss | -129 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Late Friday evening, the Rangers named left-hander Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA) their Game 1 starter, while right-hander Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83 ERA) will go for Baltimore. Bradish, 27, has been on extended roll. He went 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA in 11 starts during August and September, striking out 73 batters while walking 17 in 64 2/3 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .178 batting average. Including a brief two-inning effort on Sunday, he has thrown 16 consecutive scoreless innings in his past three starts. Orioles pitchers finished fifth in the American League with a 3.89 ERA while the Rangers were 10th at 4.28. Baltimore will be without closer Felix Bautista but still should have the edge in the bullpen, where its relievers pitched to a 3.55 ERA while Texas finished at 4.77. |
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10-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Buffalo +3 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 69 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any college football team in Game 6 of the season who lost their first 4 games of the season if they are coming off their initial win, and they are facing a conference foe who won 8 or fewer games last season is 36-19-2 ATS in all games since 1980, including 23-9 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Better yet, if these same teams are coming off a SUATS win of fewer than 13 points they zoom to 17-4 ATS. That’s the role the Buffalo Bulls find themselves in when they host Central Michigan. Best of all, if the team won 4 or more games the previous season they skyrocket to 14-1-1 ATS in this role. |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Texas | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 68 h 9 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Plenty of smart people also know Texas historically underperforms when this is a heavyweight championship fight of undefeated teams. UT is 1-5 SU and 2-5 ATS when both teams are without a blemish (last time was 2011) and for some strange reason, Texas is 1-7 ATS the week before a bye. Finally, as big as Big Tex, the 55-foot statue that greets you in Fair Park: Texas is 4-16 ATS in its last twenty games against avenging conference opponents, including 0-9 ATS away from home. |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Regardless of the Cowboys’ recent struggles, this is still Mike Gundy country, where the veteran OSU head coach is 22-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Revenge is certainly on the table tonight as well after Kansas State walloped the Pokes last year, 48-0, but while KSU is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 versus Big 12 revenge, that’s where the good news ends for the Wildcats. Head coach Chris Klieman is just 21-25-1 ATS away, including 3-17 SU and 5-14-1 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Then there’s K-State’s 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger on Fridays, including 0-4 SUATS against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the series host is on a 5-0 ATS roll, Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing with revenge, and 5-1 ATS as a conference home dog. Finally, OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in games when the Cowboys sport a .500 win-loss record, including 8-1 and 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record, as well as 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home. |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these squads coming off heartbreakers. What a horrible loss for the Bears to the Broncos. That tied for the biggest blown lead (21 pts) in team history. So now they are 0-4 for the first time since 2000. Justin Fields had a great day (4 TDs/1 INT), D.J. Moore had 8 receptions, 131 yards, & a TD & Kahlil Herbert with 18 carries for 103 yards, but still without a win. Washington will be facing a team which has allowed 25+ pts for an NFL record 14 straight games. The Commanders are 4-1 vs Chicago, but they are only 1-8 as home favorites in October. Finally, Washington is 3-8 ATS at home after a division road game and 3-7 ATS after facing Philadelphia. |
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -143 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies' recent playoff experience showed out in game one as they scored four times in the game despite a lack of power against five different Marlins pitchers. Meanwhile, the Marlins continued their postseason playoff run drought. They have now scored just one run in the team's last three postseason games. The Phillies should also have the advantage in game two with the playoff-savvy Nola taking on Marlins' lefty Garrett. Garrett pitched well down the stretch but posted a 5.40 ERA against the Phillies this year and will be pitching in front of a rabid Philadelphia crowd on Wednesday night. While Nola has not been at his best against the Marlins this season, he is not uncomfortable pitching on a big stage after making five postseason starts last season for the Phillies. He started twice in front of the home crowd last postseason and has a 2.70 ERA. The Marlins poured through five pitchers in game one thanks to Luzardo's exit after four innings. If Garrett falters early, the Marlins' bullpen will have trouble duplicating Tuesday night's performance. |
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10-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins -128 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gray has been one of the game's best starters in 2023, holding 21 of his 32 opponents to two or fewer runs. He was 11th in the AL in innings pitched and 13th in strikeouts, too. With a couple of months of momentum on his side, I'm betting on Gray to turn in a quality start on Wednesday at home (2.67 ERA in 17 starts at Target Field). Berríos has been less effective, giving up eight runs in his last two starts and four-plus runs in five of his last ten outings. The Twins scored 4.8 runs per game at home in 2023, slashing .249 BA/.332 OBP/.448 SLG/.780 OPS in 81 games at Target Field. They have been on a tear since the All-Star break, too (.257 BA/.346 OBP/.462 SLG/.808 OPS in 71 games). |
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10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays -149 | 7-1 | Loss | -149 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eflin gets a chance to live up to the big money deal he signed in the offseason as one of the lone remaining starters standing in the Rays’ rotation. He pitched well in the postseason for the Phillies a season ago and has the edge of the Rangers’ hitters not being overly familiar with his stuff. Eovaldi was a stabilizing force for the Rangers this season but he came apart down the stretch. After missing six-plus weeks and returning on September 5, he went just 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA with 13 walks and 21 strikeouts while allowing seven homers in 20.1 innings in six outings. Opposing hitters lit him up to the tune of a .313/.418/.602 slash line in that stretch. Facing a Tampa Bay lineup that blasted 233 homers this season is going to be an uphill task. Give the advantage to Tampa Bay as they earn the victory here. |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -150 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a matchup of two very familiar foes, I'm going with the home team in game one. On the season, the Marlins won the season series 7-6 over the Phillies but the Phillies did win four of the last seven meetings. Opposing lefties have an ERA of nearly five and a half at Citizens Bank Park this season, which is the task facing Marlins' lefty Luzardo. He was 2-0 on the season against the Phillies but was far from dominant in his two wins. Luzardo has also been a much better pitcher at home than on the road this season. Phillies' starter Wheeler was stellar down the stretch with a 3-0 record in his last five starts. Wheeler is also the more experienced big-game pitcher in this game after being one of the key pitchers in the Phillies' march to the World Series last year. Wheeler had an ERA of 2.78 in the 2022 postseason. The Phillies' key to victory will be with the long ball and they are especially dangerous at home in that department. |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -171 | 6-3 | Loss | -171 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt as they had to use Kelly and Gallen on the weekend. This is not ideal considering Pfaadt did not have success. The rookie posted a 4.32 ERA in September and issued a poor 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 96 innings on the season. The Brewers have been outstanding at home, winning eight consecutive home series. Corbin Burnes is rested and has allowed just four runs in his last 22 innings pitched. He has registered a solid 3.77 career ERA against the Diamondbacks. Woodruff has dominated in his brief work in the postseason, allowing just two runs in 15 career innings. I don’t expect this game to go down to the late innings but if it does, the Brewers have the stronger pen. |
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10-01-23 | Guardians v. Tigers -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The stars seem to be perfectly aligned for the Tigers today. They need the win to jump three spots in the standings from last season and finish in second place. They also send out Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound this season and the lefty has dominated the Guardians this season. He is perfect in three starts against them, all quality starts, and his ERA is under one in those three turns. Finally, and most importantly, the Tigers and their fans send off future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera in the final game of his illustrious career. Expect the game to be emotional and all about the veteran stars. The Guardians will step back and let the well-respected Cabrera have his moment and will fall to the Tigers to close out a disappointing season. |
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10-01-23 | Rangers +110 v. Mariners | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Late on Saturday night, the Rangers watched the Astros win 1-0 over the Diamondbacks to remain alive for the AL West crown. The Rangers now have a huge game to play today to try and avoid having to play in the wildcard round this week. Dunning will be facing a Mariners' lineup that certainly will not have the same fire as they would have if the playoffs were on the line and one that may very well likely rest several players. The Rangers will be playing all their starters on Sunday to clinch the division. Seattle starter Kirby has been a bit up and down during the stretch and may also be given a much shorter hook here with the season over for the Mariners. I expect the Rangers to be the more motivated team, even if the division title isn't up for grabs. |
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10-01-23 | Astros -162 v. Diamondbacks | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Javier, the fourth-year pro held four of his five September opponents to three or fewer earned runs and fanned 11 batters two starts ago vs. Baltimore. He's going to be an important arm in the Houston rotation this postseason. He should be able to tame a D-Backs lineup that slashed just .238 BA/.315 OBP/.374 SLG/.688 OPS in September. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Stroud has completed 73 of 103 passes (70.9 percent) for 877 yards and all four of his touchdowns while inside the pocket. Outside the pocket, where he was often dangerous as a playmaker in college, Stroud has only completed five of 18 throws (27.8 percent) for 29 yards on 1.6 yards per attempt. Amazingly, he has accomplished all of this while playing behind an unsettled and injury-riddled offensive line that is allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the league. Through it all, he leads the league with a 77.8 percent completion percentage (14 of 18) against man coverage while tossing 222 yards and two touchdowns. The league average completion percentage against man coverage is 58.5 percent. So now that we’ve ascertained that we have the better QB in this game, we’ll lean on Houston's 6-1 ATS mark as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more when coming off its initial win of the season. With the Steelers staring dead ahead to a bigger clash up next with Baltimore, we look to the fact that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 12-21-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite coming off a win, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season. |
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10-01-23 | Rams +105 v. Colts | Top | 29-23 | Win | 105 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units QB Gardner Minshew’s will last week moved his record to 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last dozen starts. Complicating matters, the Colts are 5-10 SUATS in non-division games following consecutive underdog wins. Given the fact that Indy is one of 6 NFL teams to have been outgained in each of their games this season, what are the chances for the Colts this week? It is not all that good. The Rams have a top coach and a quality quarterback, which makes them dangerous on any given Sunday. Especially knowing that the Colts are just 2-12-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 0-8-1 ATS at home. Finally, HC McVay is 5-0 ATS away in his career, and 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Titans surrender just 2.6 defensive yards per rush, which jumps off the page next to Cincinnati’s 5.1 DYPR. That’s a gaping difference. So, while a boatload of trends lines up in the Bengals’ favor, we’ll defer to stats and shade the Titans and Mike Vrabel and his glossy 16-9 ATS dog log against foes coming off a SUATS win. Finally, the Titans are 9-3 ATS at home against foes coming off a Monday night contest, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .400 opponents. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns -135 | 28-3 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb for the season, and Deshaun Watson has been spotty at best, although good last week. But people need to realize how freaking good this defense is. The offense is but a side role player in this production as the Browns have the best defense in the league and it will carry them all season. They held Joe Burrow to under 100 yards passing, they held Derrick Henry to 20 yards rushing, and in their only loss, 14 of the 26 points were from defensive touchdowns -- a pick 6 and a fumble scoop and score. The Ravens' passing game is limited and without much help around Jackson, I don't see the Ravens being able to mount much of an attack. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -12 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Gamecocks appear to have lost their edge following a close-but-no-cigar loss to Georgia, as they are now 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow FBS foes this season. Keep an eye on the line as South Carolina is also a miserable 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 12 or less points. Tennessee has cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings and despite a wobbly 3-9 ATS record in its last 12 SEC games when seeking revenge, we’ll still lay the points in this major conference payback. |
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09-30-23 | Yankees v. Royals +118 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City's offense putting up more than five runs per game this month already gives them an advantage at the plate on Saturday. Then factor in their better play at home all season (.259/.322/.419 slash line), and they should tee off. Clarke Schmidt already gave up three runs against them in Yankee Stadium. He brings a 5.27 road ERA and 5.33 ERA in his last five starts to Kansas City with him. Expect the Royals to jump ahead early. Pitching has been a concern for Kansas City, but this year's Yankees aren't threatening at the plate at all. New York is scoring fewer than four runs per game in September and has been among the league's lowest-scoring teams all season. Home runs are their great equalizer, but Kauffman Stadium's dimensions should neutralize that. This game will be a Royals win. |
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09-30-23 | Marlins -154 v. Pirates | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are trying to hang on to the final Wildcard spot. They won three of their previous four games against the Pirates this season. They have scored 17 runs in their last four games. They hit the ball well against right-handers and Priester has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 20 runs in his last four home starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Marlins in this game. The Pirates offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and Miami’s pitching has been very good in recent games, with the team holding four of their last five opponents under four runs. They gave up 10 runs in four games against the Pirates this season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Miami to cover the money line. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas +16.5 v. Texas | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is 0-7 ATS as conference favorites of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 2-9 ATS at home before facing fellow conference defector Oklahoma. Kansas has covered 5 of the last six meetings in this series, is 5-2 ATS as conference dogs of more than 10 points, and 7-3 against the number overall with conference revenge. Finally, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is 10-3-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois +1 v. Purdue | Top | 19-44 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 18 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Vegas has made the Boilermakers the betting favorite, and that’s where things get ugly for Purdue. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games when laying points against avenging teams, 0-4 ATS at Ross-Ade last year and 0-3 SU at home this season. Purdue always seems tougher when they have the chip on their shoulder and here to knock it off is the fact that Purdue is 0-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 18 or less points. |
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09-30-23 | Georgia v. Auburn +14.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Defending National Champions are 8-14-1 ATS as undefeated double digit road chalk versus .750 or greater opponents. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in Game 5 vs. conference foes and has a 3-1 spread mark as conference home dogs of 6 points or more. Freeze is 28-12 ATS as a dog, including 13-5 ATS versus undefeated foes. |
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09-30-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays -114 | 7-5 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be an interesting matchup today between the Jays and Rays. With a likely playoff matchup looming, neither team will likely look to play their starters the full game. Both starting pitchers are also likely to be pitching out of the bullpen in the wildcard round with neither in the top-three of their team's rotations. I expect both pitchers to be gone by the end of the fourth inning at the latest as each team protects their pitching staff. The rest of the game should be played by recent call-ups that will not be a part of the playoff roster. I like the home team Jays to be slightly more motivated after going through a bit of a tough stretch in recent games. |
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09-30-23 | Florida +105 v. Kentucky | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -100 | 63 h 55 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has worked wonders during his 10-plus years at Lexington but he’s a money-burning 8-14 ATS at home in conference games versus foes off an ATS loss. And when it comes to taking on a conference team playing with revenge, the Cats had cashed just three tickets in their last ten tries. Finally, consider that Florida's HC is 11-2 ATS as a dog in conference games, including 7-0 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points |
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09-30-23 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +6.5 | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fisher is just 17-31 ATS versus avenging .500-or-greater conference opponents, including 2-12 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hogs cashed our 4-star Best Bet winner last week and they’re coming right back for more this week. They are in the right role, going 14-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Sam Pittman, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 9 points. |
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09-29-23 | Yankees -144 v. Royals | 5-12 | Loss | -144 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are heading to an offseason full of questions as they are missing the postseason. That’s an uncommon thing for the Yankees in recent history but their moves to bolster things failed to deliver. Rodon is a prime example of what fell apart for the franchise as he missed the first three months of the season and never got up to speed after that. Of course, facing a Royals team that is minus arguably their top two starting pitchers in Brady Singer and Brad Keller makes things more difficult for the hosts. The Royals have struggled offensively and Rodon should be able to finish the season on a positive note with a strong outing here. |
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09-29-23 | Padres -139 v. White Sox | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres, who average 4.66 runs per game, should drive in runs at will with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and the rest of the lineup making contact and powering the ball to easily drive in runs. The Padres should also limit a White Sox lineup that averages only 4.01 runs per game with Nick Martinez tossing multiple scoreless innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with the lead. The Padres should win the game with a strong performance on the road. |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cardinals are gaining a lot of respect from Vegas, but the fact is they’ve lost the money in both of their away games so far. We don’t like that they have Notre Dame up next, nor their 1-6 ATS record when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong has struggled to find his footing after transferring in from Virginia, but we expect a breakout game from him tonight. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren’s 7-3 ATS as a home dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when coming off a win, assures us we’ll root for the home team to pull off a mild upset. |
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09-28-23 | Rangers +112 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have dominated right-handed pitchers in the last ten days, notching a .895 OPS and 139 wRC+ across 261 plate appearances. Last Saturday, they scored two runs off Logan Gilbert in that 2-0 home win against Seattle. On the other side, the Mariners have registered a .672 OPS and 93 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers over the last ten days (133 plate appearances). They’ve owned the Mariners as of late. Jordan Montgomery has been outstanding over his previous three starts including seven scoreless innings against Seattle, and the Rangers ‘pen has been surprisingly good in the last ten days (3.67 ERA and 2.71 FIP). |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Packers overcame a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Saints 18-17 in a game which increased their home opening record to 16-1 in the process. With it, they bring a lofty 12-0-1 outright mark in second-home games entering this contest while going 9-3-1 ATS in those games. Tonight’s game also marks the first time in the last 10 meetings between these two squads in which Green Bay will be on the receiving end of the points. The Lions are 4-28 SU in Green Bay dating back to 1992 – being the favorite only twice. Finally, the Packers’ are 4-0 ATS as a home dog. |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State +6.5 v. Western Kentucky | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Blue Raider boss Rick Stockstill stands 9-5 ATS in his career against .500 or fewer foes that are coming off two losses, including 7-2 ATS in conference play. He’s also in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, so regardless of whatever Western coach Tyson Helton throws at them, Stockstill has probably seen it before. After the requisite blowout defeat against Alabama to start the season, MTSU acquitted itself nicely in a narrow 23-19 loss at Missouri and should get its first outright road win of 2023 here. |
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09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -175 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to go with a Cardinals team playing with a depleted lineup. Several key players are out including Arenado, Contreras, and Gorman. They have dropped five of their last seven games. The Brewers are looking strong heading into the postseason, winning four of their last five series. Cards’ starter Dakota Hudson is struggling, producing a poor 5.93 ERA in his five outings in September. Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes continues to shut down the opposition, allowing just four runs in his last three outings spanning 18 innings. Burnes has a stifling 2.97 ERA in 75 innings in his career against the rivals. |
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09-28-23 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota's ace, Sonny Gray, will try to put a bow on a sensational 2023 season against MLB's worst offense. Gray will take his 2.66 home ERA against his former team that's averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Twins shouldn't feel threatened by Oakland's offense at all today. The Twins have been mashing the ball, which is why they're the only team averaging over six runs per game this month. Luis Medina is the A's starter, and he has a 6.60 ERA on the road. The Oakland bullpen is MLB's worst. Minnesota should clobber plenty of baseballs in this one. It shouldn't be close. |
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09-27-23 | Rangers -154 v. Angels | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Texas Rangers are close to a playoff spot and every game is huge the rest of the way. The Rangers are in a groove. The Angels have been abysmal and have a poor lineup due to the injuries to Trout and Ohtani. They have lost eight of their last ten games. Rangers’ starter Dane Dunning has only conceded four runs in his last 10 innings pitched. He has contained the Angels, limiting them to only three earned runs in 10 innings this season. Angels' pitcher Griffin Canning struggles against the Rangers, allowing 20 runs in 24 career innings against the rivals. |
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09-27-23 | Nationals v. Orioles -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Too much at stake here for Baltimore not to lean their way in this matchup. They have a chance to rest some key players over the weekend and to limit the rest of their starters to a pitch count to keep them fresh but not tax them as they miss nearly a week while getting a well-deserved bye in the first round of the playoffs. Baltimore's Rodriguez has looked like a potential future ace with his lively arm and command coming together down the stretch. He has an ERA under two over his last five starts while slightly upping his K/9 rate. The Nats Corbin has bounced back from an 18-loss season a year ago with a solid season but he still gives up way too many hits per start and that plays right into the Orioles small-ball style of play. The Orioles will move runners along, work the count, and wear down Corbin to get to the Nats' weak bullpen. I don't expect the Orioles to let up here with a chance to possibly clinch the division. |
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09-27-23 | Reds +117 v. Guardians | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have likely run out of steam in terms of earning a wildcard spot but they are certainly in line to earn a winning season in 2023. This will be lefty Abbott's final start of the 2023 season and he will look to go out on a high note after coming out of the gates on fire before cooling off. The Guardians will counter with Bieber who returned from the IL and pitched five innings in his return last week. Bieber has had a difficult season as he transitions from a power pitcher to more of a finesse pitcher who needs to survive with more balls being put in play. Abbott is also 5-1 on the road this season for Cincinnati. The Reds come into this game as the more motivated team and should be able to pull out a win over the Guardians with what is an excellent money line. |
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09-26-23 | Diamondbacks -140 v. White Sox | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have been awful at the plate of late, posting a .671 OPS and 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in the last ten days. On the other side, the Diamondbacks have registered a .744 OPS and 102 wRC+ versus the righties in that span. The Diamondbacks bullpen has done a tremendous job over the last ten days, posting a microscopic 0.65 ERA to go with a 3.80 FIP. The White Sox’s bullpen has recorded a hideous 9.61 ERA and 8.34 FIP during that span. |
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09-26-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -154 | 2-0 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As well as King has pitched since taking on a starter's role, he is still limited in the number of innings he can throw. The Blue Jays' Gausman, however, will have such issues in what might be his last start of the season if all things go right for the Jays. I expect Gausman to once again get deep into the game against a Yankees team that he is averaging just under seven innings per start in his previous three appearances. Gausman is 2-0 against the Yankees and has done an excellent job at keeping the ball out of play with 37 strikeouts in nearly 21 innings pitched. The Yankees' lineup has scored two runs or less in four of their last six games. I don't expect too many contested at-bats from a team already looking ahead to a long offseason. The Jays lineup will do their best to work the pitch count of King to get to the Yankees bullpen. The Jays have much more to play for on Tuesday night and should win this one relatively easily. |
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09-25-23 | Padres -114 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are holding on to fading playoff hopes as they try to make a late push to get back into the playoff picture. With that said, the Padres had won eight straight before losing Saturday night while the Giants have been floundering for the last six or seven weeks. Snell is the presumptive NL Cy Young winner despite his major league-leading walk total as he does a solid job keeping his team in games. Webb has been victimized by a lack of run support in his starts this season and the Giants have struggled to put runs on the board at home. It’s tough to have faith in the home team given their struggles of late. Take the Padres on the road in this contest as they find a way to prevail and keep their faint hopes alive for another day. |
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09-25-23 | Rangers -174 v. Angels | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels sport a 32-43 run line record at home and a 19-27 run line division record this season. Texas hits .273 BA/.349 OBP/.451 SLG/.801 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Sandoval was roughed up by the Rangers last month and is 1-3 in seven career appearances against them. They're in the thick of a competitive division title hunt and will roll to a road victory over the hapless Angels. Gray contained the LA offense in a seven-inning gem last month and should shine again today. The veteran righty has held four of his last five opponents to three runs and has a lower road ERA than at home this year. The Angels are without several key cogs and will be uncompetitive in this series. |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals -135 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Cincinnati is 15-3 SU and 16-2 ATS in its last 18 non-division games, including 6-0 SUATS at home. In addition, they stand 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses. Los Angeles checks in with a 0-6-2 ATS log against AFC North foes coming off back-to-back losses. Finally, Joe Burrow is 5-0-1 ATS with the Bengals when Cincinnati is coming off a pair of losses. |
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09-24-23 | Steelers v. Raiders -155 | 23-18 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS their last six meetings. Jimmy Garoppolo, who stands heads and shoulders above Kenny Pickett. Jimmy G brings a 39-25-1 ATS overall career mark into this game, including 4-1 ATS against the AFC North. With the Black-and-Gold just 1-3 ATS in its last four games after Cleveland, we are going with the Raiders. |
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09-24-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 102 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wacha has held nearly all of his opponents to three or fewer runs and has been especially impressive at Petco. He's facing a Cardinals club hitting .230 BA/.314 OBP/.372 SLG/.686 OPS in September and is missing a few of its best sluggers. I'm predicting a quality start from Wacha today. The Padres have been playing more freely recently, and I don't expect that to change in the series finale. They are facing a rookie hurler with very minimal game experience and have hit left-handers pretty well (.268/.342/.462/.805) in 2023. |
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09-24-23 | Mariners +115 v. Rangers | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have won three of their last four road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 18 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because Eovaldi has been shaky on the mound in recent home starts, giving up seven runs in his last three home starts. He gave up seven runs in his last two home starts against the Mariners, and with Texas having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. The Rangers have won three of their last four games. They are also playing well offensively and scored 29 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because Woo has been brilliant on the mound in recent starts and didn’t give up a run in three of his last four starts. He gave up six runs in his last three road starts, and with Seattle having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Texas’ offense in check. |
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09-24-23 | Brewers v. Marlins +115 | 1-6 | Win | 115 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are still very much in must-win mode while the Brewers NL Central Division title is inevitable. Needing just one win or one Cubs loss, the Brewers' urgency is not nearly as desperate as the Marlins. The Marlins will turn to Cabrera on Sunday at home. Home is the operative word here as Cabrera comes into this matchup with a perfect 6-0 record at home this season and an ERA of just 2.49. He faces a Brewers team that is just 16th in baseball in strikeouts per game while sporting a K/9 rate of over ten himself. I expect a high number of swings and misses from the Brewers in this game. Peralta also has a very impressive K/9 rate but takes on a Marlins team that is fifth in fewest strikeouts per game offensively. |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating; 4 Units After blowing last week’s 21-14 lead after two quarters, Denver has now lost an NFL record nine straight games where it has had the lead at halftime. Even with first-year NFL coaches just 1-9 this season, the value is all with Denver in this matchup. You can count on one thing in this game: Sean Payton is pissed, and somebody will pay the price. He is also 23-7-2 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a win. Finally, NFL Game Three underdogs coming off a pair of SU favorite losses are 16-2-1 ATS since 2003, including 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Houston, is a team that’s given Jacksonville fits over the years with the Texans going 15-3 outright in its last 18 games against Jacksonville, including 5-1 SUATS as a dog in this series since 2018. Additionally, while Houston is 0-2 SUATS this season, they are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats). Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has yet to cash an NFL ticket as a home favorite, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. To cap it off, Jacksonville is 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS as a favorite if the Jags were a dog in their last game. |
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09-24-23 | Colts v. Ravens -7.5 | 22-19 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore looks to improve to 3-0 on the season, something they haven’t done since 2016. They are 8-1 ATS after division road games and 5-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a division contest. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last games against the AFC North and 2-7 ATS in games when both teams were taking points last week. |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -138 v. Jets | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots are 0-2 for the first time since 2001. They went on to go 14-3 thereafter, riding a season-ending 9-0 win skein to capture the Super Bowl. But that was all with Tom Brady, not Mac Jones. One of the Pats’ weaknesses has been the lack of a ground game, and that doesn’t work in the NFL. The 6 NFL teams failing to average more than 82 Rushing Yards Per Game this season are struggling, going 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS through the first two games of the season. However, New England had a 5-0 ATS series record against the Jets, and a 6-1 ATS mark in games in which both teams are coming off SUATS losses. Bill Belichick is 18-3 SU and 14-7 of late in games when coming off successive losses. |
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09-23-23 | USC v. Arizona State +34.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This doesn’t scream Trojans blowout mainly because Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 15 or more, 0-3 ATS off rest the last two years, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in the front end of back-to-back road games. With Colorado looming, this may be a letdown game for Lincoln Riley’s squadron, Caleb Williams or not. Plus, ASU is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series, 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 11 or more and 3-1 ATS in the 4th straight home game. Additionally, playing on any college football conference home dog of more than 18 points coming off consecutive home losses is 17-2 ATS. |
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09-23-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -184 | 5-2 | Loss | -184 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Diego has won eight straight for the first time since 2021. Nine consecutive wins would match the sixth-longest winning streak in franchise history. The Padres will start right-hander Nick Martinez (5-4, 3.73 ERA) against Cardinals' right-hander Jake Woodford (2-2, 5.31). Overall, Woodford has a 10-6 record with a 4.01 ERA in 78 career appearances (16 starts) with the Cardinals. With St. Louis this season, Woodford has appeared in 13 games (six starts), giving up 26 runs (25 earned) on 51 hits and 19 walks with 28 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. Woodford will be facing the Padres for the first time in 2023. In three career relief appearances against the Padres, Woodford is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA, giving up three runs on six hits and two walks with a strikeout in 3 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Martinez will be making his second straight start for the Padres, but it will be just his eighth start in what will be 62 games in 2023. Over two seasons with the Padres, the 33-year-old Martinez has made 17 starts in 108 appearances. He allowed one hit with five strikeouts over three innings against Oakland last Sunday in his first start since Aug. 8 and only his third since April 19, when Musgrove opened the season on the injured list. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge. The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role. |
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09-23-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -121 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers jumped over the Mariners and Astros in the standings last night after their 8-5 win over the Mariners, and I think they gain some more ground tonight. Texas has been extremely productive against right-handed pitching this season (.792 OPS) and will go up against right-hander Logan Gilbert. Through 30 starts, Gilbert owns a respectable 3.77 ERA, but has slightly regressed in September, pitching to a 4.50 ERA across 4 starts. The Rangers’ offense can get hot quick, and they’ve plated 29 runs in their past 3 games. Look for them to stay aggressive. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery counters for the Rangers and is pitching to a 3.38 ERA across 30 starts. Most importantly, Montgomery has been extremely efficient over his past 2 outings, allowing just 1 earned run across 14.0 innings. I give the edge to Montgomery and a potent Rangers’ lineup to grab the win and widen their lead in the standings. |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State +3 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 76 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss. |
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09-23-23 | Arkansas +18 v. LSU | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points |
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09-23-23 | Brewers -116 v. Marlins | 4-5 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Woodruff has been outstanding this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. The only problem has been that a shoulder injury kept him for four months, limiting him to just 10 starts so far. Over his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA. In three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. The Brewers (88-66), who routed the Marlins 16-1 in the series opener on Friday, are closing in on their third NL Central title in the past six years. Their magic number for the division is one, and they clinched a playoff berth on Friday. he Marlins hope to change their fortunes today behind left-hander Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.68 ERA). Luzardo, a native of Peru who will turn 26 next week, has set career highs in wins, starts (30) and innings (166 1/3). Prior to this season, his career highs in those categories were six victories, 18 starts and 100 1/3 innings. The Marlins are 18-12 this season when Luzardo starts, although he took a pounding on Sept. 11 when facing Woodruff and the Brewers. In that game, Luzardo allowed 10 hits, four walks and six runs in five innings. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 10 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally, if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG) |
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09-23-23 | Maryland -7.5 v. Michigan State | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break. Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. |
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09-22-23 | Tigers -131 v. A's | 2-8 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Having won six of its last eight games, Detroit now sends impressive prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long (1-0, 2.70 ERA) to the mound to face an A's team that has lost eight straight. The right-hander has pitched the Tigers to a pair of wins in his first two major league starts, striking out a total of 16 in 10 innings. He allowed just one run and two hits over five innings, striking out 11, in his most recent start over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. The 25-year-old has never faced the A's. Waldichuk (3-8, 5.40) pitched Oakland to a 12-3 win at Detroit as a bulk-innings reliever in July, allowing two runs in 4 1/3 innings. It was his only career head-to-head with the Tigers. The left-hander has won just once in 13 appearances since, nine of which have been starts. |
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09-22-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -153 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The St. Louis Cardinals have only won four of their last ten games. The Padres have won four of their last five home bouts. They are enjoying one of their best stretches of the season, winning eight of their last ten games including a series win against the Dodgers. Cardinals’ starter Dakota Hudson has not been reliable. The veteran has squandered 15 runs in his last 14.1 innings and has issued an abysmal 6.75 ERA this month. This is good news for the Padres who are dazzling at the plate, averaging a remarkable 5.9 runs in their last ten games. Padres starter Matt Waldron allowed just two runs last time out and has allowed just four runs in his last 10 home innings. |
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09-22-23 | Orioles -107 v. Guardians | 8-9 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the O's on the road, where they're 50-27 straight-up. Baltimore is finishing strong, slashing .275 BA/.337 OBP/.455 SLG/.792 OPS in September after a strong showing in August (5.9 runs per game). The O's had success against Bieber earlier this season, too. They'll make him work for all his 80 pitches, pushing the Cleveland starter in his first appearance since the All-Star break. The Guardians average 3.7 runs per game at home and will face a starter who has held four of his last five opponents to one or no runs. He held his own in his most recent start, too, limiting the high-scoring Rays to one run. I'm confident he will turn in a quality start for the visitors in another important game for Baltimore's title chase. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Purdue | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wisconsin has dominated this series going 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings, along with a 7-2 ATS mark before a Week of Rest, and an 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on Weekdays. Purdue comes in with a 2-17 ATS mark as a home dog in games they fail to win. They are also 1-8 ATS of late in the second of 3 straight home games. |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL this year that went from worst to first in their division last season. That’s not good news if you’re looking to back them as a favorite, as these teams are just 82-100-5 ATS overall since 2004, including 43-68-3 ATS as home favorites. San Fran is also 1-6 ATS in this series when coming off back-to-back wins. The Giants were one of four NFL teams to come back and win after trailing by double-digits last week. New York is 6-0 ATS as a dog after being a favorite in its last game, and 3-0 ATS on Thursdays the past three seasons, and 4-0 ATS before a Monday night game. |
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09-21-23 | Pirates v. Cubs -159 | 8-6 | Loss | -159 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to struggle when playing the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have completely dominated the rivals, winning 10 of the 11 meetings. The Pirates have dropped four of their last five road bouts. Pirates’ starter Johan Oviedo has not been sharp, posting a poor 5.11 ERA in his three outings this month. Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks has silenced the Pirates, holding them to three earned runs in 12 innings this season, and has recorded a 3.67 career ERA against the rivals. The Cubs have won all four home games against the Pirates this season. They have also secured the win in three of Hendricks' last four outings. |
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09-21-23 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have struggled to find consistency this season and having to travel from Miami to Philadelphia for this one won't help matters. They lack the pitching to compete on a regular basis and while the lineup has dangerous names, they have struggled to produce and gel together. In the other clubhouse, the Phillies get to lean on a starting pitcher who has only improved over the last month and is pitching the best baseball of his season so far. Their lineup is heavy at the top but even when just one or two bench players contribute, it's more than enough for success and wins to be found. Suarez was successful in his earlier start this season against the Mets and if he can channel that in this one, the sky is the limit for the Phillies in the series opener. |
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09-21-23 | Brewers +100 v. Cardinals | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have won four of their last six games and three of their last five road games and have scored 18 runs in their last four games. St. Louis starter Mikolas has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 15 runs in his last three home starts and with St. Louis having the eighth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Cardinals have lost three of their last five games and have struggled offensively and scored only 11 runs in their last four games. Miley has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, especially on the road where he gave up 11 runs in his last six starts. He gave up one run in his last two starts in St. Louis. |
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09-20-23 | Giants +101 v. Diamondbacks | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants always have a great chance to win games when Logan Webb is on the mound. The Giants ace is capable of going seven to eight innings. He limited the Rockies to one run in eight innings last time out. Webb usually silences Arizona, holding the rivals to six runs in 21 innings this season. Merrill Kelly can be shaky. He just gave up seven runs to the Mets and has surrendered 16 runs in his last four outings spanning 22.2 innings. Arizona has only won in four of Kelly’s last ten outings. The Giants have beaten the Diamondbacks in three of their last four meetings. |
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09-20-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kirby has stumbled a bit over his last five starts with an elevated ERA and 0-2 in that span. He has a perfect opportunity here against the light-hitting A's lineup to get back on track. Kirby has faced the A's once this season and was sharp going seven innings and allowing just three runs in a Mariners' win. The A's will have to cobble together a group of pitchers to with no available starter to give them a long stint. The Mariners lineup should have its way with the A's staff today as they try to stay with the Rangers and Blue Jays in the wildcard race. Looking for yet another easy win by Seattle. |