Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-21 | Florida State -1 v. Florida | 55-71 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seminoles have dominated the Gators over the past years. They have covered the spread in the last eight matchups, including seven straight-up wins in a row. FSU put up 105 points against Penn, while Florida struggled in its first game. Florida State has more firepower and should continue the series dominance. |
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11-13-21 | Wild -110 v. Seattle Kraken | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kraken have lost 3 straight games and they are 3-7-0 in their last 10 games. The Wild are coming off a loss but they are 5-3-0 on the road this season and they have been scoring a lot. Cam Talbot has been really good in net for them and they take on the struggling Kraken after a loss. I like the Wild on the road at basically a pick em. |
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11-13-21 | Grizzlies -4 v. Pelicans | 101-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans’ season has quickly gone into a downward spiral. Zion Williamson (foot) isn’t close to playing in his first game and Brandon Ingram (hip) has missed seven straight. The result has been a 1-12 record with a -11.1 point differential that is the second worst in the NBA. If Ingram is out again, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. |
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11-13-21 | Canadiens v. Red Wings -113 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red wings were shut out by the Caps in Zach Fucale’s debut in their last game so I think they will come out hungry. The Canadiens are 1-5-0 on the road this season and Alex Nedeljkovic should be back in the net for the Red Wings. I like the Red Wings at home at this price. |
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11-13-21 | Kings +156 v. Jets | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit The Kings are one of the hottest teams in hockey right now, so I am not sure why they are this heavy underdogs. They have won 7 straight games while the Jets have lost their last two games at home. The Kings and Ducks are both on fire right now but are expected to be bad this season giving good value, so I am going to ride these teams while they are hot. Both goalies are playing very well for the Kings and there’s no value on puck lines right now, so I like the road team while they’re hot. |
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11-13-21 | Rangers v. Blue Jackets +125 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit The Blue Jackets erased a two-goal deficit last night but they were eventually beat by the Caps. However, tonight Elvis Merzlikins (5-1 1.98 GAA) will be starting, and the Blue Jackets are at home despite it being a back to back. The Rangers actually have the worst goal differential in the Metropolitan Division despite their 17 points, so I think they are due for a regression. I like the value on the Blue Jackets at home behind Merzlikins. |
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11-13-21 | New Mexico v. Colorado -14.5 | 76-87 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado is a top-60 program, and New Mexico comes in below 250th in most rankings. We're getting a soft line because the Buffaloes almost lost to Montana State, needing overtime to secure a four-point win when they were 12-point favorites. I make this matchup -19 in favor of the Buffaloes. Take the favorites to cover. |
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11-13-21 | Heat +7 v. Jazz | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rough Friday in the NBA for me. I blame La Nina or Nino or whatever, the weather here is wacky. Which reminds me, time to stream the final season of Narcos. No show is better. Anyways, there is no way the Heat should be 7-point underdogs against anyone whether Jimmy Butler plays or not (he probably won't). |
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11-13-21 | Maryland +13 v. Michigan State | 21-40 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units It’s true the Terps have pitched a no-no in conference games this season (0-6 ATS), but head coach Mike Locksley is 2-0 ATS in his career in games against foes coming off a SU favorite loss – and a hard loss it was, as the Spartans had their undefeated “bubble burst” in the loss at Purdue. Despite Michigan State’s surprising success in 2021, the Spartans are just 1-6 ATS as Big Ten chalk of more than seven points, and 2-7 ATS at home versus conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Terps have cashed in three of their last four games against MSU, and the visitor in this series is on a 3-0 ATS run. Consider that playing againts any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its inital loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 11-2 ATS since 1980.. |
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11-13-21 | Michigan -1 v. Penn State | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin brings is a 13-23 SU and 16-20 ATS career mark into games against opponents with a better win percentage, including 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS versus .875 or greater foes. This will mark the fourth time in the last five years these two teams will meet as ranked teams, so neither side should find the stage too large. However, to Michigan’s credit, the Maize-and-Blue did not buckle beneath the weight of the “bubble burst” following the contested loss against Sparty, methodically grinding out a 29-7 win over Indiana last Saturday, holding the Hoosiers to just 195 total yards. The feeling here is the Wolverines are the better team, and they’ll be out to avenge a season-ending home loss to the Lions last year, one that denied them a .500 campaign. Consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 40-8 |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +5.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 101 | 65 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day OU is still unbeaten but not ATS under Riley, instead they’re a middling 9-14 in that category. There is one Jimmy the Greek style checkmark in the Sooners column, a powerful 14-2 ATS mark as road chalk of 8 or fewer. BU is coming off a surprise loss to TCU last week but in their series with OU, Da Bears are 3-0 ATS in the last three and 7-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a loss. In conference revenge games, Baylor is a sturdy 10-2 ATS, plus, BU is 20-5 SUATS in Waco since 2011 against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS as the dog. It’s only the eighth time in this long series both teams have been ranked, all of them since 2011, and OU is 4-3. Consider that since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Nine out facing .700 or greater opponents are just 49-50 SU and 40-57-3 (41.2%). Say hello to Oklahoma. Worse, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole when they’re installed as road favorites of 4 or more points, falling to 14-31 ATS. And when installed as favorites of 4 or more points when coming off a win of 20 or more points, they drop to 16-13 SU and SU and 7-22 ATS in these games, including 6-7 SU and 1-12 ATS against foes that were favored by more than 7 points in their last game |
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11-12-21 | Villanova +4 v. UCLA | 77-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wouldn't be a legitimate capper if I didn't preview this potential Final Four preview with an awesome late-night tipoff from UCLA. Frankly, this spread shocks me. The Bruins are good but I think a tad overrated -- remember, they barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament last year and should have lost in the First Four. Also, the Bruins lost starting big man Cody Riley to a knee injury in the opener. He averaged 10.0 points and 5.4 rebounds last season. Villanova is a veteran team that might not get this many points the rest of the regular season. UCLA might win at home but no way I'm not taking this many points. |
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11-12-21 | Idaho State v. Pepperdine -4.5 | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's obviously impossible to know in-depth about every team in the country. Don't know a heck of a lot about Idaho State of the Big Sky -- the Bengals were picked to finish sixth in the conference and opened with a win over Montana State. Pepperdine lost its two best players off last year's team that won the College Basketball Invitational but has eight guys back and a couple of good freshmen in Houston Mallette and Mike Mitchell Jr. Lorenzo Romar has recruited well wherever he has been. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Waves winning by 12. Sagarin by about 9. ESPN power rankings by 10.5. |
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11-12-21 | Indiana State v. Purdue -25.5 | 67-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boilermakers are absolutely loaded and they proved it in their first game as they put up 96 points on 50 percent shooting. Even though the Sycamores won their first game, they didn’t look good. They turned the ball over at a very high rate and their defense was subpar. The Boilermakers should be able to put up 90-plus points again and cover. |
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11-12-21 | Kings v. Thunder +4.5 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have been a much more competitive team at home than on the road. Despite three of their four home games being tough matchups against the Sixers, Warriors and Lakers, they are 3-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Kings have lost three straight and might be without Tyrese Haliburton (back), who is listed as questionable, for the third straight game. I like the Thunder to keep this close. |
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11-12-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas A&M UNDER 129 | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams were terrible offensively in their openers. They both shot under 40 percent from the field. Defensively, the Aggies were dominant, holding UNF to just 46 points. The Wildcats showed flashes of defensive potential as well as they held the Utes to under 40 percent from the field. Both of these teams like to play at a slower pace. Go Under. |
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11-12-21 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 211.5 | 113-122 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are missing big scorers in Khris Middleton and Jaylen Brown. The Bucks have been one of the best Under teams in the NBA with 75 percent of their games landing Under. Sixty percent of Boston's have and three of four at home. |
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11-12-21 | Cornell v. Lafayette -2.5 | 90-85 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cornell lost all five starters from its 2019-20 team -- the Ivy League didn't play last season -- while Lafayette has four starters back off last season's team that was a Patriot League contender. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Leopards winning by 11. Not sure I agree with that but ESPN's power rankings have Lafayette 6.6 points better. The Big Red are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games. |
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11-12-21 | Knicks v. Hornets +1.5 | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks are known for defense under Tom Thibodeau but lately they've been getting lit up. Opponents are shooting 41 percent from deep over New York's last seven games. And the Knicks' starters are the biggest problem: they've been outscored by 15.6 points per 100 possessions. The young and talented Hornets got a huge win in Memphis last time out and I think they carry it over here. |
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11-12-21 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets +118 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Caps played in Detroit last night and now they travel to Columbus to face the stingy Blue Jackets defense. The Blue Jackets last played on Saturday so this is this ultimate rust vs. rest argument. The Blue Jackets are 5-1-0 at home this season and both goalies have been very good for them. Vitek Vanecek was out for last night’s game for a maintenance day so it will be either Vanecek or Ilya Samsonov in net for the Caps. Regardless of who is in net, I still think the Blue Jackets have the goalie advantage. The Caps have lost 5 of the last 7 games in this matchup, take the home dog. |
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11-12-21 | Northern Illinois +25.5 v. Indiana | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he Northern Illinois Huskies were impressive in their season opener, winning by seven as big underdogs to Washington. They registered 14 blocks and held Washington below 30 percent shooting. Indiana should win but this is too many points. |
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11-12-21 | Hartford v. Campbell -5.5 | 67-68 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is part of the Duke Veterans Day Weekend Showcase in Durham. The Camels are North Division favorites in the Big South; they returned 99 percent of their scoring and minutes played from last season. Hartford won the America East last season but is not as good defensively; this season they're picked to finish fourth. In their opener, the Hawks got 16 more free throws and still lost by 18 to Wagner. Look for Campbell to execute its Princeton offense effectively and cover. |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After an overtime loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, the Heat have a quick turnaround to play again Thursday. To complicate matters, Jimmy Butler suffered a sprained ankle that will likely keep him out. Not only is he averaging 23.6 points per game, he’s one of the keys to their defense, averaging 2.1 steals with his ability to guard multiple positions. There’s just too much going against the Heat in this matchup. |
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11-11-21 | Ducks +155 v. Seattle Kraken | 7-4 | Win | 155 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ducks are one of the hottest teams in hockey right now with 5 straight wins. The Kraken are still just 4-8-1 on the season and they have lost 2 straight games. I have been staying away from heavy road dogs this season, but I am not sure why the Kraken are this big favorites. They have won just 4 out of 13 games this season and both teams are relatively healthy. I would go with the puck line but it is at -200 which is just ridiculous for a team that is an underdog. There just hasn’t been any value on puck lines at all this season so we will go with the hot underdog. |
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11-11-21 | CS-Fullerton v. San Jose State +6 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Jose State wasn't good last season but has a new coach in Tim Miles and five Power 5 transfers. Cal State Fullerton fell 84-77 at Santa Clara on Tuesday. Fullerton probably wins but this spread is a few points too high. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games as favorites. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Once again, Jacoby Brissett filled in for peanut brittle Tua Tagovailoa, who sat the game out with a broken finger. Interestingly, 11 of the 16 AFC teams own winning records after nine weeks of the season while just one team in this matchup checks that box. Lamar Jackson became the first NFL quarterback this season to win three games after trailing by double-digits, digging the Ravens out of a 17-3, second-quarter hole with both his arm (266 yards, three touchdowns) and his legs (120 yards on 21 carries). The bottom line is Miami is 0-3 ATS in its last three games when coming off a win, and 1-4 SUATS on Thursdays. Next to Baltimore’s 8-0 ATS record in this series, 7-1 ATS mark in its last eight games versus the AFC East, and 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A check of the ATS archives reveals a lot of Carolina blue goose eggs: 0-5 ATS Weekdays, 0-5 ATS after Wake Forest, and 0-5 ATS before a non-conference home game. Remember, teams who knock off a 7-0 or greater opponent are just 40-60-3 ATS when on the road the next game, including 1-9 ATS the past two seasons. And when this year’s Tar Heels don’t win, they don’t cover, as all four of their losses were both SU and ATS. We fully expect another shootout tonight between Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and UNC QB Sam Howell, but with both of Pitt’s previous SU losses taking place at Heinz Field, the Panthers have extra incentive to make amends with a strong performance here. With Pittsburgh boasting a 6-1 ATS log in Weekday games, we're siding with the Panthers. |
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11-11-21 | Raptors v. 76ers -3.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Joel Embiid again for the Sixers, but the Raptors aren't really built to take advantage of that in the paint -- plus, they are without Pascal Siakam and Khem Birch. The Sixers will get back second-leading scorer Tobias Harris from COVID protocols and are likely to get back Seth Curry from a one-game injury absence. That should be enough to cover against a Raptors team playing the second of a B2B and on a three-game skid. |
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11-11-21 | Flames -130 v. Canadiens | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Calgary owns a plus-91 shot differential, while the Canadiens are plus-2 this season. The Flames have scored 41 goals and allowed 26. Montreal has netted 28 tallies and yielded 48. Calgary is coming off a 4-1 loss despite outshooting San Jose 38-28. The Flames are ranked No. 14 in faceoff winning percentage, while Montreal is 29th. The Canadiens also have amassed the sixth-most penalty minutes in the NHL. This line will close at Calgary -150, so get down now. |
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11-11-21 | Panthers -120 v. Penguins | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida is on a two-game skid and was outscored 11-6 in those, but Spencer Knight was in net for those. It will be Sergei Bobrovsky here, and he's a stellar 6-0-0 with a 1.72 goals-against average and .948 save percentage. Pittsburgh could be down four defensemen (and is without Sidney Crosby) due to COVID/injury. |
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11-11-21 | Kings -107 v. Senators | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ottawa is severely short-handed right now because of a bit of a COVID outbreak and third-string netminder Filip Gustavsson will have to start because of it. He has allowed nine combined goals in his past two outings. I don't much like the Kings as a whole and probably wouldn't take them on the road in most other situations, but I certainly favor Jonathan Quick (2.26 GAA) in the goaltender matchup. |
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11-11-21 | Oilers +133 v. Bruins | 5-3 | Win | 133 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mikko Koskinen will be starting for the Oilers and he is 7-1-0 this season with a 2.54 GAA. Linus Ullmark will start for the Bruins over Jeremy Swayman and he has been solid. The Bruins are 5-0-0 at home this season but the Oilers are 9-2-0 on the season. The Oilers were one of the best road teams in the league last season, I like the value on the road team. |
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11-11-21 | Merrimack -3 v. NJIT | 61-54 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Look, I don't know much about NJIT -- their own laughable website doesn't even have a media guide or preview of the team this season. I do know the Highlanders were 7-12 last year and their best player, Zach Cooks, transferred to Hofstra. All the models are saying that NJIT is better than Merrimack, but I don't agree with what I do know. The Warriors reached the NEC title game last year and are one of only five teams in the country to return 99 percent of its point production from a season ago. Merrimack also has a game under its belt, beating something called Emerson (Ralph Waldo? Fittipaldi?) College on Tuesday. KenPom also ranks Merrimack quite a bit higher. |
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11-11-21 | George Washington +18.5 v. Maryland | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colonials won their first game despite a second-half collapse. They showed a lot of potential, especially on defense. They held the Red Flash to 38 percent shooting from the field. The Colonials' biggest issues were that they allowed 13 offensive rebounds and sent the Red Flash to the line 33 times. The Terrapins were a terrible free-throw shooting team last season. In their first game, they shot just 15 of 23 on free throws. George Washington's stingy defense should allow the Colonials to stay within the number. |
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11-11-21 | Vermont +6 v. Northern Iowa | 71-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KenPom ranks Vermont at 106 nationally and Northern Iowa 128. The Catamounts are annual contenders in the America East Conference -- they won their fifth straight regular-season title last year -- and had two players named to the preseason all-conference team in reigning America East Player of the Year Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu. I can't find a model that has UNI winning by more than four -- SportsLine's has it with a four-point margin. ESPN's power rankings have this as essentially a pick'em. Sagarin has UNI by 3.5 points. |
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11-10-21 | Pacific v. Northern Colorado | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It concerns me a bit that this spread dropped from an open of Pacific -3.5 to a pick'em ... I can't find any relevant injury news, etc., that might have led to that move. If this game were at Northern Colorado, I'd probably stay away as the Bears of the Big Sky bring back all five starters. However, it's in Hawaii and I think Pacific of the WCC should win in the school head coaching debut of Leonard Perry. Former coach Damon Stoudamire left this offseason to join the Celtics. Pacific brings back three key players from last year's squad and welcomes two good transfers in Luke Avdalovic and Alphonso Anderson, who was last year's Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year. KenPom ranks Pacific as the No. 125 team in the nation and Northern Colorado at 200, so I'd be stupid not to take a pick'em, right? |
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11-10-21 | Pacers -145 v. Nuggets | 98-101 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I believe this number will only go up today with Denver sans reigning MVP Nikola Jokic due to a one-game suspension -- plus Michael Porter is out injured. Indiana is the type of inconsistent team that could still lose this game ... but it really shouldn't (I'm not giving 3 points). The big Pacers frontcourt of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner should have its way with the Nuggets sans Jokic. |
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11-10-21 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | 88-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are 0-3 ATS at home and will have to play without Jaylen Brown (hamstring), who will miss his second straight game. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 4-0 ATS on the road. They were underdogs in each contest, yet they won each game outright. Add in Pascal Siakam returning and they have a favorable chance of winning this game as well. |
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11-10-21 | Bucks v. Knicks -4 | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Bucks, who have injury issues and will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set. Jrue Holiday has battled an ankle injury that previously forced him to miss five straight games, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sit this out. This would be his third game in the last four days. The Knicks could be thin at center with Mitchell Robinson (hip) and Nerlens Noel (knee) listed as questionable. But with a deeper overall roster and home-court advantage, take them to cover. |
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11-10-21 | Pistons v. Rockets -148 | 112-104 | Loss | -148 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Assuming they both play, and I have no reason to think they won't, it's the first matchup in the NBA of the top two draft picks this year in No. 1 Cade Cunningham of Detroit and No. 2 Jalen Green of Houston -- Green has been much better so far. I'm simply taking the Rockets being at home in a matchup of horrible clubs (it's on ESPN because of the rookies). The Pistons haven't come close to an away win yet. |
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11-10-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +120 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Maple Leafs are 1-3-0 on the road this season and John Tavares is a game time decision. Jack Campbell has been very good but so has Carter Hart to start the season. The Flyers are 6-2-2 overall and 3-1-1 at home this season. These teams didn’t see each other last season so there isn’t a ton of matchup history here, but the Flyers have won 5 of the last 6 games between these teams in Philly. I think the wrong team is favored, so I am riding the home dog tonight. |
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11-10-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell has a 2.09 GAA this season and that number is 1.75 this month. Flyers counterpart Carter Hart has a 1.98 GAA at home. Toronto star John Tavares is a game-time decision with an injury. I am monitoring that and if he's out will come back on the Flyers moneyline -- I might anyways. The Under is 6-1 in the Maple Leafs' past seven road games. |
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11-09-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -110 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden Knights are still missing many key players, but the Kraken are 1-5-1 on the road this season. They also just gave the Coyotes their first win of the season by blowing a late 3rd period lead. The Golden Knights know Philip Grubauer from his time in Colorado and Grubauer is just 4-5-1 with a 2.97 GAA this season. Take the Knights at home. |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers have been awful on the road this season. Not only have they lost all four games, three of them came by at least 10 points. Included is a 30-point loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles. This game should be closer, but I still like the Clippers to cover this small number. |
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11-09-21 | Kentucky v. Duke -2.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Obviously it's a challenge handicapping a college basketball team's first game of the season -- this is part of the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden -- and both these programs hugely underachieved last season. Duke does bring three starters back and should have the best player on the floor in freshman Paolo Banchero, very possibly the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. UK might be without one key transfer in Iowa's CJ Fredrick, a great three-point shooter. Then there's the Mike Krzyzewski factor. You think his players don't want to win Coach K's final-ever season opener? Tuesday marks Coach K's 1,400th game as Duke's head coach. The Blue Devils are 39-2 in season openers under Krzyzewski, including winning 21 straight. Welcome back college hoops! |
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11-09-21 | Penguins -115 v. Blackhawks | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with Evgeni Malkin (knee) and Sidney Crosby (wrist/COVID) appearing in a total of one game thus far this season, Pittsburgh has stayed afloat offensively as 16 different players have scored a goal, with seven recording three or more. The Penguins posted a 5-2 win at home on Oct. 16 against Chicago, which has lost 11 of its first 13 games. The Blackhawks have scored fewer than three goals in eight of their contests while Pittsburgh has allowed two or fewer in half of its 10 games. Take the Penguins. |
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11-09-21 | Penguins v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll pretty much go Under 6 goals whenever I can ... Chicago is still among the NHL's lowest-scoring teams, and both clubs remain without a couple of key forwards due to injury, COVID, etc. Both netminders -- Tristan Jarry and Marc-Andre Fleury -- are capable of dominating. |
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11-09-21 | Blues v. Jets -120 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jets were shutout at home for their first home loss of the season in their last game, so I expect a better effort out of them tonight. The Blues started hot, but they have won just 3 of Jordan Binnington’s last 4 starts. Connor Hellebuyck should be returning tonight from an illness and the Jets are healthy. Take the value on the Jets at home. |
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11-09-21 | Coppin State +31.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 45-103 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread seems quite high considering it will be a bit of a transition for Loyola early in the season after losing excellent coach Porter Moser to Oklahoma, although his former assistant Drew Valentine takes over. Ramblers star Cameron Krutwig is now playing in Belgium. Coppin State is a solid MEAC program that hung within 10 at Duke last year and tied for the MEAC regular-season title. I'd think the Eagles can manage to only lose by 30. |
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11-09-21 | Jackson State +27.5 v. Illinois | 47-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Needless to say, who wins this game isn't in question but Jackson State was a good SWAC team last year and was picked to finish third in the league this season. The Illini probably will sleepwalk a bit through this one with Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year Kofi Cockburn out due to suspension and senior guard Trent Frazier in question with a knee injury. The Tigers were 5-1 ATS in their final six road games last year. They can stay within 26 or so. |
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11-09-21 | Miami-OH v. Georgia Tech -9 | 72-69 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yellow Jackets lost ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jose Alvarado, which has created holes to fill but also some value. Senior Michael Devoe (15.0 ppg) has unlimited range and will lead this team after winning ACC Tournament MVP honors. Former USC transfer Jordan Usher is a 6-7 defensive whiz. Deebo Coleman and Miles Kelly are top-100 recruits, evidence that Josh Pastner is attracting better talent. The RedHawks return everyone from a squad that went 9-8 in the MAC. They rely on their smallish backcourt for scoring, but could struggle versus Tech's length. |
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11-09-21 | Hurricanes +115 v. Lightning | 2-1 | Win | 115 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hurricanes are coming off their first loss of the season and were quite possibly looking ahead to this game. Tampa Bay eliminated the Hurricanes in five games from last year's playoffs. Note: Carolina outshot Tampa Bay 151-133 in the series. The Hurricanes own a +44 shot differential in 10 games, while Tampa Bay has a +16 shot differential in 11 games. Carolina has scored 39 goals while allowing 20. Tampa Bay has scored 35 goals while allowing 34. The Lightning are 0-4 in in their past four games when playing with two days of rest. Tampa Bay will be without top blue-liner Mikhail Sergachev, as he's serving a two-game suspension. Take the road dog. |
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11-09-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Canes allowed 4 goals in the first period of their last game so they should come out with more urgency defensively. However, they will need to keep up with the Lightning with scoring on the road. These teams know each other so well so I expect it to be a back-and-forth matchup. I like this over at 5.5 because we get the win scenario at 4-2 with an empty netter or if it gets tied 3-3. Take the over. |
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11-09-21 | Kansas -180 v. Michigan State | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tom Izzo lost three of his best players in Aaron Henry, Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts plus solid reserve Foster Loyer to transfer. Touted recruit Emoni Bates once was committed to Sparty but ended up at Memphis. Kansas, meanwhile, is absolutely loaded with four starters back (although Jalen Wilson is suspended the first three games) and added Arizona State transfer Remy Martin, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year. I'll be shocked if KU doesn't win this game but it would be typical Spartans to fight hard and cover 4.5 points so we'll do the moneyline. |
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11-09-21 | Belmont -3.5 v. Ohio | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The tough Ohio Valley Conference competition wore Belmont down last season. The Bruins failed to cover their last five games and missed the NCAA Tournament. But all those starters are back from the team that dominated the regular season. Ohio had some March Madness success but lost its best player to the NBA. Take Belmont to cover. |
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11-09-21 | Rider v. Duquesne UNDER 149 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Every model I can find has this final score being at least six points lower than the listed total -- the SportsLine Projection Model has it at 141 points. KenPom ranks Rider at No. 206 in adjusted offensive efficiency entering the season and Duquesne 225. Both schools added a ton of transfers so the offenses could be rather shaky in the early going. The Dukes are replacing 10 of their top 12 scorers from last year's opening day roster. One of those top transfers, RJ Gunn, is not expected to play due to injury. |
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11-09-21 | Eastern Michigan +24.5 v. Indiana | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thanks to Trayce Jackson-Davis, Mike Woodson's first season at Indiana may end in an NCAA Tournament berth. But this is too many points, even against a lower-tier MAC team. Noah Farrakhan, a highly touted recruit who transferred from East Carolina, will be the key for new coach Stan Heath. He erupted for 27 points in a 74-69 exhibition road win over Oakland. He'll beat defenders off the dribble and set up his teammates. Take the points. |
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11-08-21 | Hawks v. Warriors -3.5 | 113-127 | Win | 102 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s been a rough start to the season for the Hawks, who have lost five of their last six games. Four of those losses came on the road and all five came by at least four points. In fact, three of those came by at least 11 points. The Warriors are a sparkling 8-1 with a league high +13.7 point differential. Add in home-court advantage, and the Warriors have a favorable chance of covering. |
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11-08-21 | Heat -125 v. Nuggets | 96-113 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's go ahead and back Miami now because the Nuggets just ruled out Michael Porter Jr. with back trouble so this number might grow a point or two (I'm taking the ML to avoid a push on a possible one-point Miami win). Porter is having a terrible season but is still the team's second-most talented player behind Nikola Jokic. The Heat are healthy for the most part. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home. |
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11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tomlin has been unable to get his troops to fully focus under the Monday Night lights where they are 1-4 ATS at home under his lead in non-division contests, including 0-3 ATS when coming off a win. For Chicago, it was another week of frustration, as they enter this contest on a 0-3 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) slide. Despite failed fourth-quarter drives, QB Justin Fields still had a solid performance in a losing cause against San Francisco last week, going 19-of-27 for 175 yards, one touchdown and the pick. He also scrambled 10 times for 103 rushing yards and another score. However, Chicago brings a 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS ledger in games against the AFC North, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with a losing record into this battle. |
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11-08-21 | Knicks v. 76ers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers have decided to rest Joel Embiid and are still missing Tobias Harris (COVID-19). They defeated Portland in the only other game Embiid has missed this season, which also was a contest in which Harris sat. However, with the Knicks looking to bounce back from Sunday's disappointing loss to Cleveland, expect them to take advantage of Philadelphia's depth issues. |
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11-08-21 | Panthers -119 v. Rangers | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams were off Sunday after playing Saturday, when the host Panthers ended the Carolina Hurricanes' nine-game winning streak with a 5-2 win and the Rangers absorbed a 6-0 loss to the Calgary Flames. The loss was the third straight for the Rangers, who opened the four-game road trip by beating the Seattle Kraken 3-1 on Halloween night but were outscored 15-7 in losing to the Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers and Flames. The shutout Saturday capped a frustrating back-to-back set for the Rangers, who began trending for all the wrong reasons in squandering a 4-1 lead against the Oilers in Friday's 6-5 overtime loss. Connor McDavid forced overtime by weaving through four New York players to collect the tying goal with 2:59 left before Leon Draisaitl scored 3:27 into the extra session. The Rangers then mustered just 22 shots Saturday, when they gave up at least six goals in a second consecutive game for the first time since Jan. 2 and 4, 2019, when New York fell to the Pittsburgh Penguins 7-2 and the Colorado Avalanche 6-1. With the NHL-leading Panthers awaiting, the Rangers lamented their inability to knock off the Oilers and Flames, who entered play Sunday ranked first and second in the Western Conference in points. At 10-0-1, the Panthers have thus far made winning look simple. They are on the longest points streak to start a season since the Chicago Blackhawks opened 21-0-3 in 2012-13 and are one game shy of tying the franchise record for the longest points streak to start a season. Of Florida's 10 wins, just three (overtime victories over the Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings and Washington Capitals) have been by fewer than two goals. |
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11-08-21 | Panthers v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers are good defensively, but the Canes were one of the best defensive teams in the league before the Panthers put up four goals on them in the first period. Both goalies have been good this season, but Shesterkin allowed 6 goals in his last game. The Panthers are very potent offensively and I think that will make this game high scoring. The Panthers road games average 5 goals per game while the Rangers home games average 5 goals per game, so it is easy to why this is the line. However, the Panthers should still get their 3-4 goals while the Rangers should be able to score 2-3 themselves. Take this before it moves to 6. |
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11-07-21 | Stars v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five straight Canucks games have landed on five goals or fewer so why wouldn't I go Under here? Dallas is the third-worst scoring team in the league and has scored more than three goals once. |
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11-07-21 | Titans +8 v. Rams | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Titans are 5-0 ATS as a dog versus .800 or greater opponents, as well as 5-0-1 ATS in this series. For the Rams, sometimes NFL scores can be misleading. This is one of those instances. The Rams dominated the Houston game from start to finish, eventually leading 38-0 before allowing the Texans 22 unanswered points in junk time. However, they will need to exert more of themselves against this red-hot juggernaut today. With a Monday night fight up next against division rival San Francisco, and just 2-8 ATS before Monday nighters, look for the Rams to fall tonight. Consider that NFL Sunday Night dogs of more than 7 points are 18-4 ATS when facing a non-division foe coming off a win of more than 14 points. |
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11-07-21 | Islanders v. Wild -115 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both these teams played last night and won, but the Wild will be at home while the Islanders are still on their month long road trip to start the season. The Wild came back from down 4-2 to tie the game with 2 seconds left before winning it in a shootout. They are still missing Mats Zuccarello but they should bring some of that momentum with them into tonight’s game. The Islanders have been playing well lately on the road, but Semyon Varlamov will make his first start of the season tonight after being out due to general soreness from their playoff run. Take the Wild at home. |
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11-07-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Knicks | 126-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cavaliers enter this matchup having won three straight. In each of those games, they were underdogs by at least five points. Despite those outright wins, they again find themselves as heavy underdogs. Winning this game will be difficult for Cleveland, but give me the points. |
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11-07-21 | Nets v. Raptors +3.5 | 116-103 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto will see the season debut of arguably its best player in forward Pascal Siakam, a good defender who can give Kevin Durant some trouble -- well as much trouble as is possible giving Durant. With Siakam and stud rookie Scottie Barnes, the Raptors might be pretty dang good. I'll happily take the points here. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road. |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers OVER 41 | 24-6 | Loss | -104 | 76 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All non-division ROAD teams who scored 25 > pts in each of their last 4 games (PATS), when the OU line is less than 56 points is 16-3-1 O/U L4 years. All NFL favorites of < 6 pts who scored 110 > combined points in their last 3 games (PATS), when the OU line is < 47 points is 9-1 O/U since 2010. In addition all game 14 < NFC home teams vs an AFC opponent )PANTHERS vs PATRIOTS), when the OU Line is LESS than ( |
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11-07-21 | Texans v. Dolphins OVER 45.5 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Total of the Day All teams who scored 22 or less points in each of their last 6 games (HOU) are 7-1 O/U L3 years. The Texans are the worst rushing team in the entire league (only 3.3 yards per rush this year). All game 8 > road dogs of > 4 pts who average 3.5 or less yards per rush on the year (HOU), when the OU line is < 48 points is 9-1 O/U L5 years. With both teams on multi-game losing streaks, we’ll close with the fact that all home favorite of 6 > pts when both teams are off 4+ SU losses in a row (MIA / HOU) are 12-2 O/U since 1990. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens UNDER 50.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Non-Conference games are taking center stage in the NFL this week, with more than half of all games (8) featuring a NFC team taking on a AFC opponent. We’ll be Going low in one of those non-conf affairs, specifically the VIKINGS @ RAVENS game... with an OU line around 49.5 points. All Week 8 AFC home favs of > 3 pts (Bal) vs any NFC opponent (Min), when the OU Line is in the range of 40 to 52 points is 0-8-1 O/U L20 years. This will be the 8th game this season between these two particular divisions. And so far, AFC NORTH vs NFC NORTH games have gone 1-7 O/U, with an average of only 39.1 combined PPG. The host Ravens come in well rested after their Bye Week. They’ve had two weeks to ‘stew’ after getting shocked by the Bengals in Week Seven. Finally consider that All teams AFTER their Bye Week off a SU favorite loss in their previous game (Balt), when the OU line is > 44 points is 5-23-1 O/U since 2012 and 1-10 O/U L4 years. |
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11-07-21 | Bills v. Jaguars UNDER 48.5 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All underdogs off a SU loss of 15 > pts (Jacksonville) vs any opponent off a SU win of 15 > pts (Buffalo) is 1-13 O/U last 2 years. Jacksonville allowed 31 points last week while Buffalo allowed only 11 points. All underdogs of 6 > pts after allowing 31 > pts (Jacksonville) vs any opponent who allowed 11 < pts in their previous game (Buffalo), when the OU line is 54 or less points is 1-9 O/U last 2 years: . The clincher: Jacksonville has already gone a perfect 0-5 O/U this season in their non-division games (only 42.4 combined PPG). |
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11-07-21 | Falcons +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition, the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990. The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980. . |
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11-06-21 | UTSA v. UTEP +12 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit CFB Upset of the Day UTEP battled back from a 28-10 4Q deficit to fall, 28-25, at Florida Atlantic last week, but at 6-2 this season, the Miners will be bowling for the fi rst time since 2014. Why, you ask? Because they are 7-1 ITS (In The Stats), winning the stats by +100 YPG, and are 4-2 ATS as double-digit pups over the past two seasons. Will another double-digit dog pull an upset this week? A total of 34 FBS games have fallen into that category this season and this has a strong possibility of being another. Consider as well that playing against any 7-0 or greater college football dog road favorite coming off a week of rest if they are facing a .444 or greater opponent that is not coming off a win of 7 or more points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-06-21 | Celtics v. Mavs -3 | 104-107 | Push | 0 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The big news surrounding the Celtics is that Jaylen Brown (hamstring) will miss this game. That’s a huge loss given his averages of 25.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Meanwhile, the Mavericks could get back Kristaps Porzingis (back), who practiced Friday. I think Porzingis plays and the Celtics will have a hard time scoring enough to keep this game close on the road. |
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11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls haven’t played since Wednesday, against these same Sixers. That game was played in Philadelphia. The Bulls were down big early and tried to mount a comeback in the second half, but they ultimately lost by five. The big news surrounding the Sixers is their outbreak of COVID-19. Tobias Harris was first to test positive and now Matisse Thybulle was placed inside the health and safety protocols Friday. His defense against Zach LaVine was big in the last game, so with him out and this game being played in Chicago, I’ll roll with the Bulls to win in decisive fashion. |
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11-06-21 | Islanders v. Jets +109 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eric Comrie has been very good in relief for Connor Hellebuyck while he has been out with a sickness, and the Jets are still undefeated at home. The Islanders are still in the midst of their month-long road trip to start the season and they are 4-2-2. They have allowed just 20 goals all season but they have also only scored 23. This value on the Jets at home is just too good to pass up, I like the value on the Jets. |
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11-06-21 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs -128 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This rivalry gets renewed for the first time since 2019 but this time will be without Tuuka Rask and Nick Foligno for the Bruins. The Bruins are also 1-3-0 on the road this season while the Maple Leafs are 5-1-1 at home. The Leafs have won four straight games and they do tend to win the home games in this series despite getting dominated when in Boston and in the playoffs. Take the Maple Leafs at home. |
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11-06-21 | Avalanche v. Blue Jackets +156 | 2-4 | Win | 156 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jackets are 4-1-0 at home this season and they are 6-3-0 on the season. Elvis Merzlikins is starting, and he is 4-1-0 with a 1.97 GAA on the season. The Aves are just 4-4-1 to start the season including 2-2-0 on the road. The Blue Jackets will be without Patrick Laine, who will be out for 4-6 weeks, but the Aves will be without Cale Makar again, and they could be without Andre Burakovsky and Mikko Rantaanen as well. I like the value in the Blue Jackets at home. |
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11-06-21 | Wild v. Penguins -116 | 5-4 | Loss | -116 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin are still out for the Penguins but Mats Zuccarello is out for the Wild. Kris Letang returned for the Penguins last game and proved to be a massive addition as he scored the OT goal to win. Both these goalies have been solid but the Wild have lost 6 of their last 7 games in Pittsburgh and 11 of the last 15 games overall, take the Penguins with the cheap home price. |
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11-06-21 | Hurricanes +126 v. Panthers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers have played three straight OT games. They defeated the Capitals in OT despite getting outshot 42-33. Panthers interim coach Andrew Brunette, who led his team to a 5-4 overtime win over the visiting Washington Capitals on Thursday night, wasn't quite ready to talk about Carolina. "That was an exhausting game," Brunette said after Florida blew a 4-1 lead in the final 22 minutes before scoring in OT. "I can't even think (about Carolina yet). I'm just going to enjoy this one." You better be prepared for the Hurricanes, who sport a +44 shot differential. Carolina is ranked No. 4 in face-off win percentage while Florida is ranked No. 27 this season. I like the road team. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week The 5-3 Boilermakers are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the stats by an average of 72 net YPG. They beat a Top 10-ranked Iowa team three weeks ago, and are looking to do the same here today. Consider this: the Spartans are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-Michigan meetings in which they managed to score 30 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in games in which MSU allows more than 20 PPG. They are also 1-5 SUATS after taking on UM in games in which they coughed up 30-plus points. Can you spell L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Also consider that playing against any college football road favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in its last game is o 4-20 ATS in this role from Game Seven out. And if this is a conference game, they drop to 3-18 ATS. |
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11-06-21 | California -11.5 v. Arizona | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Mismatch On the heels of back-to-back wins, call this a crucial game for the 3-5 |
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11-06-21 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. North Carolina | 55-58 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units North Carloina takes the field here with a 22-38 ATS mark versus undefeated opponents, including 0-7 SUATS after allowing 35 or more points in his team’s previous game. The inconsistent Heels have won back-to-back games just once this year, but to their credit, they have not lost two consecutive games, either. That starts today as you consider that Head coach Dave Clawson is 24-12 ATS against conference foes without a winning record, including 5-0 ATS when his team sports a .800 or greater win percentage. |
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11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5.5 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitCFB Game of the Week The 44-37 defeat was the first loss of the season for SMU, and Dykes now runs into another prolific passing attack in Memphis, ranked 18th in the nation (296 YPG). He is also 4-11 ATS as conference road chalk, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents. Meanwhile, Memphis had covered six straight times in this series until getting nipped last season, 30-27, on a field goal at the final gun. That sets up a conference revenge situation for the Tigers, a role in which they are 4-1 ATS at home. In addition, at 4-4 on the season, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is battling to earn a bowl bid for the eighth year in a row. A win today will help, and so does the fact that SMU is 2-9 ATS as a conference road favorite of 17 or fewer points, including 0-4 ATS from Game Nine out. Better yet, playing against any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its initial loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980. |
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11-05-21 | Devils v. Kings -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Devils are without their two best players in defenseman Dougie Hamilton and forward Jack Hughes. The former is out long term and has been missing for a while, but Hamilton was hurt Tuesday. He has been great with a co-team-leading six points and a plus-4 rating. The Kings are meh but have won three straight and are at home. This is more fading the Devils, who also are on the front end of a B2B. |
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11-05-21 | Predators v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I generally will not do many Under 5.5s but every model out there has this as easily the lowest-scoring game of the night: SportsLine's has it with 4.9 goals. Neither team is great offensively, especially Vancouver, and the Preds are missing one of their best scorers in Filip Forsberg. Canucks netminder Thatcher Demko has a 2.39 GAA at home. |
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11-05-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Ducks | 1-3 | Loss | -165 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I really had no interest in this game but now will take a shot on the winless Coyotes on the puckline at -170, which is the same price as an Anaheim moneyline win. The Yotes have been competitive of late and netminder Karel Vejmelka has a 1.69 GAA and .951 save percentage through his last three starts. He gets no offensive help. Ducks No. 1 goaltender John Gibson has just been ruled out and backup Anthony Stolarz is 0-2-1 with a 3.63 GAA. I smell upset win here but will take the +1.5. If Arizona were home, I would take it outright. |
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11-05-21 | Rangers v. Oilers UNDER 6 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I may come back and play Edmonton on the moneyline, but I'm often going to play Under 6 goals and will do so here. The Oilers obviously can score with anyone, but the Rangers aren't a high-scoring team and netminder Igor Shesterkin has been great with a 1.85 GAA. Edmonton's Mikko Koskinen has a 2.18 GAA and has allowed five combined goals in his past three. A few books had this at 6.5 so if you can get that do it for sure (6.5 is where I'll officially play it even if an alt line), but I can't here and I see it moving down already at those other ones. |
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11-05-21 | Rangers v. Oilers -154 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, I got burned on the total because reports this morning were that No. 1 Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin was starting but now comes word that it's Alexandar Georgiev instead. He's still very capable but not as good. Maybe we still get lucky on the total but now I am on the Oilers moneyline, which has risen about 15 cents. |
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11-05-21 | Clippers -2 v. Wolves | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams just played in Minnesota on Wednesday and the Clippers won by 11 points. D’Angelo Russell (ankle) did not play and won’t take the floor Friday, either. As good as Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards have been, the loss of Russell puts the Timberwolves’ offense in a tough spot. Take the Clippers to cover. |
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11-05-21 | Blackhawks v. Jets UNDER 6 | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jets apparently will stick with backup Eric Comrie in net because No. 1 Connor Hellebuyck is sick, but Comrie has been quite solid. Chicago's Marc-Andre Fleury has allowed just one goal in two of his past three. The Hawks are near the bottom in scoring at 2.27 per and remain without top-six forward Tyler Johnson. I was leaning the Jets on the ML, but it's a bit steep at -170 without Hellebuyck so I'll take the shot on the total and believe we will do no worse than a push. |
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11-05-21 | Grizzlies +2 v. Wizards | 87-115 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a 5-1 start to the season, the Wizards have lost back-to-back games. First, they fell to the Hawks by seven points on the road. Then, they lost by nine points to the Raptors at home. Those were two tough matchups and Friday brings another one against the Grizzlies. They are 6-2 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog. They won three of those games, outright. With Ja Morant rolling, I like them to continue their success as underdogs. |
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11-04-21 | Sabres v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of a back-to-back for Buffalo, which will be without top-line forward Victor Olofsson for a second straight game due to injury. He has five goals and four assists. The Sabres are using backup Dustin Tokarski in net, but he has a 1.92 GAA this year in three appearances. Seattle, meanwhile, is just not a great offensive team -- no surprise as an expansion club -- but netminder Philipp Grubauer is more than capable of blanking short-handed Buffalo. He has a 1.77 GAA at home. |
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11-04-21 | Stars v. Flames -140 | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames burned us in their last game at home in OT to move to 1-0-2 at home this season. Jacob Markstrom has still been one of the best, if not the best, goalie so far this season while the Stars have been struggling to score. They have scored just 18 goals in 9 games and they are 2-3-1 on the road this season. The Stars have lost 4 straight games while the Flames have started 6-1-2, take the Flames at home. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts are in must-win mode as they enter a two-game stretch of games against the lowly Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis lost 34-31 in overtime to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Quarterback Carson Wentz threw one interception with less than two minutes left in regulation and another in overtime. The Jets come into this one off a big win but that euphoria may be short-lived, as they arrive in Indianapolis with an 0-3 ATS mark in Thursday action, and a 1-7 SUATS failure when coming off a win as a 7-point or larger dog. The Colts counter with a 14-4-1 ATS effort on Thursdays, and a near-perfect 5-0-1 ATS mark after tangling with the Titans. |
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11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat -6.5 | 95-78 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat look like they are on a mission this season. They are 6-1, with their only loss coming on the road to the Pacers in their second game. At home, they are 3-0 with all three wins coming by at least 15 points. The Celtics will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set and have been underwhelming out the gate, posting a 3-5 record. This will also be their third game in the last four days, two of which will be on the road. Despite this large number, I still like the Heat to cover Thursday. |
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11-04-21 | Flyers v. Penguins -119 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We went 0-3 on Penguins plays last week and all three losses were at home, but they can’t lose 4 straight at home can they?? The Penguins are currently last in the Metropolitan Division with their losing streak, so I think they finally put together a good game tonight. Carter Hart has been playing well to start the season but so has Tristan Jarry. Take the Pens at home. |