Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-21-23 | Brewers +100 v. Cardinals | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have won four of their last six games and three of their last five road games and have scored 18 runs in their last four games. St. Louis starter Mikolas has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 15 runs in his last three home starts and with St. Louis having the eighth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Cardinals have lost three of their last five games and have struggled offensively and scored only 11 runs in their last four games. Miley has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, especially on the road where he gave up 11 runs in his last six starts. He gave up one run in his last two starts in St. Louis. |
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09-20-23 | Giants +101 v. Diamondbacks | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants always have a great chance to win games when Logan Webb is on the mound. The Giants ace is capable of going seven to eight innings. He limited the Rockies to one run in eight innings last time out. Webb usually silences Arizona, holding the rivals to six runs in 21 innings this season. Merrill Kelly can be shaky. He just gave up seven runs to the Mets and has surrendered 16 runs in his last four outings spanning 22.2 innings. Arizona has only won in four of Kelly’s last ten outings. The Giants have beaten the Diamondbacks in three of their last four meetings. |
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09-20-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kirby has stumbled a bit over his last five starts with an elevated ERA and 0-2 in that span. He has a perfect opportunity here against the light-hitting A's lineup to get back on track. Kirby has faced the A's once this season and was sharp going seven innings and allowing just three runs in a Mariners' win. The A's will have to cobble together a group of pitchers to with no available starter to give them a long stint. The Mariners lineup should have its way with the A's staff today as they try to stay with the Rangers and Blue Jays in the wildcard race. Looking for yet another easy win by Seattle. |
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09-20-23 | White Sox v. Nationals -125 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have lost five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games and have only scored 15 runs in their last four games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they haven’t had a lot of success batting against right-handers and Gray has done a decent job on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last two starts. The Nationals have also struggled in recent games, losing six of their last eight games. But, they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Scholtens has struggled on the mound, giving up 14 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two road starts, and with Chicago having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Nationals in this game. |
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09-19-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Castillo has had pretty good stuff recently, holding three of his last four opponents to eight total hits in 19 combined frames. He's held five of his last seven opponents to four combined runs, too. The M's could use another quality start from him today after dropping four of six games to the LA clubs. Blackburn has only lasted six total innings in his last two outings, giving up six runs and ten hits, including three home runs. The Mariners actually have better road splits (.248 BA/.326 OBP/.428 SLG/.754 OPS) than home splits (.239/.318/.402/.720) and had some success against the A's starter last season, scoring seven runs on ten hits on June 22. Seattle sports a 23-16 RL record (59.0%) against its division opponents this season. |
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09-19-23 | Orioles +145 v. Astros | 9-5 | Win | 145 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles still have not clinched anything in the AL East and need to pick up winnable games like this down the stretch. Astros' starter Brown has struggled over his last five starts with an ERA over seven. He has also been less than effective at home this season with a 4-7 record and an ERA close to six. Brown was also banged up in his one start against the Orioles this season allowing eight hits and five runs including two home runs. The Orioles' Gibson has an ERA close to five but he also has 16 quality starts and a team-leading 14 wins. I expect Gibson to hang in this game and get the Orioles to the back end of their bullpen to put this game away. |
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09-19-23 | Brewers -119 v. Cardinals | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are getting closer to securing the division title. They have won seven of their last eleven games and continue to excel on the mound. The Cardinals have only won four of their last eight games after a series loss to the Phillies. Brewers’ expected bulk pitcher Colin Rea has issued a solid 3.29 ERA this month. Cards’ pitcher Drew Rom is a struggling rookie. He has squandered 17 runs in 22 innings on the year and has only pitched more than five innings in two of his five outings. This is not ideal considering the Cardinals bullpen has a poor 4.53 ERA. |
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09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have lost four straight games and five of their last six home games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only six runs in their last three games haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Woo has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last three starts. He didn’t give up a run in his only start against them and with Seattle having the fifth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Oakland’s cold bats in check The Mariners have lost three of their last five games. They’ve also struggled offensively, but they’ve done a great job batting against left-handers and Sears has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up nine runs in his last four starts. He gave up 12 runs in his last four home starts, and with Oakland having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mike Tomlin does not take to losing consecutive home games very well, where he is 8-1 outright in the get-even game. Tomlin is also 7-1 ATS the last eight games as a dog after a game where he was a dog, and 13-4-5 ATS as a home dog in his career with Pittsburgh. The Browns are feeling good about themselves after destroying Cincinnati at the Dawg Pound last week, however they are just 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-18-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers -156 | 4-2 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers will get back on track at home today after being swept by the Guardians in Cleveland. Montgomery has held Boston to three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 career outings, including eight consecutive. He bounced back with a strong showing in his last start and will tame a Red Sox lineup that's hitting just .234 BA/.298 OBP/.390 SLG/.689 OPS this month. The Rangers will jump on Crawford early and pile on runs against the Boston bullpen (4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), which has surrendered the fourth-most homers (75) in MLB this year. Texas hits .274 BA/.348 OBP/.492 SLG/.840 OPS at Globe Life Field, scoring 5.8 runs per game. |
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09-18-23 | Guardians -116 v. Royals | 4-6 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams are playing hard despite being out of the playoff picture as the season winds to a close. The Guardians still have a chance to end with a winning season while the Royals are motivated by trying to avoid the team's worst season of all-time. I'm leaning toward the Guardians in this matchup. Quantrill has been far from dominant but he has been efficient since returning from IL. He's gone six innings in each of his three starts since returning and has given up a total of three runs in those starts. The Royals' Singer has seemingly hit the wall after looking sharp in the middle portion of the season. He is 0-3 in his last five starts with an ERA over seven. Look for the Guardians to pick up the road win on Monday afternoon against the struggling Singer. |
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09-17-23 | Tigers -103 v. Angels | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit has won four of its last six overall and seven of the last nine that the Tigers have played on the road. Los Angeles has lost nine of its last 12 played at home and 11 of the last 15 when facing an American League team. Due to injuries, LA is without a combined 57 home runs and 210 RBI. The Angels must also play without a host of starting pitchers and relievers, including relievers Jamie Barria (0-2, 6 saves), Sam Bachman (0-1, 1 save), Austin Warren (0-1) and Jose Quijada (0-1, 4 saves). The four relievers have made a combined 55 appearances. Los Angeles starting pitcher Reid Detmers has a 4.77 ERA, while serving up 19 home runs in 137 ⅔ innings and allowing 73 earned runs. Detmers has walked 54. |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers' offense will likely be chomping at the bit to face Corbin at home on Sunday. Corbin has given up a ton of hits compared to innings pitched and has an ERA over five this season. The Brewers have to feel confident with Woodruff going today. Woodruff is undefeated in his last five starts and has an ERA under two for the season. At home, Woodruff is 3-1 with an ERA of nearly one while piling up strikeouts. Once the Brewers 1A ace along with Corbin Burnes, Woodruff once again has taken on the look of a co-ace. |
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09-17-23 | Braves -130 v. Marlins | 2-16 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves continue to dominate. They have won five consecutive road series and are a dominant 9-2 against the Marlins this season entering Saturday after the Marlins finally beat them on Friday. The Marlins have not been able to solve Braves' starter Charlie Morton this season. The veteran has limited the rivals to only one run in 12.2 innings this season. Morton is reliable, allowing two or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. Marlins’ pitcher Jesus Luzardo remains inconsistent. He just conceded six runs against the Brewers and has a mediocre 4.38 career ERA against the Braves. |
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09-17-23 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Lions | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Seattle is 4-0 SUATS in this series, as well as 21-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off a win. In addition, Seattle’s head coach thrives against teams coming off a win from this division, going 11-3 outright in his career, including 5-0 when the foe is coming off an upset win. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -170 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -170 | 88 h 8 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units NFL division teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a division loss in Game One, are 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS since 1990 if they were a playoff team last season, including games against opponents who are coming off a SUATS win. The Ravens are a horrible 2-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS record of late when coming off a no-division game and taking on an opponent off a division game. The Bengals 8-1 ATS when coming off a road game and facing a foe off a home game. Finally, playing on any NFL home team in Game Two coming off a loss if they were a playoff team last season and they are facing a division opponent coming off a win is a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2010. |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Raymond James Stadium and 1-4 ATS in the first of a two-game homestand. The Bears are 6-3 ATS in the first of consecutive road games. Tampa comes into this one off a phony 20-17 win at Minnesota in which they lost the stats, 369-242, whereas the Bears were edged, 329-311, in total yards in their 18-point loss to the Packers. Finally, Tamp QB Baker is only 9-21-2 as a favorite in the NFL, including losing his last eight. |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia HC Pederson is 16-12-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as an underdog when seeking revenge, including 4-0 ATS in the last four games. And Jacksonville brings a perfect 6-0 ATS home dog log into this contest – winning all six games outright! Consider that the Chiefs come in with a 2-7 ATS record in the last nine regular-season games against the AFC South, and are 1-4 ATS after a Thursday contest. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Steve Sarkisian became just the third former assistant to knock off Nick Saban. In the same vein, these same former assistants are just 1-6 ATS in follow-up contests when tackling .750 or greater foes. UT just 3-8 ATS at home before battling the Bears. Finally, favorites of 16 or more points coming off an upset win over Alabama are 2-9 ATS since 1980, including 0-4 ATS if they were a dog of 7-plus points versus the Crimson Tide. |
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09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 0 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in games in which both teams enter off an ATS win and 8-2 ATS as a home dog with a win percentage less than .666. Additionally, Home teams in Game Three of the season, who were in a bowl team last season and are coming off a road win that was preceded by a season-opening home loss, are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Syracuse versus sub-.666 avenging foes, is just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS in this role (0-11 the last eleven). |
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09-16-23 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Ole Miss | 23-48 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Lane Kiffin has struggled at home in non-conference contests, going 8-13 ATS overall in his career, including 2-10 ATS at home when coming off a non-conference clash. We are concerned that Ole Miss had a tough time with Tulane last week without their star QB Michael Pratt. Kiffin saw his explosive RB Quinshon Judkins completely bottled up (18 carries for 48 yards) and could not put the Green Wave away until kicker Caden Davis hit a 56-yard field goal in the final two minutes. New Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key was a former Nick Saban assistant and knows the SEC, and his troops are averaging 41 PPG and are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats) to starts his tenure. We believe a take is in order tonight. |
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09-16-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have everything to play for this weekend while the struggling Nats are just trying to close out their season. Washington has lost four of five heading into this series and the Brewers have won five of seven. The Brewers will be in a great spot on Saturday with their ace, Burnes, on the hill. Despite going 0-2 in his last five starts, Burnes has an ERA under three in that span. The Nats' Williams has an ERA over seven in his last five starts and over five on the road this season in 14 starts. Williams also has been bitten by the long ball this season and the Brewers are a far better home run-hitting team at home this season. Look for the Brewers to move one step closer to the National League Central Division title with a win |
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09-16-23 | Rays v. Orioles +112 | 0-8 | Win | 112 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore just needs to win one game to salvage something from this series, and they're fortunate it's at home. Tampa Bay isn't a bad team on the road, but they're much worse than when they're in the Trop. Tyler Glasnow has given up at least three runs in both of his starts against the Orioles this year. In one of those, the final damage was six. Grayson Rodriguez has stopped the bleeding at two runs each time he faced the Rays. Rodriguez is also backed up by a bullpen that leads the league in WAR. If there's a team that can survive losing an All-Star closer, it's the 2023 Orioles. Baltimore's pitching gets the job done at home, securing a crucial victory. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 72 h 38 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Gators are 5-1 ATS in the last six, even with last year’s wild loss when UF was beaten 38-33 while a double-digit dog. UT on the other hand struggles early, their Game 3 record is an embarrassing 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in game three versus the SEC. After cake games versus FCS teams, the Vols limp around, going 1-5 ATS in the first game after an FCS opponent and in SEC openers, the Vols are also 1-5 ATS. Take them on the road and in games where the home team is seeking revenge, like this one, Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS, including 0-6 ATS if the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Florida’s Bill Napier is 17-8 ATS as the underdog, including 3-0 SUATS at home. |
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09-16-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +113 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yankees’ expected starter in this one is Luke Weaver. The veteran has been released by the Reds and Mariners this season due to his struggles. He has squandered eight runs in his last three outings spanning just 10.1 innings. Pirates’ starter Luis Ortiz has been solid recently, allowing two or fewer runs in three consecutive performances spanning 16.1 innings. He just limited the Braves to one run in 5.1 innings last time out. |
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09-16-23 | Penn State -14.5 v. Illinois | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State is on a 13-2 and 11-3-1 ATS roll going back to last season and lands at No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top Ten. The Nittany Lions can also claim one of today’s biggest revenge motives, falling to the Illini, 20-18, as 24.5-point home chalk in their last meeting in 2021. PSU comes into this matchup, going 6-1 ATS the last seven as conference road favorite, 6-2 ATS with conference revenge, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Finally, the visitor is 24-16 ATS in Penn State games. |
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09-16-23 | Kansas State -3.5 v. Missouri | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are always ready, or at least it seems that way, having suffered through just one ATS losing campaign over the last 15 years. Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has compiled a 28-14 SU and 25-13 ATS record since taking the job in Manhattan. A week ago, they took on a Troy team which exceled in the dog role, and promptly issued a 42-13 drubbing that goes along with a 375-76 rushing yards edge in the early going, with QB Howard an efficient 5/2 in the early going. The Tigers are annually figured as an upcoming force, but have had only 2 winning seasons over the last 8 years, & are in off a 17-pt ATS loss in narrow SU escape vs Middle Tennessee. |
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09-15-23 | Cubs -133 v. Diamondbacks | 4-6 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are 19-15 SU as road favorites, and the Diamondbacks are 12-20 SU as home underdogs this season. Chicago has a serious advantage on the mound with Steele facing the rookie Pfaadt. The Cubbies are hitting .266 BA/.335 OBP/.453 SLG/.789 OPS in the second half of the season and have turned it up a notch in night games this year (.265/.343/.437/.779). They knocked around Pfaadt a few days ago at Wrigley and will feel confident against him on Friday with their ace Steele toeing the rubber. The Diamondbacks were outscored 18-2 in their last two games in Queens and will continue to struggle tomorrow against the NL Cy Young award contender. |
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09-15-23 | Twins -168 v. White Sox | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins have won five of their last nine games and four of their last six road games and have scored 29 runs in their last three road games. They’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Scholtens has struggled on the mound for Chicago, giving up nine runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two home starts and with Chicago having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The White Sox have lost four of their last five games and five of their last seven home games. |
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09-15-23 | Rangers -116 v. Guardians | 3-12 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas struggled during most of August but the Rangers have found their mojo, waiting each of the five and have won five of the last six played on the road. Cleveland has lost seven of its last 10 and is close to being eliminated from postseason contention. Texas Rangers starter Jon Gray has been hit hard in each of the last three outings but the Rangers have won each of the three as their bats have stepped up to make up for the below par starts from Gray. In two starts since being acquired by Cleveland, right-hander Lucas Giolito has been roughed up allowing 13 earned runs in only 10 innings pitched and the Guardians have been defeated in both games by a combined score of 26-6. Texas has injuries to key players such as Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia but other talented stars such as Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Johan Heim have stepped up in the absence of the others. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins is 28-9-1 ATS when his team is coming off a loss and facing a greater than .400 opponent coming off a win, including 7-1-1 ATS within the first four games of the season. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in home openers the past six seasons, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home in Game Two of the season. Philadelphia comes into this one banged up defensively and defending Super Bowl losers standing 26-45-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss, including 17-37-1 ATS when favored by 10 or fewer points. Finally, Minnesota is 8-0-2 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points when coming off a SU favorite loss and taking on an opponent coming off a win. |
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09-14-23 | Navy +14 v. Memphis | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This year’s Tigers look mighty impressive after their 2-0 start, but the truth is they crushed a pair of cupcakes, beating Bethune Cookman, 56-14, and Arkansas State, 37-3. Navy comes in with a 7-1 ATS mark when coming off a home win, and 5-0 ATS road dog of late. Pair those stats with the Tigers’ weak 1-6 ATS record the last seven versus non-conference foes and a downright dismal 0-5 ATS failure when playing off a SUATS win, and we just can’t go against Navy this evening. To top it off, Memphis isn't the best of home favorites going 3-10 ATS. |
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09-14-23 | Rays v. Orioles -130 | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bradish has arguably been the Orioles' most reliable starter this season and that has never been more evident than in his last five starts when the right-hander has gone 4-0 with an ERA under two and a half. In addition, the Orioles have won each of Bradish's last seven starts heading into Thursday night and he has an ERA under two and a half at home as well. Civale has pitched very well in his stint with the Rays and has been excellent on the road. This game will come down to execution and the Orioles have excelled at that all season. Expect the Orioles to work the pitch count and commit to a small-ball mentality tonight. They are fifth in baseball in sacrifice hits this year and have solid team speed. Baltimore has taken six of the nine games against Tampa Bay this season heading into the series opener. |
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09-14-23 | Rangers +141 v. Blue Jays | 9-2 | Win | 141 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas starting pitcher Nathaniel Eovaldi has had three excellent appearances out of the last four. Over that stretch the right-hander has allowed four earned runs across 10 ⅔ innings, but each of the four runs were in one game, a 14-1 loss to Houston, while the right-hander did not allow any runs in each of the other three outings. Toronto starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has allowed seven runs across the last 17 innings. Both teams have struggled with injuries this season but Texas is missing just one big contributor at the plate in Josh Jung, while Toronto is without Brandon Belt, Matt Chapman and Danny Jensen who have all been productive this season when healthy. |
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09-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -116 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kelly hasn't been the same pitcher on the road as at home this season. Opponents are hitting .262 against him in road starts, compared to .186 at home, with 21 more hits in six fewer innings pitched. He's also struck out 27 fewer batters away from the friendly confines of Chase Field. This has been even more apparent recently. Senga, meanwhile, has been dominant at Citi Field, holding opponents to a .186 batting average with 106 strikeouts in 82 innings. He sports a 2.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 14 home starts, with 22 combined Ks in his last two outings in Queens. The D-Backs, who don't hit as well on the road (.245 BA and .318 OBP), will be his next victims. |
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are plenty of reasons to pick the Blue Jays to win this game. It begins on the mound, where Toronto is significantly better, especially in the bullpen. The starters in this game are about equal, so relief pitching will be one of the greatest factors in this matchup. Offensively, Toronto evens up with Texas on paper because they get to face a lefty. The Blue Jays have a team batting average of .280 against southpaws in 2023. Jordan Montgomery is also a pitcher that they've faced 11 times in his career, including a game earlier this year when they knocked him out after five innings. This game will probably be close until the bullpens come in, and that's when the Blue Jays will pull away for the win. |
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09-13-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Phillies | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Spencer Strider enjoys pitching against the Phillies. The ace has limited them to three runs in 12 innings this season and has a dominating 1.62 ERA and a 6-0 record in six career meetings against the rivals. Phillies pitcher Cris Sanchez recorded a weak 4.88 ERA in August. I recommend the run line considering eight of the Braves' last 10 wins have been by two or more runs. |
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09-13-23 | Rays v. Twins +113 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tampa Bay starting pitchers Taj Bradley has struggled in three of the last four starts. The 22-year old allowed one run in five innings versus Cleveland in his best start of the last four, but gave up a combined 12 runs in 16 ⅓ innings in the other three starts. Minnesota starter Dallas Keuchel has had three solid starts in the last four outings. The southpaw gave up five runs in 3 ⅓ innings to Texas in his worst start of the last four, but in the three others gave up a combined two earned runs in 16 ⅓ innings. Minnesota won each of those four games. |
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09-12-23 | Cubs -171 v. Rockies | 4-6 | Loss | -171 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs slash .263 BA/.342 OBP/.435 SLG/.777 OPS at night (79 GP) and have turned it up in the second half of the season (.263/.333/.453/.786). They're scoring 1.1 more runs per game post-All-Star weekend. Flexen has given up 12 home runs in 13 home appearances (47.1 IP) with a 35:20 K:BB ratio. Chicago's impressive lineup will jump on him early and often. Assad has been dominant on the road, giving up just 29 hits in 41.1 innings, and has also been impressive in night games (1.13 WHIP). He'll fare just fine against a Rockies team hitting .234/.297/.396/.693 in the second half of the season. |
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09-12-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland has lost four of its last six overall and when playing head to head versus Houston, has lost 10 of its last 11. Oakland also struggles on the road as the Athletics have lost 15 of the last 20 away from home. Oakland starter JP Sears has had two straight strong outings, but in two appearances this season versus Houston, has allowed seven runs in 11 ⅔ innings. Houston starting pitcher Justin Verlander has had three strong outings over the last four appearances, allowing a total of seven earned runs across 24 innings but six of the seven runs were in one game while allowing just one run across 18 innings in the other three starts. Houston's lineup top to bottom is much stronger than Oakland’s as the Astros have received excellent production from Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez and others. Houston does not have any of its position players on the injury list. |
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09-12-23 | Braves -118 v. Phillies | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves have won three of their last four games and six of their last seven road games and have scored 17 runs in their last three games. Philadelphia starter Wheeler has been shaky on the mound in recent home starts, giving up eight runs in his last three home starts. With Philadelphia’s bullpen struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Braves in this game. The Phillies have lost three of their last five games and three of their last four home games. Atlanta starter, Fried has done a good job on the mound for the Braves, especially on the road where he has given up only six runs in his last six starts. He gave up three runs in his last two starts against the Phillies, and with Atlanta having the second-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Philadelphia’s offense in check. Go with Atlanta to cover the money line. |
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09-11-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -131 | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Mets in the opener against the playoff-hungry Diamondbacks. Davies has not been sharp for the Diamondbacks this season and comes into this game with an ERA close to seven. Quintana, despite his record of just 2-5 overall, has pitched very well for New York. Quintana has almost consistently given the Mets a quality start and has an ERA under three in his last five starts. The Mets have also won three of their last four home games and scored over five runs per game in that span. Look for Quintana to keep the Diamondbacks off balance and the Mets lineup to power past Davies and the Diamondbacks in game one. |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 98 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Jets hosts division rival Buffalo sporting a long-term 8-5-1 ATS mark at home on Monday nights in division battles. They also bring a nifty 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in this series into this contest, including 4-0 SUATS as a competitive dog of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers enters on a nine-game win skein on Mondays. He is also 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. Finally, the Jets are 22-10-1 SU and 24-9 ATS of late, including 6-0 ATS in season opening games the past six years |
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09-11-23 | Cardinals v. Orioles -158 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. Louis (63-80) will send right-hander Dakota Hudson (6-1, 4.43 ERA) to the mound against Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer (12-5, 4.07) in the opener. Kremer has been on an extended roll. Over his past eight starts, he is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA while striking out 38 batters and walking 15. The Orioles are 7-1 in those games. Hudson has been up and down over his past three starts. On Aug. 26, he gave up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Then against the Pirates on Sept. 1, he allowed just one run over seven innings of a no-decision. Last time out, he earned a win against the Braves despite allowing five runs on seven hits over five-plus innings on Wednesday. |
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09-11-23 | Braves -139 v. Phillies | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves are reliable on the road. They stand at 8-2 in their last ten road decisions. The Phillies have been mediocre recently. They have lost two of their last three series and are only 4-6 in their last ten bouts. The squad has dropped three of their last four home games. Braves’ starter Charlie Morton has been dominant. The veteran has allowed either zero or one run in four of his last five starts and the Braves have won in four of his last five outings. Phillies pitcher Taijuan Walker has not been sharp recently. He issued a 4.75 ERA last month and gave up four runs in his lone outing this month. |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The architect of the Cowboys’ offense, Kellen Moore, who has moved on to take over the offensive coordinator duties with the Chargers in Los Angeles this season. Over Moore’s four years as offensive coordinator in Dallas (2019-2022), the Cowboys’ offense totaled the 2nd most yards (391 per game) and 2nd most points (27.7 per game) in the NFL. However, Dallas is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS away against quadruple avenging opponents, including 0-4 ATS in division games. New York is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home when seeking quadruple revenge, including 4-0 SUATS in division contests |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia will face the league’s toughest schedule, by measurement of each opponent’s projected season win total. By this criterion alone, teams carrying this sort of added weight have fallen short in the 6 years we’ve been charting the theory, going 47-41 SU and 40-46-2 ATS overall that season, including 10-24-1 ATS as a favorite. Remember, Philly faced the league’s softest schedule last season, and it helped land them a spot in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. Keep in mind as well that playing against the defending Super Bowl loser if they are away in Game One of the season is 15-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games, look for the Hoodie’s 12-3 outright record at home in season openers to serve as a tall task for the Eagles. |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Chargers | 36-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is coming off 3 straight winning seasons for 1st time since 1997-2003 (7 straight). However, they lost 6 of their last 7 games in '22 w/ their only win being a TD-less 11-6 win over the Jets in week 18. 1-4 in games not started by Tua last year. Last we saw the Chargers, they blew a 27-0 2nd quarter lead in Jacksonville before going down 31-30. They are the 1st team in NFL playoff history to lose a game with 5+ turnover margin. Herbert , 2nd player ever w/ 25+ TD passes in each of his 1st 3 seasons (P Manning). He has more PY (14,089) than any player in NFL history thru 1st 3 seasons. However, the Dolphins are 9-2 ATS as AFC West dogs and 8-2 ATS in season openers, and the Chargers 1-10 ATS non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, and just 1-5 ATS versus the AFC East. |
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09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cubs starter Hendricks has held his last five opponents in August to three or fewer runs and should have similar success today against the D-Backs, who aren't scoring as much in the second half of the season. Arizona's .317 on-base percentage on the road won't help it keep pace with the home team, either. Arizona rookie starter Pfaadt is unreliable, to say the least. He's put eight-plus runners on base in consecutive starts and has given up 17 long balls in 15 starts (74.2 IP). The Cubs' bats will come alive this afternoon — they score 5.2 runs per game at Wrigley Field. |
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09-10-23 | Padres v. Astros -143 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros have won three of their last four games and have scored more than 10 runs in three of their last four games. They’ve done a great job against left-handers this season and Hill has struggled on the mound, giving up 11 runs in his last three starts. He gave up six runs in his last two starts against the Astros and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Padres have lost five of their last seven road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 20 runs in their last three games. France has done a good job on the mound for the Astros, giving up five runs in his previous three starts, so expect him to keep San Diego’s offense in check. |
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09-10-23 | Mariners v. Rays -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays will be in good hands today with the veteran Eflin on the hill at the Trop. Eflin has 10 of his 13 wins this season at home and has been the team's most consistent pitcher this season. He should put up a high strikeout total on Sunday against a Mariners team that is in the top five in strikeouts per game. The Mariners have tentatively tapped Miller to start today but they may decide to push the rookie back another day as they manage the team's rotation with October approaching. I'm going to lean toward the Rays' with the best home record in the American League in the fourth and final game of this series. |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +2.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in season openers the last six years, and 1-6 ATS in games before facing division rival Los Angeles Rams. Additionally, NFL season opening favorites who win 15 or games last season are 2-10 ATS as road chalk of fewer than five points. Finally, Pittsburgh is 10-2-2 ATS as a non-division home dog log under Mike Tomlin, including 4-0-1 ATS against foes that won 14-plus game the previous season. |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama -7 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Saban’s record against former assistants is well-documented at 28-2 SU. What they don’t know is that he is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in those same games when favored by 18 or fewer points, including 4-0 SUATS at home. Add to that the fact that Bama is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at home off a home game, while Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road tilts and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus SEC opponents, and this looks like a Crimson Tide win-and cover |
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09-09-23 | Padres v. Astros -127 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to trust Cristian Javier, who’s having a poor second half of the season, but I would take the Astros because their offense has been red-hot as of late. Seth Lugo has pitched very well over the last few weeks, but the Astros hold a 177 wRC+ and 1.021 OPS against right-handed pitchers in September and will properly test the Padres righty. Only three guys from this Houston team have seen Lugo before, combining for two hits in six at-bats. On the other side, the current Padres are 5-for-19 with a pair of home runs against Cristian Javier. San Diego owns a 112 wRC+ and .766 OPS against the righties in September. |
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09-09-23 | Central Florida v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 67 h 26 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Broncos after owning the No. 2 rushing attack in the Mountain West last season under OC Dirk Koetter, BSU’s top two RB’s George Holani and Ashton Jeanty managed just 95 yards on 20 carries against Washington under new OC Bush Hamdan (a former Boise QB). Meanwhile the Boise defense, which was ranked 11th in the nation in 2022, was lit up for 568 yards by Michael Penix and his cohorts. But keep in mind that the Broncos have survived in the past. Boise is now cast into the rare role of a home dog where they are 5-3 SUATS in this role since 1999. Finally, Boise State is 21-0 outright in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one years. |
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09-09-23 | SMU v. Oklahoma -15 | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Didn't take Sooners long to shake the dust from last year's losing season, with 14-0 lead over Arkansas St in 1st 2:22. A 642-208 yard edge (38-10 first downs) in 73-0 cake walk. Ponies return 16 starters, holding La Tech to 11FDs & rushing yards, &limiting Bachmeier to 1/1, but they've allowed 31+ pts 10 of their last 14 games. Statwise, they're close to equal, but when Okies get rolling! Consider finally, that teams coming off a 60 point-plus win are 25-10 ATS as a favorite in game two, including 17-5 ATS at home. |
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09-09-23 | Mariners v. Rays -142 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have lost three of their last five games and four of their last seven road games. They haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Civale has done a good job on the mound, especially at home where he gave up nine runs in his last five starts. He gave up four runs in his last two starts against the Mariners and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Tampa Bay to cover the money line. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4.5 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 65 h 39 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Texas A&M has gone 1-5 on the scoreboard, 4-13-1 ATS overall in road openers and 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. They haven't done well coming off a big win, going 4-11-1 ATS off a 40+ point win when meeting a team better than a .400 record. Miami comes in at 17-4 SU and 14-6-1 ATS at home in a battle of undefeated teams. Miami has also done well versus the SEC when a dog against a team coming off a win, going 3-0-1 ATS. Miami has done well versus unbeatens, going 4-1 SUATS and 13-5 ATS. Finally, Miami is 13-5 SUATS as a non-conference home dog, including 5-0 SUATS the last five, and 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-09-23 | Ole Miss v. Tulane +7.5 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tulane was 11-2 ATS last season, and 7-1 ATS in game two of back-to-back home games. At home, coach Fritz is 37-18 SU and 30-16-1 ATS in his career. Ole Miss showed no mercy to Mercer, winning by 67 and racking up 667 yards, but now it’s time to hit the road, and the visitors from Oxford aren’t very good when favored by a decent number. In 2022 they were 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 or less, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-con road games. Finally, they are also 3-7 ATS off a home win of 14 or more and 2-5 SUATS in road openers. |
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09-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one should be very tight this afternoon at Wrigley. Steele has been great all season and particularly dominant at home in losing just two of his 14 decisions at Wrigley. He is also 3-0 in his last five starts and comes off a 2-0 win over the Giants in which he allowed just two hits while striking out 12 in eight shutout innings of work. Arizona's Kelly is not far behind Steele with his recent work. I expect a low-scoring battle today with a lower percentage of balls being put in play with these two pitchers hurling. I'm going with the Cubs in this one based on their ability to run the bases, play quality defense, and as the hotter of the two teams at the moment. Steele has been the more consistent of the two pitchers in recent outings and he can get the Cubs deep into this game. |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Opening week underdogs of 20 or more points who pull an upset revenge win have been known to disappear the following week, as these teams are 0-6 SU and 1-4 ATS, with only ONE of the aforementioned squads coming in as a favorite. That was Southern Miss in 1989, who returned home following its 30-26 road win as 22.5-point dogs at Florida State. The Golden Eagles laid 7 points to Mississippi State, then immediately proceeded to lose the whole game to the Bulldogs and drop out of sight. They finished the season 0-5 SUATS against non-conference foes while concluding the season with a losing record. Finally, Nebraska head coach Rhule is 29-12 ATS away in his college career, as well as 9-3 ATS as a single-digit dog. |
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09-08-23 | Illinois v. Kansas -145 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Illini have some dismal point spread trends coming in to this one going 1-7 ATS before playing Penn State, 1-6 ATS on Weekdays, and 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six regular season meetings with a Big 12 foe. Pair those facts with KU’s 5-0-1 ATS success in Kansas vs. Big Ten matchups and Illinois head coach Bret Bielema’s 4-9-1 ATS slide in road openers, including 2-8 ATS the last ten, and you have the winner. |
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09-08-23 | Orioles -114 v. Red Sox | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore is a trendy run line bet after a win (51-36 record), on the road (51-20), and as betting favorites (40-36). It should continue to hit against Houck, who has struggled with his command since returning from a facial fracture, hitting three batters in his last outing and walking five combined batters in his other two starts. The Orioles have seen him twice this season (both outings back in April), producing seven runs and 12 hits in ten combined innings. I'm betting on another high-scoring game from Baltimore (5.4 runs/game last month). Bradish has been a reliable pitcher all season, and he hasn't worn down in the dog days of summer. The right-hander posted a 2.12 ERA in August (five starts), surrendering 20 hits with 35 strikeouts in 29.0 combined innings pitched. He's won three straight starts and has been a good bet on the road and in night games in 2023. Baltimore won't need to give Bradish a lot of run support. You're getting a lot of value for a matchup between a true World Series contender and a .500 ballclub! |
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09-08-23 | Dodgers -145 v. Nationals | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington has been decent since the All-Star break but a six-game skid doesn’t necessarily bode well for their chances here. While the Dodgers have struggled with five losses in their last six games and are dealing with rotation issues after Julio Urias was placed on administrative leave earlier this week, the fact remains that they are the second-best team in the National League. Los Angeles also has a ridiculously deep lineup and bench that gives them the ability to pile up runs in support of whoever is on the mound. Sheehan has been up and down, which is to be expected for a rookie. With that said, Gore has sputtered at Nationals Park and could have problems with the Dodgers. Give the edge to the visitors as their offense carries them to the victory. |
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09-08-23 | Cardinals v. Reds -120 | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds will send rookie lefty Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.22 ERA) to the mound in the series opener. Last Saturday, Abbott kept the Reds in the game against the Cubs, allowing one run and four hits over 6 1/3 innings, striking out five and walking two. The Reds rallied in the ninth for a 2-1 win. Abbott has faced the Cardinals once in his career, allowing no runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings earlier this season. The Cardinals will throw rookie left-hander Andrew Rom (0-2, 7.24), looking for his first win in his fourth major league start. Rom will be making a homecoming of sorts, having attended high school at nearby Fort Thomas in Kentucky. Rom, who will face the Reds for the first time in his career, was charged with three runs on five hits over 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Pittsburgh last Saturday in a 7-6 loss. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lions have struggled at 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-division games on Thursdays. We realize the defending champs were 7-3 SU but 0-10 ATS in one-score games last season, but evidence has it this should not be the case tonight. Not when you consider Andy Reid’s 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division foes – with every win by double-digits. And note that the Chiefs are looking to become the third team to reach four Super Bowls in a five-year span, along with the 1990-93 Bills and the 2014-18 Patriots. |
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09-07-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -170 | 6-2 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Assad has taken very well to his role as a starter in the Cubs' rotation. In his past five starts, he has gone at least six innings in four of those starts with a high of eight innings against the Reds in his last stint. He has also allowed a total of six runs in his last five starts. Arizona will counter with Nelson, just recalled from the minor leagues. In his previous two starts before being sent down, Nelson allowed 15 hits and 12 runs combined while lasting just 3.1 innings in each start. The Cubs have been playing stellar baseball since the trade deadline, including an 18-9 record in August. The Diamondbacks, after a terrific first half, went just 12-15 in the month of August. I like the Cubs here to lean on Assad and pressure Nelson on the base paths and pick up a much-needed win in game one of this series. |
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09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves will dominate the final game of this series against the struggling Wainwright. The Cardinals' long-time ace has had a difficult year in what may very well be his final season in the big leagues. His ERA is over eight for the season and, in his last five starts, it is approaching 11. This does not bode well in a matchup against the best-hitting team in the big leagues. Wainwright's nearly two WHIP on the season will result in runners on base at all times and a one-sided Braves win. Braves' starter Fried is 3-0 in his last five starts and has an ERA of just 2.52 on the season. Fried does not need a heavy dose of run support but should get more than his share in this start. The Braves have won all three of the meetings with the Cardinals heading into this series as well. While the Cardinals are anxiously awaiting this season to end, the Braves roll on to solidify their place in the standings. |
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09-07-23 | Dodgers v. Marlins +113 | 10-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins have won six of their last eight games and have scored 23 runs in their last three games. Los Angeles’ pitching hasn’t been very good in recent games, with the team giving up at least four runs in four of their last five games. With closer Julio Urías also out due to hit arrest over the weekend, the Dodgers will have a hard time slowing down Miami’s hot bats. The Dodgers have lost four of their last five games and have scored only eight runs in their last three games. They haven’t hit the ball as well against left-handers and Garrett has done a good job on the mound for the Marlins in recent starts, giving up seven runs in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in his last three home starts and will keep Los Angeles’ offense in check. |
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09-06-23 | Orioles -125 v. Angels | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to trust the starting duo in this game, so I’m going with the Orioles because of their strong lineup and exceptional bullpen. Baltimore’s relief pitchers have recorded a 3.03 ERA and 3.67 FIP over the last ten days (29.2 IP), whereas the Angels bullpen has accounted for an ugly 8.69 ERA and 6.54 FIP across 29 innings of work in that span. The Orioles have done a good job against the southpaws so far this season. Since August 15, they’ve notched a 119 wRC+ and .200 ISO versus left-handed pitchers. On the other side, the Angels have registered a 96 wRC+ and .187 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past three weeks. |
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09-06-23 | Blue Jays -165 v. A's | 2-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winning seemed easy for Ryu (3-1, 2.48 ERA) last month, particularly over his final three starts. In all, he is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last five starts (including his most recent on Sept. 1). In three of those outings he did not allow an earned run. The Blue Jays have won all five of those games. The 36-year-old has never lost to the A's in three career starts, going 2-0 with a 5.40 ERA. The Blue Jays backed him with 10 runs of support the only previous time he's started a game in Oakland, a 10-4 win in May of 2021. Toronto has put up a total of 13 runs in its first two games in this series. The A's will send lefty JP Sears (3-11, 4.60) to the mound in the series finale. It will be the first time Sears faces the Blue Jays since making his major league debut for the New York Yankees against Toronto last April. |
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09-06-23 | Twins -120 v. Guardians | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Joe Ryan will try for his 11th win of the season as the Minnesota Twins attempt to complete a three-game series sweep of the host Cleveland Guardians this afternoon. Ryan (10-8, 4.20 ERA) is 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts against the Guardians, including 2-1 with a sparkling 0.87 ERA in three starts at Progressive Field. Cleveland (66-73), which trails Minnesota (73-66) by seven games in the American League Central with just 23 games remaining, will start rookie right-hander Gavin Williams (1-5, 3.46) in an effort to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Williams pitched one scoreless inning as an opener in a 4-2 victory over the Twins on Aug. 29, his only career appearance against Minnesota. He got out of a bases-loaded jam by getting Royce Lewis to pop out, no small accomplishment considering Lewis had hit grand slams in back-to-back games entering that contest and smashed another in a 20-6 victory in Monday's series opener. Minnesota followed Monday's blowout win with an 8-3 victory on Tuesday to clinch what many viewed as a make-or-break series for Cleveland's division-title hopes. Donovan Solano hit a three-run triple to highlight a five-run eighth inning for the Twins, who improved to 4-1 on their current six-game road trip. |
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09-04-23 | Orioles -171 v. Angels | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Grayson Rodriguez was money last Monday, and I’m expecting to see another strong performance when he takes on the Angels’ depleted lineup. The Orioles’ bullpen has done a great job over the last ten days, notching a 2.73 ERA and 2.80 FIP through 26.1 innings. I don’t trust the Angels’ pitching staff to keep the O’s in check. Over the last ten days, the Orioles’ bats have registered a 127 wRC+ against the righties (239 plate appearances) and an 84 wRC+ versus the southpaws. The Angels have four lefties in their bullpen, but just one of those four guys holds an ERA south of 5.74. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 36 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Clemson comes into this one with a 1-7 ATS mark as a road favorite in season openers, and a 3-7 ATS log in its last ten games on this field. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul the Tigers’ stagnant offense. Duke comes in 3-1 SUATS in its last four lined home-openers as well as 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season openers. More importantly, Duke was 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in Mike Elko’s debut last season. Finally, College football home dogs in season openers who return 17 or more starters are 43-16-1 ATS since 1990 if they won three or more games the previous season, including 12-2 ATS if they are a dog of more than 12 points. |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colorado Rockies have dropped four consecutive series and eight out of their last ten games. This is a team that no longer has Grichuk or Cron and is struggling to score runs, especially on the road. The Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies this season, winning eight of the ten meetings. Peter Lambert issued a poor 5.23 ERA in August. D-Backs’ pitcher Merill Kelly has silenced the Rockies this season, limiting them to only three runs in 12 innings. He is sporting a 2.96 ERA at home this season. Arizona is 7-3 in their last ten home decisions and I expect another home win. |
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09-04-23 | Giants v. Cubs -132 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Webb has been a bad bet on the road this season and has been putting too many runners on base lately. In his last five starts, he's allowed 35 hits and 14 runs (13 earned) in 31.2 innings. He lost his last two starts and gave up four runs and nine hits three starts ago. I don't trust him against the red-hot Cubs, who are scoring 5.7 runs per game since the All-Star break. Steele has been steady and consistent, especially under the sun. He's 8-2 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 day games. He will earn his 12th victory of the year at home against a Giants club that's hitting .220 with a .295 OBP in the second half of the season, averaging a paltry 3.7 runs per game. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 93 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games away from the Bayou when forced to lay points. Meanwhile, the Seminoles comes back with no less than 18 starters back from last year’s 10-win squad which improved on offense by 8 points and 104 yards per game, while the defense allowed 6 points less and 58 yards less per contest. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 SUATS when facing an LSU squad that won six or more games the previous season. Finally, Florida State is 9-0-2 in 11 previous contests in Orlando. |
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09-03-23 | Rays -129 v. Guardians | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians struggle to score against everyone, so don't expect them to light up the scoreboard in this one. Meanwhile, Cleveland is trusting Xzavion Curry against the Rays again, at least to begin the game. Considering that he gave up five runs last time, that doesn't bode well. The last time he was on the mound was his worst outing of the year, ending with six runs surrendered over 2.0 innings. As for Tampa Bay, their offense has been on fire lately and will probably pounce on this version of Curry. Expect domination from the Rays to close the series. |
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09-03-23 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -138 | 8-5 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Zac Gallen getting the start in Chase Field, always expect Arizona to win. Only twice have the Diamondbacks lost his home starts, and in one of them, the bullpen gave up five runs late to lose it. Implosions like that are an anomaly, but Gallen stifling the opposing lineup is not. So, it'll be on Arizona to give him run support if they want to take this game. Considering that they scored four against Flaherty the first time they faced him and three the second time, the Diamondbacks should race out to a lead in this one. By avoiding Baltimore's best bullpen arms, they'll probably plate a few more too. Don't be surprised if the Snakes win by multiple runs. |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU comes into this one 8-2 ATS in their last ten games versus MWC foes, and also closed the season on a 7-0 ATS run, thanks largely to a defense that improved 55 YPG. The Spartans were on the opposite side ATS finishing up 0-7 ATS their final seven games and it continued in a 56-28 loss to USC in Saturday night’s season opener. Former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro threw 3 TD passes to WR Nick Nash against the Trojans and ran for an additional 52 yards on the ground. However, with SJSU just 1-26 SU in their last twenty-seven lined games against Pac-12 opponents. To close it all out, consider that playing on any CFB away team as either a favorite or dog of fewer than 20 points in its season opener if they won 8 or more games last season and are facing an opponent coming off a loss of 8 or more points as a dog is 11-0 ATS since 1990. |
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09-03-23 | Phillies v. Brewers +100 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers were cooled off by the Cubs in the final two games of that series but did have a nine-game winning streak to extend their lead in the NL Central prior to that. They now have Wade Miley taking the hill against the Phillies in the series finale on Sunday. Miley is 4-1 at home this season and also has a solid 3.46 ERA in his last five starts as well. The Phillies will send Suarez to the hill for the series finale and will likely have to watch his pitch count in his first start off of IL. Suarez is just 2-6 overall on the season and the Phillies have lost three of his last five starts this season overall. The Brewers have won each of Miley's last two starts and will close out this series with another win. |
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09-02-23 | Coastal Carolina v. UCLA -14.5 | 13-27 | Loss | -108 | 72 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Coast-to-Coast matchup features a Coastal team that doesn't do well in games where they are a big underdog, going 4-8 ATS when taking double digits. UCLA comes in off a winning season but lost it's bowl game. Keeping that in mind playing on any college football team in its season-opening game if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season is a money making 50-33-1 ATS in games since 1990 – a rock-solid 60% winning proposition. In addition, when these same teams open the season at home and have won 15 or more of their previous 28 home games they are a winning 29-10-1 ATS, including 16-3-1 ATS since 2007. |
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09-02-23 | Orioles -123 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cecconi has pitched decently in his limited action at the big league level and has surrendered only two extra-base hits in his three outings at Chase Field. Opposing hitters have a .163/.178/.256 slash line against him in those performances but it’s safe to say that the Orioles are a team that can do some damage. Bradish has pitched well and the Orioles have won his last five starts entering this game. The Orioles are a dangerous offensive team, especially on the road, and they should be able to get to the young Cecconi, who had his struggles in Triple-A before being called up. Back the Orioles and Bradish here as they earn the road victory in this contest. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina -135 v. South Carolina | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NC Coach Mack is 26-4 SU in season openers, (18-1 in the last 19) and he brings back 18 starters hungry for revenge and looking to compete with pre-season favorites Florida State and Clemson. South Carolina, hasn’t been very successful versus ACC teams lately, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last six. When they play in neutral territory, they are only 1-3 SUATS. Finally, UNC IS 5-0 as a favorite of fewer than four points against SEC foes. |
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09-02-23 | Mariners -130 v. Mets | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have lost seven of their last 10 games and five of their last eight home games and have scored only 12 runs in their last four home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they don’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Castillo has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four starts. He gave up five runs in his last two starts against the Mets, and with Seattle having the second-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. The Mariners have won eight of their last 10 games and five of their last six road games and have scored 30 runs in their last five games. Mets starter, Carrasco has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 18 runs in his last five starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two starts against the Mariners, and with New York’s bullpen struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. |
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09-02-23 | Cubs -111 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are looking good, winning five of their last six series after a series victory against one of the hottest squads in baseball, the Brewers, and a win in game one of Friday's DH. The Reds are stumbling in recent games, losing two straight series and six of their last ten games. Cubs’ starter Javier Assad has been outstanding recently. The right-hander has conceded two or fewer runs in five consecutive outings and reported a dazzling 2.48 ERA in August. Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott has regressed after a great start to his rookie year, allowing 20 runs in his last 27.1 innings. The Cubs are a reliable play with Assad on the mound. They have won in each of Assad’s last five outings. |
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09-02-23 | South Florida v. Western Kentucky -11.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 66 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units WKU has brought in a pair of WRs from Auburn and Tennessee to join wideout Malachi Corley (led college football in yards after catch with 975 and missed tackles forced with 40), so look for W. Kentucky to add to a 5-1-1 ATS record in lined openers. South Florida has not faired well in each of the last three meetings, going 0-3 ATS against Western. Additionally, they are 4-29 overall out-right their L33 contests. The Bulls are also on a 1-16 straight-up run which is why first-year head coach Alex Golesh is now in Tampa. |
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09-02-23 | Northern Illinois +9 v. Boston College | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 62 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NIU is 30th in returning players and they’ve hung with BC in two losses, both by three points. In 2021 the Huskies won nine, last season they won just three times. We like the 2021 MAC champs to ride a healthy QB in Rocky Lombardi to connect with WR Treyvon Rudolph, more than three times, to keep this one respectable. Take the points. |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii +3.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hawaii returns to the Island with a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS mark in their last ten lined home openers, including 6-1 ATS when taking points. Standford has a new HC and new CFB head coaches are 7-18-2 ATS in Game One with a team that won three or fewer games the previous season. Adding to HC Taylor’s issues is Stanford’s horrible 1-8 SUATS mark in its last nine road games. To finish it off, consider that Hawaii is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home dog in Pac-12 games since 2010. |
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09-01-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -151 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ll see a couple of top-notch lefties on the mound, and these two lineups have done a good job against the southpaws in the last couple of weeks (Braves 153 wRC+ and .943 OPS; Dodgers 110 wRC+ and .767 OPS). Furthermore, both teams have plenty of dangerous arms in their bullpens. The Braves’ relievers have amassed a 3.25 ERA and 3.08 FIP in the last ten days and 27.2 innings of work, while the Dodgers’ bullpen has thrown 40.2 frames in that span while tallying a 2.66 ERA and 3.86 FIP. |
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09-01-23 | Angels -133 v. A's | 2-9 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team is playing well, but the Angels have the only above-average group in this game with their offense. That group is 11th in runs per game, while Oakland is 30th. Los Angeles also hasn't struggled against Oakland at all this year, with a +27 run differential after seven games. Using their lineup, the Angels will cruise to another win against the A's today. They've already crushed JP Sears once (six runs in 4.1 innings), and that wasn't at the Oakland Coliseum where Sears has pitched worse. Meanwhile, Patrick Sandoval made light work of the A's lineup twice, giving up only four total runs in two starts. The Angels will probably race out to a healthy lead and never look back. |
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09-01-23 | Twins v. Rangers -148 | 5-1 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This weekend's series opens with a pair of right-handers facing each other for the second time in less than a week. Texas' Max Scherzer (12-5, 3.71 ERA) is set to square off against Minnesota's Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.33). Scherzer received a no-decision last Saturday against the Twins after allowing two runs with 10 strikeouts over seven innings. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA in his first five starts covering 30 2/3 innings since being acquired from the New York Mets. He is 9-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 17 career starts versus Minnesota. |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -4.5 | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida edged the Utes, 29-26, as a 5.5-point home dog in last year’s season opener, however keep in mind that Utah HC Whittingham is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss. He’s also 15-0 outright in home openers against non-conference opponents with an average winning score of 38-14. Florida’s Napier does bring a 17-7 ATS dog log into the fray, including 5-1 last season, but Utah looks to be so loaded. |
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08-31-23 | Marlins v. Nationals +145 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We saw these teams meet last weekend in South Beach with the Nationals taking two of three. That included a win Friday night with this pitching matchup as Adon spun six scoreless frames. Miami is going to be dealing with traveling after Hurricane Idalia had hit Florida early Wednesday so it will remain to be seen how that works out for them. Washington has been strong since the All-Star break, entering today 26-18 in the second half of the season. Miami saw Jorge Soler leave Tuesday’s game early with hip tightness, which could impede their top slugging option. The Nationals have played solid baseball and have made good teams struggle against them of late. Miami has been down in the second half of the season and has gone 28-36 on the road this year. Give the edge to the Nationals as they take the opening game of this series. |
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08-29-23 | Padres -144 v. Cardinals | 5-6 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres have experienced setback after setback to their pitching staff, with Yu Darvish's relegation to the 15-day injured list the latest blow. However, right-hander Seth Lugo (5-6, 3.70 ERA) remains one of the bright spots. He will face the host St. Louis Cardinals tonight in the middle game of a three-game series. The Padres won the opener 4-1 on Monday to snap a three-game losing streak. Lugo has thrown a combined 12 scoreless innings over his past two starts, against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins. He has allowed just eight hits and four walks while striking out 13, doing his best to keep San Diego's dwindling playoff hopes alive. Lugo is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in 10 career appearances against St. Louis, including two starts. The Cardinals have lost 10 of their past 12 games. They have dropped their past four games by the combined scored of 26-4. |
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08-29-23 | Angels v. Phillies -163 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Angels are out of postseason contention and are a defeated team. They have now dropped five of their last seven series. The Phillies are looking good, winning seven of their last ten decisions after sweeping the Cardinals this past weekend and a 6-4 victory on Monday. Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson is going to struggle against this hot lineup. The veteran has squandered 13 runs in his last 13.1 innings pitched. Anderson has issued a weak 4.66 career ERA in 29 innings against the Phillies. I expect Michael Lorenzen to rebound in this one. The righty has hit a bump in his last two starts but has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last eight outings. |
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08-28-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kyle Muller will meet Seattle for the second time this season, and the Mariners tortured him for six earned runs on eight hits and two walks across five innings on May 22. I don’t trust the A’s to keep the Mariners lineup in check, so give me Seattle -1.5. Seattle’s bullpen has gone 3-1 with four saves over the last ten days (30 IP), tallying a 3.90 ERA and 2.74 FIP, while the Mariners lineup has recorded a 221 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers (79 plate appearances) and 163 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers (275 PA). The M’s will have to slow down eventually, but I don’t see that happening in this series. |
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08-28-23 | Guardians v. Twins -159 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians are looking to make a push in the division but the Twins are having a great season and look to step up and control this game from the first inning. The Twins should constantly drive in runs with Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, and the rest of the lineup making contact and powering the ball to easily plate baserunners. The Twins should limit the Guardians' lineup, which averages only 4.00 runs per game, with Kenta Maeda pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with the lead. The Twins should win the game with a strong performance at home. |
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08-28-23 | Angels v. Phillies -141 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Lucas Giolito (7-10, 4.32 ERA) will be tasked with slowing down Turner and the rest of the Philadelphia offense today when he makes his 27th start of the season. Five of Giolito's 26 starts have come with the Angels after he was traded from the Chicago White Sox on July 26. So far, his time in Los Angeles has not been kind to him. Giolito is 1-4 with a 6.67 ERA with the Angels after giving up four runs (one earned) on five hits in six innings against the Cincinnati Reds last Tuesday. He walked two and struck out nine en route to his second consecutive loss. Fellow right-hander Taijuan Walker (13-5, 4.02) will oppose Giolito as he squares off against an Angels team that has seemingly had nothing go right over the past two weeks. In addition to seeing superstar center fielder Mike Trout land back on the injured list due to a left hamate fracture and having to shut down two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the rest of the season, Los Angeles has lost eight of its last 12 games. |
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08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The young and feisty Texans should be the more hungry team on Sunday night. The veteran Saints team has little to prove on Sunday night and even less reason to play some of their key veterans in a meaningless exhibition game. Houston, meanwhile, is still sorting out the quarterback position and may be more inclined to get another look at their full offensive line playing together behind Stroud. In addition, the younger Texans will have far more interesting choices to make at several positions and may want to take extended looks at several players trying to earn their way onto the 53-man roster. With that in mind, expect the Texans to be more aggressive, physical, and hungry on Sunday night. I think youth will be served in this game. |