Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-10-22 | Sabres v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 7-2-1 in Sabres last 10 games as an underdog, 10-4-1 in Sabres last 15 Sunday games, and 14-6-3 in Sabres last 23 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. While the Over is 8-1 in Lightning last 9 vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 5-1 in Lightning last 6 overall, and 5-1 in Lightning last 6 games as a favorite. |
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04-10-22 | Astros -106 v. Angels | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Astros sat Alex Bregman last night and Yuli Gurriel was placed on the paternity list, and they still only lost 2-0. All the Angels top bullpen arms pitched while all the Astros top bullpen arms were able to rest as well. Bregman should be back in the lineup today, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Angels rest one of their top guys as well. Astros are 15-7 against the Angels since the start of last season and they were the fourth best team in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Jose Suarez actually faced the Astros twice last season and pitched well both times, however I think if the Astros keep it close they will win it in the bullpens. |
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04-10-22 | Brewers -120 v. Cubs | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are giving a lot of their regulars the day off, including Wilson Contreras, Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom. Marcus Stroman is making his debut, and I think he will be very good for the Cubs this season, however the Brewers should get a breath of fresh air avoiding a lefty today. The Brewers were the second best team in the league on the road last season, and they were 8-2 at Wrigley Field. Take the value on the Brewers on the road to avoid the sweep. |
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04-10-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -140 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think the White Sox are a little overvalued on the road here, they were an under .500 team on the road last season at just 40-41. The Tigers were 42-39 at home last season. Michael Kopech has elite stuff but he has yet to be stretched out as a Major League starter and he has command issues. Tarik Skubal pitched well in his first two starts against the lefty crushing White Sox last season, and he actually doesn’t have a ton of trouble with righties like we would expect a lefty to have. Tim Anderson is back in the lineup for the White Sox but Yasmani Grandal is out. The Tigers just swapped Victor Reyes for Akil Baddoo which is an improvement after watching his ABs yesterday. Take the value on the Tigers at home. |
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04-09-22 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 8-2-1 in Coyotes last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game, 9-3-5 in Coyotes last 17 vs. Pacific, and 5-2-2 in Coyotes last 9 following a loss of 3 or more goals. While the Over is 6-2 in Golden Knights last 8 games as a home favorite, 11-4 in Golden Knights last 15 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game, and 19-7-1 in Golden Knights last 27 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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04-09-22 | Sharks v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 5-1 in Sharks last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. While the Over is 7-1-1 in Canucks last 9 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game, 6-1 in Canucks last 7 vs. Pacific, 9-2 in Canucks last 11 games as a home favorite, and 9-2-1 in Canucks last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. |
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04-09-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +6.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs head back to San Antonio for their final home game of the season after a 127-121 loss at Minnesota on Thursday that snapped their five-game road winning streak. Despite the loss, San Antonio (34-46) is still in the running for the ninth spot and a home game in the play-in tourney, but the Spurs will have to win their final two games and have New Orleans lose both of its final two. The Spurs own the tiebreaker with the Pelicans via a 3-1 edge in head-to-head play. Consider that the Warriors are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. |
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04-09-22 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Under is 3-1-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 home games and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. |
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04-09-22 | Flames v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 5-1 in Flames last 6 Saturday games, 16-6-4 in Flames last 26 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 8-3-2 in Flames last 13 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. While the Over is 2-0-2 in Kraken last 4 Saturday games and 5-2 in Kraken last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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04-09-22 | Mets -137 v. Nationals | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets won the first two games of this series handily and they did it mostly off the Nats bullpen. The Nats bullpen should continue to be featured here heavily as Joan Adon will be making just his second career start for the Nats. Chris Bassitt is coming off a career year and will be making his Mets debut. Since the trade deadline last season, the Mets have won 10 of the last 13 games between these teams. The Mets also used their top bullpen guys in Game 1 so they should all be available for this game. Francisco Lindor was hit in the face by a pitch yesterday and the Mets have been frustrated all series about the number of HBPs. I think they come out focused today looking to start 3-0. |
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04-09-22 | Red Sox +140 v. Yankees | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Honestly, I don’t trust Nick Pivetta much and I don’t trust the Red Sox bullpen. However, Pivetta did pitch well in his most recent start against the Yankees last season and the Yankees bullpen isn’t is too much of a better place. Luis Severino is making just his fourth start since 2019 and he has pitched just 18 innings since then. He also seriously struggled in Spring Training walking a lot of batters while striking out fewer than normal. These teams are about as evenly matched as two teams get and either team could win any game when they get together. Take the value in the Red Sox. |
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04-09-22 | Marlins v. Giants -142 | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm huge Carlos Rodon guy as a White Sox fan. If he's right, he's awesome. Was a Cy Young contender for a while last year. The problem is that he's often injured. He is healthy now with the Giants and I don't think the slap-hitting Marlins will touch him. Cheap price. |
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04-09-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -154 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mitch Keller is getting the start for the Pirates and he has looked much better this season, even touching 100mph at times. However, the Pirates don’t have a great bullpen behind him, and he shouldn’t go more than 5 innings. Miles MIkolas is coming off a shortened season because of injuries but he did pitch solid in his only two starts against the Pirates last season. The Cardinals were able to avoid their top bullpen arms with their beatdown of Pittsburgh in Game 1, and they had a day off anyway for their guys to rest. I like the Cards at home to win again, especially at this value. |
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04-09-22 | Devils v. Stars OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 21-6-1 in Devils last 28 road games, 19-6-1 in Devils last 26 games as a road underdog, 20-7-3 in Devils last 30 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game, and 27-11-2 in Devils last 40 games as an underdog. While the Over is 5-2-1 in Stars last 8 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game and 13-6-1 in Stars last 20 home games. |
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04-09-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +122 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think Dylan Cease is going to win a Cy Young someday, his stuff is honestly that good. However, he is still young, and he shouldn’t go deep in the game in his first start of the season. The White Sox also used all their top pitchers yesterday trying to pick up the win, including a 33-pitch outing from Liam Hendriks and 1.2 IP from Kendall Graveman, so even if they do pitch they shouldn’t be as effective. The White Sox have a ton of depth in their bullpen but they were also under .500 on the road last season at 40-41. The Tigers were over ,500 at home at 42-39 and they get their top righty on the mound in Casey Mize. Tim Anderson is still out and Yoan Moncada is on the IL. Casey Mize faced the White Sox three times last season pitching two quality starts, and he should have success against a righty heavy lineup. Take the value in the Tigers at home. |
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04-09-22 | Pacers +14.5 v. 76ers | 120-133 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In Tuesday's matchup with the Sixers, Malcolm Brogdon sat (rest) and Goga Bitadze was sidelined with a foot injury. Chris Duarte last played on March 15, shut down for the season due to a toe injury. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, additions in a February trade from the Sacramento Kings for Domantas Sabonis, have emerged as two of Indiana's primary offensive weapons at 17.4 and 18.3 points, respectively, per game. Haliburton scored 21 and Hield had 25 points in Tuesday's loss to the Sixers. Consider that the Pacers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. |
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04-08-22 | Suns v. Jazz -130 | 111-105 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The NBA-leading Suns, who have the most wins in franchise history, already have clinched the top seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs, so small victories in a harmless loss can be worthwhile. Cameron Payne was the only starter in double figures for the Suns, with 13 points. Ish Wainright scored a career-best 20, Bismack Biyombo contributed 14 points and 12 rebounds, and Aaron Holiday scored 16. Consider the Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. |
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04-08-22 | Hawks v. Heat +1.5 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Miami Heat can clinch the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference on tonight when they host the Atlanta Hawks. Miami (52-28) enters its 2021-22 regular-season home finale fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season in a 144-115 rout of the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday. Highlighting the blowout win -- the Heat's fifth straight victory -- was Tyler Herro scoring a career-high 35 points off the bench. Herro paced four Miami scorers who had at least 21 points, a quartet that also comprised Jimmy Butler with 27, Bam Adebayo with 22 and Duncan Robinson with 21 off the bench (all on 3-pointers). In addition, the Hawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. |
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04-08-22 | Cavs v. Nets -7 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets entered Thursday with a 1 1/2-game lead over the Hornets, who hosted the Orlando Magic - the same team that beat the Cavaliers on Tuesday as Cleveland continued to falter without Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers are 6-10 since Allen fractured his finger in a 104-96 win over the Toronto Raptors on March 6. Mobley has missed the past five games with an ankle injury, and Cleveland's only win during that stretch was Saturday's 119-101 victory at New York. The Cavs lost 120-115 in Orlando on Tuesday when they allowed 16 3-pointers and the Magic to shoot 50.5 percent from the field. Consider that the Cavaliers are 19-51-2 ATS in their last 72 games following a ATS loss. |
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04-08-22 | Knicks +1.5 v. Wizards | 114-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington moved to as many as seven games over .500 (at 10-3 on Nov. 15) before enduring a gradual descent. The Wizards have won back-to-back games just three times since Jan. 1 and fell under the break-even mark for good with a 116-87 loss to the Boston Celtics on Jan. 23. The loss Wednesday to the Hawks -- who are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference -- was the 24th in the past 36 games for the Wizards, who are using the final week of the season to experiment with a tall lineup. Consider that the Knicks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. |
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04-08-22 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -155 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Weirdly enough, the Blue Jays have actually lost 10 straight games on Opening Day. However, I think that streak ends here. Usually, I don’t play teams just because they’re at home, but this is a different home game. This will be the first actual Toronto Opening Day since 2019 and you know that city is fired up about their team. Blue Jays also swept the Rangers when they played in Toronto last season. Jose Berrios didn’t allow a hit in his first start last season and he pitched a quality start when he faced them last June. Berrios went on a ridiculous run pitching 7 straight quality starts to end the season as well. Rangers haven’t been much better on Opening Day, losing 6 of their last 8 games. They signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in the offseason, but they don’t have much depth other than that. Some might think getting away from Coors Field will pay immediate dividends, but Gray was actually worse on the road at 3-7 5.22 ERA last season. His career ERA is also slightly worse on the road. Take the Blue Jays at home. |
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04-08-22 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -172 | 2-1 | Loss | -172 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes have continued down opposite paths since meeting in the season opener. The teams are far apart in the Metropolitan Division standings heading into their Friday night matchup in Raleigh, N.C. The Hurricanes sit atop the division standings as they gear up for another postseason run, while the Islanders are peeking ahead to next season. New York and Carolina met on Oct. 14 in Raleigh, and the Hurricanes won 6-3 behind two goals and an assist from Andrei Svechnikov. The clubs haven't faced off since. Carolina (46-17-8, 100 points) remained hot after the season-opening victory, winning its first nine games. The Hurricanes haven't slowed much, owning the top spot in the division standings for most of the season and officially clinching a playoff berth with a 5-3 home win against the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday night. Consider that the Islanders are 0-9 in the last 9 meetings. |
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04-08-22 | Marlins v. Giants -135 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giants won 107 games last season including going 54-27 at home. Logan Webb is getting his first Opening Day start and he was 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA last season. He was also 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home. Webb faced the Marlins in April last season and pitched 7 innings without allowing a run. The Marlins were just 25-56 on the road last season. Sandy Alcantara was very good last season posting a 3.19 ERA, although he somehow went 9-15. He also faced the Giants twice in April last season not pitching particularly well in either game. The Giants had the best record in the league last season yet they are just -140 at home to open the season against a team that didn’t make the playoffs. Take the Giants to win on Opening Day. |
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04-08-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday game. Colorado was an absolute ATM on the runline at home last year, so I'm going to keep playing the Rockies (+110 here) as such until they prove to me that 2022 will be different. It will be Kris Bryant's regular-season debut for the Rox. It's Walker Buehler on the mound for LA, and he's my Cy Young pick but had a 4.86 ERA in three Coors Field starts in 2021. I honestly don't care if Colorado wins the game, just lose by one. |
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04-08-22 | Orioles v. Rays -178 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays went 18-1 against the Orioles last season. Rays were also 53-30 at home last season while the Os were 25-56 on the road. The Orioles actually hit lefties decently well last season. However, Shane McClanahan faced the Orioles 4 times last season, all in July or later. He pitched at least 5 innings allowing 3 runs or fewer in all 4 of those starts. The Rays tend to struggle against lefties, however they faced John Means 4 times last season and his best outing was a five inning, 1 ER performance that they still lost. I don’t think either pitcher will go very deep into the game, and the Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season. As long as this stays under -200, take the Rays on their Opening Day. |
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04-08-22 | A's v. Phillies -170 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Athletics lineup is bad with a capital B. I think the public has caught on to the Athletics being bad, but I don’t think they realize how bad they will be. Frankie Montas could pitch well but the As don’t really have any options after that besides Lou Trivino and AJ Puk. Aaron Nola has been very hit or miss the last couple seasons, but when he has had trouble, it has been with the home run. Well, there aren’t any home run hitters in this Athletics lineup anymore. Seth Brown, maybe, but that’s it. The Phillies added Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to an already potent lineup, and they added bullpen arms in Brad Hand and Corey Knebel as well. They were also 47-34 at home last season, take the Phillies at home as long as they’re under -200. |
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04-08-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox are without All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson and third baseman Yoan Moncada today. Moncada isn't that big of a deal (out a few weeks injured) but Anderson (two-game suspension) is because he's the key to that offense. The Pale Hose were basically a .500 team last year without Anderson and 23 games over .500 when in there. Chicago does crush lefties and the Tigers are starting southpaw and new acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez, but, again, Anderson is a big part of that. The Tigers look pretty darn good on paper offensively, especially after landing Austin Meadows in trade earlier this week from Tampa Bay. Chicago pitcher Lucas Giolito was 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA last year against the Tigers and their lineup is way better in 2022. |
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04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 33 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm not about to predict an Arizona win, but I'll be taking home teams at +1.5 on the runline often this season and we pay only -115 here. That strategy has worked absolute wonders in hockey, and batting last in MLB is even a bigger advantage than having the last line change in the NHL. San Diego's lineup simply isn't the same without Fernando Tatis -- and SD struggled against lefties in 2021 even with Tatis in there. Friars starting pitcher Yu Darvish was horrible on the road last year (2-7, 5.54 ERA). Snakes southpaw starter Madison Bumgarner isn't what he used to be but still more than capable of an excellent outing. |
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04-07-22 | Astros +115 v. Angels | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 33 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels were just 17th in the league at hitting lefties last season although their lineup is looking much healthier. The Astros were also 13-6 against the Angels last season. Framber Valdez is coming off a long playoff run where he played a big role for the Astros. However, he didn’t debut last season until the end of May so the long season shouldn’t affect him. Valdez pitched 6 quality starts in his first 7 games last season and he faced the Angels twice. He allowed 4 ER in 5 IP in his first start against them, then dominated in his second start now allowing a run in 7 IP. Shohei Ohtani is coming off an MVP season, but it did take him a little while to get settled in last year. He faced the Astros twice and also had one very good start and one very bad start. He has actually never beaten the Astros, he is 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA against them in five starts. The Astros lost Carlos Correa, but they still went to the World Series last season and return everyone else. Take the Astros as underdogs. |
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04-07-22 | Predators v. Senators +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We will keep hammering our home puckline dogs, getting the Sens +1.5 Thursday at a reasonable price of -150. They did lose in Nashville 4-1 a little over a week ago, but Ottawa has won three in a row since and generally doesn't lose by more than one at home if it doesn't win outright -- at least in recent weeks. The Preds may be in letdown mode off Tuesday's home upset of Minnesota and also looking ahead to a home game against the high-flying Panthers on Saturday. Nashville has dropped its past three away. |
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04-07-22 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets -124 | 4-1 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he Blue Jackets won 4-2 in Philadelphia on Tuesday to snap a seven-game losing streak, and Columbus is a much better team at home. The Jackets still have outside playoff hopes, while Philly is playing out the string and has all of nine road wins. The Flyers are 30th in the NHL at just 2.57 goals per game and the power play is last at 12.8 percent. Columbus has won 14 of its past 17 as a favorite. |
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04-07-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -185 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Our first MLB pick of the season! Think I will be fading the Pirates about 100 times this season. They are going to be terrible and may trade their best player, Bryan Reynolds, by Opening Day. One of the NL Rookie of the Year favorites is 6-foot-7 Bucs shortstop Oneil Cruz, but the team is starting him in the minors for service time reasons. It will be the final Opening Day for Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright and catcher and future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina (and presumably for newly signed Albert Pujols as well). Wainwright had a 2.74 ERA at home last season and was 4-0 with a 0.30 ERA in four starts against the Pirates. JT Brubaker is scheduled on the mound for Pittsburgh. He was 5-13 with a 5.36 ERA last year. |
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04-07-22 | Brewers v. Cubs +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, I have to bet the first game of the season, don't I? Although this is in some jeopardy weather-wise, like many across the majors on Opening Day (two already postponed). It's reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound for the Brewers, but the winds blowing out fierce might actually be in Chicago's favor. I'm still not overly impressed with that Milwaukee lineup and the Cubs' should be better with the likes of Nick Madrigal and my pick for NL Rookie of the Year, Seiya Suzuki. Clint Frazier could be a sneaky pick for NL Comeback Player of the Year. Cubbies starter Kyle Hendricks usually pitches better at Wrigley. Getting Chicago even money on the runline is worth it. This will be our full-time introduction to the universal DH. |
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04-06-22 | Suns v. Clippers -138 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is meaningless because the Suns and Clippers are locked into their playoff seeding, but I will be stunned if Phoenix plays any key guys in the second of a back-to-back and having set the franchise record for wins in Tuesday's victory over the Lakers. There's simply nothing else to accomplish in the regular season. |
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04-06-22 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -165 | 5-1 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vancouver has lost three straight and nine of 12 and is really banged up. Brock Boeser (19 goals, 19 assists) is for sure out Wednesday and Quinn Hughes (5G, 48A) is in doubt. Vegas prevailed 3-2 in OT at Vancouver on Sunday and has won five in a row. No. 1 goaltender Robin Lehner returned Sunday from a long injury absence and looked pretty good. The Knights also have won five in a row at home |
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04-06-22 | Flames v. Ducks +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Anaheim is in a free-fall, but Calgary has lost three of four and that win was by a goal at the Kings on Monday (which we won on the puckline). With the Flames playing again Thursday in San Jose, I believe there's a good chance it's backup Dan Vladar in net here. Again, I don't think the Ducks have much of a chance to win, but getting them -120 against taking Calgary -260 on the road is the smart wager. Anaheim is 20-17 ATS at home. |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies are on an insane heater right now. They have won seven straight, going 6-1 ATS during that stretch. They rested just about all of their key players in their last game against the Suns, and still won by eight points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have lost six of their last seven games and went 0-7 ATS during that stretch. I like the Grizzlies to keep this close, if not win outright. |
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04-05-22 | Wild v. Predators +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wild are playing great hockey, but this is their third straight very tough opponent on the road since Saturday. The Preds are well-rested having been off since Friday and frankly need this more in the Western Conference playoff chase. This is a big price and I might play it with something TBA off-site (will wait on some injuries/goaltending choices to decide which), but I have a hard time seeing Nashville lose by more than a goal at home, where it has won six of seven. The Predators have won nine of their last 10 games vs. the Wild. Norris Trophy candidate Roman Josi has a whopping eight points in the two wins this season for Nashville. We are going to have to get used to expensive +1.5 pucklines for the playoffs. |
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04-05-22 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers -159 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I faded the Leafs in Tampa on Monday night unfortunately, and Toronto was incredibly impressive in a 6-2 victory behind an Auston Matthews hat trick. If the Leafs can pull off the Tampa/Sunrise double in a back-to-back, well kudos because it's incredibly rare for any team to complete the Florida Sweep at all -- much less in 24 hours. Plus, it's rookie Eric Kallgren in net tonight for Toronto, and he has allowed at least three goals in four straight outings. I usually go Under 7 goals, which is the total here, but I simply can't do it this time. I won't be going Over, though, either. |
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04-05-22 | Hurricanes v. Sabres +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the books are going to keep giving us great Sabres puckline prices (-122 here), I'm going to continue cashing. While I didn't play them Sunday vs. Florida in a two-goal loss, Buffalo had at least one point in the eight previous games, and all we need is a point to guarantee a puckline victory. At home this season, Buffalo is a stellar 22-14 ATS. Carolina is slightly under .500 ATS on the road. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -190 | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit Tournament Game of the Year Jayhawks' focus on shot quality more than volume. They're making 40.6 percent of their 3-pointers in the tournament, and on Saturday they matched Villanova's 13 treys while attempting seven fewer (24 to Villanova's 31). The Tar Heels are shooting 36 percent on 3-pointers. Consider that the Jayhawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. |
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04-04-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Solid price at -122 on the puckline for Columbus, which is four games over .500 at home but has lost six in a row overall (thus the good price). The SportsLine Projection Model has the Jackets winning outright. Not sure I agree with that. The Bruins might take this one for granted as they beat visiting Columbus 5-2 on Saturday and play again Tuesday. Top Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski (42 points) will return from injury tonight and that's big. Coach Brad Larsen is back from COVID protocols apparently. It's Linus Ullmark in net for Boston and he's a bit of a step down from Jeremy Swayman. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -4 | 81-77 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Duke and Carolina take the court in the Superdome tonight following the first national semifinal between Villanova and Kansas. This is the first time the rivals have met in the Final Four. It's the 258th game between the college basketball behemoths. Krzyzewski has five national titles on his resume. To get a sixth, the Blue Devils need to solve what ailed them in the 13-point home loss on March 5. However, consider that the Tar Heels are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games as an underdog. |
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04-02-22 | Wild +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Carolina is excellent, but we are getting a decent day-before price on the Wild puckline (-160 as of now that probably only goes up), and Minnesota is quite good itself. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (26 points) remains out for the Canes. Should be Marc-Andre Fleury in net for Minnesota, and he has been energized by the trade from Chicago, going 2-0 with only three goals allowed in a Wild uniform. |
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04-02-22 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Going to jump this one early as we get the Flyers at -110 on the puckline. The Leafs are of course the much better team but also starting Jack Campbell in net -- he has been out since March 8 due to injury and had been horrible in five straight outings before being shut down. A couple of other regulars are out injured. The Flyers have lost three straight but those were all away. Their past two home games: Upsets of the Islanders and Predators. Philly can at worst stay within a goal Saturday. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas -4 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Wildcats will be missing a key component when the squads battle on Saturday in New Orleans for a spot in the national championship game. Villanova standout Justin Moore tore his right Achilles in the final minute of the Wildcats' 50-44 win over Houston in the Elite Eight on March 26. Moore underwent surgery, and the Wildcats are dissecting how to best fill his minutes and responsibilities. Backup Caleb Daniels is expected to slide into the starting lineup for the second-seeded Wildcats (30-7). Kansas has received stunningly good play in the NCAA Tournament from Remy Martin. Not once did Martin reach the 20-point mark in the regular season, but he has done so twice during March Madness and was named Most Outstanding Player of the Midwest Region after Kansas routed Miami 76-50 in the Elite Eight. Consider that the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. |
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04-02-22 | Penguins v. Avalanche OVER 6 | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 overall and 4-1-2 in Penguins last 7 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. While the Over is 6-1-1 in Avalanche last 8 vs. Eastern Conference, 9-2 in Avalanche last 11 vs. Metropolitan, and 7-3 in Avalanche last 10 Saturday games. In addition the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. |
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04-02-22 | Panthers v. Devils OVER 7 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 23-6-2 in Panthers last 31 vs. Eastern Conference, 21-6-2 in Panthers last 29 games playing on 1 days rest, 20-6-2 in Panthers last 28 vs. Metropolitan, and 15-5-1 in Panthers last 21 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. While the Over is 18-7-3 in Devils last 28 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game, 25-10-2 in Devils last 37 games as an underdog, and 15-7-1 in Devils last 23 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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04-01-22 | Blues v. Oilers -140 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great matchup and the Blues are certainly capable of winning but Edmonton is feeling it at home on an eight-game winning streak. The franchise record is nine. Connor McDavid has scored in back-to-back games and has eight goals in his last 11 games as part of an 11-game point streak (8G, 13A). The Oilers (4.70) and Blues (3.90) are averaging the first and third-most goals per game since March 10. Jordan Kryou (62 points) is iffy for St. Louis. |
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04-01-22 | Senators v. Red Wings -115 | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I really had no interest in this game between bad teams but will roll with the Wings at home because Ottawa is giving Mads Sogaard his first-ever NHL start in net. The 6-foot-7 Sogaard was 16-13-1, with a 2.87 goals against average and .906 save percentage with Belleville of the American Hockey League this year. His NHL experience amounts to one exhibition period in September. I'm always going to fade a rookie netminder in his first start on the road. |
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04-01-22 | Raptors v. Magic +11.5 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This feels a bit like a trap game for Toronto, which comes off a four-game homestand that featured three games against playoff teams. It's a weird one-game road trip to Orlando and then back to Toronto for four games, including a potential playoff preview vs. Miami on Sunday. It wouldn't stun me if the Raptors rested a starter tonight, either. I'm not expecting the Magic to win or anything, but they should be able to stay within 10. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its past six vs. teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in its past eight as a dog. |
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04-01-22 | Predators v. Sabres +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo has been an absolute cash cow on the puckline over the past few weeks. Either the Sabres win outright or lose by a goal in overtime it seems. It's so nice when a game goes to OT/shootout and I don't give a fudge about the winner. Nashville has lost three of its past four on the road. |
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04-01-22 | Islanders v. Rangers -159 | 3-0 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No. 1 goaltender Ilya Sorokin is out. Just from what I'm reading, it's more likely than not he also misses Friday, which probably means Cory Schneider gets the call in the second of a B2B and the Rangers should torch him. If it's Schneider, who hasn't played in the NHL this season, this ML will rise quite a bit. The Isles are 4-12 in their past 16 in the second of a B2B and have nothing to play for. The Blueshirts are on a four-game winning streak and have playoff seeding/potential division title to care about. |
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03-31-22 | Jets v. Maple Leafs -200 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units News just broke that Winnipeg leading scorer Kyle Connor (41 goals, 41 assists) and top-six defenseman Nate Schmidt (31 points) tested positive for COVID, so they are not playing tonight (which works out nicely since I took the Sabres on the puckline) or Thursday or Saturday. Some books will post lookahead lines for NHL teams that play the night before like Winnipeg here, some won't. This ML will certainly jump. |
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03-30-22 | Jets v. Sabres +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo has won six of nine and two of those three losses were at least in overtime, which is obviously all we need here on the puckline. Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck is 9-11-7 with a 3.12 GAA on the road. It's the Jets' first road game in 10 days and ahead of a rivalry matchup in Toronto on Thursday. |
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03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M -125 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's grab this dominant Texas A&M squad to advance to the NIT final. They've been playing very strong basketball, winning 10 of their last 11 games and only taking a loss to Tennessee in the SEC tournament. They've also kept opponents under 66 points in all of their last 6 games. I think they will again be able to lean on their defense and keep this Washington State team at bay. |
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03-29-22 | Avalanche v. Flames -140 | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This could easily be a Western Conference Finals preview and really I'm just taking the home side. The Avalanche are 1-5 in their past six as dogs and are still down Gabriel Landeskog (59 points) ... and, in a surprise, have ruled out Nathan MacKinnon (70 points) as well. So this ML may rise a bit. Calgary has won 17 of its past 21 at home. |
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03-29-22 | Bucks +105 v. 76ers | 118-116 | Win | 105 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks and 76ers are tied with a 46-28 record and both could finish anywhere from first to fourth in the Eastern Conference, so this is an important game. The Bucks haven’t been at full strength for a while, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday all missing time recently. However, they should all play in this game, and Brook Lopez is back starting at center. I think the Bucks want to make a statement here that they are still the team to beat in the East, so look for them to pull out the victory. |
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03-29-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Penguins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is a -175 favorite to win ... and the Rangers are -175 on the puckline, so I'd be silly not to take New York wouldn't I? Igor Shesterkin (31-9-3, 2.11 GAA, .936 SV) is more than capable of stealing this game himself for the Blueshirts, who have won their past four as dogs. Just get to OT, that's all I care about, and no empty-net goal for Pittsburgh! |
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03-29-22 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team really has anything to play for, but Columbus is five games over. 500 at home and the Isles are three under on the road and won't have injured No. 1 goaltender Ilya Sorokin. The downgrade to Semyon Varlamov is enough for me to pay the puckline "tax" on Columbus at home -- although I think there's a pretty good chance the Jackets win outright. I'll play this with Panthers ML over Canadiens but won't post that game on here because the number is so high. |
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03-29-22 | Canadiens v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Consider that the Over is 19-7-1 in Canadiens last 27 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game, 18-7-1 in Canadiens last 26 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 7-3 in Canadiens last 10 games as an underdog. While the Over is 20-5-2 in Panthers last 27 games playing on 1 days rest, 22-6-2 in Panthers last 30 vs. Eastern Conference, and 20-6-1 in Panthers last 27 games as a home favorite. |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure -125 v. Xavier | 77-84 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Musketeers are familiar with Madison Square Garden -- they lost in the first round of the Big East Tournament there -- the experienced Bonnies will have a decided crowd edge in the NIT semifinals. St. Bonaventure should make it hard for Xavier to score inside; that's where Osun Osunniyi (11.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.9 bpg) contests everything. It will be up to Xavier's Nate Johnson and Adam Kunkel, who are 9 of 38 from 3-point range in the NIT, to carry the load offensively. The Musketeers did an admirable job of getting to the Garden without senior guard Paul Scruggs (torn ACL). But this is a bad matchup for them. Look for Xavier to fall to 1-7 ATS in its last eight games at neutral sites. |
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03-28-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Kings OVER 5.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 7-1 in Kraken last 8 Monday games, |
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03-28-22 | Thunder -125 v. Blazers | 134-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This has the makings of an ugly matchup between two tanking teams. They will be extremely shorthanded, but they have both been playing that way for a while. One new noteworthy injury for the Trail Blazers is Trendon Watford (leg), who will miss his first game after starting nine straight. He might not be a big name, but he averaged 15.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists during that stretch, so his loss could be significant. Look for Tre Mann and Aleksej Pokusevski to help lead the Thunder to victory. |
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03-28-22 | Coyotes v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 6-2-2 in Coyotes last 10 games as a road underdog, 9-3 in Coyotes last 12 Monday games, and 6-2-2 in Coyotes last 10 road games. While the Over is 6-1 in Oilers last 7 overall, 5-1 in Oilers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest, and 4-1-1 in Oilers last 6 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. |
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03-28-22 | Sabres v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 3-0-1 in Sabres last 4 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation, 6-2 in Sabres last 8 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game, and 5-2 in Sabres last 7 games as an underdog. While the Over is 3-0-1 in Blackhawks last 4 overall, 5-0 in Blackhawks last 5 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation, and 8-1 in Blackhawks last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. |
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03-28-22 | Bulls -159 v. Knicks | 104-109 | Loss | -159 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls haven’t been a great team on the road this season, but they got a much-needed win there Saturday when they defeated the Cavaliers in Cleveland. They are mostly healthy heading into this matchup against the Knicks, with Lonzo Ball (knee) being their only noteworthy absence. The Knicks are all but eliminated from the playoffs, and are 3-9 ATS as a home underdog, so look for the Bulls to cover on their way to a second straight road victory. |
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03-28-22 | Canucks v. Blues -150 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I wasn't going to play this game because the Blues are in a bit of a funk but now will because Vancouver is starting backup Jaroslav Halak (3-6-0, 3.19 GAA) in net and the ML almost surely will rise a bit. It's also Vancouver's fourth road game in six nights. The Nucks are 0-4 in their past four in that scenario. The Blues are 3-1-1 in their last five meetings with the Canucks and 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings at Enterprise Center. |
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03-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -210 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The books are just not giving us great ML value, so I'm changing up a little with my bets and paying the "tax" on a more sure thing. Plus, I rather like not sweating overtime/shootout because I swear that I'm like 0-27 on games that go to shootouts this year. So incredibly frustrating. The Caps are 3-0 vs. the Hurricanes this season so I'm a bit surprised they are even home dogs. TJ Oshie returned from injury for Washington on Saturday and it sounds as if Nic Dowd might Monday. Carolina is 1-4 in its past five on the road. Maybe it wins here but tough to see it by multiple goals. |
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03-27-22 | Panthers +111 v. Maple Leafs | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Panthers defeated the Ottawa Senators 4-3 in a shootout to improve to 9-1-1 in their past 11 road games. Florida has won three in a row overall. The Maple Leafs lost 4-2 to the host Montreal Canadiens, despite having an enormous 51-18 advantage in shots on goal. |
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03-27-22 | Flyers v. Predators -240 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nashville entered the weekend atop the Western Conference wild-card race. The Predators opened their three-game trip with a 6-3 victory at Anaheim, with Filip Forsberg collecting two goals and three assists. The Flyers are coming off a 6-3 loss Friday at Colorado, a game in which goaltender Carter Hart was pelted with 51 shots. The loss came one night after the Flyers posted a 5-2 win in St. Louis to snap a 13-game road skid (0-11-2) dating to Dec. 29. Hayden Hodgson had a goal and an assist in his NHL debut. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's +8.5 v. North Carolina | 49-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units After Holloway guided tiny Saint Peter's to a championship in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, he became a shooting star in the coaching ranks as the 15th-seeded Peacocks felled Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue in the NCAA Tournament. He is widely expected to be offered the vacant coaching job at his alma mater, Seton Hall, but will not address what he calls "rumors." Saint Peter's defeated Purdue 67-64 Friday in the Sweet 16, using its signature relentless defense to bottle up NBA prospect Jaden Ivey, who finished with just nine points on 4-of-12 shooting with six turnovers. Purdue was rated the most efficient offense in the country by KenPom.com entering the game. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Kansas (31-6) hounded fourth-seeded Providence into 33.8 percent shooting en route to Friday's 66-61 semifinal victory, including a 4-for-23 effort from 3-point range. Although the Jayhawks shot just 39.3 percent from the floor, they prevailed behind disciplined defense and were plus-five in the rebounding column. Offensively, resurgent point guard Remy Martin had a game-high 23 points to lead the Jayhawks in scoring for the third time in as many NCAA Tournament games while Jalen Wilson contributed 16 points and 11 rebounds. Ochai Agbaji, a Naismith Player of the Year finalist, had five points on 2-for-8 shooting, by far his lowest output of the tournament, but Jayhawks coach Bill Self indicated the team isn't panicking. Agbaji had four blocks, four boards and two steals while helping to steady the defense. |
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03-27-22 | Lightning v. Islanders +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -190 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lightning are all but assured of getting a chance to become the first three-peat champion in the NHL since the Islanders won four in a row from 1980 through 1983. But a late-season slump may make the road tougher for Tampa Bay, which won for just the third time in nine games (3-6-0) Saturday and enters Sunday third in the Atlantic Division -- one point behind the second-place Bruins and one point ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Lightning, which squandered a pair of one-goal leads in Thursday's 3-2 loss to the Bruins, were in danger of falling to the Red Wings before Steven Stamkos scored the tying goal with 4:38 left in regulation. Brayden Point won the game by scoring on the power play at the 2:32 mark of overtime. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Arkansas has won 18 of its last 21 games and has been successful by pushing the pace, helping seven of its last nine get Over the total. The Razorbacks covered the spread in 21 games and also went Over the total in 21 games this season. They also have covered their last five games as an underdog. Duke likes to play fast as well and has gone Over the number in eight of its last nine. I’m betting that this will be the last game of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski's amazing career, but I don't like the price on the Arkansas money line so I just took the points with the Razorbacks (+4). In addition playing on any NCAA tournament team in the Elite 8 round if they upset a #1 seed as an underdog in the Sweet 16 round is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1996. |
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03-26-22 | Devils v. Capitals -163 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Devils gave the Maple Leafs a battle, the loss also magnified why New Jersey is in last place in the Metropolitan Division and all but guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season and the ninth time in 10 years since reaching the Stanley Cup Finals in the spring of 2012. Of the three goals the Maple Leafs scored Wednesday, two were scored short-handed, including the game-winner with 4:42 left in the third period. Pierre Engvall picked off a pass by New Jersey's Jesper Bratt in the Devils' zone and raced up the ice to score the unassisted goal in the middle of a four-minute power play for New Jersey. The Capitals, who are on pace to make the playoffs for the eighth straight season and the 14th time in 15 years, did just enough against the Sabres to remain two points behind the first wild card, the Tampa Bay Lightning. |
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03-26-22 | Devils v. Capitals OVER 6 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 7-2 in Devils last 9 Saturday games, 19-6-1 in Devils last 26 road games, and 18-7-1 in Devils last 26 games as a road underdog. While the Over is 5-1 in Capitals last 6 games as a favorite, 13-5 in Capitals last 18 vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 18-7-1 in Capitals last 26 games following a win. |
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03-26-22 | Canucks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 7-2 in Canucks last 9 vs. Western Conference, 6-2 in Canucks last 8 games playing on 1 days rest, and 6-2 in Canucks last 8 road games. While the Over is 6-1 in Stars last 7 games following a win, 4-1 in Stars last 5 overall, and 4-1 in Stars last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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03-26-22 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While I have been murdered on NHL big home favorites lately, have been killing it -- I need to stop watching all these Netflix serial killer shows -- on home dogs on the puckline. Unfortunately, the books don't give us the value to do it often, but this is one at -120 on Montreal in maybe the best rivalry in sports (seriously, see a Habs-Leafs game in your life if you can). Plus it's a Leafs rookie in net in Montreal? Honestly, the ML on the Canadiens might not be a bad idea, but I'm a tad conservative betting-wise. |
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03-26-22 | Canucks v. Stars -138 | 4-1 | Loss | -138 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This ML seems a bit low, but then Vancouver tends to Canuck me often when I fade them. You know what you get with Stars netminder Jake Oettinger: At least two goals allowed but rarely more than three. Nucks netminder Thatcher Demko's GAA is about half a goal worse away, but then I've honestly stopped trying to make mathematical sense of this NHL season. |
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03-26-22 | Houston -145 v. Villanova | 44-50 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The greatness of Houston has been undervalued all season by oddsmakers. The spreads have been too low, which helped the Cougars go 25-12 against-the-spread. The selection committee also looked down on them, making them a No. 5 seed. The Houston defense posted better numbers this season than last year and again led the country in field goal percentage defense (37.4). It’s that defensive intensity that has carried the Cougars to wins and covers in all six of their postseason games. Houston is still cheap and should get the cover, but laying only -134 on the moneyline is better value than the spread. I also have a small lean on Under 128 total points. |
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03-26-22 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -180 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vegas trails Dallas by one point for the final wild-card spot but the Stars still have four games in hand. The Golden Knights, who begin a stretch of seven games against teams currently out of the playoffs, are 3-7 over their past 10 games. All seven of the losses came on the road where they were outscored 30-11. However, the Golden Knights are 3-0 at home during that stretch, including a 6-1 blowout of Nashville on Thursday. |
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03-26-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 107 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 10-3-1 in Islanders last 14 games playing on 1 days rest, 6-2-1 in Islanders last 9 vs. a team with a winning record, and 12-5 in Islanders last 17 road games. While the Over is 5-1-1 in Bruins last 7 vs. Metropolitan and 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Boston. |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL -143 | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 49 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Miami, making its first NCAA appearance in four years, has never advanced beyond the Sweet 16, and like the Cyclones, the Hurricanes thrive behind their guards. Kameron McGusty (17.5 points a game), Isaiah Wong (15.5), Charlie Moore (12.8) and Jordan Miller (10.1) average double-figure scoring for Miami, playing at least 30 minutes per game. Miami (25-10) coughed up a late lead Friday in its first-round game against seventh-seeded USC before winning by a basket. Two days later, the Hurricanes trounced No. 2 seed Auburn 79-61, using their quickness and experience to overcome a minus-8 rebounding margin. Wong scored 21 points and McGusty, a sixth-year senior, added 20 while helping Miami force 13 turnovers and hound the Tigers into 30.4 percent shooting, including 19.2 percent from long range. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina +2.5 v. UCLA | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Tar Heels broke out and won their final five regular-season games, including their long-discussed upset of Duke in Mike Krzyzewski's last home game before retirement. Still, perhaps because ACC basketball had a down year by its standards, North Carolina flew under the radar and entered the NCAA Tournament as an No. 8 seed. First-year Carolina coach Hubert Davis has a theory. North Carolina owns a 10-3 all-time record against UCLA, including the past five meetings. |
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03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas -7.5 | 61-66 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating; 5 Units Kansas (30-6) gets fourth-seeded Providence (27-5), which has won 16 games by single digits, including 11 by five or fewer points. Kansas ultimately pulled away from ninth-seeded Creighton, 79-72, to reach the 32nd Sweet 16 in program history. Credit the latest resurgent performance by point guard Remy Martin. A transfer from Arizona State, Martin worked through knee soreness and inconsistency during the regular season before sparkling down the stretch. He scored 20 points against Creighton after a 15-point effort in the Jayhawks' tournament-opening rout of Texas Southern, the first two times Martin led the team in scoring this season. |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's +12.5 v. Purdue | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units No matter where you are on the court, beware: KC Ndefo is coming to block your shot. The Saint Peter's forward tallied six blocks in the No. 15 seed's second-round NCAA Tournament win over Murray State. The highlight came in the second half, when he chased down Trae Hannibal and swatted away his fast-break dunk attempt. Ndefo embodies the defensive intensity Saint Peter's (21-11) has used to pull off two stunners and advance in the East Region to the Sweet 16, where they'll play No. 3 seed Purdue Friday in Philadelphia, Pa. |
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03-24-22 | Houston +1.5 v. Arizona | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Cougars (31-5), perhaps still a little peeved about being given just a 5 seed by the NCAA selection committee, look to take their next step to a repeat spot in the Final Four. Houston did almost everything correctly Sunday in a 68-53 win over fourth-seeded Illinois as Taze Moore scored 21, Jamal Shead 18, and Kyler Edwards 15 points. Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson was so pumped up after the win that he pulled off his shirt during the team's locker room celebration. Houston has won five straight games and 11 of its past 12, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the third straight season. Arizona is making its first Sweet 16 appearance in six years. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke +1.5 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units After allowing an average of 57.5 points in its two NCAA wins, Texas Tech will need another stellar showing against Duke, which defeated Cal State Fullerton and Michigan State to reach this stage. Freshman star Paolo Banchero had 19 points and seven rebounds in the win over Michigan State. Mark Williams added 15 points, eight rebounds and five blocked shots. illiams, who has 104 blocks on the season, is the first player in Duke history to have five rejections in back-to-back NCAA tourney games. He also had five against Cal State Fullerton. The Blue Devils average 80.3 points per game on the season. Duke won the lone previous meeting, 69-58 on Dec. 20, 2018, at New York's Madison Square Garden. |
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03-24-22 | Pacers +11.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana lost in the final seconds at home on Wednesday vs. Sacramento, which crushed me betting-wise, and would have no shot normally in Memphis ... but the Grizzlies are semi-punting with Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke all taking a seat in the second of a B2B for the Grizz as well. Probably a trap game anyways for Memphis off the big win over Brooklyn. The Pacers will have Malcolm Brogdon tonight after he sat Wednesday. UPDATE: Indiana is now sitting guys left and right so I'd just steer clear of this game completely at this point. |
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03-24-22 | Wizards +9 v. Bucks | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards stink, but we'll take nearly two TDs with the Bucks ruling out both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Sounds like a punt game for Milwaukee -- which probably still wins by about 10. This spread will drop. |
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03-24-22 | Cavs v. Raptors -190 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is starting to rise at some books, so I'm just going to grab it now and risk someone key being ruled out for Toronto -- I'm presuming oddsmakers know something. Both Gary Trent and OG Anunoby are questionable for the Raptors, but it sounds as if at least Trent will play. This is hugely important for both in potentially avoiding the East play-in tournament. Cleveland hasn't played on the road since March 12 and has lost six of its past seven away. |
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03-24-22 | Red Wings v. Islanders -214 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm really getting tired of betting the NHL because the books just aren't giving us any value. I've been obliterated the past two nights on home losses as massive favorites by Calgary and Colorado, but what am I supposed to do with limited options? I do usually back the Isles at home when Ilya Sorokin is in net, and he is here. He's 11-3-3 with a 1.81 GAA at home. The Wings have just ruled out Filip Zadina (20 points) and Givani Smith (seven points). |
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03-24-22 | Michigan +5.5 v. Villanova | 55-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Michigan was in dire straits toward the end of the Big Ten campaign, losing four of its final eight regular-season games and then bowing out to Indiana in the first round of the conference tournament. The Wolverines also had a stretch of games that were affected by COVID-19, played multiple games without Dickinson, and were without suspended coach Juwan Howard for five contests. But when it has counted the most, Michigan has come together. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Top-seeded Gonzaga was tested more than expected in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament while reaching the Sweet 16 for the seventh straight time. Now the Bulldogs will attempt to play two strong halves when they face fourth-seeded Arkansas on Thursday night in the West Regional semifinals at San Francisco. The Razorbacks (27-8) will run a slew of athletic players against the Bulldogs (28-3) as they attempt to reach the Elite Eight for the second straight season. Arkansas lost to eventual national champion Baylor last season. |
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03-24-22 | Panthers v. Canadiens +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 105 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Have to take the Habs at plus-money (+110) on the puckline at home. The team is 1-2 since netminder Jake Allen returned from injury but both losses were in overtime and that would be just fine here. Cats backup Spencer Knight goaltender has been better of late than he was early in the season but still is more than capable of a terrible game. Anton Lundell (28 points) and Aaron Ekblad (57 points) are both out for Florida. |
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03-24-22 | Stars v. Hurricanes -210 | 4-3 | Loss | -210 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here's another one where the price is silly, but the Stars are giving newly acquired Scott Wedgewood the start in net, and he's just not good. Dallas can't play Jake Oettinger every single game and backup Braden Holtby is injured. Max Domi is expected to make his Carolina debut. He posted 32 points in 53 games with the Blue Jackets before the trade. I'll probably play this with the Islanders. |
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03-23-22 | Blackhawks v. Ducks -119 | 4-2 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I woke up this morning and thought I was having a nightmare -- Calgary at -290 had blown a 3-1 home lead and lost to the Sharks 4-3. Are you freaking kidding me?!? Sometimes I truly hate the NHL because it's nonsensical. Just a lousy night all around Tuesday. The Ducks are in free-fall, but the Blackhawks are in tank mode, too, after trading No.1 goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury and a few others to rebuild. Thus, Anaheim should hold serve at home because new Hawks No. 1 in net Kevin Lankinen simply isn't very good. |
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03-23-22 | Canucks v. Avalanche -250 | 3-1 | Loss | -250 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maybe I'm a sucker for doing a big home favorite again after Calgary's choke job, and I'd still hedge this on regulation or in a play with Ducks ML, but I'm picking every NHL game today, the heck with it. Often do better just going on my gut. I was on the fence a bit, but the Canucks are giving backup Jaroslav Halak the call in net -- he's not good these days -- and are still down a handful of injured players. It's expected to be the Avs debut of Artturi Lehkonen and Andrew Cogliano after both were acquired in trade. |
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03-23-22 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo is playing pretty well of late -- the Sabres always had more talent than their record showed -- and it's the second of a back-to-back for the Penguins. It presumably will be Casey DeSmith in net for Pittsburgh, and he has lost back-to-back starts, plus not played in eight days. |