Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-06-21 | Giants v. Rockies +134 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies and the Giants actually have the same record at 11-8 in the past three weeks, and the Rockies are one of the best teams at home in the league. The Giants are coming off multiple high leverage bullpen games against the Dodgers so their bullpen should be worn out. Not ideal for Coors Field. Kevin Gausman has yet to pitch at Coors Field this season and he allowed 5 ER in 10.1 IP in Coors Field last season. Kyle Freeland has been pitching really well lately including one run allowed in 6 IP against the Giants in his only start against them this season. The Giants tend to struggle against lefties and Buster Posey should be out of the lineup after playing back to back nights. Take the Rockies at home. |
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09-06-21 | Reds v. Cubs +133 | 3-4 | Win | 133 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have the fifth worst wOBA in the league against lefties this season and they face Justin Steele today who allowed just 1 hit in 5 IP in his last start. The Cubs have sneakily won 6 straight games and 7 of their last 10 games including a 3 run 9th inning yesterday to walk off the Pirates. In the past three weeks, the Cubs are 11-7 while the Reds are 9-10. The Cubs are 3-4 against the Reds at home this season and they just won 2 out of 3 games in Cincy in August. Take the home dog. |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays +130 v. Yankees | 8-0 | Win | 130 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays bats have awoken after their onslaught of the Athletics relievers continued. They have now won 4 straight games and 7 of their last 10 while the take on the slumping Yankees. The Yankees just lost 2 straight to the Orioles and have lost 6 of 10. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jameson Taillon are both capable of pitching gems or getting lit up so I will take the value on the dog. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Norvell was hired last year after the Seminoles suffered consecutive losing seasons after coming up winners the previous 42 years, but the plague continues. Meanwhile, former Miami head coach Randy Shannon was brought in to clean up the defense. QB transfer McKenzie Milton was “fully cleared to play” after playing five seasons, and going 26-6 at UCF before suffering a gruesome right knee injury, after which he spent five months in a wheel chair and on crutches. And 5-star recruit RB Demarkcus Bowman transfers in from Clemson after backing up Travis Etienne. Florida State underclassmen tallied the most player starts (52.3%) in the ACC last season. Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is 27-5 SU and 17-9-1 ATS at home in his college career, including 3-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. In addition, only two of his 5 home losses have been by more than 7 points. |
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09-05-21 | Dodgers -173 v. Giants | 4-6 | Loss | -173 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants have withstood everything that's gone against them this season, but now the starting rotation has some holes. Los Angeles RHP Walker Buehler has faced San Francisco's two aces this season, and the Dodgers lost two of the three games, even though Buehler allowed a total of two earned runs. Los Angeles will get the win - and sole possession of first place in the NL West - on Sunday. |
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09-05-21 | Mariners -120 v. Diamondbacks | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners are riding a four-game winning streak and are only four games out for the final AL wild-card spot. Seattle winning five straight looks strong, and it’s fairly cheap behind RHP Chris Flexen, as the team has gone 17-8 behind him. Opponents have hit Arizona LHP Tyler Gilbert hard since he tossed a no-hitter in his first major-league start. Take the Mariners to win. |
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09-05-21 | Braves v. Rockies +1.5 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting the Rockies at plus-money at home? No-brainer as I've said many times. Yes, it's the MLB debut of Rox pitcher Ryan Feltner, but he has some very good minor-league numbers and the Braves obviously don't have a "book" on him. All three games in this series have been decided by one run. |
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09-05-21 | White Sox v. Royals +142 | 0-6 | Win | 142 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dylan Cease is 5-4 with a 5.37 ERA on the road this season. However, he has been very good lately and he has faced the Royals four times already this season. Brady Singer has been pitching well lately also but he has only faced the White Sox one time this season as opposed to Cease. The Royals have been hitting well lately and these two teams have split their meetings this season 9-9. Adalberto Mondesi is back in the lineup. Take the value in the Royals at home. |
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09-05-21 | Indians +145 v. Red Sox | 11-5 | Win | 145 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams continue to play close games as the Indians tied the game in the 9th yesterday only for the Red Sox to walk it off in the 10th. Nick Pivetta has been placed on the COVID IL and it looks like the Red Sox will be going with a bullpen game. Zach Plesac has been very good lately and he is coming off one of his best starts if the season. The Indians have been playing well lately and the Red Sox are still without many key players including Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers is getting the day off, take the value on the Indians. |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | 10-3 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Swinney is 5-0 SU in his career in opening games of the season when coming off a bowl loss the previous campaign – by an average winning score of 38-14. Then tack on Clemmie’s 7-1 ATS mark in neutral site games (it was 7-0 until the playoff loss to the Buckeyes). And remember – the Tigers had 26 players make their first-career start during the 2020 season, which tied for the most in the country with Mississippi State, while new QB D.J. Uiagalelei looked mighty impressive in his starting debut against Notre Dame last season. Simply put, Clemson does not have another game on the schedule right now that would offset a tough neutral-site loss to Georgia. Yes, Clemson can still get to the College Football Playoff for the seventh year in a row if the Tigers win out, but they need rivals like Boston College, Florida State and NC State to become quality teams in 2021. Also, playing on any college team in their first game of the season if they lost SU as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season and they’ve won 17 or more of their previous 22 games is 14-2 ATS since 1990. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5.5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Jeff Traylor came to San Antonio with strong credentials, but he blew the roof off the Alamodome in his first season with the Roadrunners in 2020 – leading them to seven wins and a bowl game. The former associate head coach at Texas, SMU and Arkansas was also a four-time Texas High School Coach of the Year, and led his squads to five state championship game appearances, three state titles and a dozen district crowns. Whew! Safe to say UTSA hit a home run with the hire of this legendary high school coach. It’s paid off at the recruiting window, too, where UTSA moved up 31 spots this season. Behind a team loaded to the gills with experience, it only looks to get better. Las Vegas oddsmaker and Power Rating guru Kenny White pegged the Roadrunners as the deepest team with the most returning experience in 2021. We’re all-in with Kenny. Since joining the FBS, UTSA is 18-12-1 ATS as a non-conference dog, including 6-0 ATS when taking fewer than 8 points, and 3-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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09-04-21 | UL-Lafayette +8 v. Texas | 18-38 | Loss | -102 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units A whopping 16 players promptly transferred out of Texas when it was announced that Herman had been replaced. Sarkisian announced that redshirt freshman Hudson Card would be the team’s starting quarterback, as he replaces four-year starter Sam Ehlinger. Card is a four-star prospect, where he was ranked as the second-best dual threat quarterback and seventh-best recruit in Texas in the 2020 recruiting class by 247Sports. Also back for Texas are 5 experienced offensive linemen and a dangerous running back in Bijan Robinson. With the experience card weighing heavily in the Cajuns’ favor today, consider that ULL is 11-3 ATS away as either a dog of a favorite of -7 or more points under Napier, including 4-0 SUATS versus foes who won 8 or fewer games the previous year. |
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09-04-21 | Alabama v. Miami-FL +19.5 | 44-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I realize Alabama always wins these Kickoff Games in blowouts and I'm not saying Miami wins -- although I don't think it's impossible. In terms of returning experience/starters, UM is among the national leaders and Alabama near the bottom. Nick Saban lost a TON of talent off last year's championship team. Sure, he simply reloads with five-stars, but it might take a few games to get going. I'll be stunned if the Tide cover this number. Consider as well that playing on any ’17 returning starter’ underdog in its first game of the season, your win percentage zooms to over 58% with a 98-71-3 ATS winning record. Better yet, put dress these same guys up as double-digit dogs who won 3 or more games the previous season and they become a 40-22-1 ATS winning proposition. |
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09-03-21 | Dodgers -113 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First place in the NL West on the line -- the Dodgers come in with a full bullpen after being off Thursday, while the Giants aren't hitting and were lucky to avoid a four-game home sweep at the hands of the Brewers on Thursday. Arguably San Francisco's best reliever, Tyler Rogers (1.80 ERA), has pitched in the past two games and thus likely won't be available. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani is 0-3 with a 9.43 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers this year. I don't love LA starter David Price, but getting that loaded lineup at just -115 against anyone is a must-play. I expect this ML to jump in the morning. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Northwestern hosts Michigan State tonight they will do so with a dose of 'double-revenge' on their minds – including a 29-20 loss as -13.5-point chalk at MSU last season. Given the Wildcats 9-1 ATS record as conference favorites of 10 or fewer points the last six years, and a 12-3 ATS overall mark when seeking revenge from a Big Ten loss, we'll opt for the better team and the better coach in this payback this evening. |
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09-03-21 | Braves v. Rockies +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Won yet again on the Rockies RL on Thursday, and I see no reason to stop Friday at -120. Their pitcher Thursday, Chi Chi Gonzalez, is one of the NL's worst (probably why they lost 6-5), but Friday's starter Antonio Senzatela has always been better in Denver (3.89 ERA this year) and has a 2.93 ERA in five starts overall since coming off the injured list. Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa is a fine young pitcher, but this will be his first time at Coors Field. It's a totally different experience. I'm going to take the Rox +1.5 at home pretty much always when they are -120 or better. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fuente finds himself on the hottest of hot seats in his sixth season-opener at Blacksburg. Recent ATS history is not on UNC’s side here, as Va Tech owns six covers in its last eight games with the Heels, plus the series host is on a 4-0 ATS run. We also prefer the Hokies’ recent 5-1 ATS mark with conference revenge to North Carolina’s surprisingly feeble 1-5 ATS effort as chalk of 7 or |
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09-02-21 | Braves v. Rockies +144 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You know what I like to say ... Stick With What Works! The Rockies are back home, where they are 43-22. That means they play like a 107-win team at home. They've gone 10-2 in their last two homestands and we went 4-0 on the last one. Why stray? Meantime, the Braves have lost six of eight against tough competition after getting fat against mostly weaklings. The Rockies might not look as tough as the Yankees, Giants or Dodgers, but when in Coors Field, they absolutely are that tough. Ride 'em until they buck ya. |
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09-02-21 | Indians -100 v. Royals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indians starter Triston McKenzie is throwing the ball very well of late. In four starts in August he had a 1.93 ERA and 28 strikeouts against two walks in 28 innings. He's also totally shut down the Royals in three outings this season, having allowed only one run in 15 2/3 innings. On the other side, it's been a while since Mike Minor wasn't bad. The Royals are 2-9 in his last 11 starts and he has a 6.46 ERA in that time. So we've got the better team having a much better pitching matchup with very playable odds. Take 'em. |
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09-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Tennessee -35 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Will Josh Heupel be the answer for the Vols, who've not only hit the skids (245-118 point deficit 7-of-last-8, & must overcome transfer losses). But if there ever was a tonic, the Falcons provide it, with 0-9 ATS road record, ceding 43 point per game in their last 24 tilts |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +14 | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was waiting for this to get back to 14 jic. Don't think will get higher. Ohio State coach Ryan Day just named CJ Stroud his starting QB. That's fine. Minnesota's Tanner Morgan is one of the best returning QBs in the Big Ten. The Nuts lost so much talent. Yep, they will rock but will take a while. My boy PJ Fleck (Western Michigan) and the Row The Boats bring back 20 starters and will cover if not pull the upset. |
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09-02-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -151 | 4-0 | Loss | -151 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units he Red Sox broke the Rays' nine-game winning streak on Wednesday, but that was with Chris Sale on the hill. This time around it's Eduardo Rodriguez in front of a COVID-ravaged bullpen. He's been terrible this season with a 5.12 ERA. Even if he holds the Rays down one time through the order, it won't take much longer for them to bust through offensively. The Rays send rookie sensation Shane McClanahan, who has a 2.84 ERA in his last eight starts, seven of those Rays wins. He's 6-1 at home and the Rays are 43-24 at home. Play the winner. Stick with what works. |
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09-02-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I can't fathom the Giants being swept four games at home and was going to back them here ... until I saw their lineup. No Buster Posey. Down to their fourth-string second baseman due to injuries. A starting outfield of Austin Slater, Darin Ruf and Mauricio Dubon. Yikes! So, I'll take the Brewers RL at -130 behind Eric Lauer (2.76 day ERA). I'd take the Under if the wind wasn't blowing out a bit. |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -188 v. Angels | 4-6 | Loss | -188 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels just announced that Shohei Ohtani will not pitch Tuesday night (he will be able to DH through a minor injury), so this moneyline is clearly going to rise overnight with Jaime Barria (2-2, 5.56) taking his place. It's Jameson Taillon for the Yanks. He is 7-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last 13 starts, allowing three earned or fewer in 11 of those. |
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08-31-21 | Cubs v. Twins -150 | 3-1 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I haven't faded my Cubs for a while! Pitcher Zach Davies has not been good this month, going 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA. Chicago is 1-8 in its past nine vs. the American League and 1-8 in its past nine series openers. The Twins actually will finish August with a winning record, their first winning month of the year. They are 6-1 in their past seven at home vs. right-handers. I expect this ML to rise to around -160ish by the morning. |
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08-31-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore pitcher Keegan Akin is 0-5 with an 8.25 ERA on the road and was shelled for six runs in 4.1 innings in his lone 2021 start vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays offense, which already is the best at home in the AL, welcomed back George Springer from injury Monday. In 50 games as a Blue Jay, he has now scored 42 runs and reached base safely 79 times. Toronto pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA this year vs. the Birds (who are resting one of their top hitters in Trey Mancini). Obviously not going to risk -320 or whatever so Jays at -150 on runline it is. |
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08-30-21 | Yankees -172 v. Angels | 7-8 | Loss | -172 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Apparently, this will be the MLB debut of Angels pitcher Kyle Tyler, a 20th-round pick out of Oklahoma in 2018. He has solid minor-league numbers overall but was hit around in five Triple-A games this year, going 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA. The Yankees seem due a big offensive night after scoring just three runs in back-to-back losses in Oakland. Corey Kluber starts for NYY but will be on a pitch count off the injured list. New York has won five straight series openers. |
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08-30-21 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rain might affect a part of this game but it should be played. I also think this total may drop to 8, so I'll jump now at 8.5. The Phillies are without All-Star catcher JT Realmuto (and of course lost Rhys Hoskins for the season last week). It's a pretty weak lineup other than Bryce Harper, and young Nats right-hander Josiah Gray has a 2.89 ERA since being acquired from the Dodgers. Phils ace Zack Wheeler should be able to hold that meh Washington lineup to just a few runs. This feels like a 4-3 maybe 5-3 game, so Under it is. |
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08-30-21 | Twins v. Tigers +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Generally speaking, teams that have to travel to a city for a one-game makeup and then fly right back out to another location don't fare well in that makeup game because they just don't want to be there. That's the position the Twins are in here. They played a home series over the weekend vs. the Brewers, now have this meaningless game and then fly back home for another series starting Tuesday vs. the Cubs. Minnesota is a pretty lousy road team as it is. We'll take the Tigers on the RL -- behind former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize on the mound -- to be safe. |
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08-29-21 | Patriots -3 v. Giants | 22-20 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New England has a three-game rest advantage over the Giants, having played their last preseason game on a Thursday, while New York played a week ago today. The clincher: The favorite (New England) scored more than 17 points and beat the spread by 7 or more ponts, and won 1 or more preseason games last year, is 15-0-1 since 1983. |
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08-29-21 | Royals v. Mariners -147 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Are the playoff-hopeful Mariners really going to get swept at home by the Royals? I have a tough time seeing that. KC starter Brady Singer has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four. M's lefty Marco Gonzales has a 1.36 ERA this month. Hey, for what it's worth, the Mariners are 8-0 in their past four in Game 4 of a series. OK, reaching, but it's the end of a long trip for the Royals and they likely are on fumes. Always fade teams on the end of long trips, regardless of sport. |
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08-29-21 | Astros -212 v. Rangers | 2-13 | Loss | -212 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When the Houston Astros send Zack Greinke to the hill against Texas today they will do so knowing his is 10-0 this season in his team-starts against the Rangers. He also sports a 2.34 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP in his road starts this season. |
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08-29-21 | Blue Jays v. Tigers +160 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Matt Boyd is making his first start since June 14th but he has been much better at home with a 2.47 ERA. Jose Berrios has really struggled lately going 1-2 with a 4.81 ERA since arriving in Toronto. The Blue Jays are struggling, having won just 4 of their last 10 games. Akil Baddoo is back in the lineup and the Tigers have most of their regulars in. Take the value in the Tigers at home. |
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08-29-21 | Reds -178 v. Marlins | 1-2 | Loss | -178 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Tyler Mahle is much better on the road going 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA. Jesus Luzardo has struggled all season, but he has allowed at least 3 ER in all of his starts with Miami. The Reds play well on the road and they are 5-1 against the Reds in the past 2 weeks so they should have no problem today. Take the Reds to win the series. |
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08-28-21 | Bucs -3.5 v. Texans | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Tampa Bay travels to Houston in the final preseason game for both teams tonight the Bucs will do so knowing that defending Super Bowl champions are 6-0 SUATS away in exhibition games when facing foes coming off consecutive wins, with the last coming as an underdog. For what it's worth five of the wins came SU as underdogs. In addition, Tampa head coach Bruce Arians is 8-3-1 ATS away in his NFL preseason career, including 5-1 ATS in his first road traveller. And for what its worth, winless defending Super Bowl champions are also 3-0 ATS in their final preseason game since 1995. |
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08-28-21 | Bears -2.5 v. Titans | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NFL teams who open the preseason with a pair of home games are 31-15 SU and 31-12-3 away in Game Three when facing a foe in its preseason home opener, including 26-9-1 ATS when taking points. Not only is Chicago 3-0 SUATS in Game Three of the preseason, including 2-0 SUATS under head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears pair up nicely in this matchup with added fuel from THE CLINCHER: Tennessee is 0-4 SUATS at home in preseason games under head coach Mike Vrabel |
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08-28-21 | Ravens -3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is just simply a play on HC John Harbough as he is 19-0 SU and 17-1-1 ATS in the preseason since 2016. |
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08-28-21 | Hawaii +18 v. UCLA | 10-44 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chip Kelly has a horrible track record in nonconference games, particularly at UCLA where he's 1-5 so far. The lone cover came as a huge dog to Oklahoma, and the two times the Bruins have been favored in noncon games under Kelly they lost outright. I don't think that happens here, but with LSU looming, the Bruins will keep it pretty basic in their opener. |
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08-28-21 | Connecticut v. Fresno State -27.5 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a lot of points to lay, but I think the number is still short and maybe not accounting for a home field that has Connecticut making its longest trip of the season. This is the first opener for the Huskies since 2019. They have lots of experience returning from teams that went 3-21 in 2018-19. They might be rated too high. I believe Fresno State, with its running and passing games and most of their starters returning, buries the Huskies. Fresno State to cover. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line has dropped back to 6.5 at some books, so let's go ahead and jump now. I'm not sure that Nebraska should be a 7-point road favorite over any Big Ten team considering how much it has underachieved under Scott Frost. The Huskers are 5-11 ATS when favored under Frost and were blasted last year at home by Illinois, which should be better-coached in 2021 under Bret Bielema. It's a very veteran team with three super seniors along on the offensive line and a senior QB in Brandon Peters. |
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08-27-21 | Yankees -146 v. A's | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he main reason I’m betting the Yankees tonight is that they’ve won 12 straight. On a lesser level, I’m betting them because the A’s have lost five straight. Gerrit Cole starting is a bonus, especially since he’s been dominant in his last two starts, allowing just one run total in two Yankees wins. The A’s have lost three of Sean Manaea’s last four starts, including one where the Rangers scored seven runs off him. Yankees to win. |
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08-27-21 | Vikings +4.5 v. Chiefs | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota HC Zimmer has a 37-16 SU and 36-17 ATS career log in games against AFC foes, including 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS in NFLX games. While defending Super Bowl losers are 7-15 SU and 5-16-1 ATS in Game Three of the preseason since 1998. |
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08-27-21 | Reds -133 v. Marlins | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds lead the majors in OPS versus right-handed pitching (.786) and should have success against Zach Thompson. The Marlins have lost seven of Thompson's last nine starts. Wade Miley faces a Miami lineup that ranks 27th in OPS versus southpaws (.677). These teams just met last week, with the Reds sweeping four at home. Look for the Reds to beat Miami for the 11th time in their last 12 tries. |
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08-26-21 | White Sox -103 v. Blue Jays | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox get Cy Young candidate Carlos Rodon back from the injured list and he's supposedly ready to go a normal length -- but even if not, the Sox's top three relievers, Michael Kopech, Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks, are all available. The Jays' Hyun Jin Ryu has been rather hit or miss in his past handful of starts. Toronto also is starting a bit of a watered-down lineup after its Big 4 (Alejandro Kirk at DH?). |
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08-26-21 | Reds v. Brewers -104 | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brett Anderson vs. Sonny Gray and the Brewers are going for the sweep. Brett Anderson is much better at home with a 3.13 ERA and the Reds struggle against lefties with the 5th worst wOBA in the league. He has already faced Cincy this season and pitched two good outings and one bad one. Sonny Gray is better on the road but he was hit hard in his last start against the Brewers. I just don’t trust the Reds bullpen even if they take an early lead. The Brewers have all their top relievers available as well, so Ill take the Brewers at home to sweep. The Brewers have won five straight against the Reds and two of the last three series between these two teams have been sweeps. |
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08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies -144 | 7-4 | Loss | -144 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am a tad worried that Phillies ace and former Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler has been a bit off his past two starts, but he has been much better at home all year and the Rays are sitting a ton of offensive thunder in Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino, Austin Meadows and Manuel Margot essentially in favor of defense (plus obviously no DH). Tampa starting pitcher Ryan Yarbrough (4.57 ERA) is nothing special. |
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08-25-21 | Rockies -142 v. Cubs | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies were the victims of a bullpen blowup last night and ended up blowing a 4-0 lead, but the Rockies have the third highest wOBA in the league against lefties and Trevor Story was out of the lineup yesterday. The Cubs are still one of the worst teams in the league since the trade deadline, take the Rockies on the road. |
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08-25-21 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I expect Houston to take off now that Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are both back from injury/COVID -- Bregman is being activated today. The Astros should rough up Royals lefty Mike Minor (5.34 ERA) as Kansas City has lost his past four overall, and he's a bit worse away from home. Houston leads the AL in OPS vs. southpaws. The Astros' Lance McCullers (10-4, 3.21) has a 2.73 ERA in five career starts vs. the Royals. Tempted to take Houston without the runline (at -120), but -245 is a big number. |
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08-24-21 | Giants -101 v. Mets | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants are going with a bullpen game today starting with Sammy Long. Long hasn’t been great, but he should be fine against a Mets team that struggles against lefties. Tylor Megill faced the Giants last week and pitched well, but the hitters should have the advantage second time around. Kris Bryant is out of the lineup but Buster Posey is in. Bryant should get an important at bat too if this game is close. Take the value on the Giants. |
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08-24-21 | Twins +195 v. Red Sox | 9-11 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Griffin Jax has been pitching well lately having allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts. Tanner Houck has also been pitching well but he hasn’t been getting deep into games, and the Red Sox bullpen has been bad lately. The Twins were playing well until they ran into their kryptonite in the Yankees and the Red Sox were very close to losing two of three at home to the Rangers. Take the value in the Twins. |
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08-24-21 | Nationals +102 v. Marlins | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Erik Fedde has struggled this season, but Jesus Luzardo has struggled much more. The Marlins are sitting their top RBI guy in Jesus Aguilar and the Nats have multiple guys like Lane Thomas and Yadiel Hernandez hot right now. The Nats have the highest wOBA in the league against lefties and the Marlins have lost 7 straight games. Take the Nats. |
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08-24-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -122 | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Watered-down lineup for White Sox with no Tim Anderson, Cesar Hernandez or Andrew Vaughn. The latter two are resting, but Anderson (minor injury) is the key to that entire lineup and it's not a coincidence that Chicago has lost three straight without him. Jays starter Jose Berrios' 3.52 ERA is sixth best in the AL as is his opponents' average of .223. Right-handers really can't hit him (.184) and Berrios has been great in two home starts since being traded to Toronto from Minnesota. Sox starter Dylan Cease has a 5.86 road ERA. |
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08-24-21 | Angels -121 v. Orioles | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have now lost 18 straight games, and they get Ohtani and the Angels next at home. Dylan Bundy has struggled this season but maybe he focuses a little more pitching against his old team tonight. The Orioles bullpen has been terrible lately and Spenser Watkins has allowed at least four runs in 5 straight starts. Fade the Os until they win. |
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08-24-21 | Rays -113 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a battle of bullpens and I like the Rays to win that one every time. Ranger Suarez has pitched well but he has struggled getting deep into games now that he is stretched out. The Rays have many more options after Rasmussen who can open with four innings and they were off yesterday. They lose the DH but with a bullpen game, they should be able to pinch hit and make double switches at will. Take the Rays on the road. |
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08-23-21 | Mariners v. A's -130 | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Close losses have been the story with the Oakland A's, as they lost another game by one run Sunday against the Giants. It should be a different story Monday as Oakland has kept Marco Gonzales from pitching beyond six innings twice this season. Moreover, they were the last team to score multiple runs against Gonzales, on July 25. |
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08-23-21 | Yankees +1.5 v. Braves | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be only the third game in MLB history in which both teams enter on nine-game win streaks (or better) and the first since 1901. Perhaps small advantage Yankees in that their Sunday game was rained out so they will have a full bullpen -- but also lose the DH (Giancarlo Stanton is playing right field). Maybe it's a bad thing the Braves are at home? They are on a franchise-record 13-game road winning streak. I was going to take whichever team here was getting +1.5 on the runline. Do trust Yanks starter Jordan Montgomery a bit more than Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa. New York has won its past six vs. the National League, while the Braves are 1-9 in their past 10 at home vs. the AL. |
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08-23-21 | White Sox +100 v. Blue Jays | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and the White Sox have won their past two series openers before dropping the series. Lance Lynn is a legitimate Cy Young candidate and hasn’t been able to get that deep lately, but the White Sox have a much better bullpen. Alek Manoah is still a rookie despite the good start to his career. Take the White Sox to win the series opener. |
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08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Makeup of Sunday's postponed game and the only matinee on Monday. The Red Sox should be able to tee off on Texas lefty Kolby Allard, who has a 5.59 ERA on the road and 5.11 in day games. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi leads Sox starters in wins (10), ERA (3.91), innings (138.0), and WHIP (1.20). He has been quite a bit better at home (3.24 ERA). |
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08-22-21 | Angels v. Indians -114 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is in Williamsport for the Little League Classic so I'm not about to bet the total not knowing the field all that well. Make sure you double check if you look at those weather MLB sites like I do because many of them are giving Cleveland's forecast. Frankly, this might get rained out. I don't know if I'm related to Cal Quantrill or what but it sure seems so as I manage to pick all of his games. Quantrill is generally going to give us six innings and allow three earned or fewer. The Angels might be out of gas as they haven't had a day off in a few weeks and are playing in their fifth city in a week. |
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08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -174 | 8-4 | Loss | -174 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's almost getting boring backing the Rockies at home. Why the oddsmakers don't have this north of -200 is mystifying. Rox starter Jon Gray has been better both at home and during the day. This time of year on a bad team, always back the guy pitching for a contract. |
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08-22-21 | Mariners v. Astros -186 | 6-3 | Loss | -186 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here is another ML I can't say I understand being under -200. Seattle pitcher Tyler Anderson has been pretty good since coming over from Pittsburgh in a trade, but the Astros eat lefties for lunch. On the flip side, it's Framber Valdez for Houston and Seattle, well, is not good against southpaws (3-7 in past 10). Valdez is 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA in six career games vs. the Mariners. |
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08-22-21 | Marlins v. Reds -123 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vladimir Gutierrez has been dominant lately going 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA in August and pitching five straight quality starts overall. Sandy Alcantara is also pitching well lately but he is worse on the road, just like the Marlins are. The Marlins have lost six straight games and the Reds have won seven of their last 10 games. The Reds are tied with the Padres for the second Wild Card spot right now, Jonathan India is sitting but he will probably pinch hit if there is a crucial situation. |
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08-22-21 | Braves -155 v. Orioles | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units ohn Means has allowed at least four runs in four of his six starts since returning from the IL, including nine home runs allowed in those six starts. Touki Touissant has had one bad outing but he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his other five starts. The Orioles have now lost 17 straight games while the Braves have won 8 straight games. The Braves also add the DH so they could give one of their main guys a break while keeping him in the lineup. Take the Braves. |
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08-22-21 | Giants +6 v. Browns | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Broncos v. Seahawks +5.5 | 30-3 | Loss | -117 | 59 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Raiders v. Rams +7 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OK, I am going to hang out with my wife now by the pool. But I can't not take this. Rox at just -140 against the worst road team in MLB? Sure. I could give a bunch of pitching stats but that's enough. |
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08-21-21 | Colts v. Vikings -2.5 | 12-10 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re riding yet another NFL coach who realizes the importance of winning in the preseason, Mike Zimmer. Then again, between Zimmer’s 37-16 SU and 36-17 ATS career log in games against AFC foes, including 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS in NFLX games, he commands our attention. Toss in the fact that last season’s 28-11 loss at Indy in Week Two of the regular campaign contributed to |
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08-21-21 | Lions +6 v. Steelers | 20-26 | Push | 0 | 56 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Ravens -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFLX Game of the Week The critical keys to successfully handicapping the NFL preseason |
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08-21-21 | Mariners v. Astros -142 | 1-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scary-good price on Houston at home. Frankly, I don't get it. Sometimes, I can throw stats at you, etc., but this is crazy. It's not like the Stros are starting the Lupus kid from Bad News Bears (Kelly Leak, different story). I guess it's because Houston starter Jake Odorizzi has been a bit hit or miss lately but I'll take my chances at this number. |
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08-21-21 | Royals +113 v. Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 113 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kris Bubic was hit hard last time out against the Cardinals, but that was his second time seeing the lineup in a row and he had been pitching well before that. The Cubs also tend to struggle against lefties. Keegan Thompson has been good but he should only go 2 innings or so in a bullpen game. Sal Perez is in the lineup after getting banged up yesterday, take the Royals. |
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08-21-21 | White Sox v. Rays -134 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pretty surprised this ML is so low. Dallas Keuchel is the weak link of the Chicago rotation. Stud Rays rookie Randy Arozarena (yeah, he's tech a rookie even though he dominated the 2020 postseason) is also back in the lineup for the Rays. He got Friday off. |
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08-20-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -168 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams are equally putrid on the road -- literally the same record away -- but Colorado is a monster at home. It also was off Thursday, while Arizona had to use closer Taylor Clarke for 26 pitches to hold off the Phillies, so he's probably out. Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.70 home ERA. He's countered by Mr. Shocking No-Hitter Tyler Gilbert. Tend to think things will go a tad differently in his second big-league start -- first start after no-hitters, many pitchers really struggle because of that previous high pitch count -- and first in Denver. |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +2.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KC head coach Andy Reid has struggled in Game Two of the preseason, going 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS since 2009, including 1-5 ATS if coming off a win. Reid has also struggled against NFC West division foes during these fake games, including 0-6 ATS when not taking points. Flip the script and you’ll find an Arizona squad that stands 12-5 ATS at home when not favored in Game Two of the preseason. Play the percentages. Play the Cardinals. |
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08-20-21 | White Sox v. Rays +1.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm a White Sox fan so I hope they win (and probably would go to one of these games if the Trop wasn't such a dump and in an out-of-the-way location), but the Pale Hose are basically a .500 team on the road and the Rays are an absolute juggernaut at home. Yes, Tampa starting pitcher Michael Wacha has been pretty bad lately as Larry Hartstein mentioned on Early Edge in playing a Wacha Under prop, but the Rays have a very deep bullpen and I'm guessing Wacha has an incredibly short leash. On the flip side, the White Sox's Lucas Giolito has been wildly inconsistent. Frankly, whichever team was the underdog I would have taken at +1.5 in this one. Rays it is at -150. |
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08-20-21 | Twins v. Yankees -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota rookie lefty Charlie Barnes probably will be a bit intimidated in his first-ever start at Yankee Stadium, and he was roughed up in his lone road start so far (Cincinnati). On the flip side, Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. continues to surprise and has a 1.45 home ERA. |
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08-19-21 | Patriots -1 v. Eagles | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles QB Jalen Hurts looked comfortable in his preseason debut last weekend, moving the ball efficiently down the field. So did Joe Flacco in reserve. And while New England's quarterbacks didn't have the same success as Philadelphia's, its running game did as rookie Rhamondre Stevenson went over 100 yards. The Eagles' defense still is a work in progress, and I would expect the Patriots to have a much better outcome in the second half. |
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08-19-21 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Going to jump this one early as a few books have already seen the total drop to 8 and that half-run could easily be the difference. It's Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phils, and he loves pitching during the day (1.43 ERA). Arizona's Madison Bumgarner has been one of the NL's best pitchers since the All-Star break. Educated guess: Phils All-Star catcher JT Realmuto (and maybe another regular) sits out this getaway game ahead of a big series in San Diego. |
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08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even at a big price of -160, going to take Tigers +1.5 runline as a safety net (they probably win outright) only as I believe they will be -1.5 by the morning because the Angels scratched starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has been quite good. He's headed to the injured list. In his place will be lefty Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.12). He has been decent as a reliever this year but awful starting (7.22 ERA). The Tigers are five games over .500 vs. southpaws -- have won their past four -- and their rookie pitcher, Matt Manning, has been much better at home. |
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08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -155 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On Monday, the Dodgers did not light up the scoreboard, scoring just two runs against Pittsburgh. After completing a six-game road trip and a late Sunday flight from New York, that offensive struggle was expected. On Tuesday, L.A.'s bats should be back in order against the struggling Pirates and pitcher Will Crowe. Since the money line price is heavy, take the better price with the run line. Play the Dodgers. |
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08-17-21 | Padres -105 v. Rockies | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Amidst several injuries, the Padres will start Matt Strahm as an opener for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies. He likely won’t pitch beyond a couple of innings, lessening the impact of his high ERA (8.44). Although the Rockies have been effective at home, pitcher German Marquez has struggled since the All-Star break. Take the Padres at even money. |
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08-17-21 | Brewers -152 v. Cardinals | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On Tuesday, the Brewers start their third straight road series, at St. Louis. Pitching for the Cardinals will be Adam Wainwright, who is coming off a complete game shutout over the Pirates. He’s also been magnificent against the Brewers, winning four of his last five starts. But I expect yesterday’s off day to be beneficial for Milwaukee, led by pitcher Corbin Burnes. Take the Brewers. |
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08-17-21 | Angels v. Tigers -129 | 8-2 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Could be history tonight as Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is one homer shy of 500 career. The Tigers were off Monday and are 7-1 in their past eight following an off day, but this is more about fading the Angels, who are playing in their third city in three nights (Anaheim, New York, Detroit), and their pitcher, Dylan Bundy. He is 2-9 with 6.21 ERA in 17 starts this year and 1-6 with a 7.48 ERA in night games. I expect this ML to rise a bit during the day. |
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08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -162 | 2-1 | Loss | -162 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have now lost 12 straight games and they are 21-41 on the road. They are 1-15 since the trade deadline and Kyle Hendricks was hit hard by the Reds the last time he faced them, and hit hard by the Brewers in his last start. Vladimir Gutierrez is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in August and he pitched well against the Cubs both times he faced them this season. The Reds didn’t need to use any of their best relievers last night and now they are just 1.5 games out of the Wild Card. As long as we keep getting a ML under -200 against the Cubs, we are taking it. Especially when they’re on the road. |
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08-17-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -113 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are on fire right now but the Red Sox have owned this matchup so far this season. This will be the first matchup since the trade deadline and with the Yankees just 1.5 games back, you know Yankee Stadium will be rockin. Jordan Montgomery has faced the Red Sox three times this season and was one out away from three quality starts. Tanner Houck has been good but he struggles with walks and he doesn’t get deep into games. Take the value on the Yankees at home. |
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08-16-21 | Mets +189 v. Giants | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets are in for a challenge against the Giants. On Sunday night, they were trounced 14-4 at home by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a prime-time spot. Now they travel across the country to face the best team in majors. Look for a better effort from New York, which has been priced based on its underachieving play since the All-Star break. Play the Mets. |
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08-16-21 | Padres v. Rockies +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We've said this over and over, but no team is better at home on the runline than Colorado. I get you can't really favor the Rockies over a very good Padres team, but I'll happily take +1.5 at only -125. San Diego pitcher Ryan Weathers has been absolutely obliterated in his past three starts overall and has a 9.00 ERA in three outings vs. Colorado -- which is above .500 vs. lefties. Rox starter Antonio Senzatela is nothing special but always pitches better in Denver. The Friars are 1-5 in their past six as road favorites. |
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08-16-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Should the Indians even be underdogs? I'm not sure they should, but I'll take the +1.5 runline gift behind Cal Quantrill. While the Tribe lost his last outing, it wasn't Quantrill's fault as he allowed just two earned over six -- his sixth straight start allowing two earned or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Griffin Jax has a 6.14 ERA at home. The Twins are just 3-10 in their past 13 following a win. |
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08-16-21 | A's v. White Sox +102 | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel makes his first start against a non-divisional opponent since before the All-Star break. Expect that to be beneficial for Keuchel, as he has recorded just one win since June 15. Back the White Sox as they bounce back after having lost four of their previous five contests. |
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08-16-21 | Braves -160 v. Marlins | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves continue their road trip with the opener of a three-game series in Miami. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball as it has won 10 of 12, a stretch that has catapulted the team into first place in the National League East. Expect the momentum to continue as the Marlins four-game winning streak comes to a halt. |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers -172 v. Mets | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Max Scherzer has been excellent since coming to the Dodgers and may have a bit more on his fastball today as his last start was only 3.1 innings due to rain. In his career at Citi Field, he is 9-2 with a 2.03 ERA. New York's Carlos Carrasco has not been great in his three outings after missing a ton of time with a torn hamstring. Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner is back in the starting lineup after a groin injury kept him out a few games (did pinch-hit Saturday). |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -169 | 5-3 | Loss | -169 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox thrive against lefties and face Yanks southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. He had largely been a great rotation fill in but has been a bit shaky of late and his road ERA is two points higher than at Yankee Stadium. Chicago's Lucas Giolito has allowed two earned or fewer in five of his past six. |
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08-14-21 | Blue Jays -134 v. Mariners | 3-9 | Loss | -134 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday featured one of the strangest ninth innings on the year in MLB between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Seattle stole the win as big underdogs with a bases-loaded, walk-off victory. Yet, on Saturday night look for the Blue Jays to snap out of their two-game funk of three runs or less against lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Play the Blue Jays. |
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08-14-21 | Bengals +6 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 97 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The motivation edge in this contest is clear. The invading Bengals bring plenty while the host Bucs have next to none. That’s been the case for defending Super Bowl champions, who have been money burners when laying points during the preseason, going 45-62-2 ATS since 1983, including 4-14 ATS since 2011. Then there is Tampa head coach Bruce Arians and his 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS career mark when laying points at home in these exhibition contests. We doubt seriously if we’ll see Tom Brady tonight, yet fully expect to see Joe Burrow operating behind a new offensive line as Cincy looks to meld together ASAP, knowing the Bengals are 4-1 SUATS versus NFC South foes in the preseason since 2011. And finally, game one preseason favorites of 6 or more points are 10-5 SU but only 5-10 ATS. |
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08-14-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -134 | 7-5 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am trying to figure out if there may be a hangover from that incredible Field of Dreams game. Unprecedented obviously. So I'll just take the Sox here because Dylan Cease has been so good at home and the Yanks are still without all the players why we bet against them on Thursday (and nearly had a stroke). Rare sellout on South Side and I do think that matters slightly. |
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08-14-21 | Cardinals +105 v. Royals | 9-4 | Win | 105 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The sporadic St. Louis Cardinals surprisingly have the second best win streak in MLB at four. To reach at fifth straight win, Jon Lester must overcome his woeful first two starts as a Cardinal. Expect a lot of runs as St. Louis drew five walks and scored five runs against Royals pitcher Brad Keller last Saturday. Take the team with momentum in St. Louis. |
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08-14-21 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No coach in the league makes winning a priority during the preseason more than John Harbaugh, especially right out of the gate. His outstanding 7-0 SUATS ledger at home in preseason openers – and the Black Birds’ 5-0 SUATS record in preseason openers when facing NFC South foes – confirms it. On the flip side, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton enters with a cold hand in the preseason, as evidenced by his 7-14 SU and 6-15 ATS mark in his last twenty-one preseason contests. Consider also that Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is 17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS in the preseason since 2016. |
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08-14-21 | Cubs v. Marlins -150 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If you listen (watch? not a tech guy) the Early Edge, you know I am Cubs Fade central. They will obviously win a game or two and burn us but will still be super profitable fading the rest of the way. Won't get prices much lower than this. I don't really see that happening here. Marlins pitcher Zach Thompson has a 2.45 home ERA. |
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08-14-21 | Broncos v. Vikings +2.5 | 33-6 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mike Zimmer has coached the Vikings for seven preseasons, and he's won his opening game in all seven en route to putting together an impressive 20-5 record overall. And yet we're catching a point at home here, likely due to Minnesota's so-so depth behind Kirk Cousins while Denver brings in two fringe NFL starters batting to be named QB1. But it's not like the Vikings were stacked at QB in those previous 20 wins for Zimmer, so I'm trusting the excellent coach to give us a win here. |