Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
9* Celtics (BLOCKBUSTER) I think the Celtics not only win this game, but do so by a sizeable margin. The Bulls are 5-4 and the Celtics are 4-3. Chicago is 2-2 on the road and Boston is 2-1 at home. The Bulls are off a 106-88 home win over Charlotte, but with a tough upcoming road game North of the border on Sunday, I expect the visitors to get caught looking ahead. Boston is coming off a 114-113 OT road loss in Cleveland. With a game at New York tomorrow night, I expect the Celtics to take care of business here on their home floor. Chicago is still dealing with several key injury issues. The role players got the better of an injured Hornets team, but I expect Boston to take advantage here; all signs point to a blowout, so lay the points with the Celtics! AAA Sports |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 112-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* Pistons (ASSASSIN) I like the way this one sets up for the Pistons. Cleveland is off a 114-113 upset OT home win over the Celtics, and it now hits the road for five straight. After this game in Detroit though it hits the West coast for games against the Lakers, Clippers, Kings and Warriors. Can anyone say "look-ahead" spot for this young and overachieving Cavs team? Listen, Donovan Mitchell is a great player, but the Pistons won't be going down without a fight here. Detroit is off back-to-back losses in Milwaukee. They lost 116-91 on Wednesday, but previous to that fell 110-108 as a 13.5-point underdog. I think the Pistons catch Cleveland here at the right tie, as I expect the Cavs to be already planning for their road-trip. While the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with the Pistons! AAA Sports |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
10* Texans (ASSASSIN) We've had some pretty terrible Thursday night matchups so far this season, so I'm a little unsure what to think about this one. On one hand the Eagles have been phenomenal, as they come in at 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. And then we have the Houston Texans, who no one predicted would do anything this year, and everyone was right, as they're just 1-5-1 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread. The Texans though have been competitive most weeks at least for bettors, and I think that'll be the case again this week. Now of course Philadelphia can't afford to take the foot off the gas, but off the 35-13 home win over Pittsburgh on the short week, I think a small mental letdown isn't out of the realm of possibility for Philly here; especialy with a bye week next week, followed by a game at home against Washignton. I think Davis Mills will have some opportunities in the second half, as I just cant see Philadelphia running the score up in this one. The Eagles will be happy running the ball throughout here, as the Texans are 31st against the run on the defensive side. This is too many points to be giving up on the road on the national stage; no outright, but closer than expected, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 229.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER Denver/OKC (NW DIV. TOY) These teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but I expect this divisional battle to finally be a much more defensive battle. Oklahoma City is 4-3. It comes in on fire, having won and covered in four straight. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is significant to note here as OKC has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. With a couple nights off before a game at Milwaukee, the young Thunder will have to be careful to not get caught looking ahead. But with Denver coming to town, that's unlikely. The Nuggets will be out to rebound after their 121-110 road loss to the Lakers. Expect an intense battle here early on in the season between these division rivals, but a contest that ultimately does fall well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* OVER App State/Coastal Carolina (TOW) App State is 5-3 and on the cusp of eligibility. It's favored by three here and I do expect the Mountaineers to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish as they try to run down eligibility with a victory. Coastal Carolina won't be rolling over. It's 7-1 and it has bigger plans for the rest of its season. A victory here over App State would just add to their resume. App State has the 20th ranked run game in the nation, averaging 208.3 yards per game. It's won three of its last four, outscoring its competition 133-20. QB CHase Brice has 22 TD's and just four INT's. CC is coming off a 24-13 road win over Marshall, but previous to that allowed 49 points in a loss to ODU. CC has a balanced offense though that can keep pace with the visiting side, ranked 46th in the nation in passing and 47th in rushing. QB Grayson McCall has 19 TD's and just one INT. These teams played to a lower-scoring duel last year, but all signs point to these competent QB's playing the starring role this season; this number is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies +1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -172 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Phillies RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Phillies offer great value here as an underdog at home. I GET that the Astros are a great team. They're experienced and filled with depth. The Phillies are filled with talent and they have their veteran ace on the hill to take care of business. These teams are evenly matched, but "momentum" is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports, and it's one in which I feel that the oddsmakers can at times have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. The Phillies have a clear home field advantage, and I expect them to, at the very least, keep Game 4 competitive throughout. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters and bullpens a "wash" at this point. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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11-02-22 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Leafs puckline (EAST-CONF GOM) I expect Toronto to not only win tonight, but to do so by a sizeable margin. Philadelphia is 5-2-2, and Toronto is 4-4-2. The Flyers are 8-1 on the puckline this year though, while the Leafs are 1-9 on the puckline. The law of averages is flawed in many ways, but I've always felt that lop-sided numbers have a way of naturally correcting themselves over the short, the mid and the long-term. More than anything though, this is a great situational play. The Flyers come in here dog tired after their 1-0 OT loss at New York just last night. Toronto has had a couple nights off after a 4-3 OT loss at Anaheim. The Leafs have a tough stretch of upcoming games here: Boston, Carolina, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Pittsburgh and New Jersey after this. So far the Leafs have disappointed on the offensive end, but the overall situation here points finally to a lop-sided blowout here for Toronto; the play is the Leafs on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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11-02-22 | Wizards +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Wizards (ASSASSIN) I think this is a fantastic spot for Washington. Outright win? Possible, but this one will be close in my opinion. These teams just played in Washington on Halloween and the 76ers won 118-111. Washington plays with revenge, and it's lost three straight ATS, which is significant to note here as the Wiz are actually 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. Washington plays tough defensively, as opponent are shooting 43.5 percent against them, which is fourth best in the NBA. They're not going to make it easy on the home side. I expect a small mental letdown here. Joel Embiid was out in the last game, and he'll be out again here. Look for Washington to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is Washington! AAA Sports |
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11-01-22 | Devils v. Canucks +109 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
10* CANUCKS (NON-CONF GOM) Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports and it's one in which the oddsmakers often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line at times in my opinion. And that's the case here. The Canucks infamously opened up this season by losing their first four games, in each they had at least a two-goal lead, and then went on to lose. Vancouver finally got its act together with a 5-4 road win over the Kraken, and then the following night they destroyed Pittsburgh at home by a score of 5-1. This Canucks team has just been the victim of circumstance at the start of the season, a series of unfortunate events. New Jersey is 6-3 after a 7-1 home destruction of Columbus. Now hitting the road for a tough Western swing, I believe the "hungrier" home side is the correct call here. The oddsmakers are now slow in recognizing how well Vancouver is playing, so let's take advantage; the play is indeed on the Canucks! AAA Sports |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Phillies (GOW) Philadelphia did what it set out to do over the first two games in Houston, and that was to earn a "split." The Phillies have enjoyed a home field advantage throughout the Playoffs, and I believe they'll ride the wave of emotion to another big victory here in Game 3 as well. The weather postponed yesterday's game and we have a new starter going for the home side. I say the overall situation favors the home side. Ranger Suarez goes for Philly, and he finished 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA in the regular season, and he's 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. will go again for Houston, he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in the regular season and he's 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in the playoffs. Philadelphia is 5-0 at home, and now the Astros are going to get a little taste of the craziness here at home; while I do think the outright is possible, I also believe we're getting unreal value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace; the play is Philadelphia on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* UNDER Warriors/Heat (NON-CONF TOM) These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I expect a much more defensive affair here finally on Tuesday. Golden State is just now just 3-4 after falling 128-114 at Detroit. Interestingly, the Warriors have seen the total go "over" the number in all seven of their games so far this season. And that fact, in my professional opinion, has helped in driving today's total a few points higher than it normally would be. After their disastrous outing against the lowly Pistons, I expect Golden State to play much tougher defensively this evening. The Heat are only averaging 108 PPG this year, so the last thing they'll want to do is turn this into a "track meet" with the highest scoring team in the league. Considering all of the above information, I do indeed feel this number is too high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals are coming off a 35-17 win over the Falcons last week, posting 537 yards of offense, while limiting ATL to just 214. Cleveland though comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide, most recently falling 23-20 to the Ravens last weekend. The Browns are 2-5 and are in desperate need of a victory. Ja'Marr Chase won't be playing for the Bengals today, so that's a huge blow to the offense. It'll make Cinncy much more one-dimensional. The Browns have been allowing 26.6 PPG, but they catch a break this week. What happens if Cleveland is 2-8 by the time that DeShaun Watson is available to play? They'll already be eliminated from playoff contention, so will they want to put their prize QB in harms way for no reason? Cleveland's offense is ranked sixth overall and I think Nick Chubb and company will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover down the stretch; while the outright is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-31-22 | Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 229 | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* UNDER Pistons/Bucks (EAST-CONF TOW) Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring affair here. The Bucks are 5-0 SU/ATS and appear to be the "cream of the crop" in the Eastern Conference right now. Detroit is off an impressive 128-114 home win over Golden State and has now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, and in six of its seven games this year. That's despite only averaging 112.3 PPG, ranked 22nd. Detroit comes in fatigued here though and as a massive double-digit underdog. I don't see the Bucks running up the score here, because I don't think they'll have to. They've been off since a 123-115 home win over the Hawks. Milwaukee will have a night off and these teams play again here on Wednesday. Look for the Bucks to control the pace of this one and then look for this total to fall "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Jets +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
8* Jets PUCKLINE (SPECIAL) Winnipeg plays with revenge here after a 5-2 home loss to Vegas last week. Note that the Jets are 6-2 in their last eight in trying to avenge a two goals or greater home loss against an opponent. The Jets are 5-3 and the Knights are 7-2. The Jets come to town of a 3-2 OT win at Arizona, while Las Vegas is off a 4-0 win over Anaheim. With a night off before a tough five-game Eastern road swing after this evening, I believe Las Vegas could get caught "looking ahead." That's going to leave the back door open here for a much tighter game than what this Las Vegas line is suggesting in my opinion; the savvy call is to grab Winnipeg on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Knicks +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* Knicks (ASSASSIN) The Knicks are coming off a tough, but competitive loss to the Bucks on Friday, falling 119-108. I think they'll come in "under the radar" here on Sunday and catch the overacheiving Cavaliers off guard. Cleveland is coming off an epic 132-123 OT win over Boston, and I say it has a predictable letdown here after that emotional win. Donovan Mitchell has gotten out to a strong start for the Cavs, and while Cleveland does have plenty of talent, it's still thin when compared to the top teams in the East. Previous to the loss to Milwaukee, the Knicks beat Charlotte 134-131 in OT. I expect this one to be decided by whichever team has it hands on the ball last, so that means that I'm going to grab up all these points; the play is the Knicks! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 22 m | Show |
10* Rams (NFC WEST GOM) The 3-4 San Francisco 49ers are off a 44-23 home loss to Kansas City. LA is off a 24-10 win over Carolina here at home two weeks ago. Now rested and ready to attack, I think the defending champs are the correct call here in this one. The 49ers got Christian McCaffrey just before last week's game, but he was pretty ineffective. LA will look to take advantage of a defense that conceded 529 yards and an offense that committed three turnovers. The 49ers have had the Rams' number in the past, winning seven of the last eight SU, but now the tables have turned in my opinion. This is an immediate revenge scenario as well, as San Francisco won earlier in the year at home by a score of 24-9. The Rams have made adjustments since then though and the 49ers now have more questions than answers, especially with Jimmy G under center. This Rams' defense is under-rated, and last week the 49ers' defense was exposed; while the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with the Rams! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOY) The Patriots come to town as the more desperate side in this divisional showdown. I think that Bill Bellichick will bring out his best playbook calling today and I expect that to be enough to get the better of the overachieving Jets this weekend. After destroying the Browns 38-15 in Cleveland, New England fell flat in last week's 33-14 home loss to the desperate Bears. The Jets on the other hand won and covered as the favorite on the road in a 16-9 victory at Denver to move to 5-2 and in second in the AFC East, still looking up at the mighty Buffalo Bills. Mac Jones is back under center for New England and I expect him to have his best game of the season so far. New England is only allowing 345.3 yards and 20.9 PPG this season. Jones has uncharacteristically struggled this year. The Jets' offense hasn't been great, as they average only 331.3 YPG, which is ranked 21st. Zach Wilson is not better than Jones in my opinion. The Jets' defense has been good though, allowing 19.6 PPG. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one, and in scenarios like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog in my opinion; clearly the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points with the Patriots! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Jaguars | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Broncos (SPECIAL) The Broncos are 2-5 and last in the AFC West. Despite their struggles, I think they'll find a way to beat Trevor Lawrence and the inconsistent Jaguars. Denver is coming off a 16-9 home loss to the Jets, where backup QB Brett Rypien threw for 225 yards, zero TD's and one INT. Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as the Jags are just 2-5 and on a four-game losing streak after choking to the Giants at home by a score of 23-17 last weekend. Lawrence was just 22 of 43 for 310 yards, zero TD's and no INT's. Yes, Russell Wilson has struggled to this point, but I think the veteran has his best game of the season so far. The Broncos have the much better defense, allowing just 16.4 PPG. Jacksonville allows 19.6. Look for the veteran's on Denver to finally lead this team to a solid win and cover; that said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* UNDER Hawks/Bucks (BLOWOUT) While both sides have been involved in several higher-scoring games lately, I am predicting a much tighter, and lower-scoring defensive battle here finally on Saturday. Atlanta is 4-1 and Milwaukee is 4-0. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" the number in three straight after their latest 136-112 win over Detroit, but that's significant to note here as ATL has in fact seen the totalg go "under" in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Bucks are off a 119-108 win over the Knicks. With back-to-back upcoming home games against the Pistons, Milwaukee won't be lookihg past its potentially dangerous opponent today. The Hawks are averaging 117.6 PPG, but the Bucks will be looking to slow the pace of this one down from the outset. Milwaukee averages 111 PPG. The Bucks get the job done defensively here in the early going this season and I expect this contest to be a very defensive battle; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies on the runline in Game 1. While Game 1 flew well "over" the posted number of 6.5, I believe we'll see a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "duel" here in Game 2. Zach Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.51 WHIP so far in the playoffs for the Phillies, while Framber Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA for the Astros. Terrible starts for both starters yesterday, but let's not assume that these two red-hot starters here on Saturday will follow suit. Expect these two "studs" to battle into the latter frames as each sides leans on their starter today, and look for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | Top | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 125 h 21 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10 GOY) The Spartans'll be out to pull off an outright upset here after dropping four of their last five. MSU is 3-4 overall and just 1-3 in league play. Will 7-0 Michigan then come in complacent and "look past" its lowly opponent? Hammering the Spartans never gets old, but I do think this sets up as a natural "letdown" spot. Next week the Wolverines take on Rutgers. But the Spartans are running out of time and chances here. Michigan's chemistry takes a hit here in my opinion as it comes out of its bye week. Last year MSU pulled off an upset over Michigan in a similar sort of situation. Amd I calling for an outright upset again this season? Of course not. That said, this great situational play has all the makings of an against-the-spread cover of the "rocking chair" variety; grab the points, the play is Michigan State! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12 v. Tennessee | Top | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (BLOCKBUSTER) Kentucky is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility after its 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago as a 3.5 point underdog. Tennessee is already 7-0 and it has its sights set on bigger things. Tennessee annihilated Tennessee Martin 65 to 24 last weekend as a 38.5-point favorite. Will Levis has been pretty good for the Wildcats though, he actually had his best game of the season in the win over Mississippi State (finishing with a 91.1 QBR.) Running back Chris Rodriguez Junior had his best game also finishing with 197 yards on 31 carries against Mississippi State. Overall the Wildcats average 26.4 points per game, but they've been even better on the defensive side ranked in the top 15 nationally in points allowed. With Georgia on deck next week, obiously Hendon Hooker and the Volunteers have to be careful of not looking past the Wildcats. Tennessee's defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag, but the Vols don't usually have to be too sharp defensively as they're averaging 50.1 points per game, which is No. 1 in the nation. Kentucky faced a high-powered offense like this already in Ole Miss, and while the Wildcats didn't win that one, they kept the Rebels out of the end zone over the final three quarters. Levis will have some opportunities here against a sub-par Volunteer secondary; I'm not calling for an outright guys, but I think that Kentucky can keep it close! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Arkansas v. Auburn UNDER 60.5 | 41-27 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
9* under Arkansas/Auburn (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here finally on Saturday. Arkansas is now 4-3 after its 52-35 win over BYU two weeks ago. Note though that the Razorbacks have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last off a SU/ATS road victory as an underdog in which they scored 50 or more points in. I think the week off will be detrimental fo Arkansas' offense as well this week. Auburn is only averaging 22.3 PPG. The last thing the 3-4 Tigers can do is to turn this into a "track meet." They'll be looking to bounce back from a 48-34 loss at Ole Miss two weeks ago. I expect the home side to run the ball throughout while on offense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | Rockets v. Blazers OVER 224.5 | Top | 111-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* OVER Rockets/Blazers (WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF MONTH) Both teams have been involved in some tight defensive affairs to start the season, but I'm expecting a more wide-open "shootout" here finally on Friday night. Houston is 1-4, and Portland is 4-1. The Rockets are 0-3 on the road, while Portland is 2-1 at home. Houston only averages 109.8 PPG, but I expect it to open up the playbook here today and push the pace against this Blazers team that's done well on the defensive end to this point. Portland comes in averaging 113.4 PPG. It's off a 119-98 loss at home to a desperate Miami team, but that's significant to note hote, as the Blazers have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. A great situational play, the stage is now set for a high-scoring affair; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
10* Phillies RUNLINE (WS GOY) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Philadelphia on the runline option here in Game 1. This Game 1 has the "Any Given Sunday" sort of "feel" to it. The fact that the Astros are in the World Series isn't a shocker, but the Phillies path to this point has been unexpected. They had to fight to make the Wildcard, but since then they've looked unstoppable. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports (especially in the playoffs) and it's one in which I've always felt that the oddsmakers have had a hard time propertly quantifying into a line at times. And that's the case here in my opinion. Aaron Nola has been great on the road all year and he eners with a 2-1, 3.12 ERA playoff record for the Phillies, while Justin Verlander is 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA for the Astros. Verlander got crushed in his last start, while Nola has been solid throughout. Give me the red hot Wheeler and the upstart Phillies to, at the very least, earn the ATS cover on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* BYU (ASSASSIN) We're at Lavell Edwards Stadium for this one. Both teams are on the cusp of eligibility. The East Carolina Pirates are 5-3, and BYU is 4-4. But while East Carolina has won five of its last seven, the Cougars enter on a three-game losing streak. This is a pivotal game for BYU this weekend. Here is a great opponent to go against, because despite the superior record, the Pirates are still just 3-3 in their last six on the road. ECU has a great quarterback in Holton Ahlers, who has 2,435 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Pirates have been pretty good in the run game as well, averaging 165.7 yards per game. Defensively they are giving up 390.7 yards and 24.6 points per game. But as I pointed out, the Pirates definitely play better at home than on the road. And that's the case for BYU as well. The Cougars will hope a little home cooking can turn things around for them. BYU has won five of its last six at home and I'd argue that Jaren Hall has been even better than Ahlers (he has 2,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions). The ground game has been pretty good as well, averaging 148.4 yards per game. The weakness so far has been on the defensive end for sure obviously, as they allow 30.3 points and 404.9 yards per game. But if you look at East Carolina's schedule to this point, it definitely has not been the toughest. I think the Cougars are the correct call here. I think they're going to play with a major sense of desperation after three straight losses. East Carolina has its bye week after this, and that's followed by three straight really tough games to end the year (at Cincinnati, against Houston and at Temple.) Give me the hungrier and more motivated home side to finally put it all together and post a solid win and cover in this one; the play is BYU! AAA Sports |
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10-27-22 | Maple Leafs v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 106 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
10* OVER Leafs/Sharks (BLOOD-BATH) I think rather incredibly, the Leafs have not seen the total go "over" the number in any of their games so far this season. They come to San Jose with a record of 4-3. They're only averaging 2.71 GPG, while allowing 2.57. Last year the Leaf's were among the league's best on both ends of the ice. Despite their lower-scoring games to open the season, I still think it's significant to note that Toronto has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. San Jose enters at 2-7. It's coming in off a 4-2 loss to the Knights. The Sharks have seen the total go "under" in four straight. Non-conferene opponents here, we can expect a much less defensive affair, and a much more wide open battle. Expect this total to finally fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Kings UNDER 237 | Top | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
10* Grizzlies/Kings UNDER (ASSASSIN) Both of these sides have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here finally on Thursday. Memphis has actually seen the total go OVER the number in all four of its games so far this season. That includes in its 134-124 victory over the Nets last time out (note though, the Grizz have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row.) The Kings are 0-3 SU. They've been competitive in all three games. Last time out they fell 130-125 at Golden State. Look for Sacramento to double down on the defensive end tonight as it looks to finally break the slide. I'm expecting a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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10-27-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
10* RAVENS (NON-CONF GOM) The Bucs are 3-4 and the Ravens are 4-3. I think it's safe to say that neither is thrilled where they are at at this point of the season. Clearly that's the case for Tom Brady and the Bucs, who have had so many different issues to deal with since training camp. And it really doesnt appear as if things are going to get any easier for the the Bucs' super star, ESPECIALLY on the short week right? How can this short week be benefitting Brady at all right now? It's gotta just put added stress onto an already super stressful situation. This has to be is rock bottom for Brady? Losing 21-3 to the Carolina Panthers? There's no question that PJ Walker was the better quarterback on the field of play that day last weekend. I think that LaMar Jackson and the Ravens can smell the blood in the water this week. Jackson actually had his worst game of the season last week, as he completed just nine passes, and they were outgained by Cleveland 336 yards to 254. But a couple of timely scores and a Browns false start on the game tying field goal lifted them to the miraculous 23-20 victory. The Bucs are ripe for the picking here in my opinion ultimately. The offense is broken, the running game is non existent because the offensive line is in shambles. Brady was 32 of 49 for 290 yards last weekend and his average depth of target is just 7.8 this season, by far the lowest of his career.Clearly Baltimore is far from perfect, but I'm going with Jackson here to find a way to get the job done, as I definitely don't trust Brady right now; the play is the RAVENS. AAA Sports |
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10-26-22 | Heat +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* HEAT (NON-CONF GOM) Would anyone have guessed that the Heat would be 1-3 right now after four games, and the Blazers would be 4-0? Portland is also 4-0 ATS, while Miami is 0-4 ATS. The law of averages is flawed in many ways, but I've always felt that lop-sided numbers/trends have a way of naturally correcting themselves over the short, mid and the long-term. Miami is off the 98-90 home loss to rival Toronto. It simply CAN NOT afford to look past the Blazers today, because up next is a date at the defending champs tomorrow night. THat's the followed by a tricky road game against an improved Sacramento team (and that's followed by a home game against the Warriors again!) It's all hands on deck for Miami tonight. Would anyone fault Portland for having a minor letdown here after four straight victories to open the season as an underdog? All good things must come to an end. Note, ALL FOUR of Portland's victories have come against the top teams in the West as well, beating Sacramento, Phoenix (in T), the Lakers and most recently hammering the Nuggets 135-110. Now facing their first non-conference opponent of the season, this one screams "letdown" spot to me; the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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10-26-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Nuggets | 99-110 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
8* Lakers (SPECIAL) Both teams have gotten out to crummy starts, but I think this one'll be decided in the closing moments. The Lakers are 0-3 SU/ATS, and the Nuggets are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Lakers offense has struggled, but they'll look to take advantage of a Nuggets team that just gave up 135 points to the Blazers. LA's defense has been decent despite the defeats (the three losses have come against three pretty good teams as well, who have a combined 8-2 record right now.) LeBron James and Anthony Davis look good for the Lakers. If Russell Westbrook has even a mediocre showing here, the Lakers have a legit shot at winning this one outright. Nikola Jokic is always an X-Factor, but this Denver defense looks terrible right now; grab the points, the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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10-26-22 | Lightning v. Ducks +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -175 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Ducks PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance here. The Lightning appear to now finally be struggling with consistency. Once the "cream of the crop" in the Eastern Conference, the Bolts could be on the decline. They're just 3-4 coming into this one, including off a 4-2 loss at the Kings just last night. Now fatigued, they catch a 1-4 Ducks team that's had two nights off after a 5-1 defeat at Detroit. Anaheim won its opener 5-4 in OT at home, then it hit the road for five-straight road games. Now back on home ice, look for the Ducks to ride the wave of emotion and to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; lay the price, the play is Anaheim on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
10* OVER Knights/Sharks (ASSASSIN) Vegas beat Toronto by a score of 3-1 last night, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair here in the second game of the back-to-back. Fatigue won't be an issue at this point of the season for anyone, so look for the Knights to open things up here as they look to take advantage of this shaky Sharks defense. San Jose is just 2-6, but it comes in off a rare victory, a 3-0 shutout road win over the Flyers (but that's important to note here, as San Jose has seen the total go "over" the number in six of its last seven off a shutout road victory.) San Jose catches the Knights here at the right time. This is a difficult matchup for the Sharks, but a "tired" Las Vegas team on the second game of the back-to-back is about the best situation you could possibly hope for for San Jose. I expect both teams to light the lamp early and often; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-25-22 | Penguins v. Flames -140 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
8* Flames (SPECIAL) Sometimes I completely dissect a game, looking at many different factors and angles, but other times I keep it simple. KISS, keep it simple stupid! And that's the case here. There's no reason at all to overanalyze this one. Pittsburgh coes in fatigued here after a 6-3 loss in Edmonton just last night. The Flames have had two nights off after a confidence-building 3-2 OT win over Carolina. The Flames then have three whole nights off after this before another long stretch of home games. It's an ideal situational play here on Calgary, as I believe this line could/should in fact be much higher. The value here lies in laying the price; the play is Calgary! AAA Sports |
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10-25-22 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 220.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Mavs/Pels UNDER (SOUTHWEST DIVISION TOY) Both of these teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to start going the other way in this early divisional matchup. Dallas is 1-1 and is favored in this one. It's coming off an impressive 137-96 win over the Grizzlies. I expect the Mavs to keep up the aggressive defensive pressure here vs. the Pels. New Orleans is 2-1 and coming off a tiring 122-121 OT loss here at home to the Jazz a 8.5 point favorites. That total went "over" the number, because the game went to OT. The Pelicans have seen the total go "over" the number in all three games they've played in this season, which is significant to note here in our case as New Orleans has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. A great situational play early in the season, the play here is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Hurricanes v. Canucks +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
8* Canucks PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) If we looked only at the early offensive and defensive numbers with these two teams, then it's easy to see when Carolina is a big favorite on the road here. Vancouver has had the lead in every game it's played in so far this season, but it enters now desperate to snap its 0-4-2 start. The Canes are 3-1-1. Carolina lost 3-2 in OT at Calgary in its last game, and I'm expecting a similar style of tight battle here on the West Coast as well. The Canes have three whole nights off after this and return home, so this is a natural "look ahead" spot. Vanouver is off the humbling 5-1 home loss to the Sabres. I don't think the Canucks are as bad as they've shown in the early going; while the outright win is possible, I'll lay the larger price here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; a great situatinal play on the Canucks on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* BEARS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams could really use a victory here. Will the Patriots go up early, and then keep the foot on the gas from start to finish? I say no way. I think this game will be decided in the trenches, and by field position. Running and protecting the ball. The Bears are 2-4 and the Patriots are 3-3. It's all hands on deck for Chicago after three straight losses. New England has looked great over the last two weeks, but I think it'll come out flat here after last week's 38-15 victory at Cleveland. So far the Bears are only averaging 15.5 PPG, but they'll have to open up the playbook here and be the aggressors. Justin Fields has 869 passing yards, four TD's and five INT's. The defense for the Bears is ranked 11th, allowing 19.7. New England allows 18.8, while averaging 23.5 of its own. Bailey Zappe has filled in for Mac Jones admirably, but the starter will likely be back under center tonight. Whoever is under center, I expect conservative game calling from Bellichick this evening. I say Chicago throws its best shot and while that may not be good enough to win this game outright, it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded in this one; grab the points, the play is Da Bears! AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Pacers v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the 76ers. The Pacers are 1-2 and the 76ers are 0-2. Neither team has gotten out to a great start, but I look for the 76ers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish in this favorable matchup. The Pacers are off a 124-115 home win over Detroit on Saturday, but I believe they'll stumble here in the opener of this difficult five game road trip. Mostly more than anything, I absolutely expect the 76ers to come out fired up here after two lacklustre games to open the season. The good news is that James Harden looks locked in early for Philly. This is a matchup that favors Joel Embiid and the home side and I expect them to take advantage; lay the points, because I look for the 76ers to win in blowout fashion! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Suns +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Suns (BLOOD-BATH) The Suns are 1-1 and the Clippers are 2-0. Phoenix most recently fell 113-111 at Portland in OT as a five-point favorite on Friday night. The Clippers came away with the tight 111-109 road win over the Kings just last night, and I believe they'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back. Phoenix actually had to erase a 17-point halftime deficit in the loss to the Blazers, but just couldn't get the job done in the end. But with a couple games under their belts, and here facing the undefeated Clippers, I expect Phoenix to be at its best this evening. LA though could very likely rest some of its key players here in the B2B scenario. While I clearly think the outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Phoenix! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (BLOCKBUSTER) The Jets are not only 4-2 ATS, but they're also 4-2 SU. New York is off an epic 27-10 road win at Green Bay, but I believe it'll have a predictable step back this weekend in Denver. Russell Wilson is out for the Broncos, which is a GREAT thing in my estimation. The pivot has struggled with his new team, and now enters Brett Rypien, who will be given the green light here. The Broncos are still excelling on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 16.5 PPG. I say that Zach Wilson and the Jets finally stumble here; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) With a chance to close out this series and head to the World Series, I like Zach Wheeler and the Phillies to dig deep here and deliver the goods. Yu Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in the playoffs, while Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA. "Very excited. Obviously been pitching on the road, but I'm very excited to pitch here in front of these fans," Wheeler said. "They're happy, they're hungry, and they're excited. So it's going to be a lot of fun." Honestly, these starters are evenly matched, but I'll give the slight nod to Wheeler because of the home field advantage. And right now during the playoffs, that's going to be the difference-maker today. This crowd is going to be electric and I expect Philadelphia to ride the wave of emotion; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Washington Commanders +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
10* COMMANDERS (ASSASSIN) I think the Packers on the road is the incorrect call here. The Jets demolished Green Bay by a score of 27-10 last weekend, and I think that Taylor Heinickie and the home side can take advantage as well. Green Bay is just 3-3 now. Washington is 2-4 after its 12-7 win at Chicago last weekend. The offense has been inconsistent for Washington, but the defense has been its strength. Aaron Rodgers has struggled against defenses like this already and I think he'll be on the run once again this Sunday afternoon. I don't think the Giants or Jets are even that good. Certainly their defenses aren't. Green Bay is averaging only 17.3 PPG. Here's Heinickie about stepping in for Carson Wentz: "Starting 15 games last year, I feel a lot more comfortable, a lot more confident in what I need to do to win and what not to do to lose.” The majority of bets are on Green Bay, but the majority of the money is on Washington; lets follow the sharp money in this one! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* COLTS (ASSASSIN) Divisional contests are always the most important, and they almost always "mean more" to the home side. Every now and then there's an exception to that "rule" though and that's the case here today in my opinion. Both teams have battled back from shaky starts and enter at 3-2. Indianapolis enters off a 34-27 win over Jacksonville. The Titans barely held on for a tight 21-17 victory over Washington. So far the Colts are averaging 17.2 PPG, while allowing 20.2, while Tennessee is averaging 19.2 PPG, and allowing 23.6. These teams are almost identical in every way, but I'd argue that the Colts have looked a lot better over the last two outings. Especially their offense. Indianapolis lost to Tennessee 24-17 in Week 4 and I expect the revenge factor to play a crucial part here as well; while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
10* Jaguars (ASSASSIN) The bookmakers are just begging people to take the Giants here. The vast majority of the bets are on New York, but I'm going the other way here and predicting that that desperate home side will not only win, but win big. I also expect a letdown here finally from the over-acheiving Giants who enter at 5-1, fresh off an upset win at home over Baltimore. The Giants will have to be careful to not get caught looking ahead here to their game at Seattle next week. At 2-4 the Jaguars simply NEED to win this game. Jacksonville actually enters off three straight losses. Trevor Lawrence could easily have a winning record right now if not for an unlucky bounce here or there. This is do or die for the home side and I expect that to the be the difference-maker; lay the points, the play is Jacksonville! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
8* Browns (DESTRUCTION) It's true that divisional contest always mean the most. And for the most part, those games MEAN the most to the home side. There are exceptions to that rule every now and then though, and this is one of them. Both of these teams are in dire need of a win, but Cleveland more so at 2-4. Baltimore is 3-3. The Browns are off a 38-15 loss at home to a surging New England team, but they always matchup well aaainst the Ravens. It's a crucial part of the season for the Browns, who have a tough home game vs. division rival Cincinnati next week. Baltimore has more questions than answers right now after last week's 24-20 collapse as a 5.5-point favorite. To make matters worse for the Ravens, they have a short turnaround this week with a Thursday night game at Tampa Bay, followed by a road contest at New Orleans. I think the Browns' run game keeps them in this one; grab the points, the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Washington v. California UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
10* UNDER Washington/Cal (ASSASSIN) Washington has seen the total go "over" the number in all seven of its games this season, inlcuding in its 49-39 win over Arizona last weekend. The Huskies are averaging 42.1 PPG, but I think that they'll finally come back down to Earth here vs. 3-3 Cal. Washington is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility. The Golden Bears are off a 20-13 loss to Colorado. Cal plays with "revenge" here, as Washington has won seven of the last ten in this series. Washington's defense is pretty good, allowing just 28.6 PPG. The Bears are even better though, conceding just 21.7 PPG. The "under" is 4-1 in the last five Bears games overall, and it's also 4-1 in the Bears last five following an ATS loss. Look for a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" once the smoke finally clears form this one! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Clippers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* Kings (ASSASSIN) I think this is a great "situational" play on the Kings. Sacramento lost its opener 115-108 as a 3-point favorite at home to Portland, but I think it bounces back here. The Clippers are off a satisfying 103-97 win over the Lakers in their opener, but with a home game against the Suns tomorrow night, I believe they'll classically get caught "looking ahead" to that one. LA has a great roster, but stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be used sparingly at the start of the season, after each comes back from a signficant injury. D'Aaron Fox and Damontas Sabonis are the correct call here at home. Mike Brown didn't play his starters a lot in the season opening loss, but we can expect a heavy dose today; while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let's grab the points, the play is Sacramento! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Utah State +5 v. Wyoming | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
8* Utah State (SPECIAL) Utah State is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS, while Wyoming if 4-3 SU/ATS. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Aggies come in with some momentum, first they beat Air Force 34-27 two weeks ago, then it beat Colorado State 17-13 last weekend. Utah State's offensive and defensive numbers are somewhat skewed after a few early blowouts. The Aggies average 19.9 PPG, and allow 31.7. Wyoming is off a 27-14 road win over New Mexico as a 3-point favorite. Wyoming only averages 23.3 PPG, while allowing 387 yards of offense per contest. Utah State's ground game is firing on all cylinders and its defense just held Colorado State to just 13 points. While the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Aggies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Padres v. Phillies -105 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BLOOD-BATH) Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports, and that's especially true in the playoffs. I often find that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying this factor into their process, and that's DEFINITELY the case here in Game 4 in my professional opinion. Despite Bailey Falter having not thrown since October 5th, I still think he has an advantage here over his counterpart Mike Clevinger. Falter went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA in the regular season. He tossed one scoreless inning vs. the Astros back on October 5th. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA during the regular seaosn and he's 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in the playoffs (gave up six hits and five runs over two innings to the Dodgers in his only start.) Even Bob Melvin has his doubts: "We'll see how it goes, take it batter to batter," Melvin said of his starting pitcher tonight. A great price on the surging home side here, so lay the short juice, because the play is indeed on the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Boston College +21 v. Wake Forest | Top | 15-43 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOY) BC is 2-4 and Wake is 5-1. I think the Eagles will keep this one much tighter though than what this spread is suggesting. BC has lost five of its last six on the road, but QB Phil Jurkovec keeps his team competitive. He has 1,335 passing yards, ten touchdowns and six interceptions. The defense is allowing 29 points and 371.7 yards per game. Wake Forest comes in confident after winning 12 of its last 13 at home. After going up early though, I can't see the Demon Deacons keeping the foot on the gas in the second half with a road game at Louisville up next. Sam Hartman has been great, he has 1,442 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only two INT's. The weakness though comes on the defensive end though, and that's where I like Jurkovec this weekend. Wake allows 25.5 PPG and 385.3 yards overall. BC has faced a tough schedule to this point. Its numbers are a bit skewed. Am I suggesting that BC will win this game outright somehow?! Of course not, but as I've outlined, the stage is definitely set for a tighter battle than most would expect; grab the points, the play is Boston College! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Nuggets +5 v. Warriors | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
10* NUGGETS (BOB) I like Denver to bounce back after its poor 123-102 road loss at Utah as a 6.5 point favorite. Look for the Nuggets to make the necessary adjustments to be much more competitive vs. the defending champs. I think the Nuggets got caught "looking ahead" to this Friday game. Golden State won and covered over the Lakers in their opener. When Denver gave up fewer than 111.0 points last season, it went 25-17 against the spread and 31-11 overall. Last season, Golden State had the league’s 15th-ranked scoring team (111.0 PPG), while Denver had the 14th-ranked defense in terms of points per game (110.4). Look for a very tight and competitive game, one that's decided in the final moments; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* UNDER Wings/Hawks (BLOWOUT) These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Detroit is off a 5-4 OT loss at home to the Kings, but with three whole nights off between games, I expect the visiting side to double down on the defensive end this evening. The Wings are 2-0-1 and have a big opportunity to build on their record facing the 1-2 Blackhawks. Chicago has been off for five whole days after a 5-2 win at San Jose. Chicago lost its first two games, but returns home for the first game of the season. The Wings have two decent goaltenders in Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso. Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock share duties for Chicago. They catch a break here facing this Wings' offense. These are two teams in need of a win at the start of the season and I expect this competitive atmosphere to translate into more of a defensive affair; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Jazz v. Wolves -8 | 132-126 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show | |
8* Wolves (DESTRUCTION) I like to watch the first two weeks of action before really unloading in the NBA. In fact, that's the case for the NBA, College hoops and the NHL as well. To begin with at the start of the season, I like to be contrarian. If the majority of the public goes one way, I'll more than likely go the other. I also look for what I deem to be really great "situational" plays. And in my opinion, this is a great early season situational play. The Jazz are off the upset 123-102 home win over Denver as a 6.5-point underdog, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Minnesota beat OKC by a score of 115-108 in its Opener, but it did not cover the big 11-point spread. Tonight's spread is much more manageable and I believe the deeper home side will indeed keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one; lay the points, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UAB is 4-2, most recently off the 34-20 win over Charlotte. Dylan Hopkins had 231 yards, a TD and an INT. They average 34.5 PPG, while allowing just 17.3. DeWayne McBride has been unstoppable on the ground so far with 778 yards and 11 rushing TD's thus far. WKU is 4-3 and off a 35-17 road win over MTSU. Austin Reed went 32 of 49 for 278 yards, two TD's and an INT. It averages 40.4 PPG, while allowing 22.7. WKU has played the weaker competition to this point, and its offensive and defensive numbers have to be called into question with a 73-0 win over FIU in Week 3. I think UAB is the better overall team. Definitely its defense is. Look for the BLAZERS to, at the very least, deliver with the ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOOD-BATH) I had a play on Philadelphia in Game 1, but I passed in Game 2. For Game 3, I'm back on Philly. The Padres evened the series at 1-1 with an 8-5 win in Game 2. Philadelphia actually had a four-run lead in Game 2, but wound up losing. I'd call these starting pitchers a "wash." The Padres hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in the postseason, while Ranger Suarez is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA for the Phillies. In his only start against the Friars this year Suarez gave up just two runs over eight innings and struck out ten. I like Suarez at home and I believe the Phillies will rally at home after the Game 2 loss. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10* SAINTS (GOW) The Cardinals have lost four of their last six overall, and three straight at home. They're averaging less than 20 PPG. Their run game is "OK," but they lack a passing offense with Murray as QB. DeAndre Hopkins does return from suspension this week, but I don't think he'll make much of an impact having sit out the last six weeks. New Orleans has been strong against the pass, allowing less than 200 yards per game through the air while on the road. That turns Arizona really one-dimensional still. New Orleans on the other hand has averaged over 150 rushing yards per game. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Wild | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* Canucks PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN) A couple of 0-3 teams collide here. Vancouver has had a two-goals lead in every game its played in so far, but it comes to town winless still. The Wild are most recently off a 6-3 loss to the Avs. Both teams have received suspect goaltending, but I still like Thatcher Demko in this spot for the Canucks, he's 0-3-0 with a 4.48 GAA. Minnesota goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is 0-1-- with an 8.37 GAA. Vancouver could easily be 4-0 right now, except for some brutal mental lapses. I believe Vancouver plays a full three periods today though and while the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call wil be to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; the play is Minnesota on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* 76ers (NON-DIV GOM) I like the way this one sets up at home for the 76ers. I believe they'll pull away for a double-digit victory right at the end. The Bucks were decent last year. They averaged 113.9 PPG< and allowed 110.7. The 76ers lost on the road to Boston, but an immediate return to the winner's circle will be in order here. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton to open the season. Milwaukee was bad defensively on the road last year, allowing more than 111 PPG. Look for Philly to pull away down the stretch! AAA Sports |
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10-19-22 | Pelicans +3 v. Nets | Top | 130-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN) With the majority of the money and the wagers on Brooklyn, I feel we're getting great value here on Zion Williamson and the Pelicans. This Pels team is legit with CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas and Ingram. The Nets were eliminated by the Celtics in the Playoffs, but they also had a tumultuous season. KD is back, and so is Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has an entirely new line-up though, and I think much like the Lakers unfortunately, they're going to have difficulties with chemistry in the early going. New Orleans is the better, deeper team on paper. The Slim Reaper and Kyrie are probably the two best players on the floor still, but I don't think it'll be enough with McCollum directing the show for New Orleans. Clearly I feel the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points; the play is the Pelicans! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
8* LAKERS (DESTRUCTION) LA won only 33 games last year. A dysfunctional line-up and injuries were to blame. LA added Patrick Beverly, Dennis Schroeder, Lonnie Walker, Thomas Bryant, and Dwayne Bacon. Darvin Ham is the new head coach and he'll bring a much needed sense of toughness to the team. One big thing this year working in LA's favor is that big man Anthony Davis appears to be back to 100% health. He was injured most of last year. The Warriors won the Championship and could be in for a bit of a letdown this year. They enter the new season with plenty of controversy as well after Draymond Green puched Jordan Poole in the face in practice a couple of weeks ago and knocked him out cold. It's all hands on deck for LBJ, Ham and the rest of the Lakers on Opening night. Look for this one to come down to the wire and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Phillies +116 v. Padres | Top | 2-0 | Win | 116 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (NLCS GOY) These teams are similar in many regards, but I think the Phillies offer great value here as a small underdog. Zach Wheeler is 0-1 with a 2.19 ERA so far in the playoffs. He was 12-7 witha 2.82 ERA in the regular season. The Padres' Yu Darvish is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the post-season and he went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Both pitchers have had plenty of success against their opponent today in the past. Philadelphia's improved bullpen play, combined with their impressive offense in the postseason makes the visitors the correct call here in Game 1 in my opinion; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Ducks +1.5 v. Devils | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Ducks PUCKLINE (NON-CONF. GOM) I think that Anaheim offers great value here on the puckline option. The Ducks are 1-2. They're off a 6-4 loss at New York last night. Typically I avoid playing on teams who are playing the second game of a back-to-back, but that factor doesn't actually become something I worry about until after the first month of play. These professional athletes are good to go right now and I'd argue that working out all the "bugs" last night, will only help the Ducks improve this evening. Anthony Stolarz will get the call in net for the visiting side, returning to play in his hometown. He's played 63 games and owns a sharp 2.75 GAA. New Jersey has the worst offense in the NHL. That's in part to several key injuries. They're just 1-6 on the power play. Mackenzie Blackwood let in four goals on 24 shots in the Devils' loss to the Flyers and I think he'll have his hands full today as well; lay the price, the play is Anaheim on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (AFC WEST GOY) Denver is 2-3 and LA is 3-2. Clearly this is a big game for each team. Neither side has lived up to the offseasno expectations. Especially Denver. Russell Wilson signed a nearly $250 million dollar contract and his performance to this point has been very weak. The veteran will be out to reverse his fortunes here against Christian Herbert and the Chargers. So far Denver is only averaging 15 PPG, but making up for it on the other side by allowing just 16. The Chargers enter having won two straight. The Chargers score 24.4 PPG, but they've struggled defensively, conceding 27.2. That's music to Wilson's ears finally. LA routinely plays down to the level of its competition. It's hard to imagine that Wilson has fallen off his skill set this quickly. I expect to see his best game of the season so far and while I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab the points; the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-17-22 | Avalanche v. Wild UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 35 h 30 m | Show |
10* UNDER Avs/Wild (CENTRAL DIVISION TOY) The stars and the planets have aligned here for an early season play of this magnitude. Colorado is 1-1. It beat Chicago 5-2 in its Opener, and then fell 5-3 at Calgary. Both games have gone "over" the number. Minnesota will be desperate here, as it enters at 0-2. It lost 7-3 at home to the Rangers, and then 7-6 here to the Kings just last night. I expect Minnesota to risk life and limb today to try and get into shooting and passing lanes tonight as it tries to get the monkey off its back. Both teams have good starting goaltenders and backups, but neither has received very good play from those units yet. Yet, though is the word we need to concentrate on here. As I eluded to off the top, this is a great "situational" play, so whoever gets the start in net tonight, I believe the numbers and the overall situation point to a very tight defensive affair in this one; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 7 m | Show |
10* OVER Cowboys/Eagles (NFC EAST TOY) Scoring is down so far in NFL Prime Time games. Last Sunday's 19-17 win for Baltimore over Cincinnati was no exception. But I expect this lop-sided trend to start correcting itself finally here in Week 6. The Eagles are off a tight, but low-scoring 20-17 win over Arizona, while Dallas pulled away for the 22-10 win over the defending champs on their own field. Tony Pollard had a 57 yard TD run and Cooper Rush looked "OK" with 102 yards in the Cowboys' win. The Dallas defense looked good, but that was against a pathetic Rams offense, which was missing three starters on the offensive line. Now they have to travel on the road again here and I think the unit will struggle to contain this confident Eagles team. Jalen Hurts had difficulty moving the ball on the road, but I think he'll have a much easier time at home in this important divisional contest. Look for a wide-open offensive affair this weekend in Philadelphia, one that flies well "over" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
9* CHIEFS (ASSASSIN) I'm going to grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments. The Chiefs ended the Bills season last year. They were up by a field goal with less than a minute left, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs ended up winning in OT in last year's playoffs. Buffalo enters at 4-1. It comes in off the 38-3 win over Pittsburgh. The Bills average 30.1 PPG, and they have the second ranked defense, giving up 12.2 PPG. The Chiefs average 31.8 PPG, while allowing 25. KC has been involved in a couple shootouts, so its defensive numbers are a tiny bit skewed in my opinion. This is a difficult matchup for Josh Allen and the Bills. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points; the play is Kansas City! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
8* Seahawks (SPECIAL) Divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Arizona and Seattle are both 2-3 SU. The Cards are 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, but I think they'll finally stumble here in this difficult road venue. The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss to the Eagles last week. Kyler Murray has 1,241 passing yards and six passing TD's while also rushing for 133 and two more TD's. DeAndre Hopkins will return next week. The Seahawks fell 39-32 in New Orleans last week. Geno Smith has 1,305 passing yards, nine passing TDs' and only two INT's. Tyler Lockett has 406 yards receiving and two TD's. Neither team can afford to lose this game. I like Seattle too, at the very least, keep this one tight till the very end; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Blues | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
8* JACKETS puckline (SPECIAL) Columbus is 0-2 now after last night's 5-2 loss at home to the Lightning. They'll be eager to avoid the 0-3 hole here. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is normally a difficult thing, but not in this case. The season has just started and these athletes are in supreme shape. In fact, I'll argue that with those two games now under their belts, the Blue Jackets can feel confident moving forward that they've worked out a few issues. St. Louis on the other hand has been off for an entire week since its last pre-season contest. St. Louis has a few key players starting the season on the IL as well, so that doesn't bode well. I think an outright upset is a possibility, but in the end the value here lies with grabbing the visiting side on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +7 | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
8* New Mexico State (BLOWOUT) This is the 112th version of the Rio Grande Rivalry, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think we're going to see a tight battle until the final whistle. New Mexico is off a 27-14 home loss to Wyoming last weekend nad it's now lost two in a row. New Mexico State lost 21-7 to FIU two weeks ago, and it comes in focussed after its bye week. The Lobos average 259.7 yards per game on offense. The Lobos defense has been better though in allowing 22.8 PPG. The Aggies have been conceding 32.2 PPG in the early going. New Mexico State beat Hawaii 45-26 at home, but it's also been shutout twice. That won't be the case here today though at home, as I think the week off to prepare will be advantageous. New Mexico has won three straight in this series, and it may win a fourth as well. But it won't be easy. Grab the points, the play is New Mexico State! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 66 | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10* UNDER NIU/EMU (MAC TOM) NIU is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. It's seen the total go "over" the number in all six of its games that it's played in this season. EMU is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, and it's seen the total go "over" the number in four of its six games this year, including in its 45-23 road win at WMU last week. Both teams have been playing to many high-scoring games this season, hence the large O/U line we have attached to this one. But I expect a more defensive affair. NIU is off a 52-32 loss to Toledo, but it's seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 50 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. EMU is very similar in that it has a good offense, and weak defense. These facts though have only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Expect a little more running, a little more defense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once the final whistle sounds! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 113 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies yesterday in their 9-1 victory. Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports. And that's definitely the case in the playoffs. I've often found that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying that factor into their process, and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Charlie Morton finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. Syndergaard pitched one scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 in ATL and he's 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in six career playoff appearances. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in playoff elimination games. However, that was then and this is now. Morton gave up 18 hits and ten runs over his final three regular-season starts. Look for Syndergaard and the Phillies to ride the wave of emotion at home to another series victory! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 GOY) Kansas is 5-1 and Oklahoma is 3-3 coming into this Week 7 Big 12 matchup. With a date at Baylor next week, the Jayhawks could be caught "looking ahead" here. Kansas is coming off a 38-31 home loss to TCU and I think will struggle again here after losing starting QB Jalon Daniels to injury in the setback. Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off one of the worst and most humbling losses of all time in its 49-0 setback at home to Texas. Despite that though, the Sooners are still ranked 64th in the country in scoring with 30.8 PPG. They were without starting QB Dillon Gabriel for that one. He'll likely be back for this one, but even if he's not, I think the Sooners can take advantage and rally from last week's embarrassing effort. Nick Evers got a chance finally after his team was down by 40 points, and he looked a lot better than Davis Beville. Yes Oklahoma looked terrible last week, but let's not overreact. It's now time for the Sooners to react and I think they can bounce back and take care of business aginast a Kansas team off its first loss and down to its back up QB; lay the points, the play is Oklahoma! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | UTSA -33 v. Florida International | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* UTSA (ASSASSIN) UTSA is a massive favorite here. It comes to FIU at 4-2, while the Panthers come into this game at 2-3. UTSA most recently comes in off a tight 31-28 home win over Western Kentucky, unable to cover the 6.5 points. The Roadrunners were outscored 14-7 in the final quarter, but they managed to hold on for the victory. Quarterback Frank Harris had 273 yards and one touchdow, while Brenden Brady had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Texas San Antonio is 2-1 on the road, and so the big question here is: can the Roadrunners cover this massive spread on the road and on the short week? Florida International could struggle to keep pace with the high-flying visiting side. The Panthers are coming off a 33-12 home loss to UConn as 5.5-point underdogs. The Panthers were down 20-0 at half time and were never able to recover. Quarterback Grayson James had 256 passing yards, but also two interceptions. The lone bright spot was running back Lexington Joseph, who had 103 yards and a touchdown. Now, UTSA did allow 481 yards and 26 first downs to Western Kentucky last weekend, but it posted 486 yards and 30 first downs of its own. Besides, Western Kentucky averages 40.8 points per game, while Florida International averages 16.6; lay the points, the play is UTSA! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Blue Jackets PUCKLINE (BOB) Tampa fell 3-1 at New York in its opener, and I think the Lightning are going to have their hands full again here on the road vs. the hungry Blue Jackets. Columbus enters off a 4-1 loss at Carolina to open its season. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 36 saves in the loss to the Rangers, while Daniil Tarasov made 39 saves in the loss to Carolina. Elvis Merzilikins was sick for the Opener, but he could be back in net for the Jackets here, he finished 27-23-7 with a 3.22 GAA last year for Columbus. Either way, I feel that Tampa is in store for regression this season. This is a big home game opener for the Jackets and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to indeed grab them on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR on the Phillies. Philadelphia accomplished what it set out to do in Atlanta, and that was to earn a split. This is Philadelphia's first home game so far during the playoffs, having to win two straight in St. Louis to advance. The Phillies look solid and I say they bounce back after their 3-0 loss in Game 2 (note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who finished 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going seven scoreless vs. the Cards in the Wildcard: "We can't wait for it," Nola said of Game 3. "It's going to be electric. It's something special." The Braves could be going with Charlie Morton, who finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA, or Spencer Strider, who finished 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA. Whoever they go with, I give the big nod to a confident Nola at home. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Philly! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears OVER 37.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
10* OVER (NON DIV TOY) Yes, these two teams have been terrible. Yes, there have been plenty of "unders" in Prime Time NFL games this year. But I believe that tonight's total is now a bit TOO low. These teams, and these two starting quarterbacks, are dying for a breakout performance. It would be easy to look at their past stats and base our prediction on tonight's game upon those results, but the situation here has shifted the value to the higher number in my opinion. The Bears struggle against good passing teams, and Carson Wentz and the Commanders will be able to move the ball. With the home side having keep pace, we can expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Rangers v. Wild -134 | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
8* WILD (DESTROYER) The Rangers have a tough game at Winnipeg tomorrow night and I expect them to get caught looking ahead to that one. The Rangers feel super content after beating the Lightning 3-1 on Opening night. Minnesota finished second in its division last year. It was great offensively, and decent defensively. Marc-Andre Fleury went 9-2-0 with a 2.74 GAA for the Wild last year. Minnesota is 6-2 the last 8 in this series and I expect that strong run to continue here on Opening Night. Lay the price, the play is the Wild! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 116 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISIONAL TOM) Here's a great situational play we can take advantage of right out of the gate. We don't need to overthink this one at all. Throw out the stats from last year, and throw out the stats from each team's game las tnight. The Capitals lost 5-2 at home to Boston (the total soaring "over" the number of 6), while the Leafs fell 4-3 at Montreal. Each of these team's is favored to be among the best of the best once the season ends, so clearly neither can be happy with they way it performed last night. I expect each to be tired here, and I believe each'll double down on the defensive end. As I say, no need to overthink this one. Fatigue plays a major factor in this one and helps in driving this total "under" the number once the final horn blares! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida OVER 46 | Top | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
10* OVER Temple/UCF (TOW) The UCF Knights are 4-1 and the Temple Owls are 2-3. UCF has the 43rd ranked defense, allowing 347.2 yards per game. UCF has been even better offensively though, averaging 481.8 yards per game on offense. Temple is only averaging 282.8 yards per game while on offense the Owls only average 15 PPG. UCF put up 41 points on SMU at home here last week and despite how well the Owls have played defensively to this point, I think they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. That said, look for Temple to open things up offensively here as well as it tries to keep pace. Considering all of the above situational information, I definitely feel that Friday's O/U line is low; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS (SPECIAL) Houston took the first game by a score of 8-7. The Mariners allowed five runs over the 8th and 9th inning to lose by 1. They put in Robbie Ray to close out Game 1 and he served up a three run home run instead. As good as Luis Castillo has been for Seattle this season, and in their Wild Card win over the Jays, I believe he and the visiting side are in over their heads now in this game, and in this series. The Mariners had the Astros on the ropes and would have been in the drivers seat, but the meltdown over the final two innings is going to be a massive mental hurdle which I just don't see this team being able to get over quickly enough. And that's the window of opportunity and momentum that this No. 1 AL leading Houston team needs. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. I'm grabbing HOUSTON! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Canucks PUCKLINE (PACIFIC DIV GOM) I think the Oilers could be in due for some regression this year. I think the Canucks could take another big step forward this year. In what I see being a very competitive game, one which will likely be decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to grab the visitors on the puckline option. Vancouver missed the playoffs last year, finishing fifth in the Pacific Division at 43-31-8. Edmonton wasn't that far ahead in second at 49-27-6. Thatcher Demko finished 32-22-7 with 2.72 GAA for Vancouver last year. Jack Campbell is now in net for Edmonton after coming over from the Leafs. Last year he was 31-9-6 with a 2.64 GAA. The Oilers have a potent offensive attack with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but the defense was average. These two teams are more evenly matched than most think. I believe Vancouver could win this one outright, but the value here lies on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Blackhawks +335 v. Avalanche | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
8* Blackhawks (DESTROYER) Would I bet on Chicago in a seven game series against the Avalanche? No I would not. Do I think that the Hawks have much more than a "punchers chance" on Opening night to pull off an upset? I absolutely do. This line is much too large, and I think the value has swung the way of the hungry underdog visiting side. The Hawks were 28-42-12 last year. Patrick Kane is back for Chicago and he had 92 points last year. Petr Mrazek is net for Chicago this year and he finished 12-6 with a 3.34 GAA last season. The Avs won the Cup and Mikko Rantanen finished with 92 points. Alexander Georgiev and Darcy Kuemper will be tough to be in net this year for the Avs. Is there a major talent gap between these teams? There sure is. But on Opening night, I like Chicago to come out fired up and pull off the upset here. There is major regression in store for the Avs this season, and it all starts on opening night; the play is Chicago! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (NLDS TOY) Yesterday's total flew "over" the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday. The Padres look to bounce back and hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in the playoffs so far. He was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Darvish faces his old team with a chip on his shoulder. In four starts against them this year he went 1-2 with a 2.50 ERA spanning 25 innings. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in the regular season. Over two starts this year vs. the Friars he went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Look for these two stud starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SUPER TOTAL) I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here to open things up. Well, I think this total will eclipse this very low number anyways. The Padres managed to get by the Mets in three games and now they turn to Mike Clevingers, the fourth man in their rotation. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, including just 4-4 with a 5.48 ERA on the road. It's difficult to find any flaws in the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA this season and who has a plethora of knowledge and experience to draw upon in this game and series. San Diego plated 16 runs vs. the Mets though, and I think they'll be able to get a few here in Game 1 as well. This number is a little low in my estimation, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers -109 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
10* RANGERS (GOW) The Bolts were 51-23-8 last year, while the Rangers were 52-24-6. The Lightning made it to the Stanley Cup last season, but then lost to the Avalanche. The Lighting were seventh in goals last year and sixth in goals against. This is a big time revenge game for New York though, which was eliminiated by Tampa in six games in the Eastern Conference final last year. New York was ranked 16th offensively last year and second in goals against. Igor Shesterkin finished 36-13-4 with a 2.07 GAA. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a record of 35-16-4 with a 2.46 GAA for the Lightning, but I still love the home side at this price and in this situation. Look for New York to "even the score" with a solid win at home on Opening Night! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Logan Gilbert and the Mariners have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in Game 1 of this ALDS. The Wild Card teams have to blow through the top of their rotation, and then face the ace of their respective opponent in Game 1. Fortunately for the Mariners, they took care of business in two games. Sure, they'd rather have Luis Castillo going here in Game 1, but you can't front on Logan Gilbert, who finished 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this year. Now the good thing for Gilbert and the Mariners here as well, is that he was "lights out" on the road, going 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA. Clearly it won't be cake walk facing Justin Verlander, who was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. It's obviously impossible to say anything negative at all about Verlander, so I won't even bother. But the thing here is, I believe that Gilbert can match his veteran counterpart inning for inning to start with, and in a scenario like that, the value definitely swings to this hungry underdog. And with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, I love how this sets up for the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Raiders/Chiefs OVER (ASSASSIN). We've had a lot of low-scoring "PRIME TIME" NFL games to open up the season so far, but I'm expecting that trend to end this evening. The Raiders are 1-3 and another loss here to a division rival would essentially be the nail in the coffin for Derek Carr and company. Las Vegas comes in with momentum though as it pulled away for the 32-23 win over Denver last weekend. Overall the Raiders are averaging 24 PPG. The Chiefs are off the 41-31 win over Tampa and average 32.2 PPG. That's second in the league. Neither team has looked great defensively. Look for Carr and Patrick Mahomes to take center stage here in what I expect will be a wide-open and classic "duel" here between these two gun-slingers. All signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
10* OVER Bengals/Ravens (AFC NORTH TOY) Neither of these divisional foes has been in many high-scoring games this year, but I say that changes here and now on Sunday night in Baltimore. In fact, the 2-2 Bengals have seen the total go "under" in all four of their games this season, while the 2-2 Ravens have seen the total go "under" two of their four games, including in its 23-20 loss here at home to Buffalo last week. These are two teams in dire need of a win and I expect the sense of urgency that each will be playing with today, to translate into offensive production on the field finally. The Bengals come in with momentum after wins over the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens are off the heartbreaking loss to Buffalo. This is a great quarterback matchup and I expect Joe Burrow and LaMar Jackson to domiante the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. I know that we've seen a lot of lower-scoring games in the prime-tiome football spots, but this one screams "shootout" in my opinion; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Mets (NL TOW) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the posted number, but I expect the finale to be a much tighter, lower-scoring "duel" once it's all said and done. The Padres go with Joe Musgrove, who 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA overall and who was 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by the Mets' Chris Bassitt, who finished 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA overall and who was 6-6 with a 2.96 ERA at home. Funny enough, each has been rocked by their respective opponent in the past. Bassitt is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three career starts vs. San Diego, while Musgrove is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in six games vs. New York. But that's a case of that was then, and this is now. These starters enter on top form and I expect them to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 40 m | Show |
10* BUCCANEERS (NFC SOUTH GOY) I had a play on Atlanta last weekend in its upset win over the Browns. So far the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, but I'm expecting a letdown here finally. This is a big time game for Tom Brady and the Bucs. So far Tampa's season has been rocky to start. That's been in part to a few different factors, including key injuries and suspension. Yes the Bucs are coming off the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, but previous to that the Tampa defense was allowing just nine points per game on the defensive side. Brady and company looked better at the game worn on. I expect Tampa's vaunted defense to return to form here in this important home divisional matchup. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons have exceeded early expectations, but all signs point to a return to mediocrity here. I expect Tampa to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one and because of that, I'm laying the points; the play is the Buccaneers! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 52 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER Lions/Pats (NON-CONF TOY) These teams I think surprisingly have played to quite a few higher-scoring "overs" to open the season, but I believe everything points to this non-conference matchup being a very defensive affair. Both teams are in dire need of a victory at 1-3. Detroit is averaging 35 PPG, but allowing 35.3. I don't think that the Lions are as good offensively as their early numbers are showing, and I don't think they're nearly as poor defensively either. They've been involved in some wild games to open the season, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here vs. this talented Patriots defense. And conversely, the Lions' defense catches a break here facing this vanilla New England offense which will likely be without its starting QB again this week due to an ankle injury. Whoever is under cener for the Pats, I'm expecting a lot of running from Damien Harris, who has 246 rushing yards and three TD's for the Pats. Look for this important non-conference matchup to be a very tight, and ulimtately lower-scoring battle; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +7 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show | |
9* IOWA STATE (ASSASSIN) While I clearly believe the outright win is in the cards, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Iowa State is coming off a crushing loss to Kansas last week and I expect it to take out its frustrations on the Wildcats. The home side is winless in conference play, while K-State is 2-0. The Cyclones will look to crush the Wildcats chances at the Big 12 title with the outright win here. K-State comes in off a satisfying 37-28 home win over Texas Tech. QB Adrien Martinez had 116 passing yards a TD, while also running for 171 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Deuce Vaughn had 170 yards on 23 carries. They've been decent defensively, allowing 18 PPG so far. But Iowa State's defense ranks Top 15 in almost every category, allowing an average of only 255 yards per game. Overall they concede just 14 PPG. Last week Iowa State's kicker missed three FG's in the 14-11 setback to the Jayhawks. Overall they've averaged 26 PPG and note that the Cyclones are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU loss. K-State has a great run game, but Iowa State has an elite run stopping defense. Look for the hungrier home side to pull it off here; the play is Iowa State! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Army +17.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ARMY (SPECIAL) Wake Forest is the No. 15 team in the country. It's coming off a 31-21 win at Florida State as a 6-point underdog. Off that upset victory, I'm expecting the home side to get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent to its bye week the following week. Army is just 1-3 SU/ATS and it's off a 31-14 loss at home to Georgia State. I think the Black Knights sneak in under the radar here though and that they catch the Demon Deacons at a "good" time. Or at least we do as bettors here with Army, as I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything. The Knights will keep this game close with their rushing attack that ranks second in the nation with 303 yards per game. QB Sam Hartman is having a breakout season for the Deacons with 15 TD's to just two INT's so far, but I can't see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Will Wake Forest take care of business at home? Of course. But it won't cover this large spread against this motivated Army side looking to pull off an upset; grab the points, the play is the Black Knights! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
8* MIAMI (DESTRUCTION) North Carolina is 4-1 after beating the Hokies by a score of 41-10 last weekend. UNC is now tied with Duke for the top spot in the conference, but I'm expecting a step back here in this difficult road venue. Last week Drake Maye had 363 passing yards and three passing TD's, while also running in two more TD's on 73 yards rushing. This is a great situational play here tough as Miami comes in off its bye week from last week due to Hurricane Ian. Miami has had two weeks to absorb a terrible effort in a 45-31 setback to MTSU in Week 4, getting stopped on the 5-yard line twice and committing numerous tunovers. Before last weekend's win, UNC had allowed almost 500 yards per game of offense. There's a bit of a QB controversy for Miami, as Tyler Van Dyke was replaced by Jake Garica at half time in Week 4's loss. This competition though is a good thing for us though. UNC's weakness is on the defensive side and I think the unit has another big letdown here on the road; lay the points, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Predators v. Sharks OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Predators won yesterday's season opener by a score of 4-1. I'm expecting a more competitive battle here in Game 2, but one that flies well "over" the posted number once it's all said and done. Predators' goaltender Juuse Saros was 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA in three matchups vs. the Sharks last year. He then allowed just the one goal yesterday. Saros is almost assuredly out for this one though with backup Kevin Lankinen getting the nod. Lankinen is a fantastic backup. Even if Saros does play though, I expect each team to open things up here after that first awkward contest is behind them. Look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Rays +102 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10* RAYS (ASSASSIN) I like Tyler Glasnow and the Rays to bounce back from yesterday's tight 2-1 loss. Tampa's now lost six straight games, but I say that streak of futility finally ends here in the Ray's most important game of the season. Tyler Glasnow was impressive in two starts for Tampa after returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing one run, four hits, two walks and striking out ten over 6 2/3's innings of work. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts vs. the Guardians. The home side counters with Triston McKenzie, who finished 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA this season. He owns a 2.25 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa. Experience matters at this moment though and the Rays have a way of defying the metrics. The Guardians may win this series, but I expect it to go to the full three games; the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Phillies -102 v. Cardinals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOCKBUSTER) The Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the Playoffs in Game 5 of the NLDS by a score of 1-0 back in 2011 and Philadelphia hasn't been back to the postseason since. Until now that is. The old saying that "revenge is a dish best served cold" could not be more apt in this three-game series in my opinion. It's all hands on deck for Philadelphia as it tries to pull off the minor upset here on the road. Zach Wheeler finished 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA for the Phillies. He's 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts vs. the Cards. Miles Mikolas was going to get the call for the Cards, but now Jose Quintana will. He's 6-7 with a 2.93 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. But Philadelphia has all the motivation it needs here and it has the big hitters in the line-up to get the job done. And that's what I expect here in Game 1; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |