Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-24-19 | Redskins +17.5 v. Vikings | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Oddsmakers are expecting a blowout Thursday night when the 5-2 Vikings host the 1-6 Redskins. Washington has been very poor this year in all facets and was just shut out Sunday in the rain by the 49ers. It was a 9-0 loss. The Skins had won their first game for interim coach Bill Callahan, beating Miami 17-16. Then they covered at home vs. the 49ers. So there is some limited progress being made, at least on the defensive end. Three of the past four games have seen the Redskins allow 24 points or less. The only one they didn't was against New England. Minnesota has been impressive on offense its last two games, but they haven't always been great and Kirk Cousins still shouldn't be trusted. Something to keep mind ... Since 2009, Minnesota has been -14 or more just one time. It was last year vs. Buffalo and they lost the game straight up. None of their wins this year have been by more than 20 points. Very hard to win in this league by this amount. The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 times the teams have met. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston OVER 65.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER SMU is one of the highest scoring teams in the country at 44.3 points per game. The fewest points they've scored in any game this year was 37 and that was in the very first game. Since then, it's been at least 41 in every game. With a range of 37 to 49 points scored in all games, the Mustangs have certainly been consistent. All seven of their games have gone Over so far. No other team has gone Over in every game. In all four of Houston's losses this year, they've allowed at least 31 points. If you take away Houston's two weakest opponents this year, which would be Prairie View A&M and Connecticut, the defensive numbers get real ugly. But help is on the way offensively as QB Clayton Tune is set to make his return to field. The last game Tune started and finished, the Cougars scored 46 points. They may not be as high-powered as they were when D'Eriq King was the quarterback, but Houston should still be respected offensively. They should score in the 30's while SMU should top 40 and that means the Over will hit again for the favorite. Play OVER SMU-HOUSTON AAA |
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10-24-19 | Coyotes v. Islanders -117 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the ISLANDERS Both the Coyotes (5-2-1) and Islanders (5-3) come into tonight on four-game win streaks. Arizona has been getting the job done by scoring plenty of goals (17) while the Islanders haven't been giving many up (7). So something will have to give tonight at the Nassau Coliseum. This being a home game for the Isles is an advantage. So is the schedule, which has given them last four days off. The 'Yotes just played Tuesday here in New York, against the Rangers. They won obviously, but needed overtime to do so. They're likely to struggle to score tonight. The Islanders not giving up many goals is nothing new. They gave up the fewest goals in the league in last year's regular season. Also, the first four games saw Arizona tally just seven goals. So the offensive decline seems all but inevitable this evening. Then you have the fact the Islanders have really had the 'Yotes number the last couple seasons. They swept the pair of matchups last year and are 10-3-2 the L15 times playing host. The Isles are also 16-5 their last 21 non-conference games. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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10-23-19 | Thunder v. Jazz OVER 222.5 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER First James Harden left, then Kevin Durant and finally Russell Westbrook. Oklahoma City figures to take a major tumble down the standings in 2019-20 in what should end up being a pretty ugly season. Don’t expect any sympathy from Utah though as the Jazz feel they have a legit shot at finishing first in the West. For Opening Night in Salt Lake City, expect plenty of points as the Thunder are going to struggle defensively. They’d already slipped pretty badly at that end last year and a less talented roster figures to do a worse job. The Thunder do have Chris Paul and we think they’ll be okay - relatively speaking - when it comes to scoring points. So should Utah. Bojan Bogdanovic is the kind of shooter they lacked a season ago. Over is 12-8 the L20 Jazz home games where the total was 220 or higher. Play OVER OKC-UTAH AAA |
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10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Philly Milwaukee comes into the year as the favorite to win the NBA’s Eastern Conference. As for the debate over “who’s #2?” it probably comes down to one of these teams.The 76ers host the Celtics to open the year and the winner will have made an early season statement in the Atlantic Division. We like the 76ers at home as they have more minutes returning from last season. Plus they nabbed Al Horford away from the Celtics. Horford joins Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as the stars in Philly. Embiid was not healthy in the playoffs and this is obviously a much better team when he is healthy. Remember that Philly took eventual champion Toronto to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston also lost in the semis, but there’s a lot of change here with Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving, who was a failed experiment. Boston has covered the last five head to head meetings, but it’s time for that to change Wednesday as the Sixers should easily cover this short number at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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10-23-19 | Red Wings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Detroit and Ottawa aren’t exactly doing a lot of scoring lately. The Red Wings have managed just seven goals during a five-game losing streak while the Senators have scored only five goals during their own four-game losing streak. So it stands to reason we won’t see many goals scored in this Wednesday night battle. Ottawa has scored the fewest goals in the league so far with just 17 in 8 games. The Under is 4-0-1 their last five games. Detroit isn’t averaging many shots, a good thing for Ottawa seeing as they’re giving up one of the highest shot totals in the league. Defense has been the Red Wings weak spot so far, but facing the lowest scoring team in the league is a reprieve. Under is 11-6 when Ottawa is off three straight road games. Play UNDER Detroit-Ottawa AAA |
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10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros -183 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -183 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* on HOUSTON It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massie favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight and that gives them a huge edge against any opponent, even the Nationals with Max Scherzer going opposite Cole. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Astros have won the last 16 times Cole has started! Scherzer is great in his own right, but Cole is simply on a different level right now. The Nationals are just 9-11 this season as a road underdog of +125 or more. The Astros are 65-22 at home, outscoring teams by almost two full runs per game, and they are 23-8 priced between -175 and -250. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
THis is a 9* play on the UNDER It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massive favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Under is 5-1-1 in Cole’s last seven starts (0.71 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) with just the one Over being the only game where there were more than seven combined runs scored. Houston should feel lucky to have Cole pitching tonight because Washington has Max Scherzer. Scherzer also has a 3-0 TSR in the playoffs to go along with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. For the year, he has a 2.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. On the road, those numbers slightly improve to 2.43 and 0.91. When Scherzer and those kind of numbers represent the second best starter in a given matchup, the game is probably going Under. Play UNDER Washington-Houston AAA |
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10-22-19 | Kings v. Jets -136 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
We rode Winnipeg to a 1-0 victory over Edmonton on Sunday. That game did happen to go to a shootout, but keep in mind that they beat a team that entered with a record of 7-1. Here the Jets are going to be facing a much weaker foe in the Kings. The Kings are in last place in the Pacific, the same place where they finished last year. LA is off a rare win, 4-1 against Calgary, which snapped a three-game losing streak. But the win came at home. The Kings have won just once on the road so far. Winnipeg also snapped a three-game losing streak with that win over Edmonton, but remember what we said in our writeup. The previous three losses all came at home and that was something we could not see continuing. The Kings had been shutout in two straight games before beating the Flames. Fading them off a win seems like a smart move, especially with this being the second of two straight road games. Play on WINNIPEG |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 43 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on OVER New England and New York already played once this year and it was a 30-14 win by the Patriots. The Jets actually failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game (1 def, 1 ST), but that was with Luke Falk making his first career NFL start at quarterback. Falk is thankfully no longer around as Sam Darnold returned last week to throw for 300+ yards in an upset of Dallas. Darnold being on the field this time should automatically make the Jets more competitive. Despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in that first meeting, the Jets still covered. The game also went Over the total. If we can get an Over with one team not even scoring an offensive TD, it makes sense to come back with that same play for the rematch now that Darnold is the Jets QB. The Patriots average 31.7 points/game. So with the Jets likely to score more than they did the first go around with New England, all we need is an “average” type performance from the Patriots offense and this one should sail Over. The Over is 7-3 in the Jets past 10 home games. Play OVER New England-NY Jets AAA |
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10-21-19 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two teams with very different recent levels of scoring will skate against each other Monday. The last five games involving Columbus have all stayed Under. The last four, which consist of two wins and two losses for the Blue Jackets, have all been 3-2 finals. The Over is 4-0-1 in Toronto’s last five games with four of the five seeing at least seven total goals scored. Something will have to change tonight. We don’t think the Maple Leafs can continue to score almost 4.0 goals/game, so the change is more likely from their side. Now they did win in Columbus 4-1 on October 4th. Still that final score makes this total look too high. The Under is 6-0 the last six times the Blue Jackets have been an underdog. Toronto is without captain John Tavares. The Blue Jackets have gone six straight games without allowing more than three goals in regulation. Play UNDER Columbus-Toronto AAA |
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10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DALLAS Huge game in the NFC East this week as the winner will be in first place with a key head to head win. Dallas has lost three in a row, all as favorites. You’d have to go back to 1974 to find the last time they lost four in a row as favorites. While things haven’t been going well of late, they have beaten Philly three straight times. The Eagles certainly didn’t look good last week in an 18-point loss at Minnesota. Their secondary was shredded and remains a huge question mark. So Dak Prescott should have a big game tonight, especially with the Cowboys offensive line now healthy (Tyron Smith back). The Cowboys are 12-2 SU/ATS their L14 division games. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-20-19 | Oilers v. Jets -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WINNIPEG Winnipeg has lost three in a row, all at home. They won’t lose four, right? Edmonton is 7-1, but has had to come back multiple times and is being outshot on the year. They have a shooting percentage of nearly 15%, which will not continue. The Jets and Oilers have played six times the last two years. Winnipeg has won five of those games. They are also 5-1 the last two seasons when off three consecutive losses. We just can’t see the Jets losing four in a row at home. We remain skeptical of Edmonton. With two days off to prepare for this one, look for the home team to grab the two points. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 87 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Arizona is 2-3-1. The Giants are 2-4. All that enthusiasm surrounding the move to Daniel Jone at QB in the Big Apple seems to have quieted. The Giants have lost two straight games, though those were against the Vikings and Patriots, two of the better teams in the league (one of them THE best). Speaking of new QBs, the Cardinals obviously continue to roll with rookie Kyler Murray. He guided his team to a wild 34-33 win over Atlanta last week where the Cards were lucky that Falcons kicker Matt Bryant missed the potential game-tying extra point. The last two games have been Murray and the offense's best showings yet. Not coincidentally, Arizona won both games. But they were also facing two terrible defenses. The Giants defense isn't exactly what we'd call great, but neither is an offense which has scored 24 points the last two games. Actually, one of their two touchdowns last week came from the defenses. That game with the Patriots was a terrible beat for anyone with the Under as there were three non-offensive scores in the game (two by New England). Take those away and you wouldn't come close to approaching the number this week. The Giants have averaged just over 210 yards/game the last two weeks. Under is 6-1 for Arizona if they allowed 30 or more points the previous week. Play UNDER Arizona-NY Giants AAA |
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10-20-19 | Raiders v. Packers -5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 87 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GREEN BAY Green Bay needed some serious help from the refs to get by Detroit on Monday Night Football. The Lions still covered, which is all we needed. But a closer inspection of the box score reveals it was Detroit that may actually have been a bit lucky to leave with the cash. Sure, the officiating got all the headlines. But the Packers were +148 in total yardage. They turned it over three times and still won. Winning a game where you're -3 in the turnover department is not an easy thing to do. Take away those miscuses and there's probably no discussion of the referees at all. On a short week, the Packers turn around and are set to host the Raiders. Oakland is off a bye. The last two games have both been upset victories for the Silver and Black, first over Indianapolis, then over Chicago in London. We can't see a third straight upset though. They've lost and failed to cover the only other two times in the last three years they've been off two straight wins. They're also still just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS the last 18 road games. Gruden has them improving, but the Raiders still aren't ready to go on the road and beat Aaron Rodgers. They haven't beaten the Packers since 1987! Green Bay is 2-0 ATS after its last two times playing on MNF, so no need to worry about the short week. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the COLTS The Colts are coming off a bye and not getting enough respect here against the Texans. Both teams are 4-2. Before the bye, Indianapolis went into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs, holding them to only 13 points. We think they are certainly capable of doing the same to Deshaun Watson and Houston. The Texans don’t always do the best job at protecting Watson, who has been sacked 18 times in six games. The Colts defense typically does a tremendous job at pressuring the quarterback. In the three meetings last year, one of them a playoff win, the Colts sacked Watson a total of 15 times. Making matters worse for Houston, they lost their right tackle to a MCL injury last week. When the Colts offense is on the field, look for QB Brissett to have a big day. He had 10 TD passes in the first four games, throwing for at least two. The Texans defense is suspect through the air, allowing the second most completions in the league. Receiver TY Hilton has typically had big games against the Texans in his career. The Colts have won 13 of their last 19 games overall. They are at home and the bye week is a big advantage here. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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10-19-19 | Air Force v. Hawaii UNDER 64 | Top | 56-26 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER It's the usual late start out in Hawaii (11 PM easter) with Air Force making the trip out to Honolulu. Both teams enter this game with a 4-2 record. However, one won last week (Air Force) while the other (Hawaii obviously!) lost. The only thing the last two Hawaii games have in common is the winner scored a lot of points. It was them putting up 54 in thrashing of Nevada on September 28th. But then they gave up 59 last week to Boise State. Air Force obviously runs a much different offense than most teams with the triple option. While the Flyboys have scored 40 or more in every home game, they are averaging just under 25 PPG on the road. The run first approach should theoretically shorten this game. Last week, the Falcons attempted only three passes in their 43-24 win over Fresno State. They did run for 340 yards. But this total is much higher than all their other games this year. Hawaii has been involved in some wild ones so far, but they've also faced three Pac 12 teams + Boise State. Most of the offenses they go up against the rest of the way will be weaker than what they've already gone against. Don't discount the effect the trip itself might have on the Air Force offense. Hawaii has one of the most unique home field advantages in the sport. These two high-powered offenses should each "slow down" a bit Saturday night. Play UNDER Air Force-Hawaii AAA |
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10-19-19 | Rice -4.5 v. UTSA | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on RICE Let's get this out right away. UTSA is 0-14 ATS its L14 home games where the total falls into the range of 42.5 to 49 points. Maybe that trend doesn't sound so meaningful to you, but what should be meaningful to everyone is the fact that 0-6 Rice is giving points on the road. That, right there, should be a signal as to how bad this UTSA team is. The Roadrunners are 2-4, but their two wins were against UTEP and Incarnate Word. The way we see it, there are only three FBS that UTSA would be favored against regardless of locale ... UTEP, Akron and UMass. They already faced UTEP and won't see the other two on the schedule. So don't expect UTSA to win another game. Rice has not won many games the last few years, but even they've beaten UTEP twice since 2016 and did so by margins much greater than what UTSA pulled off two weeks ago. While winless in 2019, Rice has played two good teams - Army and Baylor - tough. They probably should have beaten Army (lost 14-7 on a late TD). Last week at UAB was a one-point game at halftime before the Blazers scored back to back touchdowns, the second coming off a turnover. Three of Rice's six losses have been by eight points or less. With the season now half over, the Owls have to figure this is their best shot at winning (they will play at UTEP in the final regular season game). Having lost four straight times to UTSA, the motivation is going to be really high on the Rice sideline. Can't say the same for UTSA. Play on RICE AAA |
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10-19-19 | Kentucky +26 v. Georgia | Top | 0-21 | Win | 100 | 43 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KENTUCKY Georgia is off one of the most shocking losses of the year (to South Carolina) and dropped to #10 in the rankings as a result. The Bulldogs were 20.5 point favorites and outgained the Gamecocks 468-297. But they still lost, primarily due to four turnovers (one was a pick-six) and finally a missed FG by the uber-reliable kicker Rodrigo Blankenship in double overtime. After a loss like, the expectation will be for Georgia to come out with a vengeance. But be wary of laying this big number against a dangerous Kentucky team. While the Wildcats aren't quite the same caliber as they were a year ago (when they won 10 games), they'll relish being big underdogs in this spot. They beat Arkansas last week, despite having a backup quarterback. In Lexington, they are hoping that starter Sawyer Smith is back this week. But if he isn't, backup Lynn Bowden has proven himself serviceable. Remember South Carolina beat Georgia last week despite being down to its THIRD string QB. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS off their previous four victories. Georgia is just 1-4 ATS its last five home games. The Bulldogs have covered six in a row in this SEC East rivalry, but their confidence is shaky right now as is the offense. Look for UK to stay within the number. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -120 | 124 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON The biggest game of the season in the Pac 12 North is set to go down this Saturday in Seattle and it just so happens to be our biggest play of the entire College Football regular season. Washington hosts Oregon in a battle of top 25 teams. Washington just found its way back into the polls after 51-27 win over Arizona last week. The Huskies had been upset the previous week, on the road, as 17-point favorites by Stanford. It was their second time losing outright as a double digit favorite as Cal also got them back in Week 2. Oregon comes in flying high off a 45-3 beatdown over Colorado last Friday night. Since that game was on national television, the perception of this Ducks team is probably the highest its been all year. Oregon has lost just one time, the season opener vs. Auburn, and that was a game they led for 59 minutes. Since then, they've allowed 25 points in five games, beating both Stanford and Cal along the way. But this will clearly be the Ducks toughest test since the Auburn game and probably the rest of the season. Oregon had seized control of this rivalry for a long time, but then it was Washington winning convincingly in both 2016 and 2017 by a combined 84 points. Last year's game went to overtime with Oregon winning 30-27 as three-point underdogs - in Eugene. So its a revenge game for Washington, not to mention also a must-win seeing as a third conference loss would all but kill their chances of winning this division. The game taking place in Seattle is very meaningful. Washington is 13-2 its previous 15 Pac 12 home games. Oregon is 4-11 its last 15 Pac 12 road games. The Huskies can also play some defense as the 27 points given up last week, in a 24-point victory, ironically were a season-high. Led by QB Jacob Eason, the offense also happened to score a season-high in points. This is going to be a much tougher game than what Oregon has been experiencing over the last month and it will be interesting to see how they react, especially on the road. It has been a long time since Washington was an underdog at home. The year was 2015, just Chris Petersen's second as head coach here. So this opportunity doesn't arise very often. We love the value here on a team that hasn't been beaten by more than one possession in three years. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-18-19 | UNLV +16.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -112 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV shocked a lot of people when they beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. It wasn't just that the Rebels won; they did so by 24 as a 16-point underdog. Something to keep in mind is that this was a 1-win team that went across the country and beat an SEC team. UNLV's only prior win was against Southern Utah. The four losses that followed had many questioning the future of coach Tony Sanchez. In none of those four losses did the Rebels score more than 17 points. Two unheralded players led the offensive resurgence. QB Oblad, only starting because of an injury to Armani Rogers, had an efficient game as he threw for 10.8 yards per attempt. RB Chad Maygar went for a career-best 116 yards. While this UNLV team obviously still has a way to go, this week's opponent appears to be on a downward trajectory after winning 22 games the last two years. Fresno State lost 43-24 against Air Force last week, which dropped them to 2-3 on the year. Now the Bulldogs were underdogs in all three losses. But they were only a three-point dog last week. Their two wins have been by 13 and 14 points, so oddsmakers are asking FSU to do something this week that they have not been able to do all season and that's win a game by more than two touchdowns. The Bulldogs defense got gashed on the ground last week by Air Force as it clearly wore down late. This is just a lot of points to lay for a team that hasn't looked all that good this season. UNLV is 10-5 ATS its past 15 road games. Play on UNLV AAA |
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10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the YANKEES (RUN LINE) It's do or die for the Yankees Friday night as they now face a 3-1 series deficit. After winning Game 1 by a score of 7-0, it's been all downhill. But they do get one more home game. With everyone pretty much writing their chances off at this point, we think it's a good time to "double down" and take them on the run line as they should at least keep Game 5 close, if not win it. James Paxton is starting tonight. He had won 10 straight decisions before getting a quick hook in Game 2. The final score of that game was 3-2, so you can see why the run line could be a good idea tonight. Beating Justin Verlander is not easy, but the Rays did it at home in Game 4 of the ALDS. We think the Yankees can do the same here as they are in the situation the Rays were, that being facing elimination in a home game. The Yankees are 5-2 this season after losing their last three games. Getting the Yankees this offense with a +1.5 at home isn't something that happens very often. It's a shockingly low price too. Paxton has been a "stopper" this year with a 6-0 TSR the last six times he's started off a Yankees loss. The team is also 6-0 in his last six starts at home. Play the YANKEES on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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10-18-19 | Rangers v. Capitals -200 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on WASHINGTON Great spot to play the Capitals tonight, in our opinion. They're rested while the Rangers are in the second night of a back to back. The Rangers lost 5-2 in New Jersey last night. That's a Devils team that had been winless in its first six games. Washington has been one of the Rangers least favorite opponents the last few years. They lost all four times to them in 2018-19 and are 1-4-5 SU the L10 meetings. The Capitals come in fresh here after beating Toronto 4-3 Wednesday night. Scoring goals hasn't been an issue the last four games for Washington as they've found the back of the net 16 times. They have had their issues at the other end, but shouldn't here. The Rangers have only three goals in their last two games and went 0 for 6 on the power play last night. The schedule has been odd for the Rangers so far as they've played only four games. This kind of rest is good later in the season, but the amount of inaction this early leaves them rusty and they're not about to fix their issues in a game with no rest. Washington was already the superior team and seemingly has every edge that they'd need to get the two points here. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE Syracuse seems to have taken a bit of a step back this year. The Orange are 3-3, so unless they win out, they're going to end up with a worse record than last season. A horrible showing against Maryland will probably haunt them the rest of the season, but there was no shame in losing to either Clemson or at North Carolina State. We actually faded the Orange in last Thursday's trip to Raleigh. They only lost 16-10 though despite allowing eight sacks and rushing 37 times for only 41 yards. The NC State defense is pretty special, which is something we're not sure we can say about Pitt's. The Panthers have allowed at least 30 points in half their games this year. They did hold Penn State in check, but this is a team that's had to hit the road only one other time and that was two weeks ago when they beat Duke by a field goal. Pitt has won three in a row, but those three wins have been by seven total points. Against Duke, they blew a 23-point lead and needed a last minute touchdown for the 33-30 win. The Blue Devils certainly helped by turning the ball over six times. Remember that Syracuse started the year ranked in the top 25. QB DeVito has 9 TDs vs. 1 INT the L3 games, so he's played well despite being under constant pressure. The Orange lost this game last year, in overtime, 44-37 as a three-point road favorite. Time for them to turn the tide. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-17-19 | Sabres v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Sabres are off their regulation loss of the season, which came last night in Anaheim by a score of 5-2. At 5-1-1 though, they still lead the Atlantic Division w/ 11 points. Who knows how long that will last night, but tonight they seem to have a favorable matchup against the last place Kings. Los Angeles finished with the least amount of points in the Western Conference last season. They have started 2-4 this year and have had major issues keeping the opposition from scoring. Their 28 goals allowed are second most in the league right now. It's going to take a lot more than covering up a Taylor Swift banner to get this team pointed in the right direction. The good news though is they only allowed two goals in their last game, which took place Tuesday, and that was a season-low. The bad news is they got shutout by Carolina. Buffalo allowed two goals or less in four of its first six games before getting blitzed last night by Anaheim. But Carter Hutton should be back in goal tonight (Ulmark played last night) and he's been the better of the two goalies so far, including a 25-save shutout against Dallas on Monday. One area where the Sabres are due to drop off is the power play. We saw that last night with them going just 1 for 7 while having the man advantage. Previously, they'd converted a league-high 42.9% of the time on the power play, a number which cannot be maintained. The top power play team last year converted "only" 28.2% of the time. Play UNDER Buffalo-Los Angeles AAA |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Through four weeks, the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos 0-4. But the last two weeks have seen a sudden change with Kansas City losing twice and Denver winning both of its games. So it's not a shock to us to see the line "tighten" as we get closer to kickoff. We very much give the Broncos a shot of winning here despite the fact you'd have to go all the way back to 2015 to find the last time they beat the Chiefs. It's a seven-game losing streak to the Chiefs, but before that Denver had actually beaten this division rival seven straight times. Kansas City has definitely been better in recent years but Patrick Mahomes is not 100% presently (ankle) and the offense has put up its two lowest point totals EVER with him as the starter the last two games. Denver's defense is playing well right now, having held the Chargers and Titans to 13 points and 450 yards total. Obviously, neither of those teams have the offensive firepower Kansas City does. But the Broncos defense is top four in the league in yards allowed and top seven in points allowed. They may not be as stingy as they were against the last two opponents, but they have the potential to keep Kansas City under 25 points. As for the Chiefs defense, it's never really been good. Last year, Mahomes and the offense were so productive that the defense was largely an afterthought. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs would be on a three-game losing streak right now if it wasn't for a last minute TD against Detroit. There have been only two games this year where Denver DIDN'T have the lead going into the final minute. We'll take the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 49 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Kansas City has scored its two lowest point totals EVER with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB the last two games. They lost both and now must face a Denver defense that's playing with some confidence following two straight wins, the last one coming in shutout fashion. But the Chiefs offense, even with Mahomes hobbled, is still far more dangerous than what the Broncos have faced the last two weeks. It's certainly reasonable to expect Kansas City to score at least 24 points in this game. That's something they've done every time but once with Mahomes as the starter. That one time was two weeks ago against Indianapolis. By kickoff, this could very well end up as the lowest O/U for any Chiefs game so far this season. Denver's offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack as well, but that shouldn't be a problem going against a KC defense that is struggling right now. A year ago, the Chiefs allowed the second most yards in all of football. It hardly mattered with Mahomes and the offense putting up record numbers. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs have given up 26 or more points four times this year. The Over is 17-5 the Chiefs past 22 road games and 3-1-1 the last five times the Broncos have been off a win by at least two touchdowns. Play OVER Kansas City-Denver AAA |
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10-17-19 | Astros v. Yankees -124 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Astros lead this series 2-1 after taking the last two games. Game 4 (originally set for Weds) was bumped back a day, which allows for a "re-shuffling" of the deck, pitching-wise. Both teams were intending on making Wednesday a "bullpen day," but with the rainout it will allow them to go back to their regular rotations. Now we get a repeat of the Game 1 matchup - Zack Greinke vs. Masahiro Tanaka - which was won by the Yankees 7-0. Greinke has struggled in two playoff starts, giving up five home runs. He's given up nine runs total in two games, lasting just 9 2/3 innings. Tanaka threw six innings of shutout ball in Game 1 while allowing only one hit. He's 2-0 in the playoffs as he allowed only one run and three hits against the Twins in the LDS. Houston has not done much offensively in this series as they've scored just seven runs in three games, on 17 hits. The Yankees are 70-28 their last 98 games as a home favorite of -125 to -175. They are 39-21 this year after a loss. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State UNDER 67.5 | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Louisiana was the last team in the country to lose a game ATS. The loss happened last week at home to Appalachian State (who is still undefeated straight up), 17-7. It was quite the departure offensively for a Ragin Cajuns team that had scored 35 points or more four games in a row. They were held to just over 250 total yards as well. Appalachian State had the answer for what had been a dominant Louisiana run game, holding them to just 123 yards on 33 carries. For us, the game was a 45-point win on the Under! You'd hope that game at least provided a blueprint for Arkansas State, who has struggled defensively in 2019. Virtually all of the Red Wolves games this year have been high-scoring. The fewest total points scored in any ASU game is 55 and that ironically saw them allow all 55 (shutout loss to Georgia). Oddsmakers have taken note, however, and jacked up the O/U for this game. The Red Wolves have scored 90 points the last two years against Louisiana, but this game promises to be lower-scoring. The Ragin Cajuns defense has allowed more than 25 points in just one game and that was vs. Mississippi State. They are the top Sun Belt defense in terms of points allowed and just outside the top 30 nationally. While most are going to anticipate this being a shootout, you can look for it to stay Under as that's what 11 of ASU's last 16 conference games have done. Play UNDER UL Lafayette-Arkansas State AAA |
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10-16-19 | Hurricanes v. Sharks -124 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN JOSE Carolina is off to a red-hot 6-1 start, their only loss coming at home to Columbus on Saturday. But they're underdogs on the money line Wednesday, playing in the second night of a back to back. The Hurricanes are facing a San Jose team that's off two straight wins following an 0-4 start. The Sharks struggled to find the back of the net in those four losses, two of which were against Vegas. But in one game, a 5-4 win over Chicago, they matched their number of goals scored from the previous four. Then came a 3-1 win over the Flames Sunday here at home. Carolina won 2-0 against Los Angeles Tuesday night. But they were outshot 31-23. This is the best start in franchise history. However, do note that the Canes only loss did come in the second night of a back to back. The turnaround in San Jose coincides with the return of Patrick Marleau to the lineup. The Sharks haven't lost since their all-time leader in minutes played, goals and assists made his season debut. Carolina is due a "hiccup," plain and simple. Play on SAN JOSE AAA |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama +15 v. Troy | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SOUTH ALABAMA At 2-3, Troy has the same number of losses as they had all of last year. They haven't lost more than three games in any season since 2015, which was Neal Brown's first. Brown is gone to West Virginia and he obviously he took the program's mojo with him. The new coaching staff is struggling here as the Trojans have already lost twice as favorites (Southern Miss, Arkansas St) and then 42-10 to Missouri. All 42 points were allowed in the first half before Missouri lost its starting QB to injury. Troy also lost its starting QB in the first half with Kaleb Barker going down with an undisclosed injury. Barker was averaging 341.8 YPG passing going into the Missouri game. His absence would be significant. On the other side of the ball, Troy's defense gave up a touchdown on six consecutive drives vs. Missouri. While South Alabama's offense has not been particularly good this year, we think they are going to find success here through the air. Troy's defense is 10th in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency. The Trojans are just 4-10 ATS their L14 home games and the home team has lost this in-state rivalry game four straight years. They've already lost outright as favorites twice this year. South Alabama has covered six of the last seven times it has been a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points and 8-2 ATS off back to back losses. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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10-15-19 | Red Wings v. Canucks -143 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on VANCOUVER The Canucks started the season with two straight losses on the road, both in the province over (Alberta) as they went down at the hands of Edmonton and Calgary. They've since ripped off two straight convincing wins at home. Fortunate for them then that tonight's game is being played in Vancouver. They'll host Detroit, a team we're not very high on this year. The Red Wings last game was a 5-2 home loss to Toronto. In the last couple years, they have not performed well after giving up at least four goals in their last game. They are 19-44 L63 in that role. Vancouver scored 8 goals in its home opener (against the Kings) and then beat Philly 3-2 here on Saturday night. In goal, they're being forced to turn to backup Thatcher Demko as #1 Jacob Markstrom is out dealing with a family matter. But that's okay by us as the Red Wings didn't get a single goal from their top three lines Saturday. Canucks are the better team here. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
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10-15-19 | Astros -153 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON Gerrit Cole. That's what this one comes down to for us. Houston had to turn to its ace twice in the Tampa Bay series and both times Cole delivered with stellar outings. Now its the Yankees turn to face him. This is a crucial game where you want your best starter on the mound. So Houston "lucked out" a bit in that they had to wait until Game 3 to start Cole. The Yankees go with Severino, who hadn't started a game before September due to injury. It'll have to be a joint effort here with the bullpen for the Yankees as Severino hasn't pitched more than five innings in any of his four starts this year. Cole, on the other hand, is a machine. He can certainly be counted on for at least seven innings tonight. He went 7 2/3 and 8 in the two starts last series, allowing only one run and six hits total. He had 25 strikeouts and just three walks. Really, the entire 2019 season has been a ridiculous run for Cole as his last loss occurred on May 22nd! Since then, he's 18-0 in 25 starts with the Astros going 23-2 overall including 15-0 the L15! Talk about line value ... Cole hasn't been south of -200 on the money line since he was -175 at Milwaukee on September 2nd. Since winning that one, he's been -270 or higher for seven consecutive starts, a stretch which has seen him go 7-0 with a 0.87 ERA. While we have to be careful to "respect" the Yankees in this position, the bottom line is we like Cole too much to pass up taking him at this price. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Historically speaking, the Lions have not fared well in their rivalry with the Packers. But the recent trends all seem to favor them. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last two years vs. Green Bay. Three of those wins came as underdogs. The Lions are off a bye this week and they've covered six of the last seven years after a bye. Monday Night Football seems like a nice place to return to action as Matt Stafford is 7-3 ATS all-time on MNF including 5-1 on the road. Detroit is the better offensive team here as they average more points and yards per play. Green Bay, even though 4-1, is being outgained both on a per play and per game basis. They've been outgained in three of the four wins and were only +2 in yards in the other. They gave up 563 yards last week to Dallas, a win that was largely tied to being +3 in turnovers. The last time Detroit played, they held Patrick Mahomes to zero touchdown passes. They didn't win that game (lost 34-30), but still covered, something they've done three straight times - all as underdogs. The line move is telling for this one. Aaron Rodgers won't have his favorite receiver, Davante Adams. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -185 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5 Oddsmakers had Washington as the favorite to win the NLCS before the series started. That's looking like a pretty smart position now as the Nationals won both games in St. Louis. Gone is the home field advantage in the series, but it would be wrong to write the Cardinals off this early in the series. They've got one of the best pitchers in baseball going on Monday. That would be Jack Flaherty. Remember Flaherty was favored to win his start in Atlanta in Game 2 and was even money for Game 5. The team split the pair, losing Game 2 by a score of 3-0 but winning Game 5, 13-1. Flaherty posted a 2.77 ERA in the two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 13 innings. Flaherty hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his previous 18 starts. He allowed zero runs in half of those 18 starts (9 times), a stretch that dates back to before the All Star Break. So even though he's facing Steven Strasburg and being backed by an offense that could barely get a hit the first two games, Flaherty +1.5 seems like a safe bet to us as he's a lock not to give up many runs. It hasn't mattered yet in this series, but the Cardinals do have the better bullpen. Washington didn't do much scoring in the first two games either. Play ST LOUIS on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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10-14-19 | Avalanche v. Capitals -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON The Capitals host the unbeaten Avalanche late Monday afternoon in D.C. The catch here is while the Avs may be unbeaten, all four of their wins have come at home. Tonight is the first time they've got to hit the road and last year they were just 17-24 in road games. Washington is a surprising 0-2 at home so far, but did just win in Dallas 4-2 on Saturday. They'd lost three in a row prior to that win, which was a revenge spot. Not only was it the Caps first wins in regulation at Dallas since 1995, they'd just lost to the Stars at home last Tuesday. In all three of the Capitals losses this year, they had the lead entering the 3rd period. Two of those three losses came in overtime. So sometimes records can be misleading and they are here as Washington is the betting favorite for a reason and that reason is simple. They are a better team than the unbeaten Avalanche. Colorado's roster lacks depth and winning on the road is a lot harder than winning at home. Saturday's win over Arizona needed overtime. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-13-19 | Flames +120 v. Sharks | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CALGARY We played against the Flames last night. It was our Game of the Week. The Flames were in Vegas, a tough place to play, and the Golden Knights were hungry off back to back losses. The final score ended up being 6-2. Calgary has not won or lost consecutive times in the first two weeks of the season. So we expect them to battle back despite tonight being the second game of a back to back and third road game in four night. San Jose had not won a game this year before beating Chicago 5-4 Thursday. In the way, they equaled their number of goals scored from the first four games combined. With the situation being what it is, Cam Talbot will be in goal for the first time for the Flames. Any questions about him should be offset by the fact Sharks goalie Martin Jones has really struggled so far. He has an .854 save percentage and 4.56 goals against average in three games. San Jose has lost all three. The Flames are a great "grab" at plus money. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER It's been confirmed that the Steelers are starting 3rd stringer Devlin Hodges Sunday night as backup Mason Rudolph is still unable to return from last week's concussion. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger's season is over after an injury suffered in the second game. That's the current state of the Steelers, who are 1-4 after suffering a tough 23-20 home loss to Baltimore in overtime. They did score with Hodges in the game as he went 7 of 9 for 63 yards. In College, Hodges won the Walter Payton Award in 2018 while at Samford, meaning he was the best player at the FCS level. Maybe he has a higher upside than Rudolph? We do think the Steelers will be able to score on a Chargers defense that's giving up 6.3 yards per play. Take away the ugly opener in New England and Pittsburgh has scored at least 20 points in every game. Los Angeles is off a bad home loss to Denver last week in which they scored only 13 points. But they turned it over twice inside the 5-yard line, so there easily could have more points for them. Philip Rivers and company, while short-handed, should bounce back tonight. RB Gordon is back after a lengthy holdout. The Under is 4-0 the Chargers last four games, but the Over is 4-1 in the last five matchups with the Steelers. The key angle here is that this is the lowest total of the season for either team. Game goes Over. Play OVER Pittsburgh-LA Chargers AAA |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Astros are 4-2 off a shutout loss this season and 16-7 the last three seasons in this very situation. A stunning 7-0 defeat in Game 1 should only have them stronger for Game 2 when they'll send out Verlander, who is 4-0 in his postseason career against the Yankees including a pair of wins in the 2017 ALCS. Verlander lost his last start, which came on short rest. He has not dropped consecutive decisions even one time this year. Houston is 25-11 in his 36 starts, an individual campaign which could produce another Cy Young. Verlander is 11-4 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. When he pitched here in Game 1 of the LDS, he didn't allow a run in seven innings and gave up just one hit. The Astros home record this year is 63-22. They don't lose back to back home games often. They did lose three in a row to Oakland last month. But before that it happened only three times all year and not since June. James Paxton is the Game 2 starter for the Yankees. The Yanks have won 12 straight times with Paxton on the mound. But he wasn't especially great in either of the last two and this is his toughest assignment of the season. The Astros are 21-5 the last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-13-19 | Cowboys -7 v. Jets | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DALLAS Dallas started 3-0, but is now 3-2 after suffering losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. So the Jets will be a welcome sight this Sunday. Sam Darnold is making his return here for the Jets, but they are more than just a quarterback away from competing with this Cowboys team. Dallas has the #1 ranked offense in the league. The Jets are 32nd. Dallas is 2nd on defense in number of third down conversions allowed. The Jets offense is the worst at converting third downs. The Cowboys feasted on losing teams in the 3-0 start, beating the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. QB Prescott is 13-5-2 ATS against losing teams. He's also 7-2-1 ATS as a starter when favored by more than six points. Prescott had a career-high 463 yards passing last week. The Jets have gained only 233 yards total the last two games. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals UNDER 52 | Top | 33-34 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Atlanta is favored in this one, but it sure doesn't feel like they should be. That's cause they've lost three in a row and four of five to open the season. Arizona is now 1-3-1 after picking up its first win last week at the expense of winless Cincinnati. The Falcons completely fell apart late in the game vs. Houston last week and ended up giving up 53 points. It was a one-possession game going into the final two minutes but they ended up losing by 21. We expect a better defensive effort this week. At the same time, they hadn't scored more than 24 in a game themselves before last week. The Cardinals had been held to 20 points or less in the three games prior to last week's win. Two of their top offensive players - RB Johnson and WR Kirk - may not play Sunday. The Under is 22-9 the Cardinals last 31 home games. The Cardinals have been settling for far too many field goals this year. 14 of 22 scoring drives have ended with a FG rather than a touchdown. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan turns it over too often in the red zone. Play UNDER Atlanta-Arizona AAA |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12 v. Ravens | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI We don't expect the Ravens to lose here. But double-digit favorite isn't their best role. They are just 3 for their last 13 ATS in it. Also, John Harbaugh hasn't been good when laying points to the Bengals. Not only is he 4-11-1 including 1-6 L7 at the window, but he's gone just 7-9 straight up in those games, also losing six of the last eight outright. The Bengals are 0-5, but they've been a tougher out than you might think. Three of the losses have been in games decided by seven points or less. In all three, Cincy had a fourth quarter lead and two of them they were up at the two-minute warning. Two of the three close games were on the road where they're now on a 6-2 ATS run despite losing all eight games straight up. Baltimore may have success running the ball in this game, but that just means it'll be a "shorter" game with less big plays. Plus the Ravens defense has not been good recently, giving up 96 points the last three weeks. They are allowing 6.9 yards per play, which is worse than the Bengals much maligned defense. The last six meetings here in Baltimore have all been games decided by seven points or less. The Ravens have beaten Miami, Arizona and a Pittsburgh team that was down to its third-string QB. Two of those wins were by six points or less. Grab the points in this AFC North battle. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-13-19 | Redskins v. Dolphins +4 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Here it is. Perhaps the worst regular season matchup we've seen in some time. It's the 0-5 Redskins taking on the 0-4 Dolphins. The only reason Miami didn't lose last week is because it was off. They have been the league's worst team so far, getting outscored 163-26. Washington has the dubious honor of being the league's next worst team. They've scored just 10 points the last two games. They've given up at least 31 in four of the five games. Just to show how unique this matchup is, it's only the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team at 0-5 or worse has been listed as a road favorite. The first was the Redskins in 1998 and they lost the game outright. While Miami is off a bye, Washington just fired its coach (Jay Gruden). While there's no denying how dubious the Dolphins have been, a team as bad as the Redskins should never be a road favorite. They (the Redskins) haven't been favored in any game since Week 9 of last year. This will be the 12 time in the Super Bowl era that two winless teams are meeting after Week 5. The home team is 8-3 ATS the previous 11 matchups. 0-4 or worse teams coming off a bye are 26-10 ATS all-time. Bill Callahan is the interim Redskins coach and he ended up being a disaster in Oakland. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State OVER 38 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER This is an insanely low total for a College Football game in 2019. Consider that Wyoming is averaging 31 points/game on its own, which would be basically just a touchdown shy of the number. Now we don't expect the Cowboys to score that many against San Diego State. This team is a very misleading 4-1 as they have been outgained in four of five games. Before beating UNLV 53-17 two weeks ago, the Cowboys had trailed by double digits in all four games. The defense gives up over 400 yards and is lucky to be allowing only 20.4 points/game. San Diego State has seen all five of its game stay Under so far and their participation is what has this total so low. Going back to last season, the Aztecs have had their issues scoring. But they should rediscover the end zone multiple times against this Wyoming defense. The Aztecs have scored at least 23 points in all three wins this year and are off nice road win against Colorado State. QB Agnew threw three touchdowns in the 24-10 win. The Over has hit 8 of the last 11 times these schools have met and not once was the total lower than it is here. By kickoff, there's a strong chance that this total will be the lowest for any NCAAF game played so far this season. Let's be honest here. It won't take much to send the game Over and with the game taking place in San Diego, you know the weather will not be a factor. Play OVER Wyoming-San Diego State AAA |
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10-12-19 | Cub Swanson v. Kron Gracie -175 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -175 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Kron Gracie (to win) The Gracie name will be forever intertwined with the Ultimate Fighting Championship due to Royce Gracie dominating the early days of the promotion when it was a very different sport. The latest Gracie to make an impact is Kron Gracie, who is 5-0 with all five wins coming by submission. He's back in the Octagon tonight to face the struggling Cub Swanson, whose UFC career seems to be headed in a much different direction. Swanson has lost four in a row, two of them by submission. Given the state of the respective careers here, this line looks to be way too short. Gracie just submitted Alex Caceras in his last fight. It was over in the 1st round and it's worth mentioning that Caceras hadn't been beaten that early going all the way back to 2011! Gracie is obviously going to take this fight to the ground ASAP and when it gets there he has an overwhelming advantage that will make the final result academic. Swanson has not won a fight by tapout since 2009! Nor has he even finished an opponent in any fashion going back to 2013. Any advantage Swanson could enjoy standing will be nullified by the fact he's going to be on the defensive, trying to avoid being taken down. This should be a quick and one-sided fight. Play on KRON GRACIE AAA |
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10-12-19 | Flames v. Golden Knights -137 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Vegas started its season by sweeping a home and home against rival San Jose. They've since lost two straight. Even though it was at home, the loss to Boston can't be considered all that bad. The Bruins have looked really good so far. But a 4-1 loss at Arizona has to be considered the Golden Knights first "bad" performance of the young campaign. They look to rebound tonight, back at home, against a Calgary team that won the Pacific Division last year. The Flames, like the Knights, have won two and lost two. One of the Flames two losses was in overtime. That was as a -250 favorite at home vs. the Kings. They came back to beat Dallas 3-2 on the road Thursday, though it went to a shootout. Vegas has been far too careless with the puck their last two games. Fortunately that can be corrected. We lean on home ice advantage tonight. Calgary has never won in Vegas, losing all four prior trips. The home team was also 4-0 in the four overall meetings last season. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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10-12-19 | Yankees v. Astros -150 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON For the second time in the last three years, it will be the Astros meeting the Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Two years ago, Houston prevailed in a seven game series that saw the home team go 7-0. Fortunately for the Astros, they once again have the homefield edge. The only time that the Yanks had to come to Minute Maid Park in 2019 was back in April. They were swept in that three-game series. Before winning Game 3 over Minnesota in the LDS, New York had lost 10 of 12 playoff road games. They are just 2-12 their last 14 road games in LCS play including the 0 for 4 in Houston back in 2017. We suppose the only question mark with the Astros going into Game 1 would be Zack Grienke facing this potent Yankees lineup. Greinke did not pitch well in Game 3 of the LDS vs. Tampa Bay where he gave up three home runs and six runs total in a 10-3 loss. But that's not something we usually see from him and certainly its even less common to see Greinke turn in two bad starts in a row. He pitched well the two times he faced NY in the regular season. In 12 2/3 innings, he allowed only three runs. Greinke has lost just once at home this year. For the Yankees, Tanaka often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00. He got to pitch at home in the LDS. The Yankees are 5-7 this year as underdogs of +125 to +175 on the road. Houston is an impressive 21-4 after a day off. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-12-19 | USC +11 v. Notre Dame | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on USC Notre Dame has had a couple close calls with the pointspread the last two weeks. That may seem like an odd statement for a team coming off a 52-0 victory last week, but they were actually favored to beat Bowling Green by 45.5. The week prior they took advantage of some late turnovers to down Virginia 35-20 as 10.5-point favorites. Believe us when we saw that the Fighting Irish wouldn't have won that game had they not been +5 in turnovers. The week before that was the loss to Georgia. So it's been a bit of an exhausting stretch for Brian Kelly's team and now USC comes to South Bend for a Saturday night battle. The Trojans were off last week and we love the spot for them getting this many points. Two weeks ago, they upset Utah despite having to turn to third string QB Matt Fink. Fink threw for 381 yards in that game but came back down to Earth against Washington, throwing three costly interceptions in a 28-14 loss. Despite the final score, USC slightly outgained Washington in that contest. The same was true in the Trojans other loss, which was by three at BYU in overtime. Kedon Slovis has been cleared to return from a concussion this week and will get the start. Though Fink had the big game vs. Utah, consider Slovis an upgrade at the position. The Fighting Irish have covered four straight games, but their "luck" runs out here. You should expect Slovis and the USC offense to take better care of the football than previous ND opponents have. Play on USC AAA |
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10-12-19 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -109 | 76 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEBRASKA Minnesota has managed to stay unbeaten, but four of its five wins have been by no more than seven points. Last week's 40-17 triumph over Illinois is the outlier. At the start of the year, we certainly didn't envision Nebraska being a seven-point underdog in this game. No one did. But the Cornhuskers have suffered two defeats already, one to Ohio State, and are dealing with some uncertainty at quarterback heading into Saturday. Adrian Martinez had to leave last week's game vs. Northwestern with a knee injury and did not return. The team is preparing as if backup Noah Vedral is going to get the call and that's fine by us. Vedral followed coach Scott Frost to Lincoln as a UCF transfer. It's telling that Minnesota still isn't ranked despite its 5-0 start. We've got these teams rated pretty evenly and that's even after factoring in the Gophers homefield advantage. This line seems to be an overreaction to the Nebraska QB situation, which we feel is unwarranted. The Cornhuskers are 8-4 ATS their previous 12 road games. Last year, they were winless coming into the Minnesota game and won 53-28. Again, the Gophers struggled to get by the likes of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They only beat Purdue by 7 despite the Boilermakers losing both their starting QB and top receiver in that game. It would be great if Martinez could play, but we're prepared to roll with Vedral if necessary. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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10-12-19 | Michigan State +11 v. Wisconsin | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Sparty simply didn't have the horses to keep up with Ohio State last Saturday night in Columbus. The game got away from them late in the second quarter when the Buckeyes put 10 points on the board in the final 2:24 to go into halftime with a 27-10 halftime advantage. It is worth pointing out that - absent the second quarter - they held Ohio State to one touchdown in the other three quarters. Having to play Ohio State and Wisconsin back to back weeks on the road almost seems unfair, but this matchup should be more friendly from the Michigan State perspective. Wisconsin is less athletic and less dynamic in the passing game. We know the Badgers will lean heavily on the road, but that plays right into the hands of Mark Dantonio's defense, which ranked 1st in the country at stopping the run last year and is 21st so far this year. The Spartans haven't had many bad years under Dantonio. Really, an injury-riddled and unfortunate 2016 (where they went 3-9) was the only one. Take that season away and they've gone 10-1 SU the week after suffering a double digit loss and the only loss in the situation was by a field goal. This is a lot of points for Wisconsin to lay in what should be a methodical, grind it out type game. They've been blowing out lesser teams so far (including Michigan), but struggled to get by Northwestern here in Madison and this should be a similar kind of game against a more talented opponent. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. Though currently unranked, we think the Spartans are still a Top 25 team. We don't see them being blown out back to back weeks. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-12-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee +7 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE Mississippi State (3-2 SU) comes in as the favorite here in Knoxville against a struggling 1-4 Tennessee team. Though it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs are favored, two weeks ago they looked completely incompetent in getting run off the field by Auburn. They lost the game 56-23 and while they got a week off to recoup, we still would want no part of laying points on the road with them. In another competitive environment, they lost to Kansas State and that was at home. Tennessee obviously has its own set of issues after being blown out by Florida and Georgia. But they did play Georgia tough in the first half as they were up 14-13 with under two minutes left in the first half. From there, they were outscored 30-0. But this is a game the Vols think they can win. If there's still any hope of making a bowl game, they may need this one. Mississippi State hasn't won in Knoxville since 1986 (0-4 since) so expecting them to win by more than a touchdown, in a down year, seems unlikely. Tennessee has won 9 of the last 11 meetings overall. Freshman Maurer remains the starting QB on Rocky Top after making his debut in the role vs. Georgia. Miss State's QB situation is a little more murky as Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader are both banged up. Tennessee has covered only 3 of its last 17 home games, which is pretty incredible when you think about it, but Miss State is only 1-6 ATS its past seven road games. This is a spot where taking the points should come in handy. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-11-19 | Colorado v. Oregon OVER 57.5 | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -116 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Once again, the Pac 12 is not looking very strong. Oregon is probably the best the conference has to offer and they are ranked #13. The Ducks only loss was to Auburn, a game they led virtually the entire time. Since that loss, they've battled back to win four in a row, even though QB Justin Herbert really hasn't been as good as advertised. Last week, the Ducks were held to a season low 17 points in a win over California. That was a good defense they were up against though and Herbert did extend his streak of games with at least one touchdown pass to 33. The Ducks also gained over 400 yards and had double the first downs Cal did. So it was a pretty impressive win. Expect them to find more offensive success this week against a struggling Colorado defense that hasn't seemed to keep anyone in check. Five games have seen the Buffaloes be remarkably consistent, giving up between 30 and 35 points. We project it to be very likely Oregon scores more than 35 in this game. The Ducks defense has also been consistent - consistently good that is. They've allowed a total of 22 points the last four games, giving up no more than 7 to any one opponent. But Colorado can score. They average nearly 35 points/game. All but one of Colorado's games have seen 65 or more total points scored. There's likely to be a lot of Overs involving Colorado moving forward and this should be one of them. The have a QB in Steven Montez who is on pace for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Play OVER Colorado-Oregon AAA |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS We think it's a little interesting that it's Washington favored to win the NLCS. After all, the Nationals were not expected to be here. They appeared dead in Game 5 vs. the Dodgers, down 3-0, but shocking back to back home runs off Clayton Kershaw brought them back to life and allowed them to win in extra innings. Earlier that day, St. Louis pounded Atlanta 13-1, becoming the first team in postseason history to score 10 runs in the first inning. The Cardinals are the ones with homefield advantage in the series and that's huge for a starting rotation whose individual members almost all pitch better here. Miles Mikolas is up first. In his only LDS start (Game 1), his team got the win thanks to five solid innings where Mikolas allowed only one run on three hits. He also threw a scoreless inning of relief in Game 4. He has a 2.41 ERA his past three starts and a 3.01 ERA/1.05 WHIP at home this season. Mikolas got to face Washington twice in the regular season and he ended up allowing just four runs in 12 innings. The Cardinals don't give up many runs at home (just 3.6 per game) so them getting handed homefield advantage is a big deal. Anibal Sanchez is the Game 1 starter for the Nationals. He is 2-4 in eight career starts vs. St. Louis and took a loss against them back in April. While the starting pitching matchup may seem close to even, the Cardinals have a substantial edge in the bullpen. Really good value on the home team for Game 1. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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10-11-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +3.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on NEW MEXICO This rivalry in the Mountain West Conference has squarely belonged to Colorado State in recent years. The Rams have beaten New Mexico nine straight times and covered five of the last six. However, it's not like the Lobos haven't been getting closer. They lost by only two points (20-18) in Fort Collins a year ago and then by only three the last time CSU came to Albuquerque. Losing by double digits to San Jose State last Friday wasn't a good look for New Mexico, who continues to play "quarterback roulette." Bob Davie has had six different QB's start the last 25 games, none of which have had very much success. But Colorado State coming in as a road favorite just reeks. The Rams haven't even beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win was 38-13 over Western Illinois. They've lost four straight since their own QB, Colin Hill, was lost for the season against Arkansas. New Mexico has won both home games this year. There was an excuse for the Lobos losing 32-21 at San Jose State last week and that excuse was six turnovers. Take better care of the football this week and they can pull the upset. Colorado State has turned it over 16 times in six games. They've also lost outright three of the previous six times they've been a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Another disadvantage the Rams face here is their last game was Saturday while New Mexico played last Friday. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-11-19 | Islanders v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Carolina has grabbed the bull by the horns, starting out 4-0. Their most recent win saw them score six times and that was on the road. But they may find some issues scoring tonight as they are matched up with an Islanders team that gave up the fewest goals in hockey a year ago. New York will be looking to put an ugly 5-2 loss to Edmonton behind it. That loss occurred Tuesday, the same day the Hurricanes won 6-3 in Florida. But that loss on Tuesday isn't the only thing the Islanders would like to forget. Last Spring, they were swept in the first round of the playoffs by Carolina. Then again, that probably has them extra motivated coming into tonight's game. Regardless of the motivation factor, we like this to be a low-scoring affair. The Islanders have scored only seven goals in three games. Though off to the 4-0 start, three of Carolina's wins have come in overtime, so they've only topped three goals in regulation one time. The Under is 54-14-4 in the Islanders last 72 games as an underdog. Play UNDER New York-Carolina AAA |
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10-10-19 | Golden Knights -135 v. Coyotes | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VEGAS Before the season, there was a lot of chatter about how good Vegas might be and so far that chatter seems pretty well justified. The Golden Knights opened their season by sweeping a home and home with San Jose. But then they lost on home ice to Boston 4-3 on Tuesday night. That's a good Bruins team though. There won't be too many visitors that strong showing up at T-Mobile Arena this season. Let us not forget that Vegas has gone 54-23-7 in regular season home games during their short existence. But even though tonight's game is on the road, Arizona is not a team they ought to be too concerned about. The Coyotes are 0-2 and have scored only one goal on the season. Improved last season, the 'Yotes may very well take a "step back" this year. Vegas is averaging four goals/game, so it's likely they'll simply have too much offense for the home team to keep up here. Going back to last year, Arizona has lost seven of eight as an underdog. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND Stop us when you've heard this one before. The Patriots are once again the class of the NFL. As one of the league's two undefeateds, they've outscored their five opponents by 121 points. Some of the competition can certainly be called into question. After all, they've faced the league's three worst teams - Dolphins, Jets, Redskins - who are a combined 0-13. But they've still only allowed two offensive touchdowns all season. One was a 65-yard run last week. Just to show how much they're in front of the rest of the league, this will already be the fourth time this year that they're being favored by at least two touchdowns. Thursday night's opponent is the Giants, who already had some of the wind taken out of their sails with last week's poor effort vs. Minnesota. After rookie QB Daniel Jones guided them to a couple victories, the Vikings game went a lot differently as the offense barely gained 200 yards in a 28-10 loss. New York easily could be 1-4 right now with the only convincing win coming against the winless Redskins. Rookie QB's traditionally do not fare well against Bill Belichick, so we'll call for Jones to struggle again this week. The Giants defense has already allowed 490 or more yards in three games and is giving up 6.8 yards per play. So good luck stopping Tom Brady. Lay the big number as New England is 40-17-2 ATS its last 59 home games. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse v. NC State -4.5 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NC STATE Syracuse and North Carolina State are both 3-2 entering Thursday night's ACC matchup, but it feels like whomever loses this game is going to see their season go south in a hurry. Syracuse won 10 games last year. But having to replace the school's all-time passing leader was going to be a chore. After opening the season with a 24-0 win over Liberty (whose coach Hugh Freeze was literally laying in bed), the Orange were subsequently squeezed by both Maryland and Clemson. They lost those games by a combined score of 104-26. They've since beaten Western Michigan and Holy Cross, but that doesn't mean much given the nature of the opponents. They're dealing with a lot of injuries right now, especially on defense, but they're also still using a backup center. Six freshman started the game vs. Holy Cross. QB DeVito had to leave that game with an upper body injury, but will play in this game. Speaking of quarterbacks, NC State turns to a new one Thursday as Bailey Hockman replaces the ineffective Matthew McKay. The Wolfpack like to throw and McKay simply wasn't getting the ball downfield the way coach Doeren wanted. NC State is on a three-game ATS losing streak and was beaten soundly by both West Virginia and Florida State. But they are 3-0 in Raleigh this year and 14-2 their last 16 at home. Syracuse is 4-16 SU on the ACC road since 2014. A change in quarterback should lead to better results for the home team this week as NC State actually played better than you think in the 31-13 loss to Florida State as total yardage and first downs were basically dead even. Play on NORTH CAROLINA STATE AAA |
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10-10-19 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Not many people expected the Rays to extend the Astros this far, but here we are and it's the last League Division Series to be decided. The home team is 4-0 in the series and with Game 5 in Houston, you probably won't find many "takers" on the Rays outside of their own clubhouse. We acknowledge the unlikelihood of the Rays advancing (though we did have them in Game 3), but won't be getting involved with the Astros either due to the current price. We are actually 4-0 in this series having cashed Houston in Game 1, the Under in Game 2, Tampa Bay in Game 3 and the Under in Game 4. Now it's time to play the Over, which may sound strange as Gerrit Cole is pitching for the Astros and we did take the Under in his Game 2 start. As masterful as he was that day and as dominant as he's been throughout the second half, the Astros offense is more than capable of scoring enough on its own to help send this one Over. They average 6.0 runs/game at home for the year. Tampa Bay did score 10 runs in Game 3, six of them against Zack Greinke. So don't rule out the notion of them hitting Cole better tonight than they did in Game 2. Tyler Glasnow is the Game 5 starter for the Rays. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 and gave up two runs. The Over is 5-1 in the Rays past six LDS road games. The Over is also 5-2 in Cole's last seven home starts despite how well he has pitched in those games. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Houston AAA |
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10-09-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (run line) The LDS between the Nationals and Dodgers will go to a Game 5 in Los Angeles Wednesday night. Starting for Washington will be Stephen Strasburg. Starting for LA will be Walker Buehler (not Clayton Kershaw). As good as Buehler and the Dodgers have been, the opportunity to take Strasburg and the Nationals +1.5 (run line) in this situation is even better. Buehler was sensational in winning Game 1. He gave up just one hit in six innings. But Strasburg was equally as sensational in winning Game 2. He allowed just one run and three hits in six innings, beating Kershaw. The numbers from Strasburg's last several starts are also eye-opening. It's a 0.95 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three as he's given up two runs and 10 hits in 19 innings. He has 26 strikeouts and just three walks. For the sake of comparison, Buehler has allowed six runs his last three starts (only 16 innings) and has 10 walks. In a game that rates pretty close to a toss-up, laying juice to get the 1.5 runs seems like a smart move. Washington has proven it can beat the mighty Dodgers. They are 3-3 here in LA this season and 6-6 the L3 seasons. Play WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 70.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER This is an early season showdown in the Sun Belt and we're glad to see it get the national spotlight it deserves. Appalachian State is a team you probably are aware of as the Mountaineers first made their presence felt over a decade ago (then as a FCS team) by upsetting Michigan. It's been a successful transition to FBS and the Sun Belt Conference as they are 35-6 their last 41 league games. They have won or shared the SBC regular season title each of the last four seasons. Already this year, the Mountaineers upset one Power 5 team (North Carolina), part of a 4-0 SU start. But Wednesday is probably their toughest test of the season as they are facing a Louisiana team that has covered the spread in all five of its games so far, beating the oddsmakers expectations by about 70 points. The only loss for the Ragin Cajuns this year was the opener 38-28 to Mississippi State. Since then, they've scored 35 or more in every game, their last three all going Over. Similarly, App State has scored 34 or more in all four of its games and the last three have been Overs. But with a high total and high stakes, we're gonna call for the game Wednesday night to be lower-scoring than expected. Last year, this was a 27-17 game, won by Appalachian State. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings. The Under is 14-5 the last 19 times App State scored more than 40 points their previous game (beat Coastal Carolina 56-37). The Under is 4-1 the last five times Louisiana has been coming off a bye. Play UNDER Appalachian State-Louisiana AAA |
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10-09-19 | Devils v. Flyers -122 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We haven't seen too much from either the Devils or Flyers on this young season, but we think we've seen enough to take the latter at home tonight. Philadelphia has played just one game so far and it was a 4-3 win over Chicago over in Prague. New Jersey has lost twice, including blowing a 4-0 lead to Winnipeg in the first game. That was followed up by a 7-2 loss to a Buffalo team that last season finished with only 76 points. Of course, the Devils finished with only 72 points and were the last place team in the Metropolitan. It was quite curious (to us) to see how much 'preseason hype' NJ is getting coming off that kind of season. They were projected (by oddsmakers) for 90.5 points, which would be right at the cusp of playoff contention. We just don't see it as the goaltending here remains pretty terrible and Philly got off 38 shots in the win over Chicago. This is the only home that the Flyers get to play between now and October 19th. So they should come out focused and ready to play. New Jersey also has had plenty of rest coming into this game, but they are 0-4 the last four times they've played with three or more days rest. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -105 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA It's come down to a winner-take-all game between the Cardinals and Braves. After splitting two games in Atlanta, the same thing happened in St. Louis. The Cardinals needed 10 innings to win Game 4. Interestingly, the team that has been trailing entering the 8th inning has won three of the four games. That includes both Cardinals victories. The two games St. Louis won saw them score five or more runs. The two that they lost saw them score 1 total. The problem for Game 5 is they are facing a pitcher they failed to score any runs against and that's Mike Foltynewicz, who previously started Game 2. Foltynewicz outdueled Jack Flaherty, which is not easy to do. But Foltynewicz now has a 1.51 ERA and 0.82 WHIP his last seven starts. He's allowed 0 or 1 run in five of his last six. It's five total runs allowed his last 40 innings. Flaherty allowed all three runs in the Game 2 loss. He does have slightly better numbers than Foltynewicz in his last seven starts and certainly the better numbers overall. But the issue is that Game 5 takes place in Atlanta. Flaherty's numbers go up on the road and the team actually has a losing record in his away starts (8-10). Atlanta is a good home team and easily could have put this series away already. They finally do so Wednesday. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-08-19 | Sharks v. Predators -159 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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10-08-19 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Tampa Bay managed to keep its season going (at least for another day) with a stunning 10-3 win in Game 3. We weren't too surprised as we backed the Rays +1.5 Monday and did call for more offensive than expected. Still, beating Zack Greinke and the Astros by that kind of margin was eye-opening. But the oddsmakers are rightly giving the Rays little chance in Game 4 as the pitching matchup appears to be as one-sided as any we'll see all postseason. Justin Verlander goes for Houston. He started Game 1 and didn't allow a run in seven innings. He only allowed one hit. Verlander is of course on the short list for the AL Cy Young as he has a 2.54 ERA and 0.80 WHIP for the season. After yesterday's offensive explosion, TB should be back to the lack of production at the plate that we saw in both Games 1 and 2. Even with his last three starts all ending up as Overs, the Under remains 22-12 in all Verlander starts this season. The Under had been 10-1 in the Rays' previous 11 home playoff games (before yesterday). The price is obviously too high to play Houston in this matchup, so it's on Diego Castillo and the rest of the Rays staff to limit what the Astros do at the plate. Considering TB allows only 3.8 runs/game at Tropicana Field, something we cited in our Game 3 analysis, we think they are up to that challenge. Play UNDER Houston-Tampa Bay AAA |
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10-08-19 | Oilers v. Islanders -155 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the ISLANDERS We used Edmonton as our Game of the Week on Saturday. While the Oilers won, they made beating the Kings a lot harder than it should have been. After scoring first, they ended up trailing most of the game. It wasn't until a power play goal with just 6:32 remaining that they took the lead for good and it was a rather ugly effort to boot where they gave up five goals. Tonight they face a team that won't be nearly that generous at the opposite end. The Islanders were the league leaders in fewest goals allowed last year and have given up just three in their first two games of this season. The last one was a 4-1 win over Winnipeg. This will be New York's third straight home game while it's Edmonton's first time playing on the road. Home team won both times these teams met last year. No matter who the Islanders elect to go with in goal, they'll have an edge there in tonight's game. Edmonton is just 18-46 its last 64 games as an underdog. New York has won 16 of its last 21 non-conference games and is 23-8 its last 31 as favorite of -151 to -200. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -119 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA +1.5 The Twins have simply had no luck when it comes to facing the Yankees in the playoffs. They've lost 12 straight postseason games to them and 15 straight postseason games overall! Tonight, their season hangs in the balance, but they are back home with Jake Odorizzi set to start. Hindsight is 20/20, but maybe manager Rocco Baldelli should have kept Odorizzi as his Game 2 starter as Randy Dobnak was no match for the powerful Yankees lineup. But the Twins have a powerful lineup of their own, one that also hit 300+ home runs in the regular season, something no other team in baseball history had done prior to 2019. Giving them an additional 1.5 runs to work with at home seems like a smart play at home, especially because this is the first time in the series Minnesota looks to have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Odorizzi has an 8-2 team start record his 10 trips to the mound. None of those have seen him give up more than three earned runs. It's a streak that goes all the way back to the end of July. The Yankees turn to Severino, who pitched just three times this year due to a shoulder injury. Up 2-0 in the series, this is probably the best time to try him, but we still think he's far from a safe bet at this point. While history is not on the Twins side tonight, we are, at least with them getting 1.5 runs. Play MINNESOTA on the RUN LINE. AAA |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers -4.5 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN FRANCISCO While the Browns grabbed all the offseason headlines, it's been the 49ers starting 3-0 that has been the league's biggest surprise so far. Tonight, they host the 2-2 Browns, who are making their second appearance on MNF in three weeks. The first couldn't have gone much better as they routed the hapless Jets 23-3. But last week's 40-25 win in Baltimore was probably the most impressive we've seen Cleveland look all season. But we still have question marks about this team - on both sides of the ball. Over half of Nick Chubb's 166 yards rushing against the Ravens came on one play (88 yard touchdown run). The 49ers have a top five run defense, so look for Chubb to struggle to duplicate last week's success. QB Mayfield is often guilty of holding onto the ball for too long, leading to poor decisions or the offensive line breaking down. Again, look for the 49ers defensive front to be the biggest factor in this game. San Francisco is off a bye and West Coast teams typically have the edge over Eastern Time Zone opponents in these primetime games. So the situation definitely favors the home team. The 49ers offense, save for five turnovers against the Steelers, has been outstanding the last two games as they've rolled up over 1,000 yards! They've averaged over 6.5 yards per play during that time. That they still beat Pittsburgh, even though they were -3 in turnovers, is actually quite impressive. The defense held the Steelers to only 239 total yards. The Niners are a better team than the Browns and those "expecting" them to lose a game are going to be sorely disappointed. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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10-07-19 | Blues v. Maple Leafs -125 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO St. Louis, the defending Stanley Cup Champions, started the season with a disappointing overtime loss to Washington on Opening Night. But they bounced back three days later to defeat Dallas by the same score of 3-2. They are now set to play on the road for the first time against a Toronto team that won its first two games before losing here at home to Montreal Saturday, 6-5. That was a rough loss for the Maple Leafs considering they led 4-1 going into the third period. It wound up going into a shootout and that's when they eventually fell. The Blues rallied with two third period goals to beat Dallas, so they easily could be 0-2 while the Leafs could easily be 3-0 right now. The Montreal game was the second in back to back nights, so maybe that explains Toronto's failure down the stretch. Whatever the reason was, look for them to come out motivated on Monday. This is a bit of a revenge game as they've lost all four games with St. Louis the last two years and 14 of the last 19 home games against them. The Leafs are doing an excellent job getting the puck on the net, averaging 36 shots and 4.7 goals per game. They win here. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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10-07-19 | Astros v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 The Rays are finding out the hard way just how difficult facing this Astros starting rotation can be in a postseason format. As expected, Tampa has struggled to score runs here, managing just three total in the first two games and none of those came against Houston starters Verlander and Cole. Now they are set to face Zack Grienke. At least they will do so at Tropicana Field where during the regular season the Rays allowed just 3.8 runs/game themselves. It stands to reason that the game should be more competitive now. Also the Rays are going with Charlie Morton, the winner of the Wild Card Game, who allowed just one run across five innings. The Rays have now won Morton's last six starts. Morton has actually been one of the more consistent starters in the American League all season. He has a 23-11 team start record overall and his numbers at home are very good. His ERA is 2.59. His WHIP is 0.96. In their only previous trip to Tampa this year (very early in season), the Astros actually lost three of the four games. Play TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs OVER 56 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Over We know the Chiefs are going to score as they've put up at least 26 points in all games started by Patrick Mahomes. They've gone over 30 in three of four this year. The one exception was a 28-10 win over Oakland where they scored all 28 points in a single quarter. The Colts defense just gave up 31 points in a loss to the Raiders last week, so this hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. But of course, the Chiefs defense isn't very good either. They've given up 26 points or more to every opponent but the Raiders. Indianapolis should be good for at least 24 points by the end of this game as that's the threshold they've hit in three of four games, a matchup with Tennessee (top five scoring defense) the lone exception. The Over is 6-0 when the Chiefs gained at least 350 total yards in their last game. They gained 438 in last week's wild 34-30 win over the Lions. That game could have featured even more scoring were in not for turnovers by both teams. The Chiefs defense actually ended up giving up more than 450 yards. Three of the Chiefs games this year have seen at least 61 total points scored. This number is high, but the issue is oddsmakers just don't seem willing to open the number higher. Until they do, KC strictly remains an Over team. Play OVER Indianapolis-Kansas City AAA *Bonus Pick Chiefs 1st Half |
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10-06-19 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 118 h 17 m | Show |
THis is an 8* play on ARIZONA A battle of winless teams has "upset" written all over it, if you can even call it that. The 0-3-1 Cardinals are underdogs to the 0-4 Bengals, but it's the dog that's played better in our opinion. Cincinnati looked absolutely dreadful Monday night in a 27-3 loss to Pittsburgh. This team just doesn't have much. It was just 175 total yards gained against a bad Steelers defense. Two times in the first three weeks, the Bengals were game on the road. They came up one point short in Seattle and only four points short in Buffalo. But really the only "good" game was the Seattle one. They were shutout in the first half by the Bills before a second half rally proved futile. Cincy has gotten crushed by the 49ers 41-17, their only home game so far. Arizona was competitive the first two games, tying Detroit and losing by only six to Baltimore. But losing back to back home games by double digits was certainly disappointing. Still, we rate Arizona as the better team here. With them taking the points, it's an automatic play for us. Both teams have offensive line issues, but the Bengals are worse. Kyler Murray will make more plays than Andy Dalton. Cincy is not only 1-6 ATS off a division loss, they are 1-6 straight up. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the TITANS The 2-2 Titans host the 3-1 Bills and the big story heading into this game is who will play quarterback for the road team. Josh Allen was knocked out of last week's 16-10 loss to the Patriots. For much of the week, there was speculation that Matt Barkley would have to start for Buffalo. But Allen has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and will be under center. We're still taking Tennessee. After back to back losses, the Titans looked good last week in a 24-10 upset of Atlanta. You wouldn't know it was an upset simply by watching as they controlled that game from start to finish. After playing three of their first four games on the road, it'll be nice playing at home this week. The Titans were 12-4 SU at home the last two years, but did lose here to the Colts in Week 2. But they were ahead in that game in the 4th quarter. Buffalo left a lot on the line last week in an unsuccessful bid to upset the Patriots at home. The Bills did win their first two road games, but those were against the Jets and Giants. Tennessee is better and should shut down the Bills offense. Turnovers could be a determining factor. Marcus Mariota is the only QB in the league to start every game and not have a turnover. Allen has six interceptions and two fumbles. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins OVER 42 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -102 | 53 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Patriots could go Over this total themselves. Mark it down. One of the NFL's two 4-0 teams, New England heads to D.C. this weekend to take on the Redskins, who are one of the league's four 0-4 teams. Obviously, this is a gross mismatch. But the pointspread reflects that. What the O/U line doesn't reflect, however, it just how bad the Washington defense is. They gave up over 30 points the last three games, one of them against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (who were struggling to move the ball previous to that game) and then 24 more to the Giants last week. It easily could have been more than 24 points allowed last week, but the Giants turned it over four times. You can bet Tom Brady won't be that careless with the ball this week. The Patriots offense will also be eager to atone for last week's subpar effort, which came against a very good Bills defense. They go from facing one of the league's best defenses to one of its worst. Colt McCoy (yikes!) and the Washington offense probably won't do much here, but a single TD or maybe 10 points might be all we need here for an Over. Play OVER New England-Washington AAA |
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10-05-19 | Kings v. Oilers -150 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on EDMONTON It's the season opener for Los Angeles while Edmonton is playing its second game after beating Vancouver 3-2 on Opening Night. We don't think that's any kind of advantage here for the Kings, and possibly it may prove to be a disadvantage. For starters, this is not a good team. LA finished last in the Pacific a season ago with only 71 points. The only team in the league that finished with fewer points was Ottawa (64). The Oilers have at least gotten a chance to get out on the ice and skate. They looked pretty good in downing the Canucks as they scored three goals on just 22 shots. The most encouraging sign of all was Connor McDavid scoring the game winner. The Kings do not project to be a whole lot better for the 2019-20 season and are an easy fade here. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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10-05-19 | Rays v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER We were on the Astros in Game 1, a relatively easy call as they rolled to a 6-2 victory. Justin Verlander did his job by throwing seven shutout innings and Houston led 6-0 by the time they went to the bullpen. Though Tampa Bay did end up scoring twice in the top of the eighth, they were faced with an insurmountable edge. Those two runs that the Rays scored weren't totally insignificant though, pardon the pun, as they did send the game Over the total. Given that the game was still a scoreless tie through four innings, that had to be a heartbreaker for Under bettors. We'll provide them with some much needed relief for Game 2 though as this one should stay Under. The Rays go from facing Verlander to now having to deal w/ Gerritt Cole. That's rough. Cole set team records in the regular season by winning his last 16 decisions and striking out 326 batters. His 2.50 ERA was not only a career-best, but also topped all American League starters this year. So look for the Rays to have another tough night at the plate. If they are to have any chance of winning Game 2, it will be because of their own starter, Blake Snell, last year's Cy Young winner. While it's been awhile since Snell pitched more than three innings (missed two months due to elbow surgery), we've got confidence that he'll pitch relatively well in this spot. The Under is 4-0 in Snell's previous four starts vs. the Astros. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Houston AAA |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Right about now, you won't find many takers willing to step up and get in front of this Ohio State juggernaut as the Buckeyes have rolled through their first five opponents. Those five opponents have been outscored 262-43. Half of the points allowed came in the first game, a 45-21 over Florida Atlantic. Nebraska was no match last week, even with the game in Lincoln, as OSU won there 48-7. But one team we're banking on "stepping up to bat" is Michigan State. The Spartans will be Ohio State's toughest test yet in what promises to be the first game the Buckeyes don't score at least 40 points. Michigan State did give up 31 last week to Indiana, but continues to have one of the best defenses in the entire country as they allow just 15 points game. A straight up win is probably out of the realm of possibility Saturday night in Columbus, but the underdog should be able to keep this game relatively tight. How often do you see Michigan State getting this many points? Not often. In the past five seasons, the Spartans have been an underdog of 20 or more points only two times. Those games were against Michigan and Ohio State in the forgettable 2016 season and both times Sparty covered, losing by only a total of nine points. They were a double digit dog once last year (at Penn State) and took the game on the field. Dantonio has won twice in Columbus before. The last two meetings haven't gone well, but we expect a focused effort from the underdog Saturday night that will lead them to covering the spread. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Georgia v. Tennessee +25.5 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -107 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE You probably won't be seeing anyone pick Tennessee on College GameDay Saturday morning on ESPN. The Vols come into this game with Georgia as massive underdogs at Neyland Stadium and that can't come as a shock given their early season losses to Georgia State and BYU. Georgia is a top three team in the country having been to the playoff each of the past two years. But with the pointspread, there's hope for UT as Georgia is just 3-9-1 ATS the L13 years in this rivalry game. This will be among the biggest pointspreads ever for Georgia-Tennessee. While there's no defending those first two games for Tennessee, or the last one against Florida, they are certainly capable of staying within the number. Before being blown out each of the last two years by UGA, the previous five meetings were decided by a total of 23 points. Both teams are off a bye, which makes this an interesting handicap. We played against Georgia two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame. That was a winner for us. This game now means more to Tennessee as their season could snowball rather quickly. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact the Vols are just 3-13 ATS their previous 16 home games. But rarely are they getting a number of this magnitude. They failed to cover a similar spread last year vs. Alabama, but they're a better team now (despite the record). Coach Jeremy Pruitt is being coy with his quarterback situation, which may provide an early advantage. Bottom line is that the number is just too large here to pass up. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Rice v. UAB OVER 42.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER UAB will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss it suffered last week at Western Kentucky. The Blazers were three-point favorites, but went down by a score of 20-13 thanks in no small part to turning the ball over four times. All four turnovers were interceptions thrown by QB Tyler Johnston III. They led to just six points (two field goals) by WKU, but it could have been worse as one came at the end of the first half. It was a big step back for Johnston, who had thrown for over 300 yards each of the previous two games. It was also UAB's 1st Conference USA loss since the meaningless regular season finale against Middle Tennessee last year. Before that, the Blazers had won 11 straight conference games. They are unbeaten at home since the program returned to the field in 2917 (14-0 SU). Rice meanwhile is still searching for its first win of the year as they are 0-5 against what has been a challenging schedule. The Owls have just three wins going back to 2017, but have generally been more competitive in 2019. They took Louisiana Tech to OT last week, for example. But the defense is still giving up a 68.3% completion rate to opposing QB's and 6.3 yards per play. So sfter scoring a season-low 13 points last week, we look for the UAB offense to rebound here. This was a 42-0 game last year. Look for Rice to definitely get on the board Saturday and them doing so should be enough to help this one get Over a low number. The Over has hit each of the last four times the teams have met here in Birmingham. Play OVER Rice-UAB AAA |
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10-05-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA Northwestern's reputation as a dog seems to precede itself here. While the Wildcats did cover last week as road dogs, they did so thanks to a huge number at Wisconsin. The Badgers couldn't possibly match the intensity from the previous week against Michigan and that showed right from the opening kickoff. But don't forget about what happened two weeks ago when Northwestern hosted Michigan State. They were the rare instance of the public being on the dog and got waxed by Sparty 31-10. We took MSU in that one, saying that Pat Fitzgerald's ATS record as an underdog didn't hold any water with us this year. Well, that still holds true. Northwestern was very lucky to win 10 games last year. Whatever their final record in 2019 ends up being will reflect that as luck won't be so good this season. In three losses so far, the Wildcats have scored 7, 10 and 15 points. Yes, Nebraska got manhandled last Saturday night at home by Ohio State. But the Buckeyes are manhandling everybody right now. The Cornhuskers can score (31+ points in each of the first four games) and will score enough here to cover this spread with room to spare. Lay it! Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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10-05-19 | Texas v. West Virginia +11.5 | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WEST VIRGINIA West Virginia is an ugly 3-1, but their record is nevertheless 3-1. The fact that they've won ugly doesn't make them any less dangerous this week in Morgantown. Yes, they only beat James Madison by 7 despite being +3 in the turnover margin. They also needed some good fortune to win at Kansas last week. But let's not forget the only other time they've been a home dog. A highly touted NC State team came to Morgantown and got beat 44-27. Texas best be on high alert here or the same fate could be awaiting them Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns do have a perceived advantage in that they are coming off a bye week. Before the bye, they picked up a big win over Oklahoma State, 36-30 in Austin. But this is a team that often struggles to cover when its favored. Last year, they were 1-4 ATS as an away favorite. Two of those games - at Maryland and Oklahoma State - resulted in outright defeats. West Virginia is not a home dog all that often that and this will be the first season it's happened twice since 2014. Maybe that's a sign of the times in Morgantown, but don't make the mistake of laying this number when history suggests the game will be close. The Mountaineers have beaten the Longhorns three of the last four seasons, including 42-41 last year in Austin. Play on WEST VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico +7 v. San Jose State | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW MEXICO Truthfully, neither of these teams should have covered last week. San Jose State, getting 19.5 against Air Force, was still down 41-10 with just under four minutes to go in the game. They scored a touchdown to make it 41-17. What happened next is the kind of gift/horror that only those fully entrenched in the betting community can lay claim to experiencing. Air Force decided to go for it on 4th & 1 from their own 22! They failed to pick up the yard and San Jose State quickly responded with another TD (just 52 seconds remaining) to steal the cover. New Mexico did something similar in its game vs. Liberty, scoring a TD with just 43 seconds remaining. While they still lost 17-10, the Lobos happened to be getting 7.5 points. Who will be lucky enough to cover this week? For us, this comes down to the simple fact that San Jose State should never be bet as a favorite. The last time the Spartans were favored by more than a field goal against a FBS team was 2015! New Mexico might be bad, but they're not THAT bad. San Jose State is only 8-12 straight up its last 20 conference home games and has lost 24 of its last 29 games overall. New Mexico has covered four of the last five times it's been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the Lobos and the points here. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Twins-Yankees These teams certainly aren't lacking in the run production department. They are the only two teams in baseball history to hit 300+ home runs in a single season. Not coincidentally, they finished 1-2 in overall runs scored this year. The last time they met was late July and not only did all three games go Over the total, all of them saw at minimum 14 runs scored. We know it's now the postseason, but this seems like a really low O/U line for these two clubs. Neither starter really impresses us as Jose Berrios (Twins) has a 4.85 ERA his past seven starts, having given up at least five runs in three of them. James Paxton (Yankees) seemingly got hot down the stretch as the Yankees have won all of his last 11 starts. But his last one saw him have to leave after one inning, so there's concern there. The Over is 8-2 in Paxton's last 10 starts, by the way. Yes, the Yankees have an incredible bullpen, but if the Twins lineup can get to Paxton, that won't be as big of a factor. We figure both teams are going to hit their fair share of home runs in this game and that means the Over is in play. Both sides are clearly capable of putting at least five runs on the board in Game 1. Play OVER Twins-Yankees AAA |
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10-04-19 | Rays v. Astros -215 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on HOUSTON With the best rotation in the game, it seems like everyone is picking the Astros to at least make it to the World Series. They definitely appear to have the decided edge for Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay as Justin Verlander will be pitching with plenty of rest. Verlander is likely to finish in the top two of the Cy Young voting this year. His main competition will be teammate Gerrit Cole. Verlander has a 2.62 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 34 starts this year, 24 of those resulting in Houston wins. The opposing pitcher for Game 1, Tyler Glasnow, actually has a lower ERA (1.78) and comparable WHIP (0.89) but in roughly one-third the starts Verlander has made. He missed a bulk of the season due to injury and also averages far less innings per start than does Verlander. While Houston has been off since Sunday, Tampa Bay obviously had to win the Wild Card Game to get to this point. This week has seen them go from Toronto to Oakland to Houston in a five-day span, which is a tough stretch, especially seeing as they're now matched up with one of the top two teams in baseball. The Astros were 60-21 at home in the regular season. They are 30-14 in day games (104-48 L3 seasons). Go with the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-04-19 | Blackhawks v. Flyers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the start to the season for both teams and the game is being played in the Czech Republic (Prague) For the Blackhawks, Prague is better than Philly where they've lost 17 of their last 19 trips. There is some enthusiasm for this Chicago club despite missing the playoffs each of the last two seasons. There was a lot of turnover in personnel, but the biggest issue that needs fixing is on the goals allowed side of the ledger where they were second worst in the entire league last year. They gave up a fair number in the preseason, but with Corey Crawford back between the pipes, we should see improvement in that category moving forward. The Flyers have missed the playoffs four straight years and underwent some serious offseason changes as well. Carter Hart, who was a rookie last season, is now firmly entrenched as the #1 goalie here. Hart posted a 2.83 goals against average and .917 save percentage in his rookie season. With him spending more time between the pipes, we should see a reduction in the number of goals allowed by the Flyers this season. The Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams and this is a high number for the first game. The Under is also 16-2-4 the Blackhawks last 22 games vs. the Metropolitan. Play UNDER Chicago-Philadelphia AAA |
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10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the DODGERS Two hot teams meet in this NLDS as the Dodgers have won nine straght and the Nationals have won seven straight. Washington got here thanks to a fielding gaffe by Milwaukee's right fielder in the bottom of the eighth Tuesday night. That one error allowed three runs to score and the Nats to prevail 4-3 in the Wild Card Game. Thankfully, we had the Brewers on the run line (+1.5). We'll look to fade Washington again tonight as it'll take a lot more than an error to get by the juggernaut that is the Dodgers. Consider this: LA is 59-22 at home this year. They are the clear favorites to win the NL pennant as they have by far the best pitching in the game today. They led the NL in ERA at home, on the road and overall. They also have best defensive efficiency of any team. They also scored more runs than every other National League team. Really, there isn't a single category where this team isn't the best. They don't even feel the need to go with Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 as it'll be Walker Buehler instead. That's fine by us as the Dodgers won 20 of Buehler's 30 starts in the regular season. He has a 2.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this year. His ERA in two starts vs. the Nationals was 2.92. Pat Corbin will be the Game 1 starter for Washington, not a bad option, but he's facing the superior lineup. Corbin's numbers noticeably rose on the road and that left him with an 8-9 team start record in those starts. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES One bad loss to the Buccaneers and everyone seems to have 'jumped ship' when it comes to last year's Super Bowl runner-up. But the Rams still put up over 500 total yards of offense last week and were unbeaten entering the game. They had 36 first downs. Jared Goff hasn't looked great, but he'll be facing a Seattle defense that's largely gone untested in the first quarter of the season, thanks to facing a slew of subpar quarterbacks. The look ahead line for this game had the Rams favored, so there's definitely been a swing in perception. We will look to take advantage of that. The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS at home so far as they barely beat the Bengals and lost to the Brees-less Saints. Besides beating the winless Bengals, their other wins have been against the Steelers and Cardinals. Those three teams are a combined 1-10-1 with the only win occurring because the Steelers played the Bengals Monday night. Remember Seattle was the fortunate opponent of Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. This will be the first time the Rams have been an underdog in a regular season game since 2017. They've won 16 of the last 19 road games. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SOUTH ALABAMA South Alabama is just trying to stay competitive, let alone win a game at this point. The Jaguars are 1-4 with all four losses being by double digits. The only team they beat (Jackson State) is a FCS school. But you can say the same exact thing about Thursday's opponent, Georgia Southern. The Eagles only win was against Maine and that was by just eight points. Otherwise, they are 0-3 against FBS competition. One of those losses was close. Minnesota beat them 35-32 three weeks ago, but in that game GSU gained less than 200 total yards of offense. They gained less than 100 yds of total offense in a 55-3 loss to LSU. Now those are big time schools they were facing. But at home last week, the Eagles lost 37-24 to Louisiana and that was after a bye. With these kind of paltry offensive numbers, Georgia Southern should not be laying this many points in a road game, even if it is against a team perceived to be as bad as South Alabama is right now. Our call is that the Jaguars figure it out enough to at the very least keep this one competitive. Back in the season opener, they were able to stay within 14 points of Nebraska, in Lincoln. Certainly then, they should be able to stay within double digits of a conference opponent, at home? Play SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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10-03-19 | Panthers v. Lightning -173 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay turned in arguably the most dominant regular season ever last year, outscoring opponents by 103 goals and finishing with 125 points. But none of that mattered come playoff time when they were shockingly ousted in the 1st round by Columbus. It's not just that they lost the series either. They got swept! So we expect the Lightning to strike fast here in 2019-2020 and that means two points tonight at the expense of their Floridian rivals, the Panthers. Florida did not make the playoffs last year and should be considered a fringe contender to do so this year. As you may have guessed, the Lightning have dominated this in-state "rivalry." They won all four games last year and have taken seven of the eight meetings over the past two seasons, including all of them at home. The Panthers weren't exactly a good road team either last year as their record was 16-26 away from home. This is a good early season price to take on the Lightning as lines are still soft. Our guess is that a month from now, they'd be -200 or so on the money line against the Panthers. The Lightning were 32-7-2 in regular season home games last year. They won't be losing tonight. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Division winners Atlanta and St. Louis meet in this National League Division Series. This will be their first time playing since May. There were two series between them that took place that month. The Braves took two of three in both. They've got the homefield advantage, which seems important given that virtually every Cardinals starter seems to perform substantially worse on the road. That's something we'll definitely be tracking in this series. Miles Mikolas is the Game 1 starter for St. Louis. He went just 4-8 in 17 road starts during the regular season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. So that you can compare, he has a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. The one time Mikolas faced the Braves this year, it was at home. He allowed three runs and seven hits, so it's reasonable to expect him to give up more Thursday. Atlanta is going with Dallas Keuchel as its Game 1 starter. While Keuchel's last five starts have all stayed Under, he certainly hasn't pitched well in two of the previous three. In fact, the Braves have lost Keuchel's last three starts with him posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. There are some questions about how well the St. Louis offense will perform in a postseason environment, but the Over is 7-1 their last 8 playoff games. They have also gone Over 41 of the last 65 times they've faced a left-handed starter. The Braves are one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. The Over is 6-1 the last seven times they've hosted St. Louis. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta AAA |
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10-02-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Two teams expected to compete for first place in the Pacific meet Wednesday night in Sin City as the Golden Knights host the Sharks. By the end of the regular season last year, both were caught looking up at the Flames in the standings. That set up a 1st round playoff matchup, which went to a Game 7 and saw the Sharks ultimately prevail. They haven't forgotten that series in Las Vegas as the Knights dropped both Games 6 & 7 in overtime with Game 6 going to 2 OT's. So even though this is just the first game of the season, there will be some major revenge on the mind. Interestingly, five of the seven games in that playoff series saw at least seven total goals scored. That's a lot of scoring, especially for playoff hockey. We don't think the skaters will be nearly as prolific to start the season. Vegas was among the league's best (3rd overall) in terms of giving up goals at home, allowing only 2.41 per game. Note that the two games in last year's playoff series that did not go Over both took place here. San Jose is a different team this year with Joe Pavelski gone. But their save percentage (.889 last year) can only go up. Play UNDER San Jose-Vegas AAA |
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10-02-19 | Capitals v. Blues -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on ST. LOUIS We like the Blues on Opening Night to win a battle of the last two Stanley Cup Champions. In case you forgot, it was St. Louis hoisting the Cup last June for the first time in franchise history, thus completing one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds that we have ever seen - in any sport. Right after the New Year, the Blues had the fewest points in the league. They wound up winning it all. A big reason for that stunning turn of events was the play of rookie netminder Jordan Binnington. Now it's a full season of Binnington between the pipes in St. Louis. So we expect there to be little to no drop off for this team this year. For Washington, it very much feels like the 2019-20 season is going to be their last run at a Cup. Alex Ovechkin is under contract for the next two seasons, but both Nicklas Backstrom and goalie Braden Holtby are set to become free agents next summer. In this same position last year, the Capitals delivered a 7-0 win against the Bruins as it was them playing at home watching a banner getting raise. The proverbial skate is on the other foot this time. The Caps have failed to win the last six times they've been ML underdogs. St. Louis won 20 of its last 29 home games to end last season. They start this year with two points. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -130 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OAKLAND This year's AL Wild Card Game features two franchises not exactly known for being deep in the pocketbooks, but the A's and Rays are both rich in pitching and most are going to expect a low-scoring game here. Oakland really surged in the second half as it won 97 games for the second consecutive season. They were just 37-36 on June 16th, but have gone 60-29 ever since. That's impressive. Starting this winner-take-all game for them will be Sean Manaea, an excellent choice in our opinion. Manaea is undefeated since returning from shoulder surgery, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in five games. He has 30 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings while giving up only four runs and 16 hits. He's walked only seven batters, so you're looking at a 0.78 WHIP as well. Tampa Bay scored the fewest runs of any American League playoff team, so it's a good matchup here for the Athletics, who get the game at home as well. They were 52-29 at home in the regular season. Three teams had more home victories than the A's - the Dodgers, Houston and the Yankees. It's interesting that there were only five games in which TB was a road dog of +125 to +175. They had a losing record in those games. Charlie Morton starts here for the Rays and he's actually been one of the more consistent starters in the AL. But his WHIP is noticeably higher on the road. The bullpens are going to play a role here, but we just don't know where the runs are going to come from for the Rays. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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10-01-19 | Brewers +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Brewers season appeared to be over when MVP candidate Christian Yelich fouled a ball off his knee. But instead of folding, the team surged in Yelich's absence, going 22-10 the final 32 games and earning this Wild Card berth (almost won the division). It's not always pretty with Milwaukee, but they do have one massive edge over Washington and that's the bullpen. The Nationals not only possess the worst bullpen of the 10 playoff teams this year, in terms of ERA they have one of the five worst pens in the last 21 seasons! It should be noted that the other four teams in the bottom five averaged 99 losses in their respective seasons. Milwaukee, on the other hand, won because of their bullpen not in spite of it. In September, the Brewers turned in a 3.01 ERA, right at the top of all of baseball. As the decided favorite Tuesday, Washington is under a lot of pressure and this is a franchise that has often come up small in the postseason. If the Brewers can get an early lead, they can turn to the bullpen, which has been so dominant, to stay ahead. History suggests that starter Brandon Woodruff won't go long here. But if he can help get his team an early lead, they're golden. It's not like Woodruff isn't the right option to start here either. The team won 18 of the 22 games he started this year! The Nationals are going with Max Scherzer and while that seemingly gives them an edge, they were basically a coinflip proposition with him on the mound this year, going 14-13 in his 27 starts. They were 6-9 in his 15 home starts. Scherzer also struggled a bit down the stretch with a 6.11 ERA his last three starts. We can easily see Milwaukee winning this game, or if they lose it'll be by just one run. Take the run line and if the Brewers do win, don't be surprised if it's because of the bullpen. Play MILWAUKEE on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -118 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Neither team playing Monday night has done much of the way in scoring in 2019 and neither has done any kind of winning. The Bengals and Steelers both come in at 0-3 with the former averaging only 18.0 points/game while the latter is at just 16.3. The Steelers have the obvious excuse of not having Ben Roethlisberger, but they still put up 20 last week in a loss to San Francisco with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While the Roethlisberger injury definitely altered our outlook on the Steelers season, more concerning in the interim is how poorly the defense has played. They've given up 28.3 points/game so far and could have given up a lot more than 24 last week were it not for the 49ers turning the ball over so much. Three of San Francisco's five turnovers came inside the red zone. So it definitely could have - and should have - been a lot worse for Pittsburgh last week. They allowed 446 total yards to the Niners. On the year, the Steelers are allowing 443 yards/game. The Bengals defense knows what it's like to be shredded by the 49ers as well. They gave up 572 total yards to them in 41-17 loss back in Week 2. On the bright side, Andy Dalton is actually averaging over 300 yards passing per game. The Over is 5-2 the Steelers last seven games on Monday Night Football and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 division games. While the offenses have been struggling, this one could easily turn into a shootout with two struggling defenses that can't stop anybody. Play OVER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh AAA |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47 | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER The competition has not been fierce, but the Cowboys have looked good so far. They are 3-0 and averaging 32.3 points per game. Kellen Moore is doing a very good job as the new offensive coordinator, QB Dak Prescott is playing as well as anyone in the league right now and RB Ezekiel Elliot hasn't skipped a beat. New Orleans will be the Cowboys toughest opponent yet, but of course the Saints are without Drew Brees. These teams played a Thursday night game last season and the Cowboys won 13-10. Expect this tussle to feature a lot more scoring. It took touchdowns from both the defense and special teams to get New Orleans to 33 points last week as they pulled the upset in Seattle. But now they are playing in the Superdome. We expect Teddy Bridgewater to play well here. The Over is 8-3 in the Saints last 11 September games. It's also cashed in the last five conference games for Dallas. The Saints defense, which isn't as good as it was last year, did just give up over 500 yards to Seattle. The only offenses Dallas has faced are the Giants (with Eli Manning), the Redskins and the Dolphins. So it wouldn't be fair to call them "good" just yet. The Saints always put up points at home. This time Dallas should be able to match them. Play OVER Dallas-New Orleans AAA |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE The Seahawks starting 2-0 was a little surprising, but probably less so compared to last week's home loss. Seattle had to like its chances going into last week as they were facing a Saints team without Drew Brees. Unfortunately, the joke was on them as they lost 33-27 despite almost a 2 to 1 edge in total yards (515 to 265). The problem was allowing the Saints to score two non-offensive touchdowns, one on a punt return and the other a fumble return. We like the Seahawks to bounce back from that defeat as they play Arizona this week. The Cardinals haven't won, but they did tie, with the primary problem being they always fall behind in games. Last week they lost 38-20 at home to a Carolina team that didn't have Cam Newton. Kyler Murray is running for his life as he's been sacked more times (16) than all but one other quarterback. He hasn't faced a ton of blitzes but is dropping back to pass at a very high rate with 137 attempts in three games. On defense, Arizona is missing both of its starting corners. Tough to really like anything about the Cardinals right now. Seattle is 5-0-1 in its past six trips to the desert. They should win this one handily after putting up so many yards last week. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER We like the Seattle-Arizona game to go Under too. Sure, we talked a good bit about the Seahawks putting up a lot of yards last week and the Cardinals defense being down both of its starting corners. But Seattle can't score enough to send this one over by itself. Their defense played better against the Saints than the final score indicated. We went through this in the analysis on the side. But New Orleans scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Arizona did give up 4 TD passes to Kyle Allen last week, but should play better this week. The offense hasn't scored more than 24 in regulation this year and their total points would look a lot worse if not for the 4th quarter comeback they had vs. the Lions. The Under is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home games. It is also 11-5 the last 16 times Seattle gave up 30 or more points in its last game. Play UNDER Seattle-Arizona AAA |
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09-29-19 | Reds -115 v. Pirates | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI The Reds may not have improved to the level they desired for 2019, but this is a team on the rise. Expect them to be a trendy “sleeper” for 2020. The pitching staff is good as only three teams in the National League have allowed less runs. They probably do need to add a “bat” in the offseason as they scored the 4th fewest runs among NL clubs and were last in the division in that regard. But they did win 4-2 on Saturday, beating a Pirates team whose future outlook is nowhere near as bright. Pittsburgh fell to last in the Central this year and probably will be there again at this time next year. Nothing is on the line Sunday at PNC Park (except pride) and although yesterday was their first win in nine tries here this season, we expect Cincinnati to be the ones to close out the season with a win. Does starter Tyler Mahle have the most inspiring numbers? Hardly. But, even though Trevor Bauer was originally going to start this game, there is a reason that the Reds are still favored today. It’s a simple one. They are the better TEAM. Trevor Williams, who starts for Pittsburgh today, can’t be trusted. He has a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season and those numbers have been even worse the last seven starts. Williams has allowed 4 HRs in his last two starts as well. Reds end the year on a high note. AAA |