Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Within one week, Michigan State pulled three consecutive upsets, two of them coming against top 5 teams (Ohio St, Illinois). However, the schedule finally appeared to catch up with them on Sunday when they fell behind Maryland 11-0 on their way to a 73-55 road loss. The Spartans have largely been overrated by the oddsmakers much of the season. They are 7-16 ATS and that record was obviously a lot worse before the three straight upsets. The first of the three upsets was not against a top 5 team, it was against Indiana. Sparty won that game in Bloomington 78-71 as a 6.5-point underdog. But they are not an underdog this time. This is a problem because as a favorite, MSU is a disastrous 2-11 ATS. Just how much the line has shifted for this rematch is a bit perplexing to us. Indiana badly needs this win to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They’ve lost three in a row and their second leading scorer is out. So that’s probably why the home team is favored in this one. But we’ve still got the Hoosiers rated as the better team and home court advantage doesn’t mean all that much. Grab the points. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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03-02-21 | Hawks +4 v. Heat | Top | 94-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA So Atlanta has made a coaching change, firing Lloyd Pierce after a very disappointing run where the team lost 11 of its last 15 games. The Hawks now sit 11th in the East, two games out of the 8th and three games back of Miami, the team they’ll face tonight. The Heat are trending in the opposite direction with a 6-0 straight up and against the spread record the last six games. They just beat Atlanta 109-99 on Sunday, which got Pierce fired. Before that, the Heat even beat the Jazz. But despite this recent form, the Heat still have a worse point differential than the Hawks this season. Miami has a losing record in conference play and a 5-14 record when losing the rebounding battle. Atlanta generally rebounds the basketball well. They actually outrebounded Miami Sunday. But Trae Young had a poor shooting night. Look for him to shoot better tonight and the rest of the team to play inspired following the change on the bench. Miami is just 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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03-02-21 | Baylor -4 v. West Virginia | Top | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BAYLOR For the first time all year, we’ve got Baylor coming off a loss. The Bears went down at Kansas on Saturday, losing 71-58 as a 4.5 point favorite. It was only their second game since a 21-day absence due to COVID. Quite frankly, the #3 ranked team in the country has not looked good in either game. They could barely beat the last place team in the Big 12, Iowa State, in the first game back. Tonight they have to head to Morgantown to face West Virginia, who is ranked #6 in the latest AP Poll. We think it was probably unfair to drop Baylor a spot based on one loss, though that move was pretty predictable. West Virginia is good, but we just don’t think they are the sixth best team in the country. They are 0-3 vs. top five opponents this season. They did win by 22 on Saturday, but that was vs. Kansas State. Baylor had its worst offensive game of the season against Kansas and was outrebounded pretty badly as well. But we expect the shots to start falling again and them to resemble the team that looked so dominant pre-layoff. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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03-01-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER St. Louis has given up a lot of goals so far, 67 to be exact, which is more than you’d expect from a team with their record. They’ve also scored 67. They are coming off a win in San Jose Saturday where the final score was 7-6. But you may be shocked to learn that the Blues’ O/U record this year is only 12-9. When their games go Over, like Saturday, they often go way Over. But four of the last six games have seen five or less total goals scored. Tonight they face an Anaheim team that hasn’t won in nearly three wins. When the Ducks did last win, it was a 1-0 final. They’ve collected only 12 goals in the six games since and have the fewest number scored in the league (42) for the season. The Under is 7-3 in Ducks home games when the total is 5.5. Play on UNDER AAA |
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03-01-21 | Nuggets -5.5 v. Bulls | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver should probably be higher than seventh in the West as only four teams in the conference have a scoring differential. The Nuggets haven’t done well in games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring, going 0-6 ATS when the total is 230 points or higher. While the total could close that high again tonight in Chicago, the Nuggets are coming off a 30-point win in Oklahoma City and should easily make it back to back wins. The Bulls are improved, but could only score 97 in a home loss to Phoenix on Friday. Most of their recent victories have been against bad teams. In fact, they are just 4-11 straight up when the opponent is .500 or better. The Bulls were supposed to play against Toronto yesterday, but COVID protocol prevented that game from happening. While this is no longer the second night of a back to back, look for Chicago’s rhythm to be disrupted. There’s too much talent to ignore with this Nuggets team as Jamal Murray is averaging 30.1 points his last nine games and Nikola Jokic just put up his eighth triple double of the season. Play on DENVER AAA |
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03-01-21 | North Carolina -2 v. Syracuse | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina invades the Carrier Dome Monday night, looking to build off its impressive upset of #11 Florida State over the weekend. Now the Tar Heels have struggled on their travels this season, failing to cover seven of nine games while winning just three straight up. But Syracuse is reeling. The Orange dropped two road games last week and allowed 169 points to Duke and Georgia Tech. They had their doors blown off in the Duke game as they trailed 52-34 at halftime. They allowed another 50-point half Saturday in Atlanta, though this time it was the second. We know UNC can score (82.3 PPG L4) and they should have no problem doing so tonight. It was an 81-75 win for the Tar Heels when these teams played in Chapel Hill on January 12th, even though it was a poor shooting night. This is a team that probably deserves to finish in the top four in the ACC. We see their rebounding edge as the difference maker tonight. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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02-28-21 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Expect plenty of goals to be scored in this game. Detroit has put five on the board each of its last two, including a 5-3 win right here in Chicago last night. The Blackhawks will look to respond with their sixth game of 3+ goals in their last eight. Chicago has had three games with five or more goals this month. Three of their last four games have seen eight or more total goals scored. Three of the Red Wings previous five games have seen at least seven total goals scored. Their power play, which finally scored a goal last night, was long overdue to break through and should continue to improve if they are allotted some more opportunities tonight. There were 68 combined shots in last night’s game, 36 from Chicago and 32 from Detroit. We have every reason to believe this will be another “wide open” game. The Over is 4-0 this season when the Blackhawks are off a loss by two or more goals. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-28-21 | Iowa +4.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA This is some tough scheduling for Iowa, who just had to go to Michigan (lost 79-57) and now must travel to face another Top 10 opponent, Ohio State. But let’s not forget the fact that the Hawkeyes are a Top 10 team themselves despite being only 5-5 their last 10 games. Ohio State is not just off one loss, but two, as they lost to Michigan last Sunday and then Michigan State on Thursday. This is a revenge game for Iowa as they lost by four at home to the Buckeyes last month. Both teams are dealing with injuries, so look for Iowa to lean heavily on Player of the Year candidate Luke Garza, who averages 24.3 points/game. He had only 16 against Michigan on what was a bad shooting night for the Naismith Finalist. He’ll bounce back here. OSU is a better matchup for Iowa than most other Big 10 teams. Neither of these two are all that great defensively, which should play right into the hands of the Hawkeyes, who are top five in the country in scoring. They did lead at the half in the first meeting before letting things slip away. Not this time. Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-28-21 | Clippers +2 v. Bucks | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLIPPERS It's a heavyweight matchup Sunday afternoon on ABC with the Clippers taking on the Bucks. Both teams are currently trying to chase down the top spot in their respective conferences. In the East, Milwaukee only trails Philadelphia by 1.5 games (after the Sixers lost Saturday) and is eventually going to pass them. We’re not as certain about the Clippers catching the insanely hot Jazz, but being only 3.5 (games) back of Utah right now (given how hot the Jazz have been) isn’t a bad place to be. We’re siding with LA in this one as not only are they 4-2 SU/ATS in the six games they’ve been underdogs in, but the Bucks are short-handed with Jrue Holliday and Jaylen Adams both in COVID protocol and DJ Augustin out for personal reasons. Don’t think they can count on Donte DiVincenzo scoring a career-high 24 points again like he did vs. New Orleans on Thursday. It wasn’t too long ago that Milwaukee lost five in a row. The Clippers are basically at full strength (only missing Patrick Patterson) and had seven players finish in double figures last time out. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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02-28-21 | Memphis -4.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS While it may be “too little, too late” (to get into the NCAA Tournament), Memphis is making a late run at things. Penny Hardaway’s team has won seven of its last eight (only loss by 2 points) and four straight to get to 13-6 on the year. The Tigers are also 7-1 ATS their last eight after being 0-7 ATS their previous seven games. Today they are locking horns with Cincinnati, who has won six of its last seven. So we’ve got two relatively “hot” teams here, yet the one playing on the road is the favorite. That should tell you “all you need to know” about this one. The Bearcats are 0-9 ATS their last nine Sunday games including a 38-point loss at Houston last week. Before they beat Tulane 91-71 on Friday, Cincy’s previous five wins were all by three points or less, so they’ve been lucky. Memphis is #2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency as it is holding opponents to 26.6% shooting - for the year - on three-point attempts. The Bearcats third leading scorer David DeJulius just opted out for the rest of the season. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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02-27-21 | Penguins v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These are two teams we haven’t talked about much. The Penguins have 21 points, tied for fourth in the East Division. The Islanders are two points ahead of them (23) and in third. Both have won five of their last seven games. But the Islanders have won their last two while Pittsburgh is off a loss. In that loss, the Pens gave up five goals (to Washington). The Isles are off a game where they scored seven times. So the probability that this will turn into a pretty high-scoring game seems pretty high. The Islanders average 3.7 goals per game at home. With Pittsburgh, their power play has been a disappointment, but it’s just a matter of time before they get that turned around. The Islanders penalty killing unit hasn’t been that great this year. The Over is 11-1 when the Penguins are off a loss by three or more goals. Tied to that is they are also 5-0 Over after allowing 5+ goals in the last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Neither of these teams are particularly good with the Timberwolves being especially bad of late. It’s six straight losses for them and in each of the last two, they’ve given up 130+ points. While that’s a little misleading because their last game went to overtime, it was still 119 points allowed in regulation. There was no OT when they gave up 130 to the Wizards last month in a 21-point loss. That was the fifth straight meeting where Minnesota and Washington combined to go Over the total. The Wiz’s last game, a 112-110 win against Denver Thursday night, did stay Under. But that was only after they gave up 124 and 135 in the previous two games. Washington is allowing the second highest number of points per game in the league this season and when they’re at home, the number jumps to 122.2. Minnesota allows 119.4 PPG on the road. All five T Wolves' games this season with a total of at least 230 have gone Over. The Over is 10-3 in Wizards’ home games when the total is 230 or higher. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-27-21 | Alabama -6 v. Mississippi State | Top | 64-59 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ALABAMA Alabama is off a loss here. While no team ever WANTS to be in that situation, it always seems to motivate the Crimson Tide. They’ve yet to lose back to back times this season. While the last time they found themselves off a defeat, they managed to only win by three (at South Carolina), we think they’ll do better today at Miss State. The Tide beat this team by eight in Tuscaloosa earlier this year. Miss State has turned in two straight wins, but they are just 5-6 SU L11 games and have basically been playing the bottom of the SEC recently. Bama is at the top and today is their second chance to clinch the regular season title outright. They failed Wednesday at Arkansas, but that was a hot team they were facing there. Still, the Tide did lead by six in the second half before falling apart down the stretch and committing a ton of fouls. A -35 disadvantage at the charity stripe certainly helps explain a 13-point loss. Miss State is 1-6 ATS off its previous seven straight up wins. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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02-27-21 | LSU v. Arkansas -4.5 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Unquestionably, Arkansas is the hottest team in the SEC right now. The Razorbacks have won their last eight conference games and now sit in second place, 2.5 games back of the team they just beat, Alabama. It was 81-66 on Wednesday here in Fayetteville, a game where we cashed the Under. Though the Under did hit (thanks to Bama scoring only 28 points in the second half), it was the third time in the last four games where the Hogs finished with more than 80 points. Today is a legit revenge game for them as they lost down in Baton Rouge to LSU 92-76 last month. Though they too can score, LSU has been having major defensive issues since they beat Arkansas. In seven of the nine games since, they’ve allowed at least 76 points. In three of the last four, they allowed 80 or more. They sit at 153rd in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among the top 60 teams in the country in the KenPom ratings. The Tigers just lost 91-78 at Georgia on Tuesday and this certainly does not feel like the game where they’ll get the defensive issues fixed. Arkansas is 12-4 ATS as a favorite. Plato n ARKANSAS AAA |
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02-26-21 | Avalanche -170 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO We think it’s time for Colorado to get back into the win column. For the first time this season, they are coming off consecutive losses. The Avs were one of the Stanley Cup favorites coming into the year, so it’s quite surprising to see them all the way down in sixth in the division right now. Now to be clear, they are only four points out of first place. They lost 6-2 to Minnesota in their last game. The one positive about that is they are 3-0 this season if they allowed four or more goals their previous time out. Arizona was very fortunate to win each of its last two games as both times they trailed Anaheim 3-0. They won in a shootout Wednesday. The Coyotes still have a -3 goal difference for the year. Colorado is +8. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-26-21 | Suns v. Bulls OVER 227 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Suns have had a tremendous February and won 12 of their last 15 games overall. But they lost Wednesday 124-121 to Charlotte. While that put an end to a three-game win streak, another streak did continue and that’s an Over run which has now reached five in a row. Over the previous five games, Phoenix has averaged 127.4 points while shooting 53.3%. Tonight they invade Chicago to face a Bulls team whose games are also - generally - high scoring. The Bulls are off a 133-126 overtime win against Minnesota. While five additional minutes make the number of total points scored there a little misleading, this is a team whose games are averaging over 230 total points for the season. In four of the last six games, including each of the last three, Chicago has scored 120 or more. Tonight is an attempt by the Bulls to win four straight for the first time all season. They are 7-2 Over their last nine games as a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-26-21 | UL - Lafayette +2 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 66-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UL Lafayette Arkansas Little Rock shouldn’t be favored here as they’ve lost six in a row while also going 0-6 ATS. Louisiana has the most efficient offense in the Sun Belt Conference and has averaged 82 points while winning its last two games. Arkansas Little Rock’s combination of shooting the ball so poorly from behind the three-point line (31.8% for the year) and turning it over too much (23 times last game) is really starting to catch up with them. They are 3-11 ATS as a favorite this year (5-15 ATS overall), so again we just don’t get this line even if the game is being played in Little Rock. Louisiana is 5-2 ATS as an underdog. When the teams met twice earlier in the year in Lafayette, each won once. But Arkansas Little Rock’s win came in overtime and saw them have to come back from a significant deficit. Take the hotter team in this one. Play on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE AAA |
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02-25-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Bucks | Top | 125-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS You don’t see the Bucks lose five in a row very often, but that’s exactly what they did in an eight-day span (2/10-2/18) earlier this month. They have since “course-corrected” with three consecutive victories at home, all of them coming against what could objectively be called “bad teams” (Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Minnesota). Those are probably the three worst teams in the West, for the record. New Orleans is fifth from the bottom in that conference, but we’d say they’re also in a different class from the Bucks’ three previous opponents. A thrilling come from behind win on Sunday against the Celtics showed what the Pelicans are capable of doing. Then they prevailed again last night, beating Detroit 128-118. This team can definitely score as they’ve hit the 120 mark in five of their last eight games. That kind of offensive production makes it awfully difficult to cover against them when the spread is this large. The Pelicans had a season-high 74 points in the paint last night, led by Zion Williamson’s 32. NO is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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02-25-21 | USC v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado hosts USC tonight in a crucial clash as it tries to stay alive in the Pac 12 race. Saturday saw the Buffaloes prevail 61-57 against Oregon State. While it was an ATS loss, they’re probably just happy to be done with a four-game road trip that saw them go just 2-2 straight up. Now CU gets to play a home game for the first time in 17 days. The last one was a 78-49 win (over Oregon State) and the Buffaloes are 8-1 in Boulder this year, scoring 80.1 points/game while allowing an average of only 61.4. They host USC, who happens to be in first place in the conference. But Colorado already beat the Trojans once this year, 72-62 as a 3.5-point underdog, and that was obviously out in Southern California. Even more impressive is the fact the Buffaloes have won five in a row over the Trojans. They’re 4-1 ATS in those five wins as well. Despite being unranked Colorado is the favorite here. USC is #19 in the polls. Too many bettors get “caught up” in what the pollsters have to say. But we believe Colorado is the better team in this matchup. They showed it once and are certainly capable of showing it again at home. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-25-21 | Canadiens -122 v. Jets | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTREAL Montreal just made a coaching change and tonight will be Dominique Ducharme’s debut on the bench. It was a little surprising to see Claude Julien get fired as he’d guided the Candiens to an 8-2-2 start. But recently the team has floundered a bit, losing five of its last six games including two to last place Ottawa, who is arguably the worst team in the entire league right now. That losing skid has the Habs now in fourth place in the North Division, well behind first place Toronto, but also only one point back of third place Winnipeg. The Jets are who they’ll face tonight. The game is in Manitoba, but Montreal is still favored, which should tell you right away how the oddsmakers feel about these two clubs. We concur that the Canadiens are better. Both of those losses to Ottawa went past regulation and the Habs now have the most OT + shootout losses in the division. Winnipeg just won its third OT game, so they’ve been a little lucky. They last played on Sunday. When playing with three or more days rest this season, the Jets’ record is 0-3. Montreal leads the league in hits per minute and we expect that to continue under Ducharme. Coaching changes often lead to a short-term “boost.” Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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02-25-21 | Western Kentucky v. Houston -11.5 | Top | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON It was last Thursday when we decided to fade Houston at Wichita State and sure enough the 6th ranked (at the time) Cougars were upset there, losing 68-63. They had a nice bounce back from that game though, clobbering Cincinnati on Sunday by the score of 90-52. So they come into tonight’s game with Western Kentucky ranked #12 in the nation. It’s notable that this is another home game. All three times the Cougars have lost this season, it has been on the road. They are 12-0 at home. They average 81.0 points/game here and give up only 54.2. The more interesting thing about this matchup is that it’s a rare non-conference game late in the regular season. It’s the reality of the season we’re living in as WKU is trying to add games to its schedule to make up for all the cancellations. While they come in riding a six-game win streak, the Hilltoppers have not faced a team anywhere near as good as Houston in Conference USA. They’ve been off for 12 days and played just two games - both vs. Rice - in the month of February. We’d say they are “ill-prepared” to deal with this massive jump up in class. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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02-24-21 | Alabama v. Arkansas UNDER 156.5 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER With both Missouri and Tennessee faltering in recent weeks, might we be looking at the SEC’s two premier teams here? Alabama certainly is in that discussion as they lead the conference with a 13-1 SU record (18-5 overall). The Crimson Tide are deservedly ranked #6 in the country right now, although two of their last three wins have come by four points or less. Now they head to Arkansas, who has won its last seven SEC games and has revenge on the mind Wednesday night. When these teams played in Tuscaloosa last month, the Tide ripped the Razorbacks 90-59. It was over in the first half as Bama took a 42-19 lead into the break. Things are obviously going to be a lot more competitive tonight in Fayetteville. Arkansas is also well rested as they haven’t played in over a week. The expectation is that these teams are going to put up a lot of points, however the Razorbacks are giving up only 63.1 points/game at home. That’ll not only make this one more competitive than last night, but also lower scoring. The fact that Alabama is #2 in defensive efficiency can’t be discounted either. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-24-21 | Florida State -11 v. Miami-FL | Top | 88-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 10* on FLORIDA STATE So it’s Florida State that’s battling Virginia for that top spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Seminoles have played three fewer games than the Cavaliers and are ahead on percentage points with a 9-2 SU league record. They’re up to #11 in the rankings after winning not just three in a row, but also eight of the last nine games. Their ATS record in those nine games is a solid 6-2-1. Five of the wins during that time have been by at least 13 points and one of the most lopsided was 81-59 at Miami, who the Noles face again on Wednesday. The Hurricanes are having a terrible 2020-21 season as they’ve lost seven of eight. The only win was by two against Duke. This slide is a direct result of being one of the most short-handed teams in the country right now. Only five scholarship players finished the last game, which was a 27-point home loss to Georgia Tech. They trailed by 30 at halftime. FSU is one of the deepest teams in the country and got 33 points from its bench in Saturday’s win over Pitt. They should have zero difficulty blowing out Miami for a second time this year. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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02-24-21 | Wolves v. Bulls -4 | Top | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The Bulls have climbed into the top eight in the East by virtue of two consecutive victories. Now they’re still two games below .500, so this is hardly the halcyon days of the Jordan era. Still, a franchise that has not made the postseason four of the previous five years will “take it.” Chicago is also in a much better place than tonight’s opposition, Minnesota, who has the worst record in the entire NBA and lost five in a row. The Timberwolves played last night and got torched 139-112 at Milwaukee. So the situation here is hardly in their favor. It’s pretty rare that you can get away with laying such a short number like this against the T’wolves. So we’ll jump at the opportunity as the Bulls should have no problems scoring tonight. They’ve put up 120+ points in the last two games and just beat Houston by 20. They’re 11-5 ATS this season if they scored 115 or more in their last game. They’re also 11-4 ATS against the Western Conference and 12-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams. The bottom line is the Bulls are “looking” like a playoff team in 2021 and we think they’ll play like it tonight. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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02-24-21 | NC State v. Virginia -11.5 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia got upset by Duke over the weekend and has dropped to #15 in the country. But an ACC regular season crown is still in play for the Hoos and we think they’ll bounce back tonight in a major way. They face North Carolina State, who is really no match. Compounding problems for the Wolfpack is that this is their third straight away game. While they’ve won the first two, those wins came against Pitt and Wake Forest, who are two of the conference’s lesser teams. Virginia is 10-0 at home and those 10 wins are by 16.8 points per game. The Cavaliers aren’t just off one loss here, they’ve lost two straight as they also fell at Florida State last Monday. They were 15-3 SU before that and we see a “shut down” defensive effort coming tonight. Virginia is top seven in the country in points/game allowed and only gives up 57.2 here at home. They already won in Raleigh this season and held NC State to just 57 in that game. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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02-24-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It should be a good one tonight as the two best teams in the East Division face off. To be clear, we know Tampa Bay is currently in 4th place. But the Lightning are also the defending Stanley Cup Champs and have the division’s best goal differential. This should also turn out to be a high-scoring affair. With 64 goals scored on the season, Carolina is the highest scoring team in the entire Eastern Conference. Tampa Bay isn’t far behind with 58 goals scored in just 16 games. The teams just played twice in Raleigh and split with the Hurricanes winning 4-0 and the Lightning winning 4-2. We definitely see the winning team tonight scoring at least four goals. After all, the winning side in Tampa’s last seven games has scored at least four times. The same holds true for Carolina’s last seven games. The difference compared to the last two games will be that we see both teams scoring at least three times this evening. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 232 | Top | 112-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Thanks to a couple home games against lesser competition, the Bucks have seemingly turned things around. A five-game slide, which included back to back home losses to Toronto, was certainly a little shocking for a team accustomed to winning. That losing streak is now over though as the Bucks have beaten Oklahoma City 98-85 and Sacramento 128-115 over the course of the last four days. Now they host Minnesota, so it should be another easy win. We like the game to stay Under as the Timberwolves are off two straight abysmal efforts at the offensive end. They managed only 99 points against the Knicks on Sunday and 81 against Toronto on Friday. But Milwaukee can’t poke too much fun at Minnesota. Before the win against Sacramento, who is arguably the worst defensive team in the entire NBA, they too failed to score 100 points in back to back games. This total may not seem all that high for Milwaukee, but their home games are averaging only 227.8 points/game this year. Minnesota is 10-3 Under when it plays a team from the East. Tonight is the first game on the bench for new coach Chris Finch and there figures to be an adjustment period. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-23-21 | Predators -155 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NASHVILLE The Preds visit Detroit Tuesday night in search of a second straight win. While they hadn’t been performing all that well prior to defeating Columbus 4-2 on Saturday, this should be an easy two points. The Red Wings are not a good team and the fact they’re off a win actually makes this play even stronger. That’s because of the simple fact Detroit has yet to win two in a row this season. They’ve won just five games total and a -25 goal differential is the worst in the conference. Nashville will remember that they could only manage a split of two home games vs. the Red Wings earlier this month and come out firing. With this being the first of two straight in Detroit, the Predators know that they could really use all four points. Though only one point currently separates these teams in the standings, we know the Preds are much better and so do the oddsmakers. It’s worth laying the price on this one. Play on NASHVILLE AAA |
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02-23-21 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Prairie View A&M -16.5 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M Prairie View A&M is one of two teams with a 7-0 record in SWAC play, Jackson State being the other. The Panthers have a shot to reclaim first place all for themselves tonight when they host conference lightweight Arkansas Pine Bluff. This should be an easy win for the Panthers, who already defeated Arkansas Pine Bluff by 17 on the road earlier in the season. Arkansas Pine Bluff has now lost nine in a row and is coming off two straight games that they could have won (lost by a total of three points). The Golden Lions may very well be spent and it’s going to take a lot to compete Tuesday night. Our guess is that they simply don’t have enough “left in the tank,” even though they’ve been off for 10 days. They lost in OT to Southern and the game before that they blew a sizable second half lead at Alabama A&M. Prairie View A&M is on fire right now as not only are they 7-0 straight up vs. conference opponents, they are also 7-0 against the spread! The seven wins have been by an average of 17.7 points/game. Arkansas Pine Bluff is getting outscored by 24.5 points/game on the road where it is 1-14. Play on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M AAA |
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02-22-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 227 | Top | 100-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Portland’s loss to Washington Saturday night aside, these are two hot teams in the Western Conference. Before that loss, the Blazers hadn’t just won six straight games, they’d also covered six straight games. The Suns are even hotter with an 8-1 straight up and against the spread run in their last nine games. The only loss came by four points to Brooklyn and that’s a game where they had a 24-point lead at one juncture. Five of the last six games have seen Phoenix score at least 120 points. They should score at least that many tonight. Portland is a bad team defensively. They allow the third most points per possession in the league. Three of the Blazers last four opponents have gone for at least 118, the exception being OKC, who isn’t a high-scoring team. The good news for Portland is that they average 117.7 points/game on the road. They had a 43-point quarter against the Wizards Sunday. Phoenix hit 24 three pointers in its last game. The Over is 7-0 the last seven times Portland has been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-22-21 | Alabama A&M -1 v. Alcorn State | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Alabama A&M We’re going DEEP into tonight’s College card to uncover a winner. This is the SWAC, a league where two teams have no conference losses. These are neither of those two teams. Alabama A&M is 6-3 this season (4-3 in conference), but coming off a 72-58 loss at Alabama State nine days ago. Nine days ago is also the last time Alcorn State played, although they won 70-56 against Miss Valley State and snapped a three-game losing streak. Miss Valley State is a terrible team, maybe the worst in the country. They account for half of Alcorn State’s four victories this year and another was against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, the second worst team in the SWAC. We relish this opportunity to go against the Braves here. Play on Alabama A&M AAA |
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02-22-21 | Kings v. Blues -157 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. LOUIS Even after a loss Saturday, the Blues still lead the West Division with 22 points. Tonight is the first of two straight home games with the Kings. Los Angeles is 4th in the division with 17 points as it has won its last four games, during which they’ve outscored opposing teams 17-6. But before that, the Kings had lost five in a row, so don’t be surprised when they start reverting back to their losing ways this evening. These teams split a couple of games here in St. Louis last month. Looks like we’re getting a pretty substantial discount on the Blues this time as they closed north of -200 on the moneyline in each of the first two encounters. The Kings are 16-39 as a road underdog their last 55 tries. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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02-21-21 | Jets v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It was 2-0 win for Winnipeg Friday night in the front end of this back to back. We anticipate this game to be fairly low-scoring as well. The Jets have scored two goals or less in four of their last six games. Meanwhile, Vancouver continues to struggle against Winnipeg, losing 15 of the last 17 head to head while averaging fewer than 1.5 goals per game. They now lost their last six home games versus the Jets. In four of the last seven games, the Canucks have scored 1 or 0 goals. They are 3-1 Under after doing so. The Jets are 5-2 Under when the total is 6.0 or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-21-21 | Nets +6 v. Clippers | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-21-21 | Valparaiso +1 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a *10* on VALPO Not a lot of scoring or winning from either of these two MVC sides recently. But Valparaiso did just turn in an impressive effort in defeat, losing by just two at first place Loyola Chicago. While they’ve got just two wins in the last eight games, two of the Crusaders' six losses have been by three points or fewer. They’re a game up on Southern Illinois, who has just three wins in its last 12 games and two of those were by a total of three points. So we’ll ride the better team Sunday as they should build off that impressive showing against Loyola. Additionally, Valpo performed quite well against the league’s other top team, Drake, beating them by 17 points back on Super Bowl Sunday after only losing by three the previous day. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, has suffered three double digit losses in the past 11 days. SIU has been missing its leading scorer for almost two months, which helps explain the downturn. They’ve averaged only 55 points the last four games. Play on VALPARAISO AAA |
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02-21-21 | Michigan -1 v. Ohio State | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN These rival schools did not get a chance to meet on the football field in the fall. But I think we all know how that would have gone. Now it’s time for the basketball programs to collide and while maybe it’s not as big of a deal nationally, the matchup itself is SO MUCH better. These are two of the top four teams in the country (per the polls) meeting Sunday in Columbus. Michigan has returned from its near three-week pause to win back to back games, 67-59 over Wisconsin and 71-64 over Rutgers. The Wolverines only have one loss all season and that was at Minnesota last month. Ohio State being near the top of the rankings is a bit more surprising. The Buckeyes have won at Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa, which is very impressive. They too lost at Minnesota, but also have three other defeats, two vs. Purdue and one at Northwestern. We like Michigan in this one. They are the only team besides Gonzaga and Baylor (both undefeated) to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State ranks only 62nd in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This is the first time these teams have seen one another since October when they met in the NBA Finals. The way things are going this year, this could be the last time they meet for a while. The Heat are really struggling, 12-17 and just barely hanging on to what would be one of the “play-in” spots in the Eastern Conference. Truthfully, the Lakers have been a bit underwhelming as they are not leading the Western Conference. But they are definitely one of the league’s best teams and are only two games back of the Jazz. Being that LeBron is off a loss here, figure the Lakers will be “locked in” tonight. Though they fell to Brooklyn Thursday, they held the Nets to just 109 points, an achievement in its own right. Now the Nets didn’t have Durant/Irving, but that hasn’t stopped them from putting up a lot of points before. That Los Angeles only scored 98 themselves in that game is a bit concerning though. Only the Knicks are allowing less points/game and the Lakers are 1st in defensive efficiency. Miami isn’t a good offensive team. The Under was 4-2 in the NBA Finals last year. The Lakers still don’t have Anthony Davis. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-20-21 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Murray State -16.5 | Top | 62-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MURRAY STATE Everyone is chasing Belmont in the Ohio Valley and neither of these teams will be catching the Bruins, who are 17-0 in conference play. SIU Edwardsville is 8-13 overall and 6-9 vs the OVC. They’ve lost three in a row, all in a blowout fashion. The three losses have been by a combined 71 points, all by 20 or more and the worst was at home, 86-57 vs. the team they visit today, Murray State. The Racers are 9-8 vs. the OVC and 12-10 overall. That’s a disappointing mark for a squad that’s been favored in the vast majority of its games. Thursday was an ugly 68-59 home loss at the hands of Eastern Illinois. Murray State was a 15-point favorite in that one and the loss snapped a four-game run where every win was by 12 or more points. At home, the Racers are averaging 83.6 points/game while giving up only 65.2. SIU Edwardsville just does not rise up as a big underdog. They’re 0-3 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more and 4-12 ATS their last 16. Play on MURRAY STATE AAA |
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02-20-21 | Kings v. Coyotes -146 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -146 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA The ‘Yotes are actually tied for third in the West with Colorado, which is something we would not have anticipated. Tonight they can move even closer to the top as they host a Kings team that has been even more surprising in that they have won three in a row. In case you haven’t been following the NHL, the Kings have been bad the last couple seasons. They won here 3-2 on Thursday, but we can’t see them doing it again. That game on Thursday went to a shootout and saw Arizona dig themselves into an early 0-2 hole. Arizona is capable of a lot more offensively than what they’ve shown the last few games. While they’ve been held to two or less goals in three of the last four games, they’ve also scored 3 or 4 in six of the last nine. In a five game losing streak that preceded this current three-game winning run, Los Angeles had allowed a combined 21 goals. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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02-20-21 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Kansas | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEX TECH We believe Texas Tech is the better team here and aren’t afraid of them having to go to Lawrence. While it’s a 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS run here for the Red Raiders, this isn’t your typical season when it comes to home court advantage. Kansas has won and covered its last four games, but the last three have seen them take on Iowa State twice and Kansas State. Those are easily the two worst teams the Big 12 has to offer. This is also a revenge game for Texas Tech as they were beaten 58-57 by KU in Lubbock back in December. It was a horrible shooting night for the Red Raiders, who finished at just 32.3%. They have had LOTS of time to prepare for this rematch as the last time they played was 11 days ago vs. West Virginia. That was another loss, so you can bet there will be no shortage of motivation here. Just not convinced that Kansas is all that good this year. Yes, they beat Texas Tech and have strung together four straight wins. But we expect the Red Raiders to shoot better than they did in the first meeting and they won’t be as sloppy as recent Jayhawks’ opponents either. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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02-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Not sure at all why this line has come DOWN. Alabama, who just extended the contract of coach Nate Oats through the 2026-27 season, is the best team in the SEC this season. Vanderbilt is almost certainly the worst. We realize Vandy has been a little more competitive of late, going 5-0-1 ATS its last six games, but Bama won by 33 last Saturday and has had an entire week off as Thursday’s game vs. Texas A&M was postponed due to weather. The Crimson Tide are 10-1 in Tuscaloosa this season, winning by about 16 points per game. Five players were in double figures as they routed Georgia 115-82 last Saturday. Four of them average at least 10 PPG for the season. But while the Tide can score, it’s their defense that is largely responsible for them being ranked #8 in the country. They are second nationally in defensive efficiency and allow just 28.5% shooting from 3-point range, which is 9th best. The Commodores are severely outmatched in this one - at both ends of the floor. Alabama is 25-12 ATS after a game where it scored 80 or more points. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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02-19-21 | California Baptist v. Grand Canyon -11 | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GRAND CANYON Grand Canyon, who is a PERFECT 6-0 in the WAC, should have no problem staying unbeaten in conference play tonight as they are set to host Cal Baptist for the first of two games this weekend. The Antelopes haven’t played a single game in February, but their 8-1 home record speaks for itself. In those nine games, they have scored 25 more points/game than they have allowed. They are really solid at both ends of the floor. Can’t say the same for Cal Baptist, who is allowing 85 points/game when they hit the road. They were torched for 97 in their last road game, which was at New Mexico State. Last weekend saw the Lancers split a couple home games with Sacramento State despite being favored in both. All six Grand Canyon home games that have had a line attached, they have covered. Cal Baptist has just one road victory and is not a threat to win here. Play on GRAND CANYON AAA |
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02-19-21 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State +1.5 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA STATE North Dakota State is coming off a loss, their second in the last three games. Both losses saw them come into the game favored. The Bison are still tied for the Summit League lead at 9-3 mind you, and haven’t played in nearly two weeks. It was a subpar effort defensively the last time we saw them, which is rare given they allow only 63.9 points/game at home. They’ll be tested here by a South Dakota State team that is averaging more than 80 points/game. This rivalry has been closely contested the last couple seasons with the last four meetings decided by a total of 10 points. We think it’s a real “steal” getting points with the home team. South Dakota State hasn’t been sharp defensively this year, at least on the road where they give up 77.3 points/game. As an underdog, North Dakota State is 4-1 ATS this year. They are also 2-0 ATS playing with seven or more days rest. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
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02-19-21 | Suns -3 v. Pelicans | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* on PHOENIX The Suns had a six-game win streak snapped Tuesday with a 128-124 loss to Brooklyn. We’re not at all concerned about that. They actually led the Nets, who were without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, by 24. It’s obviously a game they should have won. They can get back on track tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans have lost four of five while giving up an average of 126.8 points/game. Two nights ago, they were beaten here at home by Portland 126-124. They’ve also lost to the likes of Detroit and Chicago recently. Right now, the Pelicans’ record is 12-16 and they just don’t perform well off high-scoring games. They are 4-9 ATS after allowing 115 or more points and 3-9 ATS after scoring 115 or more themselves. The Suns are simply much better defensively as they rank 4th in league in scoring (108 PPG allowed). They’ve recently defeated Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston. We’ve got no hesitation with laying a small number with the better team. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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02-19-21 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Hawks have gone Over the total in six consecutive games, the most recent being a 122-114 win here in Boston Wednesday night. They look to make it two straight in Beantown tonight and we look for them to make it seven straight Overs. This team has put up a minimum of 112 points in its last six games while at the same time allowing no fewer than 114 in every game. They ripped the Celtics the other night, shooting 57.1% overall. Trae Young had 40 points on 14 of 20 shooting. Boston’s defense, particularly in transition, has not been good the last week or so. But we think their shooting (43.9% L10 games) is set to improve. Specifically look for Jayson Tatum to have a good game tonight. The team’s second leading scorer at 24.6 points/game, Tatum has made only 39.2% the L10 games. But he still scored 35 points on Wednesday. The Over is 12-4 in the Celtics previous 16 games off an ATS loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-19-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Chicago and Carolina are separated by just a point in the Central Division as both teams have generally been successful of late. Carolina did lose here at home to Florida on Wednesday, but had won three straight prior and is 8-2-1 its last 11. Chicago has won three straight and six of seven. Four of those wins have come in overtime. But it’s generally been a “different path” for the two teams’ respective success. Hurricanes games have been high scoring as eight of the last night have gone Over. Every Over has seen at least seven total goals scored. But the Blackhawks are on Under runs of 5-1 L6 and 3-0 L3 with all those Unders seeing no more than five total goals scored. So something will have to give tonight in Raleigh. Our view is that this is going to be a lower-scoring game. The ‘Canes allow just 2.2 goals/game at home while the ‘Hawks average just 2.1 per game on the road. Carolina is 14-8 Under when off three or more consecutive Overs. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami experienced a horrible loss last night as it blew a 19-point lead and lost to Golden State in overtime. It was a game where the Heat never actually trailed in regulation. Needless to say, that’s a game you “can’t lose.” But they did and are now sitting at 11-17 on the season, having lost three in a row. Sacramento is 12-15 and they’ve lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Someone’s going to reverse their recent fortune here and we believe it will be the Heat, even though the Kings are rested. The four straight losses have all been at home. They’ve also all been by eight points or greater. Miami beat Sacramento on January 30th even though the Kings made 17 three-pointers in that game. The Kings defense is just horrendous as they allow more points per game than anyone in the West. At home, they are giving up an average of 121.6 points/game. Miami shouldn’t have any difficulty scoring tonight and we look for them to erase the painful memory of last night’s defeat. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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02-18-21 | BYU -5.5 v. Pacific | Top | 80-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BYU BYU already holds a win over Pacific this season. They beat them 95-87 in Provo last month. The 11.5-point spread proved too high to cover though as it was a double overtime game. That’s one of several reasons why the spread is shorter the second time around. You’ve also got to factor in the change in home court “advantage” (though Pacific doesn’t exactly have a strong one and this is a unique time in sports where being at home matters less) and that BYU lost its last game. But that loss was to #1 Gonzaga, so again we’re not going to go about penalizing the Cougars. They are definitely the better team here and should win by at least the same margin they did last time vs. Pacific, only this time in regulation. Pacific has dropped five of its previous six games and allowed 80 or more points in all five losses. The one win came against a dreadful Portland team. BYU has had 10 days to prepare since the loss to Gonzaga as their last two games got cancelled. They are simply stronger than Pacific at both ends of the floor and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight road games. Play on BYU AAA |
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02-18-21 | Houston v. Wichita State +7.5 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WICHITA STATE #6 Houston rolls into Wichita Thursday night to face a team they’ve already beaten by seven earlier in the year. But that was at home and Wichita State led that game by six points at half. It took a furious second half rally (16-0 run) from the Cougars to win that game. While three back in the win column, the Shockers have the same number of conference losses (2) as Houston. So a win here could make the conference race very interesting down the stretch. WSU has won nine straight home games vs. AAC opponents and four in a row overall. All four wins were close and though they haven’t covered a spread in a game since January 13th (0-5 ATS L5), we don’t need to worry about winning by any kind of margin tonight. Both teams have dealt with multiple postponements recently and thus are coming off eight-day layoffs. With the Shockers’ strong home record, we think they are a little underrated here, likely due to the 0-5 ATS mark their last five games. They’ve been pretty good as an underdog, including 7-3-1 ATS L11 times at home. Play on WICHITA STATE AAA |
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02-17-21 | Pacers -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 134-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana’s woes continued on Monday as they lost in overtime to Chicago. It was their seventh loss in the last 10 games and the fifth time in those 10 games they lost as a favorite. They were down 11 in the fourth quarter Monday. But tonight it's a welcome reprieve for the Pacers as they face Minnesota, who just played last night. The Timberwolves lost 112-104 to the Lakers (no Anthony Davis) Tuesday. They too have dropped seven of their last 10 games. But while Indiana is still fifth in the Eastern Conference with the same streak, Minnesota is last in the Western Conference. A case can be made that they are the league’s weakest overall team, so we won’t hesitate to lay such a short number tonight as Indiana is on a 13-4-1 ATS run in the road favorite role. Another interesting trend here is that the T’wolves are 3-7 ATS when their five starters collectively played for more than 160 minutes the previous game. They combined for 161 last night. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-17-21 | Valparaiso v. Loyola-Chicago -20.5 | Top | 52-54 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Loyola Chicago Loyola Chicago remains ranked even after splitting two games vs. Drake over the weekend. They are also still in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference with a 13-2 record as they are two up on Drake in the win column. Walking away with a split against the second best team in the league is not all that bad when you think about it, especially since the loss was in overtime and both games were on the road. At home, the Ramblers are a perfect 10-0 this season. Tonight they host a Valparaiso team that simply cannot hang with them. Valpo just lost by 14 at Northern Iowa Sunday and this is their third straight game on the road (they did win at N Iowa Sat). The road has seen the Crusaders average just 62.3 points/game this year. They lost twice at Evansville, but most concerning of all is what happened the last time they faced Loyola. At home, they were destroyed 75-39. The game was never close as Loyola led 37-16 at halftime. When Valpo loses, it’s often by double digits. Earlier this month, they fell by 24 at home to Bradley. This one will get ugly in a hurry. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO AAA |
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02-17-21 | NC-Greensboro v. VMI +4.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VMI VMI is looking to play spoiler here and also win back to back games for the first time since a three-game win streak before Christmas. In conference play, it’s basically been “win one, lose one” for the Keydets by the KEY here is their perfect 8-0 ATS home record. They are 10-1 SU in games played here in Lexington City this season as opposed to 1-9 SU on the road. They have not gotten to play two straight at home since last month when they faced Wofford and The Citadel consecutively. It was then VMI did suffer its lone home defeat of the season. But it was by only two points to Wofford. The Keydets have four losses by three points or less this year, so their overall record could easily be a lot better. The team they are hosting tonight, UNC Greensboro, has won 9 of 10 and leads the SoCon with a 10-3 record. But tonight will be the second straight road game for the Spartans. The last time they were in this situation (last Monday), they lost at Furman. Saturday was a narrow escape for them as they won by only three at Mercer. Since VMI is so tough to beat at home, we will definitely take the points in this one. Play on VMI AAA |
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02-17-21 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -152 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -152 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAROLINA These teams are tied for second place in the Central Division, but Carolina has more wins and far superior goal differential. The Hurricanes are also at home tonight where they have gone a perfect 4-0 this season. Add it all up and this should be an easy two points for them. The Canes have scored 50 goals in 13 games so far. The only team with a higher goals for average is Tampa Bay. They’ve only given up 36 and the last three games have seen them defeat Dallas twice and Columbus. In those three games alone, the Canes have scored 16 times. Florida is coming off a three-game set with Tampa Bay where they managed to win twice, including 6-4 on Monday. But the Panthers are still only 4-13 SU their L17 against teams that have winning records, plus they are 1-5 their last six vs. Carolina. The home team is on a 54-26-2 run in this rivalry. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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02-16-21 | Wild v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This will be Minnesota’s first game in two weeks. Not traveling with the rest of the team to LA will be forwards Nick Bonino, Victor Rask and Nico Sturm, defensemen Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Carson Soucy, and goalie Cam Talbot. That’s obviously a pretty sizable group. While it may seem difficult to know what to expect from the Wild here, what we do know is they could only score one goal in three of their previous five games. These teams were supposed to meet Saturday, but the Wild still weren’t cleared. So that’s why it’s just the one game that they play and the reason the Kings have been off for four days. Each of the Kings last four games have seen seven or more total goals scored. They had six themselves the last time they played, which was against the Sharks. But after a “mini-break,” we don’t see them coming out as sharp. The only other time the Kings played with three or more days rest this season, the Under was a winner. Lengthy absences from the ice = low scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-16-21 | Raptors +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 124-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Two years ago, these teams met in the Eastern Conference Finals. In that series, the Raptors pulled off what was considered an “upset” and went on to win their 1st NBA Championship. Milwaukee has been the top seed in the East each of the last two years, yet hasn’t even advanced to a NBA Finals. They are currently in second place and just ended a six-game road trip with three consecutive losses. Losing to Utah and by one to Phoenix is excusable, however falling as an 11-point favorite to Oklahoma City (which is what Milwaukee did on Sunday) is not. They return home Tuesday, but the first home game following a long road trip always seems to be a tough spot, especially when returning from the West Coast. Toronto is off its own embarrassing loss (to Minnesota), so they’ve got something to play for. The Raptors had won five of six before dropping two straight. They also have revenge tonight for a seven-point loss last month. The initial line movement for this game definitely looks to be of the sharper variety. Take the points in this one. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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02-16-21 | Florida v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARKANSAS Arkansas, now ranked (#24), will look for its fourth straight win Tuesday night as they host Florida. The Razorbacks had an impressive road win Saturday at #10 Missouri, a game that went to overtime. They also won in Kentucky last week, by a single point. Things were much easier the last time the Razorbacks played at home. They downed Mississippi State 61-45. That’s the kind of score we should expect here as the Hogs are 12-1 in Fayetteville this season. They are averaging 84.4 points at home while giving up only 63.1. Florida is playing its first game in nearly two weeks as they’ve had three postponements in February. Their season has been severely disrupted by COVID as there was another 2+ gap between games in December. There’s also the matter of Keyontae Johnson collapsing on the court due to a heart issue back in December. So the Gators have never truly been able to get into any kind of real “rhythm” this season. Arkansas is playing its best ball of the season right now and has won six straight SEC games. With Florida allowing 77 points/game on the road, the Razorbacks get our vote of confidence tonight. Florida lost at home to South Carolina the last time it played. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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02-15-21 | 76ers v. Jazz OVER 226 | Top | 123-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The best teams from each conference meet Monday in Salt Lake City. The Jazz have made a strong case to be considered the league’s best team this year as they have won 18 of their last 19 games to get to 22-5 on the year. The Sixers are 18-9 and have actually lost two in a row, both on the road to Western Conference teams (Portland, Phoenix). It’s going to be a tall task to finish this four-game road trip with a .500 record. But we do expect there to be lots of points from both sides tonight. Four players scored 25 or more points for the Jazz in Friday night’s very impressive win against Milwaukee. In this 7-0 start to February, there has been only one game where Utah failed to score at least 112. The Sixers are 9-3 Over the L12 games. The Over is 4-0 in the Jazz’s last four Monday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-15-21 | Hawks -2 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Hawks desperately need a win tonight. They have lost three straight and six of seven. This losing streak has dropped them into ninth place in the East, even though they can still claim to have scored more points than they’ve allowed this season. The Knicks actually have a better record than the Hawks (two up in the win column) as they are coming off wins over Washington and Houston. They won those games by a combined 40 points! But be wary of a team that still only averages 103.4 points/game. The 121 the Knicks scored against the Rockets were their most since the third game of the season. Center Mitchell Robinson broke his hand Friday, which is a significant injury for this team. Atlanta really collapsed defensively against Indiana Saturday night, but we don’t see that happening again tonight. Plus Trae Young is going to have a better shooting night here than he did vs. the Pacers (he didn’t even attempt a single three-pointer in that game). Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State UNDER 129 | Top | 60-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is 10* on UNDER Florida State returned from a two-week break (COVID) to defeat Wake Forest 92-85 in overtime Saturday. That final margin of victory wasn’t nearly enough to cover the 13-point spread, but the Seminoles will take the win considering they trailed by two with five seconds left in regulation. They’d let a double digit lead slip away and nearly lost at home for the first time in over two years. Now it’s a Top 25 showdown with #9 Virginia, a team that has lost only one time in 2021. The last eight FSU games have all gone Over, but considering Virginia just held North Carolina to 48 points on Saturday, this one has a good chance of going “the other way.” Plus, the Under has hit 11 straight times when Virginia has visited Tallahassee! As always, Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are allowing just 58.8 points/game. They are 5-1 Under in road games. The 48-hour turnaround for both teams will probably result in below average shooting and FSU could again be without Balsa Koprivica. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-14-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the LAKERS The Lakers fell behind 22-2 at the start Friday night. But over the course of the final three quarters, they battled back and ended up winning fairly comfortably against Memphis, 115-105. They even covered the 8.5-point spread! They can ill-afford a similar start tonight in Denver but it’s fair to say we won’t see anything like the start vs. Memphis. The Lakers have won seven in a row, the most convincing of which was a 114-93 game vs. the Nuggets out in LA. Incredibly that was a game the Lakers trailed by 12 at halftime. It may not end up being as big of a blowout tonight, but it doesn’t have to be and again, we stress the fact the Lakers WILL get off to a better start. Denver has won two straight after losing four of five, but those wins were vs. Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Against the Thunder, the Nuggets had their own poor start as they fell behind by 19. The Lakers can’t let the Jazz get too far ahead in the fight for first in the Western Conference. Play on LA LAKERS AAA |
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02-14-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We know that St. Louis is in first place, but these are the two best teams in the NHL’s West Division. Colorado and Vegas are set to play four straight games against one another, the first two taking place here in Sin City where the Golden Knights are always tough to beat. Vegas was shutout in its last home game, 1-0 by Anaheim, but won 3-1 last night in San Jose. Before that loss to the Ducks, they’d won their three previous home games and scored a total of 18 goals (4.5 per) in the previous four. This is a team that’s scored at least four goals in seven of their 12 games this season. Colorado has averaged 4.0 goals per game over their last five, winning four of those. Tonight is their first game in 12 days though and we wonder if they’ll be a bit “leaky” in the defensive end. Both teams are top 10 in scoring. Nathan MacKinnon will be back for the Avs, who did get three practices under their belt while being under COVID protocols. Vegas scored three times on the power play yesterday. The Over is 7-1 the last eight times Vegas has been a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-14-21 | Michigan +1.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN When Michigan played Wisconsin on January 12th, it was a 77-54 blowout in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines actually lost their next game, 75-57 at Minnesota, which is their ONLY loss this season. They then responded with a pair of victories, 87-63 against Maryland and 70-53 at Purdue. Then COVID hit. That win over Purdue was all the way back on January 22nd, so it’s been more than three weeks since the Wolverines took the floor. Will they be rusty? Maybe. But we don’t think enough has changed in three weeks for Wisconsin to completely reverse what happened the first time. The Badgers are just 3-3 their last six games and the wins have been against middle of the pack or bottom teams in the Big 10. They lost by double digits to both Ohio State and Illinois, two of the conference’s top tier teams. Michigan, ranked #3 in the entire country, is obviously in that top tier. They led by as many as 40 in the first game with Wisconsin. They’re at full strength. Don’t see them losing. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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02-13-21 | Hurricanes v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It was 5-3 Carolina when these clubs met Thursday. That was Dallas’ fourth straight loss as a 4-0 start is now a distant memory. We expect Saturday’s rematch to see less goals scored. You’ve got to think Stars goalie Khudobin will start to play better. He’s 0-3-1 his last four starts, all three losses coming vs. Carolina, and his save percentage is just .866. Hurricanes goalie James Reimer is 6-1 vs. Dallas and made 34 saves Thursday. The Under is 37-15-2 in Dallas games if they allowed five or more goals their previous time out. We’re due to see a downtick in scoring tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-13-21 | Rockets -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 99-121 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston has lost four straight games and failed to cover the spread in all of them. The two that were on the road did not go well at all as they were beaten by a combined 54 points at Charlotte and New Orleans. Thursday they lost at home to Miami. But we look for the Rockets to blast off tonight in New York as the Knicks are in the second game of a back to back and off a win. They beat the Wizards 109-91 Friday night, a win which came on the road. Having to now head home without any rest in between games is a tough spot for a team we still don’t think is very good, even though it is 12-15, a more competitive record than expected. The Rockets had a 13-point lead Thursday and could be shorthanded here, but we still like them as they’d won seven of eight before this four-game slide. The Knicks have failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve played a back to back. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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02-13-21 | South Alabama v. Troy State +2 | Top | 58-51 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TROY In-state rivals meet for the second time this year as Troy hosts South Alabama. The Jaguars won the first time, 73-70, however it was the Trojans leaving with the cash as six-point underdogs. They are underdogs again here, but only slightly at home. That first meeting was Thursday, by the way. Troy may be at the bottom of the Sun Belt’s East Division, but they are really good at home with a 7-1 record and they are allowing 59.9 points/game. They’re just a much better team here plus they are 8-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss. When off a conference loss, the Trojans are 5-1 ATS this season. South Alabama has a losing road record and is just 2-5 ATS when playing with only one day of rest between games. The Jaguars have won five in a row, but the last four have all been decided by six points or less. It would seem they are due for a loss and Troy is going to be desperate to end a five-game losing streak in this rivalry. Play on TROY AAA |
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02-13-21 | Iowa v. Michigan State OVER 152 | Top | 88-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Iowa doesn’t have a problem scoring on anybody as they are third in the country with an 87.4 points/game scoring average. They’ve actually failed to hit that average in six straight games, which partly explains why they’re just 2-4 in that stretch. But the Hawkeyes did down Rutgers 79-66 earlier this week and now look to take care of a Michigan State team that is simply not among the elite in the Big 10 anymore, let alone among the elite in the country. The Spartans are a money-burning 4-13 ATS, although they have won two straight games for only the second time in two months. Those wins were against Penn State and Nebraska though, probably the conference’s two worst teams (Nebraska is definitely the worst). They won those games in part because the opponents were terrible shooting from three-point range, but that will almost assuredly not be the case today as Iowa is making 39 percent of its three-point shots. But the Hawkeyes have an issue in that they allow more than 80 points/game on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-13-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Mercer +1.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MERCER Mercer hosts the top team in the Southern Conference, UNC Greensboro, on Saturday. The Bears are looking to win their third in a row after two overtime victories against Samford earlier in the week. The first of those was a 2OT game, however Mercer hardly ever trailed in that game and never faced a deficit larger than three points. They did need to come from behind to win on the road Wednesday. But at home the Bears’ record is 7-2 and this is a team that can score (80.9 points/game at home), something you can’t always say about UNC Greensboro. The Spartans were able to earn a split with Furman earlier in the week, but scored only 49 points in the loss, which was on the road. That’s their only loss in the last nine games, but this team is not dominant and we don’t think they’re the best team in the SoCon even though they are in first place. These teams’ overall records aren’t all that different. The first time they played was closer than it looked as Mercer failed to make a basket in the final three minutes. Play on MERCER AAA |
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02-13-21 | TCU v. Texas -12 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas may be on a 5-game ATS slide, but we still believe the Longhorns are one of the better teams in the entire country. After losing three straight times on the court, they finally got back into the win column Tuesday with an 80-77 win at Kansas State. That one was closer than it should have been as Texas made a season-high 13 three pointers. Kansas State hadn’t stayed within single digits of anybody in the Big 12 since January 2nd. Both of the ‘Horns’ wins since Jan 9 have come against Kansas State but two of the losses have been by a total of three points. That Shaka Smart’s team has lost three of four in Austin should have them motivated today. TCU has won two in a row, both by three points, but is one of the conference’s poorer teams. This is their first Big 12 win streak of any kind since starting 3-0 last year and they’d lost five in a row prior to the two wins. Leading scorer Mike Mills has been out with a non-COVID related illness. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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02-13-21 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -13 | Top | 85-92 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE So Florida State has been off for a couple weeks. The 17th ranked ‘Noles last played on 1/30 when they were upset 76-65 in Atlanta by Georgia Tech. So they should be ready to go here in Tallahassee vs. Wake Forest, who comes in with just a single road win on the year and a 3-8 ACC record. Things have gotten better recently for the Demon Deacons as those three ACC wins have come over the course of the last five games, plus they are 6-1 ATS L7. But they are outclassed here and playing their third consecutive road game. Earlier this week is when they picked up that lone road win, beating Boston College 69-65 as a 2.5-point favorite. Boston College is the last place team in the ACC this year. What are the chances Wake can win two in a row? Obviously, very small. Now FSU has a spread to worry about here, but they are 9-1 at home and winning by an average of 13.6 points/game already. They’ve won the last three times they’ve played Wake Forest, who could be shorthanded here. The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in ACC play. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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02-12-21 | Cavs v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 110-129 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND While Portland upset Philadelphia last night, we do not see them suffering any kind of letdown in the second night of a back to back against Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been really lousy of late, losing seven of the last eight. They were just beaten by THIRTY EIGHT points in Denver on Wednesday. It was the fifth loss by 18 or more points since January 29th. You’re looking at a team that has the worst point differential among Eastern Conference teams, so it’s just a matter of time before the Cavs are at/near last place in the standings. The only team in the league with a worse power rating is Minnesota. Portland is 5th in the Western Conference and has to be feeling good about itself following the result last night. They have won four of the last five games and two straight at home. Cleveland let Denver make 60% of its field goal attempts, so the Blazers should have a big game offensively. The Cavs are also getting outscored by 12.6 points/game on the road, so we have zero hesitation about laying such a short number. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-12-21 | Blues v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Welcome to the 2020-21 NHL season where we’ve got an incredible bit of scheduling brewing here in the desert. St. Louis and Arizona just met four times in the Gateway City with the Coyotes winning the last three. Now they’re set to play three more times here in Phoenix. That is seven consecutive games against the same opponent and the Stanley Cup Playoffs are still a couple months away! Three of the four games in St. Louis ended up being 4-3 finals with the last one going to a shootout. But with so much familiarity between the two clubs, we’ve got to expect less goals after a three-day break. The Blues are just 1 for their last 12 on the power play. The Under is 5-2 the past seven times they’ve been a road favorite. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2 | Top | 130-143 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS We say it’s “time” for the Mavericks to actually cover a game! They are just 1-10 ATS L11, but have won the last three straight up, all three wins coming by five points or less. Those three wins were against Golden State, Minnesota and Atlanta. Against Atlanta Wednesday night, they had to rally back from a 13-point deficit. It’s a real small number that the Mavs are being asked to lay tonight as the Pelicans pay a visit to Dallas. The Pelicans just dropped a game in Chicago, 129-116, which snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak. Neither of these teams are among the top eight in the Western Conference and both are two games below .500. So it would “seem” to be a fairly even matchup. However, Dallas has grossly underachieved to this point and in our estimation is due to improve its record. They are just 2-10 ATS at home. How long can they continue to sport such a poor covering rate? New Orleans is pretty atrocious at defending the 3-point line, giving up an average of 16 threes per game. They just let Chicago make 25! This has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Mavericks, who won all four matchups last season. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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02-12-21 | Oakland v. Robert Morris +1.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ROBERT MORRIS Robert Morris’ first season in the Horizon League is not going all that well as the Colonials are just 2-9 in conference play. Last weekend was just brutal as they lost two overtime games to Youngstown State. Had they won one (or both), perhaps more people would be looking at them differently coming into this next game. But we’re cool with it. They should be able to defeat Oakland at home Friday. The Golden Grizzlies are coming off their own painful set of results last weekend as they lost twice to first place Cleveland State. Something to note is that three of Oakland’s eight wins this season have been over Detroit. They are just 5-15 otherwise. Two of the other five were against IPFW, who isn’t any good either. Now certainly we can’t call Robert Morris “good,” but with six of their nine Horizon League losses coming by six points or less, it’s fair to say they’ve been unlucky. They deserve a better record and should get the win here. Play on ROBERT MORRIS AAA |
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02-12-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Marshall OVER 143 | Top | 79-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER A couple games versus a pretty bad Charlotte team is what Middle Tennessee needed last weekend. The Blue Raiders had lost six in a row before that and five of the losses were by more than 10 points. But they defeated the 49ers 66-65 and 73-60, providing a brief glimmer of positivity in what has been a pretty awful season. At 10-5 on the year, Marshall is doing a lot better than MTSU, though they had some unscheduled breaks in January. They did play last weekend though and could only muster a split with Old Dominion despite being favored to win both games. The loss was by one point and the win was by 20. They should win big tonight. The game should also end up being high scoring. The Thundering Herd have scored more than 80 points in three consecutive games. They are basically averaging 80 per game for the entire season. Middle Tennessee does not score very much, but if they can reach 60 (doable!), then the Over is all but assured in this one. The Over is 4-0 the last four times MTSU has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Philadelphia continues to lead the Eastern Conference with an 18-7 record. Their lead has now grown to two games with Milwaukee losing at Phoenix last night. The Sixers have won six of their last seven games and tonight finds them getting an opportunity to avenge that one loss as they travel to Portland. The Blazers beat them 121-105 last Thursday and that was in Philly. The Blazers were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the upset despite not even having Damian Lillard in the lineup! They also didn’t have CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. What they did have is six players score 14 or more points and a third quarter where they outscored the 76ers 40-19. Lillard will be in the lineup tonight and the game is in Portland where the Blazers just won 106-97 over Orlando Tuesday night. Philly had to rally late to win at Sacramento that same night and you’re going to want to take the points here. This spread is pretty similar to that Sixers-Kings game, which seems ridiculous on the surface as Portland is better than Sacramento. The Blazers are 4-1 straight up and against the spread the last five meetings. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-11-21 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Kings have dropped five straight. In those five losses, they have surrendered a total of 21 goals. They’ve allowed at least three in all five games and four in four of them. The last one was a 4-3 loss to San Jose, who they face again tonight. It should also be noted here that four of the Sharks’ last six games have seen seven or more total goals scored. Five of the last seven Kings’ games have seen at least seven total goals scored. San Jose is allowing 3.6 goals per game this year and LA is allowing 3.5. Those are among the highest averages in the league. You get where we’re going with this one? The Over is 15-5-1 in the Sharks last 21 games as a road favorite. Play on OVER. AAA |
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02-11-21 | Pacers -3 v. Pistons | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana, despite losing four in a row, is still in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Detroit is at the bottom with a 6-18 record for the season. The Pistons did win Tuesday, over the team that just beat the Pacers last night (Brooklyn). But we’re looking at this as a classic buy low spot on the favorite. While it’s been a rough month so far, the Pacers have played a number of good teams. It’s been awhile since they faced anyone in the same class as Detroit, a team they have actually not faced since the end of 2019! This should be a welcome matchup. Indiana was -24 in free throw attempts compared to Brooklyn last night, a big reason they lost. A big reason why the Pistons beat the Nets is that they were an uncharacteristically hot 56 percent from the floor. This is a team that shoots just 43.3% for the season. Indiana’s starters had only 51 points last night and the team shot 39.1% overall. Again, it’s all about the “buy low” as the Pacers are a better team than the Pistons and should be laying a larger number. Detroit is 0-5 after a win this year. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-11-21 | Lightning -162 v. Panthers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -162 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB The Lightning look to keep rolling in this matchup. It’s six straight wins for them, four against Nashville and two against Detroit. They’ve scored 27 goals in the six games and allowed just nine. While Tampa Bay may not have the most points in the league (Toronto does), that’s because they’ve only played 11 games. And yet they do have the best goal differential at +23. Tonight they face second place Florida, but the gap is wide between the NHL’s two Floridian franchises. The Panthers have lost seven of the eight head to head matchups in the last two seasons. They could only manage a split with the Red Wings. The Panthers are 0-7 their last seven Thursday games and 0-4 their last four against teams with a win percentage of .600 or higher. Six of Florida’s seven wins this year have been by one goal. So their record could be worse. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 95-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The struggling Cavaliers head to Denver Wednesday night in search of what would be their second win this month. It’s unlikely to come here as the Nuggets are heavily favored and on a three-game losing skid of their own. Two of those three losses were to the Lakers and Bucks. Then again, Cleveland has faced Milwaukee twice as well as the Clippers and Suns in their last four games. What we do see taking place tonight is a relatively low-scoring affair. The Cavs are dead last in the NBA in points per possession. The Nuggets join them in the bottom five in terms of pace of play. The Cavs have seen 8 of their 11 road games stay Under the total as they’ve shot only 43.5% in them. Denver goes Over a lot more than it goes Under, but this is a high total for Cleveland, whose last three games with a total of 220 or higher have all stayed Under. The Cavs have averaged just 104 points during their four game losing streak, but we like the move to “go big” (now starting two centers) from a defensive perspective. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss +0.5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS Missouri may be ranked #10 in the country coming into this game, but they are slight underdogs to Ole Miss. Now we were very happy to see the Tigers deliver a 68-65 upset of Alabama over the weekend. They were a big play for us in that game. But it was very concerning how they almost blew all of a 22-point lead and nearly lost, despite the opposition shooting very poorly. Speaking of poor shooting, Missouri hit only 3 of its 20 three-point shots in that game. They’ll take the win, their third in a row, but all of them have been by five points or less and were at home. This is the Tigers’ first time hitting the road since a loss to Auburn on January 26th. They venture into a gym where visitors are averaging only 59.7 points/game. So it’s likely to be another rough shooting night. Over the course of its last six games, Ole Miss has beaten all three teams that have beaten Missouri this season. They held Tennessee to only 50 points in a win here in Oxford last week. Then they went to Auburn and won a high-scoring game in overtime Saturday. Play on MISSISSIPPI AAA |
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02-10-21 | Bruins -156 v. Rangers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON The Bruins are tied for 1st in the East Division with 18 points and will be looking for a fourth consecutive victory Wednesday night. They’ve won 8 of 9 overall and have lost in regulation only one time so far, 1-0 to the Islanders back on January 18th. They just swept a set of games from the team they are tied with (Philadelphia) and both wins came on the road. Looking at goal differential, there is no doubt that this is the best team in the East. They’ll try to reaffirm that status tonight here in New York, facing a Rangers team that is at the bottom of the division with only 10 points. The Blueshirts were blanked 2-0 by the Islanders in their last game and will find it difficult to score tonight against a team that is allowing only 23.5 shots per game. The Rangers are 0-4 their last four games as an underdog and have also lost four straight times to the Bruins. Pretty easy, right? Play on BOSTON AAA |
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02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 140 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER These teams played two weeks ago with West Virginia winning 88-87 as a 2.5-point favorite. While it was a back and forth game, the O/U was never in doubt as the total for the game was 144.5 and the teams went way Over that. The total is even LOWER for tonight’s second meeting, which may be a surprise to some, but this is a matchup we had circled to play the Under all along. The number of total points scored in Morgantown should be viewed as an aberration. The teams went 21 of 41 on three-point attempts, which is way more production than the 13 of 39 average that they combine for on a per game basis this season. The likely significant decrease in 3-point marksmanship tonight should alone account for this game staying Under. But if you need more convincing, note that Texas Tech allows only 56.5 PPG at home. Five of their last seven games have been on the road, which is why we’ve been seeing some higher scoring games from them recently. But in the last home game, they held Oklahoma to only 52 points and that game had just 109 total points scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 231.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Second of two straight games between the Warriors and Spurs. San Antonio won last night 105-100, which was a far cry from what we saw the very first time these teams played (back on January 20th). Then it was Golden State 121-99. Of course, last night’s game was in San Antonio. But what we were most taken aback by is the fact the Warriors scored just 100 points. They were coming off two straight games vs. Dallas where they scored 147 and 132. Things started out well enough, with a 36-point first quarter. But Golden State scored just 41 in the entire second half and Steph Curry was curiously absent for much of the 4th quarter when the Spurs made their run. Steve Kerr has said he’s not going to “stretch” Curry’s minutes to “chase wins,” which seems like an odd thing to say, but our assumption is that Curry will play his usual 34-35 minutes tonight. He had 32 points last night. Look for his teammates to shoot better than the 28 of 69 (40.5%) we saw from them Monday. Problem is Golden State also gives up 121.5 points/game on the road, so they’re number of points allowed is also expected to increase tonight. The Spurs are also 21-9-1 Over when playing the second night of a back to back. They shot only 40% last night. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-09-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars -159 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -159 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS The Blackhawks have been a bit of a “thorn in our side” recently as they’ve recorded upset wins over Carolina and Dallas in recent days. Both times we were on the other side. But we get a second chance here with the Stars, who had not lost on home ice before facing Chicago on Sunday. They’d gone 4-0, sweeping Nashville and Detroit, and against each opponent they had a 7-goal game. Chicago had not won on the road before Sunday, losing all six times by an average of 2.2 goals/game. The game on Sunday went to overtime with the Blackhawks’ lone regulation goal coming on a power play. Just can’t see Dallas losing twice at home to such a lowly opponent. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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02-08-21 | Gonzaga -10.5 v. BYU | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA BYU has scored 200 combined points in their last two games. They are getting double digits at home tonight. The question as to whom the Cougars are facing tonight can only have one answer: Gonzaga. The top ranked Zags are 18-0 and have beaten BYU already by 17 points. Actually that score is misleading. They led by as many as 32 in the second half. Gonzaga not only has the nation’s longest active win streak (22 games), but the last 15 have all been decided by double digits. Only one team (West Virginia) this season has been able to stay within 12 of them. After a less than stellar effort in the last game (still won by 18 over Pacific), look for the Zags to come out and make a statement Monday night. Saturday’s game vs. Santa Clara was postponed so that’s extra time they’ve had to stew over the fact they actually trailed Pacific at the half Thursday. BYU’s last five games have all been against Pacific, Pepperdine or Portland, all of whom are horrible and offer little in the way of preparation for what they’ll face here. With only one win by less than 12 points this year (and it was the third game), we will gladly lay the points with the #1 team in the country tonight. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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02-08-21 | Thunder v. Lakers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The last time the Thunder and Lakers played, the game went pretty much how you’d imagine. LA dominated en route to a 128-99 win. That was only a little more than three weeks ago, so you’d anticipate tonight should go pretty smoothly for the Lakers, who are in fact favored by double digits. But we think the game has a better chance of being “low scoring” rather than another Lakers’ double digit victory. The most recent Lakers game has a very misleading final score. It was 135-129 because of double overtime. They allowed only 106 points in regulation, making it nine straight games they’ve allowed 108 or less (excluding OT). Four of those games, they’ve allowed fewer than 100. They are the best defensive team in the league right now. The Under is 17-7 in all Lakers games this season and 6-0 off their last six ATS losses. Oklahoma City just set a franchise record with 83 first half points against Minnesota on Saturday, but was then held to only 37 in the second half. That first half performance is indicative of nothing as the Thunder average only 107.5 points/game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-08-21 | Wizards +3 v. Bulls | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON The Wizards HAVE to be better than this, right? Their 5-15 record is second worst in the Eastern Conference and yesterday’s 119-97 loss at Charlotte was just plain embarrassing. Tonight they try and dust themselves off in Chicago against a Bulls team they’ve already lost to twice this season, both times at home. Those games took place right before the new year and were relatively close. Washington was also a six and seven point favorite in them. This will actually be the Bulls sixth straight game being favored, which is pretty rare. But all those lines have been three points or less and they’re only 2-3. The Wizards have the NBA’s leading scorer in Bradley Beal (33.3 PPG) and are a lock to improve upon Sunday’s atrocious 9 of 40 shooting from three-point range. The Bulls are only 3-7 at home and 2-5 their last seven games overall. We think the road team is better, so it makes sense to grab them as underdogs. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 287 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City is the favorite to win Super Bowl 55, but perhaps you’ve heard that the sportsbooks have more “liability” on Tampa Bay winning here. Once they acquired Tom Brady, the Buccaneers were quite the popular bet to win it all. Now here they are facing last year’s SB champs. The favored team has won 35 of the previous 54 Super Bowls and are 3-1 ATS the last four (and 2-0 ATS L2). The AFC team has won and covered five of the last six. Now none of this guarantees the Chiefs will repeat. Nor does the fact Patrick Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS in his career when he’s NOT a double digit favorite. But, to us, all signs point to the Chiefs winning and covering this game. They already beat the Bucs once this season, 27-24, back on November 29th. They didn’t cover, but this spread is now lower. Also that regular season score is a little misleading. Kansas City led 17-0 after one quarter and 27-10 going into the fourth. They put up 543 yards on this Bucs defense, which now has two injured safeties coming out of the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs might only be 8-10 ATS this season, but they are 5-0 ATS when the spread is three points or less. Andy Reid is 18-9 ATS in his head coaching career when he has at least 13 days between games. Tampa Bay’s last two wins have seen them heavily rely on turnovers. The Chiefs offense averaged almost seven yards per play in the AFC Championship Game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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02-07-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars -160 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 7* on DALLAS The Stars’ season got off to a late start because of COVID. But when they finally hit the ice, they opened 4-0 with all those wins coming at home. The next four were on the road and those didn’t go as well as they finished with a 1-2-1 record against Carolina and Columbus. But now they get to return to Dallas for the first time in more than a week and it looks to be a favorable matchup vs. the Blackhawks. Chicago did win its last game, a 6-4 surprise against Carolina where they came in at +150 on the money line. But that was just their fourth win of the season, two of which were against lowly Detroit. Dallas has also beaten Detroit a couple times. It’s hard to look past the fact the Stars scored seven times in two of their four home games. They ended up with a +13 goal differential in the four victories. Chicago has lost all six road games and done so by an average of 2.2 goals per game. That’s horrendous. The home team has won each of the last four times these clubs have met. It’ll be a rookie goaltender starting today for the Stars, but we don’t see that as a downgrade considering Anton Khudobin has allowed 11 goals the last three games. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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02-07-21 | Quinnipiac v. Fairfield +3.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FAIRFIELD It’s been awhile since we last saw either of these teams. It’s been a two-week absence for Quinnipiac since they defeated Niagara 78-69. For Fairfield, it’s been three weeks since they last played and upset Marist 55-52. Looking at the MAAC standings, you’ll find these two at the bottom. Quinnipiac has just two conference wins while Fairfield has three. Our side is technically in last with seven losses, but Quinnipiac has zero road wins this season and they are on the road today. The Bobcats have lost twice in true road games (both were at Monmouth) and are 0-2 in neutral court games. They are also 4-10 ATS their last 14 on the road. That Quinnipiac is laying points on the road here is very rare and would seem to make for a nice opportunity to fade. Though it’s been three weeks, Fairfield was excellent defensively in their last game as they’d allowed only 39 points with just over seven minutes remaining. The Stags are 20-8 ATS their last 28 games as a home underdog. Play on FAIRFIELD AAA |
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02-07-21 | Jazz v. Pacers +5 | Top | 103-95 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Utah is unquestionably the hottest team in the league right now as they’ve won 14 of the last 15 games. Making the run all the more impressive is the fact all but one of those victories has been by double digits. The one single-digit win happened to be against the team that also beat them last Sunday, Denver. With the best overall record in the Western Conference right now, the Jazz have to be feeling good about themselves. But I view this game as a potential “slip up” as Indiana has got to turn things around. The Pacers have lost two straight and four of five. The last loss was close as they were beaten 114-113 by New Orleans here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Remember that earlier in the week the Pacers did snap Memphis’ seven-game win streak with an emphatic 134-116 win at home. So there’s a precedent for beating a red-hot team.The Pacers are 5-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. They were -1.5 vs. New Orleans. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-06-21 | Warriors +4 v. Mavs | Top | 132-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE The Warriors crushed the Mavs on Thursday, winning 147-116. It was the second night of a back to back for Dallas, but that’s still no excuse to be beaten THAT badly, especially since Golden State had just nine players available for that game. Something is just not right with the Mavs, who have now dropped seven of their last eight. The lone victory during that stretch came in Atlanta, the night before getting destroyed by the Warriors. Golden State has yet to win (or lose) three in a row this season. But they have won back to back games five times. In fact, all 10 wins have “come in pairs.” So by that trend, they “should” win tonight. We’ll grab the points just to “be careful,” but it’s certainly difficult to look past what happened the other night and think this will be anything other than an outright win. Dallas is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. They are also just 1-7 against the spread their last eight games. The Warriors were our 10* Game of the Month last Saturday when they blew out the Pistons. They are our top choice again for this week. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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02-06-21 | Beneil Dariush v. Diego Ferreira OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 99 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is a rematch from 2014 when Dariush was able to record a unanimous decision victory over Ferreira. Ferreira lost his next fight, a 1st round knockout at the hands of Dustin Poirier (doesn’t seem so bad now, does it?), but has gone undefeated since and is on a six-fight win streak coming into this rematch. He’s now 17-2 in his career. Dariush is 19-4-1 and on a five-fight win streak. He won by spinning backfist last August against Scott Holtzman and it didn’t even take him a full round to do so. Dariush’s last four wins have all come in the first or second round. Ferreira, on the other hand, has had three of his six straight wins go to decision. We see this one going along the lines of the first fight, i.e. leaving it in the hands of the judges. Dariush would prefer to keep this fight standing and he possesses the necessary takedown defense to keep it that way. He’s also a bit stronger now compared to six years ago, so he won’t get overwhelmed in the grappling department. Play on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS AAA |
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02-06-21 | Texas Tech -16 v. Kansas State | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH The Big 12 is so tough this year (six teams are in the top 25). So if you are one of those top teams, you’ve got to take full advantage when you're faced with one of the conference’s couple lightweights. That’s the situation #13 Texas Tech finds itself in today as they get set to take on Kansas State. The Red Raiders are only 5-4 SU vs. the rest of the Big 12, which has them in 6th. But you should expect them to move up the standings after today’s tilt in Manhattan. Kansas State is really bad as they’ve now lost nine in a row. Most of the games haven’t been close either as the Wildcats’ ATS record is 4-13 including 0-5 L5. They are 1-10 ATS at home. The last four Big 12 games for KSU have resulted in losses by 23, 48, 22 and 26 points. They did actually stay within 11 of Texas Tech last month in Lubbock. But that was before the “bottom dropped out” on the season. The Wildcats’ have the second most starts in the country by true freshman and injuries/COVID have really taken hold of the roster. The last five games have seen Kansas State average 53.6 points. Texas Tech should keep them around that number and cover easily. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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02-06-21 | Coyotes v. Blues -161 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -161 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS The Blues had a four-game win streak end two nights ago. But the Stanley Cup Champs of two years ago will get a rubber match today with the ‘Yotes and it should prove to be a successful endeavor. The first two games here in St. Louis have both been decided by one goal, each by the same 4-3 score. The Blues won first (Tuesday) but then fell into an early 3-0 hole on Thursday that was too deep to climb out of. They ended up outshooting Arizona though 43-30. You’ve got to believe the Blues will get off to a better start tonight. Nor are they likely to be 0 for 4 on the power play again. Thursday also happened to be the Coyotes’ very first road win this season. They’ve won just five of their last 26 road games going back to the previous season. They are 7-21 off a win. All signs point to the home team taking Saturday’s game. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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02-06-21 | Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago -20 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOYOLA CHICAGO Two teams stand above the rest this year in the Missouri Valley. They are #25 Drake and Loyola Chicago. Though the former is ranked and undefeated, our view (and the view of most in the College Basketball community) is that Loyola is better. The Ramblers can prove that NEXT weekend when they’ll play two at Drake, but for now they get a pair of games vs. Evansville. This should be a guaranteed two wins this weekend for the Ramblers. It’s a big number Saturday, but we’ll lay it considering that Loyola is 12-3 ATS in all games this season, including 12-1 when favored and 6-0 at home. Last weekend, they won by 26 and 20 at Missouri State. They’re winning their home games by a margin of 28.5 points/game. None of their previous eight opponents have reached 60 points as this is one of the premier defensive teams in the country. That’s bad news for an Evansville squad averaging only 64 points on the road this season. The Purple Aces have just one road win and aren’t going to be competitive here. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO AAA |
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02-06-21 | Alabama v. Missouri +3 | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
THIS IS AN 8* ON MISSOURI These are the two top teams in the SEC, but right now there’s a huge gap between Alabama and everybody else. The Crimson Tide moved to 10-0 in conference play with another convincing win against LSU earlier this week. Looking across the country, you’re not going to find many teams that have a 10-0 record in their conference. But this is a stiff test for Bama as they head to Missouri on Saturday. The Tigers just took care of Kentucky on Wednesday to move to 12-3 overall this season. While G Pickett got injured vs. Kentucky, the Tigers have four double digit scorers that can more than account for his possible absence. Remember that last weekend Alabama lost to an Oklahoma team that didn’t have its leading scorer. Missouri has lost just once at home this season and that was to Tennessee. Alabama was picked to finish 10th (in the SEC!) in the preseason poll and we don’t see them going undefeated. This looks to be their toughest remaining game. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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02-05-21 | Celtics +5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Boston is playing its third straight game on the West Coast and they hope it goes more like the first one than the second. They started this trip by defeating the Warriors 111-107 as a 2-point favorite. The following night they lost 116-111 at Sacramento (were favored by 1 pt). Tonight they are an underdog at the Clippers, who have won all but two of their previous 13 games. They are tied with the Lakers (17-6) for 2nd in the Western Conference, trailing Utah by one-half game. Boston is 4th in the East. Key here is the Celtics are 5-3 ATS as underdogs with four outright wins. Coming off a long road trip, the Clips may be prone to a letdown in this situation and it’s a decent number they are laying to a good team. They are only 4-5-1 ATS as home favorites and 7-8-1 ATS off a win. They don’t have point guard Patrick Beverely in this contest and we can’t see them shooting as well from three tonight as they did against Cleveland. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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02-05-21 | Pistons v. Suns UNDER 215.5 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Pistons are bad. They are 5-16 overall and 1-9 on the road. Those records are tied with Minnesota for worst in the NBA. This road trip has predictably started poorly as they’ve lost to Golden State and Utah. Neither game was close. Then came a positive COVID test, cancelling a game vs. Denver. After this game, they’ve got the Lakers and Nets on the schedule so it’s about to get ugly. Phoenix did not play well against New Orleans on Wednesday, but had won three in a row before that. They should be just fine as they’re about to play seven straight at home against Eastern Conference teams. The Pistons are 7-1 Under in non-conference games this year. They beat the Suns last month by a score of 110-105, coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Phoenix is 6-2 Under with revenge. Before getting blitzed by the Pelicans, Phoenix had allowed 108 or less in four consecutive games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-05-21 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is obviously a really big mismatch on the Friday slate. Detroit is the team most would consider to be the worst in the league. They have just six points and have lost seven in a row. Tampa Bay is the team most would consider to be the best in the league. They have 13 points and have been beaten only one time in regulation. The Lightning have already proven their superiority in this matchup with a 5-1 win Wednesday. It was the third straight win for them and they’ve scored four or more times in all three games. You’ve got to like the Over here as TB is 3-0 Over at home when the total is 5.5. You’ve got to figure they’ll score at least four goals tonight. They average 4.8 per game at home. Can the Red Wings get to 2? Certainly. The Over is 3-0 for them if they scored one goal or less in their last game. Play on OVER AAA |