Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-25-21 | Nationals v. Mets -149 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY METS After picking up a deserved win for Jacob deGrom on Friday, the Mets were promptly beaten 7-1 on Saturday. We expect them to take this rubber match though. A .500 record is good enough for first place in the NL East right now and that’s where the Mets are at (8-8). The Nationals aren’t far behind (8-10), but even after yesterday they still have the worst run differential in the National League at -20. Yesterday’s game was pretty much decided early as Washington scored in each of the first five innings while the Mets threw away some opportunities, leaving two runners on base in both the first and fourth innings. New York had the third highest OBP (.330) in the NL going into yesterday, so that’s not a problem. All 10 of Washington’s hits Saturday were singles. Pat Corbin is off a strong effort for the Nats, which was shocking considering he allowed 16 runs in 6 ⅓ his first two starts. He has a 4.25 ERA in 17 career games vs. the Mets. Taijuan Walker goes for the Mets today, looking to make it four straight starts allowing 2 ER or less to start the year. Walker was one out away from getting through four innings without giving up a hit in his most recent start. Things fell apart, but we think the eventual statline was misleading. Play on NY METS AAA |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Senators v. Canucks -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER The Canucks get a second crack at the Senators after losing to them 3-0 on Thursday. That result gave Ottawa just its second three-game win streak of the season. All three have been on the road (Montreal, Calgary and here), which is a season first. The Sens have struggled all year, even more so than Vancouver has. Before Thursday, the Canucks were 5-0 against the Senators this year and 8-1 the last nine head to head meetings. They had their season paused recently and came back with a couple wins over first place Toronto. The idea that they would lose two in a row at home to Ottawa seems highly unlikely. The Senators have never won four in a row in 2021. Thursday was just their second shutout of the season. They are 2-6 coming off a win by two or more goals. The last time the team from the capital city won four in a row was March of 2017. The last time they won four straight on the road was 2016. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Marlins v. Giants -143 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO The Giants are 2 for 2 in this series with the Marlins as they continue to get exemplary starting pitching, particularly at home. Friday starter Alex Wood allowed a leadoff home run, but then retired 21 of the next 22 hitters he faced and didn’t give up another hit. That effort came on the heels of a 3-0 shutout on Thursday. The team is now 7-1 at home where they are allowing only 2.0 runs/game. Four of SF’s last six wins have come in shutout form, two of those against Miami. It’s Kevin Gausman’s turn Saturday and he comes in with a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his four starts and the last one was six shutout innings at Philadelphia. The Giants are allowing the fewest number of runs/game in all of baseball right now. Miami’s Pablo Lopez, winless this year, has made just one start on the road and it went poorly with him allowing six runs on nine hits. Lopez did pitch well at home vs. SF last weekend, but still lost the game 1-0. He doesn’t figure to pitch as well here while the Giants pitching just isn’t giving up much of anything right now. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Phillies -178 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA After losing eight of nine games, Colorado (7-12) has all of a sudden won three in a row. All of their wins this season have been at home. The latest was last night, in come from behind fashion, as they walked off against the Phillies 5-4. Philadelphia is now 9-10 on the young season and has lost three of its last four games. But we look for them to turn the tide Saturday. It starts with Aaron Nola, who they hand the baseball to. Nola tossed a complete game in his last start, a 2-0 win over St. Louis. He’s the best starter the Phillies have right now, so it’s really important that the team wins here. So far, they are 3-1 in Nola starts. Nola has allowed just one home run thus far and has 28 strikeouts vs. just three walks. We know the Phillies have struggled on the road this year and had just one win at Coors Field in 2018/19 (did not visit last season). But they were in position to win last night’s game, which they led 4-2, and should score plenty of runs tonight against Antonio Senzatela. This is the first time that Colorado has won three in a row in 2021 and the win streak is unlikely to last. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Bulls v. Heat -5 | Top | 101-106 | Push | 0 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI The Heat’s three-game run (win streak) ended Friday with a 118-113 loss in Atlanta. Now they host Chicago for a couple games. These games will have an effect on the Eastern Conference playoff race as the Heat (31-29) sit in seventh place while the Bulls (25-34) are one game back of 10th, which is where they need to be to make the new play-in round. Although we took them on Thursday and they beat Charlotte 108-91, the Bulls aren’t a very good team. Leading scorer Zach LaVine is still out indefinitely (quarantine). The Bulls last road game resulted in a 16-point loss at Cleveland, who isn’t very good. Miami wasn’t very good defensively on Friday, allowing a shorthanded Hawks team to shoot 53.8% and make 15 threes. They were also outrebounded and -13 in fast break points. They can’t afford to lose a second straight game to a team playing without its leading scorer. Several key players had bad shooting nights in Atlanta and we expect them to bounce back and deliver at home. The Heat won by 11 in Chicago last month. Play on MIAMI AAA |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. LOUIS +1.5 (PUCK LINE) After an eight-day pause, Colorado made a successful return to the ice Thursday night in St. Louis, winning here by a score of 4-2. The Avalanche have already clinched a playoff berth and obviously have their eyes on winning the division. But we don’t think Saturday’s rematch with the Blues will be that easy. St. Louis has its own motivation, that being just getting into the postseason. A win today could potentially allow them to leapfrog Arizona for fourth place. (The Coyotes play in LA tonight). At the very worst, a win will keep them just one point behind the ‘Yotes. We like the puck line quite a bit here. For those who have no knowledge of Thursday’s game, it was 3-2 before the Avs added an empty-netter in the final two minutes. Due to COVID-19 protocols, Colorado will still be without number one goalie Philipp Grubauer and two of their top forwards (Donskoi, Rantanen). Won’t deny how good the Avs have been the last month or so, but they’re probably due to slip up. Play on ST. LOUIS +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers and Padres are renewing their rivalry this weekend and things got off to a good start for the road team with a 3-2 win last night. But the Dodgers remain the class of baseball and aren’t about to lose two straight. While they have lost three of four, at no point this season has LA been beaten by the same opponent two days in a row. In fact, they’ve yet to lose two games in any series! They won two of the three games at San Diego last weekend. Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight and he’s been dominant over his last three starts, turning in a 0.47 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. Last Saturday he kept San Diego scoreless with six innings of two hit ball to improve to 22-7 against them all-time. That .759 win percentage is Kershaw’s best against any team in his Hall of Fame career. In 41 starts vs. the Padres, his ERA is 1.99. Once again, he faces Yu Darvish. Darvish was also great last Saturday in giving up one run in seven innings. But it’s just tough to envision San Diego winning twice in a row here as the Dodgers 89-34 at home the last three seasons and are allowing only 2.1 runs/game here this season. Very cheap price on the Dodgers at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Nuggets v. Warriors +3 | Top | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Denver enters Friday at 38-20 overall and in 4th place in the Western Conference. They’ve won four straight, but the last two have been by a total of three points and they didn’t cover either of those. Golden State is 29-30 SU this season and coming off a heartbreaking 118-114 loss at Washington Wednesday night. The Warriors are 10th in the West, just barely holding on to a spot for the play-in tournament. So this game would seem more important to them and they’ve got to love the fact it’s at home. Steph Curry and the boys haven’t played a home game in 11 days. The last one was against the Nuggets and they won 116-107 as 5.5-point underdogs. They just completed a successful road trip (3-2) and are 6-3 SU the last nine games overall. In that last meeting, Denver lost point guard Jamal Murray for the season to an ACL injury. We’re surprised they’ve done so well without him. Steph Curry had 53 points in that last meeting and after having an 11-game run of 30+ point games snapped Wednesday, look for him to have another big game tonight. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS the last 7 games vs. Denver. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Wild -158 v. Kings | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MINNESOTA The top two teams in the West Division (Vegas, Colorado) have already clinched. Not far behind them is Minnesota, who has 61 points and is in third place. There’s a huge gap between the Wild and fourth place, so they are going to be a playoff team this year. This gap is something previously discussed when we correctly selected the Wild on Wednesday. They beat Arizona 4-1 for their fifth straight win overall. This five-game win streak has seen them score 22 goals and give up only nine. Now it’s a quick one-game stop in LA to face a Kings team that is second to last in the division. The Kings traded away one of their top goal scorers (Jeff Carter) at the deadline and the only reason they are still in playoff contention is because the West is so weak beyond the top three. Minnesota is 5-2 vs. Los Angeles this season. The Kings have just three wins all month. They did win the last one, but that came against last place Anaheim. The last time the Kings won two straight was back in February. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Pirates v. Twins -152 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Twins have dropped four in a row coming into this series with the Pirates. The most recent loss was quite painful as they seemed poised to end Oakland’s 10-game win streak on Wednesday. But they made back to back errors, leading to a 13-12 loss in 10 innings. The A’s didn’t even have a hit as they scored three unearned runs in the final frame. That loss came after getting shutout in two straight games. Now Minnesota looks to “dust itself off” here against a Pittsburgh team that’s rebuilding in 2021. The Pirates have won 8 of 12, but do not expect that to last. This is a team that will struggle moving forward. They played yesterday in Detroit (won 4-2) while the Twins were off. JT Brubaker has had three solid starts for the Bucs, but again, that’s something that will probably not continue. JA Happ has pitched well enough for the Twins that he probably deserved a win in his first two starts. Pittsburgh is 5-22 its last 27 interleague games and 0-7 its last seven when facing a left-handed starter. Happ is a southpaw. The Twins are 12-5 their last 17 home games vs. the National League. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Marlins won 3-0 yesterday, but six of their last nine games have seen eight or more total runs scored. They average 6.0 runs per game when they take their act out on the road. That’s the highest average for road games among National League teams. The average will be put to the test this evening when they visit San Francisco, who isn’t giving up many runs at home this year. These teams played a three-game series in Miami last weekend where the Giants were held to just one run in two of the games. One was a win (1-0 obviously) and the other a loss (4-1). The middle game, won by the Marlins, ended up being 7-6. We look for something more along the lines of that one tonight. San Francisco has put 15 runs on the board in just the last two games and will get a second crack at Daniel Castano after only managing one run and three hits off him last week. More familiarity with the opposing pitcher should lead to a higher success rate at the plate, plus this game is in their ballpark. Miami will also be seeing Aaron Sanchez for a second time. They scored just one run off him the first time, but that was also the game that ended up 7-6. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Hornets v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO The race for the four play-in spots in the NBA’s Eastern Conference is intensifying. Washington has gotten hot and there are four teams separated by three games gunning for the last two playoff berths. Charlotte is a little bit ahead of those four teams, in eighth place, but fading rapidly as a rash of injuries have hurt literally and figuratively. Just 1-5 the last six games, the Hornets are without LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward. Without three of their top five scorers, the team has failed to even hit 100 points in five of the past 11 games. Really, we didn’t think this team was all that great BEFORE the injuries and this slide should continue tonight in Chicago. The Bulls are desperate after losing in Cleveland last night 121-105. They are one game back of 10th place as they’ve won just twice in their past eight games. Their leading scorer (Zach LaVine) is also out, but they are still a better offensive team than Charlotte. They also held Cleveland and Boston both to just 96 points in recent wins. We just see Charlotte as a team in a free-fall and it's unlikely to end with so many key players still missing. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Pelicans v. Magic UNDER 222.5 | Top | 135-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We’d like to think the Pelicans will win this game. They desperately need it as they’ve fallen 3.5 games behind the last spot for the play-in round. But we’re not going to lay a near double digit spread on the road with a team that’s lost four in a row and eight games below .500 for the year. Instead, we’ll count on this being a relatively low-scoring affair with the hapless Magic, who know a thing or two about losing themselves. Orlando has lost 9 of their last 10 games and was held to only 96 points in a loss at Atlanta Tuesday night. That was the fourth time this month - and third time in six games - that the Magic were held under 100 points. They are the second lowest scoring team in the league at 104.2 points per game. While the average does go up a bit at home, it’s not by much. So the Pelicans’ often leaky defense should not be an issue tonight. Consider that even with overtime these teams only combined for 225 points when they met in Orlando on April 1st. The total for that game was much lower. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings here in Orlando. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Flyers v. Rangers -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY RANGERS Two teams have already been eliminated from the playoff race in the East Division (Sabres and Devils), leaving six to battle for the four available playoff spots. The fifth place Rangers have to feel like they deserve one of them as they’ve got the best goal differential in the division (+28) and are 6-2-2 the L10 games. But not only are they still six points back of Boston, the Bruins also have two games in hand. That all makes tonight a must-win. Thankfully, they are facing Philadelphia, the one team still in this division race that we think DOESN’T have a shot at making the playoffs. The Flyers have a -34 goal differential, which is closer to the two eliminated teams than the five they are competing with for a postseason spot. That awful goal differential is largely due to how the Rangers have treated them. Who could forget the infamous 9-0 beating NY gave them back on St. Patrick’s Day? The Rangers also won 8-3 in Philly eight days after that. The season series is actually 3-3, but the Rangers really are so much better and we expect them to assert themselves tonight after suffering their worst loss of the season (6-1 to the Islanders) on Tuesday. The Flyers may again be without goalie Carter Hart. Play on NY RANGERS AAA |
|||||||
04-21-21 | Wild -141 v. Coyotes | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Minnesota is in a pretty comfortable spot right as they are third in the West Division with a 14-point cushion between them and fourth place Arizona. Four teams from every division make the playoffs this year and while the Coyotes are currently fourth, their spot is a lot more precarious as St. Louis is just one point back and two other teams are within five. In fact, the gap between the ‘Yotes and last place is narrower than the gap between them and the third place Wild. So the Wild are significantly better, which is why they are favored on the road here. Add in that Arizona has lost six of seven games, the last one 5-2 to the Wild, and that Minnesota has won its last four games. The Wild are 6-1 vs. the Coyotes this season. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
04-21-21 | Warriors -2 v. Wizards | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GSW Thanks to the latest virtuoso effort from Steph Curry (49 points), the Warriors were able to defeat Philadelphia Monday night 107-96. They are now 3-1 on the current road trip with Curry averaging 42.8 points/game on 55 percent shooting. Their next game is tonight in the Nation’s Capital against a Wizards team that has been surging of late with five straight wins. That win streak has them tied with Chicago for 10th place, the last available spot for the play-in round of the postseason. Golden State, who has won five of its last six overall, is 9th in the West. So this one is every bit as important to them. We don’t see how you can fade Curry right now, especially in this matchup against the team that gives up the second highest number of points/game in the league. The Warriors have revenge for a three-point home loss 12 days ago. The Wizards have a losing record at home. Golden State is 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS when favored this season. Washington did snap Utah’s long home win streak earlier in the month, but their last four wins have all been against non-playoff teams, the last two vs. Detroit and Oklahoma City, who might be the worst teams in each conference. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We told you to take the Angels -1.5 yesterday and they came through with a 6-2 victory against the Rangers. Shohei Ohtani threw four shutout innings, while at the plate both Trout and Pujols homered. Texas had just five hits as their offense continues to struggle. They did score six times on Monday, but five of those runs came in one inning, which matched their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings. So take away that one big inning and this lineup has scored just seven times in 41 innings. But they should break out today facing Jose Quintana, who gave up seven runs in just 1 ⅔ innings against Toronto on April 10th. The result was a 15-1 loss. His first start of 2021, resulted in a 7-6 win for the Angels, but Quintana allowed four runs in 3 ⅓ innings. The Over is obviously 2-0 in Quintana starts. Texas starter Mike Foltynewicz is 3-0 Under, but he’s also 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA. He gave up five runs his last start and has already allowed five home runs. This should be a high-scoring AL West battle. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-21-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals -166 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington pulled out a 3-2 win last night, scoring the game winning run in the bottom of the eighth on a bases loaded walk. For 5 ½ innings, no runs were scored by either team. It was a lot different than Monday’s opener when St. Louis won 12-5. Tonight the Nationals have what appears to be a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup with Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer has been outstanding in each of his previous two trips to the mound, allowing one run in six innings and no runs in seven innings. He’s allowed just five hits in those 13 innings and had 10 strikeouts last Friday vs. Arizona. The fact Scherzer has yet to earn a victory this season seems rather criminal. Can’t say the same for Carlos Martinez though as Wednesday’s starter for St. Louis is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA. The Cardinals have lost those three games by a combined score of 30-8. It’s been nearly three years since Martinez last won a start as he was a reliever in 2019, then went 0-3 as a starter (with a 9.90 ERA) last season. He’s 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA all-time vs. the Nationals. Scherzer vs. Martinez looks like a lopsided matchup to us and we’ll play accordingly. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
04-21-21 | Astros -144 v. Rockies | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -144 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON The Astros’ nine game win streak over the Rockies, which stretched back to 2018, came to an end Tuesday with a 6-2 loss. The key for Colorado was five RBI’s from CJ Cron as well as seven strong innings by starter Jon Gray. Still winless on the road (0-6), the Rockies are now 5-6 at Coors Field this season. The weather was cold last night and is expected to be so again this afternoon. But we look for Houston to come out a bit hotter. They’ll send Jose Urquidy to the mound. While he hasn’t won any of his previous three starts this season, Urquidy has a 2.87 ERA in three prior Interleague starts. He allowed only two runs on five hits in his last start, which came at Seattle. The Rockies go with Austin Gomber, who has pitched well both of his last two starts, only to not come away with a win either time. Colorado obviously scores more at home, but they are just 1-10 vs. right-handed starters this year and 2-6 in day games. Considering Houston averages almost six full runs per game on the road, they should have a good afternoon at the plate. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
04-20-21 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 226.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After having a seven-game win streak snapped in Philadelphia Friday night, the Clippers came right back and easily defeated Minnesota Sunday, 124-105 as 10 point favorites. They head to Portland for what should be a tougher test on Tuesday, although the Blazers are going to be without Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. With one team minus two key players, it may sound strange to be thinking Over here, but consider that Portland’s defense has been very bad for most of the season. Only Sacramento allows more points per possession. Kawhi Leonard is back for the Clippers, who have beaten the Trail Blazers five straight times. Two of those wins came earlier this season at home and LA scored 128 and 133 points. So this could get ugly for the Blazers. Also key here is the fact the Clippers have gone Under in three straight. So far, they are 3-0 to the Over this season when coming off three straight Unders. Portland is 5-1 Under its last six games, also a rarity. Since they are going to be without two key players, the O/U has come down several points, which feels like bettors overreacting. There’s some real nice value with the Over here as Portland games see an average of 229 points. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-20-21 | Ducks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The bottom two in the Pacific face off on Tuesday with the Kings hosting the Ducks. Though just three points separate the two teams, it sure feels like the Kings are a lot better as they’ve given up only 13 more goals than they’ve scored while Anaheim is -44 in that department. As much as we’d love to back the Kings at this price, we really can’t as they’ve allowed 25 goals in their last six games, all of which have gone Over the total. Anaheim isn’t exactly known for scoring (at least when they’re not playing San Jose), but they just gave up nine goals in two games to Vegas. So this feels like a game where there will be plenty of goals scored by both teams. The Kings haven’t played in nearly a week as two games vs. Colorado got scratched due to COVID-19. So their skaters should be fresh heading into this one. Keep an eye on the Anaheim power play though as it is MUCH better on the road than at home. When these teams played twice in Anaheim last month, the Kings scored five goals in each game, both times leading to an Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-20-21 | Rangers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA ANGELS -1.5 The Angels were upset yesterday by the Rangers, losing 6-4 in a game where they were big favorites. They actually had more hits than Texas, but sloppy defense (three errors) contributed to them falling into a 6-0 hole. Five of those six runs for the Rangers came in one inning (the sixth) and that equaled their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings combined. So we’re not sold on them being able to duplicate last night’s result. In fact, we think this should be such an easy win for the home team that you should lay the -1.5 on the run line. Ohtani is starting tonight for the Angels. The first start of the year for the two-way player did bring about control issues (five walks) but he only allowed two hits and the Angels won 7-4. The Angels also average 5.9 runs/game at home. Jordan Lyles, who won just one game for Texas last year, has already matched that win total in 2021 as he won his first start. But the last two have seen him give up three home runs and six runs total. He now has a 4.70 ERA. He has a 5.40 ERA in six career starts vs. LA. Play on LA ANGELS (-1.5) AAA |
|||||||
04-20-21 | Blue Jays +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TORONTO Boston is off to a great start so far at 11-6. Only the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by a greater margin. Yesterday morning, the Red Sox jumped all over the White Sox early en route to an 11-4 win. We had the Over, which was a winner by the second inning when the Red Sox were already up 8-1. But today is a day we expect the Red Sox to struggle as they have to face Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Blue Jays. Monday was an off-day for Toronto, much needed after they lost three of four in Kansas City. Boston not getting any time off between series has them at a disadvantage and Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in a start this year. He’s given up only five runs in three starts and has 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. We think it’s just a matter of time before the Toronto lineup wakes up and they’ve had success in the past against Eduardo Rodriguez, who gets the start today for Boston. Rodriguez has a 4.64 ERA in 14 previous tries against the Blue Jays. Boston is just 7-20 its last 27 home games vs. lefty starters. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 137-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Both the Grizzlies and Nuggets are dealing with injury concerns entering Monday’s clash. This will be Memphis’ third straight game on the road and they’ve got four more tough ones upcoming. The trip has started out well with them winning at Milwaukee and Chicago. But several players are listed as questionable for tonight, which is why the line has risen. However, lay the points with caution in this one as Denver is still getting over the loss of Jamal Murray, whose season is done. The Nuggets have scored 123 and 128 in their last two games, both wins and both Overs (they beat Miami and Houston). The Grizzlies have scored a few more in their last two games with 126 against the Bulls and 128 against the Bucks. Those two games also went Over. Our bet is that this one will go Over as well. Even with the injuries, both teams have proven they can still score. The Over is 6-0 the last six times Memphis has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-19-21 | Blackhawks v. Predators -134 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NASHVILLE Nashville is in fourth place in the Central, which is where you need to be if you want to make the playoffs. But two teams are within three points of them and on Monday they’ll host one of them. Chicago is the invader here and coming off a 4-0 win in Detroit. But the Red Wings are bad (last place) and so are the Blue Jackets, whom the Blackhawks swept a couple games from the previous series. Chicago’s last six games have all been against the three teams below them in the division, so a 4-2 record isn’t all that surprising. The Predators are coming off two losses at Carolina, which isn’t good. But they’ve won six of eight at home with one of those being a 3-0 blanking of Chicago on April 3rd. The Preds last home game was a 7-2 win against Tampa Bay and that’s very impressive. Even more impressive is their 19-4 record this year against teams with losing records. The Blackhawks are 21-19-5, a losing record, and 0-3 this season when they’re off a shutout win. They are also 2-8 after a win by two or more goals. So it’s a bad spot for them against a team they are already 0-5 against in 2021. Play on NASHVILLE AAA |
|||||||
04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox and Red Sox finish up a four-game series early Monday, in the traditional early start time to help celebrate Patriots’ Day. (Normally, the Boston Marathon would be run today, but that’s been pushed back to October due to the pandemic). The teams played two on Sunday with the White Sox winning 3-2 and 5-1. Both of those were seven-inning affairs with MLB’s new rules in place for doubleheaders. Going back to Saturday, the Red Sox won the opener 7-4. We’re back to nine innings today and we like the Over. Lucas Giolito starts for Chicago. He’s been quite effective so far, including seven shutout innings (in a losing effort) his last trip to the mound. But Boston came into yesterday averaging nearly 6.0 runs/game and 6.7 against right-handed starters. Giolito has given up seven runs in 17 previous innings vs. the Red Sox. The starter for the home team will be Nathan Eovaldi, who is similarly off to a great start to 2021. But he has a 5.59 ERA vs. the White Sox, who were averaging 5.7 runs/game on the road going into Sunday. Watch the line as Boston is 6-1 Over its last seven as home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-18-21 | Kings v. Mavs -8 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas is not only off a 117-109 loss to the Knicks (were 6.5-point favorites), but has also failed to cover four in a row. They have a golden opportunity to turn things around Sunday when they host the Kings, losers of nine straight. Sacramento was at least competitive in its last game, but they still lost by eight in Phoenix. They hadn’t covered in five straight before that. No Marvin Bagley III for tonight either. Very bad defense has been the Kings problem all season. They give up the most points per game in the league. This feels like it should be a big offensive night for Dallas, who has struggled at home, They badly want to move up into sixth place in the Western Conference and thus avoid the play-in round for the postseason. They are two games back of sixth place Portland right now. Off their last 10 straight up losses, the Mavs are 7-3 against the spread. This is a mismatch and the Kings haven’t stayed within seven points of anybody in their past six games. Play on DALLAS AAA |
|||||||
04-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We had Vegas -1.5 when they beat Anaheim 4-0 on Friday. There was a pretty strong case that the Golden Knight would roll in that spot and sure enough they did with a monumental 51-16 edge in shots on goal. Vegas is averaging 4.4 goals during a five game win streak, but they’ve also posted two shutouts and have given up just eight goals the last four games. Anaheim is 5-0 Under its last five games and while they two four-goal wins against San Jose, they haven’t beaten anyone besides the Sharks in April! In the last six games not against the Sharks, the Ducks have failed to score more than two goals. They have just one in the last three. Vegas is so good at limiting shots and we don’t think they’re going to go for four (or more) goals again. Four of the last five meetings have gone Under and this one has the potential to be lower scoring than Friday was. The Under is 15-7-1 their past 23 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-18-21 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Blue Jays and Royals played a doubleheader on Saturday. Both teams got a win and both games stayed Under. Toronto won the first, 5-1, before KC came back with a 3-2 win of their own. Keep in mind those were only seven inning games per MLB’s “new” rules. We’re set to play a full nine today and look for more runs to be scored as a result. The Jays got a really strong start from Steven Matz in Game 1 yesterday. But their starter for Sunday, Robbie Ray, figures to be less impressive. Ray and Royals starter Brad Singer were both supposed to go Friday before the rain interfered. Singer has had a poor start to the year with a 6.48 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The second game yesterday is the only time in the last five games that Toronto didn’t score five or more runs. Kansas City averages 5.7 runs per game at home, but also gives up 5.1. Don’t forget that Thursday’s game was a 7-5 final (KC won). We expect something along those lines here. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-18-21 | Pelicans v. Knicks OVER 218.5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Pelicans, who are desperate for a win, have lost two in a row. They went off as the betting favorite in both defeats. One of them was to the Knicks, who are on an eight-game ATS win streak. The teams now meet for the second time in five days Sunday afternoon, but this time at Madison Square Garden. After beating the Pelicans 116-106 on Wednesday, the Knicks then defeated Dallas 117-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. They’ve gone off as the dog in five of these eight straight ATS wins. Two of those games they lost, but they are now on a five-game SU win streak as they are now sixth in the Eastern Conference. New Orleans badly needs this game as they are 11th in the Western Conference and 2.5 games back of 10th. They lost 117-115 in overtime at Washington on Friday night, a terrible result given their current circumstance and that they held the Wizards to 4 of 27 from three-point range. The Knicks’ Julius Randle is as hot as anyone right now with 76 points in the last two games. The Pelicans give up the third most points per possession in the league. Wednesday’s game went Over the total and so should this one as the Knicks are 3-0 Over their last three games, averaging almost 115 points/game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-18-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -185 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -185 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on WASHINGTON The Nationals were embarrassed in the first game of this series, losing 11-6. But they’ve subsequently won 1-0 and 6-2 against the Diamondbacks the past two days. We like them to make it three in a row behind Stephen Strasburg on Sunday. Strasburg has pitched twice in 2021, once at home and once on the road. The one at home went much better as he held the Braves scoreless over six innings and allowed only one hit. We’ll just forget what happened in St. Louis earlier this week. Arizona isn’t very good as they’ve got just one series win so far. They’ve lost four of five and Madison Bumgarner no longer inspires much confidence when he’s on the mound. Both of Bumgarner’s starts have not gone well. He allowed five runs to Colorado and while that could be chalked up to “Coors Field,” he then allowed six runs at home to Oakland. Washington’s lineup produced 14 hits on Saturday. There have been 19 times the last three seasons that Arizona has been a road underdog of +175 to +250. They’ve lost 15 of those, including a 1-4 record so far this year. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
04-17-21 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 214 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Bulls are in a terrible way right now. Five consecutive losses and they are without top scorer, Zach LaVine (quarantine). It was a 126-115 home loss last night to Memphis as Chicago gave up 69 points in a disastrous second half. They haven’t covered the spread in any of the five losses either as only one of the games was decided by fewer than nine points. The Bulls get to stay at home tonight as they face Cleveland. While this looks like a favorable matchup for the hosts, we think it’s more conducive to an Under. Cleveland is the lowest scoring team in the league at 103.9 points/game and they drop below 100 points/game (99.8) on the road. Chicago isn’t doing much better of late, averaging only 104.9 points/game during the five-game skid. Without LaVine, the Bulls aren’t getting much offense besides the recently acquired Nikola Vucevic and Coby White, who went for 27 points Friday. The other three starters combined for just 18 points! These teams were in action against one another last month. The final score was 103-94 (Cleveland!) and that was the fourth time in the last five meetings here in Chicago that the Under cashed. Make it five of six. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-17-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars -180 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 7* on DALLAS Dallas needs to start moving up the standings now. They are five points behind fourth place Nashville in the Central Division. The key is the Stars have three games in hand compared to the Predators and two in hand compared to the fifth place Blackhawks. So making up the necessary ground seems quite doable. Based on goal differential, you’d think the Stars are capable as well. They have a +9 goal differential whereas Nashville is -7 and Chicago is -16. So really, Dallas has been a better team than those two this year. They fell behind due to early season problems with COVID. Now is the time to start moving up and we like their shot at getting two points tonight as they host one of the two teams below them in the division, Columbus. The Stars just beat the Blue Jackets 4-1 on Thursday. C-bus has lost four in a row, seven of eight and 11 of the last 13. Play on DALLAS AAA |
|||||||
04-17-21 | Orioles v. Rangers -131 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS The Rangers were beaten 5-2 by the Orioles last night, but we look for them to even this series up at a game apiece Saturday night. There’s a huge edge in starting pitching tonight as Dane Dunning goes against Dean Kremer. Dunning, the Rangers starter, has looked great thus far. He’s allowed just one run in two starts (it came on a home run) and only five hits as well. He was a hard luck loser the last time out as Texas fell 1-0 to Tampa Bay. But Dunning can expect his offense to put some runs on the board here against Baltimore’s Kremer, who has only managed to make it three innings in each of his two starts to this point. He’s given up seven runs. A pitcher with a 0.78 WHIP facing a pitcher with a 2.33 WHIP sounds like a real mismatch to us. Baltimore is 5-2 on the road so far, not something you’d expect from a team that’s expected to be really bad this season. So fade them accordingly moving forward, including tonight as we don’t see them as likely to win two in a row here. Especially with the starting pitching matchup so obviously not in their favor. Play on TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
04-16-21 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 4-0 | Win | 111 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on VEGAS -1.5 Vegas is in second place in the West Division, four points behind Colorado. They have won four in a row and perhaps even more impressive is that they’ve scored six or more goals in three of the last six games. We expect it to be another easy two points tonight for the Golden Knights as they visit last place Anaheim, a team they are already 4-1 against this season. The Ducks did just take two games in San Jose and scored four goals in both victories. But they have lost their last five games that weren’t against the Sharks. They’ve been outshot pretty badly the last five games. They are allowing 36.2 shots per game, so it’s lucky they’ve allowed only 1.6 goals. Vegas is just the reverse as they’ve allowed just 25.0 shots per game their last five and an average of 2.2 goals. We’re so confident in the Golden Knights here that we’ll lay the -1.5 on the puck line. Play on VEGAS -1.5. AAA |
|||||||
04-16-21 | Tigers v. A's -175 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland ended Detroit’s three-game win streak last night, taking the series opener by a score of 8-4. Tigers’ pitching made it pretty easy on the A’s as they issued 12 walks in the game, two coming when the bases were loaded in the sixth inning. Wouldn’t you know that control issues have been a problem for Friday’s starter Jose Urena as well? The Tigers’ righty has walked nine batters in two starts which have lasted only 7 ⅔ innings. The team lost both of those games, rather handily. First it was 15-6 to the Twins, then 5-2 to the Indians. Detroit isn’t going to be very good this year, so the fact they swept Houston was a surprise. But this series looks like it will go differently. Oakland is on a five-game win streak and sends Frankie Montas to the bump tonight. After being rocked by the Dodgers in his first start, Montas came back and delivered six solid innings in a win over Houston in his last start. The A’s won that game 7-3 and the only run allowed by Montas was a solo homer. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
04-16-21 | Blazers -1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND With just one month left in the regular season, Portland and San Antonio are both struggling at an inopportune time. The Trail Blazers have lost four of five, the most recent loss coming by one point to Boston on Tuesday. The Spurs have lost six of eight and were beaten 117-112 by Toronto on Wednesday. In sixth place as opposed to 10th, the Blazers are in a much better spot than San Antonio right now and we like them to be the ones to bounce back tonight. Compared to a lot of the teams Portland has faced recently, the Spurs are a weak opponent. The Blazers’ SU record vs. sub .500 teams this year is 23-7 and that includes 5-0 in the second half. The Blazers also have a winning record on the road. San Antonio is 12-17 SU at home and is coming off a week-long road trip. They have to head back out on the road for two more (starting tomorrow) and thus will have “less in the tank” here compared to the Blazers, who have been off for two days. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
04-16-21 | Pacers v. Jazz OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Jazz had only seven players score on Tuesday, but six of them finished in double figures as they defeated the Thunder 106-96. It was not a good shooting night overall for the Western Conference leaders as they finished the game with a 41.8 field goal percentage. But after falling behind by 17 early, they were able to hold Oklahoma City to a 38.7 FG%. We expect to see more scoring in today’s game vs. Indiana, who has scored at least 132 four times in their last seven games. The Pacers shot very well against Houston (53.2%) two nights ago. But an issue to keep an eye on is that they’ve also allowed 124 or more points in five of their last seven games. Utah puts up 118.6 points/game at home, so we are anticipating they’ll score a lot today, even if some of the injured players that sat out Tuesday do not return here. The Over is 6-1 in Indiana’s past seven games as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-16-21 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Cubs hitting, or should we say “lack thereof,” has been dreadful so far. As a team, they are batting .163. No other team in the National League strikes out at a higher rate and no team in all of MLB scores fewer runs per game. They are averaging fewer than five hits per game and off a shutout loss (7-0) at the hands of Milwaukee. At home things are even more dire as they have hit just .124 in six games! But a visit from the Braves and the afternoon Wrigley wind should lead to a change in things on Friday. Atlanta’s last seven games have averaged just over 12 runs with them scoring and allowing 6.0 per. Six of those seven games went Over the total including each of the last three. Braves starter Drew Smyly has struggled with the home run ball thus far, allowing three in his two starts and if the wind is blowing out today that should continue to be a problem. The only other time Smyly faced the Cubs, he allowed a pair of home runs. Cubs starter Davies has allowed just one HR so far, but he gave up seven runs while getting only five outs in his last start. We don’t like his chances against Ronald Acuna Jr, who leads MLB with seven home runs. This one goes Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER While tonight’s Celtics-Lakers matchup certainly lacks the prestige of past editions, it does offer up an excellent opportunity to bet the Under. The Lakers are still without both of their superstars, LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Relative to expectations, they’ve actually done okay without them by winning six of the last 10 games. They are off a 101-93 win against Charlotte, which snapped a four-game Over run. But there has been only one time in the previous six games that the Lakers have scored more than 110 points. The last two games have seen them score a total of 197 points. Boston, save for an overtime win against Minnesota last week, has done a good job at the defensive end lately. A four-game win streak has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference. The Lakers are fifth in the Western Conference. The Under is 8-2 in Boston’s last 10 games and the Lakers are tops in the West with a PPG against average of 105.6. The Under is 18-4 this season when the Lakers play a team with a winning record. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-15-21 | Blackhawks -158 v. Red Wings | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The top four teams in every division make the playoffs this season. Chicago is currently fifth in the Central Division, four points back of Nashville. They will play the Predators three times next week. But first they’ve got two games against last place Detroit and winning these are equally important. The Red Wings are very bad and way off the playoff pace. That they just took two in Carolina makes us think they are quite vulnerable to defeat tonight. This is only the fourth time all season the Red Wings have won two straight games. They have yet to win three in a row. Coming off the three previous instances of winning back to back games, the Red Wings have been outscored 14-3 and lost by at least three goals every time. Chicago has won five of the six head to head meetings this season and one of those was when Detroit was off two straight wins. That was a 7-2 win. Coming off a pair of 4-3 wins in Columbus, the Blackhawks cannot afford to slip up here. They won’t. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Indians weren’t just beaten 8-0 last night by the White Sox. They were no-hit by Carlos Rondon, the second no-no we’ve seen so far this season. The only runner Cleveland got on base was Roberto Perez in the ninth and that was after he was hit by an 0-2 slider. It was the second straight shutout in the series as the Indians won 2-0 on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener 4-3. Look for today’s finale to be the highest scoring game of the series. That may seem like an odd prediction based on how both of Thursday’s starters have performed so far in 2021. But Indians starter Civale has only had to face the Tigers - twice. After a six-run first inning last night, it seems like the White Sox should have finished with more runs. Of course, they didn’t need any. Tim Anderson, who has finished top two in batting average each of the last two seasons, will be back in the Sox lineup Thursday. We also think Cleveland can score at least four runs today. That’s how many they scored after the only other game where they were shutout this season. They are also 5-0 Over after allowing five or more runs in their last game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-14-21 | Knicks v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Both the Knicks and Pelicans are on three-game win streaks coming into tonight. Only one of those streaks can obviously continue and we think it will be the Pelicans. They’ve beaten Philadelphia, Cleveland and Sacramento. The Knicks have beaten Memphis, Toronto and the Lakers. New York is 6-0 ATS its last six games, but those last three wins all came at home. The Knicks are 8th in the East, but could move as high as 6th with a win here tonight. New Orleans is more desperate as they are a game behind Golden State for the last play-in spot. We expect them to assert themselves here as they led Sacramento by as much as 23 the other night before letting things get a little too close for comfort at the end. Zion Williamson has averaged 35 points/game during the win streak. But the big key here is the Knicks’ 0-5 record, both straight up and against the spread, when they are on a three-game win streak this season. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Braves have dropped both games to the Marlins so far. The first was one they let get away. They led 3-1 going into the eighth, but then let Miami tie the game up and lost in extras, 5-3. We were happy about that result as we had the Marlins +1.5 after calling it a “tough spot” for Atlanta coming off the controversial loss Sunday night. Last night saw things get really one sided as the Marlins won 14-8. Given the odds for tonight, you’ve gotta think Atlanta is going to break through. We’ll take the Under with Charlie Morton starting as he’s allowed only four runs in 11 innings so far this season. Last night was not only Miami’s season high in both runs and hits, but they also exceeded their total number of runs scored from the previous six games combined. So look for a quiet night at the plate from them. Marlins starter Nick Neidert will have to reduce the number of walks (5) from his first start, but we like the fact he still allowed just one run. This game should resemble Monday not Tuesday and presuming Atlanta is up, they won’t have to bat in the ninth inning. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-14-21 | Phillies -113 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Big time revenge here for the Phillies as they got swept in yesterday’s doubleheader. After losing the opener 4-3 in extra innings, they were blanked 4-0 in the nightcap. That Game 1 loss particularly stung as the Phillies had struck first in extras to take a 3-2 lead. But it was not to be and they now are one controversial call away from being 0-5 their previous five games. The Mets sending David Peterson to the mound should give Philly hope tonight. Peterson really struggled in his first start. He gave up six runs and did we mention that was against the Phillies? It was. Zach Wheeler gets the start for Philly and he will be hoping this third start goes more like his first than the second. That first time out saw Wheeler go seven innings, strike out 10 batters and allow only one hit. That was vs. Atlanta. When he faced the Braves a second time, it didn’t go as well. The Phillies were 6-3 going into yesterday’s twinbill and we don’t see them getting beat for a third time in two days by a Mets team that struggles when off a win. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
|||||||
04-14-21 | Jets -172 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on WINNIPEG Winnipeg is looking for a measure of revenge here after losing 4-2 in the Canadian capital on Monday. Losing to the Senators is not acceptable if you’re the Jets (or really anyone else for that matter) as the hosts are the last place team in the all-Canadian North Division and probably the worst team in the league outside of Buffalo. The good news is that Ottawa has posted back to back wins just one time since the end of February and only three times all season. So this one sets up well for the visitors, who are locked into a tight battle with Edmonton for second place in the North. The Jets had won three in a row before Monday’s loss, one of those coming against Ottawa. They’d scored four or more goals in all three of those wins while the Sens had surrendered a total of 17 goals during a four-game losing streak that ended with Monday’s win. The Jets are 5-2 vs. the Senators this season and did have a 2-0 lead just nine minutes into the last game. It was certainly surprising to see them blow that kind of advantage. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
|||||||
04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE This is the rubber match between NL Central foes as the winner will take the series. The Cubs snapped a three-game losing skid yesterday with a narrow 3-2 victory. Milwaukee was held to just three hits, but it wasn’t until the 8th inning - when Wilson Contreras homered - that the Cubs were able to take the lead. Despite the much needed victory, they shouldn’t be rejoicing too much in the Windy City. It was the seventh consecutive game where the Cubs were held to four runs or less. Now they must face Corbin Burnes, who has been stellar through two starts for the Brewers. Burnes has allowed just one run and two hits thus far, striking out 20 batters and walking none. That’s in 12 ⅓ IP. The problem is Milwaukee has somehow found a way to lose BOTH games. But if Burnes keeps pitching like that, you’ve gotta figure he’ll break through into the win column. The Cubs are still only 2-6 vs. righties so far, even after the win yesterday. Jake Arrieta does have a 2-0 team start record, but his WHIP is 1.417, a far cry from the other-worldly 0.162 posted by Burnes. This is all about Burnes being due for a win. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns -3 | Top | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Over their past two games, the Suns have scored a total of 260 points. They had 81 by halftime last night against Houston as they set a new NBA record with 18 threes made in a single half. Don’t be fooled by that final score from last night either. While it ended up being 126-120, Phoenix was up big much of the way. Tonight they play host to Miami and covering a large spread isn’t something they’ll have to concern themselves with. Winners of nine of their last ten games, the Suns can get within one game of Utah for first place in the West. They are 16-6 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. Miami is 6-1 its last seven games, but isn’t in Phoenix’s league. The Heat lost by 10 at home to the Suns last month and also lost by seven to them in last season’s bubble. They are 6-14 straight up and 7-13 against the spread vs. teams that have a winning record. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
|||||||
04-13-21 | Tigers v. Astros -177 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -177 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 7* on HOUSTON Houston losing two nights in a row to Detroit does not seem likely. Nor does the Astros losing a fourth straight home game. So we will take Houston here. Though they only put up two runs Monday night, both of which came on solo homers, the Astros had plenty of other opportunities to score. The problem was that they were 0 for 11 when they had runners in scoring position! Normally, it’s Detroit that struggles to put the bat on the ball. As a team, they are batting just .194 in the early going. Tigers starter Matthew Boyd has looked good in two starts so far, but he has a 5.91 ERA in four career starts against the Astros. Jake Odorizzi goes for Houston in what will be his first start of 2021. He has had success in the past vs. Detroit with a 6-1 record and 3.09 ERA in 12 starts. We expect Houston’s offense to wake up tonight and them to move to 37-15 their last 52 home games when facing a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
04-13-21 | Lightning -170 v. Predators | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY This is the second time in four days that the Lightning and Predators will face off. We took Tampa Bay on Saturday and that ended up being a rather easy 3-0 win. The Lightning have been off ever since. That’s not the case for Nashville, who won a game against Dallas 3-2 on Sunday. Even though it was a win, the Preds having a game in between two matchups with Tampa Bay puts them at a disadvantage. Especially since Sunday’s game went to a shootout. Tonight is already a less than ideal matchup for them. They are 1-6 this season against the ‘Ning. We mentioned the following in Saturday’s writeup, but it bears repeating. Since getting “hot” in late March, Nashville has zero wins against the top three teams in the division. They are 2-11 L13 vs. teams with a win percentage of greater than .600 and 1-10 L11 as home underdogs. Tampa Bay’s +40 goal differential is second best in the entire league. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
|||||||
04-12-21 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER New Orleans got the win it needed last night as they rallied to defeat Cleveland 116-109. We laid the points with the Pelicans, so we ended up happy. Now they head back home to face slumping Sacramento. The Kings have lost six straight games and have ended up with 106 points or less in four of the losses. The last two games have seen the Pelicans play some defense as they held Philadelphia to 94 before holding Cleveland to 109 last night. The Under is 12-5 in the Kings last 17 games and 7-3 L10 road games. They are 7-2 Under off an ATS loss. New Orleans does have the most Overs in the league, which is why the total is so high, but even they are 3-1 Under last four. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-12-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI +1.5 This is a tough spot for Atlanta as they are off a controversial 7-6 loss on Sunday Night Baseball. A play at the plate (bad call) determined the outcome of the game and the Braves were rightly hot that things went against them. Now they have to turn around and host a Miami team that’s off a 3-0 win over the Mets on Sunday and looking for revenge. The revenge stems from the end of last year when the Braves swept the Marlins out of the playoffs. We’ll grab the +1.5 with Miami here as Sandy Alcantara has pitched very well in his two starts despite having an 0-2 TSR. He had 10 strikeouts in his last start and has allowed only three runs and six hits so far. There hasn’t been much run support, but that will come. Atlanta goes with Huascar Ynoa, who has only two starts of longer than three innings in his career. One was Wednesday when he shut Washington out for five innings. But we don’t think he’s better than Alcantara. This should be a low-scoring game where 1.5 runs in our back pocket will come in handy. Play on MIAMI +1.5 AAA |
|||||||
04-12-21 | Jets -190 v. Senators | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 7* on WINNIPEG Big mismatch here. Winnipeg has won three in a row. The last two wins were in Montreal, 4-2 and 5-0. The first was 4-3 against the team they’ll play again tonight, Ottawa. The last place Senators are on a four-game losing streak. Since losing at Winnipeg on April 5th, they’ve lost twice to Edmonton (at home) and then 6-5 at Toronto on Saturday. There is a big dividing line between the top four and bottom three in the all-Canadian North Division. Really, the playoff field is already set. It’s just a matter of determining the order of finish for the top four. The Jets are in second place, six points back of the Leafs. They are 5-1 against Ottawa this season and have scored four or more goals in all five wins. The Senators have the single worst goal differential in the league. Yes, even worse than Buffalo, even though they have four more points than the Senators. Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck has allowed only 13 goals in his last nine starts. Ottawa did score five goals last time out, but they are 1-8 this season after scoring four or more in the last game. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
|||||||
04-11-21 | Pelicans -6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Rough situation here for Cleveland, who is playing without rest against a New Orleans team that lambasted them 116-82 last month. Here at home, the Cavs gave up 135 points last night to a Toronto team that was severely short-handed. Gary Trent Jr scored 44 for the Raptors! So Zion Williamson has to be “licking his chops” heading into this Sunday night matchup as the Pelicans look to make it two straight wins. On Friday, they defeated Philadelphia 101-94 as a five-point home underdog. Now they are a road favorite, a big difference, but they also go from facing one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference to one of the worst. New Orleans really needs to win this game as they are 1.5 games behind Golden State (who was victorious last night) for the last playoff spot. There were two times earlier in the season where the Cavs suffered an outright loss when they were favored to win. After both of those losses, they failed to cover the next game. They’re in that situation again here, a situation they are 3-7 ATS L10. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
04-11-21 | Penguins -178 v. Devils | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 7* on PITTSBURGH The Penguins not only look to put some more space between them and fourth place in the East Division, but also possibly move into a first place tie with the Islanders and Capitals. To do so, all they need is a win tonight in New Jersey, which should be just as easy as it sounds.Two night ago, the Pens won here by a score of 6-4. That was the fifth straight game they scored four or more goals. In their last nine games, Pittsburgh has won a total of seven times and there have been six times they scored four or more goals. That seems like too much firepower for the Devils to handle. It was 5-2 midway through the third period on Friday. New Jersey’s 34 points are fourth fewest in the NHL with only three last place teams below them. That’s 20 points less than what Pittsburgh has coming into tonight. The Penguins have scored the second most goals in the league. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
|||||||
04-11-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON +1.5 It’s rare you get Max Scherzer +1.5 runs, let alone with this kind of minimal price tag attached. So you’ve got to figure that the opponent can only be one team and if you guessed “the Dodgers,” then go ahead and pat yourself on the back. Los Angeles is going for the sweep Sunday afternoon as they’ve beaten Washington 1-0 and 9-5 the last two days. But we give the Nats a shot at winning today and don’t think they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss. Scherzer allowed four solo home runs in his first start. But other than those, he gave up just one other hit. He had nine strikeouts and zero walks and the Nationals wound up beating the Braves 6-5. Kershaw was similarly impressive in his last outing, but not so much in the first (allowed six runs), which could be chalked up to being in Colorado. We realize that LA has lost just one time since Opening Day and Washington is on a four-game losing streak. But two of those four losses were by one run. Even in yesterday’s loss, the Nationals had 15 hits to the Dodgers’ nine. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
04-10-21 | Kings +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 112-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO Back on Thursday, Utah avoided what would have been the first three-game losing streak of the season, defeating Portland 122-103. But they had to rally from a halftime deficit to do so. They used a 40-19 third quarter to seize control of the game and that was “all she wrote” as the Jazz won their 23rd straight home game. They’re at home again tonight and facing a Kings team that has lost five in a row. But predictably the number is large. Too large in our eyes as Sacramento hasn’t gotten this many points in a game all season. What’s strange about the Kings’ five game losing streak is that they were favored on three different occasions. They’d also WON five in a row before losing five straight. They’ve gone off as the favorite in six of their last ten games. The four times they’ve been underdogs, they are 3-1 ATS with two outright wins and one of the losses coming by just one point. We think the team comes in with a positive mindset after a poor effort at home vs. Detroit the other night. Utah is only 2-6 ATS coming off their previous eight wins by 10 or more points. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
|||||||
04-10-21 | Lightning -175 v. Predators | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay is in Nashville tonight knowing there’s a chance that two points would allow them to overtake Florida for the top spot in the Central Division (that’s if Florida were to lose tonight in Dallas). The reigning Stanley Cup Champions look good to us as they beat Columbus 6-4 on Thursday. While they’ve won just three times in the last eight games, which would qualify as a “swoon” by their standards, they are 5-1 this season vs. the Predators. While Steven Stamkos is questionable and the Preds have been hot (9-1 L10), the Lightning are still favorites for a reason. They are simply the better side. It should be pointed out that four of Nashville’s recent wins came against last place Detroit. None of the nine wins have been against any of the top three in the Central Division. The Preds are 2-10 L12 vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater and 1-9 L10 as home underdogs. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
|||||||
04-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Since being swept by Baltimore to open the season, the Red Sox have won four straight. Following an off-day, they look to make it two straight over the Orioles here at Camden Yards. Obviously, Thursday’s series opener went much differently than the series at Fenway last week. Boston won 7-3 and has now scored at least six runs in each of its four wins. But Saturday starter Garrett Richards had a terrible first outing vs. the O’s, lasting just two innings while giving up six runs. Baltimore pitching has given up exactly seven runs in three of the last four games. Saturday starter Zimmerman was on the winning end of Richards’ first start, but isn’t likely to pitch as well the second time around. Boston’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They are on an 8-0 Over run after scoring five or more runs the previous game, going back to 2020. The Orioles are 7-3 Over in the second game of a series. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-09-21 | Wolves +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 136-145 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA This is the kind of game where everyone just assumes the Celtics will “roll,” but doing that is often easier said than done. Minnesota may not have a very good record, but they’ve covered five of the last eight games and the last one (which they did NOT cover) was only a four-point loss. Boston is off a two-point win against the Knicks, but has not been scoring a ton recently and failed to cover four of its last six games. They finished with just 101 points against the Knicks after being held to 96 in a loss to the Sixers. That’s just not enough offense to make us think they can cover this large spread. This Celtics team hasn’t been above .500 in almost a month and basically lives off reputation. They were down seven in the fourth quarter to the Knicks. Minnesota will be looking for a win here as it has not prevailed in Beantown since 2005. Nor have they beaten the Celtics anywhere going back to 2016. That’ll be on the minds of players tonight and Karl-Anthony Towns, who had 32-12 against Indiana, should keep them in this one. Grab the points. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It seems as if the National League East is the consensus choice as the “toughest division in baseball” this season. We don’t expect many runs to be scored in this Phillies-Braves series opener on Friday. Both teams were off Thursday. Philadelphia has opened 4-1 and swept Atlanta at home to start the 2021 season. But the Braves, despite being 2-4, have to like their chances at revenge because they are 42-18 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the past two seasons. All three games in the series at Citizens Bank Park last week stayed Under. The most total runs scored in any of the three was five! Philly’s recently completed series with the Mets went much differently as all three games went Over. Tonight’s game features a starting pitching rematch from 4/3 as Zack Wheeler opposes Charlie Morton. Wheeler was masterful in the game last Saturday as he went seven innings and allowed only one hit. He had 10 strikeouts and no walks. Morton wasn’t bad either; he gave up three runs over five innings. But it didn’t matter considering how good Wheeler was and the Phillies won the game 4-0. Look for another low-scoring affair tonight as the Braves are batting just .170 in the early going. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-09-21 | Capitals v. Sabres UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER If you follow the NHL, you’re well aware that Buffalo has become quite the embarrassment. They were beaten again last night, 6-3 at home by New Jersey, and have now dropped 20 of their last 23 games. That includes a record-setting (for the shootout era) 18-game losing streak from February 25th through March 29th. There was a 3-0-2 run going into last night, but the Sabres allowing the Devils to score six times was a painful reminder why this is the worst team in the league. They are 1-16-1 this season against the top four teams in the division. They play one of those four tonight. Washington has lost three of five, but was 17-3-1 in the 21 games before that. They are 5-0-1 vs. the Sabres in 2021 with a 14-5 goal advantage in the three games here in Buffalo. We look for tonight’s game to stay Under the total. The Capitals are coming off a 4-2 loss last night in Boston, their fourth loss in six games. They didn’t score the game before that, but have also held two of the last four opponents to just one goal. The Caps are 5-0 Under L5 games without rest. The Sabres are 18-6 L24. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-08-21 | Cavs v. Thunder OVER 213 | Top | 129-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER You’ve got two bad teams ready to square off Thursday. The fact Oklahoma City is getting points at home from Cleveland should tell you they are in a really sorry state right now. Last night saw them go down for a fourth straight time, 113-102 here at home against Charlotte. On the bright side, the Thunder did not give up more than 130 points, which is something they’d done each of the three previous games. If you wanted to say these are the two worst teams in the league right now, we will not disagree. But we did tell you to take Cleveland in their last games and they did win 125-101 as nine-point underdogs in San Antonio on Sunday. The Cavaliers had lost their previous five games while never scoring more than 101. Given OKC’s recent defensive issues, we project the Cavs to have another high scoring effort tonight. But we also worry about their defense. They let Oklahoma City shoot 54% last month in a 117-101 loss. This is a low total and in the Thunder’s previous 11 games without rest, the average number of total points per game scored is 226.2. The Over has hit in 9 of the last 11 Thunder home games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-08-21 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The East is probably the NHL’s deepest division as it has five good teams. As it presently stands, the Rangers would be the odd team out come playoff time. They are five points back of the fourth place Bruins. So tonight is a big game as they face third place Pittsburgh, who is nine points above the Blueshirts, but has roughly the same goal differential. The Rangers certainly are hoping for a repeat of Monday when they beat the Penguins 8-4 here at Madison Square Garden. The Penguins, if you can believe it, have allowed 15 goals the last two games. But they’ve also scored a total of 13 in the last three, never scoring fewer than four in any game. In only one of the previous seven games have the Pens failed to score four or more goals. So it’s very reasonable to expect another high scoring game tonight. Plus, over the L11 games, the Rangers are 8-3-2 and have THREE games with EIGHT or more goals! (This isn’t your father’s NHL, we guess). The Over is 5-0 in the Rangers last five home games. Pittsburgh is 14-3 Over when they allowed five or more goals their last game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-08-21 | Royals v. White Sox -153 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHI WHITE SOX The White Sox, who have high hopes for 2021, enter this game with a 3-4 record. They went down in defeat Wednesday, losing to the Seattle Mariners by a score of 8-4. But they did win the first two games of that particular series. This is their home opener and it comes against a Royals team they absolutely dominated last year. Chicago was 9-1 in head to head meetings with KC in 2020 with four of those wins coming by four runs or greater. The Royals’ bats came out swinging in 2021, delivering a total of 25 runs the first two games. But they’ve been quiet since with just eight runs scored in the last three games. Like Chicago, Wednesday brought an “L” for Kansas City as they fell 4-2 to Cleveland. Today’s starter is Brad Keller and when you look at how he pitched on Opening Day, it’s tough to make a case for KC today. The Rangers tagged Keller for six runs in 1 ⅓ innings. The offense bailed him out, but we don’t think they’ll do so here facing Lance Lynn, who allowed only two unearned runs in his first start. He also had six strikeouts vs. zero walks. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
|||||||
04-07-21 | Grizzlies v. Hawks -2 | Top | 131-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA We rode the Hawks to an easy 123-106 win over New Orleans last night and will stick with them again tonight as they host Memphis in a matchup where both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Grizzlies were also double digit winners Tuesday, although they had to go on the road to defeat 124-112. Winning back to back nights on the road is pretty tough in this league. The Grizzlies know this all too well as they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread when playing for a second straight night on the road. Those three losses have come by an average of 19 points/game. They’ve lost by 16 at Utah (3/27), 23 at Phoenix (3/15) and, 18 at Indiana (2/2). Twice they were coming in off a win. It doesn’t help them that Atlanta has won and covered seven consecutive home games, a streak that predates the All-Star Break. The Hawks have moved into 4th place in the Eastern Conference with a 4-0 (both SU/ATS) April where they’ve averaged 125 points/game. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS in April, but that inability to win back to back road games looms large in handicapping this one. The Hawks took the first meeting 122-112 in Memphis back in December. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
04-07-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO There’s still roughly 30 percent of the NHL regular season left to be played, but it’s a fair statement to say we pretty much know who the four playoff teams will be from the all-Canadian North Division. An eight-point gap exists between 4th and 5th place and looking at the goal differentials of the top four vs. the bottom three, that gap is likely to get even wider. Toronto leads the division with 55 points, six more than any other team. Montreal is 4th with 43 points, but they actually have four games in hand compared to the top three teas. The Habs are in Toronto tonight, looking to close the distance, but we don’t see that happening. Brendan Gallagher, one of their top goal scorers is out with a fractured thumb, and also injured is goalie Carey Price. Those are significant absences for a key game such as this. Given Gallagher left in the first period and Price was clearly hobbled, it was somewhat of a miracle that the Canadiens were able to rally back from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Edmonton in overtime Monday. But they won’t be as lucky here as Toronto is 7-0-1 its last eight games and coming off a 4-0 road trip. The Leafs are 3-1 against Montreal this season. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
04-07-21 | Blue Jays -183 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TORONTO Toronto goes for its second series win of the young season Wednesday afternoon. After taking two of three from the Yankees, the Blue Jays won the series opener 6-2 here in Arlington. But they lost yesterday by a score of 7-4. It was the most runs allowed by Toronto pitching in a game so far in 2021. Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has never faced Texas, should get them back on track this afternoon. Ryu allowed just two runs and four hits in 5 ⅓ in his first start. While he did not factor into the decision, the Jays won that game 3-2 in 10 innings. This is a team that expects to contend for a playoff berth and possibly win the division. The Rangers, on the other hand, are probably going to finish last over in the AL West. It was an ugly first outing for today’s starter Kyle Gibson. He was handed a 5-0 lead on Opening Day in Kansas City, but immediately gave it back as he gave up five runs after four hits and three walks. He retired just one batter. How can you not want to play against that? The Rangers have yet to have back to back big games at the plate this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Adding a designated hitter to the Dodgers’ already potent lineup just seems cruel, especially if you’re the 0-5 A’s, who have given up eight or more runs in every game. They gave up a season-high 10 to the Dodgers in last night’s series opener. That was the second time in the last four games LA scored 10 or more runs. They had seven runs on the board through three innings last night. Chris Bassitt has the unenviable task of starting against the Dodgers tonight. While he pitched well in the Spring and on Opening Day, he never faced a lineup quite like this one. Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers and while you may think that means a long day for the Oakland hitters, guess again as they got him for nine runs in a Spring Training game. Kershaw also allowed six runs and 10 hits in his first start of 2021 and that was without giving up a home run. Look for the bevy of runs scored in A’s games to continue on Tuesday. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-06-21 | Pelicans v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA These young Hawks are starting to spread their wings as they’ve won three straight, moving them into a fourth place tie with Miami in the East. Each of the three wins have seen Atlanta cover the spread. Only one of the three was a blowout, but it happened to be against the team they’ll face again tonight. New Orleans was without four starters for that game and both Zion Willamson/Brandon Ingram are listed as questionable for tonight’s rematch. We did take the Pelicans on Sunday, when they got Lonzo Ball and Steven Adams back, but they were also facing a horrible Houston team. The Pelicans don’t defend well (28th in points allowed per possession) and are 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with Atlanta. The Hawks have injuries too, but showed off their depth in Sunday’s 117-111 win over Golden State where they were +36 in bench scoring. Trae Young didn’t even play in the blowout win over these Pelicans last week. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS their last six home games. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
04-06-21 | Lightning -197 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -197 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 6* on TAMPA BAY Despite being a huge -395 favorite on the money line, Tampa Bay lost 5-1 to Detroit on Sunday. It was the Lightning’s fourth loss in the last six games and the second as a big favorite. This slide coincides with a surge from Florida (who is on a 6-game win streak) and the Lightning now find themselves in second place in the division (two points back). We mentioned earlier that Sunday was the second loss as a big favorite for the ‘Ning in recent times. The other was March 30th, at home vs. Columbus. They immediately bounced back from that defeat by beating the Blue Jackets 3-2 the next game. Tonight they are in Columbus where the Jackets are reeling. That upset win on March 30th marks the only time C-bus has gotten the two points in their last eight games. Six of the last seven losses have been in regulation with three of those coming by three goals. They were blanked 3-0 by Florida on Sunday, which was their third loss in a row in the Sunshine State. That was the 4th time they’ve been shut out in the past 20 games. The Jackets are now just as close to last place as they are 4th place. They don’t have the necessary firepower to beat Tampa again. The Lightning are one of the top three scoring teams in the league. They’re 52-11 SU after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
|||||||
04-06-21 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER St. Louis was 4-1 winner in Monday’s series opener. That victory squared their season record away at 2-2. Miami is 1-3 and save for a 12-run effort on Sunday, they haven’t done a whole lot of scoring. The other three games have seen them score a total of five runs and four of those were in one game. Let’s not forget that last year’s playoff run ended with back to back shutout losses. So we’ve got little confidence in the Marlins lineup heading into Tuesday and really the same is true for the Cardinals. While the Redbirds’ first three games all went Over, they didn’t have a ton of hits. They’ve scored 22 runs in four games, but the fact they have only 27 hits (7 or fewer each of the L3 games) makes that seem a bit fortuitous. Sandy Alcantara will be the starter for Miami on Tuesday. He threw six shutout innings on Opening Day and allowed only two hits. The Marlins lost that game 1-0. St. Louis will send John Gant to the bump. Since he’s been used as a reliever the past two seasons, Gant won’t be in there for too long. But regardless, Miami hasn’t shown they are any real threat at the plate. The Under is 14-3 in the Marlins’ last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. They’ve scored a total of one run in the two games this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR We’ve ridden Baylor each of the last three rounds. They were our top Sweet 16 side (beat Villanova 62-51 as 7.5-point favorites), our top Elite 8 side (beat Arkansas 81-72 as 7.5-point favorites), then were our *10* NCAA GAME OF THE YEAR when they walloped Houston 78-59 (as 5-point favorites) in Saturday’s Final Four. Now the Bears are underdogs for the first time all season as they play undefeated Gonzaga for the National Championship. We saw Saturday that the Zags are not infallible. While UCLA may not have been your “normal 11-seed,” Gonzaga needed OT and an all-time buzzer beater to get by. This despite shooting 58.7% for the game. Baylor has basically led start to finish in four of their five tournament games (‘Nova was the exception to that). They’ve lost only two games this season and both came shortly after a three-week pause due to COVID-19. They are over that now. The five tournament wins have been by an average of 15.2 points/game. While the Bears haven’t been underdogs in any game in 2020-21, they are 16-6 ATS L22 times in that role. Can they win this game? Absolutely. So we’ll take the points as Baylor is #1 in the country in three-point shooting and should also have their way inside the paint. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
|||||||
04-05-21 | Avalanche v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER With a four-game win streak, Colorado has overtaken Vegas for first place in the West Division. Sitting in third, six points back of the Avalanche, is Minnesota. The Wild just helped out the Avs (and themselves) by winning in Vegas two straight times. They certainly hope “what happens in Vegas” doesn’t stay there as this is a golden opportunity for them to catch up to the Avs. But it will not be easy keeping the Avs in check. Colorado has scored a total of 19 goals during its win streak, an average of nearly 5.0 per game. They are 12-0-2 in their last 14 games and have scored 62 times in that stretch, an average of basically 4.5 goals per game. It was 6-0 (Avs) the last time these teams played and 5-1 (Avs) the time before that. The Avs had 85 shots on goal in those two games. This will be the seventh meeting of the year and the Over is 5-1 in the first six with all but the one Under seeing six or more total goals scored. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-05-21 | Cavs +9.5 v. Spurs | Top | 125-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland is a bit of a “tough sell” right now with five straight losses coming into tonight. Four of those losses have been by at least 12 points. Not a ton of offense to speak of either as they’ve gone seven games in a row without scoring more than 105. But at least they got into triple digits on Saturday (scored 101) after failing to do so each of the previous four games. The Cavs are in San Antonio tonight and we think this is a game that they can cover. Why? Well, the Spurs have dropped seven of their last nine games. They are coming off back to back losses in overtime, first to Atlanta (a 2OT game) and then to Indiana. Both losses came in San Antonio. This could end up being the most points the Spurs end up laying in any game all season. We think it’s too many. They are 6-10 ATS as home favorites and have been outscored in those games. They were favored in each of the last two games, including by 7 against Indiana, who was missing four key players and still found a way to score 139. That was the fourth time in the last seven games, all at home, that the Spurs gave up 132 points. Cleveland has a chance to win here. Take the points. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
|||||||
04-05-21 | Pirates v. Reds -143 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This isa 10* on CINCINNATI To put it mildly, the Pirates are not going to be good this year. So why not take advantage of some “early season pricing” and back the Reds here? Cincy opened with St. Louis. After losing the season opener, they bounced back to win two straight and it was 12-1 on Sunday. Run scoring was not an issue in that first series as the Reds put 27 on the board in the three games. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff performed adequately in its first series, but the team still dropped two of three to the Cubs. That probably speaks to how poor the offense is going to be in 2021. Making matters more depressing is that Ke’Bryan Hayes, thought to be the next star of the franchise, is already on the 10-day DL. JT Brubaker starts today for the Bucs. He gave up four home runs in Spring Training, not good considering the Reds hit six HRs in the St. Louis series. Jose De Leon gets the nod for the home team. He actually hasn’t started a MLB game in almost five years (he’s been a reliever), but if there was ever a time to make your return to a starting role it would be against the Pirates, who have scored only nine runs so far. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
|||||||
04-04-21 | Pelicans -5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NO We can’t believe this line is so low. Houston has lost 25 of its last 27 games. Now we know New Orleans, coming off back to back losses, has major injury concerns right now. Three starters, one of them Zion Williamson, missed both games of the back to back against Atlanta and Orlando. But no matter who is in the starting five Sunday night, we believe the Pelicans will be able to easily defeat the Rockets. For the record, Williamson is listed as questionable as is Brandon Ingram. Houston has not even been close in most of these losses. The last three have all been by 10 or more, meaning 15 of their last 19 games have resulted in a double digit defeat. The Rockets are 4-19 ATS at home this season. Still in the playoff race, New Orleans can’t afford to lose this game. We think they’ll pull the necessary pieces together to get the comfortable ‘W.’ Lay the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
04-04-21 | Capitals -162 v. Devils | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Currently in a three-way battle for first place in the East Division, the Capitals go for a two-game sweep in New Jersey on Sunday. They won 2-1 in overtime here on Friday, ending a two-game losing streak. The Islanders also won yesterday (and we had them!) so the Caps & Isles are tied with 52 points. Pittsburgh is right behind with 50. So this is a game Washington really can’t afford to lose. Good thing then that they haven’t lost to the Devils this season. Friday’s win gives them a perfect 7-0 record against their division rival and today is the final meeting of the season. They allowed only 23 shots in the last game, which is a positive sign after they allowed eight goals to the Islanders in the previous game. That was the most goals allowed by the Caps in any game in over two years. New Jersey has scored 1 or 0 goals in three of the last four games. So they’re not much of a threat offensively. In the seven losses to Washington this season, NJ has allowed four or more goals five times. It’s not just this season that has seen the Capitals dominate the Devils. They have won 25 of the previous 30 meetings. Against all opponents, they are on a 14-2 run when favored. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
04-04-21 | Rangers v. Royals -166 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -166 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Since falling behind 5-0 in the first inning on Opening Day, the Royals have looked absolutely dominant, particularly at the plate. They’ve scored a total of 25 runs in two games against the Rangers and are now 2-0. They go for the sweep on Sunday with Brady Singer on the mound. Singer finished last season strong, winning three of his last four starts. That carried over into the Spring where he was 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in four starts. The last one saw him give up only two hits to Cleveland in eight innings and only one of those two hits made it out of the infield. Though Texas had a big day at the plate Opening Day, their bats made far less noise yesterday with four runs on six hits. Rangers’ starter Jordan Lyles has to contend with a Royals lineup that has 28 hits in the two games. While KC has been scoring in clusters, they should be able to consistently produce here vs. Lyles, who went 1-6 last season with a 1.56 WHIP. Lyles will be working in “tandem” with either Dane Dunning or Taylor Hearn. This speaks to the lack of depth in the Rangers’ rotation right now, which has been hit hard already and figures to have a rough 2021. Going back to the end of last season, the Royals are 9-0 L9 home games when facing a right-handed starter. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
|||||||
04-03-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Kings | Top | 129-128 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee looked darn impressive last night in their decisive 127-109 win in Portland. Giannis Antetokounmpo, in particular, shined. He shot 85% and scored 47 points. From inside the 3-point arc, Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18, tying a record set by Wilt Chamberlain. The Bucks were up by 24 in the third quarter and thus were able to coast the rest of the way. That’s important when playing the second night of a back to back like they are here. Sacramento should not provide much resistance. The Kings allow the most points per possession in the league, so it should be another big offensive night from “The Greek Freak” and company. The Bucks beat the Kings by 13 in late February, 128-115 and in doing so put up 70 points by halftime. It should be mentioned that Sacramento is also in the second night of a back to back here. Only they lost at home to the Lakers last night by 21! That’s just awful when you consider LA doesn’t have either LeBron James or Anthony Davis right now. The Bucks have the best point differential among Eastern Conference teams and third best overall. We like them to roll to a 10th straight victory over the Kings, who are 0-6 ATS this season coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Gonzaga looks unstoppable as they go for the 1st National Championship in program history. They are massive favorites against UCLA Saturday as you just don’t see a double digit spread in the Final Four very often. But it’s the total that has our attention in this National Semifinal. While both teams are 3-1 Under their last four games, this has the potential to be a pretty high-scoring affair. We need not remind you that Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 91.6 points/game. They have scored at least 83 in all four Tournament games. This number will likely end up closing as the third lowest total for any Gonzaga game this season. UCLA being off such a low-scoring game (they beat Michigan 51-49 in the Elite Eight) is a big reason for that. But the Bruins scored plenty in the first four Tourney games (remember they were in the First Four). Yes, two of those games went to OT. But they still hit 65 in regulation in all of them and twice hit 73. Those kinds of numbers are reasonable for tonight and should they get there, this game will easily go Over. Gonzaga likes to play fast and UCLA is 5-1 Over this season when the total is 140 to 149.5. Gonzaga is shooting almost 55% from the field and only one of their last 11 games saw a fewer number of total points than this total. Their games average 160.1 total points. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-03-21 | Flyers v. Islanders -171 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the ISLANDERS Not sure what’s more embarrassing for the Flyers. That 9-0 loss to the Rangers on St. Patrick’s Day or the fact they just became the first team to lose to the Sabres since Feb 23. The 6-1 loss in Buffalo on Wednesday was truly humiliating as the Sabres had lost 18 straight games before that, the NHL’s longest losing streak in 17 years. Even though the Flyers are technically still in playoff contention (three points out of fourth place), it’s probably time to sell on them “for good.” March was an unmitigated disaster as they gave up 75 goals, the most for any month in franchise history. There were four games that they lost by at least five goals. Now they face the Islanders, who are coming off an 8-goal game of their own. Could things possibly get WORSE for the Flyers? Probably as the Isles are involved in a three-team race for first in the East and aren’t about to let a golden opportunity for two points slip through the cracks. New York is among the league leaders in fewest goals allowed, so they have a huge edge. They are 11-2 L13 games vs. teams that have a losing record and beat the Flyers the last two times they’ve faced them - 6-1 and 2-1. Play on NY ISLANDERS AAA |
|||||||
04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Houston did not defeat a single team seeded higher than 10th in its region. They faced 15-seed Cleveland State first, whom they destroyed, but have had close calls with Rutgers and Oregon State, who were seeded 10th and 12th respectively. In between they did easily beat 11-seed Syracuse. Still, that’s an amazingly easy run of opponents. Now they face Baylor, who has been considered the second best team in America most of this College Basketball season. Baylor has won all four NCAA Tournament games by at least nine points. They had a big lead on Arkansas in the Elite Eight. Really, the only close call was vs. Villanova. The Bears are a far more dynamic offensive team than anybody Houston has previously faced, not just in the Tournament but the whole season. The Cougars have faced just one top 30 team all year (Texas Tech) and that was back in November. The fact Baylor leads the country in three-point shooting percentage is key. With Houston, it’s a concern that they have not shot better than 39% in any of the last three games. Unlike when they faced those past opponents, it will take a good number of points for Houston to cover here. We don’t think they’re up to it. It seems destined that we’re headed for a Gonzaga vs. Baylor final and we will lay the points here with a team that has lost only two games all season, despite facing significantly better competition than Houston. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
|||||||
04-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs -164 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS The Cubs dropped their season opener here at Wrigley Field on Thursday, losing 5-3. That’s an embarrassing loss considering how bad the Pirates are projected to be in 2021. Friday was an off day and we anticipate the Cubs will come out swinging on Saturday. Literally. Seven Pirates pitchers combined to hold them to two hits on Opening Day. But the Bucs aren’t going to have many games like that this year. They finished 19-41 last season, which would be an 111-loss pace for a 162 game season. They have the lowest projected win total in MLB. They also have the lowest payroll in the National League. Tyler Anderson will start for them today. He comes over from San Francisco and is one of the few free agents the team actually signed. It’s likely he won’t be asked to go long, but we don’t think a bullpen that looks shaky on paper will be as effective as it was Thursday. For the Cubs, starter Jake Arrieta is in his second tour of duty. He’s always enjoyed facing Pittsburgh in the past (12-6 record, 2.93 ERA in 23 career starts) and should do well here. This is all about fading the worst team in baseball. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
|||||||
04-02-21 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 219 | Top | 103-140 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Phoenix just keeps on winning. They’ve won four in a row and six of the last seven games. Their last game was a 121-116 win against Chicago, which easily went Over the total. Now they are set to face Oklahoma City, which should be an easy win. The Thunder also won their last game, but other than Houston, Minnesota and Toronto - all of whom are terrible - they haven’t beaten anybody in the last two weeks. Expect the Suns to score a lot tonight as they are 10-3 Over when off three or more consecutive wins. A big key here is Devin Booker. Since returning to the lineup, the Suns are 25-6. Without Booker, they lost to the Thunder 102-97 in late January. Booker has averaged 26.8 points on better than 50% shooting since returning and just went for 45 against the Bulls on Wednesday. The Thunder will need to score some here as well and with the Suns allowing 110 or more in three of the last five games, they should. The Over is 5-2 the last seven times Oklahoma City has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-02-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Alphabetically, these are the first two on the list of NHL teams. But that’s about all Anaheim is first in. The Ducks sit last in the West Division with 28 points and they have a -40 goal differential. To put that GD in some perspective, a Buffalo team that is considered the embarrassment of the sport has a -47 GD. Arizona is just hoping to get that fourth playoff spot the division has to offer. They are one point behind St. Louis in the race for it. Certainly hurting their chances was their most recent effort where they allowed NINE goals in a humiliating loss to Colorado. Over the Coyotes last six games, the Over has cashed five times. The good news, from their perspective, is they’ve scored at least three goals in five of those games. Three times they’ve scored five goals. Anaheim just gave up five goals in its last game, also against Colorado, and was one of the teams to recently give up five to Arizona. Playing each other instead of the Avalanche gives the teams a better shot at winning. No matter who comes out on top, we anticipate a high-scoring affair. The Over is 9-4 for the ‘Yotes if they allowed four or more goals last time out. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -128 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The Astros gave us a gift on Opening Day as they scored five times across the final two frames to send the game Over. We had the Over, which certainly wasn’t looking good when the game was 1-0 after five innings. Today we look for the A’s to settle the score. The A’s have payback on the mind not just from last night, but for the ALDS in October when they were eliminated in a 3-1 series by the Astros. But the regular season last year really saw the A’s have Houston’s number as they took 7 of 10 head to head meetings and the three losses were all seven-inning games. Can’t see Oakland dropping two straight at home to open the season. Houston’s starter for today is Cristian Javier, who the A’s beat twice last year in the regular season. Javier’s ERA in those two starts was 7.88 Jesus Luzardo goes to the mound for the home team and we like him, especially for his 2.87 ERA against Houston in three previous regular season turns. Oakland is 44-18 off a loss. Houston is 3-13 after scoring 5 or more runs last game. PLAY ON OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
04-01-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER These were the two playoff teams from the American League West a season ago. Oakland took home the pennant with a 36-24 WL record. But Houston was the one who made it to the ALCS, even though they had a sub-.500 regular season record. That postseason run included a 3-1 series win over the A’s in the LDS. That was strange as Oakland really dominated the regular season series, winning 7 of 10 with all three losses coming in seven inning games. We look for Opening Day to be a relatively high-scoring affair. Three of those four playoff games saw 15 or more total runs scored. Houston is going to have a bounce back year at the plate. Two years ago, they were tops in MLB in batting average, slugging and OPS. Zack Greinke faced Oakland three three times last year. He allowed four runs in two of those starts. The A’s will counter with Bassitt, who allowed two home runs in last year’s LDS, same as Greinke did in his start that series. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
04-01-21 | Hurricanes -158 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CAROLINA There is a significant gap after the top three in the NHL’s Central Division. Tampa Bay, Florida and Carolina have a major cushion over the rest of the field and we don’t see that shrinking any time soon. Of course, someone will have to be the 4th playoff team. That could be Chicago, who is currently tied for fourth with 39 points, 10 fewer than the Hurricanes. But they won’t be cutting into that deficit here. The ‘Canes weren’t happy with Tuesday’s 2-1 loss in the Windy City and are now out for revenge. They are 9-4 in all revenge situations in the 2020-21 season. The Blackhawks won back to back games only one time in March. Even though they won Tuesday, they were outshot 2:1 (32-16) and also outnumber 41-23 on faceoffs. Carolina is 8-1 the last nine times they’ve been off a game where they allowed two or fewer goals. Should be an easy bounce back game. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
04-01-21 | 76ers -8 v. Cavs | Top | 114-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILLY Philadelphia has dropped two in a row, but they’ve got an ideal matchup here that should allow them to bounce back in a major way. Cleveland is the opposition as the Sixers wrap up a six-game road trip, which they began with three straight wins. The losses were to the Clippers and Nuggets and there is no shame losing to those teams, especially on the road. Cleveland has the worst point differential in the league, so there would be a lot of shame if the Sixers were to lose tonight. Fortunately, we know the Cavaliers are 7-19 against the spread against winning teams. They are also 0-4 ATS after being held to 85 points or less and are coming off a horrible 114-75 loss at Utah. That was the Cavs’ third straight loss and they were held under 100 points in all of them. The clincher here is that Philly is actually 0-2 vs. Cleveland this season, so they are going to be out for revenge. Having fallen behind Brooklyn in the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, the 76ers will have no mercy for their opponents tonight. They improve to 5-0-1 ATS their last six games as a road favorite. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
|||||||
04-01-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 Like everyone else, we favor the Dodgers to repeat as World Series Champions. When you factor in their postseason, they outscored their opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game last season. Only three Yankees teams from the 20’s and 30’s ever produced a better per game run differential over the course of a season. Now that was only 78 games for the Dodgers last year, but they look even stronger this year and could set the National League record for single season wins. Their season win total of 104.5 is tied with the ‘99 Yankees for the highest of the past 30 years. Colorado is not going to challenge the Dodgers. Not today. Not this season. They could finish some 40 games back when the regular season is over. This is a total mismatch as Clayton Kershaw makes his 11th consecutive Opening Day start. Disregard Kershaw’s poor Spring Training; that’s happened before and it didn’t carry over to the regular season. His 24 wins against the Rockies are his most vs. any team and he’s 11-5 all-time at Coors Field. The Rockies traded away Nolen Arenado and Brendan Rodgers is out with a hamstring injury. German Marquez can not possibly carry his team to victory here and the home team will lose by at least two runs. Play on LA DODGERS (-1.5) AAA |
|||||||
03-31-21 | Wild -154 v. Sharks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -154 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Minnesota lost in a shootout, 4-3, here in San Jose on Monday. After tonight, they head to Vegas for two games, which will be a challenge. So they better be focused on gaining some revenge tonight. To be clear, all is not lost in the Twin Cities. The Wild currently sit in third place in the West and there’s a fairly comfortable gap between them and fourth place St. Louis. Do we think they are as good as the top two teams in the division, Vegas and Colorado? No. But they are better than the Sharks. The Wild did win two of this season’s first three meetings with San Jose. One was by a score of 6-2 here in San Jose. Before losing Monday, the Wild had won three straight times. San Jose had lost six of eight and was coming off a shutout loss in Arizona. Yes, we took the Sharks Monday. But as noted in that writeup, the Wild hadn’t played in four days and were also off a very fortunate win. They’ll be determined to show their superiority tonight and we are confident they get the two points. San Jose is just 3-11 off a win. Minnesota is 16-5 the last 21 games as a favorite. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
03-31-21 | Kings +2.5 v. Spurs | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO These teams just played Monday. We had the Kings, who won “going away,” 132-115 as 2.5-point underdogs. That was their fifth straight win, a season-high. This win streak has also seen the Kings go 4-1 against the spread. We are presented with the same spread tonight and won’t be deviating from the previous script. San Antonio has certainly struggled of late. They’ve lost five of six overall and are just 12-17 vs. the Western Conference this season. (The only win in the last six games was against Chicago). During its five game win streak, Sacramento is averaging 120.4 points/game while giving up only 109.0. They’ve gone over 130 in two of the previous three, their two highest scoring games of the season.. Every starter scored at least 14 on Monday. When the Kings are off an upset win as an underdog (as they are here), there tends to be a no letdown as they’ve gone 8-4 ATS the next game. The Spurs have a losing SU record at home (11-14) this season and going back further, they have covered just 12 of 40 as home favorites. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
|||||||
03-31-21 | Knicks v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Defense hasn’t been an issue for the Knicks this season as they allow the fewest number of points per game in the league. But offense was a problem on Monday as they managed only 88 points in a home loss to the Heat. While it would be easy to point the finger at the Mitchell Robinson injury, he only averages 8.3 points. The team needs to start shooting the basketball better as they’ve finished with a 43.2 FG% or worse in five of their last six games. Fortunately for them, they are in Minnesota tonight where they’ll find one of the league’s worst defensive teams. The Timberwolves allow 117.1 points/game and there has been only one time in the L10 games where they didn’t allow at least 112. That one time was against Houston, who can’t hit water from a boat right now. Minnesota has scored exactly 107 points in three straight games, which isn’t a lot, but they did make 14 threes against Brooklyn Monday night. Though that game did stay Under, the Over is 9-4 the past 13 times the T’wolves have been underdogs. The Knicks did give up a 39-point quarter to the Heat. We think both of these teams are due for a big night offensively. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
03-30-21 | Hawks v. Suns -7 | Top | 110-117 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX The Hawks very well may be tiring as they’re about to play their sixth straight game on the road. After tonight, they’ve got two more before the trip ends. They’ve lost three of last three four and Monday’s 126-102 loss in Denver was the worst showing yet. We don’t like Atlanta’s chances here as they take on a Phoenix team that has been playing as well as any in the league over the last month or so. The Suns have lost only three times this month and are off a 3-1 road trip where the only loss was by one point. Defensively, they’ve been locked in. They just held Charlotte to 97 points in an overtime win on Sunday. Before that, they held Toronto to 100 points. The Suns are better at both ends of the floor, are at home and the Hawks are road-weary. We see no reason why NOT to lay the points. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
|||||||
03-30-21 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Nashville is surging right now as they’ve won five straight and seven of their last eight. The one loss was 2-0 at Florida on March 20th. In six of the seven victories, they’ve allowed two goals or fewer. It shouldn’t be shocking then to find out the Under is on a 6-2 run in Predators games. One of those two Overs was against the Stars, a 4-3 victory, but that was in Dallas. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times the Stars have had to play here in Music City. All four head to head meetings between these teams this season took place in “Big D.” The Stars are not playing particularly well of late, having dropped 8 of their last 11. But if a certain pattern holds, they are in for a win tonight. The last three times they have been off two straight losses, they’ve won the next game. They have lost their last two games coming into Tuesday. They lost 4-1 and 4-3 at home to Florida, but we believe they’ll shore things up defensively in this game. Nashville has been playing without Filip Forsberg, who leads the team in both goals and points. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Stars previous eight road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga OVER 153 | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Much has been made of USC’s defense in this Tournament. The Trojans have allowed 58.3 points per game and none of the three teams they’ve faced have been able to shoot better than 37.7 percent. But none of those teams were Gonzaga. The Bulldogs lead the country in scoring at 91.8 points per game and have scored 98, 87 and 83 in their three Tournament games. They shot almost 60 percent from the field against Creighton in the Sweet 16 win. The only concern here for Gonzaga is that they better shoot well again because USC has also been scoring at a high rate. The last two games have seen the Trojans make 57% of their shots and that includes 21 of 35 on three-pointers! So this should be quite the high scoring game in the Elite 8 as both teams should score at least 80. The Over is 39-17 in Gonzaga’s last 56 games and they are an astronomical 55% overall this year! USC is 6-3 Over after a game where they scored 80 or more points. Gonzaga likes to play fast and as a result, this one goes Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Wild v. Sharks +140 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 140 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN JOSE San Jose is coming off back to back road losses in Arizona, the second of which saw them shut out 4-0. They’ll return home to face a Minnesota team that beat them 6-2 on February 22nd and has won three in a row overall. The Wild were shutout winners on Thursday thanks to 37 saves from goalie Cam Talbot. They scored twice despite only 11 shots on goal, which is a minor miracle. When a team is winning, they don’t want time off, so look for the three days of rest to work against the Wild in this one. They lost 4-0 the only other time this season they played with this much rest. It was a very fortunate win on Thursday. San Jose is now back home for their next nine games and should be really motivated for this one. They won their last two home games, both against the Kings last week. Minnesota has not won a road game in 24 days. Play on SAN JOSE AAA |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Two of the teams Arkansas has beaten to get here were seeded 14 or lower. That’s quite atypical for a team in the Elite 8. In fact, it’s happened only one other time in the Tournament’s history (Florida in 2013). Furthermore, the Razorbacks have won by the narrowest of margins the last two games, beating Texas Tech 68-66 and Oral Roberts 72-70. They trailed almost the whole way against Oral Roberts (a 15-seed) before Davonte Davis made the game-winner in the final three seconds. We anticipate the Hogs having lots of trouble here against a Baylor team that leads the country in three-point shooting. Arkansas was lucky that Oral Roberts uncharacteristically struggled from deep. Baylor has had the harder path to get here, yet has looked more impressive in wins over Wisconsin and Villanova. We used them as our top Sweet 16 selection and they rewarded us there. The Bears are the top three-point shooting team in the country, but were just 3 for 19 from behind the arc against ‘Nova. They should improve here as Arkansas is only 138th in 3-point defense. The last two teams Baylor faced liked to play at very slow tempos, very different from Arkansas, but the Bears still are averaging 72.3 points per game in the Tournament. Baylor is the better team here and should send Arkansas packing quite easily. The Razorbacks won’t have the rebounding edge they enjoyed vs. Oral Roberts. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Kings +2.5 v. Spurs | Top | 132-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO Sacramento looks for a season-high fifth straight win tonight as they invade San Antonio. The Spurs had LOST four in a row before they easily defeated the Bulls on Saturday night. A huge first half (led by 26 at the break) was critical to San Antonio’s success there. We see no such fast start taking place tonight. The Spurs are far too inconsistent to be counted on to play well in back to back games. They actually have a losing record at home. The Kings are 6-1 since St. Patrick’s Day, which has them thinking playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Desperate to end the NBA’s longest postseason drought, we don’t see this team throwing in the towel any time soon. While three of their last six wins have been by two points, we don’t care how many the underdog wins by tonight. Grab the points. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |