Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s East meets West in this battle of division leaders. The Giants (97-52) have taken the first two games from the Braves (76-70) by scores of 6-5 and 2-0. The first game, which went to extra innings, saw us cash in on the home team. We noted that San Francisco has been far more consistent (they have the best record in all of baseball!) and far more profitable (now +40.0 units). As they go for the sweep Sunday, we’re going to play the Under this time. As already noted, Atlanta failed to score last night. That’s not uncharacteristic for Giants’ opponents. The SF pitching staff has allowed the third fewest number of runs in the majors. Anthony DeSclafani will start on Sunday. The Under is 3-0 in his previous three starts and his ERA is 2.12 in that time (his WHIP is 1.00). The Under is also 17-7 the last 24 times the Giants have been off a game where they were held to two runs or less. Atlanta only gives up 3.9 runs/game when on the road. They held the Giants to five hits Saturday. Max Fried has been on fire in the second half as he’s had a quality start in eight of his last nine appearances, including one complete game. They are 10-2 L12 road games. All signs point to this being a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-19-21 | Bills -180 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* on BUF MONEYLINE Buffalo suffered one of the more surprising losses in Week 1, falling 23-16 at home to Pittsburgh. That’s a good defense they were up against so there’s no reason to panic … yet. But an 0-2 start is something that the Bills, one of the Super Bowl favorites, desperately want to avoid. Things looked good early last week as the Bills took a 10-0 lead to halftime. But sloppy mistakes, such as having a punt blocked and returned for a TD, keyed the Steelers’ turnaround. Despite a career-high 51 pass attempts, Josh Allen didn’t have his best game. But he’s had some good ones in the past against the team he faces in Week 2. In six career games vs. the Dolphins, Allen is 5-1 with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s thrown for 1,557 yards, averaging 8.7 per attempt and had four games with three or more touchdown passes. The Bills have won the previous five meetings and scored 31 or more every time on this Miami defense. While you’ve got to respect Miami’s ATS record as a dog under Brian Flores, we can’t see Buffalo losing this game nor can we see the Dolphins starting the year with back to back upsets inside the division. So we’ll take the safer, moneyline route in this AFC East matchup. The Dolphins won’t be able to generate the same kind of pressure on Allen that the Steelers did. Allen is 11-4-1 ATS on the road in his career. We don’t need him to cover though, just to win. Play BUFFALO on the MONEYLINE AAA |
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09-19-21 | Rams -3.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA RAMS The Rams looked very impressive Sunday night when they beat the Bears 34-14 as a nine-point favorite. New QB Matt Stafford looked right at home in Sean McVay’s offense as the former Lion threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford could be in line for another 300-plus yard day this week, or at least close to that, when he faces a Colts secondary that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson. In sharp contrast to the Rams, Indy looked bad in a 28-16 opening week loss. Carson Wentz, not long removed from foot surgery, was a sitting duck behind an offensive line that played poorly. The Rams have Aaron Donald so Wentz is likely to be under duress yet again this week. Worth noting is that the Colts have never covered in four previous tries as a home underdog under Frank Reich. McVay is 8-3 straight up and against the spread as a favorite of -3.5 to -9.5. You’ve got to be careful not to overreact to one week, but the Rams looked really good in Week 1 and the Colts simply did not. The Rams have also been a really good road team during McVay’s time here, winning 23 of 34 games. They have been perfect in road openers the last four years averaging over 30 points/game. Lay it! Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns OVER 48 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 38 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We’ve got a recipe for a shootout on Sunday when the Texans and Browns meet in First Energy Stadium. Houston is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year but that did not stop them from putting up 37 points in an upset win over Jacksonville in Week 1. The offense averaged 6.0 yards per play with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Cleveland is expected to be one the better AFC teams but they lost 29-27 to Kansas City last Sunday, blowing a 22-10 halftime lead. Baker Mayfield and the offense were red hot in the first half, averaging more than nine yards per play. They finished with 8.2 yards per play, 457 total yards and really should have won that game. No interest in laying the double digit spread with the Browns here, however we are confident that they will put up a lot of points. So too will the Texans as the Browns defense couldn’t get off the field in the second half last week. Taylor isn’t Patrick Mahomes but he did throw for almost 300 yards last week. These teams’ Week 1 games averaged 60 points and we don’t need to get nearly that high to send this one Over. The Browns are 6-1 Over their last seven games on grass. Play OVER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Iowa State v. UNLV UNDER 52.5 | Top | 48-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a very disappointing start for Iowa State, who opened the year ranked in the top ten. First they could barely get by Northern Iowa, a FCS school. But that 16-10 WIN pales in comparison to the embarrassment suffered last weekend when they lost against Iowa, 27-17, this time in front of ESPN’s College Gameday. The offense failing to top 17 points in either game is a real concern in Ames. Now the Cyclones are still ranked 14th in the country and that’s a lot better than where the UNLV program is at right now. The Rebels have yet to win in eight tries during the Marcus Arroyo regime and this season got off to a bad start with a 35-33 loss to Eastern Washington. Losing to a FCS school was probably even more embarrassing than what happened last week as the Rebels could only muster 10 points and 155 yards against Arizona State. This has all the makings of a low scoring affair Saturday night. Depending on the upper body injury to Doug Brumfield, whose status you should monitor, it could be Tate Martell making his first collegiate start for UNLV this week. Martell has already transferred out of Ohio State and Miami FL, so maybe it’s time to admit that the former HS Player of the Year simply isn’t that good? Whomever starts under center must face an ISU defense that has permitted an average of only 15.3 points and 288.1 yards the last seven games. Excluding non-offensive scores, the Cyclones have allowed just 22 second half points in those seven games. We don’t think their offense will score all that much here either. So the call is simple. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -162 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto lost last night to Minnesota, 7-3. They’ve lost four in a row to the Twins going back to 2019. All four losses took place at home and they were outscored 27-4. However, last night aside, this Blue Jays team has been red hot. Winners of 16 of 20, they’ve gotten themselves into the thick of the Wild Card race. But they can’t let up now. Friday’s results leave them a game back of Boston and a half-game back of New York. Those are the teams currently occupying the two Wild Card spots. It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-65), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. But they were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and that is when they started to surge. Now only four teams have a better run differential on the season than the Jays. Minnesota (65-83) has been a big disappointment in 2021, down 27.5 units and in last place in the AL Central Division. They came into this series off two straight losses where they had only three hits in both games. Steven Matz is the starter today for Toronto. He wasn’t at his best on Sunday when he gave up five runs. But he didn’t need to be at his best as the team won that game 22-7. Before that, Matz had given up only six runs in his previous five starts. Though they beat one last night (Ryu), the Twins are still only 17-33 vs. lefties this year. Ober will start for Minnesota Saturday. He’s not made it past 4.3 innings in either of his last two starts. The Twins will not hit four home runs again like they did Friday. Toronto is 37-17 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-17-21 | Braves v. Giants -159 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Division leaders clash in San Francisco tonight as the 76-68 Braves take on the 95-52 Giants. It just so happens that both teams are off two straight losses. Atlanta missed out on a chance to end their losing streak when yesterday’s scheduled game vs. Colorado got rained out. San Francisco lost 7-4 to the Padres. But we like the Giants for several reasons tonight. One is that they’ve gotten the job done over a much longer stretch than has Atlanta. The Giants not only have the best won-loss record in MLB, they are also #1 in the betting world, up 38.0 units for the year. The Braves were below .500 entering August. They’ve taken advantage of a weak division. San Francisco has had to fend off the Dodgers, who have the second best record in the majors, all season long. Logan Webb is responsible for a significant chunk of the Giants’ profitability as he has an 18-4 team start record and is +15.6 units. The Giants have won his last seven starts overall and are 9-0 when he takes the mound at home. Webb has 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in those last seven starts and 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year. Because of the rain, Atlanta pushed back Ian Anderson’s start to today. The right-hander beat the Giants back on August 29th, however that was at home. Anderson has since given up three homers, six runs and 10 hits in eight innings. The Giants had won nine in a row before losing each of the last two days. We’ve got to back them with Webb pitching on Friday. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-17-21 | Padres v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on StL You’d have to go all the way back to May to find the last time the Padres (76-70) and Cardinals (76-69) hooked up. As you’ve seen by now, our 2021 Game of the Year took place in that series. It was in the middle of the three-game set and San Diego won 13-3, making us very happy. The Padres would go on to sweep that series, which was the start of a nine-game win streak. On June 25th, the team was 46-32 and feeling pretty good about itself. But things have changed. San Diego’s been a sub-.500 team these last three months and now trails the Cardinals - by a half game - for the NL’s second Wild Card spot. St. Louis is the hot team now as they’ve won seven of eight and five straight. They just swept the Mets in New York and had Thursday off. San Diego was in San Francisco yesterday. While they did win 7-4, this is just the third time in the last month they have won two straight games. It’s been more than a month since they won three straight. What makes this such a great spot to fade the Padres isn’t just revenge or recent form, but also they are being forced to start the recently signed Vince Velasquez due to the starting rotation being decimated by injuries. Velasquez was dropped by the Phillies in July after he allowed 11 runs over two terrible starts that spanned only 4.3 innings. Miles Mikolas is still working his way back from injury for St. Louis, but due to the spot being so favorable for the Cardinals we’ll look past his own recent struggles on the mound. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville OVER 66.5 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is not a great spot for the Louisville Cardinals. It is their third game in 12 days and they will be facing a UCF offense that is averaging 49.5 points and 622 yards per game. Both those numbers are second best in the country. Louisville has already allowed 43 points in a loss to Ole Miss this year. They only gave up three points last week, but that was against a FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. Given the schedule and the offense the Cardinals will face, they are very likely to give up a ton of points Friday night. Yes, UCF also played a FCS school last week. But they also put up almost 600 yards in the opener against Boise State. They put up 671 against Bethune-Cookman last week. This is a program that’s impressed us for years. They also apparently impressed the Big 12 Conference because that’s where the Golden Knights are headed, perhaps as early as 2023. QB Dillon Gabriel is 11th in the country in passing yards. Coach Gus Malzahn was a winner at Auburn and should get off to a 3-0 start in his first season here. Louisville gave up 569 yards to an Ole Miss offense that is pretty similar to what UCF runs. Rather than lay the points on the road, we’re more confident in this game going Over.. The Knights are 7-0 Over their previous seven September games. Louisville is 6-0 Over after its last six straight up victories. The Cardinals are certainly capable of scoring 30 or more points this week. They’ve scored 56 in the last six quarters. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-64), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. They were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and it was not long after that they began to surge. Winners in 16 of their last 19 games, Toronto finds itself in position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But they cannot afford to let up. There are five teams separated by only four games in contention for the two Wild Card spots. Boston is tied with Toronto and the Yankees are a half-game back. We don’t see there being any sort of letdown Friday as the Blue Jays face a Twins team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota (64-83) lost 12-3 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday as it’s been a very disappointing season where they’ve dropped 28.5 units. That has them as the second worst team to bet on in 2021. Only Arizona (-37.1 units) has been less profitable. We haven’t hesitated to lay the -1.5 on the run line with Toronto recently. The last time we did so, they won 22-7 against Baltimore! Only three teams have a better run differential for the year. We like Hyun-Jin Ryu being on the mound tonight as Minnesota is 16-33 vs. lefties. Michael Pineda has a 3-7 team start record for the Twins since June 1st. The Blue Jays have won 18 of the 22 games this season where they closed as a home favorite of -175 or higher. They’ll win this one by at least two runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER You’ve got a Giants team that’s 13-3-1 to the Under since the start of the 2020 season. That’s the highest Under percentage in the league over that time. They COULD be without starting running back Saquon Barkley Thursday night as it's a short week and Barkley is still recovering from ACL surgery. No matter as the Giants only scored 13 points with him in the lineup last week against Denver. And that was at home. The Giants were 31st in league last year, ahead of only the Jets, averaging 17.5 points/game. The Under is 8-0 the last eight times New York has been an underdog and 7-0 the last seven years (for them) in Week 2. It’s also 20-8 the past 28 times they’ve taken on Washington. The Football Team is already on its backup quarterback with Taylor Heinicke replacing the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke did play a decent amount in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. So Washington also failed to score 20 points in Week 1. That shouldn’t be surprising. Last season’s average total number of points scored in Washington games was 42.3. The only team whose games averaged fewer points was (you guessed it) the Giants at 39.8. So this total is not too low. The Under is 10-1 in Washington’s last 11 games on grass. They have a good defense. One more trend to close - the Giants are 6-0 Under coming off a double digit loss at home. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-16-21 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB -1.5 Before they lost two of three in Toronto, the Rays lost two of three in Detroit last weekend. The deciding game was a real back and forth affair as the Tigers rallied back from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning, then scored two runs to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. Things should go quite differently at Tropicana Field though. So much so that we are willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line with the Rays tonight. The Tigers just aren’t very good outside the Motor City. Their record as a road underdog of +175 to +250 is 9-17 this year and going back to 2019, the record is 21-47. Tampa Bay has captured 37 of its last 51 games as a favorite. (They were underdogs in all three games at Toronto). When they’re at home, the Rays are winning by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Key to that margin is holding visitors to 3.3 runs/game. It’ll be Louis Head as an opener, followed by Dietrich Enns pitching for the Rays tonight. Enns had a really impressive relief effort against the Tigers last weekend where he didn’t allow a single base runner for four innings. With him expected to pitch the bulk of today’s game, don’t look for the Tigers to score much. Most don’t realize this, but the Rays are the top offensive team in baseball. Tyler Alexander has a 9-2 team start record for Detroit including a 10-4 win over the Rays last weekend. But we see his luck running out here. His two starts in September have lasted a combined eight innings. The Rays have a huge edge in the bullpen in this matchup. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-15-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER By far, the most surprising result in Major League Baseball Tuesday night took place here in Arlington where the last place Rangers (54-90) defeated the first place Astros (84-60). It was only the fifth time in 17 tries that Texas was able to get a win in the season series. Keep in mind that Monday’s game ended up 15-1 in favor of Houston. We expect the road team to get things going at the plate again tonight as they face struggling Kohei Arihara. Arihara has made two starts since returning from the 60-day injured list. Both have gone Over. An issue with him going back to the start of the season is that Arihara almost never makes it through the fifth inning. Five of his last six starts have gone Over and he’s winless at home with a 9.22 ERA here. That’s not good. Especially since he’ll be facing an Astros team that puts up the second most runs per game in the majors (5.3 per game). So the road team will definitely score in this one. How about the home team? Well, Houston’s rotation has been besieged by injuries of late and today’s starter, Jose Urquidy, has not been immune. Like Arihara, Urquidy spent two months on the injured list. He hasn’t looked the same since, only lasting a total of 7.3 innings in two starts. The Over is 4-0-1 in Urquidy’s past five outings. Unlike most of the recent matchups that have been one-sided, we think this Astros-Rangers game will feature plenty of runs from both sides. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-15-21 | Brewers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Brewers (89-56) and the Tigers (69-76) combined to score a total of one run in 11 innings Tuesday. That was a misfire by us as we laid the -1.5 on the run line with the favorite. Now certainly we didn’t expect Milwaukee to give up many runs. They came into last night riding a five-game win streak where they’d allowed a total of just seven runs. Three of their previous seven wins have been shutouts. Sure enough, they held the Tigers to three hits including the game-winning double in the 11th. We can’t envision a scenario where the home team does much at the plate this afternoon. Detroit will be facing Brandon Woodruff, who is among the league leaders in both ERA (2.48) and WHIP (0.97). Woodruff was roughed up a bit on Labor Day and then given the weekend off due to illness. We expect him to pitch well this afternoon on extended rest. In four of his five August starts, Woodruff allowed either one or zero runs. He has 24 strikeouts against only four walks his last three starts overall. The Tigers struck out 18 times last night! The Brewers had their fair share of chances at the plate, but they went only 1 for 10 when they had runners in scoring position. They should have won the game despite managing just four hits - all singles. We don’t think they’re going to score a ton today. Yesterday marked the second time in seven games they were shutout. Detroit is going with Matt Manning, who has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-14-21 | Cardinals v. Mets -164 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -164 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS The Mets are looking to rebound from a 7-0 loss Monday. That leaves them 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 5.5 games back of the division lead in the NL East. Most have already forgotten, but the Mets did lead the division for most of this season. They went cold in August at the same time the Braves got hot. But that’s all “water under the bridge” now as they need wins in a hurry. Marcus Strowman has been their most consistent starter (since Jacob deGrom went down) and will start tonight’s game vs. a St. Louis team that - prior to the ninth inning of yesterday’s game - hadn’t been doing a ton of scoring recently. The Cardinals have won the last two games in shutout fashion, but also have scored two runs or less in six of the last 10 games. Having won three straight, they are a ½ game back of the Wild Card now, but they’ve still got a negative run differential on the year. The Mets actually have a slightly better RD than the Cardinals (-10 vs. -13). We’re skeptics on St. Louis tonight as they have Jake Woodford set to go. He’s simply not as good as Stroman. The Cardinals can’t count on getting a start like the one they got from Adam Wainwright last night. If the Mets can swing the bats like they did vs. the Yankees (averaged eight runs/game in three game series) and Strowman delivers his usual solid start, then this will be an easy win for the home team. That’s what we see happening here. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-14-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MIL -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Brewers have won five in a row overall. As they inch closer to the NL Central pennant, they can become the first team to 50 road wins on Tuesday when they head to Detroit. On paper, it looks like a very easy week for Milwaukee as they have two games here followed by three at home vs. the Cubs. At some point during a 10-game home stand, they will clinch the division. It’s just a matter of time. A string of strong pitching performances, including MLB’s 9th no hitter of 2021 on Saturday, have propelled the Brewers to an 89-55 record. They’ve scored 10 or more runs in three of the last five games, outscoring opponents 38-7. Detroit did just take two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but they aren’t going to finish .500 and are just 4-10 in their past 14 home games. They are also 1-6 off their previous seven victories. Milwaukee has won seven of eight following an off day and 36 of its last 52 games overall. Tuesday’s starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the Brewers and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Detroit’s Wily Peralta (no relation) has not won a decision since July 18th. Pretty one-sided in our estimation. Why not lay the -1.5? Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Baltimore has a habit of getting the season off to a great start as they’ve covered five straight Week 1 games. They’ve scored 38 or more points each of the last three openers. Lamar Jackson has accounted for eight touchdowns the last two years in Week 1, the most by any player in the league. The Las Vegas defense really struggled in ‘20 giving up the second most touchdowns in the NFL. It worked out to 30.8 points/game allowed. The absolutely terrible injury bug that has bitten Baltimore’s running backs would be a bigger deal if they didn’t have Jackson. But they do. Look for Jackson to hook up with TE Mark Andrews, who had seven touchdowns over the final seven regular season games of last year. One injury on the defensive side of the ball, to CB Peters, may be a bigger deal here for Baltimore. That’s because the Raiders averaged 27.1 points/game themselves last year. That’s an almost identical number to what the Ravens averaged offensively. So it’s no surprise the Over was 13-3 in all Las Vegas games in the 2020 season. Seven of the eight home games went Over including all six where they were an underdog. They ended 2020 on a 5-0 Over run. The last five times they’ve played Baltimore, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -191 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 6* on NEW YORK There’s no time for the Yankees to stew over Sunday night’s 7-6 loss to the Mets. That’s because it’s right back to work this afternoon in a make-up game vs. the Twins. The Yankees are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and have watched as Toronto has passed them in the Wild Card race. But it wasn’t too long ago that New York was riding high on a 13-game win streak. That win streak included three wins against the Twins. It could have been four, but the finale of that series was rained out. That’s what we are making up today and we think the Yankees will “complete the sweep” 22 days later. Minnesota lost two of three over the weekend in Kansas City. They are in last place and have been one of the five worst teams to bet on in 2021. Their record vs. the Yankees is pretty poor. Not only did they lose three times here last month, but they are 11-43 in their last 54 games at Yankees Stadium. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games against the Yankees overall. The Yankees need a win very badly today and should feel confident handing the ball to Luis Gil, who has a 1.42 ERA in his first four starts. For Minnesota, John Gant gave up four runs in 3.3 innings the last time he faced the Yankees. He’s off his best start since joining the Twins, but actually needed 96 pitches to get through five innings. That was his most pitches thrown in any of his four starts with his new team. Home team wins this one. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER For the fourth straight year, Chicago and Los Angeles will be facing off in primetime. The previous three installments have all been low-scoring games (Under 3-0) and seen an average of just 26.3 points/game scored. The quarterbacks will be different this time around, but we think the end result (a low-scoring game) will remain the same. Andy Dalton starting for the Bears is a mistake and we don’t fear him at all going against what was the league’s #1 ranked scoring defense last year. Not only did the Rams allow the fewest points/game (18.5), they also allowed the fewest number of yards. In the last three meetings vs. the Rams, Matt Nagy’s offense has scored just 32 points and never topped 15. Jared Goff is the new starter in LA and while he’s going to be better than Jared Goff was, the loss of RB Cam Akers to a season-ending injury does loom large. The Under was 8-0 in Rams’ home games during the 2020 season as there was an average of only 34.3 total points/game scored. This total looks way too high for the first week of the regular season considering the head to head history and Dalton facing what was the top-ranked defense in the league last year. It wasn’t just last year; the Under is 14-3 in the Rams’ last 17 home games. Chicago is 13-5 Under its last 18 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-12-21 | Packers -173 v. Saints | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -173 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 6* on GB (money line) This line has been all over the place. New Orleans opened as a three-point favorite over the summer. But that was when there was some uncertainty over Aaron Rodgers’ future in Green Bay. Once Rodgers made his presence felt in Packers’ camp, then the line flipped and Green Bay became a three-point favorite. It has since moved up even further with the game being moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. Losing a home game is terrible for the Saints. Already, they are faced with no Drew Brees for the first time in over a decade. The Saints are quite likely to take a bit of a tumble down the standings as a result. We’ve never been fans of his replacement, Jameis Winston. There are nine other new starters for this year. There were a total of 57 starts lost on defense. Winston does not have the kind of depth at receiver to work with that Brees enjoyed. This just isn’t going to be the same Saints team that you are used to seeing. As long as Green Bay has Rodgers, they are fine. They’ve won six of seven games under Matt LaFleur in the month of September. They’ve won 13 games each of the last two seasons. We prefer the moneyline route as we’d rather not lay points in this unique circumstance. But we are confident in Green Bay winning. The Saints only played two preseason games because of Ida. Play on GREEN BAY (MONEYLINE) AAA |
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09-12-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto has finally done it! They caught the Yankees for the second Wild Card and are only a game behind Boston for the top Wild Card spot. They’ve won eight of nine after sweeping a doubleheader from Baltimore in remarkable fashion on Saturday. The first game saw them come back to win 11-10 with a four-run seventh (remember doubleheaders are only seven innings now). The second game was even wilder as they failed to get a single hit through the first six innings before erupting for an 11-run seventh! It’s Baltimore that they are facing again Sunday. After taking two crushing losses the previous day, we can’t see a team that has fallen to 50 games below .500 having much resolve today. Thus, our call is for the Blue Jays to win this game by two or more runs. From a value standpoint, the run line is obviously much better than a straight money line bet here. Steven Matz should handle a feeble Orioles lineup on Sunday. The Toronto left-hander has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven consecutive starts. Eight different Blue Jays homered on Saturday as the team scored 22 runs in 14 innings. They’re going against a rookie in Zac Lowther on Sunday. This is just Lowther’s third start and seventh appearance at the big league level. He was good in his most recent start, but the first one (which was back in May) saw him give up seven runs in 2.3 innings. Look for the Jays to rough him up on their way to a convincing win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona was 8-8 last season. So they were the definition of mediocre. It was an unpleasant end to the campaign as the Cardinals lost their final three games, which cost them a playoff opportunity. QB Kyler Murray was hampered by an injury down the stretch. He’s back and ready to go this year. Murray and the Arizona offense couldn’t have asked for a much more favorable matchup in Week 1. This Tennessee defense was bad in 2020. It ranked 24th in scoring, 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage. Healthy again and able to use his legs, Murray should do very well in this game. There were eight times last season where the Titans allowed 30 points or more. For much of the year, opposing offenses were converting at almost a 60 percent clip on third downs. The Titans still made the playoffs (11-5) thanks to the offense, which added Julio Jones for 2021. But don’t look for Tennessee to score many more points than they did last year. Can they really top over 30 points/game at home? Jones and QB Tannehill had limited reps together in training camp. Derrick Henry is coming off a heavy 2020 workload. They also lost coordinator Arthur Smith, who took the head coaching job at Atlanta. Early start times have not bothered the Cardinals in the past as they are 6-3 ATS in games played at 1 PM ET under Kliff Kingsbury. The Titans may look better on paper heading into 2021, but we’re not convinced they are actually better this year. Arizona does look better. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF San Francisco is the pick of most to be the most improved team in the league. They have a win total of 10.5 after going 6-10 last year. Now there’s a 17th regular season game added. But a five-win improvement is a big deal in this league. It’s certainly possible seeing as the 49ers won 13 games two years ago and made it to the Super Bowl. Will they get back to that level again for Kyle Shanahan? That remains to be seen. But you know which team won’t be in the Super Bowl in February? The Lions. They’ve never been in one, joining the Browns, Jaguars and Texans as the only franchises to never make it to the final game. Even by Lions’ standards, this team looks bad. It’s been pegged for five wins in Dan Campbell’s debut season. Matt Stafford is gone, off to LA, and his replacement (Jared Goff) is a clear downgrade. The defense was one of the worst in the league a season ago. Campbell is going to work to improve that side of the ball, but it’s going to take time. The 49ers like to run the ball and should not encounter much resistance in this one as the Lions were very poor at stopping the run last year. San Francisco has won 15 of the previous 17 encounters with Detroit. The fact they are a sizable road favorite could be head-turning for a few folks, but the Lions really are bad. They only won five games last year and four of those were by less than five points. There’s been no position that was clearly upgraded in the offseason. San Francisco fell to six wins because of poor health as multiple stars were lost to season ending injuries. The team is healthy for 2021 and Jimmy G is going to have a big passing day here. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions OVER 45 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We like the Over in 49ers-Lions game as well. We already went through how easily the Niners should be able to move the ball in this one. Well, let’s now throw in the fact that the last 10 Lions season openers have all gone Over the total. Their offense should score enough to make it 11 in a row. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Ball State v. Penn State UNDER 58 | Top | 13-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Penn State may not see a better defense all season than the one they faced last week. The fact the Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin and won 16-10 bodes really well for James Franklin and this season. But PSU did only gain 11 first downs for the game and needed a +3 turnover margin to win in Madison. They had the ball for just over 17 minutes. They will do better offensively this week against Ball State, who was a 31-21 winner last week over Western Illinois, but count on this being another low-scoring affair for the Nittany Lions. Not just because of their question marks on offense, but they also happen to have a pretty great defense in Happy Valley these days. Ball State just isn’t going to do much scoring Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The Cardinals’ only hope in this game is that Penn State is looking ahead to Auburn next week. Being in the middle of a Wisconsin-Auburn sandwich does somewhat work to BSU’s favor. It’s an experienced team out of Muncie, one that won the MAC Championship Game last December. We actually believe they can hang around … for a while. If we’re right about that, it probably means it’s a low scoring game. The Under is 6-0 in Ball State’s previous six games vs. Big Ten competition. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | Top | 15-4 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Cubs have won Zach Davies' last three starts. This despite Davies’ own 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in that stretch. Now his individual numbers are skewed a bit due to allowing six runs to Pittsburgh on Sunday. But you’ve also got to consider the last three opponents that Davies has faced. Not only was it the Pirates, but you also had matchups with Minnesota and Colorado. That’s two last place teams and a home start vs. a team that’s 20-50 on the road. It’s a much different caliber of opponent on Saturday for Davies and the Cubs. The Giants have the best record in the majors. Following a 6-1 at Wrigley on Friday San Francisco is 91-50 and has won five straight. They lead the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. Kevin Gausman has pitched very well for them this season and gets the start this afternoon. Gausman has a sub-1.00 WHIP overall and his ERA on the road is 1.95. In 26 of his 28 starts, Gausman hasn’t given up more than three earned runs. The Cubs are hitting just .219 against righties, so this is an awful matchup for them and they are very likely to lose. But we’ll also call for a quieter day than usual at the plate for the Giants. They’ve scored six or more in every game during this win streak. The Under is 11-3-2 in the Giants’ last 17 games in Chicago where they have lost 17 of 21. The Cubs have gone Under in four straight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia OVER 55 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Illinois was so kind to us in their first game when they upset Nebraska 30-22 as a 6.5-point underdog. We did not take them a second time when they faced UTSA last week. The Illini did score 30 points again. But this time the defense allowed 37. They gave up almost 500 yards at home. The defense figures to be tested again this week as it goes to Charlottesville to take on a Virginia team that’s won nine straight non-conference home games. The Cavaliers also just so happened to score 43 points in their first game. While it was against William & Mary, the fact the Hoos gained well over 500 yards is worth something. Nine different receivers caught a pass. "There's appearing to be the makings of a pretty diverse offense with a lot of different opportunities, with room to grow on the execution," UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. On the flip side, it’s very impressive to see Illinois score 60 points in two games with a backup quarterback. Sitkowski will start Saturday, but we could see Brandon Peters for the first time since the opening game. The Over is 10-4 in Illinois’ last 14 games after an ATS loss. Not only is the Over 10-2 in Virginia’s last 12 home games, it is 27-11-1 the last 38 times they’ve been favored. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-10-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers and Padres renew pleasantries in what will be a big series for both teams. Believe it or not, San Diego holds the head to head edge in the season series, 7-6. But they did get swept at home by the Dodgers late last month. The Padres are desperately holding onto the second Wild Card spot in the National League with a one-game lead over Cincinnati while St. Louis and Philadelphia are also lurking close behind. The Dodgers have a playoff spot all but locked up as they are 13 games ahead of the Padres. But right now they’d also be a WIld Card, meaning they’d host San Diego in the one-game playoff. Los Angeles clearly has its eyes on the division crown though as they trail San Francisco by 2.5 games. Do not look for many runs to be scored in this game. The Padres send out Joe Musgrove and he’s given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Musgrove has gone at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Dodgers counter with Julio Urias. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. In fact, he’s allowed just eight runs total in those eight starts. The Dodgers have won the last six! We can’t believe this total isn’t lower. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-10-21 | Rays -160 v. Tigers | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB We don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Rays should dominate the Tigers? While Tampa Bay does come into the series off a 2-1 loss to Boston, that was on Thursday. They’d taken care of business the first two games at Fenway Park and still enjoy a very comfortable nine game lead in the American League East. They are 88-52 overall and have the top run difference in the whole AL. They are putting up almost six runs/game on the road, which is way ahead of everybody else. Their 43 road victories are the most in the AL and third most in all of MLB. We should probably mention that the Rays have won 13 of their last 17 games overall. Michael Wacha will start Friday’s opener. He’s off perhaps his best performance of 2021. It was one week ago that Wacha held Minnesota to just two runs and three hits (two solo home runs) over six innings. Tampa won the game 5-3. Detroit has a 66-75 record and just lost two of three to the Pirates. Matthew Boyd will be making just his third start since coming off the 60-day IL. He wasn’t sharp in his last start, giving up five runs in a loss at Cincinnati. These teams haven’t played this season, but the Rays are 7-2 the last nine meetings. They’ve also won five straight series openers. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER You surely remember how Tampa Bay’s 2020 season ended. A 31-9 thrashing of Kansas City in Super Bowl LV has to rank among the peak accomplishments of Tom Brady’s career and think of the ground that covers. Every starter from the Bucs’ Super Bowl winning team - on both offense and defense - returns for the 2021 season. That has never happened for a SB winning team in the salary cap era. An even more frightening proposition is that Brady was playing with an injured knee last season and still threw for 50 touchdowns in the regular season & playoffs. He’s had offseason surgery to fix the knee issue and also has had an additional year to further grasp Bruce Arians’ offense. The Cowboys, coming off a 6-10 SU campaign, do not have the defense to stop the Buccaneers. They gave up 29.6 points/game last year. While Jerry Jones sought to address the defensive concerns via the Draft, we don’t think you are going to see automatic improvement on that side of the ball, right off the bat. We do think you’ll see the Cowboys’ offense be good again now that Dak Prescott is set to return from an ankle injury that cost him most of the 2020 season. Even with RG Martin possibly missing Thursday’s game, the offensive line is one of the league’s best. RB Elliott should have a bounce back year and we like the receivers. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 10 games where Tampa Bay has been a home favorite. Dallas is 4-0 Over its last four tries as an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-09-21 | White Sox v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We had the A’s last night and they won 5-1, evening this series with the White Sox up at a game apiece. Of the two teams, the A’s are the ones in greater need of more wins. Last night ended a four-game losing streak for them and they are three games back of the Wild Card. Chicago comfortably leads the AL Central by 11 games and will make the playoffs without question. But we are a little less bullish on the home team today. That’s because they won’t be going against Dallas Keuchel again. It’ll be Reynaldo Lopez starting this afternoon for the White Sox. This will be his sixth start of the year. While he’s yet to go more than five innings in any of the first five, Lopez has only given up eight total runs so far. He faced Oakland last month and held them to only one hit in five innings. The A’s didn’t even score a run in that game. The White Sox scored nine times, but they won’t get nearly that many today as they will face Sean Manaea. His last start was very good as he held Toronto to just a pair of runs in seven innings. It was rather unfortunate the A’s ended up losing that game 11-10, but you can blame the bullpen for that. These teams have met six times in ‘21 and none of the games have gone Over (three unders, three pushes). There have been just 15 total runs scored in the first two games and only one home run hit. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -162 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Chicago comes in at 80-58 on the season and leads the American League Central by 11 games. Clearly, they are playoff-bound. Oakland’s situation is a lot more dicey. They are 74-64 overall, placing them seven games back of Houston in the AL West and 3.5 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card. The A’s losing streak hit four in a row last night with a 6-3 setback against the White Sox. We view tonight as a real “must win” for the Athletics and they probably do as well. Things were looking great on August 12th when the A’s had won seven in a row and were coming off a 17-0 win against Cleveland. They were 67-48 at that time. Since then they have lost 16 of 23 games. While it may seem tough to want to go with Oakland today, just look at the pitching matchup we’ve got on tap. Frankie Montas has a 1.31 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his last three starts for Oakland. Dallas Keuchel has a 16.00 ERA and 3.11 WHIP in his last three starts for Chicago. That seems like a pretty substantial edge towards the home team. We don’t see the White Sox scoring many runs tonight. They are 22 games above .500 at home. But going into yesterday, they had a losing record on the road. They are 15-38 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-08-21 | Phillies v. Brewers -154 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee beat Philadelphia 10-0 last night, a complete reversal from Monday’s game which was a Phillies’ 12-0 win. Yesterday also marked the first time in six tries that the Brewers were able to beat the Phillies. They’ll try and do it again Wednesday and the odds are certainly in their favor. One day after hitting six home runs, the Phillies couldn’t do anything against Eric Lauer. They had just five hits in last night’s game. This season, the Brewers are 12-3 immediately following a shutout win. They are 30 games over .500 overall and have a franchise record 11-game division lead. It’s on Freddy Peralta to get the job done here. While he’s struggled due to shoulder soreness, we believe he gets the job done Wednesday night. Philadelphia is just 2-5 after being blanked. This will be their ninth straight road game. They are below .500 on the road this year, which is why they are behind in the Wild Card race. They’re just four games over .500 for the year. Kyle Gibson was hammered in his most recent start, giving up eight runs. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-07-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Eight runs were scored in yesterday’s Blue Jays- Yankees game and all of them came from the road team. Things could very well “flip” in favor of the home team today, but we expect more runs to be scored. While that may surprise you, given that Gerrit Cole is starting, Toronto has scored 37 runs in the last four games. They’ve scored at least eight times in all four. They could have scored even more than eight yesterday as the Yankees committed three errors, but none were capitalized on. Obviously, you’ve got to expect the Yankees will bounce back in the batters box tonight. Steven Matz’s career ERA vs. NY is 5.77. Matz’s last four starts have all been against bad teams - Seattle, Detroit twice and Baltimore. So it’s no wonder his numbers have improved recently. The Yankees are 6-1 after being shutout this season. Expect this game to go Over the total. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-07-21 | Mets -152 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS The Mets lost Monday. But they still won the five-game series with Washington. Their other loss came as part of a doubleheader Saturday. Yesterday saw them give up two runs in the bottom of the ninth. That leaves the Mets at .500 and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Remember that they were leading the NL East for much of the season. Both losses over the weekend came about as a result of blown save opportunities, so really the Mets should be coming off a five-game sweep. They move onto Miami Tuesday to face the division’s other also-ran. Carlos Carrasco will start tonight’s opener. He has a 0.81 WHIP in his previous three trips to the mound. For his career against the Marlins, he is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in four starts. He was on the mound for last Thursday’s 4-3 win over them. The Mets won both games in that series. The Marlins are 6-14 playing with a day off, so no advantage there. This is a must win game and series for the Mets, so play accordingly. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels -127 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAA Given how this series - and season - have gone for the Rangers, the money line is way too low for Monday’s matchup with the Angels. We realize Texas did win yesterday 7-3. But they are just 17-30 after a win this season. Last place in the AL West was always the reality for a team that’s 40 games below .500 and 17-51 on the road. Obviously, that road record is just atrocious. The current plan with the Rangers’ starting rotation seems to be just getting looks at the young arms. AJ Alexy had an admirable major league debut last week, but that was against a Colorado team that doesn’t hit well on the road outside of Coors Field. The Rockies are one of the few teams who can match the Rangers’ ineptitude on the road. The Angels average almost five full runs per game at home. Jaime Barria should do well in this start. His previous start resulted in a win over the Yankees, a game where the Angels were +185 on the money line. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Should be a ton of points in this one. Ole Miss led the SEC in rushing last season. They also have one of the top QBs in the nation, Matt Corral. We know they won’t have Lane Kiffin (COVID-19), but the personnel is strong enough to overcome the absence of the coach. Now the Rebels defense is a different story. They gave up the most yards, not just in the SEC but in the entire country! Louisville’s offense should revert back to 2019 when QB Cunningham had 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. This is his third year as the starter. Cunningham will have a big game here, if only because he HAS to. Corral led FBS in total yards per game last year. Mississippi games were insanely high scoring. They went over 40 points five times in 2020. But they also gave up more than 40 five different times. This game certainly has the potential to see both teams go for 40-plus. Five teams gained 500 yards against the Rebels last year. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-06-21 | Reds -141 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -141 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN The Reds look to put a disappointing stretch behind them when they visit Wrigley Field on Labor Day. Cincy no longer has the edge for the second Wild Card berth in the National League entering today’s action. They’ve fallen a half game behind San Diego, who is off Monday. The Reds just lost two of three at home to Detroit, an unacceptable result when you consider what they are playing for right now. Look for them to turn things around though against the Cubs, who had a horrible August. September has gone a bit differently on the North Side as the team is unbeaten. They’ve won six straight overall. But all six wins were against bad teams. The last four came in a weekend sweep of the terrible Pirates. Today’s pitching matchup greatly favors the Reds. Sonny Gray has a 1.00 ERA and 0.556 WHIP in his previous three starts. He’s won them all. Justin Steele is a rookie making just his fifth career start for the Cubs. The team has gone 1-3 in the first four, one of which was a 14-5 loss to the Reds. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-05-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 (RUN LINE) Toronto looks to be rising from the dead. They’d lost 9 of 13 after falling to Detroit 2-1 on 8/27 and their playoff chances certainly looked to be on life support. But they’ve responded by winning six of seven and scoring 21 runs in the last two games. Each of those last two games were against Oakland and now the Jays can sweep on Sunday. They came from way behind on Friday, rallying three different times including a six-run eighth inning and a walk-off Marcus Semien three-run HR. Yesterday saw them jump out to a big 10-3 lead and hold on to win 10-8. Hard not to like this team right now, particularly with Robbie Ray starting. Ray has been great this year as his 14-12 TSR is highly misleading. He’s delivered seven straight quality starts where he’s allowed only nine runs. It’s a 1.72 ERA in that stretch and he has 35 strikeouts vs. only two walks his last three starts. Oakland is fading right now as they’ve lost 6 of 10. Cole Irvin’s last three starts have produced a 5.93 ERA and 2.121 WHIP. The fact he has the same TSR as Ray over his L7 starts is criminal. Let’s ride the hot team in this one with a pitcher who is due for another win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-05-21 | Mets -122 v. Nationals | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS These teams played two yesterday. The Mets won the first game 11-9, but then the Nationals bounced back with a 4-3 win in the nightcap. What was notable about that first game is the Mets blew a nine-run lead. They needed a 2-run HR by Francisco Lindor in the ninth to win it. It was their sixth straight win as well as Washington’s seventh straight loss. The Mets had previously never blown an eight-run lead and lost. It was similar on Friday when they needed extra innings after blowing a two-run lead going into the ninth. We wouldn’t put too much stock in Washington winning the second game Saturday. It’s tough to sweep a doubleheader. What we do know is the Mets should be the more motivated team heading into Sunday’s series finale. They are 3.5 games back of Atlanta for the division lead and 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. The Nationals are a last place team simply playing out the string. Taijuan Walker, who will start today’s game for the Mets, is really due for a win. He has an 0-7 team start record his past seven starts despite having a 0.80 WHIP in the previous three. Those last three starts were all against either the Dodgers or Giants, the two best teams. Josiah Gray just gave up six runs in his last start for the Nationals. He’s allowed at least one home run in every start he’s made this season. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson OVER 51 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on OVER The marquee game on Saturday pits #5 Georgia against #3 Clemson. This game takes place in Charlotte where Clemson has won six straight times, five of those being for the ACC Championship. So they’ve got a bit of a “home field” advantage, though we’re sure they’d prefer this game to take place in Death Valley. You also might think that the Tigers wish they still had Trevor Lawrence at QB. But his replacement D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards last year against Notre Dame,a game Clemson lost but still put up 40 points. So don’t think for a second that this Clemson offense is going to struggle much to score points with Lawrence off to the NFL. JT Daniels is the Georgia QB and threw for 10 touchdowns over the final four games of last year. The Dawgs’ offensive backfield is even more talented when accounting for the loaded running back position. Both programs may be known for defense, but the coaches know it’s going to take plenty of points to win this one. Asking both offenses to top 25 points doesn’t seem like asking for too much? Georgia went Over in six of its last seven regular season games. There was only one game last year where they failed to hit 24. Clemson never scored fewer than 28 in any game during 2020. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-04-21 | White Sox -151 v. Royals | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were beaten 7-2 last night. That was unexpected as the Kansas City team that beat them just got swept at home by Cleveland. The Royals had dropped four in a row overall heading into Friday’s opener. But they’ve now won three straight over the White Sox. That said, Chicago leads this division for a reason. They’d previously won five of six and scored at least 10 runs in three of those five wins. Let’s just chalk up last night’s result to a 2+ hr rain delay and the fact that Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been very good lately. But Reynaldo Lopez has been good for them. In three August starts, the right-hander gave up just three runs and eight hits. While he pitched only 12 innings, we’ll take it. Kansas City had been held under four runs for four straight games coming into the series. Daniel Lynch hasn’t been giving up many runs lately, but that’ll change if his control issues persist. Lynch has a 4.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP for the year. His worst start of 2021 came here at home against the White Sox. They blasted him for eight runs over a disastrous two-thirds of an inning. That was back in May, but Chicago still knows how to hit. They’ve averaged 7.3 runs over the last seven games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-04-21 | Marshall v. Navy UNDER 48 | Top | 49-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring contest. Navy scored only 13 points in the final three games of 2020. They go up against a Marshall defense that not only had an entire offseason to prepare for the triple option, but also led the country in stopping the run last year. The Thundering Herd allowed just 96 yards/game on the ground in what was largely a successful campaign. They were also #1 in the country in scoring defense. But the Thundering Herd finished 7-3 (started 7-0) due in large part to their own offensive ineptitude. They were shut out by Rice, scored only 13 in the C-USA Championship vs. UAB and then only 10 in a bowl loss to Buffalo. This is an offense that put up 20 points or less in half of its games. All the big point totals came against really weak opponents. Navy’s defense has all of its starters from last year back and will be stout. The last three games of 2020 saw them hold every opponent to less than 300 total yards, a first for the program going back to 1997. But back to the Navy offense for a second. They are off their least productive year on the ground in over a quarter century. Marshall’s D allowed more than 17 points in just one game last year! Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-03-21 | Astros v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston has been shutout in its last two games. As you’d imagine, such an occurrence is quite uncommon. It has happened once before in 2021. Sure enough, the Astros bounced back to score eight runs in the next game. That’s what we’re looking for tonight as we play the Over in the series opener with the San Diego Padres. Houston leads all teams in scoring this year, averaging 5.3 runs/game. San Diego’s pitching is in tatters right now and the chance to face Jake Arrieta is something Houston should take full advantage of tonight. Arrieta has been really bad - whether pitching for the Cubs or Padres. He has a 7.13 ERA over 21 starts. He’s failed to go more than four innings in any of his last six starts and has a 13.50 ERA in the last three. So we know Houston is going to put a crooked number on the board tonight. Look for San Diego also to score enough here to make sure the game goes Over. They are facing Jose Urquidy, who hasn’t pitched since June. Six of Urquidy’s last eight starts went Over with the Astros scoring at least nine runs five times. He’ll be on a pitch count. San Diego has gone Over its last seven interleague games vs. teams with winning records. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -155 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -155 | 79 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N'western ML The underdog has won this Big 10 matchup four of the last five years, and five of the last seven. Last November it was Michigan State pulling a 29-20 upset in East Lansing - as a 13.5 point underdog - one of only two wins Sparty had all last season. Northwestern entered that game 5-0 and was ranked #8 in the country at the time. It was a wild game that saw MSU first jump out to a 17-0 lead, only to then fall behind 20-17. Things got real wild late as two Northwestern turnovers led to Michigan State field goals. The Spartans formally put the game away with a fumble return for a TD on the final play. We think Northwestern, despite pretty significant roster turnover, will avenge one of its two defeats from a year ago. We don’t want to lay the points though. Rather, take the Wildcats on the money line Friday night in Evanston. They won all four games at Ryan Field last season. Michigan State is 2-5 straight up in its last seven road games. Mel Tucker has a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball entering his second season as the head coach. Pat Fitzgerald always has a good defense at Northwestern. With MSU having questions at quarterback, the Wildcats won’t give up many points and they’ll win. Play NORTHWESTERN (money line) AAA |
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09-03-21 | Old Dominion v. Wake Forest UNDER 64 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Old Dominion took the 2020 season off so this is our first look at the program since November 30th, 2019 when they lost to Charlotte 38-22. The Monarchs have not won a College Football game since August 31st of 2019 against Norfolk State. Their last win over an FBS opponent was on November 10, 2018 over North Texas. The last time ODU beat a FBS team by more than three points was September 22, 2018 when they beat a Virginia Tech team that was ranked 13th in the country at the time! So we shouldn’t expect much from them in the 2021 season opener vs. Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons struggled defensively in 2020, but we aren’t expecting much from the Monarchs’ offense in this first game. Another key is offseason injuries with the Wake Forest offense. Now they will still put up points, led by QB Hartman. Just not enough to get this one Over the total. We just don’t expect ODU to score much. Wake would have to exceed 45 points for the Over to even have a chance here. In the first game of the season, we’re not seeing them score that many. Only two of the top nine receivers from the 2019 team are back. Another team that took 2020 off - UConn - was blanked in its 2021 opener last weekend. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Pirates and Cubs started their series yesterday and the home team took the opener by a score of 6-5. It was not the most deserved win for the Cubbies, but after a disastrous August they’ll take a “W” anyway they can get it. In this instance, it was a mishandled pop fly by Pirates second baseman Wilmer Difo in the 11th inning that brought home the winning run. The Cubs did have 12 hits to the Pirates’ 7, so in that regard they did deserve to win. But their first five runs of the game all came in the seventh inning. It was the fourth straight win over the Pirates going back to May. The Cubs have now won three in a row overall. The Pirates wasted a perfectly good start from Mitch Keller last night. They are unlikely to get the same kind of outing here today from Steven Brault. Not only is Brault winless in his five starts this year, but he is coming off his worst performance yet. He gave up seven runs in three innings on Saturday. The Cubs have not been a good opponent for Brault. He is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA against them in 16 appearances, which includes seven starts. Similarly, Cubs starter Alec Mills hasn’t been good in the past against the Pirates. He’s 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in seven career matchups. The wind is expected to be blowing out today at Wrigley. With that bit of news, two subpar starting pitchers and the Over 4-0-1 the last five games at Wrigley, we’re going Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-02-21 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER You won’t find too many MLB totals higher than this one. But we’re at Coors Field where the average number of runs per game scored this season is 10.6. The Rockies average 5.9 themselves, the most by any team in their home park across all of baseball. The Braves couldn’t wait to get out of Chavez Ravine after being swept there to start the week. Something tells us that they’ll enjoy facing the Rockies much more than they did the Dodgers. It starts with going up against Chi Chi Gonzalez. With only two wins in 16 starts, it’s not been a good 2021 for the Colorado hurler. His ERA is 6.15. Gonzalez wasn’t even supposed to pitch today. Scheduled starter Jon Gray had to go on the injured list because of right forearm tightness. This comes after yesterday’s starter Kyle Freeland left in the second inning with his own injury. Gonzalez had fallen out of the rotation, making only one start in August. He allowed three runs in three innings. He’s also allowed at least one home run in 10 consecutive starts going back to May. The good news for Colorado is that they scored nine runs in a come from behind win over Texas on Wednesday afternoon. They go against Touki Toussaint. Toussaint had a good August, but has never pitched at Coors Field before. Seven of his previous nine starts had gone Over before the last one stayed Under. All three games vs. the Dodgers went Under. But it’s a much different opponent for the Braves this weekend. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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09-01-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIL +1.5 The Brewers have come in and taken the first two games against the Giants. That’s impressive. San Francisco has the best overall record in the majors as well as the highest win percentage at home. But nobody has more road victories in 2021 than the Brewers, who are 45-23 away from American Family Field. Only two other teams, the Giants being one of them, have 40 road wins this season. We’re not sure if the Brewers will finish the sweep here tonight, but we do like them getting 1.5 via the run line. Milwaukee went off as the favorite for each of the last two days. It says a lot that oddsmakers would favor them in San Francisco. Having Burnes and Woodruff start was a big reason for that. Tonight’s starter is Brett Anderson. The team has lost the previous four times he’s started. So we understand why the line has “flipped” the Giants' way. However, Milwaukee has simply been playing better of late. They have won 7 of 10 whereas the Giants have lost 4 of 5. Kevin Gausman hasn’t lost since July 30th for the Giants but has allowed a total of 10 runs his last three starts. Milwaukee led last night’s game 6-0 as SF was held to two hits for the first five innings. The Brewers’ lineup is back to full strength with Willy Adames back and Christian Yelich on a 10-game hit streak. Five of the Giants' last seven wins have been by one run. Our view is that Anderson pitches better than expected and the Brewers’ lineup continues to swing the bat well. Play on MILWAUKEE +1.5 AAA |
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09-01-21 | Rockies -126 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO It takes a lot to want to play Colorado on the road, especially after two straight losses. There are nine teams with 40 or more home wins. Four reside in the National League West and the Rockies (43-22) are one of them. But they are just 17-50 outside of Coors after taking a 4-3 loss last night in Arlington. But this is the Rangers that they are still facing. At 47-85, Texas is having an even worse season than Colorado. That record is third worst overall. They are still a MLB-worst 12-30 since the All Star Break even though they’ve won three straight. The last time the Rangers won three in a row was July 31st-August 2nd. They have not won four in a row, or swept an opponent, since late June. It is difficult to see the home team prevailing today with Kohei Arihara starting. Making his first start since May, Arihara has a 6.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season. His last three starts saw him give up 16 runs in 8.3 innings. Granted, that was a long time ago. But there’s no reason to expect a good performance here. Coming off shoulder surgery, Arihara will throw only 40-45 pitches before giving way to a bullpen that isn’t very good. The Rockies tend to struggle to score runs on the road, which is why the record is so bad, but they do have a DH at their disposal here. They also have Kyle Freeland and they are 5-0 in his previous five starts. Freeland also posted a 2.40 ERA in July. Over his last three starts, he’s beaten the Dodgers and Giants. So it stands to reason he should beat the Rangers. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-31-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD Over the past week, Atlanta has cooled off. Playing the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers will do that to you. After winning nine in a row from 8/13 to 8/22, the Braves have dropped four of their last six. They lost 5-3 last night. It is unlikely that they will turn things around tonight at Dodgers Stadium. Walker Buehler is pitching for the home side and he’s 13-2 in 26 starts. His ERA and WHIP are down to 2.02 and 0.92. LA has won the last four times he’s started and he has a 1.13 ERA the last seven starts. We’re not in the habit of betting against one of the best teams in baseball when their top pitcher is going. Charlie Morton is having a fine year for Atlanta but did allow four runs last week in a home loss to the Yankees. He gave up two home runs. Going back to Buehler, he dominated the Braves in last year’s National League Championship Series. He held them to one run in 11 innings. He’s also beaten them both times he’s faced them in the regular season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -136 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE There aren’t many pitchers in the game hotter than Corbin Burnes is right now. The Brewers right-hander has not dropped a decision since May 25th. The team has won his last seven starts with Burnes putting up a 2.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He’s allowed one run or less in five of the seven starts. Tonight’s start will have a decided “postseason feel” as Burnes will face the Giants, the team with the best record in baseball. But Burnes has proven he can handle the Giants. It was earlier this month that he held them to one run and four hits over seven innings. Milwaukee ended up winning 2-1. They won Sunday in Minnesota 6-2. That put a stop to their longest losing streak (three games) since the All Star Break. No team has more road victories than the Brewers’ 43 this season. So they won’t be fazed heading to Oracle Park. They’ve got their best pitcher on the mound for tonight’s opener. The Giants just got through a 10-day road trip and it ended with a 9-0 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. They hit just .209 on that trip. Johnny Cueto is not going to be able to outduel Burnes tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-30-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Arizona’s Tyler Gilbert made his first career start 16 days ago. It was a performance he’ll never forget. Gilbert was the first left-handed pitcher since 1953 to throw a no-hitter in his debut. Now he will once again face the same team he threw that no-hitter against. San Diego is in a free-fall right now and hasn’t been the same since being no-hit by Gilbert. The Padres’ record over the past 16 games is 3-13. They have been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of those 16 contests. They last played on Saturday and lost 10-2 to the Angels. We don’t think they’ll give up that many runs again tonight. The number of runs San Diego allowed on Saturday was their most in a game since an August 12th loss to Arizona. Chris Paddack is set to make his return after missing a month due to injury. Arizona is an ideal opponent for him to return against. Paddack has a 3.38 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona was shut out on Saturday, then scored just four runs on Sunday. They lost both games. We can’t possibly get behind the Diamondbacks, a team with a 44-88 record on the year. But we don’t want to back the slumping Padres either. We are confident that the opener of this series will belong to the pitchers though. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 44 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Week 4 of the CFL ends on Sunday with 2-1 Winnipeg hosting 1-2 Calgary. Both these franchises are accustomed to success. Winnipeg won the last Grey Cup (in 2019). But last week saw them lose a regular season game for the first time in over two years. It was a 30-23 loss to Toronto. The previous regular season loss was 37-33 to Calgary in Week 19 of ‘19. Run defense has been a problem for the Blue Bombers thus far. So far they’ve given up a league high 372 yards on the ground, not to mention three touchdowns. The Bombers’ defense will be facing a rookie QB in this one. But Jake Maier threw for over 300 yards in his debut last week as Calgary beat Montreal 28-22. The Stampeders defense remains susceptible to the big play, however. They have already allowed four pass plays of more than 30 yards. They are allowing 319 pass yards/contest and 8.5 yards/pass attempt. Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros leads all CFL pivots with six touchdown passes so far. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-29-21 | Patriots -165 v. Giants | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NE (ML) The legendary John Madden once said that “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” But that famous quote doesn’t really apply to the NFL preseason. To be frank, the opposite is true. When you’ve got multiple competent quarterbacks, you are more likely to win. Such is the case with New England. Cam Newton and Mac Jones will get one last audition to be the Patriots' starting QB on Sunday. Bill Belichick has a decision to make after this game, but that’s not our concern. We like the fact that we’ve got a QB battle on our hands with the team we’re taking in this one. New England is 2-0 SU/ATS in the preseason, having outscored its two opponents 57-13. No matter who has been in at quarterback, the Patriots have run the ball effectively. They have gone for 386 yards on the ground and scored six touchdowns. The defense has also been impressive. Not just in the first two preseason games, but in joint practices with the Giants, who are Sunday’s opponent. New York will play its starters for at least a half tonight, but after that they’ll give way to a group that’s 0-2 in the preseason and scored just 20 points. Whether it’s Newton or Jones playing in the second half, you can look for them to lead their team to victory. Play on NEW ENGLAND (moneyline) AAA |
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08-29-21 | Reds -174 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -174 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Yesterday marked a first in the 2021 MLB season as the Reds fell to the Marlins. Cincy had previously been 5-0 vs. Miami this year and was 11-1 against them since the start of 2019. We had the Reds when they won 6-0 here on Friday. We think they’ll bounce back today. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks to be in their favor. Tyler Mahle has been just tremendous when he starts on the road for the Reds. He is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA. A five-run first inning by the Marlins is what doomed the Reds on Saturday. With Mahle starting this afternoon, that’s not going to happen again. But Jesus Luzardo has had his problems for Miami and he’s the starter more likely to struggle today. In his last three starts, Luzardo has a 9.94 ERA. It’s been that kind of year for the lefty. He has a 7.51 ERA overall and 6.69 ERA at home. Yesterday was only the third win for the Marlins in their past 12 games. The Reds are holding on to the NL’s second Wild Card right now and thus can’t afford another loss to a last place opponent. They are 30-12 L42 games as a favorite. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-29-21 | Cardinals -168 v. Pirates | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -168 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STL St. Louis was a 13-0 winner last night as they try to stay relevant in the playoff race. They’ve had little difficulty winning here in Pittsburgh all season. Last night brought them to 8-1 at PNC Park in 2021. That’s really not shocking. The Pirates have baseball’s fourth worst overall record and the second worst run differential. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the majors. Last night was all about Adam Wainwright as he extended his own personal scoreless streak against the Pirates to 26 innings. He is unbeaten his last 17 starts against them, which includes a 4-0 record and 0.30 ERA this season. The Pirates could only manage five hits Saturday. Wil Crowe, who will be the Pirates starter Sunday, is having a much different August compared to Wainwright. Crowe is winless with a 5.71 ERA in his past four starts. He has lost two of his three starts against the Cardinals this year. Kwang-Hyun Kim, a lefty, will hope to pick up where Wainwright left off. There was a three-start stretch last month where Kim did not allow any runs. Though his ERA is up over his last three starts, the WHIP is fine and he’s clearly better than Crowe. We don’t see the Cardinals coming anywhere close to making the playoffs, but they are 8-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and seem to have no problem beating the Pirates. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-28-21 | Chargers v. Seahawks UNDER 35.5 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Chargers haven’t let QB Justin Herbert see the field in the preseason. None of the other starters are likely to be on it Saturday night as the team wraps up its preseason with a game in Seattle. Chase Daniel and Easton Stick are the two QBs we’ll see for Los Angeles. They are battling for the backup job. With these two under center, the Chargers have put up just 23 points in two preseason games. Both games went Under as only 19 and 25 total were scored. So the defense has played well. If Russell Wilson does see the field tonight, it won’t be for long. So it should be a third straight solid defensive effort from Brandon Staley’s defense against the Seattle backups. Seattle, who is an ugly 0-2, has only scored 10 points in two games. The defense has struggled but shouldn’t have to worry about much this week. You’ve got to think Under when you’ve got two teams playing backups in the final preseason game. The QB that will play the majority of the game for Seattle is Geno Smith. Enough said. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-28-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston and Texas have played one another 13 times in 2021. The one win by the road team was last night with Houston coming out on top 5-4. It wasn’t looking good early as the Astros trailed 4-0 going into the seventh. But then they erupted for five runs as six consecutive batters reached base. While we acknowledge Houston had just two hits before that, this is the highest scoring team in the game. They put up 5.5 runs/game on the road and have averaged 6.6 their last seven games. They should get to Rangers starter Kolby Allard Saturday night. Allard has been better this month, but still has a 5.29 ERA and his last three starts have all gone Over. The last time he saw Houston, it was ugly as he gave up seven runs. Texas is playing hard, scoring at least four runs in six of the last eight ball games. If they can do that again, then this game should easily eclipse the total. Framber Valdez has been pretty inconsistent for Houston this year. So while he dominated the Rangers last month, it could be a much different story on the road. The Astros are 7-2-2 Over their last 11 games at Texas. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-28-21 | Bears v. Titans OVER 36 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We think this is going to be quite the high-scoring affair. All the talk in Chicago is about Justin Fields, who was selected with the 11th pick in the 2021 Draft. Bears’ fans who desperately want Fields to be the starter will get their wish in this game. Seeing as how Fields was running for his life last week against Buffalo, he’ll probably get to work with the starting offensive line early. Aside from constantly being under pressure last week, Fields has looked very good in the preseason. He was 14 of 20 for 142 yards vs. Miami then went 9 of 19 for 80 yards against Buffalo. The big problem for the Bears against the Bills was their defense getting shredded by Mitchell Trubisky. Despite not playing any starters, Buffalo put up 41 on Matt Nagy’s defense. Tennessee has scored 57 in two blowout wins over Atlanta and Tampa Bay. This despite Ryan Tannehill not playing at all. Tannehill and coach Mike Vrabel are among those on the COVID-19 list for this game, but that’s no problem considering how Matt Barkley and Logan Woodside have looked. The Titans defense has given up just a field goal in both games, but facing Fields and a veteran like Nick Foles today should mean they give up at least double that. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-28-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto suffered a crushing one-run defeat at the hands of Detroit Friday night. The 2-1 final was decided by an inside the park HR from Tigers’ pinch-hitter Victor Reyes in home half of the eighth. That it was the first time in the expansion era that a pinch hitter won the game with an inside the park home run is of little matter to the Blue Jays. They now face a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race and are 1-3 vs. the Tigers this month. They’ve got to turn things around and we like their chances Saturday against Jose Urena. Urena has not pitched in over a month due to a groin injury. When he was pitching, he wasn’t very effective. In 17 starts, he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He’s 2-8 and winless at home. Urena has pitched worse at Comerica Park than he has on the road, so this really is a golden opportunity for Toronto’s hitters to get back on track. The Tigers will also use Tyler Alexander, but the key is jumping on Urena early. We think Alex Manoah will do his job for Toronto. He’s had his fair share of quality starts recently. He held the White Sox to a run in six innings on Monday. That was the seventh time in eight starts he allowed two runs or less. The Blue Jays are a better ballclub and shouldn’t lose two days in a row. They will win here by multiple runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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08-27-21 | Eagles v. Jets -4.5 | Top | 31-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYJ The Jets have enjoyed a successful start to the preseason, winning both games and going 2-0 ATS. This makes sense as they have a new head coach in Robert Saleh and thus a reason to try in these games. Then again the Eagles have a new coach in Nick Sirianni and the preseason has gone much differently for them. Philly is 0-2 straight up and ATS. Since a hot start in the first game against Pittsburgh, the Eagles have been outscored 59-3 in the last seven quarters. They were shutout on national television last week, 35-0, by the Patriots. The Jets have beaten the Giants 12-7 and Packers 23-14. Zach Wilson figures to start and get a few series on Friday night. The rookie threw two touchdown passes in the first half last week. He has not turned the ball over or been sacked in the preseason. Nor has the offense gone three and out with him at the helm. The Eagles offense looked so bad last week. How could anyone back them? They were outgained 486-163 by the Patriots and it was 31-14 in first downs. QB Jalen Hurts being a late scratch did not help matters. In addition to playing Wilson for a few series, Saleh is going with his defensive starters and offensive line. That’s good enough for us. The Eagles' backups have looked atrocious in the two games so far. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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08-27-21 | Hamilton v. Montreal UNDER 47 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This East Division matchup pits 0-2 Hamilton, the only winless team left in the CFL, against Montreal who is 1-1. The Ti-Cats are off a bye. Two weeks ago they got smashed 30-8 by Saskatchewan in a game where the line was pick ‘em. They week before they didn’t fare much better in a 19-6 loss at Winnipeg. There they were two-point favorites. This is the third week in a row playing on the road. It comes vs. an Als squad that had Week 1 off and has since split a pair of contests on the road. They won the first game 30-13 as five point underdogs over Edmonton. But then they fell 28-22 at Calgary as a five point favorite. This is the first time playing at home and they are 5-0 the last five games they’ve been off a loss. That goes back two years though, so you might as well throw it out. Hamilton trying to avoid its first 0-3 start in four years seems more significant as does their 7-4 overall win streak over the Als. They are 5-1 in their last six trips to Molson Stadium. However, the Ti-Cats have only scored 14 points in their two games this season. Dane Evans will start at quarterback Thursday behind an offensive line that has struggled. Starter Masoli got hurt against Saskatchewan. Montreal’s defense, flagged for 16 penalties a week ago, should play a “cleaner” game this week. Under is 8-2 in Hamilton’s previous 10 road games. It’s 35-17-1 in Montreal’s last 53 East Division games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-27-21 | Reds -139 v. Marlins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati knows how to beat Miami. They’ve come out ahead 10 of the last 11 times they’ve faced the Marlins. The teams had not faced each other in 2021 prior to last weekend when the Reds won all four home games. To be fair, lots of teams beat up on the last place Marlins. The Fish were on an eight-game slide entering Wednesday. They’ve since beaten Washington two times, 4-3 and 7-5. But we don’t expect them to solve the Big Red Machine Friday night. The Reds won in Milwaukee Thursday afternoon 5-1. So with San Diego losing, they have a two-game lead for the second Wild Card. Sonny Gray pitched a strong game yesterday. We expect Wade Miley to do the same thing tonight. Miley has a 15-8 team start record and has won his last six decisions. He leads the entire team in WAR. In six career starts against Miami, Miley has a 1.86 ERA. He’s simply a better pitcher than Miami’s Zach Thompson, who has seen his ERA steadily rise all year. It’s now up to 3.12. Thompson’s team start record in his last eight starts is 1-7. The Marlins likely won’t have CF Brinson for tonight’s opener after he sprained his thumb last night. It doesn’t look good when you are 14-25 vs. left-handed starters and facing Miley, who not only just beat them last week but has also given up only seven runs in his last four starts. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-27-21 | Blue Jays -164 v. Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto played yesterday. Detroit did not. Both teams are off losses though. The Blue Jays lost at home to the White Sox 10-7 on Thursday. The Tigers lost 3-2 at St. Louis Wednesday afternoon. The Tigers may have a slight edge when it comes to the schedule, but Toronto has more talent. Now detractors would quickly point to last weekend when the Blue Jays lost two of the three home games vs. the Tigers. But they are still in playoff contention. They are 5.5 games back of the Wild Card with 36 games left. Detroit is six games below .500 and playing out the string. Friday’s pitching matchup definitely favors Toronto. They’ve got Steven Matz and he’s allowed only six runs in four August starts. Half of those runs he allowed were unearned. He pitched well vs. Detroit when he faced them Sunday. He went six innings and the only run he allowed was Miguel Cabrera’s 500th career homer. Matt Manning has started three games for the Tigers this month. In the first of the three, he allowed the same number of runs that Matz had allowed all month long. Manning also walked four batters in his most recent start, a season-high. Matz has pitched better on the road this year. Toronto is 9-4 off its previous 13 losses. They are on a 23-8 run vs. teams with losing records. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-26-21 | Yankees -109 v. A's | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY The Wild Card race in the American League has changed dramatically over the last 10 games. The Yankees are 10-0 while the A’s 2-8. The Yankees will be looking for their 12th straight win tonight. This sudden surge has them holding the top Wild Card spot. The A’s, losers of four in a row, are 1.5 games back of Boston for the second Wild Card. It wasn’t that long ago that Oakland seemed like a shoo-in for the postseason. Right now, we don’t see how you bet against this Yankees team. They’ve got Jameson Taillon set to start Thursday’s game. He has not lost a decision since May 31st, going 7-0 in 14 starts with a 3.21 ERA. The team is 23-5 in the last 28 games, making them the hottest team in the majors right now. Oakland has scored only five runs in the last three games. Kaprielian has been good for the A’s, but Taillon remembers June 18th, a game the two faced off and Oakland won 5-3. The two had pretty similar numbers that day. Though the A’s won that one, the Yankees won the other two games of that series. These are two teams going in different directions right now. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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08-26-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We cashed the Under AND the Brewers yesterday in this matchup, but today we’re taking the Over. The first two games of this series saw the Brewers send out Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, their two top pitchers. Today they are forced to settle on Brett Anderson. Anderson’s ERA over his past three starts is 6.59. His WHIP is 1.61. He’s lost his last two starts. In 10 career starts vs. Cincinnati, Anderson is 4-3 with a 4.13 ERA. The Reds put up 5.0 runs/game when they are opposed by a left-handed starter. If they can score four runs off Burnes, they are certainly capable of doing the same or more vs. Anderson. The Brewers may have only scored four runs last night, but the three previous games saw them cross the plate a total of 23 times. They are 3-0 against Sonny Gray this season and that’s who they’ll be facing this afternoon. Milwaukee comes in averaging 5.1 runs/game when they are up against a right-handed starter. The Reds also have bullpen issues. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-25-21 | Dodgers -142 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers beat the slumping Padres 5-2 last night. Looking at the NL West standings, there is now an 11.5 game gap between the two teams. That’s not what the San Diego faithful expected from 2021. They were supposed to challenge LA for division supremacy. Instead, they are a bit of an afterthought in third place. They may not even make the playoffs as they’re locked into a tight race with Cincinnati for the second Wild Card spot. They enter today one game behind the Reds. As bad as the Padres need to win here, the Dodgers aren’t going to lie down. They are trying to catch the Giants for first place. The Dodgers should still be considered the best team in MLB. They have won 14 of 16. The Padres have lost 10 of 12. San Diego leads the season series 7-4, but the Dodgers have won the season series each of the last 10 years. It was a 5-0 game heading into the bottom of the eighth last night. The Padres are just 4-11 as home underdogs of +125 to +175. Walker Buehler is set to start this game for Los Angeles. He is 13-2 this year with a 2.11 ERA. That ERA is tops in the National League. His only losses this year were games where the Dodgers were shutout. Buehler is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA vs. San Diego all-time. The Padres’ starting rotation is in tatters right now and it would take a near perfect effort from Blake Snell to get the job done here. We don’t see that happening. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-25-21 | Reds v. Brewers -170 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee rallied past Cincinnati last night for a 7-4 win. The prior six meetings had all been won by the road team. More importantly for the Brewers, the win stretched their lead in the NL Central to 8.5 games. The Reds aren’t going to catch them, but the good news is that the Wild Card is still an option. They currently lead the Padres by one game in the race for the second WC spot. The Brewers played “small ball” on Tuesday night, scoring three runs on sacrifice flies. Reds’ hitters did surprisingly well against Brewers’ ace Corbin Burnes. But look for them to struggle vs. Brandon Woodruff tonight. Woodruff did have a rough outing last week in St. Louis and his team start record since 7/25 is just 1-4. However, Woodruff has allowed only two runs in two starts vs. the Reds this year. His 2.48 ERA is still among the very best in the league. Cincinnati doesn’t do nearly the amount of scoring on the road that they do at home. Luis Castillo has not had the greatest season for them on the mound. His TSR is 10-16 overall and 4-9 on the road. A 5.27 ERA in those 13 road starts certainly helps explain that record. Milwaukee is 30 games over .500 since May 21st. They will win tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-25-21 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER So in addition to liking the Brewers, we also like this game to go Under. In the other writeup, the exploits of Brandon Woodruff were detailed. The Over has hit in each of his last three starts. But that’s atypical. The Under had gone 13-6-2 in his first 21 starts. The Under is also 6-2 when the Reds face the Brewers here in Milwaukee this season. Yesterday was one of the two Overs. But even though we like Milwaukee to win here, we don’t see them scoring seven runs again. This is a team that averages just 4.3 runs/contest at home. They bat .221 at American Family Field. They will win this game because of Woodruff. Willy Adames and Eduardo Escobar, two very productive hitters, are both out of the Brewers lineup today. The Under is 38-18-4 in Milwaukee’s previous 60 games against teams that have winning records. The Under is also 37-13-4 in Cincinnati’s last 54 Wednesday games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-24-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -122 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Based on the fact they have scored 117 more runs than they have allowed, you’d think Toronto would have one of the best records in baseball. But they don’t. They are stuck in fourth place in the American League East with a 65-58 record. They did win yesterday though, 2-1 over American League Central leading Chicago. The Blue Jays are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card and need to jump three teams. The White Sox postseason future is much more secure as they lead their division by nine games. So Toronto should be the team playing with a greater sense of urgency in this series. It also says a lot that they’d be favored to beat a team like the White Sox. Tonight’s pitching matchup has a lot to do with it. Jose Berrios, obtained in a trade with the Twins at the deadline, is no stranger to facing Chicago. He’s 12-4 in his career against them and has a 2.91 ERA. For the White Sox, starter Dylan Cease has never faced Toronto. Cease did allow four walks and two home runs in his most recent outing. The White Sox are only a .500 team on the road (30-30). They are 14-38 L52 as road underdogs. The way Toronto won last night’s game, scoring the game-winning run on a wild pitch, should give them some momentum heading into today. They are 12-4 L16 home games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Seattle pulled the “rabbit out of the hat” yet again on Monday. They rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth and beat Oakland 5-3. It was a crushing loss for the A’s, who are now on the “outside looking in” when it comes to the Wild Card race. The blown lead comes on the heels of the last series with the Mariners, which saw the A’s lose three games by one run. The Mariners have thrived in close games all season. Oakland has not. At least recently they haven’t. Before yesterday’s blown lead, the A’s lost two straight one-run decisions to the Giants. The last 12 runs they’ve allowed, going back to Friday, have all been via the home run. It’s probably good then that Cole Irvin is starting Tuesday afternoon. Irvin not only has a 3.13 ERA in his L10 starts, but has only given up a total of three home runs during that stretch. Seattle starter Chris Flexen may have a 16-7 team start record, but Irvin has a lower ERA and WHIP. The Mariners have won 9 of 12 but only one of those wins was by more than two runs and not in extra innings. They have a penchant for getting blown out. That’s what we think will happen today. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-23-21 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOU -1.5 The last series between Houston and Kansas City produced some very shocking results. It was the Royals that won three of the four games. Houston’s only win came in the last game of the series and they had to battle back from an early 3-0 deficit to win in extra innings. That series was last week, so it’s fresh in the Astros’ players minds. The weekend went better for them. They took two of three from Seattle. The two wins were dominant: 12-3 and 15-1. The loss, which was yesterday, saw them blow an early 2-0 advantage and lose 6-3 in 11 innings. So it was basically the reverse of the previous Kansas City series. We really like Houston to start this series with a win. Greinke has 1.89 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts. He only gave up one run when faced the Royals last Wednesday. Greinke has 2.68 ERA in six starts vs. KC, whom he pitched for from 2004-10. The Royals followed up the successful series with the Astros by sweeping the Cubs. So they have won six of their last seven games. But there is a 17.5 game difference in the standings between these teams. Rookie Daniel Lynch has a 5.12 ERA. His three road starts have produced a very high WHIP (1.61) as well. Kansas City has just three win streaks longer than three games all year. One was in April. Can’t see Houston losing to them again. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-23-21 | Rockies +117 v. Cubs | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Something is going to have to give here as the Rockies are 14-45 on the road, but the Cubs have lost a franchise record 13 straight home games. In spite of the poor road record, we’re citing Colorado as they at least have some positive momentum coming off a 5-1 homestand. They did lose Sunday to Arizona, but that was after five straight wins with five or more runs scored every time out. The Cubs are 3-16 overall in August and were just swept by the Royals. The mass exodus of talent at the trade deadline has turned them into one of the worst teams in the league. Kyle Hendricks has been their saving grace this year. But it seems as if Hendricks should feel fortunate to be tied for the MLB lead in wins. He has a 4.04 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The last time he pitched at Wrigley, Hendricks gave up nine runs and lasted just four innings. There have been five games this year where Hendricks has surrendered at least five runs. Four of those were at home. Senzatela hasn’t won on the road this year, but he is coming off two straight quality outings. The Rockies are on a 27-14 run against teams with losing records. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | Top | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF The key to this one is the 49ers are having a QB competition while the Chargers don’t have much to look forward to under center once Justin Herbert departs. Herbert is better than either of the 49ers options at QB - Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance - but he’s obviously not going to play a ton tonight. Between the two, Garoppolo and Lance should see a majority of the snaps for the Niners. That’s what it’s all about in these preseason games, knowing which QBs will be playing. The Niners lost their first preseason game, 19-16 to Kansas City, which should have them more motivated than Los Angeles who won 13-6 over the Rams last week. The Rams didn’t even bother to play their starters, so it could be a bit of a “shock” for the Chargers who will be facing non-backups for the first time in 2021. Lay the points in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-22-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAA +1.5 (RUN LINE) Cleveland looks to sweep LA Sunday night. They have held the Angels to just two runs in the first two games. After a 9-1 win on Friday, things were a “touch” closer on Saturday afternoon. But the Indians still prevailed by a comfortable 5-1 margin. This is now the first time in August that the Tribe has won two in a row. Both they and the Angels are now one game below .500. It’s difficult to see either team getting back into real playoff contention, but at least today’s winner can exit the weekend at the Mendoza Line. It’s obviously been a tough series for the road team, but we are confident that they can keep the game within a run tonight. Indians starter Cal Quantrill has seen four of his last seven starts decided by a one-run margin. The team has lost three of those four one-run games. They are 3-9 in Quantrill’s last 12 starts with five of the losses coming by a run. Cleveland is just 25-34 after a win this season. But the big key to this game is that it’s being played in Williamsport, PA, not Cleveland. It’s part of the Little League World Series festivities. That’s a break for the Angels, who start a lefty - Jose Suarez - in this spot. Suarez pitched well Monday despite taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. Besides a first inning homer, Suarez allowed only three other hits. He also struck out six in five innings. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Broncos -5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER We took Denver last week and they won 33-6 over a banged up Minnesota team. This week they are in Seattle to play a Seahawks team that doesn’t seem to have much interest in these preseason games. Pete Carroll’s team lost 20-7 to Las Vegas in Week 1. They lost the first down battle 26-9. The most impressive thing about the Broncos’ first preseason game was that they didn’t even play their defensive starters. Vic Fangio has said starters will play this week. The Broncos have a very good defense, in case you forgot. The QB battle between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater ensures that the offense should stay humming for four quarters. We will lay the points in this one. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-21-21 | Braves v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Yes, we’re gonna do it. At some point this morning, you probably heard that not only has Baltimore lost 16 consecutive games but all 16 losses have been by two or more runs. So that’s an 0-16 run on the run line that they are on as well. They are starting Matt Harvey on Saturday. Certainly things are not looking rosy for the home team in Camden Yards. But we are willing to take a flier and say the Orioles can at least stay within a run today. It’s extremely difficult to keep losing games by multiple runs like this. Harvey ended July with an 18-plus inning scoreless streak, so he’s capable of keeping Atlanta in check. The Braves only scored three times Friday night. They are only 4-12 in interleague play this season after yesterday’s win. Drew Smyly should feel very thankful for his team start record because his own numbers are not that great. He has a 1.54 WHIP on the road. He also has a 5.14 ERA in the last three starts. He’s only gone four innings in four of his last five starts. The Braves have won Smyly’s last five starts. But the last two wins both came by just a run. Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Falcons +5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Falcons sat their starters last week in a 23-3 loss to the Titans. We expect a better showing this week in Miami. AJ McCarron and Felipe Franks, the two quarterbacks, can’t be any worse than they were last week. We will attribute their performance to “being the first game.” Tonight could be our first look at TE Kyle Pitts. The Atlanta defense was good against the Titans. The scoring drives they did allow mostly were a byproduct of short fields. Dorian Etheridge has been a standout. Miami got off to a good start last week, jumping out to a 13-0 lead on Chicago. But then they fell victim to Justin Fields and ended up losing 20-13. There are some question marks with the Dolphins offensive line right now. We just don’t think it’s wise to lay this many points with Miami in a preseason affair. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-21-21 | Ottawa +10.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OTTAWA Ottawa is 1-0 and off a bye. The REDBLACKS were 16-12 winners in Week 1 as they downed Edmonton as a seven-point road underdog. They are getting even more points this week from a Saskatchewan team that has roared to a 2-0 start. The Roughriders have played twice at home and beaten British Columbia 33-29 and Hamilton 30-8. They have not opened a season 3-0 since 2013. While the team has won nine in a row in Regina, we don’t see them winning this one by double digits. In last week’s CFL play, the team off a bye (Montreal) won 30-13. You can’t draw too many conclusions about one game, but the bye definitely doesn’t hurt the REDBLACKS here. The Roughriders may lead the CFL in scoring but they are just sixth in total offense. That can’t be sustained. We expect Ottawa to hold them to a season-low in points and stay within the number. Play on OTTAWA AAA |
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08-21-21 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Dodgers look to be unstoppable right now as they’ve won eight straight games. But we should point out that five of those wins came by one run. It was 3-2 over the Mets on Friday. That was the same number of runs that we saw scored in Thursday’s game, which was a 4-1 win by the home team. We think the Dodgers will come out swinging today. It’s crucial to remember that they are the NL’s highest scoring team. Only two other National League teams are within 40 runs of their season total, those being the Reds and Braves. They should put some runs on the board here vs. Rich Hil, a former teammate of theirs. Hill typically doesn’t go past the fifth inning. The Mets’ bullpen has an ERA of 4.70 on the road, so the more we see of them, the more likely it is the Dodgers might put this one Over all by themselves. Mets’ road games average about two more runs/game than Mets’ home games. Max Scherzer, now 3-0 in three starts for the Dodgers, was supported with 14 runs when he started against the Mets last week. He allowed two runs. We think he will give up more today. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-21 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 10* on OVER These are two teams having bad weeks. Philadelphia was swept by Arizona. San Diego was swept by Colorado. But if there’s one bit of solace for the Padres it’s that they are the ones who get to head back home. They have a 40-24 home mark. But we feel that there’s a better chance this game goes Over as opposed to the Padres winning. We know it sounds strange in light of recent results. The Padres didn’t do much scoring at Coors Field despite it being a hitters park. But Matt Moore is a pitcher they should do some damage against. Moore’s ERA this year for the Phillies is 6.05. His WHIP is 1.545. We probably shouldn’t be fooled by his last start, which saw him turn in six shutout innings. He’d given up six runs in back to back starts before that. Moore was very efficient in the last start, only needing 76 pitches to get through six innings. But we’re not likely to see that kind of efficiency today and that means more of the Phillies bullpen, a group which isn’t very good. Blake Snell has been one of San Diego’s most effective starters lately. But his season-long numbers (4.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) suggest that isn’t likely to continue. The Over is on a 14-5 Run in Phillies’ road games and 16-7 run in Padres’ home games. These teams will both put a decent number of runs on the board Friday night. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-21 | Giants v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The A’s were able to scratch and claw their way to a 5-4 win yesterday in Chicago. That ended a four-game losing streak. Now in come the Giants, the team with the best record in the majors, and they had Thursday off. While off a loss, the Giants are 9-2 their last 11 games. They already average nearly five full runs per contest and now they’ll get to substitute a DH in place of the pitcher in the batting order. So we should this game go Over the total. James Kaprielian, today’s starter for Oakland, has seen his previous three starts all go Over. Kaprielian has pitched better at home than on the road. However, the last time he faced a National League lineup, the results were poor. He gave up six runs in San Diego and that was without the designated hitter rule in play. Alex Wood has an ERA approaching 6.00 his last three starts. So we expect him to struggle as well. Wood has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four trips to the mound. The Over is on a 7-3 run for Oakland, at home, following a road trip of seven or more days. San Francisco is on a 26-12-1 Over run in interleague play. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-21 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team OVER 34.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We know all about the Under trend that’s taken hold of this preseason. Including the Hall of Fame Game, 15 of the 18 preseason games played thus far have gone Under. Last night, we thought we’d bucked the trend as the Patriots scored 35 points. But the Eagles scored zero. Undaunted, we’re going to try and buck the trend here again with Cincinnati-Washington. Second year QB Burrow won’t suit up for the Bengals, but expect to see some of RB Mixon and WR Chase. The Bengals have one of the best receiver groups in the league. Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmer will be throwing to them. Allen is probably going to start. Washington’s defense was tremendous in 2020. But the starters didn’t see the field much in the first preseason game. The backups didn’t play well in a 22-13 loss to New England. So Cincinnati should top the 19 points they scored in last week’s upset of Tampa Bay. Ryan Fitzpatrick may be left in a bit longer this week for the Washington offense. Kyle Allen will also get on the field for the first time in 2021. Taylor Heinicke and Steven Montez both led touchdown drives last week. Cincinnati’s starting defense isn’t all that good, so the backup situation is pretty dire. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-19-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE -1.5 Milwaukee is simply a better team than St. Louis. They have been all season. So a pair of two-run victories in this series shouldn’t be surprising to you. It was a low-scoring game Tuesday, 2-0, but we said to take the Over last night and thanks to the 10th inning that was a winner. The Brewers won 6-4. For the third and final game of the series, we are going with Milwaukee -1.5 on the run line. They are 74-47 this year, 42-20 on the road. Dominating the rest of the NL Central, they have a 40-19 division record. They are 14-1 in road games when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. Not only do the Brewers have the most road wins in baseball, they are winning on the road by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.18 ERA plus a 0.91 WHIP, which has him among the very best pitchers in baseball this season. Jon Lester used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that was a long time ago. In 2021, Lester’s ERA is 5.32. He’s struggled since coming over from Washington. The Brewers have won eight of their last nine games. Seven of those wins have been by two or more runs. Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |