Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-19-19 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Boston-NY Islanders The Islanders have the division lead in the Metro, but they will certainly be more than tested tonight by Boston, who is the second place team in the Atlantic. Both teams are off one-goal decisions over the weekend. The Bruins beat Columbus 2-1 while New York beat Minnesota 3-2. But perhaps the most interesting part of this battle is that it pits two of the top three teams in the league in goals allowed against one another. The Islanders lead the league with an average of just 2.33 goals allowed per game. But the Bruins are right behind, allowing just 2.53. So expecting this to be a low-scoring game sounds quite reasonable. In the last four games, the Islanders have only given up five goals. All four games finished Under. Boston is 10-4 Under this year playing on the road when the total is 5.5. They are also 23-12 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. Play UNDER Boston-NY Islanders AAA |
|||||||
03-18-19 | Jets -170 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on WINNIPEG A complete mismatch here as the Jets invade LA to play the Kings. One team is fighting for a division title while the other is a total non-contender that has been at the bottom of the standings all year. Winnipeg is obviously the former as they can increase their lead in the Central to three points over Nashville with a win here. It's a win that should come pretty easily considering Los Angeles has won only two games since February 7th. In their last four home games, the Kings have been outscored 14-5. No team has scored fewer goals or been outscored by a larger margin. Winnipeg is off back to back impressive wins as they beat Boston and San Jose. The next three games will all be on the road before hosting Nashville in a huge Central Division showdown. This one and the next game (at Anaheim) should be an easy four points. We really like the Jets tonight. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
|||||||
03-18-19 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 224 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Golden State-San Antonio San Antonio has won nine in a row, but will be hosting Golden State tonight on ESPN. The Spurs win streak makes this quite the marquee matchup. We actually give them a slight edge given their incredible 13-0 ATS record this season when playing at home with revenge for a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points. The Warriors killed the Spurs last month, winning 141-102 out in Oakland. Don't see the Warriors coming close to that number tonight. Also, Under has been the way to go with both of these teams lately. Eight of the Spurs last nine games have stayed Under, including one we played, Saturday's night's win over Portland. Golden State is 7-0 Under its last seven games. They just held OKC to 88 points in a tremendous defensive effort. This will be a low-scoring affair in our eyes as the Under is 4-1 the past five meetings here in San Antonio. Play UNDER Golden State-San Antonio AAA |
|||||||
03-18-19 | Jazz -4 v. Wizards | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Utah comes to Washington D.C. in search of a win and should get it at the expense of the struggling Wizards. The Jazz have won and covered each of their last three games. While all three games were against lesser opponents, they did win by double digits every time. All three wins were by at least 16 points, including a wire to wire beatdown of Brooklyn on Saturday. Washington has actually gone 7-1 ATS its last eight games and just put up 135 points in a surprising performance against Memphis two days ago. But it's been a long time since they were able to beat the Jazz. The last five meetings have all gone Utah's way and this one will too, by a rather comfortable margin, considering how poor the Wizards are defensively. Utah has covered 7 of its last 9 games vs. teams with losing records. Play on UTAH AAA |
|||||||
03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 228 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Utah-Washington Also playing the total of this one. Given Washington's last game ended up having a final score of 135-128, it should be fairly obvious which way we'll be going. Yes, Utah is a very good defensive team. But so is Memphis, who the Wizards just scored 135 points against. The Grizzlies, believe it or not, actually came into that game leading the league in scoring defense. So while they may not put up as many points tonight, the Wiz should certainly be able to score plenty. So should Utah, who we have winning this game comfortably. The Jazz have scored at least 114 points in three straight games, all of those being games where they both won and covered. All three games actually went Under too, thanks to the Jazz allowing 97, 100 and 98 points. Washington will definitely score more than that tonight, but will also give up their fair share too. In seven of the last eight games, the Wizards have allowed 112 or more points. Play OVER Utah-Washington AAA |
|||||||
03-17-19 | Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Pittsburgh Look for this to be a wild and high-scoring affair. We've reached the point where every team basically has just games left to play and the Penguins have to be feeling a lot better about their playoff prospects while the Flyers should be feeling worse about theirs. Pittsburgh did lose Saturday afternoon, 5-1 to St. Louis. But despite the home loss, they are still third in the Metro (87 points) and are seven clear of ninth place Montreal. Philly is now eight points out of the Wild Card race after dropping back to back games. They allowed a combined 12 goals to Washington and Toronto. We had the Over in the game vs. the Leafs, which was a 7-6 loss. Should be a similar game tonight as this will be the third straight top seven offense the Flyers have had to face. Before yesterday's loss, the Penguins had scored 14 goals in three games, all wins. The Flyers haven't seen many Unders since the All Star Break as the Over is 9-2-1 their past 12 games. Again, they scored six goals in their last game and the Pens just gave up five yesterday. Play OVER Philadelphia-Pittsburgh AAA |
|||||||
03-17-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -4.5 | Top | 69-57 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Houston blew the cover late on Saturday, letting a double digit lead slip away against Memphis. They had kept the Tigers in check the entire game, never allowing them to get above 25% from the field! But the Cougars had their own scoreless stretch, for about four minutes, as they missed 10 straight shots and that let Memphis pull within three. As upset as we are about Houston not covering yesterday (we had them), it was still an impressive win when you consider the defensive performance and that it was a true road game (tournament is being played in Memphis). Memphis had lost only twice at home all season. Today they face a Cincinnati team that also won by three Saturday. The Bearcats beat Wichita State, coming back from a halftime deficit. Houston beat Cincy twice in the regular season, winning by 7 and 16. They are the better team here and unlike yesterday won't have to deal with a hostile crowd and it's a shorter number. The Bearcats have covered the spread just one time in their last 10 games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
03-17-19 | Hornets +4 v. Heat | Top | 75-93 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE Miami really let one slip away Friday night. They were facing Milwaukee and up by 20 points at halftime. This was at home too. The Bucks were 1-100 SU all-time when trailing by 20+ at the half, including 0-77 on the road. The Heat were 51-0 SU all-time when leading by that much at half, here at home. Guess what? They lost 113-98, becoming the 1st team in league history to be up 20 at the half and still lose by 15. It's going to be very difficult to get over that loss. Now in comes Charlotte, who directly gained from the Heat's pain. Also on Friday, Charlotte beat Washington to pull within one game of Miami, who holds the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets have some revenge on the mind Sunday as they just lost at home to Miami, 91-84, on March 6th. It's important to note that the Heat actually play worse at home (where they have a losing SU record) as opposed to the road. They are just 4-9 ATS the last 13 games at home. They are 2-9 ATS their previous 11 division games. We say to take the points here. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
|||||||
03-17-19 | Yale -4.5 v. Harvard | Top | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE One of the oldest rivalries in collegiate sports is renewed here and the stakes couldn't be much higher. Yale and Harvard will play Sunday with the winner moving on to represent the Ivy League in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams tied for the regular season title, both finishing 10-4 SU in conference play, but Yale was three games better overall. However, the key was Harvard winning both of the regular season games. That gave them the #1 seed entering this Tournament. It also gives Yale double revenge and note they are the betting favorite Sunday. Yale beat Princeton Sunday in the semifinals by a score of 83-77. They led by 12 at halftime and won easily. Harvard had a little more trouble against Penn, even though their final margin of victory (8) was actually larger than Yale's. The Crimson only led by two at halftime though. We think the oddsmakers are making it pretty clear that they think Yale is the better team here and we're inclined to agree. Harvard did sweep the season series, but they also had three OT wins in Ivy League play. Yale is basically +8.0 PPG vs. the Ivy League while Harvard is less than +2.0. Play on YALE AAA |
|||||||
03-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on UNDER Blazers-Spurs Both teams played last night. Both games went Under the total. Portland won theirs 122-110 (yes that was an Under) as they beat New Orleans, who didn't have Anthony Davis. San Antonio had no problem either, beating the Knicks 109-83. For the Spurs, it was the seventh Under in the last eight games. Portland has gone Under in two straight after five consecutive Overs. The Blazers have scored more than 120 points in four straight, but that streak figures to end this evening in the Alamo. The Over has cashed in 23 of the previous 31 meetings, including all three this season. But that changes tonight with both in the second game of a back to back. Portland is 7-2 Under in this situation this season. Play UNDER Blazers-Spurs AAA |
|||||||
03-16-19 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Capitals-Lightning We know it might be a little scary to bet the Under on these teams, let alone when they're playing one another, but the total is too high for such an important late season matchup. Tampa Bay has been coasting towards another Atlantic Division title for awhile now and barring something unforeseen, they will be the top overall seed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Washington is trying to win the Metropolitan, which is a much tighter race. They lead going into Saturday, but by only two points over the Islanders and four over the Penguins. The Caps allowed five goals in a loss to Pittsburgh before scoring five in a win over the Flyers this week. Tampa Bay has scored 11 goals its last two games. But despite these gaudy numbers, we're still going Under in the first meeting between these teams since last year's Eastern Conference Final. Only one of the seven games in that series saw more than six goals scored. Washington is 15-8 this season following a win by two or more goals. Tampa Bay is giving up only 2.4 goals per game on home ice. Play UNDER Washington-Tampa Bay AAA |
|||||||
03-16-19 | Grizzlies +3 v. Wizards | Top | 128-135 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS Memphis is catching points and catching Washington in the second game of a back to back tonight. That's a combo that works in their favor. The Wizards lost last night, falling 116-110 to Charlotte right here at home. Bradley Beal scored 40 points, but the Wizards were down 14 at the end of the first quarter and 17 heading into the fourth. Memphis is rested as they've been off for two days and likely motivated considering they were torched for 132 points by Atlanta of all teams in their last game. Going into that game, the Grizzlies were #1 in the league in scoring defense. It was the most points they allowed in any game all year. A bounce back seems likely given the way they had been playing. Memphis is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS this month with wins over both Portland and Utah. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
|||||||
03-16-19 | Memphis v. Houston -8 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Memphis is quite fortunate the the American Tournament is being played on its home court, the FedEx Forum. The Tigers have been beaten only twice this year at home. Yesterday saw them ride a wave of momentum as they dominated likely NCAA Tourney team UCF, winning by a score of 79-55. But today they run into the best team that the American has to offer, that being top seed Houston, who has lost just two times all year period. The Cougars destroyed UConn on Friday, winning 84-45 as 11.5-point favoirtes. They beat Memphis in the lone regular season matchup by a score of 90-77. While that was at home, we think this team is more than capable of doing the same on the road. The Cougars are 9-1 ATS this season if they allowed 25 points or less in the first half of their previous games. They held UConn to exactly 25. Then they allowed only 20 in the second half, holding the Huskies scoreless for 13 minutes at one point. Houston is well rested as no starter played more than 30 minutes Friday. Memphis is playing its third game in three days. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
03-16-19 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE While the lower half of the draw featured an upset (Minnesota beating Purdue), the top half of the Big 10 Tournament features the expected semfinal battle between #1 seed Michigan State and #4 seed Wisconsin. The Spartans won yesterday, beating Ohio State 77-70. They did not cover as double digit favorites. Wisconsin ousted Nebraska 66-62, but they didn't cover either. Both teams got off to fast starts Friday before failing to cover. Michigan State won the only regular season meeting, 62-59, and that was in Madison. Of interest is the fact the Spartans have now scored more than 75 points in three consecutive games. They are 10-1 ATS when doing that this season. Of the two teams, they looked better yesterday. They were up by as many as 21 in the second half. Nick Ward is now back after missing five games due to a broken hand. He contributed eight points in 14 minutes against Ohio State. We feel MSU is the better team here and they'll show it today. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
|||||||
03-15-19 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 229 | Top | 121-128 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Bulls-Clippers Too high of a total for a game involving the Bulls, who rank last in the league in offensive efficiency and are averaging only 105 points per game. Obviously, it's quite possible the Clippers could "go off" tonight. But will they? We think not. They only scored 104 points in their last game, which was a blowout loss to Portland. Also, were this game to get out of hand, it's very likely that scoring would grind to a halt from LA's perspective. The Under is 4-0 the last four times the Clippers have taken the court off a double digit loss at home. Chicago hasn't scored more than 108 points in any of its last five games. Opponents field goal percentage has been a concern of late, but we project them as being better on the defensive end tonight. Play UNDER Chicago-LA Clippers AAA |
|||||||
03-15-19 | Duke -3 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DUKE To say North Carolina was "gifted" a couple wins over Duke in the regular season might be too much. But you can't deny the Tar Heels caught a massive break in each game. The first one was the infamous Zion Williamson injury and an obviously shell-shocked Blue Devils team went down in defeat, 88-72. Incredibly, the rematch saw another major Duke injury take place early in the game. This one was to Marques Bolden. The result was another loss for the Blue Devils. Bolden will not play in the ACC Tournament, but in case you hadn't heard (unlikely), Williamson is back and he was awesome in last night's 84-72 win over Syracuse. The freshman made all 13 shots he attempted and pulled down 14 rebounds as well. All shoe problems appear rectified. The idea that Duke is going to lose to North Carolina three times this year seems far-fetched to us. All we need to do is lay a small spread here and I think the Blue Devils are on a mission to prove they still deserve a #1 seed. With Williamson in the lineup this year, Duke has lost just one time in regulation. It was by two points to Gonzaga, in Maui. This isn't Maui. It's the ACC Tournament, an event Coach K has owned through the years. Play on DUKE AAA |
|||||||
03-15-19 | Colorado v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Colorado has had to play each of the last two days, putting them at a distinct disadvantage here in the Pac 12 semifinals against top seeded Washington. The Huskies had a closer than expected call (for some!) against USC yesterday afternoon, but we took the underdog in that one, noting the Trojans were a better team than most realized. They showed that by sticking with favored UW despite the Huskies playing very well. UW made 13 of 28 three-pointers and led by double digits in the second half, before USC went on a late run. Because the final score ended up being close, we're getting a relative gift from the oddsmakers today in only having to lay a small number against a team play for a third time in as many days. Washington is very good defensively, ranking inside the top 20 nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions. They beat Colorado in both regular season games, winning by seven and nine points. The Buffaloes were hardly impressive in Wednesday's five point win over California. They got off to a great start yesterday vs. Oregon State, building a lead as big as 21 points. But they almost blew it and we think they're officially set to run out of gas tonight. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
03-15-19 | Ducks v. Avalanche -190 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on COLORADO We don't think that whomever ends up as the two Wild Cards in the Western Conference will be a threat to go deep into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. But someone has to grab the two spots. Right now, 77 points is the threshold, so Colorado (72 points) is really in must-win territory the rest of the way. Good news for the Avs tonight as they are catching Anaheim in the second night of back to back road games. Thursday didn't go well for the Ducks as they lost 6-1 at Arizona. Tonight's game doesn't figure to go any better. The Ducks have scored the fewest goals in the league this year. Having been shutout twice in their last three games, including the last one, look for the Avs to break loose tonight. They're well rested, having last taken the ice on Monday. From a situational perspective, this is one of the bigger mismatches we've see in the NHL in awhile. It's a spot Colorado MUST take advantage of, playing at home. Anaheim is one of the worst teams in the NHL. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
03-15-19 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Toronto This promises to be a high-scoring game. Both teams gave up five goals in their last game. In the case of Toronto, they allowed four in the first period, the first time they've done that at home since 2008. I was on Chicago, so that was a pretty sweet winner even though it got a little interesting late in the game. (The Maple Leafs ended up battling back with four goals of their own). Philly was never really in their game last night vs. Washington, which ended up being a 5-2 loss. Seven of the last nine Flyers games have gone Over the total. It's eight of 10 for Toronto, who has let in 11 goals in just the last two games. The Maple Leafs average 3.6 goals per game at home to begin with and put up six the only other time they hosted Philly this season. Both teams should score at least three times tonight. Play OVER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA |
|||||||
03-15-19 | Florida v. LSU -2 | Top | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LSU Florida turned in a strong second half performance in beating Arkansas 66-50 on Thursday afternoon. The Razorbacks failed to make a single basket over the game's final 7:54. The Gators "reward" for winning that game is a quarterfinal date with the SEC's top seed LSU. These teams split a pair of games in the regular season. Both went to overtime and both times the road team emerged victorious. With LSU head coach Will Wade on leave (due to the NCAA scandal), we think public sentiment will be against the Tigers. But don't make that mistake. LSU has been defying skeptics this entire season. They are 26-5 overall, 16-2 in SEC play and have won five straight games (5-0 ATS too!). Their two conference losses were a one-point loss to Arkansas and the OT loss to Florida. Florida had lost three in a row before yesterday's win. LSU is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games where the line is three points or less. Obviously, the fact the Tigers had off yesterday while Florida had to play a game is a huge benefit. Play on LSU. AAA |
|||||||
03-14-19 | Predators -185 v. Kings | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on NASHVILLE It's rare to find Nashville off a loss or Los Angeles off a win. But both situations are present here as those two teams meet in Staples Center Thursday night. The Predators, who are in first place in the Central, have actually lost two in a row. One was at home to Carolina and the other was at Anaheim. The likelihood of them losing three straight and back to back games against two of the worst teams in the league seems small. The Kings last won back to back games in early February when they won three straight, all on the road, two of them coming in overtime. Since then they've lost 13 out of 15 games. It was Anaheim they beat Sunday. They have not beaten a team in playoff contention since prior to the All Star Break. The Kings are second to last in the league in goals scored while Nashville is 5th in goals allowed. This should be an easy two points for the Preds. Play on NASHVILLE AAA |
|||||||
03-14-19 | Canadiens v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Montreal-NY Islanders The Habs and Islanders, especially the Islanders, are two of the biggest surprise teams in the league this year. Few thought either would be playoff bound coming into the season, let alone the possibility of both making it. Both are coming off wins and between them, they allowed just one goal. The Islanders shutout Columbus 2-0 and are in second place in the Metropolitan with 87 points. Montreal beat Detroit 3-1 to move into a tie with Columbus for the final Wild Card spot. So this is a big game. The Islanders lead the league in goals allowed with only 168. That's 12 fewer than every other team but one (Dallas). Montreal is middle of the pack in goals scored and goals allowed (14th in both categories), but ranks dead last on the power play, which is a problem. Because they rank only 20th in goals per game, NY is one of the top Under teams in the league. The Canadiens will have Carey Price in goal tonight and he has solid career numbers vs. the Islanders. This should be a very low-scoring game. Play UNDER Montreal-NY Islanders AAA |
|||||||
03-14-19 | Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 222 | Top | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER OKC-INDIANA These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. Both are top five in efficiency. Indiana is #2 in scoring, giving up just 103.9 points per game. Oklahoma City held Brooklyn under 100 points last evening, a crucial win for them. Coupled with Houston's loss to Golden State, the Thunder have moved back into a third place tie with the Rockets out West. In the East, the Pacers are trying to track down the three seed themselves. Expect a competitive game tonight and not many points scored. It wasn't just last night that OKC turned up the heat defensively. As already noted, this is a top five team in defensive efficiency. Before holding Brooklyn to 96 points last night, they held Utah to just 89 the game before that. They've gone Under in three straight. Indiana has either allowed or scored less than 100 in four straight, all Unders as well. The Under is 8-2 in Oklahoma CIty's last 10 games overall. Indiana is the #2 Under team in the league right now, trailing only Memphis. Play UNDER Oklahoma City-Indiana AAA |
|||||||
03-14-19 | South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette -2.5 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOUISIANA The Sun Belt Tournament format is one that greatly favors the top seeds. The top two teams only have to win once to make the Final. The #3 and #4 seeds need to win only twice to get there. Everyone else is facing an uphill climb, including a South Alabama team that would have to win FOUR times just to make the Final. We certainly don't see that happening. The Jaguars had little trouble getting by Arkansas State in the opening round (won 75-67) and got a day off prior to today's matchup. But UL Lafayette has played well this last month. The Ragin Cajuns are 6-2 straight up their last eight games and 7-1 ATS. What if I told you that they are one of the nation's highest scoring teams? They are, averaging 82.0 points per game! It was a high-scoring game when these teams met in the regular season. Louisiana won 88-84. South Alabama is unlikely to score that many again (they average 73.2 PPG) and is surprisingly not getting much help from the oddsmakers here. We were surprised at how low this number was when it opened. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
|||||||
03-14-19 | USC +5 v. Washington | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* winner on USC USC looked impressive yesterday in beating Arizona 78-65 and we think that that'll carry over into today's Pac 12 quarterfinal battle with top seed Washington. The Trojans went off as 2-pt dogs against Arizona. The Pac 12 was not good this year. Washington was the "best" team, but that's not saying much. The Huskies were not particularly impressive down the stretch either. They turned in a "dud" showing in the last regular season game, losing 55-47 to Oregon at home. They also lost to a terrible Cal team two weeks ago. Looking at their two wins in the past four games, one came in overtime and the other by only 1 point. This is one of the weakest top seeds in any conference tournament. Led by Bennie Boatright's 22 points and 11 rebounds, USC turned in an 18-2 run in each half yesterday. The Trojans never led in a 75-62 loss to UW in the regular season, but that game was played in Seattle and the Huskies looked a lot better at the time than they do now. Play on USC AAA |
|||||||
03-14-19 | Indiana -2 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDIANA The Hoosiers were an excellent team to bet down the stretch as they've covered six straight games. They've won the last four straight up as well, including upsets of both Wisconsin and Michigan State. It was a much different finish to the regular season for Ohio State. The Byckeyes are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in March. Now a large part of that had to do with the fact they were without leading scorer (and rebounder) Kaleb Wesson, who was suspended. Wesson will return for the Big 10 Tourney, but it may be a case of "too little, too late" for the Buckeyes. Indiana has legit revenge here for a three-point loss in the regular season. They shot very poorly in that game and we don't think that'll be the case this afternoon. Both of these teams finished with 8-12 SU records in Big 10 play, so they're lucky to even be in the NCAA Tournament discussion. The loser here is done. The difference between Indiana and Ohio State is that the former was able to beat good teams, including Michigan State twice. IU gets it done here. Play on INDIANA AAA |
|||||||
03-13-19 | North Texas v. Florida International +3 | Top | 71-57 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on FIU This is a first round matchup in Conference USA's Tournament. The way I see it, the only reason North Texas is still favored has to do with the way they started the season (16-2 through 18 games). Because the Mean Green definitely didn't end the season well. They've lost seven straight games and didn't cover the spread in any of them either. Their most recent loss was to a team they'll play again today, that being FIU, who just won 73-58 over UNT on Saturday. That was the second time the Panthers beat the Mean Green in the last month as they also prevailed by a score of 69-59 back on Feb 16th. Both games were in Miami due to the weird way C-USA did its schedule this year. But the Panthers finished the year at 19-12, winning and covering five of the last six games. North Texas is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams with winning records. Their poor form can't be overlooked here. Play on FIU AAA |
|||||||
03-13-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 74-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT On Monday, the Pistons chose a poor time to turn in their worst effort in months. They were dominated from start to finish by the Nets in a 103-75 loss. That cost them sixth place in the Eastern Conference, perhaps a meaningless distinction, but beating the teams you're competing with for playoff positioning is important this time of year. It's a similar matchup for Wednesday as the Pistons travel to Miami. The Heat are in 8th place right now, three games back of the Pistons. But that precious "breathing room" isn't something Detroit wants to be conceding right now. The good news is the Pistons haven't dropped back to back games since the All Star Break. They've gone 12-3 SU the last 15 games and the last time they were off a loss, they responded with a 129-93 win, on the road no less. Miami has actually played worse at home this year (15-19 SU) than on the road (16-16) and just gave up 125 points on almost 57% shooting Sunday to Toronto. So Detroit should shoot a lot better here than they did vs. Brooklyn, a game they finished 27% from the field. The previous three games all saw them shoot better than 53.5%. The Pistons are the better team here. Play on DETROIT AAA |
|||||||
03-13-19 | Blackhawks +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the PUCK LINE with CHICAGO +1.5 Taking into account recent battles between these former Norris Division rivals, taking the +1.5 seems like a real smart thing to do. The last five times the Blackhawks and Maple Leafs have played, the game has gone past regulation. That makes the +1.5 a winner every time. This time, Chicago is a big underdog on the money line, but you have to wonder why considering they have won 14 of their past 20 games, including three straight. The Blackhawks just dominated Arizona 7-1 for their biggest win (in terms of goal differential) all season. Given their recent level of scoring, it's going to be hard to beat them by multiple goals. There have been 11 times since January 20th where Chicago has scored at least four goals in a game. Conversely, there have been only three times in that stretch where they scored fewer than three. Toronto is one of the East's top teams, but they just suffered a demoralizing loss here at home to Tampa Bay where they conceded six goals. The Blackhawks won't do any worse than a one-goal loss here. Play CHICAGO on the PUCK LINE AAA |
|||||||
03-13-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington +4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GEORGE WASHINGTON The Atlantic 10 Tournament is heavily slanted to the top four teams (double byes) so GW and UMass both have uphill climbs. The lower seed is actually favored in this one, which is interesting because GW won the only regular season meeting. They did so 79-67 as 2.5 point home underdogs. That represents the Colonials only win in the last 10 games. Can they beat UMass again? Sure, why not. At the very worst they should still cover. UMass has been terrible as a favorite, going 3-12 ATS this year. They've lost nine of the games straight up. Even more damning is that the Minutemen are not just 1-7 ATS as a favorite in conference play, but also 1-7 straight up. You just don't want to be caught laying points with this group. We'll be honest in that GW isn't much better. But they are not this many points worse. Play on GEORGE WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
03-12-19 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | Top | 67-75 | Push | 0 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama We probably shouldn't be expecting very much from either Arkansas State or South Alabama in the Sun Belt Tournament, but one of them is going to advance to tomorrow's quarterfinals. Playing at home, South Alabama is rightfully favored to move on, but this isn't a game where you'd want to play the pointspread. The two regular season meetings were both low scoring games with the home team winning both times - by scores of 66-65 and 70-62. We don't see any reason why more points should be expected in the rubber match, let alone a double digit increase in scoring. While Arkansas State did just give up 90 points to Coastal Carolina on Saturday, that game went to overtime. South Alabama is allowing an average of just 68.7 PPG at home this season. The Under is 7-0 in the Jaguars' previous seven Tuesday games, for whatever that's worth. Play UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama AAA |
|||||||
03-12-19 | Knicks v. Pacers -11.5 | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on INDIANA It certainly looks like it will be a tough three-way fight for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference between Indiana, Philadelphia and Boston. Getting that #3 seed is crucial, not only for the home court advantage in the 1st round of playoffs, but it also allows that team to avoid playing either of the other two teams in question. Indiana has done itself no favors by losing its last two games, but they have a certified "layup" tonight when they host the league-worst Knicks. The two games that the Pacers just lost both came on the road and were against Milwaukee and Philadelphia. At home, this team is 25-9 SU and holding opponents to almost 100 PPG (100.1 to be exact). I expect the Pacers offense to be MUCH better tonight than it was against the Bucks and Sixers, who both held them under 100 points. The Knicks are atrocious defensively as they give up 114.5 PPG on the road. After winning three of four surrounding the All Star Break, New York has reverted to its losing ways by dropping six straight games. They've been held below 100 in three straight and those games were against teams that aren't even good defensively. The three teams (Suns, Kings, Timberwolves) all actually rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed. The Knicks have lost 38 of their last 43 games. Play on INDIANA AAA |
|||||||
03-12-19 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cavs-76ers The Cavs turned in a real stunner last night as they beat the Raptors 126-101. But that was in Cleveland. Tonight they travel to Philly to face a Sixers team that is not only very good at home, but also has gone Under in seven straight contests. In their last game, which was at home, Philly gave up only 89 points. Even though they just scored 126 points, Cleveland is not a real offensive threat. They are last in the Eastern Conference in points per game. Now defensively, there are concerns with this Cavaliers team. In their previous road game, they let the Heat shoot 57% and scored 126 points. But the Sixers have been held to an average of just 107 points their last three contests and have shot poorly in each of last two. Joel Embiid is back and did have 33 points in his return Sunday. But no one else could really make a shot. Look for the Sixers' Under streak to continue. Play UNDER Cleveland-Philadelphia AAA |
|||||||
03-12-19 | Capitals v. Penguins -131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on PITTSBURGH This is a massive game for the Penguins. We think its crucial for them to finish in the top three in the Metropolitan and thus avoid either division winner in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Right now, they are tied for third place with Carolina at 83 points. Washington leads the division with 89 points and has won its last seven games. But they've gotten to play Ottawa, Philadelphia, New Jersey and the Rangers twice during the win streak, so really all they've done is take advantage of a favorable schedule. Pittsburgh just snapped Boston's 19-game point streak with a 4-2 win Sunday. They have gone 9-3-2 the last 14 games themselves with 27 goals scored in the last eight games. Each side figures to start its top goaltender in this one and both Matt Murray and Braden Holtby have been exceptional of late. With Pittsburgh 36-15 their last 51 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 though, they get the nod tonight on home ice. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
|||||||
03-12-19 | Pittsburgh -1 v. Boston College | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITT Pitt had a lousy year in the ACC, but at least the regular season ended on a high note as they beat Notre Dame 56-53 Saturday. The Panthers still enter the ACC Tournament as the lowest possible seed (14th), but they are favored to win their first game. Having taken this team Saturday, I'll back them again here as I don't think they're nearly as bad as their record. B.C. comes into the ACC Tourney having lost three in a row and they were terrible in a 73-47 home loss to N.C. State on Saturday. The Eagles did win a pair of games in last year's ACC Tourney, but we don't see that happening again. They did beat Pitt in the only regular season meeting, 66-57, but that was in Chesnut Hill. The Panthers are the better three-point shooting team here. Look for that to be the difference tonight. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
|||||||
03-11-19 | Ohio +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OHIO Ohio did not have a particularly good regular season, but it ended on a high note with the Bobcats covering the spread in the last five games. They won three of them straight up and the two losses were by a combined eight points. So, for us, they're an attractive bet tonight getting points against Northern Illinois. This is a home game for NIU but they've lost 7 of 10 and none of the three wins were by more than seven points. The last two were both on the road and were upsets. The last three times the Huskies have been favored, they lost outright all three times. Now the last instance of them covering as chalk was here at home against Ohio. But the Bobcats actually led that game with seven minutes to go. They also lost to NIU in Athens, so it's a big-time revenge factor here. With both teams having been involved in so many close games this season, it seems only logical to side with the team getting points. There's just not much difference between the two sides and Ohio has played better of late. Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS its last five home games. Play on OHIO AAA |
|||||||
03-11-19 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 227 | Top | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER play on Thunder-Jazz The last time we saw these two matchup, it was a wild affair that went into double overtime. The Thunder won 148-147, which was the third time they've beaten the Jazz this year in as many chances. Two of the three games have been pretty high scoring, but not the one that was played here in Utah. That was a 107-106 final score and we think tonight's game follow a similar trajectory as you've got two teams in the top five of the league in defensive efficiency. OKC is 6-2 Under its last eight games and one of the two Overs was an overtime win at Portland. The Jazz just got held to 104 points by Memphis here at home in their last game. That was an Over because the total was low. It was also just the second time in six games Utah went Over. The total is substantially higher for this game and the Thunder are 12-3 Under in games where they are the underdog this season. Play UNDER Oklahoma City-Utah AAA |
|||||||
03-11-19 | Coyotes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Arizona-Chicago We finally saw a Blackhawks game go Under the total as they beat Dallas 2-1 on Saturday. The Under on that game was our *10* NHL Total of the Month. We went Under even though Chicago was 22-1-1 Over its previous 24 games! Such a streak is uncommon (for any sport) and suffice to say we'll consistently be getting high totals on every Blackhawks game for awhile now, which makes taking the Under seem like a logical move. Now Dallas was an ideal opponent for that Over streak to come to a halt. But Arizona has a similar "makeup." The Coyotes are 28th in the league in scoring, but also tied for 6th in goals allowed. They have not given up more than three goals in nine straight games and they've allowed just eight total in the past five games. Arizona is the only team in the league besides Dallas that is scoring and allowing less than 2.75 goals per game. Chicago is still last in the league in goals allowed, but that figures to change now that Corey Crawford has returning from a lengthy absence (due to a concussion). Crawford stopped 26 of 27 shots vs. the Stars. The only other time these teams met this year, the final score was 4-1 (Arizona won). Play UNDER Arizona-Chicago AAA |
|||||||
03-11-19 | Pistons +2 v. Nets | Top | 75-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT Both of these teams are trying to get into the playoffs, which (even in the Eastern Conference) would be considered a significant achievement. The Pistons have made the playoffs only once (2016) in the last decade and have not won a playoff series since their run of six straight Eastern Conference Finals, which ended in '08. The Nets have missed the playoffs 8 of the last 11 years including each of the last three. So the fact both might make it makes this an important game. Detroit is simply playing better right now. Their 131-108 win over the Bulls yesterday puts them an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS in March and 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) their last 14 games overall. Brooklyn has won three straight, but had won only 5 of its previous 15 games before that. They are also 1-4 ATS so far this month. You might think that the Pistons are at a bit of a disadvantage playing in the second game of a back to back, but it was an early game Sunday and an easy victory. The Pistons are 6-3 ATS playing without rest anyway and averaging 123 PPG in March on 52.5% shooting. They are a tough team to beat right now. Play on DETROIT AAA |
|||||||
03-10-19 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 94-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Rockets-Mavs Houston avoided a major scare with X-rays coming back negative on James Harden's wrist. The NBA's leading scorer (36.6 PPG) injured that wrist in Friday's win over the 76ers. Harden will play today, but will he be as effective as usual? Perhaps not. The Rockets are playing well right now. They have the longest active win streak in the league at seven straight. Back to back strong defensive efforts have really helped as they held Toronto to 95 points and Philly to 91. After holding those teams in check, stopping Dallas shouldn't be too tall an order. The Mavericks have lost 9 of 10. But they are more formidable at home where their SU record for the year is 21-11. So expect this to be a tougher game than expected for the Rockets, especially with Harden playing with the injured wrist. It should be a pretty low scoring game too, which is where we're willing to put our money. Six of Houston's last eight games have gone Under anyway. They are only shooting 43.2% in division games this season. Dallas had two sub-90 point efforts recently. In the last seven meetings vs. Houston, the Mavs have scored more than 107 points just once. Play UNDER Houston-Dallas AAA |
|||||||
03-10-19 | Delaware v. William & Mary -4.5 | Top | 85-79 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WILLIAM & MARY This is one of four quarterfinal matchups today in the Colonial Athletic Association. William & Mary is the 4-seed while Delaware is the 5, but the teams really aren't as close as those seedings suggest, nor are they as close as the oddsmakers seem to think they are. William & Mary finished two games up in the standings. They did lose to Delaware early in the year, by just two points on the road. But they crushed them in the rematch, at home, winning by 21 points. William & Mary ended the regular season on a five-game SU win streak, covering the spread in four of those games. Delaware ended with four straight losses - both SU and ATS - and is 1-9-1 ATS its last 11 games overall (3-8 SU). Pay little mind to the fact they beat W&M early in the season as the Tribe actually went off as the slight favorite in that game and it was decided by two points. W&M holds a 7-1 record the last eight meetings and led by seven at halftime in that loss. Delaware just got beat by double digits in back to back home games to end the regular season, by the top two teams in the Colonial. Even their modest 16-15 record is a bit misleading when you consider the won FOUR overtime games this year (didn't lose any), three of them double OT games! Play on WILLIAM & MARY AAA |
|||||||
03-10-19 | Illinois v. Penn State OVER 149 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Illinois/Penn State Penn State is a team that lost its first nine conference games, but that was a gross misrepresentation of where the Nittany Lions were really at. They've since won six of nine in the Big 10, also going 8-0-1 ATS. The push came earlier this week in a one-point victory over Rutgers, a game where they led by 18 at halftime. In the final home game of the year, Penn State hosts an Illinois team that's had more lows than highs in 2019. The Illini have dropped four of their last five, having just given up 92 points in a loss to Indiana on Thursday. Expect plenty of points here as well. Over the last four games, the Illini are allowing an average of 81 PPG. Opponents are shooting almost 50% against them for the year, when they're on the road, including 37.5% from three-point range. Penn State actually allows a slightly higher three-point shooting percentage here at home. That's a big reason why the Over is 4-0 the last four games at State College. The Over is also 6-2 in Penn State's last eight Big 10 games. Play OVER Illinois-Penn State AAA |
|||||||
03-10-19 | Rutgers v. Indiana UNDER 133.5 | Top | 73-89 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana You may be surprised to learn that Rutgers is a pretty good team at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. Indiana ranks even higher at 27th. Each team's offensive efficiency rating is much lower with Rutgers being at 150. So even though IU just dropped 92 on the road in its last game, our expectations are for a pretty low scoring game today in Bloomington. Outside of a game against Iowa (who is maybe the Big 10's worst defensive team), Rutgers has not gone over 70 points in any of its last six games. Indiana's had some real "stinkers" on offense too, particularly at home where they've scored 63 points or less three times in the last four games. These teams met back in January and the final score was 66-58 Rutgers. I don't think the rematch will be much more high scoring and that means the Under is in play here. The Hoosiers shot better than 55% in their last game, a number they won't match here. Nor will they allow 50% shooting to Rutgers, a number their last two opponents have both reached. Play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana AAA |
|||||||
03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati UNDER 129 | Top | 85-69 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati This figures to be a bit of a "rock fight" with the two top teams in the American facing off to determine who gets the regular season title. Houston has been in front most of the year, but did suffer a home loss to UCF last Saturday. They bounced back by beating SMU 90-79. Cincinnati was even with UH at two conference losses going into Thursday, but then they too lost to UCF, 58-55. The Bearcats have two streaks going on heading into today's regular season finale. They have lost seven straight ATS and the Under is 5-0 the L5 games. Of the two streaks, we believe the latter is more likely to continue here. Houston is a top 20 defensive team in the country, just like Cincinnati is. These teams played last month and the final score was 66-58 in favor of UH. The Cougars have gone Under in five of their last seven games, the only exceptions being a couple of 90+ point efforts against conference weaklings. They won't get anywhere close to that many points today in what figures to be another slugfest with so much on the line. Play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati AAA |
|||||||
03-09-19 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Chicago-Dallas The streak that the Blackhawks are on is something that we're not sure we have ever seen. The Over is 22-1-1 in the team's past 24 games! The one Under took place back on January 22nd, against the Islanders, which was the final game before the All Star Break! Since then it's been 15 Overs and one push. That one push came last Sunday vs. San Jose, a 5-2 loss as oddsmakers have started to adjust with 7.0 goal totals. It still didn't matter Thursday when they beat Buffalo 5-4, but it should here as they face a Dallas team that has delivered consecutive shutout victories and has allowed the third fewest goals in the league this season. Also, the Stars rank 29th in goals scored per game (third worst). So if there was ever an opponent to halt the Blackhawks' Over streak, it would be this one. The Under has cashed in roughly two-thirds of Dallas' games this year. Both games vs. Chicago did go Over, but this one won't as the Blackhawks will go Under for the 1st time since All Star Weekend! Play UNDER Chicago-Dallas AAA |
|||||||
03-09-19 | Nets v. Hawks OVER 235 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Brooklyn-Atlanta The scoreboard operator best pay attention in this one because plenty of points are set to be scored as the Nets take on the Hawks in Atlanta. Each team comes in well rested, having been off the last two days. Brooklyn has seen each of its last three games stay Under, but one of them saw them score 127 points (while holding Dallas to 88). There was also another game where they only scored 88 points. Such a point total simply isn't going to happen here for either side. Atlanta had gone Over in four straight before running into San Antonio Wednesday night and losing 111-104. The Nets have beaten the Hawks four straight, including a pair of game this season where they've averaged 130 points. The Over is 10-4 in Brooklyn's last 14 games. This might seem like a ridiculously high total to try and go Over, but it's that high for a reason. Play OVER Brooklyn-Atlanta AAA |
|||||||
03-09-19 | Duke v. North Carolina -3.5 | Top | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNC The first time these teams played UNC caught an all-time lucky break as Zion Williamson got injured in the first minute of the game. The Tar Heels took advantage of a shell-shocked Duke team, beating them 88-72 in Cameron. Though the game was on the road, it's almost unfathomable that UNC was a 10-point underdog for that contest. Now they are the higher ranked team and favorite, poised to sweep the season series from their hated rival. Though there's been some talk of Williamson returning here, it sounds as if that's highly unlikely and even if he did, who knows how he could perform in such a hostile situation. UNC has won six straight and 13 of its last 14 and I don't see them dropping their Chapel Hill finale. Since the Williamson injury, Duke lost at Virginia Tech and then was very fortunate to escape with a one-point victory earlier this week against Wake Forest, a game they were expected to win by 24. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
03-09-19 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -6.5 | Top | 53-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. Unlike Texas Tech, Kansas State gets to play at home. They host Oklahoma, whom the 18th ranked Wildcats easily downed earlier this year in Norman, 74-61 as five-point underdogs. Ironically, it was OU that came into that first meeting ranked in the top 20 (Wildcats were unranked). Something Kansas State has in common with Texas Tech is they are one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats allow 59.3 PPG, 4th fewest in the entire nation (1 PPG more than TT). Oklahoma has faded badly since losing that first matchup with Kansas State. The Sooners are 6-8 SU the last 14 games and that's even with back to back wins to open March. After upsetting Kansas earlier in the week, it would only be natural for the Sooners to have a letdown Saturday in Manhattan. Kansas State is 13-2 in the Octagon of Doom this year. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
|||||||
03-09-19 | Texas Tech -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS TECH For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. For Texas Tech to win at least a share of the title, they'll need to win in Ames against Iowa State. We like their chances. The Red Raiders are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, making them a dangerous opponent come NCAA Tournament time. They just ripped Texas 70-51, holding the Longhorns under 30% shooting for the game, for their eighth straight win. Meanwhile, Iowa State is limping towards the finish. The Cyclones have lost four of their last five games. While just one of those four losses transpired here at home, their last two defensive efforts leave a lot to be desired. They gave up 86 points to Texas and 90 to last place West Virginia. Defense travels, thus Texas Tech can be counted on today. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
|||||||
03-09-19 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh -2 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH Something will have to give here when Pittsburgh hosts Notre Dame in the final regular season game for both ACC teams. Pitt is 2-15 in conference play and has lost 13 in a row. They are in last place. Just one game ahead is Notre Dame, who has lost six straight. Can you believe Pitt actually holds early season wins over Louisville and NC State? There are many reasons why the Panthers have hit the skids, but the bottom line is they've lost a lot of close games as well. Believe it or not, this is actually an improvement from last year when they didn't win a single ACC game. As the home team Saturday, we expected them to have more motivation. Ending this losing streak in the final home game is a big deal. As poorly as Pitt has shot the basketball, Notre Dame has shockingly been worse at only 37.4% in ACC play. The Fighting Irish have just two wins outside of South Bend all season. A two-point loss to Clemson in their own home finale (Wednesday) could have a demoralizing effect. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
|||||||
03-08-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 233 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Denver-Golden State It's a Western Conference showdown between the top two teams and each has something to prove. The last time these teams played, Denver lost by 31 at home. Golden State has not played well recently, losing three of four and they've been even worse ATS at 1-10 the last 11 games. Also of interest is that Denver comes into tonight riding a seven-game Under streak. The Warriors are 5-1 Under in their last six games. We typically associate these teams with high-scoring games and for good reason. Golden State remains the top offensive force in the league while Denver isn't too far behind. Considering how many points these teams combined for the last time they played (253), going Over here seems like the right call. Play OVER Denver-Golden State AAA |
|||||||
03-08-19 | Mavs v. Magic -7 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORLANDO Orlando is trying to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is an achievable goal as they are just one game back of eighth place Miami. If they were to accomplish the goal, it would be the first time in the playoffs for the Magic since the Dwight Howard era, which ended back in 2012. That's a serious drought, so while we can talk about how depth shy the East is this year, that hardly matters to the Magic. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs out West and if there was any thought that they might make a late run, that's been killed by them winning just once in the last nine games. Recently, they've taken some very terrible losses, one by 30 at home to Memphis and another by 39 at Brooklyn. The Mavs only have six road wins all year, which is tied for the second fewest in the league. Orlando has dropped two in a row, but both games were on the road. Tonight is their only home game for the first 13 days of March, so they should play well. Don't be afraid to lay the points as they are in a good spot here. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
|||||||
03-08-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -9 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOLEDO We used Toledo earlier in the week and it was a success with them beating Western Michigan 76-57. That was the fourth win in a row for the Rockets, who have already clinched the MAC West and thus will be the #2 seed (behind Buffalo) in their conference tournament. But before they get to Cleveland, it's time to take care of a little business with Eastern Michigan in the final regular season game of the year. The Rockets are playing with legit revenge here as they lost up in Ypsilanti last month 76-69 as four-point favorites. They haven't lost since. We're getting a good price on them for the rematch. Toledo is a very good home team as is evident by their 13-2 SU record and they average 78.1 points per game while only giving up 62.1. For all the reasons we took them against Western Michigan, we like them here as well. Then there is the revenge angle coupled with it being Senior Night, which only sweetens the deal. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
|||||||
03-07-19 | Blues v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on UNDER Blues-Kings The Blues needed five goals to get by Anaheim last night, but shouldn't need nearly that many to get the win tonight in Los Angeles. The Kings have been downright brutal of late, losing 10 of their last 11 games, and they rank second from the bottom league-wide in number of goals scored. Anaheim is the only team that's scored fewer and, yes, the Blues just gave up four goals to them yesterday. But even without rest, this shapes up to be an easier defensive assignment for the Blues, who are 6-3 Under this season when playing in the second night of back to back games. The Under is 7-3-1 in St. Louis' last 11 games overall and we can't envision a second straight high scoring game vs. what is typically a low-scoring opponent. Look for the Blues to get back on track defensively here and they won't be scoring nearly as much as they did last night. Play UNDER St. Louis-Los Angeles AAA |
|||||||
03-07-19 | Pacific +1.5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 53-61 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PACIFIC In what is quite the interesting scenario, Pacific will play Pepperdine for a second time in less than a week. These WCC rivals ended the regular season against one another with Pacific winning 73-72 on a late three-pointer. The win, which came on the road, snapped a six-game losing streak for Pacific. Now the Tigers get to face the Waves at a neutral setting (Las Vegas), looking to sweep the season series. Pacific also beat Pepperdine earlier in the year, at home, 66-59. Pepperdine has won just one of its last five games and two out of its last eight. Their last win came against last place Portland (who is HORRIBLE) and the other win was by just three points over San Diego. The third time will NOT be the charm tonight for Pepperdine, who simply does not win away from home very often. Pacific hasn't just had Pepperdine's number this year, they've won and covered five straight times at the Waves' expense. Play on PACIFIC AAA |
|||||||
03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 221.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Pacers-Bucks In the league's defensive efficiency ratings, these are the two top teams, which helps explain why both have been so successful this season. Of course, Milwaukee is also quite prolfic at the offensive end as well, leading the Eastern Conference in points per game at 117.3. But Indiana tops the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and thus should keep Giannis and co. in relative check. The previous two times these teams played, the games both stayed Under. The total here is higher than either of those games. The Bucks have lost two in a row for the first time all season, so we suspect they'll be looking to turn up the defensive intensity tonight. Both losses saw them blow leads of 16 points or more. The Pacers don't have leading scorer Victor Oladipo anymore and backup forward Domantas Sabonis is also out. We just won with the Under in Indiana's last game as they held Chicago to only 95 points. Conference games have seen both teams go Under with great regularity of late. Milwaukee is 5-0 Under its last five conference games while Indiana is 10-3 its last 13. Play UNDER Indiana-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
03-07-19 | UL - Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UL LAFAYETTE This is another Sun Belt game, one involving the team that was just upset by Appalachian State. That result should leave Louisiana plenty motivated going into this final week of the regular season. Losing at home is never any fun, but especially on Senior Day, which is what happened to the Ragin Cajuns over the weekend due to a very poor defensive effort (gave up 90 points). We can't see them losing for a second straight time to an inferior opponent. They beat Little Rock by 14 on the road back in January. At the time, Louisiana's SU record was 10-5. They've been a .500 team since, but that's still better than Little Rock, who has dropped four straight coming into tonight. The Trojans had to play their last three games all on the road. Maybe they've been more competitive than the 5-11 conference record shows, but I don't think they can be trusted to win a game straight up. Not when they lost by double digits to the same team the first time around. Play on UL LAFAYETTE AAA |
|||||||
03-07-19 | Troy State +8 v. Appalachian State | Top | 64-72 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TROY Last place Troy has had little to celebrate in the Sun Belt as their record is 4-12 and they come into the final week having lost five in a row and 9 of the last 10 games. But tonight the Trojans face one of the teams they have beaten already and they'll do so while getting a pretty generous number. Appalachian State is only a game ahead of Troy in the standings, so the latter has a chance to get out of the basement with a win tonight. With App State both off a rare win and laying points, I see them as being particularly vulnerable tonight. The Mountaineers just beat Louisiana 90-80 over the weekend, thus sweeping the season series from the Ragin Cajuns. But here we find them as a favorite, a role they have only been in six times all season and gone 2-4 ATS. This will be the most points ASU has had to lay in any Sun Belt game. Go with the underdog in a clear letdown spot for the favorite. App State is just 7-27 ATS following a game where they covered the spread. Play on TROY AAA |
|||||||
03-06-19 | Oregon -7 v. Washington State | Top | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON Oregon has simply rolled to victory in each of its last two games, winning by 28 and 26 points. They beat the two Arizona schools, both at home, and a 73-47 dismantling of Arizona over the weekend was most impressive. They do have to travel twice in the final week of the regular season, up to Washington, but winning in Pullman should not be much of a problem (the finale @ Washington will be much tougher). Waiting here for the Ducks is a dreadful Washington State squad that has won just 4 of its 16 Pac 12 games. Three straight losses probably haven't done wonders for the Cougars' confidence coming into the final week and they already lost to Oregon by 20 earlier in the year. Wazzu may not be as bad at home as they are on the road, but they are bad regardless and we don't see this being a very competitive game. Play on OREGON AAA |
|||||||
03-06-19 | Celtics v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO Expect the narrative of "BOSTON IS BACK" to start flying after the Celtics just handed Golden State its worst home loss EVER (33 points) under Steve Kerr. But with a quick turnaround, against a Sacramento team that has been a major surprised, the good times may not last long. Let's not forget the Celtics had lost five of six since the All Star Break prior to last night's shocking triumph out in Oakland. The Kings have the league's 2nd best ATS record at 37-26 and that includes a 22-11 mark at home. The fact that they're no longer favored (line jumped the fence after Boston won last night) is a little disappointing based on the fact they are 15-2 SU/13-4 ATS as chalk. The Kings did a good job defensively in their last game. Granted, it was the Knicks, but Boston is only 3-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back and they average just 105 PPG. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
|||||||
03-06-19 | Maple Leafs -185 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on TORONTO Toronto just put up six goals in a dominant victory over Calgary Monday night. So they should have little difficulty winning at Vancouver tonight. Five of the Maple Leafs last six games have seen them score at least five goals. All five games were wins. Vancouver's last seven games have brought six defeats and the only win was against Anaheim. The Canucks were just shutout in their last game, 3-0 at Vegas, and simply lack the offensive firepower to compete here. That was the ninth time they've been shutout this season and they were outshot 48-19. Toronto has the league's second best scoring differential. They are a really good team, probably better than its record. Vancouver is not a good team and has already been crushed by the Leafs one time this season, 5-0 out in Toronto. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
03-06-19 | 76ers v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CHICAGO This is the second night of a back to back for both teams. Philly won last night, beating Orlando 114-106, while Chicago lost 105-96 to Indiana. Those results are pretty "par for the course" for the respective seasons the two teams are having, but we like the Bulls getting points at home tonight. The 76ers are nowhere near as strong on the road (16-14) as they are at home (25-9) and laying points on the road can certainly be tricky. Joel Embiid is still absent from the Philly lineup, leaving them very thin in the frontcourt. They were lucky to have a strong 1st half last night vs. Orlando (scored 70 pts) as they only scored 44 in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Chicago had the lead with just over seven minutes to go last night in Indiana before wilting down the stretch. They'd also won five of their previous seven games. An upset here is a real possibility. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
03-06-19 | Wolves v. Pistons -5.5 | Top | 114-131 | Win | 101 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT Though they did beat Oklahoma City last night, this is going to be a really tough spot for Minnesota here. That was a home game vs. the Thunder and now it's back on the road where they've lost three in a row and are just 9-24 this season. Detroit has really started to gain some steam, winning 9 of its last 11, and both losses took place on the road. All things considered, laying a short number like this seems to be a "no-brainer." The Pistons have had two days off to prepare and just beat the Raptors. Making that win even more impressive is the fact they were playing the second night of a back to back. The Timberwolves are just 2-7 SU in that scenario this season with all seven losses taking place out on the road. The T'wolves are terrible defensively and the Pistons have not lost a home game since Feb 2. This is a big game for Detroit as a win gets them above .500 for the first time since Dec 19. Play on DETROIT AAA |
|||||||
03-06-19 | Youngstown State v. Oakland -8 | Top | 84-88 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Quarterfinal action in the Horizon League continues tonight with the 3 seed (Oakland) hosting the 6 seed (Youngstown State). The winner here moves on to play the winner of Northern Kentucky vs. Detroit next Monday. While it might seem like a bad idea to lay points in a matchup of teams whose two regular season meetings were decided by a total of three points, that's precisely what we'll do here. Oakland ended the regular season quite well, winning its last four games - all by double digit margins (4-0 ATS). YSU has lost three in a row, including one at home to Cleveland State, who didn't even qualify for the conference tournament. Oakland scores a lot when it plays at home (81.5 PPG) and Youngstown State doesn't score much when it travels (69.9 PPG). Look for the favorite to easily cover the spread in this one. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
03-05-19 | East Carolina v. Wichita State -14.5 | Top | 55-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WICHITA STATE Wichita State might only be middle of the pack in the American, but they've been a lot better down the home stretch, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread their last nine games. They just won by 12 at SMU on Sunday, as a 3.5-point underdog, and now get one of the conference's worst teams for the final home game of the year. In most leagues, East Carolina would be the worst team, but the American happens to have Tulane, whose ineptitude defies description. Wichita State already beat ECU by 16 on the road, a game which came during this 7-2 run. East Carolina has just one road win all year and it came against ... you guessed it, Tulane. They give almost 80 PPG in road games, which is a problem facing a Wichita State team that's been tightening the screws defensively recently. The Shockers have held five of the last seven opponents below 37% shooting. ECU has allowed 190 points the last two games on almost 60% shooting. Play WICHITA STATE AAA |
|||||||
03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON We won by taking the Rockets Sunday in Boston and now they head up to Canada to face another Eastern Conference power, that obviously being the Raptors. Boston's recent struggles made them an easy fade against a Houston squad that has clearly found its stride during a five game win streak. Beating a better Toronto team may prove more difficult, but given the ease with which the Rockets downed the Celtics (won by 11 and it wasn't even really that close), simply winning here would not be that "big of a deal." The Rockets are now 19-9 SU when James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella are all in the starting lineup. That threesome being on the floor together was crucial in the Rockets finishing last season with the best record in the regular season. Toronto just lost to Detroit over the weekend. There was no Kawhi Leonard in that game, but him being back tonight won't be enough to get by this red hot Houston team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
03-05-19 | Panthers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -138 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play OVER Panthers-Penguins We see a high scoring game transpiring tonight in Pittsburgh. Florida comes to the Steel City on a four-game losing streak. They've given up 17 goals in those four losses. The last game was "only" a 3-2 loss, but to Ottawa, who is very bad. Before that, the Over was 7-0-1 in the Panthers last eight games. Pittsburgh is one of the highest scoring teams in the league and won't have much difficulty scoring tonight. They lit the lamp five times in a key win over Montreal Saturday. But that was after giving up four goals in three of their previous four games. Since February 17th, Florida has scored 36 goals in nine games and that loss to Ottawa was the only time they didn't score at least three. The Penguins have scored at least three goals in 10 of their last 11 games. Over is 16-9 when the Pens scored four or more times in their last game. Play OVER Panthers-Penguins AAA |
|||||||
03-05-19 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Bulls-Pacers It's not that surprising that Chicago is near the bottom of the league in most key offensive categories. After all, they have one of the worst records in the league. Only two teams average fewer points per game and that's even after the Bulls wild 168-161 win over Atlanta that went four overtimes last Friday. They scored 118 more points in a rematch with the Hawks Sunday, at home, but this time lost by five points. Do not look for them to score anywhere near those kind of numbers tonight as they face one of the better defensive teams in the league. While Indiana still ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, they are without their leading scorer (Victor Oladipo) and have topped 112 points just twice in the last seven games. This looks like a pretty clear Under to me as the last time these teams met, the total was set at just 201 points. Play UNDER Bulls-Pacers AAA |
|||||||
03-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -15.5 | Top | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TOLEDO Toledo is already assured of winning the MAC West as they swept the season series from Central Michigan, whom they just beat Saturday. But the Rockets have a real chance to enter the conference tourney with some serious momentum as they have what appear to be - on paper - two very winnable home games in the final week of the regular season. Up first is a Western Michigan team they already beat on the road back in January. That was an eight-point win as six-point favorites, but they'll need a far greater margin of victory to cover the spread tonight. Western Michigan has covered four in a row, including three straight losses by five points or less. Our guess is they won't have much left in the tank after a two-point loss to Ball State over the weekend. Friday's home finale vs. Central Michigan and obviously the MAC Tournament are greater priorities for the Broncos at this point. They are only 3-13 SU on the road and 2-14 in conference play. They're no match for the Rockets tonight. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
|||||||
03-04-19 | Kansas State -1.5 v. TCU | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE Kansas State is seeking its first share of a Big 12 title since 2013 and first outright regular season championship since 1977 when the conference was still known as the Big 8. To at least accomplish the former, they'll need to win the final two regular season games. The latter would require winning both times and Texas Tech also losing once. Motivation won't be lacking for TCU tonight either in their final home game. But the Horned Frogs have dropped five of six and already lost to the Wildcats by 10 earlier in the year. I can't see them winning this time either, even at home. Kansas State is one of the very best defensive teams in the country and is on a 12-2 run vs. Big 12 opponents. Last week did feature a pair of subpar performances against Kansas and Baylor. But laying the shortest of numbers against TCU shouldn't be that much of a problem here. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
|||||||
03-04-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -1 | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO Denver is off a couple of head scratching defeats, both at home no less. One was to Utah, which would seem like not that big of a deal, but the Jazz were playing short-handed in that game. But more puzzling was the Nuggets losing to the Pelicans on Saturday, as 12.5-point favorites, game where they didn't even have to face Anthony Davis. I said to take New Orleans plus the points in that one and even I was surprised at the final result, especially considering NO trailed by as many as 19 at one point. Now the Nuggets must to go to San Antonio where the Spurs have won back to back games. They beat a hot Detroit team and a very good Oklahoma City team, both at home, in those last two games. This win streak comes on the heels of the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" which went very poorly vs. the Spurs this year (1-7 SU and ATS). The Spurs have now won six straight home games. These teams split a home and home back in late December with the home team winning both games. Look for that trend to continue here. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
|||||||
03-03-19 | Rockets +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON The Celtics remain a clear fade for us as even when they won Friday night vs. Washington, they still trailed in the second half. That win came on the heels of a four-game losing streak to start the 2nd half of the season. We'd just played against them Wednesday when they lost at home to Portland. It's a similar setup Sunday as they welcome in a Houston team that has won four in a row. Boston couldn't beat the Blazers (who were on a similar win streak) and it's tough seeing them beating the Rockets either. In the five games since All Star Weekend concluded, the Celtics are averaging only 101.4 points per game and have been held under the century mark three times. Houston has averaged 116.4 points per game since the break, topping 118 each of the last four games. The Rockets were short-handed for their last game, but still found a way to win on the road despite trailing Miami by as much as 21 points in the second half. James Harden scored 58 points in the come from behind win. Houston won the season's first meeting 127-113 and you should expect a similar type score today. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
03-03-19 | Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 107-128 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER KNICKS-CLIPPERS The Knicks are very bad, but you already knew this. While they have won three of five, that comes on the heels of a franchise-worst 18-game slide and they have the worst overall record in the league (13-49 SU). Thursday night may have been a new low as the Knicks gave up a 40-point fourth quarter (at home!) and lost to Cleveland, blowing all of a 14-point lead. We don't expect them to be competitive this afternoon in LA. But the game should be pretty low-scoring, at least when compared to today's total. This will be just the third home game for the Clippers since the beginning of February. They won each of the last two, beating Phoenix by 27 and Dallas by 9. But it's been some ugly shooting of late with just one of the last four games producing a field goal percentage above 43.5. The Knicks aren't apt to shoot the ball well either, so we don't see how this one could go Over a total that's so high. Play UNDER Knicks-Clippers AAA |
|||||||
03-03-19 | Manhattan v. Quinnipiac -8.5 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Quinnipiac Quinnipiac has a shot at at earning itself a share of the MAAC regular season title. All they need to do today is beat a Manhattan team that already beat on the road earlier this year. That will give them a 12-6 SU league mark, same as Iona, whose regular season is now complete. A loss today though would be deadly for the Bobcats. As many as three other teams could finish w/ an 11-7 SU league mark and that scenario unfolds, Quinnipiac could go into the MAAC Tournament as low as the #5 seed. Fortunately, it would appear Manhattan is going to offer little resistance today. The Jaspers have lost three in a row, scoring just 52, 59 and 54 points. That's actually pretty par for the course as they come in averaging only 56.9 PPG, which ranks second to last in the entire country! They had no answer for a 12 of 28 Quinnipiac three-point barrage in the first meeting and it should be more of the same in today's regular season finale. Look for the home team to honor its seniors with a big win. PLAY ON QUINNIPIAC AAA |
|||||||
03-03-19 | South Florida v. Connecticut -4 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UConn Something will have to give here as USF has lost four in a row while UConn has dropped six straight. Certainly, the current state of Huskies hoops still takes some getting used to. However, they've at least been covering with regularity, going 8-2 ATS their last 10 games with both non-covers coming on the road. They actually haven't won a single game away from home all season, but are 12-4 SU in Storrs and that's where they are getting USF today. It just so happens that home favorite is the role that has treated UConn the best as they are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. Laying just a short number here, against a subpar foe, thus seems advantageous. The Huskies have a scoring differential of +13.8 PPG at home. Yes, there was a time USF had a 17-6 record. But they've lost four straight, the last two coming by double digits, getting somewhat exposed in the process. Three days ago, UConn blew a 10-point lead against Wichita State and lost at the buzzer. They'll bounce back Sunday afternoon. Play on UCONN AAA |
|||||||
03-02-19 | Wild v. Flames -170 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on CALGARY Two hot teams meet Saturday night in Calgary, but the Flames are both hotter and better. Their win streak has reached seven games with them allowing a total of just four goals in the last four games. They lead the Western Conference with 89 points, are at home (where their record is 20-5-5) and have already beaten the Wild twice. The fact Minny has won four straight is a little bit surprising. They won in Winnipeg Tuesday and have been off ever since. Prior to this win streak, the Wild had gone 1-6-2 their previous nine games. I just don't see them at Calgary's level, especially as the road team. That win in Winnipeg saw the Wild score twice in the final two minutes of the third period. They won't be able to keep up here however as Calgary is the West's highest scoring team. Play on CALGARY AAA |
|||||||
03-02-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO New Mexico suffered quite the embarrassing loss on Wednesday as they fell to San Jose State, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country, 89-82 as 10.5 point favorites. That's something that just "can't happen," but lucky for the Lobos they are back in Albuquerque for this Saturday night tilt with Colorado State. The Rams won at Boise State on Wednesday as 6.5-point underdogs. It was their third straight victory, but the other two were over San Jose State and Wyoming, the two worst teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico has lost three in a row. I'll call for both streaks to end tonight as the Lobos are playing with revenge for a loss in Ft. Collins where they were actually two-point favorites. Despite what we've seen recently, New Mexico is the better of the two teams and CSU's recent efforts simply are not sustainable. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
|||||||
03-02-19 | Pelicans +13.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on New Orleans When looking at this line, you probably could have guessed that Anthony Davis will be sitting out for the Pelicans. You would be correct as the team played last night - and won - beating Phoenix 130-116. But given what a distraction Davis has become, maybe his absence isn't all that it's "cracked up to be?" The Pelicans shot the ball ridiculously well Friday night, especially from three-point range. It won't be that easy tonight in Denver, but they're also now getting a boatload of points. The Nuggets suffered a rare home defeat at the hands of Utah (who was short-handed) on Thursday, snapping a nine-game win streak here. Maybe the situation isn't all that ideal for New Orleans, but the pointspread is far too generous for a team that has covered 10 of its last 14 games. New Orleans usually scores a lot, whether Davis is in the lineup or not, and that makes covering against them as double digit chalk problematic to say the least. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
03-02-19 | Toledo -1 v. Central Michigan | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Toledo This is a big game in the MAC's Western Division where Toledo holds a one-game lead over Central Michigan. A win today by the road team would give them a two-game edge (duh!) as well as a season sweep of the Chippewas. CMU has been "money" against the spread lately, going 9-0-1 ATS its last 10 games, which includes covering that first meeting vs. Toledo where they were a nine-point underdog. Both teams were successful on the road earlier in the week with Toledo winning at Ball State and CMU winning at Eastern Michigan. Toledo's win, which came despite allowing their opponent to shoot 52.1%, seemed more impressive to me and I have them rated as the better team. CMU may average more than 90 PPG at home, but they won't get to that number here against a Rockets team allowing only 68.4 PPG. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
|||||||
03-02-19 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -5 | Top | 75-80 | Push | 0 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on AUBURN The last time Auburn played at home, I took them and was richly rewarded with an easy win and cover. Facing Arkansas, they were laying a pretty big number, but nothing could stop the Tigers that night as they raced out to a 25-point halftime lead and never looked back. That game saw them shoot 17 of 33 from three-point range and it would be nice to get something similar today as they host Miss State in a revenge game. Auburn lost in Starkville last month by a score of 92-84. It was their most points allowed in a game this season and a really disappointing result given the Tigers shot 53.2% from the floor themselves. After getting blown out at Kentucky last Saturday, then barely escaping Georgia, this should be a welcome return home for the Tigers. Miss State has won five in a row, but that's come against the lower-half of the SEC. At home, Auburn is 13-2 with a scoring differential of +23.5 per game. They haven't shot well recently, but I'm banking on them shooting well here. Play on AUBURN AAA |
|||||||
03-01-19 | Bucks v. Lakers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Bucks-Lakers The Lakers finally won a game as they beat Anthony Davis and the Pelicans Wednesday night by a score of 125-119. But LeBron and company are by no means out of the woods yet as they are still three games out of the top eight in the Western Conference and tonight they have to face Milwaukee. The Bucks have won six straight and 12 of 13 to improve the league's best overall record to 47-14. They come off a 141-140 win at Sacramento two nights ago, a final score which clearly has influenced the total for tonight. But the Under is 21-9 in Lakers home games this season and I don't see this one going Over. The number is just too high. The Bucks are 5-2 Under in the last seven games and 18-13 Under on the road. After scoring 130+ points, they are 7-3 Under in the next game. Bucks' opponents are only shooting 43.1% this season, which is easily the lowest figure in the league. Play UNDER Lakers-Bucks AAA |
|||||||
03-01-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Avs-Sharks This has all the makings of a wild, high-scoring game. San Jose is third in the league in goals per game and predictably increases its scoring average when playing at home. They are 19-5-5 at The Tank. But there is an issue and it's along the blue line with defenseman Erik Karlsson leaving Tuesday's game after re-injuring his groin. The Sharks gave up four goals in that game and Karlsson is out indefinitely as that same groin injury caused him to miss 10 games over the last two months. This is problematic going against a Colorado team that appears to have rediscovered its scoring touch with 23 goals scored in the last five games. The last time the Sharks and Avs played, the former won 5-4 in Denver. Four of the last five meetings have gone Over. Colorado has scored more goals on the road this season than they have at home. Play OVER Colorado-San Jose AAA |
|||||||
03-01-19 | Hornets v. Nets UNDER 228 | Top | 123-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Hornets-Nets Brooklyn got surprisingly torched by Washington Wednesday night as they gave up 125 points. While that was going on, Charlotte was blowing a double digit second half lead and lost to Houston. With two playoff hopefuls coming off home losses, this game takes on a real importance. So I wouldn't look for a shootout. Before the upset loss to the Wizards, the Nets had held San Antonio to just 85 points in an impressive win. So giving up 40 more to an also-ran the next game was not expected. The good news here is Charlotte isn't good on the road where they only average 108.4 PPG. The Hornets haven't played on the road since before the All Star Break. Their final four games before the Break were all on the road and they went 1-3, scoring 93 pts or less in the three losses. So I don't expect them to do well offensively tonight and also key is the Hornets' 8-0 Under record when playing with revenge for a home loss. Last Friday, they lost at home to Brooklyn 117-115. This rematch will be a lower-scoring game. Play UNDER Charlotte-Brooklyn AAA |
|||||||
03-01-19 | Columbia v. Brown -5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Brown Not sure what the reason is for this line being bet down so much, but Brown is now a really great value play. The Bears are at home, facing a Columbia team that they already defeated on the road. They come in on a three-game win streak, having just beaten both Harvard and Dartmouth here at home. Columbia has just one win in its last eight games and it was by two points. So the Lions aren't likely to be roaring on the road. They are 3-11 SU in road/neutral site games and giving up an average of 78.5 points in those contests. Brown is 11-2 SU at home where it averages 81.5 PPG. All signs point to laying the relatively short number with the home team in this one. The Bears were able to win at Columbia despite making only three three-pointers in the game. Brown has yet to lose as a favorite this year as they are 8-0 in the role. Play on BROWN AAA |
|||||||
02-28-19 | Cal Poly +12.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CAL POLY Cal State Fullerton is only 13-14 overall this season, but they're 9-4 in the Big West and that's the second best record in the conference. But they were losers last Saturday to UCSB, falling by 15 as a four-point dog. It was just the second loss in the last 11 games. The team the Titans host Thursday has become somewhat familiar with losing as Cal Poly has dropped 10 of its last 12 games. They are in last place in the Big West, but did win their last game, which was at home against Hawaii. The Mustangs were eight point underdogs and won the game by eight. CS Fullerton is only 9-16 ATS overall and 2-6 ATS at home. Six of their last nine wins have come by seven points or fewer. Play on CAL POLY AAA |
|||||||
02-28-19 | 76ers v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKLAHOMA CITY Oklahoma City has not covered any of its last four contests. The most recent one was a 121-112 loss at Denver. The previous three all saw them fail to cover as a favorite. The only SU win in this stretch was a double overtime game vs. Utah. Today, they'll host a Philadelphia team that has had its own problems since returning from All Star Weekend. The Sixers have won two of the games, but barely as they beat Miami by four and New Orleans by only one. Depending when one bet that New Orleans game, it could have been a win or loss. Using the closing line of Sixers -2.5, it would be the third straight ATS loss for the team. I think some may be surprised over the size of this line, but remember Philly still doesn't have Joel Embiid. With a healthy Embiid in the lineup, they lost to the Thunder last month. They also won't have Boban Marjanovic in the lineup tonight. But perhaps more pertinent of all here is the Thunder's 19-game win streak over the Sixers, which is the longest active streak by one team over another in the league. Philly has beaten OKC just one time since the move from Seattle -- in 2008. Love the Thunder here as they are due to break out. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
|||||||
02-28-19 | Arkansas State +11.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Arkansas State Georgia State is tied with Georgia Southern for second place in the Sun Belt, one game behind first place Texas State. Arkansas State is much further down the standings, several games off the pace. But this only meeting of the season should be closer than anticipated. The visiting Red Wolves come in one a two-game win streak. Both wins were at home, but they are 6-1 ATS their last seven road games with a total of 150 to 154.5. Georgia State is off a bad loss at Coastal Carolina where they gave up 95 points. They trailed by 25 at halftime. Too many points to lay here as it's a team unaccustomed to laying so many against a team that typically doesn't get as many. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
|||||||
02-27-19 | Texas v. Baylor -4.5 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAYLOR Baylor and Texas have a huge game tonight in Waco as both are looking to establish themselves as NCAA Tournament worthy teams. The latest "Bracketology" projections have both teams in, but Texas would seem to be in a pretty precarious state, given their 15-12 SU record. Unfortunately for tonight, the Longhorns will have to go in short-handed as their leading scorer Kerwin Roach II has been suspended for an off the court matter. They'll get no sympathy from a Baylor team, who has had to navigate the season without two of its top players, Tristan Clark and King McClure. Plus the Bears have revenge from a 12-point loss in Austin earlier this month. Baylor has performed surprisingly well without the two players, winning three of its last four games. I expect Texas to struggle without Roach. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
|||||||
02-27-19 | Pacers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Pacers-Mavs Indiana is a top defensive team in this league, but of course they're carrying on without their top scorer (Victor Oladipo) the rest of the way. So I'd expect them to be a strong Under play more often that not and tonight is one of those times. Now all three of their games since the All Star Break have gone Over. I actually just played against them on Monday when they suffered a four-point loss in Detroit. Tonight though, they are playing a Dallas team mired in a five-game slump where they haven't won nor covered even once. Last month when these teams met in Indiana, it was a 111-99 Pacers victory that stayed Under the total. A similar result would not surprise me, although this time the Mavs probably keep it closer. Partly because Dallas is a much better defensive team at home. The Mavs are 16-7 Under when facing an Eastern Conference opponent this year. Play UNDER Indiana-Dallas AAA |
|||||||
02-27-19 | Blazers +3 v. Celtics | Top | 97-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Portland I think its pretty apparent that Boston has a lot of problems going on right now. Last night, they were handed their worst defeat of the season, by Toronto, 118-95. They have little time to sulk as tonight they return home to face the red-hot Blazers. The Celtics are now 0-3 since the break and rapidly running out of excuses. Now all three losses did take place on the road. But Portland has had no such difficulty winning on the road, going 3-0 there since the break. It's a four-game win streak overall for the Blazers, who have also covered the spread in all four games. The latest win came in Cleveland Monday night by a score of 123-110. When coming off a double digit victory this season, Portland has gone 16-5 ATS in its next game. Given the recent form of the two teams here, I don't know how one can make a case for Boston, who is also 3-6 ATS playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
02-27-19 | Flames -159 v. Devils | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on Calgary While on the road and playing the second night of a back to back, we do not anticipate the Flames having much difficulty winning tonight in New Jersey. Calgary is certainly "back on track" now with six straight wins, including 3-1 over the Islanders last night. This team leads the Western Conference with 87 points, which is a far cry from the 58 points that the last place Devils have. The Devils are off a win, 2-1 over Montreal on Monday, but have not done a good job at staying successful this season. What I mean by that is they've produced back to back victories only one time since the All Star Break. They are only 9-20 when facing an opponent that has a winning record. Calgary is 22-11 vs. sub-.500 foes. With the Flames having allowed just three goals in the last three games, this one is as easy as it looks. Play on CALGARY AAA |
|||||||
02-26-19 | Stars v. Golden Knights -190 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on VEGAS The faithful in Vegas are not used to seeing the home team lose, but lose they have as the Golden Knights come into Tuesday having dropped five out of the last six at T-Mobile Arena. That's highly uncharacteristic and I suspect it's just a matter of time before they get back on track. Tonight seems like as good a spot as any as Dallas already lost here once this season. After getting shutout in three of their previous five games, the Stars got off the mat to beat the Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime Sunday. But this team has all sorts of issues scoring, especially on the road where they average the fewest number of goals per game in the league. In its brief franchise history, Vegas is 6-2 SU when coming off three straight defeats. Dallas has been giving up lots of shots on goal lately and this is an area where the Golden Knights can capitalize. Play on VEGAS AAA |
|||||||
02-26-19 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -11.5 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on North Carolina I said that there was no way Syracuse could reasonably be expected to compete Saturday night vs. Duke, even at home and with the Blue Devils playing without Zion Williamson. This is because of the situation with Jim Boeheim trumping everything. If you haven't been following the news, a car driven by Boeheim struck and killed a pedestrian late last week. The fact Boeheim is continuing to coach is somewhat mind-blowing, given that circumstance. The Orange actually played better than I though they would vs. Duke, but still lost by 10 at the Carrier Dome. Now they must turnaround and hit the road to face the team that just beat Duke, that being North Carolina. The Tar Heels are as hot as anyone in the country right now. Yes, they took full advantage of Williamson getting hurt when they beat Duke, but this is a team that has won its last two games - both against very good teams (Duke and Florida State) by a combined 34 points despite shooting just 9 of 40 from three-point land. They should destroy Syracuse tonight in Chapel Hill as the Orange lack the offensive punch to compete with a team that averages 88.4 PPG. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Toronto Eastern Conference heavyweights collide North of the Border with both teams looking to bounce back from bad losses. Boston lost in Chicago Saturday while Toronto was upset by Orlando Sunday afternoon. The Celtics hold the edge in the season series, winning 2 of 3, but the home team is a perfect 3-0. Looking at the total, it just seems too high. Boston was held to only 97 points in a loss to Milwaukee last Thursday. There was no excuse for the poor defensive effort against the Bulls, but regardless I expect them to be better at that end of the floor this evening. Toronto was also just held under 100 pts in its last game. This figures to take on more of a "playoff-like" intensity, so a high-scoring affair seems unlikely. Both teams sport a top six defensive efficiency rating. It's been all Overs in the three previous head to head games this season, but this one will be different as it figures to be a pretty fierce battle. The Under is 8-3 in Toronto's last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and 7-1 in Boston's previous eight road games. Play UNDER Boston-Toronto AAA |
|||||||
02-26-19 | Sabres v. Flyers -160 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on PHILADELPHIA Already in the midst of a slide, this is a very bad spot for Buffalo. After losing 5-3 last night in Toronto, the Sabres now must play one of the league's hottest teams in Philadelphia. The Flyers stormed back from a two-goal deficit in the third period to beat Pittsburgh on Saturday and have now won 13 out of their last 17 games. Meanwhile, Buffalo has dropped five out of its last six. Given how things have been going, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Philly ended up with more points at season's end, which seemed highly unlikely when Buffalo was winning 10 straight back in November. But aside from that one streak, the Sabres are just 19-33 in all other games. That's just not very good, nor is their 11-16-4 road record. The Flyers won 6-2 the last time they faced Buffalo. They've won the last three meetings at home as well. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
|||||||
02-25-19 | Northern Colorado v. Montana OVER 142 | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana I don't think that the end of Northern Colorado's 9-game Under streak made many headlines over the weekend, but it did end. The Bears lost an overtime game to Eastern Washington, 88-78. Let it be known though that the game would have gone Over even without OT - by double digits. It's not as if Northern Colorado is a poor offensive team. They average 77.2 points per game. That Under streak was more a byproduct of them playing bad Big Sky teams in games with pretty high totals. Here they face the Big Sky's best offensive - and overall - team in Montana. This is a pretty important game between the conference's 1st and 2nd place teams. Northern Colorado is two games back and was beaten badly - 88-64 - by Montana in the first meeting. That was at home too. Montana averages 80.0 PPG in Missoula and has scored at least 83 points in five out of its last six games (Over is 5-1). The Grizzlies are an excellent shooting team and the last five meetings with Northern Colorado have all gone Over. Tonight's total is actually lower than it was for the first meeting, which seems like a mistake by the oddsmakers. Play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana AAA |
|||||||
02-25-19 | 76ers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 111-110 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS I've bet against Philadelphia each of their last two games and gone 2-0 ATS. They barely got by Miami, winning by just four points at home. Then they got blown out by Portland, also at home. Now they take their act on the road and one player that won't be making the trek to the Big Easy is Joel Embiid. Embiid has missed those last two games, so that helps explain the slide. But giving up 130 points to the Blazers was definitely not a good look, Embiid or no Embiid. New Orleans just beat the Lakers Saturday night and did so with Anthony Davis not even suiting up. Davis should play tonight and he'd join seven teammates that were in double figures vs. LA, a 128-point effort that included the Pelicans highest scoring 1st quarter (43 points) all season. The Pelicans have an 18-11 record at home and thus looking like a strong play on the Monday card. Philly has gotten to play six out of its last seven games at home with the one road game coming against the Knicks. Their record is only .500 (14-14 SU) on the road. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
02-25-19 | Pacers v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Initially, things weren't looking so good for Indiana without Victor Oladipo. They lost the first four games after it was announced their leading scorer was done for the year with a knee injury. But since then, the Pacers are 8-1 with the only loss coming to the team with the league's best record, Milwaukee. They've gone 7-2 ATS in those games. But on Monday, it appears as if they'll have to overcome more injuries with Myles Turner and Tyreke Evans still on the questionable list. They'll also have to overcome a Detroit team that is starting to build some of its own momentum after winning five out of its last six. That win streak has the Pistons in the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. They just went on the road and whipped Miami by 23 points. Tonight is a big revenge game in the Motor City as the Pistons lost to the Pacers by 37 back in December. Indiana is only 1-4 ATS on the division road and I think they are poised to lose another tonight. Play on DETROIT AAA |
|||||||
02-25-19 | Canadiens -129 v. Devils | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MONTREAL Montreal really needs this game. They just lost a game to Toronto, 6-3, a result I predicted would happen (took the Maple Leafs). That keeps them in fourth place in the Atlantic, but also just one point ahead of the two teams tied for the other Wild Card spot. Just a slight drop and the Canadiens could be out of the playoff picture entirely. Lucky for tonight, they are up against a last place team. New Jersey figures to finish at the bottom of the Metropolitan, a place where they've been most of this season. They just gave up five goals in a loss to a bad Rangers team and are 29th in the league in number of goals given up. The Habs should be in a better position as they have either led or at least been tied in the third period in four of their last five losses. This includes the 6-3 loss in Toronto where they gave up a shocking four goals in the third period, three of them coming in the final two minutes. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
|||||||
02-24-19 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Blues-Wild Anyone thinking that St. Louis was apt to slide after having a franchise 11-game win streak broken best think again. The Blues did lose in Dallas Thursday, snapping that 11-game win streak. But they bounced right back with a 2-1 win over Boston last night. Other than that loss to Dallas, scoring on the Blues has been difficult. Three shutouts in the last 10 days alone, then they gave up just the one goal last night. Minnesota is a team that's gone Under in four straight. So this figures to be a low-scoring game. Two of those last four games for the Wild have seen them get shutout. Yes, one was against the Blues, a 4-0 loss. When playing at home and the total is 5.5, Minnesota is 11-3 Under this season. They're also 4-0 Under in Sunday games. Play UNDER St. Louis-Minnesota AAA |