Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-19 | 49ers +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-46 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO It doesn't happen often, but both teams are 10-2. This is only the fifth such matchup in the last 35 seasons and the first since 2005. San Francisco lost a tough one last week to Baltimore to drop to 10-2. New Orleans won on Thanksgiving, though they didn't make it easy on themselves when they allowed Atlanta to recover two onside kicks. While the records may be the same, other numbers say the 49ers have been the more dominant team. Their point differential is +166, best in the NFC. The Saints point differential is only +50. The Niners outgained the Ravens 6.4 to 4.6 yards per play, which is substantial. The Saints were outgained by the Falcons, had half as many first downs, but managed to force four turnovers. The 49ers defense, which is #1 against the pass, does far better when not facing a mobile QB like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson. Against all other offenses, they have allowed 221.1 yards (total) and 10.6 points/game. Look for them to have success pressuring Drew Brees, who is not mobile. The better team is getting points and that's a combination we like. After falling from the #1 seed in the NFC because of last week's loss, a win here would put San Francisco right back in the driver's seat. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-08-19 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 41.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Browns saw their playoff hopes take a major hit with last week's loss to the Steelers. This game with the Bengals no longer looks like a cakewalk as for the first time all season, Cincinnati is off a win. At least the game is at home where the Browns have won three in a row. This offense is having all sorts of problems but did score 41 two weeks ago here vs. Miami. Browns home games are seeing a total of 46.2 points/game scored this year. That's up from 40.2 on the road. With Andy Dalton back as the starting quarterback for the Bengals, they are a far greater threat to put some points on the board. We saw this last week when they put up 22 on the Jets, ending what had been a 13-game losing streak dating back to last season. That may not sound like much, but it was the most points put up by Cincy since a Week 5 loss to Arizona, a game which Dalton also started. Going with Ryan Finley was not a terrible idea by a first year coach, but it was painfully obvious Finley wasn't very good. Dalton makes this a better offense as he's auditioning for a job (probably somewhere else) next year. The Under is 6-0 in Bengals road games, but this game puts an end to that streak. Play OVER Cincinnati-Cleveland AAA |
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12-07-19 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 112-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Utah is mired in an awful stretch where they've lost three times by 19 or more points and five of six overall. However, lucky for them, tonight's game is against the one team they've beaten during that stretch. Memphis has lost eight of its last nine including 104-93 to the Jazz at home on November 29th. That game stayed well Under the total as neither team shot well. However, the Grizzlies did have a 55-40 halftime lead. For tonight's rematch, we like the Over. The Grizzlies are giving up 116.5 points/game and the Jazz are pretty strong at home where they are 8-2 straight up an averaging 109.0 points/game. They should do their part in getting this one Over the total, but what about Memphis? Well, while Ja Morant is still injured, Jonas Valanciunas has picked up the slack by averaging 28 points and 15.3 rebounds the last three games. The Jazz aren't quite as tight defensively as they've been in past years. Play OVER Memphis-Utah AAA |
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12-07-19 | Colorado v. Kansas -9.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS We're down to 16 teams that have yet to taste defeat this College Basketball season. One of them is involved here and surprisingly it is not Kansas. Colorado has begun 7-0, but of the 10 unbeatens in action today they are one of just two getting points (Arizona @ Baylor is the other). Certainly, it would appear as if this is the time for the Buffaloes to lose for the first time. The only question is: can Kansas cover the spread? We think so. The Jayhawks have been off since the night before Thanksgiving when they rallied to defeat Dayton in overtime to win the Maui Invitational. Returning to Lawrence - where they have not played since November 19th - should be a big boon. Colorado is just 7-19 SU, 7-18-1 ATS its last 26 road games and this figures to be among the most challenging of all of them. This is their first road game this year. The Buffaloes needed a late 15-1 run to beat back Loyola Marymount Wednesday. They seem ripe for the picking here. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 50 | Top | 6-49 | Loss | -112 | 64 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER UAB and Florida Atlantic will play Saturday in Boca Raton for the Conference USA Championship. These are the two previous Championship Game winners with FAU winning in 2017 and UAB winning last year. Obviously, Florida Atlantic has an edge with this Championship Game being played at home. Conference USA is one of only three conferences that play its Title Game at a campus site (American and Mountain West are the others). Though conference rivals, it's not like UAB and FAU are regular opponents. They haven't met since 2014. From 2008-14, they did play six times. All six games went Over. We believe this one is going to go a little differently. UAB has a great defense. They give up only 18.5 points/game. Problem is the offense struggles to score big time when it is on the road. There were back to back games at Tennessee and Southern Miss where the Blazers managed only nine points - total! UAB only faced four teams that are bowl eligible this year. The most points they scored in any of those games was 20. Florida Atlantic surged down the stretch and has won five in a row coming into Saturday. They've averaged an impressive 37.4 points/game during that win streak. But look for the Owls to be held well below that number here. At the same time, three of those five wins saw them allow 17 points or less. Given what we know about the UAB offense, that's a realistic number here. Play UNDER UAB-Florida Atlantic AAA |
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12-07-19 | Miami-OH +7 v. Central Michigan | Top | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 62 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Central Michigan's only win of 2018 was against Maine, an FCS team. But the Chippewas have gone from 1-11 to 8-4 and MAC Championship Game favorite in just a year's time. Collectively, the MAC was pretty weak this year. So the idea any team would be favored by a touchdown in a Championship Game scenario just doesn't seem right. This line surprised us. Miami finished 7-5 overall and won the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. Because they wrapped the division up three weeks ago, it meant they had nothing to play for the last two games. They only beat Akron by three and then lost by 14 last week at Ball State. We played against them both times and won! There is no shame in the RedHawks three non-conference losses as they were to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. The RedHawks are 24-8 straight up their last 34 conference games. Last week saw them rest starters in the second half, which is how a 27-14 halftime lead turned into a 41-27 loss. QB Gabbert got hurt in the 1st half, but is ready to go this week. Both teams were much better at home than on the road in the regular season. But Central Michigan had some bad losses (Buffalo, Western Michigan) and was lucky to beat Ball State after a big comeback. Expect a close game here. Rumors of Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain going to Missouri may be a distraction. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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12-06-19 | Clippers v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 91-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE No idea why this early season showdown isn't on ESPN. But we'll be watching as the Bucks bring a 13-game win streak into Friday. They lost just one time in November and that was in the second night of a back to back, by three points, at Utah. Ironically, that last defeat came one night after the Bucks beat the Clippers. It was 129-124 in LA as the Bucks were actually six-point road favorites. Paul George did not play in that game and neither did Kawhi Leonard. The presence of the two LA superstars is not something we feel is enough to stem the tide here in Milwaukee. The Clippers have been a dominant home team so far, going 13-1 straight up at Staples Center. But they are only 3-5 on the road (2-6 ATS). This will be among the toughest road games of the year, if not THE toughest. The Bucks are 9-1 at home. But they're not just winning, they are consistently blowing teams out. Their average margin of victory here in Milwaukee is 15.1 points/game! Look for them to sweep this season series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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12-06-19 | Magic -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ORLANDO Cleveland has been the gift that keeps on giving for Orlando. The Magic are already 2-0 against the Cavs this season with those wins have come by 9 and 12 points. For this third meeting, the Magic come in on a three-game win streak. This is the second time Orlando has been on a three-game win streak. The first ended with a 113-97 loss to Toronto. But there's a big difference in facing the NBA Champs and the pitiful Cavs. Cleveland has lost 10 of 11 and was just beaten by 27 here at home Tuesday night. That 27-point loss was to a Pistons team that had not won consecutive games all season. The Cavs were never really in the game and trailed by as many as 35 points. While still under .500 for the year, the Magic have always done one thing well. That's play defense. The number of points they allow - 103.4 per game - is tops in the conference. More encouraging is the way they've increased their own scoring recently. The last two games have seen them post season-highs with 127 and 128 points. Orlando may not have a good road record, but neither does Detroit and they just blew out the Cavs. Look for the Magic to win a season-best fourth straight game. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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12-05-19 | Northern Illinois v. St. Mary's UNDER 130.5 | Top | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The last four St. Mary's games have all gone Over. Look for this one to buck that trend. For starters, they'll be matched up with an opponent that can play some defense. Northern Illinois opponents have shot just 38.4% for the season. The spread also suggests that we're in store for an Under. Of the last 28 times St. Mary's has been a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, the Under has come through 20 times. That includes a 5-1 run the last six times in the situation. Northern Illinois is going to need its defense because it doesn't shoot very well on the road. They're hitting below 40% in their three previous road games. St. Mary's has allowed more than 66 points in a game just one time and that was to nationally ranked Utah State. NIU has only had one bad defensive effort thus far. It wasn't the last game where they kept Oakland to 50 points. Both games where Northern Illinois has been an underdog, the game has gone Under. They averaged just 53 points in the two losses. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-St. Mary's AAA |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The Bears, like the Cowboys, are 6-6. But they won on Thanksgiving. It was against a 3rd string QB mind you and by only four points, but a win is a win in this league. Dallas lost to Buffalo 26-15, which was their third setback in the last four games. They've lost six of the last nine games. We just aren't of the mindset to be laying points with this Dallas team on the road right now. Just to illustrate how overvalued this team has been, they've been favored in all but one game this year. They have six losses. This is the third straight week that the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. Chicago has only covered one of its last eight games, but what you may be surprised to learn is that this is only the third time they will be an underdog. Like Dallas, they've been an overvalued team much of the year. Not anymore. Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Both teams are 6-6 and coming off Thanksgiving Day games. Chicago won on Turkey Day, 24-20 over Detroit, while Dallas lost 26-15 to Buffalo. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games and six of the last nine. This is the third straight week the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. However, despite some of the recent struggles, Dallas still has the league's #1 ranked offense. We believe they'll find more success here against the Bears than they did vs. Buffalo or New England. The Bears defense has gotten to face some pretty weak opposing quarterbacks of late, third stringer David Blough being the most recent example. Dak Prescott is the NFL's leading passer. Speaking of quarterbacks, Mitchell Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. This total is just too low. Even if the final score is 24-21, the game goes Over. This could end up being the lowest total for any Dallas game this season. Play OVER Dallas-Chicago AAA |
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12-05-19 | Suns v. Pelicans OVER 235 | Top | 139-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This game has the potential for lots of points. Even though their previous four have all stayed Under, Pelicans games are averaging 232.5 points this year, one of the highest marks in the league. The Suns aren't far behind at 227.7. They just allowed 128 last night and that was to an Orlando team that is last in the league in scoring. It was the third time in the last four games that Phoenix gave up at least 120 points. So New Orleans should break out of its recent scoring slump tonight. The total is obviously high for this one. But it should be. The last four times the Suns and Pelicans have met, the fewest number of points they've combined for is 245! Obviously, all four times the Over hit. Two weeks ago, the Pelicans won 124-121 in Phoenix as both teams shot exceptionally well. The Over is 3-0 this year when the Suns are playing in the second night of a back to back (as they are here). Play OVER Phoenix-New Orleans AAA |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -2 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is a team that continues to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Only the Bucks and Lakers have a better point differential on a per possession basis. Because they lost Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, it was thought the NBA Champs would take a step back this year. That hasn't been the case at all. The Raptors just suffered their first loss at home. It saw them go to overtime with Miami on Tuesday. Given the game went to OT, the fact they lost by 11 points is misleading. They went 0 for 9 from the field in OT, eight of those misses coming from three-point land. Toronto is healthier than its been in awhile with both Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry back. Lowry actually returned for the Heat game. In his absence, the team played remarkably well. They'd won seven in a row prior to Tuesday. Houston is also coming off an overtime loss here. Theirs was a 2OT affair. They blew a 22-point lead, which makes things even more painful. There was a controversial call where a James Harden dunk was disallowed and obviously that was the difference in a 135-133 final. The Rockets had their own long win streak last month (eight in a row), but have actually lost four of six since. They are 5-5 on the road. Toronto deserves more respect at home. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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12-05-19 | Rangers v. Blue Jackets -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 9* on COLUMBUS Neither team is playing "well" at the moment. The Rangers are coming off a 4-1 loss to Vegas where it could be argued that the power play was the difference. Vegas scored twice when it had the man advantage. New York was 0 for 6. Columbus has had issues scoring - whether on the power play or at even strength. They've gone 6-9-2 the last 17 games while being held to three goals or fewer 14 times. They lost 4-2 to Arizona Tuesday right here in Ohio. This boils down to the fact the Blue Jackets have had the Rangers number. Columbus is 5-0-1 the past six meetings. We also don't see the Blue Jackets losing two straight at home. It was a similar spot on 11/29 when they were facing Pittsburgh. Two days earlier they'd dropped a home game to the Flyers. They'd go on to beat the Penguins 5-2. The Rangers are allowing far too many shots on goal. The number is 36.5/game on the road. While they often struggle to score, the Blue Jackets are a good defensive team. Play on COLUMBUS AAA |
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12-04-19 | Capitals -128 v. Kings | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON This seems like an easy one for the Capitals, no? The leaders in the Metropolitan travel to Los Angeles to take on the last place team in the Pacific. There is a 21-point gap between the Caps and the Kings. Sometimes that can be misleading. Not here. Last night's 5-2 win at San Jose made it four straight for Washington. They've scored at least four goals in each of the four wins. This all makes it seem like a real cheap price on what anyone would feel is the better team tonight. If you were wondering, the Capitals are 3-1 in the second night of a back to back so far this season. The Kings lost Monday in Anaheim by a score of 4-2. They have been a better team at home, but most of the teams that come to Staples Center aren't as good as the one visiting tonight. The Capitals are 12-4 after scoring at least four goals the previous game. They've won three straight in this scenario, obviously. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNC Don't look now but Ohio State is #6 in the country ... in basketball! But the unbeaten Buckeyes will face by far their toughest test of the season tonight when they visit #7 North Carolina. This is Ohio State's first road game. North Carolina finished third in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. Friday's 78-74 win over Oregon (a Top 25 team) ended what was an 0-5 ATS streak. The Tar Heels only loss this year was to Michigan in that same Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. There's no shame in that. Ohio State has covered five in a row. But they are 0-5 ATS all-time vs. UNC. Needless to say, we're going to learn just how good this team is tonight. Our view is that the Buckeyes could be at their "peak" right now and it's a good time to sell on them. This will be their biggest test defensively and while UNC has underperformed offensively (by its standard), they've still scored 75 points in every game besides the loss to Michigan. We can't see OSU going to Chapel Hill and winning. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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12-04-19 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 230.5 | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Dallas won another game last night. They beat New Orleans 118-97. Luka Doncic continues to dazzle. He had a career high 18 rebounds in Tuesday's win. The Mavs are now 8-1 straight up and against the spread their last nine games after sweeping a three-game road trip. Tonight the Mavs return home to face Minnesota. The Timberwolves just suffered an embarrassing home loss to Memphis. In a game where they were 12-point favorites, they could only muster 107 points. Minny has gone Under in six of its last seven games. Despite Dallas having the most efficient offense in the NBA, they have gone Under in two straight. They haven't shot better than 43.3% in any of their last four games. Playing in the second night of a back to back should have the usual adverse effect on shooting here. This is just the second time the Mavs have had to do it this year. Minnesota has played really well on the road so far. But we don't expect that to continue moving forward. They are currently 7-2 in road games and averaging 118.3 points/game. Seems destined for a fall. Dallas has had only one game with a total of at least 230 points. It was last night's game, which went Under by 19 points. Play UNDER Minnesota-Dallas AAA |
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12-04-19 | Pacers v. Thunder | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA The Pacers deserve to be favorites here and we anticipate they will be by tipoff. They've won six of their last seven games and shot at least 50% from the field in their last five victories. Oklahoma City has actually performed a whole lot better than we thought they would. There was a mass talent exodus in the offseason with Paul George leaving for LA and Russell Westbrook going to Houston. Yet the Thunder are a somewhat respectable 8-11 SU on the year. But they just swept a home and home from New Orleans, meaning they were 6-11. Both wins over the Pelicans were close as it was a five-point win in OKC and a three-point win in NO. Since starting 0-3, Indiana has gone 13-4 with two of the four losses coming by three points or less. The other two were to Houston and Milwaukee, two of the league's better teams. The big key here is that OKC is just 1-7 SU vs. teams that have winning records. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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12-03-19 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 229.5 | Top | 97-117 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Clippers scored 150 points in their last game and did so in a most unique way. Only four players scored more than 10 points. It was just the fifth time in NBA history that's happened and the first since the '89 Sonics. It wasn't even the first time the Clippers scored 150 this year. They did so against Atlanta on November 16th, also at home. In putting together a 12-1 home record, LA has averaged 116.4 points/game at Staples Center. This is a very good team, obviously. Even with three straight wins, Portland is a disappointing 8-12 this season. But the three-game win streak is encouraging, even if two of the wins came against Chicago. In between beating the Bulls twice, the Blazers scored 136 against Oklahoma City. So expect a high scoring game tonight. The Blazers are 5-1 Over this year when facing a team with a winning record. When these teams played last month, they combined to miss 47 of 62 three-point attempts (Clippers were in the second night of a back to back). That won't happen again. Play OVER Portland-LA Clippers AAA |
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12-03-19 | UTEP v. New Mexico State -4.5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW MEXICO STATE This is actually an early season rematch. UTEP won the first game, 65-50 as 2.5-point underdogs. But that was in El Paso. Tonight's visit to Las Cruces marks the first time the Miners have to hit the road this season. UTEP is undefeated (5-0), but has hardly faced the stiffest competition. Three of their wins have come against non-board teams. They beat New Mexico by three. The win over NMSU, which was the second game of the season, was the most impressive so far. But it speaks volumes that they are still underdogs to a 4-4 team they've already beaten. New Mexico State should be plenty motivated tonight. Not just because they are taking the court with revenge, but also because they were upset by George Mason in their last game. As a 5.5-point favorite, they lost 68-64. That game took place out on the Cayman Islands and saw NMSU blow a 12-point halftime advantage. There are several reasons the Aggies lost that first game vs. UTEP. One was they missed 9 of 11 free throw attempts. It was an all-around bad shooting night at 36.8% from the floor. That shouldn't be the case tonight at home. This Aggies team could easily be 6-2 right now and should get its revenge. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE AAA |
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12-03-19 | Wild v. Panthers -130 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA Minnesota has won three in a row. We took them on Friday when they downed Ottawa 7-2, which was their biggest win to date in terms of margin. But that was at home as was Sunday's 3-1 win over Dallas. The Wild have been a much better team at home so far, going 7-1-2 as opposed to 5-10-2 on the road. They are back on the road tonight, visiting Florida. The Panthers are in second place in the Atlantic Division right now with only the red hot Bruins ahead of them. What's interesting is that the gap between the Panthers and Bruins is almost as large as the gap between the Panthers and the last place team in the division, Detroit. While a division title may not be in the cards for Florida, they still should easily beat this Minnesota team. The Panthers are 7-3-2 SU at home. The favorite has won eight of the last 10 times these teams have played. The home team has won four straight. Minnesota has been without goalie Devan Dubnyk, which will eventually catch up with them. Florida has turned to 25-year old Chris Driedger, who earned a shutout in his first career NHL start on Saturday. The Panthers won 3-0 over Nashville. While the Wild are only averaging 2.4 goals/game on the road, the Panthers average 3.7 here at home. Play FLORIDA AAA |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 49.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Vikings come into this game at 8-3. The Seahawks are 9-2. It should be a good one at Century Link Field on Monday with two of the NFC's best teams looking to improve their respective playoff positioning. Minnesota is off a bye, which seems helpful. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has had his fair share of struggles on Monday Night Football (0-7 SU and ATS!), but he comes into tonight's game with the highest passer rating in the NFL. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is #2. Both teams come in averaging roughly the same number of points per game. Minnesota is at 26.3 while Seattle is at 26.5. The Vikings defense allows about six points/game fewer. The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven of the last eight games. There have been only three games this season where they failed to score 23 points. Five of the last six have gone Over including three straight. The Seahawks are coming off a low-scoring win over Philadelphia (17-9), but before that had scored at least 27 points in eight of nine games. Really surprising is that Seattle allows 29.2 points/game at home. The Vikings defense has allowed an average of 6.2 yards/play the last three games, which isn't good. Play OVER Minnesota-Seattle AAA |
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12-02-19 | Jazz v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Jazz suffered a humiliating 130-110 loss in Toronto last night, which included an all-time bad first half. They were down 77-37 going into the break. That's the largest halftime deficit in Utah history and the eighth largest in NBA history! It was the second time on this road trip where the Jazz got blown out. They also lost by 19 at Indiana on Wednesday. They are just 1-3 SU on said trip, which ends tonight in Philadelphia. The Sixers have won three in a row including beating Indiana on Saturday, which improved their home record to a perfect 9-0. This is the second straight game where the Jazz are facing a team that hasn't lost a home game. The Raptors and Sixers are two of only three teams yet to lose at home. Miami is the other. You have to figure the Jazz will come out motivated tonight. We expect better play at the defensive end where they still rank in the top 10 in efficiency. They are 9th, one spot below Philadelphia. Neither team ranks in the top half in offensive efficiency. This is a rematch from an early season game won by the Jazz in Utah, 106-104. Look for a little less scoring this time. Play UNDER Utah-Philadelphia AAA |
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12-01-19 | Oilers v. Canucks -123 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER Vancouver goes for a home and home sweep tonight against Edmonton. They won in Alberta 5-2 yesterday. Key to last night's win were a couple of early goals, one on the power play and the other short-handed. The teams were even at even strength, though the Canucks had the edge in shots. Despite being the 1st place team in the Pacific, the Oilers give up a lot of goals. They've allowed 19 in the last five games and 34 in the last nine. Three times in their last five games, Vancouver has scored five or more. The Canucks have won 3 of 5 and one of the losses saw them blow a three-goal lead in the final six minutes. Edmonton has pulled off a lot of come from behind victories this year, which isn't really a viable pathway for success. They are 25th in Corsi For %. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
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12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 46 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER The Patriots have held every opponent but one to 14 points or less. That one exception was Baltimore, who hung 37. That's New England's only loss. Tonight, they face another dynamic, playmaking QB in DeShaun Watson. While the Patriots may very well win this game, expect them to give up more points than they usually do. The Texans are 7-4 and lead the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis and Tennessee. With those two teams playing each other this week, a loss here by Houston would guarantee a first place tie in the division. So this is a really important game for the Texans. Unfortunately, they've managed to beat the Patriots only one time in franchise history. Eight of the 11 all-time meetings have gone Over with New England scoring at least 27 in the last 10. Houston has scored at least 20 points in every game but three. Two of those three came in the first four weeks. The other was vs. Baltimore. While they've gone Under in four straight, the only time the defense was really tested, they gave up 41 points. Much is being made of New England's recent offensive struggles. Even Tom Brady has been pretty vocal about it. But we expect a big game from Brady tonight. Houston's defense has allowed over 500 yards rushing in the three games since JJ Watt got hurt. Keep an eye on receiver N'Keal Henry, who caught a TD last week for the Patriots. Play OVER New England-Houston AAA |
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12-01-19 | Celtics -8 v. Knicks | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Boston took a loss in Brooklyn Friday afternoon, a game in which they didn't even face former teammate Kyrie Irving. Maybe it was the early start, but the Celtics didn't come out sharp and fell behind by 14 points in the first quarter. They never really recovered. It should be a much easier time against New York's other team, the Knicks, who have lost five straight to fall to 4-15. In those five straight losses, NY has scored no more than 104 points. They couldn't even hold a 16-point lead against Philadelphia Friday, losing here at home 101-95. The Celtics remain one of the league's premier defensive teams as they are holding opponents to a 43.2 FG%. They have lost two games in a row just one time this season and those were road games vs. the Nuggets and Clippers. The only previous time they lost a game where they were favored to win, they came back and won the next one by 14 points. This is the third meeting already this season. The Knicks played the Celtics tough in Boston, losing by just two, but also lost at home to them by 23. This is a bottom five team with nothing going for it. Play accordingly. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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12-01-19 | Redskins +11 v. Panthers | Top | 29-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON We just don't see Carolina winning this game by double digits. Not after last week's tough 34-31 loss to New Orleans, their fourth loss in the past five weeks. Washington actually won last week, so there's at least some positivity for a 2-win team. The Panthers haven't been a double digit favorite in over three years. Believe it or not, they've been asked to lay this many only six previous times in franchise history! The only two times they were favored by more than a field goal this year came in home games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. They lost both. There are two key injuries Carolina will have to deal with, both of them season enders. The bigger of the two is to DT Dontari Poe, who had been quite the disruptive presence. The other is along the offensive line with Greg Van Roten. The Redskins defense has actually done a somewhat admirable job recently. They've held four of their last six opponents below 20 points and only one scored more than 24. If they can do that again, then this should be an easy cover. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | Top | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We'll try this again. Nine straight Tampa Bay games have gone Over. At least this week, they've got an opponent that shouldn't do much in the way of scoring.Jacksonville has lost three straight (all division games) and averaged only 12 points/game in doing so. Since returning, Nick Foles hasn't meant much. Whether it's been Foles or Gardner Minshew II at quarterback, the Jaguars are still averaging less than 20 points/game this year. The Jaguars defense was gashed badly last week by Tennessee. At one point, they allowed four touchdowns in six plays. Now they are dealing with injuries on top of that. It looks bad and Tampa Bay's offense certainly has big play capability. But look for the Jags somehow, someway to be better on defense. Bucs QB Jameis Winston can certainly be a drive-killer with his turnovers. Jacksonville's offense isn't going to do much here and because of that, the game will stay Under. Each of the last three weeks, Tampa's games have not gone Over until the final minute. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Jacksonville AAA |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI The Bengals are 0-11 (have lost 13 in a row going back to last year), are turning back to Andy Dalton (seems desperate) and are 0-4 ATS this year when getting less than six points. But we're still going to go with them. That may sound suicidal. But consider what we're fading here. The Jets are road favorites just three weeks removed from a 1-7 start. They have won three in a row, scoring 34 in every game. But they are 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season and lost outright both times. Going back more, they are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six times as a favorite. Cincy hasn't won this year, but they've been close numerous times. Over half their defeats have seen them come within one score. In terms of trying to get a win, Dalton is probably better than the ineffective Ryan Finley. The coaching staff was right to see what they had in Finley, but it turns out it wasn't much. Remember that the Jets lost in Miami. Before that, it had been two years since they'd been a road favorite. They lost that time too, 23-0. They have not closed higher than -3 on the road since 2011. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-01-19 | Army +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY Army is 5-6 and needs a win to go bowling for a third consecutive season. Hawaii is 8-3 and has the Mountain West Championship Game (vs. Boise State) on deck. This seems like an excellent opportunity to take Army plus the points. Army is also coming off a bye as well as two easy opponents before that. Hawaii just won a hard fought game last week against San Diego State that came down to a missed field goal. The Warriors won 14-11 to clinch their division and thus move onto the Mt West's Championship Game next week. For the record, we were on Hawaii last week. They were our 10* Game of the Week, in fact! When getting set to face Army, an extra week of preparation is beneficial because of the triple option. Well, not only does Hawaii not have the extra week to prepare, they've got to be thinking about next week's game vs. Boise State. That one is more important to these players and coaching staff. As for Army, winning here is all that matters so that they can get to six wins. When coming off a bye, they've gone 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS. They've also covered 9 of 13 as underdogs with five outright wins. Hawaii is 3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS coming off back to back wins. Play on ARMY AAA |
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11-30-19 | Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 236.5 | Top | 111-158 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER There are definitely some distinct patterns emerging with these two teams. Really, the recent results couldn't be any more different. Houston has won 9 of its last 12 games (also going 10-2 ATS) while Atlanta has lost 12 of 13, including eight straight. The Hawks lost last night, in overtime, 105-104 at Indiana. But the Hawks have at least managed to halt one streak this week. Prior to Wednesday's 111-102 loss to Milwaukee, they'd gone Over in 10 consecutive games. Last night's loss also stayed Under even though the game went to overtime. This many Atlanta games going Over the total is a little bit surprising in that they are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. While also bad defensively, they're not quite as inept, ranking only 24th in efficiency there. The Rockets are 6-1 to the Under when facing an Eastern Conference team this season. They are 10-4 their last 14 games overall. Both times these teams met last season, the Under hit. The totals were pretty similar to the number we're getting tonight. Play UNDER Atlanta-Houston AAA |
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11-30-19 | Youngstown State v. Central Michigan -6.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CENTRAL MICHIGAN As a double digit dog, Central Michigan was up 50-32 at halftime on undefeated DePaul Tuesday. Not only did the Chippewas end up not winning, they also failed to cover! A disastrous second half yielded a final score of 88-75. They were getting 11 from the oddsmakers. CMU will need to "dust itself off" as they are back home Saturday to take on Youngstown State. This is a team they defeated last year, on the road, 100-94. They were 8-point favorites, meaning that they didn't cover there either. But it also means we're getting some good value. Here, the Chippewas are favored by less at home than they were last year on the road. Unless there's been some substantial improvement with YSU that we're unaware of, then this line makes no sense. The Penguins have played only one team of any real note, that being Louisville. They lost by 33 points. They've also lost by 22 to Akron and 12 to Louisiana. Both of those were road games. Central Michigan's schedule hasn't been all that impressive either, but they are among the highest scoring teams in the country at 96.1 points/game. Coming off the disappointing loss, we're looking for them to win in blowout fashion here. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-30-19 | Boston College +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE Boston College has won exactly 7 games in five of Steve Adazzio's six seasons here in Chesnut Hill. The outlier season was 2015 when the Golden Eagles went 3-9. To get to 7 wins again this year, they are going to have to first win this week and then a bowl game. There won't be a bowl for B.C. if they lose this week at Pittsburgh. They enter in at 5-6 after losing 40-7 last week at Notre Dame. This will now be the third try for six wins. They also lost at home to Florida State three weeks ago. Fortunately for BC, Pitt doesn't have much to play for here. The Panthers have 7 wins, so they'll be in a bowl. But they were shutout last week, 28-0, by Virginia Tech. We question whether this Panthers team can even score enough to cover a spread this big. They only average 20.2 points/game. None of Pitt's seven wins have been by more than 10 points. With only one meeting as ACC rivals, there's some unfamiliarity here. Pitt has been outscored despite a 7-4 record - by 1.3 points/game. B.C. has a virtually identical scoring differential. So this is a line that should be closer to a field goal. Some real value on a underdog that will be more motivated than the favorite. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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11-30-19 | Georgia v. Georgia Tech OVER 46.5 | Top | 52-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Georgia will be playing LSU in the SEC Championship Game next week, but first they've got this date with Georgia Tech. It shouldn't be a very difficult game as the Yellow Jackets are struggling this year. We look for the Bulldogs to score a lot of points in this one, many more than they've been scoring against SEC defenses. Georgia Tech used to run the option under Paul Johnson, but has transitioned to a more pro style offense under first year coach Geoff Collins. As you'd expect, it's been a difficult transition with personnel fit for the old system. The Yellow Jackets are averaging only 17.5 points/game. But they did just score 28 in win over NC State last week. QB James Graham accounted for all four touchdowns, three throwing and one running. Georgia hasn't scored more than 27 points in six straight games. But look at some of the defenses they've had to go up against. Georgia Tech is giving up over 30 points/game, so expect this to be a big day for QB Jake Fromm and the rest of the Bulldogs offense. Georgia did score at least 30 in four of its first five games including 55+ in the two non-conference games that weren't Notre Dame. Six straight Unders is the streak Georgia is on coming into this game. It's time for the offense to finally get rolling again. They've scored 83 on Ga Tech the last two years and can send this one Over by themselves. Play OVER Georgia-Georgia Tech AAA |
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11-29-19 | Bucks -10 v. Cavs | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Cavs aren't a good team. They've lost eight of nine and just got beat here at home by Orlando by 12 points. That doesn't bode well as Milwaukee comes to town Friday night. The Bucks are 15-3 and have won nine in a row. They look every bit as strong as they did last year when they won 60 games. Not only have the Cavs lost eight of nine games, they've also gone 2-7 against the spread. They rank near the bottom of the league both offensively and defensively. Milwaukee beat Cleveland by 17 earlier in the year with seven players scoring in double figures. This is an elite team (maybe the best in the league?) matched up against one of the five worst. Should be easy pickings. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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11-29-19 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama +11 | Top | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH ALABAMA South Alabama is finishing up a terrible season here (Jaguars come in at 1-10 SU), but we're banking on Arkansas State being a disinterested favorite Friday afternoon. Despite having very different records, these Sun Belt opponents may not be as far apart as you think. Arkansas State is 7-4. All they can do with a win here is improve their bowl position. The Red Wolves have won four in a row, but the last three have all been decided by seven points or less. Compare that to poor South Alabama who has generally been competitive, but can't quite get over the hump. Having a freshman QB hasn't helped the Jaguars cause, but at least there have been signs of improvement from Desmond Trotter. Key here is that Arkansas State has a terrible defense. The Red Wolves have allowed the second most yards in the Sun Belt. They allow 34.9 points/game overall and 41.6 points/game on the road. Despite a winning record, they have given up more points than they've scored this year. They've been outgained the last two weeks. South Alabama hasn't beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win came against Jacksonville State. But they are playing the final game at home, which should mean some motivation. The last three years have seen the Jaguars go 3-0 in SBC home finales. Arkansas State isn't likely to take this game too seriously. They'll be happy with just winning, but don't look for a blowout. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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11-29-19 | West Virginia v. TCU -13.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU has to pick itself up here after a close loss to Oklahoma last Saturday night. Lucky for them is that they have the motivation of needing to win here to get to a bowl game. West Virginia should be happy to oblige. This has been a bad season in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have lost six out of their last seven games. Their hopes of going to a bowl ended last week when they lost at home to Oklahoma State by a score of 20-13. TCU has had its share of close defeats as well. Five of the six times they've lost this year, the final margin has been within a touchdown. But they were in this exact situation last year, needing to win the final regular season game. They did just that, beating Oklahoma State by a touchdown. It's a weaker opponent this time around, one that has nothing left to play for. The Horned Frogs also have some revenge on their minds after losing 47-10 last season in Morgantown. To us, it's not a question of whether or not TCU wins. They will. It's a question of "by how much?" With WVU having gone 5-10-2 its last 17 tries as an underdog, it doesn't look good for them Friday afternoon in Ft. Worth. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-29-19 | Senators v. Wild -187 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MINNESOTA Ottawa isn't a good team and they are set to embark on a five-game road trip that will take them all around North America. With only one goal scored in the last two games, we don't like their chances very much today in Minnesota. The Wild aren't exactly tearing it up either as they are the last place team in the Central. But they've shown more life than the Senators have. They just won in New Jersey on Wednesday, which was the fourth time in the last five games they played on the road. The one home game was a 3-2 win against Colorado. Minnesota simply hasn't gotten to play many times at their own rink this season. Of their 25 games played, 17 have been on the road. Only once have the Wild lost a home game in regulation. They are 5-1-2 at the Xcel Center. They also shut out the Senators earlier this year, 2-0 in Ottawa. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-29-19 | DePaul v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA DePaul pulled off a miracle on Tuesday. Trailing 50-32 at halftime vs. Central Michigan, they rallied not just to win, but to cover as 12-point favorites. The final score was 88-75. The Blue Demons are now 7-0, but are underdogs Friday to a 3-3 Minnesota team. For good reason. Not just is the game on the road, but one of their top rotation players (Devin Gage) is nursing an ankle injury. Only six players saw the floor for more than 10 minutes against Central Michigan. DePaul's defense was also very bad in the 1st half of that last game. They were slow to rotate, constantly falling for pump-fakes and had allowed 50 points by halftime. It was a complete turnaround in the 2nd half, but that's a game they were lucky to win, let alone cover. They were basically down for the first 30 minutes of the game. Minnesota has three losses, but two were on the road and the other to a pretty good Oklahoma team. The Golden Gophers beat Central Michigan in much more convincing fashion last week, winning by 25. All three times Minnesota has been favored, they have covered the spread. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-29-19 | Missouri v. Arkansas OVER 54 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Missouri's season has completely gone off a cliff with five straight losses. Adding insult to injury, their bowl ban for 2019 was just upheld. Had the ban been overturned, the Tigers could have gotten to a bowl by winning the regular season finale.If there's one team in the SEC that's definitely in worse shape than Mizzou, it's Arkansas. The Razorbacks already fired their coach and a loss today would mean a second consecutive 2-10 season. With nothing on the line but alleged "pride" Friday afternoon in Fayatteville, we expect plenty of points to be scored in this one. Really, does either side have any pride left? Arkansas just lost its first game for interim Barry Lunney Jr, 56-20 to LSU. They at least covered as 40+ point underdogs. But it was the fifth straight game the Razorbacks allowed at least 45 points. Mizzou will relish facing a defense like Arkansas's as the Tigers have had all sorts of issues scoring during their losing skid. At least last week they got to 20 points against Tennessee. The previous four games saw the Tigers a total of only 27 points. We'll call for their best offensive performance since October 12th here. The Over is 7-2 in Arkansas previous nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (Missouri hasn't won on the road in 2019.) The Over is also 10-4 when the Hogs are off an ATS win. Play OVER Missouri-Arkansas AAA |
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11-29-19 | Miami-OH v. Ball State -3 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALL STATE The first thing that caught our eye here was that a 4-7 team was favored over a 7-4 opponent. Our raw numbers are in agreement that Ball State is in fact the better team, so we'll be laying the points in this "unique situation." There have been four instances of a 4-7 team (or worse) being favored over a 7-4 team (or better). Sadly for our case, the chalk has never covered. But there are two factors that differentiate this game from all previous incarnations. One is that this is a conference game. Two is that the underdog has a more important game on deck. Miami is playing for the MAC Championship next week, which will be its first appearance in that game since 2007. They do not yet know their opponent. It'll be Central Michigan if the Chippewas beat Toledo, a game that takes place at the same time as this one. The MAC Championship is what is on the players and coaches minds. For Ball State, this is basically their "bowl game" as they've got nothing else to play for. The Cardinals deserve a better fate than staying home for the postseason. They've lost four in a row with three of those losses coming by a total of eight points. There's some revenge in the air in Muncie with Ball State having lost to Miami three years in a row. Note BSU is averaging 41.0 points/game at home. Miami averages just 15.8 points/game on the road. Play on BALL STATE AAA |
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11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons +7 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Everyone will be expecting the Saints to exact revenge for their shocking loss to the Falcons three weeks ago. That game saw New Orleans come in as a 14-point favorite and lose 26-9. The 31-point difference between the spread and the final outcome was one of the largest we’ve seen this NFL season. Winning is one thing, but covering the spread is a different outcome. For the Saints, beating anyone by more than a touchdown has been a problem despite their 9-2 record. A 34-31 escape against Carolina last week was the Saints sixth win this year by seven points or fewer. Atlanta had a great follow up to the win over New Orleans. They beat Carolina 29-3. But then last week, they looked more like the team that started the season 1-7. They lost at home to Tampa 35-22. They still haven’t won a home game since Week 2! Getting back to New Orleans lack of domination, they have a point differential of only +42. That might sound alright, but nine teams are better and not all of them have as many wins. Last week easily could have been a loss, but Carolina missed a chip shot field goal. This spread is just too high. The Falcons had been playing so much better before running into a Bucs team that caught fire for one game. Eventually, a home game will be won. Their pass rush swallowed up Drew Brees in the first game and the Saints offensive line is now weaker due to injuries. Atlanta is capable of beating New Orleans twice. PLAY ON ATLANTA AAA |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2.5 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MISS ST This line seems awfully strange given that Mississippi State needs the game to get bowl eligible. Rival Ole Miss is 4-7 SU, so you won't be seeing them in any bowl. Obviously, the Rebels will still come out motivated given who the opponent is. But it's not as if MSU won't feel the same way, if not more so, based on what a loss would mean to them. While its easy to say Miss State has regressed under Joe Moorhead, a lot of talent was lost from last year's team which had the #2 defense in all of the FBS. Especially along the defensive line. The Bulldogs have given up over 2x as many points this year compared to last. But looking at MSU's season, it's easy to see what the problem is. They just didn't fare well against good teams. As underdogs, their record is 0-4 straight up and against the spread. They lost those four games by an average of 26.5 points/game. But the Bulldogs are slight favorites here, as they should be, for a game they have to win. They'll be looking to reverse a trend that has seen the visitor win the last four Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has just two wins since Oct 5th. It was against New Mexico State. Their two SEC wins were against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, each of whom occupy last place in the respective divisions. The only other Rebels win was against a FCS school. As an underdog, they are 0 for 6 (SU) this year. Miss State is the better team and we will play accordingly. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE AAA |
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11-27-19 | Wolves v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This hasn't been your average Spurs team. The current stretch - where they've lost nine of 10 - is one of the worst ever under Greg Popovich. The one win was against the Knicks. Part of the regression, maybe even the biggest one, is defense. Normally, you see San Antonio among the league leaders in points allowed. This year, they are giving up 115.3 points/game. Saturday's win over the Knicks marked the only time in the last three weeks the Spurs didn't allow at least 110 points. They've allowed 110+ in all but four games this year. Minnesota just scored 125 on Atlanta two nights ago, ending a streak where they'd gone Under four straight times. The Timberwolves aren't very sound themselves defensively. They also give up more than 115 points/game. But one interesting tidbit about this T'wolves team is how much they are scoring on the road. Their 119.2 points/game scoring average in road games is second highest in the league. So one of the highest totals of the Popovich era shouldn't surprise you here. Minnesota is 6-0 Over this year against teams with a losing record. The Spurs are 6-12. The Over has hit seven of the last eight times these teams have met. Play OVER Minnesota-San Antonio AAA |
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11-27-19 | Canucks v. Penguins -165 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 7* on PITTSBURGH Pittsburgh came through for us on Monday, winning a shootout against Calgary. The Penguins now look to complete a perfect three-game homestand as they host Vancouver Wednesday night. The Canucks have not played all that well of late, though they did pull a couple upsets on this road trip. Still, despite wins in Nashville and Washington, Vancouver has lost 8 of its last 11 games. They were beaten 2-1 in Philadelphia Monday night as they were limited to just 17 shots on goal. Even the two wins on this road trip were not the most well-played games by the Canucks. They got an unusual five power play goals against Nashville, the kind of edge they may not enjoy again the rest of this season. Against Washington, they pulled off a late rally. It's not been a good November for the team hailing from B.C. Pittsburgh is still trying to work its way through the Sidney Crosby injury, but there's more than enough talent on hand to compensate for his absence. This is Vancouver's fifth straight road game, not a great spot, while the Penguins are playing a third straight at home. Canucks average 2.5 goals on the road. Penguins average 3.4 at home. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-27-19 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -6 | Top | 78-81 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Unlike many of the games on the Wednesday slate, this is not a Holiday Tournament. Georgia State welcomes Charlotte to Atlanta with both teams looking to get over .500 for the year. Georgia State is 3-3 while Charlotte is 2-2. Georgia State is a perfect 5-0 ATS, including a cover against Duke. The Panthers will be happy to be back home where they've only gotten to play once so far. That one time was the first game of the season where they blew out Brewton-Parker 104-35. Charlotte lost its last game, 64-55 to Appalachian State. That game took place last Thursday. The 49ers were coming off two straight upsets, one over Davidson and the other over Wake Forest. Both were at home. The last game was a reality check for Charlotte as they were held to 55 points on 36.7% shooting. Can't see them pulling off a third upset in four games here. Georgia State, who has scored 80 points in four of its six games, is going to be extra motivated upon this return home. Charlotte is 0-2 on the road. An afternoon start time is an advantage for the home side. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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11-26-19 | Wizards +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Denver is 12-3. They've won five games in a row and nine of their last 10. They were a double digit favorite in their last game and covered the spread (barely), beating a rising Suns team 116-104. Washington is a young team with a 5-9 record. But the Wizards can score. They are averaging 119.1 points/game. Only Milwaukee scores more than that. The Wizards aren't great defensively and they did just drop a home game to Sacramento on Sunday. But they were favorites in that loss and got held to 106 points. Hitting their scoring average here would likely mean a very easy ATS win, given how many points they are getting. Before they lost to the Kings, Washington had covered five straight times. They won three of the five games, including two as underdogs. Denver's defense definitely presents a challenge. But the Wizards are 8-1 ATS as underdogs so far and 6-1 ATS on the road. Because the Nuggets play at the second slowest pace in the league, they aren't likely to break away in this one. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-26-19 | Bruins v. Canadiens OVER 6 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER An 'Original Six' rivalry is renewed tonight in Montreal where the Canadiens host the Bruins. The visitors are playing as well as any team in the league currently. They have 35 points (t2nd) and lead the Atlantic Division. Boston's +23 goal differential is best in the league. But not all news is good coming out of Beantown. Center Patrice Bergeron won't be making the trip because of a lower-body injury. The Bruins also gave up four goals in their last game, but were fortunate enough to still win in overtime (5-4 at Minnesota). Montreal is also coming off a high-scoring game, but theirs was a 6-5 loss to the Rangers. They blew a 4-0 lead in that one despite outshooting the Rangers 43-34. With both teams off such high-scoring affairs, our call for tonight is on the Over. You've got two teams averaging 3.5 goals/game. Boston has at least four goals in four of its last six. The Over is 4-1 the last five games for Montreal with them scoring 5 two different times. Looking at the goalies, Boston is going with their backup tonight (Jaroslav Halak) while Carey Price has really struggled for the Canadiens of late. Play OVER Boston-Montreal AAA |
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11-26-19 | Mercer v. St Bonaventure -6 | Top | 51-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. BONAVENTURE What makes this an interesting matchup is that the underdog is off an upset win while the favorite lost in that same role its last game. We'll use this backdrop and take what the undervalued side on Tuesday, which is the chalk. St. Bonaventure is only 1-4 after losing at Canisius on Saturday. The Bonnies were five-point favorites there and lost 61-57. It was not a good shooting night nor did they do an effective job at rebounding. But before losing to Canisius, the Bonnies did win as underdogs over Rutgers at a neutral site. The problem for this team so far is that they have lost straight all three times they've been favored! The third time may not have been the charm agains Canisius, but we believe the fourth will tonight vs. Mercer. The underdog Bears had not covered the first two times they were underdogs this season, but then sprung a surprise on IL-Chicago Saturday, winning that game 72-68 as 4.5-point dogs. Mercer gives up a lot of points. An average of 80.2 per game to be exact. St. Bonaventure is allowing just 67.8. The favorite is hungry for a win at home where they are 0-2. Bonnies get the win and cover. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE AAA |
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11-25-19 | Tennessee State +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 49-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TN STATE San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread in addition to being undefeated, so it's no wonder that they are such large favorites Monday night. But the Tennessee State team that are hosting just hung tough with #12 Texas Tech and won't be intimidated in the least. That game at Texas Tech saw Tennessee State lost by only 15 as a 24.5 point underdog. With that cover, the Tigers move to 20-6 ATS the last 26 times they have been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24.5 points. San Diego State's last game against Long Island was not lined. But the Aztecs won by 17. The only game that's been closer for them was the 76-71 upset at BYU where they were a 4-point underdog. Yet consistently winning by double digits is hard in this sport. Tennessee State's only loss besides the one to Texas Tech was by 2 points at UT-Chattanooga. They trailed Texas Tech by only five at halftime. Look for the underdog to stay within the number here. Play on TENNESSEE STATE AAA |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES Baltimore is really rolling. A six-game win streak has included victories over Seattle, New England and Houston. Granted, they’ve also inflated their point differential at the expense of some bad teams. But there is no denying the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL right now. But that distinction can often come with a price. That price is catching attention from the betting public. The public has driven this number up as the Ravens are laying a field goal to the Rams in LA. The Rams haven’t been home dogs in quite awhile. The only time it’s happened under Sean McVay was a meaningless Week 17 game back in 2017. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in primetime this year. They beat Cleveland on the road, covered at Seattle and then last week beat Chicago. West Coast teams, because of the body clock issue, have the edge over Eastern counterparts in night games. Over the last four games, the Rams defense has allowed just 44 points. That’s the fewest points allowed by any team the last four weeks. The run by the defense has coincided with the Jalen Ramsey trade. On offense, they’ll be getting WR Cooks back from injury tonight. Baltimore is due for an off game. Our raw number suggest this line should be a pick ‘em. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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11-25-19 | Flames v. Penguins -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH Calgary was able to snap a 6-game losing streak on Saturday as they rallied to beat Philadelphia in a shootout. But look for the joy to be short-lived. Tonight they head to Pittsburgh, a place where most Western Conference teams have not fared well this year. The Penguins are still trying to work their way through the Sidney Crosby injury. But by re-tooling their top line, things look like they'll be just fine without their superstar. Malkin-Guentzel-Rust are playing quite well with each other. Malkin has 20 points in the last six games while his new linemates have combined for six goals. The Flames don't do much scoring on the road where they are averaging a league-low 1.8 goals/game. During their 6-game losing streak, they were shutout three times and all three were away from home. Pittsburgh's goal differential is +18. Calgary is at -15. The Flames have also lost 7 of 11 games to teams that have winning records. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-25-19 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -9.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on INDIANA Memphis deserves some credit for keeping it close against the Lakers Saturday as they lost by only 1 points. But it was still a third straight loss at home. Playing at Indiana Monday looks to be a mismatch for a team with the third worst scoring differential in the league. Indiana has won two straight and six of eight. The only losses were to Houston and Milwaukee, who are two of the league's better teams. The Pacers seem to have settled in nicely as one of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference, a place where we expected them to be coming into the season. Injuries haven't even really slowed the Pacers down. Victor Oladipo hasn't played at all this year. Malcolm Brogden is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Six Pacers were in double figures in the last game, a 111-106 win over Orlando. Memphis is giving up 117.8 points per game, which is a lot. Only three teams allow more. Indiana is allowing only 98.0 points over its last five games. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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11-24-19 | Pelicans v. Clippers -12 | Top | 109-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS This is a terrible spot for New Orleans. They lost in Utah last night and gave up 128 points despite the Jazz not having Rudy Gobert. Defensive woes are nothing new for the Pelicans. They’ve allowed an average of 119.6 points in all games this season. That’s the second most in the league. Tonight they are up against the Clippers, who have been a dominant home team thus far. LA is 10-1 at Staples Center after beating Houston here on Friday. The Clippers were upset out in New Orleans 10 days ago and so they’ll be looking to exact some revenge tonight. They have gone 6-3-1 ATS their last 10 revenge games. A big spread does not scare us as the Clippers are already winning by more than 10 points/game at home. An opponent that one of the worst defensive teams and played last night should make for easy prey. The Pelicans have been playing short-handed and the Clippers have the highest scoring bench in the entire NBA. New Orleans was down by as much as 20 last night. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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11-24-19 | Nets v. Knicks OVER 214.5 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE This is a revenge game for Tennessee. They lost to Jacksonville in Week 3, on a Thursday night, 20-7. They were actually a small road favorite there as the Jags were 0-2 at the time. Jacksonville has not swept the season series since 2005. The Titans have won the last four home meetings and the home team is on a 12-5 ATS run in this rivalry. We’re not convinced about the long-term viability of Ryan Tannehill as the Titans quarterback, but he is 3-1 as the starter. Jacksonville has now dropped both games Nick Foles has started. They didn’t look good last week in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. Foles is 4-10 ATS as a starter in his career in games not with the Eagles. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 29th vs. the run. Titans running back Henry should have a big game. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals +7 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though. Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. Cincinnati will stay motivated until they win, but this is a game they REALLY want. They’ve lost nine straight times to the Steelers. They’ve lost 12 games in a row period, but are 6-6 ATS in that time. The Bengals average 17.5 points at home. That’s more than the Steelers do on the road. Take the points. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 37.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though. Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. But the Bengals actually average 17.5 points at home. This is a very low total, which isn’t surprising, but the public pounding the total down opens up an opportunity. It may seem odd to take the dog and the Over in the same matchup, but it’s the combo we like. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Cincinnati AAA |
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11-24-19 | Lions v. Redskins OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -103 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Another Over we like. A Washington game finally went Over last week, but they were on the wrong side of a 34-17 final score. It stopped a six-game Under streak. On the bright side, it was the most points the Redskins scored in a game in almost a month. They haven’t topped 17 since Week 2. But rookie Dwayne Haskins is now the starting QB. This will be the weakest defense Haskins has faced in his pro career. Detroit gives up 412.7 yards per game as well as 27.2 points. Only once in the last five games have they allowed less than 26 points. Four of those games have gone Over. So Washington should have ample opportunity to score this week. Still no Matt Stafford for the Lions. But seeing as the Redskins just gave up 34 points to the Jets that shouldn’t be a problem. Play OVER Detroit-Washington AAA |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons UNDER 52 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -103 | 41 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER So Tampa Bay is on an eight-game Over streak. Some of the games have gone Over by a lot. But recently, the line between Over and Under has been a lot thinner. Last week’s Over with New Orleans was a 34-17 game with a 50-point total. It was a late pick-6 that sent things Over. Painful loss for us. Part of the reason we’re going to try the Under again this week is the defensive resurgence of the Falcons. The last two games have seen Atlanta hold the Saints and Panthers to just 12 combined points.The last four Falcons games have gone Under as well. While Atlanta’s defense has improved the last two games, their offense may be set for a decline. Injuries are starting to pile up as both RB Freeman and TE Hooper will miss this game. For what it’s worth, the Bucs defense has allowed the second fewest rush yards. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD since before the bye. They got a special teams TD last week, which probably isn’t happening again. These are two of the least efficient offenses in the red zone. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Atlanta AAA |
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11-23-19 | San Diego State v. Hawaii -3 | Top | 11-14 | Push | 0 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII There's certainly a lot on the line here. The winner of this late night affair wins the Mountain West Conference's West Division. Lucky for Hawaii that they get the game at home where they have a distinct advantage. San Diego State may be 5-0 on the road, but this is the toughest trip in the conference. Hawaii could only manage a 21-7 win over a bad UNLV team last week. But the Warriors apparently didn't take the Rebels very seriously. QB Cole McDonald, who has thrown for over 3000 yards this season, didn't even start. The coaching staff wanted to evaluate redshirt freshman QB Chevan Cordeiro and let him play the first quarter. We had the Under in that game and loved seeing Cordeiro throw two interceptions and fail to direct a single scoring drive. Once McDonald came in though, Hawaii quickly seized control of the game. This game likely comes down to Hawaii's offense vs. SDSU's defense. Hawaii is averaging 36.2 points and over 500 yards in home games. The Aztecs are giving up less than 14 points and 300 yards. Hawaii's defense isn't great, but it also allowed only seven points last week. San Diego State has only three games where they scored more than 25 points. If Hawaii gets going like normal, then the Aztecs simply won't be able to keep pace. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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11-23-19 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER After treating us as our Game of the Month play on Thursday (beat Winnipeg 5-3), we thought we'd call on Dallas again, this time for our top Total of the Week. The Stars have simply been on fire of late. They've gone 12-1-1 the last 14 games and won five straight. In this five game run, the last four have also gone Over. Dallas is averaging 4.6 goals its last five games and has scored at least four in 8 of the last 14. Saturday's opponent is Chicago, a team that was scoring quite a bit during a recent four-game win streak. The Blackhawks totaled 21 goals in those four games, but have since dropped two in a row. In both losses, they allowed four goals. One reason Dallas should be licking its chops here is that Chicago gives up lots of shots. The number of shots is quite staggering. 36.8 per game for the year. 39.2 on the road. 41.7 in division games. The Stars will take advantage of that, but don't be surprised if they give up a few. The Over is 3-1-1 the last five meetings. Play OVER Chicago-Dallas AAA |
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11-23-19 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 214 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Both the Heat and Sixers played Friday. Miami used a big 1st half to run away from Chicago, which was a win for us, while Philly pulled away late for a 114-105 win here at home over San Antonio. That was a loss on this end. The Heat game also went Over, but only due to the fact they let Chicago make a game of it late by giving up 41 points in the 4th quarter. Miami is a much better defensive team than that as they are tied for second in the league in efficiency. Philly stayed Under against San Antonio despite each team shooting above 50%. We're convinced we won't be seeing those kind of FG%'s in this game as both teams will be a little tired. The last time Miami was in a back to back, they lost 90-85 to the Lakers. Last time in the situation for the Sixers, they were held to just 97 points. With last night's win, the 76ers improved to 6-0 at home. They are giving up just under 100 points/game in those six wins. They've also won three in a row overall and have given up no more than 105 points in any of those three victories. Miami is also on a win streak, theirs currently at five games. Last night snapped a streak of four straight times shooting over 50%, however. Play UNDER Miami-Philadelphia AAA |
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11-23-19 | Arkansas +43.5 v. LSU | Top | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARKANSAS Few will want to touch Arkansas as they are in midst of a lost season and facing the #1 team in the country Saturday night. But this is obviously a lot of points. LSU is good, but they've never had to lay more than 40 in SEC play. That tidbit caught our attention this week. While LSU appears on its way to the College Football Playoff, Arkansas has already fired its coach. Chad Morris didn't even make it two full seasons in Fayatteville. He was fired two weeks ago after the Razorbacks lost 45-19 at home to Western Kentucky. As abrupt as the firing was, it was not the least bit surprising. So now long-time assistant Barry Lunney Jr has been tapped as the interim. The Hogs had last week off, so Lunney and his staff have had two weeks to prepare for LSU. Two months wouldn't be enough for them win this game, but with no bowl game, this team is going to approach this game like it's the "Super Bowl." Expect an inspired effort by the underdog Saturday night. As for the other sideline, LSU coach Ed Orgeron has made it pretty clear that he's going to pull starters as early as possible. That will give Arkansas opportunities in the second half. While the Tigers offense is record-setting, the defense isn't that great. They gave up 614 yards in last week's 58-37 win against Mississippi. It was the fourth game this year that LSU allowed at least 450 yards and 37 points. Rutgers covered against Ohio State last week. Arkansas can do the same this week. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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11-23-19 | California +2.5 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAL It's been a decade since California has won "The Big Game." Nine straight losses to Stanford have come by an average of 19 points/game. But we feel this will be the year for the crew from Berkeley. In recent years, Cal has definitely closed the gap on their rivals from Palo Alto. For this, the 122nd meeting, the Bears actually come in with the better won-loss record. It's been a long time since that was the case. Now after a 4-0 start, the Bears have lost five of six. Like Stanford, they are incredibly banged up coming into this game. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. But on the defensive side of the ball, we like what Cal has to offer more. We played against Stanford last week. They lost 49-22 at Washington State and had just six yards rushing. We warned you about the Cardinal's offensive ineptitude after they could only score 13 points on a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. While Stanford needs to win here and next week to be bowl eligible, we don't think there's any doubt as to which side will be more motivated Saturday down on "The Farm." This nine-year losing streak has to be eating at the Cal players and the senior class doesn't want to go out 0-4. Cal is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year (three outright wins) and 10-5 ATS its last 15 road games. Stanford is 3-7 ATS in all games this season. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA |
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11-23-19 | Syracuse +9 v. Louisville | Top | 34-56 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE One of the more inexplicable results we've seen in College Football this year was Syracuse beating Duke last week. The Orange had gone nearly two months without a win over a FBS foe. They were 8.5-point underdog on the road. Yet they ran wild for 286 yards on the ground and won 49-6. Just because we did not see that result coming does not mean it is without merit. Syracuse is a proud program still trying to make a bowl game. Last year's 10-win season was capped by a bowl victory. You can bet Dino Babers' team would like to get back there. Louisville is already bowl eligible, a major achievement after winning just two games in 2018. First year head coach Scott Satterfield has done a nice job here. But the Cardinals as a favorite is something we want no part of quite yet. This game marks the first time under Satterfield that Louisville is laying more than four points to a conference opponent. The Cardinals were -4 last week at NC State and won 34-20. But they also lost the total yardage battle in that game. They won the turnover battle though (+3) and also pulled off a fake field goal for a touchdown. It also helped that their opponents played without their top five cornerbacks! What a difference a year makes. Last year, Syracuse won 10 games and was considered the rising program in the ACC. Now its Louisville in that same position. We just aren't convinced that the favorite belongs in this price range - yet. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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11-23-19 | DePaul v. Boston College +2 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON COLLEGE The list of unbeaten teams left in College Basketball has dwindled down to 53. Of those 53, only 22 have managed to get to 5-0. One of the bigger surprises on the list in DePaul. We believe the Blue Demons are set to experience their first loss. They lost to Boston College last year 65-62 as a 4.5-point home favorite. DePaul's most impressive win was their only previous road game, an upset of Iowa as 9.5 point underdogs. The Blue Demons shot an outrageous 61% that day. Really, they've been shooting the lights out all year. But eventually that's going to stop. Facing a B.C. team that has held its first five opponents to below 40% shooting seems like the logical time. Boston College also has an upset win on the road, theirs at the expense of South Florida where they were +6.5. The Eagles only loss was here at home to Belmont, 100-85, a game where they were actually a slight dog. They bounced back from that with a 72-68 win over Eastern Washington Wednesday night.While DePaul hasn't played in a week, they're bound to lose. The week off also may leave them rusty. They are 3-7 ATS the L10 times they've played with three or more days rest. B.C. already has beaten not just USF but also Wake Forest. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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11-22-19 | Rockets +5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON Houston saw it's eight-game win streak come to an end Wednesday night in Denver. Notable is that they'd also covered the spread in all eight games. But the Nuggets were able to hold them to a season low 95 points and James Harden to just 27. The Clippers now have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard playing together. The first game with both on the court was a 107-104 win over Boston. The game went to overtime as LA won for the second time this week by three points or less. The Rockets will not be an underdog many times this season. Considering they are the highest scoring team in the league, it's worth taking them when they are. As we just mentioned, the Clippers two wins this week have both been close (total of 5 points). These teams already went against each other once this year. Houston won 102-93 at home. That was nine days ago. The big difference here is tonight's game being in LA. The Clippers are 9-1 at home, but only 1-4 on the road. Still we don't think they should be this big of favorites. The Clippers are only shooting 43.9% from the field here at Staples Center. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-22-19 | Colorado State v. Wyoming OVER 50.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The annual "Border War" between Colorado State and Wyoming is renewed Friday night. Despite being in different states, the schools are just 65 miles apart. Wyoming is CSU's most common opponent with Rams holding 58-47-5 all-time series edge. But the Cowboys have won three years in a row, including 34-21 in Ft. Collins last season. Colorado State comes into Friday needing to win its last two games to get bowl eligible. That's probably not going to happen as next week they face Boise State, whom they've never beaten. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be expecting some fireworks out of the Rams this week. Last Saturday night at Air Force, Colorado State had an early 14-0 lead. But they couldn't hold on and ended up not even covering due to a late pick-six that made the final score 34-21 in Air Force's favor. It was the fewest points scored by the Rams since facing the tough defense of San Diego State. Turnovers were also costly for Wyoming last week as they had four of them in a 26-21 loss at Utah State. The good news for the Cowboys is this game is at home where they are 5-0 and averaging 33 points. Wyoming lost its starting QB (Sean Chambers) a few weeks ago and has a pretty stout defense. That may lead some to believe that Under is the correct call here. But you can look for the Cowboys to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. CSU gives up 206.7 rush yards per game. Wyoming averages 220 rush yards per game. Both teams will find ways to score here. Play OVER Colorado State-Wyoming AAA |
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11-22-19 | Spurs +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio is a league worst 2-12-1 ATS. But at some point that record has to improve. With the team struggling, expect them to be an underdog on a pretty regular basis moving forward. That sounds pretty simplistic, but they've only been a dog four times so far. The Spurs are an underdog tonight in Philadelphia. The Sixers also haven't exactly been tearing it up for bettors as they are just 1-5 ATS their previous six games. Two nights ago, they beat the Knicks by only five points. They trailed in that game by as much as 17. Not only has San Antonio not been covering, they haven't been winning either. They bring a 7-game losing streak to the City of Brotherly Love. Most of the losses have been close though. This is the front end of a back to back for both teams. Philly is 1-5 ATS this year against teams that have losing records. San Antonio is more desperate and we should see the underdog role suit them well when it comes to ATS results. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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11-22-19 | Heat -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI Miami has quietly been one of the better teams in the league this year. They are 10-3 while outscoring teams by 8.5 points per game. The only teams with a better point differential this year are the Lakers and Bucks. Winners of four in a row, the Heat rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Chicago can't measure up to any of those numbers, although they did just win a game by 20 points. But it was against the Pistons, who have really been struggling of late. Miami also recently beat Detroit as part of its four-game run. The Heat have shot better than every other team in the league thus far, making 48.2% from the field. Don't expect the Bulls to play the same kind of defense here that they did vs. the Pistons. That was only the second time they've held an opponent under 100 points. Miami has won 8 of its last 10 and all eight wins have come by at least nine points. They are 9-2 ATS overall this season and 6-0 as a favorite! Play on MIAMI AAA |
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11-22-19 | Western Michigan +18.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN There are 53 College Basketball teams still without a loss. Of the 53, there are 45 at 4-0 or better. One of them is Oklahoma State, who is in action tonight and laying a big number against Western Michigan. This will be the biggest number the Cowboys have had to lay this season and they're facing a team that's lost only one time in five tries. OSU has had two close calls so far. They won by just five points against Oral Roberts and by only seven against Yale, the latter win coming earlier this week. The other two games were comfortable victories over Missouri-KC and College of Charleston, though it should be pointed out the final margins of victory (18 and 19 points) were pretty close to what they are laying tonight.Western Michigan didn't fare too well in its only other game against a Power Conference foe. They lost by 27 at Ole Miss, but count on them playing better here. The Broncos shot just 33.9 percent down in Oxford while missing 27 of 32 three-point attempts. They are better than that offensively. They've scored at least 75 in every other game.The fact OSU has not won a game by more than 19 points should automatically make you hesitant to lay this number. This is a team that finished last season at 12-20 and isn't going to score many points on a regular basis. We'll take the points. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-21-19 | Jets v. Stars -154 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS We took the Stars Tuesday night, a game which they ended up beating Vancouver 6-1. They are now 8-0-1 the last nine games. Tonight, they get a chance to avenge that one loss as they face off with Winnipeg. It was a 3-2 Jets win in overtime the last time these teams met. Winnipeg has now managed to go 10-1-1 in one goal games this year. They just beat Nashville 2-1 on Tuesday. While they were up the whole game, it's still a one-goal win. Our view is that the Jets have been more lucky than good. They were outshot by the Predators 39-25. The Stars started the year 1-7-1. That's now a distant memory as they are 11-1-1 since. The key to the resurgence has been defense/goaltending. In eight of those last 13 games, they've allowed just one goal. That has allowed them to move up to #2 in the league in goals allowed. Only Arizona allows fewer. Dallas is also 64-31 the last 95 times it has been a home favorite of -151 to -200. Winnipeg is 29-65 the last 94 times it has been a road underdog of +151 to +200. So, as you might have guessed from a line such as this, the trends (and odds) are in the Stars favor. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Texans come into this game sporting the same 6-4 record as the Colts and a near identical point differential. Everything seemed to be going fine in Houston, that was until they ran into Baltimore last week and lost 41-7. That loss may leave a bad taste in a lot of bettors' mouths, but it is important to remember that it was just "one game." One game on the road, against a very good team. It was the first time in QB Deshaun Watson's pro or college career that he lost a game by double digits. It was also the first time this season that Houston failed to score in the first half. The Texans had won four of five before being blown out by the Ravens. That one loss was the Colts, so if Houston needed any more motivation coming into Thursday, they've got it. Remember the Texans were eliminated by the Colts in the playoffs last year as well. They've lost three straight times to them overall. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year. While quarterback Jacoby Brissett returning for the Colts was a welcome sight last week, the real key in the team's 33-13 win over Jacksonville was having two 100+ yard rushers. One of them (Marlon Mack) injured his hand though and he'll miss this game. The defense of the Texans has been great at stopping the run anyway (before facing Baltimore). They allow just 87 yards rushing per game at home. The Colts won't run wild in this game. The Texans have not lost back to back games this season. They should rebound nicely on TNF. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-21-19 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -2 | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GEORGIA TECH It seems as if ESPN and College Football have conceded Thursday night to the NFL this week as they present a rather unappealing matchup between NC State and Georgia Tech. But sometimes these kind of matchups produce the most value. We see value on the home side in Atlanta. Little was expected from Georgia Tech coming into the 2019 season. They have certainly delivered on those low expectations with a 2-8 record. The reason for those low expectations was the transition from the triple option to a pro-style offense. The Yellow Jackets had started to show signs of improvement, but then ran into a buzzsaw known as Virginia Tech last week. The less said about the 45-0 loss, the better. NC State isn't exactly tearing it up either. Four straight losses where they've allowed 178 points is an ugly stretch, no matter how you want to look at it. The Wolfpack are also allowing 456.3 yards per game during the same four-game span. This is a horrendous defensive output, one that should allow for Georgia Tech to have perhaps its best offensive game of the season. It's been five years since we've seen a NC State-Georgia Tech matchup. The Yellow Jackets are 12-3 the last 15 meetings and have gone 15-2 the last 17 games against the ACC's Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech was embarrassed last week. We can't see it happening for a second straight week at home. It's telling that they are the favorite here. NC State's defense is so bad right now that they simply can't be trusted to cover a game, even if they still have a chance to be bowl eligible. Play on GEORGIA TECH AAA |
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11-20-19 | Portland v. Portland State -6 | Top | 82-75 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND STATE This battle for Portland supremacy finds the home team undervalued. This is likely due to the visitor's 3-0 ATS record that includes two covers as an underdog. Host Portland State just played a couple of tough road games. They were underdogs at Indiana and Hawaii and lost both. But a return home should be what the doctor ordered. The Vikings have won this matchup two years in a row including 87-78 last year as a 6.5-point favorite. Portland's two previous road trips were to USC and San Jose State. They upset the latter. Saturday saw them beat Maine 71-62 as a 7.5-point favorite. Despite having superior defensive numbers compared to tonight's opponent, that is a bit misleading. It's owed to holding Wilmette College to 19.7% in the first game. Prior to the upset of San Jose State, the Pilots had lost 22 of 25 road games. Portland State is 21-9 straight up its last 30 home games including 5-0 when favored in the range of -6.5 to -9. Play on PORTLAND STATE AAA |
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11-20-19 | Capitals -180 v. Rangers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -180 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 7* on WASHINGTON The Rangers look to be in some severe trouble here. They have been giving up a lot of goals lately (including NINE in one game last week) and now must face Washington, who leads the league in goals scored. This likely doesn't end well for the home team. The Capitals have won 13 of their last 16 games with two of the losses coming in overtime. They put up a 5-spot on Anaheim Monday night, a game they led 4-0 five minutes into the third period. The result was never really in doubt there. The result was also never really in doubt when the Capitals beat the Rangers 5-2 last month. They've now beaten NY eight of the last nine times they've played them. The Rangers have given up seven power play goals the last two games. Washington's power play percentage of 24.3 ranks among the five best in the league. The Caps are 10-1-1 on the road this year. The Rangers are just giving up so many shots lately that it's difficult to imagine Washington not scoring a lot of goals here tonight. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-20-19 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 221.5 | Top | 94-142 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It sure feels odd to call Golden State the "worst team in the league." But at 3-12, that's what they are. Injuries have obviously played a major role. Seven players sat out last night's game! But the Warriors still won, beating a bad Memphis team 114-95. That put an end to a seven-game losing streak. Unfortunately, they've got to come back and play again tonight. The Warriors can't count on Dallas shooting as poorly as Memphis did last night. Besides all the injuries, horrendous defense is the other big reason for the Warriors decline. They allow 117.4 points/game, which is bottom five in the league. They are second to last in defensive efficiency. Golden State's last three opponents have all shot the ball poorly, but that is not likely to be the case here with a Dallas team that comes in sporting the highest offensive efficiency in the league. The Mavs average 114.1 points/game. This will be the third time that the Warriors have been an underdog of at least 12.5 points. The first two games both went Over. Play OVER Golden State-Dallas AAA |
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11-20-19 | Akron +31.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Let's hold our nose and try again with Akron, who is the only team in the country without win this year (0-10). The Zips are also the only team without a single ATS win (0-10 ATS). But this is a tremendous amount of points to be getting against a Miami team that has nothing to play for these next two weeks. Miami clinched the MAC East with a 44-3 beatdown of Bowling Green last Wednesday. They now are in the unique spot of just waiting for the MAC Title Game. At 6-4, they are already bowl eligible. It's just about staying healthy for the MAC Championship Game at this point. There have been two times in the last three seasons that the RedHawks have been favored by at least 31 points. They won both, obviously. But they didn't cover either time. Both games were against FCS teams. You'd have to go back a long way to find the last time Miami was favored by this many in conference play. Even though Akron is the worst team in the country, they're still "only" losing by 26 points/game. An "average" loss would have them inside the number tonight. This is the most points they've gotten in any game all season. Believe it or not, the Zips have never closed higher than +21.5. Last year marked the first time in seven tries that Miami beat Akron by more than a touchdown. They'll have no interest in covering this huge number tonight. Play on AKRON AAA |
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11-19-19 | Suns v. Kings -2 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO When these teams opened the season against one another, the Suns would prevail in one-sided fashion, 124-95 as a 1-point home favorite. That was the first of seven consecutive covers by Phoenix to start the year. But a lot has changed since then. The Suns are now just 2-3 SU and ATS since that 7-game ATS win streak. They lost last night at home to Boston, getting held to a season-low 85 points. At no point in the second half were they closer than nine points. Another thing that has changed from the first time around is Sacramento's play. They started 0-5 SU and ATS but have gone 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in November. They just beat Boston on Sunday, 100-99. They did so without De'Aaron Fox or Marvin Bagley Jr. The Celtics had won 10 in a row going into that game and are now obviously 11-1 their last 12 after being the Suns yesterday. Two absences on the Phoenix side are huge here. Deandre Ayton, who was last year's top draft pick, is suspended. Ricky Rubio was a late scratch last night due to back spasms and the offense did not look the same without him running the show. With the Suns in a back to back, the situation is much better for the Kings tonight. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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11-19-19 | Montana State +6 v. Grand Canyon | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTANA STATE Montana State has covered all of its games this year while Grand Canyon hasn't covered any. That makes this line pretty strange. We're not saying the home team shouldn't be favored, but giving this many points is a definite reach in our estimation. Montana State (4-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) has been winning games close and in low-scoring fashion, but that still makes them a dangerous dog. Their only loss was by eight to a Utah State team that is now ranked 14th the country. Since that loss, the Bobcats have given up an average of 55.2 points/game. Their last win was against Tennessee Tech and they allowed only 39 points! Needless to say, if this string of impressive defensive efforts continues tonight, it'll mean an easy cover and they'll probably take the game outright. Grand Canyon is 1-3 and has lost to a Division II team (Davenport University) here at home. They just won for the first time this season, beating Arkansas Pine-Bluff 67-54, but they were favored by 15.5 points. Not a good start for the Antelopes. An area where they are really struggling is behind the three-point arc. There they are shooting just 25.0% in four games. That's trouble seeing how well Montana State has defended so far. The Bobcats have allowed just 25% three-point shooting. Bad line set by the oddsmakers in this one. Play on MONTANA STATE AAA |
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11-19-19 | Hurricanes -117 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAROLINA Two hot teams are set to meet in the Windy City. Carolina comes in on a three-game win streak. Chicago has won four in a row. Both teams have scored plenty of goals during the respective win streaks. The Hurricanes have found the back of the net 17 times in the last three games while the Blackhawks have scored 21 goals in four games. This has the makings of another high-scoring affair, but we think only one side is likely to hold up its end of the bargain. There was a meeting in Raleigh earlier this year, which the Canes won 4-0. Since then, a decision was made by Chicago to "go young" i.e. putting several of its prospects in prominent positions. It's worked so far, but it's long-term effect is still unknown. Both teams have given up 59 goals in 20 games. But Carolina has scored nine more times than Chicago this year (70 vs. 61). The Hurricanes also allow far less shots per game. They allow the third fewest number of shots in the league. Chicago allows the most. Carolina is the call here. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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11-19-19 | Canucks v. Stars -129 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS Vancouver has cooled off a lot. Their only win in the last seven games came at home. It was a 5-3 decision against Nashville exactly one week ago. As for Dallas, things have swung in a much different direction for them recently. They've gone 7-0-1 the last eight games and 10-1-1 the last 12. These teams just met in Vancouver with the Stars winning 4-2 as +130 underdogs. That was part of a 3-0 sweep through Western Canada for Dallas. They finished things off with a 5-4 overtime win against Edmonton on Saturday. Right now, everything seems to be going their way. Vancouver has actually won three straight times here in Dallas, but that's a streak we don't see continuing. The Canucks are 0-4 this season when seeking revenge for a home loss and 16-34 their last 50 in this situation. Dallas is 5-0 this year when playing on two days rest. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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11-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 45-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA STATE Iowa State hasn't had the easiest start to the year as they've already lost once (at Oregon State), but tonight vs. Southern Miss should be a blowout. The Cyclones last played one week ago today when they beat Northern Illinois 70-52 as a 14-point favorite. That was here in Ames as well. Southern Miss has lost two in a row, both close games on the road. They lost six to South Alabama and then by three to North Florida. While the Golden Eagles still covered the spread each time, tonight is a third straight road game and their toughest opponent to date. This hardly seems like a good spot for them. The Cyclones actually trailed Northern Illinois at halftime last Tuesday. But that was due to some truly awful three-point shooting and a lack of rebounding. Both issues were quickly rectified in the second half when they outscored their opponents 39-18. We look for more of a "full game effort" tonight. ISU may be a young team, but they aren't turning the ball over much. Only 12.5% of their offensive possessions have ended in a turnover. That's 7th best in the country. Meanwhile, 22.5% of Southern Miss possessions end in a turnover. That's a bad number. Don't look for Iowa State to shoot 12.5% from three-point range again like they did in the last game. They should win quite comfortably tonight. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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11-18-19 | Southern Utah v. UCLA -10.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA Southern Utah already notched one upset this year, that being a 79-78 double overtime win at Nebraska. The Thunderbirds followed that up with a cover in BYU as they lost by only five points as a double digit dog. That was their 10th straight ATS win in the month of November going back two years. That streak ends tonight. The upset of Nebraska saw Southern Utah come back from a rather sizable deficit in the second half. They relied on some terrible shooting by the Cornhuskers to win that game. But it was their own poor shooting that cost them against BYU. The Thunderbirds missed all 12 three-point attempts they took in Provo. This will be Southern Utah's third straight road game and the tank could be closing in on empty. UCLA has yet to leave campus and has looked progressively better with each passing game. On Friday, they beat UNLV 71-54 as an eight-point favorite. The Bruins have a new head coach this year (Mick Cronin) and a new lease on life. They led by UNLV by 24 in the first half Friday. You knew Cronin would improve the defense here and UCLA has yet to allow more than 65 points. Play on UCLA AAA |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC It seems logical that Kansas City would bounce back in this spot. They are off a loss in which they outgained the opponent (Tennessee) 530-371. They had nine more first downs than the Titans in that game. But they also had two late-game field goal snafus that ended up costing them dearly. We don't think we'll be seeing those same kind of mistakes tonight in Estadio Azteca as the NFL once again heads to Mexico City. The Chargers are also off a close loss, theirs coming to the Raiders last Thursday. Again, costly miscues were the culprit as they finished the game -3 in turnover margin. One of the turnovers was an INT return for touchdown and that was basically the difference in a 26-24 game. LA finished with more yards and first downs than Oakland, similar to KC in its loss to Tennessee. This one boils down to the fact the Chiefs are simply better. Patrick Mahomes showed no ill-effects from his injury, throwing for more than 400 yards last week. The Chargers, who only average 20.7 points/game, simply don't score enough to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs. Kansas City is 9-1 the last 10 meetings with Los Angeles and has covered 8 of the last 11. Same 'ol story "south of the border." Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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11-18-19 | Bucks -7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE With wins in seven of the last eight games, Milwaukee is definitely rolling right now. The just beat Indiana by 19 on the road Saturday night. That was their best defensive effort of the year, holding the Pacers to just 83 points. That was timely because their own point total of 102 happened to be a season-low. Scoring has not been an issue for the Bucks this year, however. They lead the league in points/game (118.8) thanks in large part to the same prolific three-point shooting we saw last year. The other good news is the Bucks are 7-3 ATS the last three seasons coming off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. These teams just played on Thursday with the Bucks winning 124-115. The Bulls were our *10* Game of the Month that night and cashed as 11.5-point underdogs. But we're switching course tonight as it seems very unlikely that Chicago will score that many points again. They are shooting just 40.9% in home games so far. It's now two straight losses for the Bulls as they just fell to a Brooklyn team that didn't have Kyrie Irving or Caris LeVert. Despite those absences, the Bulls still gave up 117 points. That's a bad sign for tonight. Milwaukee has covered its last four games in Chicago. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams OVER 40 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -100 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER The Rams offense may not be what it was last year, but this total is too low. When they faced the Bears last year, oddsmakers had the total at 50.5. That's a big change in one year's time. Now Bears fans will certainly want to point out what their defense did to the Rams last year. They held them to a season-low 6 points in an impressive primetime victory. But just like the Rams offense, the Bears defense doesn't seem to be what it was a year ago. When they're not facing one of the league's elite defenses, the Rams still do pretty well. A few weeks ago, asking the offense to break 20 points would have seemed like the easiest thing in the world. The Over is 5-2 when the Rams are off an ATS loss. This is the lowest total for any Rams game in the Sean McVay era. That matters. There have only been three at 43 points or less, all of which occurred in the first six weeks of his tenure, and the Over was 3-0 in those games. The Bears offense is pretty bad, but even it scored 20 points last week. Getting to at least 17 this week seems realistic. Play OVER Chicago-LA Rams AAA |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +4 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA You probably remember the last time the Patriots played the Eagles. It was in the Super Bowl two years ago and they lost a memorable game, 41-33, as Doug Pederson was able to do what few have done and that's outcoach Bill Belichick. We'd be kidding ourselves to think that Super Bowl loss won't be on the mind of the Patriots Sunday. But so will a more recent defeat, the one that occurred two weeks ago in Baltimore. It was the first defeat of the year for New England and they pretty well got their "lunch" handed to them by the Ravens, losing 37-20. Before that, the Patriots defense had been unbelievable. But they've also faced a weak slate of opponents: the Jets twice, Miami, Washington and the Giants to name a few. Philly is also coming off a bye week, so no advantage for the Patriots there. Before their bye, Philly had won two straight and looked like a team that could win the NFC East. Carson Wentz may not have Alshon Jeffrey at his disposal this week, but he still has TE Zack Ertz and New England's defense struggles to defend tight ends. Ertz had nine catches for 103 yards two weeks ago against Chicago. The Eagles offense can also run the ball effectively. How about the Philadelphia defense? The last two games have seen them give up just 27 points and 417 yards. Grab the points here with the home dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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11-17-19 | CS-Northridge v. Richmond -14 | Top | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on RICHMOND Cal State Northridge is having a terrible start to the season. The Matadors are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The losses have gotten progressively uglier with the latest coming by 46 points against Auburn. They gave up 116 points in that one. So Richmond has to be licking its chops coming into Sunday. The Spiders are 2-0, though those two wins couldn't have been much closer. They beat St. Francis (PA) by two (100-98) and Vanderbilt by one (93-92). Both games went to overtime! The Spiders are going to have to score a lot to cover the spread this afternoon and we think they will. So far they have shot the ball very well. CS-Northridge plays little in the way of defense. CS-Northridge's opponents have shot 53.1% so far. At the same time, they haven't shot very well themselves. This is simply a bad basketball team. These teams have combined to go 0-6 ATS, but it's pretty obvious which is better. All five Richmond starters are averaging more than 10 points/game. Off two tough wins, this will be among the Spiders easiest games of the season. Play RICHMOND AAA |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -109 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER New Orleans just suffered what has to be the most shocking loss of the NFL season. As a two-touchdown favorite, they fell 26-9 to the Falcons last week. That was at home. They were dominated. Coming off a loss like that, you figure the Saints will be eager to take the field this week. But they are traveling to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that all of a sudden has some confidence following a last minute win over Arizona. Drew Brees is back but this Saints offense doesn't seem right. Last week was the 4th game this year in which they were held to 13 points or less. Some of that was with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But slow starts have been the norm. New Orleans has scored just 25 points in the 1st quarter this year. Eventually that's going to catch up with them. It certainly did last week. Tampa Bay's last seven games have all gone Over. Some of them by a lot. But last week's only went Over when they scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The previous week's game went to overtime. The defense should get better this week with the return of CB Carlton Davis. Down a key offensive lineman (Andrus Peat), don't be shocked if the Saints again struggle to protect Brees. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is #1 in the league at stopping the run. But the Saints can probably count on their own defense in this game. They come in allowing just 20.2 points/game. Play UNDER New Orleans-Tampa Bay AAA |
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11-17-19 | Falcons +4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 29-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Atlanta recorded what has to be considered the upset of the year, beating New Orleans last week 26-9 as a 14-point underdog. The Falcons came into that game at 1-7 and had not covered since a Week 2 win against Philadelphia. Having now beaten the likes of Philadelphia and New Orleans, the Falcons should be taken seriously - even at 2-7. This might be a lost season. But the team isn't bad. It's simply underachieved. Consider that they have gained more yards than they've allowed this season! There was nothing fluky about the win in New Orleans either. What had previously been a non-existent pass rush even decided to show up as the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times. Carolina's defense has looked real shaky of late. They gave up 51 points to the 49ers a few weeks back and are allowing 25.3 points/game for the year. The last three games have seen them allow 516 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Despite having a better record than Atlanta, the Panthers (5-4) are being outgained this year. Matt Ryan has always had his way with Carolina, beating them 14 times in 22 tries. He and the Falcons are 6-1 the last seven meetings. Half of Atlanta's ATS victories the last two years have come in division games. Kyle Allen started to look like a backup in Carolina's 24-16 loss last week to Green Bay. Our guess is that his regression will continue. We'll take the points with the team that has the edge at QB. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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11-16-19 | USC -2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on USC USC is 3-0 and looking good for coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans have beaten each of their three opponents by at least 18 points. While this is the first road game of the season, they are favored to win in Reno and we like them to keep rolling. Nevada has already eaten a loss. It came in the first game (vs. Utah) where they were favored to win by four but fell 79-74. The Wolf Pack have since bounced back with wins over Loyola Marymount and UT-Arlington. But both wins were close, coming by five and seven points respectively. One key area where USC will have the edge tonight is offensive rebounding. The Trojans have posted an off rebounding percentage of 40.5 so far. That ranks 21st in the country. Nevada's offensive rebounding percentage of 18.6 ranks 283rd. Jalen Harris led Nevada with 24 points in the win Tuesday night over UT-Arlington. But he is still not 100% after missing most of the first two games with a foot injury. Against a team like USC, one of your best players not being completely healthy could be the difference. This is a revenge game for USC. They lost by 12 to Nevada last year at home. Poor three-point shooting is the reason they lost. But, as indicated by the pointspread, this year's squad is better. Play on USC AAA |
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11-16-19 | Blazers +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland is a small dog tonight in San Antonio. But it would appear as if the oddsmakers have failed to account for the fact that the Spurs are playing the second night of a back to back. This line would make sense were the home team rested. But they're not. The Blazers should be favored. Then there is the matter of what happened to the Spurs last night. Despite being up most of the game, they lost to Orlando 111-109. You just can't lose games where you have a 16-point lead ad shoot 50%. But the Spurs did just that. It was their 4th straight loss. For maybe the first time in Greg Popovich's tenure here, defense has become a major issue in San Antonio. The Spurs gave up 64 points to the Magic in the second half last night. They've allowed at least 112 points in five straight games.This is a revenge game for Portland, who lost 113-110 here in SA on October 28th. Both teams enjoyed a lead of 19 points in that game. The Blazers ended up covering as six-point underdogs. While the line isn't as high this time, that's irrelevant as the road team can clearly win outright here. Portland needs this one pretty badly as they've dropped six of seven. Carmelo Anthony won't be coming on board until Tuesday at the earliest. But the Blazers are well rested heading into Saturday (two days off) while the similarly struggling Spurs are not. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BAYLOR Baylor is 9-0, but they're also a home dog to Oklahoma this week. Not only that, they are a double-digit home dog. That's pretty rare territory for a team to be in. The only other time in the last 40 years that a 9-0 team was a home dog of at least 7 points was Notre Dame's famous upset of Florida State in 1993. Only six 9-0 or better teams have EVER been a home underdog. Four of the six wound up winning their games outright. It should be pointed out that 9-0 Minnesota is also an underdog this week, but they're playing on the road. Speaking of the Golden Gophers, they were in a pretty similar spot last week (were 8-0) vs. Penn State and won. Bottom line is you shouldn't be writing off these unbeatens just because you didn't expect them to be unbeaten at this point. Baylor has won plenty of close games this year. But they are also 6-0 ATS their last six games as an underdog, winning five of them straight up. Coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS in his career getting points and has won 16 of those games straight up. That includes 13-5 ATS as a home dog with seven straight up wins. Oklahoma's defense has been bad the last two games, giving up 48 and 41 points. They lost at Kansas State and then needed to stop an Iowa State 2-point try in the final minute to win last week. Baylor has allowed more than 21 points in regulation only two times all year. They can certainly win this game. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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11-16-19 | Stanford v. Washington State -10.5 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE The loser of this game is going to see their postseason hopes take a major hit. Both Stanford and Washington State enter at 4-5 meaning whomever loses here will then need to win out just to get to a bowl game. Fortunately for Wazzu, the game is in Pullman where they have lost only two times in the last three seasons. Once was last year's Apple Cup (vs. Washington). The other was earlier this season in that wild 67-63 game against UCLA. Stanford isn't about to score 27 points, let alone 67. Consider the Cardinal "offensively challenged" as they could manage only 13 points last week against a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. Stanford averages only 21.6 points/game and has been held below that average five times. Washington State has scored at least 30 in every Pac 12 game besides Utah and Cal, who are the league's two best defensive teams. In the last three years, Mike Leach's offense has put up 107 points on the Stanford defense. This year, the Cardinal are missing two key players in their secondary. Despite losing five of six, the Cougs are still a formidable group. They get back on track in a big way Saturday afternoon. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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11-16-19 | Hawaii v. UNLV UNDER 74.5 | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 48 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Hawaii games have seen a spike in scoring over the last month with five straight games going Over. Every one of those five games saw at least 79 total points scored. Oddsmakers have been slow playing catchup as not even an absurd 78.5 could keep the Warriors and San Jose State Under last week (Hawaii won 42-40). But this week should finally be the time where the scoring subsides. UNLV is the opponent this week. The Rebels don't have any chance of making a bowl and Tony Sanchez may be coaching his final games out in the desert. The Rebels just can't seem to put it together offensively. Six of the last eight games have seen them held to 17 points or less. If UNLV is held to anything close to 17 points this week, then this will be an easy Under. Hawaii can't go Over themselves. They've scored more than 45 points only one time in 2019. Hitting the mainland, we expect Hawaii's offense not to be as prolific as recent weeks. The home team is on a 9-1 run in the series and that includes a 35-28 Hawaii win in Honolulu last year. Four of the last five meetings have seen 72 points or less scored. UNLV is off a bye, but that hardly matters. They are going nowhere fast. Redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad isn't the answer at quarterback. Play UNDER Hawaii-Nevada AAA |
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11-16-19 | Central Michigan v. Ball State -2.5 | Top | 45-44 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BALL ST Sometimes, handicapping a particular matchup (in any sport) can come to down to one simple factor. In the case of this game, it's all about homefield advantage. Ball State has it and that should be enough for the Cardinals to move one step closer to being bowl eligible on Saturday afternoon. Lay this short number with confidence. Ball State comes in averaging 40.2 points in their four games at Scheumann Stadium. They lost their last time here, 34-21 to Ohio, so that right there should tell you what they did offensively in the other three. The 40.2 points/game scoring average is well above what the Cardinals average in road games (27.5 points/game). Again, homefield advantage matters. It matters not just for Ball State, but for Central Michigan as well. The Chippewas home vs. road split is even wider than their opposition's. While Central Michigan averages 43.0 points/game at home, they average just 17.0 points/game on the road. The Chippewas have lost four of their five road games this year. The win was over Bowling Green, who is 3-7. In the other three road games, Central Michigan scored 0, 12 and 15 points. Central Michigan is already bowl eligible. Ball State is not. The Cardinals need to win two of the next three games and could be underdogs in the next two. The Cardinals won in Mount Pleasant last year 24-23 as a two-point dog. Play on BALL STATE AAA |
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11-15-19 | California Baptist v. California -4.5 | Top | 62-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CALIFORNIA California went just 8-23 SU last season and finished last in the Pac 12 with a 3-15 conference record. But things are already looking much brighter in Berkeley this season. The Bears are off to a 2-0 start for new coach Mark Fox and now have an excellent shot at opening 3-0. On Tuesday, they were able to pick up an overtime win over UNLV. They won 79-75 as 3.5-point favorites. That was after we took them in the season opener when they delivered a "surprise" win over Pepperdine, 87-71 as two-point underdogs. As we stated before that Cal-Pepperdine game, the Bears were very likely to improve this season after "bottoming out" under former coach Wyking Jones. Matt Bradley looks like a superstar after scoring 48 points in the first two games. This team is so much better than it was the last two seasons. But the oddsmakers have not caught on yet. Cal Baptist has already played three times, winning twice. The loss came on Tuesday as they faced #25 Texas. The Lancers could score only 54 points against the Longhorns, a major change from the first two games when they scored 93 and 112 against lesser competition. CBU gets 42.9% of its total points from behind the three-point arc, which is a very high percentage. They likely won't be able to sustain that. The Lancers also don't play very good defense, ranking near the bottom of D-I in both block and steal rate. They covered against Texas because the Longhorns couldn't hit open threes. Won't be the case again here. Playing two straight on the road against big time teams is a little much for this underdog. Lay a number that's too short. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA |
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11-15-19 | Jazz -7 v. Grizzlies | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah fell behind by double digits against Brooklyn on Tuesday. While they were able to come back and win 119-114, they did not cover the 6.5-point spread. That was at home. Tonight the Jazz hit the road, but they are facing a weak opponent. Memphis is not a team you would expect to get out in front of the Jazz like Brooklyn was able to do. Thus, our automatic inclination here was to lay the points. While the Grizzlies have won two in a row, it's the first time that's been the case this year. In Wednesday's 119-117 win over Charlotte, they mounted their own comeback, rallying back from down 12 in the third quarter. But Memphis has not done well after allowing more than 115 points their previous game. They are just 1-5 ATS in this situation the last three seasons. Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league and has won four games in a row. They are allowing just 99.5 points/game. Memphis allows 118.8 points/game, which is fifth most in the league right now. This is a sizable mismatch. Play on UTAH AAA |